Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

1998-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the GISS 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric GCM to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Direct stratospheric injection of biomass burning emissions: a case study of the 2009 Australian bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Robert; From, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Flannigan, Mike; Bernath, Peter

2014-05-01

Direct stratospheric injection (DSI) of forest fire smoke represents a direct biogeochemical link between the land surface and stratosphere. DSI events occur regularly in the northern and southern extratropics, and have been observed across a wide range of measurements, but their fate and effects are not well understood. DSIs result from explosive, short-lived fires, and their plumes stand out from background concentrations immediately. This makes it easier to associate detected DSIs to individual fires and their estimated emissions. Because the emissions pulses are brief, chemical decay can be more clearly assessed, and because the emissions pulses are so large, a wide range of rare chemical species can be detected. Observational evidence suggests that they can persist in the stratosphere for several months, enhance ozone production, and be self-lofted to the middle stratosphere through shortwave absorption and diabatic heating. None of these phenomena have been evaluated, however, with a physical model. To that end, we are simulating the smoke plumes from the February 2009 Australia 'Black Saturday' bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model, nudged toward horizontal winds from reanalysis. To-date, this is the best-observed DSI in the southern hemisphere. Chemical and aerosol signatures of the plume were observed in a wide array of limb and nadir satellite retrievals. Detailed estimates of fuel consumption and injection height have been made because of the severity of the fires. Uncommon among DSIs events was a large segment of the plume that entrained into the upper equatorial easterlies. Preliminary modeling results show that the relative strengths of the equatorial and extratropical plume segments are sensitive to the plume's initial injection height. This highlights the difficulty in reconciling uncertainty in the reanalysis over the Southern Hemisphere with fairly-well constrained estimates of fire location and injection height at the

Assessing modeled Greenland surface mass balance in the GISS Model E2 and its sensitivity to surface albedo

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Patrick; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Koenig, Lora S.; Tedesco, Marco; Moustafa, Samiah E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Fischer, Robert P.; Fettweis, Xavier

2016-04-01

The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in global sea level change. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) such as the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) have been employed at high spatial resolution with relatively complex physics to simulate ice sheet SMB. Global climate models (GCMs) incorporate less sophisticated physical schemes and provide outputs at a lower spatial resolution, but have the advantage of modeling the interaction between different components of the earth's oceans, climate, and land surface at a global scale. Improving the ability of GCMs to represent ice sheet SMB is important for making predictions of future changes in global sea level. With the ultimate goal of improving SMB simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 GCM, we compare simulated GrIS SMB against the outputs of the MAR model and radar-derived estimates of snow accumulation. In order to reproduce present-day climate variability in the Model E2 simulation, winds are constrained to match the reanalysis datasets used to force MAR at the lateral boundaries. We conduct a preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the simulated Model E2 SMB to surface albedo, a parameter that is known to strongly influence SMB. Model E2 albedo is set to a fixed value of 0.8 over the entire ice sheet in the initial configuration of the model (control case). We adjust this fixed value in an ensemble of simulations over a range of 0.4 to 0.8 (roughly the range of observed summer GrIS albedo values) to examine the sensitivity of ice-sheet-wide SMB to albedo. We prescribe albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A3 v6 to examine the impact of a more realistic spatial and temporal variations in albedo. An age-dependent snow albedo parameterization is applied, and its impact on SMB relative to observations and the RCM is assessed.

Interactive ozone and methane chemistry in GISS-E2 historical and future climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. T. Shindell

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the large-scale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016 W m−2. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18 W m−2 higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

2013-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led

Animating climate model data

Science.gov (United States)

DaPonte, John S.; Sadowski, Thomas; Thomas, Paul

2006-05-01

This paper describes a collaborative project conducted by the Computer Science Department at Southern Connecticut State University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS). Animations of output from a climate simulation math model used at GISS to predict rainfall and circulation have been produced for West Africa from June to September 2002. These early results have assisted scientists at GISS in evaluating the accuracy of the RM3 climate model when compared to similar results obtained from satellite imagery. The results presented below will be refined to better meet the needs of GISS scientists and will be expanded to cover other geographic regions for a variety of time frames.

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

DelGenio, Anthony G.; Chen, Yonghua; Kim, Daehyun; Yao, Mao-Sung

2013-01-01

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

Using long-term ARM observations to evaluate Arctic mixed-phased cloud representation in the GISS ModelE GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Luke, E. P.; Tselioudis, G.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2016-12-01

The presence of supercooled liquid in clouds affects surface radiative and hydrological budgets, especially at high latitudes. Capturing these effects is crucial to properly quantifying climate sensitivity. Currently, a number of CGMs disagree on the distribution of cloud phase. Adding to the challenge is a general lack of observations on the continuum of clouds, from high to low-level and from warm to cold. In the current study, continuous observations from 2011 to 2014 are used to evaluate all clouds produced by the GISS ModelE GCM over the ARM North Slope of Alaska site. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Global Weather State (GWS) approach reveals that fair-weather (GWS 7, 32% occurrence rate), as well as mid-level storm related (GWS 5, 28%) and polar (GWS 4, 14%) clouds, dominate the large-scale cloud patterns at this high latitude site. At higher spatial and temporal resolutions, ground-based cloud radar observations reveal a majority of single layer cloud vertical structures (CVS). While clear sky and low-level clouds dominate (each with 30% occurrence rate) a fair amount of shallow ( 10%) to deep ( 5%) convection are observed. Cloud radar Doppler spectra are used along with depolarization lidar observations in a neural network approach to detect the presence, layering and inhomogeneity of supercooled liquid layers. Preliminary analyses indicate that most of the low-level clouds sampled contain one or more supercooled liquid layers. Furthermore, the relationship between CVS and the presence of supercooled liquid is established, as is the relationship between the presence of supercool liquid and precipitation susceptibility. Two approaches are explored to bridge the gap between large footprint GCM simulations and high-resolution ground-based observations. The first approach consists of comparing model output and ground-based observations that exhibit the same column CVS type (i.e. same cloud depth, height and layering

Impact of improved Greenland ice sheet surface representation in the NASA GISS ModelE2 GCM on simulated surface mass balance and regional climate

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, P. M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Fischer, E.; Tedesco, M.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.; Fettweis, X.

2017-12-01

Towards achieving coupled simulations between the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 general circulation model (GCM) and ice sheet models (ISMs), improvements have been made to the representation of the ice sheet surface in ModelE2. These include a sub-grid-scale elevation class scheme, a multi-layer snow model, a time-variable surface albedo scheme, and adjustments to parameterization of sublimation/evaporation. These changes improve the spatial resolution and physical representation of the ice sheet surface such that the surface is represented at a level of detail closer to that of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We assess the impact of these changes on simulated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB). We also compare ModelE2 simulations in which winds have been nudged to match the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis with simulations from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM forced by the same reanalysis. Adding surface elevation classes results in a much higher spatial resolution representation of the surface necessary for coupling with ISMs, but has a negligible impact on overall SMB. Implementing a variable surface albedo scheme increases melt by 100%, bringing it closer to melt simulated by MAR. Adjustments made to the representation of topography-influenced surface roughness length in ModelE2 reduce a positive bias in evaporation relative to MAR. We also examine the impact of changes to the GrIS surface on regional atmospheric and oceanic climate in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations with ModelE2, finding a general warming of the Arctic due to a warmer GrIS, and a cooler North Atlantic in scenarios with doubled atmospheric CO2 relative to pre-industrial levels. The substantial influence of changes to the GrIS surface on the oceans and atmosphere highlight the importance of including these processes in the GCM, in view of potential feedbacks between the ice sheet

Multiple GISS AGCM Hindcasts and MSU Versions of 1979-1998

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Kathryn Pierce; Rind, David; Druyan, Leonard; Lonergan, Patrick; Chandler, Mark

1998-01-01

Multiple realizations of the 1979-1998 time period have been simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GISS AGCM) to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM's lower tropospheric, tropospheric and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with the various Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) time series available. MSU maps of monthly means and anomalies were also used to assess the AGCM's mean annual cycle and regional variability. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced by observed sea surface temperatures (sst) through 1992 to gather rough standard deviations associated with internal model variability. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1979 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed ssts, greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols. stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The goal of narrowing gaps between AGCM and MSU time series was complicated by MSU time series, by Tb simulation concerns and by unforced climatic variability in the AGCM and in the real world. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.91 +/-0.16 globally with sst, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, stratospheric ozone forcings and tropospheric aerosols. Mid-tropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 +/-.04 globally and 0.84 +/-.02 in the tropics. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations similarly reached 0.61 +/-.06 globally and 0.79 +/-.02 in the tropics. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with mid-tropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.75 +/- .03. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern mid-latitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-sst variability. Zimbabwe

Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

2007-03-26

We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

Evaluation of methane emissions from West Siberian wetlands based on inverse modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, H-S; Inoue, G [Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-4 Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-ku, Kyoto 603-8047 (Japan); Maksyutov, S; Machida, T [National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 (Japan); Glagolev, M V [Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Patra, P K [Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-cho, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001 (Japan); Sudo, K, E-mail: heonsook.kim@gmail.com [Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan)

2011-07-15

West Siberia contains the largest extent of wetlands in the world, including large peat deposits; the wetland area is equivalent to 27% of the total area of West Siberia. This study used inverse modeling to refine emissions estimates for West Siberia using atmospheric CH{sub 4} observations and two wetland CH{sub 4} emissions inventories: (1) the global wetland emissions dataset of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (the GISS inventory), which includes emission seasons and emission rates based on climatology of monthly surface air temperature and precipitation, and (2) the West Siberian wetland emissions data (the Bc7 inventory), based on in situ flux measurements and a detailed wetland classification. The two inversions using the GISS and Bc7 inventories estimated annual mean flux from West Siberian wetlands to be 2.9 {+-} 1.7 and 3.0 {+-} 1.4 Tg yr{sup -1}, respectively, which are lower than the 6.3 Tg yr{sup -1} predicted in the GISS inventory, but similar to those of the Bc7 inventory (3.2 Tg yr{sup -1}). The well-constrained monthly fluxes and a comparison between the predicted CH{sub 4} concentrations in the two inversions suggest that the Bc7 inventory predicts the seasonal cycle of West Siberian wetland CH{sub 4} emissions more reasonably, indicating that the GISS inventory predicts more emissions from wetlands in northern and middle taiga.

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A; LeGrande, Allegra N; Nazarenko, Larissa; Shindell, Drew; Bonfils, Céline; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2015-01-01

Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings. However, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to different forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to differences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments. (letter)

Software Engineering Tools for Scientific Models

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Marc; Saboo, Pallabi; Sonsini, Mike

2013-01-01

Software tools were constructed to address issues the NASA Fortran development community faces, and they were tested on real models currently in use at NASA. These proof-of-concept tools address the High-End Computing Program and the Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program. Two examples are the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model in Cell Fortran on the Cell Broadband Engine, and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled atmosphere- ocean model called ModelE, written in fixed format Fortran.

Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Hongyu [National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA (United States); Considine, David B. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States); Horowitz, Larry W. [NOAA Geophysical Fluid and Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States); and others

2016-07-01

We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 ({sup 7}Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric {sup 7}Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II{sup '} GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere (UT/LS) {sup 7}Be climatology constructed from ∝ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the {sup 7}Be simulations with observationally derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at mid-latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II{sup '} meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate {sup 7}Be deposition fluxes at mid-latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II{sup '}), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of {sup 7}Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on {sup 7}Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We conclude that the observational constraints for {sup 7}Be and observed {sup 7}Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.

Incorporating GISs (geographic information systems) into decision support systems: Where have we come from and where do we need to go

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honea, R.B.; Hake, K.A.; Durfee, R.C.

1990-01-01

This paper reviews some of the pitfalls in the design and use of GISs that were encountered with both large and small projects for a variety of sponsors. The stand-alone, self-sufficient GIS world prevalent today does not adequately meet the needs of decision support systems. Developers of these systems are left with the difficult task of software system integration which generally produces less than adequate results. Modularization of GIS concepts is critical to the solution which involves the establishment of a GIS toolkit. More functionality and flexibility are introduced through this approach so that GIS may be truly applied'' in system development projects.

Using Self Organizing Maps to evaluate the NASA GISS AR5 SCM at the ARM SGP Site

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, X.; Kennedy, A. D.; Xi, B.

2010-12-01

Cluster analyses have gained popularity in recent years to establish cloud regimes using satellite and radar cloud data. These regimes can then be used to evaluate climate models or to determine what large-scale or subgrid processes are responsible for cloud formation. An alternative approach is to first classify the meteorological regimes (i.e. synoptic pattern and forcing) and then determine what cloud scenes occur. In this study, a competitive neural network known as the Self Organizing Map (SOM) is used to classify synoptic patterns over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region to evaluate simulated clouds from the AR5 version of the NASA GISS Model E Single Column Model (SCM). In detail, 54-class SOMs have been developed using North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) variables averaged to 2x2.5 degree latitude longitude grid boxes for a region of 7x7 grid boxes centered on the ARM SGP site. Variables input into the SOM include mean sea-level pressure and the horizontal wind components, relative humidity, and geopotential height at the 900, 500, and 300 hPa levels. These SOMs are produced for the winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), and fall (SON) seasons during 1999-2001. This synoptic typing will be associated with observed cloud fractions and forcing properties from the ARM SGP site and then used to evaluate simulated clouds from the SCM. SOMs provide a visually intuitive way to understand their classifications because classes are related to each other in a two-dimensional space. In Fig. 1 for example, the reader can easily see for a 54 class SOM during the winter season, classes with higher 300 hPa mean relative humidities are clustered near each other. This allows for the user to identify that there appears to be a relationship between mean 300 hPa RH and high cloud fraction as observed by the ARM SGP site. Figure 1. Mean high cloud fraction (top panel) and 300 hPa Relative Humidity (bottom panel) for a 9x6 (54 class) SOM during the winter (DJF) season

MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state): an aerosol microphysical module for global atmospheric models

OpenAIRE

Bauer , S. E.; Wright , D.; Koch , D.; Lewis , E. R.; Mcgraw , R.; Chang , L.-S.; Schwartz , S. E.; Ruedy , R.

2008-01-01

A new aerosol microphysical module MATRIX, the Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, and its application in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE) are described. This module, which is based on the quadrature method of moments (QMOM), represents nucleation, condensation, coagulation, internal and external mixing, and cloud-drop activation and provides aerosol particle mass and number concentration and particle size information for up to 16 mixed-mod...

Assessing ocean vertical mixing schemes for the study of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, A. M.; Lindo, F.; Fells, J.; Tulsee, V.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.

2014-12-01

Climate change is a burning issue of our time. It is critical to know the consequences of choosing "business as usual" vs. mitigating our emissions for impacts e.g. ecosystem disruption, sea-level rise, floods and droughts. To make predictions we must model realistically each component of the climate system. The ocean must be modeled carefully as it plays a critical role, including transporting heat and storing heat and dissolved carbon dioxide. Modeling the ocean realistically in turn requires physically based parameterizations of key processes in it that cannot be explicitly represented in a global climate model. One such process is vertical mixing. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS has developed a comprehensive new vertical mixing scheme (GISSVM) based on turbulence theory, including surface convection and wind shear, interior waves and double-diffusion, and bottom tides. The GISSVM is tested in stand-alone ocean simulations before being used in coupled climate models. It is also being upgraded to more faithfully represent the physical processes. To help assess mixing schemes, students use data from NASA-GISS to create visualizations and calculate statistics including mean bias and rms differences and correlations of fields. These are created and programmed with MATLAB. Results with the commonly used KPP mixing scheme and the present GISSVM and candidate improved variants of GISSVM will be compared between stand-alone ocean models and coupled models and observations. This project introduces students to modeling of a complex system, an important theme in contemporary science and helps them gain a better appreciation of climate science and a new perspective on it. They also gain familiarity with MATLAB, a widely used tool, and develop skills in writing and understanding programs. Moreover they contribute to the advancement of science by providing information that will help guide the improvement of the GISSVM and hence of ocean and climate models and ultimately our

Climate and transboundary water management issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjonback, D.

1991-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on transboundary river systems, major water uses, interjurisdictional arrangements, and water issues affecting water management in the Great Plains of Canada are discussed. Three atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) have been applied for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario for the Saskatchewan River system. The models were the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, and the Oregon State University (OSU) model. For all models, soil moisture on the plains was reduced. The GISS model predicted slightly higher runoff for plains-originating streams, and a substantial increase in runoff (32%) in the Rockies. The GFDL model predicted lower runoffs in the plains and Rockies, with some locations near the Alberta-Saskatchewan border indicating zero runoff. The OSU model results generally bracketed the GISS and GFDL results, with total runoff approximating 1951-1980 mean. The GISS model indicated an increase in net basin supply of 28%, while the GFDL model, due to lower runoff and high soil moisture defecits, showed a decrease of 38%. For policy making, monitoring, and research, the GFDL model results can provide important guidelines. Greater attention to demand management and conservation will have short-term benefits in stretching the limited water resource base to support a larger economy, while providing flexibility to cope with future climate as it evolves. 1 ref

Assessing and Upgrading Ocean Mixing for the Study of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Lindo, F.; Tulsee, V.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Dubovikov, M. S.; Leboissetier, A.

2016-12-01

Climate is critical. Climate variability affects us all; Climate Change is a burning issue. Droughts, floods, other extreme events, and Global Warming's effects on these and problems such as sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption threaten lives. Citizens must be informed to make decisions concerning climate such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to keep warming within bounds. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. To make useful predictions we must realistically model each component of the climate system, including the ocean, whose critical role includes transporting&storing heat and dissolved CO2. We need physically based parameterizations of key ocean processes that can't be put explicitly in a global climate model, e.g. vertical&lateral mixing. The NASA-GISS turbulence group uses theory to model mixing including: 1) a comprehensive scheme for small scale vertical mixing, including convection&shear, internal waves & double-diffusion, and bottom tides 2) a new parameterization for the lateral&vertical mixing by mesoscale eddies. For better understanding we write our own programs. To assess the modelling MATLAB programs visualize and calculate statistics, including means, standard deviations and correlations, on NASA-GISS OGCM output with different mixing schemes and help us study drift from observations. We also try to upgrade the schemes, e.g. the bottom tidal mixing parameterizations' roughness, calculated from high resolution topographic data using Gaussian weighting functions with cut-offs. We study the effects of their parameters to improve them. A FORTRAN program extracts topography data subsets of manageable size for a MATLAB program, tested on idealized cases, to visualize&calculate roughness on. Students are introduced to modeling a complex system, gain a deeper appreciation of climate science, programming skills and familiarity with MATLAB, while furthering climate

The dependence of the oceans MOC on mesoscale eddy diffusivities: A model study

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, John; Scott, Jeffery R.; Romanou, Anastasia; Kelley, Maxwell; Leboissetier, Anthony

2017-01-01

The dependence of the depth and strength of the ocean's global meridional overturning cells (MOC) on the specification of mesoscale eddy diffusivity (K) is explored in two ocean models. The GISS and MIT ocean models are driven by the same prescribed forcing fields, configured in similar ways, spun up to equilibrium for a range of K 's and the resulting MOCs mapped and documented. Scaling laws implicit in modern theories of the MOC are used to rationalize the results. In all calculations the K used in the computation of eddy-induced circulation and that used in the representation of eddy stirring along neutral surfaces, is set to the same value but is changed across experiments. We are able to connect changes in the strength and depth of the Atlantic MOC, the southern ocean upwelling MOC, and the deep cell emanating from Antarctica, to changes in K.

Using In Situ Observations and Satellite Retrievals to Constrain Large-Eddy Simulations and Single-Column Simulations: Implications for Boundary-Layer Cloud Parameterization in the NASA GISS GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Remillard, J.

2015-12-01

Two low-cloud periods from the CAP-MBL deployment of the ARM Mobile Facility at the Azores are selected through a cluster analysis of ISCCP cloud property matrices, so as to represent two low-cloud weather states that the GISS GCM severely underpredicts not only in that region but also globally. The two cases represent (1) shallow cumulus clouds occurring in a cold-air outbreak behind a cold front, and (2) stratocumulus clouds occurring when the region was dominated by a high-pressure system. Observations and MERRA reanalysis are used to derive specifications used for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column model (SCM) simulations. The LES captures the major differences in horizontal structure between the two low-cloud fields, but there are unconstrained uncertainties in cloud microphysics and challenges in reproducing W-band Doppler radar moments. The SCM run on the vertical grid used for CMIP-5 runs of the GCM does a poor job of representing the shallow cumulus case and is unable to maintain an overcast deck in the stratocumulus case, providing some clues regarding problems with low-cloud representation in the GCM. SCM sensitivity tests with a finer vertical grid in the boundary layer show substantial improvement in the representation of cloud amount for both cases. GCM simulations with CMIP-5 versus finer vertical gridding in the boundary layer are compared with observations. The adoption of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme in the GCM is also tested in this framework. The methodology followed in this study, with the process-based examination of different time and space scales in both models and observations, represents a prototype for GCM cloud parameterization improvements.

Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Science.gov (United States)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Evaluating Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations From Prognostic Dust Minerals in an Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Perlwitz, J. P.; Knopf, D. A.; Fridlind, A. M.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; DeMott, P. J.

2016-12-01

The effect of aerosol particles on the radiative properties of clouds, the so-called, indirect effect of aerosols, is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. The distribution of water vapor, precipitation, and ice cloud formation are influenced by the atmospheric ice formation, thereby modulating cloud albedo and thus climate. It is well known that different particle types possess different ice formation propensities with mineral dust being a superior ice nucleating particle (INP) compared to soot particles. Furthermore, some dust mineral types are more proficient INP than others, depending on temperature and relative humidity.In recent work, we have presented an improved dust aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2 with prognostic mineral composition of the dust aerosols. Thus, there are regional variations in dust composition. We evaluated the predicted mineral fractions of dust aerosols by comparing them to measurements from a compilation of about 60 published literature references. Additionally, the capability of the model to reproduce the elemental composition of the simulated dusthas been tested at Izana Observatory at Tenerife, Canary Islands, which is located off-shore of Africa and where frequent dust events are observed. We have been able to show that the new approach delivers a robust improvement of the predicted mineral fractions and elemental composition of dust.In the current study, we use three-dimensional dust mineral fields and thermodynamic conditions, which are simulated using GISS ModelE, to calculate offline the INP concentrations derived using different ice nucleation parameterizations that are currently discussed. We evaluate the calculated INP concentrations from the different parameterizations by comparing them to INP concentrations from field measurements.

The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in

No Smoke Without Fire: the hidden costs of early life exposure to landscape fire emissions in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Jina, A.; Marlier, M. E.

2012-12-01

Air pollution from landscape fire emissions can have devastating effects upon public health. The consequent health costs place a burden upon the economies of many nations, particularly in developing countries. Recent research has assessed contemporaneous mortality due to respiratory infections or cardiovascular disease, but little has looked at the potential long-term consequences and hidden costs of exposure to fire pollution at a population scale. The difficulty of quantifying these costs is partly due to incomplete or inaccurate health data in many developing countries, and is further compounded by sparse air pollution monitoring data. While satellite data partially compensates for this, there can still be significant gaps in data availability and difficulty in retrieving surface concentrations. In this study, we demonstrate the dramatic long-term health and human development consequences of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure by using modeled PM2.5 to quantify repeated exposure to landscape fire emissions in Indonesia, which is prone to large, catastrophic fires during El Niño conditions. Surface PM2.5 concentrations at 2x2.5° resolution are obtained from GISS-E2-Puccini (the new version of the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model), run with monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). 24-hour ambient PM2.5 concentrations across Indonesia are matched to geographically and socioeconomically representative longitudinal surveys conducted by the Indonesian government. We find important medium- to long-term morbidity associated with early life exposure to ambient air pollution from fire emissions. Our analysis indicates that children exposed to high levels of PM2.5 in utero are more likely to suffer from impaired physical and cognitive development. A one standard deviation increase in ambient air pollution, derived from the GISS-E2-Puccini model, leads to effects that are directly comparable to those from indoor air

Projected effect of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport

Science.gov (United States)

We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × ...

Evaluation of Aerosol Mixing State Classes in the GISS Modele-matrix Climate Model Using Single-particle Mass Spectrometry Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Ault, Andrew; Prather, Kimberly A.

2013-01-01

Aerosol particles in the atmosphere are composed of multiple chemical species. The aerosol mixing state, which describes how chemical species are mixed at the single-particle level, provides critical information on microphysical characteristics that determine the interaction of aerosols with the climate system. The evaluation of mixing state has become the next challenge. This study uses aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ATOFMS) data and compares the results to those of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies modelE-MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state) model, a global climate model that includes a detailed aerosol microphysical scheme. We use data from field campaigns that examine a variety of air mass regimens (urban, rural, and maritime). At all locations, polluted areas in California (Riverside, La Jolla, and Long Beach), a remote location in the Sierra Nevada Mountains (Sugar Pine) and observations from Jeju (South Korea), the majority of aerosol species are internally mixed. Coarse aerosol particles, those above 1 micron, are typically aged, such as coated dust or reacted sea-salt particles. Particles below 1 micron contain large fractions of organic material, internally-mixed with sulfate and black carbon, and few external mixtures. We conclude that observations taken over multiple weeks characterize typical air mass types at a given location well; however, due to the instrumentation, we could not evaluate mass budgets. These results represent the first detailed comparison of single-particle mixing states in a global climate model with real-time single-particle mass spectrometry data, an important step in improving the representation of mixing state in global climate models.

Impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, S J

1986-01-01

Scenarios of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

Digital terrain data base - new possibilities of 3D terrain modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mateja Rihtaršič

1992-12-01

Full Text Available GISs has brought new dimensions in the field of digital terrain modelling, too. Modem DTMs must be real (relational databases with high degree of "intelligence". This paper presents some of the demands, ivhich have to be solved in modern digital terrain databases, together with main steps of their's generation. Problems, connected to regional level, multi-pur pose use, new possibilities and direct integration into GIS are presented. The practical model was created across smaller test area, so few lines with practical experiences can be droped, too.

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

2014-05-01

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state: an aerosol microphysical module for global atmospheric models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. E. Bauer

2008-10-01

Full Text Available A new aerosol microphysical module MATRIX, the Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, and its application in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS climate model (ModelE are described. This module, which is based on the quadrature method of moments (QMOM, represents nucleation, condensation, coagulation, internal and external mixing, and cloud-drop activation and provides aerosol particle mass and number concentration and particle size information for up to 16 mixed-mode aerosol populations. Internal and external mixing among aerosol components sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, carbonaceous aerosols, dust and sea-salt particles are represented. The solubility of each aerosol population, which is explicitly calculated based on its soluble and insoluble components, enables calculation of the dependence of cloud drop activation on the microphysical characterization of multiple soluble aerosol populations.

A detailed model description and results of box-model simulations of various aerosol population configurations are presented. The box model experiments demonstrate the dependence of cloud activating aerosol number concentration on the aerosol population configuration; comparisons to sectional models are quite favorable. MATRIX is incorporated into the GISS climate model and simulations are carried out primarily to assess its performance/efficiency for global-scale atmospheric model application. Simulation results were compared with aircraft and station measurements of aerosol mass and number concentration and particle size to assess the ability of the new method to yield data suitable for such comparison. The model accurately captures the observed size distributions in the Aitken and accumulation modes up to particle diameter 1 μm, in which sulfate, nitrate, black and organic carbon are predominantly located; however the model underestimates coarse-mode number concentration and size, especially in the marine environment

Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Trail

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María C Valverde

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

1975-01-01

Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

2018-03-01

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model. 2; New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Grenfell, J. Lee; Shindell, D. T.; Koch, D.; Rind, D.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

Evaluation and Improvement of Cloud and Convective Parameterizations from Analyses of ARM Observations and Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Del Genio, Anthony D. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)

2016-03-11

Over this period the PI and his performed a broad range of data analysis, model evaluation, and model improvement studies using ARM data. These included cloud regimes in the TWP and their evolution over the MJO; M-PACE IOP SCM-CRM intercomparisons; simulations of convective updraft strength and depth during TWP-ICE; evaluation of convective entrainment parameterizations using TWP-ICE simulations; evaluation of GISS GCM cloud behavior vs. long-term SGP cloud statistics; classification of aerosol semi-direct effects on cloud cover; depolarization lidar constraints on cloud phase; preferred states of the winter Arctic atmosphere, surface, and sub-surface; sensitivity of convection to tropospheric humidity; constraints on the parameterization of mesoscale organization from TWP-ICE WRF simulations; updraft and downdraft properties in TWP-ICE simulated convection; insights from long-term ARM records at Manus and Nauru.

A Model for Undergraduate and High School Student Research in Earth and Space Sciences: The New York City Research Initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Scalzo, F.; Johnson, L.; Marchese, P.

2006-05-01

The New York City Research Initiative (NYCRI) is a research and academic program that involves high school students, undergraduate and graduate students, and high school teachers in research teams that are led by college/university principal investigators of NASA funded projects and/or NASA scientists. The principal investigators are at 12 colleges/universities within a 50-mile radius of New York City (NYC and surrounding counties, Southern Connecticut and Northern New Jersey), as well as the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS). This program has a summer research institute component in Earth Science and Space Science, and an academic year component that includes the formulation and implementation NASA research based learning units in existing STEM courses by high school and college faculty. NYCRI is a revision and expansion of the Institute on Climate and Planets at GISS and is funded by NASA MURED and the Goddard Space Flight Center's Education Office.

Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

2014-01-01

Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

1988-04-01

The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

Predictive mapping of soil organic carbon in wet cultivated lands using classification-tree based models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kheir, Rania Bou; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog; Bøcher, Peder Klith

2010-01-01

the geographic distribution of SOC across Denmark using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GISs) and decision-tree modeling (un-pruned and pruned classification trees). Seventeen parameters, i.e. parent material, soil type, landscape type, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, mean curvature...... field measurements in the area of interest (Denmark). A large number of tree-based classification models (588) were developed using (i) all of the parameters, (ii) all Digital Elevation Model (DEM) parameters only, (iii) the primary DEM parameters only, (iv), the remote sensing (RS) indices only, (v......) selected pairs of parameters, (vi) soil type, parent material and landscape type only, and (vii) the parameters having a high impact on SOC distribution in built pruned trees. The best constructed classification tree models (in the number of three) with the lowest misclassification error (ME...

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-01-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Latto

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical–subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air–sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown

A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenlong Li

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

Climatic change in the Great Plains region of Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizzo, B.

1991-01-01

Implications of global warming to Canada's Great Plains region are discussed, with reference to the climate predictions of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model under a two times atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Two sets of climate variables for a geographic area located in the Great Plains are tabulated, for the current (1951-1980) climate normals and under the doubled carbon dioxide scenario. Simple univariate statistics were calculated for the two areas, for the variables of mean annual temperature, mean summer temperature, mean winter temperature, mean July temperature, mean growing season temperature, total annual precipitation, total summer precipitation, total winter precipitation, and total growing season precipitation. Under the GISS scenario, temperature values are on average 4 degree C higher than 1951-1980 normals, while precipitation remains about the same. Locations of ecoclimatic regions are graphed for the whole of Canada. 1 fig., 1 tab

Origin, extent and health impacts of air pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, S.; Im, U.; Mezuman, K.

2017-12-01

Southern Africa produces about a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles, their origin, chemical composition and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. These research questions motivated the NASA field campaign ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS). ORACLES is a five year investigation with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP) designed to study key processes that determine the climate impacts of African biomass burning aerosols. The first IOP has been carried out in 2016. The main focus of the field campaign are aerosol-cloud interactions, however in our first study related to this area we will investigate the aerosol plume itself, its origin, extend and its resulting health impacts. Here we will discuss results using the global mesoscale model NASA GEOS-5 in conjunction with the NASA GISS-E2 climate model to investigate climate and health impacts that are directly related to the anthropogenic fire activities in Sub-Saharan Africa. Focus will be on the SH winter seasons biomass burning events, its contribution to Sub-Saharan air pollution in relationship to other air-pollution sources and its resulting premature mortality.

Origin, extend and health impacts of air pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Mezuman, Keren; Longo, Karla; da Silva, Arlindo

2017-04-01

Southern Africa produces about a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles, their origin, chemical composition and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. These research questions motivated the NASA field campaign ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS). ORACLES is a five year investigation with three Intensive Observation Periods (IOP) designed to study key processes that determine the climate impacts of African biomass burning aerosols. The first IOP has been carried out in 2016. The main focus of the field campaign are aerosol-cloud interactions, however in our first study related to this area we will investigate the aerosol plume itself, its origin, extend and its resulting health impacts. Here we will discuss results using the global mesoscale model NASA GEOS-5 in conjunction with the NASA GISS-E2 climate model to investigate climate and health impacts that are directly related to the anthropogenic fire activities in Sub-Saharan Africa. Focus will be on the SH winter seasons biomass burning events, its contribution to Sub-Saharan air pollution in relationship to other air-pollution sources and its resulting premature mortality.

Building Materials, Ionizing Radiation and HBIM: A Case Study from Pompei (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pasquale Argenziano

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a different point of view on the conservation of the built heritage, adding ionizing radiation to the most well-known digital documentation dataset. Igneous building materials characterize most of the built heritage in the Campania region, and in a large part of southern Italy. The ionizing radiations proceeding from these materials can produce stochastic biological effects on the exposed living beings. The research team designed and tested a technical-scientific protocol to survey and analyse this natural phenomenon in association with the use of geological material for building purposes. Geographical Information Systems (GISs, City Information Modelling (CIM, and Building Information Modelling (BIM are the digital tools used to manage the construction entities and their characteristics, and then to represent the thematic data as false-colour images. The emission spectra of fair-faced or plastered materials as a fingerprint of their nature is proposed as a non-invasive method. Due to both the huge presence of historical buildings and an intense touristic flow, the main square of Pompei has been selected as a study area.

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Towards a digital watershed, with a case study in the Heihe River Basin of northwest China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.; Cheng, G.-D.; Ma, M.-G.; Lu, L.; Ge, Y.-C.

2003-04-01

Integrated watershed study and river basin management needs integrated database and integrated hydrological and water resource models. We define digital watershed as a web-based information system that integrates data from different sources and in different scales through both information technology and hydrological modeling. In the last two years, a “digital basin” of the Heihe River Basin, which is a well-studied in-land catchment in China’s arid region was established. More than 6 Gb of in situ observation data, GIS maps, and remotely sensed data have been uploaded to the Heihe web site. Various database and dynamic web techniques such as PHP, ASP, XML, VRML are being used for data service. In addition, the DIAL (Data and Information Access Link), IMS (Internet Map Server) and other Web-GISs are used to make GIS and remote sensing datasets of the Heihe River Basin available and accessible on the Internet. We also have developed models for estimating the evapotranspiration, bio-physical parameters, and snow runoff. These methods can be considered as the elements to build up the integrated watershed model that can be used for integrated management of the Heihe River Basin. The official domain name of the digital Heihe River Basin is heihe.westgis.ac.cn

An attempt to detect the greenhouse-gas signal in a transient GCM simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, T.P.

1990-01-01

Results from the GISS model forced by transient greenhouse-gas (GHG) increases are used to demonstrate methods of detecting the theoretically predicted GHG signal. The signal predicted to occur in the surface temperature of the world's ocean since 1958 is not found in the observations but this is not surprising since the signal was small in the first place. The main result of the study is to demonstrate many of the key issues/difficulties that attend the detection problem

GCM simulations of stable isotopes in the water cycle in comparison with GNIP observations over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xinping; Sun, Zhian; Guan, Huade; Zhang, Xinzhu; Wu, Huawu; Huang, Yimin

2012-08-01

In this paper, we examine the performance of four isotope incorporated GCMs, i.e., ECHAM4 (University of Hamburg), HadCM3 (Hadley Centre), GISS E (Goddard Institute of Space Sciences), and MUGCM (Melbourne University), by comparing the model results with GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) observations. The spatial distributions of mean annual δD and mean annual deuterium excess d in precipitation, and the relationship between δ 18O and δD in precipitation, are compared between GCMs and GNIP data over East Asia. Overall, the four GCMs reproduce major characteristics of δD in precipitation as observed by GNIP. Among the four models, the results of ECHAM4 and GISS E are more consistent with GNIP observed precipitation δD distribution. The simulated d distributions are less consistent with the GNIP results. This may indicate that kinetic fractionation processes are not appropriately represented in the isotopic schemes of GCMs. The GCM modeled MWL (meteoric water line) slopes are close to the GNIP derived MWL, but the simulated MWL intercepts are significantly overestimated. This supports that the four isotope incorporated GCMs may not represent the kinetic fractionation processes well. In term of LMWLs (local meteoric water lines), the simulated LMWL slopes are similar to those from GNIP observations, but slightly overestimated for most locations. Overall, ECHAM4 has better capability in simulating MWL and LMWLs, followed by GISS E. Some isotopic functions (especially those related to kinetic fractionation) and their parameterizations in GCMs may have caused the discrepancy between the simulated and GNIP observed results. Future work is recommended to improve isotopic function parameterization on the basis of the high-resolution isotope observations.

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

2016-01-01

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is

Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Colose, Christopher; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

2016-01-01

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger

A Field Guide to Extra-Tropical Cyclones: Comparing Models to Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, M.

2008-12-01

Climate it is said is the accumulation of weather. And weather is not the concern of climate models. Justification for this latter sentiment has long hidden behind coarse model resolutions and blunt validation tools based on climatological maps and the like. The spatial-temporal resolutions of today's models and observations are converging onto meteorological scales however, which means that with the correct tools we can test the largely unproven assumption that climate model weather is correct enough, or at least lacks perverting biases, such that its accumulation does in fact result in a robust climate prediction. Towards this effort we introduce a new tool for extracting detailed cyclone statistics from climate model output. These include the usual cyclone distribution statistics (maps, histograms), but also adaptive cyclone- centric composites. We have also created a complementary dataset, The MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS), which provides a detailed 6 hourly assessment of the areas under the influence of mid- latitude cyclones based on Reanalysis products. Using this we then extract complimentary composites from sources such as ISCCP and GPCP to create a large comparative dataset for climate model validation. A demonstration of the potential usefulness of these tools will be shown. dime.giss.nasa.gov/mcms/mcms.html

The Institute on Climate and Planets (ICP): A Research Education Program

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Barbara (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Giving students a fair start to become productive and responsible contributors in the 21st century workforce and society depends on our ability to help them develop: (1) A global view of the world; (2) Problem-solving and/or reasoning abilities; (3) Basic scientific and technical literacy; and (4) A multi-disciplinary understanding of how humans and nature interact with the earth system. The Institute on Climate and Planets (ICP) in New York City is NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies' (GISS) response to the national challenge to give students a fair start to become productive in America's workforce and society, GISS is part of the Earth Science Director at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland and a component of Columbia University's Earth Institute, a university-wide initiative whose mission is to understand our planet so as to enhance its sustainability. In 1994 Jim Hansen, several of his GISS and Columbia University colleagues and Fitzgerald Bramwell, the former Director of the New York City Alliance for Minority Participation at City University of New York, launched the ICP. ICP contributes to NASA education and minority outreach goals by directly involving underrepresented college, high school and junior high school students and their educators in research. ICP takes advantage of the interest of many civil servants and Columbia University research scientists at GISS to involve students and educators on multi-level research teams working on problems at the core of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise - advancing our understanding of Earth s climate, climate variability, and climate impacts.

Evaluation and uncertainties of global climate models as simulated in East Asia and China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Z.C.

1994-01-01

The assessments and uncertainties of the general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated in East Asia and China (15-60 N, 70-140 E) have been investigated by using seven GCMs. Four methods of assessment have been chosen. The variables for the validations for the GCMs include the annual, seasonal and monthly mean temperatures and precipitation. The assessments indicated that: (1) the simulations of seven GCMs for temperature are much better than those for precipitation; (2) the simulations in winter are much better than those in summer; (3) the simulations in eastern parts are much better than those in Western parts for both temperature and precipitation; (4) the best GCM for simulated temperature is the GISS model, and the best GCM for simulated precipitation is the UKMO-H model. The seven GCMs' means for both simulated temperature and precipitation provided good results. The range of uncertainties in East Asia and China due to human activities are presented. The differences between the GCMs for temperature and precipitation before the year 2050 are much smaller than those after the year 2050

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GISTEMP dataset is a global 2x2 gridded temperature anomaly dataset. Temperature data is updated around the middle of every month using current data files from...

Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S.

2017-12-01

Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at

Theoretical study of turbulent channel flow - Bulk properties, pressure fluctuations, and propagation of electromagnetic waves

Science.gov (United States)

Canuto, V. M.; Hartke, G. J.; Battaglia, A.; Chasnov, J.; Albrecht, G. F.

1990-01-01

In this paper, we apply two theoretical turbulence models, DIA and the recent GISS model, to study properties of a turbulent channel flow. Both models provide a turbulent kinetic energy spectral function E(k) as the solution of a non-linear equation; the two models employ the same source function but different closures. The source function is characterized by a rate n sub s (k) which is derived from the complex eigenvalues of the Orr-Sommerfeld (OS) equation in which the basic flow is taken to be of a Poiseuille type. The O-S equation is solved for a variety of Reynolds numbers corresponding to available experimental data. A physical argument is presented whereby the central line velocity characterizing the basic flow, U0 sup L, is not to be identified with the U0 appearing in the experimental Reynolds number. The theoretical results are compared with two types of experimental data: (1) turbulence bulk properties, and (2) properties that depend strongly on the structure of the turbulence spectrum at low wave numbers. The only existing analytical expression for Pi (k) cannot be used in the present case because it applies to the case of a flat plate, not a finite channel.

Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

2013-04-01

Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

Sensitivity analysis with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over the CORDEX-MENA domain

Science.gov (United States)

Bucchignani, E.; Cattaneo, L.; Panitz, H.-J.; Mercogliano, P.

2016-02-01

The results of a sensitivity work based on ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulations over the Middle East-North Africa (CORDEX-MENA) domain are presented. All simulations were performed at 0.44° spatial resolution. The purpose of this study was to ascertain model performances with respect to changes in physical and tuning parameters which are mainly related to surface, convection, radiation and cloud parameterizations. Evaluation was performed for the whole CORDEX-MENA region and six sub-regions, comparing a set of 26 COSMO-CLM runs against a combination of available ground observations, satellite products and reanalysis data to assess temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and mean sea level pressure. The model proved to be very sensitive to changes in physical parameters. The optimized configuration allows COSMO-CLM to improve the simulated main climate features of this area. Its main characteristics consist in the new parameterization of albedo, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, and the new parameterization of aerosol, based on NASA-GISS AOD distributions. When applying this configuration, Mean Absolute Error values for the considered variables are as follows: about 1.2 °C for temperature, about 15 mm/month for precipitation, about 9 % for total cloud cover, and about 0.6 hPa for mean sea level pressure.

Climate Change and Impacts Research Experiences for Urban Students

Science.gov (United States)

Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Rosenzweig, C.; Austin, S. A.; Peteet, D. M.; Druyan, L.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Scalzo, F.; Frost, J.; Moshary, F.; Greenbaum, S.; Cheung, T. K.; Howard, A.; Steiner, J. C.; Johnson, L. P.

2011-12-01

Climate change and impacts research for undergraduate urban students is the focus of the Center for Global Climate Research (CGCR). We describe student research and significant results obtained during the Summer 2011. The NSF REU site, is a collaboration between the City University of New York (CUNY) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The research teams are mentored by NASA scientists and CUNY faculty. Student projects include: Effects of Stratospheric Aerosols on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin; Comparison of Aerosol Optical Depth and Angstrom Exponent Retrieved by AERONET, MISR, and MODIS Measurements; White Roofs to the Rescue: Combating the Urban Heat Island Effect; Tropospheric Ozone Investigations in New York City; Carbon Sequestration with Climate Change in Alaskan Peatlands; Validating Regional Climate Models for Western Sub-Sahara Africa; Bio-Remediation of Toxic Waste Sites: Mineral Characteristics of Cyanide-Treated Mining Waste; Assessment of an Ocean Mixing Parameterization for Climate Studies; Comparative Wind Speed through Doppler Sounding with Pulsed Infrared LIDAR; and Satellite Telemetry and Communications. The CGCR also partners with the New York City Research Initiative (NYCRI) at GISS. The center is supported by NSF ATM-0851932 and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).

Thematic mapper studies band correlation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ungar, S. G.; Kiang, R.

1976-01-01

Spectral data representative of thematic mapper candidate bands 1 and 3 to 7 were obtained by selecting appropriate combinations of bands from the JSC 24 channel multispectral scanner. Of all the bands assigned, only candidate bands 4 (.74 mu to .80 mu) and 5 (.80 mu to .91 mu) showed consistently high intercorrelation from region to region and time to time. This extremely high correlation persisted when looking at the composite data set in a multitemporal, multilocation domain. The GISS investigations lend positive confirmation to the hypothesis, that TM bands 4 and 5 are redundant.

A Comparison Between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Geller, Marvin A.; Alexadner, M. Joan; Love, Peter T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Ern, Manfred; Hertzog, Albert; Manzini, Elisa; Preusse, Peter; Sato, Kaoru; Scaife, Adam A.;

Modeling the Sulfate Deposition to the Greenland Ice Sheet From the Laki Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Oman, L.; Robock, A.; Stenchikov, G.; Thordarson, T.; Gao, C.

2005-12-01

Using the state of the art Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) modelE general circulation model, simulations were conducted of the chemistry and transport of aerosols resulting from the 1783-84 Laki (64°N) flood lava eruption. A set of 3 ensemble simulations from different initial conditions were conducted by injecting our estimate of the SO2 gas into the atmosphere by the 10 episodes of the eruption and allowing the sulfur chemistry model to convert this gas into sulfate aerosol. The SO2 gas and sulfate aerosol is transported by the model and wet and dry deposition is calculated over each grid box during the simulation. We compare the resulting sulfate deposition to the Greenland Ice Sheet in the model to 23 ice core measurements and find very good agreement. The model simulation deposits a range of 169 to over 300 kg/km2 over interior Greenland with much higher values along the coastal areas. This compares to a range of 62 to 324 kg/km2 for the 23 ice core measurements with an average value of 158 kg/km2. This comparison is one important model validation tool. Modeling and observations show fairly large spatial variations in the deposition of sulfate across the Greenland Ice Sheet for the Laki eruption, but the patterns are similar to those we modeled for the 1912 Katmai and 1991 Pinatubo eruptions. Estimates of sulfate loading based on single ice cores can show significant differences, so ideally several ice cores should be combined in reconstructing the sulfate loading of past volcanic eruptions, taking into account the characteristic spatial variations in the deposition pattern.

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Stochastic simulation of climate change impacts on ice road operations, MacKenzie River, Northwest Territories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Mingko; Lonergan, S.

1990-01-01

Winter roads constitute an important part of the transportation network in the MacKenzie Delta, the Yellowknife area, and between the MacKenzie Highway and the Canol Road. Climatic changes in the MacKenzie Valley will alter the probabilities of ice cover thickness and duration, impacting on the periods when ice road river crossings are viable. Stochastic models were developed to generate air temperature and precipitation data to analyze climate impacts on when ice road crossing of the MacKenzie River at Norman Wells is feasible. The data were employed to simulate river ice growth and decay. Several general circulation models were employed to determine the impacts of climatic change on the ice regime. For precipitation simulation, the occurrence of wet or dry days was determined from Markov chain transition probabilities. In general, the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) model predicted the largest increase in monthly precipitation and the Oregon State University (OSU) model predicted the least changes. The various scenarios indicated that the duration for vehicular traffic over ice will be significantly reduced, compared to present day Norman Wells ice crossing operation. For 20 tonne vehicles, the current duration for safe crossing averages 169±14.6 days per year, while for the OSU scenario it will be reduced to 148±14.7 days, is further reduced to 127±24.9 days for the GISS scenario, and drops to 122±21.7 days for the GFDL (General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) scenario. 5 refs., 1 fig

The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

2018-01-01

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important

Modelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenariosModelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. O. Belyakov

2017-01-01

were found to be 350–400 mm during AWSP with ANPP at 350 g/m2. On the basis of the regression model and current forecasts of changes in precipitation rates we made a forecast of net primary production of plant communities for four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 described in the Fifth Assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. For this purpose, bioclimate projections of 10 major climate models (The Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M, used for preparation of the IPCC report, were analyzed and imported to the geographical information system package QGIS. QGIS modelling software was used for geoanalysis and calculation of GIS-layers for Askania-Nova and adjacent arid grasslands. The results of modelling with the 10 climate models were compared and analyzed for each of the four IPCC scenarios, depending on predicted CO2 levels. The presented modelling results showed a trend to growth in AWSP precipitation and NPP for all scenarios up to 2040–2060. The scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 predicted the optimum precipitation zone for current plant diversity for the period of 2040–2060 and scenario RCP8.5 predicted an optimum zone peak after 2080. The study confirmed the importance of monitoring the productivity of herbaceous communities in dry steppe ecosystems ofUkraine.

A Systematic Exploration of the Local and Remote Climate Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions from Key Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Voulgarakis, A.; Kasoar, M.; Shawki, D.; Lamarque, J. F.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Bellouin, N.; Collins, W.; Tsigaridis, K.

2016-12-01

The radiative forcing of short-lived pollutants such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone is highly inhomogeneous and can therefore affect regional temperature, circulation and precipitation in a much more complicated way than the forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases. Such effects have only recently started to be examined thoroughly and systematically from a global point of view, to understand regional interactions. Here, after outlining some key past work in this area, results from recent simulations with the UK Met Office's HadGEM3 global composition-climate model will be presented in which anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and black carbon in key regions (East Asia, South Asia, Europe, the US, and the northern mid-latitudes as a whole) have been removed. The linkages between emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, temperature and precipitation responses will be discussed. A particular emphasis will be placed on non-local effects, i.e. how emissions over a certain region can affect other areas remotely. Finally, we will contrast our results with those from similar experiments pursued using the NASA GISS-E2 and the NCAR CESM1 models for US and East Asian SO2 emissions, and will discuss the large differences in the models' behaviour.

Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration.

Science.gov (United States)

Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

1988-09-01

A physically based ground hydrology model is developed to improve the land-surface sensible and latent heat calculations in global climate models (GCMs). The processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff are explicitly included in the model. The amount of detail in the hydrologic calculations is restricted to a level appropriate for use in a GCM, but each of the aforementioned processes is modeled on the basis of the underlying physical principles. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM are used as inputs for off-line tests of the ground hydrology model in four 8° × 10° regions (Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India). Soil and vegetation input parameters are calculated as area-weighted means over the 8° × 10° gridhox. This compositing procedure is tested by comparing resulting hydrological quantities to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1° × 1° cells which comprise the 8° × 10° gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure works well except in the Sahel where lower soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce more variability in hydrological quantities, indicating that a resolution better than 8° × 10° is needed for that region. Modeled annual and diurnal hydrological cycles compare well with observations for Brazil, where real world data are available. The sensitivity of the ground hydrology model to several of its input parameters was tested; it was found to be most sensitive to the fraction of land covered by vegetation and least sensitive to the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential.

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1995-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V M; Villanueva, E E; Garduno, R; Adem, J [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1996-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

2006-01-01

Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint

How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

Science.gov (United States)

Perlwitz, J. P.; Fridlind, A. M.; Knopf, D. A.; Miller, R. L.; Pérez García-Pando, C.

2017-12-01

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 2-4 μm contributes the largest INP number.

How the Emitted Size Distribution and Mixing State of Feldspar Affect Ice Nucleating Particles in a Global Model

Science.gov (United States)

Perlwitz, Jan P.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Knopf, Daniel A.; Miller, Ron L.; García-Pando, Carlos Perez

2017-01-01

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate prediction. We apply an improved dust mineral specific aerosol module in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE, which takes into account soil aggregates and their fragmentation at emission as well as the emission of large particles. We calculate ice nucleating particle concentrations from K-feldspar abundance for an active site parameterization for a range of activation temperatures and external and internal mixing assumption. We find that the globally averaged INP concentration is reduced by a factor of two to three, compared to a simple assumption on the size distribution of emitted dust minerals. The decrease can amount to a factor of five in some geographical regions. The results vary little between external and internal mixing and different activation temperatures, except for the coldest temperatures. In the sectional size distribution, the size range 24 micrometer contributes the largest INP number.

Using an Optimized Chinese Address Matching Method to Develop a Geocoding Service: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qin Tian

2016-05-01

Full Text Available With the coming era of big data and the rapid development and widespread applications of Geographical Information Systems (GISs, geocoding technology is playing an increasingly important role in bridging the gap between non-spatial data resources and spatial data in various fields. However, Chinese geocoding faces great challenges because of the complexity of the address string format in Chinese, which contains no delimiters between Chinese words, and the poor address management resulting from the existence of multiple address authorities spread among different governmental agencies. This paper presents a geocoding service based on an optimized Chinese address matching method, including address modeling, address standardization and address matching. The address model focuses on the spatial semantics of each address element, and the address standardization process is based on an address tree model. A geocoding service application is implemented in practice using a large quantity of data from Shenzhen Municipality. More than 1,460,000 data records were used to test the geocoding service, and good matching rates were achieved with good adaptability and intelligence.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger

Laurentide Ice-Sheet Meltwater Sources to the Gulf of Mexico During the Last Deglaciation: Assessing Data Reconstructions Using Water Isotope Enabled Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, L.; LeGrande, A. N.; Ullman, D. J.; Carlson, A. E.

2017-12-01

Sediment cores from the Gulf of Mexico show evidence of meltwater derived from the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation. Recent studies using geochemical measurements of individual foraminifera suggest changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the meltwater as deglaciation proceeded. Here we use the water isotope enabled climate model simulations (NASA GISS ModelE-R) to investigate potential sources of meltwater within the ice sheet. We find that initial melting of the ice sheet from the southern margin contributed an oxygen isotope value reflecting a low-elevation, local precipitation source. As deglacial melting proceeded, meltwater delivered to the Gulf of Mexico had a more negative oxygen isotopic value, which the climate model simulates as being sourced from the high-elevation, high-latitude interior of the ice sheet. This study demonstrates the utility of combining stable isotope analyses with climate model simulations to investigate past changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhang, Jian-Yun; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Xie, Yu-Xuan; Zhang, Xu

2018-02-01

A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Evaluation of vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms in the HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

Science.gov (United States)

Halliwell, George R.

Vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms included in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) are evaluated in low-resolution climatological simulations of the Atlantic Ocean. The hybrid vertical coordinates are isopycnic in the deep ocean interior, but smoothly transition to level (pressure) coordinates near the ocean surface, to sigma coordinates in shallow water regions, and back again to level coordinates in very shallow water. By comparing simulations to climatology, the best model performance is realized using hybrid coordinates in conjunction with one of the three available differential vertical mixing models: the nonlocal K-Profile Parameterization, the NASA GISS level 2 turbulence closure, and the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure. Good performance is also achieved using the quasi-slab Price-Weller-Pinkel dynamical instability model. Differences among these simulations are too small relative to other errors and biases to identify the "best" vertical mixing model for low-resolution climate simulations. Model performance deteriorates slightly when the Kraus-Turner slab mixed layer model is used with hybrid coordinates. This deterioration is smallest when solar radiation penetrates beneath the mixed layer and when shear instability mixing is included. A simulation performed using isopycnic coordinates to emulate the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), which uses Kraus-Turner mixing without penetrating shortwave radiation and shear instability mixing, demonstrates that the advantages of switching from isopycnic to hybrid coordinates and including more sophisticated turbulence closures outweigh the negative numerical effects of maintaining hybrid vertical coordinates.

New Statistical Model for Variability of Aerosol Optical Thickness: Theory and Application to MODIS Data over Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandrov, Mikhail Dmitrievic; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Marshak, Alexander; Levy, Robert; Cairns, Brian

2016-01-01

A novel model for the variability in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is presented. This model is based on the consideration of AOT fields as realizations of a stochastic process, that is the exponent of an underlying Gaussian process with a specific autocorrelation function. In this approach AOT fields have lognormal PDFs and structure functions having the correct asymptotic behavior at large scales. The latter is an advantage compared with fractal (scale-invariant) approaches. The simple analytical form of the structure function in the proposed model facilitates its use for the parameterization of AOT statistics derived from remote sensing data. The new approach is illustrated using a month-long global MODIS AOT dataset (over ocean) with 10 km resolution. It was used to compute AOT statistics for sample cells forming a grid with 5deg spacing. The observed shapes of the structure functions indicated that in a large number of cases the AOT variability is split into two regimes that exhibit different patterns of behavior: small-scale stationary processes and trends reflecting variations at larger scales. The small-scale patterns are suggested to be generated by local aerosols within the marine boundary layer, while the large-scale trends are indicative of elevated aerosols transported from remote continental sources. This assumption is evaluated by comparison of the geographical distributions of these patterns derived from MODIS data with those obtained from the GISS GCM. This study shows considerable potential to enhance comparisons between remote sensing datasets and climate models beyond regional mean AOTs.

Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

1993-09-01

A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

Air, Ocean and Climate Monitoring Enhancing Undergraduate Training in the Physical, Environmental and Computer Sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Hope, W. W.; Johnson, L. P.; Obl, W.; Stewart, A.; Harris, W. C.; Craig, R. D.

2000-01-01

Faculty in the Department of Physical, Environmental and Computer Sciences strongly believe in the concept that undergraduate research and research-related activities must be integrated into the fabric of our undergraduate Science and Technology curricula. High level skills, such as problem solving, reasoning, collaboration and the ability to engage in research, are learned for advanced study in graduate school or for competing for well paying positions in the scientific community. One goal of our academic programs is to have a pipeline of research activities from high school to four year college, to graduate school, based on the GISS Institute on Climate and Planets model.

Regional specific groundwater arsenic levels and neuropsychological functioning: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Melissa; Johnson, Leigh; Mauer, Cortney; Barber, Robert; Hall, James; O'Bryant, Sid

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the link between geographic information system (GIS)-estimated regional specific groundwater levels and neuropsychological functioning in a sample of individuals with and without cognitive impairment. This cross-sectional study design analyzed data from 1390 participants (733 Alzheimer's disease, 127 Mild Cognitive Impairment, and 530 with normal cognition) enrolled in the Texas Alzheimer's Research and Care Consortium. GISs analyses were used to estimate regional specific groundwater arsenic concentrations using the Environmental Systems Research Institute and arsenic concentrations from the Texas Water Development Board. In the full cohort, regional specific arsenic concentrations were positively associated with language abilities (p = 0.008), but associated with poorer verbal memory, immediate (p = 0.008), and delayed (p arsenic being related with cognition most prominently among mild cognitive impairment cases. Overall, estimated regional specific groundwater arsenic levels were negatively associated with neuropsychological performance.

Can Condensing Organic Aerosols Lead to Less Cloud Particles?

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Gao, C. Y.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bauer, S.

2017-12-01

We examined the impact of condensing organic aerosols on activated cloud number concentration in a new aerosol microphysics box model, MATRIX-VBS. The model includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state) that resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. Preliminary results show that by including the condensation of organic aerosols, the new model (MATRIX-VBS) has less activated particles compared to the original model (MATRIX), which treats organic aerosols as non-volatile. Parameters such as aerosol chemical composition, mass and number concentrations, and particle sizes which affect activated cloud number concentration are thoroughly evaluated via a suite of Monte-Carlo simulations. The Monte-Carlo simulations also provide information on which climate-relevant parameters play a critical role in the aerosol evolution in the atmosphere. This study also helps simplifying the newly developed box model which will soon be implemented in the global model GISS ModelE as a module.

A flexible climate model for use in integrated assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov, A. P.; Stone, P. H.

Because of significant uncertainty in the behavior of the climate system, evaluations of the possible impact of an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere require a large number of long-term climate simulations. Studies of this kind are impossible to carry out with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource requirements. Here we describe a two dimensional (zonally averaged) atmospheric model coupled with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. The 2-D model has been developed from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM and includes parametrizations of all the main physical processes. This allows it to reproduce many of the nonlinear interactions occurring in simulations with GCMs. Comparisons of the results of present-day climate simulations with observations show that the model reasonably reproduces the main features of the zonally averaged atmospheric structure and circulation. The model's sensitivity can be varied by changing the magnitude of an inserted additional cloud feedback. Equilibrium responses of different versions of the 2-D model to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 are compared with results of similar simulations with different AGCMs. It is shown that the additional cloud feedback does not lead to any physically inconsistent results. On the contrary, changes in climate variables such as precipitation and evaporation, and their dependencies on surface warming produced by different versions of the MIT 2-D model are similar to those shown by GCMs. By choosing appropriate values of the deep ocean diffusion coefficients, the transient behavior of different AOGCMs can be matched in simulations with the 2-D model, with a unique choice of diffusion coefficients allowing one to match the performance of a given AOGCM

Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X.-J. Wang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22  ×  108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25  ×  108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

Effects of climate change on rice production and strategies for adaptation in southern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Z.; Ge, D.; Chen, H.; Fang, J. [Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences (China)

1995-12-31

The CERES-rice (Oryza sativa L.) model was calibrated and validated for nine sites in southern China to examine its suitability to model rice production in this area, using agronomic data from more than three successive years. After determining the genetic coefficients for the cultivars, the CERES-rice model was run a second time for the same locations for a time period of 20 to 30 yr. The model used local climate data (1958--1986) and doubled-CO{sub 2} climate change scenarios generated from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate models (GCMs), with and without supplemental irrigation(to model paddy and upland rice, respectively). The study estimated the potential impacts of climate change on rice production by comparing the base runs with the runs under the three doubled-CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios and it considered the physiological effects of CO{sub 2} on rice growth in each GCM scenario. Finally, the study examined several strategies for adapting to climate change.

Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

2006-12-01

The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000

Evaluating Modeled Impact Metrics for Human Health, Agriculture Growth, and Near-Term Climate

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Seltzer, K. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Murray, L. T.

2017-12-01

Simulated metrics that assess impacts on human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate were evaluated using ground-based and satellite observations. The NASA GISS ModelE2 and GEOS-Chem models were used to simulate the near-present chemistry of the atmosphere. A suite of simulations that varied by model, meteorology, horizontal resolution, emissions inventory, and emissions year were performed, enabling an analysis of metric sensitivities to various model components. All simulations utilized consistent anthropogenic global emissions inventories (ECLIPSE V5a or CEDS), and an evaluation of simulated results were carried out for 2004-2006 and 2009-2011 over the United States and 2014-2015 over China. Results for O3- and PM2.5-based metrics featured minor differences due to the model resolutions considered here (2.0° × 2.5° and 0.5° × 0.666°) and model, meteorology, and emissions inventory each played larger roles in variances. Surface metrics related to O3 were consistently high biased, though to varying degrees, demonstrating the need to evaluate particular modeling frameworks before O3 impacts are quantified. Surface metrics related to PM2.5 were diverse, indicating that a multimodel mean with robust results are valuable tools in predicting PM2.5-related impacts. Oftentimes, the configuration that captured the change of a metric best over time differed from the configuration that captured the magnitude of the same metric best, demonstrating the challenge in skillfully simulating impacts. These results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models in simulating impact metrics related to air quality and near-term climate. With such information, the reliability of historical and future simulations can be better understood.

Use of variability modes to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casado, M.J.; Pastor, M.A. [Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Madrid (Spain)

2012-01-15

This paper analyzes the ability of the multi-model simulations from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the main leading modes of variability over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter: the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian mode (SCAND), the East/Atlantic Oscillation (EA) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia mode (EA/WR). These modes of variability have been evaluated both spatially, by analyzing the intensity and location of their anomaly centres, as well as temporally, by focusing on the probability density functions and e-folding time scales. The choice of variability modes as a tool for climate model assessment can be justified by the fact that modes of variability determine local climatic conditions and their likely change may have important implications for future climate changes. It is found that all the models considered are able to simulate reasonably well these four variability modes, the SCAND being the mode which is best spatially simulated. From a temporal point of view the NAO and SCAND modes are the best simulated. UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the models best at reproducing spatial characteristics, whereas CCSM3 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best ones with regard to the temporal features. GISS-AOM is the model showing the worst performance, in terms of both spatial and temporal features. These results may bring new insight into the selection and use of specific models to simulate Euro-Atlantic climate, with some models being clearly more successful in simulating patterns of temporal and spatial variability than others. (orig.)

Increasing biological diversity in a dynamic vegetation model and consequences for simulated response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.

2013-12-01

Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.

Mapping the Martian Meteorology

Science.gov (United States)

Allison, M.; Ross, J. D.; Solomon, N.

1999-01-01

The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6microb level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

Evaluation of the reactive nitrogen budget of the remote atmosphere in global models using airborne measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, L. T.; Strode, S. A.; Fiore, A. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Prather, M. J.; Thompson, C. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Allen, H.; Blake, D. R.; Crounse, J. D.; Brune, W. H.; Elkins, J. W.; Hall, S. R.; Hintsa, E. J.; Huey, L. G.; Kim, M. J.; Moore, F. L.; Ullmann, K.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wofsy, S. C.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) in the background atmosphere are critical precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone and OH, thereby exerting strong influence on surface air quality, reactive greenhouse gases, and ecosystem health. The impact of NOx on atmospheric composition and climate is sensitive to the relative partitioning of reactive nitrogen between NOx and longer-lived reservoir species of the total reactive nitrogen family (NOy) such as HNO3, HNO4, PAN and organic nitrates (RONO2). Unfortunately, global chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs) have historically disagreed in their reactive nitrogen budgets outside of polluted continental regions, and we have lacked in situ observations with which to evaluate them. Here, we compare and evaluate the NOy budget of six global models (GEOS-Chem CTM, GFDL AM3 CCM, GISS E2.1 CCM, GMI CTM, NCAR CAM CCM, and UCI CTM) using new observations of total reactive nitrogen and its member species from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. ATom has now completed two of its four planned deployments sampling the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins of both hemispheres with a comprehensive suite of measurements for constraining reactive photochemistry. All six models have simulated conditions climatologically similar to the deployments. The GMI and GEOS-Chem CTMs have in addition performed hindcast simulations using the MERRA-2 reanalysis, and have been sampled along the flight tracks. We evaluate the performance of the models relative to the observations, and identify factors contributing to their disparate behavior using known differences in model oxidation mechanisms, heterogeneous loss pathways, lightning and surface emissions, and physical loss processes.

Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.

2001-01-01

A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between

Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Dust Transport over Surface Mining Areas and Neighbouring Residential Zones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Gulikova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Projects focusing on spatio-temporal modelling of the living environment need to manage a wide range of terrain measurements, existing spatial data, time series, results of spatial analysis and inputs/outputs from numerical simulations. Thus, GISs are often used to manage data from remote sensors, to provide advanced spatial analysis and to integrate numerical models. In order to demonstrate the integration of spatial data, time series and methods in the framework of the GIS, we present a case study focused on the modelling of dust transport over a surface coal mining area, exploring spatial data from 3D laser scanners, GPS measurements, aerial images, time series of meteorological observations, inputs/outputs form numerical models and existing geographic resources. To achieve this, digital terrain models, layers including GPS thematic mapping, and scenes with simulation of wind flows are created to visualize and interpret coal dust transport over the mine area and a neighbouring residential zone. A temporary coal storage and sorting site, located near the residential zone, is one of the dominant sources of emissions. Using numerical simulations, the possible effects of wind flows are observed over the surface, modified by natural objects and man-made obstacles. The coal dust drifts with the wind in the direction of the residential zone and is partially deposited in this area. The simultaneous display of the digital map layers together with the location of the dominant emission source, wind flows and protected areas enables a risk assessment of the dust deposition in the area of interest to be performed. In order to obtain a more accurate simulation of wind flows over the temporary storage and sorting site, 3D laser scanning and GPS thematic mapping are used to create a more detailed digital terrain model. Thus, visualization of wind flows over the area of interest combined with 3D map layers enables the exploration of the processes of coal dust

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Modeling radiative transfer with the doubling and adding approach in a climate GCM setting

Science.gov (United States)

Lacis, A. A.

2017-12-01

The nonlinear dependence of multiply scattered radiation on particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle, makes accurate treatment of multiple scattering in the climate GCM setting problematic, due primarily to computational cost issues. In regard to the accurate methods of calculating multiple scattering that are available, their computational cost is far too prohibitive for climate GCM applications. Utilization of two-stream-type radiative transfer approximations may be computationally fast enough, but at the cost of reduced accuracy. We describe here a parameterization of the doubling/adding method that is being used in the GISS climate GCM, which is an adaptation of the doubling/adding formalism configured to operate with a look-up table utilizing a single gauss quadrature point with an extra-angle formulation. It is designed to closely reproduce the accuracy of full-angle doubling and adding for the multiple scattering effects of clouds and aerosols in a realistic atmosphere as a function of particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle. With an additional inverse look-up table, this single-gauss-point doubling/adding approach can be adapted to model fractional cloud cover for any GCM grid-box in the independent pixel approximation as a function of the fractional cloud particle sizes, optical depths, and solar zenith angle dependence.

Long-term Health and Socioeconomic Impacts of Landscape Fire Emissions in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Jina, A.; Marlier, M. E.

2013-12-01

Among natural disasters, wildfires are perhaps the most complex case of a coupled human-natural system, with both direct and indirect costs to society. A major contributor to these indirect costs is the impact upon health in the short- and long-term. Air pollution from fires is associated with more deaths from cardio-pulmonary diseases, yet little or no research has looked beyond the short-term mortality and morbidity associated with wildfire pollution, particularly in developing countries where impacts may be greatest but monitoring presents a constant challenge. We address this by using an interdisciplinary approach combining modeled air pollution with econometric methods to identify the long-term effects of air pollution on health and cognitive ability. These impacts will persist in society, and can lead to decreased education, loss of earnings, and a suppression of economic activity. We take the case of Indonesia, which is prone to large, catastrophic fires during El Niño conditions. Satellite data partially compensate for the lack of monitoring data for air pollution, but there are still significant gaps in data availability and difficulty in retrieving surface concentrations. In this study, surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at 2x2.5° resolution are obtained from GISS-E2-Puccini (the new version of the NASA GISS ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM)), run with monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). 24-hour ambient PM2.5 concentrations across Indonesia are matched to geographically and socioeconomic surveys. We find that exposure to high levels of PM2.5 at birth (and in utero) has negative impacts upon physical development of infants. This is associated with health problems later in life, as well as lower educational and labor market outcomes. A one standard deviation increase in ambient air pollution exposure leads to effects comparable to those from indoor air pollution. We also find a

Atmospheric Residence Times of Continental Aerosols.

Science.gov (United States)

Balkanski, Yves Jacques

The global atmospheric distributions of ^{222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb are simulated with a three-dimensional model of atmospheric transport based on the meteorology of the NASA GISS^1>=neral circulation model. The short-lived radioactive gas ^ {222}Rn (half-life = 3.8d) is emitted almost exclusively from land, at a relatively uniform rate; hence it is an excellent tracer of continental influences. Lead -210 is produced by decay of ^{222} Rn and immediately condenses to preexisting aerosol surfaces. It provides an excellent measure of aerosol residence times in the atmosphere because its source is accurately defined by the ^{222} Rn distribution. Results from the three-dimensional model are compared to measurements of ^ {222}Rn and ^{210 }Pb atmospheric concentrations to evaluate model's long-range transport over oceanic regions and to study the deposition mechanisms of atmospheric aerosols. Model results for ^{222} Rn are used to examine the long-range transport of continental air over two selected oceanic regions, the subantartic Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. It is shown that fast transport of air from southern Africa causes substantial continental pollution at southern mid-latitudes, a region usually regarded as pristine. Air over the North Pacific is heavily impacted by continental influences year round, but the altitude at which the transport occurs varies seasonally. Observations of aerosols at island sites, which are commonly used as diagnostics of continental influences, may be misleading because they do not account for influences at high altitude and because aerosols are efficiently scavenged by deposition during transport. The study of ^{210}Pb focuses on defining the residence times of submicron aerosols in the troposphere. Scavenging in wet convective updrafts is found to provide the dominant sink on a global scale. The globally averaged residence time for ^{210 }Pb-containing aerosols in the troposphere is 7 days. The average increase in residence time

Constraining the models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations

Science.gov (United States)

Cesana, G.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ackerman, A. S.; Brient, F.; Fridlind, A. M.; Kelley, M.; Elsaesser, G.

2017-12-01

Low-cloud response to a warmer climate is still pointed out as being the largest source of uncertainty in the last generation of climate models. To date there is no consensus among the models on whether the tropical low cloudiness would increase or decrease in a warmer climate. In addition, it has been shown that - depending on their climate sensitivity - the models either predict deeper or shallower low clouds. Recently, several relationships between inter-model characteristics of the present-day climate and future climate changes have been highlighted. These so-called emergent constraints aim to target relevant model improvements and to constrain models' projections based on current climate observations. Here we propose to use - for the first time - 10 years of CALIPSO cloud statistics to assess the ability of the models to represent the vertical structure of tropical low clouds for abnormally warm SST. We use a simulator approach to compare observations and simulations and focus on the low-layered clouds (i.e. z fraction. Vertically, the clouds deepen namely by decreasing the cloud fraction in the lowest levels and increasing it around the top of the boundary-layer. This feature is coincident with an increase of the high-level cloud fraction (z > 6.5km). Although the models' spread is large, the multi-model mean captures the observed variations but with a smaller amplitude. We then employ the GISS model to investigate how changes in cloud parameterizations affect the response of low clouds to warmer SSTs on the one hand; and how they affect the variations of the model's cloud profiles with respect to environmental parameters on the other hand. Finally, we use CALIPSO observations to constrain the model by determining i) what set of parameters allows reproducing the observed relationships and ii) what are the consequences on the cloud feedbacks. These results point toward process-oriented constraints of low-cloud responses to surface warming and environmental

Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas, Ozone, Solar and Volcanic Forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Shindell, Drew T.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate/middle atmosphere model has been used to study the impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycle variability. We focus on the projection of the induced responses onto Northern Hemisphere winter surface climate. Changes in the model's surface climate take place largely through enhancement of existing variability patterns, with greenhouse gases, polar ozone depletion and volcanic eruptions primarily affecting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) pattern. Perturbations descend from the stratosphere to the surface in the model by altering the propagation of planetary waves coming up from the surface, in accord with observational evidence. Models lacking realistic stratospheric dynamics fail to capture these wave flux changes. The results support the conclusion that the stratosphere plays a crucial role in recent AO trends. We show that in our climate model, while ozone depletion has a significant effect, greenhouse gas forcing is the only one capable of causing the large, sustained increase in the AO observed over recent decades. This suggests that the AO trend, and a concurrent strengthening of the stratospheric vortex over the Arctic, are very likely anthropogenic in origin.

What Can Earth Paleoclimates Reveal About the Resiliency of Habitable States? An Example from the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Sohl, L.

2014-04-01

modeling studies is likely to result in an expansion of our view of what a "Goldilocks" state can entail. Future simulations with a modified version of the NASA/GISS GCM, ROCKE-3D, will take advantage of newly-added model capabilities that evaluate the influence of rotation rate, solar spectral variability, CO2 surface condensation and CO2 clouds on the outer edge of Earth's habitable zone.

Evaluating climate model performance in the tropics with retrievals of water isotopic composition from Aura TES

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Robert; Kim, Daehyun; Kelley, Max; LeGrande, Allegra; Worden, John; Schmidt, Gavin

2014-05-01

Observational and theoretical arguments suggest that satellite retrievals of the stable isotope composition of water vapor could be useful for climate model evaluation. The isotopic composition of water vapor is controlled by the same processes that control water vapor amount, but the observed distribution of isotopic composition is distinct from amount itself . This is due to the fractionation that occurs between the abundant H216O isotopes (isotopologues) and the rare and heavy H218O and HDO isotopes during evaporation and condensation. The fractionation physics are much simpler than the underlying moist physics; discrepancies between observed and modeled isotopic fields are more likely due to problems in the latter. Isotopic measurements therefore have the potential for identifying problems that might not be apparent from more conventional measurements. Isotopic tracers have existed in climate models since the 1980s but it is only since the mid 2000s that there have been enough data for meaningful model evaluation in this sense, in the troposphere at least. We have evaluated the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model over the tropics against water isotope (HDO/H2O) retrievals from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), alongside more conventional measurements. A small ensemble of experiments was performed with physics perturbations to the cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes, done in the context of the normal model development process. We examined the degree to which model-data agreement could be used to constrain a select group of internal processes in the model, namely condensate evaporation, entrainment strength, and moist convective air mass flux. All are difficult to parameterize, but exert strong influence over model performance. We found that the water isotope composition was significantly more sensitive to physics changes than precipitation, temperature or relative humidity through the depth of the tropical troposphere. Among the

Simulating mixed-phase Arctic stratus clouds: sensitivity to ice initiation mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. McFarquhar

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The importance of Arctic mixed-phase clouds on radiation and the Arctic climate is well known. However, the development of mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in large scale models is limited by lack of both related observations and numerical studies using multidimensional models with advanced microphysics that provide the basis for understanding the relative importance of different microphysical processes that take place in mixed-phase clouds. To improve the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in the GISS GCM we use the GISS single-column model coupled to a bin resolved microphysics (BRM scheme that was specially designed to simulate mixed-phase clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions. Using this model with the microphysical measurements obtained from the DOE ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (MPACE campaign in October 2004 at the North Slope of Alaska, we investigate the effect of ice initiation processes and Bergeron-Findeisen process (BFP on glaciation time and longevity of single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds. We focus on observations taken during 9–10 October, which indicated the presence of a single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We performed several sets of 12-h simulations to examine model sensitivity to different ice initiation mechanisms and evaluate model output (hydrometeors' concentrations, contents, effective radii, precipitation fluxes, and radar reflectivity against measurements from the MPACE Intensive Observing Period. Overall, the model qualitatively simulates ice crystal concentration and hydrometeors content, but it fails to predict quantitatively the effective radii of ice particles and their vertical profiles. In particular, the ice effective radii are overestimated by at least 50%. However, using the same definition as used for observations, the effective radii simulated and that observed were more comparable. We find that for the single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds simulated, process

Simulating mixed-phase Arctic stratus clouds: sensitivity to ice initiation mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Sednev, I.; Menon, S.; McFarquhar, G.

2009-07-01

The importance of Arctic mixed-phase clouds on radiation and the Arctic climate is well known. However, the development of mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in large scale models is limited by lack of both related observations and numerical studies using multidimensional models with advanced microphysics that provide the basis for understanding the relative importance of different microphysical processes that take place in mixed-phase clouds. To improve the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in the GISS GCM we use the GISS single-column model coupled to a bin resolved microphysics (BRM) scheme that was specially designed to simulate mixed-phase clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions. Using this model with the microphysical measurements obtained from the DOE ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (MPACE) campaign in October 2004 at the North Slope of Alaska, we investigate the effect of ice initiation processes and Bergeron-Findeisen process (BFP) on glaciation time and longevity of single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds. We focus on observations taken during 9-10 October, which indicated the presence of a single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We performed several sets of 12-h simulations to examine model sensitivity to different ice initiation mechanisms and evaluate model output (hydrometeors' concentrations, contents, effective radii, precipitation fluxes, and radar reflectivity) against measurements from the MPACE Intensive Observing Period. Overall, the model qualitatively simulates ice crystal concentration and hydrometeors content, but it fails to predict quantitatively the effective radii of ice particles and their vertical profiles. In particular, the ice effective radii are overestimated by at least 50%. However, using the same definition as used for observations, the effective radii simulated and that observed were more comparable. We find that for the single-layer stratiform mixed-phase clouds simulated, process of ice phase initiation

Use of Indicator Kriging to Investigate Schistosomiasis in Minas Gerais State, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo J. P. S. Guimarães

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Geographic Information Systems (GISs are composed of useful tools to map and to model the spatial distribution of events that have geographic importance as schistosomiasis. This paper is a review of the use the indicator kriging, implemented on the Georeferenced Information Processing System (SPRING to make inferences about the prevalence of schistosomiasis and the presence of the species of Biomphalaria, intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni, in areas without this information, in the Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The results were two maps. The first one was a map of Biomphalaria species, and the second was a new map of estimated prevalence of schistosomiasis. The obtained results showed that the indicator kriging can be used to better allocate resources for study and control of schistosomiasis in areas with transmission or the possibility of disease transmission.

Studies on DANESS Code Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Chang Joon

2009-09-01

The DANESS code modeling study has been performed. DANESS code is widely used in a dynamic fuel cycle analysis. Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has used the DANESS code for the Korean national nuclear fuel cycle scenario analysis. In this report, the important models such as Energy-demand scenario model, New Reactor Capacity Decision Model, Reactor and Fuel Cycle Facility History Model, and Fuel Cycle Model are investigated. And, some models in the interface module are refined and inserted for Korean nuclear fuel cycle model. Some application studies have also been performed for GNEP cases and for US fast reactor scenarios with various conversion ratios

Data Availability to Support a Standardized Military Geographical Information System Database.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-03-01

world. Camp Roberts, CA, is located on the edge of the GISs can be divided roughly into the manipulation Santa Lucia Mountains bordering the Salinas...ulsa 74102 Weterways Eoperiment Station 39180 Vicksburg 39180 FORSCOM ATlN: Library Walla della 99362 FORSCOM Engineer, ATN: AFEN-FE’dilmington 28401

A DTM MULTI-RESOLUTION COMPRESSED MODEL FOR EFFICIENT DATA STORAGE AND NETWORK TRANSFER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Biagi

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In recent years the technological evolution of terrestrial, aerial and satellite surveying, has considerably increased the measurement accuracy and, consequently, the quality of the derived information. At the same time, the smaller and smaller limitations on data storage devices, in terms of capacity and cost, has allowed the storage and the elaboration of a bigger number of instrumental observations. A significant example is the terrain height surveyed by LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging technology where several height measurements for each square meter of land can be obtained. The availability of such a large quantity of observations is an essential requisite for an in-depth knowledge of the phenomena under study. But, at the same time, the most common Geographical Information Systems (GISs show latency in visualizing and analyzing these kind of data. This problem becomes more evident in case of Internet GIS. These systems are based on the very frequent flow of geographical information over the internet and, for this reason, the band-width of the network and the size of the data to be transmitted are two fundamental factors to be considered in order to guarantee the actual usability of these technologies. In this paper we focus our attention on digital terrain models (DTM's and we briefly analyse the problems about the definition of the minimal necessary information to store and transmit DTM's over network, with a fixed tolerance, starting from a huge number of observations. Then we propose an innovative compression approach for sparse observations by means of multi-resolution spline functions approximation. The method is able to provide metrical accuracy at least comparable to that provided by the most common deterministic interpolation algorithms (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, radial basis functions. At the same time it dramatically reduces the number of information required for storing or for transmitting and rebuilding a

Improved darunavir genotypic mutation score predicting treatment response for patients infected with HIV-1 subtype B and non-subtype B receiving a salvage regimen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Luca, Andrea; Flandre, Philippe; Dunn, David

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to improve the prediction of the impact of HIV-1 protease mutations in different viral subtypes on virological response to darunavir. METHODS: Darunavir-containing treatment change episodes (TCEs) in patients previously failing PIs were selected from...... was derived based on best subset least squares estimation with mutational weights corresponding to regression coefficients. Virological outcome prediction accuracy was compared with that from existing genotypic resistance interpretation systems (GISs) (ANRS 2013, Rega 9.1.0 and HIVdb 7.0). RESULTS: TCEs were...

Comparison of conventional study model measurements and 3D digital study model measurements from laser scanned dental impressions

Science.gov (United States)

Nugrahani, F.; Jazaldi, F.; Noerhadi, N. A. I.

2017-08-01

The field of orthodontics is always evolving,and this includes the use of innovative technology. One type of orthodontic technology is the development of three-dimensional (3D) digital study models that replace conventional study models made by stone. This study aims to compare the mesio-distal teeth width, intercanine width, and intermolar width measurements between a 3D digital study model and a conventional study model. Twelve sets of upper arch dental impressions were taken from subjects with non-crowding teeth. The impressions were taken twice, once with alginate and once with polivinylsiloxane. The alginate impressions used in the conventional study model and the polivinylsiloxane impressions were scanned to obtain the 3D digital study model. Scanning was performed using a laser triangulation scanner device assembled by the School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics at the Institut Teknologi Bandung and David Laser Scan software. For the conventional model, themesio-distal width, intercanine width, and intermolar width were measured using digital calipers; in the 3D digital study model they were measured using software. There were no significant differences between the mesio-distal width, intercanine width, and intermolar width measurments between the conventional and 3D digital study models (p>0.05). Thus, measurements using 3D digital study models are as accurate as those obtained from conventional study models

Modeling and cellular studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

Testing the applicability of mathematical models with carefully designed experiments is a powerful tool in the investigations of the effects of ionizing radiation on cells. The modeling and cellular studies complement each other, for modeling provides guidance for designing critical experiments which must provide definitive results, while the experiments themselves provide new input to the model. Based on previous experimental results the model for the accumulation of damage in Chlamydomonas reinhardi has been extended to include various multiple two-event combinations. Split dose survival experiments have shown that models tested to date predict most but not all the observed behavior. Stationary-phase mammalian cells, required for tests of other aspects of the model, have been shown to be at different points in the cell cycle depending on how they were forced to stop proliferating. These cultures also demonstrate different capacities for repair of sublethal radiation damage

BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

1988-01-01

BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

1987-01-01

BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Martinson, Douglas G.; Rind, David; Parkinson, Claire

1993-01-01

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

Statistically significant climate responses to the solar variability are found in Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and in the tropical circulation. This study is based on the statistical analysis of numerical simulations with ModelE version of the chemistry coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The low frequency large scale variability of the winter and summer circulation is described by the NAM, the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of geopotential heights. The newly defined seasonal annular modes and its dynamical significance in the stratosphere and troposphere in the GISS ModelE is shown and compared with those in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both the model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum

Model quality and safety studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, K.E.

1997-01-01

The paper describes the EC initiative on model quality assessment and emphasizes some of the problems encountered in the selection of data from field tests used in the evaluation process. Further, it discusses the impact of model uncertainties in safety studies of industrial plants. The model...... that most of these have never been through a procedure of evaluation, but nonetheless are used to assist in making decisions that may directly affect the safety of the public and the environment. As a major funder of European research on major industrial hazards, DGXII is conscious of the importance......-tain model is appropriate for use in solving a given problem. Further, the findings from the REDIPHEM project related to dense gas dispersion will be highlighted. Finally, the paper will discuss the need for model quality assessment in safety studies....

Assessing Guilt toward the Former Spouse

Science.gov (United States)

Wietzker, Anne; Buysse, Ann

2012-01-01

Divorce is often accompanied by feelings of guilt toward the former spouse. So far, no scale has been available to measure such feelings. For this purpose, the authors developed the Guilt in Separation Scale (GiSS). Content validity was assured by using experts and lay experts to generate and select items. Exploratory analyses were run on samples…

Historical and Possible Future Changes in Permafrost and Active Layer Thickness in Alaska: Implications to Landscape Changes and Permafrost Carbon Pool.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchenko, S. S.; Helene, G.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

The Soil Temperature and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) Gridded Data was developed to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4 fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska. To develop this database, we used the process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL2 developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The climate forcing data for simulations were developed by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP, http://www.snap.uaf.edu/). These data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the five model averaged data were derived from the five CMIP5/AR5 IPCC Global Circulation Models that performed the best in Alaska and other northern regions: NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3. A composite of all five-model outputs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used in these particular permafrost dynamics simulations. Data sets were downscaled to a 771 m resolution, using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. Additional input data (snow characteristics, soil thermal properties, soil water content, organic matter accumulation or its loss due to fire, etc.) came from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) and the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem COde) model simulations. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of seasonally thawed soils within the 4.75 upper meters (original TEM soil column) across the Alaska domain. Simulations of future changes in permafrost indicate that, by the end of the 21st century, late-Holocene permafrost in Alaska will be actively thawing at all locations and that some Late Pleistocene carbon-rich peatlands underlain by permafrost will

Aerosols at the poles: an AeroCom Phase II multi-model evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Sand

2017-10-01

experiments with one of the AeroCom models (GISS modelE to investigate how regional emissions of BC and sulfate and the lifetime of BC influence the Arctic and Antarctic AOD. A doubling of emissions in eastern Asia results in a 33 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. A doubling of the BC lifetime results in a 39 % increase in Arctic AOD of BC. However, these radical changes still fall within the AeroCom model range.

Studying shocks in model astrophysical flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakrabarti, S.K.

1989-01-01

We briefly discuss some properties of the shocks in the existing models for quasi two-dimensional astrophysical flows. All of these models which allow the study of shock analytically have some unphysical characteristics due to inherent assumptions made. We propose a hybrid model for a thin flow which has fewer unpleasant features and is suitable for the study of shocks. (author). 5 refs

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Dorothy; Bauer, Susanne E.; Del Genio, Anthony; Faluvegi, Greg; McConnell, Joseph R.; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ronald L.; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto; Schmidt, Gavin A.;

Kuala Kemaman hydraulic model study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul Kadir Ishak

2005-01-01

There The problems facing the area of Kuala Kemaman are siltation and erosion at shoreline. The objectives of study are to assess the best alignment of the groyne alignment, to ascertain the most stable shoreline regime and to investigate structural measures to overcome the erosion. The scope of study are data collection, wave analysis, hydrodynamic simulation and sediment transport simulation. Numerical models MIKE 21 are used - MIKE 21 NSW, for wind-wave model, which describes the growth, decay and transformation of wind-generated waves and swell in nearshore areas. The study takes into account effects of refraction and shoaling due to varying depth, energy dissipation due to bottom friction and wave breaking, MIKE 21 HD - modelling system for 2D free-surface flow which to stimulate the hydraulics phenomena in estuaries, coastal areas and seas. Predicted tidal elevation and waves (radiation stresses) are considered into study while wind is not considered. MIKE 21 ST - the system that calculates the rates of non-cohesive (sand) sediment transport for both pure content and combined waves and current situation

Comparison of Bolton analysis and Little’s irregularity index on laser scanned three-dimensional digital study models with conventional study models

Science.gov (United States)

Kurnia, H.; Noerhadi, N. A. I.

2017-08-01

Three-dimensional digital study models were introduced following advances in digital technology. This study was carried out to assess the reliability of digital study models scanned by a laser scanning device newly assembled. The aim of this study was to compare the digital study models and conventional models. Twelve sets of dental impressions were taken from patients with mild-to-moderate crowding. The impressions were taken twice, one with alginate and the other with polyvinylsiloxane. The alginate impressions were made into conventional models, and the polyvinylsiloxane impressions were scanned to produce digital models. The mesiodistal tooth width and Little’s irregularity index (LII) were measured manually with digital calipers on the conventional models and digitally on the digital study models. Bolton analysis was performed on each study models. Each method was carried out twice to check for intra-observer variability. The reproducibility (comparison of the methods) was assessed using independent-sample t-tests. The mesiodistal tooth width between conventional and digital models did not significantly differ (p > 0.05). Independent-sample t-tests did not identify statistically significant differences for Bolton analysis and LII (p = 0.603 for Bolton and p = 0894 for LII). The measurements of the digital study models are as accurate as those of the conventional models.

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Geographic Information Systems: Tools for Displaying In-Library Use Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren H. Mandel

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In-library use data is crucial for modern libraries to understand the full spectrum of patron use, including patron self-service activities, circulation, and reference statistics. Rather than using tables and charts to display use data, a geographic information system (GIS facilitates a more visually appealing graphical display of the data in the form of a map. GISs have been used by library and information science (LIS researchers and practitioners to create maps that display analyses of service area populations and demographics, facilities space management issues, spatial distribution of in-library use of materials, planned branch consolidations, and so on. The “seating sweeps” method allows researchers and librarians to collect in-library use data regarding where patrons are locating themselves within the library and what they are doing at those locations, such as sitting and reading, studying in a group, or socializing. This paper proposes a GIS as a tool to visually display in-library use data collected via “seating sweeps” of a library. By using a GIS to store, manage, and display the data, researchers and librarians can create visually appealing maps that show areas of heavy use and evidence of the use and value of the library for a community. Example maps are included to facilitate the reader’s understanding of the possibilities afforded by using GISs in LIS research.

Neonatal Seizure Models to Study Epileptogenesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuka Kasahara

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Current therapeutic strategies for epilepsy include anti-epileptic drugs and surgical treatments that are mainly focused on the suppression of existing seizures rather than the occurrence of the first spontaneous seizure. These symptomatic treatments help a certain proportion of patients, but these strategies are not intended to clarify the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying the primary process of epilepsy development, i.e., epileptogenesis. Epileptogenic changes include reorganization of neural and glial circuits, resulting in the formation of an epileptogenic focus. To achieve the goal of developing “anti-epileptogenic” drugs, we need to clarify the step-by-step mechanisms underlying epileptogenesis for patients whose seizures are not controllable with existing “anti-epileptic” drugs. Epileptogenesis has been studied using animal models of neonatal seizures because such models are useful for studying the latent period before the occurrence of spontaneous seizures and the lowering of the seizure threshold. Further, neonatal seizure models are generally easy to handle and can be applied for in vitro studies because cells in the neonatal brain are suitable for culture. Here, we review two animal models of neonatal seizures for studying epileptogenesis and discuss their features, specifically focusing on hypoxia-ischemia (HI-induced seizures and febrile seizures (FSs. Studying these models will contribute to identifying the potential therapeutic targets and biomarkers of epileptogenesis.

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.; Nenes, Athanasios; Adams, Peter J.; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

Demonstration of the Energy Component of the Installation Master Plan Using the Net Zero Energy Planner Tool

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-07

with conversations with stakeholders and data from sources such as maps, geographic information systems (GISs), and spreadsheets obtained in a pre...data come from Spatial Data Standards for Facilities, Infrastructure, and Environment (SDSFIE) compliant GIS, usually obtained from the installation...etc.), biogas , or synthetic gas need to be considered as part of the mix during distribution and supply optimiza- tion. They are almost always more

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

The impacts of climate change on agriculture in Manitoba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mooney, S.; Arthur, L.M.

1990-01-01

A study was carried out to examine the potential effects of a doubled carbon dioxide climate change scenario on gross margins received from cropping enterprises and the patterns of crop production in Manitoba, Canada. The 1987 run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) was chosen to supply climatic data. Models were developed for yield changes in existing crops, crop migration, and economic impacts. Three scenarios were considered: scenario 1 using historical seeding dates and climates, scenario 2 using historical seeding dates and a flat 3 degree C temperature increase, and scenario 3 where seeding is advanced 14 days and temperatures increase by 3 degree C. The results suggest that climatic warming will have a beneficial effect on the cropping sector in Manitoba. Gross margins are 53% greater in scenario 2 and 190% greater in scenario 3 when the increased area of productive land is considered. Wider cultivation of higher value crops offsets the negative effect of decreased yields of other crops. The changed climate will favour the introduction of longer maturing varieties of existing crops, greater commerical production of existing crops such as sunflowers, soybeans and corn, and the introduction of totally new crops such as sorghum. 26 refs., 1 tab

Example of emergency response model evaluation of studies using the Mathew/Adpic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickerson, M.H.; Lange, R.

1986-04-01

This report summarizes model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC transport and diffusion models during the past ten years. These models support the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability, an emergency response service for atmospheric releases of nuclear material. Field studies involving tracer releases used in these studies cover a broad range of meteorology, terrain and tracer release heights, the three most important aspects of estimating air concentration values resulting from airborne releases of toxic material. Results of these studies show that these models can estimate air concentration values within a factor of 2 20% to 50% of the time and a factor of 5 40% to 80% of the time. As the meterology and terrain become more complex and the release height of the tracer is increased, the accuracy of the model calculations degrades. This band of uncertainty appears to correctly represent the capability of these models at this time. A method for estimating angular uncertainty in the model calculations is described and used to suggest alternative methods for evaluating emergency response models

Mathematical modelling with case studies using Maple and Matlab

CERN Document Server

Barnes, B

2014-01-01

Introduction to Mathematical ModelingMathematical models An overview of the book Some modeling approaches Modeling for decision makingCompartmental Models Introduction Exponential decay and radioactivity Case study: detecting art forgeries Case study: Pacific rats colonize New Zealand Lake pollution models Case study: Lake Burley Griffin Drug assimilation into the blood Case study: dull, dizzy, or dead? Cascades of compartments First-order linear DEs Equilibrium points and stability Case study: money, money, money makes the world go aroundModels of Single PopulationsExponential growth Density-

Climate Dynamics and Hysteresis at Low and High Obliquity

Science.gov (United States)

Colose, C.; Del Genio, A. D.; Way, M.

2017-12-01

We explore the large-scale climate dynamics at low and high obliquity for an Earth-like planet using the ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) 3-D General Circulation model being developed at NASA GISS as part of the Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) initiative. We highlight the role of ocean heat storage and transport in determining the seasonal cycle at high obliquity, and describe the large-scale circulation and resulting regional climate patterns using both aquaplanet and Earth topographical boundary conditions. Finally, we contrast the hysteresis structure to varying CO2 concentration for a low and high obliquity planet near the outer edge of the habitable zone. We discuss the prospects for habitability for a high obliquity planet susceptible to global glaciation.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1990-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

Mixed models in cerebral ischemia study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The data modeling from longitudinal studies stands out in the current scientific scenario, especially in the areas of health and biological sciences, which induces a correlation between measurements for the same observed unit. Thus, the modeling of the intra-individual dependency is required through the choice of a covariance structure that is able to receive and accommodate the sample variability. However, the lack of methodology for correlated data analysis may result in an increased occurrence of type I or type II errors and underestimate/overestimate the standard errors of the model estimates. In the present study, a Gaussian mixed model was adopted for the variable response latency of an experiment investigating the memory deficits in animals subjected to cerebral ischemia when treated with fish oil (FO. The model parameters estimation was based on maximum likelihood methods. Based on the restricted likelihood ratio test and information criteria, the autoregressive covariance matrix was adopted for errors. The diagnostic analyses for the model were satisfactory, since basic assumptions and results obtained corroborate with biological evidence; that is, the effectiveness of the FO treatment to alleviate the cognitive effects caused by cerebral ischemia was found.

Model Servqual Dengan Pendekatan Structural Equation Modeling (Studi Pada Mahasiswa Sistem Informasi)

OpenAIRE

Nurfaizal, Yusmedi

2015-01-01

Penelitian ini berjudul “MODEL SERVQUAL DENGAN PENDEKATAN STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING (Studi Pada Mahasiswa Sistem Informasi)”. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui model Servqual dengan pendekatan Structural Equation Modeling pada mahasiswa sistem informasi. Peneliti memutuskan untuk mengambil sampel sebanyak 100 responden. Untuk menguji model digunakan analisis SEM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tangibility, reliability responsiveness, assurance dan emphaty mempunyai pengaruh...

Air Pollution Exposure Modeling for Health Studies | Science ...

Science.gov (United States)

Dr. Michael Breen is leading the development of air pollution exposure models, integrated with novel personal sensor technologies, to improve exposure and risk assessments for individuals in health studies. He is co-investigator for multiple health studies assessing the exposure and effects of air pollutants. These health studies include participants with asthma, diabetes, and coronary artery disease living in various U.S. cities. He has developed, evaluated, and applied novel exposure modeling and time-activity tools, which includes the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI), GPS-based Microenvironment Tracker (MicroTrac) and Exposure Tracker models. At this seminar, Dr. Breen will present the development and application of these models to predict individual-level personal exposures to particulate matter (PM) for two health studies in central North Carolina. These health studies examine the association between PM and adverse health outcomes for susceptible individuals. During Dr. Breen’s visit, he will also have the opportunity to establish additional collaborations with researchers at Harvard University that may benefit from the use of exposure models for cohort health studies. These research projects that link air pollution exposure with adverse health outcomes benefit EPA by developing model-predicted exposure-dose metrics for individuals in health studies to improve the understanding of exposure-response behavior of air pollutants, and to reduce participant

Wave Height and Water Level Variability on Lakes Michigan and St Clair

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

Observations: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/sose/glwx_activity.html 4. NASA Atlas of Extratropical Storm Tracks: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks...term meteorological, ice, wave, and water level measurements. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Base flood elevation Coastal flood Extratropical storms Great...Box 1027 Detroit, MI 48231-1027 ERDC/CHL TR-12-23 ii Abstract The Great Lakes are subject to coastal flooding as a result of severe storms

A Study of Simple Diffraction Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Agerkvist, Finn

In this paper two simple methods for cabinet edge diffraction are examined. Calculations with both models are compared with more sophisticated theoretical models and with measured data. The parameters involved are studied and their importance for normal loudspeaker box designs is examined....

Representation of Nucleation Mode Microphysics in a Global Aerosol Model with Sectional Microphysics

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Y. H.; Pierce, J. R.; Adams, P. J.

2013-01-01

In models, nucleation mode (1 nmnucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nm=Dp =70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp =10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above 700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost-layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by

NASA's Climate in a Box: Desktop Supercomputing for Open Scientific Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Wojcik, G. S.; Seablom, M. S.; Lee, T. J.; McConaughy, G. R.; Syed, R.; Oloso, A.; Kemp, E. M.; Greenseid, J.; Smith, R.

2009-12-01

designed for Linux operating systems (OS), the arrival of the WindowsHPC 2008 OS provides the opportunity to evaluate the use of a new platform on which to develop and port climate and earth science models. In particular, we are evaluating Microsoft's Visual Studio Integrated Developer Environment to determine its appropriateness for the climate modeling community. In the initial phases of this project, we have ported GEOS-5, WRF, GISS ModelE, and GFS to Linux on a CX1 and are in the process of porting WRF and ModelE to WindowsHPC 2008. Initial tests on the CX1 Linux OS indicate favorable comparisons in terms of performance and consistency of scientific results when compared with experiments executed on NASA high end systems. As in the past, NASA's large clusters will continue to be an important part of our objectives. We envision a seamless environment in which an investigator performs model development and testing on a desktop system and can seamlessly transfer execution to supercomputer clusters for production.

Mathematical study of mixing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagoutiere, F.; Despres, B.

1999-01-01

This report presents the construction and the study of a class of models that describe the behavior of compressible and non-reactive Eulerian fluid mixtures. Mixture models can have two different applications. Either they are used to describe physical mixtures, in the case of a true zone of extensive mixing (but then this modelization is incomplete and must be considered only as a point of departure for the elaboration of models of mixtures actually relevant). Either they are used to solve the problem of the numerical mixture. This problem appears during the discretization of an interface which separates fluids having laws of different state: the zone of numerical mixing is the set of meshes which cover the interface. The attention is focused on numerical mixtures, for which the hypothesis of non-miscibility (physics) will bring two equations (the sixth and the eighth of the system). It is important to emphasize that even in the case of the only numerical mixture, the presence in one and same place (same mesh) of several fluids have to be taken into account. This will be formalized by the possibility for mass fractions to take all values between 0 and 1. This is not at odds with the equations that derive from the hypothesis of non-miscibility. One way of looking at things is to consider that there are two scales of observation: the physical scale at which one observes the separation of fluids, and the numerical scale, given by the fineness of the mesh, to which a mixture appears. In this work, mixtures are considered from the mathematical angle (both in the elaboration phase and during their study). In particular, Chapter 5 shows a result of model degeneration for a non-extended mixing zone (case of an interface): this justifies the use of models in the case of numerical mixing. All these models are based on the classical model of non-viscous compressible fluids recalled in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, the central point of the elaboration of the class of models is

Study and discretization of kinetic models and fluid models at low Mach number

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dellacherie, Stephane

2011-01-01

This thesis summarizes our work between 1995 and 2010. It concerns the analysis and the discretization of Fokker-Planck or semi-classical Boltzmann kinetic models and of Euler or Navier-Stokes fluid models at low Mach number. The studied Fokker-Planck equation models the collisions between ions and electrons in a hot plasma, and is here applied to the inertial confinement fusion. The studied semi-classical Boltzmann equations are of two types. The first one models the thermonuclear reaction between a deuterium ion and a tritium ion producing an α particle and a neutron particle, and is also in our case used to describe inertial confinement fusion. The second one (known as the Wang-Chang and Uhlenbeck equations) models the transitions between electronic quantified energy levels of uranium and iron atoms in the AVLIS isotopic separation process. The basic properties of these two Boltzmann equations are studied, and, for the Wang-Chang and Uhlenbeck equations, a kinetic-fluid coupling algorithm is proposed. This kinetic-fluid coupling algorithm incited us to study the relaxation concept for gas and immiscible fluids mixtures, and to underline connections with classical kinetic theory. Then, a diphasic low Mach number model without acoustic waves is proposed to model the deformation of the interface between two immiscible fluids induced by high heat transfers at low Mach number. In order to increase the accuracy of the results without increasing computational cost, an AMR algorithm is studied on a simplified interface deformation model. These low Mach number studies also incited us to analyse on cartesian meshes the inaccuracy at low Mach number of Godunov schemes. Finally, the LBM algorithm applied to the heat equation is justified

Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isye Arieshanti

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

Geomagnetic field models for satellite angular motion studies

Science.gov (United States)

Ovchinnikov, M. Yu.; Penkov, V. I.; Roldugin, D. S.; Pichuzhkina, A. V.

2018-03-01

Four geomagnetic field models are discussed: IGRF, inclined, direct and simplified dipoles. Geomagnetic induction vector expressions are provided in different reference frames. Induction vector behavior is compared for different models. Models applicability for the analysis of satellite motion is studied from theoretical and engineering perspectives. Relevant satellite dynamics analysis cases using analytical and numerical techniques are provided. These cases demonstrate the benefit of a certain model for a specific dynamics study. Recommendations for models usage are summarized in the end.

Climatic warming and potential demands for irrigation water in southwest Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brklacich, M.

1990-01-01

The potential impacts of global warming on demand for irrigation water in southwestern Ontario are discussed. The climatic change scenarios considered derive from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model, which suggests that the frost-free season in southwestern Ontario will be extended from the current 166 days to 223 days under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The 1.76 million ha of agricultural land in southwestern Ontario was disaggregated into 365 unique land units, reflecting regional variability in soil quality, topography and climate. Analyses were conducted for individual crops on each of the land units, and results were aggregated to a regional level. Overall, a longer, warmer but relatively drier crop growing season could be expected in southwestern Ontario under this scenario. Climatic change impacts will vary from crop to crop, and will have a greater impact on corn yield than soybeans or wheat. Yield improvements stemming from irrigation should be greater with corn than with the other two crops. 16 refs., 1 tab

Climate and productivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, T.

1991-01-01

Agriculture and forestry, the major land-users in the Prairie provinces, will be greatly affected by shifts in site factors due to global climatic change. Forests are especially vulnerable to climate change because of the long-term nature of forest crops. According to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models (GCMs), greenhouse warming will push the southern limit for boreal forests northward by 470-920 km and 250-900 km, respectively. Forests in or near the transition zone will experience major impacts in productivity due to physiological stresses occurring in the ecotones. Enhanced degree day scenarios suggest that the climate will be suitable for grassland over much of the present boreal forest. Potential biomass productivity increases of up to 50% are possible, or could decrease from present levels if higher precipitation projected by the GCMs does not occur. Recommendations for mitigative action are presented for global warming, forests, water, wildlife and fisheries, national parks, and agriculture. Research on environmental impacts, and economic instruments for use in resource management are suggested. 15 refs

Experimental and modelling studies of infiltration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giudici, M.

2004-01-01

This presentation describes a study of infiltration in the unsaturated soil with the objective of estimating the recharge to a phreatic aquifer. The study area is at the border of the city of Milan (Northern Italy), which draws water for both domestic and industrial purposes from ground water resources located beneath the urban area. The rate of water pumping from the aquifer system has been varying during the XX century, depending upon the number of inhabitants and the development of industrial activities. This caused variations with time of the depth of the water table below the ground surface and in turn some emergencies: the two most prominent episodes correspond to the middle '70s, when the water table in the city centre was about 30 m below the undisturbed natural conditions, and to the last decade, when the water table has raised at a rate of approximately 1 m/year and caused infiltrations in deep constructions (garages and building foundations, the underground railways, etc.). We have developed four ground water flow models at different scales, which share some characteristics: they are based on quasi-3D approximation (horizontal flow in the aquifers and vertical flow in the aquitards), conservative finite-differences schemes for regular grid with square cells in the horizontal plane and are implemented with proprietary computer codes. Among the problems that were studied for the development of these models, I recall some numerical problems, related to the behaviour of the phreatic aquifer under conditions of strong exploitation. Model calibration and validation for ModMil has been performed with a two-stage process, i.e., using some of the available data for model calibration and the remaining data for model validation. The application of geophysical exploration techniques, in particular seismic and geo-electrical prospecting, has been very useful to complete the data and information on the hydro-geological structure obtained from stratigraphic logs

A SYSTEMATIC STUDY OF SOFTWARE QUALITY MODELS

OpenAIRE

Dr.Vilas. M. Thakare; Ashwin B. Tomar

2011-01-01

This paper aims to provide a basis for software quality model research, through a systematic study ofpapers. It identifies nearly seventy software quality research papers from journals and classifies paper asper research topic, estimation approach, study context and data set. The paper results combined withother knowledge provides support for recommendations in future software quality model research, toincrease the area of search for relevant studies, carefully select the papers within a set ...

Image based 3D city modeling : Comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. P. Singh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available 3D city model is a digital representation of the Earth’s surface and it’s related objects such as building, tree, vegetation, and some manmade feature belonging to urban area. The demand of 3D city modeling is increasing rapidly for various engineering and non-engineering applications. Generally four main image based approaches were used for virtual 3D city models generation. In first approach, researchers were used Sketch based modeling, second method is Procedural grammar based modeling, third approach is Close range photogrammetry based modeling and fourth approach is mainly based on Computer Vision techniques. SketchUp, CityEngine, Photomodeler and Agisoft Photoscan are the main softwares to represent these approaches respectively. These softwares have different approaches & methods suitable for image based 3D city modeling. Literature study shows that till date, there is no complete such type of comparative study available to create complete 3D city model by using images. This paper gives a comparative assessment of these four image based 3D modeling approaches. This comparative study is mainly based on data acquisition methods, data processing techniques and output 3D model products. For this research work, study area is the campus of civil engineering department, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee (India. This 3D campus acts as a prototype for city. This study also explains various governing parameters, factors and work experiences. This research work also gives a brief introduction, strengths and weakness of these four image based techniques. Some personal comment is also given as what can do or what can’t do from these softwares. At the last, this study shows; it concluded that, each and every software has some advantages and limitations. Choice of software depends on user requirements of 3D project. For normal visualization project, SketchUp software is a good option. For 3D documentation record, Photomodeler gives good

Mining Product Data Models: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina-Claudia DOLEAN

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents two case studies used to prove the validity of some data-flow mining algorithms. We proposed the data-flow mining algorithms because most part of mining algorithms focuses on the control-flow perspective. First case study uses event logs generated by an ERP system (Navision after we set several trackers on the data elements needed in the process analyzed; while the second case study uses the event logs generated by YAWL system. We offered a general solution of data-flow model extraction from different data sources. In order to apply the data-flow mining algorithms the event logs must comply a certain format (using InputOutput extension. But to respect this format, a set of conversion tools is needed. We depicted the conversion tools used and how we got the data-flow models. Moreover, the data-flow model is compared to the control-flow model.

Models hosts for the study of oral candidiasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Junqueira, Juliana Campos

2012-01-01

Oral candidiasis is an opportunistic infection caused by yeast of the Candida genus, primarily Candida albicans. It is generally associated with predisposing factors such as the use of immunosuppressive agents, antibiotics, prostheses, and xerostomia. The development of research in animal models is extremely important for understanding the nature of the fungal pathogenicity, host interactions, and treatment of oral mucosal Candida infections. Many oral candidiasis models in rats and mice have been developed with antibiotic administration, induction of xerostomia, treatment with immunosuppressive agents, or the use of germ-free animals, and all these models has both benefits and limitations. Over the past decade, invertebrate model hosts, including Galleria mellonella, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Drosophila melanogaster, have been used for the study of Candida pathogenesis. These invertebrate systems offer a number of advantages over mammalian vertebrate models, predominantly because they allow the study of strain collections without the ethical considerations associated with studies in mammals. Thus, the invertebrate models may be useful to understanding of pathogenicity of Candida isolates from the oral cavity, interactions of oral microorganisms, and study of new antifungal compounds for oral candidiasis.

INTERCARTO CONFERENCES

OpenAIRE

Vladimir Tikunov

2010-01-01

The InterCarto conferences are thematically organized to target one of the most pressing problems of modern geography—creation and use of geographical information systems (GISs) as effective tools for achieving sustainable development of territories. Over the years, from 1994 to 2009, 1872 participants from 51 countries and 156 cities, who made 1494 reports, attended the conferences. There were 1508 participants from 49 regions of Russia making 1340 presentations. The conferences hosted 31 di...

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1991-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

A mixed model framework for teratology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Braeken, Johan; Tuerlinckx, Francis

2009-10-01

A mixed model framework is presented to model the characteristic multivariate binary anomaly data as provided in some teratology studies. The key features of the model are the incorporation of covariate effects, a flexible random effects distribution by means of a finite mixture, and the application of copula functions to better account for the relation structure of the anomalies. The framework is motivated by data of the Boston Anticonvulsant Teratogenesis study and offers an integrated approach to investigate substantive questions, concerning general and anomaly-specific exposure effects of covariates, interrelations between anomalies, and objective diagnostic measurement.

Adolescents Family Models : A Cross-Cultural Study

OpenAIRE

Mayer, Boris

2009-01-01

This study explores and compares the family models of adolescents across ten cultures using a typological and multilevel approach. Thereby, it aims to empirically contribute to Kagitcibasi s (2007) theory of family change. This theory postulates the existence of three ideal-typical family models across cultures: a family model of independence prevailing in Western societies, a family model of (total) interdependence prevailing in non-industrialized agrarian cultures, and as a synthesis of the...

Studies of Catalytic Model Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holse, Christian

The overall topic of this thesis is within the field of catalysis, were model systems of different complexity have been studied utilizing a multipurpose Ultra High Vacuum chamber (UHV). The thesis falls in two different parts. First a simple model system in the form of a ruthenium single crystal...... of the Cu/ZnO nanoparticles is highly relevant to industrial methanol synthesis for which the direct interaction of Cu and ZnO nanocrystals synergistically boost the catalytic activity. The dynamical behavior of the nanoparticles under reducing and oxidizing environments were studied by means of ex situ X......-ray Photoelectron Electron Spectroscopy (XPS) and in situ Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). The surface composition of the nanoparticles changes reversibly as the nanoparticles exposed to cycles of high-pressure oxidation and reduction (200 mbar). Furthermore, the presence of metallic Zn is observed by XPS...

Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hiemstra, Djoerd

2008-01-01

This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

A model study of bridge hydraulics

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-01

Most flood studies in the United States use the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering : Centers River Analysis System) computer program. This study was carried out to compare results of HEC-RAS : bridge modeling with laboratory e...

Modelling and Analysis of Smart Grid: A Stochastic Model Checking Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yuksel, Ender; Zhu, Huibiao; Nielson, Hanne Riis

2012-01-01

that require novel methods and applications. In this context, an important issue is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese Smart Grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy......Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology functions to the physical elements of a system for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... consumption. We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

Fostering Transfer of Study Strategies: A Spiral Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Denise M.; Clery, Carolsue

1994-01-01

Describes the design and implementation of a Spiral Model for the introduction and repeated practice of study strategies, based on Taba's model for social studies. In a college reading and studies strategies course, key strategies were introduced early and used through several sets of humanities and social and physical sciences readings. (Contains…

Parametric study of a thorium model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lourenco, M.C.; Lipztein, J.L.; Szwarcwald, C.L.

1997-01-01

Full text. Models for radionuclides distribution in the human body and dosimetry involve assumptions on the biokinetic behaviour of the material among compartments representing organs and tissues in the body. The lack of knowledge about the metabolic behaviour of a radionuclide represents a factor of uncertainty in estimates of committed dose equivalent. An important problem in biokinetic modeling is the correct assignment of transfer coefficients and biological half-lives to body compartments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the variability in the activities of the body compartments in relation to the variations in the transfer coefficients and compartments biological half-lives in a certain model. A thorium specific recycling model for continuous exposure was used. Multiple regression analysis methods were applied to analyze the results

Nuclear clustering - a cluster core model study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paul Selvi, G.; Nandhini, N.; Balasubramaniam, M.

2015-01-01

Nuclear clustering, similar to other clustering phenomenon in nature is a much warranted study, since it would help us in understanding the nature of binding of the nucleons inside the nucleus, closed shell behaviour when the system is highly deformed, dynamics and structure at extremes. Several models account for the clustering phenomenon of nuclei. We present in this work, a cluster core model study of nuclear clustering in light mass nuclei

Phase field model for the study of boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruyer, P.

2006-07-01

This study concerns both the modeling and the numerical simulation of boiling flows. First we propose a review concerning nucleate boiling at high wall heat flux and focus more particularly on the current understanding of the boiling crisis. From this analysis we deduce a motivation for the numerical simulation of bubble growth dynamics. The main and remaining part of this study is then devoted to the development and analyze of a phase field model for the liquid-vapor flows with phase change. We propose a thermodynamic quasi-compressible formulation whose properties match the one required for the numerical study envisaged. The system of governing equations is a thermodynamically consistent regularization of the sharp interface model, that is the advantage of the di use interface models. We show that the thickness of the interface transition layer can be defined independently from the thermodynamic description of the bulk phases, a property that is numerically attractive. We derive the kinetic relation that allows to analyze the consequences of the phase field formulation on the model of the dissipative mechanisms. Finally we study the numerical resolution of the model with the help of simulations of phase transition in simple configurations as well as of isothermal bubble dynamics. (author)

Study on geological environment model using geostatistics method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honda, Makoto; Suzuki, Makoto; Sakurai, Hideyuki; Iwasa, Kengo; Matsui, Hiroya

2005-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop the geostatistical procedure for modeling geological environments and to evaluate the quantitative relationship between the amount of information and the reliability of the model using the data sets obtained in the surface-based investigation phase (Phase 1) of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory Project. This study lasts for three years from FY2004 to FY2006 and this report includes the research in FY2005 as the second year of three-year study. In FY2005 research, the hydrogeological model was built as well as FY2004 research using the data obtained from the deep boreholes (HDB-6, 7 and 8) and the ground magnetotelluric (AMT) survey which were executed in FY2004 in addition to the data sets used in the first year of study. Above all, the relationship between the amount of information and the reliability of the model was demonstrated through a comparison of the models at each step which corresponds to the investigation stage in each FY. Furthermore, the statistical test was applied for detecting the difference of basic statistics of various data due to geological features with a view to taking the geological information into the modeling procedures. (author)

Models for the study of Clostridium difficile infection

Science.gov (United States)

Best, Emma L.; Freeman, Jane; Wilcox, Mark H.

2012-01-01

Models of Clostridium difficile infection (C. difficile) have been used extensively for Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) research. The hamster model of C. difficile infection has been most extensively employed for the study of C. difficile and this has been used in many different areas of research, including the induction of C. difficile, the testing of new treatments, population dynamics and characterization of virulence. Investigations using in vitro models for C. difficile introduced the concept of colonization resistance, evaluated the role of antibiotics in C. difficile development, explored population dynamics and have been useful in the evaluation of C. difficile treatments. Experiments using models have major advantages over clinical studies and have been indispensible in furthering C. difficile research. It is important for future study programs to carefully consider the approach to use and therefore be better placed to inform the design and interpretation of clinical studies. PMID:22555466

Models to Study Colonisation and Colonisation Resistance

OpenAIRE

Boreau, H.; Hartmann, L.; Karjalainen, T.; Rowland, I.; Wilkinson, M. H. F.

2011-01-01

This review describes various in vivo animal models (humans; conventional animals administered antimicrobial agents and animals species used; gnotobiotic and germ-free animals), in vitro models (luminal and mucosal), and in silico and mathematicalmodels which have been developed to study colonisation and colonisation resistance and effects of gut flora on hosts. Where applicable, the advantages and disadvantages of each model are discussed.Keywords: colonisation, colonisation resistance, anim...

Wildland Fire Behaviour Case Studies and Fuel Models for Landscape-Scale Fire Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul-Antoine Santoni

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents the extension of a physical model for the spreading of surface fire at landscape scale. In previous work, the model was validated at laboratory scale for fire spreading across litters. The model was then modified to consider the structure of actual vegetation and was included in the wildland fire calculation system Forefire that allows converting the two-dimensional model of fire spread to three dimensions, taking into account spatial information. Two wildland fire behavior case studies were elaborated and used as a basis to test the simulator. Both fires were reconstructed, paying attention to the vegetation mapping, fire history, and meteorological data. The local calibration of the simulator required the development of appropriate fuel models for shrubland vegetation (maquis for use with the model of fire spread. This study showed the capabilities of the simulator during the typical drought season characterizing the Mediterranean climate when most wildfires occur.

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

2010-01-01

Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

Consequence model of the German reactor safety study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.; Aldrich, D.; Burkart, K.; Horsch, F.; Hubschmann, W.; Schueckler, M.; Vogt, S.

1979-01-01

The consequency model developed for phase A of the German Reactor Safety Study (RSS) is similar in many respects to its counterpart in WASH-1400. As in that previous study, the model describes the atmosphere dispersion and transport of radioactive material released from the containment during a postulated reactor accident, and predicts its interaction with and influence on man. Differences do exist between the two models however, for the following reasons: (1) to more adequately reflect central European conditions, (2) to include improved submodels, and (3) to apply additional data and knowledge that have become available since publication of WASH-1400. The consequence model as used in phase A of the German RSS is described, highlighting differences between it and the U.S. model

Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data: a comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Song Joon J

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the growing abundance of microarray data, statistical methods are increasingly needed to integrate results across studies. Two common approaches for meta-analysis of microarrays include either combining gene expression measures across studies or combining summaries such as p-values, probabilities or ranks. Here, we compare two Bayesian meta-analysis models that are analogous to these methods. Results Two Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data have recently been introduced. The first model combines standardized gene expression measures across studies into an overall mean, accounting for inter-study variability, while the second combines probabilities of differential expression without combining expression values. Both models produce the gene-specific posterior probability of differential expression, which is the basis for inference. Since the standardized expression integration model includes inter-study variability, it may improve accuracy of results versus the probability integration model. However, due to the small number of studies typical in microarray meta-analyses, the variability between studies is challenging to estimate. The probability integration model eliminates the need to model variability between studies, and thus its implementation is more straightforward. We found in simulations of two and five studies that combining probabilities outperformed combining standardized gene expression measures for three comparison values: the percent of true discovered genes in meta-analysis versus individual studies; the percent of true genes omitted in meta-analysis versus separate studies, and the number of true discovered genes for fixed levels of Bayesian false discovery. We identified similar results when pooling two independent studies of Bacillus subtilis. We assumed that each study was produced from the same microarray platform with only two conditions: a treatment and control, and that the data sets

Urban Studies: A Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Terry L.; Sundeen, Richard

1979-01-01

The urban studies learning model described in this article was found to increase students' self-esteem, imbue a more flexible and open perspective, contribute to the capacity for self-direction, produce increases on the feeling reactivity, spontaneity, and acceptance of aggression scales, and expand interpersonal competence. (Author/WI)

The ARM-GCSS Intercomparison Study of Single-Column Models and Cloud System Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cederwall, R.T.; Rodriques, D.J.; Krueger, S.K.; Randall, D.A.

1999-01-01

The Single-Column Model (SCM) Working Group (WC) and the Cloud Working Group (CWG) in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program have begun a collaboration with the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) WGs. The forcing data sets derived from the special ARM radiosonde measurements made during the SCM Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs), the wealth of cloud and related data sets collected by the ARM Program, and the ARM infrastructure support of the SCM WG are of great value to GCSS. In return, GCSS brings the efforts of an international group of cloud system modelers to bear on ARM data sets and ARM-related scientific questions. The first major activity of the ARM-GCSS collaboration is a model intercomparison study involving SCMs and cloud system models (CSMs), also known as cloud-resolving or cloud-ensemble models. The SCM methodologies developed in the ARM Program have matured to the point where an intercomparison will help identify the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. CSM simulations will bring much additional information about clouds to evaluate cloud parameterizations used in the SCMs. CSMs and SCMs have been compared successfully in previous GCSS intercomparison studies for tropical conditions. The ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site offers an opportunity for GCSS to test their models in continental, mid-latitude conditions. The Summer 1997 SCM IOP has been chosen since it provides a wide range of summertime weather events that will be a challenging test of these models

Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Metselaar, K.

1999-01-01

Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize

A Case Study Application Of Time Study Model In Paint ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents a case study in the development and application of a time study model in a paint manufacturing company. The organization specializes in the production of different grades of paint and paint containers. The paint production activities include; weighing of raw materials, drying of raw materials, dissolving ...

A Comparative Study Of Stock Price Forecasting Using Nonlinear Models

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Diteboho Xaba

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study compared the in-sample forecasting accuracy of three forecasting nonlinear models namely: the Smooth Transition Regression (STR model, the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR model and the Markov-switching Autoregressive (MS-AR model. Nonlinearity tests were used to confirm the validity of the assumptions of the study. The study used model selection criteria, SBC to select the optimal lag order and for the selection of appropriate models. The Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE served as the error measures in evaluating the forecasting ability of the models. The MS-AR models proved to perform well with lower error measures as compared to LSTR and TAR models in most cases.

Pitting corrosion of copper. Further model studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taxen, C.

2002-08-01

The work presented in this report is a continuation and expansion of a previous study. The aim of the work is to provide background information about pitting corrosion of copper for a safety analysis of copper canisters for final deposition of radioactive waste. A mathematical model for the propagation of corrosion pits is used to estimate the conditions required for stationary propagation of a localised anodic corrosion process. The model uses equilibrium data for copper and its corrosion products and parameters for the aqueous mass transport of dissolved species. In the present work we have, in the model, used a more extensive set of aqueous and solid compounds and equilibrium data from a different source. The potential dependence of pitting in waters with different compositions is studied in greater detail. More waters have been studied and single parameter variations in the composition of the water have been studied over wider ranges of concentration. The conclusions drawn in the previous study are not contradicted by the present results. However, the combined effect of potential and water composition on the possibility of pitting corrosion is more complex than was realised. In the previous study we found what seemed to be a continuous aggravation of a pitting situation by increasing potentials. The present results indicate that pitting corrosion can take place only over a certain potential range and that there is an upper potential limit for pitting as well as a lower. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the model gives meaningful predictions of the minimum pitting potential also when relatively large errors in the input parameters are allowed for

Campus network security model study

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yong-ku; Song, Li-ren

2011-12-01

Campus network security is growing importance, Design a very effective defense hacker attacks, viruses, data theft, and internal defense system, is the focus of the study in this paper. This paper compared the firewall; IDS based on the integrated, then design of a campus network security model, and detail the specific implementation principle.

Mathematical modelling a case studies approach

CERN Document Server

Illner, Reinhard; McCollum, Samantha; Roode, Thea van

2004-01-01

Mathematical modelling is a subject without boundaries. It is the means by which mathematics becomes useful to virtually any subject. Moreover, modelling has been and continues to be a driving force for the development of mathematics itself. This book explains the process of modelling real situations to obtain mathematical problems that can be analyzed, thus solving the original problem. The presentation is in the form of case studies, which are developed much as they would be in true applications. In many cases, an initial model is created, then modified along the way. Some cases are familiar, such as the evaluation of an annuity. Others are unique, such as the fascinating situation in which an engineer, armed only with a slide rule, had 24 hours to compute whether a valve would hold when a temporary rock plug was removed from a water tunnel. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises and some suggestions for class projects. Some projects are extensive, as with the explorations of the predator-prey model; oth...

Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

Science.gov (United States)

Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

2018-02-01

Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Adjoint sensitivity of global cloud droplet number to aerosol and dynamical parameters

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V. A. Karydis

2012-10-01

Full Text Available We present the development of the adjoint of a comprehensive cloud droplet formation parameterization for use in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies. The adjoint efficiently and accurately calculates the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC to all parameterization inputs (e.g., updraft velocity, water uptake coefficient, aerosol number and hygroscopicity with a single execution. The adjoint is then integrated within three dimensional (3-D aerosol modeling frameworks to quantify the sensitivity of CDNC formation globally to each parameter. Sensitivities are computed for year-long executions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM, using wind fields computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS Global Circulation Model (GCM II', and the GEOS-Chem CTM, driven by meteorological input from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO. We find that over polluted (pristine areas, CDNC is more sensitive to updraft velocity and uptake coefficient (aerosol number and hygroscopicity. Over the oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, addition of anthropogenic or biomass burning aerosol is predicted to increase CDNC in contrast to coarse-mode sea salt which tends to decrease CDNC. Over the Southern Oceans, CDNC is most sensitive to sea salt, which is the main aerosol component of the region. Globally, CDNC is predicted to be less sensitive to changes in the hygroscopicity of the aerosols than in their concentration with the exception of dust where CDNC is very sensitive to particle hydrophilicity over arid areas. Regionally, the sensitivities differ considerably between the two frameworks and quantitatively reveal why the models differ considerably in their indirect forcing estimates.

Physical Model Method for Seismic Study of Concrete Dams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Roşca

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The study of the dynamic behaviour of concrete dams by means of the physical model method is very useful to understand the failure mechanism of these structures to action of the strong earthquakes. Physical model method consists in two main processes. Firstly, a study model must be designed by a physical modeling process using the dynamic modeling theory. The result is a equations system of dimensioning the physical model. After the construction and instrumentation of the scale physical model a structural analysis based on experimental means is performed. The experimental results are gathered and are available to be analysed. Depending on the aim of the research may be designed an elastic or a failure physical model. The requirements for the elastic model construction are easier to accomplish in contrast with those required for a failure model, but the obtained results provide narrow information. In order to study the behaviour of concrete dams to strong seismic action is required the employment of failure physical models able to simulate accurately the possible opening of joint, sliding between concrete blocks and the cracking of concrete. The design relations for both elastic and failure physical models are based on dimensional analysis and consist of similitude relations among the physical quantities involved in the phenomenon. The using of physical models of great or medium dimensions as well as its instrumentation creates great advantages, but this operation involves a large amount of financial, logistic and time resources.

Leggett's noncontextual model studied with neutrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durstberger-Rennhofer, K.; Sponar, S.; Badurek, G.; Hasegawa, Y.; Schmitzer, C.; Bartosik, H.; Klepp, J.

2011-01-01

Full text: It is a long-lasting debate whether nature can be described by deterministic hidden variable theories (HVT) underlying quantum mechanics (QM). Bell inequalities for local HVT as well as the Kochen- Specker theorem for non-contextual models stress the conflict between these alternative theories and QM. Leggett showed that even nonlocal hidden variable models are incompatible with quantum predictions. Neutron interferometry and polarimetry are very proper tools to analyse the behaviour of single neutron systems, where entanglement is created between different degrees of freedom (e.g., spin/ path, spin/energy) and thus quantum contextuality can be studied. We report the first experimental test of a contextual model of quantum mechanics a la Leggett, which deals with definiteness of measurement results before the measurements. The results show a discrepancy between our model and quantum mechanics of more than 7 standard deviations and confirm quantum indefiniteness under the contextual condition. (author)

Hawaii Solar Integration Study: Solar Modeling Developments and Study Results; Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orwig, K.; Corbus, D.; Piwko, R.; Schuerger, M.; Matsuura, M.; Roose, L.

2012-12-01

The Hawaii Solar Integration Study (HSIS) is a follow-up to the Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study completed in 2010. HSIS focuses on the impacts of higher penetrations of solar energy on the electrical grid and on other generation. HSIS goes beyond the island of Oahu and investigates Maui as well. The study examines reserve strategies, impacts on thermal unit commitment and dispatch, utilization of energy storage, renewable energy curtailment, and other aspects of grid reliability and operation. For the study, high-frequency (2-second) solar power profiles were generated using a new combined Numerical Weather Prediction model/ stochastic-kinematic cloud model approach, which represents the 'sharp-edge' effects of clouds passing over solar facilities. As part of the validation process, the solar data was evaluated using a variety of analysis techniques including wavelets, power spectral densities, ramp distributions, extreme values, and cross correlations. This paper provides an overview of the study objectives, results of the solar profile validation, and study results.

Looking beyond general metrics for model comparison - lessons from an international model intercomparison study

Science.gov (United States)

de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Bouaziz, Laurène; De Niel, Jan; Brauer, Claudia; Dewals, Benjamin; Drogue, Gilles; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Grelier, Benjamin; Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Savenije, Hubert; Thirel, Guillaume; Willems, Patrick

2017-01-01

International collaboration between research institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Although model comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the comparison methods used, which focus too much on a good overall performance instead of focusing on a variety of specific events. In this study, we use an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events and characteristics. Eight international research groups calibrated their hourly model on the Ourthe catchment in Belgium and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe catchment and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments. The same protocol was followed for each model and an ensemble of best-performing parameter sets was selected. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), clear differences could be observed for specific events. We analysed the hydrographs of these specific events and conducted three types of statistical analyses on the entire time series: cumulative discharges, empirical extreme value distribution of the peak flows and flow duration curves for low flows. The results illustrate the relevance of including a very quick flow reservoir preceding the root zone storage to model peaks during low flows and including a slow reservoir in parallel with the fast reservoir to model the recession for the studied catchments. This intercomparison enhanced the understanding of the hydrological functioning of the catchment, in particular for low flows, and enabled to identify present knowledge gaps for other parts of the hydrograph. Above all, it helped to evaluate each model against a set of alternative models.

Overhead distribution line models for harmonics studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagpal, M.; Xu, W.; Dommel, H.W.

1994-01-01

Carson's formulae and Maxwell's potential coefficients are used for calculating the per unit length series impedances and shunt capacitances of the overhead lines. The per unit length values are then used for building the models, nominal pi-circuit, and equivalent pi-circuit at the harmonic frequencies. This paper studies the accuracy of these models for presenting the overhead distribution lines in steady-state harmonic solutions at frequencies up to 5 kHz. The models are verified with a field test on a 25 kV distribution line and the sensitivity of the models to ground resistivity, skin effect, and multiple grounding is reported.

QUALITY OF AN ACADEMIC STUDY PROGRAMME - EVALUATION MODEL

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Mirna Macur

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quality of an academic study programme is evaluated by many: employees (internal evaluation and by external evaluators: experts, agencies and organisations. Internal and external evaluation of an academic programme follow written structure that resembles on one of the quality models. We believe the quality models (mostly derived from EFQM excellence model don’t fit very well into non-profit activities, policies and programmes, because they are much more complex than environment, from which quality models derive from (for example assembly line. Quality of an academic study programme is very complex and understood differently by various stakeholders, so we present dimensional evaluation in the article. Dimensional evaluation, as opposed to component and holistic evaluation, is a form of analytical evaluation in which the quality of value of the evaluand is determined by looking at its performance on multiple dimensions of merit or evaluation criteria. First stakeholders of a study programme and their views, expectations and interests are presented, followed by evaluation criteria. They are both joined into the evaluation model revealing which evaluation criteria can and should be evaluated by which stakeholder. Main research questions are posed and research method for each dimension listed.

Parametric study of a thorium model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lourenco, M.C.; Lipsztein, J.L.; Szwarcwald, C.L.

2002-01-01

Models for radionuclides distribution in the human body and dosimetry involve assumptions on the biokinetic behavior of the material among compartments representing organs and tissues in the body. One of the most important problem in biokinetic modeling is the assignment of transfer coefficients and biological half-lives to body compartments. In Brazil there are many areas of high natural radioactivity, where the population is chronically exposed to radionuclides of the thorium series. The uncertainties of the thorium biokinetic model are a major cause of uncertainty in the estimates of the committed dose equivalent of the population living in high background areas. The purpose of this study is to discuss the variability in the thorium activities accumulated in the body compartments in relation to the variations in the transfer coefficients and compartments biological half-lives of a thorium-recycling model for continuous exposure. Multiple regression analysis methods were applied to analyze the results. (author)

Modeling studies of the Indo-Pacific warm pool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, T.P.; Schneider N.; Tyree, M.; Ritchie, J.; Ramanathan, V.; Sherwood, S.; Zhang, G.; Flatau, M.

1994-01-01

A wide variety of modeling studies are being conducted, aimed at understanding the interactions of clouds, radiation, and the ocean in the region of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the flywheel of the global climate system. These studies are designed to understand the important physical processes operating in the ocean and atmosphere in the region. A stand alone Atmospheric GCM, forced by observed sea surface temperature, has been used for several purposes. One study with the AGCM shows the high sensitivity of the tropical circulation to variations in mid- to high-level clouds. A stand-alone ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is being used to study the relative role of shortwave radiation changes in the buoyancy flux forcing of the upper ocean. Complete studies of the warm pool can only be conducted with a full coupled ocean/atmosphere model. The latest version of the Hamburg CGCM produces realistic simulations of the ocean/atmosphere system in the Indo-Pacific without use of a flux correction scheme

Best Practices in Academic Management. Study Programs Classification Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ofelia Ema Aleca

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This article proposes and tests a set of performance indicators for the assessment of Bachelor and Master studies, from two perspectives: the study programs and the disciplines. The academic performance at the level of a study program shall be calculated based on success and efficiency rates, and at discipline level, on the basis of rates of efficiency, success and absenteeism. This research proposes a model of classification of the study programs within a Bachelor and Master cycle based on the education performance and efficiency. What recommends this model as a best practice model in academic management is the possibility of grouping a study program or a discipline in a particular category of efficiency

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region? The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological models; the SLEUTH land use model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) models for simulating regional air quality; and exposure-risk coefficients for assessing population health impacts based on exposure to extreme heat, fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone. Two different IPCC global emission scenarios and two different regional land use growth scenarios are considered in the simulations, spanning a range of possible futures. In addition to base simulations for selected time periods in the decade 1990 - 2000, the integrated model is used to simulate future scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Predictions from both the meteorological models and the air quality models are compared against available observations for the simulations in the 1990s to establish baseline model performance. A series of sensitivity tests will address whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change, changes in regional land use, or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone and particulate matter concentrations.

Integrated core-edge-divertor modeling studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stacey, W.M.

2001-01-01

An integrated calculation model for simulating the interaction of physics phenomena taking place in the plasma core, in the plasma edge and in the SOL and divertor of tokamaks has been developed and applied to study such interactions. The model synthesises a combination of numerical calculations (1) the power and particle balances for the core plasma, using empirical confinement scaling laws and taking into account radiation losses (2), the particle, momentum and power balances in the SOL and divertor, taking into account the effects of radiation and recycling neutrals, (3) the transport of feeling and recycling neutrals, explicitly representing divertor and pumping geometry, and (4) edge pedestal gradient scale lengths and widths, evaluation of theoretical predictions (5) confinement degradation due to thermal instabilities in the edge pedestals, (6) detachment and divertor MARFE onset, (7) core MARFE onsets leading to a H-L transition, and (8) radiative collapse leading to a disruption and evaluation of empirical fits (9) power thresholds for the L-H and H-L transitions and (10) the width of the edge pedestals. The various components of the calculation model are coupled and must be iterated to a self-consistent convergence. The model was developed over several years for the purpose of interpreting various edge phenomena observed in DIII-D experiments and thereby, to some extent, has been benchmarked against experiment. Because the model treats the interactions of various phenomena in the core, edge and divertor, yet is computationally efficient, it lends itself to the investigation of the effects of different choices of various edge plasma operating conditions on overall divertor and core plasma performance. Studies of the effect of feeling location and rate, divertor geometry, plasma shape, pumping and over 'edge parameters' on core plasma properties (line average density, confinement, density limit, etc.) have been performed for DIII-D model problems. A

Mathematical Modelling Research in Turkey: A Content Analysis Study

Science.gov (United States)

Çelik, H. Coskun

2017-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the mathematical modelling studies done between 2004 and 2015 in Turkey and to reveal their tendencies. Forty-nine studies were selected using purposeful sampling based on the term, "mathematical modelling" with Higher Education Academic Search Engine. They were analyzed with content analysis.…

Process modeling for the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, B.W.

1997-04-01

This report describes the process modeling done in support of the Integrated Nonthermal Treatment System (INTS) study. This study was performed to supplement the Integrated Thermal Treatment System (ITTS) study and comprises five conceptual treatment systems that treat DOE contract-handled mixed low-level wastes (MLLW) at temperatures of less than 350{degrees}F. ASPEN PLUS, a chemical process simulator, was used to model the systems. Nonthermal treatment systems were developed as part of the INTS study and include sufficient processing steps to treat the entire inventory of MLLW. The final result of the modeling is a process flowsheet with a detailed mass and energy balance. In contrast to the ITTS study, which modeled only the main treatment system, the INTS study modeled each of the various processing steps with ASPEN PLUS, release 9.1-1. Trace constituents, such as radionuclides and minor pollutant species, were not included in the calculations.

Geographic Resolution Issues in RAM Transport Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

2000-01-01

Transport risk analyses based on the RADTRAN code have been met with continual demands for increased spatial resolution of variations in population densities and other parameters employed in the calculation of risk estimates for transport of radioactive material (RAM). With the advent of geographic information systems (GISs) large quantities of data required to describe transport routes, which may extend to hundreds of kilometers, with high resolution (e.g. 1 km segments) can be handled without inordinate expense. This capability has raised a question concerning the maximum resolution of available input data and compatibility with RADTRAN computational models. Quantitative examinations are presented of spatial resolution issues in the calculation of incident-free doses and accident dose risks. For incident-free calculations, the effect of decreasing route-segment length on accuracy, in view of the model employed, is examined, and means of reducing total data input to the RADTRAN calculations, without loss of meaningful resolution of population concentrations, are presented. In the case of accident-risk calculations, the ability to detail population density under very large dispersal plumes permits comparison of plume modelling to actual data. In both types of calculations, meaningful limits to geographic extent are suggested. (author)

Sources of Holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. N. LeGrande

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Variability in water isotopes has been captured in numerous archives and used to infer past climate changes. Here we examine water isotope variability over the course of the Holocene using the water-isotope enabled, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, GISS ModelE-R. Eight Holocene time slices, ~1000 years apart are simulated and driven by estimated changes in orbital configuration, greenhouse gases, and ice sheet extent. We find that simulated water isotope archives match well with those seen in ice cores, ocean sediment cores, and speleothems. The climate changes associated with the water isotope changes, however, are more complex than simple modern spatial slope interpretations might suggest. In particular, water isotope variability in Asian speleothems is linked to alterations in landward water vapor transport, not local precipitation, and ice sheet changes over North America lead to the masking of temperature signals in Summit, Greenland. Salinity-seawater isotope variability is complicated by inter-ocean basin exchanges of water vapor. Water isotopes do reflect variability in the hydrology, but are better interpreted in terms of regional hydrological cycle changes rather than as indicators of local climate.

Conducting field studies for testing pesticide leaching models

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Charles N.; Parrish, Rudolph S.; Brown, David S.

1990-01-01

A variety of predictive models are being applied to evaluate the transport and transformation of pesticides in the environment. These include well known models such as the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Risk of Unsaturated-Saturated Transport and Transformation Interactions for Chemical Concentrations Model (RUSTIC) and the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems Model (GLEAMS). The potentially large impacts of using these models as tools for developing pesticide management strategies and regulatory decisions necessitates development of sound model validation protocols. This paper offers guidance on many of the theoretical and practical problems encountered in the design and implementation of field-scale model validation studies. Recommendations are provided for site selection and characterization, test compound selection, data needs, measurement techniques, statistical design considerations and sampling techniques. A strategy is provided for quantitatively testing models using field measurements.

Methods and models used in comparative risk studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Devooght, J.

1983-01-01

Comparative risk studies make use of a large number of methods and models based upon a set of assumptions incompletely formulated or of value judgements. Owing to the multidimensionality of risks and benefits, the economic and social context may notably influence the final result. Five classes of models are briefly reviewed: accounting of fluxes of effluents, radiation and energy; transport models and health effects; systems reliability and bayesian analysis; economic analysis of reliability and cost-risk-benefit analysis; decision theory in presence of uncertainty and multiple objectives. Purpose and prospect of comparative studies are assessed in view of probable diminishing returns for large generic comparisons [fr

Studying historical occupational careers with multilevel growth models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wiebke Schulz

2010-10-01

Full Text Available In this article we propose to study occupational careers with historical data by using multilevel growth models. Historical career data are often characterized by a lack of information on the timing of occupational changes and by different numbers of observations of occupations per individual. Growth models can handle these specificities, whereas standard methods, such as event history analyses can't. We illustrate the use of growth models by studying career success of men and women, using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands. The results show that the method is applicable to male careers, but causes trouble when analyzing female careers.

Case Studies in Modelling, Control in Food Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Glassey, J; Barone, A; Montague, G A; Sabou, V

This chapter discusses the importance of modelling and control in increasing food process efficiency and ensuring product quality. Various approaches to both modelling and control in food processing are set in the context of the specific challenges in this industrial sector and latest developments in each area are discussed. Three industrial case studies are used to demonstrate the benefits of advanced measurement, modelling and control in food processes. The first case study illustrates the use of knowledge elicitation from expert operators in the process for the manufacture of potato chips (French fries) and the consequent improvements in process control to increase the consistency of the resulting product. The second case study highlights the economic benefits of tighter control of an important process parameter, moisture content, in potato crisp (chips) manufacture. The final case study describes the use of NIR spectroscopy in ensuring effective mixing of dry multicomponent mixtures and pastes. Practical implementation tips and infrastructure requirements are also discussed.

BIOMASS REBURNING - MODELING/ENGINEERING STUDIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vladimir Zamansky; David Moyeda; Mark Sheldon

2000-01-01

This project is designed to develop engineering and modeling tools for a family of NO(sub x) control technologies utilizing biomass as a reburning fuel. During the tenth reporting period (January 1-March 31, 2000), EER and NETL R and D group continued to work on Tasks 2, 3, 4, and 5. Information regarding these tasks will be included in the next Quarterly Report. This report includes (Appendix 1) a conceptual design study for the introduction of biomass reburning in a working coal-fired utility boiler. This study was conducted under the coordinated SBIR program funded by the U. S. Department of Agriculture

SVM and ANFIS Models for precipitaton Modeling (Case Study: GonbadKavouse

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Zabet Pishkhani

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: In recent years, according to the intelligent models increased as new techniques and tools in hydrological processes such as precipitation forecasting. ANFIS model has good ability in train, construction and classification, and also has the advantage that allows the extraction of fuzzy rules from numerical information or knowledge. Another intelligent technique in recent years has been used in various areas is support vector machine (SVM. In this paper the ability of artificial intelligence methods including support vector machine (SVM and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS were analyzed in monthly precipitation prediction. Materials and Methods: The study area was the city of Gonbad in Golestan Province. The city has a temperate climate in the southern highlands and southern plains, mountains and temperate humid, semi-arid and semi-arid in the north of Gorganroud river. In total, the city's climate is temperate and humid. In the present study, monthly precipitation was modeled in Gonbad using ANFIS and SVM and two different database structures were designed. The first structure: input layer consisted of mean temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind speed at Gonbad station. The second structure: According to Pearson coefficient, the monthly precipitation data were used from four stations: Arazkoose, Bahalke, Tamar and Aqqala which had a higher correlation with Gonbad station precipitation. In this study precipitation data was used from 1995 to 2012. 80% data were used for model training and the remaining 20% of data for validation. SVM was developed from support vector machines in the 1990s by Vapnik. SVM has been widely recognized as a powerful tool to deal with function fitting problems. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS refers, in general, to an adaptive network which performs the function of a fuzzy inference system. The most commonly used fuzzy system in ANFIS architectures is the Sugeno model

Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model organism: a comparative study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hiren Karathia

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Model organisms are used for research because they provide a framework on which to develop and optimize methods that facilitate and standardize analysis. Such organisms should be representative of the living beings for which they are to serve as proxy. However, in practice, a model organism is often selected ad hoc, and without considering its representativeness, because a systematic and rational method to include this consideration in the selection process is still lacking. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work we propose such a method and apply it in a pilot study of strengths and limitations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model organism. The method relies on the functional classification of proteins into different biological pathways and processes and on full proteome comparisons between the putative model organism and other organisms for which we would like to extrapolate results. Here we compare S. cerevisiae to 704 other organisms from various phyla. For each organism, our results identify the pathways and processes for which S. cerevisiae is predicted to be a good model to extrapolate from. We find that animals in general and Homo sapiens in particular are some of the non-fungal organisms for which S. cerevisiae is likely to be a good model in which to study a significant fraction of common biological processes. We validate our approach by correctly predicting which organisms are phenotypically more distant from S. cerevisiae with respect to several different biological processes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The method we propose could be used to choose appropriate substitute model organisms for the study of biological processes in other species that are harder to study. For example, one could identify appropriate models to study either pathologies in humans or specific biological processes in species with a long development time, such as plants.

NURE uranium deposit model studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crew, M.E.

1981-01-01

The National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Program has sponsored uranium deposit model studies by Bendix Field Engineering Corporation (Bendix), the US Geological Survey (USGS), and numerous subcontractors. This paper deals only with models from the following six reports prepared by Samuel S. Adams and Associates: GJBX-1(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Roll-Type Uranium Deposits in Continental Sandstones; GJBX-2(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Uraniferous Humate Deposits, Grants Uranium Region, New Mexico; GJBX-3(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Uranium Deposits of the Quartz-Pebble Conglomerate Type; GJBX-4(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Sandstone Uranium Deposits in Mixed Fluvial-Shallow Marine Sedimentary Sequences, South Texas; GJBX-5(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Veinlike Uranium Deposits of the Lower to Middle Proterozoic Unconformity and Strata-Related Types; GJBX-6(81) - Geology and Recognition Criteria for Sandstone Uranium Deposits of the Salt Wash Type, Colorado Plateau Province. A unique feature of these models is the development of recognition criteria in a systematic fashion, with a method for quantifying the various items. The recognition-criteria networks are used in this paper to illustrate the various types of deposits

Isolated heart models: cardiovascular system studies and technological advances.

Science.gov (United States)

Olejnickova, Veronika; Novakova, Marie; Provaznik, Ivo

2015-07-01

Isolated heart model is a relevant tool for cardiovascular system studies. It represents a highly reproducible model for studying broad spectrum of biochemical, physiological, morphological, and pharmaceutical parameters, including analysis of intrinsic heart mechanics, metabolism, and coronary vascular response. Results obtained in this model are under no influence of other organ systems, plasma concentration of hormones or ions and influence of autonomic nervous system. The review describes various isolated heart models, the modes of heart perfusion, and advantages and limitations of various experimental setups. It reports the improvements of perfusion setup according to Langendorff introduced by the authors.

Computerised modelling for developmental biology : an exploration with case studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bertens, Laura M.F.

2012-01-01

Many studies in developmental biology rely on the construction and analysis of models. This research presents a broad view of modelling approaches for developmental biology, with a focus on computational methods. An overview of modelling techniques is given, followed by several case studies. Using

Contribution to the study of conformal theories and integrable models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sochen, N.

1992-05-01

The purpose of this thesis is the 2-D physics study. The main tool is the conformal field theory with Kac-Moody and W algebra. This theory describes the 2-D models that have translation, rotation and dilatation symmetries, at their critical point. The expanded conformal theories describe models that have a larger symmetry than conformal symmetry. After a review of conformal theory methods, the author effects a detailed study of singular vector form in sl(2) affine algebra. With this important form, correlation functions can be calculated. The classical W algebra is studied and the relations between classical W algebra and quantum W algebra are specified. Bosonization method is presented and sl(2)/sl(2) topological model, studied. Partition function bosonization of different models is described. A program of rational theory classification is described linking rational conformal theories and spin integrable models, and interesting relations between Boltzmann weights of different models have been found. With these relations, the integrability of models by a direct calculation of their Boltzmann weights is proved

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

Science.gov (United States)

Rind, David; Lonergan, P.; Shah, K.

1999-01-01

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows

Differential Equations Models to Study Quorum Sensing.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Velázquez, Judith; Hense, Burkhard A

2018-01-01

Mathematical models to study quorum sensing (QS) have become an important tool to explore all aspects of this type of bacterial communication. A wide spectrum of mathematical tools and methods such as dynamical systems, stochastics, and spatial models can be employed. In this chapter, we focus on giving an overview of models consisting of differential equations (DE), which can be used to describe changing quantities, for example, the dynamics of one or more signaling molecule in time and space, often in conjunction with bacterial growth dynamics. The chapter is divided into two sections: ordinary differential equations (ODE) and partial differential equations (PDE) models of QS. Rates of change are represented mathematically by derivatives, i.e., in terms of DE. ODE models allow describing changes in one independent variable, for example, time. PDE models can be used to follow changes in more than one independent variable, for example, time and space. Both types of models often consist of systems (i.e., more than one equation) of equations, such as equations for bacterial growth and autoinducer concentration dynamics. Almost from the onset, mathematical modeling of QS using differential equations has been an interdisciplinary endeavor and many of the works we revised here will be placed into their biological context.

A test-bed modeling study for wave resource assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Neary, V. S.; Wang, T.; Gunawan, B.; Dallman, A.

2016-02-01

Hindcasts from phase-averaged wave models are commonly used to estimate standard statistics used in wave energy resource assessments. However, the research community and wave energy converter industry is lacking a well-documented and consistent modeling approach for conducting these resource assessments at different phases of WEC project development, and at different spatial scales, e.g., from small-scale pilot study to large-scale commercial deployment. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate current wave model codes, as well as limitations and knowledge gaps for predicting sea states, in order to establish best wave modeling practices, and to identify future research needs to improve wave prediction for resource assessment. This paper presents the first phase of an on-going modeling study to address these concerns. The modeling study is being conducted at a test-bed site off the Central Oregon Coast using two of the most widely-used third-generation wave models - WaveWatchIII and SWAN. A nested-grid modeling approach, with domain dimension ranging from global to regional scales, was used to provide wave spectral boundary condition to a local scale model domain, which has a spatial dimension around 60km by 60km and a grid resolution of 250m - 300m. Model results simulated by WaveWatchIII and SWAN in a structured-grid framework are compared to NOAA wave buoy data for the six wave parameters, including omnidirectional wave power, significant wave height, energy period, spectral width, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power, and directionality coefficient. Model performance and computational efficiency are evaluated, and the best practices for wave resource assessments are discussed, based on a set of standard error statistics and model run times.

Escompte Pre-modelling Studies In The Marseille Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Meleux, F.; Rosset, R.

On June and July 2001, the campaign ESCOMPTE took place in the Marseille area in southern of France, with the aim of generating a detailed 3-D data base for the study of dynamics and chemistry of high pollution events so as to validate and improve air quality models. Previous to this field experiment, a pre-modelling exercise has been performed to document the dynamic interactions between sea and land breezes and orographics flows over this complex topographical area. This study was carried out using a nesting procedure at local and regional scales using the MESO-NH model (jointly developed by Laboratoire d'Aérologie and Meteofrance at Toulouse). Tracers emitted at various locations in the Marseille and Etang de Berre areas were first fol- lowed, then in a second step, full chemistry simulations have been run for two selected periods on June and July 1999, quite similar to the meteorological situations met dur- ing the IOP2a and the IOP4 in the 2001 campaign. The performance of the model has been assessed by comparing measured data with simulated data for meteorological pa- rameters and ozone. The general ability of the model to correctly simulate these two situations allows to further study ozone plume developments in more details. In par- ticular, these studies bear upon the relative roles of O3 transport versus O3 chemical production, as a function of distance within the plume to anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions, together with ozone daily variations and peak values observed at rural sites.

Study on vertical seismic response model of BWR-type reactor building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konno, T.; Motohashi, S.; Izumi, M.; Iizuka, S.

1993-01-01

A study on advanced seismic design for LWR has been carried out by the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC), under the sponsorship of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) of Japan. As a part of the study, it has been investigated to construct an accurate analytical model of reactor buildings for a seismic response analysis, which can reasonably represent dynamic characteristics of the building. In Japan, vibration models of reactor buildings for horizontal ground motion have been studied and examined through many simulation analyses for forced vibration tests and earthquake observations of actual buildings. And now it is possible to establish a reliable horizontal vibration model on the basis of multi-lumped mass and spring model. However, vertical vibration models have not been so much studied as horizontal models, due to less observed data for vertical motions. In this paper, the vertical seismic response models of a BWR-type reactor building including soil-structure interaction effect are numerically studied, by comparing the dynamic characteristics of (1) three dimensional finite element model, (2) multi-stick lumped mass model with a flexible base-mat, (3) multi-stick lumped mass model with a rigid base-mat and (4) single-stick lumped mass model. In particular, the BWR-type reactor building has the long span truss roof which is considered to be one of the critical members to vertical excitation. The modelings of the roof trusses are also studied

An Integrated Approach to Mathematical Modeling: A Classroom Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Doerr, Helen M.

Modeling, simulation, and discrete mathematics have all been identified by professional mathematics education organizations as important areas for secondary school study. This classroom study focused on the components and tools for modeling and how students use these tools to construct their understanding of contextual problems in the content area…

Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.

1991-01-01

The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)

Salt intrusion study in Cochin estuary - Using empirical models

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Jacob, B.; Revichandran, C.; NaveenKumar, K.R.

been applied to the Cochin estuary in the present study to identify the most suitable model for predicting the salt intrusion length. Comparison of the obtained results indicate that the model of Van der Burgh (1972) is the most suitable empirical model...

Model study on radioecology in Biblis. Pt. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-03-01

The present volume 'Water Pathway II' of the model study radioecology Biblis contains the remaining six part studies on the subjects: 1. Concentration of radionuclides in river sediments. 2. Incorporation via terrestrial food (milk, fruit, vegetables). 3. Radioactive substances in the Rhine not arising from nuclear power stations. 4. Dynamic model for intermittent outlet during reactor operation. 5. Exposure to radiation of the Rhine-fishes. 6. Influence of contaminated waste water on industrial utilization of surface waters.

Visualization study of operators' plant knowledge model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanno, Tarou; Furuta, Kazuo; Yoshikawa, Shinji

1999-03-01

Nuclear plants are typically very complicated systems and are required extremely high level safety on the operations. Since it is never possible to include all the possible anomaly scenarios in education/training curriculum, plant knowledge formation is desired for operators to enable thein to act against unexpected anomalies based on knowledge base decision making. The authors have been conducted a study on operators' plant knowledge model for the purpose of supporting operators' effort in forming this kind of plant knowledge. In this report, an integrated plant knowledge model consisting of configuration space, causality space, goal space and status space is proposed. The authors examined appropriateness of this model and developed a prototype system to support knowledge formation by visualizing the operators' knowledge model and decision making process in knowledge-based actions with this model on a software system. Finally the feasibility of this prototype as a supportive method in operator education/training to enhance operators' ability in knowledge-based performance has been evaluated. (author)

Geology - Background complementary studies. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stephens, Michael B. [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden); Skagius, Kristina [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] (eds.)

2007-09-15

During Forsmark model stage 2.2, seven complementary geophysical and geological studies were initiated by the geological modelling team, in direct connection with and as a background support to the deterministic modelling of deformation zones. One of these studies involved a field control on the character of two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trends inside the target volume. The interpretation of these lineaments formed one of the late deliveries to SKB that took place after the data freeze for model stage 2.2 and during the initial stage of the modelling work. Six studies involved a revised processing and analysis of reflection seismic, refraction seismic and selected oriented borehole radar data, all of which had been presented earlier in connection with the site investigation programme. A prime aim of all these studies was to provide a better understanding of the geological significance of indirect geophysical data to the geological modelling team. Such essential interpretative work was lacking in the material acquired in connection with the site investigation programme. The results of these background complementary studies are published together in this report. The titles and authors of the seven background complementary studies are presented below. Summaries of the results of each study, with a focus on the implications for the geological modelling of deformation zones, are presented in the master geological report, SKB-R--07-45. The sections in the master report, where reference is made to each background complementary study and where the summaries are placed, are also provided. The individual reports are listed in the order that they are referred to in the master geological report and as they appear in this report. 1. Scan line fracture mapping and magnetic susceptibility measurements across two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trend, Forsmark. Jesper Petersson, Ulf B. Andersson and Johan Berglund. 2. Integrated interpretation of surface and

Geology - Background complementary studies. Forsmark modelling stage 2.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephens, Michael B.; Skagius, Kristina

2007-09-01

During Forsmark model stage 2.2, seven complementary geophysical and geological studies were initiated by the geological modelling team, in direct connection with and as a background support to the deterministic modelling of deformation zones. One of these studies involved a field control on the character of two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trends inside the target volume. The interpretation of these lineaments formed one of the late deliveries to SKB that took place after the data freeze for model stage 2.2 and during the initial stage of the modelling work. Six studies involved a revised processing and analysis of reflection seismic, refraction seismic and selected oriented borehole radar data, all of which had been presented earlier in connection with the site investigation programme. A prime aim of all these studies was to provide a better understanding of the geological significance of indirect geophysical data to the geological modelling team. Such essential interpretative work was lacking in the material acquired in connection with the site investigation programme. The results of these background complementary studies are published together in this report. The titles and authors of the seven background complementary studies are presented below. Summaries of the results of each study, with a focus on the implications for the geological modelling of deformation zones, are presented in the master geological report, SKB-R--07-45. The sections in the master report, where reference is made to each background complementary study and where the summaries are placed, are also provided. The individual reports are listed in the order that they are referred to in the master geological report and as they appear in this report. 1. Scan line fracture mapping and magnetic susceptibility measurements across two low magnetic lineaments with NNE and NE trend, Forsmark. Jesper Petersson, Ulf B. Andersson and Johan Berglund. 2. Integrated interpretation of surface and

Atmospheric residence times of continental aerosols

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balkanski, Y.J.

1991-01-01

The global atmospheric distributions of Rn-222 are simulated with a three-dimensional model of atmospheric transport based on the meteorology of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model. The short-lived radioactive gas Rn-222 (half-life = 3.8d) is emitted almost exclusively from land, at a relatively uniform rate; hence it is an excellent tracer of continental influences. Lead-210 is produced by decay of Rn-222 and immediately condenses to preexisting aerosol surfaces. It provides an excellent measure of aerosol residence times in the atmosphere because its source is accurately defined by the Rn-222 distribution. Results from the three-dimensional model are compared to measurements of Rn-222 and Pb-210 atmospheric concentrations to evaluate model's long-range transport over oceanic regions and to study the deposition mechanisms of atmospheric aerosols. Model results for Rn-222 are used to examine the long-range transport of continental air over two selected oceanic regions, the subantarctic Indian Ocean and the North Pacific. It is shown that the fast transport of air from southern Africa causes substantial continental pollution at southern mid-latitudes, a region usually regarded as pristine. Air over the North Pacific is heavily impacted by continental influences year round, but the altitude at which the transport occurs varies seasonally. Observations of aerosols at island sites, which are commonly used as diagnostics of continental influences, may be misleading because they do not account for influences at high altitude and because aerosols are efficiently scavenged by deposition during transport. The study of Pb-210 focuses on defining the residence times of submicron aerosols in the troposphere. Scavenging in wet convective updrafts is found to provide the dominant sink on a global scale

Drosophila melanogaster as a model organism to study nanotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Cynthia; Yung, Lin-Yue Lanry; Cai, Yu; Bay, Boon-Huat; Baeg, Gyeong-Hun

2015-05-01

Drosophila melanogaster has been used as an in vivo model organism for the study of genetics and development since 100 years ago. Recently, the fruit fly Drosophila was also developed as an in vivo model organism for toxicology studies, in particular, the field of nanotoxicity. The incorporation of nanomaterials into consumer and biomedical products is a cause for concern as nanomaterials are often associated with toxicity in many in vitro studies. In vivo animal studies of the toxicity of nanomaterials with rodents and other mammals are, however, limited due to high operational cost and ethical objections. Hence, Drosophila, a genetically tractable organism with distinct developmental stages and short life cycle, serves as an ideal organism to study nanomaterial-mediated toxicity. This review discusses the basic biology of Drosophila, the toxicity of nanomaterials, as well as how the Drosophila model can be used to study the toxicity of various types of nanomaterials.

Comparative study between a QCD inspired model and a multiple diffraction model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luna, E.G.S.; Martini, A.F.; Menon, M.J.

2003-01-01

A comparative study between a QCD Inspired Model (QCDIM) and a Multiple Diffraction Model (MDM) is presented, with focus on the results for pp differential cross section at √s = 52.8 GeV. It is shown that the MDM predictions are in agreement with experimental data, except for the dip region and that the QCDIM describes only the diffraction peak region. Interpretations in terms of the corresponding eikonals are also discussed. (author)

Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williford, R.E.

2006-01-01

When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

The New York City Research Initiative: A Model for Undergraduate and High School Student Research in Earth and Space Sciences and Space Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Scalzo, F.; Frost, J.; Carlson, B. E.; Marchese, P.; Rosenzweig, C.; Austin, S. A.; Peteet, D. M.; Druyan, L.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Baruh, H.; Decker, S.; Thangam, S.; Miles, J.; Moshary, F.; Rossow, W.; Greenbaum, S.; Cheung, T. K.; Johnson, L. P.

2010-12-01

, Optimization Model for Future Lunar Colony, Models of Space Travel, and NMR Investigation of MnO2 Infused Carbon Nanofoams. We describe student research, significant results and enrichment activities during the Summer 2010. The NYCRI partners with the CUNY-GISS Center for Global Climate Change, an NSF REU Site. The NYCRI is supported by NASAâ^À^Ùs Earth Science Office, GSFC Education Office, as well as NASA and NSF awards to NYCRI College/University Principal Investigators.

Innovation and Business Model: a case study about integration of Innovation Funnel and Business Model Canvas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fábio Luiz Zandoval Bonazzi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Unlike the past, currently, thinking about innovation refers to a reflection of value cocreation through strategic alliances, customer approach and adoption of different business models. Thus, this study analyzed and described the innovation process of company DSM, connecting it to concepts of organizational development strategies and the theory of business model. This is a basic interpretive qualitative research, developed by means of a single case study conducted through interviews and documentary analysis. This study enabled us to categorize the company business model as an open, unbundled and innovative model, which makes innovation a dependent variable of this internal configuration of value creation and value capture. As a theoretical contribution, we highlight the convergence and complementarity of the “Business Model Canvas” tool and “Innovation Funnel,” used here, to analyze the empirical case.

Model study radioecology Biblis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1976-01-01

The second part of the study deals with questions concerning the release of radioactive substances into the environment via the air pathway and their diffusion. On the basis of an introductory lecture on basic principles the interrelations within the whole complex to be considered are discussed. For the release itself, the fundamental issues concerning type and quantity of radioactive substances and their time behaviour are established. With regard to diffusion, calculation models and their parameters are reviewed. Much the same as the first colloquium, this one too aims at compiling existing models and data, determining the known facts and the questions still open and formulating tasks for the further activities. Thirteen questions emerged. They are concerned, above all, with the existing conditions for release and diffusion at the site. These questions will be dealt with in the forms of partial studies by individual participants or by task groups. Results will be reported on at further colloquia. (orig.) [de

Synthetic Study on the Geological and Hydrogeological Model around KURT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Kyung Woo; Kim, Kyung Su; Koh, Yong Kwon; Choi, Jong Won

2011-01-01

To characterize the site specific properties of a study area for high-level radioactive waste disposal research in KAERI, the several geological investigations such as surface geological surveys and borehole drillings were carried out since 1997. Especially, KURT (KAERI Underground Research Tunnel) was constructed to understand the further study of geological environments in 2006. As a result, the first geological model of a study area was constructed by using the results of geological investigation. The objective of this research is to construct a hydrogeological model around KURT area on the basis of the geological model. Hydrogeological data which were obtained from in-situ hydraulic tests in the 9 boreholes were estimated to accomplish the objective. And, the hydrogeological properties of the 4 geological elements in the geological model, which were the subsurface weathering zone, the log angle fracture zone, the fracture zones and the bedrock were suggested. The hydrogeological model suggested in this study will be used as input parameters to carry out the groundwater flow modeling as a next step of the site characterization around KURT area

ICRF edge modeling studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehrman, I.S. (Grumman Corp. Research Center, Princeton, NJ (USA)); Colestock, P.L. (Princeton Univ., NJ (USA). Plasma Physics Lab.)

1990-04-01

Theoretical models have been developed, and are currently being refined, to explain the edge plasma-antenna interaction that occurs during ICRF heating. The periodic structure of a Faraday shielded antenna is found to result in strong ponderomotive force in the vicinity of the antenna. A fluid model, which incorporates the ponderomotive force, shows an increase in transport to the Faraday shield. A kinetic model shows that the strong antenna near fields act to increase the energy of deuterons which strike the shield, thereby increasing the sputtering of shield material. Estimates of edge impurity harmonic heating show no significant heating for either in or out-of-phase antenna operation. Additionally, a particle model for electrons near the shield shows that heating results from the parallel electric field associated with the fast wave. A quasilinear model for edge electron heating is presented and compared to the particle calculations. The models' predictions are shown to be consistent with measurements of enhanced transport. (orig.).

An updated summary of MATHEW/ADPIC model evaluation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, K.T.; Dickerson, M.H.

1990-05-01

This paper summarizes the major model evaluation studies conducted for the MATHEW/ADPIC atmospheric transport and diffusion models used by the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability. These studies have taken place over the last 15 years and involve field tracer releases influenced by a variety of meteorological and topographical conditions. Neutrally buoyant tracers released both as surface and elevated point sources, as well as material dispersed by explosive, thermally bouyant release mechanisms have been studied. Results from these studies show that the MATHEW/ADPIC models estimate the tracer air concentrations to within a factor of two of the measured values 20% to 50% of the time, and within a factor of five of the measurements 35% to 85% of the time depending on the complexity of the meteorology and terrain, and the release height of the tracer. Comparisons of model estimates to peak downwind deposition and air concentration measurements from explosive releases are shown to be generally within a factor of two to three. 24 refs., 14 figs., 3 tabs

Study on modeling technology in digital reactor system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiaoping; Luo Yuetong; Tong Lili

2004-01-01

Modeling is the kernel part of a digital reactor system. As an extensible platform for reactor conceptual design, it is very important to study modeling technology and develop some kind of tools to speed up preparation of all classical computing models. This paper introduces the background of the project and basic conception of digital reactor. MCAM is taken as an example for modeling and its related technologies used are given. It is an interface program for MCNP geometry model developed by FDS team (ASIPP and HUT), and designed to run on windows system. MCAM aims at utilizing CAD technology to facilitate creation of MCNP geometry model. There have been two ways for MCAM to utilize CAD technology: (1) Making use of user interface technology in aid of generation of MCNP geometry model; (2) Making use of existing 3D CAD model to accelerate creation of MCNP geometry model. This paper gives an overview of MCAM's major function. At last, several examples are given to demonstrate MCAM's various capabilities. (authors)

Managing Livestock Species under Climate Change in Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, S. Niggol; McCarl, Bruce

2011-01-01

Simple Summary World communities are concerned about the impacts of a hotter and drier climate on future agriculture. By examining Australian regional livestock data on sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs, the authors find that livestock production will expand under such conditions. Livestock revenue per farm is expected to increase by more than 47% by 2060 under the UKMO, the GISS, and a high degree of warming CSIRO scenario. The existence of a threshold temperature for these species is not evident. Abstract This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data. PMID:26486620

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carini, F.; Atkinson, C.J.; Collins, C.; Coughtrey, P.J.; Eged, K.; Fulker, M.; Green, N.; Kinnersley, R.; Linkov, I.; Mitchell, N.G.; Mourlon, C.; Ould-Dada, Z.; Quinault, J.M.; Robles, B.; Stewart, A.; Sweeck, L.; Venter, A.

2005-01-01

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios

Molecular modeling of protein materials: case study of elastin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarakanova, Anna; Buehler, Markus J

2013-01-01

Molecular modeling of protein materials is a quickly growing area of research that has produced numerous contributions in fields ranging from structural engineering to medicine and biology. We review here the history and methods commonly employed in molecular modeling of protein materials, emphasizing the advantages for using modeling as a complement to experimental work. We then consider a case study of the protein elastin, a critically important ‘mechanical protein’ to exemplify the approach in an area where molecular modeling has made a significant impact. We outline the progression of computational modeling studies that have considerably enhanced our understanding of this important protein which endows elasticity and recoil to the tissues it is found in, including the skin, lungs, arteries and the heart. A vast collection of literature has been directed at studying the structure and function of this protein for over half a century, the first molecular dynamics study of elastin being reported in the 1980s. We review the pivotal computational works that have considerably enhanced our fundamental understanding of elastin's atomistic structure and its extraordinary qualities—focusing on two in particular: elastin's superb elasticity and the inverse temperature transition—the remarkable ability of elastin to take on a more structured conformation at higher temperatures, suggesting its effectiveness as a biomolecular switch. Our hope is to showcase these methods as both complementary and enriching to experimental approaches that have thus far dominated the study of most protein-based materials. (topical review)

Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bauer, Susanne [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

2015-02-09

We participated in a FASTER SCM intercomparison for which we ran our SCM for 3 years at the SGP to analyze statistics of the precipitation field (Song et al., 2013). An important feature of these simulations was the use of relaxation forcing to observed T, q, which decouples the model convection from the forcing and allows precipitation errors to emerge. Because the GISS cumulus parameterization includes a trigger that prevents convection until sufficient lifting is present, and because convection at the SGP is usually triggered by mesoscale motions that are not represented in the forcing when relaxation is applied, the duration of SCM precipitation is shorter than observed (Del Genio and Wolf, 2012) and thus its mean precipitation less than observed. However, its diurnal cycle phase is correct, and it is the only operational cumulus parameterization in the intercomparison that does not produce excessive warm season precipitation under weak large-scale forcing conditions.

Plasma simulation studies using multilevel physics models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, W.; Belova, E.V.; Fu, G.Y.

2000-01-01

The question of how to proceed toward ever more realistic plasma simulation studies using ever increasing computing power is addressed. The answer presented here is the M3D (Multilevel 3D) project, which has developed a code package with a hierarchy of physics levels that resolve increasingly complete subsets of phase-spaces and are thus increasingly more realistic. The rationale for the multilevel physics models is given. Each physics level is described and examples of its application are given. The existing physics levels are fluid models (3D configuration space), namely magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and two-fluids; and hybrid models, namely gyrokinetic-energetic-particle/MHD (5D energetic particle phase-space), gyrokinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron (5D ion phase-space), and full-kinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron level (6D ion phase-space). Resolving electron phase-space (5D or 6D) remains a future project. Phase-space-fluid models are not used in favor of delta f particle models. A practical and accurate nonlinear fluid closure for noncollisional plasmas seems not likely in the near future

Study on Tower Models for EHV Transmission Line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Bao-Qing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Lightning outage accident is one of the main factors that threat seriously the safe and reliable operation of power system. So it is very important to establish reasonable transmission tower model and evaluate the impulse response characteristic of lightning wave traveling on the transmission tower properly for determining reliable lightning protection performance. With the help of Electromagnetic Transient Program (EMTP, six 500kV tower models are built. Aiming at one line to one transformer operating mode of 500kV substation, the intruding wave overvoltage under different tower models is calculated. The effect of tower model on intruding overvoltage has been studied. The results show that different tower models can result in great differences to the calculation results. Hence, reasonable selection of the tower model in the calculation of back- strike intruding wave is very important.

Volatile particles formation during PartEmis: a modelling study

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X. Vancassel

2004-01-01

Full Text Available A modelling study of the formation of volatile particles in a combustor exhaust has been carried out in the frame of the PartEmis European project. A kinetic model has been used in order to investigate nucleation efficiency of the H2O-H2SO4 binary mixture in the sampling system. A value for the fraction of the fuel sulphur S(IV converted into S(VI has been indirectly deduced from comparisons between model results and measurements. In the present study, ranges between roughly 2.5% and 6%, depending on the combustor settings and on the value assumed for the parameter describing sulphuric acid wall losses. Soot particles hygroscopicity has also been investigated as their activation is a key parameter for contrail formation. Growth factors of monodisperse particles exposed to high relative humidity (95% have been calculated and compared with experimental results. The modelling study confirms that the growth factor increases as the soot particle size decreases.

Process modeling study of the CIF incinerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hang, T.

1995-01-01

The Savannah River Site (SRS) plans to begin operating the Consolidated Incineration Facility (CIF) in 1996. The CIF will treat liquid and solid low-level radioactive, mixed and RCRA hazardous wastes generated at SRS. In addition to experimental test programs, process modeling was applied to provide guidance in areas of safety, environmental regulation compliances, process improvement and optimization. A steady-state flowsheet model was used to calculate material/energy balances and to track key chemical constituents throughout the process units. Dynamic models were developed to predict the CIF transient characteristics in normal and abnormal operation scenarios. Predictions include the rotary kiln heat transfer, dynamic responses of the CIF to fluctuations in the solid waste feed or upsets in the system equipments, performance of the control system, air inleakage in the kiln, etc. This paper reviews the modeling study performed to assist in the deflagration risk assessment

Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matt Begun

Full Text Available The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development

Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Begun, Matt; Newall, Anthony T; Marks, Guy B; Wood, James G

2013-01-01

The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and

Injury Based on Its Study in Experimental Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mendes-Braz

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The present review focuses on the numerous experimental models used to study the complexity of hepatic ischemia/reperfusion (I/R injury. Although experimental models of hepatic I/R injury represent a compromise between the clinical reality and experimental simplification, the clinical transfer of experimental results is problematic because of anatomical and physiological differences and the inevitable simplification of experimental work. In this review, the strengths and limitations of the various models of hepatic I/R are discussed. Several strategies to protect the liver from I/R injury have been developed in animal models and, some of these, might find their way into clinical practice. We also attempt to highlight the fact that the mechanisms responsible for hepatic I/R injury depend on the experimental model used, and therefore the therapeutic strategies also differ according to the model used. Thus, the choice of model must therefore be adapted to the clinical question being answered.

Teaching Mathematical Modelling for Earth Sciences via Case Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xin-She

2010-05-01

Mathematical modelling is becoming crucially important for earth sciences because the modelling of complex systems such as geological, geophysical and environmental processes requires mathematical analysis, numerical methods and computer programming. However, a substantial fraction of earth science undergraduates and graduates may not have sufficient skills in mathematical modelling, which is due to either limited mathematical training or lack of appropriate mathematical textbooks for self-study. In this paper, we described a detailed case-study-based approach for teaching mathematical modelling. We illustrate how essential mathematical skills can be developed for students with limited training in secondary mathematics so that they are confident in dealing with real-world mathematical modelling at university level. We have chosen various topics such as Airy isostasy, greenhouse effect, sedimentation and Stokes' flow,free-air and Bouguer gravity, Brownian motion, rain-drop dynamics, impact cratering, heat conduction and cooling of the lithosphere as case studies; and we use these step-by-step case studies to teach exponentials, logarithms, spherical geometry, basic calculus, complex numbers, Fourier transforms, ordinary differential equations, vectors and matrix algebra, partial differential equations, geostatistics and basic numeric methods. Implications for teaching university mathematics for earth scientists for tomorrow's classroom will also be discussed. Refereces 1) D. L. Turcotte and G. Schubert, Geodynamics, 2nd Edition, Cambridge University Press, (2002). 2) X. S. Yang, Introductory Mathematics for Earth Scientists, Dunedin Academic Press, (2009).

Study on competitive interaction models in Cayley tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreira, J.G.M.A.

1987-12-01

We propose two kinds of models in the Cayley tree to simulate Ising models with axial anisotropy in the cubic lattice. The interaction in the direction of the anisotropy is simulated by the interaction along the branches of the tree. The interaction in the planes perpendicular to the anisotropy direction, in the first model, is simulated by interactions between spins in neighbour branches of the same generation arising from same site of the previous generation. In the second model, the simulation of the interaction in the planes are produced by mean field interactions among all spins in sites of the same generation arising from the same site of the previous generations. We study these models in the limit of infinite coordination number. First, we analyse a situation with antiferromagnetic interactions along the branches between first neighbours only, and we find the analogous of a metamagnetic Ising model. In the following, we introduce competitive interactions between first and second neighbours along the branches, to simulate the ANNNI model. We obtain one equation of differences which relates the magnetization of one generation with the magnetization of the two previous generations, to permit a detailed study of the modulated phase region. We note that the wave number of the modulation, for one fixed temperature, changes with the competition parameter to form a devil's staircase with a fractal dimension which increases with the temperature. We discuss the existence of strange atractors, related to a possible caothic phase. Finally, we show the obtained results when we consider interactions along the branches with three neighbours. (author)

DECENTRALIZED ORCHESTRATION OF COMPOSITE OGC WEB PROCESSING SERVICES IN THE CLOUD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Xiao

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Current web-based GIS or RS applications generally rely on centralized structure, which has inherent drawbacks such as single points of failure, network congestion, and data inconsistency, etc. The inherent disadvantages of traditional GISs need to be solved for new applications on Internet or Web. Decentralized orchestration offers performance improvements in terms of increased throughput and scalability and lower response time. This paper investigates build time and runtime issues related to decentralized orchestration of composite geospatial processing services based on OGC WPS standard specification. A case study of dust storm detection was demonstrated to evaluate the proposed method and the experimental results indicate that the method proposed in this study is effective for its ability to produce the high quality solution at a low cost of communications for geospatial processing service composition problem.

Model for the dynamic study of AC contactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corcoles, F.; Pedra, J.; Garrido, J.P.; Baza, R. [Dep. d' Eng. Electrica ETSEIB. UPC, Barcelona (Spain)

2000-08-01

This paper proposes a model for the dynamic analysis of AC contactors. The calculation algorithm and implementation are discussed. The proposed model can be used to study the influence of the design parameters and the supply in their dynamic behaviour. The high calculation speed of the implemented algorithm allows extensive ranges of parameter variations to be analysed. (orig.)

Technical data report : marine acoustics modelling study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chorney, N.; Warner, G.; Austin, M. [Jasco Applied Sciences, Victoria, BC (Canada)

2010-07-01

This study was conducted to predict the ensonification produced by vessel traffic transiting to and from the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project's marine terminal located near Kitimat, British Columbia (BC). An underwater acoustic propagation model was used to model frequency bands from 20 Hz to 5 kHz at a standard depth of 20 metres. The model included bathymetric grids of the modelling area; underwater sound speed as a function of depth; and geo-acoustic profiles based on the stratified composition of the seafloor. The obtained 1/3 octave band levels were then used to determine broadband received sound levels for 4 scenarios along various transit routes: the Langara and Triple Island in Dixon Entrance; the Browning Entrance in Hecate Strait, and Cape St. James in the Queen Charlotte Basin. The scenarios consisted of a tanker transiting at 16 knots, and an accompanying tug boat. Underwater sound level maps for each scenario were presented. 14 refs., 5 tabs., 16 figs.

Contribution to the modeling of particulate hypersonic flows. Study and validation of a discrete two-fluid model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papin, M.

2005-06-01

This work dedicated to the study of the hypersonic re-entry of vehicles in the atmosphere crossing clouds of particles implies the study of two-fluid flow and it is shown that some developments can be applied to the two-fluid models used to describe the phase transformation occurring in a target irradiated by laser beams. The calculation of wall fluxes on hypersonic re-entry vehicles requires the modeling of the interactions with clouds. Two-fluid flows posing many physical and mathematical problems, one studies an alternative model due to Abgrall and Saurel: the discrete equation method (DEM). Three axis are chosen. The first proposes a finite volume discretization of the Navier-Stokes equations on hybrid grids adapted to the context. The second extends the DEM within a multi-fluid not-structured N-D framework. A limit study associates an original continuous model to him: it allows to modify usual two-fluid seven equations models to obtain a phasic entropy principle. In spite of good properties, the continuous description of the particles is unsuited to the problem. The last axis is a study of the follow-up of pointwise particles which does not allow realistic calculation of parietal fluxes. An original model, extending the usual hydro-erosion models, however makes it possible to evaluate rebounds, erosion of the body and wall fluxes. The appendices expose approximate and exact Riemann solvers between pure fluids, discretization of the Baer and Nunziato model, and relations describing the atmosphere, water and heat fluxes

Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

Comparative Study of Injury Models for Studying Muscle Regeneration in Mice.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Hardy

Full Text Available A longstanding goal in regenerative medicine is to reconstitute functional tissues or organs after injury or disease. Attention has focused on the identification and relative contribution of tissue specific stem cells to the regeneration process. Relatively little is known about how the physiological process is regulated by other tissue constituents. Numerous injury models are used to investigate tissue regeneration, however, these models are often poorly understood. Specifically, for skeletal muscle regeneration several models are reported in the literature, yet the relative impact on muscle physiology and the distinct cells types have not been extensively characterised.We have used transgenic Tg:Pax7nGFP and Flk1GFP/+ mouse models to respectively count the number of muscle stem (satellite cells (SC and number/shape of vessels by confocal microscopy. We performed histological and immunostainings to assess the differences in the key regeneration steps. Infiltration of immune cells, chemokines and cytokines production was assessed in vivo by Luminex®.We compared the 4 most commonly used injury models i.e. freeze injury (FI, barium chloride (BaCl2, notexin (NTX and cardiotoxin (CTX. The FI was the most damaging. In this model, up to 96% of the SCs are destroyed with their surrounding environment (basal lamina and vasculature leaving a "dead zone" devoid of viable cells. The regeneration process itself is fulfilled in all 4 models with virtually no fibrosis 28 days post-injury, except in the FI model. Inflammatory cells return to basal levels in the CTX, BaCl2 but still significantly high 1-month post-injury in the FI and NTX models. Interestingly the number of SC returned to normal only in the FI, 1-month post-injury, with SCs that are still cycling up to 3-months after the induction of the injury in the other models.Our studies show that the nature of the injury model should be chosen carefully depending on the experimental design and desired

Model technique for aerodynamic study of boiler furnace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1966-02-01

The help of the Division was recently sought to improve the heat transfer and reduce the exit gas temperature in a pulverized-fuel-fired boiler at an Australian power station. One approach adopted was to construct from Perspex a 1:20 scale cold-air model of the boiler furnace and to use a flow-visualization technique to study the aerodynamic patterns established when air was introduced through the p.f. burners of the model. The work established good correlations between the behaviour of the model and of the boiler furnace.

Skew-t partially linear mixed-effects models for AIDS clinical studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Tao

2016-01-01

We propose partially linear mixed-effects models with asymmetry and missingness to investigate the relationship between two biomarkers in clinical studies. The proposed models take into account irregular time effects commonly observed in clinical studies under a semiparametric model framework. In addition, commonly assumed symmetric distributions for model errors are substituted by asymmetric distribution to account for skewness. Further, informative missing data mechanism is accounted for. A Bayesian approach is developed to perform parameter estimation simultaneously. The proposed model and method are applied to an AIDS dataset and comparisons with alternative models are performed.

Plasma simulation studies using multilevel physics models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, W.; Belova, E.V.; Fu, G.Y.; Tang, X.Z.; Strauss, H.R.; Sugiyama, L.E.

1999-01-01

The question of how to proceed toward ever more realistic plasma simulation studies using ever increasing computing power is addressed. The answer presented here is the M3D (Multilevel 3D) project, which has developed a code package with a hierarchy of physics levels that resolve increasingly complete subsets of phase-spaces and are thus increasingly more realistic. The rationale for the multilevel physics models is given. Each physics level is described and examples of its application are given. The existing physics levels are fluid models (3D configuration space), namely magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and two-fluids; and hybrid models, namely gyrokinetic-energetic-particle/MHD (5D energetic particle phase-space), gyrokinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron (5D ion phase-space), and full-kinetic-particle-ion/fluid-electron level (6D ion phase-space). Resolving electron phase-space (5D or 6D) remains a future project. Phase-space-fluid models are not used in favor of δf particle models. A practical and accurate nonlinear fluid closure for noncollisional plasmas seems not likely in the near future. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

Marine radioactivity studies in the Suez Canal. A modelling study on radionuclide dispersion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abril, J.M.; Abdel-Aal, M.M.

2000-01-01

This paper describes work carried out under the IAEA Project EGY/07/002 to study the dispersion of radioactive material in the Suez Canal and the Bitter Lakes. This effort is linked with increased public concern about radiation safety through this important trade route. We apply a sequence of related modelling approaches, covering: (1) hydrodynamics, (2) transport of dissolved pollutants, (3) suspended loads and sediment dynamics, and (4) electrolytic reactions in aqueous suspension and in-sediment water pores. The final stage is a kinetic-reactive transport model for these tidal waters. The hydrodynamics have been studied using both 1D and 2D modelling approaches, and a reasonable calibration has been possible from the data set prepared with the collaboration of the Suez Canal Authority. Diffusion coefficients are calibrated from field tracing experiments included in the IAEA Project. They have been implemented in 1D and 2D models. Suspended matter dynamics and electrolytic reactions are documented from the available literature. Finally, different scenarios of discharges for both conservative and non-conservative radionuclides have been investigated

Quantitative modelling and analysis of a Chinese smart grid: a stochastic model checking case study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yuksel, Ender; Nielson, Hanne Riis; Nielson, Flemming

2014-01-01

Cyber-physical systems integrate information and communication technology with the physical elements of a system, mainly for monitoring and controlling purposes. The conversion of traditional power grid into a smart grid, a fundamental example of a cyber-physical system, raises a number of issues...... that require novel methods and applications. One of the important issues in this context is the verification of certain quantitative properties of the system. In this paper, we consider a specific Chinese smart grid implementation as a case study and address the verification problem for performance and energy...... consumption.We employ stochastic model checking approach and present our modelling and analysis study using PRISM model checker....

Systematic Relationships Between Lidar Observables and Sizes And Mineral Composition Of Dust Aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Stangl, Alexander; Perlwitz, Jan; Fridlind, Ann M.; Chowdhary, Jacek; Cairns, Brian

2015-01-01

The physical and chemical properties of soil dust aerosol particles fundamentally affect their interaction with climate, including shortwave absorption and radiative forcing, nucleation of cloud droplets and ice crystals, heterogeneous formation of sulfates and nitrates on the surface of dust particles, and atmospheric processing of iron into bioavailable forms that increase the productivity of marine phytoplankton. Lidar measurements, such as extinction-to-backscatter, color and depolarization ratios, are frequently used to distinguish between aerosol types with different physical and chemical properties. The chemical composition of aerosol particles determines their complex refractive index, hence affecting their backscattering properties. Here we present a study on how dust aerosol backscattering and depolarization properties at wavelengths of 355, 532 and 1064 nm are related to size and complex refractive index, which varies with the mineral composition of the dust. Dust aerosols are represented by collections of spheroids with a range of prolate and oblate aspect ratios and their optical properties are obtained using T-matrix calculations. We find simple, systematic relationships between lidar observables and the dust size and complex refractive index that may aid the use of space-based or airborne lidars for direct retrieval of dust properties or for the evaluation of chemical transport models using forward simulated lidar variables. In addition, we present first results on the spatial variation of forward-simulated lidar variables based on a dust model that accounts for the atmospheric cycle of eight different mineral types plus internal mixtures of seven mineral types with iron oxides, which was recently implemented in the NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.

An agent-based simulation model to study accountable care organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pai; Wu, Shinyi

2016-03-01

Creating accountable care organizations (ACOs) has been widely discussed as a strategy to control rapidly rising healthcare costs and improve quality of care; however, building an effective ACO is a complex process involving multiple stakeholders (payers, providers, patients) with their own interests. Also, implementation of an ACO is costly in terms of time and money. Immature design could cause safety hazards. Therefore, there is a need for analytical model-based decision-support tools that can predict the outcomes of different strategies to facilitate ACO design and implementation. In this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to study ACOs that considers payers, healthcare providers, and patients as agents under the shared saving payment model of care for congestive heart failure (CHF), one of the most expensive causes of sometimes preventable hospitalizations. The agent-based simulation model has identified the critical determinants for the payment model design that can motivate provider behavior changes to achieve maximum financial and quality outcomes of an ACO. The results show nonlinear provider behavior change patterns corresponding to changes in payment model designs. The outcomes vary by providers with different quality or financial priorities, and are most sensitive to the cost-effectiveness of CHF interventions that an ACO implements. This study demonstrates an increasingly important method to construct a healthcare system analytics model that can help inform health policy and healthcare management decisions. The study also points out that the likely success of an ACO is interdependent with payment model design, provider characteristics, and cost and effectiveness of healthcare interventions.

Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation From Emissions of Combustion Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Jathar, Shantanu Hemant

-only model suggested that differences in the volatility of the precursors were able to explain most of the variability observed in the SOA formation. For aircraft exhaust, the previous methods to simulate SOA formation from SVOC and IVOC performed poorly. A more physically-realistic modeling framework was developed, which was then used to show that SOA formation from aircraft exhaust was (a) higher for petroleum-based than synthetically derived jet fuel and (b) higher at lower engine loads and vice versa. All of the SOA data from combustion emissions experiments were used to determine source-specific parameterizations to model SOA formation from SVOC, IVOC and other unspeciated emissions. The new parameterizations were used to investigate their influence on the OA budget in the United States. Combustion sources were estimated to emit about 2.61 Tg yr-1 of SVOC, 1VOC and other unspeciated emissions (sixth of the total anthropogenic organic emissions), which are predicted to double SOA production from combustion sources in the United States. The contribution of SVOC and IVOC emissions to global SOA formation was assessed using a global climate model. Simulations were performed using a modified version of GISS GCM 11'. The modified model predicted that SVOC and IVOC contributed to half of the OA mass in the atmosphere. Their inclusion improved OA model-measurement comparisons for absolute concentrations, POA-SOA split and volatility (gas-particle partitioning) globally suggesting that atmospheric models need to incorporate SOA formation from SVOC and IVOC if they are to reasonably predict the abundance and properties of aerosols. This thesis demonstrates that SVOC/IVOC and possibly other unspeciated organics emitted by combustion sources are very important precursors of SOA and potentially large contributors to the atmospheric aerosol mass. Models used for research and policy applications need to represent them to improve model-predictions of aerosols on climate and health

Studying autism in rodent models: reconciling endophenotypes with comorbidities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew eArgyropoulos

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Autism spectrum disorder (ASD patients commonly exhibit a variety of comorbid traits including seizures, anxiety, aggressive behavior, gastrointestinal problems, motor deficits, abnormal sensory processing and sleep disturbances for which the cause is unknown. These features impact negatively on daily life and can exaggerate the effects of the core diagnostic traits (social communication deficits and repetitive behaviors. Studying endophenotypes relevant to both core and comorbid features of ASD in rodent models can provide insight into biological mechanisms underlying these disorders. Here we review the characterization of endophenotypes in a selection of environmental, genetic and behavioural rodent models of ASD. In addition to exhibiting core ASD-like behaviours, each of these animal models display one or more endophenotypes relevant to comorbid features including altered sensory processing, seizure susceptibility, anxiety-like behaviour and disturbed motor functions, suggesting that these traits are indicators of altered biological pathways in ASD. However, the study of behaviours paralleling comorbid traits in animal models of ASD is an emerging field and further research is needed to assess altered gastrointestinal function, aggression and disorders of sleep onset across models. Future studies should include investigation of these endophenotypes in order to advance our understanding of the etiology of this complex disorder.

An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

2003-07-01

Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

Development of hydrological models and surface process modelization Study case in High Mountain slopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loaiza, Juan Carlos; Pauwels, Valentijn R

2011-01-01

Hydrological models are useful because allow to predict fluxes into the hydrological systems, which is useful to predict foods and violent phenomenon associated to water fluxes, especially in materials under a high meteorization level. The combination of these models with meteorological predictions, especially with rainfall models, allow to model water behavior into the soil. On most of cases, this type of models is really sensible to evapotranspiration. On climatic studies, the superficial processes have to be represented adequately. Calibration and validation of these models is necessary to obtain reliable results. This paper is a practical exercise of application of complete hydrological information at detailed scale in a high mountain catchment, considering the soil use and types more representatives. The information of soil moisture, infiltration, runoff and rainfall is used to calibrate and validate TOPLATS hydrological model to simulate the behavior of soil moisture. The finds show that is possible to implement an hydrological model by means of soil moisture information use and an equation of calibration by Extended Kalman Filter (EKF).

Animal Models for the Study of Female Sexual Dysfunction

Science.gov (United States)

Marson, Lesley; Giamberardino, Maria Adele; Costantini, Raffaele; Czakanski, Peter; Wesselmann, Ursula

2017-01-01

Introduction Significant progress has been made in elucidating the physiological and pharmacological mechanisms of female sexual function through preclinical animal research. The continued development of animal models is vital for the understanding and treatment of the many diverse disorders that occur in women. Aim To provide an updated review of the experimental models evaluating female sexual function that may be useful for clinical translation. Methods Review of English written, peer-reviewed literature, primarily from 2000 to 2012, that described studies on female sexual behavior related to motivation, arousal, physiological monitoring of genital function and urogenital pain. Main Outcomes Measures Analysis of supporting evidence for the suitability of the animal model to provide measurable indices related to desire, arousal, reward, orgasm, and pelvic pain. Results The development of female animal models has provided important insights in the peripheral and central processes regulating sexual function. Behavioral models of sexual desire, motivation, and reward are well developed. Central arousal and orgasmic responses are less well understood, compared with the physiological changes associated with genital arousal. Models of nociception are useful for replicating symptoms and identifying the neurobiological pathways involved. While in some cases translation to women correlates with the findings in animals, the requirement of circulating hormones for sexual receptivity in rodents and the multifactorial nature of women’s sexual function requires better designed studies and careful analysis. The current models have studied sexual dysfunction or pelvic pain in isolation; combining these aspects would help to elucidate interactions of the pathophysiology of pain and sexual dysfunction. Conclusions Basic research in animals has been vital for understanding the anatomy, neurobiology, and physiological mechanisms underlying sexual function and urogenital pain

Modeling and Testing of EVs - Preliminary Study and Laboratory Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Guang-Ya; Marra, Francesco; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

2010-01-01

Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a key role in the future energy management system to stabilize both supply and consumption with the presence of high penetration of renewable generation. A reasonably accurate model of battery is a key element for the study of EVs behavior and the grid...... tests, followed by the suggestions towards a feasible battery model for further studies.......Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a key role in the future energy management system to stabilize both supply and consumption with the presence of high penetration of renewable generation. A reasonably accurate model of battery is a key element for the study of EVs behavior and the grid...... impact at different geographical areas, as well as driving and charging patterns. Electric circuit model is deployed in this work to represent the electrical properties of a lithium-ion battery. This paper reports the preliminary modeling and validation work based on manufacturer data sheet and realistic...

Analytical study of anisotropic compact star models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ivanov, B.V. [Bulgarian Academy of Science, Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Sofia (Bulgaria)

2017-11-15

A simple classification is given of the anisotropic relativistic star models, resembling the one of charged isotropic solutions. On the ground of this database, and taking into account the conditions for physically realistic star models, a method is proposed for generating all such solutions. It is based on the energy density and the radial pressure as seeding functions. Numerous relations between the realistic conditions are found and the need for a graphic proof is reduced just to one pair of inequalities. This general formalism is illustrated with an example of a class of solutions with linear equation of state and simple energy density. It is found that the solutions depend on three free constants and concrete examples are given. Some other popular models are studied with the same method. (orig.)

Evaluation of Multiclass Model Observers in PET LROC Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Gifford, H. C.; Kinahan, P. E.; Lartizien, C.; King, M. A.

2007-02-01

A localization ROC (LROC) study was conducted to evaluate nonprewhitening matched-filter (NPW) and channelized NPW (CNPW) versions of a multiclass model observer as predictors of human tumor-detection performance with PET images. Target localization is explicitly performed by these model observers. Tumors were placed in the liver, lungs, and background soft tissue of a mathematical phantom, and the data simulation modeled a full-3D acquisition mode. Reconstructions were performed with the FORE+AWOSEM algorithm. The LROC study measured observer performance with 2D images consisting of either coronal, sagittal, or transverse views of the same set of cases. Versions of the CNPW observer based on two previously published difference-of-Gaussian channel models demonstrated good quantitative agreement with human observers. One interpretation of these results treats the CNPW observer as a channelized Hotelling observer with implicit internal noise

Los sistemas de información geográfica como herramienta para monitorear las desigualdades de salud Geographic information systems as a tool for monitoring health inequalities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Loyola

2002-12-01

tipo de análisis epidemiológico a escala local de los servicios de salud mediante el uso de los SIG, es fácil reconocer cómo se comportan un fenómeno de salud y sus factores de riesgo determinantes en un período definido. Asimismo, es posible identificar patrones en la distribución espacial de los factores de riesgo y sus posibles efectos sobre la salud. La utilización adecuada de los SIG permitirá lograr mayor eficacia y equidad en la prestación de los servicios de salud pública.OBJECTIVE: To show how geographic information systems (GISs can be used as technological tools to support health policy and public health actions. METHODS: We assessed the relationship between infant mortality and a number of socioeconomic and geographic determinants. In explaining how GISs are applied, we stressed their ability to integrate data, which makes it possible to perform epidemiologic evaluations in a simpler, faster, automated way that simultaneously analyzes multiple variables with different levels of aggregation. In this study, GISs were applied in analyzing infant mortality data with three levels of aggregation in countries of the Americas from 1995 to 2000. RESULTS: Infant mortality in the Region of the Americas was estimated at an overall average of 24.4 deaths per 1 000 live births. However, the inequalities that were found indicate that the probability of an infant death is almost 20 times greater in the less developed countries of the Region than in more developed ones. Mapping infant mortality throughout the Region of the Americas allowed us to identify the countries that need to focus more attention on health policy and health programs, but not to determine what specific actions are of the highest priority. An analysis of smaller geopolitical units (states and municipalities revealed important differences within countries. This shows that, as is true of data for the entire Region of the Americas, using national-level average figures for indicators can obscure

Registration of dental erosive wear on study models and intra-oral photographs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hove, L H; Mulic, A; Tveit, A B; Stenhagen, K R; Skaare, A B; Espelid, I

2013-02-01

Clinical photographs and study models may provide permanent records of dental erosion and be useful supplements to clinical registration. To assess the reliability and validity of registrations on clinical photographs and study models performed by a group of examiners. Thirty tooth surfaces were selected and assessed clinically, using the visual erosion dental examination system. The chosen surfaces provided the whole range of dental erosions including sound surfaces. The tooth surfaces were photographed and impressions were obtained for preparation of study models. Thirty-three dentists examined and scored the selected surfaces both on photographs and study models. The quality of diagnosis (AUC, area under curve) was slightly higher using photographs as compared to study models. The difference was statistically significant when the validation criterion was erosion, assuming dentine exposure. The inter-method agreement on photographs and study models versus the clinical evaluation were approximately in the same range with a mean κw of 0.48 and 0.43, respectively. When comparing study models with photographs the mean κw was 0.52. The intra-examiner agreement was strong/substantial for both (photographs mean κw = 0.63 and study models mean κw = 0.60). Linear weighted Cohen's kappa (κw) was used to evaluate inter-method and intra-examiner agreement. Receiver operating characteristic and area under the curves were used to express diagnostic quality according to a clinical examination. The results indicated that photographs were as good as study models for recording erosive lesions.

The Family-Study Interface and Academic Outcomes: Testing a Structural Model

Science.gov (United States)

Meeuwisse, Marieke; Born, Marise Ph.; Severiens, Sabine E.

2011-01-01

Expanding on family-work and work-study models, this article investigated a model for family-study conflict and family-study facilitation. The focus of the study was the relationship of family-study conflict and family-study facilitation with students' effortful behaviors and academic performance among a sample of university students (N = 1,656).…

Exploring the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone with Fully Coupled Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Way, M.J; Del Genio, A.D.; Kelley, M.; Aleinov, I.; Clune, T.

2015-01-01

The role of rotation in planetary atmospheres plays an important role in regulating atmospheric and oceanic heat flow, cloud formation and precipitation. Using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) three dimension General Circulation Model (3D-GCM) we demonstrate how varying rotation rate and increasing the incident solar flux on a planet are related to each other and may allow the inner edge of the habitable zone to be much closer than many previous habitable zone studies have indicated. This is shown in particular for fully coupled ocean runs -- some of the first that have been utilized in this context. Results with a 100m mixed layer depth and our fully coupled ocean runs are compared with those of Yang et al. 2014, which demonstrates consistency across models. However, there are clear differences for rotations rates of 1-16x present earth day lengths between the mixed layer and fully couple ocean models, which points to the necessity of using fully coupled oceans whenever possible. The latter was recently demonstrated quite clearly by Hu & Yang 2014 in their aquaworld study with a fully coupled ocean when compared with similar mixed layer ocean studies and by Cullum et al. 2014. Atmospheric constituent amounts were also varied alongside adjustments to cloud parameterizations (results not shown here). While the latter have an effect on what a planet's global mean temperature is once the oceans reach equilibrium they do not qualitatively change the overall relationship between the globally averaged surface temperature and incident solar flux for rotation rates ranging from 1 to 256 times the present Earth day length. At the same time this study demonstrates that given the lack of knowledge about the atmospheric constituents and clouds on exoplanets there is still a large uncertainty as to where a planet will sit in a given star's habitable zone.

High-Level Waste Glass Formulation Model Sensitivity Study 2009 Glass Formulation Model Versus 1996 Glass Formulation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belsher, J.D.; Meinert, F.L.

2009-01-01

This document presents the differences between two HLW glass formulation models (GFM): The 1996 GFM and 2009 GFM. A glass formulation model is a collection of glass property correlations and associated limits, as well as model validity and solubility constraints; it uses the pretreated HLW feed composition to predict the amount and composition of glass forming additives necessary to produce acceptable HLW glass. The 2009 GFM presented in this report was constructed as a nonlinear optimization calculation based on updated glass property data and solubility limits described in PNNL-18501 (2009). Key mission drivers such as the total mass of HLW glass and waste oxide loading are compared between the two glass formulation models. In addition, a sensitivity study was performed within the 2009 GFM to determine the effect of relaxing various constraints on the predicted mass of the HLW glass.

Evaluating EML Modeling Tools for Insurance Purposes: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikael Gustavsson

2010-01-01

Full Text Available As with any situation that involves economical risk refineries may share their risk with insurers. The decision process generally includes modelling to determine to which extent the process area can be damaged. On the extreme end of modelling the so-called Estimated Maximum Loss (EML scenarios are found. These scenarios predict the maximum loss a particular installation can sustain. Unfortunately no standard model for this exists. Thus the insurers reach different results due to applying different models and different assumptions. Therefore, a study has been conducted on a case in a Swedish refinery where several scenarios previously had been modelled by two different insurance brokers using two different softwares, ExTool and SLAM. This study reviews the concept of EML and analyses the used models to see which parameters are most uncertain. Also a third model, EFFECTS, was employed in an attempt to reach a conclusion with higher reliability.

Basic models modeling resistance training: an update for basic scientists interested in study skeletal muscle hypertrophy.

Science.gov (United States)

Cholewa, Jason; Guimarães-Ferreira, Lucas; da Silva Teixeira, Tamiris; Naimo, Marshall Alan; Zhi, Xia; de Sá, Rafaele Bis Dal Ponte; Lodetti, Alice; Cardozo, Mayara Quadros; Zanchi, Nelo Eidy

2014-09-01

Human muscle hypertrophy brought about by voluntary exercise in laboratorial conditions is the most common way to study resistance exercise training, especially because of its reliability, stimulus control and easy application to resistance training exercise sessions at fitness centers. However, because of the complexity of blood factors and organs involved, invasive data is difficult to obtain in human exercise training studies due to the integration of several organs, including adipose tissue, liver, brain and skeletal muscle. In contrast, studying skeletal muscle remodeling in animal models are easier to perform as the organs can be easily obtained after euthanasia; however, not all models of resistance training in animals displays a robust capacity to hypertrophy the desired muscle. Moreover, some models of resistance training rely on voluntary effort, which complicates the results observed when animal models are employed since voluntary capacity is something theoretically impossible to measure in rodents. With this information in mind, we will review the modalities used to simulate resistance training in animals in order to present to investigators the benefits and risks of different animal models capable to provoke skeletal muscle hypertrophy. Our second objective is to help investigators analyze and select the experimental resistance training model that best promotes the research question and desired endpoints. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Geochemical modeling of uranium mill tailings: a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, S.R.; Felmy, A.R.; Serne, R.J.; Gee, G.W.

1983-08-01

Liner failure was not found to be a problem when various acidic tailings solutions leached through liner materials for periods up to 3 y. On the contrary, materials that contained over 30% clay showed a decrease in permeability with time in the laboratory columns. The decreases in permeability noted above are attributed to pore plugging resulting from the precipitation of minerals and solids. This precipitation takes place due to the increase in pH of the tailings solution brought about by the buffering capacity of the soil. Geochemical modeling predicts, and x-ray characterization confirms, that precipitation of solids from solution is occurring in the acidic tailings solution/liner interactions studied. X-ray diffraction identified gypsum and alunite group minerals, such as jarosite, as having precipitated after acidic tailings solutions reacted with clay liners. The geochemical modeling and experimental work described above were used to construct an equilibrium conceptual model consisting of minerals and solid phases. This model was developed to represent a soil column. A computer program was used as a tool to solve the system of mathematical equations imposed by the conceptual chemical model. The combined conceptual model and computer program were used to predict aqueous phase compositions of effluent solutions from permeability cells packed with geologic materials and percolated with uranium mill tailings solutions. An initial conclusion drawn from these studies is that the laboratory experiments and geochemical modeling predictions were capable of simulating field observations. The same mineralogical changes and contaminant reductions observed in the laboratory studies were found at a drained evaporation pond (Lucky Mc in Wyoming) with a 10-year history of acid attack. 24 references, 5 figures 5 tables

Study of the nonlinear imperfect software debugging model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jinyong; Wu, Zhibo

2016-01-01

In recent years there has been a dramatic proliferation of research on imperfect software debugging phenomena. Software debugging is a complex process and is affected by a variety of factors, including the environment, resources, personnel skills, and personnel psychologies. Therefore, the simple assumption that debugging is perfect is inconsistent with the actual software debugging process, wherein a new fault can be introduced when removing a fault. Furthermore, the fault introduction process is nonlinear, and the cumulative number of nonlinearly introduced faults increases over time. Thus, this paper proposes a nonlinear, NHPP imperfect software debugging model in consideration of the fact that fault introduction is a nonlinear process. The fitting and predictive power of the NHPP-based proposed model are validated through related experiments. Experimental results show that this model displays better fitting and predicting performance than the traditional NHPP-based perfect and imperfect software debugging models. S-confidence bounds are set to analyze the performance of the proposed model. This study also examines and discusses optimal software release-time policy comprehensively. In addition, this research on the nonlinear process of fault introduction is significant given the recent surge of studies on software-intensive products, such as cloud computing and big data. - Highlights: • Fault introduction is a nonlinear changing process during the debugging phase. • The assumption that the process of fault introduction is nonlinear is credible. • Our proposed model can better fit and accurately predict software failure behavior. • Research on fault introduction case is significant to software-intensive products.

Modeling and numerical study of two phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Champmartin, A.

2011-01-01

This thesis describes the modelization and the simulation of two-phase systems composed of droplets moving in a gas. The two phases interact with each other and the type of model to consider directly depends on the type of simulations targeted. In the first part, the two phases are considered as fluid and are described using a mixture model with a drift relation (to be able to follow the relative velocity between the two phases and take into account two velocities), the two-phase flows are assumed at the equilibrium in temperature and pressure. This part of the manuscript consists of the derivation of the equations, writing a numerical scheme associated with this set of equations, a study of this scheme and simulations. A mathematical study of this model (hyperbolicity in a simplified framework, linear stability analysis of the system around a steady state) was conducted in a frame where the gas is assumed baro-tropic. The second part is devoted to the modelization of the effect of inelastic collisions on the particles when the time of the simulation is shorter and the droplets can no longer be seen as a fluid. We introduce a model of inelastic collisions for droplets in a spray, leading to a specific Boltzmann kernel. Then, we build caricatures of this kernel of BGK type, in which the behavior of the first moments of the solution of the Boltzmann equation (that is mass, momentum, directional temperatures, variance of the internal energy) are mimicked. The quality of these caricatures is tested numerically at the end. (author) [fr

Modeling study of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field, Kamchatka, Russia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiryukhin, A.V. [Institute of Volcanology, Kamchatsky (Russian Federation); Yampolsky, V.A. [Kamchatskburgeotermia State Enterprise, Elizovo (Russian Federation)

2004-08-01

Exploitation of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field started in 1966 with a 5 MW{sub e} power plant. A hydrogeological model of the Pauzhetsky field has been developed based on an integrated analysis of data on lithological units, temperature, pressure, production zones and natural discharge distributions. A one-layer 'well by well' model with specified vertical heat and mass exchange conditions has been used to represent the main features of the production reservoir. Numerical model development was based on the TOUGH2 code [Pruess, 1991. TOUGH2 - A General Purpose Numerical Simulator for Multiphase Fluid and Heat Flow, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Report, Berkeley, CA; Pruess et al., 1999. TOUGH2 User's Guide, Version 2.0, Report LBNL-43134, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA] coupled with tables generated by the HOLA wellbore simulator [Aunzo et al., 1991. Wellbore Models GWELL, GWNACL, and HOLA, Users Guide, Draft, 81 pp.]. Lahey Fortran-90 compiler and computer graphical packages (Didger-3, Surfer-8, Grapher-3) were also used to model the development process. The modeling study of the natural-state conditions was targeted on a temperature distribution match to estimate the natural high-temperature upflow parameters: the mass flow-rate was estimated at 220 kg/s with enthalpy of 830-920 kJ/kg. The modeling study for the 1964-2000 exploitation period of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field was targeted at matching the transient reservoir pressure and flowing enthalpies of the production wells. The modeling study of exploitation confirmed that 'double porosity' in the reservoir, with a 10-20% active volume of 'fractures', and a thermo-mechanical response to reinjection (including changes in porosity due to compressibility and expansivity), were the key parameters of the model. The calibrated model of the Pauzhetsky geothermal field was used to forecast reservoir behavior under different exploitation scenarios for

Modelling in Action. Examining How Students Approach Modelling Real Life Situations. Three Case Studies. Model of the Movement of an Elevator

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas, Eugenia Marmolejo

2015-01-01

By means of three case studies, we will present two mathematical modelling activities that are suitable for students enrolled in senior high school and the first year of mathematics at university level. The activities have been designed to enrich the learning process and promote the formation of vital modelling skills. In case studies one and two,…

A study for production simulation model generation system based on data model at a shipyard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myung-Gi Back

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Simulation technology is a type of shipbuilding product lifecycle management solution used to support production planning or decision-making. Normally, most shipbuilding processes are consisted of job shop production, and the modeling and simulation require professional skills and experience on shipbuilding. For these reasons, many shipbuilding companies have difficulties adapting simulation systems, regardless of the necessity for the technology. In this paper, the data model for shipyard production simulation model generation was defined by analyzing the iterative simulation modeling procedure. The shipyard production simulation data model defined in this study contains the information necessary for the conventional simulation modeling procedure and can serve as a basis for simulation model generation. The efficacy of the developed system was validated by applying it to the simulation model generation of the panel block production line. By implementing the initial simulation model generation process, which was performed in the past with a simulation modeler, the proposed system substantially reduced the modeling time. In addition, by reducing the difficulties posed by different modeler-dependent generation methods, the proposed system makes the standardization of the simulation model quality possible.

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Choosing preclinical study models of diabetic retinopathy: key problems for consideration

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, Xue-Song; Yuan, Ti-Fei; Ding, Yong; Zhong, Jing-Xiang; So, Kwok-Fai

2014-01-01

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the most common complication of diabetes mellitus in the eye. Although the clinical treatment for DR has already developed to a relative high level, there are still many urgent problems that need to be investigated in clinical and basic science. Currently, many in vivo animal models and in vitro culture systems have been applied to solve these problems. Many approaches have also been used to establish different DR models. However, till now, there has not been a single study model that can clearly and exactly mimic the developmental process of the human DR. Choosing the suitable model is important, not only for achieving our research goals smoothly, but also, to better match with different experimental proposals in the study. In this review, key problems for consideration in choosing study models of DR are discussed. These problems relate to clinical relevance, different approaches for establishing models, and choice of different species of animals as well as of the specific in vitro culture systems. Attending to these considerations will deepen the understanding on current study models and optimize the experimental design for the final goal of preventing DR. PMID:25429204

An optomechanical model eye for ophthalmological refractive studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Arianpour, Ashkan; Tremblay, Eric J; Stamenov, Igor; Ford, Joseph E; Schanzlin, David J; Lo, Yuhwa

2013-02-01

To create an accurate, low-cost optomechanical model eye for investigation of refractive errors in clinical and basic research studies. An optomechanical fluid-filled eye model with dimensions consistent with the human eye was designed and fabricated. Optical simulations were performed on the optomechanical eye model, and the quantified resolution and refractive errors were compared with the widely used Navarro eye model using the ray-tracing software ZEMAX (Radiant Zemax, Redmond, WA). The resolution of the physical optomechanical eye model was then quantified with a complementary metal-oxide semiconductor imager using the image resolution software SFR Plus (Imatest, Boulder, CO). Refractive, manufacturing, and assembling errors were also assessed. A refractive intraocular lens (IOL) and a diffractive IOL were added to the optomechanical eye model for tests and analyses of a 1951 U.S. Air Force target chart. Resolution and aberrations of the optomechanical eye model and the Navarro eye model were qualitatively similar in ZEMAX simulations. Experimental testing found that the optomechanical eye model reproduced properties pertinent to human eyes, including resolution better than 20/20 visual acuity and a decrease in resolution as the field of view increased in size. The IOLs were also integrated into the optomechanical eye model to image objects at distances of 15, 10, and 3 feet, and they indicated a resolution of 22.8 cycles per degree at 15 feet. A life-sized optomechanical eye model with the flexibility to be patient-specific was designed and constructed. The model had the resolution of a healthy human eye and recreated normal refractive errors. This model may be useful in the evaluation of IOLs for cataract surgery. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

General circulation model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinto, J.P.; Yung, Y.L.; Rind, D.; Russell, G.L.; Lerner, J.A.; Hansen, J.E.; Hameed, S.

1983-01-01

The carbon monoxide cycle is studied by incorporating the known and hypothetical sources and sinks in a tracer model that uses the winds generated by a general circulation model. Photochemical production and loss terms, which depend on OH radical concentrations, are calculated in an interactive fashion. The computed global distribution and seasonal variations of CO are compared with observations to obtain constraints on the distribution and magnitude of the sources and sinks of CO, and on the tropospheric abundance of OH. The simplest model that accounts for available observations requires a low latitude plant source of about 1.3 x 10 15 g yr -1 , in addition to sources from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and oxidation of methane. The globally averaged OH concentration calculated in the model is 7 x 10 5 cm -3 . Models that calculate globally averaged OH concentrations much lower than our nominal value are not consistent with the observed variability of CO. Such models are also inconsistent with measurements of CO isotopic abundances, which imply the existence of plant sources

Cost Model Comparison: A Study of Internally and Commercially Developed Cost Models in Use by NASA

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Garima

2011-01-01

NASA makes use of numerous cost models to accurately estimate the cost of various components of a mission - hardware, software, mission/ground operations - during the different stages of a mission's lifecycle. The purpose of this project was to survey these models and determine in which respects they are similar and in which they are different. The initial survey included a study of the cost drivers for each model, the form of each model (linear/exponential/other CER, range/point output, capable of risk/sensitivity analysis), and for what types of missions and for what phases of a mission lifecycle each model is capable of estimating cost. The models taken into consideration consisted of both those that were developed by NASA and those that were commercially developed: GSECT, NAFCOM, SCAT, QuickCost, PRICE, and SEER. Once the initial survey was completed, the next step in the project was to compare the cost models' capabilities in terms of Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements. This final comparison was then portrayed in a visual manner with Venn diagrams. All of the materials produced in the process of this study were then posted on the Ground Segment Team (GST) Wiki.

Comprehensive School Reform Models: A Study Guide for Comparing CSR Models (and How Well They Meet Minnesota's Learning Standards).

Science.gov (United States)

St. John, Edward P.; Loescher, Siri; Jacob, Stacy; Cekic, Osman; Kupersmith, Leigh; Musoba, Glenda Droogsma

A growing number of schools are exploring the prospect of applying for funding to implement a Comprehensive School Reform (CSR) model. But the process of selecting a CSR model can be complicated because it frequently involves self-study and a review of models to determine which models best meet the needs of the school. This study guide is intended…

A Study of Prisoner’s Dilemma Game Model with Incomplete Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuqin Deng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Prisoners’ dilemma is a typical game theory issue. In our study, it is regarded as an incomplete information game with unpublicized game strategies. We solve our problem by establishing a machine learning model using Bayes formula. The model established is referred to as the Bayes model. Based on the Bayesian model, we can make the prediction of players’ choices to better complete the unknown information in the game. And we suggest the hash table to make improvement in space and time complexity. We build a game system with several types of game strategy for testing. In double- or multiplayer games, the Bayes model is more superior to other strategy models; the total income using Bayes model is higher than that of other models. Moreover, from the result of the games on the natural model with Bayes model, as well as the natural model with TFT model, it is found that Bayes model accrued more benefits than TFT model on average. This demonstrates that the Bayes model introduced in this study is feasible and effective. Therefore, it provides a novel method of solving incomplete information game problem.

STUDY OF INSTRUCTIONAL MODELS AND SYNTAX AS AN EFFORT FOR DEVELOPING ‘OIDDE’ INSTRUCTIONAL MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Atok Miftachul Hudha

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The 21st century requires the availability of human resources with seven skills or competence (Maftuh, 2016, namely: 1 critical thinking and problem solving skills, 2 creative and innovative, 3 behave ethically, 4 flexible and quick to adapt, 5 competence in ICT and literacy, 6 interpersonal and collaborative capabilities, 7 social skills and cross-cultural interaction. One of the competence of human resources of the 21st century are behaving ethically should be established and developed through learning that includes the study of ethics because ethical behavior can not be created and owned as it is by human, but must proceed through solving problem, especially ethical dilemma solving on the ethical problems atau problematics of ethics. The fundamental problem, in order to ethical behavior competence can be achieved through learning, is the right model of learning is not found yet by teachers to implement the learning associated with ethical values as expected in character education (Hudha, et al, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c. Therefore, it needs a decent learning model (valid, practical and effective so that ethics learning, to establish a human resources behave ethically, can be met. Thus, it is necessary to study (to analyze and modificate the steps of learning (syntax existing learning model, in order to obtain the results of the development model of learning syntax. One model of learning that is feasible, practical, and effective question is the learning model on the analysis and modification of syntax model of social learning, syntax learning model systems behavior (Joyce and Weil, 1980, Joyce, et al, 2009 as well as syntax learning model Tri Prakoro (Akbar, 2013. The modified syntax generate learning model 'OIDDE' which is an acronym of orientation, identify, discussion, decision, and engage in behavior.

A new in situ model to study erosive enamel wear, a clinical pilot study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruben, J.L.; Truin, G.J.; Bronkhorst, E.M.; Huysmans, M.C.D.N.J.M.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To develop an in situ model for erosive wear research which allows for more clinically relevant exposure parameters than other in situ models and to show tooth site-specific erosive wear effect of an acid challenge of orange juice on enamel. METHODS: This pilot study included 6

A Descriptive Study of Differing School Health Delivery Models

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Sherri I.; Maughan, Erin

2017-01-01

The purpose of this exploratory qualitative study was to identify and describe emerging models of school health services. Participants (N = 11) provided information regarding their models in semistructured phone interviews. Results identified a variety of funding sources as well as different staffing configurations and supervision. Strengths of…

Cooling problems of thermal power plants. Physical model studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neale, L.C.

1975-01-01

The Alden Research Laboratories of Worcester Polytechnic Institute has for many years conducted physical model studies, which are normally classified as river or structural hydraulic studies. Since 1952 one aspect of these studies has involved the heated discharge from steam power plants. The early studies on such problems concentrated on improving the thermal efficiency of the system. This was accomplished by minimizing recirculation and by assuring full use of available cold water supplies. With the growing awareness of the impact of thermal power generation on the environment attention has been redirected to reducing the effect of heated discharges on the biology of the receiving body of water. More specifically the efforts of designers and operators of power plants are aimed at meeting or complying with standards established by various governmental agencies. Thus the studies involve developing means of minimizing surface temperatures at an outfall or establishing a local area of higher temperature with limits specified in terms of areas or distances. The physical models used for these studies have varied widely in scope, size, and operating features. These models have covered large areas with both distorted geometric scales and uniform dimensions. Instrumentations has also varied from simple mercury thermometers to computer control and processing of hundreds of thermocouple indicators

A study of critical two-phase flow models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siikonen, T.

1982-01-01

The existing computer codes use different boundary conditions in the calculation of critical two-phase flow. In the present study these boundary conditions are compared. It is shown that the boundary condition should be determined from the hydraulic model used in the computer code. The use of a correlation, which is not based on the hydraulic model used, leads often to bad results. Usually a good agreement with data is obtained in the calculation as far as the critical mass flux is concerned, but the agreement is not so good in the pressure profiles. The reason is suggested to be mainly in inadequate modeling of non-equilibrium effects. (orig.)

Modelling study of sea breezes in a complex coastal environment

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, X.-M.; Steyn, D. G.

This study investigates a mesoscale modelling of sea breezes blowing from a narrow strait into the lower Fraser valley (LFV), British Columbia, Canada, during the period of 17-20 July, 1985. Without a nudging scheme in the inner grid, the CSU-RAMS model produces satisfactory wind and temperature fields during the daytime. In comparison with observation, the agreement indices for surface wind and temperature during daytime reach about 0.6 and 0.95, respectively, while the agreement indices drop to 0.4 at night. In the vertical, profiles of modelled wind and temperature generally agree with tethersonde data collected on 17 and 19 July. The study demonstrates that in late afternoon, the model does not capture the advection of an elevated warm layer which originated from land surfaces outside of the inner grid. Mixed layer depth (MLD) is calculated from model output of turbulent kinetic energy field. Comparison of MLD results with observation shows that the method generates a reliable MLD during the daytime, and that accurate estimates of MLD near the coast require the correct simulation of wind conditions over the sea. The study has shown that for a complex coast environment like the LFV, a reliable modelling study depends not only on local surface fluxes but also on elevated layers transported from remote land surfaces. This dependence is especially important when local forcings are weak, for example, during late afternoon and at night.

System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elsy Nalleli Loria-Cervera

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106 of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Penson-Kolb-Hubbard model: a renormalisation group study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Bibhas; Roy, G.K.

1995-01-01

The Penson-Kolb-Hubbard (PKH) model in one dimension (1d) by means of real space renormalisation group (RG) method for the half-filled band has been studied. Different phases are identified by studying the RG-flow pattern, the energy gap and different correlation functions. The phase diagram consists of four phases: a spin density wave (SDW), a strong coupling superconducting phase (SSC), a weak coupling superconducting phase (WSC) and a nearly metallic phase. For the negative value of the pair hopping amplitude introduced in this model it was found that the pair-pair correlation indicates a superconducting phase for which the centre-of-mass of the pairs move with a momentum π. (author). 7 refs., 4 figs

An ecohydrological model for studying groundwater-vegetation interactions in wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Chui, Ting Fong May; Low, Swee Yang; Liong, Shie-Yui

2011-10-01

SummaryDespite their importance to the natural environment, wetlands worldwide face drastic degradation from changes in land use and climatic patterns. To help preservation efforts and guide conservation strategies, a clear understanding of the dynamic relationship between coupled hydrology and vegetation systems in wetlands, and their responses to engineering works and climate change, is needed. An ecohydrological model was developed in this study to address this issue. The model combines a hydrology component based on the Richards' equation for characterizing variably saturated groundwater flow, with a vegetation component described by Lotka-Volterra equations tailored for plant growth. Vegetation is represented by two characteristic wetland herbaceous plant types which differ in their flood and drought resistances. Validation of the model on a study site in the Everglades demonstrated the capability of the model in capturing field-measured water table and transpiration dynamics. The model was next applied on a section of the Nee Soon swamp forest, a tropical wetland in Singapore, for studying the impact of possible drainage works on the groundwater hydrology and native vegetation. Drainage of 10 m downstream of the wetland resulted in a localized zone of influence within half a kilometer from the drainage site with significant adverse impacts on groundwater and biomass levels, indicating a strong need for conservation. Simulated water table-plant biomass relationships demonstrated the capability of the model in capturing the time-lag in biomass response to water table changes. To test the significance of taking plant growth into consideration, the performance of the model was compared to one that substituted the vegetation component with a pre-specified evapotranspiration rate. Unlike its revised counterpart, the original ecohydrological model explicitly accounted for the drainage-induced plant biomass decrease and translated the resulting reduced transpiration

Crystal study and econometric model

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

A Theoretical Study of Subsurface Drainage Model Simulation of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow model, the SEAWAT model, was used to assess the influence of subsurface drain spacing, evapotranspiration and irrigation water quality on salt concentration at the base of the root zone, leaching and drainage in salt affected irrigated land. The study was carried out ...

Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

2012-12-01

Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

Model studies of the transfer of radionuclides in the Finnish environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korhonen, R.

1991-01-01

Environmental modelling of the effects of radionuclide releases was studied. A computer model DETl2A was developed for evaluation of radionuclide transfer. The flexible structure of the model made it suitable for a wide range of applications. The model was employed to evaluate the biospheric transfer of radionuclides in two situations: 1) release cases from planned waste repositories in Finland, and 2) deposition due to the Chernobyl accident. The Chernobyl accident provided a good opportunity to test the DETRA model, originally constructed for waste disposal applications. A study was made of some biospheric local, regional and global scale scenarios, to which releases from repositories were assumed. Drinking water from a local well and consumption of fish were the most important dose pathways. The transfer of the Chernobyl deposition in some important Finnish transfer environments was evaluated. Especially the transfer of Cs-137 in the Kymijoki watercourse, including dynamic transfer to non-predatory and predatory fish species was studied. The calculated behaviour was compared with the measured behaviour. Nuclear weapon testing fallout was also considered in the comparison studies. On the basis of validation studies it was concluded that part of the Cs-137 deposition was in insoluble form. These model assumptions give that deposition consisting of soluble Cs-l37 could cause fourfold contamination of fish per unit deposition than deposition due to the Chernobyl accident in the modelled case. Model validation was also performed within international projects, in particular by participating in the BIOMOVS project. This participation will be continued in the VAMP program. In the summary part of the thesis the main attention is paid to modelling questions, whereas in the accompanying publications the results are presented in greater detail

Modeling study on geological environment at Horonobe URL site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimo, Michito; Yamamoto, Hajime; Kumamoto, Sou; Fujiwara, Yasushi; Ono, Makoto

2005-02-01

The Horonobe underground research project has been operated by Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute to study the geological environment of sedimentary rocks in deep underground. The objectives of this study are to develop a geological environment model, which incorporate the current findings and the data obtained through the geological, geophysical, and borehole investigations at Horonobe site, and to predict the hydrological and geochemical impacts caused by the URL shaft excavation to the surrounding area. A three-dimensional geological structure model was constructed, integrating a large-scale model (25km x 15km) and a high-resolution site-scale model (4km x 4km) that have been developed by JNC. The constructed model includes surface topography, geologic formations (such as Yuchi, Koetoi, Wakkanai, and Masuporo Formations), and two major faults (Ohomagari fault and N1 fault). In hydrogeological modeling, water-conductive fractures identified in Wakkanai Formation are modeled stochastically using EHCM (Equivalent Heterogeneous Continuum Model) approach, to represent hydraulic heterogeneity and anisotropy in the fractured rock mass. Numerical code EQUIV FLO (Shimo et al., 1996), which is a 3D unsaturated-saturated groundwater simulator capable of EHCM, was used to simulate the regional groundwater flow. We used the same model and the code to predict the transient hydrological changes caused by the shaft excavations. Geochemical data in the Horonobe site such as water chemistries, mineral compositions of rocks were collected and summarized into digital datasets. M3 (Multivariate, Mixing and Mass-balance) method developed by SKB (Laaksoharju et al., 1999) was used to identify waters of different origins, and to infer the mixing ratio of these end-members to reproduce each sample's chemistry. Thermodynamic code such as RHREEQC, GWB, and EQ3/6 were used to model chemical reactions that explain the present minerals and aqueous concentrations observed in the site

An Australasian hockey stick and associated climate wars

Science.gov (United States)

Karoly, David; Gergis, Joelle; Neukom, Raphael; Gallant, Ailie

2017-04-01

Multiproxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land-ocean region of Australasia (0°-50°S, 110°E-180°) covering the last millennium (1000-2001CE). Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four different statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the largest R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985-2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks — R28, R3, and R2). An earlier manuscript describing this study and its results was accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate in May 2012, after two thorough rounds of review. However, as described by Gergis (2016), after the early online release of the paper, a typo in the methods section was identified. While the paper said the study had used "detrended" data - observed temperature data from which the longer-term trends had been removed - the study had in fact used raw data. Both raw and

Modelling and propagation of uncertainties in the German Risk Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofer, E.; Krzykacz, B.

1982-01-01

Risk assessments are generally subject to uncertainty considerations. This is because of the various estimates that are involved. The paper points out those estimates in the so-called phase A of the German Risk Study, for which uncertainties were quantified. It explains the probabilistic models applied in the assessment to their impact on the findings of the study. Finally the resulting subjective confidence intervals of the study results are presented and their sensitivity to these probabilistic models is investigated

Risk modelling study for carotid endarterectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhan, G; Gardiner, E D; Abidia, A F; Chetter, I C; Renwick, P M; Johnson, B F; Wilkinson, A R; McCollum, P T

2001-12-01

The aims of this study were to identify factors that influence the risk of stroke or death following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and to develop a model to aid in comparative audit of vascular surgeons and units. A series of 839 CEAs performed by four vascular surgeons between 1992 and 1999 was analysed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to model the effect of 15 possible risk factors on the 30-day risk of stroke or death. Outcome was compared for four surgeons and two units after adjustment for the significant risk factors. The overall 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent (29 of 741). Heart disease, diabetes and stroke were significant risk factors. The 30-day predicted stroke or death rates increased with increasing risk scores. The observed 30-day stroke or death rate was 3.9 per cent for both vascular units and varied from 3.0 to 4.2 per cent for the four vascular surgeons. Differences in the outcomes between the surgeons and vascular units did not reach statistical significance after risk adjustment. Diabetes, heart disease and stroke are significant risk factors for stroke or death following CEA. The risk score model identified patients at higher risk and aided in comparative audit.

Light aircraft sound transmission studies - Noise reduction model

Science.gov (United States)

Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

1987-01-01

Experimental tests conducted on the fuselage of a single-engine Piper Cherokee light aircraft suggest that the cabin interior noise can be reduced by increasing the transmission loss of the dominant sound transmission paths and/or by increasing the cabin interior sound absorption. The validity of using a simple room equation model to predict the cabin interior sound-pressure level for different fuselage and exterior sound field conditions is also presented. The room equation model is based on the sound power flow balance for the cabin space and utilizes the measured transmitted sound intensity data. The room equation model predictions were considered good enough to be used for preliminary acoustical design studies.

A Dynamic Wind Generation Model for Power Systems Studies

OpenAIRE

Estanqueiro, Ana

2007-01-01

In this paper, a wind park dynamic model is presented together with a base methodology for its application to power system studies. This detailed wind generation model addresses the wind turbine components and phenomena more relevant to characterize the power quality of a grid connected wind park, as well as the wind park response to the grid fast perturbations, e.g., low voltage ride through fault. The developed model was applied to the operating conditions of the selected sets of wind turbi...

A study on an optimal movement model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feng Jianfeng [COGS, Sussex University, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK (United Kingdom); Zhang, Kewei [SMS, Sussex University, Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Luo Yousong [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, RMIT University, GOP Box 2476V, Melbourne, Vic 3001 (Australia)

2003-07-11

We present an analytical and rigorous study on a TOPS (task optimization in the presence of signal-dependent noise) model with a hold-on or an end-point control. Optimal control signals are rigorously obtained, which enables us to investigate various issues about the model including its trajectories, velocities, control signals, variances and the dependence of these quantities on various model parameters. With the hold-on control, we find that the optimal control can be implemented with an almost 'nil' hold-on period. The optimal control signal is a linear combination of two sub-control signals. One of the sub-control signals is positive and the other is negative. With the end-point control, the end-point variance is dramatically reduced, in comparison with the hold-on control. However, the velocity is not symmetric (bell shape). Finally, we point out that the velocity with a hold-on control takes the bell shape only within a limited parameter region.

Guadalupe River, California, Sedimentation Study. Numerical Model Investigation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Copeland, Ronald

2002-01-01

A numerical model study was conducted to evaluate the potential impact that the Guadalupe River flood-control project would have on channel stability in terms of channel aggradation and degradation...

A comparative study of the constitutive models for silicon carbide

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Jow-Lian; Dwivedi, Sunil; Gupta, Yogendra

2001-06-01

Most of the constitutive models for polycrystalline silicon carbide were developed and evaluated using data from either normal plate impact or Hopkinson bar experiments. At ISP, extensive efforts have been made to gain detailed insight into the shocked state of the silicon carbide (SiC) using innovative experimental methods, viz., lateral stress measurements, in-material unloading measurements, and combined compression shear experiments. The data obtained from these experiments provide some unique information for both developing and evaluating material models. In this study, these data for SiC were first used to evaluate some of the existing models to identify their strength and possible deficiencies. Motivated by both the results of this comparative study and the experimental observations, an improved phenomenological model was developed. The model incorporates pressure dependence of strength, rate sensitivity, damage evolution under both tension and compression, pressure confinement effect on damage evolution, stiffness degradation due to damage, and pressure dependence of stiffness. The model developments are able to capture most of the material features observed experimentally, but more work is needed to better match the experimental data quantitatively.

The contribution of animal models to the study of obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Speakman, John; Hambly, Catherine; Mitchell, Sharon; Król, Elzbieta

2008-10-01

Obesity results from prolonged imbalance of energy intake and energy expenditure. Animal models have provided a fundamental contribution to the historical development of understanding the basic parameters that regulate the components of our energy balance. Five different types of animal model have been employed in the study of the physiological and genetic basis of obesity. The first models reflect single gene mutations that have arisen spontaneously in rodent colonies and have subsequently been characterized. The second approach is to speed up the random mutation rate artificially by treating rodents with mutagens or exposing them to radiation. The third type of models are mice and rats where a specific gene has been disrupted or over-expressed as a deliberate act. Such genetically-engineered disruptions may be generated through the entire body for the entire life (global transgenic manipulations) or restricted in both time and to certain tissue or cell types. In all these genetically-engineered scenarios, there are two types of situation that lead to insights: where a specific gene hypothesized to play a role in the regulation of energy balance is targeted, and where a gene is disrupted for a different purpose, but the consequence is an unexpected obese or lean phenotype. A fourth group of animal models concern experiments where selective breeding has been utilized to derive strains of rodents that differ in their degree of fatness. Finally, studies have been made of other species including non-human primates and dogs. In addition to studies of the physiological and genetic basis of obesity, studies of animal models have also informed us about the environmental aspects of the condition. Studies in this context include exploring the responses of animals to high fat or high fat/high sugar (Cafeteria) diets, investigations of the effects of dietary restriction on body mass and fat loss, and studies of the impact of candidate pharmaceuticals on components of energy

Business Model Perusahaan Keluarga: Studi Kasus Pada Industri Batik

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achmad Sobirin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available AbstractThis paper was directed to review the existing busniness model of family firm within the contect of batik industry and propose a new one. Busniness model is conceived as the logic of doing business for value creation. Therefore business model is sometime understood as a construct, a mental model or a business paradigm, to be used as a guide on how to do every day’s business. Meanwhile, family firm, by definition is a firm in which the whole or majority of ownership is in the hand of family unit, managed by family members, and to be transferred to the next generation. Using a single case study that is Perusahaan Batik Bogavira – a family business enterprise producing and selling specifically batik Lampung, we identified that the existing business model of Perusahaan Batik Bogavira may potentially create cannibalism. Therefore we proposed a new business model configuration with the hope loyal buyers remain with the firm and at the same time firm can still maintain its growth.Keywords: business model, family firm, batik industry.Abstrak Paper ini membahas penerapan sebuah konsep yang relatif masih baru yaitu “business model” pada perusahaan keluarga yang bergerak di industry batik – Perusahaan Batik Bogavira yang memroduksi dan menjual batik khas Lampung. Tujuannya adalah untuk menelaah ulang business model berjalan sehingga bisa diketahui tingkat kecocokan business model tersebut dengan karakteristik bisnis dan lingkungannya, dan jika dianggap perlu mengusulkan business model baru yang lebih sesuai. Bahasan diawali dengan menelaah konsep business model dan perusahaan keluarga untuk mendapatkan gambaran tentang esensi kedua konsep tersebut. Secara umum business model adalah the logic of doing business for value creation sehingga business model sering disebut juga sebagai construct, mental model atau business paradigm yang menjadi panduan dalam menjalankan kegiatan bisnis. Sementara itu yang dimaksud dengan perusahaan keluarga

How Model Can Help Inquiry--A Qualitative Study of Model Based Inquiry Learning (Mobile) in Engineering Education

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Yu

2017-01-01

This study investigates how students can use "interactive example models" in inquiry activities to develop their conceptual knowledge about an engineering phenomenon like electromagnetic fields and waves. An interactive model, for example a computational model, could be used to develop and teach principles of dynamic complex systems, and…

A study of spatial resolution in pollution exposure modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustafsson Susanna

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This study is part of several ongoing projects concerning epidemiological research into the effects on health of exposure to air pollutants in the region of Scania, southern Sweden. The aim is to investigate the optimal spatial resolution, with respect to temporal resolution, for a pollutant database of NOx-values which will be used mainly for epidemiological studies with durations of days, weeks or longer periods. The fact that a pollutant database has a fixed spatial resolution makes the choice critical for the future use of the database. Results The results from the study showed that the accuracy between the modelled concentrations of the reference grid with high spatial resolution (100 m, denoted the fine grid, and the coarser grids (200, 400, 800 and 1600 meters improved with increasing spatial resolution. When the pollutant values were aggregated in time (from hours to days and weeks the disagreement between the fine grid and the coarser grids were significantly reduced. The results also illustrate a considerable difference in optimal spatial resolution depending on the characteristic of the study area (rural or urban areas. To estimate the accuracy of the modelled values comparison were made with measured NOx values. The mean difference between the modelled and the measured value were 0.6 μg/m3 and the standard deviation 5.9 μg/m3 for the daily difference. Conclusion The choice of spatial resolution should not considerably deteriorate the accuracy of the modelled NOx values. Considering the comparison between modelled and measured values we estimate that an error due to coarse resolution greater than 1 μg/m3 is inadvisable if a time resolution of one day is used. Based on the study of different spatial resolutions we conclude that for urban areas a spatial resolution of 200–400 m is suitable; and for rural areas the spatial resolution could be coarser (about 1600 m. This implies that we should develop a pollutant

Monte Carlo study of the hull distribution for the q = 1 Brauer model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kager, W.; Nienhuis, B.

2006-01-01

We study a special case of the Brauer model in which every path of the model has weight q = 1. The model has been studied before as a solvable lattice model and can be viewed as a Lorentz lattice gas. The paths of the model are also called self-avoiding trails. We consider the model in a triangle

A study on the intrusion model by physical modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jung Yul; Kim, Yoo Sung; Hyun, Hye Ja [Korea Inst. of Geology Mining and Materials, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-12-01

In physical modeling, the actual phenomena of seismic wave propagation are directly measured like field survey and furthermore the structure and physical properties of subsurface can be known. So the measured datasets from physical modeling can be very desirable as input data to test the efficiency of various inversion algorithms. An underground structure formed by intrusion, which can be often seen in seismic section for oil exploration, is investigated by physical modeling. The model is characterized by various types of layer boundaries with steep dip angle. Therefore, this physical modeling data are very available not only to interpret seismic sections for oil exploration as a case history, but also to develop data processing techniques and estimate the capability of software such as migration, full waveform inversion. (author). 5 refs., 18 figs.

Implementation and validation of the condensation model for containment hydrogen distribution studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravva, Srinivasa Rao; Iyer, Kannan N.; Gupta, S.K.; Gaikwad, Avinash J.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A condensation model based on diffusion was implemented in FLUENT. • Validation of a condensation model for the H 2 distribution studies was performed. • Multi-component diffusion is used in the present work. • Appropriate grid and turbulence model were identified. - Abstract: This paper aims at the implementation details of a condensation model in the CFD code FLUENT and its validation so that it can be used in performing the containment hydrogen distribution studies. In such studies, computational fluid dynamics simulations are necessary for obtaining accurate predictions. While steam condensation plays an important role, commercial CFD codes such as FLUENT do not have an in-built condensation model. Therefore, a condensation model was developed and implemented in the FLUENT code through user defined functions (UDFs) for the sink terms in the mass, momentum, energy and species balance equations together with associated turbulence quantities viz., kinetic energy and dissipation rate. The implemented model was validated against the ISP-47 test of TOSQAN facility using the standard wall functions and enhanced wall treatment approaches. The best suitable grid size and the turbulence model for the low density gas (He) distribution studies are brought out in this paper

Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

Science.gov (United States)

Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

External Validation Study of First Trimester Obstetric Prediction Models (Expect Study I): Research Protocol and Population Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Meertens, Linda Jacqueline Elisabeth; Scheepers, Hubertina Cj; De Vries, Raymond G; Dirksen, Carmen D; Korstjens, Irene; Mulder, Antonius Lm; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne J; Nijhuis, Jan G; Spaanderman, Marc Ea; Smits, Luc Jm

2017-10-26

A number of first-trimester prediction models addressing important obstetric outcomes have been published. However, most models have not been externally validated. External validation is essential before implementing a prediction model in clinical practice. The objective of this paper is to describe the design of a study to externally validate existing first trimester obstetric prediction models, based upon maternal characteristics and standard measurements (eg, blood pressure), for the risk of pre-eclampsia (PE), gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), spontaneous preterm birth (PTB), small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants among Dutch pregnant women (Expect Study I). The results of a pilot study on the feasibility and acceptability of the recruitment process and the comprehensibility of the Pregnancy Questionnaire 1 are also reported. A multicenter prospective cohort study was performed in The Netherlands between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015. First trimester obstetric prediction models were systematically selected from the literature. Predictor variables were measured by the Web-based Pregnancy Questionnaire 1 and pregnancy outcomes were established using the Postpartum Questionnaire 1 and medical records. Information about maternal health-related quality of life, costs, and satisfaction with Dutch obstetric care was collected from a subsample of women. A pilot study was carried out before the official start of inclusion. External validity of the models will be evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. Based on the pilot study, minor improvements were made to the recruitment process and online Pregnancy Questionnaire 1. The validation cohort consists of 2614 women. Data analysis of the external validation study is in progress. This study will offer insight into the generalizability of existing, non-invasive first trimester prediction models for various obstetric outcomes in a Dutch obstetric population

Do GIS-derived measures of fast food retailers convey perceived fast food opportunities? Implications for food environment assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Timothy L.; Colabianchi, Natalie; Freedman, Darcy A.; Bell, Bethany A.; Liese, Angela D.

2018-01-01

Purpose Geographic information systems (GISs) have been used to define fast food availability, with higher availability perhaps promoting poorer quality diets. Alternative measures involve perceptions; however, few studies have examined associations between GIS-derived and perceived measures of the food environment. Methods Telephone surveys of 705 participants within an eight-county region in South Carolina were analyzed using logistic regression to examine relationships between geographic presence of and distance to various types of food retailers and perceived fast food availability. Results The mean distance to the nearest fast food restaurant was 6.1 miles, with 16% of participants having a fast food restaurant within 1 mile of home. The geographic presence of and distance to all food retailer types were significantly associated with perceived availability of fast food in unadjusted models. After adjustment, only the presence of a fast food restaurant or pharmacy was significantly associated with greater odds of higher perceived availability of fast food. Greater odds of lower perceived availability of fast food were observed with the presence of a dollar store and increasing distance to the nearest supermarket or pharmacy. Conclusions Measures of fast food availability, whether objective or perceived, may not be interchangeable. Researchers should carefully decide on the appropriate measurement tool—GIS-derived or perceived—in food environment studies. PMID:27617371

Do GIS-derived measures of fast food retailers convey perceived fast food opportunities? Implications for food environment assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, Timothy L; Colabianchi, Natalie; Freedman, Darcy A; Bell, Bethany A; Liese, Angela D

2017-01-01

Geographic information systems (GISs) have been used to define fast food availability, with higher availability perhaps promoting poorer quality diets. Alternative measures involve perceptions; however, few studies have examined associations between GIS-derived and perceived measures of the food environment. Telephone surveys of 705 participants within an eight-county region in South Carolina were analyzed using logistic regression to examine relationships between geographic presence of and distance to various types of food retailers and perceived fast food availability. The mean distance to the nearest fast food restaurant was 6.1 miles, with 16% of participants having a fast food restaurant within 1 mile of home. The geographic presence of and distance to all food retailer types were significantly associated with perceived availability of fast food in unadjusted models. After adjustment, only the presence of a fast food restaurant or pharmacy was significantly associated with greater odds of higher perceived availability of fast food. Greater odds of lower perceived availability of fast food were observed with the presence of a dollar store and increasing distance to the nearest supermarket or pharmacy. Measures of fast food availability, whether objective or perceived, may not be interchangeable. Researchers should carefully decide on the appropriate measurement tool-GIS-derived or perceived-in food environment studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model study radioecology Biblis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1976-01-01

The first part of the study deals with questions concerning radiation on account of the release of radioactive substances into the environment via the aquatic pathway. The discussion is preceded by a lecture on the basis for the calculations, and on a lecture on the results of primary radiological model calculations. The colloquium aims at establishing existing knowledge, at coordinating deviating opinions, and at elaborating questions still open and the possibility to deal with these. On the whole, ten questions have emerged. They are mainly concerned with site conditions. These questions will be dealt with in the form of partial studies by individual participants or by task groups. The results will be discussed at further colloquia. (orig.) [de

Saltstone SDU6 Modeling Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Si Y.; Hyun, Sinjae

2013-01-01

A new disposal unit, designated as Saltstone Disposal Unit 6 (SDU6), is being designed for support of site accelerated closure goals and salt waste projections identified in the new Liquid Waste System Plan. The unit is a cylindrical disposal cell of 375 ft in diameter and 43 ft in height, and it has a minimum 30 million gallons of capacity. SRNL was requested to evaluate the impact of an increased grout placement height on the flow patterns radially spread on the floor and to determine whether grout quality is impacted by the height. The primary goals of the work are to develop the baseline Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model and to perform the evaluations for the flow patterns of grout material in SDU6 as a function of elevation of grout discharge port and grout rheology. Two transient grout models have been developed by taking a three-dimensional multiphase CFD approach to estimate the domain size of the grout materials radially spread on the facility floor and to perform the sensitivity analysis with respect to the baseline design and operating conditions such as elevation height of the discharge port and fresh grout properties. For the CFD modeling calculations, air-grout Volume of Fluid (VOF) method combined with Bingham plastic and time-dependent grout models were used for examining the impact of fluid spread performance for the initial baseline configurations and to evaluate the impact of grout pouring height on grout quality. The grout quality was estimated in terms of the air volume fraction for the grout layer formed on the SDU6 floor, resulting in the change of grout density. The study results should be considered as preliminary scoping analyses since benchmarking analysis is not included in this task scope. Transient analyses with the Bingham plastic model were performed with the FLUENTTM code on the high performance parallel computing platform in SRNL. The analysis coupled with a transient grout aging model was performed by using ANSYS-CFX code

Animal models for studying female genital tract infection with Chlamydia trachomatis.

Science.gov (United States)

De Clercq, Evelien; Kalmar, Isabelle; Vanrompay, Daisy

2013-09-01

Chlamydia trachomatis is a Gram-negative obligate intracellular bacterial pathogen. It is the leading cause of bacterial sexually transmitted disease in the world, with more than 100 million new cases of genital tract infections with C. trachomatis occurring each year. Animal models are indispensable for the study of C. trachomatis infections and the development and evaluation of candidate vaccines. In this paper, the most commonly used animal models to study female genital tract infections with C. trachomatis will be reviewed, namely, the mouse, guinea pig, and nonhuman primate models. Additionally, we will focus on the more recently developed pig model.

Benthic boundary layer modelling studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richards, K.J.

1984-01-01

A numerical model has been developed to study the factors which control the height of the benthic boundary layer in the deep ocean and the dispersion of a tracer within and directly above the layer. This report covers tracer clouds of horizontal scales of 10 to 100 km. The dispersion of a tracer has been studied in two ways. Firstly, a number of particles have been introduced into the flow. The trajectories of these particles provide information on dispersion rates. For flow conditions similar to those observed in the abyssal N.E. Atlantic the diffusivity of a tracer was found to be 5 x 10 6 cm 2 s -1 for a tracer within the boundary layer and 8 x 10 6 cm 2 s -1 for a tracer above the boundary layer. The results are in accord with estimates made from current meter measurements. The second method of studying dispersion was to calculate the evolution of individual tracer clouds. Clouds within and above the benthic boundary layer often show quite different behaviour from each other although the general structure of the clouds in the two regions were found to have no significant differences. (author)

Construction of a biodynamic model for Cry protein production studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro-Mtz, Ana Karin; Pérez-Guevara, Fermín

2014-12-01

Mathematical models have been used from growth kinetic simulation to gen regulatory networks prediction for B. thuringiensis culture. However, this culture is a time dependent dynamic process where cells physiology suffers several changes depending on the changes in the cell environment. Therefore, through its culture, B. thuringiensis presents three phases related with the predominance of three major metabolic pathways: vegetative growth (Embded-Meyerhof-Parnas pathway), transition (γ-aminobutiric cycle) and sporulation (tricarboxylic acid cycle). There is not available a mathematical model that relates the different stages of cultivation with the metabolic pathway active on each one of them. Therefore, in the present study, and based on published data, a biodynamic model was generated to describe the dynamic of the three different phases based on their major metabolic pathways. The biodynamic model is used to study the interrelation between the different culture phases and their relationship with the Cry protein production. The model consists of three interconnected modules where each module represents one culture phase and its principal metabolic pathway. For model validation four new fermentations were done showing that the model constructed describes reasonably well the dynamic of the three phases. The main results of this model imply that poly-β-hydroxybutyrate is crucial for endospore and Cry protein production. According to the yields of dipicolinic acid and Cry from poly-β-hydroxybutyrate, calculated with the model, the endospore and Cry protein production are not just simultaneous and parallel processes they are also competitive processes.

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

Wind Turbine and Wind Power Plant Modelling Aspects for Power System Stability Studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Göksu, Ömer

2014-01-01

Large amount of wind power installations introduce modeling challenges for power system operators at both the planning and operational stages of power systems. Depending on the scope of the study, the modeling details of the wind turbine or the wind power plant are required to be different. A wind...... turbine model which is developed for the short-term voltage stability studies can be inaccurate and sufficient for the frequency stability studies. Accordingly, a complete and detailed wind power plant model for every kind of study is not feasible in terms of the computational time and also...... and wind power plants are reviewed for power system stability studies. Important remarks of the models are presented by means of simulations to emphasize the impact of these modelling details on the power system....

Overview of the reactor safety study consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wall, I.B.; Yaniv, S.S.; Blond, R.M.; McGrath, P.E.; Church, H.W.; Wayland, J.R.

1977-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) is a comprehensive assessment of the potential risk to the public from accidents in light water power reactors. The engineering analysis of the plants is described in detail in the Reactor Safety Study: it provides an estimate of the probability versus magnitude of the release of radioactive material. The consequence model, which is the subject of this paper, describes the progression of the postulated accident after the release of the radioactive material from the containment. A brief discussion of the manner in which the consequence calculations are performed is presented. The emphasis in the description is on the models and data that differ significantly from those previously used for these types of assessments. The results of the risk calculations for 100 light water power reactors are summarized

Complete wind farm electromagnetic transient modelling for grid integration studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zubia, I.; Ostolaza, X.; Susperregui, A.; Tapia, G.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a modelling methodology to analyse the impact of wind farms in surrounding networks. Based on the transient modelling of the asynchronous generator, the multi-machine model of a wind farm composed of N generators is developed. The model incorporates step-up power transformers, distribution lines and surrounding loads up to their connection to the power network. This model allows the simulation of symmetric and asymmetric short-circuits located in the distribution network and the analysis of transient stability of wind farms. It can be also used to study the islanding operation of wind farms

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A case study to estimate costs using Neural Networks and regression based models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadia Bhuiyan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Bombardier Aerospace’s high performance aircrafts and services set the utmost standard for the Aerospace industry. A case study in collaboration with Bombardier Aerospace is conducted in order to estimate the target cost of a landing gear. More precisely, the study uses both parametric model and neural network models to estimate the cost of main landing gears, a major aircraft commodity. A comparative analysis between the parametric based model and those upon neural networks model will be considered in order to determine the most accurate method to predict the cost of a main landing gear. Several trials are presented for the design and use of the neural network model. The analysis for the case under study shows the flexibility in the design of the neural network model. Furthermore, the performance of the neural network model is deemed superior to the parametric models for this case study.

Simulation study of a rectifying bipolar ion channel: Detailed model versus reduced model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Ható

2016-02-01

Full Text Available We study a rectifying mutant of the OmpF porin ion channel using both all-atom and reduced models. The mutant was created by Miedema et al. [Nano Lett., 2007, 7, 2886] on the basis of the NP semiconductor diode, in which an NP junction is formed. The mutant contains a pore region with positive amino acids on the left-hand side and negative amino acids on the right-hand side. Experiments show that this mutant rectifies. Although we do not know the structure of this mutant, we can build an all-atom model for it on the basis of the structure of the wild type channel. Interestingly, molecular dynamics simulations for this all-atom model do not produce rectification. A reduced model that contains only the important degrees of freedom (the positive and negative amino acids and free ions in an implicit solvent, on the other hand, exhibits rectification. Our calculations for the reduced model (using the Nernst-Planck equation coupled to Local Equilibrium Monte Carlo simulations reveal a rectification mechanism that is different from that seen for semiconductor diodes. The basic reason is that the ions are different in nature from electrons and holes (they do not recombine. We provide explanations for the failure of the all-atom model including the effect of all the other atoms in the system as a noise that inhibits the response of ions (that would be necessary for rectification to the polarizing external field.

A piecewise modeling approach for climate sensitivity studies: Tests with a shallow-water model

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Aimei; Qiu, Chongjian; Niu, Guo-Yue

2015-10-01

In model-based climate sensitivity studies, model errors may grow during continuous long-term integrations in both the "reference" and "perturbed" states and hence the climate sensitivity (defined as the difference between the two states). To reduce the errors, we propose a piecewise modeling approach that splits the continuous long-term simulation into subintervals of sequential short-term simulations, and updates the modeled states through re-initialization at the end of each subinterval. In the re-initialization processes, this approach updates the reference state with analysis data and updates the perturbed states with the sum of analysis data and the difference between the perturbed and the reference states, thereby improving the credibility of the modeled climate sensitivity. We conducted a series of experiments with a shallow-water model to evaluate the advantages of the piecewise approach over the conventional continuous modeling approach. We then investigated the impacts of analysis data error and subinterval length used in the piecewise approach on the simulations of the reference and perturbed states as well as the resulting climate sensitivity. The experiments show that the piecewise approach reduces the errors produced by the conventional continuous modeling approach, more effectively when the analysis data error becomes smaller and the subinterval length is shorter. In addition, we employed a nudging assimilation technique to solve possible spin-up problems caused by re-initializations by using analysis data that contain inconsistent errors between mass and velocity. The nudging technique can effectively diminish the spin-up problem, resulting in a higher modeling skill.

Improving the accessibility and re-use of environmental models through provision of model metadata - a scoping study

Science.gov (United States)

Riddick, Andrew; Hughes, Andrew; Harpham, Quillon; Royse, Katherine; Singh, Anubha

2014-05-01

There has been an increasing interest both from academic and commercial organisations over recent years in developing hydrologic and other environmental models in response to some of the major challenges facing the environment, for example environmental change and its effects and ensuring water resource security. This has resulted in a significant investment in modelling by many organisations both in terms of financial resources and intellectual capital. To capitalise on the effort on producing models, then it is necessary for the models to be both discoverable and appropriately described. If this is not undertaken then the effort in producing the models will be wasted. However, whilst there are some recognised metadata standards relating to datasets these may not completely address the needs of modellers regarding input data for example. Also there appears to be a lack of metadata schemes configured to encourage the discovery and re-use of the models themselves. The lack of an established standard for model metadata is considered to be a factor inhibiting the more widespread use of environmental models particularly the use of linked model compositions which fuse together hydrologic models with models from other environmental disciplines. This poster presents the results of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funded scoping study to understand the requirements of modellers and other end users for metadata about data and models. A user consultation exercise using an on-line questionnaire has been undertaken to capture the views of a wide spectrum of stakeholders on how they are currently managing metadata for modelling. This has provided a strong confirmation of our original supposition that there is a lack of systems and facilities to capture metadata about models. A number of specific gaps in current provision for data and model metadata were also identified, including a need for a standard means to record detailed information about the modelling

Three-Dimensional Model Test Study of a CUBIPOD Armoured Roundhead

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, Hans F.; Andersen, Thomas Lykke; Aldama, J. M. Urrutia

‐crested wave tests were performed as well. One objective of the tests was to compare the stability of CUBIPOD armoured roundheads to the stability of cube armoured roundheads. This could be done by choosing a model test setup identical to that previous used in a study of the stability of a cube armoured......The present report presents results from a three‐dimensional model test study carried out at Aalborg University in the period September 2008 - December 2008. The model tests were carried out to study the stability of a CUBIPOD armoured roundhead under short‐crested wave attack. Few long...... roundhead for the Punta Langosteira breakwater at La Coruna. To have a direct comparison some of the new test series were reproduced with cubes also. This was done with identical steering signals send to the paddles....

Parametric study for horizontal steam generator modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ovtcharova, I. [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

1995-12-31

In the presentation some of the calculated results of horizontal steam generator PGV - 440 modelling with RELAP5/Mod3 are described. Two nodalization schemes have been used with different components in the steam dome. A study of parameters variation on the steam generator work and calculated results is made in cases with separator and branch.

Parametric study for horizontal steam generator modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ovtcharova, I [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)

1996-12-31

In the presentation some of the calculated results of horizontal steam generator PGV - 440 modelling with RELAP5/Mod3 are described. Two nodalization schemes have been used with different components in the steam dome. A study of parameters variation on the steam generator work and calculated results is made in cases with separator and branch.

Evaluation of unsaturated-zone solute-transport models for studies of agricultural chemicals

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Bernard T.; Bayless, E. Randall; Green, Christopher T.; Garg, Sheena; Voss, Frank D.; Lampe, David C.; Barbash, Jack E.; Capel, Paul D.; Bekins, Barbara A.

2005-01-01

Seven unsaturated-zone solute-transport models were tested with two data sets to select models for use by the Agricultural Chemical Team of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The data sets were from a bromide tracer test near Merced, California, and an atrazine study in the White River Basin, Indiana. In this study the models are designated either as complex or simple based on the water flux algorithm. The complex models, HYDRUS2D, LEACHP, RZWQM, and VS2DT, use Richards' equation to simulate water flux and are well suited to process understanding. The simple models, CALF, GLEAMS, and PRZM, use a tipping-bucket algorithm and are more amenable to extrapolation because they require fewer input parameters. The purpose of this report is not to endorse a particular model, but to describe useful features, potential capabilities, and possible limitations that emerged from working with the model input data sets. More rigorous assessment of model applicability involves proper calibration, which was beyond the scope of this study.

Drift Scale Modeling: Study of Unsaturated Flow into a Drift Using a Stochastic Continuum Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birkholzer, J.T.; Tsang, C.F.; Tsang, Y.W.; Wang, J.S

1996-01-01

Unsaturated flow in heterogeneous fractured porous rock was simulated using a stochastic continuum model (SCM). In this model, both the more conductive fractures and the less permeable matrix are generated within the framework of a single continuum stochastic approach, based on non-parametric indicator statistics. High-permeable fracture zones are distinguished from low-permeable matrix zones in that they have assigned a long range correlation structure in prescribed directions. The SCM was applied to study small-scale flow in the vicinity of an access tunnel, which is currently being drilled in the unsaturated fractured tuff formations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Extensive underground testing is underway in this tunnel to investigate the suitability of Yucca Mountain as an underground nuclear waste repository. Different flow scenarios were studied in the present paper, considering the flow conditions before and after the tunnel emplacement, and assuming steady-state net infiltration as well as episodic pulse infiltration. Although the capability of the stochastic continuum model has not yet been fully explored, it has been demonstrated that the SCM is a good alternative model feasible of describing heterogeneous flow processes in unsaturated fractured tuff at Yucca Mountain

A case study of consensus modelling for tracking oil spills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Brian; Brushett, Ben; Lemckert, Charles

2010-01-01

Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to marine incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the likely drift pattern and the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast models and two wind forecast models currently used operationally in the Australia and Asia Pacific region. The availability of several different forecast models provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different model and determining whether there is consensus in the results. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the Montara well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling.

Experimental study and modelling of transient boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baudin, Nicolas

2015-01-01

A failure in the control system of the power of a nuclear reactor can lead to a Reactivity Initiated Accident in a nuclear power plant. Then, a power peak occurs in some fuel rods, high enough to lead to the coolant film boiling. It leads to an important increase of the temperature of the rod. The possible risk of the clad failure is a matter of interest for the Institut de Radioprotection et de Securite Nucleaire. The transient boiling heat transfer is not yet understood and modelled. An experimental set-up has been built at the Institut de Mecanique des Fluides de Toulouse (IMFT). Subcooled HFE-7000 flows vertically upward in a semi annulus test section. The inner half cylinder simulates the clad and is made of a stainless steel foil, heated by Joule effect. Its temperature is measured by an infrared camera, coupled with a high speed camera for the visualization of the flow topology. The whole boiling curve is studied in steady state and transient regimes: convection, onset of boiling, nucleate boiling, critical heat flux, film boiling and rewetting. The steady state heat transfers are well modelled by literature correlations. Models are suggested for the transient heat flux: the convection and nucleate boiling evolutions are self-similar during a power step. This observation allows to model more complex evolutions, as temperature ramps. The transient Hsu model well represents the onset of nucleate boiling. When the intensity of the power step increases, the film boiling begins at the same temperature but with an increasing heat flux. For power ramps, the critical heat flux decreases while the corresponding temperature increases with the heating rate. When the wall is heated, the film boiling heat transfer is higher than in steady state but it is not understood. A two-fluid model well simulates the cooling film boiling and the rewetting. (author)

Tidal eddies in a semi-enclosed basin: A model study

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Vethamony, P.; Reddy, G.S.; Babu, M.T.; Desa, E.; Sudheesh, K.

A modeling study has been carried out to support a Marine Management Plan for the Gulf of Kachchh, India and here the hydrodynamic part of the programme is described. The hydrodynamic model accurately predicts the tides and tidal currents present...

Experience in Modelling Nuclear Energy Systems with MESSAGE: Country Case Studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2018-01-01

Member States have recognized the increasing need to model future nuclear power scenarios in order to develop strategies for sustainable nuclear energy systems. The IAEA model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impacts (MESSAGE) code is a tool that supports energy analysis and planning in Member States. This publication documents the experience gained on modelling and scenario analysis of nuclear energy systems (NES) using the MESSAGE code through various case studies performed by the participating Member States on evaluation and planning for nuclear energy sustainability at the regional or national level. The publication also elaborates on experience gained in modelling of global nuclear energy systems with a focus on specific aspects of collaboration among technology holder and technology user countries and the introduction of innovative nuclear technologies. It presents country case studies covering a variety of nuclear energy systems based on a once-through fuel cycle and a closed fuel cycle for thermal reactors, fast reactors and advanced systems. The feedback from case studies proves the analytical capabilities of the MESSAGE model and highlight the path forward for further advancements in the MESSAGE code and NES modelling.

Recent technological advances in using mouse models to study ovarian cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

House, Carrie Danielle; Hernandez, Lidia; Annunziata, Christina Messineo

2014-01-01

Serous epithelial ovarian cancer (SEOC) is the most lethal gynecological cancer in the United States with disease recurrence being the major cause of morbidity and mortality. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the molecular mechanisms responsible for the development of SEOC, the survival rate for women with this disease has remained relatively unchanged in the last two decades. Preclinical mouse models of ovarian cancer, including xenograft, syngeneic, and genetically engineered mice, have been developed to provide a mechanism for studying the development and progression of SEOC. Such models strive to increase our understanding of the etiology and dissemination of ovarian cancer in order to overcome barriers to early detection and resistance to standard chemotherapy. Although there is not a single model that is most suitable for studying ovarian cancer, improvements have led to current models that more closely mimic human disease in their genotype and phenotype. Other advances in the field, such as live animal imaging techniques, allow effective monitoring of the microenvironment and therapeutic efficacy. New and improved preclinical mouse models, combined with technological advances to study such models, will undoubtedly render success of future human clinical trials for patients with SEOC.

A Simple Model to Study Tau Pathology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander L. Houck

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Tau proteins play a role in the stabilization of microtubules, but in pathological conditions, tauopathies, tau is modified by phosphorylation and can aggregate into aberrant aggregates. These aggregates could be toxic to cells, and different cell models have been used to test for compounds that might prevent these tau modifications. Here, we have used a cell model involving the overexpression of human tau in human embryonic kidney 293 cells. In human embryonic kidney 293 cells expressing tau in a stable manner, we have been able to replicate the phosphorylation of intracellular tau. This intracellular tau increases its own level of phosphorylation and aggregates, likely due to the regulatory effect of some growth factors on specific tau kinases such as GSK3. In these conditions, a change in secreted tau was observed. Reversal of phosphorylation and aggregation of tau was found by the use of lithium, a GSK3 inhibitor. Thus, we propose this as a simple cell model to study tau pathology in nonneuronal cells due to their viability and ease to work with.

Study of the properties of general relativistic Kink model (GRK)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, L.C.S. de.

1980-01-01

The stability of the general relativistic Kink model (GRK) is studied. It is shown that the model is stable at least against radial perturbations. Furthermore, the Dirac field in the background of the geometry generated by the GRK is studied. It is verified that the GRK localizes the Dirac field, around the region of largest curvature. The physical interpretation of this system (the Dirac field in the GRK background) is discussed. (Author) [pt

Holes in the t-Jz model: A diagrammatic study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernyshev, A.L.; Leung, P.W.

1999-01-01

The t-J z model is the strongly anisotropic limit of the t-J model which captures some general properties of doped antiferromagnets (AF close-quote s). The absence of spin fluctuations simplifies the analytical treatment of hole motion in an AF background, and allows us to calculate single- and two-hole spectra with a high accuracy using a regular diagram technique combined with a real-space approach. At the same time, numerical studies of this model via exact diagonalization on small clusters show negligible finite-size effects for a number of quantities, thus allowing a direct comparison between analytical and numerical results. Both approaches demonstrate that the holes have a tendency to pair in p- and d-wave channels at realistic values of t/J. Interactions leading to pairing and effects selecting p and d waves are thoroughly investigated. The role of transverse spin fluctuations is considered using perturbation theory. Based on the results of the present study, we discuss the pairing problem in the realistic t-J-like model. Possible implications for preformed pairs formation and phase separation are drawn. copyright 1999 The American Physical Society

Premium analysis for copula model: A case study for Malaysian motor insurance claims

Science.gov (United States)

Resti, Yulia; Ismail, Noriszura; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah

2014-06-01

This study performs premium analysis for copula models with regression marginals. For illustration purpose, the copula models are fitted to the Malaysian motor insurance claims data. In this study, we consider copula models from Archimedean and Elliptical families, and marginal distributions of Gamma and Inverse Gaussian regression models. The simulated results from independent model, which is obtained from fitting regression models separately to each claim category, and dependent model, which is obtained from fitting copula models to all claim categories, are compared. The results show that the dependent model using Frank copula is the best model since the risk premiums estimated under this model are closely approximate to the actual claims experience relative to the other copula models.

Simulation model for studying low frequency microinstabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, W.W.; Okuda, H.

1976-03-01

A 2 1 / 2 dimensional, electrostatic particle code in a slab geometry has been developed to study low frequency oscillations such as drift wave and trapped particle instabilities in a nonuniform bounded plasma. A drift approximation for the electron transverse motion is made which eliminates the high frequency oscillations at the electron gyrofrequency and its multiples. It is, therefore, possible to study the nonlinear effects such as the anomalous transport of plasmas within a reasonable computing time using a real mass ratio. Several examples are given to check the validity and usefulness of the model

Study on high-level waste geological disposal metadata model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Xiaobin; Wang Changhong; Zhu Hehua; Li Xiaojun

2008-01-01

This paper expatiated the concept of metadata and its researches within china and abroad, then explain why start the study on the metadata model of high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project. As reference to GML, the author first set up DML under the framework of digital underground space engineering. Based on DML, a standardized metadata employed in high-level nuclear waste deep geological disposal project is presented. Then, a Metadata Model with the utilization of internet is put forward. With the standardized data and CSW services, this model may solve the problem in the data sharing and exchanging of different data form A metadata editor is build up in order to search and maintain metadata based on this model. (authors)

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.; Fessler, J.A.; Hero, A.O.

1994-01-01

In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed

Role model identification by medical radiation science practitioners - a pilot study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, S.J.; Robinson, J.W.

2003-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this study was to address the paucity of research in role modeling and to develop a greater understanding of role modeling within the occupations of diagnostic radiography and radiation therapy. It can be postulated that the shaping of professional growth may rest with the behavioural models accepted by the workplace or the individuals themselves; thus, role modeling is a vital ingredient in professionalization. The benefits of this research are to advance the attainment of professional development and awareness by diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists through the processes of identification, classification and construction of generic role models. Method: A study was conducted with eight target centres representing diagnostic and therapy workplaces. The centres ranged from large teaching hospitals to small community hospitals with the inclusion of two large private practices; and geographically, these centres were all located within the Sydney Area Health Services. The research methodology consisted of a structured interview and a short written task. A hierarchical percentage of participants, ranging from chief/manager, senior/charge, junior to recently graduated diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists were invited to participate in the study. Results and discussion: The results indicated that the generic role models were established for both diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists despite their varying clinical roles. Also similar was the participants' identification of attributes while viewing themselves as suitable role models. The selection of choice of workplace role model was different for the two occupations. Interestingly, the results indicate a mismatch between the ideal characteristic composition of a role model and the self-perception of the participants as professional role models on the subject of ethical conduct

Role model identification by medical radiation science practitioners - a pilot study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewis, S.J. E-mail: s.lewis@cchs.usyd.edu.au; Robinson, J.W

2003-02-01

Purpose: The objective of this study was to address the paucity of research in role modeling and to develop a greater understanding of role modeling within the occupations of diagnostic radiography and radiation therapy. It can be postulated that the shaping of professional growth may rest with the behavioural models accepted by the workplace or the individuals themselves; thus, role modeling is a vital ingredient in professionalization. The benefits of this research are to advance the attainment of professional development and awareness by diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists through the processes of identification, classification and construction of generic role models. Method: A study was conducted with eight target centres representing diagnostic and therapy workplaces. The centres ranged from large teaching hospitals to small community hospitals with the inclusion of two large private practices; and geographically, these centres were all located within the Sydney Area Health Services. The research methodology consisted of a structured interview and a short written task. A hierarchical percentage of participants, ranging from chief/manager, senior/charge, junior to recently graduated diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists were invited to participate in the study. Results and discussion: The results indicated that the generic role models were established for both diagnostic radiographers and radiation therapists despite their varying clinical roles. Also similar was the participants' identification of attributes while viewing themselves as suitable role models. The selection of choice of workplace role model was different for the two occupations. Interestingly, the results indicate a mismatch between the ideal characteristic composition of a role model and the self-perception of the participants as professional role models on the subject of ethical conduct.

The electro-thermal-mechanical performance of an OLED : a multi-physics model study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gielen, A.W.J.; Barink, M.; Brand, J. van de; Mol, A.M.B. van

2009-01-01

In order to study the electrical-thermo-mechanical interaction in OLEDs, finite element based simulation models were developed. Two dimensional models were used to study detailed design effects, such as the location of the bus bars, while a three dimensional model was used to study the effect of

An Evaluation of iMetric Studies through the Scholarly Influence Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faramarz Soheili

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Among the topics studied in the context of scientometrics, the issue of the scholarly influence is of special interest. This study tries to test the components in the scholarly influence model based on iMetrics studies, and also to find potential relations among these components. The study uses a bibliometric methodology. Since the researchers aim to determine the relationship between variables, this research is of correlation type. The initial data of this study, which comprises 5944 records in the field of iMetrics during 1978-2014, have been retrieved from Web of Science. To calculate the most of measures involved in each kind of influence, the researchers used UCINet and BibExcel software moreover, some indices have been calculated manually using Excel. After calculating all measures included in three types of influence, the researchers used the Smart PLS to test both the model and research hypotheses. The results of data analysis using the software Smart PLS confirmed the scholarly influence model and indicated significant correlation between the variables in the model. To be more precise, findings uncovered that social influence is associated with both ideational and venue influence. Moreover, the venue influence is associated with ideational influence. If researchers test the scholarly influence model in some other areas and led to positive outcomes, it is hoped that the policy-makers use a combination of variables involved in the model as a measure to evaluate the scholarly influence of researchers and to decision-makings related to purposes such as promotion, recruitment, and so on.

Space engineering modeling and optimization with case studies

CERN Document Server

Pintér, János

2016-01-01

This book presents a selection of advanced case studies that cover a substantial range of issues and real-world challenges and applications in space engineering. Vital mathematical modeling, optimization methodologies and numerical solution aspects of each application case study are presented in detail, with discussions of a range of advanced model development and solution techniques and tools. Space engineering challenges are discussed in the following contexts: •Advanced Space Vehicle Design •Computation of Optimal Low Thrust Transfers •Indirect Optimization of Spacecraft Trajectories •Resource-Constrained Scheduling, •Packing Problems in Space •Design of Complex Interplanetary Trajectories •Satellite Constellation Image Acquisition •Re-entry Test Vehicle Configuration Selection •Collision Risk Assessment on Perturbed Orbits •Optimal Robust Design of Hybrid Rocket Engines •Nonlinear Regression Analysis in Space Engineering< •Regression-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Robust Design ...

A study of multidimensional modeling approaches for data warehouse

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Sharmila Mat; Sidi, Fatimah; Ibrahim, Hamidah; Affendey, Lilly Suriani

2016-08-01

Data warehouse system is used to support the process of organizational decision making. Hence, the system must extract and integrate information from heterogeneous data sources in order to uncover relevant knowledge suitable for decision making process. However, the development of data warehouse is a difficult and complex process especially in its conceptual design (multidimensional modeling). Thus, there have been various approaches proposed to overcome the difficulty. This study surveys and compares the approaches of multidimensional modeling and highlights the issues, trend and solution proposed to date. The contribution is on the state of the art of the multidimensional modeling design.

Bias-Correction in Vector Autoregressive Models: A Simulation Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Engsted

2014-03-01

Full Text Available We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find that it compares very favorably in non-stationary models.

MODELING SIMULATION AND PERFORMANCE STUDY OF GRIDCONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY SYSTEM

OpenAIRE

Nagendra K; Karthik J; Keerthi Rao C; Kumar Raja Pemmadi

2017-01-01

This paper presents Modeling Simulation of grid connected Photovoltaic Energy System and performance study using MATLAB/Simulink. The Photovoltaic energy system is considered in three main parts PV Model, Power conditioning System and Grid interface. The Photovoltaic Model is inter-connected with grid through full scale power electronic devices. The simulation is conducted on the PV energy system at normal temperature and at constant load by using MATLAB.

Regional modelling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: WRF-Chem-PAH model development and East Asia case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Mu, Qing; Lammel, Gerhard; Gencarelli, Christian N.; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Chen, Ying; Přibylová, Petra; Teich, Monique; Zhang, Yuxuan; Zheng, Guangjie; van Pinxteren, Dominik; Zhang, Qiang; Herrmann, Hartmut; Shiraiwa, Manabu; Spichtinger, Peter; Su, Hang; Pöschl, Ulrich; Cheng, Yafang

2017-10-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous pollutants, with increasing emissions in pace with economic development in East Asia, but their distribution and fate in the atmosphere are not yet well understood. We extended the regional atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model with Chemistry module) to comprehensively study the atmospheric distribution and the fate of low-concentration, slowly degrading semivolatile compounds. The WRF-Chem-PAH model reflects the state-of-the-art understanding of current PAHs studies with several new or updated features. It was applied for PAHs covering a wide range of volatility and hydrophobicity, i.e. phenanthrene, chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene, in East Asia. Temporally highly resolved PAH concentrations and particulate mass fractions were evaluated against observations. The WRF-Chem-PAH model is able to reasonably well simulate the concentration levels and particulate mass fractions of PAHs near the sources and at a remote outflow region of East Asia, in high spatial and temporal resolutions. Sensitivity study shows that the heterogeneous reaction with ozone and the homogeneous reaction with the nitrate radical significantly influence the fate and distributions of PAHs. The methods to implement new species and to correct the transport problems can be applied to other newly implemented species in WRF-Chem.

Studying the Aspects of Knowledge Creation in the LAB Studio Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kari-Pekka Heikkinen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The organisations of higher education are constantly changing. Universities, colleges, private schools and online universities refine their pedagogical methods and learning models in a competitive market. This article is a study on whether one such model helps students to gain new knowledge. A study of the LAB studio model (LSM, which is a pedagogical model developing connections between working-life based problems and the recognition and development of business-related prototypes and start-up companies, is presented. The LSM, theoretically grounded in a constructivist view of learning with a project-based education at its core, has the key goal of educating entrepreneurial competences in higher education. Based on the case study, comprisinga literature review of knowledge creation and a survey, the qualitative results analysis suggests that LSM offers a promising support for knowledge creation. The results lead to the conclusion that LSM provides support especially for the various modes of the SECI model, such as socialisation and internalisation, and seems to support organisational knowledge creation aspects as well.

Reviewing Instructional Studies Conducted Using Video Modeling to Children with Autism

Science.gov (United States)

Acar, Cimen; Diken, Ibrahim H.

2012-01-01

This study explored 31 instructional research articles written using video modeling to children with autism and published in peer-reviewed journals. The studies in this research have been reached by searching EBSCO, Academic Search Complete, ERIC and other Anadolu University online search engines and using keywords such as "autism, video modeling,…

Comparative study of boron transport models in NRC Thermal-Hydraulic Code Trace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olmo-Juan, Nicolás; Barrachina, Teresa; Miró, Rafael; Verdú, Gumersindo; Pereira, Claubia, E-mail: nioljua@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: tbarrachina@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: rmiro@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: gverdu@iqn.upv.es, E-mail: claubia@nuclear.ufmg.br [Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety (ISIRYM). Universitat Politècnica de València (Spain); Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear

2017-07-01

Recently, the interest in the study of various types of transients involving changes in the boron concentration inside the reactor, has led to an increase in the interest of developing and studying new models and tools that allow a correct study of boron transport. Therefore, a significant variety of different boron transport models and spatial difference schemes are available in the thermal-hydraulic codes, as TRACE. According to this interest, in this work it will be compared the results obtained using the different boron transport models implemented in the NRC thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. To do this, a set of models have been created using the different options and configurations that could have influence in boron transport. These models allow to reproduce a simple event of filling or emptying the boron concentration in a long pipe. Moreover, with the aim to compare the differences obtained when one-dimensional or three-dimensional components are chosen, it has modeled many different cases using only pipe components or a mix of pipe and vessel components. In addition, the influence of the void fraction in the boron transport has been studied and compared under close conditions to BWR commercial model. A final collection of the different cases and boron transport models are compared between them and those corresponding to the analytical solution provided by the Burgers equation. From this comparison, important conclusions are drawn that will be the basis of modeling the boron transport in TRACE adequately. (author)

A study on dynamic model of steady-state visual evoked potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shangen; Han, Xu; Chen, Xiaogang; Wang, Yijun; Gao, Shangkai; Gao, Xiaorong

2018-04-04

Significant progress has been made in the past two decades to considerably improve the performance of steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based brain-computer interface (BCI). However, there are still some unsolved problems that may help us to improve BCI performance, one of which is that our understanding of the dynamic process of SSVEP is still superficial, especially for the transient-state response. This study introduced an antiphase stimulation method (antiphase: phase 0/π), which can simultaneously separate and extract SSVEP and event-related potential (ERP) signals from EEG, and eliminate the interference of ERP to SSVEP. Based on the SSVEP signals obtained by the antiphase stimulation method, the envelope of SSVEP was extracted by the Hilbert transform, and the dynamic model of SSVEP was quantitatively studied by mathematical modeling. The step response of a second-order linear system was used to fit the envelope of SSVEP, and its characteristics were represented by four parameters with physical and physiological meanings: one was amplitude related, one was latency related and two were frequency related. This study attempted to use pre-stimulation paradigms to modulate the dynamic model parameters, and quantitatively analyze the results by applying the dynamic model to further explore the pre-stimulation methods that had the potential to improve BCI performance. The results showed that the dynamic model had good fitting effect with SSVEP under three pre-stimulation paradigms. The test results revealed that the parameters of SSVEP dynamic models could be modulated by the pre-stimulation baseline luminance, and the gray baseline luminance pre-stimulation obtained the highest performance. This study proposed a dynamic model which was helpful to understand and utilize the transient characteristics of SSVEP. This study also found that pre-stimulation could be used to adjust the parameters of SSVEP model, and had the potential to improve the performance

Genome-wide association study of handedness excludes simple genetic models

Science.gov (United States)

Armour, J AL; Davison, A; McManus, I C

2014-01-01

Handedness is a human behavioural phenotype that appears to be congenital, and is often assumed to be inherited, but for which the developmental origin and underlying causation(s) have been elusive. Models of the genetic basis of variation in handedness have been proposed that fit different features of the observed resemblance between relatives, but none has been decisively tested or a corresponding causative locus identified. In this study, we applied data from well-characterised individuals studied at the London Twin Research Unit. Analysis of genome-wide SNP data from 3940 twins failed to identify any locus associated with handedness at a genome-wide level of significance. The most straightforward interpretation of our analyses is that they exclude the simplest formulations of the ‘right-shift' model of Annett and the ‘dextral/chance' model of McManus, although more complex modifications of those models are still compatible with our observations. For polygenic effects, our study is inadequately powered to reliably detect alleles with effect sizes corresponding to an odds ratio of 1.2, but should have good power to detect effects at an odds ratio of 2 or more. PMID:24065183

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T; Hänninen, Otto; Ruuskanen, Juhani; Jantunen, Matti J; Pekkanen, Juha

2007-08-23

The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5: a statistical modeling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jantunen Matti J

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5 are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure

Study of gap conductance model for thermo mechanical fully coupled finite element model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyo Cha; Yang, Yong Sik; Kim, Dae Ho; Bang, Je Geon; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun

2012-01-01

accurately, gap conductance model for thermomechanical fully coupled FE should be developed. However, gap conductance in FE can be difficult issue in terms of convergence because all elements which are positioned in gap have different gap conductance at each iteration step. It is clear that our code should have gap conductance model for thermo-mechanical fully coupled FE in three-dimension. In this paper, gap conductance model for thermomechanical coupled FE has been built using commercial FE code to understand gap conductance model in FE. We coded commercial FE code using APDL because it does not have iterative gap conductance model. Through model, convergence parameter and characteristics were studied

A study on the modeling techniques using LS-INGRID

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ku, J. H.; Park, S. W

2001-03-01

For the development of radioactive material transport packages, the verification of structural safety of a package against the free drop impact accident should be carried out. The use of LS-DYNA, which is specially developed code for impact analysis, is essential for impact analysis of the package. LS-INGRID is a pre-processor for LS-DYNA with considerable capability to deal with complex geometries and allows for parametric modeling. LS-INGRID is most effective in combination with LS-DYNA code. Although the usage of LS-INGRID seems very difficult relative to many commercial mesh generators, the productivity of users performing parametric modeling tasks with LS-INGRID can be much higher in some cases. Therefore, LS-INGRID has to be used with LS-DYNA. This report presents basic explanations for the structure and commands, basic modelling examples and advanced modelling of LS-INGRID to use it for the impact analysis of various packages. The new users can build the complex model easily, through a study for the basic examples presented in this report from the modelling to the loading and constraint conditions.