WorldWideScience

Sample records for gene-based outcome prediction

  1. Development and Validation of a Gene-Based Model for Outcome Prediction in Germ Cell Tumors Using a Combined Genomic and Expression Profiling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Korkola

    Full Text Available Germ Cell Tumors (GCT have a high cure rate, but we currently lack the ability to accurately identify the small subset of patients who will die from their disease. We used a combined genomic and expression profiling approach to identify genomic regions and underlying genes that are predictive of outcome in GCT patients. We performed array-based comparative genomic hybridization (CGH on 53 non-seminomatous GCTs (NSGCTs treated with cisplatin based chemotherapy and defined altered genomic regions using Circular Binary Segmentation. We identified 14 regions associated with two year disease-free survival (2yDFS and 16 regions associated with five year disease-specific survival (5yDSS. From corresponding expression data, we identified 101 probe sets that showed significant changes in expression. We built several models based on these differentially expressed genes, then tested them in an independent validation set of 54 NSGCTs. These predictive models correctly classified outcome in 64-79.6% of patients in the validation set, depending on the endpoint utilized. Survival analysis demonstrated a significant separation of patients with good versus poor predicted outcome when using a combined gene set model. Multivariate analysis using clinical risk classification with the combined gene model indicated that they were independent prognostic markers. This novel set of predictive genes from altered genomic regions is almost entirely independent of our previously identified set of predictive genes for patients with NSGCTs. These genes may aid in the identification of the small subset of patients who are at high risk of poor outcome.

  2. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  3. Neural network predicts sequence of TP53 gene based on DNA chip

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spicker, J.S.; Wikman, F.; Lu, M.L.;

    2002-01-01

    We have trained an artificial neural network to predict the sequence of the human TP53 tumor suppressor gene based on a p53 GeneChip. The trained neural network uses as input the fluorescence intensities of DNA hybridized to oligonucleotides on the surface of the chip and makes between zero...... and four errors in the predicted 1300 bp sequence when tested on wild-type TP53 sequence....

  4. Predicting outcome after appendicectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kell, M R

    2012-02-03

    AIM: To validate an intraoperative appendicitis severity score (IASS) and examine outcome following emergency appendectomy. METHODS: A prospective study was undertaken, enrolling consecutive patients undergoing emergency appendicectomy. Data were obtained independently on preoperative Alvarado scores, IASS (0-3: 0 no inflammation, 1 engorged appendix\\/no peritonitis, 2 peritoneal reaction\\/exudate or 3 evidence of perforation\\/abscess) and postoperative outcome parameters. RESULTS: There were 149 patients identified with a mean age of 20.7 years. There was no association between Alvarado score and length of hospital stay, septic complication, patient sex or duration of symptoms (p>0.05). IASS was found to be an independent risk factor for septic complication, wound infection (p<0.05) and length of hospital stay (p<0.001). There was no correlation between preoperative duration of symptoms or time until surgery and intraoperative score. CONCLUSIONS: This simple scoring system can identify patients more likely to suffer morbidity following emergency appendicectomy. Specifically, this system identifies patients who have a high risk of sepsis and therefore could be of use when comparing healthcare performance.

  5. Prediction of Outcome after Femoropopliteal Balloon Angioplasty by Intervascular Ultrasound

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroeder, Torben Veith; Vogt, Katja; Just, S.;

    1997-01-01

    original, intravascular ultrasound, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, peripheral arteries, plaquemorphology, prediction of outcome......original, intravascular ultrasound, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, peripheral arteries, plaquemorphology, prediction of outcome...

  6. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P; Diener, Ed

    2016-07-01

    Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as predictors of relationship, adjustment, self-worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilised multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Early adolescent positive affect predicted fewer relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, and greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers) and healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  7. Expectations predict chronic pain treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cormier, Stéphanie; Lavigne, Geneviève L; Choinière, Manon; Rainville, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests an association between patient pretreatment expectations and numerous health outcomes. However, it remains unclear if and how expectations relate to outcomes after treatments in multidisciplinary pain programs. The present study aims at investigating the predictive association between expectations and clinical outcomes in a large database of chronic pain patients. In this observational cohort study, participants were 2272 patients treated in one of 3 university-affiliated multidisciplinary pain treatment centers. All patients received personalized care, including medical, psychological, and/or physical interventions. Patient expectations regarding pain relief and improvements in quality of life and functioning were measured before the first visit to the pain centers and served as predictor variables. Changes in pain intensity, depressive symptoms, pain interference, and tendency to catastrophize, as well as satisfaction with pain treatment and global impressions of change at 6-month follow-up, were considered as treatment outcomes. Structural equation modeling analyses showed significant positive relationships between expectations and most clinical outcomes, and this association was largely mediated by patients' global impressions of change. Similar patterns of relationships between variables were also observed in various subgroups of patients based on sex, age, pain duration, and pain classification. Such results emphasize the relevance of patient expectations as a determinant of outcomes in multimodal pain treatment programs. Furthermore, the results suggest that superior clinical outcomes are observed in individuals who expect high positive outcomes as a result of treatment.

  8. Prediction of processing tomato peeling outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeling outcomes of processing tomatoes were predicted using multivariate analysis of Magnetic Resonance (MR) images. Tomatoes were obtained from a whole-peel production line. Each fruit was imaged using a 7 Tesla MR system, and a multivariate data set was created from 28 different images. After ...

  9. Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for applying prediction markets to corporate decision-making. The analysis is motivated by the recent surge of interest in markets as information aggregation devices and their potential use within firms. We characterize the amount of outcome manipulation that results...... in equilibrium and the impact of this manipulation on market prices...

  10. Predicting Clinical Outcomes Using Molecular Biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Harry B

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been an exponential increase in the number of biomarkers. At the last count, there were 768,259 papers indexed in PubMed.gov directly related to biomarkers. Although many of these papers claim to report clinically useful molecular biomarkers, embarrassingly few are currently in clinical use. It is suggested that a failure to properly understand, clinically assess, and utilize molecular biomarkers has prevented their widespread adoption in treatment, in comparative benefit analyses, and their integration into individualized patient outcome predictions for clinical decision-making and therapy. A straightforward, general approach to understanding how to predict clinical outcomes using risk, diagnostic, and prognostic molecular biomarkers is presented. In the future, molecular biomarkers will drive advances in risk, diagnosis, and prognosis, they will be the targets of powerful molecular therapies, and they will individualize and optimize therapy. Furthermore, clinical predictions based on molecular biomarkers will be displayed on the clinician's screen during the physician-patient interaction, they will be an integral part of physician-patient-shared decision-making, and they will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.

  11. Predicting outcomes in congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daodu, Oluwatomilayo; Brindle, Mary E

    2017-06-01

    Identification of CDH infant populations at high risk for mortality postnatally may help to develop targeted care strategies, guide discussions surrounding palliation and contribute to standardizing reporting and benchmarking, so that care strategies at different centers can be compared. Clinical prediction rules are evidence-based tools that combine multiple predictors to estimate the probability that a particular outcome in an individual patient will occur. In CDH, a suitable clinical prediction rule can stratify high- and low-risk populations and provide the ability to tailor management strategies based on severity. The ideal prediction tool for infants born with CDH would be validated in a large population, generalizable, easily applied in a clinical setting and would clearly discriminate patients at the highest and lowest risk of death. To date, 4 postnatal major clinical prediction rules have been published and validated in the North American CDH population. These models contain variables such as birth weight, Apgar score, blood gases, as well as measures of pulmonary hypertension, and associated anomalies. In an era of standardized care plans and population-based strategies, the appropriate selection and application of a generalizable tool to provide an opportunity for benchmarking, policy creation, and centralizing the care of high-risk populations. A well-designed clinical prediction tool remains the most practical and expedient way to achieve these goals. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Deasy, Joseph O [Washington University, Saint Louis, MO (United States); Lindsay, Patricia E; Hope, Andrew J [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2009-09-21

    Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among

  13. Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques*

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Lindsay, Patricia E; Hope, Andrew J; Deasy, Joseph O

    2013-01-01

    Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for ‘generalizabilty’ validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model

  14. Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; Hope, Andrew J.; Deasy, Joseph O.

    2009-09-01

    Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model

  15. Predicting Dental Caries Outcomes in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divaris, K.

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, unprecedented gains in the understanding of the biology and mechanisms underlying human health and disease have been made. In the domain of oral health, although much remains to be learned, the complex interactions between different systems in play have begun to unravel: host genome, oral microbiome with its transcriptome, proteome and metabolome, and more distal influences, including relevant behaviors and environmental exposures. A reasonable expectation is that this emerging body of knowledge can help improve the oral health and optimize care for individuals and populations. These goals are articulated by the National Institutes of Health as “precision medicine” and the elimination of health disparities. Key processes in these efforts are the discovery of causal factors or mechanistic pathways and the identification of individuals or population segments that are most likely to develop (any or severe forms of) oral disease. This article critically reviews the fundamental concepts of risk assessment and outcome prediction, as they relate to early childhood caries (ECC)—a common complex disease with significant negative impacts on children, their families, and the health system. The article highlights recent work and advances in methods available to estimate caries risk and derive person-level caries propensities. It further discusses the reasons for their limited utility in predicting individual ECC outcomes and informing clinical decision making. Critical issues identified include the misconception of defining dental caries as a tooth or surface-level condition versus a person-level disease; the fallacy of applying population-level parameters to individuals, termed privatization of risk; and the inadequacy of using frequentist versus Bayesian modeling approaches to derive individual disease propensity estimates. The article concludes with the notion that accurate caries risk assessment at the population level and “precision dentistry

  16. Neonatal Neurobehavior Predicts Medical and Behavioral Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Bann, C.; Lester, B.; Tronick, E.; Abhik, D.; Lagasse, L.; Bauer, C.; Shankaran, S.; Bada, H.

    2010-01-01

    Objective This study examined the NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) as a predictor of negative medical and behavioral findings one month to 4½ years of age. Methods . The sample included 1248 mother-infant dyads (42% born <37 weeks’ gestational age) participating in a longitudinal study of the effects of prenatal substance exposure on child development. Mothers were recruited at 4 urban university-based centers and were mostly African-American and on public assistance. At 1 month of age, infants were tested with the NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS). Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) was carried out on NNNS summary scales to identify discrete behavioral profiles. The validity of the NNNS was examined using logistic regression to predict prenatal drug exposure, medical and developmental outcomes through 4½ years of age including adjustment for gestational age and socioeconomic status (SES). Results . Five discrete behavioral profiles were reliably identified with the most extreme negative profile found in 5.8% of the infants. The profiles showed statistically significant associations with prenatal drug exposure, gestational age and birthweight, head ultrasound, neurological and brain disease findings and abnormal scores on measures of behavior problems, school readiness and IQ through 4½ years of age. Conclusions The NNNS may be useful to identify infant behavioral needs to be targeted in well-baby pediatric care, as well as for referrals to community based early intervention services. PMID:19969621

  17. Outcome of corneal transplantation: can a prioritisation system predict outcome?

    OpenAIRE

    Saunders, Patrick P R; Sibley, Lyn M; Richards, John S F; Simon P. Holland; Chow, Debbie L; Courtright, Paul

    2002-01-01

    Background: In 1995 a prioritisation system for patients waiting for corneal transplantation surgery was adopted in British Columbia. In 1997 a routine outcome assessment programme was adopted. The authors sought to determine the outcomes of corneal transplant surgery in the province of British Columbia and to evaluate if they were associated with waiting list prioritisation.

  18. Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Iniesta, R.; Malki, K.; Maier, W; Rietschel, M.; Mors, O; Hauser, J; Henigsberg, N.; Dernovsek, M. Z.; Souery, D.; Stahl, D.; Dobson, R.; Aitchison, K. J.; Farmer, A; Lewis, C.M.; McGuffin, P.

    2016-01-01

    The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remissio...

  19. Comparing Predictions and Outcomes : Theory and Application to Income Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das, J.W.M.; Dominitz, J.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    1997-01-01

    Household surveys often elicit respondents' intentions or predictions of future outcomes. The survey questions may ask respondents to choose among a selection of (ordered) response categories. If panel data or repeated cross-sections are available, predictions may be compared with realized outcomes.

  20. Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

    2016-07-01

    The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug.

  1. Prediction of outcome in patients with low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Andersen, Cathrine Hedegaard; Hansen, Martin Mørk;

    2016-01-01

    The clinical course of low back pain (LBP) cannot be accurately predicted by existing prediction tools. Therefore clinicians rely largely on their experience and clinical judgement. The objectives of this study were to investigate 1) which patient characteristics were associated with chiropractors...... at baseline and related to all outcomes. The accuracies of predictions made by clinicians (AUC .58-.63) and the SBT (AUC .50-.61) were comparable and low. No substantial increase in the predictive capability was achieved by combining clinicians' expectations and the SBT. In conclusion, chiropractors......' predictions were associated with well-established prognostic factors but not simply a product of these. Chiropractors were able to predict differences in outcome on a group level, but prediction of individual patients' outcomes were inaccurate and not substantially improved by the SBT. It is worth...

  2. Diffusion changes predict cognitive and functional outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jokinen, Hanna; Schmidt, Reinhold; Ropele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    A study was undertaken to determine whether diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) abnormalities in normal-appearing brain tissue (NABT) and in white matter hyperintensities (WMH) predict longitudinal cognitive decline and disability in older individuals independently of the concomitant magnetic...

  3. Predicting unfavourable outcome in herpetic meningoencephalitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, Hakan; Cag, Yasemin; Karaahmetoglu, Gokhan

    BACKGROUND: Herpetic meningoencephalitis is the most frequent form of sporadic fatal encephalitis in the world and accounts for 10- 20% of all viral encephalitides. There were studies assessing the outcomes particularly by comparing the efficacies of antiviral drugs in the past. To the best of our...

  4. Predicting School Referenda Outcomes: Answers from Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, Corliss

    1999-01-01

    Uses ordinary least-squares multivariate regression analysis to determine if jurisdictional types vary in their willingness to increase taxation for schools, employing 892 education fund referenda conducted in Illinois from 1981 to 1989. Outcomes do differ by jurisdiction type. The strongest predictor is willingness to pay for higher taxes. (29…

  5. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  6. Looking for students' personal characteristics predicting study outcome.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theo Bergen; Dr. Cyrille A.C. Van Bragt; Dr. A. Bakx; Marcel Croon

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The central goal of this study is to clarify to what degree former education and students' personal characteristics (the 'Big Five personality characteristics', personal orientations on learning and students' study approach) may predict study outcome (required credits and study

  7. Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, Linda

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: After cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstone disease 20%-30% of the patients continue to have abdominal pain. The aim of this study was to investigate whether preoperative variables could predict the symptomatic outcome after cholecystectomy. METHODS: One hundred and two patients...... and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...

  8. Predicting unfavourable outcome in herpetic meningoencephalitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lykke; Johansen, Isik Somuncu

    . The interrelation between the elapsed time since the onset of symptoms to anti-viral treatment and unfavorable outcome is presented in the figure. CONCLUSION: Advancing age, lower GCS scores, delayed start of antivirals exceeding one week in particular, and new onset of convulsions seem to increase unfavorable...... days 7 days 3.75 1.72 8.15 0.001 New onset convulsion [3] 1.61 0.93 2.76 0.088 constant 1.08 0.27 4.43 0.910 [1] OR, odds ratio [2] Elapsed time between unset of symptoms and administration of anti-viral treatment [3] Newly unset convulsion before hospital admission...

  9. Predicting Future Clinical Adjustment from Treatment Outcome and Process Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, G. R.; Forgatch, Marion S.

    1995-01-01

    Issues related to the use of outcome and process data from the treatment of antisocial children to predict future childhood adjustment were examined through a study of 69 children. Data supported the hypothesis that measures of processes thought to produce changes in child behavior would serve to predict future adjustment. (SLD)

  10. Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, A Ross; Fleming, Stephen M; Glimcher, Paul W

    2016-03-01

    Positive mood can affect a person's tendency to gamble, possibly because positive mood fosters unrealistic optimism. At the same time, unexpected positive outcomes, often called prediction errors, influence mood. However, a linkage between positive prediction errors-the difference between expected and obtained outcomes-and consequent risk taking has yet to be demonstrated. Using a large data set of New York City lottery gambling and a model inspired by computational accounts of reward learning, we found that people gamble more when incidental outcomes in the environment (e.g., local sporting events and sunshine) are better than expected. When local sports teams performed better than expected, or a sunny day followed a streak of cloudy days, residents gambled more. The observed relationship between prediction errors and gambling was ubiquitous across the city's socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods and was specific to sports and weather events occurring locally in New York City. Our results suggest that unexpected but incidental positive outcomes influence risk taking.

  11. Using predictive analytics and big data to optimize pharmaceutical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Inmaculada; Zhang, Yuting

    2017-09-15

    The steps involved, the resources needed, and the challenges associated with applying predictive analytics in healthcare are described, with a review of successful applications of predictive analytics in implementing population health management interventions that target medication-related patient outcomes. In healthcare, the term big data typically refers to large quantities of electronic health record, administrative claims, and clinical trial data as well as data collected from smartphone applications, wearable devices, social media, and personal genomics services; predictive analytics refers to innovative methods of analysis developed to overcome challenges associated with big data, including a variety of statistical techniques ranging from predictive modeling to machine learning to data mining. Predictive analytics using big data have been applied successfully in several areas of medication management, such as in the identification of complex patients or those at highest risk for medication noncompliance or adverse effects. Because predictive analytics can be used in predicting different outcomes, they can provide pharmacists with a better understanding of the risks for specific medication-related problems that each patient faces. This information will enable pharmacists to deliver interventions tailored to patients' needs. In order to take full advantage of these benefits, however, clinicians will have to understand the basics of big data and predictive analytics. Predictive analytics that leverage big data will become an indispensable tool for clinicians in mapping interventions and improving patient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Action-outcome learning and prediction shape the window of simultaneity of audiovisual outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desantis, Andrea; Haggard, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    To form a coherent representation of the objects around us, the brain must group the different sensory features composing these objects. Here, we investigated whether actions contribute in this grouping process. In particular, we assessed whether action-outcome learning and prediction contribute to audiovisual temporal binding. Participants were presented with two audiovisual pairs: one pair was triggered by a left action, and the other by a right action. In a later test phase, the audio and visual components of these pairs were presented at different onset times. Participants judged whether they were simultaneous or not. To assess the role of action-outcome prediction on audiovisual simultaneity, each action triggered either the same audiovisual pair as in the learning phase ('predicted' pair), or the pair that had previously been associated with the other action ('unpredicted' pair). We found the time window within which auditory and visual events appeared simultaneous increased for predicted compared to unpredicted pairs. However, no change in audiovisual simultaneity was observed when audiovisual pairs followed visual cues, rather than voluntary actions. This suggests that only action-outcome learning promotes temporal grouping of audio and visual effects. In a second experiment we observed that changes in audiovisual simultaneity do not only depend on our ability to predict what outcomes our actions generate, but also on learning the delay between the action and the multisensory outcome. When participants learned that the delay between action and audiovisual pair was variable, the window of audiovisual simultaneity for predicted pairs increased, relative to a fixed action-outcome pair delay. This suggests that participants learn action-based predictions of audiovisual outcome, and adapt their temporal perception of outcome events based on such predictions.

  13. Prediction of antiepileptic drug treatment outcomes using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colic, Sinisa; Wither, Robert G.; Lang, Min; Zhang, Liang; Eubanks, James H.; Bardakjian, Berj L.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Antiepileptic drug (AED) treatments produce inconsistent outcomes, often necessitating patients to go through several drug trials until a successful treatment can be found. This study proposes the use of machine learning techniques to predict epilepsy treatment outcomes of commonly used AEDs. Approach. Machine learning algorithms were trained and evaluated using features obtained from intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recordings of the epileptiform discharges observed in Mecp2-deficient mouse model of the Rett Syndrome. Previous work have linked the presence of cross-frequency coupling (I CFC) of the delta (2-5 Hz) rhythm with the fast ripple (400-600 Hz) rhythm in epileptiform discharges. Using the I CFC to label post-treatment outcomes we compared support vector machines (SVMs) and random forest (RF) machine learning classifiers for providing likelihood scores of successful treatment outcomes. Main results. (a) There was heterogeneity in AED treatment outcomes, (b) machine learning techniques could be used to rank the efficacy of AEDs by estimating likelihood scores for successful treatment outcome, (c) I CFC features yielded the most effective a priori identification of appropriate AED treatment, and (d) both classifiers performed comparably. Significance. Machine learning approaches yielded predictions of successful drug treatment outcomes which in turn could reduce the burdens of drug trials and lead to substantial improvements in patient quality of life.

  14. Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Mai

    Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

  15. Prediction for Major Adverse Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Three Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hung Hsieh

    2007-09-01

    Conclusion: The Parsonnet score performed as well as the logistic regression models in predicting major adverse outcomes. The Parsonnet score appears to be a very suitable model for clinicians to use in risk stratification of cardiac surgery.

  16. Learning Approaches, Demographic Factors to Predict Academic Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Tuan Minh

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to predict academic outcome in math and math-related subjects using learning approaches and demographic factors. Design/Methodology/Approach: ASSIST was used as the instrumentation to measure learning approaches. The study was conducted in the International University of Vietnam with 616 participants. An…

  17. Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, Linda

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: After cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstone disease 20%-30% of the patients continue to have abdominal pain. The aim of this study was to investigate whether preoperative variables could predict the symptomatic outcome after cholecystectomy. METHODS: One hundred and two patients w...

  18. Individual Factors Predicting Mental Health Court Diversion Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhaaff, Ashley; Scott, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    Objective: This study examined which individual factors predict mental health court diversion outcome among a sample of persons with mental illness participating in a postcharge diversion program. Method: The study employed secondary analysis of existing program records for 419 persons with mental illness in a court diversion program. Results:…

  19. Estimation of brain network ictogenicity predicts outcome from epilepsy surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodfellow, M.; Rummel, C.; Abela, E.; Richardson, M. P.; Schindler, K.; Terry, J. R.

    2016-07-01

    Surgery is a valuable option for pharmacologically intractable epilepsy. However, significant post-operative improvements are not always attained. This is due in part to our incomplete understanding of the seizure generating (ictogenic) capabilities of brain networks. Here we introduce an in silico, model-based framework to study the effects of surgery within ictogenic brain networks. We find that factors conventionally determining the region of tissue to resect, such as the location of focal brain lesions or the presence of epileptiform rhythms, do not necessarily predict the best resection strategy. We validate our framework by analysing electrocorticogram (ECoG) recordings from patients who have undergone epilepsy surgery. We find that when post-operative outcome is good, model predictions for optimal strategies align better with the actual surgery undertaken than when post-operative outcome is poor. Crucially, this allows the prediction of optimal surgical strategies and the provision of quantitative prognoses for patients undergoing epilepsy surgery.

  20. Relative size predicts competitive outcome through 2 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liow, Lee Hsiang; Di Martino, Emanuela; Krzeminska, Malgorzata; Ramsfjell, Mali; Rust, Seabourne; Taylor, Paul D; Voje, Kjetil L

    2017-08-01

    Competition is an important biotic interaction that influences survival and reproduction. While competition on ecological timescales has received great attention, little is known about competition on evolutionary timescales. Do competitive abilities change over hundreds of thousands to millions of years? Can we predict competitive outcomes using phenotypic traits? How much do traits that confer competitive advantage and competitive outcomes change? Here we show, using communities of encrusting marine bryozoans spanning more than 2 million years, that size is a significant determinant of overgrowth outcomes: colonies with larger zooids tend to overgrow colonies with smaller zooids. We also detected temporally coordinated changes in average zooid sizes, suggesting that different species responded to a common external driver. Although species-specific average zooid sizes change over evolutionary timescales, species-specific competitive abilities seem relatively stable, suggesting that traits other than zooid size also control overgrowth outcomes and/or that evolutionary constraints are involved. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Prediction of Functional Outcome in Axonal Guillain-Barre Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Objective To identify the factors that could predict the functional outcome in patients with the axonal type of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). Methods Two hundred and two GBS patients admitted to our university hospital between 2003 and 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. We defined a good outcome as being "able to walk independently at 1 month after onset" and a poor outcome as being "unable to walk independently at 1 month after onset". We evaluated the factors that differed between the good and poor outcome groups. Results Twenty-four patients were classified into the acute motor axonal neuropathy type. There was a statistically significant difference between the good and poor outcome groups in terms of the GBS disability score at admission, and GBS disability score and Medical Research Council sum score at 1 month after admission. In an electrophysiologic analysis, the good outcome group showed greater amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial nerve compound muscle action potentials (CMAP) and greater amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal sensory nerve action potentials (SNAP) than the poor outcome group. Conclusion A lower GBS disability score at admission, high amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial CMAPs, and high amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal SNAPs were associated with being able to walk at 1 month in patients with axonal GBS. PMID:27446785

  2. Borderline personality disorder features predict negative outcomes 2 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagge, Courtney; Nickell, Angela; Stepp, Stephanie; Durrett, Christine; Jackson, Kristina; Trull, Timothy J

    2004-05-01

    In a sample of 351 young adults, the authors assessed whether borderline personality disorder (BPD) features prospectively predicted negative outcomes (poorer academic achievement and social maladjustment) over the subsequent 2 years, over and above gender and both Axis I and Axis II psychopathology. Borderline traits were significantly related to these outcomes, with impulsivity and affective instability the most highly associated. The present findings suggest that the impulsivity and affective instability associated with BPD leads to impairment in relating well with others, in meeting social role obligations, and in academic or occupational achievement. Therefore, these may be especially important features to target in interventions for BPD.

  3. Predictable Outcomes with Porcelain Laminate Veneers: A Clinical Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Welson; Teixeira, Marcelo Lucchesi; Costa, Priscila Paganini; Jorge, Mônica Zacharias; Tiossi, Rodrigo

    2016-06-01

    This clinical report describes how to achieve predictable outcomes for anterior teeth esthetic restorations with porcelain laminate veneers by associating the digital planning and design of the restoration with interim restorations. The previous digital smile design of the restoration eliminates the communication barrier with the patient and assists the clinician throughout patient treatment. Interim restorations (diagnostic mock-ups) further enhance communication with the patient and prevent unnecessary tooth reduction for conservative tooth preparation. Adequate communication between patient and clinician contributes to successful definitive restorations and patient satisfaction with the final esthetic outcome.

  4. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdams, Sean; Shukla, Aseem R

    2010-10-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  5. Perceived Masculinity Predicts U.S. Supreme Court Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Daniel; Halberstam, Yosh; Yu, Alan C L

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentence of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer's speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States.

  6. Predicting outcome in a postacute stroke rehabilitation programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bragt, Peter J; van Ginneken, Berbke T; Westendorp, Tessa; Heijenbrok-Kal, Majanka H; Wijffels, Markus P; Ribbers, Gerard M

    2014-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate and predict outcome as part of routine quality assessment of an inpatient stroke rehabilitation programme. By relating functional outcome to patient characteristics, including variables from the quality of life domain, we aim to find a set of variables that can be useful for prognosis, stratification and programme improvement. Data were collected, before and after rehabilitation, from a prospective quality registration database. Included were 250 patients in inpatient stroke rehabilitation after sustaining a first or recurrent ischemic or haemorrhagic stroke. Functional status was measured with the Barthel Index and the Academic Medical Centre Linear Disability Score. Health-related quality of life (HrQoL) was measured with the COOP/WONCA and the Nottingham Health Profile. Significant improvements were found on all outcome measures. A lower functional admission score, older age, more severe stroke, more pain and more negative emotional reactions on admission were found to be independent predictors of a lower outcome score, explaining 39.5% of its variance. Subjective (HrQoL) factors such as negative emotion and pain have an adverse effect on outcome of stroke rehabilitation, in addition to stroke severity, age and functional status at admission. These factors need to be taken into account in screening, clinical decision making and treatment design.

  7. Does obesity predict functional outcome in the dysvascular amputee?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbaugh, Corey A; Taylor, Spence M; Kalbaugh, Brooke A; Halliday, Matthew; Daniel, Grace; Cass, Anna L; Blackhurst, Dawn W; Cull, David L; Langan, Eugene M; Carsten, Christopher G; York, John W; Snyder, Bruce A; Youkey, Jerry R

    2006-08-01

    Limited information is available concerning the effects of obesity on the functional outcomes of patients requiring major lower limb amputation because of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive ability of body mass index (BMI) to determine functional outcome in the dysvascular amputee. To do this, 434 consecutive patients (mean age, 65.8 +/- 13.3, 59% male, 71.4% diabetic) undergoing major limb amputation (225 below-knee amputation, 27 through-knee amputation, 132 above-knee amputation, and 50 bilateral) as a complication of PAD from January 1998 through May 2004 were analyzed according to preoperative BMI. BMI was classified according to the four-group Center for Disease Control system: underweight, 0 to 18.4 kg/m2; normal, 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2; overweight, 25 to 29.9 kg/m2; and obese, > or = 30 kg/m2. Outcome parameters measured included prosthetic usage, maintenance of ambulation, survival, and maintenance of independent living status. The chi2 test for association was used to examine prosthesis wear. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to assess maintenance of ambulation, survival, and maintenance of independent living status. Multivariate analysis using the multiple logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to predict variables independently associated with prosthetic use and ambulation, survival, and independence, respectively. Overall prosthetic usage and 36-month ambulation, survival, and independent living status for the entire cohort was 48.6 per cent, 42.8 per cent, 48.1 per cent, 72.3 per cent, and for patients with normal BMI was 41.5 per cent, 37.4 per cent, 45.6 per cent, and 69.5 per cent, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in outcomes for overweight patients (59.2%, 50.7%, 52.5%, and 75%) or obese patients (51.8%, 46.2%, 49.7%, and 75%) when compared with normal patients. Although there were significantly poorer outcomes for underweight

  8. Predictive efficacy of radioisotope voiding cystography for renal outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Seok Ki; Lee, Dong Soo; Kim, Kwang Myeung; Choi, Whang; Chung, June Key; Lee, Myung Chul [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-04-01

    As vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) could lead to renal functional deterioration when combined with urinary tract infection, we need to decide whether operative anti-reflux treatment should be performed at the time of diagnosis of VUR. Predictive value of radioisotope voiding cystography (RIVCG) for renal outcome was tested. In 35 children (18 males, 17 females), radiologic voiding cystoure-thrography (VCU), RIVCG and DMSA scan were performed. Change in renal function was evaluated using the follow-up DMSA scan, ultrasonography, and clinical information. Discriminant analysis was performed using individual or integrated variables such as reflux amount and extent at each phase of voiding on RIVCG, in addition to age, gender and cortical defect on DMSA scan at the time of diagnosis. Discriminant function was composed and its performance was examined. Reflux extent at the filling phase and reflux amount and extent at postvoiding phase had a significant prognostic value. Total reflux amount was a composite variable to predict prognosis. Discriminant function composed of reflux extent at the filling phase and reflux amount and extent at postvoiding phase showed better positive predictive value and specificity than conventional reflux grading. RIVCG could predict renal outcome by disclosing characteristic reflux pattern during various voiding phases.

  9. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D; Black, Jessica M; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H; Reiss, Allan L; Gabrieli, John D E

    2011-01-04

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures.

  10. Neural systems predicting long-term outcome in dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoeft, Fumiko; McCandliss, Bruce D.; Black, Jessica M.; Gantman, Alexander; Zakerani, Nahal; Hulme, Charles; Lyytinen, Heikki; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Glover, Gary H.; Reiss, Allan L.; Gabrieli, John D. E.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals with developmental dyslexia vary in their ability to improve reading skills, but the brain basis for improvement remains largely unknown. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study over 2.5 y in children with dyslexia (n = 25) or without dyslexia (n = 20) to discover whether initial behavioral or brain measures, including functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), can predict future long-term reading gains in dyslexia. No behavioral measure, including widely used and standardized reading and language tests, reliably predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Greater right prefrontal activation during a reading task that demanded phonological awareness and right superior longitudinal fasciculus (including arcuate fasciculus) white-matter organization significantly predicted future reading gains in dyslexia. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of these two brain measures, using linear support vector machine (SVM) and cross-validation, predicted significantly above chance (72% accuracy) which particular child would or would not improve reading skills (behavioral measures were at chance). MVPA of whole-brain activation pattern during phonological processing predicted which children with dyslexia would improve reading skills 2.5 y later with >90% accuracy. These findings identify right prefrontal brain mechanisms that may be critical for reading improvement in dyslexia and that may differ from typical reading development. Brain measures that predict future behavioral outcomes (neuroprognosis) may be more accurate, in some cases, than available behavioral measures. PMID:21173250

  11. A new nomogram to predict pathologic outcome following radical prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Crippa

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To develop a preoperative nomogram to predict pathologic outcome in patients submitted to radical prostatectomy for clinical localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine hundred and sixty patients with clinical stage T1 and T2 prostate cancer were evaluated following radical prostatectomy, and 898 were included in the study. Following a multivariate analysis, nomograms were developed incorporating serum PSA, biopsy Gleason score, and percentage of positive biopsy cores in order to predict the risks of extraprostatic tumor extension, and seminal vesicle involvement. RESULTS: In univariate analysis there was a significant association between percentage of positive biopsy cores (p < 0.001, serum PSA (p = 0.001 and biopsy Gleason score (p < 0.001 with extraprostatic tumor extension. A similar pathologic outcome was seen among tumors with Gleason score 7, and Gleason score 8 to 10. In multivariate analysis, the 3 preoperative variables showed independent significance to predict tumor extension. This allowed the development of nomogram-1 (using Gleason scores in 3 categories - 2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10 and nomogram-2 (using Gleason scores in 2 categories - 2 to 6 and 7 to 10 to predict disease extension based on these 3 parameters. In the validation analysis, 87% and 91.1% of the time the nomograms-1 and 2, correctly predicted the probability of a pathological stage to within 10% respectively. CONCLUSION: Incorporating percent of positive biopsy cores to a nomogram that includes preoperative serum PSA and biopsy Gleason score, can accurately predict the presence of extraprostatic disease extension in patients with clinical localized prostate cancer.

  12. Writing abilities longitudinally predict academic outcomes of adolescents with ADHD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molitor, Stephen J; Langberg, Joshua M; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Evans, Steven W

    2016-09-01

    Students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience a host of negative academic outcomes, and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression, but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear whether written expression abilities uniquely contribute to the academic functioning of students with ADHD. The current study included a sample of 104 middle school students diagnosed with ADHD (Grades 6-8). Participants were followed longitudinally to evaluate whether written expression abilities at baseline predicted student grade point average (GPA) and parent ratings of academic impairment 18 months later, after controlling for reading ability and additional relevant covariates. Written expression abilities longitudinally predicted both academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD and oppositional defiant disorder symptoms, medication use, reading ability, and baseline values of GPA and parent-rated academic impairment. Follow-up analyses revealed that no single aspect of written expression was demonstrably more impactful on academic outcomes than the others, suggesting that writing as an entire process should be the focus of intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Spinal meningiomas: clinicoradiological factors predicting recurrence and functional outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Tanmoy K; Bir, Shyamal C; Patra, Devi Prasad; Kalakoti, Piyush; Guthikonda, Bharat; Nanda, Anil

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Spinal meningiomas are benign tumors with a wide spectrum of clinical and radiological features at presentation. The authors analyzed multiple clinicoradiological factors to predict recurrence and functional outcome in a cohort with a mean follow-up of more than 4 years. The authors also discuss the results of clinical studies regarding spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. METHODS The authors retrospectively reviewed the clinical and radiological details of patients who underwent surgery for spinal tumors between 2001 and 2015 that were histopathologically confirmed as meningiomas. Demographic parameters, such as age, sex, race, and association with neurofibromatosis Type 2, were considered. Radiological parameters, such as tumor size, signal changes of spinal cord, spinal level, number of levels, location of tumor attachment, shape of tumor, and presence of dural tail/calcification, were noted. These factors were analyzed to predict recurrence and functional outcome. Furthermore, a pooled analysis was performed from 13 reports of spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. RESULTS A total of 38 patients were included in this study. Male sex and tumors with radiological evidence of a dural tail were associated with an increased risk of recurrence at a mean follow-up of 51.2 months. Ventral or ventrolateral location, large tumors, T2 cord signal changes, and poor preoperative functional status were associated with poor functional outcome at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Spine surgeons must be aware of the natural history and risk factors of spinal meningiomas to establish a prognosis for their patients.

  14. Cluster analysis as a prediction tool for pregnancy outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjari, Ines; Kenjerić, Daniela; Šolić, Krešimir; Mandić, Milena L

    2015-03-01

    Considering specific physiology changes during gestation and thinking of pregnancy as a "critical window", classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy can be considered as crucial. The paper demonstrates the use of a method based on an approach from intelligent data mining, cluster analysis. Cluster analysis method is a statistical method which makes possible to group individuals based on sets of identifying variables. The method was chosen in order to determine possibility for classification of pregnant women at early pregnancy to analyze unknown correlations between different variables so that the certain outcomes could be predicted. 222 pregnant women from two general obstetric offices' were recruited. The main orient was set on characteristics of these pregnant women: their age, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and haemoglobin value. Cluster analysis gained a 94.1% classification accuracy rate with three branch- es or groups of pregnant women showing statistically significant correlations with pregnancy outcomes. The results are showing that pregnant women both of older age and higher pre-pregnancy BMI have a significantly higher incidence of delivering baby of higher birth weight but they gain significantly less weight during pregnancy. Their babies are also longer, and these women have significantly higher probability for complications during pregnancy (gestosis) and higher probability of induced or caesarean delivery. We can conclude that the cluster analysis method can appropriately classify pregnant women at early pregnancy to predict certain outcomes.

  15. Physical and psychological factors predict outcome following whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, Michele; Jull, Gwendolen; Vicenzino, Bill; Kenardy, Justin; Darnell, Ross

    2005-03-01

    Predictors of outcome following whiplash injury are limited to socio-demographic and symptomatic factors, which are not readily amenable to secondary and tertiary intervention. This prospective study investigated the predictive capacity of early measures of physical and psychological impairment on pain and disability 6 months following whiplash injury. Motor function (ROM; kinaesthetic sense; activity of the superficial neck flexors (EMG) during cranio-cervical flexion), quantitative sensory testing (pressure, thermal pain thresholds, brachial plexus provocation test), sympathetic vasoconstrictor responses and psychological distress (GHQ-28, TSK, IES) were measured in 76 acute whiplash participants. The outcome measure was Neck Disability Index scores at 6 months. Stepwise regression analysis was used to predict the final NDI score. Logistic regression analyses predicted membership to one of the three groups based on final NDI scores (pain and disability, >30 moderate/severe pain and disability). Higher initial NDI score (1.007-1.12), older age (1.03-1.23), cold hyperalgesia (1.05-1.58), and acute post-traumatic stress (1.03-1.2) predicted membership to the moderate/severe group. Additional variables associated with higher NDI scores at 6 months on stepwise regression analysis were: ROM loss and diminished sympathetic reactivity. Higher initial NDI score (1.03-1.28), greater psychological distress (GHQ-28) (1.04-1.28) and decreased ROM (1.03-1.25) predicted subjects with persistent milder symptoms from those who fully recovered. These results demonstrate that both physical and psychological factors play a role in recovery or non-recovery from whiplash injury. This may assist in the development of more relevant treatment methods for acute whiplash.

  16. Assessing and predicting successful tube placement outcomes in ALS patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beggs, Kathleen; Choi, Marcia; Travlos, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    This study reviews feeding tube placement outcomes in 69 ALS outpatients seen at an outpatient interdisciplinary ALS clinic in British Columbia, Canada. The objective was to determine at which point the risks outweigh the benefits of tube placement by reviewing outcomes against parameters of respiratory function, nutritional status and speech and swallowing deterioration. The study was a retrospective review of tube placements between January 2000 and 2005, analysing data on respiratory function (forced vital capacity and respiratory status), weight change from usual body weight (UBW) and speech/swallowing deterioration using ALS Severity Score ratings (Hillel et al., 1989) at time of tube placement. Results show a statistically significant association between nutritional status and successful tube placement outcomes (p=0.003), and none between respiratory status, speech/swallowing variables, or number of deteriorated variables in each patient. Study findings were impacted by lack of available respiratory data. The only study variable that predicted successful tube placement outcome was a body weight greater than or equal to 74% UBW at time of tube placement. In the absence of access to respiratory testing, the relatively simple assessment of weight may assist patients and caregivers in appropriate decisions around tube placement.

  17. Do illness perceptions predict health outcomes in primary care patients?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frostholm, Lisbeth; Oernboel, Eva; Christensen, Kaj S

    2007-01-01

    patients, (2) patients without chronic disorders presenting physical disease, and (3) patients presenting medically unexplained symptoms (MUS). RESULTS: Negative illness perceptions were associated with poor physical and mental health at baseline. They most strongly predicted changes in health status......OBJECTIVE: Little is known about whether illness perceptions affect health outcomes in primary care patients. The aim of this study was to examine if patients' illness perceptions were associated with their self-rated health in a 2-year follow-up period. METHODS: One thousand seven hundred eighty......-five primary care patients presenting a new or recurrent health problem completed an adapted version of the illness perception questionnaire and the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) at baseline and 3, 12, and 24 months' follow-up. Linear regressions were performed for (1) all...

  18. How electrodiagnosis predicts clinical outcome of focal peripheral nerve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Lawrence R

    2015-09-01

    This article reviews the electrodiagnostic (EDX) prognostic factors for focal traumatic and nontraumatic peripheral nerve injuries. Referring physicians and patients often benefit from general and nerve-specific prognostic information from the EDX consultant. Knowing the probable outcome from a nerve injury allows the referring physician to choose the best treatment options for his/her patients. Nerve injuries are variable in their mechanism, location, and pathophysiology. The general effects of the injuries on nerve and muscle are well known, but more research is needed for nerve-specific information. Several factors currently known to influence prognosis include: nature of the nerve trauma, amount of axon loss, recruitment in muscles supplied by the nerve, the extent of demyelination, and the distance to reinnervate functional muscles. This article reviews these general concepts and also nerve-specific EDX measures that predict outcome after focal neuropathies.

  19. Predicting stroke outcome using DCE-CT measured blood velocity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterbroek, Jaap; Bennink, Edwin; Dankbaar, Jan Willem; Horsch, Alexander D.; Viergever, Max A.; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; de Jong, Hugo W. A. M.

    2015-03-01

    CT plays an important role in the diagnosis of acute stroke patients. Dynamic contrast enhanced CT (DCE-CT) can estimate local tissue perfusion and extent of ischemia. However, hemodynamic information of the large intracranial vessels may also be obtained from DCE-CT data and may contain valuable diagnostic information. We describe a novel method to estimate intravascular blood velocity (IBV) in large cerebral vessels using DCE-CT data, which may be useful to help predict stroke outcome. DCE-CT scans from 34 patients with isolated M1 occlusions were included from a large prospective multi-center cohort study of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Gaussians fitted to the intravascular data yielded the time-to-peak (TTP) and cerebral-blood-volume (CBV). IBV was computed by taking the inverse of the TTP gradient magnitude. Voxels with a CBV of at least 10% of the CBV found in the arterial input function were considered part of a vessel. Mid-sagittal planes were drawn manually and averages of the IBV over all vessel-voxels (arterial and venous) were computed for each hemisphere. Mean-hemisphere IBV differences, mean-hemisphere TTP differences, and hemisphere vessel volume differences were used to differentiate between patients with good and bad outcome (modified Rankin Scale score <3 versus ≥3 at 90 days) using ROC analysis. AUCs from the ROC for IBV, TTP, and vessel volume were 0.80, 0.67 and 0.62 respectively. In conclusion, IBV was found to be a better predictor of patient outcome than the parameters used to compute it and may be a promising new parameter for stroke outcome prediction.

  20. Somatosensory evoked potentials predict neurolysis outcome in meralgia paraesthetica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siu, Timothy L T; Chandran, K Nadana

    2004-01-01

    The role of somatosensory evoked potentials (SEP) in predicting the outcome of nerve entrapment syndrome following surgical release has not been fully verified. All patients included in our study had preoperative SEP recordings and had undergone neurolysis for treatment of meralgia paraesthetica by our senior author (KNC) between 1996 and 2000. The outcome of surgery was assessed 6 weeks after the procedure; follow up was continued at 3 month intervals if symptoms persisted. Telephone interviews were conducted to assess long-term results. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to establish the predictive value of side-to-side N1 and P1 latency differences in obtaining complete relief of symptoms following surgery. Twenty-four patients who had preoperative SEP recordings and had undergone neurolysis for meralgia paraesthetica were followed for 4.0 +/- 1.5 (SD) years. A prolonged side-to-side N1 latency difference (DeltaN1) was found to be significantly associated with complete relief of symptoms at about 6 weeks postoperatively, after adjustment for age, sex and duration of symptoms (OR, 1.75; CI, 1.03-2.96). Logistic regression identified a critical cut-off value of 8 ms (OR, 27.2; CI, 1.4-547.0). This association disappeared with longer follow up. Somatosensory evoked potentials provide significant data for prediction of good surgical outcome for meralgia paraesthetica. Re-evaluation of the diagnosis, adequate trial of conservative treatments and special attention to anomalous branches are recommended for patients with low preoperative DeltaN1 values.

  1. Predictive macrosomia birthweight thresholds for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dan; Zhu, Li; Zhang, Shulian; Wu, Xueqin; Wang, Xiaoli; Lv, Qin; Gan, Dongmei; Liu, Ling; Li, Wen; Zhou, Qin; Lu, Jiarong; He, Haiying; Wang, Jimei; Xin, Hua; Li, Zhankui; Chen, Chao

    2016-12-01

    We examined the predictive macrosomia birthweight thresholds for adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study conducted in China. We selected 178 709 singletons weighing ≥2500 g with gestational age 37-44 weeks. We categorized macrosomia with two gradations (4000-4499 g and ≥4500 g) and compared them with a normosomic reference group of infants with birthweight 2500-3999 g. The risks of obstetric and neonatal complications increased when infants had a birthweight of ≥4000 g. The rates of infant mortality, Apgar score ≤3 at 5 min, respiratory and neurological disorders rose significantly among neonates weighing ≥4500 g. A definition of macrosomia as birthweight ≥4000 g could be beneficial as an indicator of obstetric and newborn complications, and birthweight ≥4500 g might be predictive of severe infant morbidity and mortality risk.

  2. Executive function processes predict mobility outcomes in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothe, Neha P; Fanning, Jason; Awick, Elizabeth; Chung, David; Wójcicki, Thomas R; Olson, Erin A; Mullen, Sean P; Voss, Michelle; Erickson, Kirk I; Kramer, Arthur F; McAuley, Edward

    2014-02-01

    To examine the relationship between performance on executive function measures and subsequent mobility outcomes in community-dwelling older adults. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Champaign-Urbana, Illinois. Community-dwelling older adults (N = 179; mean age 66.4). A 12-month exercise trial with two arms: an aerobic exercise group and a stretching and strengthening group. Established cognitive tests of executive function (flanker task, task switching, and a dual-task paradigm) and the Wisconsin card sort test. Mobility was assessed using the timed 8-foot up and go test and times to climb up and down a flight of stairs. Participants completed the cognitive tests at baseline and the mobility measures at baseline and after 12 months of the intervention. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine whether baseline executive function predicted postintervention functional performance after controlling for age, sex, education, cardiorespiratory fitness, and baseline mobility levels. Selective baseline executive function measurements, particularly performance on the flanker task (β = 0.15-0.17) and the Wisconsin card sort test (β = 0.11-0.16) consistently predicted mobility outcomes at 12 months. The estimates were in the expected direction, such that better baseline performance on the executive function measures predicted better performance on the timed mobility tests independent of intervention. Executive functions of inhibitory control, mental set shifting, and attentional flexibility were predictive of functional mobility. Given the literature associating mobility limitations with disability, morbidity, and mortality, these results are important for understanding the antecedents to poor mobility function that well-designed interventions to improve cognitive performance can attenuate. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

  3. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean McAdams

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones <2 cm of size because of established success rates, its minimal invasiveness and long-term safety with minimal complications. Given that alternative surgical and endourological options exist for the management of stone disease and that ESWL failure often results in the need for repeat ESWL or secondary procedures, it is highly desirable to identify variables predicting successful outcomes of ESWL in the pediatric population. Despite numerous reports and growing experience, few prospective studies and guidelines for pediatric ESWL have been completed. Variation in the methods by which study parameters are measured and reported can make it difficult to compare individual studies or make definitive recommendations. There is ongoing work and a need for continuing improvement of imaging protocols in children with renal colic, with a current focus on minimizing exposure to ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  4. Predicting academic outcomes in an Australian graduate entry medical programme.

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    Puddey, Ian B; Mercer, Annette

    2014-02-15

    Predictive validity studies for selection criteria into graduate entry courses in Australia have been inconsistent in their outcomes. One of the reasons for this inconsistency may have been failure to have adequately considered background disciplines of the graduates as well as other potential confounding socio-demographic variables that may influence academic performance. Graduate entrants into the MBBS at The University of Western Australia between 2005 and 2012 were studied (N = 421). They undertook a 6-month bridging course, before joining the undergraduate-entry students for Years 3 through 6 of the medical course. Students were selected using their undergraduate Grade Point Average (GPA), Graduate Australian Medical School Admissions Test scores (GAMSAT) and a score from a standardised interview. Students could apply from any background discipline and could also be selected through an alternative rural entry pathway again utilising these 3 entry scores. Entry scores, together with age, gender, discipline background, rural entry status and a socioeconomic indicator were entered into linear regression models to determine the relative influence of each predictor on subsequent academic performance in the course. Background discipline, age, gender and selection through the rural pathway were variously related to each of the 3 entry criteria. Their subsequent inclusion in linear regression models identified GPA at entry, being from a health/allied health background and total GAMSAT score as consistent independent predictors of stronger academic performance as measured by the weighted average mark for the core units completed throughout the course. The Interview score only weakly predicted performance later in the course and mainly in clinically-based units. The association of total GAMSAT score with academic performance was predominantly dictated by the score in GAMSAT Section 3 (Reasoning in the biological and physical sciences) with Section 1 (Reasoning in the

  5. The neural basis of predicting the outcomes of planned actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew eJahn

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A key feature of human intelligence is the ability to predict the outcomes of one’s own actions prior to executing them. Action values are thought to be represented in part in the dorsal and ventral medial prefrontal cortex, yet current studies have focused on the value of executed actions rather than the anticipated value of a planned action. Thus, little is known about the neural basis of how individuals think (or fail to think about their actions and the potential consequences before they act. We scanned individuals with fMRI while they thought about performing actions that they knew would likely be correct or incorrect. Here we show that merely imagining an error, as opposed to imagining a correct outcome, increases activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, independently of subsequent actions. This activity overlaps with regions that respond to actual error commission. The findings show a distinct network that signals the prospective outcomes of one’s planned actions. A number of clinical disorders such as schizophrenia and drug abuse involve a failure to take the potential consequences of an action into account prior to acting. Our results thus suggest how dysfunctions of the medial prefrontal cortex may contribute to such failures.

  6. Anaemia to predict outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennezat, Pierre Vladimir; Maréchaux, Sylvestre; Pinçon, Claire; Finzi, Jonathan; Barrailler, Stéphanie; Bouabdallaoui, Nadia; Van Belle, Eric; Montalescot, Gilles; Collet, Jean-Philippe

    2013-01-01

    Owing to the heterogeneous population of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), risk stratification with tools such as the GRACE risk score is recommended to guide therapeutic management and improve outcome. To evaluate whether anaemia refines the value of the GRACE risk model to predict midterm outcome after an ACS. A prospective registry of 1064 ACS patients (63 ± 14 years; 73% men; 57% ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI]) was studied. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin less than 13 mg/dL in men or less than 12 mg/dL in women. The primary endpoint was 6-month death or rehospitalization for MI. The primary endpoint was reached in 132 patients, including 68 deaths. Anaemia was associated with adverse clinical outcomes (hazard ratio 3.008, 95% confidence interval 2.137-4.234; PAnaemia provided additional prognostic information to the GRACE score as demonstrated by a systematic improvement in global model fit and discrimination (c-statistic increasing from 0.633 [0.571;0.696] to 0.697 [0.638;0.755]). Subsequently, adding anaemia to the GRACE score led to reclassification of 595 patients into different risk categories; 16.5% patients at low risk (≤ 5% risk of death or rehospitalization for MI) were upgraded to intermediate (>5-10%) or high risk (>10%); 79.5% patients at intermediate risk were reclassified as low (55%) or high risk (24%); and 45.5% patients at high risk were downgraded to intermediate risk. Overall, 174 patients were reclassified into a higher risk category (17.3%) and 421 into a lower risk category (41.9%). Anaemia provides independent additional prognostic information to the GRACE score. Combining anaemia with the GRACE score refines its predictive value, which often overestimates the risk. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  7. Machine learning landscapes and predictions for patient outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

    2017-07-01

    The theory and computational tools developed to interpret and explore energy landscapes in molecular science are applied to the landscapes defined by local minima for neural networks. These machine learning landscapes correspond to fits of training data, where the inputs are vital signs and laboratory measurements for a database of patients, and the objective is to predict a clinical outcome. In this contribution, we test the predictions obtained by fitting to single measurements, and then to combinations of between 2 and 10 different patient medical data items. The effect of including measurements over different time intervals from the 48 h period in question is analysed, and the most recent values are found to be the most important. We also compare results obtained for neural networks as a function of the number of hidden nodes, and for different values of a regularization parameter. The predictions are compared with an alternative convex fitting function, and a strong correlation is observed. The dependence of these results on the patients randomly selected for training and testing decreases systematically with the size of the database available. The machine learning landscapes defined by neural network fits in this investigation have single-funnel character, which probably explains why it is relatively straightforward to obtain the global minimum solution, or a fit that behaves similarly to this optimal parameterization.

  8. Productive procrastination: academic procrastination style predicts academic and alcohol outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgate, Erin C; Wormington, Stephanie V; Oleson, Kathryn C; Lindgren, Kristen P

    2017-03-01

    Productive procrastination replaces one adaptive behavior with another adaptive-albeit less important-behavior (e.g., organizing notes instead of studying for an exam). We identified adaptive and maladaptive procrastination styles associated with academic and alcohol outcomes in 1106 college undergraduates. Cluster analysis identified five academic procrastination styles-non-procrastinators, academic productive procrastinators, non-academic productive procrastinators, non-academic procrastinators, and classic procrastinators. Procrastination style differentially predicted alcohol-related problems, cravings, risk of alcohol use disorders, and GPA (all ps < .01). Non-procrastination and academic productive procrastination were most adaptive overall; non-academic productive procrastination, non-academic procrastination, and classic procrastination were least adaptive. Productive procrastination differed from other procrastination strategies, and maladaptive procrastination styles may be a useful risk indicator for preventative and intervention efforts.

  9. Planning and predictability of clinical outcomes in esthetic rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbad, A

    2015-01-01

    In esthetic rehabilitation, it is a challenge to meet the needs of patients with growing expectations. Creating predictable results is the key to success. This can be accomplished by performing a comprehensive esthetic diagnosis, elaborating treatment proposals that satisfy today's esthetic standards, and using modern computer-assisted methods. The diagnostic wax-up and mock-up are effective tools that allow patients to visualize treatment proposals without invasive procedures. Once the patient has approved the proposals, they provide the basis for the fabrication of the final restoration. The use of modern ceramic materials makes it possible to achieve a good esthetic outcome, even in restorations with extremely thin layer thicknesses. Esthetic cementation is the final step of restorative treatment.

  10. Predicting Dental Caries Outcomes in Children: A "Risky" Concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divaris, K

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, unprecedented gains in the understanding of the biology and mechanisms underlying human health and disease have been made. In the domain of oral health, although much remains to be learned, the complex interactions between different systems in play have begun to unravel: host genome, oral microbiome with its transcriptome, proteome and metabolome, and more distal influences, including relevant behaviors and environmental exposures. A reasonable expectation is that this emerging body of knowledge can help improve the oral health and optimize care for individuals and populations. These goals are articulated by the National Institutes of Health as "precision medicine" and the elimination of health disparities. Key processes in these efforts are the discovery of causal factors or mechanistic pathways and the identification of individuals or population segments that are most likely to develop (any or severe forms of) oral disease. This article critically reviews the fundamental concepts of risk assessment and outcome prediction, as they relate to early childhood caries (ECC)-a common complex disease with significant negative impacts on children, their families, and the health system. The article highlights recent work and advances in methods available to estimate caries risk and derive person-level caries propensities. It further discusses the reasons for their limited utility in predicting individual ECC outcomes and informing clinical decision making. Critical issues identified include the misconception of defining dental caries as a tooth or surface-level condition versus a person-level disease; the fallacy of applying population-level parameters to individuals, termed privatization of risk; and the inadequacy of using frequentist versus Bayesian modeling approaches to derive individual disease propensity estimates. The article concludes with the notion that accurate caries risk assessment at the population level and "precision dentistry" at the

  11. Neurobehavioral Assessment Predicts Motor Outcome in Preterm Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Bonnie E; Liu, Jing; Lester, Barry; Lagasse, Linda; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta; Bauer, Charles; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary

    2011-01-01

    Objective To determine whether Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Network Neurobehavior Scales (NNNS) at 44 weeks predict motor outcome at 2 years in preterm infants from the Maternal Lifestyles Study (MLS). Study design Data were collected on all preterm infants (<36 weeks) in the MLS who had an NNNS at 44 weeks (n=395) and neurologic exam at 12–36 months or Bayley Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) at 24 months (n=270). Logistic regression analyzed NNNS summary scores associated with Cerebral Palsy (CP) or PDI <70, while controlling for birth weight 1250g. Results Eighteen of 395 infants (5%) had CP; 24 of 270 infants (9%) had PDI <70. CP was associated with low quality of movement (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.24–3.06, p=0.004) and high lethargy (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.01–2.76, p=0.045). The model contributed 19% of the variance in CP diagnosis at 12–36 months (R2=0.19, p<0.001). Low PDI was associated with low handling (OR 1.83; 95% CI 1.12–2.99, p=0.017), low quality of movement (OR 2.16; 95%CI 1.38–3.38, p=0.001), and hypotonia (OR 1.63; 95% CI 1.14–2.32, p=0.007). The model contributed 26% of the variance in PDI <70 at 24 months (R2=0.26, p<0.001). Conclusions The neurobehavioral profile of underarousal in 44 week preterm infants may predict poor motor outcome. PMID:19880137

  12. Within-session communication patterns predict alcohol treatment outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houck, Jon M; Moyers, Theresa B

    2015-12-01

    Within-session client speech is theorized to be a key mechanism of behavior change in motivational interviewing (MI), a directional, client-centered approach to behavior change. Client change talk (CT: speech indicating movement toward changing a problematic health behavior) and sustain talk (ST: speech supporting continuing a problematic health behavior) have each shown relationships with outcomes. However, it may be the case that patterns of within-session client speech, rather than counts of client speech, are important for producing change. Recorded initial MI/MET psychotherapy sessions from Project MATCH had been previously rated using the Motivational Interviewing Sequential Code for Observing Process Exchange (MI-SCOPE), a mutually exclusive and exhaustive sequential coding system. From these existing data, session conditional probabilities for transitions of interest (the transition from CT to more CT, and the transition from reflections of CT to CT) were analyzed as empirical Bayes estimates of log-normalized odds ratios. CT frequencies and these log-normalized odds ratios were entered as independent variables into longitudinal generalized estimating equation (GEE) models predicting within-treatment and post-treatment drinking. While all variables were significant predictors of within-treatment drinking, only the CT-CT transition emerged as a significant predictor of decreased drinking after treatment. The momentum of a client's speech about change during an MI session may be a better predictor of outcome than is a simple frequency count of it. Attending not only to the mere occurrence of CT, but also recognizing the importance of consecutive client statements of CT, may improve treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Pulmonary outcome prediction (POP) tools for cystic fibrosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanDevanter, Donald R; Wagener, Jeffrey S; Pasta, David J; Elkin, Eric; Jacobs, Joan R; Morgan, Wayne J; Konstan, Michael W

    2010-12-01

    Loss of lung function in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) is associated with increased mortality and varies between individuals and over time. Predicting this decline could improve patient management. To develop simple pulmonary outcome prediction (POP) tools to estimate lung function at age 6 in patients aged 2-5 years (POP(2-5)) and lung function change over a 4-year period in patients aged 6-17 years (POP(6-17)). Analyses were conducted using patients from the Epidemiologic Study of CF (ESCF). To be included in any analysis, patients had to have 1 year of clinical history recorded in ESCF prior to a clinically stable routine Index Clinic Visit (ICV). In addition to this criterion, for the POP(2-5) tool patients had to be between 2 and 5 years old at ICV and have a second clinically stable visit with spirometric measures at age 6. For the POP(6-17) tool, patients had to be between the ages of 6 and 17 years old at an ICV that included spirometric measures and had to have a second clinically stable visit with spirometric measures from 3 to 5 years after ICV. All patients enrolled in ESCF who met these inclusion criteria were studied. POP(2-5) and POP(6-17) populations were further divided into development groups (with ICV before January 1, 1998) and validation groups (with ICV after that date). Development groups were used to model forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV(1)) percent predicted at age 6 years (for POP(2-5)) and annualized FEV(1) % predicted change from ICV to the second visit (for POP(6-17)) by multivariable linear regression using age, sex, weight-for-age percentile, cough, sputum production, clubbing, crackles, wheeze, sinusitis, number of exacerbations requiring intravenous antibiotics in the past year, elevated liver enzymes, pancreatic enzyme use, and respiratory tract culture status, plus height-for-age percentile (POP(2-5)) and index FEV(1) (POP(6-17)). Integer-based POP(2-5) and POP(6-17) tools created from selected variables were

  14. Hippocampal Mismatch Signals Are Modulated by the Strength of Neural Predictions and Their Similarity to Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Nicole M; Lee, Hongmi; Kuhl, Brice A

    2016-12-14

    The hippocampus is thought to compare predicted events with current perceptual input, generating a mismatch signal when predictions are violated. However, most prior studies have only inferred when predictions occur without measuring them directly. Moreover, an important but unresolved question is whether hippocampal mismatch signals are modulated by the degree to which predictions differ from outcomes. Here, we conducted a human fMRI study in which subjects repeatedly studied various word-picture pairs, learning to predict particular pictures (outcomes) from the words (cues). After initial learning, a subset of cues was paired with a novel, unexpected outcome, whereas other cues continued to predict the same outcome. Critically, when outcomes changed, the new outcome was either "near" to the predicted outcome (same visual category as the predicted picture) or "far" from the predicted outcome (different visual category). Using multivoxel pattern analysis, we indexed cue-evoked reactivation (prediction) within neocortical areas and related these trial-by-trial measures of prediction strength to univariate hippocampal responses to the outcomes. We found that prediction strength positively modulated hippocampal responses to unexpected outcomes, particularly when unexpected outcomes were close, but not identical, to the prediction. Hippocampal responses to unexpected outcomes were also associated with a tradeoff in performance during a subsequent memory test: relatively faster retrieval of new (updated) associations, but relatively slower retrieval of the original (older) associations. Together, these results indicate that hippocampal mismatch signals reflect a comparison between active predictions and current outcomes and that these signals are most robust when predictions are similar, but not identical, to outcomes. Although the hippocampus is widely thought to signal "mismatches" between memory-based predictions and outcomes, previous research has not linked

  15. Development and validation of a predictive outcome score of cerebral venous thrombosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, K; Uyttenboogaart, M; Vroomen, P C; van der Meer, J; De Keyser, J; Luijckx, G J

    2009-01-01

    Background and purpose: Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare disease with a Variable outcome. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive outcome score for CVT patients. Methods: The score was based on the 8 predictive variables of poor Outcome (modified Rankin Scale score>2

  16. Patient assessment: preparing for a predictable aesthetic outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shamir B; Banerji, Subir; Aulakh, Raman

    2015-01-01

    The flux of patients seeking to make changes to the appearance of their smile zone appears to be on a pathway of continual increase. This is possibly due to an increase in awareness towards oral health, and perhaps social, peer and media pressures, respectively. Cohorts of dental practitioners have thus responded to the latter demands by attending a plethora of educational courses, often focusing on either restorative techniques or other disciplines, notably orthodontics and clear aligners in particular. Consequently, treatment planning and thus treatment provision may carry the risk of being biased or indeed 'outcome driven' whereby the skills and knowledge of any clinician towards a particular faculty may significantly influence the ultimate treatment plan, with the unfortunate tendency sometimes to overlook the role of the interdisciplinary approach of concomitant restorative and contemporary techniques. The role of orthodontics to facilitate the provision of such treatment, along with predictable enamel bonding, has the distinct advantage of providing an acceptable aesthetic result with minimal biological intervention. However, to achieve an optimal result in such cases requires meticulous treatment planning and patient selection to avoid pitfalls with regards to long-term stability and function. This article suggests a standardized approach to patient assessment, with an interdisciplinary perspective in mind. Clinical Relevance: With the growth of patient demand for improving the appearance of the smile, a meticulous assessment protocol is required along with effective interdisciplinary communication. This enables a comprehensive treatment plan to be developed with the correct priorities.

  17. Facial Trustworthiness Predicts Extreme Criminal-Sentencing Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John Paul; Rule, Nicholas O

    2015-08-01

    Untrustworthy faces incur negative judgments across numerous domains. Existing work in this area has focused on situations in which the target's trustworthiness is relevant to the judgment (e.g., criminal verdicts and economic games). Yet in the present studies, we found that people also overgeneralized trustworthiness in criminal-sentencing decisions when trustworthiness should not be judicially relevant, and they did so even for the most extreme sentencing decision: condemning someone to death. In Study 1, we found that perceptions of untrustworthiness predicted death sentences (vs. life sentences) for convicted murderers in Florida (N = 742). Moreover, in Study 2, we found that the link between trustworthiness and the death sentence occurred even when participants viewed innocent people who had been exonerated after originally being sentenced to death. These results highlight the power of facial appearance to prejudice perceivers and affect life outcomes even to the point of execution, which suggests an alarming bias in the criminal-justice system. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Prediction of outcomes in young adults with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotai, Silky; Ahn, Sung-Yong; Moon, Hong-Joo; Kim, Jong-Hyun; Chung, Heung-Seob; Chung, Yong-Gu; Kwon, Taek-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is rare in young adults and little is known about aneurysms in this subgroup. The effect of clinical and prognostic factors on the outcome based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores and the predictors of unfavorable outcomes were analyzed in young adults with aneurysmal SAH. A retrospective review of the clinical parameters, including age, sex, hypertension, smoking status, hyperlipidemia, location of the cerebral aneurysm, size of the aneurysm, multiplicity, perioperative complication such as hydrocephalus, vasospasm, and hematoma, and Hunt and Hess and Fisher grading on presentation, was conducted in 108 young adults (mean age 34.8 years) managed at our institute. The outcome was classified based on GOS grading into unfavorable (GOS scores 1-3) or favorable (GOS scores 4 or 5). The overall mortality rate was 3.7% (4/108 patients). Univariate regression analysis for the outcomes at discharge found that age at the time of presentation, male sex, size of aneurysm, multiple aneurysms, hyperlipidemia, and poor Hunt and Hess and Fischer grades were associated with unfavorable outcome. Multivariate regression analysis found independent effects of sex, multiple aneurysms, size of aneurysm, and Hunt and Hess grade on the outcome at discharge. Size of aneurysm, presence of multiple aneurysms, Hunt and Hess grade, and hypertension were the predictors of outcome at mean 2-year follow up based on multivariate exact regression analysis. The multimodal approach with aggressive medical management, early intervention, and surgical treatment might contribute to favorable long-term outcomes in patients with poor expected outcomes.

  19. The success of cardiotocography in predicting perinatal outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alpaslan Kaban

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The determination of the fetal condition duringlabor is important to minimize fetal death due to asphyxiaand the neurological sequelae of fetal hypoxia.This study evaluated the success of fetal cardiotocographyin predicting perinatal consequences.Materials and methods: This study enrolled 101 full-termpregnant women admitted for delivery to Vakif GurebaTraining and Research Hospital between October 2009and February 2010. Women were included if they wereaged 18-45 years and within 36-41 weeks of gestation.During a 20-min period of fetal monitoring, a change inFHR (fetal heart rate lasting for 15 s or two elevated runsof 15 beats was evaluated as a reactive NST (non-stresstest. The umbilical artery pH was used as the “gold standard”for assessing fetal asphyxia.Results: The mean age of the women included in thestudy was 27.82 ± 5.29 years, the average parity was1.09± 0.96. The pH was normal in 85 neonates, while 13 hadfetal asphyxia. No significant difference in umbilical cordblood pH, pO2, or pCO2 was observed between these twogroups (p = 0.497, p = 0.722, and p = 0.053, respectively.No significant difference in maternal age, parity, or birthweight was found between the group with fetal distressbased on CTG (cardiotocography and the normal group.Conclusion: Cardiotocography is an important test duringlabor for labor management, it is insufficient for predictingthe perinatal outcome. Therefore, labor should beevaluated on an individualized basis. J Clin Exp Invest2012; 3(2: 168-171

  20. Can bone scintigraphy predict the final outcome of pasteurized autografts?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eid, Ahmed Shawky [Ain Shams University, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Cairo (Egypt); Jeon, Dae-Geun; Cho, Wan Hyeong [Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul (Korea)

    2010-10-15

    As pasteurization is becoming more widely used in limb salvage reconstruction, more study is required to understand about host-graft junction healing, graft revascularization and incorporation, and the incidence and type of complications among pasteurized autografts. This was mainly achieved by follow-up radiography. We aimed to clarify whether Tc99m bone scanning can be considered a reliable method in determining these three parameters. Twenty-seven osteosarcoma patients with pasteurized autograft reconstructions were retrospectively reviewed using available scintigraphic and radiographic follow-up every 6 months postoperatively for 36 months. Follow-up of the unhealed cases was continued for the maximum follow-up period available for each case beyond the original study period, ranging from 1 to 15 months. Tc99m uptake was classified as cold, faint, moderate and high uptake. Junction healing was classified as none, partial and complete healing. Seventy percent of junctions united with a mean of 22 months. Ninety to 100% of junctions showed increased uptake (high or moderate) at one time of the study regardless of final outcome. 85% of the pasteurized grafts showed the characteristic ''tramline appearance''. Four grafts (15%) were complicated: pseudoarthrosis and implant failure (1), fractured plate (1), intramedullary nail (IMN) fracture (1), and prosthesis stem loosening in the host bone (1), with underlying unhealed junctions in all cases. Bone scanning can determine the stages of the graft's rim revascularization and incorporation; however, it cannot detect or predict junction healing or occurrence of complications. Supplementary treatment of unhealed junctions showing either decreased junctional uptake or graft quiescence may be warranted. Otherwise, detection of distant metastasis and early local recurrence remains the main application of Tc99m scanning in the management of bone sarcomas. (orig.)

  1. Hazards of Hospitalization: Residence Prior to Admission Predicts Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Susan M.; Mendelson, Daniel A.; Bingham, Karilee W.; McCann, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Previous studies investigating adverse outcomes of hospitalized elders have focused on community-dwelling patients. Given the rapid growth of populations living in other settings, such as assisted living facilities, it is important to understand whether these patients are at higher risk of experiencing specific adverse outcomes during…

  2. Predicting outcome from coma : man-in-the-barrel syndrome as potential pitfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elting, JW; Haaxma, R; De Keyser, J; Sulter, G.

    2000-01-01

    The Glasgow coma scale motor score is often used in predicting outcome after hypoxic ischemic coma. Judicious care should be exerted when using this variable in predicting outcome in patients with coma following hypotension since borderzone infarction can obscure the clinical picture. We describe a

  3. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  4. An evolution of trauma care evaluation: A thesis on trauma registry and outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, P.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome prediction models play an invaluable role in the evaluation and improvement of modern trauma care. Trauma registries underlying these outcome prediction models need to be accurate, complete and consistent. This thesis focused on the opportunities and limitations of trauma registries and

  5. An evolution of trauma care evaluation: A thesis on trauma registry and outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, P.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome prediction models play an invaluable role in the evaluation and improvement of modern trauma care. Trauma registries underlying these outcome prediction models need to be accurate, complete and consistent. This thesis focused on the opportunities and limitations of trauma registries and outc

  6. An evolution of trauma care evaluation: A thesis on trauma registry and outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, P.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome prediction models play an invaluable role in the evaluation and improvement of modern trauma care. Trauma registries underlying these outcome prediction models need to be accurate, complete and consistent. This thesis focused on the opportunities and limitations of trauma registries and outc

  7. Predicting the Outcome of NBA Playoffs Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Ge Cheng; Zhenyu Zhang; Moses Ntanda Kyebambe; Nasser Kimbugwe

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the outcome of National Basketball Association (NBA) matches poses a challenging problem of interest to the research community as well as the general public. In this article, we formalize the problem of predicting NBA game results as a classification problem and apply the principle of Maximum Entropy to construct an NBA Maximum Entropy (NBAME) model that fits to discrete statistics for NBA games, and then predict the outcomes of NBA playoffs using the model. Our results reveal that...

  8. Cast index in predicting outcome of proximal pediatric forearm fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassaan Qaiser Sheikh

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: Cast index is useful in predicting redisplacement of manipulated distal forearm fractures. We found that in proximal half forearm fractures it is difficult to achieve a CI of <0.8, but increased CI does not predict loss of position in these fractures. We therefore discourage the use of CI in proximal half forearm fractures.

  9. What could possibly go wrong? - A heuristic for predicting population health outcomes of interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broadbent, Alex

    2011-10-01

    Austin Bradford Hill offers a general heuristic for causal inference in epidemiology, but no general heuristic for prediction is available. This paper seeks to identify a heuristic for predicting the outcome of interventions on population health, informed by the moral context of such interventions. It is suggested that, where available, robust predictions should be preferred, where a robust prediction is one which, according to the best knowledge we are currently able to obtain, could not easily be wrong. To assess whether a prediction is robust, it is suggested that we ask why the predicted outcome will occur, rather than any other outcome. Firstly, if, according to our current knowledge, we cannot identify the likeliest ways that the other outcomes could occur, then the prediction is not robust. And secondly, if, according to our current knowledge, we can identify the likeliest other outcomes but we are unable to say why our predicted outcome will occur rather than these, then, again, our prediction is not robust. Otherwise, it is robust. The inaccurate but memorable short version of the heuristic is, "What could possibly go wrong?"

  10. Early Patient-Reported Outcomes Predict 3-Year Outcomes in Operatively Treated Patients with Adult Spinal Deformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Amit; Kebaish, Khaled M; Sciubba, Daniel M; Hassanzadeh, Hamid; Scheer, Justin K; Neuman, Brian J; Lafage, Virginie; Bess, Shay; Protopsaltis, Themistocles S; Burton, Douglas C; Smith, Justin S; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Hostin, Richard A; Ames, Christopher P

    2017-06-01

    For patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD), surgical treatment may improve their health-related quality of life. This study investigates when the greatest improvement in outcomes occurs and whether incremental improvements in patient-reported outcomes during the first postoperative year predict outcomes at 3 years. Using a multicenter registry, we identified 84 adults with ASD treated surgically from 2008 to 2012 with complete 3-year follow-up. Pairwise t tests and multivariate regression were used for analysis. Significance was set at P years (both P year, ODI and SRS-22r scores improved by 19 and 0.5 points, respectively (both P year predicted 3-year outcomes in ODI and SRS-22r scores (adjusted R(2) = 0.52 and 0.42, respectively). There were no significant differences in the measured or predicted 3-year ODI (P = 0.991) or SRS-22r scores (P = 0.986). In surgically treated patients with ASD, the greatest improvements in outcomes occurred between 6 weeks and 1 year postoperatively. A model with incremental improvements from baseline to 6 weeks and from 6 weeks to 1 year can be used to predict ODI and SRS-22r scores at 3 years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Revolutionizing Toxicity Testing For Predicting Developmental Outcomes (DNT4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characterizing risk from environmental chemical exposure currently requires extensive animal testing; however, alternative approaches are being researched to increase throughput of chemicals screened, decrease reliance on animal testing, and improve accuracy in predicting adverse...

  12. Using Conversation Topics for Predicting Therapy Outcomes in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Christine; Purver, Matthew; McCabe, Rose

    2013-01-01

    Previous research shows that aspects of doctor-patient communication in therapy can predict patient symptoms, satisfaction and future adherence to treatment (a significant problem with conditions such as schizophrenia). However, automatic prediction has so far shown success only when based on low-level lexical features, and it is unclear how well these can generalize to new data, or whether their effectiveness is due to their capturing aspects of style, structure or content. Here, we examine the use of topic as a higher-level measure of content, more likely to generalize and to have more explanatory power. Investigations show that while topics predict some important factors such as patient satisfaction and ratings of therapy quality, they lack the full predictive power of lower-level features. For some factors, unsupervised methods produce models comparable to manual annotation. PMID:23943658

  13. Predicting Child Outcomes from Preschool Quality in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abreu-Lima, Isabel M. P.; Leal, Teresa B.; Cadima, Joana; Gamelas, Ana Madalena

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to analyze whether quality of preschool classrooms relates to 4- and 5-year-old children developmental outcomes. The study was conducted in 60 classrooms in Porto Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Children (N = 215) were evaluated in the literacy, math, and behavior domains. Preschool quality was assessed through…

  14. Outcome prediction in gastroschisis - The gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puligandla, Pramod S; Baird, Robert; Skarsgard, Eric D; Emil, Sherif; Laberge, Jean-Martin

    2017-05-01

    The GPS enables risk stratification for gastroschisis and helps discriminate low from high morbidity groups. The purpose of this study was to revalidate GPS's characterization of a high morbidity group and to quantify relationships between the GPS and outcomes. With REB approval, complete survivor data from a national gastroschisis registry was collected. GPS bowel injury scoring was revalidated excluding the initial inception/validation cohorts (>2011). Length of stay (LOS), 1st enteral feed days (dFPO), TPN days (dTPN), and aggregate complications (COMP) were compared between low and high morbidity risk groups. Mathematical relationships between outcomes and integer increases in GPS were explored using the entire cohort (2005-present). Median (range) LOS, dPO, and dTPN for the entire cohort (n=849) was 36 (26,62), 13 (9,18), and 27 (20,46) days, respectively. High-risk patients (GPS≥2; n=80) experienced significantly worse outcomes than low risk patients (n=263). Each integer increase in GPS was associated with increases in LOS and dTPN by 16.9 and 12.7days, respectively (pGPS effectively discriminates low from high morbidity risk groups. Within the high risk group, integer increases in GPS produce quantitatively differentiated outcomes which may guide initial counseling and resource allocation. IIb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Increased vascularization predicts favorable outcome in follicular lymphoma.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, A. de; Krieken, J.H.J.M. van; MacKenzie, M.A.; Schraders, M.; Borm, G.F.; Laak, J.A.W.M. van der; Leenders, W.P.J.; Hebeda, K.M.; Raemaekers, J.M.M.

    2005-01-01

    PURPOSE: In malignant lymphoma, angiogenesis has been associated with adverse outcome or more aggressive clinical behavior. This correlation has been established in groups of patients with a large heterogeneity regarding lymphoma subtypes and treatment regimens. The aim of this study is to investiga

  16. MRI Predicts Outcome After HIE Treated with Hypothermia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura E Ryan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Investigators from Children’s National Medical Center and George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC, studied the correlation between white matter tract changes and developmental outcomes in a series of infants with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE treated with whole body cooling.

  17. Gene expression profiling predicts clinical outcome of breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veer, L.J. van 't; Dai, H.; Vijver, H. van de; He, Y.D.; Hart, A.A.M.; Mao, M.; Peterse, H.L.; Kooy, K. van der; Marton, M.J.; Witteveen, A.T.; Schreiber, G.J.; Kerkhoven, R.M.; Roberts, C.; Linsley, P.S.; Bernards, R.A.; Friend, S.H.

    2002-01-01

    Breast cancer patients with the same stage of disease can have markedly different treatment responses and overall outcome. The strongest predictors for metastases (for example, lymph node status and histological grade) fail to classify accurately breast tumours according to their clinical behaviour.

  18. Professor-Student Rapport Scale: Six Items Predict Student Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Janie H.; Ryan, Rebecca G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapport between students and teachers leads to numerous positive student outcomes, including attitudes toward the teacher and course, student motivation, and perceived learning. The recent development of a Professor-Student Rapport scale offers assessment of this construct. However, a Cronbach's [alpha] of 0.96 indicated item redundancy, and the…

  19. Dynamic modularity in protein interaction networks predicts breast cancer outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Ian W; Linding, Rune; Warde-Farley, David

    2009-01-01

    Changes in the biochemical wiring of oncogenic cells drives phenotypic transformations that directly affect disease outcome. Here we examine the dynamic structure of the human protein interaction network (interactome) to determine whether changes in the organization of the interactome can be used...

  20. Standardized mastery content assessments for predicting NCLEX-RN outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emory, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Nurse educators need predictors of failure for early intervention. This study investigated the predictability of fundamentals, mental health, and pharmacology standardized assessment scores to identify the risk of baccalaureate students' failure on the NCLEX-RN. Using logistic regression the pharmacology assessment score was predictive with 73.7% accuracy. Use of the pharmacology assessment can assist in early identification of at-risk students in efforts to better prepare for the NCLEX-RN examination.

  1. Malnutrition Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Neuroendocrine Neoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maasberg, Sebastian; Knappe-Drzikova, Barbora; Vonderbeck, Dorothée; Jann, Henning; Weylandt, Karsten H; Grieser, Christian; Pascher, Andreas; Schefold, Jörg C; Pavel, Marianne; Wiedenmann, Bertram; Sturm, Andreas; Pape, Ulrich-Frank

    2017-01-01

    Malnutrition is a common problem in oncological diseases, influencing treatment outcomes, treatment complications, quality of life and survival. The potential role of malnutrition has not yet been studied systematically in neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN), which, due to their growing prevalence and additional therapeutic options, provide an increasing clinical challenge to diagnosis and management. The aim of this cross-sectional observational study, which included a long-term follow-up, was therefore to define the prevalence of malnutrition in 203 patients with NEN using various methodological approaches, and to analyse the short- and long-term outcome of malnourished patients. A detailed subgroup analysis was also performed to define risk factors for poorer outcome. When applying malnutrition screening scores, 21-25% of the NEN patients were at risk of or demonstrated manifest malnutrition. This was confirmed by anthropometric measurements, by determination of serum surrogate parameters such as albumin as well as by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), particularly phase angle α. The length of hospital stay was significantly longer in malnourished NEN patients, while long-term overall survival was highly significantly reduced. Patients with high-grade (G3) neuroendocrine carcinomas, progressive disease and undergoing chemotherapy were at particular risk of malnutrition associated with a poorer outcome. Multivariate analysis confirmed the important and highly significant role of malnutrition as an independent prognostic factor for NEN besides proliferative capacity (G3 NEC). Malnutrition is therefore an underrecognized problem in NEN patients which should systematically be diagnosed by widely available standard methods such as Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS), serum albumin assessment and BIA, and treated to improve both short- and long-term outcomes. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  2. Prediction of outcome of brief psychotherapy from therapist interpretive interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marziali, E A

    1984-03-01

    This study replicated Malan's 1976 analysis of psychodynamic interpretations and corrected the major methodological fault in his work: the use of therapist notes for rating the interpretive elements. In this study, the sessions of 25 patients treated in brief dynamic psychotherapy were audiotaped and the ratings of the interpretive interventions were made directly from the audiotapes. Malan's findings were supported. There was a positive association between more favorable outcome, measured on five psychodynamic scales, and the frequency with which therapist interpretations referred to emotions experienced in the transference relationship that were similar to those experienced in relationships with parents and other important persons. The results of this replication indicate that these therapist-offered explanations about the meanings of significant current and past interpersonal relationships contribute to the outcome of brief psychotherapy.

  3. Cord Blood DNA Methylation Biomarkers for Predicting Neurodevelopmental Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolette A. Hodyl

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental exposures in pregnancy can significantly alter the development of the fetus resulting in impaired child neurodevelopment. Such exposures can lead to epigenetic alterations like DNA methylation, which may be a marker of poor cognitive, motor and behavioral outcomes in the infant. Here we review studies that have assessed DNA methylation in cord blood following maternal exposures that may impact neurodevelopment of the child. We also highlight some key studies to illustrate the potential for DNA methylation to successfully identify infants at risk for poor outcomes. While the current evidence is limited, in that observations to date are largely correlational, in time and with larger cohorts analyzed and longer term follow-up completed, we may be able to develop epigenetic biomarkers that not only indicate adverse early life exposures but can also be used to identify individuals likely to be at an increased risk of impaired neurodevelopment even in the absence of detailed information regarding prenatal environment.

  4. Hashimoto's thyroiditis predicts outcome in intrathyroidal papillary thyroid cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, Vincenzo; Sciammarella, Concetta; Chiofalo, Maria Grazia; Gambardella, Claudio; Bellevicine, Claudio; Grasso, Marica; Conzo, Giovanni; Docimo, Giovanni; Botti, Gerardo; Losito, Simona; Troncone, Giancarlo; De Palma, Maurizio; Giacomelli, Laura; Pezzullo, Luciano; Colao, Annamaria; Faggiano, Antongiulio

    2017-09-01

    Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) seems to have favourable prognostic impact on papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but data were obtained analysing all disease stages. Given that HT-related microenvironment involves solely the thyroid, we aimed to assess the relationship between HT, as detected through pathological assessment, and outcome in intrathyroidal PTC. This was a multicentre, retrospective, observational study including 301 PTC with no evidence of extrathyroidal disease. Primary study endpoint was the rate of clinical remission. Auxiliary endpoint was recurrence-free survival (RFS). HT was detected in 42.5% of the cohort and was associated to female gender, smaller tumour size, lower rate of aggressive PTC variants and less frequent post-surgery radio-iodine administration. HT showed relationship with significantly higher rate of clinical remission (P disease outcome at univariate analysis (age at diagnosis, histology, tumour size and multifocality), prognostic effect of HT remained significant (P = 0.006, OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.39-7.72). To verify whether HT could optimise the identification of PTCs with unfavourable outcome, we assessed the accuracy of 'non-HT status' as negative prognostic marker, demonstrating poor capability of identifying patients not maintaining clinical remission until final follow-up (probability of no clinical remission in PTCs without HT: 21.05%, 95% CI 15.20-27.93). In conclusion, our data show that HT represents an independent prognostic parameter in intrathyroidal PTC, but cannot improve prognostic specificity. © 2017 Society for Endocrinology.

  5. Machine learning prediction for classification of outcomes in local minimisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning schemes are employed to predict which local minimum will result from local energy minimisation of random starting configurations for a triatomic cluster. The input data consists of structural information at one or more of the configurations in optimisation sequences that converge to one of four distinct local minima. The ability to make reliable predictions, in terms of the energy or other properties of interest, could save significant computational resources in sampling procedures that involve systematic geometry optimisation. Results are compared for two energy minimisation schemes, and for neural network and quadratic functions of the inputs.

  6. Predicting Psychiatric Rehabilitation Outcome Using Demographic Characteristics: A Replication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, William A.; Buell, Gregory J.

    1974-01-01

    Replication was undertaken of a recent study conducted by Buell and Anthony which had found that recidivism and posthospital employment could be predicted by a single demographic variable, number of previous hospitalizations and employment history, respectively. Results of the replication were consistent for posthospital employment but not for…

  7. Extinction reveals that primary sensory cortex predicts reinforcement outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieszczad, Kasia M; Weinberger, Norman M

    2012-02-01

    Primary sensory cortices are traditionally regarded as stimulus analysers. However, studies of associative learning-induced plasticity in the primary auditory cortex (A1) indicate involvement in learning, memory and other cognitive processes. For example, the area of representation of a tone becomes larger for stronger auditory memories and the magnitude of area gain is proportional to the degree that a tone becomes behaviorally important. Here, we used extinction to investigate whether 'behavioral importance' specifically reflects a sound's ability to predict reinforcement (reward or punishment) vs. to predict any significant change in the meaning of a sound. If the former, then extinction should reverse area gains as the signal no longer predicts reinforcement. Rats (n = 11) were trained to bar-press to a signal tone (5.0 kHz) for water-rewards, to induce signal-specific area gains in A1. After subsequent withdrawal of reward, A1 was mapped to determine representational areas. Signal-specific area gains, estimated from a previously established brain-behavior quantitative function, were reversed, supporting the 'reinforcement prediction' hypothesis. Area loss was specific to the signal tone vs. test tones, further indicating that withdrawal of reinforcement, rather than unreinforced tone presentation per se, was responsible for area loss. Importantly, the amount of area loss was correlated with the amount of extinction (r = 0.82, P reinforcement, and that the number of cells tuned to a stimulus can dictate its ability to command behavior.

  8. Hamsi scoring in the prediction of unfavorable outcomes from tuberculous meningitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Erdem, Hakan; Ozturk-Engin, Derya; Tireli, Hulya

    2015-01-01

    Predicting unfavorable outcome is of paramount importance in clinical decision making. Accordingly, we designed this multinational study, which provided the largest case series of tuberculous meningitis (TBM). 43 centers from 14 countries (Albania, Croatia, Denmark, Egypt, France, Hungary, Iraq...

  9. Predicting mobility outcome in lower limb amputees with motor ability tests used in early rehabilitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spaan, Matthijs H; Vrieling, Aline H; van de Berg, Pim; Dijkstra, Pieter U; van Keeken, Helco G

    STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. BACKGROUND: Persons with a lower limb amputation can regain mobility using a prosthetic device. For fast and adequate prescription of prosthetic components, it is necessary to predict the mobility outcome early in rehabilitation. Currently, prosthetic

  10. Using acute kidney injury severity and scoring systems to predict outcome in patients with burn injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Kuo

    2016-12-01

    Conclusion: Our results revealed that AKI stage has considerable discriminative power for predicting mortality. Compared with other prognostic models, AKI stage is easier to use to assess outcome in patients with severe burn injury.

  11. Proteomic Analysis Identifies Outcome-Predictive Clusters in Patients with Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma, Not otherwise specified

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ludvigsen, Maja; Pedersen, Martin Bjerregård; Poulsen, T.S.

    2014-01-01

    Proteomic Analysis Identifies Outcome-Predictive Clusters in Patients with Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma, Not otherwise specified......Proteomic Analysis Identifies Outcome-Predictive Clusters in Patients with Peripheral T-Cell Lymphoma, Not otherwise specified...

  12. Prediction of Tumor Outcome Based on Gene Expression Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Juan; Hitoshi Iba

    2004-01-01

    Gene expression microarray data can be used to classify tumor types. We proposed a new procedure to classify human tumor samples based on microarray gene expressions by using a hybrid supervised learning method called MOEA+WV (Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm+Weighted Voting). MOEA is used to search for a relatively few subsets of informative genes from the high-dimensional gene space, and WV is used as a classification tool. This new method has been applied to predicate the subtypes of lymphoma and outcomes of medulloblastoma. The results are relatively accurate and meaningful compared to those from other methods.

  13. Visual outcomes in patients with open globe injuries compared to predicted outcomes using the Ocular Trauma Scoring system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Toit, Nagib; Mustak, Hamza; Cook, Colin

    2015-01-01

    To determine the visual outcomes in adult patients who sustained open globe injuries and to determine whether the visual prognosis following an eye injury in an African setting differs from the predicted outcomes according to the Ocular Trauma Score (OTS) study. A secondary aim was to establish the evisceration rate for these injuries and assess how this form of intervention affected outcomes in comparison to the OTS. A prospective case series of all patients admitted with open globe injuries over a two-year (July 2009 to June 2011) period. Injuries were scored using the OTS and the surgical intervention was recorded. The best corrected visual acuity at three months was regarded as visual outcome. There were 249 open globe injuries, of which 169 patients (169 eyes) completed the 3-month follow-up. All patients underwent primary surgery, 175 (70.3%) repairs, 61 (24.5%) eviscerations and 13 (5.2%) other procedures. Globe eviscerations were mainly done on OTS Category 1 cases, but outcomes in this category were not found to be different from OTS outcomes. Outcomes were significantly worse in Category 2, but when the entire distribution was tested, the differences were not statistically significant. The overall association between OTS outcomes and the final visual outcomes in this study was found to be a strong (P<0.005). Reliable information regarding the expected outcomes of eye injuries will influence management decisions and patient expectations. The OTS is a valuable tool, the use of which has been validated in many parts of the world-it may also be a valid predictor in an African setting.

  14. Prediction of surgical outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy: A novel clinicoradiological prognostic score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi Anil Aggarwal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Preoperative severity of myelopathy, age, and duration of symptoms have been shown to be highly predictive of the outcome in compressive cervical myelopathy (CCM. The role of radiological parameters is still controversial. Aims: Define the prognostic factors in CCM and formulate a prognostic score to predict the outcome following surgery in CCM. Settings and Design: Retrospective. Materials and Methods: This study included 78 consecutive patients with CCM treated surgically. The modified Japanese Orthopaedic Association (mJOA scale was used to quantify severity of myelopathy at admission and at 12-month follow-up. The outcome was defined as "good" if the patient had mJOA score ≥16 and "poor" if the score was <16. Age, sex, duration of symptoms, comorbidities, intrinsic hand muscle wasting (IHMW, diagnosis, surgical technique, Torg ratio, instability on dynamic radiographs, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI signal intensity changes were assessed. Statistics: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS (version 20.0 was used for statistical analysis. The association was assessed amongst variables using logistic regression analysis. Parameters having a statistically significant correlation with the outcome were included in formulating a prognostic score. Results: Severity of myelopathy, IHMW, age, duration, diabetes, and instability on radiographs were predictive of the outcome with a P value <0.01. Genders, diagnosis, surgical procedure, Torg ratio, and intensity changes on MRI were not significantly related to the outcome. A 8-point scoring system was devised incorporating the significant clinicoradiological parameters, and it was found that nearly all patients (97.82% with a score below 5 had good outcome and all patients (100% with a score above 5 had poor outcome. The outcome is difficult to predict with a score of 5. Conclusions: Clinical parameters are better predictors of the outcome as compared to radiological findings

  15. Connectivity-based predictions of hand motor outcome for patients at the subacute stage after stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia eLindow

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. Connectivity-based predictions of hand motor outcome have been proposed to be useful in stroke patients. We intended to assess the prognostic value of different imaging methods on short-term (3 months and long-term (6 months motor outcome after stroke. Methods. We measured resting state functional connectivity (rsFC, diffusion weighted imaging (DWI and grip strength in 19 stroke patients within the first days (5-9 days after stroke. Outcome measurements for short-term (3 months and long-term (6 months motor function was assessed by the Motricity Index (MI of the upper limb and the Box and Block test (BB. Patients were predominantly mildly affected since signed consent was necessary at inclusion. We performed a multiple stepwise regression analysis to compare the predictive value of rsFC, DWI and clinical measurements. Results. Patients showed relevant improvement in both motor outcome tests. As expected grip strength at inclusion was a predictor for short- and long-term motor outcome as assessed by MI. Diffusion-based tract volume (DTV of the tracts between ipsilesional primary motor cortex and contralesional anterior cerebellar hemisphere showed a strong trend (p=0.05 for a predictive power for long-term motor outcome as measured by MI. DTV of the interhemispheric tracts between both primary motor cortices was predictive for both short - and long-term motor outcome in BB. rsFC was not associated with motor outcome. Conclusions. Grip strength is a good predictor of hand motor outcome concerning strength-related measurements (MI for mildly affected subacute patients. Therefore additional connectivity measurements seem to be redundant in this group. Using more complex movement recruiting bilateral motor areas as an outcome parameter, DTV and in particular interhemispheric pathways might enhance predictive value of hand motor outcome.

  16. Which measures of time preference best predict outcomes? Evidence from a large-scale field experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Burks, Stephen V.; Carpenter, Jeffrey P.; Goette, Lorenz; Rustichini, Aldo

    2011-01-01

    Economists and psychologists have devised numerous instruments to measure time preferences and have generated a rich literature examining the extent to which time preferences predict important outcomes; however, we still do not know which measures work best. With the help of a large sample of non-student participants (truck driver trainees) and administrative data on outcomes, we gather four different time preference measures and test the extent to which they predict both on their own and whe...

  17. Prediction of stroke thrombolysis outcome using CT brain machine learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bentley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A critical decision-step in the emergency treatment of ischemic stroke is whether or not to administer thrombolysis — a treatment that can result in good recovery, or deterioration due to symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH. Certain imaging features based upon early computerized tomography (CT, in combination with clinical variables, have been found to predict SICH, albeit with modest accuracy. In this proof-of-concept study, we determine whether machine learning of CT images can predict which patients receiving tPA will develop SICH as opposed to showing clinical improvement with no haemorrhage. Clinical records and CT brains of 116 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis were collected retrospectively (including 16 who developed SICH. The sample was split into training (n = 106 and test sets (n = 10, repeatedly for 1760 different combinations. CT brain images acted as inputs into a support vector machine (SVM, along with clinical severity. Performance of the SVM was compared with established prognostication tools (SEDAN and HAT scores; original, or after adaptation to our cohort. Predictive performance, assessed as area under receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC, of the SVM (0.744 compared favourably with that of prognostic scores (original and adapted versions: 0.626–0.720; p < 0.01. The SVM also identified 9 out of 16 SICHs, as opposed to 1–5 using prognostic scores, assuming a 10% SICH frequency (p < 0.001. In summary, machine learning methods applied to acute stroke CT images offer automation, and potentially improved performance, for prediction of SICH following thrombolysis. Larger-scale cohorts, and incorporation of advanced imaging, should be tested with such methods.

  18. Predicting outcome in melanoma: where are we now?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Jennings, L

    2009-09-01

    Melanoma incidence continues to rise in most countries. This is of grave concern, given the mortality rate in a relatively young population. Current staging tools are limited in their ability to predict accurately those at risk of metastatic disease, relapse and treatment failure. This overview comprehensively reviews relevant literature, with the focus on the last 5 years, and discusses the current state of traditional and emerging novel methods of staging for melanoma and their effect on prognosis in this population.

  19. Metabolomic profiling predicts outcome of rituximab therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

    OpenAIRE

    Sweeney, Shannon R; Kavanaugh, Arthur; Lodi, Alessia; Wang, Bo; Boyle, David; Tiziani, Stefano; Guma, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether characterisation of patients' metabolic profiles, utilising nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and mass spectrometry (MS), could predict response to rituximab therapy. 23 patients with active, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on concomitant methotrexate were treated with rituximab. Patients were grouped into responders and non-responders according to the American College of Rheumatology improvement criteria, at a 20% level at 6 months. A Bruker Avance 700 M...

  20. Ruptured corpus luteal cyst: Prediction of clinical outcomes with CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Myoung Seok; Moon, Min Hoan; Woo, Hyun Sik; Sung, Chang Kyu; Jeon, Hye Won; Lee, Taek Sang [SMG-SNU Boramae Medical Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the determinant pretreatment CT findings that can predict surgical intervention for patients suffering from corpus luteal cyst rupture with hemoperitoneum. From January 2009 to December 2014, a total of 106 female patients (mean age, 26.1 years; range, 17–44 years) who visited the emergency room of our institute for acute abdominal pain and were subsequently diagnosed with ruptured corpus luteal cyst with hemoperitoneum were included in the retrospective study. The analysis of CT findings included cyst size, cyst shape, sentinel clot sign, ring of fire sign, hemoperitoneum depth, active bleeding in portal phase and attenuation of hemoperitoneum. The comparison of CT findings between the surgery and conservative management groups was performed with the Mann-Whitney U test or chi-square test. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant CT findings in predicting surgical intervention for a ruptured cyst. Comparative analysis revealed that the presence of active bleeding and the hemoperitoneum depth were significantly different between the surgery and conservative management groups and were confirmed as significant CT findings for predicting surgery, with adjusted odds ratio (ORs) of 3.773 and 1.318, respectively (p < 0.01). On the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis for hemoperitoneum depth, the optimal cut-off value was 5.8 cm with 73.7% sensitivity and 58.6% specificity (Az = 0.711, p = 0.004). In cases with a hemoperitoneum depth > 5.8 cm and concurrent active bleeding, the OR for surgery increased to 5.786. The presence of active bleeding and the hemoperitoneum depth on a pretreatment CT scan can be predictive warning signs of surgery for a patient with a ruptured corpus luteal cyst with hemoperitoneum.

  1. Predicting the outcome of badminton matches based on network analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Hribernik, Matjaž

    2014-01-01

    The expansion of World Wide Web and faster access to the Internet is changing its primary use. Websites contain a lot more information that can be acquired and processed. Such sites are also the ones that provide results for various competitions in sport. Dealing with sport statistics is well spread among fans and journalists, as well as sport analysts. The purpose of this thesis is the prediction of rank and total points scored by badminton players in Slovenia on a virtual ranking that is ba...

  2. Predicting outcome in term neonates with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy using simplified MR criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jyoti, Rajeev; O' Neil, Ross [Canberra Hospital, Medical Imaging, Canberra, ACT (Australia)

    2006-01-01

    MRI is an established investigation in the evaluation of neonates with suspected hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE). However, its role as a predictor of neurodevelopmental outcome remains complex. To establish reproducible simplified MR criteria and evaluate their role in predicting neurodevelopmental outcome in term neonates with HIE. Term neonates with suspected HIE had MRI at 7-10 days of age. MR scans were interpreted according to new simplified criteria by two radiologists blinded to the clinical course and outcome. The new simplified criteria allocated grade 1 to cases with no central and less than 10% peripheral change, grade 2 to those with less than 30% central and/or 10-30% peripheral area change, and grade 3 to those with more than 30% central or peripheral change. MRI changes were compared with clinical neurodevelopmental outcome evaluated prospectively at 1 year of age. Neurodevelopmental outcome was based upon the DQ score (revised Griffith's) and cerebral palsy on neurological assessment. Of 20 subjects, all those showing severe (grade 3) MR changes (35%) died or had poor neurodevelopmental outcome. Subjects with a normal MR scan or with scans showing only mild (grade 1) MR changes (55%) had normal outcomes. One subject showing moderate (grade 2) changes on MRI had a moderate outcome (5%), while another had an atypical pattern of MR changes with a normal outcome (5%). Assessment of full-term neonates with suspected HIE using the simplified MR criteria is highly predictive of neurodevelopmental outcome. (orig.)

  3. Using General Outcome Measures to Predict Student Performance on State-Mandated Assessments: An Applied Approach for Establishing Predictive Cutscores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Michael; Dufore, Emily; McDougal, James

    2012-01-01

    Cutscores for reading and math (general outcome measures) to predict passage on New York state-mandated assessments were created by using a freely available Excel workbook. The authors used linear regression to create the cutscores and diagnostic indicators were provided. A rationale and procedure for using this method is outlined. This method…

  4. Teachers' Perceptions of Their Working Conditions: How Predictive of Policy-Relevant Outcomes? Working Paper 33

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Helen F.

    2009-01-01

    This quantitative study uses data from North Carolina to examine the extent to which survey based perceptions of working conditions are predictive of policy-relevant outcomes, independent of other school characteristics such as the demographic mix of the school's students. Working conditions emerge as highly predictive of teachers' stated…

  5. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  6. The Role of Teachers' Support in Predicting Students' Motivation and Achievement Outcomes in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Solmon, Melinda A.; Gu, Xiangli

    2012-01-01

    Examining how teachers' beliefs and behaviors predict students' motivation and achievement outcomes in physical education is an area of increasing research interest. Guided by the expectancy-value model and self-determination theory, the major purpose of this study was to examine the predictive strength of teachers' autonomy, competence, and…

  7. Infant Temperament and Maternal Parenting Self-efficacy Predict Child Weight Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Anzman-Frasca, Stephanie; Stifter, Cynthia A.; Paul, Ian M.; Birch, Leann L.

    2013-01-01

    Relationships between infant negative reactivity and self-regulation, parenting self-efficacy, and child weight outcomes were examined. Greater observed negative reactivity predicted more child weight gain when mothers had lower parenting self-efficacy. Lower mother-reported self-regulation predicted a greater child weight status. Results highlight potential early risk/protective factors.

  8. Do Patient Characteristics Predict Outcome of Psychodynamic Psychotherapy for Social Anxiety Disorder?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jörg Wiltink

    Full Text Available Little is known about patient characteristics as predictors for outcome in manualized short term psychodynamic psychotherapy (PDT. No study has addressed which patient variables predict outcome of PDT for social anxiety disorder.In the largest multicenter trial on psychotherapy of social anxiety (SA to date comparing cognitive therapy, PDT and wait list condition N = 230 patients were assigned to receive PDT, of which N = 166 completed treatment. Treatment outcome was assessed based on diverse parameters such as endstate functioning, remission, response, and drop-out. The relationship between patient characteristics (demographic variables, mental co-morbidity, personality, interpersonal problems and outcome was analysed using logistic and linear regressions.Pre-treatment SA predicted up to 39 percent of variance of outcome. Only few additional baseline characteristics predicted better treatment outcome (namely, lower comorbidity and interpersonal problems with a limited proportion of incremental variance (5.5 to 10 percent, while, e.g., shame, self-esteem or harm avoidance did not.We argue that the central importance of pre-treatment symptom severity for predicting outcomes should advocate alternative treatment strategies (e.g. longer treatments, combination of psychotherapy and medication in those who are most disturbed. Given the relatively small amount of variance explained by the other patient characteristics, process variables and patient-therapist interaction should additionally be taken into account in future research.Controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN53517394.

  9. Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

    2017-08-30

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

  10. Hypoalbuminaemia predicts outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempny, Aleksander; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Alonso-Gonzalez, Rafael; Uebing, Anselm; Rafiq, Isma; Li, Wei; Swan, Lorna; Hooper, James; Donovan, Jackie; Wort, Stephen J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos

    2015-01-01

    Background In patients with acquired heart failure, hypoalbuminaemia is associated with increased risk of death. The prevalence of hypoproteinaemia and hypoalbuminaemia and their relation to outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) remains, however, unknown. Methods Data on patients with ACHD who underwent blood testing in our centre within the last 14 years were collected. The relation between laboratory, clinical or demographic parameters at baseline and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 2886 patients with ACHD were included. Mean age was 33.3 years (23.6–44.7) and 50.1% patients were men. Median plasma albumin concentration was 41.0 g/L (38.0–44.0), whereas hypoalbuminaemia (disease complexity, hypoalbuminaemia remained a significant predictor of death. Conclusions Hypoalbuminaemia is common in patients with ACHD and is associated with a threefold increased risk of risk of death. Hypoalbuminaemia, therefore, should be included in risk-stratification algorithms as it may assist management decisions and timing of interventions in the growing ACHD population. PMID:25736048

  11. Leukocytosis and neutrophilia predicts outcome in anal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schernberg, Antoine; Escande, Alexandre; Rivin Del Campo, Eleonor; Ducreux, Michel; Nguyen, France; Goere, Diane; Chargari, Cyrus; Deutsch, Eric

    2017-01-01

    Leukocytosis and neutrophilia could be the tip of the iceberg in the inflammatory tumor microenvironment. We aimed to validate their prognostic significance in a cohort of patients treated with definitive chemoradiation for anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Clinical records from all consecutive patients treated in a single institution between 2006 and 2016 with curative-intent radiotherapy were retrospectively analyzed. Leukocytosis and neutrophilia, defined as leukocyte or neutrophil count over 10,000 and 7500/mm(3), respectively, were studied in terms of overall survival (OS), progression (PFS), locoregional (LFS) and distant (DFS)-free survival. We identified 103 non-metastatic HIV-negative patients, with concurrent chemotherapy use in 78%. Twelve and 8% displayed baseline leukocytosis and neutrophilia, respectively. Estimated 3-year OS and PFS were 88% and 67%, respectively. In univariate analysis, both leukocytosis and neutrophilia were strongly associated with inferior OS, PFS, LFS and DFS (p<0.01). In multivariate analysis, leukocytosis and neutrophilia remained strongly associated with patient outcome (p<0.01), independently from tumor T and N-stage. Anemia was an independent predictor of worse OS and PFS, while chemoradiation overall treatment time below 50days improved PFS. Leukocytosis and neutrophilia are strong prognostic factors for OS, PFS, LFS and DFS in anal cancer treated with chemoradiation. These biomarkers could help identify patients with higher risk of tumor relapse that require treatment intensification. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Prediction of outcome after diagnosis of metachronous contralateral breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernö Mårten

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although 2-20% of breast cancer patients develop a contralateral breast cancer (CBC, prognosis after CBC is still debated. Using a unique patient cohort, we have investigated whether time interval to second breast cancer (BC2 and mode of detection are associated to prognosis. Methods Information on patient-, tumour-, treatment-characteristics, and outcome was abstracted from patients' individual charts for all patients diagnosed with metachronous CBC in the Southern Healthcare Region of Sweden from 1977-2007. Distant disease-free survival (DDFS and risk of distant metastases were primary endpoints. Results The cohort included 723 patients with metachronous contralateral breast cancer as primary breast cancer event. Patients with less than three years to BC2 had a significantly impaired DDFS (p = 0.01, and in sub-group analysis, this effect was seen primarily in patients aged Conclusions In a large cohort of patients with CBC, we found the time interval to BC2 to be a strong prognostic factor for DDFS in young women and mode of detection to be related to risk of distant metastases. Future studies of tumour biology of BC2 in relation to prognostic factors found in the present study can hopefully provide biological explanations to these findings.

  13. Is blood pressure during the night more predictive of cardiovascular outcome than during the day?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Yan; Boggia, Jose; Thijs, Lutgarde;

    2008-01-01

    in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. Using Cox models, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for cohort and cardiovascular risk factors. Over 9.6 years (median), 983 deaths and 943 cardiovascular events occurred. Nighttime BP predicted mortality outcomes (HR, 1.18-1.24; P.... Conversely, daytime systolic (HR, 0.84; Ppredicted only noncardiovascular mortality after adjustment for nighttime BP. Both daytime BP and nighttime BP consistently predicted all cardiovascular events (HR, 1.11-1.33; P....01). Daytime BP lost its prognostic significance for cardiovascular events in patients on antihypertensive treatment. Adjusted for the 24-h BP, NDR predicted mortality (P

  14. Human experts' and a fuzzy model's predictions of outcomes of scoliosis treatment: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, Eric; Pedrycz, Witold; Lou, Edmond

    2015-03-01

    Brace treatment is the most commonly used nonsurgical treatment for adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis. However, brace treatment is not always successful and the factors influencing its success are not completely clear. This makes treatment outcome difficult to predict. A computer model which can accurately predict treatment outcomes could potentially provide valuable treatment recommendations. This paper describes a fuzzy system that includes a prediction model and a decision support engine. The model was constructed using conditional fuzzy c-means clustering to discover patterns in retrospective patient data. The model's ability to predict treatment outcome was compared to the ability of eight Scoliosis experts. The model and experts each predicted treatment outcome retrospectively for 28 braced patients, and these predictions were compared to the actual outcomes. The model outperformed all but one expert individually and performed similarly to the experts as a group. These results suggest that the fuzzy model is capable of providing meaningful treatment recommendations. This study offers the first model for this application whose performance has been shown to be at or above the human expert level.

  15. Steinstrasse predictive factors and outcomes after extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarques Lucio II

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Urinary stone disease is a common medical problem. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL has been applied with high success and low complication rates. Steinstrasse (SS is a possible complication after SWL. The aim of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the factors and outcomes associated with SS after SWL. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We have prospectively evaluated 265 SWL sessions (2005-2009. Two lithotriptors were used randomly: Siemens Lithostar and Dornier Compact S. All patients had imaging exams after 30 and 90 days or according to symptoms. RESULTS: SS was observed in 14 (5.3% out of 265 SWL procedures (n = 175 patients, 51.5% women/48.5% men, mean ± SD age = 46.3 ± 15.5 years. SS was more common after SWL for pelviureteral calculi rather than caliceal stones (p = 0.036. There was a trend toward more occurrences of SS after SWL for larger stone area (> 200 mm², p = 0.072. Preoperative ureteral stent didn't prevent SS. SWL machine, intensity, number of pulses and frequency were not associated with SS formation. Post-SWL pain, fever and gravel elimination were factors associated with SS (p = 0.021; p = 0.011; p = 0.078. When SS occurred, treatment modalities included Medical Expulsive Therapy (MET, ureteroscopy and SWL. CONCLUSIONS: Steinstrasse is an uncommon event after SWL and seems to occur more frequently with larger pelviureteral stones. Impaction of stones is more frequent in the middle ureter. All patients should be followed after SWL, but SS should be specially suspected if there is macroscopic gravel elimination, flank pain and/or fever. When SS occurs, treatment should be promptly introduced, including medical expulsive therapy, surgical approach or SWL in selected cases. Further prospective studies are awaited to evaluated preventive measures for SS occurrence.

  16. Management outcome of acute urinary retention: model of prediction.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Daly, Padraig

    2012-01-31

    OBJECTIVES: To assess for predictors of outcome in patients presenting with acute urinary retention (AUR). METHODS: A study was performed in our unit to evaluate trial without catheter (TWOC) and successive management. We assessed for predictors of surgical or medical management, which included: age, volume drained at time of catheterisation, cause of retention, serum creatinine, success of trial of voiding, co-morbidities, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and prostate size on digital rectal examination (DRE). RESULTS: 72 men were entered into the study over an 18-month period: 27 had a successful first TWOC, 20 patients had a second TWOC, and 6 were successful. In total, 31 of the 33 patients with a successful TWOC remained on alpha-blockers without a further episode of AUR within a minimum of 6 months\\' follow-up. Patients failing TWOC were managed by transurethral resection of the prostate (n = 22), long-term catheterisation (n = 15) or prostatic stents (n = 3), and 1 patient died prior to intervention. Three predictors were significant on multivariate analysis: PSA (>2.9 ng\\/ml), prostate size on DRE (large) and volume drained at time of catheterisation (>or=1,000 ml). CONCLUSION: Patients with elevated PSA (>2.9 ng\\/ml), a large prostate size on DRE and a volume drained at time of catheterisation >1,000 ml are best managed by surgical intervention, while those with volumes drained at time of catheterisation of <1,000 ml, a PSA

  17. Accept or Reject? Predicting Ideation Outcomes through Enterprise Social Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozaidi Nik Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Implementing social media in the workplace may make it easier for employees to participate in knowledge sharing activities such as Q&A and ideation. However, vetting the quality of answers and ideas becomes more complex when anyone in the company can contribute. Research on the use of social media for Q&A has shown that certain characteristics and reputation algorithms can help determine the best answers. Less is known about the ideation process and the way it plays out in social media. This paper explores the use of enterprise social media (ESM for ideation by employees in a large Russian organization distributed across nine time zones. In particular, we explore which characteristics of both ideas and their contributors predict whether ideas get accepted or rejected. Our analysis is based on logistic regression analysis of a sample of 488 ideas contributed in an ESM tool used in the organization as well as a content analysis of the types of ideas generated. Our results suggest that rather than being truly democratic and decentralized, ideation in ESM is driven by those in (or proximate to positions of organizational power.

  18. Migration Phenotype of Brain-Cancer Cells Predicts Patient Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris L. Smith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Glioblastoma multiforme is a heterogeneous and infiltrative cancer with dismal prognosis. Studying the migratory behavior of tumor-derived cell populations can be informative, but it places a high premium on the precision of in vitro methods and the relevance of in vivo conditions. In particular, the analysis of 2D cell migration may not reflect invasion into 3D extracellular matrices in vivo. Here, we describe a method that allows time-resolved studies of primary cell migration with single-cell resolution on a fibrillar surface that closely mimics in vivo 3D migration. We used this platform to screen 14 patient-derived glioblastoma samples. We observed that the migratory phenotype of a subset of cells in response to platelet-derived growth factor was highly predictive of tumor location and recurrence in the clinic. Therefore, migratory phenotypic classifiers analyzed at the single-cell level in a patient-specific way can provide high diagnostic and prognostic value for invasive cancers.

  19. Reliability of computerized cephalometric outcome predictions of mandibular set-back surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanović Neda

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A successful treatment outcome in dentofacial deformity patients commonly requires combined orthodontic-surgical therapy. This enables us to overcome functional, aesthetic and psychological problems. Since most patients state aesthetics as the primary motive for seeking therapy, cephalometric predictions of treatment outcome have become the essential part of treatment planning, especially in combined orthodontic-surgical cases. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of computerized orthognathic surgery outcome predictions generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software. Methods. The sample of the study consisted of 31 patients diagnosed with mandibular prognathism who were surgically treated at the Hospital for Maxillofacial Surgery in Belgrade. Investigation was done on lateral cephalograms made before and after surgical treatment. Cephalograms were digitized and analyzed using computer software. According to measurements made on superimposed pre- and postsurgical cephalograms, the patients were retreated within the software and the predictions were assessed by measuring seven angular and three linear parameters. Prediction measurements were then compared with the actual outcome. Results. Results showed statistically significant changes between posttreatment and predicted values for parameters referring to lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position. Conclusion. Computerized cephalometric predictions for hard-tissue structures in the sagittal and vertical planes, as well as the VTO parameters, generated using the Nemotec Dental Studio NX 2005 software are reliable, while lower lip and mentolabial sulcus position predictions are not reliable enough.

  20. Use of a Cumulative Risk Scale to Predict Poor Intellectual and Academic Outcomes in Childhood Epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanaugh, Brian C; Scarborough, Vanessa Ramos; Salorio, Cynthia F

    2016-06-01

    Discrete risk factors for poor outcomes in childhood epilepsy have been identified, but it is unclear whether the combined effect of several risk factors better predicts outcome. The Epilepsy Cumulative Risk Scale was developed to quantify cumulative risk for poor outcomes in childhood epilepsy. Participants included 156 clinic-referred children with epilepsy. The Epilepsy Cumulative Risk Scale was developed using variables previously associated with functional outcomes. Scale utility was examined through its association with intellectual and academic functioning. All Epilepsy Cumulative Risk Scale variables were significantly associated with functioning. The Total Score (ie, cumulative effect) was most strongly correlated with cognition and academic skills. A Total Score ≥ 5 had the best sensitivity and specificity for differentiating those at high risk for poor outcomes. The Epilepsy Cumulative Risk Scale shows promise as a practical, data-driven tool for quantification of cumulative risk for poor outcomes in childhood epilepsy and may be helpful in detecting those needing referral for additional services.

  1. Comparison of statistical and clinical predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas D Thompson

    Full Text Available To determine whether the predictions of functional outcome after ischemic stroke made at the bedside using a doctor's clinical experience were more or less accurate than the predictions made by clinical prediction models (CPMs.A prospective cohort study of nine hundred and thirty one ischemic stroke patients recruited consecutively at the outpatient, inpatient and emergency departments of the Western General Hospital, Edinburgh between 2002 and 2005. Doctors made informal predictions of six month functional outcome on the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS. Patients were followed up at six months with a validated postal questionnaire. For each patient we calculated the absolute predicted risk of death or dependence (OHS≥3 using five previously described CPMs. The specificity of a doctor's informal predictions of OHS≥3 at six months was good 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.97 and similar to CPMs (range 0.94 to 0.96; however the sensitivity of both informal clinical predictions 0.44 (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.49 and clinical prediction models (range 0.38 to 0.45 was poor. The prediction of the level of disability after stroke was similar for informal clinical predictions (ordinal c-statistic 0.74 with 95% CI 0.72 to 0.76 and CPMs (range 0.69 to 0.75. No patient or clinician characteristic affected the accuracy of informal predictions, though predictions were more accurate in outpatients.CPMs are at least as good as informal clinical predictions in discriminating between good and bad functional outcome after ischemic stroke. The place of these models in clinical practice has yet to be determined.

  2. Regional brain morphometry predicts memory rehabilitation outcome after traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strangman, Gary E; O'Neil-Pirozzi, Therese M; Supelana, Christina; Goldstein, Richard; Katz, Douglas I; Glenn, Mel B

    2010-01-01

    Cognitive deficits following traumatic brain injury (TBI) commonly include difficulties with memory, attention, and executive dysfunction. These deficits are amenable to cognitive rehabilitation, but optimally selecting rehabilitation programs for individual patients remains a challenge. Recent methods for quantifying regional brain morphometry allow for automated quantification of tissue volumes in numerous distinct brain structures. We hypothesized that such quantitative structural information could help identify individuals more or less likely to benefit from memory rehabilitation. Fifty individuals with TBI of all severities who reported having memory difficulties first underwent structural MRI scanning. They then participated in a 12 session memory rehabilitation program emphasizing internal memory strategies (I-MEMS). Primary outcome measures (HVLT, RBMT) were collected at the time of the MRI scan, immediately following therapy, and again at 1-month post-therapy. Regional brain volumes were used to predict outcome, adjusting for standard predictors (e.g., injury severity, age, education, pretest scores). We identified several brain regions that provided significant predictions of rehabilitation outcome, including the volume of the hippocampus, the lateral prefrontal cortex, the thalamus, and several subregions of the cingulate cortex. The prediction range of regional brain volumes were in some cases nearly equal in magnitude to prediction ranges provided by pretest scores on the outcome variable. We conclude that specific cerebral networks including these regions may contribute to learning during I-MEMS rehabilitation, and suggest that morphometric measures may provide substantial predictive value for rehabilitation outcome in other cognitive interventions as well.

  3. Regional brain morphometry predicts memory rehabilitation outcome after traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary E Strangman

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive deficits following traumatic brain injury (TBI commonly include difficulties with memory, attention, and executive dysfunction. These deficits are amenable to cognitive rehabilitation, but optimally selecting rehabilitation programs for individual patients remains a challenge. Recent methods for quantifying regional brain morphometry allow for automated quantification of tissue volumes in numerous distinct brain structures. We hypothesized that such quantitative structural information could help identify individuals more or less likely to benefit from memory rehabilitation. Fifty individuals with TBI of all severities who reported having memory difficulties first underwent structural MRI scanning. They then participated in a 12 session memory rehabilitation program emphasizing internal memory strategies (I-MEMS. Primary outcome measures (HVLT, RBMT were collected at the time of the MRI scan, immediately following therapy, and again at one month post-therapy. Regional brain volumes were used to predict outcome, adjusting for standard predictors (e.g., injury severity, age, education, pretest scores. We identified several brain regions that provided significant predictions of rehabilitation outcome, including the volume of the hippocampus, the lateral prefrontal cortex, the thalamus, and several subregions of the cingulate cortex. The prediction range of regional brain volumes were in some cases nearly equal in magnitude to prediction ranges provided by pretest scores on the outcome variable. We conclude that specific cerebral networks including these regions may contribute to learning during I-MEMS rehabilitation, and suggest that morphometric measures may provide substantial predictive value for rehabilitation outcome in other cognitive interventions as well.

  4. Predicting the Outcome of NBA Playoffs Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ge Cheng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the outcome of National Basketball Association (NBA matches poses a challenging problem of interest to the research community as well as the general public. In this article, we formalize the problem of predicting NBA game results as a classification problem and apply the principle of Maximum Entropy to construct an NBA Maximum Entropy (NBAME model that fits to discrete statistics for NBA games, and then predict the outcomes of NBA playoffs using the model. Our results reveal that the model is able to predict the winning team with 74.4% accuracy, outperforming other classical machine learning algorithms that could only afford a maximum prediction accuracy of 70.6% in the experiments that we performed.

  5. Clinical Scoring Systems in Predicting the Outcome of Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding; a Narrative Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanieh Ebrahimi Bakhtavar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of the outcome and severity of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB has significant importance in patient care, disposition, and determining the need for emergent endoscopy. Recent international recommendations endorse using scoring systems for management of non-variceal UGIB patients. To date, different scoring systems have been developed for predicting the risk of 30-day mortality and re-bleeding. We have discussed the screening performance characteristics of Baylor bleeding score, the Rockall risk scoring score, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center predictive index, Glasgow Blatchford score, T-score, and AIMS65 systems, in the present review.Based on the results of this survey, there are only 3 clinical decision rules that can predict the outcome of UGIB patients, independent from endoscopy. Among these, only Glasgow Blatchford score was highly sensitive for predicting the risk of 30-day mortality and re-bleeding, simultaneously. 

  6. PREDICTING THE MATCH OUTCOME IN ONE DAY INTERNATIONAL CRICKET MATCHES, WHILE THE GAME IS IN PROGRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Bailey

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Millions of dollars are wagered on the outcome of one day international (ODI cricket matches, with a large percentage of bets occurring after the game has commenced. Using match information gathered from all 2200 ODI matches played prior to January 2005, a range of variables that could independently explain statistically significant proportions of variation associated with the predicted run totals and match outcomes were created. Such variables include home ground advantage, past performances, match experience, performance at the specific venue, performance against the specific opposition, experience at the specific venue and current form. Using a multiple linear regression model, prediction variables were numerically weighted according to statistical significance and used to predict the match outcome. With the use of the Duckworth-Lewis method to determine resources remaining, at the end of each completed over, the predicted run total of the batting team could be updated to provide a more accurate prediction of the match outcome. By applying this prediction approach to a holdout sample of matches, the efficiency of the "in the run" wagering market could be assessed. Preliminary results suggest that the market is prone to overreact to events occurring throughout the course of the match, thus creating brief inefficiencies in the wagering market

  7. Predictive Modeling for End-of-Life Pain Outcome using Electronic Health Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodhi, Muhammad K.; Stifter, Janet; Yao, Yingwei; Ansari, Rashid; Kee-nan, Gail M.; Wilkie, Diana J.; Khokhar, Ashfaq A.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health record (EHR) systems are being widely used in the healthcare industry nowadays, mostly for monitoring the progress of the patients. EHR data analysis has become a big data problem as data is growing rapidly. Using a nursing EHR system, we built predictive models for determining what factors influence pain in end-of-life (EOL) patients. Utilizing different modeling techniques, we developed coarse-grained and fine-grained models to predict patient pain outcomes. The coarse-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each hospitalization, whereas fine-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each shift, thus providing a trajectory of predicted outcomes over the entire hospitalization. These models can help in determining effective treatments for individuals and groups of patients and support standardization of care where appropriate. Using these models may also lower the cost and increase the quality of end-of-life care. Results from these techniques show significantly accurate predictions. PMID:27500287

  8. Informal workplace learning among nurses: Organisational learning conditions and personal characteristics that predict learning outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The current study examines which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal workplace learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/methodology/approach. In total, 203 nurses completed a survey assessing their perception of the available learning conditions, the learning outcomes they acquired by executing the...

  9. Predicting the outcome of sciatica at short-term follow-up.

    OpenAIRE

    Vroomen, Patrick C. A. J.; de Krom, M C T F M; Knottnerus, J A

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of the clinical findings elicited in the patient presenting with sciatica is unknown. AIM: To investigate whether history and physical examination findings can predict outcome. DESIGN OF STUDY: Prospective study of prognostic factors. SETTING: A sample of primary care patients with sciatica. METHOD: Short-term favourable outcome was registered as improvement perceived by the patient after two weeks. Long-term failure was defined as eventual surgery or lack of ...

  10. Preoperative MRI findings predict two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Kuittinen

    Full Text Available To study the predictive value of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI findings for the two-year postoperative clinical outcome in lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.84 patients (mean age 63±11 years, male 43% with symptoms severe enough to indicate LSS surgery were included in this prospective observational single-center study. Preoperative MRI of the lumbar spine was performed with a 1.5-T unit. The imaging protocol conformed to the requirements of the American College of Radiology for the performance of MRI of the adult spine. Visual and quantitative assessment of MRI was performed by one experienced neuroradiologist. At the two-year postoperative follow-up, functional ability was assessed with the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI 0-100% and treadmill test (0-1000 m, pain symptoms with the overall Visual Analogue Scale (VAS 0-100 mm, and specific low back pain (LBP and specific leg pain (LP separately with a numeric rating scale from 0-10 (NRS-11. Satisfaction with the surgical outcome was also assessed.Preoperative severe central stenosis predicted postoperatively lower LP, LBP, and VAS when compared in patients with moderate central stenosis (p<0.05. Moreover, severe stenosis predicted higher postoperative satisfaction (p = 0.029. Preoperative scoliosis predicted an impaired outcome in the ODI (p = 0.031 and lowered the walking distance in the treadmill test (p = 0.001. The preoperative finding of only one stenotic level in visual assessment predicted less postoperative LBP when compared with patients having 2 or more stenotic levels (p = 0.026. No significant differences were detected between quantitative measurements and the patient outcome.Routine preoperative lumbar spine MRI can predict the patient outcome in a two-year follow up in patients with LSS surgery. Severe central stenosis and one-level central stenosis are predictors of good outcome. Preoperative finding of scoliosis may indicate worse functional ability.

  11. Do personality traits predict outcome of psychodynamically oriented psychosomatic inpatient treatment beyond initial symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinert, Christiane; Klein, Susanne; Leweke, Frank; Leichsenring, Falk

    2015-03-01

    Whether personality characteristics have an impact on treatment outcome is an important question in psychotherapy research. One of the most common approaches for the description of personality is the five-factor model of personality. Only few studies investigated whether patient personality as measured with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, Costa & McCrae [1992b]. Revised NEO-PI-R and NEO-FFI. Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Recources) predicts outcome. Results were inconsistent. Studies reporting personality to be predictive of outcome did not control for baseline symptoms, while studies controlling initial symptoms could not support these findings. We hypothesized that after taking into account baseline symptoms, the NEO-FFI would not predict outcome and tested this in a large sample of inpatients at a psychosomatic clinic. Naturalistic, non-controlled study using patients' data for multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of outcome. Data of 254 inpatients suffering primarily from depressive, anxiety, stress, and somatoform disorders were analysed. Personality was assessed at the beginning of therapy. For psychotherapy outcome, changes in anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), overall psychopathology (Symptom Checklist-90-R Global Severity Index [GSI]), and interpersonal problems (Inventory of Interpersonal Problems; IIP) were measured. The treatment resulted in significant decreases on all outcome measures corresponding to moderate to large effect sizes (HADS: d = 1.03; GSI: d = 0.90; IIP: d = 0.38). Consistent with our hypothesis, none of the personality domains predicted outcome when baseline symptoms were controlled for. Personality assessment at baseline does not seem to have an added value in the prediction of inpatient psychotherapy outcome beyond initial symptoms. Clinical implications Personality dimensions overlap with symptomatic distress. Rather than serve as predictors of

  12. Chronic Kidney Disease – Where Next? Predicting Outcomes and Planning Care Pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angharad Marks

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available With the introduction of the National Kidney Foundation Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative chronic kidney disease (CKD guidelines, CKD has been identified as common, particularly in the elderly. The outcomes for those with CKD can be poor: mortality, initiation of renal replacement therapy, and progressive deterioration in kidney function, with its associated complications. In young people with CKD, the risk of poor outcome is high and the social cost substantial, but the actual number of patients affected is relatively small. In the elderly, the risk of poor outcome is substantially lower, but due to the high prevalence of CKD the actual number of poor outcomes attributable to CKD is higher. Predicting which patients are at greatest risk, and being able to tailor care appropriately, has significant potential benefits. Risk prediction models in CKD are being developed and show promise but thus far have limitations. In this review we describe the pathway for developing and evaluating risk prediction tools, and consider what models we have for CKD prediction and where next.

  13. Hemizona Assay and Sperm Penetration Assay in the Prediction of IVF Outcome: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paraskevi Vogiatzi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The limited predictive value of semen analysis in achieving natural conception or in IVF outcome confirms the need for sperm function tests to determine optimal management. We reviewed HZA and SPA predictive power in IVF outcome, with statistical significance of diagnostic power of the assays. HZA was readily efficient in predicting IVF outcome, while evident inconsistency among the studies analysed framed the SPA’s role in male fertility evaluation. Considerable variation was noted in the diagnostic accuracy values of SPA with wide sensitivity (52–100%, specificity (0–100%, and PPV (18–100% and NPV (0–100% together with fluctuation and notable differentiation in methodology and cutoff values employed by each group. HZA methodology was overall consistent with minor variation in cutoff values and oocyte source, while data analysis reported strong correlation between HZA results with IVF outcome, high sensitivity (75–100%, good specificity (57–100%, and high PPV (79–100% and NPV (68–100%. HZA correlated well with IVF outcome and demonstrated better sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive power. Males with normal or slightly abnormal semen profiles could benefit by this intervention and could be evaluated prior to referral to assisted reproduction. HZA should be used in a sequential fashion with semen analysis and potentially other bioassays in an IVF setting.

  14. Predicting Outcome in Comatose Patients: The Role of EEG Reactivity to Quantifiable Electrical Stimuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To test the value of quantifiable electrical stimuli as a reliable method to assess electroencephalogram reactivity (EEG-R for the early prognostication of outcome in comatose patients. Methods. EEG was recorded in consecutive adults in coma after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR or stroke. EEG-R to standard electrical stimuli was tested. Each patient received a 3-month follow-up by the Glasgow-Pittsburgh cerebral performance categories (CPC or modified Rankin scale (mRS score. Results. Twenty-two patients met the inclusion criteria. In the CPR group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (positive predictive value (PPV, 85.7% and 4 of 5 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (negative predictive value (NPV, 80%. The sensitivity and specificity were 85.7% and 80%, respectively. In the stroke group, 6 of 7 patients with EEG-R had good outcomes (PPV, 85.7%; all of the 3 patients without EEG-R had poor outcomes (NPV, 100%. The sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 75%, respectively. Of all patients, the presence of EEG-R showed 92.3% sensitivity, 77.7% specificity, 85.7% PPV, and 87.5% NPV. Conclusion. EEG-R to quantifiable electrical stimuli might be a good positive predictive factor for the prognosis of outcome in comatose patients after CPR or stroke.

  15. Predicting survival outcomes using subsets of significant genes in prognostic marker studies with microarrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matsui Shigeyuki

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic markers hold great promise for refining our ability to establish precise prognostic prediction for diseases. The development of comprehensive gene expression microarray technology has allowed the selection of relevant marker genes from a large pool of candidate genes in early-phased, developmental prognostic marker studies. The primary analytical task in such studies is to select a small fraction of relevant genes, typically from a list of significant genes, for further investigation in subsequent studies. Results We develop a methodology for predicting survival outcomes using subsets of significant genes in prognostic marker studies with microarrays. Key components in this methodology include building prediction models, assessing predictive performance of prediction models, and assessing significance of prediction results. As particular specifications, we assume Cox proportional hazard models with a compound covariate. For assessing predictive accuracy, we propose to use the cross-validated log partial likelihood. To assess significance of prediction results, we apply permutation procedures in cross-validated prediction. As an additional key component peculiar to prognostic prediction, we also consider incorporation of standard prognostic factors. The methodology is evaluated using both simulated and real data. Conclusion The developed methodology for prognostic prediction using a subset of significant genes can provide new insights based on predictive capability, possibly incorporating standard prognostic factors, in selecting a fraction of relevant genes for subsequent studies.

  16. Conventional MRI features for predicting the clinical outcome of patients with invasive placenta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Shi, Hai-Bin; Yang, Zheng-Qiang; Zhou, Xin; Pan, Yi

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE We aimed to evaluate whether morphologic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features could help to predict the maternal outcome after uterine artery embolization (UAE)-assisted cesarean section (CS) in patients with invasive placenta previa. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed the MRI data of 40 pregnant women who have undergone UAE-assisted cesarean section due to suspected high risk of massive hemorrhage caused by invasive placenta previa. Patients were divided into two groups based on the maternal outcome (good-outcome group: minor hemorrhage and uterus preserved; poor-outcome group: significant hemorrhage or emergency hysterectomy). Morphologic MRI features were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the most valuable variables, and predictive value of the identified risk factor was determined. RESULTS Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging (P placenta percreta (P = 0.011), and placental cervical protrusion sign (P = 0.002) were more frequently observed in patients with poor outcome. Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging was the only significant predictor of poor maternal outcome in multivariate analysis (P = 0.020; odds ratio, 14.79), with 81.3% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity. CONCLUSION Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging might be a predictor of poor maternal outcome after UAE-assisted cesarean section in patients with invasive placenta previa. PMID:28345524

  17. All That Glitters … Dissociating Attention and Outcome Expectancy From Prediction Errors Signals

    OpenAIRE

    Roesch, Matthew R.; Calu, Donna J; Esber, Guillem R.; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey

    2010-01-01

    Initially reported in dopamine neurons, neural correlates of prediction errors have now been shown in a variety of areas, including orbitofrontal cortex, ventral striatum, and amygdala. Yet changes in neural activity to an outcome or cues that precede it can reflect other processes. We review the recent literature and show that although activity in dopamine neurons appears to signal prediction errors, similar activity in orbitofrontal cortex, basolateral amygdala, and ventral striatum does no...

  18. Predicting Outcome 12 Months after Mild Traumatic Brain Injury in Patients Admitted to a Neurosurgery Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrøm, Torgeir; Kaufmann, Tobias; Andelic, Nada; Soberg, Helene L; Sigurdardottir, Solrun; Helseth, Eirik; Andreassen, Ole A; Westlye, Lars T

    2017-01-01

    Accurate outcome prediction models for patients with mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) are key for prognostic assessment and clinical decision-making. Using multivariate machine learning, we tested the unique and added predictive value of (1) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based brain morphometric and volumetric characterization at 4-week postinjury and (2) demographic, preinjury, injury-related, and postinjury variables on 12-month outcomes, including global functioning level, postconcussion symptoms, and mental health in patients with MTBI. A prospective, cohort study of patients (n = 147) aged 16-65 years with a 12-month follow-up. T1-weighted 3 T MRI data were processed in FreeSurfer, yielding accurate cortical reconstructions for surface-based analyses of cortical thickness, area, and volume, and brain segmentation for subcortical and global brain volumes. The 12-month outcome was defined as a composite score using a principal component analysis including the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended, Rivermead Postconcussion Questionnaire, and Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Using leave-one-out cross-validation and permutation testing, we tested and compared three prediction models: (1) MRI model, (2) clinical model, and (3) MRI and clinical combined. We found a strong correlation between observed and predicted outcomes for the clinical model (r = 0.55, p model performed at the chance level (r = 0.03, p = 0.80) and the combined model (r = 0.45, p model. Univariate correlation analyses revealed the strongest association with outcome for postinjury factors of posttraumatic stress (Posttraumatic Symptom Scale-10, r = 0.61), psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, r = 0.52), and widespread pain (r = 0.43) assessed at 8 weeks. We found no added predictive value of MRI-based measures of brain cortical morphometry and subcortical volumes over and above demographic and clinical features.

  19. Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Detlef F. Sprinz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

  20. Admission Laboratory Results to Enhance Prediction Models of Postdischarge Outcomes in Cardiac Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pine, Michael; Fry, Donald E; Hannan, Edward L; Naessens, James M; Whitman, Kay; Reband, Agnes; Qian, Feng; Schindler, Joseph; Sonneborn, Mark; Roland, Jaclyn; Hyde, Linda; Dennison, Barbara A

    Predictive modeling for postdischarge outcomes of inpatient care has been suboptimal. This study evaluated whether admission numerical laboratory data added to administrative models from New York and Minnesota hospitals would enhance the prediction accuracy for 90-day postdischarge deaths without readmission (PD-90) and 90-day readmissions (RA-90) following inpatient care for cardiac patients. Risk-adjustment models for the prediction of PD-90 and RA-90 were designed for acute myocardial infarction, percutaneous cardiac intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, and congestive heart failure. Models were derived from hospital claims data and were then enhanced with admission laboratory predictive results. Case-level discrimination, goodness of fit, and calibration were used to compare administrative models (ADM) and laboratory predictive models (LAB). LAB models for the prediction of PD-90 were modestly enhanced over ADM, but negligible benefit was seen for RA-90. A consistent predictor of PD-90 and RA-90 was prolonged length of stay outliers from the index hospitalization.

  1. Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Detlef F. Sprinz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.

  2. Prefracture functional level evaluated by the New Mobility Score predicts in-hospital outcome after hip fracture surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten T; Foss, Nicolai Bang; Ekdahl, Charlotte

    2010-01-01

    Clinicians need valid and easily applicable predictors of outcome in patients with hip fracture. Adjusting for previously established predictors, we determined the predictive value of the New Mobility score (NMS) for in-hospital outcome in patients with hip fracture....

  3. Predicting optimal outcomes in cognitive therapy or interpersonal psychotherapy for depressed individuals using the personalized advantage index approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J.H. Huibers; Z.D. Cohen; L.H.J.M. Lemmens; A. Arntz; F.P.M.L. Peeters; P. Cuijpers; R.J. DeRubeis

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Although psychotherapies for depression produce equivalent outcomes, individual patients respond differently to different therapies. Predictors of outcome have been identified in the context of randomized trials, but this information has not been used to predict which treatment works b

  4. Machine learning for outcome prediction of acute ischemic stroke post intra-arterial therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi, Hamed; Dowling, Richard; Yan, Bernard; Mitchell, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. Accurately predicting stroke outcome from a set of predictive variables may identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches, leading to decreased morbidity. Logistic regression models allow for the identification and validation of predictive variables. However, advanced machine learning algorithms offer an alternative, in particular, for large-scale multi-institutional data, with the advantage of easily incorporating newly available data to improve prediction performance. Our aim was to design and compare different machine learning methods, capable of predicting the outcome of endovascular intervention in acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke. We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of acute ischaemic stroke treated by endovascular intervention. Using SPSS®, MATLAB®, and Rapidminer®, classical statistics as well as artificial neural network and support vector algorithms were applied to design a supervised machine capable of classifying these predictors into potential good and poor outcomes. These algorithms were trained, validated and tested using randomly divided data. We included 107 consecutive acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke patients treated by endovascular technique. Sixty-six were male and the mean age of 65.3. All the available demographic, procedural and clinical factors were included into the models. The final confusion matrix of the neural network, demonstrated an overall congruency of ∼ 80% between the target and output classes, with favourable receiving operative characteristics. However, after optimisation, the support vector machine had a relatively better performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.064 (SD: ± 0.408). We showed promising accuracy of outcome prediction, using supervised machine learning algorithms, with potential for incorporation of larger multicenter datasets, likely further improving prediction. Finally, we

  5. Machine learning for outcome prediction of acute ischemic stroke post intra-arterial therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamed Asadi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. Accurately predicting stroke outcome from a set of predictive variables may identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches, leading to decreased morbidity. Logistic regression models allow for the identification and validation of predictive variables. However, advanced machine learning algorithms offer an alternative, in particular, for large-scale multi-institutional data, with the advantage of easily incorporating newly available data to improve prediction performance. Our aim was to design and compare different machine learning methods, capable of predicting the outcome of endovascular intervention in acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of acute ischaemic stroke treated by endovascular intervention. Using SPSS®, MATLAB®, and Rapidminer®, classical statistics as well as artificial neural network and support vector algorithms were applied to design a supervised machine capable of classifying these predictors into potential good and poor outcomes. These algorithms were trained, validated and tested using randomly divided data. RESULTS: We included 107 consecutive acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke patients treated by endovascular technique. Sixty-six were male and the mean age of 65.3. All the available demographic, procedural and clinical factors were included into the models. The final confusion matrix of the neural network, demonstrated an overall congruency of ∼ 80% between the target and output classes, with favourable receiving operative characteristics. However, after optimisation, the support vector machine had a relatively better performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.064 (SD: ± 0.408. DISCUSSION: We showed promising accuracy of outcome prediction, using supervised machine learning algorithms, with potential for incorporation of larger multicenter

  6. Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van den Berg (Tobias); M.W. Heymans (Martijn); O. Leone; D. Vergouw (David); J. Hayden (Jill); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); H.C. de Vet (Henrica C)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of

  7. Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, T. van den; Heymans, M.W.; Leone, S.S.; Vergouw, D.; Hayden, J.A.; Verhagen, A.P.; Vet, H.C.W. de

    2013-01-01

    Background: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of reviews

  8. Ten problems and solutions when predicting individual outcome from lesion site after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Cathy J; Hope, Thomas M; Seghier, Mohamed L

    2017-01-15

    In this paper, we consider solutions to ten of the challenges faced when trying to predict an individual's functional outcome after stroke on the basis of lesion site. A primary goal is to find lesion-outcome associations that are consistently observed in large populations of stroke patients because consistent associations maximise confidence in future individualised predictions. To understand and control multiple sources of inter-patient variability, we need to systematically investigate each contributing factor and how each factor depends on other factors. This requires very large cohorts of patients, who differ from one another in typical and measurable ways, including lesion site, lesion size, functional outcome and time post stroke (weeks to decades). These multivariate investigations are complex, particularly when the contributions of different variables interact with one another. Machine learning algorithms can help to identify the most influential variables and indicate dependencies between different factors. Multivariate lesion analyses are needed to understand how the effect of damage to one brain region depends on damage or preservation in other brain regions. Such data-led investigations can reveal predictive relationships between lesion site and outcome. However, to understand and improve the predictions we need explanatory models of the neural networks and degenerate pathways that support functions of interest. This will entail integrating the results of lesion analyses with those from functional imaging (fMRI, MEG), transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and diffusor tensor imaging (DTI) studies of healthy participants and patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Utility of selected MMPI-2 scales in the outcome prediction for patients with chronic back pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vendrig, A.A.; Derksen, J.J.L.; Mey, H.R.A. De

    1999-01-01

    The predictive utility of selected scales from the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2; J. N. Butcher, W. G. Dahlstrom, J. R. Graham, A. Tellegen, & B. Kaemmer, 1989) was examined in relation to a number of physical and psychosocial measures of treatment outcome in patients

  10. A mathematical outcome prediction model in severe head injury : a pilot study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukherjee K

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available 103 patients of head injury, with a Glasgow coma scale (GCS score of 8 or less, were studied prospectively. GCS score, brain stem reflexes, motor score, reaction level scale, and Glasgow Liege scale were evaluated as prognostic variables. Linear logistic regression analysis was used to obtain coefficients of these variables and mathematical formulae developed to predict outcome in individual patients.

  11. T2-relaxometry predicts outcome of DBS in idiopathic Parkinson's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarja Lönnfors-Weitzel, MD

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: The lower boundaries of T2r in the STN predict motor outcome in DBS. T2r asymmetry in the STN is not associated with increased clinical symptoms, but with response to therapy. Thus, patients with very low T2r may be inappropriate candidates for DBS.

  12. Predicting the outcome of sciatica at short-term follow-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vroomen, PCAJ; de Krom, MCTFM; Knottnerus, JA

    2002-01-01

    Background:The prognostic value of the clinical findings elicited in the patient presenting with sciatica is unknown. Aim: To investigate whether history and physical examination findings can predict outcome. Design of study: Prospective study of prognostic factors Setting: A sample of primary care

  13. Memory and executive function predict mobility rehabilitation outcome after lower-limb amputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian F; Evans, Jonathan J

    2009-01-01

    Post-amputation rehabilitation is physically and cognitively demanding. Understanding which specific cognitive domains mediate outcome is critical to the development of interventions. A cohort undergoing post-amputation rehabilitation was assessed before limb fitting and followed up at 6 months (n = 34). The average age was 60.69 years (SD = 13.98). 82.4% of the sample was male. 79.4% had amputations because of peripheral arterial disease. Memory, visuospatial function, executive function, praxis, emotion and language were assessed at Time 1 (first prosthetic clinic attendance). Time 1 data were also gathered on aetiology, level of amputation, comorbidities, pain and demographics. Six month outcomes were the locomotor capability index (LCI), the special interest group in amputee medicine (SIGAM) mobility grades and self reported hours of use. The LCI at 6 months was significantly predicted in regression analyses by a measure of visual memory (figure recall) (adjusted R2 = 24.8%, df = 32, zbeta = 0.52, p = 0.002. Hours of use were predicted by the verbal fluency test total (adjusted R2 = 17.1%, df= 26, zbeta = 0.45, p = 0.017). SIGAM mobility grades were predicted by a combination of immediate verbal memory (story recall), age, level of amputation and presence of pain (adjusted R2 = 58.2, df = 30, zbeta = 0.52, p = 0.000). Neuropsychological and clinical variables predict a large amount of 6 month outcome variance. Cognitive difficulties may be considered mediators of poor outcome.

  14. Predicting mobility outcome one year after stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Port, I.G. van de; Kwakkel, G.; Schepers, V.P.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic model to predict mobility outcome one year post-stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in patients with a first-ever stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation. PATIENTS: A total of 217 patients with stroke (mean age 58 years) following inpatient rehabilitation

  15. Prediction of poor outcome within the first 3 days of postanoxic coma.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zandbergen, E.G.; Hijdra, A.; Koelman, J.H.; Hart, A.A.M.; Vos, P.E.; Verbeek, M.M.; Haan, R.J. de

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal timing of somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) recordings and the additional value of clinical and biochemical variables for the prediction of poor outcome in patients who remain comatose after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). METHODS: A prospective cohort st

  16. Glial and neuronal proteins in serum predict outcome after severe traumatic brain injury.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, P.E.; Lamers, K.J.B.; Hendriks, J.C.M.; Haaren, M. van; Beems, T.; Zimmerman, C.; Geel, W.J.A. van; Reus, H.P.M. de; Biert, J.; Verbeek, M.M.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the ability of glial (glial fibrillary acidic protein [GFAP] and S100b) and neuronal (neuron specific enolase [NSE]) protein levels in peripheral blood to predict outcome after severe traumatic brain injury. METHODS: Eighty-five patients with severe traumatic brain injury (admiss

  17. Predictability of psychic outcome for exercise training and exercise training including relaxation therapy after myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J. Duivenvoorden (Hugo); J. van Dixhoorn (J.)

    1991-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract Predictability of the psychic outcome for two cardiac rehabilitation programmes was investigated in 119 myocardial infarction patients. They were randomly assigned to either a five-week daily exercise training or to an identical training in combination with six sessions

  18. Predictive value of cognition for different domains of outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holthausen, Esther A. E.; Wiersma, Durk; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, Rene S.; Dingemans, Peter M.; Schene, Aart H.; van den Bosch, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to see whether and how cognition predicts outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia in a large range of domains such as course of illness, self-care, interpersonal functioning, vocational functioning and need for care. At inclusion, 115 recent-onset patients were tested on a co

  19. Outcome prediction in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury: a focus on computed tomography variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, B.; Beems, T.; Vliet, T.M. van der; Vugt, A.B. van; Hoedemaekers, C.W.; Horn, J.; Franschman, G.; Haitsma, I.; Naalt, J. van der; Andriessen, T.M.J.C.; Borm, G.F.; Vos, P.E.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: With this study we aimed to design validated outcome prediction models in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) using demographic, clinical, and radiological parameters. METHODS: Seven hundred consecutive moderate or severe TBI patients were included in this observational pros

  20. Outcome Prediction in Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury : A Focus on Computed Tomography Variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, Bram; Beems, Tjemme; van der Vliet, Ton M.; van Vugt, Arie B.; Hoedemaekers, Cornelia; Horn, Janneke; Franschman, Gaby; Haitsma, Ian; van der Naalt, Joukje; Andriessen, Teuntje M. J. C.; Borm, George F.; Vos, Pieter E.

    2013-01-01

    With this study we aimed to design validated outcome prediction models in moderate and severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) using demographic, clinical, and radiological parameters. Seven hundred consecutive moderate or severe TBI patients were included in this observational prospective cohort study.

  1. Can the outcome of pelvic-floor rehabilitation in patients with fecal incontinence be predicted?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.P. Terra; M. Deutekom (Marije); A.C. Dobben (Annette); C.G.M.I. Baeten; L.W.M. Janssen (Lucas); G.E. Boeckxstaens (Guy); A.F. Engel (Alexander); R.J.F. Felt-Bersma; J.F.W. Slors; M.F. Gerhards (Michael); A.B. Bijnen (Bart); E. Everhardt; W.R. Schouten (Ruud); B. Berghmans; P.M.M. Bossuyt (Patrick); J. Stoker (Jacob)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractPurpose: Pelvic-floor rehabilitation does not provide the same degree of relief in all fecal incontinent patients. We aimed at studying prospectively the ability of tests to predict the outcome of pelvic-floor rehabilitation in patients with fecal incontinence. Materials and methods: Two

  2. Predicting major outcomes in type 1 diabetes: a model development and validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soedamah-Muthu, S.S.; Vergouwe, Y.; Costacou, T.; Miller, R.G.; Zgibor, J.; Chaturvedi, N.; Snell-Bergeon, J.K.; Maahs, D.M.; Rewers, M.; Forsblom, C.; Harjutsalo, V.; Groop, P.H.; Fuller, J.H.; Moons, K.G.M.; Orchard, T.J.

    2014-01-01

    Aims/hypothesis Type 1 diabetes is associated with a higher risk of major vascular complications and death. A reliable method that predicted these outcomes early in the disease process would help in risk classification. We therefore developed such a prognostic model and quantified its performance in

  3. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables

  4. Prediction of outcome in adults with severe falciparum malaria: a new scoring system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mishra Rajalaxmi

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality of falciparum malaria is related to the presence of severe complications. However, no scoring system is available to predict outcome of these patients. The aim of this paper was to devise a simple and reliable malaria prognosis score (MPS to predict the outcome of adults with severe malaria. Methods All slide-positive severe falciparum malaria patients admitted to Ispat General Hospital were studied. Eight clinical parameters that may potentially differentiate or influence the outcome were identified to predict recovery or death Results Of 248 severe malaria cases, 35 died. There were 212 adults (34 deaths and 36 children (one death. The malaria score for adults was (MSA = 1(severe anaemia + 2 (acute renal failure + 3(Respiratory distress +4 (cerebral malaria. The MSA ranges from 0 to 10. The mortality was 2% for MSA 0 – 2; 10% for MSA 3–4, 40% for MSA 5–6 and 90% for MSA 7 or more. The sensitivity is 89.9% and positive predictive value is 94.1% when 5 is taken as the cut off value. Conclusion MSA is a simple and sensitive predictor. It can be administered rapidly and repeatedly to prognosticate the outcome of severe malaria in adults. It can help the treating doctor to assess the patient as well as to communicate to the relatives of the patients about prognosis. The score needs revalidation in other geographical areas.

  5. EEG Estimates of Cognitive Workload and Engagement Predict Math Problem Solving Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Carole R.; Galan, Federico Cirett

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, the authors focused on the use of electroencephalography (EEG) data about cognitive workload and sustained attention to predict math problem solving outcomes. EEG data were recorded as students solved a series of easy and difficult math problems. Sequences of attention and cognitive workload estimates derived from the EEG…

  6. Could Learning Outcomes of the First Course in Accounting Predict Overall Academic Performance?

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    Alanzi, Khalid A.; Alfraih, Mishari M.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to question whether learning outcomes of the first course in accounting could predict the overall academic performance of accounting students as measured by their graduating grade point average (GPA). Design/methodology/approach The sample of the present study was drawn from accounting students who were graduated during…

  7. Early Prediction of Outcome of Activities of Daily Living After Stroke A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, Janne M.; Kwakkel, Gert; van Wegen, Erwin E. H.; Ket, Johannes C. F.; Heymans, Martijn W.

    2011-01-01

    Background and Purpose-Knowledge about robust and unbiased factors that predict outcome of activities of daily living (ADL) is paramount in stroke management. This review investigates the methodological quality of prognostic studies in the early poststroke phase for final ADL to identify variables t

  8. Prediction of outcome in mild to moderate head injury : A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Naalt, J

    2001-01-01

    This paper reviews the functional outcome of patients sustaining mild and moderate head injury (HI). Discrepancies across studies in the definition of minor, mild, and moderate HI are discussed in terms of hindering the interpretation of recovery. The predictive value of acute severity indices, neur

  9. Prediction of Motor and Functional Outcomes in Infants Born Preterm Assessed at Term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snider, Laurie; Majnemer, Annette; Mazer, Barbara; Campbell, Suzann; Bos, Arend F.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To compare 3 different assessment approaches at term to infants born preterm to predict motor and functional outcomes at 12 months adjusted age. Methods: Infants (n = 100) born at less than 32 weeks postconceptional age were assessed at term using the General Movements Assessment, Einstein

  10. Predicting mobility outcome one year after stroke: a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Port, I.G. van de; Kwakkel, G.; Schepers, V.P.; Lindeman, E.

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic model to predict mobility outcome one year post-stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in patients with a first-ever stroke admitted for inpatient rehabilitation. PATIENTS: A total of 217 patients with stroke (mean age 58 years) following inpatient rehabilitation

  11. Prediction of the outcome of orthodontic treatment of Class III malocclusions--a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fudalej, P.S.; Dragan, M.; Wedrychowska-Szulc, B.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to systematically review the orthodontic literature to assess the effectiveness of a prediction of outcome of orthodontic treatment in subjects with a Class III malocclusion. A structured search of electronic databases, as well as hand searching, retrieved 232 publicati

  12. And yet they correlate: psychophysiological activation predicts self-report outcomes of exposure therapy in claustrophobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpers, Georg W; Sell, Roxane

    2008-10-01

    The study examines whether self-reported fear and physiological activation are concordant when claustrophobic patients are exposed to small spaces, whether the measures change in synchrony for individual patients and whether initial activation of measures can predict the outcome of an exposure treatment. Ten patients with claustrophobia participated in six in-vivo exposure sessions with continuous monitoring of self-reported fear and their EKG. Partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)), a measure of hyperventilation, was available in a subsample of patients. While evidence for concordance of self-reported fear and heart rate was limited, the measures changed synchronously within subjects. Most importantly, higher heart rate at the beginning of the first exposure session predicted better treatment outcome. Because self-reported fear turned out not to be a reliable predictor of the outcome, this is interpreted as evidence for the incremental validity of physiological measures of fear.

  13. Predicting outcome of gastric bypass surgery utilizing personality scale elevations, psychosocial factors, and diagnostic group membership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belanger, Scott B; Wechsler, Frederick S; Nademin, Mahsaw Elicia; Virden, Thomas B

    2010-10-01

    Researchers have traditionally relied upon various presurgical biopsychosocial measures to predict weight loss success following bariatric surgery. The present study proposed a diagnostic grouping system to predict postsurgical outcome. It was hypothesized that psychosocial and Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI)/Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) psychometric variables could be used to identify gastric bypass surgery candidates requiring additional preoperative and postoperative services. Of 143 candidates for surgical treatment of morbid obesity, 120 women and 23 men underwent psychological evaluation prior to approval for gastric bypass. Each was placed into one of four diagnostic groups based upon results of personality measures and a preoperative semistructured interview. Results support the K scale of the MMPI-2 as a significant predictor of postsurgical outcome; MCMI scores on the schizoid, schizotypal, and compulsive scales appeared to be better overall predictors of outcome.

  14. Noncoding RNAs as potential biomarkers to predict the outcome in pancreatic cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin K

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Kaizhou Jin,1–3,* Guopei Luo,1–3,* Zhiwen Xiao,1–3 Zuqiang Liu,1–3 Chen Liu,1–3 Shunrong Ji,1–3 Jin Xu,1–3 Liang Liu,1–3 Jiang Long,1–3 Quanxing Ni,1–3 Xianjun Yu1–3 1Department of Pancreatic and Hepatobiliary Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, 2Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, 3Pancreatic Cancer Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Abstract: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, a common digestive system cancer, is highly malignant and has a poor disease outcome. Currently, all available examination and detection methods cannot accurately predict the clinical outcome. Therefore, it is extremely important to identify novel molecular biomarkers for personalized medication and to significantly improve the overall outcome. The “noncoding RNAs” (ncRNAs are a group of RNAs that do not code for proteins, and they are categorized as structural RNAs and regulatory RNAs. It has been shown that microRNAs and long ncRNAs function as regulatory RNAs to affect the progression of various diseases. Many studies have confirmed a role for ncRNAs in the progression of PDAC during the last few years. Because of the significant role of ncRNAs in PDAC, ncRNA profiling may be used to predict PDAC outcome with high accuracy. This review comprehensively analyzes the value of ncRNAs as potential biomarkers to predict the outcome in PDAC and the possible mechanisms thereof. Keywords: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, microRNA, long noncoding RNA, outcome prediction

  15. Machine Learning Approach for the Outcome Prediction of Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFelipe-Oroquieta, Jesús; Kastanauskaite, Asta; de Sola, Rafael G.; DeFelipe, Javier; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery. PMID:23646148

  16. Machine learning approach for the outcome prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubén Armañanzas

    Full Text Available Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery.

  17. The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flack, Mal; Morris, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z ) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling.

  18. Worthing Physiological Score vs Revised Trauma Score in Outcome Prediction of Trauma patients; a Comparative Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakhjavan-Shahraki, Babak; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Hajighanbari, Mohammad Javad; Karimi, Parviz; Baikpour, Masoud; Mirzay Razaz, Jalaledin; Yaseri, Mehdi; Shahsavari, Kavous; Mahdizadeh, Fatemeh; Hosseini, Mostafa

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Awareness about the outcome of trauma patients in the emergency department (ED) has become a topic of interest. Accordingly, the present study aimed to compare the rapid trauma score (RTS) and worthing physiological scoring system (WPSS) in predicting in-hospital mortality and poor outcome of trauma patients. Methods: In this comparative study trauma patients brought to five EDs in different cities of Iran during the year 2016 were included. After data collection, discriminatory power and calibration of the models were assessed and compared using STATA 11. Results: 2148 patients with the mean age of 39.50±17.27 years were included (75.56% males). The AUC of RTS and WPSS models for prediction of mortality were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82-0.90) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.94), respectively (p=0.006). RTS had a sensitivity of 71.54 (95% CI: 62.59-79.13) and a specificity of 97.38 (95% CI: 96.56-98.01) in prediction of mortality. These measures for the WPSS were 87.80 (95% CI: 80.38-92.78) and 83.45 (95% CI: 81.75-85.04), respectively. The AUC of RTS and WPSS in predicting poor outcome were 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85) and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.92), respectively (p<0.0001). Conclusion: The findings showed a higher prognostic value for the WPSS model in predicting mortality and severe disabilities in trauma patients compared to the RTS model. Both models had good overall performance in prediction of mortality and poor outcome. PMID:28286838

  19. Dynamic Profiling: Modeling the Dynamics of Inflammation and Predicting Outcomes in Traumatic Brain Injury Patients

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    Gregory Constantine

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Inflammation induced by traumatic brain injury (TBI is complex, individual-specific, and associated with morbidity and mortality. We sought to develop dynamic, data-driven, predictive computational models of TBI-induced inflammation based on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF biomarkers. Thirteen inflammatory mediators were determined in serial CSF samples from 27 severe TBI patients. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score quantifies the initial severity of the neurological status of the patient on a numerical scale from 3 to 15. The 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS score, the outcome variable, was taken as the variable to express and predict as a function of the other input variables. Data on each subject consisting of ten clinical (one-dimensional variables, such as age, gender, and presence of infection, along with inflammatory biomarker time series were used to generate both multinomial logistic as well as probit models that predict low (poor outcome or high (favorable outcome levels of the GOS score. To determine if CSF inflammation biomarkers could predict TBI outcome, a logistic model for low (≤3; poor neurological outcome or high levels (≥4; favorable neurological outcome of the GOS score involving a full effect of the pro-inflammatory cytokine tumor necrosis factor- and both linear and quadratic effects of the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 was obtained. To better stratify patients as their pathology progresses over time, a technique called Dynamic Profiling was developed in which patients were clustered, using the spectral Laplacian and Hartigan's k-means method, into disjoint groups at different stages. Initial clustering was based on GCS score; subsequent clustering was performed based on clinical and demographic information and then further, sequential clustering based on the levels of individual inflammatory mediators over time. These clusters assess the risk of mortality of a new patient after each inflammatory mediator

  20. Current measures of metabolic heterogeneity within cervical cancer do not predict disease outcome

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    Brooks Frank J

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A previous study evaluated the intra-tumoral heterogeneity observed in the uptake of F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG in pre-treatment positron emission tomography (PET scans of cancers of the uterine cervix as an indicator of disease outcome. This was done via a novel statistic which ostensibly measured the spatial variations in intra-tumoral metabolic activity. In this work, we argue that statistic is intrinsically non-spatial, and that the apparent delineation between unsuccessfully- and successfully-treated patient groups via that statistic is spurious. Methods We first offer a straightforward mathematical demonstration of our argument. Next, we recapitulate an assiduous re-analysis of the originally published data which was derived from FDG-PET imagery. Finally, we present the results of a principal component analysis of FDG-PET images similar to those previously analyzed. Results We find that the previously published measure of intra-tumoral heterogeneity is intrinsically non-spatial, and actually is only a surrogate for tumor volume. We also find that an optimized linear combination of more canonical heterogeneity quantifiers does not predict disease outcome. Conclusions Current measures of intra-tumoral metabolic activity are not predictive of disease outcome as has been claimed previously. The implications of this finding are: clinical categorization of patients based upon these statistics is invalid; more sophisticated, and perhaps innately-geometric, quantifications of metabolic activity are required for predicting disease outcome.

  1. Predicting neurodevelopmental outcomes at preschool age for children with very low birth weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Tsu-Hsin; Sheu, Ching-Fan; Hsu, Yung-Wen; Wang, Tien-Ni; Wang, Lan-Wan

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine predictors of neurodevelopmental outcome in very low birth weight children without major impairment at 5 years of age, as well as to identify the contribution of early neurodevelopmental assessment to preterm children's later developmental outcomes. The participants in this study included 126 children who were prematurely born with very low birth weight. Outcomes of the childrens' later development were measured in tests that factored cognitive function, motor performance, and adaptive behavior. The results indicated that more than 50% of full-scale intelligence and 30% of both motor performance and adaptive behavior at the age of 5 can be explained by four predictors. The four predictors include preterm children's medical complications at birth, maternal education, early motor assessments, and cognitive assessments. Adding each test score obtained in early ages provides additional information to predict children's cognitive, motor, and adaptive behavior at 5 years of age. Manifold assessments conducted in multiple time periods strengthen the predictive values of later developmental outcomes. In addition, the findings of this study indicate that very low birth weight children tend to have lower adaptive behavior at 5 years old. With regard to our findings, we believe that having adaptive function is a reflection of a child's overall integrated abilities. Further study is warranted to increase understanding of this topic, as well as to be able to predict adaptive strengths and weakness and pinpoint limiting factors that may be useful for targeting behaviors in intervention.

  2. Perfusion CT in acute stroke: prediction of vessel recanalization and clinical outcome in intravenous thrombolytic therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kloska, Stephan P.; Fischer, Tobias; Fischbach, Roman; Heindel, Walter [University of Muenster, Department of Clinical Radiology, Muenster (Germany); Dittrich, Ralf; Nabavi, Darius G.; Ringelstein, E.B. [University of Muenster, Department of Neurology, Muenster (Germany); Seidensticker, Peter [Bayer Schering Pharma AG, Global Medical Affairs, Berlin (Germany); Osada, Nani [University of Muenster, Department of Medical Informatics and Biomathematics, Muenster (Germany)

    2007-10-15

    This study evaluated perfusion computed tomography (PCT) for the prediction of vessel recanalization and clinical outcome in patients undergoing intravenous thrombolysis. Thirty-nine patients with acute ischemic stroke of the middle cerebral artery territory underwent intravenous thrombolysis within 3 h of symptom onset. They all had non-enhanced CT (NECT), PCT, and CT angiography (CTA) before treatment. The Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography (ASPECT) score was applied to NECT and PCT maps to assess the extent of ischemia. CTA was assessed for the site of vessel occlusion. The National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was used for initial clinical assessment. Three-month clinical outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin scale. Vessel recanalization was determined by follow-up ultrasound. Of the PCT maps, a cerebral blood volume (CBV) ASPECT score of >6 versus {<=}6 was the best predictor for clinical outcome (odds ratio, 31.43; 95% confidence interval, 3.41-289.58; P < 0.002), and was superior to NIHSS, NECT and CTA. No significant differences in ASPECT scores were found for the prediction of vessel recanalization. ASPECT score applied to PCT maps in acute stroke patients predicts the clinical outcome of intravenous thrombolysis and is superior to both early NECT and clinical parameters. (orig.)

  3. Affective forecasting in an orangutan: predicting the hedonic outcome of novel juice mixes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauciuc, Gabriela-Alina; Persson, Tomas; Bååth, Rasmus; Bobrowicz, Katarzyna; Osvath, Mathias

    2016-11-01

    Affective forecasting is an ability that allows the prediction of the hedonic outcome of never-before experienced situations, by mentally recombining elements of prior experiences into possible scenarios, and pre-experiencing what these might feel like. It has been hypothesised that this ability is uniquely human. For example, given prior experience with the ingredients, but in the absence of direct experience with the mixture, only humans are said to be able to predict that lemonade tastes better with sugar than without it. Non-human animals, on the other hand, are claimed to be confined to predicting-exclusively and inflexibly-the outcome of previously experienced situations. Relying on gustatory stimuli, we devised a non-verbal method for assessing affective forecasting and tested comparatively one Sumatran orangutan and ten human participants. Administered as binary choices, the test required the participants to mentally construct novel juice blends from familiar ingredients and to make hedonic predictions concerning the ensuing mixes. The orangutan's performance was within the range of that shown by the humans. Both species made consistent choices that reflected independently measured taste preferences for the stimuli. Statistical models fitted to the data confirmed the predictive accuracy of such a relationship. The orangutan, just like humans, thus seems to have been able to make hedonic predictions concerning never-before experienced events.

  4. Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. Results: A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30–70% range, with no significant difference among models (P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others (P > 0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others. PMID:27904602

  5. Communication abnormalities predict functional outcomes in chronic schizophrenia: differential associations with social and adaptive functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowie, Christopher R; Harvey, Philip D

    2008-08-01

    Communication abnormalities are hallmark features of schizophrenia. Despite the prevalence and persistence of these symptoms, little is known about their functional implications. In this study, we examined, in a sample of chronically institutionalized schizophrenia patients (N=317), whether two types of communication abnormalities (i.e., verbal underproductivity and disconnected speech) had differential relationships with social and adaptive outcomes. Baseline ratings of verbal underproductivity, disconnected speech, global cognitive performance, and clinical symptoms, were entered into stepwise regression analyses to examine their relationship with 2.5 year social and adaptive outcomes. At baseline, disconnected speech was significantly associated with socially impolite behavior, while verbal underproductivity was associated with social disengagement and impaired friendships. Both types of communication abnormalities were significantly associated with other types of social skills. Verbal underproductivity predicted follow-up social skills, social engagement, and friendships, accounting for more variance than. cognition or symptoms. In contrast to social outcomes, adaptive outcomes were predicted by baseline neurocognition and clinical symptoms, but not communication abnormalities. These findings provide evidence for specific relationships of communication disorder subtypes with diverse impairments in social functions. In this chronically institutionalized sample, communication disorder was a stronger predictor of social, but not adaptive, outcomes than neurocognition or clinical symptoms.

  6. Religiousness and perceived social support as predictive factors for mental health outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krok, Dariusz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study: The study is to investigate predictive values of the religious meaning system, the centrality of religiosity and social support for mental health outcomes. Although there is some evidence about associations of religiousness and social support with mental health, insufficient data exists to explain which dimensions of religiousness and social support are related to mental health outcomes. Material and methods: Participants were 206 people (108 women and 98 men randomly recruited in southern parts of Poland. Their ages ranged from 18 to 78 years, with a mean age of 38.6 years (SD =16.44. All participants filled in the four questionnaires: The Religious Meaning System Questionnaire, The Centrality of Religiosity Scale, The Berlin Social Support Scales, and The General Health Questionnaire-28. Results: Both religiousness and social support are associated with mental health outcomes, but the character of these associations depends on particular dimensions. The religious meaning system and the centrality of religiosity showed negative links with the dimension of mental health called somatic symptoms. Actually received support was associated with better mental health, whereas need for support and protective buffering support were predictors of negative mental health outcomes. Discussion and conclusions: The findings support the hypotheses that religiousness and social support are predictive factors for mental health outcomes, though their effects are rather moderate or weak. Both religion and social support can influence mental health by imbuing life with a sense of meaning and significance, and offering fellowship in times of stress and suffering.

  7. A predictive scoring instrument for tuberculosis lost to follow-up outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment is troublesome, due to long therapy duration, quick therapeutic response which allows the patient to disregard about the rest of their treatment and the lack of motivation on behalf of the patient for improved. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system to predict the probability of lost to follow-up outcome in TB patients as a way to identify patients suitable for directly observed treatments (DOT) and other interventions to improve adherence. Methods Two prospective cohorts, were used to develop and validate a logistic regression model. A scoring system was constructed, based on the coefficients of factors associated with a lost to follow-up outcome. The probability of lost to follow-up outcome associated with each score was calculated. Predictions in both cohorts were tested using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). Results The best model to predict lost to follow-up outcome included the following characteristics: immigration (1 point value), living alone (1 point) or in an institution (2 points), previous anti-TB treatment (2 points), poor patient understanding (2 points), intravenous drugs use (IDU) (4 points) or unknown IDU status (1 point). Scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points were associated with a lost to follow-up probability of 2,2% 5,4% 9,9%, 16,4%, 15%, and 28%, respectively. The ROC curve for the validation group demonstrated a good fit (AUC: 0,67 [95% CI; 0,65-0,70]). Conclusion This model has a good capacity to predict a lost to follow-up outcome. Its use could help TB Programs to determine which patients are good candidates for DOT and other strategies to improve TB treatment adherence. PMID:22938040

  8. Inflammation-driven malnutrition: a new screening tool predicts outcome in Crohn's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Irene; Prager, Matthias; Valentini, Luzia; Büning, Carsten

    2016-09-01

    Malnutrition is a frequent feature in Crohn's disease (CD), affects patient outcome and must be recognised. For chronic inflammatory diseases, recent guidelines recommend the development of combined malnutrition and inflammation risk scores. We aimed to design and evaluate a new screening tool that combines both malnutrition and inflammation parameters that might help predict clinical outcome. In a prospective cohort study, we examined fifty-five patients with CD in remission (Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) disease activity (CDAI, Harvey-Bradshaw index), inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), faecal calprotectin (FC)), malnutrition (BMI, subjective global assessment (SGA), serum albumin, handgrip strength), body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) and administered the newly developed 'Malnutrition Inflammation Risk Tool' (MIRT; containing BMI, unintentional weight loss over 3 months and CRP). All parameters were evaluated regarding their ability to predict disease outcome prospectively at 6 months. At baseline, more than one-third of patients showed elevated inflammatory markers despite clinical remission (36·4 % CRP ≥5 mg/l, 41·5 % FC ≥100 µg/g). Prevalence of malnutrition at baseline according to BMI, SGA and serum albumin was 2-16 %. At 6 months, MIRT significantly predicted outcome in numerous nutritional and clinical parameters (SGA, CD-related flares, hospitalisations and surgeries). In contrast, SGA, handgrip strength, BMI, albumin and body composition had no influence on the clinical course. The newly developed MIRT was found to reliably predict clinical outcome in CD patients. This screening tool might be used to facilitate clinical decision making, including treatment of both inflammation and malnutrition in order to prevent complications.

  9. Prediction of an outcome using trajectories estimated from a linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, Nami; Takahashi, Fumiaki; Takeuchi, Masahiro

    2009-09-01

    In longitudinal data, interest is usually focused on the repeatedly measured variable itself. In some situations, however, the pattern of variation of the variable over time may contain information about a separate outcome variable. In such situations, longitudinal data provide an opportunity to develop predictive models for future observations of the separate outcome variable given the current data for an individual. In particular, longitudinally changing patterns of repeated measurements of a variable measured up to time t, or trajectories, can be used to predict an outcome measure or event that occurs after time t. In this article, we propose a method for predicting an outcome variable based on a generalized linear model, specifically, a logistic regression model, the covariates of which are variables that characterize the trajectory of an individual. Since the trajectory of an individual contains estimation error, the proposed logistic regression model constitutes a measurement error model. The model is fitted in two steps. First, a linear mixed model is fitted to the longitudinal data to estimate the random effect that characterizes the trajectory for each individual while adjusting for other covariates. In the second step, a conditional likelihood approach is applied to account for the estimation error in the trajectory. Prediction of an outcome variable is based on the logistic regression model in the second step. The receiver operating characteristic curve is used to compare the discrimination ability of a model with trajectories to one without trajectories as covariates. A simulation study is used to assess the performance of the proposed method, and the method is applied to clinical trial data.

  10. Malnutrition risk predicts surgical outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations: Results of a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Judy W C; Wu, Arthur H W; Lee, Michelle W K; Lau, So-ying; Lam, Pui-shan; Lau, Wai-shan; Kwok, Sam S S; Kwan, Rosa Y H; Lam, Cheuk-fan; Tam, Chun-kit; Lee, Suk-on

    2015-08-01

    Patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations are at risk of malnutrition which may increase the chance of adverse surgical outcomes. This prospective study aimed at correlating nutritional status of patients having gastrointestinal operations with their short-term surgical outcomes captured by a territory-wide Surgical Outcomes Monitoring and Improvement Program. The preoperative malnutrition risk of Chinese adult patients undergoing elective/emergency ultra-major/major gastrointestinal operations in two surgical departments over a 12-month period were assessed by Chinese version of Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool. Their perioperative risk factors and clinical outcomes, including length of hospital stay, mortality and morbidity, were retrieved from the above mentioned program. Correlation of malnutrition risk with clinical outcomes was assessed by logistic regression analysis after controlling for known confounders. 943 patients (58% male; mean age 65.9 ± 14.8 years) underwent gastrointestinal operations (40.3% emergency operation; 52.7% ultra-major procedures; 66.9% bowel resections) had analyzable data. 15.8% and 17.1% of patients were at medium and high risk of malnutrition, respectively. Malnutrition risk score according to the screening tool was an independent predictor of length of hospital stay, 30-day mortality, 60-day mortality and minor medical complications. Similar correlations were found for various sub-scores of malnutrition risk. Weight loss sub-score was predictive of 30-day mortality, 60-day mortality and minor medical complications. Body mass index was predictive of mortality (30- and 60- day) whereas the acute disease sub-score was predictive of length of hospital stay. Preoperative malnutrition was an important predictor of poor clinical outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal operations in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  11. The iScore predicts poor functional outcomes early after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saposnik, Gustavo; Raptis, Stavroula; Kapral, Moira K; Liu, Ying; Tu, Jack V; Mamdani, Muhammad; Austin, Peter C

    2011-12-01

    The iScore is a prediction tool originally developed to estimate the risk of death after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke. Our objective was to determine whether the iScore could also predict poor functional outcomes. We applied the iScore to patients presenting with an acute ischemic stroke at multiple hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between 2003 and 2008, who had been identified from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network regional stroke center database (n=3818) and from an external data set, the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network Ontario Stroke Audit (n=4635). Patients were excluded if they were included in the sample used to develop and validate the initial iScore. Poor functional outcomes were defined as: (1) death at 30 days or disability at discharge, in which disability was defined as having a modified Rankin Scale 3 to 5; and (2) death at 30 days or institutionalization at discharge. The prevalence of poor functional outcomes in the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network and the Ontario Stroke Audit, respectively, were 55.7% and 44.1% for death at 30 days or disability at discharge and 16.9% and 16.2%, respectively, for death at 30 days or institutionalization at discharge. The iScore stratified the risk of poor outcomes in low- and high-risk individuals. Observed versus predicted outcomes showed high correlations: 0.988 and 0.940 for mortality or disability and 0.985 and 0.993 for mortality or institutionalization in the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network and Ontario Stroke Audit cohorts. The iScore can be used to estimate the risk of death or a poor functional outcome after an acute ischemic stroke.

  12. Early functional magnetic resonance imaging activations predict language outcome after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saur, Dorothee; Ronneberger, Olaf; Kümmerer, Dorothee; Mader, Irina; Weiller, Cornelius; Klöppel, Stefan

    2010-04-01

    An accurate prediction of system-specific recovery after stroke is essential to provide rehabilitation therapy based on the individual needs. We explored the usefulness of functional magnetic resonance imaging scans from an auditory language comprehension experiment to predict individual language recovery in 21 aphasic stroke patients. Subjects with an at least moderate language impairment received extensive language testing 2 weeks and 6 months after left-hemispheric stroke. A multivariate machine learning technique was used to predict language outcome 6 months after stroke. In addition, we aimed to predict the degree of language improvement over 6 months. 76% of patients were correctly separated into those with good and bad language performance 6 months after stroke when based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data from language relevant areas. Accuracy further improved (86% correct assignments) when age and language score were entered alongside functional magnetic resonance imaging data into the fully automatic classifier. A similar accuracy was reached when predicting the degree of language improvement based on imaging, age and language performance. No prediction better than chance level was achieved when exploring the usefulness of diffusion weighted imaging as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired two days after stroke. This study demonstrates the high potential of current machine learning techniques to predict system-specific clinical outcome even for a disease as heterogeneous as stroke. Best prediction of language recovery is achieved when the brain activation potential after system-specific stimulation is assessed in the second week post stroke. More intensive early rehabilitation could be provided for those with a predicted poor recovery and the extension to other systems, for example, motor and attention seems feasible.

  13. Prediction of treatment outcome in social phobia: a cross-validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholing, A; Emmelkamp, P M

    1999-07-01

    This study was a replication of a study on the prediction of treatment outcome in social phobic patients [Chambless, D. L., Tran, G. Q. Glass, C.R. (1997). Predictors of response to cognitive-behavioral group therapy for social phobia. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 11 221-240]. Results at the posttest and the 18-months follow-up were analyzed for DSM-III-R social phobic patients, with either a generalized social phobia (n = 50) or a nongeneralized fear, i.e. fear of blushing, trembling or sweating in social situations (n = 26). Predictors were pretreatment depression, personality disorder traits, clinician rated severity of impairment and frequency of negative self-statements during social interactions. The criterium variable was (the residual gain score of) self-reported avoidance of social situations. In line with Chambless et al., pretreatment depression showed some predictive value, but smaller and only at the posttest. Change in the frequency of negative self-statements paralleled, but did not predict, change in social phobia symptoms. In contrast with Chambless et al., clinician rated severity was (slightly) predictive for treatment outcome, whereas avoidant personality traits had reverse correlations with outcome in both subgroups. The results are discussed and directions for further research are given.

  14. Preoperative Patient-Recorded Outcome Measures Predict Patient Discharge Location Following Unicondylar Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayala, Alfonso E; Lawson, Kevin A; Gruessner, Angelika C; Dohm, Michael P

    2017-02-01

    Advantages of unicondylar knee arthroplasty (UKA) over total knee arthroplasty include rapid recovery and shorter lengths of stay following surgery. Patients requiring extended postoperative care fail to recognize these benefits. Patient-reported outcome measures have proved useful in predicting outcomes following joint arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to identify and report preoperative patient-reported outcome measures and clinical variables that predict discharge to skilled nursing facilities following UKA. A prospective cohort of 174 patients was used to collect 36-Item Short Form scores and objective clinical data. Univariate and multivariate analysis with backward elimination were conducted to find a predictive risk model. The predictive model reported (78.7% concordance, receiver operating characteristic curve c-statistic 0.719, P = .0016) demonstrates that risk factors for discharge to skilled nursing facilities are: older age (odds ratio 4.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.256-13.911, P = .019), bilateral UKA procedures (odds ratio 1.887; 95% CI 1.054-3.378, P = .0326) and lower patient-reported preoperative 36-Item Short Form physical function scores (odds ratio 0.968; CI 0.938-1, P = .0488). The information presented here regarding possible patient disposition following UKA could aid informed decision-making regarding patients' short-term needs following surgery and help streamline preoperative planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Patterns Predict Consciousness Level and Recovery Outcome in Acquired Brain Injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xuehai; Zou, Qihong; Hu, Jin; Tang, Weijun; Mao, Ying; Gao, Liang; Zhu, Jianhong; Jin, Yi; Wu, Xin; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Yaojun; Zhang, Yao; Dai, Zhengjia; Gao, Jia-Hong; Weng, Xuchu; Northoff, Georg; Giacino, Joseph T.; He, Yong

    2015-01-01

    For accurate diagnosis and prognostic prediction of acquired brain injury (ABI), it is crucial to understand the neurobiological mechanisms underlying loss of consciousness. However, there is no consensus on which regions and networks act as biomarkers for consciousness level and recovery outcome in ABI. Using resting-state fMRI, we assessed intrinsic functional connectivity strength (FCS) of whole-brain networks in a large sample of 99 ABI patients with varying degrees of consciousness loss (including fully preserved consciousness state, minimally conscious state, unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state, and coma) and 34 healthy control subjects. Consciousness level was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Scale and Coma Recovery Scale-Revised on the day of fMRI scanning; recovery outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale 3 months after the fMRI scanning. One-way ANOVA of FCS, Spearman correlation analyses between FCS and the consciousness level and recovery outcome, and FCS-based multivariate pattern analysis were performed. We found decreased FCS with loss of consciousness primarily distributed in the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PCU), medial prefrontal cortex, and lateral parietal cortex. The FCS values of these regions were significantly correlated with consciousness level and recovery outcome. Multivariate support vector machine discrimination analysis revealed that the FCS patterns predicted whether patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state and coma would regain consciousness with an accuracy of 81.25%, and the most discriminative region was the PCC/PCU. These findings suggest that intrinsic functional connectivity patterns of the human posteromedial cortex could serve as a potential indicator for consciousness level and recovery outcome in individuals with ABI. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Varying degrees of consciousness loss and recovery are commonly observed in acquired brain injury patients, yet the

  16. Outcome prediction in severe traumatic brain injury with transcranial Doppler ultrasonography

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the value of transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasonography in evaluating the outcome of severe traumatic brain injury and to correlate the TCD values with intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) monitoring.   Methods: A prospective study was conducted to evaluate the contribution of TCD ultrasonography to neurological outcome in a series of 96 severe traumatic brain injury patients. The quantitative variables of TCD ultrasonography included the mean blood flow velocity of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and pulsatility index within the first 24 hours of admission. The ICP and CPP values were also recorded. Outcome in 6 months postinjury was evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS 4-5 was considered as “good” and GOS 1-3 as “poor”).   Results: The mean blood flow velocity of the MCA was larger than 40 cm/s in 30 (51%) patients with good outcome whereas it was less than 40 cm/s in 27 (73%) patients with poor outcome (P<0.025). The mean PI in cases of good outcome (34 patients, 57%) was lower than 1.5 whereas in poor outcome (30 patients, 83%) was higher than 1.5 (P<0.001). The correlations of ICP and CPP to pulsatility index were statistically significant (P<0.01).   Conclusions: TCD ultrasonography is valid in predicting the patients outcome of 6 months and correlates significantly with ICP and CPP values when it is performed in the first 24 hours of severe traumatic brain injury.

  17. Frontal gray matter abnormalities predict seizure outcome in refractory temporal lobe epilepsy patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaelle E. Doucet

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing more reliable predictors of seizure outcome following temporal lobe surgery for intractable epilepsy is an important clinical goal. In this context, we investigated patients with refractory temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE before and after temporal resection. In detail, we explored gray matter (GM volume change in relation with seizure outcome, using a voxel-based morphometry (VBM approach. To do so, this study was divided into two parts. The first one involved group analysis of differences in regional GM volume between the groups (good outcome (GO, e.g., no seizures after surgery; poor outcome (PO, e.g., persistent postoperative seizures; and controls, N = 24 in each group, pre- and post-surgery. The second part of the study focused on pre-surgical data only (N = 61, determining whether the degree of GM abnormalities can predict surgical outcomes. For this second step, GM abnormalities were identified, within each lobe, in each patient when compared with an ad hoc sample of age-matched controls. For the first analysis, the results showed larger GM atrophy, mostly in the frontal lobe, in PO patients, relative to both GO patients and controls, pre-surgery. When comparing pre-to-post changes, we found relative GM gains in the GO but not in the PO patients, mostly in the non-resected hemisphere. For the second analysis, only the frontal lobe displayed reliable prediction of seizure outcome. 81% of the patients showing pre-surgical increased GM volume in the frontal lobe became seizure free, post-surgery; while 77% of the patients with pre-surgical reduced frontal GM volume had refractory seizures, post-surgery. A regression analysis revealed that the proportion of voxels with reduced frontal GM volume was a significant predictor of seizure outcome (p = 0.014. Importantly, having less than 1% of the frontal voxels with GM atrophy increased the likelihood of being seizure-free, post-surgery, by seven times. Overall, our results suggest

  18. Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalonde, Michel; Wells, R Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D; Wassenaar, Richard

    2014-07-01

    Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p Cluster analysis results were similar to SPECT RNA phase analysis (ROC AUC = 0.78, p = 0.73 vs cluster AUC; sensitivity/specificity = 59%/89%) and

  19. Artificial Neural Network System to Predict the Postoperative Outcome of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminsharifi, Alireza; Irani, Dariush; Pooyesh, Shima; Parvin, Hamid; Dehghani, Sakineh; Yousofi, Khalilolah; Fazel, Ebrahim; Zibaie, Fatemeh

    2017-05-01

    To construct, train, and apply an artificial neural network (ANN) system for prediction of different outcome variables of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). We calculated predictive accuracy, sensitivity, and precision for each outcome variable. During the study period, all adult patients who underwent PCNL at our institute were enrolled in the study. Preoperative and postoperative variables were recorded, and stone-free status was assessed perioperatively with computed tomography scans. MATLAB software was used to design and train the network in a feed forward back-propagation error adjustment scheme. Preoperative and postoperative data from 200 patients (training set) were used to analyze the effect and relative relevance of preoperative values on postoperative parameters. The validated adequately trained ANN was used to predict postoperative outcomes in the subsequent 254 adult patients (test set) whose preoperative values were serially fed into the system. To evaluate system accuracy in predicting each postoperative variable, predicted values were compared with actual outcomes. Two hundred fifty-four patients (155 [61%] males) were considered the test set. Mean stone burden was 6702.86 ± 381.6 mm(3). Overall stone-free rate was 76.4%. Fifty-four out of 254 patients (21.3%) required ancillary procedures (shockwave lithotripsy 5.9%, transureteral lithotripsy 10.6%, and repeat PCNL 4.7%). The accuracy and sensitivity of the system in predicting different postoperative variables ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%. As a complex nonlinear mathematical model, our ANN system is an interconnected data mining tool, which prospectively analyzes and "learns" the relationships between variables. The accuracy and sensitivity of the system for predicting the stone-free rate, the need for blood transfusion, and post-PCNL ancillary procedures ranged from 81.0% to 98.2%.The stone burden and the stone morphometry were among the most significant preoperative characteristics that

  20. Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lalonde, Michel, E-mail: mlalonde15@rogers.com; Wassenaar, Richard [Department of Physics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6 (Canada); Wells, R. Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D. [Division of Cardiology, University of Ottawa Heart Institute, Ottawa, Ontario K1Y 4W7 (Canada)

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. Methods: About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Results: Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Cluster

  1. Time-dependent Predictive Values of Prognostic Biomarkers with Failure Time Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yingye; Cai, Tianxi; Pepe, Margaret S; Levy, Wayne C

    2008-01-01

    In a prospective cohort study, information on clinical parameters, tests and molecular markers is often collected. Such information is useful to predict patient prognosis and to select patients for targeted therapy. We propose a new graphical approach, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve, to quantify the predictive accuracy of prognostic markers measured on a continuous scale with censored failure time outcome. The proposed method highlights the need to consider both predictive values and the marker distribution in the population when evaluating a marker, and it provides a common scale for comparing different markers. We consider both semiparametric and nonparametric based estimating procedures. In addition, we provide asymptotic distribution theory and resampling based procedures for making statistical inference. We illustrate our approach with numerical studies and datasets from the Seattle Heart Failure Study.

  2. Serum Beta-hCG of 11 Days after Embryo Transfer to Predict Pregnancy Outcome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Objective To assess the clinic value of a single maternal serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) assay 11 d after embryo transfer in ART pregnancies and to predict pregnancy outcome.Methods A total of 384 pregnancies after embryo transfer were included.Inviable pregnancies were defined as biochemical pregnancies,ectopic pregnancies and first trimester abortions.Ongoing pregnancies were defined as singleton pregnancies and multiple pregnancies whose gestation were achieved more than 12 weeks.Serum β-hCG concentrations were compared among different groups.Results On the post embryo transfer d 11,the mean β-hCG concentration of the ongoing pregnancy group (323.7±285.2 mIU/ml) was significantly higher than that of the inviable pregnancy group(81.4±68.1 mmIU/ml)(P<0.001).In multiple gestations,the levels of β-hCG were significantly higher compared with singleton pregnancies.If the β-hCG level was between 10 mIU/ml and 50 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of biochemical pregnancies and ectopic pregnancies was 81.8%,the negative predictive value was 94.4%.If the level was less than 100 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of first trimester abortions was 80.8% the negative predictive value was 77.8%.If the level was greater than 250 mIU/ml,the positive predictive value of multiple pregnancies was 83.3%.the negative predictive value was 74.4%.Conclusions A single serum β-hCG level on d 11 after embryo transfer has good predictive valuefor clinical pregnancy outcome in controlled ovarian stimulation cycles and helps to plan the subsequent follow-up.

  3. Gene based therapies for kidney regeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Manoe J; Arcolino, Fanny O; Schoor, Perry; Kok, Robbert Jan; Mastrobattista, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    In this review we provide an overview of the expanding molecular toolbox that is available for gene based therapies and how these therapies can be used for a large variety of kidney diseases. Gene based therapies range from restoring gene function in genetic kidney diseases to steering complex molec

  4. Feature selection for outcome prediction in oesophageal cancer using genetic algorithm and random forest classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Desbordes; Su, Ruan; Romain, Modzelewski; Sébastien, Vauclin; Pierre, Vera; Isabelle, Gardin

    2016-12-28

    The outcome prediction of patients can greatly help to personalize cancer treatment. A large amount of quantitative features (clinical exams, imaging, …) are potentially useful to assess the patient outcome. The challenge is to choose the most predictive subset of features. In this paper, we propose a new feature selection strategy called GARF (genetic algorithm based on random forest) extracted from positron emission tomography (PET) images and clinical data. The most relevant features, predictive of the therapeutic response or which are prognoses of the patient survival 3 years after the end of treatment, were selected using GARF on a cohort of 65 patients with a local advanced oesophageal cancer eligible for chemo-radiation therapy. The most relevant predictive results were obtained with a subset of 9 features leading to a random forest misclassification rate of 18±4% and an areas under the of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) of 0.823±0.032. The most relevant prognostic results were obtained with 8 features leading to an error rate of 20±7% and an AUC of 0.750±0.108. Both predictive and prognostic results show better performances using GARF than using 4 other studied methods.

  5. Development and validation of a dynamic outcome prediction model for paracetamol-induced acute liver failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernal, William; Wang, Yanzhong; Maggs, James

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Early, accurate prediction of survival is central to management of patients with paracetamol-induced acute liver failure to identify those needing emergency liver transplantation. Current prognostic tools are confounded by recent improvements in outcome independent of emergency liver ...... in paracetamol-induced acute liver failure require re-evaluation. FUNDING: Foundation for Liver Research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....... normalised ratio (INR), and cardiovascular failure were used to derive an initial predictive model, with a second (day 2) model including additional changes in INR and lactate. FINDINGS: We developed and validated new high-performance statistical models to support decision making in patients with paracetamol...

  6. The role of attachment in predicting CBT treatment outcome in children with anxiety disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walczak, Monika Anna; Normann, Nicoline; Tolstrup, Marie

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Child’s insecure attachment to parents and insecure parental attachment has been linked to childhood anxiety (Brumariu & Kerns, 2010; Manassis et al.,1994).Whether attachment patterns can predict treatment outcome, is yet to be investigated. We examined the role of children......’s attachment to parents, and parental attachment in predicting treatment outcome in anxious children receiving cognitive-behavioral treatment. Method: A total of 69 children aged 7-13 years were diagnosed at intake and post-treatment, using Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV (Silverman and Albano......, 1996). In addition, children’s attachment to both parents was assessed using the Friends and Family Interview (Steele, Steele & Kriss, 2009) and Security Scale Revised (Kerns, Aspelmeier, Gentzler, & Grabill, 2001). Parents filled in the Experiences in Close Relationships-Revised (Fraley, Waller...

  7. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: A longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J. Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia; Dunn, Erin C.; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W.; Jellinek, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The world’s largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life, SFL], has been operating at a national scale in Chile for fifteen years. SFL’s activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL’s data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students’ academic outcomes. PMID:24771270

  8. What predicts outcome, response, and drop-out in CBT of depressive adults? a naturalistic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Amrei; Hiller, Wolfgang; Witthöft, Michael

    2013-05-01

    The efficacy of CBT for unipolar depressive disorders is well established, yet not all patients improve or tolerate treatment. To identify factors associated with symptomatic outcome, response, and drop-out in depressive patients under naturalistic CBT. 193 patients with major depression or dysthymia were tested. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were entered as predictors in hierarchical regression analyses. A higher degree of pretreatment depression, early improvement, and completion of therapy were identified as predictors for symptomatic change and response. Drop-out was predicted by concurrent personality disorder, less positive outcome expectancies, and by failure to improve early in treatment. Our results highlight the importance of early response to predict improvement in routine CBT. Attempts to refine the quality of treatment programs should focus on avoiding premature termination (drop-out) and consider motivational factors in more depth. Routinely administered standardized assessments would enhance symptom monitoring and help to identify persons at risk of not improving under therapy.

  9. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: a longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, J Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa E; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia M; Dunn, Erin C; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W; Jellinek, Michael S

    2015-04-01

    The world's largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life (SFL)], has been operating on a national scale in Chile for 15 years. SFL's activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL's data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students' academic outcomes.

  10. Preoperative factors predicting poor outcomes following laparoscopic choledochotomy: a multivariate analysis study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Xiaoming; Hong, Xiaoming; Ni, Kaiyuan; Teng, Xiaoping; Xie, Kaigang

    2013-01-01

    Background Laparoscopic surgery for common bile duct stones varies procedurally from a transcystic approach to laparoscopic choledochotomy (LC) with or without biliary drainage. However, LC is a difficult procedure with higher documented morbidity than the transcystic approach. We retrospectively investigated risk factors for adverse outcomes of LC. Methods We used logistic regression models to assess 4 categories of adverse outcomes: overall, complications, conversion to open operation and failed surgical clearance. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate diagnostic accuracy. Results We included 201 patients who underwent LC in our analysis. Adverse outcomes occurred in 48 (23.9%) patients, complications occurred in 43 (21.4%), retained stones were observed in 8 (4%), and conversion to laparotomy occurred in 7 (3.5%). Multivariate analysis showed that total bilirubin (BIL) and the presence of medical risk factors (MRFs) were significant predictors of adverse outcomes and complications. We calculated the probability of adverse outcomes (p) using the following formula: logit(p) = 0.977 (MRFs) + 0.014 (BIL) − 2.919. p = EXP (logit(p)) ÷ [1+EXP (logit(p))]. According to their logit(p), all patients were divided into a low-risk group (logit(p) ≤ −1.32, n = 130) and a high-risk group (logit(p) > −1.32, n = 71). Patients in the low-risk group had about a 1 in 10 chance (12 of 130) of adverse outcomes developing. Of the 71 patients in the high-risk group, 36 (50.7%) experienced adverse outcomes. Conclusion High BIL and the presence of MRFs could predict adverse outcomes in patients undergoing LC. PMID:23883491

  11. Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

  12. Comparison of models for predicting outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease focusing on microsimulation

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    Masoud Amiri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Physicians have difficulty to subjectively estimate the cardiovascular risk of their patients. Using an estimate of global cardiovascular risk could be more relevant to guide decisions than using binary representation (presence or absence of risk factors data. The main aim of the paper is to compare different models of predicting the progress of a coronary artery diseases (CAD to help the decision making of physician. Methods: There are different standard models for predicting risk factors such as models based on logistic regression model, Cox regression model, dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov model and microsimulation model. Each model has its own application which can or cannot use by physicians to make a decision on treatment of each patient. Results: There are five main common models for predicting of outcomes, including models based on logistic regression model (for short-term outcomes, Cox regression model (for intermediate-term outcomes, dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov and microsimulation models (for long-term outcomes. The advantages and disadvantages of these models have been discussed and summarized. Conclusion: Given the complex medical decisions that physicians face in everyday practice, the multiple interrelated factors that play a role in choosing the optimal treatment, and the continuously accumulating new evidence on determinants of outcome and treatment options for CAD, physicians may potentially benefit from a clinical decision support system that accounts for all these considerations. The microsimulation model could provide cardiologists, researchers, and medical students a user-friendly software, which can be used as an intelligent interventional simulator.

  13. DTI measures track and predict motor function outcomes in stroke rehabilitation utilizing BCI technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jie; Nair, Veena A; Young, Brittany M; Walton, Leo M; Nigogosyan, Zack; Remsik, Alexander; Tyler, Mitchell E; Farrar-Edwards, Dorothy; Caldera, Kristin E; Sattin, Justin A; Williams, Justin C; Prabhakaran, Vivek

    2015-01-01

    Tracking and predicting motor outcomes is important in determining effective stroke rehabilitation strategies. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) allows for evaluation of the underlying structural integrity of brain white matter tracts and may serve as a potential biomarker for tracking and predicting motor recovery. In this study, we examined the longitudinal relationship between DTI measures of the posterior limb of the internal capsule (PLIC) and upper-limb motor outcomes in 13 stroke patients (median 20-month post-stroke) who completed up to 15 sessions of intervention using brain-computer interface (BCI) technology. Patients' upper-limb motor outcomes and PLIC DTI measures including fractional anisotropy (FA), axial diffusivity (AD), radial diffusivity (RD), and mean diffusivity (MD) were assessed longitudinally at four time points: pre-, mid-, immediately post- and 1-month-post intervention. DTI measures and ratios of each DTI measure comparing the ipsilesional and contralesional PLIC were correlated with patients' motor outcomes to examine the relationship between structural integrity of the PLIC and patients' motor recovery. We found that lower diffusivity and higher FA values of the ipsilesional PLIC were significantly correlated with better upper-limb motor function. Baseline DTI ratios were significantly correlated with motor outcomes measured immediately post and 1-month-post BCI interventions. A few patients achieved improvements in motor recovery meeting the minimum clinically important difference (MCID). These findings suggest that upper-limb motor recovery in stroke patients receiving BCI interventions relates to the microstructural status of the PLIC. Lower diffusivity and higher FA measures of the ipsilesional PLIC contribute toward better motor recovery in the stroke-affected upper-limb. DTI-derived measures may be a clinically useful biomarker in tracking and predicting motor recovery in stroke patients receiving BCI interventions.

  14. Plastic Surgeon Expertise in Predicting Breast Reconstruction Outcomes for Patient Decision Analysis

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    Clement S. Sun, MS

    2013-11-01

    Conclusions: The use of individual plastic surgeon–elicited probability information is not encouraged unless the individual’s prediction skill has been evaluated. In the absence of this information, a group consensus on the probability of outcomes is preferred. Without a large evidence base for calculating probabilities, estimates assessed from a group of plastic surgeons may be acceptable for purposes of breast reconstruction decision analysis.

  15. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, U; Grothe., M; Lotze, M.

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated...

  16. Factors predicting work outcome in Japanese patients with schizophrenia: role of multiple functioning levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chika Sumiyoshi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Functional outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia suggest recovery of cognitive, everyday, and social functioning. Specifically improvement of work status is considered to be most important for their independent living and self-efficacy. The main purposes of the present study were 1 to identify which outcome factors predict occupational functioning, quantified as work hours, and 2 to provide cut-offs on the scales for those factors to attain better work status. Forty-five Japanese patients with schizophrenia and 111 healthy controls entered the study. Cognition, capacity for everyday activities, and social functioning were assessed by the Japanese versions of the MATRICS Cognitive Consensus Battery (MCCB, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief (UPSA-B, and the Social Functioning Scale Individuals’ version modified for the MATRICS-PASS (Modified SFS for PASS, respectively. Potential factors for work outcome were estimated by multiple linear regression analyses (predicting work hours directly and a multiple logistic regression analyses (predicting dichotomized work status based on work hours. ROC curve analyses were performed to determine cut-off points for differentiating between the better- and poor work status. The results showed that a cognitive component, comprising visual/verbal learning and emotional management, and a social functioning component, comprising independent living and vocational functioning, were potential factors for predicting work hours/status. Cut-off points obtained in ROC analyses indicated that 60–70% achievements on the measures of those factors were expected to maintain the better work status. Our findings suggest that improvement on specific aspects of cognitive and social functioning are important for work outcome in patients with schizophrenia.

  17. Cross-trial prediction of treatment outcome in depression: a machine learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chekroud, Adam Mourad; Zotti, Ryan Joseph; Shehzad, Zarrar; Gueorguieva, Ralitza; Johnson, Marcia K; Trivedi, Madhukar H; Cannon, Tyrone D; Krystal, John Harrison; Corlett, Philip Robert

    2016-03-01

    Antidepressant treatment efficacy is low, but might be improved by matching patients to interventions. At present, clinicians have no empirically validated mechanisms to assess whether a patient with depression will respond to a specific antidepressant. We aimed to develop an algorithm to assess whether patients will achieve symptomatic remission from a 12-week course of citalopram. We used patient-reported data from patients with depression (n=4041, with 1949 completers) from level 1 of the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D; ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00021528) to identify variables that were most predictive of treatment outcome, and used these variables to train a machine-learning model to predict clinical remission. We externally validated the model in the escitalopram treatment group (n=151) of an independent clinical trial (Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes [COMED]; ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00590863). We identified 25 variables that were most predictive of treatment outcome from 164 patient-reportable variables, and used these to train the model. The model was internally cross-validated, and predicted outcomes in the STAR*D cohort with accuracy significantly above chance (64·6% [SD 3·2]; p<0·0001). The model was externally validated in the escitalopram treatment group (N=151) of COMED (accuracy 59·6%, p=0.043). The model also performed significantly above chance in a combined escitalopram-buproprion treatment group in COMED (n=134; accuracy 59·7%, p=0·023), but not in a combined venlafaxine-mirtazapine group (n=140; accuracy 51·4%, p=0·53), suggesting specificity of the model to underlying mechanisms. Building statistical models by mining existing clinical trial data can enable prospective identification of patients who are likely to respond to a specific antidepressant. Yale University. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Predictive Factors in OCT Analysis for Visual Outcome in Exudative AMD

    OpenAIRE

    Maria-Andreea Gamulescu; Georgios Panagakis; Carmen Theek; Horst Helbig

    2012-01-01

    Background. Reliable predictive factors for therapy outcome may enable treating physicians to counsel their patients more efficiently concerning probability of improvement or time point of discontinuation of a certain therapy. Methods. This is a retrospective analysis of 87 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration who received three monthly intravitreal ranibizumab injections. Visual acuity before initiation of intravitreal therapy and 4–6 weeks after last intravitreal injecti...

  19. Measure of functional independence dominates discharge outcome prediction after inpatient rehabilitation for stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Allen W; Therneau, Terry M; Schultz, Billie A; Niewczyk, Paulette M; Granger, Carl V

    2015-04-01

    Identifying clinical data acquired at inpatient rehabilitation admission for stroke that accurately predict key outcomes at discharge could inform the development of customized plans of care to achieve favorable outcomes. The purpose of this analysis was to use a large comprehensive national data set to consider a wide range of clinical elements known at admission to identify those that predict key outcomes at rehabilitation discharge. Sample data were obtained from the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation data set with the diagnosis of stroke for the years 2005 through 2007. This data set includes demographic, administrative, and medical variables collected at admission and discharge and uses the FIM (functional independence measure) instrument to assess functional independence. Primary outcomes of interest were functional independence measure gain, length of stay, and discharge to home. The sample included 148,367 people (75% white; mean age, 70.6±13.1 years; 97% with ischemic stroke) admitted to inpatient rehabilitation a mean of 8.2±12 days after symptom onset. The total functional independence measure score, the functional independence measure motor subscore, and the case-mix group were equally the strongest predictors for any of the primary outcomes. The most clinically relevant 3-variable model used the functional independence measure motor subscore, age, and walking distance at admission (r(2)=0.107). No important additional effect for any other variable was detected when added to this model. This analysis shows that a measure of functional independence in motor performance and age at rehabilitation hospital admission for stroke are predominant predictors of outcome at discharge in a uniquely large US national data set. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Otoacoustic emissions in the prediction of sudden sensorineural hearing loss outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shupak, Avi; Zeidan, Reem; Shemesh, Rafael

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate the role of otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) in the prediction of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL) outcome. Open-label prospective study. Tertiary referral medical center. Fifteen ISSNHL patients (age: 57.6 ± 16.2 years) were prospectively followed 7 days, 14 days, and 3 months post-presentation and the commencement of treatment. Pure-tone audiometry, TEOAEs (Transient Evoked OAEs), and DPOAEs (Distortion Product OAEs) testing. The pure-tone threshold averages of the three most affected frequencies, detectability, and the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) values of the TEOAEs and DPOAEs were calculated. The main outcome measures were pure-tone hearing improvement, sensitivity, and specificity of the OAEs measures towards ISSNHL outcome. Patients having detectable TEOAEs on the first follow-up evaluation had average hearing improvement of 62 ± 41% whereas those with no response improved only by 11 ± 15% (P hearing improvement, results were 71 ± 37% and 10 ± 14%, respectively (P hearing improvement reached 71% and the specificity 100%. For the DPOAEs, the corresponding values were 83% and 100%. Univariate analysis showed significant contribution for the variance in hearing improvement by both TEOAEs and DPOAEs and their interaction (P values of 0.043, 0.005, and 0.009, respectively). The results suggest potential role of TEOAEs and DPOAEs evaluation in the early stage of treatment in the prediction of ISSNHL outcome.

  1. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

  2. Prognostic Factors Predicting Poor Outcome in Living-Donor Liver Transplantation for Fulminant Hepatic Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T-S; Kim, J M; Kwon, C H D; Kim, S J; Joh, J-W; Lee, S-K

    2017-06-01

    Living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) has been accepted as feasible treatment for fulminant hepatic failure (FHF), although it has generated several debatable issues. In this study, we investigated the prognostic factors predicting fatal outcome after LDLT for FHF. From April 1999 to April 2011, 60 patients underwent LT for acute liver failure, including 42 patients for FHF at Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. Among 42 patients, 30 patients underwent LDLT for FHF, and the database of these patients was analyzed retrospectively to investigate the prognostic factors after LDLT for FHF. Among 30 patients, 7 patients (23%) died during the in-hospital period within 6 months, and 23 patients (77%) survived until recently. In univariate analyses, donor age (>35 years), graft volume (GV)/standard liver volume (SLV) (120 minutes), hepatic encephalopathy (grade IV), hepato-renal syndrome (HRS), and history of ventilator care were associated with fatal outcome after LDLT for FHF. In multivariate analyses, HRS, GV/SLV (35 years) were significantly associated with fatal outcome. Although the statistical significance was not shown in this analysis (P = .059), hepatic encephalopathy grade IV also appears to be a risk factor predicting fatal outcome. The survival of patients with FHF undergoing LDLT was comparable to that in published data. In this study, HRS, GV/SLV 35 years are the independent poor prognostic factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Extracorporeal shock-wave therapy for chronic lateral tennis elbow--prediction of outcome by imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, M; Steinborn, M; Schmitz, C; Stäbler, A; Köhler, S; Veihelmann, A; Pfahler, M; Refior, H J

    2001-07-01

    Today the clinical use of extracorporeal shockwave application (ESWA) for the treatment of lateral tennis elbow is hampered by the lack of results from randomized controlled trials and of predictive parameters of clinical outcome. The present prospective study aimed to provide the latter by means of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Twenty-three female and 19 male patients with unilateral chronic tennis elbow of the dominant site were clinically examined before and after repetitive low-energy ESWA. MRI was performed before ESWA to evaluate signal intensity changes or contrast enhancement of the common extensor tendon and the lateral epicondyle. After ESWA (mean follow-up period 18.6 months for all patients), clinical evaluation showed a significantly better mean clinical performance after ESWA than before treatment. Interestingly, male patients showed a significantly better mean clinical performance after ESWA than female patients, and male and female patients differed significantly in the signal intensity of the common extension tendon cross-section and tendon thickening on MRI. For female patients, MRI scans could be applied for predicting a positive clinical outcome of ESWA. This study reports the first indication of predictability of positive clinical outcome of the treatment of chronic lateral tennis elbow by ESWA using imaging prior to treatment. This may serve as an important step towards overcoming the therapeutic nihilism with respect to the non-operative management of this condition recently in the literature.

  4. Cross-sectional imaging for diagnosis and clinical outcome prediction of acute basilar artery thrombosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mortimer, A.M., E-mail: alex_mortimer@hotmail.co [Severn School of Radiology, Bristol (United Kingdom); Department of Radiology, Great Western Hospital, Swindon (United Kingdom); Saunders, T.; Cook, J.-L. [Department of Radiology, Great Western Hospital, Swindon (United Kingdom)

    2011-06-15

    Basilar artery occlusion is a potentially fatal condition and imaging findings can be subtle. Prompt diagnosis is vital, as recognition may lead to therapeutic recanalization that may improve functional outcome and survival. Furthermore, cross-sectional imaging signs may help predict eventual outcome and, therefore, guide which patients should be subjected to aggressive treatment. Computed tomography (CT) signs include a hyperdense basilar artery that has a high specificity, accuracy, positive and negative predictive value. Evidence regarding the prognostic significance of the hyperdense basilar artery sign is conflicting. Early magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features include loss of flow void, seen as increased signal intensity within the basilar artery on T2-weigted images and identification of acute thrombus, seen as intermediate signal on T1-weighted images. MRI sequences are more sensitive for early detection of acute ischaemia or infarction, ideally with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). Both CT and MR angiography are sensitive for detection of acute thrombus, seen as a filling defect or occlusion. These are the non-invasive imaging techniques of choice to confirm diagnosis, with perhaps the speed and accessibility of CT angiography resulting in this technique being valuable in the acute setting. Several new scoring systems based on arterial segmentation rather than global volume assessment using CT angiography source images and DWI have shown early promise in the prediction of eventual clinical outcome in order to isolate those patients who may benefit from therapeutic recanalization.

  5. Prediction of motor and functional outcomes in infants born preterm assessed at term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snider, Laurie; Majnemer, Annette; Mazer, Barbara; Campbell, Suzann; Bos, Arend F

    2009-01-01

    To compare 3 different assessment approaches at term to infants born preterm to predict motor and functional outcomes at 12 months adjusted age. Infants (n = 100) born at less than 32 weeks postconceptional age were assessed at term using the General Movements Assessment, Einstein Neonatal Neurobehavioral Assessment Scales, Test of Infant Motor Performance, and at 12 months adjusted age using the Alberta Infant Motor Scales, Peabody Developmental Motor Scales-2, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-Daily Living Skills, and Battelle Developmental Inventory. The General Movements Assessment (r2 = 0.04; p = 0.05) and the Test of Infant Motor Performance (r2 = 0.05; p = 0.04) predicted outcomes on the Peabody Developmental Motor Scales-2. The Test of Infant Motor Performance predicted outcomes on the Alberta Infant Motor Scales (r2 = 0.05; p = 0.04) and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales-Daily Living Skills (odds ratio: 0.93). Delays in functional performance were found. Neonatal tests at term explained a small but significant proportion of the variance in gross motor and daily living skills at 12 months adjusted age.

  6. Using acute kidney injury severity and scoring systems to predict outcome in patients with burn injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, George; Yang, Shih-Yi; Chuang, Shiow-Shuh; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Hsiao, Yen-Chang; Chen, Yung-Chang

    2016-12-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication of severe burn injury and is associated with mortality. The definition of AKI was modified by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes Group in 2012. So far, no study has compared the outcome accuracy of the new AKI staging guidelines with that of the complex score system. Hence, we compared the accuracy of these approaches in predicting mortality. This was a post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data from an intensive care burn unit in a tertiary care university hospital. Patients admitted to this unit from July 2004 to December 2006 were enrolled. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and prognostic risk scores were used as predictors of mortality. A total of 145 adult patients with a mean age of 41.9 years were studied. Thirty-five patients (24.1%) died during the hospital course. Among the prognostic risk models, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III system exhibited the strongest discriminative power and the AKI staging system also predicted mortality well (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.889 vs. 0.835). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified total burn surface area, ventilator use, AKI, and toxic epidermal necrolysis as independent risk factors for mortality. Our results revealed that AKI stage has considerable discriminative power for predicting mortality. Compared with other prognostic models, AKI stage is easier to use to assess outcome in patients with severe burn injury. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Prediction of rat behavior outcomes in memory tasks using functional connections among neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hu; Yang, Shengtao; Lin, Longnian; Li, Baoming; Wei, Hui

    2013-01-01

    Analyzing the neuronal organizational structures and studying the changes in the behavior of the organism is key to understanding cognitive functions of the brain. Although some studies have indicated that spatiotemporal firing patterns of neuronal populations have a certain relationship with the behavioral responses, the issues of whether there are any relationships between the functional networks comprised of these cortical neurons and behavioral tasks and whether it is possible to take advantage of these networks to predict correct and incorrect outcomes of single trials of animals are still unresolved. This paper presents a new method of analyzing the structures of whole-recorded neuronal functional networks (WNFNs) and local neuronal circuit groups (LNCGs). The activity of these neurons was recorded in several rats. The rats performed two different behavioral tasks, the Y-maze task and the U-maze task. Using the results of the assessment of the WNFNs and LNCGs, this paper describes a realization procedure for predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The methodology consists of four main parts: construction of WNFNs from recorded neuronal spike trains, partitioning the WNFNs into the optimal LNCGs using social community analysis, unsupervised clustering of all trials from each dataset into two different clusters, and predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The results show that WNFNs and LNCGs correlate with the behavior of the animal. The U-maze datasets show higher accuracy for unsupervised clustering results than those from the Y-maze task, and these datasets can be used to predict behavioral responses effectively. The results of the present study suggest that a methodology proposed in this paper is suitable for analysis of the characteristics of neuronal functional networks and the prediction of rat behavior. These types of structures in cortical ensemble activity may be critical to information representation during the execution of

  8. Prediction of rat behavior outcomes in memory tasks using functional connections among neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Lu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analyzing the neuronal organizational structures and studying the changes in the behavior of the organism is key to understanding cognitive functions of the brain. Although some studies have indicated that spatiotemporal firing patterns of neuronal populations have a certain relationship with the behavioral responses, the issues of whether there are any relationships between the functional networks comprised of these cortical neurons and behavioral tasks and whether it is possible to take advantage of these networks to predict correct and incorrect outcomes of single trials of animals are still unresolved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This paper presents a new method of analyzing the structures of whole-recorded neuronal functional networks (WNFNs and local neuronal circuit groups (LNCGs. The activity of these neurons was recorded in several rats. The rats performed two different behavioral tasks, the Y-maze task and the U-maze task. Using the results of the assessment of the WNFNs and LNCGs, this paper describes a realization procedure for predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The methodology consists of four main parts: construction of WNFNs from recorded neuronal spike trains, partitioning the WNFNs into the optimal LNCGs using social community analysis, unsupervised clustering of all trials from each dataset into two different clusters, and predicting the behavioral outcomes of single trials. The results show that WNFNs and LNCGs correlate with the behavior of the animal. The U-maze datasets show higher accuracy for unsupervised clustering results than those from the Y-maze task, and these datasets can be used to predict behavioral responses effectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of the present study suggest that a methodology proposed in this paper is suitable for analysis of the characteristics of neuronal functional networks and the prediction of rat behavior. These types of structures in cortical

  9. Validation that Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head and Neck Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Chad; Murphy, James D.; Khong, Brian; La, Trang H.; Kong, Christina; Fischbein, Nancy J.; Colevas, A. Dimitrios; Iagaru, Andrei H.; Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose We have previously reported that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) obtained from pre-treatment FDG PET/CT predicted outcome in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). The purpose of this study is to validate these results on an independent dataset, determine if the primary tumor or nodal MTV drives this correlation, and explore the interaction with p16INK4a status as a surrogate marker for HPV. Methods and Materials The validation dataset in this study included 83 patients with squamous cell HNC who had a FDG PET/CT scan prior to definitive radiotherapy. MTV and SUVmax were calculated for the primary tumor, involved nodes, and the combination of both. The primary endpoint was to validate that MTV predicted progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary analyses included determining the prognostic utility of primary tumor versus nodal MTV. Results Similar to our prior findings, an increase in total MTV of 17 cm3 (difference between 75th and 25th percentile) was associated with a 2.1 fold increase in the risk of disease progression (p=0.0002), and a 2.0 fold increase in the risk of death (p=0.0048). SUVmax was not associated with either outcome. Primary tumor MTV predicted progression-free (HR=1.94; p<0.0001) and overall (HR=1.57; p<0.0001) survival, whereas nodal MTV did not. In addition, MTV predicted progression-free (HR=4.23; p<0.0001) and overall (HR=3.21; p=0.0029) survival in patients with p16INK4a positive oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions This study validates our previous findings that MTV independently predicts outcomes in HNC. MTV should be considered as a potential risk stratifying biomarker in future studies of HNC. PMID:22270174

  10. Altruistic traits are predicted by neural responses to monetary outcomes for self vs charity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Martín, René; Kwak, Youngbin; Pearson, John M; Woldorff, Marty G; Huettel, Scott A

    2016-06-01

    Human altruism is often expressed through charitable donation-supporting a cause that benefits others in society, at cost to oneself. The underlying mechanisms of this other-regarding behavior remain imperfectly understood. By recording event-related-potential (ERP) measures of brain activity from human participants during a social gambling task, we identified markers of differential responses to receipt of monetary outcomes for oneself vs for a charitable cause. We focused our ERP analyses on the frontocentral feedback-related negativity (FRN) and three subcomponents of the attention-related P300 (P3) brain wave: the frontocentral P2 and P3a and the parietal P3b. The FRN distinguished between gains and losses for both self and charity outcomes. Importantly, this effect of outcome valence was greater for self than charity for both groups and was independent of two altruism-related measures: participants' pre-declared intended donations and the actual donations resulting from their choices. In contrast, differences in P3 subcomponents for outcomes for self vs charity strongly predicted both of our laboratory measures of altruism-as well as self-reported engagement in real-life altruistic behaviors. These results indicate that individual differences in altruism are linked to individual differences in the relative deployment of attention (as indexed by the P3) toward outcomes affecting other people. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. ROLE OF GLYCOSYLATED HAEMOGLOBIN IN PREDICTION OF FOETOMATERNAL OUTCOME IN GESTATIONAL DIABETES MELLITUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinita Sarbhai

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE To explore the role of Glycosylated Haemoglobin (HbA1c in predicting foetomaternal outcome in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM. METHOD This was a prospective study of 100 women with singleton pregnancy with 140 mg/dL on glucose challenge test enrolled in Kasturba Hospital, Delhi, from 2012 to 2013. A detailed history, examination, routine obstetrical investigations including 75 g Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT and HbA1c level were done. Patients were managed accordingly and followed till delivery. Their obstetrical and perinatal outcomes were noted and the data was compared using chi-squared test and Fischer’s exact test with a two-tailed p-value 6% HbA1c level and those with abnormal OGTT. Adverse maternal outcomes in patients with >6% HbA1c included excessive weight gain (68% vs. 58.2%, preeclampsia (44% vs. 38.2%, polyhydramnios (44% vs. 35.2%, caesarean section (68% vs. 52.9%, wound sepsis (24% vs. 17.6% as compared to patients with abnormal GTT. Adverse foetal outcomes and neonatal complications in patients with >6% HbA1c included preterm delivery (36% vs. 32.3%, intrauterine death (12% vs. 8.8%, LGA babies (52% vs. 29.4%, congenital anomalies (13.6% vs. 9.6%, respiratory distress (27.3% vs. 16.1%, hypoglycaemia (36.8% vs. 25.8%, hyperbilirubinaemia (31.8% vs. 29%, and NICU admission >2 days (95.4% vs. 64.5%. A high HbA1c was found to be comparable to OGTT in predicting adverse maternal outcome in GDM patients while a poor foetal outcome was more commonly associated with HbA1c >6%. CONCLUSIONS HbA1c is a sensitive tool for prediction of foetomaternal outcomes in patients with abnormal blood glucose value; hence, it should be advised in all pregnant women.

  12. Do treatment quality indicators predict cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grigory Sidorenkov

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Landmark clinical trials have led to optimal treatment recommendations for patients with diabetes. Whether optimal treatment is actually delivered in practice is even more important than the efficacy of the drugs tested in trials. To this end, treatment quality indicators have been developed and tested against intermediate outcomes. No studies have tested whether these treatment quality indicators also predict hard patient outcomes. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using data collected from >10.000 diabetes patients in the Groningen Initiative to Analyze Type 2 Treatment (GIANTT database and Dutch Hospital Data register. Included quality indicators measured glucose-, lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status and treatment intensification. Hard patient outcome was the composite of cardiovascular events and all-cause death. Associations were tested using Cox regression adjusting for confounding, reporting hazard ratios (HR with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Lipid and albuminuria treatment status, but not blood pressure lowering treatment status, were associated with the composite outcome (HR = 0.77, 0.67-0.88; HR = 0.75, 0.59-0.94. Glucose lowering treatment status was associated with the composite outcome only in patients with an elevated HbA1c level (HR = 0.72, 0.56-0.93. Treatment intensification with glucose-lowering but not with lipid-, blood pressure- and albuminuria-lowering drugs was associated with the outcome (HR = 0.73, 0.60-0.89. CONCLUSION: Treatment quality indicators measuring lipid- and albuminuria-lowering treatment status are valid quality measures, since they predict a lower risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with diabetes. The quality indicators for glucose-lowering treatment should only be used for restricted populations with elevated HbA1c levels. Intriguingly, the tested indicators for blood pressure-lowering treatment did not predict patient

  13. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light chain levels predict visual outcome after optic neuritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, Signe; Degn, M; Sander, B

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Optic neuritis is a good model for multiple sclerosis relapse, but currently no tests can accurately predict visual outcome. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of tissue damage and remodelling (neurofilament light chain (NF-L...... cell layer+inner plexiform layer (GC-IPL) thicknesses. RESULTS: CSF NF-L levels at onset predicted inter-ocular differences in follow-up LCVA (β=13.8, p=0.0008), RNFL (β=5.6, p=0.0004) and GC-IPL (β=4.0, p=0.0008). The acute-phase GC-IPL thickness also predicted follow-up LCVA (β=12.9, p=0.0021 for NF-L......, β=-1.1, p=0.0150 for GC-IPL). Complete/incomplete remission was determined based on LCVA from 30 healthy controls. NF-L had a positive predictive value of 91% and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 for incomplete remission. CONCLUSION: CSF NF-L is a promising biomarker of visual outcome after...

  14. Can subjective characteristics of benign headache predict manipulative physiotherapy treatment outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niere, Ken

    1998-01-01

    This study aimed to identify whether particular subjective reports of headache sufferers were predictive of outcome with manipulative physiotherapy treatment. One hundred and twelve subjects presenting for manipulative physiotherapy completed questionnaires relating to headache frequency, intensity, duration, pain quality, area, history and aggravating factors. Classification of treatment response was made using data collected two months after the initial visit. Diet as an aggravating factor, affective and autonomic pain descriptors, unilateral headaches and low frequencies each predicted a negative response to treatment. High frequencies predicted a positive response. If it is assumed that the treatment addressed cervical dysfunction then the cervical spine could have a varying component in a range of headache types rather than occupying a strict diagnostic category.

  15. Automated prediction of tissue outcome after acute ischemic stroke in computed tomography perfusion images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Pieter C.; Bennink, Edwin; de Jong, Hugo; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; Viergever, Max A.; Dankbaar, Jan Willem

    2015-03-01

    Assessment of the extent of cerebral damage on admission in patients with acute ischemic stroke could play an important role in treatment decision making. Computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging can be used to determine the extent of damage. However, clinical application is hindered by differences among vendors and used methodology. As a result, threshold based methods and visual assessment of CTP images has not yet shown to be useful in treatment decision making and predicting clinical outcome. Preliminary results in MR studies have shown the benefit of using supervised classifiers for predicting tissue outcome, but this has not been demonstrated for CTP. We present a novel method for the automatic prediction of tissue outcome by combining multi-parametric CTP images into a tissue outcome probability map. A supervised classification scheme was developed to extract absolute and relative perfusion values from processed CTP images that are summarized by a trained classifier into a likelihood of infarction. Training was performed using follow-up CT scans of 20 acute stroke patients with complete recanalization of the vessel that was occluded on admission. Infarcted regions were annotated by expert neuroradiologists. Multiple classifiers were evaluated in a leave-one-patient-out strategy for their discriminating performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistics. Results showed that a RandomForest classifier performed optimally with an area under the ROC of 0.90 for discriminating infarct tissue. The obtained results are an improvement over existing thresholding methods and are in line with results found in literature where MR perfusion was used.

  16. Deep learning for tissue microarray image-based outcome prediction in patients with colorectal cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bychkov, Dmitrii; Turkki, Riku; Haglund, Caj; Linder, Nina; Lundin, Johan

    2016-03-01

    Recent advances in computer vision enable increasingly accurate automated pattern classification. In the current study we evaluate whether a convolutional neural network (CNN) can be trained to predict disease outcome in patients with colorectal cancer based on images of tumor tissue microarray samples. We compare the prognostic accuracy of CNN features extracted from the whole, unsegmented tissue microarray spot image, with that of CNN features extracted from the epithelial and non-epithelial compartments, respectively. The prognostic accuracy of visually assessed histologic grade is used as a reference. The image data set consists of digitized hematoxylin-eosin (H and E) stained tissue microarray samples obtained from 180 patients with colorectal cancer. The patient samples represent a variety of histological grades, have data available on a series of clinicopathological variables including long-term outcome and ground truth annotations performed by experts. The CNN features extracted from images of the epithelial tissue compartment significantly predicted outcome (hazard ratio (HR) 2.08; CI95% 1.04-4.16; area under the curve (AUC) 0.66) in a test set of 60 patients, as compared to the CNN features extracted from unsegmented images (HR 1.67; CI95% 0.84-3.31, AUC 0.57) and visually assessed histologic grade (HR 1.96; CI95% 0.99-3.88, AUC 0.61). As a conclusion, a deep-learning classifier can be trained to predict outcome of colorectal cancer based on images of H and E stained tissue microarray samples and the CNN features extracted from the epithelial compartment only resulted in a prognostic discrimination comparable to that of visually determined histologic grade.

  17. Early prediction of functional outcome using dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in experimental stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei-Yuan; Wu, Gang; Li, Jian-Jun; Geng, Dao-Ying; Tan, Wen-Li; Yu, Xiang-Rong

    2016-09-01

    Early prediction of functional outcome in cerebral ischemia stroke using MRI remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI in terms of functional outcome of ischemia stroke. Right middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) was performed in male SD rats (n=50), followed by withdrawal of the occluding filament after 3 (n = 10), 4 (n = 10), 5 (n = 10), 6 (n = 10) or 7 (n = 10) h to establish ischemia and reperfusion stroke. DCE and conventional MRI were performed in each animal 60 ± 15 min before and after reperfusion. The outcome was assessed by the modified Neurological Severity Scores (mNSS) (before reperfusion and at 72 h after reperfusion) and the infarct volume. Comparisons of functional prognosis and DCE parameters (K(trans), Ve and Kep) were performed using binary logistic regression and operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. DCE parameters results indicated that blood brain barrier (BBB) permeability increased with prolonged reperfusion timing. Using binary logistic regression analysis on stroke characteristics (reperfusion timing, infarct volume) and BBB permeability parameters (drK(trans)subcortex, drK(trans)cortex, drVesubcortex, drVecortex, drKepsubcortex and drKepcortex) as covariates , the results demonstrated that reperfusion timing, infarct volume, drK(trans)subcortex and drKepsubcortex were independent factors that were associated with prognosis (OR=0.01, OR=0.23, OR=245.23, OR=1.29). ROC analysis indicated that a drK(trans)subcortex threshold of 0.88 with a sensitivity of 95.7% and a specificity of 85.2% and a drKepsubcortex threshold of -0.25 with a sensitivity of 69.6% and a specificity of 70.4% for differentiation between favourable and unfavourable prognosis. Quantitative DCE-MRI can be used to predict the functional outcomes of cerebral ischemia injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craigon, Peter J.; Blythe, Simon A.; England, Gary C. W.; Asher, Lucy

    2017-01-01

    Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5–8, 8–12 and 5–12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in

  19. Parkinsonian motor impairment predicts personality domains related to genetic risk and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan L; Calvó, María; Padilla, Eduardo; Balda, Mara; Alemán, Gabriela González; Florenzano, Néstor V; Guerrero, Gonzalo; Kamis, Danielle; Rangeon, Beatriz Molina; Bourdieu, Mercedes; Strejilevich, Sergio A; Conesa, Horacio A; Escobar, Javier I; Zwir, Igor; Cloninger, C Robert; de Erausquin, Gabriel A

    2017-01-01

    Identifying endophenotypes of schizophrenia is of critical importance and has profound implications on clinical practice. Here we propose an innovative approach to clarify the mechanims through which temperament and character deviance relates to risk for schizophrenia and predict long-term treatment outcomes. We recruited 61 antipsychotic naïve subjects with chronic schizophrenia, 99 unaffected relatives, and 68 healthy controls from rural communities in the Central Andes. Diagnosis was ascertained with the Schedules of Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry; parkinsonian motor impairment was measured with the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale; mesencephalic parenchyma was evaluated with transcranial ultrasound; and personality traits were assessed using the Temperament and Character Inventory. Ten-year outcome data was available for ~40% of the index cases. Patients with schizophrenia had higher harm avoidance and self-transcendence (ST), and lower reward dependence (RD), cooperativeness (CO), and self-directedness (SD). Unaffected relatives had higher ST and lower CO and SD. Parkinsonism reliably predicted RD, CO, and SD after correcting for age and sex. The average duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) was over 5 years. Further, SD was anticorrelated with DUP and antipsychotic dosing at follow-up. Baseline DUP was related to antipsychotic dose-years. Further, 'explosive/borderline', 'methodical/obsessive', and 'disorganized/schizotypal' personality profiles were associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. Parkinsonism predicts core personality features and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia. Our study suggests that RD, CO, and SD are endophenotypes of the disease that may, in part, be mediated by dopaminergic function. Further, SD is an important determinant of treatment course and outcome.

  20. Parkinsonian motor impairment predicts personality domains related to genetic risk and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan L; Calvó, María; Padilla, Eduardo; Balda, Mara; Alemán, Gabriela González; Florenzano, Néstor V; Guerrero, Gonzalo; Kamis, Danielle; Rangeon, Beatriz Molina; Bourdieu, Mercedes; Strejilevich, Sergio A; Conesa, Horacio A; Escobar, Javier I; Zwir, Igor; Cloninger, C Robert; de Erausquin, Gabriel A

    2017-01-01

    Identifying endophenotypes of schizophrenia is of critical importance and has profound implications on clinical practice. Here we propose an innovative approach to clarify the mechanims through which temperament and character deviance relates to risk for schizophrenia and predict long-term treatment outcomes. We recruited 61 antipsychotic naïve subjects with chronic schizophrenia, 99 unaffected relatives, and 68 healthy controls from rural communities in the Central Andes. Diagnosis was ascertained with the Schedules of Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry; parkinsonian motor impairment was measured with the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale; mesencephalic parenchyma was evaluated with transcranial ultrasound; and personality traits were assessed using the Temperament and Character Inventory. Ten-year outcome data was available for ~40% of the index cases. Patients with schizophrenia had higher harm avoidance and self-transcendence (ST), and lower reward dependence (RD), cooperativeness (CO), and self-directedness (SD). Unaffected relatives had higher ST and lower CO and SD. Parkinsonism reliably predicted RD, CO, and SD after correcting for age and sex. The average duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) was over 5 years. Further, SD was anticorrelated with DUP and antipsychotic dosing at follow-up. Baseline DUP was related to antipsychotic dose-years. Further, ‘explosive/borderline’, ‘methodical/obsessive’, and ‘disorganized/schizotypal’ personality profiles were associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. Parkinsonism predicts core personality features and treatment outcomes in schizophrenia. Our study suggests that RD, CO, and SD are endophenotypes of the disease that may, in part, be mediated by dopaminergic function. Further, SD is an important determinant of treatment course and outcome. PMID:28127577

  1. Scoring Systems for Outcome Prediction in a Cardiac Surgical Intensive Care Unit: A Comparative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchopoulos, Themistocles; Charitidou, Efstratia; Dedeilias, Panagiotis; Charitos, Christos; Routsi, Christina

    2015-07-01

    Most scoring systems used to predict clinical outcome in critical care were not designed for application in cardiac surgery patients. To compare the predictive ability of the most widely used scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA]) and of 2 specialized systems (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation [EuroSCORE] II and the cardiac surgery score [CASUS]) for clinical outcome in patients after cardiac surgery. Consecutive patients admitted to a cardiac surgical intensive care unit (CSICU) were prospectively studied. Data on the preoperative condition, intraoperative parameters, and postoperative course were collected. EuroSCORE II, CASUS, and scores from 3 general severity-scoring systems (APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA) were calculated on the first postoperative day. Clinical outcome was defined as 30-day mortality and in-hospital morbidity. A total of 150 patients were included. Thirty-day mortality was 6%. CASUS was superior in outcome prediction, both in relation to discrimination (area under curve, 0.89) and calibration (Brier score = 0.043, χ(2) = 2.2, P = .89), followed by EuroSCORE II for 30-day mortality (area under curve, 0.87) and SOFA for morbidity (Spearman ρ= 0.37 and 0.35 for the CSICU length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation, respectively; Wilcoxon W = 367.5, P = .03 for probability of readmission to CSICU). CASUS can be recommended as the most reliable and beneficial option for benchmarking and risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients. ©2015 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  2. Acute post-traumatic stress symptoms and age predict outcome in military blast concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mac Donald, Christine L; Adam, Octavian R; Johnson, Ann M; Nelson, Elliot C; Werner, Nicole J; Rivet, Dennis J; Brody, David L

    2015-05-01

    High rates of adverse outcomes have been reported following blast-related concussive traumatic brain injury in US military personnel, but the extent to which such adverse outcomes can be predicted acutely after injury is unknown. We performed a prospective, observational study of US military personnel with blast-related concussive traumatic brain injury (n = 38) and controls (n = 34) enrolled between March and September 2012. Importantly all subjects returned to duty and did not require evacuation. Subjects were evaluated acutely 0-7 days after injury at two sites in Afghanistan and again 6-12 months later in the United States. Acute assessments revealed heightened post-concussive, post-traumatic stress, and depressive symptoms along with worse cognitive performance in subjects with traumatic brain injury. At 6-12 months follow-up, 63% of subjects with traumatic brain injury and 20% of controls had moderate overall disability. Subjects with traumatic brain injury showed more severe neurobehavioural, post-traumatic stress and depression symptoms along with more frequent cognitive performance deficits and more substantial headache impairment than control subjects. Logistic regression modelling using only acute measures identified that a diagnosis of traumatic brain injury, older age, and more severe post-traumatic stress symptoms provided a good prediction of later adverse global outcomes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve = 0.84). Thus, US military personnel with concussive blast-related traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan who returned to duty still fared quite poorly on many clinical outcome measures 6-12 months after injury. Poor global outcome seems to be largely driven by psychological health measures, age, and traumatic brain injury status. The effects of early interventions and longer term implications of these findings are unknown.

  3. Developing and Testing a Model to Predict Outcomes of Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, David H; Sainfort, François; Eichler, Mary; Adams, Laura; Bisognano, Maureen; Steudel, Harold

    2003-01-01

    Objective To test the effectiveness of a Bayesian model employing subjective probability estimates for predicting success and failure of health care improvement projects. Data Sources Experts' subjective assessment data for model development and independent retrospective data on 221 healthcare improvement projects in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands collected between 1996 and 2000 for validation. Methods A panel of theoretical and practical experts and literature in organizational change were used to identify factors predicting the outcome of improvement efforts. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate probability of successful change using subjective estimates of likelihood ratios and prior odds elicited from the panel of experts. A subsequent retrospective empirical analysis of change efforts in 198 health care organizations was performed to validate the model. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance using three alternative definitions of success. Data Collection For the model development, experts' subjective assessments were elicited using an integrative group process. For the validation study, a staff person intimately involved in each improvement project responded to a written survey asking questions about model factors and project outcomes. Results Logistic regression chi-square statistics and areas under the ROC curve demonstrated a high level of model performance in predicting success. Chi-square statistics were significant at the 0.001 level and areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.84. Conclusions A subjective Bayesian model was effective in predicting the outcome of actual improvement projects. Additional prospective evaluations as well as testing the impact of this model as an intervention are warranted. PMID:12785571

  4. Nucleated red blood cells and early EEG: predicting Sarnat stage and two year outcome.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Walsh, B H

    2012-01-31

    AIMS: Hypoxic Ischaemic Encephalopathy (HIE) causes characteristic changes of the electroencephalogram (EEG), and a raised Nucleated Red Blood Cell (NRBC) count compared to controls. We wished to examine whether combining these markers could improve their ability to predict HIE severity in the first 24h. METHODS: Term infants with HIE were recruited. NRBC count and continuous multi-channel EEG were recorded within the first 24h. Neurological assessment was carried out at 24 months. A control population with NRBC counts in the first 24h was recruited. RESULTS: 44 infants with HIE and 43 control infants were recruited. Of the HIE population 39 completed a 2 year follow-up. The median NRBC count differed significantly between the controls and those with HIE (3\\/100 WBC [range of 0-11] vs 12.3\\/100 WBC [0-240]) (p<0.001). Within the HIE population the median NRBC count was significantly greater in infants with moderate\\/severe HIE than mild (16\\/100 WBC [range of 0-240] vs 8\\/100 WBC [1-23]) (p=0.016), and among infants with abnormal outcome compared to normal (21.3\\/100 WBC [1-239.8] vs 8.3\\/100 WBC [0-50])(p=0.03). The predictive ability of EEG changed with time post-delivery, therefore results are given at both 12 and 24h of age. At both time points the combined marker had a stronger correlation than EEG alone; with HIE severity (12h: r=0.661 vs r=0.622), (24h: r=0.645 vs r=0.598), and with outcome at 2 years (12h: r=0.756 vs r=0.652), (24h: r=0.802 vs r=0.746). CONCLUSION: Combining early EEG and NRBC count to predict HIE severity and neurological outcome, improved the predictive ability of either in isolation.

  5. US-guided percutaneous cholecystostomy: features predicting culture-positive bile and clinical outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosna, Jacob; Kruskal, Jonathan B; Copel, Laurian; Goldberg, S Nahum; Kane, Robert A

    2004-03-01

    To assess sonographic and clinical features that might be used to predict infected bile and/or patient outcome from ultrasonography (US)-guided percutaneous cholecystostomy. Between February 1997 and August 2002 at one institution, 112 patients underwent US-guided percutaneous cholecystostomy (59 men, 53 women; average age, 69.3 years). All US images were scored on a defined semiquantitative scale according to preset parameters: (a) gallbladder distention, (b) sludge and/or stones, (c) wall appearance, (d) pericholecystic fluid, and (e) common bile duct size and/or choledocholithiasis. Separate and total scores were generated. Retrospective evaluation of (a) the bacteriologic growth of aspirated bile and its color and (b) clinical indices (fever, white blood cell count, bilirubin level, liver function test results) was conducted by reviewing medical records. For each patient, the clinical manifestation was classified into four groups: (a) localized right upper quadrant symptoms, (b) generalized abdominal symptoms, (c) unexplained sepsis, or (d) sepsis with other known infection. Logistic regression models, exact Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used. Forty-seven (44%) of 107 patients had infected bile. A logistic regression model showed that wall appearance, distention, bile color, and pericholecystic fluid were not individually significant predictors for culture-positive bile, leaving sludge and/or stones (P =.003, odds ratio = 1.647), common bile duct status (P =.02, odds ratio = 2.214), and total score (P =.007, odds ratio = 1.267). No US covariates or clinical indices predicted clinical outcome. Clinical manifestation was predictive of clinical outcome (P =.001) and aspirating culture-positive bile (P =.008); specifically, 30 (86%) of 35 patients with right upper quadrant symptoms had their condition improve, compared with one (7%) of 15 asymptomatic patients with other known causes of infection. US variables can be used to predict

  6. Adolescent Eating Disorders Predict Psychiatric, High-Risk Behaviors and Weight Outcomes in Young Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micali, Nadia; Solmi, Francesca; Horton, Nicholas J; Crosby, Ross D; Eddy, Kamryn T; Calzo, Jerel P; Sonneville, Kendrin R; Swanson, Sonja A; Field, Alison E

    2015-08-01

    To investigate whether anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and other specified feeding and eating disorders (OSFED), including purging disorder (PD), subthreshold BN, and BED at ages 14 and 16 years, are prospectively associated with later depression, anxiety disorders, alcohol and substance use, and self-harm. Eating disorders were ascertained at ages 14 and 16 years in 6,140 youth at age 14 (58% of those eligible) and 5,069 at age 16 (52% of those eligible) as part of the prospective Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Outcomes (depression, anxiety disorders, binge drinking, drug use, deliberate self-harm, weight status) were measured using interviews and questionnaires about 2 years after predictors. Generalized estimating equation models adjusting for gender, socio-demographic variables, and prior outcome were used to examine prospective associations between eating disorders and each outcome. All eating disorders were predictive of later anxiety disorders. AN, BN, BED, PD, and OSFED were prospectively associated with depression (respectively AN: odds ratio [OR] = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.00-1.94; BN: OR = 3.39, 95% CI = 1.25-9.20; BED: OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.06-3.75; and PD: OR = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.38-4.74). All eating disorders but AN predicted drug use and deliberate self-harm (BN: OR = 5.72, 95% CI = 2.22-14.72; PD: OR = 4.88, 95% CI = 2.78-8.57; subthreshold BN: OR = 3.97, 95% CI = 1.44-10.98; and subthreshold BED: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.43-3.75). Although BED and BN predicted obesity (respectively OR = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.06-12.14 and OR = 6.42, 95% CI = 1.69-24.30), AN was prospectively associated with underweight. Adolescent eating disorders, including subthreshold presentations, predict negative outcomes, including mental health disorders, substance use, deliberate self-harm, and weight outcomes. This study highlights the high public health and clinical burden of eating disorders

  7. Positive PD-L1 Expression Predicts Worse Outcome in Cutaneous Angiosarcoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Akira; Okubo, Yuko; Utsumi, Daisuke; Yasuda, Masahito; Asao, Takayuki; Nishiyama, Masahiko; Takahashi, Kenzo; Ishikawa, Osamu

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Programmed death-1 (PD-1) or programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) targeted therapies have shown promising survival outcomes in several human neoplasms. However, it is unclear whether the expression of PD-L1 can be correlated to any clinical and pathologic variables in patients with cutaneous angiosarcoma (CA). The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathological significance of PD-L1 expression in CA patients. Materials and Methods Data from 52 patients with CA were retrospectively reviewed. PD-L1 expression, tumor proliferation determined by Ki-67 index, and immunohistochemical evaluation of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, CD4+ and CD8+, were used to determine correlation with clinicopathological variables. Results PD-L1 was positively expressed in 40% of all patients. PD-L1 expression was significantly associated with tumor cell proliferation. Multivariate analysis confirmed that high levels of CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes were a significant predictor in patients with clinical stage I CA and the positive expression of PD-L1 was an independent prognostic factor in predicting worse outcome. Conclusion PD-L1 expression is a novel pathologic marker for predicting worse outcome in patients with CA. PMID:28831444

  8. External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Turc

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT- DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA.We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013 anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France, where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively.We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34% patients. The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54.The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

  9. Diffuse optical measurements of head and neck tumor hemodynamics for early prediction of chemoradiation therapy outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Lixin; Kudrimoti, Mahesh; Irwin, Daniel; Chen, Li; Kumar, Sameera; Shang, Yu; Huang, Chong; Johnson, Ellis L.; Stevens, Scott D.; Shelton, Brent J.; Yu, Guoqiang

    2016-08-01

    This study used a hybrid near-infrared diffuse optical instrument to monitor tumor hemodynamic responses to chemoradiation therapy for early prediction of treatment outcomes in patients with head and neck cancer. Forty-seven patients were measured once per week to evaluate the hemodynamic status of clinically involved cervical lymph nodes as surrogates for the primary tumor response. Patients were classified into two groups: complete response (CR) (n=29) and incomplete response (IR) (n=18). Tumor hemodynamic responses were found to be associated with clinical outcomes (CR/IR), wherein the associations differed depending on human papillomavirus (HPV-16) status. In HPV-16 positive patients, significantly lower levels in tumor oxygenated hemoglobin concentration ([HbO2]) at weeks 1 to 3, total hemoglobin concentration at week 3, and blood oxygen saturation (StO2) at week 3 were found in the IR group. In HPV-16 negative patients, significantly higher levels in tumor blood flow index and reduced scattering coefficient (μs‧) at week 3 were observed in the IR group. These hemodynamic parameters exhibited significantly high accuracy for early prediction of clinical outcomes, within the first three weeks of therapy, with the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) ranging from 0.83 to 0.96.

  10. Serum YKL-40 independently predicts outcome after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization of hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Bao Zhu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE is the most widely used treatment option for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. Elevated serum YKL-40 level has been shown to predict poor prognosis in HCC patients undergoing resection. This study was designed to validate the prognostic significance of serum YKL-40 in patients with HCC undergoing TACE treatment. METHODS: Serum YKL-40 level was determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall survival (OS was evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariate study with Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate independent prognostic variables of OS. RESULTS: The median pretreatment serum YKL-40 in HCC patients with was significantly higher than that in healthy controls (P<0.001. The YKL-40 could predict survival precisely either in a dichotomized or continuous fashion (P<0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that serum YKL-40 was an independent prognostic factor for OS in HCC patients (P = 0.001. In further stratified analyses, YKL-40 could discriminate the outcomes of patients with low and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP level (P = 0.006 and 0.016, respectively. Furthermore, the combination of serum YKL-40 and AFP had more capacity to predict patients' outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Serum YKL-40 was demonstrated to be an independent prognostic biomarker in HCC patients treated with TACE. Our results need confirmation in an independent study.

  11. Predictive factors for pregnancy after intrauterine insemination: A prospective study of factors affecting outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan S Kamath

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To determine the predictive factors for pregnancy after controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH/intrauterine insemination (IUI. Design : Prospective observational study. Setting : University-level tertiary care center. Patients and Methods : 366 patients undergoing 480 stimulated IUI cycles between November 2007 and December 2008. Interventions : Ovarian stimulation with gonadotrophins was initiated and a single IUI was performed 36 h after triggering ovulation. Main Outcome Measures : The primary outcome measures were clinical pregnancy and live birth rates. Predictive factors evaluated were female age, duration of infertility, indication for IUI, number of preovulatory follicles, luteinizing hormone level on day of trigger and postwash total motile fraction (TMF. Results : The overall clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate were 8.75% and 5.83%, respectively. Among the predictive factors evaluated, the duration of infertility (5.36 vs. 6.71 years, P = 0.032 and the TMF (between 10 and 20 million, P = 0.002 significantly influenced the clinical pregnancy rate. Conclusion : Our results indicate that COH/IUI is not an effective option in couples with infertility due to a male factor. Prolonged duration of infertility is also associated with decreased success, and should be considered when planning treatment.

  12. Do ictal EEG characteristics predict treatment outcomes in schizophrenic patients undergoing electroconvulsive therapy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Gulnihal Gokce; Zincir, Selma; Gulec, Huseyin; Eksioglu, Sevgin; Semiz, Umit Basar; Kurtulmus, Yasemin Sipka

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between features of electroencephalography (EEG), including seizure time, energy threshold level and post-ictal suppression time, and clinical variables, including treatment outcomes and side-effects, among schizophrenia inpatients undergoing electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). This is a naturalistic follow-up study on schizophrenia patients, diagnosed using DSM-IV-TR criteria, treated by a psychosis inpatient service. All participants completed the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale, the Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) and a Data Collection Form. Assessments were made before treatment, during ECT and after treatment. Statistically significant improvements in both clinical and cognitive outcome were noted after ECT in all patients. Predictors of improvement were sought by evaluating electrophysiological variables measured at three time points (after the third, fifth and seventh ECT sessions). Logistic regression analysis showed that clinical outcome/improvement did not differ by seizure duration, threshold energy level or post-ictal suppression time. We found that ictal EEG parameters measured at several ECT sessions did not predict clinical recovery/outcomes. This may be because our centre defensively engages in "very specific patient selection" when ECT is contemplated. ECT does not cause short-term cognitive functional impairment and indeed improves cognition, because symptoms of the schizophrenic episode are alleviated.

  13. Application and performance of two stroke outcome prediction models in a chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wen-Juan; Gao, Zhi-Yu; He, Yang; Liu, Guang-Zhi; Gao, Xu-Guang

    2012-02-01

    To apply and examine the performance of 2 acute stroke outcome prediction models, the Six Simple Variable Model (SSV model) and the One-Year Mortality Model (OYM model), in patients in China who had either a cerebral infarction or a cerebral hemorrhage. An observational study that used both retrospective and prospective study methods. A regional acute care facility in China. Two hundred and forty-eight consecutive patients who had an acute stroke who were admitted to the hospital between October 2007 and March 2009. Not applicable. Survival and daily activity independence 6 months after a stroke and 1-year mortality. The study sample had a mean age of 68.6 years (standard deviation, 11.1); 52.8% of the subjects were men, 66.5% had a cerebral infarction, and 33.5% had a cerebral hemorrhage. In the cohort, 107 patients (43.1%) achieved daily activity independence at 6-month follow-up, and 52 patients (21.0%) had died within 1 year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 (0.935-0.998) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.859 (0.766-0.952) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 6-month survival and daily activity independence with use of the SSV model. The area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (0.846-0.965) for patients who had a cerebral infarction and 0.937 (0.904-0.988) for patients who had a cerebral hemorrhage in the prediction of 1-year mortality when the OYM model was used. Both the SSV and OYM prognostic models can be used for function and mortality outcome prediction for patients in China who have had a stroke. Variation existed in the precision of prediction between patients who had a cerebral infarction and those who had a cerebral hemorrhage. Other potential factors influencing functional recovery and mortality after stroke must be considered in outcome prediction. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The orbitofrontal oracle: cortical mechanisms for the prediction and evaluation of specific behavioral outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudebeck, Peter H; Murray, Elisabeth A

    2014-12-17

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has long been associated with the flexible control of behavior and concepts such as behavioral inhibition, self-control, and emotional regulation. These ideas emphasize the suppression of behaviors and emotions, but OFC's affirmative functions have remained enigmatic. Here we review recent work that has advanced our understanding of this prefrontal area and how its functions are shaped through interaction with subcortical structures such as the amygdala. Recent findings have overturned theories emphasizing behavioral inhibition as OFC's fundamental function. Instead, new findings indicate that OFC provides predictions about specific outcomes associated with stimuli, choices, and actions, especially their moment-to-moment value based on current internal states. OFC function thereby encompasses a broad representation or model of an individual's sensory milieu and potential actions, along with their relationship to likely behavioral outcomes.

  15. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G; Bush, Ashley I

    2015-05-19

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD.

  16. Acute axonal damage predicts clinical outcome in patients with multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lim, E.T; Sellebjerg, F; Jensen, C.V

    2005-01-01

    The objectives of this study were (1) to determine how cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament heavy chain (NfH(SM134) and NfH(SM135)) levels relate to clinical outcome in optic neuritis (ON) and multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse patients treated with high dose oral methylprednisolone; and (2...... in the MS attack trial were treated with oral methylprednisolone. In the MS attack trial group, CSF NfH(SM134) and NfH(SM135) measured at week 3 and deltaCSF NfH(SMI34) levels from baseline to week 3 were predictive of clinical outcome at week 8 and 52. In the ON group, no such association was seen. When...... both groups were combined, baseline CSF NfH(SHM134) and NfH(SM135) correlated positively with baseline enhancing lesion volume (ELV) (r(s) =0.50, P

  17. Can exaggerated stress reactivity and prolonged recovery predict negative health outcomes? The case of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovallo, William R

    2015-04-01

    Researchers and laypersons have long argued that stress is bad for health, particularly when responses are large, prolonged, and frequent. By extension, individuals who have the largest and the most prolonged responses are assumed to have worse outcomes than do less reactive persons. Research in animals has been supportive of the connection between stress and poor health, but evidence in humans has been slow to accumulate. The current issue of Psychosomatic Medicine presents a meta-analysis of 33 studies of delayed recovery from stress and its association with poor cardiovascular disease outcomes and all-cause mortality. The analysis supports the contention that slower recovery to baseline after exercise or psychological stress may predict earlier death due to all causes. This finding raises questions for psychosomatic theories of disease and points the direction for further study of how or whether to incorporate reactivity measures into standard risk profiles.

  18. Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaya S. Moskowitz

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.

  19. Cognitive dysfunction at baseline predicts symptomatic 1-year outcome in first-episode schizophrenics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moritz, S; Krausz, M; Gottwalz, E; Lambert, M; Perro, C; Ganzer, S; Naber, D

    2000-01-01

    The present study addresses the consequences of cognitive disturbances on symptomatic outcome. Fifty-three first-episode schizophrenics were reassessed (n = 32) 1 year after admission. Simple regression analyses revealed that several self-perceived cognitive deficits at baseline as measured with the Frankfurt Complaint Questionnaire significantly predicted increased Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale global scores at follow-up (p = 0.05 to p = 0.005). A stepwise regression analysis proved memory dysfunction to be the strongest predictor of symptomatic worsening (p = 0.005). It is suggested that the exploration and treatment of neuropsychological deficits in schizophrenia is of great clinical importance with regard to its impact on both functional and symptomatic outcome in schizophrenia. Copyright 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel

  20. Predicting IVF Outcome: A Proposed Web-based System Using Artificial Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siristatidis, Charalampos; Vogiatzi, Paraskevi; Pouliakis, Abraham; Trivella, Marialenna; Papantoniou, Nikolaos; Bettocchi, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    To propose a functional in vitro fertilization (IVF) prediction model to assist clinicians in tailoring personalized treatment of subfertile couples and improve assisted reproduction outcome. Construction and evaluation of an enhanced web-based system with a novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture and conformed input and output parameters according to the clinical and bibliographical standards, driven by a complete data set and "trained" by a network expert in an IVF setting. The system is capable to act as a routine information technology platform for the IVF unit and is capable of recalling and evaluating a vast amount of information in a rapid and automated manner to provide an objective indication on the outcome of an artificial reproductive cycle. ANNs are an exceptional candidate in providing the fertility specialist with numerical estimates to promote personalization of healthcare and adaptation of the course of treatment according to the indications. Copyright © 2016 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

  1. The utility of pulmonary function testing in predicting outcomes following liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kia, Leila; Cuttica, Michael J; Yang, Amy; Donnan, Erica N; Whitsett, Maureen; Singhvi, Ajay; Lemmer, Alexander; Levitsky, Josh

    2016-06-01

    Although pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are routinely performed in patients during the evaluation period before liver transplantation (LT), their utility in predicting post-LT mortality and morbidity outcomes is not known. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of obstructive and/or restrictive lung disease on post-LT outcomes. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had pre-LT PFTs and underwent a subsequent LT (2007-2013). We used statistical analyses to determine independent associations between PFT parameters and outcomes (graft/patient survival, time on ventilator, and hospital/intensive care unit [ICU] length of stay [LOS]). A total of 415 LT recipients with available PFT data were included: 65% of patients had normal PFTs; 8% had obstructive lung disease; and 27% had restrictive lung disease. There was no difference in patient and graft survival between patients with normal, obstructive, and restrictive lung disease. However, restrictive lung disease was associated with longer post-LT time on ventilator and both ICU and hospital LOS (P < 0.05). More specific PFT parameters (diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide, total lung capacity, and residual volume) were all significant predictors of ventilator time and both ICU and hospital LOS (P < 0.05). Although pre-LT PFT parameters may not predict post-LT mortality, restrictive abnormalities correlate with prolonged post-LT ventilation and LOS. Efforts to identify and minimize the impact of restrictive abnormalities on PFTs might improve such outcomes. Liver Transplantation 22 805-811 2016 AASLD.

  2. Optic nerve diffusion tensor imaging after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Walt, Anneke; Kolbe, Scott C; Wang, Yejun E; Klistorner, Alexander; Shuey, Neil; Ahmadi, Gelareh; Paine, Mark; Marriott, Mark; Mitchell, Peter; Egan, Gary F; Butzkueven, Helmut; Kilpatrick, Trevor J

    2013-01-01

    Early markers of axonal and clinical outcomes are required for early phase testing of putative neuroprotective therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS). To assess whether early measurement of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) parameters (axial and radial diffusivity) within the optic nerve during and after acute demyelinating optic neuritis (ON) could predict axonal (retinal nerve fibre layer thinning and multi-focal visual evoked potential amplitude reduction) or clinical (visual acuity and visual field loss) outcomes at 6 or 12 months. Thirty-seven patients presenting with acute, unilateral ON were studied at baseline, one, three, six and 12 months using optic nerve DTI, clinical and paraclinical markers of axonal injury and clinical visual dysfunction. Affected nerve axial diffusivity (AD) was reduced at baseline, 1 and 3 months. Reduced 1-month AD correlated with retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thinning at 6 (R=0.38, p=0.04) and 12 months (R=0.437, p=0.008) and VEP amplitude loss at 6 (R=0.414, p=0.019) and 12 months (R=0.484, p=0.003). AD reduction at three months correlated with high contrast visual acuity at 6 (ρ = -0.519, p = 0.001) and 12 months (ρ = -0.414, p=0.011). The time-course for AD reduction for each patient was modelled using a quadratic regression. AD normalised after a median of 18 weeks and longer normalisation times were associated with more pronounced RNFL thinning and mfVEP amplitude loss at 12 months. Affected nerve radial diffusivity (RD) was unchanged until three months, after which time it remained elevated. These results demonstrate that AD reduces during acute ON. One month AD reduction correlates with the extent of axonal loss and persistent AD reduction at 3 months predicts poorer visual outcomes. This suggests that acute ON therapies that normalise optic nerve AD by 3 months could also promote axon survival and improve visual outcomes.

  3. Unilateral hip osteoarthritis: can we predict the outcome of the other hip?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vossinakis, I.C. [General Hospital of Volos, Orthopaedic Department, Volos (Greece); Georgiades, G. [General Hospital of Tripoli, Tripoli Greece, Orthopaedic Department, Athens (Greece); Hartofilakidis, G. [University of Athens Medical School, Department of Orthopaedics, Athens (Greece); Kafidas, D.

    2008-10-15

    The objective of this study was to define, in unilateral hip osteoarthritis (OA), factors predicting the outcome of the other hip. We examined the anteroposterior radiographs of the pelvis of 95 white patients with unilateral idiopathic (56 patients) or secondary to congenital hip diseases (39 patients) OA. The other hip was free from symptoms (pain or limping) at the initial examination and without radiographic evidence of OA; it was what we call a ''normal'' hip. Two parameters were evaluated: (1) the type of osteoarthritis of the involved hip and (2) the range of four radiographic indices of the contralateral hip: the sourcil inclination (weight-bearing surface), the acetabular angle, the Wiberg's center-edge angle, and the neck-shaft angle. Follow-up radiographs for the hips that remained OA-free were available for 10 to 35 years and for those that developed OA, at the time of initial symptoms, range 2 to 31 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that the presence of idiopathic OA in one hip had a statistically significant effect on the development of OA on the other hip (p<0.001). Minor deviations of radiographic indices of the contralateral hip is not a predictive factor for its outcome. When the radiographic indices are examined together with the pathology of the involved hip, only WBS was shown to have a significant effect to the development of OA and its type (p < 0.001). The following conclusions can be drawn from this study: 1. Patient with idiopathic OA of one hip is at increased risk of developing OA in the other hip. 2. The outcome of the other hip cannot be predicted only on the basis of the evaluation of its radiographic indices. 3. Among the different indices, WBS seems to have a strong influence toward the development of OA. (orig.)

  4. Do infant vocabulary skills predict school-age language and literacy outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duff, Fiona J; Reen, Gurpreet; Plunkett, Kim; Nation, Kate

    2015-08-01

    Strong associations between infant vocabulary and school-age language and literacy skills would have important practical and theoretical implications: Preschool assessment of vocabulary skills could be used to identify children at risk of reading and language difficulties, and vocabulary could be viewed as a cognitive foundation for reading. However, evidence to date suggests predictive ability from infant vocabulary to later language and literacy is low. This study provides an investigation into, and interpretation of, the magnitude of such infant to school-age relationships. Three hundred British infants whose vocabularies were assessed by parent report in the 2nd year of life (between 16 and 24 months) were followed up on average 5 years later (ages ranged from 4 to 9 years), when their vocabulary, phonological and reading skills were measured. Structural equation modelling of age-regressed scores was used to assess the strength of longitudinal relationships. Infant vocabulary (a latent factor of receptive and expressive vocabulary) was a statistically significant predictor of later vocabulary, phonological awareness, reading accuracy and reading comprehension (accounting for between 4% and 18% of variance). Family risk for language or literacy difficulties explained additional variance in reading (approximately 10%) but not language outcomes. Significant longitudinal relationships between preliteracy vocabulary knowledge and subsequent reading support the theory that vocabulary is a cognitive foundation of both reading accuracy and reading comprehension. Importantly however, the stability of vocabulary skills from infancy to later childhood is too low to be sufficiently predictive of language outcomes at an individual level - a finding that fits well with the observation that the majority of 'late talkers' resolve their early language difficulties. For reading outcomes, prediction of future difficulties is likely to be improved when considering family

  5. Can routine laboratory parameters predict adverse pregnancy outcomes in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oztas, Efser; Erkenekli, Kudret; Ozler, Sibel; Ersoy, Ali Ozgur; Kurt, Mevlut; Oztas, Erkin; Uygur, Dilek; Danisman, Nuri

    2015-11-01

    Our aim was to investigate whether any hematological changes readily detectable by simple complete blood count (CBC), as well as fasting and postprandial total serum bile acid (SBA) levels, have diagnostic values for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP). A prospective, case control study was carried out including 217 pregnant women (117 women with ICP and 100 healthy controls). The main outcome measures investigated were preterm delivery, APGAR scores, and neonatal unit admission. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Compared with controls, women with ICP had significantly higher mean platelet volume (MPV) (mean 10.2±1.0 vs. 11.0±1.3; P<0.001) and platelet distribution width (PDW) (mean 13.1±2.3 vs. 14.7±2.8; P<0.001) values. Analysis with logistic regression revealed that the probability of preterm delivery did not increase until MPV levels exceeded 11.2 fL [odds ratio (OR)=2.68, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.13-6.32, P=0.025], and total bilirubin levels exceeded 0.6 mg/dL (OR=3.13, 95% CI=1.21-8.09, P=0.019). Considering the low APGAR scores, only increased postprandial total SBA levels of ≥51 μmol/L were found to be predictive significantly (OR=3.02, 95% CI=1.07-8.53, P=0.037). Our study suggests that increased MPV and total bilirubin levels are associated with preterm delivery, and increased postprandial total SBA levels are predictive for low APGAR in ICP patients.

  6. ARID1A immunohistochemistry improves outcome prediction in invasive urothelial carcinoma of urinary bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faraj, Sheila F; Chaux, Alcides; Gonzalez-Roibon, Nilda; Munari, Enrico; Ellis, Carla; Driscoll, Tina; Schoenberg, Mark P; Bivalacqua, Trinity J; Shih, Ie-Ming; Netto, George J

    2014-11-01

    AT-rich interactive domain 1A (ARID1A) is tumor suppressor gene that interacts with BRG1 adenosine triphosphatase to form a SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling protein complex. Inactivation of ARID1A has been described in several neoplasms, including epithelial ovarian and endometrial carcinomas, and has been correlated with prognosis. In the current study, ARID1A expression in urothelial carcinoma (UC) of the bladder and its association with clinicopathological parameters and outcome are addressed. Five tissue microarrays were constructed from 136 cystectomy specimens performed for UC at our institution. Nuclear ARID1A staining was evaluated using immunohistochemistry. An H-score was calculated as the sum of the products of intensity (0-3) multiplied by extent of expression (0%-100%). Average H-score per case was used for statistical analysis. ARID1A expression was categorized in low and high using Youden index to define the cut point. ARID1A expression significantly increased from normal to noninvasive UC to invasive UC. For both tumor progression and cancer death, Youden index yielded an H-score of 288 as the optimal cut point for ARID1A expression. Low ARID1A expression showed a tendency for lower risk of tumor progression and cancer mortality. Adding ARID1A expression to pathologic features offers a better model for predicting outcome than pathologic features alone. Low ARID1A expression was more frequently seen in earlier stage disease. There was a tendency for low ARID1A expression to predict better outcome. More importantly, the findings indicate that adding ARID1A expression to pathologic features increases the goodness of fit of the predictive model.

  7. External lumbar drain: A pragmatic test for prediction of shunt outcomes in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silky Chotai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The consensus on most reliable supplemental test to predict the shunt responsiveness in patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH is lacking. The aim of this study is to discuss the utility of external lumbar drain (ELD in evaluation of shunt responsiveness for iNPH patients. Methods: A retrospective review of 66 patients with iNPH was conducted. All patients underwent 4-day ELD trial. ELD-positive patients were offered ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS surgery. The primary outcome evaluation parameters were gait and mini mental status examination (MMSE assessment. The family and patient perception of improvement was accounted for in the outcome evaluation. Results: There were 38 male and 28 female with mean age of 74 years (range 45-88 years. ELD trial was positive in 86% (57/66 of patients. No major complications were encountered with the ELD trial. A total of 60 patients (57 ELD-positive, 3 ELD-negative underwent VPS insertion. The negative ELD trial (P = 0.006 was associated with poor outcomes following shunt insertion. The positive ELD trial predicted shunt responsiveness in 96% patients (P < 0.0001, OR = 96.2, CI = 11.6-795.3. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis revealed that the ELD trial is reasonably accurate in differentiating shunt responder from non-responder in iNPH patients (area under curve = 0.8 ± 0.14, P = 0.02, CI = 0.52-1.0. The mean follow-up period was 12-months (range 0.3-3 years. The significant overall improvement after VPS was seen in 92% (55/60. The improvement was sustained in 76% of patients at mean 3-year follow-up. The number of comorbid conditions (P = 0.034, OR = 4.15, CI = 1.2-9.04, and a history of cerebrovascular accident (CVA (P = 0.035, OR = 4.4, CI = 1.9-14.6 were the predictors of poor outcome following shunt surgery. Conclusion: The positive ELD test predicted shunt responsiveness in 96% of patients. With adequate technique, maximal results with minimal

  8. The impact of p53 in predicting clinical outcome of breast cancer patients with visceral metastasis

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, P.; Du, C.W.; Kwan, M; Liang, S. X.; Zhang, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the study, we analyzed role of p53 in predicting outcome in visceral metastasis breast cancer (VMBC) patients. 97 consecutive VMBC patients were studied. P53 positivity rate was 29.9%. In the p53-negative group, median disease free survival (DFS), and time from primary breast cancer diagnosis to death (OS1), time from metastases to death (OS2) were 25, 42.5, and 13.5 months, respectively. In the p53-positive group, they were 10, 22, and 8 months, respectively. Statistically significant dif...

  9. Outcome measures based on classification performance fail to predict the intelligibility of binary-masked speech

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kressner, Abigail Anne; May, Tobias; Rozell, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    To date, the most commonly used outcome measure for assessing ideal binary mask estimation algorithms is based on the difference between the hit rate and the false alarm rate (H-FA). Recently, the error distribution has been shown to substantially affect intelligibility. However, H-FA treats each...... mask unit independently and does not take into account how errors are distributed. Alternatively, algorithms can be evaluated with the short-time objective intelligibility (STOI) metric using the reconstructed speech. This study investigates the ability of H-FA and STOI to predict intelligibility...

  10. Early Dynamics of P-selectin and Interleukin 6 Predicts Outcomes in Ischemic Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pusch, Gabriella; Debrabant, Birgit; Molnar, Tihamer;

    2015-01-01

    with acute ischemic stroke (6, 24, and 72 hours after onset); (2) compared with 44 patients with asymptomatic severe (≥70%) carotid stenosis and 66 patients with Parkinson disease; and (3) we applied multiple regression methods, relating biological biomarkers combined with demographic data and comorbidities......BACKGROUND: Thromboinflammatory molecules connect the prothrombotic state, endothelial dysfunction, and systemic/local inflammation in the acute phase of ischemic stroke. METHODS: We prospectively investigated (1) serial changes in the levels of thromboinflammatory biomarkers in 76 patients...... of death by 7%. CONCLUSIONS: In regression models, in which biological, demographic, and comorbid factors were combined, those biological biomarkers predicted poor outcome with high accuracy, which were characterized by an increasing concentration by 72 hours. Two particular biomarkers emerged to predict...

  11. Comparison of classification methods for voxel-based prediction of acute ischemic stroke outcome following intra-arterial intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winder, Anthony J.; Siemonsen, Susanne; Flottmann, Fabian; Fiehler, Jens; Forkert, Nils D.

    2017-03-01

    Voxel-based tissue outcome prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients is highly relevant for both clinical routine and research. Previous research has shown that features extracted from baseline multi-parametric MRI datasets have a high predictive value and can be used for the training of classifiers, which can generate tissue outcome predictions for both intravenous and conservative treatments. However, with the recent advent and popularization of intra-arterial thrombectomy treatment, novel research specifically addressing the utility of predictive classi- fiers for thrombectomy intervention is necessary for a holistic understanding of current stroke treatment options. The aim of this work was to develop three clinically viable tissue outcome prediction models using approximate nearest-neighbor, generalized linear model, and random decision forest approaches and to evaluate the accuracy of predicting tissue outcome after intra-arterial treatment. Therefore, the three machine learning models were trained, evaluated, and compared using datasets of 42 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with intra-arterial thrombectomy. Classifier training utilized eight voxel-based features extracted from baseline MRI datasets and five global features. Evaluation of classifier-based predictions was performed via comparison to the known tissue outcome, which was determined in follow-up imaging, using the Dice coefficient and leave-on-patient-out cross validation. The random decision forest prediction model led to the best tissue outcome predictions with a mean Dice coefficient of 0.37. The approximate nearest-neighbor and generalized linear model performed equally suboptimally with average Dice coefficients of 0.28 and 0.27 respectively, suggesting that both non-linearity and machine learning are desirable properties of a classifier well-suited to the intra-arterial tissue outcome prediction problem.

  12. Quality of life predicts outcome in a heart failure disease management program.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Loughlin, Christina

    2012-02-01

    BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with a poor Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). HRQoL has been shown to be a predictor of HF outcomes however, variability in the study designs make it difficult to apply these findings to a clinical setting. The aim of this study was to establish if HRQoL is a predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in HF patients followed-up in a disease management program (DMP) and if a HRQoL instrument could be applied to aid in identifying high-risk patients within a clinical context. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of HF patients attending a DMP with 18+\\/-9 months follow-up. Clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded on discharge from index HF admission and HRQoL measures were recorded at 2 weeks post index admission. RESULTS: 225 patients were enrolled into the study (mean age=69+\\/-12 years, male=61%, and 78%=systolic HF). In multivariable analysis, all dimensions of HRQoL (measured by the Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire) were independent predictors of both mortality and readmissions particularly in patients <80 years. A significant interaction between HRQoL and age (Total((HRQoL))age: p<0.001) indicated that the association of HRQoL with outcomes diminished as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that HRQoL is a predictor of outcome in HF patients managed in a DMP. Younger patients (<65 years) with a Total HRQoL score of > or =50 are at high risk of an adverse outcome. In older patients > or =80 years HRQoL is not useful in predicting outcome.

  13. A 14-year retrospective maternal report of alcohol consumption in pregnancy predicts pregnancy and teen outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannigan, John H; Chiodo, Lisa M; Sokol, Robert J; Janisse, James; Ager, Joel W; Greenwald, Mark K; Delaney-Black, Virginia

    2010-01-01

    Detecting patterns of maternal drinking that place fetuses at risk for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs) is critical to diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but is challenging because information on antenatal drinking collected during pregnancy is often insufficient or lacking. Although retrospective assessments have been considered less favored by many researchers due to presumed poor reliability, this perception may be inaccurate because of reduced maternal denial and/or distortion. The present study hypothesized that fetal alcohol exposure, as assessed retrospectively during child adolescence, would be related significantly to prior measures of maternal drinking and would predict alcohol-related behavioral problems in teens better than antenatal measures of maternal alcohol consumption. Drinking was assessed during pregnancy, and retrospectively about the same pregnancy, at a 14-year follow-up in 288 African-American women using well-validated semistructured interviews. Regression analysis examined the predictive validity of both drinking assessments on pregnancy outcomes and on teacher-reported teen behavior outcomes. Retrospective maternal self-reported drinking assessed 14 years postpartum was significantly higher than antenatal reports of consumption. Retrospective report identified 10.8 times more women as risk drinkers (≥ one drink per day) than the antenatal report. Antenatal and retrospective reports were moderately correlated and both were correlated with the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test. Self-reported alcohol consumption during pregnancy based on retrospective report identified significantly more teens exposed prenatally to at-risk alcohol levels than antenatal, in-pregnancy reports. Retrospective report predicted more teen behavior problems (e.g., attention problems and externalizing behaviors) than the antenatal report. Antenatal report predicted younger gestational age at birth and retrospective report predicted smaller birth size

  14. Validation that Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head-and-Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tang, Chad; Murphy, James D.; Khong, Brian; La, Trang H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Kong, Christina [Department of Pathology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Fischbein, Nancy J. [Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Colevas, A. Dimitrios [Division of Medical Oncology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Iagaru, Andrei H. [Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States); Le, Quynh-Thu, E-mail: qle@stanford.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: We have previously reported that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) obtained from pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxydeglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET)/ computed tomography (CT) predicted outcome in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). The purpose of this study was to validate these results on an independent dataset, determine whether the primary tumor or nodal MTV drives this correlation, and explore the interaction with p16{sup INK4a} status as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus (HPV). Methods and Materials: The validation dataset in this study included 83 patients with squamous cell HNC who had a FDG PET/CT scan before receiving definitive radiotherapy. MTV and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) were calculated for the primary tumor, the involved nodes, and the combination of both. The primary endpoint was to validate that MTV predicted progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary analyses included determining the prognostic utility of primary tumor vs. nodal MTV. Results: Similarly to our prior findings, an increase in total MTV of 17 cm{sup 3} (difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles) was associated with a 2.1-fold increase in the risk of disease progression (p = 0.0002) and a 2.0-fold increase in the risk of death (p = 0.0048). SUV{sub max} was not associated with either outcome. Primary tumor MTV predicted progression-free (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 1.57; p < 0.0001) survival, whereas nodal MTV did not. In addition, MTV predicted progression-free (HR = 4.23; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 3.21; p = 0.0029) survival in patients with p16{sup INK4a}-positive oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions: This study validates our previous findings that MTV independently predicts outcomes in HNC. MTV should be considered as a potential risk-stratifying biomarker in future studies of HNC.

  15. Predicting Outcome in Patients with Rhabdomyosarcoma: Role of [{sup 18}F]Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casey, Dana L. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Wexler, Leonard H. [Department of Pediatrics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Fox, Josef J. [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Dharmarajan, Kavita V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York (United States); Schoder, Heiko [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Price, Alison N. [Department of Pediatrics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Department of Surgery, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Wolden, Suzanne L., E-mail: woldens@mskcc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) response of the primary tumor after induction chemotherapy predicts outcomes in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). Methods and Materials: After excluding those with initial tumor resection, 107 patients who underwent FDG-PET after induction chemotherapy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center from 2002 to 2013 were reviewed. Local control (LC), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated according to FDG-PET response and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) at baseline (PET1/SUV1), after induction chemotherapy (PET2/SUV2), and after local therapy (PET3/SUV3). Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal cutoff for dichotomization of SUV1 and SUV2 values. Results: The SUV1 (<9.5 vs ≥9.5) was predictive of PFS (P=.02) and OS (P=.02), but not LC. After 12 weeks (median) of induction chemotherapy, 45 patients had negative PET2 scans and 62 had positive scans: 3-year PFS was 72% versus 44%, respectively (P=.01). The SUV2 (<1.5 vs ≥1.5) was similarly predictive of PFS (P=.005) and was associated with LC (P=.02) and OS (P=.03). A positive PET3 scan was predictive of worse PFS (P=.0009), LC (P=.05), and OS (P=.03). Conclusions: [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography is an early indicator of outcomes in patients with RMS. Future prospective trials may incorporate FDG-PET response data for risk-adapted therapy and early assessment of new treatment regimens.

  16. Hearing outcomes of vestibular schwannoma patients managed with 'wait and scan': predictive value of hearing level at diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stangerup, S-E; Tos, M; Thomsen, J;

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of both hearing level (at various frequencies) and speech discrimination for forecasting hearing outcome after a period of observation, in patients with vestibular schwannoma....

  17. Prediction of hearing outcomes by multiple regression analysis in patients with idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Hideaki; Tabata, Takahisa; Koizumi, Hiroki; Hohchi, Nobusuke; Takeuchi, Shoko; Kitamura, Takuro; Fujino, Yoshihisa; Ohbuchi, Toyoaki

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to create a multiple regression model for predicting hearing outcomes of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL). The participants were 205 consecutive patients (205 ears) with ISSNHL (hearing level ≥ 40 dB, interval between onset and treatment ≤ 30 days). They received systemic steroid administration combined with intratympanic steroid injection. Data were examined by simple and multiple regression analyses. Three hearing indices (percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and posttreatment hearing level [HLpost]) and 7 prognostic factors (age, days from onset to treatment, initial hearing level, initial hearing level at low frequencies, initial hearing level at high frequencies, presence of vertigo, and contralateral hearing level) were included in the multiple regression analysis as dependent and explanatory variables, respectively. In the simple regression analysis, the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost showed significant correlation with 2, 5, and 6 of the 7 prognostic factors, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients were 0.396, 0.503, and 0.714 for the percentage hearing improvement, hearing gain, and HLpost, respectively. Predicted values of HLpost calculated by the multiple regression equation were reliable with 70% probability with a 40-dB-width prediction interval. Prediction of HLpost by the multiple regression model may be useful to estimate the hearing prognosis of ISSNHL. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Fuzzy logic-based prognostic score for outcome prediction in esophageal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chang-Yu; Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Fang, Chun-Hsiung; Chou, Jyh-Horng

    2012-11-01

    Given the poor prognosis of esophageal cancer and the invasiveness of combined modality treatment, improved prognostic scoring systems are needed. We developed a fuzzy logic-based system to improve the predictive performance of a risk score based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin in a cohort of 271 patients with esophageal cancer before radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were employed to validate the independent prognostic value of the fuzzy risk score. To further compare the predictive performance of the fuzzy risk score with other prognostic scoring systems, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. Application of fuzzy logic to the serum values of CRP and albumin increased predictive performance for 1-year overall survival (AUC=0.773) compared with that of a single marker (AUC=0.743 and 0.700 for CRP and albumin, respectively), where the AUC denotes the area under curve. This fuzzy logic-based approach also performed consistently better than the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) (AUC=0.745). Thus, application of fuzzy logic to the analysis of serum markers can more accurately predict the outcome for patients with esophageal cancer.

  19. Molecular similarity-based predictions of the Tox21 screening outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malgorzata Natalia Drwal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess the toxicity of new chemicals and drugs, regulatory agencies require in vivo testing for many toxic endpoints, resulting in millions of animal experiments conducted each year. However, following the Replace, Reduce, Refine (3R principle, the development and optimization of alternative methods, in particular in silico methods, has been put into focus in the recent years. It is generally acknowledged that the more complex a toxic endpoint, the more difficult it is to model. Therefore, computational toxicology is shifting from modelling general and complex endpoints to the investigation and modelling of pathways of toxicity and the underlying molecular effects.The U.S. Toxicology in the 21st Century (Tox21 initiative has screened a large library of compounds, including approximately 10K environmental chemicals and drugs, for different mechanisms responsible for eliciting toxic effects, and made the results publicly available. Through the Tox21 Data Challenge, the consortium has established a platform for computational toxicologists to develop and validate their predictive models.Here, we present a fast and successful method for the prediction of different outcomes of the nuclear receptor and stress response pathway screening from the Tox21 Data Challenge 2014. The method is based on the combination of molecular similarity calculations and a naïve Bayes machine learning algorithm and has been implemented as a KNIME pipeline. Molecules are represented as binary vectors consisting of a concatenation of common two-dimensional molecular fingerprint types with topological compound properties. The prediction method has been optimized individually for each modelled target and evaluated in a cross-validation as well as with the independent Tox21 validation set. Our results show that the method can achieve good prediction accuracies and rank among the top algorithms submitted to the prediction challenge, indicating its broad applicability in

  20. Hearing outcomes of vestibular schwannoma patients managed with 'wait and scan': predictive value of hearing level at diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stangerup, S-E; Tos, M; Thomsen, J

    2010-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of both hearing level (at various frequencies) and speech discrimination for forecasting hearing outcome after a period of observation, in patients with vestibular schwannoma.......This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of both hearing level (at various frequencies) and speech discrimination for forecasting hearing outcome after a period of observation, in patients with vestibular schwannoma....

  1. Can FDG PET predict radiation treatment outcome in head and neck cancer? Results of a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schinagl, D.A.X.; Span, P.N.; Oyen, W.J.G.; Kaanders, J.H.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: In head and neck cancer (HNC) various treatment strategies have been developed to improve outcome, but selecting patients for these intensified treatments remains difficult. Therefore, identification of novel pretreatment assays to predict outcome is of interest. In HNC there are indication

  2. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury.

  3. Value of PCA3 to Predict Biopsy Outcome and Its Potential Role in Selecting Patients for Multiparametric MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leyten, G.H.J.M.; Wierenga, E.A.; Sedelaar, J.P.M.; Oort, I.M. van; Futterer, J.J.; Barentsz, J.O.; Schalken, J.A.; Mulders, P.F.A.

    2013-01-01

    PCA3 (prostate cancer gene 3) and multiparametric 3 tesla MRI are new promising diagnostic tools in the detection of PCa. Our aim was to study the clinical value of the Progensa PCA3-test: its predictive value for biopsy outcome, Gleason score and MRI outcome. We evaluated, retrospectively, 591 pati

  4. Outcome prediction in mild traumatic brain injury : age and clinical variables are stronger predictors than CT abnormalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, Bram; Beems, Tjemme; Stulemeijer, Maja; van Vugt, Arie B; van der Vliet, Ton M; Borm, George F; Vos, Pieter E

    2010-01-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is a common heterogeneous neurological disorder with a wide range of possible clinical outcomes. Accurate prediction of outcome is desirable for optimal treatment. This study aimed both to identify the demographic, clinical, and computed tomographic (CT) characteri

  5. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors.

  6. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms.

  7. Using behavioral theories of choice to predict drinking outcomes following a brief intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, James G; Correia, Christopher J; Colby, Suzanne M; Vuchinich, Rudy E

    2005-05-01

    Behavioral theories of choice predict that substance use is partly a function of the relative value of drugs in relation to other available reinforcers. This study evaluated this hypothesis in the context of predicting drinking outcomes following an alcohol abuse intervention. Participants (N = 54, 69% female, 31% male) were college student heavy drinkers who completed a single-session motivational intervention. Students completed a baseline measure of substance-related and substance-free activity participation and enjoyment. Only women showed a significant reduction in drinking at the 6-month follow-up, and the ratio of substance-related to substance-free reinforcement accounted for unique variance in their drinking outcomes. Women who at baseline derived a smaller proportion of their total reinforcement from substance use showed lower levels of follow-up drinking, even after the authors controlled for baseline drinking level. Male and female participants who reduced their drinking showed increased proportional reinforcement from substance-free activities. Copyright 2005 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Personality Pathology Predicts Outcomes in a Treatment-Seeking Sample with Bipolar I Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenze, Susan J.; Gaudiano, Brandon A.; Weinstock, Lauren M.; Miller, Ivan W.

    2014-01-01

    We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a clinical trial to explore the relationship between degree of personality disorder (PD) pathology (i.e., number of subthreshold and threshold PD symptoms) and mood and functioning outcomes in Bipolar I Disorder (BD-I). Ninety-two participants completed baseline mood and functioning assessments and then underwent 4 months of treatment for an index manic, mixed, or depressed phase acute episode. Additional assessments occurred over a 28-month follow-up period. PD pathology did not predict psychosocial functioning or manic symptoms at 4 or 28 months. However, it did predict depressive symptoms at both timepoints, as well as percent time symptomatic. Clusters A and C pathology were most strongly associated with depression. Our findings fit with the literature highlighting the negative repercussions of PD pathology on a range of outcomes in mood disorders. This study builds upon previous research, which has largely focused on major depression and which has primarily taken a categorical approach to examining PD pathology in BD. PMID:24516762

  9. Predictive Capability of Anorectal Physiologic Tests for Unfavorable Outcomes Following Biofeedback Therapy in Dyssynergic Defecation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jae Kook; Kim, Eun Sook; Yoon, Jin Young; Lee, Jin Ha; Jeon, Soung Min; Bok, Hyun Jung; Park, Jae Jun; Moon, Chang Mo; Hong, Sung Pil; Lee, Yong Chan; Kim, Won Ho

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive capability of anorectal physiologic tests for unfavorable outcomes prior to the initiation of biofeedback therapy in patients with dyssynergic defecation. We analyzed a total of 80 consecutive patients who received biofeedback therapy for chronic idiopathic functional constipation with dyssynergic defecation. After classifying the patients into two groups (responders and non-responders), univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the predictors associated with the responsiveness to biofeedback therapy. Of the 80 patients, 63 (78.7%) responded to biofeedback therapy and 17 (21.3%) did not. On univariate analysis, the inability to evacuate an intrarectal balloon (P=0.028), higher rectal volume for first, urgent, and maximal sensation (P=0.023, P=0.008, P=0.007, respectively), and increased anorectal angle during squeeze (P=0.020) were associated with poor outcomes. On multivariate analysis, the inability to evacuate an intrarectal balloon (P=0.018) and increased anorectal angle during squeeze (P=0.029) were both found to be independently associated with a lack of response to biofeedback therapy. Our data show that the two anorectal physiologic test factors are associated with poor response to biofeedback therapy for patients with dyssynergic defecation. These findings may assist physicians in predicting the responsiveness to therapy for this patient population. PMID:20592899

  10. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J.; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L.

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms. PMID:26579000

  11. Two pathways through adversity: Predicting well-being and housing outcomes among homeless service users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Zoe C; Jetten, Jolanda; Dingle, Genevieve A; Parsell, Cameron; Johnstone, Melissa

    2016-06-01

    People who experience homelessness face many challenges and disadvantages that negatively impact health and well-being and form barriers to achieving stable housing. Further, people who are homeless often have limited social connections and support. Building on previous research that has shown the beneficial effect of group identification on health and well-being, the current study explores the relationship between two social identity processes - multiple group memberships and service identification - and well-being and positive housing outcomes. Measures were collected from 76 participants while they were residing in a homeless accommodation service (T1) and again 2-4 weeks after leaving the service (or 3 months after T1 if participants had not left the service). Mediation analyses revealed that multiple group memberships and service identification at T1 independently predicted well-being at T2 indirectly, via social support. Further, both social identity processes also indirectly predicted housing outcomes via social support. The implications of these findings are twofold. First, while belonging to multiple social groups may provide a pathway to gaining social support and well-being, group belonging may not necessarily be beneficial to achieve stable housing. Second, fostering identification with homeless services may be particularly important as a source of support that contributes to well-being.

  12. Neuropsychological functions predict 1- and 3-year outcome in first-episode psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsson, R; Nyman, H; Ganse, G; Cullberg, J

    2006-02-01

    To examine neuropsychological performance as a possible predictor of course and outcome in first-episode psychotic (FEP) patients. A group of consecutive FEP patients (n = 120) tested with Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales-Revised (WAIS-R) at baseline was compared with a healthy group (n = 30) matched for age, education and gender. Relationship between WAIS-R and both Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and Global Assessment of Function (GAF) ratings were studied at baseline and at 1- and 3-year follow-ups. The performance of FEP patients was significantly lower (P WAIS-R subtests except for Information and Comprehension. The WAIS-R scores of patients with schizophrenia syndromes (DSM-IV) were lower than those of patients with non-schizophrenia syndromes on Block Design. Low WAIS-R Full-Scale IQ scores in FEP patients predicted the presence of negative symptoms at 1-year follow-up and of low GAF ratings at 3-year follow-up. Neurocognitive performance at admission appears to predict various aspects of functional outcome in FEP.

  13. Multiscale modeling and distributed computing to predict cosmesis outcome after a lumpectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbey, M.; Salmon, R.; Thanoon, D.; Bass, B. L.

    2013-07-01

    Surgery for early stage breast carcinoma is either total mastectomy (complete breast removal) or surgical lumpectomy (only tumor removal). The lumpectomy or partial mastectomy is intended to preserve a breast that satisfies the woman's cosmetic, emotional and physical needs. But in a fairly large number of cases the cosmetic outcome is not satisfactory. Today, predicting that surgery outcome is essentially based on heuristic. Modeling such a complex process must encompass multiple scales, in space from cells to tissue, as well as in time, from minutes for the tissue mechanics to months for healing. The goal of this paper is to present a first step in multiscale modeling of the long time scale prediction of breast shape after tumor resection. This task requires coupling very different mechanical and biological models with very different computing needs. We provide a simple illustration of the application of heterogeneous distributed computing and modular software design to speed up the model development. Our computational framework serves currently to test hypothesis on breast tissue healing in a pilot study with women who have been elected to undergo BCT and are being treated at the Methodist Hospital in Houston, TX.

  14. Virologic testing in bronchiolitis: does it change management decisions and predict outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stollar, Fabiola; Alcoba, Gabriel; Gervaix, Alain; Argiroffo, Constance Barazzone

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical, therapeutic, laboratory, and radiological differences between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and non-RSV bronchiolitis in order to assess if the prior knowledge of viral etiology changed management decisions and would be able to predict outcomes. Medical charts of children <1 year admitted to the emergency department with bronchiolitis during two RSV seasons (2010-2012) were reviewed. We analyzed 221 episodes of bronchiolitis. The percentage of exams performed (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.74-2.52), abnormal laboratory and radiological findings (95 % CI 0.53-16.89) did not differ between groups. RSV bronchiolitis had a more severe clinical course. However, virologic testing for RSV had low specificity in identifying at-risk patients for hospitalization, longer hospital length of stay, and need of oxygen therapy and nasogastric tube (44, 40, 42, and 35 %, respectively), and while statistically significant, the positive likelihood ratios were only slightly greater than 1. Although RSV bronchiolitis has a more severe clinical course, virologic testing does not help in management decisions, and at an individual level, as a performance test, it seems insufficient to precisely predict outcomes.

  15. Gene panel model predictive of outcome in patients with prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabiau, Nadège; Dantal, Yann; Guy, Laurent; Ngollo, Marjolaine; Dagdemir, Aslihan; Kemeny, Jean-Louis; Terris, Benoît; Vieillefond, Annick; Boiteux, Jean-Paul; Bignon, Yves-Jean; Bernard-Gallon, Dominique

    2013-08-01

    In men at high risk for prostate cancer, established clinical and pathological parameters provide only limited prognostic information. Here we analyzed a French cohort of 103 prostate cancer patients and developed a gene panel model predictive of outcome in this group of patients. The model comprised of a 15-gene TaqMan Low-Density Array (TLDA) card, with gene expressions compared to a standardized reference. The RQ value for each gene was calculated, and a scoring system was developed. Summing all the binary scores (0 or 1) corresponding to the 15 genes, a global score is obtained between 0 and 15. This global score can be compared to Gleason score (0 to 10) by recalculating it into a 0-10 scaled score. A scaled score ≥2 suggested that the patient is suffering from a prostate cancer, and a scaled score ≥7 flagged aggressive cancer. Statistical analyses demonstrated a strongly significant linear correlation (p=3.50E-08) between scaled score and Gleason score for this prostate cancer cohort (N=103). These results support the capacity of this designed 15 target gene TLDA card approach to predict outcome in prostate cancer, opening up a new avenue for personalized medicine through future independent replication and applications for rapid identification of aggressive prostate cancer phenotypes for early intervention.

  16. Parent-Child Math Anxiety and Math-Gender Stereotypes Predict Adolescents’ Math Education Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina J Casad

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents’ math anxiety including parents’ own math anxiety and children’s endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent’s math anxiety interacts with daughters’ and sons’ anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children’s math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA. Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and for boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents’ math anxiety in the effects of children’s math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents’ math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms.

  17. Knee shape might predict clinical outcome after an anterior cruciate ligament rupture.

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    Eggerding, V; van Kuijk, K S R; van Meer, B L; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M A; van Arkel, E R A; Reijman, M; Waarsing, J H; Meuffels, D E

    2014-06-01

    We have investigated whether shape of the knee can predict the clinical outcome of patients after an anterior cruciate ligament rupture. We used statistical shape modelling to measure the shape of the knee joint of 182 prospectively followed patients on lateral and Rosenberg view radiographs of the knee after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament. Subsequently, we associated knee shape with the International Knee Documentation Committee subjective score at two years follow-up. The mean age of patients was 31 years (21 to 51), the majority were male (n = 121) and treated operatively (n = 135). We found two modes (shape variations) that were significantly associated with the subjective score at two years: one for the operatively treated group (p = 0.002) and one for the non-operatively treated group (p = 0.003). Operatively treated patients who had higher subjective scores had a smaller intercondylar notch and a smaller width of the intercondylar eminence. Non-operatively treated patients who scored higher on the subjective score had a more pyramidal intercondylar notch as opposed to one that was more dome-shaped. We conclude that the shape of the femoral notch and the intercondylar eminence is predictive of clinical outcome two years after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament.

  18. Outcome of Patients Underwent Emergency Department Thoracotomy and Its Predictive Factors

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    Shahram Paydar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Emergency department thoracotomy (EDT may serve as the last survival chance for patients who arrive at hospital in extremis. It is considered as an effective tool for improvement of traumatic patients’ outcome. The present study was done with the goal of assessing the outcome of patients who underwent EDT and its predictive factors. Methods: In the present study, medical charts of 50 retrospective and 8 prospective cases underwent emergency department thoracotomy (EDT were reviewed during November 2011 to June 2013. Comparisons between survived and died patients were performed by Mann-Whitney U test and the predictive factors of EDT outcome were measured using multivariate logistic regression analysis. P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: Fifty eight cases of EDT were enrolled (86.2% male. The mean age of patients was 43.27±19.85 years with the range of 18-85. The mean time duration of CPR was recorded as 37.12±12.49 minutes. Eleven cases (19% were alive to be transported to OR (defined as ED survived. The mean time of survival in ED survived patients was 223.5±450.8 hours. More than 24 hours survival rate (late survived was 6.9% (4 cases. Only one case (1.7% survived to discharge from hospital (mortality rate=98.3%. There were only a significant relation between ED survival and SBP, GCS, CPR duration, and chest trauma (p=0.04. The results demonstrated that initial SBP lower than 80 mmHg (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.001-1.05, p=0.04 and presence of chest trauma (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.75-3.16, p=0.02 were independent predictive factors of EDT mortality. Conclusion: The findings of the present study showed that the survival rate of trauma patients underwent EDT was 1.7%. In addition, it was defined that falling systolic blood pressure below 80 mmHg and blunt trauma of chest are independent factors that along with poor outcome.

  19. Prediction of Bladder Outcomes after Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

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    Chiara Pavese

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Neurogenic bladder dysfunction represents one of the most common and devastating sequelae of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI. As early prediction of bladder outcomes is essential to counsel patients and to plan neurourological management, we aimed to develop and validate a model to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI.Using multivariate logistic regression analysis from the data of 1,250 patients with traumatic SCI included in the European Multicenter Spinal Cord Injury study, we developed two prediction models of urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI and performed an external validation in 111 patients. As predictors, we evaluated age, gender, and all variables of the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI and of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM. Urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after SCI were assessed through item 6 of SCIM. The full model relies on lower extremity motor score (LEMS, light-touch sensation in the S3 dermatome of ISNCSI, and SCIM subscale respiration and sphincter management: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (aROC was 0.936 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.922-0.951. The simplified model is based on LEMS only: the aROC was 0.912 (95% CI: 0.895-0.930. External validation of the full and simplified models confirmed the excellent predictive power: the aROCs were 0.965 (95% CI: 0.934-0.996 and 0.972 (95% CI 0.943-0.999, respectively. This study is limited by the substantial number of patients with a missing 1-y outcome and by differences between derivation and validation cohort.Our study provides two simple and reliable models to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Early prediction of bladder function might optimize counselling and patient-tailored rehabilitative interventions and improve patient

  20. Prediction of Bladder Outcomes after Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavese, Chiara; Schneider, Marc P.; Schubert, Martin; Curt, Armin; Scivoletto, Giorgio; Finazzi-Agrò, Enrico; Mehnert, Ulrich; Abel, Rainer; Röhrich, Frank; Weidner, Norbert; Rupp, Rüdiger; Kessels, Alfons G.; Bachmann, Lucas M.; Kessler, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Neurogenic bladder dysfunction represents one of the most common and devastating sequelae of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). As early prediction of bladder outcomes is essential to counsel patients and to plan neurourological management, we aimed to develop and validate a model to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Methods and Findings Using multivariate logistic regression analysis from the data of 1,250 patients with traumatic SCI included in the European Multicenter Spinal Cord Injury study, we developed two prediction models of urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI and performed an external validation in 111 patients. As predictors, we evaluated age, gender, and all variables of the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) and of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM). Urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after SCI were assessed through item 6 of SCIM. The full model relies on lower extremity motor score (LEMS), light-touch sensation in the S3 dermatome of ISNCSI, and SCIM subscale respiration and sphincter management: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (aROC) was 0.936 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.922–0.951). The simplified model is based on LEMS only: the aROC was 0.912 (95% CI: 0.895–0.930). External validation of the full and simplified models confirmed the excellent predictive power: the aROCs were 0.965 (95% CI: 0.934–0.996) and 0.972 (95% CI 0.943–0.999), respectively. This study is limited by the substantial number of patients with a missing 1-y outcome and by differences between derivation and validation cohort. Conclusions Our study provides two simple and reliable models to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Early prediction of bladder function might optimize counselling and patient-tailored rehabilitative

  1. Couples' agreement on presenting problems predicts engagement and outcomes in problem-focused couple therapy.

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    Biesen, Judith N; Doss, Brian D

    2013-08-01

    This study investigated the impact of couples' agreement regarding relationship problems at therapy intake on subsequent treatment engagement and success. One hundred and 47 couples seeking marital therapy at one of two Veteran Administration Medical Centers completed questionnaires assessing relationship satisfaction and were asked to indicate their three biggest relationship concerns. Agreement on relationship concern was defined as one person's list containing the partner's top relationship problem. Pretreatment agreement on relationship problems was unrelated to treatment course or outcomes when the therapy was longer and more integrative in nature. However, when couples received a brief, problem-focused treatment, agreement predicted greater engagement in therapy process and more positive treatment outcomes. Specifically, couples who were in agreement were more likely to attend the minimum number of required sessions and were more likely to be assessed as having received a full course of therapy by their treatment provider. Additionally, partners who agreed with each other were more likely to experience clinically significant changes during treatment. Taken together, results suggest that therapists and researchers should consider assessing agreement on relationship problems at the beginning of treatment and potentially suggest that couples who perceive their relationship differently should receive more integrative treatment. Future research is needed to examine the most effective sequencing for addressing differing, presenting problems as well as the mechanisms through which disagreement on presenting problems impacts treatment course and outcomes.

  2. Factors for Predicting Favorable Outcome of Percutaneous Epidural Adhesiolysis for Lumbar Disc Herniation

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    Sang Ho Moon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Lower back pain is a common reason for disability and the most common cause is lumbar disc herniation. Percutaneous epidural adhesiolysis has been applied to relieve pain and increase the functional capacity of patients who present this condition. Objectives. In this study, we retrospectively evaluated the factors which predict the outcome of percutaneous epidural adhesiolysis in patients who were diagnosed with lumbar disc herniation. Methods. Electronic medical records of patients diagnosed with lumbar disc herniation who have received percutaneous epidural adhesiolysis treatment were reviewed. The primary outcome was the factors that were associated with substantial response of ≥4 points or ≥50% of pain relief in the numerical rating scale pain score 12 months after the treatment. Results. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the presence of high-intensity zone (HIZ at magnetic resonance imaging was a predictor of substantial response to percutaneous epidural adhesiolysis for 12 months (P=0.007. The presence of a condition involving the vertebral foramen was a predictor for unsuccessful response after 12 months (P=0.02. Discussion and Conclusion. The presence of HIZ was a predictor of favorable long-term outcome after percutaneous epidural adhesiolysis for the treatment of lower back pain with radicular pain caused by lumbar disc herniation.

  3. The admission systemic inflammatory response syndrome predicts outcome in patients undergoing emergency surgery.

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    Chao, Anne; Chou, Wei-Han; Chang, Chee-Jen; Lin, Yu-Jr; Fan, Shou-Zen; Chao, An-Shine

    2013-07-01

    To investigate the incidence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) on emergency department admission and the prognostic significance of SIRS in patients undergoing emergency surgery. This is a retrospective study of 889 adults who were admitted as emergency cases and were operated on within 24 hours of admission. Data on patient demography, clinical information including comorbidities, categories of surgery, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, SIRS score, postoperative outcomes including duration of mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital lengths of stay, and mortality were collected. SIRS occurred in 43% of the patients and was associated with a significantly worse outcome in terms of duration of ventilator use (10.5 ± 15.4 vs. 3.5 ± 4.4 days, p surgery categories), SIRS was independently associated with higher mortality (adjusted odd ratio, 21.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 4.9-93.2), longer ventilator duration (adjusted coefficient, 7.8; 95% CI, 3.2-12.5), longer ICU stay (adjusted coefficient, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.6-9.8) and longer hospital stay (adjusted coefficient, 9.7; 95% CI, 7.5-11.9). The presence of SIRS at admission in patients receiving emergency surgery predicted worse outcomes and higher mortality rates. Copyright © 2013, Asian Surgical Association. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive value of sequential electroencephalogram (EEG) in neonates with seizures and its relation to neurological outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Richard Lester; Nunes, Magda Lahorgue; Garcias da Silva, Luis Fernando; da Costa, Jaderson Costa

    2008-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of sequential neonatal electroencephalography (EEG) and neurological outcome in neonates with seizures to identify polysomnographic features predictive of outcome. Sequential EEGs recordings of 58 neonates that belonged to 2 historical cohorts of newborns with seizures from the same neonatal intensive care unit and who had follow-up at the Neurodevelopment Clinic of the Hospital São Lucas, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS) in Porto Alegre, Brazil, were analyzed and classified into 4 groups: normal-normal, abnormal-normal, abnormal-abnormal, normal-abnormal. In patients with more than 2 recordings, during the neonatal period, the first EEG was compared with the following more abnormal. A total of 58 pairs of 2 sequential EEGs were analyzed. Considering the first EEG, a statistically significant difference was observed between the relationship of the result of this exam, if it was abnormal, with developmental delay (P = .030) and postnatal death (P = .030). Abnormal background activity was also related to neurodevelopment delay (P = .041). EEG sequences abnormal-abnormal and normal-abnormal significantly correlated to the outcome epilepsy ( P = .015). Abnormal sequential background activity was associated with neurodevelopment delay (P = .006) and epilepsy (P = .041). The burst suppression pattern when present in any EEG correlated with epilepsy (P = .013) and postnatal death (P = .034). Sequential abnormal background patterns in the first and second EEG increased the risk for epilepsy (relative risk [RR] = 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-3.0) and neurodevelopment delay (RR = 2.20; 95% CI = 1.3-3.0). Abnormal background activity only in the second electroencephalogram increased the risk for neurodevelopment delay (RR = 2.20; 95% CI = 1.3-3.0). All the neonates (n = 33) with seizures related to probable hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy had abnormalities in the first EEG (P

  5. Diagnostic evaluation of uterine artery Doppler sonography for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes

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    Mojgan Barati

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Increased impedance to flow in the uterine arteries assessed by value of the Doppler is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, especially pre-eclampsia. We investigated the predictive value of a uterine artery Doppler in the identification of adverse pregnancy outcomes such as ′pre-eclampsia′ and ′small fetus for gestational age′ (SGA. Materials and Methods: Three hundred and seventy-nine women, with singleton pregnancy, between 18 and 40 years of age, without risk factors, randomly underwent Doppler interrogation of the uterine arteries, between 16-22 weeks of gestation. Those who had a mean pulsatility index (PI of >1.45 were considered to have an abnormal result, and were evaluated and compared with those who had normal results for adverse pregnancy outcomes, including pre-eclampsia and small for gestational age. The relationship between the variables was assessed with the use of the chi-square test. Results : There were 17 cases (4.5% of abnormal uterine artery Doppler results and 15 of them (88.2% developed pre-eclampsia and four cases (23.5% had neonates small for gestational age. For predicting pre-eclampsia, the mean uterine artery PI had to be >1.45, had to have a specificity of 95.5% (95% CI, 70-92%, a sensitivity of 79% (95% CI, 43-82%, a negative predictive value (NPV of 98.9% (95% CI, 72-96%, and a positive predictive value (PPV of 88.2% (95% CI, 68-98%. In the case of ′small for gestational age′ it had to have a specificity of 96.5% (95% CI, 42-68%, a sensitivity of 57% (95% CI, 53-76%, an NPV of 99.2% (95% CI, 70-92%, and a PPV of 23.5% (95% CI, 30-72%. Conclusion : Uterine artery Doppler evaluation at 16-22 weeks of gestation might be an appropriate tool for identifying pregnancies that may be at an increased risk for development of pre-eclampsia and small fetus for gestational age.

  6. Sputum biomarkers and the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with cystic fibrosis.

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    Theodore G Liou

    Full Text Available Lung function, acute pulmonary exacerbations (APE, and weight are the best clinical predictors of survival in cystic fibrosis (CF; however, underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Biomarkers of current disease state predictive of future outcomes might identify mechanisms and provide treatment targets, trial endpoints and objective clinical monitoring tools. Such CF-specific biomarkers have previously been elusive. Using observational and validation cohorts comprising 97 non-transplanted consecutively-recruited adult CF patients at the Intermountain Adult CF Center, University of Utah, we identified biomarkers informative of current disease and predictive of future clinical outcomes. Patients represented the majority of sputum producers. They were recruited March 2004-April 2007 and followed through May 2011. Sputum biomarker concentrations were measured and clinical outcomes meticulously recorded for a median 5.9 (interquartile range 5.0 to 6.6 years to study associations between biomarkers and future APE and time-to-lung transplantation or death. After multivariate modeling, only high mobility group box-1 protein (HMGB-1, mean=5.84 [log ng/ml], standard deviation [SD] =1.75 predicted time-to-first APE (hazard ratio [HR] per log-unit HMGB-1=1.56, p-value=0.005, number of future APE within 5 years (0.338 APE per log-unit HMGB-1, p<0.001 by quasi-Poisson regression and time-to-lung transplantation or death (HR=1.59, p=0.02. At APE onset, sputum granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF, mean 4.8 [log pg/ml], SD=1.26 was significantly associated with APE-associated declines in lung function (-10.8 FEV(1% points per log-unit GM-CSF, p<0.001 by linear regression. Evaluation of validation cohorts produced similar results that passed tests of mutual consistency. In CF sputum, high HMGB-1 predicts incidence and recurrence of APE and survival, plausibly because it mediates long-term airway inflammation. High APE-associated GM

  7. Self-responsibility predicts the successful outcome of coronary artery bypass surgery

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    C. J. Eales

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study was designed to determine whetherthe acceptance of self-responsibility is an important determinant of the successful outcome of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery. The success of this costly intervention may be limited unless patients understand and adhere to the prescribed medical regimen, including diet and exercise after surgery. Patients suffering from chronic diseases must take charge of their own health and not abrogate that responsibility to the care providers.Method: Questionnaires were designed to determine aspects of improved quality of life and self-responsibility. For the study, 73 patients who had undergone CABG surgery were selected from surgical patients in the private as well as the public sector. In order to assess the acceptance of self-responsibility, the spouses/care-givers of the patients were included in the study. Patients were interviewed during the first few days after the operation when they had returned to the wards and again six months and 12 months later. Successful outcome was measured in terms of improved quality of life using the criteria suggested by the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (Coronary Artery Surgical Study PrincipalInvestigators, 1983. The acceptance of self-responsibility was then investigated as a possible factor influencing the improvement of the quality of life of these patients.Results: The acceptance of self-responsibility was a significant factor predicting the successful outcome of CABG surgery in the group of patients who achieved an improved quality of life following surgery (p<0.01. From the results of this study, a profile of South African patients with improved quality of life was identified. They are: Men, married, annual income > R50 000 (US $8 000, who had a normal sex-life prior to the operation.  They differ significantly from the group without an improved quality of life in the following aspects: they spend more hours participating in sport at school (p=0

  8. The use of blood biomarkers to predict poor outcome after acute transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke.

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    Whiteley, William; Wardlaw, Joanna; Dennis, Martin; Lowe, Gordon; Rumley, Ann; Sattar, Naveed; Welsh, Paul; Green, Alison; Andrews, Mary; Sandercock, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The prediction of death or disability ("poor outcome") after stroke by validated clinical models might be improved by the addition of blood biomarker measurements. We investigated whether such measurements improved the classification of patients into 4 categories of predicted risk of poor outcome: very high, intermediate high, intermediate low, and very low. We prospectively recruited symptomatic patients within 24 hours of ischemic cerebrovascular events. We measured clinical prognostic variables in each patient. We drew blood soon after admission and measured markers of inflammation, thrombosis, cardiac strain, and cerebral damage. We assessed poor outcome at 3 months with the modified Rankin Scale and recovery of symptoms at 24 hours. We measured the association between blood marker levels and poor outcome after adjustment for stroke severity and age with multivariate logistic regression. Where these associations were statistically significant, we calculated the net reclassification index. We recruited 270 patients with acute ischemic cerebrovascular events. At 3 months, 112 patients had a poor outcome. After adjustment for stroke severity and age, only interleukin-6 and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide were significantly associated with poor outcome. The addition of either interleukin-6 or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide to National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and age did not improve the prediction of a poor outcome. Neither interleukin-6 nor N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide had sufficient predictive power to be of clinical use to predict poor outcome after stroke. The search for better markers to improve the classification of patients across clinically relevant boundaries of predicted probabilities of outcome events needs to continue.

  9. Intragraft pressures predict outcomes in hemodialysis patients with graft outflow lesions undergoing percutaneous transluminal angioplasty.

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    Lai, Chi-Cheng; Chung, Hsiao-Min; Tsai, Han-Lin; Mar, Guang-Yuan; Tseng, Ching-Jiunn; Liu, Chun-Peng

    2010-08-01

    This study is to introduce intragraft pressure (IGP) as intraprocedural parameter for outcome survey in hemodialysis patients with graft outflow lesions undergoing percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA). The role of IGP on procedural endpoint and patency is unknown. Seventy-five participants with graft outflow lesions receiving PTA were enrolled. Procedural data regarding IGP and angiographic findings were collected and the 1-year graft patency through collaboration with hemodialysis units. Analyses and comparisons among IGP, angiographic findings, and patency were conducted. Using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we intended to detect significance and the cut-off points of IGP for patency prediction, and difference in patency between the two groups divided by using the cut-off points. Pre-PTA and post-PTA IGP were significantly associated with 1-year patency (both significance IGP were closer to 106 and 47 mm Hg for prediction of 1-year patency (sensitivity = 0.76, specificity = 0.69; sensitivity = 0.79, specificity = 0.69, respectively; 95% CI). Significant reductions in 1-year patency were shown in the subjects with greater than the cut-off values, either pre-PTA or post-PTA IGP, compared with those with smaller than these values (both log rank test IGP might be useful to evaluate procedural endpoints and predict patency outcomes in hemodialysis patients with graft outflow lesions undergoing PTA. Patients with the greater pre-PTA or post-PTA IGP, to some level, seem to have the shorter patency. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  10. Role of postprandial bile acids in prediction of perinatal outcome in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy.

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    Sargın Oruç, Ayla; Seçkin, Berna; Özcan, Nagihan; Özyer, Sebnem; Uzunlar, Özlem; Danışman, Nuri

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the role of fasting and postprandial total bile acids (fTBA, ppTBA) in prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes in intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP). A total of 111 patients, 57 with ICP and 54 controls, were evaluated for preterm birth (PTB), meconium-stained amnion (MSA), neonatal intensive-care unit admission and asphyxia. We further classified the ICP group as mild and severe. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the associated biochemical and clinical parameters with adverse perinatal outcomes. In the ICP group, PTB, asphyxia, admission to neonatal intensive-care unit, and MSA were more frequently observed (P = 0.001, P = 0.027, P = 0.006 and P = 0.030, respectively). In subgroup analysis, PTB was more frequent in severe ICP cases than in mild cases (P = 0.028). Fasting and ppTBA were positively correlated with serum aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase levels. Postprandial TBA and difference between fasting and postprandial TBA levels were associated with asphyxia (P = 0.014 and P = 0.023, respectively). Gestational age at diagnosis and fTBA were associated with adverse perinatal outcomes (P = 0.001 and P = 0.025, respectively). Postprandial TBA and difference of fasting and postprandial TBA are associated with asphyxia in ICP. The gestational age at diagnosis and fTBA are associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  11. Hyperdense basilar artery sign diagnoses acute posterior circulation stroke and predicts short-term outcome

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    Tan, Xiaoping [Affiliated Hospital of China Medical University at Shenyang, Department of Neurology, Shengjing Hospital, Shenyang (China); Guo, Yang [Shengjing Hospital, Department of Neurology, Shenyang (China)

    2010-12-15

    It is well established that the hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign is a specific marker for early ischemia in anterior circulation. However, little is known about the hyperdense basilar artery sign (HDBA) in posterior circulation. Our aim was to determine whether the HDBA sign has utility in early diagnosis of acute posterior circulation stroke and prediction of short-term outcome. Three-blinded readers examined unenhanced computed tomography scans for the HDBA sign, and materials were classified into two groups according to this sign. Vascular risk factors, admission and discharge National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, short-term outcome, and radiological findings between the two groups were compared. One hundred and twenty-six cases of acute posterior circulation stroke (PCS) were included in the study. No statistically significant differences were found in risk factors of ischemic stroke, except atrial fibrillation (P = 0.025). Admission and discharge NIHSS scores for the positive HDBA group were significantly higher than scores for the negative HDBA group (P = 0.001, 0.002, respectively). The infarction territory for the positive HDBA group was mainly multi-region in nature (51.6%, P < 0.001), while the negative HDBA group showed mainly middle territory infarction. Significant independent predictors of short-term outcome included the HDBA sign (P < 0.001) and admission NIHSS scores (P < 0.001). Approximately half of the HDBA patients showed multi-region infarction and a serious neurological symptom. Based on our results, this sign might not only be helpful in early diagnosis of acute PCS but also be able to correlate with a poor short-term outcome. (orig.)

  12. Comparing frailty measures in their ability to predict adverse outcome among older residents of assisted living

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    Hogan David B

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Few studies have directly compared the competing approaches to identifying frailty in more vulnerable older populations. We examined the ability of two versions of a frailty index (43 vs. 83 items, the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS frailty criteria, and the CHESS scale to accurately predict the occurrence of three outcomes among Assisted Living (AL residents followed over one year. Methods The three frailty measures and the CHESS scale were derived from assessment items completed among 1,066 AL residents (aged 65+ participating in the Alberta Continuing Care Epidemiological Studies (ACCES. Adjusted risks of one-year mortality, hospitalization and long-term care placement were estimated for those categorized as frail or pre-frail compared with non-frail (or at high/intermediate vs. low risk on CHESS. The area under the ROC curve (AUC was calculated for select models to assess the predictive accuracy of the different frailty measures and CHESS scale in relation to the three outcomes examined. Results Frail subjects defined by the three approaches and those at high risk for decline on CHESS showed a statistically significant increased risk for death and long-term care placement compared with those categorized as either not frail or at low risk for decline. The risk estimates for hospitalization associated with the frailty measures and CHESS were generally weaker with one of the frailty indices (43 items showing no significant association. For death and long-term care placement, the addition of frailty (however derived or CHESS significantly improved on the AUC obtained with a model including only age, sex and co-morbidity, though the magnitude of improvement was sometimes small. The different frailty/risk models did not differ significantly from each other in predicting mortality or hospitalization; however, one of the frailty indices (83 items showed significantly better performance over the other measures in predicting long

  13. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsushita, K.; Coresh, J.; Sang, Y.; Chalmers, J.; Fox, C.; Guallar, E.; Jafar, T.; Jassal, S.K.; Landman, G.W.; Muntner, P.; Roderick, P.; Sairenchi, T.; Schottker, B.; Shankar, A.; Shlipak, M.; Tonelli, M.; Townend, J.; Zuilen, A. van; Yamagishi, K.; Yamashita, K.; Gansevoort, R.; Sarnak, M.; Warnock, D.G.; Woodward, M.; Arnlov, J.; Wetzels, J.F.M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a

  14. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes : a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Sang, Yingying; Chalmers, John; Fox, Caroline; Guallar, Eliseo; Jafar, Tazeen; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Landman, Gijs W. D.; Muntner, Paul; Roderick, Paul; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Schoettker, Ben; Shankar, Anoop; Shlipak, Michael; Tonelli, Marcello; Townend, Jonathan; van Zuilen, Arjan; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yamashita, Kentaro; Gansevoort, Ron; Sarnak, Mark; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; Arnlov, Johan; de Zeeuw, Dick

    Background The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a

  15. A Study of the Predictive Relationships between Faculty Engagement, Learner Satisfaction and Outcomes in Multiple Learning Delivery Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Cherng-Jyh; Abdous, M'hammed

    2012-01-01

    This study assessed the predictive relationships between faculty engagement, learner satisfaction, and outcomes across multiple learning delivery modes (LDMs). Participants were enrolled in courses with the options of three learning delivery modes: face-to-face, satellite broadcasting, and live video-streaming. The predictive relationship between…

  16. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes : a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsushita, Kunihiro; Coresh, Josef; Sang, Yingying; Chalmers, John; Fox, Caroline; Guallar, Eliseo; Jafar, Tazeen; Jassal, Simerjot K.; Landman, Gijs W. D.; Muntner, Paul; Roderick, Paul; Sairenchi, Toshimi; Schoettker, Ben; Shankar, Anoop; Shlipak, Michael; Tonelli, Marcello; Townend, Jonathan; van Zuilen, Arjan; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yamashita, Kentaro; Gansevoort, Ron; Sarnak, Mark; Warnock, David G.; Woodward, Mark; Arnlov, Johan; de Zeeuw, Dick

    2015-01-01

    Background The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a meta-

  17. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsushita, K.; Coresh, J.; Sang, Y.; Chalmers, J.; Fox, C.; Guallar, E.; Jafar, T.; Jassal, S.K.; Landman, G.W.; Muntner, P.; Roderick, P.; Sairenchi, T.; Schottker, B.; Shankar, A.; Shlipak, M.; Tonelli, M.; Townend, J.; Zuilen, A. van; Yamagishi, K.; Yamashita, K.; Gansevoort, R.; Sarnak, M.; Warnock, D.G.; Woodward, M.; Arnlov, J.; Wetzels, J.F.M.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The usefulness of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria for prediction of cardiovascular outcomes is controversial. We aimed to assess the addition of creatinine-based eGFR and albuminuria to traditional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular risk with a meta

  18. Cytokine Profiles during Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease Predict Outcome in African Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilchrist, James J.; Heath, Jennifer N.; Msefula, Chisomo L.; Gondwe, Esther N.; Naranbhai, Vivek; Mandala, Wilson; MacLennan, Jenny M.; Molyneux, Elizabeth M.; Graham, Stephen M.; Drayson, Mark T.; Molyneux, Malcolm E.

    2016-01-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of sepsis in African children. Cytokine responses are central to the pathophysiology of sepsis and predict sepsis outcome in other settings. In this study, we investigated cytokine responses to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Malawian children. We determined serum concentrations of 48 cytokines with multiplexed immunoassays in Malawian children during acute iNTS disease (n = 111) and in convalescence (n = 77). Principal component analysis and logistic regression were used to identify cytokine signatures of acute iNTS disease. We further investigated whether these responses are altered by HIV coinfection or severe malnutrition and whether cytokine responses predict inpatient mortality. Cytokine changes in acute iNTS disease were associated with two distinct cytokine signatures. The first is characterized by increased concentrations of mediators known to be associated with macrophage function, and the second is characterized by raised pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines typical of responses reported in sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens. These cytokine responses were largely unaltered by either severe malnutrition or HIV coinfection. Children with fatal disease had a distinctive cytokine profile, characterized by raised mediators known to be associated with neutrophil function. In conclusion, cytokine responses to acute iNTS infection in Malawian children are reflective of both the cytokine storm typical of sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens and the intramacrophage replicative niche of NTS. The cytokine profile predictive of fatal disease supports a key role of neutrophils in the pathogenesis of NTS sepsis. PMID:27170644

  19. Prediction of rate and severity of adverse perioperative outcomes: "normal accidents" revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saubermann, Albert J; Lagasse, Robert S

    2012-01-01

    The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification system has been shown to predict the frequency of perioperative morbidity and mortality despite known subjectivity, inconsistent application, and exclusion of many perioperative confounding variables. The authors examined the relationship between the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status and both the frequency and the severity of adverse events over a 10-year period in an academic anesthesiology practice. The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status is predictive of not only the frequency of adverse perioperative events, but also the severity of adverse events. These nonlinear mathematical relationships can provide meaningful information on performance and risk. Calculated odds ratios allow discussion about individualized anesthesia risks based on the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status because the added complexity of the surgical or diagnostic procedure, and other perioperative confounding variables, is indirectly factored into the Physical Status classification. The ability of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status to predict adverse outcome frequency and severity in a nonlinear relationship can be fully explained by applying the Normal Accident Theory, a well-known theory of system failure that relates the interactive complexity of system components to the frequency and the severity of system failures or adverse events.

  20. Predictive Factors in OCT Analysis for Visual Outcome in Exudative AMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Andreea Gamulescu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Reliable predictive factors for therapy outcome may enable treating physicians to counsel their patients more efficiently concerning probability of improvement or time point of discontinuation of a certain therapy. Methods. This is a retrospective analysis of 87 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration who received three monthly intravitreal ranibizumab injections. Visual acuity before initiation of intravitreal therapy and 4–6 weeks after last intravitreal injection was compared and related to the preoperative visualisation of continuity of the outer retinal layers as assessed by OCT: external limiting membrane (ELM, inner photoreceptor segments (IPS, junction between inner and outer segments (IS/OS, and outer photoreceptor segments (OPS. Results. Visual acuity increased in 40 of 87 (46.0% patients, it remained stable in 25 (28.7%, and 22 (25.3% patients had decreased visual acuity four to six weeks after triple intravitreal ranibizumab injections. No statistically significant predictive value could be demonstrated for grade of continuity of outer retinal layers concerning visual acuity development. Conclusions. In our series of AMD patients, grade of continuity of outer retinal layers was not a significant predictive value for visual acuity development after triple ranibizumab injections.

  1. Spirituality factors in the prediction of outcomes of PTSD treatment for U.S. military veterans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currier, Joseph M; Holland, Jason M; Drescher, Kent D

    2015-02-01

    Spirituality is a multifaceted construct that might affect veterans' recovery from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in adaptive and maladaptive ways. Using a cross-lagged panel design, this study examined longitudinal associations between spirituality and PTSD symptom severity among 532 U.S. veterans in a residential treatment program for combat-related PTSD. Results indicated that spirituality factors at the start of treatment were uniquely predictive of PTSD symptom severity at discharge, when accounting for combat exposure and both synchronous and autoregressive associations between the study variables, βs = .10 to .16. Specifically, veterans who scored higher on adaptive dimensions of spirituality (daily spiritual experiences, forgiveness, spiritual practices, positive religious coping, and organizational religiousness) at intake fared significantly better in this program. In addition, possible spiritual struggles (operationalized as negative religious coping) at baseline were predictive of poorer PTSD outcomes, β = .11. In contrast to these results, PTSD symptomatology at baseline did not predict any of the spirituality variables at posttreatment. In keeping with a spiritually integrative approach to treating combat-related PTSD, these results suggest that understanding the possible spiritual context of veterans' trauma-related concerns might add prognostic value and equip clinicians to alleviate PTSD symptomatology among those veterans who possess spiritual resources or are somehow struggling in this domain.

  2. Conflict and love: predicting newlywed marital outcomes from two interaction contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graber, Elana C; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Miga, Erin; Chango, Joanna; Coan, James

    2011-08-01

    Research on marital interaction has focused primarily on couples in conflict contexts to understand better processes associated with concurrent and longitudinal outcomes such as marital stability and quality. Although this work has consistently revealed particular emotions (e.g., contempt) or behavioral sequences (e.g., demand/withdraw) predictive of later marital distress, it largely has neglected to take positive contexts into consideration. The present longitudinal study begins to address this gap in the literature by directly comparing newlywed behaviors from a conflict-resolution interaction with those from a love-paradigm interaction to predict relationship satisfaction and divorce proneness approximately 15 months later. Results showed that actor and partner negative (contempt) and positive (affection) emotions elicited in both positive (i.e., love) and negative (i.e., conflict) interaction contexts emerged as unique predictors of relationship quality and stability for both husbands and wives. Moreover, using a linear growth model, the temporal course of positive emotion during the love context, but not the conflict context, was predictive of later relationship satisfaction. Implications for future marital research and intervention are discussed.

  3. Deep phenotyping to predict live birth outcomes in in vitro fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Prajna; Choi, Bokyung; Shahine, Lora K; Jun, Sunny H; O'Leary, Kathleen; Lathi, Ruth B; Westphal, Lynn M; Wong, Wing H; Yao, Mylene W M

    2010-08-03

    Nearly 75% of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments do not result in live births and patients are largely guided by a generalized age-based prognostic stratification. We sought to provide personalized and validated prognosis by using available clinical and embryo data from prior, failed treatments to predict live birth probabilities in the subsequent treatment. We generated a boosted tree model, IVFBT, by training it with IVF outcomes data from 1,676 first cycles (C1s) from 2003-2006, followed by external validation with 634 cycles from 2007-2008, respectively. We tested whether this model could predict the probability of having a live birth in the subsequent treatment (C2). By using nondeterministic methods to identify prognostic factors and their relative nonredundant contribution, we generated a prediction model, IVF(BT), that was superior to the age-based control by providing over 1,000-fold improvement to fit new data (plive birth probabilities. We showed that data from a prior cycle could be used effectively to provide personalized and validated live birth probabilities in a subsequent cycle. Our approach may be replicated and further validated in other IVF clinics.

  4. Cytokine Profiles during Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease Predict Outcome in African Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilchrist, James J; Heath, Jennifer N; Msefula, Chisomo L; Gondwe, Esther N; Naranbhai, Vivek; Mandala, Wilson; MacLennan, Jenny M; Molyneux, Elizabeth M; Graham, Stephen M; Drayson, Mark T; Molyneux, Malcolm E; MacLennan, Calman A

    2016-07-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of sepsis in African children. Cytokine responses are central to the pathophysiology of sepsis and predict sepsis outcome in other settings. In this study, we investigated cytokine responses to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Malawian children. We determined serum concentrations of 48 cytokines with multiplexed immunoassays in Malawian children during acute iNTS disease (n = 111) and in convalescence (n = 77). Principal component analysis and logistic regression were used to identify cytokine signatures of acute iNTS disease. We further investigated whether these responses are altered by HIV coinfection or severe malnutrition and whether cytokine responses predict inpatient mortality. Cytokine changes in acute iNTS disease were associated with two distinct cytokine signatures. The first is characterized by increased concentrations of mediators known to be associated with macrophage function, and the second is characterized by raised pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines typical of responses reported in sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens. These cytokine responses were largely unaltered by either severe malnutrition or HIV coinfection. Children with fatal disease had a distinctive cytokine profile, characterized by raised mediators known to be associated with neutrophil function. In conclusion, cytokine responses to acute iNTS infection in Malawian children are reflective of both the cytokine storm typical of sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens and the intramacrophage replicative niche of NTS. The cytokine profile predictive of fatal disease supports a key role of neutrophils in the pathogenesis of NTS sepsis.

  5. Predictive Factors in OCT Analysis for Visual Outcome in Exudative AMD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamulescu, Maria-Andreea; Panagakis, Georgios; Theek, Carmen; Helbig, Horst

    2012-01-01

    Background. Reliable predictive factors for therapy outcome may enable treating physicians to counsel their patients more efficiently concerning probability of improvement or time point of discontinuation of a certain therapy. Methods. This is a retrospective analysis of 87 patients with exudative age-related macular degeneration who received three monthly intravitreal ranibizumab injections. Visual acuity before initiation of intravitreal therapy and 4-6 weeks after last intravitreal injection was compared and related to the preoperative visualisation of continuity of the outer retinal layers as assessed by OCT: external limiting membrane (ELM), inner photoreceptor segments (IPS), junction between inner and outer segments (IS/OS), and outer photoreceptor segments (OPS). Results. Visual acuity increased in 40 of 87 (46.0%) patients, it remained stable in 25 (28.7%), and 22 (25.3%) patients had decreased visual acuity four to six weeks after triple intravitreal ranibizumab injections. No statistically significant predictive value could be demonstrated for grade of continuity of outer retinal layers concerning visual acuity development. Conclusions. In our series of AMD patients, grade of continuity of outer retinal layers was not a significant predictive value for visual acuity development after triple ranibizumab injections.

  6. Threshold for NIH stroke scale in predicting vessel occlusion and functional outcome after stroke thrombolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooray, Charith; Fekete, Klara; Mikulik, Robert; Lees, Kennedy R; Wahlgren, Nils; Ahmed, Niaz

    2015-08-01

    Data are limited on optimal threshold for baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale in predicting outcome after stroke thrombolysis (intravenous thrombolysis). Finding thresholds for baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores that predict functional outcome and baseline vessel occlusion. We analyzed 44 331 patients with available modified Rankin Scale score at three-months and 11 632 patients with computed tomography/magnetic resonance angiography documented vessel occlusion at baseline in the SITS-International Stroke Thrombolysis Register. Main outcomes were functional independency (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) at three-months and baseline vessel occlusion. We obtained area under the curves by receiver operating characteristic analysis and calculated multivariately adjusted odds ratio for the outcomes of interest based on baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores. For functional independency, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores of 12 (area under the curve 0·775) and for baseline vessel occlusion, scores of 11 (area under the curve 0·678) were optimal threshold values. For functional independency, adjusted odds ratio decreased to 0·07 (95% CI 0·05-0·11), and for presence of baseline occlusion, aOR increased to 3·28 (95% CI 3·04-3·58) for National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores 12 and 11, respectively, compared with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 0. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale thresholds decreased with time from stroke onset to imaging, with 2-3 points, respectively, if time to imaging exceeded three-hours. Ideally, all acute stroke patients should have immediate access to multimodal imaging. In reality these services are limited. Baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores of 11 and 12 were identified as markers of baseline vessel occlusion and functional independency after intravenous thrombolysis, respectively. These values are time

  7. Diffusion tensor imaging for outcome prediction in mild traumatic brain injury: a TRACK-TBI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuh, Esther L; Cooper, Shelly R; Mukherjee, Pratik; Yue, John K; Lingsma, Hester F; Gordon, Wayne A; Valadka, Alex B; Okonkwo, David O; Schnyer, David M; Vassar, Mary J; Maas, Andrew I R; Manley, Geoffrey T

    2014-09-01

    We evaluated 3T diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) for white matter injury in 76 adult mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients at the semiacute stage (11.2±3.3 days), employing both whole-brain voxel-wise and region-of-interest (ROI) approaches. The subgroup of 32 patients with any traumatic intracranial lesion on either day-of-injury computed tomography (CT) or semiacute magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) in numerous white matter tracts, compared to 50 control subjects. In contrast, 44 CT/MRI-negative mTBI patients demonstrated no significant difference in any DTI parameter, compared to controls. To determine the clinical relevance of DTI, we evaluated correlations between 3- and 6-month outcome and imaging, demographic/socioeconomic, and clinical predictors. Statistically significant univariable predictors of 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) included MRI evidence for contusion (odds ratio [OR] 4.9 per unit decrease in GOS-E; p=0.01), ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 3.9; p=0.005), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.3; p=0.02), age (OR, 1.07/year; p=0.002), and years of education (OR, 0.79/year; p=0.01). Significant predictors of 6-month GOS-E included ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 2.7; p=0.048), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.7; p=0.01), and years of education (OR, 0.82/year; p=0.03). For the subset of 37 patients lacking neuropsychiatric and substance abuse history, MRI surpassed all other predictors for both 3- and 6-month outcome prediction. This is the first study to compare DTI in individual mTBI patients to conventional imaging, clinical, and demographic/socioeconomic characteristics for outcome prediction. DTI demonstrated utility in an inclusive group of patients with heterogeneous backgrounds, as well as in a subset of patients without neuropsychiatric or substance abuse history.

  8. Optic nerve diffusion tensor imaging after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anneke van der Walt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Early markers of axonal and clinical outcomes are required for early phase testing of putative neuroprotective therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether early measurement of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI parameters (axial and radial diffusivity within the optic nerve during and after acute demyelinating optic neuritis (ON could predict axonal (retinal nerve fibre layer thinning and multi-focal visual evoked potential amplitude reduction or clinical (visual acuity and visual field loss outcomes at 6 or 12 months. METHODS: Thirty-seven patients presenting with acute, unilateral ON were studied at baseline, one, three, six and 12 months using optic nerve DTI, clinical and paraclinical markers of axonal injury and clinical visual dysfunction. RESULTS: Affected nerve axial diffusivity (AD was reduced at baseline, 1 and 3 months. Reduced 1-month AD correlated with retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL thinning at 6 (R=0.38, p=0.04 and 12 months (R=0.437, p=0.008 and VEP amplitude loss at 6 (R=0.414, p=0.019 and 12 months (R=0.484, p=0.003. AD reduction at three months correlated with high contrast visual acuity at 6 (ρ = -0.519, p = 0.001 and 12 months (ρ = -0.414, p=0.011. The time-course for AD reduction for each patient was modelled using a quadratic regression. AD normalised after a median of 18 weeks and longer normalisation times were associated with more pronounced RNFL thinning and mfVEP amplitude loss at 12 months. Affected nerve radial diffusivity (RD was unchanged until three months, after which time it remained elevated. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that AD reduces during acute ON. One month AD reduction correlates with the extent of axonal loss and persistent AD reduction at 3 months predicts poorer visual outcomes. This suggests that acute ON therapies that normalise optic nerve AD by 3 months could also promote axon survival and improve visual outcomes.

  9. Diffusion Tensor Imaging for Outcome Prediction in Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuh, Esther L.; Cooper, Shelly R.; Mukherjee, Pratik; Yue, John K.; Lingsma, Hester F.; Gordon, Wayne A.; Valadka, Alex B.; Okonkwo, David O.; Schnyer, David M.; Vassar, Mary J.; Maas, Andrew I.R.; Casey, Scott S.; Cheong, Maxwell; Dams-O'Connor, Kristen; Hricik, Allison J.; Inoue, Tomoo; Menon, David K.; Morabito, Diane J.; Pacheco, Jennifer L.; Puccio, Ava M.; Sinha, Tuhin K.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated 3T diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) for white matter injury in 76 adult mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients at the semiacute stage (11.2±3.3 days), employing both whole-brain voxel-wise and region-of-interest (ROI) approaches. The subgroup of 32 patients with any traumatic intracranial lesion on either day-of-injury computed tomography (CT) or semiacute magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) in numerous white matter tracts, compared to 50 control subjects. In contrast, 44 CT/MRI-negative mTBI patients demonstrated no significant difference in any DTI parameter, compared to controls. To determine the clinical relevance of DTI, we evaluated correlations between 3- and 6-month outcome and imaging, demographic/socioeconomic, and clinical predictors. Statistically significant univariable predictors of 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) included MRI evidence for contusion (odds ratio [OR] 4.9 per unit decrease in GOS-E; p=0.01), ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 3.9; p=0.005), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.3; p=0.02), age (OR, 1.07/year; p=0.002), and years of education (OR, 0.79/year; p=0.01). Significant predictors of 6-month GOS-E included ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 2.7; p=0.048), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.7; p=0.01), and years of education (OR, 0.82/year; p=0.03). For the subset of 37 patients lacking neuropsychiatric and substance abuse history, MRI surpassed all other predictors for both 3- and 6-month outcome prediction. This is the first study to compare DTI in individual mTBI patients to conventional imaging, clinical, and demographic/socioeconomic characteristics for outcome prediction. DTI demonstrated utility in an inclusive group of patients with heterogeneous backgrounds, as well as in a subset of patients without neuropsychiatric or substance abuse history. PMID:24742275

  10. 4-protein signature predicting tamoxifen treatment outcome in recurrent breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marchi, Tommaso; Liu, Ning Qing; Stingl, Cristoph; Timmermans, Mieke A; Smid, Marcel; Look, Maxime P; Tjoa, Mila; Braakman, Rene B H; Opdam, Mark; Linn, Sabine C; Sweep, Fred C G J; Span, Paul N; Kliffen, Mike; Luider, Theo M; Foekens, John A; Martens, John W M; Umar, Arzu

    2016-01-01

    Estrogen receptor (ER) positive tumors represent the majority of breast malignancies, and are effectively treated with hormonal therapies, such as tamoxifen. However, in the recurrent disease resistance to tamoxifen therapy is common and a major cause of death. In recent years, in-depth proteome analyses have enabled identification of clinically useful biomarkers, particularly, when heterogeneity in complex tumor tissue was reduced using laser capture microdissection (LCM). In the current study, we performed high resolution proteomic analysis on two cohorts of ER positive breast tumors derived from patients who either manifested good or poor outcome to tamoxifen treatment upon recurrence. A total of 112 fresh frozen tumors were collected from multiple medical centers and divided into two sets: an in-house training and a multi-center test set. Epithelial tumor cells were enriched with LCM and analyzed by nano-LC Orbitrap mass spectrometry (MS), which yielded >3000 and >4000 quantified proteins in the training and test sets, respectively. Raw data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifiers PXD000484 and PXD000485. Statistical analysis showed differential abundance of 99 proteins, of which a subset of 4 proteins was selected through a multivariate step-down to develop a predictor for tamoxifen treatment outcome. The 4-protein signature significantly predicted poor outcome patients in the test set, independent of predictive histopathological characteristics (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 4.17; multivariate Cox regression p value = 0.017). Immunohistochemical (IHC) staining of PDCD4, one of the signature proteins, on an independent set of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor tissues provided and independent technical validation (HR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.57 to 0.92; multivariate Cox regression p value = 0.009). We hereby report the first validated protein predictor for tamoxifen treatment outcome in recurrent ER-positive breast

  11. Integration of umbilical venous and arterial Doppler flow parameters for prediction of adverse perinatal outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hebbar Shripad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Quantification of umbilical vein (UV blood flow rate and umbilical artery Doppler indices might be valuable in assessing fetuses at increased risk of perinatal complications as they receive their supply of oxygen and nutrients through this vessel. Previous studies have indicated that UV blood volume flow rate to umbilical artery pulsatility index (UAPI ratio (venous arterial index [VAI] evaluates both venous and arterial arm of fetal umbilical circulation and hence, can be adopted as a screening tool in management of high risk pregnancy. Objectives: To compare umbilical VAI with adverse perinatal outcome and also to evaluate its efficacy with other flow indices in determining perinatal outcome. Materials and Methods: Various Doppler indices such as normalized blood flow rate in UV (nUV, ml/kg estimated fetal weight/min, VAI (nUV/UAPI, umbilical artery resistance index (RI, UAPI, and systolic diastolic ratio were determined in 103 pregnant women within 2 weeks of the delivery. A risk score was devised using APGAR at 5 min, birth weight, preterm delivery, fetal distress, Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU care, and perinatal death and this score was correlated with antenatal Doppler findings. Results: Subjects with low VAI were found to have a greater association with intrauterine growth restricted fetuses (28.5% and low liquor (35.7%, preterm deliveries (46.4%, lower mean birth weight (2.25 kg, higher NICU admission rates (32.1%. The unfavorable score was noticed in 25.2% of the neonates. They had lower VAI (156 vs. 241, UV diameter (6.2 mm vs. 7.8 mm, UV velocity (16.2 vs. 17.8, nUV (163.7 vs. 206.4, and higher PI (1.3 vs. 0.9. A cut-off of VAI of 105 ml/kg/min had sensitivity of 86.7% and a specificity of 93.5% for predicting poor perinatal outcome. Conclusion: VAI with a cut-off of 105 ml/kg/min can be used as an additional tool along with the other conventional Doppler indices in order to predict adverse fetal outcome.

  12. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  13. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for treatment outcome prediction in patients with epilepsy based on structural connectome data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munsell, Brent C; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Keller, Simon S; Weber, Bernd; Elger, Christian; da Silva, Laura Angelica Tomaz; Nesland, Travis; Styner, Martin; Shen, Dinggang; Bonilha, Leonardo

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate machine learning algorithms aimed at predicting surgical treatment outcomes in groups of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) using only the structural brain connectome. Specifically, the brain connectome is reconstructed using white matter fiber tracts from presurgical diffusion tensor imaging. To achieve our objective, a two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is developed that gradually selects a small number of abnormal network connections that contribute to the surgical treatment outcome, and in each stage a linear kernel operation is used to further improve the accuracy of the learned classifier. Using a 10-fold cross validation strategy, the first stage in the connectome-based framework is able to separate patients with TLE from normal controls with 80% accuracy, and second stage in the connectome-based framework is able to correctly predict the surgical treatment outcome of patients with TLE with 70% accuracy. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods that use VBM data, the proposed two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is a suitable alternative with comparable prediction performance. Our results additionally show that machine learning algorithms that exclusively use structural connectome data can predict treatment outcomes in epilepsy with similar accuracy compared with "expert-based" clinical decision. In summary, using the unprecedented information provided in the brain connectome, machine learning algorithms may uncover pathological changes in brain network organization and improve outcome forecasting in the context of epilepsy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Behavioral, Brain Imaging and Genomic Measures to Predict Functional Outcomes Post - Bed Rest and Spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulavara, A. P.; DeDios, Y. E.; Gadd, N. E.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; Goel, R.; Seidler, R. D.; Oddsson, L.; Zanello, S.; Clarke, T.; Peters, B.; Cohen, H. S.; Reschke, M.; Wood, S.; Bloomberg, J. J.

    2016-01-01

    retrospective study, leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing or completed bed rest and spaceflight studies. These data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively (as described for behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures) from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post-mission (bed rest - non-astronauts or space flight - astronauts) adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. To date we have completed a study on 15 normal subjects with all of the above measures. In this presentation we will discuss the optimized set of tests for predictive metrics to be used for evaluating post mission adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive capacity, brain structure and functional capacities, and genetic predispositions. The ability to customize adaptability training will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to ensure expected outcomes.

  15. Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope Predicts Poor Outcome in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yi; Luo, Qin; Liu, Zhihong; Ma, Xiuping; Zhao, Zhihui; Huang, Zhiwei; Gao, Liu; Jin, Qi; Xiong, Changming; Ni, Xinhai

    2017-06-30

    Few published studies have evaluated the power of the oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES) to predict outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH), who typically die of right-sided heart failure. Our study sought to evaluate the power of OUES to predict clinical worsening and mortality in patients with IPAH. Patients with newly diagnosed IPAH who underwent symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing from November 11, 2010, to June 25, 2015, in our hospital were prospectively enrolled and followed for up to 66 months. Clinical worsening and mortality were recorded. A total of 210 patients with IPAH (159 women; mean age, 32±10 years) were studied with a median follow-up of 41 months. Thirty-one patients died, 1 patient underwent lung transplantation, and 85 patients presented with clinical worsening. The univariate analysis revealed that OUES, OUESI (OUESI=OUES/body surface area), peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2), peak V˙O2/kg, ventilation (V˙E)/carbon dioxide output (V˙CO2) slope, peak systolic blood pressure, heart rate recovery, pulmonary vascular resistance, cardiac index, N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide, and World Health Organization functional class were all predictive of clinical worsening and mortality (all P0.52 m(-2) (41.9% versus 89.8%, P<0.0001). The OUES, a submaximal parameter obtained from cardiopulmonary exercise testing, provides prognostic information for predicting clinical worsening and mortality in patients with IPAH. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  16. Predicted Risk of Mortality, Transfusion, and Postoperative Outcomes in Isolated Primary Valve Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeling, W Brent; Binongo, Jose; Sarin, Eric L; Leshnower, Bradley G; Chen, Edward P; Lattouf, Omar M; Thourani, Vinod H; Guyton, Robert A; Halkos, Michael E

    2016-02-01

    Transfusion has been linked with increased postoperative morbidity and death after cardiac operations. The purpose of this study was to determine the associations among The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (PROM), transfusion, and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent isolated primary valve operations. A retrospective review of the local Society of Thoracic Surgeons database of 1,575 adults undergoing isolated primary valve operations from 2003 to 2013 at a United States academic center was performed. Patients were compared by their postoperative transfusion status (NONE vs TRANS) and by PROM. Taking into account procedure type and preoperative hemoglobin, three-step multiple linear or logistic regression analyses were performed to assess (1) the influence of PROM on postoperative outcomes, (2) influence of PROM on transfusion, and (3) influence of PROM and transfusion on postoperative outcomes. Of 1,575 patients studied, 1,245 (79%) received transfusions. The mean PROM was 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 1.3) for patients in the NONE group, and was 2.7% (95% CI, 2.6 to 2.9) for the TRANS group. The correlation between PROM and total red blood cell units transfused was r = 0.31 (p < 0.0001). Patients with a PROM of 4% to 8% (odds ratio [OR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.28 to 3.45) and exceeding 8% (OR 3.80, 95% CI, 1.35 to 10.68) were more likely to receive transfusions than the low-risk (<4%) PROM stratum. For each percentage increase in PROM, the odds of transfusion increased by 27% (95% CI, 16% to 39%), controlling for procedure type and preoperative hemoglobin. There were no 30-day deaths in the NONE group, and rates of stroke, renal failure, and mediastinitis were lower. Composite event rates increased with increasing PROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.63), with TRANS patients consistently showing a higher risk of major adverse cardiac events than NONE patients (OR, 7.47; 95% CI, 2.08 to 26.80). Increased PROM yielded higher

  17. Predictive factors for final outcome of severely traumatized eyes with no light perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agrawal Rupesh

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An eye injury that causes no light perception (NLP typically carries an unfavorable prognosis, and NLP because of trauma is a common indication for enucleation. With advances in vitreoretinal surgical techniques, however, the indication for enucleation is no longer determined by posttrauma NLP vision alone. There are limited studies in the literature to analyse the outcome of NLP eyes following open globe injury. The current study was aimed to evaluate the outcome of surgical repair of severely traumatized eyes with no light perception vision as preoperative visual acuity. Secondary objective was to possibly predict the factors affecting the final vision outcome in this eyes. Methods Retrospective case analysis of patients with surgical repair of open globe injury over last ten years at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore. Results Out of one hundred and seventy two eyes with open globe injury 27 (15.7% eyes had no light perception (NLP. After surgical repair, final visual acuity remained NLP in 18 (66.7% eyes. Final vision improved to Light perception/ Hand movement (LP/HM in 2(7.4% eyes, 1/200 to 19/200(11.1% in 3 eyes and 20/50-20/200(14.8% in 4 eyes. The median follow up was 18.9 months (range: 4–60 months. The factors contributing to poor postoperative outcome were presence of RAPD (p = 0.014, wound extending into zone III (p = 0.023 and associated vitreoretinal trauma (p = 0.008. Conclusions One third of eyes had ambulatory vision or better though two third of eyes still remained NLP. Pre-operative visual acuity of NLP should not be an indication for primary enucleation or evisceration for severely traumatized eyes. Presence of afferent papillary defect, wound extending posterior to rectus insertion and associated vitreoretinal trauma can adversely affect the outcome in severely traumatized eyes with NLP. Timely intervention and state of art surgery may restore useful vision in severely

  18. Predictability of motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging in patients with cerebral infarct

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Yong Hyun [Yeungnam College of Science and Technology, Department of Physical Therapy, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Jeoung, Yong Jae [Yeungnam University, Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jun [Yeungnam University, Department of Neurology, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Son, Su Min; Jang, Sung Ho [Yeungnam University 317-1, Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Saeyoon [Yeungnam University, Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, Taegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Chulseung [Medical Devices Clinical Trial Center of Yeungnam University Hospital, Taegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-07-15

    Predictability of diffusion tensor imaging tractography (DTT) for motor outcome can differ according to the time of DTT. We attempted to compare the predictability for motor outcome according to the time of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) by analyzing the corticospinal tract (CST) integrity on DTT in patients with corona radiata (CR) infarct. Seventy-one consecutive hemiparetic patients with CR infarct were recruited. Motor function of the affected extremities was measured twice: at onset and at 6 months from onset. According to the time of DTI, patients were classified into two groups: the early scanning group (ES group) within 14 days since stroke onset; and the late scanning group (LS group) 15-28 days. Motor outcome was compared with the CST integrity on DTT. Motor prognosis was predicted from scan time of DTI and the CST integrity on DTT in the logistic regression model. According to separate regression analysis, the CST integrity of the late group was found to predict MI score (OR = 14.000, 95% CI = 3.194-61.362, p < 0.05), whereas the CST integrity of the early group was not found to predict MI score. In terms of both positive and negative predictabilities, we found that predictability of DTT for motor outcome was better in patients who were scanned later (15-28 days after onset) than in patients who were scanned earlier (1-14 days after onset). (orig.)

  19. Velocity ratio predicts outcomes in patients with low gradient severe aortic stenosis and preserved EF

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jander, Nikolaus; Hochholzer, Willibald; Kaufmann, Beat A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of velocity ratio (VR) in patients with low gradient severe aortic stenosis (LGSAS) and preserved EF. BACKGROUND: LGSAS despite preserved EF represents a clinically challenging entity. Reliance on mean pressure gradient (MPG) may underestimate stenosis severity...... as has been reported in the context of paradoxical low flow, LGSAS. On the other hand, grading of stenosis severity by aortic valve area (AVA) may overrate stenosis severity due to erroneous underestimation of LV outflow tract (LVOT) diameter, small body size or inconsistencies in cut-off values...... for severe stenosis. We hypothesised that VR may have conceptual advantages over MPG and AVA, predict clinical outcomes and thereby be useful in the management of patients with LGSAS. METHODS: Patients from the prospective Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study with an AVA

  20. Enhanced Neonatal Brain Responses To Sung Streams Predict Vocabulary Outcomes By Age 18 Months.

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Clément; Teixidó, Maria; Takerkart, Sylvain; Agut, Thaïs; Bosch, Laura; Rodriguez-Fornells, Antoni

    2017-09-29

    Words and melodies are some of the basic elements infants are able to extract early in life from the auditory input. Whether melodic cues contained in songs can facilitate word-form extraction immediately after birth remained unexplored. Here, we provided converging neural and computational evidence of the early benefit of melodies for language acquisition. Twenty-eight neonates were tested on their ability to extract word-forms from continuous flows of sung and spoken syllabic sequences. We found different brain dynamics for sung and spoken streams and observed successful detection of word-form violations in the sung condition only. Furthermore, neonatal brain responses for sung streams predicted expressive vocabulary at 18 months as demonstrated by multiple regression and cross-validation analyses. These findings suggest that early neural individual differences in prosodic speech processing might be a good indicator of later language outcomes and could be considered as a relevant factor in the development of infants' language skills.

  1. A histopathological score on baseline biopsies from elderly donors predicts outcome 1 year after renal transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Birgitte G; Federspiel, Birgitte H; Sørensen, Søren S

    2012-01-01

    Kidneys from elderly deceased patients and otherwise marginal donors may be considered for transplantation and a pretransplantation histopathological score for prediction of postoperative outcome is warranted. In a retrospective design, 29 baseline renal needle biopsies from elderly deceased donors...... wall thickness of arteries and/or arterioles. Nineteen renal baseline biopsies from 15 donors (age: 64 ± 10 years) were included and following consensus the histopathological score was 4.3 ± 2.1 (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.81; confidence interval: 0.66-0.92). The donor organs were used...... for single renal transplantation (recipient age: 47 ± 3 years). Two grafts were lost after the transplantation. In the remaining 17 recipients the 1-year creatinine clearance (54 ± 6 mL/min) correlated to the baseline histopathological score (r(2) = 0.59; p

  2. k-Nearest neighbor models for microarray gene expression analysis and clinical outcome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, R M; Jones, W; Stokes, T H; Phan, J H; Moffitt, R A; Fang, H; Shi, L; Oberthuer, A; Fischer, M; Tong, W; Wang, M D

    2010-08-01

    In the clinical application of genomic data analysis and modeling, a number of factors contribute to the performance of disease classification and clinical outcome prediction. This study focuses on the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) modeling strategy and its clinical use. Although KNN is simple and clinically appealing, large performance variations were found among experienced data analysis teams in the MicroArray Quality Control Phase II (MAQC-II) project. For clinical end points and controls from breast cancer, neuroblastoma and multiple myeloma, we systematically generated 463,320 KNN models by varying feature ranking method, number of features, distance metric, number of neighbors, vote weighting and decision threshold. We identified factors that contribute to the MAQC-II project performance variation, and validated a KNN data analysis protocol using a newly generated clinical data set with 478 neuroblastoma patients. We interpreted the biological and practical significance of the derived KNN models, and compared their performance with existing clinical factors.

  3. A critical evaluation of network and pathway based classifiers for outcome prediction in breast cancer

    CERN Document Server

    Staiger, C; Kooter, R; Dittrich, M; Mueller, T; Klau, G W; Wessels, L F A

    2011-01-01

    Recently, several classifiers that combine primary tumor data, like gene expression data, and secondary data sources, such as protein-protein interaction networks, have been proposed for predicting outcome in breast cancer. In these approaches, new composite features are typically constructed by aggregating the expression levels of several genes. The secondary data sources are employed to guide this aggregation. Although many studies claim that these approaches improve classification performance over single gene classifiers, the gain in performance is difficult to assess. This stems mainly from the fact that different breast cancer data sets and validation procedures are employed to assess the performance. Here we address these issues by employing a large cohort of six breast cancer data sets as benchmark set and by performing an unbiased evaluation of the classification accuracies of the different approaches. Contrary to previous claims, we find that composite feature classifiers do not outperform simple sin...

  4. Combining gene mutation with gene expression data improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerstung, Moritz; Pellagatti, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Porta, Matteo G Della; Jädersten, Martin; Dolatshad, Hamid; Verma, Amit; Cross, Nicholas C. P.; Vyas, Paresh; Killick, Sally; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cazzola, Mario; Papaemmanuil, Elli; Campbell, Peter J.; Boultwood, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is a genetic disease, but two patients rarely have identical genotypes. Similarly, patients differ in their clinicopathological parameters, but how genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity are interconnected is not well understood. Here we build statistical models to disentangle the effect of 12 recurrently mutated genes and 4 cytogenetic alterations on gene expression, diagnostic clinical variables and outcome in 124 patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. Overall, one or more genetic lesions correlate with expression levels of ~20% of all genes, explaining 20–65% of observed expression variability. Differential expression patterns vary between mutations and reflect the underlying biology, such as aberrant polycomb repression for ASXL1 and EZH2 mutations or perturbed gene dosage for copy-number changes. In predicting survival, genomic, transcriptomic and diagnostic clinical variables all have utility, with the largest contribution from the transcriptome. Similar observations are made on the TCGA acute myeloid leukaemia cohort, confirming the general trends reported here. PMID:25574665

  5. Gender identity outcomes in children with disorders/differences of sex development: Predictive factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakula, Dana M; Mullins, Alexandria J; Sharkey, Christina M; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Mullins, Larry L; Wisniewski, Amy B

    2017-06-01

    Disorders/differences of sex development (DSD) comprise multiple congenital conditions in which chromosomal, gonadal, and/or anatomical sex are discordant. The prediction of future gender identity (i.e., self-identifying as male, female, or other) in children with DSD can be imprecise, and current knowledge about the development of gender identity in people with, and without DSD, is limited. However, sex of rearing is the strongest predictor of gender identity for the majority of individuals with various DSD conditions. When making decisions regarding sex of rearing biological factors (e.g., possession of a Y chromosome, degree and duration of pre- and postnatal androgen exposure, phenotypic presentation of the external genitalia, and fertility potential), social and cultural factors, as well as quality of life should be considered. Information on gender identity outcomes across a range of DSD diagnoses is presented to aid in sex of rearing assignment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ovesen, Christian Aavang; Christensen, Anders; Nielsen, J K

    2013-01-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasmino......Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant...... and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0...

  7. Orbital and Maxillofacial Computer Aided Surgery: Patient-Specific Finite Element Models To Predict Surgical Outcomes

    CERN Document Server

    Luboz, V; Swider, P; Payan, Y; Luboz, Vincent; Chabanas, Matthieu; Swider, Pascal; Payan, Yohan

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses an important issue raised for the clinical relevance of Computer-Assisted Surgical applications, namely the methodology used to automatically build patient-specific Finite Element (FE) models of anatomical structures. From this perspective, a method is proposed, based on a technique called the Mesh-Matching method, followed by a process that corrects mesh irregularities. The Mesh-Matching algorithm generates patient-specific volume meshes from an existing generic model. The mesh regularization process is based on the Jacobian matrix transform related to the FE reference element and the current element. This method for generating patient-specific FE models is first applied to Computer-Assisted maxillofacial surgery, and more precisely to the FE elastic modelling of patient facial soft tissues. For each patient, the planned bone osteotomies (mandible, maxilla, chin) are used as boundary conditions to deform the FE face model, in order to predict the aesthetic outcome of the surgery. Seven F...

  8. Diaphragm and Lung Ultrasound to Predict Weaning Outcome: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llamas-Álvarez, Ana M; Tenza-Lozano, Eva M; Latour-Pérez, Jaime

    2017-08-31

    Deciding the optimal timing for extubation in patients who are mechanically ventilated can be challenging, and traditional weaning predictor tools are not very accurate. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the accuracy of lung and diaphragm ultrasound for predicting weaning outcomes in critically ill adults. MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, LILACS, Teseo, Tesis Doctorales en Red, and OpenGrey were searched, and the bibliographies of relevant studies were reviewed. Two researchers independently selected studies that met the inclusion criteria and assessed study quality in accordance with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. The summary receiver-operating characteristic curve and pooled diagnostic OR (DOR) were estimated by using a bivariate random effects analysis. Sources of heterogeneity were explored by using predefined subgroup analyses and bivariate meta-regression. Nineteen studies involving 1,071 people were included in the study. For diaphragm thickening fraction, the area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.87, and DOR was 21 (95% CI, 11-40). Regarding diaphragmatic excursion, pooled sensitivity was 75% (95% CI, 65-85); pooled specificity, 75% (95% CI, 60-85); and DOR, 10 (95% CI, 4-24). For lung ultrasound, the area under the summary receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.77, and DOR was 38 (95% CI, 7-198). Based on bivariate meta-regression analysis, a significantly higher specificity for diaphragm thickening fraction and higher sensitivity for diaphragmatic excursion was detected in studies with applicability concerns. Lung and diaphragm ultrasound can help predict weaning outcome, but its accuracy may vary depending on the patient subpopulation. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Lesion stability characteristics outperform degree of stenosis in predicting outcomes following stenting for symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, M D; Cooke, D L; Meyers, P M; Amans, M R; Dowd, C F; Halbach, V V; Higashida, R T; Hetts, S W

    2016-01-01

    Intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) causes substantial morbidity and mortality. Treatment decisions have most commonly been driven by the degree of luminal stenosis. This study compares ICAD lesion stability features with percentage stenosis for associations with adverse outcomes following treatment with stents. Retrospective analysis was performed of prospectively maintained procedure logs. Lesions were classified by symptom type as hypoperfusion, non-hypoperfusion, or indeterminate, and pretreatment asymptomatic intervals were noted. Hypoperfusion lesions and indeterminate or non-hypoperfusion lesions with ≥14 days of asymptomatic interval were classified as stable. Percentage stenosis was calculated and compared against these other symptom features for value in predicting technical complication, ischemic stroke, disability, or death at 90 days and 2 years using univariate and multivariate analysis. 130 lesions were treated in 124 patients. The only statistically significant percent stenosis finding was lesions with 60-99% stenosis were less likely to have technical complications. In univariate analysis, stroke at 2 years was less common with hypoperfusion and stable lesions. In multivariate analysis, only hypoperfusion status was associated with lower stroke rates at 2 years. Lesion stability features, particularly non-hypoperfusion symptomatology, outperform percentage stenosis in predicting outcomes following treatment of ICAD with stents. Further examination is needed to better classify the natural history of ICAD and more precisely classify lesion stability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  10. A STUDY OF OBSTRUCTIVE JAUNDICE WITH FOCUS ON PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR OUTCOME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinidhi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive jaundice is a problem frequently encountered by general surgeons. A clear understanding of the etiology, presentation and management is a prerequisite for the management of obstructive jaundice. There is a need to identify the risk factors which may predict outcome. Hence, a detailed study of the various causes of obstructive jaundice and their management is of paramount importance. METHODS: A Prospective observational study was undertaken to investigate the pattern of clinical presentation, diagnosis and management of the different causes of obstructive jaundice. About 21 consecutive patients with symptoms and signs of obstructive jaundice were included in the study. Cases were admitted, examined, investigated and operated during the period of Nov 2010 to Aug 2012. RESULTS & CONCLUSION: The highest age incidence of obstructive jaundice was in the 50 - 80 years with maximum incidence in the 6th decade. There was an increased incidence in female i.e. M: F=1:2.5. Most common cause of obstructive jaundice is choledocholithiasis, followed by periampullary carcinoma. Among periampullary carcinoma, Ca head of pancreas and Ca Ampulla of Vater are the common causes. Jaundice is the most common presentation of surgical jaundice followed by pain abdomen, nausea/vomiting, itching, loss of weight and fever. Ultrasonography was the investigation of choice in our hospital. It is cheap, safe and reliable. Early diagnosis and management helps to reduce the mortality and morbidity rate. ERCP is comparatively as good as Open exploration of CBD and Choledochoduodenostomy for CBD calculi. Good survival benefit in cases of malignant obstructive jaundice depends on detecting the disease early in its course. It was noted on statistical analysis of malignant cases that the values of direct bilirubin levels were significantly higher in those patients who expired postoperatively compared to surviving patients. Hence these parameters

  11. An intronic variant in OPRD1 predicts treatment outcome for opioid dependence in African-Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crist, Richard C; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Ang, Alfonso; Ambrose-Lanci, Lisa M; Lohoff, Falk W; Saxon, Andrew J; Ling, Walter; Hillhouse, Maureen P; Bruce, R Douglas; Woody, George; Berrettini, Wade H

    2013-09-01

    Although buprenorphine and methadone are both effective treatments for opioid dependence, their efficacy can vary significantly among patients. Genetic differences may explain some of the variability in treatment outcome. Understanding the interactions between genetic background and pharmacotherapy may result in more informed treatment decisions. This study is a pharmacogenetic analysis of the effects of genetic variants in OPRD1, the gene encoding the δ-opioid receptor, on the prevalence of opioid-positive urine tests in African-Americans (n=77) or European-Americans (n=566) undergoing treatment for opioid dependence. Patients were randomly assigned to treatment with either methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone (Suboxone) over a 24-week open-label clinical trial, in which illicit opioid use was measured by weekly urinalysis. In African-Americans, the intronic SNP rs678849 predicted treatment outcome for both medications. Methadone patients with the CC genotype were less likely to have opioid-positive urine tests than those in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (relative risk (RR)=0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.44-0.60, p=0.001). In the buprenorphine treatment group, however, individuals with the CC genotype were more likely to have positive opioid drug screens than individuals in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (RR=2.17, 95% CI=1.95-2.68, p=0.008). These findings indicate that the genotype at rs678849 predicts African-American patient response to two common treatments for opioid dependence, suggesting that matching patients to treatment type based on the genotype at this locus may improve overall treatment efficacy. This observation requires confirmation in an independent population.

  12. Artificial neural networks in the outcome prediction of adjustable gastric banding in obese women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Piaggi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity is unanimously regarded as a global epidemic and a major contributing factor to the development of many common illnesses. Laparoscopic Adjustable Gastric Banding (LAGB is one of the most popular surgical approaches worldwide. Yet, substantial variability in the results and significant rate of failure can be expected, and it is still debated which categories of patients are better suited to this type of bariatric procedure. The aim of this study was to build a statistical model based on both psychological and physical data to predict weight loss in obese patients treated by LAGB, and to provide a valuable instrument for the selection of patients that may benefit from this procedure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study population consisted of 172 obese women, with a mean ± SD presurgical and postsurgical Body Mass Index (BMI of 42.5 ± 5.1 and 32.4 ± 4.8 kg/m(2, respectively. Subjects were administered the comprehensive test of psychopathology Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2. Main goal of the study was to use presurgical data to predict individual therapeutical outcome in terms of Excess Weight Loss (EWL after 2 years. Multiple linear regression analysis using the MMPI-2 scores, BMI and age was performed to determine the variables that best predicted the EWL. Based on the selected variables including age, and 3 psychometric scales, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs were employed to improve the goodness of prediction. Linear and non linear models were compared in their classification and prediction tasks: non linear model resulted to be better at data fitting (36% vs. 10% variance explained, respectively and provided more reliable parameters for accuracy and mis-classification rates (70% and 30% vs. 66% and 34%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ANN models can be successfully applied for prediction of weight loss in obese women treated by LAGB. This approach may constitute a valuable tool for

  13. Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Relaxometry Predicts Regional Functional Outcome After Experimental Myocardial Infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberkorn, Sebastian M; Jacoby, Christoph; Ding, Zhaoping; Keul, Petra; Bönner, Florian; Polzin, Amin; Levkau, Bodo; Schrader, Jürgen; Kelm, Malte; Flögel, Ulrich

    2017-08-01

    Cardiovascular magnetic resonance with gadolinium-based contrast agents has established as gold standard for tissue characterization after myocardial infarction (MI). Beyond accurate diagnosis, the value of cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict the outcome after MI has yet to be substantiated. Recent cardiovascular magnetic resonance approaches were systematically compared for quantification of tissue injury and functional impairment after MI using murine models with permanent left anterior descending coronary artery ligation (n=14) or 50 minutes ischemia/reperfusion (n=13). Cardiovascular magnetic resonance included native/postcontrast T1 maps, T2 maps, and late gadolinium enhancement at days 1 and 21 post-MI. For regional correlation of parametric and functional measures, the left ventricle was analyzed over 200 sectors. For T1 mapping, we used retrospective triggering with variable flip angle analysis. Sectoral analysis of native T1 maps already revealed in the acute phase after MI substantial discrepancies in myocardial tissue texture between the 2 MI models (native T1 day 1: permanent ligation, 1280.0±162.6 ms; ischemia/reperfusion, 1115.0±140.5 ms; Pfunctional outcome (left ventricular ejection fraction day 21: permanent ligation, 24.5±7.0%; ischemia/reperfusion, 33.7±11.6%; Pfunction in corresponding areas at day 21 demonstrated for early native T1 values the best correlation with the later functional impairment (R(2) =0.94). The present T1 mapping approach permits accurate characterization of local tissue injury and holds the potential for sensitive and graduated prognosis of the functional outcome after MI without gadolinium-based contrast agents. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Abdominal compartment syndrome in trauma patients: New insights for predicting outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisha W Shaheen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS is associated with high morbidity and mortality among trauma patients. Several clinical and laboratory findings have been suggested as markers for ACS, and these may point to different types of ACS and complications. Aims: This study aims to identify the strength of association of clinical and laboratory variables with specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. Settings and Design: A 5-year retrospective chart review was conducted at three Level I Trauma Centers in the City of Chicago, IL, USA. Subjects and Methods:A complete set of demographic, pre-, intra- and post-operative variables were collected from 28 patient charts. Statistical Analysis:Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to determine the strength of association between 29 studied variables and eight end outcomes. Results: Thirty-day mortality was associated strongly with the finding of an initial intra-abdominal pressure >20 mmHg and moderately with blunt injury mechanism. A lactic acid >5 mmol/L on admission was moderately associated with increased blood transfusion requirements and with acute renal failure during the hospitalization. Developing ACS within 48 h of admission was moderately associated with increased length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU, more ventilator days, and longer hospital stay. Initial operative intervention lasting more than 2 h was moderately associated with risk of developing multi-organ failure. Hemoglobin level 7 days were moderately associated with a disposition to long-term support facility. Conclusions: Clinical and lab variables can predict specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. These findings may be used to guide patient management, improve resource utilization, and build capacity within trauma centers.

  15. Functional connectivity estimated from intracranial EEG predicts surgical outcome in intractable temporal lobe epilepsy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun R Antony

    Full Text Available This project aimed to determine if a correlation-based measure of functional connectivity can identify epileptogenic zones from intracranial EEG signals, as well as to investigate the prognostic significance of such a measure on seizure outcome following temporal lobe lobectomy. To this end, we retrospectively analyzed 23 adult patients with intractable temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE who underwent an invasive stereo-EEG (SEEG evaluation between January 2009 year and January 2012. A follow-up of at least one year was required. The primary outcome measure was complete seizure-freedom at last follow-up. Functional connectivity between two areas in the temporal lobe that were sampled by two SEEG electrode contacts was defined as Pearson's correlation coefficient of interictal activity between those areas. SEEG signals were filtered between 5 and 50 Hz prior to computing this correlation. The mean and standard deviation of the off diagonal elements in the connectivity matrix were also calculated. Analysis of the mean and standard deviation of the functional connections for each patient reveals that 90% of the patients who had weak and homogenous connections were seizure free one year after temporal lobectomy, whereas 85% of the patients who had stronger and more heterogeneous connections within the temporal lobe had recurrence of seizures. This suggests that temporal lobectomy is ineffective in preventing seizure recurrence for patients in whom the temporal lobe is characterized by weakly connected, homogenous networks. This pilot study shows promising potential of a simple measure of functional brain connectivity to identify epileptogenicity and predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery.

  16. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  17. EU framework 6 project: predictive toxicology (PredTox)--overview and outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-04-15

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 PROJECT: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and "omics" technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of "omics" and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that "omics" technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated "omics" analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  18. Integrating Publicly Available Data to Generate Computationally Predicted Adverse Outcome Pathways for Fatty Liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Shannon M; Angrish, Michelle M; Wood, Charles E; Edwards, Stephen W

    2016-04-01

    Newin vitrotesting strategies make it possible to design testing batteries for large numbers of environmental chemicals. Full utilization of the results requires knowledge of the underlying biological networks and the adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) that describe the route from early molecular perturbations to an adverse outcome. Curation of a formal AOP is a time-intensive process and a rate-limiting step to designing these test batteries. Here, we describe a method for integrating publicly available data in order to generate computationally predicted AOP (cpAOP) scaffolds, which can be leveraged by domain experts to shorten the time for formal AOP development. A network-based workflow was used to facilitate the integration of multiple data types to generate cpAOPs. Edges between graph entities were identified through direct experimental or literature information, or computationally inferred using frequent itemset mining. Data from the TG-GATEs and ToxCast programs were used to channel large-scale toxicogenomics information into a cpAOP network (cpAOPnet) of over 20 000 relationships describing connections between chemical treatments, phenotypes, and perturbed pathways as measured by differential gene expression and high-throughput screening targets. The resulting fatty liver cpAOPnet is available as a resource to the community. Subnetworks of cpAOPs for a reference chemical (carbon tetrachloride, CCl4) and outcome (fatty liver) were compared with published mechanistic descriptions. In both cases, the computational approaches approximated the manually curated AOPs. The cpAOPnet can be used for accelerating expert-curated AOP development and to identify pathway targets that lack genomic markers or high-throughput screening tests. It can also facilitate identification of key events for designing test batteries and for classification and grouping of chemicals for follow up testing.

  19. Does the Kushida morphometric model predict outcomes following maxillomandibular advancement surgery for obstructive sleep apnoea?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Shofiq; Aleem, Fahd; Ormiston, Ian W

    2014-12-01

    The primary aim of this study was to explore the predictive potential of the preoperative Kushida index score and subsequent outcome following maxillomandibular advancement surgery (MMA). Secondarily we looked at how well the Kushida values of our OSA patients matched the morphometric models diagnostic thresholds. We performed a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent MMA for OSA at our institution. Kushida morphometric scores were calculated using the described formula: P + (Mx - Mn) + 3 × OJ + 3 × [Max (BMI - 25)] × (NC ÷ BMI). Regression analysis was performed to explore the possible association between Kushida index score and outcome variables of postoperative apnoea/hypopnea indices (AHI) and Epworth Sleepiness Scores (ESS). We identified 28 patients with complete data available for analysis. The mean age was 45 years (SD 6) with mean BMI of 28 (SD 3). All, but one patient underwent bi-maxillary procedure with or without genioplasty, with a mean advancement of 8.5 mm (SD 2). The mean Kushida index score in our sample was 79 (SD 14). 89% of patients had postoperative AHI <15 in keeping with surgical success. We found no statistically significant relationship with Kushida morphometric model variables and overall score with either of our outcome variables. The mean Kushida index score in our patients was in the range consistent with the morphometric models diagnostic cut-off for OSA. Kushida's morphometric model does not appear to be a good predictor of postoperative success in individuals following MMA. The morphometric model represents a clinical adjunct in the initial diagnostic work-up of OSA patients referred for surgery. Copyright © 2014 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Neural activation during processing of aversive faces predicts treatment outcome in alcoholism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlet, Katrin; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Richter, Anne; Naundorf, Karina; Dornhof, Lina; Weinfurtner, Christopher E J; König, Friederike; Walaszek, Bernadeta; Schubert, Florian; Müller, Christian A; Gutwinski, Stefan; Seissinger, Annette; Schmitz, Lioba; Walter, Henrik; Beck, Anne; Gallinat, Jürgen; Kiefer, Falk; Heinz, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Neuropsychological studies reported decoding deficits of emotional facial expressions in alcohol-dependent patients, and imaging studies revealed reduced prefrontal and limbic activation during emotional face processing. However, it remains unclear whether this reduced neural activation is mediated by alcohol-associated volume reductions and whether it interacts with treatment outcome. We combined analyses of neural activation during an aversive face-cue-comparison task and local gray matter volumes (GM) using Biological Parametric Mapping in 33 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients and 33 matched healthy controls. Alcoholics displayed reduced activation toward aversive faces-neutral shapes in bilateral fusiform gyrus [FG; Brodmann areas (BA) 18/19], right middle frontal gyrus (BA46/47), right inferior parietal gyrus (BA7) and left cerebellum compared with controls, which were explained by GM differences (except for cerebellum). Enhanced functional activation in patients versus controls was found in left rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus (BA10/11), even after GM reduction control. Increased ACC activation correlated significantly with less (previous) lifetime alcohol intake [Lifetime Drinking History (LDH)], longer abstinence and less subsequent binge drinking in patients. High LDH appear to impair treatment outcome via its neurotoxicity on ACC integrity. Thus, high activation of the rostral ACC elicited by affective faces appears to be a resilience factor predicting better treatment outcome. Although no group differences were found, increased FG activation correlated with patients' higher LDH. Because high LDH correlated with worse task performance for facial stimuli in patients, elevated activation in the fusiform 'face' area may reflect inefficient compensatory activation. Therapeutic interventions (e.g. emotion evaluation training) may enable patients to cope with social stress and to decrease relapses after detoxification.

  1. Angiographically Negative Acute Arterial Upper and Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Incidence, Predictive Factors, and Clinical Outcomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jin Hyoung; Shin, Ji Hoon; Yoon, Hyun Ki; Chae, Eun Young; Myung, Seung Jae; Ko, Gi Young; Gwon, Dong Il; Sung, Kyu Bo [Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-08-15

    To evaluate the incidence, predictive factors, and clinical outcomes of angiographically negative acute arterial upper and lower gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. From 2001 to 2008, 143 consecutive patients who underwent an angiography for acute arterial upper or lower GI bleeding were examined. The angiographies revealed a negative bleeding focus in 75 of 143 (52%) patients. The incidence of an angiographically negative outcome was significantly higher in patients with a stable hemodynamic status (p < 0.001), or in patients with lower GI bleeding (p = 0.032). A follow-up of the 75 patients (range: 0-72 months, mean: 8 {+-} 14 months) revealed that 60 of the 75 (80%) patients with a negative bleeding focus underwent conservative management only, and acute bleeding was controlled without rebleeding. Three of the 75 (4%) patients underwent exploratory surgery due to prolonged bleeding; however, no bleeding focus was detected. Rebleeding occurred in 12 of 75 (16%) patients. Of these, six patients experienced massive rebleeding and died of disseminated intravascular coagulation within four to nine hours after the rebleeding episode. Four of the 16 patients underwent a repeat angiography and the two remaining patients underwent a surgical intervention to control the bleeding. Angiographically negative results are relatively common in patients with acute GI bleeding, especially in patients with a stable hemodynamic status or lower GI bleeding. Most patients with a negative bleeding focus have experienced spontaneous resolution of their condition.

  2. Predicting depression outcome in mental health treatment: a recursive partitioning analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Margit I; Hegel, Mark T

    2014-01-01

    Recursive partitioning was applied to a longitudinal dataset of outpatient mental health clinic patients to identify empirically factors and interactions among factors that best predicted clinical improvement and deterioration in symptoms of depression across treatment. Sixty-two variables drawn from an initial patient survey and from chart review were included as covariates in the analysis, representing nearly all of the demographic, treatment, symptom, diagnostic, and social history information obtained from patients at their initial evaluations. Trees estimated the probability of participants' having depression at their last assessment, improving to a clinically significant degree during treatment, or developing a new onset of significant depressive symptoms during treatment. Initial pain, the presence of anxiety, and a history of multiple types of abuse were risk factors for poorer outcome, even among patients who did not initially have significant depressive symptoms. By examining multiple-related outcomes, we were able to create a series of overlapping models that revealed important predictors across trees. Limitations of the study included the lack of cross-validation of the trees and the exploratory nature of the analysis.

  3. Elevated MED28 expression predicts poor outcome in women with breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horvath Steve

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background MED28 (also known as EG-1 and magicin has been implicated in transcriptional control, signal regulation, and cell proliferation. MED28 has also been associated with tumor progression in in vitro and in vivo models. Here we examined the association of MED28 expression with human breast cancer progression. Methods Expression of MED28 protein was determined on a population basis using a high-density tissue microarray consisting of 210 breast cancer patients. The association and validation of MED28 expression with histopathological subtypes, clinicopathological variables, and disease outcome was assessed. Results MED28 protein expression levels were increased in ductal carcinoma in situ and invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast compared to non-malignant glandular and ductal epithelium. Moreover, MED28 was a predictor of disease outcome in both univariate and multivariate analyses with higher expression predicting a greater risk of disease-related death. Conclusions We have demonstrated that MED28 expression is increased in breast cancer. In addition, although the patient size was limited (88 individuals with survival information MED28 is a novel and strong independent prognostic indicator of survival for breast cancer.

  4. Decrease in 1-year Kidney Graft Size Predicts Inferior Outcomes After Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Černe, Senka; Arnol, Miha; Kandus, Aljoša; Buturović-Ponikvar, Jadranka

    2016-08-01

    Longest bipolar length of the kidney graft is routinely measured for ultrasonographic assessment of graft size (GS), although the value of the graft length remains unclear. In a single-center, observational study involving 319 deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients, we assessed variations in absolute and adjusted GS (corrected for body surface area) between 1 and 12 months after transplantation ([INCREMENT]GS1m→12m). We tested whether variations in GS during the first year were predictive of the composite outcome of a reduction of 50% or more in the estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage graft failure. At 1 year after transplantation, 121 patients (38%) had a decrease in GS ([INCREMENT]GS1m→12m decrease in GS reached the composite outcome as compared with 12 patients with an increase in GS (34% and 6%, respectively; P decrease in GS during the first year after transplantation (hazard ratio, 4.55; 95% CI, 2.35-8.81; P decrease in kidney GS during the first year after transplantation, as compared with an increase in GS, is a powerful predictor of subsequent graft dysfunction or end-stage graft failure.

  5. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  6. Liver protein profiling in chronic hepatitis C: identification of potential predictive markers for interferon therapy outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdomo, Ariel Basulto; Ciccosanti, Fabiola; Iacono, Oreste Lo; Angeletti, Claudio; Corazzari, Marco; Daniele, Nicola; Testa, Angela; Pisa, Roberto; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Antonucci, Giorgio; Fimia, Gian Maria; Piacentini, Mauro

    2012-02-01

    The current anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, based on pegylated-interferon alpha and ribavirin, has limited success rate and is accompanied by several side effects. The aim of this study was to identify protein profiles in pretreatment liver biopsies of HCV patients correlating with the outcome of antiviral therapy. Cytosolic or membrane/organelle-enriched protein extracts from liver biopsies of eight HCV patients were analyzed by two-dimensional fluorescence difference gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry. Overall, this analysis identified 21 proteins whose expression levels correlate with therapy response. These factors are involved in interferon-mediated antiviral activity, stress response, and energy metabolism. Moreover, we found that post-translational modifications of dihydroxyacetone kinase were also associated with therapy outcome. Differential expression of the five best performing markers (STAT1, Mx1, DD4, DAK, and PD-ECGF) was confirmed by immunoblotting assays in an independent group of HCV patients. Finally, we showed that a prediction model based on the expression levels of these markers classifies responder and nonresponder patients with an accuracy of 85.7%. These results provide evidence that the analysis of pretreatment liver protein profiles is valuable for discriminating between responder and nonresponder HCV patients, and may contribute to reduce the number of nonresponder patients exposed to therapy-associated risks.

  7. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  8. Laboratory Diagnosis of Invasive Aspergillosis: From Diagnosis to Prediction of Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard C. Barton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Invasive aspergillosis (IA, an infection caused by fungi in the genus Aspergillus, is seen in patients with immunological deficits, particularly acute leukaemia and stem cell transplantation, and has been associated with high rates of mortality in previous years. Diagnosing IA has long been problematic owing to the inability to culture the main causal agent A. fumigatus from blood. Microscopic examination and culture of respiratory tract specimens have lacked sensitivity, and biopsy tissue for histopathological examination is rarely obtainable. Thus, for many years there has been a great interest in nonculture-based techniques such as the detection of galactomannan, β-D-glucan, and DNA by PCR-based methods. Recent meta-analyses suggest that these approaches have broadly similar performance parameters in terms of sensitivity and specificity to diagnose IA. Improvements have been made in our understanding of the limitations of antigen assays and the standardisation of PCR-based DNA detection. Thus, in more recent years, the debate has focussed on how these assays can be incorporated into diagnostic strategies to maximise improvements in outcome whilst limiting unnecessary use of antifungal therapy. Furthermore, there is a current interest in applying these tests to monitor the effectiveness of therapy after diagnosis and predict clinical outcomes. The search for improved markers for the early and sensitive diagnosis of IA continues to be a challenge.

  9. Acute pyelonephritis: role of enhanced CT scan in the prediction of clinical outcome

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    Jo, Byung June; Kim, Ki Whang; Yu, Jeong Sik; Kim, Jai Keun; Yoon, Sang Wook; Ha, Sung Kyu; Park, Chong Hoon [Yonsei Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-04-01

    To correlate the CT findings of acute pyelonephritis with its outcome and with clinical data. Thirty five contrast enhanced CT scans in patients diagnosed as suffering from acute pyelonephritis were retrospectively analyzed. Findings based on the morphology of perfusion defect in the renal parenchyma were classified as normal, focal wedge, multifocal wedge, focal mass, or mixed form composed of wedge and mass. These findings were correlated with clinical data such as degree of fever, leukocytosis, the period after antibiotic treatment during which fever was reduced, and the presence of pyuria in each group Analysis was then performed. Perfusion defects were seen in 23 of 35 cases, and their morphology was classified as follow; focal wedge (n=2), multifocal wedge (n=8), focal mass (n=4), and mixed form (n=9). Twelve cases (34.3%) showed no perfusion defect. The duration of fever was significantly prolonged in patients with focal mass form (p < .05). There was no significant correlation between the morphology of perfusion defect, bilaterality, and other clinical factors. The present study shows that the clinical course of the focal mass form of perfusion defect, as seen on CT, is different from that of other types. CT could be effective in predicting clinical progress and the outcome of treatment in cases of acute pyelonephritis.

  10. Population-based Stroke Atlas for outcome prediction: method and preliminary results for ischemic stroke from CT.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wieslaw L Nowinski

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Knowledge of outcome prediction is important in stroke management. We propose a lesion size and location-driven method for stroke outcome prediction using a Population-based Stroke Atlas (PSA linking neurological parameters with neuroimaging in population. The PSA aggregates data from previously treated patients and applies them to currently treated patients. The PSA parameter distribution in the infarct region of a treated patient enables prediction. We introduce a method for PSA calculation, quantify its performance, and use it to illustrate ischemic stroke outcome prediction of modified Rankin Scale (mRS and Barthel Index (BI. METHODS: The preliminary PSA was constructed from 128 ischemic stroke cases calculated for 8 variants (various data aggregation schemes and 3 case selection variables (infarct volume, NIHSS at admission, and NIHSS at day 7, each in 4 ranges. Outcome prediction for 9 parameters (mRS at 7th, and mRS and BI at 30th, 90th, 180th, 360th day was studied using a leave-one-out approach, requiring 589,824 PSA maps to be analyzed. RESULTS: Outcomes predicted for different PSA variants are statistically equivalent, so the simplest and most efficient variant aiming at parameter averaging is employed. This variant allows the PSA to be pre-calculated before prediction. The PSA constrained by infarct volume and NIHSS reduces the average prediction error (absolute difference between the predicted and actual values by a fraction of 0.796; the use of 3 patient-specific variables further lowers it by 0.538. The PSA-based prediction error for mild and severe outcomes (mRS  =  [2]-[5] is (0.5-0.7. Prediction takes about 8 seconds. CONCLUSIONS: PSA-based prediction of individual and group mRS and BI scores over time is feasible, fast and simple, but its clinical usefulness requires further studies. The case selection operation improves PSA predictability. A multiplicity of PSAs can be computed independently for

  11. Outcomes and predictive factors of pediatric kidney transplants: an analysis of the Thai Transplant Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rianthavorn, Pornpimol; Kerr, Stephen J; Lumpaopong, Adisorn; Jiravuttipong, Apichat; Pattaragarn, Anirut; Tangnararatchakit, Kanchana; Avihingsanon, Yingyos; Thirakupt, Prapaipim; Sumethkul, Vasant

    2013-03-01

    As universal coverage for pediatric kidney transplantation (KT) was introduced in Thailand in 2008, the number of recipients has been increasing. We evaluated predictive factors for graft failure to understand how to improve clinical outcomes in these children. Using data obtained from the National Transplant registry, we assessed the risk of graft failure using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression. Altogether, 201 recipients aged <21 yr at the time of KT were studied. Living donors (LD) were significantly older than deceased donor (DD). Mean cold ischemia time of DD was 17 h. The mean donor glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 84.0 mL/min/1.73 m(2) . Induction immunosuppressive therapy was administered more frequently in DD than in LDKT. Delayed graft function (DGF) occurred in 36 transplants. Over 719 person years of follow-up, 42 graft failures occurred. Graft survival at one, three, and five yr post-transplant were 95%, 88% and 76%, respectively. Two factors independently predicted graft failure in multivariate analysis. The hazard ratios for graft failure in patients with DGF and in patients with donor GFR of ≤30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were 2.5 and 9.7, respectively. Pediatric recipients should receive the first priority for allografts from young DD with a good GFR, and DGF should be meticulously prevented.

  12. Accuracy of the DIBELS oral reading fluency measure for predicting third grade reading comprehension outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehrig, Alysia D; Petscher, Yaacov; Nettles, Stephen M; Hudson, Roxanne F; Torgesen, Joseph K

    2008-06-01

    We evaluated the validity of DIBELS (Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills) ORF (Oral Reading Fluency) for predicting performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT-SSS) and Stanford Achievement Test (SAT-10) reading comprehension measures. The usefulness of previously established ORF risk-level cutoffs [Good, R.H., Simmons, D.C., and Kame'enui, E.J. (2001). The importance and decision-making utility of a continuum of fluency-based indicators of foundational reading skills for third-grade high-stakes outcomes. Scientific Studies of Reading, 5, 257-288.] for third grade students were evaluated on calibration (n(S1)=16,539) and cross-validation (n(S2)=16,908) samples representative of Florida's Reading First population. The strongest correlations were the third (February/March) administration of ORF with both FCAT-SSS and SAT-10 (r(S)=.70-.71), when the three tests were administered concurrently. Recalibrated ORF risk-level cut scores derived from ROC (receiver-operating characteristic) curve analyses produced more accurate identification of true positives than previously established benchmarks. The recalibrated risk-level cut scores predict performance on the FCAT-SSS equally well for students from different socio-economic, language, and race/ethnicity categories.

  13. Multidetector-CT angiography in pulmonary embolism - can image parameters predict clinical outcome?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heyer, Christoph M.; Lemburg, Stefan P.; Nicolas, Volkmar; Roggenland, Daniela [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Universitaetsklinikum Bergmannsheil GmbH, Ruhr-University of Bochum, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Interventional Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Bochum (Germany); Knoop, Heiko [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Universitaetsklinikum Bergmannsheil GmbH, Medical Clinic III - Pneumology, Allergology, and Sleep Medicine, Bochum (Germany); Holland-Letz, Tim [Ruhr-University of Bochum, Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Bochum (Germany)

    2011-09-15

    To assess if pulmonary CT angiography (CTA) can predict outcome in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Retrospective analysis of CTA studies of patients with PE and documentation of pulmonary artery (PA)/aorta ratio, right ventricular (RV)/left ventricular (LV) ratio, superior vena cava (SVC) diameter, pulmonary obstruction index (POI), ventricular septal bowing (VSB), venous contrast reflux (VCR), pulmonary infarction and pleural effusion. Furthermore, duration of total hospital stay, necessity for/duration of ICU therapy, necessity for mechanical ventilation and mortality were recorded. Comparison was performed by logistic/linear regression analysis with significance at 5%. 152 patients were investigated. Mean duration of hospital stay was 21 {+-} 24 days. 66 patients were admitted to the ICU; 20 received mechanical ventilation. Mean duration of ICU therapy was 3 {+-} 8 days. Mortality rate was 8%. Significant positive associations of POI, VCR and pulmonary infarction with necessity for ICU therapy were shown. VCR was significantly associated with necessity for mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU treatment. Pleural effusions were significantly associated with duration of total hospital stay whereas the RV/LV ratio correlated with mortality. Selected CTA findings showed significant associations with the clinical course of PE and may thus be used as predictive parameters. (orig.)

  14. Large kidneys predict poor renal outcome in subjects with diabetes and chronic kidney disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vendrely Benoit

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Renal hypertrophy occurs early in diabetic nephropathy, its later value is unknown. Do large kidneys still predict poor outcome in patients with diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD? Methods Seventy-five patients with diabetes and CKD according to a Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR, by 51Cr-EDTA clearance below 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or an Albumin Excretion Rate above 30 mg/24 H, had an ultrasound imaging of the kidneys and were cooperatively followed during five years by the Diabetology and Nephrology departments of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Bordeaux. Results The patients were mainly men (44/75, aged 62 ± 13 yrs, with long-standing diabetes (duration:17 ± 9 yrs, 55/75 type 2, and CKD: initial GFR: 56.5 (8.5-209 mL/min/1.73 m2, AER: 196 (20-2358 mg/24 H. Their mean kidney lenght (108 ± 13 mm, 67-147 was correlated to the GFR (r = 0.23, p Conclusions Large kidneys still predict progression in advanced CKD complicating diabetes. In these patients, ultrasound imaging not only excludes obstructive renal disease, but also provides information on the progression of the renal disease.

  15. Predicting outcomes in organophosphate poisoning based on APACHE II and modified APACHE II scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eizadi-Mood, N; Saghaei, M; Jabalameli, M

    2007-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the scores of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and a modified APACHE II system (MAS), without parameters of biochemical tests; and to find prognostic value of individual elements of the APACHE II and MAS in predicting outcomes in organophosphate (OP) poisoning. Data were collected from 131 patients. The median (25th-75th percentiles) of APACHE II score for survivors without intubation were found to be lower than those of non survivors or survivors with intubation and ventilation, [4 (1-7); versus 17.5 (7.8-29), and 13.5 (7.8-16.3)]. Logistic regression analysis identified white blood cell (WBC), potassium, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), age and sodium in APACHE II; GCS and mean arterial pressure in MAS system as prognostically valuable. There was no statistically significance difference between APACHE II and MAS scores in terms of area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve [(0.902, 95% confidence interval: (0.837-0.947) for APACHE II), and (0.892, 95% confidence interval: (0.826-0.940) for MAS); P=0.74) to predict need for intubation. It is concluded usage of MAS facilitates the prognostication of the OP poisoned patients due to simplicity, less time-consuming and effectiveness in an emergency situation.

  16. Meditation-induced changes in high-frequency heart rate variability predict smoking outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Libby

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: High-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV is a measure of parasympathetic nervous system output that has been associated with enhanced self-regulation. Low resting levels of HF-HRV are associated with nicotine dependence and blunted stress-related changes in HF-HRV are associated with decreased ability to resist smoking. Meditation has been shown to increase HF-HRV. However, it is unknown whether tonic levels of HF-HRV or acute changes in HF-HRV during meditation predict treatment responses in addictive behaviors such as smoking cessation. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between HF-HRV and subsequent smoking outcomes. Methods: HF-HRV during resting baseline and during mindfulness meditation was measured within two weeks of completing a 4-week smoking cessation intervention in a sample of 31 community participants. Self-report measures of smoking were obtained at a follow up 17-weeks after the initiation of treatment. Results: Regression analyses indicated that individuals exhibiting acute increases in HF-HRV from resting baseline to meditation smoked fewer cigarettes at follow-up than those who exhibited acute decreases in HF-HRV (b=-4.94, p=.009. Conclusion: Acute changes in HF-HRV in response to meditation may be a useful tool to predict smoking cessation treatment response.

  17. Network-based survival analysis reveals subnetwork signatures for predicting outcomes of ovarian cancer treatment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    Full Text Available Cox regression is commonly used to predict the outcome by the time to an event of interest and in addition, identify relevant features for survival analysis in cancer genomics. Due to the high-dimensionality of high-throughput genomic data, existing Cox models trained on any particular dataset usually generalize poorly to other independent datasets. In this paper, we propose a network-based Cox regression model called Net-Cox and applied Net-Cox for a large-scale survival analysis across multiple ovarian cancer datasets. Net-Cox integrates gene network information into the Cox's proportional hazard model to explore the co-expression or functional relation among high-dimensional gene expression features in the gene network. Net-Cox was applied to analyze three independent gene expression datasets including the TCGA ovarian cancer dataset and two other public ovarian cancer datasets. Net-Cox with the network information from gene co-expression or functional relations identified highly consistent signature genes across the three datasets, and because of the better generalization across the datasets, Net-Cox also consistently improved the accuracy of survival prediction over the Cox models regularized by L(2 or L(1. This study focused on analyzing the death and recurrence outcomes in the treatment of ovarian carcinoma to identify signature genes that can more reliably predict the events. The signature genes comprise dense protein-protein interaction subnetworks, enriched by extracellular matrix receptors and modulators or by nuclear signaling components downstream of extracellular signal-regulated kinases. In the laboratory validation of the signature genes, a tumor array experiment by protein staining on an independent patient cohort from Mayo Clinic showed that the protein expression of the signature gene FBN1 is a biomarker significantly associated with the early recurrence after 12 months of the treatment in the ovarian cancer patients who are

  18. Optic nerve magnetisation transfer ratio after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yejun; van der Walt, Anneke; Paine, Mark; Klistorner, Alexander; Butzkueven, Helmut; Egan, Gary F; Kilpatrick, Trevor J; Kolbe, Scott C

    2012-01-01

    Magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR) can reveal the degree of proton exchange between free water and macromolecules and was suggested to be pathological informative. We aimed to investigate changes in optic nerve MTR over 12 months following acute optic neuritis (ON) and to determine whether MTR measurements can predict clinical and paraclinical outcomes at 6 and 12 months. Thirty-seven patients with acute ON were studied within 2 weeks of presentation and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Assessments included optic nerve MTR, retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness, multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP) amplitude and latency and high (100%) and low (2.5%) contrast letter acuity. Eleven healthy controls were scanned twice four weeks apart for comparison with patients. Patient unaffected optic nerve MTR did not significantly differ from controls at any time-point. Compared to the unaffected nerve, affected optic nerve MTR was significantly reduced at 3 months (mean percentage interocular difference = -9.24%, p = 0.01), 6 months (mean = -12.48%, p<0.0001) and 12 months (mean = -7.61%, p = 0.003). Greater reduction in MTR at 3 months in patients was associated with subsequent loss of high contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.0003) and 12 (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.009) months, low contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.047) months, and RNFL thinning at 12 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.044) months. Stratification of individual patient MTR time courses based on flux over 12 months (stable, putative remyelination and putative degeneration) predicted RNFL thinning at 12 months (F(2,32) = 3.59, p = 0.02). In conclusion, these findings indicate that MTR flux after acute ON is predictive of axonal degeneration and visual disability outcomes.

  19. Optic nerve magnetisation transfer ratio after acute optic neuritis predicts axonal and visual outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yejun Wang

    Full Text Available Magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR can reveal the degree of proton exchange between free water and macromolecules and was suggested to be pathological informative. We aimed to investigate changes in optic nerve MTR over 12 months following acute optic neuritis (ON and to determine whether MTR measurements can predict clinical and paraclinical outcomes at 6 and 12 months. Thirty-seven patients with acute ON were studied within 2 weeks of presentation and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Assessments included optic nerve MTR, retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL thickness, multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP amplitude and latency and high (100% and low (2.5% contrast letter acuity. Eleven healthy controls were scanned twice four weeks apart for comparison with patients. Patient unaffected optic nerve MTR did not significantly differ from controls at any time-point. Compared to the unaffected nerve, affected optic nerve MTR was significantly reduced at 3 months (mean percentage interocular difference = -9.24%, p = 0.01, 6 months (mean = -12.48%, p<0.0001 and 12 months (mean = -7.61%, p = 0.003. Greater reduction in MTR at 3 months in patients was associated with subsequent loss of high contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.60, p = 0.0003 and 12 (ρ = 0.44, p = 0.009 months, low contrast letter acuity at 6 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.047 months, and RNFL thinning at 12 (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.044 months. Stratification of individual patient MTR time courses based on flux over 12 months (stable, putative remyelination and putative degeneration predicted RNFL thinning at 12 months (F(2,32 = 3.59, p = 0.02. In conclusion, these findings indicate that MTR flux after acute ON is predictive of axonal degeneration and visual disability outcomes.

  20. Network-based survival analysis reveals subnetwork signatures for predicting outcomes of ovarian cancer treatment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    Full Text Available Cox regression is commonly used to predict the outcome by the time to an event of interest and in addition, identify relevant features for survival analysis in cancer genomics. Due to the high-dimensionality of high-throughput genomic data, existing Cox models trained on any particular dataset usually generalize poorly to other independent datasets. In this paper, we propose a network-based Cox regression model called Net-Cox and applied Net-Cox for a large-scale survival analysis across multiple ovarian cancer datasets. Net-Cox integrates gene network information into the Cox's proportional hazard model to explore the co-expression or functional relation among high-dimensional gene expression features in the gene network. Net-Cox was applied to analyze three independent gene expression datasets including the TCGA ovarian cancer dataset and two other public ovarian cancer datasets. Net-Cox with the network information from gene co-expression or functional relations identified highly consistent signature genes across the three datasets, and because of the better generalization across the datasets, Net-Cox also consistently improved the accuracy of survival prediction over the Cox models regularized by L(2 or L(1. This study focused on analyzing the death and recurrence outcomes in the treatment of ovarian carcinoma to identify signature genes that can more reliably predict the events. The signature genes comprise dense protein-protein interaction subnetworks, enriched by extracellular matrix receptors and modulators or by nuclear signaling components downstream of extracellular signal-regulated kinases. In the laboratory validation of the signature genes, a tumor array experiment by protein staining on an independent patient cohort from Mayo Clinic showed that the protein expression of the signature gene FBN1 is a biomarker significantly associated with the early recurrence after 12 months of the treatment in the ovarian cancer patients who are

  1. Radical prostatectomy and positive surgical margins: tumor volume and Gleason score predicts cancer outcome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Roca, Ricardo L.R. Felts de, E-mail: Ricardo@delarocaurologia.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Fonseca, Francisco Paula da, E-mail: fpf@uol.com.br [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Divisao de Urologia. Dept. de Cirurgia Pelvica; Cunha, Isabela Werneck da; Bezerra, Stephania Martins, E-mail: iwerneck@gmail.com, E-mail: stephaniab@gmail.com [Hospital do Cancer A.C. Camargo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Dept. de Patologia

    2013-07-01

    Introduction: positive surgical margins (PSMs) are common adverse factors to predict the outcome of a patient submitted to radical prostatectomy (PR). However, not all of these men will follow with biochemical (BCR) or clinical (CR) recurrence. Relationship between PSMs with these recurrent events has to be correlated with other clinicopathological findings in order to recognize more aggressive tumors in order to recommend complementary treatment to these selected patients. Materials and methods: we retrospectively reviewed the outcome of 228 patients submitted to open retropubic RP between March 1991 and June 2008, where 161 had and 67 did not have PSMs. Minimum follow-up time was considered 2 years after surgery. BCR was considered when PSA {>=} 0.2 ng/ml. CR was determined when clinical evidence of tumor appeared. Chi-square test was used to correlate clinical and pathologic variables with PSMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BCR and CR in presence of PSMs was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared to log-rank tests. Results: from the total of 228 patients, 161 (71%) had PSMs, while 67 (29%) had negative surgical margins (NSMs). Prostatic circumferential margin was the most common (43.4%) site. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant (p < 0.001) associations between the presence of PSMs and BCR, but not with CR (p = 0.06). Among 161 patients with PSMs, 61 (37.8%) presented BCR, while 100 (62.8%) did not. Predicting progression-free survival for 5 years, BCR was correlated with pathological stage; Gleason score; pre-treatment PSA; tumor volume in specimen; capsular and perineural invasion; presence and number of PSMs. RC correlated only with angiolymphatic invasion and Gleason score. Considering univariate analyses the clinicopathological factors predicting BCR for 5 years, results statistically significant links with prostate weight; pre-treatment PSA; Gleason score; pathological stage; tumor volume; PSMs; capsular and perineural

  2. Sonographic prediction of outcome of vacuum deliveries: a multicenter, prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahrs, Birgitte H; Usman, Sana; Ghi, Tullio; Youssef, Aly; Torkildsen, Erik A; Lindtjørn, Elsa; Østborg, Tilde B; Benediktsdottir, Sigurlaug; Brooks, Lis; Harmsen, Lotte; Romundstad, Pål R; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Lees, Christoph C; Eggebø, Torbjørn M

    2017-07-01

    Safe management of the second stage of labor is of great importance. Unnecessary interventions should be avoided and correct timing of interventions should be focused. Ultrasound assessment of fetal position and station has a potential to improve the precision in diagnosing and managing prolonged or arrested labors. The decision to perform vacuum delivery is traditionally based on subjective assessment by digital vaginal examination and clinical expertise and there is currently no method of objectively quantifying the likelihood of successful delivery. Prolonged attempts at vacuum delivery are associated with neonatal morbidity and maternal trauma, especially so if the procedure is unsuccessful and a cesarean is performed. The aim of the study was to assess if ultrasound measurements of fetal position and station can predict duration of vacuum extractions, mode of delivery, and fetal outcome in nulliparous women with prolonged second stage of labor. We performed a prospective cohort study in nulliparous women at term with prolonged second stage of labor in 7 European maternity units from 2013 through 2016. Fetal head position and station were determined using transabdominal and transperineal ultrasound, respectively. Our preliminary clinical experience assessing head-perineum distance prior to vacuum delivery suggested that we should set 25 mm for the power calculation, a level corresponding roughly to +2 below the ischial spines. The main outcome was duration of vacuum extraction in relation to ultrasound measured head-perineum distance with a predefined cut-off of 25 mm, and 220 women were needed to discriminate between groups using a hazard ratio of 1.5 with 80% power and alpha 5%. Secondary outcomes were delivery mode and umbilical artery cord blood samples after birth. The time interval was evaluated using survival analyses, and the outcomes of delivery were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and descriptive statistics. Results were

  3. Individual prediction of chronic motor outcome in the acute post-stroke stage: Behavioral parameters versus functional imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, Anne K; Volz, Lukas J; Feis, Delia-Lisa; Eickhoff, Simon B; Fink, Gereon R; Grefkes, Christian

    2015-11-01

    Several neurobiological factors have been found to correlate with functional recovery after brain lesions. However, predicting the individual potential of recovery remains difficult. Here we used multivariate support vector machine (SVM) classification to explore the prognostic value of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to predict individual motor outcome at 4-6 months post-stroke. To this end, 21 first-ever stroke patients with hand motor deficits participated in an fMRI hand motor task in the first few days post-stroke. Motor impairment was quantified assessing grip force and the Action Research Arm Test. Linear SVM classifiers were trained to predict good versus poor motor outcome of unseen new patients. We found that fMRI activity acquired in the first week post-stroke correctly predicted the outcome for 86% of all patients. In contrast, the concurrent assessment of motor function provided 76% accuracy with low sensitivity (stroke), age, time post-stroke, lesion volume, and location were at 50%-chance-level. In conclusion, multivariate decoding of fMRI data with SVM early after stroke enables a robust prediction of motor recovery. The potential for recovery is influenced by the initial dysfunction of the active motor system, particularly in those patients whose outcome cannot be predicted by behavioral tests. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Pneumococcal pneumonia - Are the new severity scores more accurate in predicting adverse outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, C; Ladeira, I; Gaio, A R; Brito, M C

    2013-01-01

    The site-of-care decision is one of the most important factors in the management of patients with community-acquired pneumonia. The severity scores are validated prognostic tools for community-acquired pneumonia mortality and treatment site decision. The aim of this paper was to compare the discriminatory power of four scores - the classic PSI and CURB65 ant the most recent SCAP and SMART-COP - in predicting major adverse events: death, ICU admission, need for invasive mechanical ventilation or vasopressor support in patients admitted with pneumococcal pneumonia. A five year retrospective study of patients admitted for pneumococcal pneumonia. Patients were stratified based on admission data and assigned to low-, intermediate-, and high-risk classes for each score. Results were obtained comparing low versus non-low risk classes. We studied 142 episodes of hospitalization with 2 deaths and 10 patients needing mechanical ventilation and vasopressor support. The majority of patients were classified as low risk by all scores - we found high negative predictive values for all adverse events studied, the most negative value corresponding to the SCAP score. The more recent scores showed better accuracy for predicting ICU admission and need for ventilation or vasopressor support (mostly for the SCAP score with higher AUC values for all adverse events). The rate of all adverse outcomes increased directly with increasing risk class in all scores. The new gravity scores appear to have a higher discriminatory power in all adverse events in our study, particularly, the SCAP score. Copyright © 2012 Sociedade Portuguesa de Pneumologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  5. Protein phosphatase methylesterase-1 (PME-1) expression predicts a favorable clinical outcome in colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Elzagheid, Adam; Birkman, Eva-Maria; Avoranta, Tuulia; Kytölä, Ville; Korkeila, Eija; Syrjänen, Kari; Westermarck, Jukka; Sundström, Jari

    2015-12-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) accounts for high mortality. So far, there is lack of markers capable of predicting which patients are at risk of aggressive course of the disease. Protein phosphatase-2A (PP2A) inhibitor proteins have recently gained interest as markers of more aggressive disease in certain cancers. Here, we report the role of PP2A inhibitor PME-1 in CRC. PME-1 expression was assessed from a rectal cancer patient cohort by immunohistochemistry, and correlations were performed for various clinicopathological variables and patient survival. Rectal cancer patients with higher cytoplasmic PME-1 protein expression (above median) had less recurrences (P = 0.003, n = 195) and better disease-free survival (DFS) than the patients with low cytoplasmic PME-1 protein expression (below median). Analysis of PPME-1 mRNA expression from TCGA dataset of colon and rectal adenocarcinoma (COADREAD) patient cohort confirmed high PPME1 expression as an independent protective factor predicting favorable overall survival (OS) (P = 0.005, n = 396) compared to patients with low PPME1 expression. CRC cell lines were used to study the effect of PME-1 knockdown by siRNA on cell survival. Contrary to other cancer types, PME-1 inhibition in CRC cell lines did not reduce the viability of cells or the expression of active phosphorylated AKT and ERK proteins. In conclusion, PME-1 expression predicts for a favorable outcome of CRC patients. The unexpected role of PME-1 in CRC in contrast with the oncogenic role of PP2A inhibitor proteins in other malignancies warrants further studies of cancer-specific function for each of these proteins.

  6. The role of cervical Electrical Impedance Spectroscopy in the prediction of the course and outcome of induced labour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anumba Dilly OC

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous work by us and others had suggested that cervical electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS may be predictive of the outcome of induced labour. We sought to determine which probe configuration of the EIS device is predictive of the outcome of induced labour and compare this to digital assessment by the Bishop score. Methods In a prospective cohort of 205 women admitted for induction of labour, we used four probes of diameter 3, 6, 9 and 12 mm connected to an impedance meter to measure cervical resistivity (CR in Ohm.meters at 14 electrical frequencies and compared their values to digital assessment of the cervix by the Bishop score for the prediction of the outcome of induced labour. We tested the association of labour characteristics and outcomes with CR and Bishop score by stepwise multilinear regression analyses, and the accuracy of prediction of categorical clinical outcomes by analysis of the area under the curves (AUC of derived Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC curves. Results Of the four CR probe dimensions studied, only the 12 mm probe was predictive of any labour indices. In the frequency range 19 - 156 kHz, CR obtained with this probe was higher in women who delivered by caesarean section (CS than those who delivered vaginally, and in labours lasting > 24 hrs. Cervical resistivity at 78.1 kHz best predicted vaginal delivery [optimal cut-off 24 hrs [optimal cut-off 2.27 Ω.m, AUC 0.65 (95% CI 0.58, 0.72, sensitivity 71%, specificity 59%, LR+ 1.72, LR- 0.50, P 12 hours and induction-delivery interval Conclusion Cervical resistivity appears predictive of labour duration and delivery mode following induced labour. However the low predictive values obtained suggest that its current design proffers no immediate clinical utility.

  7. Using magnetic resonance imaging to predict new learning outcome at 5 years after childhood traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catroppa, Cathy; Anderson, Vicki; Ditchfield, Michael; Coleman, Lee

    2008-05-01

    Memory and learning entail the recruitment of a number of neural areas, including the medial temporal lobes, temporal association areas, and prefrontal cortices. This study examined the effects of injury severity on long-term memory function in 55 children who sustained traumatic brain injury 5 years earlier and compared this with 17 healthy controls. It also investigated cortical damage and diffuse axonal injury and their association to memory and learning outcomes 5 years after traumatic brain injury. Children were administered memory tests of increasing complexity. Results indicated that injury severity affected aspects of complex memory, with no significant influence on working memory; that focal cortical damage was not predictive of working or complex memory, whereas diffuse axonal injury predicted outcome on complex memory tasks. Findings suggest that the implementation of diffuse axonal injury as an index of injury may assist in predicting memory outcome after childhood traumatic brain injury.

  8. Preoperative neutrophil response as a predictive marker of clinical outcome following open heart surgery and the impact of leukocyte filtration.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Soo, Alan W

    2010-11-01

    Open heart surgery is associated with a massive systemic inflammatory response. Neutrophils, are the main mediator of this response. We hypothesised that the degree of neutrophil activation and inflammatory response to open heart surgery varies individually and correlates with clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to determine if individual clinical outcome can be predicted preoperatively through assessment of in-vitro stimulated neutrophil responses. Following that, the effects of neutrophil depletion through leukocyte filters are examined.

  9. Evaluation of two treatment outcome prediction models for restoration of visual fields in patients with postchiasmatic visual pathway lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gall, Carolin; Steger, Benedikt; Koehler, Juergen; Sabel, Bernhard A

    2013-09-01

    Visual functions of patients with visual field defects after acquired brain injury affecting the primary visual pathway can be improved by means of vision restoration training. Since the extent of the restored visual field varies between patients, the prediction of treatment outcome and its visualization may help patients to decide for or against participating in therapies aimed at vision restoration. For this purpose, two treatment outcome prediction models were established based on either self-organizing maps (SOMs) or categorical regression (CR) to predict visual field change after intervention by several features that were hypothesized to be associated with vision restoration. Prediction was calculated for visual field changes recorded with High Resolution Perimetry (HRP). Both models revealed a similar predictive quality with the CR model being slightly more beneficial. Predictive quality of the SOM model improved when using only a small number of features that exhibited a higher association with treatment outcome than the remaining features, i.e. neighborhood activity and homogeneity within the surrounding 5° visual field of a given position, together with its residual function and distance to the scotoma border. Although both models serve their purpose, these were not able to outperform a primitive prediction rule that attests the importance of areas of residual vision, i.e. regions with partial visual field function, for vision restoration.

  10. Defining and predicting outcomes of non-surgical periodontal treatment: a 1-yr follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baelum, Vibeke; López, Rodrigo

    2016-02-01

    This study reports on 1-yr outcomes of non-surgical periodontal therapy and compares predictive models resulting from different definitions of treatment success. A total of 149 participants, 30-70 yr of age, provided clinical periodontal data and data on sociodemographic status, health status, symptoms, and oral health-care behaviors at baseline. One week later, clinical attachment level and probing pocket depth were recorded again in 148 patients. Participants underwent non-surgical periodontal therapy, including scaling and root planing, during three to four clinical sessions. Three and 12 months later, clinical attachment level, probing pocket depth, and bleeding on probing (BOP) were recorded in 141 and 137 participants, respectively. Using test-retest data, patients were classified as having 'downhill', 'stable', or 'improved' results on three clinical attachment level and three probing pocket depth outcomes, and their classification was found to vary considerably according to outcome. Although the predictors of treatment outcome varied depending on the variable chosen to represent the treatment outcome, some predictors were more commonly noted as predicting improvement, namely a high baseline percentage of sites with subgingival calculus and the presence of suppuration at baseline. The latter was, however, also predictive for tooth loss during the study. Our findings underline the need for uniformity in defining the outcomes in trials of periodontal therapy.

  11. Autoreactive T Cells in Human Smokers Is Predictive of Clinical Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang eXu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Cross-sectional studies have suggested a role for activation of adaptive immunity in smokers with emphysema, but the clinical application of these findings has not been explored. Here we examined the utility of detecting autoreactive T cells as a screening tool for emphysema in an at-risk population of smokers. We followed 156 former and current (ever-smokers for two years to assess whether peripheral blood CD4 T cell cytokine responses to lung elastin fragments (EFs could discriminate between those with and without emphysema, and to evaluate the relevance of autoreactive T cells to predict changes during follow-up in lung physiological parameters. Volunteers underwent baseline complete phenotypic assessment with pulmonary function tests, quantitative chest CT, yearly six minutes walk distance (6MWD testing, and annual measurement of CD4 T cell cytokine responses to EFs. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict emphysema for interferon gamma (IFN-γ, and interleukin 6 (IL-6 responses to EFs were 0.81 (95% CI of 0.74 to 0.88 and 0.79 (95% CI of 0.72 to 0.86 respectively. We developed a dual cytokine enzyme-linked immunocell spot assay, the γ-6 Spot, using CD4 T cell IFN-γ and IL-6 responses and found that it discriminated emphysema with 90% sensitivity. After adjusting for potential confounders, the presence of autoreactive T cells was predictive of a decrease in 6MWD over two years (decline in 6MWD, -19 meters (m per fold change in IFN-γ; P=0.026, and -26 m per fold change in IL-6; P=0.003. These findings collectively suggest that the EF specific autoreactive CD4 T cell assay, γ-6 Spot, could provide a non-invasive diagnostic tool with potential application to large-scale screening to discriminate emphysema in ever-smokers, and predict early relevant physiological outcomes in those at risk.

  12. Connectedness to the criminal community and the community at large predicts 1-year post-release outcomes among felony offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folk, Johanna B; Mashek, Debra; Tangney, June; Stuewig, Jeffrey; Moore, Kelly E

    2016-04-01

    Connectedness to one's community relates to positive psychological and behavioral outcomes. But what implications do connectedness to distinct communities-the criminal community and the community at large-have for inmates about to be released from jail? This study (N = 383) prospectively examined connectedness to the criminal community and community at large prior to release from jail, and functioning at one-year post-release. Connectedness to the community at large positively predicted community adjustment whereas connectedness to the criminal community positively predicted recidivism. Targeting both types of community connectedness may enhance interventions intended to undermine recidivism and increase positive outcomes for inmates.

  13. Impaired High-Density Lipoprotein Anti-Oxidant Function Predicts Poor Outcome in Critically Ill Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lore Schrutka

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress affects clinical outcome in critically ill patients. Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL particles generally possess anti-oxidant capacities, deleterious properties of HDL have been described in acutely ill patients. The impact of anti-oxidant HDL capacities on clinical outcome in critically ill patients is unknown. We therefore analyzed the predictive value of anti-oxidant HDL function on mortality in an unselected cohort of critically ill patients.We prospectively enrolled 270 consecutive patients admitted to a university-affiliated intensive care unit (ICU and determined anti-oxidant HDL function using the HDL oxidant index (HOI. Based on their HOI, the study population was stratified into patients with impaired anti-oxidant HDL function and the residual study population.During a median follow-up time of 9.8 years (IQR: 9.2 to 10.0, 69% of patients died. Cox regression analysis revealed a significant and independent association between impaired anti-oxidant HDL function and short-term mortality with an adjusted HR of 1.65 (95% CI 1.22-2.24; p = 0.001 as well as 10-year mortality with an adj. HR of 1.19 (95% CI 1.02-1.40; p = 0.032 when compared to the residual study population. Anti-oxidant HDL function correlated with the amount of oxidative stress as determined by Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (r = 0.38; p<0.001.Impaired anti-oxidant HDL function represents a strong and independent predictor of 30-day mortality as well as long-term mortality in critically ill patients.

  14. Soluble Co-Signaling Molecules Predict Long-Term Graft Outcome in Kidney-Transplanted Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendreras, Susana G.; Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Menéndez, Aurora; Bravo-Mendoza, Cristina; González-Vidal, Ana; Coto, Eliecer; Díaz-Corte, Carmen; Ruiz-Ortega, Marta; López-Larrea, Carlos; Suárez-Álvarez, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    Co-signaling molecules are responsible for full T-cell activation after solid organ transplantation. Their increased expression can lead to the release of a soluble form that can modulate the immune response post-transplantation. We analyzed the presence of co-signaling molecules (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137, sCTLA-4, sCD80, sCD28, sCD40L, sPD-1, and sPD-L1) in serum from kidney-transplanted patients (n = 59) obtained at different times (before transplantation, and 15 days, 3 months and 1 year post-transplantation) and their contribution to graft outcome was evaluated using principal component analysis. Before transplantation, high levels of soluble co-signaling molecules (mainly sCD30, sCD137 and sCD40) were detected in all patients. These molecules were modulated soon after receiving an allograft but never attained similar levels to those of healthy controls. A signature based on the determination of six soluble co-stimulatory (sCD30, sCD40, sCD137 and sCD40L) and co-inhibitory (sPD-1 and sPD-L1) molecules at 3 months post-transplantation allowed a group of patients to be identified (27.12%) with a worse long-term graft outcome. Patients with high levels of soluble molecules showed a progressive and gradual deterioration of kidney function (increased creatinine and proteinuria levels and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate) over time and a higher risk of graft loss at 6 years post-transplantation than patients with low levels of these molecules (62.55% versus 5.14%, pmolecules in kidney-transplanted patients whose quantification at 3 months post-transplantation might be a useful biomarker of immune status and help to predict long-term graft evolution. PMID:25478957

  15. Inflammatory and metalloproteinases profiles predict three-month poor outcomes in ischemic stroke treated with thrombolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Anna Maria; Giusti, Betti; Piccardi, Benedetta; Nencini, Patrizia; Palumbo, Vanessa; Nesi, Mascia; Nucera, Antonia; Pracucci, Giovanni; Tonelli, Paolina; Innocenti, Eleonora; Sereni, Alice; Sticchi, Elena; Toni, Danilo; Bovi, Paolo; Guidotti, Mario; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Consoli, Domenico; Micieli, Giuseppe; Tassi, Rossana; Orlandi, Giovanni; Sessa, Maria; Perini, Francesco; Delodovici, Maria Luisa; Zedde, Maria Luisa; Massaro, Francesca; Abbate, Rosanna; Inzitari, Domenico

    2017-09-01

    Inflammatory mediators and metalloproteinases are altered in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and play a detrimental effect on clinical severity and hemorrhagic transformation of the ischemic brain lesion. Using data from the Italian multicenter observational MAGIC (MArker bioloGici nell'Ictus Cerebrale) Study, we evaluated the effect of inflammatory and metalloproteinases profiles on three-month functional outcome, hemorrhagic transformation and mortality in 327 patients with AIS treated with intravenous thrombolys in according to SITS-MOST (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-MOnitoring STudy) criteria. Circulating biomarkers were assessed at baseline and 24 h after thrombolysis. Adjusting for age, sex, baseline glycemia and National Institute of Health Stroke Scale, history of atrial fibrillation or congestive heart failure, and of inflammatory diseases or infections, baseline alpha-2macroglobulin (A2M), baseline serum amyloid protein (SAP) and pre-post tissue-plasminogen activator (tPA) variations (Δ) of metalloproteinase 9, remained significantly and independently associated with three-month death [OR (95% CI):A2M:2.99 (1.19-7.53); SAP:5.46 (1.64-18.74); Δmetalloproteinase 9:1.60 (1.12-2.27)]. The addition of baseline A2M and Δmetalloproteinase 9 or baseline SAP and Δmetalloproteinase 9 (model-2 or model-3) to clinical variables (model-1) significantly improved the area under curve for prediction of death [model-2 with A2M: p = 0.0205; model-3 with SAP: p = 0.001]. In conclusion, among AIS patients treated with thrombolysis, circulating A2M, SAP and Δmetalloproteinase 9 are independent markers of poor outcome. These results may prompt controlled clinical research about agents antagonizing their effect.

  16. Using Post-Traumatic Amnesia To Predict Outcome after Traumatic Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponsford, Jennie L; Spitz, Gershon; McKenzie, Dean

    2016-06-01

    Duration of post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) has emerged as a strong measure of injury severity after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Despite the growing international adoption of this measure, there remains a lack of consistency in the way in which PTA duration is used to classify severity of injury. This study aimed to establish the classification of PTA that would best predict functional or productivity outcomes. We conducted a cohort study of 1041 persons recruited from inpatient admissions to a TBI rehabilitation center between 1985 and 2013. Participants had a primary diagnosis of TBI, emerged from PTA before discharge from inpatient hospital, and engaged in productive activities before injury. Eight models that classify duration of PTA were evaluated-six that were based on the literature and two that were statistically driven. Models were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as well as model-based Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. All categorization models showed longer PTA to be associated with a greater likelihood of being nonproductive at 1 year after TBI. Classification systems with a greater number of categories performed better than two-category systems. The dimensional (continuous) form of PTA resulted in the greatest AUC, and lowest AIC as well as BIC, of the classification systems examined. This finding indicates that the greatest accuracy in prognosis is likely to be achieved using PTA as a continuous variable. This enables the probability of productive outcomes to be estimated with far greater precision than that possible using a classification system. Categorizing PTA to classify severity of injury may be reducing the precision with which clinicians can plan the treatment of patients after TBI.

  17. Hemolytic uremic syndrome in children:some predictive findings on the disease outcome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Banihashemi Kambiz; Naeeni KMohammad; Yasseri Mehdi; Ghasemi Saeed; Abutalebi Roba-beh; Pourkhani Maryam

    2008-01-01

    Objective:To decrease or delay the major un-wanted clinical consequences to improve the quality of life in the involved patients.Methods:A retrospective case series study has been made on the forty five pediatric pa-tients admitted to nephrology department of Ali-Asghar Hospital during a period of nearly 10 years.The pa-tients have been divided into two groups of good and poor prognoses according to their clinical outcomes.The routine laboratory records and clinical manifestations extracted and statistically analyzed as independent varia-bles both by univariate and multivariate methods.Results:Forty three patients have been managed successful-ly with only two deaths occurred.According to clinical findings,nineteen patients were classified as poor prog-nosis and the rest were categorized as good prognosis.Multivariate statistical analyses showed that lesser age at the time of admission (age 15 000,P<0.226)were well-interrelated to ominous clinical consequences like convulsion,coma and peritonitis and statistically different between the two groups of patients.Conclusion:Despite the importance of predictive var-iables in the course of Hemolytic uremic syndrome(HUS)in children and their critical influence on the clinical outcome,many aspects of these parameters have been remained to be elucidated comprehensively.Our study showed that simultaneous low age of child at the time of admission with simultaneous high WBC count will re-sult in the poorer prognoses of the patients.This may warn the clinicians to provide more supportive cares for this group of patients.

  18. Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) Score Independently Predicts Poor Outcome in Isolated Traumatic Brain Injury.

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    Jacome, Tomas; Tatum, Danielle

    2017-05-25

    Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is frequently observed after various types of acute cerebral injury and has been linked to clinical deterioration in non-traumatic brain injury (TBI). SIRS scores have also been shown to be predictive of length of stay and mortality in trauma patients. We aimed to determine the prognostic utility of SIRS present at admission in trauma patients with isolated TBI. This was a 5-year retrospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years) with isolated TBI admitted to a Level II trauma center. The prognostic value of SIRS, total SIRS scores, and each SIRS criterion was examined by Χ (2) and logistic regression analyses. Of the 330 patients identified, 50 (15.2%) met SIRS criteria. SIRS was significantly associated with poor outcome (P SIRS score of 2 on admission (P = 0.007) and increased significantly to 6.5 times in patients with a SIRS score of 3 (P = 0.002). Logistic regression demonstrated SIRS and each criterion to be significant independent prognostic factors (SIRS, P = 0.030; body temperature, P = 0.006; tachypnea, P = 0.022, tachycardia P = 0.023). SIRS at admission is an independent predictor of poor outcome in isolated TBI patients. These data demonstrate SIRS to be an important clinical tool that may be used in facilitating prognostication, particularly in elderly trauma patients. Future prospective studies aimed at therapeutic interventions to mitigate SIRS in TBI patients are warranted. Prognostic, Level III.

  19. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development of prognostic scores based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raj, Rahul; Siironen, Jari; Kivisaari, Riku; Hernesniemi, Juha; Skrifvars, Markus B

    2014-10-15

    Prediction models are important tools for heterogeneity adjustment in clinical trials and for the evaluation of quality of delivered care to patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to improve the predictive performance of the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials) prognostic model by combining it with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) for 6-month outcome prediction in patients with TBI treated in the intensive care unit. A total of 890 patients with TBI admitted to a large urban level 1 trauma center in 2009-2012 comprised the study population. The IMPACT and the APACHE II scores were combined using binary logistic regression. A randomized, split-sample technique with secondary bootstrapping was used for model development and internal validation. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (by area under the curve [AUC]), calibration, precision, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Overall 6-month mortality was 22% and unfavorable neurological outcome 47%. The predictive power of the new combined IMPACT-APACHE II models was significantly superior, compared to the original IMPACT models (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.84-0.85; p0.05). However, NRI showed a significant improvement in risk stratification of patients with unfavorable outcome by the IMPACT-APACHE II models, compared to the original models (NRI, 5.4-23.2%; pAPACHE II with the IMPACT, improved 6-month outcome predictive performance is achieved. This may be applicable for heterogeneity adjustment in forthcoming TBI studies.

  20. A new nomogram for prediction of outcome of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogan, Hasan Serkan; Altan, Mesut; Citamak, Burak; Bozaci, Ali Cansu; Karabulut, Erdem; Tekgul, Serdar

    2015-04-01

    Despite the fact that shock-wave lithotripsy (SWL) remains a very good treatment option for smaller stones, it is being challenged by endourologic treatment modalities, which offer similar or even higher success rates in a shorter time, with minimal morbidity and invasiveness. The present study aimed to bring a new and practical insight in order to predict the outcomes of pediatric SWL and to provide objective information about pediatric SWL outcomes. To design a nomogram for predicting the outcomes of pediatric shock-wave lithotripsy. The study was conducted with a retrospective design and included 402 renal units who underwent SWL between January 2009 and August 2013. Patients with known cystine stone disease and cystinuria, with internal or external urinary diversion, were excluded. Analysis was performed on 383 renal units. Postoperative imaging was performed by plain abdominal graphy and ultrasonography with 3-month intervals. Patients who were completely free of stones were considered to be a success and statistical analysis was done regardingly Multivariate analysis was conducted by logistic regression analysis and a nomogram was developed. The male/female distribution was 216/167, with a mean age of 48 ± 40 months and a mean stone size of 9 ± 3.5 mm. The overall stone-free rate was 70% (270/383) and efficacy quotient was 0.57. Mean follow-up was 11 ± 11 months (3-54 months). The number of shock waves and amplitude of energy were higher in failed cases. Multivariate analysis showed that gender, stone size, number of stones, age, location of the stone, and history of previous intervention were found to be the independent prognostic factors for assessing the stone clearance rates. A nomogram was developed using these parameters. In this nomogram, the points achieved from each parameter are summed and total points correspond to the risk of failure in percent. A previous nomogram study by Onal et al. showed that younger age (issue is concern about the

  1. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus Bm; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI), weight, and/or height. Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean) cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast(®) device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland). Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right), totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5-4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area). Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires. The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades) and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades). Compared with baseline, no patient's condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, Pcellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight, height, or age. Radial shock wave therapy is a safe and effective treatment option for cellulite. The individual clinical outcome cannot be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight

  2. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schlaudraff KU

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Kai-Uwe Schlaudraff,1 Maren C Kiessling,2 Nikolaus BM Császár,2 Christoph Schmitz21Concept Clinic, Geneva, Switzerland; 2Department of Anatomy II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, GermanyBackground: Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient's individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI, weight, and/or height.Methods: Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast® device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland. Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right, totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5–4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area. Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires.Results: The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades. Compared with baseline, no patient's condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, P<0

  3. A STUDY OF PREDICTING THE NEED FOR VENTILATOR SUPPORT AND OUTCOME IN ORGANOPHOSPHORUS POISONING

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    Kalinga Bommankatte Eranaik

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Organophosphorus compound poisoning is the most common poisonings in India because of easy availability, often requiring ICU care and ventilator support. Clinical research has indicated that respiratory failure is the most important cause of death due to Organophosphorus poisoning. It results in respiratory muscle weakness, pulmonary oedema, respiratory depression, increased secretions and bronchospasm. These complications and death can be prevented with timely Institution of ventilator support. The aim of present study was to identify the factors and predicting the need for ventilator support and outcome. Aim of the Study- To predict the need for ventilator support and outcome in organophosphate poisoning. MATERIALS AND METHODS Seventy consecutive patients admitted with a history of organophosphorus poisoning at KIMS, Hubli were taken for study after considering the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Detailed history, confirmation of poisoning, examination and other than routine investigations serum pseudocholinesterase and arterial blood gas analysis was done. The severity of organophosphorus poisoning was graded as mild, moderate and severe based on the factors which influence the need for ventilator support. RESULTS This study was conducted in 70 patients, out of which 48 (68.6% were male patients and 22 (31.4% were female patients. Among them 37 (53% patients required ventilation and 33 (47% expired. Chlorpyrifos, Dichlorvos and Monocrotophos were most commonly consumed poisons. 74% patients who consumed these compounds required ventilator support and 73% patients expired. 100% of patients presented with pin point pupil, fasciculation score > 4, respiratory rate > 20, GCS score < 7 and severe grade of poisoning required ventilator support and pseudocholinesterase < 900 U/L, 70% of metabolic acidosis and atropine requirement more than 180 mg within 48 hours required ventilator support and associated with high mortality. CONCLUSION

  4. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

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    Yvonne Sofin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1% of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9% dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  5. Predicting Inpatient Detoxification Outcome of Alcohol and Drug Dependent Patients: The Influence of Sociodemographic Environment, Motivation, Impulsivity, and Medical Comorbidities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danker-Hopfe, Heidi; Gooren, Tina

    2017-01-01

    Aims. This prospective study aims to identify patient characteristics as predictors for treatment outcome during inpatient detoxification treatment for drug and alcohol dependent patients. Methods. A mixed gender sample of 832 consecutively admitted drug and alcohol dependent patients were interviewed by an experienced physician. The impact of a variety of factors concerning social environment, therapy motivation, impulsivity related variables, medical history, and addiction severity on treatment outcome was examined. Results. 525 (63.1%) of the patients completed detoxification treatment whereas 307 (36.9%) dropped out prematurely. Being female, living in a partnership, having children, being employed, and having good education were predictive for a positive outcome. Family, health, the fear of losing the job, prosecution, and emergency admission were significant motivational predictors for treatment outcome. Being younger, history of imprisonment, and the number of previous drop-outs were predictive for a negative outcome. Conclusions. Variables concerning social environment and the number of previous drop-outs have been identified as best predictors for treatment outcome. Socially stable patients benefit from the current treatment setting and treatment shall be adapted for patients with negative predictors. Treatment may consequently be tailored with respect to intervention type, duration, and intensity to improve the outcome for those patients that fulfil criteria with negative impact on treatment retention.

  6. Gene based therapies for kidney regeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Manoe J; Arcolino, Fanny O; Schoor, Perry; Kok, Robbert Jan; Mastrobattista, Enrico

    2016-11-05

    In this review we provide an overview of the expanding molecular toolbox that is available for gene based therapies and how these therapies can be used for a large variety of kidney diseases. Gene based therapies range from restoring gene function in genetic kidney diseases to steering complex molecular pathways in chronic kidney disorders, and can provide a treatment or cure for diseases that otherwise may not be targeted. This approach involves the delivery of recombinant DNA sequences harboring therapeutic genes to improve cell function and thereby promote kidney regeneration. Depending on the therapy, the recombinant DNA will express a gene that directly plays a role in the function of the cell (gene addition), that regulates the expression of an endogenous gene (gene regulation), or that even changes the DNA sequence of endogenous genes (gene editing). Some interventions involve permanent changes in the genome whereas others are only temporary and leave no trace. Efficient and safe delivery are important steps for all gene based therapies and also depend on the mode of action of the therapeutic gene. Here we provide examples on how the different methods can be used to treat various diseases, which technologies are now emerging (such as gene repair through CRISPR/Cas9) and what the opportunities, perspectives, potential and the limitations of these therapies are for the treatment of kidney diseases.

  7. Prediction of outcome in neurogenic oropharyngeal dysphagia within 72 hours of acute stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ickenstein, Guntram W; Höhlig, Carolin; Prosiegel, Mario; Koch, Horst; Dziewas, Rainer; Bodechtel, Ulf; Müller, Rainer; Reichmann, Heinz; Riecker, Axel

    2012-10-01

    Stroke is the most frequent cause of neurogenic oropharyngeal dysphagia (NOD). In the acute phase of stroke, the frequency of NOD is greater than 50% and, half of this patient population return to good swallowing within 14 days while the other half develop chronic dysphagia. Because dysphagia leads to aspiration pneumonia, malnutrition, and in-hospital mortality, it is important to pay attention to swallowing problems. The question arises if a prediction of severe chronic dysphagia is possible within the first 72 hours of acute stroke. On admission to the stroke unit, all stroke patients were screened for swallowing problems by the nursing staff within 2 hours. Patients showing signs of aspiration were included in the study (n = 114) and were given a clinical swallowing examination (CSE) by the swallowing/speech therapist within 24 hours and a swallowing endoscopy within 72 hours by the physician. The primary outcome of the study was the functional communication measure (FCM) of swallowing (score 1-3, tube feeding dependency) on day 90. The grading system with the FCM swallowing and the penetration-aspiration scale (PAS) in the first 72 hours was tested in a multivariate analysis for its predictive value for tube feeding-dependency on day 90. For the FCM level 1 to 3 (P dysphagia scales to prevent aspiration pneumonia and malnutrition. A dysphagia program can lead to better communication within the stroke unit team to initiate the appropriate diagnostics and swallowing therapy as soon as possible. Copyright © 2012 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Co-morbidity, not age predicts adverse outcome in clostridium difficile colitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TS Dharmarajan; M Sipalay; R Shyamsundar; EP Norkus; CS Pitchumoni

    2000-01-01

    AIM To examine whether age alone or comorbidity is a risk factor for death in older adults who developed Clostridium difficile (Cd)colitis during hospitalization.METHODS A retrospective, observational study design was performed in our Lady of Mercy Medical Center, a 650-bed, urban,community-based, university-affiliated teaching hospital. 121 patients with a positive diagnosis of Cd colitis (aged 23- 97 years) were studied, and data pertinent to demographic variables,medical history, co-morbidity, physical examination, and laboratory results were collected. Age was examined as a continuous variable and stratified into Age1 (<80 vs 80 + );Age2 ( < 60, 60 - 69, 70 - 79 and 80 + ); or Age3 (< 60, 60 - 69, 70 - 79, 80 - 89, 90 + ).RESULTS Cd colitis occurs more frequently with advancing age (55% of cases >80 years).However, age, per se, had no effect on mortality. A history of cardiac disease (P= 0.036), recurrent or refractory infection >4 weeks (P--0.007), Iow serum total protein (P=0.034), Iow serum albumin (P=0.001),antibiotic use >4 weeks (P<0.010), use of over 4 antibiotics (P=0.026), and use of certain classes of antibiotics (P = 0.035 - 0.004) were predictive of death. Death was strongly predicted by the use of penicillin-like antibiotics plus clindamycin, in the presence of hypoalbuminemia, refractory sepsis, and cardiac disease ( P = 0.00005). CONCLUSION Cd colitis is common in the very old. However, unlike co-morbidity, age alone does not affect the clinical outcome (survival vs death).

  9. Predicting low back pain outcome following rehabilitation for low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Andrew J; Dew, Angela; Bridger, Robert; Etherington, John; Kilminster, Shaun

    2015-01-01

    Psychosocial factors are known to play a key role in determining the progress of back pain patients. However, it is not known whether these factors are applicable to military personnel, who tend to be fitter than the general population. The aim was to identify physical and psychological predictors in a prospective study of the outcome of back pain rehabilitation over 6 months and a longer follow-up time of between 15 and 32 months. Two hundred and fifty military personnel reporting for a residential rehabilitation programme completed a battery of physical and psychological tests. The physical tests included 800 m run time and the Biering-Sorensen test. The psychological/psychosocial measures included items on fear avoidance, self efficacy, anxiety and depression and occupational psychosocial factors such as job satisfaction. Self efficacy and 800 m run time predicted self-reported functional ability at 6 months and medical discharge/return to full fitness at 15–32 months. Patients with 800 m run times of more than 3 minutes 31 seconds had a four times greater chance of medical discharge from the Armed forces. Eight hundred metre run time and self-efficacy were independent predictors of both self-reported functional ability at 6 months and return to full fitness/medical discharge at 15–32 months. Self-efficacy also predicted 40% of the variance in the intensity of back pain and 10% of other non-back pain. Rehabilitation should include greater emphasis on physical fitness and on improving self-efficacy.

  10. Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

    2015-12-01

    Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, "spam" filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the "barrier to entry" for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods--logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)--and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. ECG marker of adverse electrical remodeling post-myocardial infarction predicts outcomes in MADIT II study.

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    Larisa G Tereshchenko

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Post-myocardial infarction (MI structural remodeling is characterized by left ventricular dilatation, fibrosis, and hypertrophy of the non-infarcted myocardium. OBJECTIVE: The goal of our study was to quantify post-MI electrical remodeling by measuring the sum absolute QRST integral (SAI QRST. We hypothesized that adverse electrical remodeling predicts outcomes in MADIT II study participants. METHODS: Baseline orthogonal ECGs of 750 MADIT II study participants (448 [59.7%] ICD arm were analyzed. SAI QRST was measured as the arithmetic sum of absolute QRST integrals over all three orthogonal ECG leads. The primary endpoint was defined as sudden cardiac death (SCD or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT/ventricular fibrillation (VF with appropriate ICD therapies. All-cause mortality served as a secondary endpoint. RESULTS: Adverse electrical remodeling in post-MI patients was characterized by wide QRS, increased magnitudes of spatial QRS and T vectors, J-point deviation, and QTc prolongation. In multivariable Cox regression analysis after adjustment for age, QRS duration, atrial fibrillation, New York Heart Association heart failure class and blood urea nitrogen, SAI QRST predicted SCD/VT/VF (HR 1.33 per 100 mV*ms (95%CI 1.11-1.59; P = 0.002, and all-cause death (HR 1.27 per 100 mV*ms (95%CI 1.03-1.55, P = 0.022 in both arms. No interaction with therapy arm and bundle branch block (BBB status was found. CONCLUSIONS: In MADIT II patients, increased SAI QRST is associated with increased risk of sustained VT/VF with appropriate ICD therapies and all-cause death in both ICD and in conventional medical therapy arms, and in patients with and without BBB. Further studies of SAI QRST are warranted.

  12. Neuromagnetic index of hemispheric asymmetry predicting long-term outcome in sudden hearing loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lieber Po-Hung; Chen, Kuang-Chao; Lee, Po-Lei; Niddam, David M; Cheng, Chou-Ming; Chou, Chih-Cher; Hsieh, Jen-Chuen; Shiao, An-Suey

    2013-01-01

    The neuromagnetic index of hemispheric asymmetry in terms of ipsilateral/contralateral ratio at acute stage was previously revealed to prognosticate the 1-month hearing outcome of acute unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSNHL), showing a dynamic relationship between top- and down-levels of auditory pathway. However, the prognostic effect of reorganization pattern for the long-term results remained elusive. This study aimed to probe the prognosticating relevance of hemispheric asymmetry to the hearing at chronic stage of ISSNHL. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), inter-hemispheric differences in peak dipole of N100m responses to monaural tones were evaluated in 21 controls and 21 ISSNHL patients at initial and final (12 months later) stages. Predictive value of hemispheric asymmetry was assessed by correlating hearing level and ipsilateral/contralateral ratio (I/C) of N100m latency and amplitude. Healthy-side dominance of N100m was observed in ISSNHL initially, and remained in three final prognostic subgroups (complete, partial, and no recovery) of ISSNHL. The initial I/C(amplitude) on affected-ear stimulation strongly correlated with the hearing level of final stage in ISSNHL. However, there was no prognostic effect of hemispheric asymmetry pattern for the 12-month hearing improvement. The heterogeneity between neuromagnetic index and hearing levels possibly echoed different pathogeneses of ISSNHL. Since a restored hearing status did not necessarily lead toward a normal functional organization, the dynamics of hemispheric asymmetry could actually index a central resilient reorganization in the brain for sound processing in ISSNHL. Our finding showed not only a clinically relevant measure to predict final hearing of ISSNHL, but also a linkage between central plasticity and cochlear lesion. This finding suggests a new perspective, and perhaps new interventions, to diagnose and treat unilateral ISSNHL.

  13. Characterizing primary refractory neuroblastoma: prediction of outcome by microscopic image analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazi, M. Khalid Khan; Weiser, Daniel A.; Pawel, Bruce R.; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2015-03-01

    Neuroblastoma is a childhood cancer that starts in very early forms of nerve cells found in an embryo or fetus. It is a highly lethal cancer of sympathetic nervous system that commonly affects children of age five or younger. It accounts for a disproportionate number of childhood cancer deaths and remains a difficult cancer to eradicate despite intensive treatment that includes chemotherapy, surgery, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, radiation therapy and immunotherapy. A poorly characterized group of patients are the 15% with primary refractory neuroblastoma (PRN) which is uniformly lethal due to de novo chemotherapy resistance. The lack of response to therapy is currently assessed after multiple months of cytotoxic therapy, driving the critical need to develop pretreatment clinic-biological biomarkers that can guide precise and effective therapeutic strategies. Therefore, our guiding hypothesis is that PRN has distinct biological features present at diagnosis that can be identified for prediction modeling. During a visual analysis of PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, we observed that patients who survived for less than three years contained large eosin-stained structures as compared to those who survived for greater than three years. So, our hypothesis is that the size of eosin stained structures can be used as a differentiating feature to characterize recurrence in neuroblastoma. To test this hypothesis, we developed an image analysis method that performs stain separation, followed by the detection of large structures stained with Eosin. On a set of 21 PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, our image analysis method predicted the outcome with 85.7% accuracy.

  14. Validity of Outcome Prediction Scoring Systems in Korean Patients with Severe Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seunghyun; Yeo, Hye Ju; Yoon, Seong Hoon; Lee, Seung Eun; Cho, Woo Hyun; Jeon, Doo Soo; Kim, Yun Seong; Son, Bong Soo; Kim, Do Hyung

    2016-06-01

    Recently, several prognostic scoring systems for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have been published. The aim of this study was to validate the established scoring systems for outcome prediction in Korean patients. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 50 patients on ECMO therapy in our center from 2012 to 2014. A calculation of outcome prediction scoring tools was performed and the comparison across various models was conducted. In our study, the overall hospital survival was 46% and successful weaning rate was 58%. The Predicting Death for Severe ARDS on V-V ECMO (PRESERVE) score showed good discrimination of mortality prediction for patients on ECMO with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.90). The respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II score also showed fair prediction ability with AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.89) and AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.88), respectively. However, the ECMOnet score failed to predict mortality with AUC of 0.51 (95% CI 0.37-0.66). When evaluating the predictive accuracy according to optimal cut-off point of each scoring system, RESP score had a best specificity of 91.3% and 66.7% of sensitivity, respectively. This study supports the clinical usefulness of the prognostic scoring tools for severe ARDS with ECMO therapy when applying to the Korean patients receiving ECMO.

  15. Predicting outcome of trial of voiding without catheter in acute urinary retention with intravesical prostatic protrusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syazarina Sharis, Osman; Zulkifli, Md Zainuddin; Hamzaini, Abdul Hamid

    2013-01-01

    Acute urinary retention (AUR) is one of the most serious complications of benign prostatic hypertrophy. This study was done to predict the outcome of trial of voiding without catheter (TWOC) in patients with AUR with intravesical prostatic protrusion (IPP) detected on transabdominal ultrasound. Other factors such as prostatic volume and patient's age were also assessed. Patients with a first episode of AUR secondary to benign prostatic hypertrophy were assessed with ultrasound following bladder catheterization. The IPP was measured and graded (grade 1 is 5 mm or less, grade 2 is 5-10 mm and grade 3 is more than 10 mm). Success of TWOC was then correlated with the degree of IPP. A total of 32 patients with AUR were included in the study. Patients with grade 3 IPP were found to have a significant failure rate compared to grade 1 (P = 0.022) and grade 2 (P = 0.041). Intravesical prostatic protrusion is a useful predictor of success of TWOC in patients with AUR. Patients with grade 3 IPP on ultrasound would benefit from TWOC and warrant earlier definitive surgical treatment.

  16. Usefulness of two clinical chorioamnionitis definitions in predicting neonatal infectious outcomes: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila, Cecilia; Willins, Jennifer L; Jackson, Matthew; Mathai, Jacob; Jabsky, Marina; Kong, Alex; Callaghan, Fiona; Ishkin, Selda; Shroyer, A Laurie W

    2015-09-01

    To assess the usefulness of two definitions of acute clinical chorioamnionitis (ACCA) in predicting risk of neonatal infectious outcomes (NIO) and mortality, the first definition requiring maternal fever alone (Fever), and the second requiring ≥ 1 Gibbs criterion besides fever (Fever + 1). PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched from January 1, 1979 to April 9, 2013. Twelve studies were reviewed (of 316 articles identified): three studies with term patients, four with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) patients, and five mixed studies with mixed gestational ages and/or membrane status (intact and/or ruptured). Both definitions demonstrated an increased NIO risk for ACCA versus non-ACCA patients, with an odds ratio increase for the Fever + 1 definition that was about twofold larger than the Fever definition. As the Fever definition demonstrated increased NIO risk for ACCA versus non-ACCA patients, the Fever alone ACCA definition should be used to trigger future clinical treatment in many clinical situations. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  17. Boolean Network Model for Cancer Pathways: Predicting Carcinogenesis and Targeted Therapy Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumiã, Herman F.; Martins, Marcelo L.

    2013-01-01

    A Boolean dynamical system integrating the main signaling pathways involved in cancer is constructed based on the currently known protein-protein interaction network. This system exhibits stationary protein activation patterns – attractors – dependent on the cell's microenvironment. These dynamical attractors were determined through simulations and their stabilities against mutations were tested. In a higher hierarchical level, it was possible to group the network attractors into distinct cell phenotypes and determine driver mutations that promote phenotypic transitions. We find that driver nodes are not necessarily central in the network topology, but at least they are direct regulators of central components towards which converge or through which crosstalk distinct cancer signaling pathways. The predicted drivers are in agreement with those pointed out by diverse census of cancer genes recently performed for several human cancers. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that cell phenotypes can evolve towards full malignancy through distinct sequences of accumulated mutations. In particular, the network model supports routes of carcinogenesis known for some tumor types. Finally, the Boolean network model is employed to evaluate the outcome of molecularly targeted cancer therapies. The major find is that monotherapies were additive in their effects and that the association of targeted drugs is necessary for cancer eradication. PMID:23922675

  18. Gender, Ethnicity, and Their Intersectionality in the Prediction of Smoking Outcome Expectancies in Regular Cigarette Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Claudia G; Bello, Mariel S; Andrabi, Nafeesa; Pang, Raina D; Hendricks, Peter S; Bluthenthal, Ricky N; Leventhal, Adam M

    2016-01-01

    The current study utilized the intersectionality framework to explore whether smoking outcome expectancies (i.e., cognitions about the anticipated effects of smoking) were predicted by gender and ethnicity, and the gender-by-ethnicity interaction. In a cross-sectional design, daily smokers from the general community (32.2% women; non-Hispanic African American [n = 175], non-Hispanic White [n = 109], or Hispanic [n = 26]) completed self-report measures on smoking expectancies and other co-factors. Results showed that women reported greater negative reinforcement (i.e., anticipated smoking-induced negative affect reduction) and weight control (i.e., anticipated smoking-induced appetite/weight suppression) expectancies than men. Hispanic (vs. African American or White) smokers endorsed greater negative reinforcement expectancies. A gender-by-ethnicity interaction was found for weight control expectancies, such that White women reported greater weight control expectancies than White men, but no gender differences among African American and Hispanic smokers were found. These findings suggest that gender, ethnicity, and their intersectionality should be considered in research on cognitive mechanisms that may contribute to tobacco-related health disparities.

  19. Transthyretin Predicts Cardiovascular Outcome In Hemodialysis Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Type 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Henze

    2012-06-01

    A low TTR concentration was associated with an increased risk for CVE for the total study cohort (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.27-2.14, patients with BMI ≥23kg/m² (HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.22–2.37, albumin ≥3.8g/dL (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.17–2.42 and the combination of both (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.13-2.53. Additionally, a low TTR concentration predicted all-cause mortality for the total study cohort (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.43–2.24 and patients with BMI ≥23kg/m² (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.09–1.95. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that TTR is a useful predictor for cardiovascular outcome and mortality in hemodialysis patients. TTR was particularly useful in patients who were not identified to be at risk by BMI or albumin status.

  20. Coronary 64-slice CT angiography predicts outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaemperli, Oliver; Valenta, Ines; Schepis, Tiziano [University Hospital Zurich NUK C 32, Cardiovascular Center, Zurich (Switzerland); Husmann, Lars; Scheffel, Hans; Desbiolles, Lotus; Leschka, Sebastian; Alkadhi, Hatem [University Hospital Zurich, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Zurich (Switzerland); Kaufmann, Philipp A. [University Hospital Zurich NUK C 32, Cardiovascular Center, Zurich (Switzerland); University of Zurich, Zurich Center for Integrative Human Physiology (ZIHP), Zurich (Switzerland)

    2008-06-15

    The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of 64-slice CT angiography (CTA) in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Sixty-four-slice coronary CTA was performed in 220 patients [mean age 63 {+-} 11 years, 77 (35%) female] with known or suspected CAD. CTA images were analyzed with regard to the presence and number of coronary lesions. Patients were followed-up for the occurrence of the following clinical endpoints: death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and coronary revascularization. During a mean follow-up of 14 {+-} 4 months, 59 patients (27%) reached at least one of the predefined clinical endpoints. Patients with abnormal coronary arteries on CTA (i.e., presence of coronary plaques) had a 1st-year event rate of 34%, whereas in patients with normal coronary arteries no events occurred (event rate, 0%, p < 0.001). Similarly, obstructive lesions ({>=}50% luminal narrowing) on CTA were associated with a high first-year event rate (59%) compared to patients without stenoses (3%, p < 0.001). The presence of obstructive lesions was a significant independent predictor of an adverse cardiac outcome. Sixty-four-slice CTA predicts cardiac events in patients with known or suspected CAD. Conversely, patients with normal coronary arteries on CTA have an excellent mid-term prognosis. (orig.)

  1. Attention deficits predict phenotypic outcomes in syndrome-specific and domain-specific ways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim eCornish

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Attentional difficulties, both at home and in the classroom, are reported across a number of neurodevelopmental disorders. However, exactly how attention influences early socio-cognitive learning remains unclear. We addressed this question both concurrently and longitudinally in a cross-syndrome design, with respect to the communicative domain of vocabulary and to the cognitive domain of early literacy, and then extended the analysis to social behavior. Participants were young children (aged 4 to 9 years at Time 1 with either Williams syndrome (WS, N=26 or Down syndrome (DS, N=26 and typically developing controls (N=103. Children with WS displayed significantly greater attentional deficits (as indexed by teacher report of behavior typical of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD than children with DS, but both groups had greater attentional problems than the controls. Despite their attention differences, children with DS and those with WS were equivalent in their cognitive abilities of reading single words, both at Time 1 and 12 months later, at Time 2, although they differed in their early communicative abilities in terms of vocabulary. Greater ADHD-like behaviors predicted poorer subsequent literacy for children with DS, but not for children with WS, pointing to syndrome-specific attentional constraints on specific aspects of early development. Overall, our findings highlight the need to investigate more precisely whether and, if so, how, syndrome-specific profiles of behavioral difficulties constrain learning and socio-cognitive outcomes across different domains.

  2. Serum Lactate Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients With and Without Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oedorf, Kimie; Day, Danielle E.; Lior, Yotam; Novack, Victor; Sanchez, Leon D.; Wolfe, Richard E.; Kirkegaard, Hans; Shapiro, Nathan I.; Henning, Daniel J.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Lactate levels are increasingly used to risk stratify emergency department (ED) patients with and without infection. Whether a serum lactate provides similar prognostic value across diseases is not fully elucidated. This study assesses the prognostic value of serum lactate in ED patients with and without infection to both report and compare relative predictive value across etiologies. Methods We conducted a prospective, observational study of ED patients displaying abnormal vital signs (AVS) (heart rate ≥130 bpm, respiratory rate ≥24 bpm, shock index ≥1, and/or systolic blood pressure 4.0mmol/L. Trended stratified lactate levels were associated with deterioration for both infected (pinfected (p 4mmol/L was an independent predictor of deterioration for patients with infection (OR 4.8, 95% CI: 1.7 – 14.1) and without infection (OR 4.4, 1.7 – 11.5). Conclusion Lactate levels can risk stratify patients with AVS who have increased risk of adverse outcomes regardless of infection status.

  3. Prediction of the potential clinical outcomes for post-resuscitated patients after cardiac arrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Sungmin; Kwon, Bojun; Yun, Il Dong; Lee, Sang Uk; Kim, Kyuseok; Kim, Joonghee

    2013-02-01

    Cerebral injuries after cardiac arrest are serious causes for morbidity. Many previous researches in the medical society have been proposed to prognosticate the functional recoveries of post-resuscitated patients after cardiac arrest, but the validity of suggested features and the automation of prognostication have not been made yet. This paper presents the automatic classification method which predicts the potential clinical outcomes of post-resuscitated patients who suffered from cardiac arrest. The global features and the local features are adapted from the researches from the medical society. The global features, which are consisted of the percentage of the partial volume under the uniformly increasing thresholds, represent the global tendency of apparent diffusion coefficient value in a DWI. The local features are localized and measured on the refined local apparent diffusion coefficient minimal points. The local features represent the ischemic change of small areas in a brain. The features are trained and classified by the random forest method, which have been widely used in the machine learning society for classification. The validity of features is automatically evaluated during the classification process. The proposed method achieved the 0.129 false-positive rate while maintaining the perfect true-positive rate. The area-under-curve of the proposed method was 0.9516, which showed the feasibility and the robustness of the proposed method.

  4. Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus-2 suppression with pritelivir predicts trial outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Joshua T.; Swan, David A.; Magaret, Amalia; Corey, Lawrence; Wald, Anna; Ossig, Joachim; Ruebsamen-Schaeff, Helga; Stoelben, Susanne; Timmler, Burkhard; Zimmermann, Holger; Melhem, Murad R.; Van Wart, Scott A.; Rubino, Christopher M.; Birkmann, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models estimate the potency of antiviral agents but do not capture viral and immunologic factors that drive the natural dynamics of infection. We designed a mathematical model that synthesizes pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and viral pathogenesis concepts to simulate the activity of pritelivir, a DNA helicase-primase inhibitor that targets herpes simplex virus. Our simulations recapitulate detailed viral kinetic shedding features in five dosage arms of a phase 2 clinical trial. We identify that in vitro estimates of EC50 are lower than in vivo values for the drug. Nevertheless, pritelivir potently decreases shedding at appropriate doses based on its mode of action and long half-life. While pritelivir directly inhibits replication in epithelial cells, our model indicates that pritelivir also indirectly limits downstream viral spread from neurons to genital keratinocytes, within genital ulcers, and from ulcer to new mucosal sites of infection. We validate our model based on its ability to predict outcomes in a subsequent trial with a higher dose. The model can therefore be employed to optimize dose selection in clinical practice. PMID:26843190

  5. Serum B-cell maturation antigen: a novel biomarker to predict outcomes for multiple myeloma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghermezi, Michael; Li, Mingjie; Vardanyan, Suzie; Harutyunyan, Nika Manik; Gottlieb, Jillian; Berenson, Ariana; Spektor, Tanya M; Andreu-Vieyra, Claudia; Petraki, Sophia; Sanchez, Eric; Udd, Kyle; Wang, Cathy S; Swift, Regina A; Chen, Haiming; Berenson, James R

    2017-04-01

    B-cell maturation antigen is expressed on plasma cells. In this study, we have identified serum B-cell maturation antigen as a novel biomarker that can monitor and predict outcomes for multiple myeloma patients. Compared to healthy donors, patients with multiple myeloma showed elevated serum B-cell maturation antigen levels (Pmultiple myeloma patients (n=243). Specifically, patients with serum B-cell maturation antigen levels above the median level at the time of starting front-line (P=0.0043) or a new salvage therapy (P=0.0044) were found to have shorter progression-free survival. Importantly, serum B-cell maturation antigen levels did not show any dependence on renal function and maintained independent significance when tested against other known prognostic markers for multiple myeloma such as age, serum β2 microglobulin, hemoglobin, and bone disease. These data identify serum B-cell maturation antigen as a new biomarker to manage multiple myeloma patients. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  6. Deep grey matter growth predicts neurodevelopmental outcomes in very preterm children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Julia M; Powell, Tamara L; Morgan, Benjamin R; Card, Dallas; Lee, Wayne; Smith, Mary Lou; Sled, John G; Taylor, Margot J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated whether the volume and growth rate of critical brain structures measured by MRI in the first weeks of life following very preterm (language and visual motor integration. Associations with maternal education and perinatal measures were also explored. Multiple regression analyses revealed that growth of the caudate and globus pallidus between preterm birth and term-equivalent age predicted visual motor integration scores after controlling for sex and gestational age. Further associations were found between caudate and putamen growth with IQ and language scores. Analyses at either preterm or term-equivalent age only found associations between normalized deep grey matter growth and visual motor integration scores at term-equivalent age. Maternal education levels were associated with measures of IQ and language, but not visual motor integration. Thalamic growth was additionally linked with perinatal measures and presence of white matter lesions. These results highlight deep grey matter growth rates as promising biomarkers of long-term outcomes following very preterm birth, and contribute to our understanding of the brain-behaviour relations in these children.

  7. Prediction of outcome in buccal cancers treated with radical radiotherapy based on the early tumor response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G V Giri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the Study: Aim was to assess the clinical significance of the rate of tumor regression in carcinoma buccal mucosa undergoing radical radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: Sixty six patients were enrolled in the study with proven buccal cancers requiring radical radiotherapy, from 1990 to 1996. Radiotherapy was delivered using a combination of external beam and brachytherapy with preloaded cesium 137 needles. The response to the radiation was assessed at the completion of external beam radiation and 6 weeks after brachytherapy. An analysis correlating various parameters influencing the long term disease free survival and overall survival was done. Results: Response assessed at the end of external beam radiation correlated strongly with the overall survival and the disease free interval (P=0.000. No other factor influenced the survival. Conclusion: The rate of the tumor regression can predict the overall outcome in patients with buccal cancers treated with radiation. Completion of the planned course of radiation in patients who do not show a substantial reduction in size by 4.5 weeks of conventional radiation does not improve the results.

  8. Tumor-infiltrating CD45RO(+) Memory T Lymphocytes Predict Favorable Clinical Outcome in Solid Tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Guoming; Wang, Shimin

    2017-09-04

    The prognostic role of tumor-infiltrating CD45RO(+) memory T lymphocytes (CD45RO(+) T cells) in human solid tumors remains controversial. Herein, we conducted a meta-analysis including 25 published studies with 4720 patients identified from PubMed and EBSCO to assess the prognostic impact of tumor-infiltrating CD45RO(+) T cells in human solid tumors. We found that CD45RO(+) T cell infiltration was significantly associated with improved overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in all types of solid tumors. In stratified analyses, CD45RO(+) T cell infiltration significantly improved 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS in colorectal, gastric and esophageal cancer, but only 5-year OS in hepatocellular carcinoma. And these cells were positively associated with 1-year, 3-year and 5-year DFS in hepatocellular, colorectal and esophageal cancer. In addition, high density of intratumoral CD45RO(+) T cells inversely correlated with TNM stage of solid tumor. In conclusion, CD45RO(+) memory T lymphocyte infiltration leads to a favorable clinical outcome in solid tumors, implicating that it is a valuable biomarker for prognostic prediction for human solid malignances.

  9. Whole blood EBV-DNA predicts outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tisi, Maria Chiara; Cupelli, Elisa; Santangelo, Rosaria; Maiolo, Elena; Alma, Eleonora; Giachelia, Manuela; Martini, Maurizio; Bellesi, Silvia; D'Alò, Francesco; Voso, Maria Teresa; Pompili, Maurizio; Leone, Giuseppe; Larocca, Luigi Maria; Hohaus, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    An association between Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) infection and lymphoproliferative diseases has been reported with EBV + diffuse large B cell-lymphoma (DLBCL) of the elderly described as a distinct entity. In a cohort of 218 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas, we detected EBV-DNA in 25% of whole blood (WB) samples at diagnosis. Presence and viral load in WB, mononuclear cells or plasma did not predict the presence of EBV in the tumor biopsy. Positive Hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology was associated with a higher frequency of EBV in WB. Patients with EBV-DNA in WB had a significantly shorter progression-free (p = 0.02) and overall survival (p = 0.05) after immunochemotherapy with R-CHOP (Rituximab, Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, Prednisolone). We conclude that detection of EBV in WB is not a surrogate marker for EBV-association in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, however it associates with worse outcome.

  10. Clinical outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Macdonald, R Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2013-01-01

    The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.

  11. Factors predicting early outcome in patients admitted at emergency department with severe head trauma

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rejeb Belfekih Imen; Chakroun Olfa; Chtara Kamilia; Boujelbene Meriam; Ksibi Hichem; Chaari Adel; Bahloul Mabrouk; Rekik Noureddine

    2015-01-01

    Objective:To determine predictive factors of early mortality among severe traumatic brain injury in emergency department. Methods: This study is based on a retrospective analysis of 198 admitted in emergency depatment with severe head injury (Glasgow coma scale score≤8) of an university hospital (Sfax, Tunisia). Basic demographic, clinical, biological and radiological data were recorded on admission and during emergency department stay. Results: Forty two patients were died. Univariate analysis showed that the presence of shock, cardiac arrest, bilateral mydriasis, high value of injury severity score and low value of Glasgow coma scale were associated with mortality. Moreover, meningeal hemorrhage, cerebral and subdural haematoma were associated with poorer outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that factors associated with a poor prognosis were cardiac arrest cerebral and the presence of cerebral haematoma. Conclusions: Improving pre-hospital care and ovoid futile resuscitation to given priority in resource allocation and urgent CT scan of the head to look for operable mass lesions as early detection should improve the prognosis of severe head injury at emergency department.

  12. Serodiagnostic markers for the prediction of the outcome of intensive phase tuberculosis therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Ralf; Kaempfer, Susanne; Chegou, Novel N; Nene, Nonhlanhla F; Veenstra, Hanne; Spallek, Ralf; Bolliger, Chris T; Lukey, Pauline T; van Helden, Paul D; Singh, Mahavir; Walzl, Gerhard

    2013-03-01

    Treatment failure and relapse may affect many tuberculosis (TB) patients who undergo standard anti-TB therapy. Several independent studies suggested unsuccessful sputum culture conversion at month 2 of treatment (slow response) as risk factor for treatment failure and relapse. However, earlier than month 2 identification of patients with a high risk for poor treatment outcome would offer significant clinical trial and individual patient care benefits. The sensitivity and specificity of serological IgG and IgA responses against four recombinant mycobacterial antigens (ABC transporter PstS3, secreted l-alanine dehydrogenase, culture filtrate protein Tpx and 6 kDa early secretory antigenic target esxa (ESAT-6)) were evaluated separately in a blinded fashion in 21 smear-positive pulmonary TB patient sera taken at diagnosis before commencement of directly observed anti-TB treatment short course comprising 13 slow responder and eight fast responder subjects. We observed a general pattern of higher antibody levels in sera of slow responders. Most pronounced were high levels of anti-alanine dehydrogenase IgG, anti-Tpx IgG, anti-ESAT-6 IgG and anti-ESAT-6 IgA antibodies at diagnosis being associated with slow response with 100% specificity each and 46.2, 53.8, 53.8 or 53.8% sensitivity, respectively, when compared to fast response (P = 0.020, 0.021, 0.040 and 0.011, respectively). Discriminant analysis showed that the combined use of anti-Tpx IgG and anti-ESAT-6 IgA antibody titers before treatment predicted slow responders with 90.5% accuracy. These preliminary results suggest that combinations of serodiagnostic markers measured prior to initiation of treatment may be suitable for the prediction of early treatment response. This approach holds promise and requires further evaluation for its utility in the prediction of treatment failure and relapse, the evaluation of new TB therapeutics, as well as in the care of individual patients.

  13. The Nordic back pain subpopulation program: predicting outcome among chiropractic patients in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekkarinen Harri

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a previous Swedish study it was shown that it is possible to predict which chiropractic patients with persistent LBP will not report definite improvement early in the course of treatment, namely those with LBP for altogether at least 30 days in the past year, who had leg pain, and who did not report definite general improvement by the second treatment. The objectives of this study were to investigate if the predictive value of this set of variables could be reproduced among chiropractic patients in Finland, and if the model could be improved by adding some new potential predictor variables. Methods The study was a multi-centre prospective outcome study with internal control groups, carried out in private chiropractic practices in Finland. Chiropractors collected data at the 1st, 2nd and 4th visits using standardized questionnaires on new patients with LBP and/or radiating leg pain. Status at base-line was identified in relation to pain and disability, at the 2nd visit in relation to disability, and "definitely better" at the 4th visit in relation to a global assessment. The Swedish questionnaire was used including three new questions on general health, pain in other parts of the spine, and body mass index. Results The Swedish model was reproduced in this study sample. An alternative model including leg pain (yes/no, improvement at 2nd visit (yes/no and BMI (underweight/normal/overweight or obese was also identified with similar predictive values. Common throughout the testing of various models was that improvement at the 2nd visit had an odds ratio of approximately 5. Additional analyses revealed a dose-response in that 84% of those patients who fulfilled none of these (bad criteria were classified as "definitely better" at the 4th visit, vs. 75%, 60% and 34% of those who fulfilled 1, 2 or all 3 of the criteria, respectively. Conclusion When treating patients with LBP, at the first visits, the treatment strategy should be

  14. Magnetic resonance imaging and the prediction of outcome in first-episode schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dazzan, Paola; Arango, Celso; Fleischacker, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    UNLABELLED: Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) measures are promising outcome markers for schizophrenia, since regional frontal and temporal grey matter volumes reductions, and enlargement of the ventricles, have been associated with outcome in this disorder. However, a number of methodological...

  15. Latent classes of childhood trauma exposure predict the development of behavioral health outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, E D; Van Eck, K; Musci, R J; Hart, S R; Storr, C L; Breslau, N; Wilcox, H C

    2015-11-01

    To develop latent classes of exposure to traumatic experiences before the age of 13 years in an urban community sample and to use these latent classes to predict the development of negative behavioral outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood. A total of 1815 participants in an epidemiologically based, randomized field trial as children completed comprehensive psychiatric assessments as young adults. Reported experiences of nine traumatic experiences before age 13 years were used in a latent class analysis to create latent profiles of traumatic experiences. Latent classes were used to predict psychiatric outcomes at age ⩾13 years, criminal convictions, physical health problems and traumatic experiences reported in young adulthood. Three latent classes of childhood traumatic experiences were supported by the data. One class (8% of sample), primarily female, was characterized by experiences of sexual assault and reported significantly higher rates of a range of psychiatric outcomes by young adulthood. Another class (8%), primarily male, was characterized by experiences of violence exposure and reported higher levels of antisocial personality disorder and post-traumatic stress. The final class (84%) reported low levels of childhood traumatic experiences. Parental psychopathology was related to membership in the sexual assault group. Classes of childhood traumatic experiences predict specific psychiatric and behavioral outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood. The long-term adverse effects of childhood traumas are primarily concentrated in victims of sexual and non-sexual violence. Gender emerged as a key covariate in the classes of trauma exposure and outcomes.

  16. Risk assessment and predicting outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms: A review of potential role of peripheral blood based biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhautesh Dinesh Jani

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Depression is one of the major global health challenges and a leading contributor of health related disability and costs. Depression is a heterogeneous disorder and current methods for assessing its severity in clinical practice rely on symptom count, however this approach is unreliable and inconsistent. The clinical evaluation of depressive symptoms is particularly challenging in primary care, where the majority of patients with depression are managed, due to the presence of co-morbidities. Current methods for risk assessment of depression do not accurately predict treatment response or clinical outcomes. Several biological pathways have been implicated in the pathophysiology of depression; however, accurate and predictive biomarkers remain elusive. We conducted a systematic review of the published evidence supporting the use of peripheral biomarkers to predict outcomes in depression, using Medline and Embase. Peripheral biomarkers in depression were found to be statistically significant predictors of mental health outcomes such as treatment response, poor outcome and symptom remission; and physical health outcomes such as increased incidence of cardiovascular events and deaths, and all-cause mortality. However, the available evidence has multiple methodological limitations which must be overcome to make any real clinical progress. Despite extensive research on the relationship of depression with peripheral biomarkers, its translational application in practice remains uncertain. In future, peripheral biomarkers identified with novel techniques and combining multiple biomarkers may have a potential role in depression risk assessment but further research is needed in this area.

  17. Pulmonary embolism in intensive care unit: Predictive factors, clinical manifestations and outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahloul Mabrouk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective : To determine predictive factors, clinical and demographics characteristics of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE in ICU, and to identify factors associated with poor outcome in the hospital and in the ICU. Methods : During a four-year prospective study, a medical committee of six ICU physicians prospectively examined all available data for each patient in order to classify patients according to the level of clinical suspicion of pulmonary thromboembolism. During the study periods, all patients admitted to our ICU were classified into four groups. The first group includes all patients with confirmed PE; the second group includes some patients without clinical manifestations of PE; the third group includes patients with suspected and not confirmed PE and the fourth group includes all patients with only deep vein thromboses (DVTs without suspicion of PE. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed either by a high-probability ventilation/perfusion (V/Q scan or by a spiral computed tomography (CT scan showing one or more filling defects in the pulmonary artery or in its branches. The diagnosis was also confirmed by echocardiography when a thrombus in the pulmonary artery was observed. Results : During the study periods, 4408 patients were admitted in our ICU. The diagnosis of PE was confirmed in 87 patients (1.9%. The mean delay of development of PE was 7.8 ± 9.5 days. On the day of PE diagnosis, clinical examination showed that 50 patients (57.5% were hypotensive, 63 (72.4% have SIRS, 15 (17.2% have clinical manifestations of DVT and 71 (81.6% have respiratory distress requiring mechanical ventilation. In our study, intravenous unfractionated heparin was used in 81 cases (93.1% and low molecular weight heparins were used in 4 cases (4.6%. The mean ICU stay was 20.2 ± 25.3 days and the mean hospital stay was 25.5 ± 25 days. The mortality rate in ICU was 47.1% and the in-hospital mortality rate was 52.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that

  18. Foramen magnum meningiomas: surgical results and risks predicting poor outcomes based on a modified classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Da; Wu, Zhen; Ren, Cong; Hao, Shu-Yu; Wang, Liang; Xiao, Xin-Ru; Tang, Jie; Wang, Yong-Gang; Meng, Guo-Lu; Zhang, Li-Wei; Zhang, Jun-Ting

    2017-03-01

    tumor P/R. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified nontotal resection (OR 4.06, 95% CI 1.16-14.2, p = 0.029) and pathological mitosis (OR 6.29, 95% CI 1.47-27.0, p = 0.013) as independent risks for poor outcome (KPS score < 80). CONCLUSIONS The modified classification helped to predict surgical outcome and P/R in addition to the position of the lower cranial nerves. Preoperative imaging studies and neurological function should be reviewed carefully to establish an individualized management strategy to improve long-term outcome.

  19. An analysis from the Quality Outcomes Database, Part 1. Disability, quality of life, and pain outcomes following lumbar spine surgery: predicting likely individual patient outcomes for shared decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGirt, Matthew J; Bydon, Mohamad; Archer, Kristin R; Devin, Clinton J; Chotai, Silky; Parker, Scott L; Nian, Hui; Harrell, Frank E; Speroff, Theodore; Dittus, Robert S; Philips, Sharon E; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Foley, Kevin T; Asher, Anthony L

    2017-10-01

    OBJECTIVE Quality and outcomes registry platforms lie at the center of many emerging evidence-driven reform models. Specifically, clinical registry data are progressively informing health care decision-making. In this analysis, the authors used data from a national prospective outcomes registry (the Quality Outcomes Database) to develop a predictive model for 12-month postoperative pain, disability, and quality of life (QOL) in patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery. METHODS Included in this analysis were 7618 patients who had completed 12 months of follow-up. The authors prospectively assessed baseline and 12-month patient-reported outcomes (PROs) via telephone interviews. The PROs assessed were those ascertained using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EQ-5D, and numeric rating scale (NRS) for back pain (BP) and leg pain (LP). Variables analyzed for the predictive model included age, gender, body mass index, race, education level, history of prior surgery, smoking status, comorbid conditions, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, symptom duration, indication for surgery, number of levels surgically treated, history of fusion surgery, surgical approach, receipt of workers' compensation, liability insurance, insurance status, and ambulatory ability. To create a predictive model, each 12-month PRO was treated as an ordinal dependent variable and a separate proportional-odds ordinal logistic regression model was fitted for each PRO. RESULTS There was a significant improvement in all PROs (p < 0.0001) at 12 months following lumbar spine surgery. The most important predictors of overall disability, QOL, and pain outcomes following lumbar spine surgery were employment status, baseline NRS-BP scores, psychological distress, baseline ODI scores, level of education, workers' compensation status, symptom duration, race, baseline NRS-LP scores, ASA score, age, predominant symptom, smoking status, and insurance status. The prediction discrimination

  20. Individual prediction of chronic motor outcome in the acute post-stroke stage: Behavioral parameters versus functional imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehme, A.K.; Volz, L.J.; Feis, D.-L.; Eickhoff, S.B.; Fink, G.R.; Grefkes, C

    2015-01-01

    Several neurobiological factors have been found to correlate with functional recovery after brain lesions. However, predicting the individual potential of recovery remains difficult. Here we used multivariate support vector machine (SVM) classification to explore the prognostic value of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to predict individual motor outcome at 4–6 months post-stroke. To this end, twenty-one first-ever stroke patients with hand motor deficits participated in an fMRI hand motor task in the first few days post-stroke. Motor impairment was quantified assessing grip force and the Action Research Arm Test. Linear SVM classifiers were trained to predict good versus poor motor outcome of unseen new patients. We found that fMRI activity acquired in the first week post-stroke correctly predicted the outcome for 86% of all patients. In contrast, the concurrent assessment of motor function provided 76% accuracy with low sensitivity (fMRI provided 87.5% prediction accuracy in these patients. Classifications were driven by activity in ipsilesional motor areas and contralesional cerebellum. The accuracy of subacute fMRI data (two weeks post-stroke), age, time post-stroke, lesion volume and location were at 50%-chance-level. In conclusion, multivariate decoding of fMRI data with SVM early after stroke enables a robust prediction of motor recovery. The potential for recovery is influenced by the initial dysfunction of the active motor system, particularly in those patients whose outcome cannot be predicted by behavioral tests. PMID:26381168

  1. Motives for sports participation as predictions of self-reported outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament injury of the knee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roessler, K K; Andersen, T E; Lohmander, S; Roos, E M

    2015-06-01

    Aim of the study was to access how individual's motives for participation in sports impact on self-reported outcomes 2 years after an anterior cruciate ligament injury. Based on a longitudinal cohort study, this secondary analysis present data from the Knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament, Nonsurgical versus Surgical Treatment (KANON) study, a randomized controlled trial. At baseline, 121 patients recorded in an initial questionnaire that their motives for sports participation fell into four categories: achievement, health, social integration, or fun and well-being. These four categories were used as variables in the analyses. All 121 subjects completed the 2-year follow-up. The largest improvement was seen in the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) subscale sports and recreation function, with an effect size of 2.43. KOOS sports and recreation function was also the subscale score best predicted by the motives for sports participation. Baseline motives achievement and fun and well-being predicted worse levels of pain and function 2 years after the injury, even after adjusting for age, gender, treatment and baseline scores. Psychological aspects, such as motives for participation in sport, can be factors in predicting of patient-reported outcomes 2 years after injury. Evaluating motives for sports participation may help predict the outcome 2 years after ACL injury. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Preschool Speech Error Patterns Predict Articulation and Phonological Awareness Outcomes in Children with Histories of Speech Sound Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Jonathan L.; Hull, Margaret; Edwards, Mary Louise

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine if speech error patterns in preschoolers with speech sound disorders (SSDs) predict articulation and phonological awareness (PA) outcomes almost 4 years later. Method: Twenty-five children with histories of preschool SSDs (and normal receptive language) were tested at an average age of 4;6 (years;months) and were followed up…