WorldWideScience

Sample records for geographic exposure modeling

  1. Geographical modeling of exposure risk to cyanobacteria for epidemiological purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano, Tania; Dupas, Rémi; Upegui, Erika; Buscail, Camille; Grimaldi, Catherine; Viel, Jean François

    2015-08-01

    The cyanobacteria-derived neurotoxin β-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) represents a plausible environmental trigger for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a debilitating and fatal neuromuscular disease. With the eutrophication of water bodies, cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins are becoming increasingly prevalent in France, especially in the Brittany region. Cyanobacteria are monitored at only a few recreational sites, preventing an estimation of exposure of the human population. By contrast, phosphorus, a limiting nutrient for cyanobacterial growth and thus considered a good proxy for cyanobacteria exposure, is monitored in many but not all surface water bodies. Our goal was to develop a geographic exposure indicator that could be used in epidemiological research. We considered the total phosphorus (TP) concentration (mg/L) of samples collected between October 2007 and September 2012 at 179 monitoring stations distributed throughout the Brittany region. Using readily available spatial data, we computed environmental descriptors at the watershed level with a Geographic Information System. Then, these descriptors were introduced into a backward stepwise linear regression model to predict the median TP concentration in unmonitored surface water bodies. TP concentrations in surface water follow an increasing gradient from West to East and inland to coast. The empirical concentration model included five predictor variables with a fair coefficient of determination (R(2) = 0.51). The specific total runoff and the watershed slope correlated negatively with the TP concentrations (p = 0.01 and pcyanobacteria exposure that can be used along with other risk factors in further ALS epidemiologic case-control studies.

  2. A Geographic Approach to Modelling Human Exposure to Traffic Air Pollution using GIS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, S. S.

    at the address all the time, and an exposure estimate is also defined that takes into account the time the person spends at the address assuming standardised time-profiles depending on age groups. The exposure model takes advantage of a standard Geographic Information System (GIS) (ArcView and Avenue...... the exposure model. Input requirements are: digital maps including buildings, geocoded addresses, geocoded roads, geocoded cadastres; data from the Building and Dwelling Register (BBR); traffic data (ADT of passenger cars, van, lorries and busses) for linking to a segmented road network; population data...

  3. A geographic approach to modelling human exposure to traffic air pollution using GIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solvang Jensen, S.

    1998-10-01

    A new exposure model has been developed that is based on a physical, single media (air) and single source (traffic) micro environmental approach that estimates traffic related exposures geographically with the postal address as exposure indicator. The micro environments: residence, workplace and street (road user exposure) may be considered. The model estimates outdoor levels for selected ambient air pollutants (benzene, CO, NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3}). The influence of outdoor air pollution on indoor levels can be estimated using average (I/O-ratios. The model has a very high spatial resolution (the address), a high temporal resolution (one hour) and may be used to predict past, present and future exposures. The model may be used for impact assessment of control measures provided that the changes to the model inputs are obtained. The exposure model takes advantage of a standard Geographic Information System (GIS) (ArcView and Avenue) for generation of inputs, for visualisation of input and output, and uses available digital maps, national administrative registers and a local traffic database, and the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The exposure model presents a new approach to exposure determination by integration of digital maps, administrative registers, a street pollution model and GIS. New methods have been developed to generate the required input parameters for the OSPM model: to geocode buildings using cadastral maps and address points, to automatically generate street configuration data based on digital maps, the BBR and GIS; to predict the temporal variation in traffic and related parameters; and to provide hourly background levels for the OSPM model. (EG) 109 refs.

  4. A geographic approach to modelling human exposure to traffic air pollution using GIS. Separate appendix report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solvang Jensen, S.

    1998-10-01

    A new exposure model has been developed that is based on a physical, single media (air) and single source (traffic) micro environmental approach that estimates traffic related exposures geographically with the postal address as exposure indicator. The micro environments: residence, workplace and street (road user exposure) may be considered. The model estimates outdoor levels for selected ambient air pollutants (benzene, CO, NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3}). The influence of outdoor air pollution on indoor levels can be estimated using average (I/O-ratios. The model has a very high spatial resolution (the address), a high temporal resolution (one hour) and may be used to predict past, present and future exposures. The model may be used for impact assessment of control measures provided that the changes to the model inputs are obtained. The exposure model takes advantage of a standard Geographic Information System (GIS) (ArcView and Avenue) for generation of inputs, for visualisation of input and output, and uses available digital maps, national administrative registers and a local traffic database, and the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The exposure model presents a new approach to exposure determination by integration of digital maps, administrative registers, a street pollution model and GIS. New methods have been developed to generate the required input parameters for the OSPM model: to geocode buildings using cadastral maps and address points, to automatically generate street configuration data based on digital maps, the BBR and GIS; to predict the temporal variation in traffic and related parameters; and to provide hourly background levels for the OSPM model. (EG)

  5. Conceptual Model of Dynamic Geographic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martínez-Rosales Miguel Alejandro

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In geographic environments, there are many and different types of geographic entities such as automobiles, trees, persons, buildings, storms, hurricanes, etc. These entities can be classified into two groups: geographic objects and geographic phenomena. By its nature, a geographic environment is dynamic, thus, it’s static modeling is not sufficient. Considering the dynamics of geographic environment, a new type of geographic entity called event is introduced. The primary target is a modeling of geographic environment as an event sequence, because in this case the semantic relations are much richer than in the case of static modeling. In this work, the conceptualization of this model is proposed. It is based on the idea to process each entity apart instead of processing the environment as a whole. After that, the so called history of each entity and its spatial relations to other entities are defined to describe the whole environment. The main goal is to model systems at a conceptual level that make use of spatial and temporal information, so that later it can serve as the semantic engine for such systems.

  6. General Geographical Economics Model with Congestion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe derive and discuss a general, but simple geographical economics model with congestion, allowing us to explain the economic viability of small and large locations. The model generalizes some previous work and lends itself to analyzing the impact of public policy in terms of

  7. MODELING FUZZY GEOGRAPHIC OBJECTS WITHIN FUZZY FIELDS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    To improve the current GIS functions in describing geographic objects w ith fuzziness,this paper begins with a discussion on the distance measure of sp atial objects based on the theory of sets and an introduction of dilation and er osion operators.Under the assumption that changes of attributes in a geographic region are gradual,the analytic expressions for the fuzzy objects of points,l ines and areas,and the description of their formal structures are presented.Th e analytic model of geographic objects by means of fuzzy fields is developed.We have shown that the 9-intersection model proposed by Egenhofer and Franzosa (19 91) is a special case of the model presented in the paper.

  8. Higher-dimensional modelling of geographic information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arroyo Ohori, G.A.K.

    2016-01-01

    Our world is three-dimensional and complex, continuously changing over time and appearing different at different scales. Yet, when we model it in a computer using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), we mostly use 2D representations, which essentially consist of linked points, lines and polygons. T

  9. Modeling uncertainty in geographic information and analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Uncertainty modeling and data quality for spatial data and spatial analyses are im-portant topics in geographic information science together with space and time in geography,as well as spatial analysis. In the past two decades,a lot of efforts have been made to research the uncertainty modeling for spatial data and analyses. This paper presents our work in the research. In particular,four progresses in the re-search are given out: (a) from determinedness-to uncertainty-based representation of geographic objects in GIS; (b) from uncertainty modeling for static data to dy-namic spatial analyses; (c) from modeling uncertainty for spatial data to models; and (d) from error descriptions to quality control for spatial data.

  10. A multidimensional representation model of geographic features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usery, E. Lynn; Timson, George; Coletti, Mark

    2016-01-28

    A multidimensional model of geographic features has been developed and implemented with data from The National Map of the U.S. Geological Survey. The model, programmed in C++ and implemented as a feature library, was tested with data from the National Hydrography Dataset demonstrating the capability to handle changes in feature attributes, such as increases in chlorine concentration in a stream, and feature geometry, such as the changing shoreline of barrier islands over time. Data can be entered directly, from a comma separated file, or features with attributes and relationships can be automatically populated in the model from data in the Spatial Data Transfer Standard format.

  11. Geographical information modelling for land resource survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de S.

    2000-01-01

    The increasing popularity of geographical information systems (GIS) has at least three major implications for land resources survey. Firstly, GIS allows alternative and richer representation of spatial phenomena than is possible with the traditional paper map. Secondly, digital technology has improv

  12. Generalisation of geographic information cartographic modelling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mackaness, William A; Sarjakoski, L Tiina

    2011-01-01

    Theoretical and Applied Solutions in Multi Scale MappingUsers have come to expect instant access to up-to-date geographical information, with global coverage--presented at widely varying levels of detail, as digital and paper products; customisable data that can readily combined with other geographic information. These requirements present an immense challenge to those supporting the delivery of such services (National Mapping Agencies (NMA), Government Departments, and private business. Generalisation of Geographic Information: Cartographic Modelling and Applications provides detailed review

  13. Human Exposure Modeling - Databases to Support Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human exposure modeling relates pollutant concentrations in the larger environmental media to pollutant concentrations in the immediate exposure media. The models described here are available on other EPA websites.

  14. Modeling a geographically distributed MEMS fabrication network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benard, William L.; Huff, Michael A.

    2001-04-01

    Manufacturing is typically limited to fabrication of parts at a single location, with some sites assembling components from parts made elsewhere. The age of ubiquitous information transfer has made it conceivable to distribute manufacturing geographically, in order to provide access to unique manufacturing capabilities in a flexible manner. If the overhead of a distributed manufacturing network can be adequately reduced, it has the potential to make previously cost ineffective low volume and custom applications economically feasible. The MEMS-Exchange is an infrastructural service available to the domestic microelectromechanical systems community that provides an interface between MEMS designers and microfabrication facilities (academic, commercial, and government labs) which allows designers to develop and exercise custom process sequences in order to realize their devices.

  15. Change of Geographic Information Service Model in Mobile Context

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Fu; DU Qingyun

    2005-01-01

    A research on that how the topic of mobility, which is completely different but tightly relevant to space, provides new approaches and methods so as to promote the further development of geographic information services, will accumulate basic experience for different types of relative information systems in the wide fields of location based services. This paper analyzes the meaning of mobility and the change for geographic information service model, it describes the differences and correlation between M-GIS and traditional GIS. It sets a technical framework of geographic information services according to mobile context and provides a case study.

  16. Modeling the geographical studies with GeoGebra-software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionica Soare

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of mathematical modeling in geography is one of the most important strategies in order to establish the evolution and the prevision of geographical phenomena. Models must have a simplified structure, to reflect essential components and must be selective, structured, and suggestive and approximate the reality. Models could be static or dynamic, developed in a theoretical, symbolic, conceptual or mental way, mathematically modeled. The present paper is focused on the virtual model which uses GeoGebra software, free and available at www.geogebra.org, in order to establish new methods of geographical analysis in a dynamic, didactic way.

  17. Modeling the geographical studies with GeoGebra-software

    CERN Document Server

    Soare, Ionica

    2012-01-01

    The problem of mathematical modeling in geography is one of the most important strategies in order to establish the evolution and the prevision of geographical phenomena. Models must have a simplified structure, to reflect essential components and must be selective, structured, and suggestive and approximate the reality. Models could be static or dynamic, developed in a theoretical, symbolic, conceptual or mental way, mathematically modeled. The present paper is focused on the virtual model which uses GeoGebra software, free and available at www.geogebra.org, in order to establish new methods of geographical analysis in a dynamic, didactic way.

  18. Weather impact forecasting using MOGREPS with socially- and geographically-derived vulnerability and exposure datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Joanne

    2010-05-01

    Hazardous weather has a major impact on health and safety and on the economy in the UK and other countries. This has renewed efforts within the Met Office to develop a system that can predict weather related impacts, extending the Office's ability to warn the public and business sectors of potential weather related hazards. Ultimately the prediction of both an impending weather hazard and its potential for impact will allow concise decision making to implement mitigation strategies. A diagnostic tool has been developed for the UK transport network, which focuses on quantifying the risk of specific vehicle types overturning in strong winds or being disrupted due to heavy snow. The impacts to those using the network are then quantified in terms of journey delay times and number of people affected. For this tool to be effective it requires vulnerability and exposure datasets to be combined with the probability of hazardous weather occurring. Probabilities are obtained from MOGREPS (Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System), while vulnerability is a combined field which determines the varying structural and geographical attributes of each kilometre segment of motorway route. A segment's attributes influence the likelihood of that location having weather related impacts, and the severity of these impacts. The exposure field accounts for the changes in traffic flow by vehicle type, day of the week and time of the day, and increases risk of disruption if the route has high traffic flows while reducing the risk in low traffic flow areas. The model has been shown to be useful in the Met Office Operations Centre where it is used as a support tool for issuing weather warnings. However, verification of the output has been difficult due to the lack of severe wind gust events over the trial period and the difficulty in obtaining accurate impact verification information. The Highways Agency is now on board, both receiving the model's output in their Operations

  19. Evaluation of Database Modeling Methods for Geographic Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanasis Hadzilacos

    1998-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a systematic evaluation of different modeling techniques for the design of Geographic Information Systems as we experienced them through theoretical research and real world applications. A set of exemplary problems for spatial systems on which the suitability of models can be tested is discussed. We analyse the use of a specific database design methodology including the phases of conceptual, logical and physical modeling. By employing, at each phase, representative models of classical and object-oriented approaches we assess their efficiency in spatial data handling. At the conceptual phase, we show how the Entity-Relationship, EFO and OMT models deal with the geographic needs; at the logical phase we argue why the relational model is good to serve as a basis to accommodate these requirements, but not good enough as a stand alone solution.

  20. Modelling geographical graduate job search using circular statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faggian, Alessandra; Corcoran, Jonathan; McCann, Philip

    2013-01-01

    Theory suggests that the spatial patterns of migration flows are contingent both on individual human capital and underlying geographical structures. Here we demonstrate these features by using circular statistics in an econometric modelling framework applied to the flows of UK university graduates.

  1. Determinants of geographic patterns of diseases: interaction of lactose/lactase status and sunshine exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilagyi, Andrew

    2010-11-01

    Geographic patterns of diseases depend on multilayered causes. However, the division of the world's population into two phenotypes regarding lactose digestion and sunshine exposure to fixed areas of the globe are two relatively slow changing variables. It is hypothesized that it is a vectorial interaction between these two variables that provide a backbone to risk modification of many diseases. Lactase non persistence status tends to follow sunshine exposure particularly in Europe but Lactase persistence status is also been shown to be related to pastoral life styles in spotty regions of Africa, Middle East and China. Current emphasis of research favours the modifying role of vitamin D and sunshine. Nevertheless it was demonstrated that national digester/nondigester status has mathematical relationships to geographic distribution of some diseases. These relationships are also similar to that described for the effects of latitude through sunshine and vitamin D. This observation raises a question as to how each one affects disease outcome. In this paper lactose/lactase interactions are first reviewed for eight exemplary diseases. Based on population findings and corroborative meta-analyses gleaned from the literature 6 types of interactions may be classified. Then in a preliminary fashion lactose digester and maldigester status are related to relative annual sunshine exposure. Further the relative national annual sunshine exposure is evaluated to outcomes of the same exemplary diseases. The patterns related to sunshine reflect that obtained with national lactase status proportions and also corroborate a literature review. However, correlations are weak to moderate and only ovarian cancer reached conventional statistical significance. Because these comparisons are based on modest number of national data firm conclusions cannot be made. However, it is argued that evolutionary pressures exerted by regional sunshine exposure may have had influence on a number of relevant

  2. Estimation of individual cumulative ultraviolet exposure using a geographically-adjusted, openly-accessible tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Gefei A; Raber, Inbar; Sakshuwong, Sukolsak; Li, Shufeng; Li, Angela S; Tan, Caroline; Chang, Anne Lynn S

    2016-01-20

    Estimates of an individual's cumulative ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure can be useful since ultraviolet radiation exposure increases skin cancer risk, but a comprehensive tool that is practical for use in the clinic does not currently exist. The objective of this study is to develop a geographically-adjusted tool to systematically estimate an individual's self-reported cumulative UV radiation exposure, investigate the association of these estimates with skin cancer diagnosis, and assess test reliability. A 12-item online questionnaire from validated survey items for UV exposure and skin cancer was administered to online volunteers across the United States and results cross-referenced with UV radiation indices. Cumulative UV exposure scores (CUES) were calculated and correlated with personal history of skin cancer in a case-control design. Reliability was assessed in a separate convenience sample. 1,118 responses were included in the overall sample; the mean age of respondents was 46 (standard deviation 15, range 18 - 81) and 150 (13 %) reported a history of skin cancer. In bivariate analysis of 1:2 age-matched cases (n = 149) and controls (n = 298), skin cancer cases were associated with (1) greater CUES prior to first skin cancer diagnosis than controls without skin cancer history (242,074 vs. 205,379, p = 0.003) and (2) less engagement in UV protective behaviors (p analysis of age-matched data, individuals with CUES in the lowest quartile were less likely to develop skin cancer compared to those in the highest quartile. In reliability testing among 19 volunteers, the 2-week intra-class correlation coefficient for CUES was 0.94. We have provided the programming code for this tool as well as the tool itself via open access. CUES is a useable and comprehensive tool to better estimate lifetime ultraviolet exposure, so that individuals with higher levels of exposure may be identified for counseling on photo-protective measures.

  3. Modelling exposure opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabel, Clive E.; Gatrell, Anthony C.; Löytönen, Markku;

    2000-01-01

    emergence of the disease, with specific reference to the rare neurological condition, motor neurone disease (MND), using a dataset obtained from the Finnish Death Certificate registry, for MND deaths between the period 1985-1995. A space-time approach is adopted, whereby patterns in both time and space......This paper addresses the issues surrounding an individual's exposure to potential environmental risk factors, which can be implicated in the aetiology of a disease. We hope to further elucidate the 'lag' or latency period between the initial exposure to potential pathogens and the physical...

  4. Collecting, Visualising, Communicating and Modelling Geographic Data for the Sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, A.; Hudson-Smith, A.; Milton, R.; Smith, D.; Batty, M.; Neuhaus, F.

    2009-12-01

    New web technologies and task specific software packages and services are fundamentally changing the way we share, collect, visualise, communicate and distribute geographic information. Coupled with these new technologies is the emergence of rich fine scale and extensive geographical datasets of the built environment. Such technologies and data are providing opportunities for both the social and physical sciences that were unimaginable ten years ago. Within this paper we discus such change from our own experiences at the Centre of Advanced Spatial Analysis. Specifically, how it is now possible to harness the crowd to collect peoples’ opinions about topical events such as the current financial crisis, in real time and map the results, through the use of our GMapCreator software and the MapTube website. Furthermore, such tools allow for widespread dissemination and visualisation of geographic data to whoever has an internet connection. We will explore how one can use new datasets to visualise the city using our Virtual London model as an example. Within the model individual buildings are tagged with multiple attributes providing a lens to explore the urban structure offering a plethora of research applications. We then turn to how one can visualise and communicate such data through low cost software and virtual worlds such as Crysis and Second Life with a look into their potential for modelling and finally how we disseminated much of this information through weblogs (blogs) such as Digital Urban, GIS and Agent-based modelling and Urban Tick.

  5. Modeled population exposures to ozone

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Population exposures to ozone from APEX modeling for combinations of potential future air quality and demographic change scenarios. This dataset is not publicly...

  6. Parameters Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Widyaningsih, Purnami

    2017-06-01

    A regression model is the representation of relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. The dependent variable has categories used in the logistic regression model to calculate odds on. The logistic regression model for dependent variable has levels in the logistics regression model is ordinal. GWOLR model is an ordinal logistic regression model influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation in the model needed to determine the value of a population based on sample. The purpose of this research is to parameters estimation of GWOLR model using R software. Parameter estimation uses the data amount of dengue fever patients in Semarang City. Observation units used are 144 villages in Semarang City. The results of research get GWOLR model locally for each village and to know probability of number dengue fever patient categories.

  7. Water quality modeling using geographic information system (GIS) data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Bernard A

    1992-01-01

    Protection of the environment and natural resources at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is of great concern. The potential for surface and ground water quality problems resulting from non-point sources of pollution was examined using models. Since spatial variation of parameters required was important, geographic information systems (GIS) and their data were used. The potential for groundwater contamination was examined using the SEEPAGE (System for Early Evaluation of the Pollution Potential of Agricultural Groundwater Environments) model. A watershed near the VAB was selected to examine potential for surface water pollution and erosion using the AGNPS (Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution) model.

  8. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  9. Fuzzy modeling with spatial information for geographic problems

    CERN Document Server

    Petry, Frederick E; Cobb, Maria A

    2005-01-01

    The capabilities of modern technology are rapidly increasing, spurred on to a large extent by the tremendous advances in communications and computing. Automated vehicles and global wireless connections are some examples of these advances. In order to take advantage of such enhanced capabilities, our need to model and manipulate our knowledge of the geophysical world, using compatible representations, is also rapidly increasing. In response to this one fundamental issue of great concern in modern geographical research is how to most effectively capture the physical world around us in systems like geographical information systems (GIS). Making this task even more challenging is the fact that uncertainty plays a pervasive role in the representation, analysis and use of geospatial information. The types of uncertainty that appear in geospatial information systems are not the just simple randomness of observation, as in weather data, but are manifested in many other forms including imprecision, incompleteness and ...

  10. 76 FR 365 - Exposure Modeling Public Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-04

    ... meeting will include presentations related to the spatial context of terrestrial exposure modeling... degradation rates. Developments in terrestrial exposure modeling. Determining the fate and transport of... photography and GIS data. Dermal contact, movement, and amphibian pesticide exposure. List of...

  11. A Framework for Conceptual Modeling of Geographic Data Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Christensen, Anders; Christensen, J.V.; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2004-01-01

    Sustained advances in wireless communications, geo-positioning, and consumer electronics pave the way to a kind of location-based service that relies on the tracking of the continuously changing positions of an entire population of service users. This type of service is characterized by large...... determined by how "good" the data is, as different applications of geographic data require different qualities of the data are met. Such qualities concern the object level as well as the attribute level of the data. This paper presents a systematic and integrated approach to the conceptual modeling...

  12. Reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling during the Cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J. J.; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Sluijs, Appy; Abels, Hemmo A.; Bijl, Peter K.

    2016-08-01

    Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate a global geographical reconstruction for the middle-late Eocene. The generalised procedure is also reusable to create reconstructions for other time slices within the Cenozoic, suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth-age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicate that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain

  13. Complementarity of Historic Building Information Modelling and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Koehl, M.; Grussenmeyer, P.; Macher, H.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we discuss the potential of integrating both semantically rich models from Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to build the detailed 3D historic model. BIM contributes to the creation of a digital representation having all physical and functional building characteristics in several dimensions, as e.g. XYZ (3D), time and non-architectural information that are necessary for construction and management of buildings. GIS has potential in handling and managing spatial data especially exploring spatial relationships and is widely used in urban modelling. However, when considering heritage modelling, the specificity of irregular historical components makes it problematic to create the enriched model according to its complex architectural elements obtained from point clouds. Therefore, some open issues limiting the historic building 3D modelling will be discussed in this paper: how to deal with the complex elements composing historic buildings in BIM and GIS environment, how to build the enriched historic model, and why to construct different levels of details? By solving these problems, conceptualization, documentation and analysis of enriched Historic Building Information Modelling are developed and compared to traditional 3D models aimed primarily for visualization.

  14. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido

    2017-04-01

    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  15. The health effects of exposure to arsenic-contaminated drinking water: a review by global geographical distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei; Wu, Haiyun; van der Kuijp, Tsering Jan

    2015-01-01

    Chronic arsenic exposure through drinking water has been a vigorously studied and debated subject. However, the existing literature does not allow for a thorough examination of the potential regional discrepancies that may arise among arsenic-related health outcomes. The purpose of this article is to provide an updated review of the literature on arsenic exposure and commonly discussed health effects according to global geographical distribution. This geographically segmented approach helps uncover the discrepancies in the health effects of arsenic. For instance, women are more susceptible than men to a few types of cancer in Taiwan, but not in other countries. Although skin cancer and arsenic exposure correlations have been discovered in Chile, Argentina, the United States, and Taiwan, no evident association was found in mainland China. We then propose several globally applicable recommendations to prevent and treat the further spread of arsenic poisoning and suggestions of future study designs and decision-making.

  16. Accuracy of two geocoding methods for geographic information system-based exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faure, Elodie; Danjou, Aurélie M N; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Dossus, Laure; Fervers, Béatrice

    2017-02-24

    Environmental exposure assessment based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and study participants' residential proximity to environmental exposure sources relies on the positional accuracy of subjects' residences to avoid misclassification bias. Our study compared the positional accuracy of two automatic geocoding methods to a manual reference method. We geocoded 4,247 address records representing the residential history (1990-2008) of 1,685 women from the French national E3N cohort living in the Rhône-Alpes region. We compared two automatic geocoding methods, a free-online geocoding service (method A) and an in-house geocoder (method B), to a reference layer created by manually relocating addresses from method A (method R). For each automatic geocoding method, positional accuracy levels were compared according to the urban/rural status of addresses and time-periods (1990-2000, 2001-2008), using Chi Square tests. Kappa statistics were performed to assess agreement of positional accuracy of both methods A and B with the reference method, overall, by time-periods and by urban/rural status of addresses. Respectively 81.4% and 84.4% of addresses were geocoded to the exact address (65.1% and 61.4%) or to the street segment (16.3% and 23.0%) with methods A and B. In the reference layer, geocoding accuracy was higher in urban areas compared to rural areas (74.4% vs. 10.5% addresses geocoded to the address or interpolated address level, p < 0.0001); no difference was observed according to the period of residence. Compared to the reference method, median positional errors were 0.0 m (IQR = 0.0-37.2 m) and 26.5 m (8.0-134.8 m), with positional errors <100 m for 82.5% and 71.3% of addresses, for method A and method B respectively. Positional agreement of method A and method B with method R was 'substantial' for both methods, with kappa coefficients of 0.60 and 0.61 for methods A and B, respectively. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of geocoding

  17. Modeling geographic and demographic variability in residential concentrations of environmental tobacco smoke using national data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahine, Teresa; Schultz, Bradley; Zartarian, Valerie; Subramanian, S V; Spengler, John; Hammitt, James; Levy, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    Despite substantial attention toward environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure, previous studies have not provided adequate information to apply broadly within community-scale risk assessments. We aim to estimate residential concentrations of particulate matter (PM) from ETS in sociodemographic and geographic subpopulations in the United States for the purpose of screening-level risk assessment. We developed regression models to characterize smoking using the 2006-7 Current Population Survey--Tobacco Use Supplement, and linked these with air exchange models using the 2007 American Housing Survey. Using repeated logistic and log-linear models (n = 1000), we investigated whether household variables from the 2000 United States census can predict exposure likelihood and ETS-PM concentration in exposed households. We estimated a mean ETS-PM concentration of 16 μg/m(3) among the 17% of homes with non-zero exposure (3 μg/m(3) overall), with substantial variability among homes. The highest exposure likelihood was in the South and Midwest regions, rural populations, and low-income households. Concentrations in exposed households were highest in the South and demonstrated a non-monotonic association with income, related to air exchange rate patterns. We provide estimates of ETS-PM concentration distributions for different subpopulations in the United States, providing a starting point for communities interested in characterizing aggregate and cumulative risks from indoor pollutants.

  18. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  19. A geographical model of radio-frequency power density around mobile phone masts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, David; Beale, Linda; Bennett, James; Toledano, Mireille B; de Hoogh, Kees

    2012-06-01

    Public concern about possible health effects of EMF radiation from mobile phone masts has led to an increase of epidemiological studies and health risk assessments which, in turn, require adequate methods of exposure estimation. Difficulties in exposure modelling are exacerbated both by the complexity of the propagation processes, and the need to obtain estimates for large study populations in order to provide sufficient statistical power to detect or exclude the small relative risks that might exist. Use of geographical information system (GIS) techniques offers the means to make such computations efficiently. This paper describes the development and field validation of a GIS-based exposure model (Geomorf). The model uses a modified Gaussian formulation to represent spatial variations in power densities around mobile phone masts, on the basis of power output, antenna height, tilt and the surrounding propagation environment. Obstruction by topography is allowed for, through use of a visibility function. Model calibration was done using field data from 151 measurement sites (1510 antenna-specific measurements) around a group of masts in a rural location, and 50 measurement sites (658 antenna-specific measurements) in an urban area. Different parameter settings were found to be necessary in urban and rural areas to obtain optimum results. The calibrated models were then validated against independent sets of data gathered from measurement surveys in rural and urban areas, and model performance was compared with that of two commonly used path-loss models (the COST-231 adaptations of the Hata and Walfisch-Ikegami models). Model performance was found to vary somewhat between the rural and urban areas, and at different measurement levels (antenna-specific power density, total power density), but overall gave good estimates (R(2)=0.641 and 0.615, RMSE=10.7 and 6.7 dB m at the antenna and site-level respectively). Performance was considerably better than that of both path

  20. Effective 3-D surface modeling for geographic information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yüksek

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we propose a dynamic, flexible and interactive urban digital terrain platform (DTP with spatial data and query processing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS, multimedia database functionality and graphical modeling infrastructure. A new data element, called Geo-Node, which stores image, spatial data and 3-D CAD objects is developed using an efficient data structure. The system effectively handles data transfer of Geo-Nodes between main memory and secondary storage with an optimized Directional Replacement Policy (DRP based buffer management scheme. Polyhedron structures are used in Digital Surface Modeling (DSM and smoothing process is performed by interpolation. The experimental results show that our framework achieves high performance and works effectively with urban scenes independent from the amount of spatial data and image size. The proposed platform may contribute to the development of various applications such as Web GIS systems based on 3-D graphics standards (e.g. X3-D and VRML and services which integrate multi-dimensional spatial information and satellite/aerial imagery.

  1. Effective 3-D surface modeling for geographic information systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yüksek, K.; Alparslan, M.; Mendi, E.

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we propose a dynamic, flexible and interactive urban digital terrain platform with spatial data and query processing capabilities of geographic information systems, multimedia database functionality and graphical modeling infrastructure. A new data element, called Geo-Node, which stores image, spatial data and 3-D CAD objects is developed using an efficient data structure. The system effectively handles data transfer of Geo-Nodes between main memory and secondary storage with an optimized directional replacement policy (DRP) based buffer management scheme. Polyhedron structures are used in digital surface modeling and smoothing process is performed by interpolation. The experimental results show that our framework achieves high performance and works effectively with urban scenes independent from the amount of spatial data and image size. The proposed platform may contribute to the development of various applications such as Web GIS systems based on 3-D graphics standards (e.g., X3-D and VRML) and services which integrate multi-dimensional spatial information and satellite/aerial imagery.

  2. High Level Waste Tank Closure Modeling with Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BOLLINGER, JAMES

    2004-07-29

    Waste removal from 49 underground storage tanks located in two tank farms involves three steps: bulk waste removal, water washing to remove residual waste, and in some cases chemical cleaning to remove additional residual waste. Not all waste can be completely removed by these processes-resulting in some residual waste loading following cleaning. Completely removing this residual waste would be prohibitively expensive; therefore, it will be stabilized by filling the tanks with grout. Acceptable residual waste loading inventories were determined using one-dimensional groundwater transport modeling to predict future human exposure based on several scenarios. These modeling results have been incorporated into a geographic information systems (GIS) application for rapid evaluation of various tank closure options.

  3. Violent crime exposure classification and adverse birth outcomes: a geographically-defined cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herring Amy

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Area-level socioeconomic disparities have long been associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Crime is an important element of the neighborhood environment inadequately investigated in the reproductive and public health literature. When crime has been used in research, it has been variably defined, resulting in non-comparable associations across studies. Methods Using geocoded linked birth record, crime and census data in multilevel models, this paper explored the relevance of four spatial violent crime exposures: two proximal violent crime categorizations (count of violent crime within a one-half mile radius of maternal residence and distance from maternal residence to nearest violent crime and two area-level crime categorizations (count of violent crimes within a block group and block group rate of violent crimes for adverse birth events among women in living in the city of Raleigh NC crime report area in 1999–2001. Models were adjusted for maternal age and education and area-level deprivation. Results In black and white non-Hispanic race-stratified models, crime characterized as a proximal exposure was not able to distinguish between women experiencing adverse and women experiencing normal birth outcomes. Violent crime characterized as a neighborhood attribute was positively associated with preterm birth and low birth weight among non-Hispanic white and black women. No statistically significant interaction between area-deprivation and violent crime category was observed. Conclusion Crime is variably categorized in the literature, with little rationale provided for crime type or categorization employed. This research represents the first time multiple crime categorizations have been directly compared in association with health outcomes. Finding an effect of area-level violent crime suggests crime may best be characterized as a neighborhood attribute with important implication for adverse birth outcomes.

  4. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Catchment Hydrology: A Modified Model Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, G.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.

    2014-12-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), typically defined as depressional wetlands surrounded by uplands, support an array of hydrological and ecological processes. However, key research questions concerning the hydrological connectivity of GIWs and their impacts on downgradient surface waters remain unanswered. This is particularly important for regulation and management of these systems. For example, in the past decade United States Supreme Court decisions suggest that GIWs can be afforded protection if significant connectivity exists between these waters and traditional navigable waters. Here we developed a simulation procedure to quantify the effects of various spatial distributions of GIWs across the landscape on the downgradient hydrograph using a refined version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a catchment-scale hydrological simulation model. We modified the SWAT FORTRAN source code and employed an alternative hydrologic response unit (HRU) definition to facilitate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes and connectivity relationships to other surface waters, and to quantify their downgradient hydrological effects. We applied the modified SWAT model to an ~ 202 km2 catchment in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, exhibiting a substantial population of mapped GIWs. Results from our series of GIW distribution scenarios suggest that: (1) Our representation of GIWs within SWAT conforms to field-based characterizations of regional GIWs in most respects; (2) GIWs exhibit substantial seasonally-dependent effects upon downgradient base flow; (3) GIWs mitigate peak flows, particularly following high rainfall events; and (4) The presence of GIWs on the landscape impacts the catchment water balance (e.g., by increasing groundwater outflows). Our outcomes support the hypothesis that GIWs have an important catchment-scale effect on downgradient streamflow.

  5. Open-Source web-based geographical information system for health exposure assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evans, Barry; Sabel, Clive E

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the design and development of an open source web-based Geographical Information System allowing users to visualise, customise and interact with spatial data within their web browser. The developed application shows that by using solely Open Source software it was possible...

  6. Demographic and Geographic Differences in Exposure to Secondhand Smoke in Missouri Workplaces, 2007-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Jenine K.; Geremakis, Caroline; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Carothers, Bobbi J.; Shelton, Sarah C; Kariuki, Barbara; Kuhlenbeck, Matthew

    2011-01-01

    Introduction African Americans, Hispanics, service and blue-collar workers, and residents of rural areas are among those facing higher rates of workplace secondhand smoke exposure in states without smokefree workplace laws. Consequently, these groups also experience more negative health effects resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. The objective of this study was to examine disparities in workplace secondhand smoke exposure in a state without a comprehensive statewide smokefree workplace ...

  7. Modelling grid losses and the geographic distribution of electricity generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2005-01-01

    In Denmark more than 40% of the electricity consumption is covered by geographically scattered electricity sources namely wind power and local CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) plants. This causes problems in regard to load balancing and possible grid overloads. The potential grid problems...... and methods for solving these are analysed in this article on the basis of energy systems analyses, geographic distribution of consumption and production and grid load-flow analyses. It is concluded that by introducing scattered load balancing using local CHP plants actively and using interruptible loads...

  8. Environmental statistical modelling of mosquito vectors at different geographical scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cianci, D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropod vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, midges and flies. Vector-borne diseases pose an increasingly wider threat to global public health, both in terms of people affected and their geographical spread. Mosquitoes

  9. Environmental statistical modelling of mosquito vectors at different geographical scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cianci, D.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370432134

    2015-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropod vectors, such as mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, midges and flies. Vector-borne diseases pose an increasingly wider threat to global public health, both in terms of people affected and their geographical spread. Mosquitoes

  10. Modelling the geographic distribution of wind power and the impact on transmission needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2003-01-01

    Through energy systems modelling, transmission systems modelling and geographical modelling, the article examines the sensitivity of the response of the transmission system to the geographic distributions of wind power and in particular the sensitivity of the results to the accuracy...... of the distributed modelled. The results show that accuracy of the geographic modelling while important for the analysis of specific single transmission lines is not important for the analysis of the general response of the transmission system. The analyses thus corroborate previous analyses that demonstrated...

  11. Modelling the geographic distribution of wind power and the impact on transmission needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2003-01-01

    Through energy systems modelling, transmission systems modelling and geographical modelling, the article examines the sensitivity of the response of the transmission system to the geographic distributions of wind power and in particular the sensitivity of the results to the accuracy...... of the distributed modelled. The results show that accuracy of the geographic modelling while important for the analysis of specific single transmission lines is not important for the analysis of the general response of the transmission system. The analyses thus corroborate previous analyses that demonstrated...... that scattered laod balancing reduce transmission capacity requirements....

  12. Open-Source web-based geographical information system for health exposure assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Barry

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper presents the design and development of an open source web-based Geographical Information System allowing users to visualise, customise and interact with spatial data within their web browser. The developed application shows that by using solely Open Source software it was possible to develop a customisable web based GIS application that provides functions necessary to convey health and environmental data to experts and non-experts alike without the requirement of proprietary software.

  13. Open-Source web-based Geographical Information System for health exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Barry; Sabel, Clive E

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the design and development of an open source web-based Geographical Information System allowing users to visualise, customise and interact with spatial data within their web browser. The developed application shows that by using solely Open Source software it was possible to develop a customisable web based GIS application that provides functions necessary to convey health and environmental data to experts and non-experts alike without the requirement of proprietary software.

  14. Modeling Exposure of Mammalian Predatorsto Anticoagulant Rodenticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Elmeros, Morten

    2016-01-01

    high. We postulate that this is caused by widespread exposure due to widespread use of AR in Denmark in and around buildings. To investigate this theory a spatio-temporal model of AR use and mammalian predator distribution was created. This model was supported by data from an experimental study of mice...... and creates an exposure map based on spatio-temporal modelling of movement of mice-vectored AR (based on Apodemus flavicollis). Simulated predator territories are super-imposed over this exposure map to create an exposure index. Predictions from the model concur with field studies of AR prevalence both before...... and after the change in AR use. In most cases incidence of exposure to AR is predicted to be greater than 90%, although cessation of use in woodlots and Christmas tree plantations should reduce mean exposure concentrations. Model results suggest that the driver of high AR incidence in non-target small...

  15. Modelling grid losses and the geographic distribution of electricity generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2005-01-01

    In Denmark more than 40% of the electricity consumption is covered by geographically scattered electricity sources namely wind power and local CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) plants. This causes problems in regard to load balancing and possible grid overloads. The potential grid problems...... and methods for solving these are analysed in this article on the basis of energy systems analyses, geographic distribution of consumption and production and grid load-flow analyses. It is concluded that by introducing scattered load balancing using local CHP plants actively and using interruptible loads...... such as heat pumps, requirements of the transmission grid are lowered thereby reducing or eliminating needs of grid reinforcement. It is important that load balance is kept at local level and not just at an aggregate level....

  16. Biochemical Mechanisms for Geographical Adaptations to Novel Toxin Exposures in Butterflyfish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aileen Maldonado

    Full Text Available Some species of butterflyfish have had preyed upon corals for millions of years, yet the mechanism of butterflyfish specialized coral feeding strategy remains poorly understood. Certain butterflyfish have the ability to feed on allelochemically rich soft corals, e.g. Sinularia maxima. Cytochrome P450 (CYP is the predominant enzyme system responsible for the detoxification of dietary allelochemicals. CYP2-like and CYP3A-like content have been associated with butterflyfish that preferentially consumes allelochemically rich soft corals. To investigate the role of butterflyfish CYP2 and CYP3A enzymes in dietary preference, we conducted oral feeding experiments using homogenates of S. maxima and a toxin isolated from the coral in four species of butterflyfish with different feeding strategies. After oral exposure to the S. maxima toxin 5-episinulaptolide (5ESL, which is not normally encountered in the Hawaiian butterflyfish diet, an endemic specialist, Chaetodon multicinctus experienced 100% mortality compared to a generalist, Chaetodon auriga, which had significantly more (3-6 fold higher CYP3A-like basal content and catalytic activity. The specialist, Chaetodon unimaculatus, which preferentially feed on S. maxima in Guam, but not in Hawaii, had 100% survival, a significant induction of 8-12 fold CYP3A-like content, and an increased ability (2-fold to metabolize 5ESL over other species. Computer modeling data of CYP3A4 with 5ESL were consistent with microsomal transformation of 5ESL to a C15-16 epoxide from livers of C. unimaculatus. Epoxide formation correlated with CYP3A-like content, catalytic activity, induction, and NADPH-dependent metabolism of 5ESL. These results suggest a potentially important role for the CYP3A family in butterflyfish-coral diet selection through allelochemical detoxification.

  17. Output power levels from mobile phones in different geographical areas; implications for exposure assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lonn, S; Forssen, U; P. Vecchia; Ahlbom, A; Feychting, M

    2004-01-01

    Background: The power level used by the mobile phone is one of the most important factors determining the intensity of the radiofrequency exposure during a call. Mobile phone calls made in areas where base stations are densely situated (normally urban areas) should theoretically on average use lower output power levels than mobile phone calls made in areas with larger distances between base stations (rural areas).

  18. Geographical scenario uncertainty in generic fate and exposure factors of toxic pollutants for life-cycle impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijbregts, M A J; Lundi, S; McKone, T E; van de Meent, D

    2003-05-01

    In environmental life-cycle assessments (LCA), fate and exposure factors account for the general fate and exposure properties of chemicals under generic environmental conditions by means of 'evaluative' multi-media fate and exposure box models. To assess the effect of using different generic environmental conditions, fate and exposure factors of chemicals emitted under typical conditions of (1). Western Europe, (2). Australia and (3). the United States of America were compared with the multi-media fate and exposure box model USES-LCA. Comparing the results of the three evaluative environments, it was found that the uncertainty in fate and exposure factors for ecosystems and humans due to choice of an evaluative environment, as represented by the ratio of the 97.5th and 50th percentile, is between a factor 2 and 10. Particularly, fate and exposure factors of emissions causing effects in fresh water ecosystems and effects on human health have relatively high uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly caused by the continental difference in the average soil erosion rate, the dimensions of the fresh water and agricultural soil compartment, and the fraction of drinking water coming from ground water.

  19. Evaluation of ozone exposure indices in exposure-response modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E H; Tingey, D T; Hogsett, W E

    1988-01-01

    In exposure-response modeling, a major concern is the numerical definition of exposure in relating crop loss to O3, yet few indices have been considered. This paper addresses research in which plant growth was regressed for soybean, wheat, cotton, corn, and sorghum against 613 numerical exposure indices using the Box-Tidwell model. When the minimum sum of squared errors criterion was used, optimum performance was not attained for any single index; however, near optimum performances were achieved by two censored cumulative indices and from a class of indices called the generalized, phenologically weighted, cumulative impact indices (GPWCIs). The top-performing GPWCIs accumulated concentrations, used sigmoid weighting schemes emphasizing O3 concentrations of 0.06 ppm (118 microg m(-3)) or higher, and had phenological weighting schemes with greatest weight occurring 20 to 40 days prior to crop maturity. These findings indicate that (1) peak concentrations are important, but lower concentrations should be included in the calculations, (2) increased plant sensitivity occurs between flowering and maturity, and (3) plants respond to cumulative exposure impact.

  20. Renewal of the base model for geographic information of the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quak, C.W.; Janssen, P.; Reuvers, M.

    2009-01-01

    In 2005 a base model for geographic information in the Netherlands was published named NEN 3610. The model consist of a modeling framework (based on the ISO19100 series) and a collection of extensible base classes. In the following years many organizations have built their models in conformance to t

  1. Tiled vector data model for the geographical features of symbolized maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Haihong; Li, You; Zhang, Hang

    2017-01-01

    Electronic maps (E-maps) provide people with convenience in real-world space. Although web map services can display maps on screens, a more important function is their ability to access geographical features. An E-map that is based on raster tiles is inferior to vector tiles in terms of interactive ability because vector maps provide a convenient and effective method to access and manipulate web map features. However, the critical issue regarding rendering tiled vector maps is that geographical features that are rendered in the form of map symbols via vector tiles may cause visual discontinuities, such as graphic conflicts and losses of data around the borders of tiles, which likely represent the main obstacles to exploring vector map tiles on the web. This paper proposes a tiled vector data model for geographical features in symbolized maps that considers the relationships among geographical features, symbol representations and map renderings. This model presents a method to tailor geographical features in terms of map symbols and ‘addition’ (join) operations on the following two levels: geographical features and map features. Thus, these maps can resolve the visual discontinuity problem based on the proposed model without weakening the interactivity of vector maps. The proposed model is validated by two map data sets, and the results demonstrate that the rendered (symbolized) web maps present smooth visual continuity. PMID:28475578

  2. Validity of covariance models for the analysis of geographical variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Schilling, Rene L.; Porcu, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    1. Due to the availability of large molecular data-sets, covariance models are increasingly used to describe the structure of genetic variation as an alternative to more heavily parametrised biological models. 2. We focus here on a class of parametric covariance models that received sustained...

  3. Validity of covariance models for the analysis of geographical variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Schilling, Rene L.; Porcu, Emilio

    2014-01-01

    attention lately and show that the conditions under which they are valid mathematical models have been overlooked so far. 3. We provide rigorous results for the construction of valid covariance models in this family. 4. We also outline how to construct alternative covariance models for the analysis...

  4. Key Technology Research on Open Architecture for The Sharing of Heterogeneous Geographic Analysis Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, S. S.; Wen, Y. N.; Lv, G. N.; Hu, D.

    2013-10-01

    In recent years, the increasing development of cloud computing technologies laid critical foundation for efficiently solving complicated geographic issues. However, it is still difficult to realize the cooperative operation of massive heterogeneous geographical models. Traditional cloud architecture is apt to provide centralized solution to end users, while all the required resources are often offered by large enterprises or special agencies. Thus, it's a closed framework from the perspective of resource utilization. Solving comprehensive geographic issues requires integrating multifarious heterogeneous geographical models and data. In this case, an open computing platform is in need, with which the model owners can package and deploy their models into cloud conveniently, while model users can search, access and utilize those models with cloud facility. Based on this concept, the open cloud service strategies for the sharing of heterogeneous geographic analysis models is studied in this article. The key technology: unified cloud interface strategy, sharing platform based on cloud service, and computing platform based on cloud service are discussed in detail, and related experiments are conducted for further verification.

  5. Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate air pollution in the conterminous United States using geographic and meteorological predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) remains an important public health concern, although it remains difficult to quantify accurately across large geographic areas with sufficiently high spatial resolution. Recent epidemiologic analyses have demonstrated the importance of spatially- and temporally-resolved exposure estimates, which show larger PM-mediated health effects as compared to nearest monitor or county-specific ambient concentrations. Methods We developed generalized additive mixed models that describe regional and small-scale spatial and temporal gradients (and corresponding uncertainties) in monthly mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5), inhalable (PM10), and coarse mode particle mass (PM2.5–10) for the conterminous United States (U.S.). These models expand our previously developed models for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. by virtue of their larger spatial domain, their inclusion of an additional 5 years of PM data to develop predictions through 2007, and their use of refined geographic covariates for population density and point-source PM emissions. Covariate selection and model validation were performed using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results The PM2.5 models had high predictive accuracy (CV R2=0.77 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007). While model performance remained strong, the predictive ability of models for PM10 (CV R2=0.58 for both 1988–1998 and 1999–2007) and PM2.5–10 (CV R2=0.46 and 0.52 for 1988–1998 and 1999–2007, respectively) was somewhat lower. Regional variation was found in the effects of geographic and meteorological covariates. Models generally performed well in both urban and rural areas and across seasons, though predictive performance varied somewhat by region (CV R2=0.81, 0.81, 0.83, 0.72, 0.69, 0.50, and 0.60 for the Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, Southcentral, Southwest, Northwest, and Central Plains regions, respectively, for PM2.5 from 1999–2007). Conclusions Our models provide

  6. CONSEXPO 3.0, consumer exposure and uptake models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen MP van; LBM

    2001-01-01

    The report provides a modelling approach to consumer exposure to chemicals, based on mathematical contact, exposure and uptake models. For each route of exposure, a number of exposure and uptake models are included. A general framework joins the exposure and uptake models selected by the user. By c

  7. Geographic Expansion Strategic Model in Iran: A Qualitative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Yazdani

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: For promotion of community health and improvement of the national and international position of Iran’s medical universities and HE centers, policymakers should consider the diverse factors that influence HE expansion in our developed model.

  8. A growing social network model in geographical space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonioni, Alberto; Tomassini, Marco

    2017-09-01

    In this work we propose a new model for the generation of social networks that includes their often ignored spatial aspects. The model is a growing one and links are created either taking space into account, or disregarding space and only considering the degree of target nodes. These two effects can be mixed linearly in arbitrary proportions through a parameter. We numerically show that for a given range of the combination parameter, and for given mean degree, the generated network class shares many important statistical features with those observed in actual social networks, including the spatial dependence of connections. Moreover, we show that the model provides a good qualitative fit to some measured social networks.

  9. Model Checking Geographically Distributed Interlocking Systems Using UMC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantechi, Alessandro; Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Nielsen, Michel Bøje Randahl

    2017-01-01

    The current trend of distributing computations over a network is here, as a novelty, applied to a safety critical system, namely a railway interlocking system. We show how the challenge of guaranteeing safety of the distributed application has been attacked by formally specifying and model checking...... the relevant distributed protocols. By doing that we obey the safety guidelines of the railway signalling domain, that require formal methods to support the certification of such products. We also show how formal modelling can help designing alternative distributed solutions, while maintaining adherence...

  10. Simulating Future Global Deforestation Using Geographically Explicit Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Witmer, F. [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2005-03-15

    What might the spatial distribution of forests look like in 2100? Global deforestation continues to be a significant component of human activity affecting both the terrestrial and atmospheric environments. This work models the relationship between people and forests using two approaches. Initially, a brief global scale analysis of recent historical trends is conducted. The remainder of the paper then focuses on current population densities as determinants of cumulative historical deforestation. Spatially explicit models are generated and used to generate two possible scenarios of future deforestation. The results suggest that future deforestation in tropical Africa may be considerably worse than deforestation in the Amazon region.

  11. Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Niaz Arifin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

  12. Renewal and Completion Problems in Geographical Databases in Turkey and a Proposal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Erdi

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Defence, security, public works, and many other branches of government require small-scale, current geographical databases. With this aim, small-scale geographical databases in Turkey were produced in the past and are still in use today. There are, however, problems in using the available geographical databases. These problems in forming, sharing, updating, and meeting requirements necessitate the reconfiguration of the present system. Classical approaches are preferred when updating the present geographical databases. Many errors and difficulties in recording new objects have occurred in the field, in scanning and collecting data from related institutions, and in recording and controlling nonstandard completion data. Thus it is difficult to achieve the desired high quality data with the present method. In this study, we introduce and discuss updating and completing small-scale maps of geographical bases. The Geographical Information System formation studies in Turkey are summarized, and a model is proposed for the formation, updating, and completion of systems of small-scale maps of significant databases.

  13. Assessing the Application of a Geographic Presence-Only Model for Land Suitability Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heumann, Benjamin W; Walsh, Stephen J; McDaniel, Phillip M

    2011-09-01

    Recent advances in ecological modeling have focused on novel methods for characterizing the environment that use presence-only data and machine-learning algorithms to predict the likelihood of species occurrence. These novel methods may have great potential for land suitability applications in the developing world where detailed land cover information is often unavailable or incomplete. This paper assesses the adaptation and application of the presence-only geographic species distribution model, MaxEnt, for agricultural crop suitability mapping in a rural Thailand where lowland paddy rice and upland field crops predominant. To assess this modeling approach, three independent crop presence datasets were used including a social-demographic survey of farm households, a remote sensing classification of land use/land cover, and ground control points, used for geodetic and thematic reference that vary in their geographic distribution and sample size. Disparate environmental data were integrated to characterize environmental settings across Nang Rong District, a region of approximately 1,300 sq. km in size. Results indicate that the MaxEnt model is capable of modeling crop suitability for upland and lowland crops, including rice varieties, although model results varied between datasets due to the high sensitivity of the model to the distribution of observed crop locations in geographic and environmental space. Accuracy assessments indicate that model outcomes were influenced by the sample size and the distribution of sample points in geographic and environmental space. The need for further research into accuracy assessments of presence-only models lacking true absence data is discussed. We conclude that the Maxent model can provide good estimates of crop suitability, but many areas need to be carefully scrutinized including geographic distribution of input data and assessment methods to ensure realistic modeling results.

  14. The role of geographical ecological studies in identifying diseases linked to UVB exposure and/or vitamin D.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B

    2016-01-01

    Using a variety of approaches, researchers have studied the health effects of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and vitamin D. This review compares the contributions from geographical ecological studies with those of observational studies and clinical trials. Health outcomes discussed were based on the author's knowledge and include anaphylaxis/food allergy, atopic dermatitis and eczema, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, autism, back pain, cancer, dental caries, diabetes mellitus type 1, hypertension, inflammatory bowel disease, lupus, mononucleosis, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson disease, pneumonia, rheumatoid arthritis, and sepsis. Important interactions have taken place between study types; sometimes ecological studies were the first to report an inverse correlation between solar UVB doses and health outcomes such as for cancer, leading to both observational studies and clinical trials. In other cases, ecological studies added to the knowledge base. Many ecological studies include other important risk-modifying factors, thereby minimizing the chance of reporting the wrong link. Laboratory studies of mechanisms generally support the role of vitamin D in the outcomes discussed. Indications exist that for some outcomes, UVB effects may be independent of vitamin D. This paper discusses the concept of the ecological fallacy, noting that it applies to all epidemiological studies.

  15. Comparison of average global exposure of population induced by a macro 3G network in different geographical areas in France and Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuanyuan; Varsier, Nadège; Niksic, Stevan; Kocan, Enis; Pejanovic-Djurisic, Milica; Popovic, Milica; Koprivica, Mladen; Neskovic, Aleksandar; Milinkovic, Jelena; Gati, Azeddine; Person, Christian; Wiart, Joe

    2016-09-01

    This article is the first thorough study of average population exposure to third generation network (3G)-induced electromagnetic fields (EMFs), from both uplink and downlink radio emissions in different countries, geographical areas, and for different wireless device usages. Indeed, previous publications in the framework of exposure to EMFs generally focused on individual exposure coming from either personal devices or base stations. Results, derived from device usage statistics collected in France and Serbia, show a strong heterogeneity of exposure, both in time, that is, the traffic distribution over 24 h was found highly variable, and space, that is, the exposure to 3G networks in France was found to be roughly two times higher than in Serbia. Such heterogeneity is further explained based on real data and network architecture. Among those results, authors show that, contrary to popular belief, exposure to 3G EMFs is dominated by uplink radio emissions, resulting from voice and data traffic, and average population EMF exposure differs from one geographical area to another, as well as from one country to another, due to the different cellular network architectures and variability of mobile usage. Bioelectromagnetics. 37:382-390, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Modeling Cadmium Exposures in Low- and High-Exposure Areas in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Satarug, Soisungwan; Swaddiwudhipong, Witaya; Ruangyuttikarn, Werawan; Nishijo, Muneko; Ruiz, Patricia

    2013-01-01

    Background: Previous U.S. population modeling studies have reported that urinary cadmium (Cd) excretion patterns differ with age, sex, and dietary exposure; associations between Cd exposures and health outcomes also have differed by age and sex. Therefore, it is important to test models used to estimate Cd exposures across an expanded Cd-exposure range. Objectives: We estimated relative Cd exposures from both diet and smoking in low- and high-exposure scenarios to provide data for improving r...

  17. A Theoretical Model for Selective Exposure Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roloff, Michael E.; Noland, Mark

    This study tests the basic assumptions underlying Fishbein's Model of Attitudes by correlating an individual's selective exposure to types of television programs (situation comedies, family drama, and action/adventure) with the attitudinal similarity between individual attitudes and attitudes characterized on the programs. Twenty-three college…

  18. Exposure at Default Modeling with Default Intensities

    OpenAIRE

    Witzany, Jiří

    2011-01-01

    The paper provides an overview of the Exposure at Default (EAD) definition, requirements, and estimation methods as set by the Basel II regulation. A new methodology connected to the intensity of default modeling is proposed. The numerical examples show that various estimation techniques may lead to quite different results with intensity of default based model being recommended as the most faithful with respect to a precise probabilistic definition of the EAD parameter.

  19. Geographical mapping and Bayesian spatial modeling of malaria incidence in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farid Zayeri; Masoud Salehi; Hasan Pirhosseini

    2011-01-01

    Objective:To present the geographical map of malaria and identify some of the important environmental factors of this disease in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran.Methods:We used the registered malaria data to compute the standard incidence rates (SIRs) of malaria in different areas of Sistan and Baluchistan province for a nine-year period (from 2001 to 2009). Statistical analyses consisted of two different parts: geographical mapping of malaria incidence rates, and modeling the environmental factors. The empirical Bayesian estimates of malaria SIRs were utilized for geographical mapping of malaria and a Poisson random effects model was used for assessing the effect of environmental factors on malaria SIRs.Results:In general, 64 926 new cases of malaria were registered in Sistan and Baluchistan Province from 2001 to 2009. Among them, 42 695 patients (65.8%) were male and 22 231 patients (34.2%) were female. Modeling the environmental factors showed that malaria incidence rates had positive relationship with humidity, elevation, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature, while rainfall had negative effect on malaria SIRs in this province.Conclusions:The results of the present study reveals that malaria is still a serious health problem in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Iran. Geographical map and related environmental factors of malaria can help the health policy makers to intervene in high risk areas more efficiently and allocate the resources in a proper manner.

  20. 论地理系统模拟基本模型%On the Geographic System Simulation Basic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑新奇

    2012-01-01

    The integration of geographic computing model and geo graphic information system (GIS) is the technical difficulties of ex perimental geography. Geographical systems, having rich content. complex structural and diverse functions, gave rise to the challenge of geographic system analysis and simulation. In this paper, to solve these problems, such as gcocomputation model focused ex pression, geographical analysis model focused on modeling, and blindly selected geographical simulation model, the author put for ward the concept of a geographic system simulation basic model (GSBM) after analysing the demand of geographic calculation, car tography and geographic information science. GSBM is composed of GIS-based platform, point-multi-agent (AB), surface-cellular au tomata (CA) and flow-system dynamics (SD). The framework, structure and communications of GSBM are discussed and the prin ciple of the model, the integration of key technologies and applica tion ways are analyzed deeply. This article provides a reference framework for the research and development of geographical sys tem simulation platform in future.

  1. Formal Models of Commonsense Geographic Worlds: Report on the Specialist Meeting of Research Initiative 21 (97-2)

    OpenAIRE

    Mark, David M. (David Michael), 1947-; Egenhofer, Max J.; Hornsby, Kathleen

    1997-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of the Specialist Meeting of the NCGIA Research Initiative 21 on "Formal Models of Commonsense Geographic Worlds". The meeting was held in San Marcos, TX on October 30- November 3, 1996. Research Initiative 21 is concerned with the development of formal models of commonsense geographic worlds. Discussions at the Specialist Meeting focused on the commonsense or naive geographic reasoning that people perform and whose outcome makes intuitive sense to m...

  2. Modeling thermal protection outfits for fire exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guowen

    2002-01-01

    A numerical model has been developed that successfully predicts heat transfer through thermally protective clothing materials and garments exposed to intense heat. The model considers the effect of fire exposure to the thermophysical properties of materials as well as the air layers between the clothing material and skin surface. These experiments involved characterizing the flash fire surrounding the manikin by measuring the temperature of the flame above each thermal sensor in the manikin surface. An estimation method is used to calculate the heat transfer coefficient for each thermal sensor in a 4 second exposure to an average heat flux of 2.00cal/cm2sec. A parameter estimation method was used to estimate heat induced change in fabric thermophysical properties. The skin-clothe air gap distribution of different garments was determined using three-dimensional body scanning technology. Multi-layer skin model and a burn prediction method were used to predict second and third degree burns. The integrated generalized model developed was validated using the "Pyroman" Thermal Protective Clothing Analysis System with Kevlar/PBIRTM and NomexRTMIIIA coverall garments with different configuration and exposure time. A parametric study conducted using this numerical model indicated the influencing parameters on garment thermal protective performance in terms of skin burn damage subjected to 4 second flash fire exposure. The importance of these parameters is analyzed and distinguished. These parameters includes fabric thermophysical properties, PyromanRTM chamber flash fire characteristics, garment shrinkage and fit factors, as well as garment initial and test ambient temperature. Different skin models and their influence on burn prediction were also investigated using this model.

  3. Exposure Modeling of Residential Air Exchange Rates for NEXUS Participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to cost and participant burden of personal measurements, air pollution health studies often estimate exposures using local ambient air monitors. Since outdoor levels do not necessarily reflect personal exposures, we developed the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI) to improv...

  4. A Geographic Information System approach to modeling nutrient and sediment transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, D.A. [Automated Sciences Group, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hunsaker, C.T.; Beauchamp, J.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Timmins, S.P. [Analysas Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1993-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a water quality model to quantify nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution that uses a geographic information system (GIS) to link statistical modeling of nutrient and sediment delivery with the spatial arrangement of the parameters that drive the model. The model predicts annual nutrient and sediment loading and was developed, calibrated, and tested on 12 watersheds within the Lake Ray Roberts drainage basin in north Texas. Three physiographic regions are represented by these watersheds, and model success, as measured by the accuracy of load estimates, was compared within and across these regions.

  5. A Geographic Information System approach to modeling nutrient and sediment transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, D.A. [Automated Sciences Group, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hunsaker, C.T.; Beauchamp, J.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Timmins, S.P. [Analysas Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1993-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a water quality model to quantify nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution that uses a geographic information system (GIS) to link statistical modeling of nutrient and sediment delivery with the spatial arrangement of the parameters that drive the model. The model predicts annual nutrient and sediment loading and was developed, calibrated, and tested on 12 watersheds within the Lake Ray Roberts drainage basin in north Texas. Three physiographic regions are represented by these watersheds, and model success, as measured by the accuracy of load estimates, was compared within and across these regions.

  6. Exposure Space: Integrating Exposure Data and Modeling with Toxicity Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent advances have been made in high-throughput (HTP) toxicity testing, e.g. from ToxCast, which will ultimately be combined with HTP predictions of exposure potential to support next-generation chemical safety assessment. Rapid exposure methods are essential in selecting chemi...

  7. [Analysis on the exposure level and geographic distribution trend of toxicological indicators in rural drinking water, Shandong Province, in 2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, F; Lyu, S P; Kong, F L; Yang, X T; Zhou, J Y

    2017-09-06

    Objective: To analyze the exposure level and the geographical distribution trend of toxicological indicators of rural drinking water in Shandong Province. Methods: The drawing method was used to randomly select no less than 60% villages and towns from 137 counties (cities, districts) of 17 cities in Shandong Province in 2015, and then 1-3 rural centralized water supply units were selected according to the circumstance of rural centralized water supply units in each village and town. In total, 735 villages and towns, 1 473 rural centralized water supply units were selected, and 1 473 water samples were collected. The water treatment process, water supply population and other circumstances of the rural centralized water supply units were investigated, the water quality was monitored, the content of toxicological indicators of drinking water in different areas was compared, and the trend surface isogram of excessive toxicological indicators was drawn. Results: The qualified rate of toxicological indicators in 1 473 water samples was 83.64% (n=1 232). The main toxicological indicators that affected the qualified rate of toxicological indicators of drinking water in rural areas in Shandong Province were nitrate and fluoride. The excessive rate of fluoride was 5.70% (n=84) and the exposed population was 1 736 709 (4.22%). The excessive rate of nitrate (as nitrogen) was 12.29% (n=181) and the exposed population was 1 393 612 (3.39%). The P(5)0 content of fluoride in the eastern, middle and western regions was 0.24, 0.29 and 0.59 mg/L, respective;which was higher in the western region than in the east and the middle regions (P0.05). The P(50) content of nitrate (as nitrogen) in the eastern, middle and western regions was 8.00, 7.48, and 2.00 mg/L, which was higher in the eastern and middle regions than in the west region (P0.05). The trend surface isogram of nitrate and fluoride content showed that the content of nitrate (as nitrogen) in rural drinking water in the eastern

  8. Russian and Foreign Experience of Integration of Agent-Based Models and Geographic Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantin Anatol’evich Gulin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an overview of the mechanisms of integration of agent-based models and GIS technology developed by Russian and foreign researchers. The basic framework of the article is based on critical analysis of domestic and foreign literature (monographs, scientific articles. The study is based on the application of universal scientific research methods: system approach, analysis and synthesis, classification, systematization and grouping, generalization and comparison. The article presents theoretical and methodological bases of integration of agent-based models and geographic information systems. The concept and essence of agent-based models are explained; their main advantages (compared to other modeling methods are identified. The paper characterizes the operating environment of agents as a key concept in the theory of agent-based modeling. It is shown that geographic information systems have a wide range of information resources for calculations, searching, modeling of the real world in various aspects, acting as an effective tool for displaying the agents’ operating environment and allowing to bring the model as close as possible to the real conditions. The authors also focus on a wide range of possibilities for various researches in different spatial and temporal contexts. Comparative analysis of platforms supporting the integration of agent-based models and geographic information systems has been carried out. The authors give examples of complex socio-economic models: the model of a creative city, humanitarian assistance model. In the absence of standards for research results description, the authors focus on the models’ elements such as the characteristics of the agents and their operation environment, agents’ behavior, rules of interaction between the agents and the external environment. The paper describes the possibilities and prospects of implementing these models

  9. Socioeconomic determinants of geographic disparities in campylobacteriosis risk: a comparison of global and local modeling approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weisent Jennifer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Socioeconomic factors play a complex role in determining the risk of campylobacteriosis. Understanding the spatial interplay between these factors and disease risk can guide disease control programs. Historically, Poisson and negative binomial models have been used to investigate determinants of geographic disparities in risk. Spatial regression models, which allow modeling of spatial effects, have been used to improve these modeling efforts. Geographically weighted regression (GWR takes this a step further by estimating local regression coefficients, thereby allowing estimations of associations that vary in space. These recent approaches increase our understanding of how geography influences the associations between determinants and disease. Therefore the objectives of this study were to: (i identify socioeconomic determinants of the geographic disparities of campylobacteriosis risk (ii investigate if regression coefficients for the associations between socioeconomic factors and campylobacteriosis risk demonstrate spatial variability and (iii compare the performance of four modeling approaches: negative binomial, spatial lag, global and local Poisson GWR. Methods Negative binomial, spatial lag, global and local Poisson GWR modeling techniques were used to investigate associations between socioeconomic factors and geographic disparities in campylobacteriosis risk. The best fitting models were identified and compared. Results Two competing four variable models (Models 1 & 2 were identified. Significant variables included race, unemployment rate, education attainment, urbanicity, and divorce rate. Local Poisson GWR had the best fit and showed evidence of spatially varying regression coefficients. Conclusions The international significance of this work is that it highlights the inadequacy of global regression strategies that estimate one parameter per independent variable, and therefore mask the true relationships between

  10. Modelling the Geographical Origin of Rice Cultivation in Asia Using the Rice Archaeological Database.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Silva

    Full Text Available We have compiled an extensive database of archaeological evidence for rice across Asia, including 400 sites from mainland East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. This dataset is used to compare several models for the geographical origins of rice cultivation and infer the most likely region(s for its origins and subsequent outward diffusion. The approach is based on regression modelling wherein goodness of fit is obtained from power law quantile regressions of the archaeologically inferred age versus a least-cost distance from the putative origin(s. The Fast Marching method is used to estimate the least-cost distances based on simple geographical features. The origin region that best fits the archaeobotanical data is also compared to other hypothetical geographical origins derived from the literature, including from genetics, archaeology and historical linguistics. The model that best fits all available archaeological evidence is a dual origin model with two centres for the cultivation and dispersal of rice focused on the Middle Yangtze and the Lower Yangtze valleys.

  11. Hospital distribution in a metropolitan city: assessment by a geographical information system grid modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Soo Lee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Grid models were used to assess urban hospital distribution in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. A geographical information system (GIS based analytical model was developed and applied to assess the situation in a metropolitan area with a population exceeding 10 million. Secondary data for this analysis were obtained from multiple sources: the Korean Statistical Information Service, the Korean Hospital Association and the Statistical Geographical Information System. A grid of cells measuring 1 × 1 km was superimposed on the city map and a set of variables related to population, economy, mobility and housing were identified and measured for each cell. Socio-demographic variables were included to reflect the characteristics of each area. Analytical models were then developed using GIS software with the number of hospitals as the dependent variable. Applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models, three factors (highway and major arterial road areas; number of subway entrances; and row house areas were statistically significant in explaining the variance of hospital distribution for each cell. The overall results show that GIS is a useful tool for analysing and understanding location strategies. This approach appears a useful source of information for decision-makers concerned with the distribution of hospitals and other health care centres in a city.

  12. Hospital distribution in a metropolitan city: assessment by a geographic information system grid modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kwang-Soo; Moon, Kyeong-Jun

    2014-05-01

    Grid models were used to assess urban hospital distribution in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. A geographical information system (GIS) based analytical model was developed and applied to assess the situation in a metropolitan area with a population exceeding 10 million. Secondary data for this analysis were obtained from multiple sources: the Korean Statistical Information Service, the Korean Hospital Association and the Statistical Geographical Information System. A grid of cells measuring 1 × 1 km was superimposed on the city map and a set of variables related to population, economy, mobility and housing were identified and measured for each cell. Socio-demographic variables were included to reflect the characteristics of each area. Analytical models were then developed using GIS software with the number of hospitals as the dependent variable. Applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models, three factors (highway and major arterial road areas; number of subway entrances; and row house areas) were statistically significant in explaining the variance of hospital distribution for each cell. The overall results show that GIS is a useful tool for analysing and understanding location strategies. This approach appears a useful source of information for decision-makers concerned with the distribution of hospitals and other health care centres in a city.

  13. Extending the formal model of a spatial data infrastructure to include volunteered geographical information

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cooper, Antony K

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available an aggregator of VGI, such as Ushahidi, and the provider of the infrastructure for collecting VGI, such as OpenStreetMap. 3) Broker: A stakeholder who brings End Users and Providers together and assists in the negotiation of contracts between them... model of a spatial data infrastructure to include volunteered geographical information Antony K Cooper*, Petr Rapant?, Jan Hjelmager?, Dominique Laurent?, Adam Iwaniak#, Serena Coetzee$, Harold Moellering? and Ulrich D?ren? *Logistics...

  14. Operation of the computer model for microenvironment atomic oxygen exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourassa, R. J.; Gillis, J. R.; Gruenbaum, P. E.

    1995-01-01

    A computer model for microenvironment atomic oxygen exposure has been developed to extend atomic oxygen modeling capability to include shadowing and reflections. The model uses average exposure conditions established by the direct exposure model and extends the application of these conditions to treat surfaces of arbitrary shape and orientation.

  15. Deficiencies in the simulation of the geographic distribution of climate types by global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xianliang; Yan, Xiaodong

    2016-05-01

    The performances of General Circulation Models (GCMs) when checked with conventional methods (i.e. correlation, bias, root-mean-square error) can only be evaluated for each variable individually. The geographic distribution of climate type in GCM simulations, which reflects the spatial attributes of models and is related closely to the terrestrial biosphere, has not yet been evaluated. Thus, whether the geographic distribution of climate types was well simulated by GCMs was evaluated in this study for nine GCMs. The results showed that large areas of climate zones classified by the GCMs were allocated incorrectly when compared to the basic climate zones established by observed data. The percentages of wrong areas covered approximately 30-50 % of the total land area for most models. In addition, the temporal shift in the distribution of climate zones according to the GCMs was found to be inaccurate. Not only were the locations of shifts poorly simulated, but also the areas of shift in climate zones. Overall, the geographic distribution of climate types was not simulated well by the GCMs, nor was the temporal shift in the distribution of climate zones. Thus, a new method on how to evaluate the simulated distribution of climate types for GCMs was provided in this study.

  16. Geographic distribution model for Mabuya agmosticha (Squamata: Scincidae in northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raul F.D. Sales

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The Neotropical lizard Mabuya agmosticha Rodrigues, 2000 is a habitat-specialist of thorny bromeliads in rocky outcrops of northeastern Brazil. Its distribution in the Caatinga Domain is most likely relictual. In recent years, new surveys conducted in northeastern Brazil have revealed new records of the species in the Caatinga and also in the Atlantic Forest Domain. In this study, we add four new records for M. agmosticha, extending its known geographic range in the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba. In addition, we investigated the potential geographical distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling (ENM, which combines the available occurrence records with environmental variables. Our model revealed a continuous range of areas with suitable climatic conditions for the species, from the state of Rio Grande do Norte to the northeast portion of the state of Bahia, plus some relictual distribution spots, mainly in the states of Bahia, Pernambuco, Ceará and western Rio Grande do Norte. Based on the model, we suggest that the distribution of M. agmosticha is continuous on a large geographic scale. On a smaller spatial scale, however, it is clear that its distribution is clumped, reflecting its specialist habits associated with rupicolous bromeliads.

  17. Analysis of matched geographical areas to study potential links between environmental exposure to oil refineries and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramis Rebeca

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emissions from refineries include a wide range of substances, such as chrome, lead, nickel, zinc, arsenic, cadmium, benzene, dioxins and furans, all of which are recognized by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC as carcinogens. Various studies have shown an association between non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL and residence in the vicinity of industrial areas; however, evidence of specific association between refineries and residence in the vicinity has been suggested but not yet established. The aim of this study is to investigate potential links between environmental exposure to emissions from refineries and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in Spain. The spatial distribution of NHL in Spain has an unusual pattern with regions some showing higher risk than others. Methods We designed an analysis of matched geographical areas to examine non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality in the vicinity of the 10 refineries sited in Spain over the period 1997-2006. Population exposure to refineries was estimated on the basis of distance from town of residence to the facility in a 10 km buffer. We defined 10 km radius areas to perform the matching, accounting for population density, level of industrialization and socio-demographic factors of the area using principal components analysis. For the matched towns we evaluated the risk of NHL mortality associated with residence in the vicinity of the refineries and with different regions using mixed Poisson models. Then we study the residuals to assess a possible risk trend with distance. Results Relative risks (RRs associated with exposure showed similar values for women and for men, 1.09 (0.97-1.24 and 1.12 (0.99-1.27. RRs for two regions were statistically significant: Canary Islands showed an excess of risk of 1.35 (1.05-1.72 for women and 1.50 (1.18-1.92 for men, whilst Galicia showed an excess of risk of 1.35 (1.04-1.75 for men, but not significant excess for women. Conclusions The results

  18. EXPOSURE ANALYSIS MODELING SYSTEM (EXAMS): USER MANUAL AND SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Exposure Analysis Modeling System, first published in 1982 (EPA-600/3-82-023), provides interactive computer software for formulating aquatic ecosystem models and rapidly evaluating the fate, transport, and exposure concentrations of synthetic organic chemicals - pesticides, ...

  19. Determinants of Dermal Exposure Relevant for Exposure Modelling in Regulatory Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, J.; Brouwer, D.H.; Gijsbers, J.H.J.; Links, I.H.M.; Warren, N.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment of chemicals requires assessment of the exposure levels of workers. In the absence of adequate specific measured data, models are often used to estimate exposure levels. For dermal exposure only a few models exist, which are not validated externally. In the scope of a large European

  20. The Distance-Decay Function of Geographical Gravity Model: Power Law or Exponential Law?

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Yanguang

    2015-01-01

    The distance-decay function of the geographical gravity model is originally an inverse power law, which suggests a scaling process in spatial interaction. However, the distance exponent of the model cannot be explained with the ideas from Euclidean geometry. This results in what is called dimension dilemma. In particular, the gravity model based on power law could not be derived from general principles by traditional ways. Consequently, a negative exponential function substituted for the inverse power function to serve for a distance-decay function for the gravity model. However, the exponential-based gravity model goes against the first law of geography. This paper is devoted to solve these kinds of problems by mathematical reasoning and empirical analysis. First, it can be proved that the distance exponent of the gravity model is essentially a fractal dimension. Thus the dimensional dilemma of the power-based gravity model can be resolved using the concepts from fractal geometry. Second, the exponential fun...

  1. Remote sensing and geographic information systems in the spatial temporal dynamics modeling of infectious diseases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GONG; Peng

    2006-01-01

    Similar to species immigration or exotic species invasion, infectious disease transmission is strengthened due to the globalization of human activities. Using schistosomiasis as an example, we propose a conceptual model simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. We base the model on the knowledge of the interrelationship among the source, media, and the hosts of the disease. With the endemics data of schistosomiasis in Xichang, China, we demonstrate that the conceptual model is feasible; we introduce how remote sensing and geographic information systems techniques can be used in support of spatio-temporal modeling; we compare the different effects caused to the entire population when selecting different groups of people for schistosomiasis control. Our work illustrates the importance of such a modeling tool in supporting spatial decisions. Our modeling method can be directly applied to such infectious diseases as the plague, lyme disease, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The application of remote sensing and geographic information systems can shed light on the modeling of other infectious disease and invasive species studies.

  2. Modeling Impaired Hippocampal Neurogenesis after Radiation Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacao, Eliedonna; Cucinotta, Francis A

    2016-03-01

    Radiation impairment of neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus is one of several factors associated with cognitive detriments after treatment of brain cancers in children and adults with radiation therapy. Mouse models have been used to study radiation-induced changes in neurogenesis, however the models are limited in the number of doses, dose fractions, age and time after exposure conditions that have been studied. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel predictive mathematical model of radiation-induced changes to neurogenesis using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to represent the time, age and dose-dependent changes to several cell populations participating in neurogenesis as reported in mouse experiments exposed to low-LET radiation. We considered four compartments to model hippocampal neurogenesis and, consequently, the effects of radiation treatment in altering neurogenesis: (1) neural stem cells (NSCs), (2) neuronal progenitor cells or neuroblasts (NB), (3) immature neurons (ImN) and (4) glioblasts (GB). Because neurogenesis is decreasing with increasing mouse age, a description of the age-related dynamics of hippocampal neurogenesis is considered in the model, which is shown to be an important factor in comparisons to experimental data. A key feature of the model is the description of negative feedback regulation on early and late neuronal proliferation after radiation exposure. The model is augmented with parametric descriptions of the dose and time after irradiation dependences of activation of microglial cells and a possible shift of NSC proliferation from neurogenesis to gliogenesis reported at higher doses (∼10 Gy). Predictions for dose-fractionation regimes and for different mouse ages, and prospects for future work are then discussed.

  3. Estimation of exposure to toxic releases using spatial interaction modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conley Jamison F

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI data are frequently used to estimate a community's exposure to pollution. However, this estimation process often uses underdeveloped geographic theory. Spatial interaction modeling provides a more realistic approach to this estimation process. This paper uses four sets of data: lung cancer age-adjusted mortality rates from the years 1990 through 2006 inclusive from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER database, TRI releases of carcinogens from 1987 to 1996, covariates associated with lung cancer, and the EPA's Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI model. Results The impact of the volume of carcinogenic TRI releases on each county's lung cancer mortality rates was calculated using six spatial interaction functions (containment, buffer, power decay, exponential decay, quadratic decay, and RSEI estimates and evaluated with four multivariate regression methods (linear, generalized linear, spatial lag, and spatial error. Akaike Information Criterion values and P values of spatial interaction terms were computed. The impacts calculated from the interaction models were also mapped. Buffer and quadratic interaction functions had the lowest AIC values (22298 and 22525 respectively, although the gains from including the spatial interaction terms were diminished with spatial error and spatial lag regression. Conclusions The use of different methods for estimating the spatial risk posed by pollution from TRI sites can give different results about the impact of those sites on health outcomes. The most reliable estimates did not always come from the most complex methods.

  4. Geographical variation of sporadic Legionnaires' disease analysed in a grid model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudbeck, M.; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Sonne, I.B.;

    2010-01-01

    clusters. Four cells had excess incidence in all three time periods. The analysis in 25 different grid positions indicated a low risk of overlooking cells with excess incidence in a random grid. The coefficient of variation ranged from 0.08 to 0.11 independent of the threshold. By application of a random......The aim was to analyse variation in incidence of sporadic Legionnaires' disease in a geographical information system in three time periods (1990-2005) by the application of a grid model and to assess the model's validity by analysing variation according to grid position. Coordinates...

  5. A process: development of a model multiculturalism curriculum designed for mobility across geographic borders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frels, L; Scott, J; Schramm, M A

    1997-08-01

    The Council on Accreditation Project, Nurse Anesthesia Educational Requirements and Mobility Between North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Countries, has as one of its outcomes the development of a model curriculum that would minimize educational barriers for mobility of nurse anesthetists across NAFTA geographical borders with a focus on the blending of professional and technical expertise with issues of human diversity and/or cultural differences. The overall long-term outcome of the project is to test a process. The manuscript discusses the process used in year III of the project to integrate cultural concepts into a nurse anesthesia model curriculum.

  6. Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

    2017-05-04

    Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

  7. A Comparison of Geographic Information Systems, Complex Networks, and Other Models for Analyzing Transportation Network Topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, Natalia (Technical Monitor); Kuby, Michael; Tierney, Sean; Roberts, Tyler; Upchurch, Christopher

    2005-01-01

    This report reviews six classes of models that are used for studying transportation network topologies. The report is motivated by two main questions. First, what can the "new science" of complex networks (scale-free, small-world networks) contribute to our understanding of transport network structure, compared to more traditional methods? Second, how can geographic information systems (GIS) contribute to studying transport networks? The report defines terms that can be used to classify different kinds of models by their function, composition, mechanism, spatial and temporal dimensions, certainty, linearity, and resolution. Six broad classes of models for analyzing transport network topologies are then explored: GIS; static graph theory; complex networks; mathematical programming; simulation; and agent-based modeling. Each class of models is defined and classified according to the attributes introduced earlier. The paper identifies some typical types of research questions about network structure that have been addressed by each class of model in the literature.

  8. Mechanistic modeling of the interrelationships between indoor/outdoor air quality and human exposure in a GIS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isukapalli, S.S.; Purushothaman, V.; Georgopoulos, P.G.

    1999-07-01

    Evaluation of human exposure to atmospheric contaminants such as ozone and particulate matter (PM) is often based on measured data from fixed ambient (outdoors) Air Monitoring Stations. This results in an artificial characterization of indoor exposures, as concentrations and physicochemical attributes of indoor pollutants vary significantly and are different from corresponding outdoor values. A mechanistically-based modeling approach is presented here that aims to improve estimates for the outdoor/indoor relationships of photochemical pollutants and of associated fine particles and, subsequently, of human exposure assessments. New approaches for refining the spatial, temporal, and indoor/outdoor patterns of gas phase photochemical contaminants and PM are currently being developed and tested. These approaches are combined with information from either ambient monitoring networks or from ambient air quality models that consider aerosol physics and chemistry coupled with gas phase photochemistry (e.g. UAM-AERO). This process utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Relational Database (RD) methods, to facilitate detailed exposure scenario construction (involving e.g. the geographic location of an individual considered in time) and to aid in the estimation of population exposure over selected geographic areas. The combination of monitor data or air quality modeling with microenvironmental modeling in a GIS framework can potentially provide a useful platform for more accurate assessments of human exposure to co-occurring gas and particulate phase air pollutants.

  9. Ecological Niche Modeling for the Prediction of the Geographic Distribution of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalghaf, Bilel; Chlif, Sadok; Mayala, Benjamin; Ghawar, Wissem; Bettaieb, Jihène; Harrabi, Myriam; Benie, Goze Bertin; Michael, Edwin; Salah, Afif Ben

    2016-04-01

    Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a very complex disease involving multiple factors that limit its emergence and spatial distribution. Prediction of cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in Tunisia remains difficult because most of the epidemiological tools used so far are descriptive in nature and mainly focus on a time dimension. The purpose of this work is to predict the potential geographic distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania major in Tunisia using Grinnellian ecological niche modeling. We attempted to assess the importance of environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of P. papatasi and cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Vectors were trapped in central Tunisia during the transmission season using CDC light traps (John W. Hock Co., Gainesville, FL). A global positioning system was used to record the geographical coordinates of vector occurrence points and households tested positive for cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. major. Nine environmental layers were used as predictor variables to model the P. papatasi geographical distribution and five variables were used to model the L. major potential distribution. Ecological niche modeling was used to relate known species' occurrence points to values of environmental factors for these same points to predict the presence of the species in unsampled regions based on the value of the predictor variables. Rainfall and temperature contributed the most as predictors for sand flies and human case distributions. Ecological niche modeling anticipated the current distribution of P. papatasi with the highest suitability for species occurrence in the central and southeastern part of Tunisian. Furthermore, our study demonstrated that governorates of Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk.

  10. Handbook on advances in remote sensing and geographic information systems paradigms and applications in forest landscape modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Favorskaya, Margarita N

    2017-01-01

    This book presents the latest advances in remote-sensing and geographic information systems and applications. It is divided into four parts, focusing on Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Optical Measurements of Forests; Individual Tree Modelling; Landscape Scene Modelling; and Forest Eco-system Modelling. Given the scope of its coverage, the book offers a valuable resource for students, researchers, practitioners, and educators interested in remote sensing and geographic information systems and applications.

  11. AirPEx: Air Pollution Exposure Model

    OpenAIRE

    Freijer JI; Bloemen HJTh; de Loos S; Marra M; Rombout PJA; Steentjes GM; Veen MP van; LBO

    1997-01-01

    Analysis of inhalatory exposure to air pollution is an important area of investigation when assessing the risks of air pollution for human health. Inhalatory exposure research focuses on the exposure of humans to air pollutants and the entry of these pollutants into the human respiratory tract. The principal grounds for studying the inhalatory exposure of humans to air pollutants are formed by the need for realistic exposure/dose estimates to evaluate the health effects of these pollutants. T...

  12. Food security and vulnerability modeling of East Java Province based on Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression Semiparametric (GWOLRS model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.W. Surya Wardhani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of food security based on the characteristics of the area will be affected by the geographical location which means that geographical location will affect the region’s potential. Therefore, we need a method of statistical modeling that takes into account the geographical location or the location factor observations. In this case, the research variables could be global means that the location affects the response variables significantly; when some of the predictor variables are global and the other variables are local, then Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression Semiparametric (GWOLRS could be used to analyze the data. The data used is the resilience and food insecurity data in 2011 in East Java Province. The result showed that three predictor variables that influenced by the location are the percentage of poor (%, rice production per district (tons and life expectancy (%. Those three predictor variables are local because they have significant influence in some districts/cities but had no significant effect in other districts/cities, while other two variables that are clean water and good quality road length (km are assumed global because it is not a significant factor for the whole districts/towns in East Java .

  13. WEMo (Wave Exposure Model): Formulation, Procedures and Validation

    OpenAIRE

    Malhotra, Amit; Mark S. Fonseca

    2007-01-01

    This report describes the working of National Centers for Coastal Ocean Service (NCCOS) Wave Exposure Model (WEMo) capable of predicting the exposure of a site in estuarine and closed water to local wind generated waves. WEMo works in two different modes: the Representative Wave Energy (RWE) mode calculates the exposure using physical parameters like wave energy and wave height, while the Relative Exposure Index (REI) empirically calculates exposure as a unitless index. Detailed working of th...

  14. New spatial clustering-based models for optimal urban facility location considering geographical obstacles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javadi, Maryam; Shahrabi, Jamal

    2014-03-01

    The problems of facility location and the allocation of demand points to facilities are crucial research issues in spatial data analysis and urban planning. It is very important for an organization or governments to best locate its resources and facilities and efficiently manage resources to ensure that all demand points are covered and all the needs are met. Most of the recent studies, which focused on solving facility location problems by performing spatial clustering, have used the Euclidean distance between two points as the dissimilarity function. Natural obstacles, such as mountains and rivers, can have drastic impacts on the distance that needs to be traveled between two geographical locations. While calculating the distance between various supply chain entities (including facilities and demand points), it is necessary to take such obstacles into account to obtain better and more realistic results regarding location-allocation. In this article, new models were presented for location of urban facilities while considering geographical obstacles at the same time. In these models, three new distance functions were proposed. The first function was based on the analysis of shortest path in linear network, which was called SPD function. The other two functions, namely PD and P2D, were based on the algorithms that deal with robot geometry and route-based robot navigation in the presence of obstacles. The models were implemented in ArcGIS Desktop 9.2 software using the visual basic programming language. These models were evaluated using synthetic and real data sets. The overall performance was evaluated based on the sum of distance from demand points to their corresponding facilities. Because of the distance between the demand points and facilities becoming more realistic in the proposed functions, results indicated desired quality of the proposed models in terms of quality of allocating points to centers and logistic cost. Obtained results show promising

  15. A geographical information system-based analysis of cancer mortality and population exposure to coal mining activities in West Virginia, United States of America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendryx, Michael; Fedorko, Evan; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Cancer incidence and mortality rates are high in West Virginia compared to the rest of the United States of America. Previous research has suggested that exposure to activities of the coal mining industry may contribute to elevated cancer mortality, although exposure measures have been limited. This study tests alternative specifications of exposure to mining activity to determine whether a measure based on location of mines, processing plants, coal slurry impoundments and underground slurry injection sites relative to population levels is superior to a previously-reported measure of exposure based on tons mined at the county level, in the prediction of age-adjusted cancer mortality rates. To this end, we utilize two geographical information system (GIS) techniques--exploratory spatial data analysis and inverse distance mapping--to construct new statistical analyses. Total, respiratory and "other" age-adjusted cancer mortality rates in West Virginia were found to be more highly associated with the GIS-exposure measure than the tonnage measure, before and after statistical control for smoking rates. The superior performance of the GIS measure, based on where people in the state live relative to mining activity, suggests that activities of the industry contribute to cancer mortality. Further confirmation of observed phenomena is necessary with person-level studies, but the results add to the body of evidence that coal mining poses environmental risks to population health in West Virginia.

  16. A geographical information system-based analysis of cancer mortality and population exposure to coal mining activities in West Virginia, United States of America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Hendryx

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Cancer incidence and mortality rates are high in West Virginia compared to the rest of the United States of America. Previous research has suggested that exposure to activities of the coal mining industry may contribute to elevated cancer mortality, although exposure measures have been limited. This study tests alternative specifications of exposure to mining activity to determine whether a measure based on location of mines, processing plants, coal slurry impoundments and underground slurry injection sites relative to population levels is superior to a previously-reported measure of exposure based on tons mined at the county level, in the prediction of age-adjusted cancer mortality rates. To this end, we utilize two geographical information system (GIS techniques – exploratory spatial data analysis and inverse distance mapping – to construct new statistical analyses. Total, respiratory and “other” age-adjusted cancer mortality rates in West Virginia were found to be more highly associated with the GIS-exposure measure than the tonnage measure, before and after statistical control for smoking rates. The superior performance of the GIS measure, based on where people in the state live relative to mining activity, suggests that activities of the industry contribute to cancer mortality. Further confirmation of observed phenomena is necessary with person-level studies, but the results add to the body of evidence that coal mining poses environmental risks to population health in West Virginia.

  17. Modeling repeated measurement data for occupational exposure assessment and epidemiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peretz, Chava

    2004-01-01

    Repeated measurements designs, occur frequently in the assessment of exposure to toxic chemicals. This thesis deals with the possibilities of using mixed effects models for occupational exposure assessment and in the analysis of exposure response relationships. The model enables simultaneous estima

  18. Integrating a geographic information system, a scientific visualization system and an orographic precipitation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, L.; Knapp, L.

    1996-01-01

    Investigating natural, potential, and man-induced impacts on hydrological systems commonly requires complex modelling with overlapping data requirements, and massive amounts of one- to four-dimensional data at multiple scales and formats. Given the complexity of most hydrological studies, the requisite software infrastructure must incorporate many components including simulation modelling, spatial analysis and flexible, intuitive displays. There is a general requirement for a set of capabilities to support scientific analysis which, at this time, can only come from an integration of several software components. Integration of geographic information systems (GISs) and scientific visualization systems (SVSs) is a powerful technique for developing and analysing complex models. This paper describes the integration of an orographic precipitation model, a GIS and a SVS. The combination of these individual components provides a robust infrastructure which allows the scientist to work with the full dimensionality of the data and to examine the data in a more intuitive manner.

  19. Geographically weighted regression for modelling the accessibility to the public hospital network in Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Marcela Martínez Bascuñán; Carolina Rojas Quezada

    2016-01-01

    Accessibility models in transport geography based on geographic information systems have proven to be an effective method in determining spatial inequalities associated with public health. This work aims to model the spatial accessibility from populated areas within the Concepción metropolitan area (CMA), the second largest city in Chile. The city’s public hospital network is taken into consideration with special reference to socio-regional inequalities. The use of geographically weighted reg...

  20. a Version-Similarity Based Trust Degree Computation Model for Crowdsourcing Geographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoguang; Zhao, Yijiang

    2016-06-01

    Quality evaluation and control has become the main concern of VGI. In this paper, trust is used as a proxy of VGI quality, a version-similarity based trust degree computation model for crowdsourcing geographic data is presented. This model is based on the assumption that the quality of VGI objects mainly determined by the professional skill and integrity (called reputation in this paper), and the reputation of the contributor is movable. The contributor's reputation is calculated using the similarity degree among the multi-versions for the same entity state. The trust degree of VGI object is determined by the trust degree of its previous version, the reputation of the last contributor and the modification proportion. In order to verify this presented model, a prototype system for computing the trust degree of VGI objects is developed by programming with Visual C# 2010. The historical data of Berlin of OpenStreetMap (OSM) are employed for experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that the quality of crowdsourcing geographic data is highly positive correlation with its trustworthiness. As the evaluation is based on version-similarity, not based on the direct subjective evaluation among users, the evaluation result is objective. Furthermore, as the movability property of the contributors' reputation is used in this presented method, our method has a higher assessment coverage than the existing methods.

  1. Modeling the adoption of innovations in the presence of geographic and media influences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jameson L Toole

    Full Text Available While there is a large body of work examining the effects of social network structure on innovation adoption, models to date have lacked considerations of real geography or mass media. In this article, we show these features are crucial to making more accurate predictions of a social contagion and technology adoption at a city-to-city scale. Using data from the adoption of the popular micro-blogging platform, Twitter, we present a model of adoption on a network that places friendships in real geographic space and exposes individuals to mass media influence. We show that homophily both among individuals with similar propensities to adopt a technology and geographic location is critical to reproducing features of real spatiotemporal adoption. Furthermore, we estimate that mass media was responsible for increasing Twitter's user base two to four fold. To reflect this strength, we extend traditional contagion models to include an endogenous mass media agent that responds to those adopting an innovation as well as influencing agents to adopt themselves.

  2. A PROBABILISTIC MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING POPULATION EXPOSURES TO BENZENE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is modifying their probabilistic Stochastic Human Exposure Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model to assess aggregate exposures to air toxics. Air toxics include urban Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPS) such as benzene from mobile sources, part...

  3. LOCATION MODELS FOR MAIN INDUSTRIES AT MACRO-GEOGRAPHICAL LEVEL USING OPEN GEOSPATIAL DATA AND SOFTWARE: CASE OF ROMANIAN COUNTIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornel GHITA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper reveals the mathematical models to explain the location of industries within macro-geographical areas (Romania’s counties, by means of GIS (Geographical Information System metrics. While the explained variable (output was a composite indicator equally weighting employment and turnover quotients computed from statistical data, the explaining variables (inputs were a set of GIS metrics, computed on geospatial open data, using open GIS software. The preferred method for modelling was the multiple linear regression; different nonlinear functions were tested to provide the best fit. The GIS metrics are an alternative to statistical data, having the advantage of being procured and updated easier by the automatic import of the GIS database. For all industries, the study delivered relevant models. This study is part of a spatial decision support system (SDSS for the location of enterprises, including both a macro-geographical layer and a micro-geographical layer of factors. This paper’s results can be used independently (the micro-geographical layer was addressed by a previous study. The macro-geographical and the micro-geographical layer could share the 100% weight according to the desired level of location. For example, a governmental organization could grant all weight to the macro layer, while an enterprise could weight more the micro layer.

  4. Regression modeling of streamflow, baseflow, and runoff using geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yuanhong; Day, Rick L

    2009-02-01

    Regression models for predicting total streamflow (TSF), baseflow (TBF), and storm runoff (TRO) are needed for water resource planning and management. This study used 54 streams with >20 years of streamflow gaging station records during the period October 1971 to September 2001 in Pennsylvania and partitioned TSF into TBF and TRO. TBF was considered a surrogate of groundwater recharge for basins. Regression models for predicting basin-wide TSF, TBF, and TRO were developed under three scenarios that varied in regression variables used for model development. Regression variables representing basin geomorphological, geological, soil, and climatic characteristics were estimated using geographic information systems. All regression models for TSF, TBF, and TRO had R(2) values >0.94 and reasonable prediction errors. The two best TSF models developed under scenarios 1 and 2 had similar absolute prediction errors. The same was true for the two best TBF models. Therefore, any one of the two best TSF and TBF models could be used for respective flow prediction depending on variable availability. The TRO model developed under scenario 1 had smaller absolute prediction errors than that developed under scenario 2. Simplified Area-alone models developed under scenario 3 might be used when variables for using best models are not available, but had lower R(2) values and higher or more variable prediction errors than the best models.

  5. AirPEx: Air Pollution Exposure Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freijer JI; Bloemen HJTh; Loos S de; Marra M; Rombout PJA; Steentjes GM; Veen MP van; LBO

    1997-01-01

    Analysis of inhalatory exposure to air pollution is an important area of investigation when assessing the risks of air pollution for human health. Inhalatory exposure research focuses on the exposure of humans to air pollutants and the entry of these pollutants into the human respiratory tract. The

  6. Parish classification or dwelling coordinate for exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology - A comparative study using Geographical Information System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tondel, Martin [Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Sahlgrenska School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (Sweden)], E-mail: Martin.Tondel@amm.gu.se; Lindgren, Peter [Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Sahlgrenska School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (Sweden); Garvin, Peter [Division of Social Medicine and Public Health Science, Department of Health and Society, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linkoeping University, Linkoeping (Sweden); Persson, Bodil [Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, University Hospital, Linkoeping (Sweden)

    2008-11-01

    Background:: Two previous epidemiological studies on the incidence of total malignancies in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident have shown consistently increased risks. The first study used an analogue map on {sup 137}Cs from 1986 to classify individuals in terms of the parish they lived in. In the second study, dwelling coordinates were matched to a digital map from the year 2000 to assess the individual exposure. To establish the accuracy of the exposure assessment using the larger unit of parish, instead of coordinates, we decided to compare the methods. Methods:: On the analogue map eleven isolines on the deposition of {sup 137}Cs (kBq/m{sup 2}) were used to classify all individuals in each of the 450 parishes. Using the digital map, by contrast, each dwelling with its inhabitants could be matched to {sup 137}Cs deposition at a coordinate level. A population-weighted average of {sup 137}Cs deposition was calculated for each parish. In total, 1,126,960 individuals and 450 parishes were included and analysed into six different exposure categories. Results:: Using the new parish exposure index, 111 out of the 450 parishes were reclassified as a result of the increased resolution of the digital map (86 parishes) or unequal distribution of the population compared with the deposition (25 parishes). Seventy-five per cent of the parishes remained in the same exposure category as on the analogue map. Conclusion:: Using dwelling coordinates for exposure assessment may not always be superior to parish classification. Nor is it always a cost-effective way of estimating the exposure, especially if the exposure in a parish is relatively homogenous or if parishes can be merged into broader categories with little intra-parish difference.

  7. Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

    2017-07-01

    Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

  8. Exposure-response modeling methods and practical implementation

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Jixian

    2015-01-01

    Discover the Latest Statistical Approaches for Modeling Exposure-Response RelationshipsWritten by an applied statistician with extensive practical experience in drug development, Exposure-Response Modeling: Methods and Practical Implementation explores a wide range of topics in exposure-response modeling, from traditional pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modeling to other areas in drug development and beyond. It incorporates numerous examples and software programs for implementing novel methods.The book describes using measurement

  9. Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Petrovic

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed.

  10. Integration of geographic information systems and logistic multiple regression for aquatic macrophyte modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narumalani, S. [Nebraska Univ., Lincoln, NE (United States). Dept. of Geography; Jensen, J.R.; Althausen, J.D.; Burkhalter, S. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Geography; Mackey, H.E. Jr. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Since aquatic macrophytes have an important influence on the physical and chemical processes of an ecosystem while simultaneously affecting human activity, it is imperative that they be inventoried and managed wisely. However, mapping wetlands can be a major challenge because they are found in diverse geographic areas ranging from small tributary streams, to shrub or scrub and marsh communities, to open water lacustrian environments. In addition, the type and spatial distribution of wetlands can change dramatically from season to season, especially when nonpersistent species are present. This research, focuses on developing a model for predicting the future growth and distribution of aquatic macrophytes. This model will use a geographic information system (GIS) to analyze some of the biophysical variables that affect aquatic macrophyte growth and distribution. The data will provide scientists information on the future spatial growth and distribution of aquatic macrophytes. This study focuses on the Savannah River Site Par Pond (1,000 ha) and L Lake (400 ha) these are two cooling ponds that have received thermal effluent from nuclear reactor operations. Par Pond was constructed in 1958, and natural invasion of wetland has occurred over its 35-year history, with much of the shoreline having developed extensive beds of persistent and non-persistent aquatic macrophytes.

  11. Advantages of geographically weighted regression for modeling benthic substrate in two Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, Kenneth R.; Strager, Michael P.; Welsh, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    Stream habitat assessments are commonplace in fish management, and often involve nonspatial analysis methods for quantifying or predicting habitat, such as ordinary least squares regression (OLS). Spatial relationships, however, often exist among stream habitat variables. For example, water depth, water velocity, and benthic substrate sizes within streams are often spatially correlated and may exhibit spatial nonstationarity or inconsistency in geographic space. Thus, analysis methods should address spatial relationships within habitat datasets. In this study, OLS and a recently developed method, geographically weighted regression (GWR), were used to model benthic substrate from water depth and water velocity data at two stream sites within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. For data collection, each site was represented by a grid of 0.1 m2 cells, where actual values of water depth, water velocity, and benthic substrate class were measured for each cell. Accuracies of regressed substrate class data by OLS and GWR methods were calculated by comparing maps, parameter estimates, and determination coefficient r 2. For analysis of data from both sites, Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for sample size indicated the best approximating model for the data resulted from GWR and not from OLS. Adjusted r 2 values also supported GWR as a better approach than OLS for prediction of substrate. This study supports GWR (a spatial analysis approach) over nonspatial OLS methods for prediction of habitat for stream habitat assessments.

  12. Geographical Information System Model for Potential Mines Data Management Presentation in Kabupaten Gorontalo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roviana, D.; Tajuddin, A.; Edi, S.

    2017-03-01

    Mining potential in Indonesian is very abundant, ranging from Sabang to Marauke. Kabupaten Gorontalo is one of many places in Indonesia that have different types of minerals and natural resources that can be found in every district. The abundant of mining potential must be balanced with good management and ease of getting information by investors. The current issue is, (1) ways of presenting data/information about potential mines area is still manually (the maps that already capture from satellite image, then printed and attached to information board in the office) it caused the difficulties of getting information; (2) the high cost of maps printing; (3) the difficulties of regency leader (bupati) to obtain information for strategic decision making about mining potential. The goal of this research is to build a model of Geographical Information System that could provide data management of potential mines, so that the investors could easily get information according to their needs. To achieve that goal Research and Development method is used. The result of this research, is a model of Geographical Information System that implemented in an application to presenting data management of mines.

  13. Geographic risk modeling of childhood cancer relative to county-level crops, hazardous air pollutants and population density characteristics in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Li

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Childhood cancer has been linked to a variety of environmental factors, including agricultural activities, industrial pollutants and population mixing, but etiologic studies have often been inconclusive or inconsistent when considering specific cancer types. More specific exposure assessments are needed. It would be helpful to optimize future studies to incorporate knowledge of high-risk locations or geographic risk patterns. The objective of this study was to evaluate potential geographic risk patterns in Texas accounting for the possibility that multiple cancers may have similar geographic risks patterns. Methods A spatio-temporal risk modeling approach was used, whereby 19 childhood cancer types were modeled as potentially correlated within county-years. The standard morbidity ratios were modeled as functions of intensive crop production, intensive release of hazardous air pollutants, population density, and rapid population growth. Results There was supportive evidence for elevated risks for germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping and for hepatic tumors in areas of intense release of hazardous air pollutants. The risk for Hodgkin lymphoma appeared to be reduced in areas of rapidly growing population. Elevated spatial risks included four cancer histotypes, "other" leukemias, Central Nervous System (CNS embryonal tumors, CNS other gliomas and hepatic tumors with greater than 95% likelihood of elevated risks in at least one county. Conclusion The Bayesian implementation of the Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive model provided a flexible approach to the spatial modeling of multiple childhood cancer histotypes. The current study identified geographic factors supporting more focused studies of germ cell tumors and "other" gliomas in areas of intense cropping, hepatic cancer near Hazardous Air Pollutant (HAP release facilities and specific locations with increased risks for CNS embryonal tumors and

  14. Air Pollution Exposure Modeling for Health Studies | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dr. Michael Breen is leading the development of air pollution exposure models, integrated with novel personal sensor technologies, to improve exposure and risk assessments for individuals in health studies. He is co-investigator for multiple health studies assessing the exposure and effects of air pollutants. These health studies include participants with asthma, diabetes, and coronary artery disease living in various U.S. cities. He has developed, evaluated, and applied novel exposure modeling and time-activity tools, which includes the Exposure Model for Individuals (EMI), GPS-based Microenvironment Tracker (MicroTrac) and Exposure Tracker models. At this seminar, Dr. Breen will present the development and application of these models to predict individual-level personal exposures to particulate matter (PM) for two health studies in central North Carolina. These health studies examine the association between PM and adverse health outcomes for susceptible individuals. During Dr. Breen’s visit, he will also have the opportunity to establish additional collaborations with researchers at Harvard University that may benefit from the use of exposure models for cohort health studies. These research projects that link air pollution exposure with adverse health outcomes benefit EPA by developing model-predicted exposure-dose metrics for individuals in health studies to improve the understanding of exposure-response behavior of air pollutants, and to reduce participant

  15. Geographic information system-coupling sediment delivery distributed modeling based on observed data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S E; Kang, S H

    2014-01-01

    Spatially distributed sediment delivery (SEDD) models are of great interest in estimating the expected effect of changes on soil erosion and sediment yield. However, they can only be applied if the model can be calibrated using observed data. This paper presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based method to calculate the sediment discharge from basins to coastal areas. For this, an SEDD model, with a sediment rating curve method based on observed data, is proposed and validated. The model proposed here has been developed using the combined application of the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) and a spatially distributed sediment delivery ratio, within Model Builder of ArcGIS's software. The model focuses on spatial variability and is useful for estimating the spatial patterns of soil loss and sediment discharge. The model consists of two modules, a soil erosion prediction component and a sediment delivery model. The integrated approach allows for relatively practical and cost-effective estimation of spatially distributed soil erosion and sediment delivery, for gauged or ungauged basins. This paper provides the first attempt at estimating sediment delivery ratio based on observed data in the monsoon region of Korea.

  16. Variation in calculated human exposure. Comparison of calculations with seven European human exposure models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swartjes F; ECO

    2003-01-01

    Twenty scenarios, differing with respect to land use, soil type and contaminant, formed the basis for calculating human exposure from soil contaminants with the use of models contributed by seven European countries (one model per country). Here, the human exposures to children and children

  17. Advanced REACH tool: A Bayesian model for occupational exposure assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McNally, K.; Warren, N.; Fransman, W.; Entink, R.K.; Schinkel, J.; Van Tongeren, M.; Cherrie, J.W.; Kromhout, H.; Schneider, T.; Tielemans, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate sourc

  18. Feasibility of Close-Range Photogrammetric Models for Geographic Information System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Luke; /Rice U.

    2011-06-22

    The objective of this project was to determine the feasibility of using close-range architectural photogrammetry as an alternative three dimensional modeling technique in order to place the digital models in a geographic information system (GIS) at SLAC. With the available equipment and Australis photogrammetry software, the creation of full and accurate models of an example building, Building 281 on SLAC campus, was attempted. After conducting several equipment tests to determine the precision achievable, a complete photogrammetric survey was attempted. The dimensions of the resulting models were then compared against the true dimensions of the building. A complete building model was not evidenced to be obtainable using the current equipment and software. This failure was likely attributable to the limits of the software rather than the precision of the physical equipment. However, partial models of the building were shown to be accurate and determined to still be usable in a GIS. With further development of the photogrammetric software and survey procedure, the desired generation of a complete three dimensional model is likely still feasible.

  19. Local-Scale Air Quality Modeling in Support of Human Health and Exposure Research (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isakov, V.

    2010-12-01

    Spatially- and temporally-sparse information on air quality is a key concern for air-pollution-related environmental health studies. Monitor networks are sparse in both space and time, are costly to maintain, and are often designed purposely to avoid detecting highly localized sources. Recent studies have shown that more narrowly defining the geographic domain of the study populations and improvements in the measured/estimated ambient concentrations can lead to stronger associations between air pollution and hospital admissions and mortality records. Traditionally, ambient air quality measurements have been used as a primary input to support human health and exposure research. However, there is increasing evidence that the current ambient monitoring network is not capturing sharp gradients in exposure due to the presence of high concentration levels near, for example, major roadways. Many air pollutants exhibit large concentration gradients near large emitters such as major roadways, factories, ports, etc. To overcome these limitations, researchers are now beginning to use air quality models to support air pollution exposure and health studies. There are many advantages to using air quality models over traditional approaches based on existing ambient measurements alone. First, models can provide spatially- and temporally-resolved concentrations as direct input to exposure and health studies and thus better defining the concentration levels for the population in the geographic domain. Air quality models have a long history of use in air pollution regulations, and supported by regulatory agencies and a large user community. Also, models can provide bidirectional linkages between sources of emissions and ambient concentrations, thus allowing exploration of various mitigation strategies to reduce risk to exposure. In order to provide best estimates of air concentrations to support human health and exposure studies, model estimates should consider local-scale features

  20. Chapter three: methodology of exposure modeling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Moschandreas, DJ

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available (particles due to smoking, hobbies or other activities that impact the subject but not other people in the same microenvironment). This expression of inhalation exposure to particles can be readily used if the concentration of particles of ambient origin... in the exposure measurement (USEPA, 1997). D.J. Moschandreas et al. / Chemosphere 49 (2002) 923?946 925 The indirect method estimates exposures by measur- ing or estimating pollutant concentrations at different microenvironments where people spend their time...

  1. Validation of the dermal exposure model in ECETOC TRA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Franken, Remy; Goede, Henk; Fransman, Wouter; Schinkel, Jody

    2017-08-01

    The ECETOC TRA model (presently version 3.1) is often used to estimate worker inhalation and dermal exposure in regulatory risk assessment. The dermal model in ECETOC TRA has not yet been validated by comparison with independent measured exposure levels. This was the goal of the present study. Measured exposure levels and relevant contextual information were gathered via literature search, websites of relevant occupational health institutes and direct requests for data to industry. Exposure data were clustered in so-called exposure cases, which are sets of data from one data source that are expected to have the same values for input parameters in the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model. For each exposure case, the 75th percentile of measured values was calculated, because the model intends to estimate these values. The input values for the parameters in ECETOC TRA were assigned by an expert elicitation and consensus building process, based on descriptions of relevant contextual information.From more than 35 data sources, 106 useful exposure cases were derived, that were used for direct comparison with the model estimates. The exposure cases covered a large part of the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model. The model explained 37% of the variance in the 75th percentiles of measured values. In around 80% of the exposure cases, the model estimate was higher than the 75th percentile of measured values. In the remaining exposure cases, the model estimate may not be sufficiently conservative.The model was shown to have a clear bias towards (severe) overestimation of dermal exposure at low measured exposure values, while all cases of apparent underestimation by the ECETOC TRA dermal exposure model occurred at high measured exposure values. This can be partly explained by a built-in bias in the effect of concentration of substance in product used, duration of exposure and the use of protective gloves in the model. The effect of protective gloves was calculated to be on average a

  2. Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kebede Deribe

    Full Text Available Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues.Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008-2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district health offices' reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence.Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2-51.7 million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3-64.8% of Ethiopia's national population lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis.Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide

  3. The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevenson Christopher E

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men and 35.6% (women of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

  4. Objected-oriented remote sensing image classification method based on geographic ontology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Z.; Liu, Z. J.; Gu, H. Y.

    2016-11-01

    Nowadays, with the development of high resolution remote sensing image and the wide application of laser point cloud data, proceeding objected-oriented remote sensing classification based on the characteristic knowledge of multi-source spatial data has been an important trend on the field of remote sensing image classification, which gradually replaced the traditional method through improving algorithm to optimize image classification results. For this purpose, the paper puts forward a remote sensing image classification method that uses the he characteristic knowledge of multi-source spatial data to build the geographic ontology semantic network model, and carries out the objected-oriented classification experiment to implement urban features classification, the experiment uses protégé software which is developed by Stanford University in the United States, and intelligent image analysis software—eCognition software as the experiment platform, uses hyperspectral image and Lidar data that is obtained through flight in DaFeng City of JiangSu as the main data source, first of all, the experiment uses hyperspectral image to obtain feature knowledge of remote sensing image and related special index, the second, the experiment uses Lidar data to generate nDSM(Normalized DSM, Normalized Digital Surface Model),obtaining elevation information, the last, the experiment bases image feature knowledge, special index and elevation information to build the geographic ontology semantic network model that implement urban features classification, the experiment results show that, this method is significantly higher than the traditional classification algorithm on classification accuracy, especially it performs more evidently on the respect of building classification. The method not only considers the advantage of multi-source spatial data, for example, remote sensing image, Lidar data and so on, but also realizes multi-source spatial data knowledge integration and application

  5. Modelling of human exposure to air pollution in the urban environment: a GPS-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Daniela; Tchepel, Oxana

    2014-03-01

    The main objective of this work was the development of a new modelling tool for quantification of human exposure to traffic-related air pollution within distinct microenvironments by using a novel approach for trajectory analysis of the individuals. For this purpose, mobile phones with Global Positioning System technology have been used to collect daily trajectories of the individuals with higher temporal resolution and a trajectory data mining, and geo-spatial analysis algorithm was developed and implemented within a Geographical Information System to obtain time-activity patterns. These data were combined with air pollutant concentrations estimated for several microenvironments. In addition to outdoor, pollutant concentrations in distinct indoor microenvironments are characterised using a probabilistic approach. An example of the application for PM2.5 is presented and discussed. The results obtained for daily average individual exposure correspond to a mean value of 10.6 and 6.0-16.4 μg m(-3) in terms of 5th-95th percentiles. Analysis of the results shows that the use of point air quality measurements for exposure assessment will not explain the intra- and inter-variability of individuals' exposure levels. The methodology developed and implemented in this work provides time-sequence of the exposure events thus making possible association of the exposure with the individual activities and delivers main statistics on individual's air pollution exposure with high spatio-temporal resolution.

  6. Integration of environmental simulation models with satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies: case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyaert, Louis T.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Reed, Bradley C.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental modelers are testing and evaluating a prototype land cover characteristics database for the conterminous United States developed by the EROS Data Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Nebraska Center for Advanced Land Management Information Technologies. This database was developed from multi temporal, 1-kilometer advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for 1990 and various ancillary data sets such as elevation, ecological regions, and selected climatic normals. Several case studies using this database were analyzed to illustrate the integration of satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems technologies with land-atmosphere interactions models at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The case studies are representative of contemporary environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management, and environmental simulation modeling at local to regional levels in global change research, land and water resource management and environmental risk assessment. The case studies feature land surface parameterizations for atmospheric mesoscale and global climate models; biogenic-hydrocarbons emissions models; distributed parameter watershed and other hydrological models; and various ecological models such as ecosystem, dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, ecotone variability, and equilibrium vegetation models. The case studies demonstrate the important of multi temporal AVHRR data to develop to develop and maintain a flexible, near-realtime land cover characteristics database. Moreover, such a flexible database is needed to derive various vegetation classification schemes, to aggregate data for nested models, to develop remote sensing algorithms, and to provide data on dynamic landscape characteristics. The case studies illustrate how such a database supports research on spatial heterogeneity, land use, sensitivity analysis, and scaling issues

  7. Exposure-Based Cat Modeling, Available data, Advantages, & Limitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Hosoe, Taro; Schrah, Mike; Saito, Keiko

    2010-05-01

    This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of exposure data for cat-modeling and considers concepts of scale as well as the completeness of data and data scoring using field/model examples. Catastrophe modeling based on exposure data has been considered the panacea for insurance-related cat modeling since the late 1980's. Reasons for this include: • The ability to extend risk modeling to consider data beyond historical losses, • Usability across many relevant scales, • Flexibility in addressing complex structures and policy conditions, and • Ability to assess dependence of risk results on exposure-attributes and exposure-modifiers, such as lines of business, occupancy types, and mitigation features, at any given scale. In order to calculate related risk, monetary exposure is correlated to vulnerabilities that have been calibrated with historical results, plausibility concepts, and/or physical modeling. While exposure based modeling is widely adopted, we also need to be aware of its limitations which include: • Boundaries in our understanding of the distribution of exposure, • Spatial interdependence of exposure patterns and the time-dependence of exposure, • Incomplete availability of loss information to calibrate relevant exposure attributes/structure with related vulnerabilities and losses, • The scale-dependence of vulnerability, • Potential for missing or incomplete communication of assumptions made during model calibration, • Inefficiencies in the aggregation or disaggregation of vulnerabilities, and • Factors which can influence losses other than exposure, vulnerability, and hazard. Although we might assume that the higher the resolution the better, regional model calibration is often limited to lower than street level resolution with higher resolution being achieved by disaggregating results using topographic/roughness features with often loosely constrained and/or varying effects on losses. This suggests that higher accuracy

  8. A validation of ground ambulance pre-hospital times modeled using geographic information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel Alka B

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evaluating geographic access to health services often requires determining the patient travel time to a specified service. For urgent care, many research studies have modeled patient pre-hospital time by ground emergency medical services (EMS using geographic information systems (GIS. The purpose of this study was to determine if the modeling assumptions proposed through prior United States (US studies are valid in a non-US context, and to use the resulting information to provide revised recommendations for modeling travel time using GIS in the absence of actual EMS trip data. Methods The study sample contained all emergency adult patient trips within the Calgary area for 2006. Each record included four components of pre-hospital time (activation, response, on-scene and transport interval. The actual activation and on-scene intervals were compared with those used in published models. The transport interval was calculated within GIS using the Network Analyst extension of Esri ArcGIS 10.0 and the response interval was derived using previously established methods. These GIS derived transport and response intervals were compared with the actual times using descriptive methods. We used the information acquired through the analysis of the EMS trip data to create an updated model that could be used to estimate travel time in the absence of actual EMS trip records. Results There were 29,765 complete EMS records for scene locations inside the city and 529 outside. The actual median on-scene intervals were longer than the average previously reported by 7–8 minutes. Actual EMS pre-hospital times across our study area were significantly higher than the estimated times modeled using GIS and the original travel time assumptions. Our updated model, although still underestimating the total pre-hospital time, more accurately represents the true pre-hospital time in our study area. Conclusions The widespread use of generalized EMS pre

  9. A validation of ground ambulance pre-hospital times modeled using geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Alka B; Waters, Nigel M; Blanchard, Ian E; Doig, Christopher J; Ghali, William A

    2012-10-03

    Evaluating geographic access to health services often requires determining the patient travel time to a specified service. For urgent care, many research studies have modeled patient pre-hospital time by ground emergency medical services (EMS) using geographic information systems (GIS). The purpose of this study was to determine if the modeling assumptions proposed through prior United States (US) studies are valid in a non-US context, and to use the resulting information to provide revised recommendations for modeling travel time using GIS in the absence of actual EMS trip data. The study sample contained all emergency adult patient trips within the Calgary area for 2006. Each record included four components of pre-hospital time (activation, response, on-scene and transport interval). The actual activation and on-scene intervals were compared with those used in published models. The transport interval was calculated within GIS using the Network Analyst extension of Esri ArcGIS 10.0 and the response interval was derived using previously established methods. These GIS derived transport and response intervals were compared with the actual times using descriptive methods. We used the information acquired through the analysis of the EMS trip data to create an updated model that could be used to estimate travel time in the absence of actual EMS trip records. There were 29,765 complete EMS records for scene locations inside the city and 529 outside. The actual median on-scene intervals were longer than the average previously reported by 7-8 minutes. Actual EMS pre-hospital times across our study area were significantly higher than the estimated times modeled using GIS and the original travel time assumptions. Our updated model, although still underestimating the total pre-hospital time, more accurately represents the true pre-hospital time in our study area. The widespread use of generalized EMS pre-hospital time assumptions based on US data may not be appropriate in a

  10. Geographical networks: geographical effects on network properties

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kong-qing YANG; Lei YANG; Bai-hua GONG; Zhong-cai LIN; Hong-sheng HE; Liang HUANG

    2008-01-01

    Complex networks describe a wide range of sys-tems in nature and society. Since most real systems exist in certain physical space and the distance between the nodes has influence on the connections, it is helpful to study geographi-cal complex networks and to investigate how the geographical constrains on the connections affect the network properties. In this paper, we briefly review our recent progress on geo-graphical complex networks with respect of statistics, mod-elling, robustness, and synchronizability. It has been shown that the geographical constrains tend to make the network less robust and less synchronizable. Synchronization on random networks and clustered networks is also studied.

  11. Biological exposure models for oil spill impact analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The oil spill impact analysis (OSIA) software system has been developed to supply a tool for comprehensive, quantitative environmental impact assessments resulting from oil spills. In the system, a biological component evaluates potential effects on exposed organisms based on results from a physico-chemieal fates component, including the extent and characteristics of the surface slick, and dissolved and total concentrations of hydrocarbons in the water column. The component includes a particle-based exposure model for migratory adult fish populations, a particle-based exposure model for spawning planktonic organisms (eggs and larvae), and an exposure model for wildlife species (sea birds or marine mammals). The exposure model for migratory adult fish populations simulates the migration behaviors of fish populations migrating to or staying in their feeding areas, over-wintering areas or spawning areas, and determines the acute effects (mortality) and chronic accumulation (body burdens) from the dissolved contaminant. The exposure model for spawning planktonic organisms simulates the release of eggs and larvae, also as particles, from specific spawning areas during the spawning period, and determines their potential exposure to contaminants in the water or sediment. The exposure model for wild species calculates the exposure to surrace oil of wildlife (bird and marine mammal ) categories inhabiting the contaminated area. Compared with the earlier models in which all kinds of organisms are assumed evenly and randomly distributed, the updated biological exposure models can more realistically estimate potential effects on marine ecological system from oil spill pollution events.

  12. An agent-based model of exposure to human toxocariasis: a multi-country validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanobana, K; Devleesschauwer, B; Polman, K; Speybroeck, N

    2013-07-01

    Seroprevalence data illustrate that human exposure to Toxocara is frequent. Environmental contamination with Toxocara spp. eggs is assumed to be the best indicator of human exposure, but increased risk of exposure has also been associated with many other factors. Reported associations are inconsistent, however, and there is still ambiguity regarding the factors driving the onset of Toxocara antibody positivity. The objective of this work was to assess the validity of our current conceptual understanding of the key processes driving human exposure to Toxocara. We constructed an agent-based model predicting Toxocara antibody positivity (as a measure of exposure) in children. Exposure was assumed to depend on the joint probability of 3 parameters: (1) environmental contamination with Toxocara spp. eggs, (2) larvation of these eggs and (3) the age-related contact with these eggs. This joint probability was linked to processes of acquired humoral immunity, influencing the rate of antibody seroreversion. The results of the simulation were validated against published data from 5 different geographical settings. Using simple rules and a stochastic approach with parameter estimates derived from the respective contexts, plausible serological patterns emerged from the model in nearly all settings. Our approach leads to novel insights in the transmission dynamics of Toxocara.

  13. The European ALMA Regional Centre Network: A Geographically Distributed User Support Model

    CERN Document Server

    Hatziminaoglou, Evanthia; Andreani, Paola; Barta, Miroslav; Bertoldi, Frank; Brand, Jan; Gueth, Frederique; Hogerheijde, Michiel; Maercker, Matthias; Massardi, Marcella; Muehle, Stefanie; Muxlow, Thomas; Richards, Anita; Schilke, Peter; Tilanus, Remo; Vlemmings, Wouter; Afonso, Jose; Messias, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    In recent years there has been a paradigm shift from centralised to geographically distributed resources. Individual entities are no longer able to host or afford the necessary expertise in-house, and, as a consequence, society increasingly relies on widespread collaborations. Although such collaborations are now the norm for scientific projects, more technical structures providing support to a distributed scientific community without direct financial or other material benefits are scarce. The network of European ALMA Regional Centre (ARC) nodes is an example of such an internationally distributed user support network. It is an organised effort to provide the European ALMA user community with uniform expert support to enable optimal usage and scientific output of the ALMA facility. The network model for the European ARC nodes is described in terms of its organisation, communication strategies and user support.

  14. Geographical Detector Model for Influencing Factors of Industrial Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Inner Mongolia, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rina Wu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Studying the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions is not only practically but also theoretically crucial for establishing regional carbon-reduction policies, developing low-carbon economy and solving the climate problems. Therefore, we used a geographical detector model which is consists of four parts, i.e., risk detector, factor detector, ecological detector and interaction detector to analyze the effect of these social economic factors, i.e., GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate, economic growth rate, population and road density on the increase of energy consumption carbon dioxide emissions in industrial sector in Inner Mongolia northeast of China. Thus, combining with the result of four detectors, we found that GDP and population more influence than economic growth rate, industrial structure, urbanization rate and road density. The interactive effect of any two influencing factors enhances the increase of the carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of this research have significant policy implications for regions like Inner Mongolia.

  15. A study of impact of the geographic dependence of observing system on parameter estimation with an intermediate coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xinrong; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Rosati, Anthony; Delworth, Thomas L.

    2013-04-01

    Observational information has a strong geographic dependence that may directly influence the quality of parameter estimation in a coupled climate system. Using an intermediate atmosphere-ocean-land coupled model, the impact of geographic dependent observing system on parameter estimation is explored within a "twin" experiment framework. The "observations" produced by a "truth" model are assimilated into an assimilation model in which the most sensitive model parameter has a different geographic structure from the "truth", for retrieving the "truth" geographic structure of the parameter. To examine the influence of data-sparse areas on parameter estimation, the twin experiment is also performed with an observing system in which the observations in some area are removed. Results show that traditional single-valued parameter estimation (SPE) attains a global mean of the "truth", while geographic dependent parameter optimization (GPO) can retrieve the "truth" structure of the parameter and therefore significantly improves estimated states and model predictability. This is especially true when an observing system with data-void areas is applied, where the error of state estimate is reduced by 31 % and the corresponding forecast skill is doubled by GPO compared with SPE.

  16. A priori parameter estimates for global hydrological modeling using geographically based information: Application of the CREST hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Z.; Zhang, K.; Xue, X.; Huang, J.; Hong, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are among the most common natural disasters with worldwide impacts that cause significant humanitarian and economic negative consequences. The increasing availability of satellite-based precipitation estimates and geospatial datasets with global coverage and improved temporal resolutions has enhanced our capability of forecasting floods and monitoring water resources across the world. This study presents an approach combing physically based and empirical methods for a-priori parameter estimates and a parameter dataset for the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrological model at the global scale. This approach takes advantage of geographic information such as topography, land cover, and soil properties to derive the distributed parameter values across the world. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the utility of a-priori parameter estimates to improve the performance of the CREST distributed hydrologic model and enable its prediction at poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. Using the CREST hydrologic model, several typical river basins in different continents were selected to serve as test areas. The results show that the simulated daily stream flows using the parameters derived from geographically based information outperform the results using the lumped parameters. Overall, this early study highlights that a priori parameter estimates for hydrologic model warrants improved model predictive capability in ungauged basins at regional to global scales.

  17. Geographically weighted lasso (GWL) study for modeling the diarrheic to achieve open defecation free (ODF) target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumsari, Nurvita; Sutidjo, S. U.; Brodjol; Soedjono, Eddy S.

    2014-03-01

    Diarrhea has been one main cause of morbidity and mortality to children around the world, especially in the developing countries According to available data that was mentioned. It showed that sanitary and healthy lifestyle implementation by the inhabitants was not good yet. Inadequacy of environmental influence and the availability of health services were suspected factors which influenced diarrhea cases happened followed by heightened percentage of the diarrheic. This research is aimed at modelling the diarrheic by using Geographically Weighted Lasso method. With the existence of spatial heterogeneity was tested by Breusch Pagan, it was showed that diarrheic modeling with weighted regression, especially GWR and GWL, can explain the variation in each location. But, the absence of multi-collinearity cases on predictor variables, which were affecting the diarrheic, resulted in GWR and GWL modelling to be not different or identical. It is shown from the resulting MSE value. While from R2 value which usually higher on GWL model showed a significant variable predictor based on more parametric shrinkage value.

  18. Ontology-based analysis of multi-scale modeling of geographical features

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG; Yanhui; LI; Xiaojuan; GONG; Huili

    2006-01-01

    As multi-scale databases based on scale series of map data are built, conceptual models are needed to define proper multi-scale representation formulas and to extract model entities and the relationships among them. However, the results of multi-scale conceptual abstraction schema may differ, according to which cognition, abstraction and application views are utilized, which presents an obvious obstacle to the reuse and sharing of spatial data. To facilitate the design of unified, common and objective abstract schema views for multi-scale spatial databases, this paper proposes an ontology-based analysis method for the multi-scale modeling of geographical features. It includes a three-layer ontology model, which serves as the framework for common multi-scale abstraction schema; an explanation of formulary abstractions accompanied by definitions of entities and their relationships at the same scale, as well as different scales,which are meant to provide strong feasibility, expansibility and speciality functions; and a case in point involving multi-scale representations of road features, to verify the method's feasibility.

  19. Fisher Scoring Method for Parameter Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Nugrahani Putri, Aulia

    2017-06-01

    GWOLR model combines geographically weighted regression (GWR) and (ordinal logistic reression) OLR models. Its parameter estimation employs maximum likelihood estimation. Such parameter estimation, however, yields difficult-to-solve system of nonlinear equations, and therefore numerical approximation approach is required. The iterative approximation approach, in general, uses Newton-Raphson (NR) method. The NR method has a disadvantage—its Hessian matrix is always the second derivatives of each iteration so it does not always produce converging results. With regard to this matter, NR model is modified by substituting its Hessian matrix into Fisher information matrix, which is termed Fisher scoring (FS). The present research seeks to determine GWOLR model parameter estimation using Fisher scoring method and apply the estimation on data of the level of vulnerability to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Semarang. The research concludes that health facilities give the greatest contribution to the probability of the number of DHF sufferers in both villages. Based on the number of the sufferers, IR category of DHF in both villages can be determined.

  20. Results comparison and model validation for flood loss functions in Australian geographical conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, R.; Ngo, T.; Lehman, W.

    2015-06-01

    Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustainable developments are increasing the risk of floods, namely flood frequency and intensity. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster impacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful. This study aims to quantify the direct physical damage to residential structures that are prone to flood phenomena in Australia. In this paper, the physical consequences of two floods from Queensland have been simulated, and the results have been compared with the performance of two selected methodologies and one newly derived model. Based on this analysis, the adaptability and applicability of the selected methodologies will be assessed in terms of Australian geographical conditions. Results obtained from the new empirically-based function and non-adapted methodologies indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models are strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estimation without model validation results in inaccurate prediction of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, especially if models have not been adapted with real damage data.

  1. Structure and application of an interface program between a geographic-information system and a ground-water flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Metre, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A computer-program interface between a geographic-information system and a groundwater flow model links two unrelated software systems for use in developing the flow models. The interface program allows the modeler to compile and manage geographic components of a groundwater model within the geographic information system. A significant savings of time and effort is realized in developing, calibrating, and displaying the groundwater flow model. Four major guidelines were followed in developing the interface program: (1) no changes to the groundwater flow model code were to be made; (2) a data structure was to be designed within the geographic information system that follows the same basic data structure as the groundwater flow model; (3) the interface program was to be flexible enough to support all basic data options available within the model; and (4) the interface program was to be as efficient as possible in terms of computer time used and online-storage space needed. Because some programs in the interface are written in control-program language, the interface will run only on a computer with the PRIMOS operating system. (USGS)

  2. Operation of the computer model for microenvironment solar exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillis, J. R.; Bourassa, R. J.; Gruenbaum, P. E.

    1995-01-01

    A computer model for microenvironmental solar exposure was developed to predict solar exposure to satellite surfaces which may shadow or reflect on one another. This document describes the technical features of the model as well as instructions for the installation and use of the program.

  3. Integration of Air Quality & Exposure Models for Health Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation describes a new community-scale tool called exposure model for individuals (EMI), which predicts five tiers of individual-level exposure metrics for ambient PM using outdoor concentrations, questionnaires, weather, and time-location information. In this modeling ...

  4. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  5. USEPA SHEDS MODEL: METHODOLOGY FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT FOR WOOD PRESERVATIVES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A physically-based, Monte Carlo probabilistic model (SHEDS-Wood: Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for wood preservatives) has been applied to assess the exposure and dose of children to arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr) from contact with chromated copper arsenat...

  6. Multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a Geographic Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Joseph D.; Dunn, James E.; Smith, Kimberly G.

    1993-01-01

    Simple univariate statistical techniques may not adequately assess the multidimensional nature of habitats used by wildlife. Thus, we developed a multivariate method to model habitat-use potential using a set of female black bear (Ursus americanus) radio locations and habitat data consisting of forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to streams, and forest cover type diversity score in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. The model is based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. That statistic is a measure of dissimilarity and represents a standardized squared distance between a set of sample variates and an ideal based on the mean of variates associated with animal observations. Calculations were made with the GIS to produce a map containing Mahalanobis distance values within each cell on a 60- × 60-m grid. The model identified areas of high habitat use potential that could not otherwise be identified by independent perusal of any single map layer. This technique avoids many pitfalls that commonly affect typical multivariate analyses of habitat use and is a useful tool for habitat manipulation or mitigation to favor terrestrial vertebrates that use habitats on a landscape scale.

  7. Self Adaptive Trust Model for Secure Geographic Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Raghu Vamsi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The presence of malicious nodes in the ad hoc and sensor networks poses serious security attacks during routing which affects the network performance. To address such attacks, numerous researchers have proposed defense techniques using a human behavior pattern called trust. Among existing solutions, direct observations based trust models have gained significant attention in the research community. In this paper, the authors propose a Self Adaptive Trust Model (SATM of secure geographic routing in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. Unlike conventional weight based trust models, SATM intelligently assigns the weights associated with the network activities. These weights are applied to compute the final trust value. SATM considers direct observations to restrict the reputation based attacks. Due to the flexible and intelligent weight computation, SATM dynamically detects the malicious nodes and direct the traffic towards trustworthy nodes. SATM has been incorporated into Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing (GPSR protocol. Simulation results using the network simulator NS-2 have shown that GPSR with SATM is robust against detecting malicious nodes.

  8. Predicting geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species (Aves: Furnariidae in South America based on ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria da Salete Gurgel Costa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phacellodomus Reichenbach, 1853, comprises nine species of Furnariids that occur in South America in open and generally dry areas. This study estimated the geographic distributions of Phacellodomus species in South America by ecological niche modeling. Applying maximum entropy method, models were produced for eight species based on six climatic variables and 949 occurrence records. Since highest climatic suitability for Phacellodomus species has been estimated in open and dry areas, the Amazon rainforest areas are not very suitable for these species. Annual precipitation and minimum temperature of the coldest month are the variables that most influence the models. Phacellodomus species occurred in 35 ecoregions of South America. Chaco and Uruguayan savannas were the ecoregions with the highest number of species. Despite the overall connection of Phacellodomus species with dry areas, species such as P. ruber, P. rufifrons, P. ferrugineigula and P. erythrophthalmus occurred in wet forests and wetland ecoregions.

  9. A GIS-based modeling system for petroleum waste management. Geographical information system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z; Huang, G H; Li, J B

    2003-01-01

    With an urgent need for effective management of petroleum-contaminated sites, a GIS-aided simulation (GISSIM) system is presented in this study. The GISSIM contains two components: an advanced 3D numerical model and a geographical information system (GIS), which are integrated within a general framework. The modeling component undertakes simulation for the fate of contaminants in subsurface unsaturated and saturated zones. The GIS component is used in three areas throughout the system development and implementation process: (i) managing spatial and non-spatial databases; (ii) linking inputs, model, and outputs; and (iii) providing an interface between the GISSIM and its users. The developed system is applied to a North American case study. Concentrations of benzene, toluene, and xylenes in groundwater under a petroleum-contaminated site are dynamically simulated. Reasonable outputs have been obtained and presented graphically. They provide quantitative and scientific bases for further assessment of site-contamination impacts and risks, as well as decisions on practical remediation actions.

  10. Evaluation of the 3d Urban Modelling Capabilities in Geographical Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogru, A. O.; Seker, D. Z.

    2010-12-01

    Geographical Information System (GIS) Technology, which provides successful solutions to basic spatial problems, is currently widely used in 3 dimensional (3D) modeling of physical reality with its developing visualization tools. The modeling of large and complicated phenomenon is a challenging problem in terms of computer graphics currently in use. However, it is possible to visualize that phenomenon in 3D by using computer systems. 3D models are used in developing computer games, military training, urban planning, tourism and etc. The use of 3D models for planning and management of urban areas is very popular issue of city administrations. In this context, 3D City models are produced and used for various purposes. However the requirements of the models vary depending on the type and scope of the application. While a high level visualization, where photorealistic visualization techniques are widely used, is required for touristy and recreational purposes, an abstract visualization of the physical reality is generally sufficient for the communication of the thematic information. The visual variables, which are the principle components of cartographic visualization, such as: color, shape, pattern, orientation, size, position, and saturation are used for communicating the thematic information. These kinds of 3D city models are called as abstract models. Standardization of technologies used for 3D modeling is now available by the use of CityGML. CityGML implements several novel concepts to support interoperability, consistency and functionality. For example it supports different Levels-of-Detail (LoD), which may arise from independent data collection processes and are used for efficient visualization and efficient data analysis. In one CityGML data set, the same object may be represented in different LoD simultaneously, enabling the analysis and visualization of the same object with regard to different degrees of resolution. Furthermore, two CityGML data sets

  11. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  12. Evaluation of AirGIS: a GIS-based air pollution and human exposure modelling system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ketzel, Matthias; Berkowicz, Ruwim; Hvidberg, Martin

    2011-01-01

    This study describes in brief the latest extensions of the Danish Geographic Information System (GIS)-based air pollution and human exposure modelling system (AirGIS), which has been developed in Denmark since 2001 and gives results of an evaluation with measured air pollution data. The system...... shows, in general, a good performance for both long-term averages (annual and monthly averages), short-term averages (hourly and daily) as well as when reproducing spatial variation in air pollution concentrations. Some shortcomings and future perspectives of the system are discussed too....

  13. Geographic Names

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), developed by the United States Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Board of Geographic Names, provides...

  14. A poisson regression approach for modelling spatial autocorrelation between geographically referenced observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jolley Damien

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Analytic methods commonly used in epidemiology do not account for spatial correlation between observations. In regression analyses, omission of that autocorrelation can bias parameter estimates and yield incorrect standard error estimates. Methods We used age standardised incidence ratios (SIRs of esophageal cancer (EC from the Babol cancer registry from 2001 to 2005, and extracted socioeconomic indices from the Statistical Centre of Iran. The following models for SIR were used: (1 Poisson regression with agglomeration-specific nonspatial random effects; (2 Poisson regression with agglomeration-specific spatial random effects. Distance-based and neighbourhood-based autocorrelation structures were used for defining the spatial random effects and a pseudolikelihood approach was applied to estimate model parameters. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC, Akaike's information criterion (AIC and adjusted pseudo R2, were used for model comparison. Results A Gaussian semivariogram with an effective range of 225 km best fit spatial autocorrelation in agglomeration-level EC incidence. The Moran's I index was greater than its expected value indicating systematic geographical clustering of EC. The distance-based and neighbourhood-based Poisson regression estimates were generally similar. When residual spatial dependence was modelled, point and interval estimates of covariate effects were different to those obtained from the nonspatial Poisson model. Conclusions The spatial pattern evident in the EC SIR and the observation that point estimates and standard errors differed depending on the modelling approach indicate the importance of accounting for residual spatial correlation in analyses of EC incidence in the Caspian region of Iran. Our results also illustrate that spatial smoothing must be applied with care.

  15. Calibration of the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) model using automatic calibration and geographical information systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Abed, N. A.; Whiteley, H. R.

    2002-11-01

    Calibrating a comprehensive, multi-parameter conceptual hydrological model, such as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model, is a major challenge. This paper describes calibration procedures for water-quantity parameters of the HSPF version 10·11 using the automatic-calibration parameter estimator model coupled with a geographical information system (GIS) approach for spatially averaged properties. The study area was the Grand River watershed, located in southern Ontario, Canada, between 79° 30 and 80° 57W longitude and 42° 51 and 44° 31N latitude. The drainage area is 6965 km2. Calibration efforts were directed to those model parameters that produced large changes in model response during sensitivity tests run prior to undertaking calibration. A GIS was used extensively in this study. It was first used in the watershed segmentation process. During calibration, the GIS data were used to establish realistic starting values for the surface and subsurface zone parameters LZSN, UZSN, COVER, and INFILT and physically reasonable ratios of these parameters among watersheds were preserved during calibration with the ratios based on the known properties of the subwatersheds determined using GIS. This calibration procedure produced very satisfactory results; the percentage difference between the simulated and the measured yearly discharge ranged between 4 to 16%, which is classified as good to very good calibration. The average simulated daily discharge for the watershed outlet at Brantford for the years 1981-85 was 67 m3 s-1 and the average measured discharge at Brantford was 70 m3 s-1. The coupling of a GIS with automatice calibration produced a realistic and accurate calibration for the HSPF model with much less effort and subjectivity than would be required for unassisted calibration.

  16. A statistical framework for the validation of a population exposure model based on personal exposure data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Delphy; Valari, Myrto; Markakis, Konstantinos; Payan, Sébastien

    2016-04-01

    Currently, ambient pollutant concentrations at monitoring sites are routinely measured by local networks, such as AIRPARIF in Paris, France. Pollutant concentration fields are also simulated with regional-scale chemistry transport models such as CHIMERE (http://www.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere) under air-quality forecasting platforms (e.g. Prev'Air http://www.prevair.org) or research projects. These data may be combined with more or less sophisticated techniques to provide a fairly good representation of pollutant concentration spatial gradients over urban areas. Here we focus on human exposure to atmospheric contaminants. Based on census data on population dynamics and demographics, modeled outdoor concentrations and infiltration of outdoor air-pollution indoors we have developed a population exposure model for ozone and PM2.5. A critical challenge in the field of population exposure modeling is model validation since personal exposure data are expensive and therefore, rare. However, recent research has made low cost mobile sensors fairly common and therefore personal exposure data should become more and more accessible. In view of planned cohort field-campaigns where such data will be available over the Paris region, we propose in the present study a statistical framework that makes the comparison between modeled and measured exposures meaningful. Our ultimate goal is to evaluate the exposure model by comparing modeled exposures to monitor data. The scientific question we address here is how to downscale modeled data that are estimated on the county population scale at the individual scale which is appropriate to the available measurements. To assess this question we developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework that assimilates actual individual data into population statistics and updates the probability estimate.

  17. [Geographical origin discrimination of Auricularia auricula using variable selection method of modeling power].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Sun, Guang-ming; He, Yong

    2010-01-01

    Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with variable selection method of modeling power was investigated for the fast and accurate geographical origin discrimination of auricularia auricula. A total of 240 samples of auriculari auricula were collected in the market, and the spectra of all samples were scanned within the spectral region of 1100-2500 nm. The calibration set was composed of 180 (45 samples for each origin) samples, and the remaining 60 samples were employed as the validation set. The optimal partial least squares (PLS) discriminant model was achieved after performance comparison of different preprocessing (Savitzky-Golay smoothing, standard normal variate, 1-derivative, and 2-derivative). The effective wavelengths, which were selected by modeling power (MP) and used as input data matrix of least squares-support vector machine (LS-SVM), were employed for the development of modeling power-least squares-support vector machine (MP-LS-SVM) model. Radial basis function (RBF) kernel was applied as kernel function. Three threshold methods for variable selection by modeling power were applied in MP-LSSVM models, and there were the values of modeling power higher than 0.95, higher than 0.90, and higher than 0.90 combined with peak location (0.90+Peak). The correct recognition ratio in the validation set was used as evaluation standards. The absolute error of prediction was set as 0.1, 0.2 and 0.5, which showed the wrong recognition threshold value. The results indicated that the MP-LS-SVM (0.90+Peak) model could achieve the optimal performance in all three absolute error standards (0.1, 0.2 and 0.5), and the correct recognition ratio was 98.3%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The variable selection threshold (0.90+Peak) was the most suitable one in the application of modeling power. It was concluded that modeling power was an effective variable selection method, and near infrared spectroscopy combined with MP-LS-SVM model was successfully applied for the origin

  18. Quality of Life Assessment in Urban Environment Using a Geographical Informational System Model. Case Study: Brăila City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA IOANA VLAD ŞANDRU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The study on the quality of life ( QoL in urban areas is gaining interest from a variety of disciplines such as planning, geography, sociology, economics, psychology, political science, marketing, and is becoming an important tool for urban planning and management. At present, there is a great deal of ambiguity and controversy on the concept of QoL, its elements and indicators. Thus, the present paper focuses on the development of a methodology for assessing quality of life in urban environment implementing a geographical informational system model that includes data from different areas of analysis, as follows: geographical data, Urban Audit socio-economic data, Urban Atlas data, satellite image data, survey data and indicators. The Geographic Information model derived from correlating the data mentioned above is used for evaluating the quality of life in Brăila, a 200,000 people city, situated in eastern Romania and port on the Danube River.

  19. A Global User-Driven Model for Tile Prefetching in Web Geographical Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shaoming; Chong, Yanwen; Zhang, Hang; Tan, Xicheng

    2017-01-01

    A web geographical information system is a typical service-intensive application. Tile prefetching and cache replacement can improve cache hit ratios by proactively fetching tiles from storage and replacing the appropriate tiles from the high-speed cache buffer without waiting for a client's requests, which reduces disk latency and improves system access performance. Most popular prefetching strategies consider only the relative tile popularities to predict which tile should be prefetched or consider only a single individual user's access behavior to determine which neighbor tiles need to be prefetched. Some studies show that comprehensively considering all users' access behaviors and all tiles' relationships in the prediction process can achieve more significant improvements. Thus, this work proposes a new global user-driven model for tile prefetching and cache replacement. First, based on all users' access behaviors, a type of expression method for tile correlation is designed and implemented. Then, a conditional prefetching probability can be computed based on the proposed correlation expression mode. Thus, some tiles to be prefetched can be found by computing and comparing the conditional prefetching probability from the uncached tiles set and, similarly, some replacement tiles can be found in the cache buffer according to multi-step prefetching. Finally, some experiments are provided comparing the proposed model with other global user-driven models, other single user-driven models, and other client-side prefetching strategies. The results show that the proposed model can achieve a prefetching hit rate in approximately 10.6% ~ 110.5% higher than the compared methods.

  20. Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling approach to determine the fastest delivery routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abousaeidi, Mohammad; Fauzi, Rosmadi; Muhamad, Rusnah

    2016-09-01

    This study involves the adoption of the Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling approach to determine the quickest routes for fresh vegetable delivery. During transport, fresh vegetables mainly deteriorate on account of temperature and delivery time. Nonetheless, little attention has been directed to transportation issues in most areas within Kuala Lumpur. In addition, perishable food normally has a short shelf life, thus timely delivery significantly affects delivery costs. Therefore, selecting efficient routes would consequently reduce the total transportation costs. The regression model is applied in this study to determine the parameters that affect route selection with respect to the fastest delivery of fresh vegetables. For the purpose of this research, ArcGIS software with network analyst extension is adopted to solve the problem of complex networks. The final output of this research is a map of quickest routes with the best delivery times based on all variables. The variables tested from regression analysis are the most effective parameters to make the flow of road networks slower. The objective is to improve the delivery services by achieving the least drive time. The main findings of this research are that Land use such as residential area and population as variables are the effective parameters on drive time.

  1. Geographic Information System (GIS modeling approach to determine the fastest delivery routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Abousaeidi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study involves the adoption of the Geographic Information System (GIS modeling approach to determine the quickest routes for fresh vegetable delivery. During transport, fresh vegetables mainly deteriorate on account of temperature and delivery time. Nonetheless, little attention has been directed to transportation issues in most areas within Kuala Lumpur. In addition, perishable food normally has a short shelf life, thus timely delivery significantly affects delivery costs. Therefore, selecting efficient routes would consequently reduce the total transportation costs. The regression model is applied in this study to determine the parameters that affect route selection with respect to the fastest delivery of fresh vegetables. For the purpose of this research, ArcGIS software with network analyst extension is adopted to solve the problem of complex networks. The final output of this research is a map of quickest routes with the best delivery times based on all variables. The variables tested from regression analysis are the most effective parameters to make the flow of road networks slower. The objective is to improve the delivery services by achieving the least drive time. The main findings of this research are that Land use such as residential area and population as variables are the effective parameters on drive time.

  2. Media Exposure: How Models Simplify Sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Peter Stendahl

    1998-01-01

    In media planning, the distribution of exposures to more ad spots in more media (print, TV, radio) is crucial to the evaluation of the campaign. If such information should be sampled, it would only be possible in expensive panel-studies (eg TV-meter panels). Alternatively, the distribution of exp...

  3. Media Exposure: How Models Simplify Sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Peter Stendahl

    1998-01-01

    In media planning, the distribution of exposures to more ad spots in more media (print, TV, radio) is crucial to the evaluation of the campaign. If such information should be sampled, it would only be possible in expensive panel-studies (eg TV-meter panels). Alternatively, the distribution of exp...

  4. Modelling Human Exposure to Chemicals in Food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slob W

    1993-01-01

    Exposure to foodborne chemicals is often estimated using the average consumption pattern in the human population. To protect the human population instead of the average individual, however, interindividual variability in consumption behaviour must be taken into account. This report shows how food

  5. The Impacts of Exposure to Environmental Risk on Physical and Mental Health in a Small Geographic Community in Houston, TX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansom, Garett; Parras, Juan; Parras, Ana; Nieto, Yudith; Arellano, Yvette; Berke, Philip; McDonald, Thomas; Shipp, Eva; Horney, Jennifer A

    2017-08-01

    Previous research has shown that communities with low average socioeconomic status (SES) and majority minority populations are more likely to be exposed to industrial buildings, waste facilities, and poor infrastructure compared to white communities with higher average SES. While some studies have demonstrated linkages between exposures to specific environmental contaminates within these communities and negative health outcomes, little research has analyzed the effects of environmental contaminants on the mental and physical health of these populations. A cross-sectional survey collected data from residents of Manchester, a small neighborhood in Houston, TX, that is characterized by industrial sites, unimproved infrastructure, nuisance flooding, and poor air quality. Our study (N = 109) utilized the 12 item Short Form Health Survey version 2 (SF12v2) to assess the general mental and physical health of the community. The community as a whole had reduced physical health scores compared to U.S. national averages. The time residents had lived in the neighborhood was also correlated with a reported reduction in physical health scores (r2 = 0.136; p-value <0.001). The association between time lived in the neighborhood and poorer health scores remained after adjusting for age, race, and gender (coef = -0.27, p-value <0.001). Mental health scores were within national averages and time spent living in the neighborhood did not appear to negatively impact respondent's mental health scores. These findings point to the need for more research to determine the potential for additive physical and mental health impacts in long-term residents in neighborhoods characterized by environmental justice issues.

  6. Distributed numerical rainfall-runoff modelling in an arid region using Thematic Mapper data and a geographical information system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharma, K.D.; Menenti, M.; Huygen, J.; Fernandez, P.C.

    1996-01-01

    A transient one-dimensional finite-difference model describing the partitioning of precipitation between surface run-off, soil moisture storage and deep percolation, through the coupling of saturated and unsaturated zones, has been implemented in a geographical information system including data on v

  7. Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olanrewaju Lawal

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs. Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

  8. Probability-summation model of multiple laser-exposure effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menendez, A R; Cheney, F E; Zuclich, J A; Crump, P

    1993-11-01

    A probability-summation model is introduced to provide quantitative criteria for discriminating independent from interactive effects of multiple laser exposures on biological tissue. Data that differ statistically from predictions of the probability-summation model indicate the action of sensitizing (synergistic/positive) or desensitizing (hardening/negative) biophysical interactions. Interactions are indicated when response probabilities vary with changes in the spatial or temporal separation of exposures. In the absence of interactions, probability-summation parsimoniously accounts for "cumulative" effects. Data analyzed using the probability-summation model show instances of both sensitization and desensitization of retinal tissue by laser exposures. Other results are shown to be consistent with probability-summation. The relevance of the probability-summation model to previous laser-bioeffects studies, models, and safety standards is discussed and an appeal is made for improved empirical estimates of response probabilities for single exposures.

  9. An improved representation of geographically isolated wetlands in a watershed-scale hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), defined as wetlands surrounded by uplands, provide an array of ecosystem goods and services. Within the United States, federal regulatory protections for GIWs are contingent, in part, on the quantification of their singular or aggregate ef...

  10. Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Sayler, Kristi L.; Quenzer, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

  11. Comparison of modeling approaches to prioritize chemicals based on estimates of exposure and exposure potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jade; Arnot, Jon A.; Jolliet, Olivier; Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Isukapalli, Sastry; Dasgupta, Surajit; Pandian, Muhilan; Wambaugh, John; Egeghy, Peter; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2014-01-01

    While only limited data are available to characterize the potential toxicity of over 8 million commercially available chemical substances, there is even less information available on the exposure and use-scenarios that are required to link potential toxicity to human and ecological health outcomes. Recent improvements and advances such as high throughput data gathering, high performance computational capabilities, and predictive chemical inherency methodology make this an opportune time to develop an exposure-based prioritization approach that can systematically utilize and link the asymmetrical bodies of knowledge for hazard and exposure. In response to the US EPA’s need to develop novel approaches and tools for rapidly prioritizing chemicals, a “Challenge” was issued to several exposure model developers to aid the understanding of current systems in a broader sense and to assist the US EPA’s effort to develop an approach comparable to other international efforts. A common set of chemicals were prioritized under each current approach. The results are presented herein along with a comparative analysis of the rankings of the chemicals based on metrics of exposure potential or actual exposure estimates. The analysis illustrates the similarities and differences across the domains of information incorporated in each modeling approach. The overall findings indicate a need to reconcile exposures from diffuse, indirect sources (far-field) with exposures from directly, applied chemicals in consumer products or resulting from the presence of a chemical in a microenvironment like a home or vehicle. Additionally, the exposure scenario, including the mode of entry into the environment (i.e. through air, water or sediment) appears to be an important determinant of the level of agreement between modeling approaches. PMID:23707726

  12. Conceptual model for assessment of inhalation exposure to manufactured nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schneider, T.; Brouwer, D.H.; Koponen, I.K.; Jensen, K.A.; Fransman, W.; Duuren-Stuurman, B. van; Tongeren, M. van; Tielemans, E.

    2011-01-01

    As workplace air measurements of manufactured nanoparticles are relatively expensive to conduct, models can be helpful for a first tier assessment of exposure. A conceptual model was developed to give a framework for such models. The basis for the model is an analysis of the fate and underlying

  13. Squares of different sizes: effect of geographical projection on model parameter estimates in species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budic, Lara; Didenko, Gregor; Dormann, Carsten F

    2016-01-01

    In species distribution analyses, environmental predictors and distribution data for large spatial extents are often available in long-lat format, such as degree raster grids. Long-lat projections suffer from unequal cell sizes, as a degree of longitude decreases in length from approximately 110 km at the equator to 0 km at the poles. Here we investigate whether long-lat and equal-area projections yield similar model parameter estimates, or result in a consistent bias. We analyzed the environmental effects on the distribution of 12 ungulate species with a northern distribution, as models for these species should display the strongest effect of projectional distortion. Additionally we choose four species with entirely continental distributions to investigate the effect of incomplete cell coverage at the coast. We expected that including model weights proportional to the actual cell area should compensate for the observed bias in model coefficients, and similarly that using land coverage of a cell should decrease bias in species with coastal distribution. As anticipated, model coefficients were different between long-lat and equal-area projections. Having progressively smaller and a higher number of cells with increasing latitude influenced the importance of parameters in models, increased the sample size for the northernmost parts of species ranges, and reduced the subcell variability of those areas. However, this bias could be largely removed by weighting long-lat cells by the area they cover, and marginally by correcting for land coverage. Overall we found little effect of using long-lat rather than equal-area projections in our analysis. The fitted relationship between environmental parameters and occurrence probability differed only very little between the two projection types. We still recommend using equal-area projections to avoid possible bias. More importantly, our results suggest that the cell area and the proportion of a cell covered by land should be

  14. A conceptual model of the automated credibility assessment of the volunteered geographic information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idris, N. H.; Jackson, M. J.; Ishak, M. H. I.

    2014-02-01

    The use of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in collecting, sharing and disseminating geospatially referenced information on the Web is increasingly common. The potentials of this localized and collective information have been seen to complement the maintenance process of authoritative mapping data sources and in realizing the development of Digital Earth. The main barrier to the use of this data in supporting this bottom up approach is the credibility (trust), completeness, accuracy, and quality of both the data input and outputs generated. The only feasible approach to assess these data is by relying on an automated process. This paper describes a conceptual model of indicators (parameters) and practical approaches to automated assess the credibility of information contributed through the VGI including map mashups, Geo Web and crowd - sourced based applications. There are two main components proposed to be assessed in the conceptual model - metadata and data. The metadata component comprises the indicator of the hosting (websites) and the sources of data / information. The data component comprises the indicators to assess absolute and relative data positioning, attribute, thematic, temporal and geometric correctness and consistency. This paper suggests approaches to assess the components. To assess the metadata component, automated text categorization using supervised machine learning is proposed. To assess the correctness and consistency in the data component, we suggest a matching validation approach using the current emerging technologies from Linked Data infrastructures and using third party reviews validation. This study contributes to the research domain that focuses on the credibility, trust and quality issues of data contributed by web citizen providers.

  15. CEM-Consumer Exposure Model Download and Install Instructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    CEM contains a combination of models and default parameters which are used to estimate inhalation, dermal, and oral exposures to consumer products and articles for a wide variety of product and article use categories.

  16. Micro-geographical variation in exposure to Schistosoma mansoni and malaria, and exacerbation of splenomegaly in Kenyan school-aged children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimani Gachuhi

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Schistosoma mansoni and Plasmodium falciparum are common infections of school aged children in Kenya. They both cause enlargement of the spleen, but their relative contribution to the condition of splenomegaly remains unknown in areas where both infections are endemic. Here, we have investigated whether relatively high exposure to both infections has a clinically measurable effect on this condition. Methods 96 children aged 6–16 years living along a ten kilometre stretch and within 4 km south of a river that is a source of both S. mansoni and malaria infections were examined clinically for splenomegaly along the mid clavicular line (MCL and mid axillary line (MAL. The survey was conducted outside the malaria transmission season. The consistency of the organ was recorded as soft, firm or hard. Mapping of the locations of houses and the course of the river was undertaken. Egg counts were mapped at the household level, as were IgG3 responses to Plasmodium falciparum schizont antigen (anti-Pfs IgG3, in order to identify areas with relatively high exposure to both infections, either infection or neither infection. ANOVA was used to test for differences in egg counts, IgG3 levels and the magnitude of spleen enlargement between these areas. Results 4 contiguous sectors were identified, one where anti-Pfs IgG3 responses and S. mansoni egg counts were both high, one where only anti-Pfs IgG3 responses were high, one where only egg counts were high, and one where both anti-Pfs IgG3 responses and egg counts were low. Spleen MAL and MCL values were significantly higher amongst children from the sector with highest IgG3 levels and highest egg counts but similar amongst children from elsewhere. Both egg counts and anti-Pfs IgG3 responses were significantly higher in children with MAL values >=4 cm. Hardening of spleens was associated with proximity of domicile to the river. Conclusions Micro-geographical variation in exposure to S

  17. Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennant, David R

    2016-05-01

    European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.

  18. Comparing the ecological relevance of four wave exposure models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundblad, G.; Bekkby, T.; Isæus, M.; Nikolopoulos, A.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Rinde, E.

    2014-03-01

    Wave exposure is one of the main structuring forces in the marine environment. Methods that enable large scale quantification of environmental variables have become increasingly important for predicting marine communities in the context of spatial planning and coastal zone management. Existing methods range from cartographic solutions to numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and differ in the scale and spatial coverage of their outputs. Using a biological exposure index we compared the performance of four wave exposure models ranging from simple to more advanced techniques. All models were found to be related to the biological exposure index and their performance, measured as bootstrapped R2 distributions, overlapped. Qualitatively, there were differences in the spatial patterns indicating higher complexity with more advanced techniques. In order to create complex spatial patterns wave exposure models should include diffraction, especially in coastal areas rich in islands. The inclusion of wind strength and frequency, in addition to wind direction and bathymetry, further tended to increase the amount of explained variation. The large potential of high-resolution numerical models to explain the observed patterns of species distribution in complex coastal areas provide exciting opportunities for future research. Easy access to relevant wave exposure models will aid large scale habitat classification systems and the continuously growing field of marine species distribution modelling, ultimately serving marine spatial management and planning.

  19. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  20. Modelling the geographical distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Bolivia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chammartin, Frédérique; Scholte, Ronaldo G C; Malone, John B; Bavia, Mara E; Nieto, Prixia; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2013-05-25

    The prevalence of infection with the three common soil-transmitted helminths (i.e. Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm) in Bolivia is among the highest in Latin America. However, the spatial distribution and burden of soil-transmitted helminthiasis are poorly documented. We analysed historical survey data using Bayesian geostatistical models to identify determinants of the distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infections, predict the geographical distribution of infection risk, and assess treatment needs and costs in the frame of preventive chemotherapy. Rigorous geostatistical variable selection identified the most important predictors of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura, and hookworm transmission. Results show that precipitation during the wettest quarter above 400 mm favours the distribution of A. lumbricoides. Altitude has a negative effect on T. trichiura. Hookworm is sensitive to temperature during the coldest month. We estimate that 38.0%, 19.3%, and 11.4% of the Bolivian population is infected with A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura, and hookworm, respectively. Assuming independence of the three infections, 48.4% of the population is infected with any soil-transmitted helminth. Empirical-based estimates, according to treatment recommendations by the World Health Organization, suggest a total of 2.9 million annualised treatments for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis in Bolivia. We provide estimates of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Bolivia based on high-resolution spatial prediction and an innovative variable selection approach. However, the scarcity of the data suggests that a national survey is required for more accurate mapping that will govern spatial targeting of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control.

  1. Developing a simplified geographical information system approach to dilute lahar modelling for rapid hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnell, A. R.; Phillips, J. C.; Barclay, J.; Herd, R. A.; Lovett, A. A.; Cole, P. D.

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we present a geographical information system (GIS)-based approach to enable the estimation of lahar features important to rapid hazard assessment (including flow routes, velocities and travel times). Our method represents a simplified first stage in extending the utility of widely used existing GIS-based inundation models, such as LAHARZ, to provide estimates of flow speeds. LAHARZ is used to determine the spatial distribution of a lahar of constant volume, and for a given cell in a GIS grid, a single-direction flow routing technique incorporating the effect of surface roughness directs the flow according to steepest descent. The speed of flow passing through a cell is determined from coupling the flow depth, change in elevation and roughness using Manning's formula, and in areas where there is little elevation difference, flow is routed to locally maximum increase in velocity. Application of this methodology to lahars on Montserrat, West Indies, yielded support for this GIS-based approach as a hazard assessment tool through tests on small volume (5,000-125,000 m3) dilute lahars (consistent with application of Manning's law). Dominant flow paths were mapped, and for the first time in this study area, velocities (magnitudes and spatial distribution) and average travel times were estimated for a range of lahar volumes. Flow depth approximations were also made using (modified) LAHARZ, and these refined the input to Manning's formula. Flow depths were verified within an order of magnitude by field observations, and velocity predictions were broadly consistent with proxy measurements and published data. Forecasts from this coupled method can operate on short to mid-term timescales for hazard management. The methodology has potential to provide a rapid preliminary hazard assessment in similar systems where data acquisition may be difficult.

  2. Conceptual model for assessment of inhalation exposure: Defining modifying factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tielemans, E.; Schneider, T.; Goede, H.; Tischer, M.; Warren, N.; Kromhout, H.; Tongeren, M. van; Hemmen, J. van; Cherrie, J.W.

    2008-01-01

    The present paper proposes a source-receptor model to schematically describe inhalation exposure to help understand the complex processes leading to inhalation of hazardous substances. The model considers a stepwise transfer of a contaminant from the source to the receptor. The conceptual model is c

  3. A model of food reward learning with dynamic reward exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross A Hammond

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The process of conditioning via reward learning is highly relevant to the study of food choice and obesity. Learning is itself shaped by environmental exposure, with the potential for such exposures to vary substantially across individuals and across place and time. In this paper, we use computational techniques to extend a well-validated standard model of reward learning, introducing both substantial heterogeneity and dynamic reward exposures. We then apply the extended model to a food choice context. The model produces a variety of individual behaviors and population-level patterns which are not evident from the traditional formulation, but which offer potential insights for understanding food reward learning and obesity. These include a lock-in effect, through which early exposure can strongly shape later reward valuation. We discuss potential implications of our results for the study and prevention of obesity, for the reward learning field, and for future experimental and computational work.

  4. A geographically weighted regression model for geothermal potential assessment in mediterranean cultural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Arpa, S.; Zaccarelli, N.; Bruno, D. E.; Leucci, G.; Uricchio, V. F.; Zurlini, G.

    2012-04-01

    Geothermal heat can be used directly in many applications (agro-industrial processes, sanitary hot water production, heating/cooling systems, etc.). These applications respond to energetic and environmental sustainability criteria, ensuring substantial energy savings with low environmental impacts. In particular, in Mediterranean cultural landscapes the exploitation of geothermal energy offers a valuable alternative compared to other exploitation systems more land-consuming and visual-impact. However, low enthalpy geothermal energy applications at regional scale, require careful design and planning to fully exploit benefits and reduce drawbacks. We propose a first example of application of a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) for the modeling of geothermal potential in the Apulia Region (South Italy) by integrating hydrological (e.g. depth to water table, water speed and temperature), geological-geotechnical (e.g. lithology, thermal conductivity) parameters and land-use indicators. The GWR model can effectively cope with data quality, spatial anisotropy, lack of stationarity and presence of discontinuities in the underlying data maps. The geothermal potential assessment required a good knowledge of the space-time variation of the numerous parameters related to the status of geothermal resource, a contextual analysis of spatial and environmental features, as well as the presence and nature of regulations or infrastructures constraints. We create an ad hoc geodatabase within ArcGIS 10 collecting relevant data and performing a quality assessment. Cross-validation shows high level of consistency of the spatial local models, as well as error maps can depict areas of lower reliability. Based on low enthalpy geothermal potential map created, a first zoning of the study area is proposed, considering four level of possible exploitation. Such zoning is linked and refined by the actual legal constraints acting at regional or province level as enforced by the regional

  5. Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

    2016-07-06

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

  6. Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

    2016-07-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

  7. A general model for estimation of daily global solar radiation using air temperatures and site geographic parameters in Southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mao-Fen; Fan, Li; Liu, Hong-Bin; Guo, Peng-Tao; Wu, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Estimation of daily global solar radiation (Rs) from routinely measured temperature data has been widely developed and used in many different areas of the world. However, many of them are site specific. It is assumed that a general model for estimating daily Rs using temperature variables and geographical parameters could be achieved within a climatic region. This paper made an attempt to develop a general model to estimate daily Rs using routinely measured temperature data (maximum (Tmax, °C) and minimum (Tmin, °C) temperatures) and site geographical parameters (latitude (La, °N), longitude (Ld, °E) and altitude (Alt, m)) for Guizhou and Sichuan basin of southwest China, which was classified into the hot summer and cold winter climate zone. Comparison analysis was carried out through statistics indicators such as root mean squared error of percentage (RMSE%), modeling efficiency (ME), coefficient of residual mass (CRM) and mean bias error (MBE). Site-dependent daily Rs estimating models were calibrated and validated using long-term observed weather data. A general formula was then obtained from site geographical parameters and the better fit site-dependent models with mean RMSE% of 38.68%, mean MBE of 0.381 MJ m-2 d-1, mean CRM of 0.04 and mean ME value of 0.713.

  8. Simplified pregnant woman models for the fetus exposure assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jala, Marjorie; Conil, Emmanuelle; Varsier, Nadège; Wiart, Joe; Hadjem, Abdelhamid; Moulines, Éric; Lévy-Leduc, Céline

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we introduce a study that we carried out in order to validate the use of a simplified pregnant woman model for the assessment of the fetus exposure to radio frequency waves. This simplified model, based on the use of a homogeneous tissue to replace most of the inner organs of the virtual mother, would allow us to deal with many issues that are raised because of the lack of pregnant woman models for numerical dosimetry. Using specific absorption rate comparisons, we show that this model could be used to estimate the fetus exposure to plane waves.

  9. Modeling Air Pollution Exposure Metrics for the Diabetes and Environment Panel Study (DEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air pollution health studies of fine particulate matter (PM) often use outdoor concentrations as exposure surrogates. To improve exposure assessments, we developed and evaluated an exposure model for individuals (EMI), which predicts five tiers of individual-level exposure metric...

  10. Hydrologic connectivity between geographically isolated wetlands and surface water systems: A review of select modeling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather E. Golden; Charles R. Lane; Devendra M. Amatya; Karl W. Bandilla; Hadas Raanan Kiperwas Kiperwas; Christopher D. Knightes; Herbert. Ssegane

    2014-01-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIW), depressional landscape features entirely surrounded by upland areas, provide a wide range of ecological functions and ecosystem services for human well-being. Current and future ecosystem management and decision-making rely on a solid scientific understanding of how hydrologic processes affect these important GIW services and...

  11. The art of occupational exposure modelling - development and evaluation of generic inhalation exposure models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schinkel, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    When working with chemical substances, workers might be exposed to chemical contaminants. In a risk assessment the exposure is compared with a toxicological limit value. In a risk assessment the toxicological effect of a chemical substance is compared with the exposure to the chemical in order to

  12. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  13. Simple Urban Simulation Atop Complicated Models: Multi-Scale Equation-Free Computing of Sprawl Using Geographic Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zou

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Reconciling competing desires to build urban models that can be simple and complicated is something of a grand challenge for urban simulation. It also prompts difficulties in many urban policy situations, such as urban sprawl, where simple, actionable ideas may need to be considered in the context of the messily complex and complicated urban processes and phenomena that work within cities. In this paper, we present a novel architecture for achieving both simple and complicated realizations of urban sprawl in simulation. Fine-scale simulations of sprawl geography are run using geographic automata to represent the geographical drivers of sprawl in intricate detail and over fine resolutions of space and time. We use Equation-Free computing to deploy population as a coarse observable of sprawl, which can be leveraged to run automata-based models as short-burst experiments within a meta-simulation framework.

  14. Modelling of skin exposure from distributed sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fogh, C.L.; Andersson, Kasper Grann

    2000-01-01

    A simple model of indoor air pollution concentrations was used together with experimental results on deposition velocities to skin to calculate the skin dose from an outdoor plume of contaminants, The primary pathway was considered to be direct deposition to the skin from a homogeneously distribu...... distributed air source. The model has been used to show that skin deposition was a significant dose contributor for example when compared to inhalation dose. (C) 2000 British Occupational Hygiene Society, Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  15. Efficient workload management in geographically distributed data centers leveraging autoregressive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altomare, Albino; Cesario, Eugenio; Mastroianni, Carlo

    2016-10-01

    The opportunity of using Cloud resources on a pay-as-you-go basis and the availability of powerful data centers and high bandwidth connections are speeding up the success and popularity of Cloud systems, which is making on-demand computing a common practice for enterprises and scientific communities. The reasons for this success include natural business distribution, the need for high availability and disaster tolerance, the sheer size of their computational infrastructure, and/or the desire to provide uniform access times to the infrastructure from widely distributed client sites. Nevertheless, the expansion of large data centers is resulting in a huge rise of electrical power consumed by hardware facilities and cooling systems. The geographical distribution of data centers is becoming an opportunity: the variability of electricity prices, environmental conditions and client requests, both from site to site and with time, makes it possible to intelligently and dynamically (re)distribute the computational workload and achieve as diverse business goals as: the reduction of costs, energy consumption and carbon emissions, the satisfaction of performance constraints, the adherence to Service Level Agreement established with users, etc. This paper proposes an approach that helps to achieve the business goals established by the data center administrators. The workload distribution is driven by a fitness function, evaluated for each data center, which weighs some key parameters related to business objectives, among which, the price of electricity, the carbon emission rate, the balance of load among the data centers etc. For example, the energy costs can be reduced by using a "follow the moon" approach, e.g. by migrating the workload to data centers where the price of electricity is lower at that time. Our approach uses data about historical usage of the data centers and data about environmental conditions to predict, with the help of regressive models, the values of the

  16. Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Brink, Van Den Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability

  17. Modelling and understanding primary health care accessibility and utilization in rural South Africa: an exploration using a geographical information system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanser, Frank; Gijsbertsen, Brice; Herbst, Kobus

    2006-08-01

    Physical access to health care affects a large array of health outcomes, yet meaningfully estimating physical access remains elusive in many developing country contexts where conventional geographical techniques are often not appropriate. We interviewed (and geographically positioned) 23,000 homesteads regarding clinic usage in the Hlabisa health sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used a cost analysis within a geographical information system to estimate mean travel time (at any given location) to clinic and to derive the clinic catchments. The model takes into account the proportion of people likely to be using public transport (as a function of estimated walking time to clinic), the quality and distribution of the road network and natural barriers, and was calibrated using reported travel times. We used the model to investigate differences in rural, urban and peri-urban usage of clinics by homesteads in the study area and to quantify the effect of physical access to clinic on usage. We were able to predict the reported clinic used with an accuracy of 91%. The median travel time to nearest clinic is 81 min and 65% of homesteads travel 1h or more to attend the nearest clinic. There was a significant logistic decline in usage with increasing travel time (p rural/peri-urban counterparts, respectively, after controlling for systematic differences in travel time to clinic. The estimated median travel time to the district hospital is 170 min. The methodology constitutes a framework for modelling physical access to clinics in many developing country settings.

  18. Predicting the potential geographic distribution of cotton mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis in India based on MAXENT ecological niche model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fand, Babasaheb B; Kumar, Mahesh; Kamble, Ankush L

    2014-09-01

    Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley has recently emerged as a serious insect pest of cotton in India. This study demonstrates the use of Maxent algorithm for modeling the potential geographic distribution of P. solenopsis in India with presence-only data. Predictions were made based on the analysis of the relationship between 111 occurrence records for P. solenopsis and the corresponding current and future climate data defined on the study area. The climate data from worldclim database for current (1950-2000) and future (SRES A2 emission scenario for 2050) conditions were used. DIVA-GIS, an open source software for conducting spatial analysis was used for mapping the predictions from Maxent. The algorithm provided reasonable estimates of the species range indicating better discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence in India under both present and future climatic conditions. The fit for the model as measured by AUC was high, with value of 0.930 for the training data and 0.895 for the test data, indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A Jackknife test for variable importance indicated that mean temperature of coldest quarter with highest gain value was the most important environmental variable determining the potential geographic distribution of P. solenopsis. The approaches used for delineating the ecological niche and prediction of potential geographic distribution are described briefly. Possible applications and limitations of the present modeling approach in future research and as a decision making tool in integrated pest management are discussed.

  19. Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

    2017-04-08

    An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

  20. Geographic Tongue

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... cases, most often related to eating hot, spicy, salty or acidic foods Many people with geographic tongue ... sensitive oral tissues, including: Hot, spicy, acidic or salty foods Tobacco products Toothpaste that contains tartar-control ...

  1. Investigating the geographical heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES): A potential role of indoor exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin; Guo, Xuefei; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong

    2013-08-01

    This study gives the first-time evidence for China that the geographical heterogeneity of the acute effects of outdoor PM10 can be partially explained by differences in indoor exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin. We used data from the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES), which demonstrated a geographical heterogeneity of the acute effect of particulate air pollution (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 μm, or PM10) on mortality in 16 Chinese cities. Given that a large fraction of the exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin occurs indoors, we made the hypothesis that this heterogeneity might be partially explained by inter-city differences in indoor exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin. In our analysis, we estimated PM10 exposure coefficients (the change in the estimated personal exposure to PM10 of outdoor origin per unit change in outdoor PM10 concentration) in these 16 Chinese cities and examined their correlation with PM10 mortality coefficients (the increase in mortality associated with a given increase in the concentrations of outdoor PM10). We showed that the PM10 mortality coefficients and the PM10 exposure coefficients were significantly correlated, with an R-squared (R2) value of 0.549 (95% confidence interval: 0.201, 0.771; p values of the key input parameters, and close in value to estimations found in previous studies on similar subjects.

  2. Consumer exposure modelling under REACH: Assessing the defaults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltmanns, J; Neisel, F; Heinemeyer, G; Kaiser, E; Schneider, K

    2015-07-01

    Consumer exposure to chemicals from products and articles is rarely monitored. Since an assessment of consumer exposure has become particularly important under the European REACH Regulation, dedicated modelling approaches with exposure assessment tools are applied. The results of these tools are critically dependent on the default input values embedded in the tools. These inputs were therefore compiled for three lower tier tools (ECETOC TRA (version 3.0), EGRET and REACT)) and benchmarked against a higher tier tool (ConsExpo (version 4.1)). Mostly, conservative input values are used in the lower tier tools. Some cases were identified where the lower tier tools used less conservative values than ConsExpo. However, these deviations only rarely resulted in less conservative exposure estimates compared to ConsExpo, when tested in reference scenarios. This finding is mainly due to the conservatism of (a) the default value for the thickness of the product layer (with complete release of the substance) used for the prediction of dermal exposure and (b) the complete release assumed for volatile substances (i.e. substances with a vapour pressure ⩾10Pa) for inhalation exposure estimates. The examples demonstrate that care must be taken when changing critical defaults in order to retain conservative estimates of consumer exposure to chemicals.

  3. Superlinear and sublinear urban scaling in geographical network model of the city

    CERN Document Server

    Yakubo, K; Korošak, D

    2014-01-01

    Using a geographical scale-free network to describe relations between people in a city, we explain both superlinear and sublinear allometric scaling of urban indicators that quantify activities or performances of the city. The urban indicator $Y(N)$ of a city with the population size $N$ is analytically calculated by summing up all individual activities produced by person-to-person relationships. Our results show that the urban indicator scales superlinearly with the population, namely, $Y(N)\\propto N^{\\beta}$ with $\\beta>1$ if $Y(N)$ represents a creative productivity and the indicator scales sublinearly ($\\beta<1$) if $Y(N)$ is related to the degree of infrastructure development. These coincide with allometric scaling observed in real-world urban indicators. We also show how the scaling exponent $\\beta$ depends on the strength of the geographical constraint in the network formation.

  4. Inhibition of alcohol dehydrogenase after 2-propanol exposure in different geographic races of Drosophila mojavensis: lack of evidence for selection at the Adh-2 locus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiler, Edward; Reed, Laura K; Markow, Therese A

    2005-03-15

    High frequencies of the fast allele of alcohol dehydrogenase-2 (Adh-2F) are found in populations of Drosophila mojavensis that inhabit the Baja California peninsula (race BII) whereas the slow allele (Adh-2S) predominates at most other localities within the species' geographic range. Race BII flies utilize necrotic tissue of pitaya agria cactus (Stenocereus gummosus) which contains high levels of 2-propanol, whereas flies from most other localities utilize different cactus hosts in which 2-propanol levels are low. To test if 2-propanol acts as a selective force on Adh-2 genotype, or whether some other yet undetermined genetic factor is responsible, mature males of D. mojavensis lines derived from the Grand Canyon (race A) and Santa Catalina Island (race C), each with individuals homozygous for Adh-2F and Adh-2S, were exposed to 2-propanol for 24 h and ADH-2 specific activity was then determined on each genotype. Flies from five other localities homozygous for either the fast or slow allele also were examined. Results for all reported races of D. mojavensis were obtained. 2-propanol exposure inhibited ADH-2 specific activity in both genotypes from all localities, but inhibition was significantly less in two populations of race BII flies homozygous for Adh-2F. When F/F and S/S genotypes in flies from the same locality were compared, both genotypes showed high 2-propanol inhibition that was not statistically different, indicating that the F/F genotype alone does not provide a benefit against the inhibitory effects of 2-propanol. ADH-1 activity in female ovaries was inhibited less by 2-propanol than ADH-2. These results do not support the hypothesis that 2-propanol acts as a selective factor favoring the Adh-2F allele.

  5. Modelling exposure of mammalian predators to anticoagulant rodenticide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher John Topping

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Anticoagulant rodenticides (AR are a widespread and effective method of rodent control but there is concern about the impact these may have on non-target organisms, in particular secondary poisoning of rodent predators. Incidence and concentration of AR in free-living predators in Denmark is very high. We postulate that this is caused by widespread exposure due to widespread use of AR in Denmark in and around buildings. To investigate this theory a spatio-temporal model of AR use and mammalian predator distribution was created. This model was supported by data from an experimental study of mice as vectors of AR, and was used to evaluate likely impacts of restrictions imposed on AR use in Denmark banning the use of rodenticides for plant protection in woodlands and tree-crops. The model uses input based on frequencies and timings of baiting for rodent control for urban, rural and woodland locations and creates an exposure map based on spatio-temporal modelling of movement of mice-vectored AR (based on Apodemus flavicollis. Simulated predator territories are super-imposed over this exposure map to create an exposure index. Predictions from the model concur with field studies of AR prevalence both before and after the change in AR use. In most cases incidence of exposure to AR is predicted to be greater than 90%, although cessation of use in woodlots and Christmas tree plantations should reduce mean exposure concentrations. Model results suggest that the driver of high AR incidence in non-target small mammal predators is likely to be the pattern of use and not the distance AR is vectored. Reducing baiting frequency by 75% had different effects depending on the landscape simulated, but having a maximum of 12% reduction in exposure incidence, and in one landscape a maximum reduction of <2%. We discuss sources of uncertainty in the model and directions for future development of predictive models for environmental impact assessment of rodenticides. The

  6. Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models: Exploring Varying Geographic Scale and Magnitude in Associations Between the Built Environment and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Jonggyu; Sanchez-Vaznaugh, Emma V; Sánchez, Brisa N

    2016-03-15

    It is well known that associations between features of the built environment and health depend on the geographic scale used to construct environmental attributes. In the built environment literature, it has long been argued that geographic scales may vary across study locations. However, this hypothesized variation has not been systematically examined due to a lack of available statistical methods. We propose a hierarchical distributed-lag model (HDLM) for estimating the underlying overall shape of food environment-health associations as a function of distance from locations of interest. This method enables indirect assessment of relevant geographic scales and captures area-level heterogeneity in the magnitudes of associations, along with relevant distances within areas. The proposed model was used to systematically examine area-level variation in the association between availability of convenience stores around schools and children's weights. For this case study, body mass index (weight kg)/height (m)2) z scores (BMIz) for 7th grade children collected via California's 2001-2009 FitnessGram testing program were linked to a commercial database that contained locations of food outlets statewide. Findings suggested that convenience store availability may influence BMIz only in some places and at varying distances from schools. Future research should examine localized environmental or policy differences that may explain the heterogeneity in convenience store-BMIz associations.

  7. Generation of infant anatomical models for evaluating electromagnetic field exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Congsheng; Chen, Zhiye; Yang, Lei; Lv, Bin; Liu, Jianzhe; Varsier, Nadège; Hadjem, Abdelhamid; Wiart, Joe; Xie, Yi; Ma, Lin; Wu, Tongning

    2015-01-01

    Realistic anatomical modeling is essential in analyzing human exposure to electromagnetic fields. Infants have significant physical and anatomical differences compared with other age groups. However, few realistic infant models are available. In this work, we developed one 12-month-old male whole body model and one 17-month-old male head model from magnetic resonance images. The whole body and head models contained 28 and 30 tissues, respectively, at spatial resolution of 1 mm × 1 mm × 1 mm. Fewer identified tissues in the whole body model were a result of the low original image quality induced by the fast imaging sequence. The anatomical and physical parameters of the models were validated against findings in published literature (e.g., a maximum deviation as 18% in tissue mass was observed compared with the data from International Commission on Radiological Protection). Several typical exposure scenarios were realized for numerical simulation. Dosimetric comparison with various adult and child anatomical models was conducted. Significant differences in the physical and anatomical features between adult and child models demonstrated the importance of creating realistic infant models. Current safety guidelines for infant exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields may not be conservative.

  8. Parameterization Models for Pesticide Exposure via Crop Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie

    2012-01-01

    An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied......) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop......-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework’s physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results...

  9. Model of spacecraft atomic oxygen and solar exposure microenvironments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourassa, R. J.; Pippin, H. G.

    1993-01-01

    Computer models of environmental conditions in Earth orbit are needed for the following reasons: (1) derivation of material performance parameters from orbital test data, (2) evaluation of spacecraft hardware designs, (3) prediction of material service life, and (4) scheduling spacecraft maintenance. To meet these needs, Boeing has developed programs for modeling atomic oxygen (AO) and solar radiation exposures. The model allows determination of AO and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposures for spacecraft surfaces (1) in arbitrary orientations with respect to the direction of spacecraft motion, (2) overall ranges of solar conditions, and (3) for any mission duration. The models have been successfully applied to prediction of experiment environments on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and for analysis of selected hardware designs for deployment on other spacecraft. The work on these models has been reported at previous LDEF conferences. Since publication of these reports, a revision has been made to the AO calculation for LDEF, and further work has been done on the microenvironments model for solar exposure.

  10. Developing an Adaptive Exposure Model to Support the Generation of Country Disaster Risk Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Aubrecht, Christoph; Pita, Gonzalo; Pomonis, Antonios; Fane, Kayoum; Murray, Siobhan; Blankespoor, Brian

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic disaster risk profiles provide estimates of potential damage to property and life caused by adverse natural hazards. A Country Disaster Risk Profile (CDRP), which is a coarse level analysis, presents an estimate of risk at the national level. We define the exposure model in that context as a geo-referenced database of assets at risk at a 1-km grid level, capturing important attributes such as geographical location, urban/rural classification, type of occupancy (e.g. residential and non-residential), building typology (e.g. wood, steel, masonry), and aggregated asset value. We present here a sensitivity analysis of key parameters of the exposure model developed in relation to CDRPs. Specifically, we analyse the sensitivity in characterisation of built up areas, and associated disaggregation of assets. We evaluate this by comparing datasets such as Modis 500m (2010), Landscan (2012), BuREF (2012), and GUF (2013). We also present a method to integrate exterior wall and roof type typologies to assess vulnerability of buildings to both earthquakes and hurricanes. Finally, developments in determining replacement value of buildings from national and sub national datasets are presented. Integration of all these developments together produces an exposure model. The sensitivity of such a model output is even more crucial in risk analysis of Small Island States (SIS), and we highlight this with case studies from the Caribbean region. This resultant gridded exposure database could be convolved with hazard and vulnerability components to create CDRPs for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood and windstorms. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

  11. Geographical analysis of parking land use in Genaveh applying AHP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Hosseini Lagha

    2012-01-01

    for fire extinguisher stations using network analysis and A.H.P. Model, Case study: city of Zanjan, Mapasia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Behbahani, Hamid., (1995, theory and application of traffic engineering, transportation and traffic organization of Tehran, Tehran.Pour Ismail, Alireza (1995, locate and parking design class, MS Thesis, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology. Rezai, Mortezi., (1990, Culture of traffic, Senobar Publication, Tehran. Zekroallhy, Mohammad., (2001, locate and pricing methodology cumulative Parking, MS Thesis, School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology.Seyed Mousavi, Sayed jalal. (2007, geographical analysis of the general problems of public parking in the city of Isfahan. to help Taghvai, M. and Beik Mohammadi, Hassan, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Isfahan. Shahi, Jalil., (1997, Traffic Engineering, Tehran University Press. Shia, Esmaeel,. Nourian, Farshad., Shams, Shahroz, (2009, locate public parking in the neighborhood of Khani-abad area of Tehran , 12 region with using GIS and AHP, 8th Civil Engineering Congress, Tehran. Talebi,Zhaleh and Daee nejad,Farhad., (1997, Design criteria for multi-storey car park, Building and Housing Research Center. Ghajar, Nemat., Shahab, Himan., (2009, using algorithms locate municipal parking GIS, Spatial Information Systems National Conference, Tehran. Ghazi Askari Naini, Arman., Vrshvsaz, Masood., (2004, provide a good way to locate public parking using GIS, MS Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University . Karimi vahid, and, Ebadi, Hamid. and Ahmadi, Salman., (2007, Modeling locate locate parking facilities in urban areas using GIS with emphasis on class, Geomatics 86. Ghanbari .Hakimeh(2007 Distribution and functionion of class public parking in transportat network with use og Gis . 9th congres of traffic and transportation ,Tehran, Iran Motkan,Ali akbar, Shakiba Alireza and pour ali Sayed Hossein

  12. Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

  13. Probabilistic modeling of financial exposure to flood in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncoulon, David; Quantin, Antoine; Leblois, Etienne

    2014-05-01

    CCR is a French reinsurance company which offers natural catastrophe covers with the State guarantee. Within this framework, CCR develops its own models to assess its financial exposure to floods, droughts, earthquakes and other perils, and thus the exposure of insurers and the French State. A probabilistic flood model has been developed in order to estimate the financial exposure of the Nat Cat insurance market to flood events, depending on their annual occurrence probability. This presentation is organized in two parts. The first part is dedicated to the development of a flood hazard and damage model (ARTEMIS). The model calibration and validation on historical events are then described. In the second part, the coupling of ARTEMIS with two generators of probabilistic events is achieved: a stochastic flow generator and a stochastic spatialized precipitation generator, adapted from the SAMPO model developed by IRSTEA. The analysis of the complementary nature of these two generators is proposed: the first one allows generating floods on the French hydrological station network; the second allows simulating surface water runoff and Small River floods, even on ungauged rivers. Thus, the simulation of thousands of non-occured, but possible events allows us to provide for the first time an estimate of the financial exposure to flooding in France at different scales (commune, department, country) and from different points of view (hazard, vulnerability and damages).

  14. Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedrow, Christine Atkins

    The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and

  15. Geographically weighted regression for modelling the accessibility to the public hospital network in Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Martínez Bascuñán

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Accessibility models in transport geography based on geographic information systems have proven to be an effective method in determining spatial inequalities associated with public health. This work aims to model the spatial accessibility from populated areas within the Concepción metropolitan area (CMA, the second largest city in Chile. The city’s public hospital network is taken into consideration with special reference to socio-regional inequalities. The use of geographically weighted regression (GWR and ordinary least squares (OLS for modelling accessibility with socioeconomic and transport variables is proposed. The explanatory variables investigated are: illiterate population, rural housing, alternative housing, homes with a motorised vehicle, public transport routes, and connectivity. Our results identify that approximately 4.1% of the population have unfavourable or very unfavourable accessibility to public hospitals, which correspond to rural areas located south of CMA. Application of a local GWR model (0.87 R2 adjusted helped to improve the settings over the use of traditional OLS methods (multiple regression (0.67 R2 adjusted and to find the spatial distribution of both coefficients of the explanatory variables, demonstrating the local significance of the model. Thus, accessibility studies have enormous potential to contribute to the development of public health and transport policies in turn to achieve equality in spatial accessibility to specialised health care.

  16. A Novel Petri Nets-Based Modeling Method for the Interaction between the Sensor and the Geographic Environment in Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng; Xu, Yuetong; Chou, Jarong

    2016-01-01

    The service of sensor device in Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is the extension of traditional Web services. Through the sensor network, the service of sensor device can communicate directly with the entity in the geographic environment, and even impact the geographic entity directly. The interaction between the sensor device in ESNs and geographic environment is very complex, and the interaction modeling is a challenging problem. This paper proposed a novel Petri Nets-based modeling method for the interaction between the sensor device and the geographic environment. The feature of the sensor device service in ESNs is more easily affected by the geographic environment than the traditional Web service. Therefore, the response time, the fault-tolerant ability and the resource consumption become important factors in the performance of the whole sensor application system. Thus, this paper classified IoT services as Sensing services and Controlling services according to the interaction between IoT service and geographic entity, and classified GIS services as data services and processing services. Then, this paper designed and analyzed service algebra and Colored Petri Nets model to modeling the geo-feature, IoT service, GIS service and the interaction process between the sensor and the geographic enviroment. At last, the modeling process is discussed by examples. PMID:27681730

  17. A Novel Petri Nets-Based Modeling Method for the Interaction between the Sensor and the Geographic Environment in Emerging Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The service of sensor device in Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs is the extension of traditional Web services. Through the sensor network, the service of sensor device can communicate directly with the entity in the geographic environment, and even impact the geographic entity directly. The interaction between the sensor device in ESNs and geographic environment is very complex, and the interaction modeling is a challenging problem. This paper proposed a novel Petri Nets-based modeling method for the interaction between the sensor device and the geographic environment. The feature of the sensor device service in ESNs is more easily affected by the geographic environment than the traditional Web service. Therefore, the response time, the fault-tolerant ability and the resource consumption become important factors in the performance of the whole sensor application system. Thus, this paper classified IoT services as Sensing services and Controlling services according to the interaction between IoT service and geographic entity, and classified GIS services as data services and processing services. Then, this paper designed and analyzed service algebra and Colored Petri Nets model to modeling the geo-feature, IoT service, GIS service and the interaction process between the sensor and the geographic enviroment. At last, the modeling process is discussed by examples.

  18. A Novel Petri Nets-Based Modeling Method for the Interaction between the Sensor and the Geographic Environment in Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng; Xu, Yuetong; Chou, Jarong

    2016-09-25

    The service of sensor device in Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is the extension of traditional Web services. Through the sensor network, the service of sensor device can communicate directly with the entity in the geographic environment, and even impact the geographic entity directly. The interaction between the sensor device in ESNs and geographic environment is very complex, and the interaction modeling is a challenging problem. This paper proposed a novel Petri Nets-based modeling method for the interaction between the sensor device and the geographic environment. The feature of the sensor device service in ESNs is more easily affected by the geographic environment than the traditional Web service. Therefore, the response time, the fault-tolerant ability and the resource consumption become important factors in the performance of the whole sensor application system. Thus, this paper classified IoT services as Sensing services and Controlling services according to the interaction between IoT service and geographic entity, and classified GIS services as data services and processing services. Then, this paper designed and analyzed service algebra and Colored Petri Nets model to modeling the geo-feature, IoT service, GIS service and the interaction process between the sensor and the geographic enviroment. At last, the modeling process is discussed by examples.

  19. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of ne

  20. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  1. Population-based nutrikinetic modeling of polyphenol exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Velzen, E.J.J.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Grün, C.H.; Jacobs, D.M.; Eilers, P.H.C.; Mulder, Th.P.; Foltz, M.; Garczarek, U.; Kemperman, R.; Vaughan, E. E.; van Duynhoven, J.P.M.; Smilde, A.K.

    2014-01-01

    The beneficial health effects of fruits and vegetables have been attributed to their polyphenol content. These compounds undergo many bioconversions in the body. Modeling polyphenol exposure of humans upon intake is a prerequisite for understanding the modulating effect of the food matrix and the co

  2. Population-based nutrikinetic modelling of phytochemical exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velzen, van E.J.J.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Grün, C.H.; Duynhoven, van J.P.M.; Jacobs, D.M.; Eilers, P.H.C.; Mulder, T.P.; Foltz, M.; Garczarek, U.; Kemperman, R.; Vaughan, E.E.; Smilde, A.K.

    2014-01-01

    The beneficial health effects of fruits and vegetables have been attributed to their polyphenol content. These compounds undergo many bioconversions in the body. Modeling polyphenol exposure of humans upon intake is a prerequisite for understanding the modulating effect of the food matrix and the co

  3. Development of land-use regression models for exposure assessment to ultrafine particles in Rome, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattani, Giorgio; Gaeta, Alessandra; Di Menno di Bucchianico, Alessandro; De Santis, Antonella; Gaddi, Raffaela; Cusano, Mariacarmela; Ancona, Carla; Badaloni, Chiara; Forastiere, Francesco; Gariazzo, Claudio; Sozzi, Roberto; Inglessis, Marco; Silibello, Camillo; Salvatori, Elisabetta; Manes, Fausto; Cesaroni, Giulia

    2017-05-01

    The health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs) are poorly understood. Data on spatial contrasts in ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) concentrations are needed with fine resolution. This study aimed to assess the spatial variability of total particle number concentrations (PNC, a proxy for UFPs) in the city of Rome, Italy, using land use regression (LUR) models, and the correspondent exposure of population here living. PNC were measured using condensation particle counters at the building facade of 28 homes throughout the city. Three 7-day monitoring periods were carried out during cold, warm and intermediate seasons. Geographic Information System predictor variables, with buffers of varying size, were evaluated to model spatial variations of PNC. A stepwise forward selection procedure was used to develop a ;base; linear regression model according to the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects project methodology. Other variables were then included in more enhanced models and their capability of improving model performance was evaluated. Four LUR models were developed. Local variation in UFPs in the study area can be largely explained by the ratio of traffic intensity and distance to the nearest major road. The best model (adjusted R2 = 0.71; root mean square error = ±1,572 particles/cm³, leave one out cross validated R2 = 0.68) was achieved by regressing building and street configuration variables against residual from the ;base; model, which added 3% more to the total variance explained. Urban green and population density in a 5,000 m buffer around each home were also relevant predictors. The spatial contrast in ambient PNC across the large conurbation of Rome, was successfully assessed. The average exposure of subjects living in the study area was 16,006 particles/cm³ (SD 2165 particles/cm³, range: 11,075-28,632 particles/cm³). A total of 203,886 subjects (16%) lives in Rome within 50 m from a high traffic road and they

  4. Parameterization models for pesticide exposure via crop consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Juraske, Ronnie; Shaddick, Gavin; Itoiz, Eva Sevigné; Friedrich, Rainer; Jolliet, Olivier

    2012-12-04

    An approach for estimating human exposure to pesticides via consumption of six important food crops is presented that can be used to extend multimedia models applied in health risk and life cycle impact assessment. We first assessed the variation of model output (pesticide residues per kg applied) as a function of model input variables (substance, crop, and environmental properties) including their possible correlations using matrix algebra. We identified five key parameters responsible for between 80% and 93% of the variation in pesticide residues, namely time between substance application and crop harvest, degradation half-lives in crops and on crop surfaces, overall residence times in soil, and substance molecular weight. Partition coefficients also play an important role for fruit trees and tomato (Kow), potato (Koc), and lettuce (Kaw, Kow). Focusing on these parameters, we develop crop-specific models by parametrizing a complex fate and exposure assessment framework. The parametric models thereby reflect the framework's physical and chemical mechanisms and predict pesticide residues in harvest using linear combinations of crop, crop surface, and soil compartments. Parametric model results correspond well with results from the complex framework for 1540 substance-crop combinations with total deviations between a factor 4 (potato) and a factor 66 (lettuce). Predicted residues also correspond well with experimental data previously used to evaluate the complex framework. Pesticide mass in harvest can finally be combined with reduction factors accounting for food processing to estimate human exposure from crop consumption. All parametric models can be easily implemented into existing assessment frameworks.

  5. Spatial modeling of the geographic distribution of wildlife populations: A case study in the lower Mississippi River region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, W.; Jeske, C.

    2000-01-01

    A geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial modeling approach was developed to study environmental and land use impacts on the geographic distribution of wintering northern pintails (Arias acuta) in the Lower Mississippi River region. Pintails were fitted with backpack radio transmitter packages at Catahoula Lake, LA, in October 1992-1994 and located weekly through the following March. Pintail survey data were converted into a digital database in ARC/INFO GIS format and integrated with environmental GIS data through a customized modeling interface. The study verified the relationship between pintail distributions and major environmental factors and developed a conceptual relation model. Visualization-based spatial simulations were used to display the movement patterns of specific population groups under spatial and temporal constraints. The spatial modeling helped understand the seasonal movement patterns of pintails in relation to their habitat usage in Arkansas and southwestern Louisiana for wintering and interchange situations among population groups wintering in Texas and southeastern Louisiana. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

  6. A dermal model for spray painters, part I : subjective exposure modelling of spray paint deposition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, D.H.; Semple, S.; Marquart, J.; Cherrie, J.W.

    2001-01-01

    The discriminative power of existing dermal exposure models is limited. Most models only allow occupational hygienists to rank workers between and within workplaces according to broad bands of dermal exposure. No allowance is made for the work practices of different individuals. In this study a

  7. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  8. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  9. Geographic variation in Chinese children' forced vital capacity and its association with long-term exposure to local PM10: a national cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hai-Jun; Li, Qin; Guo, Yuming; Song, Jie-Yun; Wang, Zhiqiang; Ma, Jun

    2017-08-12

    The purpose of this study was to estimate the association between Chinese children's forced vital capacity (FVC) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM10). The FVC data of 71,763 children aged 7 to 18 was collected from 2010 Chinese National Survey on Students' Construction and Health (CNSSCH). The local annual average concentration of PM10, relative humidity, ambient temperature, and other air pollutant data of 30 cities was collected from China Meteorological Administration and Ministry of Environment Protection of China. Then, we used generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the association between children's FVC and PM10. The obvious geographic variation in FVC was found in children of 30 Chinese cities ranging from 1647 ml in Xining to 2571 ml in Beijing. The annual average concentration of PM10 was also different, ranging from 40 μg/m(3) in Haikou to 155 μg/m(3) in Lanzhou. After adjusted individual characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, ambient temperature, relative humidity, and other air pollutants (e.g., NO2 and SO2) in the generalized additive model, we found that the increase of PM10 was associated with decrease of FVC in Chinese children. A 10-μg/m(3) increase of PM10 was associated with 1.33-ml decrease in FVC (95% confidence interval: -2.18 to -0.47). We also found a larger effect estimate of PM10 on FVC in boys than that in girls. Consistent associations were found in both physically inactive and active children. The increase of PM10 was associated with decrease of children's FVC. We should develop proper public health policy to protect children's respiratory health during growth and development in polluted areas.

  10. Modeling Burns for Pre-Cooled Skin Flame Exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torgrim Log

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available On a television show, a pre-cooled bare-skinned person (TV host passed through engulfing kerosene flames. The assumption was that a water film should protect him during 0.74 s flame exposure in an environment of 86 kW/m2 heat flux. The TV host got light burn inflammation on the back, arms and legs. The present work studies skin temperatures and burn damage integral of such dangerous flame exposure. The skin temperature distribution during water spray pre-cooling, transport to the flames, flame exposure, transport to the water pool, and final water pool cooling is modelled numerically. Details of the temperature development of the skin layers are presented, as well as the associated damage integral. It is shown that 5 °C water spray applied for a 30 s period pre-cooled the skin sufficiently to prevent severe skin injury. Soot marks indicate that the water layer evaporated completely in some areas resulting in skin flame contact. This exposed dry skin directly to the flames contributing significantly to the damage integral. It is further analyzed how higher water temperature, shorter pre-cooling period or longer flame exposure influence the damage integral. It is evident that minor changes in conditions could lead to severe burns and that high heat flux levels at the end of the exposure period are especially dangerous. This flame stunt should never be repeated.

  11. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alassane S Barro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP, historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

  12. Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barro, Alassane S; Fegan, Mark; Moloney, Barbara; Porter, Kelly; Muller, Janine; Warner, Simone; Blackburn, Jason K

    2016-06-01

    The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.

  13. MODELING ENERGY EXPENDITURE AND OXYGEN CONSUMPTION IN HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELS: ACCOUNTING FOR FATIGUE AND EPOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human exposure and dose models often require a quantification of oxygen consumption for a simulated individual. Oxygen consumption is dependent on the modeled Individual's physical activity level as described in an activity diary. Activity level is quantified via standardized val...

  14. MODELING ENERGY EXPENDITURE AND OXYGEN CONSUMPTION IN HUMAN EXPOSURE MODELS: ACCOUNTING FOR FATIGUE AND EPOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human exposure and dose models often require a quantification of oxygen consumption for a simulated individual. Oxygen consumption is dependent on the modeled Individual's physical activity level as described in an activity diary. Activity level is quantified via standardized val...

  15. Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Jeong C; Park, Tae H; Ko, Joon H; Chang, Seo I; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Mehdi, Mohammed R

    2011-11-01

    Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN®. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and façade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States.

  16. Building and applying geographical boundary conditions to model the EOT and other climate transitions in the Cenozoic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; van Hinsbergen, Douwe; von der Heydt, Anna; Dijkstra, Henk; Sluijs, Appy; Abels, Hemmo; Bijl, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Studies on deep-time palaeoclimate using numerical model simulations are often considerably dependent on the implemented geographical boundary conditions. Because building the required palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, such model studies frequently use reconstructions in which the latest insights have not yet been incorporated. We here provide a new method to efficiently generate global topography and bathymetry reconstructions that are suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. The workflow facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and paleoclimate modelling, while keeping the boundary conditions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Using a plate-tectonic model, global masks are created that contain the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and the deep ocean. We then combine depth-age relationships for oceanic crust with adjusted present-day topography into a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where the available geological data indicates significant altimetry changes over time. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions of interest is still ongoing, we have made the incorporation of changes as easy as possible. As a result, complete reconstructions can be made with limited effort and are provided as a boundary condition for numerical models. Results will be presented of simulations with both POP and CESM, covering both a late Eocene (38Ma) and an early Oligocene (30Ma) reconstruction. Changing boundary conditions are used to assess the impact of geography changes during the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Both the geographical reconstructions and validation of the results using proxies are being done in close collaboration with the Department of Geosciences at Utrecht University.

  17. BETR-World: a geographically explicit model of chemical fate: application to transport of {alpha}-HCH to the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toose, L.; Woodfine, D.G.; MacLeod, M.; Mackay, D.; Gouin, J

    2004-03-01

    The Berkeley-Trent (BETR)-World model, a 25 compartment, geographically explicit fugacity-based model is described and applied to evaluate the transport of chemicals from temperate source regions to receptor regions (such as the Arctic). The model was parameterized using GIS and an array of digital data on weather, oceans, freshwater, vegetation and geo-political boundaries. This version of the BETR model framework includes modification of atmospheric degradation rates by seasonally variable hydroxyl radical concentrations and temperature. Degradation rates in all other compartments vary with seasonally changing temperature. Deposition to the deep ocean has been included as a loss mechanism. A case study was undertaken for {alpha}-HCH. Dynamic emission scenarios were estimated for each of the 25 regions. Predicted environmental concentrations showed good agreement with measured values for the northern regions in air, and fresh and oceanic water and with the results from a previous model of global chemical fate. Potential for long-range transport and deposition to the Arctic region was assessed using a Transfer Efficiency combined with estimated emissions. European regions and the Orient including China have a high potential to contribute {alpha}-HCH contamination in the Arctic due to high rates of emission in these regions despite low Transfer Efficiencies. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the performance and reliability of the model is strongly influenced by parameters controlling degradation rates. - A geographically explicit multi-compartment model is applied to the transport of {alpha}-HCH to the Arctic, showing Europe and the Orient are key sources.

  18. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven P Batke

    Full Text Available High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP, Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field. Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  19. Modelling hurricane exposure and wind speed on a mesoclimate scale: a case study from Cusuco NP, Honduras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batke, Sven P; Jocque, Merlijn; Kelly, Daniel L

    2014-01-01

    High energy weather events are often expected to play a substantial role in biotic community dynamics and large scale diversity patterns but their contribution is hard to prove. Currently, observations are limited to the documentation of accidental records after the passing of such events. A more comprehensive approach is synthesising weather events in a location over a long time period, ideally at a high spatial resolution and on a large geographic scale. We provide a detailed overview on how to generate hurricane exposure data at a meso-climate level for a specific region. As a case study we modelled landscape hurricane exposure in Cusuco National Park (CNP), Honduras with a resolution of 50 m×50 m patches. We calculated actual hurricane exposure vulnerability site scores (EVVS) through the combination of a wind pressure model, an exposure model that can incorporate simple wind dynamics within a 3-dimensional landscape and the integration of historical hurricanes data. The EVSS was calculated as a weighted function of sites exposure, hurricane frequency and maximum wind velocity. Eleven hurricanes were found to have affected CNP between 1995 and 2010. The highest EVSS's were predicted to be on South and South-East facing sites of the park. Ground validation demonstrated that the South-solution (i.e. the South wind inflow direction) explained most of the observed tree damage (90% of the observed tree damage in the field). Incorporating historical data to the model to calculate actual hurricane exposure values, instead of potential exposure values, increased the model fit by 50%.

  20. Integrated exposure and dose modeling and analysis system. 1. Formulation and testing of microenvironmental and pharmacokinetic components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georgopoulos, P.G.; Walia, A.; Roy, A.; Lioy, P.J. [Rutgers Univ. and Univ. of Medicine & Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States)

    1997-01-01

    The conceptual and theoretical framework for a modular integrated Exposure and Dose Modeling and Analysis System (EDMAS) has been formulated, and its stepwise implementation and testing is currently in progress. This system aims to provide state-of-the art tools for performing integrated assessments of exposure and dose for individuals and populations. The integration of modeling components with each other as well as with available environmental, exposure, and toxicological databases in being accomplished with the use of computational tools that include interactive simulation environments, Geographical information Systems, and various data retrieval, management, statistical analysis, and visualization methods. This paper overviews the structure and modular nature of this integrated modeling system and focuses specifically on two of its components: (a) a hierarchy of physiologically based pharmacokinetic models (PBPKM), representing various levels of detail and sophistication, and (b) a family of microenvironmental models, that incorporate complex physical and chemical transformations. The deterministic implementation of these components is also presented here in two test applications: (i) a case study of benzene exposure indoors resulting from the volatilization of contaminated tap water and (ii) a case study of photochemical pollution infiltration indoors, in an office building environment. 77 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Estimation of Hazard Functions in the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model: Application to Lung Cancer Risk Associated with Geographical Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tengiz Mdzinarishvili

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An efficient computing procedure for estimating the age-specific hazard functions by the log-linear age-period-cohort (LLAPC model is proposed. This procedure accounts for the influence of time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of age-specific cancer incidence rates and estimates the hazard function for populations with different exposures to a given categorical risk factor. For these populations, the ratio of the corresponding age-specific hazard functions is proposed for use as a measure of relative hazard. This procedure was used for estimating the risks of lung cancer (LC for populations living in different geographical areas. For this purpose, the LC incidence rates in white men and women, in three geographical areas (namely: San Francisco-Oakland, Connecticut and Detroit, collected from the SEER 9 database during 1975–2004, were utilized. It was found that in white men the averaged relative hazard (an average of the relative hazards over all ages of LC in Connecticut vs. San Francisco-Oakland is 1.31 ± 0.02, while in Detroit vs. San Francisco-Oakland this averaged relative hazard is 1.53 ± 0.02. In white women, analogous hazards in Connecticut vs. San Francisco-Oakland and Detroit vs. San Francisco-Oakland are 1.22 ± 0.02 and 1.32 ± 0.02, correspondingly. The proposed computing procedure can be used for assessing hazard functions for other categorical risk factors, such as gender, race, lifestyle, diet, obesity, etc.

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  3. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2010-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  4. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., Anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2011-03-15

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar storms at high altitudes. Neutron monitor count rate data from stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during a Ground Level Event. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  5. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure from solar particle events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on GOES satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate aircrew radiation exposure due to solar particle events. Neutron monitor count rate data from ground stations around the world were used to benchmark the model calculations during several Ground Level Events (GLEs). In addition, a comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements made by some European investigators with various types of instrument used to measure the mixed radiation field during GLE 60 and 65. A computer-code has been further developed to implement the model for routine analysis. (author)

  6. Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

    2017-03-01

    Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

  7. Virulence Studies of Different Sequence Types and Geographical Origins of Streptococcus suis Serotype 2 in a Mouse Model of Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Auger

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Multilocus sequence typing previously identified three predominant sequence types (STs of Streptococcus suis serotype 2: ST1 strains predominate in Eurasia while North American (NA strains are generally ST25 and ST28. However, ST25/ST28 and ST1 strains have also been isolated in Asia and NA, respectively. Using a well-standardized mouse model of infection, the virulence of strains belonging to different STs and different geographical origins was evaluated. Results demonstrated that although a certain tendency may be observed, S. suis serotype 2 virulence is difficult to predict based on ST and geographical origin alone; strains belonging to the same ST presented important differences of virulence and did not always correlate with origin. The only exception appears to be NA ST28 strains, which were generally less virulent in both systemic and central nervous system (CNS infection models. Persistent and high levels of bacteremia accompanied by elevated CNS inflammation are required to cause meningitis. Although widely used, in vitro tests such as phagocytosis and killing assays require further standardization in order to be used as predictive tests for evaluating virulence of strains. The use of strains other than archetypal strains has increased our knowledge and understanding of the S. suis serotype 2 population dynamics.

  8. Ecological niche modelling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species and their geographical association with equine epizootics in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Mulatti, Paolo; Severini, Francesco; Boccolini, Daniela; Romi, Roberto; Bongiorno, Gioia; Khoury, Cristina; Bianchi, Riccardo; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Patregnani, Tommaso; Bonfanti, Lebana; Rezza, Giovanni; Capelli, Gioia; Busani, Luca

    2014-01-01

    In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) equine outbreaks have occurred annually since 2008. Characterizing WNV vector habitat requirements allows for the identification of areas at risk of viral amplification and transmission. Maxent-based ecological niche models were developed using literature records of 13 potential WNV Italian vector mosquito species to predict their habitat suitability range and to investigate possible geographical associations with WNV equine outbreak occurrence in Italy from 2008 to 2010. The contribution of different environmental variables to the niche models was also assessed. Suitable habitats for Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, and Anopheles maculipennis were widely distributed; Culex modestus, Ochlerotatus geniculatus, Ochlerotatus caspius, Coquillettidia richiardii, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles plumbeus were concentrated in north-central Italy; Aedes cinereus, Culex theileri, Ochlerotatus dorsalis, and Culiseta longiareolata were restricted to coastal/southern areas. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation variables showed the highest predictive power. Host population and landscape variables provided minor contributions. WNV equine outbreaks had a significantly higher probability to occur in habitats suitable for Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens, providing circumstantial evidence that the potential distribution of these two species coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in equines.

  9. UML modelling of geographic routing protocol "Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing" for its integration into the "Java Network Simulator"

    CERN Document Server

    Erritali, Mohammed; Ouahidi, Bouabid El

    2012-01-01

    In this work we propose an UML modeling of the "Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing" (GPSR) protocol that integrate this geographic routing protocol, into "JavaNetwork Simulator" to simulate and study this protocol in a first time and offer some improvement in these features. Java Network Simulator (JNS) is a project of "translation" of Network Simulator (NS) in Java initiated by "the UCL Department of Computer Science". This simulator is not as complete as ns-2, but it is much more accessible to programmers unfamiliar with Tcl. Java Network Simulator does not support so far, no routing protocol for vehicular ad hoc networks and all the routing decisions are made statically or using RIP and OSPF. By modeling and integrating the routing protocol GPSR to JNS, users will be able to understand the concept of the geographic routing and how the routing information is transmitted and updated between nodes in vehicular ad hoc network. The article first examines the architecture of the Java Network Simulator, then give...

  10. An integrated geographic information system approach for modeling the suitability of conifer habitat in an alpine environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Stephen J.

    1998-01-01

    Alpine periglacial environments within the forest-alpine tundra ecotone (FATE) may be among the first to reflect changes in habitat characteristics as a consequence of climatic change. Previous FATE studies used Integrated Geographic Information System (IGIS) techniques to collect and model biophysical data but lacked the necessary detail to model the micro-scale patterns and compositions of habitat within alpine periglacial environments. This paper describes several promising data collection, integration, and cartographic modeling techniques used in an IGIS approach to model alpine periglacial environments in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana, USA. High-resolution (I X I m) multi-spectral remote sensing data and differentially corrected Global Positioning System (DGPS) data were integrated with other biophysical data using a raster-based IGIS approach. Biophysical factors, hypothesized to influence the pattern and composition of the FATE and the alpine tundra ecosystem, were derived from the high-resolution remote sensing data, in-situ GPS data, high-resolution models of digital elevation, and other thematic data using image processing techniques and cartographic modeling. Suitability models of conifer habitat were created using indices generated from the IGIS database. This IGIS approach identified suitable conifer habitat within the FATE and permitted the modeling of micro-scale periglacial features and alpine tundra communities that are absent from traditional approaches of landscape-scale (30 X 30 m) modeling.

  11. Mobile phone model with metamaterials to reduce the exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Yenny; Begaud, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    This work presents a terminal mobile model where an Inverted-F Antenna (IFA) is associated with three different kinds of metamaterials: artificial magnetic conductor (AMC), electromagnetic band gap (EBG) and resistive high-impedance surface (RHIS). The objective was to evaluate whether some metamaterials may be used to reduce exposure while preserving the antenna performances. The exposure has been evaluated using a simplified phantom model. Two configurations, antenna in front of the phantom and antenna hidden by the ground plane, have been evaluated. Results show that using an optimized RHIS, the SAR 10 g is reduced and the antenna performances are preserved. With RHIS solution, the SAR 10 g peak is reduced by 8 % when the antenna is located in front of the phantom and by 6 % when the antenna is hidden by ground plane.

  12. Integrating remote sensing, geographic information system and modeling for estimating crop yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Luis Alonso

    This thesis explores various aspects of the use of remote sensing, geographic information system and digital signal processing technologies for broad-scale estimation of crop yield in Kansas. Recent dry and drought years in the Great Plains have emphasized the need for new sources of timely, objective and quantitative information on crop conditions. Crop growth monitoring and yield estimation can provide important information for government agencies, commodity traders and producers in planning harvest, storage, transportation and marketing activities. The sooner this information is available the lower the economic risk translating into greater efficiency and increased return on investments. Weather data is normally used when crop yield is forecasted. Such information, to provide adequate detail for effective predictions, is typically feasible only on small research sites due to expensive and time-consuming collections. In order for crop assessment systems to be economical, more efficient methods for data collection and analysis are necessary. The purpose of this research is to use satellite data which provides 50 times more spatial information about the environment than the weather station network in a short amount of time at a relatively low cost. Specifically, we are going to use Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) based vegetation health (VH) indices as proxies for characterization of weather conditions.

  13. A geographical information system model for creating bioclimatic maps - examples from a high, mid-latitude city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Marie K; Thorsson, Sofia; Lindqvist, Sven

    2003-03-01

    This paper presents a method for creating large-scale bioclimatic maps with the aid of a geographical information system, GIS. Meteorological data are linked with geographical information about land use, elevation and distance to the coast, in order to generate spatial distributions of physiological equivalent temperature, PET. The model combines an air temperature map and a wind map in order to create different zones for which the thermal component is to be calculated. The advantage of the model presented is that it uses generally available information about land use, altitude and distance to the coast. Further, the model uses a GIS application, which makes it non-static. Compared to most other models, a wide range of observations are used as input. Few biometeorological studies have been performed in high-latitude areas. This paper presents bioclimatic maps for the Göteborg urban area, in Sweden, for the month of July. The results show large variations in PET during a clear, calm day at 1200 hours (Delta T 13.4 degrees C) and during average conditions in July (Delta T 6.8 degrees C), which gives an indication of the magnitude and the spatial variations within high, midlatitude, urban area in summer. The highest PET values were found in the central built-up areas and the lowest PET values in the coastal and green areas. The model generates valuable information for urban planners and decision makers when planning and constructing new areas for outdoor activities etc. This information is also useful in the fields of health and energy.

  14. Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Anid, Hani Khaled

    show a very different response during anisotropic events, leading to variations in aircrew radiation doses that may be significant for dose assessment. To estimate the additional exposure due to solar flares, a model was developed using a Monte-Carlo radiation transport code, MCNPX. The model transports an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere using the MCNPX analysis. This code produces the estimated flux at a specific altitude where radiation dose conversion coefficients are applied to convert the particle flux into effective and ambient dose-equivalent rates. A cut-off rigidity model accounts for the shielding effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Comparisons were made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during Ground Level Enhancements 60 and 65. An anisotropy analysis that uses neutron monitor responses and the pitch angle distribution of energetic solar particles was used to identify particle anisotropy for a solar event in December 2006. In anticipation of future commercial use, a computer code has been developed to implement the radiation dose assessment model for routine analysis. Keywords: Radiation Dosimetry, Radiation Protection, Space Physics.

  15. POPULATION EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODEL FOR AIR TOXICS: A BENZENE CASE STUDY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) is developing a human exposure and dose model called the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for Air Toxics (SHEDS-AirToxics) to characterize population exposure to air toxics in support of the National Air ...

  16. Multi-pathway exposure modelling of chemicals in cosmetics ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a novel multi-pathway, mass balance based, fate and exposure model compatible with life cycle and high-throughput screening assessments of chemicals in cosmetic products. The exposures through product use as well as post-use emissions and environmental media were quantified based on the chemical mass originally applied via a product, multiplied by the product intake fractions (PiF, the fraction of a chemical in a product that is taken in by exposed persons) to yield intake rates. The average PiFs for the evaluated chemicals in shampoo ranged from 3 × 10− 4 up to 0.3 for rapidly absorbed ingredients. Average intake rates ranged between nano- and micrograms per kilogram bodyweight per day; the order of chemical prioritization was strongly affected by the ingredient concentration in shampoo. Dermal intake and inhalation (for 20% of the evaluated chemicals) during use dominated exposure, while the skin permeation coefficient dominated the estimated uncertainties. The fraction of chemical taken in by a shampoo user often exceeded, by orders of magnitude, the aggregated fraction taken in by the population through post-use environmental emissions. Chemicals with relatively high octanol-water partitioning and/or volatility, and low molecular weight tended to have higher use stage exposure. Chemicals with low intakes during use (< 1%) and subsequent high post-use emissions, however, may yield comparable intake for a member of the general population. The pre

  17. SAS macro programs for geographically weighted generalized linear modeling with spatial point data: applications to health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju; Yang, Tse-Chuan

    2012-08-01

    An increasing interest in exploring spatial non-stationarity has generated several specialized analytic software programs; however, few of these programs can be integrated natively into a well-developed statistical environment such as SAS. We not only developed a set of SAS macro programs to fill this gap, but also expanded the geographically weighted generalized linear modeling (GWGLM) by integrating the strengths of SAS into the GWGLM framework. Three features distinguish our work. First, the macro programs of this study provide more kernel weighting functions than the existing programs. Second, with our codes the users are able to better specify the bandwidth selection process compared to the capabilities of existing programs. Third, the development of the macro programs is fully embedded in the SAS environment, providing great potential for future exploration of complicated spatially varying coefficient models in other disciplines. We provided three empirical examples to illustrate the use of the SAS macro programs and demonstrated the advantages explained above.

  18. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E; Bustamante, Ramiro O; Badano, Ernesto I

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  19. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E Ramírez-Albores

    Full Text Available Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted, the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle, a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model. The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model, while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model. When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with

  20. Improved Predictions of the Geographic Distribution of Invasive Plants Using Climatic Niche Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic niche models for invasive plants are usually constructed with occurrence records taken from literature and collections. Because these data neither discriminate among life-cycle stages of plants (adult or juvenile) nor the origin of individuals (naturally established or man-planted), the resulting models may mispredict the distribution ranges of these species. We propose that more accurate predictions could be obtained by modelling climatic niches with data of naturally established individuals, particularly with occurrence records of juvenile plants because this would restrict the predictions of models to those sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of the species. To test this proposal, we focused on the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle), a South American species that has largely invaded Mexico. Three climatic niche models were constructed for this species using high-resolution dataset gathered in the field. The first model included all occurrence records, irrespective of the life-cycle stage or origin of peppertrees (generalized niche model). The second model only included occurrence records of naturally established mature individuals (adult niche model), while the third model was constructed with occurrence records of naturally established juvenile plants (regeneration niche model). When models were compared, the generalized climatic niche model predicted the presence of peppertrees in sites located farther beyond the climatic thresholds that naturally established individuals can tolerate, suggesting that human activities influence the distribution of this invasive species. The adult and regeneration climatic niche models concurred in their predictions about the distribution of peppertrees, suggesting that naturally established adult trees only occur in sites where climatic conditions allow the recruitment of juvenile stages. These results support the proposal that climatic niches of invasive plants should be modelled with data of

  1. Geographical Tatoos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valéria Cazetta

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with maps tattooed on bodies. My interest in studying the corporeality is inserted in a broader project entitled Geographies and (in Bodies. There is several published research on tattoos, but none in particular about tattooed maps. However some of these works interested me because they present important discussions in contemporary about body modification that helped me locate the body modifications most within the culture than on the nature. At this time, I looked at pictures of geographical tattoos available in several sites of the internet.

  2. An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

    2009-01-01

    We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global

  3. Predictive modeling of terrestrial radiation exposure from geologic materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haber, Daniel A.

    Aerial gamma ray surveys are an important tool for national security, scientific, and industrial interests in determining locations of both anthropogenic and natural sources of radioactivity. There is a relationship between radioactivity and geology and in the past this relationship has been used to predict geology from an aerial survey. The purpose of this project is to develop a method to predict the radiologic exposure rate of the geologic materials in an area by creating a model using geologic data, images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), geochemical data, and pre-existing low spatial resolution aerial surveys from the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) Survey. Using these data, geospatial areas, referred to as background radiation units, homogenous in terms of K, U, and Th are defined and the gamma ray exposure rate is predicted. The prediction is compared to data collected via detailed aerial survey by our partner National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), allowing for the refinement of the technique. High resolution radiation exposure rate models have been developed for two study areas in Southern Nevada that include the alluvium on the western shore of Lake Mohave, and Government Wash north of Lake Mead; both of these areas are arid with little soil moisture and vegetation. We determined that by using geologic units to define radiation background units of exposed bedrock and ASTER visualizations to subdivide radiation background units of alluvium, regions of homogeneous geochemistry can be defined allowing for the exposure rate to be predicted. Soil and rock samples have been collected at Government Wash and Lake Mohave as well as a third site near Cameron, Arizona. K, U, and Th concentrations of these samples have been determined using inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and laboratory counting using radiation detection equipment. In addition, many sample locations also have

  4. BETR-world: A geographically explicit model of chemical fate: Application to transport of a-HCH to the arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toose, Liisa; Woodfine, David G.; MacLeod, Matthew; Mackay, Don; Gouin, Jenn

    2003-12-01

    The Berkeley Trent (BETR)-World model, a 25 compartment, geographically explicit fugacity-based model is described and applied to evaluate the transport of chemicals from temperate source regions to receptor regions (such as the Arctic). The model was parameterized using GIS and an array of digital data on weather, oceans, freshwater, vegetation and geo-political boundaries. This version of the BETR model framework includes modification of atmospheric degradation rates by seasonally variable hydroxyl radical concentrations and temperature. Degradation rates in all other compartments vary with seasonally changing temperature. Deposition to the deep ocean has been included as a loss mechanism. A case study was undertaken for a-HCH. Dynamic emission scenarios were estimated for each of the 25 regions. Predicted environmental concentrations showed good agreement with measured values for the northern regions in air , and fresh and oceanic water and with the results from a previous model of global chemical fate. Potential for long-range transport and deposition to the Arctic region was assessed using a Transfer Efficiency combined with estimated emissions. European regions and the Orient including China have a high potential to contribute a-HCH contamination in the Arctic due to high rates of emission in these regions despite low Transfer Efficiencies. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the performance and reliability of the model is strongly in sequenced by parameters controlling degradation rates.

  5. Scale Effects of the Relationships between Urban Heat Islands and Impact Factors Based on a Geographically-Weighted Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaobo Luo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban heat island (UHI effect, the side effect of rapid urbanization, has become an obstacle to the further healthy development of the city. Understanding its relationships with impact factors is important to provide useful information for climate adaptation urban planning strategies. For this purpose, the geographically-weighted regression (GWR approach is used to explore the scale effects in a mountainous city, namely the change laws and characteristics of the relationships between land surface temperature and impact factors at different spatial resolutions (30–960 m. The impact factors include the Soil-adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI, the Index-based Built-up Index (IBI, and the Soil Brightness Index (NDSI, which indicate the coverage of the vegetation, built-up, and bare land, respectively. For reference, the ordinary least squares (OLS model, a global regression technique, is also employed by using the same dependent variable and explanatory variables as in the GWR model. Results from the experiment exemplified by Chongqing showed that the GWR approach had a better prediction accuracy and a better ability to describe spatial non-stationarity than the OLS approach judged by the analysis of the local coefficient of determination (R2, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc, and F-test at small spatial resolution (< 240 m; however, when the spatial scale was increased to 480 m, this advantage has become relatively weak. This indicates that the GWR model becomes increasingly global, revealing the relationships with more generalized geographical patterns, and then spatial non-stationarity in the relationship will tend to be neglected with the increase of spatial resolution.

  6. Dynamic occupancy models for analyzing species' range dynamics across large geographic scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bled, Florent; Nichols, James D; Altwegg, Res

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale biodiversity data are needed to predict species' responses to global change and to address basic questions in macroecology. While such data are increasingly becoming available, their analysis is challenging because of the typically large heterogeneity in spatial sampling intensity and the need to account for observation processes. Two further challenges are accounting for spatial effects that are not explained by covariates, and drawing inference on dynamics at these large spatial scales. We developed dynamic occupancy models to analyze large-scale atlas data. In addition to occupancy, these models estimate local colonization and persistence probabilities. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation using conditional autoregressive models and autologistic models. We fitted the models to detection/nondetection data collected on a quarter-degree grid across southern Africa during two atlas projects, using the hadeda ibis (Bostrychia hagedash) as an example. The model accurately reproduced the range expansion between the first (SABAP1: 1987–1992) and second (SABAP2: 2007–2012) Southern African Bird Atlas Project into the drier parts of interior South Africa. Grid cells occupied during SABAP1 generally remained occupied, but colonization of unoccupied grid cells was strongly dependent on the number of occupied grid cells in the neighborhood. The detection probability strongly varied across space due to variation in effort, observer identity, seasonality, and unexplained spatial effects. We present a flexible hierarchical approach for analyzing grid-based atlas data using dynamical occupancy models. Our model is similar to a species' distribution model obtained using generalized additive models but has a number of advantages. Our model accounts for the heterogeneous sampling process, spatial correlation, and perhaps most importantly, allows us to examine dynamic aspects of species ranges. PMID:24455124

  7. An analytical model for the performance of geographical multi-hop broadcast

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Wolterink, W.; Heijenk, G.J.; Berg, van den J.L.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present an analytical model accurately describing the behaviour of a multi-hop broadcast protocol. Our model covers the scenario in which a message is forwarded over a straight road and inter-node distances are distributed exponentially. Intermediate forwarders draw a small random d

  8. The application of a Web-geographic information system for improving urban water cycle modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mair, M; Mikovits, C; Sengthaler, M; Schöpf, M; Kinzel, H; Urich, C; Kleidorfer, M; Sitzenfrei, R; Rauch, W

    2014-01-01

    Research in urban water management has experienced a transition from traditional model applications to modelling water cycles as an integrated part of urban areas. This includes the interlinking of models of many research areas (e.g. urban development, socio-economy, urban water management). The integration and simulation is realized in newly developed frameworks (e.g. DynaMind and OpenMI) and often assumes a high knowledge in programming. This work presents a Web based urban water management modelling platform which simplifies the setup and usage of complex integrated models. The platform is demonstrated with a small application example on a case study within the Alpine region. The used model is a DynaMind model benchmarking the impact of newly connected catchments on the flooding behaviour of an existing combined sewer system. As a result the workflow of the user within a Web browser is demonstrated and benchmark results are shown. The presented platform hides implementation specific aspects behind Web services based technologies such that the user can focus on his main aim, which is urban water management modelling and benchmarking. Moreover, this platform offers a centralized data management, automatic software updates and access to high performance computers accessible with desktop computers and mobile devices.

  9. Modeling emission rates and exposures from outdoor cooking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Rufus; Princevac, Marko; Weltman, Robert; Ghasemian, Masoud; Arora, Narendra K.; Bond, Tami

    2017-09-01

    Approximately 3 billion individuals rely on solid fuels for cooking globally. For a large portion of these - an estimated 533 million - cooking is outdoors, where emissions from cookstoves pose a health risk to both cooks and other household and village members. Models that estimate emissions rates from stoves in indoor environments that would meet WHO air quality guidelines (AQG), explicitly don't account for outdoor cooking. The objectives of this paper are to link health based exposure guidelines with emissions from outdoor cookstoves, using a Monte Carlo simulation of cooking times from Haryana India coupled with inverse Gaussian dispersion models. Mean emission rates for outdoor cooking that would result in incremental increases in personal exposure equivalent to the WHO AQG during a 24-h period were 126 ± 13 mg/min for cooking while squatting and 99 ± 10 mg/min while standing. Emission rates modeled for outdoor cooking are substantially higher than emission rates for indoor cooking to meet AQG, because the models estimate impact of emissions on personal exposure concentrations rather than microenvironment concentrations, and because the smoke disperses more readily outdoors compared to indoor environments. As a result, many more stoves including the best performing solid-fuel biomass stoves would meet AQG when cooking outdoors, but may also result in substantial localized neighborhood pollution depending on housing density. Inclusion of the neighborhood impact of pollution should be addressed more formally both in guidelines on emissions rates from stoves that would be protective of health, and also in wider health impact evaluation efforts and burden of disease estimates. Emissions guidelines should better represent the different contexts in which stoves are being used, especially because in these contexts the best performing solid fuel stoves have the potential to provide significant benefits.

  10. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  11. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as a Simple Tool to Aid Modelling of Particulate Waste Distribution at Marine Fish Cage Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, O. M.; Telfer, T. C.; Beveridge, M. C. M.; Ross, L. G.

    2002-04-01

    Deposition of particulate organic waste from marine fish farm cages on to sea-bed sediments can cause major changes to the benthic ecosystem. Validated spatial models are considered as the most cost-effective tools for predicting environmental impacts. An improved version of an existing predictive particulate waste distribution model for farmed Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar L.) is presented, which uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) combined with a spreadsheet. The model presented uses existing distribution algorithms but also incorporates functions to calculate feed loading for all the cages within a pontoon independently, spreads the input load over the whole cage area and simulates post-depositional distribution of the carbon. The model uses approximate estimates of feed and faecal waste derived from dietary considerations (mass balance model) and separate, unique settling velocities for waste feed and faecal particles. The model incorporates values of current speed and direction recorded over spring and neap tides. Output from the model is in the form of a contour plot of organic carbon (g C m -2), showing distribution of the particulate organic carbon material as deposited on the sea-bed. During this study using hydrographic data collected from near a fish farm, the model predicted a smooth gradient of sediment carbon concentrations which decreased with distance from the cages. Model performance was validated using measured levels of sediment carbon, and showed a significant correlation between predicted and actual sediment loading (R=0·7; P <0·01). The differences between predicted and measured quantities of carbon found at some sampling stations are likely to be due to processes not included in the model, such as small differences in bathymetry, differences in bottom type which may have increased or decreased the carbon distribution through saltation, or natural variation in the sediment composition.

  12. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  13. Time, space and contextual models of the immunity tolerance decision: bridging the geographical divide of Zinkernagel and Hengartner's 'Credo 2004'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, C C

    2006-04-01

    In Credo 2004, Zinkernagel and Hengartner (Z&H) have continued their challenge to the immunological community to reconsider assumptions regarding the most fundamental aspects of adaptive immunity. They have appropriately championed the role of persistent, widely distributed antigen in tolerance induction, parameters that do not figure prominently in most other models. The global theory of immunity they have developed is predominantly based on observations from studies with viruses and tumours. I suggest here that a more successful approach to generating a theory of the default rules of immunity can be obtained through the study of immunity versus tolerance in the setting of transplantation. Transplantation studies lack the confounding variable of competing evolution present in responses to specific infectious agents and tumours and, therefore, more clearly elucidate default rules of immunity. The geographical model in Credo 2004, primarily a one-signal model regulated by antigen, is contrasted with (1) Cohn's time-based two-signal model and (2) a development-context model that postulates distinct central and peripheral tolerance mechanisms.

  14. Achieving Consistent Multiple Daily Low-Dose Bacillus anthracis Spore Inhalation Exposures in the Rabbit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-13

    daily low-dose Bacillus anthracis spore inhalation exposures in the rabbit model Roy E. Barnewall 1, Jason E. Comer 1, Brian D. Miller 1, BradfordW...multiple exposure days. Keywords: Bacillus anthracis , inhalation exposures, low-dose, subchronic exposures, spores, anthrax, aerosol system INTRODUCTION... Bacillus Anthracis Spore Inhalation Exposures In The Rabbit Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d

  15. A three-dimensional point process model for the spatial distribution of disease occurrence in relation to an exposure source.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grell, Kathrine; Diggle, Peter J; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Schüz, Joachim; Cardis, Elisabeth; Andersen, Per K

    2015-10-15

    We study methods for how to include the spatial distribution of tumours when investigating the relation between brain tumours and the exposure from radio frequency electromagnetic fields caused by mobile phone use. Our suggested point process model is adapted from studies investigating spatial aggregation of a disease around a source of potential hazard in environmental epidemiology, where now the source is the preferred ear of each phone user. In this context, the spatial distribution is a distribution over a sample of patients rather than over multiple disease cases within one geographical area. We show how the distance relation between tumour and phone can be modelled nonparametrically and, with various parametric functions, how covariates can be included in the model and how to test for the effect of distance. To illustrate the models, we apply them to a subset of the data from the Interphone Study, a large multinational case-control study on the association between brain tumours and mobile phone use.

  16. Predictive modeling of nanomaterial exposure effects in biological systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu X

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Xiong Liu,1 Kaizhi Tang,1 Stacey Harper,2 Bryan Harper,2 Jeffery A Steevens,3 Roger Xu1 1Intelligent Automation, Inc., Rockville, MD, USA; 2Department of Environmental and Molecular Toxicology, School of Chemical, Biological, and Environmental Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA; 3ERDC Environmental Laboratory, Vicksburg, MS, USA Background: Predictive modeling of the biological effects of nanomaterials is critical for industry and policymakers to assess the potential hazards resulting from the application of engineered nanomaterials. Methods: We generated an experimental dataset on the toxic effects experienced by embryonic zebrafish due to exposure to nanomaterials. Several nanomaterials were studied, such as metal nanoparticles, dendrimer, metal oxide, and polymeric materials. The embryonic zebrafish metric (EZ Metric was used as a screening-level measurement representative of adverse effects. Using the dataset, we developed a data mining approach to model the toxic endpoints and the overall biological impact of nanomaterials. Data mining techniques, such as numerical prediction, can assist analysts in developing risk assessment models for nanomaterials. Results: We found several important attributes that contribute to the 24 hours post-fertilization (hpf mortality, such as dosage concentration, shell composition, and surface charge. These findings concur with previous studies on nanomaterial toxicity using embryonic zebrafish. We conducted case studies on modeling the overall effect/impact of nanomaterials and the specific toxic endpoints such as mortality, delayed development, and morphological malformations. The results show that we can achieve high prediction accuracy for certain biological effects, such as 24 hpf mortality, 120 hpf mortality, and 120 hpf heart malformation. The results also show that the weighting scheme for individual biological effects has a significant influence on modeling the overall impact of

  17. Modelling the potential geographic distribution of triatomines infected by Triatoma virus in the southern cone of South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccarelli, Soledad; Balsalobre, Agustín; Susevich, María Laura; Echeverria, María Gabriela; Gorla, David Eladio; Marti, Gerardo Aníbal

    2015-03-12

    Triatoma virus (TrV) is the only entomopathogenous virus identified in triatomines. We estimated the potential geographic distribution of triatomine species naturally infected by TrV, using remotely sensed and meteorological environmental variables, to predict new potential areas where triatomines infected with TrV may be found. Detection of TrV infection in samples was performed with RT-PCR. Ecological niche models (ENM) were constructed using the MaxEnt software. We used 42 environmental variables derived from remotely sensed imagery (AVHRR) and 19 bioclimatic variables (Bioclim). The MaxEnt Jackknife procedure was used to minimize the number of environmental variables that showed an influence on final models. The goodness of fit of the model predictions was evaluated by the mean area under the curve (AUC). We obtained 37 samples of 7 species of triatomines naturally infected with TrV. Of the TrV positive samples, 32% were from sylvatic habitat, 46% came from peridomicile habitats and 22% from domicile habitats. Five of the seven infected species were found only in the sylvatic habitat, one species only in the domicile and only Triatoma infestans was found in the three habitats. The MaxEnt model estimated with the Bioclim dataset identified five environmental variables as best predictors: temperature annual range, mean diurnal range, mean temperature of coldest quarter, temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature. The model using the AVHRR dataset identified six environmental variables: minimum Land Surface Temperature (LST), minimum Middle Infrared Radiation (MIR), LST annual amplitude, MIR annual amplitude annual, LST variance and MIR variance. The potential geographic distribution of triatomine species infected by TrV coincides with the Chaco and the Monte ecoregions either modelled by AVHRR or Bioclim environmental datasets. Our results show that the conditions of the Dry Chaco ecoregion in Argentina are favourable for the infection of triatomine

  18. Modeling regional mobile source emissions in a geographic information system framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachman, W. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). Center for Geographic Information Systems; Sarasua, W. [Clemson Univ., SC (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hallmark, S. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). School of Civil and Construction Engineering; Guensler, R. [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). School fo Civil and Environmental Engineering

    2000-07-01

    Suburban sprawl, population growth, and automobile dependency contribute directly to air pollution problems in US metropolitan areas. As metropolitan regions attempt to mitigate these problems, they are faced with the difficult task of balancing the mobility needs of a growing population and economy, while simultaneously lowering or maintaining levels of ambient pollutants. Although ambient air quality can he directly monitored, predicting the amount and fraction of the mobile source components presents special challenges. A modeling framework that can correlate spatial and temporal emission-specific vehicle activities is required for the complex photochemical models used to predict pollutant concentrations . This paper discusses the GIS-based modeling approach called the Mobile Emission Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE). MEASURE provides researchers and planners with a means of assessing motor vehicle emission reduction strategies. Estimates of spatially resolved fleet composition and activity are combined with activity-specific emission rates to predict engine start and running exhaust emissions. Engine start emissions are estimated using aggregate zonal information. Running exhaust emissions are predicted using road segment specific information and aggregate zonal information. The paper discusses the benefits and challenges related to mobile source emissions modeling in a GIS framework and identifies future GIS mobile emissions modeling research needs. (Author)

  19. KREAM: Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for Aviation Route Dose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J.; Dokgo, K.; Choi, E. J.; Kim, K. C.; Kim, H. P.; Cho, K. S. F.

    2014-12-01

    Since Korean Air has begun to use the polar route from Seoul/ICN airport to New York/JFK airport on August 2006, there are explosive needs for the estimation and prediction against cosmic radiation exposure for Korean aircrew and passengers in South Korea from public. To keep pace with those needs of public, Korean government made the law on safety standards and managements of cosmic radiation for the flight attendants and the pilots in 2013. And we have begun to develop our own Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model (KREAM) for aviation route dose since last year funded by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). GEANT4 model and NRLMSIS 00 model are used for calculation of the energetic particles' transport in the atmosphere and for obtaining the background atmospheric neutral densities depending on altitude. For prediction the radiation exposure in many routes depending on the various space weather effects, we constructed a database from pre-arranged simulations using all possible combinations of R, S, and G, which are the space weather effect scales provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To get the solar energetic particles' spectrum at the 100 km altitude which we set as a top of the atmospheric layers in the KREAM, we use ACE and GOES satellites' proton flux observations. We compare the results between KREAM and the other cosmic radiation estimation programs such as CARI-6M which is provided by the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA). We also validate KREAM's results by comparison with the measurement from Liulin-6K LET spectrometer onboard Korean commercial flights and Korean Air Force reconnaissance flights.

  20. Assessing the status and trend of bat populations across broad geographic regions with dynamic distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

    2012-01-01

    Bats face unprecedented threats from habitat loss, climate change, disease, and wind power development, and populations of many species are in decline. A better ability to quantify bat population status and trend is urgently needed in order to develop effective conservation strategies. We used a Bayesian autoregressive approach to develop dynamic distribution models for Myotis lucifugus, the little brown bat, across a large portion of northwestern USA, using a four-year detection history matrix obtained from a regional monitoring program. This widespread and abundant species has experienced precipitous local population declines in northeastern USA resulting from the novel disease white-nose syndrome, and is facing likely range-wide declines. Our models were temporally dynamic and accounted for imperfect detection. Drawing on species–energy theory, we included measures of net primary productivity (NPP) and forest cover in models, predicting that M. lucifugus occurrence probabilities would covary positively along those gradients.

  1. Chromosome aberrations as biomarkers of radiation exposure: Modelling basic mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballarini, F.; Ottolenghi, A.

    The space radiation environment is a mixed field consisting of different particles having different energies, including high charge and energy (HZE) ions. Conventional measurements of absorbed doses may not be sufficient to completely characterise the radiation field and perform reliable estimates of health risks. Biological dosimetry, based on the observation of specific radiation-induced endpoints (typically chromosome aberrations), can be a helpful approach in case of monitored exposure to space radiation or other mixed fields, as well as in case of accidental exposure. Furthermore, various ratios of aberrations (e.g. dicentric chromosomes to centric rings and complex exchanges to simple exchanges) have been suggested as possible fingerprints of radiation quality, although all of them have been subjected to some criticisms. In this context a mechanistic model and a Monte Carlo code for the simulation of chromosome aberration induction were developed. The model, able to provide dose-responses for different aberrations (e.g. dicentrics, rings, fragments, translocations, insertions and other complex exchanges), was further developed to assess the dependence of various ratios of aberrations on radiation quality. The predictions of the model were compared with available data, whose experimental conditions were faithfully reproduced. Particular attention was devoted to the scoring criteria adopted in different laboratories and to possible biases introduced by interphase death and mitotic delay. This latter aspect was investigated by taking into account both metaphase data and data obtained with Premature Chromosome Condensation (PCC).

  2. Inverse problems in geographical economics: parameter identification in the spatial Solow model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engbers, Ralf; Burger, Martin; Capasso, Vincenzo

    2014-11-13

    The identification of production functions from data is an important task in the modelling of economic growth. In this paper, we consider a non-parametric approach to this identification problem in the context of the spatial Solow model which allows for rather general production functions, in particular convex-concave ones that have recently been proposed as reasonable shapes. We formulate the inverse problem and apply Tikhonov regularization. The inverse problem is discretized by finite elements and solved iteratively via a preconditioned gradient descent approach. Numerical results for the reconstruction of the production function are given and analysed at the end of this paper.

  3. Flood Hazard Mapping by Using Geographic Information System and Hydraulic Model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahdettin Demir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, flood hazard maps were prepared for the Mert River Basin, Samsun, Turkey, by using GIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS. In this river basin, human life losses and a significant amount of property damages were experienced in 2012 flood. The preparation of flood risk maps employed in the study includes the following steps: (1 digitization of topographical data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS, (2 simulation of flood lows of different return periods using a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS, and (3 preparation of flood risk maps by integrating the results of (1 and (2.

  4. Geographic Information System-Allocation Model for Forest Path: A Case Study in Ayer Hitam Forest Reserve, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Hasmadi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forest road planning requires a host of information, particularly the availability of spatial and non-spatial data. The requirement of a planning system or tools to gather, integrate and manipulate all data is essential. The ability of Geographic Information System (GIS to integrate such massive information and develop a spatial model of earth features will lead to time and cost reduction and allows analysis of spatial problems more effective than the traditional method. Approach: The objective of this study was to test the potential of GIS in modeling forest road allocation in Ayer Hitam Forest Reserve (AHFR, Selangor, Malaysia. This study is also to compare a road profile (new path generated from GIS approach (new path with existing forest road and allocates the best road path for compartment 2 and 14. Data from digital topographic map was used to generate slope class, elevation class, direction and distance. New road paths were determined using spatial analyst. Several module or technique that used were cost weight, reclassify, raster calculator and shortest path modeling. Results: Results showed that road path generated from GIS technique was shorter and avoid more unnecessary slope and elevation. Road profiles such as elevation, slope and length were analyzed and discussed. Conclusion: The result clearly revealed that GIS has strength and played a vital role in modeling forest road allocation effectively and reduced time consuming.

  5. Exposure estimates using urban plume dispersion and traffic microsimulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.J.; Mueller, C.; Bush, B.; Stretz, P.

    1997-12-01

    The goal of this research effort was to demonstrate a capability for analyzing emergency response issues resulting from accidental or mediated airborne toxic releases in an urban setting. In the first year of the program, the authors linked a system of fluid dynamics, plume dispersion, and vehicle transportation models developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to study the dispersion of a plume in an urban setting and the resulting exposures to vehicle traffic. This research is part of a larger laboratory-directed research and development project for studying the relationships between urban infrastructure elements and natural systems.

  6. Modeling microalgae cultivation productivities in different geographic locations - estimation method for idealized photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, Anette; Lehr, Florian; Posten, Clemens; Schaub, Georg

    2012-04-01

    Microalgae can be used to produce versatile high-value fuels, such as methane, biodiesel, ethanol, or hydrogen gas. One of the most important factors that influence the economics of microalgae cultivation is the primary production of biomass per unit area. This is determined by productivity rates during cultivation, which are influenced by the local climate conditions (solar irradiation, temperature). To compare locations in different climate regions for microalgae cultivation, a mathematical model for an idealized closed photobioreactor was developed. The applied growth kinetics were based on theoretical maximum photon-conversion efficiencies (for the conversion of solar energy to chemical energy in the form of biomass). Known or estimated temperature effects for different algal strains were incorporated. The model was used to calculate hourly average areal productivity rates as well as annual primary production values under local conditions at seven example locations. Here, hourly weather data (solar irradiance and air temperature) were taken into account. According to these model calculations, maximum annual yields were achieved in regions with high irradiation and temperature patterns in or near the optimum range of the specific algal strain (here, desert and equatorial humid climates). The developed model can be used as a tool to assess and compare individual locations for microalgae cultivation.

  7. A Unifying Model for the Analysis of Phenotypic, Genetic and Geographic Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guillot, Gilles; Rena, Sabrina; Ledevin, Ronan

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of evolutionary units (species, populations) requires integrating several kinds of data such as genetic or phenotypic markers or spatial information, in order to get a comprehensive view concerning the dierentiation of the units. We propose a statistical model with a double original a...

  8. Vertical Integration of Geographic Information Sciences: A Recruitment Model for GIS Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jaehyung; Huynh, Niem Tu; McGehee, Thomas Lee

    2011-01-01

    An innovative vertical integration model for recruiting to GIS education was introduced and tested following four driving forces: curriculum development, GIS presentations, institutional collaboration, and faculty training. Curriculum development was a useful approach to recruitment, student credit hour generation, and retention-rate improvement.…

  9. Application of a Geographic Information System to Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-02-01

    integrating the continuity of mass equation over the whole basin. 23 Seader , 1974 (32). A model called "DYIAH Ila is used to proj ect land use patterns for the...Data, Eastern Mendocino County, -California. USDA, Soil Conservation Service, Ukiah, California. 94 32. Seader , D. and S. Grava, 1971. "A Demonstration

  10. Extending Geographic Weights of Evidence Models for Use in Location Based Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonwalkar, Mukul Dinkar

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the use and modeling of spatio-temporal data for the purposes of providing applications for location based services. One of the major issues in dealing with spatio-temporal data for location based services is the availability and sparseness of such data. Other than the hardware costs associated with collecting movement…

  11. Vertical Integration of Geographic Information Sciences: A Recruitment Model for GIS Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jaehyung; Huynh, Niem Tu; McGehee, Thomas Lee

    2011-01-01

    An innovative vertical integration model for recruiting to GIS education was introduced and tested following four driving forces: curriculum development, GIS presentations, institutional collaboration, and faculty training. Curriculum development was a useful approach to recruitment, student credit hour generation, and retention-rate improvement.…

  12. Aeronautical geographic data modeling based on GML%基于GML的航空地理数据建模

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘艳; 顾春艳

    2012-01-01

    Aeronautical information is an important type of geospatial data to ensure the safety and efficiency for air traffic. Currently, aeronautical information service (AIS) pro- vide these data to users by the medium of aeronautical chart, aeronautical information pub- lic (AIP), notice to airman (NOTA M), and so on. We are in the age of the Internet, sat- ellite navigation and computer networks, yet our approach to aeronautical geospatial data distribution is still based on paper charts, paper documentation and telex-based text mes- sages. Systems exist in isolation. Many of the data is entered more than twice in different computers using a keyboard rather than via file transfer or database transactions. To satisfy new requirements for the Global Air Traffic Management Operational Con- cept, aeronautical information services should be transferred to support a digital, real- time, accredited and secure aeronautical information environment. As an open geospatial data standard, GML gives aeronautical information feature coding method and interchan- ging format. Much has been done in air traffic community, and the technology has become more mature and is widely used. EUROCONTROL and FAA have developed AIXM (Aeronautical Information Exchange Model) based on GML. In Europe, the European AIS Database (EAD) provide unique reference database of aeronautical information on be- half of AIXM. In Chinese air traffic community, unique aeronautical geospatial data model has been considered as the key to ensure quality, integrity and interoperation of the aeronautical in- formation. But there is littlematerial progress on the data modeling. Based on studies on the characteristic of aeronautical information, the paper analyzed the mapping aeronautical data between and GML. Taking the basic aeronautical information database in Airline Management System as an example, an aeronautical geographic data model has been brought forward in this paper. Studies have shown that

  13. Improving Global Models of Remotely Sensed Ocean Chlorophyll Content Using Partial Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholizadeh, H.; Robeson, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Empirical models have been widely used to estimate global chlorophyll content from remotely sensed data. Here, we focus on the standard NASA empirical models that use blue-green band ratios. These band ratio ocean color (OC) algorithms are in the form of fourth-order polynomials and the parameters of these polynomials (i.e. coefficients) are estimated from the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Data set (NOMAD). Most of the points in this data set have been sampled from tropical and temperate regions. However, polynomial coefficients obtained from this data set are used to estimate chlorophyll content in all ocean regions with different properties such as sea-surface temperature, salinity, and downwelling/upwelling patterns. Further, the polynomial terms in these models are highly correlated. In sum, the limitations of these empirical models are as follows: 1) the independent variables within the empirical models, in their current form, are correlated (multicollinear), and 2) current algorithms are global approaches and are based on the spatial stationarity assumption, so they are independent of location. Multicollinearity problem is resolved by using partial least squares (PLS). PLS, which transforms the data into a set of independent components, can be considered as a combined form of principal component regression (PCR) and multiple regression. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) is also used to investigate the validity of spatial stationarity assumption. GWR solves a regression model over each sample point by using the observations within its neighbourhood. PLS results show that the empirical method underestimates chlorophyll content in high latitudes, including the Southern Ocean region, when compared to PLS (see Figure 1). Cluster analysis of GWR coefficients also shows that the spatial stationarity assumption in empirical models is not likely a valid assumption.

  14. Integration of a Hydrological Model within a Geographical Information System: Application to a Forest Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris Fotakis

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Watershed simulation software used for operational purposes must possess both dependability of results and flexibility in parameter selection and testing. The UBC watershed model (UBCWM contains a wide spectrum of parameters expressing meteorological, geological, as well as ecological watershed characteristics. The hydrological model was coupled to the MapInfo GIS and the software created was named Watershed Mapper (WM. WM is endowed with several features permitting operational utilization. These include input data and basin geometry visualization, land use/cover and soil simulation, exporting of statistical results and thematic maps and interactive variation of disputed parameters. For the application of WM two hypothetical scenarios of forest fires were examined in a study watershed. Four major rainfall events were selected from 12-year daily precipitation data and the corresponding peak flows were estimated for the base line data and hypothetical scenarios. A significant increase was observed as an impact of forest fires on peak flows. Due to its flexibility the combined tool described herein may be utilized in modeling long-term hydrological changes in the context of unsteady hydrological analyses.

  15. Water quality control in Third River Reservoir (Argentina using geographical information systems and linear regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Ledesma

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Water quality is traditionally monitored and evaluated based upon field data collected at limited locations. The storage capacity of reservoirs is reduced by deposits of suspended matter. The major factors affecting surface water quality are suspended sediments, chlorophyll and nutrients. Modeling and monitoring the biogeochemical status of reservoirs can be done through data from remote sensors. Since the improvement of sensors’ spatial and spectral resolutions, satellites have been used to monitor the interior areas of bodies of water. Water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll-a concentration and secchi disk depth, were found to have a high correlation with transformed spectral variables derived from bands 1, 2, 3 and 4 of LANDSAT 5TM satellite. We created models of estimated responses in regard to values of chlorophyll-a. To do so, we used population models of single and multiple linear regression, whose parameters are associated with the reflectance data of bands 2 and 4 of the sub-image of the satellite, as well as the data of chlorophyll-a obtained in 25 selected stations. According to the physico-chemical analyzes performed, the characteristics of the water in the reservoir of Rio Tercero, correspond to somewhat hard freshwater with calcium bicarbonate. The water was classified as usable as a source of plant treatment, excellent for irrigation because of its low salinity and low residual sodium carbonate content, but unsuitable for animal consumption because of its low salt content.

  16. Predicting geographic and ecological distributions of triatomine species in the southern Mexican state of Puebla using ecological niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval-Ruiz, C A; Zumaquero-Rios, J L; Rojas-Soto, O R

    2008-05-01

    We analyzed the geographic distribution using ecological niche modeling of three species of triatomines distributed in the Mexican state of Puebla. Punctual records were gathered for a period of 5 yr of fieldwork sampling. We used the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) to achieve the potential distribution of the ecological niche of triatomines. The models showed that Triatoma barberi and Meccus pallidipennis are sympatric and widely distributed in the central-southern part of the state, whereas T. dimidata is restricted to the northern mountains of the state with no overlapping among other species, M. bassolsae was not modeled because of the scarce number of locality records. We highlighted the warm and dry conditions in southern Puebla as important potential areas for triatomine presence. Finally, we correlated the species potential presence with the human population at risk of acquiring Chagas disease by vector-borne transmission; it is showed that M. pallidipennis presents the highest values of both ecological and poverty risk scenarios representing the main potential vector in the state.

  17. Remote sensing, geographical information systems, and spatial modeling for analyzing public transit services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Changshan

    Public transit service is a promising transportation mode because of its potential to address urban sustainability. Current ridership of public transit, however, is very low in most urban regions, particularly those in the United States. This woeful transit ridership can be attributed to many factors, among which poor service quality is key. Given this, there is a need for transit planning and analysis to improve service quality. Traditionally, spatially aggregate data are utilized in transit analysis and planning. Examples include data associated with the census, zip codes, states, etc. Few studies, however, address the influences of spatially aggregate data on transit planning results. In this research, previous studies in transit planning that use spatially aggregate data are reviewed. Next, problems associated with the utilization of aggregate data, the so-called modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), are detailed and the need for fine resolution data to support public transit planning is argued. Fine resolution data is generated using intelligent interpolation techniques with the help of remote sensing imagery. In particular, impervious surface fraction, an important socio-economic indicator, is estimated through a fully constrained linear spectral mixture model using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data within the metropolitan area of Columbus, Ohio in the United States. Four endmembers, low albedo, high albedo, vegetation, and soil are selected to model heterogeneous urban land cover. Impervious surface fraction is estimated by analyzing low and high albedo endmembers. With the derived impervious surface fraction, three spatial interpolation methods, spatial regression, dasymetric mapping, and cokriging, are developed to interpolate detailed population density. Results suggest that cokriging applied to impervious surface is a better alternative for estimating fine resolution population density. With the derived fine resolution data, a multiple

  18. A new derivation of the shallow water equations in geographical coordinates and their application to the global barotropic ocean model (the DEBOT model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einšpigel, David; Martinec, Zdeněk

    2015-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a new global barotropic ocean model-the DEBOT model. The model is based on the shallow water equations which we newly express in geographical coordinates. The derivation includes the boundary conditions and the Reynolds tensor in a form used commonly in oceanography. The numerical model employs finite differences on an Arakawa-C grid in space and a generalized forward-backward scheme in time with a combined third-order Adams-Bashforth and fourth-order Adams-Moulton step. The validity of the model is demonstrated by the tests based on conservation integral invariants. As a practical application, we present ocean circulation simulations generated by the lunisolar tidal force.

  19. Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcer, Arnald; Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

    2016-04-01

    Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms' distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole-species and genetic-unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.

  20. Synthesizing system dynamics and geographic information systems in a new method to model and simulate environmental systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gharib, Sameh

    2008-07-01

    A new method to synthesize system dynamics (SD) with geographic information systems (GIS) is presented in this research. This new method employs the Object Oriented Paradigm (OOP) as a common platform for the integration process. Recently, GIS software such as ArcGIS has become fully Object-Oriented software, providing the ArcObjects developer kit as a collection of (COM-compliant) objects that can be linked/embedded within other O O software. Vensim software is an Object-Based simulation environment that can be used to build simulation models that may be linked to other applications through its dynamic link library (DLL). We developed a new application, referred to as SDGIS Application, using Microsoft Visual Basic to tightly couple the SD model components with their counterparts in the GIS model (i.e., stocks and flows with the associated geo-referenced features). Initially, the GIS model provides the spatial information to the SD model. The SD model, through simulation, identifies the changes in the spatial features over time and communicates them back to the GIS model. These changes in space in turn impact the decisions taken by the user. Thus, processes can be modelled in time and space in an integrated way while capturing underlying accumulation process, the feedbacks, and nonlinearities. The underlying approach, resulting in creation of the SDGIS application, provides a much-needed capability to model spatially distributed, dynamic feedback processes in time and space, while facilitating an understanding of the interactions between different components within the system. The main strength of this approach is the two-way simultaneous exchange of data between the SD and GIS, providing feedback in time and space. The technique used to build the SDGIS application is different than existing techniques for dynamic modelling such as Cellular Automata; Agent-Based simulation and GIS Model-Builder, and addresses most of the limitations present in these techniques

  1. Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy...... conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark....... A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing...

  2. Geographic Information Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, William F; Delmerico, Alan M

    2009-01-01

    This chapter presents an overview of the development, capabilities, and utilization of geographic information systems (GIS). There are nearly an unlimited number of applications that are relevant to GIS because virtually all human interactions, natural and man-made features, resources, and populations have a geographic component. Everything happens somewhere and the location often has a role that affects what occurs. This role is often called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation, which exists when a phenomenon is not randomly geographically distributed. GIS has a number of key capabilities that are needed to conduct a spatial analysis to assess this spatial dependence. This chapter presents these capabilities (e.g., georeferencing, adjacency/distance measures, overlays) and provides a case study to illustrate how GIS can be used for both research and planning. Although GIS has developed into a relatively mature application for basic functions, development is needed to more seamlessly integrate spatial statistics and models.The issue of location, especially the geography of human activities, interactions between humanity and nature, and the distribution and location of natural resources and features, is one of the most basic elements of scientific inquiry. Conceptualizations and physical maps of geographic space have existed since the beginning of time because all human activity takes place in a geographic context. Representing objects in space, basically where things are located, is a critical aspect of the natural, social, and applied sciences. Throughout history there have been many methods of characterizing geographic space, especially maps created by artists, mariners, and others eventually leading to the development of the field of cartography. It is no surprise that the digital age has launched a major effort to utilize geographic data, but not just as maps. A geographic information system (GIS) facilitates the collection, analysis, and reporting of

  3. Sperm DNA integrity in relation to exposure to environmental perfluoroalkyl substances - a study of spouses of pregnant women in three geographical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Specht, Ina Olmer; Hougaard, Karin; Spanò, Marcello;

    2012-01-01

    S) and concurrent DNA damage in spermatozoa by sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) and in situ terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL) assay, apoptotic markers in semen (Fas-receptor and Bcl-xL), and reproductive hormones in serum. No association between PFASs and SCSA, apoptotic...... markers or reproductive hormones emerged. We observed a slight increase in SHBG and TUNEL-positivity with increased PFOA exposure in men from Greenland. Thus, consistent evidence that PFAS exposure interferes with sperm DNA fragmentation, apoptosis or reproductive hormones was not found....

  4. Evacuation time estimate for a total pedestrian evacuation using queuing network model and volunteered geographic information

    CERN Document Server

    Kunwar, Bharat; Johansson, Anders

    2015-01-01

    Estimating city evacuation time is a non-trivial problem due to the interaction between thousands of individual agents, giving rise to various collective phenomena, such as bottleneck formation, intermittent flow and stop-and-go waves. We present a mean field approach to draw relationships between road network spatial attributes, number of evacuees and resultant evacuation time estimate (ETE). We divide $50$ medium sized UK cities into a total of $697$ catchment areas which we define as an area where all agents share the same nearest exit node. In these catchment areas, 90% of agents are within $5.4$ km of their designated exit node. We establish a characteristic flow rate from catchment area attributes (population, distance to exit node and exit node width) and a mean flow rate in free-flow regime by simulating total evacuations using an agent based `queuing network' model. We use these variables to determine a relationship between catchment area attributes and resultant ETE. This relationship could enable e...

  5. Observed & Modeled Changes in the Onset of Spring: A Preliminary Comparative Analysis by Geographic Regions of the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, C.

    2012-12-01

    Phenology, the study of seasonal life cycle events in plants and animals, is a well-recognized indicator of climate change impacts on people and nature. Models, experiments, and observational studies show changes in plant and animal phenology as a function of environmental change. Current research aims to improve our understanding of changes by enhancing existing models, analyzing observations, synthesizing previous research, and comparing outputs. Local to regional climatology is a critical driver of phenological variation of organisms across scales. Because plants respond to the cumulative effects of daily weather over an extended period, timing of life cycle events are effective integrators of climate data. One specific measure, leaf emergence, is particularly important because it often shows a strong response to temperature change, and is crucial for assessment of processes related to start and duration of the growing season. Schwartz et al. (2006) developed a suite of models (the "Spring Indices") linking plant development from historical data from leafing and flowering of cloned lilac and honeysuckle with basic climatic drivers to monitor changes related to the start of the spring growing season. These models can be generated at any location that has daily max-min temperature time series. The new version of these models is called the "Extended Spring Indices," or SI-x (Schwartz et al. in press). The SI-x model output (first leaf date and first bloom date) are produced similarly to the original models (SI-o), but do not incorporate accumulated chilling hours; rather energy accumulation starts for all stations on January 1. This change extends the locations SI model output can be generated into the sub-tropics, allowing full coverage of the conterminous USA. Both SI model versions are highly correlated, with mean bias and mean absolute differences around two days or less, and a similar bias and absolute errors when compared to cloned lilac data. To

  6. Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorka Merino

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Global marine fisheries production has reached a maximum and may even be declining. Underlying this trend is a well-understood sequence of development, overexploitation, depletion and in some instances collapse of individual fish stocks, a pattern that can sequentially link geographically distant populations. Ineffective governance, economic considerations and climate impacts are often responsible for this sequence, although the relative contribution of each factor is contentious. In this paper we use a global bioeconomic model to explore the synergistic effects of climate variability, economic pressures and management measures in causing or avoiding this sequence. The model shows how a combination of climate-induced variability in the underlying fish population production, particular patterns of demand for fish products and inadequate management is capable of driving the world’s fisheries into development, overexploitation, collapse and recovery phases consistent with observations. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a sequential pattern of overexploitation can emerge as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional environmental fluctuations and a globalized trade system. This situation is avoidable through adaptive management measures that ensure the sustainability of regional production systems in the face of increasing global environmental change and markets. It is concluded that global management measures are needed to ensure that global food supply from marine products is optimized while protecting long-term ecosystem services across the world’s oceans.

  7. Spatial Analysis of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in China Using a Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Wu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV, which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity, the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010–2012. We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1 meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2 a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3 our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies.

  8. Data model management, with the use of artificial intelligence, for a geographic information system in the energetic sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayi Sánchez Fleitas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A Geographic Information System (GIS, named SIGOBE v 3.0, for the electric sector is development. The Integral Management System of the ECIE (SIGECIE and the Integrated Network Management System (SIGERE databases are taxed alfanumeric information. Studies determined the need for a model for data management, contributing to the GIS development, on a conceptual schema domain capable of responding to different user requests, through automatic query as support decision making. To provide the GIS with a conceptual basis an ontology is determined, which will be expressed by logical descriptive, to generate the traits of a case-based reasoning that allows automation of consultations. The final quality of GIS was verified according to the quality standards of the ISO-9126:2002 standard. The proposed model and its functionality contributes to: facilitate decision-making at different levels, perform risk analysis to have the defects of electrical installations, reduce the time of failure to the key areas of the country, organize the travel of trucks more efficiently and locate electrical faults more accurately.

  9. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  10. Modelling Spatial Patterns and Drivers of Wildfires in Honduras Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez Vasquez, M. C.; Chen, C. F.; Chiang, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    Forests in Honduras are one of the most important resources as they provide a wide range of environmental, economic, and social benefits. However, they are endangered as a result of the relentless occurrence of wildfires during the dry season. Despite the knowledge acquired by the population concerning the effects of wildfires, the frequency is increasing, a pattern attributable to the numerous ignition sources linked to human activity. The purpose of this study is to integrate the wildfire occurrences throughout the 2010-2015 period with a series of anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic variables using the random forest algorithm (RF). We use a series of variables that represent the anthropogenic activity, the flammability of vegetation, climatic conditions, and topography. To represent the anthropogenic activity, we included the continuous distances to rivers, roads, and settlements. To characterize the vegetation flammability, we used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI) acquired from MODIS surface reflectance data. Additionally, we included the topographical variables elevation, slope, and solar radiation derived from the ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM V2). To represent the climatic conditions, we employed the land surface temperature (LST) product from the MODIS sensor and the WorldClim precipitation data. We analyzed the explanatory variables through native RF variable importance analysis and jackknife test, and the results revealed that the dry fuel conditions and low precipitation combined with the proximity to non-paved roads were the major drivers of wildfires. Furthermore, we predicted the areas with highest wildfire susceptibility, which are located mainly in the central and eastern regions of the country, within coniferous and mixed forests. Results acquired were validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the point biserial correlation

  11. TREXMO: a translation tool to support the use of regulatory occupational exposure models

    OpenAIRE

    Savic, Nenad; Racordon, Dimitri; Buchs, Didier; Gasic, Bojan; Vernez, Dernez

    2016-01-01

    Occupational exposure models vary significantly in their complexity, purpose, and the level of expertise required from the user. Different parameters in the same model may lead to different exposure estimates for the same exposure situation. This paper presents a tool developed to deal with this concern-TREXMO or TRanslation of EXposure MOdels. TREXMO integrates six commonly used occupational exposure models, namely, ART v.1.5, STOFFENMANAGER(®) v.5.1, ECETOC TRA v.3, MEASE v.1.02.01, EMKG-EX...

  12. Predictive models of poly(ethylene-terephthalate) film degradation under multi-factor accelerated weathering exposures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Abdulkerim Gok; David K Ngendahimana; Cara L Fagerholm; Roger H French; Jiayang Sun; Laura S Bruckman

    2017-01-01

    Accelerated weathering exposures were performed on poly(ethylene-terephthalate) (PET) films. Longitudinal multi-level predictive models as a function of PET grades and exposure types were developed for the change in yellowness index...

  13. Evaluation Models for E-Learning Platform in Riyadh City Universities (RCU with Applied of Geographical Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulaziz I. Alharrah

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available E-learning that integrates digital knowledge content, network and information technology has become an emerging learning method. As the e-learning platform approach is becoming an important tool to allow the flexibility and quality requested by such a kind of learning process. There is a new kind of problem faced by organizations consisting in the selection of the most suitable e-learning platform. This paper proposes evaluation model for E-Learning platform in Riyadh City universities (RCU with Applied Geographic Information System (GIS. The E-Learning platform solution selection is a multiple criteria decision-making problem that needs to be addressed objectively taking into consideration the relative weights of the criteria for any organization. We formulate the quoted multi criteria problem as a decision hierarchy to be solved using GIS. AGIS-based evaluation index system and web-based evaluating platform were established. In this paper we will show the general evaluation strategy and some obtained results using our model to evaluate some existing commercial platforms.The results of evaluation model are outlined as follows: Total weights of the proposed framework in management feature is 20.25/25, in collaborative feature is 9.2/10, in adaption learning path is 6.8/10 and in interactive learning object is 5/5. The total weights of all features are 41.25/50. In this study an evaluation model was applied on Riyadh City universities like KSU, IMAMU, NAUSS, YU and FU. Then, the results were compared with each other. The total weighs of KSU was 41. While the total weights of FU, IMAMU, YU and NAUSS was 40, 37, 36 and 32, respectively. Evaluation process shows that the proposed framework satisfied the objectives with applied GIS.

  14. Land Suitability Modeling using a Geographic Socio-Environmental Niche-Based Approach: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heumann, Benjamin W; Walsh, Stephen J; Verdery, Ashton M; McDaniel, Phillip M; Rindfuss, Ronald R

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the pattern-process relations of land use/land cover change is an important area of research that provides key insights into human-environment interactions. The suitability or likelihood of occurrence of land use such as agricultural crop types across a human-managed landscape is a central consideration. Recent advances in niche-based, geographic species distribution modeling (SDM) offer a novel approach to understanding land suitability and land use decisions. SDM links species presence-location data with geospatial information and uses machine learning algorithms to develop non-linear and discontinuous species-environment relationships. Here, we apply the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model for land suitability modeling by adapting niche theory to a human-managed landscape. In this article, we use data from an agricultural district in Northeastern Thailand as a case study for examining the relationships between the natural, built, and social environments and the likelihood of crop choice for the commonly grown crops that occur in the Nang Rong District - cassava, heavy rice, and jasmine rice, as well as an emerging crop, fruit trees. Our results indicate that while the natural environment (e.g., elevation and soils) is often the dominant factor in crop likelihood, the likelihood is also influenced by household characteristics, such as household assets and conditions of the neighborhood or built environment. Furthermore, the shape of the land use-environment curves illustrates the non-continuous and non-linear nature of these relationships. This approach demonstrates a novel method of understanding non-linear relationships between land and people. The article concludes with a proposed method for integrating the niche-based rules of land use allocation into a dynamic land use model that can address both allocation and quantity of agricultural crops.

  15. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seitz, R.R. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Cook, J.R. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States)

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided.

  16. A relative Potential Erosion Detection (PED) model for the upper Buff Bay catchment, parish of Portland, Jamaica: A Geographical Information System application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacGillivray, C.M.I.; Donovan, S.K.

    2007-01-01

    This research introduces a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) model that predicts the location and relative susceptibility of humid subtropical hillslopes to sheetwash erosion. The extent of the erosion was based on the conservation potential of the existing vegetation cover. This is an original

  17. A Relative Potential Erosion Detection (PED) model for the upper Buff Bay catchment, parish of Portland, Jamaica: A Geographical Information System application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    MacGillivray, C.M.I.; Donovan, S.K.

    2007-01-01

    This research introduces a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) model that predicts the location and relative susceptibility of humid subtropical hillslopes to sheetwash erosion. The extent of the erosion was based on the conservation potential of the existing vegetation cover. This is an original

  18. Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

    2010-01-01

    The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

  19. Digital Elevation Model (DEM), digital elevation model, Published in unknown, Louisiana State University - Louisiana Geographic Information Center.

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This Digital Elevation Model (DEM) dataset, was produced all or in part from LIDAR information as of unknown. It is described as 'digital elevation model'. Data by...

  20. Predictive Modeling of Terrestrial Radiation Exposure from Geologic Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malchow, Russell L. [National Security Technologies, LLC; Haber, Daniel University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Burnley, Pamela [University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Marsac, Kara [University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Hausrath, Elisabeth [University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Adcock, Christopher [University of Nevada, Las Vegas

    2015-01-01

    Aerial gamma ray surveys are important for those working in nuclear security and industry for determining locations of both anthropogenic radiological sources and natural occurrences of radionuclides. During an aerial gamma ray survey, a low flying aircraft, such as a helicopter, flies in a linear pattern across the survey area while measuring the gamma emissions with a sodium iodide (NaI) detector. Currently, if a gamma ray survey is being flown in an area, the only way to correct for geologic sources of gamma rays is to have flown the area previously. This is prohibitively expensive and would require complete national coverage. This project’s goal is to model the geologic contribution to radiological backgrounds using published geochemical data, GIS software, remote sensing, calculations, and modeling software. K, U and Th are the three major gamma emitters in geologic material. U and Th are assumed to be in secular equilibrium with their daughter isotopes. If K, U, and Th abundance values are known for a given geologic unit the expected gamma ray exposure rate can be calculated using the Grasty equation or by modeling software. Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport software (MCNP), developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, is modeling software designed to simulate particles and their interactions with matter. Using this software, models have been created that represent various lithologies. These simulations randomly generate gamma ray photons at energy levels expected from natural radiologic sources. The photons take a random path through the simulated geologic media and deposit their energy at the end of their track. A series of nested spheres have been created and filled with simulated atmosphere to record energy deposition. Energies deposited are binned in the same manner as the NaI detectors used during an aerial survey. These models are used in place of the simplistic Grasty equation as they take into account absorption properties of the lithology which the

  1. Modeling the geographic distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Micah; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2016-01-01

    In addition to serving as vectors of several other human pathogens, the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, and western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, are the primary vectors of the spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi ) that causes Lyme disease, the most common vector-borne disease in the United States. Over the past two decades, the geographic range of I. pacificus has changed modestly while, in contrast, the I. scapularis range has expanded substantially, which likely contributes to the concurrent expansion in the distribution of human Lyme disease cases in the Northeastern, North-Central and Mid-Atlantic states. Identifying counties that contain suitable habitat for these ticks that have not yet reported established vector populations can aid in targeting limited vector surveillance resources to areas where tick invasion and potential human risk are likely to occur. We used county-level vector distribution information and ensemble modeling to map the potential distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus in the contiguous United States as a function of climate, elevation, and forest cover. Results show that I. pacificus is currently present within much of the range classified by our model as suitable for establishment. In contrast, environmental conditions are suitable for I. scapularis to continue expanding its range into northwestern Minnesota, central and northern Michigan, within the Ohio River Valley, and inland from the southeastern and Gulf coasts. Overall, our ensemble models show suitable habitat for I. scapularis in 441 eastern counties and for I. pacificus in 11 western counties where surveillance records have not yet supported classification of the counties as established.

  2. Geographic Information Systems (GIS Based Village Roads Management Model For Monitoring, Maintenance And Repairing Purposes: Example Of Denizli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yetiş Şazi Murat

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Geographic information systems has become a tool that is often used in many fields especially in developed countries, yet in Turkey while it's been recognized and acknowledged by central and local authorities, its use in public services is still in only the crawling stages.Within the borders of Denizli Provincial Administration Roads and Transportation Services Directorship, a GIS-supported study has been undertaken in order to update information on all village roads in the related area of responsibility and service and to aid the Directorship's country infrastructure service with modern and technical methods over different analysis results obtained. In this study, executed with the Strategy Development Directorship, through using developed layers, topographic maps, satellite photos, etc. devised in fact for different purposes, it was aimed to ensure that the service concerning village roads are based on correct and update data. In line with the fast and sensitive analysis results obtained in this study as an attempt to ensure that public resources are used efficiently, it was aimed to put forth a pilot project to be used later on as a product which is thought to serve as a model to help re-plan village road constructions, determine lacking and incomplete cases, thereby establish a complete and integrated management plan.

  3. Development of an Antarctic digital elevation model by integrating cartographic and remotely sensed data: A geographic information system based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongxing; Jezek, Kenneth C.; Li, Biyan

    1999-10-01

    We present a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the Antarctic. It was created in a geographic information system (GIS) environment by integrating the best available topographic data from a variety of sources. Extensive GIS-based error detection and correction operations ensured that our DEM is free of gross errors. The carefully designed interpolation algorithms for different types of source data and incorporation of surface morphologic information preserved and enhanced the fine surface structures present in the source data. The effective control of adverse edge effects and the use of the Hermite blending weight function in data merging minimized the discontinuities between different types of data, leading to a seamless and topographically consistent DEM throughout the Antarctic. This new DEM provides exceptional topographical details and represents a substantial improvement in horizontal resolution and vertical accuracy over the earlier, continental-scale renditions, particularly in mountainous and coastal regions. It has a horizontal resolution of 200 m over the rugged mountains, 400 m in the coastal regions, and approximately 5 km in the interior. The vertical accuracy of the DEM is estimated at about 100-130 m over the rugged mountainous area, better than 2 m for the ice shelves, better than 15 m for the interior ice sheet, and about 35 m for the steeper ice sheet perimeter. The Antarctic DEM can be obtained from the authors.

  4. A State-of-the-Art Review on the Integration of Building Information Modeling (BIM and Geographic Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The integration of Building Information Modeling (BIM and Geographic Information System (GIS has been identified as a promising but challenging topic to transform information towards the generation of knowledge and intelligence. Achievement of integrating these two concepts and enabling technologies will have a significant impact on solving problems in the civil, building and infrastructure sectors. However, since GIS and BIM were originally developed for different purposes, numerous challenges are being encountered for the integration. To better understand these two different domains, this paper reviews the development and dissimilarities of GIS and BIM, the existing integration methods, and investigates their potential in various applications. This study shows that the integration methods are developed for various reasons and aim to solve different problems. The parameters influencing the choice can be summarized and named as “EEEF” criteria: effectiveness, extensibility, effort, and flexibility. Compared with other methods, semantic web technologies provide a promising and generalized integration solution. However, the biggest challenges of this method are the large efforts required at early stage and the isolated development of ontologies within one particular domain. The isolation problem also applies to other methods. Therefore, openness is the key of the success of BIM and GIS integration.

  5. Modelling of chosen selectable factors of the develop of tourism with geographic IT and fuzzy sets using

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka Machalová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The tourism is the significant tool of prosperity not only of the well-known touristic regions, but it is significant potential developing element of not so developed provincial regions. Develop and placements of tourism are dependent on factors (conditions that influence its use in concrete regions. These factors are classified into selectable, localisation, and realisation (localisation and realisation factors issue was published as a part of solution of the research plan of FBE No. MSM 6215648904, part 03. The selectable factors determine the possibilities of the region to develop tourism in demand function. The landscape character and the environment appertain to these objective presumptions. But these presumptions were subjective perceived. The aim of this paper is to make methodology of evaluation of introduced selectable factors. Geographic information technology will be use for spatial modelling. Theory of fuzzy sets, with its ability to catch the vagueness, will be use for defining of fuzzygeoelements and for the making several fuzzylayers. The fuzzylayers will be come into map algebra for whole formulation of these selectable factors. The methodology will be verified on territory micro region Babi lom (south of Moravia.

  6. TREXMO: A Translation Tool to Support the Use of Regulatory Occupational Exposure Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savic, Nenad; Racordon, Dimitri; Buchs, Didier; Gasic, Bojan; Vernez, David

    2016-10-01

    Occupational exposure models vary significantly in their complexity, purpose, and the level of expertise required from the user. Different parameters in the same model may lead to different exposure estimates for the same exposure situation. This paper presents a tool developed to deal with this concern-TREXMO or TRanslation of EXposure MOdels. TREXMO integrates six commonly used occupational exposure models, namely, ART v.1.5, STOFFENMANAGER(®) v.5.1, ECETOC TRA v.3, MEASE v.1.02.01, EMKG-EXPO-TOOL, and EASE v.2.0. By enabling a semi-automatic translation between the parameters of these six models, TREXMO facilitates their simultaneous use. For a given exposure situation, defined by a set of parameters in one of the models, TREXMO provides the user with the most appropriate parameters to use in the other exposure models. Results showed that, once an exposure situation and parameters were set in ART, TREXMO reduced the number of possible outcomes in the other models by 1-4 orders of magnitude. The tool should manage to reduce the uncertain entry or selection of parameters in the six models, improve between-user reliability, and reduce the time required for running several models for a given exposure situation. In addition to these advantages, registrants of chemicals and authorities should benefit from more reliable exposure estimates for the risk characterization of dangerous chemicals under Regulation, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of CHemicals (REACH).

  7. Maximum Entropy Niche-Based Modeling (Maxent) of Potential Geographical Distributions of Lobesia Botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in China

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    Part 1: Simulation, Optimization, Monitoring and Control Technology; International audience; Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is one of the most destructive pests of grape in the Palearctic region. The potential geographical distribution of this pest is important to agriculture security. In this study, Maxent and ArcGIS were used to project the potential geographical distribution of L. botrana in China under the current climate. The result indicated th...

  8. Crossing physical simulations of snow conditions and a geographic model of ski area to assess ski resorts vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Hugues; Spandre, Pierre; Morin, Samuel; George-Marcelpoil, Emmanuelle; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Lejeune, Yves

    2016-04-01

    In order to face climate change, meteorological variability and the recurrent lack of natural snow on the ground, ski resorts adaptation often rely on technical responses. Indeed, since the occurrence of episodes with insufficient snowfalls in the early 1990's, snowmaking has become an ordinary practice of snow management, comparable to grooming, and contributes to optimise the operation of ski resorts. It also participates to the growth of investments and is associated with significant operating costs, and thus represents a new source of vulnerability. The assessment of the actual effects of snowmaking and of snow management practices in general is a real concern for the future of the ski industry. The principal model use to simulate snow conditions in resorts, Ski Sim, has also been moving this way. Its developers introduced an artificial input of snow on ski area to complete natural snowfalls and considered different organisations of ski lifts (lower and upper zones). However the use of a degree-day model prevents them to consider the specific properties of artificial snow and the impact of grooming on the snowpack. A first proof of concept in the French Alps has shown the feasibility and the interest to cross the geographic model of ski areas and the output of the physically-based reanalysis of snow conditions SAFRAN - Crocus (François et al., CRST 2014). Since these initial developments, several ways have been explored to refine our model. A new model of ski areas has been developed. Our representation is now based on gravity derived from a DEM and ski lift localisation. A survey about snow management practices also allowed us to define criteria in order to model snowmaking areas given ski areas properties and tourism infrastructures localisation. We also suggest to revisit the assessment of ski resort viability based on the "one hundred days rule" based on natural snow depth only. Indeed, the impact of snow management must be considered so as to propose

  9. Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Aaron Raymond

    This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust

  10. A Bayesian kriging model for estimating residential exposure to air pollution of children living in a high-risk area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Biggeri, Annibale; Grisotto, Laura; Barbone, Fabio; Catelan, Dolores

    2013-11-01

    A core challenge in epidemiological analysis of the impact of exposure to air pollution on health is assessment of the individual exposure for subjects at risk. Geographical information systems (GIS)-based pollution mapping, such as kriging, has become one of the main tools for evaluating individual exposure to ambient pollutants. We applied universal Bayesian kriging to estimate the residential exposure to gaseous air pollutants for children living in a high-risk area (Milazzo- Valle del Mela in Sicily, Italy). Ad hoc air quality monitoring campaigns were carried out: 12 weekly measurements for sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were obtained from 21 passive dosimeters located at each school yard of the study area from November 2007 to April 2008. Universal Bayesian kriging was performed to predict individual exposure levels at each residential address for all 6- to 12-years-old children attending primary school at various locations in the study area. Land use, altitude, distance to main roads and population density were included as covariates in the models. A large geographical heterogeneity in air quality was recorded suggesting complex exposure patterns. We obtained a predicted mean level of 25.78 (± 10.61) µg/m(3) of NO2 and 4.10 (± 2.71) µg/m(3) of SO2 at 1,682 children's residential addresses, with a normalised root mean squared error of 28% and 25%, respectively. We conclude that universal Bayesian kriging approach is a useful tool for the assessment of realistic exposure estimates with regard to ambient pollutants at home addresses. Its prediction uncertainty is highly informative and can be used for both designing subsequent campaigns and for improved modelling of epidemiological associations.

  11. A Bayesian kriging model for estimating residential exposure to air pollution of children living in a high-risk area in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A core challenge in epidemiological analysis of the impact of exposure to air pollution on health is assessment of the individual exposure for subjects at risk. Geographical information systems (GIS-based pollution mapping, such as kriging, has become one of the main tools for evaluating individual exposure to ambient pollutants. We applied universal Bayesian kriging to estimate the residential exposure to gaseous air pollutants for children living in a high-risk area (Milazzo- Valle del Mela in Sicily, Italy. Ad hoc air quality monitoring campaigns were carried out: 12 weekly measurements for sulphur dioxide (SO2 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 were obtained from 21 passive dosimeters located at each school yard of the study area from November 2007 to April 2008. Universal Bayesian kriging was performed to predict individual exposure levels at each residential address for all 6- to 12-years-old children attending primary school at various locations in the study area. Land use, altitude, distance to main roads and population density were included as covariates in the models. A large geographical heterogeneity in air quality was recorded suggesting complex exposure patterns. We obtained a predicted mean level of 25.78 (±10.61 μg/m3 of NO2 and 4.10 (±2.71 μg/m3 of SO2 at 1,682 children’s residential addresses, with a normalised root mean squared error of 28% and 25%, respectively. We conclude that universal Bayesian kriging approach is a useful tool for the assessment of realistic exposure estimates with regard to ambient pollutants at home addresses. Its prediction uncertainty is highly informative and can be used for both designing subsequent campaigns and for improved modelling of epidemiological associations.

  12. Determining Potential Sites for Runoff Water Harvesting using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems-Based Modeling in Sinai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossam H. Elewa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Sinai is increasingly suffering from an overwhelming water crisis. Runoff Water Harvesting (RWH could be a solution for this problem. The determined promising drainage basins for RWH could be used by the decision makers to propose appropriate controlling systems to overcome the problem of water scarcity and for implementing runoff farming and rain-fed agriculture. Approach: Remote sensing, geographic information systems, watershed modeling system were integrated to extract a multi-criteria-decision support system of nine thematic layers, namely; volume of annual flood, lineaments frequency density, drainage frequency density, maximum flow distance, basin area, basin slope, basin length, average overland flow distance and soil infiltration. These criteria were used for conducting a Weighted Spatial Probability Modeling (WSPM to determine the potential areas for the RWH. The potential runoff available for harvesting was estimated by applying Finkel-SCS rainfall-runoff methods. Results: The WSPM classified Sinai into four classes that graded from high (3,201-6,695 km2, moderate (35,923-35,896 km2, low (13,185-16,652 km2, very low (1.38-5.57 km2 for RWH. Promising watersheds like those of Abu Taryfya, Hamma El Hassana, Gerafi, Watir, Geraia, Heridien, Sidri, Feiran and Alaawag, are categorized as high-moderate RWH potential basins. Conclusion: These basins could be investigated in detail with larger scale to determine the appropriate locations for implementing the RWH structures and techniques. Implementing systems and techniques of RWH in the potential watersheds could open new opportunities for sustainable development in the area.

  13. Toward an ontology framework supporting the integration of geographic information with modeling and simulation for critical infrastructure protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrosiano, John J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bent, Russell W [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Linger, Steve P [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Protecting the nation's infrastructure from natural disasters, inadvertent failures, or intentional attacks is a major national security concern. Gauging the fragility of infrastructure assets, and understanding how interdependencies across critical infrastructures affect their behavior, is essential to predicting and mitigating cascading failures, as well as to planning for response and recovery. Modeling and simulation (M&S) is an indispensable part of characterizing this complex system of systems and anticipating its response to disruptions. Bringing together the necessary components to perform such analyses produces a wide-ranging and coarse-grained computational workflow that must be integrated with other analysis workflow elements. There are many points in both types of work flows in which geographic information (GI) services are required. The GIS community recognizes the essential contribution of GI in this problem domain as evidenced by past OGC initiatives. Typically such initiatives focus on the broader aspects of GI analysis workflows, leaving concepts crucial to integrating simulations within analysis workflows to that community. Our experience with large-scale modeling of interdependent critical infrastructures, and our recent participation in a DRS initiative concerning interoperability for this M&S domain, has led to high-level ontological concepts that we have begun to assemble into an architecture that spans both computational and 'world' views of the problem, and further recognizes the special requirements of simulations that go beyond common workflow ontologies. In this paper we present these ideas, and offer a high-level ontological framework that includes key geospatial concepts as special cases of a broader view.

  14. Mapping the Global Potential Geographical Distribution of Black Locust (Robinia Pseudoacacia L. Using Herbarium Data and a Maximum Entropy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. is a tree species of high economic and ecological value, but is also considered to be highly invasive. Understanding the global potential distribution and ecological characteristics of this species is a prerequisite for its practical exploitation as a resource. Here, a maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt was used to simulate the potential distribution of this species around the world, and the dominant climatic factors affecting its distribution were selected by using a jackknife test and the regularized gain change during each iteration of the training algorithm. The results show that the MaxEnt model performs better than random, with an average test AUC value of 0.9165 (±0.0088. The coldness index, annual mean temperature and warmth index were the most important climatic factors affecting the species distribution, explaining 65.79% of the variability in the geographical distribution. Species response curves showed unimodal relationships with the annual mean temperature and warmth index, whereas there was a linear relationship with the coldness index. The dominant climatic conditions in the core of the black locust distribution are a coldness index of −9.8 °C–0 °C, an annual mean temperature of 5.8 °C–14.5 °C, a warmth index of 66 °C–168 °C and an annual precipitation of 508–1867 mm. The potential distribution of black locust is located mainly in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Chile and Argentina. The predictive map of black locust, climatic thresholds and species response curves can provide globally applicable guidelines and valuable information for policymakers and planners involved in the introduction, planting and invasion control of this species around the world.

  15. Modeling Exposure in the Tox21 in Vitro Bioassays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Fabian C; Henneberger, Luise; König, Maria; Bittermann, Kai; Linden, Lukas; Goss, Kai-Uwe; Escher, Beate I

    2017-05-15

    High-throughput in vitro bioassays are becoming increasingly important in the risk characterization of anthropogenic chemicals. Large databases gather nominal effect concentrations (Cnom) for diverse modes of action. However, the biologically effective concentration can substantially deviate due to differences in chemical partitioning. In this study, we modeled freely dissolved (Cfree), cellular (Ccell), and membrane concentrations (Cmem) in the Tox21 GeneBLAzer bioassays for a set of neutral and ionogenic organic chemicals covering a large physicochemical space. Cells and medium constituents were experimentally characterized for their lipid and protein content, and partition constants were either collected from the literature or predicted by mechanistic models. The chemicals exhibited multifaceted partitioning to proteins and lipids with distribution ratios spanning over 8 orders of magnitude. Modeled Cfree deviated over 5 orders of magnitude from Cnom and can be compared to in vivo effect data, environmental concentrations, and the unbound fraction in plasma, which is needed for the in vitro to in vivo extrapolation. Ccell was relatively constant for chemicals with membrane lipid-water distribution ratios of 1000 or higher and proportional to Cnom. Representing a sum parameter for exposure that integrates the entire dose from intracellular partitioning, Ccell is particularly suitable for the effect characterization of chemicals with multiple target sites and the calculation of their relative effect potencies. Effective membrane concentrations indicated that the specific effects of very hydrophobic chemicals in multiple bioassays are occurring at concentrations close to baseline toxicity. The equilibrium partitioning model including all relevant system parameters and a generic bioassay setup is attached as an excel workbook to this paper and can readily be applied to diverse in vitro bioassays.

  16. NEPR Geographic Zone Map 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This geographic zone map was created by interpreting satellite and aerial imagery, seafloor topography (bathymetry model), and the new NEPR Benthic Habitat Map...

  17. Stochastic modeling of near-field exposure to parabens in personal care products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Csiszar, Susan A.; Ernstoff, Alexi; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Exposure assessment is a key step in determining risks to chemicals in consumer goods, including personal care products (PCPs). Exposure models can be used to estimate exposures to chemicals in the absence of biomonitoring data and as tools in chemical risk prioritization and screening. We apply...... and pathway-specific exposures during both the use and disposal stages of a product. As a case study, we stochastically quantified population level exposures to parabens in PCPs, and compared estimates with biomarker values. We estimated exposure based on the usage of PCPs in the female US population, taking...

  18. Developing, Applying, and Evaluating Models for Rapid Screening of Chemical Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnot, J.; Shin, H.; Ernstoff, Alexi;

    2015-01-01

    to limited exposure data there is limited information on chemical use patterns and production and emission quantities. These data gaps require the application of mass balance, statistical and quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict exposure and exposure potential for humans...

  19. Bivariate Left-Censored Bayesian Model for Predicting Exposure: Preliminary Analysis of Worker Exposure during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groth, Caroline; Banerjee, Sudipto; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Stenzel, Mark R; Sandler, Dale P; Blair, Aaron; Engel, Lawrence S; Kwok, Richard K; Stewart, Patricia A

    2017-01-01

    In April 2010, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caught fire and exploded, releasing almost 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the ensuing 3 months. Thousands of oil spill workers participated in the spill response and clean-up efforts. The GuLF STUDY being conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is an epidemiological study to investigate potential adverse health effects among these oil spill clean-up workers. Many volatile chemicals were released from the oil into the air, including total hydrocarbons (THC), which is a composite of the volatile components of oil including benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and hexane (BTEXH). Our goal is to estimate exposure levels to these toxic chemicals for groups of oil spill workers in the study (hereafter called exposure groups, EGs) with likely comparable exposure distributions. A large number of air measurements were collected, but many EGs are characterized by datasets with a large percentage of censored measurements (below the analytic methods' limits of detection) and/or a limited number of measurements. We use THC for which there was less censoring to develop predictive linear models for specific BTEXH air exposures with higher degrees of censoring. We present a novel Bayesian hierarchical linear model that allows us to predict, for different EGs simultaneously, exposure levels of a second chemical while accounting for censoring in both THC and the chemical of interest. We illustrate the methodology by estimating exposure levels for several EGs on the Development Driller III, a rig vessel charged with drilling one of the relief wells. The model provided credible estimates in this example for geometric means, arithmetic means, variances, correlations, and regression coefficients for each group. This approach should be considered when estimating exposures in situations when multiple chemicals are correlated and have varying degrees of censoring.

  20. Multi-pathway exposure modelling of chemicals in cosmetics with application to shampoo

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernstoff, Alexi S.; Fantke, Peter; Csiszar, Susan A.

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel multi-pathway, mass balance based, fate and exposure model compatible with life cycle and high-throughput screening assessments of chemicals in cosmetic products. The exposures through product use as well as post-use emissions and environmental media were quantified based...... and critical advancement for life cycle assessments and high-throughput exposure screening of chemicals in cosmetic products demonstrating the importance of consistent consideration of near- and far-field multi-pathway exposures....

  1. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in edible grain: a pilot study of agricultural crops as a human exposure pathway for environmental contaminants using wheat as a model crop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Reiko; Okamoto, Robert A; Maddalena, Randy L; Kado, Norman Y

    2008-06-01

    The concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated in a pilot study of field wheat grain as a model indicator for environmental contamination. The edible grain would serve as a portal for human exposure. Wheat grain was initially studied since it is one of the major food crops consumed internationally by many including infants and children. Wheat grain samples from five different geographical growing locations in California that span approximately 450 km were collected during the same growing season. The same variety of grain was harvested and analyzed for PAHs that ranged from 2- to 6-rings. PAHs were detected in all grain samples and were mainly 2- to 4-ring PAHs with naphthalene the most abundant among them. There were geographical differences in the levels of PAHs in the grain. The sources of the PAHs were not known in this pilot study, but the principal component analysis indicates that the major source is similar in all locations except for naphthalene. Grain naphthalene concentrations may reflect local naphthalene emissions. Diesel-fueled harvesting operations did not appear to contribute to the observed PAH concentrations in the grain. An estimate of naphthalene intake from eating grain compared to inhalation intake demonstrated the potential importance of field contamination of grain as a possible portal of human exposure. The relationship between PAH concentrations in grain and air should be quantitatively investigated to better quantitate exposure and to identify effective measures to lower the risk from PAH exposure through eating grain.

  2. Monitoring and modelling of exposure to ethanol in hairdressing salons.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muiswinkel, van W.J.; Kromhout, H.; Onos, T.; Kersemaekers, W.

    1997-01-01

    Personal exposure to solvents was studied among hairdressers in 28 salons in two regions during two seasons in The Netherlands. Ethanol was used as a marker for solvent exposure. Auxiliary data, such as salon and work characteristics, meteorological conditions and information on the presence of

  3. Modelling of occupational exposure to inhalable nickel compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendzia, Benjamin; Pesch, Beate; Koppisch, Dorothea; Van Gelder, Rainer; Pitzke, Katrin; Zschiesche, Wolfgang; Behrens, Thomas; Weiss, Tobias; Siemiatycki, Jack; Lavoué, Jerome; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Stamm, Roger; Brüning, Thomas

    2017-01-18

    The aim of this study was to estimate average occupational exposure to inhalable nickel (Ni) using the German exposure database MEGA. This database contains 8052 personal measurements of Ni collected between 1990 and 2009 in adjunct with information on the measurement and workplace conditions. The median of all Ni concentrations was 9 μg/m(3) and the 95th percentile was 460 μg/m(3). We predicted geometric means (GMs) for welders and other occupations centered to 1999. Exposure to Ni in welders is strongly influenced by the welding process applied and the Ni content of the used welding materials. Welding with consumable electrodes of high Ni content (>30%) was associated with 10-fold higher concentrations compared with those with a low content (welding materials with high Ni content, in metal sprayers, grinders and forging-press operators, and in the manufacture of batteries and accumulators. The exposure profiles are useful for exposure assessment in epidemiologic studies as well as in industrial hygiene. Therefore, we recommend to collect additional exposure-specific information in addition to the job title in community-based studies when estimating the health risks of Ni exposure.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 18 January 2017; doi:10.1038/jes.2016.80.

  4. Evaluating environmental modeling and sampling data with biomarker data to identify sources and routes of exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Hyeong-Moo; McKone, Thomas E.; Bennett, Deborah H.

    2013-04-01

    Exposure to environmental chemicals results from multiple sources, environmental media, and exposure routes. Ideally, modeled exposures should be compared to biomonitoring data. This study compares the magnitude and variation of modeled polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposures resulting from emissions to outdoor and indoor air and estimated exposure inferred from biomarker levels. Outdoor emissions result in both inhalation and food-based exposures. We modeled PAH intake doses using U.S. EPA's 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) county-level emissions data for outdoor inhalation, the CalTOX model for food ingestion (based on NATA emissions), and indoor air concentrations from field studies for indoor inhalation. We then compared the modeled intake with the measured urine levels of hydroxy-PAH metabolites from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) survey as quantifiable human intake of PAH parent-compounds. Lognormal probability plots of modeled intakes and estimated intakes inferred from biomarkers suggest that a primary route of exposure to naphthalene, fluorene, and phenanthrene for the U.S. population is likely inhalation from indoor sources. For benzo(a)pyrene, the predominant exposure route is likely from food ingestion resulting from multi-pathway transport and bioaccumulation due to outdoor emissions. Multiple routes of exposure are important for pyrene. We also considered the sensitivity of the predicted exposure to the proportion of the total naphthalene production volume emitted to the indoor environment. The comparison of PAH biomarkers with exposure variability estimated from models and sample data for various exposure pathways supports that both indoor and outdoor models are needed to capture the sources and routes of exposure to environmental contaminants.

  5. An empirical assessment of exposure measurement error and effect attenuation in bipollutant epidemiologic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Baxter, Lisa K; Chang, Howard H

    2014-11-01

    Using multipollutant models to understand combined health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants is becoming more common. However, complex relationships between pollutants and differing degrees of exposure error across pollutants can make health effect estimates from multipollutant models difficult to interpret. We aimed to quantify relationships between multiple pollutants and their associated exposure errors across metrics of exposure and to use empirical values to evaluate potential attenuation of coefficients in epidemiologic models. We used three daily exposure metrics (central-site measurements, air quality model estimates, and population exposure model estimates) for 193 ZIP codes in the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area from 1999 through 2002 for PM2.5 and its components (EC and SO4), as well as O3, CO, and NOx, to construct three types of exposure error: δspatial (comparing air quality model estimates to central-site measurements), δpopulation (comparing population exposure model estimates to air quality model estimates), and δtotal (comparing population exposure model estimates to central-site measurements). We compared exposure metrics and exposure errors within and across pollutants and derived attenuation factors (ratio of observed to true coefficient for pollutant of interest) for single- and bipollutant model coefficients. Pollutant concentrations and their exposure errors were moderately to highly correlated (typically, > 0.5), especially for CO, NOx, and EC (i.e., "local" pollutants); correlations differed across exposure metrics and types of exposure error. Spatial variability was evident, with variance of exposure error for local pollutants ranging from 0.25 to 0.83 for δspatial and δtotal. The attenuation of model coefficients in single- and bipollutant epidemiologic models relative to the true value differed across types of exposure error, pollutants, and space. Under a classical exposure-error framework, attenuation may be

  6. Geographic Stereo Video Data Analysis and Model Design%地理立体视频数据分析与模型设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩志刚; 孔云峰; 秦奋; 王万同

    2013-01-01

    针对当前GIS中视频数据管理的功能较单一、检索方法单调的现状,通过分析、整合空间数据、视频数据,设计了一个地理立体视频数据模型(GeoSVDM),它包括视频、空间几何、专题属性、语义标注以及线性参照等要素,基于面向对象方法,抽象了视频帧及其位置、视域、视频片段及其轨迹等组件对象及其逻辑关系,并应用UML定义了模型结构.该模型通过建立视频对象与地理实体间的空间位置参照及语义参照关系,支持可视化、检索以及量测等多个应用功能,实现了地理立体视频对象数据组织与检索表达.试验表明,GeoSVDM具有功能丰富、集成化以及松耦合、灵活可扩展等优点,适合于地理立体视频的管理,并为GIS中应用可定位媒体提供了基础数据模型.%With the rapid advance of the multimedia and position technology,the new-style geo-tagged media,such as geographic video, panoramic picture and measurable image, have been introduced in GIS applications. This paper aims to introduce the stereo video to geographic information science. Geographic stereo video includes both spatial and temporal geographic characteristics acquired through ground-based or non-ground-based cameras. It is the stereo video that extends the elements of interior and exterior orientation for video frame. And it supports the video retrieval and image measurement based on the spatial information. It has been a new way for geographic representation. Regarding to the disadvantage of the existing methods for video management in GIS such as single function and monotone querying methods,a geographic stereo video data model(GeoSVDM)is proposed on the basis of analysis and integration of the spatial and video data. The model was composed of entities of video,geometry, theme, semantic annotation and linear reference. The video frame and its location or field of view, the video segment and its trajectories are abstracted based

  7. PAH exposure through soil ingestion: Combining digestion models and bioassays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiele, T.R. van de; Verstraete, W. [Ghent University (BE).Laboratory Microbial Ecology and Technology (LabMET); Siciliano, S.D. [University of Saskatchewan (Canada). Department of Soil Science

    2003-07-01

    Exposure to environmental contaminants through soil ingestion is an important issue in current health risk assessment. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) or their metabolites pose risks to humans due to their toxic, mutagenic, carcinogenic or even (anti)estrogenic properties. PAH mobilization from a soil matrix (49.1{+-}1.5 mg PAH/kg DW) was assessed using a Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME). PAH GC-MS analysis was performed on the pellet and supernatant of SHIME digests and gave 101, 92, 89 and 97% recovery for water, stomach, duodenal and colon digests, respectively. PAH release was highest for the water extract (0.51%) and the stomach digestion (0.44%). Lower mobilized fractions in the duodenum (0.13%) and colon (0.30%) digests could be attributed to PAH complexation with bile salts, dissolved organic matter or colon microbiota. The digestion model provides us with relevant information to what extent soil bound PAHs are mobilized in the gastrointestinal tract and thus reach the gut wall, prior to absorption. (orig.)

  8. Modeling of secondary radiation damage in LIGA PMMA resist exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Aili

    2003-01-01

    Secondary radiation during LIGA PMMA resist exposure adversely affects feature definition, sidewall taper and overall sidewall offset. Additionally, it can degrade the resist adjacent to the substrate, leading to the loss of free-standing features through undercutting during resist development or through mechanical failure of the degraded material. The source of this radiation includes photoelectrons, Auger electrons, fluorescence photons, etc. Sandia"s Integrated Tiger Series (ITS), a coupled electron/photon Monte Carlo transport code, was used to compute dose profiles within 1 to 2 microns of the absorber edge and near the interface of the resist with a metallized substrate. The difficulty of sub-micron resolution requirement was overcome by solving a few local problems having carefully designed micron-scale geometries. The results indicate a 2-μm dose transition region near the absorber edge resulting from PMMA"s photoelectrons. This region leads to sidewall offset and to tapered sidewalls following resist development. The results also show a dose boundary layer of around 1 μm near the substrate interface due to electrons emitted from the substrate metallization layer. The maximum dose at the resist bottom under the absorber can be very high and can lead to feature loss during development. This model was also used to investigate those resist doses resulting from multi-layer substrate.

  9. Developing a Semi-Quantitative Occupational Risk Prediction Model for Chemical Exposures and Its Application to a National Chemical Exposure Databank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiu-Ying Chen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a semi-quantitative occupational chemical exposure risk prediction model, based on the calculation of exposure hazard indexes, was proposed, corrected, and applied to a national chemical exposure databank. The model comprises one factor used to describe toxicity (i.e., the toxicity index, and two factors used to reflect the exposure potential (i.e., the exposure index and protection deficiency index of workers exposed to chemicals. An expert system was used to correct the above proposed model. By applying the corrected model to data obtained from a national occupational chemical hazard survey program, chemical exposure risks of various manufacturing industries were determined and a national control strategy for the abatement of occupational chemical exposures was proposed. The results of the present study would provide useful information for governmental agencies to allocate their limited resources effectively for reducing chemical exposures of workers.

  10. Evaluating indoor exposure modeling alternatives for LCA: A case study in the vehicle repair industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie; Wilson, Michael P.; Hammond, S. Katharine; McKone, Thomas E.

    2009-05-01

    We evaluated three exposure models with data obtained from measurements among workers who use"aerosol" solvent products in the vehicle repair industry and with field experiments using these products to simulate the same exposure conditions. The three exposure models were the: 1) homogeneously-mixed-one-box model, 2) multi-zone model, and 3) eddy-diffusion model. Temporally differentiated real-time breathing zone volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration measurements, integrated far-field area samples, and simulated experiments were used in estimating parameters, such as emission rates, diffusivity, and near-field dimensions. We assessed differences in model input requirements and their efficacy for predictive modeling. The One-box model was not able to resemble the temporal profile of exposure concentrations, but it performed well concerning time-weighted exposure over extended time periods. However, this model required an adjustment for spatial concentration gradients. Multi-zone models and diffusion-models may solve this problem. However, we found that the reliable use of both these models requires extensive field data to appropriately define pivotal parameters such as diffusivity or near-field dimensions. We conclude that it is difficult to apply these models for predicting VOC exposures in the workplace. However, for comparative exposure scenarios in life-cycle assessment they may be useful.

  11. Mass balance source apportionment modeling of indoor air pollution exposures during the Ethiopian coffee ceremony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keil, Chris; Coleman, Quincy; Brown, Alex; Kassa, Hailu

    2014-01-01

    Mass balance modeling was used to apportion previously measured carbon monoxide and respirable particle exposures of women preparing coffee during Ethiopian coffee ceremonies. The coffee ceremony generates smoke indoors from the use of charcoal and incense. This creates inhalation exposures, particularly for the women preparing the coffee. Understanding the health risks associated with this practice will be improved with knowledge of the relative contribution to combustion byproduct exposures from the different sources. Source fingerprints were developed in the laboratory for carbon monoxide and respirable particle emissions from charcoal and incense. A mass balance model determined that the majority of the carbon monoxide exposures were from charcoal use and that the respirable particle exposures were approximately half from incense and half from charcoal. Efforts to decrease health risks from these exposures must be directed by Ethiopian cultural stakeholders who understand the exposure conditions, the health risks, and the societal context.

  12. Power-use in cooperative competition: a power-dependence model and an empirical test of network structure and geographic mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Blaine; Welser, Howard T; Grigoryeva, Maria; Gleave, Eric

    2014-05-01

    Although the social exchange paradigm has produced a vibrant research program, the theoretical tradition is rarely used to model the structure of social networks outside of experiments and simulations. To address this limitation, we derive power-dependence predictions about network structure and geographic mobility-the outcomes of power-use-and test these predictions using complete data on competition networks and travel schedules among amateur sports teams. Poisson regression and exponential random graph models provide strong support for our predictions. The findings illustrate exchange dynamics in which status resources desired by teams, coupled with the availability of geographically proximal alternatives, create power and dependence that dictate where and with whom teams compete. Although evidence supports Georg Simmel's classic proposition that networks form on the basis of values and propinquity, we show that this complex dynamic is conditional on power and dependence. We conclude by discussing implications and directions for future research.

  13. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic toolkit to evaluate environmental exposures: Applications of the dioxin model to study real life exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emond, Claude; Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz

    2017-01-15

    Chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs) are a series of mono- to octa-chlorinated homologous chemicals commonly referred to as polychlorinated dioxins. One of the most potent, well-known, and persistent member of this family is 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). As part of translational research to make computerized models accessible to health risk assessors, we present a Berkeley Madonna recoded version of the human physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the recent dioxin assessment. This model incorporates CYP1A2 induction, which is an important metabolic vector that drives dioxin distribution in the human body, and it uses a variable elimination half-life that is body burden dependent. To evaluate the model accuracy, the recoded model predictions were compared with those of the original published model. The simulations performed with the recoded model matched well with those of the original model. The recoded model was then applied to available data sets of real life exposure studies. The recoded model can describe acute and chronic exposures and can be useful for interpreting human biomonitoring data as part of an overall dioxin and/or dioxin-like compounds risk assessment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally

  15. Geocomputation and Spatial Modelling for Geographical Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Hustopeče Area, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruda, Aleš; Kolejka, Jaromír; Batelková, Kateřina

    2016-04-01

    The phenomenon of drought is serious in many landscapes with continental patterns of climate. In fact, drought risk is usually assessed in terms of prevailing issue (meteorological, hydrological, agronomical, etc.) and not in terms of complex landscape features. A procedure for detailed geographical drought risk modelling has been developed using recent meteorological data of dry period and prior precipitations, as well as a digital elevation model and geographic data layers of natural landscape features and land cover. The current version of the procedure starts with meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) processing followed by the use of soil and geological data and land cover, the national CORINE LC 2006 CZ database, for assessing the impact of the local natural features on drought risk. The methodology is based on GIS tools, geodata of the geological structure of the area (water holding capacity of the substrate, the horizontal and vertical water conductivity), soil cover (in agricultural and forested areas, soil types and kinds), landscape cover (land use), relief (digital elevation model and its derivatives), temperature and precipitation data from neighbouring representative meteorological and climate stations. The procedure uses regression equation for temperature and precipitation risk modelling, fuzzy standardization for estimation of different water retention within land cover categories and expert estimation for risk categories within rocks and soils. The final calculation is based on spatial decision-making techniques, especially the weighted sum method with a natural breaks reclassification algorithm. Combining geodata of soils, the geological environment and the active surface with their computed humidity conditions, it is possible to identify areas with a graded risk of geographic drought. The final results do not represent partial values, but identify five risk classes in the study area illustrating a possible level of geographical

  16. Geocomputation and Spatial Modelling for Geographical Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Hustopeče Area, Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruda, Aleš; Kolejka, Jaromír; Batelková, Kateřina

    2017-02-01

    The phenomenon of drought is serious in many landscapes with continental patterns of climate. In fact, drought risk is usually assessed in terms of prevailing issue (meteorological, hydrological, agronomical, etc.) and not in terms of complex landscape features. A procedure for detailed geographical drought risk modelling has been developed using recent meteorological data of dry period and prior precipitations, as well as a digital elevation model and geographic data layers of natural landscape features and land cover. The current version of the procedure starts with meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) processing followed by the use of soil and geological data and land cover, the national CORINE LC 2006 CZ database, for assessing the impact of the local natural features on drought risk. The methodology is based on GIS tools, geodata of the geological structure of the area (water holding capacity of the substrate, the horizontal and vertical water conductivity), soil cover (in agricultural and forested areas, soil types and kinds), landscape cover (land use), relief (digital elevation model and its derivatives), temperature and precipitation data from neighbouring representative meteorological and climate stations. The procedure uses regression equation for temperature and precipitation risk modelling, fuzzy standardization for estimation of different water retention within land cover categories and expert estimation for risk categories within rocks and soils. The final calculation is based on spatial decision-making techniques, especially the weighted sum method with a natural breaks reclassification algorithm. Combining geodata of soils, the geological environment and the active surface with their computed humidity conditions, it is possible to identify areas with a graded risk of geographic drought. The final results do not represent partial values, but identify five risk classes in the study area illustrating a possible level of geographical

  17. A geographic model to assess and limit cumulative ecological degradation from Marcellus Shale exploitation in New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, John B.; Robinson, George R.

    2012-01-01

    When natural resources are exploited, environmental costs and economic benefits are often asymmetric. An example is apparent in the environmental impacts from fossil fuel extraction by hydraulic fracturing. So far, most scrutiny has been focused on water quality in affected aquifers, with less attention paid to broader ecological impacts beyond individual drilling operations. Marcellus Shale methane exploitation in New York State, USA, has been delayed because of a regulatory moratorium, pending evaluation that has been directed primarily at localized impacts. We developed a GIS-based model, built on a hexagonal grid underlay nested within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s EMAP system, to examine potential cumulative ecological impacts. In a two-step process, we characterized > 19,000 hexagons, each sized to approximate the footprint of one drilling site (2.57 km²), using ecological attributes; we then developed a method for apportioning resource access that includes assessments of cumulative ecological costs. Over one-quarter of the hexagons were excluded as off-limits on the basis of six criteria: slope suitability, regulated wetland cover, protected-land cover, length of high-quality streams, mapped road density, and open water cover. Three additional criteria were applied to assess the estimated conservation vulnerability of the remaining sites: density of grassland birds (North American Breeding Bird Survey), percent core forest (Coastal Change Analysis Program), and total density of all state-mapped streams; these were determined and used in combination to rank the 14,000 potentially accessible sites. In a second step, an iterative process was used to distribute potential site access among all towns (sub-county governments) within the Marcellus Shale Formation. At each iteration, one site was selected per town, either randomly or in rank order of increasing vulnerability. Results were computed as percent cumulative impact versus the number of

  18. A Geographic Model to Assess and Limit Cumulative Ecological Degradation from Marcellus Shale Exploitation in New York, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George R. Robinson

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available When natural resources are exploited, environmental costs and economic benefits are often asymmetric. An example is apparent in the environmental impacts from fossil fuel extraction by hydraulic fracturing. So far, most scrutiny has been focused on water quality in affected aquifers, with less attention paid to broader ecological impacts beyond individual drilling operations. Marcellus Shale methane exploitation in New York State, USA, has been delayed because of a regulatory moratorium, pending evaluation that has been directed primarily at localized impacts. We developed a GIS-based model, built on a hexagonal grid underlay nested within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s EMAP system, to examine potential cumulative ecological impacts. In a two-step process, we characterized > 19,000 hexagons, each sized to approximate the footprint of one drilling site (2.57 km², using ecological attributes; we then developed a method for apportioning resource access that includes assessments of cumulative ecological costs. Over one-quarter of the hexagons were excluded as off-limits on the basis of six criteria: slope suitability, regulated wetland cover, protected-land cover, length of high-quality streams, mapped road density, and open water cover. Three additional criteria were applied to assess the estimated conservation vulnerability of the remaining sites: density of grassland birds (North American Breeding Bird Survey, percent core forest (Coastal Change Analysis Program, and total density of all state-mapped streams; these were determined and used in combination to rank the 14,000 potentially accessible sites. In a second step, an iterative process was used to distribute potential site access among all towns (sub-county governments within the Marcellus Shale Formation. At each iteration, one site was selected per town, either randomly or in rank order of increasing vulnerability. Results were computed as percent cumulative impact versus

  19. Clinical and pathological manifestations of cardiovascular disease in rat models: the influence of acute ozone exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper shows that rat models of cardiovascular diseases have differential degrees of underlying pathologies at a young age. Rodent models of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and metabolic disorders are used for examining susceptibility variations to environmental exposures. How...

  20. Air Pollution and Lung Function in Dutch Children : A Comparison of Exposure Estimates and Associations Based on Land Use Regression and Dispersion Exposure Modeling Approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Meng; Gehring, Ulrike; Hoek, Gerard; Keuken, Menno; Jonkers, Sander; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Postma, Dirkje S.; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure

  1. Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, F A; Wilson, J W

    1995-08-01

    Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

  2. Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Octavianty, Toharudin, Toni; Jaya, I. G. N. Mindra

    2017-03-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by a bacterium, called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which typically attacks the lungs but can also affect the kidney, spine, and brain (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Indonesia had the largest number of TB cases after India (Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 by WHO). The distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in Indonesia showed the high genetic diversity and tended to vary by geographic regions. For instance, in Bandung city, the prevalence rate of TB morbidity is quite high. A number of TB patients belong to the counted data. To determine the factors that significantly influence the number of tuberculosis patients in each location of the observations can be used statistical analysis tool that is Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Semiparametric (GWPRS). GWPRS is an extension of the Poisson regression and GWPR that is influenced by geographical factors, and there is also variables that influence globally and locally. Using the TB Data in Bandung city (in 2015), the results show that the global and local variables that influence the number of tuberculosis patients in every sub-district.

  3. Bayesian geostatistical modelling of malaria and lymphatic filariasis infections in Uganda: predictors of risk and geographical patterns of co-endemicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedersen Erling M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Uganda, malaria and lymphatic filariasis (causative agent Wuchereria bancrofti are transmitted by the same vector species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and thus are likely to share common environmental risk factors and overlap in geographical space. In a comprehensive nationwide survey in 2000-2003 the geographical distribution of W. bancrofti was assessed by screening school-aged children for circulating filarial antigens (CFA. Concurrently, blood smears were examined for malaria parasites. In this study, the resultant malariological data are analysed for the first time and the CFA data re-analysed in order to identify risk factors, produce age-stratified prevalence maps for each infection, and to define the geographical patterns of Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti co-endemicity. Methods Logistic regression models were fitted separately for Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti within a Bayesian framework. Models contained covariates representing individual-level demographic effects, school-level environmental effects and location-based random effects. Several models were fitted assuming different random effects to allow for spatial structuring and to capture potential non-linearity in the malaria- and filariasis-environment relation. Model-based risk predictions at unobserved locations were obtained via Bayesian predictive distributions for the best fitting models. Maps of predicted hyper-endemic malaria and filariasis were furthermore overlaid in order to define areas of co-endemicity. Results Plasmodium sp. parasitaemia was found to be highly endemic in most of Uganda, with an overall population adjusted parasitaemia risk of 47.2% in the highest risk age-sex group (boys 5-9 years. High W. bancrofti prevalence was predicted for a much more confined area in northern Uganda, with an overall population adjusted infection risk of 7.2% in the highest risk age-group (14-19 year olds. Observed overall prevalence of individual co

  4. Exposure assessment modeling for volatiles--towards an Australian indoor vapor intrusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turczynowicz, Leonid; Robinson, Neville I

    2007-10-01

    Human health risk assessment of sites contaminated by volatile hydrocarbons involves site-specific evaluations of soil or groundwater contaminants and development of Australian soil health-based investigation levels (HILs). Exposure assessment of vapors arising from subsurface sources includes the use of overseas-derived commercial models to predict indoor air concentrations. These indoor vapor intrusion models commonly consider steady-state assumptions, infinite sources, limited soil biodegradation, negligible free phase, and equilibrium partitioning into air and water phases to represent advective and diffusive processes. Regional model construct influences and input parameters affect model predictions while steady-state assumptions introduce conservatism and jointly highlight the need for Australian-specific indoor vapor intrusion assessment. An Australian non-steady-state indoor vapor intrusion model has been developed to determine cumulative indoor human doses (CIHDs) and to address these concerns by incorporating Australian experimental field data to consider mixing, dilution, ventilation, sink effects and first-order soil and air degradation. It was used to develop provisional HILs for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), naphthalene, and volatile aliphatic and aromatic total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) < or = EC16 fractions for crawl space dwellings. This article summarizes current state of knowledge and discusses proposed research for differing exposure scenarios based on Australian dwelling and subsurface influences, concurrent with sensitivity analyses of input parameters and in-field model validation.

  5. Modelovanje određenih elemenata digitalnih atlasnih karata sa aspekta geografskih informacionih sistema/Modeling certain digital atlas map elements from the geographical information systems aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikola S. Stamenković

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Atlasi i GIS važni su elementi prikaza modela životnog prostora. U radu je predstavljen model upotrebe GIS tehnologije u izradi određenih elemenata atlasnih karata. To podrazumeva definisanje osnovnih matematičkih elemenata karata digitalnog atlasa i mogućih struktura i formi baza prostornih podataka. Geografski elementi atlasnih karata, pretprocesiranje u GIS i strukturiranje karata digitalnog atlasa podržano GIS-om čine osnovne teme rada. Naglašava se mesto GIS tehnologije u procesu izrade atlasnih karata sa dva aspekta. Jedan aspekt predstavlja okvir geografskih informacionih sistema i mogućnosti koje pružaju, a drugi aspekt predstavljaju kartografske metode, odnosno sistem kartografskih metoda u čijem okruženju se izrađuju atlasne karte. / Besides geographic maps, atlases represent the most important cartographic models of environment. Nowadays, contemporary geographic information systems (GISare increasingly used ' in planning, designing and predicting the conditions and processes of complex dynamic spatial systems. Collecting data and information for a specific geographical map and GIS represents its basis.

  6. Testing a model of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in military women with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinelli, Angela M; Agazio, Janice; Flaherty, Norma; Ephraim, Paula M

    2002-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to test a model of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in military women and their children. The convenience sample consisted of 238 women, 81 smokers and 157 nonsmokers, with a mean age of 37 years (SD = 9.9). Participants were either on active duty or were reservists and/or military dependents. Model constructs, some of which were adapted from the transtheoretical model of behavior change, measured personal and situational factors, pros and cons of ETS exposure, self-efficacy to resist ETS, mother's expectation for child's ETS exposure, and mother's self-efficacy to reduce child's ETS exposure. The mediating variable was the mother's daily ETS exposure, and the outcome variable was the child's daily ETS exposure. The trimmed model showed that 32% of the variance in mother's daily exposure (mediating variable) was accounted for by living with a smoker, having high ETS "pros" (as opposed to ETS "cons"), having less self-efficacy to resist ETS, and having greater self-efficacy to reduce the child's exposure. There was a significant, positive relationship (r = 0.51, p = 0.01) between the mother's and child's daily ETS exposure (outcome variable).

  7. Determining the validity of exposure models for environmental epidemiology : predicting electromagnetic fields from mobile phone base stations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekhuizen, Johan

    2014-01-01

    One of the key challenges in environmental epidemiology is the exposure assessment of large populations. Spatial exposure models have been developed that predict exposure to the pollutant of interest for large study sizes. However, the validity of these exposure models is often unknown. In this thes

  8. Simulation of Population-Based Commuter Exposure to NO2 Using Different Air Pollution Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina S. Ragettli

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland, and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2 as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m−3, range: 21–61 than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–51, and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–54. Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas.

  9. In-residence, multiple route exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon estimated by indirect method models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschandreas, D. J.; Kim, Y.; Karuchit, S.; Ari, H.; Lebowitz, M. D.; O'Rourke, M. K.; Gordon, S.; Robertson, G.

    One of the objectives of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is to estimate exposures to several pollutants in multiple media and determine their distributions for the population of Arizona. This paper presents modeling methods used to estimate exposure distributions of chlorpyrifos and diazinon in the residential microenvironment using the database generated in Arizona (NHEXAS-AZ). A four-stage probability sampling design was used for sample selection. Exposures to pesticides were estimated using the indirect method of exposure calculation by combining measured concentrations of the two pesticides in multiple media with questionnaire information such as time subjects spent indoors, dietary and non-dietary items they consumed, and areas they touched. Most distributions of in-residence exposure to chlorpyrifos and diazinon were log-normal or nearly log-normal. Exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon vary by pesticide and route as well as by various demographic characteristics of the subjects. Comparisons of exposure to pesticides were investigated among subgroups of demographic categories, including gender, age, minority status, education, family income, household dwelling type, year the dwelling was built, pesticide use, and carpeted areas within dwellings. Residents with large carpeted areas within their dwellings have higher exposures to both pesticides for all routes than those in less carpet-covered areas. Depending on the route, several other determinants of exposure to pesticides were identified, but a clear pattern could not be established regarding the exposure differences between several subpopulation groups.

  10. Exposure to fine airborne particulate matters induces hepatic fibrosis in murine models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Ze; Zhang, Xuebao; Wang, Jiemei; Dandekar, Aditya; Kim, Hyunbae; Qiu, Yining; Xu, Xiaohua; Cui, Yuqi; Wang, Aixia; Chen, Lung Chi; Rajagopalan, Sanjay; Sun, Qinghua; Zhang, Kezhong

    2015-12-01

    Hepatic fibrosis, featured by the accumulation of excessive extracellular matrix in liver tissue, is associated with metabolic disease and cancer. Inhalation exposure to airborne particulate matter in fine ranges (PM2.5) correlates with pulmonary dysfunction, cardiovascular disease, and metabolic syndrome. In this study, we investigated the effect and mechanism of PM2.5 exposure on hepatic fibrogenesis. Both inhalation exposure of mice and in vitro exposure of specialized cells to PM2.5 were performed to elucidate the effect of PM2.5 exposure on hepatic fibrosis. Histological examinations, gene expression analyses, and genetic animal models were utilized to determine the effect and mechanism by which PM2.5 exposure promotes hepatic fibrosis. Inhalation exposure to concentrated ambient PM2.5 induces hepatic fibrosis in mice under the normal chow or high-fat diet. Mice after PM2.5 exposure displayed increased expression of collagens in liver tissues. Exposure to PM2.5 led to activation of the transforming growth factor β-SMAD3 signaling, suppression of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ, and expression of collagens in hepatic stellate cells. NADPH oxidase plays a critical role in PM2.5-induced liver fibrogenesis. Exposure to PM2.5 exerts discernible effects on promoting hepatic fibrogenesis. NADPH oxidase mediates the effects of PM2.5 exposure on promoting hepatic fibrosis. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Cardiac Response to Particulate Matter Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Studies have linked increased levels of particulate air pollution to decreased autonomic control, as measured by heart rate variability (HRV), particularly in populations such as the elderly. In this study, we use data obtained from the 1998 USEPA epidemiology-exposure longitudin...

  12. Elderly Exposure to Air Pollutants: Measuring, assessing and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida-Silva, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    This Thesis focuses on the estimation of the human exposure to air pollutants, and gives special attention to one of the most susceptible groups in the general population - elders. To fulfil the goal the work was conducted following the risk assessment paradigm and, consequently, was divided into 5

  13. Comparison of the use of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model and a classical pharmacokinetic model for dioxin exposure assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emond, Claude; Michalek, Joel E; Birnbaum, Linda S; DeVito, Michael J

    2005-12-01

    In epidemiologic studies, exposure assessments of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) assume a fixed elimination rate. Recent data suggest a dose-dependent elimination rate for TCDD. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, which uses a body-burden-dependent elimination rate, was developed previously in rodents to describe the pharmacokinetics of TCDD and has been extrapolated to human exposure for this study. Optimizations were performed using data from a random selection of veterans from the Ranch Hand cohort and data from a human volunteer who was exposed to TCDD. Assessment of this PBPK model used additional data from the Ranch Hand cohort and a clinical report of two women exposed to TCDD. This PBPK model suggests that previous exposure assessments may have significantly underestimated peak blood concentrations, resulting in potential exposure misclassifications. Application of a PBPK model that incorporates an inducible elimination of TCDD may improve the exposure assessments in epidemiologic studies of TCDD.

  14. Geographical information systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management.......The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management....

  15. Geographical information systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd

    2004-01-01

    The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management.......The chapter gives an introduction to Geographical Information Systems (GIS) with particular focus on their application within environmental management....

  16. A geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial modeling approach to assessing indoor radon potential at local level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lacan, Igor [California Department of Health Services, Environmental Health Laboratory Branch, 850 Marina Bay Pkwy, Mailstop G365/EHLB, Richmond, CA 94804 (United States)]. E-mail: ilacan@nature.Berkeley.edu; Zhou, Joey Y. [California Department of Health Services, Environmental Health Laboratory Branch, 850 Marina Bay Pkwy, Mailstop G365/EHLB, Richmond, CA 94804 (United States); Liu, Kai-Shen [California Department of Health Services, Environmental Health Laboratory Branch, 850 Marina Bay Pkwy, Mailstop G365/EHLB, Richmond, CA 94804 (United States); Waldman, Jed [California Department of Health Services, Environmental Health Laboratory Branch, 850 Marina Bay Pkwy, Mailstop G365/EHLB, Richmond, CA 94804 (United States)

    2006-04-15

    This study integrates residential radon data from previous studies in Southern California (USA), into a geographic information system (GIS) linked with statistical techniques. A difference (p<0.05) is found in the indoor radon in residences grouped by radon-potential zones. Using a novel Monte Carlo approach, we found that the mean distance from elevated-radon residences (concentration>74Bqm{sup -3}) to epicenters of large (> 4 Richter) earthquakes was smaller (p<0.0001) than the average residence-to-epicenter distance, suggesting an association between the elevated indoor-radon and seismic activities.

  17. Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baveco, J M Hans; Norman, Steve; Roessink, Ivo; Galic, Nika; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2014-07-01

    Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a nonseasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream, and ditch). The species had different life histories (e.g., voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard European Union scenarios. The results of the IBM-TDM were compared with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration-effect relationships (IBM-CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a nonspatial, logistic growth model (logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially averaged as well. By using comparisons between models of different complexity and species with different life histories, the authors obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery and the conditions under which the full time-varying exposure needs to be considered. The logistic model, which is amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights into the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions. © 2014 SETAC.

  18. Environmental tobacco smoke in designated smoking areas in the hospitality industry: exposure measurements, exposure modelling and policy assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNabola, A; Eyre, G J; Gill, L W

    2012-09-01

    Tobacco control policy has been enacted in many jurisdictions worldwide banning smoking in the workplace. In the hospitality sector many businesses such as bars, hotels and restaurants have installed designated smoking areas on their premises and allowance for such smoking areas has been made in the tobacco control legislation of many countries. An investigation was carried out into the level of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) present in 8 pubs in Ireland which included designated smoking areas complying with two different definitions of a smoking area set out in Irish legislation. In addition, ETS exposure in a pub with a designated smoking area not in compliance with the legislation was also investigated. The results of this investigation showed that the two differing definitions of a smoking area present in pubs produced similar concentrations of benzene within smoking areas (5.1-5.4 μg/m(3)) but differing concentrations within the 'smoke-free' areas (1.42-3.01 μg/m(3)). Smoking areas in breach of legislative definitions were found to produce the highest levels of benzene in the smoking area (49.5 μg/m(3)) and 'smoke-free' area (7.68 μg/m(3)). 3D exposure modelling of hypothetical smoking areas showed that a wide range of ETS exposure concentrations were possible in smoking areas with the same floor area and same smoking rate but differing height to width and length to width ratios. The results of this investigation demonstrate that significant scope for improvement of ETS exposure concentrations in pubs and in smoking areas may exist by refining and improving the legislative definitions of smoking areas in law. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios (Final Report, 2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios. This report investigates the potential dioxin exposure to artists/hobbyists who use ball clay to make pottery and related products. Derm...

  20. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  1. High-throughput exposure modeling to support prioritization of chemicals in personal care products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Csiszar, Susan A.; Ernstoff, Alexi; Fantke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    We demonstrate the application of a high-throughput modeling framework to estimate exposure to chemicals used in personal care products (PCPs). As a basis for estimating exposure, we use the product intake fraction (PiF), defined as the mass of chemical taken by an individual or population per mass...

  2. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

  3. Harmonization of future needs for dermal exposure assessment and modeling : a workshop report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Maidment, S.; Mcclaflin, J.L.; Fehrenbacher, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    Dermal exposure assessment and modeling is still in early phases of development. This article presents the results of a workshop organized to harmonize the future needs in this field. Methods for dermal exposure assessment either assess the mass of contaminant that is transferred to the skin, or the

  4. A Comparison of Exposure Control Procedures in CATs Using the 3PL Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroux, Audrey J.; Lopez, Myriam; Hembry, Ian; Dodd, Barbara G.

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the progressive-restricted standard error (PR-SE) exposure control procedure to three commonly used procedures in computerized adaptive testing, the randomesque, Sympson-Hetter (SH), and no exposure control methods. The performance of these four procedures is evaluated using the three-parameter logistic model under the…

  5. Multi-pathway exposure modelling of chemicals in cosmetics with application to shampoo

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present a novel multi-pathway, mass balance based, fate and exposure model compatible with life cycle and high-throughput screening assessments of chemicals in cosmetic products. The exposures through product use as well as post-use emissions and environmental media were quant...

  6. Merging Models and Biomonitoring Data to Characterize Sources andPathways of Human Exposure to Organophosphorous Pesticides in the SalinasValley of California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, Thomas E.; Castorina, Rosemary; Kuwabara, Yu; Harnly,Martha E.; Eskenazi, Brenda; Bradman, Asa

    2006-06-01

    By drawing on human biomonitoring data and limited environmental samples together with outputs from the CalTOX multimedia, multipathway source-to-dose model, we characterize cumulative intake of organophosphorous (OP) pesticides in an agricultural region of California. We assemble regional OP pesticide use, environmental sampling, and biological tissue monitoring data for a large and geographically dispersed population cohort of 592 pregnant Latina women in California (the CHAMACOS cohort). We then use CalTOX with regional pesticide usage data to estimate the magnitude and uncertainty of exposure and intake from local sources. We combine model estimates of intake from local sources with food intake based on national residue data to estimate for the CHAMACOS cohort cumulative median OP intake, which corresponds to expected levels of urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) metabolite excretion for this cohort. From these results we develop premises about relative contributions from different sources and pathways of exposure. We evaluate these premises by comparing the magnitude and variation of DAPs in the CHAMACOS cohort with the whole U.S. population using data from the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Survey (NHANES). This comparison supports the premise that in both populations diet is the common and dominant exposure pathway. Both the model results and biomarker comparison supports the observation that the CHAMACOS population has a statistically significant higher intake of OP pesticides that appears as an almost constant additional dose among all participants. We attribute the magnitude and small variance of this intake to non-dietary exposure in residences from local sources.

  7. A review of models for near-field exposure pathways of chemicals in consumer products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Lei; Ernstoff, Alexi; Fantke, Peter;

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to chemicals in consumer products has been gaining increasing attention, with multiple studies showing that near-field exposures from products is high compared to far-field exposures. Regarding the numerous chemical-product combinations, there is a need for an overarching review of models...... able to quantify the multiple transfers of chemicals from products used near-field to humans. The present review therefore aims at an in-depth overview of modeling approaches for near-field chemical release and human exposure pathways associated with consumer products. It focuses on lower...... in a “human receptor compartment”. We first focus on models of physical mass transfers from the product to ‘near-field’ compartments. For transfers of chemicals from article interior, adequate modeling of in-article diffusion and of partitioning between article surface and air/skin/food is key. Modeling...

  8. Geographic Media Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukinbeal, Chris

    2014-01-01

    While the use of media permeates geographic research and pedagogic practice, the underlying literacies that link geography and media remain uncharted. This article argues that geographic media literacy incorporates visual literacy, information technology literacy, information literacy, and media literacy. Geographic media literacy is the ability…

  9. Modelling spread of foot-and-mouth disease in wild white-tailed deer and feral pig populations using a geographic-automata model and animal distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Michael P; Laffan, Shawn W; Highfield, Linda D

    2009-09-01

    We investigated how the size and distribution of wild deer and feral pigs - species that might act as potential foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus maintenance hosts - might affect the persistence and spread of FMD. We used a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered geographic-automata model and spatially referenced data from southern Texas, USA. Within this study area, 100 locations were randomly selected and FMD virus spread was simulated (50 simulations each) at each location. As expected, the predicted sizes (km(2)) of the wild deer outbreaks were highly correlated (r(SP)>0.95) with the number of deer at incursion locations, the total number of deer within 2 km of incursion locations, and the minimum and maximum deer herd size within 2 km of incursion locations. However, the predicted sizes of the feral pig outbreaks were only moderately correlated (r(SP) 0.63-0.67) with the total, maximum and variance of the number of feral pigs within 2 km of incursion locations. Lack of continuity within the feral pig herd distribution across the landscape makes predicting disease spread more difficult than for deer, a more homogenously distributed species. When assessing the potential of wild and feral animal species at a locality to act as maintenance hosts of FMD virus, estimates of the population size and distribution might serve as a useful indicator of potential outbreaks in some circumstances.

  10. Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution of soil-transmitted helminthiases in Peninsular Malaysia: implications for control approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romano Ngui

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Soil-transmitted helminth (STH infections in Malaysia are still highly prevalent, especially in rural and remote communities. Complete estimations of the total disease burden in the country has not been performed, since available data are not easily accessible in the public domain. The current study utilised geographical information system (GIS to collate and map the distribution of STH infections from available empirical survey data in Peninsular Malaysia, highlighting areas where information is lacking. The assembled database, comprising surveys conducted between 1970 and 2012 in 99 different locations, represents one of the most comprehensive compilations of STH infections in the country. It was found that the geographical distribution of STH varies considerably with no clear pattern across the surveyed locations. Our attempt to generate predictive risk maps of STH infections on the basis of ecological limits such as climate and other environmental factors shows that the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides is low along the western coast and the southern part of the country, whilst the prevalence is high in the central plains and in the North. In the present study, we demonstrate that GIS can play an important role in providing data for the implementation of sustainable and effective STH control programmes to policy-makers and authorities in charge.

  11. A Comparison of Two Strategies for Building an Exposure Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiden, Marina; Mathiassen, Svend Erik; Garza, Jennifer; Liv, Per; Wahlström, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Cost-efficient assessments of job exposures in large populations may be obtained from models in which 'true' exposures assessed by expensive measurement methods are estimated from easily accessible and cheap predictors. Typically, the models are built on the basis of a validation study comprising 'true' exposure data as well as an extensive collection of candidate predictors from questionnaires or company data, which cannot all be included in the models due to restrictions in the degrees of freedom available for modeling. In these situations, predictors need to be selected using procedures that can identify the best possible subset of predictors among the candidates. The present study compares two strategies for selecting a set of predictor variables. One strategy relies on stepwise hypothesis testing of associations between predictors and exposure, while the other uses cluster analysis to reduce the number of predictors without relying on empirical information about the measured exposure. Both strategies were applied to the same dataset on biomechanical exposure and candidate predictors among computer users, and they were compared in terms of identified predictors of exposure as well as the resulting model fit using bootstrapped resamples of the original data. The identified predictors were, to a large part, different between the two strategies, and the initial model fit was better for the stepwise testing strategy than for the clustering approach. Internal validation of the models using bootstrap resampling with fixed predictors revealed an equally reduced model fit in resampled datasets for both strategies. However, when predictor selection was incorporated in the validation procedure for the stepwise testing strategy, the model fit was reduced to the extent that both strategies showed similar model fit. Thus, the two strategies would both be expected to perform poorly with respect to predicting biomechanical exposure in other samples of computer users.

  12. Air Quality Modeling in Support of the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS)

    OpenAIRE

    Vlad Isakov; Saravanan Arunachalam; Stuart Batterman; Sarah Bereznicki; Janet Burke; Kathie Dionisio; Val Garcia; David Heist; Steve Perry; Michelle Snyder; Alan Vette

    2014-01-01

    A major challenge in traffic-related air pollution exposure studies is the lack of information regarding pollutant exposure characterization. Air quality modeling can provide spatially and temporally varying exposure estimates for examining relationships between traffic-related air pollutants and adverse health outcomes. A hybrid air quality modeling approach was used to estimate exposure to traffic-related air pollutants in support of the Near-Road Exposures and Effects of Urban Air Pollutan...

  13. The chemical exposure toxicity space (CETS) model: Displaying exposure time, aqueous and organic concentration, activity, and onset of toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, Donald; Parnis, J. Mark; McCarty, Lynn S.; Arnot, Jon A.; Powell, David E.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract A 1‐compartment toxicokinetic model is used to characterize the chemical exposure toxicity space (CETS), providing a novel graphic tool that can aid in the design of aquatic toxicity tests for fish and for interpreting their results. The graph depicts the solution to the differential equation describing the uptake kinetics of a chemical by a modeled fish under conventional bioassay conditions. The model relates the exposure concentration in the water to a dimensionless time and the onset of toxicity as determined by an estimated or assumed critical body residue or incipient lethal aqueous concentration. These concentration graphs are specific to each chemical and exposure and organism parameters and clearly demonstrate differences in toxicity between chemicals and how factors such as hydrophobicity influence the toxic endpoint. The CETS plots can also be used to assess bioconcentration test conditions to ensure that concentrations are well below toxic levels. Illustrative applications are presented using a recent set of high‐quality toxicity data. Conversion of concentrations to chemical activities in the plots enables results for different baseline toxicants to be superimposed. For chemicals that have different modes of toxic action, the increased toxicity then becomes apparent. Implications for design and interpretation of aquatic toxicity tests are discussed. The model, and pictorial visualization of the time‐course of aquatic toxicity tests, may contribute to improvements in test design, implementation, and interpretation, and to reduced animal usage. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1389–1396. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. PMID:27801500

  14. A NEW SEMI-EMPIRICAL AMBIENT TO EFFECTIVE DOSE CONVERSION MODEL FOR THE PREDICTIVE CODE FOR AIRCREW RADIATION EXPOSURE (PCAIRE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumouchel, T; McCall, M; Lemay, F; Bennett, L; Lewis, B; Bean, M

    2016-12-01

    The Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure (PCAIRE) is a semi-empirical code that estimates both ambient dose equivalent, based on years of on-board measurements, and effective dose to aircrew. Currently, PCAIRE estimates effective dose by converting the ambient dose equivalent to effective dose (E/H) using a model that is based on radiation transport calculations and on the radiation weighting factors recommended in International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 60. In this study, a new semi-empirical E/H model is proposed to replace the existing transport calculation models. The new model is based on flight data measured using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC). The measured flight TEPC data are separated into a low- and a high-lineal-energy spectrum using an amplitude-weighted (137)Cs TEPC spectrum. The high-lineal-energy spectrum is determined by subtracting the low-lineal-energy spectrum from the measured flight TEPC spectrum. With knowledge of E/H for the low- and high-lineal-energy spectra, the total E/H is estimated for a given flight altitude and geographic location. The semi-empirical E/H model also uses new radiation weighting factors to align the model with the most recent ICRP 103 recommendations. The ICRP 103-based semi-empirical effective dose model predicts that there is a ∼30 % reduction in dose in comparison with the ICRP 60-based model. Furthermore, the ambient dose equivalent is now a more conservative dose estimate for jet aircraft altitudes in the range of 7-13 km (FL230-430). This new semi-empirical E/H model is validated against E/H predicted from a Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code simulation of cosmic ray propagation through the Earth's atmosphere. Its implementation allows PCAIRE to provide an accurate semi-empirical estimate of the effective dose.

  15. Tendências dos modelos hidrológicos integrados aos sistemas de informações geográficas a partir da cienciometria/Trends in hydrological models integrated with geographical information systems by scientometric

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jordana Moura Caetano; Derblai Casaroli

    2016-01-01

    .... This study aimed to apply the scientometric study to quantify and verify the tendencies of the scientific publications of hydrological models and their integration with geographic information systems (GIS...

  16. The Geographical Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Schweikart

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Geographical Information System, normally called GIS, is a tool for representing spatial relationships and real processes with the help of a model. A GIS is a system of hardware, software and staff for collecting, managing, analysing and representing geospatial information. For example, we can study the evolution of an infectious disease in a certain territory, perform market analysis, or locate the best ways to choose a new industrial site. In substance, it is data manipulation software for that allows us to have, both the graphic component, that is a territorial representation of the reality that you want to represent, and the data components in the form of a database or more commonly, calculation sheets. Geographical data are divided in spatial data and attribute data: Spatial data are recorded as points, lines and polygons (vectorial structure. In other words, the survey systems have been projected to acquire information in accordance to elementary cells corresponding to a territorial grid (raster structure. It also includes remote sensing data.

  17. [Applying temporally-adjusted land use regression models to estimate ambient air pollution exposure during pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y J; Xue, F X; Bai, Z P

    2017-03-06

    The impact of maternal air pollution exposure on offspring health has received much attention. Precise and feasible exposure estimation is particularly important for clarifying exposure-response relationships and reducing heterogeneity among studies. Temporally-adjusted land use regression (LUR) models are exposure assessment methods developed in recent years that have the advantage of having high spatial-temporal resolution. Studies on the health effects of outdoor air pollution exposure during pregnancy have been increasingly carried out using this model. In China, research applying LUR models was done mostly at the model construction stage, and findings from related epidemiological studies were rarely reported. In this paper, the sources of heterogeneity and research progress of meta-analysis research on the associations between air pollution and adverse pregnancy outcomes were analyzed. The methods of the characteristics of temporally-adjusted LUR models were introduced. The current epidemiological studies on adverse pregnancy outcomes that applied this model were systematically summarized. Recommendations for the development and application of LUR models in China are presented. This will encourage the implementation of more valid exposure predictions during pregnancy in large-scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of air pollution in China.

  18. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  19. Organizational Statement for EPA-sponsored Public Meetings to Discuss Pesticide Exposure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information about EMPM meetings: Vision, Mission Statement, Organization, Meeting Administration and Public Meeting Attendance. Purpose is to discuss and exchange information regarding technical model-related pesticide exposure issues.

  20. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model of morphine exposure and subsequent morphine consumption in postoperative pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Rasmus Vestergaard; Nyberg, Joakim; Lund, Trine Meldgaard

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To characterize the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) relationship between exposure of morphine and subsequent morphine consumption and to develop simulation tools for model validation. Methods Dose, formulation and time of morphine administration was available from a published study...... in 63 patients receiving intravenous, oral immediate release or oral controlled release morphine on request after hip surgery. The PK-PD relationship between predicted exposure of morphine and morphine consumption was modeled using repeated time to event (RTTE) modeling in NONMEM. To validate the RTTE...... model, a visual predictive check method was developed with simulated morphine consumption given the exposure of preceding morphine administration. Results The probability of requesting morphine was found to be significantly related to the exposure of morphine as well as night/day. Oral controlled...

  1. Air Pollution and Lung Function in Dutch Children: A Comparison of Exposure Estimates and Associations Based on Land Use Regression and Dispersion Exposure Modeling Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Gehring, Ulrike; Hoek, Gerard; Keuken, Menno; Jonkers, Sander; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Postma, Dirkje S; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-08-01

    There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure modeling techniques [dispersion and land use regression (LUR) models] and, in addition, to compare the estimates of the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and lung function in children using these exposure modeling techniques. We used data of 1,058 participants of a Dutch birth cohort study with measured forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements at 8 years of age. For each child, annual average outdoor air pollution exposure [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), mass concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 and ≤ 10 μm (PM2.5, PM10), and PM2.5 soot] was estimated for the current addresses of the participants by a dispersion and a LUR model. Associations between exposures to air pollution and lung function parameters were estimated using linear regression analysis with confounder adjustment. Correlations between LUR- and dispersion-modeled pollution concentrations were high for NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 soot (R = 0.86-0.90) but low for PM10 (R = 0.57). Associations with lung function were similar for air pollutant exposures estimated using LUR and dispersion modeling, except for associations of PM2.5 with FEV1 and FVC, which were stronger but less precise for exposures based on LUR compared with dispersion model. Predictions from LUR and dispersion models correlated very well for PM2.5, NO2, and PM2.5 soot but not for PM10. Health effect estimates did not depend on the type of model used to estimate exposure in a population of Dutch children.

  2. Modeling of groundwater potential of the sub-basin of Siriri river, Sergipe state, Brazil, based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Washington Franca Rocha

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing for modeling groundwater potential give support for the analysis and decision-making processes about water resource management in watersheds. The objective of this work consisted in modeling the groundwater water potential of Siriri river sub-basin, Sergipe state, based on its natural environment (soil, land use, slope, drainage density, lineament density, rainfall and geology using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System as an integration environment. The groundwater potential map was done using digital image processing procedures of ENVI 4.4 software and map algebra of ArcGIS 9.3®. The Analytical Hierarchy Method was used for modeling the weights definition of the different criteria (maps. Loads and weights of the different classes were assigned to each map according to their influence on the overall objective of the work. The integration of these maps in a GIS environment and the AHP technique application allowed the development of the groundwater potential map in five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, very high. The average flow rates of wells confirm the potential of aquifers Sapucari, Barriers and Maruim since they are the most exploited in this sub-basin, with average flows of 78,113 L/h, 19,332 L/h and 12,085 L/h, respectively.

  3. Shared component modelling as an alternative to assess geographical variations in medical practice: gender inequalities in hospital admissions for chronic diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibáñez-Beroiz Berta

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Small area analysis is the most prevalent methodological approach in the study of unwarranted and systematic variation in medical practice at geographical level. Several of its limitations drive researchers to use disease mapping methods -deemed as a valuable alternative. This work aims at exploring these techniques using - as a case of study- the gender differences in rates of hospitalization in elderly patients with chronic diseases. Methods Design and study setting: An empirical study of 538,358 hospitalizations affecting individuals aged over 75, who were admitted due to a chronic condition in 2006, were used to compare Small Area Analysis (SAVA, the Besag-York-Mollie (BYM modelling and the Shared Component Modelling (SCM. Main endpoint: Gender spatial variation was measured, as follows: SAVA estimated gender-specific utilization ratio; BYM estimated the fraction of variance attributable to spatial correlation in each gender; and, SCM estimated the fraction of variance shared by the two genders, and those specific for each one. Results Hospitalization rates due to chronic diseases in the elderly were higher in men (median per area 21.4 per 100 inhabitants, interquartile range: 17.6 to 25.0 than in women (median per area 13.7 per 100, interquartile range: 10.8 to 16.6. Whereas Utilization Ratios showed a similar geographical pattern of variation in both genders, BYM found a high fraction of variation attributable to spatial correlation in both men (71%, CI95%: 50 to 94 and women (62%, CI95%: 45 to 77. In turn, SCM showed that the geographical admission pattern was mainly shared, with just 6% (CI95%: 4 to 8 of variation specific to the women component. Conclusions Whereas SAVA and BYM focused on the magnitude of variation and on allocating where variability cannot be due to chance, SCM signalled discrepant areas where latent factors would differently affect men and women.

  4. Indoor PM2.5 exposure in London's domestic stock: Modelling current and future exposures following energy efficient refurbishment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrubsole, C.; Ridley, I.; Biddulph, P.; Milner, J.; Vardoulakis, S.; Ucci, M.; Wilkinson, P.; Chalabi, Z.; Davies, M.

    2012-12-01

    Simulations using CONTAM (a validated multi-zone indoor air quality (IAQ) model) are employed to predict indoor exposure to PM2.5 in London dwellings in both the present day housing stock and the same stock following energy efficient refurbishments to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets for 2050. We modelled interventions that would contribute to the achievement of these targets by reducing the permeability of the dwellings to 3 m3 m-2 h-1 at 50 Pa, combined with the introduction of mechanical ventilation and heat recovery (MVHR) systems. It is assumed that the current mean outdoor PM2.5 concentration of 13 μg m-3 decreased to 9 μg m-3 by 2050 due to emission control policies. Our primary finding was that installation of (assumed perfectly functioning) MVHR systems with permeability reduction are associated with appreciable reductions in PM2.5 exposure in both smoking and non-smoking dwellings. Modelling of the future scenario for non-smoking dwellings show a reduction in annual average indoor exposure to PM2.5 of 18.8 μg m-3 (from 28.4 to 9.6 μg m-3) for a typical household member. Also of interest is that a larger reduction of 42.6 μg m-3 (from 60.5 to 17.9 μg m-3) was shown for members exposed primarily to cooking-related particle emissions in the kitchen (cooks). Reductions in envelope permeability without mechanical ventilation produced increases in indoor PM2.5 concentrations; 5.4 μg m-3 for typical household members and 9.8 μg m-3 for cooks. These estimates of changes in PM2.5 exposure are sensitive to assumptions about occupant behaviour, ventilation system usage and the distributions of input variables (±72% for non-smoking and ±107% in smoking residences). However, if realised, they would result in significant health benefits.

  5. Mathematical Models of Human Hematopoiesis Following Acute Radiation Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    the model predicts. Radiation dose from skin contamination can result in cutaneous injury leading to systemic responses and may im- pact the observed...medical and performance consequences from radiation and combined injuries , thereby enhancing our understanding of the potential impact of a nuclear...subsequently. In addition to the insight gained from combined injury modeling, the models of hematopoiesis and radiation alone provide clini- cally

  6. Mathematical model quantifies multiple daylight exposure and burial events for rock surfaces using luminescence dating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freiesleben, Trine Holm; Sohbati, Reza; Murray, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Interest in the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of rock surfaces has increased significantly over the last few years, as the potential of the method has been explored. It has been realized that luminescence-depth profiles show qualitative evidence for multiple daylight exposure and...... to determine the length of a fossil exposure, using a known natural light exposure as calibration. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd....... of the cobble and by fitting the new model to the luminescence profile, it is concluded that the cobble was well bleached before burial. This indicates that the OSL burial age is likely to be reliable. In addition, a recent known exposure event provides an approximate calibration for older daylight exposure...

  7. USE OF EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) TO CONSTRUCT A PBPK /MODEL FOR CARBOFURAN WITH THE REPORTED EXPERIMENTAL DATA IN THE RAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the relationships among carbofuran exposure, dose, and effects, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed for the rat using the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) framework.

  8. Use of topographic and climatological models in a geographical data base to improve Landsat MSS classification for Olympic National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cibula, William G.; Nyquist, Maurice O.

    1987-01-01

    An unsupervised computer classification of vegetation/landcover of Olympic National Park and surrounding environs was initially carried out using four bands of Landsat MSS data. The primary objective of the project was to derive a level of landcover classifications useful for park management applications while maintaining an acceptably high level of classification accuracy. Initially, nine generalized vegetation/landcover classes were derived. Overall classification accuracy was 91.7 percent. In an attempt to refine the level of classification, a geographic information system (GIS) approach was employed. Topographic data and watershed boundaries (inferred precipitation/temperature) data were registered with the Landsat MSS data. The resultant boolean operations yielded 21 vegetation/landcover classes while maintaining the same level of classification accuracy. The final classification provided much better identification and location of the major forest types within the park at the same high level of accuracy, and these met the project objective. This classification could now become inputs into a GIS system to help provide answers to park management coupled with other ancillary data programs such as fire management.

  9. Validation of a geographic information system model for mapping the risk of fasciolosis in cattle and buffaloes in Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tum, S; Puotinen, M L; Skerratt, L F; Chan, B; Sothoeun, S

    2007-02-28

    Maps showing gradations of risk of fasciolosis due to Fasciola gigantica in Cambodia were produced using geographic information systems (GIS) technology in conjunction with determinants of fasciolosis. A comparison between levels of risk predicted by the maps and field measurements of prevalence in 11 provinces (n=1406) showed general agreement, which suggested the epidemiological determinants and weightings used to produce the maps were appropriate. However, due to logistical constraints, prevalence was measured at the provincial level and animals were not randomly sampled (and thus were unlikely to be representative of variability within provinces). To address this, additional field work was carried out to measure prevalence in more detail--faecal samples were collected from a randomly selected set of animals in four districts across a representative province for areas predicted to be at high risk (n=311), moderate risk (n=268) and no risk (n=262). As with the original field survey, the results show general agreement between prevalence and risk predicted by the maps, with the best fit found for areas predicted to be at high risk.

  10. Investigating Surface Bias Errors in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using a Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    horizontal grid spacing inner domain centered near San Diego, California. The San Diego area contains a mixture of urban , suburban, agricultural, and...Global Forecast System (GFS) model (Environmental Modeling Center 2003). The WRE–N is envisioned to be a rapid-update cycling application of WRF–ARW...surface– hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Monthly Weather Review. 2001a

  11. Airports Geographic Information System -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Airports Geographic Information System maintains the airport and aeronautical data required to meet the demands of the Next Generation National Airspace System....

  12. Hybrid Air Quality Modeling Approach for use in the Hear-road Exposures to Urban air pollutant Study(NEXUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper presents a hybrid air quality modeling approach and its application in NEXUS in order to provide spatial and temporally varying exposure estimates and identification of the mobile source contribution to the total pollutant exposure. Model-based exposure metrics, associa...

  13. Hybrid Air Quality Modeling Approach for use in the Hear-road Exposures to Urban air pollutant Study(NEXUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper presents a hybrid air quality modeling approach and its application in NEXUS in order to provide spatial and temporally varying exposure estimates and identification of the mobile source contribution to the total pollutant exposure. Model-based exposure metrics, associa...

  14. Real-world exposure of airborne particulate matter triggers oxidative stress in an animal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Guohui; Rajagopalan, Sanjay; Sun, Qinghua; Zhang, Kezhong

    2010-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have shown a strong link between air pollution and the increase of cardio-pulmonary mortality and morbidity. In particular, inhaled airborne particulate matter (PM) exposure is closely associated with the pathogenesis of air pollution-induced systemic diseases. In this study, we exposed C57BIV6 mice to environmentally relevant PM in fine and ultra fine ranges (diameter < 2.5 μm, PM2.5) using a “real-world” airborne PM exposure system. We investigated the pathophysiologic impact of PM2.5 exposure in the animal model and in cultured primary pulmonary macrophages. We demonstrated that PM2.5 exposure increased the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in blood vessels in vivo. Furthermore, in vitro PM2.5 exposure experiment suggested that PM2.5 could trigger oxidative stress response, reflected by an increased expression of the anti-oxidative stress enzymes superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD-1) and heme oxygenase-1(HO-1), in mouse primary macrophages. Together, the results obtained through our “real-world” PM exposure approach demonstrated the pathophysiologic effect of ambient PM2.5 exposure on triggering oxidative stress in the specialized organ and cell type of an animal model. Our results and approach will be informative for the research in air pollution-associated physiology and pathology. PMID:21383899

  15. The validity and applicability of using a generic exposure assessment model for occupational exposure to nano-objects and their aggregates and agglomerates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, C.; Voogd, E.; Fransman, W.; Vermeulen, R.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Control banding can be used as a first-tier assessment to control worker exposure to nano-objects and their aggregates and agglomerates (NOAA). In a second tier, more advanced modelling approaches are needed to produce quantitative exposure estimates. As currently no general quantitative

  16. A review of air exchange rate models for air pollution exposure assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Schultz, Bradley D; Sohn, Michael D; Long, Thomas; Langstaff, John; Williams, Ronald; Isaacs, Kristin; Meng, Qing Yu; Stallings, Casson; Smith, Luther

    2014-11-01

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessments is estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) for various buildings where people spend their time. The AER, which is the rate of exchange of indoor air with outdoor air, is an important determinant for entry of outdoor air pollutants and for removal of indoor-emitted air pollutants. This paper presents an overview and critical analysis of the scientific literature on empirical and physically based AER models for residential and commercial buildings; the models highlighted here are feasible for exposure assessments as extensive inputs are not required. Models are included for the three types of airflows that can occur across building envelopes: leakage, natural ventilation, and mechanical ventilation. Guidance is provided to select the preferable AER model based on available data, desired temporal resolution, types of airflows, and types of buildings included in the exposure assessment. For exposure assessments with some limited building leakage or AER measurements, strategies are described to reduce AER model uncertainty. This review will facilitate the selection of AER models in support of air pollution exposure assessments.

  17. Biological effects of long-term exposure to low dose-rate radiation -- Comparisons of WAM model and LQ model

    CERN Document Server

    Wada, Takahiro; Nakamura, Issei; Tsunoyama, Yuichi; Nakajima, Hiroo; Bando, Masako

    2015-01-01

    Newly proposed Whack-A-Mole (WAM) model which is to be used to estimate the biological effects of artificial radiations is compared with conventionally used Linear-Quadratic model. Basic properties of WAM model are discussed emphasizing on the dose-rate dependence. By adopting the parameters that are determined to fit the mega mouse experiments, biological effects of long-term exposure to extremely low dose-rate radiation are discussed. In WAM model, the effects of the long-term exposure show a saturation property, which makes a clear distinction from the LNT hypothesis which predicts a linear increase of the effects with time.

  18. Modeling heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during flash fire exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chitrphiromsri, Patirop; Kuznetsov, Andrey V. [North Carolina State University, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Raleigh, NC 27695-7910 (United States)

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a model of heat and moisture transport in firefighter protective clothing during a flash fire exposure is presented. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of coupled heat and moisture transport on the protective performance of the garment. Computational results show the distribution of temperature and moisture content in the fabric during the exposure to the flash fire as well as during the cool-down period. Moreover, the duration of the exposure during which the garment protects the firefighter from getting second and third degree burns from the flash fire exposure is numerically predicted. A complete model for the fire-fabric-air gap-skin system is presented. (orig.)

  19. MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabou, Saif; Ruin, Isabelle; Lutoff, Céline; Debionne, Samuel; Anquetin, Sandrine; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Beaufils, Xavier

    2017-09-01

    Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travel-activity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

  20. Not to put too fine a point on it - does increasing precision of geographic referencing improve species distribution models for a wide-ranging migratory bat?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark A.; Ozenberger, Katharine; Cryan, Paul M.; Wunder, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Bat specimens held in natural history museum collections can provide insights into the distribution of species. However, there are several important sources of spatial error associated with natural history specimens that may influence the analysis and mapping of bat species distributions. We analyzed the importance of geographic referencing and error correction in species distribution modeling (SDM) using occurrence records of hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus). This species is known to migrate long distances and is a species of increasing concern due to fatalities documented at wind energy facilities in North America. We used 3,215 museum occurrence records collected from 1950–2000 for hoary bats in North America. We compared SDM performance using five approaches: generalized linear models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy models. We evaluated results using three SDM performance metrics (AUC, sensitivity, and specificity) and two data sets: one comprised of the original occurrence data, and a second data set consisting of these same records after the locations were adjusted to correct for identifiable spatial errors. The increase in precision improved the mean estimated spatial error associated with hoary bat records from 5.11 km to 1.58 km, and this reduction in error resulted in a slight increase in all three SDM performance metrics. These results provide insights into the importance of geographic referencing and the value of correcting spatial errors in modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging bat species. We conclude that the considerable time and effort invested in carefully increasing the precision of the occurrence locations in this data set was not worth the marginal gains in improved SDM performance, and it seems likely that gains would be similar for other bat species that range across large areas of the continent, migrate, and are habitat generalists.

  1. Spatially Explicit Models to Investigate Geographic Patterns in the Distribution of Forensic STRs: Application to the North-Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, Francesco; Finocchio, Andrea; Akar, Nejat; Loutradis, Aphrodite; Michalodimitrakis, Emmanuel I.; Brdicka, Radim; Jodice, Carla

    2016-01-01

    Human forensic STRs used for individual identification have been reported to have little power for inter-population analyses. Several methods have been developed which incorporate information on the spatial distribution of individuals to arrive at a description of the arrangement of diversity. We genotyped at 16 forensic STRs a large population sample obtained from many locations in Italy, Greece and Turkey, i.e. three countries crucial to the understanding of discontinuities at the European/Asian junction and the genetic legacy of ancient migrations, but seldom represented together in previous studies. Using spatial PCA on the full dataset, we detected patterns of population affinities in the area. Additionally, we devised objective criteria to reduce the overall complexity into reduced datasets. Independent spatially explicit methods applied to these latter datasets converged in showing that the extraction of information on long- to medium-range geographical trends and structuring from the overall diversity is possible. All analyses returned the picture of a background clinal variation, with regional discontinuities captured by each of the reduced datasets. Several aspects of our results are confirmed on external STR datasets and replicate those of genome-wide SNP typings. High levels of gene flow were inferred within the main continental areas by coalescent simulations. These results are promising from a microevolutionary perspective, in view of the fast pace at which forensic data are being accumulated for many locales. It is foreseeable that this will allow the exploitation of an invaluable genotypic resource, assembled for other (forensic) purposes, to clarify important aspects in the formation of local gene pools. PMID:27898725

  2. Combining local wavelength information and ensemble learning to enhance the specificity of class modeling techniques: Identification of food geographical origins and adulteration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lu; Ye, Zi-Hong; Yan, Si-Min; Shi, Peng-Tao; Cui, Hai-Feng; Fu, Xian-Shu; Yu, Xiao-Ping

    2012-11-19

    Class modeling techniques are required to tackle various one-class problems. Because the training of class models is based on the target class and the origins of future test objects usually cannot be exactly predefined, the criteria for feature selection of class models are not very straightforward. Although feature reduction can be expected to improve class models performance, more features retained can provide a sufficient description of the sought-for class. This paper suggests a strategy to balance class description and model specificity by ensemble learning of sub-models based on separate local wavelength intervals. The acceptance or rejection of a future object can be explicitly determined by examining its acceptance frequency by sub-models. Considering the lack of information about sub-model independence, we propose to use a data-driven method to control the sensitivity of the ensemble model by cross validation. In this way, all the wavelength intervals are used for class description and the local wavelength intervals are highlighted to enhance the ability to detect out-of-class objects. The proposed strategy was performed on one-class partial least squares (OCPLS) and soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA). By analysis of two infrared spectral data sets, one for geographical origin identification of white tea and the other for discrimination of adulterations in pure sesame oil, the proposed ensemble class modeling method was demonstrated to have similar sensitivity and better specificity compared with total-spectrum SIMCA and OCPLS models. The results indicate local spectral information can be extracted to enhance class model specificity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Surakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astuti, H. N.; Saputro, D. R. S.; Susanti, Y.

    2017-06-01

    MGWR model is combination of linear regression model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, therefore, MGWR model could produce parameter estimation that had global parameter estimation, and other parameter that had local parameter in accordance with its observation location. The linkage between locations of the observations expressed in specific weighting that is adaptive bi-square. In this research, we applied MGWR model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of DHF in Surakarta based on 10 factors (variables) that is supposed to influence the number of people with DHF. The observation unit in the research is 51 urban villages and the variables are number of inhabitants, number of houses, house index, many public places, number of healthy homes, number of Posyandu, area width, level population density, welfare of the family, and high-region. Based on this research, we obtained 51 MGWR models. The MGWR model were divided into 4 groups with significant variable is house index as a global variable, an area width as a local variable and the remaining variables vary in each. Global variables are variables that significantly affect all locations, while local variables are variables that significantly affect a specific location.

  4. Personal Exposure to Mixtures of Volatile Organic Compounds: Modeling and Further Analysis of the RIOPA Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batterman, Stuart; Su, Feng-Chiao; Li, Shi; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Jia, Chunrong

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Emission sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are numerous and widespread in both indoor and outdoor environments. Concentrations of VOCs indoors typically exceed outdoor levels, and most people spend nearly 90% of their time indoors. Thus, indoor sources generally contribute the majority of VOC exposures for most people. VOC exposure has been associated with a wide range of acute and chronic health effects; for example, asthma, respiratory diseases, liver and kidney dysfunction, neurologic impairment, and cancer. Although exposures to most VOCs for most persons fall below health-based guidelines, and long-term trends show decreases in ambient emissions and concentrations, a subset of individuals experience much higher exposures that exceed guidelines. Thus, exposure to VOCs remains an important environmental health concern. The present understanding of VOC exposures is incomplete. With the exception of a few compounds, concentration and especially exposure data are limited; and like other environmental data, VOC exposure data can show multiple modes, low and high extreme values, and sometimes a large portion of data below method detection limits (MDLs). Field data also show considerable spatial or interpersonal variability, and although evidence is limited, temporal variability seems high. These characteristics can complicate modeling and other analyses aimed at risk assessment, policy actions, and exposure management. In addition to these analytic and statistical issues, exposure typically occurs as a mixture, and mixture components may interact or jointly contribute to adverse effects. However most pollutant regulations, guidelines, and studies remain focused on single compounds, and thus may underestimate cumulative exposures and risks arising from coexposures. In addition, the composition of VOC mixtures has not been thoroughly investigated, and mixture components show varying and complex dependencies. Finally, although many factors are

  5. Identification of environmental determinants for spatio-temporal patterns of norovirus outbreaks in Korea using a geographic information system and binary response models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin Hwi; Lee, Dong Hoon; Joo, Yongsung; Zoh, Kyung Duk; Ko, Gwangpyo; Kang, Joo-Hyon

    2016-11-01

    Although norovirus outbreaks are well-recognized to have strong winter seasonality relevant to low temperature and humidity, the role of artificial human-made features within geographical areas in norovirus outbreaks has rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to assess the natural and human-made environmental factors favoring the occurrence of norovirus outbreaks using nationwide surveillance data. We used a geographic information system and binary response models to examine whether the norovirus outbreaks are spatially patterned and whether these patterns are associated with specific environmental variables including service levels of water supply and sanitation systems and land-use types. The results showed that small-scale low-tech local sewage treatment plants and winter sports areas were statistically significant factors favoring norovirus outbreaks. Compactness of the land development also affected the occurrence of norovirus outbreaks; transportation, water, and forest land-uses were less favored for effective transmission of norovirus, while commercial areas were associated with an increased rate of norovirus outbreaks. We observed associations of norovirus outbreaks with various outcomes of human activities, including discharge of poorly treated sewage, overcrowding of people during winter season, and compactness of land development, which might help prioritize target regions and strategies for the management of norovirus outbreaks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Coloring geographical threshold graphs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradonjic, Milan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Percus, Allon [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Muller, Tobias [EINDHOVEN UNIV. OF TECH

    2008-01-01

    We propose a coloring algorithm for sparse random graphs generated by the geographical threshold graph (GTG) model, a generalization of random geometric graphs (RGG). In a GTG, nodes are distributed in a Euclidean space, and edges are assigned according to a threshold function involving the distance between nodes as well as randomly chosen node weights. The motivation for analyzing this model is that many real networks (e.g., wireless networks, the Internet, etc.) need to be studied by using a 'richer' stochastic model (which in this case includes both a distance between nodes and weights on the nodes). Here, we analyze the GTG coloring algorithm together with the graph's clique number, showing formally that in spite of the differences in structure between GTG and RGG, the asymptotic behavior of the chromatic number is identical: {chi}1n 1n n / 1n n (1 + {omicron}(1)). Finally, we consider the leading corrections to this expression, again using the coloring algorithm and clique number to provide bounds on the chromatic number. We show that the gap between the lower and upper bound is within C 1n n / (1n 1n n){sup 2}, and specify the constant C.

  7. Mechanistic modeling of pesticide exposure: The missing keystone of honey bee toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sponsler, Douglas B; Johnson, Reed M

    2017-04-01

    The role of pesticides in recent honey bee losses is controversial, partly because field studies often fail to detect effects predicted by laboratory studies. This dissonance highlights a critical gap in the field of honey bee toxicology: there exists little mechanistic understanding of the patterns and processes of exposure that link honey bees to pesticides in their environment. The authors submit that 2 key processes underlie honey bee pesticide exposure: 1) the acquisition of pesticide by foraging bees, and 2) the in-hive distribution of pesticide returned by foragers. The acquisition of pesticide by foraging bees must be understood as the spatiotemporal intersection between environmental contamination and honey bee foraging activity. This implies that exposure is distributional, not discrete, and that a subset of foragers may acquire harmful doses of pesticide while the mean colony exposure would appear safe. The in-hive distribution of pesticide is a complex process driven principally by food transfer interactions between colony members, and this process differs importantly between pollen and nectar. High priority should be placed on applying the extensive literature on honey bee biology to the development of more rigorously mechanistic models of honey bee pesticide exposure. In combination with mechanistic effects modeling, mechanistic exposure modeling has the potential to integrate the field of honey bee toxicology, advancing both risk assessment and basic research. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:871-881. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  8. In vitro and in vivo models of acute alcohol exposure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Angela Dolganiuc; Gyongyi Szabo

    2009-01-01

    Alcohol abuse is a global problem due to the financial burden on society and the healthcare system. While the harmful health effects of chronic alcohol abuse are well established, more recent data suggest that acute alcohol consumption also affects human wellbeing. Thus, there is a need for research models in order to fully understand the effect of acute alcohol abuse on different body systems and organs. The present manuscript summarizes the interdisciplinary advantages and disadvantages of currently available human and non-human models of acute alcohol abuse,and identifies their suitability for biomedical research.

  9. Modeling flight attendants' exposure to secondhand smoke in commercial aircraft: historical trends from 1955 to 1989.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruiling; Dix-Cooper, Linda; Hammond, S Katharine

    2015-01-01

    Flight attendants were exposed to elevated levels of secondhand smoke (SHS) in commercial aircraft when smoking was allowed on planes. During flight attendants' working years, their occupational SHS exposure was influenced by various factors, including the prevalence of active smokers on planes, fliers' smoking behaviors, airplane flight load factors, and ventilation systems. These factors have likely changed over the past six decades and would affect SHS concentrations in commercial aircraft. However, changes in flight attendants' exposure to SHS have not been examined in the literature. This study estimates the magnitude of the changes and the historic trends of flight attendants' SHS exposure in U.S. domestic commercial aircraft by integrating historical changes of contributing factors. Mass balance models were developed and evaluated to estimate flight attendants' exposure to SHS in passenger cabins, as indicated by two commonly used tracers (airborne nicotine and particulate matter (PM)). Monte Carlo simulations integrating historical trends and distributions of influence factors were used to simulate 10,000 flight attendants' exposure to SHS on commercial flights from 1955 to 1989. These models indicate that annual mean SHS PM concentrations to which flight attendants were exposed in passenger cabins steadily decreased from approximately 265 μg/m(3) in 1955 and 1960 to 93 μg/m(3) by 1989, and airborne nicotine exposure among flight attendants also decreased from 11.1 μg/m(3) in 1955 to 6.5 μg/m(3) in 1989. Using duration of employment as an indicator of flight attendants' cumulative occupational exposure to SHS in epidemiological studies would inaccurately assess their lifetime exposures and thus bias the relationship between the exposure and health effects. This historical trend should be considered in future epidemiological studies.

  10. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  11. An in-premise model for Legionella exposure during showering events

    Science.gov (United States)

    An exposure model was constructed to predict the critical Legionella densities in an engineered water system that might result in infection from inhalation of aerosols containing the pathogen while showering. The model predicted the Legionella densities in the shower air, water ...

  12. A model for probabilistic health impact assessment of exposure to food chemicals.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Voet, H.; van der Heijden, G.W.; Bos, P.M.J.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Muri, S.D.; Bruschweiler, B.J.

    2010-01-01

    A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351-371]. The aim is to char

  13. A model for probabilistic health impact assessment of exposure to food chemicals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Heijden, van der G.W.A.M.; Bos, P.M.J.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Muri, S.D.; Brüschweiler, B.J.

    2009-01-01

    A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351–371]. The aim is to char

  14. Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baveco, H.; Norman, S.; Roessink, I.; Galic, N.G.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2014-01-01

    Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a

  15. Evaluation of the Modeling of Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS) in the SHEDS-PM Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Ye; Frey, H Christopher; Liu, Xiaozhen; Deshpande, Bela K

    2009-06-01

    Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is estimated to be a major contributor to indoor PM concentration and human exposures to fine particulate matter of 2.5 microns or smaller (PM2.5). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation for Particulate Matter (SHEDS-PM) model developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates distributions of outdoor and indoor PM2.5 exposure for a specified population based on ambient concentrations and indoor emissions sources. Because indoor exposures to ETS can be high, especially in indoor residential microenvironments, a critical assessment was conducted of the methodology and data used in SHEDS-PM for estimation of indoor exposure to ETS. For the residential microenvironment, SHEDS uses a mass-balance approach which is comparable to best practices. The default inputs in SHEDS-PM were reviewed and more recent and extensive data sources were identified. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine which inputs should be prioritized for updating. Data regarding the cigarette emission rate was found to be the most important. SHEDS-PM does not currently account for in-vehicle ETS exposure; however, in-vehicle ETS-related PM2.5 levels can exceed those in residential microenvironments by a factor of 10 or more. Therefore, a mass-balance based methodology for estimating in-vehicle ETS PM2.5 concentration is evaluated. Recommendations are made regarding updating of input data and algorithms related to ETS exposure in the SHEDS-PM model.

  16. Modeling personal exposure to traffic related air pollutants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Montagne, D.R.

    2015-01-01

    The first part of this thesis is about the VE3SPA project. Land use regression (LUR) models are often used to predict the outdoor air pollution at the home address of study participants, to study long-term effects of air pollution. While several studies have documented that PM2.5 mass measured at a

  17. Assessing Geographic Information Enhancement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Loenen, B.; Zevenbergen, J.

    2010-01-01

    Assessment of geographic information infrastructures (or spatial data infrastructures) is increasingly attracting the attention of researchers in the Geographic information (GI) domain. Especially the assessment of value added GI appears to be complex. By applying the concept of value chain analysis

  18. Environmental geographic information system.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peek, Dennis W; Helfrich, Donald Alan; Gorman, Susan

    2010-08-01

    This document describes how the Environmental Geographic Information System (EGIS) was used, along with externally received data, to create maps for the Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement (SWEIS) Source Document project. Data quality among the various classes of geographic information system (GIS) data is addressed. A complete listing of map layers used is provided.

  19. Wyoming greater sage-grouse habitat prioritization: a collection of multi-scale seasonal models and geographic information systems land management tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Michael S.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Fedy, Bradley C.

    2015-01-01

    With rapidly changing landscape conditions within Wyoming and the potential effects of landscape changes on sage-grouse habitat, land managers and conservation planners, among others, need procedures to assess the location and juxtaposition of important habitats, land-cover, and land-use patterns to balance wildlife requirements with multiple human land uses. Biologists frequently develop habitat-selection studies to identify prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern to increase understanding and help guide habitat-conservation efforts. Recently, the authors undertook a large-scale collaborative effort that developed habitat-selection models for Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) across large landscapes in Wyoming, USA and for multiple life-stages (nesting, late brood-rearing, and winter). We developed these habitat models using resource selection functions, based upon sage-grouse telemetry data collected for localized studies and within each life-stage. The models allowed us to characterize and spatially predict seasonal sage-grouse habitat use in Wyoming. Due to the quantity of models, the diversity of model predictors (in the form of geographic information system data) produced by analyses, and the variety of potential applications for these data, we present here a resource that complements our published modeling effort, which will further support land managers.

  20. A memory model for internet hits after media exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chessa, Antonio G.; Murre, Jaap M. J.

    2004-02-01

    We present a cognitive model, based on the mathematical theory of point processes, which extends the results of two studies by Johansen (Physica A 276 (2000) 338; Physica A 296 (2001) 539) on download relaxation dynamics. Responses from subjects are considered as single events, which are received from original listeners or readers and from a network of social contacts, through which a message may propagate further. We collected data on the number of daily visits at our web site after a radio interview with the second author, in which the name of the web site was mentioned. A model based on an exponential hit time distribution and a homogeneous point process for regular visitors fits our data and Johansen's very well and is superior to both the power law and the logarithmic function. The fits suggest that hit data from different sources share the same cognitive mechanism, which are controlled merely by the encoding and retrieval of the target information memorised.

  1. SAR exposure from UHF RFID reader in adult, child, pregnant woman, and fetus anatomical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiocchi, Serena; Markakis, Ioannis A; Ravazzani, Paolo; Samaras, Theodoros

    2013-09-01

    The spread of radio frequency identification (RFID) devices in ubiquitous applications without their simultaneous exposure assessment could give rise to public concerns about their potential adverse health effects. Among the various RFID system categories, the ultra high frequency (UHF) RFID systems have recently started to be widely used in many applications. This study addresses a computational exposure assessment of the electromagnetic radiation generated by a realistic UHF RFID reader, quantifying the exposure levels in different exposure scenarios and subjects (two adults, four children, and two anatomical models of women 7 and 9 months pregnant). The results of the computations are presented in terms of the whole-body and peak spatial specific absorption rate (SAR) averaged over 10 g of tissue to allow comparison with the basic restrictions of the exposure guidelines. The SAR levels in the adults and children were below 0.02 and 0.8 W/kg in whole-body SAR and maximum peak SAR levels, respectively, for all tested positions of the antenna. On the contrary, exposure of pregnant women and fetuses resulted in maximum peak SAR(10 g) values close to the values suggested by the guidelines (2 W/kg) in some of the exposure scenarios with the antenna positioned in front of the abdomen and with a 100% duty cycle and 1 W radiated power.

  2. Modeling the distribution of Schistosoma mansoni and host snails in Uganda using satellite sensor data and Geographical Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Jørgensen, A; Kabatereine, N B

    2005-01-01

    by developing annual and seasonal composite models, and iteratively analysing for their relationship with parasite and snail distribution. The dry season composite model predicted an endemic area that produced the best fit with the distribution of schools with > or =5% prevalence. NDVI values of 151-174, day...

  3. Land Use as a Driver of Patterns of Rodenticide Exposure in Modeled Kit Fox Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theresa M Nogeire

    Full Text Available Although rodenticides are increasingly regulated, they nonetheless cause poisonings in many non-target wildlife species. Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide use is common in agricultural and residential landscapes. Here, we use an individual-based population model to assess potential population-wide effects of rodenticide exposures on the endangered San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica. We estimate likelihood of rodenticide exposure across the species range for each land cover type based on a database of reported pesticide use and literature. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we find that 36% of modeled kit foxes are likely exposed, resulting in a 7-18% decline in the range-wide modeled kit fox population that can be linked to rodenticide use. Exposures of kit foxes in low-density developed areas accounted for 70% of the population-wide exposures to rodenticides. We conclude that exposures of non-target kit foxes could be greatly mitigated by reducing the use of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in low-density developed areas near vulnerable populations.

  4. [Predictive models for the assessment of occupational exposure to chemicals: a new challenge for employers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromiec, Jan Piotr; Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata; Jankowska, Agnieszka; Czerczak, Sławomir

    2013-01-01

    Employers are obliged to carry out and document the risk associated with the use of chemical substances. The best but the most expensive method is to measure workplace concentrations of chemicals. At present no "measureless" method for risk assessment is available in Poland, but predictive models for such assessments have been developed in some countries. The purpose of this work is to review and evaluate the applicability of selected predictive methods for assessing occupational inhalation exposure and related risk to check the compliance with Occupational Exposure Limits (OELs), as well as the compliance with REACH obligations. Based on the literature data HSE COSHH Essentials, EASE, ECETOC TRA, Stoffenmanager, and EMKG-Expo-Tool were evaluated. The data on validation of predictive models were also examined. It seems that predictive models may be used as a useful method for Tier 1 assessment of occupational exposure by inhalation. Since the levels of exposure are frequently overestimated, they should be considered as "rational worst cases" for selection of proper control measures. Bearing in mind that the number of available exposure scenarios and PROC categories is limited, further validation by field surveys is highly recommended. Predictive models may serve as a good tool for preliminary risk assessment and selection of the most appropriate risk control measures in Polish small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) providing that they are available in the Polish language. This also requires an extensive training of their future users.

  5. Predictive models for the assessment of occupational exposure to chemicals: A new challenge for employers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Piotr Gromiec

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Employers are obliged to carry out and document the risk associated with the use of chemical substances. The best but the most expensive method is to measure workplace concentrations of chemicals. At present no "measureless" method for risk assessment is available in Poland, but predictive models for such assessments have been developed in some countries. The purpose of this work is to review and evaluate the applicability of selected predictive methods for assessing occupational inhalation exposure and related risk to check the compliance with Occupational Exposure Limits (OELs, as well as the compliance with REACH obligations. Based on the literature data HSE COSHH Essentials, EASE, ECETOC TRA, Stoffenmanager, and EMKG-Expo-Tool were evaluated. The data on validation of predictive models were also examined. It seems that predictive models may be used as a useful method for Tier 1 assessment of occupational exposure by inhalation. Since the levels of exposure are frequently overestimated, they should be considered as "rational worst cases" for selection of proper control measures. Bearing in mind that the number of available exposure scenarios and PROC categories is limited, further validation by field surveys is highly recommended. Predictive models may serve as a good tool for preliminary risk assessment and selection of the most appropriate risk control measures in Polish small and medium size enterprises (SMEs providing that they are available in the Polish language. This also requires an extensive training of their future users. Med Pr 2013;64(5:699–716

  6. Simulation of longitudinal exposure data with variance-covariance structures based on mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Peng; Xue, Jianping; Li, Zhilin

    2013-03-01

    Longitudinal data are important in exposure and risk assessments, especially for pollutants with long half-lives in the human body and where chronic exposures to current levels in the environment raise concerns for human health effects. It is usually difficult and expensive to obtain large longitudinal data sets for human exposure studies. This article reports a new simulation method to generate longitudinal data with flexible numbers of subjects and days. Mixed models are used to describe the variance-covariance structures of input longitudinal data. Based on estimated model parameters, simulation data are generated with similar statistical characteristics compared to the input data. Three criteria are used to determine similarity: the overall mean and standard deviation, the variance components percentages, and the average autocorrelation coefficients. Upon the discussion of mixed models, a simulation procedure is produced and numerical results are shown through one human exposure study. Simulations of three sets of exposure data successfully meet above criteria. In particular, simulations can always retain correct weights of inter- and intrasubject variances as in the input data. Autocorrelations are also well followed. Compared with other simulation algorithms, this new method stores more information about the input overall distribution so as to satisfy the above multiple criteria for statistical targets. In addition, it generates values from numerous data sources and simulates continuous observed variables better than current data methods. This new method also provides flexible options in both modeling and simulation procedures according to various user requirements.

  7. Prolonged exposure to acetaminophen reduces testosterone production by the human fetal testis in a xenograft model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van den Driesche, Sander; Macdonald, Joni; Anderson, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Most common male reproductive disorders are linked to lower testosterone exposure in fetal life, although the factors responsible for suppressing fetal testosterone remain largely unknown. Protracted use of acetaminophen during pregnancy is associated with increased risk of cryptorchidism in sons......, but effects on fetal testosterone production have not been demonstrated. We used a validated xenograft model to expose human fetal testes to clinically relevant doses and regimens of acetaminophen. Exposure to a therapeutic dose of acetaminophen for 7 days significantly reduced plasma testosterone (45......% reduction; P = 0.025) and seminal vesicle weight (a biomarker of androgen exposure; 18% reduction; P = 0.005) in castrate host mice bearing human fetal testis xenografts, whereas acetaminophen exposure for just 1 day did not alter either parameter. Plasma acetaminophen concentrations (at 1 hour after...

  8. Cartography of flood hazard by overflowing rivers using hydraulic modeling and geographic information system: Oued El Harrach case (North of Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. W. Astite

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is the management of flood risk through the use of cartography of flood hazards by overflowing rivers. This cartography is developed using modern simulation tools namely the hydraulic model (HECRAS as well as the Geographic Information System (ArcGis. The study concerns Oued El Harrach (North of Algeria surrounding area which has been subject to several floods causing significant human and material damage. This loss is a consequence of the use flood zones as habitats for people. This can be avoided in the future by use the mapping of the spatial extent of the flood hazard on the land of the Oued El Harrach. Hence the importance of the cartography developed in this study as an essential tool for decision makers in prevention, protection and management of flood risks.

  9. Geographical variation and the determinants of domestic endotoxin levels in mattress dust in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, C.M.; Thiering, E.; Doekes, G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/070079803; Zock, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/095184309; Bakolis, I.; Norbäck, D.; Sunyer, J.; Villani, S.; Verlato, G.; Täubel, M.; Jarvis, D.

    2012-01-01

    Endotoxin exposures have manifold effects on human health. The geographical variation and determinants of domestic endotoxin levels in Europe have not yet been extensively described. To investigate the geographical variation and determinants of domestic endotoxin concentrations in mattress dust in

  10. Design considerations for case series models with exposure onset measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Sandra M; Dalrymple, Lorien S; Sentürk, Damla; Nguyen, Danh V

    2013-02-28

    The case series model allows for estimation of the relative incidence of events, such as cardiovascular events, within a pre-specified time window after an exposure, such as an infection. The method requires only cases (individuals with events) and controls for all fixed/time-invariant confounders. The measurement error case series model extends the original case series model to handle imperfect data, where the timing of an infection (exposure) is not known precisely. In this work, we propose a method for power/sample size determination for the measurement error case series model. Extensive simulation studies are used to assess the accuracy of the proposed sample size formulas. We also examine the magnitude of the relative loss of power due to exposure onset measurement error, compared with the ideal situation where the time of exposure is measured precisely. To facilitate the design of case series studies, we provide publicly available web-based tools for determining power/sample size for both the measurement error case series model as well as the standard case series model.

  11. RESRAD benchmarking against six radiation exposure pathway models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faillace, E.R.; Cheng, J.J.; Yu, C.

    1994-10-01

    A series of benchmarking runs were conducted so that results obtained with the RESRAD code could be compared against those obtained with six pathway analysis models used to determine the radiation dose to an individual living on a radiologically contaminated site. The RESRAD computer code was benchmarked against five other computer codes - GENII-S, GENII, DECOM, PRESTO-EPA-CPG, and PATHRAE-EPA - and the uncodified methodology presented in the NUREG/CR-5512 report. Estimated doses for the external gamma pathway; the dust inhalation pathway; and the soil, food, and water ingestion pathways were calculated for each methodology by matching, to the extent possible, input parameters such as occupancy, shielding, and consumption factors.

  12. Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to air pollution in cohort studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beverland, I. J.; Robertson, C.; Yap, C.; Heal, M. R.; Cohen, G. R.; Henderson, D. E. J.; Hart, C. L.; Agius, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    This study compared three spatio-temporal models for estimation of exposure to air pollution throughout the central part of Scotland during 1970-79 for approximately 21,600 individuals in 2 closely-related prospective cohort studies. Although 181 black smoke (BS) monitoring sites operated in this region at some point during 1970-79, a substantial amount of BS exposure data was missing at many sites. The three exposure estimation methods were: (i) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by assignment of exposure by inverse distance weighting of observed BS at nearby monitoring sites (IDWBS); (ii) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by a spatial regression additive model using four local air quality predictors (LAQP): altitude; distance to the nearest major road; household density within a 250 m buffer zone; and distance to the edge of urban boundary (AMBS); (iii) a multilevel spatio-temporal model using LAQP (MultiBS). The three methods were evaluated using maps of predicted BS, and cross validation using monitored and imputed BS at sites with ≥80% data. The use of LAQP in the AMBS and MultiBS exposure models provided spatial patterns in BS consistent with known sources of BS associated with major roads and the centre of urban areas. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that the MultiBS model provided more precise predictions (R2 = 60%) of decadal geometric mean BS concentrations at monitoring sites compared with the IDWBS and AMBS models (R2 of 19% and 20%, respectively).

  13. MULTIMEDIA ON GEOGRAPHIC NETWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Merlanti, Danilo

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis we investigate the topic of the multimedia contents distribution on a geo- graphic network which is a rarefied and huge field. First of all we have to classify the main parts necessary in the multimedia distribution on a geographic network. The main aspects of a geographic network that will be highlighted in this thesis are: the mechanism used to retrieve the sources of the multimedia content; in the case of the peer-to-peer network on geographic network one of t...

  14. Railway noise annoyance: exposure-response relationships and testing a theoretical model by structural equation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennig, Sibylle; Schady, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    In some regions the exposure to railway noise is extremely concentrated, which may lead to high residential annoyance. Nonacoustical factors contribute to these reactions, but there is limited evidence on the interrelations between the nonacoustical factors that influence railway noise annoyance. The aims of the present study were (1) to examine exposure-response relationships between long-term railway noise exposure and annoyance in a region severely affected by railway noise and (2) to determine a priori proposed interrelations between nonacoustical factors by structural equation analysis. Residents (n = 320) living close to railway tracks in the Middle Rhine Valley completed a socio-acoustic survey. Individual noise exposure levels were calculated by an acoustical simulation model for this area. The derived exposure-response relationships indicated considerably higher annoyance at the same noise exposure level than would have been predicted by the European Union standard curve, particularly for the night-time period. In the structural equation analysis, 72% of the variance in noise annoyance was explained by the noise exposure (L(den)) and nonacoustical variables. The model provides insights into several causal mechanisms underlying the formation of railway noise annoyance considering indirect and reciprocal effects. The concern about harmful effects of railway noise and railway traffic, the perceived control and coping capacity, and the individual noise sensitivity were the most important factors that influence noise annoyance. All effects of the nonacoustical factors on annoyance were mediated by the perceived control and coping capacity and additionally proposed indirect effects of the theoretical model were supported by the data.

  15. Railway noise annoyance: Exposure-response relationships and testing a theoretical model by structural equation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibylle Pennig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In some regions the exposure to railway noise is extremely concentrated, which may lead to high residential annoyance. Nonacoustical factors contribute to these reactions, but there is limited evidence on the interrelations between the nonacoustical factors that influence railway noise annoyance. The aims of the present study were (1 to examine exposure-response relationships between long-term railway noise exposure and annoyance in a region severely affected by railway noise and (2 to determine a priori proposed interrelations between nonacoustical factors by structural equation analysis. Residents (n = 320 living close to railway tracks in the Middle Rhine Valley completed a socio-acoustic survey. Individual noise exposure levels were calculated by an acoustical simulation model for this area. The derived exposure-response relationships indicated considerably higher annoyance at the same noise exposure level than would have been predicted by the European Union standard curve, particularly for the night-time period. In the structural equation analysis, 72% of the variance in noise annoyance was explained by the noise exposure (Lden and nonacoustical variables. The model provides insights into several causal mechanisms underlying the formation of railway noise annoyance considering indirect and reciprocal effects. The concern about harmful effects of railway noise and railway traffic, the perceived control and coping capacity, and the individual noise sensitivity were the most important factors that influence noise annoyance. All effects of the nonacoustical factors on annoyance were mediated by the perceived control and coping capacity and additionally proposed indirect effects of the theoretical model were supported by the data.

  16. A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konrad, Sarah K; Zou, Li; Miller, Scott N

    2012-11-01

    A degree-day (DD) model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates "compound risk" maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

  17. A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah K. Konrad

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A degree-day (DD model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10- km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates “compound risk” maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

  18. Combining multiple models to predict the geographical distribution of the Baru tree (Dipteryx alata Vogel) in the Brazilian Cerrado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabout, J C; Soares, T N; Diniz-Filho, J A F; De Marco Júnior, P; Telles, M P C; Naves, R V; Chaves, L J

    2010-11-01

    The Brazilian Cerrado is a biome of great biodiversity, but detailed information about the diversity and distribution of species in this region is still insufficient for both testing ecological hypotheses and for conservation purposes. Among native plants in the Cerrado, Dipteryx alata Vogel (commonly known as the "Baru" tree), has a high potential for exploitation. The aims of this paper were to predict the potential spatial distribution of D. alata in the Brazilian Cerrado utilising five different niche modelling techniques. These techniques usually provide distinct results, so it may be difficult to choose amongst them. To adjust for this uncertainty, we employ an ensemble forecasting approach to predict the spatial distribution of the Baru tree. We accumulated a total of 448 occurrence points and modelled the subsequent predicted occurrences using seven climatic variables. Five different presence-only ecological niche modelling techniques (GARP, Maxent, BIOCLIM, Mahalanobis Distance and Euclidean Distance) were used and the performance of these models was compared using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). All models presented AUC values higher than 0.68, and GARP presented the highest AUC value, whereas Euclidean Distance presented the lowest. The ensemble forecasting approach suggested a high suitability for the occurrence of the Baru tree in the Central-Western region of the Brazilian Cerrado. Our study demonstrated that modelling species distribution using ensemble forecasting can be an important computational tool for better establishing sampling strategies and for improving our biodiversity knowledge to better identify priority areas for conservation. For the Baru tree, we recommend priority actions for conservation in the central region of the Cerrado Biome.

  19. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Tulve, Nicolle S

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below

  20. Prognostic land surface albedo from a dynamic global vegetation model clumped canopy radiative transfer scheme and satellite-derived geographic forest heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiang, N. Y.; Yang, W.; Ni-Meister, W.; Aleinov, I. D.; Jonas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Vegetation cover was introduced into general circulations models (GCMs) in the 1980's to account for the effect of land surface albedo and water vapor conductance on the Earth's climate. Schemes assigning canopy albedoes by broad biome type have been superceded in 1990's by canopy radiative transfer schemes for homogeneous canopies obeying Beer's Law extinction as a function of leaf area index (LAI). Leaf albedo and often canopy height are prescribed by plant functional type (PFT). It is recognized that this approach does not effectively describe geographic variation in the radiative transfer of vegetated cover, particularly for mixed and sparse canopies. GCM-coupled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have retained these simple canopy representations, with little further evaluation of their albedos. With the emergence lidar-derived canopy vertical structure data, DGVM modelers are now revisiting albedo simulation. We present preliminary prognostic global land surface albedo produced by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBM), a DGVM coupled to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. The Ent TBM is a next generation DGVM designed to incorporate variation in canopy heights, and mixed and sparse canopies. For such dynamically varying canopy structure, it uses the Analytical Clumped Two-Stream (ACTS) canopy radiative transfer model, which is derived from gap probability theory for canopies of tree cohorts with ellipsoidal crowns, and accounts for soil, snow, and bare stems. We have developed a first-order global vegetation structure data set (GVSD), which gives a year of satellite-derived geographic variation in canopy height, maximum canopy leaf area, and seasonal LAI. Combined with Ent allometric relations, this data set provides population density and foliage clumping within crowns. We compare the Ent prognostic albedoes to those of the previous GISS GCM scheme, and to satellite estimates. The impact of albedo differences on surface

  1. Operation of the computer model for direct atomic oxygen exposure of Earth satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourassa, R. J.; Gruenbaum, P. E.; Gillis, J. R.; Hargraves, C. R.

    1995-01-01

    One of the primary causes of material degradation in low Earth orbit (LEO) is exposure to atomic oxygen. When atomic oxygen molecules collide with an orbiting spacecraft, the relative velocity is 7 to 8 km/sec and the collision energy is 4 to 5 eV per atom. Under these conditions, atomic oxygen may initiate a number of chemical and physical reactions with exposed materials. These reactions contribute to material degradation, surface erosion, and contamination. Interpretation of these effects on materials and the design of space hardware to withstand on-orbit conditions requires quantitative knowledge of the atomic oxygen exposure environment. Atomic oxygen flux is a function of orbit altitude, the orientation of the orbit plan to the Sun, solar and geomagnetic activity, and the angle between exposed surfaces and the spacecraft heading. We have developed a computer model to predict the atomic oxygen exposure of spacecraft in low Earth orbit. The application of this computer model is discussed.

  2. Lung cancer attributable to indoor radon exposure in France using different risk models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catelinois, O.C.; Laurier, D.L.; Rogel, A.R.; Billon, S.B.; Tirmarche, M.T. [Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France); Hemon, Dh. [INSERM -U170-IFR69, 94 - Villejuif (France); Verger, P.V. [Regional Health Observatory Provence Alpes Cote d' Azur, 13 - Marseille (France)

    2006-07-01

    1999 allowing to perform a sensibility analysis according to the geographical level of calculation. Uncertainties associated to risk coefficients and exposures have been quantified and it impact on risk estimates is calculated. The estimated number of deaths attributable to domestic radon exposure ranges from 1,234 (90 % uncertainty interval (UI): 593 2,156) to 3,108 (90 % UI: 2,996 3,221). The corresponding risk fractions range from 5 % (90 % UI: 2 % - 9 %) to 12.4 % (90 % UI: 11.9 % - 12.8 %). This work provides an adaptation of the classical risk assessment method integrating each of its step such as a discussion about the choice of the dose - response relationship. The data analysis considers the interaction between ionizing radiation and other risk factors and a quantification of uncertainties. This work provides new results showing the importance of the choice of the dose-response relationship and of the quantification of uncertainties in risk assessment. (authors)

  3. Comparative Benchmark Dose Modeling as a Tool to Make the First Estimate of Safe Human Exposure Levels to Lunar Dust