Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Dan Børge; Vesth, Tammi Camilla; Hallin, Peter Fischer

2012-01-01

Background: The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based...... on a genomic sequence, would thus allow for an efficient and targeted search for production organisms, reducing the need for culturing experiments. Results: This study found a total of 40 protein families useful for distinction between three thermophilicity classes (thermophiles, mesophiles and psychrophiles...... that protein families associated with specific thermophilicity classes can provide effective input data for thermophilicity prediction, and that the naive Bayesian approach is effective for such a task. The program created for this study is able to efficiently distinguish between thermophilic, mesophilic...

bNEAT: a Bayesian network method for detecting epistatic interactions in genome-wide association studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Xue-wen

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions plays a significant role in improving pathogenesis, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of complex human diseases. A recent study in automatic detection of epistatic interactions shows that Markov Blanket-based methods are capable of finding genetic variants strongly associated with common diseases and reducing false positives when the number of instances is large. Unfortunately, a typical dataset from genome-wide association studies consists of very limited number of examples, where current methods including Markov Blanket-based method may perform poorly. Results To address small sample problems, we propose a Bayesian network-based approach (bNEAT to detect epistatic interactions. The proposed method also employs a Branch-and-Bound technique for learning. We apply the proposed method to simulated datasets based on four disease models and a real dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms Markov Blanket-based methods and other commonly-used methods, especially when the number of samples is small. Conclusions Our results show bNEAT can obtain a strong power regardless of the number of samples and is especially suitable for detecting epistatic interactions with slight or no marginal effects. The merits of the proposed approach lie in two aspects: a suitable score for Bayesian network structure learning that can reflect higher-order epistatic interactions and a heuristic Bayesian network structure learning method.

Combined amplification and hybridization techniques for genome scanning in vegetatively propagated crops

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahl, G.; Ramser, J.; Terauchi, R.; Lopez-Peralta, C.; Asemota, H.N.; Weising, K.

1998-01-01

A combination of PCR- and hybridization-based genome scanning techniques and sequence comparisons between non-coding chloroplast DNA flanking tRNA genes has been employed to screen Dioscorea species for intra- and interspecific genetic diversity. This methodology detected extensive polymorphisms within Dioscorea bulbifera L., and revealed taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships among cultivated Guinea yams varieties and their potential wild progenitors. Finally, screening of yam germplasm grown in Jamaica permitted reliable discrimination between all major cultivars. Genome scanning by micro satellite-primed PCR (MP-PCR) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis in combination with the novel random amplified micro satellite polymorphisms (RAMPO) hybridization technique has shown high potential for the genetic analysis of yams, and holds promise for other vegetatively propagated orphan crops. (author)

A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

2016-01-01

Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. PMID:25281847

A Bayesian Supertree Model for Genome-Wide Species Tree Reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

De Oliveira Martins, Leonardo; Mallo, Diego; Posada, David

2016-05-01

Current phylogenomic data sets highlight the need for species tree methods able to deal with several sources of gene tree/species tree incongruence. At the same time, we need to make most use of all available data. Most species tree methods deal with single processes of phylogenetic discordance, namely, gene duplication and loss, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) or horizontal gene transfer. In this manuscript, we address the problem of species tree inference from multilocus, genome-wide data sets regardless of the presence of gene duplication and loss and ILS therefore without the need to identify orthologs or to use a single individual per species. We do this by extending the idea of Maximum Likelihood (ML) supertrees to a hierarchical Bayesian model where several sources of gene tree/species tree disagreement can be accounted for in a modular manner. We implemented this model in a computer program called guenomu whose inputs are posterior distributions of unrooted gene tree topologies for multiple gene families, and whose output is the posterior distribution of rooted species tree topologies. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of our approach in comparison with other species tree approaches able to deal with more than one leaf from the same species. Our method ranked best under simulated data sets, in spite of ignoring branch lengths, and performed well on empirical data, as well as being fast enough to analyze relatively large data sets. Our Bayesian supertree method was also very successful in obtaining better estimates of gene trees, by reducing the uncertainty in their distributions. In addition, our results show that under complex simulation scenarios, gene tree parsimony is also a competitive approach once we consider its speed, in contrast to more sophisticated models. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Combined amplification and hybridization techniques for genome scanning in vegetatively propagated crops

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahl, G; Ramser, J; Terauchi, R [Biocentre, University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Lopez-Peralta, C [IRGP, Colegio de Postgraduados, Montecillo, Edo. de Mexico, Texcoco (Mexico); Asemota, H N [Biotechnology Centre, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston (Jamaica); Weising, K [School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland (New Zealand)

1998-10-01

A combination of PCR- and hybridization-based genome scanning techniques and sequence comparisons between non-coding chloroplast DNA flanking tRNA genes has been employed to screen Dioscorea species for intra- and interspecific genetic diversity. This methodology detected extensive polymorphisms within Dioscorea bulbifera L., and revealed taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships among cultivated Guinea yams varieties and their potential wild progenitors. Finally, screening of yam germplasm grown in Jamaica permitted reliable discrimination between all major cultivars. Genome scanning by micro satellite-primed PCR (MP-PCR) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis in combination with the novel random amplified micro satellite polymorphisms (RAMPO) hybridization technique has shown high potential for the genetic analysis of yams, and holds promise for other vegetatively propagated orphan crops. (author) 46 refs, 3 figs, 3 tabs

An empirical Bayes method for updating inferences in analysis of quantitative trait loci using information from related genome scans.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Kui; Wiener, Howard; Beasley, Mark; George, Varghese; Amos, Christopher I; Allison, David B

2006-08-01

Individual genome scans for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping often suffer from low statistical power and imprecise estimates of QTL location and effect. This lack of precision yields large confidence intervals for QTL location, which are problematic for subsequent fine mapping and positional cloning. In prioritizing areas for follow-up after an initial genome scan and in evaluating the credibility of apparent linkage signals, investigators typically examine the results of other genome scans of the same phenotype and informally update their beliefs about which linkage signals in their scan most merit confidence and follow-up via a subjective-intuitive integration approach. A method that acknowledges the wisdom of this general paradigm but formally borrows information from other scans to increase confidence in objectivity would be a benefit. We developed an empirical Bayes analytic method to integrate information from multiple genome scans. The linkage statistic obtained from a single genome scan study is updated by incorporating statistics from other genome scans as prior information. This technique does not require that all studies have an identical marker map or a common estimated QTL effect. The updated linkage statistic can then be used for the estimation of QTL location and effect. We evaluate the performance of our method by using extensive simulations based on actual marker spacing and allele frequencies from available data. Results indicate that the empirical Bayes method can account for between-study heterogeneity, estimate the QTL location and effect more precisely, and provide narrower confidence intervals than results from any single individual study. We also compared the empirical Bayes method with a method originally developed for meta-analysis (a closely related but distinct purpose). In the face of marked heterogeneity among studies, the empirical Bayes method outperforms the comparator.

SINE_scan: an efficient tool to discover short interspersed nuclear elements (SINEs) in large-scale genomic datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Hongliang; Wang, Hao

2017-03-01

Short Interspersed Nuclear Elements (SINEs) are transposable elements (TEs) that amplify through a copy-and-paste mode via RNA intermediates. The computational identification of new SINEs are challenging because of their weak structural signals and rapid diversification in sequences. Here we report SINE_Scan, a highly efficient program to predict SINE elements in genomic DNA sequences. SINE_Scan integrates hallmark of SINE transposition, copy number and structural signals to identify a SINE element. SINE_Scan outperforms the previously published de novo SINE discovery program. It shows high sensitivity and specificity in 19 plant and animal genome assemblies, of which sizes vary from 120 Mb to 3.5 Gb. It identifies numerous new families and substantially increases the estimation of the abundance of SINEs in these genomes. The code of SINE_Scan is freely available at http://github.com/maohlzj/SINE_Scan , implemented in PERL and supported on Linux. wangh8@fudan.edu.cn. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide linkage scans of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhou, K.; Dempfle, A.; Arcos-Burgos, M.; Bakker, S.C.; Banaschewski, T.; Biederman, J; Buitelaar, J.K.; Castellanos, F.X.; Doyle, A.; Ebstein, R.; Ekholm, J.; Forabosco, P.; Franke, F.; Freitag, C.; Friedel, S.; Gill, M.; Hebebrand, J.; Hinney, A.; Jacob, C.; Lesch, K.P.; Loo, S.K.; Lopera, F.; McCracken, J.T.; McGough, J.J.; Meyer, J.; Mick, E.; Miranda, A.; Muenkel, M.; Mulas, F.; Nelson, S.F.; Nguyen, T.T.; Oades, R.D.; Ogdie, M.N.; Palacio, J.D.; Pineda, D.; Reif, A.; Renner, T.J.; Roeyers, H.; Romanos, M.; Rothenberger, A.; Schäfer, H.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sinke, R.J.; Smalley, S.L.; Sonuga-Barke, E.; Steinhausen, H.C.; van der Meulen, E.; Walitza, S.; Warnke, A.; Lewis, C.M.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.

2008-01-01

Genetic contribution to the development of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is well established. Seven independent genome-wide linkage scans have been performed to map loci that increase the risk for ADHD. Although significant linkage signals were identified in some of the studies,

Meta-analysis of genome-wide linkage scans of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhou, K.; Dempfle, A.; Arcos-Burgos, M.; Bakker, S.C.; Banaschewski, T.; Biederman, J.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Castellanos, F.X.; Doyle, A.; Ebstein, R.P.; Ekholm, J.; Forabosco, P.; Franke, B.; Freitag, C.; Friedel, S.; Gill, M.; Hebebrand, J.; Hinney, A.; Jacob, C.; Lesch, K.P.; Loo, S.K.; Lopera, F.; McCracken, J.T.; McGough, J.J.; Meyer, J.; Mick, E.; Miranda, A.; Muenke, M.; Mulas, F.; Nelson, S.F.; Nguyen, T.T.; Oades, R.D.; Ogdie, M.N.; Palacio, J.D.; Pineda, D.; Reif, A.; Renner, T.J.; Roeyers, H.; Romanos, M.; Rothenberger, A.; Schafer, H.; Sergeant, J.A.; Sinke, R.J.; Smalley, S.L.; Sonuga-Barke, E.J.S.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Meulen, E. van der; Walitza, S.; Warnke, A.; Lewis, C.M.; Faraone, S.V.; Asherson, P.

2008-01-01

Genetic contribution to the development of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is well established. Seven independent genome-wide linkage scans have been performed to map loci that increase the risk for ADHD. Although significant linkage signals were identified in some of the studies,

Accounting for linkage disequilibrium in genome scans for selection without individual genotypes: The local score approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Fariello, María Inés; Boitard, Simon; Mercier, Sabine; Robelin, David; Faraut, Thomas; Arnould, Cécile; Recoquillay, Julien; Bouchez, Olivier; Salin, Gérald; Dehais, Patrice; Gourichon, David; Leroux, Sophie; Pitel, Frédérique; Leterrier, Christine; SanCristobal, Magali

2017-07-01

Detecting genomic footprints of selection is an important step in the understanding of evolution. Accounting for linkage disequilibrium in genome scans increases detection power, but haplotype-based methods require individual genotypes and are not applicable on pool-sequenced samples. We propose to take advantage of the local score approach to account for linkage disequilibrium in genome scans for selection, cumulating (possibly small) signals from single markers over a genomic segment, to clearly pinpoint a selection signal. Using computer simulations, we demonstrate that this approach detects selection with higher power than several state-of-the-art single-marker, windowing or haplotype-based approaches. We illustrate this on two benchmark data sets including individual genotypes, for which we obtain similar results with the local score and one haplotype-based approach. Finally, we apply the local score approach to Pool-Seq data obtained from a divergent selection experiment on behaviour in quail and obtain precise and biologically coherent selection signals: while competing methods fail to highlight any clear selection signature, our method detects several regions involving genes known to act on social responsiveness or autistic traits. Although we focus here on the detection of positive selection from multiple population data, the local score approach is general and can be applied to other genome scans for selection or other genomewide analyses such as GWAS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

AFLP genome scans suggest divergent selection on colour patterning in allopatric colour morphs of a cichlid fish.

Science.gov (United States)

Mattersdorfer, Karin; Koblmüller, Stephan; Sefc, Kristina M

2012-07-01

Genome scan-based tests for selection are directly applicable to natural populations to study the genetic and evolutionary mechanisms behind phenotypic differentiation. We conducted AFLP genome scans in three distinct geographic colour morphs of the cichlid fish Tropheus moorii to assess whether the extant, allopatric colour pattern differentiation can be explained by drift and to identify markers mapping to genomic regions possibly involved in colour patterning. The tested morphs occupy adjacent shore sections in southern Lake Tanganyika and are separated from each other by major habitat barriers. The genome scans revealed significant genetic structure between morphs, but a very low proportion of loci fixed for alternative AFLP alleles in different morphs. This high level of polymorphism within morphs suggested that colour pattern differentiation did not result exclusively from neutral processes. Outlier detection methods identified six loci with excess differentiation in the comparison between a bluish and a yellow-blotch morph and five different outlier loci in comparisons of each of these morphs with a red morph. As population expansions and the genetic structure of Tropheus make the outlier approach prone to false-positive signals of selection, we examined the correlation between outlier locus alleles and colour phenotypes in a genetic and phenotypic cline between two morphs. Distributions of allele frequencies at one outlier locus were indeed consistent with linkage to a colour locus. Despite the challenges posed by population structure and demography, our results encourage the cautious application of genome scans to studies of divergent selection in subdivided and recently expanded populations. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Identification of somatic mutations in cancer through Bayesian-based analysis of sequenced genome pairs.

Science.gov (United States)

Christoforides, Alexis; Carpten, John D; Weiss, Glen J; Demeure, Michael J; Von Hoff, Daniel D; Craig, David W

2013-05-04

The field of cancer genomics has rapidly adopted next-generation sequencing (NGS) in order to study and characterize malignant tumors with unprecedented resolution. In particular for cancer, one is often trying to identify somatic mutations--changes specific to a tumor and not within an individual's germline. However, false positive and false negative detections often result from lack of sufficient variant evidence, contamination of the biopsy by stromal tissue, sequencing errors, and the erroneous classification of germline variation as tumor-specific. We have developed a generalized Bayesian analysis framework for matched tumor/normal samples with the purpose of identifying tumor-specific alterations such as single nucleotide mutations, small insertions/deletions, and structural variation. We describe our methodology, and discuss its application to other types of paired-tissue analysis such as the detection of loss of heterozygosity as well as allelic imbalance. We also demonstrate the high level of sensitivity and specificity in discovering simulated somatic mutations, for various combinations of a) genomic coverage and b) emulated heterogeneity. We present a Java-based implementation of our methods named Seurat, which is made available for free academic use. We have demonstrated and reported on the discovery of different types of somatic change by applying Seurat to an experimentally-derived cancer dataset using our methods; and have discussed considerations and practices regarding the accurate detection of somatic events in cancer genomes. Seurat is available at https://sites.google.com/site/seuratsomatic.

Integrating Crop Growth Models with Whole Genome Prediction through Approximate Bayesian Computation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Technow

Full Text Available Genomic selection, enabled by whole genome prediction (WGP methods, is revolutionizing plant breeding. Existing WGP methods have been shown to deliver accurate predictions in the most common settings, such as prediction of across environment performance for traits with additive gene effects. However, prediction of traits with non-additive gene effects and prediction of genotype by environment interaction (G×E, continues to be challenging. Previous attempts to increase prediction accuracy for these particularly difficult tasks employed prediction methods that are purely statistical in nature. Augmenting the statistical methods with biological knowledge has been largely overlooked thus far. Crop growth models (CGMs attempt to represent the impact of functional relationships between plant physiology and the environment in the formation of yield and similar output traits of interest. Thus, they can explain the impact of G×E and certain types of non-additive gene effects on the expressed phenotype. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC, a novel and powerful computational procedure, allows the incorporation of CGMs directly into the estimation of whole genome marker effects in WGP. Here we provide a proof of concept study for this novel approach and demonstrate its use with synthetic data sets. We show that this novel approach can be considerably more accurate than the benchmark WGP method GBLUP in predicting performance in environments represented in the estimation set as well as in previously unobserved environments for traits determined by non-additive gene effects. We conclude that this proof of concept demonstrates that using ABC for incorporating biological knowledge in the form of CGMs into WGP is a very promising and novel approach to improving prediction accuracy for some of the most challenging scenarios in plant breeding and applied genetics.

A bayesian approach to genome/linguistic relationships in native South Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Amorim, Carlos Eduardo Guerra; Bisso-Machado, Rafael; Ramallo, Virginia; Bortolini, Maria Cátira; Bonatto, Sandro Luis; Salzano, Francisco Mauro; Hünemeier, Tábita

2013-01-01

The relationship between the evolution of genes and languages has been studied for over three decades. These studies rely on the assumption that languages, as many other cultural traits, evolve in a gene-like manner, accumulating heritable diversity through time and being subjected to evolutionary mechanisms of change. In the present work we used genetic data to evaluate South American linguistic classifications. We compared discordant models of language classifications to the current Native American genome-wide variation using realistic demographic models analyzed under an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. Data on 381 STRs spread along the autosomes were gathered from the literature for populations representing the five main South Amerindian linguistic groups: Andean, Arawakan, Chibchan-Paezan, Macro-Jê, and Tupí. The results indicated a higher posterior probability for the classification proposed by J.H. Greenberg in 1987, although L. Campbell's 1997 classification cannot be ruled out. Based on Greenberg's classification, it was possible to date the time of Tupí-Arawakan divergence (2.8 kya), and the time of emergence of the structure between present day major language groups in South America (3.1 kya).

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2013-07-26

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faming Liang

Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

2013-01-01

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

Genomic selection in maritime pine.

Science.gov (United States)

Isik, Fikret; Bartholomé, Jérôme; Farjat, Alfredo; Chancerel, Emilie; Raffin, Annie; Sanchez, Leopoldo; Plomion, Christophe; Bouffier, Laurent

2016-01-01

A two-generation maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) breeding population (n=661) was genotyped using 2500 SNP markers. The extent of linkage disequilibrium and utility of genomic selection for growth and stem straightness improvement were investigated. The overall intra-chromosomal linkage disequilibrium was r(2)=0.01. Linkage disequilibrium corrected for genomic relationships derived from markers was smaller (rV(2)=0.006). Genomic BLUP, Bayesian ridge regression and Bayesian LASSO regression statistical models were used to obtain genomic estimated breeding values. Two validation methods (random sampling 50% of the population and 10% of the progeny generation as validation sets) were used with 100 replications. The average predictive ability across statistical models and validation methods was about 0.49 for stem sweep, and 0.47 and 0.43 for total height and tree diameter, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested that prior densities (variance explained by markers) had little or no discernible effect on posterior means (residual variance) in Bayesian prediction models. Sampling from the progeny generation for model validation increased the predictive ability of markers for tree diameter and stem sweep but not for total height. The results are promising despite low linkage disequilibrium and low marker coverage of the genome (∼1.39 markers/cM). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic prediction using subsampling

OpenAIRE

Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

2017-01-01

Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

Genome scan for nonadditive heterotic trait loci reveals mainly underdominant effects in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Science.gov (United States)

Laiba, Efrat; Glikaite, Ilana; Levy, Yael; Pasternak, Zohar; Fridman, Eyal

2016-04-01

The overdominant model of heterosis explains the superior phenotype of hybrids by synergistic allelic interaction within heterozygous loci. To map such genetic variation in yeast, we used a population doubling time dataset of Saccharomyces cerevisiae 16 × 16 diallel and searched for major contributing heterotic trait loci (HTL). Heterosis was observed for the majority of hybrids, as they surpassed their best parent growth rate. However, most of the local heterozygous loci identified by genome scan were surprisingly underdominant, i.e., reduced growth. We speculated that in these loci adverse effects on growth resulted from incompatible allelic interactions. To test this assumption, we eliminated these allelic interactions by creating hybrids with local hemizygosity for the underdominant HTLs, as well as for control random loci. Growth of hybrids was indeed elevated for most hemizygous to HTL genes but not for control genes, hence validating the results of our genome scan. Assessing the consequences of local heterozygosity by reciprocal hemizygosity and allele replacement assays revealed the influence of genetic background on the underdominant effects of HTLs. Overall, this genome-wide study on a multi-parental hybrid population provides a strong argument against single gene overdominance as a major contributor to heterosis, and favors the dominance complementation model.

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Boitard

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey, PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

Bayesian Nonparametric Hidden Markov Models with application to the analysis of copy-number-variation in mammalian genomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yau, C; Papaspiliopoulos, O; Roberts, G O; Holmes, C

2011-01-01

We consider the development of Bayesian Nonparametric methods for product partition models such as Hidden Markov Models and change point models. Our approach uses a Mixture of Dirichlet Process (MDP) model for the unknown sampling distribution (likelihood) for the observations arising in each state and a computationally efficient data augmentation scheme to aid inference. The method uses novel MCMC methodology which combines recent retrospective sampling methods with the use of slice sampler variables. The methodology is computationally efficient, both in terms of MCMC mixing properties, and robustness to the length of the time series being investigated. Moreover, the method is easy to implement requiring little or no user-interaction. We apply our methodology to the analysis of genomic copy number variation.

Estimating demographic parameters from large-scale population genomic data using Approximate Bayesian Computation

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Li Sen

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC approach has been used to infer demographic parameters for numerous species, including humans. However, most applications of ABC still use limited amounts of data, from a small number of loci, compared to the large amount of genome-wide population-genetic data which have become available in the last few years. Results We evaluated the performance of the ABC approach for three 'population divergence' models - similar to the 'isolation with migration' model - when the data consists of several hundred thousand SNPs typed for multiple individuals by simulating data from known demographic models. The ABC approach was used to infer demographic parameters of interest and we compared the inferred values to the true parameter values that was used to generate hypothetical "observed" data. For all three case models, the ABC approach inferred most demographic parameters quite well with narrow credible intervals, for example, population divergence times and past population sizes, but some parameters were more difficult to infer, such as population sizes at present and migration rates. We compared the ability of different summary statistics to infer demographic parameters, including haplotype and LD based statistics, and found that the accuracy of the parameter estimates can be improved by combining summary statistics that capture different parts of information in the data. Furthermore, our results suggest that poor choices of prior distributions can in some circumstances be detected using ABC. Finally, increasing the amount of data beyond some hundred loci will substantially improve the accuracy of many parameter estimates using ABC. Conclusions We conclude that the ABC approach can accommodate realistic genome-wide population genetic data, which may be difficult to analyze with full likelihood approaches, and that the ABC can provide accurate and precise inference of demographic parameters from

Bayesian prediction of microbial oxygen requirement [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1m6

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Dan B. Jensen

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Prediction of the optimal habitat conditions for a given bacterium, based on genome sequence alone would be of value for scientific as well as industrial purposes. One example of such a habitat adaptation is the requirement for oxygen. In spite of good genome data availability, there have been only a few prediction attempts of bacterial oxygen requirements, using genome sequences. Here, we describe a method for distinguishing aerobic, anaerobic and facultative anaerobic bacteria, based on genome sequence-derived input, using naive Bayesian inference. In contrast, other studies found in literature only demonstrate the ability to distinguish two classes at a time. Results: The results shown in the present study are as good as or better than comparable methods previously described in the scientific literature, with an arguably simpler method, when results are directly compared. This method further compares the performance of a single-step naive Bayesian prediction of the three included classifications, compared to a simple Bayesian network with two steps. A two-step network, distinguishing first respiring from non-respiring organisms, followed by the distinction of aerobe and facultative anaerobe organisms within the respiring group, is found to perform best. Conclusions: A simple naive Bayesian network based on the presence or absence of specific protein domains within a genome is an effective and easy way to predict bacterial habitat preferences, such as oxygen requirement.

Combined genome scans for body stature in 6,602 European twins

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perola, Markus; Sammalisto, Sampo; Hiekkalinna, Tero

2007-01-01

combined and related to the sequence positions using software developed by us, which is publicly available (https://apps.bioinfo.helsinki.fi/software/cartographer.aspx). Variance component linkage analysis was performed with age, sex, and country of origin as covariates. The covariate adjusted heritability....... Several cohorts contributed to the identified loci, suggesting an evolutionarily old genetic variant having effects on stature in European-based populations. To facilitate the genetic studies of stature we have also set up a website that lists all stature genome scans published and their most significant...

A scan statistic to extract causal gene clusters from case-control genome-wide rare CNV data

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Scherer Stephen W

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several statistical tests have been developed for analyzing genome-wide association data by incorporating gene pathway information in terms of gene sets. Using these methods, hundreds of gene sets are typically tested, and the tested gene sets often overlap. This overlapping greatly increases the probability of generating false positives, and the results obtained are difficult to interpret, particularly when many gene sets show statistical significance. Results We propose a flexible statistical framework to circumvent these problems. Inspired by spatial scan statistics for detecting clustering of disease occurrence in the field of epidemiology, we developed a scan statistic to extract disease-associated gene clusters from a whole gene pathway. Extracting one or a few significant gene clusters from a global pathway limits the overall false positive probability, which results in increased statistical power, and facilitates the interpretation of test results. In the present study, we applied our method to genome-wide association data for rare copy-number variations, which have been strongly implicated in common diseases. Application of our method to a simulated dataset demonstrated the high accuracy of this method in detecting disease-associated gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. Conclusions The scan statistic approach proposed here shows a high level of accuracy in detecting gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. This study has provided a sound statistical framework for analyzing genome-wide rare CNV data by incorporating topological information on the gene pathway.

Candidate genes revealed by a genome scan for mosquito resistance to a bacterial insecticide: sequence and gene expression variations

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David Jean-Philippe

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome scans are becoming an increasingly popular approach to study the genetic basis of adaptation and speciation, but on their own, they are often helpless at identifying the specific gene(s or mutation(s targeted by selection. This shortcoming is hopefully bound to disappear in the near future, thanks to the wealth of new genomic resources that are currently being developed for many species. In this article, we provide a foretaste of this exciting new era by conducting a genome scan in the mosquito Aedes aegypti with the aim to look for candidate genes involved in resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. israelensis (Bti insecticidal toxins. Results The genome of a Bti-resistant and a Bti-susceptible strains was surveyed using about 500 MITE-based molecular markers, and the loci showing the highest inter-strain genetic differentiation were sequenced and mapped on the Aedes aegypti genome sequence. Several good candidate genes for Bti-resistance were identified in the vicinity of these highly differentiated markers. Two of them, coding for a cadherin and a leucine aminopeptidase, were further examined at the sequence and gene expression levels. In the resistant strain, the cadherin gene displayed patterns of nucleotide polymorphisms consistent with the action of positive selection (e.g. an excess of high compared to intermediate frequency mutations, as well as a significant under-expression compared to the susceptible strain. Conclusion Both sequence and gene expression analyses agree to suggest a role for positive selection in the evolution of this cadherin gene in the resistant strain. However, it is unlikely that resistance to Bti is conferred by this gene alone, and further investigation will be needed to characterize other genes significantly associated with Bti resistance in Ae. aegypti. Beyond these results, this article illustrates how genome scans can build on the body of new genomic information (here, full

A genome scan for positive selection in thoroughbred horses.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Jingjing; Orr, Nick; Park, Stephen D; Katz, Lisa M; Sulimova, Galina; MacHugh, David E; Hill, Emmeline W

2009-06-02

Thoroughbred horses have been selected for exceptional racing performance resulting in system-wide structural and functional adaptations contributing to elite athletic phenotypes. Because selection has been recent and intense in a closed population that stems from a small number of founder animals Thoroughbreds represent a unique population within which to identify genomic contributions to exercise-related traits. Employing a population genetics-based hitchhiking mapping approach we performed a genome scan using 394 autosomal and X chromosome microsatellite loci and identified positively selected loci in the extreme tail-ends of the empirical distributions for (1) deviations from expected heterozygosity (Ewens-Watterson test) in Thoroughbred (n = 112) and (2) global differentiation among four geographically diverse horse populations (F(ST)). We found positively selected genomic regions in Thoroughbred enriched for phosphoinositide-mediated signalling (3.2-fold enrichment; PThoroughbred athletic phenotype. We report for the first time candidate athletic-performance genes within regions targeted by selection in Thoroughbred horses that are principally responsible for fatty acid oxidation, increased insulin sensitivity and muscle strength: ACSS1 (acyl-CoA synthetase short-chain family member 1), ACTA1 (actin, alpha 1, skeletal muscle), ACTN2 (actinin, alpha 2), ADHFE1 (alcohol dehydrogenase, iron containing, 1), MTFR1 (mitochondrial fission regulator 1), PDK4 (pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase, isozyme 4) and TNC (tenascin C). Understanding the genetic basis for exercise adaptation will be crucial for the identification of genes within the complex molecular networks underlying obesity and its consequential pathologies, such as type 2 diabetes. Therefore, we propose Thoroughbred as a novel in vivo large animal model for understanding molecular protection against metabolic disease.

Discovering Alzheimer Genetic Biomarkers Using Bayesian Networks

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Fayroz F. Sherif

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contribute most of the genetic variation to the human genome. SNPs associate with many complex and common diseases like Alzheimer’s disease (AD. Discovering SNP biomarkers at different loci can improve early diagnosis and treatment of these diseases. Bayesian network provides a comprehensible and modular framework for representing interactions between genes or single SNPs. Here, different Bayesian network structure learning algorithms have been applied in whole genome sequencing (WGS data for detecting the causal AD SNPs and gene-SNP interactions. We focused on polymorphisms in the top ten genes associated with AD and identified by genome-wide association (GWA studies. New SNP biomarkers were observed to be significantly associated with Alzheimer’s disease. These SNPs are rs7530069, rs113464261, rs114506298, rs73504429, rs7929589, rs76306710, and rs668134. The obtained results demonstrated the effectiveness of using BN for identifying AD causal SNPs with acceptable accuracy. The results guarantee that the SNP set detected by Markov blanket based methods has a strong association with AD disease and achieves better performance than both naïve Bayes and tree augmented naïve Bayes. Minimal augmented Markov blanket reaches accuracy of 66.13% and sensitivity of 88.87% versus 61.58% and 59.43% in naïve Bayes, respectively.

Genome-wide association scan for variants associated with early-onset prostate cancer.

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Ethan M Lange

Full Text Available Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer related mortality for men in the United States. There is strong empirical and epidemiological evidence supporting a stronger role of genetics in early-onset prostate cancer. We performed a genome-wide association scan for early-onset prostate cancer. Novel aspects of this study include the focus on early-onset disease (defined as men with prostate cancer diagnosed before age 56 years and use of publically available control genotype data from previous genome-wide association studies. We found genome-wide significant (p<5×10(-8 evidence for variants at 8q24 and 11p15 and strong supportive evidence for a number of previously reported loci. We found little evidence for individual or systematic inflated association findings resulting from using public controls, demonstrating the utility of using public control data in large-scale genetic association studies of common variants. Taken together, these results demonstrate the importance of established common genetic variants for early-onset prostate cancer and the power of including early-onset prostate cancer cases in genetic association studies.

AFLP genome scanning reveals divergent selection in natural populations of Liriodendron chinense (Magnoliaceae along a latitudinal transect

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Aihong eYang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Understanding adaptive genetic variation and its relation to environmental factors are important for understanding how plants adapt to climate change and for managing genetic resources. Genome scans for the loci exhibiting either notably high or low levels of population differentiation (outlier loci provide one means of identifying genomic regions possibly associated with convergent or divergent selection. In this study, we combined AFLP genome scan and environmental association analysis to test for signals of natural selection in natural populations of Liriodendron chinense (Chinese Tulip Tree; Magnoliaceae along a latitudinal transect. We genotyped 276 individuals from 11 populations of L. chinense using 987 AFLP markers. Two complementary methods (Dfdist and BayeScan and association analysis between AFLP loci and climate factors were applied to detect outlier loci. Our analyses recovered both neutral and potentially adaptive genetic differentiation among populations of L. chinense. We found moderate genetic diversity within populations and high genetic differentiation among populations with reduced genetic diversity towards the periphery of the species ranges. Nine AFLP marker loci showed evidence of being outliers for population differentiation for both detection methods. Of these, six were strongly associated with at least one climate factor. Temperature, precipitation and radiation were found to be three important factors influencing local adaptation of L. chinense. The outlier AFLP loci are likely not the target of natural selection, but the neighboring genes of these loci might be involved in local adaptation. Hence, these candidates should be validated by further studies.

Genome-wide scan of healthy human connectome discovers SPON1 gene variant influencing dementia severity

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Jahanshad, Neda; Rajagopalan, Priya; Hua, Xue; Hibar, Derrek P.; Nir, Talia M.; Toga, Arthur W.; Jack, Clifford R.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Green, Robert C.; Weiner, Michael W.; Medland, Sarah E.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Hansell, Narelle K.; McMahon, Katie L.; de Zubicaray, Greig I.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Wright, Margaret J.; Thompson, Paul M.; Weiner, Michael; Aisen, Paul; Weiner, Michael; Aisen, Paul; Petersen, Ronald; Jack, Clifford R.; Jagust, William; Trojanowski, John Q.; Toga, Arthur W.; Beckett, Laurel; Green, Robert C.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Morris, John; Liu, Enchi; Green, Robert C.; Montine, Tom; Petersen, Ronald; Aisen, Paul; Gamst, Anthony; Thomas, Ronald G.; Donohue, Michael; Walter, Sarah; Gessert, Devon; Sather, Tamie; Beckett, Laurel; Harvey, Danielle; Gamst, Anthony; Donohue, Michael; Kornak, John; Jack, Clifford R.; Dale, Anders; Bernstein, Matthew; Felmlee, Joel; Fox, Nick; Thompson, Paul; Schuff, Norbert; Alexander, Gene; DeCarli, Charles; Jagust, William; Bandy, Dan; Koeppe, Robert A.; Foster, Norm; Reiman, Eric M.; Chen, Kewei; Mathis, Chet; Morris, John; Cairns, Nigel J.; Taylor-Reinwald, Lisa; Trojanowki, J.Q.; Shaw, Les; Lee, Virginia M.Y.; Korecka, Magdalena; Toga, Arthur W.; Crawford, Karen; Neu, Scott; Saykin, Andrew J.; Foroud, Tatiana M.; Potkin, Steven; Shen, Li; Khachaturian, Zaven; Frank, Richard; Snyder, Peter J.; Molchan, Susan; Kaye, Jeffrey; Quinn, Joseph; Lind, Betty; Dolen, Sara; Schneider, Lon S.; Pawluczyk, Sonia; Spann, Bryan M.; Brewer, James; Vanderswag, Helen; Heidebrink, Judith L.; Lord, Joanne L.; Petersen, Ronald; Johnson, Kris; Doody, Rachelle S.; Villanueva-Meyer, Javier; Chowdhury, Munir; Stern, Yaakov; Honig, Lawrence S.; Bell, Karen L.; Morris, John C.; Ances, Beau; Carroll, Maria; Leon, Sue; Mintun, Mark A.; Schneider, Stacy; Marson, Daniel; Griffith, Randall; Clark, David; Grossman, Hillel; Mitsis, Effie; Romirowsky, Aliza; deToledo-Morrell, Leyla; Shah, Raj C.; Duara, Ranjan; Varon, Daniel; Roberts, Peggy; Albert, Marilyn; Onyike, Chiadi; Kielb, Stephanie; Rusinek, Henry; de Leon, Mony J.; Glodzik, Lidia; De Santi, Susan; Doraiswamy, P. Murali; Petrella, Jeffrey R.; Coleman, R. Edward; Arnold, Steven E.; Karlawish, Jason H.; Wolk, David; Smith, Charles D.; Jicha, Greg; Hardy, Peter; Lopez, Oscar L.; Oakley, MaryAnn; Simpson, Donna M.; Porsteinsson, Anton P.; Goldstein, Bonnie S.; Martin, Kim; Makino, Kelly M.; Ismail, M. Saleem; Brand, Connie; Mulnard, Ruth A.; Thai, Gaby; Mc-Adams-Ortiz, Catherine; Womack, Kyle; Mathews, Dana; Quiceno, Mary; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; King, Richard; Weiner, Myron; Martin-Cook, Kristen; DeVous, Michael; Levey, Allan I.; Lah, James J.; Cellar, Janet S.; Burns, Jeffrey M.; Anderson, Heather S.; Swerdlow, Russell H.; Apostolova, Liana; Lu, Po H.; Bartzokis, George; Silverman, Daniel H.S.; Graff-Radford, Neill R.; Parfitt, Francine; Johnson, Heather; Farlow, Martin R.; Hake, Ann Marie; Matthews, Brandy R.; Herring, Scott; van Dyck, Christopher H.; Carson, Richard E.; MacAvoy, Martha G.; Chertkow, Howard; Bergman, Howard; Hosein, Chris; Black, Sandra; Stefanovic, Bojana; Caldwell, Curtis; Hsiung, Ging-Yuek Robin; Feldman, Howard; Mudge, Benita; Assaly, Michele; Kertesz, Andrew; Rogers, John; Trost, Dick; Bernick, Charles; Munic, Donna; Kerwin, Diana; Mesulam, Marek-Marsel; Lipowski, Kristina; Wu, Chuang-Kuo; Johnson, Nancy; Sadowsky, Carl; Martinez, Walter; Villena, Teresa; Turner, Raymond Scott; Johnson, Kathleen; Reynolds, Brigid; Sperling, Reisa A.; Johnson, Keith A.; Marshall, Gad; Frey, Meghan; Yesavage, Jerome; Taylor, Joy L.; Lane, Barton; Rosen, Allyson; Tinklenberg, Jared; Sabbagh, Marwan; Belden, Christine; Jacobson, Sandra; Kowall, Neil; Killiany, Ronald; Budson, Andrew E.; Norbash, Alexander; Johnson, Patricia Lynn; Obisesan, Thomas O.; Wolday, Saba; Bwayo, Salome K.; Lerner, Alan; Hudson, Leon; Ogrocki, Paula; Fletcher, Evan; Carmichael, Owen; Olichney, John; DeCarli, Charles; Kittur, Smita; Borrie, Michael; Lee, T.-Y.; Bartha, Rob; Johnson, Sterling; Asthana, Sanjay; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Potkin, Steven G.; Preda, Adrian; Nguyen, Dana; Tariot, Pierre; Fleisher, Adam; Reeder, Stephanie; Bates, Vernice; Capote, Horacio; Rainka, Michelle; Scharre, Douglas W.; Kataki, Maria; Zimmerman, Earl A.; Celmins, Dzintra; Brown, Alice D.; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Blank, Karen; Anderson, Karen; Saykin, Andrew J.; Santulli, Robert B.; Schwartz, Eben S.; Sink, Kaycee M.; Williamson, Jeff D.; Garg, Pradeep; Watkins, Franklin; Ott, Brian R.; Querfurth, Henry; Tremont, Geoffrey; Salloway, Stephen; Malloy, Paul; Correia, Stephen; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Mintzer, Jacobo; Longmire, Crystal Flynn; Spicer, Kenneth; Finger, Elizabeth; Rachinsky, Irina; Rogers, John; Kertesz, Andrew; Drost, Dick

2013-01-01

Aberrant connectivity is implicated in many neurological and psychiatric disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease and schizophrenia. However, other than a few disease-associated candidate genes, we know little about the degree to which genetics play a role in the brain networks; we know even less about specific genes that influence brain connections. Twin and family-based studies can generate estimates of overall genetic influences on a trait, but genome-wide association scans (GWASs) can screen the genome for specific variants influencing the brain or risk for disease. To identify the heritability of various brain connections, we scanned healthy young adult twins with high-field, high-angular resolution diffusion MRI. We adapted GWASs to screen the brain’s connectivity pattern, allowing us to discover genetic variants that affect the human brain’s wiring. The association of connectivity with the SPON1 variant at rs2618516 on chromosome 11 (11p15.2) reached connectome-wide, genome-wide significance after stringent statistical corrections were enforced, and it was replicated in an independent subsample. rs2618516 was shown to affect brain structure in an elderly population with varying degrees of dementia. Older people who carried the connectivity variant had significantly milder clinical dementia scores and lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease. As a posthoc analysis, we conducted GWASs on several organizational and topological network measures derived from the matrices to discover variants in and around genes associated with autism (MACROD2), development (NEDD4), and mental retardation (UBE2A) significantly associated with connectivity. Connectome-wide, genome-wide screening offers substantial promise to discover genes affecting brain connectivity and risk for brain diseases. PMID:23471985

CGBayesNets: conditional Gaussian Bayesian network learning and inference with mixed discrete and continuous data.

Science.gov (United States)

McGeachie, Michael J; Chang, Hsun-Hsien; Weiss, Scott T

2014-06-01

Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com.

Quantitative linkage genome scan for atopy in a large collection of Caucasian families

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Webb, BT; van den Oord, E; Akkari, A

2007-01-01

adulthood, asthma is frequently associated also with quantitative measures of atopy. Genome wide quantitative multipoint linkage analysis was conducted for serum IgE levels and percentage of positive skin prick test (SPT(per)) using three large groups of families originally ascertained for asthma....... In this report, 438 and 429 asthma families were informative for linkage using IgE and SPT(per) which represents 690 independent families. Suggestive linkage (LOD >/= 2) was found on chromosomes 1, 3, and 8q with maximum LODs of 2.34 (IgE), 2.03 (SPT(per)), and 2.25 (IgE) near markers D1S1653, D3S2322-D3S1764...... represents one of the biggest genome scans so far reported for asthma related phenotypes. This study also demonstrates the utility of increased sample sizes and quantitative phenotypes in linkage analysis of complex disorders....

A bi-dimensional genome scan for prolificacy traits in pigs shows the existence of multiple epistatic QTL

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Bidanel Jean P

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Prolificacy is the most important trait influencing the reproductive efficiency of pig production systems. The low heritability and sex-limited expression of prolificacy have hindered to some extent the improvement of this trait through artificial selection. Moreover, the relative contributions of additive, dominant and epistatic QTL to the genetic variance of pig prolificacy remain to be defined. In this work, we have undertaken this issue by performing one-dimensional and bi-dimensional genome scans for number of piglets born alive (NBA and total number of piglets born (TNB in a three generation Iberian by Meishan F2 intercross. Results The one-dimensional genome scan for NBA and TNB revealed the existence of two genome-wide highly significant QTL located on SSC13 (P SSC17 (P P P P P Conclusions The complex inheritance of prolificacy traits in pigs has been evidenced by identifying multiple additive (SSC13 and SSC17, dominant and epistatic QTL in an Iberian × Meishan F2 intercross. Our results demonstrate that a significant fraction of the phenotypic variance of swine prolificacy traits can be attributed to first-order gene-by-gene interactions emphasizing that the phenotypic effects of alleles might be strongly modulated by the genetic background where they segregate.

A genome scan for positive selection in thoroughbred horses.

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Jingjing Gu

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Thoroughbred horses have been selected for exceptional racing performance resulting in system-wide structural and functional adaptations contributing to elite athletic phenotypes. Because selection has been recent and intense in a closed population that stems from a small number of founder animals Thoroughbreds represent a unique population within which to identify genomic contributions to exercise-related traits. Employing a population genetics-based hitchhiking mapping approach we performed a genome scan using 394 autosomal and X chromosome microsatellite loci and identified positively selected loci in the extreme tail-ends of the empirical distributions for (1 deviations from expected heterozygosity (Ewens-Watterson test in Thoroughbred (n = 112 and (2 global differentiation among four geographically diverse horse populations (F(ST. We found positively selected genomic regions in Thoroughbred enriched for phosphoinositide-mediated signalling (3.2-fold enrichment; P<0.01, insulin receptor signalling (5.0-fold enrichment; P<0.01 and lipid transport (2.2-fold enrichment; P<0.05 genes. We found a significant overrepresentation of sarcoglycan complex (11.1-fold enrichment; P<0.05 and focal adhesion pathway (1.9-fold enrichment; P<0.01 genes highlighting the role for muscle strength and integrity in the Thoroughbred athletic phenotype. We report for the first time candidate athletic-performance genes within regions targeted by selection in Thoroughbred horses that are principally responsible for fatty acid oxidation, increased insulin sensitivity and muscle strength: ACSS1 (acyl-CoA synthetase short-chain family member 1, ACTA1 (actin, alpha 1, skeletal muscle, ACTN2 (actinin, alpha 2, ADHFE1 (alcohol dehydrogenase, iron containing, 1, MTFR1 (mitochondrial fission regulator 1, PDK4 (pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase, isozyme 4 and TNC (tenascin C. Understanding the genetic basis for exercise adaptation will be crucial for the identification of genes

Whole genome PCR scanning reveals the syntenic genome structure of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae strains in the O1/O139 population.

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Bo Pang

Full Text Available Vibrio cholerae is commonly found in estuarine water systems. Toxigenic O1 and O139 V. cholerae strains have caused cholera epidemics and pandemics, whereas the nontoxigenic strains within these serogroups only occasionally lead to disease. To understand the differences in the genome and clonality between the toxigenic and nontoxigenic strains of V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139, we employed a whole genome PCR scanning (WGPScanning method, an rrn operon-mediated fragment rearrangement analysis and comparative genomic hybridization (CGH to analyze the genome structure of different strains. WGPScanning in conjunction with CGH revealed that the genomic contents of the toxigenic strains were conservative, except for a few indels located mainly in mobile elements. Minor nucleotide variation in orthologous genes appeared to be the major difference between the toxigenic strains. rrn operon-mediated rearrangements were infrequent in El Tor toxigenic strains tested using I-CeuI digested pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE analysis and PCR analysis based on flanking sequence of rrn operons. Using these methods, we found that the genomic structures of toxigenic El Tor and O139 strains were syntenic. The nontoxigenic strains exhibited more extensive sequence variations, but toxin coregulated pilus positive (TCP+ strains had a similar structure. TCP+ nontoxigenic strains could be subdivided into multiple lineages according to the TCP type, suggesting the existence of complex intermediates in the evolution of toxigenic strains. The data indicate that toxigenic O1 El Tor and O139 strains were derived from a single lineage of intermediates from complex clones in the environment. The nontoxigenic strains with non-El Tor type TCP may yet evolve into new epidemic clones after attaining toxigenic attributes.

Factors affecting GEBV accuracy with single-step Bayesian models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lei; Mrode, Raphael; Zhang, Shengli; Zhang, Qin; Li, Bugao; Liu, Jian-Feng

2018-01-01

A single-step approach to obtain genomic prediction was first proposed in 2009. Many studies have investigated the components of GEBV accuracy in genomic selection. However, it is still unclear how the population structure and the relationships between training and validation populations influence GEBV accuracy in terms of single-step analysis. Here, we explored the components of GEBV accuracy in single-step Bayesian analysis with a simulation study. Three scenarios with various numbers of QTL (5, 50, and 500) were simulated. Three models were implemented to analyze the simulated data: single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP; SSGBLUP), single-step BayesA (SS-BayesA), and single-step BayesB (SS-BayesB). According to our results, GEBV accuracy was influenced by the relationships between the training and validation populations more significantly for ungenotyped animals than for genotyped animals. SS-BayesA/BayesB showed an obvious advantage over SSGBLUP with the scenarios of 5 and 50 QTL. SS-BayesB model obtained the lowest accuracy with the 500 QTL in the simulation. SS-BayesA model was the most efficient and robust considering all QTL scenarios. Generally, both the relationships between training and validation populations and LD between markers and QTL contributed to GEBV accuracy in the single-step analysis, and the advantages of single-step Bayesian models were more apparent when the trait is controlled by fewer QTL.

Correction for Measurement Error from Genotyping-by-Sequencing in Genomic Variance and Genomic Prediction Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ashraf, Bilal; Janss, Luc; Jensen, Just

sample). The GBSeq data can be used directly in genomic models in the form of individual SNP allele-frequency estimates (e.g., reference reads/total reads per polymorphic site per individual), but is subject to measurement error due to the low sequencing depth per individual. Due to technical reasons....... In the current work we show how the correction for measurement error in GBSeq can also be applied in whole genome genomic variance and genomic prediction models. Bayesian whole-genome random regression models are proposed to allow implementation of large-scale SNP-based models with a per-SNP correction...... for measurement error. We show correct retrieval of genomic explained variance, and improved genomic prediction when accounting for the measurement error in GBSeq data...

Does parental expressed emotion moderate genetic effects in ADHD? An exploration using a genome wide association scan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sonuga-Barke, E.; Lasky-Su, J.; Neale, B.; Oades, R.D.; Chen, W.; Franke, B.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Banaschewski, T.; Ebstein, R.; Gill, M.; Anney, R.J.; Miranda, A.; Mulas, F.; Roeyers, H.; Rothenberger, A.; Sergeant, J.A.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Thompson, M.; Asherson, P.; Faraone, S.V.

2008-01-01

Studies of gene x environment (G x E) interaction in ADHD have previously focused on known risk genes for ADHD and environmentally mediated biological risk. Here we use G x E analysis in the context of a genome-wide association scan to identify novel genes whose effects on ADHD symptoms and comorbid

Does parental expressed emotion moderate genetic effects in ADHD? An exploration using a genome wide association scan.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sonuga-Barke, E.J.S.; Lasky-Su, J.; Neale, B.; Oades, R.D.; Chen, W.; Franke, B.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Banaschewski, T.; Ebstein, R.P.; Gill, M.; Anney, R.; Miranda, A.; Mulas, F.; Roeyers, H.; Rothenberger, A.; Sergeant, J.A.; Steinhausen, H.C.; Thompson, M.; Asherson, P.; Faraone, S.V.

2008-01-01

Studies of gene x environment (G x E) interaction in ADHD have previously focused on known risk genes for ADHD and environmentally mediated biological risk. Here we use G x E analysis in the context of a genome-wide association scan to identify novel genes whose effects on ADHD symptoms and comorbid

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

KAUST Repository

Cheng, Yichen

2014-02-01

Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

A two step Bayesian approach for genomic prediction of breeding values.

Science.gov (United States)

Shariati, Mohammad M; Sørensen, Peter; Janss, Luc

2012-05-21

In genomic models that assign an individual variance to each marker, the contribution of one marker to the posterior distribution of the marker variance is only one degree of freedom (df), which introduces many variance parameters with only little information per variance parameter. A better alternative could be to form clusters of markers with similar effects where markers in a cluster have a common variance. Therefore, the influence of each marker group of size p on the posterior distribution of the marker variances will be p df. The simulated data from the 15th QTL-MAS workshop were analyzed such that SNP markers were ranked based on their effects and markers with similar estimated effects were grouped together. In step 1, all markers with minor allele frequency more than 0.01 were included in a SNP-BLUP prediction model. In step 2, markers were ranked based on their estimated variance on the trait in step 1 and each 150 markers were assigned to one group with a common variance. In further analyses, subsets of 1500 and 450 markers with largest effects in step 2 were kept in the prediction model. Grouping markers outperformed SNP-BLUP model in terms of accuracy of predicted breeding values. However, the accuracies of predicted breeding values were lower than Bayesian methods with marker specific variances. Grouping markers is less flexible than allowing each marker to have a specific marker variance but, by grouping, the power to estimate marker variances increases. A prior knowledge of the genetic architecture of the trait is necessary for clustering markers and appropriate prior parameterization.

BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

2016-01-01

The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Müller, Peter

2015-01-01

As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

PWMScan: a fast tool for scanning entire genomes with a position-specific weight matrix.

Science.gov (United States)

Ambrosini, Giovanna; Groux, Romain; Bucher, Philipp

2018-03-05

Transcription factors (TFs) regulate gene expression by binding to specific short DNA sequences of 5 to 20-bp to regulate the rate of transcription of genetic information from DNA to messenger RNA. We present PWMScan, a fast web-based tool to scan server-resident genomes for matches to a user-supplied PWM or TF binding site model from a public database. The web server and source code are available at http://ccg.vital-it.ch/pwmscan and https://sourceforge.net/projects/pwmscan, respectively. giovanna.ambrosini@epfl.ch. SUPPLEMENTARY DATA ARE AVAILABLE AT BIOINFORMATICS ONLINE.

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

A Bayesian deconvolution strategy for immunoprecipitation-based DNA methylome analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Down, Thomas A.; Rakyan, Vardhman K.; Turner, Daniel J.; Flicek, Paul; Li, Heng; Kulesha, Eugene; Gräf, Stefan; Johnson, Nathan; Herrero, Javier; Tomazou, Eleni M.; Thorne, Natalie P.; Bäckdahl, Liselotte; Herberth, Marlis; Howe, Kevin L.; Jackson, David K.; Miretti, Marcos M.; Marioni, John C.; Birney, Ewan; Hubbard, Tim J. P.; Durbin, Richard; Tavaré, Simon; Beck, Stephan

2009-01-01

DNA methylation is an indispensible epigenetic modification of mammalian genomes. Consequently there is great interest in strategies for genome-wide/whole-genome DNA methylation analysis, and immunoprecipitation-based methods have proven to be a powerful option. Such methods are rapidly shifting the bottleneck from data generation to data analysis, necessitating the development of better analytical tools. Until now, a major analytical difficulty associated with immunoprecipitation-based DNA methylation profiling has been the inability to estimate absolute methylation levels. Here we report the development of a novel cross-platform algorithm – Bayesian Tool for Methylation Analysis (Batman) – for analyzing Methylated DNA Immunoprecipitation (MeDIP) profiles generated using arrays (MeDIP-chip) or next-generation sequencing (MeDIP-seq). The latter is an approach we have developed to elucidate the first high-resolution whole-genome DNA methylation profile (DNA methylome) of any mammalian genome. MeDIP-seq/MeDIP-chip combined with Batman represent robust, quantitative, and cost-effective functional genomic strategies for elucidating the function of DNA methylation. PMID:18612301

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Hyun

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

Genome scans on experimentally evolved populations reveal candidate regions for adaptation to plant resistance in the potato cyst nematode Globodera pallida.

Science.gov (United States)

Eoche-Bosy, D; Gautier, M; Esquibet, M; Legeai, F; Bretaudeau, A; Bouchez, O; Fournet, S; Grenier, E; Montarry, J

2017-09-01

Improving resistance durability involves to be able to predict the adaptation speed of pathogen populations. Identifying the genetic bases of pathogen adaptation to plant resistances is a useful step to better understand and anticipate this phenomenon. Globodera pallida is a major pest of potato crop for which a resistance QTL, GpaV vrn , has been identified in Solanum vernei. However, its durability is threatened as G. pallida populations are able to adapt to the resistance in few generations. The aim of this study was to investigate the genomic regions involved in the resistance breakdown by coupling experimental evolution and high-density genome scan. We performed a whole-genome resequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) belonging to G. pallida lineages derived from two independent populations having experimentally evolved on susceptible and resistant potato cultivars. About 1.6 million SNPs were used to perform the genome scan using a recent model testing for adaptive differentiation and association to population-specific covariables. We identified 275 outliers and 31 of them, which also showed a significant reduction in diversity in adapted lineages, were investigated for their genic environment. Some candidate genomic regions contained genes putatively encoding effectors and were enriched in SPRYSECs, known in cyst nematodes to be involved in pathogenicity and in (a)virulence. Validated candidate SNPs will provide a useful molecular tool to follow frequencies of virulence alleles in natural G. pallida populations and define efficient strategies of use of potato resistances maximizing their durability. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

Impact of Relationships between Test and Reference Animals and between Reference Animals on Reliability of Genomic Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Xiaoping; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Sun, Dongxiao

This study investigated reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to relationship between test and reference animals and between animals within the reference population. Different reference populations were generated from EuroGenomics data and 1288 Nordic Holstein bulls...... as a common test population. A GBLUP model and a Bayesian mixture model were applied to predict Genomic breeding values for bulls in the test data. Result showed that a closer relationship between test and reference animals led to a higher reliability, while a closer relationship between reference animal...... resulted in a lower reliability. Therefore, the design of reference population is important for improving the reliability of genomic prediction. With regard to model, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to slightly a higher reliability of genomic prediction than the GBLUP model...

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

A Bayesian antedependence model for whole genome prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Wenzhao; Tempelman, Robert J

2012-04-01

Hierarchical mixed effects models have been demonstrated to be powerful for predicting genomic merit of livestock and plants, on the basis of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker panels, and their use is being increasingly advocated for genomic predictions in human health. Two particularly popular approaches, labeled BayesA and BayesB, are based on specifying all SNP-associated effects to be independent of each other. BayesB extends BayesA by allowing a large proportion of SNP markers to be associated with null effects. We further extend these two models to specify SNP effects as being spatially correlated due to the chromosomally proximal effects of causal variants. These two models, that we respectively dub as ante-BayesA and ante-BayesB, are based on a first-order nonstationary antedependence specification between SNP effects. In a simulation study involving 20 replicate data sets, each analyzed at six different SNP marker densities with average LD levels ranging from r(2) = 0.15 to 0.31, the antedependence methods had significantly (P 0. 24) with differences exceeding 3%. A cross-validation study was also conducted on the heterogeneous stock mice data resource (http://mus.well.ox.ac.uk/mouse/HS/) using 6-week body weights as the phenotype. The antedependence methods increased cross-validation prediction accuracies by up to 3.6% compared to their classical counterparts (P benchmark data sets and demonstrated that the antedependence methods were more accurate than their classical counterparts for genomic predictions, even for individuals several generations beyond the training data.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Does parental expressed emotion moderate genetic effects in ADHD? An exploration using a genome wide association scan

OpenAIRE

Sonuga-Barke, E.; Lasky-Su, J.; Neale, B.; Oades, R.D.; Chen, W.; Franke, B.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Banaschewski, T.; Ebstein, R.; Gill, M.; Anney, R.J.; Miranda, A.; Mulas, F.; Roeyers, H.; Rothenberger, A.

2008-01-01

Studies of gene x environment (G x E) interaction in ADHD have previously focused on known risk genes for ADHD and environmentally mediated biological risk. Here we use G x E analysis in the context of a genome-wide association scan to identify novel genes whose effects on ADHD symptoms and comorbid conduct disorder are moderated by high maternal expressed emotion (EE). SNPs (600,000) were genotyped in 958 ADHD proband-parent trios. After applying data cleaning procedures we examined 429,981 ...

Genome-wide scan for visceral leishmaniasis in mixed-breed dogs identifies candidate genes involved in T helper cells and macrophage signaling

Science.gov (United States)

We conducted a genome-wide scan for visceral leishmaniasis in mixed-breed dogs from a highly endemic area in Brazil using 149,648 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers genotyped in 20 cases and 28 controls. Using a mixed model approach, we found two candidate loci on canine autosomes 1 and 2....

Genome-Wide Association Studies and Comparison of Models and Cross-Validation Strategies for Genomic Prediction of Quality Traits in Advanced Winter Wheat Breeding Lines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter S. Kristensen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the this study was to identify SNP markers associated with five important wheat quality traits (grain protein content, Zeleny sedimentation, test weight, thousand-kernel weight, and falling number, and to investigate the predictive abilities of GBLUP and Bayesian Power Lasso models for genomic prediction of these traits. In total, 635 winter wheat lines from two breeding cycles in the Danish plant breeding company Nordic Seed A/S were phenotyped for the quality traits and genotyped for 10,802 SNPs. GWAS were performed using single marker regression and Bayesian Power Lasso models. SNPs with large effects on Zeleny sedimentation were found on chromosome 1B, 1D, and 5D. However, GWAS failed to identify single SNPs with significant effects on the other traits, indicating that these traits were controlled by many QTL with small effects. The predictive abilities of the models for genomic prediction were studied using different cross-validation strategies. Leave-One-Out cross-validations resulted in correlations between observed phenotypes corrected for fixed effects and genomic estimated breeding values of 0.50 for grain protein content, 0.66 for thousand-kernel weight, 0.70 for falling number, 0.71 for test weight, and 0.79 for Zeleny sedimentation. Alternative cross-validations showed that the genetic relationship between lines in training and validation sets had a bigger impact on predictive abilities than the number of lines included in the training set. Using Bayesian Power Lasso instead of GBLUP models, gave similar or slightly higher predictive abilities. Genomic prediction based on all SNPs was more effective than prediction based on few associated SNPs.

Estimation of (co)variances for genomic regions of flexible sizes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars P; Janss, Luc; Madsen, Per

2012-01-01

was used. There was a clear difference in the region-wise patterns of genomic correlation among combinations of traits, with distinctive peaks indicating the presence of pleiotropic QTL. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that it is possible to estimate, genome-wide and region-wise genomic (co)variances......BACKGROUND: Multi-trait genomic models in a Bayesian context can be used to estimate genomic (co)variances, either for a complete genome or for genomic regions (e.g. per chromosome) for the purpose of multi-trait genomic selection or to gain further insight into the genomic architecture of related...... with a common prior distribution for the marker allele substitution effects and estimation of the hyperparameters in this prior distribution from the progeny means data. From the Markov chain Monte Carlo samples of the allele substitution effects, genomic (co)variances were calculated on a whole-genome level...

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

A genome-wide scan in families with maturity-onset diabetes of the young

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frayling, Timothy M; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Chevre, Jean Claude

2003-01-01

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is a heterogeneous single gene disorder characterized by non-insulin-dependent diabetes, an early onset and autosomal dominant inheritance. Mutations in six genes have been shown to cause MODY. Approximately 15-20% of families fitting MODY criteria do...... not have mutations in any of the known genes. These families provide a rich resource for the identification of new MODY genes. This will potentially enable further dissection of clinical heterogeneity and bring new insights into mechanisms of beta-cell dysfunction. To facilitate the identification of novel...... MODY loci, we combined the results from three genome-wide scans on a total of 23 families fitting MODY criteria. We used both a strict parametric model of inheritance with heterogeneity and a model-free analysis. We did not identify any single novel locus but provided putative evidence for linkage...

Genome scan for linkage to Gilles de la Tourette syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barr, C.L.; Livingston, J.; Williamson, R. [and others

1994-09-01

Gilles de la Tourette Syndrome (TS) is a familial, neuropsychiatric disorder characterized by chronic, intermittent motor and vocal tics. In addition to tics, affected individuals frequently display symptoms such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and/or obsessive compulsive disorder. Genetic analyses of family data have suggested that susceptibility to the disorder is most likely due to a single genetic locus with a dominant mode of transmission and reduced penetrance. In the search for genetic linkage for TS, we have collected well-characterized pedigrees with multiple affected individuals on whom extensive diagnostic evaluations have been done. The first stage of our study is to scan the genome systematically using a panel of uniformly spaced (10 to 20 cM), highly polymorphic, microsatellite markers on 5 families segregating TS. To date, 290 markers have been typed and 3,660 non-overlapping cM of the genome have been excluded for possible linkage under the assumption of genetic homogeneity. Because of the possibility of locus heterogeneity overall summed exclusion is not considered tantamount to absolute exclusion of a disease locus in that region. The results from each family are carefully evaluated and a positive lod score in a single family is followed up by typing closely linked markers. Linkage to TS was examined by two-point analysis using the following genetic model: single autosomal dominant gene with gene frequency .003 and maximum penetrance of .99. An age-of-onset correction is included using a linear function increasing from age 2 years to 21 years. A small rate of phenocopies is also incorporated into the model. Only individuals with TS or CMT according to DSM III-R criteria were regarded as affected for the purposes of this summary. Additional markers are being tested to provide coverage at 5 cM intervals. Moreover, we are currently analyzing the data non-parametrically using the Affected-Pedigree-Member Method of linkage analysis.

The effect of using genealogy-based haplotypes for genomic prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L; Su, Guosheng; Lund, Mogens S; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt

2013-03-06

Genomic prediction uses two sources of information: linkage disequilibrium between markers and quantitative trait loci, and additive genetic relationships between individuals. One way to increase the accuracy of genomic prediction is to capture more linkage disequilibrium by regression on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (π) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect, i.e. a Bayesian mixture method. About 7.5 times more covariate effects were estimated when fitting haplotypes based on local genealogical trees compared to fitting individuals markers. Genealogy-based haplotype clustering slightly increased the accuracy of genomic prediction and, in some cases, decreased the bias of prediction. With the Bayesian method, accuracy of prediction was less sensitive to parameter π when fitting haplotypes compared to fitting markers. Use of haplotypes based on genealogy can slightly increase the accuracy of genomic prediction. Improved methods to cluster the haplotypes constructed from local genealogy could lead to additional gains in accuracy.

Viral RNA polymerase scanning and the gymnastics of Sendai virus RNA synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolakofsky, Daniel; Le Mercier, Philippe; Iseni, Frederic; Garcin, Dominique

2004-01-01

mRNA synthesis from nonsegmented negative-strand RNA virus (NNV) genomes is unique in that the genome RNA is embedded in an N protein assembly (the nucleocapsid) and the viral RNA polymerase does not dissociate from the template after release of each mRNA, but rather scans the genome RNA for the next gene-start site. A revised model for NNV RNA synthesis is presented, in which RNA polymerase scanning plays a prominent role. Polymerase scanning of the template is known to occur as the viral transcriptase negotiates gene junctions without falling off the template

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

GWAS and Genomic Prediction Based on Markers of SNP-CHIPS and Sequence Data in Cattle Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Xiaoping

This thesis investigated the methods and models for genome wide association study and genomic prediction. The main conclusions are: 1) The power of QTL detection can be increased by increasing marker densities, and the Bayesian variable selection model together with the analysis of the QTL intens...

Prospects and Potential Uses of Genomic Prediction of Key Performance Traits in Tetraploid Potato

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Benjamin Stich

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Genomic prediction is a routine tool in breeding programs of most major animal and plant species. However, its usefulness for potato breeding has not yet been evaluated in detail. The objectives of this study were to (i examine the prospects of genomic prediction of key performance traits in a diversity panel of tetraploid potato modeling additive, dominance, and epistatic effects, (ii investigate the effects of size and make up of training set, number of test environments and molecular markers on prediction accuracy, and (iii assess the effect of including markers from candidate genes on the prediction accuracy. With genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP, BayesA, BayesCπ, and Bayesian LASSO, four different prediction methods were used for genomic prediction of relative area under disease progress curve after a Phytophthora infestans infection, plant maturity, maturity corrected resistance, tuber starch content, tuber starch yield (TSY, and tuber yield (TY of 184 tetraploid potato clones or subsets thereof genotyped with the SolCAP 8.3k SNP array. The cross-validated prediction accuracies with GBLUP and the three Bayesian approaches for the six evaluated traits ranged from about 0.5 to about 0.8. For traits with a high expected genetic complexity, such as TSY and TY, we observed an 8% higher prediction accuracy using a model with additive and dominance effects compared with a model with additive effects only. Our results suggest that for oligogenic traits in general and when diagnostic markers are available in particular, the use of Bayesian methods for genomic prediction is highly recommended and that the diagnostic markers should be modeled as fixed effects. The evaluation of the relative performance of genomic prediction vs. phenotypic selection indicated that the former is superior, assuming cycle lengths and selection intensities that are possible to realize in commercial potato breeding programs.

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

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Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological

Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

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Quackenbush John

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results. Results Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data. Conclusion The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

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Parameswaran Ramachandran

Full Text Available Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

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Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Application of Restriction Landmark Genome Scanning Method for Surveillance of Non-Mendelian Inheritance in F1 Hybrids

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Tomoko Takamiya

2009-01-01

Full Text Available We analyzed inheritance of DNA methylation in reciprocal F1 hybrids (subsp. japonica cv. Nipponbare × subsp. indica cv. Kasalath of rice (Oryza sativa L. using restriction landmark genome scanning (RLGS, and detected differing RLGS spots between the parents and reciprocal F1 hybrids. MspI/HpaII restriction sites in the DNA from these different spots were suspected to be heterozygously methylated in the Nipponbare parent. These spots segregated in F1 plants, but did not segregate in selfed progeny of Nipponbare, showing non-Mendelian inheritance of the methylation status. As a result of RT-PCR and sequencing, a specific allele of the gene nearest to the methylated sites was expressed in reciprocal F1 plants, showing evidence of biased allelic expression. These results show the applicability of RLGS for scanning of non-Mendelian inheritance of DNA methylation and biased allelic expression.

The complete mitochondrial genomes of five Eimeria species infecting domestic rabbits.

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Liu, Guo-Hua; Tian, Si-Qin; Cui, Ping; Fang, Su-Fang; Wang, Chun-Ren; Zhu, Xing-Quan

2015-12-01

Rabbit coccidiosis caused by members of the genus Eimeria can cause enormous economic impact worldwide, but the genetics, epidemiology and biology of these parasites remain poorly understood. In the present study, we sequenced and annotated the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of five Eimeria species that commonly infect the domestic rabbits. The complete mt genomes of Eimeria intestinalis, Eimeria flavescens, Eimeria media, Eimeria vejdovskyi and Eimeria irresidua were 6261bp, 6258bp, 6168bp, 6254bp, 6259bp in length, respectively. All of the mt genomes consist of 3 genes for proteins (cytb, cox1, and cox3), 14 gene fragments for the large subunit (LSU) rRNA and 11 gene fragments for the small subunit (SSU) rRNA, but no transfer RNA (tRNA) genes. The gene order of the mt genomes is similar to that of Plasmodium, but distinct from Haemosporida and Theileria. Phylogenetic analyses based on full nucleotide sequences using Bayesian analysis revealed that the monophyly of the Eimeria of rabbits was strongly statistically supported with a Bayesian posterior probabilities. These data provide novel mtDNA markers for studying the population genetics and molecular epidemiology of the Eimeria species, and should have implications for the molecular diagnosis, prevention and control of coccidiosis in rabbits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

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Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Population genomic scans suggest novel genes underlie convergent flowering time evolution in the introduced range of Arabidopsis thaliana.

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Gould, Billie A; Stinchcombe, John R

2017-01-01

A long-standing question in evolutionary biology is whether the evolution of convergent phenotypes results from selection on the same heritable genetic components. Using whole-genome sequencing and genome scans, we tested whether the evolution of parallel longitudinal flowering time clines in the native and introduced ranges of Arabidopsis thaliana has a similar genetic basis. We found that common variants of large effect on flowering time in the native range do not appear to have been under recent strong selection in the introduced range. We identified a set of 38 new candidate genes that are putatively linked to the evolution of flowering time. A high degree of conditional neutrality of flowering time variants between the native and introduced range may preclude parallel evolution at the level of genes. Overall, neither gene pleiotropy nor available standing genetic variation appears to have restricted the evolution of flowering time to high-frequency variants from the native range or to known flowering time pathway genes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A fully Bayesian latent variable model for integrative clustering analysis of multi-type omics data.

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Mo, Qianxing; Shen, Ronglai; Guo, Cui; Vannucci, Marina; Chan, Keith S; Hilsenbeck, Susan G

2018-01-01

Identification of clinically relevant tumor subtypes and omics signatures is an important task in cancer translational research for precision medicine. Large-scale genomic profiling studies such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network have generated vast amounts of genomic, transcriptomic, epigenomic, and proteomic data. While these studies have provided great resources for researchers to discover clinically relevant tumor subtypes and driver molecular alterations, there are few computationally efficient methods and tools for integrative clustering analysis of these multi-type omics data. Therefore, the aim of this article is to develop a fully Bayesian latent variable method (called iClusterBayes) that can jointly model omics data of continuous and discrete data types for identification of tumor subtypes and relevant omics features. Specifically, the proposed method uses a few latent variables to capture the inherent structure of multiple omics data sets to achieve joint dimension reduction. As a result, the tumor samples can be clustered in the latent variable space and relevant omics features that drive the sample clustering are identified through Bayesian variable selection. This method significantly improve on the existing integrative clustering method iClusterPlus in terms of statistical inference and computational speed. By analyzing TCGA and simulated data sets, we demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method in revealing clinically meaningful tumor subtypes and driver omics features. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

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Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

Pairagon+N-SCAN_EST: a model-based gene annotation pipeline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arumugam, Manimozhiyan; Wei, Chaochun; Brown, Randall H

2006-01-01

This paper describes Pairagon+N-SCAN_EST, a gene annotation pipeline that uses only native alignments. For each expressed sequence it chooses the best genomic alignment. Systems like ENSEMBL and ExoGean rely on trans alignments, in which expressed sequences are aligned to the genomic loci...... with de novo gene prediction by using N-SCAN_EST. N-SCAN_EST is based on a generalized HMM probability model augmented with a phylogenetic conservation model and EST alignments. It can predict complete transcripts by extending or merging EST alignments, but it can also predict genes in regions without EST...

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

A whole-genome scan in 164 Dutch sib pairs with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder : Suggestive evidence for linkage on chromosomes 7p and 15q

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, SC; van der Meulen, EM; Buitelaar, JK; Sandkuijl, LA; Pauls, DL; Monsuur, AJ; van't Slot, R; Minderaa, RB; Gunning, WB; Pearson, PL; Sinke, RJ

A genome scan was performed on 164 Dutch affected sib pairs (ASPs) with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). All subjects were white and of Dutch descent and were phenotyped according to criteria set out in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Of Mental Disorders, 4th edition.

Genomic prediction using subsampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

2017-03-24

Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

Allergic rhinitis - a total genome-scan for susceptibility genes suggests a locus on chromosome 4q24-q27

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haagerup, A; Bjerke, T; Schøitz, P O

2001-01-01

Allergic rhinitis is a common disease of complex inheritance and is characterised by mucosal inflammation caused by allergen exposure. The genetics of closely related phenotypes such as asthma, atopy and to some extend atopic dermatitis has attracted attention in recent years. Genetic reports...... of allergic rhinitis on the contrary have as yet been most sparse. To identify candidate regions holding genes for allergic rhinitis we performed a total genome-scan on affected sib-pair families. From 100 Danish sib-pair families selected for allergy, families containing sib-pairs matching a phenotype...

Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Exploring neighborhood inequality in female breast cancer incidence in Tehran using Bayesian spatial models and a spatial scan statistic

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Erfan Ayubi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

Using the gene ontology to scan multilevel gene sets for associations in genome wide association studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaid, Daniel J; Sinnwell, Jason P; Jenkins, Gregory D; McDonnell, Shannon K; Ingle, James N; Kubo, Michiaki; Goss, Paul E; Costantino, Joseph P; Wickerham, D Lawrence; Weinshilboum, Richard M

2012-01-01

Gene-set analyses have been widely used in gene expression studies, and some of the developed methods have been extended to genome wide association studies (GWAS). Yet, complications due to linkage disequilibrium (LD) among single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and variable numbers of SNPs per gene and genes per gene-set, have plagued current approaches, often leading to ad hoc "fixes." To overcome some of the current limitations, we developed a general approach to scan GWAS SNP data for both gene-level and gene-set analyses, building on score statistics for generalized linear models, and taking advantage of the directed acyclic graph structure of the gene ontology when creating gene-sets. However, other types of gene-set structures can be used, such as the popular Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). Our approach combines SNPs into genes, and genes into gene-sets, but assures that positive and negative effects of genes on a trait do not cancel. To control for multiple testing of many gene-sets, we use an efficient computational strategy that accounts for LD and provides accurate step-down adjusted P-values for each gene-set. Application of our methods to two different GWAS provide guidance on the potential strengths and weaknesses of our proposed gene-set analyses. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

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Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

ScreenBEAM: a novel meta-analysis algorithm for functional genomics screens via Bayesian hierarchical modeling | Office of Cancer Genomics

Science.gov (United States)

Functional genomics (FG) screens, using RNAi or CRISPR technology, have become a standard tool for systematic, genome-wide loss-of-function studies for therapeutic target discovery. As in many large-scale assays, however, off-target effects, variable reagents' potency and experimental noise must be accounted for appropriately control for false positives.

A Bayesian Framework for Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling Identifies New Candidate Loci for Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xulong; Philip, Vivek M; Ananda, Guruprasad; White, Charles C; Malhotra, Ankit; Michalski, Paul J; Karuturi, Krishna R Murthy; Chintalapudi, Sumana R; Acklin, Casey; Sasner, Michael; Bennett, David A; De Jager, Philip L; Howell, Gareth R; Carter, Gregory W

2018-03-05

Recent technical and methodological advances have greatly enhanced genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The advent of low-cost whole-genome sequencing facilitates high-resolution variant identification, and the development of linear mixed models (LMM) allows improved identification of putatively causal variants. While essential for correcting false positive associations due to sample relatedness and population stratification, LMMs have commonly been restricted to quantitative variables. However, phenotypic traits in association studies are often categorical, coded as binary case-control or ordered variables describing disease stages. To address these issues, we have devised a method for genomic association studies that implements a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in a Bayesian framework, called Bayes-GLMM Bayes-GLMM has four major features: (1) support of categorical, binary and quantitative variables; (2) cohesive integration of previous GWAS results for related traits; (3) correction for sample relatedness by mixed modeling; and (4) model estimation by both Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and maximal likelihood estimation. We applied Bayes-GLMM to the whole-genome sequencing cohort of the Alzheimer's Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP). This study contains 570 individuals from 111 families, each with Alzheimer's disease diagnosed at one of four confidence levels. With Bayes-GLMM we identified four variants in three loci significantly associated with Alzheimer's disease. Two variants, rs140233081 and rs149372995 lie between PRKAR1B and PDGFA The coded proteins are localized to the glial-vascular unit, and PDGFA transcript levels are associated with AD-related neuropathology. In summary, this work provides implementation of a flexible, generalized mixed model approach in a Bayesian framework for association studies. Copyright © 2018, Genetics.

A genome scan conducted in a multigenerational pedigree with convergent strabismus supports a complex genetic determinism.

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Anouk Georges

Full Text Available A genome-wide linkage scan was conducted in a Northern-European multigenerational pedigree with nine of 40 related members affected with concomitant strabismus. Twenty-seven members of the pedigree including all affected individuals were genotyped using a SNP array interrogating > 300,000 common SNPs. We conducted parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses assuming segregation of an autosomal dominant mutation, yet allowing for incomplete penetrance and phenocopies. We detected two chromosome regions with near-suggestive evidence for linkage, respectively on chromosomes 8 and 18. The chromosome 8 linkage implied a penetrance of 0.80 and a rate of phenocopy of 0.11, while the chromosome 18 linkage implied a penetrance of 0.64 and a rate of phenocopy of 0. Our analysis excludes a simple genetic determinism of strabismus in this pedigree.

A genome scan conducted in a multigenerational pedigree with convergent strabismus supports a complex genetic determinism.

Science.gov (United States)

Georges, Anouk; Cambisano, Nadine; Ahariz, Naïma; Karim, Latifa; Georges, Michel

2013-01-01

A genome-wide linkage scan was conducted in a Northern-European multigenerational pedigree with nine of 40 related members affected with concomitant strabismus. Twenty-seven members of the pedigree including all affected individuals were genotyped using a SNP array interrogating > 300,000 common SNPs. We conducted parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses assuming segregation of an autosomal dominant mutation, yet allowing for incomplete penetrance and phenocopies. We detected two chromosome regions with near-suggestive evidence for linkage, respectively on chromosomes 8 and 18. The chromosome 8 linkage implied a penetrance of 0.80 and a rate of phenocopy of 0.11, while the chromosome 18 linkage implied a penetrance of 0.64 and a rate of phenocopy of 0. Our analysis excludes a simple genetic determinism of strabismus in this pedigree.

Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

Classication Methods for CT-Scanned Carcass Midsections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Jacob Lercke; Dahl, Anders Lindbjerg; Larsen, Rasmus

2011-01-01

Computed tomography (CT) has successfully been applied in medical environments for decades. In recent years CT has also made its entry to the industrial environments, including the slaughterhouses. In this paper we investigate classication methods for an online CT system, in order to assist...... in the segmentation of the outer fat layer in the mid- section of CT-scanned pig carcasses. Prior information about the carcass composition can potentially be applied for a fully automated solution, in order to optimize the slaughter line. The methods comprise Markov Random Field and contextual Bayesian classication...

The complete mitochondrial genome of rabbit pinworm Passalurus ambiguus: genome characterization and phylogenetic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guo-Hua; Li, Sheng; Zou, Feng-Cai; Wang, Chun-Ren; Zhu, Xing-Quan

2016-01-01

Passalurus ambiguus (Nematda: Oxyuridae) is a common pinworm which parasitizes in the caecum and colon of rabbits. Despite its significance as a pathogen, the epidemiology, genetics, systematics, and biology of this pinworm remain poorly understood. In the present study, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial (mt) genome of P. ambiguus. The circular mt genome is 14,023 bp in size and encodes of 36 genes, including 12 protein-coding, two ribosomal RNA, and 22 transfer RNA genes. The mt gene order of P. ambiguus is the same as that of Wellcomia siamensis, but distinct from that of Enterobius vermicularis. Phylogenetic analyses based on concatenated amino acid sequences of 12 protein-coding genes by Bayesian inference (BI) showed that P. ambiguus was more closely related to W. siamensis than to E. vermicularis. This mt genome provides novel genetic markers for studying the molecular epidemiology, population genetics, systematics of pinworm of animals and humans, and should have implications for the diagnosis, prevention, and control of passaluriasis in rabbits and other animals.

The prevalences of Salmonella Genomic Island 1 variants in human and animal Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 are distinguishable using a Bayesian approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison E Mather

Full Text Available Throughout the 1990 s, there was an epidemic of multidrug resistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 in both animals and humans in Scotland. The use of antimicrobials in agriculture is often cited as a major source of antimicrobial resistance in pathogenic bacteria of humans, suggesting that DT104 in animals and humans should demonstrate similar prevalences of resistance determinants. Until very recently, only the application of molecular methods would allow such a comparison and our understanding has been hindered by the fact that surveillance data are primarily phenotypic in nature. Here, using large scale surveillance datasets and a novel Bayesian approach, we infer and compare the prevalence of Salmonella Genomic Island 1 (SGI1, SGI1 variants, and resistance determinants independent of SGI1 in animal and human DT104 isolates from such phenotypic data. We demonstrate differences in the prevalences of SGI1, SGI1-B, SGI1-C, absence of SGI1, and tetracycline resistance determinants independent of SGI1 between these human and animal populations, a finding that challenges established tenets that DT104 in domestic animals and humans are from the same well-mixed microbial population.

Bayesian automated cortical segmentation for neonatal MRI

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Zane; Paquette, Natacha; Ganesh, Bhavana; Wang, Yalin; Ceschin, Rafael; Nelson, Marvin D.; Macyszyn, Luke; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Panigrahy, Ashok; Lepore, Natasha

2017-11-01

Several attempts have been made in the past few years to develop and implement an automated segmentation of neonatal brain structural MRI. However, accurate automated MRI segmentation remains challenging in this population because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, large partial volume effects and inter-individual anatomical variability of the neonatal brain. In this paper, we propose a learning method for segmenting the whole brain cortical grey matter on neonatal T2-weighted images. We trained our algorithm using a neonatal dataset composed of 3 fullterm and 4 preterm infants scanned at term equivalent age. Our segmentation pipeline combines the FAST algorithm from the FSL library software and a Bayesian segmentation approach to create a threshold matrix that minimizes the error of mislabeling brain tissue types. Our method shows promising results with our pilot training set. In both preterm and full-term neonates, automated Bayesian segmentation generates a smoother and more consistent parcellation compared to FAST, while successfully removing the subcortical structure and cleaning the edges of the cortical grey matter. This method show promising refinement of the FAST segmentation by considerably reducing manual input and editing required from the user, and further improving reliability and processing time of neonatal MR images. Further improvement will include a larger dataset of training images acquired from different manufacturers.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

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Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

Genome-wide scan of 29,141 African Americans finds no evidence of directional selection since admixture.

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Bhatia, Gaurav; Tandon, Arti; Patterson, Nick; Aldrich, Melinda C; Ambrosone, Christine B; Amos, Christopher; Bandera, Elisa V; Berndt, Sonja I; Bernstein, Leslie; Blot, William J; Bock, Cathryn H; Caporaso, Neil; Casey, Graham; Deming, Sandra L; Diver, W Ryan; Gapstur, Susan M; Gillanders, Elizabeth M; Harris, Curtis C; Henderson, Brian E; Ingles, Sue A; Isaacs, William; De Jager, Phillip L; John, Esther M; Kittles, Rick A; Larkin, Emma; McNeill, Lorna H; Millikan, Robert C; Murphy, Adam; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Nyante, Sarah; Press, Michael F; Rodriguez-Gil, Jorge L; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Schwartz, Ann G; Signorello, Lisa B; Spitz, Margaret; Strom, Sara S; Tucker, Margaret A; Wiencke, John K; Witte, John S; Wu, Xifeng; Yamamura, Yuko; Zanetti, Krista A; Zheng, Wei; Ziegler, Regina G; Chanock, Stephen J; Haiman, Christopher A; Reich, David; Price, Alkes L

2014-10-02

The extent of recent selection in admixed populations is currently an unresolved question. We scanned the genomes of 29,141 African Americans and failed to find any genome-wide-significant deviations in local ancestry, indicating no evidence of selection influencing ancestry after admixture. A recent analysis of data from 1,890 African Americans reported that there was evidence of selection in African Americans after their ancestors left Africa, both before and after admixture. Selection after admixture was reported on the basis of deviations in local ancestry, and selection before admixture was reported on the basis of allele-frequency differences between African Americans and African populations. The local-ancestry deviations reported by the previous study did not replicate in our very large sample, and we show that such deviations were expected purely by chance, given the number of hypotheses tested. We further show that the previous study's conclusion of selection in African Americans before admixture is also subject to doubt. This is because the FST statistics they used were inflated and because true signals of unusual allele-frequency differences between African Americans and African populations would be best explained by selection that occurred in Africa prior to migration to the Americas. Copyright © 2014 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Allele frequency changes due to hitch-hiking in genomic selection programs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Huiming; Sørensen, Anders Christian; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2014-01-01

of inbreeding due to changes in allele frequencies and hitch-hiking. This study aimed at understanding the impact of using long-term genomic selection on changes in allele frequencies, genetic variation and the level of inbreeding. Methods Selection was performed in simulated scenarios with a population of 400......-BLUP, Genomic BLUP and Bayesian Lasso. Changes in allele frequencies at QTL, markers and linked neutral loci were investigated for the different selection criteria and different scenarios, along with the loss of favourable alleles and the rate of inbreeding measured by pedigree and runs of homozygosity. Results...

Methods to improve genomic prediction and GWAS using combined Holstein populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Xiujin

The thesis focuses on methods to improve GWAS and genomic prediction using combined Holstein populations and investigations G by E interaction. The conclusions are: 1) Prediction reliabilities for Brazilian Holsteins can be increased by adding Nordic and Frensh genotyped bulls and a large G by E...... interaction exists between populations. 2) Combining data from Chinese and Danish Holstein populations increases the power of GWAS and detects new QTL regions for milk fatty acid traits. 3) The novel multi-trait Bayesian model efficiently estimates region-specific genomic variances, covariances...

Comprehensive genomic characterization of campylobacter genus reveals some underlying mechanisms for its genomic diversification.

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Yizhuang Zhou

Full Text Available Campylobacter species.are phenotypically diverse in many aspects including host habitats and pathogenicities, which demands comprehensive characterization of the entire Campylobacter genus to study their underlying genetic diversification. Up to now, 34 Campylobacter strains have been sequenced and published in public databases, providing good opportunity to systemically analyze their genomic diversities. In this study, we first conducted genomic characterization, which includes genome-wide alignments, pan-genome analysis, and phylogenetic identification, to depict the genetic diversity of Campylobacter genus. Afterward, we improved the tetranucleotide usage pattern-based naïve Bayesian classifier to identify the abnormal composition fragments (ACFs, fragments with significantly different tetranucleotide frequency profiles from its genomic tetranucleotide frequency profiles including horizontal gene transfers (HGTs to explore the mechanisms for the genetic diversity of this organism. Finally, we analyzed the HGTs transferred via bacteriophage transductions. To our knowledge, this study is the first to use single nucleotide polymorphism information to construct liable microevolution phylogeny of 21 Campylobacter jejuni strains. Combined with the phylogeny of all the collected Campylobacter species based on genome-wide core gene information, comprehensive phylogenetic inference of all 34 Campylobacter organisms was determined. It was found that C. jejuni harbors a high fraction of ACFs possibly through intraspecies recombination, whereas other Campylobacter members possess numerous ACFs possibly via intragenus recombination. Furthermore, some Campylobacter strains have undergone significant ancient viral integration during their evolution process. The improved method is a powerful tool for bacterial genomic analysis. Moreover, the findings would provide useful information for future research on Campylobacter genus.

3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

DETECTING SELECTION IN NATURAL POPULATIONS: MAKING SENSE OF GENOME SCANS AND TOWARDS ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS

Science.gov (United States)

Haasl, Ryan J.; Payseur, Bret A.

2016-01-01

Genomewide scans for natural selection (GWSS) have become increasingly common over the last 15 years due to increased availability of genome-scale genetic data. Here, we report a representative survey of GWSS from 1999 to present and find that (i) between 1999 and 2009, 35 of 49 (71%) GWSS focused on human, while from 2010 to present, only 38 of 83 (46%) of GWSS focused on human, indicating increased focus on nonmodel organisms; (ii) the large majority of GWSS incorporate interpopulation or interspecific comparisons using, for example FST, cross-population extended haplotype homozygosity or the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions; (iii) most GWSS focus on detection of directional selection rather than other modes such as balancing selection; and (iv) in human GWSS, there is a clear shift after 2004 from microsatellite markers to dense SNP data. A survey of GWSS meant to identify loci positively selected in response to severe hypoxic conditions support an approach to GWSS in which a list of a priori candidate genes based on potential selective pressures are used to filter the list of significant hits a posteriori. We also discuss four frequently ignored determinants of genomic heterogeneity that complicate GWSS: mutation, recombination, selection and the genetic architecture of adaptive traits. We recommend that GWSS methodology should better incorporate aspects of genomewide heterogeneity using empirical estimates of relevant parameters and/or realistic, whole-chromosome simulations to improve interpretation of GWSS results. Finally, we argue that knowledge of potential selective agents improves interpretation of GWSS results and that new methods focused on correlations between environmental variables and genetic variation can help automate this approach. PMID:26224644

Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

Bayesian methods for jointly estimating genomic breeding values of one continuous and one threshold trait.

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Chonglong Wang

Full Text Available Genomic selection has become a useful tool for animal and plant breeding. Currently, genomic evaluation is usually carried out using a single-trait model. However, a multi-trait model has the advantage of using information on the correlated traits, leading to more accurate genomic prediction. To date, joint genomic prediction for a continuous and a threshold trait using a multi-trait model is scarce and needs more attention. Based on the previously proposed methods BayesCπ for single continuous trait and BayesTCπ for single threshold trait, we developed a novel method based on a linear-threshold model, i.e., LT-BayesCπ, for joint genomic prediction of a continuous trait and a threshold trait. Computing procedures of LT-BayesCπ using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm were derived. A simulation study was performed to investigate the advantages of LT-BayesCπ over BayesCπ and BayesTCπ with regard to the accuracy of genomic prediction on both traits. Factors affecting the performance of LT-BayesCπ were addressed. The results showed that, in all scenarios, the accuracy of genomic prediction obtained from LT-BayesCπ was significantly increased for the threshold trait compared to that from single trait prediction using BayesTCπ, while the accuracy for the continuous trait was comparable with that from single trait prediction using BayesCπ. The proposed LT-BayesCπ could be a method of choice for joint genomic prediction of one continuous and one threshold trait.

Bayesian Modeling of ChIP-chip Data Through a High-Order Ising Model

KAUST Repository

Mo, Qianxing

2010-01-29

ChIP-chip experiments are procedures that combine chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and DNA microarray (chip) technology to study a variety of biological problems, including protein-DNA interaction, histone modification, and DNA methylation. The most important feature of ChIP-chip data is that the intensity measurements of probes are spatially correlated because the DNA fragments are hybridized to neighboring probes in the experiments. We propose a simple, but powerful Bayesian hierarchical approach to ChIP-chip data through an Ising model with high-order interactions. The proposed method naturally takes into account the intrinsic spatial structure of the data and can be used to analyze data from multiple platforms with different genomic resolutions. The model parameters are estimated using the Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is illustrated using two publicly available data sets from Affymetrix and Agilent platforms, and compared with three alternative Bayesian methods, namely, Bayesian hierarchical model, hierarchical gamma mixture model, and Tilemap hidden Markov model. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method performs as well as the other three methods for the data from Affymetrix tiling arrays, but significantly outperforms the other three methods for the data from Agilent promoter arrays. In addition, we find that the proposed method has better operating characteristics in terms of sensitivities and false discovery rates under various scenarios. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

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Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

An efficient Bayesian meta-analysis approach for studying cross-phenotype genetic associations.

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Arunabha Majumdar

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy. For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package 'CPBayes' implementing the proposed method.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

Fast gradient-based methods for Bayesian reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mumcuglu, E.U.; Leahy, R.; Zhou, Z.; Cherry, S.R.

1994-01-01

The authors describe conjugate gradient algorithms for reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images. The reconstructions are based on a Bayesian formulation, where the data are modeled as a collection of independent Poisson random variables and the image is modeled using a Markov random field. A conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image by maximizing over the posterior density. To ensure nonnegativity of the solution, a penalty function is used to convert the problem to one of unconstrained optimization. Preconditioners are used to enhance convergence rates. These methods generally achieve effective convergence in 15--25 iterations. Reconstructions are presented of an 18 FDG whole body scan from data collected using a Siemens/CTI ECAT931 whole body system. These results indicate significant improvements in emission image quality using the Bayesian approach, in comparison to filtered backprojection, particularly when reprojections of the MAP transmission image are used in place of the standard attenuation correction factors

Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

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Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

Meta-analysis of genome-wide scans for human adult stature identifies novel Loci and associations with measures of skeletal frame size.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicole Soranzo

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Recent genome-wide (GW scans have identified several independent loci affecting human stature, but their contribution through the different skeletal components of height is still poorly understood. We carried out a genome-wide scan in 12,611 participants, followed by replication in an additional 7,187 individuals, and identified 17 genomic regions with GW-significant association with height. Of these, two are entirely novel (rs11809207 in CATSPER4, combined P-value = 6.1x10(-8 and rs910316 in TMED10, P-value = 1.4x10(-7 and two had previously been described with weak statistical support (rs10472828 in NPR3, P-value = 3x10(-7 and rs849141 in JAZF1, P-value = 3.2x10(-11. One locus (rs1182188 at GNA12 identifies the first height eQTL. We also assessed the contribution of height loci to the upper- (trunk and lower-body (hip axis and femur skeletal components of height. We find evidence for several loci associated with trunk length (including rs6570507 in GPR126, P-value = 4x10(-5 and rs6817306 in LCORL, P-value = 4x10(-4, hip axis length (including rs6830062 at LCORL, P-value = 4.8x10(-4 and rs4911494 at UQCC, P-value = 1.9x10(-4, and femur length (including rs710841 at PRKG2, P-value = 2.4x10(-5 and rs10946808 at HIST1H1D, P-value = 6.4x10(-6. Finally, we used conditional analyses to explore a possible differential contribution of the height loci to these different skeletal size measurements. In addition to validating four novel loci controlling adult stature, our study represents the first effort to assess the contribution of genetic loci to three skeletal components of height. Further statistical tests in larger numbers of individuals will be required to verify if the height loci affect height preferentially through these subcomponents of height.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Navigating the Interface Between Landscape Genetics and Landscape Genomics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Storfer

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As next-generation sequencing data become increasingly available for non-model organisms, a shift has occurred in the focus of studies of the geographic distribution of genetic variation. Whereas landscape genetics studies primarily focus on testing the effects of landscape variables on gene flow and genetic population structure, landscape genomics studies focus on detecting candidate genes under selection that indicate possible local adaptation. Navigating the transition between landscape genomics and landscape genetics can be challenging. The number of molecular markers analyzed has shifted from what used to be a few dozen loci to thousands of loci and even full genomes. Although genome scale data can be separated into sets of neutral loci for analyses of gene flow and population structure and putative loci under selection for inference of local adaptation, there are inherent differences in the questions that are addressed in the two study frameworks. We discuss these differences and their implications for study design, marker choice and downstream analysis methods. Similar to the rapid proliferation of analysis methods in the early development of landscape genetics, new analytical methods for detection of selection in landscape genomics studies are burgeoning. We focus on genome scan methods for detection of selection, and in particular, outlier differentiation methods and genetic-environment association tests because they are the most widely used. Use of genome scan methods requires an understanding of the potential mismatches between the biology of a species and assumptions inherent in analytical methods used, which can lead to high false positive rates of detected loci under selection. Key to choosing appropriate genome scan methods is an understanding of the underlying demographic structure of study populations, and such data can be obtained using neutral loci from the generated genome-wide data or prior knowledge of a species

Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Margaritis, Dimitris

1999-01-01

.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

Whole genome association study identifies regions of the bovine genome and biological pathways involved in carcass trait performance in Holstein-Friesian cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Doran, Anthony G; Berry, Donagh P; Creevey, Christopher J

2014-10-01

Four traits related to carcass performance have been identified as economically important in beef production: carcass weight, carcass fat, carcass conformation of progeny and cull cow carcass weight. Although Holstein-Friesian cattle are primarily utilized for milk production, they are also an important source of meat for beef production and export. Because of this, there is great interest in understanding the underlying genomic structure influencing these traits. Several genome-wide association studies have identified regions of the bovine genome associated with growth or carcass traits, however, little is known about the mechanisms or underlying biological pathways involved. This study aims to detect regions of the bovine genome associated with carcass performance traits (employing a panel of 54,001 SNPs) using measures of genetic merit (as predicted transmitting abilities) for 5,705 Irish Holstein-Friesian animals. Candidate genes and biological pathways were then identified for each trait under investigation. Following adjustment for false discovery (q-value carcass traits using a single SNP regression approach. Using a Bayesian approach, 46 QTL were associated (posterior probability > 0.5) with at least one of the four traits. In total, 557 unique bovine genes, which mapped to 426 human orthologs, were within 500kbs of QTL found associated with a trait using the Bayesian approach. Using this information, 24 significantly over-represented pathways were identified across all traits. The most significantly over-represented biological pathway was the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) signaling pathway. A large number of genomic regions putatively associated with bovine carcass traits were detected using two different statistical approaches. Notably, several significant associations were detected in close proximity to genes with a known role in animal growth such as glucagon and leptin. Several biological pathways, including PPAR signaling, were

A Bayesian encourages dropout

OpenAIRE

Maeda, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Reliabilities of genomic estimated breeding values in Danish Jersey

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomasen, Jørn Rind; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt; Su, Guosheng

2012-01-01

In order to optimize the use of genomic selection in breeding plans, it is essential to have reliable estimates of the genomic breeding values. This study investigated reliabilities of direct genomic values (DGVs) in the Jersey population estimated by three different methods. The validation methods...... were (i) fivefold cross-validation and (ii) validation on the most recent 3 years of bulls. The reliability of DGV was assessed using squared correlations between DGV and deregressed proofs (DRPs). In the recent 3-year validation model, estimated reliabilities were also used to assess the reliabilities...... of DGV. The data set consisted of 1003 Danish Jersey bulls with conventional estimated breeding values (EBVs) for 14 different traits included in the Nordic selection index. The bulls were genotyped for Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers using the Illumina 54 K chip. A Bayesian method was used...

Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

2009-01-01

(domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Systematics and morphological evolution within the moss family Bryaceae: a comparison between parsimony and Bayesian methods for reconstruction of ancestral character states.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Niklas; Holyoak, David T; Newton, Angela E

2007-06-01

The Bryaceae are a large cosmopolitan moss family including genera of significant morphological and taxonomic complexity. Phylogenetic relationships within the Bryaceae were reconstructed based on DNA sequence data from all three genomic compartments. In addition, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were employed to reconstruct ancestral character states of 38 morphological plus four habitat characters and eight insertion/deletion events. The recovered phylogenetic patterns are generally in accord with previous phylogenies based on chloroplast DNA sequence data and three major clades are identified. The first clade comprises Bryum bornholmense, B. rubens, B. caespiticium, and Plagiobryum. This corroborates the hypothesis suggested by previous studies that several Bryum species are more closely related to Plagiobryum than to the core Bryum species. The second clade includes Acidodontium, Anomobryum, and Haplodontium, while the third clade contains the core Bryum species plus Imbribryum. Within the latter clade, B. subapiculatum and B. tenuisetum form the sister clade to Imbribryum. Reconstructions of ancestral character states under maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference suggest fourteen morphological synapomorphies for the ingroup and synapomorphies are detected for most clades within the ingroup. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral character states are mostly congruent although Bayesian inference shows that the posterior probability of ancestral character states may decrease dramatically when node support is taken into account. Bayesian inference also indicates that reconstructions may be ambiguous at internal nodes for highly polymorphic characters.

prokaryote genome annotation with GeneScan and GLIMMER

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Unknown

The number of false predictions (both positive and negative) is higher for GeneScan as compared to GLIMMER, but in a ... on whether they need to be trained on a set of genes in order to ..... FP has partial matches to the kdpA gene in C. jejuni.

Bayesian Utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

ZHOU, Lin

1996-01-01

In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

A genome-wide scan for selection signatures in Nellore cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Somavilla, A L; Sonstegard, T S; Higa, R H; Rosa, A N; Siqueira, F; Silva, L O C; Torres Júnior, R A A; Coutinho, L L; Mudadu, M A; Alencar, M M; Regitano, L C A

2014-12-01

Brazilian Nellore cattle (Bos indicus) have been selected for growth traits for over more than four decades. In recent years, reproductive and meat quality traits have become more important because of increasing consumption, exports and consumer demand. The identification of genome regions altered by artificial selection can potentially permit a better understanding of the biology of specific phenotypes that are useful for the development of tools designed to increase selection efficiency. Therefore, the aims of this study were to detect evidence of recent selection signatures in Nellore cattle using extended haplotype homozygosity methodology and BovineHD marker genotypes (>777,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms) as well as to identify corresponding genes underlying these signals. Thirty-one significant regions (P meat quality, fatty acid profiles and immunity. In addition, 545 genes were identified in regions harboring selection signatures. Within this group, 58 genes were associated with growth, muscle and adipose tissue metabolism, reproductive traits or the immune system. Using relative extended haplotype homozygosity to analyze high-density single nucleotide polymorphism marker data allowed for the identification of regions potentially under artificial selection pressure in the Nellore genome, which might be used to better understand autozygosity and the effects of selection on the Nellore genome. © 2014 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

Accuracy of genomic selection in biparental populations of flax (Linum usitatissimum L.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank M. You

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Flax is an important economic crop for seed oil and stem fiber. Phenotyping of traits such as seed yield, seed quality, stem fiber yield, and quality characteristics is expensive and time consuming. Genomic selection (GS refers to a breeding approach aimed at selecting preferred individuals based on genomic estimated breeding values predicted by a statistical model based on the relationship between phenotypes and genome-wide genetic markers. We evaluated the prediction accuracy of GS (rMP and the efficiency of GS relative to phenotypic selection (RE for three GS models: ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP, Bayesian LASSO (BL, and Bayesian ridge regression (BRR, for seed yield, oil content, iodine value, linoleic, and linolenic acid content with a full and a common set of genome-wide simple sequence repeat markers in each of three biparental populations. The three GS models generated similar rMP and RE, while BRR displayed a higher coefficient of determination (R2 of the fitted models than did RR-BLUP or BL. The mean rMP and RE varied for traits with different heritabilities and was affected by the genetic variation of the traits in the populations. GS for seed yield generated a mean RE of 1.52 across populations and marker sets, a value significantly superior to that for direct phenotypic selection. Our empirical results provide the first validation of GS in flax and demonstrate that GS could increase genetic gain per unit time for linseed breeding. Further studies for selection of training populations and markers are warranted.

Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

Science.gov (United States)

Caudle, Kyle

2010-01-01

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

The mitochondrial genome of Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich (Diptera: Tachinidae and the evolutionary timescale of Tachinid flies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Zhao

Full Text Available Tachinid flies are natural enemies of many lepidopteran and coleopteran pests of forests, crops, and fruit trees. In order to address the lack of genetic data in this economically important group, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial genome of the Palaearctic tachinid fly Elodia flavipalpis Aldrich, 1933. Usually found in Northern China and Japan, this species is one of the primary natural enemies of the leaf-roller moths (Tortricidae, which are major pests of various fruit trees. The 14,932-bp mitochondrial genome was typical of Diptera, with 13 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. However, its control region is only 105 bp in length, which is the shortest found so far in flies. In order to estimate dipteran evolutionary relationships, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of 58 mitochondrial genomes from 23 families. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods supported the monophyly of both Tachinidae and superfamily Oestroidea. Within the subsection Calyptratae, Muscidae was inferred as the sister group to Oestroidea. Within Oestroidea, Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae formed a sister clade to Oestridae and Tachinidae. Using a Bayesian relaxed clock calibrated with fossil data, we estimated that Tachinidae originated in the middle Eocene.

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Asimit, Jennifer L; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Wheeler, Eleanor; Berndt, Sonja I; Cordell, Heather J; Morris, Andrew P; Zeggini, Eleftheria; Barroso, Inês

2015-12-01

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis. © 2015 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genome scan identifies a locus affecting gamma-globin expression in human beta-cluster YAC transgenic mice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, S.D.; Cooper, P.; Fung, J.; Weier, H.U.G.; Rubin, E.M.

2000-03-01

Genetic factors affecting post-natal g-globin expression - a major modifier of the severity of both b-thalassemia and sickle cell anemia, have been difficult to study. This is especially so in mice, an organism lacking a globin gene with an expression pattern equivalent to that of human g-globin. To model the human b-cluster in mice, with the goal of screening for loci affecting human g-globin expression in vivo, we introduced a human b-globin cluster YAC transgene into the genome of FVB mice . The b-cluster contained a Greek hereditary persistence of fetal hemoglobin (HPFH) g allele resulting in postnatal expression of human g-globin in transgenic mice. The level of human g-globin for various F1 hybrids derived from crosses between the FVB transgenics and other inbred mouse strains was assessed. The g-globin level of the C3HeB/FVB transgenic mice was noted to be significantly elevated. To map genes affecting postnatal g-globin expression, a 20 centiMorgan (cM) genome scan of a C3HeB/F VB transgenics [prime] FVB backcross was performed, followed by high-resolution marker analysis of promising loci. From this analysis we mapped a locus within a 2.2 cM interval of mouse chromosome 1 at a LOD score of 4.2 that contributes 10.4% of variation in g-globin expression level. Combining transgenic modeling of the human b-globin gene cluster with quantitative trait analysis, we have identified and mapped a murine locus that impacts on human g-globin expression in vivo.

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2009-02-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MutScan: fast detection and visualization of target mutations by scanning FASTQ data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shifu; Huang, Tanxiao; Wen, Tiexiang; Li, Hong; Xu, Mingyan; Gu, Jia

2018-01-22

Some types of clinical genetic tests, such as cancer testing using circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), require sensitive detection of known target mutations. However, conventional next-generation sequencing (NGS) data analysis pipelines typically involve different steps of filtering, which may cause miss-detection of key mutations with low frequencies. Variant validation is also indicated for key mutations detected by bioinformatics pipelines. Typically, this process can be executed using alignment visualization tools such as IGV or GenomeBrowse. However, these tools are too heavy and therefore unsuitable for validating mutations in ultra-deep sequencing data. We developed MutScan to address problems of sensitive detection and efficient validation for target mutations. MutScan involves highly optimized string-searching algorithms, which can scan input FASTQ files to grab all reads that support target mutations. The collected supporting reads for each target mutation will be piled up and visualized using web technologies such as HTML and JavaScript. Algorithms such as rolling hash and bloom filter are applied to accelerate scanning and make MutScan applicable to detect or visualize target mutations in a very fast way. MutScan is a tool for the detection and visualization of target mutations by only scanning FASTQ raw data directly. Compared to conventional pipelines, this offers a very high performance, executing about 20 times faster, and offering maximal sensitivity since it can grab mutations with even one single supporting read. MutScan visualizes detected mutations by generating interactive pile-ups using web technologies. These can serve to validate target mutations, thus avoiding false positives. Furthermore, MutScan can visualize all mutation records in a VCF file to HTML pages for cloud-friendly VCF validation. MutScan is an open source tool available at GitHub: https://github.com/OpenGene/MutScan.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

Bayesian Networks An Introduction

CERN Document Server

Koski, Timo

2009-01-01

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkheir Essebbar

2004-02-01

Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

Congruent Deep Relationships in the Grape Family (Vitaceae) Based on Sequences of Chloroplast Genomes and Mitochondrial Genes via Genome Skimming.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ning; Wen, Jun; Zimmer, Elizabeth A

2015-01-01

Vitaceae is well-known for having one of the most economically important fruits, i.e., the grape (Vitis vinifera). The deep phylogeny of the grape family was not resolved until a recent phylogenomic analysis of 417 nuclear genes from transcriptome data. However, it has been reported extensively that topologies based on nuclear and organellar genes may be incongruent due to differences in their evolutionary histories. Therefore, it is important to reconstruct a backbone phylogeny of the grape family using plastomes and mitochondrial genes. In this study,next-generation sequencing data sets of 27 species were obtained using genome skimming with total DNAs from silica-gel preserved tissue samples on an Illumina NextSeq 500 instrument [corrected]. Plastomes were assembled using the combination of de novo and reference genome (of V. vinifera) methods. Sixteen mitochondrial genes were also obtained via genome skimming using the reference genome of V. vinifera. Extensive phylogenetic analyses were performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The topology based on either plastome data or mitochondrial genes is congruent with the one using hundreds of nuclear genes, indicating that the grape family did not exhibit significant reticulation at the deep level. The results showcase the power of genome skimming in capturing extensive phylogenetic data: especially from chloroplast and mitochondrial DNAs.

Congruent Deep Relationships in the Grape Family (Vitaceae Based on Sequences of Chloroplast Genomes and Mitochondrial Genes via Genome Skimming.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Zhang

Full Text Available Vitaceae is well-known for having one of the most economically important fruits, i.e., the grape (Vitis vinifera. The deep phylogeny of the grape family was not resolved until a recent phylogenomic analysis of 417 nuclear genes from transcriptome data. However, it has been reported extensively that topologies based on nuclear and organellar genes may be incongruent due to differences in their evolutionary histories. Therefore, it is important to reconstruct a backbone phylogeny of the grape family using plastomes and mitochondrial genes. In this study,next-generation sequencing data sets of 27 species were obtained using genome skimming with total DNAs from silica-gel preserved tissue samples on an Illumina NextSeq 500 instrument [corrected]. Plastomes were assembled using the combination of de novo and reference genome (of V. vinifera methods. Sixteen mitochondrial genes were also obtained via genome skimming using the reference genome of V. vinifera. Extensive phylogenetic analyses were performed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The topology based on either plastome data or mitochondrial genes is congruent with the one using hundreds of nuclear genes, indicating that the grape family did not exhibit significant reticulation at the deep level. The results showcase the power of genome skimming in capturing extensive phylogenetic data: especially from chloroplast and mitochondrial DNAs.

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

GI-POP: a combinational annotation and genomic island prediction pipeline for ongoing microbial genome projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chi-Ching; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Yao, Tzu-Jung; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Lo, Wei-Cheng; Lyu, Ping-Chiang; Tang, Chuan Yi

2013-04-10

Sequencing of microbial genomes is important because of microbial-carrying antibiotic and pathogenetic activities. However, even with the help of new assembling software, finishing a whole genome is a time-consuming task. In most bacteria, pathogenetic or antibiotic genes are carried in genomic islands. Therefore, a quick genomic island (GI) prediction method is useful for ongoing sequencing genomes. In this work, we built a Web server called GI-POP (http://gipop.life.nthu.edu.tw) which integrates a sequence assembling tool, a functional annotation pipeline, and a high-performance GI predicting module, in a support vector machine (SVM)-based method called genomic island genomic profile scanning (GI-GPS). The draft genomes of the ongoing genome projects in contigs or scaffolds can be submitted to our Web server, and it provides the functional annotation and highly probable GI-predicting results. GI-POP is a comprehensive annotation Web server designed for ongoing genome project analysis. Researchers can perform annotation and obtain pre-analytic information include possible GIs, coding/non-coding sequences and functional analysis from their draft genomes. This pre-analytic system can provide useful information for finishing a genome sequencing project. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Identifying signatures of natural selection in Tibetan and Andean populations using dense genome scan data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abigail Bigham

2010-09-01

Full Text Available High-altitude hypoxia (reduced inspired oxygen tension due to decreased barometric pressure exerts severe physiological stress on the human body. Two high-altitude regions where humans have lived for millennia are the Andean Altiplano and the Tibetan Plateau. Populations living in these regions exhibit unique circulatory, respiratory, and hematological adaptations to life at high altitude. Although these responses have been well characterized physiologically, their underlying genetic basis remains unknown. We performed a genome scan to identify genes showing evidence of adaptation to hypoxia. We looked across each chromosome to identify genomic regions with previously unknown function with respect to altitude phenotypes. In addition, groups of genes functioning in oxygen metabolism and sensing were examined to test the hypothesis that particular pathways have been involved in genetic adaptation to altitude. Applying four population genetic statistics commonly used for detecting signatures of natural selection, we identified selection-nominated candidate genes and gene regions in these two populations (Andeans and Tibetans separately. The Tibetan and Andean patterns of genetic adaptation are largely distinct from one another, with both populations showing evidence of positive natural selection in different genes or gene regions. Interestingly, one gene previously known to be important in cellular oxygen sensing, EGLN1 (also known as PHD2, shows evidence of positive selection in both Tibetans and Andeans. However, the pattern of variation for this gene differs between the two populations. Our results indicate that several key HIF-regulatory and targeted genes are responsible for adaptation to high altitude in Andeans and Tibetans, and several different chromosomal regions are implicated in the putative response to selection. These data suggest a genetic role in high-altitude adaption and provide a basis for future genotype/phenotype association

Analysis tools for the interplay between genome layout and regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouyioukos, Costas; Elati, Mohamed; Képès, François

2016-06-06

Genome layout and gene regulation appear to be interdependent. Understanding this interdependence is key to exploring the dynamic nature of chromosome conformation and to engineering functional genomes. Evidence for non-random genome layout, defined as the relative positioning of either co-functional or co-regulated genes, stems from two main approaches. Firstly, the analysis of contiguous genome segments across species, has highlighted the conservation of gene arrangement (synteny) along chromosomal regions. Secondly, the study of long-range interactions along a chromosome has emphasised regularities in the positioning of microbial genes that are co-regulated, co-expressed or evolutionarily correlated. While one-dimensional pattern analysis is a mature field, it is often powerless on biological datasets which tend to be incomplete, and partly incorrect. Moreover, there is a lack of comprehensive, user-friendly tools to systematically analyse, visualise, integrate and exploit regularities along genomes. Here we present the Genome REgulatory and Architecture Tools SCAN (GREAT:SCAN) software for the systematic study of the interplay between genome layout and gene expression regulation. SCAN is a collection of related and interconnected applications currently able to perform systematic analyses of genome regularities as well as to improve transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and gene regulatory network predictions based on gene positional information. We demonstrate the capabilities of these tools by studying on one hand the regular patterns of genome layout in the major regulons of the bacterium Escherichia coli. On the other hand, we demonstrate the capabilities to improve TFBS prediction in microbes. Finally, we highlight, by visualisation of multivariate techniques, the interplay between position and sequence information for effective transcription regulation.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

CERN Document Server

Riggelsen, C

2008-01-01

This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

Personal genomics services: whose genomes?

Science.gov (United States)

Gurwitz, David; Bregman-Eschet, Yael

2009-07-01

New companies offering personal whole-genome information services over the internet are dynamic and highly visible players in the personal genomics field. For fees currently ranging from US$399 to US$2500 and a vial of saliva, individuals can now purchase online access to their individual genetic information regarding susceptibility to a range of chronic diseases and phenotypic traits based on a genome-wide SNP scan. Most of the companies offering such services are based in the United States, but their clients may come from nearly anywhere in the world. Although the scientific validity, clinical utility and potential future implications of such services are being hotly debated, several ethical and regulatory questions related to direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing strategies of genetic tests have not yet received sufficient attention. For example, how can we minimize the risk of unauthorized third parties from submitting other people's DNA for testing? Another pressing question concerns the ownership of (genotypic and phenotypic) information, as well as the unclear legal status of customers regarding their own personal information. Current legislation in the US and Europe falls short of providing clear answers to these questions. Until the regulation of personal genomics services catches up with the technology, we call upon commercial providers to self-regulate and coordinate their activities to minimize potential risks to individual privacy. We also point out some specific steps, along the trustee model, that providers of DTC personal genomics services as well as regulators and policy makers could consider for addressing some of the concerns raised below.

Bayesian community detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

2012-01-01

Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.

2016-02-13

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

2016-01-01

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

Genome rearrangements and phylogeny reconstruction in Yersinia pestis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bochkareva, Olga O; Dranenko, Natalia O; Ocheredko, Elena S; Kanevsky, German M; Lozinsky, Yaroslav N; Khalaycheva, Vera A; Artamonova, Irena I; Gelfand, Mikhail S

2018-01-01

Genome rearrangements have played an important role in the evolution of Yersinia pestis from its progenitor Yersinia pseudotuberculosis . Traditional phylogenetic trees for Y. pestis based on sequence comparison have short internal branches and low bootstrap supports as only a small number of nucleotide substitutions have occurred. On the other hand, even a small number of genome rearrangements may resolve topological ambiguities in a phylogenetic tree. We reconstructed phylogenetic trees based on genome rearrangements using several popular approaches such as Maximum likelihood for Gene Order and the Bayesian model of genome rearrangements by inversions. We also reconciled phylogenetic trees for each of the three CRISPR loci to obtain an integrated scenario of the CRISPR cassette evolution. Analysis of contradictions between the obtained evolutionary trees yielded numerous parallel inversions and gain/loss events. Our data indicate that an integrated analysis of sequence-based and inversion-based trees enhances the resolution of phylogenetic reconstruction. In contrast, reconstructions of strain relationships based on solely CRISPR loci may not be reliable, as the history is obscured by large deletions, obliterating the order of spacer gains. Similarly, numerous parallel gene losses preclude reconstruction of phylogeny based on gene content.

Parallelized Bayesian inversion for three-dimensional dental X-ray imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolehmainen, Ville; Vanne, Antti; Siltanen, Samuli; Järvenpää, Seppo; Kaipio, Jari P; Lassas, Matti; Kalke, Martti

2006-02-01

Diagnostic and operational tasks based on dental radiology often require three-dimensional (3-D) information that is not available in a single X-ray projection image. Comprehensive 3-D information about tissues can be obtained by computerized tomography (CT) imaging. However, in dental imaging a conventional CT scan may not be available or practical because of high radiation dose, low-resolution or the cost of the CT scanner equipment. In this paper, we consider a novel type of 3-D imaging modality for dental radiology. We consider situations in which projection images of the teeth are taken from a few sparsely distributed projection directions using the dentist's regular (digital) X-ray equipment and the 3-D X-ray attenuation function is reconstructed. A complication in these experiments is that the reconstruction of the 3-D structure based on a few projection images becomes an ill-posed inverse problem. Bayesian inversion is a well suited framework for reconstruction from such incomplete data. In Bayesian inversion, the ill-posed reconstruction problem is formulated in a well-posed probabilistic form in which a priori information is used to compensate for the incomplete information of the projection data. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for 3-D reconstruction in dental radiology. The method is partially based on Kolehmainen et al. 2003. The prior model for dental structures consist of a weighted l1 and total variation (TV)-prior together with the positivity prior. The inverse problem is stated as finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. To make the 3-D reconstruction computationally feasible, a parallelized version of an optimization algorithm is implemented for a Beowulf cluster computer. The method is tested with projection data from dental specimens and patient data. Tomosynthetic reconstructions are given as reference for the proposed method.

The first mitochondrial genome for the butterfly family Riodinidae (Abisara fylloides) and its systematic implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Fang; Huang, Dun-Yuan; Sun, Xiao-Yan; Shi, Qing-Hui; Hao, Jia-Sheng; Zhang, Lan-Lan; Yang, Qun

2013-10-01

The Riodinidae is one of the lepidopteran butterfly families. This study describes the complete mitochondrial genome of the butterfly species Abisara fylloides, the first mitochondrial genome of the Riodinidae family. The results show that the entire mitochondrial genome of A. fylloides is 15 301 bp in length, and contains 13 protein-coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNA genes, 22 transfer RNA genes and a 423 bp A+T-rich region. The gene content, orientation and order are identical to the majority of other lepidopteran insects. Phylogenetic reconstruction was conducted using the concatenated 13 protein-coding gene (PCG) sequences of 19 available butterfly species covering all the five butterfly families (Papilionidae, Nymphalidae, Peridae, Lycaenidae and Riodinidae). Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses highly supported the monophyly of Lycaenidae+Riodinidae, which was standing as the sister of Nymphalidae. In addition, we propose that the riodinids be categorized into the family Lycaenidae as a subfamilial taxon. The Riodinidae is one of the lepidopteran butterfly families. This study describes the complete mitochondrial genome of the butterfly species Abisara fylloides , the first mitochondrial genome of the Riodinidae family. The results show that the entire mitochondrial genome of A. fylloides is 15 301 bp in length, and contains 13 protein-coding genes, 2 ribosomal RNA genes, 22 transfer RNA genes and a 423 bp A+T-rich region. The gene content, orientation and order are identical to the majority of other lepidopteran insects. Phylogenetic reconstruction was conducted using the concatenated 13 protein-coding gene (PCG) sequences of 19 available butterfly species covering all the five butterfly families (Papilionidae, Nymphalidae, Peridae, Lycaenidae and Riodinidae). Both maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses highly supported the monophyly of Lycaenidae+Riodinidae, which was standing as the sister of Nymphalidae. In addition, we propose

Refining QTL with high-density SNP genotyping and whole genome sequence in three cattle breeds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sahana, Goutam; Guldbrandtsen, Bernt; Lund, Mogens Sandø

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association study was carried out in Nordic Holsteins, Nordic Red and Jersey breeds for functional traits using BovineHD Genotyping BreadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The association analyses were carried out using both linear mixed model approach and a Bayesian variable selection...... method. Principal components were used to account for population structure. The QTL segregating in all three breeds were selected and a few of the most significant ones were followed in further analyses. The polymorphisms in the identified QTL regions were imputed using 90 whole genome sequences...

Comparison of methods used to identify superior individuals in genomic selection in plant breeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhering, L L; Junqueira, V S; Peixoto, L A; Cruz, C D; Laviola, B G

2015-09-10

The aim of this study was to evaluate different methods used in genomic selection, and to verify those that select a higher proportion of individuals with superior genotypes. Thus, F2 populations of different sizes were simulated (100, 200, 500, and 1000 individuals) with 10 replications each. These consisted of 10 linkage groups (LG) of 100 cM each, containing 100 equally spaced markers per linkage group, of which 200 controlled the characteristics, defined as the 20 initials of each LG. Genetic and phenotypic values were simulated assuming binomial distribution of effects for each LG, and the absence of dominance. For phenotypic values, heritabilities of 20, 50, and 80% were considered. To compare methodologies, the analysis processing time, coefficient of coincidence (selection of 5, 10, and 20% of superior individuals), and Spearman correlation between true genetic values, and the genomic values predicted by each methodology were determined. Considering the processing time, the three methodologies were statistically different, rrBLUP was the fastest, and Bayesian LASSO was the slowest. Spearman correlation revealed that the rrBLUP and GBLUP methodologies were equivalent, and Bayesian LASSO provided the lowest correlation values. Similar results were obtained in coincidence variables among the individuals selected, in which Bayesian LASSO differed statistically and presented a lower value than the other methodologies. Therefore, for the scenarios evaluated, rrBLUP is the best methodology for the selection of genetically superior individuals.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

Genome-wide association of lipid-lowering response to statins in combined study populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mathew J Barber

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Statins effectively lower total and plasma LDL-cholesterol, but the magnitude of decrease varies among individuals. To identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contributing to this variation, we performed a combined analysis of genome-wide association (GWA results from three trials of statin efficacy.Bayesian and standard frequentist association analyses were performed on untreated and statin-mediated changes in LDL-cholesterol, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride on a total of 3932 subjects using data from three studies: Cholesterol and Pharmacogenetics (40 mg/day simvastatin, 6 weeks, Pravastatin/Inflammation CRP Evaluation (40 mg/day pravastatin, 24 weeks, and Treating to New Targets (10 mg/day atorvastatin, 8 weeks. Genotype imputation was used to maximize genomic coverage and to combine information across studies. Phenotypes were normalized within each study to account for systematic differences among studies, and fixed-effects combined analysis of the combined sample were performed to detect consistent effects across studies. Two SNP associations were assessed as having posterior probability greater than 50%, indicating that they were more likely than not to be genuinely associated with statin-mediated lipid response. SNP rs8014194, located within the CLMN gene on chromosome 14, was strongly associated with statin-mediated change in total cholesterol with an 84% probability by Bayesian analysis, and a p-value exceeding conventional levels of genome-wide significance by frequentist analysis (P = 1.8 x 10(-8. This SNP was less significantly associated with change in LDL-cholesterol (posterior probability = 0.16, P = 4.0 x 10(-6. Bayesian analysis also assigned a 51% probability that rs4420638, located in APOC1 and near APOE, was associated with change in LDL-cholesterol.Using combined GWA analysis from three clinical trials involving nearly 4,000 individuals treated with simvastatin, pravastatin, or atorvastatin, we

Sauropod dinosaurs evolved moderately sized genomes unrelated to body size.

Science.gov (United States)

Organ, Chris L; Brusatte, Stephen L; Stein, Koen

2009-12-22

Sauropodomorph dinosaurs include the largest land animals to have ever lived, some reaching up to 10 times the mass of an African elephant. Despite their status defining the upper range for body size in land animals, it remains unknown whether sauropodomorphs evolved larger-sized genomes than non-avian theropods, their sister taxon, or whether a relationship exists between genome size and body size in dinosaurs, two questions critical for understanding broad patterns of genome evolution in dinosaurs. Here we report inferences of genome size for 10 sauropodomorph taxa. The estimates are derived from a Bayesian phylogenetic generalized least squares approach that generates posterior distributions of regression models relating genome size to osteocyte lacunae volume in extant tetrapods. We estimate that the average genome size of sauropodomorphs was 2.02 pg (range of species means: 1.77-2.21 pg), a value in the upper range of extant birds (mean = 1.42 pg, range: 0.97-2.16 pg) and near the average for extant non-avian reptiles (mean = 2.24 pg, range: 1.05-5.44 pg). The results suggest that the variation in size and architecture of genomes in extinct dinosaurs was lower than the variation found in mammals. A substantial difference in genome size separates the two major clades within dinosaurs, Ornithischia (large genomes) and Saurischia (moderate to small genomes). We find no relationship between body size and estimated genome size in extinct dinosaurs, which suggests that neutral forces did not dominate the evolution of genome size in this group.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangdong Hu

Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

Model comparison on genomic predictions using high-density markers for different groups of bulls in the Nordic Holstein population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gao, Hongding; Su, Guosheng; Janss, Luc

2013-01-01

This study compared genomic predictions based on imputed high-density markers (~777,000) in the Nordic Holstein population using a genomic BLUP (GBLUP) model, 4 Bayesian exponential power models with different shape parameters (0.3, 0.5, 0.8, and 1.0) for the exponential power distribution...... relationship with the training population. Groupsmgs had both the sire and the maternal grandsire (MGS), Groupsire only had the sire, Groupmgs only had the MGS, and Groupnon had neither the sire nor the MGS in the training population. Reliability of DGV was measured as the squared correlation between DGV...... and DRP divided by the reliability of DRP for the bulls in validation data set. Unbiasedness of DGV was measured as the regression of DRP on DGV. The results indicated that DGV were more accurate and less biased for animals that were more related to the training population. In general, the Bayesian...

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Convergent functional genomics in addiction research - a translational approach to study candidate genes and gene networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Spanagel, Rainer

2013-01-01

Convergent functional genomics (CFG) is a translational methodology that integrates in a Bayesian fashion multiple lines of evidence from studies in human and animal models to get a better understanding of the genetics of a disease or pathological behavior. Here the integration of data sets that derive from forward genetics in animals and genetic association studies including genome wide association studies (GWAS) in humans is described for addictive behavior. The aim of forward genetics in animals and association studies in humans is to identify mutations (e.g. SNPs) that produce a certain phenotype; i.e. "from phenotype to genotype". Most powerful in terms of forward genetics is combined quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis and gene expression profiling in recombinant inbreed rodent lines or genetically selected animals for a specific phenotype, e.g. high vs. low drug consumption. By Bayesian scoring genomic information from forward genetics in animals is then combined with human GWAS data on a similar addiction-relevant phenotype. This integrative approach generates a robust candidate gene list that has to be functionally validated by means of reverse genetics in animals; i.e. "from genotype to phenotype". It is proposed that studying addiction relevant phenotypes and endophenotypes by this CFG approach will allow a better determination of the genetics of addictive behavior.

Complete mitochondrial genome of the Indian peafowl (Pavo cristatus), with phylogenetic analysis in phasianidae.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Tai-Cheng; Sha, Tao; Irwin, David M; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2015-01-01

Pavo cristatus, known as the Indian peafowl, is endemic to India and Sri Lanka and has been domesticated for its ornamental and food value. However, its phylogenetic status is still debated. Here, to clarify the phylogenetic status of P. cristatus within Phasianidae, we analyzed its mitochondrial genome (mtDNA). The complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome was determined using 34 pairs of primers. Our data show that the mtDNA genome of P. cristatus is 16,686 bp in length. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of P. cristatus was performed along with 22 complete mtDNA genomes belonging to other species in Phasianidae using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods, where Aythya americana and Anas platyrhynchos were used as outgroups. Our results show that P. critatus has its closest genetic affinity with Pavo muticus and belongs to clade that contains Gallus, Bambusicola and Francolinus.

Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

2008-01-01

We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

Accuracy of genomic selection for alfalfa biomass yield in different reference populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Annicchiarico, Paolo; Nazzicari, Nelson; Li, Xuehui; Wei, Yanling; Pecetti, Luciano; Brummer, E Charles

2015-12-01

Genomic selection based on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) data could accelerate alfalfa yield gains, if it displayed moderate ability to predict parent breeding values. Its interest would be enhanced by predicting ability also for germplasm/reference populations other than those for which it was defined. Predicting accuracy may be influenced by statistical models, SNP calling procedures and missing data imputation strategies. Landrace and variety material from two genetically-contrasting reference populations, i.e., 124 elite genotypes adapted to the Po Valley (sub-continental climate; PV population) and 154 genotypes adapted to Mediterranean-climate environments (Me population), were genotyped by GBS and phenotyped in separate environments for dry matter yield of their dense-planted half-sib progenies. Both populations showed no sub-population genetic structure. Predictive accuracy was higher by joint rather than separate SNP calling for the two data sets, and using random forest imputation of missing data. Highest accuracy was obtained using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for PV, and Ridge Regression BLUP and SVR for Me germplasm. Bayesian methods (Bayes A, Bayes B and Bayesian Lasso) tended to be less accurate. Random Forest Regression was the least accurate model. Accuracy attained about 0.35 for Me in the range of 0.30-0.50 missing data, and 0.32 for PV at 0.50 missing data, using at least 10,000 SNP markers. Cross-population predictions based on a smaller subset of common SNPs implied a relative loss of accuracy of about 25% for Me and 30% for PV. Genome-wide association analyses based on large subsets of M. truncatula-aligned markers revealed many SNPs with modest association with yield, and some genome areas hosting putative QTLs. A comparison of genomic vs. conventional selection for parent breeding value assuming 1-year vs. 5-year selection cycles, respectively, indicated over three-fold greater predicted yield gain per unit time for genomic selection

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

The genomic landscape at a late stage of stickleback speciation: High genomic divergence interspersed by small localized regions of introgression.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Ravinet

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Speciation is a continuous process and analysis of species pairs at different stages of divergence provides insight into how it unfolds. Previous genomic studies on young species pairs have revealed peaks of divergence and heterogeneous genomic differentiation. Yet less known is how localised peaks of differentiation progress to genome-wide divergence during the later stages of speciation in the presence of persistent gene flow. Spanning the speciation continuum, stickleback species pairs are ideal for investigating how genomic divergence builds up during speciation. However, attention has largely focused on young postglacial species pairs, with little knowledge of the genomic signatures of divergence and introgression in older stickleback systems. The Japanese stickleback species pair, composed of the Pacific Ocean three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus and the Japan Sea stickleback (G. nipponicus, which co-occur in the Japanese islands, is at a late stage of speciation. Divergence likely started well before the end of the last glacial period and crosses between Japan Sea females and Pacific Ocean males result in hybrid male sterility. Here we use coalescent analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation to show that the two species split approximately 0.68-1 million years ago but that they have continued to exchange genes at a low rate throughout divergence. Population genomic data revealed that, despite gene flow, a high level of genomic differentiation is maintained across the majority of the genome. However, we identified multiple, small regions of introgression, occurring mainly in areas of low recombination rate. Our results demonstrate that a high level of genome-wide divergence can establish in the face of persistent introgression and that gene flow can be localized to small genomic regions at the later stages of speciation with gene flow.

The genomic landscape at a late stage of stickleback speciation: High genomic divergence interspersed by small localized regions of introgression.

Science.gov (United States)

Ravinet, Mark; Yoshida, Kohta; Shigenobu, Shuji; Toyoda, Atsushi; Fujiyama, Asao; Kitano, Jun

2018-05-01

Speciation is a continuous process and analysis of species pairs at different stages of divergence provides insight into how it unfolds. Previous genomic studies on young species pairs have revealed peaks of divergence and heterogeneous genomic differentiation. Yet less known is how localised peaks of differentiation progress to genome-wide divergence during the later stages of speciation in the presence of persistent gene flow. Spanning the speciation continuum, stickleback species pairs are ideal for investigating how genomic divergence builds up during speciation. However, attention has largely focused on young postglacial species pairs, with little knowledge of the genomic signatures of divergence and introgression in older stickleback systems. The Japanese stickleback species pair, composed of the Pacific Ocean three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and the Japan Sea stickleback (G. nipponicus), which co-occur in the Japanese islands, is at a late stage of speciation. Divergence likely started well before the end of the last glacial period and crosses between Japan Sea females and Pacific Ocean males result in hybrid male sterility. Here we use coalescent analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation to show that the two species split approximately 0.68-1 million years ago but that they have continued to exchange genes at a low rate throughout divergence. Population genomic data revealed that, despite gene flow, a high level of genomic differentiation is maintained across the majority of the genome. However, we identified multiple, small regions of introgression, occurring mainly in areas of low recombination rate. Our results demonstrate that a high level of genome-wide divergence can establish in the face of persistent introgression and that gene flow can be localized to small genomic regions at the later stages of speciation with gene flow.

Complete mitochondrial genomes reveal phylogeny relationship and evolutionary history of the family Felidae.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, W Q; Zhang, M H

2013-09-03

Many mitochondrial DNA sequences are used to estimate phylogenetic relationships among animal taxa and perform molecular phylogenetic evolution analysis. With the continuous development of sequencing technology, numerous mitochondrial sequences have been released in public databases, especially complete mitochondrial DNA sequences. Using multiple sequences is better than using single sequences for phylogenetic analysis of animals because multiple sequences have sufficient information for evolutionary process reconstruction. Therefore, we performed phylogenetic analyses of 14 species of Felidae based on complete mitochondrial genome sequences, with Canis familiaris as an outgroup, using neighbor joining, maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony, and Bayesian inference methods. The consensus phylogenetic trees supported the monophyly of Felidae, and the family could be divided into 2 subfamilies, Felinae and Pantherinae. The genus Panthera and species tigris were also studied in detail. Meanwhile, the divergence of this family was estimated by phylogenetic analysis using the Bayesian method with a relaxed molecular clock, and the results shown were consistent with previous studies. In summary, the evolution of Felidae was reconstructed by phylogenetic analysis based on mitochondrial genome sequences. The described method may be broadly applicable for phylogenetic analyses of anima taxa.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

2013-06-15

Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prion Amplification and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Refine Detection of Prion Infection

Science.gov (United States)

Wyckoff, A. Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J.; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; Vercauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-01

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Prion amplification and hierarchical Bayesian modeling refine detection of prion infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Wyckoff, A Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; VerCauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark

2015-02-10

Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.

Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

2008-01-01

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

Population genomics of parallel adaptation in threespine stickleback using sequenced RAD tags.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul A Hohenlohe

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Next-generation sequencing technology provides novel opportunities for gathering genome-scale sequence data in natural populations, laying the empirical foundation for the evolving field of population genomics. Here we conducted a genome scan of nucleotide diversity and differentiation in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus. We used Illumina-sequenced RAD tags to identify and type over 45,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in each of 100 individuals from two oceanic and three freshwater populations. Overall estimates of genetic diversity and differentiation among populations confirm the biogeographic hypothesis that large panmictic oceanic populations have repeatedly given rise to phenotypically divergent freshwater populations. Genomic regions exhibiting signatures of both balancing and divergent selection were remarkably consistent across multiple, independently derived populations, indicating that replicate parallel phenotypic evolution in stickleback may be occurring through extensive, parallel genetic evolution at a genome-wide scale. Some of these genomic regions co-localize with previously identified QTL for stickleback phenotypic variation identified using laboratory mapping crosses. In addition, we have identified several novel regions showing parallel differentiation across independent populations. Annotation of these regions revealed numerous genes that are candidates for stickleback phenotypic evolution and will form the basis of future genetic analyses in this and other organisms. This study represents the first high-density SNP-based genome scan of genetic diversity and differentiation for populations of threespine stickleback in the wild. These data illustrate the complementary nature of laboratory crosses and population genomic scans by confirming the adaptive significance of previously identified genomic regions, elucidating the particular evolutionary and demographic history of such

Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

OpenAIRE

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

2006-01-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

 Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

Genome-wide association scan shows genetic variants in the FTO gene are associated with obesity-related traits.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelo Scuteri

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The obesity epidemic is responsible for a substantial economic burden in developed countries and is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The disease is the result not only of several environmental risk factors, but also of genetic predisposition. To take advantage of recent advances in gene-mapping technology, we executed a genome-wide association scan to identify genetic variants associated with obesity-related quantitative traits in the genetically isolated population of Sardinia. Initial analysis suggested that several SNPs in the FTO and PFKP genes were associated with increased BMI, hip circumference, and weight. Within the FTO gene, rs9930506 showed the strongest association with BMI (p = 8.6 x10(-7, hip circumference (p = 3.4 x 10(-8, and weight (p = 9.1 x 10(-7. In Sardinia, homozygotes for the rare "G" allele of this SNP (minor allele frequency = 0.46 were 1.3 BMI units heavier than homozygotes for the common "A" allele. Within the PFKP gene, rs6602024 showed very strong association with BMI (p = 4.9 x 10(-6. Homozygotes for the rare "A" allele of this SNP (minor allele frequency = 0.12 were 1.8 BMI units heavier than homozygotes for the common "G" allele. To replicate our findings, we genotyped these two SNPs in the GenNet study. In European Americans (N = 1,496 and in Hispanic Americans (N = 839, we replicated significant association between rs9930506 in the FTO gene and BMI (p-value for meta-analysis of European American and Hispanic American follow-up samples, p = 0.001, weight (p = 0.001, and hip circumference (p = 0.0005. We did not replicate association between rs6602024 and obesity-related traits in the GenNet sample, although we found that in European Americans, Hispanic Americans, and African Americans, homozygotes for the rare "A" allele were, on average, 1.0-3.0 BMI units heavier than homozygotes for the more common "G" allele. In summary, we have completed a whole genome-association scan for

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

A Genome Scan for Quantitative Trait Loci Affecting Average Daily ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

reviewer

Sari, P.O. Box -578, Iran .... (2015) identified one SNP with genome wide significance effect within SYNE1 gene on ..... analysis of thirty one production, health, reproduction and body conformation traits in contemporary US Holstein cows. ... Problems involved in breeding for efficiency of food utilization. Proc .... 131, 210-216.

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Bayesian assignment of gene ontology terms to gene expression experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Sykacek, P.

2012-01-01

Motivation: Gene expression assays allow for genome scale analyses of molecular biological mechanisms. State-of-the-art data analysis provides lists of involved genes, either by calculating significance levels of mRNA abundance or by Bayesian assessments of gene activity. A common problem of such approaches is the difficulty of interpreting the biological implication of the resulting gene lists. This lead to an increased interest in methods for inferring high-level biological information. A common approach for representing high level information is by inferring gene ontology (GO) terms which may be attributed to the expression data experiment. Results: This article proposes a probabilistic model for GO term inference. Modelling assumes that gene annotations to GO terms are available and gene involvement in an experiment is represented by a posterior probabilities over gene-specific indicator variables. Such probability measures result from many Bayesian approaches for expression data analysis. The proposed model combines these indicator probabilities in a probabilistic fashion and provides a probabilistic GO term assignment as a result. Experiments on synthetic and microarray data suggest that advantages of the proposed probabilistic GO term inference over statistical test-based approaches are in particular evident for sparsely annotated GO terms and in situations of large uncertainty about gene activity. Provided that appropriate annotations exist, the proposed approach is easily applied to inferring other high level assignments like pathways. Availability: Source code under GPL license is available from the author. Contact: peter.sykacek@boku.ac.at PMID:22962488

Bayesian assignment of gene ontology terms to gene expression experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Sykacek, P

2012-09-15

Gene expression assays allow for genome scale analyses of molecular biological mechanisms. State-of-the-art data analysis provides lists of involved genes, either by calculating significance levels of mRNA abundance or by Bayesian assessments of gene activity. A common problem of such approaches is the difficulty of interpreting the biological implication of the resulting gene lists. This lead to an increased interest in methods for inferring high-level biological information. A common approach for representing high level information is by inferring gene ontology (GO) terms which may be attributed to the expression data experiment. This article proposes a probabilistic model for GO term inference. Modelling assumes that gene annotations to GO terms are available and gene involvement in an experiment is represented by a posterior probabilities over gene-specific indicator variables. Such probability measures result from many Bayesian approaches for expression data analysis. The proposed model combines these indicator probabilities in a probabilistic fashion and provides a probabilistic GO term assignment as a result. Experiments on synthetic and microarray data suggest that advantages of the proposed probabilistic GO term inference over statistical test-based approaches are in particular evident for sparsely annotated GO terms and in situations of large uncertainty about gene activity. Provided that appropriate annotations exist, the proposed approach is easily applied to inferring other high level assignments like pathways. Source code under GPL license is available from the author. peter.sykacek@boku.ac.at.

Modeling heterogeneous (co)variances from adjacent-SNP groups improves genomic prediction for milk protein composition traits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gebreyesus, Grum; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Buitenhuis, Albert Johannes

2017-01-01

Accurate genomic prediction requires a large reference population, which is problematic for traits that are expensive to measure. Traits related to milk protein composition are not routinely recorded due to costly procedures and are considered to be controlled by a few quantitative trait loci...... of large effect. The amount of variation explained may vary between regions leading to heterogeneous (co)variance patterns across the genome. Genomic prediction models that can efficiently take such heterogeneity of (co)variances into account can result in improved prediction reliability. In this study, we...... developed and implemented novel univariate and bivariate Bayesian prediction models, based on estimates of heterogeneous (co)variances for genome segments (BayesAS). Available data consisted of milk protein composition traits measured on cows and de-regressed proofs of total protein yield derived for bulls...

Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

2017-06-01

Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glen Meeden

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Dynamics of genome rearrangement in bacterial populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aaron E Darling

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Genome structure variation has profound impacts on phenotype in organisms ranging from microbes to humans, yet little is known about how natural selection acts on genome arrangement. Pathogenic bacteria such as Yersinia pestis, which causes bubonic and pneumonic plague, often exhibit a high degree of genomic rearrangement. The recent availability of several Yersinia genomes offers an unprecedented opportunity to study the evolution of genome structure and arrangement. We introduce a set of statistical methods to study patterns of rearrangement in circular chromosomes and apply them to the Yersinia. We constructed a multiple alignment of eight Yersinia genomes using Mauve software to identify 78 conserved segments that are internally free from genome rearrangement. Based on the alignment, we applied Bayesian statistical methods to infer the phylogenetic inversion history of Yersinia. The sampling of genome arrangement reconstructions contains seven parsimonious tree topologies, each having different histories of 79 inversions. Topologies with a greater number of inversions also exist, but were sampled less frequently. The inversion phylogenies agree with results suggested by SNP patterns. We then analyzed reconstructed inversion histories to identify patterns of rearrangement. We confirm an over-representation of "symmetric inversions"-inversions with endpoints that are equally distant from the origin of chromosomal replication. Ancestral genome arrangements demonstrate moderate preference for replichore balance in Yersinia. We found that all inversions are shorter than expected under a neutral model, whereas inversions acting within a single replichore are much shorter than expected. We also found evidence for a canonical configuration of the origin and terminus of replication. Finally, breakpoint reuse analysis reveals that inversions with endpoints proximal to the origin of DNA replication are nearly three times more frequent. Our findings

Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

Signatures of selection in the Iberian honey bee (Apis mellifera iberiensis) revealed by a genome scan analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Chávez-Galarza, Julio; Henriques, Dora; Johnston, J Spencer; Azevedo, João C; Patton, John C; Muñoz, Irene; De la Rúa, Pilar; Pinto, M Alice

2013-12-01

Understanding the genetic mechanisms of adaptive population divergence is one of the most fundamental endeavours in evolutionary biology and is becoming increasingly important as it will allow predictions about how organisms will respond to global environmental crisis. This is particularly important for the honey bee, a species of unquestionable ecological and economical importance that has been exposed to increasing human-mediated selection pressures. Here, we conducted a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based genome scan in honey bees collected across an environmental gradient in Iberia and used four FST -based outlier tests to identify genomic regions exhibiting signatures of selection. Additionally, we analysed associations between genetic and environmental data for the identification of factors that might be correlated or act as selective pressures. With these approaches, 4.4% (17 of 383) of outlier loci were cross-validated by four FST -based methods, and 8.9% (34 of 383) were cross-validated by at least three methods. Of the 34 outliers, 15 were found to be strongly associated with one or more environmental variables. Further support for selection, provided by functional genomic information, was particularly compelling for SNP outliers mapped to different genes putatively involved in the same function such as vision, xenobiotic detoxification and innate immune response. This study enabled a more rigorous consideration of selection as the underlying cause of diversity patterns in Iberian honey bees, representing an important first step towards the identification of polymorphisms implicated in local adaptation and possibly in response to recent human-mediated environmental changes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An automated annotation tool for genomic DNA sequences using

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Genomic sequence data are often available well before the annotated sequence is published. We present a method for analysis of genomic DNA to identify coding sequences using the GeneScan algorithm and characterize these resultant sequences by BLAST. The routines are used to develop a system for automated ...

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Identification of prophages in bacterial genomes by dinucleotide relative abundance difference.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K V Srividhya

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prophages are integrated viral forms in bacterial genomes that have been found to contribute to interstrain genetic variability. Many virulence-associated genes are reported to be prophage encoded. Present computational methods to detect prophages are either by identifying possible essential proteins such as integrases or by an extension of this technique, which involves identifying a region containing proteins similar to those occurring in prophages. These methods suffer due to the problem of low sequence similarity at the protein level, which suggests that a nucleotide based approach could be useful. METHODOLOGY: Earlier dinucleotide relative abundance (DRA have been used to identify regions, which deviate from the neighborhood areas, in genomes. We have used the difference in the dinucleotide relative abundance (DRAD between the bacterial and prophage DNA to aid location of DNA stretches that could be of prophage origin in bacterial genomes. Prophage sequences which deviate from bacterial regions in their dinucleotide frequencies are detected by scanning bacterial genome sequences. The method was validated using a subset of genomes with prophage data from literature reports. A web interface for prophage scan based on this method is available at http://bicmku.in:8082/prophagedb/dra.html. Two hundred bacterial genomes which do not have annotated prophages have been scanned for prophage regions using this method. CONCLUSIONS: The relative dinucleotide distribution difference helps detect prophage regions in genome sequences. The usefulness of this method is seen in the identification of 461 highly probable loci pertaining to prophages which have not been annotated so earlier. This work emphasizes the need to extend the efforts to detect and annotate prophage elements in genome sequences.

Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Williamson

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Probability biases as Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre; C. R. Martins

2006-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Bayesian psychometric scaling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

2015-01-01

In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

OpenAIRE

Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

2016-01-01

We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...

Genomics of end-Pleistocene population replacement in a small mammal

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kotlík, Petr; Marková, Silvia; Konczal, M.; Babik, W.; Searle, J. B.

2018-01-01

Roč. 285, č. 1872 (2018), č. článku 20172624. ISSN 0962-8452 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP506/11/1872; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-03248S; GA MŠk(CZ) LH15255; GA MŠk EF15_003/0000460 Institutional support: RVO:67985904 Keywords : approximate Bayesian computation * Clethrionomys glareolus * genome admixture Subject RIV: EA - Cell Biology OBOR OECD: Biology (theoretical, mathematical, thermal, cryobiology, biological rhythm), Evolutionary biology Impact factor: 4.940, year: 2016

Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

2018-01-01

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

2014-01-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Allele coding in genomic evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christensen Ole F

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic data are used in animal breeding to assist genetic evaluation. Several models to estimate genomic breeding values have been studied. In general, two approaches have been used. One approach estimates the marker effects first and then, genomic breeding values are obtained by summing marker effects. In the second approach, genomic breeding values are estimated directly using an equivalent model with a genomic relationship matrix. Allele coding is the method chosen to assign values to the regression coefficients in the statistical model. A common allele coding is zero for the homozygous genotype of the first allele, one for the heterozygote, and two for the homozygous genotype for the other allele. Another common allele coding changes these regression coefficients by subtracting a value from each marker such that the mean of regression coefficients is zero within each marker. We call this centered allele coding. This study considered effects of different allele coding methods on inference. Both marker-based and equivalent models were considered, and restricted maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods were used in inference. Results Theoretical derivations showed that parameter estimates and estimated marker effects in marker-based models are the same irrespective of the allele coding, provided that the model has a fixed general mean. For the equivalent models, the same results hold, even though different allele coding methods lead to different genomic relationship matrices. Calculated genomic breeding values are independent of allele coding when the estimate of the general mean is included into the values. Reliabilities of estimated genomic breeding values calculated using elements of the inverse of the coefficient matrix depend on the allele coding because different allele coding methods imply different models. Finally, allele coding affects the mixing of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, with the centered coding being

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

Long-term response to genomic selection: effects of estimation method and reference population structure for different genetic architectures.

Science.gov (United States)

Bastiaansen, John W M; Coster, Albart; Calus, Mario P L; van Arendonk, Johan A M; Bovenhuis, Henk

2012-01-24

Genomic selection has become an important tool in the genetic improvement of animals and plants. The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of breeding value estimation method, reference population structure, and trait genetic architecture, on long-term response to genomic selection without updating marker effects. Three methods were used to estimate genomic breeding values: a BLUP method with relationships estimated from genome-wide markers (GBLUP), a Bayesian method, and a partial least squares regression method (PLSR). A shallow (individuals from one generation) or deep reference population (individuals from five generations) was used with each method. The effects of the different selection approaches were compared under four different genetic architectures for the trait under selection. Selection was based on one of the three genomic breeding values, on pedigree BLUP breeding values, or performed at random. Selection continued for ten generations. Differences in long-term selection response were small. For a genetic architecture with a very small number of three to four quantitative trait loci (QTL), the Bayesian method achieved a response that was 0.05 to 0.1 genetic standard deviation higher than other methods in generation 10. For genetic architectures with approximately 30 to 300 QTL, PLSR (shallow reference) or GBLUP (deep reference) had an average advantage of 0.2 genetic standard deviation over the Bayesian method in generation 10. GBLUP resulted in 0.6% and 0.9% less inbreeding than PLSR and BM and on average a one third smaller reduction of genetic variance. Responses in early generations were greater with the shallow reference population while long-term response was not affected by reference population structure. The ranking of estimation methods was different with than without selection. Under selection, applying GBLUP led to lower inbreeding and a smaller reduction of genetic variance while a similar response to selection was

Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Peter

2014-01-01

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2014-01-06

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

2014-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

2013-01-01

representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

Fluorescence in situ hybridization on human metaphase chromosomes detected by near-field scanning optical microscopy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moers, M.H.P.; Moers, M.H.P.; Kalle, W.H.J.; Kalle, W.H.J.; Ruiter, A.G.T.; Wiegant, J.C.A.G.; Raap, A.K.; Greve, Jan; de Grooth, B.G.; van Hulst, N.F.

1996-01-01

Fluorescence in situ hybridization o­n human metaphase chromosomes is detected by near-field scanning optical microscopy. This combination of cytochemical and scanning probe techniques enables the localization and identification of several fluorescently labelled genomic DNA fragments o­n a single

A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >

3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

2000-01-01

We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopec, S.

1994-01-01

Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

SNP detection for massively parallel whole-genome resequencing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Ruiqiang; Li, Yingrui; Fang, Xiaodong

2009-01-01

-genome or target region resequencing. Here, we have developed a consensus-calling and SNP-detection method for sequencing-by-synthesis Illumina Genome Analyzer technology. We designed this method by carefully considering the data quality, alignment, and experimental errors common to this technology. All...... of this information was integrated into a single quality score for each base under Bayesian theory to measure the accuracy of consensus calling. We tested this methodology using a large-scale human resequencing data set of 36x coverage and assembled a high-quality nonrepetitive consensus sequence for 92.......25% of the diploid autosomes and 88.07% of the haploid X chromosome. Comparison of the consensus sequence with Illumina human 1M BeadChip genotyped alleles from the same DNA sample showed that 98.6% of the 37,933 genotyped alleles on the X chromosome and 98% of 999,981 genotyped alleles on autosomes were covered...

Genomic breeding value estimation using nonparametric additive regression models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solberg Trygve

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Genomic selection refers to the use of genomewide dense markers for breeding value estimation and subsequently for selection. The main challenge of genomic breeding value estimation is the estimation of many effects from a limited number of observations. Bayesian methods have been proposed to successfully cope with these challenges. As an alternative class of models, non- and semiparametric models were recently introduced. The present study investigated the ability of nonparametric additive regression models to predict genomic breeding values. The genotypes were modelled for each marker or pair of flanking markers (i.e. the predictors separately. The nonparametric functions for the predictors were estimated simultaneously using additive model theory, applying a binomial kernel. The optimal degree of smoothing was determined by bootstrapping. A mutation-drift-balance simulation was carried out. The breeding values of the last generation (genotyped was predicted using data from the next last generation (genotyped and phenotyped. The results show moderate to high accuracies of the predicted breeding values. A determination of predictor specific degree of smoothing increased the accuracy.

The effect of genealogy-based haplotypes on genomic prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Edriss, Vahid; Fernando, Rohan L.; Su, Guosheng

2013-01-01

on haplotypes instead of regression on individual markers. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction using haplotypes based on local genealogy information. Methods A total of 4429 Danish Holstein bulls were genotyped with the 50K SNP chip. Haplotypes were constructed using...... local genealogical trees. Effects of haplotype covariates were estimated with two types of prediction models: (1) assuming that effects had the same distribution for all haplotype covariates, i.e. the GBLUP method and (2) assuming that a large proportion (pi) of the haplotype covariates had zero effect......, i.e. a Bayesian mixture method. Results About 7.5 times more covariate effects were estimated when fitting haplotypes based on local genealogical trees compared to fitting individuals markers. Genealogy-based haplotype clustering slightly increased the accuracy of genomic prediction and, in some...

Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alignment-free comparative genomic screen for structured RNAs using coarse-grained secondary structure dot plots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kato, Yuki; Gorodkin, Jan; Havgaard, Jakob Hull

2017-01-01

. Methods: Here we present a fast and efficient method, DotcodeR, for detecting structurally similar RNAs in genomic sequences by comparing their corresponding coarse-grained secondary structure dot plots at string level. This allows us to perform an all-against-all scan of all window pairs from two genomes...... without alignment. Results: Our computational experiments with simulated data and real chromosomes demonstrate that the presented method has good sensitivity. Conclusions: DotcodeR can be useful as a pre-filter in a genomic comparative scan for structured RNAs....

Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

2013-10-01

Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Pan-genome and phylogeny of Bacillus cereus sensu lato.

Science.gov (United States)

Bazinet, Adam L

2017-08-02

Bacillus cereus sensu lato (s. l.) is an ecologically diverse bacterial group of medical and agricultural significance. In this study, I use publicly available genomes and novel bioinformatic workflows to characterize the B. cereus s. l. pan-genome and perform the largest phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of this group to date in terms of the number of genes and taxa included. With these fundamental data in hand, I identify genes associated with particular phenotypic traits (i.e., "pan-GWAS" analysis), and quantify the degree to which taxa sharing common attributes are phylogenetically clustered. A rapid k-mer based approach (Mash) was used to create reduced representations of selected Bacillus genomes, and a fast distance-based phylogenetic analysis of this data (FastME) was performed to determine which species should be included in B. cereus s. l. The complete genomes of eight B. cereus s. l. species were annotated de novo with Prokka, and these annotations were used by Roary to produce the B. cereus s. l. pan-genome. Scoary was used to associate gene presence and absence patterns with various phenotypes. The orthologous protein sequence clusters produced by Roary were filtered and used to build HaMStR databases of gene models that were used in turn to construct phylogenetic data matrices. Phylogenetic analyses used RAxML, DendroPy, ClonalFrameML, PAUP*, and SplitsTree. Bayesian model-based population genetic analysis assigned taxa to clusters using hierBAPS. The genealogical sorting index was used to quantify the phylogenetic clustering of taxa sharing common attributes. The B. cereus s. l. pan-genome currently consists of ≈60,000 genes, ≈600 of which are "core" (common to at least 99% of taxa sampled). Pan-GWAS analysis revealed genes associated with phenotypes such as isolation source, oxygen requirement, and ability to cause diseases such as anthrax or food poisoning. Extensive phylogenetic analyses using an unprecedented amount of data

Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

CERN Document Server

Kruschke, John K

2011-01-01

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

2000-01-01

A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Genome-Wide Association Mapping and Genomic Selection for Alfalfa (Medicago sativa) Forage Quality Traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Biazzi, Elisa; Nazzicari, Nelson; Pecetti, Luciano; Brummer, E Charles; Palmonari, Alberto; Tava, Aldo; Annicchiarico, Paolo

2017-01-01

Genetic progress for forage quality has been poor in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), the most-grown forage legume worldwide. This study aimed at exploring opportunities for marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection of forage quality traits based on breeding values of parent plants. Some 154 genotypes from a broadly-based reference population were genotyped by genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS), and phenotyped for leaf-to-stem ratio, leaf and stem contents of protein, neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent lignin (ADL), and leaf and stem NDF digestibility after 24 hours (NDFD), of their dense-planted half-sib progenies in three growing conditions (summer harvest, full irrigation; summer harvest, suspended irrigation; autumn harvest). Trait-marker analyses were performed on progeny values averaged over conditions, owing to modest germplasm × condition interaction. Genomic selection exploited 11,450 polymorphic SNP markers, whereas a subset of 8,494 M. truncatula-aligned markers were used for a genome-wide association study (GWAS). GWAS confirmed the polygenic control of quality traits and, in agreement with phenotypic correlations, indicated substantially different genetic control of a given trait in stems and leaves. It detected several SNPs in different annotated genes that were highly linked to stem protein content. Also, it identified a small genomic region on chromosome 8 with high concentration of annotated genes associated with leaf ADL, including one gene probably involved in the lignin pathway. Three genomic selection models, i.e., Ridge-regression BLUP, Bayes B and Bayesian Lasso, displayed similar prediction accuracy, whereas SVR-lin was less accurate. Accuracy values were moderate (0.3-0.4) for stem NDFD and leaf protein content, modest for leaf ADL and NDFD, and low to very low for the other traits. Along with previous results for the same germplasm set, this study indicates that GBS data can be exploited to improve both quality traits

Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

CERN Document Server

Candy, James V

2016-01-01

This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

OpenAIRE

Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

2007-01-01

URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

KAUST Repository

Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2013-01-01

A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

Using the Pareto principle in genome-wide breeding value estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xijiang; Meuwissen, Theo H E

2011-11-01

Genome-wide breeding value (GWEBV) estimation methods can be classified based on the prior distribution assumptions of marker effects. Genome-wide BLUP methods assume a normal prior distribution for all markers with a constant variance, and are computationally fast. In Bayesian methods, more flexible prior distributions of SNP effects are applied that allow for very large SNP effects although most are small or even zero, but these prior distributions are often also computationally demanding as they rely on Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling. In this study, we adopted the Pareto principle to weight available marker loci, i.e., we consider that x% of the loci explain (100 - x)% of the total genetic variance. Assuming this principle, it is also possible to define the variances of the prior distribution of the 'big' and 'small' SNP. The relatively few large SNP explain a large proportion of the genetic variance and the majority of the SNP show small effects and explain a minor proportion of the genetic variance. We name this method MixP, where the prior distribution is a mixture of two normal distributions, i.e. one with a big variance and one with a small variance. Simulation results, using a real Norwegian Red cattle pedigree, show that MixP is at least as accurate as the other methods in all studied cases. This method also reduces the hyper-parameters of the prior distribution from 2 (proportion and variance of SNP with big effects) to 1 (proportion of SNP with big effects), assuming the overall genetic variance is known. The mixture of normal distribution prior made it possible to solve the equations iteratively, which greatly reduced computation loads by two orders of magnitude. In the era of marker density reaching million(s) and whole-genome sequence data, MixP provides a computationally feasible Bayesian method of analysis.

Genomic futures of prenatal screening: ethical reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Dondorp, W J; Page-Christiaens, G C M L; de Wert, G M W R

2016-05-01

The practice of prenatal screening is undergoing important changes as a result of the introduction of genomic testing technologies at different stages of the screening trajectory. It is expected that eventually it will become possible to routinely obtain a comprehensive 'genome scan' of all fetuses. Although this will still take several years, there are clear continuities between present developments and this future scenario. As this review shows, behind the still limited scope of screening for common aneuploidies, a rapid widening of the range of conditions tested for is already taking shape at the invasive testing stage. But the continuities are not just technical; they are also ethical. If screening for Down's syndrome is a matter of providing autonomous reproductive choice, then why would providing the choice to have a full fetal genome scan be something entirely different? There is a clear need for a sustainable normative framework that will have to answer three challenges: the indeterminateness of the autonomy paradigm, the need to acknowledge the future child as an interested stakeholder, and the prospect of broad-scope genomic prenatal screening with a double purpose: autonomy and prevention. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

A Genome-Wide Methylation Study of Severe Vitamin D Deficiency in African American Adolescents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Haidong; Wang, Xiaoling; Shi, Huidong; Su, Shaoyong; Harshfield, Gregory A.; Gutin, Bernard; Snieder, Harold; Dong, Yanbin

Objectives To test the hypothesis that changes in DNA methylation are involved in vitamin D deficiency-related immune cell regulation using an unbiased genome-wide approach combined with a genomic and epigenomic integrative approach. Study design We performed a genome-wide methylation scan using the

Genomic signature of successful colonization of Eurasia by the allopolyploid shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa-pastoris).

Science.gov (United States)

Cornille, A; Salcedo, A; Kryvokhyzha, D; Glémin, S; Holm, K; Wright, S I; Lascoux, M

2016-01-01

Polyploidization is a dominant feature of flowering plant evolution. However, detailed genomic analyses of the interpopulation diversification of polyploids following genome duplication are still in their infancy, mainly because of methodological limits, both in terms of sequencing and computational analyses. The shepherd's purse (Capsella bursa-pastoris) is one of the most common weed species in the world. It is highly self-fertilizing, and recent genomic data indicate that it is an allopolyploid, resulting from hybridization between the ancestors of the diploid species Capsella grandiflora and Capsella orientalis. Here, we investigated the genomic diversity of C. bursa-pastoris, its population structure and demographic history, following allopolyploidization in Eurasia. To that end, we genotyped 261 C. bursa-pastoris accessions spread across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, using genotyping-by-sequencing, leading to a total of 4274 SNPs after quality control. Bayesian clustering analyses revealed three distinct genetic clusters in Eurasia: one cluster grouping samples from Western Europe and Southeastern Siberia, the second one centred on Eastern Asia and the third one in the Middle East. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) supported the hypothesis that C. bursa-pastoris underwent a typical colonization history involving low gene flow among colonizing populations, likely starting from the Middle East towards Europe and followed by successive human-mediated expansions into Eastern Asia. Altogether, these findings bring new insights into the recent multistage colonization history of the allotetraploid C. bursa-pastoris and highlight ABC and genotyping-by-sequencing data as promising but still challenging tools to infer demographic histories of selfing allopolyploids. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

2018-01-01

This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

Complete chloroplast genome sequence of Elodea canadensis and comparative analyses with other monocot plastid genomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Huotari, Tea; Korpelainen, Helena

2012-10-15

Elodea canadensis is an aquatic angiosperm native to North America. It has attracted great attention due to its invasive nature when transported to new areas in its non-native range. We have determined the complete nucleotide sequence of the chloroplast (cp) genome of Elodea. Taxonomically Elodea is a basal monocot, and only few monocot cp genomes representing early lineages of monocots have been sequenced so far. The genome is a circular double-stranded DNA molecule 156,700 bp in length, and has a typical structure with large (LSC 86,194 bp) and small (SSC 17,810 bp) single-copy regions separated by a pair of inverted repeats (IRs 26,348 bp each). The Elodea cp genome contains 113 unique genes and 16 duplicated genes in the IR regions. A comparative analysis showed that the gene order and organization of the Elodea cp genome is almost identical to that of Amborella trichopoda, a basal angiosperm. The structure of IRs in Elodea is unique among monocot species with the whole cp genome sequenced. In Elodea and another monocot Lemna minor the borders between IRs and LSC are located upstream of rps 19 gene and downstream of trnH-GUG gene, while in most monocots, IR has extended to include both trnH and rps 19 genes. A phylogenetic analysis conducted using Bayesian method, based on the DNA sequences of 81 chloroplast genes from 17 monocot taxa provided support for the placement of Elodea together with Lemna as a basal monocot and the next diverging lineage of monocots after Acorales. In comparison with other monocots, the Elodea cp genome has gone through only few rearrangements or gene losses. IR of Elodea has a unique structure among the monocot species studied so far as its structure is similar to that of a basal angiosperm Amborella. This result together with phylogenetic analyses supports the placement of Elodea as a basal monocot to the next diverging lineage of monocots after Acorales. So far, only few cp genomes representing early lineages of monocots have been

Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

2017-08-07

The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

Leptospira species molecular epidemiology in the genomic era.

Science.gov (United States)

Caimi, K; Repetto, S A; Varni, V; Ruybal, P

2017-10-01

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease which global burden is increasing often related to climatic change. Hundreds of whole genome sequences from worldwide isolates of Leptospira spp. are available nowadays, together with online tools that permit to assign MLST sequence types (STs) directly from raw sequence data. In this work we have applied R7L-MLST to near 500 genomes and strains collection globally distributed. All 10 pathogenic species as well as intermediate were typed using this MLST scheme. The correlation observed between STs and serogroups in our previous work, is still satisfied with this higher dataset sustaining the implementation of MLST to assist serological classification as a complementary approach. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of concatenated sequences from R7-MLST loci allowed us to resolve taxonomic inconsistencies but also showed that events such as recombination, gene conversion or lateral gene transfer played an important role in the evolution of Leptospira genus. Whole genome sequencing allows us to contribute with suitable epidemiologic information useful to apply in the design of control strategies and also in diagnostic methods for this illness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

2011-01-01

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berry, Donald A

1996-01-01

...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lo, Albert Y.

1993-01-01

Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

Defining and Evaluating a Core Genome Multilocus Sequence Typing Scheme for Genome-Wide Typing of Clostridium difficile.

Science.gov (United States)

Bletz, Stefan; Janezic, Sandra; Harmsen, Dag; Rupnik, Maja; Mellmann, Alexander

2018-06-01

Clostridium difficile , recently renamed Clostridioides difficile , is the most common cause of antibiotic-associated nosocomial gastrointestinal infections worldwide. To differentiate endogenous infections and transmission events, highly discriminatory subtyping is necessary. Today, methods based on whole-genome sequencing data are increasingly used to subtype bacterial pathogens; however, frequently a standardized methodology and typing nomenclature are missing. Here we report a core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) approach developed for C. difficile Initially, we determined the breadth of the C. difficile population based on all available MLST sequence types with Bayesian inference (BAPS). The resulting BAPS partitions were used in combination with C. difficile clade information to select representative isolates that were subsequently used to define cgMLST target genes. Finally, we evaluated the novel cgMLST scheme with genomes from 3,025 isolates. BAPS grouping ( n = 6 groups) together with the clade information led to a total of 11 representative isolates that were included for cgMLST definition and resulted in 2,270 cgMLST genes that were present in all isolates. Overall, 2,184 to 2,268 cgMLST targets were detected in the genome sequences of 70 outbreak-associated and reference strains, and on average 99.3% cgMLST targets (1,116 to 2,270 targets) were present in 2,954 genomes downloaded from the NCBI database, underlining the representativeness of the cgMLST scheme. Moreover, reanalyzing different cluster scenarios with cgMLST were concordant to published single nucleotide variant analyses. In conclusion, the novel cgMLST is representative for the whole C. difficile population, is highly discriminatory in outbreak situations, and provides a unique nomenclature facilitating interlaboratory exchange. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Bayesian Geostatistical Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

2006-01-01

locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I : Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Marsman, M.; Jamil, T.; Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Love, J.; Selker, R.; Gronau, Q.F.; Šmíra, M.; Epskamp, S.; Matzke, D.; Rouder, J.N.; Morey, R.D.

2018-01-01

Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete

A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

Science.gov (United States)

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

2011-09-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

2018-04-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

StarScan: a web server for scanning small RNA targets from degradome sequencing data.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shun; Li, Jun-Hao; Wu, Jie; Zhou, Ke-Ren; Zhou, Hui; Yang, Jian-Hua; Qu, Liang-Hu

2015-07-01

Endogenous small non-coding RNAs (sRNAs), including microRNAs, PIWI-interacting RNAs and small interfering RNAs, play important gene regulatory roles in animals and plants by pairing to the protein-coding and non-coding transcripts. However, computationally assigning these various sRNAs to their regulatory target genes remains technically challenging. Recently, a high-throughput degradome sequencing method was applied to identify biologically relevant sRNA cleavage sites. In this study, an integrated web-based tool, StarScan (sRNA target Scan), was developed for scanning sRNA targets using degradome sequencing data from 20 species. Given a sRNA sequence from plants or animals, our web server performs an ultrafast and exhaustive search for potential sRNA-target interactions in annotated and unannotated genomic regions. The interactions between small RNAs and target transcripts were further evaluated using a novel tool, alignScore. A novel tool, degradomeBinomTest, was developed to quantify the abundance of degradome fragments located at the 9-11th nucleotide from the sRNA 5' end. This is the first web server for discovering potential sRNA-mediated RNA cleavage events in plants and animals, which affords mechanistic insights into the regulatory roles of sRNAs. The StarScan web server is available at http://mirlab.sysu.edu.cn/starscan/. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Mitochondrial genome and phylogenetic position of the sliteye shark Loxodon macrorhinus.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Junjie; Chen, Hao; Lin, Lingling; Ai, Weiming; Chen, Xiao

2016-11-01

The sliteye shark Loxodon macrorhinus is the only member of the genus Loxodon in the family Carcharhinidae. In this study, we first present the complete mitochondrial genome of L. macrorhinus and determine its phylogenetic position within Carcharhinidae based on relative mitogenomes. The mitochondrial genome was 16 702 bp in length with the typical gene order in vertebrates. The overall base composition of the H-strand was 31.7% A, 25.8% C, 13.1% G, and 29.4% T. Two start codons (ATG and GTG) and three stop codons (TAG, AGG, and TAA/T) were found in the protein-coding genes. The tRNA genes ranged from 67 bp to 75 bp. Loxodon macrorhinus was placed as sister to the genus Scoliodon in the Bayesian tree.

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

Bayesian Dark Knowledge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

Bayesian grid matching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

2003-01-01

A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

Patterns of positive selection in six Mammalian genomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kosiol, Carolin; Vinar, Tomás; da Fonseca, Rute R

2008-01-01

Genome-wide scans for positively selected genes (PSGs) in mammals have provided insight into the dynamics of genome evolution, the genetic basis of differences between species, and the functions of individual genes. However, previous scans have been limited in power and accuracy owing to small...... several new lineage- and clade-specific tests to be applied. Of approximately 16,500 human genes with high-confidence orthologs in at least two other species, 400 genes showed significant evidence of positive selection (FDR... showed evidence of positive selection on particular lineages or clades. As in previous studies, the identified PSGs were enriched for roles in defense/immunity, chemosensory perception, and reproduction, but enrichments were also evident for more specific functions, such as complement-mediated immunity...

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-01-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...

Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujun Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.

Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

Genomic Signatures of Reinforcement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Austin G. Garner

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Reinforcement is the process by which selection against hybridization increases reproductive isolation between taxa. Much research has focused on demonstrating the existence of reinforcement, yet relatively little is known about the genetic basis of reinforcement or the evolutionary conditions under which reinforcement can occur. Inspired by reinforcement’s characteristic phenotypic pattern of reproductive trait divergence in sympatry but not in allopatry, we discuss whether reinforcement also leaves a distinct genomic pattern. First, we describe three patterns of genetic variation we expect as a consequence of reinforcement. Then, we discuss a set of alternative processes and complicating factors that may make the identification of reinforcement at the genomic level difficult. Finally, we consider how genomic analyses can be leveraged to inform if and to what extent reinforcement evolved in the face of gene flow between sympatric lineages and between allopatric and sympatric populations of the same lineage. Our major goals are to understand if genome scans for particular patterns of genetic variation could identify reinforcement, isolate the genetic basis of reinforcement, or infer the conditions under which reinforcement evolved.

Genomic Signatures of Reinforcement

Science.gov (United States)

Goulet, Benjamin E.

2018-01-01

Reinforcement is the process by which selection against hybridization increases reproductive isolation between taxa. Much research has focused on demonstrating the existence of reinforcement, yet relatively little is known about the genetic basis of reinforcement or the evolutionary conditions under which reinforcement can occur. Inspired by reinforcement’s characteristic phenotypic pattern of reproductive trait divergence in sympatry but not in allopatry, we discuss whether reinforcement also leaves a distinct genomic pattern. First, we describe three patterns of genetic variation we expect as a consequence of reinforcement. Then, we discuss a set of alternative processes and complicating factors that may make the identification of reinforcement at the genomic level difficult. Finally, we consider how genomic analyses can be leveraged to inform if and to what extent reinforcement evolved in the face of gene flow between sympatric lineages and between allopatric and sympatric populations of the same lineage. Our major goals are to understand if genome scans for particular patterns of genetic variation could identify reinforcement, isolate the genetic basis of reinforcement, or infer the conditions under which reinforcement evolved. PMID:29614048

Genome scan of M. tuberculosis infection and disease in Ugandans.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine M Stein

Full Text Available Tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, is an enduring public health problem globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies have suggested a role for host genetic susceptibility in increased risk for TB but results across studies have been equivocal. As part of a household contact study of Mtb infection and disease in Kampala, Uganda, we have taken a unique approach to the study of genetic susceptibility to TB, by studying three phenotypes. First, we analyzed culture confirmed TB disease compared to latent Mtb infection (LTBI or lack of Mtb infection. Second, we analyzed resistance to Mtb infection in the face of continuous exposure, defined by a persistently negative tuberculin skin test (PTST-; this outcome was contrasted to LTBI. Third, we analyzed an intermediate phenotype, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha expression in response to soluble Mtb ligands enriched with molecules secreted from Mtb (culture filtrate. We conducted a full microsatellite genome scan, using genotypes generated by the Center for Medical Genetics at Marshfield. Multipoint model-free linkage analysis was conducted using an extension of the Haseman-Elston regression model that includes half sibling pairs, and HIV status was included as a covariate in the model. The analysis included 803 individuals from 193 pedigrees, comprising 258 full sibling pairs and 175 half sibling pairs. Suggestive linkage (p<10(-3 was observed on chromosomes 2q21-2q24 and 5p13-5q22 for PTST-, and on chromosome 7p22-7p21 for TB; these findings for PTST- are novel and the chromosome 7 region contains the IL6 gene. In addition, we replicated recent linkage findings on chromosome 20q13 for TB (p = 0.002. We also observed linkage at the nominal alpha = 0.05 threshold to a number of promising candidate genes, SLC11A1 (PTST- p = 0.02, IL-1 complex (TB p = 0.01, IL12BR2 (TNFalpha p = 0.006, IL12A (TB p = 0.02 and IFNGR2 (TNFalpha p = 0.002. These results confirm

Prediction of maize phenotype based on whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphisms using deep belief networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rachmatia, H.; Kusuma, W. A.; Hasibuan, L. S.

2017-05-01

Selection in plant breeding could be more effective and more efficient if it is based on genomic data. Genomic selection (GS) is a new approach for plant-breeding selection that exploits genomic data through a mechanism called genomic prediction (GP). Most of GP models used linear methods that ignore effects of interaction among genes and effects of higher order nonlinearities. Deep belief network (DBN), one of the architectural in deep learning methods, is able to model data in high level of abstraction that involves nonlinearities effects of the data. This study implemented DBN for developing a GP model utilizing whole-genome Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) as data for training and testing. The case study was a set of traits in maize. The maize dataset was acquisitioned from CIMMYT’s (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) Global Maize program. Based on Pearson correlation, DBN is outperformed than other methods, kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian LASSO (BL), best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP), in case allegedly non-additive traits. DBN achieves correlation of 0.579 within -1 to 1 range.

Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

2012-01-01

sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Enhancer Identification through Comparative Genomics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Visel, Axel; Bristow, James; Pennacchio, Len A.

2006-10-01

With the availability of genomic sequence from numerousvertebrates, a paradigm shift has occurred in the identification ofdistant-acting gene regulatory elements. In contrast to traditionalgene-centric studies in which investigators randomly scanned genomicfragments that flank genes of interest in functional assays, the modernapproach begins electronically with publicly available comparativesequence datasets that provide investigators with prioritized lists ofputative functional sequences based on their evolutionary conservation.However, although a large number of tools and resources are nowavailable, application of comparative genomic approaches remains far fromtrivial. In particular, it requires users to dynamically consider thespecies and methods for comparison depending on the specific biologicalquestion under investigation. While there is currently no single generalrule to this end, it is clear that when applied appropriately,comparative genomic approaches exponentially increase our power ingenerating biological hypotheses for subsequent experimentaltesting.

Genome-wide scans for delineation of candidate genes regulating seed-protein content in chickpea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hari Deo eUpadhyaya

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Identification of potential genes/alleles governing complex seed-protein content (SPC trait is essential in marker-assisted breeding for quality trait improvement of chickpea. Henceforth, the present study utilized an integrated genomics-assisted breeding strategy encompassing trait association analysis, selective genotyping in traditional bi-parental mapping population and differential expression profiling for the first-time to understand the complex genetic architecture of quantitative SPC trait in chickpea. For GWAS (genome-wide association study, high-throughput genotyping information of 16376 genome-based SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphism discovered from a structured population of 336 sequenced desi and kabuli accessions [with 150-200 kb LD (linkage disequilibrium decay] was utilized. This led to identification of seven most effective genomic loci (genes associated [10 to 20% with 41% combined PVE (phenotypic variation explained] with SPC trait in chickpea. Regardless of the diverse desi and kabuli genetic backgrounds, a comparable level of association potential of the identified seven genomic loci with SPC trait was observed. Five SPC-associated genes were validated successfully in parental accessions and homozygous individuals of an intra-specific desi RIL (recombinant inbred line mapping population (ICC 12299 x ICC 4958 by selective genotyping. The seed-specific expression, including differential up-regulation (> 4-fold of six SPC-associated genes particularly in accessions, parents and homozygous individuals of the aforementioned mapping population with high level of contrasting seed-protein content (21-22% was evident. Collectively, the integrated genomic approach delineated diverse naturally occurring novel functional SNP allelic variants in six potential candidate genes regulating SPC trait in chickpea. Of these, a non-synonymous SNP allele-carrying zinc finger transcription factor gene exhibiting strong association with SPC trait

Genomic Analysis of Hepatitis B Virus Reveals Antigen State and Genotype as Sources of Evolutionary Rate Variation

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Abby; Lemey, Philippe; Hurles, Matthew; Moyes, Chris; Horn, Susanne; Pryor, Jan; Malani, Joji; Supuri, Mathias; Masta, Andrew; Teriboriki, Burentau; Toatu, Tebuka; Penny, David; Rambaut, Andrew; Shapiro, Beth

2011-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genomes are small, semi-double-stranded DNA circular genomes that contain alternating overlapping reading frames and replicate through an RNA intermediary phase. This complex biology has presented a challenge to estimating an evolutionary rate for HBV, leading to difficulties resolving the evolutionary and epidemiological history of the virus. Here, we re-examine rates of HBV evolution using a novel data set of 112 within-host, transmission history (pedigree) and among-host genomes isolated over 20 years from the indigenous peoples of the South Pacific, combined with 313 previously published HBV genomes. We employ Bayesian phylogenetic approaches to examine several potential causes and consequences of evolutionary rate variation in HBV. Our results reveal rate variation both between genotypes and across the genome, as well as strikingly slower rates when genomes are sampled in the Hepatitis B e antigen positive state, compared to the e antigen negative state. This Hepatitis B e antigen rate variation was found to be largely attributable to changes during the course of infection in the preCore and Core genes and their regulatory elements. PMID:21765983

Detection of Ground Clutter from Weather Radar Using a Dual-Polarization and Dual-Scan Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad-Hossein Golbon-Haghighi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A novel dual-polarization and dual-scan (DPDS classification algorithm is developed for clutter detection in weather radar observations. Two consecutive scans of dual-polarization radar echoes are jointly processed to estimate auto- and cross-correlation functions. Discriminants are then defined and estimated in order to separate clutter from weather based on their physical and statistical properties. An optimal Bayesian classifier is used to make a decision on clutter presence from the estimated discriminant functions. The DPDS algorithm is applied to the data collected with the KOUN polarimetric radar and compared with the existing detection methods. It is shown that the DPDS algorithm yields a higher probability of detection and lower false alarm rate in clutter detection.

Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...... with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....

Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

KAUST Repository

Wu, Mingqi

2009-10-26

BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

The first complete organellar genomes of an Antarctic red alga, Pyropia endiviifolia: insights into its genome architecture and phylogenetic position within genus Pyropia (Bangiales, Rhodophyta)

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kuipeng; Tang, Xianghai; Bi, Guiqi; Cao, Min; Wang, Lu; Mao, Yunxiang

2017-08-01

Pyropia species grow in the intertidal zone and are cold-water adapted. To date, most of the information about the whole plastid and mitochondrial genomes (ptDNA and mtDNA) of this genus is limited to Northern Hemisphere species. Here, we report the sequencing of the ptDNA and mtDNA of the Antarctic red alga Pyropia endiviifolia using the Illumina platform. The plastid genome (195 784 bp, 33.28% GC content) contains 210 protein-coding genes, 37 tRNA genes and 6 rRNA genes. The mitochondrial genome (34 603 bp, 30.5% GC content) contains 26 protein-coding genes, 25 tRNA genes and 2 rRNA genes. Our results suggest that the organellar genomes of Py. endiviifolia have a compact organization. Although the collinearity of these genomes is conserved compared with other Pyropia species, the genome sizes show significant differences, mainly because of the different copy numbers of rDNA operons in the ptDNA and group II introns in the mtDNA. The other Pyropia species have 2u20133 distinct intronic ORFs in their cox 1 genes, but Py. endiviifolia has no introns in its cox 1 gene. This has led to a smaller mtDNA than in other Pyropia species. The phylogenetic relationships within Pyropia were examined using concatenated gene sets from most of the available organellar genomes with both the maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The analysis revealed a sister taxa affiliation between the Antarctic species Py. endiviifolia and the North American species Py. kanakaensis.

Parasitism drives host genome evolution: Insights from the Pasteuria ramosa-Daphnia magna system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bourgeois, Yann; Roulin, Anne C; Müller, Kristina; Ebert, Dieter

2017-04-01

Because parasitism is thought to play a major role in shaping host genomes, it has been predicted that genomic regions associated with resistance to parasites should stand out in genome scans, revealing signals of selection above the genomic background. To test whether parasitism is indeed such a major factor in host evolution and to better understand host-parasite interaction at the molecular level, we studied genome-wide polymorphisms in 97 genotypes of the planktonic crustacean Daphnia magna originating from three localities across Europe. Daphnia magna is known to coevolve with the bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa for which host genotypes (clonal lines) are either resistant or susceptible. Using association mapping, we identified two genomic regions involved in resistance to P. ramosa, one of which was already known from a previous QTL analysis. We then performed a naïve genome scan to test for signatures of positive selection and found that the two regions identified with the association mapping further stood out as outliers. Several other regions with evidence for selection were also found, but no link between these regions and phenotypic variation could be established. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that parasitism is driving host genome evolution. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

A genome-wide scan for common alleles affecting risk for autism.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Anney, Richard

2010-10-15

Although autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) have a substantial genetic basis, most of the known genetic risk has been traced to rare variants, principally copy number variants (CNVs). To identify common risk variation, the Autism Genome Project (AGP) Consortium genotyped 1558 rigorously defined ASD families for 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and analyzed these SNP genotypes for association with ASD. In one of four primary association analyses, the association signal for marker rs4141463, located within MACROD2, crossed the genome-wide association significance threshold of P < 5 × 10(-8). When a smaller replication sample was analyzed, the risk allele at rs4141463 was again over-transmitted; yet, consistent with the winner\\'s curse, its effect size in the replication sample was much smaller; and, for the combined samples, the association signal barely fell below the P < 5 × 10(-8) threshold. Exploratory analyses of phenotypic subtypes yielded no significant associations after correction for multiple testing. They did, however, yield strong signals within several genes, KIAA0564, PLD5, POU6F2, ST8SIA2 and TAF1C.

A genome-wide scan for common alleles affecting risk for autism.

Science.gov (United States)

Anney, Richard; Klei, Lambertus; Pinto, Dalila; Regan, Regina; Conroy, Judith; Magalhaes, Tiago R; Correia, Catarina; Abrahams, Brett S; Sykes, Nuala; Pagnamenta, Alistair T; Almeida, Joana; Bacchelli, Elena; Bailey, Anthony J; Baird, Gillian; Battaglia, Agatino; Berney, Tom; Bolshakova, Nadia; Bölte, Sven; Bolton, Patrick F; Bourgeron, Thomas; Brennan, Sean; Brian, Jessica; Carson, Andrew R; Casallo, Guillermo; Casey, Jillian; Chu, Su H; Cochrane, Lynne; Corsello, Christina; Crawford, Emily L; Crossett, Andrew; Dawson, Geraldine; de Jonge, Maretha; Delorme, Richard; Drmic, Irene; Duketis, Eftichia; Duque, Frederico; Estes, Annette; Farrar, Penny; Fernandez, Bridget A; Folstein, Susan E; Fombonne, Eric; Freitag, Christine M; Gilbert, John; Gillberg, Christopher; Glessner, Joseph T; Goldberg, Jeremy; Green, Jonathan; Guter, Stephen J; Hakonarson, Hakon; Heron, Elizabeth A; Hill, Matthew; Holt, Richard; Howe, Jennifer L; Hughes, Gillian; Hus, Vanessa; Igliozzi, Roberta; Kim, Cecilia; Klauck, Sabine M; Kolevzon, Alexander; Korvatska, Olena; Kustanovich, Vlad; Lajonchere, Clara M; Lamb, Janine A; Laskawiec, Magdalena; Leboyer, Marion; Le Couteur, Ann; Leventhal, Bennett L; Lionel, Anath C; Liu, Xiao-Qing; Lord, Catherine; Lotspeich, Linda; Lund, Sabata C; Maestrini, Elena; Mahoney, William; Mantoulan, Carine; Marshall, Christian R; McConachie, Helen; McDougle, Christopher J; McGrath, Jane; McMahon, William M; Melhem, Nadine M; Merikangas, Alison; Migita, Ohsuke; Minshew, Nancy J; Mirza, Ghazala K; Munson, Jeff; Nelson, Stanley F; Noakes, Carolyn; Noor, Abdul; Nygren, Gudrun; Oliveira, Guiomar; Papanikolaou, Katerina; Parr, Jeremy R; Parrini, Barbara; Paton, Tara; Pickles, Andrew; Piven, Joseph; Posey, David J; Poustka, Annemarie; Poustka, Fritz; Prasad, Aparna; Ragoussis, Jiannis; Renshaw, Katy; Rickaby, Jessica; Roberts, Wendy; Roeder, Kathryn; Roge, Bernadette; Rutter, Michael L; Bierut, Laura J; Rice, John P; Salt, Jeff; Sansom, Katherine; Sato, Daisuke; Segurado, Ricardo; Senman, Lili; Shah, Naisha; Sheffield, Val C; Soorya, Latha; Sousa, Inês; Stoppioni, Vera; Strawbridge, Christina; Tancredi, Raffaella; Tansey, Katherine; Thiruvahindrapduram, Bhooma; Thompson, Ann P; Thomson, Susanne; Tryfon, Ana; Tsiantis, John; Van Engeland, Herman; Vincent, John B; Volkmar, Fred; Wallace, Simon; Wang, Kai; Wang, Zhouzhi; Wassink, Thomas H; Wing, Kirsty; Wittemeyer, Kerstin; Wood, Shawn; Yaspan, Brian L; Zurawiecki, Danielle; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Betancur, Catalina; Buxbaum, Joseph D; Cantor, Rita M; Cook, Edwin H; Coon, Hilary; Cuccaro, Michael L; Gallagher, Louise; Geschwind, Daniel H; Gill, Michael; Haines, Jonathan L; Miller, Judith; Monaco, Anthony P; Nurnberger, John I; Paterson, Andrew D; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Scherer, Stephen W; Sutcliffe, James S; Szatmari, Peter; Vicente, Astrid M; Vieland, Veronica J; Wijsman, Ellen M; Devlin, Bernie; Ennis, Sean; Hallmayer, Joachim

2010-10-15

Although autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) have a substantial genetic basis, most of the known genetic risk has been traced to rare variants, principally copy number variants (CNVs). To identify common risk variation, the Autism Genome Project (AGP) Consortium genotyped 1558 rigorously defined ASD families for 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and analyzed these SNP genotypes for association with ASD. In one of four primary association analyses, the association signal for marker rs4141463, located within MACROD2, crossed the genome-wide association significance threshold of P < 5 × 10(-8). When a smaller replication sample was analyzed, the risk allele at rs4141463 was again over-transmitted; yet, consistent with the winner's curse, its effect size in the replication sample was much smaller; and, for the combined samples, the association signal barely fell below the P < 5 × 10(-8) threshold. Exploratory analyses of phenotypic subtypes yielded no significant associations after correction for multiple testing. They did, however, yield strong signals within several genes, KIAA0564, PLD5, POU6F2, ST8SIA2 and TAF1C.

Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2016-01-01

Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

A preliminary mitochondrial genome phylogeny of Orthoptera (Insecta) and approaches to maximizing phylogenetic signal found within mitochondrial genome data.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenn, J Daniel; Song, Hojun; Cameron, Stephen L; Whiting, Michael F

2008-10-01

The phylogenetic utility of mitochondrial genomes (mtgenomes) is examined using the framework of a preliminary phylogeny of Orthoptera. This study presents five newly sequenced genomes from four orthopteran families. While all ensiferan and polyneopteran taxa retain the ancestral gene order, all caeliferan lineages including the newly sequenced caeliferan species contain a tRNA rearrangement from the insect ground plan tRNA(Lys)(K)-tRNA(Asp)(D) swapping to tRNA(Asp) (D)-tRNA(Lys) (K) confirming that this rearrangement is a possible molecular synapomorphy for this suborder. The phylogenetic signal in mtgenomes is rigorously examined under the analytical regimens of parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference, along with how gene inclusion/exclusion, data recoding, gap coding, and different partitioning schemes influence the phylogenetic reconstruction. When all available data are analyzed simultaneously, the monophyly of Orthoptera and its two suborders, Caelifera and Ensifera, are consistently recovered in the context of our taxon sampling, regardless of the optimality criteria. When protein-coding genes are analyzed as a single partition, nearly identical topology to the combined analyses is recovered, suggesting that much of the signals of the mtgenome come from the protein-coding genes. Transfer and ribosomal RNAs perform poorly when analyzed individually, but contribute signal when analyzed in combination with the protein-coding genes. Inclusion of third codon position of the protein-coding genes does not negatively affect the phylogenetic reconstruction when all genes are analyzed together, whereas recoding of the protein-coding genes into amino acid sequences introduces artificial resolution. Over-partitioning in a Bayesian framework appears to have a negative effect in achieving convergence. Our findings suggest that the best phylogenetic inferences are made when all available nucleotide data from the mtgenome are analyzed simultaneously, and that

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric D. Johnson

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

Being Bayesian in a quantum world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, C.

2005-01-01

Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these

Detecting Genomic Signatures of Natural Selection with Principal Component Analysis: Application to the 1000 Genomes Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Luu, Keurcien; Laval, Guillaume; Bazin, Eric; Blum, Michael G B

2016-04-01

To characterize natural selection, various analytical methods for detecting candidate genomic regions have been developed. We propose to perform genome-wide scans of natural selection using principal component analysis (PCA). We show that the common FST index of genetic differentiation between populations can be viewed as the proportion of variance explained by the principal components. Considering the correlations between genetic variants and each principal component provides a conceptual framework to detect genetic variants involved in local adaptation without any prior definition of populations. To validate the PCA-based approach, we consider the 1000 Genomes data (phase 1) considering 850 individuals coming from Africa, Asia, and Europe. The number of genetic variants is of the order of 36 millions obtained with a low-coverage sequencing depth (3×). The correlations between genetic variation and each principal component provide well-known targets for positive selection (EDAR, SLC24A5, SLC45A2, DARC), and also new candidate genes (APPBPP2, TP1A1, RTTN, KCNMA, MYO5C) and noncoding RNAs. In addition to identifying genes involved in biological adaptation, we identify two biological pathways involved in polygenic adaptation that are related to the innate immune system (beta defensins) and to lipid metabolism (fatty acid omega oxidation). An additional analysis of European data shows that a genome scan based on PCA retrieves classical examples of local adaptation even when there are no well-defined populations. PCA-based statistics, implemented in the PCAdapt R package and the PCAdapt fast open-source software, retrieve well-known signals of human adaptation, which is encouraging for future whole-genome sequencing project, especially when defining populations is difficult. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

2016-01-01

Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

Genomic scan reveals loci under altitude adaptation in Tibetan and Dahe pigs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kunzhe Dong

Full Text Available High altitude environments are of particular interest in the studies of local adaptation as well as their implications in physiology and clinical medicine in human. Some Chinese pig breeds, such as Tibetan pig (TBP that is well adapted to the high altitude and Dahe pig (DHP that dwells at the moderate altitude, provide ideal materials to study local adaptation to altitudes. Yet, it is still short of in-depth analysis and understanding of the genetic adaptation to high altitude in the two pig populations. In this study we conducted a genomic scan for selective sweeps using FST to identify genes showing evidence of local adaptations in TBP and DHP, with Wuzhishan pig (WZSP as the low-altitude reference. Totally, we identified 12 specific selective genes (CCBE1, F2RL1, AGGF1, ZFPM2, IL2, FGF5, PLA2G4A, ADAMTS9, NRBF2, JMJD1C, VEGFC and ADAM19 for TBP and six (OGG1, FOXM, FLT3, RTEL1, CRELD1 and RHOG for DHP. In addition, six selective genes (VPS13A, GNA14, GDAP1, PARP8, FGF10 and ADAMTS16 were shared by the two pig breeds. Among these selective genes, three (VEGFC, FGF10 and ADAMTS9 were previously reported to be linked to the local adaptation to high altitudes in pigs, while many others were newly identified by this study. Further bioinformatics analysis demonstrated that majority of these selective signatures have some biological functions relevant to the altitude adaptation, for examples, response to hypoxia, development of blood vessels, DNA repair and several hematological involvements. These results suggest that the local adaptation to high altitude environments is sophisticated, involving numerous genes and multiple biological processes, and the shared selective signatures by the two pig breeds may provide an effective avenue to identify the common adaptive mechanisms to different altitudes.

Bayesian statistical inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno De Finetti

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

OpenAIRE

Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

Micro computed tomography (CT) scanned anatomical gateway to insect pest bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

An international collaboration to establish an interactive Digital Video Library for a Systems Biology Approach to study the Asian citrus Psyllid and psyllid genomics/proteomics interactions is demonstrated. Advances in micro-CT, digital computed tomography (CT) scan uses X-rays to make detailed pic...

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Genome-wide linkage analysis for human longevity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beekman, Marian; Blanché, Hélène; Perola, Markus

2013-01-01

Clear evidence exists for heritability of human longevity, and much interest is focused on identifying genes associated with longer lives. To identify such longevity alleles, we performed the largest genome-wide linkage scan thus far reported. Linkage analyses included 2118 nonagenarian Caucasian...

Copy Number Variations in Tilapia Genomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bi Jun; Li, Hong Lian; Meng, Zining; Zhang, Yong; Lin, Haoran; Yue, Gen Hua; Xia, Jun Hong

2017-02-01

Discovering the nature and pattern of genome variation is fundamental in understanding phenotypic diversity among populations. Although several millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been discovered in tilapia, the genome-wide characterization of larger structural variants, such as copy number variation (CNV) regions has not been carried out yet. We conducted a genome-wide scan for CNVs in 47 individuals from three tilapia populations. Based on 254 Gb of high-quality paired-end sequencing reads, we identified 4642 distinct high-confidence CNVs. These CNVs account for 1.9% (12.411 Mb) of the used Nile tilapia reference genome. A total of 1100 predicted CNVs were found overlapping with exon regions of protein genes. Further association analysis based on linear model regression found 85 CNVs ranging between 300 and 27,000 base pairs significantly associated to population types (R 2  > 0.9 and P > 0.001). Our study sheds first insights on genome-wide CNVs in tilapia. These CNVs among and within tilapia populations may have functional effects on phenotypes and specific adaptation to particular environments.

Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

CERN Document Server

Blangiardo, Marta

2015-01-01

Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

Bayesian Optimization for Neuroimaging Pre-processing in Brain Age Classification and Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenessa Lancaster

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Neuroimaging-based age prediction using machine learning is proposed as a biomarker of brain aging, relating to cognitive performance, health outcomes and progression of neurodegenerative disease. However, even leading age-prediction algorithms contain measurement error, motivating efforts to improve experimental pipelines. T1-weighted MRI is commonly used for age prediction, and the pre-processing of these scans involves normalization to a common template and resampling to a common voxel size, followed by spatial smoothing. Resampling parameters are often selected arbitrarily. Here, we sought to improve brain-age prediction accuracy by optimizing resampling parameters using Bayesian optimization. Using data on N = 2003 healthy individuals (aged 16–90 years we trained support vector machines to (i distinguish between young (<22 years and old (>50 years brains (classification and (ii predict chronological age (regression. We also evaluated generalisability of the age-regression model to an independent dataset (CamCAN, N = 648, aged 18–88 years. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal voxel size and smoothing kernel size for each task. This procedure adaptively samples the parameter space to evaluate accuracy across a range of possible parameters, using independent sub-samples to iteratively assess different parameter combinations to arrive at optimal values. When distinguishing between young and old brains a classification accuracy of 88.1% was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 11.5 mm3, smoothing kernel = 2.3 mm. For predicting chronological age, a mean absolute error (MAE of 5.08 years was achieved, (optimal voxel size = 3.73 mm3, smoothing kernel = 3.68 mm. This was compared to performance using default values of 1.5 mm3 and 4mm respectively, resulting in MAE = 5.48 years, though this 7.3% improvement was not statistically significant. When assessing generalisability, best performance was achieved when applying the entire Bayesian

Hon-yaku: a biology-driven Bayesian methodology for identifying translation initiation sites in prokaryotes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Hoon Michiel JL

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational prediction methods are currently used to identify genes in prokaryote genomes. However, identification of the correct translation initiation sites remains a difficult task. Accurate translation initiation sites (TISs are important not only for the annotation of unknown proteins but also for the prediction of operons, promoters, and small non-coding RNA genes, as this typically makes use of the intergenic distance. A further problem is that most existing methods are optimized for Escherichia coli data sets; applying these methods to newly sequenced bacterial genomes may not result in an equivalent level of accuracy. Results Based on a biological representation of the translation process, we applied Bayesian statistics to create a score function for predicting translation initiation sites. In contrast to existing programs, our combination of methods uses supervised learning to optimally use the set of known translation initiation sites. We combined the Ribosome Binding Site (RBS sequence, the distance between the translation initiation site and the RBS sequence, the base composition of the start codon, the nucleotide composition (A-rich sequences following start codons, and the expected distribution of the protein length in a Bayesian scoring function. To further increase the prediction accuracy, we also took into account the operon orientation. The outcome of the procedure achieved a prediction accuracy of 93.2% in 858 E. coli genes from the EcoGene data set and 92.7% accuracy in a data set of 1243 Bacillus subtilis 'non-y' genes. We confirmed the performance in the GC-rich Gamma-Proteobacteria Herminiimonas arsenicoxydans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Burkholderia pseudomallei K96243. Conclusion Hon-yaku, being based on a careful choice of elements important in translation, improved the prediction accuracy in B. subtilis data sets and other bacteria except for E. coli. We believe that most remaining

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

A genome-wide scan for common alleles affecting risk for autism

Science.gov (United States)

Anney, Richard; Klei, Lambertus; Pinto, Dalila; Regan, Regina; Conroy, Judith; Magalhaes, Tiago R.; Correia, Catarina; Abrahams, Brett S.; Sykes, Nuala; Pagnamenta, Alistair T.; Almeida, Joana; Bacchelli, Elena; Bailey, Anthony J.; Baird, Gillian; Battaglia, Agatino; Berney, Tom; Bolshakova, Nadia; Bölte, Sven; Bolton, Patrick F.; Bourgeron, Thomas; Brennan, Sean; Brian, Jessica; Carson, Andrew R.; Casallo, Guillermo; Casey, Jillian; Chu, Su H.; Cochrane, Lynne; Corsello, Christina; Crawford, Emily L.; Crossett, Andrew; Dawson, Geraldine; de Jonge, Maretha; Delorme, Richard; Drmic, Irene; Duketis, Eftichia; Duque, Frederico; Estes, Annette; Farrar, Penny; Fernandez, Bridget A.; Folstein, Susan E.; Fombonne, Eric; Freitag, Christine M.; Gilbert, John; Gillberg, Christopher; Glessner, Joseph T.; Goldberg, Jeremy; Green, Jonathan; Guter, Stephen J.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Heron, Elizabeth A.; Hill, Matthew; Holt, Richard; Howe, Jennifer L.; Hughes, Gillian; Hus, Vanessa; Igliozzi, Roberta; Kim, Cecilia; Klauck, Sabine M.; Kolevzon, Alexander; Korvatska, Olena; Kustanovich, Vlad; Lajonchere, Clara M.; Lamb, Janine A.; Laskawiec, Magdalena; Leboyer, Marion; Le Couteur, Ann; Leventhal, Bennett L.; Lionel, Anath C.; Liu, Xiao-Qing; Lord, Catherine; Lotspeich, Linda; Lund, Sabata C.; Maestrini, Elena; Mahoney, William; Mantoulan, Carine; Marshall, Christian R.; McConachie, Helen; McDougle, Christopher J.; McGrath, Jane; McMahon, William M.; Melhem, Nadine M.; Merikangas, Alison; Migita, Ohsuke; Minshew, Nancy J.; Mirza, Ghazala K.; Munson, Jeff; Nelson, Stanley F.; Noakes, Carolyn; Noor, Abdul; Nygren, Gudrun; Oliveira, Guiomar; Papanikolaou, Katerina; Parr, Jeremy R.; Parrini, Barbara; Paton, Tara; Pickles, Andrew; Piven, Joseph; Posey, David J; Poustka, Annemarie; Poustka, Fritz; Prasad, Aparna; Ragoussis, Jiannis; Renshaw, Katy; Rickaby, Jessica; Roberts, Wendy; Roeder, Kathryn; Roge, Bernadette; Rutter, Michael L.; Bierut, Laura J.; Rice, John P.; Salt, Jeff; Sansom, Katherine; Sato, Daisuke; Segurado, Ricardo; Senman, Lili; Shah, Naisha; Sheffield, Val C.; Soorya, Latha; Sousa, Inês; Stoppioni, Vera; Strawbridge, Christina; Tancredi, Raffaella; Tansey, Katherine; Thiruvahindrapduram, Bhooma; Thompson, Ann P.; Thomson, Susanne; Tryfon, Ana; Tsiantis, John; Van Engeland, Herman; Vincent, John B.; Volkmar, Fred; Wallace, Simon; Wang, Kai; Wang, Zhouzhi; Wassink, Thomas H.; Wing, Kirsty; Wittemeyer, Kerstin; Wood, Shawn; Yaspan, Brian L.; Zurawiecki, Danielle; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Betancur, Catalina; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Cantor, Rita M.; Cook, Edwin H.; Coon, Hilary; Cuccaro, Michael L.; Gallagher, Louise; Geschwind, Daniel H.; Gill, Michael; Haines, Jonathan L.; Miller, Judith; Monaco, Anthony P.; Nurnberger, John I.; Paterson, Andrew D.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Scherer, Stephen W.; Sutcliffe, James S.; Szatmari, Peter; Vicente, Astrid M.; Vieland, Veronica J.; Wijsman, Ellen M.; Devlin, Bernie; Ennis, Sean; Hallmayer, Joachim

2010-01-01

Although autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) have a substantial genetic basis, most of the known genetic risk has been traced to rare variants, principally copy number variants (CNVs). To identify common risk variation, the Autism Genome Project (AGP) Consortium genotyped 1558 rigorously defined ASD families for 1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and analyzed these SNP genotypes for association with ASD. In one of four primary association analyses, the association signal for marker rs4141463, located within MACROD2, crossed the genome-wide association significance threshold of P < 5 × 10−8. When a smaller replication sample was analyzed, the risk allele at rs4141463 was again over-transmitted; yet, consistent with the winner's curse, its effect size in the replication sample was much smaller; and, for the combined samples, the association signal barely fell below the P < 5 × 10−8 threshold. Exploratory analyses of phenotypic subtypes yielded no significant associations after correction for multiple testing. They did, however, yield strong signals within several genes, KIAA0564, PLD5, POU6F2, ST8SIA2 and TAF1C. PMID:20663923

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

Science.gov (United States)

Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

2011-03-01

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage.

Science.gov (United States)

Hailer, Frank; Kutschera, Verena E; Hallström, Björn M; Klassert, Denise; Fain, Steven R; Leonard, Jennifer A; Arnason, Ulfur; Janke, Axel

2012-04-20

Recent studies have shown that the polar bear matriline (mitochondrial DNA) evolved from a brown bear lineage since the late Pleistocene, potentially indicating rapid speciation and adaption to arctic conditions. Here, we present a high-resolution data set from multiple independent loci across the nuclear genomes of a broad sample of polar, brown, and black bears. Bayesian coalescent analyses place polar bears outside the brown bear clade and date the divergence much earlier, in the middle Pleistocene, about 600 (338 to 934) thousand years ago. This provides more time for polar bear evolution and confirms previous suggestions that polar bears carry introgressed brown bear mitochondrial DNA due to past hybridization. Our results highlight that multilocus genomic analyses are crucial for an accurate understanding of evolutionary history.

Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

CERN Document Server

Groer, Peter G

2002-01-01

We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

Delineating slowly and rapidly evolving fractions of the Drosophila genome.

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, Jonathan M; Adams, Peter; Stephen, Stuart; Mattick, John S

2008-05-01

Evolutionary conservation is an important indicator of function and a major component of bioinformatic methods to identify non-protein-coding genes. We present a new Bayesian method for segmenting pairwise alignments of eukaryotic genomes while simultaneously classifying segments into slowly and rapidly evolving fractions. We also describe an information criterion similar to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for determining the number of classes. Working with pairwise alignments enables detection of differences in conservation patterns among closely related species. We analyzed three whole-genome and three partial-genome pairwise alignments among eight Drosophila species. Three distinct classes of conservation level were detected. Sequences comprising the most slowly evolving component were consistent across a range of species pairs, and constituted approximately 62-66% of the D. melanogaster genome. Almost all (>90%) of the aligned protein-coding sequence is in this fraction, suggesting much of it (comprising the majority of the Drosophila genome, including approximately 56% of non-protein-coding sequences) is functional. The size and content of the most rapidly evolving component was species dependent, and varied from 1.6% to 4.8%. This fraction is also enriched for protein-coding sequence (while containing significant amounts of non-protein-coding sequence), suggesting it is under positive selection. We also classified segments according to conservation and GC content simultaneously. This analysis identified numerous sub-classes of those identified on the basis of conservation alone, but was nevertheless consistent with that classification. Software, data, and results available at www.maths.qut.edu.au/-keithj/. Genomic segments comprising the conservation classes available in BED format.

Population genomics of the Wolbachia endosymbiont in Drosophila melanogaster.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark F Richardson

Full Text Available Wolbachia are maternally inherited symbiotic bacteria, commonly found in arthropods, which are able to manipulate the reproduction of their host in order to maximise their transmission. The evolutionary history of endosymbionts like Wolbachia can be revealed by integrating information on infection status in natural populations with patterns of sequence variation in Wolbachia and host mitochondrial genomes. Here we use whole-genome resequencing data from 290 lines of Drosophila melanogaster from North America, Europe, and Africa to predict Wolbachia infection status, estimate relative cytoplasmic genome copy number, and reconstruct Wolbachia and mitochondrial genome sequences. Overall, 63% of Drosophila strains were predicted to be infected with Wolbachia by our in silico analysis pipeline, which shows 99% concordance with infection status determined by diagnostic PCR. Complete Wolbachia and mitochondrial genomes show congruent phylogenies, consistent with strict vertical transmission through the maternal cytoplasm and imperfect transmission of Wolbachia. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis reveals that the most recent common ancestor of all Wolbachia and mitochondrial genomes in D. melanogaster dates to around 8,000 years ago. We find evidence for a recent global replacement of ancestral Wolbachia and mtDNA lineages, but our data suggest that the derived wMel lineage arose several thousand years ago, not in the 20th century as previously proposed. Our data also provide evidence that this global replacement event is incomplete and is likely to be one of several similar incomplete replacement events that have occurred since the out-of-Africa migration that allowed D. melanogaster to colonize worldwide habitats. This study provides a complete genomic analysis of the evolutionary mode and temporal dynamics of the D. melanogaster-Wolbachia symbiosis, as well as important resources for further analyses of the impact of Wolbachia on host biology.

BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

SARS CTL vaccine candidates; HLA supertype-, genome-wide scanning and biochemical validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sylvester-Hvid, C.; Nielsen, Morten; Lamberth, K.

2004-01-01

. Exact knowledge of how the immune system handles protein antigens would allow for the identification of such linear sequences directly, from genomic/proteomic sequence information (Lauemoller et al., Rev Immunogenet 2001: 2: 477-91). The latter was recently established when a causative coronavirus (SARS...

Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

Science.gov (United States)

Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

2013-03-01

Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method. Copyright © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Limin Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

Joint Bayesian variable and graph selection for regression models with network-structured predictors

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, C. B.; Stingo, F. C.; Vannucci, M.

2015-01-01

In this work, we develop a Bayesian approach to perform selection of predictors that are linked within a network. We achieve this by combining a sparse regression model relating the predictors to a response variable with a graphical model describing conditional dependencies among the predictors. The proposed method is well-suited for genomic applications since it allows the identification of pathways of functionally related genes or proteins which impact an outcome of interest. In contrast to previous approaches for network-guided variable selection, we infer the network among predictors using a Gaussian graphical model and do not assume that network information is available a priori. We demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in identifying network-structured predictors in simulation settings, and illustrate our proposed model with an application to inference of proteins relevant to glioblastoma survival. PMID:26514925

Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

Broad scan linkage analysis in a large Tourette family pedigree

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peiffer, A.; Leppert, M. [Univ. of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Wetering, B.J.M. van der [Univ. Hospital Rotterdam (Netherlands)

1994-09-01

Attempts to find a gene causing Tourette syndrome (TS) using linkage analysis have been unsuccessful even though as much as 65% of the autosomal genetic map has been excluded by the pooled results from several laboratories collaborating worldwide. One reason for this failure may be the misclassification of affection status of marry-in spouses. Specifically, we have found that six unrelated spouses in our Utah TS pedigree suffer from TS, obsessive-compulsive disorder or chronic motor tics. In light of these findings we decided to conduct a complete genomic scan from this Utah kindred with polymorphic markers in three related sibships in which there was no assortative mating. A linkage study assuming autosomal dominant inheritance was done using tetranucleotide repeat markers developed at the University of Utah. We selected markers that were less than 300 bp in size and that gave a heterozygosity of over 70% upon analysis in 4 CEPH families. Results to date with 95 markers run at an interval of 30 cM (covering 61% of the genome) show no evidence of linkage. We intend to extend the coverage to 100% of the genome. Pending completion of this scan, failure to provide evidence of linkage in our TS pedigree might then be attributed to phenotypic misclassification or erroneous assumptions regarding the genetic model of transmission.

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Complete sequencing of five araliaceae chloroplast genomes and the phylogenetic implications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rong Li

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The ginseng family (Araliaceae includes a number of economically important plant species. Previously phylogenetic studies circumscribed three major clades within the core ginseng plant family, yet the internal relationships of each major group have been poorly resolved perhaps due to rapid radiation of these lineages. Recent studies have shown that phyogenomics based on chloroplast genomes provides a viable way to resolve complex relationships. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We report the complete nucleotide sequences of five Araliaceae chloroplast genomes using next-generation sequencing technology. The five chloroplast genomes are 156,333-156,459 bp in length including a pair of inverted repeats (25,551-26,108 bp separated by the large single-copy (86,028-86,566 bp and small single-copy (18,021-19,117 bp regions. Each chloroplast genome contains the same 114 unique genes consisting of 30 transfer RNA genes, four ribosomal RNA genes, and 80 protein coding genes. Gene size, content, and order, AT content, and IR/SC boundary structure are similar among all Araliaceae chloroplast genomes. A total of 140 repeats were identified in the five chloroplast genomes with palindromic repeat as the most common type. Phylogenomic analyses using parsimony, likelihood, and Bayesian inference based on the complete chloroplast genomes strongly supported the monophyly of the Asian Palmate group and the Aralia-Panax group. Furthermore, the relationships among the sampled taxa within the Asian Palmate group were well resolved. Twenty-six DNA markers with the percentage of variable sites higher than 5% were identified, which may be useful for phylogenetic studies of Araliaceae. CONCLUSION: The chloroplast genomes of Araliaceae are highly conserved in all aspects of genome features. The large-scale phylogenomic data based on the complete chloroplast DNA sequences is shown to be effective for the phylogenetic reconstruction of Araliaceae.

Bayesian logistic regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

2007-01-01

In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

CERN Document Server

Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; 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2016-05-25

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2010-01-01

This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

2018-02-25

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Approximate Bayesian computation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikael Sunnåker

Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

Using whole-genome sequence data to predict quantitative trait phenotypes in Drosophila melanogaster.

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Ulrike Ober

Full Text Available Predicting organismal phenotypes from genotype data is important for plant and animal breeding, medicine, and evolutionary biology. Genomic-based phenotype prediction has been applied for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP genotyping platforms, but not using complete genome sequences. Here, we report genomic prediction for starvation stress resistance and startle response in Drosophila melanogaster, using ∼2.5 million SNPs determined by sequencing the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel population of inbred lines. We constructed a genomic relationship matrix from the SNP data and used it in a genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP model. We assessed predictive ability as the correlation between predicted genetic values and observed phenotypes by cross-validation, and found a predictive ability of 0.239±0.008 (0.230±0.012 for starvation resistance (startle response. The predictive ability of BayesB, a Bayesian method with internal SNP selection, was not greater than GBLUP. Selection of the 5% SNPs with either the highest absolute effect or variance explained did not improve predictive ability. Predictive ability decreased only when fewer than 150,000 SNPs were used to construct the genomic relationship matrix. We hypothesize that predictive power in this population stems from the SNP-based modeling of the subtle relationship structure caused by long-range linkage disequilibrium and not from population structure or SNPs in linkage disequilibrium with causal variants. We discuss the implications of these results for genomic prediction in other organisms.

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Balanced sensitivity functions for tuning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, J.H.; van der Gaag, L.C.

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers are Bayesian networks of restricted topological structure, which are tailored to classifying data instances into multiple dimensions. Like more traditional classifiers, multi-dimensional classifiers are typically learned from data and may include

Uses and misuses of Bayes' rule and Bayesian classifiers in cybersecurity

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Bard, Gregory V.

2017-12-01

This paper will discuss the applications of Bayes' Rule and Bayesian Classifiers in Cybersecurity. While the most elementary form of Bayes' rule occurs in undergraduate coursework, there are more complicated forms as well. As an extended example, Bayesian spam filtering is explored, and is in many ways the most triumphant accomplishment of Bayesian reasoning in computer science, as nearly everyone with an email address has a spam folder. Bayesian Classifiers have also been responsible significant cybersecurity research results; yet, because they are not part of the standard curriculum, few in the mathematics or information-technology communities have seen the exact definitions, requirements, and proofs that comprise the subject. Moreover, numerous errors have been made by researchers (described in this paper), due to some mathematical misunderstandings dealing with conditional independence, or other badly chosen assumptions. Finally, to provide instructors and researchers with real-world examples, 25 published cybersecurity papers that use Bayesian reasoning are given, with 2-4 sentence summaries of the focus and contributions of each paper.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

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Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

2016-12-01

We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.

Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

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Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu [The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 East 24th Street, Stop C0200, Austin, TX 78712-1229 (United States); Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch [Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Römistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland)

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

Learning Predictive Interactions Using Information Gain and Bayesian Network Scoring.

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Xia Jiang

Full Text Available The problems of correlation and classification are long-standing in the fields of statistics and machine learning, and techniques have been developed to address these problems. We are now in the era of high-dimensional data, which is data that can concern billions of variables. These data present new challenges. In particular, it is difficult to discover predictive variables, when each variable has little marginal effect. An example concerns Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS datasets, which involve millions of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs, where some of the SNPs interact epistatically to affect disease status. Towards determining these interacting SNPs, researchers developed techniques that addressed this specific problem. However, the problem is more general, and so these techniques are applicable to other problems concerning interactions. A difficulty with many of these techniques is that they do not distinguish whether a learned interaction is actually an interaction or whether it involves several variables with strong marginal effects.We address this problem using information gain and Bayesian network scoring. First, we identify candidate interactions by determining whether together variables provide more information than they do separately. Then we use Bayesian network scoring to see if a candidate interaction really is a likely model. Our strategy is called MBS-IGain. Using 100 simulated datasets and a real GWAS Alzheimer's dataset, we investigated the performance of MBS-IGain.When analyzing the simulated datasets, MBS-IGain substantially out-performed nine previous methods at locating interacting predictors, and at identifying interactions exactly. When analyzing the real Alzheimer's dataset, we obtained new results and results that substantiated previous findings. We conclude that MBS-IGain is highly effective at finding interactions in high-dimensional datasets. This result is significant because we have increasingly

Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

CERN Document Server

Haug, Anton J

2012-01-01

A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

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Sho Fukuda

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages

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Jürgen Landes

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.

Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

KAUST Repository

Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2012-01-01

Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical

Bayesian programming

CERN Document Server

Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

2013-01-01

Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

Bayesian Approaches to Imputation, Hypothesis Testing, and Parameter Estimation

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Ross, Steven J.; Mackey, Beth

2015-01-01

This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research. After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing, our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…

Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

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Prosper Harrison B.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

2001-01-01

In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search.

Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Kristin

2016-04-01

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

Genomic prediction in contrast to a genome-wide association study in explaining heritable variation of complex growth traits in breeding populations of Eucalyptus.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Bárbara S F; Neves, Leandro G; de Almeida Filho, Janeo E; Resende, Márcio F R; Muñoz, Patricio R; Dos Santos, Paulo E T; Filho, Estefano Paludzyszyn; Kirst, Matias; Grattapaglia, Dario

2017-07-11

The advent of high-throughput genotyping technologies coupled to genomic prediction methods established a new paradigm to integrate genomics and breeding. We carried out whole-genome prediction and contrasted it to a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for growth traits in breeding populations of Eucalyptus benthamii (n =505) and Eucalyptus pellita (n =732). Both species are of increasing commercial interest for the development of germplasm adapted to environmental stresses. Predictive ability reached 0.16 in E. benthamii and 0.44 in E. pellita for diameter growth. Predictive abilities using either Genomic BLUP or different Bayesian methods were similar, suggesting that growth adequately fits the infinitesimal model. Genomic prediction models using ~5000-10,000 SNPs provided predictive abilities equivalent to using all 13,787 and 19,506 SNPs genotyped in the E. benthamii and E. pellita populations, respectively. No difference was detected in predictive ability when different sets of SNPs were utilized, based on position (equidistantly genome-wide, inside genes, linkage disequilibrium pruned or on single chromosomes), as long as the total number of SNPs used was above ~5000. Predictive abilities obtained by removing relatedness between training and validation sets fell near zero for E. benthamii and were halved for E. pellita. These results corroborate the current view that relatedness is the main driver of genomic prediction, although some short-range historical linkage disequilibrium (LD) was likely captured for E. pellita. A GWAS identified only one significant association for volume growth in E. pellita, illustrating the fact that while genome-wide regression is able to account for large proportions of the heritability, very little or none of it is captured into significant associations using GWAS in breeding populations of the size evaluated in this study. This study provides further experimental data supporting positive prospects of using genome-wide data to

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

2004-01-01

Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses

Genomic Prediction Accuracy for Resistance Against Piscirickettsia salmonis in Farmed Rainbow Trout

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Grazyella M. Yoshida

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Salmonid rickettsial syndrome (SRS, caused by the intracellular bacterium Piscirickettsia salmonis, is one of the main diseases affecting rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss farming. To accelerate genetic progress, genomic selection methods can be used as an effective approach to control the disease. The aims of this study were: (i to compare the accuracy of estimated breeding values using pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (PBLUP with genomic BLUP (GBLUP, single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP, Bayes C, and Bayesian Lasso (LASSO; and (ii to test the accuracy of genomic prediction and PBLUP using different marker densities (0.5, 3, 10, 20, and 27 K for resistance against P. salmonis in rainbow trout. Phenotypes were recorded as number of days to death (DD and binary survival (BS from 2416 fish challenged with P. salmonis. A total of 1934 fish were genotyped using a 57 K single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP array. All genomic prediction methods achieved higher accuracies than PBLUP. The relative increase in accuracy for different genomic models ranged from 28 to 41% for both DD and BS at 27 K SNP. Between different genomic models, the highest relative increase in accuracy was obtained with Bayes C (∼40%, where 3 K SNP was enough to achieve a similar accuracy to that of the 27 K SNP for both traits. For resistance against P. salmonis in rainbow trout, we showed that genomic predictions using GBLUP, ssGBLUP, Bayes C, and LASSO can increase accuracy compared with PBLUP. Moreover, it is possible to use relatively low-density SNP panels for genomic prediction without compromising accuracy predictions for resistance against P. salmonis in rainbow trout.

Large-Scale Distributed Bayesian Matrix Factorization using Stochastic Gradient MCMC

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ahn, S.; Korattikara, A.; Liu, N.; Rajan, S.; Welling, M.

2015-01-01

Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid ovrfitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian

On Bayesian Inference under Sampling from Scale Mixtures of Normals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández, C.; Steel, M.F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper considers a Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model under independent sampling from general scale mixtures of Normals.Using a common reference prior, we investigate the validity of Bayesian inference and the existence of posterior moments of the regression and precision

Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

2013-03-01

A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

Bayesian inference of shared recombination hotspots between humans and chimpanzees.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ying; Rannala, Bruce

2014-12-01

Recombination generates variation and facilitates evolution. Recombination (or lack thereof) also contributes to human genetic disease. Methods for mapping genes influencing complex genetic diseases via association rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) in human populations, which is influenced by rates of recombination across the genome. Comparative population genomic analyses of recombination using related primate species can identify factors influencing rates of recombination in humans. Such studies can indicate how variable hotspots for recombination may be both among individuals (or populations) and over evolutionary timescales. Previous studies have suggested that locations of recombination hotspots are not conserved between humans and chimpanzees. We made use of the data sets from recent resequencing projects and applied a Bayesian method for identifying hotspots and estimating recombination rates. We also reanalyzed SNP data sets for regions with known hotspots in humans using samples from the human and chimpanzee. The Bayes factors (BF) of shared recombination hotspots between human and chimpanzee across regions were obtained. Based on the analysis of the aligned regions of human chromosome 21, locations where the two species show evidence of shared recombination hotspots (with high BFs) were identified. Interestingly, previous comparative studies of human and chimpanzee that focused on the known human recombination hotspots within the β-globin and HLA regions did not find overlapping of hotspots. Our results show high BFs of shared hotspots at locations within both regions, and the estimated locations of shared hotspots overlap with the locations of human recombination hotspots obtained from sperm-typing studies. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

Comparison of analyses of the XVth QTLMAS common dataset III: Genomic Estimations of Breeding Values

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Demeure Olivier

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The QTLMAS XVth dataset consisted of pedigree, marker genotypes and quantitative trait performances of animals with a sib family structure. Pedigree and genotypes concerned 3,000 progenies among those 2,000 were phenotyped. The trait was regulated by 8 QTLs which displayed additive, imprinting or epistatic effects. The 1,000 unphenotyped progenies were considered as candidates to selection and their Genomic Estimated Breeding Values (GEBV were evaluated by participants of the XVth QTLMAS workshop. This paper aims at comparing the GEBV estimation results obtained by seven participants to the workshop. Methods From the known QTL genotypes of each candidate, two "true" genomic values (TV were estimated by organizers: the genotypic value of the candidate (TGV and the expectation of its progeny genotypic values (TBV. GEBV were computed by the participants following different statistical methods: random linear models (including BLUP and Ridge Regression, selection variable techniques (LASSO, Elastic Net and Bayesian methods. Accuracy was evaluated by the correlation between TV (TGV or TBV and GEBV presented by participants. Rank correlation of the best 10% of individuals and error in predictions were also evaluated. Bias was tested by regression of TV on GEBV. Results Large differences between methods were found for all criteria and type of genetic values (TGV, TBV. In general, the criteria ranked consistently methods belonging to the same family. Conclusions Bayesian methods - A

Genome-Enabled Prediction of Breeding Values for Feedlot Average Daily Weight Gain in Nelore Cattle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana L. Somavilla

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Nelore is the most economically important cattle breed in Brazil, and the use of genetically improved animals has contributed to increased beef production efficiency. The Brazilian beef feedlot industry has grown considerably in the last decade, so the selection of animals with higher growth rates on feedlot has become quite important. Genomic selection (GS could be used to reduce generation intervals and improve the rate of genetic gains. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prediction of genomic-estimated breeding values (GEBV for average daily weight gain (ADG in 718 feedlot-finished Nelore steers. Analyses of three Bayesian model specifications [Bayesian GBLUP (BGBLUP, BayesA, and BayesCπ] were performed with four genotype panels [Illumina BovineHD BeadChip, TagSNPs, and GeneSeek High- and Low-density indicus (HDi and LDi, respectively]. Estimates of Pearson correlations, regression coefficients, and mean squared errors were used to assess accuracy and bias of predictions. Overall, the BayesCπ model resulted in less biased predictions. Accuracies ranged from 0.18 to 0.27, which are reasonable values given the heritability estimates (from 0.40 to 0.44 and sample size (568 animals in the training population. Furthermore, results from Bos taurus indicus panels were as informative as those from Illumina BovineHD, indicating that they could be used to implement GS at lower costs.

Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

A two step Bayesian approach for genomic prediction of breeding values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahdi Shariati, Mohammad; Sørensen, Peter; Janss, Luc

2012-01-01

. A better alternative could be to form clusters of markers with similar effects where markers in a cluster have a common variance. Therefore, the influence of each marker group of size p on the posterior distribution of the marker variances will be p df. Methods: The simulated data from the 15th QTL......Background: In genomic models that assign an individual variance to each marker, the contribution of one marker to the posterior distribution of the marker variance is only one degree of freedom (df), which introduces many variance parameters with only little information per variance parameter......-MAS workshop were analyzed such that SNP markers were ranked based on their effects and markers with similar estimated effects were grouped together. In step 1, all markers with minor allele frequency more than 0.01 were included in a SNP-BLUP prediction model. In step 2, markers were ranked based...

The use of conflicts in searching Bayesian networks

OpenAIRE

Poole, David L.

2013-01-01

This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorith...

Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

OpenAIRE

Fushiki, Tadayoshi

2005-01-01

We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced framework includes economic performance, operational performance, cost performance, and financial performance. Based on both Bayesian SEM (Bayesian-SEM and Classical SEM (Classical-SEM, it was found that economic performance with both operational performance and cost performance are significantly related to the financial performance index. The four mathematical indices employed are root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error to compare the efficiency of Bayesian-SEM and Classical-SEM in predicting the airline financial performance. The outputs confirmed that the framework with Bayesian prediction delivered a good fit with the data, although the framework predicted with a Classical-SEM approach did not prepare a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between Classical and Bayesian predictions, as well as the potential advantages and caveats with the application of Bayesian approach in airline sustainability studies, are debated.

Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

2015-01-01

A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.

Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

2017-06-01

The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein, Michel C.A.; Modena, Gabriele

2013-01-01

In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent

A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

Science.gov (United States)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

2013-04-01

In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

Marker-based estimation of genetic parameters in genomics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiu Hu

Full Text Available Linear mixed model (LMM analysis has been recently used extensively for estimating additive genetic variances and narrow-sense heritability in many genomic studies. While the LMM analysis is computationally less intensive than the Bayesian algorithms, it remains infeasible for large-scale genomic data sets. In this paper, we advocate the use of a statistical procedure known as symmetric differences squared (SDS as it may serve as a viable alternative when the LMM methods have difficulty or fail to work with large datasets. The SDS procedure is a general and computationally simple method based only on the least squares regression analysis. We carry out computer simulations and empirical analyses to compare the SDS procedure with two commonly used LMM-based procedures. Our results show that the SDS method is not as good as the LMM methods for small data sets, but it becomes progressively better and can match well with the precision of estimation by the LMM methods for data sets with large sample sizes. Its major advantage is that with larger and larger samples, it continues to work with the increasing precision of estimation while the commonly used LMM methods are no longer able to work under our current typical computing capacity. Thus, these results suggest that the SDS method can serve as a viable alternative particularly when analyzing 'big' genomic data sets.

Parametric Bayesian priors and better choice of negative examples improve protein function prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Youngs, Noah; Penfold-Brown, Duncan; Drew, Kevin; Shasha, Dennis; Bonneau, Richard

2013-05-01

Computational biologists have demonstrated the utility of using machine learning methods to predict protein function from an integration of multiple genome-wide data types. Yet, even the best performing function prediction algorithms rely on heuristics for important components of the algorithm, such as choosing negative examples (proteins without a given function) or determining key parameters. The improper choice of negative examples, in particular, can hamper the accuracy of protein function prediction. We present a novel approach for choosing negative examples, using a parameterizable Bayesian prior computed from all observed annotation data, which also generates priors used during function prediction. We incorporate this new method into the GeneMANIA function prediction algorithm and demonstrate improved accuracy of our algorithm over current top-performing function prediction methods on the yeast and mouse proteomes across all metrics tested. Code and Data are available at: http://bonneaulab.bio.nyu.edu/funcprop.html

Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

2012-03-01

Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

Bayesian Estimation of Wave Spectra – Proper Formulation of ABIC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

2007-01-01

It is possible to estimate on-site wave spectra using measured ship responses applied to Bayesian Modelling based on two prior information: the wave spectrum must be smooth both directional-wise and frequency-wise. This paper introduces two hyperparameters into Bayesian Modelling and, hence, a pr...

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for correlations and partial correlations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

We propose a default Bayesian hypothesis test for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The test is a direct application of Bayesian techniques for variable selection in regression models. The test is easy to apply and yields practical advantages that the standard frequentist tests

Systematic search of Bayesian statistics in the field of psychotraumatology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, Rens; Schalken, Naomi; Olff, Miranda

2017-01-01

In many different disciplines there is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. Bayesian methods implement Bayes' theorem, which states that prior beliefs are updated with data, and this process produces updated beliefs about model parameters. The prior is based on how much information we

Rationalizing method of replacement intervals by using Bayesian statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasai, Masao; Notoya, Junichi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki

2007-01-01

This study represents the formulations for rationalizing the replacement intervals of equipments and/or parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) of the parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and compares the optimized intervals by our formulations with those by conventional formulations which uses only representative values of the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The failure data are generated by Monte Carlo simulations since the real failure data can not be available for us. The PDF of PDF parameters are obtained by Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained by likelihood estimation and Bayesian method. We found that the method using PDF by Bayesian method brings longer replacement intervals than one using the representative of the parameters. (author)

Experimental assessment of the accuracy of genomic selection in sugarcane.

Science.gov (United States)

Gouy, M; Rousselle, Y; Bastianelli, D; Lecomte, P; Bonnal, L; Roques, D; Efile, J-C; Rocher, S; Daugrois, J; Toubi, L; Nabeneza, S; Hervouet, C; Telismart, H; Denis, M; Thong-Chane, A; Glaszmann, J C; Hoarau, J-Y; Nibouche, S; Costet, L

2013-10-01

Sugarcane cultivars are interspecific hybrids with an aneuploid, highly heterozygous polyploid genome. The complexity of the sugarcane genome is the main obstacle to the use of marker-assisted selection in sugarcane breeding. Given the promising results of recent studies of plant genomic selection, we explored the feasibility of genomic selection in this complex polyploid crop. Genetic values were predicted in two independent panels, each composed of 167 accessions representing sugarcane genetic diversity worldwide. Accessions were genotyped with 1,499 DArT markers. One panel was phenotyped in Reunion Island and the other in Guadeloupe. Ten traits concerning sugar and bagasse contents, digestibility and composition of the bagasse, plant morphology, and disease resistance were used. We used four statistical predictive models: bayesian LASSO, ridge regression, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and partial least square regression. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed through the correlation between observed and predicted genetic values by cross validation within each panel and between the two panels. We observed equivalent accuracy among the four predictive models for a given trait, and marked differences were observed among traits. Depending on the trait concerned, within-panel cross validation yielded median correlations ranging from 0.29 to 0.62 in the Reunion Island panel and from 0.11 to 0.5 in the Guadeloupe panel. Cross validation between panels yielded correlations ranging from 0.13 for smut resistance to 0.55 for brix. This level of correlations is promising for future implementations. Our results provide the first validation of genomic selection in sugarcane.

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contrasting population-level responses to Pleistocene climatic oscillations in an alpine bat revealed by complete mitochondrial genomes and evolutionary history inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alberdi, Antton; Gilbert, M. Thomas P; Razgour, Orly

2015-01-01

Aim: We used an integrative approach to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the alpine long-eared bat, Plecotus macrobullaris, to test whether the variable effects of Pleistocene climatic oscillations across geographical regions led to contrasting population-level demographic histories within...... a single species. Location: The Western Palaearctic. Methods: We sequenced the complete mitochondrial genomes of 57 individuals from across the distribution of the species. The analysis integrated ecological niche modelling (ENM), approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), measures of genetic diversity...... and Bayesian phylogenetic methods. Results: We identified two deep lineages: a western lineage, restricted to the Pyrenees and the Alps, and an eastern lineage, which expanded across the mountain ranges east of the Dinarides (Croatia). ENM projections of past conditions predicted that climatic suitability...

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

Data set for phylogenetic tree and RAMPAGE Ramachandran plot analysis of SODs in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Xia, Minxuan; Chen, Jie; Deng, Fenni; Yuan, Rui; Zhang, Xiaopei; Shen, Fafu

2016-12-01

The data presented in this paper is supporting the research article "Genome-Wide Analysis of Superoxide Dismutase Gene Family in Gossypium raimondii and G. arboreum" [1]. In this data article, we present phylogenetic tree showing dichotomy with two different clusters of SODs inferred by the Bayesian method of MrBayes (version 3.2.4), "Bayesian phylogenetic inference under mixed models" [2], Ramachandran plots of G. raimondii and G. arboreum SODs, the protein sequence used to generate 3D sructure of proteins and the template accession via SWISS-MODEL server, "SWISS-MODEL: modelling protein tertiary and quaternary structure using evolutionary information." [3] and motif sequences of SODs identified by InterProScan (version 4.8) with the Pfam database, "Pfam: the protein families database" [4].

Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

Science.gov (United States)

Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

2016-01-01

Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

Science.gov (United States)

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng Meng-Zhen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

Hierarchical Bayesian sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2009-09-01

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct sparse images when the observations are obtained from linear transformations and corrupted by an additive white Gaussian noise. Our hierarchical Bayes model is well suited to such naturally sparse image applications as it seamlessly accounts for properties such as sparsity and positivity of the image via appropriate Bayes priors. We propose a prior that is based on a weighted mixture of a positive exponential distribution and a mass at zero. The prior has hyperparameters that are tuned automatically by marginalization over the hierarchical Bayesian model. To overcome the complexity of the posterior distribution, a Gibbs sampling strategy is proposed. The Gibbs samples can be used to estimate the image to be recovered, e.g., by maximizing the estimated posterior distribution. In our fully Bayesian approach, the posteriors of all the parameters are available. Thus, our algorithm provides more information than other previously proposed sparse reconstruction methods that only give a point estimate. The performance of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian sparse reconstruction method is illustrated on synthetic data and real data collected from a tobacco virus sample using a prototype MRFM instrument.

Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

KAUST Repository

Galagali, Nikhil

2015-02-01

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure-such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data.

Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai

2000-01-01

Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...

Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

2003-01-01

textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about