The effects of recent volatility in international petroleum markets on Canadian wholesale and retail gasoline prices : a report prepared for the Competition Bureau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roseman, F.

2005-03-01

This report addresses concern over high retail prices of gasoline and the low margins earned on gasoline sales in the Greater Toronto Area and in Ottawa, Ontario. The focus of this report was to understand reasons behind fluctuating prices, and to ascertain whether or not escalations in price were in fact anti-competitive acts that the Competition Bureau would have authority to take action over. Information requests were made by the author to all principal petroleum companies and to importers and marketers of gasoline. Detailed information on pricing was provided. Issues of supply and demand were responsible for spikes in prices. Information on petroleum refining and retailing of gasoline was reviewed, as well as information provided from dialogue and shareholder reports. Average refinery and retail margins in Ontario were discussed. It was concluded that fluctuating prices are the result of the petroleum industry's struggle to meet high demand. Any unscheduled maintenance or unanticipated increases in demand resulted in temporary shortfalls in supply, which led to higher prices. Exports were not a factor in increases in retail prices. In addition, domestic supply and the high cost of meeting environmental regulations with regard to sulphur levels in gasoline and diesel may have also played a role. It was also suggested that prices in Canada reflect overall pricing trends in the United States. tabs., figs

Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suvankulov, Farrukh; Lau, Marco Chi Keung; Ogucu, Fatma

2012-01-01

This paper explores price regulation and relative price convergence in the Canadian retail gasoline market. We use monthly data (2000–2010) on retail gasoline prices in 60 Canadian cities to investigate (i) whether the retail gasoline market in Canada has experienced a relative price convergence to the mean, which is expected, given the increased economic integration across Canadian provinces; and (ii) whether the introduction of price regulation mechanisms in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in July 2006 had any impact on the price convergence in these provinces. We use a nonlinear panel unit root test and find solid evidence that Canadian retail gasoline markets are well integrated across locales; however, the share of converging cities reveals a significant decline since July of 2006. The impact of price regulation on price convergence is mixed; our results indicate that since the enactment of the regulation in all New Brunswick cities (9) included in the dataset, gasoline prices converge to the national mean. Volatility of price is also significantly reduced. In contrast, in the wake of price regulation in Nova Scotia, all 6 cities of the province are non-convergent to the mean with increased volatility and overall price level. - Highlights: ► The paper examines price regulation and convergence of gasoline prices in Canada. ► Overall in 2000–2010 the Canadian retail gasoline market was well integrated. ► Price convergence across cities has significantly declined since July 2006. ► The impact of price regulation at province level on a price convergence is mixed. ► The paper relies on the most advanced nonlinear panel unit root test.

How Well Does the Price of Unleaded Gasoline Predict the Price of Ethanol?

OpenAIRE

Swenson, David A.

2008-01-01

This paper looks at the historical relationship of unleaded gasoline prices relative to ethanol prices. It uses several basic measures to determine the usefulness of wholesale unleaded gasoline price as a determinant of ethanol price, and it looks at the stability of that simple model over this decade.

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L.J.H. Bettendorf (Leon); S.A. van der Geest (Stéphanie); G. Kuper

2005-01-01

textabstractThis paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the

Understanding retail gasoline pricing : An empirical approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruzikas, Tadas

2017-01-01

Retail gasoline markets offer an abundance of price data at the daily and, more recently, hourly level. Firms in this industry use sophisticated price strategies. Moreover, there have been a number of important recent market developments. All this makes retail gasoline a promising industry to study

Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles

OpenAIRE

Hakan Yilmazkuday

2014-01-01

The e¡èects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles are investigated. In order to distinguish between gasoline supply and gasoline demand shocks, the price of gasoline is endogenously determined through a transportation sector that uses gasoline as an input of production. The model is estimated for the U.S. economy using five macroeconomic time series, including data on transport costs and gasoline prices. The results show that although standard shocks in the literature (e.g., technolo...

Do daily retail gasoline prices adjust asymmetrically?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettendorf, L.; van der Geest, S. A.; Kuper, G. H.

2009-01-01

This paper analyses adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004, taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out that the volatility

Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atil, Ahmed; Lahiani, Amine; Nguyen, Duc Khuong

2014-01-01

In this article, we use the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices. Our approach allows us to simultaneously test the short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the predetermined explanatory variables. It also offers the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative oil price shocks from the asymmetric dynamic multipliers. The obtained results indicate that oil prices affect gasoline prices and natural gas prices in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner, but the price transmission mechanism is not the same. Important policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices is examined. • We use a NARDL model to test for the long-run and short-run asymmetric reactions. • Both gasoline and natural gas prices significantly adjust to changes in the price of oil. • Negative oil shocks have greater effects than positive oil shocks. • Policy implications are discussed

Gasoline prices and traffic crashes in Alabama, 1999-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Guangqing; McClure, Timothy E; Brown, David B

2012-09-01

The price of gasoline has been found to be negatively associated with traffic crashes in a limited number of studies. However, most of the studies have focused either on fatal crashes only or on all crashes but measured over a very short time period. In this study, we examine gasoline price effects on all traffic crashes by demographic groups in the state of Alabama from 1999 to 2009. Using negative binomial regression techniques to examine monthly data from 1999 to 2009 in the state of Alabama, we estimate the effects of changes in gasoline price on changes in automobile crashes. We also examine how these effects differ by age group (16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-64, and 65+), gender (male and female), and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic). The results show that gasoline prices have both short-term and long-term effects on reducing total traffic crashes and crashes of each age, gender, and race/ethnicity group (except Hispanic due to data limitations). The short-term and long-term effects are not statistically different for each individual demographic group. Gasoline prices have a stronger effect in reducing crashes involving drivers aged 16 to 20 than crashes involving drivers aged 31 to 64 and 65+ in the short term; the effects, however, are not statistically different across other demographic groups. Although gasoline price increases are not favored, our findings show that gasoline price increases (or decreases) are associated with reductions (or increases) in the incidence of traffic crashes. If gasoline prices had remained at the 1999 level of $1.41 from 1999 to 2009, applying the estimated elasticities would result in a predicted increase in total crashes of 169,492 (or 11.3%) from the actual number of crashes. If decision makers wish to reduce traffic crashes, increasing gasoline taxes is a possible option-however, doing so would increase travel costs and lead to equity concerns. These findings may help to shape transportation

Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bettendorf, L. [Tinbergen Instituut, Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Netherlands); Van der Geest, S. [Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kuper, G. [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

2005-04-15

This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

Rising gasoline prices increase new motorcycle sales and fatalities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P; Hilsenrath, Peter E

2015-12-01

We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices. The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984-2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase. New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28) when gasoline prices increase. Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.

The Impact of Ethanol Blending on U.S. Gasoline Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none,

2008-11-01

This study assesses the impact of ethanol blending on gasoline prices in the United States today and the potential impact of ethanol on gasoline prices at higher blending concentrations (10%, 15% and 20% of the total U.S. gasoline consumption).

The US gasoline situation and crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2004-01-01

Before and during the United States' summer driving season, concern over the country's gasoline supply can potentially influence the direction of the petroleum market. There are three causes of concern: a persistent lack of gasoline-producing capacity; a patchwork of as many as 18 different kinds of gasoline specifications; and the introduction of stringent new specifications for reformulated gasoline. However, gasoline stocks should be able to meet the needs of this year's driving season, at a time of ample crude oil availability, with strong imports. But, unplanned outages in the US logistics system and refining centres, or major disruptions in external gasoline supplies, could trigger price spikes that would, in turn, lead to frequently stronger crude oil prices, especially with the observed robust oil demand growth in China. (Author)

Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahl, Carol A.

2012-01-01

Price and income elasticities of transport fuel demand have numerous applications. They help forecast increases in fuel consumption as countries get richer, they help develop appropriate tax policies to curtail consumption, help determine how the transport fuel mix might evolve, and show the price response to a fuel disruption. Given their usefulness, it is understandable why hundreds of studies have focused on measuring such elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel consumption. In this paper, I focus my attention on price and income elasticities in the existing studies to see what can be learned from them. I summarize the elasticities from these historical studies. I use statistical analysis to investigate whether income and price elasticities seem to be constant across countries with different incomes and prices. Although income and price elasticities for gasoline and diesel fuel are not found to be the same at high and low incomes and at high and low prices, patterns emerge that allow me to develop suggested price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demand for over one hundred countries. I adjust these elasticities for recent fuel mix policies, and suggest an agenda of future research topics. - Research highlights: ► Surveyed econometric studies of transport fuel demand. ► Developed price elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel for 120 countries. ► Developed income elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel fuel for 120 countries. ► Suggested a research agenda for future work.

Do gasoline prices exhibit asymmetry? Not usually

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douglas, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Previous studies have found evidence of asymmetric price adjustment in U.S. retail gasoline prices in that gasoline prices rise more rapidly in response to a cost increase than fall in response to a cost decrease. By estimating a threshold cointegration model that allows for multiple regimes, I am able to test how sensitive this result is to outlying observations. In contrast to previous studies, I find little evidence of asymmetry for the vast majority of observations and that the asymmetry is being driven by a small number of outlying observations. (author)

Initial mandate concerning the problem of fluctuating gasoline prices and their effect on the Quebec economy : Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guillot, R.; Ford, N. ed.

2002-06-01

Over a three-year period covering May 1998 to May 2001, the average price of gasoline in Quebec slowly increased from 57.1 cent per litre to 82.6 cent per litre. This 45 per cent increase in the price of gasoline worried consumers and had an effect on commercial and industrial operations throughout the province. This situation prompted the Commission de l'economie et du travail (Commission on Labour and the Economy) to initiate a mandate to examine the problem. In October 2001, experts representing energy and taxation sectors were consulted and presentations made by 17 people and organizations. The Ministre des Ressources Naturelles (Minister of Natural Resources) and the President de la Regie de l'Energie were heard in a public consultation forum. In the first part of the document, the authors explained the mechanism by which the price of gasoline and its various components are determined, identified the elements responsible for the increases in prices, and compare the prices in the different parts of the province. In part two, the responsibilities and powers of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Regie de l'Energie with regard to petroleum products were examined. Part three described the opinions expressed and proposed recommendations obtained during the public consultation process and they were grouped under four headings: taxation, competition, consumer information, and energy savings. The final part of the document presented the recommendations of the Commission on Labour and the Economy. 15 refs., 5 tabs

Analysis of the French gasoline market since the deregulation of prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lantz, F.; Ioannidis, C.

1992-01-01

In this paper, we have investigated the behaviour of gasoline prices in France over the period 1980-1990. We have established that the price liberalization measures introduced in 1985 were successful in integrating the domestic market to the European one, but the process of integration is still in progress. The behaviour of the Tax Authorities did not inhibit price flexibility with final gasoline prices responding symmetrically to international gasoline price changes. 8 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contin-Pilart, Ignacio; Correlje, Aad F.; Blanca Palacios, M.

2009-01-01

The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power

Competition, regulation, and pricing behaviour in the Spanish retail gasoline market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contin-Pilart, Ignacio [Departamento de Gestion de Empresas, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain); Correlje, Aad F. [Section Economics of Infrastructures, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft (Netherlands); Clingendael International Energy Programme (Netherlands); Blanca Palacios, M. [Departamento de Estadistica e Investigacion Operativa, Universidad Publica de Navarra, Campus de Arrosadia, 31006 Pamplona (Spain)

2009-01-15

The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990, the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that 'liberalization' was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. By 1998, prices were left to the 'free' market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results suggest that gasoline retail prices respond symmetrically to increases as well as to decreases in the spot price of gasoline both over the period of price regulation (January 1993-September 1998) and over the period of free market (October 1998-December 2004). However, once the ceiling price regulation was abolished, cooperation emerged between the government and the major operators, Repsol-YPF and Cepsa-Elf, to control the inflation rate. This resulted in a slower rate of adjustment of gasoline retail prices when gasoline spot prices went up, as compared with the European pattern. Finally, the Spanish retail margin was by the end of our timing period of analysis, as in the starting years after the abolishment of the state monopoly, above the European average. This pattern confirms our political economic hypothesis, which suggests that the Spanish government and the oil companies were working together in reducing the inflation, in periods of rising oil and gasoline prices. It is also inferred that explaining the pricing pattern in energy markets may require different hypothesis than the classical perspective, involving just firms taking advantage of market power. (author)

Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-Based Pricing, and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

OpenAIRE

Michael D. Noel

2007-01-01

This paper examines dynamic pricing behavior in retail gasoline markets for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct retail pricing patterns: 1. cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that, while seldom documented empirically, resemble those of Maskin & Tirole[1988]. Using a Markov switching regression, I estimate the prevalence of patterns and the structural characteristics of the cycles. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of ...

Prices and taxes for gasoline and diesel in industrialized countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davoust, R.

2008-01-01

This report present a comparative study on the prices and taxes of automotive fuels (gasoline and diesel fuel) in various industrialized countries, members of the OECD organization. Statistics are taken from a publication of the IEA (International Energy Agency), and concern the following fuel categories: regular gasoline, unleaded premium gasoline (SP 95 and SP 98), professional diesel fuel and domestic diesel fuel. It is shown that fuel prices are generally equivalent from one country to another, while taxes make all the difference for the retail final price. Somme global comparisons are also made between US and EU prices

An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

Science.gov (United States)

Jaureguiberry, Florencia

This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.

The taxation effect on gasoline price asymmetry nexus: Evidence from both sides of the Atlantic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polemis, Michael L.; Fotis, Panagiotis N.

2014-01-01

This paper explores the degree of competition in various gasoline markets and infers possible causes of price asymmetry across the globe. For this purpose we use the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square method in order to estimate price asymmetry in twelve European countries and the United States for a sample of weekly observations which spans the period from June 1996 to August 2011. The results indicate the common perception that less competitive gasoline markets exhibit price asymmetry, while highly competitive gasoline markets follow a symmetric price adjustment path. Finally, the inclusion of taxes (VAT and excise tax) into retail gasoline prices, supports the existence of price asymmetry in many European countries. - Highlights: • We examine the possible causes of gasoline price asymmetry across the globe. • We investigate the effect of taxation on the retail gasoline price adjustments. • There is a symmetric gasoline price response in the EU wholesale level. • Less competitive gasoline markets exhibit price asymmetry. • The oligopolistic structure of the gasoline markets inflates price asymmetry

Value of time: Speeding behavior and gasoline prices

OpenAIRE

Wolff, Hendrik

2012-01-01

Do drivers reduce speeds when gasoline prices are high? Previous research investigating this energy conservation hypothesis produced mixed results. We take a fresh look at the data and estimate a significant negative relationship between speeding and gasoline prices. This presents a new methodology of deriving the 'Value of Time' (VOT) based on the intensive margin (previous VOT studies compare across the extensive margin) which has important advantages to circumvent potential omitted variabl...

Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anindya Sen

2003-01-01

There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

THE EFFECT OF GASOLINE PRICE ON ECONOMIC SECTORS IN NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examined the long-run and short-run relationship between gasoline price and sectoral output in Nigeria for the period from 1980 to 2010. Six sectors (agriculture; manufacturing; building and construction; wholesale and retail; transportation and communication of the economy were examined. The long run regression estimate showed that gasoline price is a significant determinant output in all sectors examined with exception to the building and construction sector while the short run error correction estimate revealed that only output of the agriculture and the manufacturing sectors of the Nigerian economy is affect by gasoline price increase in the short run. The study recommended among others the need for the government to ensure adequate power supply in order to reduce the over reliance of economics sectors on gasoline as a prime source of power.

Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McPhail, Lihong Lu; Babcock, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Despite a large number of studies that examine the influence of biofuels and biofuel policy on commodity prices, the impact of biofuel policy on commodity price variability is poorly understood. A good understanding of biofuel policy’s impact on price variability is important for mitigating food insecurity and assisting policy formation. We examine how U.S. ethanol policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates and the blend wall affect the price variability of corn and gasoline. We first present an analytical and graphical framework to identify the effect and then use stochastic partial equilibrium simulation to measure the magnitude of the impacts. We show that RFS mandates and the blend wall both reduce the price elasticity of demand for corn and gasoline and therefore increase the price variability when supply shocks occur to the markets. This has important implications for policy actions with respect to maintaining or changing the current RFS mandates and/or blend wall in the US. -- Highlights: ► The RFS is found to lead to less elastic demand for corn and gasoline. ► Thus the RFS is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices when supply shocks occur. ► The ethanol blend wall is found to lead to less elastic corn and gasoline demand. ► Thus the blend wall is also found to lead to more volatile corn and gasoline prices.

Report on the inquiry into sale price fluctuations of gasoline and diesel fuel in the regions of Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Saguenay-Lac Saint Jean and the Upper Mauricie, October 1998 to 31 December 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambert, L.; Dumais, M. A.

2000-01-01

An inquiry was initiated by the President of the Quebec Energy Board (Regie de l'energie) on October 7, 1999 to review the reasons for the wide fluctuations in the retail sale prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in the regions of Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Saguenay/Lac-Saint-Jean and the Upper Mauricie, although the Board has no jurisdiction over the prices charged for petroleum products or anti-competitive practices. Consequently, the inquiry confined itself to an analysis of the information pertaining to the structure and forces driving the petroleum products market, and an examination of price mechanisms and consumer reactions in these regions. The inquiry reviewed the relevant legislation and regulation, the social, economic and energy situations in the affected regions, and the structure and functioning of the market for gasoline and diesel fuel. The inquiry came to the conclusion that the price fluctuations during the period under review reflected the wholesale prices recorded at Montreal and Quebec, which are determined by national and international market forces over which Quebec has no significant control. Furthermore, the inquiry concluded that although market forces are present and functioning in the regions, there are relatively few outlets affiliated with major oil companies, and a large number of independent retail outlets with relatively small volumes of annual sales. They essentially set their own prices at a level that reflect their cost of operation. Appendices contain the Inquiry's mandate, a list of those who testified before the Inquiry, a map showing the geographic profile of the regions surveyed and a list of figures and tables. 18 tabs., 31 figs

Regulatory restrictions and energy: The impact of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gius, Mark

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to estimate the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. Although the Jones Act pertains to the domestic shipment of all types of goods, the present study will only focus on gasoline. The present study will use data obtained from the Energy Information Administration in order to determine if the price of gasoline declined during Jones Act waiver periods. Looking at daily prices, the results regarding the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices are mixed. When using a t-test, the results indicated either that there was no significant difference or that prices were actually higher during the waiver periods. When using a first-order autoregressive model, it was found that prices were lower during the 2005 waiver period but higher during the 2012 waiver. Given these inconclusive results, it is not possible to conclude that the Jones Act restrictions contribute to higher gasoline prices. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. • I use daily price data over a seven year period. • I find that the results are mixed. • For the Hurricane Katrina waiver, prices fell, but for the Hurricane Sandy waiver, prices rose

Associations of cycling with urban sprawl and the gasoline price.

Science.gov (United States)

Rashad, Inas

2009-01-01

Determine the relationships between cycling and urban sprawl and between cycling and the gasoline price. Cross-sectional multivariate regression analyses using pooled data from two individual-level national surveys to analyze the effects of variations in levels of urban sprawl and the gasoline price on cycling as a form of physical activity. Metropolitan areas representative of the U.S. population, 1990 to 2001. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System: 146,730 individuals at least 18-years-old in the United States; Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 73,903 individuals at least 18-years-old in the United States. Self-reported information on bicycling served as the dependent variable. Urban sprawl and the gasoline price served as key independent variables. Living in a metropolitan area with a lower degree of urban sprawl increased the probability of cycling in the past month by 3.4 to 4.4 percentage points and 1.6 to 2.1 percentage points from the means for men and women, respectively. Increasing the gasoline price by one dollar increased the probability of cycling by 4.3 to 4.7 percentage points and 2.9 to 3.5 percentage points for men and women, respectively. Results indicate that the prevalence of cycling is higher in less sprawling areas and areas with higher gasoline prices. More research is needed to refine results on how individuals respond to incentives and the roles that monetary and time costs play in improving public health.

Taxes, cost and demand shifters as determinants in the regional gasoline price formation process: Evidence from Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bello, Alejandro; Contín-Pilart, Ignacio

2012-01-01

This paper examines the pass-through of regional tax changes and spot price variations to regional gasoline prices in Spain. It also analyzes the impact of all major cost and demand shifters that contribute to regional gasoline price formation. To address these research issues, a reduced form price equation using monthly time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data from January 2004 through December 2008 is estimated. Strong and consistent evidence of full shifting of regional tax changes to regional gasoline prices is found. Gasoline spot price changes are more than proportionally passed through to retail prices. In addition, the empirical evidence shows, on the one hand, that regional gasoline price differences before taxes continue to be quite narrow and, on the other hand, that there is still a margin for larger gasoline price differences among regions. This suggest that “traditional practices” from the monopoly era (i.e. relatively uniform regional gasoline prices) persist after the market has been liberalized, which may have been facilitated by the strong and uniform presence of the major Spanish-based refining companies in the retail sector over the whole country. - Highlights: ► The paper analyzes the impact of all major demand and cost shifters that contribute to regional gasoline price formation. ► It shows that the relatively uniform regional gasoline prices persist after the Spanish gasoline market has been liberalized. ► It shows that regional tax changes are fully passed on to regional gasoline prices. ► It also shows that gasoline spot price changes are fully passed on to consumer prices.

A study of Canadian retail gasoline prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckert, A.L.

1999-05-01

Retail gasoline pricing in Canadian markets was examined to demonstrate why retail prices tend to follow one of two distinct patterns and that neither pattern is observable in the wholesale price. In many cities, retail prices are more rigid than wholesale prices, while in other markets, retail prices follow a cyclic pattern not seen in wholesale prices. This study examined why constant prices are observed in some cities, while other cities have cyclic prices. Theoretical justification was given to the argument that prices will remain constant only in markets in which there are only few gasoline companies with a small number of stations, but a large per-station capacity. It was shown that when one firm operates significantly more stations than its rival, a constant cost equilibrium cannot be maintained. However, a cycle equilibrium can be constructed in this case, and also when the two companies are similarly sized. An initial examination of available price, cost and market structure data shows that there is a positive correlation between price stability and concentration. The response of retail prices to wholesale price movements in the presence of a retail price cycle was also examined through the use of a simple model based on the predictions of the above theory. Data for the city of Windsor, Ontario was used for the modelling approach. A new cycle is created by an increase in price whenever the distance between the previous retail price and the current wholesale prices is very small. Retail prices are more responsive to wholesale prices over the increasing portion of the cycle. It was shown that when the asymmetric error correction model of Borenstein, Cameron and Gilbert is estimated, it indicates a more rapid response to wholesale price increases than to decreases. 72 refs., 22 tabs., 8 figs

Imperfect price-reversibility of US gasoline demand: Asymmetric responses to price increases and declines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gately, D.

1992-01-01

This paper describes a framework for analyzing the imperfect price-reversibility (hysteresis) of oil demand. The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s, nor is it necessarily true that these partial demand reversals themselves will be reversed exactly by future price increases. The author decomposes price into three monotonic series: price increases to maximum historic levels, price cuts, and price recoveries (increases below historic highs). He would expect that the response to price cuts would be no greater than to price recoveries, which in turn would be no greater than for increases in maximum historic price. For evidence of imperfect price-reversibility, he tests econometrically the following US data: vehicle miles per driver, the fuel efficiency of the automobile fleet, and gasoline demand per driver. In each case, the econometric results allow him to reject the hypothesis of perfect price-reversibility. The data show smaller response to price cuts than to price increases. This has dramatic implications for projections of gasoline and oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. 26 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

Gasoline standard Motor monthly Prices, Projection and Impact, during 1999

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

1999-01-01

The liberation of prices for the standard gasoline and ACPM, that was given starting from January of 1.999, it outlines uncertainties on the possible prices evolution, along the supply chain until the final user, in comparison with the system previous of control and adjustment. This article presents an approach to the possible evolution of the gasoline motor prices during 1.999, in their different components. It makes it from the entrance to the producer until when one sells the public to a maximum price that includes the super tax. Additionally, it makes a preliminary calculation of the impact of the prices prospective month to month on the cost of transport of ECOPETROL revenues and the Nation revenues. The prospective annual percentage variation is presented from the entrance to the producer and of the other components of the price of the standard gasoline motor in different scenarios of the rate variation. In the most probable scenario, a variation is expected from the entrance to the producing of 1,9% and an increment in the sale price to the public, without including the super tax, of 12,6%

Product differentiation, competition and prices in the retail gasoline industry

Science.gov (United States)

Manuszak, Mark David

This thesis presents a series of studies of the retail gasoline industry using data from Hawaii. This first chapter examines a number of pricing patterns in the data and finds evidence that gasoline stations set prices which are consistent with a number of forms of price discrimination. The second chapter analyzes various patterns of cross-sectional, cross-market and intertemporal variation in the data to investigate their suitability for use in structural econometric estimation. The remainder of the dissertation consists of specification and estimation of a structural model of supply and demand for retail gasoline products sold at individual gasoline stations. This detailed micro-level analysis permits examination of a number of important issues in the industry, most notably the importance of spatial differentiation in the industry. The third chapter estimates the model and computes new equilibria under a number of asymmetric taxation regimes in order to examine the impact of such tax policies on producer and consumer welfare as well as tax revenue. The fourth chapter examines whether there is any evidence of tacitly collusive behavior in the Hawaiian retail gasoline industry and concludes that, in fact, conduct is fairly competitive in this industry and market.

The relationship between gasoline price and patterns of motorcycle fatalities and injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, He; Wilson, Fernando A; Stimpson, Jim P

2015-06-01

Economic factors such as rising gasoline prices may contribute to the crash trends by shaping individuals' choices of transportation modalities. This study examines the relationship of gasoline prices with fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries. Data on fatal and non-fatal motorcycle injuries come from California's Statewide Integrated Traffic Records System for 2002-2011. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions were used to estimate the impact of inflation-adjusted gasoline price per gallon on trends of motorcycle injuries. Motorcycle fatalities and severe and minor injuries in California were highly correlated with increasing gasoline prices from 2002 to 2011 (r=0.76, 0.88 and 0.85, respectively). In 2008, the number of fatalities and injuries reached 13,457--a 34% increase since 2002, a time period in which inflation-adjusted gasoline prices increased about $0.30 per gallon every year. The majority of motorcycle riders involved in crashes were male (92.5%), middle-aged (46.2%) and non-Hispanic white (67.9%). Using ARIMA modelling, we estimated that rising gasoline prices resulted in an additional 800 fatalities and 10,290 injuries from 2002 to 2011 in California. Our findings suggest that increasing gasoline prices led to more motorcycle riders on the roads and, consequently, more injuries. Aside from mandatory helmet laws and their enforcement, other strategies may include raising risk awareness of motorcyclists and investment in public transportation as an alternative transportation modality to motorcycling. In addition, universally mandated training courses and strict licensing tests of riding skills should be emphasised to help reduce the motorcycle fatal and non-fatal injuries. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Longitudinal trends in gasoline price and physical activity: The CARDIA study

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Ningqi; Popkin, Barry M; Jacobs, David R; Song, Yan; Guilkey, David K; He, Ka; Lewis, Cora E.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate longitudinal associations between community-level gasoline price and physical activity (PA). Method In the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study, 5,115 black and white participants aged 18–30 at baseline 1985–86 were recruited from four U.S. cities (Birmingham, Chicago, Minneapolis and Oakland) and followed over time. We used data from 3 follow-up exams: 1992–93, 1995–96, and 2000–01, when the participants were located across 48 states. From questionnaire data, a total PA score was summarized in exercise units (EU) based on intensity and frequency of 13 PA categories. Using Geographic Information Systems, participants’ residential locations were linked to county-level inflation-adjusted gasoline price data collected by the Council for Community & Economic Research. We used a random-effect longitudinal regression model to examine associations between time-varying gasoline price and time-varying PA, controlling for age, race, gender, baseline study center, and time-varying education, marital status, household income, county cost of living, county bus fare, census block-group poverty, and urbanicity. Results Holding all control variables constant, a 25-cent increase in inflation-adjusted gasoline price was significantly associated with an increase of 9.9 EU in total PA (95%CI: 0.8–19.1). Conclusion Rising prices of gasoline may be associated with an unintended increase in leisure PA. PMID:21338621

Testing for asymmetric pricing in the Canadian retail gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godby, R.; Lintner, A.M.; Stengos, T.; Wandschneider, B.

2000-01-01

This paper applies a Threshold Regression model to test for asymmetric pricing in the retail gasoline market in Canada, using weekly data for the period January 1990 to December 1996. We present results for 13 Canadian cities for both premium and regular gasoline. Within the context of an error correction model we test for the presence of asymmetric price behaviour using average changes in crude prices as well as various lags for the change in crude as possible thresholds. We are unable to find any evidence to support this view. 23 refs

On the Effects of Suggested Prices in Gasoline Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.P. Faber (Riemer); M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis article analyzes the role of suggested prices in the Dutch retail market for gasoline. Suggested prices are announced by large oil companies with the suggestion that retailers follow them. There are at least two competing rationales for the existence of suggested prices: they may

Market structure and price adjustment in the U.S. wholesale gasoline markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oladunjoye, Olusegun

2008-01-01

The issue of sticky prices in U.S. wholesale gasoline market is re-examined allowing for the effect of market structure due to increased market concentration caused by mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures which started in the late 1990s in the U.S. oil industry. I investigate the effects of market structure on the pattern of price adjustment based on the notion that increased market concentration leads to downward price stickiness and asymmetric short run price adjustment in the transmission of crude price changes to wholesale gasoline price. I find that market concentration has an insignificant asymmetric effect on the speed of price adjustment but a significant asymmetric effect on short run price adjustments in the response of wholesale gasoline prices to crude price shocks in three U.S. wholesale markets. Furthermore, the signs on the coefficients of market concentration effects on price dynamics in the models support the assertion that increased market concentration leads to downward price stickiness in only one of the three markets examined. Overall, the results indicate that market structure does not have a strong effect on the dynamics of price adjustment. (author)

Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bagnai, Alberto; Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander

2015-01-01

Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short- and long-run elasticities, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the pricing behaviour. The estimation results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the long-run elasticities, with significant differences between the crude price and the exchange rate, as well as the presence of hysteresis in the relation between the retail price of gasoline and crude oil price. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices and exchange rate into gasoline prices is examined. •We use an extended NARDL model to test for asymmetric reactions and hysteresis. • Asymmetric pricing behaviour features only in the long run. • The sign of the asymmetry differs between exchange rate and crude price changes. • The results are robust to the inclusion of several variables usually related to asymmetry

Competition, regulation, and pricing behavior in the Spanish retail gasoline market

OpenAIRE

Contín Pilart, Ignacio; Correljé, Aad F.; Palacios, María Blanca

2006-01-01

The restructuring of the Spanish oil industry produced a highly concentrated oligopoly in the retail gasoline market. In June 1990 the Spanish government introduced a system of ceiling price regulation in order to ensure that "liberalization" was accompanied by adequate consumer protection. This paper examines the pricing behavior of the retail gasoline market using multivariate error correction models over the period January 1993 (abolishment of the state monopoly)-December 2004. The results...

An empirical analysis of gasoline price convergence for 20 OECD countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bentzen, J.

2003-07-01

Two decades have passed now since the oil price shocks of the 1970s and since then energy prices have - apart from short periods of price instability - evolved relatively smoothly in the industrialized countries. Energy taxes in many countries differ markedly thereby causing differences in final energy prices, but as similar tax levels are becoming more common, e.g. in the European Union, convergence concerning energy prices might be expected to appear. In the present paper national gasoline price data covering the time period since the 1970s for a sample of OECD countries are used in order to test for this often addressed topic of convergence. The empirical part of the paper applies different time series based tests of convergence, where gasoline prices exhibit convergence for most OECD-Europe countries in the case where US$ is used for measurement of the energy prices indicating a convergence or tax harmonization process is taking place for these countries. (au)

An empirical analysis of gasoline price convergence for 20 OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, J.

2003-01-01

Two decades have passed now since the oil price shocks of the 1970s and since then energy prices have - apart from short periods of price instability - evolved relatively smoothly in the industrialized countries. Energy taxes in many countries differ markedly thereby causing differences in final energy prices, but as similar tax levels are becoming more common, e.g. in the European Union, convergence concerning energy prices might be expected to appear. In the present paper national gasoline price data covering the time period since the 1970s for a sample of OECD countries are used in order to test for this often addressed topic of convergence. The empirical part of the paper applies different time series based tests of convergence, where gasoline prices exhibit convergence for most OECD-Europe countries in the case where US$ is used for measurement of the energy prices indicating a convergence or tax harmonization process is taking place for these countries. (au)

Gasoline prices in Canada : report of Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lastewka, W.

2003-11-01

The House of Commons Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology has reviewed the data on retail, rack and crude gasoline prices in Canada in response to soaring prices. Prices were compared to those in the United States and elsewhere. The Committee looked at all possible explanations for the most recent increase in gasoline prices and has concluded that the recent increase in the price of gasoline was the result of industry's competitive reactions to a series of international crises and abnormally cold weather in North America. No evidence indicated anticompetitive conduct on the part of the industry, nor was there evidence of abusive behaviour on the part of vertically integrated suppliers in the form of squeezing retail margins to eliminate or discipline independent retailers. The Committee relied on data collected and published by the industry. It would have preferred an independent source, but none was available. The Committee recommended that the Government of Canada create and fund a Petroleum Monitoring Agency to collect and disseminate price data on crude oil, refined petroleum products, and retail gasoline for all relevant North American markets. The agency will report to Parliament on an annual basis for 3 years. The report will include information on the competitive aspects of the petroleum sector in Canada. refs., tabs., figs

Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bettendorf, L.; Van der Geest, S.A.; Varkevisser, M.

2002-01-01

This paper analyses retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996 to 2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on Dutch consumer costs is negligible

Fluctuation traits of Litchi wholesale price in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, F. F.; Qi, W. E.; Ouyang, X.

2017-07-01

This paper chose the wholesale price of litchi as research object based on the daily data of 11 main sales markets in China -- Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hefei, Jiaxing, Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Changsha, Zhengzhou and Chongqing from April 1, 2012 to September 30, 2016. After analyzing the fluctuation characteristics with BP filter method and H-P filter method, and the fluctuation trends of litchi wholesale price in China obtained by BP filter are roughly consistent with the trends obtained by H-P filter. The main conclusions are as follows: there is strong cyclicality in the fluctuation of litchi wholesale price; the period of fluctuations of litchi wholesale prices are not repeatable; litchi wholesale price fluctuates asymmetrically in one fluctuation cycle.

Net effects of gasoline price changes on transit ridership in U.S. urban areas.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

Using panel data of transit ridership and gasoline prices for ten selected U.S. urbanized areas over the time period of 2002 to 2011, : this study analyzes the effect of gasoline prices on ridership of the four main transit modesbus, light rail, h...

A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); Nijkamp, Peter [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam (TIA), Roetersstraat 31, 1018 WB Amsterdam (Netherlands); The Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO), postbus 93138 - 2509 AC Den Haag (Netherlands); Pels, Eric [Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-09-15

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)

A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brons, Martijn; Rietveld, Piet; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric

2008-01-01

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In this meta-analytical study we aim to investigate and explain the variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A methodological novelty is that we use the linear relationship between the elasticities to develop a meta-analytical estimation approach based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with Cross Equation Restrictions. This approach enables us to combine observations of different elasticities and thus increase our sample size. Furthermore, it allows for a more detailed interpretation of our meta-regression results. The empirical results of the study demonstrate that the SUR approach leads to more precise results (i.e., lower standard errors) than a standard meta-analytical approach. We find that, with mean short run and long run price elasticities of - 0.34 and - 0.84, respectively, the demand for gasoline is not very price sensitive. Both in the short and the long run, the impact of a change in the gasoline price on demand is mainly driven by responses in fuel efficiency and mileage per car and to a slightly lesser degree by changes in car ownership. Furthermore, we find that study characteristics relating to the geographic area studied, the year of the study, the type of data used, the time horizon and the functional specification of the demand equation have a significant impact on the estimated value of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. (author)

Gasoline marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metzenbaum, H.M.

1991-02-01

Consumers have the option of purchasing several different grades of unleaded gasoline regular, mid-grade, and premium which are classified according to an octane rating. Because of concern that consumers may be needlessly buying higher priced premium unleaded gasoline for their automobiles when regular unleaded gasoline would meet their needs, this paper determines whether consumers were buying premium gasoline that they may not need, whether the higher retail price of premium gasoline includes a price mark-up added between the refinery and the retail pump which is greater than that included in the retail price for regular gasoline, and possible reasons for the price differences between premium and regular gasoline

Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States. An application of hidden cointegration technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Honarvar, Afshin

2009-01-01

There is a common belief that gasoline prices respond more quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases. Some economists and politicians believe that asymmetry in oil and gasoline price movements is the outcome of a non-competitive gasoline market requiring that governments take policy action to address 'unfair pricing'. There is no consensus as to the existence, or nature, of the asymmetric relationship between prices of gasoline and crude oil. Much of this literature specifies asymmetry in the speed of adjustment and short-run adjustment coefficients. In contrast, Granger and Yoon's [Granger, C.W. and Yoon, G. 'Hidden Cointegration', University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics Working Paper, (2002).] Crouching Error Correction Model (CECM) identifies asymmetry of the cointegrating vectors between components (cumulative positive and negative changes) of the series. Applying the CECM to retail gasoline and crude oil prices for the U.S., we find that there is only evidence of cointegration between positive components of crude oil prices and negative components of gasoline prices. In contrast to the literature which attributes asymmetric price movements to market power of refiners, these findings suggest that gasoline prices -in the long run- are more influenced by the technological changes on the demand side than crude oil price movements on the supply side. (author)

Oil industry consolidation and refined product prices. Evidence from US wholesale gasoline terminals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kendix, Michael; Walls, W.D.

2010-01-01

Our objective in this paper is to quantify the impact of petroleum industry consolidation on refined product prices, controlling for other important factors that could also impact prices. Our empirical analysis focuses on the US petroleum refining industry using data on industry consolidation and wholesale gasoline prices collected over the interval 2000-2008. We match refinery units to wholesale city-terminal gasoline markets, and then estimate pooled cross-section time-series regressions to quantify the impact of petroleum industry consolidation on wholesale gasoline prices at city-specific terminals. The results of the empirical analysis of mergers are mixed, showing that some petroleum industry mergers resulted in statistically significant increases in refined product prices; others resulted in statistically significant declines and still others had no statistical impact at all. Our analysis of the effects of measures of market concentration - one at the level of city-specific wholesale terminals and another at the level of regional spot markets - found evidence that less concentrated markets are associated with lower price levels. (author)

Price asymmetry in the Dutch retail gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bettendorf, Leon; Geest, Stephanie A. van der; Varkevisser, Marco

2003-01-01

This article analyses the retail price adjustments in the Dutch gasoline market. We estimate an asymmetric error correction model on weekly price changes for the years 1996-2001. We construct five datasets, one for each working day. The conclusions on asymmetric pricing are shown to differ over these datasets, suggesting that the choice of the day for which the prices are observed matters more than commonly believed. In our view, the insufficient robustness of the outcomes might explain the mixed conclusions found in the literature. Using these two approaches, we also show that the effect of asymmetry on the Dutch consumer costs is negligible. (Author)

Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl

2016-01-01

Using monthly data from the Spanish gasoline retail market we explore asymmetries in consumers’ behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes. In particular, we are interested in investigating whether an increase in gasoline taxes has a more negative impact on the demand than a –similar in magnitude– increase in the “pre-tax” price of gasoline for different fuel types. We estimate fuel consumers’ responses using a rich set of robust panel data models considering potential dynamic effects and endogeneity problems. We find evidence to confirm the existence of asymmetric responses for the demand of unleaded fuels and agricultural diesel fuel. However we cannot support this statement for the regular diesel case: for this fuel both the tax-exclusive price and the tax elasticities are roughly the same. This result agrees with the fact that “diesel drivers” tend to be better informed about changes in both fuel prices and taxes. Some implications in terms of fiscal policy and pollution and climate change policy are also discussed. - Highlights: •Provide evidence of asymmetric responses of gasoline demand due to changes in prices and taxes. •Identify differences in the elasticity of the demand of diesel fuel and unleaded gasoline. •Perform robustness checks considering dynamic effects and IV regression. •Provide some policy recommendations for future gasoline tax changes.

Are Gasoline Prices a Factor in Residential Relocation Decisions? Preliminary Findings from the American Housing Survey, 1996–2008

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie

2018-01-01

Residential relocation choice is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline prices as a potential factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation choice using 1996–2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with a higher percentage of movers choosing locations closer to workplaces. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on land use planning and policies; resilient “smart cities or communities” are one possible solution. PMID:29658959

Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on Nigeria stock exchange market. ... What are these environmental variables that affect the fluctuation of share prices in Nigeria? ... The results show inflation, money supply, total deficits index of industrial production, interest rate and GDP influence stock prices.

Estimation of Gasoline Price Elasticities of Demand for Automobile Fuel Efficiency in Korea: A Hedonic Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sung Tae [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Myunghun [Keimyung University, Taegu (Korea)

2001-03-01

This paper estimates the gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea to examine indirectly whether the government policy of raising fuel prices is effective in inducing less consumption of fuel, relying on a hedonic technique developed by Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984). One of the advantages of this technique is that the data for a single year, without involving variation in the price of gasoline, is sufficient in implementing this study. Moreover, this technique enables us to circumvent the multicollinearity problem, which had reduced reliability of the results in previous hedonic studies. The estimated elasticities of demand for fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline, on average, is 0.42. (author). 30 refs., 3 tabs.

Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Havránek, T.; Iršová, Z.; Janda, Karel

2012-01-01

Roč. 34, č. 1 (2012), s. 201-207 ISSN 0140-9883 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : gasoline demand * price elasticity * publication selection bias Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.538, year: 2012

Testing optimal punishment mechanisms under price regulation : the case of the retail market for gasoline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gagne, R.; Versaevel, B.

2003-01-01

The effects of a price floor on price wars in the retail market for gasoline were analyzed. The authors selected a theoretical model which assumed a Bertrand oligopoly supergame, where firms initially collude by charging the monopolistic price. Once a deviation from this strategy is detected by the firms, a switch to a lower price is made in what can be called a punishment phase (price war), before returning to collusive prices. A natural experiment for the testing of the model was provided by the introduction of a price floor regulation in the Quebec retail market for gasoline in 1996. A Markov Switching Model with two latent states was used to simultaneously identify the periods of price-collusion/price war, and also to estimate the parameters which characterized each state. The results indicated that the intensity of price wars was reduced by the introduction of the price floor, but the expected duration of those wars was raised. 14 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig

Testing optimal punishment mechanisms under price regulation : the case of the retail market for gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gagne, R. [Montreal Univ., Quebec, PQ (Canada). Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales; Van Norden, S. [Montreal Univ., Quebec, PQ (Canada). Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales]|[Centre for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Versaevel, B.

2003-09-01

The effects of a price floor on price wars in the retail market for gasoline were analyzed. The authors selected a theoretical model which assumed a Bertrand oligopoly supergame, where firms initially collude by charging the monopolistic price. Once a deviation from this strategy is detected by the firms, a switch to a lower price is made in what can be called a punishment phase (price war), before returning to collusive prices. A natural experiment for the testing of the model was provided by the introduction of a price floor regulation in the Quebec retail market for gasoline in 1996. A Markov Switching Model with two latent states was used to simultaneously identify the periods of price-collusion/price war, and also to estimate the parameters which characterized each state. The results indicated that the intensity of price wars was reduced by the introduction of the price floor, but the expected duration of those wars was raised. 14 refs., 5 tabs., 1 fig.

Trouble in your tank: What can be done about out-of-control gasoline prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menzies, D.

2000-01-01

The recent increases in the price of automotive fuels, especially gasoline is discussed. The Canadian Automobile Association (CAA) makes several recommendation as to how the government might intervene to bring prices back down to a realistic level. First and foremost, the CAA recommends an outright gasoline tax cut, noting that tax on gasoline has increased from 1.5 cent to 10 cents a litre since 1885. The CAA also suggests that a minimum of 5 cents reduction in price would result if the GST were applied only on an ex-tax basis instead of being tacked on to the total pump price after federal and provincial taxes have been added, which in effect amounts to a tax on tax. The provinces could also help by cutting back on their gasoline taxes which range from a low of 9 cents in Alberta to a high of 16.5 cents in Newfoundland. It is noted that the Ottawa-based Canadian Petroleum Products Institute, which represents the major oil companies, does not support the CAA suggestions and dismisses concerns regarding the near-monopoly in the market held by a few major oil companies by saying that while there are admittedly fewer small independents in the market, competition from new larger entrants has actually increased. The Institute spokesman attributes the recent round of price increases as merely the results of world market forces (despite the fact that Canada is a net exporter of oil). At the same time, the Independent Retail Gasoline Merchant Association wants the government to conduct a fundamental review of the Competition Act, to harmonize Canadian laws with those of the United States, our largest trading partner. The Association believes that the Competition Bureau has evolved into a a quasi-judicial body, and is mired in red tape. The Association also suggests that in the meantime, the government should invoke the Energy Supplies Emergency Act to stop Big Oil's 'deceitful price gouging'

The effects of the vegetable prices insurance on the fluctuation of price: Based on Shanghai evidences

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Chunhong; Li, Huishang; Hao, Shuai; Zhang, Xuebiao; Yang, Wei

2017-10-01

Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of the vegetable price insurance on the fluctuation of prices was analyzed in the article. It was found that the sequence of seasonal fluctuations characteristics of leafy vegetable prices was changed by the vegetable cost-price insurance, the period of price fluctuation was elongated from 12-to-18 months to 37 months, and the influence of random factors on the price fluctuations was reduced in some degree. There was still great space for innovation of the vegetable prices insurance system in Shanghai. Some countermeasures would be suggested to develop the insurance system to better to play the role of insurance and promote the market running more smoothly in Shanghai such as prolonging the insurance cycle, improving the price information monitoring mechanism and innovating income insurance products and so on.

Elasticity of Vehicle Miles of Travel to Changes in the Price of Gasoline and the Cost of Driving in Texas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenzel, Tom P.; Fujita, K. Sydny

2018-03-28

This report examines the sensitivity of annual vehicle miles of travel (VMT) of light-duty vehicles to the price of gasoline, commonly referred to as the elasticity of demand for VMT to the price of gasoline; the fuel-economy-related rebound effect is generally assumed to be of the same magnitude as the VMT elasticity of gas price or driving cost. We use detailed odometer readings from over 30 million vehicles in four urban areas of Texas, over a six-year period. We account for economic conditions over this period, as well as vehicle age. Following the literature we include fixed effects by vehicle make and individual vehicle, as well as the effect of adding an instrument to predict monthly gasoline price independent of any influences of demand for gasoline on its price.

Asymmetric Price Responses of Gasoline Stations. Evidence for Heterogeneity of Retailers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faber, R.P. [Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

2009-11-15

This paper studies asymmetric price responses of individual firms, via daily retail prices of almost all gasoline stations in the Netherlands and suggested prices of the five largest oil companies over more than two years. I find that 38% of the stations respond asymmetrically to changes in the spot market price. Hence, asymmetric pricing is not a feature of the market as a whole, but of individual firms. For asymmetrically pricing stations, the asymmetry is substantial directly after a change but disappears after one or two days. I study station-specific characteristics and conclude that asymmetric pricing seems to be a phenomenon that is randomly distributed across stations. I also find that none of the five largest oil companies adjust their suggested prices asymmetrically.

Asymmetric Price Responses of Gasoline Stations. Evidence for Heterogeneity of Retailers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faber, R.P.

2009-11-01

This paper studies asymmetric price responses of individual firms, via daily retail prices of almost all gasoline stations in the Netherlands and suggested prices of the five largest oil companies over more than two years. I find that 38% of the stations respond asymmetrically to changes in the spot market price. Hence, asymmetric pricing is not a feature of the market as a whole, but of individual firms. For asymmetrically pricing stations, the asymmetry is substantial directly after a change but disappears after one or two days. I study station-specific characteristics and conclude that asymmetric pricing seems to be a phenomenon that is randomly distributed across stations. I also find that none of the five largest oil companies adjust their suggested prices asymmetrically.

Heterogeneity in the response to gasoline prices: Evidence from Pennsylvania and implications for the rebound effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gillingham, Kenneth; Jenn, Alan; Azevedo, Inês M.L.

2015-01-01

The consumer response to changing gasoline prices has long interested economists and policymakers, for it has important implications for the effects of gasoline taxation and vehicle energy efficiency policies. This study examines both the elasticity of driving with respect to changing gasoline prices and heterogeneity in this elasticity by geography, the fuel economy of the vehicle, and the age of the vehicle. We use detailed annual vehicle-level emissions inspection test data from Pennsylvania that include odometer readings, inspection zip codes, and extensive vehicle characteristics. We estimate a short-run gasoline price elasticity of driving demand of − 0.10, and find substantial heterogeneity in this responsiveness. The elasticity is largely driven by low fuel economy vehicles, as well as vehicles between 3 and 7 years old. Our findings help reconcile some of the recent literature and provide guidance on the magnitude of the direct rebound effect from light duty vehicle energy efficiency policies.

Dynamic pricing in the spanish gasoline market. A tacit collusion equilibrium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perdiguero Garcia, Jordi

2010-01-01

During the last twenty years, the Spanish petrol market has undergone an intensive restructuration process; it has changed from being a state-owned monopoly to total liberalization and privatization. This liberalization process was accompanied by measures that facilitated the creation of a 'national champion', the Repsol Group, which is a huge, vertically integrated company with a high market share in all the industry's segments. Using a dynamic model, this paper analyses whether the prices established by companies in the Spanish gasoline market, after the restructuration process, fits with a tacit collusion equilibrium. The empirical results show that a strategic behaviour of companies occurs and is compatible with a tacit collusion price strategy. So, the restructuration process does not seem to have introduced effective competition into the Spanish gasoline market. (author)

Preliminary report. Preliminary findings and views concerning the exemption of aviation gasoline from the Mandatory Petroleum Allocation and Price Regulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1978-01-01

Preliminary findings indicate that: the fuel is not in short supply; exemption will not have an adverse impact on supply of any other petroleum product subject to the Emergency Petroleum allocation Act of 1973; competition and market force are adequate; exemption will not result in inequitable prices; and exemption will not have adverse state or regional impacts or any other adverse impacts. Chapter II provides background information on the use, production, and distribution of aviation gasoline. Chapter III analyzes the historical interaction of supply, demand, and price, and explores the market structure for aviation gasoline during 1968 to 1976, prior to and during imposition of allocation and price controls. Chapter IV examines aviation gasoline supply, demand, price, and market structure impacts of exempting aviation gasoline from controls. In Chapter V, the potential economic impacts of exemption are evaluated. Chapter VI provides a final summary of the DOE's findings and views in support of its preliminary judgment that aviation gasoline should be exempted from allocation and price regulations. (MCW)

A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brons, M.R.E.; Nijkamp, P.; Pels, E.; Rietveld, P.

2008-01-01

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

Science.gov (United States)

Houde, Jean-Francois

In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Stock Price Fluctuation and Its Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuhua Xu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies a simple dynamical system of stock price fluctuation time series based on the rule of stock market. When the stock price fluctuation system is disturbed by external excitations, the system exhibits obviously chaotic phenomena, and its basic dynamic properties are analyzed. At the same time, a new fixed-time convergence theorem is proposed for achieving fixed-time control of stock price fluctuation system. Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by numerical simulation.

An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand. A smooth time-varying cointegration approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Sung Y.; Zhao, Guochang

2010-01-01

In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled 'increase-decrease' cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax. (author)

An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand. A smooth time-varying cointegration approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Sung Y. [Department of Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005 (China); Zhao, Guochang [Research School of Economics, College of Business and Economics, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia)

2010-01-15

In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled 'increase-decrease' cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax. (author)

Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis

OpenAIRE

Walter Labys

2005-01-01

Commodity prices again! The twentieth century has only been the latest spectator to the impacts and importance of commodity price fluctuations. It is reasonably well known that commodity price records have come down to us from the ancient civilizations of India, Mesopotamia, Egypt, Greece and Rome. Earlier in the century, formal research began on the relationships between agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context. This research not only evolved in sophistication but extended ...

Standard gasoline and ACPM - First year of the measure of prices liberation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

2000-01-01

At the beginning of 1999, amid a lingering period of low prices of petroleum and relative stability of exchange market, due at the high interest rate levels and it offers of foreign currencies, the national government through the of Mines and Energy Ministry, decided to start the prices liberation for the standard gasoline and ACPM. In that moment, the economic politics of the state pointed to the maintenance of the flow of revenues of the nation, the creation of incentives for the investment of the national and international private capital, the elimination of subsidies of the public sector, the best assignment in the public expense, the construction of an environment competitive and the protection of the real wage of the Colombians. Specifically of liberation measure of the internal prices of standard gasoline and ACPM modified two components of prices structure, entrance to the producer (EP) and margin retailer; to rationalize the finances of Ecopetrol, to achieve a better assignment of the public resources with the elimination from an outline of subsidies to high strata, to look for the specialization of the state company in the exploration, to eliminate the effect that the expectations of increment of prices of hydrocarbons generated on the prices to the consumer index (PCI), to foment the free competition along the production chain and distribution and to improve the quality and covering of the service, by means of the incentive to the investments

Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

2012-01-01

The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She–Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets. (paper)

A Meta-analysis of the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. A System of Equations Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brons, Martijn; Nijkamp, Peter; Pels, Eric; Rietveld, Piet

2006-01-01

Automobile gasoline demand can be expressed as a multiplicative function of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. This implies a linear relationship between the price elasticity of total fuel demand and the price elasticities of fuel efficiency, mileage per car and car ownership. In

House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Anselin, Luc

This paper investigates the impact of house price movements on output in a space-time dynamic framework. The transmission of house price fluctuations to the macroeconomy both across space and over time is explicitly considered through spatial econometric modeling techniques. Using 373 metropolita...

Gasoline Prices and Their Relationship to Rising Motorcycle Fatalities, 1990–2007

Science.gov (United States)

Stimpson, Jim P.; Hilsenrath, Peter E.

2009-01-01

Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death among young adults. Although automobile fatalities have declined in recent years, motorcycle fatalities are rapidly increasing. The purpose of our research was to quantify the relationship between changing fuel prices and motorcycle fatalities. Our findings suggest that people increasingly rely on motorcycles to reduce their fuel costs in response to rising gasoline prices. We estimate that use of motorcycles and scooters instead of 4-wheeled vehicles results in over 1500 additional motorcycle fatalities annually for each dollar increase in gas prices. Motorcycle safety should receive more attention as a leading public health issue. PMID:19696374

The 'haves' and 'have nots'. Gasoline price subsidies great and small

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

It is dramatic to compare national retail gasoline prices around the world in oil-rich, developing countries and oil-pore, developed countries. But a new Energy Detente study shows that countries less than 50% dependent upon oil imports, regardless of wealth, have comparatively low prices - and countries more than half dependent on oil imports have high prices. Internal market subsidies, it seems, are only a matter of degree. The 20 oil-producing countries consumed 130 gallon per capita per year, the non-oil countries 79 gallons. This double issue of ED contains the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the U.S. Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam; and Singapore as of September 6, and September 20, 1991; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of both the Western and Eastern Hemispheres, September 1991 Edition. 6 figs., 10 tabs

Factors causing fluctuations in all milk price received by U.S. farmers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cropp, B.; Zijlstra, J.

2007-01-01

Milk prices received by U.S. dairy farmers have fluctuated considerably from one year to the next, particularly since the mid-1990s. The main factor for increased price fluctuation is a major change in U.S. dairy price support policy. This document will be part of the research report of the project

The Spanish gasoline market: From ceiling regulation to open market pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contin, I.; Correlje, A.; Huerta, E.

1999-01-01

This paper examines the evolution of the Spanish gasoline market from the abolition of the state oil monopoly (January 1993) to complete liberalization (October 1998). With the restructuring of the Spanish oil sector during the 1980s and early 1990s, a highly concentrated oligopoly emerged in the automotive fuels market. A system of price ceilings replaced the state administered prices in July 1990. Since then, new domestic and foreign operators have entered the market, particularly along the coast, near import terminals. Prices went up and then declined. These developments can be explained by an interplay of factors such as: the gradual decline in co-operation among the Spanish firms; the loss of market share of the largest of these, Repsol; the entry of independent operators and supermarkets; and the impact of the ceiling price system. By mid-1998 this system was abolished as the government considered it an impediment to further market liberalization. However, some crucial barriers to the entry of new suppliers remain

Elasticities of demand for gasoline in Canada and the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicol, C.J.

2003-01-01

Fluctuations in the world price of oil, the concern with greenhouse gas emissions and the efforts to revive the 1997 Kyoto Protocol have resulted in renewed interest in the estimation of elasticities of demand for gasoline. In this paper, a complete system of demand equations is estimated, including an equation for the demand for gasoline. Canadian family expenditure (FAMEX) and United States consumer expenditure (CEX) survey data are used. Household-level data permits estimation of elasticities for various household groups. Also, differences in demand responsiveness to own-price and income changes are estimated for different regions in Canada and the United States. Demand is found to be own-price and income inelastic, on the whole, as reported in earlier studies. There is also variation in these elasticities across regions of Canada and the United States. However, larger differences are observed with respect to household size and housing tenure, than to region of residence

Capital Gains Taxation and House Price Fluctuations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuest, Clemens; Nielsen, Søren Bo

2004-01-01

Recent years have seen large swings in house prices in many countries. Motivated by housing price variations, proposals for taxing capital gains on housing have repeatedly been put forth. The idea seems to be that such taxes would curb the redistribution occurring between those owning houses...... and those trying to get into the market for owner-occupied housing. Our paper shows that at least in simple settings, a tax on real capital gains on housing will only lead to even bigger price swings and will not be able to redistribute between people appearing on either side of the housing market.......Keywords: capital gains tax, housing market, price fluctuationsJEL-Classification: H23, H24, R 31.Addresses:...

Risk hedging against the fuel price fluctuation in energy service business

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bannai, Masaaki; Tomita, Yasushi; Ishida, Yasushi; Miyazaki, Takahiko; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

2007-01-01

Energy service business, or energy service company (ESCO), is expanding among industrial users as a means of energy saving. The ESCO business normally tends to become a long-term operation. During the operation, fluctuations of fuel and electricity costs significantly impact on the stability of the profit from ESCO business. Therefore, it is essential to reduce the risk of fuel and electricity cost fluctuations. Generally, a transaction called ''financial derivative'' is used as a measure of hedging against the fuel price fluctuation. In the case of ESCO business, it is necessary to manage the risk of both electricity and fuel price fluctuations because the variation in electricity price strongly affects the profit from ESCO as that in fuel price does. In this paper, the stabilization of the ESCO profit using financial derivatives was discussed by quantitative analyses of the actual data from existing plants. Case studies revealed that the appropriate volume of the fuel derivative implementation was less than a half of the fuel consumption at the ESCO facilities, and it ranged from 5% to 50%. (author)

Reformulated gasoline: lessons from America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seymour, A.

1995-01-01

Regulating fuel quality is one of the few politically feasible options for improving air quality in the short and medium term. This book explores and studies the reformulated gasoline programme currently underway in the USA. Despite the smoothness of the initial implementation of the programme, difficulties may arise in the future. It is concluded that reformulated gasoline prices are more independent of crude oil price changes than conventional unleaded gasoline. Finally, the study suggests that refiners will not reap great profit from investment in the supply of reformulated gasoline because of government restrictions. (UK)

The gasoline retail market in Quebec

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapointe, A.

1998-06-01

A comprehensive study of the current status of the gasoline market in Quebec was presented. The study includes: (1) a review of the evolution of the retail market since the 1960s, (2) the development of a highly competitive sales environment, (3) a discussion of governmental interventions in the retail sales of gasoline, and (4) a discussion of the problems associated with the imposition of a minimum gasoline price. The low increase in demand for gasoline in Quebec since the 1980s has led to a considerable restructuring of the gasoline market. Consumers have little loyalty to specific brands but seek the lowest prices or prefer the outlets that offer the widest variety of associated services such as convenience stores, fast-food and car washes. Gasoline has clearly become a commodity in Quebec. An econometric model of gasoline price adjustments for the Montreal and Toronto urban areas and a summary of government interventions in the retail marketing of gasoline in Canada and the USA are included as appendices. tabs

Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Xiangyun; Fang, Wei; An, Feng; Wang, Yue

2017-01-01

Highlights: • We proposed the concept of autoregressive modes to indicate the fluctuation patterns. • We constructed transmission networks for studying the fluctuation mechanism. • There are different fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series. • Only a few types of autoregressive modes control the fluctuations in crude oil price. • There are cluster effects during the fluctuation mechanism of autoregressive modes. - Abstract: Current existing literatures can characterize the long-term fluctuation of crude oil price time series, however, it is difficult to detect the fluctuation mechanism specifically under short term. Because each fluctuation pattern for one short period contained in a long-term crude oil price time series have dynamic characteristics of diversity; in other words, there exhibit various fluctuation patterns in different short periods and transmit to each other, which reflects the reputedly complicate and chaotic oil market. Thus, we proposed an incorporated method to detect the fluctuation mechanism, which is the evolution of the different fluctuation patterns over time from the complex network perspective. We divided crude oil price time series into segments using sliding time windows, and defined autoregressive modes based on regression models to indicate the fluctuation patterns of each segment. Hence, the transmissions between different types of autoregressive modes over time form a transmission network that contains rich dynamic information. We then capture transmission characteristics of autoregressive modes under different periodic time series through the structure features of the transmission networks. The results indicate that there are various autoregressive modes with significantly different statistical characteristics under different periodic time series. However, only a few types of autoregressive modes and transmission patterns play a major role in the fluctuation mechanism of the crude oil price, and these

A review of gasoline retailing Canada vs United States: Update, 1980-1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

A comparison is presented of the economies of scale achieved by the gasoline retailing sector in Canada and the United States over the period 1980-1990. Gasoline demand increased steadily in the USA and by 1990 was 10% higher than in 1980, while in Canada the fluctuating demand has led to a 12% decline for the same period. Number of automobiles increased 23% in Canada compared to 19% in the USA, while number of retail outlets fell by 5,000 in Canada and 47,000 in the USA. The average distance travelled by automobile increased 11% and 7%, respectively for Canada and the USA, however Canadians drove 7% further than Americans. In 1990, automobiles used ca 200 litres less fuel per year in Canada than the USA. Average sales per outlet increased by 56% in the USA and 10% in Canada. While most of the price difference between American and Canadian gasoline is attributable to taxes, the larger size of American refineries, transportation costs, product slate and product demand affects prices. 6 figs

Misunderstood markets: The case of California gasoline

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Jennifer Ruth

In 1996, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) implemented a new benchmark for cleaner burning gasoline that is unique to California. Since then, government officials have often expressed concern that the uniqueness of petroleum products in California segregates the industry, allowing for gasoline prices in the State that are too high and too volatile. The growing concern about the segmentation of the California markets lends itself to analysis of spatial pricing. Spatial price spreads of wholesale gasoline within the state exhibit some characteristics that seem, on the surface, inconsistent with spatial price theory. Particularly, some spatial price spreads of wholesale gasoline appear larger than accepted transportation rates and other spreads are negative, giving a price signal for transportation against the physical flow of product. Both characteristics suggest some limitation in the arbitrage process. Proprietary data, consisting of daily product prices for the years 2000 through 2002, disaggregated by company, product, grade, and location is used to examine more closely spatial price patterns. My discussion of institutional and physical infrastructure outlines two features of the industry that limit, but do not prohibit, arbitrage. First, a look into branding and wholesale contracting shows that contract terms, specifically branding agreements, reduces the price-responsiveness of would-be arbitrageurs. Second, review of maps and documents illustrating the layout of physical infrastructure, namely petroleum pipelines, confirms the existence of some connections among markets. My analysis of the day-of-the-week effects on wholesale prices demonstrates how the logistics of the use of transportation infrastructure affect market prices. Further examination of spatial price relationships shows that diesel prices follow closely the Augmented Law of One Price (ALOP), and that branding agreements cause gasoline prices to deviate substantially ALOP. Without branding

Competition in the retail gasoline industry

Science.gov (United States)

Brewer, Jedidiah

2007-05-01

This dissertation examines competition in the retail gasoline industry. The first chapter highlights the importance of gasoline in modern society, introduces my work, and places it in the context of the existing academic literature. The second chapter details the institutional structure and profitability of the industry. The vast majority of retail gasoline stations are not directly owned and operated by major oil companies. Instead, most stations are set up under other contractual relationships: lessee-dealer, open-dealer, jobber-owned-and-operated, and independent. Gasoline retailers make relatively low profits, as is the case in many other retail industries, and are substantially less profitable than major oil companies. Gas stations also make less money when retail prices are climbing than when they are falling. As prices rise, total station profits are near zero or negative. When retail prices are constant or falling, retailers can make positive profits. The third chapter describes the entry of big-box stores into the retail gasoline industry over the last decade. The growth of such large retailers, in all markets, has led to a great deal of controversy as smaller competitors with long-term ties to the local community have become less common. I estimate the price impact that big-box stores have on traditional gasoline retailers using cross-sectional data in two geographically diverse cities. I also examine changes in pricing following the entry of The Home Depot into a local retail gasoline market. The results show that big-box stores place statistically and economically significant downward pressure on the prices of nearby gas stations, offering a measure of the impact of the entry of a big-box store. Chapter 4 examines the nature of price competition in markets where some competing retailers sell the same brand. The price effect of having more retailers selling the same brand is theoretically unclear. High brand diversity could give individual retailers

Gasoline taxes or efficiency standards? A heterogeneous household demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Weiwei

2015-01-01

Using detailed consumer expenditure survey data and a flexible semiparametric dynamic demand model, this paper estimates the price elasticity and fuel efficiency elasticity of gasoline demand at the household level. The goal is to assess the effectiveness of gasoline taxes and vehicle fuel efficiency standards on fuel consumption. The results reveal substantial interaction between vehicle fuel efficiency and the price elasticity of gasoline demand: the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency leads to lower price elasticity and weakens consumers’ sensitivity to gasoline price changes. The offsetting effect also differs across households due to demographic heterogeneity. These findings imply that when gasoline taxes are in place, tightening efficiency standards will partially offset the strength of taxes on reducing fuel consumption. - Highlights: • Model household gasoline demand using a semiparametric approach. • Estimate heterogeneous price elasticity and fuel efficiency elasticity. • Assess the effectiveness of gasoline taxes and efficiency standards. • Efficiency standards offset the impact of gasoline taxes on fuel consumption. • The offsetting effect differs by household demographics

Gasoline marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

England-Joseph, J.

1991-06-01

This paper is a discussion of two reports. One, issued in April 1990, addresses gasoline octane mislabeling, and the other, issued in February 1991, addresses possible consumer overbuying of premium gasoline. Consumers can purchase several grades of unleaded gasoline with different octane ratings regular (87 octane), mid-grade (89 octane), and premium (91 octane or above). A major concern of consumer buying gasoline is that they purchase gasoline with an octane rating that meets their vehicles' octane requirements. In summary, it was found that consumers may unknowingly be purchasing gasoline with lower octane than needed because octane ratings are mislabeled on gasoline pumps. At the same time, other consumers, believing they may get better performance, may be knowingly buying higher priced premium gasoline when regular gasoline would meet their vehicles' needs. These practices could be coasting consumers hundred of millions of dollars each year

The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia; Zeng, Jieyin

2013-01-01

This paper estimates the price and income elasticities of demand for gasoline in China. Our estimates of the intermediate-run price elasticity of gasoline demand range between −0.497 and −0.196, and our estimates of the intermediate-run income elasticity of gasoline demand range between 1.01 and 1.05. We also extend previous studies to estimate the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) elasticity and obtain a range from −0.882 to −0.579. - highlights: • The price elasticity of demand for gasoline in China is between −0.497 and −0.196. • The income elasticity of demand for gasoline in China is between 1.01 and 1.05. • The price elasticity of demand for VMT in China is between −0.882 and −0.579

Correlations of stock price fluctuations under multi-scale and multi-threshold scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Sui, Guo; Li, Huajiao; Feng, Sida; Liu, Xueyong; Jiang, Meihui

2018-01-01

The multi-scale method is widely used in analyzing time series of financial markets and it can provide market information for different economic entities who focus on different periods. Through constructing multi-scale networks of price fluctuation correlation in the stock market, we can detect the topological relationship between each time series. Previous research has not addressed the problem that the original fluctuation correlation networks are fully connected networks and more information exists within these networks that is currently being utilized. Here we use listed coal companies as a case study. First, we decompose the original stock price fluctuation series into different time scales. Second, we construct the stock price fluctuation correlation networks at different time scales. Third, we delete the edges of the network based on thresholds and analyze the network indicators. Through combining the multi-scale method with the multi-threshold method, we bring to light the implicit information of fully connected networks.

Part-load performance and emissions of a spark ignition engine fueled with RON95 and RON97 gasoline: Technical viewpoint on Malaysia’s fuel price debate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohamad, Taib Iskandar; How, Heoy Geok

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Recent Malaysia’s gasoline price hike affects mass perception and vehicle sales. • Effects of RON95 and RON97 on a representative engine was experimentally studied. • RON95 produced better torque, power, fuel efficiency and lower NO x . • RON97 gasoline resulted in lower BSFC and lower emissions of CO 2 , CO and HC. • Performance-emission-price cross-analysis indicated RON95 as the better option. - Abstract: Due to world crude oil price hike in the recent years, many countries have experienced increase in gasoline price. In Malaysia, where gasoline are sold in two grades; RON95 and RON97, and fuel price are regulated by the government, gasoline price have been gradually increased since 2009. Price rise for RON97 is more significant. By 2014, its per liter price is 38% more than that of RON95. This has resulted in escalated dissatisfaction among the mass. People argued they were denied from using a better fuel (RON97). In order to evaluate the claim, there is a need to investigate engine response to these two gasoline grades. The effect of gasoline RON95 and RON97 on performance and exhaust emissions in spark ignition engine was investigated on a representative engine: 1.6L, 4-cylinder Mitsubishi 4G92 engine with CR 11:1. The engine was run at constant speed between 1500 and 3500 rpm with 500 rpm increment at various part-load conditions. The original engine ECU, a hydraulic dynamometer and control, a combustion analyzer and an exhaust gas analyzer were used to determine engine performance, cylinder pressure and emissions. Results showed that RON95 produced higher engine performance for all part-load conditions within the speed range. RON95 produced on average 4.4% higher brake torque, brake power, brake mean effective pressure as compared to RON97. The difference in engine performance was more significant at higher engine speed and loads. Cylinder pressure and ROHR were evaluated and correlated with engine output. With RON95, the engine

Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

OpenAIRE

Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

2012-01-01

In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

Gasoline from Wood via Integrated Gasification, Synthesis, and Methanol-to-Gasoline Technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, S. D.; Tarud, J. K.; Biddy, M. J.; Dutta, A.

2011-01-01

This report documents the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) assessment of the feasibility of making gasoline via the methanol-to-gasoline route using syngas from a 2,000 dry metric tonne/day (2,205 U.S. ton/day) biomass-fed facility. A new technoeconomic model was developed in Aspen Plus for this study, based on the model developed for NREL's thermochemical ethanol design report (Phillips et al. 2007). The necessary process changes were incorporated into a biomass-to-gasoline model using a methanol synthesis operation followed by conversion, upgrading, and finishing to gasoline. Using a methodology similar to that used in previous NREL design reports and a feedstock cost of $50.70/dry ton ($55.89/dry metric tonne), the estimated plant gate price is $16.60/MMBtu ($15.73/GJ) (U.S. $2007) for gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced from biomass via gasification of wood, methanol synthesis, and the methanol-to-gasoline process. The corresponding unit prices for gasoline and LPG are $1.95/gallon ($0.52/liter) and $1.53/gallon ($0.40/liter) with yields of 55.1 and 9.3 gallons per U.S. ton of dry biomass (229.9 and 38.8 liters per metric tonne of dry biomass), respectively.

Why did the price of solar PV Si feedstock fluctuate so wildly in 2004–2009?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Yang; Song Yuhua; Bao Haibo

2012-01-01

Great attention has been paid to the origin of observed wild price fluctuations of solar PV Si feedstock in both contract and spot markets during 2004–2009. This paper sheds light on this issue and tries to resolve it by addressing the following questions: what kind of structural shock is underlying the price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock? How can we quantify the magnitude, timing and relative importance of these shocks? What are their dynamic effects on the real price of PV Si feedstock? By carefully studying development conditions, the structural decomposition of the real price of PV Si feedstock is proposed: exchange rate shocks, production cost shocks, aggregate demand shocks and demand shocks specific to feedstock markets. With a Structural Vector Autoregression model, the paper quantifies and verifies the impact of structural shocks on PV Si feedstock real price changes. Based on national data, an analysis is further taken to confirm the essential role of demand shocks specific to feedstock markets in determining sharper price fluctuations during 2004–2009. The results of this study have important implications for national solar PV development, which can be better promoted and administrated if structural shocks in feedstock markets can be carefully evaluated and understood. - Highlights: ► The determination of solar PV Si feedstock price fluctuation is identified and quantified. ► Systematic structural shocks well explain 2004–2009 price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock. ► Production cost and aggregated demand shocks take longer effects on feedstock price. ► Exchange rate and feedstock specific demand shocks explain sharper price fluctuations. ► Development of national PV power should consider effects of structure shocks.

Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huan Chen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

Fossil energy savings and GHG mitigation potentials of ethanol as a gasoline substitute in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, Thu Lan T.; Gheewala, Shabbir H.; Garivait, Savitri

2007-01-01

One of the Thai government's measures to promote ethanol use is excise tax exemption, making gasohol cheaper than gasoline. The policy in favour of biofuels is being supported by their contribution to fossil energy savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. An analysis of energy balance (EnB), GHG balance and GHG abatement cost has been done to evaluate molasses-based ethanol (MoE) in Thailand. A positive EnB of 19.2 MJ/L implies that MoE is a good substitute for gasoline, effective in fossil energy savings. GHG balance assessment based on the baseline scenario shows that emissions are most likely to increase with the substitution. Scenarios using biogas captured from spent wash treatment and rice husk to substitute coal used in ethanol conversion give encouraging results in improving the GHG balance. However, the higher price of MoE over gasoline currently has resulted in high GHG abatement costs, even under the best-case scenario. Compared to the many other climate strategies relevant to Thailand, MoE is much less cost effective. Governed by the rule of supply and demand, a strong fluctuation in molasses price is considered the main cause of volatile MoE price. Once supplies are stable, the trend of price drops would make MoE a reasonable option for national climate policy

Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

OpenAIRE

Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

2015-01-01

Master's thesis in Finance In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the ana...

Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

OpenAIRE

Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

2015-01-01

In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the analysis, and this could indicate...

Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Effect between China’s Refined Oil Prices and International Crude Oil Prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yufeng Chen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper employs an asymmetric error-correction model (AECM, and uses monthly data on wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel products in China and international crude oil prices from February 2006 to October 2013 to examine whether China’s gasoline and diesel prices adjust asymmetrically to international crude oil price changes. Our empirical results suggest that increases and decreases in international oil prices have asymmetric effects on both wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in China, and that both increases and decreases in international oil prices have a greater effect on diesel prices than on gasoline prices in China. If there is no change in the maximum retail price, the asymmetry results from the transmission of wholesale prices in China with international oil prices. However, if there is a change in maximum retail prices, both international oil prices and maximum retail prices cause the asymmetry.

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhaskara Rao, B.; Rao, Gyaneshwar

2009-01-01

Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic.

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhaskara Rao, B. [University of Western Sydney, Sydney1797 (Australia); Rao, Gyaneshwar [University of the South Pacific (Fiji)

2009-10-15

Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic. (author)

Oil price fluctuations and Its effect on GDP growth

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez , Aaron; Nabiyev, Sherzod

2009-01-01

During the year of 2008, the world has experienced historically high oil prices reaching an all time high of 147 USD per barrel in midsummer. The extreme volatility of what is consider the number one source of energy reopened discussions about energy sustainability and the plausible effects of an oil shock in the global economy.   How reliable oil price is as an economic variable predicting fluctuations in GDP growth remains controversial. Several models have been developed by scholars target...

Consumer choice between ethanol and gasoline: Lessons from Brazil and Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pacini, Henrique, E-mail: henrique.pacini@energy.kth.se; Silveira, Semida, E-mail: semida.silveira@energy.kth.se

2011-11-15

The introduction of flex-fuel vehicles since 2003 has made possible for Brazilian drivers to choose between high ethanol blends or gasoline depending on relative prices and fuel economies. In Sweden, flex-fuel fleets were introduced in 2005. Prices and demand data were examined for both Brazil and Sweden. Bioethanol has been generally the most cost-efficient fuel in Brazil, but not for all states. In any case, consumers in Brazil have opted for ethanol even when this was not the optimal economic choice. In Sweden, a different behavior was observed when falling gasoline prices made E85 uneconomical in late 2008. In a context of international biofuels expansion, the example of E85 in Sweden indicates that new markets could experience different consumer behavior than Brazil: demand falls rapidly with reduced price differences between ethanol and gasoline. At the same time, rising ethanol demand and lack of an international market with multiple biofuel producers could lead to higher domestic prices in Brazil. Once the limit curve is crossed, the consumer might react by shifting back to the usage of gasoline. - Research Highlights: > Brazil and Sweden both have infrastructure for high fuel ethanol blends. > Flex-fuel vehicles enable competition between ethanol and gasoline in fuel markets. > Data suggests that consumers make their fuel choice based mainly on prices. > Consumers in Sweden appear to be more price-sensitive than their Brazilian counterparts. > In the absence of international markets, high ethanol prices may drive consumers back to gasoline.

The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Hayes, Dermot J.

2009-01-01

This study quantifies the impact of increasing ethanol production on wholesale/retail gasoline prices employing pooled regional time-series data from January 1995 to March 2008. We find that the growth in ethanol production kept wholesale gasoline prices $0.14/gallon lower than would otherwise have been the case. The negative impact of ethanol on retail gasoline prices is found to vary considerably across regions. The Midwest region has the biggest impact at $0.28/gallon, while the Rocky Mountain region had the smallest impact at $0.07/gallon. The results also indicate that the ethanol-induced reduction in gasoline prices comes at the expense of refiners' profits. We find a net welfare loss of $0.5 billion from the ethanol support policies in multiple markets.

Consumer choice between ethanol and gasoline: Lessons from Brazil and Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pacini, Henrique; Silveira, Semida

2011-01-01

The introduction of flex-fuel vehicles since 2003 has made possible for Brazilian drivers to choose between high ethanol blends or gasoline depending on relative prices and fuel economies. In Sweden, flex-fuel fleets were introduced in 2005. Prices and demand data were examined for both Brazil and Sweden. Bioethanol has been generally the most cost-efficient fuel in Brazil, but not for all states. In any case, consumers in Brazil have opted for ethanol even when this was not the optimal economic choice. In Sweden, a different behavior was observed when falling gasoline prices made E85 uneconomical in late 2008. In a context of international biofuels expansion, the example of E85 in Sweden indicates that new markets could experience different consumer behavior than Brazil: demand falls rapidly with reduced price differences between ethanol and gasoline. At the same time, rising ethanol demand and lack of an international market with multiple biofuel producers could lead to higher domestic prices in Brazil. Once the limit curve is crossed, the consumer might react by shifting back to the usage of gasoline. - Research highlights: → Brazil and Sweden both have infrastructure for high fuel ethanol blends. → Flex-fuel vehicles enable competition between ethanol and gasoline in fuel markets. → Data suggests that consumers make their fuel choice based mainly on prices. → Consumers in Sweden appear to be more price-sensitive than their Brazilian counterparts. → In the absence of international markets, high ethanol prices may drive consumers back to gasoline.

A semiparametric model of household gasoline demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia [Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka 1000 (Bangladesh); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)

2010-01-15

Gasoline demand studies typically generate a single price and income elasticity for a country. It is however possible that these elasticities may differ among various socio-economic groups. At the same time, parametric gasoline demand models may not be flexible enough to capture the changes in price elasticities with different levels of income. This paper models US gasoline demand using more flexible semiparametric techniques, accommodating the possibility of differences in responses among households. The econometric model employs a non-parametric bivariate smoothing for price and income and a parametric representation of other explanatory variables. Possible heterogeneity in price and income elasticities is modelled through interacting price and income with demographic variables. Results show that price responses do vary with demographic variables such as income, multiple vehicle holding, presence of multiple wage earners or rural or urban residential locations. Households' responses to a price change decrease with higher income. Multiple vehicle and multiple earner households also show higher sensitivity to a price change. Households located in urban areas reduce consumption more than those in rural areas in response to an increase in price. Comparison of the flexible semiparametric model with a parametric translog model, however, reveals no significant differences between results, and the parametric models have the advantage of lower computational requirements and better interpretability. (author)

Batteries: Lower cost than gasoline?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Werber, Mathew; Fischer, Michael; Schwartz, Peter V.

2009-01-01

We compare the lifecycle costs of an electric car to a similar gasoline-powered vehicle under different scenarios of required driving range and cost of gasoline. An electric car is cost competitive for a significant portion of the scenarios: for cars of lower range and for higher gasoline prices. Electric cars with ∼150 km range are a technologically viable, cost competitive, high performance, high efficiency alternative that can presently suit the vast majority of consumers' needs.

How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

2013-04-01

In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

The economics of gasoline subsidy cost reduction policy: Case study of Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Akimaya, Muhammad I.

A gasoline subsidy distorts the gasoline market with the resulting inefficiencies and takes substantial revenues that arguably could be spent elsewhere with a better impact on economic growth. Governments with such subsidies are aware of their cost yet face difficulties in removing the policy because of strong resistance from the public. This thesis discusses in three essays the problem faced by the government in removing the gasoline subsidy and provides an alternative policy in reducing the subsidy cost applied to the case of Indonesia. In the first essay, we examine the decision-making process from the government's perspective that has an objective of generating savings to fund other programs while maintaining political power, and the influence that the general population has over the decision. Despite the immense literature on political power, there has yet to be any research that mathematically models the decision-making process of a government with influences from the general population. Under the benchmark scenario, the equilibrium strategy is to keep the subsidy intact. However, the results are found to be very sensitive to the magnitude of the shift in political power as well as the preferences of both the government and the people. In the second essay, we estimate the cross-price elasticity of regular gasoline with respect to premium gasoline price. The importance of such knowledge is to accurately determine the impact of fuel pricing policy that tends to have different rates of tax or subsidy depending on the grade of gasoline. Using data on the Mexican gasoline market, regular gasoline demand is estimated with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Endogeneity of the price and structural break are also investigated. The cross-price elasticities between regular and premium gasoline is found to be -0.895, which confirms high substitutability among gasoline with different grades. In the third essay, we look at the unique case of Indonesia that

Analysis on the Impact of the Fluctuation of the International Gold Prices on the Chinese Gold Stocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiankang Jin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Five gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share and Comex gold futures are chosen to form the sample, for the purpose of analysing the impact of the fluctuation of the international gold prices on the gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share. Using the methods of unit root test, Granger causality test, VAR model, and impulse response function, this paper has analysed the relationship between the price change of the international gold futures and the price fluctuation of gold stocks in Chinese Shanghai and Shenzhen comprehensively. The results suggest the fluctuation of the international gold futures has a strong influence on the domestic futures.

Testing and estimating time-varying elasticities of Swiss gasoline demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neto, David

2012-01-01

This paper is intended to test and estimate time-varying elasticities for gasoline demand in Switzerland. For this purpose, a smooth time-varying cointegrating parameters model is investigated in order to describe smooth mutations of the Swiss gasoline demand. The methodology, based on Chebyshev polynomials, is rigorously outlined. Our empirical finding states that the time-invariance assumption does not hold for long-run price and income elasticities. Furthermore they highlight that gasoline demand passed through some periods of sensitivity and non sensitivity with respect to the price. Our empirical statements are of great importance to assess the performance of a gasoline tax as an instrument for CO 2 reduction policy. Indeed, such an instrument can contribute to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases only if the demand is not fully inelastic with respect to the price. Our results suggest that such a carbon-tax would not be always suitable since the price elasticity is found not stable over time and not always significant.

Transport gasoline demand in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M.N.

1993-01-01

This paper provides an estimate of household gasoline demand in Canada by applying a detailed model to pool time-series (1969-1988) and cross-sectional provincial data. The model recognises three major behavioural changes that households can make in response to gasoline price changes: drive fewer miles, purchase fewer cars, and buy more fuel-efficient vehicles. In the model, fuel economy is treated in considerable detail. The two components of the fuel economy of new cars sold-the technical fuel efficiency of various classes of cars and the distribution of new car sales according to their interior volume rather than their weight - are estimated as functions of economic variables. Car manufacturers are assumed to improve the technical fuel economy according to their expectation of consumer's response to future changes in gasoline prices and general economic conditions. (author)

Research on the trend of Yen exchange rate and international crude oil price fluctuation affected by Japan’s earthquake

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Xiaoguang Li

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Whether this earthquake would become a turning point of the high oil price and whether it would have big impact on yen exchange rate are two issues to be discussed in this paper.Design/methodology/approach: To analyze deeply the internal relations between changes in yen exchange rate caused by Japan’s earthquake and price fluctuation of international crude oil, this research chooses middle rate of yen exchange rate during the 45 days around Japan’s earthquake and price data of international crude oil to do an empirical study, uses VAR model and HP trend decomposition to estimate the mutual effect of yen exchange rate change and price fluctuation of international crude oil in this period.Findings: It has been found in the empirical study with VAR model and HP filter decomposition model on the yen exchange rate and the international crude oil price fluctuation during 45 days around Japan’s earthquake that: the fluctuation of yen exchange rate around the earthquake is one of the main reasons for the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price in that period. The fluctuation of international crude oil price directly triggered by yen exchange rate occupies 13.54% of its total variance. There is a long-term interactive relationship between yen exchange rate and international crude oil price. The upward trend of international crude oil price after the earthquake was obvious, while yen exchange rate remained relatively stable after the earthquake.Originality/value: As economic globalization goes deeper, the influence of natural disasters on international financial market and world economy will become more and more obvious. It has a great revelatory meaning to studying further each kind of natural disaster’s impacts on international financial market and world economics.

The final fifteen feet of hose : the Canadian gasoline industry in the year 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sperber, M.; Beckman, K.; Clavet, F.; Bernard, M.-C.; Bussiere, L.; Frank, J.; Lefebvre, M.

2001-01-01

An up-to-date profile of the Canadian gasoline industry was presented with an effort to address some of the preoccupations of industry stakeholders and the perceptions of Canadian motorists. This study provides new insights into the workings of the industry by providing a balanced perspective on the many contentious issues that affect the industry, particularly retail pricing. The Conference Board's empirical analysis makes use of a new approach which provides a better understanding of how retail prices react to changes in wholesale prices. Competition is the reason why a retail market outcome margin exists in each city based on local conditions. This margin is the basis for price changes in that market and reflects a margin at which most competitors are able to sustain themselves. When changes occur in the wholesale price of crude, the retail price is adjusted depending on whether the actual margin in place is higher or lower than the market outcome margin. Crude oil and taxes make up about 84 per cent of the average price of a litre of regulated unleaded gasoline. The main reason for rising Canadian gasoline prices is the rapid increase in world crude oil prices. The volatility in gasoline prices is a direct result of the competitive nature of the business at the street level and the uniformity of prices reflects the rapid response of individual dealers to the actions of their competitors. Each outlet has fixed costs to cover, therefore average sales volumes per outlet have an important impact on retail margins and prices. It was also emphasized that there is no empirical proof that gasoline prices increase before long weekends, nor is there any proof of asymmetry in price adjustment in the retail market. It was noted that the price of gasoline in Canada and the United States, excluding taxes, is very similar. 15 tabs., 59 figs

What determines the profitability of a retail gasoline outlet? A study for the Competition Bureau of Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, A.

2006-03-01

An independent study was conducted to better understand the key determinants of profitability in the retail gasoline industry. The economic and financial analysis was based on pricing and other financial data collected by the Competition Bureau from representative retail outlets owned by vertically-integrated firms and independent retailers in the Greater Toronto Area and adjoining areas. This study combined economic and accounting techniques to provide an objective opinion regarding allegations of anti-competitive behaviour on the part of vertically-integrated gasoline firms. It evaluated the validity of complaints such as predatory pricing, collusion, retail price-fixing, and forcing the exit of smaller independents from the industry. This document described LECG's distinctive business model that was used to evaluate complex business and organizational behavior. It included a literature review, as well as a comparative economic and profitability analysis of retail gasoline stations. The study showed that movements in both retail and wholesale prices are largely dictated by corresponding fluctuations in crude oil prices. It also showed that there is serious doubt on the possibility of strategic behaviour by vertically-integrated refiners. It was noted that the final evaluation of station efficiency is limited because of missing data on costs incurred by site operators and revenues from ancillary services such as car wash and convenience store sales. It was concluded that the critical factor driving profitability is throughput, which impacts both revenue and average total costs. Since throughput is related to population density, local traffic and degree of local competition, the loss incurred by a specific outlet can be due to poor business strategy or circumstances rather than anti-competitive behaviour. 5 refs., 17 tabs., 21 figs

Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madowitz, M.; Novan, K.

2013-01-01

This paper examines how applying different combinations of excise and sales taxes on motor fuels impact the volatility of retail fuel prices and tax revenues. Two features of gasoline and diesel markets make the choice of tax mechanism a unique problem. First, prices are very volatile. Second, demand for motor fuels is extremely inelastic. As a result, fuel expenditures vary substantially over time. Tying state revenues to these expenditures, as is the case with a sales tax, results in a volatile stream of revenue which imposes real costs on agents in an economy. On July 1, 2010, California enacted Assembly Bill x8-6, the “Gas Tax Swap”, increasing the excise tax and decreasing the sales tax on gasoline purchases. While the initial motivation behind the revenue neutral swap was to provide the state with greater flexibility within its budget, we highlight that this change has two potentially overlooked benefits; it reduces retail fuel price volatility and tax revenue volatility. Simulating the monthly fuel prices and tax revenues under alternative tax policies, we quantify the potential reductions in revenue volatility. The results reveal that greater benefits can be achieved by going beyond the tax swap and eliminating the gasoline sales tax entirely. - Highlights: • We examine how gasoline taxes affect government revenue volatility. • We simulate the impact of California's Gasoline Tax Swap policy. • Sales taxes are shown to magnify price volatility and government revenue volatility. • A pure excise tax policy results in less volatile fuel prices and state revenues. • We argue that reductions in both forms of volatility are welfare enhancing

Recent Trends and Patterns of Gasoline Consumption in Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article analyses recent trends and spatial patterns of gasoline consumption in Nigeria. In particular, it shows that the volume of gasoline consumption in the country fluctuates with changes in economic growth. The pattern of distribution of gasoline consumption indicates that the largest consumption centres are in the ...

Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

Science.gov (United States)

Kumagai, Yoshiaki

2010-04-01

In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

Testing the Alchian-Allen Theorem: A Study of Consumer Behavior in the Gasoline Market

OpenAIRE

Robert Lawson; Lauren Raymer

2006-01-01

This paper uses a data set of daily sales at a single gasoline station over a seven year period to determine if consumers respond to relative price changes among the three grades of gasoline. Based on the reasoning of Alchian and Allen (1964) and Barzel (1976), market shares of higher quality gasoline should increase at the expense of regular grade gasoline when overall gasoline prices increase. The empirical results do not conform to this expectation. We find instead that the consumers in th...

Flex cars and the alcohol price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira, Alex Luiz; Da Silveira, Jaylson Jair; De Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard

2009-01-01

We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative 'flex' car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (author)

Motor Gasoline Market Model documentation report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Motor Gasoline Market Model (MGMM), describe its basic approach and to provide detail on model functions. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. The MGMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price for motor gasoline in the US market; it also calculates end of month stock levels. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or shocks and to determine the effect on market price, demand and stock level

Effects of policy characteristics and justifications on acceptance of a gasoline tax increase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplowitz, Stan A.; McCright, Aaron M.

2015-01-01

Many economists argue that increasing the gasoline tax is an effective way to reduce fuel consumption. Yet, public support for such a tax increase has been rather low among US residents. We performed eight survey experiments (total N approximately 3000) to examine how selected policy characteristics and persuasive messages influence support for a gasoline tax increase. Several policy characteristics significantly increased support for a gasoline tax increase. Having the increase phased in over five years modestly increased support. Compared with giving the extra revenue to the US Treasury’s General Fund, both refunding the extra revenue equally to all American families and having this revenue used for energy efficient transportation strongly increased support. Support for a gasoline tax increase was not affected by the nature of the mechanism to achieve revenue neutrality. Most people supported a 20 cent per gallon tax increase to repair roads and bridges. Explaining how the gasoline tax increase would reduce fuel consumption slightly increased support for a gasoline tax increase, but neither being informed of the high gasoline prices in other advanced industrial countries nor the actual pump price of gasoline at the time of the experiment influenced support for a gasoline tax increase. - Highlights: • Phasing in the tax increase modestly raised support. • Making the tax increase revenue-neutral increased support. • Using the extra revenue for energy efficiency increased support. • Information on high gasoline prices elsewhere did not influence support. • Variation in actual fuel prices did not influence support.

Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? some evidence from an empirical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sentenac Chemin, E.

2009-04-01

We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviours. The high volatility of petroleum prices and thus gasoline prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. Thus, in this paper, we estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the short and the long-term, in two countries: the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. - The United States: (1) The long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low (2) Households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. - India: (1) Price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short run. It is not surprising for an emergent country (2) It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption. (author)

Imports, exports, and Alberta's transmission system impact on price fluctuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, K.

2002-01-01

The roles, responsibilities and objectives of ESBI, a private for-profit company, appointed by the Alberta Government to be the Independent Transmission Administrator in the province, is sketched, prior to a discussion of price volatility in electricity, Alberta interconnections, intertie issues, the economic theory and the reality impact on prices. Given that imports and exports constitute a relatively small proportion of total generation or load in Alberta, price volatility is considered to have been only minimally affected by imports/exports. In contrast, transmission constraints, i.e. the limits on physical capacity of the existing transmission system to accommodate all desired transactions, have significant impact on imports/exports. Factors underlying constraints and price volatility such as uncertainty of generation dispatch, leading to reduced interest to invest, which in turn leads to scarce capacity for imports/exports, and the actions required to reduce uncertainty and address other issues such as congestion management, tariff design and the creation of regional transmission organizations, are also discussed to provide further clarification of the issues. It is suggested that these and other related issues need to be resolved to provide the clarity around transmission access and the tools required to manage price fluctuations

Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sentenac-Chemin, Elodie

2012-01-01

We generally consider that the price elasticity of the energy demand is quite small. But it appears that strong increases in gasoline price lead to modifications in consumer behaviors. The high volatility of petroleum prices and the strong increases since the beginning of 2000 justify an analysis of price effects on gasoline consumption. We estimate the effects of price variations on gasoline consumption, in the United States and India. We use a co-integration modelling to test for long-run relationship between gasoline consumption, income, price and vehicle ownership in the two countries. We use an error correction model to test for short-run prices effects and more precisely for asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in gasoline prices. The main conclusions are the following. Concerning the United States, the long-term price elasticity is relatively high for an industrialised country because gasoline taxes are low, but we show that households are more sensitive to a price increase than a price decrease. About India, price elasticity in the long-run is quite high but is quite small in the short-run. It is not surprising for an emergent country. It seems that there is no asymmetric effect of price variations on gasoline consumption.

Ambiguity Aversion, Asset Prices, and the Welfare Costs of Aggregate Fluctuations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alonso, Irasema; Prado, Mauricio

2015-01-01

with a representative agent facing consumption fluctuations calibrated to match U.S. data from 1889 to 2008. Our experiment is to restrict preference parameters in order to as well as possible match some asset-price facts—the average returns on equity and a short-term risk-free bond—and then compute the welfare...

Assessing the Macroeconomic Importance of Gasoline and Vehicle Spending

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santini, Danilo J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Poyer, David A. [Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2016-05-01

Vector error correction (VEC) was used to test the importance of a theoretical causal chain from transportation fuel cost to vehicle sales to macroeconomic activity. Real transportation fuel cost was broken into two cost components: real gasoline price (rpgas) and real personal consumption of gasoline and other goods (gas). Real personal consumption expenditure on vehicles (RMVE) represented vehicle sales. Real gross domestic product (rGDP) was used as the measure of macroeconomic activity. The VEC estimates used quarterly data from the third quarter of 1952 to the first quarter of 2014. Controlling for the financial causes of the recent Great Recession, real homeowners’ equity (equity) and real credit market instruments liability (real consumer debt, rcmdebt) were included. Results supported the primary hypothesis of the research, but also introduced evidence that another financial path through equity is important, and that use of the existing fleet of vehicles (not just sales of vehicles) is an important transport-related contributor to macroeconomic activity. Consumer debt reduction is estimated to be a powerful short-run force reducing vehicle sales. Findings are interpreted in the context of the recent Greene, Lee, and Hopson (2012) (hereafter GLH) estimation of the magnitude of three distinct macroeconomic damage effects that result from dependence on imported oil, the price of which is manipulated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The three negative macroeconomic impacts are due to (1) dislocation (positive oil price shock), (2) high oil price levels, and (3) a high value of the quantity of oil imports times an oil price delta (cartel price less competitive price). The third of these is the wealth effect. The VEC model addresses the first two, but the software output from the model (impulse response plots) does not isolate them. Nearly all prior statistical tests in the literature have used vector autoregression (VAR) and

The impact of the Asian crisis on the behavior of US and international petroleum prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Li, Huimin

2004-01-01

The strong long-run relationships among the petroleum spot and futures prices have weakened after the Asian crisis as manifested in less co-integration among these prices. In the post-crisis period, the directional causal relationships have either changed the direction as in the case of WTI crude or weakened somewhat as in the case of NYMEX gasoline and heating oil. These changes should complicate the job of those who try to benefit from predicting the movements of petroleum prices after the Asian crisis. In the international gasoline spot markets, movements in the NYMEX gasoline price are found to precede movements in the Gulf Coast and Rotterdam gasoline prices in the pre-crisis period, and the movements of these prices and those of the Singapore price in the post-crisis period, implying that the NYMEX price is the gasoline leader in both periods. The Monday/Friday day-of-the-week effect is only significant for the NYMEX gasoline 1-month and 3-month futures prices and the Gulf Coast gasoline spot. Economic and political shocks related to the spot prices have greater impacts on all prices than shocks related to the futures prices, regardless of the petroleum type and the time period

ASPECTS OF REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS THROUGH DYNAMIC PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela\tENACHESCU

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents aspects regarding the dynamics of prices of petroleum products: gasoline and diesel in Romania in the period 2003(2007-2014. Both focus on relationship-price raw material and finished product by the impact of market prices. Given that the price of fuel is a key factor in economic development but also in the living of population, this paper has proposed to analyze some aspects of the dynamics of prices of petroleum products in correlation with commodity prices in a competitive market in 2003 -2014. In the analized period, price of oil barrel has a dynamics substantially influenced by the global political turbulences but also by lower oil demand due to consumption reduction, especially lately. Increases and decreases were abrupt and unpredictable in the early years of the first decade of the XXI century. Political crises in the Middle East, the economic crisis started in 2007 and especially the crisis in Ukraine and policies adopted by the EU and the US have led to extremely large fluctuations in oil prices from one period to another . This dynamic will only cover the price of petroleum products namely gazoline and diesel for vehicles.

Price Increases in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: Authority to Limit Price Gouging

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Welborn, Angie A; Flynn, Aaron M

2005-01-01

... gasoline prices, in other parts of the country. State laws regarding price gouging in the event of an emergency are discussed as is the role the Federal Government could play in addressing rising gas prices in other parts of the country...

Petroleum products price regulation in Nov Scotia : a six-month review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-03-01

Gasoline pricing regulation was introduced in July 2006 in order to achieve the following 3 main objectives: (1) stabilize prices by reducing the frequency of price changes and creating more uniform pricing across the province, (2) maintain industry infrastructure by slowing or halting the decline in the dealer network, particularly in rural areas, by improving viability through regulated margins, and (3) minimize the cost to consumers since higher prices are expected to result from the actions needed to maintain price stability and the higher margins needed to maintain industry infrastructure. This report examined the extent to which these objectives were achieved and contained the findings and recommendations of a review of the first six months of gasoline price regulation in Nova Scotia. The report discussed the rationale for regulation, study objectives, approach, and warning signs. It also discussed gasoline regulation in Nova Scotia including how regulation works and implementing regulation. The Nova Scotia gasoline market was presented with reference to industry structure; pre-regulation competition and pricing; and how regulation may affect structure and competition. Last, the report discussed whether regulation was meeting the objectives and perspectives on regulation. Several recommendations were presented, such as reducing the benchmark price adjustment period from two weeks to one week; removing the price cap on full-serve gasoline; adopting a fixed and transparent formula for forward averaging and applying it at each adjustment; and considering a framework for regulatory review. 12 refs., 15 figs

Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

Science.gov (United States)

An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

2018-02-01

This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

Press point on prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schilansky, J.L.

2005-06-01

This document presents information and statistical data on the prices of the crude oils, refining and petroleum products, at the date of the 28 June 2005: evolution of the barrel price, supply and demand, geo-policy, consumption, diesel and gasoline, prices at the service station. (A.L.B.)

The crisis of gasoline consumption in the Iran's transportation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houri Jafari, H.; Baratimalayeri, A.

2008-01-01

Fossil fuels have the greatest share in supplying the world's energy demands. Regarding the limited natural resources, fuel consumption management and energy planning in the end-user sectors are two great matters of importance. Among the fossil fuels, gasoline is the principal fuel for light-duty vehicles. In Iran, fuel consumption, especially that of gasoline, has increased sharply with the growth rate of 10.2% for the year 2006 in comparison with that in 2005, turning into a big crisis in the recent years. On the other hand, enormous subsidies for importing 40% of domestic demands, which have reached more than 10 billion US$, are too much to be supplied. In this study, we have assessed the gasoline consumption, production, import and prices; reviewed main causes of the tremendous growth rate of consumption, current conservation policies and their advantages or disadvantages (SWOT analysis); proposed short- to long-term solutions and strategies for efficient gasoline consumption management; and finally, current strategies and proposed solutions are analyzed and evaluated. A foregone conclusion strongly suggests that not only the low price of motor gasoline but also mass production of vehicles with the conventional technology, likewise, affects motor gasoline demand. A second conclusion is that gasoline crisis in Iran has no straight solution, and that fundamental strategies and policies are needed to solve the problem. (author)

Ethanol Demand in United States Gasoline Production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadder, G.R.

1998-11-24

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OWL) Refinery Yield Model (RYM) has been used to estimate the demand for ethanol in U.S. gasoline production in year 2010. Study cases examine ethanol demand with variations in world oil price, cost of competing oxygenate, ethanol value, and gasoline specifications. For combined-regions outside California summer ethanol demand is dominated by conventional gasoline (CG) because the premised share of reformulated gasoline (RFG) production is relatively low and because CG offers greater flexibility for blending high vapor pressure components like ethanol. Vapor pressure advantages disappear for winter CG, but total ethanol used in winter RFG remains low because of the low RFG production share. In California, relatively less ethanol is used in CG because the RFG production share is very high. During the winter in California, there is a significant increase in use of ethanol in RFG, as ethanol displaces lower-vapor-pressure ethers. Estimated U.S. ethanol demand is a function of the refiner value of ethanol. For example, ethanol demand for reference conditions in year 2010 is 2 billion gallons per year (BGY) at a refiner value of $1.00 per gallon (1996 dollars), and 9 BGY at a refiner value of $0.60 per gallon. Ethanol demand could be increased with higher oil prices, or by changes in gasoline specifications for oxygen content, sulfur content, emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCS), and octane numbers.

Interacting price model and fluctuation behavior analysis from Lempel–Ziv complexity and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Rui, E-mail: lirui1401@bjtu.edu.cn; Wang, Jun

2016-01-08

A financial price model is developed based on the voter interacting system in this work. The Lempel–Ziv complexity is introduced to analyze the complex behaviors of the stock market. Some stock market stylized facts including fat tails, absence of autocorrelation and volatility clustering are investigated for the proposed price model firstly. Then the complexity of fluctuation behaviors of the real stock markets and the proposed price model are mainly explored by Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) analysis and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy (MWPE) analysis. A series of LZC analyses of the returns and the absolute returns of daily closing prices and moving average prices are performed. Moreover, the complexity of the returns, the absolute returns and their corresponding intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with MWPE is also investigated. The numerical empirical study shows similar statistical and complex behaviors between the proposed price model and the real stock markets, which exhibits that the proposed model is feasible to some extent. - Highlights: • A financial price dynamical model is developed based on the voter interacting system. • Lempel–Ziv complexity is the firstly applied to investigate the stock market dynamics system. • MWPE is employed to explore the complexity fluctuation behaviors of the stock market. • Empirical results show the feasibility of the proposed financial model.

Interacting price model and fluctuation behavior analysis from Lempel–Ziv complexity and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Rui; Wang, Jun

2016-01-01

A financial price model is developed based on the voter interacting system in this work. The Lempel–Ziv complexity is introduced to analyze the complex behaviors of the stock market. Some stock market stylized facts including fat tails, absence of autocorrelation and volatility clustering are investigated for the proposed price model firstly. Then the complexity of fluctuation behaviors of the real stock markets and the proposed price model are mainly explored by Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) analysis and multi-scale weighted-permutation entropy (MWPE) analysis. A series of LZC analyses of the returns and the absolute returns of daily closing prices and moving average prices are performed. Moreover, the complexity of the returns, the absolute returns and their corresponding intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) derived from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with MWPE is also investigated. The numerical empirical study shows similar statistical and complex behaviors between the proposed price model and the real stock markets, which exhibits that the proposed model is feasible to some extent. - Highlights: • A financial price dynamical model is developed based on the voter interacting system. • Lempel–Ziv complexity is the firstly applied to investigate the stock market dynamics system. • MWPE is employed to explore the complexity fluctuation behaviors of the stock market. • Empirical results show the feasibility of the proposed financial model.

The economics of gasoline retailing : petroleum distribution and retailing issues in the U.S

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kleit, A.N. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

2005-03-31

Some of the controversies surrounding gasoline retailing prices in the United States were discussed with specific reference to zone pricing and non-price vertical restraints. Integrated refiners use a variety of often conflicting distribution methods to transport gasoline to consumers. The use of different retail provisions allows refiners to offer retail outlets to as many markets as possible, and these provisions have been the subject of antitrust scrutiny. Issues concerning refinery growth and capacity were reviewed along with brand management and federal standards. Various types of branded retail outlets were also discussed, along with company operated outlets and franchised dealer outlets. Issues concerning hypermarkets were examined and legal relationships between franchisers and franchisees in the petroleum industry were reviewed in relation to zone pricing. The motivation for non-price vertical restraints was considered, with reference to antitrust and anticompetitive behavior. It was suggested that the best way to analyze the gasoline sector is to examine the extent of margins in the sector. It was concluded that distribution channels help refiners market gasoline. Interactions between distribution channels can create competitive tensions in terms of brand free-riding and brand network operations. The use of price zones and non-price vertical restraints allow integrated refiners to offer retail distribution outlets across as many markets as possible. Antitrust scrutiny has not resulted in successful litigation as the refiners' actions are not expected to afflict consumers. 33 refs., 3 figs.

The economics of gasoline retailing : petroleum distribution and retailing issues in the U.S.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kleit, A.N. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

2005-03-31

Some of the controversies surrounding gasoline retailing prices in the United States were discussed with specific reference to zone pricing and non-price vertical restraints. Integrated refiners use a variety of often conflicting distribution methods to transport gasoline to consumers. The use of different retail provisions allows refiners to offer retail outlets to as many markets as possible, and these provisions have been the subject of antitrust scrutiny. Issues concerning refinery growth and capacity were reviewed along with brand management and federal standards. Various types of branded retail outlets were also discussed, along with company operated outlets and franchised dealer outlets. Issues concerning hypermarkets were examined and legal relationships between franchisers and franchisees in the petroleum industry were reviewed in relation to zone pricing. The motivation for non-price vertical restraints was considered, with reference to antitrust and anticompetitive behavior. It was suggested that the best way to analyze the gasoline sector is to examine the extent of margins in the sector. It was concluded that distribution channels help refiners market gasoline. Interactions between distribution channels can create competitive tensions in terms of brand free-riding and brand network operations. The use of price zones and non-price vertical restraints allow integrated refiners to offer retail distribution outlets across as many markets as possible. Antitrust scrutiny has not resulted in successful litigation as the refiners' actions are not expected to afflict consumers. 33 refs., 3 figs.

The economics of gasoline retailing : petroleum distribution and retailing issues in the U.S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleit, A.N.

2005-01-01

Some of the controversies surrounding gasoline retailing prices in the United States were discussed with specific reference to zone pricing and non-price vertical restraints. Integrated refiners use a variety of often conflicting distribution methods to transport gasoline to consumers. The use of different retail provisions allows refiners to offer retail outlets to as many markets as possible, and these provisions have been the subject of antitrust scrutiny. Issues concerning refinery growth and capacity were reviewed along with brand management and federal standards. Various types of branded retail outlets were also discussed, along with company operated outlets and franchised dealer outlets. Issues concerning hypermarkets were examined and legal relationships between franchisers and franchisees in the petroleum industry were reviewed in relation to zone pricing. The motivation for non-price vertical restraints was considered, with reference to antitrust and anticompetitive behavior. It was suggested that the best way to analyze the gasoline sector is to examine the extent of margins in the sector. It was concluded that distribution channels help refiners market gasoline. Interactions between distribution channels can create competitive tensions in terms of brand free-riding and brand network operations. The use of price zones and non-price vertical restraints allow integrated refiners to offer retail distribution outlets across as many markets as possible. Antitrust scrutiny has not resulted in successful litigation as the refiners' actions are not expected to afflict consumers. 33 refs., 3 figs

Oil price fluctuations and employment in Kern County: A Vector Error Correction approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michieka, Nyakundi M.; Gearhart, Richard

2015-01-01

Kern County is one of the country's largest oil producing regions, in which the oil industry employs a significant fraction of the labor force in the county. In this study, the short- and long-run effects of oil price fluctuations on employment in Kern County are investigated using a Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Empirical results over the period 1990:01 to 2015:03 suggest long-run causality running from both WTI and Brent oil prices to employment. No causality is detected in the short-run. Kern County should formulate appropriate policies, which take into account the fact that changes in oil prices have long-term effects on employment rather than short term. - Highlights: • Kern County is California's largest oil producing region. • Historical data has shown increased employment during periods of high oil prices. • We study the short- and long run effects of oil prices on employment in Kern County. • Results suggest long run causality running from WTI and Brent to employment. • No causality is detected in the short run.

The Multiscale Fluctuations of the Correlation between Oil Price and Wind Energy Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shupei Huang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Wind energy is considered a clear and sustainable substitution for fossil fuel, and the stock index of the wind energy industry is closely related to the oil price fluctuation. Their relationship is characterized by multiscale and time-varying features based on a variety of stakeholders who have different objectives within various time horizons, which makes it difficult to identify the factor in which time scale could be the most influential one in the market. Aiming to explore the correlation between oil price and the wind energy stock index from the time–frequency domain in a dynamic perspective, we propose an algorithm combining the wavelet transform, complex network, and gray correlation analyses and choose the Brent oil price and the international securities exchange (ISE global wind energy index from January 2006 to October 2015 in daily frequency as data sample. First, we define the multiscale conformation by a set of fluctuation information with different time horizons to represent the fluctuation status of the correlation of the oil–wind nexus rather than by a single original correlation value. Then, we transform the multiscale conformation evolution into a network model, and only 270 multiscale conformations and 710 transmissions could characterize 2451 data points. We find that only 30% of conformations and transmissions work as a backbone of the entire correlation series; through these major conformations, we identify that the main factor that could influence the oil–wind nexus are long-term components, such as policies, the status of the global economy and demand–supply issues. In addition, there is a clustering effect and transmissions among conformations that mainly happen inside clusters and rarely among clusters, which means the interaction of the oil–wind nexus is stable over a short period of time.

Techno-economic Analysis for the Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Gasoline via the Methanol-to-Gasoline (MTG) Process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Susanne B.; Zhu, Yunhua

2009-05-01

Biomass is a renewable energy resource that can be converted into liquid fuel suitable for transportation applications. As a widely available biomass form, lignocellulosic biomass can have a major impact on domestic transportation fuel supplies and thus help meet the Energy Independence and Security Act renewable energy goals (U.S. Congress 2007). With gasification technology, biomass can be converted to gasoline via methanol synthesis and methanol-to-gasoline (MTG) technologies. Producing a gasoline product that is infrastructure ready has much potential. Although the MTG technology has been commercially demonstrated with natural gas conversion, combining MTG with biomass gasification has not been shown. Therefore, a techno-economic evaluation for a biomass MTG process based on currently available technology was developed to provide information about benefits and risks of this technology. The economic assumptions used in this report are consistent with previous U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biomass Programs techno-economic assessments. The feedstock is assumed to be wood chips at 2000 metric ton/day (dry basis). Two kinds of gasification technologies were evaluated: an indirectly-heated gasifier and a directly-heated oxygen-blown gasifier. The gasoline selling prices (2008 USD) excluding taxes were estimated to be $3.20/gallon and $3.68/gallon for indirectly-heated gasified and directly-heated. This suggests that a process based on existing technology is economic only when crude prices are above $100/bbl. However, improvements in syngas cleanup combined with consolidated gasoline synthesis can potentially reduce the capital cost. In addition, improved synthesis catalysts and reactor design may allow increased yield.

Projected reformulated gasoline and AFV use in California

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bemis, G.R.

1995-01-01

In the spring to summer of 1996, California will switch from conventional and oxygenated gasolines to reformulated gasoline. This gasoline will be a designer fuel, and generally not available from sources outside California, since California's fuel specifications then will be unique. Thus, it will be important for California refiners to be able to meet the California reformulated gasoline (Cal-RFG) demand. California refiners are investing over $4 billion to upgrade their facilities for Cal-RFG. This represents approximately 40% of the total cost of making Cal-RFG, and is expected to cost 5--15 cents/gallon more than conventional gasoline to produce. Starting in the year 2000, EPA will require use of a similar fuel in seven geographical areas outside of California. The discussion below focuses on the supply, demand and price projections for Cal-RFG

Asymmetric Price Effects of Competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lach, S.; Moraga Gonzalez, J.L.

2017-01-01

When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first-order

Asymmetric price effects of competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lach, S.; Moraga González, José

2017-01-01

When price dispersion is prevalent, a relevant question is what happens to the whole distribution of equilibrium prices when the number of firms changes. Using data from the gasoline market in the Netherlands, we find, first, that markets with N competitors have price distributions that first‐order

Optimal gasoline tax in developing, oil-producing countries: The case of Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antón-Sarabia, Arturo; Hernández-Trillo, Fausto

2014-01-01

This paper uses the methodology of Parry and Small (2005) to estimate the optimal gasoline tax for a less-developed oil-producing country. The relevance of the estimation relies on the differences between less-developed countries (LDCs) and industrial countries. We argue that lawless roads, general subsidies on gasoline, poor mass transportation systems, older vehicle fleets and unregulated city growth make the tax rates in LDCs differ substantially from the rates in the developed world. We find that the optimal gasoline tax is $1.90 per gallon at 2011 prices and show that the estimate differences are in line with the factors hypothesized. In contrast to the existing literature on industrial countries, we show that the relative gasoline tax incidence may be progressive in Mexico and, more generally, in LDCs. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal gasoline tax for a typical less-developed, oil-producing country like Mexico. • The relevance of the estimation relies on the differences between less-developed and industrial countries. • The optimal gasoline tax is $1.90 per gallon at 2011 prices. • Distance-related pollution damages, accident costs and gas subsidies account for the major differences. • Gasoline tax incidence may be progressive in less developed countries

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

OpenAIRE

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2013-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

Report on the Chatham gasoline market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

A request to investigate was made by an independent gasoline retailer in Chatham, Ontario, alleging predatory pricing practices and abuse of dominant position by certain oil companies (Sunoco and Pioneer) during the spring of 1999. The Competition Bureau investigated the complaint and concluded that the conditions required to engage in the sort of anti-competitive conduct that was alleged, did not exist. No evidence of joint price determination at the wholesale or retail level between the two companies was found. The findings of the Competition Bureau detailed in this report disclosed that in the product and geographical market, namely retail gasoline sales in Chatham, Ontario,, there was no dominance by a single firm or group of firms at either the retail or wholesale level as required by Section 79 of the Competition Act, hence no grounds to proceed with an application to the Tribunal under Section 79

The market for gasoline cars and diesel cars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verboven, F.

1999-01-01

In Europe the tax tariff is much lower for diesel fuel than for gasoline. This benefit is used by manufacturers to increase the price of diesel-fueled cars, which limits the possibility to control the use of diesel cars by means of a fiscal policy (tax incidence). Attention is paid to the impact of fiscal advantages for diesel cars on the purchasing behavior of the consumer and the pricing policy (price discrimination) of the car manufacturers. 1 ref

Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India. An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramanathan, R.

1999-01-01

In developing countries like India, consumption of petroleum products has implications on its balance of payments, economic growth and fiscal deficit. Gasoline is one of the prime petroleum products. In this paper, the relationship between gasoline demand, national income and price of gasoline is empirically examined using cointegration and error correction techniques. The time frame of the analysis is from 1972-1973 to 1993-1994. It has been found that gasoline demand is likely to increase significantly for a given increase in the gross domestic product. The increase will be larger in the long-run (2.682) than in the short-run (1.178). Gasoline demand is relatively inelastic to price changes, both in the long and short terms. The error correction model has shown that gasoline demand adjusts to their respective long-run equilibrium at a relatively slow rate, with about 28% of adjustment taking place in the first year. 23 refs

A Partial Backlogging Inventory Model for Deteriorating Items with Fluctuating Selling Price and Purchasing Cost

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui-Ling Yang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In today’s competitive markets, selling price and purchasing cost are usually fluctuating with economic conditions. Both selling price and purchasing cost are vital to the profitability of a firm. Therefore, in this paper, I extend the inventory model introduced by Teng and Yang (2004 to allow for not only the selling price but also the purchasing cost to change from one replenishment cycle to another during a finite time horizon. The objective is to find the optimal replenishment schedule and pricing policy to obtain the profit as maximum as possible. The conditions that lead to a maximizing solution guarantee that the existence, uniqueness, and global optimality are proposed. An efficient solution procedure and some theoretical results are presented. Finally, numerical examples for illustration and sensitivity analysis for managerial decision making are also performed.

Using a spark-spread valuation to investigate the impact of corn-gasoline correlation on ethanol plant valuation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, Natasha; Davison, Matt

2010-01-01

Corn ethanol plants have been criticized for a number of reasons in recent years. This paper provides another ground for criticizing these plants. Historical corn and gasoline prices are uncorrelated, but widespread adoption of corn ethanol production might reasonably lead to future correlation between these prices. We present a real options - like valuation of an ethanol plant as a spark spread between the corn price and the gasoline price. This analysis shows that the value of an ethanol plant monotonically decreases with increasing correlation and the optimal production schedule greatly depends on the correlation. Even relatively small new correlations can result in a significant proportional value decrease; a 50% correlation between corn and gasoline causes ethanol plants to lose 10% of their value. The limiting case of full correlation would lead to a 30% value loss. (author)

Retail fuel price adjustment in Germany: A threshold cointegration approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asane-Otoo, Emmanuel; Schneider, Jan

2015-01-01

Consumers in Germany often complain that retail fuel prices usually adjust quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases and characterize this pricing pattern as market power exploitation. In this paper, we use both weekly national and daily city-specific (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich and Cologne) data to investigate the extent to which retail fuel prices in Germany adjust to changes in the international crude oil price. At the national level with weekly prices, we find positive asymmetries for both gasoline and diesel within the period 2003–2007, reflecting that retail prices react more swiftly to crude oil price increases than decreases. In contrast, for 2009–2013, we observe symmetric adjustment and negative asymmetry for retail diesel and gasoline prices, respectively. The city level analysis supports our findings in the latter time period. Thus, regulatory measures aimed at the retail fuel market over recent years seem to have been effective, and, contrary to consumers' perception, we find no evidence for excessive market power or collusion. - Highlights: • The paper examines the adjustment of German retail fuel (gasoline and diesel) prices to international crude oil price changes. • An error correction model with threshold cointegration is used to investigate the price dynamics. • The findings generally point to a competitive retail fuel pricing, notwithstanding the oligopolistic market structure

The U.S. dollar value of gasoline: Currency crisis in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The recent currency crisis in Europe puts the possibility of European economic union in further jeopardy after the Maastricht Treaty was not approved by the Netherlands earlier this Summer. The increased value of European currencies relative to the US dollar during the past Summer had little effect upon national currency gasoline prices. However, the recent currency devaluations in Italy, Spain, and Portugal, already struggling with weak economies, definitely reduce consumer buying power. Governments may use the high taxes imposed on gasoline as a buffer against higher prices, but still, consumers may buy less gasoline as their money doesn't go as far as it once did. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of Sept. 25, 1992; and (2) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, Sept. 1992 Edition

Predicting short term (1 week to 6 months) fuel prices using EIA data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felts, M.C.

1992-01-01

Events in the oil market from August 1990 to February 1991 provide an excellent case study for understanding the relationship of oil inventories, product inventories, refinery utilization rates and the prices of crude oil and products. This paper presents a basic overview of how the system works and demonstrates how anyone can predict what will happen next using EIA weekly data. The system of analysis require only that one think logically about the factors involved. The system never fails because it is based on certain conditions which do not change, such as the limited capacity of refineries, storage and transportation facilities. As one becomes familiar with the general theory behind this type of analysis, it is possible to accurately predict the behavior of gasoline and diesel prices in separate areas of the US. Because the US is the primary user of crude oil, conditions in the US refining market also significantly influence the price of crude oil. These price fluctuations can also be anticipated by watching the EIA data

Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pock, Markus

2010-01-01

This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

Gasoline demand in Europe. New insights

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pock, Markus [Department of Economics and Finance, HealthEcon IHS - Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna (Austria)

2010-01-15

This study utilizes a panel data set from 14 European countries over the period 1990-2004 to estimate a dynamic model specification for gasoline demand. Previous studies estimating gasoline consumption per total passenger cars ignore the recent increase in the number of diesel cars in most European countries leading to biased elasticity estimates. We apply several common dynamic panel estimators to our small sample. Results show that specifications neglecting the share of diesel cars overestimate short-run income, price and car ownership elasticities. It appears that the results of standard pooled estimators are more reliable than common IV/GMM estimators applied to our small data set. (author)

Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

Rockets and feathers revisited: an international comparison on European gasoline markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galeotti, Marzio; Lanza, Alessandro; Manera, Matteo

2003-01-01

This paper re-examines the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to crude oil prices onto the retail price of gasoline. The distinguishing features are: (i) use of updated and comparable data to carry out an international comparison of gasoline markets; (ii) two-stage modeling of the transmission mechanism, in order to assess possible asymmetries at either the refinery stage, the distribution stage or both; (iii) use of asymmetric error correction models to distinguish between short-run and long-run asymmetries; (iv) explicit, possibly asymmetric, role of the exchange rate; (v) bootstrapping of F-tests of asymmetries, in order to overcome the low-power problem of conventional testing procedures. In contrast to several previous findings, the results generally point to widespread differences in both adjustment speeds and short-run responses when input prices rise or fall. (Author)

Flex-fuel vehicle adoption and dynamics of ethanol prices: lessons from Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Xiaodong; Carriquiry, Miguel A.

2013-01-01

Focusing on dynamics of the relative prices of substitute fuels, namely ethanol and gasoline, this study quantifies the impact of the increase in shares of flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) in the vehicle fleet on the domestic ethanol prices in Brazil. A modified partial adjustment model is employed. Estimation results provide strong support for our research hypotheses: (i) when consumers can choose between the fuels the relative ethanol and gasoline prices converge to a long-run equilibrium level, which is determined by the fuel economy, and (ii) price dynamics are largely determined by market supply and demand factors including the price of sugar, ethanol exports, and composition of vehicle fleet. Furthermore, the impacts of demand factors such as ethanol exports are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs in the vehicle fleet. - Highlights: • The relative prices of ethanol and gasoline in Brazil exhibit strong mean-reversion. • The fuel price dynamics are mainly influenced by supply and demand factors. • The impacts of demand factors are strengthened by the increasing proportion of FFVs

The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buryanova N.V.

2017-08-01

Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

The essence of value : an application of inter generational justice to the price of gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gagnon, F.; Bernard, G.; Cloutier, G.; Coignaud, R.; Couillard, R.; Lampron, J.; Latrasse, C.; Lemire, B.

2001-01-01

This paper was prepared by a group of citizens concerned about the price of gasoline. The paper was presented during public hearings held in Quebec with regard to the price of gasoline and its effects on the economy of Quebec. The voices represented are diverse: some own a car, others do not, but all are confronted, at one time or another, with the price of gasoline. The authors were of the opinion that the price of gasoline is too low, as opposed to the point of view shared by a vast majority of citizens. Gasoline is a polluting, non-renewable energy source that will soon be depleted. Gasoline has detrimental effects on the environment, the economy, quality of life and human health. It also negatively affects other animal species. As a society, the authors argued that we are too concerned with buying the biggest sports utility vehicle, and that we do not rationalize our travels, while complaining about the high price of gasoline. There are solutions, that are based on the principle of inter generational justice. In other words, future generations ought to be offered the same productivity potential as that our generation had access to. Gasoline reserves are being depleted, and we have a responsibility to use it efficiently and with parsimony, while investigating alternative energy sources. Those alternative energy sources should not pollute the environment, or keep it to a bare minimum. Exploitation costs are rising, and it would be wise to invest a portion of the savings realised today to benefit society when exploitation costs have increased considerably. The best way to intervene is to raise gasoline taxes, which would help reduce consumption and free up funds for government to use for other purposes. 43 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

The economic cost of fuel price subsidies in Ghana

Science.gov (United States)

Ofori, Roland Oduro

I adapt the Harberger formula for deadweight loss to develop approximations for the deadweight loss created by multiple fuel price subsidies. I also estimate the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for gasoline and diesel in Africa. I use data on fuel prices and sales in combination with my formulas and elasticity estimates to calculate the deadweight loss of fuel price subsidies in Ghana from 2009 to 2014. I show that the average efficiency cost of the gasoline and diesel price subsidies in Ghana is 0.8% of fuel price subsidy transfers. This result stresses the futility of basing subsidy reforms on economic efficiency losses, which are relatively small due to very inelastic energy demand, and the need for such reforms to be motivated by the poor-targeting of subsidies to low-income households and the impact of subsidies on government debt-financing.

Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait: a case study using a VAR model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltony, M. Nagy; Al-Awadi, Mohammad

2001-01-01

In this study, a vector autoregression model (VAR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984-1998 were utilised. Theoretically and empirically speaking, VECM is superior to the VAR approach. Also, the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense. However, the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues, to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part, the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure, both development and current. However, government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more. The results also point out the significant of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations. On the other hand, the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also, the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter, even more than its own variations. (Author)

Price stabilization for raw jute in Bangladesh

OpenAIRE

Takamasa Akiyama; Varangis, Panos

1991-01-01

Fluctuating prices for raw jute have been viewed as contributing to economic problems in the jute subsector. Price fluctuations were thought to reduce the jute farmers'welfare and there has been concern about the costs of parastatals'stocking operations in attempts to stabilize jute prices and incomes. The authors examine these fluctuations and analyze policies that might reduce them. They find that price fluctuations for raw jute reduce farmers'welfare only slightly because farmers'activitie...

An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentzen, Jan

1994-01-01

Danish time-series data covering the period 1948-91 are used in order to estimate short-run and long-run elasticities in gasoline demand. A cointegration test for a stable long-run relationship between the variables in the model proves to be positive, showing a smaller value of the long-run price elasticity than often quoted in empirical studies of gasoline demand. Finally, an error correction model is estimated. (author)

The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country. The case of Trinidad and Tobago

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorde, Troy; Thomas, Chrystol; Jackman, Mahalia

2009-01-01

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology, this paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, we find that the price of oil is a major determinant of economic activity of the country. Our impulse response functions suggest that following a positive oil price shock, output falls within the first two years followed by positive and growing response. We also investigate the macroeconomic impact of oil price volatility. Results suggest that an unanticipated shock to oil price volatility brings about random swings in the macroeconomy; however, only government revenue and the price level exhibit significant responses. With regard to the magnitude of the responses, shocks to oil price volatility tend to yield smaller macroeconomic impacts in comparison to shocks to oil prices. Variance decompositions suggest that the price of oil is a major component of forecast variation for most macroeconomic variables. Finally, Granger-causality tests indicate causality from oil prices to output and oil prices to government revenue. (author)

A reaction-diffusion model for market fluctuations - A relation between price change and traded volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Yuvan, Steven; Bier, Martin

2018-02-01

Two decades ago Bak et al. (1997) [3] proposed a reaction-diffusion model to describe market fluctuations. In the model buyers and sellers diffuse from opposite ends of a 1D interval that represents a price range. Trades occur when buyers and sellers meet. We show analytically and numerically that the model well reproduces the square-root relation between traded volumes and price changes that is observed in real-life markets. The result is remarkable as this relation has commonly been explained in terms of more elaborate trader strategies. We furthermore explain why the square-root relation is robust under model modifications and we show how real-life bond market data exhibit the square-root relation.

Short‑Term and Long‑Term Relationships Between Prices of Imported Oil and Fuel Products in the U. S.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Václav Adamec

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we analyzed a system of five monthly time series integrated I(1: average price of crude oil imported to the U.S. from OPEC countries (Opec, imported oil price from other than OPEC countries (NonOpec in USD per barrel, average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. (Regular, premium quality gasoline price (Premium and kerosene price (Kerosene in U.S. cents per gallon. Cointegration was established by EG test and the series were analyzed by VECM model with lag selected via BIC criterion. Cointegration rank was determined by the Johansen procedure. According to VECM coefficients, prices of oil from OPEC countries and beyond OPEC exert influence upon all commodity prices in the system, but in a contradictory manner. Responses to innovation shocks in Opec and NonOpec stabilized within 8 to 10 months upon a nonzero shift and further became permanent. Innovation shock in both types of gasoline and Kerosene had only short-term significant impact upon the system. Forecast error variance in all variables is explained mainly by variation in oil prices, especially Opec, which persists with increased horizon. For a short horizon h = 1, FEVDs in gasoline and kerosene prices are primarily made of variation in the respective fuel prices.

Optimal designs of small CHP plants in a market with fluctuating electricity prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, H.; Andersen, A.N.

2005-01-01

Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) are essential for implementation of the climate change response objectives in many countries. In an introduction period, small CHP plants have typically been offered fixed electricity prices, but in many countries, such pricing conditions are now being replaced by spot market prices. Consequently, new methodologies and tools for the optimisation of small CHP plant designs are needed. The small CHP plants in Denmark are already experienced in optimising their electricity production against the triple tariff, which has existed for almost 10 years. Consequently, the CHP plants have long term experience in organising when to switch on and off the CHP units in order to optimise their profit. Also, the CHP owners have long term experience in designing their plants. For instance, small CHP plants in Denmark have usually invested in excess capacity on the CHP units in combination with heat storage capacity. Thereby, the plants have increased their performance in order to optimise revenues. This paper presents the Danish experience with methodologies and software tools, which have been used to design investment and operation strategies for almost all small CHP plants in Denmark during the decade of the triple tariff. Moreover, the changes in such methodologies and tools in order to optimise performance in a market with fluctuating electricity prices are presented and discussed

The demand for gasoline in South Africa. An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akinboade, Oludele A.; Ziramba, Emmanuel; Kumo, Wolassa L.

2008-01-01

Using the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration, suggested by Pesaran et al. (Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001; 16(3) 289-326), we empirically analyzed the long-run relationship among the variables in the aggregate gasoline demand function over the period 1978-2005. Our study confirms the existence of a co-integrating relationship. The estimated price and income elasticities of - 0.47 and 0.36 imply that gasoline demand in South Africa is price and income inelastic. (author)

The demand for gasoline in South Africa. An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Akinboade, Oludele A.; Ziramba, Emmanuel; Kumo, Wolassa L. [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O.Box 392, Pretoria 0003 (South Africa)

2008-11-15

Using the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration, suggested by Pesaran et al. (Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J. Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001; 16(3) 289-326), we empirically analyzed the long-run relationship among the variables in the aggregate gasoline demand function over the period 1978-2005. Our study confirms the existence of a co-integrating relationship. The estimated price and income elasticities of - 0.47 and 0.36 imply that gasoline demand in South Africa is price and income inelastic. (author)

Effect of the 1973 oil price embargo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, R.K.; Morey, M.J.

1993-01-01

This paper focuses on the effect of the oil shock of 1973 on US gasoline demand by examining the price elasticities of demand before and after the 1973 embargo. Price elasticities provide useful input to the development of public policy dealing with taxation and pollution control. The extensive data used include state level observations for nearly three decades spanning 1952-80. We apply non-parametric regression methods that are more appropriate to our investigation than traditional parametric techniques. Unlike standard regression techniques, non-parametric methods neither assume a functional form for the demand relation nor restrict the distribution of the dependent variable. Our results show that the mean price elasticity of gasoline demand for the USA was - 0.243 for 1952-73 and the corresponding number for 1973-80 was - 0.576, statistically different at the 5% level of significance. The relatively higher price elasticity in the post-embargo period is consistent with the hypothesis that consumers sought substitutes and restricted their consumption in response to prices as well as social responsibility. The policy implications of these results are also discussed. (author)

Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayadi, O.F.

2005-01-01

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

The empirical effects of a gasoline tax on CO2 emissions reductions from transportation sector in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Young-Duk; Han, Hyun-Ok; Moon, Young-Seok

2011-01-01

The introduction of carbon tax is expected to mitigate GHG emissions cost-effectively. With this expectation identifying the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand and GHG emission reductions is an interesting issue. One of the basic methods of estimating these impacts is using the price elasticity. There are, however, some unanswered questions regarding the use of price elasticity. First, which elasticity estimates are appropriate to measure the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand? The existing estimates are estimated in the presence of a substitute. To assess the impact of carbon tax could we use these estimates? Second, how can we compromise the differences among the existing estimates depending on estimation methods and specifications? For example, how can we accommodate the difference in the estimates from the regional panel specification and the aggregate specification? This paper tries to answer these questions with the price elasticity of gasoline demand. With an appropriate price elasticity, we show how much gasoline consumption and GHG emissions are reduced by carbon tax for different scenarios of carbon tax rate. - Research highlights: →We offer an appropriate estimate for evaluating the effects of carbon tax. →We estimate the price elasticity of gasoline with instrument variables. →We measure the tax effects on CO 2 emissions from transportation sector.

A history of prices in Canada, 1840-1871: a new wholesale price index

OpenAIRE

Donald G. Paterson; Ronald A. Shearer

2003-01-01

We present a new monthly wholesale price index for Canada, 1840-71, comparing fluctuations in the Canadian macroeconomy with fluctuations in similar U.S. and British indexes. Canadian prices move through distinct phases: the 1840s rise in prices and the decline in the depression of 1848-49; the mid-century economic boom and the 1857 depression; U.S. Civil War inflation and apparent Canadian price insulation through a flexible exchange rate created by U.S. withdrawal from gold; and the non-inf...

Drawing a Roadmap for Oil Pricing Reform

OpenAIRE

Kojima, Masami

2013-01-01

In 2011, the median oil imports rose to 5 percent of gross domestic product for net importers. In the past several years, many governments have not passed through the world oil price increases to consumers fully. As a sign of divergent pricing policies, the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas in January 2013 varied by a factor of 190, 250, and 70, respectively, across develo...

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2015-01-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

2013-11-01

We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

2009-01-01

on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

An analysis of price competitiveness of CNG (compressed natural gas) versus gasoline: estimation of the elasticities of demand by CNG in a recent period in Brazil; Uma analise da competitividade de preco do GNV (Gas Natural Veicular) frente a gasolina: estimacao das elasticidades da demanda por GNV no Brasil no periodo recente

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iootty, Mariana; Pinto Junior, Helder; Roppa, Bruna; Biasi, Guilherme de [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Economia

2004-07-01

One of the main determinants to the expansion of natural gas on the Brazilian domestic market is its price. Hence, it is important to analyze the price competitiveness of natural gas vis-a-vis its competitors. The current paper focuses on the market of natural gas in vehicles (the compressed natural gas - CNG), and uses co-integration techniques to estimate the price-elasticity of CNG, the cross-elasticity of CNG and gasoline, and the income-elasticity. The results suggest that price is a relevant factor in the long-run, while in the short-run income is the most significant determinant of the demand variation. In addition, the paper also shows an imperfect substitutability between CNG and gasoline. (author)

Evolution in fluctuating environments: decomposing selection into additive components of the Robertson-Price equation.

Science.gov (United States)

Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2014-03-01

We analyze the stochastic components of the Robertson-Price equation for the evolution of quantitative characters that enables decomposition of the selection differential into components due to demographic and environmental stochasticity. We show how these two types of stochasticity affect the evolution of multivariate quantitative characters by defining demographic and environmental variances as components of individual fitness. The exact covariance formula for selection is decomposed into three components, the deterministic mean value, as well as stochastic demographic and environmental components. We show that demographic and environmental stochasticity generate random genetic drift and fluctuating selection, respectively. This provides a common theoretical framework for linking ecological and evolutionary processes. Demographic stochasticity can cause random variation in selection differentials independent of fluctuating selection caused by environmental variation. We use this model of selection to illustrate that the effect on the expected selection differential of random variation in individual fitness is dependent on population size, and that the strength of fluctuating selection is affected by how environmental variation affects the covariance in Malthusian fitness between individuals with different phenotypes. Thus, our approach enables us to partition out the effects of fluctuating selection from the effects of selection due to random variation in individual fitness caused by demographic stochasticity. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Evaluation of the use of UCG gas to produce 4000 BPD and 12,000 BPD of methanol with conversion to M-gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlisle, Donald

1981-01-01

This study involves an examination of the technical and economic feasibility of using raw gas from an underground coal gasification facility as feedstock for methanol synthesis, and producing M-gasoline from the methanol. It differs from previous studies in considering facilities smaller than those previously studied. Addressed also is the economic and technical feasibility of using equipment from existing ammonia plants for the production of methanol. Ammonia and methanol plants are very similar in type of equipment used and plant layout. Consequently, it is possible to convert an existing ammonia plant into a methanol facility. Existing ammonia and methanol plants which contain equipment that might be utilized with UCG all use natural gas for feedstock. The processing steps in these plants can be divided into unit operations which are described. The product price analysis shows that significant economies of scale exist for the larger of the two facility sizes considered in this study. The economies of scale are evident for both the methanol/M-gasoline and methanol-only facilities. Compared to current market prices, the calculated product prices for the 4000 BPD and 12,000 BPD methanol-only facilities are within the range of competitiveness with the prices of conventionally produced methanol. The product prices calculated for the 12,000 BPD methanol/4910 BPD M-gasoline facility are, under the most optimistic assumptions, 50% higher than the current market price for unleaded gasoline.

The analysis of volatility of gold coin price fluctuations in Iran using ARCH & VAR models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Younos Vakilolroaya

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in gold price and modeling of its return volatility and conditional variance model. The study gathers daily prices of gold coins as the dependent variable and the price of gold in world market, the price of oil in OPEC, exchange rate USD to IRR and index of Tehran Stock Exchange from March 2007 to July 2013 and using ARCH family models and VAR methods, the study analysis the data. The study first examines whether the data are stationary or not and then it reviews the household stability, Arch and Garch models. The proposed study investigates the causality among variables, selects different factors, which could be blamed of uncertainty in the coin return. The results indicate that the effect of sudden changes of standard deviation and after a 14-day period disappears and gold price goes back to its initial position. In addition, in this study we observe the so-called leverage effect in Iran’s Gold coin market, which means the good news leads to more volatility in futures market than bad news in an equal size. Finally, the result of analysis of variance implies that in the short-term, a large percentage change in uncertainty of the coin return is due to changes in the same factors and volatility of stock returns in the medium term, global gold output, oil price and exchange rate fluctuation to some extent will show the impact. In the long run, the effects of parameters are more evident.

Report of the Select Committee on Petroleum Product Pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dooks, B.

2004-01-01

An all-party Committee of the House of Legislative Assembly of Nova Scotia was established to investigate the pricing of petroleum products such as gasoline and home heating fuel. The Committee conducted public hearings in Halifax, Yarmouth, Bridgewater, Sydney, and Truro, in order to seek input from consumers, producers, suppliers and operators. The mandate of the Select Committee on Petroleum Product Pricing was to investigate the supply and pricing of fuels, including gasoline and home heating oil and to determine whether current prices are justified and fair. This investigation included an examination of the reasons for the current level of product prices; product supply; reasons for volatility in product prices; the rationale for differences in prices across different regions of the province; factors that affect the viability of low volume outlets in the rural and urban marketplace; factors that affect the viability of independent retail operators in the province; and, any evidence of predatory pricing practices at the wholesale and retail levels of the market. The Select Committee also made recommendations related to fair and reasonable product prices at the consumer level, retail and wholesale margins, as well as other actions that may be required to correct imbalances in the distribution and sales of these products to consumers in the province. 8 appendices

Why did the consumption of Gasoline fall?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carta Petrolera

2002-01-01

In the last three years, the Colombians stopped to consume 56.000 daily barrels of gasoline on the average. The economic crisis and the increase of the smuggling were the main reasons. They also influenced other facts as the entrance of Transmilenio in Bogota, the pick and badge and the increment of the prices. The demand of fuels fell 34,5% between 1998 and 2001

Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

2016-01-01

In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations, a new neural network architecture is established in this work which combines Multilayer perception and ERNN (Elman recurrent neural networks) with stochastic time effective function. ERNN is a time-varying predictive control system and is developed with the ability to keep memory of recent events in order to predict future output. The stochastic time effective function represents that the recent information has a stronger effect for the investors than the old information. With the established model the empirical research has a good performance in testing the predictive effects on four different time series indices. Compared to other models, the present model is possible to evaluate data from 1990s to today with extreme accuracy and speedy. The applied CID (complexity invariant distance) analysis and multiscale CID analysis, are provided as the new useful measures to evaluate a better predicting ability of the proposed model than other traditional models. - Highlights: • A new forecasting model is developed by a random Elman recurrent neural network. • The forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations is improved by the model. • The forecasting results of the proposed model are more accurate than compared models. • Two new distance analysis methods are applied to confirm the predicting results.

Coordinating Channels Under Price and Nonprice Competition

OpenAIRE

Ganesh Iyer

1998-01-01

This paper analyzes how manufacturers should coordinate distribution channels when retailers compete in price as well as important nonprice factors such as the provision of product information, free repair, faster check-out, or after-sales service. Differentiation among retailers in price and nonprice service factors is a central feature of markets ranging from automobiles and appliances to gasoline and is especially observed in the coexistence of high-service retailers and lower price discou...

The Australian Dollar's Long-Term Fluctuations and Trend: The Commodity Prices-cum-Economic Cycles Hypothesis

OpenAIRE

Sanidas, Elias

2005-01-01

The Australian dollar’s exchange rate (mainly in relation to the American dollar) has received a considerable attention in research and several models have been proposed to explain its trend and fluctuations. Thus, as a conclusion of this research we can say that this commodity currency very much depends on the terms of trade which in turn depend on commodity prices. The present paper is based on this conclusion and hence proposes the possibility that the Australian dollar’s behavior is overw...

Global progress and backsliding on gasoline taxes and subsidies

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Michael L.; Hazlett, Chad; Mahdavi, Paasha

2017-01-01

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades, many governments will have to reform their energy policies. These policies are difficult to measure with any precision. As a result, it is unclear whether progress has been made towards important energy policy reforms, such as reducing fossil fuel subsidies. We use new data to measure net taxes and subsidies for gasoline in almost all countries at the monthly level and find evidence of both progress and backsliding. From 2003 to 2015, gasoline taxes rose in 83 states but fell in 46 states. During the same period, the global mean gasoline tax fell by 13.3% due to faster consumption growth in countries with lower taxes. Our results suggest that global progress towards fossil fuel price reform has been mixed, and that many governments are failing to exploit one of the most cost-effective policy tools for limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

Impact of gasoline inhalation on some neurobehavioural characteristics of male rats

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Background This paper examines closely and compares the potential hazards of inhalation of two types of gasoline (car fuel). The first type is the commonly use leaded gasoline and the second is the unleaded type enriched with oxygenate additives as lead substituent in order to raise the octane number. The impacts of gasoline exposure on Na+, K+-ATPase, superoxide dismutase (SOD), acetylcholinesterase (AChE), total protein, reduced glutathione (GSH), and lipid peroxidation (TBARS) in the cerebral cortex, and monoamine neurotransmitters dopamine (DA), norepinephrine (NE) and serotonin (5-HT) in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, cerebellum and hypothalamus were evaluated. The effect of gasoline exposure on the aggressive behaviour tests was also studied. Results The present results revealed that gasoline inhalation induced significant fluctuations in the levels of the monoamine neurotransmitters in the studied brain regions. This was concomitant with a decrease in Na+, K+-ATPase activity and total protein content. Moreover, the group exposed to the unleaded gasoline exhibited an increase in lipid peroxidation and a decrease in AChE and superoxide dismutase activities. These physiological impairments were accompanied with a higher tendency towards aggressive behaviour as a consequence to gasoline inhalation. Conclusion It is concluded from the present work that chronic exposure to either the leaded or the unleaded gasoline vapours impaired the levels of monoamine neurotransmitters and other biochemical parameters in different brain areas and modulated several behavioural aspects related to aggression in rats. PMID:19930677

Impact of gasoline inhalation on some neurobehavioural characteristics of male rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinawy, Amal A

2009-11-24

This paper examines closely and compares the potential hazards of inhalation of two types of gasoline (car fuel). The first type is the commonly use leaded gasoline and the second is the unleaded type enriched with oxygenate additives as lead substituent in order to raise the octane number. The impacts of gasoline exposure on Na+, K+-ATPase, superoxide dismutase (SOD), acetylcholinesterase (AChE), total protein, reduced glutathione (GSH), and lipid peroxidation (TBARS) in the cerebral cortex, and monoamine neurotransmitters dopamine (DA), norepinephrine (NE) and serotonin (5-HT) in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, cerebellum and hypothalamus were evaluated. The effect of gasoline exposure on the aggressive behaviour tests was also studied. The present results revealed that gasoline inhalation induced significant fluctuations in the levels of the monoamine neurotransmitters in the studied brain regions. This was concomitant with a decrease in Na+, K+-ATPase activity and total protein content. Moreover, the group exposed to the unleaded gasoline exhibited an increase in lipid peroxidation and a decrease in AChE and superoxide dismutase activities. These physiological impairments were accompanied with a higher tendency towards aggressive behaviour as a consequence to gasoline inhalation. It is concluded from the present work that chronic exposure to either the leaded or the unleaded gasoline vapours impaired the levels of monoamine neurotransmitters and other biochemical parameters in different brain areas and modulated several behavioural aspects related to aggression in rats.

Impact of gasoline inhalation on some neurobehavioural characteristics of male rats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kinawy Amal A

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper examines closely and compares the potential hazards of inhalation of two types of gasoline (car fuel. The first type is the commonly use leaded gasoline and the second is the unleaded type enriched with oxygenate additives as lead substituent in order to raise the octane number. The impacts of gasoline exposure on Na+, K+-ATPase, superoxide dismutase (SOD, acetylcholinesterase (AChE, total protein, reduced glutathione (GSH, and lipid peroxidation (TBARS in the cerebral cortex, and monoamine neurotransmitters dopamine (DA, norepinephrine (NE and serotonin (5-HT in the cerebral cortex, hippocampus, cerebellum and hypothalamus were evaluated. The effect of gasoline exposure on the aggressive behaviour tests was also studied. Results The present results revealed that gasoline inhalation induced significant fluctuations in the levels of the monoamine neurotransmitters in the studied brain regions. This was concomitant with a decrease in Na+, K+-ATPase activity and total protein content. Moreover, the group exposed to the unleaded gasoline exhibited an increase in lipid peroxidation and a decrease in AChE and superoxide dismutase activities. These physiological impairments were accompanied with a higher tendency towards aggressive behaviour as a consequence to gasoline inhalation. Conclusion It is concluded from the present work that chronic exposure to either the leaded or the unleaded gasoline vapours impaired the levels of monoamine neurotransmitters and other biochemical parameters in different brain areas and modulated several behavioural aspects related to aggression in rats.

Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, R.K.; Laskowski, C.

2005-01-01

We revisit the issue of asymmetries in the relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the United States. An econometric analysis of monthly data indicates that the asymmetric relationship between the price of crude oil and motor gasoline is generated by refinery utilization rates and inventory behavior. The asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and home heating oil probably is generated by contractual arrangements between retailers and consumers. Together, these results imply that price asymmetries may be generated by efficient markets. Under these conditions, there is little justification for policy interventions to reduce or eliminate price asymmetries in motor gasoline and home heating oil markets. (author)

Economic impact of the energy price increase in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uri, N.D.; Boyd, R.

1997-01-01

One unknown with regard to the price increases for gasoline and electricity is what will be the expected impact as the Mexican economy struggles to rebound. This is of more than spurious concern since many Mexican industries rely both intensively and extensively on gasoline and electricity to produce their goods and services. For example, the petrochemical and steel manufacturing industries are major consumers in Mexico's industrial sector which accounts for 55% of total energy consumption. Mexico's steel industry is one of the most electricity intensive in the world, with heavy reliance on electric arc furnace technology. Mexico's transportation sector accounts for about 30% of total energy consumption. Higher energy prices are expected to affect significantly the price and quantity of the goods and services produced. The nature and extent of this effect is the subject of this article. Also the modelling approach to be used in assessing the impact of higher energy prices will be discussed. 2 tabs., 20 refs

Evaluation of petroleum products pricing regulation in Nova Scotia : a 2 year review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-11-01

Gasoline price regulation was introduced in Nova Scotia on July 1st, 2006. This report presented the findings and recommendations of a review of the first two years of the gasoline price regulation in Nova Scotia. The regulations had three main objectives. This review examined whether, and to what extent, they were achieved. The objectives were to stabilize price, maintain industry infrastructure, and minimize cost to consumers. The report described the rationale for the regulation, study objectives, and approach taken to gasoline regulation in Nova Scotia, including the objectives and technical aspects of how regulation works. The gasoline market in Nova Scotia was examined, including the market structure and competitive behaviour in an unregulated market. The report also provided some theoretical perspectives on how regulation was likely to affect industry structure and competitive behaviour. The extent to which the regulation was meeting its objectives was then assessed and perspectives on the regulation from consumers, retailers and wholesalers were offered. Last, the report provided a review of the findings in terms of the key elements of regulatory design and set out recommendations for improving the system. It was recommended that in order to improve certainty, particularly given the regulated price differences amongst grades, the regulations should be amended to include grade specifications referencing octane ratings. tabs., figs

Record prices [crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2006-01-01

Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crotte, Amado; Noland, Robert B.; Graham, Daniel J.

2010-01-01

The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by, and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City. (author)

An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crotte, Amado [Mexican Ministry of Communications and Transport, Mexico City (Mexico); Noland, Robert B. [Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, E. J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States); Graham, Daniel J. [Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ London (United Kingdom)

2010-08-15

The majority of evidence on gasoline demand elasticities is derived from models based on national data. Since the largest growth in population is now taking place in cities in the developing world it is important that we understand whether this national evidence is applicable to demand conditions at the local level. The aim of this paper is to estimate and compare gasoline per vehicle demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico. National elasticities with respect to price, income, vehicle stock and metro fares are estimated using both a time series cointegration model and a panel GMM model for Mexican states. Estimates for Mexico City are derived by modifying national estimates according to mode shares as suggested by, and by estimating a panel Within Groups model with data aggregated by borough. Although all models agree on the sign of the elasticities the magnitudes differ greatly. Elasticities change over time and differ between the national and local levels, with smaller price responses in Mexico City. In general, price elasticities are smaller than those reported in the gasoline demand surveys, a pattern previously found in developing countries. The fact that income and vehicle stock elasticities increase over time may suggest that vehicles are being used more intensively in recent years and that Mexico City residents are purchasing larger vehicles. Elasticities with respect to metro fares are negligible, which suggests little substitution between modes. Finally, the fact that fuel efficiency elasticities are smaller than vehicle stock elasticities suggests that vehicle stock size, rather than its composition, has a larger impact on gasoline consumption in Mexico City. (author)

Predicting Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Transactions Based on User Comments and Replies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Young Bin; Kim, Jun Gi; Kim, Wook; Im, Jae Ho; Kim, Tae Hyeong; Kang, Shin Jin; Kim, Chang Hun

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method.

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Yongxiu; Wang, Bing; Wang, Jianhui; Xiong, Wei; Xia, Tian

2013-01-01

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets. -- Highlights: •The Hodrick-Prescott filter and time difference analysis are used to research the correlation among energy prices. •Our study finds that the U.S. and British refined oil prices Granger cause the Chinese refined oil price. •Both Chinese and the Australian coal prices play an important role in the international coal market. •The Chinese terminal electric power and terminal natural gas prices are not highly correlated. •The results are useful for guiding the design of more efficient energy pricing policies in China

26 CFR 48.4081-4 - Gasoline; special rules for gasoline blendstocks.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 16 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Gasoline; special rules for gasoline blendstocks..., Tread Rubber, and Taxable Fuel Taxable Fuel § 48.4081-4 Gasoline; special rules for gasoline blendstocks... gasoline blendstocks. Generally, under prescribed conditions, tax is not imposed on gasoline blendstocks...

GDI fuel sprays of light naphtha, PRF95 and gasoline using a piezoelectric injector under different ambient pressures

KAUST Repository

Wu, Zengyang; Wang, Libing; Badra, Jihad A.; Roberts, William L.; Fang, Tiegang

2018-01-01

This study investigates fuel sprays of light naphtha (LN), primary reference fuel (PRF) and gasoline under different ambient pressures with an outwardly opening piezo gasoline direct injection (GDI) fuel injector. The tested gasoline fuel (regular grade with up to 10% ethanol, E10) was obtained by mixing fuels with AKI (the average of the research octane number (RON) and the motor octane number (MON)) of 87 from three local gas stations. Primary reference fuel (PRF) is commonly used as gasoline surrogate fuel and is blended by iso-octane and n-heptane. PRF95 is the blend of 95% iso-octane and 5% n-heptane by volume. LN fuel was provided by Saudi Aramco Oil Company. Five different ambient pressure conditions varied from 1 bar to 10 bar were tested. The spray was visualized by applying a Mie-scattering technique and a high-speed camera was employed to capture the spray images. The spray structure, spray angle, spray penetration length and spray front fluctuation were analyzed and compared among three fuels. Spray images show that a clear filamentary hollow-cone spray structure is formed for all three fuels at atmospheric conditions, and toroidal recirculation vortexes are observed at the downstream spray edges. A higher ambient pressure leads to a stronger vortex located closer to the injector outlet. Generally speaking, larger spray angles are found under higher ambient pressure conditions for all three fuels. Gasoline fuel always has the largest spray angle for each ambient pressure, while PRF95 has the smallest at most time. For each fuel, the spray front penetration length and spray front penetration velocity decrease with increasing ambient pressure. LN, PRF95 and gasoline show similar penetration length and velocity under the tested conditions. A two-stage spray front fluctuation pattern is observed for all three fuels. Stage one begins from the start of the injection and ends at 450–500 μs after the start of the injection trigger (ASOIT) with a slow

GDI fuel sprays of light naphtha, PRF95 and gasoline using a piezoelectric injector under different ambient pressures

KAUST Repository

Wu, Zengyang

2018-03-20

This study investigates fuel sprays of light naphtha (LN), primary reference fuel (PRF) and gasoline under different ambient pressures with an outwardly opening piezo gasoline direct injection (GDI) fuel injector. The tested gasoline fuel (regular grade with up to 10% ethanol, E10) was obtained by mixing fuels with AKI (the average of the research octane number (RON) and the motor octane number (MON)) of 87 from three local gas stations. Primary reference fuel (PRF) is commonly used as gasoline surrogate fuel and is blended by iso-octane and n-heptane. PRF95 is the blend of 95% iso-octane and 5% n-heptane by volume. LN fuel was provided by Saudi Aramco Oil Company. Five different ambient pressure conditions varied from 1 bar to 10 bar were tested. The spray was visualized by applying a Mie-scattering technique and a high-speed camera was employed to capture the spray images. The spray structure, spray angle, spray penetration length and spray front fluctuation were analyzed and compared among three fuels. Spray images show that a clear filamentary hollow-cone spray structure is formed for all three fuels at atmospheric conditions, and toroidal recirculation vortexes are observed at the downstream spray edges. A higher ambient pressure leads to a stronger vortex located closer to the injector outlet. Generally speaking, larger spray angles are found under higher ambient pressure conditions for all three fuels. Gasoline fuel always has the largest spray angle for each ambient pressure, while PRF95 has the smallest at most time. For each fuel, the spray front penetration length and spray front penetration velocity decrease with increasing ambient pressure. LN, PRF95 and gasoline show similar penetration length and velocity under the tested conditions. A two-stage spray front fluctuation pattern is observed for all three fuels. Stage one begins from the start of the injection and ends at 450–500 μs after the start of the injection trigger (ASOIT) with a slow

The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Statoil

OpenAIRE

Johannessen, Frida; Skjelvik, Karina

2017-01-01

Master's thesis in Finance PROBLEM STATEMENT How do oil price movements impact Statoil ASA? RESEARCH QUESTIONS Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s capital expenditures and operating expenditures? Do oil price fluctuations have an explainable effect on Statoil’s share price? ANALYSIS To analyse the impact of oil price shocks, Ordinary Least Squares regression has been employed for two separate time periods. First, the period from Q4...

Mixtures of bioethanol and gasoline as a fuel for SI engines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stojiljković Dragoslava D.

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The importance of alternative fuels, especially bioethanol and biodiesel, rises due to the limited oil sources, secure supply, prices changes, and environment pollution. Bioethanol is an alternative fuel which will be important in future, as a fuel produced from different crops and lignocelluloses materials. The quality of bioethanol has significant influence on the characteristics of mixtures with gasoline and engine performance. The investigations were performed with the bioethanol obtained as by-product from sugar industry, which is not denaturated and produced according the requests prescribed by standards for ethanol used in mixtures with gasoline. Main target was to examine the possibility of utilisation of bioethanol obtained as by-product and without additional technologies for purification and additional costs. The results of standard and non-standard investigations and engine tests of bioethanol and gasoline mixtures are presented.

Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Escalante

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

Gasoline consumption evolution in Brazil and his elasticities: 1979-2000; Evolucao do consumo de gasolina no Brasil e suas elasticidades: 1979-2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roppa, Bruna Fontes

2007-07-01

This article studies the gasoline demand in Brazil evolution from her price, the alcohol price and the revenue, viewing the examination of conditions for replacement for another fuel, more specifically the alcohol.

The energy price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading—Theory and evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, Fan-Ping; Kuo, Hsiao-I.; Chen, Chi-Chung; Hsu, Chia-Sheng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading from theoretical and empirical models are developed. • The theoretical findings show that the price effects of these two schemes depend on the market structures. • Energy prices under a carbon tax is lower than an issions trading in an imperfectly competitive market. • A case study from Taiwan gasoline market is applied here. - Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to estimate the energy price equivalence of carbon taxes and emissions trading in an energy market. To this end, both the carbon tax and emissions trading systems are designed in the theoretical model, while alternative market structures are taken into consideration. The theoretical findings show that the economic effects of these two schemes on energy prices depend on the market structures. Energy prices are equivalent between these two schemes given the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) reduction when the market structure is characterized by perfect competition. However, energy prices will be lower when a carbon tax is introduced than when emissions trading is implemented in an imperfectly competitive market, which implies that the price effects of a carbon tax and emissions trading depend on the energy market structure. Such a theoretical basis is applied to the market for gasoline in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the gasoline prices under a carbon tax are lower than under emissions trading. This implies that the structure of the energy market needs to be examined when a country seeks to reduce its GHGE through the implementation of either a carbon tax or emissions trading.

On the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline; The case of the USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu Hsing (Southeastern Louisiana Univ., Hammond, LA (US). Dept. of Economics)

1990-04-01

This paper tests the variable elasticity of the demand for gasoline by applying the well-known Box-Cox extended autoregressive (BCEA) model of Savin and White. This model can simultaneously test for functional form and autocorrelation in a time-series regression. Major findings are the log-linear form chosen a priori in most of previous studies can be rejected in favour of the BCEA model; long-run price elasticities varied from -1.118 in 1973 to -0.290 in 1981; and long-run income elasticities declined consistently from 0.944 in 1960 to 0.452 in 1985. These findings have policy implications for more accurate forecast of gasoline demand, gasoline taxes, energy conservation and others. (author).

Assessing market uncertainty by means of a time-varying intermittency parameter for asset price fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Rypdal, Martin; Sirnes, Espen; Løvsletten, Ola; Rypdal, Kristoffer

2013-08-01

Maximum likelihood estimation techniques for multifractal processes are applied to high-frequency data in order to quantify intermittency in the fluctuations of asset prices. From time records as short as one month these methods permit extraction of a meaningful intermittency parameter λ characterising the degree of volatility clustering. We can therefore study the time evolution of volatility clustering and test the statistical significance of this variability. By analysing data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and comparing the results with the investment grade spread, we find that the estimates of λ are lower at times of high market uncertainty.

Delineation of a hydrocarbon (weathered gasoline) plume in shallow deposits at the U.S. Naval Weapons Station, Seal Beach, California. Water Resources Investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeder, R.A.

1991-01-01

Gasoline from a leaking underground storage tank at the U.S. Naval Weapons Station in Seal Beach, California, was found to have spread almost radially through the shallow subsoil a distance of 150 to 300 feet from the source. Deposits in an area of 160,000 square feet in a zone 1 to 2 feet thick above the shallow water table are contaminated. Seasonal and tidal fluctuations in ground water have spread the gasoline vertically in the subsoil and thereby reduced gasoline concentration below residual saturation in nearly all the contaminated area. Total quantity of gasoline contained in gasoline-unsaturated subsoil is estimated to be 5,800 gallons. The quantity present in gasoline-saturated subsoils was not determined

Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youngho Chang; Joonfong Wong

2003-01-01

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small. (Author)

Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Youngho; Wong, Joon Fong

2003-01-01

This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serra, Teresa; Gil, José M.

2012-01-01

This article studies the capacity of biofuels to reduce motor fuel price fluctuations. For this purpose, we study dependence between crude oil and biodiesel blend prices in Spain. Copula models are used for this purpose. Results suggest that the practice of blending biodiesel with diesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases. - Highlights: ► We study the capacity of biofuels to reduce fuel price fluctuations. ► We focus on Spanish biodiesel market. ► Biodiesel and crude oil price dependence is studied using copula functions. ► Biodiesel can protect consumers against extreme crude oil price increases.

Do biofuel blending mandates reduce gasoline consumption? Implications of state-level renewable fuel standards for energy security

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Shinling

In an effort to keep America's addiction to oil under control, federal and state governments have implemented a variety of policy measures including those that determine the composition of motor gasoline sold at the pump. Biofuel blending mandates known as Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) are designed to reduce the amount of foreign crude oil needed to be imported as well as to boost the local ethanol and corn industry. Yet beyond looking at changes in gasoline prices associated with increased ethanol production, there have been no empirical studies that examine effects of state-level RFS implementation on gasoline consumption. I estimate a Generalized Least Squares model for the gasoline demand for the 1993 to 2010 period with state and time fixed effects controlling for RFS. States with active RFS are Minnesota, Hawaii, Missouri, Florida, Washington, and Oregon. I find that, despite the onset of federal biofuel mandates across states in 2007 and the lower energy content of blended gasoline, being in a state that has implemented RFS is associated with 1.5% decrease in gasoline consumption (including blended gasoline). This is encouraging evidence for efforts to lessen dependence on gasoline and has positive implications for energy security.

Impact of regulated price adjustments on price variability in a very low inflation transition economy: Case of Armenia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aghassi Mkrtchyan

2005-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and administrative price adjustments on price variability in a low inflation economy characterized by relatively frequent administrative price adjustments. Fluctuations of market determined prices, prices of agricultural goods in particular, are linked to poor synchronization between administrative price changes and monetary policy. If monetary policy does not account for expected changes in administrative prices, demand for free goods shifts, causing fluctuation of prices for agricultural goods, because the supply of these goods is highly inelastic in Armenia. The findings contribute to a better understanding of agricultural price variability during 1998-2002. The impact of macroeconomic policy and structural adjustments on income distribution and rural poverty incidence are also examined. This research has immediate policy implications, since Armenia will continue to undergo major upward price adjustments of regulated prices, which may have a negative impact on income distribution unless aggregate demand management is changed.

Quantitative analysis on the fluctuation of vegetable price in supermarket

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miranda Suci

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the variables affecting the determination of vegetable sale price in supermarket and investigate each amount considered into the formulation. We use the supermarket pricing strategies literatures, cost management theory, and any information obtained from suppliers and supermarket to investigate the variables influenced the sale price gap between supplier sale price and supermarket sale price. In order to obtain the supermarket sale price, it is required to understand the concept of costs. Supermarket as a merchandising firm has two components of costs called purchase costs and operating expenses which are computed to be Cost of Goods Sold (COGS. We found that supplier sale price is the purchase costs and plays has the main role in determining the supermarket sale price. The operating expenses considered is the holding cost. The vegetable characteristics and consumer behaviour have driven the contribution of amount of variables into the sale price at supermarket. Finally, we present the variables satisfying the vegetable sale price formulation and how they are calculated becoming the supermarket sale price.

Short-term inhalation toxicity of methanol, gasoline, and methanol/gasoline in the rat.

Science.gov (United States)

Poon, R; Chu, I; Bjarnason, S; Vincent, R; Potvin, M; Miller, R B; Valli, V E

1995-01-01

Four- to five-week-old male and female Sprague Dawley rats were exposed to vapors of methanol (2500 ppm), gasoline (3200 ppm), and methanol/gasoline (2500/3200 ppm, 570/3200 ppm) six hours per day, five days per week for four weeks. Control animals were exposed to filtered room air only. Depression in body weight gain and reduced food consumption were observed in male rats, and increased relative liver weight was detected in rats of both sexes exposed to gasoline or methanol/gasoline mixtures. Rats of both sexes exposed to methanol/gasoline mixtures had increased relative kidney weight and females exposed to gasoline and methanol/gasoline mixtures had increased kidney weight. Decreased serum glucose and cholesterol were detected in male rats exposed to gasoline and methanol/gasoline mixtures. Decreased hemoglobin was observed in females inhaling vapors of gasoline and methanol/gasoline at 570/3200 ppm. Urine from rats inhaling gasoline or methanol/gasoline mixtures had up to a fourfold increase in hippuric acid, a biomarker of exposure to the toluene constituent of gasoline, and up to a sixfold elevation in ascorbic acid, a noninvasive biomarker of hepatic response. Hepatic mixed-function oxidase (aniline hydroxylase, aminopyrine N-demethylase and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase) activities and UDP-glucuronosyltransferase activity were elevated in rats exposed to gasoline and methanol/gasoline mixtures. Histopathological changes were confined to very mild changes in the nasal passages and in the uterus, where decreased incidence or absence of mucosal and myometrial eosinophilia was observed in females inhaling gasoline and methanol/gasoline at 570/3200 ppm. It was concluded that gasoline was largely responsible for the adverse effects, the most significant of which included depression in weight gain in the males, increased liver weight and hepatic microsomal enzyme activities in both sexes, and suppression of uterine eosinophilia. No apparent interactive effects

Does energy-price regulation benefit China's economy and environment? Evidence from energy-price distortions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ju, Keyi; Su, Bin; Zhou, Dequn; Wu, Junmin

2017-01-01

China's energy prices have long been regulated due to the critical role energy plays in economic growth and social development, which leads to energy-price distortion to some extent. To figure out whether energy-price regulations will benefit China's economy (measured by GDP growth) and environment (measured by carbon emissions), we conducted an in-depth simulation using path analysis, where five energy products (natural gas, gasoline, fuel oil, steam coal, and coking coal) are selected and three measurements (absolute, relative, and moving) of energy-price distortions are calculated. The results indicate that, with a series of energy pricing policies, the price distortion for a single type of energy has gradually transformed, while the energy pricing system in China is not fully market-oriented yet. Furthermore, China's economy benefits from relative and moving distortions, while the absolute distortions of energy prices have negative impacts on economic growth. Finally, with regard to the environment, carbon emissions call for fewer distortions. - Highlights: • Price distortion for a single type of energy has gradually transformed. • Energy pricing system in China is not yet fully market-oriented. • China's economy benefits from relative and moving distortions. • Absolute distortions of energy prices have negative effects on economic growth. • Carbon emissions call for less pricing distortions.

The empirical effects of a gasoline tax on CO{sub 2} emissions reductions from transportation sector in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young-Duk; Han, Hyun-Ok [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, 30 Jangjeon-Dong, Geumjeong-Gu, Busan 609-735 (Korea, Republic of); Moon, Young-Seok [Energy Policy Research Division, Korea Energy Economics Institute (Korea, Republic of)

2011-02-15

The introduction of carbon tax is expected to mitigate GHG emissions cost-effectively. With this expectation identifying the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand and GHG emission reductions is an interesting issue. One of the basic methods of estimating these impacts is using the price elasticity. There are, however, some unanswered questions regarding the use of price elasticity. First, which elasticity estimates are appropriate to measure the impacts of carbon tax on energy demand? The existing estimates are estimated in the presence of a substitute. To assess the impact of carbon tax could we use these estimates? Second, how can we compromise the differences among the existing estimates depending on estimation methods and specifications? For example, how can we accommodate the difference in the estimates from the regional panel specification and the aggregate specification? This paper tries to answer these questions with the price elasticity of gasoline demand. With an appropriate price elasticity, we show how much gasoline consumption and GHG emissions are reduced by carbon tax for different scenarios of carbon tax rate. (author)

Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Peng

2015-01-01

This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

The Energy Information Administration's assessment of reformulated gasoline: An update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-12-01

This report (Part II) concludes a two part study of The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) assessment of Reformulated Gasoline (RFG). The data contained herein updates EIA's previous findings and analyses on reformulated gasoline as it affects the petroleum industry. The major findings of Part II have not changed considerably from Part I: Supplies of RFG are adequate to meet demand, but a tight supply-demand balance exists, leaving the RFG system with little ability to absorb unexpected supply or delivery system disruption. In December 1994, the estimated demand for RFG was 2.6 million barrels per day, with the production capability just meeting this demand. The study concludes that current prices for RFG are consistent with the costs underlying the product, and the difference in RFG and conventional gasoline indicates confidence in supply. The study also follows the impact of recent events such as: postponement of the Renewable Oxygenate Standard, the decision to require importers to use the U.S. average baseline for limiting emissions, the disruption of the Colonial Pipeline in Texas, and Pennsylvania's request to opt-out of the RFG program

Analysis of Physicochemical Properties of Mexican Gasoline and Diesel Reformulated with Ethanol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Porfirio Caballero-Mata

2012-07-01

Full Text Available High energy prices, environmental issues and increasing importation of fossil fuels has provoked, in some countries, a reorientation of resources towards the development of biofuels that can partially substitute the consumption of fossil fuels. Ethanol is one of the biofuels more commonly used in the world; in the United States, Brazil and Australia gasoline blends that reach up to 85% Ethanol are commercialized. This work presents the results of a physicochemical characterization of commercial Mexican gasoline (Magna and Premium and diesel blends with 10% vol. and 15% vol. anhydrous Ethanol. The analytical testing included: Research Octane Number, Motor Octane Number, Cetane Number, Reid Vapor Pressure, Distillation Curve and Heating Value. The stability of the blends was also evaluated. The theoretical emissions of CO2 were calculated based on the results of the physicochemical characterization. The ethanol-gasoline blends increased their Octane Number with respect to the commercial gasoline, while conserving an appropriate Distillation Index. The Cetane Number of the ethanol-diesel blends showed a substantial decrease, while the heating value of gasoline and diesel blends was negatively affected by the addition of ethanol. Nevertheless, taking into account the credits by the use of a renewable fuel, the use of the reformulated gasoline blends would imply a maximum theoretical reduction of 7.5% in CO2 emissions whereas in the case of ethanol-diesel blends it would represent a 9.2% decrease.

Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

2010-01-01

Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

Environmental Factors Influencing Fluctuation of Share Prices on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nekky Umera

investment decisions when they are aware of the stock market structure, ... is important to examine role played by prices of stocks in encouraging ... implication of this is that stock prices of similar market or industry will tend ... of fiscal policies can help reduce unnecessary volatility in real exchange ..... Expected Dividend.

Biofiltration of gasoline and ethanol-amended gasoline vapors.

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Marlene; Woiciechowski, Adenise L; Kozliak, Evguenii I; Paca, Jan; Soccol, Carlos R

2012-01-01

Assuming the projected increase in use of ethanol as a biofuel, the current study was conducted to compare the biofiltration efficiencies for plain and 25% ethanol-containing gasoline. Two biofilters were operated in a downflow mode for 7 months, one of them being compost-based whereas the other using a synthetic packing material, granulated tire rubber, inoculated with gasoline-degrading microorganisms. Inlet concentrations measured as total hydrocarbon (TH) ranged from 1.9 to 5.8 g m(-3) at a constant empty bed retention time of 6.84 min. Contrary to the expectations based on microbiological considerations, ethanol-amended gasoline was more readily biodegraded than plain hydrocarbons, with the respective steady state elimination capacities of 26-43 and 14-18 gTH m(-3) h(-1) for the compost biofilter. The efficiency of both biofilters significantly declined upon the application of higher loads of plain gasoline, yet immediately recovering when switched back to ethanol-blended gasoline. The unexpected effect of ethanol in promoting gasoline biodegradation was explained by increasing hydrocarbon partitioning into the aqueous phase, with mass transfer being rate limiting for the bulk of components. The tire rubber biofilter, after a long acclimation, surpassed the compost biofilter in performance, presumably due to the 'buffering' effect of this packing material increasing the accessibility of gasoline hydrocarbons to the biofilm. With improved substrate mass transfer, biodegradable hydrocarbons were removed in the tire rubber biofilter's first reactor stage, with most of the remaining poorly degradable smaller-size hydrocarbons being degraded in the second stage.

Recovery of gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1937-02-27

The abstract describes a process for recovering a maximum quantity of commercial gasoline from a composite hydrocarbon stream containing hydrocarbons within and below the gasoline boiling range, including olefins. The hydrocarbon stream is separated into low vapor pressure gasoline and a gas fraction consisting of hydrocarbons of the 4 carbon atom group and some of the 3 carbon atom group. The gas fraction is subjected to a polymerization operation, characterized by utilizing the products of the polymerization procedure - both liquid polymers and unconverted gases - to increase the yield of gasoline and to adjust the low vapor pressure gasoline to the vapor pressure of commercial gasoline. A fraction of the gaseous products of the polymerization procedure are used for this purpose. The remainder of the gaseous products are recycled through the polymerization operation.

Heterogeneous traders, price-volume signals, and complex asset price dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank H. Westerhoff

2005-01-01

model reveal that interactions between fundamentalists and chartists may cause intricate endogenous price fluctuations. Contrary to the intuition, we find that chart trading may increase market stability.

Gasoline sniffing multifocal neuropathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, T M; Shneker, B F; Juel, V C

2001-11-01

The polyneuropathy caused by chronic gasoline inhalation is reported to be a gradually progressive, symmetric, sensorimotor polyneuropathy. We report unleaded gasoline sniffing by a female 14 years of age that precipitated peripheral neuropathy. In contrast with the previously reported presentation of peripheral neuropathy in gasoline inhalation, our patient developed multiple mononeuropathies superimposed on a background of sensorimotor polyneuropathy. The patient illustrates that gasoline sniffing neuropathy may present with acute multiple mononeuropathies resembling mononeuritis multiplex, possibly related to increased peripheral nerve susceptibility to pressure in the setting of neurotoxic components of gasoline. The presence of tetraethyl lead, which is no longer present in modern gasoline mixtures, is apparently not a necessary factor in the development of gasoline sniffer's neuropathy.

The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sadorsky, P.

2000-01-01

This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

The logic of the primary energy prices evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

1992-01-01

This paper deals, very briefly, with the basis factors determining the prices levels of the primary energies and the logic of their evolution both in the short and in the long term. It first gives definitions: of the limits of mineral commodities prices fluctuations and of the long term equilibrium prices. Then, it tries to demonstrate three points: (1) Coal and nuclear electricity prices are driven in the long term only by their own production and environmental costs. Moreover, coal prices fluctuations are surrounded by factors which are basically independent from oil prices. (2) There is no such thing as one single equilibrium price for oil, but several ones, depending on political factors, and among them, on the degree of consensus between the 'Five' of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Irak, Koweit, The Emirates). (3) Natural gas prices are in an intermediate situation, but tend to get closer to the case of coal and nuclear prices. 4 figs

Gasoline poisoning

Science.gov (United States)

... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002806.htm Gasoline poisoning To use the sharing features on this ... This article discusses the harmful effects from swallowing gasoline or breathing in its fumes. This article is ...

40 CFR 80.35 - Labeling of retail gasoline pumps; oxygenated gasoline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Labeling of retail gasoline pumps; oxygenated gasoline. 80.35 Section 80.35 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) REGULATION OF FUELS AND FUEL ADDITIVES Oxygenated Gasoline § 80.35 Labeling...

Oxygenated gasolines according to European specifications for quality and ecological clean gasoline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panovska, Vesna; Tomanovikj, Violeta

1999-01-01

With the phasing out of lead additives from gasoline, the interest for oxygenates as a gasoline components grows up. However, since these materials are not hydrocarbons their behaviour in terms of blending differs from the gasoline which consists of hydrocarbons only. Therefore, it is important to explain their role in blending gasolines according to European specification for motor fuels. It is important to emphasize the oxygenate contribution in production more clean gasoline. In this paper, the oxygenate types and there basic specification features followed by manufacture, laboratory testing and blending specifications with refinery components is presented. (Author)

GTLine – Gasoline as a potential CN suppressant for GTL

KAUST Repository

Reijnders, Jos; Boot, Michael; Johansson, Bengt; de Goey, Philip

2018-01-01

The main driver to investigate low temperature combustion concepts, such as partially premixed combustion (PPC), is the promise of low particulate matter (PM) and nitric oxide (NOx) emissions. A critical prerequisite for PPC is to temporally isolate the fuel injection and combustion events. In practice, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is applied in order to sufficiently extend the ignition delay to that effect. Hereby, in general, higher EGR rates are necessary for fuels with higher cetane numbers (CN). Against this background, the objective of this paper is to investigate the efficacy, with respect to PM-NOx emissions and engine efficiency, of gasoline as a potential gas-to-liquid (GTL) CN suppressant in various dosages. The performance of the resulting GTLine blend will be evaluated under PPC operating conditions in a heavy-duty direct-injected diesel engine. Setting aside for a moment any potential practical issues (e.g., flash point, vapor pressure) that fall outside the scope of this study, our data suggest that blending gasoline to otherwise high CN GTL appears to be a promising route to improve not only the efficiency, but also PM and NOx emissions, particularly when operating in PPC mode. Interestingly, this benefit is notwithstanding the high aromaticity of the gasoline compared to GTL. Given the ongoing dieselization trend and associated surplus of gasoline in many regions, notably Europe, along with the fact that the cost price of gasoline is significantly lower than that of GTL, the proposed GTLine approach promises to be a cost effective way to accommodate GTL in a world wherein low temperature combustion concepts, such as PPC, appear to be really taking off.

GTLine – Gasoline as a potential CN suppressant for GTL

KAUST Repository

Reijnders, Jos

2018-03-23

The main driver to investigate low temperature combustion concepts, such as partially premixed combustion (PPC), is the promise of low particulate matter (PM) and nitric oxide (NOx) emissions. A critical prerequisite for PPC is to temporally isolate the fuel injection and combustion events. In practice, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is applied in order to sufficiently extend the ignition delay to that effect. Hereby, in general, higher EGR rates are necessary for fuels with higher cetane numbers (CN). Against this background, the objective of this paper is to investigate the efficacy, with respect to PM-NOx emissions and engine efficiency, of gasoline as a potential gas-to-liquid (GTL) CN suppressant in various dosages. The performance of the resulting GTLine blend will be evaluated under PPC operating conditions in a heavy-duty direct-injected diesel engine. Setting aside for a moment any potential practical issues (e.g., flash point, vapor pressure) that fall outside the scope of this study, our data suggest that blending gasoline to otherwise high CN GTL appears to be a promising route to improve not only the efficiency, but also PM and NOx emissions, particularly when operating in PPC mode. Interestingly, this benefit is notwithstanding the high aromaticity of the gasoline compared to GTL. Given the ongoing dieselization trend and associated surplus of gasoline in many regions, notably Europe, along with the fact that the cost price of gasoline is significantly lower than that of GTL, the proposed GTLine approach promises to be a cost effective way to accommodate GTL in a world wherein low temperature combustion concepts, such as PPC, appear to be really taking off.

Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saif Ghouri, Salman

2006-01-01

This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between US monthly ending oil stocks position with that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices from February 1995 to July 2004. The paper concludes if other things are held constant, WTI is inversely related to the petroleum products (PPP), combined petroleum products and crude oil (CPPP), crude oil alone (Crude), total oil stocks including petroleum products, crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves SPR (Total), total gasoline (TGO), total distillate (TDO). It could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with SPR when run alone. One percent increase (decrease) in CPPP, PPP, Crude, Total, TGO and TDO leads to decrease (increase) in WTI, respectively, by 0.70, 0.43, 0.37, 0.97, 0.26 and 0.21 percent. Oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and Crude and PPP inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels. Despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in SPR from January 2001 to April 2004, it did not result in easing of oil prices. Primarily because SPR are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the President of United States, they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply-demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices. The aggressive SPR buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, that encourages US government to enhance its SPR to meet any short-term eventuality. The analyst must keep a close eye on CPPP and the total oil stocks variation to forecast WTI in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run. SPR, on the other hand, are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run

Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saif Ghouri, Salman [Business Environment Section, Corporate Planning Department, Qatar Petroleum, Doha (Qatar)]. E-mail: ghouri@qp.com.qa

2006-11-15

This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between US monthly ending oil stocks position with that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices from February 1995 to July 2004. The paper concludes if other things are held constant, WTI is inversely related to the petroleum products (PPP), combined petroleum products and crude oil (CPPP), crude oil alone (Crude), total oil stocks including petroleum products, crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves SPR (Total), total gasoline (TGO), total distillate (TDO). It could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with SPR when run alone. One percent increase (decrease) in CPPP, PPP, Crude, Total, TGO and TDO leads to decrease (increase) in WTI, respectively, by 0.70, 0.43, 0.37, 0.97, 0.26 and 0.21 percent. Oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and Crude and PPP inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels. Despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in SPR from January 2001 to April 2004, it did not result in easing of oil prices. Primarily because SPR are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the President of United States, they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply-demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices. The aggressive SPR buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, that encourages US government to enhance its SPR to meet any short-term eventuality. The analyst must keep a close eye on CPPP and the total oil stocks variation to forecast WTI in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run. SPR, on the other hand, are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run.

Improving gasoline quality produced from MIDOR light naphtha isomerization unit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.F. Mohamed

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Isomerization process became one of the best gasoline production sources, as it gives a high octane product while saving environment from pollution impacts. This paper presents a practical study that aims to improve the gasoline quality and economic income of an existing light naphtha isomerization unit used for octane improvement. The study included selecting the optimum combination of isomerization unit equipment that gives better product specifications for a specified feed. Eight scenarios were studied and simulated to predict the product specs. The original studied unit is MIDOR light naphtha isomerization unit at Alexandria-Egypt that recycles the unconverted hexane (C6. The other studied scenarios were adding fractionators for separating feed iso-pentanes, and recycling unconverted pentanes, hexanes and/or combinations of these fractionators. The results show a change in octane number of gasoline product for a specific feed. Once through process with no extra fractionators has lower octane number of 81 while that with de-iso-pentanizer–de-pentanizer and de-hexanizer produces gasoline with 92.3 octane number. Detailed economic study was done to calculate the return on investment “ROI” for each process option based on equipment, utilities, feed and product prices. Once through simple isomerization unit had the lowest ROI of 14.3% per year while the combination of De-iso-pentanizer with the De-hexanizer had the best ROI of 26.6% per year.

Analysis of Price Fluctuations in an Artificial Market

OpenAIRE

鈴木, 卓弥; 工藤, 清

2004-01-01

We proposed simple mathematical model of the artificial market which consists of the many agents. Our model gives to each agent characteristic period for that interval he can entry into the stock market. They take the strategy "following the trend", i.e., "if it rises, he buys, and if it goes down, he sells". They take, however, opposite strategy "against market trend", if price change exceeds threshold value. The price change of the market depends on the total tradings of stocks. In our mode...

Time-clustering behavior of sharp fluctuation sequences in Chinese stock markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Ying; Zhuang Xintian; Liu Zhiying; Huang Weiqiang

2012-01-01

Sharp fluctuations (in particular, extreme fluctuations) of asset prices have a great impact on financial markets and risk management. Therefore, investigating the time dynamics of sharp fluctuation is a challenge in the financial fields. Using two different representations of the sharp fluctuations (inter-event times and series of counts), the time clustering behavior in the sharp fluctuation sequences of stock markets in China is studied with several statistical tools, including coefficient of variation, Allan Factor, Fano Factor as well as R/S (rescaled range) analysis. All of the empirical results indicate that the time dynamics of the sharp fluctuation sequences can be considered as a fractal process with a high degree of time-clusterization of the events. It can help us to get a better understanding of the nature and dynamics of sharp fluctuation of stock price in stock markets.

Fuel price impacts and compliance costs associated with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, Adam; Siddiqui, Sauleh

2015-01-01

US policy instruments concerning vehicle biofuels are currently being revisited. For example, as part of an on-going annual Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) implementation, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requests stakeholder feedback/analysis of programmatic effects, including impacts on gasoline/diesel prices and compliance costs. Motivated by the need for regulatory-specific feedback, a novel regional market model is developed that quantifies price impacts across different regional markets for a number of market variables, including several types of compliance certificates known as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). An analysis of the most recent EPA proposal suggests that the D4 (biodiesel) RIN price could rise to >$1.00/RIN. Sensitivity results show that the D4 RIN price is highly sensitive to soybean oil prices, while D5/D6 RIN prices are most sensitive to the volume of E85 consumed. It was found that the projected costs associated with the RFS in 2017 could be reduced by approximately 50% if an additional 600 million gallons of E85 were consumed. The analysis also suggests that the RFS does not dramatically affect the retail price of either gasoline and diesel fuels paid by consumers. - Highlights: • The most recent EPA could cause the biodiesel RIN price to rise to >$1.00/RIN. • D5/D6 RIN prices are most sensitive to the volume of E85 consumed. • Retail prices for fuel do not change dramatically. • 2017 compliance costs could fall by 50% if more E85 were consumed.

Oil transformation sector modelling: price interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurer, A.

1992-01-01

A global oil and oil product prices evolution model is proposed that covers the transformation sector incidence and the final user price establishment together with price interactions between gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons. High disparities among oil product prices in the various consumer zones (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are well described and compared with the low differences between oil supply prices in these zones. Final user price fluctuations are shown to be induced by transformation differences and competition; natural gas market is also modelled

Volatilization of gasoline from soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthus, P.

1993-05-01

Gasoline contaminated soil threatens water resources and air quality. The extent of the threat depends on gasoline behavior in soil, which is affected by various mechanisms such as volatilization. To quantify volatilization, gasoline spills were simulated in the laboratory using a synthetic gasoline and three dry soils. Total gasoline and individual gasoline compound concentrations in soil were monitored as a function of depth and time. The time to reduce overall gasoline concentration in coarse sand, sandy loam, and silt loam to 40% of initial concentration, averaged between surface and a 200-mm depth, ranged from 0.25 d to 10 d. A wicking phenomenon which contributed to gasoline flux toward the atmosphere was indicated by behavior of a low-volatility gasoline compound. Based on separate wicking experiments, this bulk immiscible movement was estimated at an upward velocity of 0.09 m/d for Delhi sandy loam and 0.05 m/d for Elora silt loam. 70 refs., 24 figs., 34 tabs

Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nastari, Plinio Mario

1993-01-01

The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country

Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Jingping

This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

North America markets for alcohol and alcohol-derived motor fuels and need for tax incentives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haigwood, B.

1991-01-01

The U.S. fuel alcohol and ether industry has grown from its infancy in 1979 to approximately 2.9 billion gallons of production capacity in 1991. With the emphasis on clean air, the uncertainties in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices, IRI believes the demand for alcohol-derived motor fuels is poised to begin a second phase of expansion. Historically, the two primary alcohol-derived motor fuels sold in the U.S. have been methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol. There is also a limited but growing use of methanol as 85% blendstock for gasoline. Since 1978, fuel ethanol has provided the U.S. petroleum industry with an additional source of supply, octane, and profit. Its price was based on the price of wholesale gasoline plus available federal and state tax incentives. These incentives allowed ethanol, with production costs of $1.00 to $1.25 per gallon, to compete with gasoline at prices of 40 to 65 per gallon. Without the federal and state tax incentives, it would not be economically feasible to sell or manufacture fuel ethanol. On the other hand, the largest consumption of methanol has been as a feedstock for the production of MTBE, the world's fastest growing chemical over the past seven years. MTBE prices are based on the cost of raising the octane level of gasoline, and this commodity does not receive subsidies. Beginning in 1992, IRI predicts the price relationship between ethanol, MTBE, and gasoline will change as U.S. refiners and marketers are required to include oxygenated fuels (alcohol-derived) in their gasoline. In total, over 60 billion gallons of gasoline will need to be reformulated by the year 2000. The increased demand for oxygen will result in a 2.5-billion gallon deficit of MTBE and 1.2-billion gallon deficit of ethanol by the year 2000. 2 tabs

Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Jung-Hua, E-mail: hwaa@mail.ncku.edu.tw [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China); Huang, Yi-Lung [Exploration and Development Research Institute, Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan, No. 1, Dayuan, Wenfa Road, Miaoli City, Miaoli County 36042, Taiwan (China); Liu, Chang-Chen [Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan (China)

2011-07-15

Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: > System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. > Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. > Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. > Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. > FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yi-Lung; Liu, Chang-Chen

2011-01-01

Upon the implementation of the floating price mechanism, Taiwan's gasoline and diesel prices returned to market mechanism, which terminated the phenomenon of the public paying for the losses of the state-owned oil company-Chinese Petroleum Corporation, Taiwan (CPC). Furthermore, the relatively low production costs of the privately owned Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) disclosed the pricing mechanism of CPC, which inspired FPCC to adopt pricing strategy in order to increase the market share. This study aims to establish a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of the floating price mechanism on Taiwan's gasoline and diesel markets. This Model is divided into four sub-systems. The model of this study passed several validation tests, and hence, is able to provide a 'virtual laboratory' for policy-makers to conduct simulation and scenario analysis. The simulation results indicate (a) feedback mechanism of expected revenues and pricing strategy could efficiently simulate the FPCC pricing mechanism, (b) price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues, although the effect on market share is not remarkable, and (c) FPCC has a higher gas-station growth rate. Scenario analyses found (a) lowering oil security stockpile would not change FPCC's pricing strategy and (b) FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations. - Highlights: → System dynamics model analyzes the effects of oil markets' floating price mechanism. → Feedback mechanism of expected revenues could efficiently simulate pricing mechanism. → Price competition strategy could increase FPCC revenues. → Lowering oil security stockpile, FPCC's pricing strategy would not change. → FPCC prefers to follow CPC pricing when it has more gas stations.

Chaotic structure of oil prices

Science.gov (United States)

Bildirici, Melike; Sonustun, Fulya Ozaksoy

2018-01-01

The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relationship, GARCH types of models were used in some papers. Distinctively from the other papers, in this study, we aimed to analyze chaotic pattern of oil prices. Thus, it was used the Lyapunov Exponents and Hennon Map to determine chaotic behavior of oil prices for the selected time period.

Evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamoto, Katsuhiro; Hiramatsu, Muneyuki; Hino, Tomonori; Otake, Takuma; Okamoto, Takashi; Miyamoto, Hiroki; Honma, Masakatsu; Watanabe, Norimichi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the molar mass of gasoline. • We proposed an evaporation model assuming a 2-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE. • We predicted the change in the vapor pressure of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation. • The vapor pressures were measured and compared as a means of verifying the model. • We presented the method for predicting flash points of the ETBE-blended gasoline. - Abstract: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming, production of gasoline blended with ethyl tert-buthyl ether (ETBE) is increasing annually. The flash point of ETBE is higher than that of gasoline, and blending ETBE into gasoline will change the flash point and the vapor pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the fire hazard caused by ETBE-blended gasoline would differ from that caused by normal gasoline. The aim of this study was to acquire the knowledge required for estimating the fire hazard of ETBE-blended gasoline. Supposing that ETBE-blended gasoline was a two-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE, we developed a prediction model that describes the vapor pressure and flash point of ETBE-blended gasoline in an arbitrary ETBE blending ratio. We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the relation between molar mass of gasoline and mass loss fraction. We measured the changes in the vapor pressure and flash point of gasoline by blending ETBE and evaporation, and compared the predicted values with the measured values in order to verify the prediction model. The calculated values of vapor pressures and flash points corresponded well to the measured values. Thus, we confirmed that the change in the evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation could be predicted by the proposed model. Furthermore, the vapor pressure constants of ETBE-blended gasoline were obtained by the model, and then the distillation curves were

Evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okamoto, Katsuhiro, E-mail: okamoto@nrips.go.jp [National Research Institute of Police Science, 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0882 (Japan); Hiramatsu, Muneyuki [Yamanashi Prefectural Police H.Q., 312-4 Kubonakajima, Isawa-cho, Usui, Yamanashi 406-0036 (Japan); Hino, Tomonori; Otake, Takuma [Metropolitan Police Department, 2-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8929 (Japan); Okamoto, Takashi; Miyamoto, Hiroki; Honma, Masakatsu; Watanabe, Norimichi [National Research Institute of Police Science, 6-3-1 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0882 (Japan)

2015-04-28

Highlights: • We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the molar mass of gasoline. • We proposed an evaporation model assuming a 2-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE. • We predicted the change in the vapor pressure of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation. • The vapor pressures were measured and compared as a means of verifying the model. • We presented the method for predicting flash points of the ETBE-blended gasoline. - Abstract: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming, production of gasoline blended with ethyl tert-buthyl ether (ETBE) is increasing annually. The flash point of ETBE is higher than that of gasoline, and blending ETBE into gasoline will change the flash point and the vapor pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the fire hazard caused by ETBE-blended gasoline would differ from that caused by normal gasoline. The aim of this study was to acquire the knowledge required for estimating the fire hazard of ETBE-blended gasoline. Supposing that ETBE-blended gasoline was a two-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE, we developed a prediction model that describes the vapor pressure and flash point of ETBE-blended gasoline in an arbitrary ETBE blending ratio. We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the relation between molar mass of gasoline and mass loss fraction. We measured the changes in the vapor pressure and flash point of gasoline by blending ETBE and evaporation, and compared the predicted values with the measured values in order to verify the prediction model. The calculated values of vapor pressures and flash points corresponded well to the measured values. Thus, we confirmed that the change in the evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation could be predicted by the proposed model. Furthermore, the vapor pressure constants of ETBE-blended gasoline were obtained by the model, and then the distillation curves were

Analysis of gasoline and diesel prices and subsidies in Mexico, 2007-2011; Analisis de los precios y de los subsidios a las gasolinas y el diesel en Mexico, 2007-2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tepach M, Reyes [LXI legislatura, Camara de Diputados (Mexico)

2011-07-15

Beginning in December 2009, the federal government reinitiated monthly changes in gasoline and diesel prices in order to reduce subsidies, shifting responsibility to the nation's consumers. From December 2009 to July 2011, Premium gasoline rose from 9.57 to 10.38 pesos per liter, Regular gasoline (Magna) increased from 7.77 to 9.32 pesos per liter and diesel from 8.16 to 9.68 pesos per liter. Gasoline and diesel subsidies in the year 2011 had the following behavior: in December 2009, Premium gasoline in Mexico was 27 cents per liter more expensive than in the United States, and in July 2011 it was 1.12 pesos less expensive per liter in our country. For Regular (Magna) gasoline in December 2009 a subsidy of 64 cents per liter was maintained, and in July 2011 it was 1.33 pesos less expensive per liter in our country. Finally, the subsidy for Diesel was maintained at 1 peso per liter in December 2009, increasing 2.11 pesos per liter in July 2011 with respect to the price observed in the United States. The monetary estimate of income losses by the gasoline industry due to these price differences was 41,421.27 million pesos (mp) during 2010, corresponding to -21,246.55 mp for Regular, 597.22 mp for Premium and -20,771.94 mp for Diesel. For the period January to July 2011, the total income loss experienced by the industry was 48,976.19 mp, corresponding to -28,400.9 mp for Regular, -1,707.6 mp for Premium and -18,867.8 for Diesel. Note that 57.99% of the loss in income was generated through the consumption of Regular gasoline since demand by automobiles continues to be high in the country; Premium was 3.49% and Diesel represented 38.52% of the total subsidy. With regard to the fiscal impact of the subsidy for gasoline and Diesel, during fiscal year 2007 and 2008, there was a transfer to the consumers of 48,324 and 217,609.1 mp, respectively. In fiscal year 2009, a positive balance was collected in IEPS of 3,203.1 mp in federal public funds. For fiscal year 2010 the

Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Zhen-Hua; Zou, Le-Le; Wei, Yi-Ming

2011-01-01

This paper examines carbon price volatility using data from the European Union Emission Trading Scheme from a nonlinear dynamics point of view. First, we use a random walk model, including serial correlation and variance ratio tests, to determine whether carbon price history information is fully reflected in current carbon price. The empirical research results show that carbon price is not a random walk: the price history information is not fully reflected in current carbon price. Second, use R/S, modified R/S and ARFIMA to analyse the memory of carbon price history. For the period April 2005-December 2008, the modified Hurst index of the carbon price is 0.4859 and the d value of ARFIMA is -0.1191, indicating short-term memory of the carbon price. Third, we use chaos theory to analyse the influence of the carbon market internal mechanism on carbon price, i.e., the market's positive and negative feedback mechanism and the heterogeneous environment. Chaos theory proves that the correlation dimension of carbon price increases. The maximal Lyapunov exponent is positive and large. There is no obvious complex endogenous phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics the carbon price fluctuation. The carbon market is mildly chaotic, showing both market and fractal market characteristics. Price fluctuation is not only influenced by the internal market mechanism, but is also impacted by the heterogeneous environment. Finally, we provide suggestions for regulation and development of carbon market.

ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Fakari Sardehae

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

Experimental investigation on SI engine using gasoline and a hybrid iso-butanol/gasoline fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elfasakhany, Ashraf

2015-01-01

Highlights: • iso-Butanol–gasoline blends (iB) using up to 10 vol.% butanol were examined in SIE. • iB extensively decrease the greenhouse effect of SI engine. • iB without engine tuning led to a drop in engine performance at all speeds. • iB provide higher performance and lower CO and CO 2 emissions than n-butanol blends. • iB grant lower CO and UHC than gasoline at <2900 r/min, but overturn at >2900 r/min. - Abstract: Experimental investigation on pollutant emissions and performance of SI engine fueled with gasoline and iso-butanol–gasoline blends is carried out. Engine was operated at speed range of 2600–3400 r/min for each blend (3, 7 and 10 vol.% iso-butanol) and neat gasoline. Results declare that the CO and UHC emissions of neat gasoline are higher than those of the blended fuels for speeds less than or equal to 2900 r/min; however, for speeds higher than 2900 r/min, we have an opposite impact where the blended fuels produce higher level of CO and UHC emissions than the gasoline fuel. The CO 2 emission at using iso-butanol–gasoline blends is always lower than the neat gasoline at all speeds by up to 43%. The engine performance results demonstrate that using iso-butanol–gasoline blends in SI engine without any engine tuning lead to a drop in engine performance within all speed range. Without modifying the engine system, overall fuel combustion of iso-butanol–gasoline blends was quasi-complete. However, when engine system is optimized for blended fuels, iso-butanol has significant oxygen content and that can lead to a leaner combustion, which improves the completeness of combustion and therefore high performance and less emissions would be obtained. Finally, the performance and emissions of iso-butanol–gasoline blends are compared with those of n-butanol–gasoline blends at similar blended rates and engine working conditions. Such comparison is directed to evaluate the combustion dissimilarity of the two butanol isomers and also to

Oil refining in a CO2 constrained world: Effects of carbon pricing on refineries globally

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N.; Arfaj, Abdullah; Babiker, Hassan

2017-01-01

Six aggregated refinery linear programming (LP) models were developed to represent actual refineries in North America, Latin America, Europe (including the CIS), Middle East, Asia (excluding China) and China. The models were used to conduct regional comparative assessments and to evaluate the effects of carbon pricing on refinery operations globally. We found that the average refinery energy efficiencies for the regions were estimated to range from 92.2% to 95.2%. The well-to-refinery gate carbon intensities for gasoline, diesel and jet fuels were estimated to be 17.1 (16.4–19.4), 13.3 (12.5–14.2) and 10.1 (9.6–10.8) gCO2eq/MJ, respectively. If refineries are forced to at least meet the 2014 regional volume demands for oil products, pricing CO 2 would not have an impact on either refinery productions, efficiency or emissions. If refineries are allowed to re-optimize production slates to reduce CO 2 emissions, refineries would opt to increase gasoline yield at the expense of diesel. This is counter intuitive since gasoline has a higher carbon intensity than diesel. The refinery bias against dieselization creates a supply preference toward a less efficient transportation end use. Here, we argue that if carbon pricing is not administered properly, this can lead to emissions leakage from refineries to the road transport sector. - Highlights: • Investigate actual refinery productions in 6 regions globally. • Refineries already operate at the most efficient levels. • Complex refineries tolerate higher CO 2 prices better. • Carbon pricing induces bias against dieselization. • Identify potential emissions leakage.

A booming economy means a bursting trauma system: association between hospital admission for major injury and indicators of economic activity in a large Canadian health region.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Derek J; Das, Debanjana; Mercado, Michelle; Vis, Christine; Kortbeek, John B; Kirkpatrick, Andrew W; Ball, Chad G

2014-05-01

Injury epidemiology fluctuates with economic activity in many countries. These relationships remain unclear in Canada. The annual risk of admission for major injury (Injury Severity Score ≥12) to a high-volume, level-1 Canadian trauma center was compared with indicators of economic activity over a 16-year period using linear regression. An increased risk of injured patient admissions was associated with rising mean gross domestic product (GDP [millions of chained 2002 dollars]) (.36 person increase per 100,000 population/$1,000 increase in GDP; P = .001) and annual gasoline prices (.47 person increase per 100,000 population/cent increase in gasoline price; P = .001). Recreation-related vehicle injuries were also associated with economic affluence. The risk of trauma patient mortality with increasing mean annual GDP (P = .72) and gasoline prices (P = .32) remained unchanged. Hospital admissions for major injury, but not trauma patient mortality, were associated with economic activity in a large Canadian health care region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Production of aviation gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1938-05-25

A process is described for preparing gasoline possessing properties for use as a fuel, particularly for aviation motors, beginning with gasolines composed among others of cyclic hydrocarbons, especially aromatics, consisting in treating the gasoline by means of selective solvents of aromatic hydrocarbons, especially aromatics, and preferably at the same time employing liquid hydrocarbons which are gaseous under normal conditions and adding to the refined product nonaromatics which boil in the range of the gasoline and have an actane number above 95 or which give the mixture an octane number of 82.5.

Evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline.

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, Katsuhiro; Hiramatsu, Muneyuki; Hino, Tomonori; Otake, Takuma; Okamoto, Takashi; Miyamoto, Hiroki; Honma, Masakatsu; Watanabe, Norimichi

2015-04-28

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming, production of gasoline blended with ethyl tert-buthyl ether (ETBE) is increasing annually. The flash point of ETBE is higher than that of gasoline, and blending ETBE into gasoline will change the flash point and the vapor pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the fire hazard caused by ETBE-blended gasoline would differ from that caused by normal gasoline. The aim of this study was to acquire the knowledge required for estimating the fire hazard of ETBE-blended gasoline. Supposing that ETBE-blended gasoline was a two-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE, we developed a prediction model that describes the vapor pressure and flash point of ETBE-blended gasoline in an arbitrary ETBE blending ratio. We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the relation between molar mass of gasoline and mass loss fraction. We measured the changes in the vapor pressure and flash point of gasoline by blending ETBE and evaporation, and compared the predicted values with the measured values in order to verify the prediction model. The calculated values of vapor pressures and flash points corresponded well to the measured values. Thus, we confirmed that the change in the evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation could be predicted by the proposed model. Furthermore, the vapor pressure constants of ETBE-blended gasoline were obtained by the model, and then the distillation curves were developed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International Energy Prices(Exchange Rate and PPP)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jo, Sung Han; Yoo, Dong Heon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2000-11-01

Energy is to be specially important to the Korean economy. In the past the major purpose of Korea's energy policies was to ensure that the energy was supplied at the low cost to encourage and sustain economic development and growth. Therefore, energy prices are distorted by government intervention. And this was the cause of inefficiency in usage of energy. In order to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of energy consumption, new energy pricing should be needed to the energy industry and the Korean economy. It is necessary to compare the domestic energy prices with other countries to improve the energy pricing system including tax, the relative structure of energy price, etc. In order to compare the domestic energy prices to those of other countries, the exchange rate, purchasing power parity and Big Mac index are used for calculation of common currency. We select 12 countries, which are Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan, Mexico and England. The oil products(gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil and light fuel oil), natural gas and electricity are selected to compare the price. (author). 12 refs., 13 tabs.

A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Economics)

1994-04-01

This paper presents evidence concerning the number of common stochastic trends in a system of three petroleum futures prices (crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline) using daily data from 3 December 1984 to 30 April 1993. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach for estimating long-run relations in multivariate vector autoregressive models is used. The results indicate the presence of only one common trend. (author)

Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1980-06-01

The final rules adopted by the President for a Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan are presented. The plan provides that eligibility for ration allotments will be determined primarily on the basis of motor vehicle registrations, taking into account historical differences in the use of gasoline among states. The regulations also provide authority for supplemental allotments to firms so that their allotment will equal a specified percentage of gasoline use during a base period. Priority classifications, i.e., agriculture, defense, etc., are established to assure adequate gasoline supplies for designated essential services. Ration rights must be provided by end-users to their suppliers for each gallon sold. DOE will regulate the distribution of gasoline at the wholesale level according to the transfer by suppliers of redeemed ration rights and the gasoline allocation regulations. Ration rights are transferable. A ration banking system is created to facilitate transfers of ration rights. Each state will be provided with a reserve of ration rights to provide for hardship needs and to alleviate inequities. (DC)

Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Central America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilfredo Toledo

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Using panel data from Central America, this paper studies the determining factors of inflation and aggregate output fluctuations by estimating two Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR models. Price and output variables are included in one of the models, whereas M2 and the price of oil are additional variables in the other one. Findings of this study suggest that price is determined by the demand, while output seems to be influenced mainly by the supply shocks in that area. It was also evidenced that the price of oil does not have a significant impact on the general price level in that region.

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

2018-03-01

Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

Estimates of the price of hydrogen as a medium for wind and solar sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bockris, John O'M.; Veziroglu, T. Nejat

2007-01-01

The rejection of hydrogen as a solution to global warming by becoming the medium of wind and solar was made when gasoline was priced at $1/gallon. From wind, H 2 would now cost (by electrolysis of water and steam) less than $3 for an amount equivalent in energy to that in a gallon of gasoline ('equivalent'). From solar photovoltaics (pv), H 2 would be sinking in price between $8 toward $5 equivalent as the efficiency of solar pv increases toward 20%. Solar thermal's present prices offer about one-half the solar pv prices. Prediction of the maximum of the delivery rate of world oil is [Laherre's Oil Production Forecast, 1950-2150. Reprinted with permission from correspondence with William Horvath, U.S. Department of Energy, March 29, 2001] 2010. Future energy sources will develop inexhaustible energies from wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and wave sources. The common media will be hydrogen and electricity. These sources yield energy at around one-half the cost of nuclear fission. Growing corn to make alcohol involves a net loss of energy and need for a heating mechanism. It may increase the Greenhouse. (author)

Energy Prices and Internal Costs in Croatian Energy System Restructuring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, V. , Magdic, M.

1995-01-01

After social and political changes in 1990, energy prices in Croatia have been getting closer to the West European averages, faster than in the most European countries in transition. The energy prices for industry are almost at the West European level, while the energy prices of electricity and natural gas for households and those of the gasoline are well behind. If the population purchasing power parity (PPP) is taken into account, these relations change. While the internalization of external energy costs is under way in the developed world, it has not practically started yet in Croatia. The Croatian energy system restructuring shall require gradual adjustment of energy prices, together with multistage internalization of external energy costs. (author). 6 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs

Wavelet analysis of cyclic variability in a spark ignition engine powered by gasoline-hydrogen fuel blends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sen, Asok K. [Richard G. Lugar Centre for Renewable Energy, and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Indiana University, (United States)], email: asen@iupui.edu; Akif Ceviz, M.; Volkan Oner, I. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Ataturk (Turkey)], email: aceviz@atauni.edu.tr

2011-07-01

The cycle-to-cycle variations (CCV) of the indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) in a spark ignition engine fuelled by gasoline and gasoline-hydrogen blends is investigated. CCVs are estimated by using the coefficient of variation (COV) and the overall spectral power given by the global wavelet spectrum (GWS). It was found that the addition of hydrogen reduces the CCV of the IMEP. Analysis of the wavelet can also identify the dominant modes of variability and delineate the engine cycles over which these modes can persist. Air-fuel ratio was varied from 1.0 to 1.3, and hydrogen was added up to 7.74% by volume. The engine was operated at 2000 rpm. Results demonstrate that subject to air-fuel ratio and % of hydrogen added, IMEP time series can exhibit multiscale dynamics consisting of persistent oscillations and intermittent fluctuations. These results can help develop effective control strategies to reduce cyclic variability in a spark ignition engine fuelled by gasoline-hydrogen mixtures.

Quasi-experimental taxation elasticities of US gasoline demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, R.K.

1994-01-01

Taxation elasticities provide inputs in public policy aimed at raising revenues. Using the quasi-experimental method, this paper calculates gasoline taxation elasticities for the USA over 1952-86. The medium (mean) elasticity over this period is found to be -0.075 (-0.122). However, the elasticity following the oil shock of 1973 is found to be statistically different from the pre-shock elasticity. Reasons for this change in elasticity are discussed. The implication of this analysis is that tax policies based on price elasticities, rather than on tax elasticities, might be using an inappropriate elasticity estimate and consequently misinterpreting the government's ability to raise tax revenues. (author)

Feasibility study on reduction of gasoline emissions from oil depots and gasoline stations in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

A field survey was conducted of oil shipment depots in Java and Bali islands owned by Indonesia's state-run oil company to study measures for reduction in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Studies were made on the grasp of the amount of the hydrocarbon vapor emitted into the air, the amount of the gasoline recovered in case of adopting the vapor emission preventive technology, equipment cost/operational cost, etc. Concretely, the following three were studied: change of the gasoline storage tank to the inner floating roof type, and prevention of evaporation loss at the time of receiving and breathing loss caused by temperature changes; replacement with the vapor recovery type loading arm to recover gasoline vapor generated at the time of shipment/filling, and installation of the vapor recovery unit to recover vapor as gasoline; vapor balance system to recover in underground tank the gasoline vapor generated at the time of filling gasoline at gas station. As a result of the study, the recovered gasoline amount was 66,393 Kl/y and the CO2 reduction amount was 14,474 t/y at oil shipment depots and approximately 650 gasoline stations in Jakarta and Surabaya. (NEDO)

Autoignition characteristics of oxygenated gasolines

KAUST Repository

Lee, Changyoul

2017-08-14

Gasoline anti-knock quality, defined by the research and motor octane numbers (RON and MON), is important for increasing spark ignition (SI) engine efficiency. Gasoline knock resistance can be increased using a number of blending components. For over two decades, ethanol has become a popular anti-knock blending agent with gasoline fuels due to its production from bio-derived resources. This work explores the oxidation behavior of two oxygenated certification gasoline fuels and the variation of fuel reactivity with molecular composition. Ignition delay times of Haltermann (RON = 91) and Coryton (RON = 97.5) gasolines have been measured in a high-pressure shock tube and in a rapid compression machine at three pressures of 10, 20 and 40 bar, at equivalence ratios of φ = 0.45, 0.9 and 1.8, and in the temperature range of 650–1250 K. The results indicate that the effects of fuel octane number and fuel composition on ignition characteristics are strongest in the intermediate temperature (negative temperature coefficient) region. To simulate the reactivity of these gasolines, three kinds of surrogates, consisting of three, four and eight components, are proposed and compared with the gasoline ignition delay times. It is shown that more complex surrogate mixtures are needed to emulate the reactivity of gasoline with higher octane sensitivity (S = RON–MON). Detailed kinetic analyses are performed to illustrate the dependence of gasoline ignition delay times on fuel composition and, in particular, on ethanol content.

Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

2013-01-01

Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...... of biodiesel, stronger evidence of cointegration between biodiesel, diesel and soya oil for both the USA and Europe. Finally, biofuel prices do not seem to influence agricultural commodity prices or fossil fuel prices....

Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalid Nainar, S.M.

1993-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

Leaded gasoline - an environmental problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petrushevska, Ljubica

2001-01-01

In the European countries it is a clear trend towards the increasing consumption of unleaded gasolines. Driving force of this trend is, on the one hand the high toxicity of lead compounds and on the other, the necessity of purification of exhaust gases by catalytic converters, for which the lead represent a catalyst poison. In Macedonia, the limit lead content in the leaded gasolines is relatively high (0,6 g/l), as well as the consumption of the leaded gasolines. Rapid and complete transition to unleaded gasolines can be realized by the concept of step by step reduction of lead in our gasolines. (Original)

Draft regulatory analysis: notice of proposed rulemaking motor gasoline allocation revisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1980-06-01

The Draft Regulatory Analysis is prepared for those proposed regulations which either may have a major impact on the general economy, individual industries, or geographic regions and levels of government, or may be significant in that they affect important DOE policy concerns and are the object of public interest. The problems and proposed solutions for the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking and Public Hearings on the Motor Gasoline Allocation Program are examined. The ERA's mandate for this program is set out in the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act of 1973. Under this Act, the President is empowered to enforce, at his discretion, price and allocation controls on petroleum and petroleum products, including gasoline, through September 30, 1981. The Act sets the following allocation goals: protect public health; maintain public services and agricultural operations; foster competition in the petroleum industry; distribute petroleum among industry sectors and US regions equitably; and minimize economic disruption and unnecessary interference wth market mechanisms.

Near-term oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, M.C.

2001-01-01

This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

Prospects for oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caddy, P.

1992-01-01

It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)

House Price, House Quality and Economic Growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Vries, P.; Boelhouwer, P.J.

2010-01-01

The literature on housing markets suggest that periods of economic growth are characterised by a demand for better housing quality and increasing prices. The basic principles of the theory are that the short-run price fluctuations occur due to market imperfection, while over the long term, causality

Biomass to Gasoline and Diesel Using Integrated Hydropyrolysis and Hydroconversion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marker, Terry [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Roberts, Michael [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Linck, Martin [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Felix, Larry [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Ortiz-Toral, Pedro [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Wangerow, Jim [Gas Technology Inst., Des Plaines, IL (United States); Kraus, Larry [CRI-Criterion, Houston, TX (United States); McLeod, Celeste [CRI-Criterion, Houston, TX (United States); DelPaggio, Alan [CRI-Criterion, Houston, TX (United States); Tan, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gephart, John [Johnson Timber, Hayward, WI (United States); Gromov, Dmitri [Cargill, Wayzata, MN (United States); Purtle, Ian [Cargill, Wayzata, MN (United States); Starr, Jack [Cargill, Wayzata, MN (United States); Hahn, John [Cargill, Wayzata, MN (United States); Dorrington, Paul [Aquaflow Bionomic Corporation, Nelson (New Zealand); Stevens, James [Blue Marble Biomaterials, Missoula, MT (United States); Shonnard, David [Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI (United States); Maleche, Edwin [Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI (United States)

2013-01-02

Cellulosic and woody biomass can be directly converted to hydrocarbon gasoline and diesel blending components through the use of integrated hydropyrolysis plus hydroconversion (IH²). The IH² gasoline and diesel blending components are fully compatible with petroleum based gasoline and diesel, contain less than 1% oxygen and have less than 1 total acid number (TAN). The IH² gasoline is high quality and very close to a drop in fuel. The DOE funding enabled rapid development of the IH² technology from initial proof-of-principle experiments through continuous testing in a 50 kg/day pilot plant. As part of this project, engineering work on IH² has also been completed to design a 1 ton/day demonstration unit and a commercial-scale 2000 ton/day IH² unit. These studies show when using IH² technology, biomass can be converted directly to transportation quality fuel blending components for the same capital cost required for pyrolysis alone, and a fraction of the cost of pyrolysis plus upgrading of pyrolysis oil. Technoeconomic work for IH² and lifecycle analysis (LCA) work has also been completed as part of this DOE study and shows IH² technology can convert biomass to gasoline and diesel blending components for less than $2.00/gallon with greater than 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. As a result of the work completed in this DOE project, a joint development agreement was reached with CRI Catalyst Company to license the IH² technology. Further larger-scale, continuous testing of IH² will be required to fully demonstrate the technology, and funding for this is recommended. The IH² biomass conversion technology would reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, reduce the price of transportation fuels, and significantly lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is a breakthrough for the widespread conversion of biomass to transportation fuels.

Using the gasoline tax to reduce the US Federal Government's budget deficit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uri, N.D.; Boyd, Roy

1993-01-01

The analysis presented in this paper examines the United States (US) impact of raising the excise tax on gasoline on the US economy. The analytical approach used in the analysis consists of a computable general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and the government. The effects of a 50 cents per gallon increase in the excise tax on gasoline on prices and quantities include a lower output by the producing sectors (by about $35.0 billion), a reduction in the consumption of goods and services (by about $28.6 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $51.7 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of about $17.3 billion. When subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities. (Author)

Another hurricane, high prices and more chaos in Iraq

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2005-01-01

Another hurricane, this time called Rita, battered the US Gulf Coast, sending oil prices up worldwide, though not to the heights seen when its predecessor, Katrina, arrived. As before, a large swathe of US refinery capacity was temporarily put out of action: this time mainly in Texas. For around a week in late September, when Rita arrived, nearly 4.1 mn bpd of crude distillation capacity was taken off-line. At the same time, some 0.9 mn bpd was still unusable as a result of the depredations of Katrina in late August, leaving the US briefly minus nearly one third of its refinery capacity. The situation improved as some capacity was brought slowly back on-line, but by the beginning of October around 3.0 mn bpd was still not back in operation. The main price effects of Katrina were on gasoline, prompting demands in the Congress and elsewhere for investigations into overcharging by refiners and retailers (see 'Focus'). A record weekly increase in the first week of September propelled the average price of regular gasoline across the US to $3.07/gall. Rita's principal effect was on heating oil, which went up in the last week of September by nearly 20% to $2.51/gall in the US Gulf. US crude oil prices remained below their immediate post-Katrina record highs (see 'The Month in Brief', September 2005) despite the loss of the entire 1.5 mn bpd production in the Gulf of Mexico following Rita's arrival. (author)

Long-run gasoline demand for passenger cars: the role of income distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storchmann, Karl

2005-01-01

It is commonly agreed that the level of income and prices are crucial determinants of the consumption of motor gasoline. The respective long run price and income elasticities are regularly calculated using cross sectional models. Despite the acknowledgement of the role of income distribution, it plays no role in intercountry cross sectional models. This is due to a lack of appropriate data. This paper shows that the omission of distributional characteristics provides misleading elasticities. Using available distributional measures this paper is referring to an income threshold, which is crucial to the acquisition of an automobile. It is shown that on the one hand, in poor countries an unequal income distribution is needed to enable at least some people to buy automobiles. On the other hand, in wealthy countries an unequal income distribution would exclude some people from acquiring automobiles. Hence, depending on the income level, inequality has a diverging impact on the ability to buy durable goods. The second part of this paper develops a pooled 90-country model to examine this approach empirically. It could be shown that distribution variables are highly significant to explain the demand for automobiles and motor gasoline. Moreover, the consideration of the distribution of income leads to a considerable decrease in income elasticity values. This is mainly due to the positive correlation between income level and income equality within the sample

Price setting in turbulent times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ólafsson, Tjörvi; Pétursdóttir, Ásgerdur; Vignisdóttir, Karen Á.

This price setting survey among Icelandic firms aims to make two contributions to the literature. First, it studies price setting in an advanced economy within a more turbulent macroeconomic environment than has previously been done. The results indicate that price adjustments are to a larger...... extent driven by exchange rate fluctuations than in most other advanced countries. The median Icelandic firm reviews its prices every four months and changes them every six months. The main sources of price rigidity and the most commonly used price setting methods are the same as in most other countries....... A second contribution to the literature is our analysis of the nexus between price setting and exchange rate movements, a topic that has attracted surprisingly limited attention in this survey-based literature. A novel aspect of our approach is to base our analysis on a categorisation of firms...

Average regional end-use energy price projections to the year 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The energy prices shown in this report cover the period from 1991 through 2030. These prices reflect sector/fuel price projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1991 (AEO) base case, developed using the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) forecasting model. Projections through 2010 are AEO base case forecasts. Projections for the period from 2011 through 2030 were developed separately from the AEO for this report, and the basis for these projections is described in Chapter 3. Projections in this report include average energy prices for each of four Census Regions for the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation end-use sectors. Energy sources include electricity, distillate fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, natural gas, and steam coal. (VC)

Motor fuel prices in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erdogdu, Erkan

2014-01-01

The world's most expensive motor fuel (gasoline, diesel and LPG) is sold most likely in the Republic of Turkey. This paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in Turkey. First of all, the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices, namely motor fuel taxes in Turkey. Then, it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in Turkey using an econometric analysis. The findings indicate that motor fuel demand in Turkey is quite inelastic and, therefore, not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre-tax prices or taxes. Therefore, fuel market in Turkey is open to opportunistic behavior by firms (through excessive profits) and the government (through excessive taxes). Besides, the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities, including the pattern of passenger transportation, motorization rate, fuel use, total kilometers traveled and CO 2 emissions from road transportation. The impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in Turkey and Turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study. - Highlights: • The key issues (e.g. taxes) related to motor fuel prices in Turkey are explored. • Their impact on transport activities and income distribution is also investigated. • An econometric analysis is performed to estimate motor fuel demand in Turkey. • Motor fuel demand in Turkey is found to be quite inelastic. • Turkish fuel market is open to opportunistic behavior by firms and the government

40 CFR 1065.710 - Gasoline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Gasoline. 1065.710 Section 1065.710... PROCEDURES Engine Fluids, Test Fuels, Analytical Gases and Other Calibration Standards § 1065.710 Gasoline. (a) Gasoline for testing must have octane values that represent commercially available fuels for the...

High prices on electric power now again?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doorman, Gerard

2003-01-01

Deregulation of the electric power market has yielded low prices for the consumers throughout the 1990s. Consumption has now increased considerably, but little new production has been added. This results in high prices in dry years, but to understand this one must understand price formation in the Nordic spot market. The high prices are a powerful signal to the consumers to reduce consumption, but they are also a signal to the producers to seize any opportunity to increase production. However, the construction of new dams etc. stirs up the environmentalists. Ordinary consumers may protect themselves against high prices by signing fixed-price contracts. For those who can tolerate price fluctuations, spot prices are a better alternative than the standard contract with variable price

Six months after the Gulf war - Fuel prices and taxes around the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

During the first half of 1991, national average gasoline and diesel No. 2 fuel prices declined in many countries in terms of US dollars, due to the stronger US currency and weaker crude oil prices. However, in countries' own currencies, consumer prices were unchanged or higher than they were at the end of 1990. This issue of Energy Detente features findings from their ongoing Fuel Price/Tax Series and closely compares fuel price and tax levels around the world. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of August 23, 1991; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, August 1991 Edition. 6 figs., 11 tabs

Do stock prices drive people crazy?

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chung-Liang; Chen, Chin-Shyan; Liu, Tsai-Ching

2015-03-01

This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan. Contingency gasoline rationing regulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1979-02-01

The Economic Regulatory Administration issues final rules with respect to standby gasoline rationing. The plan is designed for and would be used only in the event of a severe gasoline shortage. The plan provides that eligibility for ration allotments will be primarily on the basis of motor vehicle registrations. DOE will mail government ration checks to the parties named in a national vehicle registration file to be maintained by DOE. Ration recipients may cash these checks for ration coupons at various designated coupon issuance points. Retail outlets and other suppliers will be required to redeem the ration coupons received in exchange for gasoline sold. Supplemental gas will be given to high-priority activities. A ration banking system will be established with two separate and distinct of ration accounts: retail outlets and other suppliers will open redemption accounts for the deposit of redeemed ration rights; and individuals or firms may open ration rights accounts, which will operate in much the same manner as monetary checking accounts. A white market will be permitted for the sale of transfer of ration rights. A percentage of the total ration rights to be issued will be reserved for distribution to the states as a State Ration Reserve, to be used by the states primarily for the relief of hardship. A National Ration Reserave will also be established. All sections of the Standby Gasoline Rationing Regulations are analyzed. (MCW)

Asian gasoline and diesel fuel quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, Nancy D.

2000-01-01

Despite the economic slowdown in the late 1990s, gasoline and diesel demand in the Asia-Pacific region has increased significantly. Regional demand is the highest in the world and most new refinery projects worldwide during the 1990s have been here. Generalisations are difficult because the region contains countries at different stages of economic development and environmental quality standards. Gasoline and diesel demand for 1985-2005 for Australasia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and East Asia is shown in four histograms. The trend towards unleaded gasoline, average gasoline aromatics levels and the quality of gasoline in Australasia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia are examined. A further three histograms show the growth in Asia-Pacific unleaded gasoline market share 1991-2000, the rise in octane levels as lead levels fall (1991-2005) and the calculated aromatics content of gasoline in 11 Asia-Pacific countries

Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

2001-01-01

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

27 CFR 21.109 - Gasoline.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gasoline. 21.109 Section 21.109 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF... Gasoline. (a) Distillation range. When 100 ml of gasoline are distilled, none shall distill below 90 °F...

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Science.gov (United States)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

MONETARY POLICIES AND INDUSTRIAL FLUCTUATIONS IN EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela IFRIM

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Industrial fluctuations are closely related to the evolution of relative prices of produced goods and resources involved in production activity. Industrial fluctuations, as an expression of forces manifested in the real economy, are caused by changes in individuals’ consumption and investment decisions, produced within expansionary monetary policies. The ease of obtaining a bank loan in the context of decreasing interest rates and of larger amounts of money caused an increase in individuals’ demand for goods resulted from longer, capital intensive production processes. The rise in prices of intermediate and capital goods in a faster pace compared to the increase in prices of consumer goods is doubled by the increase of the share of higher order industries in the structure of production. The objective of this paper is to analyze changes in industrial structure of Eastern Europe countries within the policies of quick access to monetary resources. The analyzed states (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania are part of the European Union and have autonomous monetary policies, meaning that they have not yet adopted the common currency. In all economies analyzed, we find approximately the same patterns of monetary expansion and industrial fluctuations.

The Impact of Oil Prices on Irish Inflation

OpenAIRE

O'Brien, Derry; Weymes, Laura

2010-01-01

Oil prices have been characterised by large fluctuations in recent years. Strong volatility in oil prices has important implications for the Irish economy as Ireland has a relatively poor fuel endowment and relies heavily on imported oil. Energy price increases have been one of the principal drivers behind HICP inflation rates in Ireland in recent years. This article highlights the distinctive features of the Irish energy market which render the impact of oil price changes on Irish inflation ...

Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

KAUST Repository

Markowich, Peter A.

2016-10-04

In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

Prices, taxes around the world - And why. Annual survey results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

On a world average basis, gasoline and diesel No. 2 prices to consumers declined modestly between January 1991 and January 1992, Energy Detente's survey finds. The drops were in response to falling crude oil prices that followed the conclusion of the Persian Gulf War. Demand increases in 1991, where they occurred, are expected to continue in the short term. This issue details price changes by country and highlights causes in selected countries. Sizable oil-consumption declines in the former USSR and Eastern Bloc countries mask substantial increases among European member nations of OECD. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of May 15, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Western Hemisphere, May 1992 Edition

Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joergensen, Claus; Ropenus, Stephanie

2008-01-01

In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm 3 . The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

2008-10-15

In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

Production price of hydrogen from grid connected electrolysis in a power market with high wind penetration.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joergensen, Claus [Materials Research Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ropenus, Stephanie [Systems Analysis Department, Risoe National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, P.O. Box 49, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark)

2008-10-15

In liberalized power markets, there are significant power price fluctuations due to independently varying changes in demand and supply, the latter being substantial in systems with high wind power penetration. In such systems, hydrogen production by grid connected electrolysis can be cost optimized by operating an electrolyzer part time. This paper presents a study on the minimization of the hydrogen production price and its dependence on estimated power price fluctuations. The calculation of power price fluctuations is based on a parameterization of existing data on wind power production, power consumption and power price evolution in the West Danish power market area. The price for hydrogen is derived as a function of the optimal electrolyzer operation hours per year for four different wind penetration scenarios. It is found to amount to 0.41-0.45 EUR/Nm{sup 3}. The study further discusses the hydrogen price sensitivity towards investment costs and the contribution from non-wind power sources. (author)

Gasoline Reid Vapor Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

EPA regulates the vapor pressure of gasoline sold at retail stations during the summer ozone season to reduce evaporative emissions from gasoline that contribute to ground-level ozone and diminish the effects of ozone-related health problems.

Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniele Girardi

2012-03-01

Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

40 CFR 63.11087 - What requirements must I meet for gasoline storage tanks if my facility is a bulk gasoline...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... gasoline storage tanks if my facility is a bulk gasoline terminal, pipeline breakout station, or pipeline... CATEGORIES (CONTINUED) National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Source Category: Gasoline... § 63.11087 What requirements must I meet for gasoline storage tanks if my facility is a bulk gasoline...

Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Mansoor Baig

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

Gasoline engine management systems and components

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

The call for environmentally compatible and economical vehicles necessitates immense efforts to develop innovative engine concepts. Technical concepts such as gasoline direct injection helped to save fuel up to 20 % and reduce CO2-emissions. Descriptions of the cylinder-charge control, fuel injection, ignition and catalytic emission-control systems provides comprehensive overview of today´s gasoline engines. This book also describes emission-control systems and explains the diagnostic systems. The publication provides information on engine-management-systems and emission-control regulations. Contents History of the automobile.- Basics of the gasoline engine.- Fuels.- Cylinder-charge control systems.- Gasoline injection systems over the years.- Fuel supply.- Manifold fuel injection.- Gasoline direct injection.- Operation of gasoline engines on natural gas.- Ignition systems over the years.- Inductive ignition systems.- Ignition coils.- Spark plugs.- Electronic control.- Sensors.- Electronic control unit.- Exh...

THE PRICE ON THE ORGANIC PRODUCT MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ATĂNĂSOAIE GEORGE SEBASTIAN

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices areanalyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products,distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage.The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or highlevel and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very importantbarrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communicationpolicies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development

Quantifying fluctuations in economic systems by adapting methods of statistical physics

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, H. E.; Gopikrishnan, P.; Plerou, V.; Amaral, L. A. N.

2000-12-01

The emerging subfield of econophysics explores the degree to which certain concepts and methods from statistical physics can be appropriately modified and adapted to provide new insights into questions that have been the focus of interest in the economics community. Here we give a brief overview of two examples of research topics that are receiving recent attention. A first topic is the characterization of the dynamics of stock price fluctuations. For example, we investigate the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions NΔ t - and the price change GΔ t for a given stock, over a time interval [t, t+ Δt] . We relate the time-dependent standard deviation of price fluctuations - volatility - to two microscopic quantities: the number of transactions NΔ t in Δ t and the variance WΔ t2 of the price changes for all transactions in Δ t. Our work indicates that while the pronounced tails in the distribution of price fluctuations arise from WΔ t, the long-range correlations found in ∣ GΔ t∣ are largely due to NΔ t. We also investigate the relation between price fluctuations and the number of shares QΔ t traded in Δ t. We find that the distribution of QΔ t is consistent with a stable Lévy distribution, suggesting a Lévy scaling relationship between QΔ t and NΔ t, which would provide one explanation for volume-volatility co-movement. A second topic concerns cross-correlations between the price fluctuations of different stocks. We adapt a conceptual framework, random matrix theory (RMT), first used in physics to interpret statistical properties of nuclear energy spectra. RMT makes predictions for the statistical properties of matrices that are universal, that is, do not depend on the interactions between the elements comprising the system. In physics systems, deviations from the predictions of RMT provide clues regarding the mechanisms controlling the dynamics of a given system, so this framework can be of potential value if

Ordered phase and non-equilibrium fluctuation in stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Maskawa, Jun-ichi

2002-08-01

We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin interactions as in spin glass models of disordered magnetic systems. Through the analysis of Dow-Jones industrial portfolio consisting of 30 stock issues by this model, we find a non-equilibrium fluctuation mode on the point slightly below the boundary between ordered and disordered phases. The remaining 29 modes are still in disordered phase and well described by Gibbs distribution. The variance of the fluctuation is outlined by the theoretical curve and peculiarly large in the non-equilibrium mode compared with those in the other modes remaining in ordinary phase.

Emissions characteristics of higher alcohol/gasoline blends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gautam, M.; Martin, D.W.; Carder, D.

2000-01-01

An experimental investigation was conducted to determine the emissions characteristics of higher alcohols and gasoline (UTG96) blends. While lower alcohols (methanol and ethanol) have been used in blends with gasoline, very little work has been done or reported on higher alcohols (propanol, butanol and pentanol). Comparisons of emissions and fuel characteristics between higher alcohol/gasoline blends and neat gasoline were made to determine the advantages and disadvantages of blending higher alcohols with gasoline. All tests were conducted on a single-cylinder Waukesha Cooperative Fuel Research engine operating at steady state conditions and stoichiometric air-fuel (A/F) ratio. Emissions test were conducted at the optimum spark timing-knock limiting compression ratio combination for the particular blend being tested. The cycle emission [mass per unit time (g/h)] of CO, CO 2 and organic matter hydrocarbon equivalent (OMHCE) from the higher alcohol/gasoline blends were very similar to those from neat gasoline. Cycle emissions of NO x from the blends were higher than those from neat gasoline. However, for all the emissions species considered, the brake specific emissions (g/kW h) were significantly lower for the higher alcohol/gasoline blends than for neat gasoline. This was because the blends had greater resistance to knock and allowed higher compression ratios, which increased engine power output. The contribution of alcohols and aldehydes to the overall OMHCE emissions was found to be minimal. Cycle fuel consumption (g/h) of higher alcohol/gasoline blends was slightly higher than with neat gasoline due to the lower stoichiometric A/F ratios required by the blends. However, the brake specific fuel consumption (g/kW h) for the blends was significantly lower than that for neat gasoline. (Author)

PRICE ON THE ORGANIC FOOD MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE ATANASOAIE

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices are analyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products, distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage. This paper is based on the investigation of secondary sources, of specialized literature related to PAE consumers. The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or high level and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very important barrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communication policies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development.

Recent progress in gasoline surrogate fuels

KAUST Repository

Sarathy, Mani; Farooq, Aamir; Kalghatgi, Gautam T.

2017-01-01

Petroleum-derived gasoline is currently the most widely used fuel for transportation propulsion. The design and operation of gasoline fuels is governed by specific physical and chemical kinetic fuel properties. These must be thoroughly understood in order to improve sustainable gasoline fuel technologies in the face of economical, technological, and societal challenges. For this reason, surrogate mixtures are formulated to emulate the thermophysical, thermochemical, and chemical kinetic properties of the real fuel, so that fundamental experiments and predictive simulations can be conducted. Early studies on gasoline combustion typically adopted single component or binary mixtures (n-heptane/isooctane) as surrogates. However, the last decade has seen rapid progress in the formulation and utilization of ternary mixtures (n-heptane/isooctane/toluene), as well as multicomponent mixtures that span the entire carbon number range of gasoline fuels (C4–C10). The increased use of oxygenated fuels (ethanol, butanol, MTBE, etc.) as blending components/additives has also motivated studies on their addition to gasoline fuels. This comprehensive review presents the available experimental and chemical kinetic studies which have been performed to better understand the combustion properties of gasoline fuels and their surrogates. Focus is on the development and use of surrogate fuels that emulate real fuel properties governing the design and operation of engines. A detailed analysis is presented for the various classes of compounds used in formulating gasoline surrogate fuels, including n-paraffins, isoparaffins, olefins, naphthenes, and aromatics. Chemical kinetic models for individual molecules and mixtures of molecules to emulate gasoline surrogate fuels are presented. Despite the recent progress in gasoline surrogate fuel combustion research, there are still major gaps remaining; these are critically discussed, as well as their implications on fuel formulation and engine

Recent progress in gasoline surrogate fuels

KAUST Repository

Sarathy, Mani

2017-12-06

Petroleum-derived gasoline is currently the most widely used fuel for transportation propulsion. The design and operation of gasoline fuels is governed by specific physical and chemical kinetic fuel properties. These must be thoroughly understood in order to improve sustainable gasoline fuel technologies in the face of economical, technological, and societal challenges. For this reason, surrogate mixtures are formulated to emulate the thermophysical, thermochemical, and chemical kinetic properties of the real fuel, so that fundamental experiments and predictive simulations can be conducted. Early studies on gasoline combustion typically adopted single component or binary mixtures (n-heptane/isooctane) as surrogates. However, the last decade has seen rapid progress in the formulation and utilization of ternary mixtures (n-heptane/isooctane/toluene), as well as multicomponent mixtures that span the entire carbon number range of gasoline fuels (C4–C10). The increased use of oxygenated fuels (ethanol, butanol, MTBE, etc.) as blending components/additives has also motivated studies on their addition to gasoline fuels. This comprehensive review presents the available experimental and chemical kinetic studies which have been performed to better understand the combustion properties of gasoline fuels and their surrogates. Focus is on the development and use of surrogate fuels that emulate real fuel properties governing the design and operation of engines. A detailed analysis is presented for the various classes of compounds used in formulating gasoline surrogate fuels, including n-paraffins, isoparaffins, olefins, naphthenes, and aromatics. Chemical kinetic models for individual molecules and mixtures of molecules to emulate gasoline surrogate fuels are presented. Despite the recent progress in gasoline surrogate fuel combustion research, there are still major gaps remaining; these are critically discussed, as well as their implications on fuel formulation and engine

What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallo, Andres; Mason, Paul; Shapiro, Steve; Fabritius, Michael

2010-01-01

The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus the upward trend in oil prices. This paper uses unit root tests with two endogenous breaks to analyze the characteristics of oil prices, production, and consumption for several countries. By taking into account structural breaks, we find that many countries' oil consumption and oil prices are stationary, while other countries' are not. We also perform causality tests to determine the direction of any possible relationship between oil price and oil consumption and production. Our statistical analysis reveals that production variables cause oil prices, while oil prices tend to cause consumption. As a result, we claim that the blame for the recent fluctuations in oil prices is more appropriately associated with supply factors, not consumption influences. (author)

Gasoline surrogate modeling of gasoline ignition in a rapid compression machine and comparison to experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mehl, M; Kukkadapu, G; Kumar, K; Sarathy, S M; Pitz, W J; Sung, S J

2011-09-15

The use of gasoline in homogeneous charge compression ignition engines (HCCI) and in duel fuel diesel - gasoline engines, has increased the need to understand its compression ignition processes under engine-like conditions. These processes need to be studied under well-controlled conditions in order to quantify low temperature heat release and to provide fundamental validation data for chemical kinetic models. With this in mind, an experimental campaign has been undertaken in a rapid compression machine (RCM) to measure the ignition of gasoline mixtures over a wide range of compression temperatures and for different compression pressures. By measuring the pressure history during ignition, information on the first stage ignition (when observed) and second stage ignition are captured along with information on the phasing of the heat release. Heat release processes during ignition are important because gasoline is known to exhibit low temperature heat release, intermediate temperature heat release and high temperature heat release. In an HCCI engine, the occurrence of low-temperature and intermediate-temperature heat release can be exploited to obtain higher load operation and has become a topic of much interest for engine researchers. Consequently, it is important to understand these processes under well-controlled conditions. A four-component gasoline surrogate model (including n-heptane, iso-octane, toluene, and 2-pentene) has been developed to simulate real gasolines. An appropriate surrogate mixture of the four components has been developed to simulate the specific gasoline used in the RCM experiments. This chemical kinetic surrogate model was then used to simulate the RCM experimental results for real gasoline. The experimental and modeling results covered ultra-lean to stoichiometric mixtures, compressed temperatures of 640-950 K, and compression pressures of 20 and 40 bar. The agreement between the experiments and model is encouraging in terms of first

Self-Organized Percolation and Critical Sales Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Weisbuch, Gérard; Solomon, Sorin

There is a discrepancy between the standard view of equilibrium through price adjustment in economics and the observation of large fluctuations in stock markets. We study here a simple model where agents decisions not only depend upon their individual preferences but also upon information obtained from their neighbors in a social network. The model shows that information diffusion coupled to the adjustment process drives the system to criticality with large fluctuations rather than converging smoothly to equilibrium.

40 CFR 80.141 - Interim detergent gasoline program.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Interim detergent gasoline program. 80... (CONTINUED) REGULATION OF FUELS AND FUEL ADDITIVES Detergent Gasoline § 80.141 Interim detergent gasoline... apply to: (i) All gasoline sold or transferred to a party who sells or transfers gasoline to the...

27 CFR 21.110 - Gasoline, unleaded.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Gasoline, unleaded. 21.110....110 Gasoline, unleaded. Conforms to specifications as established by the American Society for Testing...-79. Any of the “seasonal and geographical” volatility classes for unleaded gasoline are considered...

Size distribution, chemical composition and oxidation reactivity of particulate matter from gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine fueled with ethanol-gasoline fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Yueqi; Zhu, Lei; Fang, Junhua; Zhuang, Zhuyue; Guan, Chun; Xia, Chen; Xie, Xiaomin; Huang, Zhen

2015-01-01

Ethanol-gasoline blended fuels have been widely applied in markets recently, as ethanol reduces life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and improves anti-knock performance. However, its effects on particulate matter (PM) emissions from gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine still need further investigation. In this study, the effects of ethanol-gasoline blended fuels on particle size distributions, number concentrations, chemical composition and soot oxidation activity of GDI engine were investigated. It was found that ethanol-gasoline blended fuels increased the particle number concentration in low-load operating conditions. In higher load conditions, the ethanol-gasoline was effective for reducing the particle number concentration, indicating that the chemical benefits of ethanol become dominant, which could reduce soot precursors such as large n-alkanes and aromatics in gasoline. The volatile organic mass fraction in ethanol-gasoline particulates matter was higher than that in gasoline particulate matter because ethanol reduced the amount of soot precursors during combustion and thereby reduced the elemental carbon proportions in PM. Ethanol addition also increased the proportion of small particles, which confirmed the effects of ethanol on organic composition. Ethanol-gasoline reduced the concentrations of most PAH species, except those with small aromatic rings, e.g., naphthalene. Soot from ethanol-gasoline has lower activation energy of oxidation than that from gasoline. The results in this study indicate that ethanol-gasoline has positive effects on PM emissions control, as the soot oxidation activity is improved and the particle number concentrations are reduced at moderate and high engine loads. - Highlights: • Ethanol-gasoline reduces elemental carbon in PM. • Ethanol-gasoline increases volatile organic fraction in PM. • Soot generated from ethanol-gasoline has higher oxidation activity.

The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Lin; Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Shanying

2016-01-01

Crude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro-economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation.

Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-06-01

This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.

Gasoline from Kumkol deposit petroleum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nadirov, A.N.; Zhizhin, N.I.; Musaeva, Z.G.

1997-01-01

Samples of gasoline from petroleum of Kumkol deposit are investigated by chromatographic analysis. It is found, that gasoline is characterizing by increased content of iso-paraffin hydrocarbons. (author)

Panel data models with spatial correlation: Estimation theory and an empirical investigation of the United States wholesale gasoline industry

Science.gov (United States)

Kapoor, Mudit

The first part of my dissertation considers the estimation of a panel data model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. The dissertation combines widely used model for spatial correlation (Cliff and Ord (1973, 1981)) with the classical error component panel data model. I introduce generalizations of the generalized moments (GM) procedure suggested in Kelejian and Prucha (1999) for estimating the spatial autoregressive parameter in case of a single cross section. I then use those estimators to define feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedures for the regression parameters. I give formal large sample results concerning the consistency of the proposed GM procedures, as well as the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed feasible GLS procedures. The new estimators remain computationally feasible even in large samples. The second part of my dissertation employs a Cliff-Ord-type model to empirically estimate the nature and extent of price competition in the US wholesale gasoline industry. I use data on average weekly wholesale gasoline price for 289 terminals (distribution facilities) in the US. Data on demand factors, cost factors and market structure that affect price are also used. I consider two time periods, a high demand period (August 1999) and a low demand period (January 2000). I find a high level of competition in prices between neighboring terminals. In particular, price in one terminal is significantly and positively correlated to the price of its neighboring terminal. Moreover, I find this to be much higher during the low demand period, as compared to the high demand period. In contrast to previous work, I include for each terminal the characteristics of the marginal customer by controlling for demand factors in the neighboring location. I find these demand factors to be important during period of high demand and insignificant during the low demand period. Furthermore, I have also considered spatial

A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, José M.; López-Otero, Xiral

2017-01-01

Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or other events that influence the price of energy goods. Since the 1970s, a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but sizeable, empirical evidence to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of (in some cases policy-related) energy price changes. It uses meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting short and long term elasticity results for energy, in general, as well as for specific products, i.e., electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil. - Highlights: • An updated and wider meta-analysis on price elasticities of energy demand. • Energy goods are shown to be price inelastic both in the short and long-term. • Results are relevant for a proper design and implementation of energy policies. • Our results refer to energy, as a whole, and specific energy goods.

Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

2008-01-01

With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

The effects of hydrous ethanol gasoline on combustion and emission characteristics of a port injection gasoline engine

OpenAIRE

Xiaochen Wang; Zhenbin Chen; Jimin Ni; Saiwu Liu; Haijie Zhou

2015-01-01

Comparative experiments were conducted on a port injection gasoline engine fueled with hydrous ethanol gasoline (E10W), ethanol gasoline (E10) and pure gasoline (E0). The effects of the engine loads and the additions of ethanol and water on combustion and emission characteristics were analyzed deeply. According to the experimental results, compared with E0, E10W showed higher peak in-cylinder pressure at high load. Increases in peak heat release rates were observed for E10W fuel at all the op...

Reduced ultrafine particle levels in São Paulo's atmosphere during shifts from gasoline to ethanol use.

Science.gov (United States)

Salvo, Alberto; Brito, Joel; Artaxo, Paulo; Geiger, Franz M

2017-07-18

Despite ethanol's penetration into urban transportation, observational evidence quantifying the consequence for the atmospheric particulate burden during actual, not hypothetical, fuel-fleet shifts, has been lacking. Here we analyze aerosol, meteorological, traffic, and consumer behavior data and find, empirically, that ambient number concentrations of 7-100-nm diameter particles rise by one-third during the morning commute when higher ethanol prices induce 2 million drivers in the real-world megacity of São Paulo to substitute to gasoline use (95% confidence intervals: +4,154 to +13,272 cm -3 ). Similarly, concentrations fall when consumers return to ethanol. Changes in larger particle concentrations, including US-regulated PM2.5, are statistically indistinguishable from zero. The prospect of increased biofuel use and mounting evidence on ultrafines' health effects make our result acutely policy relevant, to be weighed against possible ozone increases. The finding motivates further studies in real-world environments. We innovate in using econometrics to quantify a key source of urban ultrafine particles.The biofuel ethanol has been introduced into urban transportation in many countries. Here, by measuring aerosols in São Paulo, the authors find that high ethanol prices coincided with an increase in harmful nanoparticles by a third, as drivers switched from ethanol to cheaper gasoline, showing a benefit of ethanol.

Who Pays the Gasoline Tax?

OpenAIRE

Chernick, Howard; Reschovsky, Andrew

1997-01-01

Analyzes panel data over 11 years (both backward from 1982 and forward from 1982) to determine the average gasoline tax burden. Considers links between economic mobility, gasoline consumption, and excise tax increases.

Symmetric or asymmetric oil prices? A meta-analysis approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perdiguero-García, Jordi

2013-01-01

The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most widely studied in energy economics. However, the great variation in the outcomes reported makes the drawing of any definitive conclusions difficult. Given this situation, a meta-analysis serves as an excellent tool to discover which characteristics of the various markets analyzed, and which specific features of these studies, might account for these differences. In adopting such an approach, this paper shows how the particular segment of the industry analyzed, the characteristics of the data, the years under review, the type of publication and the introduction of control variables might explain this heterogeneity in results. The paper concludes on these grounds that increased competition may significantly reduce the possibility of occurrence of asymmetric behavior. These results should be taken into consideration therefore in future studies of asymmetries in the oil industry. - Highlights: ► I study asymmetries in the price gasoline industry through a meta-analysis regression. ► The asymmetries are produced mainly in the retail market. ► The asymmetries are less frequent when we analyze recent cases. ► There may be some degree of publication bias. ► The level of competition may explain the patterns of asymmetry

Pricing end-of-life components

Science.gov (United States)

Vadde, Srikanth; Kamarthi, Sagar V.; Gupta, Surendra M.

2005-11-01

The main objective of a product recovery facility (PRF) is to disassemble end-of-life (EOL) products and sell the reclaimed components for reuse and recovered materials in second-hand markets. Variability in the inflow of EOL products and fluctuation in demand for reusable components contribute to the volatility in inventory levels. To stay profitable the PRFs ought to manage their inventory by regulating the price appropriately to minimize holding costs. This work presents two deterministic pricing models for a PRF bounded by environmental regulations. In the first model, the demand is price dependent and in the second, the demand is both price and time dependent. The models are valid for single component with no inventory replenishment sale during the selling horizon . Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the models.

Combustion Kinetic Studies of Gasolines and Surrogates

KAUST Repository

Javed, Tamour

2016-11-01

Future thrusts for gasoline engine development can be broadly summarized into two categories: (i) efficiency improvements in conventional spark ignition engines, and (ii) development of advance compression ignition (ACI) concepts. Efficiency improvements in conventional spark ignition engines requires downsizing (and turbocharging) which may be achieved by using high octane gasolines, whereas, low octane gasolines fuels are anticipated for ACI concepts. The current work provides the essential combustion kinetic data, targeting both thrusts, that is needed to develop high fidelity gasoline surrogate mechanisms and surrogate complexity guidelines. Ignition delay times of a wide range of certified gasolines and surrogates are reported here. These measurements were performed in shock tubes and rapid compression machines over a wide range of experimental conditions (650 – 1250 K, 10 – 40 bar) relevant to internal combustion engines. Using the measured the data and chemical kinetic analyses, the surrogate complexity requirements for these gasolines in homogeneous environments are specified. For the discussions presented here, gasolines are classified into three categories: (i)\\tLow octane gasolines including Saudi Aramco’s light naphtha fuel (anti-knock index, AKI = (RON + MON)/2 = 64; Sensitivity (S) = RON – MON = 1), certified FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasoline I and J (AKI ~ 70, S = 0.7 and 3 respectively), and their Primary Reference Fuels (PRF, mixtures of n-heptane and iso-octane) and multi-component surrogates. (ii)\\t Mid octane gasolines including FACE A and C (AKI ~ 84, S ~ 0 and 1 respectively) and their PRF surrogates. Laser absorption measurements of intermediate and product species formed during gasoline/surrogate oxidation are also reported. (iii)\\t A wide range of n-heptane/iso-octane/toluene (TPRF) blends to adequately represent the octane and sensitivity requirements of high octane gasolines including FACE gasoline F and G

Gasoline ingestion: a rare cause of pancytopenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Ifad; Narasimhan, Kanakasabai; Aziz, Shahid; Owens, William

2009-11-01

The majority of reported cases of gasoline intoxication involves inhalation or percutaneous absorption. Data are scarce on complications and outcomes after gasoline poisoning by oral ingestion. The major cause of mortality and morbidity associated with the ingestion of gasoline is related to pulmonary aspiration. Despite the high frequency of the ingestions, there is little documentation of nonpulmonary toxic effects of gasoline. After ingestion, the principal toxicity is aspiration pneumonia, but any documented extra pulmonary manifestations of this condition may be important in the overall management of these patients. We are reporting a rare case of pancytopenia along with aspiration pneumonia and multisystem organ failure in a 58-year-old male after prolonged intentional ingestion of gasoline. To our knowledge, this is the only reported case of gasoline toxicity causing pancytopenia.

Unit root behavior in energy futures prices

OpenAIRE

Serletis, Apostolos

1992-01-01

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, tests for unit roots in the univariate time-series representation of the daily crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline series are performed using recent state-of-the-art methodology. The results show that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected if allowance is made for the possibility of a one-time break in the intercept and the slope of the trend function at an unknown po...

40 CFR 63.11088 - What requirements must I meet for gasoline loading racks if my facility is a bulk gasoline...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 14 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What requirements must I meet for gasoline loading racks if my facility is a bulk gasoline terminal, pipeline breakout station, or pipeline... § 63.11088 What requirements must I meet for gasoline loading racks if my facility is a bulk gasoline...

Fortum Oil and Gas 2000: Exceptionally high price of crude oil and strong refining margins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ropponen, V.-M.

2001-01-01

Fortum intends to be an active player in the structural reorganization of the oil business by utilizing its niche position in oil refining. Fortum produces sophisticated motor fuel components, which it uses in its reformulated gasolines and sells and exports to other oil companies, even to highly demanding markets in California. The increase in the price of crude oil considerably improved the results of Oil and Gas Upstream. Similarly, an improvement in the refining margin, as well as profitable shipping operations and a strong demand for gasoline components, boosted the results of Oil Refining and Marketing. (orig.)

Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

Science.gov (United States)

Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2003-01-01

The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

Autoignition characteristics of oxygenated gasolines

KAUST Repository

Lee, Changyoul; Ahmed, Ahfaz; Nasir, Ehson Fawad; Badra, Jihad; Kalghatgi, Gautam; Sarathy, Mani; Curran, Henry; Farooq, Aamir

2017-01-01

Gasoline anti-knock quality, defined by the research and motor octane numbers (RON and MON), is important for increasing spark ignition (SI) engine efficiency. Gasoline knock resistance can be increased using a number of blending components

A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabaix, Xavier; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki; Stanley, H Eugene

2003-05-15

Insights into the dynamics of a complex system are often gained by focusing on large fluctuations. For the financial system, huge databases now exist that facilitate the analysis of large fluctuations and the characterization of their statistical behaviour. Power laws appear to describe histograms of relevant financial fluctuations, such as fluctuations in stock price, trading volume and the number of trades. Surprisingly, the exponents that characterize these power laws are similar for different types and sizes of markets, for different market trends and even for different countries--suggesting that a generic theoretical basis may underlie these phenomena. Here we propose a model, based on a plausible set of assumptions, which provides an explanation for these empirical power laws. Our model is based on the hypothesis that large movements in stock market activity arise from the trades of large participants. Starting from an empirical characterization of the size distribution of those large market participants (mutual funds), we show that the power laws observed in financial data arise when the trading behaviour is performed in an optimal way. Our model additionally explains certain striking empirical regularities that describe the relationship between large fluctuations in prices, trading volume and the number of trades.

Ignition studies of two low-octane gasolines

KAUST Repository

Javed, Tamour

2017-07-24

Low-octane gasolines (RON ∼ 50–70 range) are prospective fuels for gasoline compression ignition (GCI) internal combustion engines. GCI technology utilizing low-octane fuels has the potential to significantly improve well-to-wheel efficiency and reduce the transportation sector\\'s environmental footprint by offsetting diesel fuel usage in compression ignition engines. In this study, ignition delay times of two low-octane FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines, FACE I and FACE J, were measured in a shock tube and a rapid compression machine over a broad range of engine-relevant conditions (650–1200 K, 20 and 40 bar and ϕ = 0.5 and 1). The two gasolines are of similar octane ratings with anti-knock index, AKI = (RON + MON)/2, of ∼ 70 and sensitivity, S = RON–MON, of ∼ 3. However, the molecular compositions of the two gasolines are notably different. Experimental ignition delay time results showed that the two gasolines exhibited similar reactivity over a wide range of test conditions. Furthermore, ignition delay times of a primary reference fuel (PRF) surrogate (n-heptane/iso-octane blend), having the same AKI as the FACE gasolines, captured the ignition behavior of these gasolines with some minor discrepancies at low temperatures (T < 700 K). Multi-component surrogates, formulated by matching the octane ratings and compositions of the two gasolines, emulated the autoignition behavior of gasolines from high to low temperatures. Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine simulations were used to show that the PRF and multi-component surrogates exhibited similar combustion phasing over a wide range of engine operating conditions.

Oil price and the dollar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

2007-01-01

Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

Price smarter on the Net.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

2001-02-01

Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success.

OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices. Further test of the target revenue theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramcharran, H.

2001-01-01

Oil production cutbacks in recent years by OPEC members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory (TRT). We estimate a modified version of Griffin (1985) target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000. The sample period, unlike previous investigations, includes phases of both price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s-1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior. The results, like the earlier study, are not supportive of the strict version of the TRT, however, evidence (negative and significant elasticity of supply) of the partial version are substantiated. Further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model, hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies

FEWS NET Price Volatility Data 2002-2012

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — This dataset from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) documents ten years, from 2002 to 2012, of cereal price fluctuations across twenty-five African...

Evaporative Gasoline Emissions and Asthma Symptoms

Science.gov (United States)

Gordian, Mary Ellen; Stewart, Alistair W; Morris, Stephen S

2010-01-01

Attached garages are known to be associated with indoor air volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This study looked at indoor exposure to VOCs presumably from evaporative emissions of gasoline. Alaskan gasoline contains 5% benzene making benzene a marker for gasoline exposure. A survey of randomly chosen houses with attached garages was done in Anchorage Alaska to determine the exposure and assess respiratory health. Householders were asked to complete a health survey for each person and a household survey. They monitored indoor air in their primary living space for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes for one week using passive organic vapor monitoring badges. Benzene levels in homes ranged from undetectable to 58 parts per billion. The median benzene level in 509 homes tested was 2.96 ppb. Elevated benzene levels in the home were strongly associated with small engines and gasoline stored in the garage. High concentrations of benzene in gasoline increase indoor air levels of benzene in residences with attached garages exposing people to benzene at levels above ATSDR’s minimal risk level. Residents reported more severe symptoms of asthma in the homes with high gasoline exposure (16%) where benzene levels exceeded the 9 ppb. PMID:20948946

Gas prices: realities and probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broadfoot, M.

2000-01-01

An assessment of price trends suggests continuing rise in 2001, with some easing of upward price movement in 2002 and 2003. Storage levels as of Nov. 1, 2000 are expected to be at 2.77 Tcf, but if the winter of 2000/2001 proves to be more severe than usual, inventory levels could sink as low as 500 Bcf by April 1, 2001. With increasing demand for natural gas for non-utility electric power generation the major challenge will be to achieve significant supply growth, which means increased developmental drilling and inventory draw-downs, as well as more exploratory drilling in deepwater and frontier regions. Absence of a significant supply response by next summer will affect both growth in demand and in price levels, and the increased demand for electric generation in the summer will create a flatter consumption profile, erasing the traditional summer/winter spread in consumption, further intensifying price volatility. Managing price fluctuations is the second biggest challenge (after potential supply problems) facing the industry

Removal of gasoline vapors from air streams by biofiltration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Apel, W.A.; Kant, W.D.; Colwell, F.S.; Singleton, B.; Lee, B.D.; Andrews, G.F.; Espinosa, A.M.; Johnson, E.G.

1993-03-01

Research was performed to develop a biofilter for the biodegradation of gasoline vapors. The overall goal of this effort was to provide information necessary for the design, construction, and operation of a commercial gasoline vapor biofilter. Experimental results indicated that relatively high amounts of gasoline vapor adsorption occur during initial exposure of the biofilter bed medium to gasoline vapors. Biological removal occurs over a 22 to 40{degrees}C temperature range with removal being completely inhibited at 54{degrees}C. The addition of fertilizer to the relatively fresh bed medium used did not increase the rates of gasoline removal in short term experiments. Microbiological analyses indicated that high levels of gasoline degrading microbes are naturally present in the bed medium and that additional inoculation with hydrocarbon degrading cultures does not appreciably increase gasoline removal rates. At lower gasoline concentrations, the vapor removal rates were considerably lower than those at higher gasoline concentrations. This implies that system designs facilitating gasoline transport to the micro-organisms could substantially increase gasoline removal rates at lower gasoline vapor concentrations. Test results from a field scale prototype biofiltration system showed volumetric productivity (i.e., average rate of gasoline degradation per unit bed volume) values that were consistent with those obtained with laboratory column biofilters at similar inlet gasoline concentrations. In addition, total benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene, and xylene (BTEX) removal over the operating conditions employed was 50 to 55%. Removal of benzene was approximately 10 to 15% and removal of the other members of the BTEX group was much higher, typically >80%.

Removal of gasoline vapors from air streams by biofiltration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Apel, W.A.; Kant, W.D.; Colwell, F.S.; Singleton, B.; Lee, B.D.; Andrews, G.F.; Espinosa, A.M.; Johnson, E.G.

1993-03-01

Research was performed to develop a biofilter for the biodegradation of gasoline vapors. The overall goal of this effort was to provide information necessary for the design, construction, and operation of a commercial gasoline vapor biofilter. Experimental results indicated that relatively high amounts of gasoline vapor adsorption occur during initial exposure of the biofilter bed medium to gasoline vapors. Biological removal occurs over a 22 to 40[degrees]C temperature range with removal being completely inhibited at 54[degrees]C. The addition of fertilizer to the relatively fresh bed medium used did not increase the rates of gasoline removal in short term experiments. Microbiological analyses indicated that high levels of gasoline degrading microbes are naturally present in the bed medium and that additional inoculation with hydrocarbon degrading cultures does not appreciably increase gasoline removal rates. At lower gasoline concentrations, the vapor removal rates were considerably lower than those at higher gasoline concentrations. This implies that system designs facilitating gasoline transport to the micro-organisms could substantially increase gasoline removal rates at lower gasoline vapor concentrations. Test results from a field scale prototype biofiltration system showed volumetric productivity (i.e., average rate of gasoline degradation per unit bed volume) values that were consistent with those obtained with laboratory column biofilters at similar inlet gasoline concentrations. In addition, total benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene, and xylene (BTEX) removal over the operating conditions employed was 50 to 55%. Removal of benzene was approximately 10 to 15% and removal of the other members of the BTEX group was much higher, typically >80%.

Effects of gasoline and ethanol-gasoline exhaust exposure on human bronchial epithelial and natural killer cells in vitro.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Michèle; Usemann, Jakob; Bisig, Christoph; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Mayer, Andreas C R; Beier, Konstantin; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Latzin, Philipp; Müller, Loretta

2017-12-01

Air pollution exposure, including passenger car emissions, may cause substantial respiratory health effects and cancer death. In western countries, the majority of passenger cars are driven by gasoline fuel. Recently, new motor technologies and ethanol fuels have been introduced to the market, but potential health effects have not been thoroughly investigated. We developed and verified a coculture model composed of bronchial epithelial cells (ECs) and natural killer cells (NKs) mimicking the human airways to compare toxic effects between pure gasoline (E0) and ethanol-gasoline-blend (E85, 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) exhaust emitted from a flexfuel gasoline car. We drove a steady state cycle, exposed ECs for 6h and added NKs. We assessed exhaust effects in ECs alone and in cocultures by RT-PCR, flow cytometry, and oxidative stress assay. We found no toxic effects after exposure to E0 or E85 compared to air controls. Comparison between E0 and E85 exposure showed a weak association for less oxidative DNA damage after E85 exposure compared to E0. Our results indicate that short-term exposure to gasoline exhaust may have no major toxic effects in ECs and NKs and that ethanol as part of fuel for gasoline cars may be favorable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices; Os equivocos do combate a inflacao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nastari, Plinio Mario [Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

1993-12-31

The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country 8 figs.

40 CFR 80.540 - How may a refiner be approved to produce gasoline under the GPA gasoline sulfur standards in 2007...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... produce gasoline under the GPA gasoline sulfur standards in 2007 and 2008? 80.540 Section 80.540... Marine Fuel Geographic Phase-in Provisions § 80.540 How may a refiner be approved to produce gasoline under the GPA gasoline sulfur standards in 2007 and 2008? (a) A refiner that has been approved by EPA...

Successful outcome after intravenous gasoline injection.

Science.gov (United States)

Domej, Wolfgang; Mitterhammer, Heike; Stauber, Rudolf; Kaufmann, Peter; Smolle, Karl Heinz

2007-12-01

Gasoline, ingested intentionally or accidentally, is toxic. The majority of reported cases of gasoline intoxication involve oral ingestion or inhalation. Data are scarce on complications and outcomes following hydrocarbon poisoning by intravenous injection. Following a suicide attempt by intravenous self-injection of 10 ml of gasoline, a 26-year-old medical student was admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with hemoptysis, symptoms of acute respiratory failure, chest pain, and severe abdominal cramps. Gas exchange was severely impaired and a chest x-ray indicated chemical pneumonitis. Initial treatment consisted of mechanical ventilation, supportive hyperventilation, administration of nitrogen oxide (NO), and prednisone. Unfortunately, the patient developed multi-organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) complicated by life-threatening severe vasoplegia within 24 hours after gasoline injection. High doses of vasopressors along with massive amounts of parenteral fluids were necessary. Despite fluid replacement, renal function worsened and required hemofiltration on 5 sequential days. After 12 days of intensive care management, the patient recovered completely and was discharged to a psychiatric care facility. Intravenous gasoline injection causes major injury to the lungs, the organ bearing the first capillary bed encountered. Treatment of gasoline poisoning is symptomatic because no specific antidote is available. Early and aggressive supportive care may be conducive to a favorable outcome with minimal residual pulmonary sequelae.

Distributional impacts of car road pricing. Settlement structures determine divergence across countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinowska, Dominika; Steininger, Karl W.

2009-01-01

Social questions of distribution and equity are of major importance for the political acceptance of car road pricing. The argument that kilometre-based private vehicle charging disadvantages the poor is often the core reason for opposing its introduction. An article in this journal [Steininger, K.W., Friedl, B., Gebetsroither, B., 2007. Sustainability impacts of car road pricing: a computable general equilibrium analysis for Austria. Ecological Economics 63, pp. 59-69] proved the opposite for one European country, i.e. that the rich bear most of the burden. In the present paper we use the very same model structure and apply it in a simulation to the data of another country. While macroeconomic and environmental conclusions are similar, we find a different distributional impact of car road pricing in our case. This issue is also of relevance in the analysis of the distributional implications concerning (recently significant) gasoline price increases. (author)

Rising natural gas and electricity prices in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roggen, M.

2004-01-01

In a free market, the price for electricity rises rather than falls. And as for the gas price, the consumer will be facing strong fluctuations. For that matter, it is only slightly connected with the liberalization of the market. An employee of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has delved deeply into the matter, down to the euro [nl

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-05-01

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.