Kendal, W S
2000-04-01
To illustrate how probability-generating functions (PGFs) can be employed to derive a simple probabilistic model for clonogenic survival after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Both repairable and irreparable radiation damage to DNA were assumed to occur by independent (Poisson) processes, at intensities proportional to the irradiation dose. Also, repairable damage was assumed to be either repaired or further (lethally) injured according to a third (Bernoulli) process, with the probability of lethal conversion being directly proportional to dose. Using the algebra of PGFs, these three processes were combined to yield a composite PGF that described the distribution of lethal DNA lesions in irradiated cells. The composite PGF characterized a Poisson distribution with mean, chiD+betaD2, where D was dose and alpha and beta were radiobiological constants. This distribution yielded the conventional linear-quadratic survival equation. To test the composite model, the derived distribution was used to predict the frequencies of multiple chromosomal aberrations in irradiated human lymphocytes. The predictions agreed well with observation. This probabilistic model was consistent with single-hit mechanisms, but it was not consistent with binary misrepair mechanisms. A stochastic model for radiation survival has been constructed from elementary PGFs that exactly yields the linear-quadratic relationship. This approach can be used to investigate other simple probabilistic survival models.
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...
Image scaling curve generation
2012-01-01
The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then
Image scaling curve generation.
2011-01-01
The present invention relates to a method of generating an image scaling curve, where local saliency is detected in a received image. The detected local saliency is then accumulated in the first direction. A final scaling curve is derived from the detected local saliency and the image is then
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Garza, J. [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States); Millwater, H., E-mail: harry.millwater@utsa.edu [University of Texas at San Antonio, Mechanical Engineering, 1 UTSA circle, EB 3.04.50, San Antonio, TX 78249 (United States)
2012-04-15
A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.
Sensitivity of the probability of failure to probability of detection curve regions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garza, J.; Millwater, H.
2016-01-01
Non-destructive inspection (NDI) techniques have been shown to play a vital role in fracture control plans, structural health monitoring, and ensuring availability and reliability of piping, pressure vessels, mechanical and aerospace equipment. Probabilistic fatigue simulations are often used in order to determine the efficacy of an inspection procedure with the NDI method modeled as a probability of detection (POD) curve. These simulations can be used to determine the most advantageous NDI method for a given application. As an aid to this process, a first order sensitivity method of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to regions of the POD curve (lower tail, middle region, right tail) is developed and presented here. The sensitivity method computes the partial derivative of the POF with respect to a change in each region of a POD or multiple POD curves. The sensitivities are computed at no cost by reusing the samples from an existing Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. A numerical example is presented considering single and multiple inspections. - Highlights: • Sensitivities of probability-of-failure to a region of probability-of-detection curve. • The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost. • Sensitivities identify the important region of a POD curve. • Sensitivities can be used as a guide to selecting the optimal POD curve.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garza, J.; Millwater, H.
2012-01-01
A methodology has been developed and demonstrated that can be used to compute the sensitivity of the probability-of-failure (POF) with respect to the parameters of inspection processes that are simulated using probability of detection (POD) curves. The formulation is such that the probabilistic sensitivities can be obtained at negligible cost using sampling methods by reusing the samples used to compute the POF. As a result, the methodology can be implemented for negligible cost in a post-processing non-intrusive manner thereby facilitating implementation with existing or commercial codes. The formulation is generic and not limited to any specific random variables, fracture mechanics formulation, or any specific POD curve as long as the POD is modeled parametrically. Sensitivity estimates for the cases of different POD curves at multiple inspections, and the same POD curves at multiple inspections have been derived. Several numerical examples are presented and show excellent agreement with finite difference estimates with significant computational savings. - Highlights: ► Sensitivity of the probability-of-failure with respect to the probability-of-detection curve. ►The sensitivities are computed with negligible cost using Monte Carlo sampling. ► The change in the POF due to a change in the POD curve parameters can be easily estimated.
Optimal sample size for probability of detection curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Annis, Charles; Gandossi, Luca; Martin, Oliver
2013-01-01
Highlights: • We investigate sample size requirement to develop probability of detection curves. • We develop simulations to determine effective inspection target sizes, number and distribution. • We summarize these findings and provide guidelines for the NDE practitioner. -- Abstract: The use of probability of detection curves to quantify the reliability of non-destructive examination (NDE) systems is common in the aeronautical industry, but relatively less so in the nuclear industry, at least in European countries. Due to the nature of the components being inspected, sample sizes tend to be much lower. This makes the manufacturing of test pieces with representative flaws, in sufficient numbers, so to draw statistical conclusions on the reliability of the NDT system under investigation, quite costly. The European Network for Inspection and Qualification (ENIQ) has developed an inspection qualification methodology, referred to as the ENIQ Methodology. It has become widely used in many European countries and provides assurance on the reliability of NDE systems, but only qualitatively. The need to quantify the output of inspection qualification has become more important as structural reliability modelling and quantitative risk-informed in-service inspection methodologies become more widely used. A measure of the NDE reliability is necessary to quantify risk reduction after inspection and probability of detection (POD) curves provide such a metric. The Joint Research Centre, Petten, The Netherlands supported ENIQ by investigating the question of the sample size required to determine a reliable POD curve. As mentioned earlier manufacturing of test pieces with defects that are typically found in nuclear power plants (NPPs) is usually quite expensive. Thus there is a tendency to reduce sample sizes, which in turn increases the uncertainty associated with the resulting POD curve. The main question in conjunction with POS curves is the appropriate sample size. Not
Optimal Sample Size for Probability of Detection Curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Annis, Charles; Gandossi, Luca; Martin, Oliver
2012-01-01
The use of Probability of Detection (POD) curves to quantify NDT reliability is common in the aeronautical industry, but relatively less so in the nuclear industry. The European Network for Inspection Qualification's (ENIQ) Inspection Qualification Methodology is based on the concept of Technical Justification, a document assembling all the evidence to assure that the NDT system in focus is indeed capable of finding the flaws for which it was designed. This methodology has become widely used in many countries, but the assurance it provides is usually of qualitative nature. The need to quantify the output of inspection qualification has become more important, especially as structural reliability modelling and quantitative risk-informed in-service inspection methodologies become more widely used. To credit the inspections in structural reliability evaluations, a measure of the NDT reliability is necessary. A POD curve provides such metric. In 2010 ENIQ developed a technical report on POD curves, reviewing the statistical models used to quantify inspection reliability. Further work was subsequently carried out to investigate the issue of optimal sample size for deriving a POD curve, so that adequate guidance could be given to the practitioners of inspection reliability. Manufacturing of test pieces with cracks that are representative of real defects found in nuclear power plants (NPP) can be very expensive. Thus there is a tendency to reduce sample sizes and in turn reduce the conservatism associated with the POD curve derived. Not much guidance on the correct sample size can be found in the published literature, where often qualitative statements are given with no further justification. The aim of this paper is to summarise the findings of such work. (author)
Curvature Entropy for Curved Profile Generation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Koichiro Sato
2012-03-01
Full Text Available In a curved surface design, the overall shape features that emerge from combinations of shape elements are important. However, controlling the features of the overall shape in curved profiles is difficult using conventional microscopic shape information such as dimension. Herein two types of macroscopic shape information, curvature entropy and quadrature curvature entropy, quantitatively represent the features of the overall shape. The curvature entropy is calculated by the curvature distribution, and represents the complexity of a shape (one of the overall shape features. The quadrature curvature entropy is an improvement of the curvature entropy by introducing a Markov process to evaluate the continuity of a curvature and to approximate human cognition of the shape. Additionally, a shape generation method using a genetic algorithm as a calculator and the entropy as a shape generation index is presented. Finally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated using the side view of an automobile as a design example.
Three-generation neutrino oscillations in curved spacetime
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Yu-Hao, E-mail: yhzhang1994@gmail.com; Li, Xue-Qian, E-mail: lixq@nankai.edu.cn
2016-10-15
Three-generation MSW effect in curved spacetime is studied and a brief discussion on the gravitational correction to the neutrino self-energy is given. The modified mixing parameters and corresponding conversion probabilities of neutrinos after traveling through celestial objects of constant densities are obtained. The method to distinguish between the normal hierarchy and inverted hierarchy is discussed in this framework. Due to the gravitational redshift of energy, in some extreme situations, the resonance energy of neutrinos might be shifted noticeably and the gravitational effect on the self-energy of neutrino becomes significant at the vicinities of spacetime singularities.
Calculation of magnetization curves and probability distribution for monoclinic and uniaxial systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sobh, Hala A.; Aly, Samy H.; Yehia, Sherif
2013-01-01
We present the application of a simple classical statistical mechanics-based model to selected monoclinic and hexagonal model systems. In this model, we treat the magnetization as a classical vector whose angular orientation is dictated by the laws of equilibrium classical statistical mechanics. We calculate for these anisotropic systems, the magnetization curves, energy landscapes and probability distribution for different sets of relevant parameters and magnetic fields of different strengths and directions. Our results demonstrate a correlation between the most probable orientation of the magnetization vector, the system's parameters, and the external magnetic field. -- Highlights: ► We calculate magnetization curves and probability angular distribution of the magnetization. ► The magnetization curves are consistent with probability results for the studied systems. ► Monoclinic and hexagonal systems behave differently due to their different anisotropies
ON THE TOPOLOGY OF MECHANISMS DESIGNED FOR CURVES GENERATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MEREUTA Elena
2008-07-01
Full Text Available The paper presents some mechanisms used for generating simple or complex curves. The mechanisms are shown in different positions and for some special curves the demonstrations are performed.
Curvature Entropy for Curved Profile Generation
Ujiie, Yoshiki; Kato, Takeo; Sato, Koichiro; Matsuoka, Yoshiyuki
2012-01-01
In a curved surface design, the overall shape features that emerge from combinations of shape elements are important. However, controlling the features of the overall shape in curved profiles is difficult using conventional microscopic shape information such as dimension. Herein two types of macroscopic shape information, curvature entropy and quadrature curvature entropy, quantitatively represent the features of the overall shape. The curvature entropy is calculated by the curvature distribu...
Algorithm for Automatic Generation of Curved and Compound Twills
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
WANG Mei-zhen; WANG Fu-mei; WANG Shan-yuan
2005-01-01
A new arithmetic using matrix left-shift functions for the quicker generation of curved and compound twills is introduced in this paper. A matrix model for the generation of regular, curved and compound twill structures is established and its computing simulation realization are elaborated. Examples of the algorithm applying in the simulation and the automatic generation of curved and compound twills in fabric CAD are obtained.
Probability- and curve-based fractal reconstruction on 2D DEM terrain profile
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lai, F.-J.; Huang, Y.M.
2009-01-01
Data compression and reconstruction has been playing important roles in information science and engineering. As part of them, image compression and reconstruction that mainly deal with image data set reduction for storage or transmission and data set restoration with least loss is still a topic deserved a great deal of works to focus on. In this paper we propose a new scheme in comparison with the well-known Improved Douglas-Peucker (IDP) method to extract characteristic or feature points of two-dimensional digital elevation model (2D DEM) terrain profile to compress data set. As for reconstruction in use of fractal interpolation, we propose a probability-based method to speed up the fractal interpolation execution to a rate as high as triple or even ninefold of the regular. In addition, a curve-based method is proposed in the study to determine the vertical scaling factor that much affects the generation of the interpolated data points to significantly improve the reconstruction performance. Finally, an evaluation is made to show the advantage of employing the proposed new method to extract characteristic points associated with our novel fractal interpolation scheme.
Research of Cubic Bezier Curve NC Interpolation Signal Generator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shijun Ji
2014-08-01
Full Text Available Interpolation technology is the core of the computer numerical control (CNC system, and the precision and stability of the interpolation algorithm directly affect the machining precision and speed of CNC system. Most of the existing numerical control interpolation technology can only achieve circular arc interpolation, linear interpolation or parabola interpolation, but for the numerical control (NC machining of parts with complicated surface, it needs to establish the mathematical model and generate the curved line and curved surface outline of parts and then discrete the generated parts outline into a large amount of straight line or arc to carry on the processing, which creates the complex program and a large amount of code, so it inevitably introduce into the approximation error. All these factors affect the machining accuracy, surface roughness and machining efficiency. The stepless interpolation of cubic Bezier curve controlled by analog signal is studied in this paper, the tool motion trajectory of Bezier curve can be directly planned out in CNC system by adjusting control points, and then these data were put into the control motor which can complete the precise feeding of Bezier curve. This method realized the improvement of CNC trajectory controlled ability from the simple linear and circular arc to the complex project curve, and it provides a new way for economy realizing the curve surface parts with high quality and high efficiency machining.
On a framework for generating PoD curves assisted by numerical simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Subair, S. Mohamed, E-mail: prajagopal@iitm.ac.in; Agrawal, Shweta, E-mail: prajagopal@iitm.ac.in; Balasubramaniam, Krishnan, E-mail: prajagopal@iitm.ac.in; Rajagopal, Prabhu, E-mail: prajagopal@iitm.ac.in [Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Chennai, T.N. (India); Kumar, Anish; Rao, Purnachandra B.; Tamanna, Jayakumar [Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Metallurgy and Materials Group, Kalpakkam, T.N. (India)
2015-03-31
The Probability of Detection (PoD) curve method has emerged as an important tool for the assessment of the performance of NDE techniques, a topic of particular interest to the nuclear industry where inspection qualification is very important. The conventional experimental means of generating PoD curves though, can be expensive, requiring large data sets (covering defects and test conditions), and equipment and operator time. Several methods of achieving faster estimates for PoD curves using physics-based modelling have been developed to address this problem. Numerical modelling techniques are also attractive, especially given the ever-increasing computational power available to scientists today. Here we develop procedures for obtaining PoD curves, assisted by numerical simulation and based on Bayesian statistics. Numerical simulations are performed using Finite Element analysis for factors that are assumed to be independent, random and normally distributed. PoD curves so generated are compared with experiments on austenitic stainless steel (SS) plates with artificially created notches. We examine issues affecting the PoD curve generation process including codes, standards, distribution of defect parameters and the choice of the noise threshold. We also study the assumption of normal distribution for signal response parameters and consider strategies for dealing with data that may be more complex or sparse to justify this. These topics are addressed and illustrated through the example case of generation of PoD curves for pulse-echo ultrasonic inspection of vertical surface-breaking cracks in SS plates.
Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment
Sprenger, Amber M.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Atkins, Sharona M.; Franco-Watkins, Ana M.; Thomas, Rick P.; Lange, Nicholas; Abbs, Brandon
2011-01-01
We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas et al., 2008) that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect the degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention during encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments. PMID:21734897
Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amber M Sprenger
2011-06-01
Full Text Available We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008 that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention at encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments.
Computing exact bundle compliance control charts via probability generating functions.
Chen, Binchao; Matis, Timothy; Benneyan, James
2016-06-01
Compliance to evidenced-base practices, individually and in 'bundles', remains an important focus of healthcare quality improvement for many clinical conditions. The exact probability distribution of composite bundle compliance measures used to develop corresponding control charts and other statistical tests is based on a fairly large convolution whose direct calculation can be computationally prohibitive. Various series expansions and other approximation approaches have been proposed, each with computational and accuracy tradeoffs, especially in the tails. This same probability distribution also arises in other important healthcare applications, such as for risk-adjusted outcomes and bed demand prediction, with the same computational difficulties. As an alternative, we use probability generating functions to rapidly obtain exact results and illustrate the improved accuracy and detection over other methods. Numerical testing across a wide range of applications demonstrates the computational efficiency and accuracy of this approach.
Automatic generation and analysis of solar cell IV curves
Kraft, Steven M.; Jones, Jason C.
2014-06-03
A photovoltaic system includes multiple strings of solar panels and a device presenting a DC load to the strings of solar panels. Output currents of the strings of solar panels may be sensed and provided to a computer that generates current-voltage (IV) curves of the strings of solar panels. Output voltages of the string of solar panels may be sensed at the string or at the device presenting the DC load. The DC load may be varied. Output currents of the strings of solar panels responsive to the variation of the DC load are sensed to generate IV curves of the strings of solar panels. IV curves may be compared and analyzed to evaluate performance of and detect problems with a string of solar panels.
PLANAR MECHANISMS USED FOR GENERATING CURVE LINE TRANSLATION MOTION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ovidiu ANTONESCU
2015-05-01
Full Text Available The curve line translation motion can be generated in the particular form of the circular translation, through mono-mobile mechanisms with articulated links of simple parallelogram type (with a fixed side or through transmission with toothed belt with a fixed wheel. Also, the circular translation can be generated through planar mechanisms with two cylindrical gears with a fixed central wheel. It is mentioned that the two cylindrical gearings of the Fergusson mechanisms are both exterior and interior.
Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L.
1997-01-01
This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regarding uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses
Sharp Bounds by Probability-Generating Functions and Variable Drift
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Doerr, Benjamin; Fouz, Mahmoud; Witt, Carsten
2011-01-01
We introduce to the runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms two powerful techniques: probability-generating functions and variable drift analysis. They are shown to provide a clean framework for proving sharp upper and lower bounds. As an application, we improve the results by Doerr et al....... (GECCO 2010) in several respects. First, the upper bound on the expected running time of the most successful quasirandom evolutionary algorithm for the OneMax function is improved from 1.28nln n to 0.982nlnn, which breaks the barrier of nln n posed by coupon-collector processes. Compared to the classical...
A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for APR1000+
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ha, Gag-Hyeon; Kim, Dae-Hun [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, cutting CO{sub 2} emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the APR1000+ development is to ensure export competitiveness in the developing countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. To that end, APR1000+(1,000MWe, 3.5 generation) will be developed based on APR+ (1,500MWe, 3.5 generation). And comparing to OPR1000(Korean Standard Nuclear power Plant, 2.5 generation), APR1000+ have many design features such as the 60 year design life time, comprehensive site requirement of 0.3g seismic design, stability improvement, operability improvement and provisions for severe accidents. In this simulation, the results of generating cost for APR1000+ preliminary conceptual design using a probability method was shown to be 48.37 ~ 74.22 won/kWh(median value 56.51 won/kWh). Those of OPR1000 was 42.08 ~ 61.77 won/kWh(median value 48.63 won/kWh). APR1000+ has -16.2% cost advantage over OPR1000 nuclear power plant. The main reason of this results is due to adding several safety designs.
Shiryaev, A N
1996-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables
Surfactant Effect on the Average Flow Generation Near Curved Interface
Klimenko, Lyudmila; Lyubimov, Dmitry
2018-02-01
The present work is devoted to the average flow generation near curved interface with a surfactant adsorbed on the surface layer. The investigation was carried out for a liquid drop embedded in a viscous liquid with a different density. The liquid flows inside and outside the drop are generated by small amplitude and high frequency vibrations. Surfactant exchange between the drop surface and the surrounding liquid is limited by the process of adsorption-desorption. It was assumed that the surfactant is soluble in the surrounding liquid, but not soluble in the liquid drop. Surrounding liquid and the liquid in the drop are considered incompressible. Normal and shear viscous stresses balance at the interface is performed under the condition that the film thickness of the adsorbed surfactant is negligible. The problem is solved under assumption that the shape of the drop in the presence of adsorbed surfactant remains spherical symmetry. The effective boundary conditions for the tangential velocity jump and shear stress jump, describing the above generation have been obtained by matched asymptotic expansions method. The conditions under which the drop surface can be considered as a quasi-solid are determined. It is shown that in the case of the significant effect of surfactant on the surface tension, the dominant mechanism for the generation is the Schlichting mechanisms under vibrations.
Solar updraft power generator with radial and curved vanes
Hafizh, Hadyan; Hamsan, Raziff; Zamri, Aidil Azlan Ahmad; Keprawi, Mohamad Fairuz Mohamad; Shirato, Hiromichi
2018-02-01
Solar radiation is the largest source of energy available on earth and the solar updraft power generator (SUPG) is a renewable energy facility capable of harnessing its abundant power. Unlike the conventional wind turbines that harness natural wind in the atmosphere and often encounter with the intermittent issue or even complete cut-off from airflow, the SUPG creates artificial wind as a result of solar-induced convective flows. However, the SUPG has an inherent low total efficiency due to the conversion of thermal energy into pressure energy. Acknowledging the low efficiency and considering its potential as a renewable energy facility, the current work aims to increase the total efficiency by installing a series of guide walls inside the collector. Two types of guide walls were used i.e. radial and curved vanes. The result with curved vanes showed that the updraft velocity is higher compare to those without vanes. About 18% and 64% improvement of updraft velocity and mechanical power were attained respectively. Furthermore, it was observed that the role of radial vanes configuration was more to produce a smooth updraft velocity profile rather than increasing the total efficiency.
Considerations of "Combined Probability of Injury" in the next-generation USA frontal NCAP.
Laituri, Tony R; Henry, Scott; Sullivan, Kaye; Nutt, Marvin
2010-08-01
The numerical basis for assigning star ratings in the next-generation USA New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) for frontal impacts was assessed. That basis, the Combined Probability of Injury, or CPI, is the probability of an occupant sustaining an injury to any of the specified body regions. For an NCAP test, a CPI value is computed by (a) using risk curves to convert body-region responses from a test dummy into body-region risks and (b) using a theoretical, overarching CPI equation to convert those separate body-region risks into a single CPI value. Though the general concept of applying a CPI equation to assign star ratings has existed since 1994, there will be numerous changes to the 2011 frontal NCAP: there will be two additional body regions (n = 4 vs. 2), the injury probabilities will be evaluated for lower-severity (more likely) injury levels, and some of the occupant responses will change. These changes could yield more disperse CPIs that could yield more disperse ratings. However, the reasons for this increased dispersion should be consistent with real-world findings. Related assessments were the topic of this two-part study, focused on drivers. In Part 1, the CPI equation was assessed without applying risk curves. Specifically, field injury probabilities for the four body regions were used as inputs to the CPI equation, and the resulting equation-produced CPIs were compared with the field CPIs. In Part 2, subject to analyses of test dummy responses from recent NCAP tests, the effect of risk curve choice on CPIs was assessed. Specifically, dispersion statistics were compared for CPIs based on various underlying risk curves applied to data from 2001-2005 model year vehicles (n = 183). From Part 1, the theoretical CPI equation for four body regions demonstrated acceptable fidelity when provided field injury rates (R(2)= 0.92), with the equation-based CPIs being approximately 12 percent lower than those of ideal correlation. From Part 2, the 2011 NCAP protocol
A generative Bezier curve model for surf-zone tracking in coastal image sequences
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Burke, Michael G
2017-09-01
Full Text Available This work introduces a generative Bezier curve model suitable for surf-zone curve tracking in coastal image sequences. The model combines an adaptive curve parametrised by control points governed by local random walks with a global sinusoidal motion...
Bandwidth increasing mechanism by introducing a curve fixture to the cantilever generator
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Liu, Weiqun, E-mail: weiqunliu@home.swjtu.edu.cn; Liu, Congzhi; Ren, Bingyu; Zhu, Qiao; Hu, Guangdi [School of Mechanical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, 610031 Chengdu (China); Yang, Weiqing [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, 610031 Chengdu (China)
2016-07-25
A nonlinear wideband generator architecture by clamping the cantilever beam generator with a curve fixture is proposed. Devices with different nonlinear stiffness can be obtained by properly choosing the fixture curve according to the design requirements. Three available generator types are presented and discussed for polynomial curves. Experimental investigations show that the proposed mechanism effectively extends the operation bandwidth with good power performance. Especially, the simplicity and easy feasibility allow the mechanism to be widely applied for vibration generators in different scales and environments.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qin, X.; Zhang, S. D. [Qufu Normal University, Qufu (China)
2014-12-15
The six doublet and the two quartet electronic states ({sup 2}Σ{sup +}(2), {sup 2}Σ{sup -}, {sup 2}Π(2), {sup 2}Δ, {sup 4}Σ{sup -}, and {sup 4}Π) of the OH radical have been studied using the multi-reference configuration interaction (MRCI) method where the Davidson correction, core-valence interaction and relativistic effect are considered with large basis sets of aug-cc-pv5z, aug-cc-pcv5z, and cc-pv5z-DK, respectively. Potential energy curves (PECs) and dipole moment functions are also calculated for these states for internuclear distances ranging from 0.05 nm to 0.80 nm. All possible vibrational levels and rotational constants for the bound state X{sup 2}Π and A{sup 2}Σ{sup +} of OH are predicted by numerical solving the radial Schroedinger equation through the Level program, and spectroscopic parameters, which are in good agreements with experimental results, are obtained. Transition dipole moments between the ground state X{sup 2}Π and other excited states are also computed using MRCI, and the transition probability, lifetime, and Franck-Condon factors for the A{sup 2}Σ{sup +} - X{sup 2}Π transition are discussed and compared with existing experimental values.
Steam generator tubes rupture probability estimation - study of the axially cracked tube case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mavko, B.; Cizelj, L.; Roussel, G.
1992-01-01
The objective of the present study is to estimate the probability of a steam generator tube rupture due to the unstable propagation of axial through-wall cracks during a hypothetical accident. For this purpose the probabilistic fracture mechanics model was developed taking into account statistical distributions of influencing parameters. A numerical example considering a typical steam generator seriously affected by axial stress corrosion cracking in the roll transition area, is presented; it indicates the change of rupture probability with different assumptions focusing mostly on tubesheet reinforcing factor, crack propagation rate and crack detection probability. 8 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Jim W.; Lawry, Jonathan
2004-01-01
Random set theory provides a convenient mechanism for representing uncertain knowledge including probabilistic and set-based information, and extending it through a function. This paper focuses upon the situation when the available information is in terms of coherent lower and upper probabilities, which are encountered, for example, when a probability distribution is specified by interval parameters. We propose an Iterative Rescaling Method (IRM) for constructing a random set with corresponding belief and plausibility measures that are a close outer approximation to the lower and upper probabilities. The approach is compared with the discrete approximation method of Williamson and Downs (sometimes referred to as the p-box), which generates a closer approximation to lower and upper cumulative probability distributions but in most cases a less accurate approximation to the lower and upper probabilities on the remainder of the power set. Four combination methods are compared by application to example random sets generated using the IRM
Generating prior probabilities for classifiers of brain tumours using belief networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arvanitis Theodoros N
2007-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous methods for classifying brain tumours based on magnetic resonance spectra and imaging have been presented in the last 15 years. Generally, these methods use supervised machine learning to develop a classifier from a database of cases for which the diagnosis is already known. However, little has been published on developing classifiers based on mixed modalities, e.g. combining imaging information with spectroscopy. In this work a method of generating probabilities of tumour class from anatomical location is presented. Methods The method of "belief networks" is introduced as a means of generating probabilities that a tumour is any given type. The belief networks are constructed using a database of paediatric tumour cases consisting of data collected over five decades; the problems associated with using this data are discussed. To verify the usefulness of the networks, an application of the method is presented in which prior probabilities were generated and combined with a classification of tumours based solely on MRS data. Results Belief networks were constructed from a database of over 1300 cases. These can be used to generate a probability that a tumour is any given type. Networks are presented for astrocytoma grades I and II, astrocytoma grades III and IV, ependymoma, pineoblastoma, primitive neuroectodermal tumour (PNET, germinoma, medulloblastoma, craniopharyngioma and a group representing rare tumours, "other". Using the network to generate prior probabilities for classification improves the accuracy when compared with generating prior probabilities based on class prevalence. Conclusion Bayesian belief networks are a simple way of using discrete clinical information to generate probabilities usable in classification. The belief network method can be robust to incomplete datasets. Inclusion of a priori knowledge is an effective way of improving classification of brain tumours by non-invasive methods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sakura Sato
2017-04-01
Conclusions: Measurements of sIgE against egg, milk, and wheat as determined by 3gAllergy may be used as a tool to facilitate the diagnosis of food allergy in subjects with suspected food allergies. However, these probability curves should not be applied interchangeably between different assays.
The S-curve for forecasting waste generation in construction projects.
Lu, Weisheng; Peng, Yi; Chen, Xi; Skitmore, Martin; Zhang, Xiaoling
2016-10-01
Forecasting construction waste generation is the yardstick of any effort by policy-makers, researchers, practitioners and the like to manage construction and demolition (C&D) waste. This paper develops and tests an S-curve model to indicate accumulative waste generation as a project progresses. Using 37,148 disposal records generated from 138 building projects in Hong Kong in four consecutive years from January 2011 to June 2015, a wide range of potential S-curve models are examined, and as a result, the formula that best fits the historical data set is found. The S-curve model is then further linked to project characteristics using artificial neural networks (ANNs) so that it can be used to forecast waste generation in future construction projects. It was found that, among the S-curve models, cumulative logistic distribution is the best formula to fit the historical data. Meanwhile, contract sum, location, public-private nature, and duration can be used to forecast construction waste generation. The study provides contractors with not only an S-curve model to forecast overall waste generation before a project commences, but also with a detailed baseline to benchmark and manage waste during the course of construction. The major contribution of this paper is to the body of knowledge in the field of construction waste generation forecasting. By examining it with an S-curve model, the study elevates construction waste management to a level equivalent to project cost management where the model has already been readily accepted as a standard tool. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The strategy curve. A method for representing and interpreting generator bidding strategies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lucas, N.; Taylor, P.
1995-01-01
The pool is the novel trading arrangement at the heart of the privatized electricity market in England and Wales. This central role in the new system makes it crucial that it is seen to function efficiently. Unfortunately, it is governed by a set of complex rules, which leads to a lack of transparency, and this makes monitoring of its operation difficult. This paper seeks to provide a method for illuminating one aspect of the pool, that of generator bidding behaviour. We introduce the concept of a strategy curve, which is a concise device for representing generator bidding strategies. This curve has the appealing characteristic of directly revealing any deviation in the bid price of a genset from the costs of generating electricity. After a brief discussion about what constitutes price and cost in this context we present a number of strategy curves for different days and provide some interpretation of their form, based in part on our earlier work with game theory. (author)
Some possible causes and probability of leakages in LMFBR steam generators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bolt, P.R.
1984-01-01
Relevant operational experience with steam generators for process and conventional plant and thermal and fast reactors is reviewed. Possible causes of water/steam leakages into sodium/gas are identified and data is given on the conditions necessary for failure, leakage probability and type of leakage path. (author)
Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark; Skaggs, Richard; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Ruby
2018-02-01
There is a renewed focus on the design of infrastructure resilient to extreme hydrometeorological events. While precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used as part of infrastructure design, a large percentage of peak runoff events in snow-dominated regions are caused by snowmelt, particularly during rain-on-snow (ROS) events. In these regions, precipitation-based IDF curves may lead to substantial overestimation/underestimation of design basis events and subsequent overdesign/underdesign of infrastructure. To overcome this deficiency, we proposed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface. We compared NG-IDF curves to standard precipitation-based IDF curves for estimates of extreme events at 376 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States that each had at least 30 years of high-quality records. We found standard precipitation-based IDF curves at 45% of the stations were subject to underdesign, many with significant underestimation of 100 year extreme events, for which the precipitation-based IDF curves can underestimate water potentially available for runoff by as much as 125% due to snowmelt and ROS events. The regions with the greatest potential for underdesign were in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the Middle and Southern Rockies. We also found the potential for overdesign at 20% of the stations, primarily in the Middle Rockies and Arizona mountains. These results demonstrate the need to consider snow processes in the development of IDF curves, and they suggest use of the more robust NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated environments.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Sun, Ning [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Wigmosta, Mark [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Distinguished Faculty Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle Washington United States; Skaggs, Richard [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Hou, Zhangshuan [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Leung, Ruby [Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States
2018-02-01
There is a renewed focus on the design of infrastructure resilient to extreme hydrometeorological events. While precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used as part of infrastructure design, a large percentage of peak runoff events in snow-dominated regions are caused by snowmelt, particularly during rain-on-snow (ROS) events. In these regions, precipitation-based IDF curves may lead to substantial over-/under-estimation of design basis events and subsequent over-/under-design of infrastructure. To overcome this deficiency, we proposed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface. We compared NG-IDF curves to standard precipitation-based IDF curves for estimates of extreme events at 376 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States that each had at least 30 years of high-quality records. We found standard precipitation-based IDF curves at 45% of the stations were subject to under-design, many with significant under-estimation of 100-year extreme events, for which the precipitation-based IDF curves can underestimate water potentially available for runoff by as much as 125% due to snowmelt and ROS events. The regions with the greatest potential for under-design were in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the Middle and Southern Rockies. We also found the potential for over-design at 20% of the stations, primarily in the Middle Rockies and Arizona mountains. These results demonstrate the need to consider snow processes in the development of IDF curves, and they suggest use of the more robust NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated environments.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J.
2012-01-01
Greenhouse gas (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO x , VOC, PM 10 , PM 2.5 and SO x , hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life-cycle modeling with GREET.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)
2012-07-06
Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life
CURVES AND AESTHETIC SURFACES GENERATED BY THE R-R-RTR MECHANISM
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liliana LUCA
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Let’s consider a mechanism having two driving elements with revolving movements and a RTR dyad, with elements of null length and aesthetic tracks of a point are determined on a rod, for various linear movement laws of driving elements. The generated curves revolve around x and y axes and aesthetic surfaces result.
The relative impact of sizing errors on steam generator tube failure probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cizelj, L.; Dvorsek, T.
1998-01-01
The Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking (ODSCC) at tube support plates is currently the major degradation mechanism affecting the steam generator tubes made of Inconel 600. This caused development and licensing of degradation specific maintenance approaches, which addressed two main failure modes of the degraded piping: tube rupture; and excessive leakage through degraded tubes. A methodology aiming at assessing the efficiency of a given set of possible maintenance approaches has already been proposed by the authors. It pointed out better performance of the degradation specific over generic approaches in (1) lower probability of single and multiple steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), (2) lower estimated accidental leak rates and (3) less tubes plugged. A sensitivity analysis was also performed pointing out the relative contributions of uncertain input parameters to the tube rupture probabilities. The dominant contribution was assigned to the uncertainties inherent to the regression models used to correlate the defect size and tube burst pressure. The uncertainties, which can be estimated from the in-service inspections, are further analysed in this paper. The defect growth was found to have significant and to some extent unrealistic impact on the probability of single tube rupture. Since the defect growth estimates were based on the past inspection records they strongly depend on the sizing errors. Therefore, an attempt was made to filter out the sizing errors and to arrive at more realistic estimates of the defect growth. The impact of different assumptions regarding sizing errors on the tube rupture probability was studied using a realistic numerical example. The data used is obtained from a series of inspection results from Krsko NPP with 2 Westinghouse D-4 steam generators. The results obtained are considered useful in safety assessment and maintenance of affected steam generators. (author)
Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.
1980-01-01
Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.
Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonas eMaziero
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in many areas of knowledge. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.
Serôdio, João; Ezequiel, João; Frommlet, Jörg; Laviale, Martin; Lavaud, Johann
2013-11-01
Light-response curves (LCs) of chlorophyll fluorescence are widely used in plant physiology. Most commonly, LCs are generated sequentially, exposing the same sample to a sequence of distinct actinic light intensities. These measurements are not independent, as the response to each new light level is affected by the light exposure history experienced during previous steps of the LC, an issue particularly relevant in the case of the popular rapid light curves. In this work, we demonstrate the proof of concept of a new method for the rapid generation of LCs from nonsequential, temporally independent fluorescence measurements. The method is based on the combined use of sample illumination with digitally controlled, spatially separated beams of actinic light and a fluorescence imaging system. It allows the generation of a whole LC, including a large number of actinic light steps and adequate replication, within the time required for a single measurement (and therefore named "single-pulse light curve"). This method is illustrated for the generation of LCs of photosystem II quantum yield, relative electron transport rate, and nonphotochemical quenching on intact plant leaves exhibiting distinct light responses. This approach makes it also possible to easily characterize the integrated dynamic light response of a sample by combining the measurement of LCs (actinic light intensity is varied while measuring time is fixed) with induction/relaxation kinetics (actinic light intensity is fixed and the response is followed over time), describing both how the response to light varies with time and how the response kinetics varies with light intensity.
Meshram, S. Gajbhiye; Sharma, S. K.; Tignath, S.
2017-07-01
Watershed is an ideal unit for planning and management of land and water resources (Gajbhiye et al., IEEE international conference on advances in technology and engineering (ICATE), Bombay, vol 1, issue 9, pp 23-25, 2013a; Gajbhiye et al., Appl Water Sci 4(1):51-61, 2014a; Gajbhiye et al., J Geol Soc India (SCI-IF 0.596) 84(2):192-196, 2014b). This study aims to generate the curve number, using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) and the effect of slope on curve number values. The study was carried out in Kanhaiya Nala watershed located in Satna district of Madhya Pradesh. Soil map, Land Use/Land cover and slope map were generated in GIS Environment. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions were selected from Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) standard table. Curve number (CN) is an index developed by the NRCS, to represent the potential for storm water runoff within a drainage area. The CN for a drainage basin is estimated using a combination of land use, soil, and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). In present study effect of slope on CN values were determined. The result showed that the CN unadjusted value are higher in comparison to CN adjusted with slope. Remote sensing and GIS is very reliable technique for the preparation of most of the input data required by the SCS curve number model.
Generation of large-scale PV scenarios using aggregated power curves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio
2017-01-01
The contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) power to the generation is becoming more relevant in modern power system. Therefore, there is a need to model the variability large-scale PV generation accurately. This paper presents a novel methodology to generate regional PV scenarios based...... on aggregated power curves rather than traditional physical PV conversion models. Our approach is based on hourly mesoscale reanalysis irradiation data and power measurements and do not require additional variables such as ambient temperature or wind speed. It was used to simulate the PV generation...... on the German system between 2012 and 2015 showing high levels of correlation with actual measurements (93.02–97.60%) and small deviations from the expected capacity factors (0.02–1.80%). Therefore, we are confident about the ability of the proposed model to accurately generate realistic large-scale PV...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Takagi, T.; Miki, K.; Chen, B.C.J.; Sha, W.T.
1985-01-01
A new method is presented for numerically generating boundary-fitted coordinate systems for arbitrarily curved surfaces. The three-dimensional surface has been expressed by functions of two parameters using the geometrical modeling techniques in computer graphics. This leads to new quasi-one- and two-dimensional elliptic partial differential equations for coordinate transformation. Since the equations involve the derivatives of the surface expressions, the grids geneated by the equations distribute on the surface depending on its slope and curvature. A computer program GRID-CS based on the method was developed and applied to a surface of the second order, a torus and a surface of a primary containment vessel for a nuclear reactor. These applications confirm that GRID-CS is a convenient and efficient tool for grid generation on arbitrarily curved surfaces
Interaction between daily load demand curve and management of hydro-thermal generation system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granelli, G.; Montagna, M.; Pasini, G.; Innorta, M.; Marannino, P.
1993-01-01
The influence that the behaviour of the daily load demand curve has on the management of a hydro-thermal generation system is considered. The aim of this paper is to show the improvements that can be achieved by suitable load management techniques capable of flattening the load demand curve. The analysis is carried out by using a hydro-thermal scheduling program and a thermal unit dynamic dispatch procedure. The possibility of properly re-committing the available thermal units is also taken into account. The economical and technical convenience of shutting down less economical thermal units operating near the lower generations limits is verified. Finally, some considerations are made about the possible use of the thermal generation incremental costs as a tool for planning the end users' kWh prices, even in the short term. The results refer to a system with characteristics similar to those of the Italian one. In determining the daily load demand curves, the characteristics of load demand in Italy as well as in other European countries are taken into account
Statistically generated weighted curve fit of residual functions for modal analysis of structures
Bookout, P. S.
1995-01-01
A statistically generated weighting function for a second-order polynomial curve fit of residual functions has been developed. The residual flexibility test method, from which a residual function is generated, is a procedure for modal testing large structures in an external constraint-free environment to measure the effects of higher order modes and interface stiffness. This test method is applicable to structures with distinct degree-of-freedom interfaces to other system components. A theoretical residual function in the displacement/force domain has the characteristics of a relatively flat line in the lower frequencies and a slight upward curvature in the higher frequency range. In the test residual function, the above-mentioned characteristics can be seen in the data, but due to the present limitations in the modal parameter evaluation (natural frequencies and mode shapes) of test data, the residual function has regions of ragged data. A second order polynomial curve fit is required to obtain the residual flexibility term. A weighting function of the data is generated by examining the variances between neighboring data points. From a weighted second-order polynomial curve fit, an accurate residual flexibility value can be obtained. The residual flexibility value and free-free modes from testing are used to improve a mathematical model of the structure. The residual flexibility modal test method is applied to a straight beam with a trunnion appendage and a space shuttle payload pallet simulator.
Boslough, M.
2011-12-01
Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based
Canonical generators of the cohomology of moduli of parabolic bundles on curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Biswas, I.; Raghavendra, N.
1994-11-01
We determine generators of the rational cohomology algebras of moduli spaces of parabolic vector bundles on a curve, under some 'primality' conditions on the parabolic datum. These generators are canonical in a precise sense. Our results are new even for usual vector bundles (i.e., vector bundles without parabolic structure) whose rank is greater than 2 and is coprime to the degree; in this case, they are generalizations of a theorem of Newstead on the moduli of vector bundles of rank 2 and odd degree. (author). 11 refs
A formalism to generate probability distributions for performance-assessment modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaplan, P.G.
1990-01-01
A formalism is presented for generating probability distributions of parameters used in performance-assessment modeling. The formalism is used when data are either sparse or nonexistent. The appropriate distribution is a function of the known or estimated constraints and is chosen to maximize a quantity known as Shannon's informational entropy. The formalism is applied to a parameter used in performance-assessment modeling. The functional form of the model that defines the parameter, data from the actual field site, and natural analog data are analyzed to estimate the constraints. A beta probability distribution of the example parameter is generated after finding four constraints. As an example of how the formalism is applied to the site characterization studies of Yucca Mountain, the distribution is generated for an input parameter in a performance-assessment model currently used to estimate compliance with disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories, 10 CFR 60.113(a)(2), commonly known as the ground water travel time criterion. 8 refs., 2 figs
Concise method for evaluating the probability distribution of the marginal cost of power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, S.H.; Li, Y.Z.
2000-01-01
In the developing electricity market, many questions on electricity pricing and the risk modelling of forward contracts require the evaluation of the expected value and probability distribution of the short-run marginal cost of power generation at any given time. A concise forecasting method is provided, which is consistent with the definitions of marginal costs and the techniques of probabilistic production costing. The method embodies clear physical concepts, so that it can be easily understood theoretically and computationally realised. A numerical example has been used to test the proposed method. (author)
Arbulú, Italo; Lozano, Javier; Rey-Maquieira, Javier
2015-12-01
The relationship between tourism growth and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has been, until now, the subject of little research. This is puzzling since the tourism sector is an important MSW generator and, at the same time, is willing to avoid negative impacts from MSW mismanagement. This paper aims to provide tools for tourism and MSW management by assessing the effects of tourism volume, tourism quality and tourism specialization on MSW generation in the UE. This is done using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. The study considers a panel data for 32 European economies in the 1997-2010 periods. Empirical results support the EKC hypothesis for MSW and shows that northern countries tend to have lower income elasticity than less developed countries; furthermore, results confirm a non-linear and significant effect of tourism arrivals, expenditure per tourist and tourism specialization on MSW generation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Practical Constraint K-Segment Principal Curve Algorithms for Generating Railway GPS Digital Map
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dewang Chen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In order to obtain a decent trade-off between the low-cost, low-accuracy Global Positioning System (GPS receivers and the requirements of high-precision digital maps for modern railways, using the concept of constraint K-segment principal curves (CKPCS and the expert knowledge on railways, we propose three practical CKPCS generation algorithms with reduced computational complexity, and thereafter more suitable for engineering applications. The three algorithms are named ALLopt, MPMopt, and DCopt, in which ALLopt exploits global optimization and MPMopt and DCopt apply local optimization with different initial solutions. We compare the three practical algorithms according to their performance on average projection error, stability, and the fitness for simple and complex simulated trajectories with noise data. It is found that ALLopt only works well for simple curves and small data sets. The other two algorithms can work better for complex curves and large data sets. Moreover, MPMopt runs faster than DCopt, but DCopt can work better for some curves with cross points. The three algorithms are also applied in generating GPS digital maps for two railway GPS data sets measured in Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR. Similar results like the ones in synthetic data are obtained. Because the trajectory of a railway is relatively simple and straight, we conclude that MPMopt works best according to the comprehensive considerations on the speed of computation and the quality of generated CKPCS. MPMopt can be used to obtain some key points to represent a large amount of GPS data. Hence, it can greatly reduce the data storage requirements and increase the positioning speed for real-time digital map applications.
A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan [KHNP CRI, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
2014-10-15
The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO{sub 2} emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.
Probability of a steam generator tube rupture due to the presence of axial through wall cracks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mavko, B.; Cizelj, L.
1991-01-01
Using the Leak-Before-Break (LBB) approach to define tube plugging criteria a possibility to operate with through wall crack(s) in steam generator tubes may be considered. This fact may imply an increase in tube rupture probability. Improved examination techniques (in addition to the 100% tube examination) have been developed and introduced to counterbalance the associated risk. However no estimates of the amount of total increase or decrease of risk due to the introduction of LBB have been made. A scheme to predict this change of risk is proposed in the paper, based on probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of axial cracks combined with available data of steam generator tube nondestructive examination reliability. (author)
A Probability Analysis of the Generating Cost for EU-APR1400 Single Unit
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ha, Gak Hyeon; Kim, Sung Hwan
2014-01-01
The nuclear power plant market is expected to grow rapidly in order to address issues of global warming, reducing CO 2 emissions and securing stable electricity supplies. Under these circumstances, the main primary goal of the EU-APR100 development is to ensure export competitiveness in the European countries. To this end, EU-APR1400 have been developed based one te APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor, GEN Type) The EU-APR1400 adds many advanced design features to its predecessor, as outlined below in Table 1. In this simulation, the results of the generating cost of the EU-APR1400 single unit were determined using the probability cost analysis technique, the generating cost range was shown to be 56.16 ∼ 70.92 won/kWh.
A neural network driving curve generation method for the heavy-haul train
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Youneng Huang
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The heavy-haul train has a series of characteristics, such as the locomotive traction properties, the longer length of train, and the nonlinear train pipe pressure during train braking. When the train is running on a continuous long and steep downgrade railway line, the safety of the train is ensured by cycle braking, which puts high demands on the driving skills of the driver. In this article, a driving curve generation method for the heavy-haul train based on a neural network is proposed. First, in order to describe the nonlinear characteristics of train braking, the neural network model is constructed and trained by practical driving data. In the neural network model, various nonlinear neurons are interconnected to work for information processing and transmission. The target value of train braking pressure reduction and release time is achieved by modeling the braking process. The equation of train motion is computed to obtain the driving curve. Finally, in four typical operation scenarios, comparing the curve data generated by the method with corresponding practical data of the Shuohuang heavy-haul railway line, the results show that the method is effective.
Statistical inference of the generation probability of T-cell receptors from sequence repertoires.
Murugan, Anand; Mora, Thierry; Walczak, Aleksandra M; Callan, Curtis G
2012-10-02
Stochastic rearrangement of germline V-, D-, and J-genes to create variable coding sequence for certain cell surface receptors is at the origin of immune system diversity. This process, known as "VDJ recombination", is implemented via a series of stochastic molecular events involving gene choices and random nucleotide insertions between, and deletions from, genes. We use large sequence repertoires of the variable CDR3 region of human CD4+ T-cell receptor beta chains to infer the statistical properties of these basic biochemical events. Because any given CDR3 sequence can be produced in multiple ways, the probability distribution of hidden recombination events cannot be inferred directly from the observed sequences; we therefore develop a maximum likelihood inference method to achieve this end. To separate the properties of the molecular rearrangement mechanism from the effects of selection, we focus on nonproductive CDR3 sequences in T-cell DNA. We infer the joint distribution of the various generative events that occur when a new T-cell receptor gene is created. We find a rich picture of correlation (and absence thereof), providing insight into the molecular mechanisms involved. The generative event statistics are consistent between individuals, suggesting a universal biochemical process. Our probabilistic model predicts the generation probability of any specific CDR3 sequence by the primitive recombination process, allowing us to quantify the potential diversity of the T-cell repertoire and to understand why some sequences are shared between individuals. We argue that the use of formal statistical inference methods, of the kind presented in this paper, will be essential for quantitative understanding of the generation and evolution of diversity in the adaptive immune system.
Xing, Wei; Shi, Deheng; Zhang, Jicai; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue
2018-05-01
This paper calculates the potential energy curves of 21 Λ-S and 42 Ω states, which arise from the first two dissociation asymptotes of the CO+ cation. The calculations are conducted using the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. To improve the reliability and accuracy of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are taken into account. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is evaluated. To better study the transition probabilities, the transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of some emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for a number of vibrational levels of several states. The transitions between different Λ-S states are evaluated. Spectroscopic routines for observing these states are proposed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment, especially for the states that were very difficult to observe or were not detected in previous experiments.
Spline Trajectory Algorithm Development: Bezier Curve Control Point Generation for UAVs
Howell, Lauren R.; Allen, B. Danette
2016-01-01
A greater need for sophisticated autonomous piloting systems has risen in direct correlation with the ubiquity of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology. Whether surveying unknown or unexplored areas of the world, collecting scientific data from regions in which humans are typically incapable of entering, locating lost or wanted persons, or delivering emergency supplies, an unmanned vehicle moving in close proximity to people and other vehicles, should fly smoothly and predictably. The mathematical application of spline interpolation can play an important role in autopilots' on-board trajectory planning. Spline interpolation allows for the connection of Three-Dimensional Euclidean Space coordinates through a continuous set of smooth curves. This paper explores the motivation, application, and methodology used to compute the spline control points, which shape the curves in such a way that the autopilot trajectory is able to meet vehicle-dynamics limitations. The spline algorithms developed used to generate these curves supply autopilots with the information necessary to compute vehicle paths through a set of coordinate waypoints.
Radioactivity release vs probability for a steam generator tube rupture accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.J.; Hall, R.E.
1978-01-01
A calculation of the probability of obtaining various radioactivity releases from a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is presented. The only radioactive isotopes considered are Iodine-131 and Xe-133. The particular accident path considered consists of a double-ended guillotine SGTR followed by loss of offsite power (LOSP). If there is no loss of offsite power, and no system fault other than the SGTR, it is judged that the consequences will be minimal, since the amount of iodine released through the condenser air ejector is expected to be quite small; this is a consequence of the fact that the concentration of iodine in the vapor released from the condenser air ejector is very small compared to that dissolved in the condensate water. In addition, in some plants the condenser air ejector flow is automatically diverted to containment or a high-activity alarm. The analysis presented here is for a typical Westinghouse PWR such as described in RESAR-3S
Statistics about elliptic curves over finite prime fields
Gekeler, Ernst-Ulrich
2006-01-01
We derive formulas for the probabilities of various properties (cyclicity, squarefreeness, generation by random points) of the point groups of randomly chosen elliptic curves over random prime fields.
Wind Turbine Power Curve Design for Optimal Power Generation in Wind Farms Considering Wake Effect
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Tian
2017-03-01
Full Text Available In modern wind farms, maximum power point tracking (MPPT is widely implemented. Using the MPPT method, each individual wind turbine is controlled by its pitch angle and tip speed ratio to generate the maximum active power. In a wind farm, the upstream wind turbine may cause power loss to its downstream wind turbines due to the wake effect. According to the wake model, downstream power loss is also determined by the pitch angle and tip speed ratio of the upstream wind turbine. By optimizing the pitch angle and tip speed ratio of each wind turbine, the total active power of the wind farm can be increased. In this paper, the optimal pitch angle and tip speed ratio are selected for each wind turbine by the exhausted search. Considering the estimation error of the wake model, a solution to implement the optimized pitch angle and tip speed ratio is proposed, which is to generate the optimal control curves for each individual wind turbine off-line. In typical wind farms with regular layout, based on the detailed analysis of the influence of pitch angle and tip speed ratio on the total active power of the wind farm by the exhausted search, the optimization is simplified with the reduced computation complexity. By using the optimized control curves, the annual energy production (AEP is increased by 1.03% compared to using the MPPT method in a case-study of a typical eighty-turbine wind farm.
Sato, Sakura; Ogura, Kiyotake; Takahashi, Kyohei; Sato, Yasunori; Yanagida, Noriyuki; Ebisawa, Motohiro
2017-04-01
Specific IgE (sIgE) antibody detection using the Siemens IMMULITE ® 3gAllergy™ (3gAllergy) assay have not been sufficiently examined for the diagnosis of food allergy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of measuring sIgE levels using the 3gAllergy assay to diagnose allergic reactions to egg, milk, and wheat. This retrospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosed or suspected allergies to egg, milk and wheat. Patients were divided into two groups according to their clinical reactivity to these allergens based on oral food challenge outcomes and/or convincing histories of immediate reaction to causative food(s). The sIgE levels were measured using 3gAllergy and ImmunoCAP. Predicted probability curves were estimated using logistic regression analysis. We analyzed 1561 patients, ages 0-19 y (egg = 436, milk = 499, wheat = 626). The sIgE levels determined using 3gAllergy correlated with those of ImmunoCAP, classifying 355 patients as symptomatic: egg = 149, milk = 123, wheat = 83. 3gAllergy sIgE levels were significantly higher in symptomatic than in asymptomatic patients (P allergies. However, these probability curves should not be applied interchangeably between different assays. Copyright © 2016 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Design Curve Generation for 3D SiC Fiber Architecture
Lang, Jerry; Dicarlo, James A.
2014-01-01
The design tool provides design curves that allow a simple and quick way to examine multiple factors that can influence the processing and key properties of the preforms and their final SiC-reinforced ceramic composites without over obligating financial capital for the fabricating of materials. Tool predictions for process and fiber fraction properties have been validated for a HNS 3D preform.The virtualization aspect of the tool will be used to provide a quick generation of solid models with actual fiber paths for finite element evaluation to predict mechanical and thermal properties of proposed composites as well as mechanical displacement behavior due to creep and stress relaxation to study load sharing characteristic between constitutes for better performance.Tool predictions for the fiber controlled properties of the SiCSiC CMC fabricated from the HNS preforms will be valuated and up-graded from the measurements on these CMC
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khvedelidze Arsen
2018-01-01
Full Text Available The generation of random mixed states is discussed, aiming for the computation of probabilistic characteristics of composite finite dimensional quantum systems. In particular, we consider the generation of random Hilbert-Schmidt and Bures ensembles of qubit and qutrit pairs and compute the corresponding probabilities to find a separable state among the states of a fixed rank.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barros, Thaisa C. de; Castrillo, Lazara S.; Xavier, Aline G.; Goncalves, Gabriela de L.; Melo, Julio Angelo, E-mail: barros.camara@gmail.com, E-mail: lazaracastrillo@hotmail.com, E-mail: alinegxavier@gmail.com, E-mail: gabilimag_@hotmail.com, E-mail: angelo_mecanic@hotmail.com [Escola Politecnica de Pernambuco (UPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Mecanica Industrial
2017-11-01
To meet the demand for electric consumption, it is fundamental to prepare an efficient energy planning that guarantees the safe supply of energy, so that the price of kilowatt-hours for the consumer respects the tariff modality and the socio-environmental impact is the smallest possible. In recent years, alternative sources of energy have been gaining considerable space in the Brazilian generating park. Among the many options for energy supply, choosing the most feasible involves the use of techniques that compare all the costs involved in generating electricity from the sources available in the Brazilian energy matrix. The objective of the work is to show a quick, practical and objective tool that performs this comparison and assists in decision making. The method based on the comparison is the Cost of Energy and the tool for the application of the same are the Screening curves, widely used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In this analysis, the following parameters are considered: operating capacity, toxic gas emission rate, fuel consumption and values, fixed and variable costs of operation and maintenance, investment values for each source, construction time and useful life. It is worth noting that the method does not consider in calculations aspects such as inflation, forced interruptions of the plant and other more specific factors. With the work, it was possible to perform an examination of the costs of the generation technologies available in Brazil and, through the obtained data, the economic viability of the generating parks was discussed through simulations in different scenarios, comparing the sources among themselves. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barros, Thaisa C. de; Castrillo, Lazara S.; Xavier, Aline G.; Goncalves, Gabriela de L.; Melo, Julio Angelo
2017-01-01
To meet the demand for electric consumption, it is fundamental to prepare an efficient energy planning that guarantees the safe supply of energy, so that the price of kilowatt-hours for the consumer respects the tariff modality and the socio-environmental impact is the smallest possible. In recent years, alternative sources of energy have been gaining considerable space in the Brazilian generating park. Among the many options for energy supply, choosing the most feasible involves the use of techniques that compare all the costs involved in generating electricity from the sources available in the Brazilian energy matrix. The objective of the work is to show a quick, practical and objective tool that performs this comparison and assists in decision making. The method based on the comparison is the Cost of Energy and the tool for the application of the same are the Screening curves, widely used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In this analysis, the following parameters are considered: operating capacity, toxic gas emission rate, fuel consumption and values, fixed and variable costs of operation and maintenance, investment values for each source, construction time and useful life. It is worth noting that the method does not consider in calculations aspects such as inflation, forced interruptions of the plant and other more specific factors. With the work, it was possible to perform an examination of the costs of the generation technologies available in Brazil and, through the obtained data, the economic viability of the generating parks was discussed through simulations in different scenarios, comparing the sources among themselves. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ramos, Alessandro Candido Lopes [CELG - Companhia Energetica de Goias, Goiania, GO (Brazil). Generation and Transmission. System' s Operation Center], E-mail: alessandro.clr@celg.com.br; Batista, Adalberto Jose [Universidade Federal de Goias (UFG), Goiania, GO (Brazil)], E-mail: batista@eee.ufg.br; Leborgne, Roberto Chouhy [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)], E-mail: rcl@ece.ufrgs.br; Emiliano, Pedro Henrique Mota, E-mail: ph@phph.com.br
2009-07-01
This article presents the impact of distributed generation in studies of voltage sags caused by faults in the electrical system. We simulated short-circuit-to-ground in 62 lines of 230, 138, 69 and 13.8 kV that are part of the electrical system of the city of Goiania, of Goias state . For each fault position was monitored the bus voltage of 380 V in an industrial consumer sensitive to such sags. Were inserted different levels of GD near the consumer. The simulations of a short circuit, with the monitoring bar 380 V, were performed again. A study using stochastic simulation Monte Carlo (SMC) was performed to obtain, at each level of GD, the probability curves and sags of the probability density and its voltage class. With these curves were obtained the average number of sags according to each class, that the consumer bar may be submitted annually. The simulations were performed using the Program Analysis of Simultaneous Faults - ANAFAS. In order to overcome the intrinsic limitations of the methods of simulation of this program and allow data entry via windows, a computational tool was developed in Java language. Data processing was done using the MATLAB software.
Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean
Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.
1989-01-01
The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jakub Jurasz
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Polish energy sector is (almost from its origin dominated by fossil fuel feed power. This situation results from an abundance of relatively cheap coal (hard and lignite. Brown coal due to its nature is the cheapest energy source in Poland. However, hard coal which fuels 60% of polish power plants is picking up on prices and is susceptible to the coal imported from neighboring countries. Forced by the European Union (EU regulations, Poland is struggling at achieving its goal of reaching 15% of energy consumption from renewable energy sources (RES by 2020. Over the year 2015, RES covered 11.3% of gross energy consumption but this generation was dominated by solid biomass (over 80%. The aim of this paper was to answer the following research questions: What is the relation of irradiation values to the power load on a yearly and daily basis? and how should photovoltaics (PV be integrated in the polish power system? Conducted analysis allowed us to state that there exists a negative correlation between power demand and irradiation values on a yearly basis, but this is likely to change in the future. Secondly, on average, daily values of irradiation tend to follow power load curve over the first hours of the day.
Input-profile-based software failure probability quantification for safety signal generation systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Hyun Gook; Lim, Ho Gon; Lee, Ho Jung; Kim, Man Cheol; Jang, Seung Cheol
2009-01-01
The approaches for software failure probability estimation are mainly based on the results of testing. Test cases represent the inputs, which are encountered in an actual use. The test inputs for the safety-critical application such as a reactor protection system (RPS) of a nuclear power plant are the inputs which cause the activation of protective action such as a reactor trip. A digital system treats inputs from instrumentation sensors as discrete digital values by using an analog-to-digital converter. Input profile must be determined in consideration of these characteristics for effective software failure probability quantification. Another important characteristic of software testing is that we do not have to repeat the test for the same input value since the software response is deterministic for each specific digital input. With these considerations, we propose an effective software testing method for quantifying the failure probability. As an example application, the input profile of the digital RPS is developed based on the typical plant data. The proposed method in this study is expected to provide a simple but realistic mean to quantify the software failure probability based on input profile and system dynamics.
Making Heads or Tails of Probability: An Experiment with Random Generators
Morsanyi, Kinga; Handley, Simon J.; Serpell, Sylvie
2013-01-01
Background: The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as "equiprobable" by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based…
ArcCN-Runoff: An ArcGIS tool for generating curve number and runoff maps
Zhan, X.; Huang, M.-L.
2004-01-01
The development and the application of ArcCN-Runoff tool, an extension of ESRI@ ArcGIS software, are reported. This tool can be applied to determine curve numbers and to calculate runoff or infiltration for a rainfall event in a watershed. Implementation of GIS techniques such as dissolving, intersecting, and a curve-number reference table improve efficiency. Technical processing time may be reduced from days, if not weeks, to hours for producing spatially varied curve number and runoff maps. An application example for a watershed in Lyon County and Osage County, Kansas, USA, is presented. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X
2016-01-01
method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method...... of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.......This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calabrese, C.R.; Grant, C.R.
1990-01-01
This work presents comparisons between measured fluxes obtained by activation of Manganese foils in the light water, enriched uranium research pool reactor RA-2 MTR (Materials Testing Reactors) fuel element) and fluxes calculated by the finite element method FEM using DELFIN code, and describes the heterogeneus finite elements by a set of solutions of the transport equations for several different configurations obtained using the collision probability code HUEMUL. The agreement between calculated and measured fluxes is good, and the advantage of using FEM is showed because to obtain the flux distribution with same detail using an usual diffusion calculation it would be necessary 12000 mesh points against the 2000 points that FEM uses, hence the processing time is reduced in a factor ten. An interesting alternative to use in MTR fuel management is presented. (Author) [es
PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS AND QUASAR PROBABILITIES FROM A SINGLE, DATA-DRIVEN GENERATIVE MODEL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.; Weaver, Benjamin A.; Myers, Adam D.; Hennawi, Joseph F.; McMahon, Richard G.; Schiminovich, David; Sheldon, Erin S.; Brinkmann, Jon; Schneider, Donald P.
2012-01-01
We describe a technique for simultaneously classifying and estimating the redshift of quasars. It can separate quasars from stars in arbitrary redshift ranges, estimate full posterior distribution functions for the redshift, and naturally incorporate flux uncertainties, missing data, and multi-wavelength photometry. We build models of quasars in flux-redshift space by applying the extreme deconvolution technique to estimate the underlying density. By integrating this density over redshift, one can obtain quasar flux densities in different redshift ranges. This approach allows for efficient, consistent, and fast classification and photometric redshift estimation. This is achieved by combining the speed obtained by choosing simple analytical forms as the basis of our density model with the flexibility of non-parametric models through the use of many simple components with many parameters. We show that this technique is competitive with the best photometric quasar classification techniques—which are limited to fixed, broad redshift ranges and high signal-to-noise ratio data—and with the best photometric redshift techniques when applied to broadband optical data. We demonstrate that the inclusion of UV and NIR data significantly improves photometric quasar-star separation and essentially resolves all of the redshift degeneracies for quasars inherent to the ugriz filter system, even when included data have a low signal-to-noise ratio. For quasars spectroscopically confirmed by the SDSS 84% and 97% of the objects with Galaxy Evolution Explorer UV and UKIDSS NIR data have photometric redshifts within 0.1 and 0.3, respectively, of the spectroscopic redshift; this amounts to about a factor of three improvement over ugriz-only photometric redshifts. Our code to calculate quasar probabilities and redshift probability distributions is publicly available.
Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bolinger, Mark [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
2017-08-01
Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.
Proposed Spontaneous Generation of Magnetic Fields by Curved Layers of a Chiral Superconductor
Kvorning, T.; Hansson, T. H.; Quelle, A.; Smith, C. Morais
2018-05-01
We demonstrate that two-dimensional chiral superconductors on curved surfaces spontaneously develop magnetic flux. This geometric Meissner effect provides an unequivocal signature of chiral superconductivity, which could be observed in layered materials under stress. We also employ the effect to explain some puzzling questions related to the location of zero-energy Majorana modes.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quan Luna, B.; Blahůt, Jan; van Westen, C.J.; Sterlacchini, S.; van Asch, T.W.J.; Akbas, S.O.
2011-01-01
Roč. 11, č. 7 (2011), s. 2047-2060 ISSN 1561-8633 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30460519 Keywords : debris flow modelling * hazard * vulnerability curves Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.983, year: 2011 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/2047/2011/
Feasible Path Generation Using Bezier Curves for Car-Like Vehicle
Latip, Nor Badariyah Abdul; Omar, Rosli
2017-08-01
When planning a collision-free path for an autonomous vehicle, the main criteria that have to be considered are the shortest distance, lower computation time and completeness, i.e. a path can be found if one exists. Besides that, a feasible path for the autonomous vehicle is also crucial to guarantee that the vehicle can reach the target destination considering its kinematic constraints such as non-holonomic and minimum turning radius. In order to address these constraints, Bezier curves is applied. In this paper, Bezier curves are modeled and simulated using Matlab software and the feasibility of the resulting path is analyzed. Bezier curve is derived from a piece-wise linear pre-planned path. It is found that the Bezier curves has the capability of making the planned path feasible and could be embedded in a path planning algorithm for an autonomous vehicle with kinematic constraints. It is concluded that the length of segments of the pre-planned path have to be greater than a nominal value, derived from the vehicle wheelbase, maximum steering angle and maximum speed to ensure the path for the autonomous car is feasible.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon
2015-01-01
South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment
On Generating Optimal Signal Probabilities for Random Tests: A Genetic Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Srinivas
1996-01-01
Full Text Available Genetic Algorithms are robust search and optimization techniques. A Genetic Algorithm based approach for determining the optimal input distributions for generating random test vectors is proposed in the paper. A cost function based on the COP testability measure for determining the efficacy of the input distributions is discussed. A brief overview of Genetic Algorithms (GAs and the specific details of our implementation are described. Experimental results based on ISCAS-85 benchmark circuits are presented. The performance of our GAbased approach is compared with previous results. While the GA generates more efficient input distributions than the previous methods which are based on gradient descent search, the overheads of the GA in computing the input distributions are larger.
Computer-aided design of curved surfaces with automatic model generation
Staley, S. M.; Jerard, R. B.; White, P. R.
1980-01-01
The design and visualization of three-dimensional objects with curved surfaces have always been difficult. The paper given below describes a computer system which facilitates both the design and visualization of such surfaces. The system enhances the design of these surfaces by virtue of various interactive techniques coupled with the application of B-Spline theory. Visualization is facilitated by including a specially built model-making machine which produces three-dimensional foam models. Thus, the system permits the designer to produce an inexpensive model of the object which is suitable for evaluation and presentation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Burgazzi, Luciano
2011-01-01
PSA analysis should be based on the best available data for the types of equipment and systems in the plant. In some cases very limited data may be available for evolutionary designs or new equipments, especially in the case of passive systems. It has been recognized that difficulties arise in addressing the uncertainties related to the physical phenomena and characterizing the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation, since the unavailability of a consistent operational and experimental data base. This lack of experimental evidence and validated data forces the analyst to resort to expert/engineering judgment to a large extent, thus making the results strongly dependent upon the expert elicitation process. This prompts the need for the development of a framework for constructing a database to generate probability distributions for the parameters influencing the system behaviour. The objective of the task is to develop a consistent framework aimed at creating probability distributions for the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation. In order to achieve this goal considerable experience and engineering judgement are also required to determine which existing data are most applicable to the new systems or which generic data bases or models provide the best information for the system design. Eventually in case of absence of documented specific reliability data, documented expert judgement coming out from a well structured procedure could be used to envisage sound probability distributions for the parameters under interest
Buha Danilo; Buha Boško; Jačić Dušan; Gligorov Saša; Božilov Marko; Marinković Savo; Milosavljević Srđan
2016-01-01
The relay protection settings performed in the largest thermal powerplant (TE "Nikola Tesla B") are reffered and explained in this paper. The first calculation step is related to the coordination of the maximum stator current limiter settings, the overcurrent protection with inverse characteristics settings and the permitted overload of the generator stator B1. In the second calculation step the settings of impedance generator protection are determined, and the methods and criteria according ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Buha Danilo
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The relay protection settings performed in the largest thermal powerplant (TE "Nikola Tesla B" are reffered and explained in this paper. The first calculation step is related to the coordination of the maximum stator current limiter settings, the overcurrent protection with inverse characteristics settings and the permitted overload of the generator stator B1. In the second calculation step the settings of impedance generator protection are determined, and the methods and criteria according to which the calculations are done are described. Criteria used to provide the protection to fulfill the backup protection role in the event of malfunction of the main protection of the transmission system. are clarified. The calculation of all protection functions (32 functions of generator B1 were performed in the project "Coordination of relay protection blocks B1 and B2 with the system of excitation and power system protections -TENT B".
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoff, Gabriela; Fischer, Andreia Caroline Fischer da Silveira; Accurso, Andre; Andrade, Jose Rodrigo Mendes; Bacelar, Alexandre
2011-01-01
This paper intended to measure iso expositions curves in areas of mobile equipment use. It was selected: a Shimadzu mobile equipment and two Siemens equipment, being used a non-anthropomorphic scatterer. The exposure measurements in mesh of 4.20 x 4.20 cubic centimeters, at a half-height of the simulator and steps of 30 cm, were used by using the radiographic techniques: 100 k Vp and 63 m As (Shimadzu) and 96 k Vp and 40 m As (Siemens). For estimation of environmental equivalent dose, during 12 months, were considered: 3.55 m As/examination and 44.5 procedures/month (adults): and 3.16 m As/examination and 20.1 procedures/month (pediatrics). It was observed that only the values in the distance of 60 cm presented over the maximum limit of environment equivalent dose defined for Free Area (0.5 mSv/year). The points collected at 2.1 m from the primary beam center, have shown to be always 12% of referred limit, shown to be a safe distance for the hospitalized patients
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chung-Ho Su
2010-12-01
Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hosoma, Takashi
2017-01-01
In the previous research (JAEA-Research 2015-009), essentials of neutron multiplicity counting mathematics were reconsidered where experiences obtained at the Plutonium Conversion Development Facility were taken into, and formulae of multiplicity distribution were algebraically derived up to septuplet using a probability generating function to make a strategic move in the future. Its principle was reported by K. Böhnel in 1985, but such a high-order expansion was the first case due to its increasing complexity. In this research, characteristics of the high-order correlation were investigated. It was found that higher-order correlation increases rapidly in response to the increase of leakage multiplication, crosses and leaves lower-order correlations behind, when leakage multiplication is > 1.3 that depends on detector efficiency and counter setting. In addition, fission rates and doubles count rates by fast neutron and by thermal neutron in their coexisting system were algebraically derived using a probability generating function again. Its principle was reported by I. Pázsit and L. Pál in 2012, but such a physical interpretation, i.e. associating their stochastic variables with fission rate, doubles count rate and leakage multiplication, is the first case. From Rossi-alpha combined distribution and measured ratio of each area obtained by Differential Die-Away Self-Interrogation (DDSI) and conventional assay data, it is possible to estimate: the number of induced fissions per unit time by fast neutron and by thermal neutron; the number of induced fissions (< 1) by one source neutron; and individual doubles count rates. During the research, a hypothesis introduced in their report was proved to be true. Provisional calculations were done for UO_2 of 1∼10 kgU containing ∼ 0.009 wt% "2"4"4Cm. (author)
Javitt, D C; Grochowski, S; Shelley, A M; Ritter, W
1998-03-01
Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder associated with disturbances in perception and cognition. Event-related potentials (ERP) provide a mechanism for evaluating potential mechanisms underlying neurophysiological dysfunction in schizophrenia. Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a short-duration auditory cognitive ERP component that indexes operation of the auditory sensory ('echoic') memory system. Prior studies have demonstrated impaired MMN generation in schizophrenia along with deficits in auditory sensory memory performance. MMN is elicited in an auditory oddball paradigm in which a sequence of repetitive standard tones is interrupted infrequently by a physically deviant ('oddball') stimulus. The present study evaluates MMN generation as a function of deviant stimulus probability, interstimulus interval, interdeviant interval and the degree of pitch separation between the standard and deviant stimuli. The major findings of the present study are first, that MMN amplitude is decreased in schizophrenia across a broad range of stimulus conditions, and second, that the degree of deficit in schizophrenia is largest under conditions when MMN is normally largest. The pattern of deficit observed in schizophrenia differs from the pattern observed in other conditions associated with MMN dysfunction, including Alzheimer's disease, stroke, and alcohol intoxication.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robson Marcelo Rossi
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Neste trabalho foram avaliados os componentes de covariância e as herdabilidades dos parâmetros da curva de produção de ovos em codornas em um modelo de duplo estágio: o primeiro estágio composto pelo ajustamento de uma curva não-linear e o segundo, pela avaliação dos parâmetros genéticos obtidos por meio do modelo animal. Foram utilizados registros individuais diários de postura até 90 dias, a contar do primeiro ovo no lote, de 308, 374 e 378 aves de três linhagens. Dentro de cada linhagem, não houve diferenças entre os componentes de covariância nem herdabilidades para as rações contendo diferentes níveis de energia (2.900 ou 2.500 kcal/kg de EM, indicando que não houve heterogeneidade de variância. Entretanto, os valores de correlações genéticas foram na ordem de 0,53 a 0,65 para o parâmetro α e de 0,28 a 0,30 para β, indicando haver interação genótipo × ambiente. As estimativas de herdabilidade, respectivamente, nas três linhagens, para os parâmetros α e β na dieta de alta energia foram 0,21 e 0,50; 0,12 e 0,49; e 0,12 e 0,48, e na dieta de baixa energia, 0,23 e 0,50; 0,13 e 0,50; e 0,10 e 0,47. As estimativas dos componentes de covariância e herdabilidades foram diferentes entre as linhagens, para os dois parâmetros da curva. Uma linhagem apresentou maior herdabilidade para o parâmetro α, o que indica maior potencial para mudanças por seleção para a produção na fase inicial de postura. Considerando o parâmetro β, as três linhagens apresentam o mesmo potencial.It was evaluated in this work the components of (covariance and heritability of the parameters of egg production curve in quails in a model of double stages: the first stage is composed of the adjustment of a nonlinear curve, and the second is composed of the assessing of the genetic parameters obtained by the animal model. It was used daily individual records from laying to 90 days, starting with the first egg in the batch, of 308, 374
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Allison Muller
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The ongoing extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE pandemic has led to an increasing carbapenem use, requiring release of guidelines for carbapenem usage in France in late 2010. We sought to determine factors associated with changes in carbapenem use in intensive care units (ICUs, medical and surgical wards between 2009 and 2013. Methods This ward-level multicentre retrospective study was based on data from French antibiotic and multidrug-resistant bacteria surveillance networks in healthcare facilities. Antibiotic use was expressed in defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days. Factors associated with the reduction in carbapenem use (yes/no over the study period were determined from random-effects logistic regression model (493 wards nested within 259 healthcare facilities: ward characteristics (type, size…, ward antibiotic use (initial antibiotic use [i.e., consumption of a given antibiotic in 2009], initial antibiotic prescribing profile [i.e., proportion of a given antibiotic in the overall antibiotic consumption in 2009] and reduction in the use of a given antibiotic between 2009 and 2013 and regional ESBL-PE incidence rate in acute care settings in 2011. Results Over the study period, carbapenem consumption in ICUs (n = 85, medical (n = 227 and surgical wards (n = 181 was equal to 73.4, 6.2 and 5.4 defined daily doses per 1000 patient-days, respectively. Release of guidelines was followed by a significant decrease in carbapenem use within ICUs and medical wards, and a slowdown in use within surgical wards. The following factors were independently associated with a higher probability of reducing carbapenem use: location in Eastern France, higher initial carbapenem prescribing profile and reductions in consumption of fluoroquinolones, glycopeptides and piperacillin/tazobactam. In parallel, factors independently associated with a lower probability of reducing carbapenem use were
Hozo, Iztok; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin
2018-02-01
Decision curve analysis (DCA) is a widely used method for evaluating diagnostic tests and predictive models. It was developed based on expected utility theory (EUT) and has been reformulated using expected regret theory (ERG). Under certain circumstances, these 2 formulations yield different results. Here we describe these situations and explain the variation. We compare the derivations of the EUT- and ERG-based formulations of DCA for a typical medical decision problem: "treat none," "treat all," or "use model" to guide treatment. We illustrate the differences between the 2 formulations when applied to the following clinical question: at which probability of death we should refer a terminally ill patient to hospice? Both DCA formulations yielded identical but mirrored results when treatment effects are ignored; they generated significantly different results otherwise. Treatment effect has a significant effect on the results derived by EUT DCA and less so on ERG DCA. The elicitation of specific values for disutilities affected the results even more significantly in the context of EUT DCA, whereas no such elicitation was required within the ERG framework. EUT and ERG DCA generate different results when treatment effects are taken into account. The magnitude of the difference depends on the effect of treatment and the disutilities associated with disease and treatment effects. This is important to realize as the current practice guidelines are uniformly based on EUT; the same recommendations can significantly differ if they are derived based on ERG framework. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Liu, Song; Jin, Hua; Song, KeWei; Wang, LiangChen; Wu, Xiang; Wang, LiangBi
2017-10-01
The heat transfer performance of the tube bank fin heat exchanger is limited by the air-side thermal resistance. Thus, enhancing the air-side heat transfer is an effective method to improve the performance of the heat exchanger. A new fin pattern with flow redistributors and curved triangular vortex generators is experimentally studied in this paper. The effects of the flow redistributors located in front of the tube stagnation point and the curved vortex generators located around the tube on the characteristics of heat transfer and pressure drop are discussed in detail. A performance comparison is also carried out between the fins with and without flow redistributors. The experimental results show that the flow redistributors stamped out from the fin in front of the tube stagnation points can decrease the friction factor at the cost of decreasing the heat transfer performance. Whether the combination of the flow redistributors and the curved vortex generators will present a better heat transfer performance depends on the size of the curved vortex generators. As for the studied two sizes of vortex generators, the heat transfer performance is promoted by the flow redistributors for the fin with larger size of vortex generators and the performance is suppressed by the flow redistributors for the fin with smaller vortex generators.
Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.
2010-01-01
We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neij, Lena
2008-01-01
Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. Durán
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A versatile measurement system for systematic testing and measurement of the evolution of the I-V characteristic curves of photovoltaic panels or arrays (PV generators is proposed in this paper. The measurement system uses a circuit solution based on DC-DC converters that involves several advantages relative to traditional methods: simple structure, scalability, fast response, and low cost. The measurement of the desired characteristics of PV generators includes high speed of response and high fidelity. The prototype system built is governed by a microcontroller, and experimental results prove the proposed measurement system useful. A virtual instrument (VI was developed for full system control from a computer. The developed system enables monitoring the suitable operation of a PV generator in real time, since it allows comparing its actual curves with those provided by the manufacturer.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fynan, Douglas A.; Ahn, Kwang-Il, E-mail: kiahn@kaeri.re.kr
2016-12-15
Highlights: • Pressure drop-flow rate curves for superheated steam in U-tubes were generated. • Forward flow of hot steam is favored in the longer and taller U-tubes. • Reverse flow of cold steam is favored in short U-tubes. • Steam generator U-tube bundle geometry and tube diameter are important. • Need for correlation development for natural convention heat transfer coefficient. - Abstract: Characteristic pressure drop-flow rate curves are generated for all row numbers of the OPR1000 steam generators (SGs), representative of Combustion Engineering (CE) type SGs featuring square bend U-tubes. The pressure drop-flow rate curves are applicable to severe accident natural circulations of single-phase superheated steam during high pressure station blackout sequences with failed auxiliary feedwater and dry secondary side which are closely related to the thermally induced steam generator tube rupture event. The pressure drop-flow rate curves which determine the recirculation rate through the SG tubes are dependent on the tube bundle geometry and hydraulic diameter of the tubes. The larger CE type SGs have greater variation of tube length and height as a function of row number with forward flow of steam favored in the longer and taller high row number tubes and reverse flow favored in the short low row number tubes. Friction loss, natural convection heat transfer coefficients, and temperature differentials from the primary to secondary side are dominant parameters affecting the recirculation rate. The need for correlation development for natural convection heat transfer coefficients for external flow over tube bundles currently not modeled in system codes is discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bergant, Marcos A., E-mail: marcos.bergant@cab.cnea.gov.ar [Gerencia CAREM, Centro Atómico Bariloche (CNEA), Av. Bustillo 9500, San Carlos de Bariloche 8400 (Argentina); Yawny, Alejandro A., E-mail: yawny@cab.cnea.gov.ar [División Física de Metales, Centro Atómico Bariloche (CNEA) / CONICET, Av. Bustillo 9500, San Carlos de Bariloche 8400 (Argentina); Perez Ipiña, Juan E., E-mail: juan.perezipina@fain.uncoma.edu.ar [Grupo Mecánica de Fractura, Universidad Nacional del Comahue / CONICET, Buenos Aires 1400, Neuquén 8300 (Argentina)
2017-04-01
The structural integrity of steam generator tubes is a relevant issue concerning nuclear plant safety. In the present work, J-resistance curves of Inconel 690 and Incoloy 800 nuclear steam generator tubes with circumferential and longitudinal through wall cracks were obtained at room temperature and 300 °C using recently developed non-standard specimens' geometries. It was found that Incoloy 800 tubes exhibited higher J-resistance curves than Inconel 690 for both crack orientations. For both materials, circumferential cracks resulted into higher fracture resistance than longitudinal cracks, indicating a certain degree of texture anisotropy introduced by the tube fabrication process. From a practical point of view, temperature effects have found to be negligible in all cases. The results obtained in the present work provide a general framework for further application to structural integrity assessments of cracked tubes in a variety of nuclear steam generator designs. - Highlights: •Non-standard fracture specimens were obtained from nuclear steam generator tubes. •Specimens with circumferential and longitudinal through-wall cracks were used. •Inconel 690 and Incoloy 800 steam generator tubes were tested at 24 and 300 °C. •Fracture toughness for circumferential cracks was higher than for longitudinal cracks. •Incoloy 800 showed higher fracture toughness than Inconel 690 steam generator tubes.
Simulating Supernova Light Curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Even, Wesley Paul; Dolence, Joshua C.
2016-01-01
This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth's atmosphere.
Simulating Supernova Light Curves
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Even, Wesley Paul [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dolence, Joshua C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-05-05
This report discusses supernova light simulations. A brief review of supernovae, basics of supernova light curves, simulation tools used at LANL, and supernova results are included. Further, it happens that many of the same methods used to generate simulated supernova light curves can also be used to model the emission from fireballs generated by explosions in the earth’s atmosphere.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Schäffer Alejandro A
2008-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Fluorescence of dyes bound to double-stranded PCR products has been utilized extensively in various real-time quantitative PCR applications, including post-amplification dissociation curve analysis, or differentiation of amplicon length or sequence composition. Despite the current era of whole-genome sequencing, mapping tools such as radiation hybrid DNA panels remain useful aids for sequence assembly, focused resequencing efforts, and for building physical maps of species that have not yet been sequenced. For placement of specific, individual genes or markers on a map, low-throughput methods remain commonplace. Typically, PCR amplification of DNA from each panel cell line is followed by gel electrophoresis and scoring of each clone for the presence or absence of PCR product. To improve sensitivity and efficiency of radiation hybrid panel analysis in comparison to gel-based methods, we adapted fluorescence-based real-time PCR and dissociation curve analysis for use as a novel scoring method. Results As proof of principle for this dissociation curve method, we generated new maps of river buffalo (Bubalus bubalis chromosome 20 by both dissociation curve analysis and conventional marker scoring. We also obtained sequence data to augment dissociation curve results. Few genes have been previously mapped to buffalo chromosome 20, and sequence detail is limited, so 65 markers were screened from the orthologous chromosome of domestic cattle. Thirty bovine markers (46% were suitable as cross-species markers for dissociation curve analysis in the buffalo radiation hybrid panel under a standard protocol, compared to 25 markers suitable for conventional typing. Computational analysis placed 27 markers on a chromosome map generated by the new method, while the gel-based approach produced only 20 mapped markers. Among 19 markers common to both maps, the marker order on the map was maintained perfectly. Conclusion Dissociation curve
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lott, B.; Escande, L.; Larsson, S.; Ballet, J.
2012-01-01
Here, we present a method enabling the creation of constant-uncertainty/constant-significance light curves with the data of the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT). The adaptive-binning method enables more information to be encapsulated within the light curve than with the fixed-binning method. Although primarily developed for blazar studies, it can be applied to any sources. Furthermore, this method allows the starting and ending times of each interval to be calculated in a simple and quick way during a first step. The reported mean flux and spectral index (assuming the spectrum is a power-law distribution) in the interval are calculated via the standard LAT analysis during a second step. In the absence of major caveats associated with this method Monte-Carlo simulations have been established. We present the performance of this method in determining duty cycles as well as power-density spectra relative to the traditional fixed-binning method.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mukherjee, B.
1988-01-01
The Darlington Leak-Before-Break (DLBB) approach has been developed for large diameter (21, 22, 24 inch) SA106B heat transport (HT) piping and SA105 fittings as a design alternative to pipewhip restraints and in recognition of the questionable benefits of providing such restraints. Ontario Hydro's DLBB approach is based on the elastic plastic fracture mechanics method. In this test program, J-resistance curves were determined from actual pipe heats that were used in the construction of the Darlington heat transport systems (Units 1 and 2). Test blocks were prepared using four different welding procedures for nuclear Class I piping. The test program was designed to take into account the effect of various factors such as test temperature, crack plane orientation, welding effects, etc., which have influence on fracture properties. A total of 91 tests were conducted. An acceptable lower bound J-resistance curve for the piping steels was obtained by machining maximum thickness specimens from the pipes and by testing side grooved compact tension specimens. Test results showed that all pipes, welds and heat-affected zone materials within the scope of the DLBB program exhibited uppershelf toughness behaviour. All specimens showed high crack initiation toughness Jsub(lc), rising J-resistance curve and stable and ductile crack extension. Toughness of product forms depended on the direction of crack extension (circumferential versus axial crack orientation). Toughness of DLBB welds and parent materials at 250 0 C was lower than that at 20 0 C. (author)
The generation of an allowable P/T curve of a nuclear RPV using a display-oriented system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hsiming Pan
1992-01-01
A program on personal computer to calculate the allowable pressure and temperature curves for nuclear reactor pressure vessels was developed which would facilitate frequent updating. Analytical solutions and the Green's function approach were used to calculate thermal transient responses in the beltline region. The mathematical formulae and the applicable code rules were computerized in a display format. With this novel application, the program is as readable as a report, debugging is much easier than other programming languages; and engineers can easily convert it for different code criteria. (Author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Santos, Adriano M.; Meira-Belo, Luiz C.; Reis, Sergio C.; Grynberg, Suely E., E-mail: amsantos@cdtn.b [Center for Development of Nuclear Technology (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)
2011-07-01
The interstitial brachytherapy is one modality of radiotherapy in which radioactive sources are placed directly in the region to be treated or close to it. The seeds that are used in the treatment of prostate cancer are generally cylindrical radioactive sources, consisting of a ceramic or metal matrix, which acts as the carrier of the radionuclide and as the X-ray marker, encapsulated in a sealed titanium tube. This study aimed to develop a computational model to reproduce the film-seed geometry, in order to obtain the spatial regions of the isodose curves produced by the seed when it is put over the film surface. The seed modeled in this work was the OncoSeed 6711, a sealed source of iodine-125, which its isodose curves were obtained experimentally in previous work with the use of dosimetric films. For the films modeling, compositions and densities of the two types of dosimetric films were used: Agfa Personal Monitoring photographic film 2/10, manufactured by Agfa-Geavaert; and the model EBT radiochromic film, by International Specialty Products. The film-seed models were coupled to the Monte Carlo code MCNP5. The results obtained by simulations showed to be in good agreement with experimental results performed in a previous work. This indicates that the computational model can be used in future studies for other seeds models. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Santos, Adriano M.; Meira-Belo, Luiz C.; Reis, Sergio C.; Grynberg, Suely E.
2011-01-01
The interstitial brachytherapy is one modality of radiotherapy in which radioactive sources are placed directly in the region to be treated or close to it. The seeds that are used in the treatment of prostate cancer are generally cylindrical radioactive sources, consisting of a ceramic or metal matrix, which acts as the carrier of the radionuclide and as the X-ray marker, encapsulated in a sealed titanium tube. This study aimed to develop a computational model to reproduce the film-seed geometry, in order to obtain the spatial regions of the isodose curves produced by the seed when it is put over the film surface. The seed modeled in this work was the OncoSeed 6711, a sealed source of iodine-125, which its isodose curves were obtained experimentally in previous work with the use of dosimetric films. For the films modeling, compositions and densities of the two types of dosimetric films were used: Agfa Personal Monitoring photographic film 2/10, manufactured by Agfa-Geavaert; and the model EBT radiochromic film, by International Specialty Products. The film-seed models were coupled to the Monte Carlo code MCNP5. The results obtained by simulations showed to be in good agreement with experimental results performed in a previous work. This indicates that the computational model can be used in future studies for other seeds models. (author)
V-I curves and plasma parameters in a high density DC glow discharge generated by a current-source
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Granda-Gutierrez, E E; Lopez-Callejas, R; Piedad-Beneitez, A de la; BenItez-Read, J S; Pacheco-Sotelo, J O; Pena-Eguiluz, R; A, R Valencia; Mercado-Cabrera, A; Barocio, S R
2008-01-01
Nitrogen DC glow discharges, conducted in a cylindrical geometry, have been characterized using a new current-source able to provide 10 -3 - 3 A for the sustainment of the discharge, instead of a conventional voltage-source. The V-I characteristic curves obtained from these discharges were found to fit the general form i(v) = A(p)v k(p) , whereby the plasma itself can be modeled as a voltage-controlled current-source. We conclude that the fitting parameters A and k, which mainly depend on the gas pressure p, are strongly related to the plasma characteristics, so much so that they can indicate the pressure interval in which the maximum plasma density is located, with values in the order of 10 16 m -3 at reduced discharge potential (300-600 V) and low working pressure (10 -1 - 10 1 Pa)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Generalized Probability-Probability Plots
Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.
2004-01-01
We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P
Gloger, Oliver; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger; Völzke, Henry
2015-11-01
In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gloger, Oliver; Völzke, Henry; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger
2015-01-01
In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches. (paper)
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Célio Orli Cardoso
2014-04-01
Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze the frequency distribution and intensity temporal variability of intense rainfall for Lages/SC from diary pluviograph data. Data on annual series of maximum rainfalls from rain gauges of the CAV-UDESC Weather Station in Lages/SC were used from 2000 to 2009. Gumbel statistic distribution was applied in order to obtain the rainfall height and intensity in the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. Results showed intensity-duration-frequency curves (I-D-F for those return periods, as well as I-D-F equations: i=2050.Tr0,20.(t+30-0,89, where i was the intensity, Tr was the rainfall return periods and t was the rainfall duration. For the intensity of temporal variability pattern along of the rainfall duration time, the convective, or advanced pattern was the predominant, with larger precipitate rainfalls in the first half of the duration. The same pattern presented larger occurrences in the spring and summer stations.
Mohsen Gerami; Saeed Ghaffari; Amir Mahdi Heidari Tafreshi
2017-01-01
Fragility curves play an important role in damage assessment of buildings. Probability of damage induction to the structure against seismic events can be investigated upon generation of afore mentioned curves. In current research 360 time history analyses have been carried out on structures of 3, 10 and 20 story height and subsequently fragility curves have been adopted. The curves are developed based on two indices of inter story drifts and equivalent strip axial strains of the shear wall. T...
Matsumoto, Toru; Fukuda, Nobuo; Furukawa, Akira; Suwa, Koji; Wada, Shinichi; Matsumoto, Mitsuomi; Sone, Shusuke
2006-03-01
When physicians inspect an image, they make up a certain degree of confidence that the image are abnormal; p(t), or normal; n(t)[n(t)=1-p(t)]. After infinite time of the inspection, they reach the equilibrium levels of the confidence of p*=p(∞) and n*=n(∞). There are psychological conflicts between the decisions of normal and abnormal. We assume that the decision of "normal" is distracted by the decision of "abnormal" by a factor of k(1 + ap), and in an inverse direction by a factor of k(1 + bn), where k ( > 0) is a parameter that relates with image quality and skill of the physicians, and a and b are unknown constants. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies the equation, k(1 + ap*)n* = k(1 + bn*)p*. Here we define a parameter C, which is 2p*/[p*(1 - p*)]. After the infinite time of inspection, the conflict reaches the equilibrium, which satisfies t that changes in the confidence level with the time (dp/dt) is proportional to [k(1+ap)n - k(1+bn)p], i.e. k[-cp2 + (c - 2)p + 1]. Solving the differential equation, we derived the equation; t(p) and p(t) depending with the parameters; k, c, S. S (0-1) is the value arbitrary selected and related with probability of "abnormal" before the image inspection (S = p(0)). Image reading studies were executed for CT images. ROC curves were generated both by the traditional 4-step score-based method and by the confidence level; p estimated from the equation t(p) of the DDC model using observed judgment time. It was concluded that ROC curves could be generated by measuring time for dichotomous judgment without the subjective scores of diagnostic confidence and applying the DDC model.
Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vyacheslav I. Yukalov
2017-03-01
Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...
Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie
2011-01-01
This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.
Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V
1997-01-01
This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.
Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.
Chamberlain, John
1997-01-01
Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…
Probability and stochastic modeling
Rotar, Vladimir I
2012-01-01
Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...
A note on families of fragility curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaplan, S.; Bier, V.M.; Bley, D.C.
1989-01-01
In the quantitative assessment of seismic risk, uncertainty in the fragility of a structural component is usually expressed by putting forth a family of fragility curves, with probability serving as the parameter of the family. Commonly, a lognormal shape is used both for the individual curves and for the expression of uncertainty over the family. A so-called composite single curve can also be drawn and used for purposes of approximation. This composite curve is often regarded as equivalent to the mean curve of the family. The equality seems intuitively reasonable, but according to the authors has never been proven. The paper presented proves this equivalence hypothesis mathematically. Moreover, the authors show that this equivalence hypothesis between fragility curves is itself equivalent to an identity property of the standard normal probability curve. Thus, in the course of proving the fragility curve hypothesis, the authors have also proved a rather obscure, but interesting and perhaps previously unrecognized, property of the standard normal curve
Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils
Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter
2004-01-01
In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Escande, L.
2012-01-01
The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope was launched on 2008 June 11, carrying the Large Area Telescope (LAT), sensitive to gamma-rays in the 20 MeV - 300 GeV energy range. The data collected since then allowed to multiply by a factor of 10 the number of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) detected in the GeV range. Gamma-rays observed in AGNs come from energetic precesses bringing into play very high energy charged particles. These particles are confined in a magnetized plasma jet rising in a region close to the supermassive black hole in the center of the host galaxy. This jet moves away with velocities as high as 0.9999 c, forming in many cases radio lobes on kilo-parsec or even mega-parsec scales. Among the AGNs, those whose jet inclination angle to the line of sight is small are called blazars. The combination of this small inclination angle with relativistic ejection speeds led to relativistic effects: apparent superluminal motions, amplification of the luminosity and modification of the time scales. Blazars are characterized by extreme variability at all wavelengths, on time scales from a few minutes to several months. A temporal and spectral study of the most luminous of those detected by the LAT, 3C 454.3, was done so as to constrain emission models. A new method for generating adaptive-binning light curves is also suggested in this thesis. It allows to extract the maximum of information from the LAT data whatever the flux state of the source. (author)
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hussein A. Kazem
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a method for determining optimal sizes of PV array, wind turbine, diesel generator, and storage battery installed in a building integrated system. The objective of the proposed optimization is to design the system that can supply a building load demand at minimum cost and maximum availability. The mathematical models for the system components as well as meteorological variables such as solar energy, temperature, and wind speed are employed for this purpose. Moreover, the results showed that the optimum sizing ratios (the daily energy generated by the source to the daily energy demand for the PV array, wind turbine, diesel generator, and battery for a system located in Sohar, Oman, are 0.737, 0.46, 0.22, and 0.17, respectively. A case study represented by a system consisting of 30 kWp PV array (36%, 18 kWp wind farm (55%, and 5 kVA diesel generator (9% is presented. This system is supposed to power a 200 kWh/day load demand. It is found that the generated energy share of the PV array, wind farm, and diesel generator is 36%, 55%, and 9%, respectively, while the cost of energy is 0.17 USD/kWh.
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Survival curves for irradiated cells
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gibson, D.K.
1975-01-01
The subject of the lecture is the probability of survival of biological cells which have been subjected to ionising radiation. The basic mathematical theories of cell survival as a function of radiation dose are developed. A brief comparison with observed survival curves is made. (author)
Prospects for PV: a learning curve analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zwaan, Bob van der; Rabi, A.
2003-01-01
This article gives an overview of the current state-of-the-art of photovoltaic electricity technology, and addresses its potential for cost reductions over the first few decades of the 21st century. Current PV production cost ranges are presented, both in terms of capacity installation and electricity generation, of single crystalline silicon, multi-crystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and other thin film technologies. Possible decreases of these costs are assessed, as expected according to the learning-curve methodology. We also estimate how much PV could gain if external costs (due to environmental and health damage) of energy were internalised, for example by an energy tax. Our conclusions are that, (1) mainly due its high costs, PV electricity is unlikely to play a major role in global energy supply and carbon emissions abatement before 2020, (2) extrapolating learning curves observed in the past, one can expect its costs to decrease significantly over the coming years, so that a considerable PV electricity share world-wide could materialise after 2020, (3) niche-market applications, e.g. using stand-alone systems in remote areas, are crucial for continuing 'the ride along the learning curve', (4) damage costs of conventional (fossil) power sources are considerable, and their internalisation would improve the competitiveness of PV, although probably not enough to close the current cost gap. (author)
Briggs, William M.
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-01-01
distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
finite set can occur as the outcome distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)
Eerkens, Jelmer W; Nichols, Ruth V; Murray, Gemma G R; Perez, Katherine; Murga, Engel; Kaijankoski, Phil; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S; Engbring, Laurel; Shapiro, Beth
2018-05-25
Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) of ancient dental calculus samples from a prehistoric site in San Francisco Bay, CA-SCL-919, reveals a wide range of potentially pathogenic bacteria. One older adult woman, in particular, had high levels of Neisseria meningitidis and low levels of Haemophilus influenzae, species that were not observed in the calculus from three other individuals. Combined with the presence of incipient endocranial lesions and pronounced meningeal grooves, we interpret this as an ancient case of meningococcal disease. This disease afflicts millions around the globe today, but little is known about its (pre)history. With additional sampling, we suggest NGS of calculus offers an exciting new window into the evolutionary history of these bacterial species and their interactions with humans. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Automated Blazar Light Curves Using Machine Learning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Johnson, Spencer James [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-07-27
This presentation describes a problem and methodology pertaining to automated blazar light curves. Namely, optical variability patterns for blazars require the construction of light curves and in order to generate the light curves, data must be filtered before processing to ensure quality.
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cassinelli, G.
1979-01-01
The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)
Consistency Results for the ROC Curves of Fused Classifiers
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Bjerkaas, Kristopher
2004-01-01
.... An established performance quantifier is the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, which allows one to view the probability of detection versus the probability of false alarm in one graph...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohsen Gerami
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Fragility curves play an important role in damage assessment of buildings. Probability of damage induction to the structure against seismic events can be investigated upon generation of afore mentioned curves. In current research 360 time history analyses have been carried out on structures of 3, 10 and 20 story height and subsequently fragility curves have been adopted. The curves are developed based on two indices of inter story drifts and equivalent strip axial strains of the shear wall. Time history analysis is carried out in Perform 3d considering 10 far field seismograms and 10 near fields. Analysis of low height structures revealed that they are more vulnerable in accelerations lower than 0.8 g in near field earthquakes because of higher mode effects. Upon the generated fragility curves it was observed that middle and high structures have more acceptable performance and lower damage levels compared to low height structures in both near and far field seismic hazards.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja
2013-01-01
-arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Electro-Mechanical Resonance Curves
Greenslade, Thomas B., Jr.
2018-01-01
Recently I have been investigating the frequency response of galvanometers. These are direct-current devices used to measure small currents. By using a low-frequency function generator to supply the alternating-current signal and a stopwatch smartphone app to measure the period, I was able to take data to allow a resonance curve to be drawn. This…
Power forward curves: a managerial perspective
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagarajan, Shankar
1999-01-01
This chapter concentrates on managerial application of power forward curves, and examines the determinants of electricity prices such as transmission constraints, its inability to be stored in a conventional way, its seasonality and weather dependence, the generation stack, and the swing risk. The electricity forward curve, classical arbitrage, constructing a forward curve, volatilities, and electricity forward curve models such as the jump-diffusion model, the mean-reverting heteroscedastic volatility model, and an econometric model of forward prices are examined. A managerial perspective of the applications of the forward curve is presented covering plant valuation, capital budgeting, performance measurement, product pricing and structuring, asset optimisation, valuation of transmission options, and risk management
Intersection numbers of spectral curves
Eynard, B.
2011-01-01
We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fraassen, B.C. van
1979-01-01
The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)
基于概率模型的ATC系统冲突目标生成算法%Probability-Based Method of Generating the Conflict Trajectories for ATC System
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
苏志刚; 眭聪聪; 吴仁彪
2011-01-01
For testing the capability of short term conflict alerting of air traffic control system, two methods are usually used. The former is to set a higher threshold, use the real data testing whether the system can alert when distance between two flights gets lower than the threshold. However, this method is not reliable. The second method is simulating flights which will conflict and obtain their trajectory from calculating, and then send these data to ATC system to see its reaction. This method is usually too simple to test whether the system can pre-detect a conflict effectively. To solve these problems, a probabilistic approach is used in this paper to simulate air-crafts with given probability of conflicting. Firstly, we derived the conflict probability of turing flights from Prandaini' s method of conflict probability estimation for linear flight. Then using reverse derivation we got the motion parameters of two targets whose conflict probability was pre-setted. At last, we simulated this pair of targets' track and anlysised their conflict probability. The simulation results show that the targets' probability of conflict was in line with the previous assumption. The trajectories generated by this algorithm are more realistic then a more effective conclusion of ATC system' s capability of short term conflict alerting and pre-detecting will be provided.%通常用于测试空中交通管制(Air Traffic Control,ATC)自动化系统的飞行冲突告警功能的方法主要有放宽系统告警值和向系统输入模拟的飞行冲突目标的雷达数据.前一种方法存在不可靠性,第二种方法由于只产生简单的确定目标轨迹数据,因此只能简单地测试系统能否告警,无法对系统的飞行冲突预测能力作出评价.为了使用于测试系统的模拟雷达数据更符合实际飞行情况,并检测系统预测飞行冲突的技术水平,本文提出了一种基于飞行冲突概率模型的航迹模拟方法,通过对不同目标
The quantum probability calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jauch, J.M.
1976-01-01
The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Janusz Charatonik
1991-11-01
Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.
Probability of satellite collision
Mccarter, J. W.
1972-01-01
A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Calibration curves for biological dosimetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guerrero C, C.; Brena V, M. . E-mail cgc@nuclear.inin.mx
2004-01-01
The generated information by the investigations in different laboratories of the world, included the ININ, in which settles down that certain class of chromosomal leisure it increases in function of the dose and radiation type, has given by result the obtaining of calibrated curves that are applied in the well-known technique as biological dosimetry. In this work is presented a summary of the work made in the laboratory that includes the calibrated curves for gamma radiation of 60 Cobalt and X rays of 250 k Vp, examples of presumed exposure to ionizing radiation, resolved by means of aberration analysis and the corresponding dose estimate through the equations of the respective curves and finally a comparison among the dose calculations in those people affected by the accident of Ciudad Juarez, carried out by the group of Oak Ridge, USA and those obtained in this laboratory. (Author)
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Rocchi, Paolo
2014-01-01
The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.
Considerations for reference pump curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stockton, N.B.
1992-01-01
This paper examines problems associated with inservice testing (IST) of pumps to assess their hydraulic performance using reference pump curves to establish acceptance criteria. Safety-related pumps at nuclear power plants are tested under the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (the Code), Section 11. The Code requires testing pumps at specific reference points of differential pressure or flow rate that can be readily duplicated during subsequent tests. There are many cases where test conditions cannot be duplicated. For some pumps, such as service water or component cooling pumps, the flow rate at any time depends on plant conditions and the arrangement of multiple independent and constantly changing loads. System conditions cannot be controlled to duplicate a specific reference value. In these cases, utilities frequently request to use pump curves for comparison of test data for acceptance. There is no prescribed method for developing a pump reference curve. The methods vary and may yield substantially different results. Some results are conservative when compared to the Code requirements; some are not. The errors associated with different curve testing techniques should be understood and controlled within reasonable bounds. Manufacturer's pump curves, in general, are not sufficiently accurate to use as reference pump curves for IST. Testing using reference curves generated with polynomial least squares fits over limited ranges of pump operation, cubic spline interpolation, or cubic spline least squares fits can provide a measure of pump hydraulic performance that is at least as accurate as the Code required method. Regardless of the test method, error can be reduced by using more accurate instruments, by correcting for systematic errors, by increasing the number of data points, and by taking repetitive measurements at each data point
Remote sensing used for power curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, R; Joergensen, H E; Paulsen, U S; Larsen, T J; Antoniou, I; Thesbjerg, L
2008-01-01
Power curve measurement for large wind turbines requires taking into account more parameters than only the wind speed at hub height. Based on results from aerodynamic simulations, an equivalent wind speed taking the wind shear into account was defined and found to reduce the power standard deviation in the power curve significantly. Two LiDARs and a SoDAR are used to measure the wind profile in front of a wind turbine. These profiles are used to calculate the equivalent wind speed. The comparison of the power curves obtained with the three instruments to the traditional power curve, obtained using a cup anemometer measurement, confirms the results obtained from the simulations. Using LiDAR profiles reduces the error in power curve measurement, when these are used as relative instrument together with a cup anemometer. Results from the SoDAR do not show such promising results, probably because of noisy measurements resulting in distorted profiles
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.
1989-01-01
The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs
Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing
Zak, M.
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.
Probability elements of the mathematical theory
Heathcote, C R
2000-01-01
Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Quantum computing and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferry, David K
2009-01-01
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)
Curved Folded Plate Timber Structures
Buri, Hans Ulrich; Stotz, Ivo; Weinand, Yves
2011-01-01
This work investigates the development of a Curved Origami Prototype made with timber panels. In the last fifteen years the timber industry has developed new, large size, timber panels. Composition and dimensions of these panels and the possibility of milling them with Computer Numerical Controlled machines shows great potential for folded plate structures. To generate the form of these structures we were inspired by Origami, the Japanese art of paper folding. Common paper tessellations are c...
Risk estimation using probability machines
2014-01-01
Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306
Escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bjerke, M.A.
1980-01-01
An improved technique for the generation of escape and transmission probabilities in cylindrical geometry was applied to the existing resonance cross section processing code ROLAIDS. The algorithm of Hwang and Toppel, [ANL-FRA-TM-118] (with modifications) was employed. The probabilities generated were found to be as accurate as those given by the method previously applied in ROLAIDS, while requiring much less computer core storage and CPU time
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
René Pellissier
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.
Critical Factors for Inducing Curved Somatosensory Saccades
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tamami Nakano
2011-10-01
Full Text Available We are able to make a saccade toward a tactile stimuli to one hand, but trajectories of many saccades curved markedly when the arms were crossed (Groh & Sparks, 2006. However, it remains unknown why some curved and others did not. We therefore examined critical factors for inducing the curved somatosensory saccades. Participants made a saccade as soon as possible from a central fixation point toward a tactile stimulus delivered to one of the two hands, and switched between arms-crossed and arms-uncrossed postures every 6 trials. Trajectories were generally straight when the arms were uncrossed, but all participants made curved saccades when the arms were crossed (12–64%. We found that the probability of curved saccades depended critically on the onset latency: the probability was less than 5% when the latency was larger than 250 ms, but the probability increased up to 70–80% when the onset latency was 160 ms. This relationship was shared across participants. The results suggest that a touch in the arms-crossed posture was always mapped to the wrong hand in the initial phase up to 160 ms, and then remapped to the correct hand during the next 100 ms by some fundamental neural mechanisms shared across participants.
MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment
Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf
2018-01-01
MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
曾鸣; 鹿伟; 段金辉; 李娜
2012-01-01
随着太阳能这一新能源的开发,在低碳经济时代,降低光伏发电成本以提高其可利用性显得尤为重要.在Wright基本学习曲线模型的基础上,建立太阳能光伏发电的双因素学习曲线模型,研究了太阳能光伏组件累积生产量和累积研发量对太阳能光伏发电成本的影响.采用2001年至2010年10a的数据,运用最小二乘法,检验参数的显著性,进而确定模型的可行性.并利用此双因素学习曲线模型对我国未来10a的太阳能光伏发电成本做了预测,得出在累积生产量和累积研发量发展情况不同的情形下,光伏发电成本的降低程度不同.表明应大力开发太阳能光伏发电产业,平衡累积生产量和累积研发量,使太阳能光伏发电的成本降低.同时对如何降低光伏发电成本提出了建议,为政策制定者提供一定的参考.%Along with the development of solar energy, it is particularly important to reduce the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation to improve its availability for low carbon economic. The double- factors learning curve model of solar photovoltaic power generation is built based on the Wright's basic learning curve model, and the influence of the accumulated production amount and the accumulated research and development amount of solar photovoltaic modules on the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation is studied. The ten- year data between 2001 and 2010 are used to test the significance of the parameters and to confirm the feasibility of the model by using of the least square method. In the end, the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation in future ten years is predicted, and the conclusion is that the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation reduces in different degree under different development situation. At the same time, proposals for reducing the cost are given, which provides certain reference for policy makers.
Probability matching and strategy availability.
Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta
2010-09-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.
Irreversibility and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio
2017-01-01
In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.
Tempo curves considered harmful
Desain, P.; Honing, H.
1993-01-01
In the literature of musicology, computer music research and the psychology of music, timing or tempo measurements are mostly presented in the form of continuous curves. The notion of these tempo curves is dangerous, despite its widespread use, because it lulls its users into the false impression
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...
Principal Curves on Riemannian Manifolds.
Hauberg, Soren
2016-09-01
Euclidean statistics are often generalized to Riemannian manifolds by replacing straight-line interpolations with geodesic ones. While these Riemannian models are familiar-looking, they are restricted by the inflexibility of geodesics, and they rely on constructions which are optimal only in Euclidean domains. We consider extensions of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to Riemannian manifolds. Classic Riemannian approaches seek a geodesic curve passing through the mean that optimizes a criteria of interest. The requirements that the solution both is geodesic and must pass through the mean tend to imply that the methods only work well when the manifold is mostly flat within the support of the generating distribution. We argue that instead of generalizing linear Euclidean models, it is more fruitful to generalize non-linear Euclidean models. Specifically, we extend the classic Principal Curves from Hastie & Stuetzle to data residing on a complete Riemannian manifold. We show that for elliptical distributions in the tangent of spaces of constant curvature, the standard principal geodesic is a principal curve. The proposed model is simple to compute and avoids many of the pitfalls of traditional geodesic approaches. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the Riemannian principal curves on several manifolds and datasets.
Chou, Kai-Seng
2001-01-01
Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
2014-01-01
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grunewald, Thomas; Finke, Robert; Graetz, Rainer
2010-07-01
Mechanically generated sparks are a potential source of ignition in highly combustible areas. A multiplicity of mechanical and reaction-kinetic influences causes a complex interaction of parameters. It is only little known about their effect on the ignition probability. The ignition probability of mechanically generated sparks with a material combination of unalloyed steel/unalloyed steel and with an kinetic impact energy between 3 and 277 Nm could be determined statistically tolerable. In addition, the explosiveness of not oxidized particles at increased temperatures in excess stoichiometric mixtures was proven. A unique correlation between impact energy and ignition probability as well as a correlation of impact energy and number of separated particles could be determined. Also, a principle component analysis considering the interaction of individual particles could not find a specific combination of measurable characteristics of the particles, which correlate with a distinct increase of the ignition probability.
Probabilities of Natural Events Occurring at Savannah River Plant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huang, J.C.
2001-07-17
This report documents the comprehensive evaluation of probability models of natural events which are applicable to Savannah River Plant. The probability curves selected for these natural events are recommended to be used by all SRP/SRL safety analysts. This will ensure a consistency in analysis methodology for postulated SAR incidents involving natural phenomena.
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Transition probabilities for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Y.K.
1980-01-01
Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shimada, Yoshio
2000-01-01
It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Prochno
2004-07-01
Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.
Probability concepts in quality risk management.
Claycamp, H Gregg
2012-01-01
Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as
Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando
2014-01-01
We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Transient stability probability evaluation of power system incorporating with wind farm and SMES
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fang, Jiakun; Miao, Lu; Wen, Jinyu
2013-01-01
Large scale renewable power generation brings great challenges to the power system operation and stabilization. Energy storage is one of the most important technologies to face the challenges. This paper proposes a method for transient stability probability evaluation of power system with wind farm...... and SMES. Firstly, a modified 11-bus test system with both wind farm and SMES has been implemented. The wind farm is represented as a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). Then a stochastic-based approach to evaluate the probabilistic transient stability index of the power system is presented. Uncertain...... the probability indices. With the proposed method based on Monte-Carlo simulation and bisection method, system stability is "measured". Quantitative relationship of penetration level, SMES coil size and system stability is established. Considering the stability versus coil size to be the production curve...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lippoldt, Stefan
2016-01-21
In this thesis we study a formulation of Dirac fermions in curved spacetime that respects general coordinate invariance as well as invariance under local spin base transformations. We emphasize the advantages of the spin base invariant formalism both from a conceptual as well as from a practical viewpoint. This suggests that local spin base invariance should be added to the list of (effective) properties of (quantum) gravity theories. We find support for this viewpoint by the explicit construction of a global realization of the Clifford algebra on a 2-sphere which is impossible in the spin-base non-invariant vielbein formalism. The natural variables for this formulation are spacetime-dependent Dirac matrices subject to the Clifford-algebra constraint. In particular, a coframe, i.e. vielbein field is not required. We disclose the hidden spin base invariance of the vielbein formalism. Explicit formulas for the spin connection as a function of the Dirac matrices are found. This connection consists of a canonical part that is completely fixed in terms of the Dirac matrices and a free part that can be interpreted as spin torsion. The common Lorentz symmetric gauge for the vielbein is constructed for the Dirac matrices, even for metrics which are not linearly connected. Under certain criteria, it constitutes the simplest possible gauge, demonstrating why this gauge is so useful. Using the spin base formulation for building a field theory of quantized gravity and matter fields, we show that it suffices to quantize the metric and the matter fields. This observation is of particular relevance for field theory approaches to quantum gravity, as it can serve for a purely metric-based quantization scheme for gravity even in the presence of fermions. Hence, in the second part of this thesis we critically examine the gauge, and the field-parametrization dependence of renormalization group flows in the vicinity of non-Gaussian fixed points in quantum gravity. While physical
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kožul Nataša
2014-01-01
Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — an UV calibration curve for SRHA quantitation. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Chang, X., and D. Bouchard. Surfactant-Wrapped Multiwalled...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gruhn, C.R.
1981-05-01
An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sutawanir Darwis
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knudsen, J.K.
2001-01-01
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Georgieva Yankova, Ginka; Federici, Paolo
This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2.......This report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given turbine in a chosen period. The measurements are carried out in accordance to IEC 61400-12-1 Ed. 1 and FGW Teil 2....
Alexeev, Valery; Clemens, C Herbert; Beauville, Arnaud
2008-01-01
This book is devoted to recent progress in the study of curves and abelian varieties. It discusses both classical aspects of this deep and beautiful subject as well as two important new developments, tropical geometry and the theory of log schemes. In addition to original research articles, this book contains three surveys devoted to singularities of theta divisors, of compactified Jacobians of singular curves, and of "strange duality" among moduli spaces of vector bundles on algebraic varieties.
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Retrocausality and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
Utilization of curve offsets in additive manufacturing
Haseltalab, Vahid; Yaman, Ulas; Dolen, Melik
2018-05-01
Curve offsets are utilized in different fields of engineering and science. Additive manufacturing, which lately becomes an explicit requirement in manufacturing industry, utilizes curve offsets widely. One of the necessities of offsetting is for scaling which is required if there is shrinkage after the fabrication or if the surface quality of the resulting part is unacceptable. Therefore, some post-processing is indispensable. But the major application of curve offsets in additive manufacturing processes is for generating head trajectories. In a point-wise AM process, a correct tool-path in each layer can reduce lots of costs and increase the surface quality of the fabricated parts. In this study, different curve offset generation algorithms are analyzed to show their capabilities and disadvantages through some test cases and improvements on their drawbacks are suggested.
Linking probabilities of off-lattice self-avoiding polygons and the effects of excluded volume
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirayama, Naomi; Deguchi, Tetsuo; Tsurusaki, Kyoichi
2009-01-01
We evaluate numerically the probability of linking, i.e. the probability of a given pair of self-avoiding polygons (SAPs) being entangled and forming a nontrivial link type L. In the simulation we generate pairs of SAPs of N spherical segments of radius r d such that they have no overlaps among the segments and each of the SAPs has the trivial knot type. We evaluate the probability of a self-avoiding pair of SAPs forming a given link type L for various link types with fixed distance R between the centers of mass of the two SAPs. We define normalized distance r by r=R/R g,0 1 where R g,0 1 denotes the square root of the mean square radius of gyration of SAP of the trivial knot 0 1 . We introduce formulae expressing the linking probability as a function of normalized distance r, which gives good fitting curves with respect to χ 2 values. We also investigate the dependence of linking probabilities on the excluded-volume parameter r d and the number of segments, N. Quite interestingly, the graph of linking probability versus normalized distance r shows no N-dependence at a particular value of the excluded volume parameter, r d = 0.2
Strange Curves, Counting Rabbits, & Other Mathematical Explorations
Ball, Keith
2011-01-01
How does mathematics enable us to send pictures from space back to Earth? Where does the bell-shaped curve come from? Why do you need only 23 people in a room for a 50/50 chance of two of them sharing the same birthday? In Strange Curves, Counting Rabbits, and Other Mathematical Explorations, Keith Ball highlights how ideas, mostly from pure math, can answer these questions and many more. Drawing on areas of mathematics from probability theory, number theory, and geometry, he explores a wide range of concepts, some more light-hearted, others central to the development of the field and used dai
Investigation of learning and experience curves
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Krawiec, F.; Thornton, J.; Edesess, M.
1980-04-01
The applicability of learning and experience curves for predicting future costs of solar technologies is assessed, and the major test case is the production economics of heliostats. Alternative methods for estimating cost reductions in systems manufacture are discussed, and procedures for using learning and experience curves to predict costs are outlined. Because adequate production data often do not exist, production histories of analogous products/processes are analyzed and learning and aggregated cost curves for these surrogates estimated. If the surrogate learning curves apply, they can be used to estimate solar technology costs. The steps involved in generating these cost estimates are given. Second-generation glass-steel and inflated-bubble heliostat design concepts, developed by MDAC and GE, respectively, are described; a costing scenario for 25,000 units/yr is detailed; surrogates for cost analysis are chosen; learning and aggregate cost curves are estimated; and aggregate cost curves for the GE and MDAC designs are estimated. However, an approach that combines a neoclassical production function with a learning-by-doing hypothesis is needed to yield a cost relation compatible with the historical learning curve and the traditional cost function of economic theory.
Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard
2003-01-01
We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...
Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob
2003-01-01
We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange
Probability mapping of contaminants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)
1994-04-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.
1994-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Probability of causation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jose, D.E.
1988-01-01
Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice
Generalized Probability Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
2014-06-30
precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux
Approximation by planar elastic curves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge
2016-01-01
We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gómez Arranz, Paula; Vesth, Allan
This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here, the refere......This report describes the power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine in a chosen period. The measurements were carried out following the measurement procedure in the draft of IEC 61400-12-1 Ed.2 [1], with some deviations mostly regarding uncertainty calculation. Here......, the reference wind speed used in the power curve is the equivalent wind speed obtained from lidar measurements at several heights between lower and upper blade tip, in combination with a hub height meteorological mast. The measurements have been performed using DTU’s measurement equipment, the analysis...
Curved electromagnetic missiles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Myers, J.M.; Shen, H.M.; Wu, T.T.
1989-01-01
Transient electromagnetic fields can exhibit interesting behavior in the limit of great distances from their sources. In situations of finite total radiated energy, the energy reaching a distant receiver can decrease with distance much more slowly than the usual r - 2 . Cases of such slow decrease have been referred to as electromagnetic missiles. All of the wide variety of known missiles propagate in essentially straight lines. A sketch is presented here of a missile that can follow a path that is strongly curved. An example of a curved electromagnetic missile is explicitly constructed and some of its properties are discussed. References to details available elsewhere are given
Algebraic curves and cryptography
Murty, V Kumar
2010-01-01
It is by now a well-known paradigm that public-key cryptosystems can be built using finite Abelian groups and that algebraic geometry provides a supply of such groups through Abelian varieties over finite fields. Of special interest are the Abelian varieties that are Jacobians of algebraic curves. All of the articles in this volume are centered on the theme of point counting and explicit arithmetic on the Jacobians of curves over finite fields. The topics covered include Schoof's \\ell-adic point counting algorithm, the p-adic algorithms of Kedlaya and Denef-Vercauteren, explicit arithmetic on
IGMtransmission: Transmission curve computation
Harrison, Christopher M.; Meiksin, Avery; Stock, David
2015-04-01
IGMtransmission is a Java graphical user interface that implements Monte Carlo simulations to compute the corrections to colors of high-redshift galaxies due to intergalactic attenuation based on current models of the Intergalactic Medium. The effects of absorption due to neutral hydrogen are considered, with particular attention to the stochastic effects of Lyman Limit Systems. Attenuation curves are produced, as well as colors for a wide range of filter responses and model galaxy spectra. Photometric filters are included for the Hubble Space Telescope, the Keck telescope, the Mt. Palomar 200-inch, the SUBARU telescope and UKIRT; alternative filter response curves and spectra may be readily uploaded.
Surface growth kinematics via local curve evolution
Moulton, Derek E.
2012-11-18
A mathematical framework is developed to model the kinematics of surface growth for objects that can be generated by evolving a curve in space, such as seashells and horns. Growth is dictated by a growth velocity vector field defined at every point on a generating curve. A local orthonormal basis is attached to each point of the generating curve and the velocity field is given in terms of the local coordinate directions, leading to a fully local and elegant mathematical structure. Several examples of increasing complexity are provided, and we demonstrate how biologically relevant structures such as logarithmic shells and horns emerge as analytical solutions of the kinematics equations with a small number of parameters that can be linked to the underlying growth process. Direct access to cell tracks and local orientation enables for connections to be made to the underlying growth process. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Probable maximum flood control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.
1991-11-01
This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility
Tumor control probability after a radiation of animal tumors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urano, Muneyasu; Ando, Koichi; Koike, Sachiko; Nesumi, Naofumi
1975-01-01
Tumor control and regrowth probability of animal tumors irradiated with a single x-ray dose were determined, using a spontaneous C3H mouse mammary carcinoma. Cellular radiation sensitivity of tumor cells and tumor control probability of the tumor were examined by the TD 50 and TCD 50 assays respectively. Tumor growth kinetics were measured by counting the percentage of labelled mitosis and by measuring the growth curve. A mathematical analysis of tumor control probability was made from these results. A formula proposed, accounted for cell population kinetics or division probability model, cell sensitivity to radiation and number of tumor cells. (auth.)
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
IAS Admin
statistics at all levels. .... P(Ai) for k < ∞ and A1,A2, ··· ,Ak ∈ F and Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ for i = j. Next, it is reasonable to require that F be closed .... roll of dice, card games such as Bridge. ..... ing data (i.e., generating random variables) according to ...
Learning from uncertain curves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mallasto, Anton; Feragen, Aasa
2017-01-01
We introduce a novel framework for statistical analysis of populations of nondegenerate Gaussian processes (GPs), which are natural representations of uncertain curves. This allows inherent variation or uncertainty in function-valued data to be properly incorporated in the population analysis. Us...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Federici, Paolo; Kock, Carsten Weber
This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vesth, Allan; Kock, Carsten Weber
The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Federici, Paolo; Vesth, Allan
The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Villanueva, Héctor; Gómez Arranz, Paula
The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine...
Groot, L.F.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073642398
2008-01-01
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it exhibits that standard tools in the measurement of income inequality, such as the Lorenz curve and the Gini-index, can successfully be applied to the issues of inequality measurement of carbon emissions and the equity of abatement policies across
Hunter, Walter M.
This document contains detailed directions for constructing a device that mechanically produces the three-dimensional shape resulting from the rotation of any algebraic line or curve around either axis on the coordinate plant. The device was developed in response to student difficulty in visualizing, and thus grasping the mathematical principles…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gómez Arranz, Paula; Wagner, Rozenn
This report describes the power curve measurements performed with a nacelle LIDAR on a given wind turbine in a wind farm and during a chosen measurement period. The measurements and analysis are carried out in accordance to the guidelines in the procedure “DTU Wind Energy-E-0019” [1]. The reporting...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vesth, Allan; Kock, Carsten Weber
The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...
Textbook Factor Demand Curves.
Davis, Joe C.
1994-01-01
Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)
Bernstein, D.J.; Birkner, P.; Lange, T.; Peters, C.P.
2013-01-01
This paper introduces EECM-MPFQ, a fast implementation of the elliptic-curve method of factoring integers. EECM-MPFQ uses fewer modular multiplications than the well-known GMP-ECM software, takes less time than GMP-ECM, and finds more primes than GMP-ECM. The main improvements above the
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Federici, Paolo; Kock, Carsten Weber
The report describes power curve measurements carried out on a given wind turbine. The measurements are carried out in accordance to Ref. [1]. A site calibration has been carried out; see Ref. [2], and the measured flow correction factors for different wind directions are used in the present...... analyze of power performance of the turbine...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang Weiming; Lee, Grace W.M.; Wu Chihcheng
2008-01-01
The Kyoto Protocol attempts through political negotiations to guide participating industrialized countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a positive growing trend, to reach a peak point (or turning point), and then be reduced to a negative growth. That means the relationship between decreasing GHG emissions and economic growth may be described by an inverted-U curve (or called a bell-shaped curve), which is consistent with the concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. This research observed that the economic development and GHG emissions in Economies in Transition (EITs) exhibit a hockey-stick curve trend (or called quasi-L-shape curve), that also generates a lot of 'hot air' which is significant to the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, through the analysis of single-country time series data and GDP data, this research demonstrated that statistical data for most of the Annex II countries do not possess evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for GHG emissions. The results from this study also indicated that the 38 industrialized countries are unable to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol within the specified time period, which are probably caused by the econometric method's inability to predict accurately the extents and development of innovative technologies and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. If the international community truly wants to reduce the GHG emissions, the effectiveness of the existing international framework for emissions reduction needs to be reconsidered seriously, and the global cooperation mechanism also needs to be greatly enhanced
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Graziani, G.; Maineri, M.; Zanantoni, C.
1976-12-01
The role of the load-duration curve in determining the installation policy for an electric power system, is examined. The effect of the priority order for the allocation of the power stations in the load-diagram is also discussed: in the model used here (program TOTEM) this priority is given as a function of type and age of the station. The significance of the load factor history for a power station as a function of its age is also discussed. It is suggested that such a curve be deduced as a result of strategy calculations made with TOTEM rather than assumping it as input data
Probability and rational choice
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Botting
2014-05-01
Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.
Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo
2015-01-01
We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(−N/N K ), where the estimates of parameter N K are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius r ex , i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA. (paper)
用于统计测试概率分布生成的自动搜索方法%Automated Search Method for Statistical Test Probability Distribution Generation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
周晓莹; 高建华
2013-01-01
A strategy based on automated search for probability distribution construction is proposed, which comprises the design of representation format and evaluation function for the probability distribution. Combining with simulated annealing algorithm, an indicator is defined to formalize the automated search process based on the Markov model. Experimental results show that the method effectively improves the accuracy of the automated search, which can reduce the expense of statistical test by providing the statistical test with fairly efficient test data since it successfully finds the neat-optimal probability distribution within a certain time.%提出一种基于自动搜索的概率分布生成方法,设计对概率分布的表示形式与评估函数,同时结合模拟退火算法设计基于马尔可夫模型的自动搜索过程.实验结果表明,该方法能够有效地提高自动搜索的准确性,在一定时间内成功找到接近最优的概率分布,生成高效的测试数据,同时达到降低统计测试成本的目的.
Generazio, Edward R.
2015-01-01
Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.
Walker, Judy L
2000-01-01
When information is transmitted, errors are likely to occur. Coding theory examines efficient ways of packaging data so that these errors can be detected, or even corrected. The traditional tools of coding theory have come from combinatorics and group theory. Lately, however, coding theorists have added techniques from algebraic geometry to their toolboxes. In particular, by re-interpreting the Reed-Solomon codes, one can see how to define new codes based on divisors on algebraic curves. For instance, using modular curves over finite fields, Tsfasman, Vladut, and Zink showed that one can define a sequence of codes with asymptotically better parameters than any previously known codes. This monograph is based on a series of lectures the author gave as part of the IAS/PCMI program on arithmetic algebraic geometry. Here, the reader is introduced to the exciting field of algebraic geometric coding theory. Presenting the material in the same conversational tone of the lectures, the author covers linear codes, inclu...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Groot, L. [Utrecht University, Utrecht School of Economics, Janskerkhof 12, 3512 BL Utrecht (Netherlands)
2008-11-15
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it exhibits that standard tools in the measurement of income inequality, such as the Lorenz curve and the Gini-index, can successfully be applied to the issues of inequality measurement of carbon emissions and the equity of abatement policies across countries. These tools allow policy-makers and the general public to grasp at a single glance the impact of conventional distribution rules such as equal caps or grandfathering, or more sophisticated ones, on the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions. Second, using the Samuelson rule for the optimal provision of a public good, the Pareto-optimal distribution of carbon emissions is compared with the distribution that follows if countries follow Nash-Cournot abatement strategies. It is shown that the Pareto-optimal distribution under the Samuelson rule can be approximated by the equal cap division, represented by the diagonal in the Lorenz curve diagram.
Pelce, Pierre
1989-01-01
In recent years, much progress has been made in the understanding of interface dynamics of various systems: hydrodynamics, crystal growth, chemical reactions, and combustion. Dynamics of Curved Fronts is an important contribution to this field and will be an indispensable reference work for researchers and graduate students in physics, applied mathematics, and chemical engineering. The book consist of a 100 page introduction by the editor and 33 seminal articles from various disciplines.
David G. Blanchflower; Andrew J. Oswald
1992-01-01
The paper provides evidence for the existence of a negatively sloped locus linking the level of pay to the rate of regional (or industry) unemployment. This "wage curve" is estimated using microeconomic data for Britain, the US, Canada, Korea, Austria, Italy, Holland, Switzerland, Norway, and Germany, The average unemployment elasticity of pay is approximately -0.1. The paper sets out a multi-region efficiency wage model and argues that its predictions are consistent with the data.
Anatomical curve identification
Bowman, Adrian W.; Katina, Stanislav; Smith, Joanna; Brown, Denise
2015-01-01
Methods for capturing images in three dimensions are now widely available, with stereo-photogrammetry and laser scanning being two common approaches. In anatomical studies, a number of landmarks are usually identified manually from each of these images and these form the basis of subsequent statistical analysis. However, landmarks express only a very small proportion of the information available from the images. Anatomically defined curves have the advantage of providing a much richer expression of shape. This is explored in the context of identifying the boundary of breasts from an image of the female torso and the boundary of the lips from a facial image. The curves of interest are characterised by ridges or valleys. Key issues in estimation are the ability to navigate across the anatomical surface in three-dimensions, the ability to recognise the relevant boundary and the need to assess the evidence for the presence of the surface feature of interest. The first issue is addressed by the use of principal curves, as an extension of principal components, the second by suitable assessment of curvature and the third by change-point detection. P-spline smoothing is used as an integral part of the methods but adaptations are made to the specific anatomical features of interest. After estimation of the boundary curves, the intermediate surfaces of the anatomical feature of interest can be characterised by surface interpolation. This allows shape variation to be explored using standard methods such as principal components. These tools are applied to a collection of images of women where one breast has been reconstructed after mastectomy and where interest lies in shape differences between the reconstructed and unreconstructed breasts. They are also applied to a collection of lip images where possible differences in shape between males and females are of interest. PMID:26041943
Estimating Corporate Yield Curves
Antionio Diaz; Frank Skinner
2001-01-01
This paper represents the first study of retail deposit spreads of UK financial institutions using stochastic interest rate modelling and the market comparable approach. By replicating quoted fixed deposit rates using the Black Derman and Toy (1990) stochastic interest rate model, we find that the spread between fixed and variable rates of interest can be modeled (and priced) using an interest rate swap analogy. We also find that we can estimate an individual bank deposit yield curve as a spr...
Vo, Martin
2017-08-01
Light Curves Classifier uses data mining and machine learning to obtain and classify desired objects. This task can be accomplished by attributes of light curves or any time series, including shapes, histograms, or variograms, or by other available information about the inspected objects, such as color indices, temperatures, and abundances. After specifying features which describe the objects to be searched, the software trains on a given training sample, and can then be used for unsupervised clustering for visualizing the natural separation of the sample. The package can be also used for automatic tuning parameters of used methods (for example, number of hidden neurons or binning ratio). Trained classifiers can be used for filtering outputs from astronomical databases or data stored locally. The Light Curve Classifier can also be used for simple downloading of light curves and all available information of queried stars. It natively can connect to OgleII, OgleIII, ASAS, CoRoT, Kepler, Catalina and MACHO, and new connectors or descriptors can be implemented. In addition to direct usage of the package and command line UI, the program can be used through a web interface. Users can create jobs for ”training” methods on given objects, querying databases and filtering outputs by trained filters. Preimplemented descriptors, classifier and connectors can be picked by simple clicks and their parameters can be tuned by giving ranges of these values. All combinations are then calculated and the best one is used for creating the filter. Natural separation of the data can be visualized by unsupervised clustering.
COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.
1979-01-01
1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions
Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust
Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen
2017-01-01
In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output
Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith
2013-01-01
Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.
Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes
Hlušek, Martin
2002-01-01
The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.
Flow characteristics of curved ducts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rudolf P.
2007-10-01
Full Text Available Curved channels are very often present in real hydraulic systems, e.g. curved diffusers of hydraulic turbines, S-shaped bulb turbines, fittings, etc. Curvature brings change of velocity profile, generation of vortices and production of hydraulic losses. Flow simulation using CFD techniques were performed to understand these phenomena. Cases ranging from single elbow to coupled elbows in shapes of U, S and spatial right angle position with circular cross-section were modeled for Re = 60000. Spatial development of the flow was studied and consequently it was deduced that minor losses are connected with the transformation of pressure energy into kinetic energy and vice versa. This transformation is a dissipative process and is reflected in the amount of the energy irreversibly lost. Least loss coefficient is connected with flow in U-shape elbows, biggest one with flow in Sshape elbows. Finally, the extent of the flow domain influenced by presence of curvature was examined. This isimportant for proper placement of mano- and flowmeters during experimental tests. Simulations were verified with experimental results presented in literature.
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Ross, Sheldon
2014-01-01
A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.
Uniformization of elliptic curves
Ülkem, Özge; Ulkem, Ozge
2015-01-01
Every elliptic curve E defined over C is analytically isomorphic to C*=qZ for some q ∊ C*. Similarly, Tate has shown that if E is defined over a p-adic field K, then E is analytically isomorphic to K*=qZ for some q ∊ K . Further the isomorphism E(K) ≅ K*/qZ respects the action of the Galois group GK/K, where K is the algebraic closure of K. I will explain the construction of this isomorphism.
Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wallin, K.
1999-01-01
Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original database was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)
Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R.
1998-01-01
Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'Master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)
Unthank, Michael D.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Williamson, Tanja N.; Nelson, Hugh L.
2012-01-01
Flow- and load-duration curves were constructed from the model outputs of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) application for streams in Kentucky. The WATER application was designed to access multiple geospatial datasets to generate more than 60 years of statistically based streamflow data for Kentucky. The WATER application enables a user to graphically select a site on a stream and generate an estimated hydrograph and flow-duration curve for the watershed upstream of that point. The flow-duration curves are constructed by calculating the exceedance probability of the modeled daily streamflows. User-defined water-quality criteria and (or) sampling results can be loaded into the WATER application to construct load-duration curves that are based on the modeled streamflow results. Estimates of flow and streamflow statistics were derived from TOPographically Based Hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL) simulations in the WATER application. A modified TOPMODEL code, SDP-TOPMODEL (Sinkhole Drainage Process-TOPMODEL) was used to simulate daily mean discharges over the period of record for 5 karst and 5 non-karst watersheds in Kentucky in order to verify the calibrated model. A statistical evaluation of the model's verification simulations show that calibration criteria, established by previous WATER application reports, were met thus insuring the model's ability to provide acceptably accurate estimates of discharge at gaged and ungaged sites throughout Kentucky. Flow-duration curves are constructed in the WATER application by calculating the exceedence probability of the modeled daily flow values. The flow-duration intervals are expressed as a percentage, with zero corresponding to the highest stream discharge in the streamflow record. Load-duration curves are constructed by applying the loading equation (Load = Flow*Water-quality criterion) at each flow interval.
Roc curves for continuous data
Krzanowski, Wojtek J
2009-01-01
Since ROC curves have become ubiquitous in many application areas, the various advances have been scattered across disparate articles and texts. ROC Curves for Continuous Data is the first book solely devoted to the subject, bringing together all the relevant material to provide a clear understanding of how to analyze ROC curves.The fundamental theory of ROC curvesThe book first discusses the relationship between the ROC curve and numerous performance measures and then extends the theory into practice by describing how ROC curves are estimated. Further building on the theory, the authors prese
A brief introduction to probability.
Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio
2018-02-01
The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.
Fitting fatigue test data with a novel S-N curve using frequentist and Bayesian inference
Leonetti, D.; Maljaars, J.; Snijder, H.H.B.
2017-01-01
In design against fatigue, a lower bound stress range vs. endurance curve (S-N curve) is employed to characterize fatigue resistance of plain material and structural details. With respect to the inherent variability of the fatigue life, the S-N curve is related to a certain probability of
Learning curves in health professions education.
Pusic, Martin V; Boutis, Kathy; Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A
2015-08-01
Learning curves, which graphically show the relationship between learning effort and achievement, are common in published education research but are not often used in day-to-day educational activities. The purpose of this article is to describe the generation and analysis of learning curves and their applicability to health professions education. The authors argue that the time is right for a closer look at using learning curves-given their desirable properties-to inform both self-directed instruction by individuals and education management by instructors.A typical learning curve is made up of a measure of learning (y-axis), a measure of effort (x-axis), and a mathematical linking function. At the individual level, learning curves make manifest a single person's progress towards competence including his/her rate of learning, the inflection point where learning becomes more effortful, and the remaining distance to mastery attainment. At the group level, overlaid learning curves show the full variation of a group of learners' paths through a given learning domain. Specifically, they make overt the difference between time-based and competency-based approaches to instruction. Additionally, instructors can use learning curve information to more accurately target educational resources to those who most require them.The learning curve approach requires a fine-grained collection of data that will not be possible in all educational settings; however, the increased use of an assessment paradigm that explicitly includes effort and its link to individual achievement could result in increased learner engagement and more effective instructional design.
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dobrowolski, Tomasz
2012-01-01
The constant curvature one and quasi-one dimensional Josephson junction is considered. On the base of Maxwell equations, the sine–Gordon equation that describes an influence of curvature on the kink motion was obtained. It is showed that the method of geometrical reduction of the sine–Gordon model from three to lower dimensional manifold leads to an identical form of the sine–Gordon equation. - Highlights: ► The research on dynamics of the phase in a curved Josephson junction is performed. ► The geometrical reduction is applied to the sine–Gordon model. ► The results of geometrical reduction and the fundamental research are compared.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Je Hyun Baekt
2000-01-01
Full Text Available A numerical study is conducted on the fully-developed laminar flow of an incompressible viscous fluid in a square duct rotating about a perpendicular axis to the axial direction of the duct. At the straight duct, the rotation produces vortices due to the Coriolis force. Generally two vortex cells are formed and the axial velocity distribution is distorted by the effect of this Coriolis force. When a convective force is weak, two counter-rotating vortices are shown with a quasi-parabolic axial velocity profile for weak rotation rates. As the rotation rate increases, the axial velocity on the vertical centreline of the duct begins to flatten and the location of vorticity center is moved near to wall by the effect of the Coriolis force. When the convective inertia force is strong, a double-vortex secondary flow appears in the transverse planes of the duct for weak rotation rates but as the speed of rotation increases the secondary flow is shown to split into an asymmetric configuration of four counter-rotating vortices. If the rotation rates are increased further, the secondary flow restabilizes to a slightly asymmetric double-vortex configuration. Also, a numerical study is conducted on the laminar flow of an incompressible viscous fluid in a 90°-bend square duct that rotates about axis parallel to the axial direction of the inlet. At a 90°-bend square duct, the feature of flow by the effect of a Coriolis force and a centrifugal force, namely a secondary flow by the centrifugal force in the curved region and the Coriolis force in the downstream region, is shown since the centrifugal force in curved region and the Coriolis force in downstream region are dominant respectively.
Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)
Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.
2011-01-01
More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential
Prediction and probability in sciences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.
1998-01-01
This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nahum, A.E.
1996-01-01
The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs
Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics
1996-08-01
The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.
Poisson Processes in Free Probability
An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu
2015-01-01
We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...
PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergey A. Cherkis
2007-03-01
Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.
Johnson, L. E.; Kim, J.; Cifelli, R.; Chandra, C. V.
2016-12-01
Potential water retention, S, is one of parameters commonly used in hydrologic modeling for soil moisture accounting. Physically, S indicates total amount of water which can be stored in soil and is expressed in units of depth. S can be represented as a change of soil moisture content and in this context is commonly used to estimate direct runoff, especially in the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method. Generally, the lumped and the distributed hydrologic models can easily use the SCS-CN method to estimate direct runoff. Changes in potential water retention have been used in previous SCS-CN studies; however, these studies have focused on long-term hydrologic simulations where S is allowed to vary at the daily time scale. While useful for hydrologic events that span multiple days, the resolution is too coarse for short-term applications such as flash flood events where S may not recover its full potential. In this study, a new method for estimating a time-variable potential water retention at hourly time-scales is presented. The methodology is applied for the Napa River basin, California. The streamflow gage at St Helena, located in the upper reaches of the basin, is used as the control gage site to evaluate the model performance as it is has minimal influences by reservoirs and diversions. Rainfall events from 2011 to 2012 are used for estimating the event-based SCS CN to transfer to S. As a result, we have derived the potential water retention curve and it is classified into three sections depending on the relative change in S. The first is a negative slope section arising from the difference in the rate of moving water through the soil column, the second is a zero change section representing the initial recovery the potential water retention, and the third is a positive change section representing the full recovery of the potential water retention. Also, we found that the soil water moving has traffic jam within 24 hours after finished first
Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Narayanan, R.S.
1991-10-01
We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)
Selected papers on analysis, probability, and statistics
Nomizu, Katsumi
1994-01-01
This book presents papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sugaku. The papers fall into the general area of mathematical analysis as it pertains to probability and statistics, dynamical systems, differential equations and analytic function theory. Among the topics discussed are: stochastic differential equations, spectra of the Laplacian and Schrödinger operators, nonlinear partial differential equations which generate dissipative dynamical systems, fractal analysis on self-similar sets and the global structure of analytic functions.
Multiwavelength light curve parameters of Cepheid variables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhardwaj Anupam
2017-01-01
Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of theoretical and observed light curves of Cepheid variables using Fourier decomposition. The theoretical light curves at multiple wavelengths are generated using stellar pulsation models for chemical compositions representative of Cepheids in the Galaxy and Magellanic Clouds. The observed light curves at optical (VI, near-infrared (JHKs and mid-infrared (3.6 & 4.5-μm bands are compiled from the literature. We discuss the variation of light curve parameters as a function of period, wavelength and metallicity. Theoretical and observed Fourier amplitude parameters decrease with increase in wavelength while the phase parameters increase with wavelength. We find that theoretical amplitude parameters obtained using canonical mass-luminosity levels exhibit a greater offset with respect to observations when compared to non-canonical relations. We also discuss the impact of variation in convective efficiency on the light curve structure of Cepheid variables. The increase in mixing length parameter results in a zero-point offset in bolometric mean magnitudes and reduces the systematic large difference in theoretical amplitudes with respect to observations.
Analytical flow duration curves for summer streamflow in Switzerland
Santos, Ana Clara; Portela, Maria Manuela; Rinaldo, Andrea; Schaefli, Bettina
2018-04-01
This paper proposes a systematic assessment of the performance of an analytical modeling framework for streamflow probability distributions for a set of 25 Swiss catchments. These catchments show a wide range of hydroclimatic regimes, including namely snow-influenced streamflows. The model parameters are calculated from a spatially averaged gridded daily precipitation data set and from observed daily discharge time series, both in a forward estimation mode (direct parameter calculation from observed data) and in an inverse estimation mode (maximum likelihood estimation). The performance of the linear and the nonlinear model versions is assessed in terms of reproducing observed flow duration curves and their natural variability. Overall, the nonlinear model version outperforms the linear model for all regimes, but the linear model shows a notable performance increase with catchment elevation. More importantly, the obtained results demonstrate that the analytical model performs well for summer discharge for all analyzed streamflow regimes, ranging from rainfall-driven regimes with summer low flow to snow and glacier regimes with summer high flow. These results suggest that the model's encoding of discharge-generating events based on stochastic soil moisture dynamics is more flexible than previously thought. As shown in this paper, the presence of snowmelt or ice melt is accommodated by a relative increase in the discharge-generating frequency, a key parameter of the model. Explicit quantification of this frequency increase as a function of mean catchment meteorological conditions is left for future research.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Araujo, M.T.F.; Lopes, R.T.; Poledna, R.; Delgado, J.U.; Almeida, M.C.M. de; Silva, R.L.
2015-01-01
The 123 I is widely used in radiodiagnostic procedures in nuclear medicine. According to Pharmacopoeia care should be taken during its production process, since radionuclidic impurities may be generated. The 121 Te is an impurity that arises during the 123 I production and determining their gamma emission probabilities (Pγ) is important in order to obtain more information about its decay. Activities were also obtained by absolute standardization using the sum-peak method and these values were compared to the efficiency curve method. (author)
Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko
2017-01-01
Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Introduction to probability with Mathematica
Hastings, Kevin J
2009-01-01
Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...
On the universality of knot probability ratios
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Janse van Rensburg, E J [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 (Canada); Rechnitzer, A, E-mail: rensburg@yorku.ca, E-mail: andrewr@math.ubc.ca [Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, 1984 Mathematics Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 (Canada)
2011-04-22
Let p{sub n} denote the number of self-avoiding polygons of length n on a regular three-dimensional lattice, and let p{sub n}(K) be the number which have knot type K. The probability that a random polygon of length n has knot type K is p{sub n}(K)/p{sub n} and is known to decay exponentially with length (Sumners and Whittington 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 21 1689-94, Pippenger 1989 Discrete Appl. Math. 25 273-8). Little is known rigorously about the asymptotics of p{sub n}(K), but there is substantial numerical evidence. It is believed that the entropic exponent, {alpha}, is universal, while the exponential growth rate is independent of the knot type but varies with the lattice. The amplitude, C{sub K}, depends on both the lattice and the knot type. The above asymptotic form implies that the relative probability of a random polygon of length n having prime knot type K over prime knot type L. In the thermodynamic limit this probability ratio becomes an amplitude ratio; it should be universal and depend only on the knot types K and L. In this communication we examine the universality of these probability ratios for polygons in the simple cubic, face-centred cubic and body-centred cubic lattices. Our results support the hypothesis that these are universal quantities. For example, we estimate that a long random polygon is approximately 28 times more likely to be a trefoil than be a figure-eight, independent of the underlying lattice, giving an estimate of the intrinsic entropy associated with knot types in closed curves. (fast track communication)
Spherical images and inextensible curved folding
Seffen, Keith A.
2018-02-01
In their study, Duncan and Duncan [Proc. R. Soc. London A 383, 191 (1982), 10.1098/rspa.1982.0126] calculate the shape of an inextensible surface folded in two about a general curve. They find the analytical relationships between pairs of generators linked across the fold curve, the shape of the original path, and the fold angle variation along it. They present two special cases of generator layouts for which the fold angle is uniform or the folded curve remains planar, for simplifying practical folding in sheet-metal processes. We verify their special cases by a graphical treatment according to a method of Gauss. We replace the fold curve by a piecewise linear path, which connects vertices of intersecting pairs of hinge lines. Inspired by the d-cone analysis by Farmer and Calladine [Int. J. Mech. Sci. 47, 509 (2005), 10.1016/j.ijmecsci.2005.02.013], we construct the spherical images for developable folding of successive vertices: the operating conditions of the special cases in Duncan and Duncan are then revealed straightforwardly by the geometric relationships between the images. Our approach may be used to synthesize folding patterns for novel deployable and shape-changing surfaces without need of complex calculation.
Linear positivity and virtual probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartle, James B.
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics
Calculation of cranial nerve complication probability for acoustic neuroma radiosurgery
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meeks, Sanford L.; Buatti, John M.; Foote, Kelly D.; Friedman, William A.; Bova, Francis J.
2000-01-01
Purpose: Estimations of complications from stereotactic radiosurgery usually rely simply on dose-volume or dose-diameter isoeffect curves. Due to the sparse clinical data available, these curves have typically not considered the target location in the brain, target histology, or treatment plan conformality as parameters in the calculation. In this study, a predictive model was generated to estimate the probability of cranial neuropathies as a result of acoustic schwannoma radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: The dose-volume histogram reduction scheme was used to calculate the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) from brainstem dose-volume histograms. The model's fitting parameters were optimized to provide the best fit to the observed complication data for acoustic neuroma patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the University of Florida. The calculation was then applied to the remainder of the patients in the database. Results: The best fit to our clinical data was obtained using n = 0.04, m = 0.15, and no. alphano. /no. betano. = 2.1 Gy -1 . Although the fitting parameter m is relatively consistent with ranges found in the literature, both the volume parameter, n, and no. alphano. /no. betano. are much smaller than the values quoted in the literature. The fit to our clinical data indicates that brainstem, or possibly a specific portion of the brainstem, is more radiosensitive than the parameters in the literature indicate, and that there is very little volume effect; in other words, irradiation of a small fraction of the brainstem yields NTCPs that are nearly as high as those calculated for entire volume irradiation. These new fitting parameters are specific to acoustic neuroma radiosurgery, and the small volume effect that we observe may be an artifact of the fixed relationship of acoustic tumors to specific regions of the brainstem. Applying the model to our patient database, we calculate an average NTCP of 7.2% for patients who had no
IDF-curves for precipitation In Belgium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohymont, Bernard; Demarde, Gaston R.
2004-01-01
The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation constitute a relationship between the intensity, the duration and the frequency of rainfall amounts. The intensity of precipitation is expressed in mm/h, the duration or aggregation time is the length of the interval considered while the frequency stands for the probability of occurrence of the event. IDF-curves constitute a classical and useful tool that is primarily used to dimension hydraulic structures in general, as e.g., sewer systems and which are consequently used to assess the risk of inundation. In this presentation, the IDF relation for precipitation is studied for different locations in Belgium. These locations correspond to two long-term, high-quality precipitation networks of the RMIB: (a) the daily precipitation depths of the climatological network (more than 200 stations, 1951-2001 baseline period); (b) the high-frequency 10-minutes precipitation depths of the hydro meteorological network (more than 30 stations, 15 to 33 years baseline period). For the station of Uccle, an uninterrupted time-series of more than one hundred years of 10-minutes rainfall data is available. The proposed technique for assessing the curves is based on maximum annual values of precipitation. A new analytical formula for the IDF-curves was developed such that these curves stay valid for aggregation times ranging from 10 minutes to 30 days (when fitted with appropriate data). Moreover, all parameters of this formula have physical dimensions. Finally, adequate spatial interpolation techniques are used to provide nationwide extreme values precipitation depths for short- to long-term durations With a given return period. These values are estimated on the grid points of the Belgian ALADIN-domain used in the operational weather forecasts at the RMIB.(Author)
Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines
Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.
2011-01-01
Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grandy, W. T. Jr.
2009-01-01
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes
Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Alvaro
2014-01-01
Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival probability for a given branching process ruled by a probability distribution of the number of offspring per element whose standard deviation is finite, obtaining the exact scaling function as well as the critical exponents. Our findings prove the universal behavi...
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guyot Patricia
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. Methods We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. Results The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. Conclusion The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.
Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J
2012-02-01
The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Sadek, Mohammad
2010-01-01
In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...
Logic, probability, and human reasoning.
Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P
2015-04-01
This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Acacio de Barros, J.
2012-01-01
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Joint probabilities and quantum cognition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)
2012-12-18
In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
The Probabilities of Unique Events
2012-08-30
Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the
Probability Matching, Fast and Slow
Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2014-01-01
A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...
Variability of the Wind Turbine Power Curve
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahesh M. Bandi
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Wind turbine power curves are calibrated by turbine manufacturers under requirements stipulated by the International Electrotechnical Commission to provide a functional mapping between the mean wind speed v ¯ and the mean turbine power output P ¯ . Wind plant operators employ these power curves to estimate or forecast wind power generation under given wind conditions. However, it is general knowledge that wide variability exists in these mean calibration values. We first analyse how the standard deviation in wind speed σ v affects the mean P ¯ and the standard deviation σ P of wind power. We find that the magnitude of wind power fluctuations scales as the square of the mean wind speed. Using data from three planetary locations, we find that the wind speed standard deviation σ v systematically varies with mean wind speed v ¯ , and in some instances, follows a scaling of the form σ v = C × v ¯ α ; C being a constant and α a fractional power. We show that, when applicable, this scaling form provides a minimal parameter description of the power curve in terms of v ¯ alone. Wind data from different locations establishes that (in instances when this scaling exists the exponent α varies with location, owing to the influence of local environmental conditions on wind speed variability. Since manufacturer-calibrated power curves cannot account for variability influenced by local conditions, this variability translates to forecast uncertainty in power generation. We close with a proposal for operators to perform post-installation recalibration of their turbine power curves to account for the influence of local environmental factors on wind speed variability in order to reduce the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. Understanding the relationship between wind’s speed and its variability is likely to lead to lower costs for the integration of wind power into the electric grid.
Projection of curves on B-spline surfaces using quadratic reparameterization
Yang, Yijun; Zeng, Wei; Zhang, Hui; Yong, Junhai; Paul, Jean Claude
2010-01-01
Curves on surfaces play an important role in computer aided geometric design. In this paper, we present a hyperbola approximation method based on the quadratic reparameterization of Bézier surfaces, which generates reasonable low degree curves lying
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoff, Gabriela; Fischer, Andreia Caroline Fischer da Silveira; Accurso, Andre, E-mail: andreia.silveira.001@acad.pucrs.b, E-mail: andre.accurso@acad.pucrs.b [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUC/RS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Grupo de Experimentacao e Simulacacao Computacional em Fisica Medica; Andrade, Jose Rodrigo Mendes, E-mail: jose.andrade@santacasa.tche.b [Irmandade da Santa Casa de Misericordia de Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Servico de Atencao a Saude e Qualidade de Vida; Bacelar, Alexandre, E-mail: abacelar@hcpa.ufrgs.b [Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Setor de Fisica Medica e Radioprotecao
2011-10-26
This paper intended to measure iso expositions curves in areas of mobile equipment use. It was selected: a Shimadzu mobile equipment and two Siemens equipment, being used a non-anthropomorphic scatterer. The exposure measurements in mesh of 4.20 x 4.20 cubic centimeters, at a half-height of the simulator and steps of 30 cm, were used by using the radiographic techniques: 100 k Vp and 63 m As (Shimadzu) and 96 k Vp and 40 m As (Siemens). For estimation of environmental equivalent dose, during 12 months, were considered: 3.55 m As/examination and 44.5 procedures/month (adults): and 3.16 m As/examination and 20.1 procedures/month (pediatrics). It was observed that only the values in the distance of 60 cm presented over the maximum limit of environment equivalent dose defined for Free Area (0.5 mSv/year). The points collected at 2.1 m from the primary beam center, have shown to be always 12% of referred limit, shown to be a safe distance for the hospitalized patients
The Probable Ages of Asteroid Families
Harris, A. W.
1993-01-01
There has been considerable debate recently over the ages of the Hirayama families, and in particular if some of the families are very oung(u) It is a straightforward task to estimate the characteristic time of a collision between a body of a given diameter, d_o, by another body of diameter greater of equal to d_1. What is less straightforward is to estimate the critical diameter ratio, d_1/d_o, above which catastrophic disruption occurs, from which one could infer probable ages of the Hirayama families, by knowing the diameter of the parent body, d_o. One can gain some insight into the probable value of d_1/d_o, and of the likely ages of existing families, from the plot below. I have computed the characteristic time between collisions in the asteroid belt of a size ratio greater of equal to d_1/d_o, for 4 sizes of target asteroids, d_o. The solid curves to the lower right are the characteristic times for a single object...
Influence of pavement condition on horizontal curve safety.
Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Banerjee, Ambarish; Prozzi, Jorge A
2013-03-01
Crash statistics suggest that horizontal curves are the most vulnerable sites for crash occurrence. These crashes are often severe and many involve at least some level of injury due to the nature of the collisions. Ensuring the desired pavement surface condition is one potentially effective strategy to reduce the occurrence of severe accidents on horizontal curves. This study sought to develop crash injury severity models by integrating crash and pavement surface condition databases. It focuses on developing a causal relationship between pavement condition indices and severity level of crashes occurring on two-lane horizontal curves in Texas. In addition, it examines the suitability of the existing Skid Index for safety maintenance of two-lane curves. Significant correlation is evident between pavement condition and crash injury severity on two-lane undivided horizontal curves in Texas. Probability of a crash becoming fatal is appreciably sensitive to certain pavement indices. Data suggested that road facilities providing a smoother and more comfortable ride are vulnerable to severe crashes on horizontal curves. In addition, the study found that longitudinal skid measurement barely correlates with injury severity of crashes occurring on curved portions. The study recommends exploring the option of incorporating lateral friction measurement into Pavement Management System (PMS) databases specifically at curved road segments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
The shape of the melting curve and phase transitions in the liquid state
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yahel, Eyal
2014-01-01
The phase diagram of elemental liquids has been found to be surprisingly rich, including variations in the melting curve and transitions in the liquid phase. The effect of these transitions on the shape of the melting curve is reviewed and analyzed. First-order phase transitions intersecting the melting curve imply piecewise continuous melting curves, with solid-solid transitions generating upward kinks or minima and liquid-liquid transitions generating downward kinks or maxima
Quantum fields in curved space
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Birrell, N.D.; Davies, P.C.W.
1982-01-01
The book presents a comprehensive review of the subject of gravitational effects in quantum field theory. Quantum field theory in Minkowski space, quantum field theory in curved spacetime, flat spacetime examples, curved spacetime examples, stress-tensor renormalization, applications of renormalization techniques, quantum black holes and interacting fields are all discussed in detail. (U.K.)
Linear dose response curves in fungi and tradescantia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unrau, P.
1999-07-01
heterozygosity (LOH) events occur because Clone 02 repairs both DSB and LCD by recombination. Clone 02 has a linear dose response for high LET radiation. Starting from the same initial yieId frequency, wild-types have a sublinear response. The sublinear response reflects a smoothly decreasing probability that 'pinks' are generated as a function of increasing high LET dose for wild-type but not Clone 02. This smoothly decreasing response would be expected for LOH in 'wild-type' humans. It reflects an increasing proportion of DNA damage being repaired by non-recombinational pathways and/or an increasing probability of cell death with increasing dose. Clone 02 at low doses and low dose rates of low LET radiation has a linear dose response, reflecting a 1/16 probability of a lesion leading to LOH, relative to high LET lesions. This differential is held to reflect: microdosimetric differences in energy deposition and, therefore, DNA damage by low and high LET radiations; the effects of lesion clustering after high LET on the probability of generating the end wild-types. While no observations have been made at very low doses and dose rates in wild-types, there is no reason to suppose that the low LET linear non-threshold dose response of Clone 02 is abnormal. The importance of the LOH somatic genetic end-point is that it reflects cancer risk in humans. The linear non-threshold low dose low LET response curves reflects either the probability that recombinational Holliday junctions are occasionally cleaved in a rare orientation to generate LOH, or the probability that low LET lesions include a small proportion of clustered events similar to high LET ionization or both. Calculations of the Poisson probability that two or more low LET lesions will be induced in the same target suggest that dose rate effects depend upon the coincidence of DNA lesions in the same target, and that the probability of LOH depends upon lesion and repair factors. But the slope of LOH in Clone 02 and all other
Extended analysis of cooling curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.
2002-01-01
Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)
Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty
Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.
2016-01-01
While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huang, Wei Ming; Lee, Grace W.M. [Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University, 71, Chou-Shan Road, Taipei 106 (China); Wu, Chih Cheng [Energy and Air Pollution Control Section, New Materials R and D Department, China Steel Corporation, 1, Chung-Kang Road, Siaogang District, Kaohsiung 81233 (China)
2008-01-15
The Kyoto Protocol attempts through political negotiations to guide participating industrialized countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a positive growing trend, to reach a peak point (or turning point), and then be reduced to a negative growth. That means the relationship between decreasing GHG emissions and economic growth may be described by an inverted-U curve (or called a bell-shaped curve), which is consistent with the concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. This research observed that the economic development and GHG emissions in Economies in Transition (EITs) exhibit a hockey-stick curve trend (or called quasi-L-shape curve), that also generates a lot of 'hot air' which is significant to the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, through the analysis of single-country time series data and GDP data, this research demonstrated that statistical data for most of the Annex II countries do not possess evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for GHG emissions. The results from this study also indicated that the 38 industrialized countries are unable to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol within the specified time period, which are probably caused by the econometric method's inability to predict accurately the extents and development of innovative technologies and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. If the international community truly wants to reduce the GHG emissions, the effectiveness of the existing international framework for emissions reduction needs to be reconsidered seriously, and the global cooperation mechanism also needs to be greatly enhanced. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Huang Weiming [Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University, 71, Chou-Shan Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Lee, Grace W.M. [Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University, 71, Chou-Shan Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: gracelee@ntu.edu.tw; Wu Chihcheng [Energy and Air Pollution Control Section, New Materials R and D Department, China Steel Corporation, 1, Chung-Kang Road, Siaogang District, Kaohsiung 81233, Taiwan (China)
2008-01-15
The Kyoto Protocol attempts through political negotiations to guide participating industrialized countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a positive growing trend, to reach a peak point (or turning point), and then be reduced to a negative growth. That means the relationship between decreasing GHG emissions and economic growth may be described by an inverted-U curve (or called a bell-shaped curve), which is consistent with the concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. This research observed that the economic development and GHG emissions in Economies in Transition (EITs) exhibit a hockey-stick curve trend (or called quasi-L-shape curve), that also generates a lot of 'hot air' which is significant to the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, through the analysis of single-country time series data and GDP data, this research demonstrated that statistical data for most of the Annex II countries do not possess evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for GHG emissions. The results from this study also indicated that the 38 industrialized countries are unable to meet their targets under the Kyoto Protocol within the specified time period, which are probably caused by the econometric method's inability to predict accurately the extents and development of innovative technologies and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. If the international community truly wants to reduce the GHG emissions, the effectiveness of the existing international framework for emissions reduction needs to be reconsidered seriously, and the global cooperation mechanism also needs to be greatly enhanced.
134Cs emission probabilities determination by gamma spectrometry
de Almeida, M. C. M.; Poledna, R.; Delgado, J. U.; Silva, R. L.; Araujo, M. T. F.; da Silva, C. J.
2018-03-01
The National Laboratory for Ionizing Radiation Metrology (LNMRI/IRD/CNEN) of Rio de Janeiro performed primary and secondary standardization of different radionuclides reaching satisfactory uncertainties. A solution of 134Cs radionuclide was purchased from commercial supplier to emission probabilities determination of some of its energies. 134Cs is a beta gamma emitter with 754 days of half-life. This radionuclide is used as standard in environmental, water and food control. It is also important to germanium detector calibration. The gamma emission probabilities (Pγ) were determined mainly for some energies of the 134Cs by efficiency curve method and the Pγ absolute uncertainties obtained were below 1% (k=1).
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich
2012-10-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.
Approximation methods in probability theory
Čekanavičius, Vydas
2016-01-01
This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.
Experiments with conjugate gradient algorithms for homotopy curve tracking
Irani, Kashmira M.; Ribbens, Calvin J.; Watson, Layne T.; Kamat, Manohar P.; Walker, Homer F.
1991-01-01
There are algorithms for finding zeros or fixed points of nonlinear systems of equations that are globally convergent for almost all starting points, i.e., with probability one. The essence of all such algorithms is the construction of an appropriate homotopy map and then tracking some smooth curve in the zero set of this homotopy map. HOMPACK is a mathematical software package implementing globally convergent homotopy algorithms with three different techniques for tracking a homotopy zero curve, and has separate routines for dense and sparse Jacobian matrices. The HOMPACK algorithms for sparse Jacobian matrices use a preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm for the computation of the kernel of the homotopy Jacobian matrix, a required linear algebra step for homotopy curve tracking. Here, variants of the conjugate gradient algorithm are implemented in the context of homotopy curve tracking and compared with Craig's preconditioned conjugate gradient method used in HOMPACK. The test problems used include actual large scale, sparse structural mechanics problems.
Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winkler, R.L.
1994-01-01
Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Statistical probability tables CALENDF program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ribon, P.
1989-01-01
The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...
Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME K{sub IC} and K{sub IR} fracture toughness reference curves
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R. [Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus, Espoo (Finland)
1998-11-01
Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the `Master curve`, has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K{sub IC}-reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K{sub IR}-reference curve. (orig.)
Computational aspects of algebraic curves
Shaska, Tanush
2005-01-01
The development of new computational techniques and better computing power has made it possible to attack some classical problems of algebraic geometry. The main goal of this book is to highlight such computational techniques related to algebraic curves. The area of research in algebraic curves is receiving more interest not only from the mathematics community, but also from engineers and computer scientists, because of the importance of algebraic curves in applications including cryptography, coding theory, error-correcting codes, digital imaging, computer vision, and many more.This book cove
APPROXIMATION OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN QUEUEING MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. I. Aliev
2013-03-01
Full Text Available For probability distributions with variation coefficient, not equal to unity, mathematical dependences for approximating distributions on the basis of first two moments are derived by making use of multi exponential distributions. It is proposed to approximate distributions with coefficient of variation less than unity by using hypoexponential distribution, which makes it possible to generate random variables with coefficient of variation, taking any value in a range (0; 1, as opposed to Erlang distribution, having only discrete values of coefficient of variation.
Supervised detection of anomalous light curves in massive astronomical catalogs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos; Kim, Dae-Won
2014-01-01
The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known
Supervised Detection of Anomalous Light Curves in Massive Astronomical Catalogs
Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos; Kim, Dae-Won
2014-09-01
The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known
Left passage probability of Schramm-Loewner Evolution
Najafi, M. N.
2013-06-01
SLE(κ,ρ⃗) is a variant of Schramm-Loewner Evolution (SLE) which describes the curves which are not conformal invariant, but are self-similar due to the presence of some other preferred points on the boundary. In this paper we study the left passage probability (LPP) of SLE(κ,ρ⃗) through field theoretical framework and find the differential equation governing this probability. This equation is numerically solved for the special case κ=2 and hρ=0 in which hρ is the conformal weight of the boundary changing (bcc) operator. It may be referred to loop erased random walk (LERW) and Abelian sandpile model (ASM) with a sink on its boundary. For the curve which starts from ξ0 and conditioned by a change of boundary conditions at x0, we find that this probability depends significantly on the factor x0-ξ0. We also present the perturbative general solution for large x0. As a prototype, we apply this formalism to SLE(κ,κ-6) which governs the curves that start from and end on the real axis.
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
2015-10-01
The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.
Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.
Pfeiffer, Paul E.
This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…
Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards
Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe
2016-01-01
Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…
GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics
Field, Mike
2012-01-01
It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…
Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slunga, R.
1979-03-01
A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)
DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas
2015-01-01
A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...
Probability and statistics: A reminder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clement, B.
2013-01-01
The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)
Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1998-01-01
We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...
On probability-possibility transformations
Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad
1992-01-01
Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.
Ruin probabilities for a regenerative Poisson gap generated risk process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Biard, Romain
A risk process with constant premium rate c and Poisson arrivals of claims is considered. A threshold r is deﬁned for claim interarrival times, such that if k consecutive interarrival times are larger than r, then the next claim has distribution G. Otherwise, the claim size distribution is F...
Demand and choice probability generating functions for perturbed consumers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2011-01-01
This paper considers demand systems for utility-maximizing consumers equipped with additive linearly perturbed utility of the form U(x)+m⋅x and faced with general budget constraints x 2 B. Given compact budget sets, the paper provides necessary as well as sufficient conditions for a demand genera...
51Cr - erythrocyte survival curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paiva Costa, J. de.
1982-07-01
Sixteen patients were studied, being fifteen patients in hemolytic state, and a normal individual as a witness. The aim was to obtain better techniques for the analysis of the erythrocytes, survival curves, according to the recommendations of the International Committee of Hematology. It was used the radiochromatic method as a tracer. Previously a revisional study of the International Literature was made in its aspects inherent to the work in execution, rendering possible to establish comparisons and clarify phonomena observed in cur investigation. Several parameters were considered in this study, hindering both the exponential and the linear curves. The analysis of the survival curves of the erythrocytes in the studied group, revealed that the elution factor did not present a homogeneous answer quantitatively to all, though, the result of the analysis of these curves have been established, through listed programs in the electronic calculator. (Author) [pt
Melting curves of gammairradiated DNA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hofer, H.; Altmann, H.; Kehrer, M.
1978-08-01
Melting curves of gammairradiated DNA and data derived of them, are reported. The diminished stability is explained by basedestruction. DNA denatures completely at room temperature, if at least every fifth basepair is broken or weakened by irradiation. (author)
Management of the learning curve
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Peter-Christian; Slepniov, Dmitrij
2016-01-01
Purpose – This paper focuses on the management of the learning curve in overseas capacity expansions. The purpose of this paper is to unravel the direct as well as indirect influences on the learning curve and to advance the understanding of how these affect its management. Design...... the dimensions of the learning process involved in a capacity expansion project and identified the direct and indirect labour influences on the production learning curve. On this basis, the study proposes solutions to managing learning curves in overseas capacity expansions. Furthermore, the paper concludes...... with measures that have the potential to significantly reduce the non-value-added time when establishing new capacities overseas. Originality/value – The paper uses a longitudinal in-depth case study of a Danish wind turbine manufacturer and goes beyond a simplistic treatment of the lead time and learning...
Growth curves for Laron syndrome.
Laron, Z; Lilos, P; Klinger, B
1993-01-01
Growth curves for children with Laron syndrome were constructed on the basis of repeated measurements made throughout infancy, childhood, and puberty in 24 (10 boys, 14 girls) of the 41 patients with this syndrome investigated in our clinic. Growth retardation was already noted at birth, the birth length ranging from 42 to 46 cm in the 12/20 available measurements. The postnatal growth curves deviated sharply from the normal from infancy on. Both sexes showed no clear pubertal spurt. Girls co...
Flow over riblet curved surfaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Loureiro, J B R; Freire, A P Silva, E-mail: atila@mecanica.ufrj.br [Mechanical Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), C.P. 68503, 21.941-972, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
2011-12-22
The present work studies the mechanics of turbulent drag reduction over curved surfaces by riblets. The effects of surface modification on flow separation over steep and smooth curved surfaces are investigated. Four types of two-dimensional surfaces are studied based on the morphometric parameters that describe the body of a blue whale. Local measurements of mean velocity and turbulence profiles are obtained through laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) and particle image velocimetry (PIV).
Failure probability analysis on mercury target vessel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishikura, Syuichi; Futakawa, Masatoshi; Kogawa, Hiroyuki; Sato, Hiroshi; Haga, Katsuhiro; Ikeda, Yujiro
2005-03-01
Failure probability analysis was carried out to estimate the lifetime of the mercury target which will be installed into the JSNS (Japan spallation neutron source) in J-PARC (Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex). The lifetime was estimated as taking loading condition and materials degradation into account. Considered loads imposed on the target vessel were the static stresses due to thermal expansion and static pre-pressure on He-gas and mercury and the dynamic stresses due to the thermally shocked pressure waves generated repeatedly at 25 Hz. Materials used in target vessel will be degraded by the fatigue, neutron and proton irradiation, mercury immersion and pitting damages, etc. The imposed stresses were evaluated through static and dynamic structural analyses. The material-degradations were deduced based on published experimental data. As a result, it was quantitatively confirmed that the failure probability for the lifetime expected in the design is very much lower, 10 -11 in the safety hull, meaning that it will be hardly failed during the design lifetime. On the other hand, the beam window of mercury vessel suffered with high-pressure waves exhibits the failure probability of 12%. It was concluded, therefore, that the leaked mercury from the failed area at the beam window is adequately kept in the space between the safety hull and the mercury vessel by using mercury-leakage sensors. (author)
Probability and containment of turbine missiles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yeh, G.C.K.
1976-01-01
With the trend toward ever larger power generating plants with large high-speed turbines, an important plant design consideration is the potential for and consequences of mechanical failure of turbine rotors. Such rotor failure could result in high-velocity disc fragments (turbine missiles) perforating the turbine casing and jeopardizing vital plant systems. The designer must first estimate the probability of any turbine missile damaging any safety-related plant component for his turbine and his plant arrangement. If the probability is not low enough to be acceptable to the regulatory agency, he must design a shield to contain the postulated turbine missiles. Alternatively, the shield could be designed to retard (to reduce the velocity of) the missiles such that they would not damage any vital plant system. In this paper, some of the presently available references that can be used to evaluate the probability, containment and retardation of turbine missiles are reviewed; various alternative methods are compared; and subjects for future research are recommended. (Auth.)
Modular forms and special cycles on Shimura curves (AM-161)
Kudla, Stephen S; Yang, Tonghai
2006-01-01
Modular Forms and Special Cycles on Shimura Curves is a thorough study of the generating functions constructed from special cycles, both divisors and zero-cycles, on the arithmetic surface ""M"" attached to a Shimura curve ""M"" over the field of rational numbers. These generating functions are shown to be the q-expansions of modular forms and Siegel modular forms of genus two respectively, valued in the Gillet-Soulé arithmetic Chow groups of ""M"". The two types of generating functions are related via an arithmetic inner product formula. In addition, an analogue of the classical Siegel-Weil
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haverkamp, U.; Wiezorek, C.; Poetter, R.
1990-01-01
Lyoluminescence dosimetry is based upon light emission during dissolution of previously irradiated dosimetric materials. The lyoluminescence signal is expressed in the dissolution glow curve. These curves begin, depending on the dissolution system, with a high peak followed by an exponentially decreasing intensity. System parameters that influence the graph of the dissolution glow curve, are, for example, injection speed, temperature and pH value of the solution and the design of the dissolution cell. The initial peak does not significantly correlate with the absorbed dose, it is mainly an effect of the injection. The decay of the curve consists of two exponential components: one fast and one slow. The components depend on the absorbed dose and the dosimetric materials used. In particular, the slow component correlates with the absorbed dose. In contrast to the fast component the argument of the exponential function of the slow component is independent of the dosimetric materials investigated: trehalose, glucose and mannitol. The maximum value, following the peak of the curve, and the integral light output are a measure of the absorbed dose. The reason for the different light outputs of various dosimetric materials after irradiation with the same dose is the differing solubility. The character of the dissolution glow curves is the same following irradiation with photons, electrons or neutrons. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)
2011-10-01
Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer
2011-01-01
Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra
Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer
2011-10-01
Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra
Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.
Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M
2014-12-01
In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.
FUZZY ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING AND CHARACTERISTIC CURVES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ebru Turano?lu
2012-02-01
Full Text Available Acceptance sampling is primarily used for the inspection of incoming or outgoing lots. Acceptance sampling refers to the application of specific sampling plans to a designated lot or sequence of lots. The parameters of acceptance sampling plans are sample sizes and acceptance numbers. In some cases, it may not be possible to define acceptance sampling parameters as crisp values. These parameters can be expressed by linguistic variables. The fuzzy set theory can be successfully used to cope with the vagueness in these linguistic expressions for acceptance sampling. In this paper, the main distributions of acceptance sampling plans are handled with fuzzy parameters and their acceptance probability functions are derived. Then the characteristic curves of acceptance sampling are examined under fuzziness. Illustrative examples are given.
Synthesization of the Ar VIII 3s-3p beam-foil decay curve
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindgaard, A.; Veje, E.
1981-01-01
The beam-foil decay curve for the 3s-3p transition in Ar VIII has been simulated from experimentally determined relative initial level populations and transition probabilities calculated in the numerical Coulomb approximation. Good agreement is observed between simulated and measured decay curves. A discussion of the simulation is given. (Auth.)
Large deviations and idempotent probability
Puhalskii, Anatolii
2001-01-01
In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Probability as a Physical Motive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Martin
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (Ã¢Â€ÂœMEPÃ¢Â€Â to the information-theoreticalÃ¢Â€ÂœMaxEntÃ¢Â€Â principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand Ã¢Â€Âœthe adjacentpossibleÃ¢Â€Â as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.
Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning
2015-01-01
accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Probability matching and strategy availability
J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
2010-01-01
Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...
Parameter Deduction and Accuracy Analysis of Track Beam Curves in Straddle-type Monorail Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaobo Zhao
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The accuracy of the bottom curve of a PC track beam is strongly related to the production quality of the entire beam. Many factors may affect the parameters of the bottom curve, such as the superelevation of the curve and the deformation of a PC track beam. At present, no effective method has been developed to determine the bottom curve of a PC track beam; therefore, a new technique is presented in this paper to deduce the parameters of such a curve and to control the accuracy of the computation results. First, the domain of the bottom curve of a PC track beam is assumed to be a spindle plane. Then, the corresponding supposed top curve domain is determined based on a geometrical relationship that is the opposite of that identified by the conventional method. Second, several optimal points are selected from the supposed top curve domain according to the dichotomy algorithm; the supposed top curve is thus generated by connecting these points. Finally, one rigorous criterion is established in the fractal dimension to assess the accuracy of the assumed top curve deduced in the previous step. If this supposed curve coincides completely with the known top curve, then the assumed bottom curve corresponding to the assumed top curve is considered to be the real bottom curve. This technique of determining the bottom curve of a PC track beam is thus proven to be efficient and accurate.
Semantic and associative factors in probability learning with words.
Schipper, L M; Hanson, B L; Taylor, G; Thorpe, J A
1973-09-01
Using a probability-learning technique with a single word as the cue and with the probability of a given event following this word fixed at .80, it was found (1) that neither high nor low associates to the original word and (2) that neither synonyms nor antonyms showed differential learning curves subsequent to original learning when the probability for the following event was shifted to .20. In a second study when feedback, in the form of knowledge of results, was withheld, there was a clear-cut similarity of predictions to the originally trained word and the synonyms of both high and low association value and a dissimilarity of these words to a set of antonyms of both high and low association value. Two additional studies confirmed the importance of the semantic dimension as compared with association value as traditionally measured.
Failure probability of PWR reactor coolant loop piping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lo, T.; Woo, H.H.; Holman, G.S.; Chou, C.K.
1984-02-01
This paper describes the results of assessments performed on the PWR coolant loop piping of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering plants. For direct double-ended guillotine break (DEGB), consideration was given to crack existence probability, initial crack size distribution, hydrostatic proof test, preservice inspection, leak detection probability, crack growth characteristics, and failure criteria based on the net section stress failure and tearing modulus stability concept. For indirect DEGB, fragilities of major component supports were estimated. The system level fragility was then calculated based on the Boolean expression involving these fragilities. Indirect DEGB due to seismic effects was calculated by convolving the system level fragility and the seismic hazard curve. The results indicate that the probability of occurrence of both direct and indirect DEGB is extremely small, thus, postulation of DEGB in design should be eliminated and replaced by more realistic criteria
Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Florentin ŞPERLEA
2010-06-01
Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document
Shape optimization of self-avoiding curves
Walker, Shawn W.
2016-04-01
This paper presents a softened notion of proximity (or self-avoidance) for curves. We then derive a sensitivity result, based on shape differential calculus, for the proximity. This is combined with a gradient-based optimization approach to compute three-dimensional, parameterized curves that minimize the sum of an elastic (bending) energy and a proximity energy that maintains self-avoidance by a penalization technique. Minimizers are computed by a sequential-quadratic-programming (SQP) method where the bending energy and proximity energy are approximated by a finite element method. We then apply this method to two problems. First, we simulate adsorbed polymer strands that are constrained to be bound to a surface and be (locally) inextensible. This is a basic model of semi-flexible polymers adsorbed onto a surface (a current topic in material science). Several examples of minimizing curve shapes on a variety of surfaces are shown. An advantage of the method is that it can be much faster than using molecular dynamics for simulating polymer strands on surfaces. Second, we apply our proximity penalization to the computation of ideal knots. We present a heuristic scheme, utilizing the SQP method above, for minimizing rope-length and apply it in the case of the trefoil knot. Applications of this method could be for generating good initial guesses to a more accurate (but expensive) knot-tightening algorithm.
INVESTIGATION OF CURVES SET BY CUBIC DISTRIBUTION OF CURVATURE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. A. Ustenko
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Purpose. Further development of the geometric modeling of curvelinear contours of different objects based on the specified cubic curvature distribution and setpoints of curvature in the boundary points. Methodology. We investigate the flat section of the curvilinear contour generating under condition that cubic curvature distribution is set. Curve begins and ends at the given points, where angles of tangent slope and curvature are also determined. It was obtained the curvature equation of this curve, depending on the section length and coefficient c of cubic curvature distribution. The analysis of obtained equation was carried out. As well as, it was investigated the conditions, in which the inflection points of the curve are appearing. One should find such an interval of parameter change (depending on the input data and the section length, in order to place the inflection point of the curvature graph outside the curve section borders. It was determined the dependence of tangent slope of angle to the curve at its arbitrary point, as well as it was given the recommendations to solve a system of integral equations that allow finding the length of the curve section and the coefficient c of curvature cubic distribution. Findings. As the result of curves research, it is found that the criterion for their selection one can consider the absence of inflection points of the curvature on the observed section. Influence analysis of the parameter c on the graph of tangent slope angle to the curve showed that regardless of its value, it is provided the same rate of angle increase of tangent slope to the curve. Originality. It is improved the approach to geometric modeling of curves based on cubic curvature distribution with its given values at the boundary points by eliminating the inflection points from the observed section of curvilinear contours. Practical value. Curves obtained using the proposed method can be used for geometric modeling of curvilinear
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Anvarsamarin
2018-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the probabilistic generation of collapse fragility curves for evaluating the performance of 3D, reinforced concrete (RC moment-resisting building models, considering soil-structure interaction (SSI by concentration on seismic uncertainties. It considers collapse as the loss of lateral load-resisting capacity of the building structures due to severe ground shaking and consequent large interstory drifts intensified by P-Δ effects as well as the strength and stiffness deterioration of their lateral load carrying systems. The estimation of the collapse performance of structures requires the relation between the intensity measure (IM and the probability of collapse that is determined using the generated collapse fragility curves. Considering a number of 6-, 12-, and 18-story, 3D, RC moment-resisting buildings, two scalar IMs are employed to estimate their collapse fragility curve. On the other hand, the effect of the site soil type on the collapse fragility curves was taken into account by considering the soil-structure interaction. According to the obtained results, adopting the average of spectral acceleration (Saavg intensity measure is more efficient in capturing the effect of the inherent uncertainties of the strong ground motions on the structural response parameters. In addition, considering the SSI for soil type D with shear-wave velocity of 180 m/s to 360 m/s reduces the median of intensity measure (IM = Sa(T1 of fragility curve in 6-, 12-, and 18-story buildings by 4.92%, 22.26%, and 23.03%, respectively.
Projection of curves on B-spline surfaces using quadratic reparameterization
Yang, Yijun
2010-09-01
Curves on surfaces play an important role in computer aided geometric design. In this paper, we present a hyperbola approximation method based on the quadratic reparameterization of Bézier surfaces, which generates reasonable low degree curves lying completely on the surfaces by using iso-parameter curves of the reparameterized surfaces. The Hausdorff distance between the projected curve and the original curve is controlled under the user-specified distance tolerance. The projected curve is T-G 1 continuous, where T is the user-specified angle tolerance. Examples are given to show the performance of our algorithm. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
[Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].
Dinya, E
1998-04-26
The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.
Vertex algebras and algebraic curves
Frenkel, Edward
2004-01-01
Vertex algebras are algebraic objects that encapsulate the concept of operator product expansion from two-dimensional conformal field theory. Vertex algebras are fast becoming ubiquitous in many areas of modern mathematics, with applications to representation theory, algebraic geometry, the theory of finite groups, modular functions, topology, integrable systems, and combinatorics. This book is an introduction to the theory of vertex algebras with a particular emphasis on the relationship with the geometry of algebraic curves. The notion of a vertex algebra is introduced in a coordinate-independent way, so that vertex operators become well defined on arbitrary smooth algebraic curves, possibly equipped with additional data, such as a vector bundle. Vertex algebras then appear as the algebraic objects encoding the geometric structure of various moduli spaces associated with algebraic curves. Therefore they may be used to give a geometric interpretation of various questions of representation theory. The book co...
Curve collection, extension of databases
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gillemot, F.
1992-01-01
Full text: Databases: generally calculated data only. The original measurements: diagrams. Information loss between them Expensive research eg. irradiation, aging, creep etc. Original curves should be stored for reanalysing. The format of the stored curves: a. Data in ASCII files, only numbers b. Other information in strings in a second file Same name, but different extension. Extensions shows the type of the test and the type of the file. EXAMPLES. TEN is tensile information, TED is tensile data, CHN is Charpy informations, CHD is Charpy data. Storing techniques: digitalised measurements, digitalising old curves stored on paper. Use: making catalogues, reanalysing, comparison with new data. Tools: mathematical software packages like quattro, genplot, exel, mathcad, qbasic, pascal, fortran, mathlab, grapher etc. (author)
Rational points on elliptic curves
Silverman, Joseph H
2015-01-01
The theory of elliptic curves involves a pleasing blend of algebra, geometry, analysis, and number theory. This book stresses this interplay as it develops the basic theory, thereby providing an opportunity for advanced undergraduates to appreciate the unity of modern mathematics. At the same time, every effort has been made to use only methods and results commonly included in the undergraduate curriculum. This accessibility, the informal writing style, and a wealth of exercises make Rational Points on Elliptic Curves an ideal introduction for students at all levels who are interested in learning about Diophantine equations and arithmetic geometry. Most concretely, an elliptic curve is the set of zeroes of a cubic polynomial in two variables. If the polynomial has rational coefficients, then one can ask for a description of those zeroes whose coordinates are either integers or rational numbers. It is this number theoretic question that is the main subject of this book. Topics covered include the geometry and ...
Theoretical melting curve of caesium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simozar, S.; Girifalco, L.A.; Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia
1983-01-01
A statistical-mechanical model is developed to account for the complex melting curve of caesium. The model assumes the existence of three different species of caesium defined by three different electronic states. On the basis of this model, the free energy of melting and the melting curve are computed up to 60 kbar, using the solid-state data and the initial slope of the fusion curve as input parameters. The calculated phase diagram agrees with experiment to within the experimental error. Other thermodynamic properties including the entropy and volume of melting were also computed, and they agree with experiment. Since the theory requires only one adjustable constant, this is taken as strong evidence that the three-species model is satisfactory for caesium. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brücker, Herbert; Jahn, Elke J.
in a general equilibrium framework. For the empirical analysis we employ the IABS, a two percent sample of the German labor force. We find that the elasticity of the wage curve is particularly high for young workers and workers with a university degree, while it is low for older workers and workers...... Based on a wage curve approach we examine the labor market effects of migration in Germany. The wage curve relies on the assumption that wages respond to a change in the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. This allows one to derive the wage and employment effects of migration simultaneously...... with a vocational degree. The wage and employment effects of migration are moderate: a 1 percent increase in the German labor force through immigration increases the aggregate unemployment rate by less than 0.1 percentage points and reduces average wages by less 0.1 percent. While native workers benefit from...
Laffer Curves and Home Production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kotamäki Mauri
2017-06-01
Full Text Available In the earlier related literature, consumption tax rate Laffer curve is found to be strictly increasing (see Trabandt and Uhlig (2011. In this paper, a general equilibrium macro model is augmented by introducing a substitute for private consumption in the form of home production. The introduction of home production brings about an additional margin of adjustment – an increase in consumption tax rate not only decreases labor supply and reduces the consumption tax base but also allows a substitution of market goods with home-produced goods. The main objective of this paper is to show that, after the introduction of home production, the consumption tax Laffer curve exhibits an inverse U-shape. Also the income tax Laffer curves are significantly altered. The result shown in this paper casts doubt on some of the earlier results in the literature.
Complexity of Curved Glass Structures
Kosić, T.; Svetel, I.; Cekić, Z.
2017-11-01
Despite the increasing number of research on the architectural structures of curvilinear forms and technological and practical improvement of the glass production observed over recent years, there is still a lack of comprehensive codes and standards, recommendations and experience data linked to real-life curved glass structures applications regarding design, manufacture, use, performance and economy. However, more and more complex buildings and structures with the large areas of glass envelope geometrically complex shape are built every year. The aim of the presented research is to collect data on the existing design philosophy on curved glass structure cases. The investigation includes a survey about how architects and engineers deal with different design aspects of curved glass structures with a special focus on the design and construction process, glass types and structural and fixing systems. The current paper gives a brief overview of the survey findings.
Probability for Weather and Climate
Smith, L. A.
2013-12-01
Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of
Theory of overdispersion in counting statistics caused by fluctuating probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Semkow, Thomas M.
1999-01-01
It is shown that the random Lexis fluctuations of probabilities such as probability of decay or detection cause the counting statistics to be overdispersed with respect to the classical binomial, Poisson, or Gaussian distributions. The generating and the distribution functions for the overdispersed counting statistics are derived. Applications to radioactive decay with detection and more complex experiments are given, as well as distinguishing between the source and background, in the presence of overdispersion. Monte-Carlo verifications are provided
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wagner P. B.
2006-11-01
Full Text Available When the drainage area of a flowing well is long and narrow, the pressure transient behavior of the well often cannot be analyzed by conventional means. Well tests which appear to exhibit linear flow behavior for extended periods, beyond the length of time which could be attributed to flow to a fracture, have been observed for both geothermal wells and for oil and gas wells. In geothermal formations and in some of the deep low-permeability gas fields the elongated reservoir shape results from long parallel faults which appear to bound the formations. Typically such wells are also penetrating natural fractures. In other reservoirs the elongated drainage shape is due to the river delta or alluvial environment in which the reservoir sands were originally deposited. Using a recently developed scheme for custom type curve generation for a wide variety of flow geometries, the particular behavior of the well producing from an elongated linear flow system is presented in detail. Cases examined include fractured wells of variable fracture length in varions positions within the flow channel and also of variable length. The effects of partial penetration are also demonstrated. This paper illustrates the use of custom type curves in computer-aided type-curve matching. With the help of relatively inexpensive computer graphics, custom type curves are displayed which exactly represent whatever is known about a particular drainage geometry, including such variables as formation thickness and areal extent, fracture length, partial penetration, and well location. Familles of curves can be generated and displayed along with the data to help determine unknown features of the reservoir geometry. An important contribution included in this work was the development of a set of orthogonal dimensionless parameters which facilitate the generation of familles of type curves which vary one reservoir shape parameter with implied effects on other parameters. The dimensionless
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Optimization on Spaces of Curves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller-Andersen, Jakob
in Rd, and methods to solve the initial and boundary value problem for geodesics allowing us to compute the Karcher mean and principal components analysis of data of curves. We apply the methods to study shape variation in synthetic data in the Kimia shape database, in HeLa cell nuclei and cycles...... of cardiac deformations. Finally we investigate a new application of Riemannian shape analysis in shape optimization. We setup a simple elliptic model problem, and describe how to apply shape calculus to obtain directional derivatives in the manifold of planar curves. We present an implementation based...
Tracing a planar algebraic curve
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Falai; Kozak, J.
1994-09-01
In this paper, an algorithm that determines a real algebraic curve is outlined. Its basic step is to divide the plane into subdomains that include only simple branches of the algebraic curve without singular points. Each of the branches is then stably and efficiently traced in the particular subdomain. Except for the tracing, the algorithm requires only a couple of simple operations on polynomials that can be carried out exactly if the coefficients are rational, and the determination of zeros of several polynomials of one variable. (author). 5 refs, 4 figs
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ólafsson, Tjörvi
This paper provides a survey on the recent literature on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: the controversies surrounding its microfoundation and estimation, the approaches that have been tried to improve its empirical fit and the challenges it faces adapting to the open-economy framework. The new......, learning or state-dependant pricing. The introduction of openeconomy factors into the new Keynesian Phillips curve complicate matters further as it must capture the nexus between price setting, inflation and the exchange rate. This is nevertheless a crucial feature for any model to be used for inflation...... forecasting in a small open economy like Iceland....
Probability and Statistics The Science of Uncertainty (Revised Edition)
Tabak, John
2011-01-01
Probability and Statistics, Revised Edition deals with the history of probability, describing the modern concept of randomness and examining "pre-probabilistic" ideas of what most people today would characterize as randomness. This revised book documents some historically important early uses of probability to illustrate some very important probabilistic questions. It goes on to explore statistics and the generations of mathematicians and non-mathematicians who began to address problems in statistical analysis, including the statistical structure of data sets as well as the theory of
Analysis of power curves of Danish and foreign wind turbines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petersen, H.
1995-12-01
This report describes an analysis of power curves for a number of wind turbines, 30 Danish and 17 foreign - European - wind turbines. The investigation is limited to wind turbines of 150 kW capacity and greater, and to wind turbines for which a power curve is available. The power curves are transformed into a common, uniform presentation in order to facilitate the succeeding treatment, which primarily is the calculation of the production of electrical energy yielded per year. From the known data of the wind turbine, equipped generator power and rotor area and the area swept by the blades, the specific electrical production is calculated in three terms: yield per square meter of rotor area, yield per kW generator power and yield per square meter and per kilowatt generator power. Based on these findings a number of comparisons are established, such as comparisons of conceptual designs and technical- economical evaluations. (au)
Quantum electrodynamics in curved space-time
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buchbinder, I.L.; Gitman, D.M.; Fradkin, E.S.
1981-01-01
The lagrangian of quantum electrodynamics in curved space-time is constructed and the interaction picture taking into account the external gravitational field exactly is introduced. The transform from the Heisenberg picture to the interaction picture is carried out in a manifestly covariant way. The properties of free spinor and electromagnetic quantum fields are discussed and conditions under which initial and final creation and annihilation operators are connected by unitarity transformation are indicated. The derivation of Feynman's rules for quantum processes are calculated on the base of generalized normal product of operators. The way of reduction formula derivations is indicated and the suitable Green's functions are introduced. A generating functional for this Green's function is defined and the system of functional equations for them is obtained. The representation of different generating funcationals by means of functional integrals is introduced. Some consequences of S-matrix unitary condition are considered which leads to the generalization of the optic theorem
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Araujo, M.T.F.; Lopes, R.T., E-mail: maraujo@con.ufrj.br, E-mail: miriamtaina@hotmail.com [Coordenacao dos Cursos de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia (LIN/PEN/COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear. Lab. de Instrumentacao Nuclear; Poledna, R.; Delgado, J.U.; Almeida, M.C.M. de; Silva, R.L. [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ/LNMRI), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. Nacional de Metrologia das Radiacoes Ionizantes
2015-07-01
The {sup 123}I is widely used in radiodiagnostic procedures in nuclear medicine. According to Pharmacopoeia care should be taken during its production process, since radionuclidic impurities may be generated. The {sup 121}Te is an impurity that arises during the {sup 123}I production and determining their gamma emission probabilities (Pγ) is important in order to obtain more information about its decay. Activities were also obtained by absolute standardization using the sum-peak method and these values were compared to the efficiency curve method. (author)
Lectures on probability and statistics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yost, G.P.
1984-09-01
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another
Section curve reconstruction and mean-camber curve extraction of a point-sampled blade surface.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wen-long Li
Full Text Available The blade is one of the most critical parts of an aviation engine, and a small change in the blade geometry may significantly affect the dynamics performance of the aviation engine. Rapid advancements in 3D scanning techniques have enabled the inspection of the blade shape using a dense and accurate point cloud. This paper proposes a new method to achieving two common tasks in blade inspection: section curve reconstruction and mean-camber curve extraction with the representation of a point cloud. The mathematical morphology is expanded and applied to restrain the effect of the measuring defects and generate an ordered sequence of 2D measured points in the section plane. Then, the energy and distance are minimized to iteratively smoothen the measured points, approximate the section curve and extract the mean-camber curve. In addition, a turbine blade is machined and scanned to observe the curvature variation, energy variation and approximation error, which demonstrates the availability of the proposed method. The proposed method is simple to implement and can be applied in aviation casting-blade finish inspection, large forging-blade allowance inspection and visual-guided robot grinding localization.
Constraint-based Student Modelling in Probability Story Problems with Scaffolding Techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nabila Khodeir
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Constraint-based student modelling (CBM is an important technique employed in intelligent tutoring systems to model student knowledge to provide relevant assistance. This paper introduces the Math Story Problem Tutor (MAST, a Web-based intelligent tutoring system for probability story problems, which is able to generate problems of different contexts, types and difficulty levels for self-paced learning. Constraints in MAST are specified at a low-level of granularity to allow fine-grained diagnosis of the student error. Furthermore, MAST extends CBM to address errors due to misunderstanding of the narrative story. It can locate and highlight keywords that may have been overlooked or misunderstood leading to an error. This is achieved by utilizing the role of sentences and keywords that are defined through the Natural Language Generation (NLG methods deployed in the story problem generation. MAST also integrates CBM with scaffolding questions and feedback to provide various forms of help and guidance to the student. This allows the student to discover and correct any errors in his/her solution. MAST has been preliminary evaluated empirically and the results show the potential effectiveness in tutoring students with a decrease in the percentage of violated constraints along the learning curve. Additionally, there is a significant improvement in the results of the post–test exam in comparison to the pre-test exam of the students using MAST in comparison to those relying on the textbook
Matching sampler penetration curves to definitions of respirable fraction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mercer, T.T.
1977-01-01
A formal definition of 'respirable fraction' (the probability that a particle of a given size will deposit in the alveolar regions of the lung if inhaled) is useful only if there is a method of sorting out airborne contamination approximately in accordance with the definition. The matching of the definitions adopted by different organizations to the penetration curves of various types of sample is discussed. (author)
Yu, Zhi-wu; Mao, Jian-feng; Guo, Feng-qi; Guo, Wei
2016-03-01
Rail irregularity is one of the main sources causing train-bridge random vibration. A new random vibration theory for the coupled train-bridge systems is proposed in this paper. First, number theory method (NTM) with 2N-dimensional vectors for the stochastic harmonic function (SHF) of rail irregularity power spectrum density was adopted to determine the representative points of spatial frequencies and phases to generate the random rail irregularity samples, and the non-stationary rail irregularity samples were modulated with the slowly varying function. Second, the probability density evolution method (PDEM) was employed to calculate the random dynamic vibration of the three-dimensional (3D) train-bridge system by a program compiled on the MATLAB® software platform. Eventually, the Newmark-β integration method and double edge difference method of total variation diminishing (TVD) format were adopted to obtain the mean value curve, the standard deviation curve and the time-history probability density information of responses. A case study was presented in which the ICE-3 train travels on a three-span simply-supported high-speed railway bridge with excitation of random rail irregularity. The results showed that compared to the Monte Carlo simulation, the PDEM has higher computational efficiency for the same accuracy, i.e., an improvement by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Additionally, the influences of rail irregularity and train speed on the random vibration of the coupled train-bridge system were discussed.
Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere
Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan
2016-01-01
In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.
2013-01-01
This software can be used to assist with the assessment of margin of safety for a horizontal curve. It is intended for use by engineers and technicians responsible for safety analysis or management of rural highway pavement or traffic control devices...
Elliptic curves and primality proving
Atkin, A. O. L.; Morain, F.
1993-07-01
The aim of this paper is to describe the theory and implementation of the Elliptic Curve Primality Proving algorithm. Problema, numeros primos a compositis dignoscendi, hosque in factores suos primos resolvendi, ad gravissima ac utilissima totius arithmeticae pertinere, et geometrarum tum veterum tum recentiorum industriam ac sagacitatem occupavisse, tam notum est, ut de hac re copiose loqui superfluum foret.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
from biology, feel that every pattern in the living world, ranging from the folding of ... curves band c have the same rate of increase but reach different asymptotes. If these .... not at x = 0, but at xo' which is the minimum size at birth that will permit ...
Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections
Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin
2015-04-01
Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in
Mentorship, learning curves, and balance.
Cohen, Meryl S; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Quintessenza, James A; Chai, Paul J; Lindberg, Harald L; Dickey, Jamie; Ungerleider, Ross M
2007-09-01
Professionals working in the arena of health care face a variety of challenges as their careers evolve and develop. In this review, we analyze the role of mentorship, learning curves, and balance in overcoming challenges that all such professionals are likely to encounter. These challenges can exist both in professional and personal life. As any professional involved in health care matures, complex professional skills must be mastered, and new professional skills must be acquired. These skills are both technical and judgmental. In most circumstances, these skills must be learned. In 2007, despite the continued need for obtaining new knowledge and learning new skills, the professional and public tolerance for a "learning curve" is much less than in previous decades. Mentorship is the key to success in these endeavours. The success of mentorship is two-sided, with responsibilities for both the mentor and the mentee. The benefits of this relationship must be bidirectional. It is the responsibility of both the student and the mentor to assure this bidirectional exchange of benefit. This relationship requires time, patience, dedication, and to some degree selflessness. This mentorship will ultimately be the best tool for mastering complex professional skills and maturing through various learning curves. Professional mentorship also requires that mentors identify and explicitly teach their mentees the relational skills and abilities inherent in learning the management of the triad of self, relationships with others, and professional responsibilities.Up to two decades ago, a learning curve was tolerated, and even expected, while professionals involved in healthcare developed the techniques that allowed for the treatment of previously untreatable diseases. Outcomes have now improved to the point that this type of learning curve is no longer acceptable to the public. Still, professionals must learn to perform and develop independence and confidence. The responsibility to
Assigning probability gain for precursors of four large Chinese earthquakes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cao, T.; Aki, K.
1983-03-10
We extend the concept of probability gain associated with a precursor (Aki, 1981) to a set of precursors which may be mutually dependent. Making use of a new formula, we derive a criterion for selecting precursors from a given data set in order to calculate the probability gain. The probabilities per unit time immediately before four large Chinese earthquakes are calculated. They are approximately 0.09, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.08 per day for 1975 Haicheng (M = 7.3), 1976 Tangshan (M = 7.8), 1976 Longling (M = 7.6), and Songpan (M = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. These results are encouraging because they suggest that the investigated precursory phenomena may have included the complete information for earthquake prediction, at least for the above earthquakes. With this method, the step-by-step approach to prediction used in China may be quantified in terms of the probability of earthquake occurrence. The ln P versus t curve (where P is the probability of earthquake occurrence at time t) shows that ln P does not increase with t linearly but more rapidly as the time of earthquake approaches.
Du, Xiaosong; Leifsson, Leifur; Grandin, Robert; Meeker, William; Roberts, Ronald; Song, Jiming
2018-04-01
Probability of detection (POD) is widely used for measuring reliability of nondestructive testing (NDT) systems. Typically, POD is determined experimentally, while it can be enhanced by utilizing physics-based computational models in combination with model-assisted POD (MAPOD) methods. With the development of advanced physics-based methods, such as ultrasonic NDT testing, the empirical information, needed for POD methods, can be reduced. However, performing accurate numerical simulations can be prohibitively time-consuming, especially as part of stochastic analysis. In this work, stochastic surrogate models for computational physics-based measurement simulations are developed for cost savings of MAPOD methods while simultaneously ensuring sufficient accuracy. The stochastic surrogate is used to propagate the random input variables through the physics-based simulation model to obtain the joint probability distribution of the output. The POD curves are then generated based on those results. Here, the stochastic surrogates are constructed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) expansions. In particular, the NIPC methods used are the quadrature, ordinary least-squares (OLS), and least-angle regression sparse (LARS) techniques. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the ultrasonic testing simulation of a flat bottom hole flaw in an aluminum block. The results show that the stochastic surrogates have at least two orders of magnitude faster convergence on the statistics than direct Monte Carlo sampling (MCS). Moreover, the evaluation of the stochastic surrogate models is over three orders of magnitude faster than the underlying simulation model for this case, which is the UTSim2 model.
Estimation of Typhoon Wind Hazard Curves for Nuclear Sites
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Choun, Young-Sun; Kim, Min-Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
The intensity of such typhoons, which can influence the Korean Peninsula, is on an increasing trend owing to a rapid change of climate of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, nuclear facilities should be prepared against future super-typhoons. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission requires that a new NPP should be designed to endure the design-basis hurricane wind speeds corresponding to an annual exceedance frequency of 10{sup -7} (return period of 10 million years). A typical technique used to estimate typhoon wind speeds is based on a sampling of the key parameters of typhoon wind models from the distribution functions fitting statistical distributions to the observation data. Thus, the estimated wind speeds for long return periods include an unavoidable uncertainty owing to a limited observation. This study estimates the typhoon wind speeds for nuclear sites using a Monte Carlo simulation, and derives wind hazard curves using a logic-tree framework to reduce the epistemic uncertainty. Typhoon wind speeds were estimated for different return periods through a Monte-Carlo simulation using the typhoon observation data, and the wind hazard curves were derived using a logic-tree framework for three nuclear sites. The hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds were obtained. The mean hazard curves for the simulated and probable maximum winds can be used for the design and risk assessment of an NPP.
Does charge transfer correlate with ignition probability?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holdstock, Paul
2008-01-01
Flammable or explosive atmospheres exist in many industrial environments. The risk of ignition caused by electrostatic discharges is very real and there has been extensive study of the incendiary nature of sparks and brush discharges. It is clear that in order to ignite a gas, an amount of energy needs to be delivered to a certain volume of gas within a comparatively short time. It is difficult to measure the energy released in an electrostatic discharge directly, but it is possible to approximate the energy in a spark generated from a well defined electrical circuit. The spark energy required to ignite a gas, vapour or dust cloud can be determined by passing such sparks through them. There is a relationship between energy and charge in a capacitive circuit and so it is possible to predict whether or not a spark discharge will cause an ignition by measuring the charge transferred in the spark. Brush discharges are in many ways less well defined than sparks. Nevertheless, some work has been done that has established a relationship between charge transferred in brush discharges and the probability of igniting a flammable atmosphere. The question posed by this paper concerns whether such a relationship holds true in all circumstances and if there is a universal correlation between charge transfer and ignition probability. Data is presented on discharges from textile materials that go some way to answering this question.
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Collection of offshore human error probability data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basra, Gurpreet; Kirwan, Barry
1998-01-01
Accidents such as Piper Alpha have increased concern about the effects of human errors in complex systems. Such accidents can in theory be predicted and prevented by risk assessment, and in particular human reliability assessment (HRA), but HRA ideally requires qualitative and quantitative human error data. A research initiative at the University of Birmingham led to the development of CORE-DATA, a Computerised Human Error Data Base. This system currently contains a reasonably large number of human error data points, collected from a variety of mainly nuclear-power related sources. This article outlines a recent offshore data collection study, concerned with collecting lifeboat evacuation data. Data collection methods are outlined and a selection of human error probabilities generated as a result of the study are provided. These data give insights into the type of errors and human failure rates that could be utilised to support offshore risk analyses
Linear dose response curves in fungi and tradescantia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Unrau, P. [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, Ontario (Canada)
1999-07-15
;pink' loss of heterozygosity (LOH) events occur because Clone 02 repairs both DSB and LCD by recombination. Clone 02 has a linear dose response for high LET radiation. Starting from the same initial yieId frequency, wild-types have a sublinear response. The sublinear response reflects a smoothly decreasing probability that 'pinks' are generated as a function of increasing high LET dose for wild-type but not Clone 02. This smoothly decreasing response would be expected for LOH in 'wild-type' humans. It reflects an increasing proportion of DNA damage being repaired by non-recombinational pathways and/or an increasing probability of cell death with increasing dose. Clone 02 at low doses and low dose rates of low LET radiation has a linear dose response, reflecting a 1/16 probability of a lesion leading to LOH, relative to high LET lesions. This differential is held to reflect: microdosimetric differences in energy deposition and, therefore, DNA damage by low and high LET radiations; the effects of lesion clustering after high LET on the probability of generating the end wild-types. While no observations have been made at very low doses and dose rates in wild-types, there is no reason to suppose that the low LET linear non-threshold dose response of Clone 02 is abnormal. The importance of the LOH somatic genetic end-point is that it reflects cancer risk in humans. The linear non-threshold low dose low LET response curves reflects either the probability that recombinational Holliday junctions are occasionally cleaved in a rare orientation to generate LOH, or the probability that low LET lesions include a small proportion of clustered events similar to high LET ionization or both. Calculations of the Poisson probability that two or more low LET lesions will be induced in the same target suggest that dose rate effects depend upon the coincidence of DNA lesions in the same target, and that the probability of LOH depends upon lesion and repair factors. But the
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1977-03-01
As a part of Sunshine Project, study was made on the solar heat power generation system using a solar collection system composed of plane and curved reflectors. In fiscal 1976, study was made on plant characteristics and plant operation by using system simulation program, and the concept design of the system was promoted. The reflectance of the plane reflector was improved up to 0.92 by remodeling the prototype collector fabricated in last fiscal year, and the prototype test facility of full-scale reflectors for 1,000kW solar power plant was prepared to obtain design data for large reflectors. The prototype heat collection loop control equipment which was prepared to simulate control of plant operation conditions according to solar radiation fluctuation, succeeded in prediction of solar radiation fluctuation within nearly 30min. New study was also made on a system using both accumulator and molten salt heat storage equipment, and each proper capacity for power plants was determined. In addition, high-temperature vapor generation for 2 hours was achieved by the prototype heat storage equipment using KCl-LiCl molten salt. (NEDO)
Power Curve Estimation With Multivariate Environmental Factors for Inland and Offshore Wind Farms
Lee, Giwhyun; Ding, Yu; Genton, Marc G.; Xie, Le
2015-01-01
In the wind industry, a power curve refers to the functional relationship between the power output generated by a wind turbine and the wind speed at the time of power generation. Power curves are used in practice for a number of important tasks
Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory
Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag
2018-03-01
Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications
Helms, Lester L
2010-01-01
This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process
Marginal abatement cost curves for Heavy Duty Vehicles. Background report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schroten, A.; Warringa, G.; Bles, M.
2012-09-15
Cost curves were calculated for CO2 abatement technologies for Heavy Duty Vehicles. These curves were elaborated for eight different vehicle categories (six categories of truck and two subcategories), as well as for an 'average' truck and bus. Given that cost curves depend very much on underlying assumptions, the MACH model (Marginal Abatement Costs of Heavy duty vehicles) was developed. This model allows users to enter their own assumptions with respect to parameters like fuel prices and cost and lifetime of individual technologies, with the model then generating new cost curves for the various vehicle categories. This background report contains a description of the model and a summary of the results of several model runs.
Honglu, Wu; Cucinotta, F.A.; Durante, M.; Lin, Z.; Rusek, A.
2006-01-01
The space environment consists of a varying field of radiation particles including high-energy ions, with spacecraft shielding material providing the major protection to astronauts from harmful exposure. Unlike low-LET gamma or X-rays, the presence of shielding does not always reduce the radiation risks for energetic charged particle exposure. Since the dose delivered by the charged particle increases sharply as the particle approaches the end of its range, a position known as the Bragg peak, the Bragg curve does not necessarily represent the biological damage along the particle traversal since biological effects are influenced by the track structure of both primary and secondary particles. Therefore, the biological Bragg curve is dependent on the energy and the type of the primary particle, and may vary for different biological endpoints. To achieve a Bragg curve distribution, we exposed cells to energetic heavy ions with the beam geometry parallel to a monolayer of fibroblasts. Qualitative analyses of gamma-H2AX fluorescence, a known marker of DSBs, indicated increased clustering of DNA damage before the Bragg peak, enhanced homogenous distribution at the peak, and provided visual evidence of high linear energy transfer (LET) particle traversal of cells beyond the Bragg peak. A quantitative biological response curve generated for micronuclei (MN) induction across the Bragg curve did not reveal an increased yield of MN at the location of the Bragg peak. However, the ratio of mono-to bi-nucleated cells, which indicates inhibition in cell progression, increased at the Bragg peak location. These results, along with other biological concerns, show that space radiation protection with shielding can be a complicated issue.
A catalog of special plane curves
Lawrence, J Dennis
2014-01-01
Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.
Computation of undulator tuning curves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dejus, Roger J.
1997-01-01
Computer codes for fast computation of on-axis brilliance tuning curves and flux tuning curves have been developed. They are valid for an ideal device (regular planar device or a helical device) using the Bessel function formalism. The effects of the particle beam emittance and the beam energy spread on the spectrum are taken into account. The applicability of the codes and the importance of magnetic field errors of real insertion devices are addressed. The validity of the codes has been experimentally verified at the APS and observed discrepancies are in agreement with predicted reduction of intensities due to magnetic field errors. The codes are distributed as part of the graphical user interface XOP (X-ray OPtics utilities), which simplifies execution and viewing of the results
Curved canals: Ancestral files revisited
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jain Nidhi
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this article is to provide an insight into different techniques of cleaning and shaping of curved root canals with hand instruments. Although a plethora of root canal instruments like ProFile, ProTaper, LightSpeed ® etc dominate the current scenario, the inexpensive conventional root canal hand files such as K-files and flexible files can be used to get optimum results when handled meticulously. Special emphasis has been put on the modifications in biomechanical canal preparation in a variety of curved canal cases. This article compiles a series of clinical cases of root canals with curvatures in the middle and apical third and with S-shaped curvatures that were successfully completed by employing only conventional root canal hand instruments.
Invariance for Single Curved Manifold
Castro, Pedro Machado Manhaes de
2012-01-01
Recently, it has been shown that, for Lambert illumination model, solely scenes composed by developable objects with a very particular albedo distribution produce an (2D) image with isolines that are (almost) invariant to light direction change. In this work, we provide and investigate a more general framework, and we show that, in general, the requirement for such in variances is quite strong, and is related to the differential geometry of the objects. More precisely, it is proved that single curved manifolds, i.e., manifolds such that at each point there is at most one principal curvature direction, produce invariant is surfaces for a certain relevant family of energy functions. In the three-dimensional case, the associated energy function corresponds to the classical Lambert illumination model with albedo. This result is also extended for finite-dimensional scenes composed by single curved objects. © 2012 IEEE.
Invariance for Single Curved Manifold
Castro, Pedro Machado Manhaes de
2012-08-01
Recently, it has been shown that, for Lambert illumination model, solely scenes composed by developable objects with a very particular albedo distribution produce an (2D) image with isolines that are (almost) invariant to light direction change. In this work, we provide and investigate a more general framework, and we show that, in general, the requirement for such in variances is quite strong, and is related to the differential geometry of the objects. More precisely, it is proved that single curved manifolds, i.e., manifolds such that at each point there is at most one principal curvature direction, produce invariant is surfaces for a certain relevant family of energy functions. In the three-dimensional case, the associated energy function corresponds to the classical Lambert illumination model with albedo. This result is also extended for finite-dimensional scenes composed by single curved objects. © 2012 IEEE.
Transition Dipole Moments and Transition Probabilities of the CN Radical
Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue
2018-04-01
This paper studies the transition probabilities of electric dipole transitions between 10 low-lying states of the CN radical. These states are X2Σ+, A2Π, B2Σ+, a4Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π. The potential energy curves are calculated using the CASSCF method, which is followed by the icMRCI approach with the Davidson correction. The transition dipole moments between different states are calculated. To improve the accuracy of potential energy curves, core–valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are included. The Franck–Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for the vibrational levels of the A2Π, B2Σ+, b4Π, 14Σ‑, 24Π, 14Δ, and 16Π states. According to the transition probabilities and radiative lifetimes, some guidelines for detecting these states spectroscopically are proposed. The spin–orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The splitting energy in the A2Π state is determined to be 50.99 cm‑1, which compares well with the experimental ones. The potential energy curves, transition dipole moments, spectroscopic parameters, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable. The results obtained here can be used as guidelines for detecting these transitions, in particular those that have not been measured in previous experiments or have not been observed in the Sun, comets, stellar atmospheres, dark interstellar clouds, and diffuse interstellar clouds.
Energy dependence of contrast-detail-dose and object-detectability-dose curves for CT scanners
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wagner, L.K.; Cohen, G.
1982-01-01
The energy dependence of contrast-detail-dose (CdD) and object-detectability-dose (OdD) curves for computed tomographic scanners is investigated. The effects of changes in beam energy on perceptibility are shown to be due to changes in signal-to-noise ratio resulting from changes in contrast and photon statistics. Energy-dependence analysis of OdD curves is shown to depend on the atomic composition of the phantom used to generate the curves, while such an analysis of CdD curves is independent of the atomic composition of the phantom. It is also shown that any OdD curve can be generated from CdD curves and that use of this fact rectifies any potential energy-dependent interpretation of CdD curves
Projection-based curve clustering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Auder, Benjamin; Fischer, Aurelie
2012-01-01
This paper focuses on unsupervised curve classification in the context of nuclear industry. At the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Cadarache (France), the thermal-hydraulic computer code CATHARE is used to study the reliability of reactor vessels. The code inputs are physical parameters and the outputs are time evolution curves of a few other physical quantities. As the CATHARE code is quite complex and CPU time-consuming, it has to be approximated by a regression model. This regression process involves a clustering step. In the present paper, the CATHARE output curves are clustered using a k-means scheme, with a projection onto a lower dimensional space. We study the properties of the empirically optimal cluster centres found by the clustering method based on projections, compared with the 'true' ones. The choice of the projection basis is discussed, and an algorithm is implemented to select the best projection basis among a library of orthonormal bases. The approach is illustrated on a simulated example and then applied to the industrial problem. (authors)
Growth curves for Laron syndrome.
Laron, Z; Lilos, P; Klinger, B
1993-01-01
Growth curves for children with Laron syndrome were constructed on the basis of repeated measurements made throughout infancy, childhood, and puberty in 24 (10 boys, 14 girls) of the 41 patients with this syndrome investigated in our clinic. Growth retardation was already noted at birth, the birth length ranging from 42 to 46 cm in the 12/20 available measurements. The postnatal growth curves deviated sharply from the normal from infancy on. Both sexes showed no clear pubertal spurt. Girls completed their growth between the age of 16-19 years to a final mean (SD) height of 119 (8.5) cm whereas the boys continued growing beyond the age of 20 years, achieving a final height of 124 (8.5) cm. At all ages the upper to lower body segment ratio was more than 2 SD above the normal mean. These growth curves constitute a model not only for primary, hereditary insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) deficiency (Laron syndrome) but also for untreated secondary IGF-I deficiencies such as growth hormone gene deletion and idiopathic congenital isolated growth hormone deficiency. They should also be useful in the follow up of children with Laron syndrome treated with biosynthetic recombinant IGF-I. PMID:8333769
Elementary particles in curved spaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lazanu, I.
2004-01-01
The theories in particle physics are developed currently, in Minkowski space-time starting from the Poincare group. A physical theory in flat space can be seen as the limit of a more general physical theory in a curved space. At the present time, a theory of particles in curved space does not exist, and thus the only possibility is to extend the existent theories in these spaces. A formidable obstacle to the extension of physical models is the absence of groups of motion in more general Riemann spaces. A space of constant curvature has a group of motion that, although differs from that of a flat space, has the same number of parameters and could permit some generalisations. In this contribution we try to investigate some physical implications of the presumable existence of elementary particles in curved space. In de Sitter space (dS) the invariant rest mass is a combination of the Poincare rest mass and the generalised angular momentum of a particle and it permits to establish a correlation with the vacuum energy and with the cosmological constant. The consequences are significant because in an experiment the local structure of space-time departs from the Minkowski space and becomes a dS or AdS space-time. Discrete symmetry characteristics of the dS/AdS group suggest some arguments for the possible existence of the 'mirror matter'. (author)
Seismic Fragility Curves of Industrial Buildings by Using Nonlinear Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohamed Nazri Fadzli
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This study presents the steel fragility curves and performance curves of industrial buildings of different geometries. The fragility curves were obtained for different building geometries, and the performance curves were developed based on lateral load, which is affected by the geometry of the building. Three records of far-field ground motion were used for incremental dynamic analysis (IDA, and the design lateral loads for pushover analysis (POA. All designs were based on British Standard (BS 5950; however, Eurocode 8 was preferred for seismic consideration in the analysis because BS 5950 does not specify any seismic provision. The five levels of performance stated by FEMA-273, namely, operational phase, immediate occupancy, damage control, life safety, and collapse prevention (CP were used as main guidelines for evaluating structural performance. For POA, Model 2 had highest base shear, followed by Model 1 and Model 3, even though Model 2 has a smaller structure compared with Model 3. Meanwhile, the fragility curves showed that the probability of reaching or exceeding the CP level of Model 2 is the highest, followed by that of Models 1 and 3.
K-forbidden transition probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki
2000-01-01
Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)
Direct probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.
1993-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration
Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production
Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas
2018-04-01
In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.
Psychophysics of the probability weighting function
Takahashi, Taiki
2011-03-01
A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.
Estimation of Curve Tracing Time in Supercapacitor based PV Characterization
Basu Pal, Sudipta; Das Bhattacharya, Konika; Mukherjee, Dipankar; Paul, Debkalyan
2017-08-01
Smooth and noise-free characterisation of photovoltaic (PV) generators have been revisited with renewed interest in view of large size PV arrays making inroads into the urban sector of major developing countries. Such practice has recently been observed to be confronted by the use of a suitable data acquisition system and also the lack of a supporting theoretical analysis to justify the accuracy of curve tracing. However, the use of a selected bank of supercapacitors can mitigate the said problems to a large extent. Assuming a piecewise linear analysis of the V-I characteristics of a PV generator, an accurate analysis of curve plotting time has been possible. The analysis has been extended to consider the effect of equivalent series resistance of the supercapacitor leading to increased accuracy (90-95%) of curve plotting times.
Dual Smarandache Curves and Smarandache Ruled Surfaces
Tanju KAHRAMAN; Mehmet ÖNDER; H. Hüseyin UGURLU
2013-01-01
In this paper, by considering dual geodesic trihedron (dual Darboux frame) we define dual Smarandache curves lying fully on dual unit sphere S^2 and corresponding to ruled surfaces. We obtain the relationships between the elements of curvature of dual spherical curve (ruled surface) x(s) and its dual Smarandache curve (Smarandache ruled surface) x1(s) and we give an example for dual Smarandache curves of a dual spherical curve.
Modeling the probability distribution of peak discharge for infiltrating hillslopes
Baiamonte, Giorgio; Singh, Vijay P.
2017-07-01
Hillslope response plays a fundamental role in the prediction of peak discharge at the basin outlet. The peak discharge for the critical duration of rainfall and its probability distribution are needed for designing urban infrastructure facilities. This study derives the probability distribution, denoted as GABS model, by coupling three models: (1) the Green-Ampt model for computing infiltration, (2) the kinematic wave model for computing discharge hydrograph from the hillslope, and (3) the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) model for computing design rainfall intensity. The Hortonian mechanism for runoff generation is employed for computing the surface runoff hydrograph. Since the antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) significantly affects the rate of infiltration, its effect on the probability distribution of peak discharge is investigated. Application to a watershed in Sicily, Italy, shows that with the increase of probability, the expected effect of ASMC to increase the maximum discharge diminishes. Only for low values of probability, the critical duration of rainfall is influenced by ASMC, whereas its effect on the peak discharge seems to be less for any probability. For a set of parameters, the derived probability distribution of peak discharge seems to be fitted by the gamma distribution well. Finally, an application to a small watershed, with the aim to test the possibility to arrange in advance the rational runoff coefficient tables to be used for the rational method, and a comparison between peak discharges obtained by the GABS model with those measured in an experimental flume for a loamy-sand soil were carried out.
{sup 134}Cs emission probabilities determination by gamma spectrometry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Almeida, M.C.M. de, E-mail: candida@cnen.gov.br [Comissão Nacional de Energia Nuclear (DINOR/CNEN), Riode Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Poledna, R.; Delgado, J.U.; Silva, R.L.; Araujo, M.T.; Silva, C.J. da [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (LNMRI/IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
2017-07-01
The National Laboratory for Ionizing Radiation Metrology (LNMRI/IRD/CNEN) of Rio de Janeiro performed primary and secondary standardization of different radionuclides reaching satisfactory uncertainties. A solution of {sup 134}Cs radionuclide was purchased from commercial supplier to emission probabilities determination of some of its energies. {sup 134}Cs is a beta gamma emitter with 754 days of half-life. This radionuclide is used as standard in environmental, water and food control. It is also important to germanium detector calibration.The gamma emission probabilities (Pγ) were determined mainly for some energies of the {sup 134}Cs by efficiency curve method and the Pγ absolute uncertainties obtained were below 1% (k=1). (author)
The thermal curve of nuclear matter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ma, Y.G.; Peter, J.; Siwek, A.; Bocage, F.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Colin, J.; Cussol, D.; Durand, D.; Genouin-Duhamel, E.; Gulminelli, F.; Lecolley, J.F.; Lefort, T.; Le Neindre, N.; Lopez, O.; Louvel, M.; Nguyen, A.D.; Steckmeyer, J.C.; Tamain, B.; Vient, E.
1997-01-01
Earlier measurements of nuclear matter thermal curve of liquid to gas phase transition presented two limitation: only one temperature measuring method was available and the mass number of the formed nuclei decreased from 190 to 50 when the excitation energy increased. To avoid these limitations experiments with the multidetector INDRA at GANIL were carried-out. Among the quasi-projectiles issued from the 36 Ar collisions at 52, 74, 95 A.MeV on the 58 Ni, nuclei of close masses were selected. The excitation energy was determined by the calorimetry of the charged products emitted by quasi-projectiles while the temperature was measured by three different methods. Very different apparent temperatures were obtained for the same excitation energy/nucleon. Only one curve displays a slope variation but no indication of plateau. With the quasi-projectiles obtained from the collisions of 129 Xe at 50 MeV/u on a 119 Sn target behaviors similar to those of 36 Ar were observed in the covered domain of excitation energy. To solve this puzzle and recover the initial temperatures of interest the only mean was to do a theoretical simulation in which one follows the de-excitation of the nuclei formed at different excitation energies and look for the thermal curve able to reproduce the observed temperatures. Two extreme possibilities were taken into account concerning the de-excitation process: either a sequential process established at E * /A≤ 3 MeV/u or a sudden multifragmentation in several hot fragments, most probably at E * /A≥ 10 MeV/u. In both cases it was possible to reproduce the whole set of experimental results concerning the 36 Ar projectile. The initial temperature increases steadily as a function of excitation energy showing no plateau or singular points. The results indicate that, being a system without external pressure, in its passage from the liquid phase to the gas phase the nucleus does not display necessarily a temperature plateau. Discussions on
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
Gas prices: realities and probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broadfoot, M.
2000-01-01
An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry
Curved laser microjet in near field.
Kotlyar, Victor V; Stafeev, Sergey S; Kovalev, Alexey A
2013-06-20
With the use of the finite-difference time-domain-based simulation and a scanning near-field optical microscope that has a metal cantilever tip, the diffraction of a linearly polarized plane wave of wavelength λ by a glass corner step of height 2λ is shown to generate a low divergence laser jet of a root-parabolic form: over a distance of 4.7λ on the optical axis, the beam path is shifted by 2.1λ. The curved laser jet of the FWHM length depth of focus=9.5λ has the diameter FWHM=1.94λ over the distance 5.5λ, and the intensity maximum is 5 times higher than the incident wave intensity. The discrepancy between the analytical and the experimental results amounts to 11%.
Leptogenesis from loop effects in curved spacetime
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McDonald, Jamie I.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Singleton Park, Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)
2016-04-05
We describe a new mechanism — radiatively-induced gravitational leptogenesis — for generating the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe. We show how quantum loop effects in C and CP violating theories cause matter and antimatter to propagate differently in the presence of gravity, and prove this is forbidden in flat space by CPT and translation symmetry. This generates a curvature-dependent chemical potential for leptons, allowing a matter-antimatter asymmetry to be generated in thermal equilibrium in the early Universe. The time-dependent dynamics necessary for leptogenesis is provided by the interaction of the virtual self-energy cloud of the leptons with the expanding curved spacetime background, which violates the strong equivalence principle and allows a distinction between matter and antimatter. We show here how this mechanism is realised in a particular BSM theory, the see-saw model, where the quantum loops involve the heavy sterile neutrinos responsible for light neutrino masses. We demonstrate by explicit computation of the relevant two-loop Feynman diagrams how the size of the radiative corrections relevant for leptogenesis becomes enhanced by increasing the mass hierarchy of the sterile neutrinos, and show how the induced lepton asymmetry may be sufficiently large to play an important rôle in determining the baryon-to-photon ratio of the Universe.
Two-slit experiment: quantum and classical probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khrennikov, Andrei
2015-01-01
Inter-relation between quantum and classical probability models is one of the most fundamental problems of quantum foundations. Nowadays this problem also plays an important role in quantum technologies, in quantum cryptography and the theory of quantum random generators. In this letter, we compare the viewpoint of Richard Feynman that the behavior of quantum particles cannot be described by classical probability theory with the viewpoint that quantum–classical inter-relation is more complicated (cf, in particular, with the tomographic model of quantum mechanics developed in detail by Vladimir Man'ko). As a basic example, we consider the two-slit experiment, which played a crucial role in quantum foundational debates at the beginning of quantum mechanics (QM). In particular, its analysis led Niels Bohr to the formulation of the principle of complementarity. First, we demonstrate that in complete accordance with Feynman's viewpoint, the probabilities for the two-slit experiment have the non-Kolmogorovian structure, since they violate one of basic laws of classical probability theory, the law of total probability (the heart of the Bayesian analysis). However, then we show that these probabilities can be embedded in a natural way into the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) probability model. To do this, one has to take into account the randomness of selection of different experimental contexts, the joint consideration of which led Feynman to a conclusion about the non-classicality of quantum probability. We compare this embedding of non-Kolmogorovian quantum probabilities into the Kolmogorov model with well-known embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into Euclidean space (e.g., the Poincaré disk model for the Lobachvesky plane). (paper)
Foundations of the theory of probability
Kolmogorov, AN
2018-01-01
This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bryan eCort
2013-10-01
Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.
Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT
2018-01-02
We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.
Heart sounds analysis using probability assessment.
Plesinger, F; Viscor, I; Halamek, J; Jurco, J; Jurak, P
2017-07-31
This paper describes a method for automated discrimination of heart sounds recordings according to the Physionet Challenge 2016. The goal was to decide if the recording refers to normal or abnormal heart sounds or if it is not possible to decide (i.e. 'unsure' recordings). Heart sounds S1 and S2 are detected using amplitude envelopes in the band 15-90 Hz. The averaged shape of the S1/S2 pair is computed from amplitude envelopes in five different bands (15-90 Hz; 55-150 Hz; 100-250 Hz; 200-450 Hz; 400-800 Hz). A total of 53 features are extracted from the data. The largest group of features is extracted from the statistical properties of the averaged shapes; other features are extracted from the symmetry of averaged shapes, and the last group of features is independent of S1 and S2 detection. Generated features are processed using logical rules and probability assessment, a prototype of a new machine-learning method. The method was trained using 3155 records and tested on 1277 hidden records. It resulted in a training score of 0.903 (sensitivity 0.869, specificity 0.937) and a testing score of 0.841 (sensitivity 0.770, specificity 0.913). The revised method led to a test score of 0.853 in the follow-up phase of the challenge. The presented solution achieved 7th place out of 48 competing entries in the Physionet Challenge 2016 (official phase). In addition, the PROBAfind software for probability assessment was introduced.
Observable Zitterbewegung in curved spacetimes
Kobakhidze, Archil; Manning, Adrian; Tureanu, Anca
2016-06-01
Zitterbewegung, as it was originally described by Schrödinger, is an unphysical, non-observable effect. We verify whether the effect can be observed in non-inertial reference frames/curved spacetimes, where the ambiguity in defining particle states results in a mixing of positive and negative frequency modes. We explicitly demonstrate that such a mixing is in fact necessary to obtain the correct classical value for a particle's velocity in a uniformly accelerated reference frame, whereas in cosmological spacetime a particle does indeed exhibit Zitterbewegung.
Observable Zitterbewegung in curved spacetimes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kobakhidze, Archil, E-mail: archilk@physics.usyd.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Manning, Adrian, E-mail: a.manning@physics.usyd.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Tureanu, Anca, E-mail: anca.tureanu@helsinki.fi [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014 Helsinki (Finland)
2016-06-10
Zitterbewegung, as it was originally described by Schrödinger, is an unphysical, non-observable effect. We verify whether the effect can be observed in non-inertial reference frames/curved spacetimes, where the ambiguity in defining particle states results in a mixing of positive and negative frequency modes. We explicitly demonstrate that such a mixing is in fact necessary to obtain the correct classical value for a particle's velocity in a uniformly accelerated reference frame, whereas in cosmological spacetime a particle does indeed exhibit Zitterbewegung.
Differential geometry curves, surfaces, manifolds
Kohnel, Wolfgang
2002-01-01
This carefully written book is an introduction to the beautiful ideas and results of differential geometry. The first half covers the geometry of curves and surfaces, which provide much of the motivation and intuition for the general theory. Special topics that are explored include Frenet frames, ruled surfaces, minimal surfaces and the Gauss-Bonnet theorem. The second part is an introduction to the geometry of general manifolds, with particular emphasis on connections and curvature. The final two chapters are insightful examinations of the special cases of spaces of constant curvature and Einstein manifolds. The text is illustrated with many figures and examples. The prerequisites are undergraduate analysis and linear algebra.
LINS Curve in Romanian Economy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Emilian Dobrescu
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The paper presents theoretical considerations and empirical evidence to test the validity of the Laffer in Narrower Sense (LINS curve as a parabola with a maximum. Attention is focused on the so-called legal-effective tax gap (letg. The econometric application is based on statistical data (1990-2013 for Romania as an emerging European economy. Three cointegrating regressions (fully modified least squares, canonical cointegrating regression and dynamic least squares and three algorithms, which are based on instrumental variables (two-stage least squares, generalized method of moments, and limited information maximum likelihood, are involved.
Comparison of two methods to determine fan performance curves using computational fluid dynamics
Onma, Patinya; Chantrasmi, Tonkid
2018-01-01
This work investigates a systematic numerical approach that employs Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to obtain performance curves of a backward-curved centrifugal fan. Generating the performance curves requires a number of three-dimensional simulations with varying system loads at a fixed rotational speed. Two methods were used and their results compared to experimental data. The first method incrementally changes the mass flow late through the inlet boundary condition while the second method utilizes a series of meshes representing the physical damper blade at various angles. The generated performance curves from both methods are compared with an experiment setup in accordance with the AMCA fan performance testing standard.
Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima
2002-01-01
Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability
EVEREST: Pixel Level Decorrelation of K2 Light Curves
Luger, Rodrigo; Agol, Eric; Kruse, Ethan; Barnes, Rory; Becker, Andrew; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Deming, Drake
2016-10-01
We present EPIC Variability Extraction and Removal for Exoplanet Science Targets (EVEREST), an open-source pipeline for removing instrumental noise from K2 light curves. EVEREST employs a variant of pixel level decorrelation to remove systematics introduced by the spacecraft’s pointing error and a Gaussian process to capture astrophysical variability. We apply EVEREST to all K2 targets in campaigns 0-7, yielding light curves with precision comparable to that of the original Kepler mission for stars brighter than {K}p≈ 13, and within a factor of two of the Kepler precision for fainter targets. We perform cross-validation and transit injection and recovery tests to validate the pipeline, and compare our light curves to the other de-trended light curves available for download at the MAST High Level Science Products archive. We find that EVEREST achieves the highest average precision of any of these pipelines for unsaturated K2 stars. The improved precision of these light curves will aid in exoplanet detection and characterization, investigations of stellar variability, asteroseismology, and other photometric studies. The EVEREST pipeline can also easily be applied to future surveys, such as the TESS mission, to correct for instrumental systematics and enable the detection of low signal-to-noise transiting exoplanets. The EVEREST light curves and the source code used to generate them are freely available online.
DECIPHERING THERMAL PHASE CURVES OF DRY, TIDALLY LOCKED TERRESTRIAL PLANETS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koll, Daniel D. B.; Abbot, Dorian S., E-mail: dkoll@uchicago.edu [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)
2015-03-20
Next-generation space telescopes will allow us to characterize terrestrial exoplanets. To do so effectively it will be crucial to make use of all available data. We investigate which atmospheric properties can, and cannot, be inferred from the broadband thermal phase curve of a dry and tidally locked terrestrial planet. First, we use dimensional analysis to show that phase curves are controlled by six nondimensional parameters. Second, we use an idealized general circulation model to explore the relative sensitivity of phase curves to these parameters. We find that the feature of phase curves most sensitive to atmospheric parameters is the peak-to-trough amplitude. Moreover, except for hot and rapidly rotating planets, the phase amplitude is primarily sensitive to only two nondimensional parameters: (1) the ratio of dynamical to radiative timescales and (2) the longwave optical depth at the surface. As an application of this technique, we show how phase curve measurements can be combined with transit or emission spectroscopy to yield a new constraint for the surface pressure and atmospheric mass of terrestrial planets. We estimate that a single broadband phase curve, measured over half an orbit with the James Webb Space Telescope, could meaningfully constrain the atmospheric mass of a nearby super-Earth. Such constraints will be important for studying the atmospheric evolution of terrestrial exoplanets as well as characterizing the surface conditions on potentially habitable planets.
Learning curve estimation techniques for nuclear industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vaurio, Jussi K.
1983-01-01
Statistical techniques are developed to estimate the progress made by the nuclear industry in learning to prevent accidents. Learning curves are derived for accident occurrence rates based on actuarial data, predictions are made for the future, and compact analytical equations are obtained for the statistical accuracies of the estimates. Both maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments are applied to obtain parameters for the learning models, and results are compared to each other and to earlier graphical and analytical results. An effective statistical test is also derived to assess the significance of trends. The models used associate learning directly to accidents, to the number of plants and to the cumulative number of operating years. Using as a data base nine core damage accidents in electricity-producing plants, it is estimated that the probability of a plant to have a serious flaw has decreased from 0.1 to 0.01 during the developmental phase of the nuclear industry. At the same time the frequency of accidents has decreased from 0.04 per reactor year to 0.0004 per reactor year
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1975-05-30
This report composed of 6 parts summarizes the fiscal 1974 Sunshine Project research result on the solar heat power generation system with a curved reflector light collection system. Part 1 outlines the research target, research result and research system. Part 2 describes each research item in detail. This part on system and hardware researches is composed of (1) study on 1,000kW system, (2) development of plane/parabolic reflector light collection equipment, (3) development of parabolic reflector light collection equipment, (4) development of selective transparent membrane and selective absorption surface, and (5) study on heat storage equipment and heat exchange equipment. Part 3 describes the future R and D plan for every year focusing the fiscal 1975 R and D plan. Part 4 describes various cooperative activities with other research groups such as various committees related to the Sunshine Project, universities and Electrotechnical Laboratory. Part 5 describes several patents produced during this R and D. Part 6 summarizes the results on this R and D. (NEDO)
Shaw, Stephen B.; Walter, M. Todd
2009-03-01
The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is widely used to predict storm runoff for hydraulic design purposes, such as sizing culverts and detention basins. As traditionally used, the probability of calculated runoff is equated to the probability of the causative rainfall event, an assumption that fails to account for the influence of variations in soil moisture on runoff generation. We propose a modification to the SCS-CN method that explicitly incorporates rainfall return periods and the frequency of different soil moisture states to quantify storm runoff risks. Soil moisture status is assumed to be correlated to stream base flow. Fundamentally, this approach treats runoff as the outcome of a bivariate process instead of dictating a 1:1 relationship between causative rainfall and resulting runoff volumes. Using data from the Fall Creek watershed in western New York and the headwaters of the French Broad River in the mountains of North Carolina, we show that our modified SCS-CN method improves frequency discharge predictions in medium-sized watersheds in the eastern United States in comparison to the traditional application of the method.
Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability
Odafe, Victor U.
2011-01-01
Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…
Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations
López Puga, Jorge
2014-01-01
The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.
Differential geometry and topology of curves
Animov, Yu
2001-01-01
Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.
Incorporating Nonstationarity into IDF Curves across CONUS from Station Records and Implications
Wang, K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.
2017-12-01
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are widely used for engineering design of storm-affected structures. Current practice is that IDF-curves are based on observed precipitation extremes fit to a stationary probability distribution (e.g., the extreme value family). However, there is increasing evidence of nonstationarity in station records. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend test to over 1000 stations across the CONUS at a 0.05 significance level, and find that about 30% of stations test have significant nonstationarity for at least one duration (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-hours). We fit the stations to a GEV distribution with time-varying location and scale parameters using a Bayesian- methodology and compare the fit of stationary versus nonstationary GEV distributions to observed precipitation extremes. Within our fitted nonstationary GEV distributions, we compare distributions with a time-varying location parameter versus distributions with both time-varying location and scale parameters. For distributions with two time-varying parameters, we pay particular attention to instances where location and scale trends have opposing directions. Finally, we use the mathematical framework based on work of Koutsoyiannis to generate IDF curves based on the fitted GEV distributions and discuss the implications that using time-varying parameters may have on simple scaling relationships. We apply the above methods to evaluate how frequency statistics based on a stationary assumption compare to those that incorporate nonstationarity for both short and long term projects. Overall, we find that neglecting nonstationarity can lead to under- or over-estimates (depending on the trend for the given duration and region) of important statistics such as the design storm.