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Sample records for gis dynamic population

  1. The ArcSDE GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool for Savannah River Site Emergency Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MCLANE, TRACY; JONES, DWIGHT

    2005-01-01

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is a 310-square-mile Department of Energy site located near Aiken, South Carolina. With a workforce of over 10,000 employees and subcontractors, SRS emergency personnel must be able to respond to an emergency event in a timely and effective manner, in order to ensure the safety and security of the Site. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provides the technology needed to give managers and emergency personnel the information they need to make quick and effective decisions. In the event of a site evacuation, knowing the number of on-site personnel to evacuate from a given area is an essential piece of information for emergency staff. SRS has developed a GIS Dynamic Population Model Tool to quickly communicate real-time information that summarizes employee populations by facility area and building and then generates dynamic maps that illustrate output statistics

  2. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  3. Environmental factors governing population dynamics of rangeland grasshoppers: The first application of GIS and remote sensing to acridology in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latchininsky, Alexandre Vsevolodovich

    Grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae) are pests of rangeland and crops in temperate Eurasia (Siberia) where landscapes are dominated by short-grass vegetation and have many common features with the prairies of the Great Plains of North America. The zone of economic importance of grasshoppers in Siberia is localized in its southern part between 50° and 55°N and 68° and 132°E. In particular, grasshopper infestations are concentrated in close proximity to Lake Baikal, the world's deepest lake, holding one-fifth of the Earth's total fresh water supply. From a biodiversity perspective, Lake Baikal is unparalleled because >80% of its 1,085 plant and 1,550 animal species are endemic. Broad-scale pesticide applications in the zone close to the Baikal ecosystem can seriously aggravate the hazards of environmental pollution, with potentially catastrophic consequences on a vast scale. Specific composition and density of grasshopper communities were studied over a variety of habitats. Of about 50 local grasshopper species, two gomphocerines, Aeropus sibiricus and Chorthippus albomarginatus, dominated grasshopper communities in dry and mesic habitats, respectively. These species accounted for the most of the crop damage during recent outbreaks in the 1990s requiring large-scale insecticidal control. Annual fluctuations of grasshopper infestations appeared to track changes in air temperature and summer precipitation, but only a synthetic "Aridity index" was statistically significant. Spatial distribution of historic grasshopper infestations was studied using GIS (ERDAS IMAGINERTM) and remote sensing (Landsat TM satellite imagery) and was found to be significantly clumped. The highest grasshopper densities were associated with dry grasslands in transitional zones between foothills and valleys characterized by a particular elevation (600--650 m), soil type (sod-forest, or pararendzina), amount of April--October precipitation (250 mm) and degree of grazing (moderate

  4. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  5. Georeferenced Population Datasets of Mexico (GEO-MEX): Raster Based GIS Coverage of Mexican Population

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Raster Based GIS Coverage of Mexican Population is a gridded coverage (1 x 1 km) of Mexican population. The data were converted from vector into raster. The...

  6. Recommended GIS Analysis Methods for Global Gridded Population Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frye, C. E.; Sorichetta, A.; Rose, A.

    2017-12-01

    When using geographic information systems (GIS) to analyze gridded, i.e., raster, population data, analysts need a detailed understanding of several factors that affect raster data processing, and thus, the accuracy of the results. Global raster data is most often provided in an unprojected state, usually in the WGS 1984 geographic coordinate system. Most GIS functions and tools evaluate data based on overlay relationships (area) or proximity (distance). Area and distance for global raster data can be either calculated directly using the various earth ellipsoids or after transforming the data to equal-area/equidistant projected coordinate systems to analyze all locations equally. However, unlike when projecting vector data, not all projected coordinate systems can support such analyses equally, and the process of transforming raster data from one coordinate space to another often results unmanaged loss of data through a process called resampling. Resampling determines which values to use in the result dataset given an imperfect locational match in the input dataset(s). Cell size or resolution, registration, resampling method, statistical type, and whether the raster represents continuous or discreet information potentially influence the quality of the result. Gridded population data represent estimates of population in each raster cell, and this presentation will provide guidelines for accurately transforming population rasters for analysis in GIS. Resampling impacts the display of high resolution global gridded population data, and we will discuss how to properly handle pyramid creation using the Aggregate tool with the sum option to create overviews for mosaic datasets.

  7. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data

  8. Georeferenced Population Datasets of Mexico (GEO-MEX): GIS of Mexican States, Municipalities and Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — GIS of Mexican States, Municipalities and Islands consists of attribute and boundary data for 1990. The attribute data include population, language, education,...

  9. GIS-based poverty and population distribution analysis in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Wang, Yingjie; Yan, Hong

    2009-07-01

    Geographically, poverty status is not only related with social-economic factors but also strongly affected by geographical environment. In the paper, GIS-based poverty and population distribution analysis method is introduced for revealing their regional differences. More than 100000 poor villages and 592 national key poor counties are chosen for the analysis. The results show that poverty distribution tends to concentrate in most of west China and mountainous rural areas of mid China. Furthermore, the fifth census data are overlaid to those poor areas in order to gain its internal diversity of social-economic characteristics. By overlaying poverty related social-economic parameters, such as sex ratio, illiteracy, education level, percentage of ethnic minorities, family composition, finding shows that poverty distribution is strongly correlated with high illiteracy rate, high percentage minorities, and larger family member.

  10. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  11. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  12. Regional Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    The population dynamics of the southern pine beetle (SPB) exhibit characteristic fluctuations between relatively long endemic and shorter outbreak periods. Populations exhibit complex and hierarchical spatial structure with beetles and larvae aggregating within individual trees, infestations with multiple infested trees, and regional outbreaks that comprise a large...

  13. Intrinsically dynamic population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27 and (30 provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.

  14. Dynamics of settlements within Balyhorod commune through the use of GIS techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Іhor Kozak

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of settlements from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century in Balyhorod commune (in Polish “Baligród”, in Lesko district, Podkarpackie voivodeship in Eastern Poland. Balyhorod commune was analyzed in terms of the changes of settlements, applying maps together with published historical data for the analysis of changes in its structure. Firstly, the tactical map of «WIG-Military Institute of Geography» was applied. Secondly, maps from the «WMS-Web Map Service, Geoportal» were analyzed. Changes in the number of villages and households population dynamics for Greek Catholics, Latins and Jews for the year 1785 were evaluated applying ArcGIS 10.3 program. Ukrainian ones were evaluated using ArcGIS 10.3 program in comparison with the number of Poles and Jews for the year 1939. Ethnic and religious composition from the 2nd half of the 18th century to 2nd half of 20th century and the character of settlements distribution in Balyhorod commune was evaluated based on the study of spatial distribution of settlements with the use of Spatial Statistics (Spatial Autocorrelation Global Moran's test, Standard Deviational Ellipse and Mean Centre. In 1785 there were 74,01% of Greek Catholics and in 1939 there were 77,98% of Ukrainians in Balyhorod commune. There was confirmed a similar configuration of Standard Deviation Ellipse and Mean Center for Greek Catholics who were Ukrainians for the year 1785 and Ukrainians for the year 1939 in Balyhorod commune. The scale and results of such changes are essential for future research, mainly in terms of the change of traditional village system infrastructure and culture.

  15. Evolutionary dynamics of diploid populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desimone, Ralph; Newman, Timothy

    2003-10-01

    There has been much recent interest in constructing computer models of evolutionary dynamics. Typically these models focus on asexual population dynamics, which are appropriate for haploid organsims such as bacteria. Using a recently developed ``genome template'' model, we extend the algorithm to a sexual population of diploid organisms. We will present some early results showing the temporal evolution of mean fitness and genetic variation, and compare this to typical results from haploid populations.

  16. Rural population travel time to health services, mapped on Geographic Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Vicente Ferreira

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Distance and travel time are important parameters in the evaluation of access to health services, especially for the population living in the countryside. In the present work, a GIS-based methodology is developed for the mapping of rural road networks and the determination of travel impedances in order to optimize the travel time of the rural population to health care facilities. Data on rural roads classes, slope, sinuosity, visibility and land use are considered in the composition of the impedances synthesis and its application on car travel time. The methodology was applied to the region of Registro (SP, and the results indicate an unequal distribution of health services.

  17. [Dynamics of soil erosion at upper reaches of Minjiang River based on GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xingyuan; Hu, Zhibi; Li, Yuehui; Hu, Yuanman

    2005-12-01

    Based on TM and ETM imagines, and employing GIS technique and empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, this paper studied the dynamics of soil erosion at the upper reaches of Minjiang River during three typical periods, with the main affecting factors analyzed. The results showed that the soil erosion area was increased by 1.28%, 1.84 % and 1.70% in 1986, 1995 and 2000, respectively. The average erosion modulus was increased from 832.64 t x km(-2) x yr(-1) in 1986 to 1048.74 t x km(-2) yr(-2) in 1995 and reached 1362.11 t x km(-2) yr(-1) in 2000, and soil loss was mainly of slight and light erosion, companying with a small quantity of middling erosion. The area of soil erosion was small, and the degree was light. There was a significant correlation between slope and soil loss, which mainly happened in the regions with a slope larger than 25 degrees, and accounted for 93.65%, 93.81% and 92.71% of the total erosion in 1986, 1995 and 2000, respectively. As for the altitude, middling, semi-high and high mountains and dry valley were liable to soil erosion, which accounted for 98.21%, 97.63% and 99.27% of the total erosion in 1986, 1995 and 2000, respectively. Different vegetation had a significant effect on soil erosion, and shrub and newly restored forest were the main erosion area. Excessive depasture not only resulted in the degradation of pasture, but also led to slight soil erosion. Land use type and soil type also contributed to soil loss, among which, dry-cinnamon soil and calcic gray-cinnamon soil were the most dangerous ones needing more protection. Soil loss was also linearly increased with increasing population and households, which suggested that the increase of population and households was the driving factor for soil loss increase in this area.

  18. Analysis of Dynamics of Forest Landscapes of Administrative District by Means of GIS Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teslenok S.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available On the example of the territory of Insarsky District, located in the South of the middle part of the Republic of Mordovia, the authors reviewed the methodology and presented the results of the use of geographic information and aerospace technologies for the analysis of the dynamics of forest landscape in the period between the time slices – 1941 and 2009. The research allowed to reveal tendencies of change and development of forest landscapes through the creation of specialized GIS databases and the use of software ArcView GIS, MapInfo Professional, SAS.Planet, ERDAS Imagine, EasyTrace. Baseline data were presented cartographic materials – retrospective traditional and digital as well as the actual remote sensing data. Determining the area of forest landscapes, analysis, comparison, display and cartographic visualization of their dynamics are based on cartographicmaterials produced using GIS technology. In the GIS have been produced covered (overlay vector layers, analysis and comparison of obtained maps identifying the direction (increase or decrease of the changes and their possible causes, in order to reveal the dynamics the area of forest landscapes. In the case of processing of raster cartographic materials you can use toolkit raster algebra (map algebra. As a result, have been identified direction and possible causes of the changes the area of forest geosystems for each of the studied time sections, as well as the quantitative characteristics of extant disappeared and re-emerged of their arrays. In most of the analyzed territory there was an increase of forest landscapes, the cause of which should be considered as abandonment and non-use of agricultural land. The slight decrease in the area of forest geosystems may be associated with deforestation and fires. Obtained through research geoinformation and cartographic models and statistics are the basis for management decisions in the field of forestry and forest management, organization

  19. Display techniques for dynamic network data in transportation GIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganter, J.H.; Cashwell, J.W.

    1994-05-01

    Interest in the characteristics of urban street networks is increasing at the same time new monitoring technologies are delivering detailed traffic data. These emerging streams of data may lead to the dilemma that airborne remote sensing has faced: how to select and access the data, and what meaning is hidden in them? computer-assisted visualization techniques are needed to portray these dynamic data. Of equal importance are controls that let the user filter, symbolize, and replay the data to reveal patterns and trends over varying time spans. We discuss a prototype software system that addresses these requirements.

  20. Africa population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van, G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million today, or from 20% to 46% of the population as a whole. Demographers predict that soon more than 50% of all Africans will be living in cities. The average life expectancy, literacy rates and primar...

  1. Incorporating GIS building data and census housing statistics for sub-block-level population estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S.-S.; Wang, L.; Qiu, X.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents a deterministic model for sub-block-level population estimation based on the total building volumes derived from geographic information system (GIS) building data and three census block-level housing statistics. To assess the model, we generated artificial blocks by aggregating census block areas and calculating the respective housing statistics. We then applied the model to estimate populations for sub-artificial-block areas and assessed the estimates with census populations of the areas. Our analyses indicate that the average percent error of population estimation for sub-artificial-block areas is comparable to those for sub-census-block areas of the same size relative to associated blocks. The smaller the sub-block-level areas, the higher the population estimation errors. For example, the average percent error for residential areas is approximately 0.11 percent for 100 percent block areas and 35 percent for 5 percent block areas.

  2. Africa population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akinyoade, A.; Damen, J.C.M.; Dietz, A.J.; Kilama, B.B.; Omme, van G.

    2014-01-01

    Africa's population has grown extremely rapidly over the last fifty years from 289 million inhabitants in 1961 to more than 1 billion today. This is a growth rate of 350% in just half a century and the number of urban residents has increased even more quickly: from 65 million in 1960 to 460 million

  3. GIS based generation of dynamic hydrological and land patch simulation models for rural watershed areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Varga

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed. The Direct Computer Mapping (DCM based solution starts from GIS layers and, via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network, the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’ knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model. The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton, Hungary. In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses, 121 water sections, 57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model. The hydrological model involved precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, runoff, infiltration. The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE land cover based simplified “land patch” model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches, rivers and lakes. The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models, which, after validation can support the analysis of various land use, with the consideration of environmental aspects.

  4. The Population Health Approach: health GIS as a bridge from theory to practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Weimin

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Population Health Approach, proposed by Health Canada, is the articulation of a long advocated model of human health. This approach strives to ensure that the health system is appropriately oriented to improve health status by applying evidence based practices across the continuum from health determinants to service interventions. Although conceptually appealing, it has been difficult to implement widely in the existing program-based health care system. The Population Health Surveillance Unit (PHSU of the Vancouver Island Health Authority (VIHA has developed a health geographical information system (HGIS, where GIS is used as both platform for information integration and as an analytical tool supporting comprehensive data analysis. With the assistance of the HGIS, the theory of the population health approach can be transformed into a practical, stepwise process supporting health services and program planning. Results Three important components of a health service planning and evaluation framework grounded in population health theory are described in this article. In particular, a stepwise methodological process to enable the incorporation of the principles of a population health into practical applications is presented; the technical functionality to integrate multiple sources of information, with different levels and scales is discussed; and sources of information about the health of the population at the appropriate level to populate this frame are proposed. An application of the methodology in the planning of health services for a high needs neighbourhood is presented as an illustrative example. Conclusion The population health approach incorporates the consideration of health determinants and the context within which the health conditions arise in communities. The complexity of these relationships requires the application of innovative methodologies such as Health GIS to frame the issues practically. A population

  5. ES4LUCC: A GIS-tool for remotely monitoring landscape dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Battistini, Alessandro; Catani, Filippo

    2012-12-01

    Given the potential impacts of land cover changes on surface processes, accurate mapping of landscape dynamics is a crucial task in environmental monitoring. The use of commercial software for remote sensing of landscape changes requires appropriate expertise in sensor technology and computing resources that are not always available to decision makers. This paper presents the development of an experimental prototype of a lightweight and user-friendly GIS tool - ES4LUCC - a semiautomatic software for change detection and classification of land use/cover. The tool is based on image processing techniques applied on multi-temporal remotely sensed spectral and surface model data. The GIS-based tiling approach allows to non-specialists of remote sensing to manage high-dimensional data even from low performance computing platforms. The paper synthesizes the implemented digital image processing that form the basis of ES4LUCC, including data correction, classification and change detection, map refinements. It also describes the software architecture, the main IDL modules and the integration with GIS through a tight coupling approach and.dll calling functions. The main modelling process is controlled through a powerful GUI developed as part of the ArcMap component of ESRI ArcGIS. The software is tested by using bi-temporal color-infrared ADS40 and Light detection and ranging data acquired on a 80-km transect of the Marecchia river (Italy). The outputs of ES4LUCC give an understanding of the natural- and human-induced surface processes, such as urban planning, agricultural and forest practices, fluvial dynamics and slope instability. The model provides reliable maps (90.77% overall classification accuracy) that represent useful layers for environmental landscape management.

  6. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  7. A comprehensive population dataset for Afghanistan constructed using GIS-based dasymetric mapping methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Allyson L.; Hubbard, Bernard E.

    2014-01-01

    This report summarizes the application of dasymetric methods for mapping the distribution of population throughout Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan's population has constantly changed through decades of war and conflict, existing vector and raster GIS datasets (such as point settlement densities and intensities of lights at night) do not adequately reflect the changes. The purposes of this report are (1) to provide historic population data at the provincial and district levels that can be used to chart population growth and migration trends within the country and (2) to provide baseline information that can be used for other types of spatial analyses of Afghanistan, such as resource and hazard assessments; infrastructure and capacity rebuilding; and assisting with international, regional, and local planning.

  8. Physical analysis of groundwater at thickly populated area of Faisalabad by using GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasir, A.; Arslan, C.; Sattar, A.

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater is the major source of drinking and soil pollution deteriorates its quality. The study was conducted in the area of Ghulam Muhammad Abad, the most thickly populated area of District Faisalabad, Pakistan. Primary information was collected by conducting the general survey of the area. Sampling was done by dividing the entire area into six zones. A total of 159 groundwater samples were collected from newly installed pumps at the depth of 90 ft. The samples were then tested for physical parameters as EC (electrical conductivity), pH, TDS (total dissolved solids), TS (total solids) and TSS (total suspended solids). Test results were compared with the guidelines given by WHO (World Health Organization), and standards drafted by PSI (Pakistan Standard Institution). GIS analysis was done by using ArcGIS v 9.2. These parameters were analyzed in drinking water with respect to drinking purpose. EC of samples ranged from 0.074 S/m to 6.044 S/m. Only 8 samples were found within the permissible limit given by WHO, i.e. 2.504 S/m. GIS analysis showed that most of the area have EC greater than permissible limit. pH value ranged from 2.19 to 6.20. All the samples were found below the permissible limit given by WHO, i.e. 6.5 to 8.5. GIS map for pH indicated that almost 80% area has the pH value ranging from 4.90 to 5.21. TDS in groundwater samples ranged from 309 mg/L to 3530 mg/L. Only 2 samples were found within the permissible limit given by PSI, i.e. 1500 mg/L. GIS analysis revealed that almost 50% area lies under high concentration of TDS. TSS in samples varied from 3 mg/L to 2222 mg/L. There were no guidelines for TSS in drinking water but are supposed to be near to 0 mg/L in groundwater. TS in groundwater samples varied from 400 mg/L to 5200 mg/L. High value of TS effect the value of EC and TDS. Hence, all the values of physical parameters revealed that the groundwater of the area is not suitable for drinking purpose and needs to improve the groundwater quality of

  9. Dynamic analysis on urban land development based on remote sensing image and GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinyan; Xu, Zhe

    2013-10-01

    Recent years, China's rapid economic development speeds up the process of urbanization, the most prominent is the rapid expansion of urban land. In this paper, remote sensing, GIS and statistical analysis techniques are used to analyze the dynamic process of land development of Wuhan city from 1995 to 2010, and its causes. Then the effectiveness of the urban master plan of Wuhan city in 1996 is evaluated. Finally, we analyze the possible reasons for the failure of urban planning, which will provide a reference for the future urban planning and management of Wuhan city.

  10. Evolutionary dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowak, Martin A.; Tarnita, Corina E.; Antal, Tibor

    2010-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics shape the living world around us. At the centre of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The structure of that population affects evolutionary dynamics. The individuals can be molecules, cells, viruses, multicellular organisms or humans. Whenever the fitness of individuals depends on the relative abundance of phenotypes in the population, we are in the realm of evolutionary game theory. Evolutionary game theory is a general approach that can describe the competition of species in an ecosystem, the interaction between hosts and parasites, between viruses and cells, and also the spread of ideas and behaviours in the human population. In this perspective, we review the recent advances in evolutionary game dynamics with a particular emphasis on stochastic approaches in finite sized and structured populations. We give simple, fundamental laws that determine how natural selection chooses between competing strategies. We study the well-mixed population, evolutionary graph theory, games in phenotype space and evolutionary set theory. We apply these results to the evolution of cooperation. The mechanism that leads to the evolution of cooperation in these settings could be called ‘spatial selection’: cooperators prevail against defectors by clustering in physical or other spaces. PMID:20008382

  11. Georeferenced Population Datasets of Mexico (GEO-MEX): Urban Place GIS Coverage of Mexico

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Urban Place GIS Coverage of Mexico is a vector based point Geographic Information System (GIS) coverage of 696 urban places in Mexico. Each Urban Place is...

  12. Automation of GIS-Based Population Data-Collection for Transportation Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MILLS, G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER, SIEGLINDE

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of the potential radiological risks associated with highway transport of radioactive materials (RAM) requires input data describing population densities adjacent to all portions of the route to be traveled. Previously, aggregated risks for entire multi-state routes were adequately estimated from population data with low geographic resolution. Current demands for geographically-specific risk estimates require similar increases in resolution of population density adjacent to route segments. With the advent of commercial geographic information systems (GISs) and databases describing highways, U.S. Census Blocks, and other information that is geographically distributed, it became feasible to determine and tabulate population characteristics along transportation routes with 1-kilometer resolution. This report describes an automated method of collecting population data adjacent to route segments (for calculation of incident-free doses) based on a commercial GIS. It also describes a statistical method of resolving remaining resolution issues, and an adaptation of the automation method to collection of data on population under a hypothetical plume of contamination resulting from a potential transportation accident

  13. GIS ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE ALTITUDINAL ZONATION FOR PLACEMENT OF RURAL POPULATION (THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH OSETIA - ALANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Turun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the advantages and some of the possibilities of GIS in the study of the dynamics of rural settlement. A method for the analysis of settlement network republic on hypsometric steps. The results of studies of rural settlement of North Ossetia - Alania for the period 1959 - 2010 by altitude zones.

  14. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  15. Application of GIS for population dose assessment in the Chernobyl accident area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yatsalo, B.I.; Didenko, V.I.; Balonov, M.I.; Golikov, V.Yu.

    2000-01-01

    The development of updated approaches to evaluating the long-term consequences of the Chernobyl accident is based on the experience of authors in assessing population doses and in creating Decision Support Systems (DSS) in radioecology with the use of GIS technologies. 'Dose block' is a key component of the PRANA GIS-DSS on rehabilitation of contaminated territories after Chernobyl accident. When estimating internal and external doses to the local population the following components of PRANA are used: electronic maps for territories under investigation (5 contaminated districts of Bryansk reg.); databases (including database associated with polygons of vector electronic maps, and database for model and other input parameters); updated and modified mathematical models for assessing external and internal doses to the local population (from 137 Cs and 90 Sr); corresponding computer modules and user interface. Library of electronic maps includes different layers of vector maps of landuse for territories under consideration. Map of landuse for each district comprises all elements of land use: agricultural fields (arable lands, pastures and hayfields), forests, gardens, settlements, swamps and water bodies. Databases associated with polygons of vector maps include the following main monitoring data for each polygon: for fields - soil contamination density with 137 Cs and 90 Sr, soil type, mechanical and chemical composition, crop rotation; for settlements - contamination density, monitoring data of internal and external doses, local diet, behaviour and location and other factors, demographic data, etc. Other databases include all the parameters necessary for assessing contamination of agricultural products and internal/external doses: various transfer factors, parameters of countermeasures, productivity and/or production of agricultural crops, milk and meat (both for private and farm production), etc. Special attention was paid to developing and adjusting to elements of

  16. Comparison of ArcGIS and SAS Geostatistical Analyst to Estimate Population-Weighted Monthly Temperature for US Counties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaopeng, Q I; Liang, Wei; Barker, Laurie; Lekiachvili, Akaki; Xingyou, Zhang

    Temperature changes are known to have significant impacts on human health. Accurate estimates of population-weighted average monthly air temperature for US counties are needed to evaluate temperature's association with health behaviours and disease, which are sampled or reported at the county level and measured on a monthly-or 30-day-basis. Most reported temperature estimates were calculated using ArcGIS, relatively few used SAS. We compared the performance of geostatistical models to estimate population-weighted average temperature in each month for counties in 48 states using ArcGIS v9.3 and SAS v 9.2 on a CITGO platform. Monthly average temperature for Jan-Dec 2007 and elevation from 5435 weather stations were used to estimate the temperature at county population centroids. County estimates were produced with elevation as a covariate. Performance of models was assessed by comparing adjusted R 2 , mean squared error, root mean squared error, and processing time. Prediction accuracy for split validation was above 90% for 11 months in ArcGIS and all 12 months in SAS. Cokriging in SAS achieved higher prediction accuracy and lower estimation bias as compared to cokriging in ArcGIS. County-level estimates produced by both packages were positively correlated (adjusted R 2 range=0.95 to 0.99); accuracy and precision improved with elevation as a covariate. Both methods from ArcGIS and SAS are reliable for U.S. county-level temperature estimates; However, ArcGIS's merits in spatial data pre-processing and processing time may be important considerations for software selection, especially for multi-year or multi-state projects.

  17. A GIS Approach to Identifying Socially and Medically Vulnerable Older Adult Populations in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hames, Elizabeth; Stoler, Justin; Emrich, Christopher T; Tewary, Sweta; Pandya, Naushira

    2017-11-10

    We define, map, and analyze geodemographic patterns of socially and medically vulnerable older adults within the tri-county region of South Florida. We apply principal components analysis (PCA) to a set of previously identified indicators of social and medical vulnerability at the census tract level. We create and map age-stratified vulnerability scores using a geographic information system (GIS), and use spatial analysis techniques to identify patterns and interactions between social and medical vulnerability. Key factors contributing to social vulnerability in areas with higher numbers of older adults include age, large household size, and Hispanic ethnicity. Medical vulnerability in these same areas is driven by disease burden, access to emergency cardiac services, availability of nursing home and hospice beds, access to home health care, and available mental health services. Age-dependent areas of social vulnerability emerge in Broward County, whereas age-dependent areas of medical vulnerability emerge in Palm Beach County. Older-adult social and medical vulnerability interact differently throughout the study area. Spatial analysis of older adult social and medical vulnerability using PCA and GIS can help identify age-dependent pockets of vulnerability that are not easily identifiable in a populationwide analysis; improve our understanding of the dynamic spatial organization of health care, health care needs, access to care, and outcomes; and ultimately serve as a tool for health care planning. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  19. Flood trends and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, G.

    2012-04-01

    Since the earliest recorded civilizations, such as those in Mesopotamia and Egypt that developed in the fertile floodplains of the Tigris and Euphrates and Nile rivers, humans tend to settle in flood prone areas as they offer favorable conditions for economic development. However, floodplains are also exposed to flood disasters that might cause severe socio-economic and environmental damages not to mention losses of human lives. A flood event turns to be a disaster when it coincides with a vulnerable environment exceeding society's capacity to manage the adverse consequences. This presentation discusses the link between hydrological risk and population change by referring to the outcomes of scientific works recently carried out in Africa and Europe. More specifically, it is shown that the severity of flood disasters, currently affecting more than 100 million people a year, might be seriously exacerbated because of population change. In fact, flood exposure and/or vulnerability might increase because of rapid population growth (and its spatial and temporal dynamics, e.g. urbanization) in the African continent and because of population ageing in many European countries. Lastly, timely and economically sustainable actions to mitigate this increasing hydrological risk are critically evaluated.

  20. Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Lina

    Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that

  1. A GRASS GIS application for vertical sorting of sediments analysis in River Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalisa Minelli

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The extreme versatility in different research fields of GRASS GIS is well known. A tool for the vertical sorting of sediments in river dynamics analysis is illustrated in this work.In particular, a GRASS GIS python module has been written which implements a forecasting sorting model by Blom&Parker (2006 to analyze river bed composition’s evolution in depth in terms of grainsize.The module takes a DEM and information relative to the bed load transport composition as input. It works in two different and consecutive phases: the first one uses the GRASS capabilities in analyzing geometrical features of the river bed along a chosen river reach, the second phase is the "numerical" one and implements the forecasting model itself, then executes statistical analyses and draws graphs, by the means of matplotlib library.Moreover, a specific procedure for the import of a laser scanner cloud of points is implemented, in case the raster DEM map is not available.At the moment, the module has been applied using flumes data from Saint Anthony Falls Laboratory (Minneapolis, MN and some first results have been obtained, but the "testing" phase on other flume’s data is still in progress. Moreover the module has been written for GRASS 65 on a Ubuntu Linux machine, even if the debugging of a GRASS 64, Windowsversion, is also in progress.The final aim of this work is the application of the model on natural rivers, but there are still some drawbacks. First of all the need of a high resolution DEM in input, secondly the number and type of data in input (for example the bed load composition in volume fraction per each size considered which is not easily obtainable, so the best solution is represented by testing the model on a well instrumented river reach to export in future the forecasting method to un-instrumented reaches.

  2. An Updating System for the Gridded Population Database of China Based on Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Database Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaohuan; Huang, Yaohuan; Dong, Pinliang; Jiang, Dong; Liu, Honghui

    2009-01-01

    The spatial distribution of population is closely related to land use and land cover (LULC) patterns on both regional and global scales. Population can be redistributed onto geo-referenced square grids according to this relation. In the past decades, various approaches to monitoring LULC using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been developed, which makes it possible for efficient updating of geo-referenced population data. A Spatial Population Updating System (SPUS) is developed for updating the gridded population database of China based on remote sensing, GIS and spatial database technologies, with a spatial resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The SPUS can process standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS L1B) data integrated with a Pattern Decomposition Method (PDM) and an LULC-Conversion Model to obtain patterns of land use and land cover, and provide input parameters for a Population Spatialization Model (PSM). The PSM embedded in SPUS is used for generating 1 km by 1 km gridded population data in each population distribution region based on natural and socio-economic variables. Validation results from finer township-level census data of Yishui County suggest that the gridded population database produced by the SPUS is reliable. PMID:22399959

  3. An Updating System for the Gridded Population Database of China Based on Remote Sensing, GIS and Spatial Database Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohuan Yang

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of population is closely related to land use and land cover (LULC patterns on both regional and global scales. Population can be redistributed onto geo-referenced square grids according to this relation. In the past decades, various approaches to monitoring LULC using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS have been developed, which makes it possible for efficient updating of geo-referenced population data. A Spatial Population Updating System (SPUS is developed for updating the gridded population database of China based on remote sensing, GIS and spatial database technologies, with a spatial resolution of 1 km by 1 km. The SPUS can process standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS L1B data integrated with a Pattern Decomposition Method (PDM and an LULC-Conversion Model to obtain patterns of land use and land cover, and provide input parameters for a Population Spatialization Model (PSM. The PSM embedded in SPUS is used for generating 1 km by 1 km gridded population data in each population distribution region based on natural and socio-economic variables. Validation results from finer township-level census data of Yishui County suggest that the gridded population database produced by the SPUS is reliable.

  4. Modelling population growth on public water and sanitation facilities using GIS and statistics: a case study of Aboabo, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaye-Ballard, Jonathan Arthur; An, Ru

    2010-10-01

    Effect of population increase on public water and sanitation facilities in densely populated area, Aboabo, Kumasi, Ghana. Town sheet maps, layout and population census data of Aboabo. GPS for observing spatial locations existing water and sanitation facilities and field verification exercise in the study. GIS for building geodatabase, digitization and Cartographic Visualization. Questionnaires were used to collect non-spatial information on the sanitation facilities and all public facilities. GIS and a Statistical Approach have been respectively used to develop cartographic and mathematical models to analyse, predict and visualize the effect of population increase on public water and sewage facilities in densely populated area. The developed mathematical models correlates with the population at each instance to the required number of water accessible points or standing pipes as well as the number of required public toilet (sewage) facilities. The cartographic and mathematical models provides an efficient and effective means of mitigating diseases associated with water and sanitation; and informs planners and assembly members of the effects of increasing population on public facilities for proper future planning and geospatial decision making; and to ensure proper infrastructural management at the community levels. Effective decision support systems for analysing, predicting and visualizing public water and sewage facilities in densely populated area. Draws the awareness of the government, concerned groups and non-Governmental Organizations (NGO's) to the extreme detrimental effect that the increase in population has, especially on public water and sewage facilities and how it can be managed at the community level.

  5. Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and biology of an invasive population of mosquitofish Gambusia affinis in a temperate estuarine lake system. Hans Sloterdijk, Nicola C. James, M Kyle S. Smith, Werner Ekau, Olaf L.F. Weyl ...

  6. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  7. China Dimensions Data Collection: China County-Level Data on Population (Census) and Agriculture, Keyed to 1:1M GIS Map

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — China County-Level Data on Population (Census) and Agriculture, Keyed To 1:1M GIS Map consists of census, agricultural economic, and boundary data for the...

  8. Dynamic analysis, transformation, dissemination and applications of scientific multidimensional data in ArcGIS Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, S. R.; Collow, T. W.; Rose, B.

    2016-12-01

    Scientific datasets are generated from various sources and platforms but they are typically produced either by earth observation systems or by modelling systems. These are widely used for monitoring, simulating, or analyzing measurements that are associated with physical, chemical, and biological phenomena over the ocean, atmosphere, or land. A significant subset of scientific datasets stores values directly as rasters or in a form that can be rasterized. This is where a value exists at every cell in a regular grid spanning the spatial extent of the dataset. Government agencies like NOAA, NASA, EPA, USGS produces large volumes of near real-time, forecast, and historical data that drives climatological and meteorological studies, and underpins operations ranging from weather prediction to sea ice loss. Modern science is computationally intensive because of the availability of an enormous amount of scientific data, the adoption of data-driven analysis, and the need to share these dataset and research results with the public. ArcGIS as a platform is sophisticated and capable of handling such complex domain. We'll discuss constructs and capabilities applicable to multidimensional gridded data that can be conceptualized as a multivariate space-time cube. Building on the concept of a two-dimensional raster, a typical multidimensional raster dataset could contain several "slices" within the same spatial extent. We will share a case from the NOAA Climate Forecast Systems Reanalysis (CFSR) multidimensional data as an example of how large collections of rasters can be efficiently organized and managed through a data model within a geodatabase called "Mosaic dataset" and dynamically transformed and analyzed using raster functions. A raster function is a lightweight, raster-valued transformation defined over a mixed set of raster and scalar input. That means, just like any tool, you can provide a raster function with input parameters. It enables dynamic processing of only the

  9. Identifying High-Risk Populations of Tuberculosis Using Environmental Factors and GIS Based Multi-Criteria Decision Making Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasam, A. R. Abdul; Shariff, N. M.; Dony, J. F.

    2016-09-01

    Development of an innovative method to enhance the detection of tuberculosis (TB) in Malaysia is the latest agenda of the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a geographical information system (GIS) based index model is proposed as an alternative method for defining potential high-risk areas of local TB cases at Section U19, Shah Alam. It is adopted a spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method for ranking environmental risk factors of the disease in a standardised five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 illustrate the lowest and the highest risk of the TB spread respectively, while scale from 3 to 5 is included as a potential risk level. These standardised scale values are then combined with expert normalised weights (0 to 1) to calculate the overall index values and produce a TB ranked map using a GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination. It is discovered that 71.43% of the Section is potential as TB high risk areas particularly at urban and densely populated settings. This predictive result is also reliable with the current real cases in 2015 by 76.00% accuracy. A GIS based MCDM method has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and TB surveillance monitoring system of the country, but the result could be strengthened by applying other uncertainty assessment method.

  10. Leading edge gypsy moth population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. R. Carter; F. W. Ravlin; M. L. McManus

    1991-01-01

    Leading edge gypsy moth populations have been the focus of several intervention programs (MDIPM, AIPM). Knowledge of gypsy moth population dynamics in leading edge area is crucial for effective management. Populations in these areas tend to reach outbreak levels (noticeable defoliation) within three to four years after egg masses are first detected. Pheromone traps...

  11. ???????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?? ?????? ArcGIS ??? ?????? ??????????????? ?????????? ????? ???????????? ?????????? ???????????

    OpenAIRE

    ?????, ?.; ?????, ?.; ???????????, ?.; ????????, ?.

    2016-01-01

    ?????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????????? ??????? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ???????????? ????????? ????? ?????? ?? ????????? ???????????? ?????????? ???????????. ??????? ??????? ??????? ???????, ???????????? ?? ???? ??????????? ???????????? ArcGIS. ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ?????????? ? ????????????? ??????? ArcGIS Online ?? ??????? Collector for ArcGIS. ???????? ???? ???????? ????????????????? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ? ?????????????? ?????? ????? ???????? ?? ?...

  12. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  13. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  14. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  15. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  16. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  17. Population dynamics in vasopressin cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin; Sabatier, Nancy; Scott, Victoria

    2008-01-01

    Most neurons sense and code change, and when presented with a constant stimulus they adapt, so as to be able to detect a fresh change. However, for some things it is important to know their absolute level; to encode such information, neurons must sustain their response to an unchanging stimulus while remaining able to respond to a change in that stimulus. One system that encodes the absolute level of a stimulus is the vasopressin system, which generates a hormonal signal that is proportional to plasma osmolality. Vasopressin cells sense plasma osmolality and secrete appropriate levels of vasopressin from the neurohypophysis as needed to control water excretion; this requires sustained secretion under basal conditions and the ability to increase (or decrease) secretion should plasma osmolality change. Here we explore the mechanisms that enable vasopressin cells to fulfill this function, and consider how coordination between the cells might distribute the secretory load across the population of vasopressin cells. 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Population Dynamics and Air Pollution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flachs, Esben Meulengracht; Sørensen, Jan; Bønløkke, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To explore how three different assumptions on demographics affect the health impact of Danish emitted air pollution in Denmark from 2005 to 2030, with health impact modeled from 2005 to 2050. Methods. Modeled air pollution from Danish sources was used as exposure in a newly developed......) a static year 2005 population, (2) morbidity and mortality fixed at the year 2005 level, or (3) an expected development. Results. The health impact of air pollution was estimated at 672,000, 290,000, and 280,000 lost life years depending on demographic assumptions and the corresponding social costs at 430.......4 M€, 317.5 M€, and 261.6 M€ through the modeled years 2005–2050. Conclusion. The modeled health impact of air pollution differed widely with the demographic assumptions, and thus demographics and assumptions on demographics played a key role in making health impact assessments on air pollution....

  19. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  20. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and migrating species, respectively. The dynamics of all four resident species were significantly affected by variations in snow-cover and explained up to 65% of their inter-annual dynamics. The three predators differed in their numerical response to changes in prey densities. Whereas the population dynamics...... a bewildering number of interactions. For example, individuals within a population may compete for space and other resources and, being embedded in an ecosystem, individuals in any population may also interact with individuals of competing species as well as those from adjacent trophic levels. In principal...

  1. Assessing land-use changes driven by river dynamics in chronically flood affected Upper Brahmaputra plains, India, using RS-GIS techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabajit Hazarika

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This work documents land-use changes driven by river dynamics along two tributaries in the chronically flood affected Upper Brahmaputra floodplain which supports a population of more than half a million. Planform changes for a period of 40 years are documented using topographical map and Landsat data, and the associated land-use change is assessed by utilising hybrid classification in GIS environment. Quantification of bankline migration shows that the river courses are unstable. A reversal in the rate of erosion and deposition is also observed. Hybrid classification of Landsat images yielded a higher level of accuracy as evident from the confusion matrixes. Overall, the accuracy of land-use classification ranged between 88.5% and 96.25%. Land-use change shows that there is an increase in settlement and agriculture and a decrease in the grassland. The area affected by erosion–deposition and river migration comprises primarily of the agricultural land. Effect of river dynamics on settlements is also evident. Loss of agricultural land and homestead led to the loss of livelihood and internal migration in the floodplains. The observed pattern of river dynamics and the consequent land-use change in the recent decades have thrown newer environmental challenges at a pace and magnitude way beyond the coping capabilities of the dwellers.

  2. Harvest and dynamics of duck populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedinger, James S.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2012-01-01

    The role of harvest in the dynamics of waterfowl populations continues to be debated among scientists and managers. Our perception is that interested members of the public and some managers believe that harvest influences North American duck populations based on calls for more conservative harvest regulations. A recent review of harvest and population dynamics of North American mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations (Pöysä et al. 2004) reached similar conclusions. Because of the importance of this issue, we reviewed the evidence for an impact of harvest on duck populations. Our understanding of the effects of harvest is limited because harvest effects are typically confounded with those of population density; regulations are typically most liberal when populations are greatest. This problem also exists in the current Adaptive Harvest Management Program (Conn and Kendall 2004). Consequently, even where harvest appears additive to other mortality, this may be an artifact of ignoring effects of population density. Overall, we found no compelling evidence for strong additive effects of harvest on survival in duck populations that could not be explained by other factors.

  3. Rates, intrinsic linkages, and multistate population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoen, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Demographic analyses of multistate populations are commonplace, as are situations where population stocks are known but population flows are not. Still, demographic models for multistate populations with changing rates remain at an early stage of development, limiting dynamic analyses and analytical projections. Here, a new approach, the Intrinsic Linkage-Rate Ratio (IL-RR) model, is presented and explored. The key IL parameter, w , is a simple weight for projecting populations. Using the ultimate state composition implied by the prevailing rates, the IL-RR model provides new relationships that connect multistate populations over time and allow analytical population projections. Parameter w reflects population metabolism and scales the level of the transfer rates. Compositional change is driven by the sequence of implicit stable population compositions. The IL-RR approach also provides a new method for estimating transfer rates within an interval from population numbers at the beginning and end of the interval. The new relationships developed advance the ability of demographers to model multistate populations with changing rates and to relate population stocks and flows.

  4. Conspecific brood parasitism and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Valpine, Perry; Eadie, John M

    2008-10-01

    Conspecific brood parasitism (CBP), defined as parasitic laying of eggs in a conspecific nest without providing parental care, occurs in insects, fishes, amphibians, and many birds. Numerous factors have been proposed to influence the evolution of CBP, including nest site limitation; effects of brood size, laying order, or parasitic status on offspring survival; randomness of parasitic egg distribution; adult life-history trade-offs; and variation in parental female quality or risk of nest predation. However, few theoretical studies consider multiple possible types of parasitism or the interplay between evolution of parasitism and population dynamics. We review existing theory of CBP and develop a synthetic modeling approach to ask how best-of-a-bad job parasitism, separate-strategies parasitism (in which females either nest or parasitize), and joint-strategies parasitism (in which females can both nest and parasitize) differ in their evolutionary conditions and impacts on population dynamics using an adaptive dynamics framework including multivariate traits. CBP can either stabilize or destabilize population dynamics in different scenarios, and the role of comparable parameters on evolutionarily stable strategy parasitism rate, equilibrium population size, and population stability can differ for the different modes of parasitism.

  5. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  6. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  7. Population dynamics and distribution of hydrocarbon utilizing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Laboratory studies were carried out to assess the bacterial population dynamics and distribution in composite soil samples collected from five (5) different automobile workshops at various locations (Ikpa road, Nwaniba road, Udi street, Idakokpo lane and Mechanic village) within Uyo metropolis. The hydrocarbon utilizing ...

  8. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    ABSTRACT. The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es ...

  9. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  10. Population dynamics of Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of three maize varieties and two storage seasons on the population dynamics of Prostephanus truncates (Horn) and Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky were observed in the traditional `Ewe' barn in the field. Two local varieties, Dzolokpuita and Abutia and an improved variety, Abeleehi, were stored with the husk on ...

  11. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SPAWNING OF THE FLATFISH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of flatfish Solea bleekeri and Pseudorhombus arsius within the intertidal area of Inhaca Island, Moçambique, was investigated using bottom trawl data collected during summer (December 1996–March 1997) and winter (June 1997–August 1997). The endemic S. bleekeri is a small, relatively ...

  12. The population dynamics of the Prorocentraceae, Gonyaulacaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An investigation into the dynamics of Protozoan populations in Ologe lagoon was carried out for a period of 24 months. It covered identification, diversity and elucidating the influence of some physical and chemical parameters on temporal abundance and spatial distribution of the Protozoa. Four villages around the lagoon ...

  13. Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Kabir; Murthy, M S R; Wahid, Shahriar M; Matin, Mir A

    2016-01-01

    High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region.

  14. Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabir Uddin

    Full Text Available High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS data and a geographic information system (GIS to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010. The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region.

  15. Estimation of Soil Erosion Dynamics in the Koshi Basin Using GIS and Remote Sensing to Assess Priority Areas for Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uddin, Kabir; Murthy, M. S. R.; Wahid, Shahriar M.; Matin, Mir A.

    2016-01-01

    High levels of water-induced erosion in the transboundary Himalayan river basins are contributing to substantial changes in basin hydrology and inundation. Basin-wide information on erosion dynamics is needed for conservation planning, but field-based studies are limited. This study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the spatial distribution of soil erosion across the entire Koshi basin, to identify changes between 1990 and 2010, and to develop a conservation priority map. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in an ArcGIS environment with rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, cover-management, and support practice factors as primary parameters. The estimated annual erosion from the basin was around 40 million tonnes (40 million tonnes in 1990 and 42 million tonnes in 2010). The results were within the range of reported levels derived from isolated plot measurements and model estimates. Erosion risk was divided into eight classes from very low to extremely high and mapped to show the spatial pattern of soil erosion risk in the basin in 1990 and 2010. The erosion risk class remained unchanged between 1990 and 2010 in close to 87% of the study area, but increased over 9.0% of the area and decreased over 3.8%, indicating an overall worsening of the situation. Areas with a high and increasing risk of erosion were identified as priority areas for conservation. The study provides the first assessment of erosion dynamics at the basin level and provides a basis for identifying conservation priorities across the Koshi basin. The model has a good potential for application in similar river basins in the Himalayan region. PMID:26964039

  16. A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google EarthTM imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galway LP

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. Results We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Conclusion Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings.

  17. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  18. Population dynamics with symmetric and asymmetric harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ali

    2009-10-01

    Here $\\lambda, a, b, c$ and $L$ are positive constants with $0population dynamics with logistic type growth and constant yield harvesting. Here $u$ is the population density, $\\frac{1}{\\lambda}$ is the diffusion coefficient and $c$ is the harvesting effort. In particular, model A corresponds to a symmetric harvesting case and model B to an asymmetric harvesting case. Our objective is to study the existence of positive solutions and also discuss the effects of harvesting. We will develop appropriate quadrature methods via which we will establish our results.

  19. Whitefly population dynamics in okra plantations

    OpenAIRE

    Leite,Germano Leão Demolin; Picanço,Marcelo; Jham,Gulab Newandram; Moreira,Márcio Dionízio

    2005-01-01

    The control of whitefly Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) on okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L.) consists primarily in the use of insecticides, due to the lack of information on other mortality factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the whitefly B. tabaci biotype B on two successive A. esculentus var. "Santa Cruz" plantations. Leaf chemical composition, leaf nitrogen and potassium contents, trichome density...

  20. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  1. Galactic civilizations - Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1981-01-01

    A model is developed of the interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations which takes into account the population dynamics of such civilizations. The problem is formulated in terms of potential theory, with a family of nonlinear partial differential and difference equations specifying population growth and diffusion for an organism with advantageous genes that undergoes random dispersal while increasing in population locally, and a population at zero population growth. In the case of nonlinear diffusion with growth and saturation, it is found that the colonization wavefront from the nearest independently arisen galactic civilization can have reached the earth only if its lifetime exceeds 2.6 million years, or 20 million years if discretization can be neglected. For zero population growth, the corresponding lifetime is 13 billion years. It is concluded that the earth is uncolonized not because interstellar spacefaring civilizations are rare, but because there are too many worlds to be colonized in the plausible colonization lifetime of nearby civilizations, and that there exist no very old galactic civilizations with a consistent policy of the conquest of inhabited worlds.

  2. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  3. Monitoring microbial population dynamics at low densities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julou, Thomas; Desprat, Nicolas; Bensimon, David; Croquette, Vincent

    2012-07-01

    We propose a new and simple method for the measurement of microbial concentrations in highly diluted cultures. This method is based on an analysis of the intensity fluctuations of light scattered by microbial cells under laser illumination. Two possible measurement strategies are identified and compared using simulations and measurements of the concentration of gold nanoparticles. Based on this comparison, we show that the concentration of Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultures can be easily measured in situ across a concentration range that spans five orders of magnitude. The lowest measurable concentration is three orders of magnitude (1000×) smaller than in current optical density measurements. We show further that this method can also be used to measure the concentration of fluorescent microbial cells. In practice, this new method is well suited to monitor the dynamics of population growth at early colonization of a liquid culture medium. The dynamic data thus obtained are particularly relevant for microbial ecology studies.

  4. GIS Database and Google Map of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Mueang Yang District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Joosiri, Apinya; Jantakate, Sirinun; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Chimplee, Kanokporn; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

    2016-01-01

    Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious problem in Thailand, particularly in the northeastern and northern regions. Database of population at risk are need required for monitoring, surveillance, home health care, and home visit. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a geographic information system (GIS) database and Google map of the population at risk of CCA in Mueang Yang district, Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand during June to October 2015. Populations at risk were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST). Software included Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS, and Google Maps. The secondary data included the point of villages, sub-district boundaries, district boundaries, point of hospital in Mueang Yang district, used for created the spatial databese. The populations at risk for CCA and opisthorchiasis were used to create an arttribute database. Data were tranfered to WGS84 UTM ZONE 48. After the conversion, all of the data were imported into Google Earth using online web pages www.earthpoint.us. Some 222 from a 4,800 population at risk for CCA constituted a high risk group. Geo-visual display available at following www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/ edit?mid=zPxtcHv_iDLo.kvPpxl5mAs90 and hl=th. Geo-visual display 5 layers including: layer 1, village location and number of the population at risk for CCA; layer 2, sub-district health promotion hospital in Mueang Yang district and number of opisthorchiasis; layer 3, sub-district district and the number of population at risk for CCA; layer 4, district hospital and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis; and layer 5, district and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis. This GIS database and Google map production process is suitable for further monitoring, surveillance, and home health care for CCA sufferers.

  5. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  6. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded......, is related to differences in the compositions of predator and prey species. The significant inter-trophic interactions are centred on the collared lemming as a result of which there is a significant potential for indirect climate effects mediated across the established consumer-resource interactions......it is well established that climatic as well as biological factors, in concert, form the mechanistic basis for our understanding of how populations develop over time and across space. Although this seemingly suggests simplicity, the climate-biology dichotomy of population dynamics embraces...

  7. Modeling of Culicidae population capacity using remote sensing, GIS, and fractal geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Daniel P.

    A remote sensing and fractal geometric approach is proposed for the surveillance of mosquito population. The spread of vector-borne pathogens is becoming increasingly important with recent discussions of extensive human urbanization and global climate change. To date most studies dealing with mosquito transmitted disease surveyed by remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems have been conducted in tropical homogenous locales. This study approached the issue in a rapidly suburbanizing county in the Midwestern portion of the United States. Adult mosquitoes were trapped over a several year period and the landscape of the surrounding patches analyzed via remote sensing, fractal geometry, and areal summation. Additionally, frequently used vegetation indices were employed in the analysis of the landscape. The fractal method outperformed the areal metric slightly. Future methods of mosquito surveillance using remote sensing are also discussed. Mosquito abatement policy may also be enhanced by the use of such methods and systems. The implication of ecological fallacy and other limitations of the current study are revealed.

  8. Dynamic structure and data sets of a GIS database for geological riskanalysis in the Azores volcanic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar, J. L.; Goulart, C.; Queiroz, G.; Silveira, D.; Gomes, A.

    2004-04-01

    Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, degassing phenomena and landslides, being the cause of thousands of deaths and severe damage and loss. To reduce the impact of future events it is necessary to improve the emergency response and reinforce land-use planning, and this has given rise to the development of AZORIS, a GIS database for risk analysis in the Azores. At present this computer-based system comprises nine main dynamic data sets where elemental, monitoring and historical data are grouped in layers of first and second order. The logical structure of the database was conceived in order to facilitate interactivity between data sets and to guarantee the evolution of the system, as determined by the input and the generation of new and more detailed information. Archive organization was designed taking into account regional and local aspects of geological hazard. In order to ensure consistency of the database and the quality of the data within it, an internal process of validation was included.

  9. Dynamics of inhomogeneous populations and global demography models

    OpenAIRE

    Karev, Georgy P.

    2005-01-01

    The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a distributed reproduction coefficient, the entire initial distribution of the coefficient should be used to investigate real population dynamics. In the general case, neither the average rate of growth nor the variance or any finite number of moments of the...

  10. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  11. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  12. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Lee, Harry F.; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368–1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China. PMID:28792976

  13. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  14. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortier, Frédéric; Rossi, Vivien; Guillot, Gilles

    2013-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely used to predict population dynamics, but when applied to species-rich ecosystems with many rare species, the small population sample sizes hinder a good fit of species-specific models. This issue can be overcome by assigning species to groups to increase the size...... species with similar population dynamics....

  15. Gis and public health

    CERN Document Server

    Cromley, Ellen K

    2011-01-01

    Authoritative and comprehensive, this is the leading text and professional resource on using geographic information systems (GIS) to analyze and address public health problems. Basic GIS concepts and tools are explained, including ways to access and manage spatial databases. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for mapping and analyzing data on population, health events, risk factors, and health services, and for incorporating geographical knowledge into planning and policy. Numerous maps, diagrams, and real-world applications are featured. The companion Web page provides lab exercises w

  16. Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pdnn Sirisena

    Full Text Available Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011 and R studio (2012 and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (p<0.0001. No positive correlation was observed between dengue incidence and temperature (p = 0.107 or humidity (p = 0.084. Rainfall prior to 2 and 5 months and a rise in the temperature prior to 9 months positively correlated with dengue incidence as based on the auto-correlation values. A rise in humidity prior to 1 month had a mild positive correlation with dengue incidence. However, a rise in humidity prior to 9 months had a significant negative correlation with dengue incidence based on the auto-correlation values. Remote sensing and GIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks.

  17. Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron E Darling

    2008-07-01

    represent the first characterization of genome arrangement evolution in a bacterial population evolving outside laboratory conditions. Insight into the process of genomic rearrangement may further the understanding of pathogen population dynamics and selection on the architecture of circular bacterial chromosomes.

  18. Neural Population Dynamics Underlying Motor Learning Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Saurabh; Even-Chen, Nir; Stavisky, Sergey D; Ryu, Stephen I; Nuyujukian, Paul; Shenoy, Krishna V

    2018-03-07

    Covert motor learning can sometimes transfer to overt behavior. We investigated the neural mechanism underlying transfer by constructing a two-context paradigm. Subjects performed cursor movements either overtly using arm movements, or covertly via a brain-machine interface that moves the cursor based on motor cortical activity (in lieu of arm movement). These tasks helped evaluate whether and how cortical changes resulting from "covert rehearsal" affect overt performance. We found that covert learning indeed transfers to overt performance and is accompanied by systematic population-level changes in motor preparatory activity. Current models of motor cortical function ascribe motor preparation to achieving initial conditions favorable for subsequent movement-period neural dynamics. We found that covert and overt contexts share these initial conditions, and covert rehearsal manipulates them in a manner that persists across context changes, thus facilitating overt motor learning. This transfer learning mechanism might provide new insights into other covert processes like mental rehearsal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. REAL TIME INTEGRATION OF FIELD DATA INTO A GIS PLATFORM FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL EMERGENCIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mangiameli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A wide series of events requires immediate availability of information and field data to be provided to decision-makers. An example is the necessity of quickly transferring the information acquired from monitoring and alerting sensors or the data of the reconnaissance of damage after a disastrous event to an Emergency Operations Center. To this purpose, we developed an integrated GIS and WebGIS system to dynamically create and populate via Web a database with spatial features. In particular, this work concerns the gathering and transmission of spatial data and related information to the desktop GIS so that they can be displayed and analyzed in real time to characterize the operational scenario and to decide the rescue interventions. As basic software, we used only free and open source: QuantumGIS and Grass as Desktop GIS, Map Server with PMapper application for the Web-Gis functionality and PostGreSQL/PostGIS as Data Base Management System (DBMS. The approach has been designed, developed and successfully tested in the management of GIS-based navigation of an autonomous robot, both to map its trajectories and to assign optimal paths. This paper presents the application of our system to a simulated hydrological event that could interest the province of Catania, in Sicily. In particular, assuming that more teams draw up an inventory of the damage, we highlight the benefits of real-time transmission of the information collected from the field to headquarters.

  20. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  1. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  2. GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASEDLAND USE LAND COVER DYNAMICS AT SEMIEN MOUNTAIS NATIONAL PARK Authors name: Gebreanenya Gebru Kidane, Email. gglove2000@gmail.com University of Gondar Phone.251 920 88 84 62

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidane, G. G., III; Belay, Y. G.; Kassa, B. A.; Yimam, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    ABSTRACT The main purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitude and rate of change of major land use/land cover types, and to identify the major drivers of change in SMNP using GIS and remote sensing. To address the pre-stated objective three landsat images of the periods between 1985, 2000 and 2015 with the time series of 15 (fifteen) years for the conceqative of 30 years land use land cover dynamics were classified and analyzed using Erdas Emagine 9.2 and ArcGIS 10 environments. The results depicted that a remarkable expansion was observed in forest cover followed by farmland and settlements between 1985 and 2015 by about 16% (22 ha/y) and 14.7% (21 ha/y) although some portions of their original extent were converted into other LUC classes. Expansion of forest cover was dominantly attributed to conversions of exposed rocks (1334.97 ha) and shrubs (1255.23 ha). These possibly attributed to conversion of some portions of exposed rocks and shrubs which were unsustainably utilized into protected areas by area closure and transformation of shrubs into forest cover. Similarly, farmlands and settlement has been expanded mainly due to area gains from grassland (984.51 ha) and forest cover (1037.25 ha). These largely associated with encroachment of farmlands and settlements into grasslands and original natural forest cover as a result of population pressure. The results also indicated that the reduction of areas under grassland, exposed volcanic rocks and shrubs by about 2.35% (5 ha/y), 18% (32 ha/y) and 11% (14 ha/y) evident because the added areas from other LUC classes could not compensate the losses, respectively. The major drivers identified in study area were civil war between 1984 and 1991 resulted in the agricultural exploitation, deforestation and illegal wildlife hunting, population pressure due to influx of settlers for the last decade. Finally revitalizing the nationally park is not only the duty of the government but also all the concerned individuals

  3. Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Review Of the interplay between population dynamics and malaria transmission in Ethiopia. Wakgari Deressa, Ahmed Ali, Yemane Berhane. Abstract. Background: The rapid growth of human population in malaria endemic areas has become a threat leading to the resurgence of the disease. Population growth and ...

  4. Leisure Today: Population Dynamics--The Changing Face of America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Diana R., Ed.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    A collection of articles examines the changing character of the American population and the importance of planning new recreation and leisure services to meet changing population needs. Included are discussions on demography and population dynamics; the effects of immigration; changing work and life styles; and changes in family structure and…

  5. [The effect of the new technological revolution on population dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, K

    1985-01-29

    The impact of modernization on population dynamics in China is examined. The author notes that the industrialization process involves the concentration of the population in urban areas and the mechanization of agriculture. The need to redistribute the urban population from major urban areas to smaller towns is noted.

  6. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  7. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in [BITS Pilani Hyderabad Campus, Shameerpet, Hyd - 500078 (India)

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  8. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  9. Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, W. I.; Sagan, C.

    1978-01-01

    The interstellar diffusion of galactic civilizations is reexamined by potential theory; both numerical and analytical solutions are derived for the nonlinear partial differential equations which specify a range of relevant models, drawn from blast wave physics, soil science, and, especially, population biology. An essential feature of these models is that, for all civilizations, population growth must be limited by the carrying capacity of the environment. Dispersal is fundamentally a diffusion process; a density-dependent diffusivity describes interstellar emigration. Two models are considered: the first describing zero population growth (ZPG), and the second which also includes local growth and saturation of a planetary population, and for which an asymptotic traveling wave solution is found.

  10. Seasonal population dynamics and energy consumption by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamiques saisonnières de population et consommation énergétique par les oiseaux aquatiques d'un petit estuaire tempéré De simples mesures des dynamiques de population et de consommation énergétique peuvent fournir des informations de base sur le rôle des consommateurs au sein des réseaux trophiques, ...

  11. Statistical dynamics of regional populations and economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Hao, Rui; Wang, Peng

    Quantitative analysis of human behavior and social development is becoming a hot spot of some interdisciplinary studies. A statistical analysis on the population and GDP of 150 cities in China from 1990 to 2013 is conducted. The result indicates the cumulative probability distribution of the populations and that of the GDPs obeying the shifted power law, respectively. In order to understand these characteristics, a generalized Langevin equation describing variation of population is proposed, which is based on the correlations between population and GDP as well as the random fluctuations of the related factors. The equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to express the evolution of population distribution. The general solution demonstrates a transition of the distribution from the normal Gaussian distribution to a shifted power law, which suggests a critical point of time at which the transition takes place. The shifted power law distribution in the supercritical situation is qualitatively in accordance with the practical result. The distribution of the GDPs is derived from the well-known Cobb-Douglas production function. The result presents a change, in supercritical situation, from a shifted power law to the Gaussian distribution. This is a surprising result-the regional GDP distribution of our world will be the Gaussian distribution one day in the future. The discussions based on the changing trend of economic growth suggest it will be true. Therefore, these theoretical attempts may draw a historical picture of our society in the aspects of population and economy.

  12. Population dynamics of estuarine amphipods in Cochin backwaters

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, K.K.C.; Gopalakrishnan, T.C.; Venugopal, P.; Peter, G.; Jayalakshmy, K.V.; Rao, T.S.S.

    Population dynamics of 11 gammarid amphipod species (belonging to 9 genera), collected from Cochin backwaters, have been studied for the first time, based on an year round collection. The species are : Corophium triaenonyx Stebbing, Photis digitata...

  13. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics : from teal to swans

    OpenAIRE

    Koons, D. N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, J. A.; Rotella, J. J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding of waterfowl population dynam...

  14. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  15. A linear model of population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  16. Population dynamics in rural South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugo, G J; Smailes, P J

    1992-01-01

    The authors examine recent trends in Australia in turnaround migration, or the movement of the population from urban to rural areas. "The paper assesses the major changes which have occurred in population trends within the non-metropolitan sector of the nation, South Australia and, in particular, a study area in the lower north region of South Australia. The analysis of the case study region draws upon a survey undertaken in 1968-1970 and partially replicated in 1980 and 1990. It appears that for Australia in general and for the study area the turnaround is continuing but at a slower pace and in a more spatially concentrated pattern." excerpt

  17. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    , the effects of climate change may potentially extend through any of these interactions. In this chapter, we focus on the extent to which evolutionarily distinct species at different trophic levels respond to similar changes in climate. By using a broad spectrum of statistically and ecologically founded...... and three out of five wader species, displayed significant direct density dependence. Only two species (sanderling and long-tailed skua) displayed dynamics characterised by delayed density dependence. The direct effects of previous winter's snow were related to over-wintering strategies of resident...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  18. Dynamics of a structured neuron population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakdaman, Khashayar; Salort, Delphine; Perthame, Benoît

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamics of assemblies of interacting neurons. For large fully connected networks, the dynamics of the system can be described by a partial differential equation reminiscent of age-structure models used in mathematical ecology, where the 'age' of a neuron represents the time elapsed since its last discharge. The nonlinearity arises from the connectivity J of the network. We prove some mathematical properties of the model that are directly related to qualitative properties. On the one hand, we prove that it is well-posed and that it admits stationary states which, depending upon the connectivity, can be unique or not. On the other hand, we study the long time behaviour of solutions; both for small and large J, we prove the relaxation to the steady state describing asynchronous firing of the neurons. In the middle range, numerical experiments show that periodic solutions appear expressing re-synchronization of the network and asynchronous firing

  19. Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita population dynamics in Central Poland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila W Franz

    Full Text Available When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

  20. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF THE WANDERING ALBATROSS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in several demographic parameters that appear to be influenced by both environmental and anthropogenic effects are described. From 1994–2001, the proportion of first-time breeders in the population was positively correlated with the maximum ENSO (Niño 3) index, whereas from 1984–2000 the annual survival ...

  1. Short Communication: Occurrence and Population Dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The dangerous tomato leaf miner pest (Tuta absoluta), which was reported to have crossed into Ethiopia via the Sudan in 2012, has scared tomato producing farmers across the country. Therefore, a study was conducted using pheromone traps to elucidate the occurrence of the insect pest and to monitor its population ...

  2. Nonlinear population dynamics in a bounded habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, E H; Anteneodo, C

    2018-02-27

    A key issue in ecology is whether a population will survive long term or go extinct. This is the question we address in this paper for a population in a bounded habitat. We will restrict our study to the case of a single species in a one-dimensional habitat of length L. The evolution of the population density distribution ρ(x, t), where x is the position and t the time, is governed by elementary processes such as growth and dispersal, which, in standard models, are typically described by a constant per capita growth rate and normal diffusion, respectively. However, feedbacks in the regulatory mechanisms and external factors can produce density-dependent rates. Therefore, we consider a generalization of the standard evolution equation, which, after dimensional scaling and assuming large carrying capacity, becomes ∂ t ρ=∂ x (ρ ν-1 ∂ x ρ)+ρ μ , where μ,ν∈R. This equation is complemented by absorbing boundaries, mimicking adverse conditions outside the habitat. For this nonlinear problem, we obtain, analytically, exact expressions of the critical habitat size L c for population survival, as a function of the exponents and initial conditions. We find that depending on the values of the exponents (ν, μ), population survival can occur for either L > L c , L < L c or for any L. This generalizes the usual statement that L c represents the minimum habitat size. In addition, nonlinearities introduce dependence on the initial conditions, affecting L c . Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallavaara, Miikka; Luoto, Miska; Korhonen, Natalia; Järvinen, Heikki; Seppä, Heikki

    2015-01-01

    The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000–19,000 y ago (27–19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30–13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe. PMID:26100880

  4. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESEARCH ARTICLE. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila. LAURENCE D. MUELLER1∗, AMITABH JOSHI1,2, MARTA SANTOS1 and MICHAEL R. ROSE1. 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.

  5. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  6. The frankincense tree of Ethiopia : ecology, productivity and population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eshete Wassie, A.

    2011-01-01

    Keywords: Boswellian papyrifera, Frankincense tree, matrix model, population dynamics,
    population bottleneck, tapping.

    Combretum – Terminalia woodlands and Acacia – Commiphora woodlands are the two
    dominant vegetation types that cover large parts of the dry land areas in

  7. Population dynamics of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics, including the sex ratio, reproductive period, individual growth and longevity, and population structure of the shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, are described. The shrimps were collected monthly from July 2005 to June 2007 at four sites in Ubatuba Bay, Brazil. The salinity, temperature, depth, organic ...

  8. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  9. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  10. Null controllability of a nonlinear population dynamics problem

    OpenAIRE

    Traore, Oumar

    2006-01-01

    We establish a null controllability result for a nonlinear population dynamics model. In our model, the birth term is nonlocal and describes the recruitment process in newborn individuals population. Using a derivation of Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem and Carleman inequality for the adjoint system, we show that for all given initial density, there exists an internal control acting on a small open set of the domain and leading the population to extinction.

  11. Population dynamics of metastable growth-rate phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S Moore

    Full Text Available Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations. Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the

  12. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  13. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  14. Dynamic Properties of the Alkaline Vesicle Population at Hippocampal Synapses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röther, Mareike; Brauner, Jan M.; Ebert, Katrin; Welzel, Oliver; Jung, Jasmin; Bauereiss, Anna; Kornhuber, Johannes; Groemer, Teja W.

    2014-01-01

    In compensatory endocytosis, scission of vesicles from the plasma membrane to the cytoplasm is a prerequisite for intravesicular reacidification and accumulation of neurotransmitter molecules. Here, we provide time-resolved measurements of the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population which appears upon endocytic retrieval. Using fast perfusion pH-cycling in live-cell microscopy, synapto-pHluorin expressing rat hippocampal neurons were electrically stimulated. We found that the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population depended significantly on the electrical stimulus size: With increasing number of action potentials the relative size of the alkaline vesicle population expanded. In contrast to that, increasing the stimulus frequency reduced the relative size of the population of alkaline vesicles. Measurement of the time constant for reacification and calculation of the time constant for endocytosis revealed that both time constants were variable with regard to the stimulus condition. Furthermore, we show that the dynamics of the alkaline vesicle population can be predicted by a simple mathematical model. In conclusion, here a novel methodical approach to analyze dynamic properties of alkaline vesicles is presented and validated as a convenient method for the detection of intracellular events. Using this method we show that the population of alkaline vesicles is highly dynamic and depends both on stimulus strength and frequency. Our results implicate that determination of the alkaline vesicle population size may provide new insights into the kinetics of endocytic retrieval. PMID:25079223

  15. Dynamical quorum sensing and clustering dynamics in a population of spatially distributed active rotators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hidetsugu; Maeyama, Satomi

    2013-02-01

    A model of clustering dynamics is proposed for a population of spatially distributed active rotators. A transition from excitable to oscillatory dynamics is induced by the increase of the local density of active rotators. It is interpreted as dynamical quorum sensing. In the oscillation regime, phase waves propagate without decay, which generates an effectively long-range interaction in the clustering dynamics. The clustering process becomes facilitated and only one dominant cluster appears rapidly as a result of the dynamical quorum sensing. An exact localized solution is found to a simplified model equation, and the competitive dynamics between two localized states is studied numerically.

  16. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  17. ASSESSMENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION TO THE RESULTS OF NATIONAL CENSUS 2002, 2010. IN THE REPUBLICS OF THE NORTH CAUCASUS: GIS APPROACHES AND METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. P. Turun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the dynamics of the rural population of the North Caucasus republics in 1989–2010 analyzes the differences of census data with the results of the current account of the population over two intercensal period. For obtaining the most accurate data in the rural population applies a correction factor the results of the census are considered critical, given the problems of its implementation.

  18. Itzï (version 17.1): an open-source, distributed GIS model for dynamic flood simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume Courty, Laurent; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Bates, Paul David

    2017-05-01

    Worldwide, floods are acknowledged as one of the most destructive hazards. In human-dominated environments, their negative impacts are ascribed not only to the increase in frequency and intensity of floods but also to a strong feedback between the hydrological cycle and anthropogenic development. In order to advance a more comprehensive understanding of this complex interaction, this paper presents the development of a new open-source tool named Itzï that enables the 2-D numerical modelling of rainfall-runoff processes and surface flows integrated with the open-source geographic information system (GIS) software known as GRASS. Therefore, it takes advantage of the ability given by GIS environments to handle datasets with variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the presented numerical tool can handle datasets from different sources with varied spatial resolutions, facilitating the preparation and management of input and forcing data. This ability reduces the preprocessing time usually required by other models. Itzï uses a simplified form of the shallow water equations, the damped partial inertia equation, for the resolution of surface flows, and the Green-Ampt model for the infiltration. The source code is now publicly available online, along with complete documentation. The numerical model is verified against three different tests cases: firstly, a comparison with an analytic solution of the shallow water equations is introduced; secondly, a hypothetical flooding event in an urban area is implemented, where results are compared to those from an established model using a similar approach; and lastly, the reproduction of a real inundation event that occurred in the city of Kingston upon Hull, UK, in June 2007, is presented. The numerical approach proved its ability at reproducing the analytic and synthetic test cases. Moreover, simulation results of the real flood event showed its suitability at identifying areas affected by flooding

  19. Generational Spreading Speed and the Dynamics of Population Range Expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Andrew W; Neubert, Michael G; Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Some of the most fundamental quantities in population ecology describe the growth and spread of populations. Population dynamics are often characterized by the annual rate of increase, λ, or the generational rate of increase, R0. Analyses involving R0 have deepened our understanding of disease dynamics and life-history complexities beyond that afforded by analysis of annual growth alone. While range expansion is quantified by the annual spreading speed, a spatial analog of λ, an R0-like expression for the rate of spread is missing. Using integrodifference models, we derive the appropriate generational spreading speed for populations with complex (stage-structured) life histories. The resulting measure, relevant to locations near the expanding edge of a (re)colonizing population, incorporates both local population growth and explicit spatial dispersal rather than solely growth across a population, as is the case for R0. The calculations for generational spreading speed are often simpler than those for annual spreading speed, and analytic or partial analytic solutions can yield insight into the processes that facilitate or slow a population's spatial spread. We analyze the spatial dynamics of green crabs, sea otters, and teasel as examples to demonstrate the flexibility of our methods and the intuitive insights that they afford.

  20. EpiScanGIS: an online geographic surveillance system for meningococcal disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Jürgen

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Surveillance of infectious diseases increasingly relies on Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The integration of pathogen fine typing data in dynamic systems and visualization of spatio-temporal clusters are a technical challenge for system development. Results An online geographic information system (EpiScanGIS based on open source components has been launched in Germany in May 2006 for real time provision of meningococcal typing data in conjunction with demographic information (age, incidence, population density. Spatio-temporal clusters of disease detected by computer assisted cluster analysis (SaTScan™ are visualized on maps. EpiScanGIS enables dynamic generation of animated maps. The system is based on open source components; its architecture is open for other infectious agents and geographic regions. EpiScanGIS is available at http://www.episcangis.org, and currently has 80 registered users, mostly from the public health service in Germany. At present more than 2,900 cases of invasive meningococcal disease are stored in the database (data as of June 3, 2008. Conclusion EpiScanGIS exemplifies GIS applications and early-warning systems in laboratory surveillance of infectious diseases.

  1. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life-history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco-evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within-individual and among-individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life-history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal-tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within-population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year-round residence, generating diverse forms of 'partial migration' spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year-round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio-temporal population dynamics, we define a 'partially migratory meta-population' system as a spatially structured set of locations that can

  2. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  3. Co-infection alters population dynamics of infectious disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susi, Hanna; Barrès, Benoit; Vale, Pedro F.; Laine, Anna-Liisa

    2015-01-01

    Co-infections by multiple pathogen strains are common in the wild. Theory predicts co-infections to have major consequences for both within- and between-host disease dynamics, but data are currently scarce. Here, using common garden populations of Plantago lanceolata infected by two strains of the pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis, either singly or under co-infection, we find the highest disease prevalence in co-infected treatments both at the host genotype and population levels. A spore-trapping experiment demonstrates that co-infected hosts shed more transmission propagules than singly infected hosts, thereby explaining the observed change in epidemiological dynamics. Our experimental findings are confirmed in natural pathogen populations—more devastating epidemics were measured in populations with higher levels of co-infection. Jointly, our results confirm the predictions made by theoretical and experimental studies for the potential of co-infection to alter disease dynamics across a large host–pathogen metapopulation. PMID:25569306

  4. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    . Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life......Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom......-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue...

  5. Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-09

    extinction . VI. CONCLUSIONS We have presented a method for predicting extinction in stochastic network systems by analyzing a pair-based proxy model...including games on networks (e.g., [40], [41]). Further, we expect that our method of continuously varying a parameter while tracking the path to extinction ...Adaptive Dynamics, Control, and Extinction in Networked Populations Ira B. Schwartz US Naval Research Laboratory Code 6792 Nonlinear System Dynamics

  6. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do.

  7. Trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis cases in a highly-endemic focus of Bihar, India: an investigation based on GIS tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Rakesh; Kesari, Shreekant; Kumar, Vijay; Das, Pradeep

    2018-04-02

    Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Bihar State (India) continues to be endemic, despite the existence of effective treatment and a vector control program to control disease morbidity. A clear understanding of spatio-temporal distribution of VL may improve surveillance and control implementation. This study explored the trends in spatio-temporal dynamics of VL endemicity at a meso-scale level in Vaishali District, based on geographical information systems (GIS) tools and spatial statistical analysis. A GIS database was used to integrate the VL case data from the study area between 2009 and 2014. All cases were spatially linked at a meso-scale level. Geospatial techniques, such as GIS-layer overlaying and mapping, were employed to visualize and detect the spatio-temporal patterns of a VL endemic outbreak across the district. The spatial statistic Moran's I Index (Moran's I) was used to simultaneously evaluate spatial-correlation between endemic villages and the spatial distribution patterns based on both the village location and the case incidence rate (CIR). Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard error, confidence intervals and percentages were used to summarize the VL case data. There were 624 endemic villages with 2719 (average 906 cases/year) VL cases during 2012-2014. The Moran's I revealed a cluster pattern (P < 0.05) of CIR distribution at the meso-scale level. On average, 68 villages were newly-endemic each year. Of which 93.1% of villages' endemicity were found to have occurred on the peripheries of the previous year endemic villages. The mean CIR of the endemic villages that were peripheral to the following year newly-endemic villages, compared to all endemic villages of the same year, was higher (P < 0.05). The results show that the VL endemicity of new villages tends to occur on the periphery of villages endemic in the previous year. High-CIR plays a major role in the spatial dispersion of the VL cases between non-endemic and endemic villages

  8. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  9. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  10. Southeastern USA regional landscape patterns and population dynamics of the stink bug, Euchistus servus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Introduction: The brown stink bug, Euschistus servus is an economically important pest of many agronomic crops in the southern USA, motivating the study of factors influencing population build-up in agricultural regions and landscapes to facilitate management. Methods: ArcGIS was used to characteriz...

  11. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  12. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  13. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John M; Bieri, Joanna A; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia E; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Erickson, Richard A; Norris, D Ryan

    2018-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  14. Population dynamics in the capitalist world-economy

    OpenAIRE

    Danna, D.

    2014-01-01

    World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s) of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intention...

  15. Technological change, population dynamics, and natural resource depletion

    OpenAIRE

    Schaefer, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we integrate fertility and educational choices into a scale-invariant model of directed technological change with non-renewable natural resources, in order to reveal the interaction between population dynamics, technological change, and natural resource depletion. In line with empirical regularities, skill-biased technological change induces a decline in population growth and a transitory increase in the depletion rate of natural resources. In the long-run, the depletion rate a...

  16. Applying GIS and fine-resolution digital terrain models to assess three-dimensional population distribution under traffic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chih-Da; Lung, Shih-Chun Candice

    2012-01-01

    Pollution exhibits significant variations horizontally and vertically within cities; therefore, the size and three-dimensional (3D) spatial distribution of population are significant determinants of urban health. This paper presents a novel methodology, 3D digital geography (3DIG) methodology, for investigating 3D spatial distributions of population in close proximity to traffic, thus the potential highly exposed population under traffic impacts. 3DIG applies geographic information system and fine-resolution (5 m) digital terrain models to obtain the number of building floors in residential zones of the Taipei metropolis; the vertical distribution of population at different floors was estimated based on demographic data in each census tract. In addition, population within 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 m from the roadways was estimated. Field validation indicated that model results were reliable and accurate; the final population estimation differs only by 0.88% from the demographic database. The results showed that among the total 6.5 million Taipei residents, 0.8 (12.3%), 1.5 (22.9%), 2.3 (34.9), and 2.7 (41.1%) million residents live on the first or second floor within 5, 10, 20, and 50 m, respectively, of municipal roads. There are 22 census tracts with more than half of their residents living on the first or second floor within 5 m of municipal roads. In addition, half of the towns in Taipei city and county with >13.9% and 12.1% of residents live on the first and second floors within 5 m of municipal roads, respectively. These findings highlight the huge number of Taipei residents in close proximity to traffic and have significant implications for exposure assessment and environmental epidemiological studies. This study demonstrates that 3DIG is a versatile methodology for various research and policy planning in which 3D spatial population distribution is the central focus.

  17. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) w...

  18. [Spatial distribution characteristics of urban potential population in Shenyang City based on QuickBird image and GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun-Ying; Hu, Yuan-Man; Chen, Wei; Liu, Miao; Hu, Jian-Bo; Zhong, Qiao-Lin; Lu, Ning

    2012-06-01

    Population is the most active factor affecting city development. To understand the distribution characteristics of urban population is of significance for making city policy decisions and for optimizing the layout of various urban infrastructures. In this paper, the information of the residential buildings in Shenyang urban area was extracted from the QuickBird remote sensing images, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the population within the Third-Ring Road of the City were analyzed, according to the social and economic statistics data. In 2010, the population density in different types of residential buildings within the Third-Ring Road of the City decreased in the order of high-storey block, mixed block, mixed garden, old multi-storey building, high-storey garden, multi-storey block, multi-storey garden, villa block, shanty, and villa garden. The vacancy rate of the buildings within the Third-Ring Road was more than 30%, meaning that the real estate market was seriously overstocked. Among the five Districts of Shenyang City, Shenhe District had the highest potential population density, while Tiexi District and Dadong District had a lower one. The gravity center of the City and its five Districts was also analyzed, which could provide basic information for locating commercial facilities and planning city infrastructure.

  19. Driving Forces of Dynamic Changes in Soil Erosion in the Dahei Mountain Ecological Restoration Area of Northern China Based on GIS and RS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Gao, Peng; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic change in soil erosion is an important focus of regional ecological restoration research. Here, the dynamic changes of soil erosion and its driving forces in the Dahei Mountain ecological restoration area of northern China were analyzed by LANDSAT TM remote sensing captured via geographic information system (GIS) technologies during three typical periods in 2004, 2008 and 2013. The results showed the following: (1) a decrease in intensive erosion and moderate erosion areas, as well as an increase in light erosion areas, was observed during two periods: one from 2004 to 2008 and the other from 2008 to 2013. (2) Between 2004 and 2008, the variation in the range of slight erosion was the largest (24.28%), followed by light erosion and intensive erosion; between 2008 and 2013, the variation in the range of intensive erosion area was the largest (9.89%), followed by slight erosion and moderate erosion. (3) Socioeconomic impact, accompanied by natural environmental factors, was the main driving force underlying the change in soil erosion within the ecological restoration area. In particular, the socioeconomic factors of per capita forest area and land reclamation rate, as well as the natural environmental factor of terrain slope, significantly influenced soil erosion changes within the ecological restoration area.

  20. Driving Forces of Dynamic Changes in Soil Erosion in the Dahei Mountain Ecological Restoration Area of Northern China Based on GIS and RS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Gao, Peng; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic change in soil erosion is an important focus of regional ecological restoration research. Here, the dynamic changes of soil erosion and its driving forces in the Dahei Mountain ecological restoration area of northern China were analyzed by LANDSAT TM remote sensing captured via geographic information system (GIS) technologies during three typical periods in 2004, 2008 and 2013. The results showed the following: (1) a decrease in intensive erosion and moderate erosion areas, as well as an increase in light erosion areas, was observed during two periods: one from 2004 to 2008 and the other from 2008 to 2013. (2) Between 2004 and 2008, the variation in the range of slight erosion was the largest (24.28%), followed by light erosion and intensive erosion; between 2008 and 2013, the variation in the range of intensive erosion area was the largest (9.89%), followed by slight erosion and moderate erosion. (3) Socioeconomic impact, accompanied by natural environmental factors, was the main driving force underlying the change in soil erosion within the ecological restoration area. In particular, the socioeconomic factors of per capita forest area and land reclamation rate, as well as the natural environmental factor of terrain slope, significantly influenced soil erosion changes within the ecological restoration area. PMID:26981637

  1. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  2. Population Dynamics of the East African Sleeping Sickness ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mathematical models of the East African sleeping sickness epidemiology are presented. This paper is aimed at modelling the dynamics of the disease as it affects the human and domestic animal populations. The mathematical model is extended to include the contact rate of the tsetse flies with the wild park animals that ...

  3. The Onchorcerciasis Disease: Population Dynamics of Its Host And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Onchocerciasis disease is a debilitating disease that hampers the well-being and productive capacity of an affected person. In this work, we looked at the population dynamics of the Host (Man), the Vector (Simulium Damnosium – the Blackfly ) and the possible Microfilaria output of the worm in the Host via Mathematical ...

  4. Population Dynamics of the Giant African River Prawn ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Growth, mortality, recruitment, yield-per-recruit and present rate of exploitation of the African river prawn Macrobrachium vollenhovenii were ... The present study is the first report on the population dynamics of the species in the Cross River Estuary,. Nigeria, and provides ..... Sea Demersal Fish Comm. 1979/G/24, 26 pp.

  5. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The alien invasive Gambusia affinis is one of the most widely introduced fish species on the planet, and has established in freshwater ecosystems across South Africa. The invasion ecology and, in particular, the population dynamics of the species in this country are, however, poorly understood. In this study the relative ...

  6. Binary Populations and Stellar Dynamics in Young Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanbeveren, D.; Belkus, H.; Van Bever, J.; Mennekens, N.

    2008-06-01

    We first summarize work that has been done on the effects of binaries on theoretical population synthesis of stars and stellar phenomena. Next, we highlight the influence of stellar dynamics in young clusters by discussing a few candidate UFOs (unconventionally formed objects) like intermediate mass black holes, η Car, ζ Pup, γ2 Velorum and WR 140.

  7. Population Dynamics of Southern Pine Beetle in Forest Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew Birt

    2011-01-01

    Southern pine beetle (SPB) is an important pest of Southeastern United States pine forests. Periodic regional outbreaks are characterized by localized areas of tree mortality (infestations) surrounded by areas with little or no damage. Ultimately, this spatiotemporal pattern of tree mortality is driven by the dynamics of SPB populations—more specifically, by rates of...

  8. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Termites have been identified as one of the major pests of cassava in Nigeria especially on infested soils. Termite Population Dynamics in Arenic Kandiudults as Influenced by Tillage and Organic Manure Sources in a Cassava Farm in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria, was investigated in this study. Three years of field trials ...

  9. Breeding seasonality and population dynamics of the catfish Schilbe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Twelve consecutive months length frequency data (N = 6999) and FiSAT software were used in the study of the dynamics of exploited population the catfish Schilbe mystus in the Cross River Nigeria. Variation in monthly mean gonadosmtic index showed two peaks, March and September and this indicates that the species ...

  10. The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod Exosphaeroma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The population dynamics of the estuarine isopod, Exosphaeroma hylocoetes, was investigated monthly from February 2006 to August 2007 in three temporarily open/closed Eastern Cape estuaries, the East and West Kleinemonde and Kasouga Estuaries. Mean isopod abundances and biomasses ranged between 0 and ...

  11. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  12. COMPARISON OF SAMPLING TECHNIQUES USED IN STUDYING LEPIDOPTERA POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Four methods (light traps, foliage samples, canvas bands, and gypsy moth egg mass surveys) that are used to study the population dynamics of foliage-feeding Lepidoptera were compared for 10 species, including gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L. Samples were collected weekly at 12 sit...

  13. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus thuringiensis in agricultural and botanic garden soils of India. ... The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader). If you would like more information about ...

  14. Population dynamics and spatial behaviour of Microtus tatricus (Arvicolinae, Rodentia)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rudá, M.; Kocian, Ľ.; Martínková, Natália; Žiak, D.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 1 (2010), s. 85-88 ISSN 0001-7051 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : Tatra vole * population dynamics * spatial activity Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.985, year: 2010

  15. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  16. Predicting population and community dynamics: the type of aggregation matters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, K.; Schiffers, T.; Münkemüller, T.; Schädler, M.; Calabrese, J.; Basset, A.; Breulmann, M.; Duquesne, S.; Hidding, B.; Huth, A.; Schöb, C.; Voorde, van de T.F.J.

    2010-01-01

    When investigating complex ecological dynamics at the population or community level, we necessarily need to abstract and aggregate ecological information. The way in which information is aggregated may be crucial for the outcome of the study. In this paper, we suggest that in addition to the

  17. Inmate Population Dynamics at the United States Disciplinary Barracks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-04

    Prisoner population growth. 2. Prisoner popula- . tion forecasting. 3. Military prisoner overcrowding at USDB. 4. Elements of prisoner population . 5...of decisions in the Army. This thesis was initiated as a result not of overwhelming problems of overcrowding or of any particular problems or crises...AUG 83 UNCLASSIFIED F/il 5/9 N 12.2 Ln 1,6 1 2 .0 I~ii~ L 111U2 ICROCOP RSLUINTSCHR NAIOALBUEA F TAD336 1%- 2> Inmate Population Dynamics at the United

  18. Radial propagation in population dynamics with density-dependent diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2014-01-01

    Population dynamics that evolve in a radial symmetric geometry are investigated. The nonlinear reaction-diffusion model, which depends on population density, is employed as the governing equation for this system. The approximate analytical solution to this equation is found. It shows that the population density evolves from the initial state and propagates in a traveling-wave-like manner for a long-time scale. If the distance is insufficiently long, the curvature has an ineluctable influence on the density profile and front speed. In comparison, the analytical solution is in agreement with the numerical solution.

  19. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Population dynamics of king eiders breeding in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    The North American population of king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) has declined by more than 50% since the late 1970s for unknown reasons. King eiders spend most of their lives in remote areas, forcing managers to make regulatory and conservation decisions based on very little information. We incorporated available published estimates of vital rates with new estimates to build a female, stage-based matrix population model for king eiders and examine the processes underlying population dynamics of king eiders breeding at 2 sites, Teshekpuk and Kuparuk, on the coastal plain of northern Alaska and wintering around the Bering Sea (2001–2010). We predicted a decreasing population (λ = 0.981, 95% CI: 0.978–0.985), and that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival (sensitivity = 0.92). Low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity (variation in ducking survival accounted for 66% of retrospective variation in λ). Adult survival was high (0.94) and invariant (σ = 0.0002, 95% CI: 0.0000–0.0007); however, catastrophic events could have a major impact and we need to consider how to mitigate and manage threats to adult survival. A hypothetical oil spill affecting breeding females in a primary spring staging area resulted in a severe population decline; although, transient population dynamics were relatively stable. However, if no catastrophic events occur, the more variable reproductive parameters (duckling and nest survival) may be more responsive to management actions.

  1. Disentangling seasonal bacterioplankton population dynamics by high-frequency sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindh, Markus V; Sjöstedt, Johanna; Andersson, Anders F; Baltar, Federico; Hugerth, Luisa W; Lundin, Daniel; Muthusamy, Saraladevi; Legrand, Catherine; Pinhassi, Jarone

    2015-07-01

    Multiyear comparisons of bacterioplankton succession reveal that environmental conditions drive community shifts with repeatable patterns between years. However, corresponding insight into bacterioplankton dynamics at a temporal resolution relevant for detailed examination of variation and characteristics of specific populations within years is essentially lacking. During 1 year, we collected 46 samples in the Baltic Sea for assessing bacterial community composition by 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing (nearly twice weekly during productive season). Beta-diversity analysis showed distinct clustering of samples, attributable to seemingly synchronous temporal transitions among populations (populations defined by 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence identity). A wide spectrum of bacterioplankton dynamics was evident, where divergent temporal patterns resulted both from pronounced differences in relative abundance and presence/absence of populations. Rates of change in relative abundance calculated for individual populations ranged from 0.23 to 1.79 day(-1) . Populations that were persistently dominant, transiently abundant or generally rare were found in several major bacterial groups, implying evolution has favoured a similar variety of life strategies within these groups. These findings suggest that high temporal resolution sampling allows constraining the timescales and frequencies at which distinct populations transition between being abundant or rare, thus potentially providing clues about physical, chemical or biological forcing on bacterioplankton community structure. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  3. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  4. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  5. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  6. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M.; Wang, Long

    2014-01-01

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics. PMID:24598208

  7. Past and present population dynamics of narwhals Monodon monoceros

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva

    , meat and mattak. Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of the hunt, which have led to implementation of hunting quotas in both countries. Hunting quotas are usually calculated from population dynamics models where survival and reproductive rates, based on reliable age distributions...... of both marine and terrestrial mammals, although the technique still requires both optimization and further validation. In addition, the thesis includes a study of past population dynamics in narwhals. We have investigated the genetic response to climate change and the emographic history of the narwhal......, are vital. Estimation of life history parameters for the narwhal has previously been hindered by lack of a reliable age estimation technique. The Aspartic Acid Racemization (AAR) technique is a relatively novel method that I have applied to narwhals. This PhD thesis focuses, in part, on current population...

  8. A Population-Based Case-Control Study of Drinking-Water Nitrate and Congenital Anomalies Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to Develop Individual-Level Exposure Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtby, Caitlin E.; Guernsey, Judith R.; Allen, Alexander C.; VanLeeuwen, John A.; Allen, Victoria M.; Gordon, Robert J.

    2014-01-01

    Animal studies and epidemiological evidence suggest an association between prenatal exposure to drinking water with elevated nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations and incidence of congenital anomalies. This study used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to derive individual-level prenatal drinking-water nitrate exposure estimates from measured nitrate concentrations from 140 temporally monitored private wells and 6 municipal water supplies. Cases of major congenital anomalies in Kings County, Nova Scotia, Canada, between 1988 and 2006 were selected from province-wide population-based perinatal surveillance databases and matched to controls from the same databases. Unconditional multivariable logistic regression was performed to test for an association between drinking-water nitrate exposure and congenital anomalies after adjusting for clinically relevant risk factors. Employing all nitrate data there was a trend toward increased risk of congenital anomalies for increased nitrate exposure levels though this was not statistically significant. After stratification of the data by conception before or after folic acid supplementation, an increased risk of congenital anomalies for nitrate exposure of 1.5–5.56 mg/L (2.44; 1.05–5.66) and a trend toward increased risk for >5.56 mg/L (2.25; 0.92–5.52) was found. Though the study is likely underpowered, these results suggest that drinking-water nitrate exposure may contribute to increased risk of congenital anomalies at levels below the current Canadian maximum allowable concentration. PMID:24503976

  9. A GIS analysis of suitability for construction aggregate recycling sites using regional transportation network and population density features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, G.R.; Kapo, K.E.

    2004-01-01

    Aggregate is used in road and building construction to provide bulk, strength, support, and wear resistance. Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and reclaimed Portland cement concrete (RPCC) are abundant and available sources of recycled aggregate. In this paper, current aggregate production operations in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia are used to develop spatial association models for the recycled aggregate industry with regional transportation network and population density features. The cost of construction aggregate to the end user is strongly influenced by the cost of transporting processed aggregate from the production site to the construction site. More than 60% of operations recycling aggregate in the mid-Atlantic study area are located within 4.8 km (3 miles) of an interstate highway. Transportation corridors provide both sites of likely road construction where aggregate is used and an efficient means to move both materials and on-site processing equipment back and forth from various work sites to the recycling operations. Urban and developing areas provide a high market demand for aggregate and a ready source of construction debris that may be processed into recycled aggregate. Most aggregate recycling operators in the study area are sited in counties with population densities exceeding 77 people/km2 (200 people/mile 2). No aggregate recycling operations are sited in counties with less than 19 people/km2 (50 people/mile2), reflecting the lack of sufficient long-term sources of construction debris to be used as an aggregate source, as well as the lack of a sufficient market demand for aggregate in most rural areas to locate a recycling operation there or justify the required investment in the equipment to process and produce recycled aggregate. Weights of evidence analyses (WofE), measuring correlation on an area-normalized basis, and weighted logistic regression (WLR), are used to model the distribution of RAP and RPCC operations relative

  10. Assessing Land Management Changes and Population Dynamics in Central Burkina Faso in Response to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabore Bontogho, P. E.; Boubacar, I.; Afouda, A.; Joerg, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing landscape and population's dynamics at watershed level contribute to address anthropogenic aspect of climate change issue owing to the close link between LULC and climate changes. The objective of this study is to explore the dependencies of population to land management changes in Massili basin (2612 km²) located in central Burkina Faso. A set of three satellite scenes was acquired for the years 1990 (Landsat 7 ETM), 2002 (Landsat 7 ETM+) and 2013 (Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS) from the Global Land Cover Facility's (GLCF) website. Census data were provided by the National institute of statistics and demographic (INSD). The satellites images were classified using object-oriented classification method which was supported by historic maps and field data. Those were collected in order to allow for class definition, verification and accuracy assessments. Based on the developed land use maps, change analysis was carried out using post classification comparison in GIS. Finally, derived land use changes were compared with census data in order to explore links between population dynamics and the land use changes. It was found in 1990 that Massili watershed LULC was dominated by Tree/shrub savannah (69%, 1802.28 km2 ), Farm/Fallow was representing 22%, Gallery forest (4%), Settlement (3%), Barre soil (1%), Water bodies (1%). In 2002, the major landscape was Farm (54%). Tree/Shrub savannas were reduced to 36% while the Gallery Forest was decreased to1% of the basin area. The situation has also slightly changed in 2013 with an increase of the area devoted to farm/fallow and settlement at a rate of 3% and Gallery forest has increased to 4%. The changes in land use are in agreement with a notable increase in population. The analysis of census data showed that the number of inhabitants increased from 338 inhabitants per km2 in 1990 to 1150 inhabitants per km2 in 2013. As shown by statistical analysis (Kendall correlation tau=0.9), there is a close relation between both dynamics.

  11. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  12. Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah

    2010-06-01

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.

  13. Population Dynamics of the Stationary Phase Utilizing the ARGOS Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algarni, S.; Charest, A. J.; Iannacchione, G. S.

    2015-03-01

    The Area Recorded Generalized Optical Scattering (ARGOS) approach to light scattering employs large image capture array allowing for a well-defined geometry in which images may be manipulated to extract structure with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector (I(q)) and dynamics with intensity at a specific scattering wave vector over time (I (q,t)). The ARGOS method provides morphological dynamics noninvasively over a long time period and allows for a variety of aqueous conditions. This is important because traditional growth models do not provide for conditions similar to the natural environment. The present study found that the population dynamics of bacteria do not follow a traditional growth model and that the ARGOS method allowed for the observation of bacterial changes in terms of individual particles and population dynamics in real time. The observations of relative total intensity suggest that there is no stationary phase and that the bacterial population demonstrates sinusoidal type patterns consistently subsequent to the log phase growth. These observation were compared to shape changes by modeling fractal dimension and size changes by modeling effective radius.

  14. Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lambert, Gwladys; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Larsen, Lena I.

    2009-01-01

    The population dynamics of the Norway pout stock in the North Sea are investigated by statistical analyses, and GIS of ICES International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) and Danish commercial catch data from 1983 to 2006. The stock spawns mainly around mid-February along the northeastern English...... should be taken into account when estimating spawning-stock biomass in routine assessments. Growth is also variable, with a tendency for male maximum length to be smaller than that of females, and immature fish to be smaller than mature ones in each age group. The juvenile growth rate is higher when...... the stock density is low and results in a reduced age-at-50%-maturity. Besides these intraspecific patterns, the growth rates show interspecific links to stock sizes of the important predators: cod, haddock, and whiting....

  15. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  16. Changes in population dynamics in mutualistic versus pathogenic viruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roossinck, Marilyn J

    2011-01-01

    Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis) have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  17. Lineage grammars: describing, simulating and analyzing population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiro, Adam; Cardelli, Luca; Shapiro, Ehud

    2014-07-21

    Precise description of the dynamics of biological processes would enable the mathematical analysis and computational simulation of complex biological phenomena. Languages such as Chemical Reaction Networks and Process Algebras cater for the detailed description of interactions among individuals and for the simulation and analysis of ensuing behaviors of populations. However, often knowledge of such interactions is lacking or not available. Yet complete oblivion to the environment would make the description of any biological process vacuous. Here we present a language for describing population dynamics that abstracts away detailed interaction among individuals, yet captures in broad terms the effect of the changing environment, based on environment-dependent Stochastic Tree Grammars (eSTG). It is comprised of a set of stochastic tree grammar transition rules, which are context-free and as such abstract away specific interactions among individuals. Transition rule probabilities and rates, however, can depend on global parameters such as population size, generation count, and elapsed time. We show that eSTGs conveniently describe population dynamics at multiple levels including cellular dynamics, tissue development and niches of organisms. Notably, we show the utilization of eSTG for cases in which the dynamics is regulated by environmental factors, which affect the fate and rate of decisions of the different species. eSTGs are lineage grammars, in the sense that execution of an eSTG program generates the corresponding lineage trees, which can be used to analyze the evolutionary and developmental history of the biological system under investigation. These lineage trees contain a representation of the entire events history of the system, including the dynamics that led to the existing as well as to the extinct individuals. We conclude that our suggested formalism can be used to easily specify, simulate and analyze complex biological systems, and supports modular

  18. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Dalkvist

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis, we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. SIGNIFICANCE: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results

  19. Remotely Sensing Larval Population Dynamics of Rice Field Anophelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Dister, Sheri W.; Wood, Byron L.; Washino, Robert K.

    1997-01-01

    The primary objective of both studies was to determine if RS and GIS techniques could be used to distinguish between high and low larval-producing rice fields in California. Results of the first study suggested that early-season green-up and proximity to livestock pastures were positively correlated with high larval abundance. Based on the early-season spectral differences between high and low larval-producing fields, it appeared that canopy development and tillering influenced mosquito habitat quality. At that time, rice fields consisted of a mixture of plants and water, a combination that allowed An. freeborni females to lay eggs in partial sunlight, protected from both predators and wind. This established a population earlier in the season than in other, 'less-green' fields where tillering and plant emergence was too minimal for ovipositioning. The study also indicated the importance of the distance that a mosquito would have to fly in order to take a bloodmeal prior to ovipositing. These associations were fully explored in an expanded study two years later. The second study confirmed the positive relationship between early season canopy development and larval abundance, and also demonstrated the relationship between abundance and distance-to-pasture. The association between greenness (as measured using NDVI), distance-to-pasture, and abundance is illustrated. The second study also indicated the siginificance of the landscape context of rice fields for larval production. Fields that included opportunities for feeding and resting within the flight range of the mosquito had higher abundances than did fields that were in a homogeneous rice area.

  20. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  1. The population dynamics of bacteria, phage and RM Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guet, Calin; Levin, Bruce; Pleska, Maros

    Viruses drive and mediate bacterial evolution as parasites and vectors of horizontal gene transfer, respectively. Temperate bacteriophages, defined by the ability to lysogenize a fraction of hosts and to transmit horizontally as well as vertically in the form of prophages, frequently carry genes that increase fitness or contribute to bacterial pathogenicity. Restriction-modification (RM) systems, which are widely diverse and ubiquitous among bacteria, can prevent infections leading to lysis, but their effect on lysogeny is not clear. We show that RM systems prevent lytic and lysogenic infections to the same extent and therefore represent a molecular barrier to prophage acquisition. Surprisingly, we find that this negative effect can be overcome and even reversed at the population level, as a consequence of dynamic interactions between viruses, hosts and RM systems. Thus the population dynamics of bacteria carrying RM systems impacts bacterial genome-wide evolution. .

  2. Dynamics of N-person snowdrift games in structured populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Marta D; Pinheiro, Flávio L; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2012-12-21

    In many real-life situations, the completion of a task by a group toward achieving a common goal requires the cooperation of at least some of its members, who share the required workload. Such cases are conveniently modeled by the N-person snowdrift game, an example of a Public Goods Game. Here we study how an underlying network of contacts affects the evolutionary dynamics of collective action modeled in terms of such a Public Goods Game. We analyze the impact of different types of networks in the global, population-wide dynamics of cooperators and defectors. We show that homogeneous social structures enhance the chances of coordinating toward stable levels of cooperation, while heterogeneous network structures create multiple internal equilibria, departing significantly from the reference scenario of a well-mixed, structureless population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  4. Development of paradigms for the dynamics of structured populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-10-01

    This is a technical progress report on the dynamics of predator-prey systems in a patchy environment. A new phenomenon that might contribute to outbreaks in systems of discrete patches has been determined using a discrete time model with both spatial and age structure. A model for a single species in a patchy environment with migration, local population growth and disasters with in patches has been formulated and a brief description is included.

  5. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  6. Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Freire

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

  7. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  8. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  9. [Analysis on age structure and dynamics of Kindonia uniflora populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenhui; Li, Jingxia; Li, Hong; Liu, Xiangjun

    2004-04-01

    Kindonia uniflora is a perennial clone herbaceous plant, and also, a native endangered plant in China. This paper studied its age structure, life table and survivorship curve in different habitats in Taibai mountain area. The results indicated that the age structure and dynamics of K. uniflora populations in the Betula utilis forest at altitude 2500-2700 m, in the Abies fargesii forest at altitude 2700-2900 m, and in the Larix chinensis forest at altitude 2900-3100 m had the similar pattern and developing tendency. The number of younger ramets at 1-2 years old or older than 5 years was less, and the number of ramets at 3-5 years old was the highest in the age structures. The negative values of dx (dead number), qx (mortality rate) and Kx (Killing rate) in the life table showed the increasing rate of the population sizes during the age stage. The survivorship curve of K. uniflora populations in different habitats belonged to Deevey C after 3-5 years old. The mortality rate of populations during 5-10 years stage was higher, and was stable after 10 years old. As for the characters of asexual propagation and clone growth, the rhizomes of the populations were in humus of soil, and developed and expanded as guerilla line style. During growth season, only one leaf grew above ground at every inter-node, and the population growth and development were rarely influenced by external factors. The forest communities, such as Betula utilis, Abies fargesii and Larix chinensis forest, in which K. uniflora populations lived, were at middle or higher mountain, where there were rarely disturbance from human being. Therefore, the habitats for K. uniflora populations to live were relatively stable. As the altitude increased, the disturbances from human being became less, the density of K. uniflora populations increased, the life cycle expanded, the peak of population death delayed, and the population living strategy changed to adapt to the habitats. K. uniflora populations preferred to

  10. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  11. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  12. Introduction to the Special Issue: Coastal GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Nyerges

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This special issue of the ISPRS International Journal of Geographic Information about “Coastal GIS” is motivated by many circumstances. More than one-half of the world’s human population lives in coastal areas (within 200 kilometers of coast as of 2000 [1]. The trend toward coastal habitation is expected to continue in the US with the total being 75 percent by 2025, meaning that coastal human–environment interactions will likely increase and intensify [2]. Geographic information systems (GIS are being developed and used by technical specialists, stakeholder publics, and executive/policy decision makers for improving our understanding and management of coastal areas, separately and together as more organizations focus on improving the sustainability and resilience of coastal systems. Coastal systems—defined as the area of land closely connected to the sea, including barrier islands, wetlands, mudflats, beaches, estuaries, cities, towns, recreational areas, and maritime facilities, the continental seas and shelves, and the overlying atmosphere—are subject to complex and dynamic interactions among natural and human-driven processes. Coastal systems are crucial to regional and national economies, hosting valued human-built infrastructure and providing ecosystem services that sustain human well-being. This special issue of IJGI about coastal GIS presents a collection of nine papers that address many of the issues mentioned above. [...

  13. Evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within the mosquito vector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambrechts, Louis; Lequime, Sebastian

    2016-12-01

    To date, dengue virus evolution has mainly been addressed by studies conducted at the between-host level. Like other pathogens with high mutation rate and rapid replication, dengue viruses also evolve during the course of an infection. Over the last few years, the advent of deep-sequencing technologies has facilitated studies of dengue virus populations at the within-host level. Here, we review recent advances on the evolutionary dynamics of dengue virus populations within their mosquito vector. We discuss how identifying the evolutionary forces acting on dengue virus populations within the mosquito can shed light on the processes underlying vector-virus interactions and the evolution of epidemiologically relevant traits. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce......Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...

  15. Trends and population dynamics of a Velvet Scoter (Melanitta fusca) population: influence of density dependence and winter climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartman, G.; Kölzsch, A.; Larsson, K.; Nordberg, M.; Höglund, J.

    2013-01-01

    As many seaduck populations around the world have been reported to be in decline, there is an increasing demand for knowledge about intrinsic and extrinsic factors determining population dynamics of these species. In this study, we analyzed long-term dynamics of the summer population of Velvet

  16. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  17. Mechanistic description of population dynamics using dynamic energy budget theory incorporated into integral projection models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Caswell, H.; Toorians, M.E.M.; de Roos, A.M.

    1. Integral projection models (IPMs) provide a powerful approach to investigate ecological and rapid evolutionary change in quantitative life-history characteristics and population dynamics. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe the demographic rates – survival, growth and reproduction –

  18. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the population will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.

  19. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  20. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  1. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  2. CoC GIS Tools (GIS Tool)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — This tool provides a no-cost downloadable software tool that allows users to interact with professional quality GIS maps. Users access pre-compiled projects through...

  3. Identifying consumer-resource population dynamics using paleoecological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einarsson, Árni; Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Leavitt, Peter R; Ives, Anthony R

    2016-02-01

    Ecologists have long been fascinated by cyclic population fluctuations, because they suggest strong interactions between exploiter and victim species. Nonetheless, even for populations showing high-amplitude fluctuations, it is often hard to identify which species are the key drivers of the dynamics, because data are generally only available for a single species. Here, we use a paleoecological approach to investigate fluctuations in the midge population in Lake Mývatn, Iceland, which ranges over several orders of magnitude in irregular, multigeneration cycles. Previous circumstantial evidence points to consumer-resource interactions between midges and their primary food, diatoms, as the cause of these high-amplitude fluctuations. Using a pair of sediment cores from the lake, we reconstructed 26 years of dynamics of midges using egg remains and of algal groups using diagnostic pigments. We analyzed these data using statistical methods that account for both the autocorrelated nature of paleoecological data and measurement error caused by the mixing of sediment layers. The analyses revealed a signature of consumer-resource interactions in the fluctuations of midges and diatoms: diatom abundance (as inferred from biomarker pigment diatoxanthin) increased when midge abundance was low, and midge abundance (inferred from egg capsules) decreased when diatom abundance was low. Similar patterns were not found for pigments characterizing the other dominant primary producer group in the lake (cyanobacteria), subdominant algae (cryptophytes), or ubiquitous but chemically unstable biomarkers of total algal abundance (chlorophyll a); however, a significant but weaker pattern was found for the chemically stable indicator of total algal populations (β-carotene) to which diatoms are the dominant contributor. These analyses provide the first paleoecological evaluation of specific trophic interactions underlying high amplitude population fluctuations in lakes.

  4. Dynamics of adaptive immunity against phage in bacterial populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradde, Serena; Vucelja, Marija; Tesileanu, Tiberiu; Balasubramanian, Vijay

    The CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) mechanism allows bacteria to adaptively defend against phages by acquiring short genomic sequences (spacers) that target specific sequences in the viral genome. We propose a population dynamical model where immunity can be both acquired and lost. The model predicts regimes where bacterial and phage populations can co-exist, others where the populations oscillate, and still others where one population is driven to extinction. Our model considers two key parameters: (1) ease of acquisition and (2) spacer effectiveness in conferring immunity. Analytical calculations and numerical simulations show that if spacers differ mainly in ease of acquisition, or if the probability of acquiring them is sufficiently high, bacteria develop a diverse population of spacers. On the other hand, if spacers differ mainly in their effectiveness, their final distribution will be highly peaked, akin to a ``winner-take-all'' scenario, leading to a specialized spacer distribution. Bacteria can interpolate between these limiting behaviors by actively tuning their overall acquisition rate.

  5. Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, L D; Sibona, G J; Diaz, L A; Contigiani, M S; Condat, C A

    2017-05-21

    The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes M max . Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on M max . We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which M max is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of M max on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  7. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  8. Population dynamics in Asia and the Pacific: implications for development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-03-01

    This article is an excerpt from a recently published article on interactions between population and development in the "Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, 1993." Topics include the dynamics of change (growth, age structure, sex composition, migration); implications for specific development issues (population and education, population and health, population and employment, and population and the environment); and policy approaches (slowing growth, spatial distribution, and the role of women). The Asian focus is on population policy and fertility declines. Different conditions specific to each country and varying degrees of program success give rise to country-specific differences in rates of growth and declines in fertility. Population compositions and pressures on spatial distribution differ among countries. Development demands differ for education, health, employment, and environmental controls. A common feature is that population is integrated into social and economic development policies. The links between population and the environment are recognized and will be integrated into policy as knowledge emerges. The ESCAP region has about 58% of world population, and fertility has declined to 3.1 children per woman. Fertility declines do not result in demonstrable changes in the rate of population growth, because the proportion of reproductive age women has increased and will continue to do so until 2010. Reductions in fertility are balanced by mortality declines. The annual rate of increase has gradually slowed, however the absolute size is still huge. The goal of the Bali Declaration of 1992 is to reach replacement level fertility of 2.2 children per woman by 2010 in the ESCAP region. The UN median variant projects 2.4 children per woman by 2010. The countries unlikely to reach replacement level fertility are India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Age structure will determine the need for services. For example, South Asia will

  9. Population Dynamics of Patients with Bacterial Resistance in Hospital Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leilei Qu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available During the past decades, the increase of antibiotic resistance has become a major concern worldwide. The researchers found that superbugs with new type of resistance genes (NDM-1 have two aspects of transmission characteristics; the first is that the antibiotic resistance genes can horizontally transfer among bacteria, and the other is that the superbugs can spread between humans through direct contact. Based on these two transmission mechanisms, we study the dynamics of population in hospital environment where superbugs exist. In this paper, we build three mathematic models to illustrate the dynamics of patients with bacterial resistance in hospital environment. The models are analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. Positive equilibrium points of the system are investigated and their stability analysis is carried out. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed which supports the theoretical findings.

  10. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  11. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [PSabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination.

  12. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals.

  13. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  14. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  15. Spatial dynamics of a periodic population model with dispersal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Zhao Xiaoqiang

    2009-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of spatial dynamics of a class of periodic integro-differential equations which describe the population dispersal process via a dispersal kernel. By appealing to the theory of asymptotic speeds of spread and travelling waves for monotonic periodic semiflows, we establish the existence of the spreading speed c * and the nonexistence of continuous periodic travelling wave solutions with wave speed c * . We also prove the existence of left-continuous periodic travelling waves with wave speed c ≥ c * . In the autonomous case, the continuity of monotonic wave profiles with wave speed c ≥ c * is obtained

  16. Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil

    2017-11-01

    Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate.

  17. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  18. Examining effects of vineyard development on bird populations of California's oak woodlands--use of GIS and power analysis to select study sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emily Heaton; Colin Brooks; Adina Merenlender; Mark Reynolds; Mary Chase

    2002-01-01

    Vineyard expansion into California’s oak woodlands is creating an increasingly fragmented and altered landscape for wildlife. This landscape-level study is designed to provide information about the effects of vineyard development and oak habitat retention on oak-associated bird communities in northern coastal California. We have used Geographic Information System (GIS...

  19. Geographical information systems (GIS) and risk maps of urinary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GIS) are used to develop risk maps of the probability occurrence of urinary schistosomiasis and population at risk in Ogun State, Nigeria. The model was developed using Arc View GIS 3.2a Software and incorporating infection, population, ...

  20. Integrating Remote Sensing, GIS, Census, and Socioeconomic Data ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sulaiman.adebowale

    (GIS) have been observed to have potential scientific value for the study of population-environment interaction. This paper provides an account of how. Remote Sensing, GIS, census (mainly population and agricultural) and socioeconomic ..... Caldwell, J. C., 1965, 'Extended Family Obligations and Education: A study of an.

  1. Host-Parasite Interactions and Population Dynamics of Rock Ptarmigan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenkewitz, Ute; Nielsen, Ólafur K; Skírnisson, Karl; Stefánsson, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    evidence that E. muta through time-lag in prevalence with respect to host population size and by showing significant relations with host body condition, mortality, and fecundity could destabilize ptarmigan population dynamics in Iceland.

  2. Evolutionary dynamics for persistent cooperation in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Liu, Xinsheng; Claussen, Jens Christian; Guo, Wanlin

    2015-06-01

    The emergence and maintenance of cooperative behavior is a fascinating topic in evolutionary biology and social science. The public goods game (PGG) is a paradigm for exploring cooperative behavior. In PGG, the total resulting payoff is divided equally among all participants. This feature still leads to the dominance of defection without substantially magnifying the public good by a multiplying factor. Much effort has been made to explain the evolution of cooperative strategies, including a recent model in which only a portion of the total benefit is shared by all the players through introducing a new strategy named persistent cooperation. A persistent cooperator is a contributor who is willing to pay a second cost to retrieve the remaining portion of the payoff contributed by themselves. In a previous study, this model was analyzed in the framework of well-mixed populations. This paper focuses on discussing the persistent cooperation in lattice-structured populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the structured populations consisting of three types of competing players (pure cooperators, defectors, and persistent cooperators) are revealed by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. In particular, the approximate expressions of fixation probabilities for strategies are derived on one-dimensional lattices. The phase diagrams of stationary states, and the evolution of frequencies and spatial patterns for strategies are illustrated on both one-dimensional and square lattices by simulations. Our results are consistent with the general observation that, at least in most situations, a structured population facilitates the evolution of cooperation. Specifically, here we find that the existence of persistent cooperators greatly suppresses the spreading of defectors under more relaxed conditions in structured populations compared to that obtained in well-mixed populations.

  3. Population Dynamics in the Capitalist World-Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Danna

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World-systems analysis has given scant attention to population dynamics. Overlooked are large-scale macrohistorical population trends and their microhistorical foundation on procreative decisions-decisions which are taken by a historically changing subject of procreation: local elders or other authorities, head(s of the household, couples, and women. The discipline of demography is also not as helpful as it could be, given its basis in modernization theory, which fails to recognize intentionality in reproduction in pre-capitalist societies. It assumes a model of "demographic transition" from a state of "natural fertility" to a state of conscious family planning, while also treating mortality as independent of fertility Marxism recognized the importance of population as a source of labor for profit and capital accumulation. With its tools Sydney Coontz developed a demand for labor theory explaining in particular the decrease in the birth rate in England and the United States at the turn of the century This theory was f urther developed by anthropologists of the "mode of product ion and population pat terns " who, with other authors, offer useful theories and insights to advance world-historical research on population. This article explores connections between population dy namics and world-systems analysis. I explore six key questions at different levels of analysis, including: 1 Are there world-systems ' imperatives concerning human reproduction?; 2 Do human reproduction imperatives differ across world-systems.'?; 3 How do the (eventual systems requirements get transmitted to households and individuals'?; 4 Why do people have children.'?; 5 Who is the subject of procreation decisions'?; and 6 How is the number of offspring chosen? Finally, I offer guidelines for applying the six questions to the capitalist world-economy.

  4. INTEGRATION OF GIS AND BIM FOR INDOOR GEOVISUAL ANALYTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Wu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an endeavour of integration of GIS (Geographical Information System and BIM (Building Information Modelling for indoor geovisual analytics. The merits of two types of technologies, GIS and BIM are firstly analysed in the context of indoor environment. GIS has well-developed capabilities of spatial analysis such as network analysis, while BIM has the advantages for indoor 3D modelling and dynamic simulation. This paper firstly investigates the important aspects for integrating GIS and BIM. Different data standards and formats such as the IFC (Industry Foundation Classes and GML (Geography Markup Language are discussed. Their merits and limitations in data transformation between GIS and BIM are analysed in terms of semantic and geometric information. An optimized approach for data exchange between GIS and BIM datasets is then proposed. After that, a strategy of using BIM for 3D indoor modelling, GIS for spatial analysis, and BIM again for visualization and dynamic simulation of the analysis results is presented. Based on the developments, this paper selects a typical problem, optimized indoor emergency evacuation, to demonstrate the integration of GIS and BIM for indoor geovisual analytics. The block Z of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University is selected as a test site. Detailed indoor and outdoor 3D models of the block Z are created using a BIM software Revit. The 3D models are transferred to a GIS software ArcGIS to carry out spatial analysis. Optimized evacuation plans considering dynamic constraints are generated based on network analysis in ArcGIS assuming there is a fire accident inside the building. The analysis results are then transferred back to BIM software for visualization and dynamic simulation. The developed methods and results are of significance to facilitate future development of GIS and BIM integrated solutions in various applications.

  5. Integration of GIS and Bim for Indoor Geovisual Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, B.; Zhang, S.

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents an endeavour of integration of GIS (Geographical Information System) and BIM (Building Information Modelling) for indoor geovisual analytics. The merits of two types of technologies, GIS and BIM are firstly analysed in the context of indoor environment. GIS has well-developed capabilities of spatial analysis such as network analysis, while BIM has the advantages for indoor 3D modelling and dynamic simulation. This paper firstly investigates the important aspects for integrating GIS and BIM. Different data standards and formats such as the IFC (Industry Foundation Classes) and GML (Geography Markup Language) are discussed. Their merits and limitations in data transformation between GIS and BIM are analysed in terms of semantic and geometric information. An optimized approach for data exchange between GIS and BIM datasets is then proposed. After that, a strategy of using BIM for 3D indoor modelling, GIS for spatial analysis, and BIM again for visualization and dynamic simulation of the analysis results is presented. Based on the developments, this paper selects a typical problem, optimized indoor emergency evacuation, to demonstrate the integration of GIS and BIM for indoor geovisual analytics. The block Z of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University is selected as a test site. Detailed indoor and outdoor 3D models of the block Z are created using a BIM software Revit. The 3D models are transferred to a GIS software ArcGIS to carry out spatial analysis. Optimized evacuation plans considering dynamic constraints are generated based on network analysis in ArcGIS assuming there is a fire accident inside the building. The analysis results are then transferred back to BIM software for visualization and dynamic simulation. The developed methods and results are of significance to facilitate future development of GIS and BIM integrated solutions in various applications.

  6. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  7. Representation of dynamical stimuli in populations of threshold neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjana Tchumatchenko

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sensory or cognitive events are associated with dynamic current modulations in cortical neurons. This raises an urgent demand for tractable model approaches addressing the merits and limits of potential encoding strategies. Yet, current theoretical approaches addressing the response to mean- and variance-encoded stimuli rarely provide complete response functions for both modes of encoding in the presence of correlated noise. Here, we investigate the neuronal population response to dynamical modifications of the mean or variance of the synaptic bombardment using an alternative threshold model framework. In the variance and mean channel, we provide explicit expressions for the linear and non-linear frequency response functions in the presence of correlated noise and use them to derive population rate response to step-like stimuli. For mean-encoded signals, we find that the complete response function depends only on the temporal width of the input correlation function, but not on other functional specifics. Furthermore, we show that both mean- and variance-encoded signals can relay high-frequency inputs, and in both schemes step-like changes can be detected instantaneously. Finally, we obtain the pairwise spike correlation function and the spike triggered average from the linear mean-evoked response function. These results provide a maximally tractable limiting case that complements and extends previous results obtained in the integrate and fire framework.

  8. Survival and Population Dynamics of the Marabou Stork in an Isolated Population, Swaziland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monadjem, Ara; Kane, Adam; Botha, Andre; Dalton, Desire; Kotze, Antoinette

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the ecology of long lived birds is particularly challenging owing to the time scales involved. Here an analysis is presented of a long term study of the survival and population dynamics of the marabou stork (Leptoptilos crumeniferus), a wide ranging scavenging bird from Sub-Saharan Africa. Using resightings data of tagged nestlings and free flying birds we show that the stork population can be divided into three general life stages with unique survival probabilities and fecundities. Fecundity of the storks is inversely related to rainfall during their breeding season. Corroborative evidence for a metapopulation structure is discussed highlighting the impact of the Swaziland birds on the ecology of the species in the broader region. The importance of tag loss or illegibility over time is highlighted. Clearly, any attempt at conserving a species will require a detailed understanding of its population structure, of the sort examined here. PMID:23029517

  9. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [Ppopulation appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria elimination. PMID:24358203

  10. World Trade, disease and Florida's animal populations. The changing dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffman, L M

    2000-01-01

    One of Florida's three leading economic industries is agriculture. Agriculture feeds and enhances the lives of millions of people in Florida, the United States, and the entire world. Agriculture in Florida results in more than $6 billion in farm cash receipts, employment for more than 60,000 people a month, more than $18 billion in farm-related economic activity and stretches from the farm gate to the state's supermarkets with an impact of nearly $45 billion. The domestic and wild animal populations of Florida, our unique relationship to the Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Central and South America, as well as tourism, diverse human population growth and immigration, all add to the complexity of an environment capable of establishing many animals, animal pests and diseases not native to the United States. Never before have the dynamics of disease control involved as much challenge and diversity. Is the balance at risk, or is the risk over-balanced? Can science, economics and politics blend to maintain this balance? How will the balance affect world trade, disease control and the animal populations of Florida?

  11. GIS in Swiss Highschools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nedjeljko Frančula

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In 2003, the Swiss Geography Teacher Society from the German speaking area initiated the introduction of GIS to Swiss highschools. A very favourablecontract was made with the ESRI Company about using their software ArcView,thus as many as 44 highschools had GIS education in 2008.

  12. GIS in Swiss Highschools

    OpenAIRE

    Nedjeljko Frančula

    2009-01-01

    In 2003, the Swiss Geography Teacher Society from the German speaking area initiated the introduction of GIS to Swiss highschools. A very favourablecontract was made with the ESRI Company about using their software ArcView,thus as many as 44 highschools had GIS education in 2008.

  13. Artificial bee colony algorithm with dynamic multi-population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Ji, Zhicheng; Wang, Yan

    2017-07-01

    To improve the convergence rate and make a balance between the global search and local turning abilities, this paper proposes a decentralized form of artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm with dynamic multi-populations by means of fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering. Each subpopulation periodically enlarges with the same size during the search process, and the overlapping individuals among different subareas work for delivering information acting as exploring the search space with diffusion of solutions. Moreover, a Gaussian-based search equation with redefined local attractor is proposed to further accelerate the diffusion of the best solution and guide the search towards potential areas. Experimental results on a set of benchmarks demonstrate the competitive performance of our proposed approach.

  14. Mean-field games with logistic population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-12-01

    In its standard form, a mean-field game can be defined by coupled system of equations, a Hamilton-Jacobi equation for the value function of agents and a Fokker-Planck equation for the density of agents. Traditionally, the latter equation is adjoint to the linearization of the former. Since the Fokker-Planck equation models a population dynamic, we introduce natural features such as seeding and birth, and nonlinear death rates. In this paper we analyze a stationary meanfield game in one dimension, illustrating various techniques to obtain regularity of solutions in this class of systems. In particular we consider a logistic-type model for birth and death of the agents which is natural in problems where crowding affects the death rate of the agents. The introduction of these new terms requires a number of new ideas to obtain wellposedness. In a forthcoming publication we will address higher dimensional models. ©2013 IEEE.

  15. Dynamical criticality in the collective activity of a neural population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Thierry

    The past decade has seen a wealth of physiological data suggesting that neural networks may behave like critical branching processes. Concurrently, the collective activity of neurons has been studied using explicit mappings to classic statistical mechanics models such as disordered Ising models, allowing for the study of their thermodynamics, but these efforts have ignored the dynamical nature of neural activity. I will show how to reconcile these two approaches by learning effective statistical mechanics models of the full history of the collective activity of a neuron population directly from physiological data, treating time as an additional dimension. Applying this technique to multi-electrode recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and studying the thermodynamics of the inferred model, reveals a peak in specific heat reminiscent of a second-order phase transition.

  16. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krkošek, Martin; Drake, John M.

    2014-01-01

    Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. PMID:24759855

  17. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  18. Evolutionary game dynamics in a growing structured population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poncela, Julia; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Moreno, Yamir; Traulsen, Arne

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a model for evolutionary game dynamics in a growing, network-structured population. In our model, new players can either make connections to random preexisting players or preferentially attach to those that have been successful in the past. The latter depends on the dynamics of strategies in the game, which we implement following the so-called Fermi rule such that the limits of weak and strong strategy selection can be explored. Our framework allows to address general evolutionary games. With only two parameters describing the preferential attachment and the intensity of selection, we describe a wide range of network structures and evolutionary scenarios. Our results show that even for moderate payoff preferential attachment, over represented hubs arise. Interestingly, we find that while the networks are growing, high levels of cooperation are attained, but the same network structure does not promote cooperation as a static network. Therefore, the mechanism of payoff preferential attachment is different to those usually invoked to explain the promotion of cooperation in static, already-grown networks.

  19. Sonoluminescence and dynamics of cavitation bubble populations in sulfuric acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiemann, Andrea; Holsteyns, Frank; Cairós, Carlos; Mettin, Robert

    2017-01-01

    The detailed link of liquid phase sonochemical reactions and bubble dynamics is still not sufficiently known. To further clarify this issue, we image sonoluminescence and bubble oscillations, translations, and shapes in an acoustic cavitation setup at 23kHz in sulfuric acid with dissolved sodium sulfate and xenon gas saturation. The colour of sonoluminescence varies in a way that emissions from excited non-volatile sodium atoms are prominently observed far from the acoustic horn emitter ("red region"), while such emissions are nearly absent close to the horn tip ("blue region"). High-speed images reveal the dynamics of distinct bubble populations that can partly be linked to the different emission regions. In particular, we see smaller strongly collapsing spherical bubbles within the blue region, while larger bubbles with a liquid jet during collapse dominate the red region. The jetting is induced by the fast bubble translation, which is a consequence of acoustic (Bjerknes) forces in the ultrasonic field. Numerical simulations with a spherical single bubble model reproduce quantitatively the volume oscillations and fast translation of the sodium emitting bubbles. Additionally, their intermittent stopping is explained by multistability in a hysteretic parameter range. The findings confirm the assumption that bubble deformations are responsible for pronounced sodium sonoluminescence. Notably the observed translation induced jetting appears to serve as efficient mixing mechanism of liquid into the heated gas phase of collapsing bubbles, thus potentially promoting liquid phase sonochemistry in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Dynamical evolution of a fictitious population of binary Neptune Trojans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunini, Adrián

    2018-03-01

    We present numerical simulations of the evolution of a synthetic population of Binary Neptune Trojans, under the influence of the solar perturbations and tidal friction (the so-called Kozai cycles and tidal friction evolution). Our model includes the dynamical influence of the four giant planets on the heliocentric orbit of the binary centre of mass. In this paper, we explore the evolution of initially tight binaries around the Neptune L4 Lagrange point. We found that the variation of the heliocentric orbital elements due to the libration around the Lagrange point introduces significant changes in the orbital evolution of the binaries. Collisional processes would not play a significant role in the dynamical evolution of Neptune Trojans. After 4.5 × 109 yr of evolution, ˜50 per cent of the synthetic systems end up separated as single objects, most of them with slow diurnal rotation rate. The final orbital distribution of the surviving binary systems is statistically similar to the one found for Kuiper Belt Binaries when collisional evolution is not included in the model. Systems composed by a primary and a small satellite are more fragile than the ones composed by components of similar sizes.

  1. Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElreath, Richard; Smaldino, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    Many published research results are false (Ioannidis, 2005), and controversy continues over the roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication, publication bias, and variation in research quality. We develop a mathematical model of scientific discovery that combines all of these elements. This model provides both a dynamic model of research as well as a formal framework for reasoning about the normative structure of science. We show that replication may serve as a ratchet that gradually separates true hypotheses from false, but the same factors that make initial findings unreliable also make replications unreliable. The most important factors in improving the reliability of research are the rate of false positives and the base rate of true hypotheses, and we offer suggestions for addressing each. Our results also bring clarity to verbal debates about the communication of research. Surprisingly, publication bias is not always an obstacle, but instead may have positive impacts-suppression of negative novel findings is often beneficial. We also find that communication of negative replications may aid true discovery even when attempts to replicate have diminished power. The model speaks constructively to ongoing debates about the design and conduct of science, focusing analysis and discussion on precise, internally consistent models, as well as highlighting the importance of population dynamics.

  2. Programming microbial population dynamics by engineered cell-cell communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hao; Payne, Stephen; Tan, Cheemeng; You, Lingchong

    2011-07-01

    A major aim of synthetic biology is to program novel cellular behavior using engineered gene circuits. Early endeavors focused on building simple circuits that fulfill simple functions, such as logic gates, bistable toggle switches, and oscillators. These gene circuits have primarily focused on single-cell behaviors since they operate intracellularly. Thus, they are often susceptible to cell-cell variations due to stochastic gene expression. Cell-cell communication offers an efficient strategy to coordinate cellular behavior at the population level. To this end, we review recent advances in engineering cell-cell communication to achieve reliable population dynamics, spanning from communication within single species to multispecies, from one-way sender-receiver communication to two-way communication in synthetic microbial ecosystems. These engineered systems serve as well-defined model systems to better understand design principles of their naturally occurring counterparts and to facilitate novel biotechnology applications. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  4. Population dynamics throughout the urban context: A case study in sub-Saharan Africa utilizing remotely sensed imagery and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benza, Magdalena

    The characteristics of places where people live and work play an important role in explaining complex social, political, economic and demographic processes. In sub-Saharan Africa rapid urban growth combined with rising poverty is creating diverse urban environments inhabited by people with a wide variety of lifestyles. This research examines how spatial patterns of land cover in a southern portion of the West African country of Ghana are associated with particular characteristics of family organization and reproduction decisions. Satellite imagery and landscape metrics are used to create an urban context definition based on landscape patterns using a gradient approach. Census data are used to estimate fertility levels and household structure, and the association between urban context, household composition and fertility levels is modeled through OLS regression, spatial autoregressive models and geographically weighted regression. Results indicate that there are significant differences in fertility levels between different urban contexts, with below average fertility levels found in the most urbanized end of the urban context definition and above average fertility levels found on the opposite end. The spatial patterns identified in the association between urban context and fertility levels indicate that, within the city areas with lower fertility have significant impacts on the reproductive levels of adjacent neighborhoods. Findings also indicate that there are clear patterns that link urban context to living arrangements and fertility levels. Female- and single-headed households are associated with below average fertility levels, a result that connects dropping fertility levels with the spread of smaller nuclear households in developing countries. At the same time, larger extended family households are linked to below average fertility levels for highly clustered areas, a finding that points to the prevalence of extended family housing in the West African city.

  5. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Valkenburg

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP are recovering from population declines, the Northern Alaska Peninsula Herd (NAP appears to be nearing the end of a protracted decline, and the Mulchatna Herd (MCH appears to now be declining after 20 years of rapid growth. The remaining naturally occurring herd (Kilbuck has virtually disappeared. Nutrition had a significant effect on the size of 4-month-old and 10-month-old calves in the NAP and the Nushagak Peninsula Herd (NPCH and probably also on population growth in at least 4 (SAP, NAP, NPCH, and MCH of the six caribou herds in southwestern Alaska. Predation does not appear to be sufficient to keep caribou herds in southwestern Alaska from expanding, probably because rabies is endemic in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes and is periodically transferred to wolves (Canis lupus and other canids. However, we found evidence that pneumonia and hoof rot may result in significant mortality of caribou in southwestern Alaska, whereas there is no evidence that disease is important in the dynamics of Interior herds. Cooperative conservation programs, such as the Kilbuck Caribou Management Plan, can be successful in restraining traditional harvest and promoting growth in caribou herds. In southwestern Alaska we also found evidence that small caribou herds can be swamped and assimilated by large herds, and fidelity to traditional calving areas can be lost.

  6. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  7. A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Hodgson, David James

    2011-01-01

    Empirical models are central to effective conservation and population management, and should be predictive of real-world dynamics. Available modelling methods are diverse, but analysis usually focuses on long-term dynamics that are unable to describe the complicated short-term time series that ca...... of transient population density, but criticises the utility of established indices of convergence times. Our findings should guide further development of analyses of transient population dynamics using PPMs or other empirical modelling techniques....

  8. Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may

  9. Population dynamics and monitoring applied to decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conroy, M. J.

    2004-06-01

    influence diagrams to capture the stochastic, temporal processes of managing cheetah population in Kenya. The model predicts likely anagement decisions made by various actors within these countries, (e.g., the President, the Environmental Protection Agency, and rural residents and the resulting probability of cheetah extinction following these decisions. By approaching the problem in both its political and ecological contexts one avoids consideration of decisions that, while beneficial from a purely conservation point of view, are unlikely to be implemented because of conflicting political objectives. Haas’s analysis demonstrates both the promise and challenges of this type of modeling, and he offers suggestions for overcoming inherent technical difficulties such as model calibration. The second paper, by Simon Hoyle and Mark Maunder (Hoyle & Maunder, 2004, uses a Bayesian approach to model population dynamics and the effects of commercial fishing bycatch for the eastern Pacific Ocean spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata. Their paper provides a good example of why Bayesian analysis is particularly suited to many management problems. Namely, because it allows the integration of disparate pieces of monitoring data in the simultaneous estimation of population parameters; allows forincorporation of expert judgment and data from other systems and species; and provides for explicit consideration of uncertainty in decision–making. Alternative management scenarios can then be explored via forward simulations. In the third paper, Chris Fonnesbeck and Mike Conroy (Fonnesbeck & Conroy, 2004 present an integrated approach for estimating parameters and predicting abundance of American black duck (Anas rubripes populations. They also employ a ayesian approach and overcome some of the computational challenges by using Markov chain–Monte Carlo methods. Ring–recovery and harvest data are used to estimate fall age ratios under alternative reproductive models. These in turn are used to

  10. HUD GIS Boundary Files

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Housing and Urban Development — The HUD GIS Boundary Files are intended to supplement boundary files available from the U.S. Census Bureau. The files are for community planners interested in...

  11. GIS and Urban Mining

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, Xuan

    2014-01-01

    Geographical information systems (GIS) are a kind of location intelligence technology that supports systematic collection, integration, analysis and sharing of spatial data. They provide an effective tool for characterising and visualising geographical distributions of recyclable resources or materials dispersed across urban environments in what may be described as “urban mines”. As logistics can be a key barrier to recycling, GIS are critical for capturing and analysing location intelligence...

  12. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  13. Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouma, B.O.; Amin, R.; Langevelde, van F.; Leader-Williams, N.

    2010-01-01

    Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential.

  14. GIS and Urban Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Zhu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Geographical information systems (GIS are a kind of location intelligence technology that supports systematic collection, integration, analysis and sharing of spatial data. They provide an effective tool for characterising and visualising geographical distributions of recyclable resources or materials dispersed across urban environments in what may be described as “urban mines”. As logistics can be a key barrier to recycling, GIS are critical for capturing and analysing location intelligence about the distribution and values of recyclable resources and associated collection systems to effectively empower and inform the policy makers and the broader community with comprehensive, accurate and accessible information. This paper reviews the functionality of modern GIS, discusses the potential role of GIS in urban mining studies, and describes how GIS can be used to measure, report, analyse and visualise the spatial or geographical characteristics of dispersed stocks of recyclable waste and their collection and recovery systems. Such information can then be used to model material flows and assess the social and environmental impacts of urban mining. Issues and challenges in the use of GIS for urban mining are also to be addressed.

  15. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  17. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  18. Dynamic of population-dynamics in a medically important snail species Lymnaea (Radix Luteola (Lamarck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Misra

    1993-09-01

    Full Text Available The life-cycle parameters of the snail Lymnaea (Radix luteola and the factors influencing the same have been studied under laboratory conditions. Ins each month, from July 1990 to June 1991, a batch of 100 zero-day old individual were considered for studies. The snails of April batch survived for 19.42 days while those in December batch survived for 87.45 days. The May batch individual though survived for 65.67 days gained maximum shell size (15.84 mm in length and body weight (419.87 mg. All individuals of April batch died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. In the remaining 11 batches the snails became sexually mature between 32 and 53 days. At this stage, they were with varying shell lengths, 9.3 mm to 13,11 mm in respect to batches. The reproduction period varied from 1-67 days. An individual laid, on an average, 0,25 (March batch to 443.67 (May batch eggs in its life-span. A batch of such snails would leave 24312, 22520, 720268, 80408, 76067, 418165, 214, 9202, 0, 0, 2459386 and 127894 individuals at the end of 352nd day. Since the environmental conditions were almost similar the 'dynamic' of population dynamics seems to be involved with the 'strain' of the snail individuals of the batches concerned.

  19. The Impact of Mine Closures on Rural Population Dynamics: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines the demographic and socio-cultural impact of spontaneous population inflows into Zhombe following the closure of the Empress Mine in 1982. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey. Results of the study show that mine closures cause rural population change. The population directly grows ...

  20. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Type II) populations in maize (Zea mays) producing areas under Uganda conditions. Populations of the fungus ... years of study the impact of selection and genetic drift on C. zeina populations in the two Ugandan agroecologies is slow, but progressive ..... measures the probability of obtaining two different alleles at a locus ...

  1. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Census population size, sex-ratio and female reproductive success were monitored in 10 laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster selected for different ages of reproduction. With this demographic information, we estimated eigenvalue, variance and probability of allele loss effective population sizes. We conclude ...

  2. On the apllication of single specie dynamic population model | Iguda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Method of mathematical models of Malthus and Verhults were applied on ten years data collected from Magaram Poultry Farm to determine the nature of population growth, population decay or constant ... Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and one way Anova.

  3. Multimodale trafiknet i GIS (Multimodal Traffic Network in GIS)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Jacob; Brems, Camilla Riff

    1996-01-01

    The report introduces the use of multi-modal traffic networks within a geographical Information System (GIS). The necessary theory of modelling multi-modal traffic network is reviewed and applied to the ARC/INFO GIS by an explorative example.......The report introduces the use of multi-modal traffic networks within a geographical Information System (GIS). The necessary theory of modelling multi-modal traffic network is reviewed and applied to the ARC/INFO GIS by an explorative example....

  4. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  5. Anvendeligheden af GIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winstrup, Mie; Levin, Gregor

    2011-01-01

    Fragmentering af naturen er en trussel mod biodiversiteten, og etablering af økologiske forbindelser/korridorer mellem naturområderne er én måde hvorved nedgangen i biodiversitet kan stoppes. Med Næstved Kommune som case-område har jeg undersøgt, hvordan analyser i GIS kan bruges til at udvælge...... omdannet til reelle korridorer, hvor bredden afhænger af arealdækket som forbindelserne krydser. I implementerings øjemed er det anvendeligt at vide om nogle forbindelser er særlig vigtige for at skabe mere sammenhængende natur. GIS er anvendeligt hertil, idet GIS kan bruges til at bestemme den enkelte...

  6. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  7. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  8. [Nonlinear effects on population dynamics related to age structure and fishery impact].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frisman, E Ia; Last, E V

    2005-01-01

    Population dynamics of commercial fish populations with an age structure was studied by the example of salmons. The relationship between the amount of catch on fishing efforts and total abundance of a stock fished is described by a nonlinear "trophic" function. Special attention is given to the analysis of population dynamics stability under conditions for maximum profit. Simulation results are compared to statistical data on the catch of Pacific salmon species in the Bering Sea.

  9. DynaPop-X: A population dynamics model applied to spatio-temporal exposure assessment - Implementation aspects from the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Steinnocher, Klaus; Humer, Heinrich; Huber, Hermann

    2014-05-01

    .K., Hunter, G.J. (2007) A spatio-temporal population model to support risk assessment and damage analysis for decision-making. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 21(8), 935-953. Aubrecht, C., Fuchs, S., Neuhold, C. (2013a) Spatio-temporal aspects and dimensions in integrated disaster risk management. Natural Hazards, 68(3), 1205-1216. Aubrecht, C., Özceylan, D., Steinnocher, K., Freire, S. (2013b) Multi-level geospatial modeling of human exposure patterns and vulnerability indicators. Natural Hazards, 68(1), 147-163. Bhaduri, B. (2008) Population distribution during the day. In S. Shekhar & X. Hui, eds., Encyclopedia of GIS. Springer US, 880-885. Cockings, S., Martin, D. & Leung, S. (2010) Population 24/7: building space-time specific population surface models. In M. Haklay, J. Morley, & H. Rahemtulla, eds., Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual conference. GISRUK 2010. London, UK, 41-47. Freire, S., Aubrecht, C. (2012) Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12(11), 3533-3543.

  10. GIS og geodata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balstrøm, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Interview med Thomas Balstrøm om anvendelser af geografiske informationssystemer (GIS) i relation til forskning i jordbundsgeografiske problemstillinger. Bl.a. om forskning i rumlige analyser og inddragelse af rumlig statistik til at finde sammenhænge i geografiske data.......Interview med Thomas Balstrøm om anvendelser af geografiske informationssystemer (GIS) i relation til forskning i jordbundsgeografiske problemstillinger. Bl.a. om forskning i rumlige analyser og inddragelse af rumlig statistik til at finde sammenhænge i geografiske data....

  11. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  12. Intraspecific Competition and Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixão, C. A.; Charret, I. C.; Lima, R. R.

    2012-04-01

    We report computational simulations for the evolution of the population of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The results suggest that controlling the mosquito population, on the basis of intraspecific competition at the larval stage, can be an efficient mechanism for controlling the spread of the epidemic. The results also show the presence of a kind of genetic evolution in vector population, which results mainly in increasing the average lifespan of individuals in adulthood.

  13. Use of GIS Mapping as a Public Health Tool-From Cholera to Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musa, George J; Chiang, Po-Huang; Sylk, Tyler; Bavley, Rachel; Keating, William; Lakew, Bereketab; Tsou, Hui-Chen; Hoven, Christina W

    2013-01-01

    The field of medical geographic information systems (Medical GIS) has become extremely useful in understanding the bigger picture of public health. The discipline holds a substantial capacity to understand not only differences, but also similarities in population health all over the world. The main goal of marrying the disciplines of medical geography, public health and informatics is to understand how countless health issues impact populations, and the trends by which these populations are affected. From the 1990s to today, this practical approach has become a valued and progressive system in analyzing medical and epidemiological phenomena ranging from cholera to cancer. The instruments supporting this field include geographic information systems (GIS), disease surveillance, big data, and analytical approaches like the Geographical Analysis Machine (GAM), Dynamic Continuous Area Space Time Analysis (DYCAST), cellular automata, agent-based modeling, spatial statistics and self-organizing maps. The positive effects on disease mapping have proven to be tremendous as these instruments continue to have a great impact on the mission to improve worldwide health care. While traditional uses of GIS in public health are static and lacking real-time components, implementing a space-time animation in these instruments will be monumental as technology and data continue to grow.

  14. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  15. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  16. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  17. Population Dynamics and Natural Resources in the Volta in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, population growth is causing shortfalls in agricultural land, deforestation and high demand on water resources in some of the sub-basins of the Volta River Keywords: Population, Natural resources, Volta River Basin, Human Settlement Land Use/Coverage Change Ghana Journal of Development Studies Vol.

  18. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... differences in daily recruitment and within-patch survival rates. Males were most abundant relative to females early in the season, indicating protandry. Total adult population size was small and showed dramatic variation between the two years, indicating how vulnerable the local population is to demographic extinction.

  19. Dynamics of buckbrush populations under simulated forest restoration alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Huffman; Margaret M. Moore

    2008-01-01

    Plant population models are valuable tools for assessing ecological tradeoffs between forest management approaches. In addition, these models can provide insight on plant life history patterns and processes important for persistence and recovery of populations in changing environments. In this study, we evaluated a set of ecological restoration alternatives for their...

  20. Demographic processes in a local population: seasonal dynamics of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Francis

    every marked individual in the population has the same survival probability between two successive samples; and (2) the probability of capture is the same for all individuals in the population. Results of the full ..... Pollock KH, Nichols JD, Brownie C & Hines JE (1990) Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments.

  1. Changes in Plasmodium Falciparum Population Dynamics in Two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changing the malaria epidemiology will affect the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum. We studied the association between diversity at the merozoite surface protein 2 loci and the severity of disease in childhood malaria in two populations and at different time periods in Ibadan, southwest Nigeria. Population A ...

  2. CLOUD COMPUTING E GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Colombo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available L’articolo si propone di fornire una panoramica sul cloudcomputing, tenendo presente che questa tecnologia sta sempre più crescendo e diffondendosi in tutti gli ambiti della vita e sicuramente avrà delle ripercussioni notevoli sul nostro futuro. La cosa riguarda anche il settore dei sistemi informativi territoriali: in questo contesto, mentre l’industria legata ai GIS sta ancora valutando quali servizi fornire agli utenti, oltre alle normali cartografie vettoriali e raster disponibili online, Esri ha sviluppato ArcGIS Online e lo sta promuovendo fortemente.Cloud Computing and GISThe aim of this article is to provide an overview about cloud computing which is increasingly growing and spreading in our lives and for sure will have remarkable impact on our future.This is also happening for GIS, where some decisions still have to be made about which services can be provided to the users, besides the online basemaps (vector and raster; meanwhile, ESRI has developed and is highly promotingArcGIS Online.

  3. GIS Readiness Survey 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Lise; Hvingel, Line Træholt; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2014-01-01

    The GIS Readiness Survey 2014 is a follow-up to the corresponding survey that was carried out among public institutions in Denmark in 2009. The present survey thus provides an updated image of status and challenges in relation to the use of spatial information, the construction of the com- mon...

  4. Coastal dynamics physical and mathematical modelling, territorial analysis, G.I.S. instrumentation. The state of the arts; La dinamica costiera modellistica fisico-matematica, analisi del territorio, il supporto G.I.S. e la strumentazione in uso

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Bonis, P.; Fattorusso, G.; Onori, F.; Pagano, A.; Pasanisi, F.; Peloso, A.; Regina, P.; Tebano, C.; Zarlenga, F. [ENEA, Div. Caratterizzazione dell' Ambiente, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The aim of the present work is to offer, in a single volume, the basic notions relative to different aspects, both theoretical and practical, of the study of coastal dynamical processes. It has been dealt with geological issues, physical and mathematical modelling, effects related to human activities, Geographical Information Systems as well as both laboratory and fields instrumentations. Reading this technical paper it has to keep in mind two aspects which have been authors guidelines. First of all, the research theme's have been studied on their theoretical aspects, focusing on the most recent developments. Then have been selected some up to date experiences and discuss their application. The general framework of this publication, which necessarily leave out some particular issues, for which the readers are to be referred to the references, gives a synthetic and homogenous picture of the state of the arts in coastal modelling. [Italian] Lo scopo della presente pubblicazione e' quello di offrire, in un unico volume, le nozioni di base riguardo ai diversi argomenti sia teorici sia pratici relativi all'analisi delle dinamiche costiere. Sono stati affrontati i temi relativi alla geologia, alla modellistica fisica e matematica, ai fattori di pressione antropica, all'utilizzo di Sistemi Informativi Geografici e alla strumentazione sia di campo sia di laboratorio. Nello sviluppo del presente Rapporto Tecnico si possono individuare per ciascuna delle aree di interesse due aspetti fondamentali. Dapprima i temi di ricerca sono stati studiati da un punto di vista teorico generale, con attenzione agli sviluppi piu' attuali e successivamente sono state presentate alcune recenti esperienze ed applicazioni di tali conoscenze. L'impostazione generale del presente lavoro, che sicuramente porta a trascurare alcuni aspetti particolari, per i quali si rimanda alla bibliografia, fornisce in ogni caso un quadro sintetico ed organico dello stato dell

  5. Environmental variability and population dynamics: Do European and North American ducks play by the same rules?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöysä, Hannu; Rintala, Jukka; Johnson, Douglas H.; Kauppinen, Jukka; Lammi, Esa; Nudds, Thomas D.; Väänänen, Veli-Matti

    2016-01-01

    Density dependence, population regulation, and variability in population size are fundamental population processes, the manifestation and interrelationships of which are affected by environmental variability. However, there are surprisingly few empirical studies that distinguish the effect of environmental variability from the effects of population processes. We took advantage of a unique system, in which populations of the same duck species or close ecological counterparts live in highly variable (north American prairies) and in stable (north European lakes) environments, to distinguish the relative contributions of environmental variability (measured as between-year fluctuations in wetland numbers) and intraspecific interactions (density dependence) in driving population dynamics. We tested whether populations living in stable environments (in northern Europe) were more strongly governed by density dependence than populations living in variable environments (in North America). We also addressed whether relative population dynamical responses to environmental variability versus density corresponded to differences in life history strategies between dabbling (relatively “fast species” and governed by environmental variability) and diving (relatively “slow species” and governed by density) ducks. As expected, the variance component of population fluctuations caused by changes in breeding environments was greater in North America than in Europe. Contrary to expectations, however, populations in more stable environments were not less variable nor clearly more strongly density dependent than populations in highly variable environments. Also, contrary to expectations, populations of diving ducks were neither more stable nor stronger density dependent than populations of dabbling ducks, and the effect of environmental variability on population dynamics was greater in diving than in dabbling ducks. In general, irrespective of continent and species life history

  6. A mechanistic analysis of density dependence in algal population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian eBorlestean

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Population density regulation is a fundamental principle in ecology, but the specific process underlying functional expression of density dependence remains to be fully elucidated. One view contends that patterns of density dependence are largely fixed across a species irrespective of environmental conditions, whereas another is that the strength and expression of density dependence are fundamentally variable depending on the nature of exogenous or endogenous constraints acting on the population. We conducted a study investigating the expression of density dependence in Chlamydomonas spp. grown under a gradient from low to high nutrient density. We predicted that the relationship between per capita growth rate (pgr and population density would vary from concave up to concave down as nutrient density became less limiting and populations experienced weaker density regulation. Contrary to prediction, we found that the relationship between pgr and density became increasingly concave-up as nutrient levels increased. We also found that variation in pgr increased, and pgr levels reached higher maxima in nutrient-limited environments. Most likely, these results are attributable to population growth suppression in environments with high intraspecific competition due to limited nutrient resources. Our results suggest that density regulation is strongly variable depending on exogenous and endogenous processes acting on the population, implying that expression of density dependence depends extensively on local conditions. Additional experimental work should reveal the mechanisms influencing how the expression of density dependence varies across populations through space and time.

  7. GIS WORK GROUP: AN OVERVIEW (INCLUDES GIS-QA AND AUDITING GIS DATABASE SYSTEMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In order to promote cooperation in the implementation of GIS in regional offices, a GIS Regional Workgroup was established by the ten Regions in 1989. Since that time the GIS Work Group evolved and now consists of members from each of the ten EPA Regional Offices, the Office of A...

  8. Chaotic population dynamics and biology of the top-predator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rai, Vikas; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar

    2004-01-01

    We study how the dynamics of a food chain depends on the biology of the top-predator. We consider two model food chains with specialist and generalist top-predators. Both types of food chains display same type of chaotic behavior, short-term recurrent chaos; but the generating mechanisms are drastically different. Food chains with specialist top-predators are dictated by exogenous stochastic factors. On the contrary, the dynamics of those with the generalist top-predator is governed by deterministic changes in system parameters. The study also suggests that robust chaos would be a rarity

  9. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SMALL MAMMALS ACROSS A NITROGEN AMENDED LANDSCAPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogeochemical alterations of the nitrogen cycle from anthropogenic activities could have significant effects on ecological processes at the population, community and ecosystem levels. Nitrogen additions in grasslands have produced qualitative and quantitative changes in vegetat...

  10. Population dynamics of the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella L ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) was investigated at three farms on the Western side of the Sydney Basin, Australia, from November 2003 to October 2004. Adult populations were monitored fortnightly by counting the number that was trapped on ...

  11. Population dynamics of aquatic snails in Pampulha reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Freitas

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available An attempt was made to determine more accurately the density of molluskan populations in the Pampulha reservoir, using the quadrate method, intending to detect the fluctuation of the populations density, the habitat conditions and the possible competitive interactions among Biomphalaria tenagophila, Melanoides tuberculata, Pomacea haustrum and Biomphalaria glabrata, through the analysis of populational parameters. Among the most significative facts observed in the reservoir it has to be mentioned: the almost disappearance of B. glabrata; the invasion, colonization, fixation and fast growing of M. tuberculata population until reaching about 11,000 individuals/[square metre]; the density fluctuations of B. tenagophila, P. haustrum and M. tuberculata alives and deads; differences on the habitat preference of these three molluskan species at the edge (at the limit earth-water, at 0.70m and 1.40m from the shore line; monthly mortality rates and reproduction seasons of the species.

  12. Population dynamics of caribou herds in southwestern Alaska

    OpenAIRE

    Valkenburg, Patrick; Sellers, Richard A.; Squibb, Ronald C.; Woolington, James D.; Aderman, Andrew R.; Dale, Bruce W.

    2003-01-01

    The five naturally occurring and one transplanted caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd in southwestern Alaska composed about 20% of Alaska's caribou population in 2001. All five of the naturally occurring herds fluctuated considerably in size between the late 1800s and 2001 and for some herds the data provide an indication of long-term periodic (40-50 year) fluctuations. At the present time, the Unimak (UCH) and Southern Alaska Peninsula (SAP) are recovering from population declines, the N...

  13. The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies on bivalves in the SwartkOps estuary have indicated that spatfall oa::an dlD'iDllate summer. After adult populations had been decimated by floods in 1971 spat IDII.de up a Iarp proportion of the bivalve population in 1973. Growth rata! vary at difl"erent intertidallevela and in difl"erent parts of the estuary and growth ...

  14. Do we need demographic data to forecast plant population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tredennick, Andrew T.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Adler, Peter B.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid environmental change has generated growing interest in forecasts of future population trajectories. Traditional population models built with detailed demographic observations from one study site can address the impacts of environmental change at particular locations, but are difficult to scale up to the landscape and regional scales relevant to management decisions. An alternative is to build models using population-level data that are much easier to collect over broad spatial scales than individual-level data. However, it is unknown whether models built using population-level data adequately capture the effects of density-dependence and environmental forcing that are necessary to generate skillful forecasts.Here, we test the consequences of aggregating individual responses when forecasting the population states (percent cover) and trajectories of four perennial grass species in a semi-arid grassland in Montana, USA. We parameterized two population models for each species, one based on individual-level data (survival, growth and recruitment) and one on population-level data (percent cover), and compared their forecasting accuracy and forecast horizons with and without the inclusion of climate covariates. For both models, we used Bayesian ridge regression to weight the influence of climate covariates for optimal prediction.In the absence of climate effects, we found no significant difference between the forecast accuracy of models based on individual-level data and models based on population-level data. Climate effects were weak, but increased forecast accuracy for two species. Increases in accuracy with climate covariates were similar between model types.In our case study, percent cover models generated forecasts as accurate as those from a demographic model. For the goal of forecasting, models based on aggregated individual-level data may offer a practical alternative to data-intensive demographic models. Long time series of percent cover data already exist

  15. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  16. Dynamics of Possible Late Heavy Bombardment Impactor Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dones, Luke

    2002-01-01

    The existence of the later lunar basins implies the existence of a massive dynamical reservoir that can store small bodies for some 6000 Myr after the Moon formed. We will discuss four recent models for such reservoirs. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  17. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    through time, 2) predicting the risk of by-catch of undersize individuals. The method demonstrates that it is possible to combine stock assessment and spatio-temporal dynamics, however at a high computational cost. The model can be extended by increasing its ecological fidelity, although computational...

  18. Ideal free distributions when resources undergo population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Křivan, Vlastimil

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 64, - (2003), s. 25-38 ISSN 0040-5809 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/03/0091; GA MŠk LA 101 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5007907 Keywords : Predator -prey dynamics * ideal free distribution * optimal foraging Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.261, year: 2003

  19. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  20. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base......Population dynamics often defy predictions based on empirical models, and explanations for noisy dynamics have ranged from deterministic chaos to environmental stochasticity. Transient (short-term) dynamics following disturbance or perturbation have recently gained empirical attention from...... succession have the highest potential for transient amplification and attenuation, whereas species with intermediate life history complexity have the lowest potential. We find ecological relationships between transients and asymptotic dynamics: faster-growing populations tend to have greater potential...

  1. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  2. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  3. Regional Population--Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graaff, T.; Florax, R.J.G.M.; van Oort, F.G.

    2012-01-01

    An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio-temporal dynamics of population

  4. Approximation of solutions to retarded differential equations with applications to population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bahuguna

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a retarded differential equation with applications to population dynamics. We establish the convergence of a finite-dimensional approximations of a unique solution, the existence and uniqueness of which are also proved in the process.

  5. Evolutionary game dynamics in populations with heterogenous structures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wes Maciejewski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections between individuals are more conducive to the spread of cooperative behaviours. In this article we show that such a conclusion largely depends on the individual-level interactions that take place. In particular, averaging payoffs garnered through game interactions rather than accumulating the payoffs can altogether remove the cooperative advantage of heterogeneous graphs while such a difference does not affect the outcome on homogeneous structures. In addition, the rate at which game interactions occur can alter the evolutionary outcome. Less interactions allow heterogeneous graphs to support more cooperation than homogeneous graphs, while higher rates of interactions make homogeneous and heterogeneous graphs virtually indistinguishable in their ability to support cooperation. Most importantly, we show that common measures of evolutionary advantage used in homogeneous populations, such as a comparison of the fixation probability of a rare mutant to that of the resident type, are no longer valid in heterogeneous populations. Heterogeneity causes a bias in where mutations occur in the population which affects the mutant's fixation probability. We derive the appropriate measures for heterogeneous populations that account for this bias.

  6. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  7. Semai Senoi fertility and population dynamics: Two-census method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fix, Alan G

    1989-01-01

    The fertility and parameters of population growth of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia are studied by using a two-census method based on nonstable population theory. Semai fertility is shown to be moderately high; female completed fertility is 7.42 children and the crude birth rate is greater than 0.050. Previous estimates of Semai mortality rates are also moderately high but are insufficient to balance birth; thus, the overall rate of growth is presently nearly 2%. Compared with an earlier description of the pre-1969 Semai population, fertility has increased markedly leading to a nearly threefold increase in the annual growth rate. Copyright © 1989 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  8. Neutral delay equations from and for population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Hadeler

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available For a certain class of neutral differential equations it is shown that these equations can serve as population models in the sense that they can be interpreted as special cases or caricatures of the standard Gurtin-MacCamy model for a population structured by age with birth and death rate depending on the total adult population. The delayed logistic equation does not belong to this class but the blowfly equation does. These neutral delay equations can be written as forward systems of an ordinary differential equation and a shift map. There are several quite distinct ways to perform the transformation to a system, either following a method of Hale or following more closely the renewal process. Similarly to the delayed logistic equation, the neutral equation (and the blowfly equation as a special case exhibit periodic solutions, although only for a restricted range of parameters.

  9. How Predation and Landscape Fragmentation Affect Vole Population Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard M.; Topping, Chris J.

    2011-01-01

    on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects......Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known...... population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based...

  10. Population dynamics and range expansion in nine-banded armadillos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Loughry

    Full Text Available Understanding why certain species can successfully colonize new areas while others do not is a central question in ecology. The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus is a conspicuous example of a successful invader, having colonized much of the southern United States in the last 200 years. We used 15 years (1992-2006 of capture-mark-recapture data from a population of armadillos in northern Florida in order to estimate, and examine relationships among, various demographic parameters that may have contributed to this ongoing range expansion. Modeling across a range of values for γ, the probability of juveniles surviving in the population until first capture, we found that population growth rates varied from 0.80 for γ = 0.1, to 1.03 for γ = 1.0. Growth rates approached 1.0 only when γ ≥ 0.80, a situation that might not occur commonly because of the high rate of disappearance of juveniles. Net reproductive rate increased linearly with γ, but life expectancy (estimated at 3 years was independent of γ. We also found that growth rates were lower during a 3-year period of hardwood removal that removed preferred habitat than in the years preceding or following. Life-table response experiment (LTRE analysis indicated the decrease in growth rate during logging was primarily due to changes in survival rates of adults. Likewise, elasticity analyses of both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates revealed that survival parameters were more influential on population growth than were those related to reproduction. Collectively, our results are consistent with recent theories regarding biological invasions which posit that populations no longer at the leading edge of range expansion do not exhibit strong positive growth rates, and that high reproductive output is less critical in predicting the likelihood of successful invasion than are life-history strategies that emphasize allocation of resources to future, as opposed to current

  11. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  12. Quantitative methods and socio-economic applications in GIS

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Fahui

    2014-01-01

    GIS AND BASIC SPATIAL ANALYSIS TASKSGetting Started with ArcGIS: Data Management and Basic Spatial Analysis ToolsSpatial and Attribute Data Management in ArcGISSpatial Analysis Tools in ArcGIS: Queries, Spatial Joins, and Map OverlaysCase Study 1: Mapping and Analyzing Population Density Pattern in Baton Rouge, LouisianaSummaryIdentifying Contiguous Polygons by Spatial Analysis ToolsMeasuring Distance and TimeMeasures of DistanceComputing Network Distance and TimeThe Distance Decay RuleCase Study 2: Computing Distances and Tra

  13. The dynamics of discrete populations and series of events

    CERN Document Server

    Hopcraft, Keith Iain; Ridley, Kevin D

    2014-01-01

    IntroductionReferencesStatistical PreliminariesIntroductionProbability DistributionsMoment-Generating FunctionsDiscrete ProcessesSeries of EventsSummaryFurther ReadingMarkovian Population ProcessesIntroductionBirths and DeathsImmigration and the Poisson ProcessThe Effect of MeasurementCorrelation of CountsSummaryFurther ReadingThe Birth-Death-Immigration ProcessIntroductionRate Equations for the ProcessEquation for the Generating FunctionGeneral Time-Dependent SolutionFluctuation Characteristics of a Birth-Death-Immigration PopulationSampling and Measurement ProcessesCorrelation of CountsSumma

  14. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  15. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrectedDaphniapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  16. The role of spatial dynamics in the stability, resilience, and productivity of an estuarine fish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, L A; Cadrin, S X; Secor, D H

    2010-03-01

    Understanding mechanisms that support long-term persistence of populations and sustainability of productive fisheries is a priority in fisheries management. Complex spatial structure within populations is increasingly viewed as a result of a plastic behavioral response that can have consequences for the dynamics of a population. We incorporated spatial structure and environmental forcing into a population model to examine the consequences for population stability (coefficient of variation of spawning-stock biomass), resilience (time to recover from disturbance), and productivity (spawning-stock biomass). White perch (Morone americana) served as a model species that exhibits simultaneous occurrence of migratory and resident groups within a population. We evaluated the role that contingents (behavioral groups within populations that exhibit divergent life histories) play in mitigating population responses to unfavorable environmental conditions. We used age-structured models that incorporated contingent-specific vital rates to simulate population dynamics of white perch in a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. The dynamics of the population were most sensitive to the proportion of individuals within each contingent and to a lesser degree to the level of correlation in recruitment between contingents in their responses to the environment. Increased representation of the dispersive contingent within populations resulted in increased productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Empirical evidence from the Patuxent River white perch population was consistent with these findings. A high negative correlation in resident and dispersive contingent recruitment dynamics resulted in increased productivity and stability, with little effect on resilience. With high positive correlation between contingent recruitments, the model showed similar responses in population productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Because contingent structure involves differing

  17. Population dynamics and angler exploitation of the unique muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

    2007-01-01

    A unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabits Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota. Little is known about its status, dynamics, and angler exploitation, and there is concern for the long-term viability of this population. We used intensive sampling and mark-recapture methods to quantify abundance, survival, growth, condition, age at maturity and fecundity and angler surveys to quantify angler pressure, catch rates, and exploitation. During our study, heavy rain washed out a dam constructed by beavers Castor canadensis which regulates the water level at the lake outlet, resulting in a nearly 50% reduction in surface area. We estimated a population size of 1,120 adult fish at the beginning of the study. No immediate reduction in population size was detected in response to the loss of lake area, although there was a gradual, but significant, decline in population size over the 2-year study. Adults grew less than 50 mm per year, and relative weight (W r) averaged roughly 80. Anglers were successful in catching, on average, two fish during a full day of angling, but harvest was negligible. Shoepack Lake muskellunge exhibit much slower growth rates and lower condition, but much higher densities and angler catch per unit effort (CPUE), than other muskellunge populations. The unique nature, limited distribution, and location of this population in a national park require special consideration for management. The results of this study provide the basis for assessing the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population through simulations of long-term population dynamics and genetically effective population size. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  18. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Numerous studies have reported increases in rodent populations following good rainfall (Nel 1978; Perrin & Swanepoel 1987; Bronner, Rau- ten bach & Meester 1988). This relationship is thought to be an indirect one where increased rainfall acts to increase cover and food supply. thus enabling rodents to reproduce (Neal.

  19. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, C.R.; Leech, David; Van de Pol, M.

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that

  20. Population dynamics and ecology of freshwater gastropods in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From November 1998 to October 2000, patterns of distribution and seasonal population fluctuations of snails and factors influencing them were investigated in six ... Bulinus globosus, B. tropicus, B. forskalii, Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Lymnaea natalensis, Ceratophallus natalensis, Gyraulus costulatus, Melanoides tuberculata, ...

  1. Population dynamics of Lemniscomys rosalia (Muridae: Rodentia) in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of food supplementation on a population of Lemniscomys rosalia were studied experimentally in a grassland habitat in Swaziland. Food was added bi-weekly to two I-ha grids, while a single I-ha grid served as the control. Rodent traps were set monthly over a 12 month period. Food supplementation may have ...

  2. Population dynamics of Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    L. L. Severinghaus

    1997-01-01

    Monthly visits to Lanyu Island have been made to study Lanyu Scops Owls (Otus elegans botelensis) since 1986. This population has been surveyed by regular census and playback counts, by color banding, by monitoring the survival, reproduction and movements of individual owls, and by mapping and documenting the change in nest trees.

  3. The larval development and population dynamics of Derocheilocaris ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seven larval stages of Derocheilocaris algoensis have been described and appear to be identical with those of D. typica from North America. This stresses the remarkable conservativeness of this subclass of Crustacea. The population biology of D. algoensis has been studied over 16 months and reproduction has been ...

  4. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  5. A new geographical gradient in vole population dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tkadlec, Emil; Stenseth, N. C.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 268, č. 1476 (2001), s. 1547-1552 ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA524/01/1316; GA AV ČR KSK6005114 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6093917 Keywords : common vole * density dependence * population cycles Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.192, year: 2001

  6. Mathematical Modeling in Population Dynamics: The Case of Single ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kofimereku

    formulated by the logistic growth function, where ε is the intrinsic rate of increase and )0(. ≥. µ represents the effect of intraspecific competition on the reproduction rate. Fisher (1937) first proposed this equation as a model in population genetics to describe the process of spatial spread when mutant individuals with higher ...

  7. on the apllication of single specie dynamic population model 306

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    used to compare the predicted values and observed values in order to find out whether there is significant difference between the observed and predicted values using these two models. Keywords: Birth rate, sustainable population, overcrowding, harvesting, independent t-test and ..... 95% confidence interval of the.

  8. Effective population size and evolutionary dynamics in outbred ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tion is too fast to be due to the de novo appearance of bene- ficial mutations. Likewise, the relatively similar .... lation size (Ne), which behaves in a similar fashion to N in the Wright–Fisher model. In some cases ... variation, giving the appearance that the population is smaller than traditional theory would suggest. In our ...

  9. The significance of nonviable eggs for Daphnia population dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, M.; Vijverberg, J.

    1995-01-01

    Egg mortality was studied in populations of Daphnia galeata, Daphnia cucullata, and the hybrid between these species. In Tjeukemeer, a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands, egg mortality in daphnids manifested itself as an apparent increase in the frequency of eggs in the early developmental

  10. How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalkvist, Trine; Sibly, Richard; Topping, Christopher John

    2011-01-01

    to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered...

  11. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus: a comparison between central and range edge populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita M Araújo

    Full Text Available Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental

  12. Teaching Tectonics to Undergraduates with Web GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A.; Sahagian, D. L.; Rutzmoser, S.

    2013-12-01

    Geospatial reasoning skills provide a means for manipulating, interpreting, and explaining structured information and are involved in higher-order cognitive processes that include problem solving and decision-making. Appropriately designed tools, technologies, and curriculum can support spatial learning. We present Web-based visualization and analysis tools developed with Javascript APIs to enhance tectonic curricula while promoting geospatial thinking and scientific inquiry. The Web GIS interface integrates graphics, multimedia, and animations that allow users to explore and discover geospatial patterns that are not easily recognized. Features include a swipe tool that enables users to see underneath layers, query tools useful in exploration of earthquake and volcano data sets, a subduction and elevation profile tool which facilitates visualization between map and cross-sectional views, drafting tools, a location function, and interactive image dragging functionality on the Web GIS. The Web GIS platform is independent and can be implemented on tablets or computers. The GIS tool set enables learners to view, manipulate, and analyze rich data sets from local to global scales, including such data as geology, population, heat flow, land cover, seismic hazards, fault zones, continental boundaries, and elevation using two- and three- dimensional visualization and analytical software. Coverages which allow users to explore plate boundaries and global heat flow processes aided learning in a Lehigh University Earth and environmental science Structural Geology and Tectonics class and are freely available on the Web.

  13. Towards a Conceptual Framework for WikiGIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wided Batita

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available As an emerging complex concept, GeoDesign requires an innovative theoretical basis, tools, supports and practices. For this reason, we propose a new concept, “WikiGIS”, designed to answer some dimensions of the GeoDesign process. WikiGIS focuses on the needs of GeoDesign, but we leave the door open for future improvement when tested in other areas that may have additional needs. WikiGIS is built on Web 2.0 technologies—and primarily on wiki—to manage the tracking of participants’ editing (i.e., managing the contributions history. It also offers GIS functions for geoprocessing and a design-based approach for sketching proposals. One of the main strengths of WikiGIS is its ability to manage the traceability of contributions with an easy and dynamical access, data quality and deltification. The core of this paper consists of presenting a conceptual framework for WikiGIS using UML diagrams. A user interface is presented later to show how our WikiGIS proposal works. This interface is simply a means to illustrate the concepts underlying WikiGIS.

  14. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  15. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  16. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessia Uboni

    Full Text Available Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species

  17. A DYNAMICAL SIGNATURE OF MULTIPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS IN 47 TUCANAE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richer, Harvey B.; Heyl, Jeremy; Anderson, Jay; Kalirai, Jason S.; Shara, Michael M.; Dotter, Aaron; Fahlman, Gregory G.; Rich, R. Michael

    2013-01-01

    Based on the width of its main sequence, and an actual observed split when viewed through particular filters, it is widely accepted that 47 Tucanae contains multiple stellar populations. In this contribution, we divide the main sequence of 47 Tuc into four color groups, which presumably represent stars of various chemical compositions. The kinematic properties of each of these groups are explored via proper motions, and a strong signal emerges of differing proper-motion anisotropies with differing main-sequence color; the bluest main-sequence stars exhibit the largest proper-motion anisotropy which becomes undetectable for the reddest stars. In addition, the bluest stars are also the most centrally concentrated. A similar analysis for Small Magellanic Cloud stars, which are located in the background of 47 Tuc on our frames, yields none of the anisotropy exhibited by the 47 Tuc stars. We discuss implications of these results for possible formation scenarios of the various populations.

  18. The dynamics of endemic malaria in populations of varying size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2001-10-01

    A mathematical model for endemic malaria involving variable human and mosquito populations is analysed. A threshold parameter R 0 exists and the disease can persist if and only if R 0 exceeds 1. R 0 is seen to be a generalisation of the basic reproduction ratio associated with the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission. The disease free equilibrium always exist and is globally stable when R 0 is below 1. A perturbation analysis is used to approximate the endemic equilibrium in the important case where the disease related death rate is nonzero. A diffusion approximation is used to approximate the quasi-stationary distribution of the associated stochastic model. Numerical simulations show that when R 0 is distinctly greater than 1, the endemic deterministic equilibrium is globally stable. Furthermore, in quasi-stationarity, the stochastic process undergoes oscillations about a mean population whose size can be approximated by the stable endemic deterministic equilibrium. (author)

  19. Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

    2014-01-01

    Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

  20. Breeding site heterogeneity reduces variability in frog recruitment and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffery, Rebecca M.; Eby, Lisa A.; Maxell, Bryce A.; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Environmental stochasticity can have profound effects on the dynamics and viability of wild populations, and habitat heterogeneity provides one mechanism by which populations may be buffered against the negative effects of environmental fluctuations. Heterogeneity in breeding pond hydroperiod across the landscape may allow amphibian populations to persist despite variable interannual precipitation. We examined recruitment dynamics over 10 yr in a high-elevation Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) population that breeds in ponds with a variety of hydroperiods. We combined these data with matrix population models to quantify the consequences of heterogeneity in pond hydroperiod on net recruitment (i.e. number of metamorphs produced) and population growth rates. We compared our heterogeneous system to hypothetical homogeneous environments with only ephemeral ponds, only semi-permanent ponds, and only permanent ponds. We also examined the effects of breeding pond habitat loss on population growth rates. Most eggs were laid in permanent ponds each year, but survival to metamorphosis was highest in the semi-permanent ponds. Recruitment success varied by both year and pond type. Net recruitment and stochastic population growth rate were highest under a scenario with homogeneous semi-permanent ponds, but variability in recruitment was lowest in the scenario with the observed heterogeneity in hydroperiods. Loss of pond habitat decreased population growth rate, with greater decreases associated with loss of permanent and semi-permanent habitat. The presence of a diversity of pond hydroperiods on the landscape will influence population dynamics, including reducing variability in recruitment in an uncertain climatic future.

  1. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, Marcus de M; Patané, José S L; Taylor, Maria L; Gómez, Beatriz L; Theodoro, Raquel C; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M; Felipe, Maria S S; Barker, Bridget M

    2016-06-01

    Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this important pathogen complex.

  2. Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thuiller, Wilfried; Münkemüller, Tamara; Schiffers, Katja H; Georges, Damien; Dullinger, Stefan; Eckhart, Vincent M; Edwards, Thomas C; Gravel, Dominique; Kunstler, Georges; Merow, Cory; Moore, Kara; Piedallu, Christian; Vissault, Steve; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Zurell, Damaris; Schurr, Frank M

    2014-12-01

    Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate ( r ) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K ) and population density ( N ) relate to occurrence probability ( P occ ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, Western US, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P occ , while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P occ . Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence

  3. Worldwide Phylogenetic Distributions and Population Dynamics of the Genus Histoplasma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Maria L.; Gómez, Beatriz L.; Theodoro, Raquel C.; de Hoog, Sybren; Engelthaler, David M.; Zancopé-Oliveira, Rosely M.; Felipe, Maria S. S.

    2016-01-01

    Background Histoplasma capsulatum comprises a worldwide complex of saprobiotic fungi mainly found in nitrogen/phosphate (often bird guano) enriched soils. The microconidia of Histoplasma species may be inhaled by mammalian hosts, and is followed by a rapid conversion to yeast that can persist in host tissues causing histoplasmosis, a deep pulmonary/systemic mycosis. Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato is a complex of at least eight clades geographically distributed as follows: Australia, Netherlands, Eurasia, North American classes 1 and 2 (NAm 1 and NAm 2), Latin American groups A and B (LAm A and LAm B) and Africa. With the exception of the Eurasian cluster, those clades are considered phylogenetic species. Methodology/Principal Findings Increased Histoplasma sampling (n = 234) resulted in the revision of the phylogenetic distribution and population structure using 1,563 aligned nucleotides from four protein-coding regions. The LAm B clade appears to be divided into at least two highly supported clades, which are geographically restricted to either Colombia/Argentina or Brazil respectively. Moreover, a complex population genetic structure was identified within LAm A clade supporting multiple monophylogenetic species, which could be driven by rapid host or environmental adaptation (~0.5 MYA). We found two divergent clades, which include Latin American isolates (newly named as LAm A1 and LAm A2), harboring a cryptic cluster in association with bats. Conclusions/Significance At least six new phylogenetic species are proposed in the Histoplasma species complex supported by different phylogenetic and population genetics methods, comprising LAm A1, LAm A2, LAm B1, LAm B2, RJ and BAC-1 phylogenetic species. The genetic isolation of Histoplasma could be a result of differential dispersion potential of naturally infected bats and other mammals. In addition, the present study guides isolate selection for future population genomics and genome wide association studies in this

  4. Modelling the effects of climate change on weed population dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    García de León Hernández, David

    2014-01-01

    As the human population continues to increase –it will have surpassed 9 billion people by 2050- food supply must rise in order to sustain people. Climate change represents a threat in the provision of sufficient, secure and nutritious nourishment for everyone. Possible consequences of climate change include a reduction in global agro-ecosystem production, with Spain as one of the most affected countries in Europe. Accordingly, little is known about the possible effects on weed ...

  5. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  6. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

    Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the

  7. Effects of temporal variation in temperature and density dependence on insect population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Understanding effects of environmental variation on insect populations is important in light of predictions about increasing future climatic variability. In order to understand the effects of changing environmental variation on population dynamics and life history evolution in insects one would need...

  8. The population and seasonal dynamics of weevils developing in the soil of birch stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    E. Kula

    2003-01-01

    Curculionidae developing in the soil of birch stands in an air-polluted region were classified using the method of soil photoeclectors on the basis of their population dynamics (1986-2000) and phenology of their emergence from where they developed. In the course of 15 years we saw two evident culminations in the population density of Polydrusus undatus...

  9. Combining a weed traits database with a population dynamics model predicts shifts in weed communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Storkey, Jonathan; Holst, Niels; Bøjer, Ole Mission

    2015-01-01

    , populated and analysed, initially using data for 19 common European weeds, to begin to consolidate trait data in a single repository. The initial choice of traits was driven by the requirements of empirical models of weed population dynamics to identify correlations between traits and model parameters...

  10. Bacterial population dynamics during the ensiling of Medicago sativa (alfalfa) and subsequent exposure to air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aims: To describe, at high resolution, the bacterial population dynamics and chemical transformations during the ensiling of alfalfa and subsequent exposure to air. Methods and Results: Samples of alfalfa, ensiled alfalfa, and silage exposed to air were collected and their bacterial population stru...

  11. Proceedings: population dynamics, impacts, and integrated management of forest defoliating insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.L. McManus; A.M., eds. Liebhold

    1998-01-01

    This publication contains 52 research papers about the population ecology and management of forest insect defoliators. These papers were presented at a joint meeting of working parties S7.03.06, "Integrated Management of Forest Defoliating Insects", and S7.03.07, "Population dynamics of forest insects", of the International Union of Forestry...

  12. Size at hatching determines population dynamics and response to harvesting in cannibalistic fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooten, van T.; Andersson, J.; Bystrom, P.; Persson, L.; Roos, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    We hypothesize that size at hatching strongly affects population dynamics of cannibalistic fish species and is a crucial determinant of how populations respond to selective removal of large individuals (harvesting). We use a mechanistic mathematical model to study the relation between hatching size

  13. Population dynamics of mallards breeding in eastern Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugger, Bruce D.; Coluccy, John M.; Dugger, Katie M.; Fox, Trevor T.; Kraege, Donald K.; Petrie, Mark J.

    2016-01-01

    Variation in regional population trends for mallards breeding in the western United States indicates that additional research into factors that influence demographics could contribute to management and understanding the population demographics of mallards across North America. We estimated breeding incidence and adult female, nest, and brood survival in eastern Washington in 2006 and 2007 by monitoring female mallards with radio telemetry and tested how those parameters were influenced by study year (2006 vs. 2007), landscape type (agricultural vs. natural), and age (second year [SY] vs. after second year [ASY]). We also investigated the effects of female body condition and capture date on breeding incidence, and nest initiation date and hatch date on nest and brood survival, respectively. We included population parameters in a stage-based demographic model and conducted a perturbation analysis to identify which vital rates were most influential on population growth rate (λ). Adult female survival was best modeled with a constant weekly survival rate (0.994, SE = 0.003). Breeding incidence differed between years and was higher for birds in better body condition. Nest survival was higher for ASY females (0.276, SE = 0.118) than SY females (0.066, SE = 0.052), and higher on publicly managed lands (0.383, SE = 0.212) than agricultural (0.114, SE = 0.058) landscapes. Brood survival was best modeled with a constant rate for the 7-week monitoring period (0.50, SE = 0.155). The single variable having the greatest influence on λ was non-breeding season survival, but the combination of parameters from the breeding grounds explained a greater percent of the variance in λ. Mallard population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in non-breeding survival, nest success, brood survival, and breeding incidence. Future management decisions should focus on activities that improve these vital rates if managers want to increase the production of

  14. Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

    2016-02-01

    Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  16. demoniche – an R-package for simulating spatially-explicit population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Swab, Rebecca Marie; Keith, David A.

    2012-01-01

    demoniche is a freely available R-package which simulates stochastic population dynamics in multiple populations of a species. A demographic model projects population sizes utilizing several transition matrices that can represent impacts on species growth. The demoniche model offers options...... on future population sizes, extinction probabilities, and range shifts of species....... for setting demographic stochasticity, carrying capacity, and dispersal. The demographic projection in each population is linked to spatially-explicit niche values, which affect the species growth. With the demoniche package it is possible to compare the influence of scenarios of environmental changes...

  17. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  18. The long-term population dynamics of common wasps in their native and invaded range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, Philip J; Haywood, John; Archer, Michael E; Shortall, Chris R

    2017-03-01

    Populations of introduced species are often thought to perform differently, or experience different population dynamics, in their introduced range compared to their native habitat. Differences between habitats in climate, competition or natural enemies may result in populations with varying density dependence and population dynamics. We examined the long-term population dynamics of the invasive common wasp, Vespula vulgaris, in its native range in England and its invaded range in New Zealand. We used 39 years of wasp density data from four sites in England, and 23 years of data from six sites in New Zealand. Wasp population time series was examined using partial rate correlation functions. Gompertz population models and multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models were fitted, incorporating climatic variation. Gompertz models successfully explained 59-66% of the variation in wasp abundance between years. Density dependence in wasp populations appeared to act similarly in both the native and invaded range, with wasp abundance in the previous year as the most important variable in predicting intrinsic rate of increase (r). No evidence of cyclic population dynamics was observed. Both the Gompertz and MARSS models highlighted the role of weather conditions in each country as significant predictors of annual wasp abundance. The temporal evolution of wasp populations at all sites was best modelled jointly using a single latent dynamic factor for local trends, with the inclusion of a latent spring weather covariate. That same parsimonious multivariate model structure was optimal in both the native and invaded range. Density dependence is overwhelmingly important in predicting wasp densities and 'wasp years' in both the native and invaded range. Spring weather conditions in both countries have a major influence, probably through their impact on wasp colony initiation and early development. The population dynamics in the native range and invaded range show no

  19. Cloud GIS Based Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bediroğlu, G.; Colak, H. E.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we generated a Cloud GIS based watershed management system with using Cloud Computing architecture. Cloud GIS is used as SAAS (Software as a Service) and DAAS (Data as a Service). We applied GIS analysis on cloud in terms of testing SAAS and deployed GIS datasets on cloud in terms of DAAS. We used Hybrid cloud computing model in manner of using ready web based mapping services hosted on cloud (World Topology, Satellite Imageries). We uploaded to system after creating geodatabases including Hydrology (Rivers, Lakes), Soil Maps, Climate Maps, Rain Maps, Geology and Land Use. Watershed of study area has been determined on cloud using ready-hosted topology maps. After uploading all the datasets to systems, we have applied various GIS analysis and queries. Results shown that Cloud GIS technology brings velocity and efficiency for watershed management studies. Besides this, system can be easily implemented for similar land analysis and management studies.

  20. CLOUD GIS BASED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bediroğlu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we generated a Cloud GIS based watershed management system with using Cloud Computing architecture. Cloud GIS is used as SAAS (Software as a Service and DAAS (Data as a Service. We applied GIS analysis on cloud in terms of testing SAAS and deployed GIS datasets on cloud in terms of DAAS. We used Hybrid cloud computing model in manner of using ready web based mapping services hosted on cloud (World Topology, Satellite Imageries. We uploaded to system after creating geodatabases including Hydrology (Rivers, Lakes, Soil Maps, Climate Maps, Rain Maps, Geology and Land Use. Watershed of study area has been determined on cloud using ready-hosted topology maps. After uploading all the datasets to systems, we have applied various GIS analysis and queries. Results shown that Cloud GIS technology brings velocity and efficiency for watershed management studies. Besides this, system can be easily implemented for similar land analysis and management studies.

  1. Harnessing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to enable community-oriented primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazemore, Andrew; Phillips, Robert L; Miyoshi, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Despite growing acceptance and implementation of geographic information systems (GIS) in the public health arena, its utility for clinical population management and coordination by leaders in a primary care clinical health setting has been neither fully realized nor evaluated. In a primary care network of clinics charged with caring for vulnerable urban communities, we used GIS to (1) integrate and analyze clinical (practice management) data and population (census) data and (2) generate distribution, service area, and population penetration maps of those clinics. We then conducted qualitative evaluation of the responses of primary care clinic leaders, administrators, and community board members to analytic mapping of their clinic and regional population data. Practice management data were extracted, geocoded, and mapped to reveal variation between actual clinical service areas and the medically underserved areas for which these clinics received funding, which was surprising to center leaders. In addition, population penetration analyses were performed to depict patterns of utilization. Qualitative assessments of staff response to the process of mapping clinical and population data revealed enthusiastic engagement in the process, which led to enhanced community comprehension, new ideas about data use, and an array of applications to improve their clinical revenue. However, they also revealed barriers to further adoption, including time, expense, and technical expertise, which could limit the use of GIS and mapping unless economies of scale across clinics, the use of web technology, and the availability of dynamic mapping tools could be realized. Analytic mapping was enthusiastically received and practically applied in the primary care setting, and was readily comprehended by clinic leaders for innovative purposes. This is a tool of particular relevance amid primary care safety-net expansion and increased funding of health information technology diffusion in these

  2. Application of GIS from the multifunctionality aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko A. Borisov

    2011-04-01

    Topographic maps have existed for many years in more or less similar or the same traditional form. By creating the basic data base about space through the application of GIS technology, a wide range of possibilities for dynamic selection of content appears. This content will further be shown on the screen or as a drawing on a piece of paper. The aspects of multidisciplinarity promote topographic data base as a significant part of general spatial data infrastructure. Application from the multiscale aspect There are different information levels which differ among themselves in quantity and content of data necessary for various levels of observation management and decision making. One of the principal tasks which emerges is a choice of the basic scale and resolution of the display for which the data are gathered. In cartography, that is a scale of 1:25,000, based on which the topographic map (TM is created. Mutual complement of GIS and WWW will completely change the classic delivery of spatial data. Various topographic and thematic maps will be created and obtained from the unique data base. Application from the multithematic aspect The main objective of the formation of spatial data infrastructure is the creation of the standard GIS platform but also the possibility of multi purpose application of GIS for environment (farming, forestry, waterpower engineering land development (commercial and business, itinerary analysis, tracing of retail and wholesale routes distributional nets (shops and warehouse locations media and marketing planning (locations, sales territory, sales prospects, market analysis according to users, finances - insurance (from the users aspect, investors and areas of low/high risk, healthcare (general healthcare, appearance of epidemic and its spreading and non-productive activities (tourism, archaeology, environment protection. Application from the aspect of multidisplay Once formed, the spatial data base, or GIS, should offer to the user a lot of graphic

  3. Molecular characterization of microbial population dynamics during sildenafil citrate degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Felice, Bruna; Argenziano, Carolina; Guida, Marco; Trifuoggi, Marco; Russo, Francesca; Condorelli, Valerio; Inglese, Mafalda

    2009-02-01

    Little is known about pharmaceutical and personal care products pollutants (PPCPs), but there is a growing interest in how they might impact the environment and microbial communities. The widespread use of Viagra (sildenafil citrate) has attracted great attention because of the high usage rate, the unpredictable disposal and the unknown potential effects on wildlife and the environment. Until now information regarding the impact of Viagra on microbial community in water environment has not been reported. In this research, for the first time, the genetic profile of the microbial community, developing in a Viagra polluted water environment, was evaluated by means of the 16S and 18S rRNA genes, for bacteria and fungi, respectively, amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and separated using the denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique. The DGGE results revealed a complex microbial community structure with most of the population persisting throughout the experimental period. DNA sequences from bands observed in the different denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles exhibited the highest degree of identity to uncultured bacteria and fungi found previously mainly in polluted environmental and treating bioreactors. Biotransformation ability of sildenafil citrate by the microbial pool was studied and the capability of these microorganisms to detoxify a polluted water ecosystem was assessed. The bacterial and fungal population was able to degrade sildenafil citrate entirely. Additionally, assays conducted on Daphnia magna, algal growth inhibition assay and cell viability determination on HepG2 human cells showed that biotransformation products obtained from the bacterial growth was not toxic. The higher removal efficiency for sildenafil citrate and the lack of toxicity by the biotransformation products obtained showed that the microbial community identified here represented a composite population that might have biotechnological relevance to

  4. Reinforcement learning in complementarity game and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, Jürgen; Li, Wei

    2014-02-01

    We systematically test and compare different reinforcement learning schemes in a complementarity game [J. Jost and W. Li, Physica A 345, 245 (2005)] played between members of two populations. More precisely, we study the Roth-Erev, Bush-Mosteller, and SoftMax reinforcement learning schemes. A modified version of Roth-Erev with a power exponent of 1.5, as opposed to 1 in the standard version, performs best. We also compare these reinforcement learning strategies with evolutionary schemes. This gives insight into aspects like the issue of quick adaptation as opposed to systematic exploration or the role of learning rates.

  5. Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakesley, J.A.; Seamans, M.E.; Conner, M.M.; Franklin, A.B.; White, Gary C.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Munton, T.E.; Shaw, D.W.H.; Keane, J.J.; Steger, G.N.; McDonald, T.L.

    2010-01-01

    The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data

  6. Computational Analysis of Complex Population Dynamical Model with Arbitrary Order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazal Haq

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the approximation of solution for a fractional order biological population model. The fractional derivative is considered in the Caputo sense. By using Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM, we construct a base function and provide deformation equation of higher order in a simple equation. The considered scheme gives us a solution in the form of rapidly convergent infinite series. Some examples are used to show the efficiency of the method. The results show that LADM is efficient and accurate for solving such types of nonlinear problems.

  7. Estimating hurricane hazards using a GIS system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Taramelli

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to the Multi-Hazard model method, with reference to hurricanes. This approach has three components: data integration, hazard assessment and score calculation to estimate elements at risk such as affected area and affected population. First, spatial data integration issues within a GIS environment, such as geographical scales and data models, are addressed. Particularly, the integration of physical parameters and population data is achieved linking remotely sensed data with a high resolution population distribution in GIS. In order to assess the number of affected people, involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is basic. Second, specific multi-hazard tasks, such as hazard behaviour simulation and elements at risk assessment, are composed in order to understand complex hazard and provide support for decision making. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach herein presented can be used to assist emergency management of hurricane consequences, in theory and in practice.

  8. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  9. The Influence of Individual Variability on Zooplankton Population Dynamics under Different Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, R.; Liu, H.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how biological components respond to environmental changes could be insightful to predict ecosystem trajectories under different climate scenarios. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems and changes in their dynamics could have major impact on ecosystem structure. We developed an individual-based model of a common coastal calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa to examine how environmental factors affect zooplankton population dynamics and explore the role of individual variability in sustaining population under various environmental conditions consisting of temperature, food concentration and salinity. Total abundance, egg production and proportion of survival were used to measure population success. Results suggested population benefits from high level of individual variability under extreme environmental conditions including unfavorable temperature, salinity, as well as low food concentration, and selection on fast-growers becomes stronger with increasing individual variability and increasing environmental stress. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature, food concentration, salinity and individual variability have significant effects on survival of A. tonsa population. These results suggest that environmental factors have great influence on zooplankton population, and individual variability has important implications for population survivability under unfavorable conditions. Given that marine ecosystems are at risk from drastic environmental changes, understanding how individual variability sustains populations could increase our capability to predict population dynamics in a changing environment.

  10. Patterns and processes of population dynamics with fluctuating habitat size: a case study of a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools

    OpenAIRE

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Shirotori, Wakako; Kawai, Momoka; Noda, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    The logistic model is a fundamental population model often used as the basis for analyzing wildlife population dynamics. In the classic logistic model, however, population dynamics may be difficult to characterize if habitat size is temporally variable because population density can vary at a constant abundance, which results in variable strength of density-dependent feedback for a given population size. To incorporate habitat size variability, we developed a general population model in which...

  11. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  12. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  13. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  14. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  15. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  16. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  17. POPULATION PARAMETERS STUDY ON Xylopia brasiliensis Sprengel POPULATION DYNAMIC IN A GALLERY FOREST AT ITUTINGA – MG –BRAZIL

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Senna Corrêa; Eduardo Van Den Berg

    2002-01-01

    It was studied the population dynamics of Xylopia brasiliensis between 1997 and 1999 in a gallery forest (Mata de Camargos) with an area of 7,5 ha in Itutinga, Minas Gerais state, Brazil. The population rates were related to the density and basal area of the species and the tree community.It was found significant differences between Blocks and Sectors envolving recruitment, change in basal area, increase and decrease. It was also studied the influence of density and basal area of Xylopia bras...

  18. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  19. The population and evolutionary dynamics of homologous gene recombination in bacterial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce R Levin

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In bacteria, recombination is a rare event, not a part of the reproductive process. Nevertheless, recombination -- broadly defined to include the acquisition of genes from external sources, i.e., horizontal gene transfer (HGT -- plays a central role as a source of variation for adaptive evolution in many species of bacteria. Much of niche expansion, resistance to antibiotics and other environmental stresses, virulence, and other characteristics that make bacteria interesting and problematic, is achieved through the expression of genes and genetic elements obtained from other populations of bacteria of the same and different species, as well as from eukaryotes and archaea. While recombination of homologous genes among members of the same species has played a central role in the development of the genetics and molecular biology of bacteria, the contribution of homologous gene recombination (HGR to bacterial evolution is not at all clear. Also, not so clear are the selective pressures responsible for the evolution and maintenance of transformation, the only bacteria-encoded form of HGR. Using a semi-stochastic simulation of mutation, recombination, and selection within bacterial populations and competition between populations, we explore (1 the contribution of HGR to the rate of adaptive evolution in these populations and (2 the conditions under which HGR will provide a bacterial population a selective advantage over non-recombining or more slowly recombining populations. The results of our simulation indicate that, under broad conditions: (1 HGR occurring at rates in the range anticipated for bacteria like Streptococcus pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Haemophilus influenzae, and Bacillus subtilis will accelerate the rate at which a population adapts to environmental conditions; (2 once established in a population, selection for this capacity to increase rates of adaptive evolution can maintain bacteria-encoded mechanisms of recombination and prevent

  20. Population dynamics of the Kaminuriak caribou herd, 1968 - 1985

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C. Heard

    1986-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kaminuraik caribou herd apparently declined from about 120 000 animals in 1950 to 63 000 in 1968. Beginning in 1968 documentation of herd trend was based on the estimate of the number of breeding (pregnant and post-partum females on the calving ground during the birth peak. It appeared as if we understood the basic population processes responsible for the decline when we correctly predicted a drop from 14 800 breeding females in 1977 to 13 000 in 1980. However a three-fold increase, to 41 000 breeding females in 1982, and continued growth thereafter, was unanticipated. Most of that increase must have resulted from an immigration of cows to the herd's traditional calving ground around Kaminuriak Lake, although increased birth rates, and increased survival rates also contributed to herd growth. Immigrant cows probably came from the northeastern mainland of the NWT

  1. Optimal superadiabatic population transfer and gates by dynamical phase corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vepsäläinen, A.; Danilin, S.; Paraoanu, G. S.

    2018-04-01

    In many quantum technologies adiabatic processes are used for coherent quantum state operations, offering inherent robustness to errors in the control parameters. The main limitation is the long operation time resulting from the requirement of adiabaticity. The superadiabatic method allows for faster operation, by applying counterdiabatic driving that corrects for excitations resulting from the violation of the adiabatic condition. In this article we show how to construct the counterdiabatic Hamiltonian in a system with forbidden transitions by using two-photon processes and how to correct for the resulting time-dependent ac-Stark shifts in order to enable population transfer with unit fidelity. We further demonstrate that superadiabatic stimulated Raman passage can realize a robust unitary NOT-gate between the ground state and the second excited state of a three-level system. The results can be readily applied to a three-level transmon with the ladder energy level structure.

  2. Optimum survival strategies against zombie infestations - a population dynamics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Bruno

    2014-03-01

    We model a zombie infestation by three coupled ODEs that jointly describe the time evolution of three populations: regular humans, zombies, and survivors (humans that have survived at least one zombie encounter). This can be generalized to take into account more levels of expertise and/or skill degradation. We compute the fixed points, and stability thereof, that correspond to one of three possible outcomes: human extinction, zombie extermination or, if one allows for a human non-zero birth-rate, co-habitation. We obtain analytically the optimum strategy for humans in terms of the model's parameters (essentially, whether to flee and hide, or fight). Zombies notwithstanding, this can also be seen as a toy model for infections of immune system cells, such as CD4+ T cells in AIDS, and macrophages in tuberculosis, whereby cells are both the target of infection, and mediate the acquired immunity response against the same infection. I thank FAPERJ for financial support.

  3. Dynamic changes of Plasmodium vivax population structure in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jung-Mi; Lee, Jinyoung; Cho, Pyo-Yun; Kim, Tae Im; Sohn, Woon-Mok; Park, Jae-Won; Kim, Tong-Soo; Na, Byoung-Kuk

    2016-11-01

    The vivax malaria epidemic has persisted in South Korea since its reemergence in 1993. Although there has been a significant decrease in the number of malaria cases in recent years, vivax malaria is still a major public health concern. To gain in-depth insight into the genetic makeup of Korean Plasmodium vivax, we analyzed polymorphic patterns of two major antigens, merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1) and MSP-3α, in 255 Korean P. vivax isolates collected over an extended period from 1998 to 2013. Combinational genetic analysis of polymorphic patterns of MSP-1 and MSP-3α in the isolates suggests that the P. vivax population in South Korea has been diversifying rapidly, with the appearance of parasites with new genotypes, despite the recent reduction of disease incidence. These results highlight the importance of molecular epidemiological investigations to supervise the genetic variation of the parasite in South Korea. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Vernon C.; Sargeant, Glen A.; Wiedmann, Brett P.

    2018-01-01

    Selection of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (<0.04 [upper 90% CI]). Similar survival rates of female bighorn sheep from female bighorn sheep from British Columbia and Montana, coupled with greater recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype (λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

  5. Elucidating Cellular Population Dynamics by Molecular Density Function Perturbations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanneer Malai Perumal

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies performed at single-cell resolution have demonstrated the physiological significance of cell-to-cell variability. Various types of mathematical models and systems analyses of biological networks have further been used to gain a better understanding of the sources and regulatory mechanisms of such variability. In this work, we present a novel sensitivity analysis method, called molecular density function perturbation (MDFP, for the dynamical analysis of cellular heterogeneity. The proposed analysis is based on introducing perturbations to the density or distribution function of the cellular state variables at specific time points, and quantifying how such perturbations affect the state distribution at later time points. We applied the MDFP analysis to a model of a signal transduction pathway involving TRAIL (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand-induced apoptosis in HeLa cells. The MDFP analysis shows that caspase-8 activation regulates the timing of the switch-like increase of cPARP (cleaved poly(ADP-ribose polymerase, an indicator of apoptosis. Meanwhile, the cell-to-cell variability in the commitment to apoptosis depends on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP and events following MOMP, including the release of Smac (second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases and cytochrome c from mitochondria, the inhibition of XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis by Smac, and the formation of the apoptosome.

  6. Population-Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Horizontal Gene Transfer by Natural Transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Junwen; Lu, Ting

    2016-01-05

    Natural transformation is a major mechanism of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and plays an essential role in bacterial adaptation, evolution, and speciation. Although its molecular underpinnings have been increasingly revealed, natural transformation is not well characterized in terms of its quantitative ecological roles. Here, by using Neisseria gonorrhoeae as an example, we developed a population-dynamic model for natural transformation and analyzed its dynamic characteristics with nonlinear tools and simulations. Our study showed that bacteria capable of natural transformation can display distinct population behaviors ranging from extinction to coexistence and to bistability, depending on their HGT rate and selection coefficient. With the model, we also illustrated the roles of environmental DNA sources-active secretion and passive release-in impacting population dynamics. Additionally, by constructing and utilizing a stochastic version of the model, we examined how noise shapes the steady and dynamic behaviors of the system. Notably, we found that distinct waiting time statistics for HGT events, namely a power-law distribution, an exponential distribution, and a mix of the both, are associated with the dynamics in the regimes of extinction, coexistence, and bistability accordingly. This work offers a quantitative illustration of natural transformation by revealing its complex population dynamics and associated characteristics, therefore advancing our ecological understanding of natural transformation as well as HGT in general. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Analysis of Ant Colony Optimization and Population-Based Evolutionary Algorithms on Dynamic Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lissovoi, Andrei

    the dynamic optimum for finite alphabets up to size μ, while MMAS is able to do so for any finite alphabet size. Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms on Maze. We prove that while a (1 + λ) EA is unable to track the optimum of the dynamic fitness function Maze for offspring population size up to λ = O(n1-ε......This thesis presents new running time analyses of nature-inspired algorithms on various dynamic problems. It aims to identify and analyse the features of algorithms and problem classes which allow efficient optimization to occur in the presence of dynamic behaviour. We consider the following...... settings: λ-MMAS on Dynamic Shortest Path Problems. We investigate how in-creasing the number of ants simulated per iteration may help an ACO algorithm to track optimum in a dynamic problem. It is shown that while a constant number of ants per-vertex is sufficient to track some oscillations, there also...

  8. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  9. Bayesian parameter estimation in dynamic population model via particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Gao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In nature, population dynamics are subject to multiple sources of stochasticity. State-space models (SSMs provide an ideal framework for incorporating both environmental noises and measurement errors into dynamic population models. In this paper, we present a recently developed method, Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC, for parameter estimation in nonlinear SSMs. We use one effective algorithm of Particle MCMC, Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm, to estimate the parameters of a state-space model of population dynamics. The posterior distributions of parameters are derived given the conjugate prior distribution. Numerical simulations showed that the model parameters can be accurately estimated, no matter the deterministic model is stable, periodic or chaotic. Moreover, we fit the model to 16 representative time series from Global Population Dynamics Database (GPDD. It is verified that the results of parameter and state estimation using Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm are satisfactory for a majority of time series. For other time series, the quality of parameter estimation can also be improved, if prior knowledge is constrained. In conclusion, Particle Gibbs sampling algorithm provides a new Bayesian parameter inference method for studying population dynamics.

  10. Effects of predation and dispersal on Mastomys natalensis population dynamics in Tanzanian maize fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vibe-Petersen, Solveig; Leirs, Herwig; de Bruyn, L

    2006-01-01

    ), excluding predators by nets and attracting avian predators by nest boxes and perch poles. Because dispersal of the rodents could mask the predation pressure treatment effects, control and predator exclusion treatments were repeated with enclosed rodent populations. 3.  Population growth during the annual......1.  We investigate the effects of different levels of predation pressure and rodent dispersal on the population dynamics of the African pest rodent Mastomys natalensis in maize fields in Tanzania. 2.  Three levels of predation risk were used in an experimental set-up: natural level (control...... risk. Reducing dispersal of rodents removed the effect of predation on population growth and peak size, suggesting that local predators may play a role in driving rodent dispersal, but have otherwise little direct effect on population dynamics....

  11. [Simulation on spatiotemporal dynamics of main prey populations of Panthera tigris in East Wanda Mountains].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qing-Xi; Gao, Mei-Xiang; Wang, Hua-Ru

    2008-07-01

    By using landscape-level animal population simulator (LAPS), the spatiotemporal dynamics of the main prey populations of Panthera tigris from 1990 to 2009 in East Wanda Mountains were simulated, based on the different scenarios of accidental mortality and carrying capacity that could represent the influence of direct and indirect human disturbance. The effects of the accidental mortality and carrying capacity on the population dynamics were studied, and the spatiotemporal distribution of animal blocks was exhibited explicitly in the study area, with the individual density in different patches compared. The results showed that compared with carrying capacity, accidental mortality had more effects on prey populations, and the population density was significantly higher in shrubs than in broad-leaved forests. The conclusions made in this study could provide scientific basis for the conservation and management of P. tigris' s preys in East Wanda Mountains, while the quantitative validation of the conclusions still needs further investigation.

  12. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  13. Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

  14. Gis Day 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esri Italia Esri Italia

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Si è svolto nelle Marche, ad Urbino, città simbolo del legame tra scienza e Rinascimento, il GIS DAY 2005; l’evento ha avuto il patrocinio di DAMAC – INTERREG SECUR SEA ed il supporto di: Regione Marche - Giunta Regionale, Contea di Zara (Croazia, Centro di Geobiologia - Università di Urbino, Forum delle Città dell’Adriatico e dello Ionio e Adriatic Action Plan 2020 ed ha sviluppato il tema dedicato ad “Un GIS interoperabile e internazionale”.

  15. Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

  16. Mesola red deer: physical characteristics, population dynamics and conservation perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Mattioli

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The biometry, demography and genetics of red deer Cervus elaphus of Mesola Wood (NE Italy, are presented and discussed in relation to the conservation of this population. Modest body size, low stature, oversimplified antlers and a low reproductive performance characterise red deer from Mesola Wood. The mitochondrial genome showed a private haplotype, different from other red deer in Italy and central Europe. The uniqueness of this nucleus and its biogeographic importance make a long-term conservation plan particularly urgent. Management measures such as fallow deer reduction, winter feeding and pasture mowing were tested, giving promising results. The physical condition of the animals improved, calf and adult mortality declined, and a few cases of antlers with bez tine or crown were reported in this study after four decades. Riassunto Il Cervo della Mesola: caratteristiche fisiche, dinamica di popolazione e prospettive di conservazione La biometria, la demografia e la genetica del cervo Cervus elaphus del Gran Bosco della Mesola (Italia nord-orientale, vengono presentate e discusse in relazione alla salvaguardia di questa popolazione. Il cervo della Mesola risulta caratterizzato dalle modeste dimensioni corporee, dalla struttura semplificata dei palchi e da un basso rendimento riproduttivo. L'analisi del genoma mitocondriale ha evidenziato un aplotipo privato, diverso da quello degli altri cervi italiani e centroeuropei. L'unicità di questo nucleo e la sua importanza biogeografica rendono particolarmente urgente un piano di conservazione a lungo termine. Sono stati verificati interventi gestionali quali la riduzione numerica dei daini, il foraggiamento invernale e lo sfalcio delle superfici a pascolo, con risultati promettenti. Le condizioni fisiche degli animali sono migliorate, la mortalità tra i piccoli e gli adulti è diminuita, e sono stati registrati alcuni

  17. Implementation of the analytical hierarchy process with VBA in ArcGIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinoni, Oswald

    2004-07-01

    Decisions on landuse have become progressively more difficult in the last decades. The main reasons for this development lie in the increasing population combined with an increasing demand for new land and resources and in the growing consciousness for sustainable land and resource use. The steady reduction of valuable land leads to an increase of conflicts in land use decision-making processes since more interests are being affected and therefore more stakeholders with different land use interests and different valuation criteria are being involved in the decision-making process. In the course of such a decision process all identified criteria are weighted according to their relative importance. But assigning weights to the relevant criteria quickly becomes a difficult task when a greater number of criteria are being considered, especially with regard to land use decisions where decision makers expect some kind of mapped result it is therefore useful to use procedures that not only help to derive criteria weights but also accelerate the visualisation and mapping of land use assessment results. Both aspects can easily be facilitated in a GIS. This paper focuses the development of an ArcGIS VBA macro which enables the user to derive criteria weights with the analytical hierarchy process and which allows a mapping of the land use assessment results by a weighted summation of GIS raster data sets. A dynamic link library for the calculation of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a square matrix is provided.

  18. [Nonlinear population dynamics: complication in the age structure influences transition-to-chaos scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhdanova, O L; Frisman, E Ia

    2011-01-01

    The work continues a series of studies on the evolution of a natural population of explicitly seasonal organisms. Model analyses have revealed relationships between the duration of ontogenesis and the pattern of temporal dynamics in size of an isolated population (i.e., the structure and dimensionality of the chaotic attractors). For nonlinear models of age-structured population dynamics (under long-lasting ontogenesis), increase in the reproductive potential is shown to result in the chaotic attractors whose structure and dimensionality changes in response to variations in the model parameters. When the ontogenesis becomes longer and more complicated, it does not, "on the average", augment the level of chaos in the attractors observed. There are wide enough regions in the space of the birth and death parameter values that provide for windows in the chaotic dynamics where the total or partial regularization occurs.

  19. PigGIS: Pig Genomic Informatics System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruan, Jue; Guo, Yiran; Li, Heng

    2007-01-01

    Pig Genomic Information System (PigGIS) is a web-based depository of pig (Sus scrofa) genomic learning mainly engineered for biomedical research to locate pig genes from their human homologs and position single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in different pig populations. It utilizes a variety...... of sequence data, including whole genome shotgun (WGS) reads and expressed sequence tags (ESTs), and achieves a successful mapping solution to the low-coverage genome problem. With the data presently available, we have identified a total of 15 700 pig consensus sequences covering 18.5 Mb of the homologous...... human exons. We have also recovered 18 700 SNPs and 20 800 unique 60mer oligonucleotide probes for future pig genome analyses. PigGIS can be freely accessed via the web at http://www.piggis.org/ and http://pig.genomics.org.cn/ ....

  20. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunger, John A.; /Northern Illinois U. /Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus Pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers wer 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in dits. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for P. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on P. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. Pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  1. Predation, Competition, and Abiotic Disturbance: Population Dynamics of Small Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yunger, John A. [Northern Illinois U.

    1996-01-01

    Predation and food availability have been implicated in annual non-cyclic fluctuations of vertebrate prey at mid-latitudes. The timing and magnitude of these factors are unclear due to a lack of large-scale field experiments, little attention to interactions, and a failure to closely link vertebrate predators with their prey. From October 1992 to January 1996, small mammal populations were censused on eight 0.6 ha plots at monthly intervals in a 32-ha prairie restoration at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Illinois. Terrestrial vertebrate predators were excluded after July 1993 from four of the eight plots and canid diets monitored. Both terrestrial and avian vertebrate predators were excluded in March 1994. During 1993 small mammal densities (i.e., Microtus pennsylvanicus, Peromyscus leucopus, and P. maniculatus) were relatively high. Following peak densities in late summer, Microtus numbers were 2-3x greater on exclusion plots relative to controls due to preferential selection of Microtus by canids, as reflected in diets. Following an ice-storm and crash in small mammal numbers (particularly Microtus), vertebrate predator exclusion had no detectable effect on P. leucopus numbers, probably due to an abundance of alternative prey (i.e., Sylvilagus floridanus). Meadow vole numbers began to increase in Fall 1995, and a numerical effect of predator exclusion, similar to that in 1993, was observed. Predator exclusion had no detectable effect on the movements and spatial patterns of Microtus during 1993. There was a significant decrease in home range and a significant increase in home range overlap for £.. leucopus on the predator exclusion plots. The change in spatial behavior may be due to interspecific competition with Microtus resulting from increased densities on exclusion plots. Thus, predators had an indirect effect on .f.. leucopus spatial patterns mediated through M. pennsylvanicus. The role of food limitation was studied using natural and manipulative

  2. Toolbar icons for GIS applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Szczepanek

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Graphical user interface is an important element of today software. Discussion on design aspects of toolbar icons is presented. Three concepts related to GIS applications are proposed.  Preliminary icon set gis-0.1 oriented to usability and simplicity is outlined.

  3. Students Individual Engagement in GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Lene Møller; Christiansen, Frederik; Rump, Camilla

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops two sets of concepts to theorize why students engage differently in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). These theoretical concepts are used as an analytical lens to explore empirical data on the experiences and engagement of students enrolled in an undergraduate GIS course in planning and management. The analysis shows that…

  4. Tilgængelighed & GIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemens, Esben Norby; Rolff-Petersen, Hans

    2002-01-01

    Artiklen beskriver en metode til implementering af en gravitationsbaseret tilgængelighedsmodel ved anvendelse af bl.a. netværksberegninger i et standard GIS-software. Udgivelsesdato: August......Artiklen beskriver en metode til implementering af en gravitationsbaseret tilgængelighedsmodel ved anvendelse af bl.a. netværksberegninger i et standard GIS-software. Udgivelsesdato: August...

  5. Ultrafast vibrational population transfer dynamics in 2-acetylcyclopentanone studied by 2D IR spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sungnam; Ji, Minbiao

    2011-03-14

    2-Acetylcyclopentanone (2-ACP), which is a β-dicarbonyl compound, undergoes keto-enol isomerization, and its enol tautomers are stabilized by a cyclic intramolecular hydrogen bond. 2-ACP (keto form) has symmetric and asymmetric vibrational modes of the two carbonyl groups at 1748 and 1715 cm(-1) , respectively, which are well separated from the carbonyl modes of its enol tautomers in the FTIR spectrum. We have investigated 2-ACP dissolved in carbon tetrachloride by 2D IR spectroscopy and IR pump-probe spectroscopy. Vibrational population transfer dynamics between the two carbonyl modes were observed by 2D IR spectroscopy. To extract the population exchange dynamics (i.e., the down- and uphill population transfer rate constants), we used the normalized volumes of the cross-peaks with respect to the diagonal peaks at the same emission frequency and the survival and conditional probability functions. As expected, the downhill population transfer time constant (3.2 ps) was measured to be smaller than the uphill population transfer time constant (3.8 ps). In addition, the vibrational population relaxation dynamics of the two carbonyl modes were observed to be the same within the experimental error and were found to be much slower than vibrational population transfer between two carbonyl modes. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  7. Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2018-02-01

    This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

  8. Simulation modelling of the effects of oil spills on population dynamics of northern fur seals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, M.; French, D.P.; Calambokidis, J.; Cubbage, J.C. (Applied Science Associates, Inc., Narragansett, RI (USA) Cascadia Research Collective, Olympia, WA (USA))

    1989-12-01

    Models of population dynamics and migration were developed and combined with an oil spill simulation model to determine the effects of potential oil spills on the Pribilof Island fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population. In the population dynamics model, mortality of pups on land and juveniles up to 2 years of age is density-dependent, while that of older seals is age- and sex-specific and constant at all population sizes. Movement patterns of seals within the Bering Sea are functions of date, sexual status and age, conforming to probability distributions based on field observations of their movements and timing. Two simulations of hypothetical 10,000-barrel oil spills were performed. One occurs near Unimak Pass during the peak migration of pregnant females to the Pribilof rookeries, oiling 3% of the total female population. The other occurs near St. Paul Island during the pupping season, and oils 2-4% of the female population. By comparison, about 16% of females die from natural causes each year. Depending on the assumed oil-induced mortality rate in the range 25-100%, 'effective' recovery of the population from these spills (i.e. the number of years before the oil-affected population numbers were within 1% of the non-affected population numbers) took 0-25 years. 10 figs., 24 refs., 2 tabs.

  9. Using dynamic population simulations to extend resource selection analyses and prioritize habitats for conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs, Julie; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Schumaker, Nathan

    2017-01-01

    Prioritizing habitats for conservation is a challenging task, particularly for species with fluctuating populations and seasonally dynamic habitat needs. Although the use of resource selection models to identify and prioritize habitat for conservation is increasingly common, their ability to characterize important long-term habitats for dynamic populations are variable. To examine how habitats might be prioritized differently if resource selection was directly and dynamically linked with population fluctuations and movement limitations among seasonal habitats, we constructed a spatially explicit individual-based model for a dramatically fluctuating population requiring temporally varying resources. Using greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming as a case study, we used resource selection function maps to guide seasonal movement and habitat selection, but emergent population dynamics and simulated movement limitations modified long-term habitat occupancy. We compared priority habitats in RSF maps to long-term simulated habitat use. We examined the circumstances under which the explicit consideration of movement limitations, in combination with population fluctuations and trends, are likely to alter predictions of important habitats. In doing so, we assessed the future occupancy of protected areas under alternative population and habitat conditions. Habitat prioritizations based on resource selection models alone predicted high use in isolated parcels of habitat and in areas with low connectivity among seasonal habitats. In contrast, results based on more biologically-informed simulations emphasized central and connected areas near high-density populations, sometimes predicted to be low selection value. Dynamic models of habitat use can provide additional biological realism that can extend, and in some cases, contradict habitat use predictions generated from short-term or static resource selection analyses. The explicit inclusion of population

  10. Strong dispersal in a parasitoid wasp overwhelms habitat fragmentation and host population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couchoux, C; Seppä, P; van Nouhuys, S

    2016-07-01

    The population dynamics of a parasite depend on species traits, host dynamics and the environment. Those dynamics are reflected in the genetic structure of the population. Habitat fragmentation has a greater impact on parasites than on their hosts because resource distribution is increasingly fragmented for species at higher trophic levels. This could lead to either more or less genetic structure than the host, depending on the relative dispersal rates of species. We examined the spatial genetic structure of the parasitoid wasp Hyposoter horticola, and how it was influenced by dispersal, host population dynamics and habitat fragmentation. The host, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, lives as a metapopulation in a fragmented landscape in the Åland Islands, Finland. We collected wasps throughout the 50 by 70 km archipelago and determined the genetic diversity, spatial population structure and genetic differentiation using 14 neutral DNA microsatellite loci. We compared the genetic structure of the wasp with that of the host butterfly using published genetic data collected over the shared landscape. Using maternity assignment, we also identified full-siblings among the sampled parasitoids to estimate the dispersal range of individual females. We found that because the parasitoid is dispersive, it has low genetic structure, is not very sensitive to habitat fragmentation and has less spatial genetic structure than its butterfly host. The wasp is sensitive to regional rather than local host dynamics, and there is a geographic mosaic landscape for antagonistic co-evolution of host resistance and parasite virulence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Generalization of the Rabi population inversion dynamics in the sub-one-cycle pulse limit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doslic, N.

    2006-01-01

    We consider the population inversion in a two-level system generated by a sub-one-cycle pulse excitation. Specifically, we explore the effect that the time derivative of the pulse envelope has on the Rabi dynamics. Our analysis is based on a combination of analytical, perturbative, and nonperturbative treatments and is complemented by numerical simulations. We find a shortening of the Rabi inversion period and show that complete inversion is unobtainable under resonant, ultrashort pulse conditions. The impact of nonresonant and carrier-envelope phase-dependent effects on the dynamics of two-level and multilevel systems is studied numerically, and conditions for complete population inversion are derived

  12. Adaptions of ArcGIS' Linear Referencing System to the Coastal Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balstrøm, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    For many years it has been problematic to store information for the coastal environment in a GIS. However, a system named "Linear referencing System" based upon a dynamic segmentation principle implemented in ESRIs ArcGIS 9 software has now made it possible to store and analyze information...

  13. 'Wildlife 2001: Populations', an International Conference on Population Dynamics and Management of Vertebrates

    CERN Document Server

    Barrett, Reginald

    1992-01-01

    In 1984, a conference called Wildlife 2000: Modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, was held at Stanford Sierra Camp at Fallen Leaf Lake in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. The conference was well-received, and the published volume (Verner, J. , M. L. Morrison, and C. J. Ralph, editors. 1986. Wildlife 2000: modeling habitat relationships of terrestrial vertebrates, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, Wisconsin, USA) proved to be a landmark publication that received a book award by The Wildlife Society. Wildlife 2001: populations was a followup conference with emphasis on the other major biological field of wildlife conservation and management, populations. It was held on July 29-31, 1991, at the Oakland Airport Hilton Hotel in Oakland, California, in accordance with our intent that this conference have a much stronger international representation than did Wildlife 2000. The goal of the conference was to bring together an international group of specialists to address the state ...

  14. Arsenic levels in the soil and risk of birth defects: a population-based case-control study using GIS technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jilei; Chen, Gong; Liao, Yilan; Song, Xinming; Pei, Lijun; Wang, Jinfeng; Zheng, Xiaoying

    2011-11-01

    Arsenic is a highly dangerous metal that has been linked to a number of adverse health effects in both adults and children, including birth defects. Yet few epidemiologic studies have examined the relationship between arsenic levels in the soil and the risk of birth defects. The purpose of the authors' study was to examine this association among people exposed to environmental pollution in a developed area of China. The authors used global positioning system to locate the coordinates of 80 villages in 40 towns for soil sampling. Soil samples were analyzed for arsenic content. Logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between exposure to arsenic and birth defects, controlling for potentially confounding factors. The authors found that exposure to arsenic in any amount increased the risk of birth defects. The positive association found between arsenic exposure and birth defects warrants further study, and future large-scale population-based studies are needed with an emphasis on individual-level exposure and confounding variables.

  15. Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthukumar V Bagavathiannan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba, one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production

  16. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  17. Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Fouchet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

  18. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  19. Coupled dynamics of energy budget and population growth of tilapia in response to pulsed waterborne copper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Chia-Jung; Ju, Yun-Ru; Tsai, Jeng-Wei; Liao, Chung-Min

    2012-11-01

    The impact of environmentally pulsed metal exposure on population dynamics of aquatic organisms remains poorly understood and highly unpredictable. The purpose of our study was to link a dynamic energy budget model to a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic (TK/TD). We used the model to investigate tilapia population dynamics in response to pulsed waterborne copper (Cu) assessed with available empirical data. We mechanistically linked the acute and chronic bioassays of pulsed waterborne Cu at the scale of individuals to tilapia populations to capture the interaction between environment and population growth and reproduction. A three-stage matrix population model of larva-juvenile-adult was used to project offspring production through two generations. The estimated median population growth rate (λ) decreased from 1.0419 to 0.9991 under pulsed Cu activities ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 μg L(-1). Our results revealed that the influence on λ was predominately due to changes in the adult survival and larval survival and growth functions. We found that pulsed timing has potential impacts on physiological responses and population abundance. Our study indicated that increasing time intervals between first and second pulses decreased mortality and growth inhibition of tilapia populations, indicating that during long pulsed intervals tilapia may have enough time to recover. Our study concluded that the bioenergetics-based matrix population methodology could be employed in a life-cycle toxicity assessment framework to explore the effect of stage-specific mode-of-actions in population response to pulsed contaminants.

  20. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology , Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  1. The role of weather and density dependence on population dynamics of Alpine-dwelling red deer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonardi, Anna; Corlatti, Luca; Bragalanti, Natalia; Pedrotti, Luca

    2017-01-01

    The dynamics of red deer Cervus elaphus populations has been investigated across different environmental conditions, with the notable exception of the European Alps. Although the population dynamics of mountain-dwelling ungulates is typically influenced by the interaction between winter severity and density, the increase of temperatures and the reduction of snowpack occurring on the Alps since the 1980s may be expected to alter this pattern, especially in populations dwelling at medium - low elevations. Taking advantage of a 29-year time series of spring count data, we explored the role of weather stochasticity and density dependence on growth rate and vital rates (mortality and weaning success), and the density-dependent variation in body mass in a red deer population of the Italian Alps. The interaction between increasing values of density and snow depth exerted negative and positive effects on growth and mortality rates, respectively, while weaning success was negatively affected by increasing values of density, female-biased sex ratio and snow depth. Body mass of males and females of different age classes declined as population size increased. Our data support the role of winter severity and density dependence as key components of red deer population dynamics, and provide insight into the species' ecology on the European Alps. Despite the recent decline of snowpack on the Alpine Region, the negative impacts of winter severity and population abundance on growth rrate (possibly mediated by the density-dependent decline in body mass) confirms the importance of overwinter mortality in affecting the population dynamics of Alpine-dwelling red deer. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  2. Single-virion sequencing of lamivudine-treated HBV populations reveal population evolution dynamics and demographic history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuan O; Aw, Pauline P K; de Sessions, Paola Florez; Hong, Shuzhen; See, Lee Xian; Hong, Lewis Z; Wilm, Andreas; Li, Chen Hao; Hue, Stephane; Lim, Seng Gee; Nagarajan, Niranjan; Burkholder, William F; Hibberd, Martin

    2017-10-27

    Viral populations are complex, dynamic, and fast evolving. The evolution of groups of closely related viruses in a competitive environment is termed quasispecies. To fully understand the role that quasispecies play in viral evolution, characterizing the trajectories of viral genotypes in an evolving population is the key. In particular, long-range haplotype information for thousands of individual viruses is critical; yet generating this information is non-trivial. Popular deep sequencing methods generate relatively short reads that do not preserve linkage information, while third generation sequencing methods have higher error rates that make detection of low frequency mutations a bioinformatics challenge. Here we applied BAsE-Seq, an Illumina-based single-virion sequencing technology, to eight samples from four chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients - once before antiviral treatment and once after viral rebound due to resistance. With single-virion sequencing, we obtained 248-8796 single-virion sequences per sample, which allowed us to find evidence for both hard and soft selective sweeps. We were able to reconstruct population demographic history that was independently verified by clinically collected data. We further verified four of the samples independently through PacBio SMRT and Illumina Pooled deep sequencing. Overall, we showed that single-virion sequencing yields insight into viral evolution and population dynamics in an efficient and high throughput manner. We believe that single-virion sequencing is widely applicable to the study of viral evolution in the context of drug resistance and host adaptation, allows differentiation between soft or hard selective sweeps, and may be useful in the reconstruction of intra-host viral population demographic history.

  3. GIS4schools: a new approach in GIS education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demharter, Timo; Michel, Ulrich

    2012-10-01

    From a didactic point of view the procurement and the application of modern geographical methods and functions become more and more important. Although the integration of GIS in the classroom is repeatedly demanded, inter alia in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, the number of GIS users is small in comparison to other European countries or the USA. Possible reasons for this could, for instance, lie in the lack of GIS and computer knowledge of the teachers themselves and the subsequent extensive training effort in Desktop-GIS (KERSKI 2000, SCHLEICHER 2004). Today you have the technological possibilities to provide the broad public with geoinformation and geotechnology: Web technologies offer access to web-based, mobile and local applications through simple gateways. The objective of the project "GIS4schools" is to generate a service-based infrastructure, which can be operated via mobile clients as well as via Desktop-GIS or a Browser. Due to the easy availability of the services the focus is in particular on students. This circumstance is a novelty through which a differentiated approach to the implementation of GIS in schools is established. Accordingly, the pilot nature of this project becomes apparent as well as its greater importance beyond its actual content especially for the sector of media development at colleges of education. The continuity from Web-GIS to Desktop-GIS is innovative: The goal is to create an adapted multi-level solution which allows both, an easy introduction if desired or a detailed analysis - either to be achieved with a focus especially on students and their cooperation among one another.

  4. POPULATION PARAMETERS STUDY ON Xylopia brasiliensis Sprengel POPULATION DYNAMIC IN A GALLERY FOREST AT ITUTINGA – MG –BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Senna Corrêa

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available It was studied the population dynamics of Xylopia brasiliensis between 1997 and 1999 in a gallery forest (Mata de Camargos with an area of 7,5 ha in Itutinga, Minas Gerais state, Brazil. The population rates were related to the density and basal area of the species and the tree community.It was found significant differences between Blocks and Sectors envolving recruitment, change in basal area, increase and decrease. It was also studied the influence of density and basal area of Xylopia brasiliensis on its own dynamics through regressing population rates on the density and basal area of individuals. It was found negative correlations in change in basal area, in increase in basal area and in recruitment and positive correlations in recruitment and in mortality. The localized effects of the observed correlations suggested existence of assymetric and intraspecific competition governed by the Xylopia brasiliensis adults and sub-adults, and with community adults individuals, both reducing the individual growth, recruitment and survival of the studied forest fragment.

  5. [Migration as the main factor of the Russia’s urban population dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatova, O L; Yankovsky, N K

    2016-07-01

    This review summarizes the results of the long-term studies performed at the Institute of General Genetics, Russian Academy of Sciences, in the field of genetic demography of migration processes in Russia and its capital. The main population-genetic parameters of migration and their dynamics in Moscow over a hundred years are given. Sociodemographic and population-genetic implications of migration processes are considered. A model predicting the population gene pool dynamics under migration pressure for genes of different localization (autosomal, sex-linked, and mitochondrial), exemplified by predicting the allele frequency dynamics in the Moscow population of some gene markers, including genes accounting for monogenic pathology and genes associated with resistance to socially significant diseases, are presented. The paper discusses the selective character of migration processes, in particular, processes of emigration, with respect to some genetically significant ethnodemographic traits; the problem of adaptation of migrants; and adaptive strategies of consolidation of ethnoconfessional groups in the megalopolis (compact settlement over the urban territory and positive assortative mating with respect to demographic traits). It was shown that, owing to the intense influx of migrants and gene flows between ethnic groups, the population of the megalopolis is of mixed origin in terms of ethnic, anthropologic, and genetic aspects. The results of the study suggest the necessity to develop a specific strategy of genetic database formation for the population of megalopolises for the purposes of medical genetics and forensic medicine.

  6. Interaction between stocking density and settlement on population dynamics in suspended mussel culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubillo, Alhambra M.; Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío

    2015-01-01

    Population dynamics on mussels growing on suspended culture depend mainly on the balance of several processes: mortality and/or dislodgements from the ropes, recruitment and growth. The negative effect of overcrowding on mussel growth and survival has been widely studied. Other works have addressed the effect of population size on recruitment on bottom beds. This study aims to provide insight into the processes underlying population dynamics. To this purpose, we analyzed the effect of stocking density on mussel growth, survival and seed settlement, and the post-settlement interaction between adults and recruits in suspended culture. The temporal pattern of the variables involved in population dynamics was fitted by GAM models, which in contrast with parametric models does not assume any prior relationships between variables. Our results show that mussel growth and survival depend on a trade-off between competition for resources at high densities and the risk of great settlements in less crowded adult mussel populations. Intracohort competition increased with stocking density, while seed settlement, which increases the risk of mussel dislodgements and leads to intercohort competition, was higher at moderate stocking densities. Post-settlement competitive pressures were driven by total population density and size composition. Both intracohort competition in adults and asymmetric competition between adults and recruits increase with higher adult-recruit ratios. All these density-dependent processes should be considered in future management strategies and research experimental designs.

  7. Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knape, Jonas; de Valpine, Perry

    2011-04-07

    Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.

  8. Paraquat Herbicide in Peat Soil: I. Its Effects on The Dynamics of Microbial Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Margino

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available Paraquat has been used widely and periodically in peat soil. It is stable in acid environments, therefore its application in peat soil which represents an acid environment, might prolong its persistence. Liming treatment has known to reduce peat soil acidity. This research was conducted to study the effect of paraquat and liming treatments on the dynamics of microbial population in peat soil. Unlimed and limed peat soil were treated with paraquat to a final concentration of 20 ppm, and incubated for 2 months. Microbiological analysis, consisting of counting of bacterial, actinomycetes, and fungal population were done weekly. The changes of pH value and paraquat residue were also measured. The results showed that in unlimed peat soil, paraquat treatment did not influence microbial population. However, when paraquat was added into limed peat soil, the number of microbial population decreased; especially the population of bacteria. Liming treatment increased bacterial population and changed the population dynamics of actinomycetes. No significant difference of fungal population in peat soil treated with paraquat and lime. Additionally, there was no significant difference in paraquat resistance between limed and unlimed peat soil.

  9. The dynamics of Listera ovata populations on mineral islands in the Biebrza National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia Brzosko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Observations of two isolated populations of Listera ovata (Oparzelisko and Zabudnik were conducted for 7 years in the Biebrza National Park. The studied populations differed in size, proportion of flowering individuals and effectiveness of reproduction. High number of juvenile individuals in OPA population was noted under conditions more favourable for germination (gaps in vegetation and higher moisture of soil. On the other hand, vegetative reproduction is important in the dynamics of ZAB population. The natural fruiting rate of L. ovata is relatively high (up to 90% and does not seem to be pollinator limited. Some costs of reproduction especially in terms of leaf size were observed. The dormancy is important in the population dynamics. In some years even one third of the population may be dormant. L. ovata produces enough seeds and offspring to maintain or even increase population sizes. These facts, connected with the longevity of individuals,indicate that populations of L. ovata in the Biebrza National Park are not threatened with extinction in the nearest future.

  10. ANALYSIS OF THE WOODY VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN THE AREA OF TREE LINE ECOTONE ON THE BASIS OF PHOTO MONITORING DATA AND USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Mikhailovich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A method of processing and presentation of the repeated landscape photographs for analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of woody vegetation in tree line ecotone the Polar Urals (mountain Rai-Iz was developed. It is intended to solve problems with the use of such photographs so as to help the researcher to gain an integral representation of the space under study, obtain additional information about the region of interest, create and update annotation to photographs, and develop thematic maps using repeated landscape photography.

  11. GRASS GIS: The first Open Source Temporal GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebbert, Sören; Leppelt, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    GRASS GIS is a full featured, general purpose Open Source geographic information system (GIS) with raster, 3D raster and vector processing support[1]. Recently, time was introduced as a new dimension that transformed GRASS GIS into the first Open Source temporal GIS with comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis, processing and visualization capabilities[2]. New spatio-temporal data types were introduced in GRASS GIS version 7, to manage raster, 3D raster and vector time series. These new data types are called space time datasets. They are designed to efficiently handle hundreds of thousands of time stamped raster, 3D raster and vector map layers of any size. Time stamps can be defined as time intervals or time instances in Gregorian calendar time or relative time. Space time datasets are simplifying the processing and analysis of large time series in GRASS GIS, since these new data types are used as input and output parameter in temporal modules. The handling of space time datasets is therefore equal to the handling of raster, 3D raster and vector map layers in GRASS GIS. A new dedicated Python library, the GRASS GIS Temporal Framework, was designed to implement the spatio-temporal data types and their management. The framework provides the functionality to efficiently handle hundreds of thousands of time stamped map layers and their spatio-temporal topological relations. The framework supports reasoning based on the temporal granularity of space time datasets as well as their temporal topology. It was designed in conjunction with the PyGRASS [3] library to support parallel processing of large datasets, that has a long tradition in GRASS GIS [4,5]. We will present a subset of more than 40 temporal modules that were implemented based on the GRASS GIS Temporal Framework, PyGRASS and the GRASS GIS Python scripting library. These modules provide a comprehensive temporal GIS tool set. The functionality range from space time dataset and time stamped map layer management

  12. Public Participation GIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Sten

    2004-01-01

    The protection and enhancement of the environment is the main aim of most environmental planning, and the use of geographic information as well as public participation can improve the quality of both the processes and the decisions. The current paper describes the role of web-based geographic...... information in environmental planning and gives an overview over the various approaches to public participation. The current advances in Web-based GIS in many countries contain great possibilities for supporting good governance based on information and knowledge on the one hand and active involvement...... planning. The methods and techniques are illustrated by Danish examples from practical environmental planning. At the end I present some ideas for following up activities....

  13. Application of GIS technology in public health: successes and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher-Lartey, Stephanie M; Caprarelli, Graziella

    2016-04-01

    The uptake and acceptance of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology has increased since the early 1990s and public health applications are rapidly expanding. In this paper, we summarize the common uses of GIS technology in the public health sector, emphasizing applications related to mapping and understanding of parasitic diseases. We also present some of the success stories, and discuss the challenges that still prevent a full scope application of GIS technology in the public health context. Geographical analysis has allowed researchers to interlink health, population and environmental data, thus enabling them to evaluate and quantify relationships between health-related variables and environmental risk factors at different geographical scales. The ability to access, share and utilize satellite and remote-sensing data has made possible even wider understanding of disease processes and of their links to the environment, an important consideration in the study of parasitic diseases. For example, disease prevention and control strategies resulting from investigations conducted in a GIS environment have been applied in many areas, particularly in Africa. However, there remain several challenges to a more widespread use of GIS technology, such as: limited access to GIS infrastructure, inadequate technical and analytical skills, and uneven data availability. Opportunities exist for international collaboration to address these limitations through knowledge sharing and governance.

  14. The within-host population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis vary with treatment efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trauner, Andrej; Liu, Qingyun; Via, Laura E; Liu, Xin; Ruan, Xianglin; Liang, Lili; Shi, Huimin; Chen, Ying; Wang, Ziling; Liang, Ruixia; Zhang, Wei; Wei, Wang; Gao, Jingcai; Sun, Gang; Brites, Daniela; England, Kathleen; Zhang, Guolong; Gagneux, Sebastien; Barry, Clifton E; Gao, Qian

    2017-04-19

    Combination therapy is one of the most effective tools for limiting the emergence of drug resistance in pathogens. Despite the widespread adoption of combination therapy across diseases, drug resistance rates continue to rise, leading to failing treatment regimens. The mechanisms underlying treatment failure are well studied, but the processes governing successful combination therapy are poorly understood. We address this question by studying the population dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within tuberculosis patients undergoing treatment with different combinations of antibiotics. By combining very deep whole genome sequencing (~1000-fold genome-wide coverage) with sequential sputum sampling, we were able to detect transient genetic diversity driven by the apparently continuous turnover of minor alleles, which could serve as the source of drug-resistant bacteria. However, we report that treatment efficacy has a clear impact on the population dynamics: sufficient drug pressure bears a clear signature of purifying selection leading to apparent genetic stability. In contrast, M. tuberculosis populations subject to less drug pressure show markedly different dynamics, including cases of acquisition of additional drug resistance. Our findings show that for a pathogen like M. tuberculosis, which is well adapted to the human host, purifying selection constrains the evolutionary trajectory to resistance in effectively treated individuals. Nonetheless, we also report a continuous turnover of minor variants, which could give rise to the emergence of drug resistance in cases of drug pressure weakening. Monitoring bacterial population dynamics could therefore provide an informative metric for assessing the efficacy of novel drug combinations.

  15. A nonlinear problem for age-structured population dynamics with spatial diffusion

    OpenAIRE

    Nakoulima, Ousseynou; Omrane, Abdennebi; Velin, Jean

    2001-01-01

    We consider a nonlinear model for age-dependent population dynamics subject to a density dependent factor which regulates the selection of newborn at age zero. The initial-boundary value problem is studied using a vanishing viscosity method (in the age direction) together with the fixed point theory. Existence and uniqueness are obtained, and also the positivity of the solution to the problem.

  16. Local existence for a general model of size-dependent population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kato

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available We shall investigate a size structured population dynamics with aging and birth functions having general forms. The growth rate we deal with depends not only on the size but also on time. We show the existence of a local solution and continuous dependence on the initial data, which shows the uniqueness of the solution as well.

  17. Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level: the role of dynamic energy budgets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Klok, T.C.

    2010-01-01

    The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data,

  18. Extrapolating toxic effects on individuals to the population level; the role of dynamic energy budgets.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, T.; Klok, C.

    2010-01-01

    The interest of environmental management is in the long-term health of populations and ecosystems. However, toxicity is usually assessed in short-term experiments with individuals. Modelling based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory aids the extraction of mechanistic information from the data,

  19. Pyramiding different aphid-resistance genes in elite soybean germplasm to combat dynamic aphid populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The soybean aphid, an invasive species, has posed a significant threat to soybean production in North America since 2001. Use of resistant cultivars is an effective tactic to protect soybean yield. However, the variability and dynamics of aphid populations could limit the effectiveness of host-resis...

  20. Influence of rainfall on the dynamics of two prawn populations in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The influence of rainfall on the population dynamics of the prawns, Macrobrachium macrobrachion Herklots 1851 and Nematopalaemon hastatus Aurivillius 1898, in the Cross River Estuary, Nigeria, was investigated. Rainfall accounted for a significant portion of the variations in catch rate, spawning and recruitment indices ...

  1. Population dynamics of subtidal blue mussels Mytilus edulis and the impact of cultivation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capelle, J.; Stralen, Van Marnix; Wijsman, J.W.M.; Herman, Peter M.J.; Smaal, A.C.

    2017-01-01

    Fishery on subtidal mussel beds and subsequent relying on culture plots in the same system is a common practice in bottom mussel culture. We address factors that determine the population dynamics of subtidal blue mussels Mytilus edulis L. and to what extent total (natural plus cultured) subtidal

  2. Economic Impacts of Changes in Fish Population Dynamics: The Role of Fishermen’s Harvesting Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Link, P.M.; Schneider, U.A.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2011-01-01

    Using a bioeconomic model of the cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen's behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic

  3. Genetic consequences of forest population dynamics influenced by historic climatic variability in the western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert D. Westfall; Constance I. Millar

    2004-01-01

    We review recent advances in climate science that show cyclic climatic variation over multiple time scales and give examples of the impacts of this variation on plant populations in the western USA. The paleohistorical reconstructions we review and others indicate that plant specles track these cycles in individualistically complex ways. These dynamic histories suggest...

  4. Do differences in inducible resistance explain the population dynamics of birch and pine defoliators?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seppo Neuvonen; Pekka Niemela

    1991-01-01

    Damage inflicted by insects may trigger responses in their host plants resulting either in immediate effects on herbivores either rapidly or in effects upon subsequent herbivore generations. Differentiation between rapid and delayed inducible resistance is essential since the two responses affect the population dynamics of herbivores in fundamentally different ways (...

  5. Horn fly population dynamics as prediction tool for the fixation of pesticide resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    This research project was conducted to establish the population dynamics of the horn fly. Two cattle herds were monitored to establish if contrasting climatic regional conditions, in addition to temperature and precipitation, related to the number of rainy days as a factor influencing horn fly infes...

  6. Precipitation and temperature effects on stable fly (diptera: muscidae) population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    The dynamics of stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), populations relative to temperature and precipitation were evaluated in a 13 y study in eastern Nebraska. During the course of the study, over 1.7 million stable flies were collected on an array of 25 sticky traps. A log-normal model using degree...

  7. Alternate attractors in the population dynamics of a tree-killing bark beetle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon J. Martinson; Tiina Ylioja; Brian T. Sullivan; Ronald F. Billings; Matthew P. Ayres

    2013-01-01

    Among the most striking changes in ecosystems are those that happen abruptly and resist return to the original condition (i.e., regime shifts). This frequently involves conspicuous changes in the abundance of one species (e.g., an outbreaking pest or keystone species). Alternate attractors in population dynamics could explain switches between low and high levels of...

  8. Spatial variation in population dynamics of Sitka mice in floodplain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.A. Hanley; J.C. Barnard

    1999-01-01

    Population dynamics and demography of the Sitka mouse, Peromyscus keeni sitkensis, were studied by mark-recapture live-trapping over a 4-year period in four floodplain and upland forest habitats: old-growth Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) floodplain; red alder (Alnus rubra) floodplain; beaver-pond...

  9. Spatial-temporal population dynamics across species range: from centre to margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qinfeng Guo; Mark Taper; Michele Schoenberger; J. Brandle

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the boundaries of species'rangs and the variations in population dynamics from the centre to margin of a species' range is critical. This study simulated spatial-tamporal patterns of birth and death rates and migration across a species' range in different seasons. Our results demonstrated the importance of dispersal and migration in...

  10. Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: an experimental test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Turchin; A.D. Taylor; J.D. Reeve

    1999-01-01

    Population cycles occur frequently in forest insects.Time-series analysis of fluctuations in one such insect, the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis), suggests that beetle dynamics are dominated by an ecological process acting in a delayed density-dependent manner.The hypothesis that delayed density-dependence in this insect results from its interaction with...

  11. What controls the population dynamics of the invasive thistle Carduus nutans in its native range?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongejans, E.; Sheppard, A.W.; Shea, K.

    2006-01-01

    1. The invasive thistle Carduus nutans causes major economic losses in the Americas, Australia and New Zealand. For the first time, we have modelled its population dynamics in its native range, Eurasia, where it rarely reaches problematic densities, in order to identify ways to improve management

  12. Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis - A population-based dynamic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, R; Kretzschmar, M; Leidl, R; Van den Hoek, A; Jager, JC; Postma, MJ

    2000-01-01

    Background: Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chamydial screening programs do not consider population effects. Goal: To develop a novel dynamic approach for the economic evaluation of chlamydial prevention measures and to determine the cost-effectiveness of a general

  13. Population dynamics of thrips prey and their mite predators in a refuge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magalhaes, S.; van Rijn, P.C.J.; Montserrat Larrosa, M.; Pallini, A.; Sabelis, M.W.

    2006-01-01

    Prey refuges are expected to affect population dynamics, but direct experimental tests of this hypothesis are scarce. Larvae of western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis use the web produced by spider mites as a refuge from predation by the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris. Thrips incur a

  14. Population dynamics of thrips prey and their mite predators in a refuge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magalhães, S.; Van Rijn, P.C.J.; Montserrat, M.; Pallini, A.; Sabelis, M.W.

    2007-01-01

    Prey refuges are expected to affect population dynamics, but direct experimental tests of this hypothesis are scarce. Larvae of western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis use the web produced by spider mites as a refuge from predation by the predatory mite Neoseiulus cucumeris. Thrips incur a

  15. Volume 10 No. 7 July 2010 2772 THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2010-07-07

    Jul 7, 2010 ... The result of this work, therefore, shows that a lot of factors which ranged from climatic factors to pod availability as well as the presence of natural enemies, especially ants, all come into play in determining the population dynamics of the brown cocoa mirid, S. singularis in Nigeria. This knowledge of this ...

  16. Dynamic Behaviour of a Population of Controlled-by-price Demand Side Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sossan, Fabrizio; Han, Xue; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2014-01-01

    It is described that controlling or shedding by price the power consumption of a population of thermostatic loads introduces in the aggregate consumption dynamic effects th at cannot be disregarded if electrical flexible demand is meant to supply power system services. It is shown that inducing...

  17. Frost and Forest Stand Effects on the Population Dynamics of Asplenium scolopendrium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremer, P.; Jongejans, E.

    2010-01-01

    Our objective was to analyze which factors are critical for the dynamics of terrestrial Asplenium scolopendrium populations at the northern edge of its distribution. Therefore, a long-term study (1978–1999) on the performance and demography of this fern species has been carried out in three

  18. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  19. Population dynamics, life-history traits of and habitat use by two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and life-history traits of two sympatric nothobranchiid killifishes, Epiplatys bifasciatus and E. spilargyreius, were studied for 24 months in an intermittent stream in the Kainji Lake Basin, Nigeria. Epiplatys bifasciatus was more abundant throughout the study period, but monthly abundance of both species ...

  20. Garter snake population dynamics from a 16-year study: considerations for ecological monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy J. Lind; Hartwell H. Welsh Jr; David A. Tallmon

    2005-01-01

    Snakes have recently been proposed as model organisms for addressing both evolutionary and ecological questions. Because of their middle position in many food webs they may be useful indicators of trophic complexity and dynamics. However, reliable data on snake populations are rare due to the challenges of sampling these patchily distributed, cryptic, and often...

  1. Seasonal population dynamics of Zeuxapta seriolae (Monogenea: Heteraxinidae) parasitising Seriola dumerili (Carangidae) in the Western Mediterranean

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Repulles-Albelda, A.; Kostadinova, Aneta; Raga, J. A.; Montero, F. E.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 193, 1-3 (2013), s. 163-171 ISSN 0304-4017 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : Zeuxapta seriolae * Seriola dumerili * Monogenea * Population dynamics * Western Mediterranean Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.545, year: 2013

  2. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The dynamics of structured plant populations in variable environments can be decomposed into the ‘asymptotic’ growth contributed by vital rates, and ‘transient’ growth caused by deviation from stable stage structure. We apply this framework to a large, global data base of longitudinal studies of ...

  3. Dynamics of weed populations : spatial pattern formation and implications for control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, J.

    1998-01-01

    Modelling studies were carried out to analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of annual weed populations and to identify the key factors that determine the long-term herbicide use of weed control programmes. Three different weed control programmes were studied.

    In the first weed

  4. STUDY NOISE POLLUTION TYUMEN USING GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Dobryakova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most harmful factors of environment of the city is the noise, and its weight among the factors adversely affecting the life and health of the population has been increasing steadily [Sheina and etc., 2007; Polovinkina and etc., 2012]. Today, most major cities of the Russian Federation (70% have a high noise pollution problem. The system of support for the monitoring and control of acoustic situation in the city can be considered noise pollution electronic cards made using geographic information systems (GIS. There are two fundamentally different approaches to the selection of software for creation of noise maps. According to the first of them, use universal multifunctional complexes GIS (ArcGIS, MapInfo. According to the distribution of data points on the noise characteristics is created TIN model. A second approach to create noise maps using highly specialized software (MapNoise, SoundPLAN, Mitha, Cadna, ExNOISE et al.. To calculate noise propagation area is divided on the grid with a certain step, the most relevant mapping purposes. Calculation of noise levels is carried out in a grid cell by measurements based on diffraction and reflection of sound barriers and absorbing underlying surface. Noise pollution is also displayed using contour lines.

  5. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

    2015-06-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

  6. Floater dynamics can explain positive patterns of density-dependent fecundity in animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penteriani, Vincenzo; Otalora, Fermín; Ferrer, Miguel

    2006-11-01

    After some 70 years of debate on density-dependent regulation of animal populations, there is still poor understanding of where spatial and temporal density dependence occurs. Clearly defining the portion of the population that shapes density-dependent patterns may help to solve some of the ambiguities that encircle density dependence and its patterns. In fact, individuals of the same species and population can show different dynamics and behaviors depending on their locations (e.g., breeding vs. dispersal areas). Considering this form of intrapopulation heterogeneity may improve our understanding of density dependence and population dynamics in general. We present the results of individual-based simulations on a metapopulation of the Spanish imperial eagle Aquila adalberti. Our results suggest that high rates of floater mortality within settlement areas can determine a shift in the classical relationship (from negative to positive) between the fecundity (i.e., fledglings per pair) and density (i.e., number of pairs) of the breeding population. Finally, we proved that different initial conditions affecting the breeder portion of the population can lead to the same values of fecundity. Our results can represent a starting point for new and more complex approaches studying the regulation of animal populations, where the forgotten and invisible component--the floater--is taken into account.

  7. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  8. Students individual engagement in GIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Lene Møller; Christiansen, Frederik V; Rump, Camilla Østerberg

    2014-01-01

    in planning and management. The analysis shows that both the theoretical perspectives and the custom and didactical contract are important to understand students' engagement in GIS. However, it is the personal desiderata that are the key to understanding the students' different engagement. Further, a temporal......This paper develops two sets of concepts to theorize why students engage differently in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). These theoretical concepts are used as an analytical lens to explore empirical data on the experiences and engagement of students enrolled in an undergraduate GIS course...... dimension and contextual awareness are important in understanding students' engagement in a broader perspective....

  9. The effect of EIF dynamics on the cryopreservation process of a size distributed cell population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadda, S; Briesen, H; Cincotti, A

    2011-06-01

    Typical mathematical modeling of cryopreservation of cell suspensions assumes a thermodynamic equilibrium between the ice and liquid water in the extracellular solution. This work investigates the validity of this assumption by introducing a population balance approach for dynamic extracellular ice formation (EIF) in the absence of any cryo-protectant agent (CPA). The population balance model reflects nucleation and diffusion-limited growth in the suspending solution whose driving forces are evaluated in the relevant phase diagram. This population balance description of the extracellular compartment has been coupled to a model recently proposed in the literature [Fadda et al., AIChE Journal, 56, 2173-2185, (2010)], which is capable of quantitatively describing and predicting internal ice formation (IIF) inside the cells. The cells are characterized by a size distribution (i.e. through another population balance), thus overcoming the classic view of a population of identically sized cells. From the comparison of the system behavior in terms of the dynamics of the cell size distribution it can be concluded that the assumption of a thermodynamic equilibrium in the extracellular compartment is not always justified. Depending on the cooling rate, the dynamics of EIF needs to be considered. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUWARNO

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Suwarno (2010 Population dynamic of the swallowtail butterfly, Papilio polytes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons. Biodiversitas 11: 19-23. The population dynamic of Papilio polytes L. (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae in dry and wet seasons was investigated in the citrus orchard in Tasek Gelugor, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. Population of immature stages of P. polytes was observed alternate day from January to March 2006 (dry season, DS, from April to July 2006 (secondary wet season, SWS, and from October to December 2006 (primary wet season, PWS. The population dynamics of the immature stages of P. polytes varied between seasons. The immature stages of P. polytes are more abundance and significantly different in the PWS than those of the DS and the SWS. The larval densities in all seasons decreased with progressive development of the instar stages. Predators and parasitoids are the main factor in regulating the population abundance of immature stages of P. polytes. There were positive correlations between the abundance of immature stages of P. polytes and their natural enemies abundance in each season. Ooencyrtus papilioni Ashmead (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae is the most egg parasitoid. Oxyopes quadrifasciatus L. Koch. and O. elegans L. Koch. (Araneae: Oxyopidae are the main predators in the young larvae, meanwhile Sycanus dichotomus Stal. (Heteroptera: Reduviidae, Calotes versicolor Fitzinger (Squamata: Agamidae, birds and praying mantis attacked the older larvae.

  11. Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koons, David; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semi-arid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, we...... spring temperature could have a greater ‘relative effect’ on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife...... applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-year time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible...

  12. Population dynamics of graphene driven by a few-cycle laser pulse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Chunling; Yu, Rong; Hao, Xiangying; Zhang, Duo; Zu, Fengxia

    2017-06-01

    We study the time evolution of the populations in a two-dimensional (2D) graphene system by employing a few-cycle laser pulse with a linear polarization. Specifically, we present a comparative numerical analysis of the population dynamics of graphene in three different model configurations. Our results show that the Rabi-like oscillations and intraband population inversion can be observed in the population spectrum, which originated from the periodicity of a few-cycle laser pulse and the intraband Coulomb scattering. Also, coherent population oscillations are produced across the Dirac point when the Rabi frequency of the laser field which is used to couple the interband transition is much larger than that couples the intraband transition, and vice versa. These investigations may be helpful to enhance the performance of graphene-based ultrafast electronic and optoelectronic devices, including light-emitting devices, touch screens, photodetectors, and ultrafast lasers.

  13. Monitoring methanogenic population dynamics in a full-scale anaerobic digester to facilitate operational management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Julie; Williams, Haydn; Dinsdale, Richard; Guwy, Alan; Esteves, Sandra

    2013-07-01

    Microbial populations in a full-scale anaerobic digester fed on food waste were monitored over an 18-month period using qPCR. The digester exhibited a highly dynamic environment in which methanogenic populations changed constantly in response to availability of substrates and inhibitors. The methanogenic population in the digester was dominated by Methanosaetaceae, suggesting that aceticlastic methanogenesis was the main route for the production of methane. Sudden losses (69%) in Methanosaetaceae were followed by a build-up of VFAs which were subsequently consumed when populations recovered. A build up of ammonium inhibited Methanosaetaceae and resulted in shifts from acetate to hydrogen utilization. Addition of trace elements and alkalinity when propionate levels were high stimulated microbial growth. Routine monitoring of microbial populations and VFAs provided valuable insights into the complex processes occurring within the digester and could be used to predict digester stability and facilitate digester optimization. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The escalatory Red Queen: Population extinction and replacement following arms race dynamics in poplar rust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persoons, Antoine; Hayden, Katherine J; Fabre, Bénédicte; Frey, Pascal; De Mita, Stéphane; Tellier, Aurélien; Halkett, Fabien

    2017-04-01

    Host-parasite systems provide convincing examples of Red Queen co-evolutionary dynamics. Yet, a key process underscored in Van Valen's theory - that arms race dynamics can result in extinction - has never been documented. One reason for this may be that most sampling designs lack the breadth needed to illuminate the rapid pace of adaptation by pathogen populations. In this study, we used a 25-year temporal sampling to decipher the demographic history of a plant pathogen: the poplar rust fungus, Melampsora larici-populina. A major adaptive event occurred in 1994 with the breakdown of R7 resistance carried by several poplar cultivars widely planted in Western Europe since 1982. The corresponding virulence rapidly spread in M. larici-populina populations and nearly reached fixation in northern France, even on susceptible hosts. Using both temporal records of virulence profiles and temporal population genetic data, our analyses revealed that (i) R7 resistance breakdown resulted in the emergence of a unique and homogeneous genetic group, the so-called cultivated population, which predominated in northern France for about 20 years, (ii) selection for Vir7 individuals brought with it multiple other virulence types via hitchhiking, resulting in an overall increase in the population-wide number of virulence types and (iii) - above all - the emergence of the cultivated population superseded the initial population which predominated at the same place before R7 resistance breakdown. Our temporal analysis illustrates how antagonistic co-evolution can lead to population extinction and replacement, hence providing direct evidence for the escalation process which is at the core of Red Queen dynamics. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.; Reeves, G. D.; Su, Z. P.; Baker, D. N.; Spence, H. E.; Funsten, H. O.; Blake, J. B.

    2017-05-01

    Using the particle data measured by Van Allen Probe A from October 2012 to March 2016, we investigate in detail the radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storms. The period of the storm recovery phase was limited to 72 h. The statistical study shows that geomagnetic storms and substorms play important roles in the radiation belt seed population (336 keV electrons) dynamics. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of "large flux enhancement" and "small flux enhancement." For large flux enhancement storm events, the correlation coefficients between the peak flux location of the seed population and those of relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) during the storm recovery phase decrease with electron kinetic energy, being 0.92, 0.68, 0.49, and 0.39, respectively. The correlation coefficients between the peak flux of the seed population and those of relativistic electrons are 0.92, 0.81, 0.75, and 0.73. For small flux enhancement storm events, the correlation coefficients between the peak flux location of the seed population and those of relativistic electrons are relatively smaller, while the peak flux of the seed population is well correlated with those of relativistic electrons (correlation coefficients >0.84). It is suggested that during geomagnetic storms there is a good correlation between the seed population and ≤1 MeV electrons and the seed population is important to the relativistic electron dynamics.

  16. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  17. Population and phase dynamics of F=1 spinor condensates in an external magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romano, D.R.; Passos, E.J.V. de

    2004-01-01

    We show that the classical dynamics underlying the mean-field description of homogeneous mixtures of spinor F=1 Bose-Einstein condensates in an external magnetic field is integrable as a consequence of number conservation and axial symmetry in spin space. The population dynamics depends only on the quadratic term of the Zeeman energy and on the strength of the spin-dependent term of the atom-atom interaction. We determine the equilibrium populations as function of the ratio of these two quantities and the miscibility of the hyperfine components in the ground state spinors are thoroughly discussed. Outside the equilibrium, the populations are always a periodic function of time where the periodic motion can be a libration or a rotation. Our studies also indicate the absence of metastability

  18. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    Soil protozoa are characterized by their ability to produce cysts, which allows them to survive unfavorable conditions (e.g., desiccation) for extended periods. Under favorable conditions, they may rapidly excyst and begin feeding, but even under optimal conditions, a large proportion of the popu......Soil protozoa are characterized by their ability to produce cysts, which allows them to survive unfavorable conditions (e.g., desiccation) for extended periods. Under favorable conditions, they may rapidly excyst and begin feeding, but even under optimal conditions, a large proportion...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...... why protozoan growth in soil is less than that in aquatic systems. Internally governed encystment may be an essential adaptation to an unpredictable environment in which individual protozoa cannot predict when the soil will dry out and will survive desiccation only if they have encysted in time....

  19. Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culcidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahumada, Jorge A.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2004-01-01

    We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1,475 and 1,715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.

  20. Seasonal population dynamics of the invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria spp. in contrasting soft-sediment habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauppi, L.; Norkko, A.; Norkko, J.

    2018-01-01

    Three species of the invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria are among the dominant benthic taxa in many, especially deeper, areas in the Baltic Sea. The population dynamics of the polychaetes in the Baltic are, however, still largely unknown. We conducted monthly samplings of the benthic communities and environmental parameters at five sites with differing depths and sediment characteristics in the northern Baltic Sea (59°50.896‧, 23°15.092‧) to study the population dynamics, productivity and growth of Marenzelleria spp. from April 2013 to June 2014. The species of Marenzelleria occurring at the study sites were identified by genetic analyses. At the deepest site (33 m) only M. arctia was present, while all three species were found at the shallower, muddy sites (up to 20 m depth). At the shallow (6 m) sandy site only M. viridis and M. neglecta occurred. The sites differed in the seasonal dynamics of the Marenzelleria spp. population, reflecting the different species identities. The muddy sites up to 20 m depth showed clear seasonal dynamics, with the population practically disappearing by winter, whereas more stable populations occurred at the deepest site and at the sandy site. The highest density, biomass and production were observed at the 20 m deep, organic-rich muddy site where all three species recruited. The seasonally very high densities are likely to have important consequences for organic matter processing, and species interactions at these sites. The observed high productivity of the populations has possibly facilitated their establishment, and considerably increased secondary production in especially the deeper areas.