Natural gas, NGL's and crude: supply, demand and price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stauft, T.L.

2003-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the major issues to watch in the crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) markets in North America. The presentation began with background information concerning Purvin and Gertz, an employee-owned consulting firm whose employees are chemical engineers, holders of a Master of Business Administration (MBA), or economists. They specialize in providing strategic, commercial, and technical advice to the international energy industry. A closer look at each individual market was provided, looking at demand, supply, price drivers and others. The author concluded that world oil prices continue to be influenced by a war premium. Oil prices support natural gas, as well as the possibility of a supply issue. The gas processing margins have remained strong. The unknown quantities are the weather and economic recovery. figs

Supply and demand perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trienekens, Pieter

1999-01-01

The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

World gas supply-demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rushby, I.L.

1996-01-01

The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

Supplies should match growing demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmusen, H.J.

1997-01-01

The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

The Study on Global Oil and Gas Supply and Demand undertaken by the National Petroleum Council

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slutz, James

2007-07-01

The National Petroleum Council (NPC) Study on Global Oil and Gas is one of the most comprehensive studies on global oil and gas supply and demand projections ever undertaken to date. This study comprises approximately 250 experts from industry, government, research institutions, academia, energy ministries from around the world, national oil companies, and non-government organizations. The NPC study team has collected and analyzed global data on supply and demand trends through the year 2030. While other studies have examined the economic, environmental, security and geo-policy implications of the oil and gas supply and demand picture, this study examines all three political priorities simultaneously. The multi-dimensional foundations of the policy recommendations, and the diverse expertise of study group members, results in findings which are truly unique, and separate this study from numerous previous studies on global oil and gas supply and demand. Although key findings and policy recommendations will not be released prior to the study's release in June of 2007, the following paper provides the scope of work and the detailed project plan that will result in an energy outlook that is differentiated from all recent studies.

An emerging economic view of world natural gas demand and supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorsett, W.H.; Ackerman, G.B.

1992-01-01

Natural gas is swiftly moving from a locally traded commodity in regional markets to a globally traded commodity. This paper describes a numerical model of international gas trade which evaluates the effects of inter- and intra-regional gas trade on demand, supply and price. Preliminary evidence indicates natural gas prices are 15 to 30% lower in real terms when inter-regional trade occurs and local consumption of natural gas increases relative to fuel oil in the local market. Natural gas developers or marketers that explicitly consider the inter-regional impacts of gas trade will have a greater likelihood of understanding the risks in marginal projects and are more likely to embrace economic projects and eschew noneconomic projects

Enron sees major increases in U.S. gas supply, demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.; Stram, B.

1991-01-01

Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case

Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1991-04-01

The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

Will the supply meet the demand? The future of the natural gas liquids market in the WCSB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stauft, T.

2004-01-01

Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) price influences were reviewed in this presentation, as well as issues concerning North American propane demand and waterborne imports. A review of U.S. propane stocks was provided as well as regional temperature outlooks for 2004-2005. A cracking feedstock parity forecast was presented, as well as United States gross gas plant margins and propane prices to July 2005. Canadian propane inventories and prices were reviewed. A propane supply and demand forecast to 2020 was presented. Alberta's natural gas supply and intra-Alberta oil sand gas demand growth were discussed. Various market uncertainties include higher levels of activity; the potential of petroleum prices falling due to a reduction of geopolitical risk; the possibility of a U.S. recession; and the growth of Alberta's oil sands industry, with resulting demand for natural gas. It was concluded that the NGL market in North America will continue to be balanced, with waterborne imports becoming more critical. It was suggested that inventories are adequate for the expected winter season. It was also suggested that Canadian NGL supplies are expected to decline, and that prices are expected to soften in the spring of 2005, with falling natural gas and crude oil prices. refs., tabs., figs

Natural gas supply - a producer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papa, M.G.

1994-01-01

The supply of natural gas from the producers standpoint is discussed. The following factors in the marketing demand for natural gas are considered to be important: gas demand is growing, U.S. gas resource base is large, chronic gas bubble has shrunk, and North American supply is more resilient than expected

Supply and demand forecasts for natural gas in the WCSB

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowfoot, C.; Laustsen, G.

2001-01-01

A historical review of supply of natural gas in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) was presented along with export capacity versus demand and the affect of reconnection on Alberta prices. This power point presentation included several graphs and charts which showed that the decline rate per well groupings suggest the pre-1996 wells are declining at about 10 per cent and flattening. The productivity profiles of recent well additions exhibit a very steep initial decline, indicating that a basin decline of 25 per cent is apparent with an expected flattening to a decline of around 20 per cent. This presentation also included a review of WCSB natural gas drilling activity and discussed natural gas well completions by type in Western Canada and British Columbia. Pipeline capacity and throughput for 1999 was also discussed with an illustration of the North American natural gas transportation grid and a graphical illustration of gas exports and Canadian sales. tabs., figs

Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilgin, Mert

2009-01-01

This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system.

Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1991-12-01

The paper summarizes the gas supply outlook in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents the GRI planning outlook for the economic and the energy supply and demand situation to the year 2010. It was prepared independently by GRI using publicly available data and a framework of commercially available models that GRI has developed over several years. It is not derived from the views of GRI member companies. The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices. The gas prices in the 1992 projection support growth in all major U.S. gas supply sources: lower-48, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, and LNG. By about 2005, U.S. gas supply is at its highest level ever. By 2010, U.S. gas supply has grown to almost 25 quads. U.S. gas production increases 2.6 quads between 1990 and 2010; imports increase 2.2 quads. Although imports do not increase as much as U.S. gas production, they account for an increased share of U.S. gas supply. The import share grows from 7 percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Supplemental gas sources provide about 1 percent of U.S. gas supply

Safety implications of bridging the energy supply/demand gap in Nigeria through associated natural gas utilization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akeredolu, Funso A.; Sonibare, Jacob A.

2007-01-01

There exists a wide energy supply/demand gap in Nigeria. The local generation of electricity meets only 31% of the demand of 10000 MW. By contrast, only 39.6% of the total installed capacity for electricity generation is achieved, owing to aging infrastructure, etc. The energy demand/supply pattern and infrastructure critically reviewed thus suggested the need to increase the electricity generation capacity. Furthermore, Nigeria flares 77% of her associated natural gas. Apart from the environmental penalties that flaring represents, in monetary terms, over the 110 years' life of Nigeria's gas reserves, a conservative estimate of the cost of the gas so-flared was $330 billion (based on $20/barrel average price of crude). It was safely inferred that the way forward in meeting the country's energy demand should include a strong element of gas utilization. In previous publications by this group, it was established that while domestic cooking could reduce the flared gas by about 5.4%, a cohesive policy on associated gas use for electricity generation could eliminate gas flaring. For domestic utilization of the associated gas, burner design and safety concerns were identified as the key challenges to overcome. The paper reports the effectiveness of odorizers in leakage detection/ prevention by the local consumers. It also discusses the issue of prevention of gas explosions. The previous cases of gas accidents were reviewed. The safety approaches proffered in the paper identified the relevant areas of research for safe delivery and consumption of natural gas in Nigeria. (Author)

Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bilgin, Mert, E-mail: mert.bilgin@bahcesehir.edu.t [Bahcesehir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Political Science and International Relations Department, Ciragan Caddesi Besiktas, 34353 Istanbul (Turkey)

2009-11-15

This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system.

Geopolitics of European natural gas demand. Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bilgin, Mert [Bahcesehir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Political Science and International Relations Department, Ciragan Caddesi Besiktas, 34353 Istanbul (Turkey)

2009-11-15

This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system. (author)

North American pipelines supply/demand update: challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gopal, J.

2002-01-01

The author began the presentation by providing a little definition of forecasting supply, demand and price as applied to the natural gas industry, indicating that it is both science and art. An integrated grid in North America, the natural gas sector modeling relates to supply basins, demand centers and pipes includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Some of the considerations are: huge demand from proposed power generation, conservation, and drilling impacts, as well as pipeline capacity. A chart displaying the North American model was explained. The author discussed the technically recoverable natural gas resources as well as the estimates in both Canada and the United States. The next section deals with exploration and development of frontier resources and power plant licensing, with emphasis on power plants in California. The generation assumptions for the Western Systems Coordinating Council from the Energy Commission are reviewed, placing the numbers in their proper perspective. California natural gas supply by source is examined, followed by regional natural gas spot price. The wellhead natural gas prices for North America and for the Lower 48 states are presented. The author indicates that additional pipeline capacity is required to meet the growing demand. Several factors have to be considered: the number of power plants, when and where; pipeline capacity (how much); regulations; slack capacity; cost of slack capacity, and supply. The concluding remarks touched upon the availability of gas resources, the environmental issues that affect demand, hub services that enhance service flexibility and reliability, and pipeline capacity and storage. 2 tabs., 15 figs

Problems of peak demands in the gas industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haeberlin, A

1979-01-01

After a brief explanation of the demands made on gas supply enterprises, a discussion of the possibilities of optimization for meeting the demand follows. There are in principle two possibilities for this: the interruption of deliveries which should be made legal in a contract and the use of peak supply plants, especially in the form of gas storages. The procedure is chosen according to the special situation of each gas supply enterprise.

Alberta's reserves 2004 and supply/demand outlook 2005-2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burrowes, A.; Marsh, R.; Ramdin, N.; Evans, C.; Kirsch, M.A.; Philp, L.; Fujda, M.; Stenson, J.; Sadler, K.; Sankey, G.; Hill, C.; Rahnama, F.; Habib, G.; MacGillivray, J.

2005-01-01

This document presents information on the state of reserves, supply, and demand for Alberta's energy resources including bitumen, crude oil, coalbed methane (CBM), conventional natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal. Estimates of initial reserves, remaining established reserves, and ultimate potential were also included, along with a 10-year supply and demand forecast for Alberta's energy resources. The document presents major forecast assumptions that influence Alberta's energy supply and demand. Some of the main variables affecting energy supply and demand include the global oil market, energy prices, Canadian economic performance and the economic outlook for Alberta. The development of Alberta's energy resources depends on reserve supply, costs of development, energy demands, conservation, and social, economic and environmental considerations. In 2004, raw bitumen production continued to grow and accounted for 69 per cent of Alberta's total crude oil and bitumen production. The value-added process of upgrading raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil was also expanded in 2004. Natural gas production from all sources in Alberta increased by 1 per cent compared with 2003. CBM development also increased greatly in 2004. Although it accounted for 80 per cent of the cumulative CBM production to date, it only contributed 0.5 per cent of the provincial total natural gas production. It is expected that CBM development will continue to increase in the coming years. For that reason, a separate estimate of CBM reserves was included. tabs., figs

Oil and gas. Gas supply under pressure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forbes, A.

2008-01-01

The latest review of natural gas markets from the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a picture of growing demand in the face of rising prices, a strengthening link between gas and electricity markets, and a globalising influence from increasingly flexible LNG supplies. But there are growing signs that security of supply is under threat from underinvestment, delays and cost escalation

Vancouver Island gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Des Brisay, C.

2005-01-01

Terasen Gas is pursuing alternatives for the supply of additional natural gas capacity to Vancouver Island. Its subsidiary, Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) Inc. (TGVI), is responding to the need for delivery of increased gas supply and, is supporting plans for new gas-fired power generation on Vancouver Island. TGVI's proposal for new natural gas capacity involves a combination of compression and pipeline loops as well as the addition of a storage facility for liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Mt. Hayes to help manage price volatility. This presentation outlined the objectives and components of the resource planning process, including demand forecast scenarios and the preferred infrastructure options. tabs., figs

Analysis of GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nesbitt, D.M.; Singh, J.; Pine, G.D.; Kline, D.; Barron, M.; Cheung, P.D.

1989-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model using the four scenarios defined for the Energy Modeling Forum Number 9 (EMF-9) described in EMF-9 Working Paper 9.4 (1987). The analysis is designed both to showcase the GRI North American Regional model as well as to infer meaningful results about the North American natural gas system. The focus of the analysis is not R ampersand D per se; R ampersand D analysis using the model is conducted regularly by GRI and described elsewhere. Rather, the objective is to analyze some of the major uncertainties in the North American gas market, uncertainties that potentially affect all players including GRI. In particular, the authors seek to quantify the overall economic environment in which production, transmission, distribution, consumption, and R ampersand D decisions will be made and how different that overall environment might be under alternative assumptions. An attendant objective of this analysis has been to enlist economists from a range of organizations (producers, regulators, GRI, and consultants) to carefully scrutinize the GRI North American Regional model and results. In particular, the coauthors were assembled from diverse organizations to review and evaluate model outputs, applying their particular experience and perspective. The four EMF-9 scenarios upon which this paper is based are described in detail later in this document. Briefly, scenario one represents a world with a surfeit of gas and a relatively high oil price projection; scenario two considers a lower oil price forecast; scenario three assumes a pessimistic outlook for the gas resource base with the same oil prices as scenario one; and scenario four examines a higher level of demand for gas in the North American gas market. An important objective of this analysis is to illustrate the predictive power of multi-scenario comparisons (as contrasted with detailed analysis of any individual scenario)

Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year AD 2010 for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

1995-01-01

A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woods, T.J.

1993-03-01

A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

The prospects for Russian gas demand and exports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, J.; Dobozi, I.; Maichel, G.; de Vries, R.

1995-01-01

Three contributions to the debate on the future of Russian internal gas demand and exports are presented. In the first, it is argued that Russia's domestic demand will continue to fall due to a combination of payment enforcement for large industrial enterprises and their closure arising from restructuring. Information on gas demand is difficult to interpret, but the most significant factor during 1993-94 was the non-payment of bills without supply disconnection. It is estimated that the falling internal demand will put Russia in the position by 2010 of being able roughly to double its exports to Europe compared with 1993. This could be at relatively low cost since the requirement for investment in production and transmission facilities will not be large. The second author examines economic factors that will decided the size of the Russian ''gas bubble''. Uncertainties in domestic demand open up a wide range of scenarios. The predictions of the first author are regarded as an extreme ''low demand case''. Factors which could increase demand are an anticipated turnaround in the Russian economy in the mid 1990s and the likelihood of energy intensive industries, in which gas would have a competitive advantage, remaining as the backbone of the economy. The third contribution discusses natural gas supply and demand forecasts for Western Europe and concludes that the completion of the Gamal-Europe project, completing a second gas supply line from Russia to Europe, is essential. (U.K.)

Natural gas demand prospects in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwon, Young-Jin [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1997-06-01

Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs.

Natural gas demand prospects in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young-Jin Kwon

1997-01-01

Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs

Southwest British Columbia natural gas supply and deliverability: Discussion paper

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

A review is presented of energy in British Columbia, the role of natural gas, and options available to enhance gas supply security in the province's most densely populated area, the southwest. British Columbia has abundant natural gas supplies, and production exceeds domestic demand. In 1992, natural gas supplied ca 25% of total provincial end-use energy requirements, but this share is expected to rise to 30% by 2015. Although some say that the province's natural gas production and transmission system should serve only domestic needs, this would have significant negative impacts. Domestic gas supply policy allows gas consumers to contract their own supplies, but contract security is required. Provincial guidelines allow demand-side programs to compete with supply sources to ensure that the resource profile is achieved at least cost. In the southwest, natural gas demand is projected to increase from 189 PJ in 1991 to 262 PJ by 2005. Most gas supplied to this region comes from northeast British Columbia through pipelines that are generally fully contracted. Short-term deliverability can be a problem, especially in peak winter demand periods. The gas industry's contingency plans for shortages are outlined and alternatives to enhance deliverability to the southwest are assessed, including storage, expansion of the pipeline system, supply curtailment, and peaking supply contracts. Aspects of provincial natural gas planning are discussed, including security of supply and deliverability, economic and environmental impacts, consumer costs, safety, and the public interest. A least-cost option for enhancing deliverability (underground storage and an additional liquefied natural gas plant) is estimated to cost consumers $3.69/GJ over 20 years. 9 figs., 1 tab

Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1969-01-01

This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

Natural gas participation on brazilian demand supply of liquefied petroleum gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freitas Rachid, L.B. de

1991-01-01

Natural Gas Liquids Production, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) among them, has undergone a continuous growth and technological development until the first half of the eighties. This paper presents the natural gas processing activity development in Brazil, in the last 20 years, and the increasing share of LPG produced from natural gas in the supply of LPG domestic market. Possibilities of achieving greater shares are discussed, based on economics of natural gas processing projects. Worldwide gas processing installed capacity and LPG pricing tendencies, and their influence in the construction of new Natural Gas Processing Units in Brazil, are also discussed. (author)

Developments on the European energy market. Part 1. Natural gas supply. Extra import covers growing natural gas demand in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Gelder, J.W.

2000-01-01

This first part of a series on developments in the European gas market features the growth in gas supply. 35% of the gas demand must be covered from sources outside Europe. For the future additional imports are required from countries such as the Russian Federation, Algeria and Nigeria. Over the next few years the artificial link between ga and oil prices will disappear, bringing the gas price to a structurally lower level. It will be of crucial importance that gas suppliers will not be able to form cartels to keep prices high. All competing projects will curb price increases on the European market, but will definitely result in more freedom of choice for European natural gas consumers

World oil supply and demand'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1997-01-01

Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

2009-09-15

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

1997-01-01

Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

Canadian gas supply : an update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rochefort, T.

1998-01-01

An overview of the daily production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) from 1986 to 1997 was presented. This presentation also outlined Canadian production trends, Canadian reserves and resources, and supply challenges. Ultimate conventional marketable gas from the WCSB, the Scotian Shelf, the Beaufort Sea and Canada's Arctic region was estimated at 591 TCF. Issues regarding supply and demand of natural gas such as the impact of electricity restructuring on pricing, generation fuel mix, the capacity of the U.S. market to absorb Canadian heavy oil production, and the influence of the rate of technological advances on supply and demand were outlined. The overall conclusion confirmed the health and competitiveness of the Canadian upstream sector and expressed confidence that the WCSB can support rising levels of production to meet the expected continued market growth. tabs., figs

Proceedings of the CERI North American natural gas conference and Calgary energy show 2005 : walking the tightrope : supply and demand in delicate balance. CD ROM ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This conference addressed issues concerning current and immediate supplies of natural gas in the North American marketplace, with particular reference to supply and demand growth. Alberta's resource potential as well as its position in the North American market were reviewed, along with the decline of onshore resources in the United States. Exogenous future supplies were reviewed, as well as supplies in Arctic Canada and Alaska. Gas hydrates were discussed as a possible fuel for the future. North American demand issues were examined, including the Alaska Gas Pipeline and Mexico's natural gas potential. Pricing issues were also reviewed along with issues concerning natural gas end-users such as wholesalers and offshore manufacturers of petro-chemical feedstocks. The volatility of the natural gas market was discussed with reference to future gas prices. The conference featured 24 presentations, of which 5 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

Outline of energy (electricity) supply and demand outlook in Asian APEC countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujime, Kazuya

1995-01-01

Oil: Japan's oil demand is projected to be on a gradual decline in the future due to implementation of policy measures aimed at achieving that objective, while consumption of oil in three areas - China, NIES and six ASEAN countries -- is projected to increase to reach a level nearly three times as large as Japan's demand by 2010. Supply of oil in the region is projected to level off, making it necessary for the region to increase its reliance on other areas for additional volumes of oil supply. Coal: Demand for coal is projected to grow against a background of expansion of coal-fired power generation. Coal demand in China, in particular, is projected to grow to such an extent that China may become a net coal importer, thus having a great impact on coal supply and demand in Asian countries. Natural gas: Demand for natural gas is projected to grow in the region, centering on NIES and ASEAN countries. Although production in ASEAN countries is expected to increase, the region is anticipated to increase its reliance on other areas for natural gas supply from medium - and long term perspectives. Oil products: Demand for oil products is projected to grow due to stepped-up industrialization and motorization in China, NIES and ASEAN countries. From medium - and long-term perspectives, considerable volumes of additional oil product supply will become necessary, unless large-scale refineries are newly built or expanded within the region centering on China. (author)

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

2011-01-01

An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

On the demand for natural gas in urban China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Yihua; Zheng, Xinye; Han, Yi

2014-01-01

Using a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during the period of 2006–2009, this study aims to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. Natural gas consumption is specified as a function of its own price; substitute prices; urban wages; and other supply, climate, and housing characteristics. Using a feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) technique, which controls for panel heteroskedasticity and panel correlation, we find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic when other covariates (e.g., the supply of natural gas pipeline and heating degree days) are controlled. In addition, there are large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions. There is a substantial income effect on demand for natural gas in southern China, whereas the northern regions are found to have a higher price effect. In addition, the substitution effect between coal and natural gas is significant in North China but is not significant in South China. These findings have several important policy implications for natural gas pricing and supply cost analysis in the context of China. - Highlights: • We estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. • We use a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during 2006–2009. • We use a feasible generalised least squares approach. • We find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic. • We find large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. An occasional publication of Gas Research Institute on topics of current interest. December 1989

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1989-12-01

The report summarizes the 1989 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which was adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of GRI's 1991 R and D program. Summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends are presented. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1989 projection, and analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration energy supply and demand, a comparison of the 1989 projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

1992-06-01

The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

European future natural gas demand and supply diversification: key issues for Central and Eastern Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller-Elschner, E.

1996-01-01

policy and the activities of the ECE as well as the promoters of the Energy Charter are fostering this process. (3) All European gas industries, in addition, are confronted with the following challenges: to meet the growing gas demand by securing additional gas supplies; to build new pipelines and storage facilities; to diversify gas supplies (eastern and central European countries); to optimize diversification of gas supplies (Western European countries); to interconnect pipeline grids and to strengthen security of supply, as the dominating goal of the whole European gas business

BC gas takes new approach to gas supply optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cawdery, J.; Swoveland, C.

1992-01-01

Wide-ranging changes have taken place in the US and Canada since the mid-1980s in the way that local gas distribution utilities and large industrial customers contract for their gas supplies. This paper reports that these changes have been brought about by open-access policies, the intent of which was to allow customers more latitude to make their gas purchase and transportation arrangements and to improve the access of shippers to available gas transmission capacity. The effects of the new open-access regime have been profound on both sides of the border. More than 70% of North American gas supplies are now sold under unbundled arrangements in which gas supply is contracted under separate commodity and transportation agreements. For local distribution utilities, the numbers of potential supply options have become extremely large. Analysis of these options has become increasingly complex with the need to take account of complicated contract provisions, a wider range of storage options and swap arrangements with other utilities, opportunities for some customers to purchase gas directly and uncertainty about future demand, prices and supplier reliability

A new technology aimed at re-establishing a global sulphur supply/demand balance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slavens, A.F.; Jorgensen, C.; Ogg, D.

2009-01-01

The world's sulphur supply is mainly determined by involuntary production of elemental sulphur during the processing of oil and gas. As a result, sulphur supply is decoupled from demand, resulting in an imbalance between the two. For almost two decades, sulphur supply has exceeded demand, which has raised significant concerns for oil and gas producers such as where to store all of the excess sulphur, and how to transport a low-value commodity to market in an economically attractive fashion. Black and Veatch is involved in the development of a new technology called sulphur to energy process (STEP TM ) which has the potential to assist in balancing global sulphur supply and demand, as well as affording other benefits such as low-emission energy production. This paper presented the potential merits of the STEP as a means to reestablish a global sulphur supply/demand balance for the world trading market. It explored the other potential benefits that may result from the use of this new technology and compared STEP to other technologies and operating schemes that regulate sulphur supply. It was concluded that STEP has the potential to allow the processor to produce elemental sulphur when demand is high, or to provide safe and ecological disposal when demand is low, with the added benefits of energy recovery from the sulphur combustion process, and sour gas reservoir sweetening over time as sulphur dioxide reacts with hydrogen sulphide present in the reservoir. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs

Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allison, E.

2009-01-01

This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

The cost of longer-run gas supply to Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, P. R.

1996-01-01

The supply, demand and price outlook for natural gas in Europe were examined in detail. Demand for natural gas estimated to grow an average of 2.3% per annum, which will increase import dependence from 130 to 320 BCM over the next 30 years. For the immediate future profitable indigenous supply was predicted, aided by large proven and probable reserves, and technological advances. Indigenous output was forecast to increase by some 60% by 2025. Future international oil prices indicate gas-equivalent border values adequate to secure profitable supply from a variety of external sources leading to continuing competition for markets by producers and continuing diversification of imports. 30 refs., 9 tabs

Gas in Europe: supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

It is predicted that natural gas consumption in western Europe could rise by more than 55% over the next two decades, from 290bn cubic metres (cm) in 1991 to 450bn cm in 2010. This growth, projected by the consultants, Arthur D Little, reflects the environmental and economic attractions of natural gas, particularly in the power generation sector. Another consultant, Poten and Partners, predicts an even greater rise in gas consumption, from 301bn cm in 1992 to 482 bn cm in 2010. However, while demand is forecast to increase in all major European gas markets, indigenous production within Europe is expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future, with indigenous supplies projected to peak at approximately 350bn cubic metres per year (cm/y) in the late 1990s. This raises the prospect of significant supply constraints emerging in Europe. (author)

Security of gas supply in open markets. LNG and power at a turning point

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Since the 'IEA Study on Security of Gas Supply' was published in 1995, many member countries have started to open their gas and electricity markets to competition. Governments progressively withdrew from directly managing the gas sector; they concentrate now on setting objectives and the framework for competition. With the continued growth of gas demand and the decline of domestic reserves, most IEA countries have to import more gas, mainly for power generation. This requires access to gas reserves at competitive conditions, as well as timely investment in new infrastructure to ensure a reliable gas supply. Reform has led to open markets, where supply and demand are balanced by the market. In the gas sector, supply is capacity-bound and large parts of the demand side are inelastic. The study looks at how governments and other stakeholders in IEA countries respond to the need to create a framework that enables the players to deliver secure and reliable gas supply at the border and all the way down to the final customer. This book analyses the most recent developments in security of gas supply and reliability in all IEA regions in the context of open markets and in view of the new demand and supply trends. A CD-Rom featuring the positions of the main stakeholders (governments, regulators, industry, customers and other organisations) is included with the publication. 'Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets' is a follow-up of 'Flexibility in Natural Gas Supply and Demand' in the IEA series on energy market reforms

Role of stranded gas in increasing global gas supplies

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.

2013-01-01

This report synthesizes the findings of three regional studies in order to evaluate, at the global scale, the contribution that stranded gas resources can make to global natural gas supplies. Stranded gas, as defined for this study, is natural gas in discovered conventional gas and oil fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. The regional studies evaluated the cost of bringing the large volumes of undeveloped gas in stranded gas fields to selected markets. In particular, stranded gas fields of selected Atlantic Basin countries, north Africa, Russia, and central Asia are screened to determine whether the volumes are sufficient to meet Europe’s increasing demand for gas imports. Stranded gas fields in Russia, central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia are also screened to estimate development, production, and transport costs and corresponding gas volumes that could be supplied to Asian markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The data and cost analysis presented here suggest that for the European market and the markets examined in Asia, the development of stranded gas provides a way to meet projected gas import demands for the 2020-to-2040 period. Although this is a reconnaissance-type appraisal, it is based on volumes of gas that are associated with individual identified fields. Individual field data were carefully examined. Some fields were not evaluated because current technology was insufficient or it appeared the gas was likely to be held off the export market. Most of the evaluated stranded gas can be produced and delivered to markets at costs comparable to historical prices. Moreover, the associated volumes of gas are sufficient to provide an interim supply while additional technologies are developed to unlock gas diffused in shale and hydrates or while countries transition to making a greater use of renewable energy sources.

North American demand and supply dynamics - implications for pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, R.

1998-01-01

Key issues regarding the natural gas industry and the long-term outlook for North American supply and demand for natural gas were discussed. The North American market was characterized as not a mature market, meaning that demand will continue to increase in the coming years. It was confidently predicted that supplies will be available for development at reasonable costs. However, real prices will slowly increase over time. Short-term fundamentals, expectations and pricing outlook were also discussed. The influence of upstream activity levels, the health of the economy, weather and storage were all identified as factors that will impact on short-term price expectations. According to this author a minor increase in price may be expected during the winter of 1998/1999. tabs., figs

Forecasting: Canada's NGL [natural gas liquids] supply outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, A.B.

1992-01-01

A perspective is given on Canada's supply and demand balance of ethane, propane, and butane, and Canada's participation in meeting the expected increases in United States import requirements. Increases in Canadian natural gas liquids (NGL) supply depends on increases in natural gas production. Since new production (except for the Shell Caroline gas discovery) is tending to have lower yields of liquids, NGL supply will not increase as much as the increase in natural gas production. Nearly 50% of Canadian NGLs are produced in straddle plants located at the inlet of gas transmission lines. Surpluses of ethane and high capital costs means that new straddle plants will not be built in the near future, but expansions of existing plants will occur to maximize propane and butane production. The potential ethane supply will increase, notably from the Shell Caroline project. The primary market for ethane in Canada is the Alberta petrochemical industry, and a new ethylene plant to be started up in 1994 will increase demand. The use of ethane for miscible flooding will decrease to the end of the decade. Propane production is expected to increase to a total of 180,000 bbl/d by 2000; demand growth in traditional markets such as heating and cooking is expected to be marginal, and the petrochemical sector is expected to show the largest growth in propane demand. The use of butane for producing methyl tertiary butyl ether is expected to increase butane demand for the rest of the decade. Exports of NGL to the USA are largely via the Cochin pipeline system. Modest increases in NGL exports are expected. A number of gas pipeline projects are at various stages of planning, and completion of these projects would enable an increase in Canadian exports. 8 figs

Canadian gas supply: going up? or down?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woronuk, R. H.

1999-01-01

With regard to Canada's gas reserves there are clear indications that the gas market is moving from a supply/demand balance controlled by demand to one that is controlled by supply. There is evidence of a recognition that the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) , the source of most of Canada's gas supply is a mature basin, with over half of its reserves already discovered, that consumption has exceeded reserve additions for all but one of the last sixteen years, and that under these conditions consumption cannot grow, or even be maintained indefinitely. The central argument advanced in this paper is that the era of ever increasing production from the WCSB is nearing its end and that a more aggressive approach to exploration and development in the WCSB, especially in the deeper and more environmentally sensitive areas, together with the exploitation of conventional gas in frontier areas and unconventional resources will be necessary to prevent projected declines in supply. Identification of new geological plays, exploration for and connection of reserves from frontier regions and the development of technologies for enhanced recoveries will involve increasingly long lead times, therefore, initiatives to address forthcoming supply issues must begin immediately. 4 refs., 17 figs

Uranium supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-05-01

This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

LPG world supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmes, Ch.

2008-01-01

Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabalu, Helen

2010-01-01

Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region. (author)

Outlook for Noth American natural gas supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuuskraa, V.A.

1995-01-01

The underlying resource base for North America natural gas is large, sufficient for nearly 100 years of current consumption. As such, the issues are not the size of the resource, but how to convert this resource into economically competitive supply. The key questions are: Will the cost (price) of natural gas remain competitive? What is the status of near-term deliverability? Will there be enough supply to meet growing demand? These economic and market issues frame the outlook for gas supplies in North America. Most importantly, they will determine how natural gas emerges from its competition for markets with other fuels and electricity. The paper addresses these questions by examining: (1) the underlying nature of the natural gas resource base; (2) the current status and trends in deliverability; and, (3) the potential of new technologies for producing gas more cost-effectively. (author)

America: AGA [American Gas Association] initiative aims to boost gas demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraser, K.M.

1992-01-01

This article focuses on the aim of the American Gas Association to increase natural gas demand in the key areas of gas electric generation, natural gas vehicles, gas cooling, and conversion of oil burning facilities, electric water heaters and household appliances such as space heating, stoves, washers and lighting. The need to improve the reliability of natural gas supplies is discussed. It is anticipated that natural gas will not replace coal as the main energy source for power generation, but that it will help utilities to meet environmental regulations. (UK)

GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy supply and demand to 2010. 1991 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

1991-04-01

The report summarizes the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1991 projection, a brief discussion of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer (IPP) methodology and projection, a comparison of the 1991 edition with previous projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

The balance of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darmayan, P.

1981-01-01

The Supply and Demand Committee of the Uranium Institute was established to monitor continuously information and developments bearing on the uranium market and to publish from time to time reports giving its views on the supply and demand outlook. The last Uranium Institute supply and demand report was compiled at the beginning of 1979. Its main conclusions were that from 1979 to 1990 the flexibilities of the market were such as to offer adequate scope to producers and consumers of uranium to ensure a balance between supply and demand. Is that conclusion still valid one and a half years later. Some of the Supply and Demand Committee's more recent estimates are reported under the headings: reactor orders and cancellations; revised Institute forecasts of nuclear capacity; uranium supply; main implications of the new forecasts. (U.K.)

Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2005-01-01

The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

Engineering economics applied to supply and demand strategy in the gas industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gibson, G H

1978-10-01

A discussion covers some general aspects of long-term strategy in the gas industry, including the requirement of at least six years to develop storage facilities and gas plant; planning to meet all demands except those in the most severe winter occurring once in 50 yr; forecasting six years ahead (the 50 yr winter, the severe one-day demand, regional demands); development of a plant investment program to meet demands; the Cost Polygon method of determining the best plant mix; the mathematical model approach with which to examine every possible combination of plants available in any one year; the example of construction restraints for LNG storage; orientation of this model toward correct balance in peak shaving for say LNG, SNG, and salt cavities; a second, more powerful model for evaluating a least-cost investment program among the longer term plant options including LNG, SNG from oil or coal, and storage in salt cavities, disused coal mines, aquifers, or spent gas fields.

Electricity and gas supplies under pressure. 2005 winter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewiner, C.; David, P.; Coquet, P.

2005-10-01

Point of view on the demand for electricity and gas in light of European deregulation in 2005. Demand for electricity and gas by consumers and businesses soared to record highs as temperatures continued to fall steeply across Europe in January and February 2005. While unexpected seasonal trends have always had a major impact on electricity and gas supplies, this time, it occurred at a time when deregulation across all European markets is bringing new complexity notably in pricing and availability of supply. So what conclusions can be drawn from this acute market situation? Is deregulation delivering what it promised? What are the possible impacts on the business model of suppliers? What trends are we likely to observe in response to the challenges of operating in the new deregulated market place?

A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villada, Juan; Olaya, Yris

2013-01-01

Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure. - Highlights: ► We build a simulation model for analyzing natural gas trade in Colombia. ► The model captures the structure of the gas network and on market rules. ► We simulate investment decisions to increase short-term security of supply. ► Securing supply would need LNG imports and expansion of pipeline capacity.

Prospects of natural gas demand and pipeline projects in the East Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishii, A.

1997-01-01

The development of the natural gas industry in East Asia was discussed. It was predicted that by 2010, the demand for natural gas could potentially reach 80 billion cubic feet per day. This represents an 8 per cent per year growth rate from a 1995 baseline. Similarly, it was predicted that by 2010, the region's natural gas supply could potentially reach 65 billion cubic feet per day which would represent 2.5 times the supply of natural gas in 1995. The additional demand will most likely be supplied from the Middle East in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), from Eastern Russia through pipelines of LNG, or from North America in the form of LNG. Some gas may also be supplied from Central Asia through pipelines. The price and cost of natural gas are major uncertainties in the future of the East Asian gas demand. Pipeline projects from Russia to China were discussed. Japan and Korea are also interested in collaborating on the feasibility study with Russia and China on a 3,400 km pipeline of 60 inch diameter from the Koviktinskoye gas field through Mongolia to Beijing, Tianjin and Korea, transporting 20 to 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually. A natural gas pipeline project transporting gas from the southern edge of the Sakhalin Island to the Tokyo area was also discussed. The project would involve construction of a 2,200 km 40-48 inch pipeline, much of it undersea, transporting 6 to 12 million tonnes of liquid natural gas, annually

Wood supply and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

2011-01-01

At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

Uranium supply and demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spriggs, M J

1976-01-01

Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

Balancing natural gas policy : Fueling the demands of a growing economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, R.

2003-01-01

In March 2002 a request was made to the National Petroleum Council by the United States Secretary of Energy to examine the potential implications of new supplies, technologies, perceptions of risk on natural gas demand, supplies, and delivery through 2025. In addition, the Secretary was looking for insight on energy market dynamics and an outlook on the longer-term sustainability of natural gas supplies. Ideas on ways to improve the productivity and efficiency of North American natural gas markets while ensuring adequate and reliable supplies of energy for consumers were also requested. Two options were examined by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). The reactive path involves public policies which remain in conflict, while the balanced future involves aligned public policies. It was discovered that 75 per cent of long-term American gas needs will be met by traditional North American producing areas which will be unable to meet projected demand. Production growth is desirable in the Rockies and deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as non conventional production. After careful examination, it was determined that demand flexibility and efficiency must be improved, along with an increase in supply diversity. Infrastructure must be enhanced and sustained, and efficient markets must be promoted. All these measures would result in higher economic growth, higher employment, and stronger industrial activity. figs

Storage is absolutely necessary to balance supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2009-01-01

Before liberalization, gas storage was built to balance supply and demand (on a seasonal basis), as well as for broader security of supply concerns. With liberalization, companies started to use storage in a more flexible way as they were no longer obliged to prioritize security of supply. The decline in swing production in the North Sea should have triggered an increase in storage capacity. However, in the UK, investment in storage was neglected until too late. The major points of interest in continental Europe are as follows: due to geological constraints, Latvia is the only Baltic state to have underground storage; storage capacity represents 49% of annual Austria demand; Germany has the biggest European storage facility; in Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Portugal, just one company in each country has all the storage capacity; in Romania, Romgaz has 92% of storage capacity; in the Czech Republic, RWE owns 75% of the storage; in Slovakia, GDF SUEZ and E.ON have most of the capacity; and storage in Ukraine represents a huge opportunity with a capacity of 34 bcm (billion cubic meters). In oil, strategic stocks are a reality and have been used but in gas, strategic stocks do not exist except 5.1 bcm in Italy, 1 bcm in Spain and 1.2 bcm are being built in Hungary. Some possible EU changes could have an impact on the entire European gas market. Just outside EU-27, Ukraine has a form of strategic storage which represents 10% of its suppliers' annual supplies

Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

2012-02-01

Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand

OpenAIRE

Woon Gyu Choi; Seonghwan Oh

2000-01-01

This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is subs...

Natural gas supply in Denmark - A model of natural gas transmission and the liberalized gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bregnbaek, L.

2005-01-01

In the wake of the liberalization of European energy markets a large area of research has spawned. This area includes the development of mathematical models to analyze the impact of liberalization with respect to efficiency, supply security and environment, to name but a few subjects. This project describes the development of such a model. In Denmark the parallel liberalization of the markets of natural gas and electricity and the existence of an abundance of de-centralized combined heat and power generators of which most are natural gas fired, leads to the natural assumption that the future holds a greater deal of interdependency for these markets. A model is developed describing network flows in the natural gas transmission system, the main arteries of natural gas supply, from a technical viewpoint. This yields a technical bounding on the supply available in different parts of the country. Additionally the economic structure of the Danish natural gas market is formulated mathematically giving a description of the transmission, distribution and storage options available to the market. The supply and demand of natural gas is put into a partial equilibrium context by integrating the developed model with the Balmorel model, which describes the markets for electricity and district heat. Specifically on the demand side the consumption of natural gas for heat and power generation is emphasized. General results and three demonstration cases are presented to illustrate how the developed model can be used to analyze various energy policy issues, and to disclose the strengths and weaknesses in the formulation. (au)

Optimal transport on supply-demand networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Han; Wang, Bing-Hong; Zhao, Li-Chao; Zhou, Changsong; Zhou, Tao

2010-06-01

In the literature, transport networks are usually treated as homogeneous networks, that is, every node has the same function, simultaneously providing and requiring resources. However, some real networks, such as power grids and supply chain networks, show a far different scenario in which nodes are classified into two categories: supply nodes provide some kinds of services, while demand nodes require them. In this paper, we propose a general transport model for these supply-demand networks, associated with a criterion to quantify their transport capacities. In a supply-demand network with heterogeneous degree distribution, its transport capacity strongly depends on the locations of supply nodes. We therefore design a simulated annealing algorithm to find the near optimal configuration of supply nodes, which remarkably enhances the transport capacity compared with a random configuration and outperforms the degree target algorithm, the betweenness target algorithm, and the greedy method. This work provides a start point for systematically analyzing and optimizing transport dynamics on supply-demand networks.

Long term contracts in portfolios of gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, D.

1992-01-01

This paper promotes the idea of long-term contracting for natural gas local distributors and utilities. It presents a brief history of how the spot-market developed and the effects spot-marketing can have in times of supply shortages. This has also resulted in a drastic decrease in exploration and development in the gas industry as gas supplies have exceeding demand, driving the prices down. The paper proposes several methods to restabilize the long-term contracting of gas by considering volume and pricing flexibility. Some brief discussions of industry-wide statistics are presented to show reserve replacement costs which would be needed to preserve the industry in a profit-making situation

Demand powers ahead [Gas in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potter, N.

1994-01-01

Natural gas demand in Europe has been growing steadily for many years and is likely to go on increasing in the domestic sector, the industrial sector and in power generation. In this review a number of features of the market supply situation are reported. Potential new markets for Norwegian gas in eastern and central Europe are being evaluated. Other exporting countries are also keen to obtain a greater share in the expanding European market. Among them are Russia, Algeria and Nigeria, but political uncertainties in each of these countries are a cause for concern. Algeria has new pipelines to supply Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Russian company, Gazprom, has launched the construction of a pipeline to link new gas fields in northern Siberia with western Europe and has set up contracts with German companies which are facilitating the sale of Russian gas in Europe. Supply potential also exists in some of the other countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. A group of leading European gas utilities are exploring the feasibility of imports from Iran either via a pipeline link or as liquefied natural gas. The United Kingdom hopes to export North Sea gas into Europe through the proposed Interconnector pipeline from Bacton to Zeebrugge, in th long-term, though, the pipeline may be used for imports into the UK. A controversial proposal to introduce third-party access to European pipelines could alter the whole structure of the market. (UK)

Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

2005-01-01

Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

Germany's Energy Demand and Supply Until 2020: Implications for Germany's Foreign Energy Policy

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Stellmann, Lars

2003-01-01

.... Russia may not be available to provide the amount necessary. The gas situation is somewhat less urgent, as a supply shift will have to take place only after 2010, when the Norwegian and Dutch gas reserves cease to satisfy the export demand...

Oil prices: demand and supply. Lesson plan

OpenAIRE

anonymous

2005-01-01

Upon completion of this lesson, students will be able to list the determinants of demand and supply, recognize which factors will cause demand curves or supply curves to shift, determine equilibrium using a demand/supply graph, and show the effects on price and quantity when equilibrium changes.

U.S. natural gas pipeline flow and demand trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.

1992-01-01

It is no surprise that regional natural gas supply and demand patterns in North America are constantly changing. A consensus of forecasters agree that the natural gas resource base is larger than envisaged in the early 1980s due to advances in exploration and production technology. In addition, on the demand side more gas will be burned by US power generators to meet growth in electricity. Gas consumption is up in the commercial sector, and natural gas is correctly seen as environmentally protective. But how much more natural gas does the US need? This paper reports that new pipeline projects are springing up all over the nation --- 43 to be exact, with most of them connecting gas deliverability out of basins west of the Mississippi to new markets along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts

Long term natural gas supply in North America: prospects for mexican exports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elizalde Baltierra, A.

1999-01-01

The aim of this work is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect future Mexican natural gas exports to the United States. Firstly, we study the long term natural gas supply/demand balance in North America over the period from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, we analyze the main driving forces determining future natural gas supply and demand in Mexico, which also allows us to discuss the prospects for Mexican gas exports. Finally, our analysis suggests that: in the short and medium term (2000-2010), Mexico will probably continue to increase imports of USA gas in order to satisfy increasing demand and will probably not export large volumes of gas to the USA; in the long term (2020-2020), Mexico could resume exports to the USA in sizeable quantities. Two main conditions appear necessary to resume exports: Premex's budgetary constraints should be relaxed and/or new foreign investment should be able to participate in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector. (author)

Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-12-01

Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the US petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to US refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of a US energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection, which was completed in August 1991, assumed that, in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East, the fundamentals of the oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing rapidity

Demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, C. J.; Tang, K.; Kelley, J. H.; Berger, B. J.

1979-01-01

Projections are made for the demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA. Industrial sectors considered are petroleum refining, ammonia synthesis, methanol production, isocyanate manufacture, edible oil processing, coal liquefaction, fuel cell electricity generation, and direct iron reduction. Presently, almost all the hydrogen required is produced by reforming of natural gas or petroleum fractions. Specific needs and emphases are recommended for future research and development to produce hydrogen from other sources to meet the requirements of these industrial sectors. The data and the recommendations summarized in this paper are based on the Workshop 'Supply and Demand of Hydrogen as Chemical Feedstock' held at the University of Houston on December 12-14, 1977.

Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochner, Stefan; Dieckhöner, Caroline

2012-01-01

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports into several European countries. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable. The analysis thereby highlights the importance of taking the political stability of supply countries into account when assessing the security of European gas imports. - Highlights: ► Impact of political instability on security of natural gas supplies. ► Analysis of export stop during Libyan civil war in 2011. ► Model-based analysis of potential future North African crisis scenarios. ► Findings: spread of uprisings to Algeria more critical for Europe. ► Price effects and potential demand curtailment for consumers.

Update on Canadian energy supply and demand report, 1998-2025 : summary of results from Round One

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-10-05

The National Energy Board is required to periodically review the outlook of Canadian energy supply and demand for major energy commodities including oil, natural gas and electricity. The National Energy Board undertook a first round of consultations between April 15 and May 1, to seek input regarding Canadian energy supply and demand to 2025. The topics discussed at Round One of these consultations were: (1) oil prices, (2) macroeconomics, (3) energy demand, (4) electricity, (5) coal, (6) crude oil and bitumen resources, (7) natural gas and natural gas liquids, (8) alternative and renewable fuels, (9) emissions, and (10) cases and sensitivities. The comments received on each topic and the Board`s recommendations were presented. A second round of consultation will be held early in 1999.

Demand and supply of wood fuels in the emission trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ranta, T.; Lahtinen, P.; Laitila, J.

2005-01-01

The emission trade according to the EU directive on greenhouse gas emission allowance started at the beginning of the year 2005. This will boost the demand for wood fuels because of the addition-al value of CO 2 neutrality compared to fossil fuels. This bulletin covers the development of the demand and supply of wood fuels from 2002 to 2010 both at a national and a provincial level. The demand and supply balance of wood fuels will be evaluated both without the effect of emission trade and when the emission trade price level is 20 euro/ton- CO 2 for emission rights in 2010. The evaluations of fuel consumption for individual boilers were made with the help of the databases of Electrowatt-Ekono Ltd. The demand for wood fuels was estimated to double by the year 2010, being almost 50 TWh. The share of forest chips of the demand was one third, i.e. 17 TWh. The supply potential was divided into forest chips and solid by-products from forest industry. Forest chip sources included small diameter wood from young forests and logging residues and stumps from re-generation felling sites. The supply potential calculations of logging residues and stump biomass were based on databases of regeneration felling stands. The biomass potential from small diamreter wood was evaluated on the basis of field measurements of NFI 8 and 9 at a provincial level and multi-source data at a municipal level. In 2010, the supply potential of by-products was estimated to be 28 TWh of which 11 TWh was marketable out-side of the internal use of forest industry. Correspondingly, the theoretical potential of forest chips was estimated to be 51 TWh and the techno-economical potential 24 TWh. As a result of the regional optimization model, the energy use of wood fuels was 29 TWh, which was 59 % of the potential demand. In emission trade the demand was 33 TWh, which was 68 % of the potential demand. Regionally, the potential demand for wood fuels for energy use was higher than the supply in all provinces

German natural gas market and the international supply situation. Pt. 1. Supply market for natural gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dolinski, U [Deutsches Inst. fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.). Abt. Bergbau und Energie

1978-01-01

Since the oil crisis the buyers's market started to change to a seller's market as a result of the worldwide rising demand for natural gas. This development will be amplified with the increasing significance and volume of LNG trade. This depends upon the availability of handling and tanker capacities. It is considered that technical solutions are available. The internationalisation of the world natural gas market imposes changes in terms of trade for the Federal Republic of Germany. In the sixties, terms of trade made under sales considerations presented no problems. But gas buyers today are forced to accept sellers' terms looking for the buyer offering the highest prices and other sales advantages. The world gas market has assumed the features of a polypolistic market. The security of supply is not a matter of adequate reserves, but almost entirely that of terms of contract on which the natural gas supply can be ensured. It is thereby decisive, whether it will be possible in future to procure the required amount of gas at such terms that it can be sold on the German energy market at competetive rates.

Demand for storage of natural gas in northwestern Europe: Trends 2005-30

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeffler, Felix; Kuebler, Madjid

2007-01-01

We provide an estimation of the additional need for underground storage facilities in northwestern Europe until 2030. Storage is one important source to provide supply flexibility in order to match the seasonal demand for natural gas. However, this supply flexibility is now largely provided in northwestern Europe by indigenous production. Declining reserves will increase the dependency on imports from far-off sources, which are less flexible. Hence, flexibility must be provided by additional storage. Our estimation is based on production and consumption forecasts for natural gas and observations of the relationship between the supply and demand of gas and the supply and demand of flexibility in the period 1995-2005. We provide different scenarios to check for the robustness of our results. We estimate that by 2030, between 10.2 (with no strategic storage) and 29.0 billion cubic meters (BCM) of working gas volume (with 10 percent strategic storage for imports from non-EU countries) will be required, in addition to the existing 40 BCM. We conclude that, with well-functioning markets for flexibility, market forces could close a storage gap of 10.2 BCM in time. Strategic storage obligations would require state intervention and a well-balanced relation between a regulated part of the storage market for strategic reserves and the market for the operational use of storage

City gas supply management system. Toshi gas kyokyu kanri system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ota, S [Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

1991-07-05

Supply and control system of city gas (about 90% is LNG) at Tokyo Gas Company is summarized. The LNG is delivered from the high pressure, A-middle pressure and B-middle pressure stations through the low pressure governors at about 3,000 locations to the low-pressure conduit networks. The information system department uses a large-size general purpose IBM computer as a host computer, control computers at each station, and communication networks consisted mainly of the in-house wireless networks. The trunk lines are all looped, and the important facilities are dualized. Characteristic functions include the supply prediction, which takes into account the past supply and ambient temperature records, a day of the week for a particular date, and demand fluctuation trends; adjustments of each holder based on the prediction and restrictions; and piping network simulation to decide gas manufacturing patterns, and determine reasonability of local construction of complicated conduits. The monitoring and control system as the central nerve includes a quick block-wide operation at an accident from earthquake and the like to prevent wide area disasters. 8 figs., 1 tab.

EIA projections of coal supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, D.E.

1989-01-01

Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abada, Ibrahim, E-mail: ibrahim.abada@polytechnique.edu [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1 et 4 avenue de Bois Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); EDF Research and Development, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, 92140 Clamart (France); EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest (France); Massol, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.massol@ifpen.fr [Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Department of Economics, City University London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

2011-07-15

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: > We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. > Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. > Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. > Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. > Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization reasons.

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

Future butanes supply/demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitley, S.C.

1992-01-01

This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

Middle east gas: supply source of Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vivies, P. de

1995-01-01

The evolution of gas demand, the decreasing of reserves leads to the question of European future needs satisfaction. The european market can call on the russian production or middle east production. Iran has the most important reserves but the needs of the population can limit the gas supply. Yemen and Oman which have less important reserves but also less important needs to satisfy can be a serious alternative; Abu dhabi reserves are destined to asia market. The qatar has the most important gas offshore field in the world. The LNG (liquefied natural gas) seems to have a better position than gas pipeline to dispatch gas towards Europe

The importance of North Sea gas to European energy supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Probert, R.

1992-01-01

Natural gas can, of course, be transported over very long distances but, because of the economics of gas transmission, its impact is most often local. This has certainly been the case with North Sea gas, which has clearly contributed significantly to European energy supply and will continue to do so for some time to come. The historical importance of the discovery of gas in the North Sea has been that it has enabled natural gas industries to grow rapidly in North West Europe. Without North Sea gas and Dutch gas it is difficult to see how town gas would have been replaced in North West Europe. Certainly, a much smaller natural gas industry would have emerged. North Sea gas has inevitably had the greatest impact on gas markets in the countries of the European Community and this will remain the case in future. Nevertheless, it is inevitable that gas will, in future, flow across more national boundaries than in the past, and that North Sea gas will have an important part to play in meeting the Central European demand for competitively priced, secure supplies. This paper discusses the United Kingdom market for gas and future demand both in the United Kingdom and more widely in Europe. An examination of the availability of gas supplies from the North Sea suggests that it is unlikely that there will be a surplus of gas for export from the United Kingdom continental shelf. Norway will remain the main source of exports, with the Netherlands also in a strong position. Transportation and political aspects are also considered. (author)

Competition with supply and demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolle, F.

2001-01-01

If economic agents have to determine in advance their supply or demand in reaction to different market prices we may assume that their strategic instruments are supply or demand functions. The best examples for such markets are the spot markets for electricity in England and Wales, in Chile, in New Zealand, in Scandinavia and perhaps elsewhere. A further example is computerized trading in stock markets, financial markets, or commodity exchanges. The functional form of equilibria is explicitly determined in this paper. Under a certain condition, equilibria exist for every finite spread of (stochastic) autonomous demand, i.e. demand from small, non-strategically acting consumers. Contrary to competition with supply functions alone, however, there is no tendency for market prices to converge to 0 if the spread of autonomous demand increases infinitely. Lower bounds of market prices can be computed instead

Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

2017-01-01

Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

Alternative supply specifications and estimates of regional supply and demand for stumpage.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent P. Connaughton; David H. Jackson; Gerard A. Majerus

1988-01-01

Four plausible sets of stumpage supply and demand equations were developed and estimated; the demand equation was the same for each set, although the supply equation differed. The supply specifications varied from the model of regional excess demand in which National Forest harvest levels were assumed fixed to a more realistic model in which the harvest on the National...

The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market-Model-based analysis until 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochner, Stefan; Bothe, David

2009-01-01

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries

Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

2005-02-01

This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

LNG [liquefied natural gas]: Fueling energy demand in the Far East

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, R.L.

1993-01-01

An overview is presented of the supply and demand outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the far east, and the basic elements of an LNG supply project in Japan. Power generation is the primary market for LNG in the far east, due to a preference for energy supply diversity, large undeveloped gas resources, drastic improvements in power generation technology, and environmental advantages of natural gas. India and mainland China represent huge potential markets, and projects are under discussion to bring gas by pipeline from Iran or Qatar to both Pakistan or India. The economics of LNG plant development in Japan, including large ($4 billion for field and plant development) capital costs, long-term contracts, government involvement, and gas prices are discussed. Falling yen/dollar exchange rates have substantially bettered the Japanese economy in terms of gas prices. 11 figs., 2 tabs

Mackenzie Valley Pipeline market demand, supply, and infrastructure analysis : final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Co-Venturers is a consortium of petroleum companies proposing to construct a 1,400 km long, large-diameter, high-pressure natural gas transmission pipeline from the northwestern edge of the Northwest Territories to the Alberta-Northwest Territories border. The Mackenzie Valley Pipeline will bring natural gas from the Mackenzie Delta region to markets in Alberta, central and eastern Canada and the United States. Navigant Consulting Ltd. prepared this assessment of the long-term market need for natural gas produced from the Mackenzie Delta. It presents an analysis of gas demand, supply and infrastructure. Three sensitivity cases were examined, incorporating different assumptions about the initial capacity of the pipeline, potential expansion of its capacity and different levels of gas demand in Canada and the United States. The report indicates that gas markets in North America support construction of the proposed 34 million cubic metre per day pipeline in the 2009 timeframe, with possible expansion in 2015 and 2020. It also indicates that there will be enough capacity on the intra-Alberta gas transmission system to accommodate the projected deliveries of Mackenzie Delta gas. The increase in gas demand is due to an increase in residential and commercial gas consumption, electric power generation and the energy intensive bitumen extraction and processing activities in the Alberta oil sands industry. 36 tabs., 56 figs

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Fuel switching? Demand destruction? Gas market responses to price spikes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lippe, D.

2004-01-01

This presentation defined fuel switching and addressed the issue regarding which consumers have the capability to switch fuels. In response to short term price aberrations, consumers with fuel switching capabilities reduce their use of one fuel and increase consumption of an alternative fuel. For example, natural gas consumption by some consumers declines in response to price spikes relative to prices of alternative fuels. This presentation also addressed the issue of differentiating between fuel switching and demand destruction. It also demonstrated how to compare gas prices versus alternative fuel prices and how to determine when consumers will likely switch fuels. Price spikes have implications for long term trends in natural gas demand, supply/demand balances and prices. The power generating sector represents a particular class of gas consumers that reduce operating rates of gas fired plants and increase operating rates of other plants. Some gas consumers even shut down plants until gas prices declines and relative economies improve. Some practical considerations for fuel switching include storage tank capacity, domestic refinery production, winter heating season, and decline in working gas storage. tabs., figs

Modeling of gas demand using degree-day concept: case study for Ankara

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumrah, F.; Katircioglu, D.; Aykan, Y.; Okumus, S.; Kilincer, N.

2001-01-01

The demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in Turkey, as it is in the rest of the world. However, natural gas reserves and production are rather limited in Turkey.The bulk of the Turkish gas demand is met by imports. Russia currently accounts for 69% of Turkey's gas supplies. Physical shortages might occur; supplies for industrial production and household consumption could temporarily run short. Also, fluctuations in consumption might occur due to climatic reasons or peak daily industrial energy demand. Underground gas storage is a necessity in order to regulate these seasonal, daily, and hourly fluctuations. In order to effectively design and utilize underground gas storage, it is necessary to identify the market requirements. In this study, Ankara was chosen as a pilot region due to its strategical importance of being the capital city of Turkey, and a wide range of marketing surveys for the last seven years was performed. All of the factors influencing the gas consumption and the relationships between these factors were analyzed. How does gas demand behave in extremely cold weather? How does the industrial part of the city act in the consumption behavior? What are the plans of the Municipality of Ankara, responsible for the execution of the natural gas distribution project in Ankara? A model was developed based on degree-day (DD) concept, including the annual number of customers, average DDs, and the usage per customer. A history matching study was performed to verify the results of the model with the measured consumption data for the last seven years. Comparisons showed that the calculated consumption by DD model and measured daily consumption were in good agreement. Finally, by using the developed approach, the gas demand was forecasted for Ankara up to 2005. The results of this study can be used to design underground gas storage facility near Ankara. (author)

Management of natural gas supply reliability and modulation in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupas, D.

1995-01-01

France imports most of its gas, and demand for gas varies considerably between summer and winter. Faced with insufficient flexibility in its supply contracts to deal with the gas balance, Gaz de France decided to develop a policy based on combined and consistent use of a large-scale underground storage system, a suspendable clientele, and a rate policy to maintain the balance. It was the integrated character of the company that makes it possible to optimize the arrangement of these adjustment facilities. Most of the seasonal modulation is taken up by underground storage in water tables, and the peak cold complement comes from salt dome storage. Underground storage also contributes, as does the suspendable clientele, to supply reliability, with a specific quality due to their speed and versatility of use. The prime purpose of the suspendable clientele portfolio is rather to respond to supply failures, but the demand too, during periods of extreme cold, is reduced by curtailing deliveries whose contractual suspension notice time is short. (author). 3 figs

Development of Shale Gas Supply Chain Network under Market Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Chebeir

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The increasing demand of energy has turned the shale gas and shale oil into one of the most promising sources of energy in the United States. In this article, a model is proposed to address the long-term planning problem of the shale gas supply chain under uncertain conditions. A two-stage stochastic programming model is proposed to describe and optimize the shale gas supply chain network. Inherent uncertainty in final products’ prices, such as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL, is treated through the utilization of a scenario-based method. A binomial option pricing model is utilized to approximate the stochastic process through the generation of scenario trees. The aim of the proposed model is to generate an appropriate and realistic supply chain network configuration as well as scheduling of different operations throughout the planning horizon of a shale gas development project.

Preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet U.S. transportation energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, M. K.; Moore, J. S.

2002-01-01

Recent studies have indicated that substitutes for conventional petroleum resources will be needed to meet U.S. transportation energy demand in the first half of this century. One possible substitute is natural gas which can be used as a transportation fuel directly in compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas vehicles or as resource fuel for the production of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. This paper contains a preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet future U.S. transportation fuel demand. Several scenarios of natural gas demand, including transportation demand, in the U.S. to 2050 are developed. Natural gas resource estimates for the U. S. are discussed. Potential Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S. are estimated. Two scenarios of potential imports from outside North America are also developed. Considering all these potential imports, U.S. natural gas production requirements to 2050 to meet the demand scenarios are developed and compared with the estimates of U.S. natural gas resources. The comparison results in a conclusion that (1) given the assumptions made, there are likely to be supply constraints on the availability of U.S. natural gas supply post-2020 and (2) if natural gas use in transportation grows substantially, it will have to compete with other sectors of the economy for that supply-constrained natural gas

Ensuring future national gas supplies. High stakes for research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rojey, A.

1996-01-01

A considerable increase in natural gas demand has been forecast for the coming years. Present-day supply sources will be unable to cover the growing demand in Europe and new suppliers will need to be called on more and more. Diversifying to new supply sources will entail heavy investments and is bound to mean rising costs. Technical progress is necessary to reduce costs, while protecting the environment and providing improved safety conditions. Innovative solutions in the areas of production, processing, transportation and chemical conversion should in the future widen the options and outlets available to operators. (author)

The importance of flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market - The Brazilian case; A importancia da flexibilidade na oferta e na demanda de gas natural - o caso do mercado brasileiro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almeida, Jose Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti

2008-05-15

The objective of this dissertation is to identify and discuss the main tools in implementing flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market, as well as highlight those which are the most appropriate for the Brazilian market. Flexibility, in this context, means the ability to guarantee a balance of supply versus demand without deficits, considering, mainly, the seasonal variations (winter-summer). From there, the study analyzes these flexibility tools in detail. Next, it discusses which of these flexibility tools are currently being used in more mature foreign markets and which tools could be feasibly applied to the Brazilian market. This dissertation also addresses how the natural gas thermoelectric market in Brazil shows a wide range of seasonality due to this segment's nature of complementing the Brazilian hydroelectric complex. This occurs because the capacity to generate hydroelectricity depends on rainfall for supplying reservoirs. Because of this interdependence, it examines how each the natural gas industry and the power industry operate, and their convergence. The flexibility tools which are already implemented here in Brazil are then presented. Finally, additional relevant new concepts and information are discussed to support the conclusions and final comments about the flexibility tools evolution and new applications. (author)

The importance of flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market - The Brazilian case; A importancia da flexibilidade na oferta e na demanda de gas natural - o caso do mercado brasileiro

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almeida, Jose Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti

2008-05-15

The objective of this dissertation is to identify and discuss the main tools in implementing flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market, as well as highlight those which are the most appropriate for the Brazilian market. Flexibility, in this context, means the ability to guarantee a balance of supply versus demand without deficits, considering, mainly, the seasonal variations (winter-summer). From there, the study analyzes these flexibility tools in detail. Next, it discusses which of these flexibility tools are currently being used in more mature foreign markets and which tools could be feasibly applied to the Brazilian market. This dissertation also addresses how the natural gas thermoelectric market in Brazil shows a wide range of seasonality due to this segment's nature of complementing the Brazilian hydroelectric complex. This occurs because the capacity to generate hydroelectricity depends on rainfall for supplying reservoirs. Because of this interdependence, it examines how each the natural gas industry and the power industry operate, and their convergence. The flexibility tools which are already implemented here in Brazil are then presented. Finally, additional relevant new concepts and information are discussed to support the conclusions and final comments about the flexibility tools evolution and new applications. (author)

GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-04-01

The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich

2008-01-01

A steady increase of natural gas demand can be observed in Europe over the last decades. Due to the European obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the trend toward natural gas is expected to continue in the future. The increased consumption is faced by comparably low indigenous gas resources within Europe, so that the dependency of Europe on gas imports from abroad will rise in the future. In addition to the existing supply sources Russia and Algeria, gas resources from the Middle East and the Caspian and the Central Asian regions may be supply options to cover Europe's gas demand in the future. Against this background, possible natural gas supply options as well as the transport infrastructure to and within Europe are discussed regarding their technical capacity and their costs. With the help of a cost-minimization model of the European gas supply system, the gas flows and the infrastructure capacity development up to the year 2030 are analyzed. In a sensitivity analysis, the impacts of demand variations on the choice of supply sources are studied. (author)

Ethane supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamerson, J.B.

1993-01-01

Estimates are given for ethane production, chiefly from the Gulf Coast area. Increase in interregional transfers are predicted. Comparisons from 1992 through 1995 are made. The author concludes the following: ethane will be supply limited over the decade of the 90's; values will be over competing feedstocks; minimum practical demands will be close to available supply; regional relationships will reflect pipeline tariffs; purity ethane/EP spreads may narrow with new Mt. Belvieu fractionation capacity; new domestic supplies will back out imports; and Ethane's share of ethylene production may drop over the period

How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willis, K.

2002-01-01

The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

Comparative life cycle assessment of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Henning; Hartmann, Kilian; Bühle, Lutz; Wachendorf, Michael

2015-03-01

The environmental performance of biogas plant configurations for a demand - oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation is comparatively assessed in this study. Those configurations indicate an increased energy demand to operate the operational enhancements compared to conventional biogas plants supplying biogas for baseload power generation. However, findings show that in contrast to an alternative supply of power generators with natural gas, biogas supplied on demand by adapted biogas plant configurations saves greenhouse gas emissions by 54-65 g CO(2-eq) MJ(-1) and primary energy by about 1.17 MJ MJ(-1). In this regard, configurations with flexible biogas production profit from reduced biogas storage requirements and achieve higher savings compared to configurations with continuous biogas production. Using thicker biogas storage sheeting material reduces the methane permeability of up to 6m(3) d(-1) which equals a reduction of 8% of the configuration's total methane emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

View of the LP gas supply/demand in Asia and a survey of the Middle East trend; Asia no LP gas jukyu tenbo to Chuto doko chosa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-09-01

A study was made on the LP gas supply/demand in Asia including an outlook for 2000. Eleven countries in Asia including NIES countries, ASEAN countries, China and India have been continuing their rapid growth of economy and have rapidly been increasing their energy consumption. There, LP gas spreads as a home use fuel, and countries excluding some LP gas producing countries depend considerably upon the import from the Middle East. The LP gas consumption quantity is steadily increasing in China and India having huge population, etc., and dependence of LP gas is increasing upon LP gas producing countries of the Middle East. Nevertheless, in the Middle East, the domestic consumption of LP gas, mostly butane, is increasing. Namely, butane is used as raw material of MTBE, and LP gas as that of petroleum chemicals. The Middle East has a lot of plant projects of a sizable size in the future, which predicts that LP gas export from LP gas producing countries of the Middle East is decreasing. 2 refs., 62 figs., 57 tabs.

Increased competition on the supply side of the Western European natural gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golombek, R.; Gjelsvik, E.; Rosendahl, K.E.

1998-01-01

This paper analyzes how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. The authors show--using a numerical model of the Western European natural gas market--that once the demand side of the market is liberalized, each gas-producing country has an incentive to break up its gas sellers. The model therefore suggests that there may be numerous producers in a liberalized natural gas market. Hence, in a liberalized market consumers will not be exploited by suppliers

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

2011-04-01

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

Energy supply and demand in California

Science.gov (United States)

Griffith, E. D.

1978-01-01

The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

The balance of uranium supply and demand to 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erkes, P.

1980-01-01

The subject is discussed under the following headings: lead times in the nuclear industry; short term flexibilities -impact on demand of changes in tails assay and effect on supply of changed operating characteristics; supply-demand balance (Uranium Institute methodology); installed nuclear capacity forecast; enrichment capacity forecast; uranium production projections; estimates of uranium supply and demand until 1990; the effect of stockpiling; recent influences on the supply and demand balance; the Harrisburg experience; the International Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE); the oil price spiral; conclusions. (U.K.)

Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

OpenAIRE

Browning, Martin

1999-01-01

In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Mark Hanley

The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

2003-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

What role for LNG in Europe? Outlook for supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valais, M.; Roze, J.

1992-01-01

The current development of natural gas in Europe reflects all the technical, economic, environmental or political factors that make it one of the best energy options for the future. However, the sustained expansion of its demand must cope with a decline in domestic production in most European countries, which is resulting in a sharp rise in imports. Furthermore, because of the large volumes required, traditional exporters by pipeline to European markets could progressively come up against limits in the growth of the amounts they can supply. LNG could thus play an increasing role in the European gas balance. Europe is geographically well situated in relation to potential LNG exporting countries. The abundance of the resources and the regional diversity of these countries will be an additional guarantee of the reliability of supplies. However, any new projects can be carried out only under economic conditions that are viable for the gas industry and compatible with the development of European markets

Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

2012-03-01

The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

Gas supply for independent power projects: Drilling programs and reserve acquisitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambert, J.D.; Walker, R.K.

1990-01-01

Developers of gas-fired independent power projects, although drawn to gas as the fuel of choice for economic and environmental reasons, are finding the problem of cost-effective gas supply to be intractable. By one estimate, there are $6 billion worth of gas-fired projects languishing in the planning stage for want of long-term gas supply that is acceptable to project lenders. Worse still, as the authors are aware, some currently operating gas-fired projects lack such a supply, thus forcing the developer to rely on the spot market for gas as an interim (and unsatisfactory) solution. Although spot market prices in the deregulated natural gas industry have remained relatively low over several years, long-term gas supply has become problematic, particularly for power projects whose economics typically require an assured supply at a determined price over a multiyear period. In short, while there is an increasing demand for gas as a preferred source of fuel supply for power projects, there are discontinuities in the approaches taken to contracting for that supply by producers and developers. These concern primarily allocation of the risk of commodity-driven price increases during the term of the fuel supply contract. Without a means of accommodating price-related risk, the parties will inevitably find themselves at an impasse in contract negotiations. If there is a barrier to the independent power generation industry's vertical integration into gas production, it is the fundamental insularity of the two industries. As they have discovered, it may be indispensable for gas producers and power developers to employ intermediaries familiar with both industries in order to consummate appropriate joint-venture drilling programs and reserve acquisitions. Given the economic consequences of doing so successfully, however, they believe such programs and acquisitions may become an integral part of independent power developers' business strategy in the 1990s and beyond

Japan's actual energy supply/demand in 1986 and background - drastically changing economic/energy situations upset plans and forecasts by a wide margin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujime, K

1987-05-01

In 1986 the value of the yen soared and there was a lowering of interest rates and a slump in crude oil prices. These drastic changes in economic/energy situations brought about a completely different picture of Japan's energy supply and demand from originally expected. Energy demand from large industrial users was lowered and impacts of price fluctuations on energy supply and demand were uneven. Topics covered in the paper are: economic/industrial trends; energy price trends; actual energy supply and demand including electricity, oil, town gas, coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas); trends of major energy-consuming industries and energy consumption including steel industry, paper/pulp industry, cement industry and petrochemical industry; plans/forecasts completely off the track due to drastically changing economic/energy situations.

Demand for Canadian gas in the U.S. market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larson, L.H.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Canadian natural gas exports to the United States commenced in 1957 and have now reached 1.3 Tcf per year. Natural gas consumption in the united States is currently 25% of the total energy consumption, which is expected t grow considerably by the year 2000. National security and environmental concerns will make natural gas an increasingly desirable fuel, and U.S. domestic gas reserves will be insufficient to supply the demand growth. Consequently, there is a growing opportunity for increased sales of Canadian natural gas to the united States provided economic, regulatory and political situations do not deprive U.S. consumers of the opportunity to utilize this source of the world's cleanest fuel

Forecasting world natural gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

2000-01-01

Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

Europe's gas consumption and imports to increase with adequate low cost supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, P.R.

1997-01-01

Gas in Europe has always been sold above its long-run supply price. Lower prices, however, still permit profitable indigeneous supply expansion. As further reductions in production and transport costs from technological advances are expected, this will continue based on the exploitation of large proven and probable reserves. By 2025, indigeneous output will be 60% up on 1995. Nevertheless, an average 2.2%/annum growth in gas demand will increase import dependence from 130 to 320 BCM over this period. Future international oil prices indicate gas-equivalent border values adequate to secure profitable supply from a range of external sources, leading to continuing competition for markets and the diversification of imports. (9 tables; 31 references). (author)

Application of Fiscal Incentives for Development of East Natuna Gas Field for Long-Term National Natural Gas Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marwan Batubara

2015-08-01

Full Text Available East Natuna gas field, which has proven reserves of 46 trillion cubic feet, is projected to meet long-term natural gas needs. However, CO2-content of the gas reserves reaches 71%, leading to expensive development costs. This research investigates the feasibility of the field based on several fiscal incentives. Firstly, gas supply-demand until year 2040 was analyzed. Then, based on the analysis, the field was developed using high CO2 gas separation technology to produce gas of 1300 MMSCFD in 2023, 2600 MMSCFD in 2031, and 3900 MMSCFD in 2039. Finally, the economic feasibility was assessed using cash flow analysis in accordance with Indonesia’s production sharing contract scheme. The results show that the supply-demand gap continues to increase and thus the development is urgently needed. The development cost is estimated around US$ 27.59 billion. The gas selling prices are assumed at US$ 8/MMBTU for wellhead, US$ 11/MMBTU for pipelines, and US$ 11/MMBTU for LNG. To achieve minimum IRR value of 12%, the government needs to offer incentives of 30-year contract period, profit sharing of 55%: 45%, first tranche petroleum to 10%, and tax holiday of 10 years. Toll fee for Natuna-Cirebon pipeline is US$ 2.3/MMBTU at IRR of 12.6%.

Gas-export potential will grow until domestic economies hike local demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.; Stram, B.

1993-01-01

Prospects appear good for near-term growth of exportable natural-gas supplies for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). These conclusions are a result of Enron Corp.'s recent investigations in the C.I.S. and other former Soviet republics. They are based on data obtained in cooperation with Vinigaz, the research arm of the Russian state gas concern Gazprom, and from various other research and consulting groups. These studies indicate that gas-export potential will grow as local demand for gas shrinks in the C.I.S. (as the energy needs of the individual republics decline during the period of economic transition) and while the C.I.S.-area countries continue to require foreign currency to help fund redevelopment and reduce debt. This concluding of two articles reviews the economic outlook for outside investment in the oil, gas, and gas-liquids infrastructure and the role of natural-gas supply and price in the development of domestic and export markets

Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

1992-12-01

Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-07-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-07-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs.

Natural gas industry optimistic for U.S. and Canadian supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2000-01-01

According to a survey conducted by the Ziff Energy Group, industry insiders are optimistic about natural gas supply and demand during 2000. The survey, which was designed to provide an integrated description of the North American gas industry from wellhead to burner tip, covered 124 companies across North America. Slightly more than half of the U.S. respondents expect to produce at least five per cent more natural gas in 2000 than the previous year, while 19 per cent of the respondents expect production increases to exceed 15 per cent. Among Canadian respondents, some 70 per cent expect production to increase five per cent; another 25 per cent anticipate increases in production to reach or exceed 15 per cent. Canadian natural gas export to the United States are expected to grow by up to 700 million cubic feet per day by almost 50 per cent of Canadian respondents; one third of the respondents expect exports to increase by 700 to 900 million cubic feet per day. Growth in U.S. demand for natural gas are predicted to be moderate in 2000, and increase somewhat in 2001. Canadian growth in sales is expected to be in the one-to-two per cent range. Few of the respondents expect gas prices to decline, and few are concerned that gas prices may put sales at risk. The majority of respondents believe that gas supply growth poses the greatest challenge to increasing pipeline capacity

A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, J.

2004-01-01

This paper presents the demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario. The paper examines the near term outlook, critical demand and supply issues, the projected Ontario demand/supply balances and finally concludes by looking at the challenges for Ontario's new market structure

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia-Pacific region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fridley, D.

1993-01-01

It is reported that years of strong economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters -Indonesia, China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010, over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil. 1 ref., 5 figs, 2 tabs

Vaccine supply, demand, and policy: a primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Muzumdar, Jagannath M; Cline, Richard R

2009-01-01

To provide an overview of supply and demand issues in the vaccine industry and the policy options that have been implemented to resolve these issues. Medline, Policy File, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts were searched to locate academic journal articles. Other sources reviewed included texts on the topics of vaccine history and policy, government agency reports, and reports from independent think tanks. Keywords included vaccines, immunizations, supply, demand, and policy. Search criteria were limited to English language and human studies. Articles pertaining to vaccine demand, supply, and public policy were selected and reviewed for inclusion. By the authors. Vaccines are biologic medications, therefore making their development and production more difficult and costly compared with "small-molecule" drugs. Research and development costs for vaccines can exceed $800 million, and development may require 10 years or more. Strict manufacturing regulations and facility upgrades add to these costs. Policy options to increase and stabilize the supply of vaccines include those aimed at increasing supply, such as government subsidies for basic vaccine research, liability protection for manufacturers, and fast-track approval for new vaccines. Options to increase vaccine demand include advance purchase commitments, government stockpiles, and government financing for select populations. High development costs and multiple barriers to entry have led to a decline in the number of vaccine manufacturers. Although a number of vaccine policies have met with mixed success in increasing the supply of and demand for vaccines, a variety of concerns remain, including developing vaccines for complex pathogens and increasing immunization rates with available vaccines. New policy innovations such as advance market commitments and Medicare Part D vaccine coverage have been implemented and may aid in resolving some of the problems in the vaccine industry.

Balancing supply and demand resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.

1990-01-01

This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models

Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1994-01-01

An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

Gas supply planning for new gas-fired electricity generation facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slocum, J.C.

1990-01-01

This paper explores several key issues in gas supply planning for new gas fired electric generation facilities. This paper will have two main sections, as follows: developing the gas supply plan for a gas-fired electricity generation facility and exploring key gas supply contract pricing issues

A strategic model of European gas supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

2005-01-01

Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. This paper proposes a model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behavior of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). In the case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages, which is the most realistic scenario, this yields a market outcome with double marginalization, that is suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up, at the expense of the final customers. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe remain dominant (Norway, the Netherlands), although some lose market shares (Algeria, UK, and especially Russia). Traditional exports will be complemented in the future by overseas supplies of LNG from the Middle East, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago which are becoming competitive. The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks; we find that transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient but the capacity constraint is binding for many intra-EU trade relations. (Author)

Case study of forecasting uranium supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noritake, Kazumitsu

1992-01-01

PNC collects and analyzes information about uranium market trend, world uranium supply and demand, and world uranium resources potential in order to establish the strategy of uranium exploration. This paper outlines the results obtained to forecast uranium supply and demand. Our forecast indicates that 8,500 tU, accounting for one-sixth of the demand in the year 2001, must be met by uranium produced by mines to be newly developed. After 2019, demand cannot be met by the 123 mines currently in operation or expected to have gone into production by this year. The projected shortage must therefore be covered by uranium to be newly discovered. To preclude this occurrence, uranium exploration will have to be steadily continued in order to ensure future new uranium resources, to alleviate anxiety about future supply, and to prevent sharp price hikes. (author)

The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

1993-01-01

The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so inter-related that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulfur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulfur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. The paper looks in greater detail at the supply and demand situation with respect to oil and natural gas, at regional oil import dependency and refining capacity. (10 figures). (author)

Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Graeme

2010-01-01

The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

Reconstruction of Low Pressure Gas Supply System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. N. Osipov

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The current reconstruction of residential areas in large cities especially with the developed heat-supply systems from thermal power stations and reduction of heat consumption for heating due to higher thermal resistance of building enclosing structures requires new technical solutions in respect of gas-supply problems. While making reconstruction of a gas-supply system of the modernized or new buildings in the operating zone of one gas-distribution plant it is necessary to change hot water-supply systems from gas direct-flow water heaters to centralized heat-supply and free gas volumes are to be used for other needs or gas-supply of new buildings with the current external gas distribution network.Selection of additional gas-line sections and points of gas-supply systems pertaining to new and reconstructed buildings for their connection to the current distribution system of gas-supply is to be executed in accordance with the presented methodology.

The outlook for North American supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppens, J.

1998-01-01

An overview of North American natural gas assets and operations is presented, along with an outlook for natural gas demand, supply, and prices. Future natural gas demand was considered in the light of 1997 natural gas consumption by the residential, commercial, industrial and utility sectors, and an attempt was made to provide answers to questions such as the reasonableness of projections 30 Tcf annual demand, and the availability of gas resources or gas infrastructure to sustain demand of this magnitude. According to projections by the Electric Industry Association, 65 per cent of gas demand growth is for electric power generation. Natural gas supply on a regional and continental basis was reviewed and the implications for production were assessed. The overall conclusion was that resource supply will not be the constraining factor since there is plenty of gas, and the demand is regionally dispersed. However, if the demand for power generation comes anywhere near the high consumption forecast of 100 to 150 GW, a huge amount of gas-fired power plants would have to be built. Expansion of this magnitude would not be inexpensive

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

2011-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Global sustainable timber supply and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

2010-01-01

Industrial timber use has provided timber revenue that has helped make timber supply and demand more sustainable in the leading timber producing regions of the world. Sustainable development implies not consuming more resources today than we can replace tomorrow, but sustainable forest management implies more than merely a non-declining supply of timber. Forests as a...

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, Page R

2005-11-10

Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

Science.gov (United States)

Sally. Duncan

1998-01-01

In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

Centrifuges help match supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crossley, P.S.

1980-01-01

Since the early 1970's the enrichment market situation has changed dramatically. Falling demands and increasing production capacity has resulted in over-capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium. New trends in the industry are considered by analysing the following issues: supply and demand; technical development; build-up plans; contracting policies; enrichment economics; and nuclear safeguards. (U.K.)

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-12-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs.

Principles concerning the progress of the gas demand side management in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leca, A.; Statie, E.; Nistoran, D.

1996-01-01

The consequences of the application of demand side management (DSM) and integrated resources planning (IRP) notions for natural gas are analysed. Present socio-economic context in Romania - from a geopolitical point of view - obviously highlights a set of difficult gas supply problems in our country related to: the impossibility of satisfying the consumption demand from internal resources; the necessity of ensuring by imports of an important quantity of gas, which entails an important foreign currency expenditure and possible political pressures which an unique supplier could exert; the requirement of alignment to the western European country legislation, at an institutional and economical practice level. Each of these problems related to the gas-based power production and all together impose the tackling of DSM and IRP requirements from a strategic point of view. Some conclusions and proposals are presented. (author) 1 fig., 4 refs

42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements. 84.149 Section 84.149 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTIVE DEVICES Supplied-Air Respirators § 84.149 Type C supplied-air respirator...

Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victor, D.G.

1990-01-01

Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Painter Page R

2005-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4. Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

Science.gov (United States)

Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching

The Law of Supply and Demand: Here It Is Finally

OpenAIRE

Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont

2014-01-01

There is no such thing as a law of human or social behavior. The conceptual consequence of the present paper is therefore to discard the subjectivebehavioral axioms and to take objective-structural axioms as new formal foundations. The central piece of economic theory is the interaction of demand and supply which determines prices and quantities. Demand and supply in turn are determined by subjective factors. In the structural axiomatic paradigm the Law of Supply and Demand follows from objec...

Storage and security of supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, B.R.

1990-01-01

The paper considers the relationship between energy security and the consumption, supply and storage of natural gas, as agreed between the IEA Member countries. Additional supplies of natural gas should be obtained from as diverse sources as possible with emphasis on indigenous OECD sources. Instruments for coping with supply disruptions, such as underground storage of gas, interruptible gas sales, and dual-fired capabilities should be strengthened. These instruments, however, in combination with contractual swing factors, are also used to cope with fluctuations in demand for natural gas. The future demand and supply of natural gas in OECD Europe and North America is discussed. In OECD Europe the growth in residential and commercial demand is expected to be sustained, and, in both OECD Europe and North America, there is a further potential demand for gas for electricity generation. As residential and commercial demand (which is very temperature-dependent) grows, the need for storage facilities, interruptible sales contracts, dual-fired capabilities and swing factors in contracts will increase in order to balance the load. An expansion of gas demand for baseload electricity generation could, however, increase the load factor. Figures for the size of the storage capacity in 1987 and plans for future increases show that storage capacity is increasing. It is concluded that new underground storage represents an important contribution to the strengthening of each country's ability both to balance loads and to deal with supply disruptions. The IEA countries rely on the gas utilities to provide storage and other instruments for both purposes. (author). 2 figs, 3 tabs

Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

1989-01-01

The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

Gas markets and security of supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibot, G.

1997-01-01

In the natural gas business, some European states and companies seem to be concerned by security of supply. Security of supply for a governmental organisation is discussed, to share the author's conception and experience. The targets of a security of supply policy and the measures that can be set are described. The possible changes in implementing this policy are considered, according to recent developments in the field of gas security. The specificity of European gas markets justify the concern in security of supply, as concluded the Commission and the IEA. The integration of national gas markets in Europe will give new opportunities for managing this security of supply. (R.P.)

High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Bernd; Nielsen, Steffen

2014-01-01

Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat...... demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS). The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat......, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings...

Intrinsic gas production kinetics of selected intermediates in anaerobic filters for demand-orientated energy supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Krümpel, Johannes Hagen; Illi, Lukas; Lemmer, Andreas

2018-03-01

As a consequence of a growing share of solar and wind power, recent research on biogas production highlighted a need for demand-orientated, flexible gas production to provide grid services and enable a decentralized stabilization of the electricity infrastructure. Two-staged anaerobic digestion is particularly suitable for shifting the methane production into times of higher demand due to the spatio-temporal separation of hydrolysis and methanogenesis. To provide a basis for predicting gas production in an anaerobic filter, kinetic parameters of gas production have been determined experimentally in this study. A new methodology is used, enabling their determination during continuous operation. An order in methane production rate could be established by comparing the half lives of methane production. The order was beginning with the fastest: acetic acid>ethanol>butyric acid>iso-butyric acid>valeric acid>propionic acid>1,2propanediol>lactic acid. However, the mixture of a natural hydrolysate from the acidification tank appeared to produce methane faster than all single components tested.

High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernd Möller

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS. The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings with individual supply, or in collective heating using renewable energy for heating the current building stock, can be based on improved data.

The United States rheumatology workforce: supply and demand, 2005-2025.

Science.gov (United States)

Deal, Chad L; Hooker, Roderick; Harrington, Timothy; Birnbaum, Neal; Hogan, Paul; Bouchery, Ellen; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Barr, Walter

2007-03-01

To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025. The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing

The challenge of implementing green gas into the gas supply

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekkering, Jan

2014-01-01

In order to gain a more mature share in the future energy supply, green gas supply chains face some interesting challenges. In this thesis green gas supply chains, based on codigestion of cow manure and maize, are considered. The produced biogas is upgraded to natural gas quality and injected into

Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1997-01-01

Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Intaher M. Ambe

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.

Selection of Alternatives for the Natural Gas Supply in Colombia using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Becerra Fernández

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Context: Colombia consumes natural gas in different sectors, especially in the ones that are residential and vehicular transport. Gas consumption serves as backup for power generation in situations of reduced hydroelectric capacity. Nowadays, gas reserve levels have been reduced and it is essential to ensure the uninterrupted supply of the resource. To achieve such objective, there are some alternatives which are difficult to implement at the same time, given the limited financial budget and implementation times that they demanded. In this way, several studies have advanced in the application of models to prioritize alternatives for both supplying power and reducing emissions in the generation, especially regarding the evaluation of energy sources and technology selection for supply. Method: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP based in the Delphi method to define preferences according to the experts judgment, was applied to evaluate the selection of alternatives supply of natural gas in Colombia, considering technical, environmental and social criteria, which is reliable and policy oriented to guarantee supply of resources in the country. Results: Once the model was applied, we evaluated the criteria and alternatives for infrastructure to support gas supply, finding that reliability is the most relevant criterion as well as alternative of building the ‘Regasification Pacific Plant’ followed by the construction of the ‘Buenaventura-Cali pipeline’ and the ‘Storage Plant in Bogotá'. Conclusions: As the results indicate, in Colombia efforts should be focus on imports of the resource through the construction of regasification plants and pipelines to facilitate transport inland to demand points. The latter may help decision makers facing various alternatives to ensure the supply of this resource, which is relevant to various economic sectors, including generation of electricity in the country. Language: Spanish

An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silberberg, R.B.

1981-08-01

The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

2012-01-01

In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

Supply-demand controls the futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, D.

1991-01-01

This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

The global food crisis : supply and demand revisited

OpenAIRE

Sammut, Vince

2015-01-01

This study aims to show that the volatility in food prices between 2008 and 2011 cannot be explained merely by the market fundamentals of demand and supply. While global changes in demand and supply are bringing about radical changes to the food equation, evidence shows that market failure in the world grain market aggravated the problem. Excess liquidity, brought about by monetary growth policies after the subprime crises and financial meltdown in 2008, has stimulated speculation and hoar...

Agricultural demands for natural gas and liquified petroleum gas in the USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uri, N.D.; Gill, M.

1992-01-01

This study endeavours to determine whether farmers adjust their consumption of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in response to changes in the unit price of energy. A demand model is specified and estimated. The conclusions suggest that the unit price of natural gas (liquefied petroleum gas) is a factor impacting the quantity of natural gas (liquefied petroleum gas) demanded by farmers, but there is no indication that other types of energy are substitutes for natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. Additionally, the number of acres irrigated is an important factor driving the demand for natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. Finally, the estimated models of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas demand were structurally stable over the period 1971-1989. (author)

Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

Science.gov (United States)

Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

2017-03-01

A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

46 CFR 197.340 - Breathing gas supply.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Breathing gas supply. 197.340 Section 197.340 Shipping... GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Equipment § 197.340 Breathing gas supply. (a) A primary breathing gas supply for surface-supplied diving must be sufficient to support the following for the...

CRISP. Market-oriented online supply-demand matching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamphuis, I.G.; Kester, J.C.P.; Carlsson, P; Akkermans, H.

2004-04-01

Current power distribution systems are operated in a top-down manner. Power production control and price formation take place on a central level on the basis of relatively static data from a data collection and dispatching network with a limited scope and granularity. When incorporating a more considerable fraction of small-scale producers on the basis of, for instance, renewable energy, operation of the distribution grid requires more data to be collected from a more extensive information and data communication network. Furthermore, increased local flows, in the form of two-way communication with distributed computation techniques, enable a more dynamic adaptation in power supply and demand patterns paving the way to a flexible way of embedding of ill-predictable supply of some types of renewable energy sources. DSM-programs have been in use in the utility sector for years now. In this document, first, current Demand Side Management (DSM) and Demand Response Resource (DRR) techniques are discussed; then, supply side management especially in a DG (Distributed Generation) context is treated. A framework of novel concepts and possible technology directions is presented subsequently and some preliminary scenarios are shown to illustrate these concepts. An overview of more flexible supply and demand matching schemes is given essentially based on four distinct types of SDM clusters. It appears, that it is possible to fulfil requirements for these distributed environments in terms of needed information and communication technology, ICT, if these are paralleled with the expected future penetration of ever-smaller scale data-exchange networks at power customer sites. Agent technology using algorithms from micro-economic market theory offers a promising possibility for managing the complexity of price formation and supply demand matching in these fine-grained bottom-up control distribution networks. Implication of these technical developments in terms of market and business

The impact of northern gas on North American gas infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Letwin, S.

2004-01-01

The three business units that Enbridge operates are crude oil pipelines; natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation; and gas transmission and distribution. The need for more infrastructure will increase as the demand for natural gas increases. This presentation outlined the issues that surround and sometimes impede infrastructure development. It also emphasized the need for northern gas supply at a time when conventional natural gas supplies are decreasing and demand is growing. Additional LNG supply is required along with new supply from Alaska, Mackenzie Delta and the east coast. The issue of a secure source of supply was discussed along with northern gas expectations. It is expected that Mackenzie Delta gas (1.2 bcf/day) will be available by 2008 to 2010 and Alaska North Slope gas (4 bcf/day) will be available from 2012 to 2014. Gas demand by industrial, residential, commercial and power generation sectors across North America was illustrated. The challenge lies in creating infrastructure to move the supply to where it is most in demand. General infrastructure issues were reviewed, such as prices, regulatory streamlining, lead times, stakeholder issues and supporting infrastructure. 19 figs

Gas prices in the UK: markets and insecurity supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, P.

2006-01-01

In this article, Professor P. Wright argues that the high and volatile gas price experienced by UK consumers over the last 3 years are the result of the extend of liberalization in the UK - which has made UK prices much more sensitive to insecurities of supply. Businesses pay the cost of this, straightaway, while the strategies which gas companies have used to respond to heightened price risks means domestic consumers also bear the cost of higher supply-markups. The prospect of high levels of demand in bad winters then just adds to price risk and its associated costs. The implication of this analysis is that it is illogical for the UK's regulator and government to blame the UK's high prices on the slow progress of liberalization in the rest of Europe - greater liberalization in Europe might simply replicate the UK's price difficulties throughout Europe

Wood fiber supply and demand in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth E. Skog; Peter J. Ince; Richard W. Haynes

1998-01-01

The USDA Forest Service is preparing a national assessment of supply and demand for wood fiber resources in the United States. Based in part on preliminary results of this assessment and partly on our 1993 Assessment, this paper outlines trends and gives an outlook for demand and trade for timber and fiber products, changes in technology, and wood fiber resource supply...

Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

North American natural gas supply dynamics: A focus on U.S. supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, R.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses US natural gas supply dynamics in the context of the North American gas marketplace. Supply fundamentals are examined, methodology is briefly presented, regional supply outlooks are discussed. Assumptions, drivers and issues are highlighted. The analysis and outlook indicate that the sizeable North American resource base can be economically developed to supply growing US natural gas requirements. The major incremental supply sources are likely to come from deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountain regions, onshore Texas and imports from Canada. Given this outlook, major business and investment opportunities exist for the gas upstream and midstream sectors despite some short-term challenges

Gas assessment and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrier, Jerome; Bouchard, Georges; Al-Saffar, Ali; ); Bros, Thierry; Khayat, Armand; Leger, Sebastien; Nyouki, Evariste; Jamme, Dominique; Remont, Sophie; Delamare, Monique; Hureau, Geoffroy; Poillion, Christophe; Noilhan, Fabrice; Lafon, Madeleine; Lagumina, Sandra

2015-01-01

This document reports the content of contributions and debates of the 'Gas assessment and perspectives' convention organised by the AFG (the French Gas Association) in March 2015. After an introduction speech, a contributor proposed a comment of the 'World energy outlook 2014' (discussion of factors related to demand and to supply, pressures related to climate change). A round table discussed the context and overview of the gas market, and more precisely addressed the evolution of the gas European market on the short term (demand, storage, production, imports, LNG market), the gas demand for electricity production (the electricity European market, impact on gas, European perspectives, the gas market, three scenarios of evolution of gas demand, World perspectives), the European gas demand on the medium term (the control of gas price in Europe, the final decline of gas, the assessment of the European energy policy, the divorce between Russia and Europe), the recent trends and perspectives for the LNG market (price evolution, a still comfortable market, LNG back in Europe, demand and supply, LNG in the global energy mix), and an assessment of the French gas market by the CRE (the French Commission on Energy Regulation). A second round table addressed the security of gas supply: status and perspectives for the European gas supply, stress tests and measures on the short term to improve supply security, role of the State in the security of gas supply, storage as a key tool for the security of supply, development of new policy for security of supplies. The last speech stated the point of view of a GrDF manager

Interim report by a Committee on Demands and Supplies of Electric Enterprise Council

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-01-01

An interim report by a committee on demands and supplies, Electric Enterprise Council, was given for the period up to the year 2000. The demands of electric power in Japan were set as 658,000 million kWh for 1990 and 768,000 million kWh for 1995. The electric power enterprises appear to be at a major turning point at present, that is, the growth in the demands tended to slow down. The features of the situation are then the stabilized supply, supply cost reduction, reasonable power source constitution, etc. The following things are described. Background and policy; power demand outlook and supply measures; power supply and supply efficiency (the composition of power sources, respective power sources with supply targets and problems, etc.); power demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luchansky, Matthew S.; Monks, James

2009-01-01

The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luchansky, Matthew S. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign49 Roger Adams Lab, 81-5600 S. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Monks, James [Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173 (United States)

2009-05-15

The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

Safety stock placement in supply chains with demand forecast updates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youssef Boulaksil

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Supply chains are exposed to many types of risks and it may not be obvious where to keep safety stocks in the supply chain to hedge against those risks, while maintaining a high customer service level. In this paper, we develop an approach to determine the safety stock levels in supply chain systems that face demand uncertainty. We model customer demand following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE. An extensive body of literature discusses the safety stock placement problem in supply chains, but most studies assume independent and identically distributed demand. Our approach is based on a simulation study in which mathematical models are solved in a rolling horizon setting. It allows determining the safety stock levels at each stage of the supply chain. Based on a numerical study, we find that a big portion of the safety stocks should be placed downstream in the supply chain to achieve a high customer service level.

Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan

2016-01-01

Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.

Future supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grover, L.K.

1991-01-01

A literature survey has been conducted to assess the future world supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel in an underground disposal vault at a Used-Fuel Disposal Centre. The Centre is assumed to begin operation by the year 2020 and continue for about 40 years. The survey has shown that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead, the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence supply and demand are discussed

A policy study on energy supply and demand of several countries (China, Indonesia, Mexico)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Byung Ryeal [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-03-01

Korea is depending 97% of primary energy consumption on imports. To have a stable supply of energy required for a continuous growth, it is recommended to utilize international energy market actively for short-term while it is required to reinforce resources diplomacy with other countries with full of resources for mid- and long-term. This study reviewed energy supply and demand and major policies of China, Indonesia and Mexico, which give direct or indirect influence on energy supply and demand of Korea. With the geographical adjacency, Korea imports coal from China and exports petroleum products to China. Furthermore, it is very likely to have a trade related to nuclear power plant and natural gas. Indonesia exports coal, crude oil, and LNG to Korea. Especially LNG is occupied 60% of total amount of imports. It is expected to get help from Mexico because there are many similar aspects between Mexico and Korea such as GNP or a conservative idea on energy industry. (author). 49 refs., 6 figs., 42 tabs.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

2011-01-01

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

2011-11-15

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

2012-01-01

Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

U.S. gas supply overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, R.

1999-01-01

The most recent outlook by Purvin and Gertz regarding the long-term supply potential of oil and gas producing basins in the United States was presented. The role that technology will play in extending their economic reach was also discussed. The focus of this paper was on regional supply, inter regional gas flows and related issues such as pricing. A series of maps depicting production (in Tcf) of various basins in North America showed that the important supply sources are in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountains, onshore Texas and Canada. Natural gas pricing from 1990 to 2020 has been forecasted to steadily increase. 1 tab., 11 figs

Kalimantan field development hikes gas supply for LNG export

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suharmoko, G.R.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the development of Tambora and Tunu gas fields in Kalimantan that have increased available gas supply for the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Indonesia. The demand for LNG is increasing in the energy thirsty Far East market. And Indonesia, the world's largest exporter, is keeping pace by expanding the Bontang liquefaction plant in East Kalimantan. A fifth train, with a capacity of around 2.5 million tons/year, began operating in January 1990. Start-up of a sixth train, of identical capacity, is planned for January 1994. The Bontang plant is operated by PT Badak on behalf of Pertamina, the Indonesian state oil and gas mining company. The feed to the fifth train comes primarily from the first-phase development of Total Indonesie's two gas fields, Tambora and Tunu. The sixth train will be fed by a second-phase development of the Tunu field

Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

2016-05-01

This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Assessment of demand and supply of timber products in Benue ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examines demand and supply of timber products in Benue State Nigeria with a view to highlighting the responsiveness of forest policy implementation. The scope of the study lies on plantation establishment targets and costs for 1999 to 2003, actual plantation establishment, timber supply and demand from ...

The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

2011-11-15

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2015 edition + executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

France's new energy transition law for green growth takes effect in 2015, and it will support RTE in its task of assessing and analysing security of electricity supply. Indeed, RTE is required by law to periodically publish Generation Adequacy Reports on the balance between electricity supply and demand. This year's report will be used in security of supply analyses conducted as part of the planning of the next multi-annual energy program. Another highlight of 2015 is the operational implementation of the capacity mechanism. Electricity suppliers now have to contribute to security of supply in proportion to their customers' consumption via a new obligation-based system. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report was prepared within this context. The supply-demand balance outlook is considerably better over the entire medium-term horizon than in the 2014 Generation Adequacy Report. This is a result of generators' recent decisions to keep oil-fired and combined-cycle gas plants in the market. Included in the possible courses of action RTE identified in its previous Generation Adequacy Report, these decisions were taken just as the capacity mechanism was being implemented operationally. A downward revision of demand assumptions has also improved the security of supply outlook. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report paints a much more favourable picture of the supply-demand balance over the next five years than the previous edition. Significant margins are foreseen during the next two winters. This year's Generation Adequacy Report also includes detailed assumptions about the evolution of the European mix, which will play an increasingly important role in guaranteeing security of supply in France. Indeed, interconnections will help reduce the shortfall risk by 8 to 10 GW over the next five winters. Lastly, a new chapter about flexibility requirements and the variability of residual demand associated with the growing share of renewable generation in the

Long term Gas Supply Security in an Enlarged Europe. Final Report ENGAGED Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Oostvoorn, F.; Likachev, V.; Morgan, T.

2004-12-01

The title project concerned a study on the long-term gas supply security in Europe with a focus on the developments, risks and policies in the candidate countries in Eastern Europe. For that reason the report not only includes a European and EU-30 wide scenario analysis but also chapters on specific topics. One study (a chapter in this report) concerns the gas market and regulation developments in a number of relevant candidate countries. Another chapter presents a Russian vision on gas demand, production and supplies from Russia and also includes a paragraph on the supplies from other neighbours and the transit issues in the Ukraine. Finally, the report contains a chapter discussing the required network infrastructure for bringing the gas from external gas suppliers to the EU-30 markets. Hereby it analysis and tests the network flexibility to cope with some unlikely and unexpected supply interruptions in main pipelines to EU markets. The background information of the studies underlying the chapters can be partly found in the annexes and in the individual task reports. During the project the results of the study were discussed at several seminars in candidate countries and particularly on the final seminar in Prague, in June 2003, with different and important stakeholders and market actors

Supply disruptions and regional price effects in a spatial oligopoly. An application to the global gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Growitsch, Christian; Hecking, Harald; Panke, Timo

2013-01-01

Supply shocks in the global gas market may affect countries differently, as the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply-side concentration may expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries with regard to gas supplies, we disentangle import price components into increasing and decreasing factors. Due to the complexity of the interrelations in the global gas market, we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of LNG ows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us to account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply. We find that Japan faces the most severe price increases, as the Japanese gas demand completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries such as the UK benefit from good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and domestic pricetaking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as in the exercise of market power.

Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahouli, Sondes

2011-01-01

In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahouli, Sondes, E-mail: sondes.kahouli@univ-nantes.f [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes-I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre-B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

2011-01-15

In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

Re-examining uranium supply and demand. New insights

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kahouli, Sondes [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes - I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre - B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

2011-01-15

In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular, the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

A Policy study on stabilization of heating oil supply and demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Bok Jae [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-03-01

As a principal heating fuel for household and commercial sector, and a heat source fuel for industry, the heating oil shows its great demand intensively during a specific period (wintertime) due to its characteristics. It represents that the fluctuation of heating oil demand throughout the year is very extreme. Therefore, the stable supply of heating oil has been rising as an important task. It is desirable to develop and supply a new type of heating oil compounded of kerosene and gasoline with appropriate ratio for short- and mid-term to have a stable supply and demand of heating oil. For long-term prospect, it is desirable to supply petroleum products mixing gasoline and B-C oil as heating oil when it is equipped with combustion technology of boiler and distribution system. In this case, it is required to have investment on infrastructure for the supply of new heating oil (mixture of gasoline and B-C oil) and a proper preparatory period for the conversion of equipment (such as a boiler). The vitalization of storing oil is essential to stabilize the supply and demand of heating oil. In order to vitalize it, the price of heating oil should be determined by a market function reflecting the seasonal supply and demand circumstances. (author). 101 refs., 5 figs., 83 tabs.

Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

2006-01-01

This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This publication provides information on the interstate pipeline companies' supply of natural gas in the United States during calendar year 1990, for use by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for regulatory purposes. It also provides information to other Government agencies, the natural gas industry, as well as policy makers, analysts, and consumers interested in current levels of interstate supplies of natural gas and trends over recent years

Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-03-01

Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-03-15

Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

The global nuclear fuel market - supply and demand 1995-2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keese, H.; Kidd, S.

1996-01-01

The findings and main conclusions of the 1996 supply and demand report of the Uranium Institute are summarised. The previous report was published in June 1994. In 1994 and 1995, world uranium production remained at a relatively depressed level, accounting for just over half reactor requirements only. Since mid 1995, however, some increase in production has occurred alongside rises in uranium spot market prices. This may indicate that supply is becoming tighter and indicate the end of the perception that supply availability is unlimited. Answers are attempted to the questions about the future which arise from this development. Nuclear power is first set in the context of the market for energy and for electricity in particular. The report then identifies key issues for the longer term future for nuclear power and considers various aspects of nuclear fuel supply and demand over the next 20 years. Three demand scenarios are explored. Even in the lower requirements case, the overall conclusion is that supply will only meet demand from 2002 onwards when all the projected new mine capacity is in place. Adequate supply is heavily dependent on other supply sources in the higher case scenarios. The market will need the entry of blended down high enriched uranium from dismantled weapons and an increased contribution from the reprocessing of spent fuel. Additional primary production is only likely if financial incentives are available and the regulatory framework permits. Finally, there is the possibility of re-enriching depleted uranium. (9 figures). (UK)

Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

Science.gov (United States)

Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

1993-01-01

This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

Supply prospects and network integration in the European natural gas sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergmann, B.

1998-01-01

At least for the next 10-15 years, natural gas will be the fastest growing energy form in Europe, with a higher rate of growth in consumption (from a lower base) in central Europe than in western Europe. Although most of the prospective demand until 2010 is covered by signed import contracts and indigenous production, important additional gas supply capacity still has to be developed out of a plenitude of reserves within and (in the long run primarily) outside western and central Europe. The real problem is how to mobilise the reserves economically and direct them towards the European market, in competition with other markets. Europe has a sophisticated transmission system whose development has gone hand-in-hand with long-term import agreements. Among the missing links is the Interconnector, which, at the end of 1998, is due to integrate the UK and Ireland into mainland Europe. This is expected to enhance security of supply in both areas, to balance prices and maybe also to foster ideas of liberalisation. Overall, the European gas industry is in an excellent position to develop the supply of gas in an environmentally benign way. The future belongs all the more to natural gas, the fewer the mistakes that are made when it comes to matters of legal frameworks and taxation

Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

OpenAIRE

Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

2009-01-01

This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more effi...

Conference Proceedings: The Quest for gas: tapping additional supplies for a growing market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

The two-day conference attracted 375 attendees from 19 U.S. states, 10 Canadian provinces and territories and several delegates from Europe. The conference reviewed the supply picture in Western Canada and the U.S., the market outlook with special reference to the robust electricity and industrial market, the outlook on gas prices and how the recent high prices impact on gas producers, royalty owners, industrial process users, the expansion of frontier gas, and competing sources of electrical generation, mainly existing coal and nuclear plants. The focus of the discussions centered on the so-called '30 Tcf vision' the recent National Petroleum Council Study in the United States. Further integration of the US and Canadian gas industry, primarily in the area of gas supply, was predicted. Evidence for this integration is the tremendous expansion of the role of frontier gas supplies from the Gulf of Mexico, LNG and coal seam gas in the USA and from the Scotian Shelf, the Liard Valley, north of the sixtieth parallel, Alaska's North Slope and Canada's Mackenzie Delta, to meet North American market demand. A resurgence in the role of large companies was also predicted, displacing the variety of independents, large and small, that have sprung up during the past decade

Full speed ahead on the Western Canada gas supply treadmill

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flint, D.; Dixon, B.

2005-01-01

The sustainability of natural gas supply in Western Canada was discussed and a background of the Forward Energy Group Inc., was provided, including details of goals, investments and assets. Various challenges to sustainable supply were outlined, including details of total production, competing processes of decline and growth, rate additions from new wells and the fact that since 1989, wells onstream produce 80 per cent of all natural gas. Annual challenges include production and decline rates, as well as additional declines in base volumes of pre-1990 wells. Various industry responses were presented. Rate additions have responded to prices, cash flow, acquisition and capital markets. Growth has been punctuated by low investment. A composite decline was presented, revealing that the decline rate of all wells onstream were increasing. In addition, production gaps grow larger due to the increase of composite decline rates. It was noted that composite decline rates may stabilize. Other factors contributing to decline rates were reserves-based contracts, the absence of pipeline capacity and storage, as well as recession. Rate losses and rate additions were presented. Solution to address these challenges include low deliverability zones, new pools, new areas, tight gas, and technology. It was noted that all activity growth is from low deliverability wells. Rate additions by deliverability class, discovery period, and fracturing were provided. In addition, rate additions per foot drilled were also discussed. Various drivers of the Western Canada Sedimentary (WCSB) rate additions include world gas demand; North American gas supply; capital investment in WCSB; WCSB projects and competition; and capital efficiency. A chart of gas cash flow and investment was presented, as well as a forecast of increasing costs. It was concluded that the WCSB is an important supply source for North America and that the key challenge is to sustain production profitably. Higher prices and

Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

time-series analysis of nigeria rice supply and demand: error ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

O. Ojogho Ph.D

the two series have been changing which may continue for longer time than foreseen {Figure (1c)}. Figure (c) shows a forecast of rice supply and demand for Nigeria. It shows that beyond 2010, rice supply will permanently lead rice demand. This indicates that they either have time-varying means, time-varying variances or ...

The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Youngho

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

Economic and energy supply and demand outlook towards FY 2014 of Japan. Japan was in a crucial moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yanagisawa, Akira; Yoshioka, Takayuki; Suzuki, Hidenori; Choi, Jongwon; Ikarii, Ryohei; Iwata, Sohei; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Ito, Kokichi

2014-01-01

This outlook showed prospects of economy and energy supply and demand (S and D) towards FY2014 of Japan taking account of Japanese economy recovery thanks to 'Abenomics', unclear power S and D balance, restarts of NPPs and increase in renewables dominated by solar PV. Impacts of restart of NPPs were so great and hoped prompt procedures after finishing the highest-level safety assessment. Fast expansion of renewables generating 7% of power generation and their increased burden on consumers (Feed-In-Tariff) required system improvements for adequate and sustainable introduction of renewables. Impacts of removing customs by the TPP increased energy demand due to the economic expansion by 0.9%. Primary energy supply turned to increase due to the expansion of the economic activities while electricity savings and energy conservation exerted downward pressure on demand. As for Macro economy, GDP growth slowed due to retroaction decrease by the last-minute demand of tax raise. Energy consumption decreased in two years due to slowing recovery and both natural gas and coal consumption hit new high. Steady growth of city gas, slight increase of electricity and sharp drop of fuel oil would be for energy sales. CO 2 emissions decreased in FY2014 after hit the historical high in FY2013. (T. Tanaka)

A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Bernd

The expansion of district heating, the assessment of the impact of heat supply strategies, as well as the analysis of significant heat demand savings require sound decision support at high detail. Data is needed to continuously quantify potentials and costs of measures in the end-use and supply...... heat demand and possible savings. The location of each building relative to heat supply technologies is mapped and used for the assessment of supply strategies by potentials, costs and environmental impact. Both elements can furthermore be used to balance investments in supply with investments...

Forecast demand and supply of energy in the short period. Its forecast and sensitivity analysis until the 2004 fiscal year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamashita, Yukari; Suehiro, Shigeru; Yanagisawa, Akira; Imaeda, Toshiya; Komiyama, Ryouichi

2004-01-01

The object of this report is forecast demand and supply of energy in the 2003 and 2004 fiscal year, which correspond to a business recovery period. A macroeconomics model and an energy supply model are calculated by changing actual GNP, crude oil rate and the rerunning period of nuclear power plants. The calculation results are compared with the reference case. In the first chapter, forecast Japanese economy until the 2004 fiscal year is explained. In the second chapter, the results of energy demand and supply in the first chapter are investigated by the home supply and consumption of primary energy (the reference case) and each energy resources. The sensitivity analytical results of actual GNP, consumer price index, home supply of the primary energy, energy expenditure, sales account of electric power, city gas and fuel by five cases such as reference, increase and decrease of oil cost and increase and decrease of economic growth are investigated. The effects of fast rerunning period of nuclear power plant and atmosphere temperature on these above demands of energies are indicated in the third chapter. (S.Y.)

Uganda Coffee Supply Response and Export Demand: An ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Econometric methods were used to estimate the supply and demand functions for Uganda's coffee using time series data for the period 1971-91. Eight major importing countries for Uganda's coffee: U.S., U.K., Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands were considered in export demand analysis.

Gas prices in the UK: markets and insecurity of supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, P.

2006-01-01

In this article Professor Philip Wright argues that the high and volatile gas prices experienced by UK consumers over the last 3 years are the result of the extent of liberalization in the UK which has made UK prices much more sensitive to insecurities of supply. Businesses pay the cost of this, straightaway, while the strategies which gas companies have used to respond to heightened price risks means domestic consumers also bear the cost of higher supply-markups. The prospect of high levels of demand in bad winters then just adds to price risk and its associated costs. The implication of this analysis is that it is illogical for the UK's regulator and government to blame the UK's high prices on the slow progress of liberalization in the rest of Europe - greater liberalization in Europe might simply replicate the UK's price difficulties throughout Europe. (author)

Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J.; Bird, L.

2007-10-01

In recent years, the demand for renewable electricity has accelerated as a consequence of state and federal policies and the growth of voluntary green power purchase markets, along with the generally improving economics of renewable energy development. This paper reports on a preliminary examination of the supply and demand balance for renewable electricity in the United States, with a focus on renewable energy projects that meet the generally accepted definition of "new" for voluntary market purposes, i.e., projects installed on or after January 1, 1997. After estimating current supply and demand, this paper presents projections of the supply and demand balance out to 2010 and describe a number of key market uncertainties.

The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdi, A M; Seaquist, J; Tenenbaum, D E; Eklundh, L; Ardö, J

2014-01-01

Net primary production (NPP) is the principal source of energy for ecosystems and, by extension, human populations that depend on them. The relationship between the supply and demand of NPP is important for the assessment of socio-ecological vulnerability. We present an analysis of the supply and demand of NPP in the Sahel using NPP estimates from the MODIS sensor and agri-environmental data from FAOSTAT. This synergistic approach allows for a spatially explicit estimation of human impact on ecosystems. We estimated the annual amount of NPP required to derive food, fuel and feed between 2000 and 2010 for 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. When comparing annual estimates of supply and demand of NPP, we found that demand increased from 0.44 PgC to 1.13 PgC, representing 19% and 41%, respectively, of available supply due to a 31% increase in the human population between 2000 and 2010. The demand for NPP has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.2% but NPP supply was near-constant with an inter-annual variability of approximately 1.7%. Overall, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) increases in the NPP of cropland (+6.0%), woodland (+6.1%) and grassland/savanna (+9.4%), and a decrease in the NPP of forests (−0.7%). On the demand side, the largest increase was for food (20.4%) followed by feed (16.7%) and fuel (5.5%). The supply-demand balance of NPP is a potentially important tool from the standpoint of sustainable development, and as an indicator of stresses on the environment stemming from increased consumption of biomass. (letter)

Robust Optimization on Regional WCO-for-Biodiesel Supply Chain under Supply and Demand Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to design a robust waste cooking oil- (WCO- for-biodiesel supply chain under WCO supply and price as well as biodiesel demand and price uncertainties, so as to improve biorefineries’ ability to cope with the poor environment. A regional supply chain is firstly introduced based on the biggest WCO-for-biodiesel company in Changzhou, Jiangsu province, and it comprises three components: WCO supplier, biorefinery, and demand zone. And then a robust mixed integer linear model with multiple objectives (economic, environmental, and social objectives is proposed for both biorefinery location and transportation plans. After that, a heuristic algorithm based on genetic algorithm is proposed to solve this model. Finally, the 27 cities in Yangtze River delta are adopted to verify the proposed models and methods, and the sustainability and robustness of biodiesel supply are discussed.

Electricity demand and supply to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertel, E.

1991-01-01

This paper will attempt to make projections of energy and electricity demand, and the possible share of nuclear generation in global supply, up to 2020. This horizon has been chosen because the long lead times prevailing in the energy sector imply long-term planning, even though the degree of uncertainty is quite large when looking several decades ahead. Electricity demand, as well as primary energy consumption, depends on many technical and economic factors, obviously including demography. Using statistical data for past decades, it is possible to quantify by econometric methods and the links between energy and electricity consumption and economic parameters. The models defined may then be used to make projections of future electricity consumption. The share of nuclear electricity in primary energy supply can be estimated by taking into account the various constraints and lead times limiting the deployment of nuclear generating capacity, and the shares of other energy sources in electricity generation in each country or region. It should be emphasized that the scenarios presented below are illustrative, and are not forecasts of future energy and electricity demand. Because of the method adopted and the assumptions made, the scenarios reflect a 'conventional wisdom'. However, they do incorporate concerns for environmental protection and improvements regarding energy efficiency. (author)

Choice evaluation of power supply composition using the mapping method of the long-term energy demand-and-supply scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatematsu, Kenji

2013-03-01

Long-term energy demand-and-supply were analyzed for our country using the MARKAL model, supposing six kinds of energy demand-and-supply scenarios where different installed capacity of nuclear power generation and the emission standard of carbon-dioxide were employed. It was shown that even when nuclear power generation was not used, the carbon-dioxide emissions in the whole country and a power generation sector are reducible by 37% and 47% in 2050 from the 1990 level, respectively. However, when nuclear power generation was phase-out and renewable energy and natural gas were substituted, it was found that an average power generating cost was higher than the case where use of nuclear or coal was continued, 3.7 yen/kWh or more. Moreover, in the case where immediate cessation of the nuclear power generation was carried out, it was also shown that a current average power generating cost rose by 4.4 yen/kWh. In order to evaluate and visualize the influence of power supply composition change on both the average power generating cost and the carbon-dioxide emissions, a new mapping method was proposed where diversity of an energy source, the carbon-dioxide emissions, and the average power generating cost were used as indexes. Based on the result of model analysis, when nuclear power generation was substituted with renewable energy, natural gas, or coal, oligopoly of an energy source was shown to increase sharply by abolition of nuclear power generation. These results showed that by continuing use of the nuclear power generation with a fixed scale, less carbon-dioxide emissions, avoiding oligopolization of an energy source and suppressing the steep rise of an average power generating cost were possible. (author)

Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Camilo Paz

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

Gas engine driven freon-free heat supply system complying with multiple fuels (eco-energy city project)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yagyu, Sumio; Maekawa, Koich; Sugawara, Koich; Hayashida, Masaru; Fujishima, Ichiro; Fukuyama, Yuji; Morikawa, Tomoyuki; Yamato, Tadao; Obata, Norio [Advanced Technology Lab., Kubota Corp., Amagasaki, Hyogo (Japan)

1999-07-01

This paper describes recent results at Kubota to develop a gas engine driven freon-free heat supply system. Utilizing a gas mixture which consists of CO and H{sub 2} supplied from a broad area energy utilization network, the system produces four heat sources (263 K, 280 K, 318 K, and 353 K) for air-conditioning, hot water supply, and refrigeration in a single system. It also conforms to fuel systems that utilize methane and hydrogen. This multi-functional heat supply system is composed of an efficient gas engine (methanol gas engine) and a freon-free heat pump (heat-assisted Stirling heat pump). The heat-assisted Stirling heat pump is mainly driven by engine shaft power and is partially assisted by thermal power provided by engine exhaust heat. By proportioning the two energy sources to match the characteristics of the driving engine, the heat pump is supplied with the maximum share of the original energy fueling the engine. Developing the system will establish freon-free thermal utilization system technology that satisfies both wide heat demands and various fuel systems. (orig.)

Natural Gas Exploration and Supply in India and the Prospects of a Bangladesh-to-India Pipeline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rashid, Mamunur [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan)

2009-07-01

Energy consumption in India is growing very rapidly. India.s own existing as well as any new discoveries of natural gas revenues may meet only a fraction of its growing demand for energy. Hence, it will become more dependent on the global market for the supply of gas. But it is always difficult for different nations to reach a bilateral agreement on joint projects such as gas pipelines. India has been importing natural gas mostly in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). But for the last two decades, it has shown an increasing interest in importing gas from international market by a pipeline. For example, it has planned to import natural gas from Iran, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Turkmenistan via a pipeline. But India.s best option is to purchase gas from its neighbor Bangladesh via a pipeline. Union Oil of California (Unocal), a large investor in Bangladeshi gas, has proposed to build a pipeline, to sell the gas from its Bibiyana field. A Bangladesh-India pipeline potentially offers several socio-economic benefits. But the project, however, so far has made a little progress. Political issues attached to the project. If the Bangladeshi pipeline plan fails, India will turn other alternative options to meet its gas demand. India already has entered into agreement with International consortiums for LNG purchase. Furthermore, the country is also keen on increasing its effort to develop non-conventional sources in the near future. If these alternatives become viable, India.s demand for and dependence on foreign natural gas will decrease and natural gas (of Bangladesh, for example) might lose some of its value. Keywords: Natural gas exploration and supply in India and Bangladesh, Bangladesh-to-India pipeline, Unocal, natural gas import, market, politics, LNG, non-conventional hydrocarbon sources.

An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. Materials and Methods A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Results Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. Conclusions This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions. PMID:29124238

Mastering demand and supply uncertainty with combined product and process configuration

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Verwaart, D.

2010-01-01

The key challenge for mastering high uncertainty of both demand and supply is to attune products and business processes in the entire supply chain continuously to customer requirements. Product configurators have proven to be powerful tools for managing demand uncertainty. This paper assesses how

Estimating demand and supply of edible oil in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Haq, Rashida

1991-01-01

This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of edible oil is highly affected by urbanization, increase in per capita income, relative high price of its substitutes and the rapid growth of the population. In order to estimate supply response model ...

Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

2016-11-01

Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

Gas-on-gas competition in Shanghai

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manuhutu, Chassty; Owen, Anthony D.

2010-01-01

In common with other major economic centres in China, Shanghai's energy consumption has been increasing rapidly to support the high growth rate of its economy. To achieve rational, efficient and clean use of energy, together with improved environmental quality within the city, the Shanghai municipal government has decided to expand the supply and utilization of natural gas. Shanghai plans to increase the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix to 7 per cent by 2010, up from 3 per cent in 2005. This increase in natural gas demand has to be matched with a corresponding increase in supply. To date, the Shanghai region has relied on offshore extracted natural gas but this supply is limited due to the size of the reserves. Since 2005, the West-East pipeline has provided an alternative for Shanghai but demands from other regions could reduce the potential for expanding supplies from that source. Since domestic production will not be sufficient to meet demand in the near future, Shanghai is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal at the Yangshan deep-water port that would allow an additional supply of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas. Malaysia has already committed to supply LNG to the Shanghai terminal at a price that is significantly higher than the wholesale 'city-gate' price for natural gas transported via pipeline, but still lower than the gas price to end-use consumers. The presence of both an LNG terminal and a transmission pipeline that connects Shanghai to domestic gas-producing regions will create gas-on-gas competition. This study assesses the benefits of introducing such competition to one of China's most advanced cities under various scenarios for demand growth. In this paper, the impact of imported LNG on market concentration in Shanghai's gas market will be analysed using the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (HHI) and the residual supply index (RSI). Our results show that Shanghai remains a supply

The global uranium market: supply and demand 1992-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-06-01

This document looks at the supply of and demand for uranium on markets worldwide and covers the years 1992 to 2010. Uranium and nuclear fuel markets have become truly global with the inclusion of fuel cycle companies from Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leading at the same time to additional supplies becoming available and new political constraints on uranium trading. This report includes new data from China, Eastern Europe and the CIS republics. As recycling plays on ever more important role, the global supply and demand balance for uranium and fuel services is altered. Prospects for nuclear power growth and for the uranium market in the next century remain uncertain. (UK)

On the interdependence of money supply and demand

OpenAIRE

Cavalieri, Duccio

2013-01-01

This is a short essay on the present state of a controversial problem: that of the relationship between the supply and the demand for money. Exogeneous or endogenous money supply? The different positions taken in the literature on the subject are examined and discussed. The author's confidence in their interdependence is then expressed and motivated.

Analysis of natural gas supply strategies at Fort Drum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stucky, D.J.; Shankle, S.A.; Anderson, D.M.

1992-07-01

This analysis investigates strategies for Fort Drum to acquire a reliable natural gas supply while reducing its gas supply costs. The purpose of this study is to recommend an optimal supply mix based on the life-cycle costs of each strategy analyzed. In particular, this study is intended to provide initial guidance as to whether or not the building and operating of a propane-air mixing station is a feasible alternative to the current gas acquisition strategy. The analysis proceeded by defining the components of supply (gas purchase, gas transport, supplemental fuel supply); identifying alternative options for each supply component; constructing gas supply strategies from different combinations of the options available for each supply component and calculating the life-cycle costs of each supply strategy under a set of different scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of future events

Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

2016-04-01

To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Supply and Demand of Teachers and Teaching.

Science.gov (United States)

Zerfoss, Evelyn; Shapiro, Leo J.

There is a general oversupply of teachers. Attempts to regulate teacher supply and demand are flawed by assumptions that teachers are a limited consumer item and that the school system will persist in its present form. The financial crises of schools, the demand of accountability, and the challenge to the principle of compulsory education indicate…

Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

2016-07-01

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

Money, prices and liquidity effects: Separating demand from supply

OpenAIRE

Chadha, Jagjit S.; Corrado, Luisa; Sun, Qi

2008-01-01

In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates and output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because of its impact on financial spreads. And so we decompose broad money into primitive demand and supply shocks. We find that supply shocks have dominated the time series in both the UK and the US in the sh...

Natural gas market assessment. Natural gas supply, western Canada: Recent developments (1982-1992), [and] short-term deliverability outlook (1993-1996)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

A review is presented of the evolution of gas supply from western Canada over the last ten years and a short-term forecast of gas deliverability. To illustrate the changed supply conditions, selected trends and market developments are summarized, including trends in excess deliverability, changes in reserves, the regional distribution of cumulative production, the pace of tieing-in of previously discovered pools for production, the expansion in deliverability from gas storage reservoirs, and recent increases in drilling activity. On the basis of analyses and observations, it is concluded that estimated productive capacity is likely to exceed pipeline capacity on a peak-day basis by a narrow margin over 1993-96. Increasing deliverability from gas storage reservoirs located in the producing provinces is an important factor in handling peak day requirements. From time to time, high demand due to extreme weather conditions could result in pronounced tightness and price fluctuations similar to those seen in winter 1992/93. A strong economic recovery could also result in market tightness, depending on the speed and size of supply response. The growing estimates of resource potential in the western Canada sedimentary basin provide an encouraging indication of the availability of future supply. 29 figs., 3 tabs

Which way for Europe's gas storage market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hureau, Geoffroy; Cornot-Gandolphe, Sylvie

2013-06-01

This slide show presents in a first part the 2013 Situation of the European gas storage market (Capacity, Gas Demand vs. Gas Storage, Spreads and Volatility, LNG effect, Storage Price, Utilization of Storage Facilities, Security of supply). The future of European Gas Demand and Supply are presented in a second part (Demand and Supply Factors, Market Liberalization, Estimates of European UGS Needs by 2030, Planned Working Gas Capacities in Europe)

Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services: a longitudinal comparison in Northern Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwendicke, Falk; Jäger, Ralf; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; van den Berg, Neeltje

2016-09-01

Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity-related demand and the workforce-related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand-supply ratios in 2001 and 2011 in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Northern Germany). The spatial units were zip code areas. Demand per area was estimated by linking population-specific oral morbidities to working times via insurance claim data. Estimated demand was validated against the provided demand in 2001 and 2011. Supply was calculated for both years using cohort data from the dentist register. The ratio of demand and supply was geographically mapped and its distribution between areas assessed using the Gini coefficient. Between 2001 and 2011, a significant decrease of the general population (-7.0 percent), the annual demand (-13.1 percent), and the annual supply (-12.9 percent) was recorded. The estimated demands were nearly (2001: -4 percent) and completely (2011: ±0 percent) congruent with provided demands. The average demand-supply-ratio did not change significantly between 2001 and 2011 (P > 0.05), but was increasingly unequally distributed. In both years, few areas were over-serviced, while many were under-serviced. The established model can be used to estimate spatially specific demand and supply. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

Science.gov (United States)

Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

2017-12-01

In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from

Gas demand to rise in the Usa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2000-01-01

Could US consumption of natural gas rise by as much as 13 quadrillion Btu (quads) over the next 20 years? A new study conducted for the American Gas Foundation by Washington Policy and Analysis says it's certainly a possibility if appropriate policies are implemented. 'Fueling the Future: Natural Gas and New Technologies for a Cleaner 21. Century', confirms what natural gas industry professionals have long suspected: changes in US energy policy that favor increased use of natural gas could improve air quality, conserve energy and reduce reliance on imported oil from politically unstable countries. Consequently, the study forecasts that the environmental, economic and efficiency advantages of natural gas-combined with advances in gas-related technologies and the introduction of new end-use technologies - could help push. US gas consumption into the 35-quad range over the next two decades. Currently, American gas demand is close to 22 quads a year. The study tracks two scenarios: a 'current projection', which shows gas demand reaching nearly 30 quads by 2020, and an 'accelerated projection', which foresees demand topping 35 quads by then based on the adoption of national policies encouraging greater use of natural gas. (authors)

Gas Supply, Pricing Mechanism and the Economics of Power Generation in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanxin Liu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, green energy is the top priority for China. China has realized that natural gas, as a low-carbon energy source, fits with the nation’s energy demand and will play a critical role in the energy transition, but the actual industry development is slower than expected. By analyzing the major gas corporations around the world, the paper finds that the key factors of the sector are supply and price of the energy resource. A comprehensive analysis on domestic and foreign imported gas reveals a trend of oversupply in China in the future. Given the critical import dependence, China has introduced a series of gas price reforms since 2013, which have led to negative impacts on important gas consumption sectors including power generation. With the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE model, we find that under the prevailing gas supply structure and price level, the economy of utility gas power generation will remain unprofitable, while combined cooling heating and power (CCHP is only commercially feasible in coastal developed regions. If continuing, such a trend will not only bring forth disastrous consequences to gas power industry, but also damage the upstream gas industry, more importantly, impede the energy transition. We conclude the paper with policy implications on pricing mechanism reform, developing domestic unconventional gas and the R&D of gas turbine.

Physical Therapy and Occupational Therapy: Suggested Readings [and] Physical Therapy: Supply/Demand--Some Facts [and] Occupational Therapy: Supply and Demand--Some Facts. Information on Personnel Supply and Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

National Clearinghouse for Professions in Special Education, Reston, VA.

Brought together are two fact sheets on the supply of and demand for physical therapists and occupational therapists. The fact sheets cite statistical data from the National Easter Seal Society, the American Physical Therapy Association, and the American Occupational Therapy Association. The cited facts focus on the need to recruit and retain…

RFG in tight supply at introduction, then opt outs reduced demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, A.; Dale, C.; Lidderdale, T.; Zyren, J.; Hackworth, J.; Shore, J.; Burdette, M.

1995-01-01

The first reformulated gasoline (RFG) season went smoothly, meaning the industry was able to deliver product where it was needed. The absence of major refinery outages, along with unexpected reductions in demand resulting from several areas leaving the program at the last minute, contributed to this smooth transition. But the RFG market remains in a state of transition related to unexpected events that have affected supply and demand. An analysis of the RFG supply/demand scenario highlights the effects these events have had on gasoline markets. The paper discusses prior experiences with environmental programs, the complexity of the RFG program, RFG demand, production, imports, inventories, price volatility, and demand outlook

A distribution planning model for natural gas supply chain: A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamedi, Maryam; Zanjirani Farahani, Reza; Husseini, Mohammad Moattar; Esmaeilian, Gholam Reza

2009-01-01

In this paper, a real-world case study of a natural gas supply chain is investigated. By using concepts related to natural gas industry and the relations among the components of transmission and distribution network, a six-level supply chain has been introduced and presented schematically. The defined supply chain is a single-objective, multi-period, and single-product problem that is formulated as a mixed integer non-linear programming model, which can easily be linearized. The objective of this model is to minimize direct or indirect distribution costs. There are six groups of constraints including capacity, input and output balancing, demand satisfaction, network flow continuity, and relative constraints to the required binary variables. The solution algorithm of the problem is hierarchical; in each step, one section of the problem is solved using an exact method; the outputs of this section are passed to the next relative section as inputs. Finally, it is shown that the problem has been solved in a reasonable time and desirable results are attained. The use of proposed model and its solution approach have been studied in two gas trunk lines, to present the priority of its cost saving

Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter period 2009-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-10-01

Every year, RTE conducts a prospective study of the balance between supply and demand for electricity for the coming winter period, covering the whole of mainland France. This period of the year is looked at closely, primarily due to the high levels of electricity demand seen during cold snaps. The study by RTE is used to identify periods where the supply-demand balance comes under strain; it explores the measures that can be taken by electricity market players and RTE to avoid any interruption in supply during peak demand periods in France. RTE is responsible for managing the balance between supply and demand for electricity in mainland France, in real time. To do this, it anticipates potential risks that may supply may come under strain - well in advance - and informs market players. If periods are identified where the supply-demand balance comes under strain, RTE works with the electricity generators to look at possible ways of altering the schedules for shutting down generating units, and takes account of the possibilities for demand response (load reduction) reported by suppliers. As a last resort, if these preemptive measures prove insufficient and the situation becomes critical, RTE alerts the government of the risk that supply will be interrupted, and takes action in real time to limit the impact on the power system. For temperatures close to seasonal norms, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance appears significantly less favourable than last winter until the end of January. Imports could be required between mid-November 2009 and the end of January 2010, to cover electricity demand in France and satisfy the technical security margin stipulated by RTE. To do this, suppliers would have to look to the European markets, in addition to activating demand response (load reduction) possibilities with their customer portfolios. In the event of an intense and sustained spell of cold weather, the technical limit for imports into the French

Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

1997-01-01

Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

2009-06-01

In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

Recent rapid increases in the demand for city gas in manufacturing industries and future developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kusano, Shigero

1992-01-01

City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world

Coordination of Supply Chain with a Dominant Retailer under Demand Disruptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We develop a coordination model of a one-manufacturer multi-retailers supply chain with a dominant retailer. We consider the impact of a dominant retailer on the market retail price and his sales promotion opportunity and examine how the manufacturer can coordinate such a supply chain by revenue-sharing contract after demand disruptions. We address the following important research questions in this paper. (i How do we design an appropriate revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain with a dominant retailer without demand disruptions? (ii When demand is disrupted with variations in market scale and price sensitive coefficient, can the original contract still be valid? (iii How do the demand disruptions affect the coordination mechanism under different disruption scenarios and how should the new contract change? Finally, we generate important insights by both analytical and numerical examples.

Huge supply/demand increases seen in oxygenate forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoades, A.K.

1992-01-01

Industry originally projected that oxygenate supply would not be able to meet the demand created by U.S. oxygenated and reformulated gasoline mandates. This paper reports that those projections have been reserved in two recent industry reports - one from Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI) and one from Pace Consultants Inc. Pace's report, by Paulo Nery and Nathan Sims, predicts gasoline and oxygenates demand, and examines the role ethanol may play in changing those values. CMAI's report estimates captive supply and demand of butylenes and oxygenates. Oxygenates are entering the domestic gasoline market this winter as a result of the 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is the most important oxygenate, although ethanol, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME) are gathering market strength. Ethanol's strength is derived from President Bush's ruling granting a waiver to reformulated gasoline containing ethanol. This waiver allows ethanol blends to have a vapor pressure 1 psi higher than other types of gasoline

Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-09-01

The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

Study of factors affecting demand and supply of sugar in Indonesia ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study is aimed at determining: (a) the factors influencing the demand of national sugar, and the price elasticity of demand (ep) and; (b) the factors influencing the supply of national sugar, and the price elasticity of supply (es). The data comprised a time series of 1990-2006, taken from the Central Statistics Bureau, The ...

A Supply and Demand Update of the Molybdenum-99 Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-08-01

Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m account for roughly 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing over 30 million examinations worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and 6 hours for its daughter isotope, technetium-99m (' 99m Tc), and thus must be produced continually - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing 99 Mo-producing research reactor and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. In 2011, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), along with its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR), released a report that presents the reasons behind the lack of infrastructure that led to global supply shortages and a policy approach to encourage long-term medical isotope supply security. In that report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: The Path to Reliability, the NEA also provides potential futures of supply and demand out to 2030. Since the release of The Path there have been a number of changes in the market and therefore this document provides an update on the 2011 supply and demand situation. This update is based on information provided to the NEA by members of the HLG-MR and other key stakeholders. This presentation of supply and demand future scenarios for the 99 Mo market revises previous NEA future scenarios based on new data and target conversion commitments from the supply chain. The update, unfortunately, does not present a more optimistic future scenario than previous presentations - the concern around the uneconomic situation of the supply chain continues to dominate the potential for new projects. This results in the potential for long-term shortages within the decade. However, there are a

Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauthier, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO_2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

WISDOM: A GIS-based supply demand mapping tool for woodfuel management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masera, Omar; Ghilardi, Adrian; Drigo, Rudi; Angel Trossero, Miguel

2006-01-01

In this paper, it is argued that adequately assessing the implications of the current patterns of woodfuel production and use, and the sustainable potentials of woodfuel resources, requires a holistic view and a better knowledge of the spatial patterns of woodfuel supply and demand. There is a need to conduct multi-scale spatially explicit analyses of woodfuel supply and demand that are able to articulate local heterogeneity at the regional and national levels. Studies that provide full-country coverage and are based on consistent integration of data at lower geographical scales are woefully lacking. This paper describes the Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping model (WISDOM). This is a GIS-based tool, aimed at analyzing woodfuel demand and supply spatial patterns from a new perspective that includes: (a) the assembling of existing but dispersed information into single data sets, (b) a modular integration of these data sets, based on the analysis of key variables associated with woodfuel demand and supply patterns, and (c) a multiple-scale and spatially explicit representation of the results, in order to rank or highlight areas in which several criteria of interest coincide. The final objective of WISDOM is to assess the sustainability of woodfuel as a renewable and widespread energy source, while supporting strategic planning and policy formulation. Three case studies for Mexico, Slovenia, and Senegal illustrate the practical implementation and innovative results of using WISDOM. (author)

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Appendix to the technical report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 93 tabs., 13 figs.

Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Appendix to the technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-12-01

The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 93 tabs., 13 figs

The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

2014-09-01

Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

1982-01-01

A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jung Jeung; Park, Nam Hee; Lee, Kun Sei; Chee, Hyun Keun; Sim, Sung Bo; Kim, Myo Jeong; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myunghwa; Park, Choon Seon

2016-12-01

While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors

Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2012-01-01

Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

2016-01-01

In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

Classical gas: Hearty prices, robust demand combine to pump breezy optimism through 2005 forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lunan, D.

2005-01-01

The outlook for natural gas in 2005 is said to be a watershed year, with a lengthy list of developments that could have significant effect on the industry for many years to come. In light of continuing high demand and static supply prospects, prices will have to continue to be high in order to ensure the necessary infrastructure investments to keep gas flowing from multiple sources to the consumer. It is predicted that against the backdrop of robust prices several supply initiatives will continue to advance rapidly in 2005, such as the $7 billion Mackenzie Gas Project on which public hearings are expected to start this summer, along with regulatory clarity about the $20 billion Alaska Highway Natural Gas Pipeline Project to move North Slope gas to southern markets. Drilling of new gas wells will continue to approach or even surpass 18,000 new wells, with an increasing number of these being coal-bed methane wells. Despite high level drilling activity, supply is expected to grow only about 400 MMcf per day. Greater supply increments are expected through continued LNG terminal development, although plans for new LNG terminal development have been met with stiff resistance from local residents both in Canada and the United States. Imports of liquefied natural gas into the United States slowed dramatically in 2004 under the severe short-term downward pressure on natural gas prices, nevertheless, these imports are expected to rebound to new record highs in 2005. Capacity is expected to climb from about 2.55 Bcf per day in 2004 to as much as 6.4 Bcf per day by late 2007. At least one Canadian import facility, Anadarko's one Bcf per day Bear Head terminal on Nova Scotia's Strait of Canso, is expected to become operational by late 2007 or early 2008. 6 photos

Operational modeling of a sustainable gas supply chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim

2010-01-01

Biogas production from codigestion of cattle manure and biomass can have a significant contribution to a sustainable gas supply when this gas is upgraded to specifications prescribed for injection into the national gas grid and injected into this grid. In this study, we analyzed such a gas supply

Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, D.J.

2004-01-01

This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

Balancing the supply mix to meet tomorrow's energy needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiggin, M.

2004-01-01

This presentation emphasized the need to balance the power supply mix to ensure future energy needs. A balanced supply includes generation supply options that include renewable energy sources, natural gas, oil or coal. The role of combined heat and power (CHP) and district energy in this supply mix is considered to be a potential generation solution. The challenge facing Ontario's Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) is to balance supply and demand, phase out coal, promote renewables, diminish demand and determine the new role for natural gas. A graph by the National Energy Board depicting Canada's energy future and scenarios for supply and demand to 2025 indicates that gas yields from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin are declining. It is expected that with growing demands for natural gas, prices will remain high and there will be a need for new generation capacity. The viable options for energy supply include a re-examination of the district energy advantage through industrial waste heat, biomass and other renewables, and the integration of industrial and community energy systems. Other options include the continued recognition of distributed generation in the form of combined heat and power. 4 figs

Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

1999-01-01

The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

Oil and gas information 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-07-01

This reference book on current developments in oil and gas supply and demand contains country-specific statistics for OECD countries on production, trade, demand and prices. This book is divided in four parts. Part 1 gives the statistics sources for oil, gas and by products (lubricants, bitumen, paraffin waxes etc..) supply, demand, consumption, origin, feedstocks, import and export prices, spot and end-user prices and taxes, and gives also the definitions of products, supply and consumption items reported in this book. Part 2 provides summary tables of world oil and gas market developments with time series back to the early 1970's. Parts 3 and 4 provide, in tables form, a more detailed and comprehensive picture of oil and gas supply and demand for the OECD by region and individual countries. (J.S.)

A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, J.

2004-01-01

This paper examined electricity pricing issues for both the immediate future as well as over the long term. The near term outlook resources for the summer of 2004 were reviewed. Intermediate critical supply and demand issues were projected with consideration given to the return of the Pickering A plant and coal phase out. In the long term, it was considered that pricing and demand would reflect conservation issues and demand side response, as well as the timing of Requests For Proposals (RFPs) and the phase out of coal-fired capacity. The impact of the coal phase-out in Ontario was examined, with particular reference to timing and market structure implications. Potential conservation impacts were presented and projected Ontario supply/demand balances were evaluated. The challenges facing the new market structure include pricing dynamics and a reliance on RFPs. The significance of specifying diversity objectives was also discussed. It was concluded that the Ontario Ministry of Energy should play a role in establishing targets for conservation, renewable energy and the overall supply of electricity. Rigorous analysis is necessary before specifying targets in terms of hydroelectric and nuclear generation as opposed to non-fossil generation. tabs., figs

Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: a prognosis for 2012-2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

2014-07-01

This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012-2030. Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios - which are the most probable - revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030-0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers' services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Szozda

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

LPG consumption in the long term: supply, pricing demand with particular reference to the petrochemical sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shammas, P.

1996-01-01

Supply of LPG is forecast to grow over the next decade from the present level of 180 million t/y to about 185-190 million t/y, depending on demand in Asia which is rising rapidly and on new LPG export projects. Most of the increase in supply will come from new gas and crude oil production, from new LPG ventures, and from refineries reducing the n-butane content of motor gasoline. Pricing will remain volatile as a result of crude oil price volatility, variations in the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and as result of competition between ethane, PPG, naphtha and condensate as ethylene cracker feedstocks. Demand for LPG in OECD countries will continue to show steady growth. The increase in demand will be more rapid in the relatively less developed OECD countries, as the trend in Spain has shown in recent years. Provided that the LPG price is competitive, demand in China, South-East Asia and the Indian sub-continent could grow beyond current projections. Consumption in these countries will depend on the installation of distribution facilities and the rate at which LPG can substitute for traditional fuels and kerosene as well as compete for limited disposable incomes. (author)

DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

OpenAIRE

S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi; N. Azad

2012-01-01

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk o...

Electric utilities and the demand for natural gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uri, N D; Atkinson, S

1976-03-01

The scarcity of natural gas has given rise to a series of priorities of deliveries based on end use and drafted by the Federal Power Commission. The U.S. Supreme Court, on June 7, 1972, held that the Commission has jurisdiction over curtailments in the service of gas in interstate commerce to both resale and direct industrial customers. This decision reversed a Fifth Circuit Court ruling that protected direct industrial customers from curtailments. The FPC priority curtailments are classed from 1 to 9, for which electric utilities are concentrated in classes 4 to 9. As weather conditions become more severe, not only do the residential and commercial consumers demand more electrical energy, they also demand more natural gas. The result is that there is less natural gas available for electric utilities to use for generation so they change to an alternative fuel. A demand model for the short term for natural gas for electric utilities is given; primary factors involve the price of natural gas, the prices of substitute fuels, and the demand for electrical energy by the various consumer classes. (MCW)

Preliminary study of low carbon power demand and supply toward 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ikegami, Takashi; Akai, Makoto

2012-01-01

It takes tens of years to realize the sustainable economy through reformation of energy infrastructure. The share of the electric power in the total energy increases, as the energy efficiency technologies of buildings and transportation and renewable energy technologies are of power technologies. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to deploy the long-term power demand-supply analysis and the long-term power system augmentation analysis so that the augmentation should be optimized and robust under various uncertainties so as to fulfill the criteria of security, economy and environmental. This paper, utilizing a long-range power system demand and supply model, ESPRIT, evaluates several scenarios with several options of nuclear. RE deployment, and thermal generation reinforcement based on the indicators such as self-sufficiency, economy, and environment to pursue the best demand-supply mix. (author)

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

Creating hourly distributions at national level for various energy demands and renewable energy supplies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Connolly, David; Drysdale, Dave; Hansen, Kenneth

2015-01-01

being recorded over longer time horizons, for example over one day. In this paper, a methodology is presented for creating hourly distributions for energy systems analysis tools. On the demand side, hourly distributions are developed for electricity, heating, cooling, and transport while the supply side...... includes wind, solar (photovoltaic and thermal), and wave power. Distributions are not created for dispatchable plants, such as coal, gas, and nuclear thermal plants, since their output is usually determined by the energy modelling tool rather than by a dependent resource. The methodologies are purposely...

The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

Science.gov (United States)

Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

2017-10-01

The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perwez, Usama; Sohail, Ahmed; Hassan, Syed Fahad; Zia, Usman

2015-01-01

The long-term forecasting of electricity demand and supply has assumed significant importance in fundamental research to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity issues. In this article, we provide an overview of structure of electric power sector of Pakistan and a summary of historical electricity demand & supply data, current status of divergent set of energy policies as a framework for development and application of a LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternate Planning) model of Pakistan's electric power sector. Pakistan's LEAP model is used to analyze the supply policy selections and demand assumptions for future power generation system on the basis of economics, technicality and implicit environmental implications. Three scenarios are enacted over the study period (2011–2030) which include BAU (Business-As-Usual), NC (New Coal) & GF (Green Future). The results of these scenarios are compared in terms of projected electricity demand & supply, net present cost analysis (discount rate at 4%, 7% and 10%) and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reductions, along with sensitivity analysis to study the effect of varying parameters on total cost. A concluding section illustrates the policy implications of model for futuristic power generation and environmental policies in Pakistan. - Highlights: • Pakistan-specific electricity demand model is presented. • None of the scenarios exceeded the price of 12 US Cents/kWh. • By 2030, fuel cost is the most dominant factor to influence electricity per unit cost. • By 2030, CO_2 emissions per unit electricity will increase significantly in coal scenario relative to others. • By 2030, the penetration of renewable energy and conservation policies can save 70.6 tWh electricity.

Northern entanglement : Arctic gas pipeline plans caught in web of competing interests, but dire supply-demand forecasts indicate line will be built

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stonehouse, D.

2005-01-01

This article discussed land access and regulatory issues surrounding decisions to stop field work of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline in the spring of 2005. Although current supply and demand balances in natural gas markets argue that the pipeline will be beneficial, Imperial Oil and its partners have halted activities such as geotechnical data-gathering programs and preparatory work on contracting construction. The project's future depends on the successful resolution of First Nations land claims, governmental disputes and various activist groups protesting the pipeline's construction. Imperial Oil has suggested that the pipeline presents a significant opportunity for the people of the North to reduce their reliance on government and will create jobs and business opportunities for Aboriginal people. In the aftermath of work stoppage, Alberta's former Energy Minister stated that imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Alaska gas from the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline Project may arrive on the market in advance of the Mackenzie Valley project, which would affect the project's financial future. It was noted that access and benefits agreements with First Nations stakeholders have yet to be reached. Lawsuits involving the Deh Cho First Nations were examined. It was also suggested that Imperial Oil has not included information on the Alberta portion of the project in its environmental impact assessment. It was concluded that if the Mackenzie Delta line isn't in service by 2010, North American consumers can expect to spend an extra $190 billion on gas from 2011 to 2020. 3 figs

Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jung Jeung Lee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time

Improvement in supply chain management for oil and gas sector using drag reduction theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anjum, A.A.; Chughtai, A.; Shafeeq, A.; Muhammad, A.

2010-01-01

Supply chain management is an integrative philosophy about managing the flow of distribution channels from supplier to the consumer. PARCO, an oil and gas company in Pakistan has three existing pipelines. Out of three, two pipelines are running parallel from Karachi to Mehmood kot. One pipeline is of crude oil and meeting the demand of PARCO refinery while second pipeline is of High Speed Diesel (HSD) and third pipeline is of (HSD and Kerosene) running from Mehmood Kot to Machhike (Sheikhupura). PARCO supply petroleum products from Shikarpur, Mehmood Kot, Faisalabad and Machhike to oil marketing companies (OMCs) as per their share, standard and demand. The purpose of these pipelines is to meet the country demand for petroleum products at various locations all over Pakistan. In the peak season when OMCs have high demand and receipt of product from PARCO pipelines are less, there is a need to enhance the flow rate of oil inside the PARCO pipelines to fulfill the demand of OMCs. This could be done economically by the application of drag reduction theory. So by injecting drag reducer, dragging of the oil inside the pipeline could appreciably be reduced thereby improving the pumping of oil. (author)

Wingas in natural gas supply in Belgium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Recently Wingas has become active in the transport and supply of natural gas in Belgium and succeeded in entering contracts for the supply of natural gas which cover 6% of the Belgian market. Wingas is a German-Russian joint venture between BASF-daughter Wintershall and OAO Gasprom [nl

Research in the Netherlands on system integration. Analysis of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Werhoven, M.; Bruel, R.

2000-07-01

Results of studies on integrated systems can contribute to the realization of sustainability targets of the Dutch government. In this report an overview is given of the supply-side and the demand-side of energy-related research on system integration. Also, recommendations to improve the coordination between supply and demand are given. 14 refs

Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies, 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This publication provides information on the total reserves, production, and deliverability capabilities of the 64 interstate pipeline companies required to file the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 15, ''Interstate Pipeline's Annual Report of Gas Supply.'' Data reported on this form are not considered to be confidential. This publication is the 29th in a series of annual reports on the total gas supplies of interstate pipeline companies since the inception of individual company reports to the Federal Power Commission (FPC) in 1964 for report year 1963

The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance

OpenAIRE

Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

2016-01-01

In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors? influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of c...

Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

2010-01-01

The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Whan-Seon

2013-06-01

Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

U.S. hardwood fiber demand and supply situation : globalization and structural change

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince; Irene Durbak

2005-01-01

This paper reviews demand and supply trends for hardwood fiber in the United States. The objective is to illustrate nationwide shifts in demand and supply and show how the hardwood pulpwood market reacts to those shifts at a regional level. Thus, the market situation is illustrated using an economic rationale, and trends are projected under assumptions about future...

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Mackenzie Gas Project : gas resource and supply study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, D.G.; Braaten, K.M.

2004-01-01

A study was conducted to assess the future gas supply for the Mackenzie Gas Project. The economically recoverable gas resources and deliverability in the region were assessed in order to support construction of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline and the associated gathering system. This supply study was based on a 25 year timeframe for resource development. Production forecasts were also prepared for 50 years following the date of the study. Natural gas forecasts for the general area to be served by the proposed pipeline were also presented. This report includes an introduction to the final gas resource and supply study as well as the regional geology relating to discovered and undiscovered resources. The following regions were included in the study area: onshore Mackenzie Delta including the Niglintgak, Parsons Lake and Taglu anchor fields; central Mackenzie Valley region extending from the Mackenzie Delta south to 63 degrees latitude; northern portion of the Yukon Territory; and, portions of the offshore Mackenzie Delta region limited to a water depth of 30 metres. Forecasts and economic analyses were prepared for the following 3 scenarios: contingent onshore resources only; contingent and prospective onshore resources; and, contingent and prospective onshore and offshore resources. Sensitivity forecasts were prepared for a fully expanded pipeline capacity of 1.8 bcf/day with an equal capacity gathering system. In addition, the National Energy Board estimates of resources for the 3 anchor field were used in place of the operator's estimates. A geological review was included for the plays in the study area. 15 refs., 43 tabs., 38 figs

Co-evolution of demand and supply under competition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vermeulen, B.; Kok, de A.G.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we derive strategies to enforce dominance in a business-to-consumer market with heterogeneous, competing products, while the market segmentation evolves through interaction of demand and supply. By using evolutionary economic notions, we extend operations management studies on

Forecast analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance in France for summer 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-05-01

Under normal meteorological conditions, and notwithstanding localized risks associated with the vulnerability of certain regions, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance in continental France shows no particular risk for the entire summer 2013 period. Special vigilance is maintained in the Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur region, given the risk of forest fires and potential outages affecting the dual 400 kV link from Toulon. This assessment is based on the assumption that forecast demand for summer 2013 will remain broadly stable as compared with summer 2012, given public economic indicators, but also that the forecast availability of the French generating fleet will increase by 1100 MW compared with summer 2012. This increased availability is based on information supplied by generators, and notably includes scheduled temporary outages of certain combined cycle gas turbines. Finally, growth in photovoltaic generation (3,700 MW of installed capacity currently in France) is continuing at a sustained pace, leading to a 700 MW increase in the mean availability rate for this generation technology as compared with summer 2012. Moreover, the substantial investments already made by RTE or currently in progress to develop its network (voltage support measures, Cotentin-Maine line, etc.) have had a very positive impact on the reliability of the power system. (authors)

Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

Education: Demand and Supply of Teachers for Primary Schools in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

How to ensure Nigerians have access to Universal Basic Education has often attracted the attention of some States and Federal Government of Nigeria since 1955. Several factors, bordering on supply of teachers, facilities, finance have constrained implementation of well fashioned policies. Demand and supply of teachers ...

New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

2015-08-07

To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

2007-01-01

The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: A prognosis for 2012–2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vanckaviciene, Aurika, E-mail: aurika.vanckaviciene@gmail.com [Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Radiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas (Lithuania); Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Nursing and Care, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas (Lithuania); Starkiene, Liudvika, E-mail: liudvika.starkiene@lsmuni.lt [Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Department of Preventive Medicine, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas (Lithuania); Macijauskiene, Jūrate, E-mail: jurate.macijauskiene@lsmuni.lt [Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Faculty of Nursing, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas (Lithuania)

2014-07-15

Background: This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012–2030. Materials and methods: Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Results: Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios – which are the most probable – revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030—0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Conclusions: Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers’ services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%.

Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: A prognosis for 2012–2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

2014-01-01

Background: This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012–2030. Materials and methods: Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Results: Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios – which are the most probable – revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030—0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Conclusions: Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers’ services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%

Supply and Demand for Business Education in Naval Aviation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gray, Obra L

2005-01-01

... modernization with current readiness. This project analyzes the supply and demand for postgraduate business education to determine how prepared Naval Aviation is to achieve long-term transformation objectives...

Re-assessment of woodfuel supply and demand relationships in Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Top, Neth; Ty, Sokhun; Mizoue, Nobuya; Ito, Satoshi; Kai, Shigetaka; Nakao, Toshio

2006-01-01

This study re-examined a previously published relationship between supply and demand for woodfuel at different spatial scales within Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia. We considered three different scales: The first was the whole area of the province. The second scale calculated village-scale data in zones of 1, 3, and 5km from each village and then aggregated for all villages of the province. The third scale also calculated data for the three zones at the village-scale, but the data were then aggregated according to three regional groupings based on population density and forest availability. When evaluating woodfuel supply, we excluded biomass increment of trees with diameter larger than 30cm because it was found that local people rarely collect trees larger than 30cm for fuel. On the demand side, dead wood, which was included in the previous assessment, and woodfuel obtained from non-forest sources were excluded to enable comparison of supply and demand that related only to living trees originating from forests. The re-assessment revealed large decreases in both supply and demand at each scale as compared with our previous assessment; supply reduced by 46% and demand by 36% at the whole province scale. However, the ratios of supply to demand at each scale examined were very similar for both assessments. This re-assessment therefore supports our previous findings: there is a deficiency in woodfuel resources in areas of high population density along the main road due to high woodfuel demand and a predominance of agricultural land and regrowth forest in close proximity to villages. This study underscores the usefulness of taking detailed woodfuel consumption patterns into account when assessing the impact of woodfuel demand on forests. For a more accurate assessment on the sustainability of woodfuel resources and utilization, further research is needed to project future woodfuel demand, not only for green wood from forested sources, but also for dead wood and

When Demand Creates its Own Supply: Saving Traps

OpenAIRE

Christophe Chamley

2014-01-01

The mechanism by which aggregate supply creates the income that generates its matching demand (called Say's Law), may not work in a general equilibrium with decentralized markets and savings in bonds or money. Full employment is an equilibrium, but convergence to that state is slow. A self-fulfilling precautionary motive to accumulate bonds (with a zero aggregate supply) can set the economy on an equilibrium path with a fast convergence towards a steady state with unemployment that may be an ...

Safety stock or safety lead time : coping with unreliability in demand and supply

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Kampen, T.J.; van Donk, D.P.; van der Zee, D.J.

2010-01-01

Safety stock and safety lead time are common measures used to cope with uncertainties in demand and supply. Typically, these uncertainties are studied in isolated instances, ignoring settings with uncertainties both in demand and in supply. The current literature largely neglects case study based

The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chae, Kyu Nam

1995-02-01

An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

New energy efficiency technologies associated with increased natural gas demand in delivery and consumption sectors of Iran

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alghalandis, Saeid Mansouri

2010-09-15

Increasing population and economic growth in developing countries has changed their energy consumption patterns. So, the conventional systems of energy supply have become inadequate to deal with rising energy demand. Iran has great reservoirs of natural gas and its natural gas usage is far more than average international standard. Dominance of natural gas share in energy basket in Iran, make it necessary to consider energy efficient technologies and solutions for this domain. In this study new technologies for increasing energy efficiency (EE) in natural gas delivery and consumption sub sectors are discussed and evaluated according to available infrastructures in Iran.

Development of oil supply and demand planning model for mid- and long-term

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sung Hyun [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1997-10-01

Despite the liberalization of oil market, a systematic model is required for reasonable supply and demand of oil, which still has an important influence on industry and state economy. It is required a demand model deriving prospects of each sector and product and a supply model examining the optimum rate of operation, production mix of products, stock, export and import, and the size of equipment investment to meet given demand. As the first phase for the development of supply and demand model, the existing oil and energy models in domestic and overseas were reviewed and recommendations for establishing a Korean oil supply and demand model were derived in this study. Based on these, a principle for establishing a model and a rough framework were set up. In advance of mid- and long-term prospects, a short-term prospect model was established and the short-term prospects for the first quarter of 1999 and for the year 1999 were presented on trial. Due to the size and characters of a supply model, a plan for an ideal model was first explained and then a plan for creating a model step by step was presented as a realistic scheme. (author). 16 refs., 9 figs., 19 tabs.

Gas supply and Yorkshire Electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

1995-04-01

Yorkshire Electricity, among other independent suppliers of gas, now competes for a share of the United Kingdom gas market, previously monopolised by British Gas. The experience of this successful electric utility company, expanding into the industrial and domestic gas supply market is described in the article. The company`s involvement stems partly from the fact that significant volumes of gas are landed at three terminals within its franchise area. The company will also seek to use subsidaries to generate electric power from gas turbine power plants and explore the possibilities of developing combined heat and power (CHP) plants where appropriate. (UK)

Uranium demand, supply and prices, 1991-2000: a report to Greenpeace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Faircheallaigh, C.

1990-01-01

Taking account of recent developments in relation to existing nuclear power plants and applying realistic schedules to new developments, this study has calculated estimates of future nuclear power plant capacity which are slightly lower than other published forecasts for 1996, and significantly lower (by between 7 and 9 per cent) than other forecasts for 2000. This data was then used to calculate demand for newly-mined uranium in each year from 1991 to 2000. Detailed data relating to some 40 existing uranium mines and twenty planned projects to estimate supply during the same period, have also been analysed. Combining the estimates for supply and demand, the study forecasts a small shortfall in supply during 1991-1995. However, this shortfall can be covered by a slight reduction in the uranium stocks which will exist at that time and, on the basis of experience during recent years, it is unlikely to result in more than a modest increase in prices. Supply is expected to significantly exceed demand from 1996-1998, and to slightly exceed demand in 1999-2000. This is likely to exert downward pressure on uranium prices, keeping them close to their current low levels in real terms. This information is then used to gauge the economic prospects for development of new uranium mining capacity in Australia between now and the end of the century. 18 refs., 6 tabs

Demand for power in Calcutta Electricity Supply Corporation area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banerjee, N

1980-07-01

Since the early 1970's there has been a continuous crisis of power supply to the Calcutta industrial region. Historical records show that only the peak demand has grown and has a potential for growth, which, with an unchanging base demand, results in a low load factor and consequently inefficient power system operation. Attempts to shift industrial loads by operating industrial plants during non-peak hours are described. Adverse economic conditions eliminated the need for extra working shifts. It is concluded that the power system supplying the Calcutta region has an insufficient peak load generating capacity and an uneconomic load curve and that stricter hourly schedules for power use by industries should be adhered to in order to minimize these problems. (LCL)

Optimisation of a green gas supply chain--a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bekkering, J; Broekhuis, A A; van Gemert, W J T

2010-01-01

In this review the knowledge status of and future research options on a green gas supply based on biogas production by co-digestion is explored. Applications and developments of the (bio)gas supply in The Netherlands have been considered, whereafter literature research has been done into the several stages from production of dairy cattle manure and biomass to green gas injection into the gas grid. An overview of a green gas supply chain has not been made before. In this study it is concluded that on installation level (micro-level) much practical knowledge is available and on macro-level knowledge about availability of biomass. But on meso-level (operations level of a green gas supply) very little research has been done until now. Future research should include the modeling of a green gas supply chain on an operations level, i.e. questions must be answered as where to build digesters based on availability of biomass. Such a model should also advise on technology of upgrading depending on scale factors. Future research might also give insight in the usability of mixing (partly upgraded) biogas with natural gas. The preconditions for mixing would depend on composition of the gas, the ratio of gases to be mixed and the requirements on the mixture.