WorldWideScience

Sample records for gas supply demand

  1. Natural gas supply and demand in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comaschi, C.; Di Giulio, E.; Sormani, E.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the dynamics between natural gas supply and demand in Italy. In order to supply Italy with increasing volumes of gas, several new pipelines and re gasification plants are expected in the next future, but their implementation is uncertain. Thus, there exist the possibility of natural gas shortage in the future. On the other hand, if all the expected projects will be implemented, situations of oversupply cannot be excluded. A system dynamics model deepens such as issue [it

  2. Natural gas supply and demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGill, C.B.

    1998-01-01

    The outlook for U.S. natural gas supply and demand in the residential, commercial, industrial/cogeneration, electricity and transportation sectors for 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was presented. A summary of gas well completions from 1990 to 1997 was also provided. The Canadian natural gas resource was estimated at 184 trillion cubic feet. In 1996, Canada produced 5.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, half of which was exported to the U.S. New pipeline projects have been proposed to transport natural gas from eastern offshore areas and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. A table representing U.S. and Canada gas trade from 1990 to 1997 and a map of proposed Canadian and U.S. natural gas pipeline routes were also included. Looking into the future, this speaker predicted continued volatility in natural gas prices. 9 tabs., 9 figs

  3. Thai gas demand seen outstripping supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Thailand's demand for gas will outstrip supplies in the late 1990s as rapid economic growth continues. Gas will be a cornerstone for Thai energy policy throughout the growth, although sources in neighboring countries need development. Thai gas production will rise 25% from 1992 to average 1 bcfd by 1995. Including production from new discoveries, production could rise to 1.5 bcfd by 2000, up almost 90% from the 1992 level. Increased gas flow output in the mid-1990s will be due largely to development of Gulf of Thailand fields. By 1998, production from Gulf of Thailand fields will not be enough to offset the decline in today's fields. Thailand will need to import more than 1 bcfd by 2005 in the absence of future discoveries in the country. The paper discusses new pipelines and imports

  4. IMPACT OF UNCONVENTIONAL GAS PRODUCTION ON LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Karasalihović Sedlar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Production of unconventional gas plays a double role in the case of liquefied natural gas (LNG industry. Technological development of gas production from unconventional resources could result in significant decrease of LNG import demand but at the same time unconventional resources also represent a potential for new sources of LNG supply. In past few years unconventional gas production in North America has increased constantly what has contributed to natural gas prices decrease and LNG imports reduction. The rise of unconventional gas production along with global recession significantly influenced LNG demand decrease in the USA. Concerning unconventional gas production rapid development, potential decrease of LNG demand in rest of the world is expected (the paper is published in Croatian.

  5. Balancing gas supply and demand with a sustainable gas supply chain : A study based on field data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ir. J. Bekkering; prof. dr. Wim van Gemert; Drs. E.J. Hengeveld; A.A. Broekhuis

    2013-01-01

    The possibilities of balancing gas supply and demand with a green gas supply chain were analyzed. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, the produced biogas is upgraded to (Dutch) natural gas standards. The applicability of modeling yearly gas demand data in a

  6. EMF 9 scenarios Canadian natural gas: Potential demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    The basic analytical perspectives of this work are: (1) Canada is a price taker on the US natural gas market; (2) Gas competes with HFO in both markets, and Canada is integrated into the international oil market; (3) Canadian and US income growth rates are consistent with each other, given the major influence of US economic performance on that of the Canadian economy; and (4) Given the price, income and other assumptions, we used the Board's Energy Demand Model to calculate annual demand for natural gas in each price case. We used the Board's models for reserves additions and productive capacity estimation to calculate potential annual supply. The difference between demand and potential supply is the potential exportable volume. The annual productive capacity curve assumes, agnostically, that all potential production is sold yearly

  7. Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1996-01-01

    Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

  8. U.S. natural gas liquids supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urquhart, W.L.

    1996-01-01

    United States supply and demand situation for natural gas liquids (NGL) was reviewed. The presentation was in four parts: (1) key assumptions for U.S. NGL supply and demand, (2) specific balances for ethane, propane, and butane, (3) some of the key changes now occurring at the customer level, and how these might affect NGLs, and (4) a suggestion of where the future might deviate from projections so severely that projections could be fundamentally wrong. Despite such 'exogenous variables' higher demand projections downstream in the chemical industry were said to be appearing, albeit in scattered fashion. It was estimated that even fractionally higher economic growth could add 3.5 billion pounds to ethylene demand in the USA in the year 2005. 15 figs

  9. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  10. Natural gas supply-demand situation and prospect in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Kang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Since the 21st century, the reserves of conventional natural gas as well as tight gas in China have been decreasing and their annual production growth rates have been generally reduced from double-digit to one-digit number of percentage. It is predicted that natural gas production will possibly reach up to 134 billion m3 in 2015; and if the marketable rate is 90%, the gas supply volume will probably be 120.6 billion m3 in 2015. Since shale gas development just has started currently, about 0.6 billion m3 of the marketable shale gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. The CBM gas production especially such gas consumption has long been lagged behind the expected targets, and what's more, flaws exist in their statistics; on this basis, it is assumed that the marketable CBM gas will be 4 billion Nm 3 in 2015. With so many achievements made in the coal gas exploitation, it is forecasted that about 5.5 billion m3 coal gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. In total, the domestic fuel gas supply is roughly estimated to be 131 billion m3 in 2015; if the gas consumption in the year is presumably 231 billion m3, about 100 billion m3 gas will then be imported in 2015. From the presumable actual imports of piped gas and LNG terminals, there is still a gap of 27–30 billion m3 in 2015. Therefore, it is suggested that more LNG receiving terminals be put into production in advance and the increment of import gas be needed from Middle Asia. Also, it is proposed that the statistics be completed on the practical marketable fuel gas quantity in the fundamental study of energy planning in the National 13th Five-Year Plan. In conclusion, the economic system reform process is the key to the further development of oil and gas industry in China.

  11. Supply and demand of natural gas in the world and in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rissik, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Based on data from the July 1991 published report of the International Gas Union (IGU) committee Supply and Demand an overview is given of the expectations for the natural gas supply, with special attention to Western Europe and the late Soviet Union. Data are presented for natural gas reserves and natural gas supply and demand in Eastern Europe (mainly USSR), Western Europe, North America (USA and Canada), and reserves in the Middle East. The conclusions drawn concern mainly Western Europe. It appears that the natural gas supplies in the world are still very large and sufficient for decades. Western Europe however must rely on foreign reserves more and more, which will have an impact on the natural gas prices. The reserves in the Soviet Union (mainly Siberia and the Arctic area) will be of great importance to the West European countries. 6 figs., 4 ill

  12. Long term outlook for gas supply and demand 2007-2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-05-01

    Given the economic crisis and the even greater focus of energy policy in recent years on energy efficiency and renewables, earlier expectations in respect of gas demand have to be lowered. Nonetheless, there are still good prospects for gas expanding its position in the EU energy market in the medium to long term. Environmental friendliness and highly efficient technologies in all areas of energy supply give gas a key role in a realistic EU climate policy, the goals of which cannot be achieved solely through increased use of renewables. Its green qualities make gas attractive in direct utilisation in homes and businesses, in centralised power generation, in local CHP plant (including micro-CHP), and - in some member states - in the transport sector too. The current slump in demand is accompanied by strong supply pressure on European procurement markets. Experts do not predict that the present excess supply situation will continue in the long term. It is expected that imports to Europe will rise in order to compensate for the impending fall in domestic European production and to supply additional gas. The procurement challenge cannot be considered in isolation from global developments. The increasing demand for gas worldwide will intensify the competition for global gas reserves on international markets. The European gas industry emphasises the importance of fostering long-term relationships with major suppliers, transit countries and key partners in the EU as well as with multilateral organisations and structures.

  13. Natural gas participation on brazilian demand supply of liquefied petroleum gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freitas Rachid, L.B. de

    1991-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids Production, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) among them, has undergone a continuous growth and technological development until the first half of the eighties. This paper presents the natural gas processing activity development in Brazil, in the last 20 years, and the increasing share of LPG produced from natural gas in the supply of LPG domestic market. Possibilities of achieving greater shares are discussed, based on economics of natural gas processing projects. Worldwide gas processing installed capacity and LPG pricing tendencies, and their influence in the construction of new Natural Gas Processing Units in Brazil, are also discussed. (author)

  14. World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, Noureddine

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

  15. An emerging economic view of world natural gas demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorsett, W.H.; Ackerman, G.B.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas is swiftly moving from a locally traded commodity in regional markets to a globally traded commodity. This paper describes a numerical model of international gas trade which evaluates the effects of inter- and intra-regional gas trade on demand, supply and price. Preliminary evidence indicates natural gas prices are 15 to 30% lower in real terms when inter-regional trade occurs and local consumption of natural gas increases relative to fuel oil in the local market. Natural gas developers or marketers that explicitly consider the inter-regional impacts of gas trade will have a greater likelihood of understanding the risks in marginal projects and are more likely to embrace economic projects and eschew noneconomic projects

  16. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  17. European future natural gas demand and supply diversification: key issues for Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Elschner, E.

    1996-01-01

    policy and the activities of the ECE as well as the promoters of the Energy Charter are fostering this process. (3) All European gas industries, in addition, are confronted with the following challenges: to meet the growing gas demand by securing additional gas supplies; to build new pipelines and storage facilities; to diversify gas supplies (eastern and central European countries); to optimize diversification of gas supplies (Western European countries); to interconnect pipeline grids and to strengthen security of supply, as the dominating goal of the whole European gas business

  18. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year AD 2010 for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  19. Enron sees major increases in U.S. gas supply, demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.; Stram, B.

    1991-01-01

    Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case

  20. Analysis of GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesbitt, D.M.; Singh, J.; Pine, G.D.; Kline, D.; Barron, M.; Cheung, P.D.

    1989-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results from the GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model using the four scenarios defined for the Energy Modeling Forum Number 9 (EMF-9) described in EMF-9 Working Paper 9.4 (1987). The analysis is designed both to showcase the GRI North American Regional model as well as to infer meaningful results about the North American natural gas system. The focus of the analysis is not R ampersand D per se; R ampersand D analysis using the model is conducted regularly by GRI and described elsewhere. Rather, the objective is to analyze some of the major uncertainties in the North American gas market, uncertainties that potentially affect all players including GRI. In particular, the authors seek to quantify the overall economic environment in which production, transmission, distribution, consumption, and R ampersand D decisions will be made and how different that overall environment might be under alternative assumptions. An attendant objective of this analysis has been to enlist economists from a range of organizations (producers, regulators, GRI, and consultants) to carefully scrutinize the GRI North American Regional model and results. In particular, the coauthors were assembled from diverse organizations to review and evaluate model outputs, applying their particular experience and perspective. The four EMF-9 scenarios upon which this paper is based are described in detail later in this document. Briefly, scenario one represents a world with a surfeit of gas and a relatively high oil price projection; scenario two considers a lower oil price forecast; scenario three assumes a pessimistic outlook for the gas resource base with the same oil prices as scenario one; and scenario four examines a higher level of demand for gas in the North American gas market. An important objective of this analysis is to illustrate the predictive power of multi-scenario comparisons (as contrasted with detailed analysis of any individual scenario)

  1. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  2. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C. [University of Moratuwa (Sri Lanka). Centre for Energy Studies; Fernando, W.J.L.S. [Sri Lanka Energy Managers Association, Colombo (Sri Lanka); Shrestha, R.M. [Asian Inst. of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). Energy Program

    2003-12-01

    Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures. This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO{sub 2} mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka. (author)

  3. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  4. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  5. A supply demand model for exploration of the future of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; Van Daalen, C.

    2013-01-01

    Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the

  6. Will the supply meet the demand? The future of the natural gas liquids market in the WCSB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.

    2004-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) price influences were reviewed in this presentation, as well as issues concerning North American propane demand and waterborne imports. A review of U.S. propane stocks was provided as well as regional temperature outlooks for 2004-2005. A cracking feedstock parity forecast was presented, as well as United States gross gas plant margins and propane prices to July 2005. Canadian propane inventories and prices were reviewed. A propane supply and demand forecast to 2020 was presented. Alberta's natural gas supply and intra-Alberta oil sand gas demand growth were discussed. Various market uncertainties include higher levels of activity; the potential of petroleum prices falling due to a reduction of geopolitical risk; the possibility of a U.S. recession; and the growth of Alberta's oil sands industry, with resulting demand for natural gas. It was concluded that the NGL market in North America will continue to be balanced, with waterborne imports becoming more critical. It was suggested that inventories are adequate for the expected winter season. It was also suggested that Canadian NGL supplies are expected to decline, and that prices are expected to soften in the spring of 2005, with falling natural gas and crude oil prices. refs., tabs., figs

  7. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  8. Natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-10-01

    This article comments data about the share of natural gas in the energy demand in Europe, about the uses of natural gas by different sectors (housing and office buildings, electricity production, and industry) in Europe, and about gas European imports and about gas supply origins. Graphs are displaying the evolution of energy demand in some European countries between 1990 and 2006 and for different energy sources (natural gas, coal, oil, primary energy, and renewable energies), the evolution of gas production and consumption in different countries of the European Union between 1990 and 2006, and gas import origins in the European Union in 2006. Gas pipeline projects between gas producing countries and Europe are briefly presented, and the development of liquefied natural gas is briefly commented and outlined as a contribution to supply diversification

  9. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  10. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  11. Structural shift in global natural gas markets: Demand boom in Asia, supply shock in the US

    OpenAIRE

    Holz, Franziska; Richter, Philipp M.; von Hirschhausen, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The significance of natural gas is on the rise due to the restructuring and decarbonization of energy systems worldwide. Natural gas is widely available and flexible as it can be used in electricity generation, manufacturing, transport, and private households. Compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas produces relatively low carbon dioxide emissions during combustion. For this reason, the natural gas sector also has an important supportive role to play when it comes to the European energy t...

  12. Securing Supply and Demand: Natural Gas Pipelines and the Europe-Russia Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Challenge,” The National Interest, issue 88 (Mar/Apr 2007): 50. 2 Guy Chazan, “New Route to Europe Cleared For Natural Gas From Russia,” Wall Street Journal Eastern...to Double Capacity of Gas Pipeline,” The Wall Street Journal (Eastern Edition), 16 May 2009, A6. 34 Evans-Pritchard, “Europe Breaks Free from...http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13518040802313746. Chazan, Guy. “New Route to Europe Cleared For Natural Gas From Russia,” Wall Street Journal Eastern

  13. View of the LP gas supply/demand in Asia and a survey of the Middle East trend; Asia no LP gas jukyu tenbo to Chuto doko chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    A study was made on the LP gas supply/demand in Asia including an outlook for 2000. Eleven countries in Asia including NIES countries, ASEAN countries, China and India have been continuing their rapid growth of economy and have rapidly been increasing their energy consumption. There, LP gas spreads as a home use fuel, and countries excluding some LP gas producing countries depend considerably upon the import from the Middle East. The LP gas consumption quantity is steadily increasing in China and India having huge population, etc., and dependence of LP gas is increasing upon LP gas producing countries of the Middle East. Nevertheless, in the Middle East, the domestic consumption of LP gas, mostly butane, is increasing. Namely, butane is used as raw material of MTBE, and LP gas as that of petroleum chemicals. The Middle East has a lot of plant projects of a sizable size in the future, which predicts that LP gas export from LP gas producing countries of the Middle East is decreasing. 2 refs., 62 figs., 57 tabs.

  14. Oil and gas. Gas supply under pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.

    2008-01-01

    The latest review of natural gas markets from the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a picture of growing demand in the face of rising prices, a strengthening link between gas and electricity markets, and a globalising influence from increasingly flexible LNG supplies. But there are growing signs that security of supply is under threat from underinvestment, delays and cost escalation

  15. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2006-01-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  16. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  17. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  18. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  19. Demand-type gas supply system for rocket borne thin-window proportional counters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acton, L. W.; Caravalho, R.; Catura, R. C.; Joki, E. G.

    1977-01-01

    A simple closed loop control system has been developed to maintain the gas pressure in thin-window proportional counters during rocket flights. This system permits convenient external control of detector pressure and system flushing rate. The control system is activated at launch with the sealing of a reference volume at the existing system pressure. Inflight control to plus or minus 2 torr at a working pressure of 760 torr has been achieved on six rocket flights.

  20. FGD [flue gas desulfurization] gypsum in the United Germany: Trends of demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stein, V.

    1991-01-01

    1990 was the first year in which all flue gas desulfurization (FGD) units in West Germany suplied the gypsum industry in Germany and some other European countries with FGD-gypsum. The effect on the gypsum market was not as significant as anticipated, mainly due to wrong estimates based on the most conservative conditions assumed by the power stations in their applications for permission. These estimates generally assumed high sulfur coal at full load throughout the year, whereas most West German boilers fire low sulfur coal and run only at peak times, resulting in much less FGD gypsum on the market than the German gypsum industry had been prepared to use. The unification of Germany has changed the situation of the gypsum industry dramatically. Reserves of natural gypsum in the middle of Germany are now much more accessible, and a great number of lignite-fired power stations must be fitted with FGD equipment as soon as possible. At the same time, the market for gypsum building products will improve dramatically due to the poor condition of many buildings in east Germany, which will require rehabilitation. These circumstances imply a bright future for both natural and FGD-based gypsum in Germany. 8 refs., 5 figs

  1. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  2. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  3. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  5. Natural Gas as Petroleum Fuel Substitution: Analysis of Supply-Demand Projections, Infrastructures, Investments and End-User Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Tjandranegara

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The petroleum fuels (PF subsidy has long burdens the government spending, and discourages less expensive energy usage such as natural gas (NG. Exporting NG and importing the more expensive PF products cause financial losses to Indonesia. The lack of NG infrastructure is the main hurdle in maximizing domestic NG usage and so does the perception of its high investment costs burdening government spending and pushing the NG transportation cost up. This study calculates the required NG infrastructure and its investments for several levels of PF substitutions up to 2030. To balance the NG demands, the supply from each field and its corresponding infrastructures needed was calculated and optimized using non-linear programming with generalized reduced gradient  method to calculate the lowest transportation cost for the consumers. The study shows with a favorable return on investments attractive to private investors, the NG prices can still be put much lower than PF prices, allowing subsidy, import and production cost savings in many sectors. Furthermore, the highest level of substitution scenario needs only US$ 2.07 billion a year investment, very low compare to the current US$ 14.17 billion a year PF and electricity subsidy.

  6. Balancing supply and demand resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models

  7. EIA projections of coal supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

  8. Natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having briefly commented the share of natural gas in the primary consumed energy in Europe and in France, and the reasons for its evolution, this document highlights that gas is mainly used for heating, electricity production and industrial purposes, that Europe possesses limited gas resources and must therefore rely on importations. It comments the diversification of supply sources, evokes new gas-pipeline projects between Europe and producer countries (mainly Russia), and briefly comments the development of liquefied natural gas

  9. The anaesthesia gas supply system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabyasachi Das

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The anaesthesia gas supply system is designed to provide a safe, cost-effective and convenient system for the delivery of medical gases at the point of-use. The doctrine of the anaesthesia gas supply system is based on four essential principles: Identity, continuity, adequacy and quality. Knowledge about gas supply system is an integral component of safe anaesthetic practice. Mishaps involving the malfunction or misuse of medical gas supply to operating theatres have cost many lives. The medical gases used in anaesthesia and intensive care are oxygen, nitrous oxide, medical air, entonox, carbon dioxide and heliox. Oxygen is one of the most widely used gases for life-support and respiratory therapy besides anaesthetic procedures. In this article, an effort is made to describe the production, storage and delivery of anaesthetic gases. The design of anaesthesia equipment must take into account the local conditions such as climate, demand and power supply. The operational policy of the gas supply system should have a backup plan to cater to the emergency need of the hospital, in the event of the loss of the primary source of supply.

  10. Canadian gas supply : an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochefort, T.

    1998-01-01

    An overview of the daily production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) from 1986 to 1997 was presented. This presentation also outlined Canadian production trends, Canadian reserves and resources, and supply challenges. Ultimate conventional marketable gas from the WCSB, the Scotian Shelf, the Beaufort Sea and Canada's Arctic region was estimated at 591 TCF. Issues regarding supply and demand of natural gas such as the impact of electricity restructuring on pricing, generation fuel mix, the capacity of the U.S. market to absorb Canadian heavy oil production, and the influence of the rate of technological advances on supply and demand were outlined. The overall conclusion confirmed the health and competitiveness of the Canadian upstream sector and expressed confidence that the WCSB can support rising levels of production to meet the expected continued market growth. tabs., figs

  11. World uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    The role of nuclear energy is under increasing scrutiny and uncertainty. None the less, there will be an increasing need for expansion of uranium supply to fuel committed reactors. Longer-term demand projections are very uncertain. Improved knowledge of the extent of world resources and their availability and economics is needed to support planning for reactor development, especially for breeder reactors, and for fuel-cycle development, especially enrichment, and reprocessing and recycle of uranium and plutonium. Efforts to date to estimate world uranium resources have been very useful but have largely reflected the state of available knowledge for the lower cost resources in regions that have received considerable exploration efforts. The IUREP evaluation of world resources provides an initial speculative estimate of world resources, including areas not previously appraised. Projections of long-range supply from the estimated resources suggest that the high-growth nuclear cases using once-through cycle may not be supportable for very long. However, additional effort is needed to appraise and report more completely and consistently on world resources, the production levels attainable from these resources, and the economic and price characteristics of such production. (author)

  12. Natural gas demand prospects in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young-Jin Kwon

    1997-01-01

    Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs

  13. Natural gas supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chegrouche, L.

    1992-01-01

    The geopolitical events over the last two years are such that the present natural gas supply schemes risk being overthrown. Recourse, to satisfy future European demands, to additional volumes coming from outlying sources will inevitably force the actors to define new strategies and to reconsider the reorganization of the transmission system' structure. Besides, the use of their capacities is closely bound to supply flexibility. At the same time, the saturation of the production and transmission capacities within the nearby outkirts combined with the purchasers' resolve to diversify their supply sources will undoubtedly shift the dynamics of the natural gas supply to potential sources and their access costs before the end of the century. 24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs., 4 maps

  14. Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Woon Gyu Choi; Seonghwan Oh

    2000-01-01

    This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is subs...

  15. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  16. The balance of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darmayan, P.

    1981-01-01

    The Supply and Demand Committee of the Uranium Institute was established to monitor continuously information and developments bearing on the uranium market and to publish from time to time reports giving its views on the supply and demand outlook. The last Uranium Institute supply and demand report was compiled at the beginning of 1979. Its main conclusions were that from 1979 to 1990 the flexibilities of the market were such as to offer adequate scope to producers and consumers of uranium to ensure a balance between supply and demand. Is that conclusion still valid one and a half years later. Some of the Supply and Demand Committee's more recent estimates are reported under the headings: reactor orders and cancellations; revised Institute forecasts of nuclear capacity; uranium supply; main implications of the new forecasts. (U.K.)

  17. Northern entanglement : Arctic gas pipeline plans caught in web of competing interests, but dire supply-demand forecasts indicate line will be built

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stonehouse, D.

    2005-01-01

    This article discussed land access and regulatory issues surrounding decisions to stop field work of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline in the spring of 2005. Although current supply and demand balances in natural gas markets argue that the pipeline will be beneficial, Imperial Oil and its partners have halted activities such as geotechnical data-gathering programs and preparatory work on contracting construction. The project's future depends on the successful resolution of First Nations land claims, governmental disputes and various activist groups protesting the pipeline's construction. Imperial Oil has suggested that the pipeline presents a significant opportunity for the people of the North to reduce their reliance on government and will create jobs and business opportunities for Aboriginal people. In the aftermath of work stoppage, Alberta's former Energy Minister stated that imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Alaska gas from the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline Project may arrive on the market in advance of the Mackenzie Valley project, which would affect the project's financial future. It was noted that access and benefits agreements with First Nations stakeholders have yet to be reached. Lawsuits involving the Deh Cho First Nations were examined. It was also suggested that Imperial Oil has not included information on the Alberta portion of the project in its environmental impact assessment. It was concluded that if the Mackenzie Delta line isn't in service by 2010, North American consumers can expect to spend an extra $190 billion on gas from 2011 to 2020. 3 figs

  18. North American pipelines supply/demand update: challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopal, J.

    2002-01-01

    The author began the presentation by providing a little definition of forecasting supply, demand and price as applied to the natural gas industry, indicating that it is both science and art. An integrated grid in North America, the natural gas sector modeling relates to supply basins, demand centers and pipes includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Some of the considerations are: huge demand from proposed power generation, conservation, and drilling impacts, as well as pipeline capacity. A chart displaying the North American model was explained. The author discussed the technically recoverable natural gas resources as well as the estimates in both Canada and the United States. The next section deals with exploration and development of frontier resources and power plant licensing, with emphasis on power plants in California. The generation assumptions for the Western Systems Coordinating Council from the Energy Commission are reviewed, placing the numbers in their proper perspective. California natural gas supply by source is examined, followed by regional natural gas spot price. The wellhead natural gas prices for North America and for the Lower 48 states are presented. The author indicates that additional pipeline capacity is required to meet the growing demand. Several factors have to be considered: the number of power plants, when and where; pipeline capacity (how much); regulations; slack capacity; cost of slack capacity, and supply. The concluding remarks touched upon the availability of gas resources, the environmental issues that affect demand, hub services that enhance service flexibility and reliability, and pipeline capacity and storage. 2 tabs., 15 figs

  19. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  20. The importance of flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market - The Brazilian case; A importancia da flexibilidade na oferta e na demanda de gas natural - o caso do mercado brasileiro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Jose Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti

    2008-05-15

    The objective of this dissertation is to identify and discuss the main tools in implementing flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market, as well as highlight those which are the most appropriate for the Brazilian market. Flexibility, in this context, means the ability to guarantee a balance of supply versus demand without deficits, considering, mainly, the seasonal variations (winter-summer). From there, the study analyzes these flexibility tools in detail. Next, it discusses which of these flexibility tools are currently being used in more mature foreign markets and which tools could be feasibly applied to the Brazilian market. This dissertation also addresses how the natural gas thermoelectric market in Brazil shows a wide range of seasonality due to this segment's nature of complementing the Brazilian hydroelectric complex. This occurs because the capacity to generate hydroelectricity depends on rainfall for supplying reservoirs. Because of this interdependence, it examines how each the natural gas industry and the power industry operate, and their convergence. The flexibility tools which are already implemented here in Brazil are then presented. Finally, additional relevant new concepts and information are discussed to support the conclusions and final comments about the flexibility tools evolution and new applications. (author)

  1. Global sustainable timber supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince

    2010-01-01

    Industrial timber use has provided timber revenue that has helped make timber supply and demand more sustainable in the leading timber producing regions of the world. Sustainable development implies not consuming more resources today than we can replace tomorrow, but sustainable forest management implies more than merely a non-declining supply of timber. Forests as a...

  2. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  3. Optimal transport on supply-demand networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Han; Wang, Bing-Hong; Zhao, Li-Chao; Zhou, Changsong; Zhou, Tao

    2010-06-01

    In the literature, transport networks are usually treated as homogeneous networks, that is, every node has the same function, simultaneously providing and requiring resources. However, some real networks, such as power grids and supply chain networks, show a far different scenario in which nodes are classified into two categories: supply nodes provide some kinds of services, while demand nodes require them. In this paper, we propose a general transport model for these supply-demand networks, associated with a criterion to quantify their transport capacities. In a supply-demand network with heterogeneous degree distribution, its transport capacity strongly depends on the locations of supply nodes. We therefore design a simulated annealing algorithm to find the near optimal configuration of supply nodes, which remarkably enhances the transport capacity compared with a random configuration and outperforms the degree target algorithm, the betweenness target algorithm, and the greedy method. This work provides a start point for systematically analyzing and optimizing transport dynamics on supply-demand networks.

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  5. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  6. Outlook for Noth American natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuuskraa, V.A.

    1995-01-01

    The underlying resource base for North America natural gas is large, sufficient for nearly 100 years of current consumption. As such, the issues are not the size of the resource, but how to convert this resource into economically competitive supply. The key questions are: Will the cost (price) of natural gas remain competitive? What is the status of near-term deliverability? Will there be enough supply to meet growing demand? These economic and market issues frame the outlook for gas supplies in North America. Most importantly, they will determine how natural gas emerges from its competition for markets with other fuels and electricity. The paper addresses these questions by examining: (1) the underlying nature of the natural gas resource base; (2) the current status and trends in deliverability; and, (3) the potential of new technologies for producing gas more cost-effectively. (author)

  7. Vaccine supply, demand, and policy: a primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzumdar, Jagannath M; Cline, Richard R

    2009-01-01

    To provide an overview of supply and demand issues in the vaccine industry and the policy options that have been implemented to resolve these issues. Medline, Policy File, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts were searched to locate academic journal articles. Other sources reviewed included texts on the topics of vaccine history and policy, government agency reports, and reports from independent think tanks. Keywords included vaccines, immunizations, supply, demand, and policy. Search criteria were limited to English language and human studies. Articles pertaining to vaccine demand, supply, and public policy were selected and reviewed for inclusion. By the authors. Vaccines are biologic medications, therefore making their development and production more difficult and costly compared with "small-molecule" drugs. Research and development costs for vaccines can exceed $800 million, and development may require 10 years or more. Strict manufacturing regulations and facility upgrades add to these costs. Policy options to increase and stabilize the supply of vaccines include those aimed at increasing supply, such as government subsidies for basic vaccine research, liability protection for manufacturers, and fast-track approval for new vaccines. Options to increase vaccine demand include advance purchase commitments, government stockpiles, and government financing for select populations. High development costs and multiple barriers to entry have led to a decline in the number of vaccine manufacturers. Although a number of vaccine policies have met with mixed success in increasing the supply of and demand for vaccines, a variety of concerns remain, including developing vaccines for complex pathogens and increasing immunization rates with available vaccines. New policy innovations such as advance market commitments and Medicare Part D vaccine coverage have been implemented and may aid in resolving some of the problems in the vaccine industry.

  8. Electorally unstable by supply or demand?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bischoff, Carina Saxlund

    2013-01-01

    , it is argued and demonstrated that strategic voting plays an independent role in inducing vote switching. Secondly, the analysis shows that demand-side factors—such as socio-economic cleavages and organizations—do not predict voter stability, whereas supply-side factors—such as the party system, government...

  9. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  10. The alchemy of demand response: turning demand into supply

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rochlin, Cliff

    2009-11-15

    Paying customers to refrain from purchasing products they want seems to run counter to the normal operation of markets. Demand response should be interpreted not as a supply-side resource but as a secondary market that attempts to correct the misallocation of electricity among electric users caused by regulated average rate tariffs. In a world with costless metering, the DR solution results in inefficiency as measured by deadweight losses. (author)

  11. Demand powers ahead [Gas in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, N.

    1994-01-01

    Natural gas demand in Europe has been growing steadily for many years and is likely to go on increasing in the domestic sector, the industrial sector and in power generation. In this review a number of features of the market supply situation are reported. Potential new markets for Norwegian gas in eastern and central Europe are being evaluated. Other exporting countries are also keen to obtain a greater share in the expanding European market. Among them are Russia, Algeria and Nigeria, but political uncertainties in each of these countries are a cause for concern. Algeria has new pipelines to supply Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Russian company, Gazprom, has launched the construction of a pipeline to link new gas fields in northern Siberia with western Europe and has set up contracts with German companies which are facilitating the sale of Russian gas in Europe. Supply potential also exists in some of the other countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. A group of leading European gas utilities are exploring the feasibility of imports from Iran either via a pipeline link or as liquefied natural gas. The United Kingdom hopes to export North Sea gas into Europe through the proposed Interconnector pipeline from Bacton to Zeebrugge, in th long-term, though, the pipeline may be used for imports into the UK. A controversial proposal to introduce third-party access to European pipelines could alter the whole structure of the market. (UK)

  12. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

  13. [Supply and demand in home health care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Patrícia Pinto; de Sena, Roseni Rosângela; Seixas, Clarissa Terenzi; de Castro, Edna Aparecida Barbosa; Andrade, Angélica Mônica; Silva, Yara Cardoso

    2016-03-01

    The changes in the demographic and epidemiologic profiles of the Brazilian population and the need to rethink the health care model have led many countries like Brazil to consider Home Care (HC) as a care strategy. However, there is a gap between the supply of HC services, the demand for care and the health needs manifested by the population. Thus, this article analyzes scientific output regarding the status of the relation between supply, demand and the needs related to home health care. This work is based on an integrative review of the literature in the following databases: Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Latin America and the Caribbean Literature on Health and Science (Lilacs), Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline) and Web of Science. Despite the fact that few articles refer to the issue in question, there is evidence indicating that health demands and needs are seldom taken into account either in a quantitative or qualitative approach when developing the organization of HC services. The analysis would indicate that there is a national and international deficit in the supply of HC services considering the demand for health care and needs currently prevailing.

  14. Anaesthesia Gas Supply: Gas Cylinders

    OpenAIRE

    Srivastava, Uma

    2013-01-01

    Invention of oxygen cylinder was one of the most important developments in the field of medical practice. Oxygen and other gases were compressed and stored at high pressure in seamless containers constructed from hand-forged steel in1880. Materials technology has continued to evolve and now medical gas cylinders are generally made of steel alloys or aluminum. The filling pressure as well as capacity has increased considerably while at the same time the weight of cylinders has reduced. Today o...

  15. Role of stranded gas in increasing global gas supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    This report synthesizes the findings of three regional studies in order to evaluate, at the global scale, the contribution that stranded gas resources can make to global natural gas supplies. Stranded gas, as defined for this study, is natural gas in discovered conventional gas and oil fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. The regional studies evaluated the cost of bringing the large volumes of undeveloped gas in stranded gas fields to selected markets. In particular, stranded gas fields of selected Atlantic Basin countries, north Africa, Russia, and central Asia are screened to determine whether the volumes are sufficient to meet Europe’s increasing demand for gas imports. Stranded gas fields in Russia, central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia are also screened to estimate development, production, and transport costs and corresponding gas volumes that could be supplied to Asian markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The data and cost analysis presented here suggest that for the European market and the markets examined in Asia, the development of stranded gas provides a way to meet projected gas import demands for the 2020-to-2040 period. Although this is a reconnaissance-type appraisal, it is based on volumes of gas that are associated with individual identified fields. Individual field data were carefully examined. Some fields were not evaluated because current technology was insufficient or it appeared the gas was likely to be held off the export market. Most of the evaluated stranded gas can be produced and delivered to markets at costs comparable to historical prices. Moreover, the associated volumes of gas are sufficient to provide an interim supply while additional technologies are developed to unlock gas diffused in shale and hydrates or while countries transition to making a greater use of renewable energy sources.

  16. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  17. Anaesthesia gas supply: gas cylinders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Uma

    2013-09-01

    Invention of oxygen cylinder was one of the most important developments in the field of medical practice. Oxygen and other gases were compressed and stored at high pressure in seamless containers constructed from hand-forged steel in1880. Materials technology has continued to evolve and now medical gas cylinders are generally made of steel alloys or aluminum. The filling pressure as well as capacity has increased considerably while at the same time the weight of cylinders has reduced. Today oxygen cylinder of equivalent size holds a third more oxygen but weighs about 20 kg less. The cylinders are of varying sizes and are color coded. They are tested at regular intervals by the manufacturer using hydraulic, impact, and tensile tests. The top end of the cylinder is fitted with a valve with a variety of number and markings stamped on it. Common valve types include: Pin index valve, bull nose, hand wheel and integral valve. The type of valve varies with cylinder size. Small cylinders have a pin index valve while large have a bull nose type. Safety features in the cylinder are: Color coding, pin index, pressure relief device, Bodok seal, and label attached etc., Safety rules and guidelines must be followed during storage, installation and use of cylinders to ensure safety of patients, hospital personnel and the environment.

  18. Anaesthesia gas supply: Gas cylinders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uma Srivastava

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Invention of oxygen cylinder was one of the most important developments in the field of medical practice. Oxygen and other gases were compressed and stored at high pressure in seamless containers constructed from hand-forged steel in1880. Materials technology has continued to evolve and now medical gas cylinders are generally made of steel alloys or aluminum. The filling pressure as well as capacity has increased considerably while at the same time the weight of cylinders has reduced. Today oxygen cylinder of equivalent size holds a third more oxygen but weighs about 20 kg less. The cylinders are of varying sizes and are color coded. They are tested at regular intervals by the manufacturer using hydraulic, impact, and tensile tests. The top end of the cylinder is fitted with a valve with a variety of number and markings stamped on it. Common valve types include: Pin index valve, bull nose, hand wheel and integral valve. The type of valve varies with cylinder size. Small cylinders have a pin index valve while large have a bull nose type. Safety features in the cylinder are: Color coding, pin index, pressure relief device, Bodok seal, and label attached etc., Safety rules and guidelines must be followed during storage, installation and use of cylinders to ensure safety of patients, hospital personnel and the environment.

  19. Gas supply device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Tokihiro.

    1986-01-01

    Purpose: When injecting gas during plasma discharge, to prevent erronous operation of the piezoelectric valves due to vibrations and to inject gas into the vacuum vessel by accurately controlling gas flow. Constitution: The piezoelectric valve designed to control the flow of gas when charging vacuum vessels is installed between the vacuum vessel and the gas cylinder and a pulse voltage generator to control the valve (open/close) and the reverse voltage generator to apply a reverse current to the valve element are also provided. When a voltage is applied to the piezoelectric element, the piezoelectric element bends. However, when the polarity is changed, the direction of the bend is also reversed. The seat portion is pressed in proportion to the degree of bending. When gas is injected while plasma is being discharged, the gap created, due to vibrations, between the piezoelectric element and the sealing material is prevented by the application of a reverse current. This allows precise control of the gas injection volume as well as the injection interval. This assures maintenance of precise test conditions when testing thermonuclear devices. (Horiuchi, T.)

  20. North American demand and supply dynamics - implications for pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, R.

    1998-01-01

    Key issues regarding the natural gas industry and the long-term outlook for North American supply and demand for natural gas were discussed. The North American market was characterized as not a mature market, meaning that demand will continue to increase in the coming years. It was confidently predicted that supplies will be available for development at reasonable costs. However, real prices will slowly increase over time. Short-term fundamentals, expectations and pricing outlook were also discussed. The influence of upstream activity levels, the health of the economy, weather and storage were all identified as factors that will impact on short-term price expectations. According to this author a minor increase in price may be expected during the winter of 1998/1999. tabs., figs

  1. Visualising the Global Shift in Energy Demand and Supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Isma'il

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The global energy demand depends on supplies from fossil fuels responsible for climate change. The supply of the fossil fuels required to meet the global energy demand depends on production from the available proved reserves of oil, coal and gas unevenly distributed around the world. On the other hand, the energy demand of a country is determined by its economic growth and population dynamics. The industrialised nations accounted for the rising demand in global primary energy. However, a global shift is underway with the developing economies being responsible for most of the increase in global energy demand. Moreover, statistics suggest that the global energy production and consumption vary spatially and temporally. This study utilised cartograms to visualise the global shift in production and consumption of fossil fuels; because of its implication on global energy security and climate change. We observed that cartograms which are rarely used in energy visualisations provide informative and intuitive picture of the global shift in energy demand and supply.

  2. Electricity demand and supply to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertel, E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper will attempt to make projections of energy and electricity demand, and the possible share of nuclear generation in global supply, up to 2020. This horizon has been chosen because the long lead times prevailing in the energy sector imply long-term planning, even though the degree of uncertainty is quite large when looking several decades ahead. Electricity demand, as well as primary energy consumption, depends on many technical and economic factors, obviously including demography. Using statistical data for past decades, it is possible to quantify by econometric methods and the links between energy and electricity consumption and economic parameters. The models defined may then be used to make projections of future electricity consumption. The share of nuclear electricity in primary energy supply can be estimated by taking into account the various constraints and lead times limiting the deployment of nuclear generating capacity, and the shares of other energy sources in electricity generation in each country or region. It should be emphasized that the scenarios presented below are illustrative, and are not forecasts of future energy and electricity demand. Because of the method adopted and the assumptions made, the scenarios reflect a 'conventional wisdom'. However, they do incorporate concerns for environmental protection and improvements regarding energy efficiency. (author)

  3. Panorama 2007: Oil Supply and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2007-01-01

    A new paradigm is gradually developing on the world oil market. Under extreme pressure from growing demand in emerging countries, the supply side is progressively adjusting. As the market stabilizes, prices are seeking their equilibrium. Although the WTI seems to be finding its level at about USD 60 per barrel, it is still too soon to take this price quotation as a reference. Due to the inertia in behaviours, the effects of recent trends are not all visible yet and adjustments are still underway. In this uncertain business environment, key market players have not yet finalized their strategies. (author)

  4. Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

    1997-01-01

    Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

  5. Demand and supply of wood fuels in the emission trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranta, T.; Lahtinen, P.; Laitila, J.

    2005-01-01

    The emission trade according to the EU directive on greenhouse gas emission allowance started at the beginning of the year 2005. This will boost the demand for wood fuels because of the addition-al value of CO 2 neutrality compared to fossil fuels. This bulletin covers the development of the demand and supply of wood fuels from 2002 to 2010 both at a national and a provincial level. The demand and supply balance of wood fuels will be evaluated both without the effect of emission trade and when the emission trade price level is 20 euro/ton- CO 2 for emission rights in 2010. The evaluations of fuel consumption for individual boilers were made with the help of the databases of Electrowatt-Ekono Ltd. The demand for wood fuels was estimated to double by the year 2010, being almost 50 TWh. The share of forest chips of the demand was one third, i.e. 17 TWh. The supply potential was divided into forest chips and solid by-products from forest industry. Forest chip sources included small diameter wood from young forests and logging residues and stumps from re-generation felling sites. The supply potential calculations of logging residues and stump biomass were based on databases of regeneration felling stands. The biomass potential from small diamreter wood was evaluated on the basis of field measurements of NFI 8 and 9 at a provincial level and multi-source data at a municipal level. In 2010, the supply potential of by-products was estimated to be 28 TWh of which 11 TWh was marketable out-side of the internal use of forest industry. Correspondingly, the theoretical potential of forest chips was estimated to be 51 TWh and the techno-economical potential 24 TWh. As a result of the regional optimization model, the energy use of wood fuels was 29 TWh, which was 59 % of the potential demand. In emission trade the demand was 33 TWh, which was 68 % of the potential demand. Regionally, the potential demand for wood fuels for energy use was higher than the supply in all provinces

  6. The prospects for Russian gas demand and exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, J.; Dobozi, I.; Maichel, G.; de Vries, R.

    1995-01-01

    Three contributions to the debate on the future of Russian internal gas demand and exports are presented. In the first, it is argued that Russia's domestic demand will continue to fall due to a combination of payment enforcement for large industrial enterprises and their closure arising from restructuring. Information on gas demand is difficult to interpret, but the most significant factor during 1993-94 was the non-payment of bills without supply disconnection. It is estimated that the falling internal demand will put Russia in the position by 2010 of being able roughly to double its exports to Europe compared with 1993. This could be at relatively low cost since the requirement for investment in production and transmission facilities will not be large. The second author examines economic factors that will decided the size of the Russian ''gas bubble''. Uncertainties in domestic demand open up a wide range of scenarios. The predictions of the first author are regarded as an extreme ''low demand case''. Factors which could increase demand are an anticipated turnaround in the Russian economy in the mid 1990s and the likelihood of energy intensive industries, in which gas would have a competitive advantage, remaining as the backbone of the economy. The third contribution discusses natural gas supply and demand forecasts for Western Europe and concludes that the completion of the Gamal-Europe project, completing a second gas supply line from Russia to Europe, is essential. (U.K.)

  7. Demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, C. J.; Tang, K.; Kelley, J. H.; Berger, B. J.

    1979-01-01

    Projections are made for the demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA. Industrial sectors considered are petroleum refining, ammonia synthesis, methanol production, isocyanate manufacture, edible oil processing, coal liquefaction, fuel cell electricity generation, and direct iron reduction. Presently, almost all the hydrogen required is produced by reforming of natural gas or petroleum fractions. Specific needs and emphases are recommended for future research and development to produce hydrogen from other sources to meet the requirements of these industrial sectors. The data and the recommendations summarized in this paper are based on the Workshop 'Supply and Demand of Hydrogen as Chemical Feedstock' held at the University of Houston on December 12-14, 1977.

  8. Helium supply demand in future years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laverick, C.

    1975-01-01

    Adequate helium will be available to the year 2000 AD to meet anticipated helium demands for present day applications and the development of new superconducting technologies of potential importance to the nation. It is almost certain that there will not be enough helium at acceptable financial and energy cost after the turn of the century to meet the needs of the many promising helium based technologies now under development. Serious consideration should be given to establishing priorities in development and application based upon their relative value to the country. In the first half of the next century, three ways of estimating helium demand lead to cumulative ranges of from 75 to 125 Gcf (economic study), 89 to 470 Gcf (projected national energy growth rates) and 154 to 328 Gcf (needs for new technologies). These needs contrast with estimated helium resources in natural gas after 2000 AD which may be as low as 10 or 126 Gcf depending upon how the federal helium program is managed and the nation's natural gas resources are utilized. The technological and financial return on a modest national investment in further helium storage and a rational long term helium program promises to be considerable

  9. BC gas takes new approach to gas supply optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawdery, J.; Swoveland, C.

    1992-01-01

    Wide-ranging changes have taken place in the US and Canada since the mid-1980s in the way that local gas distribution utilities and large industrial customers contract for their gas supplies. This paper reports that these changes have been brought about by open-access policies, the intent of which was to allow customers more latitude to make their gas purchase and transportation arrangements and to improve the access of shippers to available gas transmission capacity. The effects of the new open-access regime have been profound on both sides of the border. More than 70% of North American gas supplies are now sold under unbundled arrangements in which gas supply is contracted under separate commodity and transportation agreements. For local distribution utilities, the numbers of potential supply options have become extremely large. Analysis of these options has become increasingly complex with the need to take account of complicated contract provisions, a wider range of storage options and swap arrangements with other utilities, opportunities for some customers to purchase gas directly and uncertainty about future demand, prices and supplier reliability

  10. New developments affecting uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandklef, S.; Sellers, J.

    1988-01-01

    At the Uranium Institute's 1986 Symposium, a presentation on the Western world's uranium supply and demand situation summarized the results of a year long study on the uranium market. Unexpected events in 1986 - the Chernobyl accident and new international trade barriers established in the USA -were seen as capable of causing substantial disturbances in the market. However, in mid 1986 it was too soon to determine their precise impact. This paper provides an update on the uranium market with particular focus on the impact of three factors: Chernobyl, the US Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act which included an embargo against South African and Namibian uranium imports, and general uranium import restrictions in the USA. (author)

  11. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  12. Southwest British Columbia natural gas supply and deliverability: Discussion paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    A review is presented of energy in British Columbia, the role of natural gas, and options available to enhance gas supply security in the province's most densely populated area, the southwest. British Columbia has abundant natural gas supplies, and production exceeds domestic demand. In 1992, natural gas supplied ca 25% of total provincial end-use energy requirements, but this share is expected to rise to 30% by 2015. Although some say that the province's natural gas production and transmission system should serve only domestic needs, this would have significant negative impacts. Domestic gas supply policy allows gas consumers to contract their own supplies, but contract security is required. Provincial guidelines allow demand-side programs to compete with supply sources to ensure that the resource profile is achieved at least cost. In the southwest, natural gas demand is projected to increase from 189 PJ in 1991 to 262 PJ by 2005. Most gas supplied to this region comes from northeast British Columbia through pipelines that are generally fully contracted. Short-term deliverability can be a problem, especially in peak winter demand periods. The gas industry's contingency plans for shortages are outlined and alternatives to enhance deliverability to the southwest are assessed, including storage, expansion of the pipeline system, supply curtailment, and peaking supply contracts. Aspects of provincial natural gas planning are discussed, including security of supply and deliverability, economic and environmental impacts, consumer costs, safety, and the public interest. A least-cost option for enhancing deliverability (underground storage and an additional liquefied natural gas plant) is estimated to cost consumers $3.69/GJ over 20 years. 9 figs., 1 tab

  13. Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

  14. International performance indicators: gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    This study evaluates the performance of Australian's natural gas utilities against world best practice. In particular, it examines whether Australia's traded goods sector is disadvantaged by the performance of domestic infrastructure service industries. It reports on the operating efficiency of the natural gas industry using Data Envelopment Analysis. It concludes that the Australian gas industry as a whole is performing relatively well in term of operating efficiency and that its prices are comparable with prices in North America, once differences in consumption per customer are taken into consideration. Appendixes 1 and 2 provide a summary of the structure and regulation of the gas supply industry in Australia and selected overseas countries, while the Appendix 3 gives an econometric analysis of the relationships between consumption per customer and residential price-cost margins. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-07-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs

  16. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs

  17. Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

  18. Alternative supply specifications and estimates of regional supply and demand for stumpage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent P. Connaughton; David H. Jackson; Gerard A. Majerus

    1988-01-01

    Four plausible sets of stumpage supply and demand equations were developed and estimated; the demand equation was the same for each set, although the supply equation differed. The supply specifications varied from the model of regional excess demand in which National Forest harvest levels were assumed fixed to a more realistic model in which the harvest on the National...

  19. The balance of uranium supply and demand to 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.

    1980-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the following headings: lead times in the nuclear industry; short term flexibilities -impact on demand of changes in tails assay and effect on supply of changed operating characteristics; supply-demand balance (Uranium Institute methodology); installed nuclear capacity forecast; enrichment capacity forecast; uranium production projections; estimates of uranium supply and demand until 1990; the effect of stockpiling; recent influences on the supply and demand balance; the Harrisburg experience; the International Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE); the oil price spiral; conclusions. (U.K.)

  20. Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabalu, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region.

  1. Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally. Duncan

    1998-01-01

    In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

  2. Assessment of demand and supply of timber products in Benue ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines demand and supply of timber products in Benue State Nigeria with a view to highlighting the responsiveness of forest policy implementation. The scope of the study lies on plantation establishment targets and costs for 1999 to 2003, actual plantation establishment, timber supply and demand from ...

  3. Price transmission between supply and demand markets for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The theory of demand and supply implied a positive relationship, or price information transmission between the supply and demand markets for products. Using cointegration analysis and weekly data from week 37 in 2004 to week 26 in 2006, a long-run equilibrium relationship was investigated between the prices for the ...

  4. Growth in European gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    1993-01-01

    The last three decades witnessed mainly the development of gas pipeline systems as a result of major onshore and offshore gas strikes in the fifties and sixties as well as the increase in gas sales on market segments which has been previously cornered by oil and coal products. Power generation currently is an additional potential market for which the availability of adequate resources plays a major role

  5. A strategic model of European gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2005-01-01

    Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. This paper proposes a model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behavior of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). In the case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages, which is the most realistic scenario, this yields a market outcome with double marginalization, that is suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up, at the expense of the final customers. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe remain dominant (Norway, the Netherlands), although some lose market shares (Algeria, UK, and especially Russia). Traditional exports will be complemented in the future by overseas supplies of LNG from the Middle East, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago which are becoming competitive. The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks; we find that transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient but the capacity constraint is binding for many intra-EU trade relations. (Author)

  6. On the demand for natural gas in urban China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Yihua; Zheng, Xinye; Han, Yi

    2014-01-01

    Using a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during the period of 2006–2009, this study aims to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. Natural gas consumption is specified as a function of its own price; substitute prices; urban wages; and other supply, climate, and housing characteristics. Using a feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) technique, which controls for panel heteroskedasticity and panel correlation, we find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic when other covariates (e.g., the supply of natural gas pipeline and heating degree days) are controlled. In addition, there are large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions. There is a substantial income effect on demand for natural gas in southern China, whereas the northern regions are found to have a higher price effect. In addition, the substitution effect between coal and natural gas is significant in North China but is not significant in South China. These findings have several important policy implications for natural gas pricing and supply cost analysis in the context of China. - Highlights: • We estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. • We use a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during 2006–2009. • We use a feasible generalised least squares approach. • We find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic. • We find large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions

  7. The challenge of implementing green gas into the gas supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan

    2014-01-01

    In order to gain a more mature share in the future energy supply, green gas supply chains face some interesting challenges. The thesis addresses the question how future green gas systems may look like. Green gas supply chains, based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, have been studied. The

  8. Academic food-supply veterinarians: future demand and likely shortages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce Prince, J; Andrus, David M; Gwinner, Kevin

    2006-01-01

    The future demand for and potential shortages of food-supply veterinarians have been the subject of much concern. Using the Delphi forecasting method in a three-phase Web-based survey process, a panel of experts identified the trends and issues shaping the demand for and supply of academic food-animal veterinarians, then forecasted the likely future demand and shortages of food-supply veterinarians employed in academic institutions in the United States and Canada through 2016. The results indicate that there will be increasing future demand and persistent shortages of academic food-supply veterinarians unless current trends are countered with targeted, strategic action. The Delphi panel also evaluated the effectiveness of several strategies for reversing current trends and increasing the number of food-supply veterinarians entering into academic careers. Academic food-supply veterinarians are a key link in the system that produces food-supply veterinarians for all sectors (private practice, government service, etc.); shortages in the academic sector will amplify shortages wherever food-supply veterinarians are needed. Even fairly small shortages have significant public-health, food-safety, animal-welfare, and bio-security implications. Recent events demonstrate that in an increasingly interconnected global economic food supply system, national economies and public health are at risk unless an adequate supply of appropriately trained food-supply veterinarians is available to counter a wide variety of threats ranging from animal and zoonotic diseases to bioterrorism.

  9. Safety stock placement in supply chains with demand forecast updates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef Boulaksil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chains are exposed to many types of risks and it may not be obvious where to keep safety stocks in the supply chain to hedge against those risks, while maintaining a high customer service level. In this paper, we develop an approach to determine the safety stock levels in supply chain systems that face demand uncertainty. We model customer demand following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE. An extensive body of literature discusses the safety stock placement problem in supply chains, but most studies assume independent and identically distributed demand. Our approach is based on a simulation study in which mathematical models are solved in a rolling horizon setting. It allows determining the safety stock levels at each stage of the supply chain. Based on a numerical study, we find that a big portion of the safety stocks should be placed downstream in the supply chain to achieve a high customer service level.

  10. Germany's Energy Demand and Supply Until 2020: Implications for Germany's Foreign Energy Policy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stellmann, Lars

    2003-01-01

    .... Russia may not be available to provide the amount necessary. The gas situation is somewhat less urgent, as a supply shift will have to take place only after 2010, when the Norwegian and Dutch gas reserves cease to satisfy the export demand...

  11. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  12. Demand and Supply in Information Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Lizzie; Cronin, Blaise

    1988-01-01

    Describes the reduced employment opportunities for library and information science professionals in the United Kingdom as a result of financial constraints and restructuring in the public and private sectors. The need to train students in skills required by employers to meet employment demands is discussed. (40 references) (CLB)

  13. A new technology aimed at re-establishing a global sulphur supply/demand balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavens, A.F.; Jorgensen, C.; Ogg, D.

    2009-01-01

    The world's sulphur supply is mainly determined by involuntary production of elemental sulphur during the processing of oil and gas. As a result, sulphur supply is decoupled from demand, resulting in an imbalance between the two. For almost two decades, sulphur supply has exceeded demand, which has raised significant concerns for oil and gas producers such as where to store all of the excess sulphur, and how to transport a low-value commodity to market in an economically attractive fashion. Black and Veatch is involved in the development of a new technology called sulphur to energy process (STEP TM ) which has the potential to assist in balancing global sulphur supply and demand, as well as affording other benefits such as low-emission energy production. This paper presented the potential merits of the STEP as a means to reestablish a global sulphur supply/demand balance for the world trading market. It explored the other potential benefits that may result from the use of this new technology and compared STEP to other technologies and operating schemes that regulate sulphur supply. It was concluded that STEP has the potential to allow the processor to produce elemental sulphur when demand is high, or to provide safe and ecological disposal when demand is low, with the added benefits of energy recovery from the sulphur combustion process, and sour gas reservoir sweetening over time as sulphur dioxide reacts with hydrogen sulphide present in the reservoir. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs

  14. Demand Forecasting in Downstream Supply Chain Telco Product

    OpenAIRE

    Ratih Hendayani; Adrian Darmanda

    2014-01-01

    This study aims is to manage the uncertainty demand in the downstream supply chain for a starter pack Telco product by measuring demand forecasting in one area of West Sumatra at PT. Pioneering Citra Pratama and its outlets as a distributor of PT. Indosat, one of the biggest operational cellular in Indonesia. With demand forecasting, the operator cellular can avoid a big gap between orders and demand and lower their lost opportunity. This research is a descriptive study and data collection te...

  15. Outline of energy (electricity) supply and demand outlook in Asian APEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujime, Kazuya

    1995-01-01

    Oil: Japan's oil demand is projected to be on a gradual decline in the future due to implementation of policy measures aimed at achieving that objective, while consumption of oil in three areas - China, NIES and six ASEAN countries -- is projected to increase to reach a level nearly three times as large as Japan's demand by 2010. Supply of oil in the region is projected to level off, making it necessary for the region to increase its reliance on other areas for additional volumes of oil supply. Coal: Demand for coal is projected to grow against a background of expansion of coal-fired power generation. Coal demand in China, in particular, is projected to grow to such an extent that China may become a net coal importer, thus having a great impact on coal supply and demand in Asian countries. Natural gas: Demand for natural gas is projected to grow in the region, centering on NIES and ASEAN countries. Although production in ASEAN countries is expected to increase, the region is anticipated to increase its reliance on other areas for natural gas supply from medium - and long term perspectives. Oil products: Demand for oil products is projected to grow due to stepped-up industrialization and motorization in China, NIES and ASEAN countries. From medium - and long-term perspectives, considerable volumes of additional oil product supply will become necessary, unless large-scale refineries are newly built or expanded within the region centering on China. (author)

  16. Natural gas supply in Denmark - A model of natural gas transmission and the liberalized gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bregnbaek, L.

    2005-01-01

    In the wake of the liberalization of European energy markets a large area of research has spawned. This area includes the development of mathematical models to analyze the impact of liberalization with respect to efficiency, supply security and environment, to name but a few subjects. This project describes the development of such a model. In Denmark the parallel liberalization of the markets of natural gas and electricity and the existence of an abundance of de-centralized combined heat and power generators of which most are natural gas fired, leads to the natural assumption that the future holds a greater deal of interdependency for these markets. A model is developed describing network flows in the natural gas transmission system, the main arteries of natural gas supply, from a technical viewpoint. This yields a technical bounding on the supply available in different parts of the country. Additionally the economic structure of the Danish natural gas market is formulated mathematically giving a description of the transmission, distribution and storage options available to the market. The supply and demand of natural gas is put into a partial equilibrium context by integrating the developed model with the Balmorel model, which describes the markets for electricity and district heat. Specifically on the demand side the consumption of natural gas for heat and power generation is emphasized. General results and three demonstration cases are presented to illustrate how the developed model can be used to analyze various energy policy issues, and to disclose the strengths and weaknesses in the formulation. (au)

  17. America: AGA [American Gas Association] initiative aims to boost gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraser, K.M.

    1992-01-01

    This article focuses on the aim of the American Gas Association to increase natural gas demand in the key areas of gas electric generation, natural gas vehicles, gas cooling, and conversion of oil burning facilities, electric water heaters and household appliances such as space heating, stoves, washers and lighting. The need to improve the reliability of natural gas supplies is discussed. It is anticipated that natural gas will not replace coal as the main energy source for power generation, but that it will help utilities to meet environmental regulations. (UK)

  18. Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.

    2014-01-01

    In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

  19. Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

  20. Enbridge 2004 annual report : supply demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Financial information from Enbridge was presented and a review of their 2004 operations was made available for the benefit of shareholders. Calgary based Enbridge is a leading North American energy delivery company operating in Canada and the United States. Enbridge's core competencies include liquids pipelining, gas distribution and gas pipelining which continued to provide high earnings per share. 2004 was a successful year in terms of financial and operational results and also in terms of developing and fulfilling long-term strategies. Earnings in 2004 increased by 8 per cent in adjusted earnings per share. Highlights of the year include broadening the access to markets for customers of crude oil pipelines; expanding the gas pipelines business; expanding the Ontario gas distribution network; increasing sponsored investments; and evaluating opportunities for growth in the international division. A key relationship was also established for developing oil sands and broadening US and Canadian markets. This report summarized the company's energy resource activities and presented an operations review as well as consolidated financial statements, and common share information including the accounts of Enbridge and the company's proportionate share of the assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and cash flows of joint ventures. Revenue and expenditure statements were summarized by source. tabs., figs

  1. Supply and Demand for Business Education in Naval Aviation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gray, Obra L

    2005-01-01

    ... modernization with current readiness. This project analyzes the supply and demand for postgraduate business education to determine how prepared Naval Aviation is to achieve long-term transformation objectives...

  2. Global Energy: Supply, Demand, Consequences, Opportunities (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majumdar, Arun

    2008-07-29

    Summer Lecture Series 2009: Arun Majumdar, Director of the Environmental Energy Technologies Division, discusses current and future projections of economic growth, population, and global energy demand and supply, and explores the implications of these trends for the environment.

  3. High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Möller

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS. The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings with individual supply, or in collective heating using renewable energy for heating the current building stock, can be based on improved data.

  4. Development of Shale Gas Supply Chain Network under Market Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Chebeir

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The increasing demand of energy has turned the shale gas and shale oil into one of the most promising sources of energy in the United States. In this article, a model is proposed to address the long-term planning problem of the shale gas supply chain under uncertain conditions. A two-stage stochastic programming model is proposed to describe and optimize the shale gas supply chain network. Inherent uncertainty in final products’ prices, such as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL, is treated through the utilization of a scenario-based method. A binomial option pricing model is utilized to approximate the stochastic process through the generation of scenario trees. The aim of the proposed model is to generate an appropriate and realistic supply chain network configuration as well as scheduling of different operations throughout the planning horizon of a shale gas development project.

  5. Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

    1989-01-01

    The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

  6. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  7. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  8. Education: Demand and Supply of Teachers for Primary Schools in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    How to ensure Nigerians have access to Universal Basic Education has often attracted the attention of some States and Federal Government of Nigeria since 1955. Several factors, bordering on supply of teachers, facilities, finance have constrained implementation of well fashioned policies. Demand and supply of teachers ...

  9. On the interdependence of money supply and demand

    OpenAIRE

    Cavalieri, Duccio

    2013-01-01

    This is a short essay on the present state of a controversial problem: that of the relationship between the supply and the demand for money. Exogeneous or endogenous money supply? The different positions taken in the literature on the subject are examined and discussed. The author's confidence in their interdependence is then expressed and motivated.

  10. Analytical Chemists: PhD Supply and Regulatory Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libby, R. A.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to forecast the demand/supply situation for analytical chemists through the 1980s and to report various suggestions from analytical chemistry professors responding to a Procter and Gamble survey for increasing the supply of chemistry students entering graduate school. (Author/CO)

  11. Uganda Coffee Supply Response and Export Demand: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Econometric methods were used to estimate the supply and demand functions for Uganda's coffee using time series data for the period 1971-91. Eight major importing countries for Uganda's coffee: U.S., U.K., Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands were considered in export demand analysis.

  12. Veterinary Medicine: Supply and Demand in the South.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Michael M.

    Trends in veterinary school enrollments and the demand for veterinary services in 14 southern states and the United States are reviewed to help states monitor veterinarian supply and demand. Highlights include the following: in 1984-1985, southern veterinary medicine schools will produce twice as many graduates as they did a decade earlier; the…

  13. Designing a demand-driven supply chain dashboard

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    M.Com. The aim of this study was to design a demand-driven supply chain dashboard geared towards improving performance measurement in a medical technology company. In this case study, Becton Dickinson (BD) was used as an example of a medical technology company. Document analysis of BD supply chain documents was performed. Underpinning the qualitative content analysis construct was the SCOR® model supply chain performance attribute and a dashboard design framework. The combined strength of ...

  14. Oil supply and demand - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The crude price variations of the last five years might be compared to the movements of a ball bouncing in an elevator. At regular intervals, a new high is reached, setting a record soon to be broken in turn. For each 'bounce', we might try to identify the conjuncture reasons responsible for pushing prices upwards, but there is always another new high, because the elevator has not finished going up. The price of US$ 100/bbl was reached 'by accident' at the beginning of 2008. Prices will stay high in future, and this record will inevitably be left behind for good in the next few years. Supply, limited in its nature, is inadequate in the face of needs infinite in their desires. This has placed the crude price on a growth path whose direction could only be changed, it would seem, by massive development of replacement fuels or very large gains in energy efficiency. That is, unless the world economy were hit by a major economic crisis

  15. Indian Supreme Court demands cleaner blood supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S

    1996-01-13

    The government of India recently admitted in parliament that 25% of the country's blood banks remain unlicensed. The Supreme Court has directed the government to establish a National Council for Blood Transfusion in an attempt to curb malpractice, malfunctioning, and corruption in the national blood banking system, and to ensure a safe blood supply. Furthermore, the Court advised the government to enact separate legislation for regulating the collection, processing, storage, distribution, and transportation of blood and the operation of blood banks. Legal action will be taken if any blood banks remain ill equipped or unlicensed after the period of one year. Agencies have been directed to take steps to eliminate professional blood selling within two years. They have also been asked to ensure that there are trained drug inspectors to check upon the banks. To boost funding for the councils, the government has been advised to allow 100% exemption upon income tax to those who donate money to the organizations. The Director General of Health Services has been asked to submit a report on action taken by July 16, 1996, to ensure compliance.

  16. The natural gas supply of united Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergmann, B.

    1992-01-01

    One cannot classify and describe the developments in the natural gas sector in Germany without reference to the environment. The natural gas economy is now international. The prospects for the demand for natural gas are dealt with, taking into account any energy taxation. The market share, occurrence of natural gas and prospects for obtention are described. (DG) [de

  17. Wingas in natural gas supply in Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Recently Wingas has become active in the transport and supply of natural gas in Belgium and succeeded in entering contracts for the supply of natural gas which cover 6% of the Belgian market. Wingas is a German-Russian joint venture between BASF-daughter Wintershall and OAO Gasprom [nl

  18. Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, Jean-Michel

    2009-01-01

    For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO 2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

  19. High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd; Nielsen, Steffen

    2014-01-01

    Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat...... demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS). The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat......, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings...

  20. Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  1. Fuel switching? Demand destruction? Gas market responses to price spikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lippe, D.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation defined fuel switching and addressed the issue regarding which consumers have the capability to switch fuels. In response to short term price aberrations, consumers with fuel switching capabilities reduce their use of one fuel and increase consumption of an alternative fuel. For example, natural gas consumption by some consumers declines in response to price spikes relative to prices of alternative fuels. This presentation also addressed the issue of differentiating between fuel switching and demand destruction. It also demonstrated how to compare gas prices versus alternative fuel prices and how to determine when consumers will likely switch fuels. Price spikes have implications for long term trends in natural gas demand, supply/demand balances and prices. The power generating sector represents a particular class of gas consumers that reduce operating rates of gas fired plants and increase operating rates of other plants. Some gas consumers even shut down plants until gas prices declines and relative economies improve. Some practical considerations for fuel switching include storage tank capacity, domestic refinery production, winter heating season, and decline in working gas storage. tabs., figs

  2. The importance of North Sea gas to European energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probert, R.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas can, of course, be transported over very long distances but, because of the economics of gas transmission, its impact is most often local. This has certainly been the case with North Sea gas, which has clearly contributed significantly to European energy supply and will continue to do so for some time to come. The historical importance of the discovery of gas in the North Sea has been that it has enabled natural gas industries to grow rapidly in North West Europe. Without North Sea gas and Dutch gas it is difficult to see how town gas would have been replaced in North West Europe. Certainly, a much smaller natural gas industry would have emerged. North Sea gas has inevitably had the greatest impact on gas markets in the countries of the European Community and this will remain the case in future. Nevertheless, it is inevitable that gas will, in future, flow across more national boundaries than in the past, and that North Sea gas will have an important part to play in meeting the Central European demand for competitively priced, secure supplies. This paper discusses the United Kingdom market for gas and future demand both in the United Kingdom and more widely in Europe. An examination of the availability of gas supplies from the North Sea suggests that it is unlikely that there will be a surplus of gas for export from the United Kingdom continental shelf. Norway will remain the main source of exports, with the Netherlands also in a strong position. Transportation and political aspects are also considered. (author)

  3. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  4. A Supply and Demand Update of the Molybdenum-99 Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-08-01

    Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m account for roughly 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing over 30 million examinations worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and 6 hours for its daughter isotope, technetium-99m (' 99m Tc), and thus must be produced continually - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing 99 Mo-producing research reactor and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. In 2011, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), along with its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR), released a report that presents the reasons behind the lack of infrastructure that led to global supply shortages and a policy approach to encourage long-term medical isotope supply security. In that report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: The Path to Reliability, the NEA also provides potential futures of supply and demand out to 2030. Since the release of The Path there have been a number of changes in the market and therefore this document provides an update on the 2011 supply and demand situation. This update is based on information provided to the NEA by members of the HLG-MR and other key stakeholders. This presentation of supply and demand future scenarios for the 99 Mo market revises previous NEA future scenarios based on new data and target conversion commitments from the supply chain. The update, unfortunately, does not present a more optimistic future scenario than previous presentations - the concern around the uneconomic situation of the supply chain continues to dominate the potential for new projects. This results in the potential for long-term shortages within the decade. However, there are a

  5. World energy outlook: Chevron forecasts supply and demand to the year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zippay, S.

    Chevron analyzes major trends in supply and demand to create a framework for forecasting what the petroleum industry faces in the years ahead. A mulitiplicity of demand factors makes these predictions difficult, but Chevron's forecast differs from others in its attempt to match petroleum product demand with oil supply and refinery capacity for all regions of the world. Charts illustrate that, barring political or military restraints, there is enough recoverable crude oil to meet projected demand through the year 2000, with prices rising as production rates approach the world's capacity rates. Competition from natural gas, shale oil, and coal liquids will increase as price differentials narrow. US projections show an increasing dependence on oil imports from 30% in 1984 to over half of all US supplies by the year 2000. 3 figures.

  6. World energy supply and demand outlook to the year 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    International Energy Agency

    1989-09-01

    The long-term outlook for world energy demand and supply presented here by the International Energy Agency is intended to be only indicative of the possible evolution of worldwide energy trends, given that considerable uncertainty affects every energy forecast. The analysis, through two crude oil price scenarios and certain assumptions about world economic activity over the period to 2005, shows an estimate of both world oil demand and supply by area and total world primary energy requirements, by fuel and by area, for the projection period.

  7. Outlook for world oil supply and demand through 1983

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodman, J.; Moore, J.

    The relative favorable near-term outlook calls for declining world demand, continued growth in non-OPEC oil supplies, and a continued inventory surplus unless there is an unexpected supply surplus. The authors identify the Iran-Iraq conflict, Saudi Arabian price and production policies, inventory policies, economic recovery, and political developments in eastern Europe, Libya, and elsewhere in the Middle East as the major uncertainties that could affect this outlook. 2 figures, 4 tables.

  8. Oil and Gas: Supply Issues After Katrina

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bamberger, Robert L; Kumins, Lawrence

    2005-01-01

    .... Assessment of damage to oil and gas production rigs, as well as refineries, continues. Some operating refineries whose crude supply has been interrupted are borrowing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR...

  9. Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This publication provides information on the interstate pipeline companies' supply of natural gas in the United States during calendar year 1990, for use by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for regulatory purposes. It also provides information to other Government agencies, the natural gas industry, as well as policy makers, analysts, and consumers interested in current levels of interstate supplies of natural gas and trends over recent years

  10. Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-03-01

    Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

  11. Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

    2015-01-01

    In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

  12. Seed yam demand and supply gap in Ghana: Implications for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examined seed yam supply and demand across four yam producing districts in Ghana. Primary data were obtained from 108 yam farmers who were selected through a multistage random sampling approach. Data collection was done through personal interviews with the use of standardised structured ...

  13. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  14. Demand and Supply Side Management Strategies for Zero Energy Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghiasi, Mohammad Iman; Hajizadeh, Amin; Aliakbar Golkar, Masoud

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes simultaneous Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) Strategies for smart Zero Energy Building (ZEB). The proposed DSM algorithm based upon game theory determines the optimal reference power of each power units during time interval of 5 min under three...

  15. Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

    2015-01-01

    In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

  16. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims to forecast the long term behavior of tourist arrivals and analyze the gap between supply and demand for the hotel/accommodation sector of the city of Addis Ababa. It also intends to provide vital information in regards to the sparse knowledge in the subject of forecasting tourist arrivals in Ethiopia.

  17. Extent of Supply of Biology Teachers Demanded in Secondary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A questionnaire titled “Demand and Supply of Biology Teachers (DSBT)” was used as the instrument for data collection which was validated and the internal consistency established using Cronbach alpha (8) reliability test method. One research question and one null hypothesis were formulated to guide the study.

  18. Ecosystem service markets 101: supply and demand for nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhonda Mazza; Jeff Kline; Trista Patterson

    2012-01-01

    Establishing markets for ecosystem services—the benefits that nature provides, such as clean air, water, and wildlife habitat—has gained traction in some circles as a way to finance the conservation of these public goods. Market influences on supply and demand work in tandem to encourage ecosystem protection. Jeff Kline and Trista Patterson, scientists with the...

  19. Demand and Supply of Teachers to Secondary Schools in Anambra ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the demand and supply of teachers to secondary schools in Anambra State of Nigeria due to school type. The survey design approach was adopted for this study. The population of the study comprised of all the secondary school principals, numbering 259 in the six education zones of Anambra State.

  20. Using Supply, Demand, and the Cournot Model to Understand Corruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Marc D.

    2007-01-01

    The author combines the supply and demand model of taxes with a Cournot model of bribe takers to develop a simple and useful framework for understanding the effect of corruption on economic activity. There are many examples of corruption in both developed and developing countries. Because corruption decreases the level of economic activity and…

  1. Supply and Demand for Registered Nurses in the South, 1985.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galambos, Eva C.

    Projections of supply and demand for registered nurses (RNs) through the 1980's are presented with specific reference to the 14 southern states. The importance of manpower projections and studies for registered nurses is emphasized in light of figures that show the number of graduates from entry-level programs in the southern states has doubled…

  2. Supply and demand equaions for livestock products in Nigeria: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, an attempt was made to estimate Nigeria's demand and supply equations for livestock products using the simultaneous equation model. The parameters of the specified structural equations were computed from the reduced equations using the Inverse Least Square (ILS) approach. The results show that price is ...

  3. Prioritization of adaptation strategies for water supply and demand ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prioritization of adaptation strategies for water supply and demand under climate change and its variability in Abuja, Nigeria. ... Journal of Research in Forestry, Wildlife and Environment ... To mitigate the deficiency occasioned by climate change, this study has considered some adaptation strategies and prioritized them.

  4. Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Paz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

  5. Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

    1999-01-01

    The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

  6. Easing the flow : update on diluent supply/demand, new technologies and diluent alternatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haukedal, C. [CCH Consulting, Calgary, AB (Canada); Rhodey, G. [Rhodey and Associates Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included a review of diluent supply and demand, and a series of graphs depicting natural gas reserves, and refined oil market opportunities. Alternative diluents were also discussed. These include: (1) gas cap and natural gas liquid (NGL) recycling schemes, refinery naphtha, light crude, synthetic crude, light fraction of light crude, international diluent recycle, upgrader naphtha plus hydrocracked naphtha, and re-routing of Alaska solution gas concentrate. The ramifications of using alternative diluents were examined. The acceptability and quantity of feedstock dictate the refinery process configurations and product specifications. To maximize profits while meeting refined product market forecasts, refiners optimize their operation. The various transportation alternatives to reduce diluent demand are: heated bitumen line, flow improvers, refined oil products, and diluent modification. The alternative technologies to reduce diluent demand are: upgrading to synthetic crude, removal of asphaltene components, combination of upgrading and asphaltene removal, partial upgrading, and refined oil. tabs., figs.

  7. Getting help from others: the effects of demand and supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Douglas A

    2014-11-01

    This article investigates whether the help with care needs that is received from others depends on the potential supply of family helpers. Data from the first round of survey data collected in the National Health and Aging Trends Study are used to create measures of whether help is received, the number of helpers, and the hours of help received. Regression analysis is used to relate these outcomes to indicators of the demand for and supply of helpers. Analyses suggest limited evidence that the receipt of help is a supply-driven phenomenon. Although the measures of child-caregiver supply are not associated with a binary indicator of help received, caregiver-supply factors are associated with the number of helpers and the total hours of help received. Findings on the total number of helpers and total hours of care have implications for the division of care labor within families and between families and nonfamily members. Foreseeable trends in the demand for and the supply of help suggest further evolution in patterns of elders' receipt of help with care needs. Even if those with needs for care continue to have their needs addressed by one or more helpers, the number of helpers, and the aggregate amount of help they provide, is likely to undergo adjustment in response to changing family patterns. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Star formation and gas supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catinella, B.

    2016-06-01

    A detailed knowledge of how gas cycles in and around galaxies, and how it depends on galaxy properties such as stellar mass and star formation rate, is crucial to understand galaxy formation and evolution. We take advantage of the most sensitive surveys of cold gas in massive galaxies, GASS and COLD GASS, as well as of the state-of-the-art HI blind survey ALFALFA to investigate how molecular and atomic hydrogen reservoirs vary along and across the main sequence of star-forming galaxies.

  9. Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, E.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

  10. Building a demand-driven, vendor-managed supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haavik, S

    2000-02-01

    Vendor-managed inventory (VMI) software can help both stand-alone and IDS-based hospitals significantly reduce supply-chain management costs. The software tracks an organization's actual supply demand and generates automatic purchase orders, providing the supplies on an as-needed basis. As a result, a hospital's inventory-carrying and purchase-order processing costs may be reduced significantly. To make optimum use of the VMI software, IDSs and hospitals first need to ensure that their methods of collecting data on supply consumption are efficient and accurate. They then need to either establish a relationship with a distributor offering VMI capability or, if the organization is a large IDS with its own distribution center, acquire the software for internal use. A collaboration with a distributor requires establishing effective electronic communications for data sharing.

  11. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  12. Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) supply chain collaboration development methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PETERSEN,MARJORIE B.; CHAPMAN,LEON D.

    2000-03-15

    The Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) project during the last five years of work with the U.S. Integrated Textile Complex (retail, apparel, textile, and fiber sectors) has developed an inter-enterprise supply chain collaboration development methodology. The goal of this methodology is to enable a supply chain to work more efficiently and competitively. The outcomes of this methodology include: (1) A definitive description and evaluation of the role of business cultures and supporting business organizational structures in either inhibiting or fostering change to a more competitive supply chain; (2) ``As-Is'' and proposed ``To-Be'' supply chain business process models focusing on information flows and decision-making; and (3) Software tools that enable and support a transition to a more competitive supply chain, which results form a business driven rather than technologically driven approach to software design. This methodology development will continue in FY00 as DAMA engages companies in the soft goods industry in supply chain research and implementation of supply chain collaboration.

  13. Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) model for supply chain collaboration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CHAPMAN,LEON D.; PETERSEN,MARJORIE B.

    2000-03-13

    The Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture (DAMA) project during the last five years of work with the U.S. Integrated Textile Complex (retail, apparel, textile, and fiber sectors) has developed an inter-enterprise architecture and collaborative model for supply chains. This model will enable improved collaborative business across any supply chain. The DAMA Model for Supply Chain Collaboration is a high-level model for collaboration to achieve Demand Activated Manufacturing. The five major elements of the architecture to support collaboration are (1) activity or process, (2) information, (3) application, (4) data, and (5) infrastructure. These five elements are tied to the application of the DAMA architecture to three phases of collaboration - prepare, pilot, and scale. There are six collaborative activities that may be employed in this model: (1) Develop Business Planning Agreements, (2) Define Products, (3) Forecast and Plan Capacity Commitments, (4) Schedule Product and Product Delivery, (5) Expedite Production and Delivery Exceptions, and (6) Populate Supply Chain Utility. The Supply Chain Utility is a set of applications implemented to support collaborative product definition, forecast visibility, planning, scheduling, and execution. The DAMA architecture and model will be presented along with the process for implementing this DAMA model.

  14. A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villada, Juan; Olaya, Yris

    2013-01-01

    Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure. - Highlights: ► We build a simulation model for analyzing natural gas trade in Colombia. ► The model captures the structure of the gas network and on market rules. ► We simulate investment decisions to increase short-term security of supply. ► Securing supply would need LNG imports and expansion of pipeline capacity.

  15. Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

    2016-01-01

    The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

  16. Regulation of replication fork progression through histone supply and demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Anja; Corpet, Armelle; Cook, Adam J L

    2007-01-01

    DNA replication in eukaryotes requires nucleosome disruption ahead of the replication fork and reassembly behind. An unresolved issue concerns how histone dynamics are coordinated with fork progression to maintain chromosomal stability. Here, we characterize a complex in which the human histone c...... progression and histone supply and demand.......1 chaperone function, histone supply, and replicative unwinding of DNA in chromatin. We propose that Asf1, as a histone acceptor and donor, handles parental and new histones at the replication fork via an Asf1-(H3-H4)-MCM2-7 intermediate and thus provides a means to fine-tune replication fork...

  17. Teacher Supply and Demand: Surprises from Primary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Wayne

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available An investigation of primary research studies on public school teacher supply and demand revealed four surprises. Projections show that enrollments are leveling off. Relatedly, annual hiring increases should be only about two or three percent over the next few years. Results from studies of teacher attrition also yield unexpected results. Excluding retirements, only about one in 20 teachers leaves each year, and the novice teachers who quit mainly cite personal and family reasons, not job dissatisfaction. Each of these findings broadens policy makers' options for teacher supply.

  18. Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, H. G. M.

    1978-01-01

    A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

  19. Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Jeung Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time

  20. Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Jeung; Park, Nam Hee; Lee, Kun Sei; Chee, Hyun Keun; Sim, Sung Bo; Kim, Myo Jeong; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myunghwa; Park, Choon Seon

    2016-12-01

    While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors

  1. Mid-1970's imbalance in zircon supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gordon, D.V.; Collins, R.E.

    1975-01-01

    Mining and the historical development of the zircon market are briefly reviewed. Causes of the fluctuations in the zircon demand and supply and in the price are discussed. Possible adjustments (such as substitution of other materials in the steel foundry) are listed. Future uses of zircon will probably be limited to those which can justify high prices and those for which there are no substitutes. (DLC)

  2. Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

    1997-01-01

    Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

  3. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  4. New information on world uranium resource, production, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jianguo; Meng Jin

    2006-01-01

    New information on world uranium resource, production, supply and demand is introduced. Up to now, explored uranium resources at production cost < USD 40/kg U has 2523257 t uranium; production cost < USD 80/kg U has 5911514 t uranium; production cost < USD130/kg U has 11280488 t uranium; and cost range unassigned has 3102000 t uranium. At moment, the demand uranium of each year is about 67000 t U. After 2020, world uranium demand will rise well above 100000 t per annum with sharp revival of nuclear power plants. With three kinds of economic growth the cumulative requirement of the uranium in low demand case, middle demand case and high demand case from 2000 to 2050 is 3390000, 5394100 and 7577300 t respectively. In the world market uranium price rises from 20 years lowest 18.2 USD/kg U to 75.4 USD/kg U. In 2003, global uranium product is about 35385 t U, and 2004, global uranium product is about 40475 t U. In 2004's world uranium production underground mining, open pit, in situ, by product, and combination account for 39%, 27%, 19%, 11% and 4% respectively. (authors)

  5. Right ventricular oxygen supply/demand balance in exercising dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, B J; Bian, X; Gwirtz, P A; Setty, S; Downey, H F

    2001-08-01

    This is the first investigation of right ventricular (RV) myocardial oxygen supply/demand balance in a conscious animal. A novel technique developed in our laboratory was used to collect right coronary (RC) venous blood samples from seven instrumented, conscious dogs at rest and during graded treadmill exercise. Contributions of the RV oxygen extraction reserve and the RC flow reserve to exercise-induced increases in RV oxygen demand were measured. Strenuous exercise caused a 269% increase in RV oxygen consumption. Expanded arteriovenous oxygen content difference (A-V(Delta)O2) provided 58% of this increase in oxygen demand, and increased RC blood flow (RCBF) provided 42%. At less strenuous exercise, expanded A-V(Delta)O2 provided 60-80% of the required oxygen, and increases in RCBF were small and driven by increased aortic pressure. RC resistance fell only at strenuous exercise after the extraction reserve had been mobilized. Thus RC resistance was unaffected by large decreases in RC venous PO2 until an apparent threshold at 20 mmHg was reached. Comparisons of RV findings with published left ventricular data from exercising dogs demonstrated that increased O2 demand of the left ventricle is met primarily by increasing coronary flow, whereas increased O2 extraction makes a greater contribution to RV O2 supply.

  6. Econophysics of a ranked demand and supply resource allocation problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priel, Avner; Tamir, Boaz

    2018-01-01

    We present a two sided resource allocation problem, between demands and supplies, where both parties are ranked. For example, in Big Data problems where a set of different computational tasks is divided between a set of computers each with its own resources, or between employees and employers where both parties are ranked, the employees by their fitness and the employers by their package benefits. The allocation process can be viewed as a repeated game where in each iteration the strategy is decided by a meta-rule, based on the ranks of both parties and the results of the previous games. We show the existence of a phase transition between an absorbing state, where all demands are satisfied, and an active one where part of the demands are always left unsatisfied. The phase transition is governed by the ratio between supplies and demand. In a job allocation problem we find positive correlation between the rank of the workers and the rank of the factories; higher rank workers are usually allocated to higher ranked factories. These all suggest global emergent properties stemming from local variables. To demonstrate the global versus local relations, we introduce a local inertial force that increases the rank of employees in proportion to their persistence time in the same factory. We show that such a local force induces non trivial global effects, mostly to benefit the lower ranked employees.

  7. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  8. CRISP. Market-oriented online supply-demand matching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamphuis, I.G.; Kester, J.C.P.; Carlsson, P; Akkermans, H.

    2004-04-01

    Current power distribution systems are operated in a top-down manner. Power production control and price formation take place on a central level on the basis of relatively static data from a data collection and dispatching network with a limited scope and granularity. When incorporating a more considerable fraction of small-scale producers on the basis of, for instance, renewable energy, operation of the distribution grid requires more data to be collected from a more extensive information and data communication network. Furthermore, increased local flows, in the form of two-way communication with distributed computation techniques, enable a more dynamic adaptation in power supply and demand patterns paving the way to a flexible way of embedding of ill-predictable supply of some types of renewable energy sources. DSM-programs have been in use in the utility sector for years now. In this document, first, current Demand Side Management (DSM) and Demand Response Resource (DRR) techniques are discussed; then, supply side management especially in a DG (Distributed Generation) context is treated. A framework of novel concepts and possible technology directions is presented subsequently and some preliminary scenarios are shown to illustrate these concepts. An overview of more flexible supply and demand matching schemes is given essentially based on four distinct types of SDM clusters. It appears, that it is possible to fulfil requirements for these distributed environments in terms of needed information and communication technology, ICT, if these are paralleled with the expected future penetration of ever-smaller scale data-exchange networks at power customer sites. Agent technology using algorithms from micro-economic market theory offers a promising possibility for managing the complexity of price formation and supply demand matching in these fine-grained bottom-up control distribution networks. Implication of these technical developments in terms of market and business

  9. Minimizing costs is easier than minimizing peaks when supplying the heat demand of a group of houses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fink, J.; Hurink, Johann L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper studies planning problems for a group of heating systems which supply the hot water demand for domestic use in houses. These systems (e.g. gas or electric boilers, heat pumps or microCHPs) use an external energy source to heat up water and store this hot water for supplying the domestic

  10. The brain’s supply and demand in obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Britta eKubera

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available During psychosocial stress, the brain demands extra energy from the body to satisfy its increased needs. For that purpose it uses a mechanism referred to as cerebral insulin suppression (CIS. Specifically, activation of the stress system suppresses insulin secretion from pancreatic beta-cells, and in this way energy – particularly glucose – is allocated to the brain rather than the periphery. It is unknown, however, how the brain of obese humans organizes its supply and demand during psychosocial stress. To answer this question, we examined 20 obese and 20 normal weight men in two sessions (Trier Social Stress Test and non-stress control condition followed by either a rich buffet or a meager salad. Blood samples were continuously taken and subjects rated their vigilance and mood by standard questionnaires. First, we found a low reactive stress system in obesity. While obese subjects showed a marked hormonal response to the psychosocial challenge, the cortisol response to the subsequent meal was absent. Whereas the brains of normal weight subjects demanded for extra energy from the body by using CIS, CIS was not detectable in obese subjects. Our findings suggest that the absence of CIS in obese subjects is due to the absence of their meal-related cortisol peak. Second, normal weight men were high reactive during psychosocial stress in changing their vigilance, thereby increasing their cerebral energy need, whereas obese men were low reactive in this respect. Third, normal weight subjects preferred carbohydrates after stress to supply their brain, while obese men preferred fat and protein instead. We conclude that the brain of obese people organizes its need, supply and demand in a low reactive manner.

  11. World oil production. [Demand to overshadow supplies before year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flower, A.R.

    1978-03-01

    The supply of oil will fail to meet increasing demand before the year 2000. As oil production inevitably levels off and then falls, alternative fuels will have to meet the demand for energy, which will continue to grow in the face of even vigorous attempts at conservation. The oil-importing countries have perhaps as few as five years or perhaps as many as 20 in which to accomplish a transition from dependence on oil to greater reliance on other fossil fuels, on nuclear energy and eventually on renewable energy sources. Because large investments and long lead times are required for developing new energy resources the effort must begin immediately. These are among the major conclusions of a two-year international study, the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies. The workshop participants came from the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Italy, Iran, and Japan. The workshop developed projections of energy supply and demand under various assumptions, notably concerning economic growth and the price of energy. Two basic scenarios were formulated, one assuming a high economic growth rate and high energy prices and the other a low growth rate and constant prices. The high-growth, high-price scenario assumed that economic growth in the non-Communist world would average 5.2% per year between 1976 and 1985 and 4% between 1985 and 2000, and that energy prices would remain constant (in real terms) until 1985 and increase 50% by 2000. The low-growth, constant-price scenario assumed that economic growth would average 3.4% per year until 1985 and then 2.8% until 2000, and that real energy prices would remain constant during the entire period. Within that framework energy-demand forecasts were prepared for the various regions for each fuel and were aggregated to project the total energy demand in 1985 and 2000.

  12. Optimal supply and demand investments in municipal energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolfsman, Bjoern

    2004-01-01

    In many municipalities, there are district heating networks, which are quite commonly supplied by combined heat and power plants (CHP). A district heating network contains buildings of different types. In this paper, one such municipal energy system is analysed. In order to provide space heating and domestic hot water, investments could be made on the supply side in power plants, or on the demand side in the buildings, for example in the form of extra wall insulation. The electricity from the CHP plants is supplied to the municipality but can also be sold to the electricity market, and electricity can, of course, also be bought from the market. The variation in price on the spot market over any given day is significant. The need for district heat in the building stock also varies, for example due to climatic conditions. The energy system in the case study is analysed with a mixed integer linear programming model. The model has 3 h time steps in order to reflect diurnal variations, and an entire year is analysed. A case study is presented for the city of Linkoeping in Sweden. On the demand side, the options are: extra wall insulation, extra attic insulation and better types of windows. The building stock is divided into nine categories

  13. 42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements. 84.149 Section 84.149 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTIVE DEVICES Supplied-Air Respirators § 84.149 Type C supplied-air respirator...

  14. Huge supply/demand increases seen in oxygenate forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhoades, A.K.

    1992-01-01

    Industry originally projected that oxygenate supply would not be able to meet the demand created by U.S. oxygenated and reformulated gasoline mandates. This paper reports that those projections have been reserved in two recent industry reports - one from Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI) and one from Pace Consultants Inc. Pace's report, by Paulo Nery and Nathan Sims, predicts gasoline and oxygenates demand, and examines the role ethanol may play in changing those values. CMAI's report estimates captive supply and demand of butylenes and oxygenates. Oxygenates are entering the domestic gasoline market this winter as a result of the 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is the most important oxygenate, although ethanol, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME) are gathering market strength. Ethanol's strength is derived from President Bush's ruling granting a waiver to reformulated gasoline containing ethanol. This waiver allows ethanol blends to have a vapor pressure 1 psi higher than other types of gasoline

  15. Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Guo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Shale gas, with its lower carbon content and pollution potential, is the most promising natural gas resource in China. When modeling the shale gas supply in a specific gas field, it is of paramount importance to determine the gas supply under economic considerations. Two common calculation methods are used in China for this purpose: Method 1 (M1 is the breakeven analysis, where the gas supply is based on the relationship between costs and revenues, while Method 2 (M2 is the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model, where the supply relies on demand and price scenarios. No comparisons has been made between these two methods. In this study, the Fuling shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin was chosen as a study case to forecast the shale gas supply using these two different methods. A sensitivity analysis was performed to discuss the influencing factors of each method and error measures were used to compare the different shale gas supply values calculated by each method. The results shows that M1 is more sensitive to initial production, while M2 is more sensitive to gas price. In addition, M2 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at high price scenarios and M1 is considered to be reliable for low price scenarios with profit. This study can provide a quick and comprehensive assessment method for the shale gas supply in China.

  16. Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

    2017-01-01

    Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

  17. Glucagon increases hepatic oxygen supply-demand ratio in pigs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelman, S.; Dillard, E.; Parks, D.A.

    1987-01-01

    The present study was performed on eight young pigs to test the hypothesis that glucagon increases hepatic oxygen supply to a greater extent than hepatic oxygen uptake, providing a better hepatic oxygen supply-demand relationship. The experiments were performed under pentobarbital sodium anesthesia and controlled ventilation. Splanchnic blood flow was studied using radioactive microspheres. Glucagon was administered in doses of 1 and 5 μg x kg -1 x min -1 . During glucagon infusion, hepatic arterial blood flow substantially increased, splenic and pancreatic blood flows increased moderately, while stomach and intestinal blood flows, as well as portal blood flow did not change significantly. Shunting of both 9- and 15-μm spheres through preportal tissues did not change significantly. Oxygen content in arterial or portal venous blood did not change significantly, while it increased in hepatic venous blood by 30%. There were no differences in the effects between the doses of glucagon administered. There was no correlation found between changes in hepatic oxygen supply and cardiac output or blood pressure. The changes observed during glucagon administration resulted in an increase in oxygen delivery to the liver and hepatic oxygen supply-uptake ratio

  18. EVOLUTION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WHEAT IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana-Elena MARIN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to present the evolution of supply demand and of wheat in Romanian market. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute of Statistics and European Statistics (Eurostat. The data have been processed into the following indicators: cultivated surfaces, obtained production, consumption per capita. Wheat production is correlated with seeding surface, but, sometimes paradoxes appear, where even if the cultivated surface is large the production is low. During the analyzed period, cultivated surfaces remained constantly; the production has continuously increased, so that in the year 2013 there are 7,383 million tonnes of wheat in Romania. As a conclusion, Romania is able to support domestic demand for wheat and can also export a significant amount of this grain.

  19. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of expansion of production are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data base on which commercial judgements have to be made is stressed. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making, and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are illustrated

  20. Supply and demand of diesel engine for 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    This document takes stock on the diesel engine situation in France, in order to define the future policy for 2010. The first part is a state of the art concerning the description and characteristics of the diesel, the diesel production in refineries, the biofuels, the supply and demand. The second part details the evolutions, the investments and the fiscality impacts. The last part concludes on the necessity of a fiscal neutrality and on the fact that no new refinery is justified in France. It proposes different scenario of the imports evolution. (A.L.B.)

  1. 42 CFR 84.163 - Man test for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... for gases and vapors; Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure-demand classes; test... ......do ......do The air-supply hose, detachable coupling, and demand valve of the demand class or pressure-demand valve of the pressure-demand class for Type C supplied-air respirators, demand and pressure...

  2. 46 CFR 197.340 - Breathing gas supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Breathing gas supply. 197.340 Section 197.340 Shipping... GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Equipment § 197.340 Breathing gas supply. (a) A primary breathing gas supply for surface-supplied diving must be sufficient to support the following for the...

  3. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  5. Eastern markets : is there enough demand for new supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holder, J.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of the energy market's ability to support pipeline expansion projects was discussed. Pipeline expansion is a natural corollary of deregulation. Since expansion and competition in the natural gas industry go hand in hand, pipeline expansion is inevitable, imperative and in the longer-term is in the best interest of the end use gas consumer. The effect of pipeline expansion on local distribution companies (LDCs) such as Consumers Gas which serves eastern Canadian markets was also described. It was explained that LDCs are being transformed by deregulation which has opened the market to direct purchasing, meaning that end-users (including residential customers) can buy their natural gas through various brokers, marketers and producers. Some of the other factors affecting the demand for natural gas such as convergence, deregulation, the environment, and their impact were also discussed. It was suggested that in the near-term there is a possibility of over-construction of pipeline capacity, resulting in the demise of some of the projects. Even in the longer-term, only the pipelines that are willing to differentiate themselves from other pipelines by providing more customer choice, more service options and better service, will prosper. Market and regulatory advantage can also be gained by quickly reacting to changing market conditions through expansion of existing pipelines in stages via compression and looping. In pipeline construction timing is critical

  6. Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Scott; Finlay, Keith

    2016-10-01

    Successful supply-side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets ('precursor control') can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity-adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre-treatment levels within 6-12 months, demonstrating the short-term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is -0.13 to -0.21 for self-admitted drug treatment admissions and between -0.24 and -0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross-price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Global Supply and Demand of Opioids for Pain Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunnumpurath, Sreekumar; Julien, Natasha; Kodumudi, Gopal; Kunnumpurath, Anamika; Kodumudi, Vijay; Vadivelu, Nalini

    2018-04-04

    The goal of this review is to evaluate the global supply and demand of opioids used for pain management and discuss how it relates to the utilization of opioids around the world. The purpose of the review is also to determine the factors that contribute to inappropriate pain management. The total global production of opium for opioid manufacturing is enough to supply the growing global demands. However, licit opioids are only consumed by 20% of the world population. Most people throughout the world had no access to opioid analgesics for pain relief in case of need. Opioid misuse and abuse is not only a phenomena plague by the USA but globally across many countries. Many countries have a lack of availability of opioids, contributing factors being strict government regulations limiting access, lack of knowledge of the efficacy of opioid analgesics in treating acute and chronic pain and palliative care, and the stigma that opioids are highly addictive. For the countries in which opioids are readily available and prescribed heavily, diversion, misuse, abuse, and the resurgence of heroin have become problems leading to morbidity and mortality. It is pertinent to find a balance between having opioids accessible to patients in need, with ensuring that opioids are regulated along with other illicit drugs to decrease abuse potential.

  8. Changing patterns in global lead supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, H.

    The past decade has seen some very significant changes in the supply and the demand for lead. One of the most obvious developments is the emergence of China—both as the world's largest producer of primary lead and as a very significant consumer. Perhaps less obvious have been the increasing role of secondary lead in meeting demand for refined metal and the rapid growth in demand for industrial batteries, which have helped to sustain an annual average growth rate in Western World consumption of 3.4% between 1993 and 2000. Patchy knowledge about the lead industry in China has made it difficult to anticipate developments there and has created uncertainty in the global market. This uncertainty, and lead's poor environmental image, largely undeserved as it may be today, has meant few companies outside the lead business want to be seen participating in it. This is just one factor accounting for the very limited increase in lead mine production for the foreseeable future. With around 75% of lead now being used in batteries and a very high global scrap recycling rate, it is probable that most, if not all, growth in lead demand can be met without an overall increase in mine production. The challenge for the lead industry will be to ensure that sufficient recycling capacity is in place in the right parts of the world to process an increasing quantity of battery and other lead-bearing scrap. Huge investment in the world's telecommunications infrastructure and IT networks in the second half of the 1990s created a major market for industrial lead-acid batteries. With the collapse of the market for telecommunications equipment in 2001, lead consumption has fallen sharply and has revealed the extent to which demand growth in recent years has been dependent on this sector.

  9. Comparative life cycle assessment of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Henning; Hartmann, Kilian; Bühle, Lutz; Wachendorf, Michael

    2015-03-01

    The environmental performance of biogas plant configurations for a demand - oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation is comparatively assessed in this study. Those configurations indicate an increased energy demand to operate the operational enhancements compared to conventional biogas plants supplying biogas for baseload power generation. However, findings show that in contrast to an alternative supply of power generators with natural gas, biogas supplied on demand by adapted biogas plant configurations saves greenhouse gas emissions by 54-65 g CO(2-eq) MJ(-1) and primary energy by about 1.17 MJ MJ(-1). In this regard, configurations with flexible biogas production profit from reduced biogas storage requirements and achieve higher savings compared to configurations with continuous biogas production. Using thicker biogas storage sheeting material reduces the methane permeability of up to 6m(3) d(-1) which equals a reduction of 8% of the configuration's total methane emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  11. Prospects for Bioenergy in Europe. Supply, Demand and Trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, Karin

    2006-11-01

    Renewable energy sources (RES), such as biomass, can be used to address two important issues in Europe: climate change and energy security. If biomass is produced sustainably and used efficiently, bioenergy contributes very little to CO 2 emissions. The overall objective of the work presented in this thesis is to provide a scientific basis describing how bioenergy can play a fundamental role in the transition to more sustainable energy systems. For this purpose, an assessment of the potential biomass supply was made. This assessment shows that the long-term biomass supply could amount to up to 16 EJ/y in the EU27, i.e. 21% of the current primary energy supply, taking environmental and land-use restrictions into account. The greater part of this potential biomass supply consists of perennial energy crops. Thus, if biomass is to play a major role in the future energy supply, large-scale perennial energy crop production is required. The analysis of the economics of growing willow, a perennial energy crop, indicates that it can be equally viable for the farmer as that of cereal crops if subsidies and the cost of risk are excluded. In a strategy to reduce the cost of risk, a central issue is to create opportunities for a long-term demand for bioenergy. In Sweden and Finland, two of the leading bioenergy-using countries in Europe, energy and CO 2 taxes have been the key instruments in increasing the use of bioenergy. Creating opportunities for bioenergy in general will not immediately or necessarily stimulate perennial crop production since production costs are at the high end of the biomass cost range. In a strategy to stimulate perennial crop production, large coal-fired power and combined heat and power (CHP) plants can play an important role. Co-firing of biofuels in these plants is a low-risk bioenergy strategy for energy companies. The continuous and, compared to other continents in the world, more intense promotion of bioenergy in Europe is likely to increase

  12. Natural gas supplies; Le point sur l'approvisionnement en gaz naturel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    This article comments data about the share of natural gas in the energy demand in Europe, about the uses of natural gas by different sectors (housing and office buildings, electricity production, and industry) in Europe, and about gas European imports and about gas supply origins. Graphs are displaying the evolution of energy demand in some European countries between 1990 and 2006 and for different energy sources (natural gas, coal, oil, primary energy, and renewable energies), the evolution of gas production and consumption in different countries of the European Union between 1990 and 2006, and gas import origins in the European Union in 2006. Gas pipeline projects between gas producing countries and Europe are briefly presented, and the development of liquefied natural gas is briefly commented and outlined as a contribution to supply diversification.

  13. Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-12-01

    Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward.

  14. Entanglement Between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Mirta B.; Nadal, Jean-Pierre; Phan, Denis; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2013-05-01

    Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined `positive externalities' or `bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one—in which case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected, leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social sciences by T.C. Schelling in the 70's.

  15. Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

  16. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-04-01

    The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  17. Aligning PEV Charging Times with Electricity Supply and Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Cabell [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-06-05

    Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a growing source of electricity consumption that could either exacerbate supply shortages or smooth electricity demand curves. Extensive research has explored how vehicle-grid integration (VGI) can be optimized by controlling PEV charging timing or providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services, such as storing energy in vehicle batteries and returning it to the grid at peak times. While much of this research has modeled charging, implementation in the real world requires a cost-effective solution that accounts for consumer behavior. To function across different contexts, several types of charging administrators and methods of control are necessary to minimize costs in the VGI context.

  18. Type 2 myocardial infarction due to supply-demand mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihatov, Nino; Januzzi, James L; Gaggin, Hanna K

    2017-08-01

    The best-accepted definition of myocardial infarction (MI) is provided by statements from the Universal Definition of MI Global Task force. This article, now in its third iteration, defines MI as myocardial cell death due to prolonged myocardial ischemia. It further delineates an increasingly incident subclassification of MI known as type 2 MI (T2MI). T2MI identifies instances of myocardial necrosis in which an imbalance between myocardial oxygen supply and/or demand occurs for reasons other than atherosclerotic plaque disruption. While associated with considerable risk (comparable to that of type 1 MI, which has well-defined management strategies), the spectrum of potential etiologies for T2MI makes development of precise diagnostic criteria and therapeutic implications of the diagnosis challenging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Working group report on water resources, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marta, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    A summary is presented of the issues discussed, and the conclusions and recommendations of a working group on water resources, supply and demand. The issues were grouped into the categories of detecting climatic change and water impacts, simulating potential impacts, and responding to potential impacts. The workshop groups achieved consensus on the following points: the physics of global warming and climatic change have been satifactorily proven; there appears to be some evidence of climatic change and a signal could soon be detected; policy decisions and strategic plans for climatic change and its potential impacts are needed immediately; and targets and priorities for decison making should be identified and addressed immediately. Three top-priority issues are the identification of indicators for the detection of climatic change impacts on hydrology, determining response to climate-related change, and evaluation of design criteria. Better information on regional climate and hydrology under conditions of global warming is needed before design criteria could be altered

  20. Hotspots of human nutrition: Micronutrient supply, demand, and pollinator dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombeck, E.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Mueller, M.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    While our caloric needs can mostly be met by wind-pollinated crops such as cereals, a recent analysis of USDA data shows that animal-pollinated crops contain the vast majority of many essential nutrients, including vitamins A and C, calcium, fluoride, and folic acid. In this work we combined global crop yield data with data on nutritional content in each crop to map nutrient production around the world, and to illustrate the value of pollination services to human nutrition. Spatially explicit crop yields (at 5 min resolution) were multiplied by crop nutrient content and by crop dependence on pollination to map where reductions in total nutrient production would occur if pollination services were removed. Nutrient demand maps (human nutrient requirements multiplied by population density) were generated to identify regions where local reduction in pollination services could threaten nutritional security. Nutrient deficiency maps (nutrient supply minus nutrient demand) were also created to identify hotspots where local crop production is not adequate to meet local nutritional needs.

  1. Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryxell, John M; Hilborn, Ray; Bieg, Carling; Turgeon, Katrine; Caskenette, Amanda; McCann, Kevin S

    2017-11-14

    There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply-demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  2. Climate change and water supply and demand in western Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawford, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    There is reason to be concerned that water resources on the Canadian Prairies could be at considerable risk due to climatic change. The Canadian Prairies frequently experience variations in the climate, which can reduce crop production by 25-50% and annual volumetric river flows by 70-90%. The potential impacts of climatic change on the Prairies are discussed. Consumptive water uses on the Prairies are dominated by irrigation and the water demands arising from thermal power generation. The overall effect of climatic change on water supplies will depend on the ways in which the various components of the hydrological cycle are affected. At the present time it is unsure whether complementary equations are more realistic in estimating evaporation than mass balance techniques. There is a need to obtain good baseline data which will allow the unequivocal resolution of the most accurate technique for estimating evaporation on the Prairies. Climate change could lead to a decrease in spring runoff, and would also lead to earlier snowmelt and peak flows. This could lead to a longer period of low flows during the summer and fall and a further drawdown of moisture reserves. Some appropriate strategies for adapting to climate change would be: encouraging water conservation; reductions in agricultural water use by developing/utilizing strains of plants with lower water demand; controlling new water developments; and enhancing on-farm retention. 10 refs

  3. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2015 edition + executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    France's new energy transition law for green growth takes effect in 2015, and it will support RTE in its task of assessing and analysing security of electricity supply. Indeed, RTE is required by law to periodically publish Generation Adequacy Reports on the balance between electricity supply and demand. This year's report will be used in security of supply analyses conducted as part of the planning of the next multi-annual energy program. Another highlight of 2015 is the operational implementation of the capacity mechanism. Electricity suppliers now have to contribute to security of supply in proportion to their customers' consumption via a new obligation-based system. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report was prepared within this context. The supply-demand balance outlook is considerably better over the entire medium-term horizon than in the 2014 Generation Adequacy Report. This is a result of generators' recent decisions to keep oil-fired and combined-cycle gas plants in the market. Included in the possible courses of action RTE identified in its previous Generation Adequacy Report, these decisions were taken just as the capacity mechanism was being implemented operationally. A downward revision of demand assumptions has also improved the security of supply outlook. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report paints a much more favourable picture of the supply-demand balance over the next five years than the previous edition. Significant margins are foreseen during the next two winters. This year's Generation Adequacy Report also includes detailed assumptions about the evolution of the European mix, which will play an increasingly important role in guaranteeing security of supply in France. Indeed, interconnections will help reduce the shortfall risk by 8 to 10 GW over the next five winters. Lastly, a new chapter about flexibility requirements and the variability of residual demand associated with the growing share of renewable generation in the

  4. Analysis of natural gas supply strategies at Fort Drum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stucky, D.J.; Shankle, S.A.; Anderson, D.M.

    1992-07-01

    This analysis investigates strategies for Fort Drum to acquire a reliable natural gas supply while reducing its gas supply costs. The purpose of this study is to recommend an optimal supply mix based on the life-cycle costs of each strategy analyzed. In particular, this study is intended to provide initial guidance as to whether or not the building and operating of a propane-air mixing station is a feasible alternative to the current gas acquisition strategy. The analysis proceeded by defining the components of supply (gas purchase, gas transport, supplemental fuel supply); identifying alternative options for each supply component; constructing gas supply strategies from different combinations of the options available for each supply component and calculating the life-cycle costs of each supply strategy under a set of different scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of future events

  5. LNG [liquefied natural gas]: Fueling energy demand in the Far East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    An overview is presented of the supply and demand outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the far east, and the basic elements of an LNG supply project in Japan. Power generation is the primary market for LNG in the far east, due to a preference for energy supply diversity, large undeveloped gas resources, drastic improvements in power generation technology, and environmental advantages of natural gas. India and mainland China represent huge potential markets, and projects are under discussion to bring gas by pipeline from Iran or Qatar to both Pakistan or India. The economics of LNG plant development in Japan, including large ($4 billion for field and plant development) capital costs, long-term contracts, government involvement, and gas prices are discussed. Falling yen/dollar exchange rates have substantially bettered the Japanese economy in terms of gas prices. 11 figs., 2 tabs

  6. The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1993-01-01

    The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so inter-related that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulfur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulfur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. The paper looks in greater detail at the supply and demand situation with respect to oil and natural gas, at regional oil import dependency and refining capacity. (10 figures). (author)

  7. Business process modelling in demand-driven agri-food supply chains : a reference framework

    OpenAIRE

    Verdouw, C.N.

    2010-01-01

    Keywords: Business process models; Supply chain management; Information systems; Reference information models; Market orientation; Mass customisation; Configuration; Coordination; Control; SCOR; Pot plants; Fruit industry Abstract The increasing volatility and diversity of demand urge agri-food supply chains to become more demand driven, i.e. sensitive and responsive to demand information of the ultimate consumer. Companies that participate in demand-driven supply chains must manage a high va...

  8. Prospects of natural gas demand and pipeline projects in the East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, A.

    1997-01-01

    The development of the natural gas industry in East Asia was discussed. It was predicted that by 2010, the demand for natural gas could potentially reach 80 billion cubic feet per day. This represents an 8 per cent per year growth rate from a 1995 baseline. Similarly, it was predicted that by 2010, the region's natural gas supply could potentially reach 65 billion cubic feet per day which would represent 2.5 times the supply of natural gas in 1995. The additional demand will most likely be supplied from the Middle East in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), from Eastern Russia through pipelines of LNG, or from North America in the form of LNG. Some gas may also be supplied from Central Asia through pipelines. The price and cost of natural gas are major uncertainties in the future of the East Asian gas demand. Pipeline projects from Russia to China were discussed. Japan and Korea are also interested in collaborating on the feasibility study with Russia and China on a 3,400 km pipeline of 60 inch diameter from the Koviktinskoye gas field through Mongolia to Beijing, Tianjin and Korea, transporting 20 to 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually. A natural gas pipeline project transporting gas from the southern edge of the Sakhalin Island to the Tokyo area was also discussed. The project would involve construction of a 2,200 km 40-48 inch pipeline, much of it undersea, transporting 6 to 12 million tonnes of liquid natural gas, annually

  9. Physician supply and demand in anatomical pathology in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chih-Yi; Jung, Shih-Ming; Chuang, Shih-Sung

    2011-02-01

    Anatomical pathology was not popular in Taiwan a few decades ago, with a severe shortage of pathologists. However, there has been a steady increase in recent years, and now there is a threat of oversupply We evaluated supply and demand over the past three decades and compared the findings with other countries. We collected the enrollment data of pathologists and physicians from the Taiwan Society of Pathology, the Department of Health, Executive Yuan, and Taiwan Medical Association, and analyzed equivalent data from other countries. We sent questionnaires to pathology chiefs to inquire about future job vacancies. The number of pathologists has increased at an annual rate of 4.93% between 2004 and 2008, in contrast to 3.7% for all physicians. There has been a net annual increase of 12 pathologists in the past 13 years. The estimated average number of consultant posts per year was nine, which was only one-third of the average number of first-year residents (R1s). The number of pathologists/million population in Taiwan was 14.83, which was comparable to that in Japan and South Korea but much smaller than that in Canada and the United States. The ratio of pathologists to physicians in Taiwan was 0.97%, which was higher than that in Japan (0.68%) and South Korea (0.64%), but lower than in Canada (1.32%) and the United States (1.46%). On average, 1.79% of medical graduates chose pathology for their R1 training in Taiwan, which was higher than that in the United States (1.50%) and Canada (1.10-1.20%). Anatomical pathology is no longer a specialty that is facing a physician shortage in Taiwan, and there is now a relatively high pathologist/physician ratio among Asian countries. We suggest that a decrease in the number of R1s in pathology is needed to maintain a balance between supply and demand. Copyright © 2011 Formosan Medical Association & Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Increased competition on the supply side of the Western European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, R.; Gjelsvik, E.; Rosendahl, K.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. The authors show--using a numerical model of the Western European natural gas market--that once the demand side of the market is liberalized, each gas-producing country has an incentive to break up its gas sellers. The model therefore suggests that there may be numerous producers in a liberalized natural gas market. Hence, in a liberalized market consumers will not be exploited by suppliers

  11. Long term prospect of demand and supply of energy in the world-mainly on the crude oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sagawa Naoto (The Inst. of Energy Economics, Tokyo, (Japan))

    1989-03-01

    At present, the world oil market is in the state of over supply, but concerning the long term prospect of oil price, there are a view, which is traditional, that the oil price goes up in 1990's and a view that the current over supply continues for a long time. In this article, a model predicting the world energy demand and supply is prepared and based upon this, a simulation of demand and supply is conducted. This model is conceptually divided into the following blocks, namely macroeconomy, energy demand, petrolium supply and price, coal supply and price, and natural gas supply and price. Main exogeneous variables are population, time trend, output of atomic power and hydroelectric power, oil production capability of OPEC, genuine amount of energy for exportation of the Communist circle, and distribution of energy source reserve, etc.. Main endogenous variables are economic growth rate, rate of inflation, price of the primary energy as well as that of the secondary energy, energy demand, and primary energy supply. As a result, in the year of 2,000, the crude oil price will be 20/bbl in case when a structural change takes place and 30/bbl in case of no such a change. 4 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. Forecasts of energy demand and supply, Australia 1982-83 to 1991-92

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-03-01

    The enegrgy demand and supply forecasts are based in part on the results of the Department's 1981 Fuel Use Survey supplemented by information obtained from other departments and industrial organisations and in part upon econometric techniques. Some features of the forecast are that Australia's total energy production will increase by 76% over the 10 years to 1991-92, with large increases in production of natural gas (123%), uranium (103%) and coal (65%) and that energy exports will increase by 186% with the ratio of exports to imports increasing from 5 to 21.9

  13. Price competition model in decentralized and centralized supply chains with demand disruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chai Wenlong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper studies the price competition of a supply chain with one supplier and two competing retailers under occasional demand disruption.Design/methodology/approach: The supply chain is either decentralized or centralized. The demand disruption for two retailers occurs with different probability. We analyze the effect of occurrence probability of demand disruption on the optimal prices of the supplier and two retailers.Findings: We find that the profits of supplier, retailers and supply chain are decreasing with the occurrence probability of demand disruption.Originality/value: It is helpful for supply chain members to adjust the original contracts to demand disruption.

  14. Interim report by a Committee on Demands and Supplies of Electric Enterprise Council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report by a committee on demands and supplies, Electric Enterprise Council, was given for the period up to the year 2000. The demands of electric power in Japan were set as 658,000 million kWh for 1990 and 768,000 million kWh for 1995. The electric power enterprises appear to be at a major turning point at present, that is, the growth in the demands tended to slow down. The features of the situation are then the stabilized supply, supply cost reduction, reasonable power source constitution, etc. The following things are described. Background and policy; power demand outlook and supply measures; power supply and supply efficiency (the composition of power sources, respective power sources with supply targets and problems, etc.); power demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  15. LPG consumption in the long term: supply, pricing demand with particular reference to the petrochemical sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shammas, P.

    1996-01-01

    Supply of LPG is forecast to grow over the next decade from the present level of 180 million t/y to about 185-190 million t/y, depending on demand in Asia which is rising rapidly and on new LPG export projects. Most of the increase in supply will come from new gas and crude oil production, from new LPG ventures, and from refineries reducing the n-butane content of motor gasoline. Pricing will remain volatile as a result of crude oil price volatility, variations in the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and as result of competition between ethane, PPG, naphtha and condensate as ethylene cracker feedstocks. Demand for LPG in OECD countries will continue to show steady growth. The increase in demand will be more rapid in the relatively less developed OECD countries, as the trend in Spain has shown in recent years. Provided that the LPG price is competitive, demand in China, South-East Asia and the Indian sub-continent could grow beyond current projections. Consumption in these countries will depend on the installation of distribution facilities and the rate at which LPG can substitute for traditional fuels and kerosene as well as compete for limited disposable incomes. (author)

  16. Full speed ahead on the Western Canada gas supply treadmill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flint, D.; Dixon, B.

    2005-01-01

    The sustainability of natural gas supply in Western Canada was discussed and a background of the Forward Energy Group Inc., was provided, including details of goals, investments and assets. Various challenges to sustainable supply were outlined, including details of total production, competing processes of decline and growth, rate additions from new wells and the fact that since 1989, wells onstream produce 80 per cent of all natural gas. Annual challenges include production and decline rates, as well as additional declines in base volumes of pre-1990 wells. Various industry responses were presented. Rate additions have responded to prices, cash flow, acquisition and capital markets. Growth has been punctuated by low investment. A composite decline was presented, revealing that the decline rate of all wells onstream were increasing. In addition, production gaps grow larger due to the increase of composite decline rates. It was noted that composite decline rates may stabilize. Other factors contributing to decline rates were reserves-based contracts, the absence of pipeline capacity and storage, as well as recession. Rate losses and rate additions were presented. Solution to address these challenges include low deliverability zones, new pools, new areas, tight gas, and technology. It was noted that all activity growth is from low deliverability wells. Rate additions by deliverability class, discovery period, and fracturing were provided. In addition, rate additions per foot drilled were also discussed. Various drivers of the Western Canada Sedimentary (WCSB) rate additions include world gas demand; North American gas supply; capital investment in WCSB; WCSB projects and competition; and capital efficiency. A chart of gas cash flow and investment was presented, as well as a forecast of increasing costs. It was concluded that the WCSB is an important supply source for North America and that the key challenge is to sustain production profitably. Higher prices and

  17. Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services: a longitudinal comparison in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwendicke, Falk; Jäger, Ralf; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; van den Berg, Neeltje

    2016-09-01

    Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity-related demand and the workforce-related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand-supply ratios in 2001 and 2011 in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Northern Germany). The spatial units were zip code areas. Demand per area was estimated by linking population-specific oral morbidities to working times via insurance claim data. Estimated demand was validated against the provided demand in 2001 and 2011. Supply was calculated for both years using cohort data from the dentist register. The ratio of demand and supply was geographically mapped and its distribution between areas assessed using the Gini coefficient. Between 2001 and 2011, a significant decrease of the general population (-7.0 percent), the annual demand (-13.1 percent), and the annual supply (-12.9 percent) was recorded. The estimated demands were nearly (2001: -4 percent) and completely (2011: ±0 percent) congruent with provided demands. The average demand-supply-ratio did not change significantly between 2001 and 2011 (P > 0.05), but was increasingly unequally distributed. In both years, few areas were over-serviced, while many were under-serviced. The established model can be used to estimate spatially specific demand and supply. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  18. Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

  19. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  20. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  1. Modelling of Sudan’s Energy Supply, Transformation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A. Rabah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to develop energy flow diagram (Sankey diagram of Sudan for the base year 2014. The developed Sankey diagram is the first of its kind in Sudan. The available energy balance for the base year 2012 is a simple line draw and did not count the energy supply by private and mixed sectors such as sugar and oil industries and marine and civil aviation. The private and mixed sectors account for about 7% of the national grid electric power. Four energy modules are developed: resources, transformation, demand, and export and import modules. The data are obtained from relevant Sudanese ministries and directorates and Sudan Central Bank. “e!Sankey 4 pro” software is used to develop the Sankey diagram. The main primary types of energy in Sudan are oil, hydro, biomass, and renewable energy. Sudan has a surplus of gasoline, petroleum coke, and biomass and deficit in electric power, gasoil, jet oil, and LPG. The surplus of gasoline is exported; however, the petroleum coke is kept as reserve. The deficit is covered by import. The overall useful energy is 76% and the loss is 24%. The useful energy is distributed among residential (38%, transportation (33%, industry (12%, services (16%, and agriculture (1% sectors.

  2. SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE SYRIAN LABOR MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allam YOUSUF

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is one of the most serious crises which confronts countries, and has many negative social effects; it justifies government intervention using mechanisms of the balance of supply and demand. It is one of the most severe problems that the Syrian labor market faces, which is under constant pressure because of the new flows of young people. The aim of this study is to shed light on the concepts which relate to the labor market, and provide a conceptual framework to understand the Syrian labor market during the war, as well as making some recommendations to help the Syrian labor market recover after the war. According to this study findings show that the unemployment rates in Syria remained stable during 2009 – 2010 (8.6%. Subsequently, the rate rose to (14.9% while in (2012 it rose sharply to (34.9 % as a result at the end of 2012 the unemployment rate was (26.8% higher than it was in 2009.

  3. The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fridley, D.

    1993-01-01

    It is reported that years of strong economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters -Indonesia, China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010, over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil. 1 ref., 5 figs, 2 tabs

  4. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Appendix to the technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 93 tabs., 13 figs

  5. Projected Alaskan royalty gas production and its relationship to projected natural gas demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobey, P.L.; O' Connor, K.M.; Gilbreth, O.K.; Miller, J.C.; Hamilton, H.H.

    1976-04-01

    Using conservative parameters for the natural gas surplus analysis, a Prudhoe Bay field royalty surplus above residential-commercial needs was found for all pipeline capacities. When the more probable pipeline throughputs are considered (2.0 and 2.5 billion cubic feet per day), surpluses of over 70 percent of the pipeline royalty capacities are present until 1990. The probable effect of future estimated energy production and proven additional gas reserves will insure a surplus above 90 percent of royalty gas for the entire twenty-year period in the 2.0 Bcf per day and 2.5 Bcf per day cases. The assumption that royalty gas will be needed to supply future power demands in the greater Anchorage area must be weighted against the high probability that additional coal-fired generators and hydroelectric power development will be available. After the present commitments of working gas are exhausted, the probable addition of a new alternate energy source added to the likelihood of additional commitments of working gas being acquired by suppliers would insure a solid royalty surplus after 1990.

  6. Optimizing a Military Supply Chain in the Presence of Random, Non-Stationary Demands

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yew

    2003-01-01

    ... logistics supply chain that satisfies uncertain, non-stationary demands, while taking into account the volatility and singularity of military operations This research focuses on the development...

  7. A policy study on energy supply and demand of several countries (China, Indonesia, Mexico)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Byung Ryeal [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    Korea is depending 97% of primary energy consumption on imports. To have a stable supply of energy required for a continuous growth, it is recommended to utilize international energy market actively for short-term while it is required to reinforce resources diplomacy with other countries with full of resources for mid- and long-term. This study reviewed energy supply and demand and major policies of China, Indonesia and Mexico, which give direct or indirect influence on energy supply and demand of Korea. With the geographical adjacency, Korea imports coal from China and exports petroleum products to China. Furthermore, it is very likely to have a trade related to nuclear power plant and natural gas. Indonesia exports coal, crude oil, and LNG to Korea. Especially LNG is occupied 60% of total amount of imports. It is expected to get help from Mexico because there are many similar aspects between Mexico and Korea such as GNP or a conservative idea on energy industry. (author). 49 refs., 6 figs., 42 tabs.

  8. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Szozda; Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    2013-01-01

    Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand plannin...

  9. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luchansky, Matthew S.; Monks, James

    2009-01-01

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  10. Demand Intensity, Market Parameters and Policy Responses towards Demand and Supply of Private Supplementary Tutoring in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Percy Lai Yin

    2010-01-01

    Based on some longitudinal studies of private tutoring in twelve cities, towns, municipalities and provinces of China, the paper endeavours to depict demand intensity, articulate market parameters and reflect on policy responses towards the demand-supply mechanism of the vast shadowy educational phenomena at primary and secondary levels. Such…

  11. Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

  12. Preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet U.S. transportation energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M. K.; Moore, J. S.

    2002-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that substitutes for conventional petroleum resources will be needed to meet U.S. transportation energy demand in the first half of this century. One possible substitute is natural gas which can be used as a transportation fuel directly in compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas vehicles or as resource fuel for the production of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. This paper contains a preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet future U.S. transportation fuel demand. Several scenarios of natural gas demand, including transportation demand, in the U.S. to 2050 are developed. Natural gas resource estimates for the U. S. are discussed. Potential Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S. are estimated. Two scenarios of potential imports from outside North America are also developed. Considering all these potential imports, U.S. natural gas production requirements to 2050 to meet the demand scenarios are developed and compared with the estimates of U.S. natural gas resources. The comparison results in a conclusion that (1) given the assumptions made, there are likely to be supply constraints on the availability of U.S. natural gas supply post-2020 and (2) if natural gas use in transportation grows substantially, it will have to compete with other sectors of the economy for that supply-constrained natural gas

  13. The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market-Model-based analysis until 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochner, Stefan [Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Albertus-Magnus-Platz, 50923 Cologne (Germany)], E-mail: Stefan.Lochner@uni-koeln.de; Bothe, David [Frontier Economics Limited, Wolfsstr. 16, 50667 Cologne (Germany)], E-mail: david.bothe@frontier-economics.com

    2009-04-15

    Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.

  14. The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market. Model-based analysis until 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lochner, Stefan [Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), Albertus-Magnus-Platz, 50923 Cologne (Germany); Bothe, David [Frontier Economics Limited, Wolfsstr. 16, 50667 Cologne (Germany)

    2009-04-15

    Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries. (author)

  15. The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market. Model-based analysis until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Stefan; Bothe, David

    2009-01-01

    Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries. (author)

  16. Mexican demand for US natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanter, M.A.; Kier, P.H.

    1993-09-01

    This study describes the Mexican natural gas industry as it exists today and the factors that have shaped the evolution of the industry in the past or that are expected to influence its progress; it also projects production and use of natural gas and estimates the market for exports of natural gas from the United States to Mexico. The study looks ahead to two periods, a near term (1993--1995) and an intermediate term (1996--2000). The bases for estimates under two scenarios are described. Under the conservative scenario, exports of natural gas from the United States would decrease from the 1992 level of 250 million cubic feet per day (MMCF/d), would return to that level by 1995, and would reach about 980 MMCF/D by 2000. Under the more optimistic scenario, exports would decrease in 1993 and would recover and rise to about 360 MMCF/D in 1995 and to 1,920 MMCF/D in 2000.

  17. Mexican demand for US natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanter, M.A.; Kier, P.H.

    1993-09-01

    This study describes the Mexican natural gas industry as it exists today and the factors that have shaped the evolution of the industry in the past or that are expected to influence its progress; it also projects production and use of natural gas and estimates the market for exports of natural gas from the United States to Mexico. The study looks ahead to two periods, a near term (1993--1995) and an intermediate term (1996--2000). The bases for estimates under two scenarios are described. Under the conservative scenario, exports of natural gas from the United States would decrease from the 1992 level of 250 million cubic feet per day (MMCF/d), would return to that level by 1995, and would reach about 980 MMCF/D by 2000. Under the more optimistic scenario, exports would decrease in 1993 and would recover and rise to about 360 MMCF/D in 1995 and to 1,920 MMCF/D in 2000

  18. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  19. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

  20. Oil and gas supply : hurdles and opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giusti, L. [Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC (United States)

    2006-07-01

    sufficient and Brazil has a modest dependency. The important players on the supply side include Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago. Also, Colombia is a player with its excellent exploration and production model, its stability and institutional strength. It was suggested that Bolivia could become an important player if changes take place to promote the development of its huge natural gas resources.

  1. Oil and gas supply : hurdles and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giusti, L.

    2006-01-01

    Brazil has a modest dependency. The important players on the supply side include Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago. Also, Colombia is a player with its excellent exploration and production model, its stability and institutional strength. It was suggested that Bolivia could become an important player if changes take place to promote the development of its huge natural gas resources

  2. Demand for storage of natural gas in northwestern Europe: Trends 2005-30

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeffler, Felix; Kuebler, Madjid

    2007-01-01

    We provide an estimation of the additional need for underground storage facilities in northwestern Europe until 2030. Storage is one important source to provide supply flexibility in order to match the seasonal demand for natural gas. However, this supply flexibility is now largely provided in northwestern Europe by indigenous production. Declining reserves will increase the dependency on imports from far-off sources, which are less flexible. Hence, flexibility must be provided by additional storage. Our estimation is based on production and consumption forecasts for natural gas and observations of the relationship between the supply and demand of gas and the supply and demand of flexibility in the period 1995-2005. We provide different scenarios to check for the robustness of our results. We estimate that by 2030, between 10.2 (with no strategic storage) and 29.0 billion cubic meters (BCM) of working gas volume (with 10 percent strategic storage for imports from non-EU countries) will be required, in addition to the existing 40 BCM. We conclude that, with well-functioning markets for flexibility, market forces could close a storage gap of 10.2 BCM in time. Strategic storage obligations would require state intervention and a well-balanced relation between a regulated part of the storage market for strategic reserves and the market for the operational use of storage

  3. Oil supply, demand and price; Offre, demande et prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2011-07-15

    To date the new millennium has seen a new twist in the history of oil. At the time of the last counter-shock, the IFP chairman declared. 'Our hero is no longer that of a Shakespearean drama of sound and fury. He has become just one of the players on a trivial theatre stage'. Peace lasted fifteen years, during which the barrel price fluctuated gently. But the oil price chronicle has become passionate once again and tragedy is stepping back in. Yet, this crisis is reminiscent of previous ones, those of the seventies and also of the 1910's, and its outcome could be surprisingly muted. Owing to inertia in production and consumption, the oil system is not responsive in the short run to sudden price variations, and the price rebound could go further as the economic situation improves; in the long term, however, innovation plays a primary role in both supply and demand functions, which have proven very flexible for 150 years, so a new period of balance could start by the twenties. (author)

  4. Ecosystem service trade-offs from supply to social demand: a landscape-scale spatial analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro, A.J.; Verburg, P.H.; Martin-Lopez, B.; Garcia-Llorente, M.; Vaughn, C.C.; Cabello, J.

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative studies that assess and map the relationship between the supply and social demand of ecosystem services are scarce. Here we address both supply and social demand sides by spatially analyzing ecosystem service trade-offs from three value-dimensions - i.e., biophysical, socio-cultural and

  5. Job Supply and Demand for University Graduates in Spain: A (Relative) Mismatch Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parellada, Marti; Duch, Nestor; Alvarez, Montserrat

    2009-01-01

    This article provides an analysis of job supply by Spanish firms and the demand for work, and the mismatch that occurs between these two variables. Data are taken for the year 2006, with particular attention to jobs offered by firms that require people with university degrees or other higher education qualifications. Demand and supply are broken…

  6. The determinants of the demand and supply of eggs in Ibadan, Oyo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed the major determinants for demand and supply of poultry products in Nigeria, using eggs as an example of poultry products and Ibadan as the case study area. Cross-Sectional survey was conducted for both demand and supply of eggs in Ibadan using pre-tested questionnaires. Stratified random ...

  7. U.S. hardwood fiber demand and supply situation : globalization and structural change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Irene Durbak

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews demand and supply trends for hardwood fiber in the United States. The objective is to illustrate nationwide shifts in demand and supply and show how the hardwood pulpwood market reacts to those shifts at a regional level. Thus, the market situation is illustrated using an economic rationale, and trends are projected under assumptions about future...

  8. Study of factors affecting demand and supply of sugar in Indonesia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is aimed at determining: (a) the factors influencing the demand of national sugar, and the price elasticity of demand (ep) and; (b) the factors influencing the supply of national sugar, and the price elasticity of supply (es). The data comprised a time series of 1990-2006, taken from the Central Statistics Bureau, The ...

  9. Research in the Netherlands on system integration. Analysis of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Werhoven, M.; Bruel, R.

    2000-07-01

    Results of studies on integrated systems can contribute to the realization of sustainability targets of the Dutch government. In this report an overview is given of the supply-side and the demand-side of energy-related research on system integration. Also, recommendations to improve the coordination between supply and demand are given. 14 refs

  10. Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

    1999-01-01

    Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

  11. time-series analysis of nigeria rice supply and demand: error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    O. Ojogho Ph.D

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  12. Mastering demand and supply uncertainty with combined product and process configuration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    The key challenge for mastering high uncertainty of both demand and supply is to attune products and business processes in the entire supply chain continuously to customer requirements. Product configurators have proven to be powerful tools for managing demand uncertainty. This paper assesses how

  13. Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  14. time-series analysis of nigeria rice supply and demand: error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    O. Ojogho Ph.D

    the two series have been changing which may continue for longer time than foreseen {Figure (1c)}. Figure (c) shows a forecast of rice supply and demand for Nigeria. It shows that beyond 2010, rice supply will permanently lead rice demand. This indicates that they either have time-varying means, time-varying variances or ...

  15. Gas supply for independent power projects: Drilling programs and reserve acquisitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, J.D.; Walker, R.K.

    1990-01-01

    Developers of gas-fired independent power projects, although drawn to gas as the fuel of choice for economic and environmental reasons, are finding the problem of cost-effective gas supply to be intractable. By one estimate, there are $6 billion worth of gas-fired projects languishing in the planning stage for want of long-term gas supply that is acceptable to project lenders. Worse still, as the authors are aware, some currently operating gas-fired projects lack such a supply, thus forcing the developer to rely on the spot market for gas as an interim (and unsatisfactory) solution. Although spot market prices in the deregulated natural gas industry have remained relatively low over several years, long-term gas supply has become problematic, particularly for power projects whose economics typically require an assured supply at a determined price over a multiyear period. In short, while there is an increasing demand for gas as a preferred source of fuel supply for power projects, there are discontinuities in the approaches taken to contracting for that supply by producers and developers. These concern primarily allocation of the risk of commodity-driven price increases during the term of the fuel supply contract. Without a means of accommodating price-related risk, the parties will inevitably find themselves at an impasse in contract negotiations. If there is a barrier to the independent power generation industry's vertical integration into gas production, it is the fundamental insularity of the two industries. As they have discovered, it may be indispensable for gas producers and power developers to employ intermediaries familiar with both industries in order to consummate appropriate joint-venture drilling programs and reserve acquisitions. Given the economic consequences of doing so successfully, however, they believe such programs and acquisitions may become an integral part of independent power developers' business strategy in the 1990s and beyond

  16. Natural gas demand in the European household sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsen, Odd Bjarte; Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar

    2005-08-01

    This paper analyzes the residential natural gas demand per capita in 12 European countries using a dynamic log linear demand model, which allows for country-specific elasticity estimates in the short- and long-run. The explanatory variables included lagged demand per capita, heating degree days index, real prices of natural gas, light fuel oil, electricity, and real private income per capita. The short-run own-price and income elasticity tend to be very inelastic, but with greater long-run responsiveness. By splitting the data set in two time periods, an increase in the own-price elasticities were detected for the European residential natural gas demand market as a whole. We have provided support for employing a heterogeneous estimator such as the shrinkage estimator. But the empirical results also motivate a further scrutiny of its properties. (Author)

  17. PROCESS MODELLING IN DEMAND-DRIVEN SUPPLY CHAINS: A REFERENCE MODELL FOR THE VEGETABLES INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo, Anett Krisztina

    2013-01-01

    The lifestyles are getting change and it is effect the customer needs and demands. Many different consumer segments is identified in the market. If the supply chain want to be competitive they have to react with suitable product in a good quality and quantity in time in the target market, with appropriate cost and information supply. If the demand drives the the well organised vegetables Supply Chain it can reach economy advantageous. The vegetables consumption is increasing steadily. The one...

  18. Forecast analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance in France for summer 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-05-01

    Under normal meteorological conditions, and notwithstanding localized risks associated with the vulnerability of certain regions, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance in continental France shows no particular risk for the entire summer 2013 period. Special vigilance is maintained in the Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur region, given the risk of forest fires and potential outages affecting the dual 400 kV link from Toulon. This assessment is based on the assumption that forecast demand for summer 2013 will remain broadly stable as compared with summer 2012, given public economic indicators, but also that the forecast availability of the French generating fleet will increase by 1100 MW compared with summer 2012. This increased availability is based on information supplied by generators, and notably includes scheduled temporary outages of certain combined cycle gas turbines. Finally, growth in photovoltaic generation (3,700 MW of installed capacity currently in France) is continuing at a sustained pace, leading to a 700 MW increase in the mean availability rate for this generation technology as compared with summer 2012. Moreover, the substantial investments already made by RTE or currently in progress to develop its network (voltage support measures, Cotentin-Maine line, etc.) have had a very positive impact on the reliability of the power system. (authors)

  19. China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

    2016-07-01

    As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

  20. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through operations and supply chain management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plambeck, Erica L.

    2012-01-01

    The experiences of the largest corporation in the world and those of a start-up company show how companies can profitably reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their supply chains. The operations management literature suggests additional opportunities to profitably reduce emissions in existing supply chains, and provides guidance for expanding the capacity of new “zero emission” supply chains. The potential for companies to profitably reduce emissions is substantial but (without effective climate policy) likely insufficient to avert dangerous climate change. - Highlights: ► Describes how firms are profitably reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their supply chains ► Highlights academic literature relevant to supply chain emission reduction

  1. A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Yalçıntaş

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

  2. Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.; Immerzeel, W.W.; Droogers, P.

    2013-01-01

    In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

  3. Electricity supply and demand analysis in electric system of Uruguay 2000-2007 period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This article is about the following topics: energy analysis, production and use, supply and demand, energy consumption evolution, energy sources, energy demand by economic sector between years 2000-2007, energy range, energy growing rate, demanding maximum power, growing maximum rate, exported and imported energy.

  4. Asynchronous Distributed Control of Biogas Supply and Multienergy Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alkano, Desti; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.; Chorfi, Younes

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the coordination between biogas producers who can use the biogas themselves, exchange biogas with their neighbors, or deliver it to the various energy grids, such as the low pressure gas grid or the power grid. These producers are called prosumers. In this setting, gas

  5. Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

  6. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Szozda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

  7. Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Stefan; Dieckhöner, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports into several European countries. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable. The analysis thereby highlights the importance of taking the political stability of supply countries into account when assessing the security of European gas imports. - Highlights: ► Impact of political instability on security of natural gas supplies. ► Analysis of export stop during Libyan civil war in 2011. ► Model-based analysis of potential future North African crisis scenarios. ► Findings: spread of uprisings to Algeria more critical for Europe. ► Price effects and potential demand curtailment for consumers.

  8. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  9. Creating hourly distributions at national level for various energy demands and renewable energy supplies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, David; Drysdale, Dave; Hansen, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    being recorded over longer time horizons, for example over one day. In this paper, a methodology is presented for creating hourly distributions for energy systems analysis tools. On the demand side, hourly distributions are developed for electricity, heating, cooling, and transport while the supply side...... includes wind, solar (photovoltaic and thermal), and wave power. Distributions are not created for dispatchable plants, such as coal, gas, and nuclear thermal plants, since their output is usually determined by the energy modelling tool rather than by a dependent resource. The methodologies are purposely...... based on generic data sources so it can be utilised for any country. Where possible, the results are compared against existing data. If available, local bottom-up data should be prioritised, but if not, then this methodology offers an estimation of the short-term variations expected....

  10. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Intaher M. Ambe

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.

  11. The effect of waiting times on demand and supply for elective surgery: Evidence from Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riganti, Andrea; Siciliani, Luigi; Fiorio, Carlo V

    2017-09-01

    Waiting times are a major policy concern in publicly funded health systems across OECD countries. Economists have argued that, in the presence of excess demand, waiting times act as nonmonetary prices to bring demand for and supply of health care in equilibrium. Using administrative data disaggregated by region and surgical procedure over 2010-2014 in Italy, we estimate demand and supply elasticities with respect to waiting times. We employ linear regression models with first differences and instrumental variables to deal with endogeneity of waiting times. We find that demand is inelastic to waiting times while supply is more elastic. Estimates of demand elasticity are between -0.15 to -0.24. Our results have implications on the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing supply and their ability to reduce waiting times. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Team formation : Matching quality supply and quality demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boon, BH; Sierksma, G

    2003-01-01

    One of the problems in sports and human resources management is the scouting or headhunting of new team members to fill open positions and to enhance the quality of the team. Also to measure whether everyone is on the right place, meaning that (the supply of) all qualities of the employees are

  13. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  14. Uruguaian rural area: energy demand and sources supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reolon, R.

    1994-01-01

    The present work is about the energy demand in rural areas and its electrification like one of the factors of its residents maintenance, in the means that they are essential for the development but intensive of agrarian intensity, nevertheless we will try to determine their quantity and the character one of them

  15. Supply of online environmental information to unknown demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, K.A.J.; Ioris, A.; Macleod, C.; Han, X.; Sripada, Y.; Braga, J.; Wal, van der R.

    2015-01-01

    Public authorities that collect data on the environment increasingly offer online public access to information, but they do not always consider by whom such information is used and for what purposes. And where they do, demand may not be homogenous or sufficiently known, thus adding to the

  16. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    their cultures are diversified, a combination that is very suitable for tourism development. It is a place where nature, culture, and history merge to form a timeless appeal. (MOCT, Ethiopia: A Tourist Paradise). 2.4 Importance of Forecasting for the Tourism Industry. Forecasting tourism demand is important for tourism planning ...

  17. Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan

    2016-01-01

    Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.

  18. Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter period 2009-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-10-01

    Every year, RTE conducts a prospective study of the balance between supply and demand for electricity for the coming winter period, covering the whole of mainland France. This period of the year is looked at closely, primarily due to the high levels of electricity demand seen during cold snaps. The study by RTE is used to identify periods where the supply-demand balance comes under strain; it explores the measures that can be taken by electricity market players and RTE to avoid any interruption in supply during peak demand periods in France. RTE is responsible for managing the balance between supply and demand for electricity in mainland France, in real time. To do this, it anticipates potential risks that may supply may come under strain - well in advance - and informs market players. If periods are identified where the supply-demand balance comes under strain, RTE works with the electricity generators to look at possible ways of altering the schedules for shutting down generating units, and takes account of the possibilities for demand response (load reduction) reported by suppliers. As a last resort, if these preemptive measures prove insufficient and the situation becomes critical, RTE alerts the government of the risk that supply will be interrupted, and takes action in real time to limit the impact on the power system. For temperatures close to seasonal norms, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance appears significantly less favourable than last winter until the end of January. Imports could be required between mid-November 2009 and the end of January 2010, to cover electricity demand in France and satisfy the technical security margin stipulated by RTE. To do this, suppliers would have to look to the European markets, in addition to activating demand response (load reduction) possibilities with their customer portfolios. In the event of an intense and sustained spell of cold weather, the technical limit for imports into the French

  19. Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2011 Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Working under the aegis of public authorities, RTE periodically prepares and makes public a multi-annual forecast of the electricity supply-demand balance in France, as required by law. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the ability of the French power system, in interaction with neighbouring systems, to properly satisfy demand, based on the likeliest scenarios for trends in demand, demand response and generation

  20. A Composite Contract for Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Effort Dependent Stochastic Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Shuang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As the demand is more sensitive to price and sales effort, this paper investigates the issue of channel coordination for a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer facing price and effort dependent stochastic demand. A composite contract based on the quantity-restricted returns and target sales rebate can achieve coordination in this setting. Two main problems are addressed: (1 how to coordinate the decentralized supply chain; (2 how to determine the optimal sales effort level, pricing, and inventory decisions under the additive demand case. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of combined contract in supply chain coordination and highlight model sensitivities to parametric changes.

  1. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  2. Uranium and enrichment supply and demand - Facts and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stobbs, J.

    1990-01-01

    The author summarizes the general characteristics of the uranium and enrichment markets as follows: both markets have significant overcapacity; the situation has resulted from the past sales policies of producers and in part from the purchasing policies of the buyers; new low-price supply sources have appeared on the market; a continuing low level of spot prices and the perception of plentiful future supply will clearly influence buyer procurement strategies by pushing towards spot or short-term purchases or of tying long-term prices to the spot price. Data supporting the above conclusions provide a historical perspective since the mid 1970's and projections of market changes through the turn of the century

  3. Natural gas supply strategies for European energy market actors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girault, Vincent

    2007-06-01

    The liberalization of the European energy markets leads to the diversification of supplies. Hence, we analyse the natural gas importation problem in a power producer point of view. Upstream and downstream natural gas markets are concentrated. In this oligopoly context, our topic is to focus on strategies which modify natural gas sourcing price. This by studying the surplus sharing on the natural gas chain. A European firm can bundle gas and electricity outputs to increase its market share. Therefore, a bundling strategy of a power producer in competition with a natural gas reseller on the final European energy market increases upstream natural gas price. Bundling also acts as a raising rival cost strategy and reduces the rivals' profit. Profits opportunities incite natural gas producers to enter the final market. Vertical integration between a natural gas producer and a European gas reseller is a way, for producers, to catch end consumer surplus. Vertical integration results in the foreclosure of the power producer on the upstream natural gas market. To be active on the natural gas market, the power producer could supply bundles. But, this strategy reallocates the rent. The integrated firm on natural gas gets the rent of electricity market in expenses of the power producer. Then, a solution for the power producer is to supply gas and electricity as complements. Then, we consider a case where vertical integration is not allowed. Input price discrimination by a monopolist leads to a lower natural gas price for the actor which diversifies its supplying sources. Furthermore, a bundling strategy increases the gap between the price proposed to the firm which also diversify its output and the firm which is fully dependent from the producer to supply natural gas on final market. (author)

  4. Publish and Subscribe Pattern for Designing Demand Driven Supply Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Gnimpieba Zanfack, David,; Nait-Sidi-Moh, Ahmed; Durand, David; Fortin, Jérôme

    2015-01-01

    Part 2: Assessment Approaches; International audience; Logistic flows, business process management and collaboration remain a major problem in the supply chain. In this article we are going through this issue to propose an integrative and collaborative approach. More precisely, we develop a cloud-based and service-oriented bus for business interoperability for logistic flows. Though the bus, we define protocols and standards allowing the integration of data formats which are for the most prop...

  5. Recent rapid increases in the demand for city gas in manufacturing industries and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusano, Shigero

    1992-01-01

    City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world

  6. Diversification of gas supplies to Romania: options and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, A.

    1996-01-01

    The issue of diversifying natural gas supply to Romania gained importance after 1989. Currently, there are several factors which reinforce the need for the diversification: energy consumption structure; ratio of domestic production to import and traditionally strong natural gas industry. The mentioned points lead to the conclusion that ROMGAZ has to integrate further into the European gas market, to diversify sources of supply and to attract foreign investments. It is clear that the supply diversification depends on three crucial factors: economic recovery (partially achieved after 1992); general price stability (ending permanent depreciation of lev against US dollar); and raising natural gas prices to economic levels. Once those factors are in place, the possibility of gas supply diversification would become more tangible

  7. Supply and demand estimates for the nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haussermann, W.; Hogroian, P.; Krymm, R.; Cameron, J.

    1977-01-01

    Based on the nuclear power growth forecasts described in the papers for Session I.B., estimates of requirements in the nuclear fuel cycle are given, notably concerning: - natural uranium, - enriched uranium, - fuel fabrication services, and - reprocessing services. The influence of realistic scenarios of uranium and plutonium recycling on fuel cycle requirements is discussed. Furthermore, the known plans for uranium and related fuel cycle production capacities are compared with the foreseeable demand. These estimates cover the period between now and the year 2000. However, in order to determine the influence of possible variations in reactor strategies on uranium demand, notably the introduction of breeder reactors, power growth projections and resulting fuel cycle requirements beyond the year 2000 are also briefly considered [fr

  8. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  9. Mud Bugs: Supply, Demand, and Natural Resources in Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Louisiana's land, coast, and inland waterways are home to many natural resources such as seafood, petroleum, natural gas, and timber--and freshwater crawfish, or "mudbugs" as the locals like to call them. These natural resources are vital to Louisiana's economy. The author describes a unit of study on economics in which a teacher taught…

  10. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2016 edition + executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    After a presentation of the elaboration framework of this generation adequacy report, and of the objectives of the risk analysis, this report proposes a detailed analysis of electricity consumption in France. It describes the main determining factors of electric power consumption: energy efficiency, economic growth, demography, and transfers and new uses of electricity. It proposes a sector-based analysis of energy demand (housing sector, office building sector, industrial sector, transport, energy and agriculture sectors), and an assessment of perspectives for power consumption. It also proposes a power-based analysis of electricity consumption: influence of temperature on electricity consumption, analysis of the load curve, perspectives for electricity consumption peak. The next part addresses the evolution of electricity supply in France. It presents the existing production fleet, proposes an overview of renewable energies (ground-based wind energy, offshore wind energy and marine energies, solar photovoltaic energy, bio-energies, hydraulic energy), presents some characteristics of the French nuclear fleet (installed capacity, availability), analyses the flame-based thermal fleet (oil-based, coal-based, gas-based combined, combustion turbine, and decentralised thermal installations). It also discusses the issue of load management, and proposes a synthetic overview of the electricity production fleet (supply evolutions on the medium term, evolutions with respect to the 2015 provisional assessment). The next chapter reports a risk analysis on the medium term by presenting indicators of supply safety, by proposing a failure risk analysis (diagnosis on the medium term, comparison with the previous provisional assessment, sensitivity to extreme events), by presenting energy assessments, by reporting sensitivity analysis (to consumption hypotheses, to hypotheses related to the development of renewable energies, to hypotheses related to the nuclear fleet), by reporting

  11. Modeling and simulation of the power demand and supply of a hydrothermal power generating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronini, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    Security of supply of electric energy is measured by the capacity to cover the energy demand and power of a supply grid. This coverage is important because the winter peak load period in Switzerland will become problematical in the near future. The objective of this research project is to analyze the ability of a power generating system to satisfy the power requirements of the corresponding supply network. The behaviour of the energy system in critical cases (loss of the largest generator, lack of available power from an external supplier or reduced capacity for energy storage) is tested for the present situation and for the rise in the annual load. The simulation of the load of the supply network is carried out by using a model developed for this project. This model is based on the analysis of half-hourly changes of load and on the statistical maximum values. The power generating system consists of nuclear generating units, hydro units with large reservoirs, run of the river installations and imported energy. Standby units such as gas turbines, spot market and coal-fired power stations are also available. Stochastic and deterministic energy and power models have been developed for the various power stations of the hydrothermal power system. In the case of nuclear power stations, a model has been developed on the basis of the output level, production losses and time and length of outages. The possible feeder streams of the run of the river installations and of the hydro units with a large reservoir are simulated using stochastic methods based on the historical values of the last 35 years. The commitment of the hydro units depends on the peak load requirements. The load and capacity over a period of several days and weeks have been simulated with stochastic models based on the Monte Carlo method and constantly (by half hour intervals) compared. In this manner each month can be simulated. (author) figs., tabs., 46 refs

  12. Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

    2016-05-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

  13. An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

    2014-05-01

    In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

  14. Supply, Demand, and the Internet--Economic Lessons for Microeconomic Principles Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englander, Fred; Moy, Ronald L.

    2003-01-01

    Addresses issues related to the ways in which the Internet is affecting supply and demand, competition, property rights, information costs, and economies of scale. Suggests ways to incorporate these topics into the study of microeconomics. (Contains 19 references.) (SK)

  15. Business process modelling in demand-driven agri-food supply chains : a reference framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.

    2010-01-01

    Keywords: Business process models; Supply chain management; Information systems; Reference information models; Market orientation; Mass customisation; Configuration; Coordination; Control; SCOR; Pot plants; Fruit industry Abstract The increasing volatility and diversity of demand urge agri-food

  16. DemandSupply – Taxation in Times of Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diaconasu Delia Elena

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The confrontation of the two doctrines, the Keynesianism and the Supply-side economics highlight that the Laffer perspective is the way to achieve solid economic growth on the long way and aims the core of an “exit from crisis” policy. Therefore, this article aims to analyze the hypothesis that a high level of taxation and public spending deters productive behavior and reduces economic growth during recessions. In other words, an easy taxation and low unproductive public spending are desirable for both, the enterprising investor and the consumer. Using the example of Romanian fiscal policy, on one side, we validated within a Vector Error Correction framework that an increase in government revenues harms consumption, investment and the level of employment, in conjunction with a procyclical behavior of fiscal authorities. On the other side, our results showed some positive effects of an increased government expenditures on consumption and employment, which can be explained by the accelerate deterioration of primary balance deficit and the Central Bank’s low interest rate. Moreover, even though the initial positive response of investment to a government spending shock is positive, this is ephemeral and nonsignificant. Our findings highlight that, in order to reach growth on the long-run in times of crisis, the Romanian economy should adopt the fiscal policy and measures suggested by the Supply-side Economics.

  17. A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

  18. Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    A steady increase of natural gas demand can be observed in Europe over the last decades. Due to the European obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the trend toward natural gas is expected to continue in the future. The increased consumption is faced by comparably low indigenous gas resources within Europe, so that the dependency of Europe on gas imports from abroad will rise in the future. In addition to the existing supply sources Russia and Algeria, gas resources from the Middle East and the Caspian and the Central Asian regions may be supply options to cover Europe's gas demand in the future. Against this background, possible natural gas supply options as well as the transport infrastructure to and within Europe are discussed regarding their technical capacity and their costs. With the help of a cost-minimization model of the European gas supply system, the gas flows and the infrastructure capacity development up to the year 2030 are analyzed. In a sensitivity analysis, the impacts of demand variations on the choice of supply sources are studied. (author)

  19. Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claire A. Montgomery

    1989-01-01

    A model of U.S. housing demand and supply was developed that projects housing starts for use in long-term forest planning. Housing demand was shown to respond to the current sale price and the user capital cost of housing and to the size and age composition of the population. Current sale price is determined in the new construction market. Supply of new construction...

  20. Proceedings of the workshop on world oil supply-demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, K.C. (ed.)

    1977-01-01

    Twelve papers and four panel discussions are included. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper. The panel discussions were on: technical and physical policy elements affecting world oil supply and demand; financial, tax, and tariff issues in world oil supply and demand; the world economy as influenced by world oil prices and availability; the use of models and analysis in the policy process. (DLC)

  1. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ir. J. Bekkering; prof. dr. Wim van Gemert; A.A. Broekhuis; Drs. E.J. Hengeveld

    2015-01-01

    energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. This supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A defined reference scenario reflects the current state of

  2. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, J.; Hengeveld, E. J.; van Gemert, W. J. T.; Broekhuis, A. A.

    2015-01-01

    The energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A reference scenario was defined which

  3. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, S. L.; McMahon, T. A.; Walton, A.; Lewis, J.

    2002-03-01

    A time series forecasting model of hourly water consumption 24 h in advance for an urban zone within the Melbourne (Australia) water supply system is developed. The model comprises two modules—daily and hourly. The daily module is formulated as a set of equations representing the effects of three factors on water use namely seasonality, climatic correlation, and autocorrelation. The hourly module is developed to disaggregate the estimated daily consumption into hourly consumption. The models were calibrated using hourly and daily data for a 6 year period, and independently validated over an additional seven month period. Over this latter period, the hourly forecast model accounted for 66% of the variance in the peak hourly water consumption with a standard error of 162 l/p/d.

  4. Supply and demand in physician markets: a panel data analysis of GP services in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Ian; Butler, James R G

    2014-09-01

    To understand the trends in any physician services market it is necessary to understand the nature of both supply and demand, but few studies have jointly examined supply and demand in these markets. This study uses aggregate panel data on general practitioner (GP) services at the Statistical Local Area level in Australia spanning eight years to estimate supply and demand equations for GP services. The structural equations of the model are estimated separately using population-weighted fixed effects panel modelling with the two stage least squares formulation of the generalised method of moments approach (GMM (2SLS)). The estimated price elasticity of demand of [Formula: see text] is comparable with other studies. The direct impact of GP density on demand, while significant, proves almost immaterial in the context of near vertical supply curves. Supply changes are therefore due to shifts in the position of the curves, partly determined by a time trend. The model is validated by comparing post-panel model predictions with actual market outcomes over a period of three years and is found to provide surprisingly accurate projections over a period of significant policy change. The study confirms the need to jointly consider supply and demand in exploring the behaviour of physician services markets.

  5. The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

    2012-01-01

    In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

  6. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Youngho

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

  7. A Policy study on stabilization of heating oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Bok Jae [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    As a principal heating fuel for household and commercial sector, and a heat source fuel for industry, the heating oil shows its great demand intensively during a specific period (wintertime) due to its characteristics. It represents that the fluctuation of heating oil demand throughout the year is very extreme. Therefore, the stable supply of heating oil has been rising as an important task. It is desirable to develop and supply a new type of heating oil compounded of kerosene and gasoline with appropriate ratio for short- and mid-term to have a stable supply and demand of heating oil. For long-term prospect, it is desirable to supply petroleum products mixing gasoline and B-C oil as heating oil when it is equipped with combustion technology of boiler and distribution system. In this case, it is required to have investment on infrastructure for the supply of new heating oil (mixture of gasoline and B-C oil) and a proper preparatory period for the conversion of equipment (such as a boiler). The vitalization of storing oil is essential to stabilize the supply and demand of heating oil. In order to vitalize it, the price of heating oil should be determined by a market function reflecting the seasonal supply and demand circumstances. (author). 101 refs., 5 figs., 83 tabs.

  8. A Supply and Demand Management Perspective on the Accelerated Global Introductions of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in a Constrained Supply Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ian; Ottosen, Ann; Rubin, Jennifer; Blanc, Diana Chang; Zipursky, Simona; Wootton, Emily

    2017-07-01

    A total of 105 countries have introduced IPV as of September 2016 of which 85 have procured the vaccine through UNICEF. The Global Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 called for the rapid introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization schedules in 126 all OPV-using countries by the end of 2015. At the time of initiating the procurement process, demand was estimated based on global modeling rather than individual country indications. In its capacity as procurement agency for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF set out to secure access to IPV supply for around 100 countries. Based on offers received, sufficient supply was awarded to two manufacturers to meet projected routine requirements. However, due to technical issues scaling up vaccine production and an unforecasted demand for IPV use in campaigns to interrupt wild polio virus and to control type 2 vaccine derived polio virus outbreaks, IPV supplies are severely constrained. Activities to stretch supplies and to suppress demand have been ongoing since 2014, including delaying IPV introduction in countries where risks of type 2 reintroduction are lower, implementing the multi-dose vial policy, and encouraging the use of fractional dose delivered intradermally. Despite these efforts, there is still insufficient IPV supply to meet demand. The impact of the supply situation on IPV introduction timelines in countries are the focus of this article, and based on lessons learned with the IPV introductions, it is recommended for future health programs with accelerated scale up of programs, to take a cautious approach on supply commitments, putting in place clear allocation criteria in case of shortages or delays and establishing a communication strategy vis a vis beneficiaries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  9. Strategic planning of building stock. Adjusting quality of demand and supply focusing on energy saving measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-06-01

    This working book aims at supporting the strategic supply management and the associated daily practice of housing management, from vision to implementation. Strategic supply management is defined as offering living qualities that are in demand now and in the future. [mk] [nl

  10. A framework for modelling business processes in demand-driven supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2011-01-01

    Demand-driven supply chains are highly dynamic networks of different participants with different allocations of business processes and different modes of control and coordination. Companies must be able to take part in multiple supply chain configurations concurrently and to switch rapidly to new or

  11. A Comparison of Supply and Demand for PETE Professionals in Higher Education in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, B. Ann; Rikard, G. Linda

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the supply and demand issues of D-PETE professionals in higher education. The three concerns addressed were: (a) doctoral graduates and their respective job placements in the academic years of 1996-97 through 2008-09, (b) an examination of two targeted academic years (2005-06 and 2008-09) to determine the supply of entry level…

  12. Current economic downturn and supply chain : The significance of demand and inventory smoothing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cannella, S.; Ashayeri, J.; Miranda, P.A.; Bruccoleri, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply

  13. The Supply and Demand of Elementary and Secondary School Teachers in the United States. ERIC Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasin, Said

    This Digest examines U.S. teacher supply and demand, including projections for the next 10 years. For the past 10 years, the supply of public elementary and secondary school teachers has grown. Currently, the number of teachers in the United States is 3.1 million, 2,666,034 of whom teach in public schools. The number is projected to increase by…

  14. Hybrid positioning mode of VOP and OPP in demand-supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yuan, X.; Zhang, L.; Ashayeri, J.; Qi, E.; Shen, J.; Zou, A.; Dou, R.

    2012-01-01

    In traditional supply chain management, suppliers usually have to balance their cost and the service they offer to customers, while nowadays they are trying best to improve their efficiency as well as the service offered. Therefore, it becomes crucial for suppliers to modify the Demand-Supply Chain.

  15. The natural gas: to guarantee a reasonable cost supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The France has got only a few natural gas resources, which will disappear in 2013. Thus it essentially depends on international markets for its supplying. Most of the supplying contracts are long dated contracts indexed on the petroleum products. Since 2005 the pressures of the petroleum and gas markets produce tariffs increases. Facing this situation the Government implemented a tariff fixation policy. (A.L.B.)

  16. DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2016-01-01

    Fine-grained device-level predictions of both shiftable and non-shiftable energy demand and supply is vital in order to take advantage of Demand Response (DR) for efficient utilization of Renewable Energy Sources. The selection of an effective device-level load forecast model is a challenging task......, mainly due to the diversity of the models and the lack of proper tools and datasets that can be used to validate them. In this paper, we introduce the DeMand system for fine-tuning, analyzing, and validating the device-level forecast models. The system offers several built-in device-level measurement...... datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

  17. Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spalding-Fecher, R

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study presents long-term electricity supply and demand scenarios for the twelve countries in the Southern African Power Pool, based on detailed bottom-up demand analysis for all countries and a set of internally consistent development scenarios...

  18. Linking demand and supply factors in identifying cultural ecosystem services of urban green infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegetschweiler, K. Tessa; de Vries, Sjerp; Arnberger, Arne

    2017-01-01

    characteristics of the ecosystem. We conducted a review of publications dealing with demand or social factors such as user needs, preferences and values as well as spatially explicit supply or physical factors such as amount of green space, (bio)diversity, recreational infrastructure, etc. and linking demand...... applicability for urban management and planning...

  19. Data Science in Supply Chain Management: Data-Related Influences on Demand Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yao

    2013-01-01

    Data-driven decisions have become an important aspect of supply chain management. Demand planners are tasked with analyzing volumes of data that are being collected at a torrential pace from myriad sources in order to translate them into actionable business intelligence. In particular, demand volatilities and planning are vital for effective and…

  20. Finding the food-fuel balance. Supply and demand dynamics in global vegetable oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savanti, P.

    2012-10-15

    Demand for vegetable oils for food and biofuel use is expected to increase by an additional 23 million tonnes by 2016; however supply is expected to struggle to keep up with this demand, according to this Rabobank report. Vegetable oil stocks have reached a 38 year low this year due in large part to constraints such as land availability and adverse weather.

  1. Industrial natural gas supply options in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Information is provided on the availability and cost of natural gas in British Columbia for use by firms interested in establishing gas-intensive industrial facilities in the province. British Columbia has an abundant supply of natural gas, originating mainly from deposits in the westernmost part of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in the northeast part of the province. Recoverable resources in British Columbia are estimated at 1,000-1,400 billion m 3 . Over 200 producers compete to sell natural gas for both domestic and export markets. Gathering, processing, and transmission of the gas is undertaken mainly by the Westcoast Energy pipeline system, and distribution is undertaken by several distribution utilities. At present, all large industrial gas users buy their firm gas requirements directly from gas producers, often using gas marketers or brokers to assist in purchasing. Regulation of the gas industry is performed by the British Columbia Utilities Commission, which sets rules for energy supply contracts, and by the National Energy Board, which sets tolls for gathering, processing, and transporting gas. Factors affecting gas pricing are discussed, with reference to both the wellhead price and the cost of gathering, processing, and transportation. Firm gas costs for two hypothetical industrial loads in British Columbia are illustrated. Potential intensive uses of natural gas in the province are outlined, including power generation, liquefaction for export, manufacturing, production of direct reduced iron, and as petrochemical feedstocks. 5 figs., 2 tabs

  2. Long term natural gas supply in North America: prospects for mexican exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elizalde Baltierra, A.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect future Mexican natural gas exports to the United States. Firstly, we study the long term natural gas supply/demand balance in North America over the period from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, we analyze the main driving forces determining future natural gas supply and demand in Mexico, which also allows us to discuss the prospects for Mexican gas exports. Finally, our analysis suggests that: in the short and medium term (2000-2010), Mexico will probably continue to increase imports of USA gas in order to satisfy increasing demand and will probably not export large volumes of gas to the USA; in the long term (2020-2020), Mexico could resume exports to the USA in sizeable quantities. Two main conditions appear necessary to resume exports: Premex's budgetary constraints should be relaxed and/or new foreign investment should be able to participate in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector. (author)

  3. Natural graphite demand and supply - Implications for electric vehicle battery requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Donald W.; Virta, Robert L.; Mahdavi, Mahbood; Sangine, Elizabeth S.; Fortier, Steven M.

    2016-01-01

    Electric vehicles have been promoted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen U.S. dependence on petroleum for transportation. Growth in U.S. sales of electric vehicles has been hindered by technical difficulties and the high cost of the lithium-ion batteries used to power many electric vehicles (more than 50% of the vehicle cost). Groundbreaking has begun for a lithium-ion battery factory in Nevada that, at capacity, could manufacture enough batteries to power 500,000 electric vehicles of various types and provide economies of scale to reduce the cost of batteries. Currently, primary synthetic graphite derived from petroleum coke is used in the anode of most lithium-ion batteries. An alternate may be the use of natural flake graphite, which would result in estimated graphite cost reductions of more than US$400 per vehicle at 2013 prices. Most natural flake graphite is sourced from China, the world's leading graphite producer. Sourcing natural flake graphite from deposits in North America could reduce raw material transportation costs and, given China's growing internal demand for flake graphite for its industries and ongoing environmental, labor, and mining issues, may ensure a more reliable and environmentally conscious supply of graphite. North America has flake graphite resources, and Canada is currently a producer, but most new mining projects in the United States require more than 10 yr to reach production, and demand could exceed supplies of flake graphite. Natural flake graphite may serve only to supplement synthetic graphite, at least for the short-term outlook.

  4. Analysis and Strategies of the Unbalance of the Supply and Demand in the Higher Education Market of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie

    2010-01-01

    The popularization of higher education largely impacts the balance of the supply and demand of the China higher education market. Starting from the basic concepts of the supply and demand of higher education, the actuality and influencing factors of the supply and demand in China higher education market are analyzed in this article, and…

  5. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. EU Security of Gas Supplies: Solidarity Runs Through the Pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoun, Marie-Claire; Rutten, Daan

    2016-05-01

    The ongoing efforts to lessen the European Union's (EU) vulnerability to gas shortages by adopting internal measures were triggered by the Ukrainian gas disputes of 2006 and 2009. The latter deprived several EU Member States of 20% of their gas supplies (30% of imports) for 14 days in the middle of winter due to tensions with Russia. This prompted Member States in 2010 to adopt a Regulation for the Security of Gas Supply, replacing the skeletal 2004 Directive. Since 2014, tensions have increased significantly between the EU and Russia, the block's main gas supplier. Although this has not led to any gas supply disruptions in Europe, and this time Ukraine has been able to revert to reverse flows, national production and storage withdrawals to replace the Russian gas flows, there remains a perceived elevated risk of gas supply disruptions to the EU, especially by certain Member States. This led the European Commission (EC) to publish its first-ever European Energy Security Strategy in May 2014, which was followed by the Gas Stress Tests of October 2014. In February 2015, the EC published its Energy Union Strategy Framework, which was strongly motivated by energy security concerns. In that context, the EC announced a series of proposals for its gas and electricity markets in 2016 and 2017, among which was the 'Sustainable Energy Security Package' (hereafter: Package). This Package, published in February 2016, consists of four proposals. Two of them have a legislative nature, namely a Regulation for Security of Gas Supply and a Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements on energy. The two non-legislative proposals are strategy papers dealing respectively with LNG and Gas Storage, and Heating and Cooling. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the proposed Regulation and to offer considerations on some of its provisions, in particular on the move from the national to the regional level of cooperation and on the legislative formalization of solidarity

  7. Current supply and demand of veterinarians in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuaki Sugiura

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Since 1966, approximately 1 000 veterinarians graduate each year from 16 veterinary schools in Japan. According to reports submitted by veterinarians to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in January 2007, there were over 35 818 veterinarians in Japan at the end of 2006. Of this total, 13 202 (36.8% were engaged in companion animal practice, 9 112 (25.4% were civil servants and 4 180 (11.7% were engaged in food animal practice. The total number of veterinarians has increased gradually over the past 40 years. Recently, the number of veterinarians engaged in companion animal practice has increased while the number of veterinarians engaged in food animal practice is declining. These trends reflect the change in demand for veterinarians in food and companion animal practice, resulting mainly from changes in the number of food animals and companion animals in recent years. The number of veterinarians in the public sector has decreased gradually due to the administrative reforms of recent years.

  8. Economic and energy supply and demand outlook towards FY 2014 of Japan. Japan was in a crucial moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagisawa, Akira; Yoshioka, Takayuki; Suzuki, Hidenori; Choi, Jongwon; Ikarii, Ryohei; Iwata, Sohei; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Ito, Kokichi

    2014-01-01

    This outlook showed prospects of economy and energy supply and demand (S and D) towards FY2014 of Japan taking account of Japanese economy recovery thanks to 'Abenomics', unclear power S and D balance, restarts of NPPs and increase in renewables dominated by solar PV. Impacts of restart of NPPs were so great and hoped prompt procedures after finishing the highest-level safety assessment. Fast expansion of renewables generating 7% of power generation and their increased burden on consumers (Feed-In-Tariff) required system improvements for adequate and sustainable introduction of renewables. Impacts of removing customs by the TPP increased energy demand due to the economic expansion by 0.9%. Primary energy supply turned to increase due to the expansion of the economic activities while electricity savings and energy conservation exerted downward pressure on demand. As for Macro economy, GDP growth slowed due to retroaction decrease by the last-minute demand of tax raise. Energy consumption decreased in two years due to slowing recovery and both natural gas and coal consumption hit new high. Steady growth of city gas, slight increase of electricity and sharp drop of fuel oil would be for energy sales. CO 2 emissions decreased in FY2014 after hit the historical high in FY2013. (T. Tanaka)

  9. Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

    1982-01-01

    A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

  10. [Supply-demand level and development capability of Harbin urban ecosystem].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chun-miao; Shang, Jin-cheng

    2009-01-01

    To measure the supply-demand level and the development capability of urban ecolsystem is the prerequisite in ensuring urban sustainable development. By using the analysis model of ecological footprint and the improved model of urban ecological carrying capacity, the utilization rate and supply degree of natural resources in Harbin City in 1998-2005 were quantitatively studied, with the supply-demand level and development capability of the City's ecosystem measured and analyzed comprehensively. The results showed that in 1998-2005, the demand of Harbin urban ecosystem was greater than its supply. Though the ecological deficit had an annual decrement of 2.45%, the contradiction between demand and supply of the ecosystem was still obvious. The diversity index of ecological footprint and the development capability both presented an overall uptrend, but the increment of the latter was far greater than that of the former, which illustrated the enhancement of the development capability being based on the consumption of ecological resources, and the urban development being of not sustainable. Social economic measures should be adopted to coordinate the contradiction between demand and supply and to realize the sustainable development of Harbin City.

  11. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  12. System Dynamic Model for Simulating Demand-Supply Interaction of Railway Express Freight System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingli Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Express freight transportation is a rich seam of profit for China railway, and railway express freight system is a complex system with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops. This paper presents a System Dynamic Model for simulating the interaction between demand and supply of railway express freight system in China. The model consists of three submodels including economic environment, demand, supply, and investment, and its validity is verified by running in Vensim DDS software using historical data. In the simulation of period 2000–2025, the three variables are taken as control variables including growth rate of the national economy, railway express freight rate, and investment in fixed railway assets. Three scenarios for each control variable are simulated, and their effects are analyzed to provide beneficial reference for regulating the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The simulation demonstrated that raising freight rate, adding investment in fixed railway assets, and decelerating economic growth rate are all effective ways to shrink the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The model can be used to forecast the transport demand of railway express freight and test the outcomes of demand-supply regulating measures.

  13. Coordination of Supply Chain with a Dominant Retailer under Demand Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a coordination model of a one-manufacturer multi-retailers supply chain with a dominant retailer. We consider the impact of a dominant retailer on the market retail price and his sales promotion opportunity and examine how the manufacturer can coordinate such a supply chain by revenue-sharing contract after demand disruptions. We address the following important research questions in this paper. (i How do we design an appropriate revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain with a dominant retailer without demand disruptions? (ii When demand is disrupted with variations in market scale and price sensitive coefficient, can the original contract still be valid? (iii How do the demand disruptions affect the coordination mechanism under different disruption scenarios and how should the new contract change? Finally, we generate important insights by both analytical and numerical examples.

  14. Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J.; Bird, L.

    2007-10-01

    In recent years, the demand for renewable electricity has accelerated as a consequence of state and federal policies and the growth of voluntary green power purchase markets, along with the generally improving economics of renewable energy development. This paper reports on a preliminary examination of the supply and demand balance for renewable electricity in the United States, with a focus on renewable energy projects that meet the generally accepted definition of "new" for voluntary market purposes, i.e., projects installed on or after January 1, 1997. After estimating current supply and demand, this paper presents projections of the supply and demand balance out to 2010 and describe a number of key market uncertainties.

  15. [Influence factors on supply and demand changes in the field of acupuncture and moxibustion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin; Li, Ping

    2011-11-01

    Based on principles of health economy and the present situation, the possibility and regularity on changes in the supply and demand field of acupuncture and moxibustion through various viewpoints were analyzed, which included demand and supply elasticity of acup-mox services to market price and the relevant factors, categories and nature of acup-mox services, business idea of supplier on the strength of marginal cost and marginal benefit, expenditure level and inclination of demander, complementary and substitutive treatment of acup-mox therapy, and the relevant time and geographic factors to change in quantity demand and supply. Therefore, it could be applied as reference to redaction and reform of the relevant health economics policy by health administrative management.

  16. Selection of Alternatives for the Natural Gas Supply in Colombia using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Becerra Fernández

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Context: Colombia consumes natural gas in different sectors, especially in the ones that are residential and vehicular transport. Gas consumption serves as backup for power generation in situations of reduced hydroelectric capacity. Nowadays, gas reserve levels have been reduced and it is essential to ensure the uninterrupted supply of the resource. To achieve such objective, there are some alternatives which are difficult to implement at the same time, given the limited financial budget and implementation times that they demanded. In this way, several studies have advanced in the application of models to prioritize alternatives for both supplying power and reducing emissions in the generation, especially regarding the evaluation of energy sources and technology selection for supply. Method: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP based in the Delphi method to define preferences according to the experts judgment, was applied to evaluate the selection of alternatives supply of natural gas in Colombia, considering technical, environmental and social criteria, which is reliable and policy oriented to guarantee supply of resources in the country. Results: Once the model was applied, we evaluated the criteria and alternatives for infrastructure to support gas supply, finding that reliability is the most relevant criterion as well as alternative of building the ‘Regasification Pacific Plant’ followed by the construction of the ‘Buenaventura-Cali pipeline’ and the ‘Storage Plant in Bogotá'. Conclusions: As the results indicate, in Colombia efforts should be focus on imports of the resource through the construction of regasification plants and pipelines to facilitate transport inland to demand points. The latter may help decision makers facing various alternatives to ensure the supply of this resource, which is relevant to various economic sectors, including generation of electricity in the country. Language: Spanish

  17. Reliability modelling - PETROBRAS 2010 integrated gas supply chain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Heil, Luciana; Saker, Leonardo; Vieira, Flavia; Risi, Francisco; Domingues, Joaquim; Alvarenga, Tobias; Carvalho, Eduardo; Mussel, Patricia

    2010-09-15

    The purpose of this paper is to present the innovative reliability modeling of Petrobras 2010 integrated gas supply chain. The model represents a challenge in terms of complexity and software robustness. It was jointly developed by PETROBRAS Gas and Power Department and Det Norske Veritas. It was carried out with the objective of evaluating security of supply of 2010 gas network design that was conceived to connect Brazilian Northeast and Southeast regions. To provide best in class analysis, state of the art software was used to quantify the availability and the efficiency of the overall network and its individual components.

  18. A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd

    The expansion of district heating, the assessment of the impact of heat supply strategies, as well as the analysis of significant heat demand savings require sound decision support at high detail. Data is needed to continuously quantify potentials and costs of measures in the end-use and supply...... sectors. To improve scientific and practical knowledge regarding heat planning and the economics of future district heating, a heat atlas for Denmark has been developed at Aalborg University. The heat atlas employs a building-sharp database of physical building characteristics, which is used to calculate...... heat demand and possible savings. The location of each building relative to heat supply technologies is mapped and used for the assessment of supply strategies by potentials, costs and environmental impact. Both elements can furthermore be used to balance investments in supply with investments...

  19. Gas Supply, Pricing Mechanism and the Economics of Power Generation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanxin Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, green energy is the top priority for China. China has realized that natural gas, as a low-carbon energy source, fits with the nation’s energy demand and will play a critical role in the energy transition, but the actual industry development is slower than expected. By analyzing the major gas corporations around the world, the paper finds that the key factors of the sector are supply and price of the energy resource. A comprehensive analysis on domestic and foreign imported gas reveals a trend of oversupply in China in the future. Given the critical import dependence, China has introduced a series of gas price reforms since 2013, which have led to negative impacts on important gas consumption sectors including power generation. With the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE model, we find that under the prevailing gas supply structure and price level, the economy of utility gas power generation will remain unprofitable, while combined cooling heating and power (CCHP is only commercially feasible in coastal developed regions. If continuing, such a trend will not only bring forth disastrous consequences to gas power industry, but also damage the upstream gas industry, more importantly, impede the energy transition. We conclude the paper with policy implications on pricing mechanism reform, developing domestic unconventional gas and the R&D of gas turbine.

  20. Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

    2018-02-01

    We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

  1. Toward a methodology for substate projections of registered nurse supply and demand in New York.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinnis, Sandra; Martiniano, Robert; Moore, Jean

    2010-01-01

    Even as concerns about nursing shortages continue nationwide and for individual states in the United States, there is little information on the impact of nursing shortages at substate levels, such as counties or groups of small counties. National and state level assessments can mask wide geographic variation in the distribution of registered nurses (RNs). The Center for Health Workforce Studies at the School of Public Health, University at Albany, developed a practical approach to projecting RN supply and demand at substate levels. The experimental model used in this research was adapted from a methodology utilized for the RN National Supply Model and National Demand Model developed by the Health Resources and Services Administration in the department of Health and Human Services to make RN supply and demand projections at the broader national and state levels. The Center's research highlighted the value of substate analyses in the identification of RN supply and demand gaps and found that supply and demand gaps vary greatly by region and within regions. This study also provided an in-depth understanding of the dynamics that drive substate labor markets for RNs as well as the need for substate analyses to help policymakers better allocate scarce resources to address nursing shortages.

  2. The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdi, A. M.; Seaquist, J.; Tenenbaum, D. E.; Eklundh, L.; Ardö, J.

    2014-09-01

    Net primary production (NPP) is the principal source of energy for ecosystems and, by extension, human populations that depend on them. The relationship between the supply and demand of NPP is important for the assessment of socio-ecological vulnerability. We present an analysis of the supply and demand of NPP in the Sahel using NPP estimates from the MODIS sensor and agri-environmental data from FAOSTAT. This synergistic approach allows for a spatially explicit estimation of human impact on ecosystems. We estimated the annual amount of NPP required to derive food, fuel and feed between 2000 and 2010 for 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. When comparing annual estimates of supply and demand of NPP, we found that demand increased from 0.44 PgC to 1.13 PgC, representing 19% and 41%, respectively, of available supply due to a 31% increase in the human population between 2000 and 2010. The demand for NPP has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.2% but NPP supply was near-constant with an inter-annual variability of approximately 1.7%. Overall, there were statistically significant (p sustainable development, and as an indicator of stresses on the environment stemming from increased consumption of biomass.

  3. The supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdi, A M; Seaquist, J; Tenenbaum, D E; Eklundh, L; Ardö, J

    2014-01-01

    Net primary production (NPP) is the principal source of energy for ecosystems and, by extension, human populations that depend on them. The relationship between the supply and demand of NPP is important for the assessment of socio-ecological vulnerability. We present an analysis of the supply and demand of NPP in the Sahel using NPP estimates from the MODIS sensor and agri-environmental data from FAOSTAT. This synergistic approach allows for a spatially explicit estimation of human impact on ecosystems. We estimated the annual amount of NPP required to derive food, fuel and feed between 2000 and 2010 for 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. When comparing annual estimates of supply and demand of NPP, we found that demand increased from 0.44 PgC to 1.13 PgC, representing 19% and 41%, respectively, of available supply due to a 31% increase in the human population between 2000 and 2010. The demand for NPP has been increasing at an annual rate of 2.2% but NPP supply was near-constant with an inter-annual variability of approximately 1.7%. Overall, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) increases in the NPP of cropland (+6.0%), woodland (+6.1%) and grassland/savanna (+9.4%), and a decrease in the NPP of forests (−0.7%). On the demand side, the largest increase was for food (20.4%) followed by feed (16.7%) and fuel (5.5%). The supply-demand balance of NPP is a potentially important tool from the standpoint of sustainable development, and as an indicator of stresses on the environment stemming from increased consumption of biomass. (letter)

  4. Market integration of flexible demand and DG-RES supply. A new approach for demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warmer, C.J.; Hommelberg, M.P.F.; Kamphuis, I.G.; Kok, J.K.

    2007-06-01

    In this paper we discuss the shortcomings of traditional Demand Response programs in an environment in which a large amount of distributed generation is available. An innovative approach is given in which true Customer Site Integration is obtained in the spirit of the liberalized electricity market, by making use of the load flexibility of underlying processes of production and consumption devices. The approach is based on distributed control mechanisms and incorporates new market models for distribution and aggregation costs, load losses, and network constraints

  5. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  6. Demand, supply, and trade analysis for the fifth ECE/FAO European timber trends study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baudin, A.

    1996-01-01

    For this study, supply is explained using prices and costs; separate supply models are estimated for export supply, and supply to domestic markets. Using this approach, elasticities can vary by market (for supply equations) and by source of supply (for demand equations). In addition, substitution behaviour in both consumption and production can be examined. For the 9 countries that are smaller markets for forest products in Europe, a model of total demand (apparent consumption) was estimated using gross domestic product and price as explanatory factors. For these countries, a time-series, cross-section approach was used to estimate elasticities; countries were grouped by per capita income. For all countries, estimated elasticities are generally consistent with those reported in previous TTS, and those reported in the scientific literature. Because trade is modeled, additional information is available regarding the outlook for European forest products consumption, and demand on European forests. Where complete data sets were available, results generally indicate that there is substitution in consumption between imports and domestic production, for most products, in most countries. In addition, import elasticities often are higher than elasticities estimated for consumption from domestic sources. Substitution between exports and domestic markets is also evident in export supply equations. 10 refs, 21 tabs

  7. Long term gas supply contracting: A producer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    There is a consensus building in the natural gas industry that most of the future growth in sales will occur because of an increase in the use of gas for power generation. Certainly, there are environmental, operational and economic reasons for this to be so. However, the power generation market has many unique requirements which can make it particularly difficult to the gas industry to supply. Until these obstacles are overcome, growth through this market may be limited. One particular area of perceived difficulty is contracting for long-term reliable and affordable gas supplies. This paper will focus on the issues surrounding long-term gas contracts, attempt to put them in a historical context and discuss some of the ways these issues are now being overcome

  8. Separation of metabolic supply and demand: aerobic glycolysis as a normal physiological response to fluctuating energetic demands in the membrane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epstein, Tamir; Xu, Liping; Gillies, Robert J; Gatenby, Robert A

    2014-01-01

    Cancer cells, and a variety of normal cells, exhibit aerobic glycolysis, high rates of glucose fermentation in the presence of normal oxygen concentrations, also known as the Warburg effect. This metabolism is considered abnormal because it violates the standard model of cellular energy production that assumes glucose metabolism is predominantly governed by oxygen concentrations and, therefore, fermentative glycolysis is an emergency back-up for periods of hypoxia. Though several hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of aerobic glycolysis, its biological basis in cancer and normal cells is still not well understood. We examined changes in glucose metabolism following perturbations in membrane activity in different normal and tumor cell lines and found that inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. Computational simulations demonstrated that these findings are consistent with a new model of normal physiological cellular metabolism in which efficient mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation supplies chronic energy demand primarily for macromolecule synthesis and glycolysis is necessary to supply rapid energy demands primarily to support membrane pumps. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. The predictions were confirmed experimentally. Our results show that glycolytic metabolism serves a critical physiological function under normoxic conditions by responding to rapid energetic demand, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This supports a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Cells use efficient but slow-responding aerobic metabolism

  9. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  10. A Holistic ICT Solution to Improve Matching between Supply and Demand over the Water Supply Distribution Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anzaldi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While many water management tools exist, these systems are not usually interconnected and therefore cannot communicate between one another, preventing Integrated Water Resources Management to be fully achieved. This paper presents the solution proposed by WatERP project* where a novel solution enables better matching between water supply and demand from holistic perspective. Subsystems that control the production, management and consumption of water will be interconnected through both information architecture and intelligent infrastructure. The main outcome will consist of, a web-based Open Management Platform integrating near real-time knowledge on water supplies and demand, from sources to users, across geographic and organizational scales and supported by a knowledge base where information will be structured in water management ontology to ensure interoperability and maximize usability. WatERP will thus provide a major contribution to: 1 Improve coordination among actors, 2 Foster behavioural change, 3 Reduce water and energy consumption, 4 Optimize water accountability.

  11. Cost analysis of concepts for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Henning; Ganagin, Waldemar; Hartmann, Kilian; Wachendorf, Michael

    2014-10-01

    With the share of intermittent renewable energies within the electricity system rising, balancing services from dispatchable power plants are of increasing importance. Highlighting the importance of the need to keeping fuel costs for flexible power generation to a minimum, the study aims to identify favourable biogas plant configurations, supplying biogas on demand. A cost analysis of five configurations based on biogas storing and flexible biogas production concepts has been carried out. Results show that additional flexibility costs for a biogas supply of 8h per day range between 2€ and 11€MWh(-1) and for a 72h period without biogas demand from 9€ to 19€MWh(-1). While biogas storage concepts were identified as favourable short term supply configurations, flexible biogas production concepts profit from reduced storage requirements at plants with large biogas production capacities or for periods of several hours without biogas demand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Physicians' perception of demand-induced supply in the information age: a latent class model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Tai-Seale, Ming

    2012-03-01

    This paper introduces a concept called 'demand-induced supply' that reflects the excess supply of services due to an increase in demand initiated by patients. We examine its association with the proportion of information-savvy patients in physicians' practice. Using data from a national representative physician survey, we apply latent class models to analyze this association. Our analyses categorize physicians into three 'types' according to the frequency with which they provided additional medical services at their patients' requests: frequent, occasional, and rare. The proportion of information-savvy patients is significantly and positively correlated with demand-induced supply for the frequent or occasional type, but not among physicians in the rare type. Efforts to contain healthcare costs through utilization control need to recognize the pattern of responses from physicians who treat an increasing number of information-savvy patients. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. From Walras’ auctioneer to continuous time double auctions: a general dynamic theory of supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2016-12-01

    In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens after they occur? To answer the question, we develop a dynamic theory for supply and demand based on agents with heterogeneous beliefs. When the inter-auction time is infinitely long, the Walrasian mechanism is recovered. When transactions are allowed to happen in continuous time, a peculiar property emerges: close to the price, supply and demand vanish quadratically, which we empirically confirm on the Bitcoin. This explains why price impact in financial markets is universally observed to behave as the square root of the excess volume. The consequences are important, as they imply that the very fact of clearing the market makes prices hypersensitive to small fluctuations.

  14. Supply-demand 3D dynamic model in water resources evaluation: taking Lebanon as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Hong; Hou, Zhimin

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, supply-demand 3D dynamic model is adopted to create a measurement of a region’s capacity to provide available water to meet the needs of its population. First of all, we draw a diagram between supply and demand. Then taking the main dynamic factors into account, we establish an index to evaluate the balance of supply and demand. The three dimension vector reflects the scarcity of industrial, agricultural and residential water. Lebanon is chosen as the object of case study, and we do quantitative analysis of its current situation. After data collecting and processing, we calculate the 3D vector in 2012, which reveals that agriculture is susceptible to water scarcity. Water resources of Lebanon are “physical rich” but “economic scarcity” according to the correlation chart and other statistical analysis.

  15. Exploring the oxygen supply and demand framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary; Shackell, Eileen

    2017-11-01

    In nursing education, physiological concepts are typically presented within a body 'systems' framework yet learners are often challenged to apply this knowledge in the holistic and functional manner needed for effective clinical decision-making and safe patient care. A nursing faculty addressed this learning challenge by developing an advanced organizer as a conceptual and integrative learning tool to support learners in diverse learning environments and practice settings. A mixed methods research study was conducted that explored the effectiveness of the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework as a learning tool in undergraduate nursing education. A pretest/post-test assessment and reflective journal were used to gather data. Findings indicated the Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework guided the development of pattern recognition and thinking processes and supported knowledge development, knowledge application and clinical decision-making. The Oxygen Supply and Demand Framework supports undergraduate students learning to provide safe and effective nursing care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  17. Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: A prognosis for 2012–2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanckaviciene, Aurika, E-mail: aurika.vanckaviciene@gmail.com [Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Radiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas (Lithuania); Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Nursing and Care, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas (Lithuania); Starkiene, Liudvika, E-mail: liudvika.starkiene@lsmuni.lt [Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Department of Preventive Medicine, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas (Lithuania); Macijauskiene, Jūrate, E-mail: jurate.macijauskiene@lsmuni.lt [Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Faculty of Nursing, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2014-07-15

    Background: This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012–2030. Materials and methods: Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Results: Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios – which are the most probable – revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030—0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Conclusions: Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers’ services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%.

  18. Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: A prognosis for 2012–2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

    2014-01-01

    Background: This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012–2030. Materials and methods: Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Results: Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios – which are the most probable – revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030—0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Conclusions: Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers’ services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%

  19. Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: a prognosis for 2012-2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanckaviciene, Aurika; Starkiene, Liudvika; Macijauskiene, Jūrate

    2014-07-01

    This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012-2030. Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared. Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios - which are the most probable - revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030-0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population. Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers' services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. Materials and Methods A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Results Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. Conclusions This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions. PMID:29124238

  1. Equilibrium Model of Discrete Dynamic Supply Chain Network with Random Demand and Advertisement Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guitao Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The advertisement can increase the consumers demand; therefore it is one of the most important marketing strategies in the operations management of enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the impact of advertising investment on a discrete dynamic supply chain network which consists of suppliers, manufactures, retailers, and demand markets associated at different tiers under random demand. The impact of advertising investment will last several planning periods besides the current period due to delay effect. Based on noncooperative game theory, variational inequality, and Lagrange dual theory, the optimal economic behaviors of the suppliers, the manufactures, the retailers, and the consumers in the demand markets are modeled. In turn, the supply chain network equilibrium model is proposed and computed by modified project contraction algorithm with fixed step. The effectiveness of the model is illustrated by numerical examples, and managerial insights are obtained through the analysis of advertising investment in multiple periods and advertising delay effect among different periods.

  2. Determining optimum levels of DSM [demand-side management] as a supply-side resource

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giles, S.H.; Mitchell, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    San Diego Gas and Electric Company (SDGE) recommends the evaluation of demand-side management as a supply-side resource. The advantages of concurrent economic analysis of DSM options with other traditional sources represents a significant improvement over analysis either before or after the development of a resource plan. The evaluation of utility-sponsored DSM programs that provide system benefits that include deferment of capacity additions and improvements in more efficient system operation should be evaluated side-by-side with traditional resources that provide similar benefits. The utility decision to either provide capital costs to construct a power plant or make demand payments for a power purchase is directly analogous to the decision to provide funding for a DSM program that would defer these same investments. Both types of decision represent utility control over investment decisions that allow the utility to provide reliable, low-cost power to its customers. SDGE has also had experience with using generation expansion scenarios to test different levels of pre-selected packages of DSM programs, attempting to evaluate the total costs of system expansion for each of the different packages. This method was fraught with problems, and the best information that could be gained was if the selection of DSM packages happened to bracket a lower cost scenario, when it could reasonably be assumed that both smaller and larger levels of DSM were not as cost effective as the intermediate level. However, in many cases the selection of DSM programs did not produce this result and the important question of whether individual DSM programs were worthwhile when evaluated individually, or whether the lowest cost scenario would be improved with more or less DSM, could not be answered

  3. Too Many, Too Few, or Just Right? Making Sense Of Conflicting RN Supply and Demand Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spetz, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of future supply and demand of health professionals are tools to guide policy, not a final statement about how the world will be in the future. Recent forecasts of RN supply and demand vary widely and are incredibly confusing for nurse leaders, nurse educators, and policymakers. To effectively incorporate forecasts into policy and planning, one must understand the structure of the forecasts and underlying assumptions. One should treat all forecasts cautiously, and use them as guides to policy rather than definitive future outcomes.

  4. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallaba, Florian; Olin, Stefan; Engström, Kerstin; Abdi, Abdulhakim M.; Boke-Olén, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardö, Jonas; Seaquist, Jonathan W.

    2017-12-01

    In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from

  5. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine: A global assessment of demand and supply balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cernuschi, Tania; Malvolti, Stefano; Nickels, Emily; Friede, Martin

    2018-01-25

    Over the past decade, several countries across all regions, income groups and procurement methods have been unable to secure sufficient BCG vaccine supply. While the frequency of stock-outs has remained rather stable, duration increased in 2014-2015 due to manufacturing issues and attracted the attention of national, regional and global immunization stakeholders. This prompted an in-depth analysis of supply and demand dynamics aiming to characterize supply risks. This analysis is unique as it provides a global picture, where previous analyses have focused on a portion of the market procuring through UN entities. Through literature review, supplier interviews, appraisal of shortages, stock-outs and historical procurement data, and through demand forecasting, this analysis shows an important increase in global capacity in 2017: supply is sufficient to meet forecasted BCG vaccine demand and possibly buffer market shocks. Nevertheless, risks remain mainly due to supply concentration and limited investment in production process improvements, as well as inflexibility in demand. Identification of these market risks will allow implementation of risk-mitigating interventions in three areas: (1) enhancing information sharing between major global health actors, countries and suppliers, (2) identifying interests and incentives to expand product registration and investment in the BCG manufacturing process, and (3) working with countries for tighter vaccine management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. The United States rheumatology workforce: supply and demand, 2005-2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Chad L; Hooker, Roderick; Harrington, Timothy; Birnbaum, Neal; Hogan, Paul; Bouchery, Ellen; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Barr, Walter

    2007-03-01

    To develop and apply a model that allows prediction of current and future supply and demand for rheumatology services in the US. A supply model was developed using the age and sex distribution of current physicians, retirement and mortality rates, the number of fellowship slots and fill rates, and practice patterns of rheumatologists. A Markov projection model was used to project needs in 5-year increments from 2005 to 2025. The number of rheumatologists for adult patients in the US in 2005 is 4,946. Male and female rheumatologists are equally distributed up to age 44; above age 44, men predominate. The percent of women in adult rheumatology is projected to increase from 30.2% in 2005 to 43.6% in 2025. The mean number of visits per rheumatologist per year is 3,758 for male rheumatologists and 2,800 for female rheumatologists. Assuming rheumatology supply and demand are in equilibrium in 2005, the demand for rheumatologists in 2025 is projected to exceed supply by 2,576 adult and 33 pediatric rheumatologists. The primary factors in the excess demand are an aging population which will increase the number of people with rheumatic disorders, growth in the Gross Domestic Product, and flat rheumatology supply due to fixed numbers entering the workforce and to retirements. The productivity of younger rheumatologists and women, who will make up a greater percentage of the future workforce, may also have important effects on supply. Unknown effects that could influence these projections include technology advances, more efficient practice methods, changes in insurance reimbursements, and shifting lifestyles. Current data suggest that the pediatric rheumatology workforce is experiencing a substantial excess of demand versus supply. Based on assessment of supply and demand under current scenarios, the demand for rheumatologists is expected to exceed supply in the coming decades. Strategies for the profession to adapt to this changing health care landscape include increasing

  7. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    OpenAIRE

    Intaher M. Ambe; Johanna A. Badenhorst-Weiss

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT) inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no...

  8. Electric power supply and demand for the contiguous United States, 1980-1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    A limited review is presented of the outlook for the electric power supply and demand during the period 1980 to 1989. Only the adequacy and reliability aspects of bulk electric power supply in the contiguous US are considered. The economic, financial and environmental aspects of electric power system planning and the distribution of electricity (below the transmission level) are topics of prime importance, but they are outside the scope of this report.

  9. The electricity supply-demand balance for the summer of 2016 - June 2016. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-06-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the summer of 2016

  10. New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranta, Annemarei Anna; Tiwari, Priyesh; Mottershead, John; Abernethy, David; Simpson, Mark; Brickell, Kiri; Lynch, Christopher; Walker, Elizabeth; Frith, Richard

    2015-08-07

    To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning. Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap. The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen. Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.

  11. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  12. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    OpenAIRE

    Bekkering, J.; Gemert, van, Wim; Broekhuis, A.A.; Hengeveld, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. This supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A defined reference scenario reflects the current state of practice, assuming that input energy is from fossil origin. Possible improvements of this reference scenario were investigated. For this analysis two new definitions for energy input-output ratio w...

  13. Oil supply and demand - Panorama 2008; L'offre et la demande petrolieres - Panorama 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    The crude price variations of the last five years might be compared to the movements of a ball bouncing in an elevator. At regular intervals, a new high is reached, setting a record soon to be broken in turn. For each 'bounce', we might try to identify the conjuncture reasons responsible for pushing prices upwards, but there is always another new high, because the elevator has not finished going up. The price of US$ 100/bbl was reached 'by accident' at the beginning of 2008. Prices will stay high in future, and this record will inevitably be left behind for good in the next few years. Supply, limited in its nature, is inadequate in the face of needs infinite in their desires. This has placed the crude price on a growth path whose direction could only be changed, it would seem, by massive development of replacement fuels or very large gains in energy efficiency. That is, unless the world economy were hit by a major economic crisis.

  14. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  15. THE SELECTION OF GAS PIPELINE ROUTE ON THE PLAN OF GAS SUPPLIED AREA

    OpenAIRE

    O. N. Medvedevа

    2011-01-01

    Problem statement. Selection of gas pipeline route exercises significant influence on the func-tioning of gas distribution system. The optimal solution of this problem would substantially reduce costs for construction and operation of gas supply system.Results and conclusions. In this paper, we give some recommendations on design of branch gas pipelines to increase the effectiveness of their operation. The results of technical and economic studies of gas distribution systems are presented. To...

  16. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors' influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of consumer rights protection and the level of legal protection of consumer rights on the risk spread of food safety. This model contributes to the explicit investigation of the influence relationship among supply-demand factors, the regulation behavioral choice of government, the behavioral choice of food supply chain members and food safety risk spread. And this paper provides a new viewpoint for considering food safety risk spread in the food supply chain, which has a great reference for food safety management.

  17. Dynamic replenishment, production, and pricing decisions in the face of supply disruption and random price-sensitive demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Stuart X.

    2013-01-01

    We study a joint decision problem for replenishment, production, pricing strategies in the face of both supply and demand uncertainties. The supply of the raw material suffers from a potential supply disruption while the demand for the finished goods is price-sensitive and random. We assume that the

  18. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Yophy, E-mail: yohuanghaka@gmail.com [Deptartment of Public Finance and Tax Administration, National Taipei College of Business, Taipei Taiwan, 10051 (China); Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey [Deptartment of Economics, Chinese Culture University, Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chieh-Yu [Statistics Department, Taoyuan District Court, No. 1 Fazhi Road, Taoyuan City 33053, Taiwan (China)

    2011-11-15

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research Highlights: > The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. > Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO{sub 2} emission. > The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. > Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. > Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  19. The Integration of Supply, Demand and Value: A Coherent Theory of the Supply Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Larry Howard; Ezgi Uzel; Jameela Androulidakis

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a refined means of conceptualizing the combination of sets of integrated business processes and activities that since the late 1980s has come to be known as the “supply chain.” It identifies specific sets of processes and activities, “channels,” by the primary economic value that each contributes to products and services as they move from the sourcing of raw materials to final delivery. The paper further drills down to the way in which value is developed, aggregated, and c...

  20. Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Clese; Salsberg, Edward; Forte, Gaetano; Bruinooge, Suanna; Goldstein, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not

  1. Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sallaba

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production supply–demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell, hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply

  2. Competitive closed-loop supply chain network design with price-dependent demands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rezapour, Shabnam; Farahani, Reza Zanjirani; Fahimnia, Behnam

    2015-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents a bi-level model for the strategic reverse network design (upper level) and tactical/operational planning (lower level) of a closed-loop single-period supply chain operating in a competitive environment with price-dependent market demand. An existing supply chain (SC......) is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of new products, while the new (to-be-designed) rival SC can supply both new and remanufactured products. Competitions exist not only externally between the two chains supplying new products to the same market, but also internally in the new chain...... for the supply of new and remanufactured products. The performance behaviors of both SCs are evaluated with specific focus placed on investigating the impacts of the strategic facility location decisions of the new SC on the tactical/operational transport and inventory decisions of the overall network. The bi...

  3. New energy efficiency technologies associated with increased natural gas demand in delivery and consumption sectors of Iran

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alghalandis, Saeid Mansouri

    2010-09-15

    Increasing population and economic growth in developing countries has changed their energy consumption patterns. So, the conventional systems of energy supply have become inadequate to deal with rising energy demand. Iran has great reservoirs of natural gas and its natural gas usage is far more than average international standard. Dominance of natural gas share in energy basket in Iran, make it necessary to consider energy efficient technologies and solutions for this domain. In this study new technologies for increasing energy efficiency (EE) in natural gas delivery and consumption sub sectors are discussed and evaluated according to available infrastructures in Iran.

  4. The Supply of and Demand for Charitable Donations to Higher Education. NBER Working Paper No. 18389

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jeffrey R.; Dimmock, Stephen G.; Weisbenner, Scott

    2012-01-01

    Charitable donations are an important revenue source for many institutions of higher education. We explore how donations respond to economic and financial market shocks, accounting for both supply and demand channels through which these shocks operate. In panel data with fixed effects to control for unobservable differences across universities, we…

  5. On the Significance of Demand and Inventory Smoothing Interventions in Supply Chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cannella, S.; Ciancimino, E.; Ashayeri, J.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to quantify the benefit of demand and inventory smoothing in contrasting the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so we model a traditional supply chain and we test five settings of order smoothing under

  6. Timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris B. LeDoux; Paul E. Sendak; William H. McWilliams; Neil Huyler; Thomas Malecek; Worthen Muzzey; Toni Jones

    2001-01-01

    This report describes a timber supply and demand assessment of the Green and White Mountain National Forests' market area using USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis data, production information provided by forest industry, and a stump-to-mill logging cost-prediction model. Nonavailable timberland that includes reserve and steep-terrain lands is...

  7. The Supply and Demand of Technology and Engineering Teachers in the United States: Who Knows?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moye, Johnny J.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the supply and demand of technology and engineering teachers in the United States. Once gathered, the resulting data (that was available) was compared to previous studies to determine trends. The researcher reviewed the 2010-11 through 2015-16 Technology & Engineering Teacher Education Directories. To…

  8. Cannabis Supply and Demand Reduction: Evidence from the ESPAD Study of Adolescents in 31 European Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjarnason, Thoroddur; Steriu, Andreea; Kokkevi, Anna

    2010-01-01

    Aims: Most national drug policies target both the supply side and the demand side of illicit drug use. Although such policies are intended to affect individual choices, they by definition operate on a national level and cannot be evaluated solely on the basis of individual-level differences. This study aims to evaluate the impact of country-level…

  9. Comparing supply and demand models for future photovoltaic power generation in the USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basore, Paul A. [US Department of Energy, Washington DC 20585 USA; Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden CO 80401 USA

    2018-02-22

    We explore the plausible range of future deployment of photovoltaic generation capacity in the USA using a supply-focused model based on supply-chain growth constraints and a demand-focused model based on minimizing the overall cost of the electricity system. Both approaches require assumptions based on previous experience and anticipated trends. For each of the models, we assign plausible ranges for the key assumptions and then compare the resulting PV deployment over time. Each model was applied to 2 different future scenarios: one in which PV market penetration is ultimately constrained by the uncontrolled variability of solar power and one in which low-cost energy storage or some equivalent measure largely alleviates this constraint. The supply-focused and demand-focused models are in substantial agreement, not just in the long term, where deployment is largely determined by the assumed market penetration constraints, but also in the interim years. For the future scenario without low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the 2 models give an average plausible range of PV generation capacity in the USA of 150 to 530 GWdc in 2030 and 260 to 810 GWdc in 2040. With low-cost energy storage or equivalent measures, the corresponding ranges are 160 to 630 GWdc in 2030 and 280 to 1200 GWdc in 2040. The latter range is enough to supply 10% to 40% of US electricity demand in 2040, based on current demand growth.

  10. Analysis of the Structure of Labour Supply and Demand in Four ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Analysis of the Structure of Labour Supply and Demand in Four Target Sectors in Saint-Louis and Louga (Sénégal). In November 2004, the Paul ... This grant will support the development of local economic development strategies for the four sectors in the regions under study. The project methodology will involve ...

  11. The Skills Cline: Higher Education and the Supply-Demand Complex in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosser, Michael

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between Grade 12 learner preferences for study in higher education, student enrolment in higher education programmes, and student graduations in different programme areas, considering the match between these supply-side indicators and a forecast of skills demand in South Africa as a first step towards…

  12. The effect of choice options in training curricula on the demand for and supply of apprentices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Anika; de Grip, Andries; Kriechel, Ben

    2017-01-01

    Building on Lazear's skill weights approach, we study the effect of having more or less heterogeneity in the training curriculum on the demand for and supply of apprentices. Modernizations of training curricula provide us with a quasi-experimental setting as these modernizations can be seen as a

  13. Credit Supply versus Demand : Bank and Firm Balance-Sheet Channels in Good and Crisis Times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jimenez Porras, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.; Saurina, J.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Banking crises involve periods of persistently low credit and economic growth. Banks’ balance sheets are then weak but so are those of non-financial corporate borrowers. Hence, a crucial question is whether credit growth is low due to supply or to demand factors. However convincing

  14. Model collaboration for improved assessment of biomass supply, demand and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; et al, .

    2014-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  15. Business Process Modelling in Demand-Driven Agri-Food Supply Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agri-food companies increasingly participate in demand-driven supply chains that are able to adapt flexibly to changes in the marketplace. The objective of this presentation is to discuss a process modelling framework, which enhances the interoperability and agility of information systems as

  16. The multifaceted nature of exploration : Value of supply, demand and spatial search for innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sidhu, J.S.; Commandeur, H.R.; Volberda, H.W.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, exploration and exploitation are conceptualized in terms of a nonlocal-local search continuum in three-dimensional supply, demand, and geographic space. Using cross-sectional data from a wide range of manufacturing industries, we develop and validate an operational measure of the

  17. Model collaboration for the improved assessment of biomass supply, demand, and impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wicke, B.; Hilst, van der F.; Daioglou, V.; Banse, M.; Beringer, T.; Gerssen-Gondelach, S.; Heijnen, S.; Karssenberg, D.; Laborde, D.; Lippe, M.; Meijl, van H.; Nassar, A.; Powell, J.P.; Prins, A.G.; Rose, S.N.K.; Smeets, E.M.W.; Stehfest, E.; Tyner, W.E.; Verstegen, J.A.; Valin, H.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Yeh, S.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2015-01-01

    Existing assessments of biomass supply and demand and their impacts face various types of limitations and uncertainties, partly due to the type of tools and methods applied (e.g., partial representation of sectors, lack of geographical details, and aggregated representation of technologies

  18. Regulation of supply and demand for maternal nutrients in mammals by imprinted genes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reik, Wolf; Constância, Miguel; Fowden, Abigail; Anderson, Neil; Dean, Wendy; Ferguson-Smith, Anne; Tycko, Benjamin; Sibley, Colin

    2003-01-01

    The placenta has evolved in eutherian mammals primarily to provide nutrients for the developing fetus. The genetic control of the regulation of supply and demand for maternal nutrients is not understood. In this review we argue that imprinted genes have central roles in controlling both the fetal demand for, and the placental supply of, maternal nutrients. Recent studies on Igf2 (insulin-like growth factor 2) knockout mouse models provide experimental support for this hypothesis. These show effects on placental transport capacity consistent with a role of IGF-II in modulating both the placental supply and fetal demand for nutrients. Imprinting of genes with such functions may have coevolved with the placenta and new evidence suggests that transporter proteins, as well as the regulators themselves, may also be imprinted. These data and hypotheses are important, as deregulation of supply and demand affects fetal growth and has long term consequences for health in mammals both in the neonatal period and, as a result of fetal programming, in adulthood. PMID:12562908

  19. Factors influencing long term dynamics of health care supply and demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.T.; Roos, E.; Pries-Heje, J.; Chiasson, M.; Wareham, J.; Busquets, X.; Valor, J.

    2012-01-01

    Governments and other policy makers use long-term planning models to support workforce planning decisions for regulating care markets and to ensure accurate balancing between care supply and demand. Our aim is to understand long-term effects of workforce planning decisions on care markets, in order

  20. Ecological balance between supply and demand based on cultivated land ecological footprint method in Guizhou Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Qinghuan; Zhou, Dequan; Bai, Xiaoyong; Xiao, Jianyong; Chen, Fei; Zeng, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In order to construct the indicators of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity, basing on the relation of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity supply and demand, applying the model of Cultivated Land Ecological Footprints and the method of CIS and considering the factors of cultivated land production, taking the statistical data of 2015 as an example, and then made a systematic evaluation of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou Province. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of supply and demand of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou is unbalanced, and the northern and eastern parts are the overloading area, the middle, the south and the west parts are the balance area. (2) From the perspective of cultivated land structure, the crops with ecological carrying capacity surplus were rice, vegetables and peanuts, among which rice was the highest and the ecological balance index was 0.7354. The crops with ecological carrying capacity overload were potato, wheat, maize, rapeseeds, soybeans and cured tobacco, of which the index of potato up to 7.11, other types of indices are less than 1.5. The research can provide the ecological security early warning, the overall plan of land use and sustainable development of the area cultivated land with scientific evidence and decision support.

  1. Uranium demand, supply and prices, 1991-2000: a report to Greenpeace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Faircheallaigh, C.

    1990-01-01

    Taking account of recent developments in relation to existing nuclear power plants and applying realistic schedules to new developments, this study has calculated estimates of future nuclear power plant capacity which are slightly lower than other published forecasts for 1996, and significantly lower (by between 7 and 9 per cent) than other forecasts for 2000. This data was then used to calculate demand for newly-mined uranium in each year from 1991 to 2000. Detailed data relating to some 40 existing uranium mines and twenty planned projects to estimate supply during the same period, have also been analysed. Combining the estimates for supply and demand, the study forecasts a small shortfall in supply during 1991-1995. However, this shortfall can be covered by a slight reduction in the uranium stocks which will exist at that time and, on the basis of experience during recent years, it is unlikely to result in more than a modest increase in prices. Supply is expected to significantly exceed demand from 1996-1998, and to slightly exceed demand in 1999-2000. This is likely to exert downward pressure on uranium prices, keeping them close to their current low levels in real terms. This information is then used to gauge the economic prospects for development of new uranium mining capacity in Australia between now and the end of the century. 18 refs., 6 tabs

  2. Supply and demand of some critical metals and present status of their recycling in WEEE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shengen; Ding, Yunji; Liu, Bo; Chang, Chein-Chi

    2017-07-01

    New development and technological innovations make electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) more functional by using an increasing number of metals, particularly the critical metals (e.g. rare and precious metals) with specialized properties. As millions of people in emerging economies adopt a modern lifestyle, the demand for critical metals is soaring. However, the increasing demand causes the crisis of their supply because of their simple deficiency in the Earth's crust or geopolitical constraints which might create political issues for their supply. This paper focuses on the sustainable supply of typical critical metals (indium, rare earth elements (REEs), lithium, cobalt and precious metals) through recycling waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). To illuminate this issue, the production, consumption, expected future demand, current recycling situation of critical metals, WEEE management and their recycling have been reviewed. We find that the demand of indium, REEs, lithium and cobalt in EEE will continuously increasing, while precious metals are decreasing because of new substitutions with less or even without precious metals. Although the generation of WEEE in 2014 was about 41.9 million tons (Mt), just about 15% (6.5 Mt) was treated environmentally. The inefficient collection of WEEE is the main obstacle to relieving the supply risk of critical metals. Furthermore, due to the widespread use in low concentrations, such as indium, their recycling is not just technological problem, but economic feasibility is. Finally, relevant recommendations are point out to address these issues. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Change in the southern U.S. water demand and supply over the next forty years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven C. McNulty; Ge Sun; Erika C. Cohen; Jennifer A. Moore Myers

    2008-01-01

    Water shortages are often considered a problem in the western United States, where water supply is limited compared to the eastern half of the country. However, periodic water shortages are also common in the southeastern United States due to high water demand and periodic drought. Southeastern U.S. municipalities spend billions of dollars to develop water storage...

  4. Contract mechanisms for coordinating a supply chain with price and sales-effort dependent demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nalla, V.R.; Venugopal, V.; Veen, van der J.A.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers a two-stage supply chain with a Buyer and a Supplier, where the endconsumer demand is influenced by two factors, namely the price of the product and the saleseffort made by the Buyer. It is assumed that the Buyer makes the sales-effort decision and incurs the associated cost.

  5. An Evaluation of Selected Economic Areas according to Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kappel Stanislav

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Euro Area remains a well-known monetary union in the World. But the possibilities of creation of new monetary unions are discussed. It is spoken about NAFTA (Canada, Mexico and the United States or MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. The aim of this paper is to assess the similarity of demand and supply shocks in the countries of NAFTA and MERCOSUR, and to compare it with the countries of the Euro Area. For these aims, correlation and structural vector autoregression methods are used. Methods are based on Blanchard and Quah (1989 and Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993. We confirm the existence of core states and periphery states in the Euro Area with some exceptions. If we compare supply and demand shocks, we find more similarity in the case of supply shocks in the countries of the Euro Area. According to the results, the countries of NAFTA are more appropriate for the creation of monetary union than the countries of MERCOSUR. The countries of NAFTA achieve high correlation coefficients of supply and demand shocks (except Mexico for supply shocks.

  6. Potential gas supplies from the UKCS and some possible fiscal constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, A.G.; Hoevring, M.

    1992-01-01

    The UK gas market is in the process of undergoing fundamental change. Both the structural changes and the prospective growth in the overall size of the market have major consequences for the producers of gas from the United Kingdom continental shelf (UKCS). New opportunities and new problems are both generated. The risks involved are significantly altered. To date, the bulk of gas supplies from the UKCS has come from the Southern sector. Looking ahead a much higher proportion can be expected from Central waters of the North Sea. This expectation is based on the respective reserve bases in the two sectors. In the Central sector gas is generally associated with oil or condensate. Given the highly seasonal nature of gas demand in the UK this change in the pattern of supplies has considerable implications for the economics of production, storage, distribution and pricing. In this paper the possible gas supplies from different sectors of the UKCS are estimated for the period 1992-2010. (author)

  7. Hard water problems and soft water paths: The "supply versus demand" conundrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2012-12-01

    Water problems are complex, interdisciplinary, and have profound effects on human and ecosystem health and well-being. And they are classic "hard" problems. Good science is necessary to solve these problems, but it is rarely sufficient. One of these hard problems is that of "perception" and "frame" - traditional water planners and managers frame freshwater as a "supply" problem, i.e., how can we access and deliver sufficient quantities of water of suitable quality, to satisfy perceived demand. In recent years, however, as water scarcity in different regions has increased due to growing populations and expanding economies, "peak water" limits (including peak renewable, non-renewable, and ecological limits) have started to constrain development of traditional "supply" options (Figure 1). That has led to new thinking about the other side of the equation: what is meant by water "demand" and can demand management tools and approaches offer a way to solve water problems. The "soft path for water" addresses this issue of water demand directly, but implementing demand-side solutions faces serious barriers. This talk will expound on the soft path approach and its potential to overcome some of the gridlock and stagnation in current water policy debates, with examples from both developed and developing countries, and different economic sectors.umulative global reservoir storage (major reservoirs) from 1900 to 2010, showing leveling off of traditional supply expansion. Data from the GRanD database.

  8. Long term contracts in portfolios of core LDC gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    John, F.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper recommends that local distribution companies (LDCs) should use a portfolio approach for their gas supply strategy. The author recommends that LDCs not rely on spot supplies to meet the peak needs of the core residential and commercial markets. He recommends that a secure supply through long-term contracts are better sources than spot or even intermediate term suppliers. The paper provides a brief outline format of the advantages to the use of a portfolio approach which include the rapid restructuring of the market, general changes in the market, and general market performance. By maintaining a portfolio, a list of available natural gas suppliers is always available. This portfolio also acts to compare pricing between short, medium, and long-term pricing for the LDCs

  9. Game-theoretic analysis of supply chain coordination under advertising and price dependent demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mona Taheri

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain members cannot act independently and they need to act as a part of a unified system and coordinated with other members. Therefore, a coordination mechanism may be necessary to motivate members to achieve coordination. In this paper, the coordination problem is studied in a two-level supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer where demand is a function of price and advertising expenditures in two scenarios. The first scenario is “No coordination”, and the other scenario is “coordination with Revenue sharing contract”. The models are solved using game theory, Cooperative and Nash equilibrium. Finally, numerical examples are presented indicating that the average expected profit in the second scenario, coordination with revenue sharing, is higher than the first scenario. In addition numerical examples indicate that as price and advertising elasticity to demand increase, profitability of supply chain decreases.

  10. Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Advertisement Dependent Stochastic Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liying Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members’ risk preferences and negotiating powers.

  11. Agricultural Policies Exacerbate Honeybee Pollination Service Supply-Demand Mismatches Across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeze, Tom D.; Vaissière, Bernard E.; Bommarco, Riccardo; Petanidou, Theodora; Seraphides, Nicos; Kozák, Lajos; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Kleijn, David; Gyldenkærne, Steen; Moretti, Marco; Holzschuh, Andrea; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stout, Jane C.; Pärtel, Meelis; Zobel, Martin; Potts, Simon G.

    2014-01-01

    Declines in insect pollinators across Europe have raised concerns about the supply of pollination services to agriculture. Simultaneously, EU agricultural and biofuel policies have encouraged substantial growth in the cultivated area of insect pollinated crops across the continent. Using data from 41 European countries, this study demonstrates that the recommended number of honeybees required to provide crop pollination across Europe has risen 4.9 times as fast as honeybee stocks between 2005 and 2010. Consequently, honeybee stocks were insufficient to supply >90% of demands in 22 countries studied. These findings raise concerns about the capacity of many countries to cope with major losses of wild pollinators and highlight numerous critical gaps in current understanding of pollination service supplies and demands, pointing to a pressing need for further research into this issue. PMID:24421873

  12. Supply/Demand in Radiology: A Historical Perspective and Comparison to other Labor Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharafinski, Mark E; Nussbaum, David; Jha, Saurabh

    2016-02-01

    There has been attention on the job market recently and on radiology's supply/demand calculus. Supply is influenced by the number of trained radiologists, while demand is driven by demographics and technological innovation. We analyze the supply of radiologists historically and compare to other labor markets-medical and non-medical, domestic and foreign. We review National Resident Matching Program data in radiology and several other specialties from 1991 to 2015. We also review surveys, physician recruitment data, and peer-reviewed commentaries on medical specialty job markets. Trends are compared across specialties. The regulation of American medical training is compared to that in the United Kingdom and to a nonmedical labor market, unionized theatrical stage employees. Radiology residency positions have increased since 1998 despite a downturn in the job market. This expansion coincides with a decreasing percentage of positions filled by domestic graduates. A similar trend has been seen in pathology, a notoriously oversupplied specialty. Conversely, other specialties have maintained their proportion of domestic graduates by way of limited supply or implicit demand. The radiology job market is currently oversupplied, primarily a result of increasing residency positions despite indicators of decreasing demand. The percentage of residency positions filled by domestic graduates has decreased during the same period, suggesting that medical student interest is responsive to the market. Other specialties, particularly pathology, demonstrate the dangers of chronic oversupply. We advocate a reduction of radiology residency positions such that supply closely approximates demand without exceeding it. Additional measures may be taken, if necessary, to restore market equilibrium in the event of a mild undersupply. Copyright © 2015 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model's basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM

  14. Documentation of the oil and gas supply module (OGSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

  15. DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk of the supply chain system, the customers’ demands are predicted first and this prediction is then used as an input to the supply chain model. In this paper a proposed evolving fuzzy predictor model will be used to predict the customers’ demands. For solving the supply chain model, a hybrid heuristic combining tabu search with simulated annealing sharing the same tabu list is developed.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In tradisionele voorsieningskettingvoorraadbestuur verteenwoordig bestellings die enigste vorm van van inligting wat deur ondernemings uitgeruil word. Inligtingstegnologie laat ondernemings egter deesdae toe om vraag- en voorraadata vinnig en goedkoop uit te ruil. Om 'n geïntegreerde plan te hê, het 'n vervaardiger nie alleen aanvraaginligting nodig van sy klante nie, maar ook aanbodinligting van sy leweransiers. In hierdie artikel word inligtingvloei geinkorporeer in 'n drie-vlakvoorsieningskettingmodel. Voorts, om die risiko in die voorsieningskettingmodel te verminder, word die klante se aanvraag eers vooruitgeskat en die vooruitskatting word dan gebruik as 'n inset tot die model. Hierdie artikel gebruik 'n groeiende wasige vooruitskattingsmodel om die klantebehoeftes voor uit te skat. Om die model op te los, word 'n hibriede heuristiese metode gekombineer met 'n "tabu"-soektog gebruik.

  16. Pollution source localization in an urban water supply network based on dynamic water demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xuesong; Zhu, Zhixin; Li, Tian

    2017-10-27

    Urban water supply networks are susceptible to intentional, accidental chemical, and biological pollution, which pose a threat to the health of consumers. In recent years, drinking-water pollution incidents have occurred frequently, seriously endangering social stability and security. The real-time monitoring for water quality can be effectively implemented by placing sensors in the water supply network. However, locating the source of pollution through the data detection obtained by water quality sensors is a challenging problem. The difficulty lies in the limited number of sensors, large number of water supply network nodes, and dynamic user demand for water, which leads the pollution source localization problem to an uncertainty, large-scale, and dynamic optimization problem. In this paper, we mainly study the dynamics of the pollution source localization problem. Previous studies of pollution source localization assume that hydraulic inputs (e.g., water demand of consumers) are known. However, because of the inherent variability of urban water demand, the problem is essentially a fluctuating dynamic problem of consumer's water demand. In this paper, the water demand is considered to be stochastic in nature and can be described using Gaussian model or autoregressive model. On this basis, an optimization algorithm is proposed based on these two dynamic water demand change models to locate the pollution source. The objective of the proposed algorithm is to find the locations and concentrations of pollution sources that meet the minimum between the analogue and detection values of the sensor. Simulation experiments were conducted using two different sizes of urban water supply network data, and the experimental results were compared with those of the standard genetic algorithm.

  17. Coordinating a supply chain with a loss-averse retailer and effort dependent demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liying; Wang, Yong

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights.

  18. Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer and Effort Dependent Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liying Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer’s decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights.

  19. Coordinating a Supply Chain with a Loss-Averse Retailer and Effort Dependent Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liying

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the channel coordination issue of a supply chain with a risk-neutral manufacturer and a loss-averse retailer facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to sales effort. Under the loss-averse newsvendor setting, a distribution-free gain/loss-sharing-and-buyback (GLB) contract has been shown to be able to coordinate the supply chain. However, we find that a GLB contract remains ineffective in managing the supply chain when retailer sales efforts influence the demand. To effectively coordinate the channel, we propose to combine a GLB contract with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract. In addition, we discover a special class of gain/loss contracts that can coordinate the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate the expected supply chain profit between the manufacturer and the retailer. We then analyze the effect of loss aversion on the retailer's decision-making behavior and supply chain performance. Finally, we perform a numerical study to illustrate the findings and gain additional insights. PMID:25197696

  20. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekkering, J.; Hengeveld, E.J.; Gemert, W.J.T. van; Broekhuis, A.A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The relation between energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain was analyzed. • Opportunities for improving a green gas supply chain were evaluated. • Fossil and renewable energy resources are made explicit in energy efficiency definition. • Switching to green electricity is the major contributor to improving the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas reduction. - Abstract: The energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A reference scenario was defined which reflects the current state of practice, assuming that input energy is from fossil origin. Possible improvements of this reference scenario were investigated. For this analysis two new definitions for energy input–output ratio were introduced; one based on input of primary energy from all origin, and one related to energy from fossil origin only. The influence of the improvements on greenhouse gas reduction and cost price was assessed too. Results show that electricity (from fossil origin) is the major contributor to energy input in the reference scenario. Switching to green electricity significantly improves the energy efficiency (both definitions) and greenhouse gas reduction. Preventing methane leakage during digestion and upgrading, and re-using heat within the supply chain also show improvements on these parameters as well as on cost price, although their influence is smaller. Decreasing the share of energy crops in the substrate mix shows a negative effect. It is shown that greenhouse gas reduction of more than 80% is possible with current technology. To meet this high sustainability level, multiple improvement options will have to be implemented in the green gas supply chain. Doing so will result in a modest decrease of the green gas

  1. Biogas supply to the natural gas supply grid. Study; Einspeisung von Biogas in das Erdgasnetz. Studie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinski, S. [DBI Gas- und Umwelttechnik GmbH, Leipzig (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    Biogas supply to the public gas grid is a new option discussed in the most recent publication of Fachagentur Nachwachsende Rohstoffe (FNR) e.V. The biogas is purified, upgraded to natural gas quality and fed into an existing gas grid. Once there, it can be transported across long distances and also used for electric power generation at the consumer side. The study investigates inhowfar and in what instances this method is feasible and promising. It discusses the technical background and the regional potential of biogas. Seven model biogas systems are presented as examples. (orig.)

  2. Prospects for the natural gas supply in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergmann, B.

    1993-01-01

    An overview is given of the current significance of and future prospects for natural gas in Europe. Special attention is given to the impressive development of natural gas in the energy markets of Europe during the last 20 years, the development of demand for natural gas, the procurement situation, and political framework conditions. By virtue of the environmental and energy political dictates governing modern industrial societies, the European gas economy finds itself dealing in an excellent product whose share in the energy market will continue to grow. The decisive challenge lies in procuring additional quantities, which will largely have to come from outside the territory of the European Community. In order to succeed in this task the gas economies need an energy political framework that strengthens, and not weakens, their position in the Community. (orig./HSCH) [de

  3. Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asif, M.; Muneer, T.

    2007-01-01

    Energy is inevitable for human life and a secure and accessible supply of energy is crucial for the sustainability of modern societies. Continuation of the use of fossil fuels is set to face multiple challenges: depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global warming and other environmental concerns, geopolitical and military conflicts and of late, continued and significant fuel price rise. These problems indicate an unsustainable situation. Renewable energy is the solution to the growing energy challenges. Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, and wave and tidal energy, are abundant, inexhaustible and environmentally friendly. This article provides an overview of the current and projected energy scene. Five countries, that presently have a significant impact on global energy situation, have been studied in this work. These include China, India, Russia, UK and USA. Together the present energy budget of these countries is roughly half that of the globe. Four of the above five countries that are discussed in this work - China, India, UK and USA are all net importers of energy and are heavily dependent on imports of fuel to sustain their energy demands. Their respective local oil reserves will only last 9, 6, 7 and 4 years, respectively. China, the emerging economy in the world, is however making exemplary development in renewable energy - in 2004 renewable energy in China grew by 25% against 7-9% growth in electricity demand. While in the same year, wind energy in China saw a growth of 35%. China is also leading the global solar thermal market as it has already installed solar collectors over 65 million square meters, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total collector area. This article quantifies the period of exhaustion of the current major energy sources, i.e. coal, oil, gas and nuclear fissile material. Projected demand for energy is also presented and a feasibility of switch over to renewable energy is discussed. The article also presents

  4. An Overview, with Emphasis on the Outlook for Supply and Demand - Where are Prices Going

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, Oliver

    1998-01-01

    According to this presentation, The oil shock of 1973 tripled the share of natural gas in the primary energy consumption in Western Europe. Power generation now emerges as the fastest growing market for gas. Under the impetus of the new measures to be implemented by the EU, as well as the willingness of governments and industrial consumers, the European gas market will gradually change. Price prospects represent the key issue of the new European model. On the one hand prices are likely to become more volatile, increasingly changing with the season. Long-term contract pricing formulas and competing prices may decouple the gas price from oil or petroleum product prices. On the other hand, as a clean energy source gas will register a sustained growth in demand. Gas will still require highly capitalistic infrastructure to reach the markets safely. 8 figs

  5. Plant physiological responses to hydrologically mediated changes in nitrogen supply on a boreal forest floodplain: a mechanism explaining the discrepancy in nitrogen demand and supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lina Koyama; Knut. Kielland

    2011-01-01

    A discrepancy between plant demand and soil supply of nitrogen (N) has been observed in early successional stages of riparian vegetation in interior Alaska. We hypothesized that a hydrologically mediated N supply serves as a mechanism to balance this apparent deficiency of plant N supply. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a tracer experiment and measured the...

  6. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh; Black-Schaffer, W. Stephen; Crawford, James M.; Gross, David; Karcher, Donald S.; Kaufman, Jill; Knapman, Doug; Prystowsky, Michael B.; Wheeler, Thomas M.; Bean, Sarah; Kumar, Paramhans; Sharma, Raghav; Chamoli, Vaibhav; Ghai, Vikrant; Gogia, Vineet; Weintraub, Sally; Cohen, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply) of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories), service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models. PMID:28725751

  7. Supply and Demand for Improved Sanitation: Results from Randomized Pricing Experiments in Rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peletz, Rachel; Cock-Esteb, Alicea; Ysenburg, Dorothea; Haji, Salim; Khush, Ranjiv; Dupas, Pascaline

    2017-06-20

    Improving access to sanitation is a global public health priority. Sufficient consumer demand is required for sanitation coverage to expand through private provision. To measure consumer demand for hygienic latrine platform products in rural Tanzania, we conducted a randomized, voucher-based real-money sales trial with 1638 households with unimproved latrines. We also evaluated multiple supply chain options to determine the costs of supplying latrine platform products to rural households. For concrete latrine SanPlats, 60% of households were willing to pay US$0.48 and 10% of households were willing to pay US$4.05, yet the average cost of supplying the SanPlat to households was US$7.51. Similarly, for plastic sanitary platforms, willingness-to-pay (WTP) dropped from almost 60% at a price of US$1.43 to 5% at a price of US$12.29, compared to an average supply cost of US$23.28. WTP was not significantly different between villages that had participated in the National Sanitation Campaign and those that had not. Randomized informational interventions, including hygiene data-sharing and peer-based exposure to latrine platform products, had minimal effects on WTP. In conclusion, current household demand for latrine platform products is too low to achieve national goals for improved sanitation coverage through fully commercial distribution.

  8. An Innovative Interactive Modeling Tool to Analyze Scenario-Based Physician Workforce Supply and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saurabh Gupta BPharm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective physician workforce management requires that the various organizations comprising the House of Medicine be able to assess their current and future workforce supply. This information has direct relevance to funding of graduate medical education. We describe a dynamic modeling tool that examines how individual factors and practice variables can be used to measure and forecast the supply and demand for existing and new physician services. The system we describe, while built to analyze the pathologist workforce, is sufficiently broad and robust for use in any medical specialty. Our design provides a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates by specialty experts about current and new activities in the scope of practice. The model describes the steps needed and data required for analysis of supply and demand. Our modeling tool allows educators and policy makers, in addition to physician specialty organizations, to assess how various factors may affect demand (and supply of current and emerging services. Examples of factors evaluated include types of professional services (3 categories with 16 subcategories, service locations, elements related to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, new technologies, aging population, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based systems of care. The model also helps identify where physicians in a given specialty will likely need to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practice to accommodate new value-based payment models.

  9. Competitiveness, Profitability, Input Demand and Output Supply of Maize Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanzidur Rahman

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The study assesses international competitiveness, profitability, output supply and input demand of maize production using a farm survey data of 165 farmers from two major maize growing areas (i.e., Dinajpur and Lalmonirhat districts of northwestern Bangladesh. Results revealed that maize production is globally competitive and, therefore, can successfully substitute its import. Maize production is also profitable at the farm level (Benefit Cost Ratio = 1.21 with no adverse influence of farm size on yield and profitability. Maize farmers are also responsive to changes in market prices of inputs and outputs. A 1% increase in maize price will increase output supply by 0.4%. The most dominant driver of maize supply and other input demands is land. A 1% increase in available land will increase maize supply by a substantial 3.9%. In addition, landless laborers will benefit through an increase in hired labor demand when land area increases. Policy implications include investments in R&D, tenurial reform to consolidate land holding and smooth functioning of the hired labor market in order to increase maize production and profitability in Bangladesh.

  10. Explaining regional variation in home care use by demand and supply variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Noort, Olivier; Schotanus, Fredo; van de Klundert, Joris; Telgen, Jan

    2018-02-01

    In the Netherlands, home care services like district nursing and personal assistance are provided by private service provider organizations and covered by private health insurance companies which bear legal responsibility for purchasing these services. To improve value for money, their procurement increasingly replaces fee-for-service payments with population based budgets. Setting appropriate population budgets requires adaptation to the legitimate needs of the population, whereas historical costs are likely to be influenced by supply factors as well, not all of which are necessarily legitimate. Our purpose is to explain home care costs in terms of demand and supply factors. This allows for adjusting historical cost patterns when setting population based budgets. Using expenses claims of 60 Dutch municipalities, we analyze eight demand variables and five supply variables with a multiple regression model to explain variance in the number of clients per inhabitant, costs per client and costs per inhabitant. Our models explain 69% of variation in the number of clients per inhabitant, 28% of costs per client and 56% of costs per inhabitant using demand factors. Moreover, we find that supply factors explain an additional 17-23% of variation. Predictors of higher utilization are home care organizations that are integrated with intramural nursing homes, higher competition levels among home care organizations and the availability of complementary services. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  11. The Growing Demand for Hospice and Palliative Medicine Physicians: Will the Supply Keep Up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupu, Dale; Quigley, Leo; Mehfoud, Nicholas; Salsberg, Edward S

    2018-04-01

    The need for hospice and palliative care is growing rapidly as the population increases and ages and as both hospice and palliative care become more accepted. Hospice and palliative medicine (HPM) is a relatively new physician specialty, currently training 325 new fellows annually. Given the time needed to increase the supply of specialty-trained physicians, it is important to assess future needs to guide planning for future training capacity. We modeled the need for and supply of specialist HPM physicians through the year 2040 to determine whether training capacity should continue growing. To create a benchmark for need, we used a population-based approach to look at the current geographic distribution of the HPM physician supply. To model future supply, we calculated the annual change in current supply by adding newly trained physicians and subtracting physicians leaving the labor force. The current U.S. supply of HPM specialists is 13.35 per 100,000 adults 65 and older. This ratio varies greatly across the country. Using alternate assumptions for future supply and demand, we project that need in 2040 will range from 10,640 to almost 24,000 HPM specialist physicians. Supply will range from 8100 to 19,000. Current training capacity is insufficient to keep up with population growth and demand for services. HPM fellowships would need to grow from the current 325 graduates annually to between 500 and 600 per year by 2030 to assure sufficient physician workforce for hospice and palliative care services given current service provision patterns. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimation of demand and supply relationships for beef cattle in Lampung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atien Priyanti

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available An increase in per capita income is followed by an increased demand in number and quality of meat . The purpose of the study was to identify and qualifying factors that influence the demand and supply of beef, and to determine the magnitude of response related to the increase in per capita income. In this study, the time series data from 1970 through 1993 was used and collected from the Directorate General for Livestock Services and Central Bureau of Statistics for the province ofLampung. The parameters observed were production and consumption of beef, retail price, population, per capita income and input price of beef production . A 2SLS method was used to perform the analysis . The results of this study showed that estimated demand and supply relationships using the simultaneous model of2SLS method is appropriate for beef cattle . The results indicated that retail price of beef is determined simultaneously by demand and supply linkages (P<0.01 . In addition, people in Lampung were responsive enough to anticipate changes on per capita income and lead to the potential for developing Lampung as a strategic beef industry area in Indonesia.

  13. California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibegbulam, B.N.

    1991-01-01

    Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

  14. Tourism Demand and Agriculture Supply: Basis for Agritourism Development in Quezon Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichole Ann A. Lago

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Establishing the tourism and agriculture linkage is a vital factor for the promotion of agri - tourism. This study aimed to determine the tourism and agriculture factors in Quezon province . Specifically, to present the profile of tourists and farmers; determine the supply and demand – related factors influencing the linkage between tourism and agriculture; test the significant difference in the responses of tourists and farmers in terms of su pply and demand related factors; test the significant differences on the supply and demand related factors when grouped according to profile; test the significant relationship between tourists’ motivation and preferences and propose an action plan for agri - tourism development in Quezon. This study used descriptive design with farmers and tourist as respondents. Self - made questionnaire was utilized as data gathering instrument. Percentage, frequency distribution, weighted mean, T - Test, ANOVA and Pearson - r co rrelation were the statistical tools used. Based on the result, it was revealed that tourism and agriculture linkages in Quezon province were relatively strong. Educational attainment of farmers is an important factor for agriculture supply, civil status a nd income were found to be the major indicators of tourist demands while safety and security becomes the major consideration of tourists to visit agritourism sites. It is recommended that there is a need to educat e farmers in order to encourage diversifica tion of farms into agri - tourism wherein market segmentation is vital for agri - tourism promotion while fostering a community - based agri - tourism in Quezon province is likewise highly recommende

  15. MARKET SUPPLY RESPONSE AND DEMAND FOR LOCAL RICE IN NIGERIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR SELF-SUFFICIENCY POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M RAHJI

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the supply response and demand for local rice in Nigeria between 1960 and 2004. A system of equations using secondary data was estimated by OLS and 2SLS techniques. Area planted with local rice is mainly affected by expected price of output, agriculture wage rate and by the partial adjustment coefficient. The short-run response elasticity is 0.077. The implied long-run response elasticity is 1.578. The partial adjustment measure is 0.049. This, points to the difficulty of supply response to changing economic conditions. The price elasticity of demand obtained is 0.841. The demand for local rice is thus price inelastic. Rice income elasticity is 0.3378. It is also inelastic. The ban on rice importation in Nigeria could be said to be a step in the right direction. This policy should be continued and policed. However, price, output and non-price incentives that can exert significant influence on rice supply response and demand are required if the self-sufficiency goal is to be achieved.

  16. A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalton, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examined electricity pricing issues for both the immediate future as well as over the long term. The near term outlook resources for the summer of 2004 were reviewed. Intermediate critical supply and demand issues were projected with consideration given to the return of the Pickering A plant and coal phase out. In the long term, it was considered that pricing and demand would reflect conservation issues and demand side response, as well as the timing of Requests For Proposals (RFPs) and the phase out of coal-fired capacity. The impact of the coal phase-out in Ontario was examined, with particular reference to timing and market structure implications. Potential conservation impacts were presented and projected Ontario supply/demand balances were evaluated. The challenges facing the new market structure include pricing dynamics and a reliance on RFPs. The significance of specifying diversity objectives was also discussed. It was concluded that the Ontario Ministry of Energy should play a role in establishing targets for conservation, renewable energy and the overall supply of electricity. Rigorous analysis is necessary before specifying targets in terms of hydroelectric and nuclear generation as opposed to non-fossil generation. tabs., figs

  17. Liberalisation and the security of gas supply in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Philip

    2005-01-01

    This paper contests the view held by the current UK government and its industry regulator, OFGEM, that liberalisation is good for security of supply. Focusing on the downstream aspects of the security of UK gas supply, on system security, it considers the impact of the different aspects of liberalisation: of legal governance, supply competition, de-integration, market simulation, regulation and the interaction of liberalised gas and electricity markets. Categorising these impacts in terms of security threats and threats to security response, it finds that individually and as a complex collectivity they have increased the risks of supply failure, either potential or already realised, in a variety of ways: from creating increased uncertainty and failing to signal adequate or appropriate investment, to legal ambiguity which divorces responsibility from liability and renders legal liability indeterminate ex ante. Moreover, one of the UK government's responses to these increased dangers, which it does appear to perceive, is revealed as itself paralysed by the liberalisation paradigm: the government can only intervene pre-emptively with information in attempt to persuade the market to behave as it thinks it should. Meanwhile, however, the government has also had to recognise its default responsibility for security of supply and make preparations to intervene in an emergency situation: liberalisation can only be challenged when it is already too late

  18. Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Timothy M; Storm, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Ritashree; Drogan, Oksana; Keran, Christopher M; Donofrio, Peter D; Henderson, Victor W; Kaminski, Henry J; Stevens, James C; Vidic, Thomas R

    2013-07-30

    This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.

  19. Supply prospects and network integration in the European natural gas sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergmann, B.

    1998-01-01

    At least for the next 10-15 years, natural gas will be the fastest growing energy form in Europe, with a higher rate of growth in consumption (from a lower base) in central Europe than in western Europe. Although most of the prospective demand until 2010 is covered by signed import contracts and indigenous production, important additional gas supply capacity still has to be developed out of a plenitude of reserves within and (in the long run primarily) outside western and central Europe. The real problem is how to mobilise the reserves economically and direct them towards the European market, in competition with other markets. Europe has a sophisticated transmission system whose development has gone hand-in-hand with long-term import agreements. Among the missing links is the Interconnector, which, at the end of 1998, is due to integrate the UK and Ireland into mainland Europe. This is expected to enhance security of supply in both areas, to balance prices and maybe also to foster ideas of liberalisation. Overall, the European gas industry is in an excellent position to develop the supply of gas in an environmentally benign way. The future belongs all the more to natural gas, the fewer the mistakes that are made when it comes to matters of legal frameworks and taxation

  20. The Model of Gas Supply Capacity Simulation In Regional Energy Security Framework: Policy Studies PT. X Cirebon Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuryadin; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

    2017-10-01

    The needs of energy are increasing every year. The unavailability of energy will cause economic losses and weaken energy security. To overcome the availability of gas supply in the future, planning are cruacially needed. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the system, so that the process of gas distribution is running properly. In this research, system dynamic method will be used to measure how much supply capacity planning is needed until 2050, with parameters of demand in industrial, household and commercial sectors. From the model obtained PT.X Cirebon area in 2031 was not able to meet the needs of gas customers in the Cirebon region, as well as with Businnes as usual scenario, the ratio of gas fulfillment only until 2027. The implementation of the national energy policy that is the use of NRE as government intervention in the model is produced up to 2035 PT.X Cirebon area is still able to supply the gas needs of its customers.

  1. Resolution of issues with renewable energy penetration in a long-range power system demand-supply planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ikegami, Takashi; Nonaka, Shunsuke; Azuma, Hitoshi

    2012-01-01

    Under the anticipated high penetration of variable renewable energy generation such as photovoltaic, the issue of supply demand balance should be evaluated and fixed. Technologies such as demand activation, and energy storage are expected to solve the issue. Under the situation, a long-range power system supply demand analysis should have the capability for the evaluation in its analysis steps of demand preparation, maintenance scheduling, and economic dispatch analysis. This paper presents results of a parametric analysis of the reduction of PV and Wind generation curtailment reduction by deployment of batteries. Based on a set of scenarios of the prospects of Japan's 10 power system demand-supply condition in 2030, the demand-supply balance capability are analyzed assuming PV and wind generation variation, demand activation and dispatchable batteries. (author)

  2. Distributed supply-demand balancing and the physics of smart energy systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.

    This paper presents an overview of two different perspectives that we take to smart energy systems, both in the power and the gas grid.The first is taking a distributed optimal control point of view, applicable to a network of households with production devices, but also with demand side control,

  3. An integrated approach to energy supply and demand: The role of nuclear energy in Southern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neethling, D.C.; Bredell, J.H.; Basson, J.A.

    1990-01-01

    The importance of an integrated approach to the development of an electricity strategy for Southern Africa is emphasized in view of the numerous options and initiatives that are available for supply and demand side management. Apart from present uncertainties concerning future electricity demand, other factors such as the availability of coal and uranium and the comparative costs of nuclear and coal-based electricity are regarded as the most important parameters which have as yet not been sufficiently quantified to decide on the timing and extent of nuclear energy in Southern Africa. (author)

  4. Investigating risk and robustness measures for supply chain network design under demand uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Govindan, Kannan; Fattahi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses a multi-stage and multi-period supply chain network design problem in which multiple commodities should be produced through different subsequent levels of manufacturing processes. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic program under stochastic and highly time......-variable demands. To deal with the stochastic demands, a Latin Hypercube Sampling method is applied to generate a fan of scenarios and then, a backward scenario reduction technique reduces the number of scenarios. Weighted mean-risk objectives by using different risk measures and minimax objective are examined...

  5. Analysis of transaction costs for the supply and demand for wood fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roos, A.; Bohlin, F.; Hektor, B.; Hillring, B.; Parikka, M.

    2001-12-01

    The objective of the project was to analyse the importance of transaction costs for the supply and demand for woodfuels in Sweden. The project covered the period of great expansion of woodfuel use in the district heating sector, from 1980 until present. It uses literature studies, case studies and surveys. New institutional theory and transaction cost theory was applied. Several transaction costs have influenced both supply from the forest owners and demand from the main users, the district heating plants. Many of these transaction costs have been reduced by the market players, through learning, technical improvements and institutional innovations. Actions to reduce transaction costs have accompanied technical improvements of handling and transport. Strategies for woodfuel procurement have also been analysed. Important conclusions of the project for a change in the energy system are presented

  6. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2012 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After an introduction presenting the objective of this report and the method used for the forecasts, this document proposes, first, an analysis of the medium-term evolution of: 1 - electricity consumption (past trends, medium-term perspectives, medium-term consumption scenarios); 2 - electricity supply (nuclear production, centralised and decentralised production from fossil-fueled power plants, hydro-power, wind-power and photovoltaic production, peak-load management); 3 - supply and demand balance (probabilistic approach, reference scenario, scenario sensitivity with respect to the demand). Then it presents the long-term determining factors (socio-economic context, energy efficiency, energy mix, interconnected grids development) and the long-term prospective scenarios (medium- and strong-consumption, new-mix, low growth). Finally, a summary and a comparison with the 2011 report is made

  7. What State Supply and Demand Studies Tell Us about Special Education Personnel Needs. Practice Brief. Spring 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Eve

    2011-01-01

    Critical to any comprehensive plan for addressing personnel shortages in the field of special education is the gathering of data on supply and demand at the state and local education agency (LEA) levels. Many states now conduct regular supply and demand studies in order to inform decisions regarding the recruitment, preparation and retention of…

  8. 42 CFR 84.156 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements. (a) Inhalation resistance shall not... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, demand class; minimum requirements. 84.156 Section 84.156 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE...

  9. 42 CFR 84.157 - Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. (a) The static... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Airflow resistance test; Type C supplied-air respirator, pressure-demand class; minimum requirements. 84.157 Section 84.157 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH...

  10. The Eastring gas pipeline in the context of the Central and Eastern European gas supply challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mišík, Matúš; Nosko, Andrej

    2017-11-01

    Ever since the 2009 natural gas crisis, energy security has been a crucial priority for countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Escalating in 2014, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia further fuelled negative expectations about the future development of energy relations for the region predominantly supplied by Russia. As a response to the planned cessation of gas transit through the Brotherhood pipeline, which brings Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine and Slovakia, the Slovak transmission system operator Eustream proposed the Eastring pipeline. This Perspective analyses this proposal and argues that neither the perceived decrease in Slovak energy security nor the loss of economic rent from the international gas transit should be the main policy driver behind such a major infrastructure project. Although marketed as an answer to current Central and Eastern European gas supply security challenges, the Eastring pipeline is actually mainly focused on issues connected to the Slovak gas transit.

  11. How to optimize tourism destination supply: A case in Shanghai from perspective of supplier and demand side perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Huaju; Fang, Chengjiang

    2018-02-01

    It is vital to assess the regional tourist supply capability by suppliers and demand groups. The supply side’s evaluation of the regional supply capacity determines the direction of the supply investment in future, the demand side’s evaluation indicates their satisfaction degree of the destination supply and also effects their revisit the tourism destination. Therefore, the assessment of the supply and demand sides is an important reference for the reform of destination supply side, which helps us find the shortage of the destination supply factors and optimize tourism destination supply promptly. This paper through investigating tourism supply and demand groups in Shanghai, used the survey data and constructed tourism supply optimization model, analyzed the current situation of tourism supply factors in Shanghai. Results showed that the environment of Shanghai should be improved first, including improving urban air and water quality, up-grading public sanitation and increasing urban green coverage. Other supply factors improved priority were information and marketing, we should improve the information consultation of scenic spots, increase the intensity of tourism promotion and provide more free travel publicity brochures.

  12. Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pan, Hubert Y. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Haffty, Bruce G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School – University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey (United States); Falit, Benjamin P. [Radiation Oncology Associates, Lowell, Massachusetts (United States); Buchholz, Thomas A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Wilson, Lynn D. [Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut (United States); Hahn, Stephen M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Smith, Benjamin D., E-mail: bsmith3@mdanderson.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.

  13. Snake prices and crocodile appetites: Aquatic wildlife supply and demand on Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, SE; Allison, EH; Gill, JA; Reynolds, JD

    2010-01-01

    Commercial trade is a major driver of over-exploitation of wild species, but the pattern of demand and how it responds to changes in supply is poorly understood. Here we explore the markets for snakes from Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia to evaluate future exploitation scenarios, identify entry points for conservation and, more generally, to illustrate the value of multi-scale analysis of markets to traded wildlife conservation. In Cambodia, the largest driver of snake exploitation is the domestic...

  14. Developing Talent from a Supply-Demand Perspective: An Optimization Model for Managers

    OpenAIRE

    Moheb-Alizadeh, Hadi; Handfield, Robert B.

    2017-01-01

    While executives emphasize that human resources (HR) are a firm's biggest asset, the level of research attention devoted to planning talent pipelines for complex global organizational environments does not reflect this emphasis. Numerous challenges exist in establishing human resource management strategies aligned with strategic operations planning and growth strategies. We generalize the problem of managing talent from a supply-demand standpoint through a resource acquisition lens, to an ind...

  15. What causes Irish recessions: fluctuations in aggregate demand or aggregate supply?

    OpenAIRE

    Cosgrove, Karen; Roche, Maurice

    1994-01-01

    The new classical view of the market economy is used to impose restrictions on a vector autoregression of output, interest rates, prices and money, to identify aggregate demand and supply structural disturbances. We use the estimated structural vector autoregression to decompose Irish GDP growth into components associated with major macroeconomic disturbances in order to identify the likely causes of Irish recessions. The results suggest that recessions in the 1970s were mainly due to aggr...

  16. A Micro Simulated and Demand Driven Supply Chain Model To Calculate Regional Production and Consumption Matrices

    OpenAIRE

    Abed, Omar; Bellemans, Tom; Janssens, Gerrit; Patil, Bharat; Yasar, Ansar; Janssens, Davy; Wets, Geert

    2013-01-01

    Detailed data on regional goods production and consumption are traditionally the starting point to model freight transport on a nationwide scale. The conversation of those goods afterwards into various vehicle load types and the different logistics operations needed to deliver the requested goods type and quantity, follow from that starting point in the modeling process. In this paper, a demand driven microsimulated supply chain model is presented. The model shall be a first step towards calc...

  17. A Micro Simulated and Demand Driven Supply Chain Model To Calculate Regional Production and Consumption Matrices

    OpenAIRE

    Abed, Omar; BELLEMANS, Tom; JANSSENS, Gerrit; Yasar, Ansar-Ul-Haque; JANSSENS, Davy; WETS, Geert

    2014-01-01

    The various operations of production, distribution and consumption of goods make up supply chain networks. The usual pre requisite to model freight flows on between geographical zones, is an understanding of intra zonal production and consumption relations. This is in essence an aggregation of all individual firm to firm interactions taking place in form of production and consumption of goods, as well as transportation firms involved in the goods exchange process. In this paper, a demand ...

  18. TRANSPETRO gas security of supply program; Programa de confiabilidade de suprimento de gas natural da TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the Gas Security of Supply Program that is being implemented at TRANSPETRO since 2002. It includes the application of the state of the art techniques and models related to reliability engineering. The main objective of the program is to evaluate and optimize overall gas network performance and to provide gas to different consumers (industrial, residential, thermo-plants and vehicles) in compliance with stated reliability levels. Heavy fines will be applied to PETROBRAS in case of occurrence of shortfalls. We hope that this paper can contribute to a wider discussion about this subject of performance indicators involving security of supply, safety and environment preservation. (author)

  19. Improvement in supply chain management for oil and gas sector using drag reduction theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anjum, A.A.; Chughtai, A.; Shafeeq, A.; Muhammad, A.

    2010-01-01

    Supply chain management is an integrative philosophy about managing the flow of distribution channels from supplier to the consumer. PARCO, an oil and gas company in Pakistan has three existing pipelines. Out of three, two pipelines are running parallel from Karachi to Mehmood kot. One pipeline is of crude oil and meeting the demand of PARCO refinery while second pipeline is of High Speed Diesel (HSD) and third pipeline is of (HSD and Kerosene) running from Mehmood Kot to Machhike (Sheikhupura). PARCO supply petroleum products from Shikarpur, Mehmood Kot, Faisalabad and Machhike to oil marketing companies (OMCs) as per their share, standard and demand. The purpose of these pipelines is to meet the country demand for petroleum products at various locations all over Pakistan. In the peak season when OMCs have high demand and receipt of product from PARCO pipelines are less, there is a need to enhance the flow rate of oil inside the PARCO pipelines to fulfill the demand of OMCs. This could be done economically by the application of drag reduction theory. So by injecting drag reducer, dragging of the oil inside the pipeline could appreciably be reduced thereby improving the pumping of oil. (author)

  20. Information Technology Framework for Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Demand Management: a Brazilian Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Domingos Antoniolli

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at proposing an information technology framework for demand management within a dyad on the supply chain pharmaceutical industry. The paper adopts the exploratory study as research method, involving a producer of generic drugs and its main distributor. Data was collected by semi - structured interviews. In pharmaceu tical supply chain, sharing information boosted by information technology translates into greater flexibility and reliability, lower costs, obtained through more reliable forecasting, and lower inventory requirements. There are few initiatives involving In formation Technology (IT applied to demand management in pharmaceutical supply chains available in the literature. It was found that the IT framework proposed in this research is adherent to the demand management of the focused pharmaceutical dyad. Other assumption was that, if partners processes integration exist, better supply chain performance is achieved. It was found that, by means of proposed tools and solutions, such as RFID and involved partners applications integration, this goal could be achieved . Because of the chosen research approach, results may be restricted to these specific dyadic processes. Further application of the proposed IT framework have to be tested. The paper identifies demand management strategic and operational processes that can reach a better performance by using the proposed IT framework. Based on the literature, were identified which IT requirements should be met to demand management processes optimization. Additionally, were applied questionnaires and interviews to the focuse d dyad personnel, to corroborate the data identified in the literature. Answers found in the case study link literature elements with those stated by respondents. Finally, based on this, was conceived an IT framework composed of three elements: 1. One spec ific for infrastructure, to enable data and systems interoperability among SC participants, considering a

  1. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2007-01-01

    The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

  2. Nitrogen Gas Heating and Supply System for SST-1 Tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, Ziauddin; Pathan, Firozkhan; Paravastu, Yuvakiran; George, Siju; Ramesh, Gattu; Bindu, Hima; Raval, Dilip C.; Thankey, Prashant; Dhanani, Kalpesh; Pradhan, Subrata

    2013-01-01

    Steady State Tokamak (SST-1) vacuum vessel baking as well as baking of the first wall components of SST-1 are essential to plasma physics experiments. Under a refurbishment spectrum of SST-1, the nitrogen gas heating and supply system has been fully refurbished. The SST-1 vacuum vessel consists of ultra-high vacuum (UHV) compatible eight modules and eight sectors. Rectangular baking channels are embedded on each of them. Similarly, the SST-1 plasma facing components (PFC) are comprised of modular graphite diverters and movable graphite based limiters. The nitrogen gas heating and supply system would bake the plasma facing components at 350°C and the SST-1 vacuum vessel at 150°C over an extended duration so as to remove water vapour and other absorbed gases. An efficient PLC based baking facility has been developed and implemented for monitoring and control purposes. This paper presents functional and operational aspects of a SST-1 nitrogen gas heating and supply system. Some of the experimental results obtained during the baking of SST-1 vacuum modules and sectors are also presented here. (fusion engineering)

  3. An Empirical Estimation of the Factors Affecting Demand and Supply of Poultry Meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Ghafoor*, Hammad Badar, Maqsood Hussain and Naeem Tariq

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Poultry sector is one of the most important segments in agriculture sector of Pakistan. Despite growth in poultry sector, many new challenges including bird flu, fluctuating prices and higher cost of production have affected pace of development of this sector. The present study was conducted to evaluate the impact of various variables affecting supply of poultry birds and demand of poultry meat in Faisalabad, Pakistan. Cross sectional data were collected from 40 poultry farmers and 40 consumers selected randomly from Faisalabad city. Simple linear form of regression analysis was employed to estimate effect of major variables. Sale price of poultry birds, average cost of production and experience of the poultry farmers significantly (P<0.05 affected supply of poultry birds, whereas education of farmers and distance from markets had non-significant effect. Income of the consumers, family size and retail price of poultry meat were found significant variables, whereas age and education of consumers were non-significant variables affecting demand. A qualitative variable was used to capture effect of bird flu on supply and demand of poultry meat, which was found significant in both models. This finding establishes the serious implications of bird flu epidemic for poultry industry in Pakistan.

  4. Demand and supply-based operating modes--a framework for analyzing health care service production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lillrank, Paul; Groop, P Johan; Malmström, Tomi J

    2010-12-01

    The structure of organizations that provide services should reflect the possibilities of and constraints on production that arise from the market segments they serve. Organizational segmentation in health care is based on urgency and severity as well as disease type, bodily function, principal method, or population subgroup. The result is conflicting priorities, goals, and performance metrics. A managerial perspective is needed to identify activities with similar requirements for integration, coordination, and control. The arguments in this article apply new reasoning to the previous literature. The method used in this article to classify health care provision distinguishes different types of health problems that share generic constraints of production. The analysis leads to seven different demand-supply combinations, each with its own operational logic. These are labeled demand and supply-based operating modes (DSO modes), and constitute the managerial building blocks of health care organizations. The modes are Prevention, Emergency, One visit, Project, Elective, Cure, and Care. As analytical categories the DSO modes can be used to understand current problems. Several operating modes in one unit create managerial problems of conflicting priorities, goals, and performance metrics. The DSO modes are constructed as managerially homogeneous categories or care platforms responding to general types of demand, and supply constraints. The DSO modes bring methods of industrial management to bear on efforts to improve health care. © 2010 Milbank Memorial Fund. Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

  5. Research on green supply chain coordination strategy for uncertain market demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jian; Chen, Yangyang; Lu, Bo; Tong, Chenlu; Zhou, Gengui

    2015-03-01

    Based on the status that the green market began to develop (e.g. pharmaceutical industry) in Mainland China, the paper mainly discusses how members of the green supply chain (GSC) cooperate effectively in the process of the supply chain operations. For the uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green products, the GSC coordination strategy is put forward based on the Stackelberg game that the manufacturer is the leader and distributors are the followers. The relationship between the proposed coordination strategy and several factors including the distributor's amount, the distributor's risk aversion and the uncertainties of market demand are analyzed. It indicates that, when there are uncertainties existing in the market demand of the green product, the revenue of each enterprise, the overall revenue and the customer's welfare all decrease; while the increase in the number of distributors and low risk aversion of them are beneficial to the entire GSC and the customer. The conclusions have good guidance for the operational decisions of the green supply chain when the green market is in its initial formation.

  6. The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

    2015-01-01

    Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

  7. Geographic inequities in liver allograft supply and demand: does it affect patient outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Abbas; Kaplan, Bruce; Riaz, Irbaz B; Porubsky, Marian; Habib, Shahid; Rilo, Horacio; Gruessner, Angelika C; Gruessner, Rainer W G

    2015-03-01

    Significant geographic inequities mar the distribution of liver allografts for transplantation. We analyzed the effect of geographic inequities on patient outcomes. During our study period (January 1 through December 31, 2010), 11,244 adult candidates were listed for liver transplantation: 5,285 adult liver allografts became available, and 5,471 adult recipients underwent transplantation. We obtained population data from the 2010 United States Census. To determine the effect of regional supply and demand disparities on patient outcomes, we performed linear regression and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Our proposed disparity metric, the ratio of listed candidates to liver allografts available varied from 1.3 (region 11) to 3.4 (region 1). When that ratio was used as the explanatory variable, the R(2) values for outcome measures were as follows: 1-year waitlist mortality, 0.23 and 1-year posttransplant survival, 0.27. According to our multivariate analysis, the ratio of listed candidates to liver allografts available had a significant effect on waitlist survival (hazards ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.40) but was not a significant risk factor for posttransplant survival. We found significant differences in liver allograft supply and demand--but these differences had only a modest effect on patient outcomes. Redistricting and allocation-sharing schemes should seek to equalize regional supply and demand rather than attempting to equalize patient outcomes.

  8. Assessment of Sustainability of Urban Water Supply and Demand Management Options: A Comprehensive Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumudu Rathnayaka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive evaluation framework that can assess a wide range of water supply and demand management policy options in terms of economic, social, environmental, risk-based, and functional performance is crucial to ascertain their level of sustainability. However, such a detailed, generic, and holistic policy evaluation framework is not found in the literature. This paper reviews studies to evaluate water supply and/or demand management options conducted during 2000–2016. Primarily, the paper reviews the evaluation criteria used by different studies for decision making given their significant difference and the importance of a comprehensive set of criteria to complete a rigorous evaluation. In addition, a comprehensive set of water supply and demand management options are not considered together for a comparative assessment to prioritise best options for a certain area and time. Further, performance of these options needs to be evaluated for a range of uncertainties arising from changes of spatial and temporal variables of the system. While this paper highlights the important aspects that need to be included in a comprehensive policy evaluation framework, available studies collectively present a rich set of information to support it.

  9. Landscaping capacity-building initiatives in epidemiology in India: bridging the demand-supply gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodpey, Sanjay; Pandey, Anuja; Murhekar, Manoj; Sharma, Anjali

    2015-01-01

    India, the second most populous country in the world, has 17% of the world's population but its total share of global disease burden is 21%. With epidemiological transition, the challenge of the public health system is to deal with a high burden of noncommunicable diseases, while still continuing the battle against communicable diseases. To combat this progression, public health capacity-building initiatives for the health workforce are necessary to develop essential skills in epidemiology and competencies in other related fields of public health. This study is an effort to systematically explore the training programmes in epidemiology in India and to understand the demand-supply dynamics of epidemiologists in the country. A systematic, predefined approach, with three parallel strategies, was used to collect and assemble the data regarding epidemiology training in India and assess the demand-supply of epidemiologists in the country. The programmes offering training in epidemiology included degree and diploma courses offered by departments of preventive and social medicine/community medicine in medical colleges and 19 long-term academic programmes in epidemiology, with an estimated annual output of 1172 per year. The demand analysis for epidemiologists estimated that there is need for at least 3289 epidemiologists to cater for the demand of various institutions in the country. There is a wide gap in demand-supply of epidemiologists in the country and an urgent need for further strengthening of epidemiology training in India. More capacity-building and training initiatives in epidemiology are therefore urgently required to promote research and address the public health challenges confronting the country.

  10. Office of oil and natural gas supply development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buck, A. L.

    1978-11-01

    From its origin in the Department of the Interior until its transfer to the Federal Energy Office in December 1973, the Office of Oil and Gas served as the focal point for the coordination of all of the federal government's many interests in oil and gas. A sttaff agency, reporting originally to the Secretary of the Interior and later to the Assistant Secretary for Mineral Resources, it was responsible for providing the data and knowledge upon which oil and gas policy at various levels of the government was formulated. It was an effective channel of communication with the appropriate state agencies, with the domestic oil and gas industry, and with international organizations concerned with the supply of oil and gas. Working through a complicated system of industry-government committees, the office was responsible for the production of an enormous volume of significant reports through the years. It was the action agency for emergency preparedness, providing the Secretary of the Interior with a capability to respond effectively to emergencies, both large and small, which might affect the nation's supply of oil and gas. In the 27-year history of the Office of Oil and Gas, the emergency readiness functions emerge as by far the most absorbing of its many concerns. The events and actions of the office, during those times when instability in the Middle East and around the world threatened to interrupt the flow of petroleum, make interesting studies of the unique cooperation between the federal government and an industry so essential to the nation's well-being.

  11. Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kale, Rajesh V.; Pohekar, Sanjay D.

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed. - Highlights: • Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). • Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years. • Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates. • Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios. • Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios

  12. Contrasting electricity demand with wind power supply: case study in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, P.; Janosi, I. M.; Varga, L.

    2009-01-01

    We compare the demand of a large electricity consumer with supply given by wind farms installed at two distant geographic locations. Obviously such situation is rather unrealistic, however our main goal is a quantitative characterization of the intermittency of wind electricity. The consumption pattern consists of marked daily and weekly cycles interrupted by periods of holidays. In contrast, wind electricity production has neither short-time nor seasonal periodicities. We show that wind power integration over a restricted area cannot provide a stable base load supply, independently of the excess capacity. Further essential result is that the statistics are almost identical for a weekly periodic pattern of consumption and a constant load of the same average value. The length of both adequate supply and shortfall intervals exhibits a scale-free (power-law) frequency distribution, possible consequences are shortly discussed. (author)

  13. Modelling supply and demand of bioenergy from short rotation coppice and Miscanthus in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauen, A W; Dunnett, A J; Richter, G M; Dailey, A G; Aylott, M; Casella, E; Taylor, G

    2010-11-01

    Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Contrasting Electricity Demand with Wind Power Supply: Case Study in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imre M. Jánosi

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We compare the demand of a large electricity consumer with supply given by wind farms installed at two distant geographic locations. Obviously such situation is rather unrealistic, however our main goal is a quantitative characterization of the intermittency of wind electricity. The consumption pattern consists of marked daily and weekly cycles interrupted by periods of holidays. In contrast, wind electricity production has neither short-time nor seasonal periodicities. We show that wind power integration over a restricted area cannot provide a stable baseload supply, independently of the excess capacity. Further essential result is that the statistics are almost identical for a weekly periodic pattern of consumption and a constant load of the same average value. The length of both adequate supply and shortfall intervals exhibits a scale-free (power-law frequency distribution, possible consequences are shortly discussed.

  15. Dynamic Pricing and Supply Coordination with Reimbursement Contract under Random Yield and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the dynamic pricing and supply chain coordination in a decentralized system that consists of one supplier and one manufacturer, in which both the market demand and production yield are stochastic. We show that the centralized expected profit is jointly concave in the production quantity and order quantity when the price is ex-ante selected. We also derive the equilibrium strategies in the decentralized system and prove that the entire profit of supply chain is inevitably lower than that under centralized system. Based on this, we propose a reimbursement contract to coordinate the decentralized supply chain so as to achieve the maximized profit. It is worth mentioning that, under reimbursement contract, the equilibrium production and order quantities are irrelevant to the manufacturer's risk sharing coefficient but are only determined by the supplier’s risk sharing coefficient.

  16. A stochastic simulator of a blood product donation environment with demand spikes and supply shocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ming-Wen; Reich, Nicholas G; Crawford, Stephen O; Brookmeyer, Ron; Louis, Thomas A; Nelson, Kenrad E

    2011-01-01

    The availability of an adequate blood supply is a critical public health need. An influenza epidemic or another crisis affecting population mobility could create a critical donor shortage, which could profoundly impact blood availability. We developed a simulation model for the blood supply environment in the United States to assess the likely impact on blood availability of factors such as an epidemic. We developed a simulator of a multi-state model with transitions among states. Weekly numbers of blood units donated and needed were generated by negative binomial stochastic processes. The simulator allows exploration of the blood system under certain conditions of supply and demand rates, and can be used for planning purposes to prepare for sudden changes in the public's health. The simulator incorporates three donor groups (first-time, sporadic, and regular), immigration and emigration, deferral period, and adjustment factors for recruitment. We illustrate possible uses of the simulator by specifying input values for an 8-week flu epidemic, resulting in a moderate supply shock and demand spike (for example, from postponed elective surgeries), and different recruitment strategies. The input values are based in part on data from a regional blood center of the American Red Cross during 1996-2005. Our results from these scenarios suggest that the key to alleviating deficit effects of a system shock may be appropriate timing and duration of recruitment efforts, in turn depending critically on anticipating shocks and rapidly implementing recruitment efforts.

  17. Information Sharing and Channel Construction of Supply Chain under Asymmetric Demand Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Information sharing and marketing channel building have become an important problem of supply chain management theory and practice. The research of information sharing focused on traditional channel of supply chain between upstream and downstream enterprises; however, the research ignores the behavior of information sharing with potential entrants and composite structure characteristics about traditional marketing channel with the direct channel. This paper uses the model to research the effects brought about sharing demand information with potential entrants and building marketing channel, which reveals information sharing and channel building mechanism in the supply chain. The study found that the five-force model of Porter regards potential entrants only as a threat that is one-sided. When the channel competitiveness meets certain conditions, manufacturer and retailer will share demand information with potential entrants. Building composite marketing channel is the manufacturer's absolute dominant strategy. Channel construction will increase the entry barriers for potential entrants and weaken the effect of double marginalization; meanwhile, the performance of supply chain will be augmented.

  18. The key role of nitric oxide in hypoxia: hypoxic vasodilation and energy supply-demand matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umbrello, Michele; Dyson, Alex; Feelisch, Martin; Singer, Mervyn

    2013-11-10

    A mismatch between energy supply and demand induces tissue hypoxia with the potential to cause cell death and organ failure. Whenever arterial oxygen concentration is reduced, increases in blood flow--hypoxic vasodilation--occur in an attempt to restore oxygen supply. Nitric oxide (NO) is a major signaling and effector molecule mediating the body's response to hypoxia, given its unique characteristics of vasodilation (improving blood flow and oxygen supply) and modulation of energetic metabolism (reducing oxygen consumption and promoting utilization of alternative pathways). This review covers the role of oxygen in metabolism and responses to hypoxia, the hemodynamic and metabolic effects of NO, and mechanisms underlying the involvement of NO in hypoxic vasodilation. Recent insights into NO metabolism will be discussed, including the role for dietary intake of nitrate, endogenous nitrite (NO₂⁻) reductases, and release of NO from storage pools. The processes through which NO levels are elevated during hypoxia are presented, namely, (i) increased synthesis from NO synthases, increased reduction of NO₂⁻ to NO by heme- or pterin-based enzymes and increased release from NO stores, and (ii) reduced deactivation by mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase. Several reviews covered modulation of energetic metabolism by NO, while here we highlight the crucial role NO plays in achieving cardiocirculatory homeostasis during acute hypoxia through both vasodilation and metabolic suppression. We identify a key position for NO in the body's adaptation to an acute energy supply-demand mismatch.

  19. Questioning the sustainable palm oil demand: case study from French-Indonesia supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalil, D.; Barus, R.

    2018-02-01

    Sustainable palm oil has been widely debated. Consuming countries insist certified sustainable produces palm oil, but in fact the absorption of the certified palm oil is still less than 60%. This raise questions about the sustainable palm oil demand. In this study, such a condition will be analysed in French-Indonesia supply chain case. Using monthly and quarterly data from 2010 to 2016 with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model, demand influencing factors and price integration in each market of the supply chain is estimated. Two scenarios namely re-export and direct export models are considered in the Error Correction Model. The results show that France Gross Domestic Product, prices of France palm oil import from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Germany, and price of France groundnut import significantly influence the France palm oil import volume from Indonesia. Prices in each market along palm oil re-export France-Indonesia supply chain are co-integrated and converge towards long-run equilibrium, but not in the direct export supply chain. This leads to a conclusion that France market preferences in specific and EU market preferences in general need to be considered by Indonesian palm oil decision makers.

  20. Determinants of Supply and Demand for Trade Credit by Micro, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudinê Jordão de Carvalho

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the determinant factors of supply and demand for trade credit by micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs, using data collected in a survey of managers from 481 firms in 32 cities in the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais (Brazil between 2008 and 2010. The multivariate relationship model proposed here is grounded in trade credit, agency and transaction costs theories. This study is based on a technique known as path analysis that uses a system of simple regressions estimated by simultaneous equations. The main results show the following: (i trade credit and short-term bank loans are supplementary (and not substitute sources of funds for MSMEs, which demonstrates that trade credit can be used by financial institutions as an indicator of the creditworthiness of the company; (ii the proportion of credit sales, the days sales outstanding measure and sales growth are positively related to the amount of trade credit demanded, which suggests that trade credit is transferred along the supply chain; and (iii the supply of trade credit is positively related to the importance that management ascribes to both internal capital and bank credit, which illustrates the strategic use of the supply of trade credit to increase sales. These results have important implications for companies' managers, financial institutions and the government agencies responsible for formulating policies that support and promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.