WorldWideScience

Sample records for global accumulations estimated

  1. The Global Economic Crisis and the Global Accumulation of Capital

    Wojciech Błasiak

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a thesis that the current global economic crisis is the Second Great Depression, after the First Great Depression of the 30s. This is a global crisis of capital accumulation, which is caused by insufficient global demand. The author analy - ses the theoretical output of John Maynard Keynes, Michał Kalecki, Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy. The post-war „Golden Age” of the capitalist economy ended in 1973 with a de - ep stag flation of the 70s and 80s. Capitals searching for profitable investment, started to be invested in financial speculation, growing since the 80s. This speculation was enabled on a global scale by the Washington Consensus in the 90s. The explosion of financializa - tion of the global economy began. The author presents the analyses of Paul Sweezy and Harry Magdoff, who argued that this was financialization of global accumulation of ca - pital in a form of world financial speculation. This process was completed by the finan - cial crash in 2008, which was the implosion of global speculative balloons. Economics and global economic policy faced challenges of creating new world economic order.

  2. Global Polynomial Kernel Hazard Estimation

    Hiabu, Munir; Miranda, Maria Dolores Martínez; Nielsen, Jens Perch

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a new bias reducing method for kernel hazard estimation. The method is called global polynomial adjustment (GPA). It is a global correction which is applicable to any kernel hazard estimator. The estimator works well from a theoretical point of view as it asymptotically redu...

  3. Accumulation and management in global historical perspective: An introduction

    Roberts, Lissa L.

    2014-01-01

    This essay introduces a special issue dedicated to the theme ‘accumulation and management in global historical perspective’. The concepts and practices of accumulation and management are explored in ways that work to de-center the history of science and empire. Particular attention is paid to four

  4. Global Warming Estimation from MSU

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

  5. Practical global oceanic state estimation

    Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

    2007-06-01

    The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

  6. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  7. Anisotropic Density Estimation in Global Illumination

    Schjøth, Lars

    2009-01-01

    Density estimation employed in multi-pass global illumination algorithms gives cause to a trade-off problem between bias and noise. The problem is seen most evident as blurring of strong illumination features. This thesis addresses the problem, presenting four methods that reduce both noise...

  8. Accumulating trade costs and competitiveness in global value chains

    Diakantoni, Antonia; Escaith, Hubert; Roberts, Michael; Verbeet, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs such as applied tariffs, transportation and insurance costs are amplified as they pass through the multiple production steps associated with modern supply chains. This so-called "cascade effect" arises since trade costs accumulate as intermediate goods are imported and then re-exported further downstream, going through different processing nodes before reaching the final consumer. Moreover, the financial impact of these trade costs is magnified in the "trade in tasks" rationale wh...

  9. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  10. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  11. Modern Estimates of Global Water Cycle Fluxes

    Rodell, M.; Beaudoing, H. K.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Olson, W. S.

    2014-12-01

    The goal of the first phase of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project was to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. Here we describe results of the water cycle assessment, including mean annual and monthly fluxes over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the water flux estimates are based on (1) satellite measurements and (2) data-integrating models. A careful accounting of uncertainty in each flux was applied within a routine that enforced multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework, in order to produce objectively-determined, optimized estimates. Simultaneous closure of the water and energy budgets caused the ocean evaporation and precipitation terms to increase by about 10% and 5% relative to the original estimates, mainly because the energy budget required turbulent heat fluxes to be substantially larger in order to balance net radiation. In the majority of cases, the observed annual, surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are a non-issue. Fluxes are poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian Islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Other details of the study and future directions will be discussed.

  12. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  13. Estimation of Bio-Accumulation by a Group Contribution Method

    Belhachem, B.; Canselier, J. P.

    2009-01-01

    The majority of organic pollutants, after their dispersion in water then their ingestion, have a strong tendency to accumulate in greases. That is due to the hydrophobic character of these molecules. To have an idea on the capacity of a substance to accumulate in the alive beings according to their lipidic mass, the modeling of the pollutant behaviour was made by considering its partition coefficient between n-octanol (representing the lipidic mass) and water. Its knowledge represents a very significant information for the petrochemical and the pharmaceutical industries. To dissipate any doubt about confidence concerning the obtained results, it is considered useful to check the effectiveness of UNIFAC method on the monomethylbenzoic acid such as, for example, the 3-methylbenzoic acid whose n-octanol-water partition coefficient is already listed in the literature.The small deviations observed between the n-octanol-water partition coefficients listed in the literature and the one calculated according UNIFAC method encouraged us to apply it in order to predict the n-octanol-water partition coefficient of the dimethylbenzoic acid. (author)

  14. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

    2012-12-01

    The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

  15. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory Falling Snow Estimates

    Skofronick Jackson, G.; Kulie, M.; Milani, L.; Munchak, S. J.; Wood, N.; Levizzani, V.

    2017-12-01

    Retrievals of falling snow from space represent an important data set for understanding and linking the Earth's atmospheric, hydrological, and energy cycles. Estimates of falling snow must be captured to obtain the true global precipitation water cycle, snowfall accumulations are required for hydrological studies, and without knowledge of the frozen particles in clouds one cannot adequately understand the energy and radiation budgets. This work focuses on comparing the first stable falling snow retrieval products (released May 2017) for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (GPM-CO), which was launched February 2014, and carries both an active dual frequency (Ku- and Ka-band) precipitation radar (DPR) and a passive microwave radiometer (GPM Microwave Imager-GMI). Five separate GPM-CO falling snow retrieval algorithm products are analyzed including those from DPR Matched (Ka+Ku) Scan, DPR Normal Scan (Ku), DPR High Sensitivity Scan (Ka), combined DPR+GMI, and GMI. While satellite-based remote sensing provides global coverage of falling snow events, the science is relatively new, the different on-orbit instruments don't capture all snow rates equally, and retrieval algorithms differ. Thus a detailed comparison among the GPM-CO products elucidates advantages and disadvantages of the retrievals. GPM and CloudSat global snowfall evaluation exercises are natural investigative pathways to explore, but caution must be undertaken when analyzing these datasets for comparative purposes. This work includes outlining the challenges associated with comparing GPM-CO to CloudSat satellite snow estimates due to the different sampling, algorithms, and instrument capabilities. We will highlight some factors and assumptions that can be altered or statistically normalized and applied in an effort to make comparisons between GPM and CloudSat global satellite falling snow products as equitable as possible.

  16. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    T. J. McDougall

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

    When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg−1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

    To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

  17. A generic model for estimating biomass accumulation and greenhouse gas emissions from perennial crops

    Ledo, Alicia; Heathcote, Richard; Hastings, Astley; Smith, Pete; Hillier, Jonathan

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture is essential to maintain humankind but is, at the same time, a substantial emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With a rising global population, the need for agriculture to provide secure food and energy supply is one of the main human challenges. At the same time, it is the only sector which has significant potential for negative emissions through the sequestration of carbon and offsetting via supply of feedstock for energy production. Perennial crops accumulate carbon during their lifetime and enhance organic soil carbon increase via root senescence and decomposition. However, inconsistency in accounting for this stored biomass undermines efforts to assess the benefits of such cropping systems when applied at scale. A consequence of this exclusion is that efforts to manage this important carbon stock are neglected. Detailed information on carbon balance is crucial to identify the main processes responsible for greenhouse gas emissions in order to develop strategic mitigation programs. Perennial crops systems represent 30% in area of total global crop systems, a considerable amount to be ignored. Furthermore, they have a major standing both in the bioenergy and global food industries. In this study, we first present a generic model to calculate the carbon balance and GHGs emissions from perennial crops, covering both food and bioenergy crops. The model is composed of two simple process-based sub-models, to cover perennial grasses and other perennial woody plants. The first is a generic individual based sub-model (IBM) covering crops in which the yield is the fruit and the plant biomass is an unharvested residue. Trees, shrubs and climbers fall into this category. The second model is a generic area based sub-model (ABM) covering perennial grasses, in which the harvested part includes some of the plant parts in which the carbon storage is accounted. Most second generation perennial bioenergy crops fall into this category. Both generic sub

  18. Review of the Palisades pressure vessel accumulated fluence estimate and of the least squares methodology employed

    Griffin, P.J.

    1998-05-01

    This report provides a review of the Palisades submittal to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requesting endorsement of their accumulated neutron fluence estimates based on a least squares adjustment methodology. This review highlights some minor issues in the applied methodology and provides some recommendations for future work. The overall conclusion is that the Palisades fluence estimation methodology provides a reasonable approach to a {open_quotes}best estimate{close_quotes} of the accumulated pressure vessel neutron fluence and is consistent with the state-of-the-art analysis as detailed in community consensus ASTM standards.

  19. Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Global Estimated Net Migration by Decade: 1970-2000 data set provides estimates of net migration over the three decades from 1970 to 2000. Because of the lack of...

  20. Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

    1998-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

  1. Estimation of the global regularity of a multifractional Brownian motion

    Lebovits, Joachim; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional Brownian motion at two different frequencies. We show that a ...... that a logarithmic transformation of this statistic converges in probability to the minimum of the Hurst functional parameter, which is, under weak assumptions, identical to the global regularity index of the path....

  2. Review of the Palisades pressure vessel accumulated fluence estimate and of the least squares methodology employed

    Griffin, P.J.

    1998-05-01

    This report provides a review of the Palisades submittal to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission requesting endorsement of their accumulated neutron fluence estimates based on a least squares adjustment methodology. This review highlights some minor issues in the applied methodology and provides some recommendations for future work. The overall conclusion is that the Palisades fluence estimation methodology provides a reasonable approach to a open-quotes best estimateclose quotes of the accumulated pressure vessel neutron fluence and is consistent with the state-of-the-art analysis as detailed in community consensus ASTM standards

  3. Model-based Estimation of Gas Leakage for Fluid Power Accumulators in Wind Turbines

    Liniger, Jesper; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; N. Soltani, Mohsen

    2017-01-01

    for accumulators, namely gas leakage. The method utilizes an Extended Kalman Filter for joint state and parameter estimation with special attention to limiting the use of sensors to those commonly used in wind turbines. The precision of the method is investigated on an experimental setup which allows for operation...... of the accumulator similar to the conditions in a turbine. The results show that gas leakage is indeed detectable during start-up of the turbine and robust behavior is achieved in a multi-fault environment where both gas and external fluid leakage occur simultaneously. The estimation precision is shown...... to be sensitive to initial conditions for the gas temperature and volume....

  4. Ecological significance of compatible solute accumulation by micro-organisms: from single cells to global climate.

    Welsh, D T

    2000-07-01

    The osmoadaptation of most micro-organisms involves the accumulation of K(+) ions and one or more of a restricted range of low molecular mass organic solutes, collectively termed 'compatible solutes'. These solutes are accumulated to high intracellular concentrations, in order to balance the osmotic pressure of the growth medium and maintain cell turgor pressure, which provides the driving force for cell extension growth. In this review, I discuss the alternative roles which compatible solutes may also play as intracellular reserves of carbon, energy and nitrogen, and as more general stress metabolites involved in protection of cells against other environmental stresses including heat, desiccation and freezing. Thus, the evolutionary selection for the accumulation of a specific compatible solute may not depend solely upon its function during osmoadaptation, but also upon the secondary benefits its accumulation provides, such as increased tolerance of other environmental stresses prevalent in the organism's niche or even anti-herbivory or dispersal functions in the case of dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). In the second part of the review, I discuss the ecological consequences of the release of compatible solutes to the environment, where they can provide sources of compatible solutes, carbon, nitrogen and energy for other members of the micro-flora. Finally, at the global scale the metabolism of specific compatible solutes (betaines and DMSP) in brackish water, marine and hypersaline environments may influence global climate, due to the production of the trace gases, methane and dimethylsulfide (DMS) and in the case of DMS, also couple the marine and terrestrial sulfur cycles.

  5. Incorporation of radiometric tracers in peat and implications for estimating accumulation rates

    Hansson, Sophia V., E-mail: sophia.hansson@emg.umu.se [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå (Sweden); Kaste, James M. [Geology Department, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187 (United States); Olid, Carolina; Bindler, Richard [Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE-901 87 Umeå (Sweden)

    2014-09-15

    Accurate dating of peat accumulation is essential for quantitatively reconstructing past changes in atmospheric metal deposition and carbon burial. By analyzing fallout radionuclides {sup 210}Pb, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 241}Am, and {sup 7}Be, and total Pb and Hg in 5 cores from two Swedish peatlands we addressed the consequence of estimating accumulation rates due to downwashing of atmospherically supplied elements within peat. The detection of {sup 7}Be down to 18–20 cm for some cores, and the broad vertical distribution of {sup 241}Am without a well-defined peak, suggest some downward transport by percolating rainwater and smearing of atmospherically deposited elements in the uppermost peat layers. Application of the CRS age–depth model leads to unrealistic peat mass accumulation rates (400–600 g m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}), and inaccurate estimates of past Pb and Hg deposition rates and trends, based on comparisons to deposition monitoring data (forest moss biomonitoring and wet deposition). After applying a newly proposed IP-CRS model that assumes a potential downward transport of {sup 210}Pb through the uppermost peat layers, recent peat accumulation rates (200–300 g m{sup −2} yr{sup −1}) comparable to published values were obtained. Furthermore, the rates and temporal trends in Pb and Hg accumulation correspond more closely to monitoring data, although some off-set is still evident. We suggest that downwashing can be successfully traced using {sup 7}Be, and if this information is incorporated into age–depth models, better calibration of peat records with monitoring data and better quantitative estimates of peat accumulation and past deposition are possible, although more work is needed to characterize how downwashing may vary between seasons or years. - Highlights: • {sup 210}Pb, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 241}Am and {sup 7}Be, and tot-Pb and tot Hg were measured in 5 peat cores. • Two age–depth models were applied resulting in different accumulation rates

  6. A New Estimate of North American Mountain Snow Accumulation From Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael T.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Zhang, Yu; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.

    2018-02-01

    Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1,006 km3, 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in nonmountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1,684 km3, 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain 60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.

  7. Illegal markets: Estimates of global proceeds

    Marinković Darko M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Illegal markets represent a phenomenon of considerable economic, political and social significance whose annual income exceeds the value of a thousand billion USD. Illegal market participants are beyond the reach of government institutions and rule of law while social connections and personal acquaintances play an important role of functional substitute. In the last decade there was a significant increase of illegal trafficking of narcotics, people, fire arms, counterfeit products and natural resources. Both selling and purchase of these as well as other kinds of products and services at illegal markets are generally characterized by high level of organization and presence of strong criminal groups and networks. Although these activities existed in the past their present scope and geographic distribution are without precedent. Measuring unlawful financial flows at illegal markets represents quite a complex task. Various estimates are the result of inexistence of uniform and generally accepted methodology. In addition to this, the special problem is also the consensus of market actors, because of which the phenomenon of illegal markets and distribution of products and services at these markets is rather hidden. The paper defines and analyzes the key features of illegal markets, the role of organized crime at illegal markets, as well as the estimates of the values of financial flows at the markets of counterfeit products, narcotics, and people as goods, or human organs and sexual services, weapons, tobacco products and dirty money.

  8. Global biodiversity loss: Exaggerated versus realistic estimates

    John C. Briggs

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, the public has been made to feel guilty about the tragedy of human-caused biodiversity loss due to the extinction of hundreds or thousands of species every year. Numerous articles and books from the scientific and popular press and publicity on the internet have contributed to a propaganda wave about our grievous loss and the beginning of a sixth mass extinction. However, within the past few years, questions have arisen about the validity of the data which led to the doom scenario. Here I show that, for the past 500 years, terrestrial animals (insects and vertebrates have been losing less than two species per year due to human causes. The majority of the extinctions have occurred on oceanic islands with little effect on continental ecology. In the marine environment, losses have also been very low. At the same time, speciation has continued to occur and biodiversity gain by this means may have equaled or even surpassed the losses. While species loss is not, so far, a global conservation problem, ongoing population declines within thousands of species that are at risk on land and in the sea constitute an extinction debt that will be paid unless those species can be rescued.

  9. Estimating cumulative soil accumulation rates with in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclide depth profiles

    Phillips, William M.

    2000-01-01

    A numerical model relating spatially averaged rates of cumulative soil accumulation and hillslope erosion to cosmogenic nuclide distribution in depth profiles is presented. Model predictions are compared with cosmogenic 21 Ne and AMS radiocarbon data from soils of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico. Rates of soil accumulation and hillslope erosion estimated by cosmogenic 21 Ne are significantly lower than rates indicated by radiocarbon and regional soil-geomorphic studies. The low apparent cosmogenic erosion rates are artifacts of high nuclide inheritance in cumulative soil parent material produced from erosion of old soils on hillslopes. In addition, 21 Ne profiles produced under conditions of rapid accumulation (>0.1 cm/a) are difficult to distinguish from bioturbated soil profiles. Modeling indicates that while 10 Be profiles will share this problem, both bioturbation and anomalous inheritance can be identified with measurement of in situ-produced 14 C

  10. Novel Direction Of Arrival Estimation Method Based on Coherent Accumulation Matrix Reconstruction

    Li Lei

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Based on coherent accumulation matrix reconstruction, a novel Direction Of Arrival (DOA estimation decorrelation method of coherent signals is proposed using a small sample. First, the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR is improved by performing coherent accumulation operation on an array of observed data. Then, according to the structure characteristics of the accumulated snapshot vector, the equivalent covariance matrix, whose rank is the same as the number of array elements, is constructed. The rank of this matrix is proved to be determined just by the number of incident signals, which realize the decorrelation of coherent signals. Compared with spatial smoothing method, the proposed method performs better by effectively avoiding aperture loss with high-resolution characteristics and low computational complexity. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

  11. WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Cawthorne, Amy; Angulo, Fred

    2013-01-01

    BackgroundThe public health impact of foodborne diseases globally is unknown. The WHO Initiative to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases was launched out of the need to fill this data gap. It is anticipated that this effort will enable policy makers and other stakeholders to set...... appropriate, evidence-informed priorities in the area of food safety. MethodsThe Initiative aims to provide estimates on the global burden of foodborne diseases by age, sex, and region; strengthen country capacity for conducting burden of foodborne disease assessments in parallel with food safety policy...

  12. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  13. Estimating prevalence of accumulated HIV-1 drug resistance in a cohort of patients on antiretroviral therapy

    Bannister, Wendy P; Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Kjær, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the prevalence of accumulated HIV drug resistance in patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult due to lack of resistance testing at all occasions of virological failure and in patients with undetectable viral load. A method to estimate this for 6498 EuroSIDA patients...... who were under follow-up on ART at 1 July 2008 was therefore developed by imputing data on patients with no prior resistance test results, based on the probability of detecting resistance in tested patients with similar profiles....

  14. Estimating the Cross-Shelf Export of Riverine Materials: Part 2. Estimates of Global Freshwater and Nutrient Export

    Izett, Jonathan G.; Fennel, Katja

    2018-02-01

    Rivers deliver large amounts of fresh water, nutrients, and other terrestrially derived materials to the coastal ocean. Where inputs accumulate on the shelf, harmful effects such as hypoxia and eutrophication can result. In contrast, where export to the open ocean is efficient riverine inputs contribute to global biogeochemical budgets. Assessing the fate of riverine inputs is difficult on a global scale. Global ocean models are generally too coarse to resolve the relatively small scale features of river plumes. High-resolution regional models have been developed for individual river plume systems, but it is impractical to apply this approach globally to all rivers. Recently, generalized parameterizations have been proposed to estimate the export of riverine fresh water to the open ocean (Izett & Fennel, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667; Sharples et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005483). Here the relationships of Izett and Fennel, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667 are used to derive global estimates of open-ocean export of fresh water and dissolved inorganic silicate, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen. We estimate that only 15-53% of riverine fresh water reaches the open ocean directly in river plumes; nutrient export is even less efficient because of processing on continental shelves. Due to geographic differences in riverine nutrient delivery, dissolved silicate is the most efficiently exported to the open ocean (7-56.7%), while dissolved inorganic nitrogen is the least efficiently exported (2.8-44.3%). These results are consistent with previous estimates and provide a simple way to parameterize export to the open ocean in global models.

  15. Estimates of global cyanobacterial biomass and its distribution

    Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Belnap, Jayne; Neuer, Susanne; Schanz, Ferdinand

    2003-01-01

    We estimated global cyanobacterial biomass in the main reservoirs of cyanobacteria on Earth: marine and freshwater plankton, arid land soil crusts, and endoliths. Estimates were based on typical population density values as measured during our research, or as obtained from literature surveys, which were then coupled with data on global geographical area coverage. Among the marine plankton, the global biomass of Prochlorococcus reaches 120 × 1012 grams of carbon (g C), and that of Synechoccus some 43 × 1012 g C. This makes Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, in that order, the most abundant cyanobacteria on Earth. Tropical marine blooms of Trichodesmium account for an additional 10 × 1012 g C worldwide. In terrestrial environments, the mass of cyanobacteria in arid land soil crusts is estimated to reach 54 × 1012 g C and that of arid land endolithic communities an additional 14 × 1012 g C. The global biomass of planktic cyanobacteria in lakes is estimated to be around 3 × 1012 g C. Our conservative estimates, which did not include some potentially significant biomass reservoirs such as polar and subarctic areas, topsoils in subhumid climates, and shallow marine and freshwater benthos, indicate that the total global cyanobacterial biomass is in the order of 3 × 1014 g C, surpassing a thousand million metric tons (1015 g) of wet biomass.

  16. Global stereo matching algorithm based on disparity range estimation

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Gu, Feifei

    2017-09-01

    The global stereo matching algorithms are of high accuracy for the estimation of disparity map, but the time-consuming in the optimization process still faces a curse, especially for the image pairs with high resolution and large baseline setting. To improve the computational efficiency of the global algorithms, a disparity range estimation scheme for the global stereo matching is proposed to estimate the disparity map of rectified stereo images in this paper. The projective geometry in a parallel binocular stereo vision is investigated to reveal a relationship between two disparities at each pixel in the rectified stereo images with different baselines, which can be used to quickly obtain a predicted disparity map in a long baseline setting estimated by that in the small one. Then, the drastically reduced disparity ranges at each pixel under a long baseline setting can be determined by the predicted disparity map. Furthermore, the disparity range estimation scheme is introduced into the graph cuts with expansion moves to estimate the precise disparity map, which can greatly save the cost of computing without loss of accuracy in the stereo matching, especially for the dense global stereo matching, compared to the traditional algorithm. Experimental results with the Middlebury stereo datasets are presented to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

  17. Estimation of radiation hazard of global 85Kr

    Vasilenko, I.Ya.; Moskalev, Yu.I.; Istomina, A.G.

    1979-01-01

    The data on sources and levels of the 85 Kr biosphere contamination are presented on the basis of generalization and analysis of literature. The potential irradiation doses for people are calculated and the biological estimation of the hazard of 85 Kr accumulation in the atmosphere up to 2050 is given taking into account the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering. The basis of the estimation is the radionuclide blastomogeneous and genetic effect. The conclusion is made that the prospects for development of nuclear power engineering do not lead to any sufficient increase in the number of malignant tumors and genetic abnormalities caused by 85 Kr radiation comparing with their natural frequency

  18. A Global Geospatial Ecosystem Services Estimate of Urban Agriculture

    Clinton, Nicholas; Stuhlmacher, Michelle; Miles, Albie; Uludere Aragon, Nazli; Wagner, Melissa; Georgescu, Matei; Herwig, Chris; Gong, Peng

    2018-01-01

    Though urban agriculture (UA), defined here as growing of crops in cities, is increasing in popularity and importance globally, little is known about the aggregate benefits of such natural capital in built-up areas. Here, we introduce a quantitative framework to assess global aggregate ecosystem services from existing vegetation in cities and an intensive UA adoption scenario based on data-driven estimates of urban morphology and vacant land. We analyzed global population, urban, meteorological, terrain, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) datasets in Google Earth Engine to derive global scale estimates, aggregated by country, of services provided by UA. We estimate the value of four ecosystem services provided by existing vegetation in urban areas to be on the order of 33 billion annually. We project potential annual food production of 100-180 million tonnes, energy savings ranging from 14 to 15 billion kilowatt hours, nitrogen sequestration between 100,000 and 170,000 tonnes, and avoided storm water runoff between 45 and 57 billion cubic meters annually. In addition, we estimate that food production, nitrogen fixation, energy savings, pollination, climate regulation, soil formation and biological control of pests could be worth as much as 80-160 billion annually in a scenario of intense UA implementation. Our results demonstrate significant country-to-country variability in UA-derived ecosystem services and reduction of food insecurity. These estimates represent the first effort to consistently quantify these incentives globally, and highlight the relative spatial importance of built environments to act as change agents that alleviate mounting concerns associated with global environmental change and unsustainable development.

  19. Estimating current and future global urban domestic material consumption

    Baynes, Timothy Malcolm; Kaviti Musango, Josephine

    2018-06-01

    Urban material resource requirements are significant at the global level and these are expected to expand with future urban population growth. However, there are no global scale studies on the future material consumption of urban areas. This paper provides estimates of global urban domestic material consumption (DMC) in 2050 using three approaches based on: current gross statistics; a regression model; and a transition theoretic logistic model. All methods use UN urban population projections and assume a simple ‘business-as-usual’ scenario wherein historical aggregate trends in income and material flow continue into the future. A collation of data for 152 cities provided a year 2000 world average DMC/capita estimate, 12 tons/person/year (±22%), which we combined with UN population projections to produce a first-order estimation of urban DMC at 2050 of ~73 billion tons/year (±22%). Urban DMC/capita was found to be significantly correlated (R 2 > 0.9) to urban GDP/capita and area per person through a power law relation used to obtain a second estimate of 106 billion tons (±33%) in 2050. The inelastic exponent of the power law indicates a global tendency for relative decoupling of direct urban material consumption with increasing income. These estimates are global and influenced by the current proportion of developed-world cities in the global population of cities (and in our sample data). A third method employed a logistic model of transitions in urban DMC/capita with regional resolution. This method estimated global urban DMC to rise from approximately 40 billion tons/year in 2010 to ~90 billion tons/year in 2050 (modelled range: 66–111 billion tons/year). DMC/capita across different regions was estimated to converge from a range of 5–27 tons/person/year in the year 2000 to around 8–17 tons/person/year in 2050. The urban population does not increase proportionally during this period and thus the global average DMC/capita increases from ~12 to ~14 tons

  20. Estimating the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy

    Waddington‐Cruz, Márcia; Botteman, Marc F.; Carter, John A.; Chopra, Avijeet S.; Hopps, Markay; Stewart, Michelle; Fallet, Shari; Amass, Leslie

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction: This study sought to estimate the global prevalence of transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTR‐FAP). Methods: Prevalence estimates and information supporting prevalence calculations was extracted from records yielded by reference‐database searches (2005–2016), conference proceedings, and nonpeer reviewed sources. Prevalence was calculated as prevalence rate multiplied by general population size, then extrapolated to countries without prevalence estimates but with reported cases. Results: Searches returned 3,006 records; 1,001 were fully assessed and 10 retained, yielding prevalence for 10 “core” countries, then extrapolated to 32 additional countries. ATTR‐FAP prevalence in core countries, extrapolated countries, and globally was 3,762 (range 3639–3884), 6424 (range, 1,887–34,584), and 10,186 (range, 5,526–38,468) persons, respectively. Discussion: The mid global prevalence estimate (10,186) approximates the maximum commonly accepted estimate (5,000–10,000). The upper limit (38,468) implies potentially higher prevalence. These estimates should be interpreted carefully because contributing evidence was heterogeneous and carried an overall moderate risk of bias. This highlights the requirement for increasing rare‐disease epidemiological assessment and clinician awareness. Muscle Nerve 57: 829–837, 2018 PMID:29211930

  1. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    J. Lang (Jens); J.G. Verwer (Jan)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based onthe adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  2. On global error estimation and control for initial value problems

    Lang, J.; Verwer, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract. This paper addresses global error estimation and control for initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. The focus lies on a comparison between a novel approach based on the adjoint method combined with a small sample statistical initialization and the classical approach

  3. Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in ...

    Empirical Models for the Estimation of Global Solar Radiation in Yola, Nigeria. ... and average daily wind speed (WS) for the interval of three years (2010 – 2012) measured using various instruments for Yola of recorded data collected from the Center for Atmospheric Research (CAR), Anyigba are presented and analyzed.

  4. Estimating the true global burden of mental illness.

    Vigo, Daniel; Thornicroft, Graham; Atun, Rifat

    2016-02-01

    We argue that the global burden of mental illness is underestimated and examine the reasons for under-estimation to identify five main causes: overlap between psychiatric and neurological disorders; the grouping of suicide and self-harm as a separate category; conflation of all chronic pain syndromes with musculoskeletal disorders; exclusion of personality disorders from disease burden calculations; and inadequate consideration of the contribution of severe mental illness to mortality from associated causes. Using published data, we estimate the disease burden for mental illness to show that the global burden of mental illness accounts for 32·4% of years lived with disability (YLDs) and 13·0% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), instead of the earlier estimates suggesting 21·2% of YLDs and 7·1% of DALYs. Currently used approaches underestimate the burden of mental illness by more than a third. Our estimates place mental illness a distant first in global burden of disease in terms of YLDs, and level with cardiovascular and circulatory diseases in terms of DALYs. The unacceptable apathy of governments and funders of global health must be overcome to mitigate the human, social, and economic costs of mental illness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  6. Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming conditions by statistical downscaling

    Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2008-01-01

    For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector

  7. Correlation Dimension Estimates of Global and Local Temperature Data.

    Wang, Qiang

    1995-11-01

    The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.

  8. A reassessment of North American river basin water balances in light of new estimates of mountain snow accumulation

    Wrzesien, M.; Durand, M. T.; Pavelsky, T.

    2017-12-01

    The hydrologic cycle is a key component of many aspects of daily life, yet not all water cycle processes are fully understood. In particular, water storage in mountain snowpacks remains largely unknown. Previous work with a high resolution regional climate model suggests that global and continental models underestimate mountain snow accumulation, perhaps by as much as 50%. Therefore, we hypothesize that since snow water equivalent (one aspect of the water balance) is underestimated, accepted water balances for major river basins are likely wrong, particularly for mountainous river basins. Here we examine water balances for four major high latitude North American watersheds - the Columbia, Mackenzie, Nelson, and Yukon. The mountainous percentage of each basin ranges, which allows us to consider whether a bias in the water balance is affected by mountain area percentage within the watershed. For our water balance evaluation, we especially consider precipitation estimates from a variety of datasets, including models, such as WRF and MERRA, and observation-based, such as CRU and GPCP. We ask whether the precipitation datasets provide enough moisture for seasonal snow to accumulate within the basin and whether we see differences in the variability of annual and seasonal precipitation from each dataset. From our reassessment of high-latitude water balances, we aim to determine whether the current understanding is sufficient to describe all processes within the hydrologic cycle or whether datasets appear to be biased, particularly in high-elevation precipitation. Should currently-available datasets appear to be similarly biased in precipitation, as we have seen in mountain snow accumulation, we discuss the implications for the continental water budget.

  9. Estimation of diffuse from measured global solar radiation

    Moriarty, W.W.

    1991-01-01

    A data set of quality controlled radiation observations from stations scattered throughout Australia was formed and further screened to remove residual doubtful observations. It was then divided into groups by solar elevation, and used to find average relationships for each elevation group between relative global radiation (clearness index - the measured global radiation expressed as a proportion of the radiation on a horizontal surface at the top of the atmosphere) and relative diffuse radiation. Clear-cut relationships were found, which were then fitted by polynomial expressions giving the relative diffuse radiation as a function of relative global radiation and solar elevation. When these expressions were used to estimate the diffuse radiation from the global, the results had a slightly smaller spread of errors than those from an earlier technique given by Spencer. It was found that the errors were related to cloud amount, and further relationships were developed giving the errors as functions of global radiation, solar elevation, and the fraction of sky obscured by high cloud and by opaque (low and middle level) cloud. When these relationships were used to adjust the first estimates of diffuse radiation, there was a considerable reduction in the number of large errors

  10. 1km Global Terrestrial Carbon Flux: Estimations and Evaluations

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Saito, M.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating global scale of the terrestrial carbon flux change with high accuracy and high resolution is important to understand global environmental changes. Furthermore the estimations of the global spatiotemporal distribution may contribute to the political and social activities such as REDD+. In order to reveal the current state of terrestrial carbon fluxes covering all over the world and a decadal scale. The satellite-based diagnostic biosphere model is suitable for achieving this purpose owing to observing on the present global land surface condition uniformly at some time interval. In this study, we estimated the global terrestrial carbon fluxes with 1km grids by using the terrestrial biosphere model (BEAMS). And we evaluated our new carbon flux estimations on various spatial scales and showed the transition of forest carbon stocks in some regions. Because BEAMS required high resolution meteorological data and satellite data as input data, we made 1km interpolated data using a kriging method. The data used in this study were JRA-55, GPCP, GOSAT L4B atmospheric CO2 data as meteorological data, and MODIS land product as land surface satellite data. Interpolating process was performed on the meteorological data because of insufficient resolution, but not on MODIS data. We evaluated our new carbon flux estimations using the flux tower measurement (FLUXNET2015 Datasets) in a point scale. We used 166 sites data for evaluating our model results. These flux sites are classified following vegetation type (DBF, EBF, ENF, mixed forests, grass lands, croplands, shrub lands, Savannas, wetlands). In global scale, the BEAMS estimations was underestimated compared to the flux measurements in the case of carbon uptake and release. The monthly variations of NEP showed relatively high correlations in DBF and mixed forests, but the correlation coefficients of EBF, ENF, and grass lands were less than 0.5. In the meteorological factors, air temperature and solar radiation showed

  11. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  12. Estimating perception of scene layout properties from global image features.

    Ross, Michael G; Oliva, Aude

    2010-01-08

    The relationship between image features and scene structure is central to the study of human visual perception and computer vision, but many of the specifics of real-world layout perception remain unknown. We do not know which image features are relevant to perceiving layout properties, or whether those features provide the same information for every type of image. Furthermore, we do not know the spatial resolutions required for perceiving different properties. This paper describes an experiment and a computational model that provides new insights on these issues. Humans perceive the global spatial layout properties such as dominant depth, openness, and perspective, from a single image. This work describes an algorithm that reliably predicts human layout judgments. This model's predictions are general, not specific to the observers it trained on. Analysis reveals that the optimal spatial resolutions for determining layout vary with the content of the space and the property being estimated. Openness is best estimated at high resolution, depth is best estimated at medium resolution, and perspective is best estimated at low resolution. Given the reliability and simplicity of estimating the global layout of real-world environments, this model could help resolve perceptual ambiguities encountered by more detailed scene reconstruction schemas.

  13. Applicability of empirical correlations for estimating global solar radiation

    Gopinathan, K.K.; Baholo, M.

    1987-01-01

    Three empirical models suggested by different investigators, for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation on a horizontal surface, are compared statistically to test their universal applicability. The models thus compared are those suggested by Rietveld, Glover and McCulloch and Gopinathan. The models are compared by calculating the root mean square error, mean bias error and mean relative percentage error values. The model suggested by Gopinathan yields the best results in terms of root mean square, mean bias and mean percentage errors. The model by Rietveld is the second best and the model by Glover and McCulloch comes at third place. However, the differences in the magnitude of errors among the three models are very small and all the three models can be considered to be accurate for global radiation estimation for any location in the world

  14. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal...... the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention....

  15. Tritium metabolism in newborn mice and estimation of the accumulated dose

    Saito, M; Ishida, M R

    1986-01-01

    Suckling mice received tritium from their mothers who were supplied with tritiated water as drinking water. After weaning, the offspring were sacrificed and the tritium concentration was determined for various organs and various molecular components including acid soluble component, lipid, RNA, DNA and protein. The accumulated dose for the period between 3 and 41 weeks after birth was calculated for various organs and the contributions of the acid insoluble components to the total dose estimated. The per cent contribution of the acid insoluble components to the total dose was organ specific and was between about 17% and 42%. The result indicates that the inhomogeneous distribution of tritium in subcellular structures needs to be taken into account. The contribution of organically bound tritium to dose is then comparable to that of tritium in the free water component.

  16. Experimental Methods to Estimate Accumulated Solids in Nuclear Waste Tanks - 13313

    Duignan, Mark R.; Steeper, Timothy J.; Steimke, John L. [Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC 29808 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    were low. These devices and techniques were very effective to estimate the movement, location, and concentrations of the solids representing plutonium and are expected to perform well at a larger scale. The operation of the techniques and their measurement accuracies will be discussed as well as the overall results of the accumulated solids test. (authors)

  17. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Louise S L Teh

    Full Text Available Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  18. A Global Estimate of the Number of Coral Reef Fishers.

    Teh, Louise S L; Teh, Lydia C L; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Overfishing threatens coral reefs worldwide, yet there is no reliable estimate on the number of reef fishers globally. We address this data gap by quantifying the number of reef fishers on a global scale, using two approaches - the first estimates reef fishers as a proportion of the total number of marine fishers in a country, based on the ratio of reef-related to total marine fish landed values. The second estimates reef fishers as a function of coral reef area, rural coastal population, and fishing pressure. In total, we find that there are 6 million reef fishers in 99 reef countries and territories worldwide, of which at least 25% are reef gleaners. Our estimates are an improvement over most existing fisher population statistics, which tend to omit accounting for gleaners and reef fishers. Our results suggest that slightly over a quarter of the world's small-scale fishers fish on coral reefs, and half of all coral reef fishers are in Southeast Asia. Coral reefs evidently support the socio-economic well-being of numerous coastal communities. By quantifying the number of people who are employed as reef fishers, we provide decision-makers with an important input into planning for sustainable coral reef fisheries at the appropriate scale.

  19. Damage severity estimation from the global stiffness decrease

    Nitescu, C; Gillich, G R; Manescu, T; Korka, Z I; Abdel Wahab, M

    2017-01-01

    In actual damage detection methods, localization and severity estimation can be treated separately. The severity is commonly estimated using fracture mechanics approach, with the main disadvantage of involving empirically deduced relations. In this paper, a damage severity estimator based on the global stiffness reduction is proposed. This feature is computed from the deflections of the intact and damaged beam, respectively. The damage is always located where the bending moment achieves maxima. If the damage is positioned elsewhere on the beam, its effect becomes lower, because the stress is produced by a diminished bending moment. It is shown that the global stiffness reduction produced by a crack is the same for all beams with a similar cross-section, regardless of the boundary conditions. One mathematical relation indicating the severity and another indicating the effect of removing damage from the beam. Measurements on damaged beams with different boundary conditions and cross-sections are carried out, and the location and severity are found using the proposed relations. These comparisons prove that the proposed approach can be used to accurately compute the severity estimator. (paper)

  20. A priori estimates of global solutions of superlinear parabolic systems

    Julius Pacuta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider the parabolic system $ u_{t}-\\Delta u = u^{r}v^{p}$, $v_{t}-\\Delta v = u^{q}v^{s}$ in $\\Omega\\times(0,\\infty$, complemented by the homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions and the initial conditions $(u,v(\\cdot,0 = (u_{0},v_{0}$ in $\\Omega$, where $\\Omega $ is a smooth bounded domain in $ \\mathbb{R}^{N} $ and $ u_{0},v_{0}\\in L^{\\infty}(\\Omega$ are nonnegative functions. We find conditions on $ p,q,r,s $ guaranteeing a priori estimates of nonnegative classical global solutions. More precisely every such solution is bounded by a constant depending on suitable norm of the initial data. Our proofs are based on bootstrap in weighted Lebesgue spaces, universal estimates of auxiliary functions and estimates of the Dirichlet heat kernel.

  1. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  2. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Yuan, W.; Luo, Y.; Li, X.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Zhou, T.; Bahn, M.; Black, A.; Desai, A.R.; Cescatti, A.; Marcolla, B.; Jacobs, C.; Chen, J.; Aurela, M.; Bernhofer, C.; Gielen, B.; Bohrer, G.; Cook, D.R.; Dragoni, D.; Dunn, A.L.; Gianelle, D.; Grnwald, T.; Ibrom, A.; Leclerc, M.Y.; Lindroth, A.; Liu, H.; Marchesini, L.B.; Montagnani, L.; Pita, G.; Rodeghiero, M.; Rodrigues, A.; Starr, G.; Stoy, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ∼3°S to ∼70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual temperature can be considered as BR in empirical models. A strong correlation was found between the mean annual ER and mean annual gross primary production (GPP). Consequently, GPP, which is typically more accurately modeled, can be used to estimate BR. A light use efficiency GPP model (i.e., EC-LUE) was applied to estimate global GPP, BR and ER with input data from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global ER was 103 Pg C yr −1, with the highest respiration rate over tropical forests and the lowest value in dry and high-latitude areas.

  3. Estimation of Global Vegetation Productivity from Global LAnd Surface Satellite Data

    Tao Yu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Accurately estimating vegetation productivity is important in research on terrestrial ecosystems, carbon cycles and climate change. Eight-day gross primary production (GPP and annual net primary production (NPP are contained in MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS products (MOD17, which are considered the first operational datasets for monitoring global vegetation productivity. However, the cloud-contaminated MODIS leaf area index (LAI and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR retrievals may introduce some considerable errors to MODIS GPP and NPP products. In this paper, global eight-day GPP and eight-day NPP were first estimated based on Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI and FPAR products. Then, GPP and NPP estimates were validated by FLUXNET GPP data and BigFoot NPP data and were compared with MODIS GPP and NPP products. Compared with MODIS GPP, a time series showed that estimated GLASS GPP in our study was more temporally continuous and spatially complete with smoother trajectories. Validated with FLUXNET GPP and BigFoot NPP, we demonstrated that estimated GLASS GPP and NPP achieved higher precision for most vegetation types.

  4. Religious affiliation at time of death - Global estimates and projections.

    Skirbekk, Vegard; Todd, Megan; Stonawski, Marcin

    2018-03-01

    Religious affiliation influences societal practices regarding death and dying, including palliative care, religiously acceptable health service procedures, funeral rites and beliefs about an afterlife. We aimed to estimate and project religious affiliation at the time of death globally, as this information has been lacking. We compiled data on demographic information and religious affiliation from more than 2500 surveys, registers and censuses covering 198 nations/territories. We present estimates of religious affiliation at the time of death as of 2010, projections up to and including 2060, taking into account trends in mortality, religious conversion, intergenerational transmission of religion, differential fertility, and gross migration flows, by age and sex. We find that Christianity continues to be the most common religion at death, although its share will fall from 37% to 31% of global deaths between 2010 and 2060. The share of individuals identifying as Muslim at the time of death increases from 21% to 24%. The share of religiously unaffiliated will peak at 17% in 2035 followed by a slight decline thereafter. In specific regions, such as Europe, the unaffiliated share will continue to rises from 14% to 21% throughout the period. Religious affiliation at the time of death is changing globally, with distinct regional patterns. This could affect spatial variation in healthcare and social customs relating to death and dying.

  5. Global solar radiation estimation in Lavras region, Minas Gerais

    Dantas, A.A.A.; Carvalho, L.G. de; Ferreira, E.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this work was the determination of the ''a'' and '' b'' constants of the Angstrom linear model in order to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. The work was carried out in the Climatological Station of Lavras (ECP/INMET/UFLA), at the Federal University of Lavras, from December 2001 to November 2002, through insolation daily data and global solar radiation daily records. The ''a'' and '' b'' constants, that express the atmospheric transmitance, were obtained by regression analysis of those data. The obtained equation, Qg/Qt = 0,23 + 0,49 presented a determination coefficient of 0,89. The results are smaller than those suggested by the recommendations that uses the local latitude. According to the results, its possible to indicate the values of 0,23 and 0,49 to be used as the ''a'' and '' b'' constants on the Angstrom equation to estimate the global solar radiation in Lavras, MG. (author) [pt

  6. Global parameter estimation for thermodynamic models of transcriptional regulation.

    Suleimenov, Yerzhan; Ay, Ahmet; Samee, Md Abul Hassan; Dresch, Jacqueline M; Sinha, Saurabh; Arnosti, David N

    2013-07-15

    Deciphering the mechanisms involved in gene regulation holds the key to understanding the control of central biological processes, including human disease, population variation, and the evolution of morphological innovations. New experimental techniques including whole genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis have enabled comprehensive modeling approaches to study gene regulation. In many cases, it is useful to be able to assign biological significance to the inferred model parameters, but such interpretation should take into account features that affect these parameters, including model construction and sensitivity, the type of fitness calculation, and the effectiveness of parameter estimation. This last point is often neglected, as estimation methods are often selected for historical reasons or for computational ease. Here, we compare the performance of two parameter estimation techniques broadly representative of local and global approaches, namely, a quasi-Newton/Nelder-Mead simplex (QN/NMS) method and a covariance matrix adaptation-evolutionary strategy (CMA-ES) method. The estimation methods were applied to a set of thermodynamic models of gene transcription applied to regulatory elements active in the Drosophila embryo. Measuring overall fit, the global CMA-ES method performed significantly better than the local QN/NMS method on high quality data sets, but this difference was negligible on lower quality data sets with increased noise or on data sets simplified by stringent thresholding. Our results suggest that the choice of parameter estimation technique for evaluation of gene expression models depends both on quality of data, the nature of the models [again, remains to be established] and the aims of the modeling effort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Global Carleman estimates for degenerate parabolic operators with applications

    Cannarsa, P; Vancostenoble, J

    2016-01-01

    Degenerate parabolic operators have received increasing attention in recent years because they are associated with both important theoretical analysis, such as stochastic diffusion processes, and interesting applications to engineering, physics, biology, and economics. This manuscript has been conceived to introduce the reader to global Carleman estimates for a class of parabolic operators which may degenerate at the boundary of the space domain, in the normal direction to the boundary. Such a kind of degeneracy is relevant to study the invariance of a domain with respect to a given stochastic diffusion flow, and appears naturally in climatology models.

  8. Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22

    E. Saikawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG. HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4, and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates

  9. A Study on the Establishment of Radiation Dose Estimation Procedure for Accumulated Radioactive Ions for RAON ISOL System

    KIM Do Hyun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For purposes of various experiments, RAON heavy ion accelerator facility has been designed in Korea. ISOL is one system of RAON accelerators to generate and separate rare isotopes. Radioactive ions generated from target-proton reactions are separated and accumulated at separation devices. The accumulated isotopes release the gamma radiations; therefore, the radiation safety must be clearly estimated. In this study, a process to evaluate radiations from the accumulated ions was proposed by modifying FISPACT code. The proposed process was validated by comparing a solution of single element decay problem. Using the process, a preliminary study for radiation doses were performed in a virtual separation devise.

  10. Estimating the Global Burden of Endemic Canine Rabies

    Hampson, Katie; Coudeville, Laurent; Lembo, Tiziana; Sambo, Maganga; Kieffer, Alexia; Attlan, Michaël; Barrat, Jacques; Blanton, Jesse D.; Briggs, Deborah J.; Cleaveland, Sarah; Costa, Peter; Freuling, Conrad M.; Hiby, Elly; Knopf, Lea; Leanes, Fernando; Meslin, François-Xavier; Metlin, Artem; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Müller, Thomas; Nel, Louis H.; Recuenco, Sergio; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Schumacher, Carolin; Taylor, Louise; Vigilato, Marco Antonio Natal; Zinsstag, Jakob; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    Background Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries. Methodology/Principal Findings We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%). Conclusions/Significance This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to

  11. HIV due to female sex work: regional and global estimates.

    Annette Prüss-Ustün

    Full Text Available Female sex workers (FSWs are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

  12. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  13. Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies.

    Katie Hampson

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000 human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%, followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20% and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%, with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%, and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%.This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

  14. Estimation of global solar radiation by means of sunshine duration

    Luis, Mazorra Aguiar; Felipe, Diaz Reyes [Electrical Engineering Dept., Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Univ. (U.L.P.G.C.), Campus Univ. Tafira (Spain); Pilar, Navarro Rivero [Canary Islands Technological Inst. (I.T.C.), Gran Canaria (Spain)

    2008-07-01

    This paper analyses the relationship between global solar irradiation and sunshine duration with different estimation models for the island of Gran Canaria (Spain). These parameters were taken from six measurement stations around the Island, and selected for their reliability and the long period of time they covered. All data used in this paper were handed over by the Canary Islands Technological Institute (I.T.C.). As a first approach, it was decided to study the Angstrom lineal model. In order to improve the knowledge on solar resources, a Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) was created from all daily data. TMY shows differences between southern and northern locations, where Trade Winds generate clouds during the summer months. TMY resumes a data bank much longer than a year in duration, generating the characteristics for a year series of each location, for both irradiation and sunshine duration. To create the TMY, weighted means have been used to smooth high or low values. At first, Angstrom lineal model has been used to estimate solar global irradiation from sunshine duration values, using TMY. But the lineal model didn't reproduce satisfactory results when used to obtain global solar radiation from all daily sunshine duration data. For this reason, different models based in both parameters were used. The parameters estimation of this model was achieved both from TMY daily and monthly series and from all daily data for every location. Because of the weather stability all over the year in the Island, most of the daily data are concentrated in a close range, occasioning a deviation in the lineal equations. To avoid this deviation it was proposed to consider a limit condition data, taking into account values out of the main cloud of data. Additionally, different models were proposed (quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential) to make a regression from all daily data. The best results were obtained with the exponential model proposed in this paper. The

  15. Estimation of some heavy metals in polluted well water and mercury accumulation in broiler organs

    Hussein Khamis Hussein

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the concentrations of heavy metals in well water and bioaccumulation of the most abundant metals in chicken tissues in some areas in the province of Mecca Almokaramah, Saudi Arabia. Among the heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Mn, Cu Hg, Pb and Ni studied, mercury (Hg revealed highest in concentration in well waters. The concentration of mercury in the ground water, beside in liver, kidney, muscle and blood samples of ten chickens from each of four poultry- production farms were estimated using atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed that the kidney followed by liver had the highest bioaccumulation of mercury in all farm samples. The level of mercury in the ground water was 7.06µg/L. The relationship between mercury accumulation levels in the kidney and those in the liver tissues were proportionally correlated and altered with elevation in the antioxidant enzyme activities such as AST and ALT. These elevated enzymatic activities were induced by the level of toxicity. There was a significant elevation in the level of liver and kidney malondialdhyde (MDA, while the activities of antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase and catalase (SOD and CAT were significantly decreased. Biochemical observations were supplemented by histopathological examination of liver and kidney sections.

  16. A Global Estimate of Seafood Consumption by Coastal Indigenous Peoples.

    Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M; Pauly, Daniel; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Ota, Yoshitaka

    2016-01-01

    Coastal Indigenous peoples rely on ocean resources and are highly vulnerable to ecosystem and economic change. Their challenges have been observed and recognized at local and regional scales, yet there are no global-scale analyses to inform international policies. We compile available data for over 1,900 coastal Indigenous communities around the world representing 27 million people across 87 countries. Based on available data at local and regional levels, we estimate a total global yearly seafood consumption of 2.1 million (1.5 million-2.8 million) metric tonnes by coastal Indigenous peoples, equal to around 2% of global yearly commercial fisheries catch. Results reflect the crucial role of seafood for these communities; on average, consumption per capita is 15 times higher than non-Indigenous country populations. These findings contribute to an urgently needed sense of scale to coastal Indigenous issues, and will hopefully prompt increased recognition and directed research regarding the marine knowledge and resource needs of Indigenous peoples. Marine resources are crucial to the continued existence of coastal Indigenous peoples, and their needs must be explicitly incorporated into management policies.

  17. Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

    Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

    2010-01-01

    The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed

  18. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016

    G. R. van der Werf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate, land use, and other anthropogenic and natural drivers have the potential to influence fire dynamics in many regions. To develop a mechanistic understanding of the changing role of these drivers and their impact on atmospheric composition, long-term fire records are needed that fuse information from different satellite and in situ data streams. Here we describe the fourth version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED and quantify global fire emissions patterns during 1997–2016. The modeling system, based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA biogeochemical model, has several modifications from the previous version and uses higher quality input datasets. Significant upgrades include (1 new burned area estimates with contributions from small fires, (2 a revised fuel consumption parameterization optimized using field observations, (3 modifications that improve the representation of fuel consumption in frequently burning landscapes, and (4 fire severity estimates that better represent continental differences in burning processes across boreal regions of North America and Eurasia. The new version has a higher spatial resolution (0.25° and uses a different set of emission factors that separately resolves trace gas and aerosol emissions from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Global mean carbon emissions using the burned area dataset with small fires (GFED4s were 2.2  ×  1015 grams of carbon per year (Pg C yr−1 during 1997–2016, with a maximum in 1997 (3.0 Pg C yr−1 and minimum in 2013 (1.8 Pg C yr−1. These estimates were 11 % higher than our previous estimates (GFED3 during 1997–2011, when the two datasets overlapped. This net increase was the result of a substantial increase in burned area (37 %, mostly due to the inclusion of small fires, and a modest decrease in mean fuel consumption (−19 % to better match estimates from field studies, primarily in savannas and

  19. An assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without ground-based observations

    C. Massari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based rainfall estimates over land have great potential for a wide range of applications, but their validation is challenging due to the scarcity of ground-based observations of rainfall in many areas of the planet. Recent studies have suggested the use of triple collocation (TC to characterize uncertainties associated with rainfall estimates by using three collocated rainfall products. However, TC requires the simultaneous availability of three products with mutually uncorrelated errors, a requirement which is difficult to satisfy with current global precipitation data sets. In this study, a recently developed method for rainfall estimation from soil moisture observations, SM2RAIN, is demonstrated to facilitate the accurate application of TC within triplets containing two state-of-the-art satellite rainfall estimates and a reanalysis product. The validity of different TC assumptions are indirectly tested via a high-quality ground rainfall product over the contiguous United States (CONUS, showing that SM2RAIN can provide a truly independent source of rainfall accumulation information which uniquely satisfies the assumptions underlying TC. On this basis, TC is applied with SM2RAIN on a global scale in an optimal configuration to calculate, for the first time, reliable global correlations (vs. an unknown truth of the aforementioned products without using a ground benchmark data set. The analysis is carried out during the period 2007–2012 using daily rainfall accumulation products obtained at 1° × 1° spatial resolution. Results convey the relatively high performance of the satellite rainfall estimates in eastern North and South America, southern Africa, southern and eastern Asia, eastern Australia, and southern Europe, as well as complementary performances between the reanalysis product and SM2RAIN, with the first performing reasonably well in the Northern Hemisphere and the second providing very good performance in the Southern

  20. Estimation of clear sky hourly global solar radiation in Iraq

    Al-Jumaily, Kais J.; Al-Zuhairi, Munya F.; Mahdi, Zahraa S. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

    2012-07-01

    The availability of hourly solar radiation data is very important for applications utilizing solar energy and for climate and environmental aspects. The aim of this work is to use a simple model for estimating hourly global solar radiation under clear sky condition in Iraq. Calculations were compared with measurements obtained from local station in Baghdad city and from Meteosat satellite data for different locations in Iraq. The statistical test methods of the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and t-test were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Results indicated that a fairly good agreement exists between calculated and measured values for all locations in Iraq. Since the model is independent of any meteorological variable, it would be of a practical use for rural areas where no meteorological data are available.

  1. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  2. Biochemical diagnosis of mucopolysaccharidoses by estimation of intracellular 35S-sulfate accumulation

    Petruschka, L.; Machill, G.; Wehnert, M.

    1985-01-01

    The investigation of 35 S-sulfate accumulation and of 35 SO 4 -labelled glycosaminoglucane molecules (chase-experiments) in cultured cells was used in post- and prenatal diagnosis of mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS). Cell lines which accumulate 35 S-sulfate can be differentiated by means of cross correction or measurement of enzyme activity. 34 patients with the MPS type I, II, III A, III B and VI, respectively, were diagnosed in this way. Four pregnancies at risk for MPS were prenatally monitored by the sulfate accumulation in cultured amniotic fluid cells. One fetus suffering from MPS II was found. (author)

  3. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  4. Global estimates of high-level brain drain and deficit.

    Ioannidis, John P A

    2004-06-01

    Brain drain, the international migration of scientists in search of better opportunities, has been a long-standing concern, but quantitative measurements are uncommon and limited to specific countries or disciplines. We need to understand brain drain at a global level and estimate the extent to which scientists born in countries with low opportunities never realize their potential. Data on 1523 of the most highly cited scientists for 1981-1999 are analyzed. Overall, 31.9% of these scientists did not reside in the country where they were born (range 18.1-54.6% across 21 different scientific fields). There was great variability across developed countries in the proportions of foreign-born resident scientists and emigrating scientists. Countries without a critical mass of native scientists lost most scientists to migration. This loss occurred in both developed and developing countries. Adjusting for population and using the U.S. as reference, the number of highly cited native-born scientists was at least 75% of the expected number in only 8 countries other than the U.S. It is estimated that approximately 94% of the expected top scientists worldwide have not been able to materialize themselves due to various adverse conditions. Scientific deficit is only likely to help perpetuate these adverse conditions.

  5. Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence.

    Jorge Alvar

    Full Text Available As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see 'Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101'. Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North

  6. Techniques for the estimation of global irradiation from sunshine duration and global irradiation estimation for Italian locations

    Jain, P.C.

    1984-04-01

    Angstrom equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ) has been fitted using the least-square method to the global irradiation and the sunshine duration data of 31 Italian locations for the duration 1965-1974. Three more linear equations: i) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of the multiple reflections between the earth's surface and the atmosphere, ii) the equation H=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating the effect of not burning of the sunshine recorder chart when the elevation of the sun is less than 5 deg., and iii) the equation H'=H 0 (a+bS/S' 0 ), obtained by incorporating both the above effects simultaneously, have also each been fitted to the same data. Good correlation with correlation coefficients around 0.9 or more are obtained for most of the locations with all the four equations. Substantial spatial scatter is obtained in the values of the regression parameters. The use of any of the three latter equations does not result in any advantage over that of the simpler Angstrom equation; it neither results in a decrease in the spatial scatter in the values of the regression parameters nor does it yield better correlation. The computed values of the regression parameters in the Angstrom equation yield estimates of the global irradiation that are on the average within +- 4% of the measured values for most of the locations. (author)

  7. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  8. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    Junjie Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9 occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF. However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3 × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  9. Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

    Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

    2017-06-01

    Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the

  10. The effects of global warming on fisheries: Simulation estimates

    Carlos A. Medel

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops two fisheries models in order to estimate the effect of global warming (GW on firm value. GW is defined as an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface as a result of emissions. It is assumed that (i GW exists, and (ii higher temperatures negatively affect biomass. CO2 The literature on biology and GW supporting these two crucial assumptions is reviewed. The main argument presented is that temperature increase has two effects on biomass, both of which have an impact on firm value. First, higher temperatures cause biomass to oscillate. To measure the effect of biomass oscillation on firm value the model in [1] is modified to include water temperature as a variable. The results indicate that a 1 to 20% variation in biomass causes firm value to fall from 6 to 44%, respectively. Second, higher temperatures reduce biomass, and a modification of the model in [2] reveals that an increase in temperature anomaly between +1 and +8°C causes fishing firm value to decrease by 8 to 10%.

  11. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; Laboratory Implementation and Current Global Status.

    Miller, W Greg; Jones, Graham R D

    2018-01-01

    In 2002, the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines for identifying and treating CKD recommended that clinical laboratories report estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with every creatinine result to assist clinical practitioners to identify people with early-stage CKD. At that time, the original Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation based on serum creatinine measurements was recommended for calculating eGFR. Because the MDRD Study equation was developed using a nonstandardized creatinine method, a Laboratory Working Group of the National Kidney Disease Education program was formed and implemented standardized calibration traceability for all creatinine methods from global manufacturers by approximately 2010. A modified MDRD Study equation for use with standardized creatinine was developed. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration developed a new equation in 2009 that was more accurate than the MDRD Study equation at values above 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . As of 2017, reporting eGFR with creatinine is almost universal in many countries. A reference system for cystatin C became available in 2010, and manufacturers are in the process to standardize cystatin C assays. Equations for eGFR based on standardized cystatin C alone and with creatinine are now available from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and other groups. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  13. Recent greenland accumulation estimated from regional climate model simulations and ice core analysis

    Dethloff, K.; Schwager, M.; Christensen, J. H.

    2002-01-01

    to precipitation. Maxima of precipitation and accumulation occur at the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Greenland and are connected with cyclonic activity and the main storm tracks around Greenland. The central region of the Greenland ice sheet acts as a blocking barrier on moving weather systems...... and prohibits cyclones moving from west to east across this region and, thus prevents moisture transports....

  14. Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Andres, R.; Houghton, R.; Stocker, B. D.; Wanninkhof, R.; Anderegg, W.; Cooper, L. A.; DeGrandpre, M.; Tans, P. P.; Miller, J. B.; Alden, C.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr-1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr-1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere

  15. Can Observation Skills of Citizen Scientists Be Estimated Using Species Accumulation Curves?

    Steve Kelling

    Full Text Available Volunteers are increasingly being recruited into citizen science projects to collect observations for scientific studies. An additional goal of these projects is to engage and educate these volunteers. Thus, there are few barriers to participation resulting in volunteer observers with varying ability to complete the project's tasks. To improve the quality of a citizen science project's outcomes it would be useful to account for inter-observer variation, and to assess the rarely tested presumption that participating in a citizen science projects results in volunteers becoming better observers. Here we present a method for indexing observer variability based on the data routinely submitted by observers participating in the citizen science project eBird, a broad-scale monitoring project in which observers collect and submit lists of the bird species observed while birding. Our method for indexing observer variability uses species accumulation curves, lines that describe how the total number of species reported increase with increasing time spent in collecting observations. We find that differences in species accumulation curves among observers equates to higher rates of species accumulation, particularly for harder-to-identify species, and reveals increased species accumulation rates with continued participation. We suggest that these properties of our analysis provide a measure of observer skill, and that the potential to derive post-hoc data-derived measurements of participant ability should be more widely explored by analysts of data from citizen science projects. We see the potential for inferential results from analyses of citizen science data to be improved by accounting for observer skill.

  16. Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

    Y. Zhao

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate black carbon (BC model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model

  17. Hardware architecture design of a fast global motion estimation method

    Liang, Chaobing; Sang, Hongshi; Shen, Xubang

    2015-12-01

    VLSI implementation of gradient-based global motion estimation (GME) faces two main challenges: irregular data access and high off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. We previously proposed a fast GME method that reduces computational complexity by choosing certain number of small patches containing corners and using them in a gradient-based framework. A hardware architecture is designed to implement this method and further reduce off-chip memory bandwidth requirement. On-chip memories are used to store coordinates of the corners and template patches, while the Gaussian pyramids of both the template and reference frame are stored in off-chip SDRAMs. By performing geometric transform only on the coordinates of the center pixel of a 3-by-3 patch in the template image, a 5-by-5 area containing the warped 3-by-3 patch in the reference image is extracted from the SDRAMs by burst read. Patched-based and burst mode data access helps to keep the off-chip memory bandwidth requirement at the minimum. Although patch size varies at different pyramid level, all patches are processed in term of 3x3 patches, so the utilization of the patch-processing circuit reaches 100%. FPGA implementation results show that the design utilizes 24,080 bits on-chip memory and for a sequence with resolution of 352x288 and frequency of 60Hz, the off-chip bandwidth requirement is only 3.96Mbyte/s, compared with 243.84Mbyte/s of the original gradient-based GME method. This design can be used in applications like video codec, video stabilization, and super-resolution, where real-time GME is a necessity and minimum memory bandwidth requirement is appreciated.

  18. Historical legacies accumulate to shape future biodiversity in an era of rapid global change

    Essl, F.; Dullinger, S.; Rabitsch, W.; Hulme, P. E.; Pyšek, Petr; Wilson, J. R. U.; Richardson, D. M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 5 (2015), s. 534-547 ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G Grant - others:AV ČR(CZ) AP1002 Program:Akademická prémie - Praemium Academiae Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : biological invasions * global change * time lags Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.566, year: 2015

  19. Heavy metals effects on forage crops yields and estimation of elements accumulation in plants as affected by soil

    Grytsyuk, N.; Arapis, G.; Perepelyatnikova, L.; Ivanova, T.; Vynograds'ka, V.

    2006-01-01

    Heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn) effect on the productivity of forage crops (clover and perennial cereal grasses) and their accumulation in plants, depending on the concentration of these elements in a soil, has been studied in micro-field experiments on three types of soil. The principle objective was to determine regularities of heavy metals migration in a soil-plant system aiming the estimation of permissible levels of heavy metals content in soils with the following elaboration of methods, which regulate the toxicants transfer to plants. Methods of field experiments, agrochemical and atomic absorption analysis were used. Results were statistically treated by Statistica 6.0, S-Plus 6. Experimental results have shown that the intensity of heavy metals accumulation in plants depends on the type of the soil, the species of plants, the physicochemical properties of heavy metals and their content in the soil. Logarithmic interdependency of heavy metals concentration in soils and their accumulation in plants is suggested. However, the strong correlation between the different heavy metals concentrations in the various soils and the yield of crops was not observed. Toxicants accumulation in crops decreased in time

  20. Heavy metals effects on forage crops yields and estimation of elements accumulation in plants as affected by soil.

    Grytsyuk, N; Arapis, G; Perepelyatnikova, L; Ivanova, T; Vynograds'ka, V

    2006-02-01

    Heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn) effect on the productivity of forage crops (clover and perennial cereal grasses) and their accumulation in plants, depending on the concentration of these elements in a soil, has been studied in micro-field experiments on three types of soil. The principle objective was to determine regularities of heavy metals migration in a soil-plant system aiming the estimation of permissible levels of heavy metals content in soils with the following elaboration of methods, which regulate the toxicants transfer to plants. Methods of field experiments, agrochemical and atomic absorption analysis were used. Results were statistically treated by Statistica 6.0, S-Plus 6. Experimental results have shown that the intensity of heavy metals accumulation in plants depends on the type of the soil, the species of plants, the physicochemical properties of heavy metals and their content in the soil. Logarithmic interdependency of heavy metals concentration in soils and their accumulation in plants is suggested. However, the strong correlation between the different heavy metals concentrations in the various soils and the yield of crops was not observed. Toxicants accumulation in crops decreased in time.

  1. Global warming: Experimental study about the effect of accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

    Molto, Carlos; Mas, Miquel

    2010-05-01

    The project presented here was developed by fifteen year old students of the Institut Sabadell (Sabadell Secondary School. Spain). The objective of this project was to raise the students awareness' about the problem of climate change, mainly caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is also intended that students use the scientific method as an effective system of troubleshooting and that they use the ICTs (Information and Communication Technologies) to elicit data and process information. To develop this project, four lessons of sixty minutes each were needed. The first lesson sets out the role of the atmosphere as an Earth's temperature regulator, highlighting the importance of keeping the levels of carbon dioxide, methane and water steam in balance. The second lesson is focused on the experimental activity that students will develop in the following lesson. In lesson two, students will present and justify their hypothesis about the experiment. Some theoretical concepts, necessary to carry out the experiment, will also be explained. The third lesson involves the core of the project, that is the experiment in the laboratory. The experiment consists on performing the atmosphere heating on a little scale. Four different atmospheres are created inside four plastic boxes heated by an infrared lamp. Students work in groups (one group for each atmosphere) and have to monitor the evolution of temperature by means of a temperature sensor (Multilog software). The first group has to observe the relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide levels increase, mainly caused by the widespread practice of burning fossil fuels by growing human populations. The task of this group is to measure simultaneously the temperature of an empty box (without CO2) and the temperature of a box with high carbon dioxide concentration. The carbon dioxide concentration is the result of the chemical reaction when sodium carbonate mixes with hydrochloric acid. The

  2. Estimating Solar Energy Potential in Buildings on a Global Level

    Petrichenko, Ksenia

    2015-01-01

    This chapter contributes to the debate around net-zero energy concept from a global perspective. By means of comprehensive modelling, it analyses how much global building energy consumption could be reduced through utilisation of building-integrated solar energy technologies and energy......-efficiency improvements. Valuable insights on the locations and building types, in which it is feasible to achieve a net-zero level of energy performance through solar energy utilisation, are presented in world maps....

  3. Estimating Global Cropland Extent with Multi-year MODIS Data

    Christopher O. Justice

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the suitability of 250 m MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data for mapping global cropland extent. A set of 39 multi-year MODIS metrics incorporating four MODIS land bands, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and thermal data was employed to depict cropland phenology over the study period. Sub-pixel training datasets were used to generate a set of global classification tree models using a bagging methodology, resulting in a global per-pixel cropland probability layer. This product was subsequently thresholded to create a discrete cropland/non-cropland indicator map using data from the USDA-FAS (Foreign Agricultural Service Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD database describing per-country acreage of production field crops. Five global land cover products, four of which attempted to map croplands in the context of multiclass land cover classifications, were subsequently used to perform regional evaluations of the global MODIS cropland extent map. The global probability layer was further examined with reference to four principle global food crops: corn, soybeans, wheat and rice. Overall results indicate that the MODIS layer best depicts regions of intensive broadleaf crop production (corn and soybean, both in correspondence with existing maps and in associated high probability matching thresholds. Probability thresholds for wheat-growing regions were lower, while areas of rice production had the lowest associated confidence. Regions absent of agricultural intensification, such as Africa, are poorly characterized regardless of crop type. The results reflect the value of MODIS as a generic global cropland indicator for intensive agriculture production regions, but with little sensitivity in areas of low agricultural intensification. Variability in mapping accuracies between areas dominated by different crop types also points to the desirability of a crop-specific approach rather than attempting

  4. Accumulation and quantitative estimates of airborne lead for a wild plant (Aster subulatus).

    Hu, Xin; Zhang, Yun; Luo, Jun; Xie, Mingjie; Wang, Tijian; Lian, Hongzhen

    2011-03-01

    Foliar uptake of airborne lead is one of the pathways for Pb accumulation in plant organs. However, the approximate contributions of airborne Pb to plant organs are still unclear. In the present study, aerosols (nine-stage size-segregated aerosols and total suspended particulates), a wild plant species (Aster subulatus) and the corresponding soils were collected and Pb contents and isotopic ratios in these samples were analyzed. Average concentration of Pb was 96.5 ± 63.5 ng m(-3) in total suspended particulates (TSP) and 20.4 ± 5.5 ng m(-3) in the fine fractions of size-segregated aerosols (SSA) (2.1 μm) (6.38 ± 3.71 ng m(-3)). Enrichment factors show that aerosols and soils suffered from anthropogenic inputs and the fine fractions of the size-segregated aerosols enriched more Pb than the coarse fractions. The order of Pb contents in A. subulatus was roots>leaves>stems. The linear relationship of Pb isotope ratios ((206)Pb/(207)Pb and (208)Pb/(206)Pb) among soil, plant and aerosol samples were found. Based on the simple binary Pb isotopic model using the mean (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios in TSP and in SSA, the approximate contributions of airborne Pb into plant leaves were 72.2% and 65.1%, respectively, suggesting that airborne Pb is the most important source for the Pb accumulation in leaves. So the combination of Pb isotope tracing and the simple binary Pb isotope model can assess the contribution of airborne Pb into plant leaves and may be of interest for risk assessment of the exposure to airborne Pb contamination. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fatigue life estimation of MD36 and MD523 bogies based on damage accumulation and random fatigue theory

    Younesian, Davood; Solhmirzaei, Ali; Gachloo, Alireza

    2009-01-01

    Bogies are one of the multifunctional parts of trains which are extremely subjected to random loads. This type of oscillating and random excitation arises from irregularities of the track including rail surface vertical roughness, rail joints, variance in super-elevation, and also wheel imperfections like wheel flats and unbalancy. Since most of the prementioned sources have random nature, a random based theory should be applied for fatigue life estimation of the bogie frame. Two methods of fatigue life estimation are investigated in this paper. The first approach which is being implemented in time domain is based on the damage accumulation (DA) approach. Using Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm, the rail surface roughness is generated. Finite element (FE) model of the bogie is subjected to the generated random excitation in the first approach and the stress time histories are obtained, and consequently the fatigue life is estimated by using the rain-flow algorithm. In the second approach, the fatigue life is estimated in frequency domain. Power spectral density (PSD) of the stress is obtained by using the FE model of the bogie frame and the fatigue life is estimated using Rayleigh technique in random fatigue theory. A comprehensive parametric study is carried out and effects of different parameters like the train speeds and level of the rail surface vertical roughness on the estimated fatigue life are investigated

  6. Performance of Sayigh's universal formula in the estimation of global solar radiation in Ghana

    Oduro Afriyie, K.

    1995-10-01

    The performance of Sayigh's universal formula for the estimation of global solar radiation is tested against that of Angstrom-Black model for 13 stations in Ghana, using monthly mean daily global solar radiation averaged over the years 1957-1981. Sayigh's model is found not to perform as credibility as the Angstrom-Black model in the estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Ghana. Of the 156 values of monthly global solar radiation estimated by Sayigh's model, 123 (or 78.8%) had discrepancies of more than 10% with the measured values. The corresponding value for the Angstrom-Black model was 7 (or 4.5%). (author). 5 refs

  7. Estimation of the global climate effect of brown carbon

    Zhang, A.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Song, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosols significantly affect global radiative forcing and climate through absorption and scattering of sunlight. Black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) are light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols. The global distribution and climate effect of BrC is uncertain. A recent study suggests that BrC absorption is comparable to BC in the upper troposphere over biomass burning region and that the resulting heating tends to stabilize the atmosphere. Yet current climate models do not include proper treatments of BrC. In this study, we derived a BrC global biomass burning emission inventory from Global Fire Emissions Database 4 (GFED4) and developed a BrC module in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) of Community Earth System Model (CESM) model. The model simulations compared well to BrC observations of the Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Project (DC-3) campaigns and includes BrC bleaching. Model results suggested that BrC in the upper troposphere due to convective transport is as important an absorber as BC globally. Upper tropospheric BrC radiative forcing is particularly significant over the tropics, affecting the atmosphere stability and Hadley circulation.

  8. Impact of Galileo on Global Ionosphere Map Estimation

    Undetermined, U.

    2006-01-01

    The upcoming GNSS Galileo, with its new satellite geometry and frequency plan, will not only bring many benefits for navigation and positioning but also help to improve ionosphere delay estimation. This paper investigates ionosphere estimation with Galileo and compares it with the results from

  9. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Yuan, Wenping [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Luo, Yiqi [Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Li, Xianglan [College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Liu, Shuguang; Yu, Guirui [Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Synthesis Research Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Zhou, Tao [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Bahn, Michael [Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Black, Andy [Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B. C., Canada; Desai, Ankur R. [Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, Center for Climatic Research, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Cescatti, Alessandro [Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Marcolla, Barbara [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Jacobs, Cor [Alterra, Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Chen, Jiquan [Department of Earth, Ecological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio, USA; Aurela, Mika [Climate and Global Change Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Bernhofer, Christian [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Gielen, Bert [Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, Belgium; Bohrer, Gil [Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA; Cook, David R. [Climate Research Section, Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA; Dragoni, Danilo [Department of Geography, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Dunn, Allison L. [Department of Physical and Earth Sciences, Worcester State College, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA; Gianelle, Damiano [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Grünwald, Thomas [Chair of Meteorology, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany; Ibrom, Andreas [Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Biosystems Division, Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark; Leclerc, Monique Y. [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, USA; Lindroth, Anders [Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Liu, Heping [Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA; Marchesini, Luca Belelli [Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; Montagnani, Leonardo; Pita, Gabriel [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal; Rodeghiero, Mirco [Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources Department, Fondazione Edmund Mach-IASMA Research and Innovation Centre, San Michele all' Adige, Italy; Rodrigues, Abel [Unidade de Silvicultura e Produtos Florestais, Instituto Nacional dos Recursos Biológicos, Oeiras, Portugal; Starr, Gregory [Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Stoy, Paul C. [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA

    2011-10-13

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models still use a global constant BR largely due to the lack of a functional description for BR. In this study, we redefined BR to be ecosystem respiration rate at the mean annual temperature. To test the validity of this concept, we conducted a synthesis analysis using 276 site-years of eddy covariance data, from 79 research sites located at latitudes ranging from ~3°S to ~70°N. Results showed that mean annual ER rate closely matches ER rate at mean annual temperature. Incorporation of site-specific BR into global ER model substantially improved simulated ER compared to an invariant BR at all sites. These results confirm that ER at the mean annual

  10. Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

    Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

    2017-09-01

    Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional

  11. Anomaly Detection and Life Pattern Estimation for the Elderly Based on Categorization of Accumulated Data

    Mori, Taketoshi; Ishino, Takahito; Noguchi, Hiroshi; Shimosaka, Masamichi; Sato, Tomomasa

    2011-06-01

    We propose a life pattern estimation method and an anomaly detection method for elderly people living alone. In our observation system for such people, we deploy some pyroelectric sensors into the house and measure the person's activities all the time in order to grasp the person's life pattern. The data are transferred successively to the operation center and displayed to the nurses in the center in a precise way. Then, the nurses decide whether the data is the anomaly or not. In the system, the people whose features in their life resemble each other are categorized as the same group. Anomalies occurred in the past are shared in the group and utilized in the anomaly detection algorithm. This algorithm is based on "anomaly score." The "anomaly score" is figured out by utilizing the activeness of the person. This activeness is approximately proportional to the frequency of the sensor response in a minute. The "anomaly score" is calculated from the difference between the activeness in the present and the past one averaged in the long term. Thus, the score is positive if the activeness in the present is higher than the average in the past, and the score is negative if the value in the present is lower than the average. If the score exceeds a certain threshold, it means that an anomaly event occurs. Moreover, we developed an activity estimation algorithm. This algorithm estimates the residents' basic activities such as uprising, outing, and so on. The estimation is shown to the nurses with the "anomaly score" of the residents. The nurses can understand the residents' health conditions by combining these two information.

  12. Global transcriptional profiling of longitudinal clinical isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exhibiting rapid accumulation of drug resistance.

    Anirvan Chatterjee

    Full Text Available The identification of multidrug resistant (MDR, extensively and totally drug resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, in vulnerable sites such as Mumbai, is a grave threat to the control of tuberculosis. The current study aimed at explaining the rapid expression of MDR in Directly Observed Treatment Short Course (DOTS compliant patients, represents the first study comparing global transcriptional profiles of 3 pairs of clinical Mtb isolates, collected longitudinally at initiation and completion of DOTS. While the isolates were drug susceptible (DS at onset and MDR at completion of DOTS, they exhibited identical DNA fingerprints at both points of collection. The whole genome transcriptional analysis was performed using total RNA from H37Rv and 3 locally predominant spoligotypes viz. MANU1, CAS and Beijing, hybridized on MTBv3 (BuG@S microarray, and yielded 36, 98 and 45 differentially expressed genes respectively. Genes encoding transcription factors (sig, rpoB, cell wall biosynthesis (emb genes, protein synthesis (rpl and additional central metabolic pathways (ppdK, pknH, pfkB were found to be down regulated in the MDR isolates as compared to the DS isolate of the same genotype. Up regulation of drug efflux pumps, ABC transporters, trans-membrane proteins and stress response transcriptional factors (whiB in the MDR isolates was observed. The data indicated that Mtb, without specific mutations in drug target genes may persist in the host due to additional mechanisms like drug efflux pumps and lowered rate of metabolism. Furthermore this population of Mtb, which also showed reduced DNA repair activity, would result in selection and stabilization of spontaneous mutations in drug target genes, causing selection of a MDR strain in the presence of drug pressures. Efflux pump such as drrA may play a significant role in increasing fitness of low level drug resistant cells and assist in survival of Mtb till acquisition of drug resistant mutations with

  13. Limited Resources, Limited Opportunities, and the Accumulation of Disadvantage: Evidence from the Global Survey of Physicists

    Ivie, Rachel

    2012-03-01

    Using the results of the Global Survey of Physicists, which we conducted in collaboration with the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics Working Group on Women, we document the effect of limited resources and opportunities on women physicists' careers. We find that women respondents are less likely than men to report access to a variety of resources and opportunities that would be helpful in advancing a scientific career. These include access to funding, travel money, lab and office space, equipment, clerical support, and availability of employees or students to help with research. When asked about specific opportunities, women report fewer invited talks and overseas research opportunities. Women who responded are less likely to have been journal editors, acted as bosses or managers, advised graduate students, served on thesis or dissertation committees, and served on committees for grant agencies. We also show the disproportionate effects of children on women physicists' careers. Women who responded are more likely than men to have changed their work situations upon becoming parents. Mothers are more likely than men and women without children to report that their careers have progressed more slowly than colleagues who finished their degrees at the same time. Furthermore, women are more likely than men to report that their careers affected the decisions they made about marriage and children. The results of this survey draw attention to the need to focus on factors other than representation when discussing the situation of women in physics. 15,000 physicists in 130 countries answered this survey, and across all these countries, women have fewer resources and opportunities and are more affected by cultural expectations concerning child care. Cultural expectations about home and family are difficult to change. However, for women to have successful outcomes and advance in physics, they must have equal access to resources and opportunities.

  14. Estimation and Uncertainty of Recent Carbon Accumulation and Vertical Accretion in Drained and Undrained Forested Peatlands of the Southeastern USA

    Drexler, Judith Z.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Orlando, James; Salas, Antonia; Wurster, Frederic C.; Duberstein, Jamie A.

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine how drainage impacts carbon densities and recent rates (past 50 years) of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in southeastern forested peatlands. We compared these parameters in drained maple-gum (MAPL), Atlantic white cedar (CDR), and pocosin (POC) communities in the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge (GDS) of Virginia/North Carolina and in an intact (undrained) CDR swamp in the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (AR) of North Carolina. Peat cores were analyzed for bulk density, percent organic carbon, and 137Cs and 210Pb. An uncertainty analysis of both 137Cs and 210Pb approaches was used to constrain error at least partially related to mobility of both radioisotopes. GDS peats had lower porosities (89.6% (SD = 1.71) versus 95.3% (0.18)) and higher carbon densities (0.082 (0.021) versus 0.037 (0.009) g C cm-3) than AR. Vertical accretion rates (0.10-0.56 cm yr-1) were used to estimate a time period of 84-362 years for reestablishment of peat lost during the 2011 Lateral West fire at the GDS. Carbon accumulation rates ranged from 51 to 389 g C m-2 yr-1 for all sites. In the drained (GDS) versus intact (AR) CDR sites, carbon accumulation rates were similar with 137Cs (87GDS versus 92AR g C m-2 yr-1) and somewhat less at the GDS than AR as determined with 210Pb (111GDS versus 159AR g C m-2 yr-1). Heightened productivity and high polyphenol content of peat may be responsible for similar rates of carbon accumulation in both drained and intact CDR peatlands.

  15. Saving lives in health: global estimates and country measurement.

    Daniel Low-Beer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Daniel Low-Beer and colleagues provide a response from The Global Fund on the PLOS Medicine article by David McCoy and colleagues critiquing their lives saved assessment models. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  16. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  17. Redefinition and global estimation of basal ecosystem respiration rate

    Yuan, Wenping; Luo, Yiqi; Li, Xianglan

    2011-01-01

    Basal ecosystem respiration rate (BR), the ecosystem respiration rate at a given temperature, is a common and important parameter in empirical models for quantifying ecosystem respiration (ER) globally. Numerous studies have indicated that BR varies in space. However, many empirical ER models sti...

  18. Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis

    Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.

  19. Online Global Land Surface Temperature Estimation from Landsat

    David Parastatidis

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the estimation of land surface temperature (LST for the globe from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 thermal infrared sensors, using different surface emissivity sources. A single channel algorithm is used for consistency among the estimated LST products, whereas the option of using emissivity from different sources provides flexibility for the algorithm’s implementation to any area of interest. The Google Earth Engine (GEE, an advanced earth science data and analysis platform, allows the estimation of LST products for the globe, covering the time period from 1984 to present. To evaluate the method, the estimated LST products were compared against two reference datasets: (a LST products derived from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer, as higher-level products based on the temperature-emissivity separation approach; (b Landsat LST data that have been independently produced, using different approaches. An overall RMSE (root mean square error of 1.52 °C was observed and it was confirmed that the accuracy of the LST product is dependent on the emissivity; different emissivity sources provided different LST accuracies, depending on the surface cover. The LST products, for the full Landsat 5, 7 and 8 archives, are estimated “on-the-fly” and are available on-line via a web application.

  20. International Trade, Pollution Accumulation and Sustainable Growth: A VAR Estimation from the Pearl River Delta Region

    Zuo, Hui; Tian, Lu

    2018-03-01

    In order to investigate international trade influence in the regional environment. This paper constructs a vector auto-regression (VAR) model and estimates the equations with the environment and trade data of the Pearl River Delta Region. The major mechanisms to the lag are discussed and the fit simulation of the environmental change by the international impulse is given. The result shows that impulse of pollution-intensive export deteriorates the environment continuously and impulse of such import improves it. These effects on the environment are insignificantly correlated with contemporary regional income but significantly correlative to early-stage trade feature. To a typical trade-dependent economy, both export and import have hysteresis influence in the regional environment. The lagged impulse will change environmental development in the turning point, maximal pollution level and convergence.

  1. Estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) using accumulated degree-days (ADD) in a temperate region of South Africa.

    Myburgh, Jolandie; L'Abbé, Ericka N; Steyn, Maryna; Becker, Piet J

    2013-06-10

    The validity of the method in which total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree-days (ADD) are used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) is examined. TBS and ADD were recorded for 232 days in northern South Africa, which has temperatures between 17 and 28 °C in summer and 6 and 20 °C in winter. Winter temperatures rarely go below 0°C. Thirty pig carcasses, which weighed between 38 and 91 kg, were used. TBS was scored using the modified method of Megyesi et al. [1]. Temperature was acquired from an on site data logger and the weather station bureau; differences between these two sources were not statistically significant. Using loglinear random-effects maximum likelihood regression, an r(2) value for ADD (0.6227) was produced and linear regression formulae to estimate PMI from ADD with a 95% prediction interval were developed. The data of 16 additional pigs that were placed a year later were then used to validate the accuracy of this method. The actual PMI and ADD were compared to the estimated PMI and ADD produced by the developed formulae as well as the estimated PMIs within the 95% prediction interval. A validation of the study produced poor results as only one pig of 16 fell within the 95% interval when using the formulae, showing that ADD has limited use in the prediction of PMI in a South African setting. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Phase estimation for global defocus correction in optical coherence tomography

    Jensen, Mikkel; Israelsen, Niels Møller; Podoleanu, Adrian

    2017-01-01

    In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization......, and sub-aperture correlations. The estimated phase of a single en-face image is used to extrapolate the non-linear phase at all depths, whichin the end can be used to correct the entire 3-D tomogram, and any other tomogram from the same system.......In this work we investigate three techniques for estimation of the non-linear phase present due to defocus in opticalcoherence tomography, and apply them with the angular spectrum method. The techniques are: Least squarestting the of unwrapped phase of the angular spectrum, iterative optimization...

  3. Estimation of uptake rate constants for PCB congeners accumulated by semipermeable membrane devices and brown treat (Salmo trutta)

    Meadows, J.C.; Echols, K.R.; Huckins, J.N.; Borsuk, F.A.; Carline, R.F.; Tillitt, D.E.

    1998-01-01

    The triolein-filled semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) is a simple and effective method of assessing the presence of waterborne hydrophobic chemicals. Uptake rate constants for individual chemicals are needed to accurately relate the amounts of chemicals accumulated by the SPMD to dissolved water concentrations. Brown trout and SPMDs were exposed to PCB- contaminated groundwater in a spring for 28 days to calculate and compare uptake rates of specific PCB congeners by the two matrixes. Total PCB congener concentrations in water samples from the spring were assessed and corrected for estimated total organic carbon (TOC) sorption to estimate total dissolved concentrations. Whole and dissolved concentrations averaged 4.9 and 3.7 ??g/L, respectively, during the exposure. Total concentrations of PCBs in fish rose from 0.06 to 118.3 ??g/g during the 28-day exposure, while concentrations in the SPMD rose from 0.03 to 203.4 ??g/ g. Uptake rate constants (k1) estimated for SPMDs and brown trout were very similar, with k1 values for SPMDs ranging from one to two times those of the fish. The pattern of congener uptake by the fish and SPMDs was also similar. The rates of uptake generally increased or decreased with increasing K(ow), depending on the assumption of presence or absence of TOC.The triolein-filled semipermeable membrane device (SPMD) is a simple and effective method of assessing the presence of waterborne hydrophobic chemicals. Uptake rate constants for individual chemicals are needed to accurately relate the amounts of chemicals accumulated by the SPMB to dissolved water concentrations. Brown trout and SPMDs were exposed to PCB-contaminated groundwater in a spring for 28 days to calculate and compare uptake rates of specific PCB congeners by the two matrixes. Total PCB congener concentrations in water samples from the spring were assessed and corrected for estimated total organic carbon (TOC) sorption to estimate total dissolved concentrations. Whole and

  4. Global weighted estimates for second-order nondivergence elliptic ...

    Fengping Yao

    2018-03-21

    Mar 21, 2018 ... One of the key a priori estimates in the theory of second-order elliptic .... It is well known that the maximal functions satisfy strong p–p .... Here we prove the following auxiliary result, which will be a crucial ingredient in the proof.

  5. estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for warri

    DJFLEX

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o. 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  6. Estimation of global solar radiation from sunshine hours for Warri ...

    Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate the monthly daily sunshine hours using four parameters during a period of eleven years (1997 to 2007) for Warri, Nigeria (Latitude of 5o 34' 21.0''); the parameters include, Relative Humidity, Maximum and Minimum Temperature, Rainfall and Wind Speed.

  7. Pollution Problem in River Kabul: Accumulation Estimates of Heavy Metals in Native Fish Species.

    Ahmad, Habib; Yousafzai, Ali Muhammad; Siraj, Muhammad; Ahmad, Rashid; Ahmad, Israr; Nadeem, Muhammad Shahid; Ahmad, Waqar; Akbar, Nazia; Muhammad, Khushi

    2015-01-01

    The contamination of aquatic systems with heavy metals is affecting the fish population and hence results in a decline of productivity rate. River Kabul is a transcountry river originating at Paghman province in Afghanistan and inters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan and it is the major source of irrigation and more than 54 fish species have been reported in the river. Present study aimed at the estimation of heavy metals load in the fish living in River Kabul. Heavy metals including chromium, nickel, copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead were determined through atomic absorption spectrophotometer after tissue digestion by adopting standard procedures. Concentrations of these metals were recorded in muscles and liver of five native fish species, namely, Wallago attu, Aorichthys seenghala, Cyprinus carpio, Labeo dyocheilus, and Ompok bimaculatus. The concentrations of chromium, nickel, copper, zinc, and lead were higher in both of the tissues, whereas the concentration of cadmium was comparatively low. However, the concentration of metals was exceeding the RDA (Recommended Dietary Allowance of USA) limits. Hence, continuous fish consumption may create health problems for the consumers. The results of the present study are alarming and suggest implementing environmental laws and initiation of a biomonitoring program of the river.

  8. Comparison of two global digital algorithms for Minkowski tensor estimation

    The geometry of real world objects can be described by Minkowski tensors. Algorithms have been suggested to approximate Minkowski tensors if only a binary image of the object is available. This paper presents implementations of two such algorithms. The theoretical convergence properties...... are confirmed by simulations on test sets, and recommendations for input arguments of the algorithms are given. For increasing resolutions, we obtain more accurate estimators for the Minkowski tensors. Digitisations of more complicated objects are shown to require higher resolutions....

  9. Frailty index of deficit accumulation and falls: data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort.

    Li, Guowei; Ioannidis, George; Pickard, Laura; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Thabane, Lehana; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2014-05-29

    To investigate the association between frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and risk of falls, fractures, death and overnight hospitalizations in women aged 55 years and older. The data were from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) Hamilton Cohort. In this 3-year longitudinal, observational cohort study, women (N=3,985) aged ≥ 55 years were enrolled between May 2008 and March 2009 in Hamilton, Canada. A FI including co-morbidities, activities of daily living, symptoms and signs, and healthcare utilization was constructed using 34 health deficits at baseline. Relationship between the FI and falls, fractures, death and overnight hospitalizations was examined. The FI was significantly associated with age, with a mean rate of deficit accumulation across baseline age of 0.004 or 0.021 (on a log scale) per year. During the third year of follow-up, 1,068 (31.89%) women reported at least one fall. Each increment of 0.01 on the FI was associated with a significantly increased risk of falls during the third year of follow-up (odds ratio [OR]: 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.03). The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.67-0.71). Results of subgroup and sensitivity analyses indicated the relationship between the FI and risk of falls was robust, while bootstrap analysis judged its internal validation. The FI was significantly related to fractures (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03), death (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.03-1.06) during the 3-year follow-up period and overnight hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.02-1.03) for an increase of 0.01 on the FI during the third year of follow-up. Measured by per standard deviation (SD) increment of the FI, the ORs were 1.21 and 1.40 for falls and death respectively, while the HR was 1.17 for fractures and the IRR was 1.18 for overnight hospitalizations respectively. The FI of deficit accumulation increased with chronological age

  10. Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

    Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

    1990-01-01

    An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

  11. Estimation of Subdaily Polar Motion with the Global Positioning System During the Spoch '92 Campaign

    Ibanez-Meier, R.; Freedman, A. P.; Herring, T. A.; Gross, R. S.; Lichten, S. M.; Lindqwister, U. J.

    1994-01-01

    Data collected over six days from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking network during the Epoch '92 campaign are used to estimate variations of the Earth's pole position every 30 minutes.

  12. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in

  13. Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

    Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

    2004-01-01

    At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

  14. Distancing from experienced self: how global versus local perception affects estimation of psychological distance

    Liberman, N.; Förster, J.

    2009-01-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition).

  15. Estimation of global network statistics from incomplete data.

    Catherine A Bliss

    Full Text Available Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

  16. New global fire emission estimates and evaluation of volatile organic compounds

    C. Wiedinmyer; L. K. Emmons; S. K. Akagi; R. J. Yokelson; J. J. Orlando; J. A. Al-Saadi; A. J. Soja

    2010-01-01

    A daily, high-resolution, global fire emissions model has been built to estimate emissions from open burning for air quality modeling applications: The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN version 1). The model framework uses daily fire detections from the MODIS instruments and updated emission factors, specifically for speciated non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). Global...

  17. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  18. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    Matthew R Smith

    Full Text Available Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1 data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2 household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against

  19. Estimating Global Seafloor Total Organic Carbon Using a Machine Learning Technique and Its Relevance to Methane Hydrates

    Lee, T. R.; Wood, W. T.; Dale, J.

    2017-12-01

    Empirical and theoretical models of sub-seafloor organic matter transformation, degradation and methanogenesis require estimates of initial seafloor total organic carbon (TOC). This subsurface methane, under the appropriate geophysical and geochemical conditions may manifest as methane hydrate deposits. Despite the importance of seafloor TOC, actual observations of TOC in the world's oceans are sparse and large regions of the seafloor yet remain unmeasured. To provide an estimate in areas where observations are limited or non-existent, we have implemented interpolation techniques that rely on existing data sets. Recent geospatial analyses have provided accurate accounts of global geophysical and geochemical properties (e.g. crustal heat flow, seafloor biomass, porosity) through machine learning interpolation techniques. These techniques find correlations between the desired quantity (in this case TOC) and other quantities (predictors, e.g. bathymetry, distance from coast, etc.) that are more widely known. Predictions (with uncertainties) of seafloor TOC in regions lacking direct observations are made based on the correlations. Global distribution of seafloor TOC at 1 x 1 arc-degree resolution was estimated from a dataset of seafloor TOC compiled by Seiter et al. [2004] and a non-parametric (i.e. data-driven) machine learning algorithm, specifically k-nearest neighbors (KNN). Built-in predictor selection and a ten-fold validation technique generated statistically optimal estimates of seafloor TOC and uncertainties. In addition, inexperience was estimated. Inexperience is effectively the distance in parameter space to the single nearest neighbor, and it indicates geographic locations where future data collection would most benefit prediction accuracy. These improved geospatial estimates of TOC in data deficient areas will provide new constraints on methane production and subsequent methane hydrate accumulation.

  20. Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

    Jain, Atul K.

    Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.

  1. Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007.

    Simon I Hay

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches.In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC, and Myanmar (Burma, where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national estimates were ranked

  2. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produ......-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.......The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce...... similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries...

  3. Distancing from experienced self: how global-versus-local perception affects estimation of psychological distance.

    Liberman, Nira; Förster, Jens

    2009-08-01

    In 4 studies, the authors examined the prediction derived from construal level theory (CLT) that higher level of perceptual construal would enhance estimated egocentric psychological distance. The authors primed participants with global perception, local perception, or both (the control condition). Relative to the control condition, global processing made participants estimate larger psychological distances in time (Study 1), space (Study 2), social distance (Study 3), and hypotheticality (Study 4). Local processing had the opposite effect. Consistent with CLT, all studies show that the effect of global-versus-local processing did emerge when participants estimated egocentric distances, which are distances from the experienced self in the here and now, but did not emerge with temporal distances not from now (Study 1), spatial distances not from here (Study 2), social distances not from the self (Study 3), or hypothetical events that did not involve altering an experienced reality (Study 4).

  4. Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates

    Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.

    1994-01-01

    Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change

  5. Global gradient estimates for divergence-type elliptic problems involving general nonlinear operators

    Cho, Yumi

    2018-05-01

    We study nonlinear elliptic problems with nonstandard growth and ellipticity related to an N-function. We establish global Calderón-Zygmund estimates of the weak solutions in the framework of Orlicz spaces over bounded non-smooth domains. Moreover, we prove a global regularity result for asymptotically regular problems which are getting close to the regular problems considered, when the gradient variable goes to infinity.

  6. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    Zarzalejo, L.F.; Ramirez, L.; Polo, J. [DER-CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain). Renewable Energy Dept.

    2005-07-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models. (author)

  7. Artificial intelligence techniques applied to hourly global irradiance estimation from satellite-derived cloud index

    Zarzalejo, Luis F.; Ramirez, Lourdes; Polo, Jesus

    2005-01-01

    Artificial intelligence techniques, such as fuzzy logic and neural networks, have been used for estimating hourly global radiation from satellite images. The models have been fitted to measured global irradiance data from 15 Spanish terrestrial stations. Both satellite imaging data and terrestrial information from the years 1994, 1995 and 1996 were used. The results of these artificial intelligence models were compared to a multivariate regression based upon Heliosat I model. A general better behaviour was observed for the artificial intelligence models

  8. Improving Global Gross Primary Productivity Estimates by Computing Optimum Light Use Efficiencies Using Flux Tower Data

    Madani, Nima; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2017-11-01

    In the light use efficiency (LUE) approach of estimating the gross primary productivity (GPP), plant productivity is linearly related to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation assuming that plants absorb and convert solar energy into biomass within a maximum LUE (LUEmax) rate, which is assumed to vary conservatively within a given biome type. However, it has been shown that photosynthetic efficiency can vary within biomes. In this study, we used 149 global CO2 flux towers to derive the optimum LUE (LUEopt) under prevailing climate conditions for each tower location, stratified according to model training and test sites. Unlike LUEmax, LUEopt varies according to heterogeneous landscape characteristics and species traits. The LUEopt data showed large spatial variability within and between biome types, so that a simple biome classification explained only 29% of LUEopt variability over 95 global tower training sites. The use of explanatory variables in a mixed effect regression model explained 62.2% of the spatial variability in tower LUEopt data. The resulting regression model was used for global extrapolation of the LUEopt data and GPP estimation. The GPP estimated using the new LUEopt map showed significant improvement relative to global tower data, including a 15% R2 increase and 34% root-mean-square error reduction relative to baseline GPP calculations derived from biome-specific LUEmax constants. The new global LUEopt map is expected to improve the performance of LUE-based GPP algorithms for better assessment and monitoring of global terrestrial productivity and carbon dynamics.

  9. A fuzzy regression with support vector machine approach to the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    Baser, Furkan; Demirhan, Haydar

    2017-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the amount of horizontal global solar radiation for a particular field is an important input for decision processes in solar radiation investments. In this article, we focus on the estimation of yearly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation by using an approach that utilizes fuzzy regression functions with support vector machine (FRF-SVM). This approach is not seriously affected by outlier observations and does not suffer from the over-fitting problem. To demonstrate the utility of the FRF-SVM approach in the estimation of horizontal global solar radiation, we conduct an empirical study over a dataset collected in Turkey and applied the FRF-SVM approach with several kernel functions. Then, we compare the estimation accuracy of the FRF-SVM approach to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system and a coplot supported-genetic programming approach. We observe that the FRF-SVM approach with a Gaussian kernel function is not affected by both outliers and over-fitting problem and gives the most accurate estimates of horizontal global solar radiation among the applied approaches. Consequently, the use of hybrid fuzzy functions and support vector machine approaches is found beneficial in long-term forecasting of horizontal global solar radiation over a region with complex climatic and terrestrial characteristics. - Highlights: • A fuzzy regression functions with support vector machines approach is proposed. • The approach is robust against outlier observations and over-fitting problem. • Estimation accuracy of the model is superior to several existent alternatives. • A new solar radiation estimation model is proposed for the region of Turkey. • The model is useful under complex terrestrial and climatic conditions.

  10. Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

    Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

  11. Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis: a review of the epidemiology and estimation of the global burden.

    Platt, Lauren R; Estívariz, Concepción F; Sutter, Roland W

    2014-11-01

    Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) is a rare adverse event associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). This review summarizes the epidemiology and provides a global burden estimate. A literature review was conducted to abstract the epidemiology and calculate the risk of VAPP. A bootstrap method was applied to calculate global VAPP burden estimates. Trends in VAPP epidemiology varied by country income level. In the low-income country, the majority of cases occurred in individuals who had received >3 doses of OPV (63%), whereas in middle and high-income countries, most cases occurred in recipients after their first OPV dose or unvaccinated contacts (81%). Using all risk estimates, VAPP risk was 4.7 cases per million births (range, 2.4-9.7), leading to a global annual burden estimate of 498 cases (range, 255-1018). If the analysis is limited to estimates from countries that currently use OPV, the VAPP risk is 3.8 cases per million births (range, 2.9-4.7) and a burden of 399 cases (range, 306-490). Because many high-income countries have replaced OPV with inactivated poliovirus vaccine, the VAPP burden is concentrated in lower-income countries. The planned universal introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine is likely to substantially decrease the global VAPP burden by 80%-90%. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. A critical review on the estimation of daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration

    Yorukoglu, Mehmet; Celik, Ali Naci

    2006-01-01

    Models such as the Angstroem-Prescott equation are used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine duration. In the literature, researchers investigate either the goodness of the model itself or the goodness of the estimation of global solar radiation based on a set of statistical parameters such as R 2 , RMSE, MBE, MABE, MPE and MAPE. If the former is the objective, then the statistical analysis should naturally be based on H/H o - S/S o (the ratio of daily solar radiation to extraterrestrial daily solar radiation vs. the ratio of sunshine duration to day length). If the latter is investigated, then the statistical analysis should be based on H c - H m (calculated daily solar radiation vs. measured daily solar radiation). A literature survey undertaken in the present article showed that these two data sets are apt to be confused, drawing the statistical parameters to be used in assessment of the estimation model from the latter data set or the vice versa set. The statistical parameters are clearly derived from the basics for both of the data sets, and the inconsistencies caused by this confusion and other factors are exposed. A case study of the estimation models and global solar radiation estimation from sunshine duration is presented using five different models (linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential), which are the most common models used in the literature, based on 6 years long measured hourly global solar radiation data

  13. Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012.

    Katharine J Looker

    Full Text Available Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1 commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated.We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital.We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440-3878 million aged 0-49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%, with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67-212 million people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific.The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection.

  14. Spatio-temporal reconstruction of air temperature maps and their application to estimate rice growing season heat accumulation using multi-temporal MODIS data.

    Zhang, Li-wen; Huang, Jing-feng; Guo, Rui-fang; Li, Xin-xing; Sun, Wen-bo; Wang, Xiu-zhen

    2013-02-01

    The accumulation of thermal time usually represents the local heat resources to drive crop growth. Maps of temperature-based agro-meteorological indices are commonly generated by the spatial interpolation of data collected from meteorological stations with coarse geographic continuity. To solve the critical problems of estimating air temperature (T(a)) and filling in missing pixels due to cloudy and low-quality images in growing degree days (GDDs) calculation from remotely sensed data, a novel spatio-temporal algorithm for T(a) estimation from Terra and Aqua moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data was proposed. This is a preliminary study to calculate heat accumulation, expressed in accumulative growing degree days (AGDDs) above 10 °C, from reconstructed T(a) based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data. The verification results of maximum T(a), minimum T(a), GDD, and AGDD from MODIS-derived data to meteorological calculation were all satisfied with high correlations over 0.01 significant levels. Overall, MODIS-derived AGDD was slightly underestimated with almost 10% relative error. However, the feasibility of employing AGDD anomaly maps to characterize the 2001-2010 spatio-temporal variability of heat accumulation and estimating the 2011 heat accumulation distribution using only MODIS data was finally demonstrated in the current paper. Our study may supply a novel way to calculate AGDD in heat-related study concerning crop growth monitoring, agricultural climatic regionalization, and agro-meteorological disaster detection at the regional scale.

  15. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    Paul R Torgerson

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

  16. Identifying grain-size dependent errors on global forest area estimates and carbon studies

    Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

    2008-01-01

    Satellite-derived coarse-resolution data are typically used for conducting global analyses. But the forest areas estimated from coarse-resolution maps (e.g., 1 km) inevitably differ from a corresponding fine-resolution map (such as a 30-m map) that would be closer to ground truth. A better understanding of changes in grain size on area estimation will improve our...

  17. Importance of representing optical depth variability for estimates of global line-shaped contrail radiative forcing.

    Kärcher, Bernd; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Ponater, Michael; Frömming, Christine

    2010-11-09

    Estimates of the global radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails differ mainly due to the large uncertainty in contrail optical depth. Most contrails are optically thin so that their radiative forcing is roughly proportional to their optical depth and increases with contrail coverage. In recent assessments, the best estimate of mean contrail radiative forcing was significantly reduced, because global climate model simulations pointed at lower optical depth values than earlier studies. We revise these estimates by comparing the probability distribution of contrail optical depth diagnosed with a climate model with the distribution derived from a microphysical, cloud-scale model constrained by satellite observations over the United States. By assuming that the optical depth distribution from the cloud model is more realistic than that from the climate model, and by taking the difference between the observed and simulated optical depth over the United States as globally representative, we quantify uncertainties in the climate model's diagnostic contrail parameterization. Revising the climate model results accordingly increases the global mean radiative forcing estimate for line-shaped contrails by a factor of 3.3, from 3.5 mW/m(2) to 11.6 mW/m(2) for the year 1992. Furthermore, the satellite observations and the cloud model point at higher global mean optical depth of detectable contrails than often assumed in radiative transfer (off-line) studies. Therefore, we correct estimates of contrail radiative forcing from off-line studies as well. We suggest that the global net radiative forcing of line-shaped persistent contrails is in the range 8-20 mW/m(2) for the air traffic in the year 2000.

  18. Global CO2 efficiency: Country-wise estimates using a stochastic cost frontier

    Herrala, Risto; Goel, Rajeev K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efficiency by employing a stochastic cost frontier analysis of about 170 countries in 1997 and 2007. The main contribution lies in providing a new approach to environmental efficiency estimation, in which the efficiency estimates quantify the distance from the policy objective of minimum emissions. We are able to examine a very large pool of nations and provide country-wise efficiency estimates. We estimate three econometric models, corresponding with alternative interpretations of the Cancun vision (Conference of the Parties 2011). The models reveal progress in global environmental efficiency during a preceding decade. The estimates indicate vast differences in efficiency levels, and efficiency changes across countries. The highest efficiency levels are observed in Africa and Europe, while the lowest are clustered around China. The largest efficiency gains were observed in central and eastern Europe. CO 2 efficiency also improved in the US and China, the two largest emitters, but their ranking in terms of CO 2 efficiency deteriorated. Policy implications are discussed. - Highlights: ► We estimate global environmental efficiency in line with the Cancun vision, using a stochastic cost frontier. ► The study covers 170 countries during a 10 year period, ending in 2007. ► The biggest improvements occurred in Europe, and efficiency falls in South America. ► The efficiency ranking of US and China, the largest emitters, deteriorated. ► In 2007, highest efficiency was observed in Africa and Europe, and the lowest around China.

  19. Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

    Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

    2017-05-16

    In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

  20. Global Picture of Protein Regulation in Response to Dibutyl Phthalate (DBP) Stress of Two Brassica parachinensis Cultivars Differing in DBP Accumulation.

    Zhao, Hai-Ming; Huang, He-Biao; Du, Huan; Xiang, Lei; Mo, Ce-Hui; Li, Yan-Wen; Cai, Quan-Ying; Li, Hui; Liu, Jie-Sheng; Zhou, Dong-Mei; Wong, Ming-Hung

    2018-05-09

    iTRAQ analysis was used to map the proteomes of two Brassica parachinensis cultivars that differed in dibutyl phthalate (DBP) accumulation. A total of 5699 proteins were identified to obtain 152 differentially regulated proteins, of which 64 and 48 were specific to a high- and a low-DBP-accumulation cultivar, respectively. Genotype-specific biological processes were involved in coping with DBP stress, accounting for the variation in DBP tolerance and accumulation. Formation of high DBP accumulation in B. parachinensis might attribute to the more effective regulation of protein expression in physiology and metabolism, including (a) enhanced cell wall biosynthesis and modification, (b) better maintenance of photosynthesis and energy balance, (c) greatly improved total capacity for antioxidation and detoxification, and (d) enhanced cellular transport and signal transduction. Our novel findings contribute to a global picture of DBP-induced alterations of protein profiles in crops and provide valuable information for the development of molecular-assisted breeds of low-accumulation cultivars.

  1. Methodological framework for World Health Organization estimates of the global burden of foodborne disease

    B. Devleesschauwer (Brecht); J.A. Haagsma (Juanita); F.J. Angulo (Frederick); D.C. Bellinger (David); D. Cole (Dana); D. Döpfer (Dörte); A. Fazil (Aamir); E.M. Fèvre (Eric); H.J. Gibb (Herman); T. Hald (Tine); M.D. Kirk (Martyn); R.J. Lake (Robin); C. Maertens De Noordhout (Charline); C. Mathers (Colin); S.A. McDonald (Scott); S.M. Pires (Sara); N. Speybroeck (Niko); M.K. Thomas (Kate); D. Torgerson; F. Wu (Felicia); A.H. Havelaar (Arie); N. Praet (Nicolas)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force

  2. A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model-based assessments

    Eitelberg, D.A.; van Vliet, J.; Verburg, P.H.

    2015-01-01

    The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to

  3. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  4. Synthesizing Global and Local Datasets to Estimate Jurisdictional Forest Carbon Fluxes in Berau, Indonesia.

    Griscom, Bronson W; Ellis, Peter W; Baccini, Alessandro; Marthinus, Delon; Evans, Jeffrey S; Ruslandi

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts are increasingly being implemented at the scale of sub-national jurisdictions in order to mitigate global climate change and provide other ecosystem services. We see an urgent need for robust estimates of historic forest carbon emissions at this scale, as the basis for credible measures of climate and other benefits achieved. Despite the arrival of a new generation of global datasets on forest area change and biomass, confusion remains about how to produce credible jurisdictional estimates of forest emissions. We demonstrate a method for estimating the relevant historic forest carbon fluxes within the Regency of Berau in eastern Borneo, Indonesia. Our method integrates best available global and local datasets, and includes a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty at the regency scale. We find that Berau generated 8.91 ± 1.99 million tonnes of net CO2 emissions per year during 2000-2010. Berau is an early frontier landscape where gross emissions are 12 times higher than gross sequestration. Yet most (85%) of Berau's original forests are still standing. The majority of net emissions were due to conversion of native forests to unspecified agriculture (43% of total), oil palm (28%), and fiber plantations (9%). Most of the remainder was due to legal commercial selective logging (17%). Our overall uncertainty estimate offers an independent basis for assessing three other estimates for Berau. Two other estimates were above the upper end of our uncertainty range. We emphasize the importance of including an uncertainty range for all parameters of the emissions equation to generate a comprehensive uncertainty estimate-which has not been done before. We believe comprehensive estimates of carbon flux uncertainty are increasingly important as national and international institutions are challenged with comparing alternative estimates and identifying a credible range of historic emissions values.

  5. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling

    Sasai, T.; Murakami, K.; Kato, S.; Matsunaga, T.; Saigusa, N.; Hiraki, K.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. However, most studies, which aimed at the estimation of carbon exchanges between ecosystem and atmosphere, remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. In this study, we show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. As methodology for computing the exchanges, we 1) developed a global 1km-grid climate and satellite dataset based on the approach in Setoyama and Sasai (2013); 2) used the satellite-driven biosphere model (Biosphere model integrating Eco-physiological And Mechanistic approaches using Satellite data: BEAMS) (Sasai et al., 2005, 2007, 2011); 3) simulated the carbon exchanges by using the new dataset and BEAMS by the use of a supercomputer that includes 1280 CPU and 320 GPGPU cores (GOSAT RCF of NIES). As a result, we could develop a global uniform system for realistically estimating terrestrial carbon exchange, and evaluate net ecosystem production in each community level; leading to obtain highly detailed understanding of terrestrial carbon exchanges.

  6. Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; hide

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  7. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

    2016-12-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

  8. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  9. WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

    Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

  10. Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

    Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many

  11. Variability in the carbon storage of seagrass habitats and its implications for global estimates of blue carbon ecosystem service.

    Paul S Lavery

    Full Text Available The recent focus on carbon trading has intensified interest in 'Blue Carbon'-carbon sequestered by coastal vegetated ecosystems, particularly seagrasses. Most information on seagrass carbon storage is derived from studies of a single species, Posidonia oceanica, from the Mediterranean Sea. We surveyed 17 Australian seagrass habitats to assess the variability in their sedimentary organic carbon (C org stocks. The habitats encompassed 10 species, in mono-specific or mixed meadows, depositional to exposed habitats and temperate to tropical habitats. There was an 18-fold difference in the Corg stock (1.09-20.14 mg C org cm(-3 for a temperate Posidonia sinuosa and a temperate, estuarine P. australis meadow, respectively. Integrated over the top 25 cm of sediment, this equated to an areal stock of 262-4833 g C org m(-2. For some species, there was an effect of water depth on the C org stocks, with greater stocks in deeper sites; no differences were found among sub-tidal and inter-tidal habitats. The estimated carbon storage in Australian seagrass ecosystems, taking into account inter-habitat variability, was 155 Mt. At a 2014-15 fixed carbon price of A$25.40 t(-1 and an estimated market price of $35 t(-1 in 2020, the C org stock in the top 25 cm of seagrass habitats has a potential value of $AUD 3.9-5.4 bill. The estimates of annual C org accumulation by Australian seagrasses ranged from 0.093 to 6.15 Mt, with a most probable estimate of 0.93 Mt y(-1 (10.1 t. km(-2 y(-1. These estimates, while large, were one-third of those that would be calculated if inter-habitat variability in carbon stocks were not taken into account. We conclude that there is an urgent need for more information on the variability in seagrass carbon stock and accumulation rates, and the factors driving this variability, in order to improve global estimates of seagrass Blue Carbon storage.

  12. Estimating 40 years of nitrogen deposition in global biomes using the SCIAMACHY NO2 column

    Lu, Xuehe; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Jin, Jiaxin

    2016-01-01

    Owing to human activity, global nitrogen (N) cycles have been altered. In the past 100 years, global N deposition has increased. Currently, the monitoring and estimating of N deposition and the evaluation of its effects on global carbon budgets are the focus of many researchers. NO2 columns retrieved by space-borne sensors provide us with a new way of exploring global N cycles and these have the ability to estimate N deposition. However, the time range limitation of NO2 columns makes the estimation of long timescale N deposition difficult. In this study we used ground-based NOx emission data to expand the density of NO2columns, and 40 years of N deposition (1970–2009) was inverted using the multivariate linear model with expanded NO2 columns. The dynamic of N deposition was examined in both global and biome scales. The results show that the average N deposition was 0.34 g N m–2 year–1 in the 2000s, which was an increase of 38.4% compared with the 1970s’. The total N deposition in different biomes is unbalanced. N deposition is only 38.0% of the global total in forest biomes; this is made up of 25.9%, 11.3, and 0.7% in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, respectively. As N-limited biomes, there was little increase of N deposition in boreal forests. However, N deposition has increased by a total of 59.6% in tropical forests and croplands, which are N-rich biomes. Such characteristics may influence the effects on global carbon budgets.

  13. The Global Burden of Latent Tuberculosis Infection: A Re-estimation Using Mathematical Modelling.

    Rein M G J Houben

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The existing estimate of the global burden of latent TB infection (LTBI as "one-third" of the world population is nearly 20 y old. Given the importance of controlling LTBI as part of the End TB Strategy for eliminating TB by 2050, changes in demography and scientific understanding, and progress in TB control, it is important to re-assess the global burden of LTBI.We constructed trends in annual risk in infection (ARI for countries between 1934 and 2014 using a combination of direct estimates of ARI from LTBI surveys (131 surveys from 1950 to 2011 and indirect estimates of ARI calculated from World Health Organisation (WHO estimates of smear positive TB prevalence from 1990 to 2014. Gaussian process regression was used to generate ARIs for country-years without data and to represent uncertainty. Estimated ARI time-series were applied to the demography in each country to calculate the number and proportions of individuals infected, recently infected (infected within 2 y, and recently infected with isoniazid (INH-resistant strains. Resulting estimates were aggregated by WHO region. We estimated the contribution of existing infections to TB incidence in 2035 and 2050. In 2014, the global burden of LTBI was 23.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20.4%-26.4%, amounting to approximately 1.7 billion people. WHO South-East Asia, Western-Pacific, and Africa regions had the highest prevalence and accounted for around 80% of those with LTBI. Prevalence of recent infection was 0.8% (95% UI: 0.7%-0.9% of the global population, amounting to 55.5 (95% UI: 48.2-63.8 million individuals currently at high risk of TB disease, of which 10.9% (95% UI:10.2%-11.8% was isoniazid-resistant. Current LTBI alone, assuming no additional infections from 2015 onwards, would be expected to generate TB incidences in the region of 16.5 per 100,000 per year in 2035 and 8.3 per 100,000 per year in 2050. Limitations included the quantity and methodological heterogeneity of direct ARI

  14. Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease.

    Brecht Devleesschauwer

    Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach. To accomplish this task, the following workflow was defined: outline of disease models and collection of epidemiological data; design and completion of a database template; development of an imputation model; identification of disability weights; probabilistic burden assessment; and estimating the proportion of the disease burden by each hazard that is attributable to exposure by food (i.e., source attribution. All computations were performed in R and the different functions were compiled in the R package 'FERG'. Traceability and transparency were ensured by sharing results and methods in an interactive way with all FERG members throughout the process.We developed a comprehensive framework for estimating the global burden of FBDs, in which methodological simplicity and transparency were key elements. All the tools developed have been made available and can be translated into a user-friendly national toolkit for studying and monitoring food safety at the local level.

  15. Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

    Adler, Robert; Gu, Guojun; Huffman, George

    2012-01-01

    A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a

  16. Estimation of the Carbon Footprint and Global Warming Potential in Rice Production Systems

    Dastan, S.; Soltani, F.; Noormohamadi, G.; Madani, H.; Yadi, R.

    2016-01-01

    Optimal management approaches can be adopted in order to increase crop productivity and lower the carbon footprint of grain products. The objective of this study was to estimate the carbon (C) footprint and global warming potential of rice production systems. In this experiment, rice production systems (including SRI, improved and conventional) were studied. All activities, field operations and data in production methods and at different input rates were monitored and recorded during 2012. Results showed that average global warming potential across production systems was equal to 2803.25 kg CO 2 -eq ha-1. The highest and least global warming potential were observed in the SRI and conventional systems, respectively. global warming potential per unit energy input was the least and most in SRI and conventional systems, respectively. Also, the SRI and conventional systems had the maximum and minimum global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. SRI and conventional system had the greatest and least global warming potential per unit energy output, respectively. Therefore, the optimal management approach found in SRI resulted in a reduction in GHGs, global warming potential and the carbon footprint.

  17. Testing a statistical method of global mean palotemperature estimations in a long climate simulation

    Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    Current statistical methods of reconstructing the climate of the last centuries are based on statistical models linking climate observations (temperature, sea-level-pressure) and proxy-climate data (tree-ring chronologies, ice-cores isotope concentrations, varved sediments, etc.). These models are calibrated in the instrumental period, and the longer time series of proxy data are then used to estimate the past evolution of the climate variables. Using such methods the global mean temperature of the last 600 years has been recently estimated. In this work this method of reconstruction is tested using data from a very long simulation with a climate model. This testing allows to estimate the errors of the estimations as a function of the number of proxy data and the time scale at which the estimations are probably reliable. (orig.)

  18. Estimating the Global Agricultural Impact of Solar Radiation Management using Volcanic Eruptions as Natural Experiments

    Proctor, J.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burney, J. A.; Burke, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2017-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) is increasingly considered an option for managing global temperatures, yet the economic impacts of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Though SRM may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, its impacts from concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern SRM proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols (SS) created by the eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, how those changes in sunlight impacted global crop yields, and the total effect that SS may have on yields in an SRM scenario when the climatic and sunlight effects are jointly considered. We find that the sunlight-mediated impact of SS on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice, wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a geoengineering scenario using SS-based SRM from 2050-2069, we find that SRM damages due to scattering sunlight are roughly equal in magnitude to SRM benefits from cooling. This suggests that SRM - if deployed using SS similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic - would attenuate little of the damages from climate change to global agriculture on net. Our approach could be extended to study SRM impacts on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

  19. A hybrid computational approach to estimate solar global radiation: An empirical evidence from Iran

    Mostafavi, Elham Sadat; Ramiyani, Sara Saeidi; Sarvar, Rahim; Moud, Hashem Izadi; Mousavi, Seyyed Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an innovative hybrid approach for the estimation of the solar global radiation. New prediction equations were developed for the global radiation using an integrated search method of genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The solar radiation was formulated in terms of several climatological and meteorological parameters. Comprehensive databases containing monthly data collected for 6 years in two cities of Iran were used to develop GP/SA-based models. Separate models were established for each city. The generalization of the models was verified using a separate testing database. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the contribution of the parameters affecting the solar radiation. The derived models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation and notably outperform the existing models. -- Highlights: ► A hybrid approach is presented for the estimation of the solar global radiation. ► The proposed method integrates the capabilities of GP and SA. ► Several climatological and meteorological parameters are included in the analysis. ► The GP/SA models make accurate predictions of the solar global radiation.

  20. Incorrectly Interpreting the Carbon Mass Balance Technique Leads to Biased Emissions Estimates from Global Vegetation Fires

    Surawski, N. C.; Sullivan, A. L.; Roxburgh, S. H.; Meyer, M.; Polglase, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Vegetation fires are a complex phenomenon and have a range of global impacts including influences on climate. Even though fire is a necessary disturbance for the maintenance of some ecosystems, a range of anthropogenically deleterious consequences are associated with it, such as damage to assets and infrastructure, loss of life, as well as degradation to air quality leading to negative impacts on human health. Estimating carbon emissions from fire relies on a carbon mass balance technique which has evolved with two different interpretations in the fire emissions community. Databases reporting global fire emissions estimates use an approach based on `consumed biomass' which is an approximation to the biogeochemically correct `burnt carbon' approach. Disagreement between the two methods occurs because the `consumed biomass' accounting technique assumes that all burnt carbon is volatilized and emitted. By undertaking a global review of the fraction of burnt carbon emitted to the atmosphere, we show that the `consumed biomass' accounting approach overestimates global carbon emissions by 4.0%, or 100 Teragrams, annually. The required correction is significant and represents 9% of the net global forest carbon sink estimated annually. To correctly partition burnt carbon between that emitted to the atmosphere and that remaining as a post-fire residue requires the post-burn carbon content to be estimated, which is quite often not undertaken in atmospheric emissions studies. To broaden our understanding of ecosystem carbon fluxes, it is recommended that the change in carbon content associated with burnt residues be accounted for. Apart from correctly partitioning burnt carbon between the emitted and residue pools, it enables an accounting approach which can assess the efficacy of fire management operations targeted at sequestering carbon from fire. These findings are particularly relevant for the second commitment period for the Kyoto protocol, since improved landscape fire

  1. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    Tarantola, S.; Gatelli, D.; Mara, T.A.

    2006-01-01

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA

  2. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices

    Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 361, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Mara, T.A. [Laboratory of Industrial engineering, University of Reunion Island, BP 7151, 15 avenue Rene Cassin, 97 715 Saint-Denis (France)

    2006-06-15

    We present two methods for the estimation of main effects in global sensitivity analysis. The methods adopt Satterthwaite's application of random balance designs in regression problems, and extend it to sensitivity analysis of model output for non-linear, non-additive models. Finite as well as infinite ranges for model input factors are allowed. The methods are easier to implement than any other method available for global sensitivity analysis, and reduce significantly the computational cost of the analysis. We test their performance on different test cases, including an international benchmark on safety assessment for nuclear waste disposal originally carried out by OECD/NEA.

  3. Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

    An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

  4. Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

    Linwood Pendleton

    Full Text Available Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'. Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.

  5. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Murray, Brian C.; Crooks, Stephen; Jenkins, W. Aaron; Sifleet, Samantha; Craft, Christopher; Fourqurean, James W.; Kauffman, J. Boone; Marbà, Núria; Megonigal, Patrick; Pidgeon, Emily; Herr, Dorothee; Gordon, David; Baldera, Alexis

    2012-01-01

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems—marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses—that may be lost with habitat destruction (‘conversion’). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this ‘blue carbon’ can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15–1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3–19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6–42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats. PMID:22962585

  6. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related sustainable development goals.

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2016-01-01

    The millennium development goals triggered an increased demand for data on child and maternal mortalities for monitoring progress. With the advent of the sustainable development goals and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition toward non-communicable diseases, policymakers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper discusses lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease (BOD) study on capacity development on NHEs and discusses the contributions and limitations of GHEs in informing policies at the country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and subnational levels. Initially, the quality of cause-of-death reporting in death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This method helped to improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and an effective interface between researchers and decision-makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, whereas subnational data are intended to be used by various subnational partners. Although GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  7. Global estimate of lichen and bryophyte contributions to forest precipitation interception

    Van Stan, John; Porada, Philipp; Kleidon, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Interception of precipitation by forest canopies plays an important role in its partitioning to evaporation, transpiration and runoff. Field observations show arboreal lichens and bryophytes can substantially enhance forests' precipitation storage and evaporation. However, representations of canopy interception in global land surface models currently ignore arboreal lichen and bryophyte contributions. This study uses the lichen and bryophyte model (LiBry) to provide the first process-based modelling approach estimating these organisms' contributions to canopy water storage and evaporation. The global mean value of forest water storage capacity increased significantly from 0.87 mm to 1.33 mm by the inclusion of arboreal poikilohydric organisms. Global forest canopy evaporation of intercepted precipitation was also greatly enhanced by 44%. Ratio of total versus bare canopy global evaporation exceeded 2 in many forested regions. This altered global patterns in canopy water storage, evaporation, and ultimately the proportion of rainfall evaporated. A sensitivity analysis was also performed. Results indicate rainfall interception is of larger magnitude than previously reported by global land surface modelling work because of the important role of lichen and bryophytes in rainfall interception.

  8. Continuous Estimates of Surface Density and Annual Snow Accumulation with Multi-Channel Snow/Firn Penetrating Radar in the Percolation Zone, Western Greenland Ice Sheet

    Meehan, T.; Marshall, H. P.; Bradford, J.; Hawley, R. L.; Osterberg, E. C.; McCarthy, F.; Lewis, G.; Graeter, K.

    2017-12-01

    A priority of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) prediction is ascertaining the surface density and annual snow accumulation. These forcing data can be supplied into firn compaction models and used to tune Regional Climate Models (RCM). RCMs do not accurately capture subtle changes in the snow accumulation gradient. Additionally, leading RCMs disagree among each other and with accumulation studies in regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over large distances and temporal scales. RCMs tend to yield inconsistencies over GrIS because of sparse and outdated validation data in the reanalysis pool. Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) implemented multi-channel 500 MHz Radar in multi-offset configuration throughout two traverse campaigns totaling greater than 3500 km along the western percolation zone of GrIS. The multi-channel radar has the capability of continuously estimating snow depth, average density, and annual snow accumulation, expressed at 95% confidence (+-) 0.15 m, (+-) 17 kgm-3, (+-) 0.04 m w.e. respectively, by examination of the primary reflection return from the previous year's summer surface.

  9. Approaches to Refining Estimates of Global Burden and Economics of Dengue

    Shepard, Donald S.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Betancourt-Cravioto, Miguel; Guzmán, María G.; Halstead, Scott B.; Harris, Eva; Mudin, Rose Nani; Murray, Kristy O.; Tapia-Conyer, Roberto; Gubler, Duane J.

    2014-01-01

    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools

  10. Estimation of erosion-accumulative processes at the Inia River’s mouth near high-rise construction zones.

    Sineeva Natalya

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Our study relevance is due to the increasing man-made impact on water bodies and associated land resources within the urban areas, as a consequence, by a change in the morphology and dynamics of Rivers’ canals. This leads to the need to predict the development of erosion-accumulation processes, especially within the built-up urban areas. Purpose of the study is to develop programs on the assessment of erosion-accumulation processes at a water body, a mouth area of the Inia River, in the of perspective high-rise construction zone of a residential microdistrict, the place, where floodplain-channel complex is intensively expected to develop. Results of the study: Within the velocities of the water flow comparing, full-scale measured conditions, and calculated from the model, a slight discrepancy was recorded. This allows us to say that the numerical model reliably describes the physical processes developing in the River. The carried out calculations to assess the direction and intensity of the channel re-formations, made us possible to conclude, there was an insignificant predominance of erosion processes over the accumulative ones on the undeveloped part of the Inia River (the processes activity is noticeable only in certain areas (by the coasts and the island. Importance of the study: The study on the erosion-accumulation processes evaluation can be used in design decisions for the future high-rise construction of this territory, which will increase their economic efficiency.

  11. Estimation of erosion-accumulative processes at the Inia River's mouth near high-rise construction zones.

    Sineeva, Natalya

    2018-03-01

    Our study relevance is due to the increasing man-made impact on water bodies and associated land resources within the urban areas, as a consequence, by a change in the morphology and dynamics of Rivers' canals. This leads to the need to predict the development of erosion-accumulation processes, especially within the built-up urban areas. Purpose of the study is to develop programs on the assessment of erosion-accumulation processes at a water body, a mouth area of the Inia River, in the of perspective high-rise construction zone of a residential microdistrict, the place, where floodplain-channel complex is intensively expected to develop. Results of the study: Within the velocities of the water flow comparing, full-scale measured conditions, and calculated from the model, a slight discrepancy was recorded. This allows us to say that the numerical model reliably describes the physical processes developing in the River. The carried out calculations to assess the direction and intensity of the channel re-formations, made us possible to conclude, there was an insignificant predominance of erosion processes over the accumulative ones on the undeveloped part of the Inia River (the processes activity is noticeable only in certain areas (by the coasts and the island)). Importance of the study: The study on the erosion-accumulation processes evaluation can be used in design decisions for the future high-rise construction of this territory, which will increase their economic efficiency.

  12. Assembling GHERG: Could "academic crowd-sourcing" address gaps in global health estimates?

    Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Marušić, Ana; Sridhar, Devi; Nair, Harish; Adeloye, Davies; Theodoratou, Evropi; Chan, Kit Yee

    2015-06-01

    In recent months, the World Health Organization (WHO), independent academic researchers, the Lancet and PLoS Medicine journals worked together to improve reporting of population health estimates. The new guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting (likely to be named GATHER), which are eagerly awaited, represent a helpful move that should benefit the field of global health metrics. Building on this progress and drawing from a tradition of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG)'s successful work model, we would like to propose a new initiative - "Global Health Epidemiology Reference Group" (GHERG). We see GHERG as an informal and entirely voluntary international collaboration of academic groups who are willing to contribute to improving disease burden estimates and respect the principles of the new guidelines - a form of "academic crowd-sourcing". The main focus of GHERG will be to identify the "gap areas" where not much information is available and/or where there is a lot of uncertainty present about the accuracy of the existing estimates. This approach should serve to complement the existing WHO and IHME estimates and to represent added value to both efforts.

  13. Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis

    Sobol' , I.M. [Institute for Mathematical Modelling of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Tarantola, S. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it; Gatelli, D. [Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, TP361, Institute of the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via E. Fermi 1, 21020 Ispra (Italy)]. E-mail: debora.gatelli@jrc.it; Kucherenko, S.S. [Imperial College London (United Kingdom); Mauntz, W. [Department of Biochemical and Chemical Engineering, Dortmund University (Germany)

    2007-07-15

    One of the major settings of global sensitivity analysis is that of fixing non-influential factors, in order to reduce the dimensionality of a model. However, this is often done without knowing the magnitude of the approximation error being produced. This paper presents a new theorem for the estimation of the average approximation error generated when fixing a group of non-influential factors. A simple function where analytical solutions are available is used to illustrate the theorem. The numerical estimation of small sensitivity indices is discussed.

  14. Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

    2018-01-01

    Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

  15. Estimating Global Impervious Surface based on Social-economic Data and Satellite Observations

    Zeng, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Impervious surface areas around the globe are expanding and significantly altering the surface energy balance, hydrology cycle and ecosystem services. Many studies have underlined the importance of impervious surface, r from hydrological modeling to contaminant transport monitoring and urban development estimation. Therefore accurate estimation of the global impervious surface is important for both physical and social sciences. Given the limited coverage of high spatial resolution imagery and ground survey, using satellite remote sensing and geospatial data to estimate global impervious areas is a practical approach. Based on the previous work of area-weighted imperviousness for north branch of the Chicago River provided by HDR, this study developed a method to determine the percentage of impervious surface using latest global land cover categories from multi-source satellite observations, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Percent impervious surface at 30-meter resolution were mapped. We found that 1.33% of the CONUS (105,814 km2) and 0.475% of the land surface (640,370km2) are impervious surfaces. To test the utility and practicality of the proposed method, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2011 percent developed imperviousness for the conterminous United States was used to evaluate our results. The average difference between the derived imperviousness from our method and the NLCD data across CONUS is 1.14%, while difference between our results and the NLCD data are within ±1% over 81.63% of the CONUS. The distribution of global impervious surface map indicates that impervious surfaces are primarily concentrated in China, India, Japan, USA and Europe where are highly populated and/or developed. This study proposes a straightforward way of mapping global imperviousness, which can provide useful information for hydrologic modeling and other applications.

  16. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    ter Steege, H.; et al., [Unknown; Duivenvoorden, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened ...

  17. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  18. Global CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT retrievals of total column CO2

    S. Basu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available We present one of the first estimates of the global distribution of CO2 surface fluxes using total column CO2 measurements retrieved by the SRON-KIT RemoTeC algorithm from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT. We derive optimized fluxes from June 2009 to December 2010. We estimate fluxes from surface CO2 measurements to use as baselines for comparing GOSAT data-derived fluxes. Assimilating only GOSAT data, we can reproduce the observed CO2 time series at surface and TCCON sites in the tropics and the northern extra-tropics. In contrast, in the southern extra-tropics GOSAT XCO2 leads to enhanced seasonal cycle amplitudes compared to independent measurements, and we identify it as the result of a land–sea bias in our GOSAT XCO2 retrievals. A bias correction in the form of a global offset between GOSAT land and sea pixels in a joint inversion of satellite and surface measurements of CO2 yields plausible global flux estimates which are more tightly constrained than in an inversion using surface CO2 data alone. We show that assimilating the bias-corrected GOSAT data on top of surface CO2 data (a reduces the estimated global land sink of CO2, and (b shifts the terrestrial net uptake of carbon from the tropics to the extra-tropics. It is concluded that while GOSAT total column CO2 provide useful constraints for source–sink inversions, small spatiotemporal biases – beyond what can be detected using current validation techniques – have serious consequences for optimized fluxes, even aggregated over continental scales.

  19. Estimation of the Global Solar Energy Potential and Photovoltaic Cost with the use of Open Data

    Athina Korfiati

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing demand for renewable electricity sources, due to the global efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. Despite the promising effects, only a limited amount of electricity is currently produced globally from solar power. In order to help countries realize the importance of tapping into solar energy, it is crucial to reveal the potential amount of electricity that could be thus produced. For this reason, open data were used to produce an interactive web map of the global solar energy potential. For the calculation of the potential, the top-down approach, generally used in the literature, was modified by introducing a better way of calculating rooftop areas, and accounting for temperature, which highly reduces PV panels’ efficiency. Mean annual temperature data were introduced to improve its accuracy, and an approach to estimate rooftop and façade areas as a function of GDP was developed. The current global solar potential technically available was estimated at about 613 PWh/y. Furthermore, the cost of photovoltaic generation was computed and extremely low values, 0.03 - 0.2 $/kWh, were derived.

  20. A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

    Yi, S.; Heki, K.

    2017-12-01

    Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

  1. An estimation of global solar p-mode frequencies from IRIS network data: 1989-1996

    Serebryanskiy, A.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh.; Kholikov, Sh.; Fossat, E.; Gelly, B.; Schmider, F. X.; Grec, G.; Cacciani, A.; Palle, P. L.; Lazrek, M.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2001-06-01

    The IRIS network has accumulated full disk helioseismological data since July 1989, i.e. a complete 11-year solar cycle. Since the last paper publishing a frequency list [A&A 317 (1997) L71], not only has the network acquired new data, but has also developed new co-operative programs with compatible instruments [Abstr. SOHO 6/GONG 98 Workshop (1998) 51], so that merging IRIS files with these co-operative program data sets has made possible the improvement of the overall duty cycle. This paper presents new estimations of low degree p-mode frequencies obtained from this IRIS++ data bank covering the period 1989-1996, as well as the variation of their main parameters along the total range of magnetic activity, from before the last maximum to the very minimum. A preliminary estimation of the peak profile asymmetries is also included.

  2. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

    Bouillon, S.; Borges, A.V.; Castaneda-Moya, E.; Diele, K.; Dittmar, T.; Duke, N.C.; Kristensen, E.; Lee, S.-Y.; Marchand, C.; Middelburg, J.J.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Smith, T. J.; Twilley, R.R.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ???-218 ?? 72 Tg C a-1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ??? 112 ?? 85 Tg C a-1, equivalent in magnitude to ??? 30-40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  4. A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products

    Xu, Xiaojun; Du, Huaqiang; Zhou, Guomo; Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Fan, Weiliang; Zhu, Dien

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on the temporal and spatial distributions of solar radiation is very important in many scientific fields. In this study, instantaneous solar irradiances on a horizontal surface at 10:30 and 13:30 local time (LT) were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric data products with relatively high spatial resolution using a solar radiation model. These solar irradiances were combined to derive half-hourly averages of solar irradiance (HASI) and daily global solar radiation (GSR) on a horizontal surface using linear interpolation, piecewise linear regression, and quadratic polynomial regression. Compared with field observations, the HASI were estimated accurately when the total cloud fraction (TCF) was 0.6. Overall, the daily GSR estimated in this study was better than that estimated by the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis of NASA. The daily GSR estimated in this study was underestimated, whereas it was overestimated by MERRA. The combination of the daily GSR estimates of this study and MERRA offers a simple and feasible technique for reducing uncertainty in daily GSR estimates. - Highlights: • Daily GSR is integrated from two observations from the MODIS products. • Daily GSR from the MODIS products is underestimated. • Biases were attributed primarily to variations in the total cloud percent. • Combining daily GSR estimates from the MODIS and the MERRA increases accuracy.

  5. Global optimization for motion estimation with applications to ultrasound videos of carotid artery plaques

    Murillo, Sergio; Pattichis, Marios; Soliz, Peter; Barriga, Simon; Loizou, C. P.; Pattichis, C. S.

    2010-03-01

    Motion estimation from digital video is an ill-posed problem that requires a regularization approach. Regularization introduces a smoothness constraint that can reduce the resolution of the velocity estimates. The problem is further complicated for ultrasound videos (US), where speckle noise levels can be significant. Motion estimation using optical flow models requires the modification of several parameters to satisfy the optical flow constraint as well as the level of imposed smoothness. Furthermore, except in simulations or mostly unrealistic cases, there is no ground truth to use for validating the velocity estimates. This problem is present in all real video sequences that are used as input to motion estimation algorithms. It is also an open problem in biomedical applications like motion analysis of US of carotid artery (CA) plaques. In this paper, we study the problem of obtaining reliable ultrasound video motion estimates for atherosclerotic plaques for use in clinical diagnosis. A global optimization framework for motion parameter optimization is presented. This framework uses actual carotid artery motions to provide optimal parameter values for a variety of motions and is tested on ten different US videos using two different motion estimation techniques.

  6. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  7. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    Xu, Rongting; Tian, Hanqin; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Chen, Jian; Yang, Jia; Zhang, Bowen

    2017-07-01

    To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O) emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr-1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr-1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  8. Preindustrial nitrous oxide emissions from the land biosphere estimated by using a global biogeochemistry model

    R. Xu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To accurately assess how increased global nitrous oxide (N2O emission has affected the climate system requires a robust estimation of the preindustrial N2O emissions since only the difference between current and preindustrial emissions represents net drivers of anthropogenic climate change. However, large uncertainty exists in previous estimates of preindustrial N2O emissions from the land biosphere, while preindustrial N2O emissions on the finer scales, such as regional, biome, or sector scales, have not been well quantified yet. In this study, we applied a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM to estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of preindustrial N2O fluxes at the biome, continental, and global level as driven by multiple environmental factors. Uncertainties associated with key parameters were also evaluated. Our study indicates that the mean of the preindustrial N2O emission was approximately 6.20 Tg N yr−1, with an uncertainty range of 4.76 to 8.13 Tg N yr−1. The estimated N2O emission varied significantly at spatial and biome levels. South America, Africa, and Southern Asia accounted for 34.12, 23.85, and 18.93 %, respectively, together contributing 76.90 % of global total emission. The tropics were identified as the major source of N2O released into the atmosphere, accounting for 64.66 % of the total emission. Our multi-scale estimates provide a robust reference for assessing the climate forcing of anthropogenic N2O emission from the land biosphere

  9. Global Transcriptome Analysis Reveals Distinct Aluminum-Tolerance Pathways in the Al-Accumulating Species Hydrangea macrophylla and Marker Identification.

    Haixia Chen

    Full Text Available Hydrangea (Hydrangea macrophylla is a well known Al-accumulating plant, showing a high level of aluminum (Al tolerance and accumulation. Although the physiological mechanisms for detoxification of Al and the roles of Al in blue hydrangea sepals have been reported, the molecular mechanisms of Al tolerance and accumulation are poorly understood in hydrangea. In this study, we conducted a genome-wide transcriptome analysis of Al-response genes in the roots and leaves of hydrangea by RNA sequencing (RNA-seq. The assembly of hydrangea transcriptome provides a rich source for gene identification and mining molecular markers, including single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP and simple sequence repeat (SSR. A total of 401,215 transcripts with an average length of 810.77 bp were assembled, generating 256,127 unigenes. After annotation, 4,287 genes in the roots and 730 genes in the leaves were up-regulated by Al exposure, while 236 genes in the roots and 719 genes in the leaves were down-regulated, respectively. Many transporters, including MATE and ABC families, were involved in the process of Al-citrate complex transporting from the roots in hydrangea. A plasma membrane Al uptake transporter, Nramp aluminum transporter was up-regulated in roots and leaves under Al stress, indicating it may play an important role in Al tolerance by reducing the level of toxic Al. Although the exact roles of these candidate genes remain to be examined, these results provide a platform for further functional analysis of the process of detoxification of Al in hydrangea.

  10. Radiative transfer model for estimation of global solar radiation; Modelo de transferencia radiativa para la estimacion de la radiacion solar global

    Pettazzi, A.; Sabon, C. S.; Souto, G. J. A.

    2004-07-01

    In this work, the efficiency of a radiative transfer model in estimating the annual solar global radiation has been evaluated, over different locations at Galicia, Spain, in clear sky periods. Due to its quantitative significance, special attention has been focused on the analysis of the influence of visibility over the global radiation. By comparison of both estimated and measured global solar radiation along year 2002, a typical annual visibility series was obtained over every location. These visibility values has been analysed in order to identify patterns and typical values, in order to be used to estimate the global solar radiation along a different year. Validation was done over the year 2003, obtaining an annual estimation less than 10 % different to the measured value. (Author)

  11. Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

    S. Gruber

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub- surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (<1 km global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60° S is estimated to be 13–18 × 106 km2 or 9–14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16–21 × 106 km2. The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 106 km2. A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues

  12. Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke.

    Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K; Mensah, George A; Feigin, Valery L; Sposato, Luciano A; Naghavi, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    Stroke mortality estimates in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study are based on routine mortality statistics and redistribution of ill-defined codes that cannot be a cause of death, the so-called 'garbage codes' (GCs). This study describes the contribution of these codes to stroke mortality estimates. All available mortality data were compiled and non-specific cause codes were redistributed based on literature review and statistical methods. Ill-defined codes were redistributed to their specific cause of disease by age, sex, country and year. The reassignment was done based on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension' with marked regional differences. Future advancements in stroke certification, data collections and statistical analyses may improve the estimation of the global stroke burden. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  13. Annual global tree cover estimated by fusing optical and SAR satellite observations

    Feng, M.; Sexton, J. O.; Channan, S.; Townshend, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Tree cover defined structurally as the proportional, vertically projected area of vegetation (including leaves, stems, branches, etc.) of woody plants above a given height affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Tree cover provides a measurable attribute upon which forest cover may be defined. Changes in tree cover over time can be used to monitor and retrieve site-specific histories of forest disturbance, succession, and degradation. Measurements of Earth's tree cover have been produced at regional, national, and global extents. However, most representations are static, and those for which multiple time periods have been produced are neither intended nor adequate for consistent, long-term monitoring. Moreover, although a substantial proportion of change has been shown to occur at resolutions below 250 m, existing long-term, Landsat-resolution datasets are either produced as static layers or with annual, five- or ten-year temporal resolution. We have developed an algorithms to retrieve seamless and consistent, sub-hectare resolution estimates of tree-canopy from optical and radar satellite data sources (e.g., Landsat, Sentinel-2, and ALOS-PALSAR). Our approach to estimation enables assimilation of multiple data sources and produces estimates of both cover and its uncertainty at the scale of pixels. It has generated the world's first Landsat-based percent tree cover dataset in 2013. Our previous algorithms are being adapted to produce prototype percent-tree and water-cover layers globally in 2000, 2005, and 2010—as well as annually over North and South America from 2010 to 2015—from passive-optical (Landsat and Sentinel-2) and SAR measurements. Generating a global, annual dataset is beyond the scope of this support; however, North and South America represent all of the world's major biomes and so offer the complete global range of environmental sources of error and

  14. Sunshine-based estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surface at Lake Van region (Turkey)

    Duzen, Hacer; Aydin, Harun

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The global solar radiation at Lake Van region is estimated. ► This study is unique for the Lake Van region. ► Solar radiation around Lake Van has the highest value at the east-southeast region. ► The annual average solar energy potential is obtained as 750–2458 kWh/m 2 . ► Results can be used to estimate evaporation. - Abstract: In this study several sunshine-based regression models have been evaluated to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal surface of Lake Van region in the Eastern Anatolia region in Turkey by using data obtained from seven different meteorological stations. These models are derived from Angström–Prescott linear regression model and its derivatives such as quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and exponential. The performance of this regression models were evaluated by comparing the calculated clearness index and the measured clearness index. Several statistical tests were used to control the validation and goodness of the regression models in terms of the coefficient of determination, mean percent error, mean absolute percent error, mean biased error, mean absolute biased error, root mean square error and t-statistic. The results of all the regression models are within acceptable limits according to the statistical tests. However, the best performances are obtained by cubic regression model for Bitlis, Gevaş, Hakkari, Muş stations and by quadratic regression model for Malazgirt, Tatvan and Van stations to predict global solar radiation. The spatial distributions of the monthly average daily global solar radiation around the Lake Van region were obtained with interpolation of calculated solar radiation data that acquired from best fit models of the stations. The annual average solar energy potential for Lake Van region is obtained between 750 kWh/m 2 and 2485 kWh/m 2 with annual average of 1610 kWh/m 2 .

  15. Global and regional estimates of COPD prevalence: Systematic review and meta–analysis

    Davies Adeloye

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases. We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural. We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more. Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI 7.3%–14.0% in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%. This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010, and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010. The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%, followed by the African region (102.1%, while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%. In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers

  16. Estimating Global Ecosystem Isohydry/Anisohydry Using Active and Passive Microwave Satellite Data

    Li, Yan; Guan, Kaiyu; Gentine, Pierre; Konings, Alexandra G.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Kimball, John S.; Xu, Xiangtao; Anderegg, William R. L.; McDowell, Nate G.; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi; Long, David G.; Good, Stephen P.

    2017-12-01

    The concept of isohydry/anisohydry describes the degree to which plants regulate their water status, operating from isohydric with strict regulation to anisohydric with less regulation. Though some species level measures of isohydry/anisohydry exist at a few locations, ecosystem-scale information is still largely unavailable. In this study, we use diurnal observations from active (Ku-Band backscatter from QuikSCAT) and passive (X-band vegetation optical depth (VOD) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS Aqua) microwave satellite data to estimate global ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry. Here diurnal observations from both satellites approximate predawn and midday plant canopy water contents, which are used to estimate isohydry/anisohydry. The two independent estimates from radar backscatter and VOD show reasonable agreement at low and middle latitudes but diverge at high latitudes. Grasslands, croplands, wetlands, and open shrublands are more anisohydric, whereas evergreen broadleaf and deciduous broadleaf forests are more isohydric. The direct validation with upscaled in situ species isohydry/anisohydry estimates indicates that the VOD-based estimates have much better agreement than the backscatter-based estimates. The indirect validation with prior knowledge suggests that both estimates are generally consistent in that vegetation water status of anisohydric ecosystems more closely tracks environmental fluctuations of water availability and demand than their isohydric counterparts. However, uncertainties still exist in the isohydry/anisohydry estimate, primarily arising from the remote sensing data and, to a lesser extent, from the methodology. The comprehensive assessment in this study can help us better understand the robustness, limitation, and uncertainties of the satellite-derived isohydry/anisohydry estimates. The ecosystem isohydry/anisohydry has the potential to reveal new insights into spatiotemporal ecosystem response to droughts.

  17. Global estimation of long-term persistence in annual river runoff

    Markonis, Y.; Moustakis, Y.; Nasika, C.; Sychova, P.; Dimitriadis, P.; Hanel, M.; Máca, P.; Papalexiou, S. M.

    2018-03-01

    Long-term persistence (LTP) of annual river runoff is a topic of ongoing hydrological research, due to its implications to water resources management. Here, we estimate its strength, measured by the Hurst coefficient H, in 696 annual, globally distributed, streamflow records with at least 80 years of data. We use three estimation methods (maximum likelihood estimator, Whittle estimator and least squares variance) resulting in similar mean values of H close to 0.65. Subsequently, we explore potential factors influencing H by two linear (Spearman's rank correlation, multiple linear regression) and two non-linear (self-organizing maps, random forests) techniques. Catchment area is found to be crucial for medium to larger watersheds, while climatic controls, such as aridity index, have higher impact to smaller ones. Our findings indicate that long-term persistence is weaker than found in other studies, suggesting that enhanced LTP is encountered in large-catchment rivers, were the effect of spatial aggregation is more intense. However, we also show that the estimated values of H can be reproduced by a short-term persistence stochastic model such as an auto-regressive AR(1) process. A direct consequence is that some of the most common methods for the estimation of H coefficient, might not be suitable for discriminating short- and long-term persistence even in long observational records.

  18. Estimation of monthly-mean daily global solar radiation based on MODIS and TRMM products

    Qin, Jun; Chen, Zhuoqi; Yang, Kun; Liang, Shunlin; Tang, Wenjun

    2011-01-01

    Global solar radiation (GSR) is required in a large number of fields. Many parameterization schemes are developed to estimate it using routinely measured meteorological variables, since GSR is directly measured at a limited number of stations. Even so, meteorological stations are sparse, especially, in remote areas. Satellite signals (radiance at the top of atmosphere in most cases) can be used to estimate continuous GSR in space. However, many existing remote sensing products have a relatively coarse spatial resolution and these inversion algorithms are too complicated to be mastered by experts in other research fields. In this study, the artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to build the mathematical relationship between measured monthly-mean daily GSR and several high-level remote sensing products available for the public, including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly averaged land surface temperature (LST), the number of days in which the LST retrieval is performed in 1 month, MODIS enhanced vegetation index, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) monthly precipitation. After training, GSR estimates from this ANN are verified against ground measurements at 12 radiation stations. Then, comparisons are performed among three GSR estimates, including the one presented in this study, a surface data-based estimate, and a remote sensing product by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Validation results indicate that the ANN-based method presented in this study can estimate monthly-mean daily GSR at a spatial resolution of about 5 km with high accuracy.

  19. Global Warming Estimation from MSU: Correction for Drift and Calibration Errors

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer observations in Ch 2 (53.74 GHz), made in the nadir direction from sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA morning satellites (NOAA 6, 10 and 12 that have about 7am/7pm orbital geometry) and afternoon satellites (NOAA 7, 9, 11 and 14 that have about 2am/2pm orbital geometry) are analyzed in this study to derive global temperature trend from 1980 to 1998. In order to remove the discontinuities between the data of the successive satellites and to get a continuous time series, first we have used shortest possible time record of each satellite. In this way we get a preliminary estimate of the global temperature trend of 0.21 K/decade. However, this estimate is affected by systematic time-dependent errors. One such error is the instrument calibration error. This error can be inferred whenever there are overlapping measurements made by two satellites over an extended period of time. From the available successive satellite data we have taken the longest possible time record of each satellite to form the time series during the period 1980 to 1998 to this error. We find we can decrease the global temperature trend by about 0.07 K/decade. In addition there are systematic time dependent errors present in the data that are introduced by the drift in the satellite orbital geometry arises from the diurnal cycle in temperature which is the drift related change in the calibration of the MSU. In order to analyze the nature of these drift related errors the multi-satellite Ch 2 data set is partitioned into am and pm subsets to create two independent time series. The error can be assessed in the am and pm data of Ch 2 on land and can be eliminated. Observations made in the MSU Ch 1 (50.3 GHz) support this approach. The error is obvious only in the difference between the pm and am observations of Ch 2 over the ocean. We have followed two different paths to assess the impact of the errors on the global temperature trend. In one path the

  20. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  1. Use of excess 210Pb and 228Th to estimate rates of sediment accumulation and bioturbation in Port Phillip Bay, Australia

    Hancock, G.J.; Hunter, J.R.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of sediment accumulation, sediment mixing and depositional particle fluxes were estimated by use of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th. In central Port Phillip Bay, there was a rapidly mixed surface layer and two layers of different mixing rates at 2-20 cm and 2145 cm depths. When the sediment profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Th were combined and diffusive mixing was assumed, the sediment accumulation rate in the 2-20 cm layer was constrained to be -1 . The mixing coefficient in the 2-20 cm layer was 5.0 ± 0.1 cm 2 year -1 . Hence, mixing rather than sedimentation governs the distribution of 210 Pb and 228 Th in the surficial 20 cm. Below 20 cm, the different mixing regime may be due to the dominance of deposit-feeders at these depths. Evidence for bioturbation to a depth of 50 cm was obtained from profiles of excess 210 Pb and 228 Ra deficiency. The mean residence time of particles in the central bay water column was 10 ± 2 days (a normalized depositional particle flux of 0.16 ± 0.02 g cm -2 year -1 ). This flux is three times the upper estimate of the sediment accumulation rate, indicating that most of the suspended particulate matter in the water column is resuspended bottom sediment. Copyright (1997) CSIRO Publishing

  2. Modeling of the fatigue damage accumulation processes in the material of NPP design units under thermomechanical unstationary effects. Estimation of spent life and forecast of residual life

    Kiriushin, A.I.; Korotkikh, Yu.G.; Gorodov, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The estimation problems of spent life and forecast of residual life of NPP equipment design units, operated at unstationary thermal force loads are considered. These loads are, as a rule, unregular and cause rotation of main stress tensor platforms of the most loaded zones of structural elements and viscoelastic plastic deformation of material in the places of stresses concentrations. The existing engineering approaches to the damages accumulation processes calculation in the material of structural units, their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. For the processes of fatigue damages accumulation a model is proposed, which allows to take into account the unregular pattern of deformation multiaxiality of stressed state, rotation of main platforms, non-linear summation of damages at the loading mode change. The model in based on the equations of damaged medium mechanics, including the equations of viscoplastic deformation of the material and evolutionary equations of damages accumulation. The algorithms of spent life estimation and residual life forecast of the controlled equipment and systems zones are made on the bases of the given model by the known real history of loading, which is determined by real model of NPP operation. The results of numerical experiments on the basis of given model for various processes of thermal force loads and their comparison with experimental results are presented. (author)

  3. A global approach to estimate irrigated areas - a comparison between different data and statistics

    Meier, Jonas; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

    2018-02-01

    Agriculture is the largest global consumer of water. Irrigated areas constitute 40 % of the total area used for agricultural production (FAO, 2014a) Information on their spatial distribution is highly relevant for regional water management and food security. Spatial information on irrigation is highly important for policy and decision makers, who are facing the transition towards more efficient sustainable agriculture. However, the mapping of irrigated areas still represents a challenge for land use classifications, and existing global data sets differ strongly in their results. The following study tests an existing irrigation map based on statistics and extends the irrigated area using ancillary data. The approach processes and analyzes multi-temporal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) SPOT-VGT data and agricultural suitability data - both at a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec - incrementally in a multiple decision tree. It covers the period from 1999 to 2012. The results globally show a 18 % larger irrigated area than existing approaches based on statistical data. The largest differences compared to the official national statistics are found in Asia and particularly in China and India. The additional areas are mainly identified within already known irrigated regions where irrigation is more dense than previously estimated. The validation with global and regional products shows the large divergence of existing data sets with respect to size and distribution of irrigated areas caused by spatial resolution, the considered time period and the input data and assumption made.

  4. Estimation of global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    El-Sebaii, A.A.; Al-Ghamdi, A.A.; Al-Hazmi, F.S.; Faidah, Adel S.

    2009-01-01

    The measured data of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface, as well as the number of sunshine hours, mean daily ambient temperature, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures, relative humidity and amount of cloud cover, for Jeddah (latitude 21 deg. 42'37''N, longitude 39 deg. 11'12''E), Saudi Arabia for the period 1996-2006 are analyzed. The data are divided into two sets. The sub-data set 1 (1996-2004) are employed to develop empirical correlations between the monthly average of daily global solar radiation fraction (H/H 0 ) and various meteorological parameters. The nonlinear Angstroem type model developed by Sen and the trigonometric function model proposed by Bulut and Bueyuekalaca are also evaluated. New empirical constants for these two models have been obtained for Jeddah. The sub-data set 2 (2005, 2006) are then used to evaluate the derived correlations. Comparisons between measured and calculated values of H have been performed. It is indicated that, the Sen and Bulut and Bueyuekalaca models satisfactorily describe the horizontal global solar radiation for Jeddah. All the proposed correlations are found to be able to predict the annual average of daily global solar radiation with excellent accuracy. Therefore, the long term performance of solar energy devices can be estimated.

  5. Position Estimation and Local Mapping Using Omnidirectional Images and Global Appearance Descriptors

    Yerai Berenguer

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work presents some methods to create local maps and to estimate the position of a mobile robot, using the global appearance of omnidirectional images. We use a robot that carries an omnidirectional vision system on it. Every omnidirectional image acquired by the robot is described only with one global appearance descriptor, based on the Radon transform. In the work presented in this paper, two different possibilities have been considered. In the first one, we assume the existence of a map previously built composed of omnidirectional images that have been captured from previously-known positions. The purpose in this case consists of estimating the nearest position of the map to the current position of the robot, making use of the visual information acquired by the robot from its current (unknown position. In the second one, we assume that we have a model of the environment composed of omnidirectional images, but with no information about the location of where the images were acquired. The purpose in this case consists of building a local map and estimating the position of the robot within this map. Both methods are tested with different databases (including virtual and real images taking into consideration the changes of the position of different objects in the environment, different lighting conditions and occlusions. The results show the effectiveness and the robustness of both methods.

  6. Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

    Argus, Donald F.; Heflin, Michael B.

    1995-01-01

    We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

  7. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation using soft computing methodologies

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Danesh, Amir Seyed; Abdullah, Mohd Shahidan; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-07-01

    Precise knowledge of solar radiation is indeed essential in different technological and scientific applications of solar energy. Temperature-based estimation of global solar radiation would be appealing owing to broad availability of measured air temperatures. In this study, the potentials of soft computing techniques are evaluated to estimate daily horizontal global solar radiation (DHGSR) from measured maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures ( T max, T min, and T avg) in an Iranian city. For this purpose, a comparative evaluation between three methodologies of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), radial basis function support vector regression (SVR-rbf), and polynomial basis function support vector regression (SVR-poly) is performed. Five combinations of T max, T min, and T avg are served as inputs to develop ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models. The attained results show that all ANFIS, SVR-rbf, and SVR-poly models provide favorable accuracy. Based upon all techniques, the higher accuracies are achieved by models (5) using T max- T min and T max as inputs. According to the statistical results, SVR-rbf outperforms SVR-poly and ANFIS. For SVR-rbf (5), the mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient are 1.1931 MJ/m2, 2.0716 MJ/m2, and 0.9380, respectively. The survey results approve that SVR-rbf can be used efficiently to estimate DHGSR from air temperatures.

  8. Global and Multi-National Prevalence of Fungal Diseases—Estimate Precision

    Felix Bongomin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Fungal diseases kill more than 1.5 million and affect over a billion people. However, they are still a neglected topic by public health authorities even though most deaths from fungal diseases are avoidable. Serious fungal infections occur as a consequence of other health problems including asthma, AIDS, cancer, organ transplantation and corticosteroid therapies. Early accurate diagnosis allows prompt antifungal therapy; however this is often delayed or unavailable leading to death, serious chronic illness or blindness. Recent global estimates have found 3,000,000 cases of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis, ~223,100 cases of cryptococcal meningitis complicating HIV/AIDS, ~700,000 cases of invasive candidiasis, ~500,000 cases of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia, ~250,000 cases of invasive aspergillosis, ~100,000 cases of disseminated histoplasmosis, over 10,000,000 cases of fungal asthma and ~1,000,000 cases of fungal keratitis occur annually. Since 2013, the Leading International Fungal Education (LIFE portal has facilitated the estimation of the burden of serious fungal infections country by country for over 5.7 billion people (>80% of the world’s population. These studies have shown differences in the global burden between countries, within regions of the same country and between at risk populations. Here we interrogate the accuracy of these fungal infection burden estimates in the 43 published papers within the LIFE initiative.

  9. Global Appearance Applied to Visual Map Building and Path Estimation Using Multiscale Analysis

    Francisco Amorós

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work we present a topological map building and localization system for mobile robots based on global appearance of visual information. We include a comparison and analysis of global-appearance techniques applied to wide-angle scenes in retrieval tasks. Next, we define multiscale analysis, which permits improving the association between images and extracting topological distances. Then, a topological map-building algorithm is proposed. At first, the algorithm has information only of some isolated positions of the navigation area in the form of nodes. Each node is composed of a collection of images that covers the complete field of view from a certain position. The algorithm solves the node retrieval and estimates their spatial arrangement. With these aims, it uses the visual information captured along some routes that cover the navigation area. As a result, the algorithm builds a graph that reflects the distribution and adjacency relations between nodes (map. After the map building, we also propose a route path estimation system. This algorithm takes advantage of the multiscale analysis. The accuracy in the pose estimation is not reduced to the nodes locations but also to intermediate positions between them. The algorithms have been tested using two different databases captured in real indoor environments under dynamic conditions.

  10. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  11. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  12. Selective Segmentation for Global Optimization of Depth Estimation in Complex Scenes

    Sheng Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a segmentation-based global optimization method for depth estimation. Firstly, for obtaining accurate matching cost, the original local stereo matching approach based on self-adapting matching window is integrated with two matching cost optimization strategies aiming at handling both borders and occlusion regions. Secondly, we employ a comprehensive smooth term to satisfy diverse smoothness request in real scene. Thirdly, a selective segmentation term is used for enforcing the plane trend constraints selectively on the corresponding segments to further improve the accuracy of depth results from object level. Experiments on the Middlebury image pairs show that the proposed global optimization approach is considerably competitive with other state-of-the-art matching approaches.

  13. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    Havelaar, Arie H.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Torgerson, Paul R.

    2015-01-01

    parasitic helminths, were highly localised. Thus, the burden of FBD is borne particularly by children under five years old-although they represent only 9% of the global population-and people living in low-income regions of the world. These estimates are conservative, i.e., underestimates rather than......Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established...... different burdens of FBD, with the greatest falling on the subregions in Africa, followed by the subregions in South-East Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean D subregion. Some hazards, such as non-typhoidal S. enterica, were important causes of FBD in all regions of the world, whereas others, such as certain...

  14. Global cross-station assessment of neuro-fuzzy models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration

    Shiri, Jalal; Nazemi, Amir Hossein; Sadraddini, Ali Ashraf; Landeras, Gorka; Kisi, Ozgur; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Marti, Pau

    2013-02-01

    SummaryAccurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration is important for irrigation scheduling, water resources management and planning and other agricultural water management issues. In the present paper, the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy models were evaluated for estimating reference evapotranspiration using two separate sets of weather data from humid and non-humid regions of Spain and Iran. In this way, the data from some weather stations in the Basque Country and Valencia region (Spain) were used for training the neuro-fuzzy models [in humid and non-humid regions, respectively] and subsequently, the data from these regions were pooled to evaluate the generalization capability of a general neuro-fuzzy model in humid and non-humid regions. The developed models were tested in stations of Iran, located in humid and non-humid regions. The obtained results showed the capabilities of generalized neuro-fuzzy model in estimating reference evapotranspiration in different climatic zones. Global GNF models calibrated using both non-humid and humid data were found to successfully estimate ET0 in both non-humid and humid regions of Iran (the lowest MAE values are about 0.23 mm for non-humid Iranian regions and 0.12 mm for humid regions). non-humid GNF models calibrated using non-humid data performed much better than the humid GNF models calibrated using humid data in non-humid region while the humid GNF model gave better estimates in humid region.

  15. Global estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes: analysis of multinational antenatal surveillance data.

    Lori Newman

    Full Text Available The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥ 90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥ 90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC coverage for women with syphilis.Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963 adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716 stillbirths (>28 wk or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk, 91,764 (76,141; 107,397 neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605 preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245 infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was "probable active," and for testing and treatment coverage.Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that could be prevented by early testing and

  16. Global Estimates of Syphilis in Pregnancy and Associated Adverse Outcomes: Analysis of Multinational Antenatal Surveillance Data

    Newman, Lori; Kamb, Mary; Hawkes, Sarah; Gomez, Gabriela; Say, Lale; Seuc, Armando; Broutet, Nathalie

    2013-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC) coverage for women with syphilis. Methods and Findings Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million) pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963) adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716) stillbirths (>28 wk) or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk), 91,764 (76,141; 107,397) neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605) preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245) infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was “probable active,” and for testing and treatment coverage. Conclusions Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that

  17. The assessment of Global Precipitation Measurement estimates over the Indian subcontinent

    Murali Krishna, U. V.; Das, Subrata Kumar; Deshpande, Sachin M.; Doiphode, S. L.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-08-01

    Accurate and real-time precipitation estimation is a challenging task for current and future spaceborne measurements, which is essential to understand the global hydrological cycle. Recently, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites were launched as a next-generation rainfall mission for observing the global precipitation characteristics. The purpose of the GPM is to enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global precipitation. The main objective of the present study is to assess the rainfall products from the GPM, especially the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the GPM (IMERG) data by comparing with the ground-based observations. The multitemporal scale evaluations of rainfall involving subdaily, diurnal, monthly, and seasonal scales were performed over the Indian subcontinent. The comparison shows that the IMERG performed better than the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-3B42, although both rainfall products underestimated the observed rainfall compared to the ground-based measurements. The analyses also reveal that the TRMM-3B42 and IMERG data sets are able to represent the large-scale monsoon rainfall spatial features but are having region-specific biases. The IMERG shows significant improvement in low rainfall estimates compared to the TRMM-3B42 for selected regions. In the spatial distribution, the IMERG shows higher rain rates compared to the TRMM-3B42, due to its enhanced spatial and temporal resolutions. Apart from this, the characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) obtained from the GPM mission dual-frequency precipitation radar is assessed over the complex mountain terrain site in the Western Ghats, India, using the DSD measured by a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer.

  18. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future

    Kalyuzhnova, Yelena, E-mail: y.kaluyzhnova@reading.ac.uk [Centre for Euro Asian Studies, University of Reading, P.O. Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have different titles, goals and rules, but they share the underlying objective of helping governments deal with the problems created by large and variable revenues (mainly from energy or other commodity related sectors). In Kazakhstan, such a fund (the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK)) was established in 2000. This fund operates as both a stabilisation and a savings fund. The first test for the NFRK was 2007-2009 financial crisis, where the NFRK 'saved' the economy and guarantied its speedy recovery. The paper analyses the NFRK's operation up to 2007 and during the crisis years 2007-9, before drawing conclusions and implications for the future. Between 2001 and 2007 the NFRK conservatively accumulated assets, which proved to be useful in limiting the impact of the post-2007 crisis. However, the pre-2007 experience indicated structural weaknesses associated with discretionary executive authority and non-transparency. The paper concludes by observing that this history has created significant challenges for the future. - Highlights: > Expenditures of resource revenues should be consistent with the government's long-term plan to save for the future. > A system of indicators for the non-resource deficit is required. > Domestic investment provides more stability and economic resilience. > A transparent and accountable governance structure of the NFRK is required.

  19. The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future

    Kalyuzhnova, Yelena

    2011-01-01

    Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have different titles, goals and rules, but they share the underlying objective of helping governments deal with the problems created by large and variable revenues (mainly from energy or other commodity related sectors). In Kazakhstan, such a fund (the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK)) was established in 2000. This fund operates as both a stabilisation and a savings fund. The first test for the NFRK was 2007-2009 financial crisis, where the NFRK 'saved' the economy and guarantied its speedy recovery. The paper analyses the NFRK's operation up to 2007 and during the crisis years 2007-9, before drawing conclusions and implications for the future. Between 2001 and 2007 the NFRK conservatively accumulated assets, which proved to be useful in limiting the impact of the post-2007 crisis. However, the pre-2007 experience indicated structural weaknesses associated with discretionary executive authority and non-transparency. The paper concludes by observing that this history has created significant challenges for the future. - Highlights: → Expenditures of resource revenues should be consistent with the government's long-term plan to save for the future. → A system of indicators for the non-resource deficit is required. → Domestic investment provides more stability and economic resilience. → A transparent and accountable governance structure of the NFRK is required.

  20. Global Impact Estimation of ISO 50001 Energy Management System for Industrial and Service Sectors

    Aghajanzadeh, Arian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Therkelsen, Peter L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Rao, Prakash [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKane, Aimee T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    A methodology has been developed to determine the impacts of ISO 50001 Energy Management System (EnMS) at a region or country level. The impacts of ISO 50001 EnMS include energy, CO2 emissions, and cost savings. This internationally recognized and transparent methodology has been embodied in a user friendly Microsoft Excel® based tool called ISO 50001 Impact Estimator Tool (IET 50001). However, the tool inputs are critical in order to get accurate and defensible results. This report is intended to document the data sources used and assumptions made to calculate the global impact of ISO 50001 EnMS.

  1. Potential recovery for Reissner--Mindlin and Kirchhoff--Love plate models using global Carleman estimates

    Osses, Axel; Palacios, Benjamín

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider two linear plate models, namely the Reissner–Mindlin system (R–M) and the Kirchhoff–Love equation (K–L), which come from linear elasticity. We prove global Carleman inequalities for both models with boundary observations and under a suitable hypothesis on the parameters. We use these estimates to study the inverse problem of recovering a spatially dependent potential from knowledge of Neumann boundary data. We obtain L 2 -Lipschitz stability for K–L and H 1 -Lipschitz stability for R–M under the assumption that the potentials are equal at the boundary. (paper)

  2. Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

    Robertson, F. R.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Roberts, J. B.; Reichle, R. H.; Adler, R.; Ricciardulli, L.; Berg, W.; Huffman, G. J.

    2013-01-01

    Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal

  3. Global NOx emission estimates derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2 columns

    K. Sudo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A data assimilation system has been developed to estimate global nitrogen oxides (NOx emissions using OMI tropospheric NO2 columns (DOMINO product and a global chemical transport model (CTM, the Chemical Atmospheric GCM for Study of Atmospheric Environment and Radiative Forcing (CHASER. The data assimilation system, based on an ensemble Kalman filter approach, was applied to optimize daily NOx emissions with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° during the years 2005 and 2006. The background error covariance estimated from the ensemble CTM forecasts explicitly represents non-direct relationships between the emissions and tropospheric columns caused by atmospheric transport and chemical processes. In comparison to the a priori emissions based on bottom-up inventories, the optimized emissions were higher over eastern China, the eastern United States, southern Africa, and central-western Europe, suggesting that the anthropogenic emissions are mostly underestimated in the inventories. In addition, the seasonality of the estimated emissions differed from that of the a priori emission over several biomass burning regions, with a large increase over Southeast Asia in April and over South America in October. The data assimilation results were validated against independent data: SCIAMACHY tropospheric NO2 columns and vertical NO2 profiles obtained from aircraft and lidar measurements. The emission correction greatly improved the agreement between the simulated and observed NO2 fields; this implies that the data assimilation system efficiently derives NOx emissions from concentration observations. We also demonstrated that biases in the satellite retrieval and model settings used in the data assimilation largely affect the magnitude of estimated emissions. These dependences should be carefully considered for better understanding NOx sources from top-down approaches.

  4. Estimation of global inventories of radioactive waste and other radioactive materials

    2008-06-01

    A variety of nuclear activities have been carried out in the second part of the twentieth century for different purposes. Initially the emphasis was on military applications, but with the passage of time the main focus of nuclear activities has shifted to peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to the use of radioactive material in industry, medicine and research. Regardless of the objectives, the nuclear activities generate radioactive waste. It was considered worthwhile to produce a set of worldwide data that could be assessed to evaluate the legacy of the nuclear activities performed up to the transition between the twentieth and the twenty first century. The assessment tries to cover the inventory of all the human produced radioactive material that can be considered to result from both military and civilian applications. This has caused remarkable difficulties since much of the data, particularly relating to military programmes, are not readily available. Consequently the data on the inventory of radioactive material should be considered as order-of-magnitude approximations. This report as a whole should be considered as a first iteration in a continuing process of updating and upgrading. The accumulations of radioactive materials can be considered a burden for human society, both at present and in the future, since they require continuing monitoring and control. Knowing the amounts and types of such radioactive inventories can help in the assessment of the relative burdens. Knowledge of the national or regional radioactive waste inventory is necessary for planning management operations, including the sizing and design of conditioning, storage and disposal facilities. A global inventory, either of radioactive waste or of other environmental accumulations of radioactive material, could be used to provide a perspective on the requirements and burdens associated with their management, by means of comparisons with the burdens caused by other types of waste or other

  5. Support vector regression methodology for estimating global solar radiation in Algeria

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Gairaa, Kacem; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) has been a major goal for solar energy applications. In this paper we show the possibility of developing a simple model based on the Support Vector Regression (SVM-R), which could be used to estimate DGSR on the horizontal surface in Algeria based only on sunshine ratio as input. The SVM model has been developed and tested using a data set recorded over three years (2005-2007). The data was collected at the Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) in Ghardaïa city. The data collected between 2005-2006 are used to train the model while the 2007 data are used to test the performance of the selected model. The measured and the estimated values of DGSR were compared during the testing phase statistically using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Square Error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient (r2), which amount to 1.59(MJ/m2), 8.46 and 97,4%, respectively. The obtained results show that the SVM-R is highly qualified for DGSR estimation using only sunshine ratio.

  6. Global robust stability of delayed neural networks: Estimating upper limit of norm of delayed connection weight matrix

    Singh, Vimal

    2007-01-01

    The question of estimating the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 , which is a key step in some recently reported global robust stability criteria for delayed neural networks, is revisited ( B denotes the delayed connection weight matrix). Recently, Cao, Huang, and Qu have given an estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 . In the present paper, an alternative estimate of the upper limit of -parallel B -parallel 2 is highlighted. It is shown that the alternative estimate may yield some new global robust stability results

  7. Estimating the impact of +2 degrees of global warming on European Tourism

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Grillakis, Manolis; Konstantopoulos, Konstantinos; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The impact of a potential global temperature rise by 2oC on tourism is examined, within the framework of IMPACT2C FP7 project. The period of the specific increase was defined according to the global mean temperature projections from two GCM, BCM and HadCM3Q3. Simulations from two RCMs, driven by the aforementioned GCMs, in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) which is a measure of climate favorability for outdoor leisure and recreational activities. Climate favorability related to summer tourism is expected to increase in most European countries moving from south to north. In the opposite, countries that traditionally attract "sun and sand" tourists like Italy, Spain, Greece, France, Portugal, Cyprus are projected to become uncomfortably hot for the months of the peak summer season. Both of the examined models provide consistent information about the direction of change, however SMHI shows a greater change in future TCI. The TCI between 1960 and 2000 was associated to bednights data, to reveal the correlation of the empirical index with a real tourism indicator. The resulted correlation function was then applied to the 2oC period, estimating the effect of the specific temperature rise to future tourism activity expressed in terms of projected bednights.

  8. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

    Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

  9. Deriving global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using FLUXNET and machine learning

    Chaney, Nathaniel W.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Ek, Michael B.; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-11-01

    With their origins in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling, land surface models aim to accurately partition the surface energy balance. An overlooked challenge in these schemes is the role of model parameter uncertainty, particularly at unmonitored sites. This study provides global parameter estimates for the Noah land surface model using 85 eddy covariance sites in the global FLUXNET network. The at-site parameters are first calibrated using a Latin Hypercube-based ensemble of the most sensitive parameters, determined by the Sobol method, to be the minimum stomatal resistance (rs,min), the Zilitinkevich empirical constant (Czil), and the bare soil evaporation exponent (fxexp). Calibration leads to an increase in the mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency performance metric from 0.54 to 0.71. These calibrated parameter sets are then related to local environmental characteristics using the Extra-Trees machine learning algorithm. The fitted Extra-Trees model is used to map the optimal parameter sets over the globe at a 5 km spatial resolution. The leave-one-out cross validation of the mapped parameters using the Noah land surface model suggests that there is the potential to skillfully relate calibrated model parameter sets to local environmental characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential to use FLUXNET to tune the parameterizations of surface fluxes in land surface models and to provide improved parameter estimates over the globe.

  10. Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

    Massof, Robert W; Schmidt, Karen M; Laby, Daniel M; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

    2013-01-01

    Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model

  11. MODIS-based global terrestrial estimates of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration

    Ryu, Y.; Baldocchi, D. D.; Kobayashi, H.; Li, J.; van Ingen, C.; Agarwal, D.; Jackson, K.; Humphrey, M.

    2010-12-01

    We propose a novel approach to quantify gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at global scale (5 km resolution with 8-day interval). The MODIS-based, process-oriented approach couples photosynthesis, evaporation, two-leaf energy balance and nitrogen, which are different from the previous satellite-based approaches. We couple information from MODIS with flux towers to assess the drivers and parameters of GPP and ET. Incoming shortwave radiation components (direct and diffuse PAR, NIR) under all sky condition are modeled using a Monte-Carlo based atmospheric radiative transfer model. The MODIS Level 2 Atmospheric products are gridded and overlaid with MODIS Land products to produce spatially compatible forcing variables. GPP is modeled using a two-leaf model (sunlit and shaded leaf) and the maximum carboxylation rate is estimated using albedo-Nitrogen-leaf trait relations. The GPP is used to calculate canopy conductance via Ball-Berry model. Then, we apply Penman-Monteith equation to calculate evapotranspiration. The process-oriented approach allows us to investigate the main drivers of GPP and ET at global scale. Finally we explore the spatial and temporal variability of GPP and ET at global scale.

  12. Estimating the marginal cost of reducing global fossil fuel CO2 emissions

    Edmonds, J.; Barns, D.W.; McDonald, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper estimates the marginal, total, and average cost and effectiveness of carbon taxes applied either by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) members alone, or as part of a global cooperative strategy, to reduce potential future emissions and their direct implications for employment in the US coal industry. Two sets of cases are examined, one set in which OECD members acts alone, and another set in which the world acts in concert. In each case set taxes are examined which achieve four alternative levels of emissions reduction: halve the rate of emissions growth, no emissions growth, 20% reduction from 1988 levels, and 50% reduction from 1988 levels. For the global cooperation case, carbon tax rates of $32, $113, $161, and $517 per metric ton of carbon (mtC) were needed in the year 2025 to achieve the objectives. Total costs were respectively $40, $178, $253, and $848 billions of 1990 US dollars per year in the year 2025. Average costs were $32, $55, $59, and $135 per mtC. Costs were significantly higher in the cases in which the OECD members states acted alone. OECD member states, acting alone, could not reduce global emissions by 50% or 20% relative to 1988, given reference case assumptions regarding developing and recently planned nations economic growth

  13. Estimation of hourly global solar irradiation on tilted planes from horizontal one using artificial neural networks

    Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Vasileva, Siyana; Nivet, Marie Laure; Canaletti, Jean-Louis; Cristofari, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Calculating global solar irradiation from global horizontal irradiation only is a difficult task, especially when the time step is small and the data are not averaged. We used an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to realize this conversion. The ANN is optimized and tested on the basis of five years of solar data; the accuracy of the optimal configuration is around 6% for the RRMSE (relative root mean square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (relative mean absolute value) i.e. a better performance than the empirical correlations available in the literature. -- Highlights: ► ANN (Artificial Neural Network) methodology applied to hourly global solar irradiation in order to estimate tilted irradiations. ► Model validation with more than 23,000 data. ► Comparison with “conventional” models. ► The precision in the results is better than with empirical correlations. ► 6% for the RMSE (root means square error) and around 3.5% for the RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Value).

  14. Global Ocean Circulation in Thermohaline Coordinates and Small-scale and Mesoscale mixing: An Inverse Estimate.

    Groeskamp, S.; Zika, J. D.; McDougall, T. J.; Sloyan, B.

    2016-02-01

    I will present results of a new inverse technique that infers small-scale turbulent diffusivities and mesoscale eddy diffusivities from an ocean climatology of Salinity (S) and Temperature (T) in combination with surface freshwater and heat fluxes.First, the ocean circulation is represented in (S,T) coordinates, by the diathermohaline streamfunction. Framing the ocean circulation in (S,T) coordinates, isolates the component of the circulation that is directly related to water-mass transformation.Because water-mass transformation is directly related to fluxes of salt and heat, this framework allows for the formulation of an inverse method in which the diathermohaline streamfunction is balanced with known air-sea forcing and unknown mixing. When applying this inverse method to observations, we obtain observationally based estimates for both the streamfunction and the mixing. The results reveal new information about the component of the global ocean circulation due to water-mass transformation and its relation to surface freshwater and heat fluxes and small-scale and mesoscale mixing. The results provide global constraints on spatially varying patterns of diffusivities, in order to obtain a realistic overturning circulation. We find that mesoscale isopycnal mixing is much smaller than expected. These results are important for our understanding of the relation between global ocean circulation and mixing and may lead to improved parameterisations in numerical ocean models.

  15. Regional and global modeling estimates of policy relevant background ozone over the United States

    Emery, Christopher; Jung, Jaegun; Downey, Nicole; Johnson, Jeremiah; Jimenez, Michele; Yarwood, Greg; Morris, Ralph

    2012-02-01

    Policy Relevant Background (PRB) ozone, as defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), refers to ozone concentrations that would occur in the absence of all North American anthropogenic emissions. PRB enters into the calculation of health risk benefits, and as the US ozone standard approaches background levels, PRB is increasingly important in determining the feasibility and cost of compliance. As PRB is a hypothetical construct, modeling is a necessary tool. Since 2006 EPA has relied on global modeling to establish PRB for their regulatory analyses. Recent assessments with higher resolution global models exhibit improved agreement with remote observations and modest upward shifts in PRB estimates. This paper shifts the paradigm to a regional model (CAMx) run at 12 km resolution, for which North American boundary conditions were provided by a low-resolution version of the GEOS-Chem global model. We conducted a comprehensive model inter-comparison, from which we elucidate differences in predictive performance against ozone observations and differences in temporal and spatial background variability over the US. In general, CAMx performed better in replicating observations at remote monitoring sites, and performance remained better at higher concentrations. While spring and summer mean PRB predicted by GEOS-Chem ranged 20-45 ppb, CAMx predicted PRB ranged 25-50 ppb and reached well over 60 ppb in the west due to event-oriented phenomena such as stratospheric intrusion and wildfires. CAMx showed a higher correlation between modeled PRB and total observed ozone, which is significant for health risk assessments. A case study during April 2006 suggests that stratospheric exchange of ozone is underestimated in both models on an event basis. We conclude that wildfires, lightning NO x and stratospheric intrusions contribute a significant level of uncertainty in estimating PRB, and that PRB will require careful consideration in the ozone standard setting process.

  16. Development of Gentle Slope Light Guide Structure in a 3.4 μm Pixel Pitch Global Shutter CMOS Image Sensor with Multiple Accumulation Shutter Technology.

    Sekine, Hiroshi; Kobayashi, Masahiro; Onuki, Yusuke; Kawabata, Kazunari; Tsuboi, Toshiki; Matsuno, Yasushi; Takahashi, Hidekazu; Inoue, Shunsuke; Ichikawa, Takeshi

    2017-12-09

    CMOS image sensors (CISs) with global shutter (GS) function are strongly required in order to avoid image degradation. However, CISs with GS function have generally been inferior to the rolling shutter (RS) CIS in performance, because they have more components. This problem is remarkable in small pixel pitch. The newly developed 3.4 µm pitch GS CIS solves this problem by using multiple accumulation shutter technology and the gentle slope light guide structure. As a result, the developed GS pixel achieves 1.8 e - temporal noise and 16,200 e - full well capacity with charge domain memory in 120 fps operation. The sensitivity and parasitic light sensitivity are 28,000 e - /lx·s and -89 dB, respectively. Moreover, the incident light angle dependence of sensitivity and parasitic light sensitivity are improved by the gentle slope light guide structure.

  17. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  18. Coupling HYDRUS-1D with ArcGIS to estimate pesticide accumulation and leaching risk on a regional basis.

    Anlauf, Ruediger; Schaefer, Jenny; Kajitvichyanukul, Puangrat

    2018-07-01

    HYDRUS-1D is a well-established reliable instrument to simulate water and pesticide transport in soils. It is, however, a point-specific model which is usually used for site-specific simulations. Aim of the investigation was the development of pesticide accumulation and leaching risk maps for regions combining HYDRUS-1D as a model for pesticide fate with regional data in a geographical information system (GIS). It was realized in form of a python tool in ArcGIS. Necessary high resolution local soil information, however, is very often not available. Therefore, worldwide interpolated 250-m-grid soil data (SoilGrids.org) were successfully incorporated to the system. The functionality of the system is shown by examples from Thailand, where example regions that differ in soil properties and climatic conditions were exposed in the model system to pesticides with different properties. A practical application of the system will be the identification of areas where measures to optimize pesticide use should be implemented with priority. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Removal of Atmospheric Ethanol by Wet Deposition: A Global Flux Estimate

    Felix, J. D. D.; Willey, J. D.; Avery, B.; Thomas, R.; Mullaugh, K.; Kieber, R. J.; Mead, R. N.; Helms, J. R.; Campos, L.; Shimizu, M. S.; Guibbina, F.

    2017-12-01

    Global ethanol fuel consumption has increased exponentially over the last two decades and the US plans to double annual renewable fuel production in the next five years as required by the renewable fuel standard. Regardless of the technology or feedstock used to produce the renewable fuel, the primary end product will be ethanol. Increasing ethanol fuel consumption will have an impact on the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and increase atmospheric concentrations of the secondary pollutant peroxyacetyl nitrate as well a variety of VOCs with relatively high ozone reactivities (e.g. ethanol, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde). Despite these documented effects of ethanol emissions on atmospheric chemistry, current global atmospheric ethanol budget models have large uncertainties in the magnitude of ethanol sources and sinks. The presented work investigates the global wet deposition sink by providing the first estimate of the global wet deposition flux of ethanol (2.4 ± 1.6 Tg/yr) based on empirical wet deposition data (219 samples collected at 12 locations). This suggests the wet deposition sink removes between 6 and 17% of atmospheric ethanol annually. Concentrations of ethanol in marine wet deposition (25 ± 6 nM) were an order of magnitude less than in the majority of terrestrial deposition (345 ± 280 nM). Terrestrial deposition collected in locations impacted by high local sources of biofuel usage and locations downwind from ethanol distilleries were an order of magnitude higher in ethanol concentration (3090 ± 448 nM) compared to deposition collected in terrestrial locations not impacted by these sources. These results indicate that wet deposition of ethanol is heavily influenced by local sources and ethanol emission impacts on air quality may be more significant in highly populated areas. As established and developing countries continue to rapidly increase ethanol fuel consumption and subsequent emissions, understanding the magnitude of all ethanol sources and

  20. Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

    Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

    2012-04-01

    Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

  1. Operational Estimation of Accumulated Precipitation using Satellite Observation, by Eumetsat Satellite Application facility in Support to Hydrology (H-SAF Consortium).

    di Diodato, A.; de Leonibus, L.; Zauli, F.; Biron, D.; Melfi, D.

    2009-04-01

    Operational Estimation of Accumulated Precipitation using Satellite Observation, by Eumetsat Satellite Application facility in Support to Hydrology (H-SAF Consortium). Cap. Attilio DI DIODATO(*), T.Col. Luigi DE LEONIBUS(*), T.Col Francesco ZAULI(*), Cap. Daniele BIRON(*), Ten. Davide Melfi(*) Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) are specialised development and processing centres of the EUMETSAT Distributed Ground Segment. SAFs process level 1b data from meteorological satellites (geostationary and polar ones) in conjunction with all other relevant sources of data and appropriate models to generate services and level 2 products. Each SAF is a consortium of EUMETSAT European partners lead by a host institute responsible for the management of the complete SAF project. The Meteorological Service of Italian Air Force is the host Institute for the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF). HSAF has the commitment to develop and to provide, operationally after 2010, products regarding precipitation, soil moisture and snow. HSAF is going to provide information on error structure of its products and validation of the products via their impacts into Hydrological models. To that purpose it has been structured a specific subgroups. Accumulated precipitation is computed by temporal integration of the instantaneous rain rate achieved by the blended LEO/MW and GEO/IR precipitation rate products generated by Rapid Update method available every 15 minutes. The algorithm provides four outputs, consisting in accumulated precipitation in 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours, delivered every 3 hours at the synoptic hours. These outputs are our precipitation background fields. Satellite estimates can cover most of the globe, however, they suffer from errors due to lack of a direct relationship between observation parameters and precipitation, the poor sampling and algorithm imperfections. For this reason the 3 hours accumulated precipitation is

  2. Empirical models for the estimation of global solar radiation with sunshine hours on horizontal surface in various cities of Pakistan

    Gadiwala, M.S.; Usman, A.; Akhtar, M.; Jamil, K.

    2013-01-01

    In developing countries like Pakistan the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Only five long-period locations data of solar radiation data is available in Pakistan (Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, Multan and Peshawar). These locations almost encompass the different geographical features of Pakistan. For this reason in this study the Mean monthly global solar radiation has been estimated using empirical models of Angstrom, FAO, Glover Mc-Culloch, Sangeeta & Tiwari for the diversity of approach and use of climatic and geographical parameters. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained by these models have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values. The outcome of these empirical models will assist the researchers working on solar energy estimation of the location having similar conditions

  3. Generation of common coefficients to estimate global solar radiation over different locations of India

    Samanta, Suman; Patra, Pulak Kumar; Banerjee, Saon; Narsimhaiah, Lakshmi; Sarath Chandran, M. A.; Vijaya Kumar, P.; Bandyopadhyay, Sanjib

    2018-06-01

    In developing countries like India, global solar radiation (GSR) is measured at very few locations due to non-availability of radiation measuring instruments. To overcome the inadequacy of GSR measurements, scientists developed many empirical models to estimate location-wise GSR. In the present study, three simple forms of Angstrom equation [Angstrom-Prescott (A-P), Ogelman, and Bahel] were used to estimate GSR at six geographically and climatologically different locations across India with an objective to find out a set of common constants usable for whole country. Results showed that GSR values varied from 9.86 to 24.85 MJ m-2 day-1 for different stations. It was also observed that A-P model showed smaller errors than Ogelman and Bahel models. All the models well estimated GSR, as the 1:1 line between measured and estimated values showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ≥ 0.81 for all locations. Measured data of GSR pooled over six selected locations was analyzed to obtain a new set of constants for A-P equation which can be applicable throughout the country. The set of constants (a = 0.29 and b = 0.40) was named as "One India One Constant (OIOC)," and the model was named as "MOIOC." Furthermore, the developed constants are validated statistically for another six locations of India and produce close estimation. High R 2 values (≥ 76%) along with low mean bias error (MBE) ranging from - 0.64 to 0.05 MJ m-2 day-1 revealed that the new constants are able to predict GSR with lesser percentage of error.

  4. Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

    Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

    2011-12-01

    In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our

  5. Estimating a planetary magnetic field with time-dependent global MHD simulations using an adjoint approach

    C. Nabert

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The interaction of the solar wind with a planetary magnetic field causes electrical currents that modify the magnetic field distribution around the planet. We present an approach to estimating the planetary magnetic field from in situ spacecraft data using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD simulation approach. The method is developed with respect to the upcoming BepiColombo mission to planet Mercury aimed at determining the planet's magnetic field and its interior electrical conductivity distribution. In contrast to the widely used empirical models, global MHD simulations allow the calculation of the strongly time-dependent interaction process of the solar wind with the planet. As a first approach, we use a simple MHD simulation code that includes time-dependent solar wind and magnetic field parameters. The planetary parameters are estimated by minimizing the misfit of spacecraft data and simulation results with a gradient-based optimization. As the calculation of gradients with respect to many parameters is usually very time-consuming, we investigate the application of an adjoint MHD model. This adjoint MHD model is generated by an automatic differentiation tool to compute the gradients efficiently. The computational cost for determining the gradient with an adjoint approach is nearly independent of the number of parameters. Our method is validated by application to THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms magnetosheath data to estimate Earth's dipole moment.

  6. Uncertainty analysis in estimating Japanese ingestion of global fallout Cs-137 using health risk evaluation model

    Shimada, Yoko; Morisawa, Shinsuke

    1998-01-01

    Most of model estimation of the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, the uncertainty was analyzed in a model for evaluating the ingestion of radionuclide caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination by using various uncertainty analysis methods: the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which include their own uncertainty; we also analyzed the uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the discrepancy between predicted value by the model simulation and the observed data is less than 10%; the uncertainty of the predicted value is higher before 1950 and after 1980; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be reduced by decreasing the uncertainty of some environmental parameters in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: direct foliar absorption coefficient, transfer factor of radionuclide from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual rate by food processing and cooking, transfer factor of radionuclide in ocean and sedimentation in ocean. (author)

  7. An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

    Linares-Rodriguez, Alvaro; Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio; Pozo-Vazquez, David; Tovar-Pescador, Joaquin

    2013-01-01

    An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected – eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery. - Highlights: • Daily solar radiation data are generated using an artificial neural network ensemble. • Eleven Meteosat channels observations and a clear sky term are used as model inputs. • Model exploits all information within infrared Meteosat channels. • Measured data for a year from 83 ground stations are used. • The proposed approach has better performance than existing models on daily basis

  8. Inverse modelling estimates of N2O surface emissions and stratospheric losses using a global dataset

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Meinhardt, F.; O'Doherty, S.; Moncrieff, J. B.; Popa, M.; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; Schuck, T. J.; Brenninkmeijer, C. A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Kort, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS), as it is a precursor of NO and NO2, which catalytically destroy ozone in the stratosphere. Recently, N2O emissions have been recognised as the most important ODS emissions and are now of greater importance than emissions of CFC's. The growth in atmospheric N2O is predominantly due to the enhancement of surface emissions by human activities. Most notably, the intensification and proliferation of agriculture since the mid-19th century, which has been accompanied by the increased input of reactive nitrogen to soils and has resulted in significant perturbations to the natural N-cycle and emissions of N2O. There exist two approaches for estimating N2O emissions, the so-called 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' approaches. Top-down approaches, based on the inversion of atmospheric measurements, require an estimate of the loss of N2O via photolysis and oxidation in the stratosphere. Uncertainties in the loss magnitude contribute uncertainties of 15 to 20% to the global annual surface emissions, complicating direct comparisons between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we present a novel inversion framework for the simultaneous optimization of N2O surface emissions and the magnitude of the loss, which avoids errors in the emissions due to incorrect assumptions about the lifetime of N2O. We use a Bayesian inversion with a variational formulation (based on 4D-Var) in order to handle very large datasets. N2O fluxes are retrieved at 4-weekly resolution over a global domain with a spatial resolution of 3.75° x 2.5° longitude by latitude. The efficacy of the simultaneous optimization of emissions and losses is tested using a global synthetic dataset, which mimics the available atmospheric data. Lastly, using real

  9. Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Shankar, D.

    yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm/ yrear-1 , with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr-1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data, with a regional average of 1.29 mm-1.. These estimates are consistent...

  10. Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food

    Pires, Sara Monteiro; Fischer-Walker, Christa L; Lanata, Claudio F

    2015-01-01

    Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the gl...

  11. A New Global LAI Product and Its Use for Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Estimation

    Chen, J. M.; Liu, R.; Ju, W.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    For improving the estimation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, a new time series of the leaf area index (LAI) is generated for the global land surface at 8 km resolution from 1981 to 2012 by combining AVHRR and MODIS satellite data. This product differs from existing LAI products in the following two aspects: (1) the non-random spatial distribution of leaves with the canopy is considered, and (2) the seasonal variation of the vegetation background is included. The non-randomness of the leaf spatial distribution in the canopy is considered using the second vegetation structural parameter named clumping index (CI), which quantifies the deviation of the leaf spatial distribution from the random case. Using the MODIS Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function product, a global map of CI is produced at 500 m resolution. In our LAI algorithm, CI is used to convert the effective LAI obtained from mono-angle remote sensing into the true LAI, otherwise LAI would be considerably underestimated. The vegetation background is soil in crop, grass and shrub but includes soil, grass, moss, and litter in forests. Through processing a large volume of MISR data from 2000 to 2010, monthly red and near-infrared reflectances of the vegetation background is mapped globally at 1 km resolution. This new LAI product has been validated extensively using ground-based LAI measurements distributed globally. In carbon cycle modeling, the use of CI in addition to LAI allows for accurate separation of sunlit and shaded leaves as an important step in terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration modeling. Carbon flux measurements over 100 sites over the globe are used to validate an ecosystem model named Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The validated model is run globally at 8 km resolution for the period from 1981 to 2012 using the LAI product and other spatial datasets. The modeled results suggest that changes in vegetation structure as quantified

  12. Estimation of accumulated dose of radiation by the method of ESR-spectrometry of dental enamel of mammals

    Serezhenkov, V.A.; Moroz, I.A.; Vanin, A.F.; Klevezal, G.A.

    1997-01-01

    ESR-spectrometry was used to investigate radiation-induced paramagnetic centers in enamel of mammals: carnivores (polar bear and fox), ungulates (reindeer, European bison, moose), and man. Values at half the microwave power saturation of the radiation signal, P 1/2 , evaluated at room temperature, was found to range from 16 to 26 mW for animals and man. A new approach to discrimination of the radiation induced signal from the total ESR spectrum of reindeer enamel is proposed. ''Dose-response'' dependencies of enamel of different species mammals were measured within the dose range from 0.48 up to 10.08 Gy. Estimations of ''radiosensitivity'' enamel of carnivores and ungulates showed good agreement with radiosensitivity enamel of man by ESR method. (Author)

  13. Estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere due to time mean currents

    Roble, R.G.; Matsushita, S.

    1975-01-01

    An estimate of the global-scale joule heating rates in the thermosphere is made based on derived global equivalent overhead electric current systems in the dynamo region during geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods. The equivalent total electric field distribution is calculated from Ohm's law. The global-scale joule heating rates are calculated for various monthly average periods in 1965. The calculated joule heating rates maximize at high latitudes in the early evening and postmidnight sectors. During geomagnetically quiet times the daytime joule heating rates are considerably lower than heating by solar EUV radiation. However, during geomagnetically disturbed periods the estimated joule heating rates increase by an order of magnitude and can locally exceed the solar EUV heating rates. The results show that joule heating is an important and at times the dominant energy source at high latitudes. However, the global mean joule heating rates calculated near solar minimum are generally small compared to the global mean solar EUV heating rates. (auth)

  14. Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-06-01

    In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

  15. An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

    Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

    2012-01-01

    Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

  16. Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Staci R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. These methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.

  17. New horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey based on robust coplot supported genetic programming technique

    Demirhan, Haydar; Kayhan Atilgan, Yasemin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Precise horizontal global solar radiation estimation models are proposed for Turkey. • Genetic programming technique is used to construct the models. • Robust coplot analysis is applied to reduce the impact of outlier observations. • Better estimation and prediction properties are observed for the models. - Abstract: Renewable energy sources have been attracting more and more attention of researchers due to the diminishing and harmful nature of fossil energy sources. Because of the importance of solar energy as a renewable energy source, an accurate determination of significant covariates and their relationships with the amount of global solar radiation reaching the Earth is a critical research problem. There are numerous meteorological and terrestrial covariates that can be used in the analysis of horizontal global solar radiation. Some of these covariates are highly correlated with each other. It is possible to find a large variety of linear or non-linear models to explain the amount of horizontal global solar radiation. However, models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the smallest set of covariates should be obtained. In this study, use of the robust coplot technique to reduce the number of covariates before going forward with advanced modelling techniques is considered. After reducing the dimensionality of model space, yearly and monthly mean daily horizontal global solar radiation estimation models for Turkey are built by using the genetic programming technique. It is observed that application of robust coplot analysis is helpful for building precise models that explain the amount of global solar radiation with the minimum number of covariates without suffering from outlier observations and the multicollinearity problem. Consequently, over a dataset of Turkey, precise yearly and monthly mean daily global solar radiation estimation models are introduced using the model spaces obtained by robust coplot technique and

  18. Estimating Daily Global Evapotranspiration Using Penman–Monteith Equation and Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature

    Roozbeh Raoufi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily evapotranspiration (ET is modeled globally for the period 2000–2013 based on the Penman–Monteith equation with radiation and vapor pressures derived using remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS on the Aqua and Terra satellites. The ET for a given land area is based on four surface conditions: wet/dry and vegetated/non-vegetated. For each, the ET resistance terms are based on land cover, leaf area index (LAI and literature values. The vegetated/non-vegetated fractions of the land surface are estimated using land cover, LAI, a simplified version of the Beer–Lambert law for describing light transition through vegetation and newly derived light extension coefficients for each MODIS land cover type. The wet/dry fractions of the land surface are nonlinear functions of LST derived humidity calibrated using in-situ ET measurements. Results are compared to in-situ measurements (average of the root mean squared errors and mean absolute errors for 39 sites are 0.81 mm day−1 and 0.59 mm day−1, respectively and the MODIS ET product, MOD16, (mean bias during 2001–2013 is −0.2 mm day−1. Although the mean global difference between MOD16 and ET estimates is only 0.2 mm day−1, local temperature derived vapor pressures are the likely contributor to differences, especially in energy and water limited regions. The intended application for the presented model is simulating ET based on long-term climate forecasts (e.g., using only minimum, maximum and mean daily or monthly temperatures.

  19. Muon g-2 Estimates. Can One Trust Effective Lagrangians and Global Fits?

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L.

    2015-07-01

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) Model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an Effective Lagrangian (BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework; a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e + e - annihilation into the 6 final states - π + π - , π 0 γ, ηγ, π + π - π 0 , K + K - , K L K S - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a th μ of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved compared to its partner derived from integrating the measured spectra directly. However, most spectra for the process e + e - → π + π - undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, and one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a th μ . However, an iterated fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied succesfully to the e + e - → π + π - data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE (including the latest sample) and BaBar. The iterated fit solution is shown to be further improved and leads to a value for a μ different from aexp above the 4σ level. The contribution of the π + π - intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV to a μ derived from the iterated fit benefits from an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. The main issue raised in this study and the kind of solution proposed may be of concern for other data driven methods when the data samples are dominated by global normalization uncertainties.

  20. Towards continuous global measurements and optimal emission estimates of NF3

    Arnold, T.; Muhle, J.; Salameh, P.; Harth, C.; Ivy, D. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2011-12-01

    We present an analytical method for the continuous in situ measurement of nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) - an anthropogenic gas with a global warming potential of ~16800 over a 100 year time horizon. NF3 is not included in national reporting emissions inventories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, it is a rapidly emerging greenhouse gas due to emission from a growing number of manufacturing facilities with increasing output and modern end-use applications, namely in microcircuit etching, and in production of flat panel displays and thin-film photovoltaic cells. Despite success in measuring the most volatile long lived halogenated species such as CF4, the Medusa preconcentration GC/MS system of Miller et al. (2008) is unable to detect NF3 under remote operation. Using altered techniques of gas separation and chromatography after initial preconcentration, we are now able to make continuous atmospheric measurements of NF3 with average precisions NF3 produced. Emission factors are shown to have reduced over the last decade; however, rising production and end-use have caused the average global atmospheric concentration to double between 2005 and 2011 i.e. half the atmospheric NF3 present today originates from emissions after 2005. Finally we show the first continuous in situ measurements from La Jolla, California, illustrating how global deployment of our technique could improve the temporal and spatial scale of NF3 'top-down' emission estimates over the coming years. These measurements will be important for independent verification of emissions should NF3 be regulated under a new climate treaty.

  1. Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

    ter Steege, Hans; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Killeen, Timothy J.; Laurance, William F.; Peres, Carlos A.; Guevara, Juan Ernesto; Salomão, Rafael P.; Castilho, Carolina V.; Amaral, Iêda Leão; de Almeida Matos, Francisca Dionízia; de Souza Coelho, Luiz; Magnusson, William E.; Phillips, Oliver L.; de Andrade Lima Filho, Diogenes; de Jesus Veiga Carim, Marcelo; Irume, Mariana Victória; Martins, Maria Pires; Molino, Jean-François; Sabatier, Daniel; Wittmann, Florian; López, Dairon Cárdenas; da Silva Guimarães, José Renan; Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Manzatto, Angelo Gilberto; Reis, Neidiane Farias Costa; Terborgh, John; Casula, Katia Regina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Honorio Coronado, Euridice N.; Montoya, Alvaro Javier Duque; Zartman, Charles Eugene; Mostacedo, Bonifacio; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Assis, Rafael L.; Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Andrade, Ana; Camargo, José Luís; Laurance, Susan G. W.; Nascimento, Henrique Eduardo Mendonça; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Marimon, Ben-Hur; Costa, Flávia; Targhetta, Natalia; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Brienen, Roel; Castellanos, Hernán; Duivenvoorden, Joost F.; Mogollón, Hugo F.; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Aymard C., Gerardo A.; Comiskey, James A.; Damasco, Gabriel; Dávila, Nállarett; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Diaz, Pablo Roberto Stevenson; Vincentini, Alberto; Emilio, Thaise; Levis, Carolina; Schietti, Juliana; Souza, Priscila; Alonso, Alfonso; Dallmeier, Francisco; Ferreira, Leandro Valle; Neill, David; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arroyo, Luzmila; Carvalho, Fernanda Antunes; Souza, Fernanda Coelho; do Amaral, Dário Dantas; Gribel, Rogerio; Luize, Bruno Garcia; Pansonato, Marcelo Petrati; Venticinque, Eduardo; Fine, Paul; Toledo, Marisol; Baraloto, Chris; Cerón, Carlos; Engel, Julien; Henkel, Terry W.; Jimenez, Eliana M.; Maas, Paul; Mora, Maria Cristina Peñuela; Petronelli, Pascal; Revilla, Juan David Cardenas; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Thomas-Caesar, Raquel; Baker, Tim R.; Daly, Doug; Paredes, Marcos Ríos; da Silva, Naara Ferreira; Fuentes, Alfredo; Jørgensen, Peter Møller; Schöngart, Jochen; Silman, Miles R.; Arboleda, Nicolás Castaño; Cintra, Bruno Barçante Ladvocat; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Phillips, Juan Fernando; van Andel, Tinde R.; von Hildebrand, Patricio; Barbosa, Edelcilio Marques; de Matos Bonates, Luiz Carlos; de Castro, Deborah; de Sousa Farias, Emanuelle; Gonzales, Therany; Guillaumet, Jean-Louis; Hoffman, Bruce; Malhi, Yadvinder; de Andrade Miranda, Ires Paula; Prieto, Adriana; Rudas, Agustín; Ruschell, Ademir R.; Silva, Natalino; Vela, César I. A.; Vos, Vincent A.; Zent, Eglée L.; Zent, Stanford; Cano, Angela; Nascimento, Marcelo Trindade; Oliveira, Alexandre A.; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Ramos, José Ferreira; Sierra, Rodrigo; Tirado, Milton; Medina, Maria Natalia Umaña; van der Heijden, Geertje; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vriesendorp, Corine; Wang, Ophelia; Young, Kenneth R.; Baider, Claudia; Balslev, Henrik; de Castro, Natalia; Farfan-Rios, William; Ferreira, Cid; Mendoza, Casimiro; Mesones, Italo; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Giraldo, Ligia Estela Urrego; Villarroel, Daniel; Zagt, Roderick; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Garcia-Cabrera, Karina; Hernandez, Lionel; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Milliken, William; Cuenca, Walter Palacios; Pansini, Susamar; Pauletto, Daniela; Arevalo, Freddy Ramirez; Sampaio, Adeilza Felipe; Valderrama Sandoval, Elvis H.; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century. PMID:26702442

  2. Estimating accumulation rates and physical properties of sediment behind a dam: Englebright Lake, Yuba River, northern California

    Snyder, Noah P.; Rubin, David M.; Alpers, Charles N.; Childs, Jonathan R.; Curtis, Jennifer A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Scott A.

    2004-01-01

    Studies of reservoir sedimentation are vital to understanding scientific and management issues related to watershed sediment budgets, depositional processes, reservoir operations, and dam decommissioning. Here we quantify the mass, organic content, and grain-size distribution of a reservoir deposit in northern California by two methods of extrapolating measurements of sediment physical properties from cores to the entire volume of impounded material. Englebright Dam, completed in 1940, is located on the Yuba River in the Sierra Nevada foothills. A research program is underway to assess the feasibility of introducing wild anadromous fish species to the river upstream of the dam. Possible management scenarios include removing or lowering the dam, which could cause downstream transport of stored sediment. In 2001 the volume of sediments deposited behind Englebright Dam occupied 25.5% of the original reservoir capacity. The physical properties of this deposit were calculated using data from a coring campaign that sampled the entire reservoir sediment thickness (6–32 m) at six locations in the downstream ∼3/4 of the reservoir. As a result, the sediment in the downstream part of the reservoir is well characterized, but in the coarse, upstream part of the reservoir, only surficial sediments were sampled, so calculations there are more uncertain. Extrapolation from one-dimensional vertical sections of sediment sampled in cores to entire three-dimensional volumes of the reservoir deposit is accomplished via two methods, using assumptions of variable and constant layer thickness. Overall, the two extrapolation methods yield nearly identical estimates of the mass of the reservoir deposit of ∼26 × 106 metric tons (t) of material, of which 64.7–68.5% is sand and gravel. Over the 61 year reservoir history this corresponds to a maximum basin-wide sediment yield of ∼340 t/km2/yr, assuming no contribution from upstream parts of the watershed impounded by other dams. The

  3. Carbon Dioxide Evasion from Boreal Lakes: Drivers, Variability and Revised Global Estimate

    Hastie, A. T.; Lauerwald, R.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Sobek, S.; Verpoorter, C.; Regnier, P. A. G.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon dioxide evasion (FCO2) from lakes and reservoirs is established as an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle, a fact reflected by the inclusion of these waterbodies in the most recent IPCC assessment report. In this study we developed a statistical model driven by environmental geodata, to predict CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in boreal lakes, and to create the first high resolution map (0.5°) of boreal (50°- 70°) lake pCO2. The resulting map of pCO2 was combined with lake area (lakes >0.01km2) from the recently developed GLOWABO database (Verpoorter et al., 2014) and estimates of gas transfer velocity k, to produce the first high resolution map of boreal lake FCO2. Before training our model, the geodata as well as approximately 27,000 samples of `open water' (excluding periods of ice cover) pCO2 from the boreal region, were gridded at 0.5° resolution and log transformed where necessary. A multilinear regression was used to derive a prediction equation for log10 pCO2 as a function of log10 lake area, net primary productivity (NPP), precipitation, wind speed and soil pH (r2= 0.66), and then applied in ArcGIS to build the map of pCO2. After validation, the map of boreal lake pCO2 was used to derive a map of boreal lake FCO2. For the boreal region we estimate an average, lake area weighted, pCO2 of 930 μatm and FCO2 of 170 (121-243) Tg C yr-1. Our estimate of FCO2 will soon be updated with the incorporation of the smallest lakes (<0.01km2). Despite the current exclusion of the smallest lakes, our estimate is higher than the highest previous estimate of approximately 110 Tg C yr-1 (Aufdenkampe et al, 2011). Moreover, our empirical approach driven by environmental geodata can be used as the basis for estimating future FCO2 from boreal lakes, and their sensitivity to climate change.

  4. Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

    Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; hide

    2012-01-01

    Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find

  5. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  6. Estimating sediment accumulation rates in Manila Bay, a marine pollution hot spot in the Seas of East Asia.

    Sta Maria, E J; Siringan, F P; Bulos, A dM; Sombrito, E Z

    2009-01-01

    The GEF/UNDP/IMO/PEMSEA project identifies Manila Bay as among the marine pollution hot spots in the Seas of East Asia. (210)Pb dating of its sediment can provide a historical perspective of its pollution loading. However, the validity of (210)Pb dating in a complex dynamic coastal system of Manila Bay may come into question. Land-based sediment input can be high and physical and biological processes can possibly disturb the sediment layers. In this report, the (210)Pb profiles of sediment cores from different parts of the bay are presented. The linear sedimentation rates are shown to be higher in the recent past and are also variable across the bay. The largest change in sedimentation rate, coincided with the occurrence of a volcanic eruption in 1991 and is shown by applying a variant of the CIC model in sedimentation rate calculations. The data suggest that (210)Pb dating can be useful in estimating relative magnitudes of sedimentation rates, even in a complex dynamic coastal system like Manila Bay.

  7. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd El Razek, Mohamed Magdy; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.

    Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral

  8. Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model

    Huang, J.; Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.

    2004-12-01

    In this study, we use the MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry) model and Kalman filtering techniques to optimally estimate N2O emissions from seven source regions around the globe. The MATCH model was used with NCEP assimilated winds at T62 resolution (192 longitude by 94 latitude surface grid, and 28 vertical levels) from July 1st 1996 to December 31st 2000. The average concentrations of N2O in the lowest four layers of the model were then compared with the monthly mean observations from six national/global networks (AGAGE, CMDL (HATS), CMDL (CCGG), CSIRO, CSIR and NIES), at 48 surface sites. A 12-month-running-mean smoother was applied to both the model results and the observations, due to the fact that the model was not able to reproduce the very small observed seasonal variations. The Kalman filter was then used to solve for the time-averaged regional emissions of N2O for January 1st 1997 to June 30th 2000. The inversions assume that the model stratospheric destruction rates, which lead to a global N2O lifetime of 130 years, are correct. It also assumes normalized emission spatial distributions from each region based on previous studies. We conclude that the global N2O emission flux is about 16.2 TgN/yr, with {34.9±1.7%} from South America and Africa, {34.6±1.5%} from South Asia, {13.9±1.5%} from China/Japan/South East Asia, {8.0±1.9%} from all oceans, {6.4±1.1%} from North America and North and West Asia, {2.6±0.4%} from Europe, and {0.9±0.7%} from New Zealand and Australia. The errors here include the measurement standard deviation, calibration differences among the six groups, grid volume/measurement site mis-match errors estimated from the model, and a procedure to account approximately for the modeling errors.

  9. A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate daily global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data

    Lu, Ning; Qin, Jun; Yang, Kun; Sun, Jiulin

    2011-01-01

    Surface global solar radiation (GSR) is the primary renewable energy in nature. Geostationary satellite data are used to map GSR in many inversion algorithms in which ground GSR measurements merely serve to validate the satellite retrievals. In this study, a simple algorithm with artificial neural network (ANN) modeling is proposed to explore the non-linear physical relationship between ground daily GSR measurements and Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) all-channel observations in an effort to fully exploit information contained in both data sets. Singular value decomposition is implemented to extract the principal signals from satellite data and a novel method is applied to enhance ANN performance at high altitude. A three-layer feed-forward ANN model is trained with one year of daily GSR measurements at ten ground sites. This trained ANN is then used to map continuous daily GSR for two years, and its performance is validated at all 83 ground sites in China. The evaluation result demonstrates that this algorithm can quickly and efficiently build the ANN model that estimates daily GSR from geostationary satellite data with good accuracy in both space and time. -- Highlights: → A simple and efficient algorithm to estimate GSR from geostationary satellite data. → ANN model fully exploits both the information from satellite and ground measurements. → Good performance of the ANN model is comparable to that of the classical models. → Surface elevation and infrared information enhance GSR inversion.

  10. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.

    Betowski, Don; Bevington, Charles; Allison, Thomas C

    2016-01-19

    Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained through scaling of both vibrational frequencies and intensities. The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed RE values.

  11. Empirical models validation to estimate global solar irradiance on a horizontal plan in Ouargla, Algeria

    Gougui, Abdelmoumen; Djafour, Ahmed; Khelfaoui, Narimane; Boutelli, Halima

    2018-05-01

    In this paper a comparison between three models for predicting the total solar flux falling on a horizontal surface has been processed. Capderou, Perrin & Brichambaut and Hottel models used to estimate the global solar radiation, the models are identified and evaluated using MATLAB environment. The recorded data have been obtained from a small weather station installed at the LAGE laboratory of Ouargla University, Algeria. Solar radiation data have been recorded using four sample days, every 15thday of the month, (March, April, May and October). The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) have been also calculated so as that to test the reliability of the proposed models. A comparisons between the measured and the calculated values have been made. The results obtained in this study depict that Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models are more effective to estimate the total solar intensity on a horizontal surface for clear sky over Ouargla city (Latitude of 31° 95' N, Longitude of 5° 24' E, and Altitude of 0.141km above Mean Sea Level), these models dedicated from meteorological parameters, geographical location and number of days since the first January. Perrin & Brichambaut and Capderou models give the best tendency with a CC of 0.985-0.999 and 0.932-0.995 consecutively further, Hottel give's a CC of 0.617-0.942.

  12. A simple formula for estimating global solar radiation in central arid deserts of Iran

    Sabziparvar, Ali A.

    2008-01-01

    Over the last two decades, using simple radiation models has been an interesting task to estimate daily solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts such as those in Iran, where the number of solar observation sites is poor. In Iran, most of the models used so far, have been validated for a few specific locations based on short-term solar observations. In this work, three different radiation models (Sabbagh, Paltridge, Daneshyar) have been revised to predict the climatology of monthly average daily solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in various cities in central arid deserts of Iran. The modifications are made by the inclusion of altitude, monthly total number of dusty days and seasonal variation of Sun-Earth distance. A new height-dependent formula is proposed based on MBE, MABE, MPE and RMSE statistical analysis. It is shown that the revised Sabbagh method can be a good estimator for the prediction of global solar radiation in arid and semi-arid deserts with an average error of less than 2%, that performs a more accurate prediction than those in the previous studies. The required data for the suggested method are usually available in most meteorological sites. For the locations, where some of the input data are not reported, an alternative approach is presented. (author)

  13. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    Objective To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. Design, setting and outcome measures EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks’ gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005–2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. Conclusions By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. PMID:28667189

  14. Metadata-Assisted Global Motion Estimation for Medium-Altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Video Applications

    Hongguang Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global motion estimation (GME is a key technology in unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing (UAVRS. However, when a UAV’s motion and behavior change significantly or the image information is not rich, traditional image-based methods for GME often perform poorly. Introducing bottom metadata can improve precision in a large-scale motion condition and reduce the dependence on unreliable image information. GME is divided into coarse and residual GME through coordinate transformation and based on the study hypotheses. In coarse GME, an auxiliary image is built to convert image matching from a wide baseline condition to a narrow baseline one. In residual GME, a novel information and contrast feature detection algorithm is proposed for big-block matching to maximize the use of reliable image information and ensure that the contents of interest are well estimated. Additionally, an image motion monitor is designed to select the appropriate processing strategy by monitoring the motion scales of translation, rotation, and zoom. A medium-altitude UAV is employed to collect three types of large-scale motion datasets. Peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR and motion scale are computed. This study’s result is encouraging and applicable to other medium- or high-altitude UAVs with a similar system structure.

  15. DUE GlobBiomass - Estimates of Biomass on a Global Scale

    Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

    2017-12-01

    For the last three years, a new ESA Data User Element (DUE) project had focussed on creating improved knowledge about the Essential Climate Variable Biomass. The main purpose of the DUE GlobBiomass project is to better characterize and to reduce uncertainties of AGB estimates by developing an innovative synergistic mapping approach in five regional sites (Sweden, Poland, Mexico, Kalimantan, South Africa) for the epochs 2005, 2010 and 2015 and for one global map for the year 2010. The project team includes leading Earth Observation experts of Europe and is linked through Partnership Agreements with further national bodies from Brazil, Canada, China, Russia and South Africa. GlobBiomass has demonstrated how EO observation data can be integrated with in situ measurements and ecological understanding to provide improved biomass estimates that can be effectively exploited by users. The target users had mainly be drawn from the climate and carbon cycle modelling communities and included users concerned with carbon emissions and uptake due to biomass changes within initiatives such as REDD+. GlobBiomass provided a harmonised structure that can be exploited to address user needs for biomass information, but will be capable of being progressively refined as new data and methods become available. This presentation will give an overview of the technical prerequisites and final results of the GlobBiomass project.

  16. Estimating Global Burden of Disease due to congenital anomaly: an analysis of European data.

    Boyle, Breidge; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Csáky-Szunyogh, Melinda; de Walle, Hermien E K; Dias, Carlos Matias; Draper, Elizabeth; Gatt, Miriam; Garne, Ester; Haeusler, Martin; Källén, Karin; Latos-Bielenska, Anna; McDonnell, Bob; Mullaney, Carmel; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary; Queisser-Wahrendorf, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Ritvanen, Annukka; Rounding, Catherine; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Wreyford, Ben; Zymak-Zakutnia, Natalia; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    To validate the estimates of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) due to congenital anomaly for Europe by comparing infant mortality data collected by EUROCAT registries with the WHO Mortality Database, and by assessing the significance of stillbirths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) in the interpretation of infant mortality statistics. EUROCAT is a network of congenital anomaly registries collecting data on live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation and TOPFA. Data from 29 registries in 19 countries were analysed for 2005-2009, and infant mortality (deaths of live births at age congenital anomaly. In 11 EUROCAT countries, average infant mortality with congenital anomaly was 1.1 per 1000 births, with higher rates where TOPFA is illegal (Malta 3.0, Ireland 2.1). The rate of stillbirths with congenital anomaly was 0.6 per 1000. The average TOPFA prevalence was 4.6 per 1000, nearly three times more prevalent than stillbirths and infant deaths combined. TOPFA also impacted on the prevalence of postneonatal survivors with non-lethal congenital anomaly. By excluding TOPFA and stillbirths from GBD years of life lost (YLL) estimates, GBD underestimates the burden of disease due to congenital anomaly, and thus declining YLL over time may obscure lack of progress in primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Measurement of Global Solar Radiation data using Raspberry Pi and its estimation using Genetic Algorithm

    Priya S.Shanmuga

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The demand for more efficient and environmentally benign, non-conventional sources of energy came into picture due to increasing demands for human comforts. Solar energy is now the ultimate option. In this paper, the instruments used to measure the solar radiation at Innovation Centre, MIT Manipal were connected to a Raspberry Pi to access the data remotely. Genetic Algorithms were formulated, so that the monthly mean global solar radiation in Manipal can be effectively estimated. Meteorological data such as humidity, temperature, wind speed, etc. were used as inputs to train the networks. A successful network was made between the data loggers and the Raspberry Pi. The data collected by the data loggers from the devices are transmitted to the Raspberry Pi which in turn sends the data to an internal server. The Raspberry Pi can be accessed using any SSH client such as PuTTY. The meteorological data was collected for the years 2010-2014 in order to formulate the Artificial Intelligence models. The validity of the formulated models were checked by comparing the measured data with the estimated data using tools such as RMSE, correlation coefficient, etc. The modelling of solar radiation using GA was carried out in GeneXpro tools version 5.0.

  18. Estimation of Atmospheric Methane Surface Fluxes Using a Global 3-D Chemical Transport Model

    Chen, Y.; Prinn, R.

    2003-12-01

    Accurate determination of atmospheric methane surface fluxes is an important and challenging problem in global biogeochemical cycles. We use inverse modeling to estimate annual, seasonal, and interannual CH4 fluxes between 1996 and 2001. The fluxes include 7 time-varying seasonal (3 wetland, rice, and 3 biomass burning) and 3 steady aseasonal (animals/waste, coal, and gas) global processes. To simulate atmospheric methane, we use the 3-D chemical transport model MATCH driven by NCEP reanalyzed observed winds at a resolution of T42 ( ˜2.8° x 2.8° ) in the horizontal and 28 levels (1000 - 3 mb) in the vertical. By combining existing datasets of individual processes, we construct a reference emissions field that represents our prior guess of the total CH4 surface flux. For the methane sink, we use a prescribed, annually-repeating OH field scaled to fit methyl chloroform observations. MATCH is used to produce both the reference run from the reference emissions, and the time-dependent sensitivities that relate individual emission processes to observations. The observational data include CH4 time-series from ˜15 high-frequency (in-situ) and ˜50 low-frequency (flask) observing sites. Most of the high-frequency data, at a time resolution of 40-60 minutes, have not previously been used in global scale inversions. In the inversion, the high-frequency data generally have greater weight than the weekly flask data because they better define the observational monthly means. The Kalman Filter is used as the optimal inversion technique to solve for emissions between 1996-2001. At each step in the inversion, new monthly observations are utilized and new emissions estimates are produced. The optimized emissions represent deviations from the reference emissions that lead to a better fit to the observations. The seasonal processes are optimized for each month, and contain the methane seasonality and interannual variability. The aseasonal processes, which are less variable, are

  19. Muon g-2 estimates: can one trust effective Lagrangians and global fits?

    Benayoun, M., E-mail: benayoun@in2p3.fr [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); David, P. [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); LIED, Université Paris-Diderot/CNRS UMR 8236, 75013, Paris (France); DelBuono, L. [LPNHE des Universités Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, 75252, Paris (France); Jegerlehner, F. [Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Newtonstrasse 15, 12489, Berlin (Germany); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Platanenallee 6, 15738, Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-12-26

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an effective Lagrangian (Broken Hidden Local Symmetry, BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework. Based on it, a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into six final states—π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S}—and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sub μ}{sup th} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved in comparison to the standard approach of integrating the measured spectra directly. However, because most spectra for the annihilation process e{sup +}e{sup -}→π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sub μ}{sup th}, which could question the reliability of the global fit method. However, an iterated global fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied successfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -}→π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE, BaBar, and BESSIII. The iterated fit solution is shown to further improve the prediction for a{sub μ}, which we find to deviate from its experimental value above the 4σ level. The contribution to a{sub μ} of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV has an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results.

  20. Muon g - 2 estimates. Can one trust effective Lagrangians and global fits?

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L. [LPNHE des Universites Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, Paris (France); David, P. [LPNHE des Universites Paris VI et Paris VII IN2P3/CNRS, Paris (France); LIED, Universite Paris-Diderot/CNRS UMR 8236, Paris (France); Jegerlehner, F. [Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Institut fuer Physik, Berlin (Germany); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-12-15

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an effective Lagrangian (Broken Hidden Local Symmetry, BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework. Based on it, a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into six final states - π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S} - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sub μ}{sup th} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved in comparison to the standard approach of integrating the measured spectra directly. However, because most spectra for the annihilation process e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sub μ}{sup th}, which could question the reliability of the global fit method. However, an iterated global fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied successfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE, BaBar, and BESSIII. The iterated fit solution is shown to further improve the prediction for a{sub μ}, which we find to deviate from its experimental value above the 4σ level. The contribution to a{sub μ} of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV has an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. (orig.)

  1. Global error estimation based on the tolerance proportionality for some adaptive Runge-Kutta codes

    Calvo, M.; González-Pinto, S.; Montijano, J. I.

    2008-09-01

    Modern codes for the numerical solution of Initial Value Problems (IVPs) in ODEs are based in adaptive methods that, for a user supplied tolerance [delta], attempt to advance the integration selecting the size of each step so that some measure of the local error is [similar, equals][delta]. Although this policy does not ensure that the global errors are under the prescribed tolerance, after the early studies of Stetter [Considerations concerning a theory for ODE-solvers, in: R. Burlisch, R.D. Grigorieff, J. Schröder (Eds.), Numerical Treatment of Differential Equations, Proceedings of Oberwolfach, 1976, Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 631, Springer, Berlin, 1978, pp. 188-200; Tolerance proportionality in ODE codes, in: R. März (Ed.), Proceedings of the Second Conference on Numerical Treatment of Ordinary Differential Equations, Humbold University, Berlin, 1980, pp. 109-123] and the extensions of Higham [Global error versus tolerance for explicit Runge-Kutta methods, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 11 (1991) 457-480; The tolerance proportionality of adaptive ODE solvers, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 45 (1993) 227-236; The reliability of standard local error control algorithms for initial value ordinary differential equations, in: Proceedings: The Quality of Numerical Software: Assessment and Enhancement, IFIP Series, Springer, Berlin, 1997], it has been proved that in many existing explicit Runge-Kutta codes the global errors behave asymptotically as some rational power of [delta]. This step-size policy, for a given IVP, determines at each grid point tn a new step-size hn+1=h(tn;[delta]) so that h(t;[delta]) is a continuous function of t. In this paper a study of the tolerance proportionality property under a discontinuous step-size policy that does not allow to change the size of the step if the step-size ratio between two consecutive steps is close to unity is carried out. This theory is applied to obtain global error estimations in a few problems that have been solved with

  2. Estimating Net Primary Productivity Beneath Snowpack Using Snowpack Radiative Transfer Modeling and Global Satellite Data

    Barber, D. E.; Peterson, M. C.

    2002-05-01

    Sufficient photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) penetrates snow for plants to grow beneath snowpack during late winter or early spring in tundra ecosystems. During the spring in this ecosystem, the snowpack creates an environment with higher humidity and less variable and milder temperatures than on the snow-free land. Under these conditions, the amount of PAR available is likely to be the limiting factor for plant growth. Current methods for determining net primary productivity (NPP) of tundra ecosystems do not account for this plant growth beneath snowpack, apparently resulting in underestimating plant production there. We are currently in the process of estimating the magnitude of this early growth beneath snow for tundra ecosystems. Our method includes a radiative transfer model that simulates diffuse and direct PAR penetrating snowpack based on downwelling PAR values and snow depth data from global satellite databases. These PAR levels are convolved with plant growth for vegetation that thrives beneath snowpacks, such as lichen. We expect to present the net primary production for Cladonia species (a common Arctic lichen) that has the capability of photosynthesizing at low temperatures beneath snowpack. This method may also be used to study photosynthesis beneath snowpacks in other hardy plants. Lichens are used here as they are common in snow-covered regions, flourish under snowpack, and provide an important food source for tundra herbivores (e.g. caribou). In addition, lichens are common in arctic-alpine environments and our results can be applied to these ecosystems as well. Finally, the NPP of lichen beneath snowpack is relatively well understood compared to other plants, making it ideal vegetation for this first effort at estimating the potential importance of photosynthesis at large scales. We are examining other candidate plants for their photosynthetic potential beneath snowpack at this time; however, little research has been done on this topic. We

  3. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

  4. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

    2012-08-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

  5. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  6. Globalization

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  7. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  8. Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012.

    Takala, Jukka; Hämäläinen, Päivi; Saarela, Kaija Leena; Yun, Loke Yoke; Manickam, Kathiresan; Jin, Tan Wee; Heng, Peggy; Tjong, Caleb; Kheng, Lim Guan; Lim, Samuel; Lin, Gan Siok

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews the present indicators, trends, and recent solutions and strategies to tackle major global and country problems in safety and health at work. The article is based on the Yant Award Lecture of the American Industrial Hygiene Association (AIHA) at its 2013 Congress. We reviewed employment figures, mortality rates, occupational burden of disease and injuries, reported accidents, surveys on self-reported occupational illnesses and injuries, attributable fractions, national economic cost estimates of work-related injuries and ill health, and the most recent information on the problems from published papers, documents, and electronic data sources of international and regional organizations, in particular the International Labor Organization (ILO), World Health Organization (WHO), and European Union (EU), institutions, agencies, and public websites. We identified and analyzed successful solutions, programs, and strategies to reduce the work-related negative outcomes at various levels. Work-related illnesses that have a long latency period and are linked to ageing are clearly on the increase, while the number of occupational injuries has gone down in industrialized countries thanks to both better prevention and structural changes. We have estimated that globally there are 2.3 million deaths annually for reasons attributed to work. The biggest component is linked to work-related diseases, 2.0 million, and 0.3 million linked to occupational injuries. However, the division of these two factors varies depending on the level of development. In industrialized countries the share of deaths caused by occupational injuries and work-related communicable diseases is very low while non-communicable diseases are the overwhelming causes in those countries. Economic costs of work-related injury and illness vary between 1.8 and 6.0% of GDP in country estimates, the average being 4% according to the ILO. Singapore's economic costs were estimated to be equivalent to 3

  9. The global burden of snakebite: a literature analysis and modelling based on regional estimates of envenoming and deaths.

    Anuradhani Kasturiratne

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Envenoming resulting from snakebites is an important public health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries. Few attempts have been made to quantify the burden, and recent estimates all suffer from the lack of an objective and reproducible methodology. In an attempt to provide an accurate, up-to-date estimate of the scale of the global problem, we developed a new method to estimate the disease burden due to snakebites. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The global estimates were based on regional estimates that were, in turn, derived from data available for countries within a defined region. Three main strategies were used to obtain primary data: electronic searching for publications on snakebite, extraction of relevant country-specific mortality data from databases maintained by United Nations organizations, and identification of grey literature by discussion with key informants. Countries were grouped into 21 distinct geographic regions that are as epidemiologically homogenous as possible, in line with the Global Burden of Disease 2005 study (Global Burden Project of the World Bank. Incidence rates for envenoming were extracted from publications and used to estimate the number of envenomings for individual countries; if no data were available for a particular country, the lowest incidence rate within a neighbouring country was used. Where death registration data were reliable, reported deaths from snakebite were used; in other countries, deaths were estimated on the basis of observed mortality rates and the at-risk population. We estimate that, globally, at least 421,000 envenomings and 20,000 deaths occur each year due to snakebite. These figures may be as high as 1,841,000 envenomings and 94,000 deaths. Based on the fact that envenoming occurs in about one in every four snakebites, between 1.2 million and 5.5 million snakebites could occur annually. CONCLUSIONS: Snakebites cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The

  10. A long baseline global stereo matching based upon short baseline estimation

    Li, Jing; Zhao, Hong; Li, Zigang; Gu, Feifei; Zhao, Zixin; Ma, Yueyang; Fang, Meiqi

    2018-05-01

    In global stereo vision, balancing the matching efficiency and computing accuracy seems to be impossible because they contradict each other. In the case of a long baseline, this contradiction becomes more prominent. In order to solve this difficult problem, this paper proposes a novel idea to improve both the efficiency and accuracy in global stereo matching for a long baseline. In this way, the reference images located between the long baseline image pairs are firstly chosen to form the new image pairs with short baselines. The relationship between the disparities of pixels in the image pairs with different baselines is revealed by considering the quantized error so that the disparity search range under the long baseline can be reduced by guidance of the short baseline to gain matching efficiency. Then, the novel idea is integrated into the graph cuts (GCs) to form a multi-step GC algorithm based on the short baseline estimation, by which the disparity map under the long baseline can be calculated iteratively on the basis of the previous matching. Furthermore, the image information from the pixels that are non-occluded under the short baseline but are occluded for the long baseline can be employed to improve the matching accuracy. Although the time complexity of the proposed method depends on the locations of the chosen reference images, it is usually much lower for a long baseline stereo matching than when using the traditional GC algorithm. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is examined by experiments based on benchmark datasets. The results show that the proposed method is superior to the traditional GC method in terms of efficiency and accuracy, and thus it is suitable for long baseline stereo matching.

  11. Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species.

    Muhammed A Oyinlola

    Full Text Available Aquaculture has grown rapidly over the last three decades expanding at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% (2005-2014, down from 8.8% achieved between 1980 and 2010. The sector now produces 44% of total food fish production. Increasing demand and consumption from a growing global population are driving further expansion of both inland and marine aquaculture (i.e., mariculture, including marine species farmed on land. However, the growth of mariculture is dependent on the availability of suitable farming areas for new facilities, particularly for open farming practices that rely on the natural oceanic environmental parameters such as temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll etc. In this study, we estimated the marine areas within the exclusive economic zones of all countries that were suitable for potential open ocean mariculture activities. To this end, we quantify the environmental niche and inferred the global habitat suitability index (HSI of the 102 most farmed marine species using four species distribution models. The average weighted HSI across the four models suggests that 72,000,000 km2 of ocean are to be environmentally suitable to farm one or more species. About 92% of the predicted area (66,000,000 km2 is environmentally suitable for farming finfish, 43% (31,000,000 km2 for molluscs and 54% (39,000,000 km2 for crustaceans. These predictions do not consider technological feasibility that can limit crustaceans farming in open waters. Suitable mariculture areas along the Atlantic coast of South America and West Africa appear to be most under-utilized for farming. Our results suggest that factors other than environmental considerations such as the lack of socio-economic and technological capacity, as well as aqua feed supply are currently limiting the potential for mariculture expansion in many areas.

  12. Estimating global mortality from potentially foodborne diseases: an analysis using vital registration data

    Hanson Laura A

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foodborne diseases (FBD comprise a large part of the global mortality burden, yet the true extent of their impact remains unknown. The present study utilizes multiple regression with the first attempt to use nonhealth variables to predict potentially FBD mortality at the country level. Methods Vital registration (VR data were used to build a multiple regression model incorporating nonhealth variables in addition to traditionally used health indicators. This model was subsequently used to predict FBD mortality rates for all countries of the World Health Organization classifications AmrA, AmrB, EurA, and EurB. Results Statistical modeling strongly supported the inclusion of nonhealth variables in a multiple regression model as predictors of potentially FBD mortality. Six variables were included in the final model: percent irrigated land, average calorie supply from animal products, meat production in metric tons, adult literacy rate, adult HIV/AIDS prevalence, and percent of deaths under age 5 caused by diarrheal disease. Interestingly, nonhealth variables were not only more robust predictors of mortality than health variables but also remained significant when adding additional health variables into the analysis. Mortality rate predictions from our model ranged from 0.26 deaths per 100,000 (Netherlands to 15.65 deaths per 100,000 (Honduras. Reported mortality rates of potentially FBD from VR data lie within the 95% prediction interval for the majority of countries (37/39 where comparison was possible. Conclusions Nonhealth variables appear to be strong predictors of potentially FBD mortality at the country level and may be a powerful tool in the effort to estimate the global mortality burden of FBD. Disclaimer The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the World Health Organization.

  13. Determination of atmospheric parameters to estimate global radiation in areas of complex topography: Generation of global irradiation map

    Batlles, F.J.; Bosch, J.L. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Tovar-Pescador, J. [Dpto. Fisica, Universidad de Jaen, 23071 Jaen (Spain); Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. Ingenieria Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Ortega, R. [Dpto. Edafologia y Quimica Agricola, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Miralles, I. [Dpto. Edafologia y Quimica Agricola, Universidad de Granada, 28071 Granada (Spain)

    2008-02-15

    Incoming shortwave solar radiation is an important parameter in environmental applications. A detailed spatial and temporal analysis of global solar radiation on the earth surface is needed in many applications, ranging from solar energy uses to the study of agricultural, forest and biological processes. At local scales, the topography is the most important factor in the distribution of solar radiation on the surface. The variability of the elevation, the surface orientation and the obstructions due to elevations are a source of great local differences in insolation and, consequently, in other variables as ground temperature. For this reason, several models based on GIS techniques have been recently developed, integrating topography to obtain the solar radiation on the surface. In this work, global radiation is analyzed with the Solar Analyst, a model implemented on ArcView, that computes the topographic parameters: altitude, latitude, slope and orientation (azimuth) and shadow effects. Solar Analyst uses as input parameters the diffuse fraction and the transmittance. These parameters are not usually available in radiometric networks in mountainous areas. In this work, a method to obtain both parameters from global radiation is proposed. Global radiation data obtained in two networks of radiometric stations is used: one located in Sierra Magina Natural Park (Spain) with 11 stations and another one located on the surroundings of Sierra Nevada Natural Park (Spain) with 14 stations. Daily solar irradiation is calculated from a digital terrain model (DTM), the daily diffuse fraction, K, and daily atmospheric transmittivity, {tau}. Results provided by the model have been compared with measured values. An overestimation for high elevations is observed, whereas low altitudes present underestimation. The best performance was also reported during summer months, and the worst results were obtained during winter. Finally, a yearly global solar irradiation map has been

  14. Estimate of the global burden of cervical adenocarcinoma and potential impact of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination

    Pimenta, Jeanne M; Galindo, Claudia; Jenkins, David; Taylor, Sylvia M

    2013-01-01

    Data on the current burden of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and histology-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) type distribution are relevant to predict the future impact of prophylactic HPV vaccines. We estimate the proportion of ADC in invasive cervical cancer, the global number of cases of cervical ADC in 2015, the effect of cervical screening on ADC, the number of ADC cases attributable to high-risk HPV types -16, -18, -45, -31 and -33, and the potential impact of HPV vaccination using a variety of data sources including: GLOBOCAN 2008, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) Volume IX, cervical screening data from the World Health Organization/Institut Català d'Oncologia Information Centre on HPV and cervical cancer, and published literature. ADC represents 9.4% of all ICC although its contribution varies greatly by country and region. The global crude incidence rate of cervical ADC in 2015 is estimated at 1.6 cases per 100,000 women, and the projected worldwide incidence of ADC in 2015 is 56,805 new cases. Current detection rates for HPV DNA in cervical ADC tend to range around 80–85%; the lower HPV detection rates in cervical ADC versus squamous cell carcinoma may be due to technical artefacts or to misdiagnosis of endometrial carcinoma as cervical ADC. Published data indicate that the five most common HPV types found in cervical ADC are HPV-16 (41.6%), -18 (38.7%), -45 (7.0%), -31 (2.2%) and -33 (2.1%), together comprising 92% of all HPV positive cases. Future projections using 2015 data, assuming 100% vaccine coverage and a true HPV causal relation of 100%, suggest that vaccines providing protection against HPV-16/18 may theoretically prevent 79% of new HPV-related ADC cases (44,702 cases annually) and vaccines additionally providing cross-protection against HPV-31/33/45 may prevent 89% of new HPV-related ADC cases (50,769 cases annually). It is predicted that the currently available HPV vaccines will be highly effective in preventing HPV-related cervical

  15. Muon g-2 Estimates. Can One Trust Effective Lagrangians and Global Fits?

    Benayoun, M.; DelBuono, L. [Paris VI et Paris VII Univ. (France). LPNHE; David, P. [Paris VI et Paris VII Univ. (France). LPNHE; Paris-Diderot Univ./CNRS UMR 8236 (France). LIED; Jegerlehner, F. [Humboldt-Universitaet, Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik; Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    Previous studies have shown that the Hidden Local Symmetry (HLS) Model, supplied with appropriate symmetry breaking mechanisms, provides an Effective Lagrangian (BHLS) which encompasses a large number of processes within a unified framework; a global fit procedure allows for a simultaneous description of the e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation into the 6 final states - π{sup +}π{sup -}, π{sup 0}γ, ηγ, π{sup +}π{sup -}π{sup 0}, K{sup +}K{sup -}, K{sub L}K{sub S} - and includes the dipion spectrum in the τ decay and some more light meson decay partial widths. The contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment a{sup th}{sub μ} of these annihilation channels over the range of validity of the HLS model (up to 1.05 GeV) is found much improved compared to its partner derived from integrating the measured spectra directly. However, most spectra for the process e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} undergo overall scale uncertainties which dominate the other sources, and one may suspect some bias in the dipion contribution to a{sup th}{sub μ}. However, an iterated fit algorithm, shown to lead to unbiased results by a Monte Carlo study, is defined and applied succesfully to the e{sup +}e{sup -} → π{sup +}π{sup -} data samples from CMD2, SND, KLOE (including the latest sample) and BaBar. The iterated fit solution is shown to be further improved and leads to a value for a{sub μ} different from aexp above the 4σ level. The contribution of the π{sup +}π{sup -} intermediate state up to 1.05 GeV to a{sub μ} derived from the iterated fit benefits from an uncertainty about 3 times smaller than the corresponding usual estimate. Therefore, global fit techniques are shown to work and lead to improved unbiased results. The main issue raised in this study and the kind of solution proposed may be of concern for other data driven methods when the data samples are dominated by global normalization uncertainties.

  16. Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions.

    K Ryan Wessells

    Full Text Available The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population's theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1 evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2 generate a model considered to provide the best estimates.National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation. Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12-66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57-0.99, P<0.01. A "best-estimate" model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%.Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country

  17. Evaluation of Various Methods for Estimating Global Solar Radiation in the Southeastern United States

    Woli, Prem; Paz, Joel O.

    2012-05-01

    Global solar radiation Rg is an important input for crop models to simulate crop responses. Because the scarcity of long and continuous records of Rg is a serious limitation in many countries, Rg is estimated using models. For crop-model application, empirical Rg models that use commonly measured meteorological variables, such as temperature and precipitation, are generally preferred. Although a large number of models of this kind exist, few have been evaluated for conditions in the United States. This study evaluated the performances of 16 empirical, temperature- and/or precipitation-based Rg models for the southeastern United States. By taking into account spatial distribution and data availability, 30 locations in the region were selected and their daily weather data spanning eight years obtained. One-half of the data was used for calibrating the models, and the other half was used for evaluation. For each model, location-specific parameter values were estimated through regressions. Models were evaluated for each location using the root-mean-square error and the modeling efficiency as goodness-of-fit measures. Among the models that use temperature or precipitation as the input variable, the Mavromatis model showed the best performance. The piecewise linear regression based Wu et al. model (WP) performed best not only among the models that use both temperature and precipitation but also among the 16 models evaluated, mainly because it has separate relationships for low and high radiation levels. The modeling efficiency of WP was from ~5% to more than 100% greater than those of the other models, depending on models and locations.

  18. 'TEWI' concept for estimation of the global warming from the refrigerating and air conditioning systems

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2002-01-01

    The most applied CFC refrigerants and their HFC alternatives. values of ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) of the most used refrigerants. natural working fluids and their properties. Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol, illogical relations between them concerning to the HFC fluids. Confusion and polemics on the international level about the appliance of HFCs which, by the Kyoto Protocol, are liable to reduction. Introduction of the TEWI concept as a method for estimating the overall influence of refrigerating and air conditioning systems on the greenhouse effect: the direct emission (refrigerant leakage in the atmosphere) and indirect emission as a result of the electrical energy consumption. A demonstration of the TEWI concept on the concrete example in several variants. A discussion about the appliance of the TEWI concept. Meaning of the energy efficiency of the refrigerating systems (indirect CO 2 emission). One of the main measures: prevention of refrigerant leakage (direct CO 2 emission). A need of permanent education and training courses of the people who work on refrigerating and air conditioning systems. A necessity for constitution of an expert body in the country, preparation of a strategy to lay obligations on the new changes of the Kyoto Protocol and news on the world market. Introduction of country regulations, certification of the companies and people involved in refrigeration and air conditioning. (Author)

  19. Large divergence of satellite and Earth system model estimates of global terrestrial CO2 fertilization

    Smith, W. Kolby; Reed, Sasha C.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Anderegg, William R. L.; Wieder, William R.; Liu, Yi Y; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric mass balance analyses suggest that terrestrial carbon (C) storage is increasing, partially abating the atmospheric [CO2] growth rate, although the continued strength of this important ecosystem service remains uncertain. Some evidence suggests that these increases will persist owing to positive responses of vegetation growth (net primary productivity; NPP) to rising atmospheric [CO2] (that is, ‘CO2 fertilization’). Here, we present a new satellite-derived global terrestrial NPP data set, which shows a significant increase in NPP from 1982 to 2011. However, comparison against Earth system model (ESM) NPP estimates reveals a significant divergence, with satellite-derived increases (2.8 ± 1.50%) less than half of ESM-derived increases (7.6  ±  1.67%) over the 30-year period. By isolating the CO2 fertilization effect in each NPP time series and comparing it against a synthesis of available free-air CO2 enrichment data, we provide evidence that much of the discrepancy may be due to an over-sensitivity of ESMs to atmospheric [CO2], potentially reflecting an under-representation of climatic feedbacks and/or a lack of representation of nutrient constraints. Our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects on NPP needs rapid improvement to enable more accurate projections of future C cycle–climate feedbacks; we contend that better integration of modelling, satellite and experimental approaches offers a promising way forward.

  20. Walk on the wild side: estimating the global magnitude of visits to protected areas.

    Andrew Balmford

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available How often do people visit the world's protected areas (PAs? Despite PAs covering one-eighth of the land and being a major focus of nature-based recreation and tourism, we don't know. To address this, we compiled a globally-representative database of visits to PAs and built region-specific models predicting visit rates from PA size, local population size, remoteness, natural attractiveness, and national income. Applying these models to all but the very smallest of the world's terrestrial PAs suggests that together they receive roughly 8 billion (8 x 109 visits/y-of which more than 80% are in Europe and North America. Linking our region-specific visit estimates to valuation studies indicates that these visits generate approximately US $600 billion/y in direct in-country expenditure and US $250 billion/y in consumer surplus. These figures dwarf current, typically inadequate spending on conserving PAs. Thus, even without considering the many other ecosystem services that PAs provide to people, our findings underscore calls for greatly increased investment in their conservation.

  1. Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first

  2. Globalization

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  3. Estimation of global soil respiration by accounting for land-use changes derived from remote sensing data.

    Adachi, Minaco; Ito, Akihiko; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Takeuchi, Wataru

    2017-09-15

    Soil respiration is one of the largest carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. Estimating global soil respiration is difficult because of its high spatiotemporal variability and sensitivity to land-use change. Satellite monitoring provides useful data for estimating the global carbon budget, but few studies have estimated global soil respiration using satellite data. We provide preliminary insights into the estimation of global soil respiration in 2001 and 2009 using empirically derived soil temperature equations for 17 ecosystems obtained by field studies, as well as MODIS climate data and land-use maps at a 4-km resolution. The daytime surface temperature from winter to early summer based on the MODIS data tended to be higher than the field-observed soil temperatures in subarctic and temperate ecosystems. The estimated global soil respiration was 94.8 and 93.8 Pg C yr -1 in 2001 and 2009, respectively. However, the MODIS land-use maps had insufficient spatial resolution to evaluate the effect of land-use change on soil respiration. The spatial variation of soil respiration (Q 10 ) values was higher but its spatial variation was lower in high-latitude areas than in other areas. However, Q 10 in tropical areas was more variable and was not accurately estimated (the values were >7.5 or soil respiration in tropical ecosystems. To solve these problems, it will be necessary to validate our results using a combination of remote sensing data at higher spatial resolution and field observations for many different ecosystems, and it will be necessary to account for the effects of more soil factors in the predictive equations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Inter-comparison of different models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation for the Negev region of Israel

    Ianetz, Amiran; Lyubansky, Vera; Setter, Ilan; Kriheli, Boris; Evseev, Efim G.; Kudish, Avraham I.

    2007-01-01

    Solar global radiation is a function of solar altitude, site altitude, albedo, atmospheric transparency and cloudiness, whereas solar global radiation on a clear day is defined such that it is a function of all the abovementioned parameters except cloudiness. Consequently, analysis of the relative magnitudes of solar global radiation and solar global radiation on a clear day provides a platform for studying the influence of cloudiness on solar global radiation. The Iqbal filter for determining the day type has been utilized to calculate the monthly average clear day solar global radiation at three sites in the Negev region of Israel. An inter-comparison between four models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation at the three sites was made. The relative accuracy of the four models was determined by comparing the monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation to that determined using the Iqbal filter. The analysis was performed on databases consisting of measurements made during the time interval of January 1991 to December 2004. The monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation determined by the Berlynd model was found to give the best agreement with that determined using the Iqbal filter. The Berlynd model was then utilized to calculate a daily clear day index, K c , which is defined as the ratio of the daily solar global radiation to the daily clear day solar global radiation. It is suggested that this index be used as an indication of the degree of cloudiness. Linear regression analysis was performed on the individual monthly databases for each site to determine the correlation between the daily clear day index and the daily clearness index, K T

  5. Global thunderstorm activity estimation based on number of transients in ELF-band

    Ondraskova, Adriena; Sevcik, Sebastian

    2017-04-01

    Schumann resonances (SR) are resonant electromagnetic oscillations in extremely low frequency band (ELF, 3 Hz - 3 kHz), which arise in the Earth-ionosphere cavity due to lightning activity in planetary range. The time records in the ELF-band consist of background signals and ELF transients/Q-bursts superimposed on the background exceeding it by a factor of 5 - 10. The former are produced by the common worldwide thunderstorm activity (100 - 150 events per second), the latter origin from individual intense distant lightning discharges (100 - 120 powerful strokes per hour). A Q-burst is produced by a combination of direct and antipodal pulses and the decisive factor for its shape follows from the source-to-observer distance. Diurnal/seasonal variations of global thunderstorm activity can be deduced from spectral amplitudes of SR modes. Here we focus on diurnal/seasonal variations of the number of ELF-transients assuming that it is another way of lightning activity estimation. To search for transients, our own code was applied to the SR vertical electric component measured in October 2004 - October 2008 at the Astronomical and Geophysical Observatory of FMPI CU, Slovakia. Criteria for the identification of the burst are chosen on the basis of the transient amplitudes and their morphological features. Monthly mean daily variations in number of transients showed that African focus dominates at 14 - 16 h UT and it is more active in comparison with Asian source, which dominates at 5 - 8 h UT in dependence on winter or summer month. American source had surprisingly slight response. Meteorological observations in South America aiming to determine lightning hotspots on the Earth indicate that flash rate in this region is greatest during nocturnal 0 h - 3 h local standard time. This fact may be interpreted that Asian and South American sources contribute together in the same UT. Cumulative spectral amplitude of the first three SR modes compared with number of ELF-transients in

  6. Lagged life cycle structures for food products: Their role in global marketing, their determinants and some problems in their estimation

    Baadsgaard, Allan; Gede, Mads Peter; Grunert, Klaus G.

    cycles for different product categories may be lagged (type II lag) because changes in economic and other factors will result in demands for different products. Identifying lagged life cycle structures major importance in global marketing of food products. The problems in arriving at such estimates...

  7. Municipal solid waste conversion to transportation fuels: a life-cycle estimation of global warming potential and energy consumption

    Pressley, Phillip N.; Aziz, Tarek N.; DeCarolis, Joseph F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper utilizes life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate the conversion of U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) to liquid transportation fuels via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). The model estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) associated...

  8. Estimate of the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model: a sensitivity analysis

    Guerrieri, A.

    2009-01-01

    In this report the largest Lyapunov characteristic exponent of a high dimensional atmospheric global circulation model of intermediate complexity has been estimated numerically. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out by varying the equator-to-pole temperature difference, the space resolution and the value of some parameters employed by the model. Chaotic and non-chaotic regimes of circulation have been found. [it

  9. How Choice of Depth Horizon Influences the Estimated Spatial Patterns and Global Magnitude of Ocean Carbon Export Flux

    Palevsky, Hilary I.; Doney, Scott C.

    2018-05-01

    Estimated rates and efficiency of ocean carbon export flux are sensitive to differences in the depth horizons used to define export, which often vary across methodological approaches. We evaluate sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) flux rates and efficiency (e-ratios) in a global earth system model, using a range of commonly used depth horizons: the seasonal mixed layer depth, the particle compensation depth, the base of the euphotic zone, a fixed depth horizon of 100 m, and the maximum annual mixed layer depth. Within this single dynamically consistent model framework, global POC flux rates vary by 30% and global e-ratios by 21% across different depth horizon choices. Zonal variability in POC flux and e-ratio also depends on the export depth horizon due to pronounced influence of deep winter mixing in subpolar regions. Efforts to reconcile conflicting estimates of export need to account for these systematic discrepancies created by differing depth horizon choices.

  10. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW Hamilton cohort.

    Guowei Li

    Full Text Available To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years.Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985, we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1 investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20% of the FI and PF; (2 trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail which were defined by the PF; (3 categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures.The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56 in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68 and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79, and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69 respectively.The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  11. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and phenotypic model to predict risk of falls: data from the global longitudinal study of osteoporosis in women (GLOW) Hamilton cohort.

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Ioannidis, George; Kennedy, Courtney; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2015-01-01

    To compare the predictive accuracy of the frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation and the phenotypic frailty (PF) model in predicting risks of future falls, fractures and death in women aged ≥55 years. Based on the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort (n = 3,985), we compared the predictive accuracy of the FI and PF in risks of falls, fractures and death using three strategies: (1) investigated the relationship with adverse health outcomes by increasing per one-fifth (i.e., 20%) of the FI and PF; (2) trichotomized the FI based on the overlap in the density distribution of the FI by the three groups (robust, pre-frail and frail) which were defined by the PF; (3) categorized the women according to a predicted probability function of falls during the third year of follow-up predicted by the FI. Logistic regression models were used for falls and death, while survival analyses were conducted for fractures. The FI and PF agreed with each other at a good level of consensus (correlation coefficients ≥ 0.56) in all the three strategies. Both the FI and PF approaches predicted adverse health outcomes significantly. The FI quantified the risks of future falls, fractures and death more precisely than the PF. Both the FI and PF discriminated risks of adverse outcomes in multivariable models with acceptable and comparable area under the curve (AUCs) for falls (AUCs ≥ 0.68) and death (AUCs ≥ 0.79), and c-indices for fractures (c-indices ≥ 0.69) respectively. The FI is comparable with the PF in predicting risks of adverse health outcomes. These findings may indicate the flexibility in the choice of frailty model for the elderly in the population-based settings.

  12. [Regional and global estimates of carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity in forest ecosystems: A review].

    Liu, Wei-wei; Wang, Xiao-ke; Lu, Fei; Ouyang, Zhi-yun

    2015-09-01

    As a dominant part of terrestrial ecosystems, forest ecosystem plays an important role in absorbing atmospheric CO2 and global climate change mitigation. From the aspects of zonal climate and geographical distribution, the present carbon stocks and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem were comprehensively examined based on the review of the latest literatures. The influences of land use change on forest carbon sequestration were analyzed, and factors that leading to the uncertainty of carbon sequestration assessment in forest ecosystem were also discussed. It was estimated that the current forest carbon stock was in the range of 652 to 927 Pg C and the carbon sequestration capacity was approximately 4.02 Pg C · a(-1). In terms of zonal climate, the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of tropical forest were the maximum, about 471 Pg C and 1.02-1.3 Pg C · a(-1) respectively; then the carbon stock of boreal forest was about 272 Pg C, while its carbon sequestration capacity was the minimum, approximately 0.5 Pg C · a(-1); for temperate forest, the carbon stock was minimal, around 113 to 159 Pg C and its carbon sequestration capacity was 0.8 Pg C · a(-1). From the aspect of geographical distribution, the carbon stock of forest ecosystem in South America was the largest (187.7-290 Pg C), then followed by European (162.6 Pg C), North America (106.7 Pg C), Africa (98.2 Pg C) and Asia (74.5 Pg C), and Oceania (21.7 Pg C). In addition, carbon sequestration capacity of regional forest ecosystem was summed up as listed below: Tropical South America forest was the maximum (1276 Tg C · a(-1)), then were Tropical Africa (753 Tg C · a(-1)), North America (248 Tg C · a(-1)) and European (239 Tg C · a(-1)), and East Asia (98.8-136.5 Tg C · a(-1)) was minimum. To further reduce the uncertainty in the estimations of the carbon stock and carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystem, comprehensive application of long-term observation, inventories

  13. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    2017-05-13

    Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM 2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM 2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM 2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will

  14. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 31; Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

  15. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Martinez-Durban, M.; Zarzalejo, L.F.; Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Polo, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE).

  16. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  17. Dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity fluxes from coastal marine sediments: Model estimates for different shelf environments and sensitivity to global change

    Krumins, V.; Gehlen, M.; Arndt, S.; Van Cappellen, P.; Regnier, P.

    2013-01-01

    We present a one-dimensional reactive transport model to estimate benthic fluxes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity (AT) from coastal marine sediments. The model incorporates the transport processes of sediment accumulation, molecular diffusion, bioturbation and bioirrigation,

  18. Radiotherapy of tumors under respiratory motion. Estimation of the motional velocity field and dose accumulation based on 4D image data

    Werner, Rene

    2013-01-01

    Respiratory motion represents a major challenge in radiation therapy in general, and especially for the therapy of lung tumors. In recent years and due to the introduction of modern techniques to 'acquire temporally resolved computed tomography images (4D CT images), different approaches have been developed to explicitly account for breathing motion during treatment. An integral component of such approaches is the concept of motion field estimation, which aims at a mathematical description and the computation of the motion sequences represented by the patient's images. As part of a 4D dose calculation/dose accumulation, the resulting vector fields are applied for assessing and accounting for breathing-induced effects on the dose distribution to be delivered. The reliability of related 4D treatment planning concepts is therefore directly tailored to the precision of the underlying motion field estimation process. Taking this into account, the thesis aims at developing optimized methods for the estimation of motion fields using 4D CT images and applying the resulting methods for the analysis of breathing induced dosimetric effects in radiation therapy. The thesis is subdivided into three parts that thematically build upon each other. The first part of the thesis is about the implementation, evaluation and optimization of methods for motion field estimation with the goal of precisely assessing respiratory motion of anatomical and pathological structures represented in a patient's 4D er image sequence; this step is the basis of subsequent developments and analysis parts. Especially non-linear registration techniques prove to be well suited to this purpose. After being optimized for the particular problem at hand, it is shown as part of an extensive multi-criteria evaluation study and additionally taking into account publicly accessible evaluation platforms that such methods allow estimating motion fields with subvoxel accuracy - which means that the developed methods

  19. Estimating the daily global solar radiation spatial distribution from diurnal temperature ranges over the Tibetan Plateau in China

    Pan, Tao; Wu, Shaohong; Dai, Erfu; Liu, Yujie

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Bristow–Campbell model was calibrated and validated over the Tibetan Plateau. ► Develop a simple method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation and get gridded information. ► The daily global solar radiation spatial distribution over the Tibetan Plateau was estimated. - Abstract: Daily global solar radiation is fundamental to most ecological and biophysical processes because it plays a key role in the local and global energy budget. However, gridded information about the spatial distribution of solar radiation is limited. This study aims to parameterise the Bristow–Campbell model for the daily global solar radiation estimation in the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterise the daily global solar radiation. Observed daily solar radiation and diurnal temperature data from eleven stations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1971–2010 were used to calibrate and validate the Bristow–Campbell radiation model. The extra-terrestrial radiation and clear sky atmospheric transmittance were calculated on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results show that the Bristow–Campbell model performs well after adjusting the parameters, the average Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r), Nash–Sutcliffe equation (NSE), ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), and root mean-square error (RMSE) of 11 stations are 0.85, 2.81 MJ m −2 day −1 , 0.3 and 0.77 respectively. Gridded maximum and minimum average temperature data were obtained using Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and validated by the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) stations’ data. The spatial daily global solar radiation distribution pattern was estimated and analysed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell model) and meteorological interpolation model (PRISM). Based on the overall results, it can be concluded that a calibrated Bristow–Campbell performs well

  20. Assessing the transferability of support vector machine model for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature

    Chen, Ji-Long; Li, Guo-Sheng; Xiao, Bei-Bei; Wen, Zhao-Fei; Lv, Ming-Quan; Chen, Chun-Di; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Wu, Sheng-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Transferability of SVM in estimation of solar radiation is investigated. • Radiation at estimation site could be well estimated by SVM developed at source site. • A strategy for selecting a suitable source site is presented. • SVM accuracy is affected by distance and temperature difference between two sites. • RMSE of SVM shows logarithm or linearly relationship with altitude of source site. - Abstract: Exploring novel methods for estimation of global solar radiation from air temperature has been being a focus in many studies. This paper evaluates the transferability of support vector machines (SVM) for estimation of solar radiation in subtropical zone in China. Results suggest that solar radiation at one site (estimation site) could be well estimated by SVM model developed at another site (source site). The accuracy of estimation is affected by the distance and temperature difference between two sites, and altitude of source site. Higher correlations between RMSE of SVM and distance, and temperature differences are observed in northeastern region, increasing the reliability and confidence of SVM model developed at nearby stations. While lower correlations between RMSE and distance, and temperature differences are observed in southwest plateau region. When the altitude of estimation site is lower than 1200 m, RMSE show logarithm relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are lower than that of estimation site. Otherwise, RMSE show linearly relationship with altitude of source sites where the altitude are higher than 200 m but lower than that of the estimation site. This result suggests that solar radiation could be also estimated using SVM model developed at the site with similar but lower altitude. Based on these results, a strategy that takes into account the climatic conditions, topography, distance, and altitude for selecting a suitable source site is presented. The findings can guide and ease the appropriate choice of

  1. Cardiac MRI. Estimation of changes in normalized myocardial gadolinium accumulation over time after contrast injection in patients with acute myocarditis and healthy volunteers

    Breuckmann, F.; Buhr, C.; Maderwald, S.; Bruder, O.; Schlosser, T.; Nassenstein, K.; Erbel, R.; Barkhausen, J.

    2011-01-01

    An increased normalized gadolinium accumulation (NGA) in the myocardium during early washout has been used for the diagnosis of acute myocarditis (AM). Due to the fact that the pharmacokinetics of contrast agents are complex, time-related changes in NGA after contrast injection are likely. Because knowledge about time-related changes of NGA may improve the diagnostic accuracy of MR, our study aimed to estimate the time course of NGA after contrast injection in patients as well as in healthy volunteers. An ECG-triggered inversion recovery SSFP sequence with incrementally increasing inversion times was repetitively acquired over the 15 minutes after injection of 0.2 Gd-DTPA per kg body weight in a 4-chamber view in 15 patients with AM and 20 volunteers. The T 1relaxation times and the longitudinal relaxation rates (R1) of the myocardium and skeletal musculature were calculated for each point in time after contrast injection. The time course of NGA was estimated based on the linear relationship between R 1 and tissue Gd concentration. NGA decreased over time in the form of a negative power function in patients with AM and in healthy controls. NGA in AM tended to be higher than in controls (p > 0.05). NGA rapidly changes after contrast injection, which must be considered when measuring NGA. Although we observed a trend towards higher NGA values in patients with AM with a maximum difference one minute after contrast injection, NGA did not allow us to differentiate patients with AM from healthy volunteers, because the observed differences did not reach a level of significance. (orig.)

  2. Monitoring of PBDEs concentration in umbilical cord blood and breast milk from Korean population and estimating the effects of various parameters on accumulation in humans.

    Kim, Un-Jung; Lee, In-Seok; Kim, Hyung Sik; Oh, Jeong-Eun

    2011-10-01

    In this study, we investigated concentration, congener distribution pattern, and effects of potential environmental factors that affect PBDE accumulation. We also estimated correlation between PBDE concentration and health status or thyroid function by analyzing 90 cord blood and 21 breast milk samples obtained from Korean population. Seven from tri- to hepta-BDEs were analyzed by solid phase extraction-high-resolution gas chromatography/high-resolution mass spectrometry (SPE-HRGC/HRMS). The total concentration of 7 PBDEs in cord blood was 2.786-94.64 ng g(-1) lipid and that in breast milk was 1.076-8.664 ng g(-1) lipid. Tetra-BDE (#47) was the predominant type of PBDE and was present at concentrations of over 40% in both sample types. A weak correlation was observed between the concentration of BDE28 and 153 and thyroid hormone concentration only in the breast milk samples. In children, a weak negative correlation was observed between free thyroxine (FT4) concentration and BDE28 concentration (0.302, pmilk during pregnancy and dietary habits such as green tea drinking (0.541, p=0.025) and Trichiuridae intake (0.565, p=0.015). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  4. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

    Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Supit, Iwan; Wolf, Joost

    2016-01-01

    The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects,

  5. Accumulation by Conservation

    Büscher, Bram; Fletcher, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Following the financial crisis and its aftermath, it is clear that the inherent contradictions of capitalist accumulation have become even more intense and plunged the global economy into unprecedented turmoil and urgency. Governments, business leaders and other elite agents are frantically

  6. Accumulation by Conservation

    Büscher, Bram; Fletcher, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Following the financial crisis and its aftermath, it is clear that the inherent contradictions of capitalist accumulation have become even more intense and plunged the global economy into unprecedented turmoil and urgency. Governments, business leaders and other elite agents are frantically

  7. Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes?

    A. Arneth

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-to-model variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms

  8. Limitations of a Short Demographic Questionnaire for Bedside Estimation of Patients’ Global Cognitive Functioning in Epilepsy Patients

    Iris Gorny

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available ObjectivesThe German socio-demographic estimation scale was developed by Jahn et al. (1 to quickly predict premorbid global cognitive functioning in patients. So far, it has been validated in healthy adults and has shown a good correlation with the full and verbal IQ of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS in this group. However, there are no data regarding its use as a bedside test in epilepsy patients.MethodsForty native German speaking adult patients with refractory epilepsy were included. They completed a neuropsychological assessment, including a nine scale short form of the German version of the WAIS-III and the German socio-demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 during their presurgical diagnostic stay in our center. We calculated means, correlations, and the rate of concordance (range ±5 and ±7.5 IQ score points between these two measures for the whole group, and a subsample of 19 patients with a global cognitive functioning level within 1 SD of the mean (IQ score range 85–115 and who had completed their formal education before epilepsy onset.ResultsThe German demographic estimation scale by Jahn et al. (1 showed a significant mean overestimation of the global cognitive functioning level of eight points in the epilepsy patient sample compared with the short form WAIS-III score. The accuracy within a range of ±5 or ±7.5 IQ score points for each patient was similar to that of the healthy controls reported by Jahn et al. (1 in our subsample, but not in our whole sample.ConclusionOur results show that the socio-demographic scale by Jahn et al. (1 is not sufficiently reliable as an estimation tool of global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients. It can be used to estimate global cognitive functioning in a subset of patients with a normal global cognitive functioning level who have completed their formal education before epilepsy onset, but it does not reliably predict global cognitive functioning in epilepsy patients

  9. Estimation of daily global solar irradiation by coupling ground measurements of bright sunshine hours to satellite imagery

    Ener Rusen, Selmin; Hammer, Annette; Akinoglu, Bulent G.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, the current version of the satellite-based HELIOSAT method and ground-based linear Ångström–Prescott type relations are used in combination. The first approach is based on the use of a correlation between daily bright sunshine hours (s) and cloud index (n). In the second approach a new correlation is proposed between daily solar irradiation and daily data of s and n which is based on a physical parameterization. The performances of the proposed two combined models are tested against conventional methods. We test the use of obtained correlation coefficients for nearby locations. Our results show that the use of sunshine duration together with the cloud index is quite satisfactory in the estimation of daily horizontal global solar irradiation. We propose to use the new approaches to estimate daily global irradiation when the bright sunshine hours data is available for the location of interest, provided that some regression coefficients are determined using the data of a nearby station. In addition, if surface data for a close location does not exist then it is recommended to use satellite models like HELIOSAT or the new approaches instead the Ångström type models. - Highlights: • Satellite imagery together with surface measurements in solar radiation estimation. • The new coupled and conventional models (satellite and ground-based) are analyzed. • New models result in highly accurate estimation of daily global solar irradiation

  10. Deterministic global optimization algorithm based on outer approximation for the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems.

    Miró, Anton; Pozo, Carlos; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Egea, Jose A; Jiménez, Laureano

    2012-05-10

    The estimation of parameter values for mathematical models of biological systems is an optimization problem that is particularly challenging due to the nonlinearities involved. One major difficulty is the existence of multiple minima in which standard optimization methods may fall during the search. Deterministic global optimization methods overcome this limitation, ensuring convergence to the global optimum within a desired tolerance. Global optimization techniques are usually classified into stochastic and deterministic. The former typically lead to lower CPU times but offer no guarantee of convergence to the global minimum in a finite number of iterations. In contrast, deterministic methods provide solutions of a given quality (i.e., optimality gap), but tend to lead to large computational burdens. This work presents a deterministic outer approximation-based algorithm for the global optimization of dynamic problems arising in the parameter estimation of models of biological systems. Our approach, which offers a theoretical guarantee of convergence to global minimum, is based on reformulating the set of ordinary differential equations into an equivalent set of algebraic equations through the use of orthogonal collocation methods, giving rise to a nonconvex nonlinear programming (NLP) problem. This nonconvex NLP is decomposed into two hierarchical levels: a master mixed-integer linear programming problem (MILP) that provides a rigorous lower bound on the optimal solution, and a reduced-space slave NLP that yields an upper bound. The algorithm iterates between these two levels until a termination criterion is satisfied. The capabilities of our approach were tested in two benchmark problems, in which the performance of our algorithm was compared with that of the commercial global optimization package BARON. The proposed strategy produced near optimal solutions (i.e., within a desired tolerance) in a fraction of the CPU time required by BARON.

  11. Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

    Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta; Limwattananon, Supon; Kusreesakul, Khanitta; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

    2017-01-01

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health

  12. Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration estimation to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith methods in the study of global drylands

    Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Zheng, Ziyan; Duan, Yawen

    2017-12-01

    Drylands are among those regions most sensitive to climate and environmental changes and human-induced perturbations. The most widely accepted definition of the term dryland is a ratio, called the Surface Wetness Index (SWI), of annual precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET) being below 0.65. PET is commonly estimated using the Thornthwaite (PET Th) and Penman-Monteith equations (PET PM). The present study compared spatiotemporal characteristics of global drylands based on the SWI with PET Th and PET PM. Results showed vast differences between PET Th and PET PM; however, the SWI derived from the two kinds of PET showed broadly similar characteristics in the interdecadal variability of global and continental drylands, except in North America, with high correlation coefficients ranging from 0.58 to 0.89. It was found that, during 1901-2014, global hyper-arid and semi-arid regions expanded, arid and dry sub-humid regions contracted, and drylands underwent interdecadal fluctuation. This was because precipitation variations made major contributions, whereas PET changes contributed to a much lesser degree. However, distinct differences in the interdecadal variability of semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions were found. This indicated that the influence of PET changes was comparable to that of precipitation variations in the global dry-wet transition zone. Additionally, the contribution of PET changes to the variations in global and continental drylands gradually enhanced with global warming, and the Thornthwaite method was found to be increasingly less applicable under climate change.

  13. Globalization

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  14. Globalization

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  15. Models to estimate phytomass accumulation of hydroponic lettuce Modelos para estimar o acúmulo de fitomassa de alface em hidroponia

    Sidinei José Lopes

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The protected and hydroponics cultivation are increasing in Brazil, demanding a better knowledge of crop performance in this environment. Plant dry matter accumulation as a function of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity and other weather parameters in greenhouse is different when compared with field cultivation. With the purpose of proposing models to characterize the temporal variation of leaf and total dry matter production of hydroponics-grown lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. and to determine the flowering period and the maximum dry matter accumulation rate as a function of plant relative development (relative degree-days, solar radiation and effective thermal index, two experiments (Spring and Autumn were carried out in the greenhouse, at Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Growth and development models are useful in obtaining basic information on the plant ´ environment interactions, maximizing the use of resources in greenhouse, as well as, to define the best form of crop management. The cultivar Vera was chosen as function of its earliness. Models were proposed to estimate the temporal variation of dry matter accumulation, where the best results for relative development were obtained using effective degree-days, characterizing the importance of the air temperature for the vegetative phase and the solar radiation for the reproductive. The yield and quality of the lettuce seeds evidenced a high potential of hydroponics technique.O cultivo protegido e o cultivo hidropônico de plantas estão sendo cada vez mais utilizados no Brasil, exigindo maior conhecimento sobre as respostas das plantas nesses ambientes. O acúmulo de massa seca de plantas em cultivo protegido é função da radiação solar, temperatura, umidade e outros elementos climáticos, e é diferente quando comparado com o cultivo a campo. Com o objetivo de propor modelos para caracterizar a variação temporal na massa seca de folhas e total da cultura de

  16. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The set of commercially available chemical substances in commerce that may have significant global warming potential (GWP) is not well defined. Although there are...

  17. Optimal estimation of the surface fluxes of methyl chloride using a 3-D global chemical transport model

    X. Xiao

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Methyl chloride (CH3Cl is a chlorine-containing trace gas in the atmosphere contributing significantly to stratospheric ozone depletion. Large uncertainties in estimates of its source and sink magnitudes and temporal and spatial variations currently exist. GEIA inventories and other bottom-up emission estimates are used to construct a priori maps of the surface fluxes of CH3Cl. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH, driven by NCEP interannually varying meteorological data, is then used to simulate CH3Cl mole fractions and quantify the time series of sensitivities of the mole fractions at each measurement site to the surface fluxes of various regional and global sources and sinks. We then implement the Kalman filter (with the unit pulse response method to estimate the surface fluxes on regional/global scales with monthly resolution from January 2000 to December 2004. High frequency observations from the AGAGE, SOGE, NIES, and NOAA/ESRL HATS in situ networks and low frequency observations from the NOAA/ESRL HATS flask network are used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes. The inversion results indicate global total emissions around 4100 ± 470 Gg yr−1 with very large emissions of 2200 ± 390 Gg yr−1 from tropical plants, which turn out to be the largest single source in the CH3Cl budget. Relative to their a priori annual estimates, the inversion increases global annual fungal and tropical emissions, and reduces the global oceanic source. The inversion implies greater seasonal and interannual oscillations of the natural sources and sink of CH3Cl compared to the a priori. The inversion also reflects the strong effects of the 2002/2003 globally widespread heat waves and droughts on global emissions from tropical plants, biomass burning and salt marshes, and on the soil sink.

  18. Global evapotranspiration over the past three decades: estimation based on the water balance equation combined with empirical models

    Zeng Zhenzhong; Piao Shilong; Yin Guodong; Peng Shushi; Lin Xin; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B

    2012-01-01

    We applied a land water mass balance equation over 59 major river basins during 2003–9 to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), using as input terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from the GRACE satellites, precipitation and in situ runoff measurements. We found that the terrestrial water storage change cannot be neglected in the estimation of ET on an annual time step, especially in areas with relatively low ET values. We developed a spatial regression model of ET by integrating precipitation, temperature and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and used this model to extrapolate the spatio-temporal patterns of changes in ET from 1982 to 2009. We found that the globally averaged land ET is about 604 mm yr −1 with a range of 558–650 mm yr −1 . From 1982 to 2009, global land ET was found to increase at a rate of 1.10 mm yr −2 , with the Amazon regions and Southeast Asia showing the highest ET increasing trend. Further analyses, however, show that the increase in global land ET mainly occurred between the 1980s and the 1990s. The trend over the 2000s, its magnitude or even the sign of change substantially depended on the choice of the beginning year. This suggests a non-significant trend in global land ET over the last decade. (letter)

  19. Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever: Systematic review to estimate global morbidity and mortality for 2010

    Geoffrey C. Buckle

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Typhoid and paratyphoid fever remain important causes of morbidity worldwide. Accurate disease burden estimates are needed to guide policy decisions and prevention and control strategies.

  20. Effects of foliage clumping on the estimation of global terrestrial gross primary productivity

    Chen, Jing M.; Mo, Gang; Pisek, Jan; Liu, Jane; Deng, Feng; Ishizawa, Misa; Chan, Douglas

    2012-03-01

    Sunlit and shaded leaf separation proposed by Norman (1982) is an effective way to upscale from leaf to canopy in modeling vegetation photosynthesis. The Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) makes use of this methodology, and has been shown to be reliable in modeling the gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from CO2flux and tree ring measurements. In this study, we use BEPS to investigate the effect of canopy architecture on the global distribution of GPP. For this purpose, we use not only leaf area index (LAI) but also the first ever global map of the foliage clumping index derived from the multiangle satellite sensor POLDER at 6 km resolution. The clumping index, which characterizes the degree of the deviation of 3-dimensional leaf spatial distributions from the random case, is used to separate sunlit and shaded LAI values for a given LAI. Our model results show that global GPP in 2003 was 132 ± 22 Pg C. Relative to this baseline case, our results also show: (1) global GPP is overestimated by 12% when accurate LAI is available but clumping is ignored, and (2) global GPP is underestimated by 9% when the effective LAI is available and clumping is ignored. The clumping effects in both cases are statistically significant (p < 0.001). The effective LAI is often derived from remote sensing by inverting the measured canopy gap fraction to LAI without considering the clumping. Global GPP would therefore be generally underestimated when remotely sensed LAI (actually effective LAI by our definition) is used. This is due to the underestimation of the shaded LAI and therefore the contribution of shaded leaves to GPP. We found that shaded leaves contribute 50%, 38%, 37%, 39%, 26%, 29% and 21% to the total GPP for broadleaf evergreen forest, broadleaf deciduous forest, evergreen conifer forest, deciduous conifer forest, shrub, C4 vegetation, and other vegetation, respectively. The global average of this ratio is 35%.

  1. Estimating the global burden of thalassogenic diseases: human infectious diseases caused by wastewater pollution of the marine environment.

    Shuval, Hillel

    2003-06-01

    This paper presents a preliminary attempt at obtaining an order-of-magnitude estimate of the global burden of disease (GBD) of human infectious diseases associated with swimming/bathing in coastal waters polluted by wastewater, and eating raw or lightly steamed filter-feeding shellfish harvested from such waters. Such diseases will be termed thalassogenic--caused by the sea. Until recently these human health effects have been viewed primarily as local phenomena, not generally included in the world agenda of marine scientists dealing with global marine pollution problems. The massive global scale of the problem can be visualized when one considers that the wastewater and human body wastes of a significant portion of the world's population who reside along the coastline or in the vicinity of the sea are discharged daily, directly or indirectly, into the marine coastal waters, much of it with little or no treatment. Every cubic metre of raw domestic wastewater discharged into the sea can carry millions of infectious doses of pathogenic microorganisms. It is estimated that globally, foreign and local tourists together spend some 2 billion man-days annually at coastal recreational resorts and many are often exposed there to coastal waters polluted by wastewater. Annually some 800 million meals of potentially contaminated filter-feeding shellfish/bivalves and other sea foods, harvested in polluted waters are consumed, much of it raw or lightly steamed. A number of scientific studies have shown that swimmers swallow significant amounts of polluted seawater and can become ill with gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases from the pathogens they ingest. Based on risk assessments from the World Health Organization (WHO) and academic research sources the present study has made an estimate that globally, each year, there are in excess of 120 million cases of gastrointestinal disease and in excess of 50 million cases of more severe respiratory diseases caused by swimming and

  2. Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

    Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

    2015-09-01

    Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  3. Estimation of daily global solar radiation as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface

    Pereira, A.B.; Vrisman, A.L.; Galvani, E.

    2002-01-01

    The solar radiation received at the surface of the earth, apart from its relevance to several daily human activities, plays an important role in the growth and development of plants. The aim of the current work was to develop and gauge an estimation model for the evaluation of the global solar radiation flux density as a function of the solar energy potential at soil surface. Radiometric data were collected at Ponta Grossa, PR, Brazil (latitude 25°13' S, longitude 50°03' W, altitude 880 m). Estimated values of solar energy potential obtained as a function of only one measurement taken at solar noon time were confronted with those measured by a Robitzsch bimetalic actinograph, for days that presented insolation ratios higher than 0.85. This data set was submitted to a simple linear regression analysis, having been obtained a good adjustment between observed and calculated values. For the estimation of the coefficients a and b of Angström's equation, the method based on the solar energy potential at soil surface was used for the site under study. The methodology was efficient to assess the coefficients, aiming at the determination of the global solar radiation flux density, whith quickness and simplicity, having also found out that the criterium for the estimation of the solar energy potential is equivalent to that of the classical methodology of Angström. Knowledge of the available solar energy potential and global solar radiation flux density is of great importance for the estimation of the maximum atmospheric evaporative demand, of water consumption by irrigated crops, and also for building solar engineering equipment, such as driers, heaters, solar ovens, refrigerators, etc [pt

  4. Experimental Verification of a Global Exponentially Stable Nonlinear Wave Encounter Frequency Estimator

    Belleter, Dennis J.W.; Galeazzi, Roberto; Fossen, Thor Inge

    2015-01-01

    towing tank experiments using a container ship scale model. The estimates for both regular and irregular waves confirm the results. Finally, the estimator is applied to full-scale data gathered from a container ship operating in the Atlantic Ocean during a storm. Again the theoretical results...

  5. Relating Local to Global Spatial Knowledge: Heuristic Influence of Local Features on Direction Estimates

    Phillips, Daniel W.; Montello, Daniel R.

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has examined heuristics--simplified decision-making rules-of-thumb--for geospatial reasoning. This study examined at two locations the influence of beliefs about local coastline orientation on estimated directions to local and distant places; estimates were made immediately or after fifteen seconds. This study goes beyond…

  6. The nexus between energy consumption and financial development: estimating the role of globalization in Next-11 countries.

    Danish; Saud, Shah; Baloch, Muhammad Awais; Lodhi, Rab Nawaz

    2018-04-28

    In the modern era of globalization, the economic activities expand with the passage of time. This expansion may increase demand for energy both in developing and developed countries. Therefore, this study assesses the impact of financial development on energy consumption incorporating the role of globalization in Next-11 countries. A group of panel estimation techniques is used to analyze the panel data and time series data for the time 1990-2014. The empirical results of the study suggest that financial development stimulates energy consumption. Also, globalization increases demand for energy consumption, although the single country analysis suggests that the effect of globalization on energy demand is heterogeneous among N-11 countries. Furthermore, feedback hypothesis is confirmed between financial development and energy consumption. Also, bidirectional causality is found between economic growth and energy consumption. The findings urge for the attention of policymaker in emerging countries to develop a strategy to reduce the consequences of energy consumption by controlling resource transfer through globalization to the host country and by adopting energy conversation policies.

  7. A high resolution global wind atlas - improving estimation of world wind resources

    Badger, Jake; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2011-01-01

    to population centres, electrical transmission grids, terrain types, and protected land areas are important parts of the resource assessment downstream of the generation of wind climate statistics. Related to these issues of integration are the temporal characteristics and spatial correlation of the wind...... resources. These aspects will also be addressed by the Global Wind Atlas. The Global Wind Atlas, through a transparent methodology, will provide a unified, high resolution, and public domain dataset of wind energy resources for the whole world. The wind atlas data will be the most appropriate wind resource...

  8. ModFOLD6: an accurate web server for the global and local quality estimation of 3D protein models.

    Maghrabi, Ali H A; McGuffin, Liam J

    2017-07-03

    Methods that reliably estimate the likely similarity between the predicted and native structures of proteins have become essential for driving the acceptance and adoption of three-dimensional protein models by life scientists. ModFOLD6 is the latest version of our leading resource for Estimates of Model Accuracy (EMA), which uses a pioneering hybrid quasi-single model approach. The ModFOLD6 server integrates scores from three pure-single model methods and three quasi-single model methods using a neural network to estimate local quality scores. Additionally, the server provides three options for producing global score estimates, depending on the requirements of the user: (i) ModFOLD6_rank, which is optimized for ranking/selection, (ii) ModFOLD6_cor, which is optimized for correlations of predicted and observed scores and (iii) ModFOLD6 global for balanced performance. The ModFOLD6 methods rank among the top few for EMA, according to independent blind testing by the CASP12 assessors. The ModFOLD6 server is also continuously automatically evaluated as part of the CAMEO project, where significant performance gains have been observed compared to our previous server and other publicly available servers. The ModFOLD6 server is freely available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  9. Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

    Hanf, Matthieu; Van-Melle, Astrid; Fraisse, Florence; Roger, Amaury; Carme, Bernard; Nacher, Mathieu

    2011-01-01

    Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI) and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2)= 0.89) included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.valueCorruption Perception Index (p.valuecorruption) was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

  10. World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010

    Havelaar, Arie H|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/072306122; Kirk, Martyn D; Torgerson, Paul R; Gibb, Herman J; Hald, Tine; Lake, Robin J; Praet, Nicolas; Bellinger, David C; de Silva, Nilanthi R; Gargouri, Neyla; Speybroeck, Niko; Cawthorne, Amy; Mathers, Colin; Stein, Claudia; Angulo, Frederick J; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

    2015-01-01

    Illness and death from diseases caused by contaminated food are a constant threat to public health and a significant impediment to socio-economic development worldwide. To measure the global and regional burden of foodborne disease (FBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) established the Foodborne

  11. Estimating global copper demand until 2100 with regression and stock dynamics

    Schipper, Branco W.; Lin, Hsiu Chuan; Meloni, Marco A.; Wansleeben, Kjell; Heijungs, Reinout; van der Voet, Ester

    2018-01-01

    Future global copper demand is expected to keep rising due to copper's indispensable role in modern technologies. Unfortunately, increasing copper extraction and decreasing ore grades intensify energy use and generate higher environmental impact. A potential solution would be reaching a circular

  12. Beyond peak reservoir storage? A global estimate of declining water storage capacity in large reservoirs

    Wisser, D.; Frolking, S.; Hagen, Stephen; Bierkens, M.F.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/125022794

    2013-01-01

    Water storage is an important way to cope with temporal variation in water supply anddemand. The storage capacity and the lifetime of water storage reservoirs can besignificantly reduced by the inflow of sediments. A global, spatially explicit assessment ofreservoir storage loss in conjunction with

  13. A Global-Scale Estimate of Ecosystem Services from Urban Agriculture: Understanding Incentives for Natural Capital in Cities

    Clinton, N.; Stuhlmacher, M.; Miles, A.; Uludere, N.; Wagner, M.; Georgescu, M.; Herwig, C.; Gong, P.

    2017-12-01

    Despite substantial interest in urban agriculture, little is known about the aggregate benefits conferred by natural capital for growing food in cities. Here we perform a scenario-based analysis to quantify ecosystem services from adoption of urban agriculture at varying intensity. To drive the scenarios, we created global-scale estimates of vacant land, rooftop and building surface area, at one kilometer resolution, from remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data. We used national scale agricultural reports, climate and other geospatial data at global scale to estimate agricultural production and economic returns, storm-water avoidance, energy savings from avoided heating and cooling costs, and ecosystem services provided by nitrogen sequestration, pollination and biocontrol of pests. The results indicate that vacant lands, followed by rooftops, represent the largest opportunities for natural capital put to agricultural use in urban areas. Ecosystem services from putting such spaces to productive use are dominated by agricultural returns, but energy savings conferred by insulative characteristics of growth substrate also provide economic incentives. Storm water avoidance was estimated to be substantial, but no economic value was estimated. Relatively low economic returns were estimated from the other ecosystem services examined. In aggregate, approximately $10-100 billion in economic incentives, before costs, were estimated. The results showed that relatively developed, high-income countries stand the most to gain from urban agricultural adoption due to the unique combination of climate, crop mixture and crop prices. While the results indicate that urban agriculture is not a panacea for urban food security issues, there is potential to simultaneously ameliorate multiple issues around food, energy and water in urbanized areas.

  14. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

    2013-11-01

    Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  15. Estimating global, regional and national rotavirus deaths in children aged <5 years: Current approaches, new analyses and proposed improvements.

    Andrew Clark

    Full Text Available Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in children but there is considerable disagreement about how many deaths occur each year.We compared CHERG, GBD and WHO/CDC estimates of age under 5 years (U5 rotavirus deaths at the global, regional and national level using a standard year (2013 and standard list of 186 countries. The global estimates were 157,398 (CHERG, 122,322 (GBD and 215,757 (WHO/CDC. The three groups used different methods: (i to select data points for rotavirus-positive proportions; (ii to extrapolate data points to individual countries; (iii to account for rotavirus vaccine coverage; (iv to convert rotavirus-positive proportions to rotavirus attributable fractions; and (v to calculate uncertainty ranges. We conducted new analyses to inform future estimates. We found that acute watery diarrhoea was associated with 87% (95% CI 83-90% of U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations based on data from 84 hospital sites in 9 countries, and 65% (95% CI 57-74% of U5 diarrhoea deaths based on verbal autopsy reports from 9 country sites. We reanalysed data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS and found 44% (55% in Asia, and 32% in Africa rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea hospitalisations, and 28% rotavirus-positivity among U5 acute watery diarrhoea deaths. 97% (95% CI 95-98% of the U5 diarrhoea hospitalisations that tested positive for rotavirus were entirely attributable to rotavirus. For all clinical syndromes combined the rotavirus attributable fraction was 34% (95% CI 31-36%. This increased by a factor of 1.08 (95% CI 1.02-1.14 when the GEMS results were reanalysed using a more sensitive molecular test.We developed consensus on seven proposals for improving the quality and transparency of future rotavirus mortality estimates.

  16. Corruption kills: estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths.

    Matthieu Hanf

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Information on the global risk factors of children mortality is crucial to guide global efforts to improve survival. Corruption has been previously shown to significantly impact on child mortality. However no recent quantification of its current impact is available. METHODS: The impact of corruption was assessed through crude Pearson's correlation, univariate and multivariate linear models coupling national under-five mortality rates in 2008 to the national "perceived level of corruption" (CPI and a large set of adjustment variables measured during the same period. FINDINGS: The final multivariable model (adjusted R(2= 0.89 included the following significant variables: percentage of people with improved sanitation (p.value<0.001, logarithm of total health expenditure (p.value = 0.006, Corruption Perception Index (p.value<0.001, presence of an arid climate on the national territory (p = 0.006, and the dependency ratio (p.value<0.001. A decrease in CPI of one point (i.e. a more important perceived corruption was associated with an increase in the log of national under-five mortality rate of 0.0644. According to this result, it could be roughly hypothesized that more than 140000 annual children deaths could be indirectly attributed to corruption. INTERPRETATIONS: Global response to children mortality must involve a necessary increase in funds available to develop water and sanitation access and purchase new methods for prevention, management, and treatment of major diseases drawing the global pattern of children deaths. However without paying regard to the anti-corruption mechanisms needed to ensure their proper use, it will also provide further opportunity for corruption. Policies and interventions supported by governments and donors must integrate initiatives that recognise how they are inter-related.

  17. Sub-grid scale representation of vegetation in global land surface schemes: implications for estimation of the terrestrial carbon sink

    J. R. Melton

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystem models commonly represent vegetation in terms of plant functional types (PFTs and use their vegetation attributes in calculations of the energy and water balance as well as to investigate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sub-grid scale variability of PFTs in these models is represented using different approaches with the "composite" and "mosaic" approaches being the two end-members. The impact of these two approaches on the global carbon balance has been investigated with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v 1.2 coupled to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS v 3.6. In the composite (single-tile approach, the vegetation attributes of different PFTs present in a grid cell are aggregated and used in calculations to determine the resulting physical environmental conditions (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc. that are common to all PFTs. In the mosaic (multi-tile approach, energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile and each tile's physical land surface environmental conditions evolve independently. Pre-industrial equilibrium CLASS-CTEM simulations yield global totals of vegetation biomass, net primary productivity, and soil carbon that compare reasonably well with observation-based estimates and differ by less than 5% between the mosaic and composite configurations. However, on a regional scale the two approaches can differ by > 30%, especially in areas with high heterogeneity in land cover. Simulations over the historical period (1959–2005 show different responses to evolving climate and carbon dioxide concentrations from the two approaches. The cumulative global terrestrial carbon sink estimated over the 1959–2005 period (excluding land use change (LUC effects differs by around 5% between the two approaches (96.3 and 101.3 Pg, for the mosaic and composite approaches, respectively and compares well with the observation-based estimate of 82.2 ± 35 Pg C over the same

  18. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  19. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

  20. Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming

    Cook, John; Oreskes, Naomi; Doran, Peter T.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Verheggen, Bart; Maibach, Ed W.; Carlton, J. Stuart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Skuce, Andrew G.; Green, Sarah A.; Nuccitelli, Dana; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Winkler, Bärbel; Painting, Rob; Rice, Ken

    2016-04-01

    The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming (‘no position’) represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

  1. Global Precipitation Measurement. Report 7; Bridging from TRMM to GPM to 3-Hourly Precipitation Estimates

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Smith, Eric A.; Adams, W. James (Editor)

    2002-01-01

    Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.

  2. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

    Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A

    2015-04-21

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

  3. Toward Quantitative Estimation of the Effect of Aerosol Particles in the Global Climate Model and Cloud Resolving Model

    Eskes, H.; Boersma, F.; Dirksen, R.; van der A, R.; Veefkind, P.; Levelt, P.; Brinksma, E.; van Roozendael, M.; de Smedt, I.; Gleason, J.

    2005-05-01

    Based on measurements of GOME on ESA ERS-2, SCIAMACHY on ESA-ENVISAT, and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the NASA EOS-Aura satellite there is now a unique 11-year dataset of global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide measurements from space. The retrieval approach consists of two steps. The first step is an application of the DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) approach which delivers the total absorption optical thickness along the light path (the slant column). For GOME and SCIAMACHY this is based on the DOAS implementation developed by BIRA/IASB. For OMI the DOAS implementation was developed in a collaboration between KNMI and NASA. The second retrieval step, developed at KNMI, estimates the tropospheric vertical column of NO2 based on the slant column, cloud fraction and cloud top height retrieval, stratospheric column estimates derived from a data assimilation approach and vertical profile estimates from space-time collocated profiles from the TM chemistry-transport model. The second step was applied with only minor modifications to all three instruments to generate a uniform 11-year data set. In our talk we will address the following topics: - A short summary of the retrieval approach and results - Comparisons with other retrievals - Comparisons with global and regional-scale models - OMI-SCIAMACHY and SCIAMACHY-GOME comparisons - Validation with independent measurements - Trend studies of NO2 for the past 11 years

  4. A comparison of methods to estimate daily global solar irradiation from other climatic variables on the Canadian prairies

    Barr, A.G.; McGinn, S.M.; Cheng, S.B.

    1996-01-01

    Historic estimates of daily global solar irradiation are often required for climatic impact studies. Regression equations with daily global solar irradiation, H, as the dependent variable and other climatic variables as the independent variables provide a practical way to estimate H at locations where it is not measured. They may also have potential to estimate H before 1953, the year of the first routine H measurements in Canada. This study compares several regression equations for calculating H on the Canadian prairies. Simple linear regression with daily bright sunshine duration as the dependent variable accounted for 90% of the variation of H in summer and 75% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with the daily air temperature range as the dependent variable accounted for 45% of the variation of H in summer and only 6% of the variation of H in winter. Linear regression with precipitation status (wet or dry) as the dependent variable accounted for only 35% of the summer-time variation in H, but stratifying other regression analyses into wet and dry days reduced their root-mean-squared errors. For periods with sufficiently dense bright sunshine observations (i.e. after 1960), however, H was more accurately estimated from spatially interpolated bright sunshine duration than from locally observed air temperature range or precipitation status. The daily air temperature range and precipitation status may have utility for estimating H for periods before 1953, when they are the only widely available climatic data on the Canadian prairies. Between 1953 and 1989, a period of large climatic variation, the regression coefficients did not vary significantly between contrasting years with cool-wet, intermediate and warm-dry summers. They should apply equally well earlier in the century. (author)

  5. A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.

    Putti, Fernando Ferrari; Filho, Luis Roberto Almeida Gabriel; Gabriel, Camila Pires Cremasco; Neto, Alfredo Bonini; Bonini, Carolina Dos Santos Batista; Rodrigues Dos Reis, André

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

    Shield, Kevin D; Rylett, Margaret; Gmel, Gerhard; Gmel, Gerrit; Kehoe-Chan, Tara A K; Rehm, Jürgen

    2013-05-01

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. A total of 241 countries and territories. Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Global Performance of a Fast Parameterization Scheme for Estimating Surface Solar Radiation from MODIS data

    Tang, W.; Yang, K.; Sun, Z.; Qin, J.; Niu, X.

    2016-12-01

    A fast parameterization scheme named SUNFLUX is used in this study to estimate instantaneous surface solar radiation (SSR) based on products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard both Terra and Aqua platforms. The scheme mainly takes into account the absorption and scattering processes due to clouds, aerosols and gas in the atmosphere. The estimated instantaneous SSR is evaluated against surface observations obtained from seven stations of the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), four stations in the North China Plain (NCP) and 40 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The statistical results for evaluation against these three datasets show that the relative root-mean-square error (RMSE) values of SUNFLUX are less than 15%, 16% and 17%, respectively. Daily SSR is derived through temporal upscaling from the MODIS-based instantaneous SSR estimates, and is validated against surface observations. The relative RMSE values for daily SSR estimates are about 16% at the seven SURFRAD stations, four NCP stations, 40 BSRN stations and 90 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) radiation stations.

  8. Campbell-Bristow development Model for Estimating Global Solar radiation in the Region of Junin, Perú

    Dr. Becquer Frauberth Camayo-Lapa

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to have a tool to estimate the monthly and annual solar radiation on the horizontal surface in Junín region, in which is not available with this information, adapted Bristow-Campbell (1984 model for estimating global solar radiation monthly average.   To develop the model of Bristow-Campbell that estimates the average daily global solar radiation monthly modeling technique proposed by Espinoza (2010, were recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures of 19 weather stations and the equations proposed  by the Solar High Peru 2003 was adapted to this model.  The Bristow-Campbell model was developed with data recorded in stations: Santa Ana, Tarma and Satipo belonging to Sierra and Selva, respectively. The performance of applications calculated solar radiation was determined by considering the OLADE (1992 that solar radiation over 4,0 kWh/m2/day are profitable and 5,0 kWh/m2/day very profitable. The results indicate that the monthly average global solar radiation in Junín  region is 5,3  kWh/m2/day corresponding to the  4,2 Forest and the Sierra 5,6 kWh/m2/day kWh/m2/day. Profitability is determined for the less profitable Selva and Sierra is very profitable. In addition, the operating model is simple and available to all users. We conclude that application of the Bristow-Campbell model adapted, it is an instrument of great utility to generate a comprehensive database of available solar radiation in Junín region.

  9. Respiration of new and old carbon in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of global oceanic gross primary productivity

    Carvalho, Matheus C.; Schulz, Kai G.; Eyre, Bradley D.

    2017-06-01

    New respiration (Rnew, of freshly fixated carbon) and old respiration (Rold, of storage carbon) were estimated for different regions of the global surface ocean using published data on simultaneous measurements of the following: (1) primary productivity using 14C (14PP); (2) gross primary productivity (GPP) based on 18O or O2; and (3) net community productivity (NCP) using O2. The ratio Rnew/GPP in 24 h incubations was typically between 0.1 and 0.3 regardless of depth and geographical area, demonstrating that values were almost constant regardless of large variations in temperature (0 to 27°C), irradiance (surface to 100 m deep), nutrients (nutrient-rich and nutrient-poor waters), and community composition (diatoms, flagellates, etc,). As such, between 10 and 30% of primary production in the surface ocean is respired in less than 24 h, and most respiration (between 55 and 75%) was of older carbon. Rnew was most likely associated with autotrophs, with minor contribution from heterotrophic bacteria. Patterns were less clear for Rold. Short 14C incubations are less affected by respiratory losses. Global oceanic GPP is estimated to be between 70 and 145 Gt C yr-1.Plain Language SummaryHere we present a comprehensive coverage of ocean new and old respiration. Our results show that nearly 20% of oceanic gross primary production is consumed in the first 24 h. However, most (about 60%) respiration is of older carbon fixed at least 24 h before its consumption. Rates of new respiration relative to gross primary production were remarkably constant for the entire ocean, which allowed a preliminary estimation of global primary productivity as between 70 and 145 gt C yr-1.

  10. Systematical estimation of GPM-based global satellite mapping of precipitation products over China

    Zhao, Haigen; Yang, Bogang; Yang, Shengtian; Huang, Yingchun; Dong, Guotao; Bai, Juan; Wang, Zhiwei

    2018-03-01

    As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory satellite continues its mission, new version 6 products for Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) have been released. However, few studies have systematically evaluated the GSMaP products over mainland China. This study quantitatively evaluated three GPM-based GSMaP version 6 precipitation products for China and eight subregions referring to the Chinese daily Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP). The GSMaP products included near-real-time (GSMaP_NRT), microwave-infrared reanalyzed (GSMaP_MVK), and gauge-adjusted (GSMaP_Gau) data. Additionally, the gauge-adjusted Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG_Gau) was also assessed and compared with GSMaP_Gau. The analyses of the selected daily products were carried out at spatiotemporal resolutions of 1/4° for the period of March 2014 to December 2015 in consideration of the resolution of CPAP and the consistency of the coverage periods of the satellite products. The results indicated that GSMaP_MVK and GSMaP_NRT performed comparably and underdetected light rainfall events (Pearson linear correlation coefficient (CC), fractional standard error (FSE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE) metrics during the summer. Compared with GSMaP_NRT and GSMaP_MVK, GSMaP_Gau possessed significantly improved metrics over mainland China and the eight subregions and performed better in terms of CC, RMSE, and FSE but underestimated precipitation to a greater degree than IMERG_Gau. As a quantitative assessment of the GPM-era GSMaP products, these validation results will supply helpful references for both end users and algorithm developers. However, the study findings need to be confirmed over a longer future study period when the longer-period IMERG retrospectively-processed data are available.

  11. Developing Methods for Fraction Cover Estimation Toward Global Mapping of Ecosystem Composition

    Roberts, D. A.; Thompson, D. R.; Dennison, P. E.; Green, R. O.; Kokaly, R. F.; Pavlick, R.; Schimel, D.; Stavros, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial vegetation seldom covers an entire pixel due to spatial mixing at many scales. Estimating the fractional contributions of photosynthetic green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and substrate (soil, rock, etc.) to mixed spectra can significantly improve quantitative remote measurement of terrestrial ecosystems. Traditional methods for estimating fractional vegetation cover rely on vegetation indices that are sensitive to variable substrate brightness, NPV and sun-sensor geometry. Spectral mixture analysis (SMA) is an alternate framework that provides estimates of fractional cover. However, simple SMA, in which the same set of endmembers is used for an entire image, fails to account for natural spectral variability within a cover class. Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) is a variant of SMA that allows the number and types of pure spectra to vary on a per-pixel basis, thereby accounting for endmember variability and generating more accurate cover estimates, but at a higher computational cost. Routine generation and delivery of GV, NPV, and substrate (S) fractions using MESMA is currently in development for large, diverse datasets acquired by the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). We present initial results, including our methodology for ensuring consistency and generalizability of fractional cover estimates across a wide range of regions, seasons, and biomes. We also assess uncertainty and provide a strategy for validation. GV, NPV, and S fractions are an important precursor for deriving consistent measurements of ecosystem parameters such as plant stress and mortality, functional trait assessment, disturbance susceptibility and recovery, and biomass and carbon stock assessment. Copyright 2016 California Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. We acknowledge support of the US Government, NASA, the Earth Science Division and Terrestrial Ecology program.

  12. Surgical Care Required for Populations Affected by Climate-related Natural Disasters: A Global Estimation.

    Lee, Eugenia E; Stewart, Barclay; Zha, Yuanting A; Groen, Thomas A; Burkle, Frederick M; Kushner, Adam L

    2016-08-10

    Climate extremes will increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide.  Climate-related natural disasters were anticipated to affect 375 million people in 2015, more than 50% greater than the yearly average in the previous decade. To inform surgical assistance preparedness, we estimated the number of surgical procedures needed.   The numbers of people affected by climate-related disasters from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Centre for Research of the Epidemiology of Disasters database. Using 5,000 procedures per 100,000 persons as the minimum, baseline estimates were calculated. A linear regression of the number of surgical procedures performed annually and the estimated number of surgical procedures required for climate-related natural disasters was performed. Approximately 140 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters annually requiring 7.0 million surgical procedures. The greatest need for surgical care was in the People's Republic of China, India, and the Philippines. Linear regression demonstrated a poor relationship between national surgical capacity and estimated need for surgical care resulting from natural disaster, but countries with the least surgical capacity will have the greatest need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. As climate extremes increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters, millions will need surgical care beyond baseline needs. Countries with insufficient surgical capacity will have the most need for surgical care for persons affected by climate-related natural disasters. Estimates of surgical are particularly important for countries least equipped to meet surgical care demands given critical human and physical resource deficiencies.

  13. A generalized adjoint framework for sensitivity and global error estimation in time-dependent nuclear reactor simulations

    Stripling, H.F.; Anitescu, M.; Adams, M.L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop an abstract framework for computing the adjoint to the neutron/nuclide burnup equations posed as a system of differential algebraic equations. ► We validate use of the adjoint for computing both sensitivity to uncertain inputs and for estimating global time discretization error. ► Flexibility of the framework is leveraged to add heat transfer physics and compute its adjoint without a reformulation of the adjoint system. ► Such flexibility is crucial for high performance computing applications. -- Abstract: We develop a general framework for computing the adjoint variable to nuclear engineering problems governed by a set of differential–algebraic equations (DAEs). The nuclear engineering community has a rich history of developing and applying adjoints for sensitivity calculations; many such formulations, however, are specific to a certain set of equations, variables, or solution techniques. Any change or addition to the physics model would require a reformulation of the adjoint problem and substantial difficulties in its software implementation. In this work we propose an abstract framework that allows for the modification and expansion of the governing equations, leverages the existing theory of adjoint formulation for DAEs, and results in adjoint equations that can be used to efficiently compute sensitivities for parametric uncertainty quantification. Moreover, as we justify theoretically and demonstrate numerically, the same framework can be used to estimate global time discretization error. We first motivate the framework and show that the coupled Bateman and transport equations, which govern the time-dependent neutronic behavior of a nuclear reactor, may be formulated as a DAE system with a power constraint. We then use a variational approach to develop the parameter-dependent adjoint framework and apply existing theory to give formulations for sensitivity and global time discretization error estimates using the adjoint

  14. Error estimation and global fitting in transverse-relaxation dispersion experiments to determine chemical-exchange parameters

    Ishima, Rieko; Torchia, Dennis A.

    2005-01-01

    Off-resonance effects can introduce significant systematic errors in R 2 measurements in constant-time Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) transverse relaxation dispersion experiments. For an off-resonance chemical shift of 500 Hz, 15 N relaxation dispersion profiles obtained from experiment and computer simulation indicated a systematic error of ca. 3%. This error is three- to five-fold larger than the random error in R 2 caused by noise. Good estimates of total R 2 uncertainty are critical in order to obtain accurate estimates in optimized chemical exchange parameters and their uncertainties derived from χ 2 minimization of a target function. Here, we present a simple empirical approach that provides a good estimate of the total error (systematic + random) in 15 N R 2 values measured for the HIV protease. The advantage of this empirical error estimate is that it is applicable even when some of the factors that contribute to the off-resonance error are not known. These errors are incorporated into a χ 2 minimization protocol, in which the Carver-Richards equation is used fit the observed R 2 dispersion profiles, that yields optimized chemical exchange parameters and their confidence limits. Optimized parameters are also derived, using the same protein sample and data-fitting protocol, from 1 H R 2 measurements in which systematic errors are negligible. Although 1 H and 15 N relaxation profiles of individual residues were well fit, the optimized exchange parameters had large uncertainties (confidence limits). In contrast, when a single pair of exchange parameters (the exchange lifetime, τ ex , and the fractional population, p a ), were constrained to globally fit all R 2 profiles for residues in the dimer interface of the protein, confidence limits were less than 8% for all optimized exchange parameters. In addition, F-tests showed that quality of the fits obtained using τ ex , p a as global parameters were not improved when these parameters were free to fit the R

  15. The first estimates of global nucleation mode aerosol concentrations based on satellite measurements

    M. Kulmala

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in the Earth's climate system by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Satellites are increasingly used to obtain information on properties of aerosol particles with a diameter larger than about 100 nm. However, new aerosol particles formed by nucleation are initially much smaller and grow into the optically active size range on time scales of many hours. In this paper we derive proxies, based on process understanding and ground-based observations, to determine the concentrations of these new particles and their spatial distribution using satellite data. The results are applied to provide seasonal variation of nucleation mode concentration. The proxies describe the concentration of nucleation mode particles over continents. The source rates are related to both regional nucleation and nucleation associated with more restricted sources. The global pattern of nucleation mode particle number concentration predicted by satellite data using our proxies is compared qualitatively against both observations and global model simulations.

  16. Estimating pesticide emission fractions for use in LCA: A global consensus-building effort

    Fantke, Peter; Anton, Assumpcio; Basset-Mens, Claudine

    2016-01-01

    agreement on recommended default agricultural pesticide emission fractions to environmental media. Consensual decisions on the assessment framework are (a) primary distributions are used as inputs for LCIA, while further investigating how to assess secondary emissions, (b) framework and LCA application...... and application method scenarios will be based on sensitiv ity analysis, (g) default emission estimates for LCA will be derived from production-weighted averages, and (h) emission fractions will be reported spatially disaggregated. Recommendations for LCA practitioners and database developers are (a) LCA studies...... the field as part of technosphere and ecosphere, (e) fate and exposure processes should be included in LCIA (e.g. crop uptake), (f) default emission estimates should be used in absence of detailed scenario data, (g) and all assumptions should be reported. The recommended pesticide emission fractions results...

  17. Global a priori estimates for the inhomogeneous Landau equation with moderately soft potentials

    Cameron, Stephen; Silvestre, Luis; Snelson, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    We establish a priori upper bounds for solutions to the spatially inhomogeneous Landau equation in the case of moderately soft potentials, with arbitrary initial data, under the assumption that mass, energy and entropy densities stay under control. Our pointwise estimates decay polynomially in the velocity variable. We also show that if the initial data satisfies a Gaussian upper bound, this bound is propagated for all positive times.

  18. Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: Re-estimation and country results

    Cobham, Alex; Janský, Petr

    2017-01-01

    International corporate tax is an important source of government revenue, especially in lower-income countries. An important recent study of the scale of this problem was carried out by International Monetary Fund researchers Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud De Mooij, and Michael Keen. We first re-estimate their innovative model, and then explore the effects of introducing higher-quality revenue data from the ICTD-WIDER Government Revenue Database. Whereas Crivelli et al. report results for two country...

  19. Precise Receiver Clock Offset Estimations According to Each Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Timescales

    Thongtan, Thayathip; Tirawanichakul, Pawit; Satirapod, Chalermchon

    2017-12-01

    Each GNSS constellation operates its own system times; namely, GPS system time (GPST), GLONASS system time (GLONASST), BeiDou system time (BDT) and Galileo system time (GST). They could be traced back to Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) scale and are aligned to GPST. This paper estimates the receiver clock offsets to three timescales: GPST, GLONASST and BDT. The two measurement scenarios use two identical multi-GNSS geodetic receivers connected to the same geodetic antenna through a splitter. One receiver is driven by its internal oscillators and another receiver is connected to the external frequency oscillators, caesium frequency standard, kept as the Thailand standard time scale at the National Institute of Metrology (Thailand) called UTC(NIMT). The three weeks data are observed at 30 seconds sample rate. The receiver clock offsets with respected to the three system time are estimated and analysed through the geodetic technique of static Precise Point Positioning (PPP) using a data processing software developed by Wuhan University - Positioning And Navigation Data Analyst (PANDA) software. The estimated receiver clock offsets are around 32, 33 and 18 nanoseconds from GPST, GLONASST and BDT respectively. This experiment is initially stated that each timescale is inter-operated with GPST and further measurements on receiver internal delay has to be determined for clock comparisons especially the high accuracy clock at timing laboratories.

  20. Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV Dyads for Estimating Global Intelligence.

    Girard, Todd A; Axelrod, Bradley N; Patel, Ronak; Crawford, John R

    2015-08-01

    All possible two-subtest combinations of the core Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV (WAIS-IV) subtests were evaluated as possible viable short forms for estimating full-scale IQ (FSIQ). Validity of the dyads was evaluated relative to FSIQ in a large clinical sample (N = 482) referred for neuropsychological assessment. Sample validity measures included correlations, mean discrepancies, and levels of agreement between dyad estimates and FSIQ scores. In addition, reliability and validity coefficients were derived from WAIS-IV standardization data. The Coding + Information dyad had the strongest combination of reliability and validity data. However, several other dyads yielded comparable psychometric performance, albeit with some variability in their particular strengths. We also observed heterogeneity between validity coefficients from the clinical and standardization-based estimates for several dyads. Thus, readers are encouraged to also consider the individual psychometric attributes, their clinical or research goals, and client or sample characteristics when selecting among the dyadic short forms. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Noninvasive estimation of global activation sequence using the extended Kalman filter.

    Liu, Chenguang; He, Bin

    2011-03-01

    A new algorithm for 3-D imaging of the activation sequence from noninvasive body surface potentials is proposed. After formulating the nonlinear relationship between the 3-D activation sequence and the body surface recordings during activation, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) is utilized to estimate the activation sequence in a recursive way. The state vector containing the activation sequence is optimized during iteration by updating the error variance/covariance matrix. A new regularization scheme is incorporated into the "predict" procedure of EKF to tackle the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. The EKF-based algorithm shows good performance in simulation under single-site pacing. Between the estimated activation sequences and true values, the average correlation coefficient (CC) is 0.95, and the relative error (RE) is 0.13. The average localization error (LE) when localizing the pacing site is 3.0 mm. Good results are also obtained under dual-site pacing (CC = 0.93, RE = 0.16, and LE = 4.3 mm). Furthermore, the algorithm shows robustness to noise. The present promising results demonstrate that the proposed EKF-based inverse approach can noninvasively estimate the 3-D activation sequence with good accuracy and the new algorithm shows good features due to the application of EKF.

  2. Relative motions of the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates estimated by the Global Positioning System

    Larson, Kristine M.; Freymueller, Jeff

    1995-01-01

    Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements spanning approximately 3 years have been used to determine velocities for 7 sites on the Australian, Pacific and Antarctic plates. The site velocities agree with both plate model predictions and other space geodetic techniques. We find no evidence for internal deformation of the interior of the Australian plate. Wellington, New Zealand, located in the Australian-Pacific plate boundary zone, moves 20 +/- 5 mm/yr west-southwest relative to the Australian plate. Its velocity lies midway between the predicted velocities of the two plates. Relative Euler vectors for the Australia-Antarctica and Pacific-Antarctica plates agree within one standard deviation with the NUVEL-1A predictions.

  3. Ultrasensitivity in signaling cascades revisited: Linking local and global ultrasensitivity estimations.

    Edgar Altszyler

    Full Text Available Ultrasensitive response motifs, capable of converting graded stimuli into binary responses, are well-conserved in signal transduction networks. Although it has been shown that a cascade arrangement of multiple ultrasensitive modules can enhance the system's ultrasensitivity, how a given combination of layers affects a cascade's ultrasensitivity remains an open question for the general case. Here, we introduce a methodology that allows us to determine the presence of sequestration effects and to quantify the relative contribution of each module to the overall cascade's ultrasensitivity. The proposed analysis framework provides a natural link between global and local ultrasensitivity descriptors and it is particularly well-suited to characterize and understand mathematical models used to study real biological systems. As a case study, we have considered three mathematical models introduced by O'Shaughnessy et al. to study a tunable synthetic MAPK cascade, and we show how our methodology can help modelers better understand alternative models.

  4. A calculation code for estimating the global inventory of tritium from the ICSI Pilot Installation

    Pavelescu, Alexandru Octavian; Prisecaru, Ilie; Stefanescu, Ioan

    2007-01-01

    The paper describes the TRITINV program which performs a global updating of the total tritium inventory within the whole ICSI heavy water detritiation installation. The calculation does not take into account the distribution or the type of the tritium inventory on the installation modules. The program stores all the values submitted by user or computed, into a database which is permanently upgraded. It can also create charts based on its data and print or export this data in other formats. The application has been successfully tested and responded well to the initial requirements. It can be modified or improved anytime using the Microsoft Access 2003 Program. An important advancement would consist in upgrading the TRITINV into a stand-alone application by editing and compiling it in Microsoft Visual Studio 2005. (authors)

  5. A frequency domain global parameter estimation method for multiple reference frequency response measurements

    Shih, C. Y.; Tsuei, Y. G.; Allemang, R. J.; Brown, D. L.

    1988-10-01

    A method of using the matrix Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model in the Laplace domain for multiple-reference global parameter identification is presented. This method is particularly applicable to the area of modal analysis where high modal density exists. The method is also applicable when multiple reference frequency response functions are used to characterise linear systems. In order to facilitate the mathematical solution, the Forsythe orthogonal polynomial is used to reduce the ill-conditioning of the formulated equations and to decouple the normal matrix into two reduced matrix blocks. A Complex Mode Indicator Function (CMIF) is introduced, which can be used to determine the proper order of the rational polynomials.

  6. Improving global estimates of syphilis in pregnancy by diagnostic test type: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Ham, D Cal; Lin, Carol; Newman, Lori; Wijesooriya, N Saman; Kamb, Mary

    2015-06-01

    "Probable active syphilis," is defined as seroreactivity in both non-treponemal and treponemal tests. A correction factor of 65%, namely the proportion of pregnant women reactive in one syphilis test type that were likely reactive in the second, was applied to reported syphilis seropositivity data reported to WHO for global estimates of syphilis during pregnancy. To identify more accurate correction factors based on test type reported. Medline search using: "Syphilis [Mesh] and Pregnancy [Mesh]," "Syphilis [Mesh] and Prenatal Diagnosis [Mesh]," and "Syphilis [Mesh] and Antenatal [Keyword]. Eligible studies must have reported results for pregnant or puerperal women for both non-treponemal and treponemal serology. We manually calculated the crude percent estimates of subjects with both reactive treponemal and reactive non-treponemal tests among subjects with reactive treponemal and among subjects with reactive non-treponemal tests. We summarized the percent estimates using random effects models. Countries reporting both reactive non-treponemal and reactive treponemal testing required no correction factor. Countries reporting non-treponemal testing or treponemal testing alone required a correction factor of 52.2% and 53.6%, respectively. Countries not reporting test type required a correction factor of 68.6%. Future estimates should adjust reported maternal syphilis seropositivity by test type to ensure accuracy. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  7. Preterm-associated visual impairment and estimates of retinopathy of prematurity at regional and global levels for 2010

    Blencowe, Hannah; Lawn, Joy E.; Vazquez, Thomas; Fielder, Alistair; Gilbert, Clare

    2013-01-01

    Background: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a leading cause of potentially avoidable childhood blindness worldwide. We estimated ROP burden at the global and regional levels to inform screening and treatment programs, research, and data priorities. Methods: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were undertaken to estimate the risk of ROP and subsequent visual impairment for surviving preterm babies by level of neonatal care, access to ROP screening, and treatment. A compartmental model was used to estimate ROP cases and numbers of visually impaired survivors. Results: In 2010, an estimated 184,700 (uncertainty range: 169,600–214,500) preterm babies developed any stage of ROP, 20,000 (15,500–27,200) of whom became blind or severely visually impaired from ROP, and a further 12,300 (8,300–18,400) developed mild/moderate visual impairment. Sixty-five percent of those visually impaired from ROP were born in middle-income regions; 6.2% (4.3–8.9%) of all ROP visually impaired infants were born at >32-wk gestation. Visual impairment from other conditions associated with preterm birth will affect larger numbers of survivors. Conclusion: Improved care, including oxygen delivery and monitoring, for preterm babies in all facility settings would reduce the number of babies affected with ROP. Improved data tracking and coverage of locally adapted screening/treatment programs are urgently required. PMID:24366462

  8. CMORPH 8 Km: A Method that Produces Global Precipitation Estimates from Passive Microwave and Infrared Data at High Spatial and Temporal Resolution

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A new technique is presented in which half-hourly global precipitation estimates derived from passive microwave satellite scans are propagated by motion vectors...

  9. Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in the eastern Mediterranean region in Turkey by using artificial neural networks

    Sahan, Muhittin; Yakut, Emre

    2016-01-01

    In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to estimate monthly average global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for selected 5 locations in Mediterranean region for period of 18 years (1993-2010). Meteorological and geographical data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The ANN architecture designed is a feed-forward back-propagation model with one-hidden layer containing 21 neurons with hyperbolic tangent sigmoid as the transfer function and one output layer utilized a linear transfer function (purelin). The training algorithm used in ANN model was the Levenberg Marquand back propagation algorith (trainlm). Results obtained from ANN model were compared with measured meteorological values by using statistical methods. A correlation coefficient of 97.97 (~98%) was obtained with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.852 MJ/m 2 , mean square error (MSE) of 0.725 MJ/m 2 , mean absolute bias error (MABE) 10.659MJ/m 2 , and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.8%. Results show good agreement between the estimated and measured values of global solar radiation. We suggest that the developed ANN model can be used to predict solar radiation another location and conditions

  10. Estimating water consumption of potential natural vegetation on global dry lands: building an LCA framework for green water flows.

    Núñez, Montserrat; Pfister, Stephan; Roux, Philippe; Antón, Assumpció

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to provide a framework for assessing direct soil-water consumption, also termed green water in the literature, in life cycle assessment (LCA). This was an issue that LCA had not tackled before. The approach, which is applied during the life cycle inventory phase (LCI), consists of quantifying the net change in the evapo(transpi)ration of the production system compared to the natural reference situation. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is used as the natural reference situation. In order to apply the method, we estimated PNV evapotranspiration adapted to local biogeographic conditions, on global dry lands, where soil-water consumption impacts can be critical. Values are reported at different spatial aggregation levels: 10-arcmin global grid, ecoregions (501 units), biomes (14 units), countries (124 units), continents, and a global average, to facilitate the assessment for different spatial information detail levels available in the LCI. The method is intended to be used in rain-fed agriculture and rainwater harvesting contexts, which includes direct soil moisture uptake by plants and rainwater harvested and then reused in production systems. The paper provides the necessary LCI method and data for further development of impact assessment models and characterization factors to evaluate the environmental effects of the net change in evapo(transpi)ration.

  11. Mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil, 1990 to 2015, according to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study

    Deborah Carvalho Malta

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs are the leading health problem globally and generate high numbers of premature deaths and loss of quality of life. The aim here was to describe the major groups of causes of death due to NCDs and the ranking of the leading causes of premature death between 1990 and 2015, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2015 study estimates for Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study covering Brazil and its 27 federal states. METHODS: This was a descriptive study on rates of mortality due to NCDs, with corrections for garbage codes and underreporting of deaths. RESULTS: This study shows the epidemiological transition in Brazil between 1990 and 2015, with increasing proportional mortality due to NCDs, followed by violence, and decreasing mortality due to communicable, maternal and neonatal causes within the global burden of diseases. NCDs had the highest mortality rates over the whole period, but with reductions in cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Diabetes increased over this period. NCDs were the leading causes of premature death (30 to 69 years: ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases, followed by interpersonal violence, traffic injuries and HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION: The decline in mortality due to NCDs confirms that improvements in disease control have been achieved in Brazil. Nonetheless, the high mortality due to violence is a warning sign. Through maintaining the current decline in NCDs, Brazil should meet the target of 25% reduction proposed by the World Health Organization by 2025.

  12. Causes of Death Data in the Global Burden of Disease Estimates for Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke

    Truelsen, Thomas; Krarup, Lars-Henrik; Iversen, Helle K

    2015-01-01

    on the International Classification of Diseases and the pathology behind each code by checking multiple causes of death and literature review. RESULTS: Unspecified stroke and primary and secondary hypertension are leading contributing 'GCs' to stroke mortality estimates for hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and ischemic stroke...... (IS). There were marked differences in the fraction of death assigned to IS and HS for unspecified stroke and hypertension between GBD regions and between age groups. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of stroke fatalities are derived from the redistribution of 'unspecified stroke' and 'hypertension...

  13. Development of an Intelligent Tire Based Tire - Vehicle State Estimator for Application to Global Chassis Control

    Singh, Kanwar Bharat

    2012-01-01

    The contact between the tire and the road is the key enabler of vehicle acceleration, deceleration and steering. However, under the circumstances of sudden changes to the road conditions, the driver`s ability to maintain control of the vehicle maybe at risk. In many cases, this requires intervention from the chassis control systems onboard the vehicle. Although these systems perform well in a variety of situations, their performance can be improved if a real-time estimate of the tire-road c...

  14. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Lone Simonsen

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09 is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85% were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012.We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A

  15. GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

    Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

    2018-01-01

    Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

  16. Estimation of available global solar radiation using sunshine duration over South Korea

    Das, Amrita; Park, Jin-ki; Park, Jong-hwa

    2015-11-01

    Besides designing a solar energy system, accurate insolation data is also a key component for many biological and atmospheric studies. But solar radiation stations are not widely available due to financial and technical limitations; this insufficient number affects the spatial resolution whenever an attempt is made to construct a solar radiation map. There are several models in literature for estimating incoming solar radiation using sunshine fraction. Seventeen of such models among which 6 are linear and 11 non-linear, have been chosen for studying and estimating solar radiation on a horizontal surface over South Korea. The better performance of a non-linear model signifies the fact that the relationship between sunshine duration and clearness index does not follow a straight line. With such a model solar radiation over 79 stations measuring sunshine duration is computed and used as input for spatial interpolation. Finally monthly solar radiation maps are constructed using the Ordinary Kriging method. The cross validation results show good agreement between observed and predicted data.

  17. Background monitoring and its role in global estimation and forecast of the state of the biosphere.

    Izrael, Y A

    1982-12-01

    (1) Scientific grounds and the concept of monitoring as the system for observations, assessment and prediction of man-induced changes in the state of natural environment, the program and aims of the background monitoring were developed by the author in 1972-1980. These questions were discussed in detail at the International Symposium on Global Integrated Monitoring (Riga, U.S.S.R., December, 1978). It should be stressed that along with significant anthropogenic loading on large cities and industrial areas, natural ecosystems covering most of the Earth's territory are also exposed to quite extended, though insignificant anthropogenic effects. This paper proposes to consider the ways of the background information use for the biosphere state assessment and prediction. (2) Classification of objects for monitoring from the point of view of the consequences of the man-made impact, pollution in the first hand, is as follows: - population (public health); - ecosystem elements employed by man whose production is used by population (soil, water bodies, forest, etc.); - biotic elements of ecosystems (without the immediate consumed production); - abiotic constituents of natural ecosystems, considerable components of the biosphere, climatic system. (3) Historically, monitoring in all countries involves the first two spheres. The background monitoring also extends on the next two spheres. It should differentially take into account physical, chemical and biological factors of impacts. Indentification of biological effects is most complex and vital. Human impact at the background level proceeds indirectly through a general (global or regional) deterioration of the state of the biosphere. (4) Gradually the background monitoring is being practiced on a larger and larger scale. It is shown that the long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants in various regions leads to a gradual general increase of all the natural media pollution and to perceptible biological effects (soil and

  18. [PDF] from biogeosciences.net Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4. 3–time series from 1990 to 2010

    Petrescu, A.M.R.; Abad-Vinas, Raul; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Blujdea, Viorel; Grassi, Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the

  19. Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

    Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

    2016-05-01

    Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

  20. Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

    Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

    2018-03-01

    The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

  1. Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

    Huan, Xun [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Sargsyan, Khachik [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Geraci, Gianluca [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eldred, Michael S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vane, Zachary P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Lacaze, Guilhem [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Oefelein, Joseph C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Najm, Habib N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-02-09

    The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. Finally, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

  2. Detection of crack-like indications in digital radiography by global optimisation of a probabilistic estimation function

    Alekseychuk, O.

    2006-07-01

    A new algorithm for detection of longitudinal crack-like indications in radiographic images is developed in this work. Conventional local detection techniques give unsatisfactory results for this task due to the low signal to noise ratio (SNR {proportional_to} 1) of crack-like indications in radiographic images. The usage of global features of crack-like indications provides the necessary noise resistance, but this is connected with prohibitive computational complexities of detection and difficulties in a formal description of the indication shape. Conventionally, the excessive computational complexity of the solution is reduced by usage of heuristics. The heuristics to be used, are selected on a trial and error basis, are problem dependent and do not guarantee the optimal solution. Not following this way is a distinctive feature of the algorithm developed here. Instead, a global characteristic of crack-like indication (the estimation function) is used, whose maximum in the space of all possible positions, lengths and shapes can be found exactly, i.e. without any heuristics. The proposed estimation function is defined as a sum of a posteriori information gains about hypothesis of indication presence in each point along the whole hypothetical indication. The gain in the information about hypothesis of indication presence results from the analysis of the underlying image in the local area. Such an estimation function is theoretically justified and exhibits a desirable behaviour on changing signals. The developed algorithm is implemented in the C++ programming language and tested on synthetic as well as on real images. It delivers good results (high correct detection rate by given false alarm rate) which are comparable to the performance of trained human inspectors.

  3. Detection of crack-like indications in digital radiography by global optimisation of a probabilistic estimation function

    Alekseychuk, O.

    2006-01-01

    A new algorithm for detection of longitudinal crack-like indications in radiographic images is developed in this work. Conventional local detection techniques give unsatisfactory results for this task due to the low signal to noise ratio (SNR ∝ 1) of crack-like indications in radiographic images. The usage of global features of crack-like indications provides the necessary noise resistance, but this is connected with prohibitive computational complexities of detection and difficulties in a formal description of the indication shape. Conventionally, the excessive computational complexity of the solution is reduced by usage of heuristics. The heuristics to be used, are selected on a trial and error basis, are problem dependent and do not guarantee the optimal solution. Not following this way is a distinctive feature of the algorithm developed here. Instead, a global characteristic of crack-like indication (the estimation function) is used, whose maximum in the space of all possible positions, lengths and shapes can be found exactly, i.e. without any heuristics. The proposed estimation function is defined as a sum of a posteriori information gains about hypothesis of indication presence in each point along the whole hypothetical indication. The gain in the information about hypothesis of indication presence results from the analysis of the underlying image in the local area. Such an estimation function is theoretically justified and exhibits a desirable behaviour on changing signals. The developed algorithm is implemented in the C++ programming language and tested on synthetic as well as on real images. It delivers good results (high correct detection rate by given false alarm rate) which are comparable to the performance of trained human inspectors

  4. Estimates of global biomass burning emissions for reactive greenhouse gases (CO, NMHCs, and NOx) and CO2

    Jain, Atul K.; Tao, Zhining; Yang, Xiaojuan; Gillespie, Conor

    2006-03-01

    Open fire biomass burning and domestic biofuel burning (e.g., cooking, heating, and charcoal making) algorithms have been incorporated into a terrestrial ecosystem model to estimate CO2 and key reactive GHGs (CO, NOx, and NMHCs) emissions for the year 2000. The emissions are calculated over the globe at a 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution using tree density imagery, and two separate sets of data each for global area burned and land clearing for croplands, along with biofuel consumption rate data. The estimated global and annual total dry matter (DM) burned due to open fire biomass burning ranges between 5221 and 7346 Tg DM/yr, whereas the resultant emissions ranges are 6564-9093 Tg CO2/yr, 438-568 Tg CO/yr, 11-16 Tg NOx/yr (as NO), and 29-40 Tg NMHCs/yr. The results indicate that land use changes for cropland is one of the major sources of biomass burning, which amounts to 25-27% (CO2), 25 -28% (CO), 20-23% (NO), and 28-30% (NMHCs) of the total open fire biomass burning emissions of these gases. Estimated DM burned associated with domestic biofuel burning is 3,114 Tg DM/yr, and resultant emissions are 4825 Tg CO2/yr, 243 Tg CO/yr, 3 Tg NOx/yr, and 23 Tg NMHCs/yr. Total emissions from biomass burning are highest in tropical regions (Asia, America, and Africa), where we identify important contributions from primary forest cutting for croplands and domestic biofuel burning.

  5. Global rotational motion and displacement estimation of digital image stabilization based on the oblique vectors matching algorithm

    Yu, Fei; Hui, Mei; Zhao, Yue-jin

    2009-08-01

    The image block matching algorithm based on motion vectors of correlative pixels in oblique direction is presented for digital image stabilization. The digital image stabilization is a new generation of image stabilization technique which can obtains the information of relative motion among frames of dynamic image sequences by the method of digital image processing. In this method the matching parameters are calculated from the vectors projected in the oblique direction. The matching parameters based on the vectors contain the information of vectors in transverse and vertical direction in the image blocks at the same time. So the better matching information can be obtained after making correlative operation in the oblique direction. And an iterative weighted least square method is used to eliminate the error of block matching. The weights are related with the pixels' rotational angle. The center of rotation and the global emotion estimation of the shaking image can be obtained by the weighted least square from the estimation of each block chosen evenly from the image. Then, the shaking image can be stabilized with the center of rotation and the global emotion estimation. Also, the algorithm can run at real time by the method of simulated annealing in searching method of block matching. An image processing system based on DSP was used to exam this algorithm. The core processor in the DSP system is TMS320C6416 of TI, and the CCD camera with definition of 720×576 pixels was chosen as the input video signal. Experimental results show that the algorithm can be performed at the real time processing system and have an accurate matching precision.

  6. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  7. Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for 2000 and projections for 2030

    Wild, Sarah; Roglic, Gojka; Green, Anders

    2004-01-01

    . The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people 65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS — These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence......OBJECTIVE — The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS — Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World...... of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence....

  8. Estimating the size of illicit tobacco consumption in Brazil: findings from the global adult tobacco survey.

    Iglesias, Roberto Magno; Szklo, André Salem; Souza, Mirian Carvalho de; de Almeida, Liz Maria

    2017-01-01

    Brazil experienced a large decline in smoking prevalence between 2008 and 2013. Tax rate increases since 2007 and a new tobacco tax structure in 2012 may have played an important role in this decline. However, continuous tax rate increases pushed up cigarette prices over personal income growth and, therefore, some consumers, especially lower income individuals, may have migrated to cheaper illicit cigarettes. To use tobacco surveillance data to estimate the size of illicit tobacco consumption before and after excise tax increases. We defined a threshold price and compared it with purchasing prices obtained from two representative surveys conducted in 2008 and 2013 to estimate the proportion of illicit cigarette use among daily smokers. Generalised linear model was specified to understand whether the absolute difference in proportions over time differed by sociodemographic groups and consumption levels. Our findings were validated using an alternative method. Total proportion of illicit daily consumption increased from 16.6% to 31.1% between 2008 and 2013. We observed a pattern of unadjusted absolute decreases in cigarette smoking prevalence and increases in the proportion of illicit consumption, irrespective of gender, age, educational level, area of residence and amount of cigarettes consumed. The strategy of raising taxes has increased government revenues, reduced smoking prevalence and resulted in an increased illicit trade. Surveillance data can be used to provide information on illicit tobacco trade to help in the implementation of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) article 15 and the FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. Outlook for Global Nuclear Power: Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050

    Gritsevskyi, A.

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear power's global expansion is projected to continue in the coming decades - albeit at a slowing pace - amid challenges including low fossil fuel prices, a sluggish world economy and the legacy of Japan's Fukushima Daiichi accident. Each year, the IAEA publishes projections of the world's nuclear power generating capacity in Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, now in its 35th edition.The latest projections point to slower growth in nuclear power, in keeping with the trend since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident. The world's nuclear power generating capacity is projected to expand by 2.4 percent by 2030, according to the low projections, compared with 7.7 percent estimated in 2014. In the high case, generating capacity is estimated to grow by 68 percent by 2030, versus 88 percent forecast last year. Uncertainty related to energy policy, license renewals, shutdowns and future constructions accounts for the wide range.The estimates also factor in the likely future retirement of many of the world's 438 nuclear reactors currently in operation, more than half of which are over 30 years old. Despite the need to replace scores of retiring reactors, nuclear power is still set to maintain - and possibly increase - its role in the world's low-carbon energy mix. It's important to understand that these projections, while carefully derived, are not predictions.The estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends, whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.(author).

  10. World Health Organization Estimates of the Global and Regional Disease Burden of 11 Foodborne Parasitic Diseases, 2010: A Data Synthesis.

    Paul R Torgerson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Foodborne diseases are globally important, resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Parasitic diseases often result in high burdens of disease in low and middle income countries and are frequently transmitted to humans via contaminated food. This study presents the first estimates of the global and regional human disease burden of 10 helminth diseases and toxoplasmosis that may be attributed to contaminated food.Data were abstracted from 16 systematic reviews or similar studies published between 2010 and 2015; from 5 disease data bases accessed in 2015; and from 79 reports, 73 of which have been published since 2000, 4 published between 1995 and 2000 and 2 published in 1986 and 1981. These included reports from national surveillance systems, journal articles, and national estimates of foodborne diseases. These data were used to estimate the number of infections, sequelae, deaths, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs, by age and region for 2010. These parasitic diseases, resulted in 48.4 million cases (95% Uncertainty intervals [UI] of 43.4-79.0 million and 59,724 (95% UI 48,017-83,616 deaths annually resulting in 8.78 million (95% UI 7.62-12.51 million DALYs. We estimated that 48% (95% UI 38%-56% of cases of these parasitic diseases were foodborne, resulting in 76% (95% UI 65%-81% of the DALYs attributable to these diseases. Overall, foodborne parasitic disease, excluding enteric protozoa, caused an estimated 23.2 million (95% UI 18.2-38.1 million cases and 45,927 (95% UI 34,763-59,933 deaths annually resulting in an estimated 6.64 million (95% UI 5.61-8.41 million DALYs. Foodborne Ascaris infection (12.3 million cases, 95% UI 8.29-22.0 million and foodborne toxoplasmosis (10.3 million cases, 95% UI 7.40-14.9 million were the most common foodborne parasitic diseases. Human cysticercosis with 2.78 million DALYs (95% UI 2.14-3.61 million, foodborne trematodosis with 2.02 million DALYs (95% UI 1.65-2.48 million and foodborne

  11. Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

    Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

    2017-12-01

    Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

  12. Global Estimates of Errors in Quantum Computation by the Feynman-Vernon Formalism

    Aurell, Erik

    2018-04-01

    The operation of a quantum computer is considered as a general quantum operation on a mixed state on many qubits followed by a measurement. The general quantum operation is further represented as a Feynman-Vernon double path integral over the histories of the qubits and of an environment, and afterward tracing out the environment. The qubit histories are taken to be paths on the two-sphere S^2 as in Klauder's coherent-state path integral of spin, and the environment is assumed to consist of harmonic oscillators initially in thermal equilibrium, and linearly coupled to to qubit operators \\hat{S}_z . The environment can then be integrated out to give a Feynman-Vernon influence action coupling the forward and backward histories of the qubits. This representation allows to derive in a simple way estimates that the total error of operation of a quantum computer without error correction scales linearly with the number of qubits and the time of operation. It also allows to discuss Kitaev's toric code interacting with an environment in the same manner.

  13. Estimating the global public health implications of electricity and coal consumption.

    Gohlke, Julia M; Thomas, Reuben; Woodward, Alistair; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Prüss-Üstün, Annette; Hales, Simon; Portier, Christopher J

    2011-06-01

    The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity. We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes. Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year's LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results. The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation. Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM consumption has significant detrimental health impacts.

  14. Global Estimates of Errors in Quantum Computation by the Feynman-Vernon Formalism

    Aurell, Erik

    2018-06-01

    The operation of a quantum computer is considered as a general quantum operation on a mixed state on many qubits followed by a measurement. The general quantum operation is further represented as a Feynman-Vernon double path integral over the histories of the qubits and of an environment, and afterward tracing out the environment. The qubit histories are taken to be paths on the two-sphere S^2 as in Klauder's coherent-state path integral of spin, and the environment is assumed to consist of harmonic oscillators initially in thermal equilibrium, and linearly coupled to to qubit operators \\hat{S}_z. The environment can then be integrated out to give a Feynman-Vernon influence action coupling the forward and backward histories of the qubits. This representation allows to derive in a simple way estimates that the total error of operation of a quantum computer without error correction scales linearly with the number of qubits and the time of operation. It also allows to discuss Kitaev's toric code interacting with an environment in the same manner.

  15. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

    Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

    2017-01-01

    Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

  16. Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines

    Yan, Xiaoyuan; Akiyama, Hiroko; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

    2009-06-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH4) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH4 emissions from rice fields, none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore, we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH4 emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this, we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a-1, which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a-1; however, the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season, the CH4 emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a-1. Furthermore, we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a-1 globally. Finally, if both of these mitigation options were adopted, the global CH4 emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a-1. Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH4 reduction associated with draining the fields.

  17. Multi-Sensor Constrained Time Varying Emissions Estimation of Black Carbon: Attributing Urban and Fire Sources Globally

    Cohen, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    The short lifetime and heterogeneous distribution of Black Carbon (BC) in the atmosphere leads to complex impacts on radiative forcing, climate, and health, and complicates analysis of its atmospheric processing and emissions. Two recent papers have estimated the global and regional emissions of BC using advanced statistical and computational methods. One used a Kalman Filter, including data from AERONET, NOAA, and other ground-based sources, to estimate global emissions of 17.8+/-5.6 Tg BC/year (with the increase attributable to East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe - all regions which have had rapid urban, industrial, and economic expansion). The second additionally used remotely sensed measurements from MISR and a variance maximizing technique, uniquely quantifying fire and urban sources in Southeast Asia, as well as their large year-to-year variability over the past 12 years, leading to increases from 10% to 150%. These new emissions products, when run through our state-of-the art modelling system of chemistry, physics, transport, removal, radiation, and climate, match 140 ground stations and satellites better in both an absolute and a temporal sense. New work now further includes trace species measurements from OMI, which are used with the variance maximizing technique to constrain the types of emissions sources. Furthermore, land-use change and fire estimation products from MODIS are also included, which provide other constraints on the temporal and spatial nature of the variations of intermittent sources like fires or new permanent sources like expanded urbanization. This talk will introduce a new, top-down constrained, weekly varying BC emissions dataset, show that it produces a better fit with observations, and draw conclusions about the sources and impacts from urbanization one hand, and fires on another hand. Results specific to the Southeast and East Asia will demonstrate inter- and intra-annual variations, such as the function of

  18. Semi-empirical models for the estimation of clear sky solar global and direct normal irradiances in the tropics

    Janjai, S.; Sricharoen, K.; Pattarapanitchai, S.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → New semi-empirical models for predicting clear sky irradiance were developed. → The proposed models compare favorably with other empirical models. → Performance of proposed models is comparable with that of widely used physical models. → The proposed models have advantage over the physical models in terms of simplicity. -- Abstract: This paper presents semi-empirical models for estimating global and direct normal solar irradiances under clear sky conditions in the tropics. The models are based on a one-year period of clear sky global and direct normal irradiances data collected at three solar radiation monitoring stations in Thailand: Chiang Mai (18.78 o N, 98.98 o E) located in the North of the country, Nakhon Pathom (13.82 o N, 100.04 o E) in the Centre and Songkhla (7.20 o N, 100.60 o E) in the South. The models describe global and direct normal irradiances as functions of the Angstrom turbidity coefficient, the Angstrom wavelength exponent, precipitable water and total column ozone. The data of Angstrom turbidity coefficient, wavelength exponent and precipitable water were obtained from AERONET sunphotometers, and column ozone was retrieved from the OMI/AURA satellite. Model validation was accomplished using data from these three stations for the data periods which were not included in the model formulation. The models were also validated against an independent data set collected at Ubon Ratchathani (15.25 o N, 104.87 o E) in the Northeast. The global and direct normal irradiances calculated from the models and those obtained from measurements are in good agreement, with the root mean square difference (RMSD) of 7.5% for both global and direct normal irradiances. The performance of the models was also compared with that of other models. The performance of the models compared favorably with that of empirical models. Additionally, the accuracy of irradiances predicted from the proposed model are comparable with that obtained from some

  19. Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

    2013-01-01

    Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

  20. A global mean ocean circulation estimation using goce gravity models - the DTU12MDT mean dynamic topography model

    Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, a newer gravity model have been...... combined with the DTU10MSS mean sea surface model to construct a global mean dynamic topography model named DTU10MDT. The results of preliminary analyses using preliminary GOCE gravity models clearly demonstrated the potential of GOCE mission. Both the resolution and the estimation of the surface currents...... have been improved significantly compared to results obtained using pre-GOCE gravity field models. The results of this study show that geostrophic surface currents associated with the mean circulation have been further improved and that currents having speeds down to 5 cm/s have been recovered....

  1. Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-01-01

    While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy.

  2. A new hybrid support vector machine–wavelet transform approach for estimation of horizontal global solar radiation

    Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Tong, Chong Wen; Arif, Muhammad; Petković, Dalibor; Ch, Sudheer

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR) is predicted based on a new hybrid approach. • Support Vector Machines and Wavelet Transform algorithm (SVM–WT) are combined. • Different sets of meteorological elements are used to predict HGSR. • The precision of SVM–WT is assessed thoroughly against ANN, GP and ARMA. • SVM–WT would be an appealing approach to predict HGSR and outperforms others. - Abstract: In this paper, a new hybrid approach by combining the Support Vector Machine (SVM) with Wavelet Transform (WT) algorithm is developed to predict horizontal global solar radiation. The predictions are conducted on both daily and monthly mean scales for an Iranian coastal city. The proposed SVM–WT method is compared against other existing techniques to demonstrate its efficiency and viability. Three different sets of parameters are served as inputs to establish three models. The results indicate that the model using relative sunshine duration, difference between air temperatures, relative humidity, average temperature and extraterrestrial solar radiation as inputs shows higher performance than other models. The statistical analysis demonstrates that SVM–WT approach enjoys very good performance and outperforms other approaches. For the best SVM–WT model, the obtained statistical indicators of mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, relative root mean square error and coefficient of determination for daily estimation are 6.9996%, 0.8405 MJ/m 2 , 1.4245 MJ/m 2 , 7.9467% and 0.9086, respectively. Also, for monthly mean estimation the values are 3.2601%, 0.5104 MJ/m 2 , 0.6618 MJ/m 2 , 3.6935% and 0.9742, respectively. Based upon relative percentage error, for the best SVM–WT model, 88.70% of daily predictions fall within the acceptable range of −10% to +10%

  3. Estimating the position and orientation of a mobile robot with respect to a trajectory using omnidirectional imaging and global appearance.

    Luis Payá

    Full Text Available Along the past years, mobile robots have proliferated both in domestic and in industrial environments to solve some tasks such as cleaning, assistance, or material transportation. One of their advantages is the ability to operate in wide areas without the necessity of introducing changes into the existing infrastructure. Thanks to the sensors they may be equipped with and their processing systems, mobile robots constitute a versatile alternative to solve a wide range of applications. When designing the control system of a mobile robot so that it carries out a task autonomously in an unknown environment, it is expected to take decisions about its localization in the environment and about the trajectory that it has to follow in order to arrive to the target points. More concisely, the robot has to find a relatively good solution to two crucial problems: building a model of the environment, and estimating the position of the robot within this model. In this work, we propose a framework to solve these problems using only visual information. The mobile robot is equipped with a catadioptric vision sensor that provides omnidirectional images from the environment. First, the robot goes along the trajectories to include in the model and uses the visual information captured to build this model. After that, the robot is able to estimate its position and orientation with respect to the trajectory. Among the possible approaches to solve these problems, global appearance techniques are used in this work. They have emerged recently as a robust and efficient alternative compared to landmark extraction techniques. A global description method based on Radon Transform is used to design mapping and localization algorithms and a set of images captured by a mobile robot in a real environment, under realistic operation conditions, is used to test the performance of these algorithms.

  4. Global Validation of MODIS Atmospheric Profile-Derived Near-Surface Air Temperature and Dew Point Estimates

    Famiglietti, C.; Fisher, J.; Halverson, G. H.

    2017-12-01

    This study validates a method of remote sensing near-surface meteorology that vertically interpolates MODIS atmospheric profiles to surface pressure level. The extraction of air temperature and dew point observations at a two-meter reference height from 2001 to 2014 yields global moderate- to fine-resolution near-surface temperature distributions that are compared to geographically and temporally corresponding measurements from 114 ground meteorological stations distributed worldwide. This analysis is the first robust, large-scale validation of the MODIS-derived near-surface air temperature and dew point estimates, both of which serve as key inputs in models of energy, water, and carbon exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Results show strong linear correlations between remotely sensed and in-situ near-surface air temperature measurements (R2 = 0.89), as well as between dew point observations (R2 = 0.77). Performance is relatively uniform across climate zones. The extension of mean climate-wise percent errors to the entire remote sensing dataset allows for the determination of MODIS air temperature and dew point uncertainties on a global scale.

  5. A comparison of the Angstrom-type correlations and the estimation of monthly average daily global irradiation

    Jain, S.; Jain, P.C.

    1985-12-01

    Linear regression analysis of the monthly average daily global irradiation and the sunshine duration data of 8 Zambian locations has been performed using the least square technique. Good correlation (r>0.95) is obtained in all the cases showing that the Angstrom equation is valid for Zambian locations. The values of the correlation parameters thus obtained show substantial unsystematic scatter. The analysis was repeated after incorporating the effects of (i) multiple reflections of radiation between the ground and the atmosphere, and (ii) not burning of the sunshine recorder chart, into the Angstrom equation. The surface albedo measurements at Lusaka were used. The scatter in the correlation parameters was investigated by graphical representation, by regression analysis of the data of the individual stations as well as the combined data of the 8 stations. The results show that the incorporation of none of the two effects reduces the scatter significantly. A single linear equation obtained from the regression analysis of the combined data of the 8 stations is found to be appropriate for estimating the global irradiation over Zambian locations with reasonable accuracy from the sunshine duration data. (author)

  6. Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on the Gaussian process regression methodology in the Saharan climate

    Guermoui, Mawloud; Gairaa, Kacem; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Djafer, Djelloul; Benkaciali, Said

    2018-06-01

    Accurate estimation of solar radiation is the major concern in renewable energy applications. Over the past few years, a lot of machine learning paradigms have been proposed in order to improve the estimation performances, mostly based on artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The aim of this work is the prediction of the daily global solar radiation, received on a horizontal surface through the Gaussian process regression (GPR) methodology. A case study of Ghardaïa region (Algeria) has been used in order to validate the above methodology. In fact, several combinations have been tested; it was found that, GPR-model based on sunshine duration, minimum air temperature and relative humidity gives the best results in term of mean absolute bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative mean square error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient ( r) . The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m2, 1.15 MJ/m2, 5.2%, and 98.42%, respectively.

  7. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling.

    McCoy, Dana Charles; Peet, Evan D; Ezzati, Majid; Danaei, Goodarz; Black, Maureen M; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Fawzi, Wafaie; Fink, Günther

    2016-06-01

    The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million) in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y), followed by

  8. Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling.

    Dana Charles McCoy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. In the pooled MICS and DHS sample, 14.6% of children had low ECDI scores in the cognitive domain, 26.2% had low socioemotional scores, and 36.8% performed poorly in either or both domains. Country-level prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional scores on the ECDI was best represented by a model using the HDI as a predictor. Applying this model to all LMICs, we estimate that 80.8 million children ages 3 and 4 y (95% CI 48.1 million, 113.6 million in LMICs experienced low cognitive and/or socioemotional development in 2010, with the largest number of affected children in sub-Saharan Africa (29.4.1 million; 43.8% of children ages 3 and 4 y

  9. DATA ANALYSIS BY FORMAL METHODS OF ESTIMATION OF INDEXES OF RATING CRITERION IN PROCESS OF ACCUMULATION OF DATA ABOUT WORKING OF THE TEACHING STAFF

    Alexey E. Fedoseev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the development of formal methods of assessing the rating criterion exponents. The article deals with the mathematical model, which allows to connect together quantitative rating criterion characteristics, measured in various scales, with intuitive idea of them. The solution to the problem of rating criterion estimation is proposed.

  10. Accumulation of satellites

    Safronov, V.S.; Ruskol, E.L.

    1977-01-01

    Formation and evolution of circumplanetary satellite swarms are investigated. Characteristic times of various processes are estimated. The characteristic time for the accumulation of the bodies in the swarm was several orders of magnitude shorter than that of the planet, i.e. than the time of the replenishment of the material by the swarm (10 8 yr). The model of the accumulation of the swarm is constructed taking into account the increase of its mass due to trapping of heliocentrically moving particles and its decrease due to outfall of the inner part of the swarm onto the growing planet. The accumulation of circumplanetary bodies is also considered. The main features of the evolution of the swarm essentially depend on the size distribution of bodies in the swarm and in the zone of the planet and also on the degree of the concentration of the swarm mass toward the planet. If the sum of the exponents of the inverse power laws of these distributions is less than 7, the model of the transparent swarm developed in this paper should be preferred. When this sum is greater than 7, the model of opaque swarm suggested by A. Harris and W.M. Kaula is better. There is predominant trapping of small particles into the swarm due to their more frequent collisions. Optical thickness of the protoplanetary cloud in radial direction is estimated. It is shown that at the final stage of the planetary accumulation, the cloud was semitransparent in the region of terrestrial planets and volatile substances evaporated at collisions could be swept out from the outer parts of the satellite swarm by the solar wind

  11. Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

    Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/411298119; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

    BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country

  12. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  13. Characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for various GRACE- and GLDAS-born estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage

    Yang, Tao; Wang, Chao; Yu, Zhongbo; Xu, Feng

    2013-10-01

    Since the launch in March 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has provided us with a new method to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations by measuring earth gravity change with unprecedented accuracy. Thus far, a number of standardized GRACE-born TWS products are published by different international research teams. However, no characterization of spatio-temporal patterns for different GRACE hydrology products from the global perspective could be found. It is still a big challenge for the science community to identify the reliable global measurement of TWS anomalies due to our limited knowledge on the true value. Hence, it is urgently necessary to evaluate the uncertainty for various global estimates of the GRACE-born TWS changes by a number of international research organizations. Toward this end, this article presents an in-depth analysis for various GRACE-born and GLDAS-based estimates for changes of global terrestrial water storage. The work characterizes the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, probability density variations, and spatial patterns among different GRACE-born TWS estimates over six major continents, and compares them with results from GLDAS simulations. The underlying causes of inconsistency between GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS estimates are thoroughly analyzed with an aim to improve our current knowledge in monitoring global TWS change. With a comprehensive consideration of the advantages and disadvantages among GRACE- and GLDAS-born TWS anomalies, a summary is thereafter recommended as a rapid reference for scientists, end-users, and policy-makers in the practices of global TWS change research. To our best knowledge, this work is the first attempt to characterize difference and uncertainty among various GRACE-born terrestrial water storage changes over the major continents estimated by a number of international research organizations. The results can provide beneficial reference to usage of

  14. Dynamic model of the global iodine cycle for the estimation of dose to the world population from releases of iodine-129 to the environment

    Kocher, D.C.

    1979-11-01

    A dynamic linear compartment model of the global iodine cycle has been developed for the purpose of estimating long-term doses and dose commitments to the world population from releases of 129 I to the environment. The environmental compartments assumed in the model comprise the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and terrestrial biosphere. The global transport of iodine is described by means of time-invariant fractional transfer rates between the environmental compartments. The fractional transfer rates for 129 I are determined primarily from available data on compartment inventories and fluxes for naturally occurring stable iodine and from data on the global hydrologic cycle. The dose to the world population is estimated from the calculated compartment inventories of 129 I, the known compartment inventories of stable iodine, a pathway analysis of the intake of iodine by a reference individual, dose conversion factors for inhalation and ingestion, and an estimate of the world population. For an assumed constant population of 12.21 billion beyond the year 2075, the estimated population dose commitment is 2 x 10 5 man-rem/Ci. The sensitivity of the calculated doses to variations in some of the parameters in the model for the global iodine cycle is investigated. A computer code written to calculate global compartment inventories and dose rates and population doses is described and documented

  15. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

  16. A comparison of methods to estimate anaerobic capacity: Accumulated oxygen deficit and W' during constant and all-out work-rate profiles.

    Muniz-Pumares, Daniel; Pedlar, Charles; Godfrey, Richard; Glaister, Mark

    2017-12-01

    This study investigated (i) whether the accumulated oxygen deficit (AOD) and curvature constant of the power-duration relationship (W') are different during constant work-rate to exhaustion (CWR) and 3-min all-out (3MT) tests and (ii) the relationship between AOD and W' during CWR and 3MT. Twenty-one male cyclists (age: 40 ± 6 years; maximal oxygen uptake [V̇O 2max ]: 58 ± 7 ml · kg -1 · min -1 ) completed preliminary tests to determine the V̇O 2 -power output relationship and V̇O 2max . Subsequently, AOD and W' were determined as the difference between oxygen demand and oxygen uptake and work completed above critical power, respectively, in CWR and 3MT. There were no differences between tests for duration, work, or average power output (P ≥ 0.05). AOD was greater in the CWR test (4.18 ± 0.95 vs. 3.68 ± 0.98 L; P = 0.004), whereas W' was greater in 3MT (9.55 ± 4.00 vs. 11.37 ± 3.84 kJ; P = 0.010). AOD and W' were significantly correlated in both CWR (P W' in CWR and 3MT, between-test differences in the magnitude of AOD and W', suggest that both measures have different underpinning mechanisms.

  17. Global and regional emissions estimates of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH[subscript 3]CHF[subscript 2]) from in situ and air archive observations

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    2015-01-01

    High frequency, in situ observations from 11 globally distributed sites for the period 1994–2014 and archived air measurements dating from 1978 onward have been used to determine the global growth rate of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH[subscript 3]CHF[subscript 2]). These observations have been combined with a range of atmospheric transport models to derive global emission estimates in a top-down approach. HFC-152a is a greenhouse gas with a short atmospheric lifetime of about 1.5 years. Si...

  18. Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

    Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

    2008-04-01

    We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

  19. Ice Sheet Roughness Estimation Based on Impulse Responses Acquired in the Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter Mission

    Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, J. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Gogineni, P.

    2008-12-01

    The Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter (GISMO) mission was developed to address scientific needs to understand the polar ice subsurface structure. This NASA Instrument Incubator Program project is a collaboration between Ohio State University, the University of Kansas, Vexcel Corporation and NASA. The GISMO design utilizes an interferometric SAR (InSAR) strategy in which ice sheet reflected signals received by a dual-antenna system are used to produce an interference pattern. The resulting interferogram can be used to filter out surface clutter so as to reveal the signals scattered from the base of the ice sheet. These signals are further processed to produce 3D-images representing basal topography of the ice sheet. In the past three years, the GISMO airborne field campaigns that have been conducted provide a set of useful data for studying geophysical properties of the Greenland ice sheet. While topography information can be obtained using interferometric SAR processing techniques, ice sheet roughness statistics can also be derived by a relatively simple procedure that involves analyzing power levels and the shape of the radar impulse response waveforms. An electromagnetic scattering model describing GISMO impulse responses has previously been proposed and validated. This model suggested that rms-heights and correlation lengths of the upper surface profile can be determined from the peak power and the decay rate of the pulse return waveform, respectively. This presentation will demonstrate a procedure for estimating the roughness of ice surfaces by fitting the GISMO impulse response model to retrieved waveforms from selected GISMO flights. Furthermore, an extension of this procedure to estimate the scattering coefficient of the glacier bed will be addressed as well. Planned future applications involving the classification of glacier bed conditions based on the derived scattering coefficients will also be described.

  20. Global analysis of approaches for deriving total water storage changes from GRACE satellites and implications for groundwater storage change estimation

    Long, D.; Scanlon, B. R.; Longuevergne, L.; Chen, X.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing interest in use of GRACE satellites and a variety of new products to monitor changes in total water storage (TWS) underscores the need to assess the reliability of output from different products. The objective of this study was to assess skills and uncertainties of different approaches for processing GRACE data to restore signal losses caused by spatial filtering based on analysis of 1°×1° grid scale data and basin scale data in 60 river basins globally. Results indicate that scaling factors from six land surface models (LSMs), including four models from GLDAS-1 (Noah 2.7, Mosaic, VIC, and CLM 2.0), CLM 4.0, and WGHM, are similar over most humid, sub-humid, and high-latitude regions but can differ by up to 100% over arid and semi-arid basins and areas with intensive irrigation. Large differences in TWS anomalies from three processing approaches (scaling factor, additive, and multiplicative corrections) were found in arid and semi-arid regions, areas with intensive irrigation, and relatively small basins (e.g., ≤ 200,000 km2). Furthermore, TWS anomaly products from gridded data with CLM4.0 scaling factors and the additive correction approach more closely agree with WGHM output than the multiplicative correction approach. Estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites requires caution in selecting an appropriate approach for restoring TWS changes. A priori ground-based data used in forward modeling can provide a powerful tool for explaining the distribution of signal gains or losses caused by low-pass filtering in specific regions of interest and should be very useful for more reliable estimation of groundwater storage changes using GRACE satellites.

  1. Expression of the alaE gene is positively regulated by the global regulator Lrp in response to intracellular accumulation of l-alanine in Escherichia coli.

    Ihara, Kohei; Sato, Kazuki; Hori, Hatsuhiro; Makino, Yumiko; Shigenobu, Shuji; Ando, Tasuke; Isogai, Emiko; Yoneyama, Hiroshi

    2017-04-01

    The alaE gene in Escherichia coli encodes an l-alanine exporter that catalyzes the active export of l-alanine using proton electrochemical potential. In our previous study, alaE expression was shown to increase in the presence of l-alanyl-l-alanine (Ala-Ala). In this study, the global regulator leucine-responsive regulatory protein (Lrp) was identified as an activator of the alaE gene. A promoter less β-galactosidase gene was fused to an alaE upstream region (240 nucleotides). Cells that were lacZ-deficient and harbored this reporter plasmid showed significant induction of β-galactosidase activity (approximately 17-fold) in the presence of 6 mM l-alanine, l-leucine, and Ala-Ala. However, a reporter plasmid possessing a smaller alaE upstream region (180 nucleotides) yielded transformants with strikingly low enzyme activity under the same conditions. In contrast, lrp-deficient cells showed almost no β-galactosidase induction, indicating that Lrp positively regulates alaE expression. We next performed an electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and a DNase I footprinting assay using purified hexahistidine-tagged Lrp (Lrp-His). Consequently, we found that Lrp-His binds to the alaE upstream region spanning nucleotide -161 to -83 with a physiologically relevant affinity (apparent K D , 288.7 ± 83.8 nM). Furthermore, the binding affinity of Lrp-His toward its cis-element was increased by l-alanine and l-leucine, but not by Ala-Ala and d-alanine. Based on these results, we concluded that the gene expression of the alaE is regulated by Lrp in response to intracellular levels of l-alanine, which eventually leads to intracellular homeostasis of l-alanine concentrations. Copyright © 2016 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Impact of Precipitating Ice Hydrometeors on Longwave Radiative Effect Estimated by a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model

    Chen, Ying-Wen; Seiki, Tatsuya; Kodama, Chihiro; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.

    2018-02-01

    Satellite observation and general circulation model (GCM) studies suggest that precipitating ice makes nonnegligible contributions to the radiation balance of the Earth. However, in most GCMs, precipitating ice is diagnosed and its radiative effects are not taken into account. Here we examine the longwave radiative impact of precipitating ice using a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model with a double-moment cloud microphysics scheme. An off-line radiation model is employed to determine cloud radiative effects according to the amount and altitude of each type of ice hydrometeor. Results show that the snow radiative effect reaches 2 W m-2 in the tropics, which is about half the value estimated by previous studies. This effect is strongly dependent on the vertical separation of ice categories and is partially generated by differences in terminal velocities, which are not represented in GCMs with diagnostic precipitating ice. Results from sensitivity experiments that artificially change the categories and altitudes of precipitating ice show that the simulated longwave heating profile and longwave radiation field are sensitive to the treatment of precipitating ice in models. This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating appropriate treatments for the radiative effects of precipitating ice in cloud and radiation schemes in GCMs in order to capture the cloud radiative effects of upper level clouds.

  3. River routing at the continental scale: use of globally-available data and an a priori method of parameter estimation

    P. Naden

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Two applications of a river routing model based on the observed river network and a linearised solution to the convective-diffusion equation are presented. One is an off-line application to part of the Amazon basin (catchment area 2.15 M km2 using river network data from the Digital Chart of the World and GCM-generated runoff at a grid resolution of 2.5 degrees latitude and 3.75 degrees longitude. The other application is to the Arkansas (409,000 km2 and Red River (125,500 km2 basins as an integrated component of a macro-scale hydrological model, driven by observed meteorology and operating on a 17 km grid. This second application makes use of the US EPA reach data to construct the river network. In both cases, a method of computing parameter values a priori has been applied and shows some success, although some interpretation is required to derive `correct' parameter values and further work is needed to develop guidelines for use of the method. The applications, however, do demonstrate the possibilities for applying the routing model at the continental scale, with globally-available data and a priori parameter estimation, and its value for validating GCM output against observed flows.