WorldWideScience

Sample records for gene-based outcome prediction

  1. Predicting sports betting outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Flis, Borut

    2014-01-01

    We wish to build a model, which could predict the outcome of basketball games. The goal was to achieve an sufficient enough accuracy to make a profit in sports betting. One learning example is a game in the NBA regular season. Every example has multiple features, which describe the opposing teams. We tried many methods, which return the probability of the home team winning and the probability of the away team winning. These probabilities are used for risk analysis. We used the best model in h...

  2. Predicting outcome after appendicectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kell, M R

    2012-02-03

    AIM: To validate an intraoperative appendicitis severity score (IASS) and examine outcome following emergency appendectomy. METHODS: A prospective study was undertaken, enrolling consecutive patients undergoing emergency appendicectomy. Data were obtained independently on preoperative Alvarado scores, IASS (0-3: 0 no inflammation, 1 engorged appendix\\/no peritonitis, 2 peritoneal reaction\\/exudate or 3 evidence of perforation\\/abscess) and postoperative outcome parameters. RESULTS: There were 149 patients identified with a mean age of 20.7 years. There was no association between Alvarado score and length of hospital stay, septic complication, patient sex or duration of symptoms (p>0.05). IASS was found to be an independent risk factor for septic complication, wound infection (p<0.05) and length of hospital stay (p<0.001). There was no correlation between preoperative duration of symptoms or time until surgery and intraoperative score. CONCLUSIONS: This simple scoring system can identify patients more likely to suffer morbidity following emergency appendicectomy. Specifically, this system identifies patients who have a high risk of sepsis and therefore could be of use when comparing healthcare performance.

  3. Predicting outcome of status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitinger, M; Kalss, G; Rohracher, A; Pilz, G; Novak, H; Höfler, J; Deak, I; Kuchukhidze, G; Dobesberger, J; Wakonig, A; Trinka, E

    2015-08-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is a frequent neurological emergency complicated by high mortality and often poor functional outcome in survivors. The aim of this study was to review available clinical scores to predict outcome. Literature review. PubMed Search terms were "score", "outcome", and "status epilepticus" (April 9th 2015). Publications with abstracts available in English, no other language restrictions, or any restrictions concerning investigated patients were included. Two scores were identified: "Status Epilepticus Severity Score--STESS" and "Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE--EMSE". A comprehensive comparison of test parameters concerning performance, options, and limitations was performed. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE allows detailed individualization of risk factors and is significantly superior to STESS in a retrospective explorative study. In particular, EMSE is very good at detection of good and bad outcome, whereas STESS detecting bad outcome is limited by a ceiling effect and uncertainty of correct cutoff value. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE can be adapted to different regions in the world and to advances in medicine, as new data emerge. In addition, we designed a reporting standard for status epilepticus to enhance acquisition and communication of outcome relevant data. A data acquisition sheet used from patient admission in emergency room, from the EEG lab to intensive care unit, is provided for optimized data collection. Status Epilepticus Severity Score is easy to perform and predicts bad outcome, but has a low predictive value for good outcomes. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE is superior to STESS in predicting good or bad outcome but needs marginally more time to perform. Epidemiology based Mortality score in SE may prove very useful for risk stratification in interventional studies and is recommended for individual outcome prediction. Prospective validation in different cohorts is needed for EMSE, whereas

  4. Hadamard Kernel SVM with applications for breast cancer outcome predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Hao; Ching, Wai-Ki; Cheung, Wai-Shun; Hou, Wenpin; Yin, Hong

    2017-12-21

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of deaths for women. It is of great necessity to develop effective methods for breast cancer detection and diagnosis. Recent studies have focused on gene-based signatures for outcome predictions. Kernel SVM for its discriminative power in dealing with small sample pattern recognition problems has attracted a lot attention. But how to select or construct an appropriate kernel for a specified problem still needs further investigation. Here we propose a novel kernel (Hadamard Kernel) in conjunction with Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to address the problem of breast cancer outcome prediction using gene expression data. Hadamard Kernel outperform the classical kernels and correlation kernel in terms of Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) values where a number of real-world data sets are adopted to test the performance of different methods. Hadamard Kernel SVM is effective for breast cancer predictions, either in terms of prognosis or diagnosis. It may benefit patients by guiding therapeutic options. Apart from that, it would be a valuable addition to the current SVM kernel families. We hope it will contribute to the wider biology and related communities.

  5. Module-based outcome prediction using breast cancer compendia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin H van Vliet

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The availability of large collections of microarray datasets (compendia, or knowledge about grouping of genes into pathways (gene sets, is typically not exploited when training predictors of disease outcome. These can be useful since a compendium increases the number of samples, while gene sets reduce the size of the feature space. This should be favorable from a machine learning perspective and result in more robust predictors. METHODOLOGY: We extracted modules of regulated genes from gene sets, and compendia. Through supervised analysis, we constructed predictors which employ modules predictive of breast cancer outcome. To validate these predictors we applied them to independent data, from the same institution (intra-dataset, and other institutions (inter-dataset. CONCLUSIONS: We show that modules derived from single breast cancer datasets achieve better performance on the validation data compared to gene-based predictors. We also show that there is a trend in compendium specificity and predictive performance: modules derived from a single breast cancer dataset, and a breast cancer specific compendium perform better compared to those derived from a human cancer compendium. Additionally, the module-based predictor provides a much richer insight into the underlying biology. Frequently selected gene sets are associated with processes such as cell cycle, E2F regulation, DNA damage response, proteasome and glycolysis. We analyzed two modules related to cell cycle, and the OCT1 transcription factor, respectively. On an individual basis, these modules provide a significant separation in survival subgroups on the training and independent validation data.

  6. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  7. Androgen receptor profiling predicts prostate cancer outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Stelloo (Suzan); E. Nevedomskaya (Ekaterina); H.G. van der Poel (Henk G.); J. de Jong (Jeroen); G.J.H.L. Leenders (Geert); G.W. Jenster (Guido); L. Wessels (Lodewyk); A.M. Bergman (Andries); W. Zwart (Wilbert)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractProstate cancer is the second most prevalent malignancy in men. Biomarkers for outcome prediction are urgently needed, so that high-risk patients could be monitored more closely postoperatively. To identify prognostic markers and to determine causal players in prostate cancer

  8. Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results...

  9. Prediction of processing tomato peeling outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeling outcomes of processing tomatoes were predicted using multivariate analysis of Magnetic Resonance (MR) images. Tomatoes were obtained from a whole-peel production line. Each fruit was imaged using a 7 Tesla MR system, and a multivariate data set was created from 28 different images. After ...

  10. Prediction of disease-related genes based on weighted tissue-specific networks by using DNA methylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Min; Zhang, Jiayi; Liu, Qing; Wang, Jianxin; Wu, Fang-Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Predicting disease-related genes is one of the most important tasks in bioinformatics and systems biology. With the advances in high-throughput techniques, a large number of protein-protein interactions are available, which make it possible to identify disease-related genes at the network level. However, network-based identification of disease-related genes is still a challenge as the considerable false-positives are still existed in the current available protein interaction networks (PIN). Considering the fact that the majority of genetic disorders tend to manifest only in a single or a few tissues, we constructed tissue-specific networks (TSN) by integrating PIN and tissue-specific data. We further weighed the constructed tissue-specific network (WTSN) by using DNA methylation as it plays an irreplaceable role in the development of complex diseases. A PageRank-based method was developed to identify disease-related genes from the constructed networks. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we constructed PIN, weighted PIN (WPIN), TSN, WTSN for colon cancer and leukemia, respectively. The experimental results on colon cancer and leukemia show that the combination of tissue-specific data and DNA methylation can help to identify disease-related genes more accurately. Moreover, the PageRank-based method was effective to predict disease-related genes on the case studies of colon cancer and leukemia. Tissue-specific data and DNA methylation are two important factors to the study of human diseases. The same method implemented on the WTSN can achieve better results compared to those being implemented on original PIN, WPIN, or TSN. The PageRank-based method outperforms degree centrality-based method for identifying disease-related genes from WTSN.

  11. [Encopresis--predictive factors and outcome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehler-Wex, Claudia; Scheuerpflug, Peter; Peschke, Nicole; Roth, Michael; Reitzle, Karl; Warnke, Andreas

    2005-10-01

    comparison of diagnostic, clinical and therapeutic features and their predictive value for the outcome of encopresis in children and adolescents. 85 children and adolescents (aged 9.6 +/- 3.2 years) with severe encopresis (ICD 10: F98.1) were investigated during inpatient treatment and 35 of them again 5.5 +/- 1.8 years later. Mentally retarded patients were excluded. Inpatient therapy consisted of treating constipation and/or stool regulation by means of laxatives, behavioural approaches, and the specific therapy of comorbid psychiatric disorders. During inpatient treatment 22% of the patients experienced total remission, 8% an unchanged persistence of symptoms. Of the 35 patients studied at follow-up 5.5 years later, 40% were symptom-free. As main result, prognostic outcome depended significantly on sufficient treatment of obstipation. Another important factor was the specific therapeutic approach to psychiatric comorbidity, especially to ADHD. The outcome for patients with comorbid ICD 10: F43 was significantly better than for the other patients. Those who were symptom-free at discharge had significantly better long-term outcomes. Decisive to the success of encopresis treatment were the stool regulation and the specific therapy of associated psychiatric illnesses, in particular of ADHD. Inpatient treatment revealed significantly better long-term outcomes where total remission had been achieved by the time of discharge from hospital.

  12. Network information improves cancer outcome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Janine; Winter, Christof; Isik, Zerrin; Schroeder, Michael

    2014-07-01

    Disease progression in cancer can vary substantially between patients. Yet, patients often receive the same treatment. Recently, there has been much work on predicting disease progression and patient outcome variables from gene expression in order to personalize treatment options. Despite first diagnostic kits in the market, there are open problems such as the choice of random gene signatures or noisy expression data. One approach to deal with these two problems employs protein-protein interaction networks and ranks genes using the random surfer model of Google's PageRank algorithm. In this work, we created a benchmark dataset collection comprising 25 cancer outcome prediction datasets from literature and systematically evaluated the use of networks and a PageRank derivative, NetRank, for signature identification. We show that the NetRank performs significantly better than classical methods such as fold change or t-test. Despite an order of magnitude difference in network size, a regulatory and protein-protein interaction network perform equally well. Experimental evaluation on cancer outcome prediction in all of the 25 underlying datasets suggests that the network-based methodology identifies highly overlapping signatures over all cancer types, in contrast to classical methods that fail to identify highly common gene sets across the same cancer types. Integration of network information into gene expression analysis allows the identification of more reliable and accurate biomarkers and provides a deeper understanding of processes occurring in cancer development and progression. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Deasy, Joseph O; Lindsay, Patricia E; Hope, Andrew J

    2009-01-01

    Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model

  14. PR Interval Associated Genes, Atrial Remodeling and Rhythm Outcome of Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation—A Gene-Based Analysis of GWAS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Husser

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: PR interval prolongation has recently been shown to associate with advanced left atrial remodeling and atrial fibrillation (AF recurrence after catheter ablation. While different genome-wide association studies (GWAS have implicated 13 loci to associate with the PR interval as an AF endophenotype their subsequent associations with AF remodeling and response to catheter ablation are unknown. Here, we perform a gene-based analysis of GWAS data to test the hypothesis that PR interval candidate genes also associate with left atrial remodeling and arrhythmia recurrence following AF catheter ablation.Methods and Results: Samples from 660 patients with paroxysmal (n = 370 or persistent AF (n = 290 undergoing AF catheter ablation were genotyped for ~1,000,000 SNPs. Gene-based association was investigated using VEGAS (versatile gene-based association study. Among the 13 candidate genes, SLC8A1, MEIS1, ITGA9, SCN5A, and SOX5 associated with the PR interval. Of those, ITGA9 and SOX5 were significantly associated with left atrial low voltage areas and left atrial diameter and subsequently with AF recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation.Conclusion: This study suggests contributions of ITGA9 and SOX5 to AF remodeling expressed as PR interval prolongation, low voltage areas and left atrial dilatation and subsequently to response to catheter ablation. Future and larger studies are necessary to replicate and apply these findings with the aim of designing AF pathophysiology-based multi-locus risk scores.

  15. Predicting unfavourable outcome in herpetic meningoencephalitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, Hakan; Cag, Yasemin; Karaahmetoglu, Gokhan

    BACKGROUND: Herpetic meningoencephalitis is the most frequent form of sporadic fatal encephalitis in the world and accounts for 10- 20% of all viral encephalitides. There were studies assessing the outcomes particularly by comparing the efficacies of antiviral drugs in the past. To the best of our...... knowledge, no datum exists in the literature on the mortality indicators of HME patients with definite microbiological diagnosis. Thus, our study makes use of the largest case series ever reported in the literature to provide data for the predictors of unfavorable outcome in HME cases. METHODS...... outcome in HME. Thus, it appears that both host and therapeutic parameters contribute to success in these cases. Table. Final model including independent predictors of unfavorable outcome 95% CIs OR [1] Low High p Age (years) 1.04 1.02 1.05 0.000 Glasgow coma scale 0.84 0.77 0.93 0.000 Elapsed time [2] >2...

  16. Predicting Battle Outcomes with Classification Trees

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coban, Muzaffer

    2001-01-01

    ... from the actual battlefield, The models built by using classification trees reveal that the objective variables alone cannot explain the outcome of battles, Relative factors, such as leadership, have deep...

  17. Sonographic prediction of outcome of vacuum deliveries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahrs, Birgitte H; Usman, Sana; Ghi, Tullio

    2017-01-01

    of vacuum extraction in relation to ultrasound measured head-perineum distance with a predefined cut-off of 25 mm, and 220 women were needed to discriminate between groups using a hazard ratio of 1.5 with 80% power and alpha 5%. Secondary outcomes were delivery mode and umbilical artery cord blood samples...... outcome in nulliparous women with prolonged second stage of labor. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a prospective cohort study in nulliparous women at term with prolonged second stage of labor in 7 European maternity units from 2013 through 2016. Fetal head position and station were determined using...... after birth. The time interval was evaluated using survival analyses, and the outcomes of delivery were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and descriptive statistics. Results were analyzed according to intention to treat. RESULTS: The study population comprised 222 women...

  18. Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jokinen, Hanna; Schmidt, Reinhold; Ropele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic...

  19. Prediction of unfavorable outcomes in cryptococcal meningitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hakyemez, I N; Erdem, H; Beraud, G

    2018-01-01

    Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is mostly seen in immunocompromised patients, particularly human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients, but CM may also occur in apparently immunocompetent individuals. Outcome analyses have been performed in such patients but, due to the high prevalence of HIV...

  20. Looking for students' personal characteristics predicting study outcome.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dr. A. Bakx; Theo Bergen; Dr. Cyrille A.C. Van Bragt; Marcel Croon

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The central goal of this study is to clarify to what degree former education and students' personal characteristics (the 'Big Five personality characteristics', personal orientations on learning and students' study approach) may predict study outcome (required credits and study

  1. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  2. Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

    2016-07-01

    The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Low plasma bicarbonate predicts poor outcome of cerebral malaria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many sub Saharan countries and cerebral malaria is widely recognised as one of its most fatal forms. We studied the predictive value of routine biochemical laboratory indices in predicting the outcome of cerebral malaria in 50 Nigerian children ages 9 months to 6 ...

  4. Predicting outcome of acute kidney transplant rejection using

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rekers, Niels Vincent

    2014-01-01

    Acute kidney transplant rejection is an important risk factors for adverse graft outcome. Once diagnosed, it remains difficult to predict the risk of graft loss and the response to anti-rejection treatment. The aim of this thesis was to identify biomarkers during acute rejection, which predict the

  5. Learned predictiveness and outcome predictability effects are not simply two sides of the same coin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorwart, Anna; Livesey, Evan J; Wilhelm, Francisco; Liu, Wei; Lachnit, Harald

    2017-10-01

    The Learned Predictiveness effect refers to the observation that learning about the relationship between a cue and an outcome is influenced by the predictive relevance of the cue for other outcomes. Similarly, the Outcome Predictability effect refers to a recent observation that the previous predictability of an outcome affects learning about this outcome in new situations, too. We hypothesize that both effects may be two manifestations of the same phenomenon and stimuli that have been involved in highly predictive relationships may be learned about faster when they are involved in new relationships regardless of their functional role in predictive learning as cues and outcomes. Four experiments manipulated both the relationships and the function of the stimuli. While we were able to replicate the standard effects, they did not survive a transfer to situations where the functional role of the stimuli changed, that is the outcome of the first phase becomes a cue in the second learning phase or the cue of the first phase becomes the outcome of the second phase. Furthermore, unlike learned predictiveness, there was little indication that the distribution of overt attention in the second phase was influenced by previous predictability. The results suggest that these 2 very similar effects are not manifestations of a more general phenomenon but rather independent from each other. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Outcome Prediction after Radiotherapy with Medical Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magome, Taiki

    2016-01-01

    Data science is becoming more important in many fields. In medical physics field, we are facing huge data every day. Treatment outcomes after radiation therapy are determined by complex interactions between clinical, biological, and dosimetrical factors. A key concept of recent radiation oncology research is to predict the outcome based on medical big data for personalized medicine. Here, some reports, which are analyzing medical databases with machine learning techniques, were reviewed and feasibility of outcome prediction after radiation therapy was discussed. In addition, some strategies for saving manual labors to analyze huge data in medical physics were discussed.

  7. Macaques can predict social outcomes from facial expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Bridget M; Whitehouse, Jamie; Micheletta, Jérôme

    2016-09-01

    There is widespread acceptance that facial expressions are useful in social interactions, but empirical demonstration of their adaptive function has remained elusive. Here, we investigated whether macaques can use the facial expressions of others to predict the future outcomes of social interaction. Crested macaques (Macaca nigra) were shown an approach between two unknown individuals on a touchscreen and were required to choose between one of two potential social outcomes. The facial expressions of the actors were manipulated in the last frame of the video. One subject reached the experimental stage and accurately predicted different social outcomes depending on which facial expressions the actors displayed. The bared-teeth display (homologue of the human smile) was most strongly associated with predicted friendly outcomes. Contrary to our predictions, screams and threat faces were not associated more with conflict outcomes. Overall, therefore, the presence of any facial expression (compared to neutral) caused the subject to choose friendly outcomes more than negative outcomes. Facial expression in general, therefore, indicated a reduced likelihood of social conflict. The findings dispute traditional theories that view expressions only as indicators of present emotion and instead suggest that expressions form part of complex social interactions where individuals think beyond the present.

  8. Prediction of outcome in patients with low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Andersen, Cathrine Hedegaard; Mørk Hansen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The clinical course of low back pain (LBP) cannot be accurately predicted by existing prediction tools. Therefore clinicians rely largely on their experience and clinical judgement. The objectives of this study were to investigate 1) which patient characteristics were associated with chiropractors...... intensity (0-10) and disability (RMDQ) after 2-weeks, 3-months, and 12-months. The course of LBP in 859 patients was predicted to be short (54%), prolonged (36%), or chronic (7%). Clinicians' expectations were most strongly associated with education, LBP history, radiating pain, and neurological signs......' expectations of outcome from a LBP episode, 2) if clinicians' expectations related to outcome, 3) how accurate clinical predictions were as compared to those of the STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT), and 4) if accuracy was improved by combining clinicians' expectations and the SBT. Outcomes were measured as LBP...

  9. Using predictive analytics and big data to optimize pharmaceutical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Inmaculada; Zhang, Yuting

    2017-09-15

    The steps involved, the resources needed, and the challenges associated with applying predictive analytics in healthcare are described, with a review of successful applications of predictive analytics in implementing population health management interventions that target medication-related patient outcomes. In healthcare, the term big data typically refers to large quantities of electronic health record, administrative claims, and clinical trial data as well as data collected from smartphone applications, wearable devices, social media, and personal genomics services; predictive analytics refers to innovative methods of analysis developed to overcome challenges associated with big data, including a variety of statistical techniques ranging from predictive modeling to machine learning to data mining. Predictive analytics using big data have been applied successfully in several areas of medication management, such as in the identification of complex patients or those at highest risk for medication noncompliance or adverse effects. Because predictive analytics can be used in predicting different outcomes, they can provide pharmacists with a better understanding of the risks for specific medication-related problems that each patient faces. This information will enable pharmacists to deliver interventions tailored to patients' needs. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, however, clinicians will have to understand the basics of big data and predictive analytics. Predictive analytics that leverage big data will become an indispensable tool for clinicians in mapping interventions and improving patient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  11. Action-outcome learning and prediction shape the window of simultaneity of audiovisual outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desantis, Andrea; Haggard, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    To form a coherent representation of the objects around us, the brain must group the different sensory features composing these objects. Here, we investigated whether actions contribute in this grouping process. In particular, we assessed whether action-outcome learning and prediction contribute to audiovisual temporal binding. Participants were presented with two audiovisual pairs: one pair was triggered by a left action, and the other by a right action. In a later test phase, the audio and visual components of these pairs were presented at different onset times. Participants judged whether they were simultaneous or not. To assess the role of action-outcome prediction on audiovisual simultaneity, each action triggered either the same audiovisual pair as in the learning phase ('predicted' pair), or the pair that had previously been associated with the other action ('unpredicted' pair). We found the time window within which auditory and visual events appeared simultaneous increased for predicted compared to unpredicted pairs. However, no change in audiovisual simultaneity was observed when audiovisual pairs followed visual cues, rather than voluntary actions. This suggests that only action-outcome learning promotes temporal grouping of audio and visual effects. In a second experiment we observed that changes in audiovisual simultaneity do not only depend on our ability to predict what outcomes our actions generate, but also on learning the delay between the action and the multisensory outcome. When participants learned that the delay between action and audiovisual pair was variable, the window of audiovisual simultaneity for predicted pairs increased, relative to a fixed action-outcome pair delay. This suggests that participants learn action-based predictions of audiovisual outcome, and adapt their temporal perception of outcome events based on such predictions. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Mai

    Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

  13. Principles for guiding the ONKALO prediction-outcome studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, J.; Hudson, J.A.; Anttila, P.; Koskinen, L.; Pitkaenen, P.; Hautojaervi, A.; Wikstroem, L.

    2005-09-01

    This document provides the necessary foundation for establishing the strategy for the Prediction-Outcome studies currently being conducted by the ONKALO Modelling Task Force (OMTF) during the construction of the ONKALO ramp. These studies relate to the geology, rock mechanics, hydrogeology and hydrogeochemistry. The purpose of the Prediction-Outcome campaign currently underway in the ONKALO ramp tunnel is to optimize Posiva's ability to predict rock conditions ahead of the excavation face. The aim of the work is: to enhance confidence in ability to predict rock conditions in general - and especially for the repository volumes; (later) testing and verification of repository design rules as it would not be possible to make too many additional boreholes in repository volume; and to support the ongoing construction work and make possible the application of the CEIC method. The document also presents current plans for at what stages of the ONKALO construction predictions and outcome assessments will be made as well as current plans for what properties and impacts will be predicted. These plans will evidently be subject to revision during the course of the work. (orig.)

  14. Comparison of Physician-Predicted to Measured Low Vision Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Tiffany L.; Goldstein, Judith E.; Massof, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To compare low vision rehabilitation (LVR) physicians’ predictions of the probability of success of LVR to patients’ self-reported outcomes after provision of usual outpatient LVR services; and to determine if patients’ traits influence physician ratings. Methods The Activity Inventory (AI), a self-report visual function questionnaire, was administered pre and post-LVR to 316 low vision patients served by 28 LVR centers that participated in a collaborative observational study. The physical component of the Short Form-36, Geriatric Depression Scale, and Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status were also administered pre-LVR to measure physical capability, depression and cognitive status. Following patient evaluation, 38 LVR physicians estimated the probability of outcome success (POS), using their own criteria. The POS ratings and change in functional ability were used to assess the effects of patients’ baseline traits on predicted outcomes. Results A regression analysis with a hierarchical random effects model showed no relationship between LVR physician POS estimates and AI-based outcomes. In another analysis, Kappa statistics were calculated to determine the probability of agreement between POS and AI-based outcomes for different outcome criteria. Across all comparisons, none of the kappa values were significantly different from 0, which indicates the rate of agreement is equivalent to chance. In an exploratory analysis, hierarchical mixed effects regression models show that POS ratings are associated with information about the patient’s cognitive functioning and the combination of visual acuity and functional ability, as opposed to visual acuity or functional ability alone. Conclusions Physicians’ predictions of LVR outcomes appear to be influenced by knowledge of patients’ cognitive functioning and the combination of visual acuity and functional ability - information physicians acquire from the patient’s history and examination. However

  15. Looking for students'personal characteristics predicting study outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergen, T.C.M.; Bragt, van C.A.C.; Bakx, A.W.E.A.; Croon, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The central goal of this study is to clarify to what degree former education and students’ personal characteristics (the ‘Big Five personality characteristics’, personal orientations on learning and students’ study approach) may predict study outcome (required credits and study

  16. Predicting Social Anxiety Treatment Outcome based on Therapeutic Email Conversations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogendoorn, M.; Berger, Thomas; Schulz, Ava; Stolz, Timo; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Predicting therapeutic outcome in the mental health domain is of utmost importance to enable therapists to provide the most effective treatment to a patient. Using information from the writings of a patient can potentially be a valuable source of information, especially now that more and more

  17. [Gastroschisis: Prenatal ultrasonography and obstetrical criteria for predicting neonatal outcome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducellier, G; Moussy, P; Sahmoune, L; Bonneau, S; Alanio, E; Bory, J-P

    2016-09-01

    Prenatal diagnosis of complex laparoschisis is difficult and yet it is associated with a significantly increased morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study was to define ultrasonographic factor and obstetrical criteria to predicting adverse neonatal outcome. Retrospective cohort study over 10 years, of 35 gastroschisis cases in CHU of Reims (France). The primary outcome was the neonatal death due to gastroschisis. The sonographic markers was bowel dilatation intra- or extra-abdominale, amniotic fluid, intra-uterin growth. The obstetrical criteria was fetal vitality, fetal heart rate, type of delivery, the weight and the term of birth. There were 28 live births, 16 children with favorable outcome, 8 children with adverse perinatal outcome and 4 deaths. There were any sonographic criteria to predicting adverse neonatal outcome. Only the birth weight less than 2000g was associated with an increase gastrointestinal complications (P=0.049). The type of the delivery was not associated with an adverse prenatal outcome. The birth weight less than 2000g seems to be associate with an increase gastrointestinal complications. It is important to fight against prematurity in case of gastroschisis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Machine Learning and Neurosurgical Outcome Prediction: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senders, Joeky T; Staples, Patrick C; Karhade, Aditya V; Zaki, Mark M; Gormley, William B; Broekman, Marike L D; Smith, Timothy R; Arnaout, Omar

    2018-01-01

    Accurate measurement of surgical outcomes is highly desirable to optimize surgical decision-making. An important element of surgical decision making is identification of the patient cohort that will benefit from surgery before the intervention. Machine learning (ML) enables computers to learn from previous data to make accurate predictions on new data. In this systematic review, we evaluate the potential of ML for neurosurgical outcome prediction. A systematic search in the PubMed and Embase databases was performed to identify all potential relevant studies up to January 1, 2017. Thirty studies were identified that evaluated ML algorithms used as prediction models for survival, recurrence, symptom improvement, and adverse events in patients undergoing surgery for epilepsy, brain tumor, spinal lesions, neurovascular disease, movement disorders, traumatic brain injury, and hydrocephalus. Depending on the specific prediction task evaluated and the type of input features included, ML models predicted outcomes after neurosurgery with a median accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve of 94.5% and 0.83, respectively. Compared with logistic regression, ML models performed significantly better and showed a median absolute improvement in accuracy and area under the receiver operating curve of 15% and 0.06, respectively. Some studies also demonstrated a better performance in ML models compared with established prognostic indices and clinical experts. In the research setting, ML has been studied extensively, demonstrating an excellent performance in outcome prediction for a wide range of neurosurgical conditions. However, future studies should investigate how ML can be implemented as a practical tool supporting neurosurgical care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Relative size predicts competitive outcome through 2 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liow, Lee Hsiang; Di Martino, Emanuela; Krzeminska, Malgorzata; Ramsfjell, Mali; Rust, Seabourne; Taylor, Paul D; Voje, Kjetil L

    2017-08-01

    Competition is an important biotic interaction that influences survival and reproduction. While competition on ecological timescales has received great attention, little is known about competition on evolutionary timescales. Do competitive abilities change over hundreds of thousands to millions of years? Can we predict competitive outcomes using phenotypic traits? How much do traits that confer competitive advantage and competitive outcomes change? Here we show, using communities of encrusting marine bryozoans spanning more than 2 million years, that size is a significant determinant of overgrowth outcomes: colonies with larger zooids tend to overgrow colonies with smaller zooids. We also detected temporally coordinated changes in average zooid sizes, suggesting that different species responded to a common external driver. Although species-specific average zooid sizes change over evolutionary timescales, species-specific competitive abilities seem relatively stable, suggesting that traits other than zooid size also control overgrowth outcomes and/or that evolutionary constraints are involved. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Prediction of Functional Outcome in Axonal Guillain-Barre Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Eun Jung; Kim, Dae Yul; Chang, Min Cheol; Ko, Eun Jae

    2016-06-01

    To identify the factors that could predict the functional outcome in patients with the axonal type of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). Two hundred and two GBS patients admitted to our university hospital between 2003 and 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. We defined a good outcome as being "able to walk independently at 1 month after onset" and a poor outcome as being "unable to walk independently at 1 month after onset". We evaluated the factors that differed between the good and poor outcome groups. Twenty-four patients were classified into the acute motor axonal neuropathy type. There was a statistically significant difference between the good and poor outcome groups in terms of the GBS disability score at admission, and GBS disability score and Medical Research Council sum score at 1 month after admission. In an electrophysiologic analysis, the good outcome group showed greater amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial nerve compound muscle action potentials (CMAP) and greater amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal sensory nerve action potentials (SNAP) than the poor outcome group. A lower GBS disability score at admission, high amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial CMAPs, and high amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal SNAPs were associated with being able to walk at 1 month in patients with axonal GBS.

  1. Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, L

    1999-01-01

    and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....

  2. Neonatal Sleep-Wake Analyses Predict 18-month Neurodevelopmental Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellhaas, Renée A; Burns, Joseph W; Hassan, Fauziya; Carlson, Martha D; Barks, John D E; Chervin, Ronald D

    2017-11-01

    The neurological examination of critically ill neonates is largely limited to reflexive behavior. The exam often ignores sleep-wake physiology that may reflect brain integrity and influence long-term outcomes. We assessed whether polysomnography and concurrent cerebral near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) might improve prediction of 18-month neurodevelopmental outcomes. Term newborns with suspected seizures underwent standardized neurologic examinations to generate Thompson scores and had 12-hour bedside polysomnography with concurrent cerebral NIRS. For each infant, the distribution of sleep-wake stages and electroencephalogram delta power were computed. NIRS-derived fractional tissue oxygen extraction (FTOE) was calculated across sleep-wake stages. At age 18-22 months, surviving participants were evaluated with Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley-III), 3rd edition. Twenty-nine participants completed Bayley-III. Increased newborn time in quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month cognitive and motor scores (robust regression models, adjusted r2 = 0.22, p = .007, and 0.27, .004, respectively). Decreased 0.5-2 Hz electroencephalograph (EEG) power during quiet sleep predicted worse 18-month language and motor scores (adjusted r2 = 0.25, p = .0005, and 0.33, .001, respectively). Predictive values remained significant after adjustment for neonatal Thompson scores or exposure to phenobarbital. Similarly, an attenuated difference in FTOE, between neonatal wakefulness and quiet sleep, predicted worse 18-month cognitive, language, and motor scores in adjusted analyses (each p sleep-as quantified by increased time in quiet sleep, lower electroencephalogram delta power during that stage, and muted differences in FTOE between quiet sleep and wakefulness-may improve prediction of adverse long-term outcomes for newborns with neurological dysfunction. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved

  3. [Predictive factors of the outcomes of prenatal hydronephrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bragagnini, Paolo; Estors, Blanca; Delgado, Reyes; Rihuete, Miguel Ángel; Gracia, Jesús

    2016-12-01

    To determine prenatal and postnatal independent predictors of poor outcome, spontaneous resolution, or the need for surgery in patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. We performed a retrospective study of patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. The renal pelvis APD was measured in the third prenatal trimester ultrasound, as well as in the first and second postnatal ultrasound. Other variables were taken into account, both prenatal and postnatal. For statistical analysis we used Student t-test, chi-square test, survival analysis, logrank test, and ROC curves. We included 218 patients with 293 renal units (RU). Of these, 147/293 (50.2%) RU were operated. 76/293 (25.9%) RU had spontaneous resolution and other 76/293 (25.9%) RU had poor outcome. As risk factors for surgery we found low birth weight (OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.24-11.84), prematurity (OR 4.17; 95% CI 1.35-12.88), duplication (OR 4.99; 95% CI 2.21-11.23) and the presence of nephrourological underlying pathology (OR 53.54; 95% CI 26.23-109.27). For the non-spontaneous resolution, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (RR 1.46; 95% CI 1.33-1.60) as well as the underlying nephrourological pathology and duplication. In the poor outcome, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (OR 4.54; 95% CI 1.31-15.62), the presence of nephrourological pathology (OR 4.81 95% CI 2.60-8.89) and RU that was operated (OR 4.23, 95% CI 2.35-7.60). The APD of the renal pelvis in all three ultrasounds were reliable for surgery prediction (area under the curve 0.65; 0.82; 0.71) or spontaneous resolution (area under the curve 0.80; 0.91; 0.80), only the first postnatal ultrasound has predictive value in the poor outcome (area under the curve 0.73). The higher sensitivity and specificity of the APD as predictor value was on the first postnatal ultrasound, 14.60 mm for surgery; 11.35 mm for spontaneous resolution and 15.50 mm for poor outcome. The higher APD in the renal pelvis in any of the

  4. Predicting an optimal outcome after radical prostatectomy: the trifecta nomogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastham, James A; Scardino, Peter T; Kattan, Michael W

    2008-06-01

    The optimal outcome after radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer is freedom from biochemical recurrence along with the recovery of continence and erectile function, a so-called trifecta. We evaluated our series of open radical prostatectomy cases to determine the likelihood of this outcome and develop a nomogram predicting the trifecta. We reviewed the records of patients undergoing open radical prostatectomy for clinical stage T1c-T3a prostate cancer at our center during 2000 to 2006. Men were excluded if they received preoperative hormonal therapy, chemotherapy or radiation therapy, if pretreatment prostate specific antigen was more than 50 ng/ml, or if they were impotent or incontinent before radical prostatectomy. A total of 1,577 men were included in the study. Freedom from biochemical recurrence was defined as post-radical prostatectomy prostate specific antigen less than 0.2 ng/ml. Continence was defined as not having to wear any protective pads. Potency was defined as erection adequate for intercourse upon most attempts with or without phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor. Mean patient age was 58 years and mean pretreatment prostate specific antigen was 6.4 ng/ml. A trifecta outcome (cancer-free status with recovery of continence and potency) was achieved in 62% of patients. In a nomogram developed to predict the likelihood of the trifecta baseline prostate specific antigen was the major predictive factor. Area under the ROC curve for the nomogram was 0.773 and calibration appeared excellent. A trifecta (optimal) outcome can be achieved in most men undergoing radical prostatectomy. The nomogram permits patients to estimate preoperatively their likelihood of an optimal outcome after radical prostatectomy.

  5. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdams, Sean; Shukla, Aseem R

    2010-10-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  6. Leptomeningeal collateral status predicts outcome after middle cerebral artery occlusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madelung, Christopher Fugl; Ovesen, C; Trampedach, C

    2017-01-01

    NCCT and according to European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) criteria. Modified Rankin Scale score was assessed at 90 days, and mortality at 1 year. RESULTS: At 90 days, median (IQR) modified Rankin Scale score in patients with poor collateral status was 4 (3-6) compared to 2 (1-4) in patients...... population (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Leptomeningeal collateral status predicts functional outcome, mortality, and hemorrhagic transformation following middle cerebral artery occlusion.......OBJECTIVES: Perfusion through leptomeningeal collateral vessels is a likely pivotal factor in the outcome of stroke patients. We aimed to investigate the effect of collateral status on outcome in a cohort of unselected, consecutive stroke patients with middle cerebral artery occlusion undergoing...

  7. Perceived Masculinity Predicts U.S. Supreme Court Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentence of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer’s speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States. PMID:27737008

  8. Perceived Masculinity Predicts U.S. Supreme Court Outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Chen

    Full Text Available Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentence of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer's speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States.

  9. Comparing 2 Whiplash Grading Systems to Predict Clinical Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croft, Arthur C; Bagherian, Alireza; Mickelsen, Patrick K; Wagner, Stephen

    2016-06-01

    Two whiplash severity grading systems have been developed: Quebec Task Force on Whiplash-Associated Disorders (QTF-WAD) and the Croft grading system. The majority of clinical studies to date have used the modified grading system published by the QTF-WAD in 1995 and have demonstrated some ability to predict outcome. But most studies include only injuries of lower severity (grades 1 and 2), preventing a broader interpretation. The purpose of this study was assess the ability of these grading systems to predict clinical outcome within the context of a broader injury spectrum. This study evaluated both grading systems for their ability to predict the bivalent outcome, recovery, within a sample of 118 whiplash patients who were part of a previous case-control designed study. Of these, 36% (controls) had recovered, and 64% (cases) had not recovered. The discrete bivariate distribution between recovery status and whiplash grade was analyzed using the 2-tailed cross-tabulation statistics. Applying the criteria of the original 1993 Croft grading system, the subset comprised 1 grade 1 injury, 32 grade 2 injuries, 53 grade 3 injuries, and 32 grade 4 injuries. Applying the criteria of the modified (QTF-WAD) grading system, there were 1 grade 1 injury, 89 grade 2 injuries, and 28 grade 3 injuries. Both whiplash grading systems correlated negatively with recovery; that is, higher severity grades predicted a lower probability of recovery, and statistically significant correlations were observed in both, but the Croft grading system substantially outperformed the QTF-WAD system on this measure. The Croft grading system for whiplash injury severity showed a better predictive measure for recovery status from whiplash injuries as compared with the QTF-WAD grading system.

  10. Predictive efficacy of radioisotope voiding cystography for renal outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seok Ki; Lee, Dong Soo; Kim, Kwang Myeung; Choi, Whang; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul

    2000-01-01

    As vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) could lead to renal functional deterioration when combined with urinary tract infection, we need to decide whether operative anti-reflux treatment should be performed at the time of diagnosis of VUR. Predictive value of radioisotope voiding cystography (RIVCG) for renal outcome was tested. In 35 children (18 males, 17 females), radiologic voiding cystoure-thrography (VCU), RIVCG and DMSA scan were performed. Change in renal function was evaluated using the follow-up DMSA scan, ultrasonography, and clinical information. Discriminant analysis was performed using individual or integrated variables such as reflux amount and extent at each phase of voiding on RIVCG, in addition to age, gender and cortical defect on DMSA scan at the time of diagnosis. Discriminant function was composed and its performance was examined. Reflux extent at the filling phase and reflux amount and extent at postvoiding phase had a significant prognostic value. Total reflux amount was a composite variable to predict prognosis. Discriminant function composed of reflux extent at the filling phase and reflux amount and extent at postvoiding phase showed better positive predictive value and specificity than conventional reflux grading. RIVCG could predict renal outcome by disclosing characteristic reflux pattern during various voiding phases.=20

  11. Predicting Social Anxiety Treatment Outcome Based on Therapeutic Email Conversations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; Berger, Thomas; Schulz, Ava; Stolz, Timo; Szolovits, Peter

    2017-09-01

    Predicting therapeutic outcome in the mental health domain is of utmost importance to enable therapists to provide the most effective treatment to a patient. Using information from the writings of a patient can potentially be a valuable source of information, especially now that more and more treatments involve computer-based exercises or electronic conversations between patient and therapist. In this paper, we study predictive modeling using writings of patients under treatment for a social anxiety disorder. We extract a wealth of information from the text written by patients including their usage of words, the topics they talk about, the sentiment of the messages, and the style of writing. In addition, we study trends over time with respect to those measures. We then apply machine learning algorithms to generate the predictive models. Based on a dataset of 69 patients, we are able to show that we can predict therapy outcome with an area under the curve of 0.83 halfway through the therapy and with a precision of 0.78 when using the full data (i.e., the entire treatment period). Due to the limited number of participants, it is hard to generalize the results, but they do show great potential in this type of information.

  12. Fetal omphalocele ratios predict outcomes in prenatally diagnosed omphalocele.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Freddy J; Simpson, Lynn L; Brady, Paula C; Miller, Russell S

    2011-09-01

    The objective of the study was to evaluate whether ratios considering omphalocele diameter relative to fetal biometric measurements perform better than giant omphalocele designation at predicting inability to achieve neonatal primary surgical closure. Cases of fetal omphalocele that underwent evaluation between May 2003 and July 2010 were identified. Inclusion was restricted to live births with plan for postnatal repair. Omphalocele diameter upon antenatal ultrasound was compared with abdominal circumference, femur length, and head circumference, yielding the respective omphalocele (O)/abdominal circumference (AC), O/femur length (FL), and O/head circumference (HC) ratios. The absolute measurements were used to classify giant lesions. Omphalocele ratios and giant omphalocele designations were evaluated as predictors of inability to achieve primary repair. Among 25 included cases, staged or delayed closure occurred in 52%. With an optimal cutoff of 0.21 or greater, O/HC best predicted the primary outcome (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 58.3%; odds ratio, 7.7). The O/HC of 0.21 or greater outperformed giant designations. The O/HC of 0.21 or greater best predicted staged or delayed omphalocele closure. Giant omphalocele designation, regardless of definition, poorly predicted outcome. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A new nomogram to predict pathologic outcome following radical prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Crippa

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To develop a preoperative nomogram to predict pathologic outcome in patients submitted to radical prostatectomy for clinical localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine hundred and sixty patients with clinical stage T1 and T2 prostate cancer were evaluated following radical prostatectomy, and 898 were included in the study. Following a multivariate analysis, nomograms were developed incorporating serum PSA, biopsy Gleason score, and percentage of positive biopsy cores in order to predict the risks of extraprostatic tumor extension, and seminal vesicle involvement. RESULTS: In univariate analysis there was a significant association between percentage of positive biopsy cores (p < 0.001, serum PSA (p = 0.001 and biopsy Gleason score (p < 0.001 with extraprostatic tumor extension. A similar pathologic outcome was seen among tumors with Gleason score 7, and Gleason score 8 to 10. In multivariate analysis, the 3 preoperative variables showed independent significance to predict tumor extension. This allowed the development of nomogram-1 (using Gleason scores in 3 categories - 2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10 and nomogram-2 (using Gleason scores in 2 categories - 2 to 6 and 7 to 10 to predict disease extension based on these 3 parameters. In the validation analysis, 87% and 91.1% of the time the nomograms-1 and 2, correctly predicted the probability of a pathological stage to within 10% respectively. CONCLUSION: Incorporating percent of positive biopsy cores to a nomogram that includes preoperative serum PSA and biopsy Gleason score, can accurately predict the presence of extraprostatic disease extension in patients with clinical localized prostate cancer.

  14. Writing Abilities Longitudinally Predict Academic Outcomes of Adolescents with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molitor, Stephen J.; Langberg, Joshuah M.; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D.; Dvorsky, Melissa R.; Evans, Steven W.

    2016-01-01

    Students with ADHD often experience a host of negative academic outcomes and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear whether written expression abilities uniquely contribute to the academic functioning of students with ADHD. The current study included a sample of 104 middle school students diagnosed with ADHD (grades 6–8). Participants were followed longitudinally to evaluate whether written expression abilities at baseline predicted student GPA and parent ratings of academic impairment 18 months later, after controlling for reading ability and additional relevant covariates. Written expression abilities longitudinally predicted both academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD and ODD symptoms, medication use, reading ability, and baseline values of GPA and parent-rated academic impairment. Follow-up analyses revealed that no single aspect of written expression was demonstrably more impactful on academic outcomes than the others, suggesting that writing as an entire process should be the focus of intervention. PMID:26783650

  15. Cluster analysis as a prediction tool for pregnancy outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjari, Ines; Kenjerić, Daniela; Šolić, Krešimir; Mandić, Milena L

    2015-03-01

    Considering specific physiology changes during gestation and thinking of pregnancy as a "critical window", classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy can be considered as crucial. The paper demonstrates the use of a method based on an approach from intelligent data mining, cluster analysis. Cluster analysis method is a statistical method which makes possible to group individuals based on sets of identifying variables. The method was chosen in order to determine possibility for classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy to analyze unknown correlations between different variables so that the certain outcomes could be predicted. 222 pregnant women from two general obstetric offices' were recruited. The main orient was set on characteristics of these pregnant women: their age, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and haemoglobin value. Cluster analysis gained a 94.1% classification accuracy rate with three branch- es or groups of pregnant women showing statistically significant correlations with pregnancy outcomes. The results are showing that pregnant women both of older age and higher pre-pregnancy BMI have a significantly higher incidence of delivering baby of higher birth weight but they gain significantly less weight during pregnancy. Their babies are also longer, and these women have significantly higher probability for complications during pregnancy (gestosis) and higher probability of induced or caesarean delivery. We can conclude that the cluster analysis method can appropriately classify pregnant women at early pregnancy to predict certain outcomes.

  16. Predicting Outcome in Patients with Anti-GBM Glomerulonephritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Daalen, Emma E; Jennette, J Charles; McAdoo, Stephen P; Pusey, Charles D; Alba, Marco A; Poulton, Caroline J; Wolterbeek, Ron; Nguyen, Tri Q; Goldschmeding, Roel; Alchi, Bassam; Griffiths, Meryl; de Zoysa, Janak R; Vincent, Beula; Bruijn, Jan A; Bajema, Ingeborg M

    2018-01-06

    Large studies on long-term kidney outcome in patients with anti-glomerular basement membrane (anti-GBM) GN are lacking. This study aimed to identify clinical and histopathologic parameters that predict kidney outcome in these patients. This retrospective analysis included a total of 123 patients with anti-GBM GN between 1986 and 2015 from six centers worldwide. Their kidney biopsy samples were classified according to the histopathologic classification for ANCA-associated GN. Clinical data such as details of treatment were retrieved from clinical records. The primary outcome parameter was the occurrence of ESRD. Kidney survival was analyzed using the log-rank test and Cox regression analyses. The 5-year kidney survival rate was 34%, with an improved rate observed among patients diagnosed after 2007 ( P =0.01). In patients with anti-GBM GN, histopathologic class and kidney survival were associated ( P GBM GN. Kidney outcome has improved during recent years; the success rate doubled after 2007. This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2017_11_21_CJASNPodcast_18_1_v.mp3. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  17. Can Preoperative Psychological Assessment Predict Outcomes After Temporomandibular Joint Arthroscopy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouloux, Gary F; Zerweck, Ashley G; Celano, Marianne; Dai, Tian; Easley, Kirk A

    2015-11-01

    Psychological assessment has been used successfully to predict patient outcomes after cardiothoracic and bariatric surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preoperative psychological assessment could be used to predict patient outcomes after temporomandibular joint arthroscopy. Consecutive patients with temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD) who could benefit from arthroscopy were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. All patients completed the Millon Behavior Medicine Diagnostic survey before surgery. The primary predictor variable was the preoperative psychological scores. The primary outcome variable was the difference in pain between the pre- and postoperative periods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Pearson product-moment correlation were used to determine the association between psychological factors and change in pain. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using a mixed-effects linear model and multiple linear regression. A P value of .05 was considered significant. Eighty-six patients were enrolled in the study. Seventy-five patients completed the study and were included in the final analyses. The mean change in visual analog scale (VAS) pain score 1 month after arthroscopy was -15.4 points (95% confidence interval, -6.0 to -24.7; P psychological factors was identified with univariable correlation analyses. Multivariable analyses identified that a greater pain decrease was associated with a longer duration of preoperative symptoms (P = .054) and lower chronic anxiety (P = .064). This study has identified a weak association between chronic anxiety and the magnitude of pain decrease after arthroscopy for TMD. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of chronic anxiety in the outcome after surgical procedures for the treatment of TMD. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Executive function processes predict mobility outcomes in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothe, Neha P; Fanning, Jason; Awick, Elizabeth; Chung, David; Wójcicki, Thomas R; Olson, Erin A; Mullen, Sean P; Voss, Michelle; Erickson, Kirk I; Kramer, Arthur F; McAuley, Edward

    2014-02-01

    To examine the relationship between performance on executive function measures and subsequent mobility outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Champaign-Urbana, Illinois. Community-dwelling older adults (N = 179; mean age 66.4). A 12-month exercise trial with two arms: an aerobic exercise group and a stretching and strengthening group. Established cognitive tests of executive function (flanker task, task switching, and a dual-task paradigm) and the Wisconsin card sort test. Mobility was assessed using the timed 8-foot up and go test and times to climb up and down a flight of stairs. Participants completed the cognitive tests at baseline and the mobility measures at baseline and after 12 months of the intervention. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine whether baseline executive function predicted postintervention functional performance after controlling for age, sex, education, cardiorespiratory fitness, and baseline mobility levels. Selective baseline executive function measurements, particularly performance on the flanker task (β = 0.15-0.17) and the Wisconsin card sort test (β = 0.11-0.16) consistently predicted mobility outcomes at 12 months. The estimates were in the expected direction, such that better baseline performance on the executive function measures predicted better performance on the timed mobility tests independent of intervention. Executive functions of inhibitory control, mental set shifting, and attentional flexibility were predictive of functional mobility. Given the literature associating mobility limitations with disability, morbidity, and mortality, these results are important for understanding the antecedents to poor mobility function that well-designed interventions to improve cognitive performance can attenuate. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

  19. Improved prediction of breast cancer outcome by identifying heterogeneous biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jonghwan; Park, Sanghyun; Yoon, Youngmi; Ahn, Jaegyoon

    2017-11-15

    Identification of genes that can be used to predict prognosis in patients with cancer is important in that it can lead to improved therapy, and can also promote our understanding of tumor progression on the molecular level. One of the common but fundamental problems that render identification of prognostic genes and prediction of cancer outcomes difficult is the heterogeneity of patient samples. To reduce the effect of sample heterogeneity, we clustered data samples using K-means algorithm and applied modified PageRank to functional interaction (FI) networks weighted using gene expression values of samples in each cluster. Hub genes among resulting prioritized genes were selected as biomarkers to predict the prognosis of samples. This process outperformed traditional feature selection methods as well as several network-based prognostic gene selection methods when applied to Random Forest. We were able to find many cluster-specific prognostic genes for each dataset. Functional study showed that distinct biological processes were enriched in each cluster, which seems to reflect different aspect of tumor progression or oncogenesis among distinct patient groups. Taken together, these results provide support for the hypothesis that our approach can effectively identify heterogeneous prognostic genes, and these are complementary to each other, improving prediction accuracy. https://github.com/mathcom/CPR. jgahn@inu.ac.kr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  20. Stroke scale score and early prediction of outcome after stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, R.; Zuberi, F.Z.; Afsar, S.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score as a predictor of functional outcome after ischemic stroke. Subjects and Methods: The study included 50 patients who presented to Civil Hospital, Karachi, during the study period with acute stroke and were evaluated with CT scan of brain. Only those patients were enrolled in the study that had acute ischemic stroke. The enrolled subjects were then evaluated for the neurological impairment using National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). The subjects were followed-up and their functional outcome was assessed using Barthel index (BI) on the 7th day of their admission. Results: Of the fifty patients enrolled in the study, 31 (62%) were males and 19 (38%) were females, with age ranging from 45 years to 95 years and a mean age of 59.9 years. Neurological impairment at presentation was assessed by NIHSS. The score ranged between 2 and 28. The functional outcome was evaluated on the 7th day using Barthel index (BI), which ranged from 0 to 80. NIHSS score was found to be a good predictor of functional outcome in patients with ischemic stroke (p<0.001). Other factors like gender, hypertension and heart disease did not affect the functional recovery in such patients. Various factors were found to be significant for early prediction of stroke recovery. The NIHSS score was the strongest predictor of outcome after ischemic stroke. Age at the time of the event was also found to be an important predictor for stroke recovery. Conclusion: The NIHSS score is a good predictor of patient's recovery after stroke. Assessing the patient's neurological impairment at first presentation of ischemic stroke can guide the physician regarding the prognosis and management plan. (author)

  1. Dynamic prediction of patient outcomes during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joonghee; Kim, Kyuseok; Callaway, Clifton W; Doh, Kibbeum; Choi, Jungho; Park, Jongdae; Jo, You Hwan; Lee, Jae Hyuk

    2017-02-01

    The probability of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and subsequent favourable outcomes changes dynamically during advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). We sought to model these changes using time-to-event analysis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Adult (≥18 years old), non-traumatic OHCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. Utstein variables and initial arterial blood gas measurements were used as predictors. The incidence rate of ROSC during the first 30min of ACLS in the emergency department (ED) was modelled using spline-based parametric survival analysis. Conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC (1-week and 1-month survival and 6-month neurologic recovery) were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. The ROSC and conditional probability models were then combined to estimate the likelihood of achieving ROSC and subsequent outcomes by providing k additional minutes of effort. A total of 727 patients were analyzed. The incidence rate of ROSC increased rapidly until the 10th minute of ED ACLS, and it subsequently decreased. The conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC were also dependent on the duration of resuscitation with odds ratios for 1-week and 1-month survival and neurologic recovery of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p<0.001), 0.93 (0.88-0.97, p=0.001) and 0.93 (0.87-0.99, p=0.031) per 1-min increase, respectively. Calibration testing of the combined models showed good correlation between mean predicted probability and actual prevalence. The probability of ROSC and favourable subsequent outcomes changed according to a multiphasic pattern over the first 30min of ACLS, and modelling of the dynamic changes was feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Fronto-Temporal Connectivity Predicts ECT Outcome in Major Depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amber M. Leaver

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundElectroconvulsive therapy (ECT is arguably the most effective available treatment for severe depression. Recent studies have used MRI data to predict clinical outcome to ECT and other antidepressant therapies. One challenge facing such studies is selecting from among the many available metrics, which characterize complementary and sometimes non-overlapping aspects of brain function and connectomics. Here, we assessed the ability of aggregated, functional MRI metrics of basal brain activity and connectivity to predict antidepressant response to ECT using machine learning.MethodsA radial support vector machine was trained using arterial spin labeling (ASL and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI metrics from n = 46 (26 female, mean age 42 depressed patients prior to ECT (majority right-unilateral stimulation. Image preprocessing was applied using standard procedures, and metrics included cerebral blood flow in ASL, and regional homogeneity, fractional amplitude of low-frequency modulations, and graph theory metrics (strength, local efficiency, and clustering in BOLD data. A 5-repeated 5-fold cross-validation procedure with nested feature-selection validated model performance. Linear regressions were applied post hoc to aid interpretation of discriminative features.ResultsThe range of balanced accuracy in models performing statistically above chance was 58–68%. Here, prediction of non-responders was slightly higher than for responders (maximum performance 74 and 64%, respectively. Several features were consistently selected across cross-validation folds, mostly within frontal and temporal regions. Among these were connectivity strength among: a fronto-parietal network [including left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC], motor and temporal networks (near ECT electrodes, and/or subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC.ConclusionOur data indicate that pattern classification of multimodal f

  3. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean McAdams

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones <2 cm of size because of established success rates, its minimal invasiveness and long-term safety with minimal complications. Given that alternative surgical and endourological options exist for the management of stone disease and that ESWL failure often results in the need for repeat ESWL or secondary procedures, it is highly desirable to identify variables predicting successful outcomes of ESWL in the pediatric population. Despite numerous reports and growing experience, few prospective studies and guidelines for pediatric ESWL have been completed. Variation in the methods by which study parameters are measured and reported can make it difficult to compare individual studies or make definitive recommendations. There is ongoing work and a need for continuing improvement of imaging protocols in children with renal colic, with a current focus on minimizing exposure to ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  4. Right Atrial Deformation in Predicting Outcomes in Pediatric Pulmonary Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jone, Pei-Ni; Schäfer, Michal; Li, Ling; Craft, Mary; Ivy, D Dunbar; Kutty, Shelby

    2017-12-01

    Elevated right atrial (RA) pressure is a risk factor for mortality, and RA size is prognostic of adverse outcomes in pulmonary hypertension (PH). There is limited data on phasic RA function (reservoir, conduit, and pump) in pediatric PH. We sought to evaluate (1) the RA function in pediatric PH patients compared with controls, (2) compare the RA deformation indices with Doppler indices of diastolic dysfunction, functional capacity, biomarkers, invasive hemodynamics, and right ventricular functional indices, and (3) evaluate the potential of RA deformation indices to predict clinical outcomes. Sixty-six PH patients (mean age 7.9±4.7 years) were compared with 36 controls (7.7±4.4 years). RA and right ventricular deformation indices were obtained using 2-dimensional speckle tracking (2DCPA; TomTec, Germany). RA strain, strain rates, emptying fraction, and right ventricular longitudinal strain were measured. RA function was impaired in PH patients versus controls ( P right ventricular diastolic dysfunction. RA reservoir function, pump function, the rate of atrial filling, and atrial minimum volume emerged as outcome predictors in pediatric PH. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. The neural basis of predicting the outcomes of planned actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew eJahn

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A key feature of human intelligence is the ability to predict the outcomes of one’s own actions prior to executing them. Action values are thought to be represented in part in the dorsal and ventral medial prefrontal cortex, yet current studies have focused on the value of executed actions rather than the anticipated value of a planned action. Thus, little is known about the neural basis of how individuals think (or fail to think about their actions and the potential consequences before they act. We scanned individuals with fMRI while they thought about performing actions that they knew would likely be correct or incorrect. Here we show that merely imagining an error, as opposed to imagining a correct outcome, increases activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, independently of subsequent actions. This activity overlaps with regions that respond to actual error commission. The findings show a distinct network that signals the prospective outcomes of one’s planned actions. A number of clinical disorders such as schizophrenia and drug abuse involve a failure to take the potential consequences of an action into account prior to acting. Our results thus suggest how dysfunctions of the medial prefrontal cortex may contribute to such failures.

  6. Leptomeningeal collateral status predicts outcome after middle cerebral artery occlusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madelung, C F; Ovesen, C; Trampedach, C; Christensen, A; Havsteen, I; Hansen, C K; Christensen, H

    2018-01-01

    Perfusion through leptomeningeal collateral vessels is a likely pivotal factor in the outcome of stroke patients. We aimed to investigate the effect of collateral status on outcome in a cohort of unselected, consecutive stroke patients with middle cerebral artery occlusion undergoing reperfusion therapy. This retrospectively planned analysis was passed on prospectively collected data from 187 consecutive patients with middle cerebral artery occlusion admitted within 4.5 hours to one center and treated with intravenous thrombolysis alone (N = 126), mechanical thrombectomy alone (N = 5), or both (N = 56) from May 2009 to April 2014. Non-contrast CT (NCCT) and computed tomography angiography (CTA) were provided on admission and NCCT repeated at 24 hours. Collateral status was assessed based on the initial CTA. Hemorrhagic transformation was evaluated on the 24-hour NCCT and according to European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) criteria. Modified Rankin Scale score was assessed at 90 days, and mortality at 1 year. At 90 days, median (IQR) modified Rankin Scale score in patients with poor collateral status was 4 (3-6) compared to 2 (1-4) in patients with good collateral status (P collateral status were less likely to achieve a good 90-day outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0-2) (Adjusted odds ratio 0.27, 95% CI: 0.09-0.86). During the first year, 40.9% of patients with poor collateral status died vs 18.2% of the remaining population (P = .001). Leptomeningeal collateral status predicts functional outcome, mortality, and hemorrhagic transformation following middle cerebral artery occlusion. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Machine learning landscapes and predictions for patient outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

    2017-07-01

    The theory and computational tools developed to interpret and explore energy landscapes in molecular science are applied to the landscapes defined by local minima for neural networks. These machine learning landscapes correspond to fits of training data, where the inputs are vital signs and laboratory measurements for a database of patients, and the objective is to predict a clinical outcome. In this contribution, we test the predictions obtained by fitting to single measurements, and then to combinations of between 2 and 10 different patient medical data items. The effect of including measurements over different time intervals from the 48 h period in question is analysed, and the most recent values are found to be the most important. We also compare results obtained for neural networks as a function of the number of hidden nodes, and for different values of a regularization parameter. The predictions are compared with an alternative convex fitting function, and a strong correlation is observed. The dependence of these results on the patients randomly selected for training and testing decreases systematically with the size of the database available. The machine learning landscapes defined by neural network fits in this investigation have single-funnel character, which probably explains why it is relatively straightforward to obtain the global minimum solution, or a fit that behaves similarly to this optimal parameterization.

  8. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C.; Wormington, Stephanie V.; Oleson, Kathryn C.; Lindgren, Kristen P.

    2017-01-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive—albeit less important—behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles—non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts. PMID:28804158

  9. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles- non-procrastinators , academic productive procrastinators , non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators , and classic procrastinators . Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  10. Encopresis in children. Outcome and predictive factors of successful management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Adnan A; Mekael, Farag M

    2012-06-01

    To elucidate our experience and outcome in the management of childhood encopresis, and to emphasize the factors that may predict successful management. This prospective study was carried out between September 2003 and September 2011 in the Department of Pediatric Surgery, Al-Thoura Teaching Hospital, Al-Beida and Al-Butnan Medical Teaching Center, Tobruk, Libya. One hundred and thirty-two patients (117 male, 15 female) took part of the study. The male and female ratio was 7.8:1. The participants were patients aged 4-9 years. There were 30 (22.7%) patients between 4-5 years, 61 (46.2%) between 6-7 years, and 41 (31%) between 8-9 years. Nonretentive encopresis patients were 36 (27.2%) (Group I) and 96 (72.8%) patients had retentive encopresis (Group II). Patients with low fluid intake were 87 (65.9%) and low fiber diet were 91 (68.9%). Patients with delayed toilet training were 99 (75%). The total rate of successful conservative treatment was 70.5%. The rate of successful treatment in Group I was 94.4% and in Group II was 61.5%. We observed 18.2% of the patients had recurrence of encopresis. The factors found to predict good resolution rate after medical treatment included: cooperation of the parent and patient, female gender, ages above 5 years, and non-retentive encopresis. Encopresis remains a problem for the parents and the patients. Clinical evaluation is indispensable. Good outcome can be achieved effectively. Cooperative parents and patient, female gender, age above 5 years, and nonretentive encopresis are predictors for good response to medical treatment.

  11. Predicting healthcare outcomes in prematurely born infants using cluster analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, Victoria; Lunt, Alan; Drysdale, Simon B; Yarzi, Muska N; Rafferty, Gerrard F; Greenough, Anne

    2018-05-23

    Prematurely born infants are at high risk of respiratory morbidity following neonatal unit discharge, though prediction of outcomes is challenging. We have tested the hypothesis that cluster analysis would identify discrete groups of prematurely born infants with differing respiratory outcomes during infancy. A total of 168 infants (median (IQR) gestational age 33 (31-34) weeks) were recruited in the neonatal period from consecutive births in a tertiary neonatal unit. The baseline characteristics of the infants were used to classify them into hierarchical agglomerative clusters. Rates of viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) were recorded for 151 infants in the first year after birth. Infants could be classified according to birth weight and duration of neonatal invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) into three clusters. Cluster one (MV ≤5 days) had few LRTIs. Clusters two and three (both MV ≥6 days, but BW ≥or <882 g respectively), had significantly higher LRTI rates. Cluster two had a higher proportion of infants experiencing respiratory syncytial virus LRTIs (P = 0.01) and cluster three a higher proportion of rhinovirus LRTIs (P < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Readily available clinical data allowed classification of prematurely born infants into one of three distinct groups with differing subsequent respiratory morbidity in infancy. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Factors predicting the outcome of acute renal failure in pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khana, N.; Akhtar, F.

    2010-01-01

    To determine the factors predicting renal outcome in patients developing acute renal failure in pregnancy. Study Design: Descriptive cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: Study was conducted at Nephrology Unit of Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation, Karachi, from October 2006 to March 2007. Methodology: Patients with acute renal failure due to complications of pregnancy, with normal size of both the kidneys on ultrasound were enrolled, and followed for a period of 60 days or until recovery of renal function. Patient's age and parity, presence of antenatal care, type of complication of pregnancy, foetal outcome and duration of oliguria were compared between patients who remained dialysis dependent and those who recovered renal function. Chi-square/Fisher's exact test and student's t-test, were used for determining the association of categorical and continuous variables with dialysis dependency. Results: The mean age was 29 +- 6 years. Most patients came from rural areas of interior Sindh. Sixty eight percent did not have antenatal checkups. Antepartum haemorrhage (p=0.002) and prolonged duration of oliguria (35 +- 15.7 days, p= < 0.001) were associated with dialysis dependency, which was observed in 50% of the study group. Conclusion: Ante-partum haemorrhage and prolonged oliguria were strong predictors of irreversible renal failure. This highlights the need for early recognition and referral, and the importance of trained birth attendants and antenatal care. (author)

  13. CT Measured Psoas Density Predicts Outcomes After Enterocutaneous Fistula Repair

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Wilson D.; Evans, David C.; Yoo, Taehwan

    2018-01-01

    Background Low muscle mass and quality are associated with poor surgical outcomes. We evaluated CT measured psoas muscle density as a marker of muscle quality and physiologic reserve, and hypothesized that it would predict outcomes after enterocutaneous fistula repair (ECF). Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients 18 – 90 years old with ECF failing non-operative management requiring elective operative repair at Ohio State University from 2005 – 2016 that received a pre-operative abdomen/pelvis CT with intravenous contrast within 3 months of their operation. Psoas Hounsfield Unit average calculation (HUAC) were measured at the L3 level. 1 year leak rate, 90 day, 1 year, and 3 year mortality, complication risk, length of stay, dependent discharge, and 30 day readmission were compared to HUAC. Results 100 patients met inclusion criteria. Patients were stratified into interquartile (IQR) ranges based on HUAC. The lowest HUAC IQR was our low muscle quality (LMQ) cutoff, and was associated with 1 year leak (OR 3.50, p < 0.01), 1 year (OR 2.95, p < 0.04) and 3 year mortality (OR 3.76, p < 0.01), complication risk (OR 14.61, p < 0.01), and dependent discharge (OR 4.07, p < 0.01) compared to non-LMQ patients. Conclusions Psoas muscle density is a significant predictor of poor outcomes in ECF repair. This readily available measure of physiologic reserve can identify patients with ECF on pre-operative evaluation that have significantly increased risk that may benefit from additional interventions and recovery time to mitigate risk before operative repair. PMID:29505144

  14. Family Factors Predict Treatment Outcome for Pediatric Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peris, Tara S.; Sugar, Catherine A.; Bergman, R. Lindsey; Chang, Susanna; Langley, Audra; Piacentini, John

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine family conflict, parental blame, and poor family cohesion as predictors of treatment outcome for youth receiving family-focused cognitive behavioral therapy (FCBT) for obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). Methods We analyzed data from a sample of youth who were randomized to FCBT (n = 49; 59% male; mean age = 12.43 years) as part of a larger randomized clinical trial. Youngsters and their families were assessed by an independent evaluator (IE) pre- and post- FCBT using a standardized battery of measures evaluating family functioning and OCD symptom severity. Family conflict and cohesion were measured via parent self-report on the Family Environment Scale (FES; Moos & Moos, 1994) and parental blame was measured using parent self-report on the Parental Attitudes and Behaviors Scale (PABS; Peris, 2008b). Symptom severity was rated by IE’s using the Children’s Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (CY-BOCS; Scahill et al., 1997). Results Families with lower levels of parental blame and family conflict and higher levels of family cohesion at baseline were more likely to have a child who responded to FCBT treatment even after adjusting for baseline symptom severity compared to families who endorsed higher levels of dysfunction prior to treatment. In analyses using both categorical and continuous outcome measures, higher levels of family dysfunction and difficulty in higher number of domains of family functioning were associated with lower rates of treatment response. In addition, changes in family cohesion predicted response to FCBT controlling for baseline symptom severity. Conclusions Findings speak to the role of the family in treatment for childhood OCD and highlight potential targets for future family interventions. PMID:22309471

  15. Transcranial Duplex Sonography Predicts Outcome following an Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camps-Renom, P; Méndez, J; Granell, E; Casoni, F; Prats-Sánchez, L; Martínez-Domeño, A; Guisado-Alonso, D; Martí-Fàbregas, J; Delgado-Mederos, R

    2017-08-01

    Several radiologic features such as hematoma volume are related to poor outcome following an intracerebral hemorrhage and can be measured with transcranial duplex sonography. We sought to determine the prognostic value of transcranial duplex sonography in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. We conducted a prospective study of patients diagnosed with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. Transcranial duplex sonography examinations were performed within 2 hours of baseline CT, and we recorded the following variables: hematoma volume, midline shift, third ventricle and lateral ventricle diameters, and the pulsatility index in both MCAs. We correlated these data with the CT scans and assessed the prognostic value of the transcranial duplex sonography measurements. We assessed early neurologic deterioration during hospitalization and mortality at 1-month follow-up. We included 35 patients with a mean age of 72.2 ± 12.8 years. Median baseline hematoma volume was 9.85 mL (interquartile range, 2.74-68.29 mL). We found good agreement and excellent correlation between transcranial duplex sonography and CT when measuring hematoma volume ( r = 0.791; P duplex sonography measurements showed that hematoma volume was an independent predictor of early neurologic deterioration (OR, 1.078; 95% CI, 1.023-1.135) and mortality (OR, 1.089; 95% CI, 1.020-1.160). A second regression analysis with CT variables also demonstrated that hematoma volume was associated with early neurologic deterioration and mortality. When we compared the rating operation curves of both models, their predictive power was similar. Transcranial duplex sonography showed an excellent correlation with CT in assessing hematoma volume and midline shift in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. Hematoma volume measured with transcranial duplex sonography was an independent predictor of poor outcome. © 2017 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  16. Predicting Refractive Surgery Outcome: Machine Learning Approach With Big Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achiron, Asaf; Gur, Zvi; Aviv, Uri; Hilely, Assaf; Mimouni, Michael; Karmona, Lily; Rokach, Lior; Kaiserman, Igor

    2017-09-01

    To develop a decision forest for prediction of laser refractive surgery outcome. Data from consecutive cases of patients who underwent LASIK or photorefractive surgeries during a 12-year period in a single center were assembled into a single dataset. Training of machine-learning classifiers and testing were performed with a statistical classifier algorithm. The decision forest was created by feature vectors extracted from 17,592 cases and 38 clinical parameters for each patient. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was applied to estimate the predictive value of the decision forest when applied to new patients. Analysis included patients younger than 40 years who were not treated for monovision. Efficacy of 0.7 or greater and 0.8 or greater was achieved in 16,198 (92.0%) and 14,945 (84.9%) eyes, respectively. Efficacy of less than 0.4 and less than 0.5 was achieved in 322 (1.8%) and 506 (2.9%) eyes, respectively. Patients in the low efficacy group (differences compared with the high efficacy group (≥ 0.8), yet were clinically similar (mean differences between groups of 0.7 years, of 0.43 mm in pupil size, of 0.11 D in cylinder, of 0.22 logMAR in preoperative CDVA, of 0.11 mm in optical zone size, of 1.03 D in actual sphere treatment, and of 0.64 D in actual cylinder treatment). The preoperative subjective CDVA had the highest gain (most important to the model). Correlations analysis revealed significantly decreased efficacy with increased age (r = -0.67, P big data from refractive surgeries may be of interest. [J Refract Surg. 2017;33(9):592-597.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  17. Patient assessment: preparing for a predictable aesthetic outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shamir B; Banerji, Subir; Aulakh, Raman

    2015-01-01

    The flux of patients seeking to make changes to the appearance of their smile zone appears to be on a pathway of continual increase. This is possibly due to an increase in awareness towards oral health, and perhaps social, peer and media pressures, respectively. Cohorts of dental practitioners have thus responded to the latter demands by attending a plethora of educational courses, often focusing on either restorative techniques or other disciplines, notably orthodontics and clear aligners in particular. Consequently, treatment planning and thus treatment provision may carry the risk of being biased or indeed 'outcome driven' whereby the skills and knowledge of any clinician towards a particular faculty may significantly influence the ultimate treatment plan, with the unfortunate tendency sometimes to overlook the role of the interdisciplinary approach of concomitant restorative and contemporary techniques. The role of orthodontics to facilitate the provision of such treatment, along with predictable enamel bonding, has the distinct advantage of providing an acceptable aesthetic result with minimal biological intervention. However, to achieve an optimal result in such cases requires meticulous treatment planning and patient selection to avoid pitfalls with regards to long-term stability and function. This article suggests a standardized approach to patient assessment, with an interdisciplinary perspective in mind. Clinical Relevance: With the growth of patient demand for improving the appearance of the smile, a meticulous assessment protocol is required along with effective interdisciplinary communication. This enables a comprehensive treatment plan to be developed with the correct priorities.

  18. Imaging findings predicting the outcome of cervical facet joint blocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechelhammer, Lukas; Pfirrmann, Christian W.A.; Zanetti, Marco; Hodler, Juerg; Schmid, Marius R.; Boos, Norbert

    2007-01-01

    To determine which cross-sectional imaging findings predict the short-term outcome of cervical facet joint blocks (FJB) and to evaluate the effect of combined intra-/periarticular versus periarticular injection on pain. Fifty facet joints in 37 patients were included in the study. Single, unilateral FJBs in 24 patients, and bilateral single level FJBs in 13 patients were performed, respectively. In all patients, pain relief was assessed using a visual analogue scale. All computed tomography (CT) examinations were blindly reviewed by two radiologists. Osteoarthritis was rated using the Kellgren classification. The presence of combined intra-/periarticular vs. sole periarticular injection of contrast was evaluated. Kellgren Grades 0 (n=23), 1 (n=5), 2 (n=3), 3 (n=9), and 4 (n=10) were found. Mean pain relief after injection was 35% (range: 0-100%). 40% of all injections were combined intra-/periarticular. There was neither a statistically significant difference between pain relief and combined intra-/periarticular versus sole periarticular injection (p=0.64) nor the grade of osteoarthritis (p=0.49). Pain relief after cervical FJBs does not correlate with morphologic alterations seen on CT. Periarticular FJBs are not less successful than combined intra-/periarticular FJBs. (orig.)

  19. Fetal megacystis : prediction of spontaneous resolution and outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fontanella, F.; Duin, L.; Adama van Scheltema, P. N.; Cohen-Overbeek, T. E.; Pajkrt, E.; Bekker, M.; Willekes, C.; Bax, C. J.; Bilardo, C. M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the natural history of fetal megacystis from diagnosis in utero to postnatal outcome, and to identify prognostic indicators of spontaneous resolution and postnatal outcome after resolution. Methods: This was a national retrospective cohort study. Fetal megacystis was

  20. Can bone scintigraphy predict the final outcome of pasteurized autografts?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eid, Ahmed Shawky; Jeon, Dae-Geun; Cho, Wan Hyeong

    2010-01-01

    As pasteurization is becoming more widely used in limb salvage reconstruction, more study is required to understand about host-graft junction healing, graft revascularization and incorporation, and the incidence and type of complications among pasteurized autografts. This was mainly achieved by follow-up radiography. We aimed to clarify whether Tc99m bone scanning can be considered a reliable method in determining these three parameters. Twenty-seven osteosarcoma patients with pasteurized autograft reconstructions were retrospectively reviewed using available scintigraphic and radiographic follow-up every 6 months postoperatively for 36 months. Follow-up of the unhealed cases was continued for the maximum follow-up period available for each case beyond the original study period, ranging from 1 to 15 months. Tc99m uptake was classified as cold, faint, moderate and high uptake. Junction healing was classified as none, partial and complete healing. Seventy percent of junctions united with a mean of 22 months. Ninety to 100% of junctions showed increased uptake (high or moderate) at one time of the study regardless of final outcome. 85% of the pasteurized grafts showed the characteristic ''tramline appearance''. Four grafts (15%) were complicated: pseudoarthrosis and implant failure (1), fractured plate (1), intramedullary nail (IMN) fracture (1), and prosthesis stem loosening in the host bone (1), with underlying unhealed junctions in all cases. Bone scanning can determine the stages of the graft's rim revascularization and incorporation; however, it cannot detect or predict junction healing or occurrence of complications. Supplementary treatment of unhealed junctions showing either decreased junctional uptake or graft quiescence may be warranted. Otherwise, detection of distant metastasis and early local recurrence remains the main application of Tc99m scanning in the management of bone sarcomas. (orig.)

  1. The success of cardiotocography in predicting perinatal outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alpaslan Kaban

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The determination of the fetal condition duringlabor is important to minimize fetal death due to asphyxiaand the neurological sequelae of fetal hypoxia.This study evaluated the success of fetal cardiotocographyin predicting perinatal consequences.Materials and methods: This study enrolled 101 full-termpregnant women admitted for delivery to Vakif GurebaTraining and Research Hospital between October 2009and February 2010. Women were included if they wereaged 18-45 years and within 36-41 weeks of gestation.During a 20-min period of fetal monitoring, a change inFHR (fetal heart rate lasting for 15 s or two elevated runsof 15 beats was evaluated as a reactive NST (non-stresstest. The umbilical artery pH was used as the “gold standard”for assessing fetal asphyxia.Results: The mean age of the women included in thestudy was 27.82 ± 5.29 years, the average parity was1.09± 0.96. The pH was normal in 85 neonates, while 13 hadfetal asphyxia. No significant difference in umbilical cordblood pH, pO2, or pCO2 was observed between these twogroups (p = 0.497, p = 0.722, and p = 0.053, respectively.No significant difference in maternal age, parity, or birthweight was found between the group with fetal distressbased on CTG (cardiotocography and the normal group.Conclusion: Cardiotocography is an important test duringlabor for labor management, it is insufficient for predictingthe perinatal outcome. Therefore, labor should beevaluated on an individualized basis. J Clin Exp Invest2012; 3(2: 168-171

  2. Can bone scintigraphy predict the final outcome of pasteurized autografts?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eid, Ahmed Shawky [Ain Shams University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Cairo (Egypt); Jeon, Dae-Geun; Cho, Wan Hyeong [Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-10-15

    As pasteurization is becoming more widely used in limb salvage reconstruction, more study is required to understand about host-graft junction healing, graft revascularization and incorporation, and the incidence and type of complications among pasteurized autografts. This was mainly achieved by follow-up radiography. We aimed to clarify whether Tc99m bone scanning can be considered a reliable method in determining these three parameters. Twenty-seven osteosarcoma patients with pasteurized autograft reconstructions were retrospectively reviewed using available scintigraphic and radiographic follow-up every 6 months postoperatively for 36 months. Follow-up of the unhealed cases was continued for the maximum follow-up period available for each case beyond the original study period, ranging from 1 to 15 months. Tc99m uptake was classified as cold, faint, moderate and high uptake. Junction healing was classified as none, partial and complete healing. Seventy percent of junctions united with a mean of 22 months. Ninety to 100% of junctions showed increased uptake (high or moderate) at one time of the study regardless of final outcome. 85% of the pasteurized grafts showed the characteristic ''tramline appearance''. Four grafts (15%) were complicated: pseudoarthrosis and implant failure (1), fractured plate (1), intramedullary nail (IMN) fracture (1), and prosthesis stem loosening in the host bone (1), with underlying unhealed junctions in all cases. Bone scanning can determine the stages of the graft's rim revascularization and incorporation; however, it cannot detect or predict junction healing or occurrence of complications. Supplementary treatment of unhealed junctions showing either decreased junctional uptake or graft quiescence may be warranted. Otherwise, detection of distant metastasis and early local recurrence remains the main application of Tc99m scanning in the management of bone sarcomas. (orig.)

  3. Could the outcome of the 2016 US elections have been predicted from past voting patterns?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schmitz, Peter MU

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In South Africa, a team of analysts has for some years been using statistical techniques to predict election outcomes during election nights in South Africa. The prediction method involves using statistical clusters based on past voting patterns...

  4. Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korkola, James E; Waldman, Frederic M; Blaveri, Ekaterina; DeVries, Sandy; Moore, Dan H II; Hwang, E Shelley; Chen, Yunn-Yi; Estep, Anne LH; Chew, Karen L; Jensen, Ronald H

    2007-01-01

    Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, presenting with a wide range of histologic, clinical, and genetic features. Microarray technology has shown promise in predicting outcome in these patients. We profiled 162 breast tumors using expression microarrays to stratify tumors based on gene expression. A subset of 55 tumors with extensive follow-up was used to identify gene sets that predicted outcome. The predictive gene set was further tested in previously published data sets. We used different statistical methods to identify three gene sets associated with disease free survival. A fourth gene set, consisting of 21 genes in common to all three sets, also had the ability to predict patient outcome. To validate the predictive utility of this derived gene set, it was tested in two published data sets from other groups. This gene set resulted in significant separation of patients on the basis of survival in these data sets, correctly predicting outcome in 62–65% of patients. By comparing outcome prediction within subgroups based on ER status, grade, and nodal status, we found that our gene set was most effective in predicting outcome in ER positive and node negative tumors. This robust gene selection with extensive validation has identified a predictive gene set that may have clinical utility for outcome prediction in breast cancer patients

  5. Anticipation of complications after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: prediction of individual outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donkervoort, S. C.; Kortram, K.; Dijksman, L. M.; Boermeester, M. A.; van Ramshorst, B.; Boerma, D.

    2016-01-01

    Complication rates after a laparoscopic cholecystectomy are still up to 10 %. Knowledge of individual patient risk profiles could help to reduce morbidity. The aim of this study is to create risk profiles for specific complications to anticipate on individual outcome. Individual patient outcome for

  6. Fetal megacystis : prediction of spontaneous resolution and outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fontanella, F; Duin, L; Adama van Scheltema, P N; Cohen-Overbeek, T E; Pajkrt, E; Bekker, M; Willekes, C; Bax, C J; Bilardo, C M

    2017-01-01

    Objectives To investigate the natural history of fetal megacystis from diagnosis in utero to postnatal outcome, and to identify prognostic indicators of spontaneous resolution and postnatal outcome after resolution. Methods This was a national retrospective cohort study. Fetal megacystis was defined

  7. FERAL : Network-based classifier with application to breast cancer outcome prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allahyar, A.; De Ridder, J.

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Breast cancer outcome prediction based on gene expression profiles is an important strategy for personalize patient care. To improve performance and consistency of discovered markers of the initial molecular classifiers, network-based outcome prediction methods (NOPs) have been proposed.

  8. An evolution of trauma care evaluation: A thesis on trauma registry and outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, P.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome prediction models play an invaluable role in the evaluation and improvement of modern trauma care. Trauma registries underlying these outcome prediction models need to be accurate, complete and consistent. This thesis focused on the opportunities and limitations of trauma registries and

  9. Predicting outcome from coma : man-in-the-barrel syndrome as potential pitfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elting, JW; Haaxma, R; De Keyser, J; Sulter, G.

    The Glasgow coma scale motor score is often used in predicting outcome after hypoxic ischemic coma. Judicious care should be exerted when using this variable in predicting outcome in patients with coma following hypotension since borderzone infarction can obscure the clinical picture. We describe a

  10. Predicting Community College Outcomes: Does High School CTE Participation Have a Significant Effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Cecile; Lichtenberger, Eric; Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relative importance of participation in high school career and technical education (CTE) programs in predicting community college outcomes. A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to predict community college outcome attainment among a random sample of direct community college entrants. Results show that…

  11. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  12. Early prediction of outcome of activities of daily living after stroke: a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Veerbeek, J.M.; Kwakkel, G.; Wegen, van, E.E.H.; Ket, J.C.F.; Heijmans, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables that are predictive or not predictive for outcome of ADL after stroke. METHODS-PubMed, Ebsco/Cinahl and Embase were systematically searched for prognostic studies in which stroke patients were inclu...

  13. Predicting the Outcome of NBA Playoffs Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Ge Cheng; Zhenyu Zhang; Moses Ntanda Kyebambe; Nasser Kimbugwe

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the outcome of National Basketball Association (NBA) matches poses a challenging problem of interest to the research community as well as the general public. In this article, we formalize the problem of predicting NBA game results as a classification problem and apply the principle of Maximum Entropy to construct an NBA Maximum Entropy (NBAME) model that fits to discrete statistics for NBA games, and then predict the outcomes of NBA playoffs using the model. Our results reveal that...

  14. Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions

    OpenAIRE

    JS Armstrong; Philip D. Hutcherson

    2005-01-01

    Role -playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior re search, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p

  15. Outcome prediction in gastroschisis - The gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puligandla, Pramod S; Baird, Robert; Skarsgard, Eric D; Emil, Sherif; Laberge, Jean-Martin

    2017-05-01

    The GPS enables risk stratification for gastroschisis and helps discriminate low from high morbidity groups. The purpose of this study was to revalidate GPS's characterization of a high morbidity group and to quantify relationships between the GPS and outcomes. With REB approval, complete survivor data from a national gastroschisis registry was collected. GPS bowel injury scoring was revalidated excluding the initial inception/validation cohorts (>2011). Length of stay (LOS), 1st enteral feed days (dFPO), TPN days (dTPN), and aggregate complications (COMP) were compared between low and high morbidity risk groups. Mathematical relationships between outcomes and integer increases in GPS were explored using the entire cohort (2005-present). Median (range) LOS, dPO, and dTPN for the entire cohort (n=849) was 36 (26,62), 13 (9,18), and 27 (20,46) days, respectively. High-risk patients (GPS≥2; n=80) experienced significantly worse outcomes than low risk patients (n=263). Each integer increase in GPS was associated with increases in LOS and dTPN by 16.9 and 12.7days, respectively (pGPS effectively discriminates low from high morbidity risk groups. Within the high risk group, integer increases in GPS produce quantitatively differentiated outcomes which may guide initial counseling and resource allocation. IIb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Writing Abilities Longitudinally Predict Academic Outcomes of Adolescents with ADHD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molitor, Stephen J.; Langberg, Joshua M.; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D.; Dvorsky, Melissa R.; Evans, Steven W.

    2016-01-01

    Students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience a host of negative academic outcomes, and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression, but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear…

  17. Module-Based Outcome Prediction Using Breast Cancer Compendia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Vliet, M.H.; Klijn, C.N.; Wessels, L.F.; Reinders, M.J.T.

    2007-01-01

    Background. The availability of large collections of microarray datasets (compendia), or knowledge about grouping of genes into pathways (gene sets), is typically not exploited when training predictors of disease outcome. These can be useful since a compendium increases the number of samples, while

  18. Using the Revised Trauma Score to Predict Outcome in Severely ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusion: The results in this study revealed that though the weighted RTS was effective in determining mortality outcome in head injured patients, the mortality rate in this study was high because of delayed transfer of patients due to poor ambulance services, associated cervical spine injuries and gunshot injuries to the ...

  19. Nomogram for predicting the probability of the positive outcome of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    F.A. Yeboah

    Abstract. Introduction and objectives: Several existing models have been developed to predict positive prostate biopsy among men undergoing evaluation for prostate cancer (PCa). However, most of these models have come from industrialized countries. We therefore, developed a prostate disease nomogram model to ...

  20. Stricture location predicts swallowing outcomes following endoscopic rendezvous procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Katherine N; Shah, Rupali N; Buckmire, Robert A

    2017-06-01

    Complete pharyngoesophageal strictures may be encountered by the otolaryngologist as a consequence of radiation/chemoradiotherapy therapies for head and neck cancer. A combined anterograde and retrograde dilation procedure (rendezvous procedure) has proven to be a useful surgical intervention in these cases. We assess the long-term swallowing outcomes of this patient cohort including gastrostomy tube (G-tube) reliance, swallowing quality of life, and variables that contribute to improved swallowing outcomes. Retrospective chart review. A retrospective chart review of 18 consecutive patients treated with rendezvous procedures between April 2007 and May 2015 was carried out. Data were collected from chart review and follow-up telephone calls including demographics, surgical/postoperative course details, and Eating Assessment Tool (EAT-10) (swallowing quality of life) scores. The completion rate of the procedure was 83% (15 completed/3 procedures aborted). Average follow-up was 22 months. Thirteen of 15 (86.7%) achieved an oral diet, and 7/15 (46.7%) had their G-tube removed. G-tube-independent (GTI) patients had an average stricture length of 2.33 cm and an average distance from the incisors of 17.4 cm compared to G-tube dependent-(GTD) patients who had an average stricture length of 2.63 cm and 14.6 cm mean distance from the incisors (P = .66 and .0343, respectively). Final EAT-10 scores averaged 20.1 in GTI patients and 33.8 in GTD patients (P = .022). Stricture/incisor distance and EAT-10 scores demonstrated a moderate to strong negative correlation (r = -0.67). Following the endoscopic rendezvous procedure, swallowing outcomes and G-tube status is related to the distance of the stricture from the incisors. 2b Laryngoscope, 127:1388-1391, 2017. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  1. Hashimoto's thyroiditis predicts outcome in intrathyroidal papillary thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, Vincenzo; Sciammarella, Concetta; Chiofalo, Maria Grazia; Gambardella, Claudio; Bellevicine, Claudio; Grasso, Marica; Conzo, Giovanni; Docimo, Giovanni; Botti, Gerardo; Losito, Simona; Troncone, Giancarlo; De Palma, Maurizio; Giacomelli, Laura; Pezzullo, Luciano; Colao, Annamaria; Faggiano, Antongiulio

    2017-09-01

    Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) seems to have favourable prognostic impact on papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but data were obtained analysing all disease stages. Given that HT-related microenvironment involves solely the thyroid, we aimed to assess the relationship between HT, as detected through pathological assessment, and outcome in intrathyroidal PTC. This was a multicentre, retrospective, observational study including 301 PTC with no evidence of extrathyroidal disease. Primary study endpoint was the rate of clinical remission. Auxiliary endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS). HT was detected in 42.5% of the cohort and was associated to female gender, smaller tumour size, lower rate of aggressive PTC variants and less frequent post-surgery radio-iodine administration. HT showed relationship with significantly higher rate of clinical remission ( P  < 0.001, OR 4, 95% CI 1.78-8.94). PTCs with concomitant HT had significantly longer RFS, as compared with non-HT tumours ( P  = 0.004). After adjustment for other parameters affecting disease outcome at univariate analysis (age at diagnosis, histology, tumour size and multifocality), prognostic effect of HT remained significant ( P  = 0.006, OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.39-7.72). To verify whether HT could optimise the identification of PTCs with unfavourable outcome, we assessed the accuracy of 'non-HT status' as negative prognostic marker, demonstrating poor capability of identifying patients not maintaining clinical remission until final follow-up (probability of no clinical remission in PTCs without HT: 21.05%, 95% CI 15.20-27.93). In conclusion, our data show that HT represents an independent prognostic parameter in intrathyroidal PTC, but cannot improve prognostic specificity. © 2017 Society for Endocrinology.

  2. Prediction of stroke thrombolysis outcome using CT brain machine learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bentley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A critical decision-step in the emergency treatment of ischemic stroke is whether or not to administer thrombolysis — a treatment that can result in good recovery, or deterioration due to symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH. Certain imaging features based upon early computerized tomography (CT, in combination with clinical variables, have been found to predict SICH, albeit with modest accuracy. In this proof-of-concept study, we determine whether machine learning of CT images can predict which patients receiving tPA will develop SICH as opposed to showing clinical improvement with no haemorrhage. Clinical records and CT brains of 116 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis were collected retrospectively (including 16 who developed SICH. The sample was split into training (n = 106 and test sets (n = 10, repeatedly for 1760 different combinations. CT brain images acted as inputs into a support vector machine (SVM, along with clinical severity. Performance of the SVM was compared with established prognostication tools (SEDAN and HAT scores; original, or after adaptation to our cohort. Predictive performance, assessed as area under receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC, of the SVM (0.744 compared favourably with that of prognostic scores (original and adapted versions: 0.626–0.720; p < 0.01. The SVM also identified 9 out of 16 SICHs, as opposed to 1–5 using prognostic scores, assuming a 10% SICH frequency (p < 0.001. In summary, machine learning methods applied to acute stroke CT images offer automation, and potentially improved performance, for prediction of SICH following thrombolysis. Larger-scale cohorts, and incorporation of advanced imaging, should be tested with such methods.

  3. Locomotion With Loads: Practical Techniques for Predicting Performance Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Metabolic energy consumption as a function of speed and body size in birds and mammals. J Exp Biol. 97, 1-21. Weyand, P., Smith, B., Puyau, M. and...height, weight (including load), speed, and grade algorithms proposed will allow walking metabolic rates to be predicted to within 6.0 and 12.0% in...gait, metabolism , performance, load carriage 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Unclassified 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME

  4. Predicting outcome in melanoma: where are we now?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Jennings, L

    2009-09-01

    Melanoma incidence continues to rise in most countries. This is of grave concern, given the mortality rate in a relatively young population. Current staging tools are limited in their ability to predict accurately those at risk of metastatic disease, relapse and treatment failure. This overview comprehensively reviews relevant literature, with the focus on the last 5 years, and discusses the current state of traditional and emerging novel methods of staging for melanoma and their effect on prognosis in this population.

  5. Ruptured corpus luteal cyst: Prediction of clinical outcomes with CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Myoung Seok; Moon, Min Hoan; Woo, Hyun Sik; Sung, Chang Kyu; Jeon, Hye Won; Lee, Taek Sang [SMG-SNU Boramae Medical Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the determinant pretreatment CT findings that can predict surgical intervention for patients suffering from corpus luteal cyst rupture with hemoperitoneum. From January 2009 to December 2014, a total of 106 female patients (mean age, 26.1 years; range, 17–44 years) who visited the emergency room of our institute for acute abdominal pain and were subsequently diagnosed with ruptured corpus luteal cyst with hemoperitoneum were included in the retrospective study. The analysis of CT findings included cyst size, cyst shape, sentinel clot sign, ring of fire sign, hemoperitoneum depth, active bleeding in portal phase and attenuation of hemoperitoneum. The comparison of CT findings between the surgery and conservative management groups was performed with the Mann-Whitney U test or chi-square test. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant CT findings in predicting surgical intervention for a ruptured cyst. Comparative analysis revealed that the presence of active bleeding and the hemoperitoneum depth were significantly different between the surgery and conservative management groups and were confirmed as significant CT findings for predicting surgery, with adjusted odds ratio (ORs) of 3.773 and 1.318, respectively (p < 0.01). On the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis for hemoperitoneum depth, the optimal cut-off value was 5.8 cm with 73.7% sensitivity and 58.6% specificity (Az = 0.711, p = 0.004). In cases with a hemoperitoneum depth > 5.8 cm and concurrent active bleeding, the OR for surgery increased to 5.786. The presence of active bleeding and the hemoperitoneum depth on a pretreatment CT scan can be predictive warning signs of surgery for a patient with a ruptured corpus luteal cyst with hemoperitoneum.

  6. Predictive value of sperm morphology and progressively motile sperm count for pregnancy outcomes in intrauterine insemination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemmens, L.; Kos, S.; Beijer, C.; Brinkman, J.W.; Horst, F.A. van der; Hoven, L. van den; Kieslinger, D.C.; Trooyen-van Vrouwerff, N.J.; Wolthuis, A.; Hendriks, J.C.M.; Wetzels, A.M.M.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the value of sperm parameters to predict an ongoing pregnancy outcome in couples treated with intrauterine insemination (IUI), during a methodologically stable period of time. DESIGN: Retrospective, observational study with logistic regression analyses. SETTING: University

  7. Development and validation of outcome prediction models for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage : The SAHIT multinational cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaja, Blessing N R; Saposnik, Gustavo; Lingsma, Hester F.; Macdonald, Erin; Thorpe, Kevin E.; Mamdani, Muhammed; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Molyneux, Andrew; Manoel, Airton Leonardo De Oliveira; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Hanggi, Daniel; Hasan, David M.; Wong, George K C; Etminan, Nima; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Torner, James C.; Schaller, Karl L.; Suarez, Jose I.; Stienen, Martin N.; Vergouwen, Mervyn D.I.; Rinkel, Gabriel J.E.; Spears, Julian; Cusimano, Michael D.; Todd, Michael; Le Roux, Peter; Kirkpatrick, Peter J.; Pickard, John; Van Den Bergh, Walter M.; Murray, Gordon D; Johnston, S. Claiborne; Yamagata, Sen; Mayer, Stephan A.; Schweizer, Tom A.; Macdonald, R. Loch

    2018-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a set of practical prediction tools that reliably estimate the outcome of subarachnoid haemorrhage from ruptured intracranial aneurysms (SAH). Design Cohort study with logistic regression analysis to combine predictors and treatment modality. Setting Subarachnoid

  8. Prepotent response inhibition predicts treatment outcome in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Oord, S.; Geurts, H.M.; Prins, P.J.M.; Emmelkamp, P.M.G.; Oosterlaan, J.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Inhibition deficits, including deficits in prepotent response inhibition and interference control, are core deficits in ADHD. The predictive value of prepotent response inhibition and interference control was assessed for outcome in a 10-week treatment trial with methylphenidate. Methods:

  9. Using acute kidney injury severity and scoring systems to predict outcome in patients with burn injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Kuo

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: Our results revealed that AKI stage has considerable discriminative power for predicting mortality. Compared with other prognostic models, AKI stage is easier to use to assess outcome in patients with severe burn injury.

  10. Ford Class Aircraft Carrier: Poor Outcomes Are the Predictable Consequences of the Prevalent Acquisition Culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    FORD CLASS AIRCRAFT CARRIER Poor Outcomes Are the Predictable Consequences of the Prevalent Acquisition Culture...2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Ford Class Aircraft Carrier: Poor Outcomes Are the Predictable...This Study The Navy set ambitious goals for the Ford -class program, including an array of new technologies and design features that were intended

  11. Prediction of surgical outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy: A novel clinicoradiological prognostic score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi Anil Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Preoperative severity of myelopathy, age, and duration of symptoms have been shown to be highly predictive of the outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy (CCM. The role of radiological parameters is still controversial. Aims: Define the prognostic factors in CCM and formulate a prognostic score to predict the outcome following surgery in CCM. Settings and Design: Retrospective. Materials and Methods: This study included 78 consecutive patients with CCM treated surgically. The modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA scale was used to quantify severity of myelopathy at admission and at 12-month follow-up. The outcome was defined as "good" if the patient had mJOA score ≥16 and "poor" if the score was <16. Age, sex, duration of symptoms, comorbidities, intrinsic hand muscle wasting (IHMW, diagnosis, surgical technique, Torg ratio, instability on dynamic radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI signal intensity changes were assessed. Statistics: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS (version 20.0 was used for statistical analysis. The association was assessed amongst variables using logistic regression analysis. Parameters having a statistically significant correlation with the outcome were included in formulating a prognostic score. Results: Severity of myelopathy, IHMW, age, duration, diabetes, and instability on radiographs were predictive of the outcome with a P value <0.01. Genders, diagnosis, surgical procedure, Torg ratio, and intensity changes on MRI were not significantly related to the outcome. A 8-point scoring system was devised incorporating the significant clinicoradiological parameters, and it was found that nearly all patients (97.82% with a score below 5 had good outcome and all patients (100% with a score above 5 had poor outcome. The outcome is difficult to predict with a score of 5. Conclusions: Clinical parameters are better predictors of the outcome as compared to radiological findings

  12. Early functional MRI activation predicts motor outcome after ischemic stroke: a longitudinal, multimodal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Juan; Yang, Fang; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Hu, Jingze; Xu, Qiang; Hu, Jianping; Zeng, Fanyong; Lu, Guangming; Liu, Xinfeng

    2018-05-15

    An accurate prediction of long term outcome after stroke is urgently required to provide early individualized neurorehabilitation. This study aimed to examine the added value of early neuroimaging measures and identify the best approaches for predicting motor outcome after stroke. This prospective study involved 34 first-ever ischemic stroke patients (time since stroke: 1-14 days) with upper limb impairment. All patients underwent baseline multimodal assessments that included clinical (age, motor impairment), neurophysiological (motor-evoked potentials, MEP) and neuroimaging (diffusion tensor imaging and motor task-based fMRI) measures, and also underwent reassessment 3 months after stroke. Bivariate analysis and multivariate linear regression models were used to predict the motor scores (Fugl-Meyer assessment, FMA) at 3 months post-stroke. With bivariate analysis, better motor outcome significantly correlated with (1) less initial motor impairment and disability, (2) less corticospinal tract injury, (3) the initial presence of MEPs, (4) stronger baseline motor fMRI activations. In multivariate analysis, incorporating neuroimaging data improved the predictive accuracy relative to only clinical and neurophysiological assessments. Baseline fMRI activation in SMA was an independent predictor of motor outcome after stroke. A multimodal model incorporating fMRI and clinical measures best predicted the motor outcome following stroke. fMRI measures obtained early after stroke provided independent prediction of long-term motor outcome.

  13. Does motivation predict outcome of pelvic floor muscle retraining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te West, Nevine I D; Parkin, Katrina; Hayes, Wendy; Costa, Daniel S J; Kasparian, Nadine A; Moore, Kate H

    2017-02-01

    Although pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) is effective for stress urinary incontinence (SUI), patients need to be motivated to obtain cure. An instrument to assess motivation in such patients was published in 2009: the Incontinence Treatment Motivation Questionnaire (ITMQ). The ITMQ consists of five domains: (i) positive attitudes toward PFMT; (ii) reasons for not doing PFMT; (iii) difficulties living with incontinence; (iv) desire for treatment; and (v) incontinence severity influencing motivation. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between ITMQ scores and treatment success. After referral for PFMT, women with SUI completed the ITMQ. Pre- and post-treatment outcomes were the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire (ICIQ) score and a 24-hr pad test. Correlations between ITMQ scores and baseline, as well as post-treatment change in ICIQ scores and pad test results were examined. Additionally, the demographics of non-participants, participants, and patients lost to follow-up were compared. Of 85 recruits, 18 did not complete the ITMQ, 14 were lost to follow-up, thus 53 completed the PFMT programme and undertook either one or both outcomes. Pre-treatment, severity on ICIQ correlated with total ITMQ (ρ = 0.33, P = 0.01). Post-treatment change in pad test was inversely correlated with Domain 2 (ρ = -0.33, P = 0.03). The pre-treatment severity of incontinence was significantly associated with motivation for treatment. Unfortunately, post-treatment change correlated with only one domain of the questionnaire. Further modification of the ITMQ is envisaged. Neurourol. Urodynam. 36:316-321, 2017. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Prediction of delayed cerebral ischemia, rebleeding, and outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hijdra, A.; van Gijn, J.; Nagelkerke, N. J.; Vermeulen, M.; van Crevel, H.

    1988-01-01

    Using logistic regression, we analyzed the predictive value of a number of entry variables with respect to the outcome variables delayed cerebral ischemia, rebleeding, and poor outcome (death or severe disability) in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. The entry variables were clinical

  15. Pre-delivery fibrinogen predicts adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes in patients with placental abruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liangcheng; Matsunaga, Shigetaka; Mikami, Yukiko; Takai, Yasushi; Terui, Katsuo; Seki, Hiroyuki

    2016-07-01

    Placental abruption is a severe obstetric complication of pregnancy that can cause disseminated intravascular coagulation and progress to massive post-partum hemorrhage. Coagulation disorder due to extreme consumption of fibrinogen is considered the main pathogenesis of disseminated intravascular coagulation in patients with placental abruption. The present study sought to determine if the pre-delivery fibrinogen level could predict adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes in patients with placental abruption. This retrospective medical chart review was conducted in a center for maternal, fetal, and neonatal medicine in Japan with 61 patients with placental abruption. Fibrinogen levels prior to delivery were collected and evaluated for the prediction of maternal and neonatal outcomes. The main outcome measures for maternal outcomes were disseminated intravascular coagulation and hemorrhage, and the main outcome measures for neonatal outcomes were Apgar score at 5 min, umbilical artery pH, and stillbirth. The receiver-operator curve and multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that fibrinogen significantly predicted overt disseminated intravascular coagulation and the requirement of ≥6 red blood cell units, ≥10 fresh frozen plasma units, and ≥20 fresh frozen plasma units for transfusion. Moderate hemorrhage occurred in 71.5% of patients with a decrease in fibrinogen levels to 155 mg/dL. Fibrinogen could also predict neonatal outcomes. Umbilical artery pH neonatal outcomes with placental abruption. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  16. Satisfaction of psychotic patients with care and its value to predict outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, J. M.; Schirmbeck, N. F.; Van Tricht, M. J.; de Haan, L.

    2018-01-01

    Background: A key indicator of quality of treatment from the patient's perspective is expressed by satisfaction with care. Our aim was to (i) explore satisfaction and its relation to clinical outcome measures; and (ii) explore the predictive value of satisfaction for the course of outcomes over

  17. Mothers' labeling responses to infants' gestures predict vocabulary outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Janet; Masur, Elise Frank

    2015-11-01

    Twenty-nine infants aged 1;1 and their mothers were videotaped while interacting with toys for 18 minutes. Six experimental stimuli were presented to elicit infant communicative bids in two communicative intent contexts - proto-declarative and proto-imperative. Mothers' verbal responses to infants' gestural and non-gestural communicative bids were coded for object and action labels. Relations between maternal labeling responses and infants' vocabularies at 1;1 and 1;5 were examined. Mothers' labeling responses to infants' gestural communicative bids were concurrently and predictively related to infants' vocabularies, whereas responses to non-gestural communicative bids were not. Mothers' object labeling following gestures in the proto-declarative context mediated the association from infants' gesturing in the proto-declarative context to concurrent noun lexicons and was the strongest predictor of subsequent noun lexicons. Mothers' action labeling after infants' gestural bids in the proto-imperative context predicted infants' acquisition of action words at 1;5. Findings show that mothers' responsive labeling explain specific relations between infants' gestures and their vocabulary development.

  18. Phototherapy of the newborn: a predictive model for the outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossamu Osaku, Nelson; Silverio Lopes, Heitor

    2005-01-01

    Jaundice in one of the most common problems of the newborn. In most cases, jaundice is considered a physiological transient situation, but sometimes it can lead to death or serious injuries for the survivors. For decades, phototherapy has been used as the main method for prevention and treatment of hyperbilirubinaemia of the newborn. This work aims at finding a predictive model for the decrement of blood bilirubin followed conventional phototherapy. Data from 90 patients were collected and used in the multiple regression method. A rigorous statistical analysis was done in order to guarantee a correct and valid model. The obtained model was able to explain 78% of the variation of the dependent variable We found that it is possible to predict the total sugar bilirubin of the patient under phototherapy by knowing its birth weight, bilirubin level at the beginning of treatment, duration of exposition, and irradiance. Besides, it is possible to infer the time necessary for a given decrement of bilirubin, under approximately constant irradiance.

  19. Prediction of Tissue Outcome and Assessment of Treatment Effect in Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Deep Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne; Hansen, Mikkel Bo; Tietze, Anna

    2018-01-01

    of automatically identifying and combining acute imaging features to accurately predict final lesion volume. METHODS: Using acute magnetic resonance imaging, we developed and trained a deep convolutional neural network (CNNdeep) to predict final imaging outcome. A total of 222 patients were included, of which 187...

  20. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  1. The Role of Teachers' Support in Predicting Students' Motivation and Achievement Outcomes in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Solmon, Melinda A.; Gu, Xiangli

    2012-01-01

    Examining how teachers' beliefs and behaviors predict students' motivation and achievement outcomes in physical education is an area of increasing research interest. Guided by the expectancy-value model and self-determination theory, the major purpose of this study was to examine the predictive strength of teachers' autonomy, competence, and…

  2. Hypoalbuminaemia predicts outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempny, Aleksander; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Alonso-Gonzalez, Rafael; Uebing, Anselm; Rafiq, Isma; Li, Wei; Swan, Lorna; Hooper, James; Donovan, Jackie; Wort, Stephen J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos

    2015-01-01

    Background In patients with acquired heart failure, hypoalbuminaemia is associated with increased risk of death. The prevalence of hypoproteinaemia and hypoalbuminaemia and their relation to outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) remains, however, unknown. Methods Data on patients with ACHD who underwent blood testing in our centre within the last 14 years were collected. The relation between laboratory, clinical or demographic parameters at baseline and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 2886 patients with ACHD were included. Mean age was 33.3 years (23.6–44.7) and 50.1% patients were men. Median plasma albumin concentration was 41.0 g/L (38.0–44.0), whereas hypoalbuminaemia (disease complexity, hypoalbuminaemia remained a significant predictor of death. Conclusions Hypoalbuminaemia is common in patients with ACHD and is associated with a threefold increased risk of risk of death. Hypoalbuminaemia, therefore, should be included in risk-stratification algorithms as it may assist management decisions and timing of interventions in the growing ACHD population. PMID:25736048

  3. Toddler hand preference trajectories predict 3-year language outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Eliza L; Gonzalez, Sandy L; Coxe, Stefany; Campbell, Julie M; Marcinowski, Emily C; Michel, George F

    2017-11-01

    A growing body of work suggests that early motor experience affects development in unexpected domains. In the current study, children's hand preference for role-differentiated bimanual manipulation (RDBM) was measured at monthly intervals from 18 to 24 months of age (N = 90). At 3 years of age, children's language ability was assessed using the Preschool Language Scales 5th edition (PLS™-5). Three distinct RDBM hand preference trajectories were identified using latent class growth analysis: (1) children with a left hand preference but a moderate amount of right hand use; (2) children with a right hand preference but a moderate amount of left hand use; and (3) children with a right hand preference and only a mild amount of left hand use. Stability over time within all three trajectories indicated that children did not change hand use patterns from 18 to 24 months. Children with the greatest amount of preferred (i.e., right) hand use demonstrated higher expressive language scores compared to children in both trajectories with moderate levels of non-preferred hand use. Children with the greatest amount of right hand use also had higher scores for receptive language compared to children with a right hand preference but moderate left hand use. Results support that consistency in handedness as measured by the amount of preferred hand use is related to distal language outcomes in development. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Predicting outcome in term neonates with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy using simplified MR criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jyoti, Rajeev; O'Neil, Ross

    2006-01-01

    MRI is an established investigation in the evaluation of neonates with suspected hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE). However, its role as a predictor of neurodevelopmental outcome remains complex. To establish reproducible simplified MR criteria and evaluate their role in predicting neurodevelopmental outcome in term neonates with HIE. Term neonates with suspected HIE had MRI at 7-10 days of age. MR scans were interpreted according to new simplified criteria by two radiologists blinded to the clinical course and outcome. The new simplified criteria allocated grade 1 to cases with no central and less than 10% peripheral change, grade 2 to those with less than 30% central and/or 10-30% peripheral area change, and grade 3 to those with more than 30% central or peripheral change. MRI changes were compared with clinical neurodevelopmental outcome evaluated prospectively at 1 year of age. Neurodevelopmental outcome was based upon the DQ score (revised Griffith's) and cerebral palsy on neurological assessment. Of 20 subjects, all those showing severe (grade 3) MR changes (35%) died or had poor neurodevelopmental outcome. Subjects with a normal MR scan or with scans showing only mild (grade 1) MR changes (55%) had normal outcomes. One subject showing moderate (grade 2) changes on MRI had a moderate outcome (5%), while another had an atypical pattern of MR changes with a normal outcome (5%). Assessment of full-term neonates with suspected HIE using the simplified MR criteria is highly predictive of neurodevelopmental outcome. (orig.)

  5. Predicting outcome in term neonates with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy using simplified MR criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyoti, Rajeev; O' Neil, Ross [Canberra Hospital, Medical Imaging, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2006-01-01

    MRI is an established investigation in the evaluation of neonates with suspected hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE). However, its role as a predictor of neurodevelopmental outcome remains complex. To establish reproducible simplified MR criteria and evaluate their role in predicting neurodevelopmental outcome in term neonates with HIE. Term neonates with suspected HIE had MRI at 7-10 days of age. MR scans were interpreted according to new simplified criteria by two radiologists blinded to the clinical course and outcome. The new simplified criteria allocated grade 1 to cases with no central and less than 10% peripheral change, grade 2 to those with less than 30% central and/or 10-30% peripheral area change, and grade 3 to those with more than 30% central or peripheral change. MRI changes were compared with clinical neurodevelopmental outcome evaluated prospectively at 1 year of age. Neurodevelopmental outcome was based upon the DQ score (revised Griffith's) and cerebral palsy on neurological assessment. Of 20 subjects, all those showing severe (grade 3) MR changes (35%) died or had poor neurodevelopmental outcome. Subjects with a normal MR scan or with scans showing only mild (grade 1) MR changes (55%) had normal outcomes. One subject showing moderate (grade 2) changes on MRI had a moderate outcome (5%), while another had an atypical pattern of MR changes with a normal outcome (5%). Assessment of full-term neonates with suspected HIE using the simplified MR criteria is highly predictive of neurodevelopmental outcome. (orig.)

  6. Management outcome of acute urinary retention: model of prediction.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Daly, Padraig

    2012-01-31

    OBJECTIVES: To assess for predictors of outcome in patients presenting with acute urinary retention (AUR). METHODS: A study was performed in our unit to evaluate trial without catheter (TWOC) and successive management. We assessed for predictors of surgical or medical management, which included: age, volume drained at time of catheterisation, cause of retention, serum creatinine, success of trial of voiding, co-morbidities, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and prostate size on digital rectal examination (DRE). RESULTS: 72 men were entered into the study over an 18-month period: 27 had a successful first TWOC, 20 patients had a second TWOC, and 6 were successful. In total, 31 of the 33 patients with a successful TWOC remained on alpha-blockers without a further episode of AUR within a minimum of 6 months\\' follow-up. Patients failing TWOC were managed by transurethral resection of the prostate (n = 22), long-term catheterisation (n = 15) or prostatic stents (n = 3), and 1 patient died prior to intervention. Three predictors were significant on multivariate analysis: PSA (>2.9 ng\\/ml), prostate size on DRE (large) and volume drained at time of catheterisation (>or=1,000 ml). CONCLUSION: Patients with elevated PSA (>2.9 ng\\/ml), a large prostate size on DRE and a volume drained at time of catheterisation >1,000 ml are best managed by surgical intervention, while those with volumes drained at time of catheterisation of <1,000 ml, a PSA

  7. Migration Phenotype of Brain-Cancer Cells Predicts Patient Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris L. Smith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Glioblastoma multiforme is a heterogeneous and infiltrative cancer with dismal prognosis. Studying the migratory behavior of tumor-derived cell populations can be informative, but it places a high premium on the precision of in vitro methods and the relevance of in vivo conditions. In particular, the analysis of 2D cell migration may not reflect invasion into 3D extracellular matrices in vivo. Here, we describe a method that allows time-resolved studies of primary cell migration with single-cell resolution on a fibrillar surface that closely mimics in vivo 3D migration. We used this platform to screen 14 patient-derived glioblastoma samples. We observed that the migratory phenotype of a subset of cells in response to platelet-derived growth factor was highly predictive of tumor location and recurrence in the clinic. Therefore, migratory phenotypic classifiers analyzed at the single-cell level in a patient-specific way can provide high diagnostic and prognostic value for invasive cancers.

  8. Predictability of a favorable outcome in anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deter, H C; Schellberg, D; Köpp, W; Friederich, H C; Herzog, W

    2005-03-01

    In a long-term follow-up of anorexia nervosa (AN) patients, somatic, psychological and social variables at clinical presentation should be investigated using a multilevel approach. This study isolated predictors known from the literature over longer time periods and carried out a separate investigation of predictors in a sample of 81 AN patients of the Heidelberg-Mannheim study over a mean period of 12 years (range 9-19 years). Separate hierarchic regression analyses on the basis of the course of the Morgan-Russell categories were calculated for four individually recorded areas: anamnestic, psychological, somatic and social data sets. Age at the onset of the disease, purging behavior, low serum albumin, high glutamic-oxalo acetic transaminase (GOT) psychopathology (ANSS) and social pathology had the highest predictive value qualities. In survival analysis overall assessment of all six main predictors at clinical presentation could differentiate all patients who recovered from those who remained ill (log-rank test P = 0.019). A small number of variables were important for detecting a good or poor long-term course of AN. At onset of the disease, it seems necessary to evaluate these psychological, somatic and social predictors.

  9. Accept or Reject? Predicting Ideation Outcomes through Enterprise Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozaidi Nik Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Implementing social media in the workplace may make it easier for employees to participate in knowledge sharing activities such as Q&A and ideation. However, vetting the quality of answers and ideas becomes more complex when anyone in the company can contribute. Research on the use of social media for Q&A has shown that certain characteristics and reputation algorithms can help determine the best answers. Less is known about the ideation process and the way it plays out in social media. This paper explores the use of enterprise social media (ESM for ideation by employees in a large Russian organization distributed across nine time zones. In particular, we explore which characteristics of both ideas and their contributors predict whether ideas get accepted or rejected. Our analysis is based on logistic regression analysis of a sample of 488 ideas contributed in an ESM tool used in the organization as well as a content analysis of the types of ideas generated. Our results suggest that rather than being truly democratic and decentralized, ideation in ESM is driven by those in (or proximate to positions of organizational power.

  10. Do Patient Characteristics Predict Outcome of Psychodynamic Psychotherapy for Social Anxiety Disorder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jörg Wiltink

    Full Text Available Little is known about patient characteristics as predictors for outcome in manualized short term psychodynamic psychotherapy (PDT. No study has addressed which patient variables predict outcome of PDT for social anxiety disorder.In the largest multicenter trial on psychotherapy of social anxiety (SA to date comparing cognitive therapy, PDT and wait list condition N = 230 patients were assigned to receive PDT, of which N = 166 completed treatment. Treatment outcome was assessed based on diverse parameters such as endstate functioning, remission, response, and drop-out. The relationship between patient characteristics (demographic variables, mental co-morbidity, personality, interpersonal problems and outcome was analysed using logistic and linear regressions.Pre-treatment SA predicted up to 39 percent of variance of outcome. Only few additional baseline characteristics predicted better treatment outcome (namely, lower comorbidity and interpersonal problems with a limited proportion of incremental variance (5.5 to 10 percent, while, e.g., shame, self-esteem or harm avoidance did not.We argue that the central importance of pre-treatment symptom severity for predicting outcomes should advocate alternative treatment strategies (e.g. longer treatments, combination of psychotherapy and medication in those who are most disturbed. Given the relatively small amount of variance explained by the other patient characteristics, process variables and patient-therapist interaction should additionally be taken into account in future research.Controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN53517394.

  11. The Use of Artificial Neural Networks in Prediction of Congenital CMV Outcome from Sequence Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravit Arav-Boger

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A large number of CMV strains has been reported to circulate in the human population, and the biological significance of these strains is currently an active area of research. The analysis of complex genetic information may be limited using conventional phylogenetic techniques. We constructed artificial neural networks to determine their feasibility in predicting the outcome of congenital CMV disease (defined as presence of CMV symptoms at birth based on two data sets: 54 sequences of CMV gene UL144 obtained from 54 amniotic fluids of women who contracted acute CMV infection during their pregnancy, and 80 sequences of 4 genes (US28, UL144, UL146 and UL147 obtained from urine, saliva or blood of 20 congenitally infected infants that displayed different outcomes at birth. When data from all four genes was used in the 20-infants’ set, the artificial neural network model accurately identified outcome in 90% of cases. While US28 and UL147 had low yield in predicting outcome, UL144 and UL146 predicted outcome in 80% and 85% respectively when used separately. The model identified specific nucleotide positions that were highly relevant to prediction of outcome. The artificial neural network classified genotypes in agreement with classic phylogenetic analysis. We suggest that artificial neural networks can accurately and efficiently analyze sequences obtained from larger cohorts to determine specific outcomes.The ANN training and analysis code is commercially available from Optimal Neural Informatics (Pikesville, MD.

  12. Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

    2017-08-30

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

  13. Neurophysiological prediction of neurological good and poor outcome in post-anoxic coma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grippo, A; Carrai, R; Scarpino, M; Spalletti, M; Lanzo, G; Cossu, C; Peris, A; Valente, S; Amantini, A

    2017-06-01

    Investigation of the utility of association between electroencephalogram (EEG) and somatosensory-evoked potentials (SEPs) for the prediction of neurological outcome in comatose patients resuscitated after cardiac arrest (CA) treated with therapeutic hypothermia, according to different recording times after CA. Glasgow Coma Scale, EEG and SEPs performed at 12, 24 and 48-72 h after CA were assessed in 200 patients. Outcome was evaluated by Cerebral Performance Category 6 months after CA. Within 12 h after CA, grade 1 EEG predicted good outcome and bilaterally absent (BA) SEPs predicted poor outcome. Because grade 1 EEG and BA-SEPs were never found in the same patient, the recording of both EEG and SEPs allows us to correctly prognosticate a greater number of patients with respect to the use of a single test within 12 h after CA. At 48-72 h after CA, both grade 2 EEG and BA-SEPs predicted poor outcome with FPR=0.0%. When these neurophysiological patterns are both present in the same patient, they confirm and strengthen their prognostic value, but because they also occurred independently in eight patients, poor outcome is predictable in a greater number of patients. The combination of EEG/SEP findings allows prediction of good and poor outcome (within 12 h after CA) and of poor outcome (after 48-72 h). Recording of EEG and SEPs in the same patients allows always an increase in the number of cases correctly classified, and an increase of the reliability of prognostication in a single patient due to concordance of patterns. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Combining Spot Sign and Intracerebral Hemorrhage Score to Estimate Functional Outcome: Analysis From the PREDICT Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Hauke; Huynh, Thien J; Demchuk, Andrew M; Dowlatshahi, Dar; Rodriguez-Luna, David; Silva, Yolanda; Aviv, Richard; Dzialowski, Imanuel

    2018-06-01

    The intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is the most commonly used grading scale for stratifying functional outcome in patients with acute ICH. We sought to determine whether a combination of the ICH score and the computed tomographic angiography spot sign may improve outcome prediction in the cohort of a prospective multicenter hemorrhage trial. Prospectively collected data from 241 patients from the observational PREDICT study (Prediction of Hematoma Growth and Outcome in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage Using the CT-Angiography Spot Sign) were analyzed. Functional outcome at 3 months was dichotomized using the modified Rankin Scale (0-3 versus 4-6). Performance of (1) the ICH score and (2) the spot sign ICH score-a scoring scale combining ICH score and spot sign number-was tested. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that ICH score (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.8) and spot sign number (n=1: odds ratio, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-7.4; n>1: odds ratio, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-17.1) were independently predictive of functional outcome at 3 months with similar odds ratios. Prediction of functional outcome was not significantly different using the spot sign ICH score compared with the ICH score alone (spot sign ICH score area under curve versus ICH score area under curve: P =0.14). In the PREDICT cohort, a prognostic score adding the computed tomographic angiography-based spot sign to the established ICH score did not improve functional outcome prediction compared with the ICH score. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  15. Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Neda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

  16. Comparison of statistical and clinical predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas D Thompson

    Full Text Available To determine whether the predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke made at the bedside using a doctor's clinical experience were more or less accurate than the predictions made by clinical prediction models (CPMs.A prospective cohort study of nine hundred and thirty one ischemic stroke patients recruited consecutively at the outpatient, inpatient and emergency departments of the Western General Hospital, Edinburgh between 2002 and 2005. Doctors made informal predictions of six month functional outcome on the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS. Patients were followed up at six months with a validated postal questionnaire. For each patient we calculated the absolute predicted risk of death or dependence (OHS≥3 using five previously described CPMs. The specificity of a doctor's informal predictions of OHS≥3 at six months was good 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.97 and similar to CPMs (range 0.94 to 0.96; however the sensitivity of both informal clinical predictions 0.44 (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.49 and clinical prediction models (range 0.38 to 0.45 was poor. The prediction of the level of disability after stroke was similar for informal clinical predictions (ordinal c-statistic 0.74 with 95% CI 0.72 to 0.76 and CPMs (range 0.69 to 0.75. No patient or clinician characteristic affected the accuracy of informal predictions, though predictions were more accurate in outpatients.CPMs are at least as good as informal clinical predictions in discriminating between good and bad functional outcome after ischemic stroke. The place of these models in clinical practice has yet to be determined.

  17. Long-term outcomes following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding: postoperative psychological sequelae predict outcome at 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholtz, Samantha; Bidlake, Louise; Morgan, John; Fiennes, Alberic; El-Etar, Ashraf; Lacey, John Hubert; McCluskey, Sara

    2007-09-01

    NICE guidelines state that patients with psychological contra-indications should not be considered for bariatric surgery, including Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB) surgery as treatment of morbid obesity, although no consistent correlation between psychiatric illness and long-term outcome in LAGB has been established. This is to our knowledge the first study to evaluate long-term outcomes in LAGB for a full range of DSM-IV defined psychiatric and eating disorders, and forms part of a research portfolio developed by the authors aimed at defining psychological predictors of bariatric surgery in the short-, medium- and long-term. Case notes of 37 subjects operated on between April 1997 and June 2000, who had undergone structured clinical interview during pre-surgical assessment to yield diagnoses of mental and eating disorders according to DSM-IV criteria were analyzed according to a set of operationally defined criteria. Statistical analysis was carried out to compare those with a poor outcome and those considered to have a good outcome in terms of psychiatric profile. In this group of mainly female, Caucasian subjects, ranging in age from 27 to 60 years, one-third were diagnosed with a mental disorder according to DSM-IV criteria. The development of postoperative DSM-IV defined binge eating disorder (BED) or depression strongly predicted poor surgical outcome, but pre-surgical psychiatric factors alone did not. Although pre-surgical psychiatric assessment alone cannot predict outcome, an absence of preoperative psychiatric illness should not reassure surgeons who should be mindful of postoperative psychiatric sequelae, particularly BED. The importance of providing an integrated biopsychosocial model of care in bariatric teams is highlighted.

  18. What Factors are Predictive of Patient-reported Outcomes? A Prospective Study of 337 Shoulder Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsen, Frederick A; Russ, Stacy M; Vu, Phuong T; Hsu, Jason E; Lucas, Robert M; Comstock, Bryan A

    2016-11-01

    Although shoulder arthroplasties generally are effective in improving patients' comfort and function, the results are variable for reasons that are not well understood. We posed two questions: (1) What factors are associated with better 2-year outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty? (2) What are the sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values of a multivariate predictive model for better outcome? Three hundred thirty-nine patients having a shoulder arthroplasty (hemiarthroplasty, arthroplasty for cuff tear arthropathy, ream and run arthroplasty, total shoulder or reverse total shoulder arthroplasty) between August 24, 2010 and December 31, 2012 consented to participate in this prospective study. Two patients were excluded because they were missing baseline variables. Forty-three patients were missing 2-year data. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined the relationship of baseline patient, shoulder, and surgical characteristics to a "better" outcome, defined as an improvement of at least 30% of the maximal possible improvement in the Simple Shoulder Test. The results were used to develop a predictive model, the accuracy of which was tested using a 10-fold cross-validation. After controlling for potentially relevant confounding variables, the multivariate analysis showed that the factors significantly associated with better outcomes were American Society of Anesthesiologists Class I (odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.03-3.65; p = 0.041), shoulder problem not related to work (OR, 5.36; 95% CI, 2.15-13.37; p factors listed above. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve generated from the cross-validated enhanced predictive model was 0.79 (generally values of 0.7 to 0.8 are considered fair and values of 0.8 to 0.9 are considered good). The false-positive fraction and the true-positive fraction depended on the cutoff probability selected (ie, the selected probability above which the prediction would be classified as

  19. Predicting the Outcome of NBA Playoffs Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

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    Ge Cheng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the outcome of National Basketball Association (NBA matches poses a challenging problem of interest to the research community as well as the general public. In this article, we formalize the problem of predicting NBA game results as a classification problem and apply the principle of Maximum Entropy to construct an NBA Maximum Entropy (NBAME model that fits to discrete statistics for NBA games, and then predict the outcomes of NBA playoffs using the model. Our results reveal that the model is able to predict the winning team with 74.4% accuracy, outperforming other classical machine learning algorithms that could only afford a maximum prediction accuracy of 70.6% in the experiments that we performed.

  20. ASTRAL, DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict stroke outcome more accurately than physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, G; Gioulekas, F; Papavasileiou, V; Strbian, D; Michel, P

    2016-11-01

    ASTRAL, SEDAN and DRAGON scores are three well-validated scores for stroke outcome prediction. Whether these scores predict stroke outcome more accurately compared with physicians interested in stroke was investigated. Physicians interested in stroke were invited to an online anonymous survey to provide outcome estimates in randomly allocated structured scenarios of recent real-life stroke patients. Their estimates were compared to scores' predictions in the same scenarios. An estimate was considered accurate if it was within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcome. In all, 244 participants from 32 different countries responded assessing 720 real scenarios and 2636 outcomes. The majority of physicians' estimates were inaccurate (1422/2636, 53.9%). 400 (56.8%) of physicians' estimates about the percentage probability of 3-month modified Rankin score (mRS) > 2 were accurate compared with 609 (86.5%) of ASTRAL score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON score estimates (P DRAGON and SEDAN scores predict outcome of acute ischaemic stroke patients with higher accuracy compared to physicians interested in stroke. © 2016 EAN.

  1. Regional brain morphometry predicts memory rehabilitation outcome after traumatic brain injury

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    Gary E Strangman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive deficits following traumatic brain injury (TBI commonly include difficulties with memory, attention, and executive dysfunction. These deficits are amenable to cognitive rehabilitation, but optimally selecting rehabilitation programs for individual patients remains a challenge. Recent methods for quantifying regional brain morphometry allow for automated quantification of tissue volumes in numerous distinct brain structures. We hypothesized that such quantitative structural information could help identify individuals more or less likely to benefit from memory rehabilitation. Fifty individuals with TBI of all severities who reported having memory difficulties first underwent structural MRI scanning. They then participated in a 12 session memory rehabilitation program emphasizing internal memory strategies (I-MEMS. Primary outcome measures (HVLT, RBMT were collected at the time of the MRI scan, immediately following therapy, and again at one month post-therapy. Regional brain volumes were used to predict outcome, adjusting for standard predictors (e.g., injury severity, age, education, pretest scores. We identified several brain regions that provided significant predictions of rehabilitation outcome, including the volume of the hippocampus, the lateral prefrontal cortex, the thalamus, and several subregions of the cingulate cortex. The prediction range of regional brain volumes were in some cases nearly equal in magnitude to prediction ranges provided by pretest scores on the outcome variable. We conclude that specific cerebral networks including these regions may contribute to learning during I-MEMS rehabilitation, and suggest that morphometric measures may provide substantial predictive value for rehabilitation outcome in other cognitive interventions as well.

  2. Methodological Challenges in Examining the Impact of Healthcare Predictive Analytics on Nursing-Sensitive Patient Outcomes.

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    Jeffery, Alvin D

    2015-06-01

    The expansion of real-time analytic abilities within current electronic health records has led to innovations in predictive modeling and clinical decision support systems. However, the ability of these systems to influence patient outcomes is currently unknown. Even though nurses are the largest profession within the healthcare workforce, little research has been performed to explore the impact of clinical decision support on their decisions and the patient outcomes associated with them. A scoping literature review explored the impact clinical decision support systems containing healthcare predictive analytics have on four nursing-sensitive patient outcomes (pressure ulcers, failure to rescue, falls, and infections). While many articles discussed variable selection and predictive model development/validation, only four articles examined the impact on patient outcomes. The novelty of predictive analytics and the inherent methodological challenges in studying clinical decision support impact are likely responsible for this paucity of literature. Major methodological challenges include (1) multilevel nature of intervention, (2) treatment fidelity, and (3) adequacy of clinicians' subsequent behavior. There is currently insufficient evidence to demonstrate efficacy of healthcare predictive analytics-enhanced clinical decision support systems on nursing-sensitive patient outcomes. Innovative research methods and a greater emphasis on studying this phenomenon are needed.

  3. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-05-15

    We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

  4. Developing a risk prediction model for the functional outcome after hip arthroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Patrick; Röling, Maarten A; Mathijssen, Nina M C; Hannink, Gerjon; Bloem, Rolf M

    2018-04-19

    Hip arthroscopic treatment is not equally beneficial for every patient undergoing this procedure. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a clinical prediction model for functional outcome after surgery based on preoperative factors. Prospective data was collected on a cohort of 205 patients having undergone hip arthroscopy between 2011 and 2015. Demographic and clinical variables and patient reported outcome (PRO) scores were collected, and considered as potential predictors. Successful outcome was defined as either a Hip Outcome Score (HOS)-ADL score of over 80% or improvement of 23%, defined by the minimal clinical important difference, 1 year after surgery. The prediction model was developed using backward logistic regression. Regression coefficients were converted into an easy to use prediction rule. The analysis included 203 patients, of which 74% had a successful outcome. Female gender (OR: 0.37 (95% CI 0.17-0.83); p = 0.02), pincer impingement (OR: 0.47 (95% CI 0.21-1.09); p = 0.08), labral tear (OR: 0.46 (95% CI 0.20-1.06); p = 0.07), HOS-ADL score (IQR OR: 2.01 (95% CI 0.99-4.08); p = 0.05), WHOQOL physical (IQR OR: 0.43 (95% CI 0.22-0.87); p = 0.02) and WHOQOL psychological (IQR OR: 2.40 (95% CI 1.38-4.18); p = prediction model of successful functional outcome 1 year after hip arthroscopy. The model's discriminating accuracy turned out to be fair, as 71% (95% CI: 64-80%) of the patients were classified correctly. The developed prediction model can predict the functional outcome of patients that are considered for a hip arthroscopic intervention, containing six easy accessible preoperative risk factors. The model can be further improved trough external validation and/or adding additional potential predictors.

  5. Is the AIMS65 score useful in predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding?

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    Jung, Sung Hoon; Oh, Jung Hwan; Lee, Hye Yeon; Jeong, Joon Won; Go, Se Eun; You, Chan Ran; Jeon, Eun Jung; Choi, Sang Wook

    2014-02-21

    To evaluate the applicability of AIMS65 scores in predicting outcomes of peptic ulcer bleeding. This was a retrospective study in a single center between January 2006 and December 2011. We enrolled 522 patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage who visited the emergency room. High-risk patients were regarded as those who had re-bleeding within 30 d from the first endoscopy as well as those who died within 30 d of visiting the Emergency room. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed, and the AIMS65 score was used to retrospectively predict the high-risk patients. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed. The poor outcome group comprised 28 patients [male: 23 (82.1%) vs female: 5 (10.7%)] while the good outcome group included 121 patients [male: 93 (76.9%) vs female: 28 (23.1%)]. The mean age in each group was not significantly different. The mean serum albumin levels in the poor outcome group were slightly lower than those in the good outcome group (P = 0.072). For the prediction of poor outcome, the AIMS65 score had a sensitivity of 35.5% (95%CI: 27.0-44.8) and a specificity of 82.1% (95%CI: 63.1-93.9) at a score of 0. The AIMS65 score was insufficient for predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding (area under curve = 0.571; 95%CI: 0.49-0.65). The AIMS65 score may therefore not be suitable for predicting clinical outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding. Low albumin levels may be a risk factor associated with high mortality in peptic ulcer bleeding.

  6. Comparison of TMS and DTT for predicting motor outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Sung Ho; Ahn, Sang Ho; Sakong, Joon; Byun, Woo Mok; Choi, Byung Yun; Chang, Chul Hoon; Bai, Daiseg; Son, Su Min

    2010-03-15

    TMS (transcranial magnetic stimulation) and DTT (diffusion tensor tractography) have different advantages in evaluating stroke patients. TMS has good clinical accessibility and economical benefit. On the contrary, DTT has a unique advantage to visualize neural tracts three-dimensionally although it requires an expensive and large MRI machine. Many studies have demonstrated that TMS and DTT have predictive values for motor outcome in stroke patients. However, there has been no study on the comparison of these two evaluation tools. In the current study, we compared the abilities of TMS and DTT to predict upper motor outcome in patients with ICH (intracerebral hemorrhage). Fifty-three consecutive patients with severe motor weakness were evaluated by TMS and DTT at the early stage (7-28 days) of ICH. Modified Brunnstrom classification (MBC) and the motricity index of upper extremity (UMI) were evaluated at onset and 6 months after onset. Patients with the presence of a motor evoked potential (MEP) in TMS or a preserved corticospinal tract (CST) in DTT showed better motor outcomes than those without (p=0.000). TMS showed higher positive predictive value than DTT. In contrast, DTT showed higher negative predictive value than TMS. TMS and DTT had different advantages in predicting motor outcome, and this result could be a reference to predict final neurological deficit at the early stage of ICH.

  7. Predictive value of cognition for different domains of outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holthausen, Esther A E; Wiersma, Durk; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, René S; Dingemans, Peter M; Schene, Aart H; van den Bosch, Robert J

    2007-01-15

    The aim of this study was to see whether and how cognition predicts outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia in a large range of domains such as course of illness, self-care, interpersonal functioning, vocational functioning and need for care. At inclusion, 115 recent-onset patients were tested on a cognitive battery and 103 patients participated in the follow-up 2 years after inclusion. Differences in outcome between cognitively normal and cognitively impaired patients were also analysed. Cognitive measures at inclusion did not predict number of relapses, activities of daily living and interpersonal functioning. Time in psychosis or in full remission, as well as need for care, were partly predicted by specific cognitive measures. Although statistically significant, the predictive value of cognition with regard to clinical outcome was limited. There was a significant difference between patients with and without cognitive deficits in competitive employment status and vocational functioning. The predictive value of cognition for different social outcome domains varies. It seems that cognition most strongly predicts work performance, where having a cognitive deficit, regardless of the nature of the deficit, acts as a rate-limiting factor.

  8. PREDICTING THE MATCH OUTCOME IN ONE DAY INTERNATIONAL CRICKET MATCHES, WHILE THE GAME IS IN PROGRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Bailey

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Millions of dollars are wagered on the outcome of one day international (ODI cricket matches, with a large percentage of bets occurring after the game has commenced. Using match information gathered from all 2200 ODI matches played prior to January 2005, a range of variables that could independently explain statistically significant proportions of variation associated with the predicted run totals and match outcomes were created. Such variables include home ground advantage, past performances, match experience, performance at the specific venue, performance against the specific opposition, experience at the specific venue and current form. Using a multiple linear regression model, prediction variables were numerically weighted according to statistical significance and used to predict the match outcome. With the use of the Duckworth-Lewis method to determine resources remaining, at the end of each completed over, the predicted run total of the batting team could be updated to provide a more accurate prediction of the match outcome. By applying this prediction approach to a holdout sample of matches, the efficiency of the "in the run" wagering market could be assessed. Preliminary results suggest that the market is prone to overreact to events occurring throughout the course of the match, thus creating brief inefficiencies in the wagering market

  9. Predictive Utility of Personality Disorder in Depression: Comparison of Outcomes and Taxonomic Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton-Howes, Giles; Mulder, Roger; Ellis, Pete M; Boden, Joseph M; Joyce, Peter

    2017-09-19

    There is debate around the best model for diagnosing personality disorder, both in terms of its relationship to the empirical data and clinical utility. Four randomized controlled trials examining various treatments for depression were analyzed at an individual patient level. Three different approaches to the diagnosis of personality disorder were analyzed in these patients. A total of 578 depressed patients were included in the analysis. Personality disorder, however measured, was of little predictive utility in the short term but added significantly to predictive modelling of medium-term outcomes, accounting for more than twice as much of the variance in social functioning outcome as depression psychopathology. Personality disorder assessment is of predictive utility with longer timeframes and when considering social outcomes as opposed to symptom counts. This utility is sufficiently great that there appears to be value in assessing personality; however, no particular approach outperforms any other.

  10. Leg pain and psychological variables predict outcome 2-3 years after lumbar fusion surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Allan D; Tyni-Lenné, Raija; Hedlund, Rune

    2011-10-01

    Prediction studies testing a thorough range of psychological variables in addition to demographic, work-related and clinical variables are lacking in lumbar fusion surgery research. This prospective cohort study aimed at examining predictions of functional disability, back pain and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) 2-3 years after lumbar fusion by regressing nonlinear relations in a multivariate predictive model of pre-surgical variables. Before and 2-3 years after lumbar fusion surgery, patients completed measures investigating demographics, work-related variables, clinical variables, functional self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, fear of movement/(re)injury, mental health and pain coping. Categorical regression with optimal scaling transformation, elastic net regularization and bootstrapping were used to investigate predictor variables and address predictive model validity. The most parsimonious and stable subset of pre-surgical predictor variables explained 41.6, 36.0 and 25.6% of the variance in functional disability, back pain intensity and HRQOL 2-3 years after lumbar fusion. Pre-surgical control over pain significantly predicted functional disability and HRQOL. Pre-surgical catastrophizing and leg pain intensity significantly predicted functional disability and back pain while the pre-surgical straight leg raise significantly predicted back pain. Post-operative psychomotor therapy also significantly predicted functional disability while pre-surgical outcome expectations significantly predicted HRQOL. For the median dichotomised classification of functional disability, back pain intensity and HRQOL levels 2-3 years post-surgery, the discriminative ability of the prediction models was of good quality. The results demonstrate the importance of pre-surgical psychological factors, leg pain intensity, straight leg raise and post-operative psychomotor therapy in the predictions of functional disability, back pain and HRQOL-related outcomes.

  11. Evaluation of CROES Nephrolithometry Nomogram as a Preoperative Predictive System for Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sumit; Sreenivas, Jayaram; Karthikeyan, Vilvapathy Senguttuvan; Mallya, Ashwin; Keshavamurthy, Ramaiah

    2016-10-01

    Scoring systems have been devised to predict outcomes of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). CROES nephrolithometry nomogram (CNN) is the latest tool devised to predict stone-free rate (SFR). We aim to compare predictive accuracy of CNN against Guy stone score (GSS) for SFR and postoperative outcomes. Between January 2013 and December 2015, 313 patients undergoing PCNL were analyzed for predictive accuracy of GSS, CNN, and stone burden (SB) for SFR, complications, operation time (OT), and length of hospitalization (LOH). We further stratified patients into risk groups based on CNN and GSS. Mean ± standard deviation (SD) SB was 298.8 ± 235.75 mm 2 . SB, GSS, and CNN (area under curve [AUC]: 0.662, 0.660, 0.673) were found to be predictors of SFR. However, predictability for complications was not as good (AUC: SB 0.583, GSS 0.554, CNN 0.580). Single implicated calix (Adj. OR 3.644; p = 0.027), absence of staghorn calculus (Adj. OR 3.091; p = 0.044), single stone (Adj. OR 3.855; p = 0.002), and single puncture (Adj. OR 2.309; p = 0.048) significantly predicted SFR on multivariate analysis. Charlson comorbidity index (CCI; p = 0.020) and staghorn calculus (p = 0.002) were independent predictors for complications on linear regression. SB and GSS independently predicted OT on multivariate analysis. SB and complications significantly predicted LOH, while GSS and CNN did not predict LOH. CNN offered better risk stratification for residual stones than GSS. CNN and GSS have good preoperative predictive accuracy for SFR. Number of implicated calices may affect SFR, and CCI affects complications. Studies should incorporate these factors in scoring systems and assess if predictability of PCNL outcomes improves.

  12. Prediction of Outcome in Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding Using Gradient Boosting.

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    Lakshmana Ayaru

    Full Text Available There are no widely used models in clinical care to predict outcome in acute lower gastro-intestinal bleeding (ALGIB. If available these could help triage patients at presentation to appropriate levels of care/intervention and improve medical resource utilisation. We aimed to apply a state-of-the-art machine learning classifier, gradient boosting (GB, to predict outcome in ALGIB using non-endoscopic measurements as predictors.Non-endoscopic variables from patients with ALGIB attending the emergency departments of two teaching hospitals were analysed retrospectively for training/internal validation (n=170 and external validation (n=130 of the GB model. The performance of the GB algorithm in predicting recurrent bleeding, clinical intervention and severe bleeding was compared to a multiple logic regression (MLR model and two published MLR-based prediction algorithms (BLEED and Strate prediction rule.The GB algorithm had the best negative predictive values for the chosen outcomes (>88%. On internal validation the accuracy of the GB algorithm for predicting recurrent bleeding, therapeutic intervention and severe bleeding were (88%, 88% and 78% respectively and superior to the BLEED classification (64%, 68% and 63%, Strate prediction rule (78%, 78%, 67% and conventional MLR (74%, 74% 62%. On external validation the accuracy was similar to conventional MLR for recurrent bleeding (88% vs. 83% and therapeutic intervention (91% vs. 87% but superior for severe bleeding (83% vs. 71%.The gradient boosting algorithm accurately predicts outcome in patients with acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding and outperforms multiple logistic regression based models. These may be useful for risk stratification of patients on presentation to the emergency department.

  13. Preoperative MRI findings predict two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis.

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    Pekka Kuittinen

    Full Text Available To study the predictive value of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI findings for the two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.84 patients (mean age 63±11 years, male 43% with symptoms severe enough to indicate LSS surgery were included in this prospective observational single-center study. Preoperative MRI of the lumbar spine was performed with a 1.5-T unit. The imaging protocol conformed to the requirements of the American College of Radiology for the performance of MRI of the adult spine. Visual and quantitative assessment of MRI was performed by one experienced neuroradiologist. At the two-year postoperative follow-up, functional ability was assessed with the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI 0-100% and treadmill test (0-1000 m, pain symptoms with the overall Visual Analogue Scale (VAS 0-100 mm, and specific low back pain (LBP and specific leg pain (LP separately with a numeric rating scale from 0-10 (NRS-11. Satisfaction with the surgical outcome was also assessed.Preoperative severe central stenosis predicted postoperatively lower LP, LBP, and VAS when compared in patients with moderate central stenosis (p<0.05. Moreover, severe stenosis predicted higher postoperative satisfaction (p = 0.029. Preoperative scoliosis predicted an impaired outcome in the ODI (p = 0.031 and lowered the walking distance in the treadmill test (p = 0.001. The preoperative finding of only one stenotic level in visual assessment predicted less postoperative LBP when compared with patients having 2 or more stenotic levels (p = 0.026. No significant differences were detected between quantitative measurements and the patient outcome.Routine preoperative lumbar spine MRI can predict the patient outcome in a two-year follow up in patients with LSS surgery. Severe central stenosis and one-level central stenosis are predictors of good outcome. Preoperative finding of scoliosis may indicate worse functional ability.

  14. A new pathological scoring system by the Japanese classification to predict renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshino, Junichi; Furuichi, Kengo; Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Mise, Koki; Sekine, Akinari; Kawada, Masahiro; Sumida, Keiichi; Hiramatsu, Rikako; Hasegawa, Eiko; Hayami, Noriko; Suwabe, Tatsuya; Sawa, Naoki; Hara, Shigeko; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Toyama, Tadashi; Shimizu, Miho; Takaichi, Kenmei; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Wada, Takashi

    2018-01-01

    The impact of the newly proposed pathological classification by the Japan Renal Pathology Society (JRPS) on renal outcome is unclear. So we evaluated that impact and created a new pathological scoring to predict outcome using this classification. A multicenter cohort of 493 biopsy-proven Japanese patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN) were analyzed. The association between each pathological factor-Tervaert' and JRPS classifications-and renal outcome (dialysis initiation or 50% eGFR decline) was estimated by adjusted Cox regression. The overall pathological risk score (J-score) was calculated, whereupon its predictive ability for 10-year risk of renal outcome was evaluated. The J-scores of diffuse lesion classes 2 or 3, GBM doubling class 3, presence of mesangiolysis, polar vasculosis, and arteriolar hyalinosis were, respectively, 1, 2, 4, 1, and 2. The scores of IFTA classes 1, 2, and 3 were, respectively, 3, 4, and 4, and those of interstitial inflammation classes 1, 2, and 3 were 5, 5, and 4 (J-score range, 0-19). Renal survival curves, when dividing into four J-score grades (0-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-19), were significantly different from each other (prenal outcome. Ability to predict 10-year renal outcome was improved when the J-score was added to the basic model: c-statistics from 0.661 to 0.685; category-free net reclassification improvement, 0.154 (-0.040, 0.349, p = 0.12); and integrated discrimination improvement, 0.015 (0.003, 0.028, p = 0.02). Mesangiolysis, polar vasculosis, and doubling of GBM-features of the JRPS system-were significantly associated with renal outcome. Prediction of DN patients' renal outcome was better with the J-score than without it.

  15. Chronic Kidney Disease – Where Next? Predicting Outcomes and Planning Care Pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angharad Marks

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available With the introduction of the National Kidney Foundation Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative chronic kidney disease (CKD guidelines, CKD has been identified as common, particularly in the elderly. The outcomes for those with CKD can be poor: mortality, initiation of renal replacement therapy, and progressive deterioration in kidney function, with its associated complications. In young people with CKD, the risk of poor outcome is high and the social cost substantial, but the actual number of patients affected is relatively small. In the elderly, the risk of poor outcome is substantially lower, but due to the high prevalence of CKD the actual number of poor outcomes attributable to CKD is higher. Predicting which patients are at greatest risk, and being able to tailor care appropriately, has significant potential benefits. Risk prediction models in CKD are being developed and show promise but thus far have limitations. In this review we describe the pathway for developing and evaluating risk prediction tools, and consider what models we have for CKD prediction and where next.

  16. Hemizona Assay and Sperm Penetration Assay in the Prediction of IVF Outcome: A Systematic Review

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    Paraskevi Vogiatzi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The limited predictive value of semen analysis in achieving natural conception or in IVF outcome confirms the need for sperm function tests to determine optimal management. We reviewed HZA and SPA predictive power in IVF outcome, with statistical significance of diagnostic power of the assays. HZA was readily efficient in predicting IVF outcome, while evident inconsistency among the studies analysed framed the SPA’s role in male fertility evaluation. Considerable variation was noted in the diagnostic accuracy values of SPA with wide sensitivity (52–100%, specificity (0–100%, and PPV (18–100% and NPV (0–100% together with fluctuation and notable differentiation in methodology and cutoff values employed by each group. HZA methodology was overall consistent with minor variation in cutoff values and oocyte source, while data analysis reported strong correlation between HZA results with IVF outcome, high sensitivity (75–100%, good specificity (57–100%, and high PPV (79–100% and NPV (68–100%. HZA correlated well with IVF outcome and demonstrated better sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive power. Males with normal or slightly abnormal semen profiles could benefit by this intervention and could be evaluated prior to referral to assisted reproduction. HZA should be used in a sequential fashion with semen analysis and potentially other bioassays in an IVF setting.

  17. Do personality traits predict outcome of psychodynamically oriented psychosomatic inpatient treatment beyond initial symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinert, Christiane; Klein, Susanne; Leweke, Frank; Leichsenring, Falk

    2015-03-01

    Whether personality characteristics have an impact on treatment outcome is an important question in psychotherapy research. One of the most common approaches for the description of personality is the five-factor model of personality. Only few studies investigated whether patient personality as measured with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, Costa & McCrae [1992b]. Revised NEO-PI-R and NEO-FFI. Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Recources) predicts outcome. Results were inconsistent. Studies reporting personality to be predictive of outcome did not control for baseline symptoms, while studies controlling initial symptoms could not support these findings. We hypothesized that after taking into account baseline symptoms, the NEO-FFI would not predict outcome and tested this in a large sample of inpatients at a psychosomatic clinic. Naturalistic, non-controlled study using patients' data for multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of outcome. Data of 254 inpatients suffering primarily from depressive, anxiety, stress, and somatoform disorders were analysed. Personality was assessed at the beginning of therapy. For psychotherapy outcome, changes in anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), overall psychopathology (Symptom Checklist-90-R Global Severity Index [GSI]), and interpersonal problems (Inventory of Interpersonal Problems; IIP) were measured. The treatment resulted in significant decreases on all outcome measures corresponding to moderate to large effect sizes (HADS: d = 1.03; GSI: d = 0.90; IIP: d = 0.38). Consistent with our hypothesis, none of the personality domains predicted outcome when baseline symptoms were controlled for. Personality assessment at baseline does not seem to have an added value in the prediction of inpatient psychotherapy outcome beyond initial symptoms. Clinical implications Personality dimensions overlap with symptomatic distress. Rather than serve as predictors of

  18. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain levels predict visual outcome after optic neuritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, Signe; Degn, M; Sander, B

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis is a good model for multiple sclerosis relapse, but currently no tests can accurately predict visual outcome. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of tissue damage and remodelling (neurofilament light chain (NF......-L, β=-1.1, p=0.0150 for GC-IPL). Complete/incomplete remission was determined based on LCVA from 30 healthy controls. NF-L had a positive predictive value of 91% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 for incomplete remission. CONCLUSION: CSF NF-L is a promising biomarker of visual outcome after...

  19. Predicting Outcome in Comatose Patients: The Role of EEG Reactivity to Quantifiable Electrical Stimuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To test the value of quantifiable electrical stimuli as a reliable method to assess electroencephalogram reactivity (EEG-R for the early prognostication of outcome in comatose patients. Methods. EEG was recorded in consecutive adults in coma after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR or stroke. EEG-R to standard electrical stimuli was tested. Each patient received a 3-month follow-up by the Glasgow-Pittsburgh cerebral performance categories (CPC or modified Rankin scale (mRS score. Results. Twenty-two patients met the inclusion criteria. In the CPR group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (positive predictive value (PPV, 85.7% and 4 of 5 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (negative predictive value (NPV, 80%. The sensitivity and specificity were 85.7% and 80%, respectively. In the stroke group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (PPV, 85.7%; all of the 3 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (NPV, 100%. The sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 75%, respectively. Of all patients, the presence of EEG-R showed 92.3% sensitivity, 77.7% specificity, 85.7% PPV, and 87.5% NPV. Conclusion. EEG-R to quantifiable electrical stimuli might be a good positive predictive factor for the prognosis of outcome in comatose patients after CPR or stroke.

  20. Poor outcome prediction by burst suppression ratio in adults with post-anoxic coma without hypothermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qinglin; Su, Yingying; Hussain, Mohammed; Chen, Weibi; Ye, Hong; Gao, Daiquan; Tian, Fei

    2014-05-01

    Burst suppression ratio (BSR) is a quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) parameter. The purpose of our study was to compare the accuracy of BSR when compared to other EEG parameters in predicting poor outcomes in adults who sustained post-anoxic coma while not being subjected to therapeutic hypothermia. EEG was registered and recorded at least once within 7 days of post-anoxic coma onset. Electrodes were placed according to the international 10-20 system, using a 16-channel layout. Each EEG expert scored raw EEG using a grading scale adapted from Young and scored amplitude-integrated electroencephalography tracings, in addition to obtaining qEEG parameters defined as BSR with a defined threshold. Glasgow outcome scales of 1 and 2 at 3 months, determined by two blinded neurologists, were defined as poor outcome. Sixty patients with Glasgow coma scale score of 8 or less after anoxic accident were included. The sensitivity (97.1%), specificity (73.3%), positive predictive value (82.5%), and negative prediction value (95.0%) of BSR in predicting poor outcome were higher than other EEG variables. BSR1 and BSR2 were reliable in predicting death (area under the curve > 0.8, P coma who do not undergo therapeutic hypothermia when compared to other qEEG parameters.

  1. Optimizing the Risk Assessment in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Comparison of 5 Scores Predicting 7 Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Cúrdia Gonçalves

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Although different scores have been suggested to predict outcomes in the setting of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB, few comparative studies between simplified versions of older scores and recent scores have been published. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of pre- (PreRS and postendoscopic Rockall scores (PostRS, the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS and its simplified version (sGBS, as well as the AIMS65 score in predicting different clinical outcomes. Methods: In this retrospective study, PreRS, PostRS, GBS, sGBS, and AIMS65 score were calculated, and then, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each score to predict blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy, surgery, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, as well as 30-day rebleeding or mortality. Results: PreRS, PostRS, GBS, and sGBS were calculated for all the 433 included patients, but AIMS65 calculation was only possible for 315 patients. Only the PreRS and PostRS were able to fairly predict 30-day mortality. The GBS and sGBS were good in predicting blood transfusion and reasonable in predicting surgery. None of the studied scores were good in predicting the need for endoscopic therapy, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, and 30-day rebleeding. Conclusions: Owing to the identified limitations, none of the 5 studied scores could be singly used to predict all the clinically relevant outcomes in the setting of UGIB. The sGBS was as precise as the GBS in predicting blood transfusion and surgery. The PreRS and PostRS were the only scores that could predict 30-day mortality. An algorithm using the PreRS and the sGBS as an initial approach to patients with UGIB is presented and suggested.

  2. Application and comparison of scoring indices to predict outcomes in patients with healthcare-associated pneumonia

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Wen-Feng; Yang, Kuang-Yao; Wu, Chieh-Liang; Yu, Chong-Jen; Chen, Chang-Wen; Tu, Chih-Yen; Lin, Meng-Chih

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is a relatively new category of pneumonia. It refers to infections that occur prior to hospital admission in patients with specific risk factors following contact or exposure to a healthcare environment. There is currently no scoring index to predict the outcomes of HCAP patients. We applied and compared different community acquired pneumonia (CAP) scoring indices to predict 30-day mortality and 3-day and 14-day intensive care unit (ICU) adm...

  3. A commercial outcome prediction system for university technology transfer using neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chu, Ling

    2007-01-01

    This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University, 26/03/2007. This thesis presents a commercial outcome prediction system (CPS) capable of predicting the likely future monetary return that would be generated by an invention. The CPS is designed to be used by university technology transfer offices for invention assessment purposes, and is based on the data from their historical invention cases. It is aimed at improving technology transfer off...

  4. Prediction of cognitive outcome based on the progression of auditory discrimination during coma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan, Elsa; De Lucia, Marzia; Tzovara, Athina; Beaud, Valérie; Oddo, Mauro; Clarke, Stephanie; Rossetti, Andrea O

    2016-09-01

    To date, no clinical test is able to predict cognitive and functional outcome of cardiac arrest survivors. Improvement of auditory discrimination in acute coma indicates survival with high specificity. Whether the degree of this improvement is indicative of recovery remains unknown. Here we investigated if progression of auditory discrimination can predict cognitive and functional outcome. We prospectively recorded electroencephalography responses to auditory stimuli of post-anoxic comatose patients on the first and second day after admission. For each recording, auditory discrimination was quantified and its evolution over the two recordings was used to classify survivors as "predicted" when it increased vs. "other" if not. Cognitive functions were tested on awakening and functional outcome was assessed at 3 months using the Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC) scale. Thirty-two patients were included, 14 "predicted survivors" and 18 "other survivors". "Predicted survivors" were more likely to recover basic cognitive functions shortly after awakening (ability to follow a standardized neuropsychological battery: 86% vs. 44%; p=0.03 (Fisher)) and to show a very good functional outcome at 3 months (CPC 1: 86% vs. 33%; p=0.004 (Fisher)). Moreover, progression of auditory discrimination during coma was strongly correlated with cognitive performance on awakening (phonemic verbal fluency: rs=0.48; p=0.009 (Spearman)). Progression of auditory discrimination during coma provides early indication of future recovery of cognitive functions. The degree of improvement is informative of the degree of functional impairment. If confirmed in a larger cohort, this test would be the first to predict detailed outcome at the single-patient level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Understanding reproducibility of human IVF traits to predict next IVF cycle outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Shi, Juanzi; Zhao, Wanqiu; Lu, Suzhen; Silva, Marta; Gelety, Timothy J

    2014-10-01

    Evaluating the failed IVF cycle often provides useful prognostic information. Before undergoing another attempt, patients experiencing an unsuccessful IVF cycle frequently request information about the probability of future success. Here, we introduced the concept of reproducibility and formulae to predict the next IVF cycle outcome. The experimental design was based on the retrospective review of IVF cycle data from 2006 to 2013 in two different IVF centers and statistical analysis. The reproducibility coefficients (r) of IVF traits including number of oocytes retrieved, oocyte maturity, fertilization, embryo quality and pregnancy were estimated using the interclass correlation coefficient between the repeated IVF cycle measurements for the same patient by variance component analysis. The formulae were designed to predict next IVF cycle outcome. The number of oocytes retrieved from patients and their fertilization rate had the highest reproducibility coefficients (r = 0.81 ~ 0.84), which indicated a very close correlation between the first retrieval cycle and subsequent IVF cycles. Oocyte maturity and number of top quality embryos had middle level reproducibility (r = 0.38 ~ 0.76) and pregnancy rate had a relative lower reproducibility (r = 0.23 ~ 0.27). Based on these parameters, the next outcome for these IVF traits might be accurately predicted by the designed formulae. The introduction of the concept of reproducibility to our human IVF program allows us to predict future IVF cycle outcomes. The traits of oocyte numbers retrieved, oocyte maturity, fertilization, and top quality embryos had higher or middle reproducibility, which provides a basis for accurate prediction of future IVF outcomes. Based on this prediction, physicians may counsel their patients or change patient's stimulation plans, and laboratory embryologists may improve their IVF techniques accordingly.

  6. Has growth mixture modeling improved our understanding of how early change predicts psychotherapy outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koffmann, Andrew

    2017-03-02

    Early change in psychotherapy predicts outcome. Seven studies have used growth mixture modeling [GMM; Muthén, B. (2001). Second-generation structural equation modeling with a combination of categorical and continuous latent variables: New opportunities for latent class-latent growth modeling. In L. M. Collins & A. G. Sawyers (Eds.), New methods for the analysis of change (pp. 291-322). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association] to identify patient classes based on early change but have yielded conflicting results. Here, we review the earlier studies and apply GMM to a new data set. In a university-based training clinic, 251 patients were administered the Outcome Questionnaire-45 [Lambert, M. J., Hansen, N. B., Umphress, V., Lunnen, K., Okiishi, J., Burlingame, G., … Reisinger, C. W. (1996). Administration and scoring manual for the Outcome Questionnaire (OQ 45.2). Wilmington, DE: American Professional Credentialing Services] at each psychotherapy session. We used GMM to identify class structure based on change in the first six sessions and examined trajectories as predictors of outcome. The sample was best described as a single class. There was no evidence of autoregressive trends in the data. We achieved better fit to the data by permitting latent variables some degree of kurtosis, rather than to assume multivariate normality. Treatment outcome was predicted by the amount of early improvement, regardless of initial level of distress. The presence of sudden early gains or losses did not further improve outcome prediction. Early improvement is an easily computed, powerful predictor of psychotherapy outcome. The use of GMM to investigate the relationship between change and outcome is technically complex and computationally intensive. To date, it has not been particularly informative.

  7. Machine learning for outcome prediction of acute ischemic stroke post intra-arterial therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Asadi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. Accurately predicting stroke outcome from a set of predictive variables may identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches, leading to decreased morbidity. Logistic regression models allow for the identification and validation of predictive variables. However, advanced machine learning algorithms offer an alternative, in particular, for large-scale multi-institutional data, with the advantage of easily incorporating newly available data to improve prediction performance. Our aim was to design and compare different machine learning methods, capable of predicting the outcome of endovascular intervention in acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of acute ischaemic stroke treated by endovascular intervention. Using SPSS®, MATLAB®, and Rapidminer®, classical statistics as well as artificial neural network and support vector algorithms were applied to design a supervised machine capable of classifying these predictors into potential good and poor outcomes. These algorithms were trained, validated and tested using randomly divided data. RESULTS: We included 107 consecutive acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke patients treated by endovascular technique. Sixty-six were male and the mean age of 65.3. All the available demographic, procedural and clinical factors were included into the models. The final confusion matrix of the neural network, demonstrated an overall congruency of ∼ 80% between the target and output classes, with favourable receiving operative characteristics. However, after optimisation, the support vector machine had a relatively better performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.064 (SD: ± 0.408. DISCUSSION: We showed promising accuracy of outcome prediction, using supervised machine learning algorithms, with potential for incorporation of larger multicenter

  8. Overgeneral memory predicts stability of short-term outcome of electroconvulsive therapy for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raes, Filip; Sienaert, Pascal; Demyttenaere, Koen; Peuskens, Joseph; Williams, J Mark G; Hermans, Dirk

    2008-03-01

    To investigate the predictive value of overgeneral memory (OGM) for outcome of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) for depression. The Autobiographical Memory Test was used to measure OGM in 25 patients with depression before ECT. The Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) was administered weekly to 1 week posttreatment. Overgeneral memory did not predict HRSD scores from the last ECT treatment, but did predict HRSD change scores from the last treatment to 1-week follow-up: patients high in OGM experienced a relatively greater increase in HRSD scores after the last treatment. Results further extend the status of OGM as a predictor of an unfavorable course of depression to a previously unstudied ECT population.

  9. Early post-stroke cognition in stroke rehabilitation patients predicts functional outcome at 13 months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagle, Jørgen; Farner, Lasse; Flekkøy, Kjell; Bruun Wyller, Torgeir; Sandvik, Leiv; Fure, Brynjar; Stensrød, Brynhild; Engedal, Knut

    2011-01-01

    To identify prognostic factors associated with functional outcome at 13 months in a sample of stroke rehabilitation patients. Specifically, we hypothesized that cognitive functioning early after stroke would predict long-term functional outcome independently of other factors. 163 stroke rehabilitation patients underwent a structured neuropsychological examination 2-3 weeks after hospital admittance, and their functional status was subsequently evaluated 13 months later with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as outcome measure. Three predictive models were built using linear regression analyses: a biological model (sociodemographics, apolipoprotein E genotype, prestroke vascular factors, lesion characteristics and neurological stroke-related impairment); a functional model (pre- and early post-stroke cognitive functioning, personal and instrumental activities of daily living, ADL, and depressive symptoms), and a combined model (including significant variables, with p value Stroke Scale; β = 0.402, p stroke cognitive functioning (Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological Status, RBANS; β = -0.248, p = 0.001) and prestroke personal ADL (Barthel Index; β = -0.217, p = 0.002). Further linear regression analyses of which RBANS indexes and subtests best predicted long-term functional outcome showed that Coding (β = -0.484, p stroke cognitive functioning as measured by the RBANS is a significant and independent predictor of long-term functional post-stroke outcome. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  10. Six-month changes in spirituality and religiousness in alcoholics predict drinking outcomes at nine months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Elizabeth A R; Krentzman, Amy R; Webb, Jon R; Brower, Kirk J

    2011-07-01

    Although spiritual change is hypothesized to contribute to recovery from alcohol dependence, few studies have used prospective data to investigate this hypothesis. Prior studies have also been limited to treatment-seeking and Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) samples. This study included alcohol-dependent individuals, both in treatment and not, to investigate the effect of spiritual and religious (SR) change on subsequent drinking outcomes, independent of AA involvement. Alcoholics (N = 364) were recruited for a panel study from two abstinence-based treatment centers, a moderation drinking program, and untreated individuals from the local community. Quantitative measures of SR change between baseline and 6 months were used to predict 9-month drinking outcomes, controlling for baseline drinking and AA involvement. Significant 6-month changes in 8 of 12 SR measures were found, which included private SR practices, beliefs, daily spiritual experiences, three measures of forgiveness, negative religious coping, and purpose in life. Increases in private SR practices and forgiveness of self were the strongest predictors of improvements in drinking outcomes. Changes in daily spiritual experiences, purpose in life, a general measure of forgiveness, and negative religious coping also predicted favorable drinking outcomes. SR change predicted good drinking outcomes in alcoholics, even when controlling for AA involvement. SR variables, broadly defined, deserve attention in fostering change even among those who do not affiliate with AA or religious institutions. Last, future research should include SR variables, particularly various types of forgiveness, given the strong effects found for forgiveness of self.

  11. Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

    2013-09-01

    Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

  12. A Critical Evaluation of Network and Pathway-Based Classifiers for Outcome Prediction in Breast Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Staiger (Christine); S. Cadot; R Kooter; M. Dittrich (Marcus); T. Müller (Tobias); G.W. Klau (Gunnar); L.F.A. Wessels (Lodewyk)

    2012-01-01

    htmlabstractRecently, several classifiers that combine primary tumor data, like gene expression data, and secondary data sources, such as protein-protein interaction networks, have been proposed for predicting outcome in breast cancer. In these approaches, new composite features are typically

  13. Comparison of HIV-1 genotypic resistance test interpretation systems in predicting virological outcomes over time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Frentz (Dineke); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); M. Assel (Matthias); A. de Luca (Andrea); M. Fabbiani (Massimiliano); F. Incardona (Francesca); P. Libin (Pieter); N. Manca (Nino); V. Müller (Viktor); B.O. Nualláin (Breanndán); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Prosperi (Mattia); E. Quiros-Roldan (Eugenia); L. Ruiz (Lidia); P.M.A. Sloot (Peter); C. Torti (Carlo); A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); K. Laethem (Kristel); M. Zazzi (Maurizio); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Several decision support systems have been developed to interpret HIV-1 drug resistance genotyping results. This study compares the ability of the most commonly used systems (ANRS, Rega, and Stanford's HIVdb) to predict virological outcome at 12, 24, and 48 weeks.

  14. Pain drawings predict outcome of surgical treatment for degenerative disc disease in the cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDowall, Anna; Robinson, Yohan; Skeppholm, Martin; Olerud, Claes

    2017-08-01

    Pain drawings have been frequently used in the preoperative evaluation of spine patients. For lumbar conditions comprehensive research has established both the reliability and predictive value, but for the cervical spine most of this knowledge is lacking. The aims of this study were to validate pain drawings for the cervical spine, and to investigate the predictive value for treatment outcome of four different evaluation methods. We carried out a post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial, comparing cervical disc replacement to fusion for radiculopathy related to degenerative disc disease. A pain drawing together with Neck Disability Index (NDI) was completed preoperatively, after 2 and 5 years. The inter- and intraobserver reliability of four evaluation methods was tested using κ statistics, and its predictive value investigated by correlation to change in NDI. Included were 151 patients, mean age of 47 years, female/male: 78/73. The interobserver reliability was fair for the modified Ransford and Udén methods, good for the Gatchel method, and very good for the modified Ohnmeiss method. Markings in the shoulder and upper arm region on the pain drawing were positive predictors of outcome after 2 years of follow-up, and markings in the upper arm region remained a positive predictor of outcome even after 5 years of follow-up. Pain drawings were a reliable tool to interpret patients' pain prior to cervical spine surgery and were also to some extent predictive for treatment outcome.

  15. EEG Estimates of Cognitive Workload and Engagement Predict Math Problem Solving Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Carole R.; Galan, Federico Cirett

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, the authors focused on the use of electroencephalography (EEG) data about cognitive workload and sustained attention to predict math problem solving outcomes. EEG data were recorded as students solved a series of easy and difficult math problems. Sequences of attention and cognitive workload estimates derived from the EEG…

  16. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma : Prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J.; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C.; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H.; van Til, Janine A.; van Putten, Michel J.A.M.; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-01-01

    Background: We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis.

  17. Individualized prediction of seizure relapse and outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamberink, Herm J; Boshuisen, Kim; Otte, Willem M; Geleijns, Karin; Braun, Kees P J

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to create a clinically useful tool for individualized prediction of seizure outcomes following antiepileptic drug withdrawal after pediatric epilepsy surgery. We used data from the European retrospective TimeToStop study, which included 766 children from 15 centers, to perform a proportional hazard regression analysis. The 2 outcome measures were seizure recurrence and seizure freedom in the last year of follow-up. Prognostic factors were identified through systematic review of the literature. The strongest predictors for each outcome were selected through backward selection, after which nomograms were created. The final models included 3 to 5 factors per model. Discrimination in terms of adjusted concordance statistic was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.69) for predicting seizure recurrence and 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) for predicting eventual seizure freedom. An online prediction tool is provided on www.epilepsypredictiontools.info/ttswithdrawal. The presented models can improve counseling of patients and parents regarding postoperative antiepileptic drug policies, by estimating individualized risks of seizure recurrence and eventual outcome. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 International League Against Epilepsy.

  18. Can the outcome of pelvic-floor rehabilitation in patients with fecal incontinence be predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. Terra (Maaike); M. Deutekom (Marije); A.C. Dobben (Annette); C.G.M.I. Baeten; L.W.M. Janssen (Lucas); G.E. Boeckxstaens (Guy); A.F. Engel (Alexander); R.J.F. Felt-Bersma; J.F.W. Slors; M.F. Gerhards (Michael); A.B. Bijnen (Bart); E. Everhardt; W.R. Schouten (Ruud); B. Berghmans; P.M.M. Bossuyt (Patrick); J. Stoker (Jacob)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractPurpose: Pelvic-floor rehabilitation does not provide the same degree of relief in all fecal incontinent patients. We aimed at studying prospectively the ability of tests to predict the outcome of pelvic-floor rehabilitation in patients with fecal incontinence. Materials and methods: Two

  19. Could Learning Outcomes of the First Course in Accounting Predict Overall Academic Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanzi, Khalid A.; Alfraih, Mishari M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to question whether learning outcomes of the first course in accounting could predict the overall academic performance of accounting students as measured by their graduating grade point average (GPA). Design/methodology/approach The sample of the present study was drawn from accounting students who were graduated during…

  20. Informal Workplace Learning among Nurses: Organisational Learning Conditions and Personal Characteristics That Predict Learning Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to examine which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: In total, 203 nurses…

  1. Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van den Berg (Tobias); M.W. Heymans (Martijn); O. Leone; D. Vergouw (David); J. Hayden (Jill); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); H.C. de Vet (Henrica C)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of

  2. Predictability of psychic outcome for exercise training and exercise training including relaxation therapy after myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J. Duivenvoorden (Hugo); J. van Dixhoorn (J.)

    1991-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract Predictability of the psychic outcome for two cardiac rehabilitation programmes was investigated in 119 myocardial infarction patients. They were randomly assigned to either a five-week daily exercise training or to an identical training in combination with six sessions

  3. High energy transurethral thermotherapy in the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia: criteria to predict treatment outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D'Ancona, F. C. H.; Francisca, E. A. E.; Hendriks, J. C. M.; Debruyne, F. M. J.; de la Rosette, J. J. M. C. H.

    1999-01-01

    In this study we analyzed the individual value of baseline parameters to predict the outcome of high energy transurethral microwave thermotherapy in the treatment of patients with lower urinary tract symptoms and benign prostatic hyperplasia. Two hundred and forty-seven patients with symptomatic

  4. Consciousness Indexing and Outcome Prediction with Resting-State EEG in Severe Disorders of Consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefan, Sabina; Schorr, Barbara; Lopez-Rolon, Alex; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana; Shock, Jonathan P; Rosenfelder, Martin; Heck, Suzette; Bender, Andreas

    2018-04-17

    We applied the following methods to resting-state EEG data from patients with disorders of consciousness (DOC) for consciousness indexing and outcome prediction: microstates, entropy (i.e. approximate, permutation), power in alpha and delta frequency bands, and connectivity (i.e. weighted symbolic mutual information, symbolic transfer entropy, complex network analysis). Patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome (UWS) and patients in a minimally conscious state (MCS) were classified into these two categories by fitting and testing a generalised linear model. We aimed subsequently to develop an automated system for outcome prediction in severe DOC by selecting an optimal subset of features using sequential floating forward selection (SFFS). The two outcome categories were defined as UWS or dead, and MCS or emerged from MCS. Percentage of time spent in microstate D in the alpha frequency band performed best at distinguishing MCS from UWS patients. The average clustering coefficient obtained from thresholding beta coherence performed best at predicting outcome. The optimal subset of features selected with SFFS consisted of the frequency of microstate A in the 2-20 Hz frequency band, path length obtained from thresholding alpha coherence, and average path length obtained from thresholding alpha coherence. Combining these features seemed to afford high prediction power. Python and MATLAB toolboxes for the above calculations are freely available under the GNU public license for non-commercial use ( https://qeeg.wordpress.com ).

  5. Collateral flow predicts outcome after basilar artery occlusion : The posterior circulation collateral score

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Hoeven, Erik J R J; McVerry, Ferghal; Vos, Jan Albert; Algra, Ale; Puetz, Volker; Kappelle, L. Jaap; Schonewille, Wouter J.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND AIM: Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of a semiquantitative computed tomography angiography-based grading system, for the prediction of outcome in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion, based on the presence of potential collateral pathways on computed tomography

  6. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  7. Predicting optimal outcomes in cognitive therapy or interpersonal psychotherapy for depressed individuals using the personalized advantage index approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibers, M.J.H.; Cohen, Z.D.; Lemmens, L.H.J.M.; Arntz, A.; Peeters, F.P.M.L.; Cuijpers, P.; DeRubeis, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works

  8. Predicting optimal outcomes in cognitive therapy or interpersonal psychotherapy for depressed individuals using the personalized advantage index approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huibers, M.J.H.; Cohen, Z.D.; Lemmens, L.H.J.M.; Arntz, A.; Peeters, F.P.M.L.; Cuijpers, P.; DeRubeis, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works

  9. Development and validation of a dynamic outcome prediction model for paracetamol-induced acute liver failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernal, William; Wang, Yanzhong; Maggs, James

    2016-01-01

    : The models developed here show very good discrimination and calibration, confirmed in independent datasets, and suggest that many patients undergoing transplantation based on existing criteria might have survived with medical management alone. The role and indications for emergency liver transplantation......BACKGROUND: Early, accurate prediction of survival is central to management of patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure to identify those needing emergency liver transplantation. Current prognostic tools are confounded by recent improvements in outcome independent of emergency liver...... transplantation, and constrained by static binary outcome prediction. We aimed to develop a simple prognostic tool to reflect current outcomes and generate a dynamic updated estimation of risk of death. METHODS: Patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure managed at intensive care units in the UK...

  10. Machine learning approach for the outcome prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén Armañanzas

    Full Text Available Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery.

  11. Post-anoxic quantitative MRI changes may predict emergence from coma and functional outcomes at discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Alexandra S; Guo, Xiaotao; Matthews, Elizabeth; Brodie, Daniel; Rabbani, Leroy E; Roh, David J; Park, Soojin; Claassen, Jan; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Zhao, Binsheng; Agarwal, Sachin

    2017-08-01

    Traditional predictors of neurological prognosis after cardiac arrest are unreliable after targeted temperature management. Absence of pupillary reflexes remains a reliable predictor of poor outcome. Diffusion-weighted imaging has emerged as a potential predictor of recovery, and here we compare imaging characteristics to pupillary exam. We identified 69 patients who had MRIs within seven days of arrest and used a semi-automated algorithm to perform quantitative volumetric analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) sequences at various thresholds. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-AUC) were estimated to compare predictive values of quantitative MRI with pupillary exam at days 3, 5 and 7 post-arrest, for persistence of coma and functional outcomes at discharge. Cerebral Performance Category scores of 3-4 were considered poor outcome. Excluding patients where life support was withdrawn, ≥2.8% diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC of ≤650×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 68% sensitive for failure to wake up from coma before discharge. The ROC-AUC of ADC changes at ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s and ≤650×10 -6 mm 2 /s were significantly superior in predicting failure to wake up from coma compared to bilateral absence of pupillary reflexes. Among survivors, >0.01% of diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC ≤450×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 46% sensitive for poor functional outcome at discharge. The ROC curve predicting poor functional outcome at ADC ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s had an AUC of 0.737 (0.574-0.899, p=0.04). Post-anoxic diffusion changes using quantitative brain MRI may aid in predicting persistent coma and poor functional outcomes at hospital discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Neonatal Pulmonary MRI of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Predicts Short-term Clinical Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higano, Nara S; Spielberg, David R; Fleck, Robert J; Schapiro, Andrew H; Walkup, Laura L; Hahn, Andrew D; Tkach, Jean A; Kingma, Paul S; Merhar, Stephanie L; Fain, Sean B; Woods, Jason C

    2018-05-23

    Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a serious neonatal pulmonary condition associated with premature birth, but the underlying parenchymal disease and trajectory are poorly characterized. The current NICHD/NHLBI definition of BPD severity is based on degree of prematurity and extent of oxygen requirement. However, no clear link exists between initial diagnosis and clinical outcomes. We hypothesized that magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of structural parenchymal abnormalities will correlate with NICHD-defined BPD disease severity and predict short-term respiratory outcomes. Forty-two neonates (20 severe BPD, 6 moderate, 7 mild, 9 non-BPD controls; 40±3 weeks post-menstrual age) underwent quiet-breathing structural pulmonary MRI (ultrashort echo-time and gradient echo) in a NICU-sited, neonatal-sized 1.5T scanner, without sedation or respiratory support unless already clinically prescribed. Disease severity was scored independently by two radiologists. Mean scores were compared to clinical severity and short-term respiratory outcomes. Outcomes were predicted using univariate and multivariable models including clinical data and scores. MRI scores significantly correlated with severities and predicted respiratory support at NICU discharge (P<0.0001). In multivariable models, MRI scores were by far the strongest predictor of respiratory support duration over clinical data, including birth weight and gestational age. Notably, NICHD severity level was not predictive of discharge support. Quiet-breathing neonatal pulmonary MRI can independently assess structural abnormalities of BPD, describe disease severity, and predict short-term outcomes more accurately than any individual standard clinical measure. Importantly, this non-ionizing technique can be implemented to phenotype disease and has potential to serially assess efficacy of individualized therapies.

  13. The role of attachment in predicting CBT treatment outcome in children with anxiety disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walczak, Monika Anna; Normann, Nicoline; Tolstrup, Marie

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Child’s insecure attachment to parents and insecure parental attachment has been linked to childhood anxiety (Brumariu & Kerns, 2010; Manassis et al.,1994).Whether attachment patterns can predict treatment outcome, is yet to be investigated. We examined the role of children......’s attachment to parents, and parental attachment in predicting treatment outcome in anxious children receiving cognitive-behavioral treatment. Method: A total of 69 children aged 7-13 years were diagnosed at intake and post-treatment, using Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV (Silverman and Albano...... style in responders and non-responders in the present sample. We found a significant difference in maternal attachment anxiety scale (p=.011), with mothers of non-responders showing significantly higher attachment anxiety. Binominal logistic regression analysis was used to measure a predictive value...

  14. The use of presurgical psychological screening to predict the outcome of spine surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, A R; Ohnmeiss, D D; Guyer, R D; Rashbaum, R F; Hochschuler, S H

    2001-01-01

    Several previous studies have shown that psychosocial factors can influence the outcome of elective spine surgery. The purpose of the current study was to determine how well a presurgical screening instrument could predict surgical outcome. The study was conducted by staff of a psychologist's office. They performed preoperative screening for spine surgery candidates and collected the follow-up data. Presurgical screening and follow-up data collection was performed on 204 patients who underwent laminectomy/discectomy (n=118) or fusion (n=86) of the lumbar spine. The outcome measures used in the study were visual analog pain scales, the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire, and medication use. A semi-structured interview and psychometric testing were used to identify specific, quantifiable psychological, and "medical" risk factors for poor surgical outcome. A presurgical psychological screening (PPS) scorecard was completed for each patient, assessing whether the patient had a high or low level of risk on these psychological and medical dimensions. Based on the scorecard, an overall surgical prognosis of "good," "fair," or "poor" was generated. Results showed spine surgery led to significant overall improvements in pain, functional ability, and medication use. Medical and psychological risk levels were significantly related to outcome, with the poorest results obtained by patients having both high psychological and medical risk. Further, the accuracy of PPS surgical prognosis in predicting overall outcome was 82%. Only 9 of 53 patients predicted to have poor outcome achieved fair or good results from spine surgery. These findings suggest that PPS should become a more routine part of the evaluation of chronic pain patients in whom spine surgery is being considered.

  15. Predictive probability methods for interim monitoring in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ming; Tang, Qi; Lang, Lixin; Xing, Jun; Tatsuoka, Kay

    2018-04-17

    In clinical research and development, interim monitoring is critical for better decision-making and minimizing the risk of exposing patients to possible ineffective therapies. For interim futility or efficacy monitoring, predictive probability methods are widely adopted in practice. Those methods have been well studied for univariate variables. However, for longitudinal studies, predictive probability methods using univariate information from only completers may not be most efficient, and data from on-going subjects can be utilized to improve efficiency. On the other hand, leveraging information from on-going subjects could allow an interim analysis to be potentially conducted once a sufficient number of subjects reach an earlier time point. For longitudinal outcomes, we derive closed-form formulas for predictive probabilities, including Bayesian predictive probability, predictive power, and conditional power and also give closed-form solutions for predictive probability of success in a future trial and the predictive probability of success of the best dose. When predictive probabilities are used for interim monitoring, we study their distributions and discuss their analytical cutoff values or stopping boundaries that have desired operating characteristics. We show that predictive probabilities utilizing all longitudinal information are more efficient for interim monitoring than that using information from completers only. To illustrate their practical application for longitudinal data, we analyze 2 real data examples from clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Rational design of gene-based vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barouch, Dan H

    2006-01-01

    Vaccine development has traditionally been an empirical discipline. Classical vaccine strategies include the development of attenuated organisms, whole killed organisms, and protein subunits, followed by empirical optimization and iterative improvements. While these strategies have been remarkably successful for a wide variety of viruses and bacteria, these approaches have proven more limited for pathogens that require cellular immune responses for their control. In this review, current strategies to develop and optimize gene-based vaccines are described, with an emphasis on novel approaches to improve plasmid DNA vaccines and recombinant adenovirus vector-based vaccines. Copyright 2006 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Could the outcome of the 2016 US elections have been predicted from past voting patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Peter M. U.; Holloway, Jennifer P.; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko; Ntlangu, Mbulelo B.; Koen, Renee

    2018-05-01

    In South Africa, a team of analysts has for some years been using statistical techniques to predict election outcomes during election nights in South Africa. The prediction method involves using statistical clusters based on past voting patterns to predict final election outcomes, using a small number of released vote counts. With the US presidential elections in November 2016 hitting the global media headlines during the time period directly after successful predictions were done for the South African elections, the team decided to investigate adapting their meth-od to forecast the final outcome in the US elections. In particular, it was felt that the time zone differences between states would affect the time at which results are released and thereby provide a window of opportunity for doing election night prediction using only the early results from the eastern side of the US. Testing the method on the US presidential elections would have two advantages: it would determine whether the core methodology could be generalised, and whether it would work to include a stronger spatial element in the modelling, since the early results released would be spatially biased due to time zone differences. This paper presents a high-level view of the overall methodology and how it was adapted to predict the results of the US presidential elections. A discussion on the clustering of spatial units within the US is also provided and the spatial distribution of results together with the Electoral College prediction results from both a `test-run' and the final 2016 presidential elections are given and analysed.

  18. Black Hole Sign Predicts Poor Outcome in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi; Yang, Wen-Song; Chen, Sheng-Li; Lv, Fu-Rong; Lv, Fa-Jin; Hu, Xi; Zhu, Dan; Cao, Du; Wang, Xing-Chen; Li, Rui; Yuan, Liang; Qin, Xin-Yue; Xie, Peng

    2018-01-01

    In spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), black hole sign has been proposed as a promising imaging marker that predicts hematoma expansion in patients with ICH. The aim of our study was to investigate whether admission CT black hole sign predicts hematoma growth in patients with ICH. From July 2011 till February 2016, patients with spontaneous ICH who underwent baseline CT scan within 6 h of symptoms onset and follow-up CT scan were recruited into the study. The presence of black hole sign on admission non-enhanced CT was independently assessed by 2 readers. The functional outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the presence of the black hole sign and functional outcome. A total of 225 patients (67.6% male, mean age 60.3 years) were included in our study. Black hole sign was identified in 32 of 225 (14.2%) patients on admission CT scan. The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, intraventricular hemorrhage, baseline ICH volume, admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, and presence of black hole sign on baseline CT independently predict poor functional outcome at 90 days. There are significantly more patients with a poor functional outcome (defined as mRS ≥4) among patients with black hole sign than those without (84.4 vs. 32.1%, p black hole sign independently predicts poor outcome in patients with ICH. Early identification of black hole sign is useful in prognostic stratification and may serve as a potential therapeutic target for anti-expansion clinical trials. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Post-injury personality in the prediction of outcome following severe acquired brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattran, Charlotte Jane; Oddy, Michael; Wood, Rodger Llewellyn; Moir, Jane Frances

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the study was to examine the utility of five measures of non-cognitive neurobehavioural (NCNB) changes that often occur following acquired brain injury, in predicting outcome (measured in terms of participation and social adaptation) at 1-year follow-up. The study employed a longitudinal, correlational design. Multiple regression was employed to investigate the value of five new NCNB measures of social perception, emotional regulation, motivation, impulsivity and disinhibition in the prediction of outcome as measured by the Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI). Two NCNB measures (motivation and emotional regulation) were found to significantly predict outcome at 1-year follow-up, accounting for 53% of the variance in MPAI total scores. These measures provide a method of quantifying the extent of NCNB changes following brain injury. The predictive value of the measures indicates that they may represent a useful tool which could aid clinicians in identifying early-on those whose symptoms are likely to persist and who may require ongoing intervention. This could facilitate the planning of rehabilitation programmes.

  20. Can anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) predict the outcome of intrauterine insemination with controlled ovarian stimulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakas, Panagiotis; Boutas, Ioannis; Creatsa, Maria; Vlahos, Nicos; Gregoriou, Odysseas; Creatsas, George; Hassiakos, Dimitrios

    2015-10-01

    To assess whether the levels of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) are related to outcome of intrauterine insemination (IUI) in patients treated with gonadotropins. A total of 195 patients underwent controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) with recombinant follicle stimulating hormone (rFSH) (50-150 IU/d). All patients were submitted upto three cycles of IUI. Primary outcome was the ability of AMH levels to predict clinical pregnancy at first attempt and the cumulative clinical pregnancy probability of upto three IUI cycles. Secondary outcomes were the relation of AMH, LH, FSH, BMI, age, parity and basic estradiol levels with each other and the outcome of IUI. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in predicting clinical pregnancy for AMH at first attempt was 0.53 and for cumulative clinical pregnancy was 0.76. AMH levels were positively correlated with clinical pregnancy rate at first attempt and with cumulative clinical pregnancy rate, but negatively correlated with patient's age and FSH levels. Patient's FSH, LH levels were negatively correlated with cumulative clinical pregnancy rate. AMH levels seem to have a positive correlation and patient's age and LH levels had a negative correlation with the outcome of IUI and COS with gonadotropins. AMH concentration was significantly higher and LH was significantly lower in patients with a clinical pregnancy after three cycles of IUI treatment compared with those who did not achieve pregnancy.

  1. Do patient characteristics predict outcome in the outpatient treatment of chronic tinnitus?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröner-Herwig, Birgit; Zachriat, Claudia; Weigand, Doreen

    2006-12-06

    Various patient characteristics were assessed before offering a treatment to reduce tinnitus related distress to 57 individuals suffering from chronic idiopathic tinnitus. Patients were randomly assigned to a cognitive-behavioral tinnitus coping training (TCT) and a habituation-based training (HT) modelled after Tinnitus Retraining Therapy (TRT) as conceived by Jastreboff. Both trainings were conducted in groups. It was hypothesized that comorbidity regarding mental disorders or psychopathological symptoms (DSM-IV diagnoses, SCL-90R score) and a high level of dysfunctional cognitions relating to tinnitus would have a negative effect on therapy outcome while both trainings proved to be highly efficacious for the average patient. Also further patient features (assessed at baseline) were explored as potential predictors of outcome. None of the hypotheses was corroborated by the data. On the contrary, a higher number of diagnoses was associated with better outcome (statistical trend) and a higher extent of annoyance and interference led to a larger positive change in patients if treated by TCT. No predictor could be identified for long-term success (follow-up ≥18 months) except regarding education. The higher the educational level, the larger was the improvement in HT patients. It is concluded that therapy outcome of TCT and HT can not reliably be predicted by patient characteristics and that early variables of the therapeutic process should be analysed as potentially predicting subsequent therapeutic outcome.

  2. Magnetic resonance imaging of injuries to the ankle joint: can it predict clinical outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanetti, M; De Simoni, C; Wetz, H H; Zollinger, H; Hodler, J

    1997-02-01

    To predict clinical outcome after ankle sprains on the basis of magnetic resonance (MR) findings. Twenty-nine consecutive patients (mean age 32.9 years, range 13-60 years) were examined clinically and with MR imaging both after trauma and following standardized conservative therapy. Various MR abnormalities were related to a clinical outcome score. There was a tendency for a better clinical outcome in partial, rather than complete, tears of the anterior talofibular ligament and when there was no fluid within the peroneal tendon sheath at the initial MR examination (P = 0.092 for either abnormality). A number of other MR features did not significantly influence clinical outcome, including the presence of a calcaneofibular ligament lesion and a bone bruise of the talar dome. Clinical outcome after ankle sprain cannot consistently be predicted by MR imaging, although MR imaging may be more accurate when the anterior talofibular ligament is only partially torn and there are no signs of injury to the peroneal tendon sheath.

  3. Prediction modelling for trauma using comorbidity and 'true' 30-day outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouamra, Omar; Jacques, Richard; Edwards, Antoinette; Yates, David W; Lawrence, Thomas; Jenks, Tom; Woodford, Maralyn; Lecky, Fiona

    2015-12-01

    Prediction models for trauma outcome routinely control for age but there is uncertainty about the need to control for comorbidity and whether the two interact. This paper describes recent revisions to the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) risk adjustment model designed to take account of age and comorbidities. In addition linkage between TARN and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) database allows patient's outcome to be accurately identified up to 30 days after injury. Outcome at discharge within 30 days was previously used. Prospectively collected data between 2010 and 2013 from the TARN database were analysed. The data for modelling consisted of 129 786 hospital trauma admissions. Three models were compared using the area under the receiver operating curve (AuROC) for assessing the ability of the models to predict outcome, the Akaike information criteria to measure the quality between models and test for goodness-of-fit and calibration. Model 1 is the current TARN model, Model 2 is Model 1 augmented by a modified Charlson comorbidity index and Model 3 is Model 2 with ONS data on 30 day outcome. The values of the AuROC curve for Model 1 were 0.896 (95% CI 0.893 to 0.899), for Model 2 were 0.904 (0.900 to 0.907) and for Model 3 0.897 (0.896 to 0.902). No significant interaction was found between age and comorbidity in Model 2 or in Model 3. The new model includes comorbidity and this has improved outcome prediction. There was no interaction between age and comorbidity, suggesting that both independently increase vulnerability to mortality after injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  4. Review of the quality of total mesorectal excision does not improve the prediction of outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demetter, P; Jouret-Mourin, A; Silversmit, G; Vandendael, T; Sempoux, C; Hoorens, A; Nagy, N; Cuvelier, C; Van Damme, N; Penninckx, F

    2016-09-01

    A fair to moderate concordance in grading of the total mesorectal excision (TME) surgical specimen by local pathologists and a central review panel has been observed in the PROCARE (Project on Cancer of the Rectum) project. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the difference, if any, in the accuracy of predicting the oncological outcome through TME grading by local pathologists or by the review panel. The quality of the TME specimen was reviewed for 482 surgical specimens registered on a prospective database between 2006 and 2011. Patients with a Stage IV tumour, with unknown incidence date or without follow-up information were excluded, resulting in a study population of 383 patients. Quality assessment of the specimen was based on three grades including mesorectal resection (MRR), intramesorectal resection (IMR) and muscularis propria resection (MPR). Using univariable Cox regression models, local and review panel histopathological gradings of the quality of TME were assessed as predictors of local recurrence, distant metastasis and disease-free and overall survival. Differences in the predictions between local and review grading were determined. Resection planes were concordant in 215 (56.1%) specimens. Downgrading from MRR to MPR was noted in 23 (6.0%). There were no significant differences in the prediction error between the two models; local and central review TME grading predicted the outcome equally well. Any difference in grading of the TME specimen between local histopathologists and the review panel had no significant impact on the prediction of oncological outcome for this patient cohort. Grading of the quality of TME as reported by local histopathologists can therefore be used for outcome analysis. Quality control of TME grading is not warranted provided the histopathologist is adequately trained. Colorectal Disease © 2016 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  5. Use of brain lactate levels to predict outcome after perinatal asphyxia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leth, H; Toft, P.B.; Peitersen, Birgit

    1996-01-01

    Perinatal asphyxia is an important cause of neurological disability, but early prediction of outcome can be difficult. We performed proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and global cerebral blood flow measurements by xenon-133 clearance in 16 infants with evidence of perinatal asphyxia...... neurological deficits and the rest seemed to be progressing normally at neurodevelopmental follow-up at 1 year of age. A significant correlation was found between initial brain lactate levels and severe outcome (p = 0.0003) just as between cerebral hyperperfusion (mean cerebral blood flow (CBF) 86 ml(100 g)-1...

  6. Daily Autonomy Support and Sexual Identity Disclosure Predicts Daily Mental and Physical Health Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legate, Nicole; Ryan, Richard M; Rogge, Ronald D

    2017-06-01

    Using a daily diary methodology, we examined how social environments support or fail to support sexual identity disclosure, and associated mental and physical health outcomes. Results showed that variability in disclosure across the diary period related to greater psychological well-being and fewer physical symptoms, suggesting potential adaptive benefits to selectively disclosing. A multilevel path model indicated that perceiving autonomy support in conversations predicted more disclosure, which in turn predicted more need satisfaction, greater well-being, and fewer physical symptoms that day. Finally, mediation analyses revealed that disclosure and need satisfaction explained why perceiving autonomy support in a conversation predicted greater well-being and fewer physical symptoms. That is, perceiving autonomy support in conversations indirectly predicted greater wellness through sexual orientation disclosure, along with feeling authentic and connected in daily interactions with others. Discussion highlights the role of supportive social contexts and everyday opportunities to disclose in affecting sexual minority mental and physical health.

  7. Artificial Neural Network System to Predict the Postoperative Outcome of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminsharifi, Alireza; Irani, Dariush; Pooyesh, Shima; Parvin, Hamid; Dehghani, Sakineh; Yousofi, Khalilolah; Fazel, Ebrahim; Zibaie, Fatemeh

    2017-05-01

    To construct, train, and apply an artificial neural network (ANN) system for prediction of different outcome variables of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). We calculated predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for each outcome variable. During the study period, all adult patients who underwent PCNL at our institute were enrolled in the study. Preoperative and postoperative variables were recorded, and stone-free status was assessed perioperatively with computed tomography scans. MATLAB software was used to design and train the network in a feed forward back-propagation error adjustment scheme. Preoperative and postoperative data from 200 patients (training set) were used to analyze the effect and relative relevance of preoperative values on postoperative parameters. The validated adequately trained ANN was used to predict postoperative outcomes in the subsequent 254 adult patients (test set) whose preoperative values were serially fed into the system. To evaluate system accuracy in predicting each postoperative variable, predicted values were compared with actual outcomes. Two hundred fifty-four patients (155 [61%] males) were considered the test set. Mean stone burden was 6702.86 ± 381.6 mm 3 . Overall stone-free rate was 76.4%. Fifty-four out of 254 patients (21.3%) required ancillary procedures (shockwave lithotripsy 5.9%, transureteral lithotripsy 10.6%, and repeat PCNL 4.7%). The accuracy and sensitivity of the system in predicting different postoperative variables ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%. As a complex nonlinear mathematical model, our ANN system is an interconnected data mining tool, which prospectively analyzes and "learns" the relationships between variables. The accuracy and sensitivity of the system for predicting the stone-free rate, the need for blood transfusion, and post-PCNL ancillary procedures ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%.The stone burden and the stone morphometry were among the most significant preoperative characteristics that

  8. Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lalonde, Michel, E-mail: mlalonde15@rogers.com; Wassenaar, Richard [Department of Physics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6 (Canada); Wells, R. Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D. [Division of Cardiology, University of Ottawa Heart Institute, Ottawa, Ontario K1Y 4W7 (Canada)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. Methods: About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Results: Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Cluster

  9. Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lalonde, Michel; Wassenaar, Richard; Wells, R. Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. Methods: About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Results: Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Cluster

  10. A simple score to predict fetal outcomes in gestational diabetes mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kushal Naha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Strict glycemic control is critical in preventing adverse maternal and fetal outcomes with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM, but frequently results in recurrent maternal hypoglycemia and is often impracticable. This study was done to determine whether a more lenient strategy might provide satisfactory outcomes and to formulate a glycemic score for prognostication of fetal outcomes. Methods: A prospective non-interventional study was conducted on consecutive patients admitted with GDM between May 2007 and August 2009. Patients with pre-gestational diabetes were excluded. All patients received treatment at the discretion of treating consultants. Glycemic control was estimated by recording mean values of all glucose profiles performed. Fasting and postprandial blood glucose levels below 95 mg/dl and 120 mg/dl, respectively, were considered controlled. A glycemic score was calculated based on the number of mean blood glucose values controlled. Fetal outcomes were noted. Results: Ninety-four patients with GDM were included. The glycemic score was significantly predictive of adverse fetal outcomes (p < 0.001. Analysis by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve showed good sensitivity and specificity for macrosomia (78.3% and 81.8%, respectively and congenital anomalies (73.9% and 66.7%, respectively with a glycemic score of 2 or less [area under curve (AUC 0.768; odds ratio (OR, 11.17; 95% Confidence Interval (CI, 2.58-48.35; p < 0.001; and AUC 0.765; OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 0.71-6.92; p = 0.055, respectively]. Binomial logistic regression confirmed the glycemic score to be independently predictive of fetal outcome (p = 0.015. Conclusion: The glycemic score is a sensitive and specific prognostic marker. Tight control of three of four values of blood glucose within the glucose profile appears sufficient to prevent adverse fetal outcomes.

  11. BIOMARKERS S100B AND NSE PREDICT OUTCOME IN HYPOTHERMIA-TREATED ENCEPHALOPATHIC NEWBORNS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massaro, An N.; Chang, Taeun; Baumgart, Stephen; McCarter, Robert; Nelson, Karin B.; Glass, Penny

    2014-01-01

    Objective To evaluate if serum S100B protein and neuron specific enolase (NSE) measured during therapeutic hypothermia are predictive of neurodevelopmental outcome at 15 months in children with neonatal encephalopathy (NE). Design Prospective longitudinal cohort study Setting A level IV neonatal intensive care unit in a free-standing children’s hospital. Patients Term newborns with moderate to severe NE referred for therapeutic hypothermia during the study period. Interventions Serum NSE and S100B were measured at 0, 12, 24 and 72 hrs of hypothermia. Measurements and Main Reseults Of the 83 infants were enrolled, fifteen (18%) died in the newborn period. Survivors were evaluated by the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II) at 15 months of age. Outcomes were assessed in 49/68 (72%) survivors at a mean age of 15.2±2.7 months. Neurodevelopmental outcome was classified by BSID-II Mental (MDI) and Psychomotor (PDI) Developmental Index scores, reflecting cognitive and motor outcomes respectively. Four-level outcome classifications were defined a priori: normal= MDI/PDI within 1SD (>85), mild= MDI/PDI <1SD (70–85), moderate/severe= MDI/PDI <2SD (<70), or died. Elevated serum S100B and NSE levels measured during hypothermia were associated with increasing outcome severity after controlling for baseline and soceioeconomic characteristics in ordinal regression models. Adjusted odds ratios for cognitive outcome were: S100B 2.5 (95% CI 1.3–4.8) and NSE 2.1 (1.2–3.6); for motor outcome: S100B 2.6 (1.2–5.6) and NSE 2.1 (1.2–3.6). Conclusions Serum S100B and NSE levels in babies with NE are associated with neurodevelopmental outcome at 15 months. These putative biomarkers of brain injury may help direct care during therapeutic hypothermia. PMID:24777302

  12. Serum Beta-hCG of 11 Days after Embryo Transfer to Predict Pregnancy Outcome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Objective To assess the clinic value of a single maternal serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) assay 11 d after embryo transfer in ART pregnancies and to predict pregnancy outcome.Methods A total of 384 pregnancies after embryo transfer were included.Inviable pregnancies were defined as biochemical pregnancies,ectopic pregnancies and first trimester abortions.Ongoing pregnancies were defined as singleton pregnancies and multiple pregnancies whose gestation were achieved more than 12 weeks.Serum β-hCG concentrations were compared among different groups.Results On the post embryo transfer d 11,the mean β-hCG concentration of the ongoing pregnancy group (323.7±285.2 mIU/ml) was significantly higher than that of the inviable pregnancy group(81.4±68.1 mmIU/ml)(P<0.001).In multiple gestations,the levels of β-hCG were significantly higher compared with singleton pregnancies.If the β-hCG level was between 10 mIU/ml and 50 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of biochemical pregnancies and ectopic pregnancies was 81.8%,the negative predictive value was 94.4%.If the level was less than 100 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of first trimester abortions was 80.8% the negative predictive value was 77.8%.If the level was greater than 250 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of multiple pregnancies was 83.3%.the negative predictive value was 74.4%.Conclusions A single serum β-hCG level on d 11 after embryo transfer has good predictive valuefor clinical pregnancy outcome in controlled ovarian stimulation cycles and helps to plan the subsequent follow-up.

  13. Cancer imaging phenomics toolkit: quantitative imaging analytics for precision diagnostics and predictive modeling of clinical outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davatzikos, Christos; Rathore, Saima; Bakas, Spyridon; Pati, Sarthak; Bergman, Mark; Kalarot, Ratheesh; Sridharan, Patmaa; Gastounioti, Aimilia; Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Akbari, Hamed; Tunc, Birkan; Doshi, Jimit; Parker, Drew; Hsieh, Michael; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Li, Hongming; Ou, Yangming; Doot, Robert K; Bilello, Michel; Fan, Yong; Shinohara, Russell T; Yushkevich, Paul; Verma, Ragini; Kontos, Despina

    2018-01-01

    The growth of multiparametric imaging protocols has paved the way for quantitative imaging phenotypes that predict treatment response and clinical outcome, reflect underlying cancer molecular characteristics and spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and can guide personalized treatment planning. This growth has underlined the need for efficient quantitative analytics to derive high-dimensional imaging signatures of diagnostic and predictive value in this emerging era of integrated precision diagnostics. This paper presents cancer imaging phenomics toolkit (CaPTk), a new and dynamically growing software platform for analysis of radiographic images of cancer, currently focusing on brain, breast, and lung cancer. CaPTk leverages the value of quantitative imaging analytics along with machine learning to derive phenotypic imaging signatures, based on two-level functionality. First, image analysis algorithms are used to extract comprehensive panels of diverse and complementary features, such as multiparametric intensity histogram distributions, texture, shape, kinetics, connectomics, and spatial patterns. At the second level, these quantitative imaging signatures are fed into multivariate machine learning models to produce diagnostic, prognostic, and predictive biomarkers. Results from clinical studies in three areas are shown: (i) computational neuro-oncology of brain gliomas for precision diagnostics, prediction of outcome, and treatment planning; (ii) prediction of treatment response for breast and lung cancer, and (iii) risk assessment for breast cancer.

  14. Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

    2017-01-01

    In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

  15. Status epilepticus severity score (STESS): A useful tool to predict outcome of status epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, Manoj Kumar; Chakravarthi, Sudheer; Modi, Manish; Bhalla, Ashish; Lal, Vivek

    2015-12-01

    The treatment protocols for status epilepticus (SE) range from small doses of intravenous benzodiazepines to induction of coma. The pros and cons of more aggressive treatment regimen remain debatable. The importance of an index need not be overemphasized which can predict outcome of SE and guide the intensity of treatment. We tried to evaluate utility of one such index Status epilepticus severity score (STESS). 44 consecutive patients of SE were enrolled in the study. STESS results were compared with various outcome measures: (a) mortality, (b) final neurological outcome at discharge as defined by functional independence measure (FIM) (good outcome: FIM score 5-7; bad outcome: FIM score 1-4), (c) control of SE within 1h of start of treatment and (d) need for coma induction. A higher STESS score correlated significantly with poor neurological outcome at discharge (p=0.0001), need for coma induction (p=0.0001) and lack of response to treatment within 1h (p=0.001). A STESS of status epilepticus. Further studies on STESS based treatment approach may help in designing better therapeutic regimens for SE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Endometrial Receptivity and its Predictive Value for IVF/ICSI-Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heger, A; Sator, M; Pietrowski, D

    2012-08-01

    Endometrial receptivity plays a crucial role in the establishment of a healthy pregnancy in cycles of assisted reproduction. The endometrium as a key factor during reproduction can be assessed in multiple ways, most commonly through transvaginal grey-scale or 3-D ultrasound. It has been shown that controlled ovarian hyperstimulation has a great impact on the uterine lining, which leads to different study results for the predictive value of endometrial factors measured on different cycle days. There is no clear consensus on whether endometrial factors are appropriate to predict treatment outcome and if so, which one is suited best. The aim of this review is to summarize recent findings of studies about the influence of endometrial thickness, volume and pattern on IVF- and ICSI-treatment outcome and provide an overview of future developments in the field.

  17. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: a longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa E; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia M; Dunn, Erin C; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W; Jellinek, Michael S

    2015-04-01

    The world's largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life (SFL)], has been operating on a national scale in Chile for 15 years. SFL's activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL's data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students' academic outcomes.

  18. Predicting Positive Education Outcomes for Emerging Adults in Mental Health Systems of Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Eileen M; Nygren, Peggy; Stephens, Robert L; Croskey, Adrienne

    2016-10-01

    Emerging adults who receive services based on positive youth development models have shown an ability to shape their own life course to achieve positive goals. This paper reports secondary data analysis from the Longitudinal Child and Family Outcome Study including 248 culturally diverse youth ages 17 through 22 receiving mental health services in systems of care. After 12 months of services, school performance was positively related to youth ratings of school functioning and service participation and satisfaction. Regression analysis revealed ratings of young peoples' perceptions of school functioning, and their experience in services added to the significant prediction of satisfactory school performance, even controlling for sex and attendance. Finally, in addition to expected predictors, participation in planning their own services significantly predicted enrollment in higher education for those who finished high school. Findings suggest that programs and practices based on positive youth development approaches can improve educational outcomes for emerging adults.

  19. Electroencephalography Predicts Poor and Good Outcomes After Cardiac Arrest: A Two-Center Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossetti, Andrea O; Tovar Quiroga, Diego F; Juan, Elsa; Novy, Jan; White, Roger D; Ben-Hamouda, Nawfel; Britton, Jeffrey W; Oddo, Mauro; Rabinstein, Alejandro A

    2017-07-01

    The prognostic role of electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management in postcardiac arrest patients, relatively to other predictors, is incompletely known. We assessed performances of electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management toward good and poor outcomes, along with other recognized predictors. Cohort study (April 2009 to March 2016). Two academic hospitals (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland; Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN). Consecutive comatose adults admitted after cardiac arrest, identified through prospective registries. All patients were managed with targeted temperature management, receiving prespecified standardized clinical, neurophysiologic (particularly, electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management), and biochemical evaluations. We assessed electroencephalography variables (reactivity, continuity, epileptiform features, and prespecified "benign" or "highly malignant" patterns based on the American Clinical Neurophysiology Society nomenclature) and other clinical, neurophysiologic (somatosensory-evoked potential), and biochemical prognosticators. Good outcome (Cerebral Performance Categories 1 and 2) and mortality predictions at 3 months were calculated. Among 357 patients, early electroencephalography reactivity and continuity and flexor or better motor reaction had greater than 70% positive predictive value for good outcome; reactivity (80.4%; 95% CI, 75.9-84.4%) and motor response (80.1%; 95% CI, 75.6-84.1%) had highest accuracy. Early benign electroencephalography heralded good outcome in 86.2% (95% CI, 79.8-91.1%). False positive rates for mortality were less than 5% for epileptiform or nonreactive early electroencephalography, nonreactive late electroencephalography, absent somatosensory-evoked potential, absent pupillary or corneal reflexes, presence of myoclonus, and neuron-specific enolase greater than 75 µg/L; accuracy was highest for

  20. Comparison of models for predicting outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease focusing on microsimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Amiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Physicians have difficulty to subjectively estimate the cardiovascular risk of their patients. Using an estimate of global cardiovascular risk could be more relevant to guide decisions than using binary representation (presence or absence of risk factors data. The main aim of the paper is to compare different models of predicting the progress of a coronary artery diseases (CAD to help the decision making of physician. Methods: There are different standard models for predicting risk factors such as models based on logistic regression model, Cox regression model, dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov model and microsimulation model. Each model has its own application which can or cannot use by physicians to make a decision on treatment of each patient. Results: There are five main common models for predicting of outcomes, including models based on logistic regression model (for short-term outcomes, Cox regression model (for intermediate-term outcomes, dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov and microsimulation models (for long-term outcomes. The advantages and disadvantages of these models have been discussed and summarized. Conclusion: Given the complex medical decisions that physicians face in everyday practice, the multiple interrelated factors that play a role in choosing the optimal treatment, and the continuously accumulating new evidence on determinants of outcome and treatment options for CAD, physicians may potentially benefit from a clinical decision support system that accounts for all these considerations. The microsimulation model could provide cardiologists, researchers, and medical students a user-friendly software, which can be used as an intelligent interventional simulator.

  1. Predicting an Optimal Outcome after Radical Prostatectomy: The “Trifecta” Nomogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastham, James A.; Scardino, Peter T.; Kattan, Michael W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The optimal outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for clinically localized prostate cancer is freedom from biochemical recurrence (BCR) along with recovery of continence and erectile function, a so-called trifecta. We evaluated our series of open radical prostatectomy patients to determine the likelihood of this outcome and to develop a nomogram predicting the trifecta. Material and Methods We reviewed records of patients undergoing open RP for clinical stage T1c–T3a prostate cancer at our center during 2000–2006. Men were excluded if they received preoperative hormonal therapy, chemotherapy, or radiation therapy; if their pre-treatment PSA was >50 ng/ml; or if they were impotent or incontinent before RP; 1577 men were included in the study. Freedom from BCR was defined as post-RP PSA <0.2 ng/ml. Continence was defined as not having to wear any protective pads. Potency was defined as erections adequate for intercourse on the majority of attempts, with or without a phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor. Results Mean patient age was 58 years and mean pretreatment PSA was 6.4 ng/ml. A trifecta outcome (cancer-free status with recovery of continence and potency) was achieved in 62% of patients. In a nomogram developed to predict the likelihood of the trifecta, baseline PSA was the major predictive factor. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the nomogram was 0.773, and calibration appeared excellent. Conclusions A trifecta (optimal) outcome can be achieved in the majority of men undergoing RP. The nomogram will permit patients to estimate preoperatively their likelihood of an optimal outcome after RP. PMID:18423693

  2. FDG PET imaging for grading and prediction of outcome in chondrosarcoma patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brenner, Winfried; Eary, Janet F. [Division of Nuclear Medicine, University of Washington Medical Center, 1959 NE Pacific Street, Box 356113, WA 98195-6113, Seattle (United States); Conrad, Ernest U. [Department of Orthopaedics, University of Washington Medical Center, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2004-02-01

    The aims of this study were to assess the potential of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) for tumor grading in chondrosarcoma patients and to evaluate the role of standardized uptake value (SUV) as a parameter for prediction of patient outcome. FDG PET imaging was performed in 31 patients with chondrosarcoma prior to therapy. SUV was calculated for each tumor and correlated to tumor grade and size, and to patient outcome in terms of local relapse or metastatic disease with a mean follow-up period of 48 months. Chondrosarcomas were detectable in all patients. Tumor SUV was 3.38{+-}1.61 for grade I (n=15), 5.44{+-}3.06 for grade II (n=13), and 7.10{+-}2.61 for grade III (n=3). Significant differences were found between patients with and without disease progression: SUV was 6.42{+-}2.70 (n=10) in patients developing recurrent or metastatic disease compared with 3.74{+-}2.22 in patients without relapse (P=0.015). Using a cut-off of 4 for SUV, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for a relapse were 90%, 76%, 64%, and 94%, respectively. Combining tumor grade and SUV, these parameters improved to 90%, 95%, 90%, and 95%, respectively. Pretherapeutic tumor SUV obtained by FDG PET imaging was a useful parameter for tumor grading and prediction of outcome in chondrosarcoma patients. The combination of SUV and histopathologic tumor grade further improved prediction of outcome substantially, allowing identification of patients at high risk for local relapse or metastatic disease. (orig.)

  3. Factors predicting work outcome in Japanese patients with schizophrenia: role of multiple functioning levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chika Sumiyoshi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Functional outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia suggest recovery of cognitive, everyday, and social functioning. Specifically improvement of work status is considered to be most important for their independent living and self-efficacy. The main purposes of the present study were 1 to identify which outcome factors predict occupational functioning, quantified as work hours, and 2 to provide cut-offs on the scales for those factors to attain better work status. Forty-five Japanese patients with schizophrenia and 111 healthy controls entered the study. Cognition, capacity for everyday activities, and social functioning were assessed by the Japanese versions of the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus Battery (MCCB, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief (UPSA-B, and the Social Functioning Scale Individuals’ version modified for the MATRICS-PASS (Modified SFS for PASS, respectively. Potential factors for work outcome were estimated by multiple linear regression analyses (predicting work hours directly and a multiple logistic regression analyses (predicting dichotomized work status based on work hours. ROC curve analyses were performed to determine cut-off points for differentiating between the better- and poor work status. The results showed that a cognitive component, comprising visual/verbal learning and emotional management, and a social functioning component, comprising independent living and vocational functioning, were potential factors for predicting work hours/status. Cut-off points obtained in ROC analyses indicated that 60–70% achievements on the measures of those factors were expected to maintain the better work status. Our findings suggest that improvement on specific aspects of cognitive and social functioning are important for work outcome in patients with schizophrenia.

  4. Factors predicting work outcome in Japanese patients with schizophrenia: role of multiple functioning levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumiyoshi, Chika; Harvey, Philip D; Takaki, Manabu; Okahisa, Yuko; Sato, Taku; Sora, Ichiro; Nuechterlein, Keith H; Subotnik, Kenneth L; Sumiyoshi, Tomiki

    2015-09-01

    Functional outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia suggest recovery of cognitive, everyday, and social functioning. Specifically improvement of work status is considered to be most important for their independent living and self-efficacy. The main purposes of the present study were 1) to identify which outcome factors predict occupational functioning, quantified as work hours, and 2) to provide cut-offs on the scales for those factors to attain better work status. Forty-five Japanese patients with schizophrenia and 111 healthy controls entered the study. Cognition, capacity for everyday activities, and social functioning were assessed by the Japanese versions of the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus Battery (MCCB), the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief (UPSA-B), and the Social Functioning Scale Individuals' version modified for the MATRICS-PASS (Modified SFS for PASS), respectively. Potential factors for work outcome were estimated by multiple linear regression analyses (predicting work hours directly) and a multiple logistic regression analyses (predicting dichotomized work status based on work hours). ROC curve analyses were performed to determine cut-off points for differentiating between the better- and poor work status. The results showed that a cognitive component, comprising visual/verbal learning and emotional management, and a social functioning component, comprising independent living and vocational functioning, were potential factors for predicting work hours/status. Cut-off points obtained in ROC analyses indicated that 60-70% achievements on the measures of those factors were expected to maintain the better work status. Our findings suggest that improvement on specific aspects of cognitive and social functioning are important for work outcome in patients with schizophrenia.

  5. A balance of activity in brain control and reward systems predicts self-regulatory outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Lopez, Richard B.; Chen, Pin-Hao A.; Huckins, Jeremy F.; Hofmann, Wilhelm; Kelley, William M.; Heatherton, Todd F.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Previous neuroimaging work has shown that increased reward-related activity following exposure to food cues is predictive of self-control failure. The balance model suggests that self-regulation failures result from an imbalance in reward and executive control mechanisms. However, an open question is whether the relative balance of activity in brain systems associated with executive control (vs reward) supports self-regulatory outcomes when people encounter tempting cues in daily lif...

  6. Early Prediction and Outcome of Septic Encephalopathy in Acute Stroke Patients With Nosocomial Coma

    OpenAIRE

    Tong, Dao-Ming; Zhou, Ye-Ting; Wang, Guang-Sheng; Chen, Xiao-Dong; Yang, Tong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Background Septic encephalopathy (SE) is the most common acute encephalopathy in ICU; however, little attention has been focused on risk of SE in the course of acute stroke. Our aim is to investigate the early prediction and outcome of SE in stroke patients with nosocomial coma (NC). Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted in an ICU of the tertiary teaching hospital in China from January 2006 to December 2009. Ninety-four acute stroke patients with NC were grouped according to with...

  7. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    OpenAIRE

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus BM; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predict...

  8. Plastic Surgeon Expertise in Predicting Breast Reconstruction Outcomes for Patient Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement S. Sun, MS

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: The use of individual plastic surgeon–elicited probability information is not encouraged unless the individual’s prediction skill has been evaluated. In the absence of this information, a group consensus on the probability of outcomes is preferred. Without a large evidence base for calculating probabilities, estimates assessed from a group of plastic surgeons may be acceptable for purposes of breast reconstruction decision analysis.

  9. Type of incision does not predict abdominal wall outcome after emergency surgery for colonic anastomotic leakage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kristian Kiim; Oma, Erling; Harling, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for anastomotic leakage were included with a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Incisional hernia occurred in 41 of 227 (15.3%) patients undergoing midline incision compared with 14 of 81 (14.7%) following transverse incision, P = 1.00. After adjusting for confounders, there was no association between the type...... not predict abdominal wall outcome after emergency surgery for colonic anastomotic leakage....

  10. Cross-trial prediction of treatment outcome in depression: a machine learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chekroud, Adam Mourad; Zotti, Ryan Joseph; Shehzad, Zarrar; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Johnson, Marcia K; Trivedi, Madhukar H; Cannon, Tyrone D; Krystal, John Harrison; Corlett, Philip Robert

    2016-03-01

    Antidepressant treatment efficacy is low, but might be improved by matching patients to interventions. At present, clinicians have no empirically validated mechanisms to assess whether a patient with depression will respond to a specific antidepressant. We aimed to develop an algorithm to assess whether patients will achieve symptomatic remission from a 12-week course of citalopram. We used patient-reported data from patients with depression (n=4041, with 1949 completers) from level 1 of the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D; ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00021528) to identify variables that were most predictive of treatment outcome, and used these variables to train a machine-learning model to predict clinical remission. We externally validated the model in the escitalopram treatment group (n=151) of an independent clinical trial (Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes [COMED]; ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00590863). We identified 25 variables that were most predictive of treatment outcome from 164 patient-reportable variables, and used these to train the model. The model was internally cross-validated, and predicted outcomes in the STAR*D cohort with accuracy significantly above chance (64·6% [SD 3·2]; p<0·0001). The model was externally validated in the escitalopram treatment group (N=151) of COMED (accuracy 59·6%, p=0.043). The model also performed significantly above chance in a combined escitalopram-buproprion treatment group in COMED (n=134; accuracy 59·7%, p=0·023), but not in a combined venlafaxine-mirtazapine group (n=140; accuracy 51·4%, p=0·53), suggesting specificity of the model to underlying mechanisms. Building statistical models by mining existing clinical trial data can enable prospective identification of patients who are likely to respond to a specific antidepressant. Yale University. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The role of marshall and rotterdam score in predicting 30-day outcome of traumatic brain injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siahaan, A. M. P.; Akbar, T. Y. M.; Nasution, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, especially in the young population. To predict the outcome of TBI, Marshall, and Rotterdam–CT Scan based scoring was mostly used. As many studies showed conflicting results regarding of the usage of both scoring, this study aims to determine the correlation between Rotterdam and Marshall scoring system with outcome in 30 days and found correlation among them. In 120 subjects with TBI that admitted to Adam Malik General Hospital, we found a significant association of both scorings with the 30-day Glasgow Outcome Score. Therefore, we recommend the use of Marshall and Rotterdam CT Score in initial assessment as a good predictor for patients with TBI.

  12. A simplified donor risk index for predicting outcome after deceased donor kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Christopher J E; Johnson, Rachel J; Birch, Rhiannon; Collett, Dave; Bradley, J Andrew

    2012-02-15

    We sought to determine the deceased donor factors associated with outcome after kidney transplantation and to develop a clinically applicable Kidney Donor Risk Index. Data from the UK Transplant Registry on 7620 adult recipients of adult deceased donor kidney transplants between 2000 and 2007 inclusive were analyzed. Donor factors potentially influencing transplant outcome were investigated using Cox regression, adjusting for significant recipient and transplant factors. A United Kingdom Kidney Donor Risk Index was derived from the model and validated. Donor age was the most significant factor predicting poor transplant outcome (hazard ratio for 18-39 and 60+ years relative to 40-59 years was 0.78 and 1.49, respectively, Pinformed consent.

  13. Noninvasive work of breathing improves prediction of post-extubation outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banner, Michael J; Euliano, Neil R; Martin, A Daniel; Al-Rawas, Nawar; Layon, A Joseph; Gabrielli, Andrea

    2012-02-01

    We hypothesized that non-invasively determined work of breathing per minute (WOB(N)/min) (esophageal balloon not required) may be useful for predicting extubation outcome, i.e., appropriate work of breathing values may be associated with extubation success, while inappropriately increased values may be associated with failure. Adult candidates for extubation were divided into a training set (n = 38) to determine threshold values of indices for assessing extubation and a prospective validation set (n = 59) to determine the predictive power of the threshold values for patients successfully extubated and those who failed extubation. All were evaluated for extubation during a spontaneous breathing trial (5 cmH(2)O pressure support ventilation, 5 cmH(2)O positive end expiratory pressure) using routine clinical practice standards. WOB(N)/min data were blinded to attending physicians. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of all extubation indices were determined. AUC for WOB(N)/min was 0.96 and significantly greater (p indices. WOB(N)/min had a specificity of 0.83, the highest sensitivity at 0.96, positive predictive value at 0.84, and negative predictive value at 0.96 compared to all indices. For 95% of those successfully extubated, WOB(N)/min was ≤10 J/min. WOB(N)/min had the greatest overall predictive accuracy for extubation compared to traditional indices. WOB(N)/min warrants consideration for use in a complementary manner with spontaneous breathing pattern data for predicting extubation outcome.

  14. The P300 in middle cerebral artery strokes or hemorrhages: Outcome predictions and source localization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehlers, Mana R; López Herrero, Carmen; Kastrup, Andreas; Hildebrandt, Helmut

    2015-08-01

    There are no reliable outcome predictors for severely impaired patients suffering from large infarctions or hemorrhages within the territory of the middle cerebral artery. This study investigated whether the amplitude of the event-related potential (ERP) component P300 predicts if a patient will be transferred to the next stage of rehabilitation (positive outcome) or to a nursing home (negative outcome). The second goal was to look for lesion locations determining the generation of the P300 amplitude. Forty-seven patients performed an auditory oddball task to elicit the P300 and were assessed with different scores for activities of daily living (ADL). Patients were divided in two groups according to their outcome. P300 amplitudes were compared between these groups controlling for age and gender. Post-hoc analyses were performed to analyse the relationship between P300 amplitude and neurological outcome scores. In addition, lesion overlaps were created to detect which lesion pattern affects P300 generation. Patients with a positive outcome showed higher P300 amplitudes at frontal electrode sites than those with a negative outcome. P300 amplitude correlated with ADL score difference. Lesions in the superior temporal gyrus, middle and inferior frontal and prefrontal regions led to visibly diminished P300 amplitudes. The findings suggest that an impairment of attention (P300 amplitude reduction) negatively influences successful neurological rehabilitation. Left superior temporal lobe and the left premotor/prefrontal areas are essential brain areas for the generation of the P300. P300 amplitude may be used as an outcome predictor for severely impaired patients suffering from middle cerebral artery strokes or hemorrhages. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Factors predicting outcome in whiplash injury: a systematic meta-review of prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrami, Pooria; Armstrong, Elizabeth; Naylor, Justine M; Harris, Ian A

    2017-03-01

    Whiplash injuries are among the leading injuries related to car crashes and it is important to determine the prognostic factors that predict the outcome of patients with these injuries. This meta-review aims to identify factors that are associated with outcome after acute whiplash injury. A systematic search for all systematic reviews on outcome prediction of acute whiplash injury was conducted across several electronic databases. The search was limited to publications in English, and there were no geographical or time of publication restrictions. Quality appraisal was conducted with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews. The initial search yielded 207 abstracts; of these, 195 were subsequently excluded by topic or method. Twelve systematic reviews with moderate quality were subsequently included in the analysis. Post-injury pain and disability, whiplash grades, cold hyperalgesia, post-injury anxiety, catastrophizing, compensation and legal factors, and early healthcare use were associated with continuation of pain and disability in patients with whiplash injury. Post-injury magnetic resonance imaging or radiographic findings, motor dysfunctions, or factors related to the collision were not associated with continuation of pain and disability in patients with whiplash injury. Evidence on demographic and three psychological factors and prior pain was conflicting, and there is a shortage of evidence related to the significance of genetic factors. This meta-review suggests an association between initial pain and anxiety and the outcome of acute whiplash injury, and less evidence for an association with physical factors. Level 1.

  16. 2009 IOM guidelines for gestational weight gain: how well do they predict outcomes across ethnic groups?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanolkar, Amal R; Hanley, Gillian E; Koupil, Ilona; Janssen, Patricia A

    2017-11-13

    To determine whether the Institute Of Medicine's (IOM) 2009 guidelines for weight-gain during pregnancy are predictive of maternal and infant outcomes in ethnic minority populations. We designed a population-based study using administrative data on 181,948 women who delivered live singleton births in Washington State between 2006-2008. We examined risks of gestational hypertension, preeclampsia/eclampsia, cesarean delivery, and extended hospital stay in White, Black, Native-American, East-Asian, Hispanic, South-Asian and Hawaiian/Pacific islander women according to whether they gained more or less weight during pregnancy than recommended by IOM guidelines. We also examined risks of neonatal outcomes including Apgar score IOM guidelines for weight gain during pregnancy reduces risk for various adverse maternal outcomes in all ethnic groups studied. However, the guidelines were less predictive of infant outcomes with the exception of small and large for gestational age. GWG: Gestational weight gain; IOM/NRC; Institute of Medicine and National Research Council; NICU: Neonatal intensive care need for ventilation; SGA: Small for gestational age; LGA: Large for gestational age; BERD: Birth Events Records Database; CHARS: Comprehensive Hospital Discharge Abstract Reporting System; ICD: International Classification of Disease; LMP: Last menstrual period; OR: Odds ratio.

  17. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

  18. Does head CT scan pathology predict outcome after mild traumatic brain injury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lannsjö, M; Backheden, M; Johansson, U; Af Geijerstam, J L; Borg, J

    2013-01-01

    More evidence is needed to forward our understanding of the key determinants of poor outcome after mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). A large, prospective, national cohort of patients was studied to analyse the effect of head CT scan pathology on the outcome. One-thousand two-hundred and sixty-two patients with MTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale score 15) at 39 emergency departments completed a study protocol including acute head CT scan examination and follow-up by the Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire and the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 3 months after MTBI. Binary logistic regression was used for the assessment of prediction ability. In 751 men (60%) and 511 women (40%), with a mean age of 30 years (median 21, range 6-94), we observed relevant or suspect relevant pathologic findings on acute CT scan in 52 patients (4%). Patients aged below 30 years reported better outcome both with respect to symptoms and GOSE as compared to patients in older age groups. Men reported better outcome than women as regards symptoms (OR 0.64, CI 0.49-0.85 for ≥3 symptoms) and global function (OR 0.60, CI 0.39-0.92 for GOSE 1-6). Pathology on acute CT scan examination had no effect on self-reported symptoms or global function at 3 months after MTBI. Female gender and older age predicted a less favourable outcome. The findings support the view that other factors than brain injury deserve attention to minimize long-term complaints after MTBI. © 2012 The Author(s) European Journal of Neurology © 2012 EFNS.

  19. Measure of functional independence dominates discharge outcome prediction after inpatient rehabilitation for stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Allen W; Therneau, Terry M; Schultz, Billie A; Niewczyk, Paulette M; Granger, Carl V

    2015-04-01

    Identifying clinical data acquired at inpatient rehabilitation admission for stroke that accurately predict key outcomes at discharge could inform the development of customized plans of care to achieve favorable outcomes. The purpose of this analysis was to use a large comprehensive national data set to consider a wide range of clinical elements known at admission to identify those that predict key outcomes at rehabilitation discharge. Sample data were obtained from the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation data set with the diagnosis of stroke for the years 2005 through 2007. This data set includes demographic, administrative, and medical variables collected at admission and discharge and uses the FIM (functional independence measure) instrument to assess functional independence. Primary outcomes of interest were functional independence measure gain, length of stay, and discharge to home. The sample included 148,367 people (75% white; mean age, 70.6±13.1 years; 97% with ischemic stroke) admitted to inpatient rehabilitation a mean of 8.2±12 days after symptom onset. The total functional independence measure score, the functional independence measure motor subscore, and the case-mix group were equally the strongest predictors for any of the primary outcomes. The most clinically relevant 3-variable model used the functional independence measure motor subscore, age, and walking distance at admission (r(2)=0.107). No important additional effect for any other variable was detected when added to this model. This analysis shows that a measure of functional independence in motor performance and age at rehabilitation hospital admission for stroke are predominant predictors of outcome at discharge in a uniquely large US national data set. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Remote Health Monitoring Outcome Success Prediction Using Baseline and First Month Intervention Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Sideris, Costas; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Kalantarian, Haik; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Eastwood, Jo-Ann

    2017-03-01

    Remote health monitoring (RHM) systems are becoming more widely adopted by clinicians and hospitals to remotely monitor and communicate with patients while optimizing clinician time, decreasing hospital costs, and improving quality of care. In the Women's heart health study (WHHS), we developed Wanda-cardiovascular disease (CVD), where participants received healthy lifestyle education followed by six months of technology support and reinforcement. Wanda-CVD is a smartphone-based RHM system designed to assist participants in reducing identified CVD risk factors through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. Many participants benefitted from this RHM system. In response to the variance in participants' success, we developed a framework to identify classification schemes that predicted successful and unsuccessful participants. We analyzed both contextual baseline features and data from the first month of intervention such as activity, blood pressure, and questionnaire responses transmitted through the smartphone. A prediction tool can aid clinicians and scientists in identifying participants who may optimally benefit from the RHM system. Targeting therapies could potentially save healthcare costs, clinician, and participant time and resources. Our classification scheme yields RHM outcome success predictions with an F-measure of 91.9%, and identifies behaviors during the first month of intervention that help determine outcome success. We also show an improvement in prediction by using intervention-based smartphone data. Results from the WHHS study demonstrates that factors such as the variation in first month intervention response to the consumption of nuts, beans, and seeds in the diet help predict patient RHM protocol outcome success in a group of young Black women ages 25-45.

  1. Prediction of rat behavior outcomes in memory tasks using functional connections among neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Lu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analyzing the neuronal organizational structures and studying the changes in the behavior of the organism is key to understanding cognitive functions of the brain. Although some studies have indicated that spatiotemporal firing patterns of neuronal populations have a certain relationship with the behavioral responses, the issues of whether there are any relationships between the functional networks comprised of these cortical neurons and behavioral tasks and whether it is possible to take advantage of these networks to predict correct and incorrect outcomes of single trials of animals are still unresolved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper presents a new method of analyzing the structures of whole-recorded neuronal functional networks (WNFNs and local neuronal circuit groups (LNCGs. The activity of these neurons was recorded in several rats. The rats performed two different behavioral tasks, the Y-maze task and the U-maze task. Using the results of the assessment of the WNFNs and LNCGs, this paper describes a realization procedure for predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The methodology consists of four main parts: construction of WNFNs from recorded neuronal spike trains, partitioning the WNFNs into the optimal LNCGs using social community analysis, unsupervised clustering of all trials from each dataset into two different clusters, and predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The results show that WNFNs and LNCGs correlate with the behavior of the animal. The U-maze datasets show higher accuracy for unsupervised clustering results than those from the Y-maze task, and these datasets can be used to predict behavioral responses effectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of the present study suggest that a methodology proposed in this paper is suitable for analysis of the characteristics of neuronal functional networks and the prediction of rat behavior. These types of structures in cortical

  2. Lactate Parameters Predict Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung Hoon; Min, Yang Won; Bae, Joohwan; Lee, Hyuk; Min, Byung Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Rhee, Poong Lyul; Kim, Jae J

    2017-11-01

    The predictive role of lactate in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) has been suggested. This study evaluated several lactate parameters in terms of predicting outcomes of bleeding patients and sought to establish a new scoring model by combining lactate parameters and the AIMS65 score. A total of 114 patients with NVUGIB who underwent serum lactate level testing at least twice and endoscopic hemostasis within 24 hours after admission were retrospectively analyzed. The associations between five lactate parameters and clinical outcomes were evaluated and the predictive power of lactate parameter combined AIMS65s (L-AIMS65s) and AIMS56 scoring was compared. The most common cause of bleeding was gastric ulcer (48.2%). Lactate clearance rate (LCR) was associated with 30-day rebleeding (odds ratio [OR], 0.931; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.872-0.994; P = 0.033). Initial lactate (OR, 1.313; 95% CI, 1.050-1.643; P = 0.017), maximal lactate (OR, 1.277; 95% CI, 1.037-1.573; P = 0.021), and average lactate (OR, 1.535; 95% CI, 1.137-2.072; P = 0.005) levels were associated with 30-day mortality. Initial lactate (OR, 1.213; 95% CI, 1.027-1.432; P = 0.023), maximal lactate (OR, 1.271; 95% CI, 1.074-1.504; P = 0.005), and average lactate (OR, 1.501; 95% CI, 1.150-1.959; P = 0.003) levels were associated with admission over 7 days. Although L-AIMS65s showed the highest area under the curve for prediction of each outcome, differences between L-AIMS65s and AIMS65 did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, lactate parameters have a prognostic role in patients with NVUGIB. However, they do not increase the predictive power of AIMS65 when combined. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

  3. A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

    2009-04-01

    Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

  4. Do treatment quality indicators predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigory Sidorenkov

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Landmark clinical trials have led to optimal treatment recommendations for patients with diabetes. Whether optimal treatment is actually delivered in practice is even more important than the efficacy of the drugs tested in trials. To this end, treatment quality indicators have been developed and tested against intermediate outcomes. No studies have tested whether these treatment quality indicators also predict hard patient outcomes. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using data collected from >10.000 diabetes patients in the Groningen Initiative to Analyze Type 2 Treatment (GIANTT database and Dutch Hospital Data register. Included quality indicators measured glucose-, lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status and treatment intensification. Hard patient outcome was the composite of cardiovascular events and all-cause death. Associations were tested using Cox regression adjusting for confounding, reporting hazard ratios (HR with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Lipid and albuminuria treatment status, but not blood pressure lowering treatment status, were associated with the composite outcome (HR = 0.77, 0.67-0.88; HR = 0.75, 0.59-0.94. Glucose lowering treatment status was associated with the composite outcome only in patients with an elevated HbA1c level (HR = 0.72, 0.56-0.93. Treatment intensification with glucose-lowering but not with lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering drugs was associated with the outcome (HR = 0.73, 0.60-0.89. CONCLUSION: Treatment quality indicators measuring lipid- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status are valid quality measures, since they predict a lower risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with diabetes. The quality indicators for glucose-lowering treatment should only be used for restricted populations with elevated HbA1c levels. Intriguingly, the tested indicators for blood pressure-lowering treatment did not predict patient

  5. Does impulsivity predict outcome in treatment for binge eating disorder? A multimodal investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manasse, Stephanie M; Espel, Hallie M; Schumacher, Leah M; Kerrigan, Stephanie G; Zhang, Fengqing; Forman, Evan M; Juarascio, Adrienne S

    2016-10-01

    Multiple dimensions of impulsivity (e.g., affect-driven impulsivity, impulsive inhibition - both general and food-specific, and impulsive decision-making) are associated with binge eating pathology cross-sectionally, yet the literature on whether impulsivity predicts treatment outcome is limited. The present pilot study explored impulsivity-related predictors of 20-week outcome in a small open trial (n = 17) of a novel treatment for binge eating disorder. Overall, dimensions of impulsivity related to emotions (i.e., negative urgency) and food cues emerged as predictors of treatment outcomes (i.e., binge eating frequency and global eating pathology as measured by the Eating Disorders Examination), while more general measures of impulsivity were statistically unrelated to global eating pathology or binge frequency. Specifically, those with higher levels of negative urgency at baseline experienced slower and less pronounced benefit from treatment, and those with higher food-specific impulsivity had more severe global eating pathology at baseline that was consistent at post-treatment and follow-up. These preliminary findings suggest that patients high in negative urgency and with poor response inhibition to food cues may benefit from augmentation of existing treatments to achieve optimal outcomes. Future research will benefit from replication with a larger sample, parsing out the role of different dimensions of impulsivity in treatment outcome for eating disorders, and identifying how treatment can be improved to accommodate higher levels of baseline impulsivity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Self-responsibility predicts the successful outcome of coronary artery bypass surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Eales

    2004-01-01

    and their spouses/care-givers had a greater knowledge about the disease and the risk factor modification (p=0.01; p<0.01, and twelve months after the operation the patients are satisfied with the outcome of the operation (p<0.01. Conclusions: A stepwise logistic regression established that the acceptance of self-responsibility was the strongest  factor predicting an improved quality of life after CABG surgery. Patients who did not accept responsibility did not have an improved quality of life irrespective of the impact of all other parameters. Patients' satisfaction with the outcome of the operative procedure is an important predictor of the acceptance of self-responsibility. Realistic expectations of the outcome of CABG surgery will improve patients' satisfaction with the outcome. The knowledge of the spouse is a significant factor in the patients' acceptance of self-responsibility. Knowledge of the chronic nature of their disease as well as risk factor modification and realistic expectations of the outcome of CABG surgery influences patientsacceptance of self-responsibility.

  7. Proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy: Predictive validity for adverse outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramchandani, Manisha; Siddiqui, Muniza; Kanwar, Raveena; Lakha, Manwinder; Phi, Linda; Giacomelli, Luca; Chiappelli, Francesco

    2011-01-06

    The rate of preterm birth is a public health concern worldwide because it is increasing and efforts to prevent it have failed. We report a Clinically Relevant Complex Systematic Review (CSCSR) designed to identify and evaluate the best available evidence in support of the association between periodontal status in women and pregnancy outcome of preterm low birth weight. We hypothesize that the traditional limits of research synthesis must be expanded to incorporate a translational component. As a proof-of-concept model, we propose that this CSCSR can yield greater validity of efficacy and effectiveness through supplementing its recommendations with data of the proteomic signature of periodontal disease in pregnancy, which can contribute to addressing specifically the predictive validity for adverse outcomes. For this CRCSR, systematic reviews were identified through The National Library of MedicinePubmed, The Cochrane library, CINAHL, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and the American Dental Association web library. Independent reviewers quantified the relevance and quality of this literature with R-AMSTAR. Homogeneity and inter-rater reliability testing were supplemented with acceptable sampling analysis. Research synthesis outcomes were analyzed qualitatively toward a Bayesian inference, and converge to demonstrate a definite association between maternal periodontal disease and pregnancy outcome. This CRCSR limits heterogeneity in terms of periodontal disease, outcome measure, selection bias, uncontrolled confounders and effect modifiers. Taken together, the translational CRCSR model we propose suggests that further research is advocated to explore the fundamental mechanisms underlying this association, from a molecular and proteomic perspective.

  8. Serum tenascin-C predicts severity and outcome of acute intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin-Guo; Huangfu, Xue-Qin; Tao, Bo; Zhong, Guan-Jin; Le, Zhou-Di

    2018-06-01

    Tenascin-C is a matricellular protein related to brain injury. We studied serum tenascin-C in acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and examined the associations with severity and outcome following the acute event. Tenascin-C samples were obtained from 162 patients with acute hemorrhagic stroke and 162 healthy controls. Poor 90-day functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score > 2. Early neurological deterioration (END) and hematoma growth (HG) were recorded at 24 h. Patients had higher tenascin-C levels than controls. Tenascin-C levels were positively correlated with hematoma volume or National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at baseline. Elevated tenascin-C levels were independently associated with END, HG, 90-day mortality and poor functional outcome. Moreover, tenascin-C levels significantly predicted END, HG and 90-day outcomes under receiver operating characteristic curves. An increase in serum tenascin-C level is associated with an adverse outcome in ICH patients, supporting the potential role of serum tenascin-C as a prognostic biomarker for hemorrhagic stroke. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Computed tomography of the brain in predicting outcome of traumatic intracranial haemorrhage in Malaysian patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azian, A.A.; Nurulazman, A.A.; Shuaib, I.L.; Mahayidin, M.; Ariff, A.R.; Naing, N.N.; Abdullah, J.

    2001-01-01

    Head injury is a significant economic, social and medical problem all over the world. Road accidents are the most frequent cause of head injury in Malaysia which highest risk in the young (15 to 24 years old). The associated outcomes include good recovery, possibility of death for the severely injured, which may cause disruption of the lives of their family members. It is important to predict the outcome as it will provide sound information to assist clinicians in Malaysia in providing prognostic information to patients and their families, to assess the effectiveness of different modes of treatment in promoting recovery and to document the significance of head injury as a public health problem. Results. A total of 103 cases with intracranial hemorrhage i.e. intracerebral hemorrhage, extradural hemorrhage, subdural hemorrhage, intraventricular hemorrhage, hemorrhagic contusion and subarachnoid hemorrhage, following motor vehicle accidents was undertaken to study factors contributing to either good or poor outcome according to the Glasgow outcome scale. Patients below 12 years of age were excluded. The end point of the study was taken at 24 months post injury. The selected variables were incorporated into models generated by logistic regression techniques of multivariate analysis to see the significant predictors of outcome as well as the correlation between the CT findings with GCS. Conclusion. Significant predictors of outcome were GCS on arrival in the accident emergency department, pupillary reflex and the CT scan findings. The CT predictors of outcome include ICH, EDH, IVH, present of SAH, site of ICH, volumes of EDH and SDH as well as midline shift. (author)

  10. 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies: Presurgical evaluation, postoperative outcome and predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogias, Evangelos; Klingler, Jan-Helge; Urbach, Horst; Scheiwe, Christian; Schmeiser, Barbara; Doostkam, Soroush; Zentner, Josef; Altenmüller, Dirk-Matthias

    2017-12-01

    To investigate presurgical diagnostic modalities, clinical and seizure outcome as well as predictive factors after resective epilepsy surgery in 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies. This retrospective study comprises 26 patients (11 males/15 females, mean age 34±12years, range 13-50 years) with 3 Tesla MRI-negative focal epilepsies who underwent resective epilepsy surgery. Non-invasive and invasive presurgical diagnostic modalities, type and localization of resection, clinical and epileptological outcome with a minimum follow-up of 1year (range 1-11 years, mean 2.5±2.3years) after surgery as well as outcome predictors were evaluated. All patients underwent invasive video-EEG monitoring after implantation of intracerebral depth and/or subdural electrodes. Ten patients received temporal and 16 extratemporal or multilobar (n=4) resections. There was no perioperative death or permanent morbidity. Overall, 12 of 26 patients (46%) were completely seizure-free (Engel IA) and 65% had a favorable outcome (Engel I-II). In particular, seizure-free ratio was 40% in the temporal and 50% in the extratemporal group. In the temporal group, long duration of epilepsy correlated with poor seizure outcome, whereas congruent unilateral FDG-PET hypometabolism correlated with a favorable outcome. In almost two thirds of temporal and extratemporal epilepsies defined as "non-lesional" by 3 Tesla MRI criteria, a favorable postoperative seizure outcome (Engel I-II) can be achieved with accurate multimodal presurgical evaluation including intracranial EEG recordings. In the temporal group, most favorable results were obtained when FDG-PET displayed congruent unilateral hypometabolism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Automated prediction of tissue outcome after acute ischemic stroke in computed tomography perfusion images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Pieter C.; Bennink, Edwin; de Jong, Hugo; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; Viergever, Max A.; Dankbaar, Jan Willem

    2015-03-01

    Assessment of the extent of cerebral damage on admission in patients with acute ischemic stroke could play an important role in treatment decision making. Computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging can be used to determine the extent of damage. However, clinical application is hindered by differences among vendors and used methodology. As a result, threshold based methods and visual assessment of CTP images has not yet shown to be useful in treatment decision making and predicting clinical outcome. Preliminary results in MR studies have shown the benefit of using supervised classifiers for predicting tissue outcome, but this has not been demonstrated for CTP. We present a novel method for the automatic prediction of tissue outcome by combining multi-parametric CTP images into a tissue outcome probability map. A supervised classification scheme was developed to extract absolute and relative perfusion values from processed CTP images that are summarized by a trained classifier into a likelihood of infarction. Training was performed using follow-up CT scans of 20 acute stroke patients with complete recanalization of the vessel that was occluded on admission. Infarcted regions were annotated by expert neuroradiologists. Multiple classifiers were evaluated in a leave-one-patient-out strategy for their discriminating performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistics. Results showed that a RandomForest classifier performed optimally with an area under the ROC of 0.90 for discriminating infarct tissue. The obtained results are an improvement over existing thresholding methods and are in line with results found in literature where MR perfusion was used.

  12. An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

    2017-01-01

    Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting

  13. Deep learning for tissue microarray image-based outcome prediction in patients with colorectal cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bychkov, Dmitrii; Turkki, Riku; Haglund, Caj; Linder, Nina; Lundin, Johan

    2016-03-01

    Recent advances in computer vision enable increasingly accurate automated pattern classification. In the current study we evaluate whether a convolutional neural network (CNN) can be trained to predict disease outcome in patients with colorectal cancer based on images of tumor tissue microarray samples. We compare the prognostic accuracy of CNN features extracted from the whole, unsegmented tissue microarray spot image, with that of CNN features extracted from the epithelial and non-epithelial compartments, respectively. The prognostic accuracy of visually assessed histologic grade is used as a reference. The image data set consists of digitized hematoxylin-eosin (H and E) stained tissue microarray samples obtained from 180 patients with colorectal cancer. The patient samples represent a variety of histological grades, have data available on a series of clinicopathological variables including long-term outcome and ground truth annotations performed by experts. The CNN features extracted from images of the epithelial tissue compartment significantly predicted outcome (hazard ratio (HR) 2.08; CI95% 1.04-4.16; area under the curve (AUC) 0.66) in a test set of 60 patients, as compared to the CNN features extracted from unsegmented images (HR 1.67; CI95% 0.84-3.31, AUC 0.57) and visually assessed histologic grade (HR 1.96; CI95% 0.99-3.88, AUC 0.61). As a conclusion, a deep-learning classifier can be trained to predict outcome of colorectal cancer based on images of H and E stained tissue microarray samples and the CNN features extracted from the epithelial compartment only resulted in a prognostic discrimination comparable to that of visually determined histologic grade.

  14. CAsubtype: An R Package to Identify Gene Sets Predictive of Cancer Subtypes and Clinical Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Hualei; Tong, Pan; Zhao, Xiaodong; Sun, Jielin; Li, Hua

    2018-03-01

    In the past decade, molecular classification of cancer has gained high popularity owing to its high predictive power on clinical outcomes as compared with traditional methods commonly used in clinical practice. In particular, using gene expression profiles, recent studies have successfully identified a number of gene sets for the delineation of cancer subtypes that are associated with distinct prognosis. However, identification of such gene sets remains a laborious task due to the lack of tools with flexibility, integration and ease of use. To reduce the burden, we have developed an R package, CAsubtype, to efficiently identify gene sets predictive of cancer subtypes and clinical outcomes. By integrating more than 13,000 annotated gene sets, CAsubtype provides a comprehensive repertoire of candidates for new cancer subtype identification. For easy data access, CAsubtype further includes the gene expression and clinical data of more than 2000 cancer patients from TCGA. CAsubtype first employs principal component analysis to identify gene sets (from user-provided or package-integrated ones) with robust principal components representing significantly large variation between cancer samples. Based on these principal components, CAsubtype visualizes the sample distribution in low-dimensional space for better understanding of the distinction between samples and classifies samples into subgroups with prevalent clustering algorithms. Finally, CAsubtype performs survival analysis to compare the clinical outcomes between the identified subgroups, assessing their clinical value as potentially novel cancer subtypes. In conclusion, CAsubtype is a flexible and well-integrated tool in the R environment to identify gene sets for cancer subtype identification and clinical outcome prediction. Its simple R commands and comprehensive data sets enable efficient examination of the clinical value of any given gene set, thus facilitating hypothesis generating and testing in biological and

  15. Parkinsonian motor impairment predicts personality domains related to genetic risk and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan L; Calvó, María; Padilla, Eduardo; Balda, Mara; Alemán, Gabriela González; Florenzano, Néstor V; Guerrero, Gonzalo; Kamis, Danielle; Rangeon, Beatriz Molina; Bourdieu, Mercedes; Strejilevich, Sergio A; Conesa, Horacio A; Escobar, Javier I; Zwir, Igor; Cloninger, C Robert; de Erausquin, Gabriel A

    2017-01-01

    Identifying endophenotypes of schizophrenia is of critical importance and has profound implications on clinical practice. Here we propose an innovative approach to clarify the mechanims through which temperament and character deviance relates to risk for schizophrenia and predict long-term treatment outcomes. We recruited 61 antipsychotic naïve subjects with chronic schizophrenia, 99 unaffected relatives, and 68 healthy controls from rural communities in the Central Andes. Diagnosis was ascertained with the Schedules of Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry; parkinsonian motor impairment was measured with the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale; mesencephalic parenchyma was evaluated with transcranial ultrasound; and personality traits were assessed using the Temperament and Character Inventory. Ten-year outcome data was available for ~40% of the index cases. Patients with schizophrenia had higher harm avoidance and self-transcendence (ST), and lower reward dependence (RD), cooperativeness (CO), and self-directedness (SD). Unaffected relatives had higher ST and lower CO and SD. Parkinsonism reliably predicted RD, CO, and SD after correcting for age and sex. The average duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) was over 5 years. Further, SD was anticorrelated with DUP and antipsychotic dosing at follow-up. Baseline DUP was related to antipsychotic dose-years. Further, 'explosive/borderline', 'methodical/obsessive', and 'disorganized/schizotypal' personality profiles were associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. Parkinsonism predicts core personality features and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia. Our study suggests that RD, CO, and SD are endophenotypes of the disease that may, in part, be mediated by dopaminergic function. Further, SD is an important determinant of treatment course and outcome.

  16. Pretreatment Prediction of the Outcomes of Intranasal Steroid Sprays in Cases with Inferior Turbinate Hypertrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karataş, Abdullah

    2017-09-01

    Intranasal steroid sprays (INSS) are frequently prescribed for treating inferior turbinate hypertrophy (ITH). Complications due to the long-term application of INSS such as crusting, epistaxis, nasal mucosa dryness, and septal perforation may occur. Predicting patients who would benefit from INSS early might lower treatment costs and complication rates. We examined the predictive value of nasal decongestant response rates for the outcomes of INSS in ITH. Fifty patients with bilateral ITH were included in two groups: patients benefiting from INSS and those not benefiting. Nasal airflow was assessed by peak nasal inspiratory flow (PNIF) measurement in all cases. Measurements were taken three times: before and after the application of nasal decongestant sprays and after the application of INSS. In both groups, the nasal air flow rates significantly increased after the application of nasal decongestant sprays; however, the nasal decongestant response rates were higher in the group with patients benefiting from INSS. There was a strong correlation between the nasal air flow rates measured after the application of nasal decongestant sprays and after the application of INSS. The cut-off value for the relationship between increased nasal air flow rates after the application of nasal decongestant sprays and outcomes of INSS was 23%. Measurement of nasal airflow increase rate after the application of nasal decongestant sprays is a simple and easy method for the early prediction of the outcomes of INSS in ITH. A higher than 23% increase in nasal air flow rates after the application of nasal decongestant sprays indicates much better outcomes of INSS for patients.

  17. Nucleated red blood cells and early EEG: predicting Sarnat stage and two year outcome.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Walsh, B H

    2012-01-31

    AIMS: Hypoxic Ischaemic Encephalopathy (HIE) causes characteristic changes of the electroencephalogram (EEG), and a raised Nucleated Red Blood Cell (NRBC) count compared to controls. We wished to examine whether combining these markers could improve their ability to predict HIE severity in the first 24h. METHODS: Term infants with HIE were recruited. NRBC count and continuous multi-channel EEG were recorded within the first 24h. Neurological assessment was carried out at 24 months. A control population with NRBC counts in the first 24h was recruited. RESULTS: 44 infants with HIE and 43 control infants were recruited. Of the HIE population 39 completed a 2 year follow-up. The median NRBC count differed significantly between the controls and those with HIE (3\\/100 WBC [range of 0-11] vs 12.3\\/100 WBC [0-240]) (p<0.001). Within the HIE population the median NRBC count was significantly greater in infants with moderate\\/severe HIE than mild (16\\/100 WBC [range of 0-240] vs 8\\/100 WBC [1-23]) (p=0.016), and among infants with abnormal outcome compared to normal (21.3\\/100 WBC [1-239.8] vs 8.3\\/100 WBC [0-50])(p=0.03). The predictive ability of EEG changed with time post-delivery, therefore results are given at both 12 and 24h of age. At both time points the combined marker had a stronger correlation than EEG alone; with HIE severity (12h: r=0.661 vs r=0.622), (24h: r=0.645 vs r=0.598), and with outcome at 2 years (12h: r=0.756 vs r=0.652), (24h: r=0.802 vs r=0.746). CONCLUSION: Combining early EEG and NRBC count to predict HIE severity and neurological outcome, improved the predictive ability of either in isolation.

  18. Diffusion-weighted MRI characteristics of the cerebral metastasis to brain boundary predicts patient outcomes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zakaria, Rasheed; Das, Kumar; Radon, Mark; Bhojak, Maneesh; Rudland, Philip R; Sluming, Vanessa; Jenkinson, Michael D

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) has been used in neurosurgical practice mainly to distinguish cerebral metastases from abscess and glioma. There is evidence from other solid organ cancers and metastases that DWI may be used as a biomarker of prognosis and treatment response. We therefore investigated DWI characteristics of cerebral metastases and their peritumoral region recorded pre-operatively and related these to patient outcomes. Retrospective analysis of 76 cases operated upon at a single institution with DWI performed pre-operatively at 1.5T. Maps of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) were generated using standard protocols. Readings were taken from the tumor, peritumoral region and across the brain-tumor interface. Patient outcomes were overall survival and time to local recurrence. A minimum ADC greater than 919.4 × 10 -6 mm 2 /s within a metastasis predicted longer overall survival regardless of adjuvant therapies. This was not simply due to differences between the types of primary cancer because the effect was observed even in a subgroup of 36 patients with the same primary, non-small cell lung cancer. The change in diffusion across the tumor border and into peritumoral brain was measured by the “ADC transition coefficient” or ATC and this was more strongly predictive than ADC readings alone. Metastases with a sharp change in diffusion across their border (ATC >0.279) showed shorter overall survival compared to those with a more diffuse edge. The ATC was the only imaging measurement which independently predicted overall survival in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.3 – 0.97, p = 0.04). DWI demonstrates changes in the tumor, across the tumor edge and in the peritumoral region which may not be visible on conventional MRI and this may be useful in predicting patient outcomes for operated cerebral metastases

  19. Prediction of insemination outcomes in Holstein dairy cattle using alternative machine learning algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahinfar, Saleh; Page, David; Guenther, Jerry; Cabrera, Victor; Fricke, Paul; Weigel, Kent

    2014-02-01

    When making the decision about whether or not to breed a given cow, knowledge about the expected outcome would have an economic impact on profitability of the breeding program and net income of the farm. The outcome of each breeding can be affected by many management and physiological features that vary between farms and interact with each other. Hence, the ability of machine learning algorithms to accommodate complex relationships in the data and missing values for explanatory variables makes these algorithms well suited for investigation of reproduction performance in dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to develop a user-friendly and intuitive on-farm tool to help farmers make reproduction management decisions. Several different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the insemination outcomes of individual cows based on phenotypic and genotypic data. Data from 26 dairy farms in the Alta Genetics (Watertown, WI) Advantage Progeny Testing Program were used, representing a 10-yr period from 2000 to 2010. Health, reproduction, and production data were extracted from on-farm dairy management software, and estimated breeding values were downloaded from the US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory (Beltsville, MD) database. The edited data set consisted of 129,245 breeding records from primiparous Holstein cows and 195,128 breeding records from multiparous Holstein cows. Each data point in the final data set included 23 and 25 explanatory variables and 1 binary outcome for of 0.756 ± 0.005 and 0.736 ± 0.005 for primiparous and multiparous cows, respectively. The naïve Bayes algorithm, Bayesian network, and decision tree algorithms showed somewhat poorer classification performance. An information-based variable selection procedure identified herd average conception rate, incidence of ketosis, number of previous (failed) inseminations, days in milk at breeding, and mastitis as the most

  20. Adolescent Eating Disorders Predict Psychiatric, High-Risk Behaviors and Weight Outcomes in Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micali, Nadia; Solmi, Francesca; Horton, Nicholas J; Crosby, Ross D; Eddy, Kamryn T; Calzo, Jerel P; Sonneville, Kendrin R; Swanson, Sonja A; Field, Alison E

    2015-08-01

    To investigate whether anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and other specified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED), including purging disorder (PD), subthreshold BN, and BED at ages 14 and 16 years, are prospectively associated with later depression, anxiety disorders, alcohol and substance use, and self-harm. Eating disorders were ascertained at ages 14 and 16 years in 6,140 youth at age 14 (58% of those eligible) and 5,069 at age 16 (52% of those eligible) as part of the prospective Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Outcomes (depression, anxiety disorders, binge drinking, drug use, deliberate self-harm, weight status) were measured using interviews and questionnaires about 2 years after predictors. Generalized estimating equation models adjusting for gender, socio-demographic variables, and prior outcome were used to examine prospective associations between eating disorders and each outcome. All eating disorders were predictive of later anxiety disorders. AN, BN, BED, PD, and OSFED were prospectively associated with depression (respectively AN: odds ratio [OR] = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.00-1.94; BN: OR = 3.39, 95% CI = 1.25-9.20; BED: OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.06-3.75; and PD: OR = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.38-4.74). All eating disorders but AN predicted drug use and deliberate self-harm (BN: OR = 5.72, 95% CI = 2.22-14.72; PD: OR = 4.88, 95% CI = 2.78-8.57; subthreshold BN: OR = 3.97, 95% CI = 1.44-10.98; and subthreshold BED: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.43-3.75). Although BED and BN predicted obesity (respectively OR = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.06-12.14 and OR = 6.42, 95% CI = 1.69-24.30), AN was prospectively associated with underweight. Adolescent eating disorders, including subthreshold presentations, predict negative outcomes, including mental health disorders, substance use, deliberate self-harm, and weight outcomes. This study highlights the high public health and clinical burden of eating disorders

  1. Adolescent Eating Disorders Predict Psychiatric, High-Risk Behaviors and Weight Outcomes in Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micali, Nadia; Solmi, Francesca; Horton, Nicholas J.; Crosby, Ross D.; Eddy, Kamryn T.; Calzo, Jerel P.; Sonneville, Kendrin R.; Swanson, Sonja A.; Field, Alison E.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and other specified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED), including purging disorder (PD), subthreshold BN, and BED at ages 14 and 16, are prospectively associated with later depression, anxiety disorders, alcohol and substance use, and self-harm. Method Eating disorders were ascertained at 14 and 16 years of age in 6,140 youth at age 14 (58% of those eligible) and 5,069 at age 16 (52% of those eligible) as part of the prospective Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Outcomes (depression, anxiety disorders, binge drinking, drug use, deliberate self-harm, weight status) were measured using interviews and questionnaires about 2 years following predictors. Generalized estimating equation models adjusting for gender, socio-demographic variables, and prior outcome were used to examine prospective associations between eating disorders and each outcome. Results All eating disorders were predictive of later anxiety disorders. AN, BN, BED, PD, and OSFED were prospectively associated with depression (respectively AN: odds ratio [OR]=1.39 [95% CIs: 1.00-1.94]; BN: OR=3.39[1.25-9.20]; BED: OR=2.00 [1.06-3.75]; PD: OR=2.56 [1.38-4.74]). All eating disorders but AN predicted drug use and deliberate self-harm (BN: OR=5.72[2.22-14.72], PD: OR=4.88[2.78-8.57], subthreshold BN: OR=3.97[1.44-10.98], subthreshold BED: OR=2.32[1.43-3.75]). Whilst BED and BN predicted obesity (respectively OR=3.58 [1.06-12.14] and OR=6.42 [1.69-24.30]), AN was prospectively associated with underweight. Conclusions Adolescent eating disorders, including subthreshold presentations, predict negative outcomes, including mental health disorders, substance use, deliberate self-harm, and weight outcomes. This study highlights the high public health and clinical burden of eating disorders among adolescents. PMID:26210334

  2. Can We Predict Functional Outcome in Neonates with Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy by the Combination of Neuroimaging and Electroencephalography?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanavati, Tania; Seemaladinne, Nirupama; Regier, Michael; Yossuck, Panitan; Pergami, Paola

    2015-01-01

    Background Neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) is a major cause of mortality, morbidity, and long-term neurological deficits. Despite the availability of neuroimaging and neurophysiological testing, tools for accurate early diagnosis and prediction of developmental outcome are still lacking. The goal of this study was to determine if combined use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and electroencephalography (EEG) findings could support outcome prediction. Methods We retrospectively reviewed records of 17 HIE neonates, classified brain MRI and EEG findings based on severity, and assessed clinical outcome up to 48 months. We determined the relation between MRI/EEG findings and clinical outcome. Results We demonstrated a significant relationship between MRI findings and clinical outcome (Fisher’s exact test, p = 0.017). EEG provided no additional information about the outcome beyond that contained in the MRI score. The statistical model for outcome prediction based on random forests suggested that EEG readings at 24 hours and 72 hours could be important variables for outcome prediction, but this needs to be investigated further. Conclusion Caution should be used when discussing prognosis for neonates with mild-to-moderate HIE based on early MR imaging and EEG findings. A robust, quantitative marker of HIE severity that allows for accurate prediction of long-term outcome, particularly for mild-to-moderate cases, is still needed. PMID:25862075

  3. Low vascularity predicts favourable outcomes in leiomyoma patients treated with uterine artery embolization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yixin; Chen, Chunlin; Duan, Hui; Ma, Ben; Liu, Ping

    2016-10-01

    To investigate the clinical factors predicting outcomes of leiomyoma treated with uterine artery embolization (UAE). A total of 183 uterine leiomyoma patients undergoing UAE were retrospectively analyzed. Patient age, characteristics of vascular supply in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)/digital subtraction angiography (DSA), number, size and location of leiomyoma were recorded. Leiomyoma regrowth, new leiomyoma appearance and recurrence of any previously reported symptoms were carefully monitored over a mean follow-up of 30 months (median 32 months, range 12-80). Potential recurrence risk factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis. Twenty-three recurrences were recorded. The difference in the vascularity classification systems between MRI and DSA was not statistically significant (P = 0.059). High vascularity in MRI, high vascularity in DSA and multiple leiomyoma showed a significant risk of recurrence using univariate and multivariate analysis (P = 0.004, P leiomyoma recurrence (P > 0.05). Low vascularity and solitary leiomyoma indicated favourable outcomes in patients treated with UAE. • Low vascularity and solitary mass predicted favourable outcomes in UAE-treated patients. • MRI might provide information on vascularity in leiomyoma before UAE. • Variations in vascular supply, age, size, location were not associated with recurrence.

  4. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovesen, C; Christensen, A; Nielsen, J K; Christensen, H

    2013-11-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasminogen activator between 2009 and 2011 were included. Upon admission all patients underwent physical and neurological examination using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale along with non-contrast CT scans and CT angiography. Patients were followed up through the Outpatient Clinic and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96; pDRAGON scale provided good discriminative capability (AUC-ROC: 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.0; p=0.003) for highly unfavourable outcome. We confirmed the validity of the DRAGON scale in predicting outcome after thrombolysis treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turc, Guillaume; Aguettaz, Pierre; Ponchelle-Dequatre, Nelly; Hénon, Hilde; Naggara, Olivier; Leclerc, Xavier; Cordonnier, Charlotte; Leys, Didier; Mas, Jean-Louis; Oppenheim, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT-) DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA). We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013) anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France), where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34%) patients). The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54). The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

  6. External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Turc

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT- DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA.We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013 anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France, where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively.We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34% patients. The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54.The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

  7. Validity of the T-ACE in pregnancy in predicting child outcome and risk drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Delaney-Black, Virginia; Janisse, James; Hannigan, John H

    2010-01-01

    Preventing fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) requires detection of in-pregnancy maternal risk drinking. The widely used T-ACE screen has been applied in various ways, although the impact of those different uses on effectiveness is uncertain. We examined relations among different T-ACE scoring criteria, maternal drinking, and child outcome. Self-reported across-pregnancy maternal drinking was assessed in 75 African-American women. The different T-ACE criteria used varied the level of drinking that defined tolerance (two or three drinks) and the total T-ACE score cut-points (two or three). Receiver operator curves and regression analysis assessed the significance of relations. Increasing the total T-ACE score cut-point to 3 almost doubled specificity in detecting risk drinking whereas maintaining adequate sensitivity, equivalent to that in the original report, and identified substantially more neurobehavioral deficits in children. Redefining tolerance at three drinks did not improve T-ACE effectiveness in predicting outcomes. This study is among the first to show the ability of an in-pregnancy T-ACE assessment to predict child neurodevelopmental outcome. In addition, increasing the total T-ACE score criterion (from 2 to 3) improved identification of non-drinking mothers and unaffected children with little loss in detection of drinkers and affected children. Efficient in-pregnancy screens for risk drinking afford greater opportunities for intervention that could prevent/limit FASDs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Setting the vision: applied patient-reported outcomes and smart, connected digital healthcare systems to improve patient-centered outcomes prediction in critical illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysham, Nicholas G; Abernethy, Amy P; Cox, Christopher E

    2014-10-01

    Prediction models in critical illness are generally limited to short-term mortality and uncommonly include patient-centered outcomes. Current outcome prediction tools are also insensitive to individual context or evolution in healthcare practice, potentially limiting their value over time. Improved prognostication of patient-centered outcomes in critical illness could enhance decision-making quality in the ICU. Patient-reported outcomes have emerged as precise methodological measures of patient-centered variables and have been successfully employed using diverse platforms and technologies, enhancing the value of research in critical illness survivorship and in direct patient care. The learning health system is an emerging ideal characterized by integration of multiple data sources into a smart and interconnected health information technology infrastructure with the goal of rapidly optimizing patient care. We propose a vision of a smart, interconnected learning health system with integrated electronic patient-reported outcomes to optimize patient-centered care, including critical care outcome prediction. A learning health system infrastructure integrating electronic patient-reported outcomes may aid in the management of critical illness-associated conditions and yield tools to improve prognostication of patient-centered outcomes in critical illness.

  9. Screening Characteristics of TIMI Score in Predicting Acute Coronary Syndrome Outcome; a Diagnostic Accuracy Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Alavi-Moghaddam

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In cases with potential diagnosis of ischemic chest pain, screening high risk patients for adverse outcomes would be very helpful. The present study was designed aiming to determine the diagnostic accuracy of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI score in Patients with potential diagnosis of ischemic chest pain.Method: This diagnostic accuracy study was designed to evaluate the screening performance characteristics of TIMI score in predicting 30-day outcomes of mortality, myocardial infarction (MI, and need for revascularization in patients presenting to ED with complaint of typical chest pain and diagnosis of unstable angina or Non-ST elevation MI.Results: 901 patients with the mean age of 58.17 ± 15.00 years (19-90 were studied (52.9% male. Mean TIMI score of the studied patients was 0.97 ± 0.93 (0-5 and the highest frequency of the score belonged to 0 to 2 with 37.2%, 35.3%, and 21.4%, respectively. In total, 170 (18.8% patients experienced the outcomes evaluated in this study. Total sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratio of TIMI score were 20 (95% CI: 17 – 24, 99 (95% CI: 97 – 100, 98 (95% CI: 93 – 100, 42 (95% CI: 39 – 46, 58 (95% CI: 14 – 229, and 1.3 (95% CI: 1.2 – 1.4, respectively. Area under the ROC curve of this system for prediction of 30-day mortality, MI, and need for revascularization were 0.51 (95% CI: 0.47 – 0.55, 0.58 (95% CI: 0.54 – 0.62 and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.52 – 0.60, respectively.Conclusion: Based on the findings of the present study, it seems that TIMI score has a high specificity in predicting 30-day adverse outcomes of mortality, MI, and need for revascularization following acute coronary syndrome. However, since its sensitivity, negative predictive value, and negative likelihood ratio are low, it cannot be used as a proper screening tool for ruling out low risk patients in ED.

  10. Serum YKL-40 independently predicts outcome after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization of hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Bao Zhu

    Full Text Available Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE is the most widely used treatment option for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. Elevated serum YKL-40 level has been shown to predict poor prognosis in HCC patients undergoing resection. This study was designed to validate the prognostic significance of serum YKL-40 in patients with HCC undergoing TACE treatment.Serum YKL-40 level was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall survival (OS was evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariate study with Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate independent prognostic variables of OS.The median pretreatment serum YKL-40 in HCC patients with was significantly higher than that in healthy controls (P<0.001. The YKL-40 could predict survival precisely either in a dichotomized or continuous fashion (P<0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that serum YKL-40 was an independent prognostic factor for OS in HCC patients (P = 0.001. In further stratified analyses, YKL-40 could discriminate the outcomes of patients with low and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP level (P = 0.006 and 0.016, respectively. Furthermore, the combination of serum YKL-40 and AFP had more capacity to predict patients' outcomes.Serum YKL-40 was demonstrated to be an independent prognostic biomarker in HCC patients treated with TACE. Our results need confirmation in an independent study.

  11. Personality traits predict treatment outcome with an antidepressant in patients with functional gastrointestinal disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanum, L; Malt, U F

    2000-09-01

    We investigated the relationship between personality traits and response to treatment with the tetracyclic antidepressant mianserin or placebo in patients with functional gastrointestinal disorder (FGD) without psychopathology. Forty-eight patients completed the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory, Neuroticism Extroversion Openness -Personality Inventory (NEO-PI), and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), neuroticism + lie subscales, before they were consecutively allocated to a 7-week double-blind treatment study with mianserin or placebo. Treatment response to pain and target symptoms were recorded daily with the Visual Analogue Scale and Clinical Global Improvement Scale at every visit. A low level of neuroticism and little concealed aggressiveness predicted treatment outcome with the antidepressant drug mianserin in non-psychiatric patients with FGD. Inversely, moderate to high neuroticism and marked concealed aggressiveness predicted poor response to treatment. These findings were most prominent in women. Personality traits were better predictors of treatment outcome than serotonergic sensitivity assessed with the fenfluramine test. Assessment of the personality traits negativism, irritability, aggression, and neuroticism may predict response to drug treatment of FGD even when serotonergic sensitivity is controlled for. If confirmed in future studies, the findings point towards a more differential psychopharmacologic treatment of FGD.

  12. Discrimination measures for survival outcomes: connection between the AUC and the predictiveness curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viallon, Vivian; Latouche, Aurélien

    2011-03-01

    Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Leukoaraiosis predicts poor 90-day outcome after acute large cerebral artery occlusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henninger, Nils; Lin, Eugene; Baker, Stephen P; Wakhloo, Ajay K; Takhtani, Deepak; Moonis, Majaz

    2012-01-01

    To date limited information regarding outcome-modifying factors in patients with acute intracranial large artery occlusion (ILAO) in the anterior circulation is available. Leukoaraiosis (LA) is a common finding among patients with ischemic stroke and has been associated with poor post-stroke outcomes but its association with ILAO remains poorly characterized. This study sought to clarify the contribution of baseline LA and other common risk factors to 90-day outcome (modified Rankin Scale, mRS) after stroke due to acute anterior circulation ILAO. We retrospectively analyzed 1,153 consecutive patients with imaging-confirmed ischemic stroke during a 4-year period (2007-2010) at a single academic institution. The final study cohort included 87 patients with acute ILAO subjected to multimodal CT imaging within 24 h of symptom onset. LA severity was assessed using the van Swieten scale on non-contrast CT. Leptomeningeal collaterals were graded using CT angiogram source images. Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) was determined on follow-up CT. Multivariate logistic regression controlling for HT, treatment modality, demographic, as well as baseline clinical and imaging characteristics was used to identify independent predictors of a poor outcome (90-day mRS >2). The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at baseline was 15 (interquartile range 9-21). Twenty-four percent of the studied patients had severe LA. They were more likely to have hypertension (p = 0.028), coronary artery disease (p = 0.015), poor collaterals (p Coexisting LA may predict poor functional outcome in patients with acute anterior circulation ILAO independent of other known important outcome predictors such as comorbid state, admission functional deficit, collateral status, hemorrhagic conversion, and treatment modality. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  14. Prediction of 90Y Radioembolization Outcome from Pretherapeutic Factors with Random Survival Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrisch, Michael; Schöppe, Franziska; Paprottka, Karolin; Fabritius, Matthias; Strobl, Frederik F; De Toni, Enrico N; Ilhan, Harun; Todica, Andrei; Michl, Marlies; Paprottka, Philipp Marius

    2018-05-01

    Our objective was to predict the outcome of 90 Y radioembolization in patients with intrahepatic tumors from pretherapeutic baseline parameters and to identify predictive variables using a machine-learning approach based on random survival forests. Methods: In this retrospective study, 366 patients with primary ( n = 92) or secondary ( n = 274) liver tumors who had received 90 Y radioembolization were analyzed. A random survival forest was trained to predict individual risk from baseline values of cholinesterase, bilirubin, type of primary tumor, age at radioembolization, hepatic tumor burden, presence of extrahepatic disease, and sex. The predictive importance of each baseline parameter was determined using the minimal-depth concept, and the partial dependency of predicted risk on the continuous variables bilirubin level and cholinesterase level was determined. Results: Median overall survival was 11.4 mo (95% confidence interval, 9.7-14.2 mo), with 228 deaths occurring during the observation period. The random-survival-forest analysis identified baseline cholinesterase and bilirubin as the most important variables (forest-averaged lowest minimal depth, 1.2 and 1.5, respectively), followed by the type of primary tumor (1.7), age (2.4), tumor burden (2.8), and presence of extrahepatic disease (3.5). Sex had the highest forest-averaged minimal depth (5.5), indicating little predictive value. Baseline bilirubin levels above 1.5 mg/dL were associated with a steep increase in predicted mortality. Similarly, cholinesterase levels below 7.5 U predicted a strong increase in mortality. The trained random survival forest achieved a concordance index of 0.657, with an SE of 0.02, comparable to the concordance index of 0.652 and SE of 0.02 for a previously published Cox proportional hazards model. Conclusion: Random survival forests are a simple and straightforward machine-learning approach for prediction of overall survival. The predictive performance of the trained model

  15. Outcome after surgical treatment for lumbar spinal stenosis: the lumbar extension test is not a predictive factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westergaard, Lars; Hauerberg, John; Springborg, Jacob B

    2009-01-01

    STUDY DESIGN: A prospective clinical study. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the predictive value of the lumbar extension test for outcome after surgical treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Studies have indicated that aggravation of the symptoms from LSS by extension...... of the lumbar spine has predictive value for the outcome after decompression. The aim of this study was to investigate this theory in a larger group of patients. METHODS: One hundred forty-six consecutive patients surgically treated for LSS were included in the study. The clinical condition was recorded before...... has no predictive value for the outcome after surgical treatment of LSS....

  16. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  17. Thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT can predict clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Mina; Kim, Kyung-eun; Lee, Seung-Koo; Shin, Na-Young; Lim, Soo Mee; Song, Dongbeom; Heo, Ji Hoe; Kim, Jin Woo; Oh, Se Won

    2016-01-01

    The thrombus length may be overestimated on early arterial computed tomography angiography (CTA) depending on the collateral status. We evaluated the value of a grading system based on the thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT in outcome prediction. Forty-eight acute ischemic stroke patients with M1 occlusion were included. Dual-phase CT protocol encompassed non-contrast enhanced CT, CTA with a bolus tracking technique, and delayed contrast enhanced CT (CECT) performed 40s after contrast injection. The thrombus length discrepancy between CTA and CECT was graded by using a three-point scale: G0 = no difference; G1 = no difference in thrombus length, but in attenuation distal to thrombus; G2 = difference in thrombus length. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to define independent predictors of poor clinical outcome at 3 months. The thrombus discrepancy grade showed significant linear relationships with both the collateral status (P = 0.008) and the presence of antegrade flow on DSA (P = 0.010) with good interobserver agreement (κ = 0.868). In a multivariate model, the presence of thrombus length discrepancy (G2) was an independent predictor of poor clinical outcome [odds ratio = 11.474 (1.350-97.547); P =0.025]. The presence of thrombus length discrepancy on dual-phase CT may be a useful predictor of unfavourable clinical outcome in acute M1 occlusion patients. (orig.)

  18. Stimulation site within the MRI-defined STN predicts postoperative motor outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodarg, Fritz; Herzog, Jan; Reese, René; Falk, Daniela; Pinsker, Markus O; Steigerwald, Frank; Jansen, Olav; Deuschl, Günther; Mehdorn, H Maximillian; Volkmann, Jens

    2012-06-01

    High-frequency stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN-HFS) is highly effective in treating motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) and medication side effects as well as in improving quality of life. Despite preoperative screening for patients as eligible candidates for this treatment, electrode position may furthermore influence treatment quality. Here, we investigated the relationship between the anatomical site of stimulation within the MRI-defined STN and the outcome of PD patients after STN-HFS. In 30 PD patients with bilateral STN stimulation, we retrospectively defined the boundaries of the STN within the axial target plane of the stereotactic T2-weighted MRI and determined the position of the active electrode contact in relation to the border of the STN. The position of the active contact within the STN was the only variable to predict the outcome of STN stimulation. In contrast, covariates such as age, disease duration, symptom severity, and response to levodopa had no effect. The lateral position of the stimulation contact within the STN led to significantly better clinical improvement, lower stimulation parameters, and less need for postoperative dopaminergic medication. The outcome of patients with stimulation contacts within the medial region of the STN was significantly worse. Precise targeting of the lateral region of the STN is essential for achieving sufficient stimulation efficacy. Preoperative T2-weighted MRI might be a useful component of the targeting procedure to improve the outcome of PD patients. Copyright © 2012 Movement Disorder Society.

  19. Do ictal EEG characteristics predict treatment outcomes in schizophrenic patients undergoing electroconvulsive therapy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Gulnihal Gokce; Zincir, Selma; Gulec, Huseyin; Eksioglu, Sevgin; Semiz, Umit Basar; Kurtulmus, Yasemin Sipka

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between features of electroencephalography (EEG), including seizure time, energy threshold level and post-ictal suppression time, and clinical variables, including treatment outcomes and side-effects, among schizophrenia inpatients undergoing electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). This is a naturalistic follow-up study on schizophrenia patients, diagnosed using DSM-IV-TR criteria, treated by a psychosis inpatient service. All participants completed the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale, the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) and a Data Collection Form. Assessments were made before treatment, during ECT and after treatment. Statistically significant improvements in both clinical and cognitive outcome were noted after ECT in all patients. Predictors of improvement were sought by evaluating electrophysiological variables measured at three time points (after the third, fifth and seventh ECT sessions). Logistic regression analysis showed that clinical outcome/improvement did not differ by seizure duration, threshold energy level or post-ictal suppression time. We found that ictal EEG parameters measured at several ECT sessions did not predict clinical recovery/outcomes. This may be because our centre defensively engages in "very specific patient selection" when ECT is contemplated. ECT does not cause short-term cognitive functional impairment and indeed improves cognition, because symptoms of the schizophrenic episode are alleviated.

  20. Predicting IVF Outcome: A Proposed Web-based System Using Artificial Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siristatidis, Charalampos; Vogiatzi, Paraskevi; Pouliakis, Abraham; Trivella, Marialenna; Papantoniou, Nikolaos; Bettocchi, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    To propose a functional in vitro fertilization (IVF) prediction model to assist clinicians in tailoring personalized treatment of subfertile couples and improve assisted reproduction outcome. Construction and evaluation of an enhanced web-based system with a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture and conformed input and output parameters according to the clinical and bibliographical standards, driven by a complete data set and "trained" by a network expert in an IVF setting. The system is capable to act as a routine information technology platform for the IVF unit and is capable of recalling and evaluating a vast amount of information in a rapid and automated manner to provide an objective indication on the outcome of an artificial reproductive cycle. ANNs are an exceptional candidate in providing the fertility specialist with numerical estimates to promote personalization of healthcare and adaptation of the course of treatment according to the indications. Copyright © 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  1. The orbitofrontal oracle: cortical mechanisms for the prediction and evaluation of specific behavioral outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudebeck, Peter H.; Murray, Elisabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has long been associated with the flexible control of behavior and concepts such as behavioral inhibition, self-control and emotional regulation. These ideas emphasize the suppression of behaviors and emotions, but OFC’s affirmative functions have remained enigmatic. Here we review recent work that has advanced our understanding of this prefrontal area and how its functions are shaped through interaction with subcortical structures such as the amygdala. Recent findings have overturned theories emphasizing behavioral inhibition as OFC’s fundamental function. Instead, new findings indicate that OFC provides predictions about specific outcomes associated with stimuli, choices and actions, especially their moment-to-moment value based on current internal states. OFC function thereby encompasses a broad representation or model of an individual’s sensory milieu and potential actions, along with their relationship to likely behavioral outcomes. PMID:25521376

  2. Velocity ratio predicts outcomes in patients with low gradient severe aortic stenosis and preserved EF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jander, Nikolaus; Hochholzer, Willibald; Kaufmann, Beat A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of velocity ratio (VR) in patients with low gradient severe aortic stenosis (LGSAS) and preserved EF. BACKGROUND: LGSAS despite preserved EF represents a clinically challenging entity. Reliance on mean pressure gradient (MPG) may underestimate stenosis severity...... for severe stenosis. We hypothesised that VR may have conceptual advantages over MPG and AVA, predict clinical outcomes and thereby be useful in the management of patients with LGSAS. METHODS: Patients from the prospective Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study with an AVA...≤40 mm Hg and EF≥55% and asymptomatic at baseline were stratified according to VR with a cut-off value of 0.25. Outcomes were evaluated according to aortic valve-related events and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of 435 patients with LGSAS, 197 (45%) had VRVR≥0...

  3. The orbitofrontal oracle: cortical mechanisms for the prediction and evaluation of specific behavioral outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudebeck, Peter H; Murray, Elisabeth A

    2014-12-17

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has long been associated with the flexible control of behavior and concepts such as behavioral inhibition, self-control, and emotional regulation. These ideas emphasize the suppression of behaviors and emotions, but OFC's affirmative functions have remained enigmatic. Here we review recent work that has advanced our understanding of this prefrontal area and how its functions are shaped through interaction with subcortical structures such as the amygdala. Recent findings have overturned theories emphasizing behavioral inhibition as OFC's fundamental function. Instead, new findings indicate that OFC provides predictions about specific outcomes associated with stimuli, choices, and actions, especially their moment-to-moment value based on current internal states. OFC function thereby encompasses a broad representation or model of an individual's sensory milieu and potential actions, along with their relationship to likely behavioral outcomes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  5. Unilateral hip osteoarthritis: can we predict the outcome of the other hip?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossinakis, I.C.; Georgiades, G.; Hartofilakidis, G.; Kafidas, D.

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this study was to define, in unilateral hip osteoarthritis (OA), factors predicting the outcome of the other hip. We examined the anteroposterior radiographs of the pelvis of 95 white patients with unilateral idiopathic (56 patients) or secondary to congenital hip diseases (39 patients) OA. The other hip was free from symptoms (pain or limping) at the initial examination and without radiographic evidence of OA; it was what we call a ''normal'' hip. Two parameters were evaluated: (1) the type of osteoarthritis of the involved hip and (2) the range of four radiographic indices of the contralateral hip: the sourcil inclination (weight-bearing surface), the acetabular angle, the Wiberg's center-edge angle, and the neck-shaft angle. Follow-up radiographs for the hips that remained OA-free were available for 10 to 35 years and for those that developed OA, at the time of initial symptoms, range 2 to 31 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that the presence of idiopathic OA in one hip had a statistically significant effect on the development of OA on the other hip (p<0.001). Minor deviations of radiographic indices of the contralateral hip is not a predictive factor for its outcome. When the radiographic indices are examined together with the pathology of the involved hip, only WBS was shown to have a significant effect to the development of OA and its type (p < 0.001). The following conclusions can be drawn from this study: 1. Patient with idiopathic OA of one hip is at increased risk of developing OA in the other hip. 2. The outcome of the other hip cannot be predicted only on the basis of the evaluation of its radiographic indices. 3. Among the different indices, WBS seems to have a strong influence toward the development of OA. (orig.)

  6. Do infant vocabulary skills predict school-age language and literacy outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Fiona J; Reen, Gurpreet; Plunkett, Kim; Nation, Kate

    2015-08-01

    Strong associations between infant vocabulary and school-age language and literacy skills would have important practical and theoretical implications: Preschool assessment of vocabulary skills could be used to identify children at risk of reading and language difficulties, and vocabulary could be viewed as a cognitive foundation for reading. However, evidence to date suggests predictive ability from infant vocabulary to later language and literacy is low. This study provides an investigation into, and interpretation of, the magnitude of such infant to school-age relationships. Three hundred British infants whose vocabularies were assessed by parent report in the 2nd year of life (between 16 and 24 months) were followed up on average 5 years later (ages ranged from 4 to 9 years), when their vocabulary, phonological and reading skills were measured. Structural equation modelling of age-regressed scores was used to assess the strength of longitudinal relationships. Infant vocabulary (a latent factor of receptive and expressive vocabulary) was a statistically significant predictor of later vocabulary, phonological awareness, reading accuracy and reading comprehension (accounting for between 4% and 18% of variance). Family risk for language or literacy difficulties explained additional variance in reading (approximately 10%) but not language outcomes. Significant longitudinal relationships between preliteracy vocabulary knowledge and subsequent reading support the theory that vocabulary is a cognitive foundation of both reading accuracy and reading comprehension. Importantly however, the stability of vocabulary skills from infancy to later childhood is too low to be sufficiently predictive of language outcomes at an individual level - a finding that fits well with the observation that the majority of 'late talkers' resolve their early language difficulties. For reading outcomes, prediction of future difficulties is likely to be improved when considering family

  7. Do infant vocabulary skills predict school-age language and literacy outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Fiona J; Reen, Gurpreet; Plunkett, Kim; Nation, Kate

    2015-01-01

    Background Strong associations between infant vocabulary and school-age language and literacy skills would have important practical and theoretical implications: Preschool assessment of vocabulary skills could be used to identify children at risk of reading and language difficulties, and vocabulary could be viewed as a cognitive foundation for reading. However, evidence to date suggests predictive ability from infant vocabulary to later language and literacy is low. This study provides an investigation into, and interpretation of, the magnitude of such infant to school-age relationships. Methods Three hundred British infants whose vocabularies were assessed by parent report in the 2nd year of life (between 16 and 24 months) were followed up on average 5 years later (ages ranged from 4 to 9 years), when their vocabulary, phonological and reading skills were measured. Results Structural equation modelling of age-regressed scores was used to assess the strength of longitudinal relationships. Infant vocabulary (a latent factor of receptive and expressive vocabulary) was a statistically significant predictor of later vocabulary, phonological awareness, reading accuracy and reading comprehension (accounting for between 4% and 18% of variance). Family risk for language or literacy difficulties explained additional variance in reading (approximately 10%) but not language outcomes. Conclusions Significant longitudinal relationships between preliteracy vocabulary knowledge and subsequent reading support the theory that vocabulary is a cognitive foundation of both reading accuracy and reading comprehension. Importantly however, the stability of vocabulary skills from infancy to later childhood is too low to be sufficiently predictive of language outcomes at an individual level – a finding that fits well with the observation that the majority of ‘late talkers’ resolve their early language difficulties. For reading outcomes, prediction of future difficulties is likely to

  8. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Botticelli

    Full Text Available 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC. Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD on survival.Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome.133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts; normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts; ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts. PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029. A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019. No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed.5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes.

  9. Factors Predicting a Good Symptomatic Outcome After Prostate Artery Embolisation (PAE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maclean, D; Harris, M; Drake, T; Maher, B; Modi, S; Dyer, J; Somani, B; Hacking, N; Bryant, T

    2018-02-26

    As prostate artery embolisation (PAE) becomes an established treatment for benign prostatic obstruction, factors predicting good symptomatic outcome remain unclear. Pre-embolisation prostate size as a predictor is controversial with a handful of papers coming to conflicting conclusions. We aimed to investigate if an association existed in our patient cohort between prostate size and clinical benefit, in addition to evaluating percentage volume reduction as a predictor of symptomatic outcome following PAE. Prospective follow-up of 86 PAE patients at a single institution between June 2012 and January 2016 was conducted (mean age 64.9 years, range 54-80 years). Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to assess strength of association between clinical improvement (change in IPSS) and other variables, of any statistical correlation, through Pearson's bivariate analysis. No major procedural complications were identified and clinical success was achieved in 72.1% (n = 62) at 12 months. Initial prostate size and percentage reduction were found to have a significant association with clinical improvement. Multiple linear regression analysis (r 2  = 0.48) demonstrated that percentage volume reduction at 3 months (r = 0.68, p < 0.001) had the strongest correlation with good symptomatic improvement at 12 months after adjusting for confounding factors. Both the initial prostate size and percentage volume reduction at 3 months predict good symptomatic outcome at 12 months. These findings therefore aid patient selection and counselling to achieve optimal outcomes for men undergoing prostate artery embolisation.

  10. Predictive Factors and Treatment Outcomes of Tuberculous Pleural Effusion in Patients With Cancer and Pleural Effusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jaehee; Lee, Yong Dae; Lim, Jae Kwang; Lee, Deok Heon; Yoo, Seung Soo; Lee, Shin Yup; Cha, Seung Ick; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Chang Ho

    2017-08-01

    Patients with cancer are at an increased risk of tuberculosis. As pleural effusion has great clinical significance in patients with cancer, the differential diagnosis between tuberculous pleural effusion (TPE) and malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is important. However, the predictive factors and treatment outcomes of TPE in patients with cancer have rarely been studied. Confirmed TPE cases identified at cancer diagnosis and during anticancer management from 2008-2015 were retrospectively investigated. Patients in the study included coexisting TPE and cancer (n = 20), MPE (n = 40) and TPE without cancer (n = 40). Control groups were patients with MPE, and patients with TPE without cancer. Clinical, laboratory and pleural fluid characteristics were compared among groups. Treatment outcomes were compared between patients with TPE with and without cancer. In the final analysis, serum C-reactive protein (S-CRP) ≥3.0mg/dL and pleural fluid adenosine deaminase (ADA) ≥40U/L were independent predictors for identifying TPE in patients with cancer having pleural effusion. The combination of S-CRP with pleural fluid ADA using an "or" rule achieved a sensitivity of 100%, whereas both parameters combined in an "and" rule had a specificity of 98%. Treatment outcomes were not different between the TPE groups with and without cancer. S-CRP and pleural fluid ADA levels may be helpful for predicting TPE in patients with cancer with pleural effusion. The combination of these biomarkers provides better information for distinguishing between TPE and MPE in these patients. Treatment outcomes of TPE in patients with cancer are comparable to those in patients without cancer. Copyright © 2017 Southern Society for Clinical Investigation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu Annie TW

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Results - Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 ± 9.2 years from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%, recovery (0% and 4.3%, delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9% and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%. Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant

  12. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Samuel M Y; Ho, Judy W C; Bonanno, George A; Chu, Annie T W; Chan, Emily M S

    2010-06-11

    Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline) and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 +/- 9.2 years) from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%), recovery (0% and 4.3%), delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9%) and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%). Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression) were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant predictor of a resilience outcome trajectory for depression

  13. Prediction of extubation outcome in preterm infants by composite extubation indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitriou, Gabriel; Fouzas, Sotirios; Vervenioti, Aggeliki; Tzifas, Sotirios; Mantagos, Stefanos

    2011-11-01

    To determine whether composite extubation indices can predict extubation outcome in preterm infants. Prospective observational study. Level III neonatal intensive care unit. Fifty-six preterm infants cared for in the neonatal intensive care unit of a tertiary teaching hospital during 2007 and 2008. None. The study consisted of two parts. In the first part, different extubation indices were evaluated in a group of 28 neonates (derivation group). These indices included the diaphragmatic pressure-time index, the respiratory muscle pressure-time index, the maximal transdiaphragmatic pressure, the maximal inspiratory pressure, the airway pressure generated 100 milliseconds after an occlusion/maximal transdiaphragmatic pressure ratio, the airway pressure generated 100 milliseconds after an occlusion/maximal inspiratory pressure ratio, the tidal volume, and the respiratory rate to tidal volume ratio. After exploratory analysis, the best performing indices and the optimal threshold values to predict extubation outcome were selected. In the second part of the study, these indices were validated at the predetermined threshold values in an additional group of 28 preterm neonates (validation group). Four infants (14.3%) in the derivation group and four in the validation group (14.3%) failed extubation. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis revealed that a diaphragmatic pressure-time index of ≤0.12, a respiratory muscle pressure-time index ≤0.10, a airway pressure generated 100 milliseconds after an occlusion/maximal transdiaphragmatic pressure of ≤0.14, and a airway pressure generated 100 milliseconds after an occlusion/maximal inspiratory pressure of ≤0.09 were the most accurate predictors of extubation outcome in the derivation group. In the validation group, a diaphragmatic pressure-time index of ≤0.12 and a respiratory muscle pressure-time index of ≤0.10 both had zero false-positive results, predicting with accuracy successful extubation. Composite

  14. Hamsi scoring in the prediction of unfavorable outcomes from tuberculous meningitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, Hakan; Ozturk-Engin, Derya; Tireli, Hulya

    2015-01-01

    , hydrocephalus, vasculitis, immunosuppression, diabetes mellitus and neurological deficit remained in the final model. Scores 1-3 were assigned to the variables in the severity scale, which included scores of 1-6. The distribution of mortality for the scores 1-6 was 3.4, 8.2, 20.6, 31, 30 and 40.1%, respectively....... Altered consciousness, diabetes mellitus, immunosuppression, neurological deficits, hydrocephalus, and vasculitis predicted the unfavorable outcome in the scoring and the cumulative score provided a linear estimation of prognosis....

  15. A histopathological score on baseline biopsies from elderly donors predicts outcome 1 year after renal transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Birgitte G; Federspiel, Birgitte H; Sørensen, Søren S

    2012-01-01

    wall thickness of arteries and/or arterioles. Nineteen renal baseline biopsies from 15 donors (age: 64 ± 10 years) were included and following consensus the histopathological score was 4.3 ± 2.1 (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.81; confidence interval: 0.66-0.92). The donor organs were used......Kidneys from elderly deceased patients and otherwise marginal donors may be considered for transplantation and a pretransplantation histopathological score for prediction of postoperative outcome is warranted. In a retrospective design, 29 baseline renal needle biopsies from elderly deceased donors...... Danish donors a histopathological score on baseline renal needle biopsies, with at least ten glomeruli and one artery present, predicts graft function 1 year after transplantation....

  16. Low free triiodothyronine predicts poor functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suda, Satoshi; Muraga, Kanako; Kanamaru, Takuya; Okubo, Seiji; Abe, Arata; Aoki, Junya; Suzuki, Kentaro; Sakamoto, Yuki; Shimoyama, Takashi; Nito, Chikako; Kimura, Kazumi

    2016-09-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate the association of admission serum thyroid hormone concentration with clinical characteristics and functional outcomes in patients after acute ischemic stroke. We retrospectively enrolled 398 consecutive patients admitted to our stroke center between July 2010 and April 2012. Serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine (FT3), and free thyroxine (FT4) were evaluated upon admission. Neurological severity was evaluated using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) upon admission and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) upon discharge. Poor outcome was defined as a mRS score of 3-5 or death (mRS score 6). Separate analyses were conducted according to outcome and quartile serum FT3 concentration. In total, 164 patients (41.2%) demonstrated a poor outcome. Age, male gender, blood glucose level, arterial fibrillation, dyslipidemia, smoking, NIHSS score, cardioembolic stroke type, and periventricular hyperintensities, but not FT4 or TSH, were significantly associated with poor functional outcome. Furthermore, poor functional outcome was independently associated with low FT3 (<2.29pg/mL). In comparisons between FT3 quartiles (Q1 [≤2.11pg/mL], Q2 [2.12-2.45pg/mL], Q3 [2.46-2.77pg/mL], Q4 [≥2.78pg/mL]), patients with poor outcomes were more frequent in Q1 than in Q4 after multivariate adjustment. Death was more frequent in Q1 than in Q4 after adjustment for risk factors and comorbidities, but this difference was non-significant after additional adjustment for age and NIHSS score. Our data suggest that a lower FT3 value upon admission may predict a poor functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Further large-scale prospective studies are required to clarify the role of thyroid hormone in the acute phase of ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Patient-reported allergies predict postoperative outcomes and psychosomatic markers following spine surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, David D; Ye, Wenda; Xiao, Roy; Miller, Jacob A; Mroz, Thomas E; Steinmetz, Michael P; Nagel, Sean J; Machado, Andre G

    2018-05-22

    Prior studies have shown that patient-reported allergies can be prognostic of poorer postoperative outcomes. To investigate the correlation between self-reported allergies and outcomes after cervical or lumbar spine surgery. Retrospective cohort study at a single tertiary-care institution. All patients undergoing cervical or lumbar spine surgery from 2009-2014. The primary outcome measure was change in the EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) following surgery. Secondary outcomes included change in the Pain Disability Questionnaire (PDQ) and Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), achieving the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in these measures, as well as cost of admission. Prior to and following surgery, EQ-5D, PDQ, and PHQ-9 were recorded for patients with available data. Paired student's t-tests were used to compare change in these measures following surgery. Multivariable linear and logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between the log transformation of the total number of allergies and outcomes. 592 cervical patients and 4,465 lumbar patients were included. The median number of reported allergies was two. The EQ-5D index increased from 0.539 to 0.703 for cervical patients and from 0.530 to 0.676 for lumbar patients (pallergies predicted significantly higher odds of achieving the PDQ MCID (OR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.05-4.15, p=0.02 for cervical patients; OR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.68, p=0.03 for lumbar patients). However, this relationship was not durable for patients with follow-up exceeding 1 year. The log transformation of number of allergies for lumbar patients predicted significantly increased cost of admission (β=$3,597, pallergies correlate with subjective improvement in pain and disability following spine surgery and may serve as a marker of postoperative outcomes. The relationship between allergies and PDQ improvement may be secondary to the short-term expectation-actuality discrepancy, as this relationship was not durable beyond 1

  18. Predicting Outcome in Patients with Rhabdomyosarcoma: Role of [18F]Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casey, Dana L.; Wexler, Leonard H.; Fox, Josef J.; Dharmarajan, Kavita V.; Schoder, Heiko; Price, Alison N.; Wolden, Suzanne L.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) response of the primary tumor after induction chemotherapy predicts outcomes in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). Methods and Materials: After excluding those with initial tumor resection, 107 patients who underwent FDG-PET after induction chemotherapy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center from 2002 to 2013 were reviewed. Local control (LC), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated according to FDG-PET response and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) at baseline (PET1/SUV1), after induction chemotherapy (PET2/SUV2), and after local therapy (PET3/SUV3). Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal cutoff for dichotomization of SUV1 and SUV2 values. Results: The SUV1 (<9.5 vs ≥9.5) was predictive of PFS (P=.02) and OS (P=.02), but not LC. After 12 weeks (median) of induction chemotherapy, 45 patients had negative PET2 scans and 62 had positive scans: 3-year PFS was 72% versus 44%, respectively (P=.01). The SUV2 (<1.5 vs ≥1.5) was similarly predictive of PFS (P=.005) and was associated with LC (P=.02) and OS (P=.03). A positive PET3 scan was predictive of worse PFS (P=.0009), LC (P=.05), and OS (P=.03). Conclusions: [ 18 F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography is an early indicator of outcomes in patients with RMS. Future prospective trials may incorporate FDG-PET response data for risk-adapted therapy and early assessment of new treatment regimens

  19. Comparison of classification methods for voxel-based prediction of acute ischemic stroke outcome following intra-arterial intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winder, Anthony J.; Siemonsen, Susanne; Flottmann, Fabian; Fiehler, Jens; Forkert, Nils D.

    2017-03-01

    Voxel-based tissue outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients is highly relevant for both clinical routine and research. Previous research has shown that features extracted from baseline multi-parametric MRI datasets have a high predictive value and can be used for the training of classifiers, which can generate tissue outcome predictions for both intravenous and conservative treatments. However, with the recent advent and popularization of intra-arterial thrombectomy treatment, novel research specifically addressing the utility of predictive classi- fiers for thrombectomy intervention is necessary for a holistic understanding of current stroke treatment options. The aim of this work was to develop three clinically viable tissue outcome prediction models using approximate nearest-neighbor, generalized linear model, and random decision forest approaches and to evaluate the accuracy of predicting tissue outcome after intra-arterial treatment. Therefore, the three machine learning models were trained, evaluated, and compared using datasets of 42 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intra-arterial thrombectomy. Classifier training utilized eight voxel-based features extracted from baseline MRI datasets and five global features. Evaluation of classifier-based predictions was performed via comparison to the known tissue outcome, which was determined in follow-up imaging, using the Dice coefficient and leave-on-patient-out cross validation. The random decision forest prediction model led to the best tissue outcome predictions with a mean Dice coefficient of 0.37. The approximate nearest-neighbor and generalized linear model performed equally suboptimally with average Dice coefficients of 0.28 and 0.27 respectively, suggesting that both non-linearity and machine learning are desirable properties of a classifier well-suited to the intra-arterial tissue outcome prediction problem.

  20. Prediction of hearing outcomes by multiple regression analysis in patients with idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Predictive value of sperm morphology and progressively motile sperm count for pregnancy outcomes in intrauterine insemination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Louise; Kos, Snjezana; Beijer, Cornelis; Brinkman, Jacoline W; van der Horst, Frans A L; van den Hoven, Leonie; Kieslinger, Dorit C; van Trooyen-van Vrouwerff, Netty J; Wolthuis, Albert; Hendriks, Jan C M; Wetzels, Alex M M

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the value of sperm parameters to predict an ongoing pregnancy outcome in couples treated with intrauterine insemination (IUI), during a methodologically stable period of time. Retrospective, observational study with logistic regression analyses. University hospital. A total of 1,166 couples visiting the fertility laboratory for their first IUI episode, including 4,251 IUI cycles. None. Sperm morphology, total progressively motile sperm count (TPMSC), and number of inseminated progressively motile spermatozoa (NIPMS); odds ratios (ORs) of the sperm parameters after the first IUI cycle and the first finished IUI episode; discriminatory accuracy of the multivariable model. None of the sperm parameters was of predictive value for pregnancy after the first IUI cycle. In the first finished IUI episode, a positive relationship was found for ≤4% of morphologically normal spermatozoa (OR 1.39) and a moderate NIPMS (5-10 million; OR 1.73). Low NIPMS showed a negative relation (≤1 million; OR 0.42). The TPMSC had no predictive value. The multivariable model (i.e., sperm morphology, NIPMS, female age, male age, and the number of cycles in the episode) had a moderate discriminatory accuracy (area under the curve 0.73). Intrauterine insemination is especially relevant for couples with moderate male factor infertility (sperm morphology ≤4%, NIPMS 5-10 million). In the multivariable model, however, the predictive power of these sperm parameters is rather low. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk adjusted surgical audit in gynaecological oncology: P-POSSUM does not predict outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, N; Talaat, A S; Naik, R; Lopes, A D; Godfrey, K A; Hatem, M H; Edmondson, R J

    2006-12-01

    To assess the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its validity for use in gynaecological oncology surgery. All patients undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery at the Northern Gynaecological Oncology Centre (NGOC) Gateshead, UK over a period of 12months (2002-2003) were assessed prospectively. Mortality and morbidity predictions using the Portsmouth modification of the POSSUM algorithm (P-POSSUM) were compared to the actual outcomes. Performance of the model was also evaluated using the Hosmer and Lemeshow Chi square statistic (testing the goodness of fit). During this period 468 patients were assessed. The P-POSSUM appeared to over predict mortality rates for our patients. It predicted a 7% mortality rate for our patients compared to an observed rate of 2% (35 predicted deaths in comparison to 10 observed deaths), a difference that was statistically significant (H&L chi(2)=542.9, d.f. 8, prisk of mortality for gynaecological oncology patients undergoing surgery. The P-POSSUM algorithm will require further adjustments prior to adoption for gynaecological cancer surgery as a risk adjusted surgical audit tool.

  3. Prediction of medication non-adherence and associated outcomes in pediatric kidney transplant recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connelly, James; Pilch, N; Oliver, M; Jordan, C; Fleming, J; Meadows, H; Baliga, P; Nadig, S; Twombley, K; Shatat, I; Taber, D

    2015-08-01

    Studies have continued to evaluate risk factors associated with post-transplant non-adherence in pediatric patients. However, many of these studies fail to evaluate how risk factors can be utilized to predict MNA. The aims of this study were to (i) determine salient risk factors associated with MNA to develop an adequate predictive risk model and (ii) assess transplant outcomes based on the presence of MNA in a large, diverse cohort of pediatric KTX recipients. One hundred and seventy-five solitary pediatric KTX recipients transplanted from 1999 to 2013 were included. AA, males, older patients, those who lived in urban environments, had legal issues, and lived shorter distances from the transplant center were more likely to have MNA. Using logistic regression, a parsimonious model applying nine risk factors together was developed for predicting MNA, demonstrating a PPV of 69% and a NPV of 81%. Patients with MNA had more than twice the risk of biopsy proven acute rejection, 1.6 times the risk of hospitalization, and 1.8 times the risk of graft loss. Utilization of a predictive model to determine risk of MNA after pediatric KTX may offer clinicians the ability to efficiently and effectively monitor MNA following transplant. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Microsatellite Instability Predicts Clinical Outcome in Radiation-Treated Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilbao, Cristina; Lara, Pedro Carlos; Ramirez, Raquel; Henriquez-Hernandez, Luis Alberto; Rodriguez, German; Falcon, Orlando; Leon, Laureano; Perucho, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To elucidate whether microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts clinical outcome in radiation-treated endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC). Methods and Materials: A consecutive series of 93 patients with EEC treated with extrafascial hysterectomy and postoperative radiotherapy was studied. The median clinical follow-up of patients was 138 months, with a maximum of 232 months. Five quasimonomorphic mononucleotide markers (BAT-25, BAT-26, NR21, NR24, and NR27) were used for MSI classification. Results: Twenty-five patients (22%) were classified as MSI. Both in the whole series and in early stages (I and II), univariate analysis showed a significant association between MSI and poorer 10-year local disease-free survival, disease-free survival, and cancer-specific survival. In multivariate analysis, MSI was excluded from the final regression model in the whole series, but in early stages MSI provided additional significant predictive information independent of traditional prognostic and predictive factors (age, stage, grade, and vascular invasion) for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-10.49; p = 0.048) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.23-14.35; p = 0.022) and was marginally significant for local disease-free survival (HR 3.54, 95% CI 0.93-13.46; p = 0.064). Conclusions: These results suggest that MSI may predict radiotherapy response in early-stage EEC.

  5. Linearized and Kernelized Sparse Multitask Learning for Predicting Cognitive Outcomes in Alzheimer’s Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli Liu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD has been not only the substantial financial burden to the health care system but also the emotional burden to patients and their families. Predicting cognitive performance of subjects from their magnetic resonance imaging (MRI measures and identifying relevant imaging biomarkers are important research topics in the study of Alzheimer’s disease. Recently, the multitask learning (MTL methods with sparsity-inducing norm (e.g., l2,1-norm have been widely studied to select the discriminative feature subset from MRI features by incorporating inherent correlations among multiple clinical cognitive measures. However, these previous works formulate the prediction tasks as a linear regression problem. The major limitation is that they assumed a linear relationship between the MRI features and the cognitive outcomes. Some multikernel-based MTL methods have been proposed and shown better generalization ability due to the nonlinear advantage. We quantify the power of existing linear and nonlinear MTL methods by evaluating their performance on cognitive score prediction of Alzheimer’s disease. Moreover, we extend the traditional l2,1-norm to a more general lql1-norm (q≥1. Experiments on the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database showed that the nonlinear l2,1lq-MKMTL method not only achieved better prediction performance than the state-of-the-art competitive methods but also effectively fused the multimodality data.

  6. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  7. Prognostic Value of Histology and Lymph Node Status in Bilharziasis-Bladder Cancer: Outcome Prediction Using Neural Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ji, W

    2001-01-01

    .... Throughout the analysis of the prognostic feature combinations, two features, histological type and lymph node status, have been identified as the important indicators for outcome prediction of this type of cancer...

  8. Hearing outcomes of vestibular schwannoma patients managed with 'wait and scan': predictive value of hearing level at diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stangerup, S-E; Tos, M; Thomsen, J

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of both hearing level (at various frequencies) and speech discrimination for forecasting hearing outcome after a period of observation, in patients with vestibular schwannoma....

  9. Presurgery resting-state local graph-theory measures predict neurocognitive outcomes after brain surgery in temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doucet, Gaelle E; Rider, Robert; Taylor, Nathan; Skidmore, Christopher; Sharan, Ashwini; Sperling, Michael; Tracy, Joseph I

    2015-04-01

    This study determined the ability of resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) graph-theory measures to predict neurocognitive status postsurgery in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) who underwent anterior temporal lobectomy (ATL). A presurgical resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) condition was collected in 16 left and 16 right TLE patients who underwent ATL. In addition, patients received neuropsychological testing pre- and postsurgery in verbal and nonverbal episodic memory, language, working memory, and attention domains. Regarding the functional data, we investigated three graph-theory properties (local efficiency, distance, and participation), measuring segregation, integration and centrality, respectively. These measures were only computed in regions of functional relevance to the ictal pathology, or the cognitive domain. Linear regression analyses were computed to predict the change in each neurocognitive domain. Our analyses revealed that cognitive outcome was successfully predicted with at least 68% of the variance explained in each model, for both TLE groups. The only model not significantly predictive involved nonverbal episodic memory outcome in right TLE. Measures involving the healthy hippocampus were the most common among the predictors, suggesting that enhanced integration of this structure with the rest of the brain may improve cognitive outcomes. Regardless of TLE group, left inferior frontal regions were the best predictors of language outcome. Working memory outcome was predicted mostly by right-sided regions, in both groups. Overall, the results indicated our integration measure was the most predictive of neurocognitive outcome. In contrast, our segregation measure was the least predictive. This study provides evidence that presurgery rsFC measures may help determine neurocognitive outcomes following ATL. The results have implications for refining our understanding of compensatory reorganization and predicting

  10. Using behavioral theories of choice to predict drinking outcomes following a brief intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James G; Correia, Christopher J; Colby, Suzanne M; Vuchinich, Rudy E

    2005-05-01

    Behavioral theories of choice predict that substance use is partly a function of the relative value of drugs in relation to other available reinforcers. This study evaluated this hypothesis in the context of predicting drinking outcomes following an alcohol abuse intervention. Participants (N = 54, 69% female, 31% male) were college student heavy drinkers who completed a single-session motivational intervention. Students completed a baseline measure of substance-related and substance-free activity participation and enjoyment. Only women showed a significant reduction in drinking at the 6-month follow-up, and the ratio of substance-related to substance-free reinforcement accounted for unique variance in their drinking outcomes. Women who at baseline derived a smaller proportion of their total reinforcement from substance use showed lower levels of follow-up drinking, even after the authors controlled for baseline drinking level. Male and female participants who reduced their drinking showed increased proportional reinforcement from substance-free activities. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors.

  12. Personality Pathology Predicts Outcomes in a Treatment-Seeking Sample with Bipolar I Disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan J. Wenze

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a clinical trial to explore the relationship between degree of personality disorder (PD pathology (i.e., number of subthreshold and threshold PD symptoms and mood and functioning outcomes in Bipolar I Disorder (BD-I. Ninety-two participants completed baseline mood and functioning assessments and then underwent 4 months of treatment for an index manic, mixed, or depressed phase acute episode. Additional assessments occurred over a 28-month follow-up period. PD pathology did not predict psychosocial functioning or manic symptoms at 4 or 28 months. However, it did predict depressive symptoms at both timepoints, as well as percent time symptomatic. Clusters A and C pathology were most strongly associated with depression. Our findings fit with the literature highlighting the negative repercussions of PD pathology on a range of outcomes in mood disorders. This study builds upon previous research, which has largely focused on major depression and which has primarily taken a categorical approach to examining PD pathology in BD.

  13. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J.; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L.

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms. PMID:26579000

  14. MAGIC biomarkers predict long term outcomes for steroid-resistant acute GVHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major-Monfried, Hannah; Renteria, Anne S; Pawarode, Attaphol; Reddy, Pavan; Ayuk, Francis; Holler, Ernst; Efebera, Yvonne A; Hogan, William J; Wölfl, Matthias; Qayed, Muna; Hexner, Elizabeth O; Wudhikarn, Kitsada; Ordemann, Rainer; Young, Rachel; Shah, Jay; Hartwell, Matthew J; Chaudhry, Mohammed; Aziz, Mina; Etra, Aaron; Yanik, Gregory A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Weber, Daniela; Chen, Yi-Bin; Nakamura, Ryotaro; Rösler, Wolf; Kitko, Carrie L; Harris, Andrew C; Pulsipher, Michael; Reshef, Ran; Kowalyk, Steven; Morales, George; Torres, Ivan; Özbek, Umut; Ferrara, James L M; Levine, John E

    2018-03-15

    Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after one week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long term outcomes vary widely between centers and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into test (n=236) and two validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and 129, respectively). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at four weeks, one-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of two MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid resistant patients into two groups with dramatically different NRM and OS (p<0.001 for all three cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating curves showed the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, p=0.004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, p=0.005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after one week of systemic treatment for GVHD predict long term outcomes in steroid resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Hematology.

  15. Predictive Capacity of Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R) in alcohol use disorder outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ávila Escribano, José Juan; Sánchez Barba, Mercedes; Álvarez Pedrero, Aida; López Villarreal, Ana; Recio Pérez, Joaquina; Rodríguez Rodilla, Manuela; Fraile García, Eulalia

    2016-06-14

    to investigate the ability to predict the outcome of alcohol use disorders through Cloninger's temperament and character inventory (TCI-R). this is a prospective study consisting of 237 outpatients with alcohol use disorders who underwent follow-up treatment for 6 months and whose personality traits were studied using TCI-R. At the end of that period, the scores of each TCI-R trait were analyzed in terms of those who remained in treatment and those who dropped out. The whole group scored highly in novelty seeking (NS) and harm avoidance (HA) and produced low scores in self-directedness (SD), these last traits are considered prominent. The drop-out group scored significantly (p=.004) higher in novelty seeking (NS) than the follow-up group. Also, when the score was higher than the 67 percentile the likelihood of abandoning the treatment was 1.07 times higher. Cloninger's temperament and character inventory is a good instrument to predict the outcome of treatment of patients with alcohol use disorders and the novelty seeking (NS) dimension is strongly related to therapeutic drop-out.

  16. Parent-Child Math Anxiety and Math-Gender Stereotypes Predict Adolescents’ Math Education Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina J Casad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents’ math anxiety including parents’ own math anxiety and children’s endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent’s math anxiety interacts with daughters’ and sons’ anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children’s math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA. Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and for boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents’ math anxiety in the effects of children’s math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents’ math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms.

  17. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms.

  18. A comparison of published multidimensional indices to predict outcome in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Sharp

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF has an unpredictable course and prognostic factors are incompletely understood. We aimed to identify prognostic factors, including multidimensional indices from a significant IPF cohort at the Bristol Interstitial Lung Disease Centre in the UK. Patients diagnosed with IPF between 2007 and 2014 were identified. Longitudinal pulmonary physiology and exercise testing results were collated, with all-cause mortality used as the primary outcome. Factors influencing overall, 12- and 24-month survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We found in this real-world cohort of 167 patients, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO and initiation of long-term oxygen were independent markers of poor prognosis. Exercise testing results predicted 12-month mortality as well as DLCO, but did not perform as well for overall survival. The Composite Physiological Index was the best performing multidimensional index, but did not outperform DLCO. Our data confirmed that patients who experienced a fall in forced vital capacity (FVC >10% had significantly worse survival after that point (p=0.024. Our data from longitudinal follow-up in IPF show that DLCO is the best individual prognostic marker, outperforming FVC. Exercise testing is important in predicting early poor outcome. Regular and complete review should be conducted to ensure appropriate care is delivered in a timely fashion.

  19. Outcome of Patients Underwent Emergency Department Thoracotomy and Its Predictive Factors

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    Shahram Paydar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency department thoracotomy (EDT may serve as the last survival chance for patients who arrive at hospital in extremis. It is considered as an effective tool for improvement of traumatic patients’ outcome. The present study was done with the goal of assessing the outcome of patients who underwent EDT and its predictive factors. Methods: In the present study, medical charts of 50 retrospective and 8 prospective cases underwent emergency department thoracotomy (EDT were reviewed during November 2011 to June 2013. Comparisons between survived and died patients were performed by Mann-Whitney U test and the predictive factors of EDT outcome were measured using multivariate logistic regression analysis. P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: Fifty eight cases of EDT were enrolled (86.2% male. The mean age of patients was 43.27±19.85 years with the range of 18-85. The mean time duration of CPR was recorded as 37.12±12.49 minutes. Eleven cases (19% were alive to be transported to OR (defined as ED survived. The mean time of survival in ED survived patients was 223.5±450.8 hours. More than 24 hours survival rate (late survived was 6.9% (4 cases. Only one case (1.7% survived to discharge from hospital (mortality rate=98.3%. There were only a significant relation between ED survival and SBP, GCS, CPR duration, and chest trauma (p=0.04. The results demonstrated that initial SBP lower than 80 mmHg (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.001-1.05, p=0.04 and presence of chest trauma (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.75-3.16, p=0.02 were independent predictive factors of EDT mortality. Conclusion: The findings of the present study showed that the survival rate of trauma patients underwent EDT was 1.7%. In addition, it was defined that falling systolic blood pressure below 80 mmHg and blunt trauma of chest are independent factors that along with poor outcome.

  20. Utilizing Machine Learning and Automated Performance Metrics to Evaluate Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy Performance and Predict Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Andrew J; Chen, Jian; Che, Zhengping; Nilanon, Tanachat; Jarc, Anthony; Titus, Micha; Oh, Paul J; Gill, Inderbir S; Liu, Yan

    2018-05-01

    Surgical performance is critical for clinical outcomes. We present a novel machine learning (ML) method of processing automated performance metrics (APMs) to evaluate surgical performance and predict clinical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP). We trained three ML algorithms utilizing APMs directly from robot system data (training material) and hospital length of stay (LOS; training label) (≤2 days and >2 days) from 78 RARP cases, and selected the algorithm with the best performance. The selected algorithm categorized the cases as "Predicted as expected LOS (pExp-LOS)" and "Predicted as extended LOS (pExt-LOS)." We compared postoperative outcomes of the two groups (Kruskal-Wallis/Fisher's exact tests). The algorithm then predicted individual clinical outcomes, which we compared with actual outcomes (Spearman's correlation/Fisher's exact tests). Finally, we identified five most relevant APMs adopted by the algorithm during predicting. The "Random Forest-50" (RF-50) algorithm had the best performance, reaching 87.2% accuracy in predicting LOS (73 cases as "pExp-LOS" and 5 cases as "pExt-LOS"). The "pExp-LOS" cases outperformed the "pExt-LOS" cases in surgery time (3.7 hours vs 4.6 hours, p = 0.007), LOS (2 days vs 4 days, p = 0.02), and Foley duration (9 days vs 14 days, p = 0.02). Patient outcomes predicted by the algorithm had significant association with the "ground truth" in surgery time (p algorithm in predicting, were largely related to camera manipulation. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to show that APMs and ML algorithms may help assess surgical RARP performance and predict clinical outcomes. With further accrual of clinical data (oncologic and functional data), this process will become increasingly relevant and valuable in surgical assessment and training.

  1. Could infarct location predict the long-term functional outcome in childhood arterial ischemic stroke?

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    Mauricio López-Espejo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To explore the influence of infarct location on long-term functional outcome following a first-ever arterial ischemic stroke (AIS in non-neonate children. Method: The MRIs of 39 children with AIS (median age 5.38 years; 36% girls; mean follow-up time 5.87 years were prospectively evaluated. Infarct location was classified as the absence or presence of subcortical involvement. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin scale (mRS for children after the follow-up assessment. We utilized multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the odds ratios (ORs for the outcome while adjusting for age, sex, infarct size and middle cerebral artery territory involvement (significance < 0.05. Results: Both infarcts ≥ 4% of total brain volume (OR 9.92; CI 1.76 – 55.9; p 0.009 and the presence of subcortical involvement (OR 8.36; CI 1.76 – 53.6; p 0.025 independently increased the risk of marked functional impairment (mRS 3 to 5. Conclusion: Infarct extension and location can help predict the extent of disability after childhood AIS.

  2. T cell subpopulations in lymph nodes may not be predictive of patient outcome in colorectal cancer

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    Yoon Han-Seung

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The immune response has been proposed to be an important factor in determining patient outcome in colorectal cancer (CRC. Previous studies have concentrated on characterizing T cell populations in the primary tumour where T cells with regulatory effect (Foxp3+ Tregs have been identified as both enhancing and diminishing anti-tumour immune responses. No previous studies have characterized the T cell response in the regional lymph nodes in CRC. Methods Immunohistochemistry was used to analyse CD4, CD8 or Foxp3+ T cell populations in the regional lymph nodes of patients with stage II CRC (n = 31, with (n = 13 or without (n = 18 cancer recurrence after 5 years of follow up, to determine if the priming environment for anti-tumour immunity was associated with clinical outcome. Results The proportions of CD4, CD8 or Foxp3+ cells in the lymph nodes varied widely between and within patients, and there was no association between T cell populations and cancer recurrence or other clinicopathological characteristics. Conclusions These data indicate that frequency of these T cell subsets in lymph nodes may not be a useful tool for predicting patient outcome.

  3. Prediction of methylphenidate treatment outcome in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retz, Wolfgang; Retz-Junginger, Petra

    2014-11-01

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly prevalent mental disorder of childhood, which often persists in adulthood. Methylphenidate (MPH) is one of the most effective medications to treat ADHD, but also few adult patients show no sufficient response to this drug. In this paper, we give an overview regarding genetic, neuroimaging, clinical and other studies which have tried to reveal the reasons for non-response in adults with ADHD, based on a systematic literature search. Although MPH is a well-established treatment for adults with ADHD, research regarding the prediction of treatment outcome is still limited and has resulted in inconsistent findings. No reliable neurobiological markers of treatment response have been identified so far. Some findings from clinical studies suggest that comorbidity with substance use disorders and personality disorders has an impact on treatment course and outcome. As MPH is widely used in the treatment of adults with ADHD, much more work is needed regarding positive and negative predictors of long-term treatment outcome in order to optimize the pharmacological treatment of adult ADHD patients.

  4. After laparoscopic Heller myotomy, do emergency department visits or readmissions predict poor long-term outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Sharona; Villadolid, Desiree; Al-Saadi, Sam; Boyle, Robert; Cowgill, Sarah M; Rosemurgy, Alexander

    2008-12-01

    Laparoscopic Heller myotomy is a first-line treatment for achalasia. To improve outcomes after myotomy and to determine if poor early results predict later outcomes, emergency department (ED) visits and readmissions within 60 days following laparoscopic Heller myotomy were studied. Since 1992, 352 patients have undergone laparoscopic Heller myotomy and are followed through a prospectively maintained registry. Causes of ED visits and readmissions within 60 days after myotomy were determined. Patients scored their symptoms of achalasia before myotomy and at last follow-up; scores were compared to determine if the reasons leading to ED visits and/or readmissions impacted long-term outcome after myotomy. Fourteen (4%) patients had ED visits, and 18 (5%) patients had readmissions within 60 days following myotomy. Sixty-four percent of ED visits were for dysphagia/vomiting and 36% were for abdominal/chest pain, while 37% of readmissions were for dysphagia/vomiting. Pneumonia was complicated by empyema in four patients, all without leaks; two patients expired. Despite ED visits/readmissions, achalasia symptom (e.g., dysphagia, regurgitation, choking, heartburn, and chest pain) frequency and severity scores improved after myotomy (p Heller myotomy. ED visits were generally due to complaints related to achalasia or edema after myotomy, while readmissions were generally related to complications of operative intervention or chronic ill health. Despite ED visits or readmissions early after myotomy, symptoms of achalasia are well palliated by myotomy long-term.

  5. Motivational and neurocognitive deficits are central to the prediction of longitudinal functional outcome in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fervaha, G; Foussias, G; Agid, O; Remington, G

    2014-10-01

    Functional impairment is characteristic of most individuals with schizophrenia; however, the key variables that undermine community functioning are not well understood. This study evaluated the association between selected clinical variables and one-year longitudinal functional outcomes in patients with schizophrenia. The sample included 754 patients with schizophrenia who completed both baseline and one-year follow-up visits in the CATIE study. Patients were evaluated with a comprehensive battery of assessments capturing symptom severity and cognitive performance among other variables. The primary outcome variable was functional status one-year postbaseline measured using the Heinrichs-Carpenter Quality of Life Scale. Factor analysis of negative symptom items revealed two factors reflecting diminished expression and amotivation. Multivariate regression modeling revealed several significant independent predictors of longitudinal functioning scores. The strongest predictors were baseline amotivation and neurocognition. Both amotivation and neurocognition also had independent predictive value for each of the domains of functioning assessed (e.g., vocational). Both motivational and neurocognitive deficits independently contribute to longitudinal functional outcomes assessed 1 year later among patients with schizophrenia. Both of these domains of psychopathology impede functional recovery; hence, it follows that treatments ameliorating each of these symptoms should promote community functioning among individuals with schizophrenia. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Using Innovative Acoustic Analysis to Predict the Postoperative Outcomes of Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis

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    Yung-An Tsou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Autologous fat injection laryngoplasty is ineffective for some patients with iatrogenic vocal fold paralysis, and additional laryngeal framework surgery is often required. An acoustically measurable outcome predictor for lipoinjection laryngoplasty would assist phonosurgeons in formulating treatment strategies. Methods. Seventeen thyroid surgery patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis participated in this study. All subjects underwent lipoinjection laryngoplasty to treat postsurgery vocal hoarseness. After treatment, patients were assigned to success and failure groups on the basis of voice improvement. Linear prediction analysis was used to construct a new voice quality indicator, the number of irregular peaks (NIrrP. It compared with the measures used in the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP, such as jitter (frequency perturbation and shimmer (perturbation of amplitude. Results. By comparing the [i] vowel produced by patients before the lipoinjection laryngoplasty (AUC = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.78–0.99, NIrrP was shown to be a more accurate predictor of long-term surgical outcomes than jitter (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.47–0.91 and shimmer (AUC = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.37–0.85, as identified by the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusions. NIrrP measured using the LP model could be a more accurate outcome predictor than the parameters used in the MDVP.

  7. The Functional Diffusion Map: An Imaging Biomarker for the Early Prediction of Cancer Treatment Outcome

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    Bradford A. Moffat

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Functional diffusion map (fDM has been recently reported as an early and quantitative biomarker of clinical brain tumor treatment outcome. This MRI approach spatially maps and quantifies treatment-induced changes in tumor water diffusion values resulting from alterations in cell density/cell membrane function and microenvironment. This current study was designed to evaluate the capability of fDM for preclinical evaluation of dose escalation studies and to determine if these changes were correlated with outcome measures (cell kill and overall survival. Serial T2-weighted and diffusion MRI were carried out on rodents with orthotopically implanted 9L brain tumors receiving three doses of 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl-1-nitrosourea (6.65, 13.3, and 26.6 mg/kg, i.p.. All images were coregistered to baseline T2-weighted images for fDM analysis. Analysis of tumor fDM data on day 4 posttreatment detected dosedependent changes in tumor diffusion values, which were also found to be spatially dependent. Histologic analysis of treated tumors confirmed spatial changes in cellularity as observed by fDM. Early changes in tumor diffusion values were found to be highly correlative with drug dose and independent biologic outcome measures (cell kill and survival. Therefore, the fDM imaging biomarker for early prediction of treatment efficacy can be used in the drug development process.

  8. Diagnostic evaluation of uterine artery Doppler sonography for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes

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    Mojgan Barati

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Increased impedance to flow in the uterine arteries assessed by value of the Doppler is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, especially pre-eclampsia. We investigated the predictive value of a uterine artery Doppler in the identification of adverse pregnancy outcomes such as ′pre-eclampsia′ and ′small fetus for gestational age′ (SGA. Materials and Methods: Three hundred and seventy-nine women, with singleton pregnancy, between 18 and 40 years of age, without risk factors, randomly underwent Doppler interrogation of the uterine arteries, between 16-22 weeks of gestation. Those who had a mean pulsatility index (PI of >1.45 were considered to have an abnormal result, and were evaluated and compared with those who had normal results for adverse pregnancy outcomes, including pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age. The relationship between the variables was assessed with the use of the chi-square test. Results : There were 17 cases (4.5% of abnormal uterine artery Doppler results and 15 of them (88.2% developed pre-eclampsia and four cases (23.5% had neonates small for gestational age. For predicting pre-eclampsia, the mean uterine artery PI had to be >1.45, had to have a specificity of 95.5% (95% CI, 70-92%, a sensitivity of 79% (95% CI, 43-82%, a negative predictive value (NPV of 98.9% (95% CI, 72-96%, and a positive predictive value (PPV of 88.2% (95% CI, 68-98%. In the case of ′small for gestational age′ it had to have a specificity of 96.5% (95% CI, 42-68%, a sensitivity of 57% (95% CI, 53-76%, an NPV of 99.2% (95% CI, 70-92%, and a PPV of 23.5% (95% CI, 30-72%. Conclusion : Uterine artery Doppler evaluation at 16-22 weeks of gestation might be an appropriate tool for identifying pregnancies that may be at an increased risk for development of pre-eclampsia and small fetus for gestational age.

  9. Evaluation of LRINEC Scale Feasibility for Predicting Outcomes of Fournier Gangrene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kincius, Marius; Telksnys, Titas; Trumbeckas, Darius; Jievaltas, Mindaugas; Milonas, Daimantas

    2016-08-01

    Fournier gangrene (FG) is a fulminant necrotizing infection of the perineal, perianal, and periurethral tissues. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) scale is used for diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis. However, data on its relevance and usefulness in FG are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of the LRINEC scale in predicting the outcome of FG. This retrospective case study included 41 patents with FG treated at our institution from 2000 to 2013. The patients were divided into survivors and non-survivors. The mortality rate was 22%. The median age (75 vs. 62.5 y; p = 0.013), rate of co-existing diabetes mellitus (66.7% vs. 3.1%; p < 0.001), and median affected skin surface (4% vs. 1%; p < 0.001) were greater in the non-survivors. Seven of nine patients (77.8%) who did not survive (compared with 37.5% who survived) had a polymicrobial infection (p = 0.032). Of all the causative pathogens isolated, Proteus mirabilis was more common in non-survivors (55.6% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.001). The median calculated LRINEC score for survivors was 5 compared with 10 for the non-survivors (p < 0.001). Regression analysis showed that all the aforementioned variables, except for polymicrobial culture, were significant risk factors for predicting death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the LRINEC score was the highest, 0.976 (95% confidence interval 0.872-0.999; p < 0.0001), and the cut-off value was ≥9 with 93.7% specificity and 100% susceptibility for the prediction of a lethal outcome. The LRINEC score could be used for prediction of disease severity and outcomes. A threshold of 9 could be a high-value predictor of death during the initial evaluation of patients with FG.

  10. Sputum biomarkers and the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with cystic fibrosis.

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    Theodore G Liou

    Full Text Available Lung function, acute pulmonary exacerbations (APE, and weight are the best clinical predictors of survival in cystic fibrosis (CF; however, underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Biomarkers of current disease state predictive of future outcomes might identify mechanisms and provide treatment targets, trial endpoints and objective clinical monitoring tools. Such CF-specific biomarkers have previously been elusive. Using observational and validation cohorts comprising 97 non-transplanted consecutively-recruited adult CF patients at the Intermountain Adult CF Center, University of Utah, we identified biomarkers informative of current disease and predictive of future clinical outcomes. Patients represented the majority of sputum producers. They were recruited March 2004-April 2007 and followed through May 2011. Sputum biomarker concentrations were measured and clinical outcomes meticulously recorded for a median 5.9 (interquartile range 5.0 to 6.6 years to study associations between biomarkers and future APE and time-to-lung transplantation or death. After multivariate modeling, only high mobility group box-1 protein (HMGB-1, mean=5.84 [log ng/ml], standard deviation [SD] =1.75 predicted time-to-first APE (hazard ratio [HR] per log-unit HMGB-1=1.56, p-value=0.005, number of future APE within 5 years (0.338 APE per log-unit HMGB-1, p<0.001 by quasi-Poisson regression and time-to-lung transplantation or death (HR=1.59, p=0.02. At APE onset, sputum granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF, mean 4.8 [log pg/ml], SD=1.26 was significantly associated with APE-associated declines in lung function (-10.8 FEV(1% points per log-unit GM-CSF, p<0.001 by linear regression. Evaluation of validation cohorts produced similar results that passed tests of mutual consistency. In CF sputum, high HMGB-1 predicts incidence and recurrence of APE and survival, plausibly because it mediates long-term airway inflammation. High APE-associated GM

  11. Outcome prediction in mild traumatic brain injury: age and clinical variables are stronger predictors than CT abnormalities.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, B.; Beems, T.; Stulemeijer, M.; Vugt, A.B. van; Vliet, A.M. van der; Borm, G.F.; Vos, P.E.

    2010-01-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is a common heterogeneous neurological disorder with a wide range of possible clinical outcomes. Accurate prediction of outcome is desirable for optimal treatment. This study aimed both to identify the demographic, clinical, and computed tomographic (CT)

  12. How adverse outcome pathways can aid the development and use of computational prediction models for regulatory toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumu...

  13. Predicting High School Outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools. The Senior Urban Education Research Fellowship Series. Volume VII

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Iver, Martha Abele; Messel, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    This study of high school outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools builds on substantial prior research on the early warning indicators of dropping out. It sought to investigate whether the same variables that predicted a non-graduation outcome in other urban districts--attendance, behavior problems, and course failure--were also significant…

  14. Are patient-reported outcomes predictive of patient satisfaction 5 years after anterior cervical spine surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Gregory D; Coric, Dom; Kim, Han Jo; Albert, Todd J; Radcliff, Kris E

    2017-07-01

    Patient satisfaction is becoming an increasing common proxy for surgical quality; however, the correlation between patient satisfaction and surgical outcomes 2 and 5 years after anterior cervical surgery has not been evaluated. The study aimed to determine if patient satisfaction is predicted by improvement in patient-reported outcomes (PRO) 2 and 5 years after anterior cervical spine surgery. This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The sample included patients enrolled in the Food and Drug Administration investigational device exemption clinical trial comparing total disc replacement with Mobi-C cervical artificial disc and anterior cervical discectomy and fusion. The outcome measures were visual analog scale (VAS) neck pain score, Neck Disability Index (NDI), and Short-Form 12-Item scores, as well as patient satisfaction. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine if improvement in different PRO metrics can accurately identify patient satisfaction. Additionally, a logistic regression analysis was performed on the results at 24 months and 60 months to identify independent predictors of patient satisfaction. This research was supported by LDR (Zimmer Biomet) 13785 Research Boulevard - Suite 200 Austin, TX 78750. Data were available for 512 patients at 60 months. At 24 months postoperatively, NDI score improvement (area under the curve [AUC]=0.806), absolute NDI score (AUC=0.823), and absolute VAS neck pain score (AUC=0.808) were all excellent predictors of patient satisfaction. At 60 months postoperatively, NDI score improvement (AUC=0.815), absolute NDI score (AUC=0.839), VAS neck pain score improvement (AUC=0.803), and absolute VAS neck pain score (AUC=0.861) were all excellent predictors of patient satisfaction. In patients undergoing one- and two-level anterior cervical spine surgery, between 2 and 5 years postoperatively, patient satisfaction is significantly predicted by PROs, including the VAS neck score and the

  15. Predicting clinical outcomes in chordoma patients receiving immunotherapy: a comparison between volumetric segmentation and RECIST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenerty, Kathleen E.; Folio, Les R.; Patronas, Nicholas J.; Marté, Jennifer L.; Gulley, James L.; Heery, Christopher R.

    2016-01-01

    The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) are the current standard for evaluating disease progression or therapy response in patients with solid tumors. RECIST 1.1 calls for axial, longest-diameter (or perpendicular short axis of lymph nodes) measurements of a maximum of five tumors, which limits clinicians’ ability to adequately measure disease burden, especially in patients with irregularly shaped tumors. This is especially problematic in chordoma, a disease for which RECIST does not always adequately capture disease burden because chordoma tumors are typically irregularly shaped and slow-growing. Furthermore, primary chordoma tumors tend to be adjacent to vital structures in the skull or sacrum that, when compressed, lead to significant clinical consequences. Volumetric segmentation is a newer technology that allows tumor burden to be measured in three dimensions on either MR or CT. Here, we compared the ability of RECIST measurements and tumor volumes to predict clinical outcomes in a cohort of 21 chordoma patients receiving immunotherapy. There was a significant difference in radiologic time to progression Kaplan-Meier curves between clinical outcome groups using volumetric segmentation (P = 0.012) but not RECIST (P = 0.38). In several cases, changes in volume were earlier and more sensitive reflections of clinical status. RECIST is a useful evaluation method when obvious changes are occurring in patients with chordoma. However, in many cases, RECIST does not detect small changes, and volumetric assessment was capable of detecting changes and predicting clinical outcome earlier than RECIST. Although this study was small and retrospective, we believe our results warrant further research in this area

  16. Incidence, predictive factors, and clinical outcomes of acute kidney injury after gastric surgery for gastric cancer.

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    Chang Seong Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI, a serious surgical complication, is common after cardiac surgery; however, reports on AKI after noncardiac surgery are limited. We sought to determine the incidence and predictive factors of AKI after gastric surgery for gastric cancer and its effects on the clinical outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 4718 patients with normal renal function who underwent partial or total gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2002 and December 2011. Postoperative AKI was defined by serum creatinine change, as per the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guideline. RESULTS: Of the 4718 patients, 679 (14.4% developed AKI. Length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission rates, and in-hospital mortality rate (3.5% versus 0.2% were significantly higher in patients with AKI than in those without. AKI was also associated with requirement of renal replacement therapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that male gender; hypertension; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; hypoalbuminemia (<4 g/dl; use of diuretics, vasopressors, and contrast agents; and packed red blood cell transfusion were independent predictors for AKI after gastric surgery. Postoperative AKI and vasopressor use entailed a high risk of 3-month mortality after multiple adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: AKI was common after gastric surgery for gastric cancer and associated with adverse outcomes. We identified several factors associated with postoperative AKI; recognition of these predictive factors may help reduce the incidence of AKI after gastric surgery. Furthermore, postoperative AKI in patients with gastric cancer is an important risk factor for short-term mortality.

  17. Usefulness of Serum Triiodothyronine (T3) to Predict Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothberger, Gary D; Gadhvi, Sonya; Michelakis, Nickolaos; Kumar, Amit; Calixte, Rose; Shapiro, Lawrence E

    2017-02-15

    Thyroid hormone plays an important role in cardiac function. Low levels of serum triiodothyronine (T 3 ) due to nonthyroidal illness syndrome may have adverse effects in heart failure (HF). This study was designed to assess the ability of T 3 to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients with acute HF. In total, 137 patients without thyroid disease or treatment with drugs which affect TH levels, who were hospitalized with acute HF were prospectively enrolled and studied. TH levels were tested upon hospital admission, and outcomes were compared between patients with low (<2.3 pg/ml) and normal (≥2.3 pg/ml) free T 3 levels as well as between those with low (<0.6 ng/ml) and normal (≥0.6 ng/ml) total T 3 levels. Low free T 3 correlated with an increased length of stay in the hospital (median 11 vs 7 days, p <0.001) and higher rates of intensive care unit admission (31.8% vs 16.9%, p = 0.047), with a trend toward increased need for invasive mechanical ventilation (9.0% vs 1.4%, p = 0.056). Low total T3 correlated with an increased length of stay in the hospital (median 11 vs 7 days, p <0.001) and increased need for invasive mechanical ventilation (9.8% vs 1.3%, p = 0.045). In conclusion, low T 3 predicts worse hospital outcomes in patients with acute HF and can be useful in the risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Predicting Implantation Outcome of In Vitro Fertilization and Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection Using Data Mining Techniques

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    Pegah Hafiz

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background In vitro fertilization (IVF and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI are two important subsets of the assisted reproductive techniques, used for the treatment of infertility. Predicting implantation outcome of IVF/ICSI or the chance of pregnancy is essential for infertile couples, since these treatments are complex and expensive with a low probability of conception. Materials and Methods In this cross-sectional study, the data of 486 patients were collected using census method. The IVF/ICSI dataset contains 29 variables along with an identifier for each patient that is either negative or positive. Mean accuracy and mean area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve are calculated for the classifiers. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios of classifiers are employed as indicators of performance. The state-of-art classifiers which are candidates for this study include support vector machines, recursive partitioning (RPART, random forest (RF, adaptive boosting, and one-nearest neighbor. Results RF and RPART outperform the other comparable methods. The results revealed the areas under the ROC curve (AUC as 84.23 and 82.05%, respectively. The importance of IVF/ICSI features was extracted from the output of RPART. Our findings demonstrate that the probability of pregnancy is low for women aged above 38. Conclusion Classifiers RF and RPART are better at predicting IVF/ICSI cases compared to other decision makers that were tested in our study. Elicited decision rules of RPART determine useful predictive features of IVF/ICSI. Out of 20 factors, the age of woman, number of developed embryos, and serum estradiol level on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin administration are the three best features for such prediction.

  19. A wavelet-based technique to predict treatment outcome for Major Depressive Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Likun; Mohd Yasin, Mohd Azhar; Azhar Ali, Syed Saad

    2017-01-01

    Treatment management for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has been challenging. However, electroencephalogram (EEG)-based predictions of antidepressant’s treatment outcome may help during antidepressant’s selection and ultimately improve the quality of life for MDD patients. In this study, a machine learning (ML) method involving pretreatment EEG data was proposed to perform such predictions for Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRIs). For this purpose, the acquisition of experimental data involved 34 MDD patients and 30 healthy controls. Consequently, a feature matrix was constructed involving time-frequency decomposition of EEG data based on wavelet transform (WT) analysis, termed as EEG data matrix. However, the resultant EEG data matrix had high dimensionality. Therefore, dimension reduction was performed based on a rank-based feature selection method according to a criterion, i.e., receiver operating characteristic (ROC). As a result, the most significant features were identified and further be utilized during the training and testing of a classification model, i.e., the logistic regression (LR) classifier. Finally, the LR model was validated with 100 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation (10-CV). The classification results were compared with short-time Fourier transform (STFT) analysis, and empirical mode decompositions (EMD). The wavelet features extracted from frontal and temporal EEG data were found statistically significant. In comparison with other time-frequency approaches such as the STFT and EMD, the WT analysis has shown highest classification accuracy, i.e., accuracy = 87.5%, sensitivity = 95%, and specificity = 80%. In conclusion, significant wavelet coefficients extracted from frontal and temporal pre-treatment EEG data involving delta and theta frequency bands may predict antidepressant’s treatment outcome for the MDD patients. PMID:28152063

  20. Same admissions tools, different outcomes: a critical perspective on predictive validity in three undergraduate medical schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Daniel; Friedman, Tim; Pearce, Jacob

    2013-12-27

    Admission to medical school is one of the most highly competitive entry points in higher education. Considerable investment is made by universities to develop selection processes that aim to identify the most appropriate candidates for their medical programs. This paper explores data from three undergraduate medical schools to offer a critical perspective of predictive validity in medical admissions. This study examined 650 undergraduate medical students from three Australian universities as they progressed through the initial years of medical school (accounting for approximately 25 per cent of all commencing undergraduate medical students in Australia in 2006 and 2007). Admissions criteria (aptitude test score based on UMAT, school result and interview score) were correlated with GPA over four years of study. Standard regression of each of the three admissions variables on GPA, for each institution at each year level was also conducted. Overall, the data found positive correlations between performance in medical school, school achievement and UMAT, but not interview. However, there were substantial differences between schools, across year levels, and within sections of UMAT exposed. Despite this, each admission variable was shown to add towards explaining course performance, net of other variables. The findings suggest the strength of multiple admissions tools in predicting outcomes of medical students. However, they also highlight the large differences in outcomes achieved by different schools, thus emphasising the pitfalls of generalising results from predictive validity studies without recognising the diverse ways in which they are designed and the variation in the institutional contexts in which they are administered. The assumption that high-positive correlations are desirable (or even expected) in these studies is also problematised.

  1. A wavelet-based technique to predict treatment outcome for Major Depressive Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Wajid; Xia, Likun; Mohd Yasin, Mohd Azhar; Azhar Ali, Syed Saad; Malik, Aamir Saeed

    2017-01-01

    Treatment management for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has been challenging. However, electroencephalogram (EEG)-based predictions of antidepressant's treatment outcome may help during antidepressant's selection and ultimately improve the quality of life for MDD patients. In this study, a machine learning (ML) method involving pretreatment EEG data was proposed to perform such predictions for Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor (SSRIs). For this purpose, the acquisition of experimental data involved 34 MDD patients and 30 healthy controls. Consequently, a feature matrix was constructed involving time-frequency decomposition of EEG data based on wavelet transform (WT) analysis, termed as EEG data matrix. However, the resultant EEG data matrix had high dimensionality. Therefore, dimension reduction was performed based on a rank-based feature selection method according to a criterion, i.e., receiver operating characteristic (ROC). As a result, the most significant features were identified and further be utilized during the training and testing of a classification model, i.e., the logistic regression (LR) classifier. Finally, the LR model was validated with 100 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation (10-CV). The classification results were compared with short-time Fourier transform (STFT) analysis, and empirical mode decompositions (EMD). The wavelet features extracted from frontal and temporal EEG data were found statistically significant. In comparison with other time-frequency approaches such as the STFT and EMD, the WT analysis has shown highest classification accuracy, i.e., accuracy = 87.5%, sensitivity = 95%, and specificity = 80%. In conclusion, significant wavelet coefficients extracted from frontal and temporal pre-treatment EEG data involving delta and theta frequency bands may predict antidepressant's treatment outcome for the MDD patients.

  2. Comparing frailty measures in their ability to predict adverse outcome among older residents of assisted living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hogan David B

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have directly compared the competing approaches to identifying frailty in more vulnerable older populations. We examined the ability of two versions of a frailty index (43 vs. 83 items, the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS frailty criteria, and the CHESS scale to accurately predict the occurrence of three outcomes among Assisted Living (AL residents followed over one year. Methods The three frailty measures and the CHESS scale were derived from assessment items completed among 1,066 AL residents (aged 65+ participating in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies (ACCES. Adjusted risks of one-year mortality, hospitalization and long-term care placement were estimated for those categorized as frail or pre-frail compared with non-frail (or at high/intermediate vs. low risk on CHESS. The area under the ROC curve (AUC was calculated for select models to assess the predictive accuracy of the different frailty measures and CHESS scale in relation to the three outcomes examined. Results Frail subjects defined by the three approaches and those at high risk for decline on CHESS showed a statistically significant increased risk for death and long-term care placement compared with those categorized as either not frail or at low risk for decline. The risk estimates for hospitalization associated with the frailty measures and CHESS were generally weaker with one of the frailty indices (43 items showing no significant association. For death and long-term care placement, the addition of frailty (however derived or CHESS significantly improved on the AUC obtained with a model including only age, sex and co-morbidity, though the magnitude of improvement was sometimes small. The different frailty/risk models did not differ significantly from each other in predicting mortality or hospitalization; however, one of the frailty indices (83 items showed significantly better performance over the other measures in predicting long

  3. Do symptom-specific stages of change predict eating disorder treatment outcome?

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    Ackard, Diann M; Cronemeyer, Catherine L; Richter, Sara; Egan, Amber

    2015-03-01

    Interview methods to assess stages of change (SOC) in eating disorders (ED) indicate that SOC are positively correlated with symptom improvement over time. However, interviews require significant time and staff training and global measures of SOC do not capture varying levels of motivation across ED symptoms. This study used a self-report, ED symptom-specific SOC measure to determine prevalence of stages across symptoms and identify if SOC predict treatment outcome. Participants [N = 182; age 13-58 years; 92% Caucasian; 96% female; average BMI 21.7 (SD = 5.9); 50% ED not otherwise specified (EDNOS), 30.8% bulimia nervosa (BN), 19.2% anorexia nervosa (AN)] seeking ED treatment at a diverse-milieu multi-disciplinary facility in the United States completed stages of change, behavioral (ED symptom use and frequency) and psychological (ED concerns, anxiety, depression) measures at intake assessment and at 3, 6 and 12 months thereafter. Descriptive summaries were generated using ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis (continuous) and χ (2) (categorical) tests. Repeated measures linear regression models with autoregressive correlation structure predicted treatment outcome. At intake assessment, 53.3% of AN, 34.0% of BN and 18.1% of EDNOS patients were in Preparation/Action. Readiness to change specific symptoms was highest for binge-eating (57.8%) and vomiting (56.5%). Frequency of fasting and restricting behaviors, and scores on all eating disorder and psychological measures improved over time regardless of SOC at intake assessment. Symptom-specific SOC did not predict reductions in ED symptom frequency. Overall SOC predicted neither improvement in Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q) scores nor reduction in depression or trait anxiety; however, higher overall SOC predicted lower state anxiety across follow-up. Readiness to change ED behaviors varies considerably. Most patients reduced eating disorder behaviors and increased psychological functioning regardless of stages

  4. Utility of screening questionnaire and polysomnography to predict postoperative outcomes in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kako, Hiromi; Tripi, Jennifer; Walia, Hina; Tumin, Dmitry; Splaingard, Mark; Jatana, Kris R; Tobias, Joseph D; Raman, Vidya T

    2017-11-01

    The prevalence of pediatric obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has increased concurrently with the increasing prevalence of obesity. We have previously validated a short questionnaire predicting the occurrence of OSA on polysomnography (PSG). This follow-up study assessed the utility of the questionnaire in predicting postoperative outcomes. Children undergoing surgery and completing a sleep study were prospectively screened for OSA using a short questionnaire. Procedures within 1 year of PSG were included in the analysis. Questionnaires were scored according to a cutoff previously deemed optimal for predicting OSA (apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 5) on the sleep study. Postoperative outcomes included prolonged (>60 min) length of stay (LOS) in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) and oxygen requirement in the PACU. The study cohort included 185 patients (100/85 male/female) age 8 ± 4 years, undergoing adenotonsillectomy (n = 109), other ear, nose, and throat (ENT) procedures (n = 18), or non-ENT procedures (n = 58). There were 45 patients with OSA documented by PSG and 122 patients identified as likely to have OSA according to questionnaire responses (89% sensitivity, 41% specificity). PACU LOS was prolonged in 55/181 (30%) cases and supplemental oxygen was used in the PACU in 29/181 (16%) cases. In separate multivariable models, supplemental oxygen use in the PACU was more common if a patient scored ≥2/6 points on the short questionnaire scale (OR = 5.0; 95% CI: 1.3, 19.9; p = 0.023) or if the patient was diagnosed with OSA on PSG (OR = 4.6; 95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.005). Neither OSA on PSG nor questionnaire score ≥2/6 were associated with prolonged PACU stay. Both OSA diagnosis based on the AHI and the questionnaire scale achieved comparable predictive value for the need for oxygen use in the PACU. The utility of the questionnaire in predicting rare adverse events (e.g., unplanned admission or rapid response team activation) remains to be determined

  5. Does socioeconomic status predict course and outcome in patients with psychosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samele, C; van Os, J; McKenzie, K; Wright, A; Gilvarry, C; Manley, C; Tattan, T; Murray, R

    2001-12-01

    We examined the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and course and outcome of patients with psychosis. Two hypotheses were examined: a) patients with higher best-ever SES will have better course and outcome than those with lower best-ever SES, and b) patients with greater downward drift in SES will have poorer course and outcome than those with less downward drift. Data were drawn from the baseline and 2-year follow-up assessments of the UK700 Case Management Trial of 708 patients with severe psychosis. The indicators of SES used were occupational status and educational achievement. Drift in SES was defined as change from best-ever occupation to occupation at baseline. For the baseline data highly significant differences were found between best-ever groups and negative symptoms (non-manual vs. unemployed--coef -10.5, p=0.000, 95% CIs 5.1-15.8), functioning (non-manual vs. unemployed--coef -0.6, p=0.000, 95% CIs 0.3 to -0.8) and unmet needs (manual vs. unemployed - coef 0.5, p=0.004, 95% CIs 0.2-0.9). No significant differences between best-ever groups were found for days in hospital, symptoms, perceived quality of life and dissatisfaction with services. Significant differences for clinical and social variables were found between drift and non-drift SES groups. There were no significant findings between educational groups and clinical and social variables. Best-ever occupation, but not educational qualifications, appeared to predict prognosis in patients with severe psychosis. Downward drift in occupational status did not result in poorer illness course and outcome.

  6. Volumetric Nephrogram Represents Renal Function and Complements Aortic Anatomic Severity Grade in Predicting EVAR Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balceniuk, Mark D; Trakimas, Lauren; Aghaie, Claudia; Mix, Doran; Rasheed, Khurram; Seaman, Matthew; Ellis, Jennifer; Glocker, Roan; Doyle, Adam; Stoner, Michael C

    2018-07-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a predictor of poor outcomes for patients undergoing endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). Anatomic severity grade (ASG) represents a quantitative mechanism for assessing anatomical suitability for endovascular aortic repair. Anatomic severity grade has been correlated with repair outcomes and resource utilization. The purpose of this study was to identify a novel renal perfusion metric as a way to assist ASG with predicting EVAR outcomes. Retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database identified elective infrarenal aortic aneurysm repair cases. Anatomic grading was undertaken by independent reviewers. Using volumetric software, kidney volume, and a novel measure of kidney functional volume, the volumetric nephrogram (VN) was recorded. Systematic evaluation of the relationship of kidney volume and VN to CKD and ASG was undertaken using linear regression and receiver-operator statistical tools. A total of 386 cases with patient and anatomic data were identified and graded. Mean age was 72.9 ± 0.4 years. Renal volume renal volume (AUC = .628; P ≤ .0001) and VN (AUC = .628; P ≤ .0001). Regression analysis demonstrated a strong, inverse relationship between ASG and VN ( R 2 = .95). These data demonstrate that VN is a strong predictor of CKD in a large database of patients undergoing elective aneurysm repair. We demonstrate an inverse relationship between renal function and ASG that has not been previously described in the literature. Additionally, we have shown that VN complements ASG as a model of overall cardiovascular health and atherosclerotic burden. Outcomes in patients with poor renal function may be related to anatomical issues in addition to well-described systemic ramifications.

  7. Hyperdense basilar artery sign diagnoses acute posterior circulation stroke and predicts short-term outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Xiaoping [Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University at Shenyang, Department of Neurology, Shengjing Hospital, Shenyang (China); Guo, Yang [Shengjing Hospital, Department of Neurology, Shenyang (China)

    2010-12-15

    It is well established that the hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign is a specific marker for early ischemia in anterior circulation. However, little is known about the hyperdense basilar artery sign (HDBA) in posterior circulation. Our aim was to determine whether the HDBA sign has utility in early diagnosis of acute posterior circulation stroke and prediction of short-term outcome. Three-blinded readers examined unenhanced computed tomography scans for the HDBA sign, and materials were classified into two groups according to this sign. Vascular risk factors, admission and discharge National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, short-term outcome, and radiological findings between the two groups were compared. One hundred and twenty-six cases of acute posterior circulation stroke (PCS) were included in the study. No statistically significant differences were found in risk factors of ischemic stroke, except atrial fibrillation (P = 0.025). Admission and discharge NIHSS scores for the positive HDBA group were significantly higher than scores for the negative HDBA group (P = 0.001, 0.002, respectively). The infarction territory for the positive HDBA group was mainly multi-region in nature (51.6%, P < 0.001), while the negative HDBA group showed mainly middle territory infarction. Significant independent predictors of short-term outcome included the HDBA sign (P < 0.001) and admission NIHSS scores (P < 0.001). Approximately half of the HDBA patients showed multi-region infarction and a serious neurological symptom. Based on our results, this sign might not only be helpful in early diagnosis of acute PCS but also be able to correlate with a poor short-term outcome. (orig.)

  8. Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

    2017-05-01

    Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Predicting Outcome in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH) Utilizing the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiler, F A; Lo, B W Y; Akoth, E; Silvaggio, J; Kaufmann, A M; Teitelbaum, J; West, M

    2017-12-01

    Existing scoring systems for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients fail to accurately predict patient outcome. Our goal was to prospectively study the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score as applied to newly admitted aneurysmal SAH patients. All adult patients presenting to Health Sciences Center in Winnipeg from January 2013 to July 2015 (2.5 year period) with aneurysmal SAH were prospectively enrolled in this study. All patients were followed up to 6 months. FOUR score was calculated upon admission, with repeat calculation at 7 and 14 days. The primary outcomes were: mortality, as well as dichotomized 1- and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) values. Sixty-four patients were included, with a mean age of 54.2 years (range 26-85 years). The mean FOUR score upon admission pre- and post-external ventricular drain (EVD) was 10.3 (range 0-16) and 11.1 (range 3-16), respectively. There was a statistically significant association between pre-EVD FOUR score (total, eye, respiratory and motor sub-scores) with mortality, 1-month GOS, and 6-month GOS/mRS (p FOUR scores were associated with mortality, 1-month GOS/mRS, and 6-month GOS/mRS (p FOUR scores were associated with 6-month GOS (p FOUR score was associated with the development of clinical vasospasm (p FOUR score at admission and day 7 post-SAH is associated with mortality, 1-month GOS/mRS, and 6-month GOS/mRS. The FOUR score at day 14 post-SAH is associated with 6-month GOS. The brainstem sub-score was not associated with 1- or 6-month primary outcomes.

  10. Does the Ovarian Stimulation Phase Length Predict In vitro Fertilization Outcomes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Baerwald

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bi-directional communication between the follicle and oocyte is necessary toregulate follicle and oocyte development. Currently, it is not practical to monitor the serial growthof individual follicles during assisted reproduction. The ovarian stimulation phase length (SPLis an indirect measure of mean follicular growth rate. The objective of this study was to test thehypothesis that a short or long SPL would be associated with suboptimal outcomes in womenundergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF.Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 140 women who underwentIVF. Follicle development was monitored every 2-3 days during ovarian stimulation usingtransvaginal ultrasonography. Once > 3 follicles reached ≥ 17 mm, human chorionic gonadotropin(hCG was administered. Oocyte retrieval was performed approximately 35 hours after hCG.Oocytes underwent IVF on the day of collection and were evaluated daily thereafter. Embryos weretransferred on days 3 or 5, depending on the number and quality of embryos available. Associationsbetween SPL, age, follicle, oocyte, embryo and pregnancy outcomes were evaluated (SPSS version17.0; SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA.Results: A SPL of 11 days was associated with an optimal number of follicles that developed to≥ 6 mm, ≥ 10 mm and ≥ 15 mm; serum estradiol concentrations; and number of oocytes collected(p0.05. Associations betweenSPL and outcomes were not influenced by age (p>0.05.Conclusion: The ovarian SPL can be used to predict the number of follicles that develop, oocytescollected and serum estradiol concentrations, but not embryo or pregnancy outcomes.

  11. Predictive Factors in OCT Analysis for Visual Outcome in Exudative AMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Andreea Gamulescu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Reliable predictive factors for therapy outcome may enable treating physicians to counsel their patients more efficiently concerning probability of improvement or time point of discontinuation of a certain therapy. Methods. This is a retrospective analysis of 87 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration who received three monthly intravitreal ranibizumab injections. Visual acuity before initiation of intravitreal therapy and 4–6 weeks after last intravitreal injection was compared and related to the preoperative visualisation of continuity of the outer retinal layers as assessed by OCT: external limiting membrane (ELM, inner photoreceptor segments (IPS, junction between inner and outer segments (IS/OS, and outer photoreceptor segments (OPS. Results. Visual acuity increased in 40 of 87 (46.0% patients, it remained stable in 25 (28.7%, and 22 (25.3% patients had decreased visual acuity four to six weeks after triple intravitreal ranibizumab injections. No statistically significant predictive value could be demonstrated for grade of continuity of outer retinal layers concerning visual acuity development. Conclusions. In our series of AMD patients, grade of continuity of outer retinal layers was not a significant predictive value for visual acuity development after triple ranibizumab injections.

  12. Predictive factors determining outcomes in pulseless limb in paediatric supracondylar fractures of humerus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Hemant; Khanna, Vikram; Bhargava, Rakesh; Vaishya, Raju

    2018-03-01

    Amongst all the complications associated with paediatric supracondylar humerus fractures, significant vascular injury is reported in only 1% cases, of which, less than 1% develop Volkmann's ischemic contracture. This study evaluates factors, like delay in presentation of the injury, limb perfusion and pulse, in determining functional outcome in a supracondylar humerus fractures with pulseless limb. Twenty-one paediatric patients with a pulseless supracondylar humerus fracture presenting from 2012 to 2014 were included. The patients were divided into 3 groups with Group A (pulse returned post-reduction, n = 13), Group B (pink pulseless hand, n = 7) and Group C (white pulseless hand, n = 1). 11 patients in group A and 4 patients in Group B presented within 6 h. of injury while the remaining patients presented after 6 h. The primary outcome was vascular status as indicated by radial pulse and perfusion, and secondary outcomes included functional parameters assessed with Mayo Elbow Performance Score and Flynn criteria. Mean peripheral SpO2 in Group A patients was higher than Group B and Group C had a non-recordable oxygen saturation. Mean capillary refill time was more in Group A than Group B whereas in Group C patient had blanching and no capillary refill was seen. Mean Mayo Elbow Performance Score of Group A patients was highest as compared to Group B and Group C. Patients presenting within 6 h. of injury had a higher mean Mayo Elbow Performance score as compared to the patients presenting after 6 h of injury. Functional outcome as measured by Flynn Criteria was excellent in 13 patients. 6 patients had a good, 2 had fair outcome. A moderate negative corrélation (R = -0.5798) was seen between the time elapsed from the injury and the Mayo Elbow Performance score. Duration to presentation since injury, limb perfusion and presence of peripheral pulses seem to be important predictive factors determining the outcomes in pulseless supracondylar fracture humerus.

  13. Should the IDC-9 Trauma Mortality Prediction Model become the new paradigm for benchmarking trauma outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haider, Adil H; Villegas, Cassandra V; Saleem, Taimur; Efron, David T; Stevens, Kent A; Oyetunji, Tolulope A; Cornwell, Edward E; Bowman, Stephen; Haack, Sara; Baker, Susan P; Schneider, Eric B

    2012-06-01

    Optimum quantification of injury severity remains an imprecise science with a need for improvement. The accuracy of the criterion standard Injury Severity Score (ISS) worsens as a patient's injury severity increases, especially among patients with penetrating trauma. The objective of this study was to comprehensively compare the mortality prediction ability of three anatomic injury severity indices: the ISS, the New ISS (NISS), and the DRG International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev.-Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM-ICD-9), a recently developed contemporary injury assessment model. Retrospective analysis of patients in the National Trauma Data Bank from 2007 to 2008. The TMPM-ICD-9 values were computed and compared with the ISS and NISS for each patient using in-hospital mortality after trauma as the outcome measure. Discrimination and calibration were compared using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Subgroup analysis was performed to compare each score across varying ranges of injury severity and across different types of injury. A total of 533,898 patients were identified with a crude mortality rate of 4.7%. The ISS and NISS performed equally in the groups with minor (ISS, 1-8) and moderate (ISS, 9-15) injuries, regardless of the injury type. However, in the populations with severe (ISS, 16-24) and very severe (ISS, ≥ 25) injuries for all injury types, the NISS predicted mortality better than the ISS did. The TMPM-ICD-9 outperformed both the NISS and ISS almost consistently. The NISS and TMPM-ICD-9 are both superior predictors of mortality as compared with the ISS. The immediate adoption of NISS for evaluating trauma outcomes using trauma registry data is recommended. The TMPM-ICD-9 may be an even better measure of human injury, and its use in administrative or nonregistry data is suggested. Further research on its attributes is recommended because it has the potential to become the basis for benchmarking trauma outcomes

  14. Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT): a naturalistic project protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Nina; Hotopf, Matthew; Breen, Gerome; Cleare, Anthony; Grey, Nick; Hepgul, Nilay; King, Sinead; Moran, Paul; Pariante, Carmine M; Wingrove, Janet; Young, Allan H; Tylee, André

    2014-06-09

    Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent and represent a significant and well described public health burden. Whilst first line psychological treatments are effective for nearly half of attenders, there remain a substantial number of patients who do not benefit. The main objective of the present project is to establish an infrastructure platform for the identification of factors that predict lack of response to psychological treatment for depression and anxiety, in order to better target treatments as well as to support translational and experimental medicine research in mood and anxiety disorders. Predicting outcome following psychological therapy in IAPT (PROMPT) is a naturalistic observational project that began patient recruitment in January 2014. The project is currently taking place in Southwark Psychological Therapies Service, an Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) service currently provided by the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM). However, the aim is to roll-out the project across other IAPT services. Participants are approached before beginning treatment and offered a baseline interview whilst they are waiting for therapy to begin. This allows us to test for relationships between predictor variables and patient outcome measures. At the baseline interview, participants complete a diagnostic interview; are asked to give blood and hair samples for relevant biomarkers, and complete psychological and social questionnaire measures. Participants then complete their psychological therapy as offered by Southwark Psychological Therapies Service. Response to psychological therapy will be measured using standard IAPT outcome data, which are routinely collected at each appointment. This project addresses a need to understand treatment response rates in primary care psychological therapy services for those with depression and/or anxiety. Measurement of a range of predictor variables allows for the detection of bio

  15. Use of artificial neural networks to predict biological outcomes for patients receiving radical radiotherapy of the prostate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulliford, Sarah L.; Webb, Steve; Rowbottom, Carl G.; Corne, David W.; Dearnaley, David P.

    2004-01-01

    Background and purpose: This paper discusses the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting biological outcomes following prostate radiotherapy. A number of model-based methods have been developed to correlate the dose distributions calculated for a patient receiving radiotherapy and the radiobiological effect this will produce. Most widely used are the normal tissue complication probability and tumour control probability models. An alternative method for predicting specific examples of tumour control and normal tissue complications is to use an ANN. One of the advantages of this method is that there is no need for a priori information regarding the relationship between the data being correlated. Patients and methods: A set of retrospective clinical data from patients who received radical prostate radiotherapy was used to train ANNs to predict specific biological outcomes by learning the relationship between the treatment plan prescription, dose distribution and the corresponding biological effect. The dose and volume were included as a differential dose-volume histogram in order to provide a holistic description of the available data. Results: It was shown that the ANNs were able to predict biochemical control and specific bladder and rectum complications with sensitivity and specificity of above 55% when the outcomes were dichotomised. It was also possible to analyse information from the ANNs to investigate the effect of individual treatment parameters on the outcome. Conclusion: ANNs have been shown to learn something of the complex relationship between treatment parameters and outcome which, if developed further, may prove to be a useful tool in predicting biological outcomes

  16. Highly accurate prediction of food challenge outcome using routinely available clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DunnGalvin, Audrey; Daly, Deirdre; Cullinane, Claire; Stenke, Emily; Keeton, Diane; Erlewyn-Lajeunesse, Mich; Roberts, Graham C; Lucas, Jane; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B

    2011-03-01

    Serum specific IgE or skin prick tests are less useful at levels below accepted decision points. We sought to develop and validate a model to predict food challenge outcome by using routinely collected data in a diverse sample of children considered suitable for food challenge. The proto-algorithm was generated by using a limited data set from 1 service (phase 1). We retrospectively applied, evaluated, and modified the initial model by using an extended data set in another center (phase 2). Finally, we prospectively validated the model in a blind study in a further group of children undergoing food challenge for peanut, milk, or egg in the second center (phase 3). Allergen-specific models were developed for peanut, egg, and milk. Phase 1 (N = 429) identified 5 clinical factors associated with diagnosis of food allergy by food challenge. In phase 2 (N = 289), we examined the predictive ability of 6 clinical factors: skin prick test, serum specific IgE, total IgE minus serum specific IgE, symptoms, sex, and age. In phase 3 (N = 70), 97% of cases were accurately predicted as positive and 94% as negative. Our model showed an advantage in clinical prediction compared with serum specific IgE only, skin prick test only, and serum specific IgE and skin prick test (92% accuracy vs 57%, and 81%, respectively). Our findings have implications for the improved delivery of food allergy-related health care, enhanced food allergy-related quality of life, and economized use of health service resources by decreasing the number of food challenges performed. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of treatment outcomes to exercise in patients with nonremitted major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rethorst, Chad D; South, Charles C; Rush, A John; Greer, Tracy L; Trivedi, Madhukar H

    2017-12-01

    Only one-third of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) achieve remission with initial treatment. Consequently, current clinical practice relies on a "trial-and-error" approach to identify an effective treatment for each patient. The purpose of this report was to determine whether we could identify a set of clinical and biological parameters with potential clinical utility for prescription of exercise for treatment of MDD in a secondary analysis of the Treatment with Exercise Augmentation in Depression (TREAD) trial. Participants with nonremitted MDD were randomized to one of two exercise doses for 12 weeks. Participants were categorized as "remitters" (≤12 on the IDS-C), nonresponders (drop in IDS-C), or neither. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forests were used to evaluate 30 variables as predictors of both remission and nonresponse. Predictors were used to model treatment outcomes using logistic regression. Of the 122 participants, 36 were categorized as remitters (29.5%), 56 as nonresponders (45.9%), and 30 as neither (24.6%). Predictors of remission were higher levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and IL-1B, greater depressive symptom severity, and higher postexercise positive affect. Predictors of treatment nonresponse were low cardiorespiratory fitness, lower levels of IL-6 and BDNF, and lower postexercise positive affect. Models including these predictors resulted in predictive values greater than 70% (true predicted remitters/all predicted remitters) with specificities greater than 25% (true predicted remitters/all remitters). Results indicate feasibility in identifying patients who will either remit or not respond to exercise as a treatment for MDD utilizing a clinical decision model that incorporates multiple patient characteristics. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  19. Validation of the DRAGON Score in a Chinese Population to Predict Functional Outcome of Intravenous Thrombolysis-Treated Stroke Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinmiao; Liao, Xiaoling; Wang, Chunjuan; Liu, Liping; Wang, Chunxue; Zhao, Xingquan; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yilong; Wang, Yongjun

    2015-08-01

    The DRAGON score predicts functional outcome of ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis. Our aim was to evaluate its utility in a Chinese stroke population. Patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis were prospectively registered in the Thrombolysis Implementation and Monitor of acute ischemic Stroke in China. We excluded patients with basilar artery occlusion and missing data, leaving 970 eligible patients. We calculated the DRAGON score, and the clinical outcome was measured by the modified Rankin Scale at 3 months. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the C statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient. The C statistic was .73 (.70-.76) for good outcome and .75 (.70-.79) for miserable outcome. Proportions of patients with good outcome were 94%, 83%, 70%, and 0% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 score points, respectively. Proportions of patients with miserable outcome were 0%, 3%, 9%, and 50% for 0 to 1, 2, 3, and 8 to 10 points, respectively. There was high correlation between predicted and observed probability of 3-month favorable and miserable outcome in the external validation cohort (Pearson correlation coefficient, .98 and .98, respectively, both P DRAGON score showed good performance to predict functional outcome after tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment in the Chinese population. This study demonstrated the accuracy and usability of the DRAGON score in the Chinese population in daily practice. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  1. Predicting Extubation Outcome by Cough Peak Flow Measured Using a Built-in Ventilator Flow Meter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobert, Florent; Yonis, Hodane; Tapponnier, Romain; Fernandez, Raul; Labaune, Marie-Aude; Burle, Jean-François; Barbier, Jack; Vincent, Bernard; Cleyet, Maria; Richard, Jean-Christophe; Guérin, Claude

    2017-12-01

    Successful weaning from mechanical ventilation depends on the patient's ability to cough efficiently. Cough peak flow (CPF) could predict extubation success using a dedicated flow meter but required patient disconnection. We aimed to predict extubation outcome using an overall model, including cough performance assessed by a ventilator flow meter. This was a prospective observational study conducted from November 2014 to October 2015. Before and after a spontaneous breathing trial, subjects were encouraged to cough as strongly as possible before freezing the ventilator screen to assess CPF and tidal volume (V T ) in the preceding inspiration. Early extubation success rate was defined as the proportion of subjects not re-intubated 48 h after extubation. Diagnostic performance of CPF and V T was assessed by using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cut-off values for CPF and V T were defined according to median values and used to describe the performance of a predictive test combining them with risk factors of early extubation failure. Among 673 subjects admitted, 92 had a cough assessment before extubation. For the 81 subjects with early extubation success, the median CPF was -67.7 L/min, and median V T was 0.646 L. For the 11 subjects with early extubation failure, the median CPF was -57.3 L/min, and median V T was 0.448 L. Area under the curve was 0.61 (95% CI 0.37-0.83) for CPF and 0.64 (95% CI 0.42-0.84) for CPF/V T combined. After dichotomization (CPF 0.55 L), there was a synergistic effect to predict early extubation success ( P meter of an ICU ventilator was able to predict extubation success and to build a composite score to predict extubation failure. The results were close to that found in previous studies that used a dedicated flow meter. This could help to identify high-risk subjects to prevent extubation failure. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT02847221.). Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.

  2. Empirically derived pain-patient MMPI subgroups: prediction of treatment outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J E; Armentrout, D P; Parker, J C; Kivlahan, D R

    1986-02-01

    Fifty-seven male chronic pain patients admitted to an inpatient multimodal pain treatment program at a Midwestern Veterans Administration hospital completed the MMPI, Profile of Mood States (POMS), Tennessee Self-Concept Scale (TSCS), Rathus Assertiveness Schedule (RAS), activity diaries, and an extensive pain questionnaire. All patients were assessed both before and after treatment, and most also were assessed 2-5 months prior to treatment. No significant changes occurred during the baseline period, but significant improvements were evident at posttreatment on most variables: MMPI, POMS, TSCS, RAS, pain severity, sexual functioning, and activity diaries. MMPI subgroup membership, based on a hierarchical cluster analysis in a larger sample, was not predictive of differential treatment outcome. Possible reasons for comparable treatment gains among these subgroups, which previously have been shown to differ on many psychological and behavioral factors, are discussed.

  3. Gender identity outcomes in children with disorders/differences of sex development: Predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakula, Dana M; Mullins, Alexandria J; Sharkey, Christina M; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Mullins, Larry L; Wisniewski, Amy B

    2017-06-01

    Disorders/differences of sex development (DSD) comprise multiple congenital conditions in which chromosomal, gonadal, and/or anatomical sex are discordant. The prediction of future gender identity (i.e., self-identifying as male, female, or other) in children with DSD can be imprecise, and current knowledge about the development of gender identity in people with, and without DSD, is limited. However, sex of rearing is the strongest predictor of gender identity for the majority of individuals with various DSD conditions. When making decisions regarding sex of rearing biological factors (e.g., possession of a Y chromosome, degree and duration of pre- and postnatal androgen exposure, phenotypic presentation of the external genitalia, and fertility potential), social and cultural factors, as well as quality of life should be considered. Information on gender identity outcomes across a range of DSD diagnoses is presented to aid in sex of rearing assignment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Christian Aavang; Christensen, Anders; Nielsen, J K

    2013-01-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasmino......Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant...... and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0...

  5. The separate and interactive effects of drinking motives and social anxiety symptoms in predicting drinking outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Elise M; Barnett, Nancy

    2012-05-01

    Our goal was to test the separate and interactive effects of drinking motives and social anxiety symptoms in predicting drinking-related consumption and problems. Participants (N=730; 59.7% female) were undergraduate college students who completed measures of social anxiety symptoms, drinking motives, alcohol consumption, and drinking problems. Greater social anxiety symptoms were significantly associated with less alcohol consumption, and there was some evidence that greater social anxiety symptoms were also associated with greater alcohol-relevant problems. Significant interactions between social anxiety and motives indicated that a) alcohol use was most pronounced for individuals high in enhancement motives and low in social anxiety symptoms; and b) among participants low in coping motives, drinking problems were greater for individuals high (vs. low) in social anxiety symptoms. More fully identifying the individual difference factors that link social anxiety symptoms with drinking outcomes is important for informing prevention and intervention approaches. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Predictive factors for final outcome of severely traumatized eyes with no light perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agrawal Rupesh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An eye injury that causes no light perception (NLP typically carries an unfavorable prognosis, and NLP because of trauma is a common indication for enucleation. With advances in vitreoretinal surgical techniques, however, the indication for enucleation is no longer determined by posttrauma NLP vision alone. There are limited studies in the literature to analyse the outcome of NLP eyes following open globe injury. The current study was aimed to evaluate the outcome of surgical repair of severely traumatized eyes with no light perception vision as preoperative visual acuity. Secondary objective was to possibly predict the factors affecting the final vision outcome in this eyes. Methods Retrospective case analysis of patients with surgical repair of open globe injury over last ten years at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore. Results Out of one hundred and seventy two eyes with open globe injury 27 (15.7% eyes had no light perception (NLP. After surgical repair, final visual acuity remained NLP in 18 (66.7% eyes. Final vision improved to Light perception/ Hand movement (LP/HM in 2(7.4% eyes, 1/200 to 19/200(11.1% in 3 eyes and 20/50-20/200(14.8% in 4 eyes. The median follow up was 18.9 months (range: 4–60 months. The factors contributing to poor postoperative outcome were presence of RAPD (p = 0.014, wound extending into zone III (p = 0.023 and associated vitreoretinal trauma (p = 0.008. Conclusions One third of eyes had ambulatory vision or better though two third of eyes still remained NLP. Pre-operative visual acuity of NLP should not be an indication for primary enucleation or evisceration for severely traumatized eyes. Presence of afferent papillary defect, wound extending posterior to rectus insertion and associated vitreoretinal trauma can adversely affect the outcome in severely traumatized eyes with NLP. Timely intervention and state of art surgery may restore useful vision in severely

  7. Predictability of motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging in patients with cerebral infarct

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Yong Hyun [Yeungnam College of Science and Technology, Department of Physical Therapy, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Jeoung, Yong Jae [Yeungnam University, Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jun [Yeungnam University, Department of Neurology, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Son, Su Min; Jang, Sung Ho [Yeungnam University 317-1, Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Saeyoon [Yeungnam University, Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chulseung [Medical Devices Clinical Trial Center of Yeungnam University Hospital, Taegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-07-15

    Predictability of diffusion tensor imaging tractography (DTT) for motor outcome can differ according to the time of DTT. We attempted to compare the predictability for motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) by analyzing the corticospinal tract (CST) integrity on DTT in patients with corona radiata (CR) infarct. Seventy-one consecutive hemiparetic patients with CR infarct were recruited. Motor function of the affected extremities was measured twice: at onset and at 6 months from onset. According to the time of DTI, patients were classified into two groups: the early scanning group (ES group) within 14 days since stroke onset; and the late scanning group (LS group) 15-28 days. Motor outcome was compared with the CST integrity on DTT. Motor prognosis was predicted from scan time of DTI and the CST integrity on DTT in the logistic regression model. According to separate regression analysis, the CST integrity of the late group was found to predict MI score (OR = 14.000, 95% CI = 3.194-61.362, p < 0.05), whereas the CST integrity of the early group was not found to predict MI score. In terms of both positive and negative predictabilities, we found that predictability of DTT for motor outcome was better in patients who were scanned later (15-28 days after onset) than in patients who were scanned earlier (1-14 days after onset). (orig.)

  8. Predictability of motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging in patients with cerebral infarct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Yong Hyun; Jeoung, Yong Jae; Lee, Jun; Son, Su Min; Jang, Sung Ho; Kim, Saeyoon; Kim, Chulseung

    2012-01-01

    Predictability of diffusion tensor imaging tractography (DTT) for motor outcome can differ according to the time of DTT. We attempted to compare the predictability for motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) by analyzing the corticospinal tract (CST) integrity on DTT in patients with corona radiata (CR) infarct. Seventy-one consecutive hemiparetic patients with CR infarct were recruited. Motor function of the affected extremities was measured twice: at onset and at 6 months from onset. According to the time of DTI, patients were classified into two groups: the early scanning group (ES group) within 14 days since stroke onset; and the late scanning group (LS group) 15-28 days. Motor outcome was compared with the CST integrity on DTT. Motor prognosis was predicted from scan time of DTI and the CST integrity on DTT in the logistic regression model. According to separate regression analysis, the CST integrity of the late group was found to predict MI score (OR = 14.000, 95% CI = 3.194-61.362, p < 0.05), whereas the CST integrity of the early group was not found to predict MI score. In terms of both positive and negative predictabilities, we found that predictability of DTT for motor outcome was better in patients who were scanned later (15-28 days after onset) than in patients who were scanned earlier (1-14 days after onset). (orig.)

  9. Predicting risk and outcomes for frail older adults: an umbrella review of frailty screening tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apóstolo, João; Cooke, Richard; Bobrowicz-Campos, Elzbieta; Santana, Silvina; Marcucci, Maura; Cano, Antonio; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam; Germini, Federico; Holland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background A scoping search identified systematic reviews on diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability of frailty measures in older adults. In most cases, research was confined to specific assessment measures related to a specific clinical model. Objectives To summarize the best available evidence from systematic reviews in relation to reliability, validity, diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability of frailty measures in older adults. Inclusion criteria Population Older adults aged 60 years or older recruited from community, primary care, long-term residential care and hospitals. Index test Available frailty measures in older adults. Reference test Cardiovascular Health Study phenotype model, the Canadian Study of Health and Aging cumulative deficit model, Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment or other reference tests. Diagnosis of interest Frailty defined as an age-related state of decreased physiological reserves characterized by an increased risk of poor clinical outcomes. Types of studies Quantitative systematic reviews. Search strategy A three-step search strategy was utilized to find systematic reviews, available in English, published between January 2001 and October 2015. Methodological quality Assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for systematic reviews and research synthesis. Data extraction Two independent reviewers extracted data using the standardized data extraction tool designed for umbrella reviews. Data synthesis Data were only presented in a narrative form due to the heterogeneity of included reviews. Results Five reviews with a total of 227,381 participants were included in this umbrella review. Two reviews focused on reliability, validity and diagnostic accuracy; two examined predictive ability for adverse health outcomes; and one investigated validity, diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability. In total, 26 questionnaires and brief assessments and eight frailty

  10. Fitness plus American Society of Anesthesiologists grade improve outcome prediction after endovascular aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boult, Margaret; Cowled, Prue; Barnes, Mary; Fitridge, Robert A

    2017-09-01

    Although the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade was established for statistical purposes, it is often used prognostically. However, older patients undergoing elective surgery are typically ASA III, which limits patient stratification. We look at the prognostic effect on early complications and survival of using ASA and self-reported physical fitness to stratify patients undergoing endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms. Data were extracted from a trial database. All patients were assigned a fitness level (A (fit) or B (unfit)) based on their self-reported ability to walk briskly for 1 km or climb two flights of stairs. Fitness was used to stratify ASA III patients, with fitter patients assigned ASA IIIA and less fit patients ASA IIIB. Outcomes assessed included survival, reinterventions, endoleak, all early and late complications and early operative complications. A combined ASA/fitness scale (II, IIIA, IIIB and IV) correlated with 1- and 3-year survival (1-year P = 0.001, 3-year P = 0.001) and early and late complications (P = 0.001 and P = 0.05). On its own, ASA predicted early complications (P = 0.0004) and survival (1-year P = 0.01, 3-year P = 0.01). Fitness alone was predictive for survival (1-year P = 0.001, 3-year P = 0.001) and late complications (P = 0.009). This study shows that even a superficial assessment of fitness is reflected in surgical outcomes, with fitter ASA III patients showing survival patterns similar to ASA II patients. Physicians should be alert to differences in fitness between patients in the ASA III group, despite similarities based on preexisting severe systemic disease. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  11. [Acute kidney injury after pediatric cardiac surgery: risk factors and outcomes. Proposal for a predictive model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Bárbara; Laranjo, Sérgio; Gomes, Inês; Freitas, Isabel; Trigo, Conceição; Fragata, Isabel; Fragata, José; Pinto, Fátima

    2016-02-01

    To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day-18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients' age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  12. Intraindividual variability in reaction time predicts cognitive outcomes 5 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielak, Allison A M; Hultsch, David F; Strauss, Esther; Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael A

    2010-11-01

    Building on results suggesting that intraindividual variability in reaction time (inconsistency) is highly sensitive to even subtle changes in cognitive ability, this study addressed the capacity of inconsistency to predict change in cognitive status (i.e., cognitive impairment, no dementia [CIND] classification) and attrition 5 years later. Two hundred twelve community-dwelling older adults, initially aged 64-92 years, remained in the study after 5 years. Inconsistency was calculated from baseline reaction time performance. Participants were assigned to groups on the basis of their fluctuations in CIND classification over time. Logistic and Cox regressions were used. Baseline inconsistency significantly distinguished among those who remained or transitioned into CIND over the 5 years and those who were consistently intact (e.g., stable intact vs. stable CIND, Wald (1) = 7.91, p < .01, Exp(β) = 1.49). Average level of inconsistency over time was also predictive of study attrition, for example, Wald (1) = 11.31, p < .01, Exp(β) = 1.24. For both outcomes, greater inconsistency was associated with a greater likelihood of being in a maladaptive group 5 years later. Variability based on moderately cognitively challenging tasks appeared to be particularly sensitive to longitudinal changes in cognitive ability. Mean rate of responding was a comparable predictor of change in most instances, but individuals were at greater relative risk of being in a maladaptive outcome group if they were more inconsistent rather than if they were slower in responding. Implications for the potential utility of intraindividual variability in reaction time as an early marker of cognitive decline are discussed. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

  13. Diaphragm and Lung Ultrasound to Predict Weaning Outcome: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llamas-Álvarez, Ana M; Tenza-Lozano, Eva M; Latour-Pérez, Jaime

    2017-12-01

    Deciding the optimal timing for extubation in patients who are mechanically ventilated can be challenging, and traditional weaning predictor tools are not very accurate. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of lung and diaphragm ultrasound for predicting weaning outcomes in critically ill adults. MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, LILACS, Teseo, Tesis Doctorales en Red, and OpenGrey were searched, and the bibliographies of relevant studies were reviewed. Two researchers independently selected studies that met the inclusion criteria and assessed study quality in accordance with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. The summary receiver-operating characteristic curve and pooled diagnostic OR (DOR) were estimated by using a bivariate random effects analysis. Sources of heterogeneity were explored by using predefined subgroup analyses and bivariate meta-regression. Nineteen studies involving 1,071 people were included in the study. For diaphragm thickening fraction, the area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.87, and DOR was 21 (95% CI, 11-40). Regarding diaphragmatic excursion, pooled sensitivity was 75% (95% CI, 65-85); pooled specificity, 75% (95% CI, 60-85); and DOR, 10 (95% CI, 4-24). For lung ultrasound, the area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.77, and DOR was 38 (95% CI, 7-198). Based on bivariate meta-regression analysis, a significantly higher specificity for diaphragm thickening fraction and higher sensitivity for diaphragmatic excursion was detected in studies with applicability concerns. Lung and diaphragm ultrasound can help predict weaning outcome, but its accuracy may vary depending on the patient subpopulation. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A SIMPLE FRAILTY QUESTIONNAIRE (FRAIL) PREDICTS OUTCOMES IN MIDDLE AGED AFRICAN AMERICANS

    Science.gov (United States)

    MORLEY, J.E.; MALMSTROM, T.K.; MILLER, D.K.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To validate the FRAIL scale. Design Longitudinal study. Setting Community. Participants Representative sample of African Americans age 49 to 65 years at onset of study. Measurements The 5-item FRAIL scale (Fatigue, Resistance, Ambulation, Illnesses, & Loss of Weight), at baseline and activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), mortality, short physical performance battery (SPPB), gait speed, one-leg stand, grip strength and injurious falls at baseline and 9 years. Blood tests for CRP, SIL6R, STNFR1, STNFR2 and 25 (OH) vitamin D at baseline. Results Cross-sectionally the FRAIL scale correlated significantly with IADL difficulties, SPPB, grip strength and one-leg stand among participants with no baseline ADL difficulties (N=703) and those outcomes plus gait speed in those with no baseline ADL dependencies (N=883). TNFR1 was increased in pre-frail and frail subjects and CRP in some subgroups. Longitudinally (N=423 with no baseline ADL difficulties or N=528 with no baseline ADL dependencies), and adjusted for the baseline value for each outcome, being pre-frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, worse one-leg stand scores, and mortality in both groups, plus IADL difficulties in the dependence-excluded group. Being frail at baseline significantly predicted future ADL difficulties, IADL difficulties, and mortality in both groups, plus worse SPPB in the dependence-excluded group. Conclusion This study has validated the FRAIL scale in a late middle-aged African American population. This simple 5-question scale is an excellent screening test for clinicians to identify frail persons at risk of developing disability as well as decline in health functioning and mortality. PMID:22836700

  15. Nonoperative management of perforated appendicitis in children: can CT predict outcome?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, Terry; Whyte, Christine; Harris, Burton; Borzykowski, Ross; Han, Bokyung; Blitman, Netta

    2007-01-01

    The optimal treatment of perforated appendicitis remains controversial, but there is a trend toward nonoperative management. CT scanning might be helpful in determining which patients could benefit from this treatment option. To determine the value of CT imaging in predicting clinical success or failure in children with nonoperative management of perforated appendicitis. Admission CT scans of 34 children with perforated appendicitis treated nonoperatively between January 2003 and June 2006 were retrospectively reviewed. All children were given intravenous antibiotics. Clinical outcome was correlated with imaging findings including the maximal area, number and complexity of collections, presence of an appendicolith or extraluminal air, and extent of intra-abdominal disease outside the right lower quadrant. Patients with an accessible simple collection were drained if their clinical condition did not improve. Successful nonoperative management was achieved in 20 patients; 14 patients failed nonoperative therapy. The presence of collections in three or more sectors (defined as the pelvis and four abdominal quadrants) correlated strongly with clinical failure (P < 0.05), while there was no correlation found between clinical outcome and the presence of an appendicolith, extraluminal air, distant ascites, and collection size or complexity. In the nonoperative management of children with perforated appendicitis, admission CT findings demonstrating disease beyond the right lower quadrant correlate with treatment failure. (orig.)

  16. Angiographically Negative Acute Arterial Upper and Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Incidence, Predictive Factors, and Clinical Outcomes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jin Hyoung; Shin, Ji Hoon; Yoon, Hyun Ki; Chae, Eun Young; Myung, Seung Jae; Ko, Gi Young; Gwon, Dong Il; Sung, Kyu Bo

    2009-01-01

    To evaluate the incidence, predictive factors, and clinical outcomes of angiographically negative acute arterial upper and lower gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. From 2001 to 2008, 143 consecutive patients who underwent an angiography for acute arterial upper or lower GI bleeding were examined. The angiographies revealed a negative bleeding focus in 75 of 143 (52%) patients. The incidence of an angiographically negative outcome was significantly higher in patients with a stable hemodynamic status (p < 0.001), or in patients with lower GI bleeding (p = 0.032). A follow-up of the 75 patients (range: 0-72 months, mean: 8 ± 14 months) revealed that 60 of the 75 (80%) patients with a negative bleeding focus underwent conservative management only, and acute bleeding was controlled without rebleeding. Three of the 75 (4%) patients underwent exploratory surgery due to prolonged bleeding; however, no bleeding focus was detected. Rebleeding occurred in 12 of 75 (16%) patients. Of these, six patients experienced massive rebleeding and died of disseminated intravascular coagulation within four to nine hours after the rebleeding episode. Four of the 16 patients underwent a repeat angiography and the two remaining patients underwent a surgical intervention to control the bleeding. Angiographically negative results are relatively common in patients with acute GI bleeding, especially in patients with a stable hemodynamic status or lower GI bleeding. Most patients with a negative bleeding focus have experienced spontaneous resolution of their condition

  17. Neurologic outcome of urea cycle disorder liver transplant recipients may be predicted by pretransplant neurological imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, Scott M; Campbell, Kathleen M; Kukreja, Marcia; Kohli, Rohit

    2015-08-01

    Liver transplantation treats the hepatic affectation of UCDs; however, irreversible neurologic damage pretransplant is difficult to assess providing transplant teams with ethical dilemmas for liver transplantation. The purpose of our study was to determine whether pretransplant neuroimaging can predict developmental outcomes post-liver-transplant in children with UCDs. Patients undergoing liver transplantation for UCDs at Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center between 2002 and 2012 were identified. Neurologic assessments prior to and after transplantation were categorized into mild, moderate, or severe disability. Neuroimaging data were categorized into mild, moderate, or severe by a single pediatric neuroradiologist. Fifteen patients were identified of whom eight had neuroimaging prior to transplantation. Of the eight patients that had neuroimaging, four were categorized as severe, one moderate, and three no-to-mild delay. All four patients whose imaging was severe were found to have moderate-to-severe neurologic delay. Of the three patients with no-to-mild changes on neuroimaging two of three were found to have no-to-mild delay on developmental assessments after transplantation. Neuroimaging may be a helpful tool in determining developmental prognosis and outcomes post-liver-transplantation for UCDs. Further studies maybe needed to validate our preliminary findings. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Predictive factors for pregnancy outcome following controlled ovarian stimulation and intrauterine insemination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildrim, G.; Turkgeldi, L.S.; Koroglu, N.; Mervetalmac, A.

    2017-01-01

    To establish predictive factors for positive pregnancy outcome in cases of controlled ovarian stimulation and intrauterine insemination. Methods: The retrospective study was conducted at Kanuni Sultan Suleyman Training and Research Hospital and comprised subjects having undergone ovulation induction cycles and intrauterine insemination between June 2010 and June 2015. Data was analysed in terms of various parameters affecting clinical pregnancy rates. SPSS 23 was used for statistical analysis. Results: There were 475 patients having undergone a total of 923 cycles. Pregnancy was established in 133(28%) patients. Univariate analysis of biological/clinical variables revealed the presence of secondary infertility, high endometrial thickness, antral follicle number, post wash total motile sperm count and midluteal progesterone levels following intrauterine insemination to be associated with positive pregnancy outcomes (p<0.05 each). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to establish factors that affected the pregnancy rate. The aetiology and type of infertility and high midluteal progesterone levels following intrauterine insemination were found to be statistically significant predictors of pregnancy (p<0.05 each). Conclusion: The best chance of pregnancy was found in cases with anovulatory infertility, a history of prior pregnancy, and high midluteal progesterone levels following treatment with gonadotrophins and intrauterine insemination. (author)

  19. The preoperative manometric pattern predicts the outcome of surgical treatment for esophageal achalasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvador, Renato; Costantini, Mario; Zaninotto, Giovanni; Morbin, Tiziana; Rizzetto, Christian; Zanatta, Lisa; Ceolin, Martina; Finotti, Elena; Nicoletti, Loredana; Da Dalt, Gianfranco; Cavallin, Francesco; Ancona, Ermanno

    2010-11-01

    A new manometric classification of esophageal achalasia has recently been proposed that also suggests a correlation with the final outcome of treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate this hypothesis in a large group of achalasia patients undergoing laparoscopic Heller-Dor myotomy. We evaluated 246 consecutive achalasia patients who underwent surgery as their first treatment from 2001 to 2009. Patients with sigmoid-shaped esophagus were excluded. Symptoms were scored and barium swallow X-ray, endoscopy, and esophageal manometry were performed before and again at 6 months after surgery. Patients were divided into three groups: (I) no distal esophageal pressurization (contraction wave amplitude 30 mmHg); and (III) rapidly propagating pressurization attributable to spastic contractions. Treatment failure was defined as a postoperative symptom score greater than the 10th percentile of the preoperative score (i.e., >7). Type III achalasia coincided with a longer overall lower esophageal sphincter (LES) length, a lower symptom score, and a smaller esophageal diameter. Treatment failure rates differed significantly in the three groups: I = 14.6% (14/96), II = 4.7% (6/127), and III = 30.4% (7/23; p = 0.0007). At univariate analysis, the manometric pattern, a low LES resting pressure, and a high chest pain score were the only factors predicting treatment failure. At multivariate analysis, the manometric pattern and a LES resting pressure achalasia subtypes: patients with panesophageal pressurization have the best outcome after laparoscopic Heller-Dor myotomy.

  20. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  1. Promoting parent academic expectations predicts improved school outcomes for low-income children entering kindergarten.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin-Presnal, John E; Bierman, Karen L

    2017-06-01

    This study explored patterns of change in the REDI (Research-based Developmentally Informed) Parent program (REDI-P), designed to help parents support child learning at the transition into kindergarten. Participants were 200 prekindergarten children attending Head Start (55% European-American, 26% African American, 19% Latino, 56% male, M age =4.45years, SD=0.29) and their primary caregivers, who were randomized to a 16-session home-visiting intervention (REDI-P) or a control group. Extending beyond a prior study documenting intervention effects on parenting behaviors and child kindergarten outcomes, this study assessed the impact of REDI-P on parent academic expectations, and then explored the degree to which intervention gains in three areas of parenting (parent-child interactive reading, parent-child conversations, parent academic expectations) predicted child outcomes in kindergarten (controlling for baseline values and a set of child and family characteristics). Results showed that REDI-P promoted significant gains in parent academic expectations, which in turn mediated intervention gains in child emergent literacy skills and self-directed learning. Results suggest a need to attend to the beliefs parents hold about their child's academic potential, as well as their behavioral support for child learning, when designing interventions to enhance the school success of children in low-income families. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Angiographically Negative Acute Arterial Upper and Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Incidence, Predictive Factors, and Clinical Outcomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jin Hyoung; Shin, Ji Hoon; Yoon, Hyun Ki; Chae, Eun Young; Myung, Seung Jae; Ko, Gi Young; Gwon, Dong Il; Sung, Kyu Bo [Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-08-15

    To evaluate the incidence, predictive factors, and clinical outcomes of angiographically negative acute arterial upper and lower gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. From 2001 to 2008, 143 consecutive patients who underwent an angiography for acute arterial upper or lower GI bleeding were examined. The angiographies revealed a negative bleeding focus in 75 of 143 (52%) patients. The incidence of an angiographically negative outcome was significantly higher in patients with a stable hemodynamic status (p < 0.001), or in patients with lower GI bleeding (p = 0.032). A follow-up of the 75 patients (range: 0-72 months, mean: 8 {+-} 14 months) revealed that 60 of the 75 (80%) patients with a negative bleeding focus underwent conservative management only, and acute bleeding was controlled without rebleeding. Three of the 75 (4%) patients underwent exploratory surgery due to prolonged bleeding; however, no bleeding focus was detected. Rebleeding occurred in 12 of 75 (16%) patients. Of these, six patients experienced massive rebleeding and died of disseminated intravascular coagulation within four to nine hours after the rebleeding episode. Four of the 16 patients underwent a repeat angiography and the two remaining patients underwent a surgical intervention to control the bleeding. Angiographically negative results are relatively common in patients with acute GI bleeding, especially in patients with a stable hemodynamic status or lower GI bleeding. Most patients with a negative bleeding focus have experienced spontaneous resolution of their condition.

  3. EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox)-overview and outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-01-01

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and 'omics' technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of 'omics' and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that 'omics' technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated 'omics' analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  4. Lens subluxation grading system: predictive value for ectopia lentis surgical outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Waiswol

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To present a classification system to grade ectopia lentis and to assess its usefulness as a predictor for surgical outcomes. Methods: Fifty-one eyes of 28 patients with either simple (19 patients or Marfan syndrome-associated ectopia lentis (nine patients with variable degrees of subluxation were operated on. Lens subluxation intensity was graded according to the lens subluxation grading system (LSGS from grade 1 (lens on the whole pupillary area up to grade 4 (lens absent from the pupillary area. Thirty eyes underwent cataract extraction (“dry” aspiration with endocapsular ring and in-the-bag intraocular lens (IOL implantation. Twenty-one eyes underwent cataract extraction (“dry” aspiration with scleral fixation of the IOL. The predictive value of the LSGS was assessed by analyzing the post-operative outcomes, including visual acuity (VA, endothelial cell loss, and complications for each grade on the grading system. Rresults: Patients were classified into grade 1 (19.6%, grade 2 (51% and grade 3 (29.4%. Post-operative VA was lower for eyes with larger degrees of subluxation. The higher the subluxation grade, the higher the endothelial cell loss, as well as, the frequency of vitreous loss and surgical time. Higher subluxation grades prevented optimal surgical outcomes with endocapsular ring and in-the-bag IOL implantation. Cconclusions: The LSGS provides an estimate of the surgical success of ectopia lentis. Adequate standardization of lens subluxation is crucial for understanding studies dealing with the surgical correction of this disorder.

  5. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  6. Color and behavior differently predict competitive outcomes for divergent stickleback color morphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehto, Whitley R; Lierheimer, V Faith

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Our knowledge of how male competition contributes to speciation is dominated by investigations of competition between within-species morphs or closely related species that differ in conspicuous traits expressed during the breeding season (e.g. color, song). In such studies, it is important to consider the manner in which putatively sexually selected traits influence the outcome of competitive interactions within and between types because these traits can communicate information about competitor quality and may not be utilized by homotypic and heterotypic receivers in the same way. We studied the roles of breeding color and aggressive behaviors in competition within and between two divergent threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus color types. Our previous work in this system showed that the switch from red to black breeding coloration is associated with changes in male competition biases. Here, we find that red and black males also use different currencies in competition. Winners of both color types performed more aggressive behaviors than losers, regardless of whether the competitor was of the same or opposite color type. But breeding color differently predicted competitive outcomes for red and black males. Males who were redder at the start of competition were more likely to win when paired with homotypic competitors and less likely to win when paired with heterotypic competitors. In contrast, black color, though expressed in the breeding season and condition dependent, was unrelated to competitive outcomes. Placing questions about the role of male competition in speciation in a sexual signal evolution framework may provide insight into the “why and how” of aggression biases and asymmetries in competitive ability between closely related morphs and species. PMID:29492044

  7. Abdominal compartment syndrome in trauma patients: New insights for predicting outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisha W Shaheen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS is associated with high morbidity and mortality among trauma patients. Several clinical and laboratory findings have been suggested as markers for ACS, and these may point to different types of ACS and complications. Aims: This study aims to identify the strength of association of clinical and laboratory variables with specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. Settings and Design: A 5-year retrospective chart review was conducted at three Level I Trauma Centers in the City of Chicago, IL, USA. Subjects and Methods:A complete set of demographic, pre-, intra- and post-operative variables were collected from 28 patient charts. Statistical Analysis:Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to determine the strength of association between 29 studied variables and eight end outcomes. Results: Thirty-day mortality was associated strongly with the finding of an initial intra-abdominal pressure >20 mmHg and moderately with blunt injury mechanism. A lactic acid >5 mmol/L on admission was moderately associated with increased blood transfusion requirements and with acute renal failure during the hospitalization. Developing ACS within 48 h of admission was moderately associated with increased length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU, more ventilator days, and longer hospital stay. Initial operative intervention lasting more than 2 h was moderately associated with risk of developing multi-organ failure. Hemoglobin level 7 days were moderately associated with a disposition to long-term support facility. Conclusions: Clinical and lab variables can predict specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. These findings may be used to guide patient management, improve resource utilization, and build capacity within trauma centers.

  8. Salivary Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies 2 and Lactobacillus casei levels predict pregnancy outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasanayake, Ananda P; Li, Yihong; Wiener, Howard; Ruby, John D; Lee, Men-Jean

    2005-02-01

    Gravida's poor periodontal health is emerging as a modifiable independent risk factor for preterm delivery and low birth weight. To test the hypothesis that oral bacteria other than periodontal pathogens are also associated with pregnancy outcomes, specific oral bacterial levels measured during pregnancy were evaluated in relation to gestational age and birth weight while controlling for demographic, medical, and dental variables. The study population consisted of 297 predominantly African- American women who were pregnant for the first time. The salivary bacterial levels evaluated were Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus sobrinus, Streptococcus sanguinus, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus casei, Actinomyces naeslundii genospecies (gsp) 1 and 2, total streptococci, and total cultivable organisms. For 1 unit increase in log(10) A. naeslundii gsp 2 levels, there was a 60 gm decrease in birth weight (beta = -59.7 g; SE = 29.1; P = 0.04), and a 0.17 week decrease in gestational age (beta = -0.17 wk; SE = 0.09; P = 0.05). In contrast, per 1 unit increase in log(10) L. casei levels, there was a 42 gm increase in birth weight (beta = 42.2 g; SE = 19.3; P = 0.03), and a 0.13 week increase in gestational age (beta = 0.13 week; SE = 0.06; P = 0.04). We conclude that other oral bacterial species can also be related to pregnancy outcomes in addition to previously reported periodontal pathogens. These organism levels may not only predict poor pregnancy outcomes, but also be used as modifiable risk factors in reducing prematurity and low birth weight.

  9. Athletic Pubalgia in Females: Predictive Value of MRI in Outcomes of Endoscopic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matikainen, Markku; Hermunen, Heikki; Paajanen, Hannu

    2017-08-01

    Athletic pubalgia is typically associated with male athletes participating in contact sports and less frequently with females. Endoscopic surgery may fully treat the patient with athletic pubalgia. To perform an outcomes analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic surgery in female patients with athletic pubalgia. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Fifteen physically active female patients (mean age, 37 years) with athletic pubalgia were treated surgically via placement of total extraperitoneal endoscopic polypropylene mesh behind the injured groin area. The presence of preoperative bone marrow edema (BME) at the pubic symphysis seen on MRI was graded from 0 to 3 and correlated with pain scores after surgery. The outcome measures were pre- and postoperative pain scores and recovery to daily activity between 1 and 12 months after surgery. Results were compared with previously published scores from male athletes (n = 30). With the exception of lower body mass index, the females with (n = 8) and without (n = 7) pubic BME had similar patient characteristics to the corresponding males. Mean inguinal pain scores (0-10) before surgical treatment were greater in females than males (during exercise, 7.8 ± 1.1 vs 6.9 ± 1.1; P = .0131). One month after surgery, mean pain scores for females were still greater compared with males (2.9 ± 1.7 vs 1.3 ± 1.6; P = .0034). Compared with female athletes with normal MRI, pubic BME was related to increased mean preoperative pain scores (8.13 ± 0.99 vs 6.43 ± 1.2; P = .0122). After 1 year, surgical outcomes were excellent or good in 47% of women. Endoscopic surgery was helpful in half of the females with athletic pubalgia in this study. The presence of pubic BME may predict slightly prolonged recovery from surgery.

  10. Severity scoring in the critically ill: part 2: maximizing value from outcome prediction scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslow, Michael J; Badawi, Omar

    2012-02-01

    Part 2 of this review of ICU scoring systems examines how scoring system data should be used to assess ICU performance. There often are two different consumers of these data: lCU clinicians and quality leaders who seek to identify opportunities to improve quality of care and operational efficiency, and regulators, payors, and consumers who want to compare performance across facilities. The former need to know how to garner maximal insight into their care practices; this includes understanding how length of stay (LOS) relates to quality, analyzing the behavior of different subpopulations, and following trends over time. Segregating patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk populations is especially helpful, because care issues and outcomes may differ across this severity continuum. Also, LOS behaves paradoxically in high-risk patients (survivors often have longer LOS than nonsurvivors); failure to examine this subgroup separately can penalize ICUs with superior outcomes. Consumers of benchmarking data often focus on a single score, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). However, simple SMRs are disproportionately affected by outcomes in high-risk patients, and differences in population composition, even when performance is otherwise identical, can result in different SMRs. Future benchmarking must incorporate strategies to adjust for differences in population composition and report performance separately for low-, medium- and high-acuity patients. Moreover, because many ICUs lack the resources to care for high-acuity patients (predicted mortality >50%), decisions about where patients should receive care must consider both ICU performance scores and their capacity to care for different types of patients.

  11. Maintenance treatment with azathioprine in ulcerative colitis: outcome and predictive factors after drug withdrawal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassinotti, Andrea; Actis, Giovanni C; Duca, Piergiorgio; Massari, Alessandro; Colombo, Elisabetta; Gai, Elisa; Annese, Vito; D'Albasio, Giuseppe; Manes, Gianpiero; Travis, Simon; Porro, Gabriele Bianchi; Ardizzone, Sandro

    2009-11-01

    Whether the duration of maintenance treatment with azathioprine (AZA) affects the outcome of ulcerative colitis (UC) is unclear. We investigated clinical outcomes and any predictive factors after withdrawal of AZA in UC. In this multicenter observational retrospective study, 127 Italian UC patients, who were in steroid-free remission at the time of withdrawal of AZA, were followed-up for a median of 55 months or until relapse. The frequency of clinical relapse or colectomy after AZA withdrawal was analyzed according to demographic, clinical, and endoscopic variables. After drug withdrawal, a third of the patients relapsed within 12 months, half within 2 years and two-thirds within 5 years. After multivariable analysis, predictors of relapse after drug withdrawal were lack of sustained remission during AZA maintenance (hazard ratio, HR 2.350, confidence interval, CI 95% 1.434-3.852; P=0.001), extensive colitis (HR 1.793, CI 95% 1.064-3.023, P=0.028 vs. left-sided colitis; HR 2.024, CI 95% 1.103-3.717, P=0.023 vs. distal colitis), and treatment duration, with short treatments (3-6 months) more disadvantaged than >48-month treatments (HR 2.783, CI 95% 1.267-6.114, P=0.008). Concomitant aminosalicylates were the only predictors of sustained remission during AZA therapy (P=0.009). The overall colectomy rate was 10%. Predictors of colectomy were drug-related toxicity as the cause of AZA withdrawal (P=0.041), no post-AZA drug therapy (P=0.031), and treatment duration (P<0.0005). Discontinuation of AZA while UC is in remission is associated with a high relapse rate. Disease extent, lack of sustained remission during AZA, and discontinuation due to toxicity could stratify relapse risk. Concomitant aminosalicylates were advantageous. Prospective randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm whether treatment duration is inversely associated with outcome.

  12. Multidetector-CT angiography in pulmonary embolism - can image parameters predict clinical outcome?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heyer, Christoph M.; Lemburg, Stefan P.; Nicolas, Volkmar; Roggenland, Daniela [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Universitaetsklinikum Bergmannsheil GmbH, Ruhr-University of Bochum, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Interventional Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Bochum (Germany); Knoop, Heiko [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Universitaetsklinikum Bergmannsheil GmbH, Medical Clinic III - Pneumology, Allergology, and Sleep Medicine, Bochum (Germany); Holland-Letz, Tim [Ruhr-University of Bochum, Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Bochum (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    To assess if pulmonary CT angiography (CTA) can predict outcome in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Retrospective analysis of CTA studies of patients with PE and documentation of pulmonary artery (PA)/aorta ratio, right ventricular (RV)/left ventricular (LV) ratio, superior vena cava (SVC) diameter, pulmonary obstruction index (POI), ventricular septal bowing (VSB), venous contrast reflux (VCR), pulmonary infarction and pleural effusion. Furthermore, duration of total hospital stay, necessity for/duration of ICU therapy, necessity for mechanical ventilation and mortality were recorded. Comparison was performed by logistic/linear regression analysis with significance at 5%. 152 patients were investigated. Mean duration of hospital stay was 21 {+-} 24 days. 66 patients were admitted to the ICU; 20 received mechanical ventilation. Mean duration of ICU therapy was 3 {+-} 8 days. Mortality rate was 8%. Significant positive associations of POI, VCR and pulmonary infarction with necessity for ICU therapy were shown. VCR was significantly associated with necessity for mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU treatment. Pleural effusions were significantly associated with duration of total hospital stay whereas the RV/LV ratio correlated with mortality. Selected CTA findings showed significant associations with the clinical course of PE and may thus be used as predictive parameters. (orig.)

  13. Radiation-induced brain structural and functional abnormalities in presymptomatic phase and outcome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Zhongxiang; Zhang, Han; Lv, Xiao-Fei; Xie, Fei; Liu, Lizhi; Qiu, Shijun; Li, Li; Shen, Dinggang

    2018-01-01

    Radiation therapy, a major method of treatment for brain cancer, may cause severe brain injuries after many years. We used a rare and unique cohort of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with normal-appearing brains to study possible early irradiation injury in its presymptomatic phase before severe, irreversible necrosis happens. The aim is to detect any structural or functional imaging biomarker that is sensitive to early irradiation injury, and to understand the recovery and progression of irradiation injury that can shed light on outcome prediction for early clinical intervention. We found an acute increase in local brain activity that is followed by extensive reductions in such activity in the temporal lobe and significant loss of functional connectivity in a distributed, large-scale, high-level cognitive function-related brain network. Intriguingly, these radiosensitive functional alterations were found to be fully or partially recoverable. In contrast, progressive late disruptions to the integrity of the related far-end white matter structure began to be significant after one year. Importantly, early increased local brain functional activity was predictive of severe later temporal lobe necrosis. Based on these findings, we proposed a dynamic, multifactorial model for radiation injury and another preventive model for timely clinical intervention. Hum Brain Mapp 39:407-427, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. A balance of activity in brain control and reward systems predicts self-regulatory outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Richard B; Chen, Pin-Hao A; Huckins, Jeremy F; Hofmann, Wilhelm; Kelley, William M; Heatherton, Todd F

    2017-05-01

    Previous neuroimaging work has shown that increased reward-related activity following exposure to food cues is predictive of self-control failure. The balance model suggests that self-regulation failures result from an imbalance in reward and executive control mechanisms. However, an open question is whether the relative balance of activity in brain systems associated with executive control (vs reward) supports self-regulatory outcomes when people encounter tempting cues in daily life. Sixty-nine chronic dieters, a population known for frequent lapses in self-control, completed a food cue-reactivity task during an fMRI scanning session, followed by a weeklong sampling of daily eating behaviors via ecological momentary assessment. We related participants' food cue activity in brain systems associated with executive control and reward to real-world eating patterns. Specifically, a balance score representing the amount of activity in brain regions associated with self-regulatory control, relative to automatic reward-related activity, predicted dieters' control over their eating behavior during the following week. This balance measure may reflect individual self-control capacity and be useful for examining self-regulation success in other domains and populations. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  15. Can we predict final outcome of internal medicine residents with in-training evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chierakul, Nitipatana; Pongprasobchai, Supot; Boonyapisit, Kanokwan; Chinthammitr, Yingyong; Pithukpakorn, Manop; Maneesai, Adisak; Srivijitkamol, Apiradee; Koomanachai, Pornpan; Koolvisoot, Ajchara; Tanwandee, Tawesak; Shayakul, Chairat; Kachintorn, Udom

    2011-02-01

    To assess the predictive value of in-training evaluation for determining future success in the internal medicine board certifying examination. Ninety-seven internal medicine residents from Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital who undertake the Thai Board examination during the academic year 2006-2008 were enrolled. Correlation between the scores during internal medicine rotation and final scores in board examination were then examined. Significant positive linear correlation was found between scores from both written and clinical parts of board certifying examination and scores from the first-year summative written and clinical examinations and also the second-year formative written examination (r = 0.43-0.68, p evaluation by attending staffs was less well correlated (r = 0.29-0.36) and the evaluation by nurses or medical students demonstrated inverse relationship (r = -0.2, p = 0.27 and r = -0.13, p = 0.48). Some methods of in-training evaluation can predict successful outcome of board certifying examination. Multisource assessments cannot well extrapolate some aspects of professional competences and qualities.

  16. Multi-Marker Strategy in Heart Failure: Combination of ST2 and CRP Predicts Poor Outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Marie Dupuy

    Full Text Available Natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP are recognized as gold-standard predictive markers in Heart Failure (HF. However, currently ST2 (member of the interleukin 1 receptor family has emerged as marker of inflammation, fibrosis and cardiac stress. We evaluated ST2 and CRP as prognostic markers in 178 patients with chronic heart failure in comparison with other classical markers such as clinical established parameters but also biological markers: NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT alone or in combination. In multivariate analysis, subsequent addition of ST2 led to age, CRP and ST2 as the only remaining predictors of all-cause mortality (HR 1.03, HR 1.61 and HR 2.75, respectively as well as of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.00, HR 2.27 and HR 3.78, respectively. The combined increase of ST2 and CRP was significant for predicting worsened outcomes leading to identify a high risk subgroup that individual assessment of either marker. The same analysis was performed with ST2 in combination with Barcelona score. Overall, our findings extend previous data demonstrating that ST2 in combination with CRP as a valuable tool for identifying patients at risk of death.

  17. Left atrial ejection force predicts the outcome after catheter ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishima, Hideyuki; Mine, Takanao; Takahashi, Satoshi; Ashida, Kenki; Ishihara, Masaharu; Masuyama, Tohru

    2018-02-01

    Left atrium (LA) systolic dysfunction is observed in the early stages of atrial fibrillation (AF) prior to LA anatomical change. We investigated whether LA systolic dysfunction predicts recurrent AF after catheter ablation (CA) in patients with paroxysmal AF. We studied 106 patients who underwent CA for paroxysmal AF. LA systolic function was assessed with the LA emptying volume = Maximum LA volume (LAV max ) - Minimum LA volume (LAV min ), LA emptying fraction = [(LAV max - LAV min )/LAV max ] × 100, and LA ejection force calculated with Manning's method [LA ejection force = (0.5 × ρ × mitral valve area × A 2 )], where ρ is the blood density and A is the late-diastolic mitral inflow velocity. Recurrent AF was detected in 35/106 (33%) during 14.6 ± 9.1 months. Univariate analysis revealed reduced LA ejection force, decreased LA emptying fraction, larger LA diameter, and elevated brain natriuretic peptide as significant variables. On multivariate analysis, reduced LA ejection force and larger LA diameter were independently associated with recurrent AF. Moreover, patients with reduced LA ejection force and larger LA diameter had a higher risk of recurrent AF than preserved LA ejection force (log-rank P = 0.0004). Reduced LA ejection force and larger LA diameter were associated with poor outcome after CA for paroxysmal AF, and could be a new index to predict recurrent AF. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. The predictive value of 2-year posttreatment biopsy after prostate cancer radiotherapy for eventual biochemical outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, Waseet; Tucker, Susan L.; Crevoisier, Renaud de; Kuban, Deborah A.; Cheung, M. Rex

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the value of a 2-year post-radiotherapy (RT) prostate biopsy for predicting eventual biochemical failure in patients who were treated for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: This study comprised 164 patients who underwent a planned 2-year post-RT prostate biopsy. The independent prognostic value of the biopsy results for forecasting eventual biochemical outcome and overall survival was tested with other factors (the Gleason score, 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor stage, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen level, risk group, and RT dose) in a multivariate analysis. The current nadir + 2 (CN + 2) definition of biochemical failure was used. Patients with rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or suspicious digital rectal examination before the biopsy were excluded. Results: The biopsy results were normal in 78 patients, scant atypical and malignant cells in 30, carcinoma with treatment effect in 43, and carcinoma without treatment effect in 13. Using the CN + 2 definition, we found a significant association between biopsy results and eventual biochemical failure. We also found that the biopsy status provides predictive information independent of the PSA status at the time of biopsy. Conclusion: A 2-year post-RT prostate biopsy may be useful for forecasting CN + 2 biochemical failure. Posttreatment prostate biopsy may be useful for identifying patients for aggressive salvage therapy

  19. Cerebrospinal Fluid Indices in Acute Drug Intoxication; Do They Predict the Patients’ Outcome?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammadreza Farsinejad

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In some intoxicated patients, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF is examined due to the prolonged loss of consciousness, focal neurologic findings, and fever of unknown origin. We aimed to evaluate the probable relationship between the different toxicity causes and the CSF indices in poisoned patients and determine if they could predict the patients’ outcome. Methods: All patients who had been admitted to the toxicology intensive care unit of Loghman-Hakim hospital between March 2006 and March 2011 and had undergone lumbar puncture (LP were included into this retrospective study. The patients’ demographic data and results of CSF evaluation (level of glucose, lactate dehydrogenase, protein, and white blood cells in CSF fluid were evaluated. The data was analyzed using SPSS software version 17. Results: A total of 111 patients were evaluated. Mean age of the patients was 37±15 years. Thirteen (11.7% had deceased. No relation was found between the cause of poisoning (medication involved and the changes in CSF indices. A statistically significant difference was found between the survivors and non-survivors in terms of CSF protein, LDH, and WBC. However, such a difference was not detected between these two groups regarding CSF glucose. Conclusion: In intoxicated patients with prolonged decreased level of consciousness or prolonged fever, early evaluation of CSF can help early diagnosis of complications such as meningitis and prompt treatment. Also, high level of protein, LDH, and WBC in the CSF can predict higher mortality rates in these patients.

  20. Cortical ensemble activity increasingly predicts behaviour outcomes during learning of a motor task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laubach, Mark; Wessberg, Johan; Nicolelis, Miguel A. L.

    2000-06-01

    When an animal learns to make movements in response to different stimuli, changes in activity in the motor cortex seem to accompany and underlie this learning. The precise nature of modifications in cortical motor areas during the initial stages of motor learning, however, is largely unknown. Here we address this issue by chronically recording from neuronal ensembles located in the rat motor cortex, throughout the period required for rats to learn a reaction-time task. Motor learning was demonstrated by a decrease in the variance of the rats' reaction times and an increase in the time the animals were able to wait for a trigger stimulus. These behavioural changes were correlated with a significant increase in our ability to predict the correct or incorrect outcome of single trials based on three measures of neuronal ensemble activity: average firing rate, temporal patterns of firing, and correlated firing. This increase in prediction indicates that an association between sensory cues and movement emerged in the motor cortex as the task was learned. Such modifications in cortical ensemble activity may be critical for the initial learning of motor tasks.

  1. Predictive Value of Glasgow Coma Score and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Score on the Outcome of Multiple Trauma Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratloo, Alireza; Shokravi, Masumeh; Safari, Saeed; Aziz, Awat Kamal

    2016-03-01

    The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score was developed to compensate for the limitations of Glasgow coma score (GCS) in recent years. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of GCS and FOUR score on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. The present prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department. GCS and FOUR scores were evaluated at the time of admission and at the sixth and twelfth hours after admission. Then the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive value of GCS and FOUR score were evaluated to predict patients' outcome. Patients' outcome was divided into discharge with and without a medical injury (motor deficit, coma or death). Finally, 89 patients were studied. Sensitivity and specificity of GCS in predicting adverse outcome (motor deficit, coma or death) were 84.2% and 88.6% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 95.4% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 91.5% at the twelfth hour, respectively. These values for the FOUR score were 86.9% and 88.4% at the time of admission, 89.5% and 100% at the sixth hour and 89.5% and 94.4% at the twelfth hour, respectively. Findings of this study indicate that the predictive value of FOUR score and GCS on the outcome of multiple trauma patients admitted to the emergency department is similar.

  2. Validating severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of outcomes in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Mamta; Szpunar, Susan; Khatib, Riad

    2013-08-01

    Severity of illness scores are helpful in predicting mortality; however, no standardized scoring system has been validated in patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). The modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) and the Charlson weighted index of comorbidity (CWIC) were compared in predicting outcomes at the onset of SAB. All adult inpatients with SAB from July 15, 2008, to December 31, 2009, were prospectively assessed. The 3 scoring systems were applied: REMS, CURB-65 and CWIC. The end points were attributable and overall mortality. A total of 241 patients with SAB were reviewed during the study period. The all-cause mortality rate was 22.8% and attributable mortality 14.1%. Patients who died had higher mean CURB-65 score and REMS than those who lived, whereas the difference in the CWIC score was not significant. Two logistic regression models based on CURB-65 score or REMS, after controlling for CWIC, revealed that both scores were independent predictors of mortality, with an odds ratio of 3.38 (P < 0.0001) and 1.45 (P < 0.0001) for CURB-65 and REMS, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that a cutoff point of 3.0 (CURB-65) and 6.0 (REMS) provided the highest sensitivity and specificity. The area under the curves for all-cause mortality were 0.832 and 0.806, and for attributable mortality 0.845 and 0.819, for CURB-65 and REMS, respectively. REMS and CURB-65 scores outperformed CWIC as predictors of mortality in SAB and may be effective in predicting the severity of illness at the onset of bacteremia.

  3. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-01-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1–2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan–Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy

  4. Does the emergency surgery score accurately predict outcomes in emergent laparotomies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peponis, Thomas; Bohnen, Jordan D; Sangji, Naveen F; Nandan, Anirudh R; Han, Kelsey; Lee, Jarone; Yeh, D Dante; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A

    2017-08-01

    The emergency surgery score is a mortality-risk calculator for emergency general operation patients. We sought to examine whether the emergency surgery score predicts 30-day morbidity and mortality in a high-risk group of patients undergoing emergent laparotomy. Using the 2011-2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, we identified all patients who underwent emergent laparotomy using (1) the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program definition of "emergent," and (2) all Current Procedural Terminology codes denoting a laparotomy, excluding aortic aneurysm rupture. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to measure the correlation (c-statistic) between the emergency surgery score and (1) 30-day mortality, and (2) 30-day morbidity after emergent laparotomy. As sensitivity analyses, the correlation between the emergency surgery score and 30-day mortality was also evaluated in prespecified subgroups based on Current Procedural Terminology codes. A total of 26,410 emergent laparotomy patients were included. Thirty-day mortality and morbidity were 10.2% and 43.8%, respectively. The emergency surgery score correlated well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.84); scores of 1, 11, and 22 correlated with mortalities of 0.4%, 39%, and 100%, respectively. Similarly, the emergency surgery score correlated well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.74); scores of 0, 7, and 11 correlated with complication rates of 13%, 58%, and 79%, respectively. The morbidity rates plateaued for scores higher than 11. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the emergency surgery score effectively predicts mortality in patients undergoing emergent (1) splenic, (2) gastroduodenal, (3) intestinal, (4) hepatobiliary, or (5) incarcerated ventral hernia operation. The emergency surgery score accurately predicts outcomes in all types of emergent laparotomy patients and may prove valuable as a bedside decision

  5. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de; Fonseca, Francisco Paula da; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA ≥ 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  6. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de, E-mail: Ricardo@delarocaurologia.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Fonseca, Francisco Paula da, E-mail: fpf@uol.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Divisao de Urologia. Dept. de Cirurgia Pelvica; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins, E-mail: iwerneck@gmail.com, E-mail: stephaniab@gmail.com [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Patologia

    2013-07-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA {>=} 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  7. Optic nerve magnetisation transfer ratio after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yejun Wang

    Full Text Available Magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR can reveal the degree of proton exchange between free water and macromolecules and was suggested to be pathological informative. We aimed to investigate changes in optic nerve MTR over 12 months following acute optic neuritis (ON and to determine whether MTR measurements can predict clinical and paraclinical outcomes at 6 and 12 months. Thirty-seven patients with acute ON were studied within 2 weeks of presentation and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Assessments included optic nerve MTR, retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL thickness, multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP amplitude and latency and high (100% and low (2.5% contrast letter acuity. Eleven healthy controls were scanned twice four weeks apart for comparison with patients. Patient unaffected optic nerve MTR did not significantly differ from controls at any time-point. Compared to the unaffected nerve, affected optic nerve MTR was significantly reduced at 3 months (mean percentage interocular difference = -9.24%, p = 0.01, 6 months (mean = -12.48%, p<0.0001 and 12 months (mean = -7.61%, p = 0.003. Greater reduction in MTR at 3 months in patients was associated with subsequent loss of high contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.0003 and 12 (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.009 months, low contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.047 months, and RNFL thinning at 12 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.044 months. Stratification of individual patient MTR time courses based on flux over 12 months (stable, putative remyelination and putative degeneration predicted RNFL thinning at 12 months (F(2,32 = 3.59, p = 0.02. In conclusion, these findings indicate that MTR flux after acute ON is predictive of axonal degeneration and visual disability outcomes.

  8. Validity of a simple Internet-based outcome-prediction tool in patients with total hip replacement: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckli, Cornel; Theiler, Robert; Sidelnikov, Eduard; Balsiger, Maria; Ferrari, Stephen M; Buchzig, Beatus; Uehlinger, Kurt; Riniker, Christoph; Bischoff-Ferrari, Heike A

    2014-04-01

    We developed a user-friendly Internet-based tool for patients undergoing total hip replacement (THR) due to osteoarthritis to predict their pain and function after surgery. In the first step, the key questions were identified by statistical modelling in a data set of 375 patients undergoing THR. Based on multiple regression, we identified the two most predictive WOMAC questions for pain and the three most predictive WOMAC questions for functional outcome, while controlling for comorbidity, body mass index, age, gender and specific comorbidities relevant to the outcome. In the second step, a pilot study was performed to validate the resulting tool against the full WOMAC questionnaire among 108 patients undergoing THR. The mean difference between observed (WOMAC) and model-predicted value was -1.1 points (95% confidence interval, CI -3.8, 1.5) for pain and -2.5 points (95% CI -5.3, 0.3) for function. The model-predicted value was within 20% of the observed value in 48% of cases for pain and in 57% of cases for function. The tool demonstrated moderate validity, but performed weakly for patients with extreme levels of pain and extreme functional limitations at 3 months post surgery. This may have been partly due to early complications after surgery. However, the outcome-prediction tool may be useful in helping patients to become better informed about the realistic outcome of their THR.

  9. A new nomogram for prediction of outcome of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, Hasan Serkan; Altan, Mesut; Citamak, Burak; Bozaci, Ali Cansu; Karabulut, Erdem; Tekgul, Serdar

    2015-04-01

    Despite the fact that shock-wave lithotripsy (SWL) remains a very good treatment option for smaller stones, it is being challenged by endourologic treatment modalities, which offer similar or even higher success rates in a shorter time, with minimal morbidity and invasiveness. The present study aimed to bring a new and practical insight in order to predict the outcomes of pediatric SWL and to provide objective information about pediatric SWL outcomes. To design a nomogram for predicting the outcomes of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy. The study was conducted with a retrospective design and included 402 renal units who underwent SWL between January 2009 and August 2013. Patients with known cystine stone disease and cystinuria, with internal or external urinary diversion, were excluded. Analysis was performed on 383 renal units. Postoperative imaging was performed by plain abdominal graphy and ultrasonography with 3-month intervals. Patients who were completely free of stones were considered to be a success and statistical analysis was done regardingly Multivariate analysis was conducted by logistic regression analysis and a nomogram was developed. The male/female distribution was 216/167, with a mean age of 48 ± 40 months and a mean stone size of 9 ± 3.5 mm. The overall stone-free rate was 70% (270/383) and efficacy quotient was 0.57. Mean follow-up was 11 ± 11 months (3-54 months). The number of shock waves and amplitude of energy were higher in failed cases. Multivariate analysis showed that gender, stone size, number of stones, age, location of the stone, and history of previous intervention were found to be the independent prognostic factors for assessing the stone clearance rates. A nomogram was developed using these parameters. In this nomogram, the points achieved from each parameter are summed and total points correspond to the risk of failure in percent. A previous nomogram study by Onal et al. showed that younger age (history, single stone, pelvis or

  10. Improved Outcome Prediction Using CT Angiography in Addition to Standard Ischemic Stroke Assessment: Results from the STOPStroke Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, R. Gilberto; Lev, Michael H.; Goldmacher, Gregory V.; Smith, Wade S.; Payabvash, Seyedmehdi; Harris, Gordon J.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Koroshetz, Walter J.; Camargo, Erica C. S.; Dillon, William P.; Furie, Karen L.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To improve ischemic stroke outcome prediction using imaging information from a prospective cohort who received admission CT angiography (CTA). Methods In a prospectively designed study, 649 stroke patients diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke had admission NIH stroke scale scores, noncontrast CT (NCCT), CTA, and 6-month outcome assessed using the modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores. Poor outcome was defined as mRS>2. Strokes were classified as “major” by the (1) Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS+) if NCCT ASPECTS was≤7; (2) Boston Acute Stroke Imaging Scale (BASIS+) if they were ASPECTS+ or CTA showed occlusion of the distal internal carotid, proximal middle cerebral, or basilar arteries; and (3) NIHSS for scores>10. Results Of 649 patients, 253 (39.0%) had poor outcomes. NIHSS, BASIS, and age, but not ASPECTS, were independent predictors of outcome. BASIS and NIHSS had similar sensitivities, both superior to ASPECTS (p10/BASIS+ had poor outcomes, versus 21.5% (77/358) with NIHSS≤10/BASIS− (p10/BASIS+ compared to patients who are NIHSS≤10/BASIS−; the odds ratio is 5.4 (95% CI: 3.5 to 8.5) when compared to patients who are only NIHSS>10 or BASIS+. Conclusions BASIS and NIHSS are independent outcome predictors. Their combination is stronger than either instrument alone in predicting outcomes. The findings suggest that CTA is a significant clinical tool in routine acute stroke assessment. PMID:22276182

  11. Volatility and change in chronic pain severity predict outcomes of treatment for prescription opioid addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worley, Matthew J; Heinzerling, Keith G; Shoptaw, Steven; Ling, Walter

    2017-07-01

    Buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NLX) can be used to manage prescription opioid addiction among persons with chronic pain, but post-treatment relapse is common and difficult to predict. This study estimated whether changes in pain over time and pain volatility during BUP-NLX maintenance would predict opioid use during the taper BUP-NLX taper. Secondary analysis of a multi-site clinical trial for prescription opioid addiction, using data obtained during a 12-week BUP-NLX stabilization and 4-week BUP-NLX taper. Community clinics affiliated with a national clinical trials network in 10 US cities. Subjects with chronic pain who entered the BUP-NLX taper phase (n = 125) with enrollment occurring from June 2006 to July 2009 (52% male, 88% Caucasian, 31% married). Outcomes were weekly biologically verified and self-reported opioid use from the 4-week taper phase. Predictors were estimates of baseline severity, rate of change and volatility in pain from weekly self-reports during the 12-week maintenance phase. Controlling for baseline pain and treatment condition, increased pain [odds ratio (OR) = 2.38, P = 0.02] and greater pain volatility (OR = 2.43, P = 0.04) predicted greater odds of positive opioid urine screen during BUP-NLX taper. Increased pain (IRR = 1.40, P = 0.04) and greater pain volatility [incidence-rate ratio (IRR) = 1.66, P = 0.009] also predicted greater frequency of self-reported opioid use. Adults with chronic pain receiving out-patient treatment with buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP-NLX) for prescription opioid addiction have an elevated risk for opioid use when tapering off maintenance treatment. Those with relative persistence in pain over time and greater volatility in pain during treatment are less likely to sustain abstinence during BUP-NLX taper. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  12. Autoreactive T Cells in Human Smokers Is Predictive of Clinical Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang eXu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional studies have suggested a role for activation of adaptive immunity in smokers with emphysema, but the clinical application of these findings has not been explored. Here we examined the utility of detecting autoreactive T cells as a screening tool for emphysema in an at-risk population of smokers. We followed 156 former and current (ever-smokers for two years to assess whether peripheral blood CD4 T cell cytokine responses to lung elastin fragments (EFs could discriminate between those with and without emphysema, and to evaluate the relevance of autoreactive T cells to predict changes during follow-up in lung physiological parameters. Volunteers underwent baseline complete phenotypic assessment with pulmonary function tests, quantitative chest CT, yearly six minutes walk distance (6MWD testing, and annual measurement of CD4 T cell cytokine responses to EFs. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict emphysema for interferon gamma (IFN-γ, and interleukin 6 (IL-6 responses to EFs were 0.81 (95% CI of 0.74 to 0.88 and 0.79 (95% CI of 0.72 to 0.86 respectively. We developed a dual cytokine enzyme-linked immunocell spot assay, the γ-6 Spot, using CD4 T cell IFN-γ and IL-6 responses and found that it discriminated emphysema with 90% sensitivity. After adjusting for potential confounders, the presence of autoreactive T cells was predictive of a decrease in 6MWD over two years (decline in 6MWD, -19 meters (m per fold change in IFN-γ; P=0.026, and -26 m per fold change in IL-6; P=0.003. These findings collectively suggest that the EF specific autoreactive CD4 T cell assay, γ-6 Spot, could provide a non-invasive diagnostic tool with potential application to large-scale screening to discriminate emphysema in ever-smokers, and predict early relevant physiological outcomes in those at risk.

  13. Performance of third-trimester combined screening model for prediction of adverse perinatal outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J; Triunfo, S; Rodriguez-Lopez, M; Sairanen, M; Kouru, H; Parra-Saavedra, M; Crovetto, F; Figueras, F; Crispi, F; Gratacós, E

    2017-09-01

    To explore the potential value of third-trimester combined screening for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome (APO) in the general population and among small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses. This was a nested case-control study within a prospective cohort of 1590 singleton gestations undergoing third-trimester evaluation (32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation). Maternal baseline characteristics, mean arterial blood pressure, fetoplacental ultrasound and circulating biochemical markers (placental growth factor (PlGF), lipocalin-2, unconjugated estriol and inhibin A) were assessed in all women who subsequently had an APO (n = 148) and in a control group without perinatal complications (n = 902). APO was defined as the occurrence of stillbirth, umbilical artery cord blood pH < 7.15, 5-min Apgar score < 7 or emergency operative delivery for fetal distress. Logistic regression models were developed for the prediction of APO in the general population and among SGA cases (defined as customized birth weight < 10 th centile). The prevalence of APO was 9.3% in the general population and 27.4% among SGA cases. In the general population, a combined screening model including a-priori risk (maternal characteristics), estimated fetal weight (EFW) centile, umbilical artery pulsatility index (UA-PI), estriol and PlGF achieved a detection rate for APO of 26% (area under receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), 0.59 (95% CI, 0.54-0.65)), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). Among SGA cases, a model including a-priori risk, EFW centile, UA-PI, cerebroplacental ratio, estriol and PlGF predicted 62% of APO (AUC, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.92)) at a FPR of 10%. The use of fetal ultrasound and maternal biochemical markers at 32-36 weeks provides a poor prediction of APO in the general population. Although it remains limited, the performance of the screening model is improved when applied to fetuses with suboptimal fetal growth. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons

  14. A predictive model for pressure ulcer outcome: the Wound Healing Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Susan D; Barrett, Ryan S; Fife, Caroline E; Thomson, Brett

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this learning activity is to provide information regarding the creation of a risk-stratification system to predict the likelihood of the healing of body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs). This continuing education activity is intended for physicians and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Explain the need for a PrU risk stratification tool.2. Describe the purpose and methodology of the study.3. Delineate the results of the study and development of the Wound Healing Index. : To create a validated system to predict the healing likelihood of patients with body and heel pressure ulcers (PrUs), incorporating only patient- and wound-specific variables. The US Wound Registry data were examined retrospectively and assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, and so on). Significant variables were identified with bivariate analyses. Multivariable logistic regression models were created based on significant factors (P wound clinics in 24 states : A total of 7973 body PrUs and 2350 heel PrUs were eligible for analysis. Not applicable : Healed PrU MAIN RESULTS:: Because of missing data elements, the logistic regression development model included 6640 body PrUs, of which 4300 healed (64.8%), and the 10% validation sample included 709 PrUs, of which 477 healed (67.3%). For heel PrUs, the logistic regression development model included 1909 heel PrUs, of which 1240 healed (65.0%), and the 10% validation sample included 203 PrUs, of which 133 healed (65.5%). Variables significantly predicting healing were PrU size, PrU age, number of concurrent wounds of any etiology, PrU Stage III or IV, evidence of bioburden/infection, patient age, being nonambulatory, having renal transplant, paralysis, malnutrition, and/or patient hospitalization for any reason. Body and heel PrU Wound Healing Indices are comprehensive, user-friendly, and validated predictive models for

  15. Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfei Fu

    Full Text Available The features related to the prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MBC remain controversial. We aimed to explore the prognostic factors of MBC and develop a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database was searched to identify 139611 women with resectable breast cancer from 1990 to 2007. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier methods. The 5-year and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS rates were calculated using the Life-Table method. Based on Cox models, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probabilities of CSS for an individual patient. The competing risk regression model was used to analyse the specific survival of patients with MBC.There were 136569 (97.82% infiltrative ductal cancer (IDC patients and 3042 (2.18% MBC patients. Patients with MBC had less lymph node involvement, a higher frequency of well-differentiated lesions, and more estrogen receptor (ER-positive tumors. Patients with MBC had significantly higher 5 and10-year CSS rates (98.23 and 96.03%, respectively than patients with IDC (91.44 and 85.48%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that MBC was an independent factor for better prognosis. As for patients with MBC, the event of death caused by another disease exceeded the event of death caused by breast cancer. A competing risk regression model further showed that lymph node involvement, poorly differentiated grade and advanced T-classification were independent factors of poor prognosis in patients with MBC. The Nomogram can accurately predict CSS with a high C-index (0.816. Risk scores developed from the nomogram can more accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MBC (C-index = 0.789 than the traditional TNM system (C-index = 0.704, P< 0.001.Patients with MBC have a better prognosis than patients with IDC. Nomograms could help clinicians make more informed decisions in clinical practice. The competing risk

  16. Predicting functional outcomes of posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke in first 36 h of stroke onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Sheng-Feng; Chen, Chin-I; Hu, Han-Hwa; Bai, Chyi-Huey

    2018-04-01

    Posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke constitutes one-fourth of all ischemic strokes and can be efficiently quantified using the posterior circulation Alberta stroke program early computed tomography score (PC-ASPECTS) through diffusion-weighted imaging. We investigated whether the PC-ASPECTS and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) facilitate functional outcome prediction among Chinese patients with posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke. Participants were selected from our prospective stroke registry from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2016. The baseline NIHSS score was assessed on the first day of admission, and brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed within 36 h after stroke onset. Simple and multiple logistic regressions were conducted to determine stroke risk factors and the PC-ASPECTS. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to compare the NIHSS and PC-ASPECTS. Of 549 patients from our prospective stroke admission registry database, 125 (22.8%) had a diagnosis of posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke. The optimal cutoff for the PC-ASPECTS in predicting outcomes was 7. The odds ratios of the PC-ASPECTS (≤ 7 vs > 7) in predicting outcomes were 6.33 (p = 0.0002) and 8.49 (p = 0.0060) in the univariate and multivariate models, respectively, and 7.52 (p = 0.0041) in the aging group. On ROC curve analysis, the PC-ASPECTS demonstrated more reliability than the baseline NIHSS for predicting functional outcomes of minor posterior circulation stroke. In conclusion, both the PC-ASPECTS and NIHSS help clinicians predict functional outcomes. PC-ASPECTS > 7 is a helpful discriminator for achieving favorable functional outcome prediction in posterior circulation acute ischemic stroke.

  17. Preoperative neutrophil response as a predictive marker of clinical outcome following open heart surgery and the impact of leukocyte filtration.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Soo, Alan W

    2010-11-01

    Open heart surgery is associated with a massive systemic inflammatory response. Neutrophils, are the main mediator of this response. We hypothesised that the degree of neutrophil activation and inflammatory response to open heart surgery varies individually and correlates with clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to determine if individual clinical outcome can be predicted preoperatively through assessment of in-vitro stimulated neutrophil responses. Following that, the effects of neutrophil depletion through leukocyte filters are examined.

  18. PRAME overexpression predicted good outcome in pediatric B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients receiving chemotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan-Huan; Lu, Ai-Dong; Yang, Lu; Li, Ling-Di; Chen, Wen-Min; Long, Ling-Yu; Zhang, Le-Ping; Qin, Ya-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the prognostic value of PRAME expression in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia(ALL), we measured PRAME transcript levels at diagnosis in 191 patients(146 B-ALL; 45T-ALL)receiving chemotherapy only. PRAME overexpression was defined as transcript levels higher than 0.30%, which is the upper limit of normal bone marrow and the optimal cutoff value derived from ROC curve analysis. PRAME overexpression was identified in 45.5% of patients. In B-ALL, PRAME overexpression was significantly associated with lower CIR(cumulative incidence of relapse), higher DFS (disease-freesurvival), and OS(overall survival) rates at 3 years, respectively (5.8% vs. 14.9%, P=0.014; 94.2% vs. 85.1%, P=0.014; 96.0% vs. 87.4%, P=0.039). PRAME overexpression had no impact on outcome in T-ALL patients. Among B-ALL patients with non-poor cytogenetic risk, those with PRAME overexpression showed significantly lower CIR, higher DFS and OS rates at 3 years, respectively (8.47% vs. 14.5%, P=0.009; 96.5% vs. 85.5%, P=0.009; 98.4% vs. 88.0%, P=0.023). Furthermore, PRAME overexpression was an independent good prognostic factor for relapse in all B-ALL patients and B-ALL patients with non-poor cytogenetic risk. Therefore, the prognostic significance of PRAME overexpression differed by ALL subtype; It predicted good outcome in pediatric B-ALL receiving chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Esophagogastric junction distensibility measurements during Heller myotomy and POEM for achalasia predict postoperative symptomatic outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Ezra N.; Soper, Nathaniel J.; Pandolfino, John E.; Kahrilas, Peter J.; Hirano, Ikuo; Boris, Lubomyr; Nicodème, Frédéric; Lin, Zhiyue; Hungness, Eric S.

    2015-01-01

    Background The functional lumen imaging probe (FLIP) is a novel diagnostic tool that can be used to measure esophagogastric junction (EGJ) distensibility. In this study we performed intraoperative FLIP measurements during laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) and peroral esophageal myotomy (POEM) for treatment of achalasia and evaluated the relationship between EGJ distensibility and postoperative symptoms. Methods Distensibility index (DI) (defined as the minimum cross-sectional area at the EGJ divided by distensive pressure) was measured with FLIP at two time points during LHM and POEM: 1) at baseline after induction of anesthesia, and 2) after operation completion. Results Measurements were performed in 20 patients undergoing LHM and 36 undergoing POEM. Both operations resulted in an increase in DI, although this increase was larger with POEM (7±3.1 vs. 5.1±3.4mm2/mmHg, p3mm2/mmHg. When all patients were divided into thirds based on final DI, none in the lowest DI group (7), as compared with 20% in the middle third (6–9mm2/mmHg) and 36% in the highest third (>9mm2/mmHg). Patients within an “ideal” final DI range (4.5–8.5 mm2/mmHg) had optimal symptomatic outcomes (i.e. Eckardt≤1 and GerdQ≤7) in 88% of cases, compared with 47% in those with a final DI above or below that range (p<.05). Conclusions Intraoperative EGJ distensibility measurements with FLIP were predictive of postoperative symptomatic outcomes. These results provide initial evidence that FLIP has the potential to act as a useful calibration tool during operations for achalasia. PMID:25055891

  20. Serum uric acid level predicts adverse outcomes after myocardial revascularization or cardiac valve surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzeroni, Davide; Bini, Matteo; Camaiora, Umberto; Castiglioni, Paolo; Moderato, Luca; Bosi, Davide; Geroldi, Simone; Ugolotti, Pietro T; Brambilla, Lorenzo; Brambilla, Valerio; Coruzzi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Background High levels of serum uric acid have been associated with adverse outcomes in cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and heart failure. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic role of serum uric acid levels in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation after myocardial revascularization and/or cardiac valve surgery. Design We performed an observational prospective cohort study. Methods The study included 1440 patients with available serum uric acid levels, prospectively followed for 50 ± 17 months. Mean age was 67 ± 11 years; 781 patients (54%) underwent myocardial revascularization, 474 (33%) cardiac valve surgery and 185 (13%) valve-plus-coronary artery by-pass graft surgery. The primary endpoints were overall and cardiovascular mortality while secondary end-points were combined major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events. Results Serum uric acid level mean values were 286 ± 95 µmol/l and elevated serum uric acid levels (≥360 µmol/l or 6 mg/dl) were found in 275 patients (19%). Overall mortality (hazard ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval: 1.5-3.0; p uric acid levels, even after adjustment for age, gender, arterial hypertension, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate, atrial fibrillation and medical therapy. Moreover, strong positive correlations between serum uric acid level and probability of overall mortality ( p uric acid levels predict mortality and adverse cardiovascular outcome in patients undergoing myocardial revascularization and/or cardiac valve surgery even after the adjustment for age, gender, arterial hypertension, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate and medical therapy.

  1. The prognostic significance of HOTAIR for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Gaoxiang; Wang, Qiaoyan; Lv, Chunye; Qiang, Fulin; Hua, Qiuhan; Chu, Haiyan; Du, Mulong; Tong, Na; Jiang, Yejuan; Wang, Meilin; Zhang, Zhengdong; Wang, Jian; Gong, Weida

    2015-12-01

    Although some studies have assessed the prognostic value of HOTAIR in patients with digestive system tumors, the relationship between the HOTAIR and outcome of digestive system tumors remains unknown. The PubMed was searched to identify the eligible studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis with 11 studies, including a total of 903 cases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of HOTAIR for cancer survival were calculated. We found that the pooled HR elevated HOTAIR expression in tumor tissues was 2.36 (95 % CI 1.88-2.97) compared with patients with low HOTAIR expression. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that HOTAIR overexpression was also markedly associated with short survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.62-2.94) and gastric cancer (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.02-2.68). In addition, up-regulated HOTAIR was significantly related to survival of digestive system cancer among the studies with more follow-up time (follow time ≥ 5 years) (HR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.99-3.17). When stratified by HR resource and number of patients, the result indicated consistent results with the overall analysis. Subgroup analysis on ethnicities did not change the prognostic influence of elevated HOTAIR expression. Additionally, we conducted an independent validation cohort including 71 gastric cancer cases, in which patients with up-regulated HOTAIR expression had an unfavorable outcome with HR of 2.10 (95 % CI 1.10-4.03). The results suggest that aberrant HOTAIR expression may serve as a candidate positive marker to predict the prognosis of patients with carcinoma of digestive system.

  2. Corticospinal integrity and motor impairment predict outcomes after excitatory repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chih-Jou; Wang, Chih-Pin; Tsai, Po-Yi; Chan, Rai-Chi; Lin, Shan-Hui; Lin, Fu-Gong; Hsieh, Chin-Yi

    2015-01-01

    To identify the effective predictors for therapeutic outcomes based on intermittent theta-burst stimulation (iTBS). A sham-controlled, double-blind parallel study design. A tertiary hospital. People with stroke (N=72) who presented with unilateral hemiplegia. Ten consecutive sessions of real or sham iTBS were implemented with the aim of enhancing hand function. Patients were categorized into 4 groups according to the presence (MEP+) or absence (MEP-) of motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) and grip strength according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale. Cortical excitability, Wolf Motor Function Test (WMFT), finger-tapping task (FT), and simple reaction time were performed before and after the sessions. MEPs and the MRC scale were predictive of iTBS therapeutic outcomes. Group A (MEP+, MRC>1) exhibited the greatest WMFT change (7.6±2.3, P1; 5.2±2.2 score change) and group C (MEP-, MRC=0; 2.3±1.5 score change). These improvements were correlated significantly with baseline motor function and ipsilesional maximum MEP amplitude. The effectiveness of iTBS modulation for poststroke motor enhancement depends on baseline hand grip strength and the presence of MEPs. Our findings indicate that establishing neurostimulation strategies based on the proposed electrophysiological and clinical criteria can allow iTBS to be executed with substantial precision. Effective neuromodulatory strategies can be formulated by using electrophysiological features and clinical presentation information as guidelines. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guiu, Boris, E-mail: boris.guiu@chu-dijon.fr; Deschamps, Frederic [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France); Boulin, Mathieu [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Boige, Valerie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Digestive Oncology (France); Hillon, Patrick [University Hospital, INSERM U866 (France); Baere, Thierry de [Institut Gustave Roussy, Department of Interventional Radiology (France)

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  4. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guiu, Boris; Deschamps, Frédéric; Boulin, Mathieu; Boige, Valérie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel; Hillon, Patrick; Baère, Thierry de

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT ≥165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was ≥165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT ≥ 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT ≥ 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  5. Can stone density on plain radiography predict the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy for ureteral stones?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Ki Hong; Jung, Jin-Hee; Kwon, Jae Hyun; Lee, Yong Seok; Bae, Jungbum; Cho, Min Chul; Lee, Kwang Soo

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The objective was to determine whether stone density on plain radiography (kidney-ureter-bladder, KUB) could predict the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) for ureteral stones. Materials and Methods A total of 223 patients treated by ESWL for radio-opaque ureteral stones of 5 to 20 mm were included in this retrospective study. All patients underwent routine blood and urine analyses, plain radiography (KUB), and noncontrast computed tomography (NCCT) before ESWL. Demographic, stone, and radiological characteristics on KUB and NCCT were analyzed. The patients were categorized into two groups: lower-density (LD) group (radiodensity less than or equal to that of the 12th rib, n=163) and higher-density (HD) group (radiodensity greater than that of the 12th rib, n=60). Stone-free status was assessed by KUB every week after ESWL. A successful outcome was defined as stone free within 1 month after ESWL. Results Mean stone size in the LD group was significantly smaller than that in the HD group (7.5±1.4 mm compared with 9.9±2.9 mm, p=0.002). The overall success rates in the LD and HD groups were 82.1% and 60.0%, respectively (p=0.007). The mean duration of stone-free status and average number of SWL sessions required for success in the two groups were 21.7 compared with 39.2 days and 1.8 compared with 2.3, respectively (pESWL since colic and radiodensity of the stone on KUB were independent predictors of successful ESWL. Conclusions Our data suggest that larger stone size, longer time to ESWL, and ureteral stones with a radiodensity greater than that of the 12th rib may be at a relatively higher risk of ESWL failure 1 month after the procedure. PMID:25598937

  6. A STUDY OF PREDICTING THE NEED FOR VENTILATOR SUPPORT AND OUTCOME IN ORGANOPHOSPHORUS POISONING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalinga Bommankatte Eranaik

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Organophosphorus compound poisoning is the most common poisonings in India because of easy availability, often requiring ICU care and ventilator support. Clinical research has indicated that respiratory failure is the most important cause of death due to Organophosphorus poisoning. It results in respiratory muscle weakness, pulmonary oedema, respiratory depression, increased secretions and bronchospasm. These complications and death can be prevented with timely Institution of ventilator support. The aim of present study was to identify the factors and predicting the need for ventilator support and outcome. Aim of the Study- To predict the need for ventilator support and outcome in organophosphate poisoning. MATERIALS AND METHODS Seventy consecutive patients admitted with a history of organophosphorus poisoning at KIMS, Hubli were taken for study after considering the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Detailed history, confirmation of poisoning, examination and other than routine investigations serum pseudocholinesterase and arterial blood gas analysis was done. The severity of organophosphorus poisoning was graded as mild, moderate and severe based on the factors which influence the need for ventilator support. RESULTS This study was conducted in 70 patients, out of which 48 (68.6% were male patients and 22 (31.4% were female patients. Among them 37 (53% patients required ventilation and 33 (47% expired. Chlorpyrifos, Dichlorvos and Monocrotophos were most commonly consumed poisons. 74% patients who consumed these compounds required ventilator support and 73% patients expired. 100% of patients presented with pin point pupil, fasciculation score > 4, respiratory rate > 20, GCS score < 7 and severe grade of poisoning required ventilator support and pseudocholinesterase < 900 U/L, 70% of metabolic acidosis and atropine requirement more than 180 mg within 48 hours required ventilator support and associated with high mortality. CONCLUSION

  7. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus Bm; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI), weight, and/or height. Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean) cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast(®) device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland). Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right), totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5-4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area). Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires. The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades) and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades). Compared with baseline, no patient's condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, Pcellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight, height, or age. Radial shock wave therapy is a safe and effective treatment option for cellulite. The individual clinical outcome cannot be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight

  8. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schlaudraff KU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI, weight, and/or height.Methods: Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast® device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland. Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right, totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5–4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area. Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires.Results: The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades. Compared with baseline, no patient's condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, P<0

  9. Prediction of motor outcomes and activities of daily living function using diffusion tensor tractography in acute hemiparetic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imura, Takeshi; Nagasawa, Yuki; Inagawa, Tetsuji; Imada, Naoki; Izumi, Hiroaki; Emoto, Katsuya; Tani, Itaru; Yamasaki, Hiroyuki; Ota, Yuichiro; Oki, Shuichi; Maeda, Tadanori; Araki, Osamu

    2015-05-01

    [Purpose] The efficacy of diffusion tensor imaging in the prediction of motor outcomes and activities of daily living function remains unclear. We evaluated the most appropriate diffusion tensor parameters and methodology to determine whether the region of interest- or tractography-based method was more useful for predicting motor outcomes and activities of daily living function in stroke patients. [Subjects and Methods] Diffusion tensor imaging data within 10 days after stroke onset were collected and analyzed for 25 patients. The corticospinal tract was analyzed. Fractional anisotropy, number of fibers, and apparent diffusion coefficient were used as diffusion tensor parameters. Motor outcomes and activities of daily living function were evaluated on the same day as diffusion tensor imaging and at 1 month post-onset. [Results] The fractional anisotropy value of the affected corticospinal tract significantly correlated with the motor outcome and activities of daily living function within 10 days post-onset and at 1 month post-onset. Tthere were no significant correlations between other diffusion tensor parameters and motor outcomes or activities of daily living function. [Conclusion] The fractional anisotropy value of the affected corticospinal tract obtained using the tractography-based method was useful for predicting motor outcomes and activities of daily living function in stroke patients.

  10. Can we predict the outcome for people with patellofemoral pain? A systematic review on prognostic factors and treatment effect modifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, M; Rathleff, M S; Claus, A; McPoil, T; Nee, R; Crossley, K; Vicenzino, B

    2017-12-01

    Patellofemoral pain (PFP) is a multifactorial and often persistent knee condition. One strategy to enhance patient outcomes is using clinically assessable patient characteristics to predict the outcome and match a specific treatment to an individual. A systematic review was conducted to determine which baseline patient characteristics were (1) associated with patient outcome (prognosis); or (2) modified patient outcome from a specific treatment (treatment effect modifiers). 6 electronic databases were searched (July 2016) for studies evaluating the association between those with PFP, their characteristics and outcome. All studies were appraised using the Epidemiological Appraisal Instrument. Studies that aimed to identify treatment effect modifiers underwent a checklist for methodological quality. The 24 included studies evaluated 180 participant characteristics. 12 studies investigated prognosis, and 12 studies investigated potential treatment effect modifiers. Important methodological limitations were identified. Some prognostic studies used a retrospective design. Studies aiming to identify treatment effect modifiers often analysed too many variables for the limiting sample size and typically failed to use a control or comparator treatment group. 16 factors were reported to be associated with a poor outcome, with longer duration of symptoms the most reported (>4 months). Preliminary evidence suggests increased midfoot mobility may predict those who have a successful outcome to foot orthoses. Current evidence can identify those with increased risk of a poor outcome, but methodological limitations make it difficult to predict the outcome after one specific treatment compared with another. Adequately designed randomised trials are needed to identify treatment effect modifiers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  11. Does nailfold capillaroscopy help predict future outcomes in systemic sclerosis? A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Dolcie; Pauling, John D

    2018-02-14

    Nailfold capillaroscopy (NC) is an important diagnostic tool in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Confirmation of NC as a prognostic factor could facilitate earlier intervention and slow disease progression in SSc. We undertook a systematic literature review to evaluate the prognostic value of NC in predicting SSc disease progression. Standardised searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE were undertaken to identify longitudinal studies of adult subjects with SSc reporting the prognostic value of NC for any aspect of disease progression and/or survival. Non-English, non-original research, animal studies, non-adult studies and non-full length reports were excluded from the analysis (PROSPERO 2017:CRD42017071719). Wide heterogeneity in study design, prognostic factor measurement and study outcomes necessitated a qualitative data synthesis. The "QUality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) risk-of-bias tool was used to assess study quality. Study selection, data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment were each undertaken independently by 2 reviewers and consensus reached where necessary. Of 942 retrieved articles, 18 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies (17/18, 94%) reported positive associations between baseline NC appearances (using a variety of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative NC endpoints) and clinical outcomes including digital ulcer (DU) occurrence/healing, survival, disease progression (using domains of Medsger disease severity scale), calcinosis, skin progression, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), and/or a composite analysis of "cardiovascular events". Application of the QUIPS tool identified a moderate-high risk of potential bias in 6/18 studies for study participation, 3/18 studies for study attrition, 10/18 for prognostic factor measurement, 5/18 for outcome measurement, 13/18 for confounders and 13/18 for statistical analyses. Study quality limited the strength of the conclusions drawn from these studies. The most important source of

  12. Prediction of outcome in neurogenic oropharyngeal dysphagia within 72 hours of acute stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickenstein, Guntram W; Höhlig, Carolin; Prosiegel, Mario; Koch, Horst; Dziewas, Rainer; Bodechtel, Ulf; Müller, Rainer; Reichmann, Heinz; Riecker, Axel

    2012-10-01

    Stroke is the most frequent cause of neurogenic oropharyngeal dysphagia (NOD). In the acute phase of stroke, the frequency of NOD is greater than 50% and, half of this patient population return to good swallowing within 14 days while the other half develop chronic dysphagia. Because dysphagia leads to aspiration pneumonia, malnutrition, and in-hospital mortality, it is important to pay attention to swallowing problems. The question arises if a prediction of severe chronic dysphagia is possible within the first 72 hours of acute stroke. On admission to the stroke unit, all stroke patients were screened for swallowing problems by the nursing staff within 2 hours. Patients showing signs of aspiration were included in the study (n = 114) and were given a clinical swallowing examination (CSE) by the swallowing/speech therapist within 24 hours and a swallowing endoscopy within 72 hours by the physician. The primary outcome of the study was the functional communication measure (FCM) of swallowing (score 1-3, tube feeding dependency) on day 90. The grading system with the FCM swallowing and the penetration-aspiration scale (PAS) in the first 72 hours was tested in a multivariate analysis for its predictive value for tube feeding-dependency on day 90. For the FCM level 1 to 3 (P dysphagia scales to prevent aspiration pneumonia and malnutrition. A dysphagia program can lead to better communication within the stroke unit team to initiate the appropriate diagnostics and swallowing therapy as soon as possible. Copyright © 2012 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Risk factors predicting the outcome of salvage radiotherapy in patients with biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinoshita, Hidefumi; Shimizu, Yosuke; Mizowaki, Takashi

    2013-01-01

    Salvage radiotherapy is the only curative treatment for patients with prostate cancer showing biochemical progression after radical prostatectomy. In this study, we evaluated the clinicopathological parameters that influence the outcome of salvage radiotherapy. Medical records of 49 patients who underwent salvage radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy from 1997 to 2008 at the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, were retrospectively reviewed. Radiotherapy was carried out with 66 Gy on the prostatic bed. Biochemical progression-free survival after salvage radiotherapy at 2, 5 and 7 years was 51.0%, 42.2% and 42.2%, respectively. Significant parameters predicting biochemical progression after salvage radiotherapy by Cox regression analysis were prostatectomy Gleason score sum ≥8 (hazard ratio 0.08; 95% confidence interval 0.03-0.22; P=0.001), prostate-specific antigen nadir after radical prostatectomy ≥0.04 ng/mL (hazard ratio 0.30; 95% confidence interval 0.13-0.69; P=0.005) and negative surgical margin (hazard ratio 0.28; 95% confidence interval 0.12-0.70; P=0.006). When the patients were subgrouped by these risk factors, the 5-year progression-free survival rates after salvage radiotherapy were 77.8%, 50.0% and 6.7% in patients with 0, 1 and ≥2 predictors, respectively. In order to discriminate favorable candidates for salvage radiotherapy, Gleason score of prostatectomy, prostate-specific antigen nadir after prostatectomy and positive surgical margin represent independent predictors. Thus, progression-free survival might be more precisely predicted according to the presence/absence of these risk factors. The significance of this risk classification should be confirmed by large prospective studies. (author)

  14. Predicting low back pain outcome following rehabilitation for low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Andrew J; Dew, Angela; Bridger, Robert; Etherington, John; Kilminster, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Psychosocial factors are known to play a key role in determining the progress of back pain patients. However, it is not known whether these factors are applicable to military personnel, who tend to be fitter than the general population. The aim was to identify physical and psychological predictors in a prospective study of the outcome of back pain rehabilitation over 6 months and a longer follow-up time of between 15 and 32 months. Two hundred and fifty military personnel reporting for a residential rehabilitation programme completed a battery of physical and psychological tests. The physical tests included 800 m run time and the Biering-Sorensen test. The psychological/psychosocial measures included items on fear avoidance, self efficacy, anxiety and depression and occupational psychosocial factors such as job satisfaction. Self efficacy and 800 m run time predicted self-reported functional ability at 6 months and medical discharge/return to full fitness at 15–32 months. Patients with 800 m run times of more than 3 minutes 31 seconds had a four times greater chance of medical discharge from the Armed forces. Eight hundred metre run time and self-efficacy were independent predictors of both self-reported functional ability at 6 months and return to full fitness/medical discharge at 15–32 months. Self-efficacy also predicted 40% of the variance in the intensity of back pain and 10% of other non-back pain. Rehabilitation should include greater emphasis on physical fitness and on improving self-efficacy.

  15. Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

    2015-12-01

    Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, "spam" filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the "barrier to entry" for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods--logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)--and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

    2015-01-01

    Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, “spam” filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the “barrier to entry” for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

  17. Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, John [Medical Scientist Training Program, University of Pittsburgh-Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Schwartz, Russell [Department of Biological Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Flickinger, John [Departments of Radiation Oncology and Neurological Surgery, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States); Beriwal, Sushil, E-mail: beriwals@upmc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, “spam” filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the “barrier to entry” for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods—logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

  18. Distinct patterns of ALDH1A1 expression predict metastasis and poor outcome of colorectal carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sen-Lin; Zeng, Dong-Zu; Dong, Wei-Guo; Ding, Yan-Qing; Rao, Jun; Duan, Jiang-Jie; Liu, Qing; Yang, Jing; Zhan, Na; Liu, Ying; Hu, Qi-Ping; Zhang, Xia; Cui, You-Hong; Kung, Hsiang-Fu; Yu, Shi-Cang; Bian, Xiu-Wu

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Aldehyde dehydrogenase 1A1 (ALDH1A1) has been proposed as a candidate biomarker for colorectal carcinoma (CRC). However, the heterogeneity of its expression makes it difficult to predict the outcome of CRC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of this molecule in CRC. Methods and Results: In this study, we examined ALDH1A1 expression by immunohistochemistry including 406 cases of primary CRC with corresponding adjacent mucosa, with confirmation of real-time PCR and Western blotting. We found that the expression patterns of ALDH1A1 were heterogeneous in the CRC and corresponding adjacent tissues. We defined the ratio of ALDH1A1 level in adjacent mucosa to that in tumor tissues as RA/C and found that the capabilities of tumor invasion and metastasis in the tumors with RA/C < 1 were significantly higher than those with RA/C ≥ 1. Follow-up data showed the worse prognoses in the CRC patients with RA/C < 1. For understanding the underlying mechanism, the localization of β-catenin was detected in the CRC tissues with different patterns of ALDH1A1 expression from 221 patients and β-catenin was found preferentially expressed in cell nuclei of the tumors with RA/C < 1 and ALDH1A1high expression of HT29 cell line, indicating that nuclear translocation of β-catenin might contribute to the increased potentials of invasion and metastasis. Conclusion: Our results indicate that RA/C is a novel biomarker to reflect the distinct expression patterns of ALDH1A1 for predicting metastasis and prognosis of CRC. PMID:25031716

  19. Gene expression signatures predict outcome in non-muscle invasive bladder carcinoma - a multi-center validation study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lars Dyrskjøt; Zieger, Karsten; Real, Francisco X.

    2007-01-01

    and carcinoma in situ (CIS) and for predicting disease recurrence and progression. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We analyzed tumors from 404 patients diagnosed with bladder cancer in hospitals in Denmark, Sweden, England, Spain, and France using custom microarrays. Molecular classifications were compared with pathologic....... CONCLUSION: This multicenter validation study confirms in an independent series the clinical utility of molecular classifiers to predict the outcome of patients initially diagnosed with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This information may be useful to better guide patient treatment....

  20. A Tempest in A Ladle: The Debate about the Roles of General and Specific Abilities in Predicting Important Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy Johnson

    2018-01-01

    The debate about the roles of general and specific abilities in predicting important outcomes is a tempest in a ladle because we cannot measure abilities without also measuring skills. Skills always develop through exposure, are specific rather than general, and are executed using different strategies by different people, thus tapping into varied specific abilities. Relative predictive validities of measurement formats depend on the purpose: the more general and long-term the purpose, the bet...

  1. Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cihoric, Mirjana; Toft Tengberg, Line; Bay-Nielsen, Morten

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has nev...... emergency high-risk abdominal surgery. Despite its predictive value, the SAS cannot in its current version be recommended as a standalone prognostic tool in an emergency setting....

  2. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Sofin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1% of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9% dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  3. Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Functional