WorldWideScience

Sample records for gas supply demand

  1. World gas supply-demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rushby, I.L.

    1996-01-01

    The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)

  2. Natural gas supply and demand in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comaschi, C.; Di Giulio, E.; Sormani, E.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the dynamics between natural gas supply and demand in Italy. In order to supply Italy with increasing volumes of gas, several new pipelines and re gasification plants are expected in the next future, but their implementation is uncertain. Thus, there exist the possibility of natural gas shortage in the future. On the other hand, if all the expected projects will be implemented, situations of oversupply cannot be excluded. A system dynamics model deepens such as issue [it

  3. Demand and supply in Russian gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milovidov, K.N.

    1997-01-01

    The big volume of gas supplies for current and future energy and natural gas balances in Russia is important to understand the likely future dynamics of demand for gas. The path of future demand in Russia is uncertain and the range of possible scenarios is wide. For creating the new gas consumption structure, more deep diversification and development of the gas distribution systems, large investments and considerable periods of time are necessary. The factors usually studied in detail in the conditions of market economy can not be used here as a basis for strategic planning due to several reasons. (R.P.)

  4. North American natural gas supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goobie, G.

    2006-01-01

    This presentation was given by leading energy analysts Pervin and Gertz, and provided their outlook on the North American natural gas supply and demand as well as transportation and processing options for the Mackenzie Valley project and the Alaska natural gas project. Arctic gas development was discussed in relation to larger North American and world energy markets. The impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development were compared with the potential impacts of the Alaska and Mackenzie Valley pipelines. A review of North American gas supplies was presented. LNG imports to the United States are expected to exceed 8 BCF/D by 2010. In addition, huge growth in the LNG markets is expected in middle eastern countries as well as in Africa. There is currently strong growth in liquefaction capacity in most regions. However, many proposed LNG terminals will not proceed due to opposition on the west coast of North America. It is also expected that natural gas liquids (NGL) delivered to Alberta from the Mackenzie Valley Gas project are expected to be used by the heavy oil industry. Canadian crude supplies are expected to grow to nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2015. The impacts of Alaska and Mackenzie Valley gas projects on western NGL markets and the petrochemicals industry were reviewed. It was concluded that major investments in supply and infrastructure are need in order to develop Arctic gas, as LNG is likely to be the largest source of incremental supply. tabs., figs

  5. Natural gas supply and demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGill, C.B.

    1998-01-01

    The outlook for U.S. natural gas supply and demand in the residential, commercial, industrial/cogeneration, electricity and transportation sectors for 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was presented. A summary of gas well completions from 1990 to 1997 was also provided. The Canadian natural gas resource was estimated at 184 trillion cubic feet. In 1996, Canada produced 5.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, half of which was exported to the U.S. New pipeline projects have been proposed to transport natural gas from eastern offshore areas and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. A table representing U.S. and Canada gas trade from 1990 to 1997 and a map of proposed Canadian and U.S. natural gas pipeline routes were also included. Looking into the future, this speaker predicted continued volatility in natural gas prices. 9 tabs., 9 figs

  6. Natural gas supply, demand and price outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas consumption in the US grew 15.9 percent between 1986 and 1989. Its share of total primary energy use in the US grew from 22.5 percent to 23.8 percent. Despite unusually warm weather and an economic downturn, natural gas use in the first eight months of 1990 fell only modestly from its 1989 pace - while its market share of US total primary energy use has remained stable. The American Gas Association's Total Energy Resource Analysis energy modeling system (A.G.A.-TERA) projects continued growth in natural gas demand and supply. Natural gas is projected to gain a growing share of total US primary use. Natural gas prices are projected to be sufficient to encourage growth in well completions and reserve additions, yet competitive with electricity, fuel oil and other alternative forms of energy

  7. Natural-gas supply-and-demand problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatamian, H.

    1998-01-01

    World natural-gas consumption quadrupled in the 30 years from 1966 to 1996, and natural gas now provides 22% of the total world energy demand. The security of natural-gas supply is paramount and rests with the suppliers and the consumers. This paper gives an overview of world natural-gas supply and demand and examines the main supply problems. The most important nonpredictable variables in natural-gas supply are worldwide gas price and political stability, particularly in regions with high reserves. Other important considerations are the cost of development/processing and the transport of natural gas to market, which can be difficult to maintain if pipelines pass through areas of political instability. Another problem is that many countries lack the infrastructure and capital for effective development of their natural-gas industry. Unlike oil, the cost of transportation of natural gas is very high, and, surprisingly, only approximately 16% of the total world production currently is traded internationally

  8. Balancing gas supply and demand with a sustainable gas supply chain : a study based on field data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim; Hengeveld, Evert Jan

    The possibilities of balancing gas supply and demand with a green gas supply chain were analyzed. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, the produced biogas is upgraded to (Dutch) natural gas standards. The applicability of modeling yearly gas demand data in a

  9. Balancing gas supply and demand with a sustainable gas supply chain : A study based on field data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, J.; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, W. J. T.; Hengeveld, E. J.

    2013-01-01

    The possibilities of balancing gas supply and demand with a green gas supply chain were analyzed. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of cow manure and maize, the produced biogas is upgraded to (Dutch) natural gas standards. The applicability of modeling yearly gas demand data in a

  10. World natural gas supply and demand: Brief pause in production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coccia, G.

    1993-01-01

    With reference to the 1992 CEDIGAZ (Centre International sur le Gas Naturel et tous Hydrocarbures Gazeux) report on world natural gas supply and demand, this paper assesses current market and production trends in this industry. The slight drop in production in 1992, the first which has which has occurred after many consecutive years of steady increases, is ascribed to ownership disputes among the former-USSR republics and major changes in the organizational structure of the former-USSR's natural gas industry. Strong increases in demand are forecasted due to expected strong population growth and increased industrialization to take place in China and India. Price trends in natural gas should remain steady as a result of plentiful supplies of this fuel and coal, a major competitor. The use of relatively clean natural gas is suggested as a practical alternative to energy taxes now being proposed as a means for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

  11. EMF 9 scenarios Canadian natural gas: Potential demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    The basic analytical perspectives of this work are: (1) Canada is a price taker on the US natural gas market; (2) Gas competes with HFO in both markets, and Canada is integrated into the international oil market; (3) Canadian and US income growth rates are consistent with each other, given the major influence of US economic performance on that of the Canadian economy; and (4) Given the price, income and other assumptions, we used the Board's Energy Demand Model to calculate annual demand for natural gas in each price case. We used the Board's models for reserves additions and productive capacity estimation to calculate potential annual supply. The difference between demand and potential supply is the potential exportable volume. The annual productive capacity curve assumes, agnostically, that all potential production is sold yearly

  12. Demand grows in N. America as gas supply sources shift

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1996-01-01

    Growing demand for gas as a power-generation fuel is combining with changing patterns of gas transportation to present North American producers and pipelines with a series of new challenges. Results of a recent Enron study show how natural gas supplies available to US markets continue to shift their center of gravity toward Canadian and western sources. These changes--demand growth paced by electricity generation and supply source relocation--plus extraordinary gas basin price differentials this winter, point to (a) the opportunities for and risks of adding pipeline capacity in the US and Canada, on the one hand, and (b) tough decisions that may need to be made by Gulf of Mexico and Midcontinent area producers, on the other, to compete in an environment of changing economics and infrastructure

  13. U.S. natural gas liquids supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urquhart, W.L.

    1996-01-01

    United States supply and demand situation for natural gas liquids (NGL) was reviewed. The presentation was in four parts: (1) key assumptions for U.S. NGL supply and demand, (2) specific balances for ethane, propane, and butane, (3) some of the key changes now occurring at the customer level, and how these might affect NGLs, and (4) a suggestion of where the future might deviate from projections so severely that projections could be fundamentally wrong. Despite such 'exogenous variables' higher demand projections downstream in the chemical industry were said to be appearing, albeit in scattered fashion. It was estimated that even fractionally higher economic growth could add 3.5 billion pounds to ethylene demand in the USA in the year 2005. 15 figs

  14. Natural gas, NGL's and crude: supply, demand and price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.L.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the major issues to watch in the crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) markets in North America. The presentation began with background information concerning Purvin and Gertz, an employee-owned consulting firm whose employees are chemical engineers, holders of a Master of Business Administration (MBA), or economists. They specialize in providing strategic, commercial, and technical advice to the international energy industry. A closer look at each individual market was provided, looking at demand, supply, price drivers and others. The author concluded that world oil prices continue to be influenced by a war premium. Oil prices support natural gas, as well as the possibility of a supply issue. The gas processing margins have remained strong. The unknown quantities are the weather and economic recovery. figs

  15. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  16. Supply and demand forecasts for natural gas in the WCSB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowfoot, C.; Laustsen, G.

    2001-01-01

    A historical review of supply of natural gas in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) was presented along with export capacity versus demand and the affect of reconnection on Alberta prices. This power point presentation included several graphs and charts which showed that the decline rate per well groupings suggest the pre-1996 wells are declining at about 10 per cent and flattening. The productivity profiles of recent well additions exhibit a very steep initial decline, indicating that a basin decline of 25 per cent is apparent with an expected flattening to a decline of around 20 per cent. This presentation also included a review of WCSB natural gas drilling activity and discussed natural gas well completions by type in Western Canada and British Columbia. Pipeline capacity and throughput for 1999 was also discussed with an illustration of the North American natural gas transportation grid and a graphical illustration of gas exports and Canadian sales. tabs., figs

  17. Supply and demand of natural gas in the world and in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rissik, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    Based on data from the July 1991 published report of the International Gas Union (IGU) committee Supply and Demand an overview is given of the expectations for the natural gas supply, with special attention to Western Europe and the late Soviet Union. Data are presented for natural gas reserves and natural gas supply and demand in Eastern Europe (mainly USSR), Western Europe, North America (USA and Canada), and reserves in the Middle East. The conclusions drawn concern mainly Western Europe. It appears that the natural gas supplies in the world are still very large and sufficient for decades. Western Europe however must rely on foreign reserves more and more, which will have an impact on the natural gas prices. The reserves in the Soviet Union (mainly Siberia and the Arctic area) will be of great importance to the West European countries. 6 figs., 4 ill

  18. Role of technology in future gas supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ban, S.D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents an outlook for natural gas production and consumption in the United States for the next 15 to 20 years. It discusses the impact of the new environmental laws and regulations on gas exploration and development, showing a marked decline in new resource development. The paper goes on to discuss new developments in technology which will be required to increase the efficiency of natural gas-fired systems to meet the decline in production, increased costs, and environmental restraints. The paper breaks these technology issues down into the transportation sector, the residential sector, the commercial sector, and the industry sector. The types of technology and systems needed to meet these new regulatory requirements while maintaining a cost-effective system is discussed under each sectorial analysis

  19. Long term outlook for gas supply and demand 2007-2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-05-01

    Given the economic crisis and the even greater focus of energy policy in recent years on energy efficiency and renewables, earlier expectations in respect of gas demand have to be lowered. Nonetheless, there are still good prospects for gas expanding its position in the EU energy market in the medium to long term. Environmental friendliness and highly efficient technologies in all areas of energy supply give gas a key role in a realistic EU climate policy, the goals of which cannot be achieved solely through increased use of renewables. Its green qualities make gas attractive in direct utilisation in homes and businesses, in centralised power generation, in local CHP plant (including micro-CHP), and - in some member states - in the transport sector too. The current slump in demand is accompanied by strong supply pressure on European procurement markets. Experts do not predict that the present excess supply situation will continue in the long term. It is expected that imports to Europe will rise in order to compensate for the impending fall in domestic European production and to supply additional gas. The procurement challenge cannot be considered in isolation from global developments. The increasing demand for gas worldwide will intensify the competition for global gas reserves on international markets. The European gas industry emphasises the importance of fostering long-term relationships with major suppliers, transit countries and key partners in the EU as well as with multilateral organisations and structures.

  20. The Study on Global Oil and Gas Supply and Demand undertaken by the National Petroleum Council

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slutz, James

    2007-07-01

    The National Petroleum Council (NPC) Study on Global Oil and Gas is one of the most comprehensive studies on global oil and gas supply and demand projections ever undertaken to date. This study comprises approximately 250 experts from industry, government, research institutions, academia, energy ministries from around the world, national oil companies, and non-government organizations. The NPC study team has collected and analyzed global data on supply and demand trends through the year 2030. While other studies have examined the economic, environmental, security and geo-policy implications of the oil and gas supply and demand picture, this study examines all three political priorities simultaneously. The multi-dimensional foundations of the policy recommendations, and the diverse expertise of study group members, results in findings which are truly unique, and separate this study from numerous previous studies on global oil and gas supply and demand. Although key findings and policy recommendations will not be released prior to the study's release in June of 2007, the following paper provides the scope of work and the detailed project plan that will result in an energy outlook that is differentiated from all recent studies.

  1. Current supply/demand outlook and its impact on gas marketing strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maffitt, D.

    1994-01-01

    The current supply/demand outlook for natural gas in Canada is discussed, starting with a review of natural gas supply trends since the deregulation of the market in 1985/86. Market demand trends and expansion of export pipeline capacity are summarized to demonstrate how radically the North American gas marketing industry has changed in the last decade. As of January 1st 1993, Canada ranked eleventh in the world with respect to remaining natural gas reserves (96 Tft 3 ), which represents only 2% of global gas reserves. Canada ranks third in gas production (5 Tft 3 /y), behind the USA and former Soviet Union (19 and 29 Tft 3 /y, respectively). In western Canada, gas production rates have increased 75% since deregulation. Canadian domestic demand has grown 24% since 1985 to the 1993 level of 2.1 Tft 3 /y, while exports to the USA have grown 144% to 2.2 Tft 3 /y. The present environment requires a 'just in time' attitude towards developing new gas reserves and arranging transportation and storage. Long term gas marketing transacations are increasingly deliverability-based, firm delivery commitments which include harsh penalties for nonperformance. 7 figs

  2. Natural gas participation on brazilian demand supply of liquefied petroleum gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freitas Rachid, L.B. de

    1991-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids Production, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) among them, has undergone a continuous growth and technological development until the first half of the eighties. This paper presents the natural gas processing activity development in Brazil, in the last 20 years, and the increasing share of LPG produced from natural gas in the supply of LPG domestic market. Possibilities of achieving greater shares are discussed, based on economics of natural gas processing projects. Worldwide gas processing installed capacity and LPG pricing tendencies, and their influence in the construction of new Natural Gas Processing Units in Brazil, are also discussed. (author)

  3. Natural gas supply and demand projections for the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khin, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    The phenomenon of rapid economic growth in the Asia Pacific has inevitably led the countries of this region to expand and diversify their energy sources in order to satisfy their burgeoning energy demands. Natural gas has become an increasingly marketable energy source in this region benefitting from vast reserves and its advantages as an environmentally clean fuel. As a result of the impact of the two oil shocks of the 1970's on the Asia Pacific economy, the governments in the region set about the development of energy strategies which would make their national economies more resilient to the instabilities of world energy price and supply. The Japanese Gas Industry has estimated that the overall rise in demand for energy in Asia, set at an average rate of 3.7% per annum, will see a corresponding growth in demand for natural gas at 5%. Experts from a number of major oil companies, such as Exxon, expect an annual growth in the Asian natural gas market of 6.0 to 6.3%. These figures are over shadowed by the worldwide demand for natural gas which is expected to gain an 8% increase within the next two decades. Approximately 8.75% of the world's proven natural gas reserves are held in Asia-Pacific region (Table I). Most of the region's natural gas production will provide over 100 years of supply. A review of natural gas supply/demand in the Asia-Pacific region is presented in sub-regions, namely ASIAN, Northeast Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and Oceania

  4. World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, Noureddine

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

  5. World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

  6. An emerging economic view of world natural gas demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorsett, W.H.; Ackerman, G.B.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas is swiftly moving from a locally traded commodity in regional markets to a globally traded commodity. This paper describes a numerical model of international gas trade which evaluates the effects of inter- and intra-regional gas trade on demand, supply and price. Preliminary evidence indicates natural gas prices are 15 to 30% lower in real terms when inter-regional trade occurs and local consumption of natural gas increases relative to fuel oil in the local market. Natural gas developers or marketers that explicitly consider the inter-regional impacts of gas trade will have a greater likelihood of understanding the risks in marginal projects and are more likely to embrace economic projects and eschew noneconomic projects

  7. Supply and demand perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trienekens, Pieter

    1999-01-01

    The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come

  8. European future natural gas demand and supply diversification: key issues for Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Elschner, E.

    1996-01-01

    policy and the activities of the ECE as well as the promoters of the Energy Charter are fostering this process. (3) All European gas industries, in addition, are confronted with the following challenges: to meet the growing gas demand by securing additional gas supplies; to build new pipelines and storage facilities; to diversify gas supplies (eastern and central European countries); to optimize diversification of gas supplies (Western European countries); to interconnect pipeline grids and to strengthen security of supply, as the dominating goal of the whole European gas business

  9. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands up to the year AD 2010 for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for France. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  10. Enron sees major increases in U.S. gas supply, demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.; Stram, B.

    1991-01-01

    Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case

  11. Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilgin, Mert

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system.

  12. Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bilgin, Mert, E-mail: mert.bilgin@bahcesehir.edu.t [Bahcesehir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Political Science and International Relations Department, Ciragan Caddesi Besiktas, 34353 Istanbul (Turkey)

    2009-11-15

    This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system.

  13. Geopolitics of European natural gas demand. Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bilgin, Mert [Bahcesehir University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Political Science and International Relations Department, Ciragan Caddesi Besiktas, 34353 Istanbul (Turkey)

    2009-11-15

    This paper addresses issues of natural gas which raise questions about European energy security. It first focuses on the rising gas demand of the EU27 and elaborates alleged risks of dependence on Russia such as Gazprom's disagreement with Ukraine, which became an international gas crisis in January 2006 and also more recently in January 2009. Incentives and barriers of Europe's further cooperation with selected Caspian (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) and Middle Eastern (Iran, Iraq and Egypt) countries are discussed. Supplies from Caspian are analyzed with a particular focus on Russia's role and the vested interests in the region. Supplies from the Middle East are elaborated with regard to Iran's huge and Iraq's emerging potentials in terms of natural gas reserves and foreign direct investments in the energy sector. The geopolitical analysis leads to a conclusion that the best strategy, and what seems more likely, for the EU is to include at least two countries from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Iraq within its natural gas supply system. (author)

  14. Developments on the European energy market. Part 1. Natural gas supply. Extra import covers growing natural gas demand in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    2000-01-01

    This first part of a series on developments in the European gas market features the growth in gas supply. 35% of the gas demand must be covered from sources outside Europe. For the future additional imports are required from countries such as the Russian Federation, Algeria and Nigeria. Over the next few years the artificial link between ga and oil prices will disappear, bringing the gas price to a structurally lower level. It will be of crucial importance that gas suppliers will not be able to form cartels to keep prices high. All competing projects will curb price increases on the European market, but will definitely result in more freedom of choice for European natural gas consumers

  15. Analysis of GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nesbitt, D.M.; Singh, J.; Pine, G.D.; Kline, D.; Barron, M.; Cheung, P.D.

    1989-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results from the GRI North American Regional Gas Supply-Demand Model using the four scenarios defined for the Energy Modeling Forum Number 9 (EMF-9) described in EMF-9 Working Paper 9.4 (1987). The analysis is designed both to showcase the GRI North American Regional model as well as to infer meaningful results about the North American natural gas system. The focus of the analysis is not R ampersand D per se; R ampersand D analysis using the model is conducted regularly by GRI and described elsewhere. Rather, the objective is to analyze some of the major uncertainties in the North American gas market, uncertainties that potentially affect all players including GRI. In particular, the authors seek to quantify the overall economic environment in which production, transmission, distribution, consumption, and R ampersand D decisions will be made and how different that overall environment might be under alternative assumptions. An attendant objective of this analysis has been to enlist economists from a range of organizations (producers, regulators, GRI, and consultants) to carefully scrutinize the GRI North American Regional model and results. In particular, the coauthors were assembled from diverse organizations to review and evaluate model outputs, applying their particular experience and perspective. The four EMF-9 scenarios upon which this paper is based are described in detail later in this document. Briefly, scenario one represents a world with a surfeit of gas and a relatively high oil price projection; scenario two considers a lower oil price forecast; scenario three assumes a pessimistic outlook for the gas resource base with the same oil prices as scenario one; and scenario four examines a higher level of demand for gas in the North American gas market. An important objective of this analysis is to illustrate the predictive power of multi-scenario comparisons (as contrasted with detailed analysis of any individual scenario)

  16. Supplies should match growing demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmusen, H.J.

    1997-01-01

    The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business

  17. Uranium supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spriggs, M J

    1976-01-01

    Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

  18. Wood supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

    2011-01-01

    At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

  19. Uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)

  20. Safety implications of bridging the energy supply/demand gap in Nigeria through associated natural gas utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akeredolu, Funso A.; Sonibare, Jacob A.

    2007-01-01

    There exists a wide energy supply/demand gap in Nigeria. The local generation of electricity meets only 31% of the demand of 10000 MW. By contrast, only 39.6% of the total installed capacity for electricity generation is achieved, owing to aging infrastructure, etc. The energy demand/supply pattern and infrastructure critically reviewed thus suggested the need to increase the electricity generation capacity. Furthermore, Nigeria flares 77% of her associated natural gas. Apart from the environmental penalties that flaring represents, in monetary terms, over the 110 years' life of Nigeria's gas reserves, a conservative estimate of the cost of the gas so-flared was $330 billion (based on $20/barrel average price of crude). It was safely inferred that the way forward in meeting the country's energy demand should include a strong element of gas utilization. In previous publications by this group, it was established that while domestic cooking could reduce the flared gas by about 5.4%, a cohesive policy on associated gas use for electricity generation could eliminate gas flaring. For domestic utilization of the associated gas, burner design and safety concerns were identified as the key challenges to overcome. The paper reports the effectiveness of odorizers in leakage detection/ prevention by the local consumers. It also discusses the issue of prevention of gas explosions. The previous cases of gas accidents were reviewed. The safety approaches proffered in the paper identified the relevant areas of research for safe delivery and consumption of natural gas in Nigeria. (Author)

  1. North American supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pocino, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The projected supply and demand for natural gas in five major regions of North America for the year 2000 was presented. In most regions, supply is expected to be greater than demand. A summary of how California dealt with an increase in natural gas demand in 1990 was presented. The California strategy included a readjustment of pipeline capacity, storage capacity and transportation. Whereas in the 1980s, when capacity was inadequate, the focus was on competition with alternate fuels, maximized capacity use, primary concern about reliability and only secondary concern about price, in the the 1990s, with excess capacity, the emphasis is on 'gas on gas' competition, efforts to satisfy the customer, primary concern about price, and only marginal concern about reliability. tabs., figs

  2. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1991 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, April 1991. Gas research insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the gas supply and price outlook in the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. Projected U.S. gas production, gas imports, and other sources of gas supply are discussed along with the sensitivity of the outlook to changes in price expectations. The critical uncertainties and issues affecting the gas supply and price outlook are discussed. Appendixes include a comparison of the 1991 and the 1989 projections of gas supply and price trends; and a description of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model

  3. Will the supply meet the demand? The future of the natural gas liquids market in the WCSB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.

    2004-01-01

    Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) price influences were reviewed in this presentation, as well as issues concerning North American propane demand and waterborne imports. A review of U.S. propane stocks was provided as well as regional temperature outlooks for 2004-2005. A cracking feedstock parity forecast was presented, as well as United States gross gas plant margins and propane prices to July 2005. Canadian propane inventories and prices were reviewed. A propane supply and demand forecast to 2020 was presented. Alberta's natural gas supply and intra-Alberta oil sand gas demand growth were discussed. Various market uncertainties include higher levels of activity; the potential of petroleum prices falling due to a reduction of geopolitical risk; the possibility of a U.S. recession; and the growth of Alberta's oil sands industry, with resulting demand for natural gas. It was concluded that the NGL market in North America will continue to be balanced, with waterborne imports becoming more critical. It was suggested that inventories are adequate for the expected winter season. It was also suggested that Canadian NGL supplies are expected to decline, and that prices are expected to soften in the spring of 2005, with falling natural gas and crude oil prices. refs., tabs., figs

  4. Ethane supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamerson, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    Estimates are given for ethane production, chiefly from the Gulf Coast area. Increase in interregional transfers are predicted. Comparisons from 1992 through 1995 are made. The author concludes the following: ethane will be supply limited over the decade of the 90's; values will be over competing feedstocks; minimum practical demands will be close to available supply; regional relationships will reflect pipeline tariffs; purity ethane/EP spreads may narrow with new Mt. Belvieu fractionation capacity; new domestic supplies will back out imports; and Ethane's share of ethylene production may drop over the period

  5. Long-term trends in US gas supply and prices: 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1993-03-01

    A Summary of the gas supply outlook in the 1993 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, adopted as a major input to the planning cycle of the 1994 research and development program, is presented. Significant changes were made in developing the gas supply and price trends for the 1993 edition of the projection. The GRI Hydrocarbon Model was expanded to include the Canadian hydrocarbon resource base. Thus, Canadian and lower-48 gas production and prices were developed on a fully integrated basis in the 1993 projection. The lower-48 hydrocarbon resource estimate was increased, reflecting the results of the recent National Petroleum Council gas study and ongoing GRI resource work. The effects of new technology and practice on drilling costs and exploration efficiency were included for the first time. Appendices include comparisons of supply and price trends

  6. Vancouver Island gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Des Brisay, C.

    2005-01-01

    Terasen Gas is pursuing alternatives for the supply of additional natural gas capacity to Vancouver Island. Its subsidiary, Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island) Inc. (TGVI), is responding to the need for delivery of increased gas supply and, is supporting plans for new gas-fired power generation on Vancouver Island. TGVI's proposal for new natural gas capacity involves a combination of compression and pipeline loops as well as the addition of a storage facility for liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Mt. Hayes to help manage price volatility. This presentation outlined the objectives and components of the resource planning process, including demand forecast scenarios and the preferred infrastructure options. tabs., figs

  7. Engineering economics applied to supply and demand strategy in the gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, G H

    1978-10-01

    A discussion covers some general aspects of long-term strategy in the gas industry, including the requirement of at least six years to develop storage facilities and gas plant; planning to meet all demands except those in the most severe winter occurring once in 50 yr; forecasting six years ahead (the 50 yr winter, the severe one-day demand, regional demands); development of a plant investment program to meet demands; the Cost Polygon method of determining the best plant mix; the mathematical model approach with which to examine every possible combination of plants available in any one year; the example of construction restraints for LNG storage; orientation of this model toward correct balance in peak shaving for say LNG, SNG, and salt cavities; a second, more powerful model for evaluating a least-cost investment program among the longer term plant options including LNG, SNG from oil or coal, and storage in salt cavities, disused coal mines, aquifers, or spent gas fields.

  8. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  9. Intrinsic gas production kinetics of selected intermediates in anaerobic filters for demand-orientated energy supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krümpel, Johannes Hagen; Illi, Lukas; Lemmer, Andreas

    2018-03-01

    As a consequence of a growing share of solar and wind power, recent research on biogas production highlighted a need for demand-orientated, flexible gas production to provide grid services and enable a decentralized stabilization of the electricity infrastructure. Two-staged anaerobic digestion is particularly suitable for shifting the methane production into times of higher demand due to the spatio-temporal separation of hydrolysis and methanogenesis. To provide a basis for predicting gas production in an anaerobic filter, kinetic parameters of gas production have been determined experimentally in this study. A new methodology is used, enabling their determination during continuous operation. An order in methane production rate could be established by comparing the half lives of methane production. The order was beginning with the fastest: acetic acid>ethanol>butyric acid>iso-butyric acid>valeric acid>propionic acid>1,2propanediol>lactic acid. However, the mixture of a natural hydrolysate from the acidification tank appeared to produce methane faster than all single components tested.

  10. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. An occasional publication of Gas Research Institute on topics of current interest. December 1989

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

    1989-12-01

    The report summarizes the 1989 GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which was adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of GRI's 1991 R and D program. Summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends are presented. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1989 projection, and analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration energy supply and demand, a comparison of the 1989 projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  11. LPG world supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Ch.

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of

  12. Proceedings of the CERI North American natural gas conference and Calgary energy show 2005 : walking the tightrope : supply and demand in delicate balance. CD ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This conference addressed issues concerning current and immediate supplies of natural gas in the North American marketplace, with particular reference to supply and demand growth. Alberta's resource potential as well as its position in the North American market were reviewed, along with the decline of onshore resources in the United States. Exogenous future supplies were reviewed, as well as supplies in Arctic Canada and Alaska. Gas hydrates were discussed as a possible fuel for the future. North American demand issues were examined, including the Alaska Gas Pipeline and Mexico's natural gas potential. Pricing issues were also reviewed along with issues concerning natural gas end-users such as wholesalers and offshore manufacturers of petro-chemical feedstocks. The volatility of the natural gas market was discussed with reference to future gas prices. The conference featured 24 presentations, of which 5 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. tabs., figs

  13. Gas in Europe: supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    It is predicted that natural gas consumption in western Europe could rise by more than 55% over the next two decades, from 290bn cubic metres (cm) in 1991 to 450bn cm in 2010. This growth, projected by the consultants, Arthur D Little, reflects the environmental and economic attractions of natural gas, particularly in the power generation sector. Another consultant, Poten and Partners, predicts an even greater rise in gas consumption, from 301bn cm in 1992 to 482 bn cm in 2010. However, while demand is forecast to increase in all major European gas markets, indigenous production within Europe is expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future, with indigenous supplies projected to peak at approximately 350bn cubic metres per year (cm/y) in the late 1990s. This raises the prospect of significant supply constraints emerging in Europe. (author)

  14. View of the LP gas supply/demand in Asia and a survey of the Middle East trend; Asia no LP gas jukyu tenbo to Chuto doko chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-09-01

    A study was made on the LP gas supply/demand in Asia including an outlook for 2000. Eleven countries in Asia including NIES countries, ASEAN countries, China and India have been continuing their rapid growth of economy and have rapidly been increasing their energy consumption. There, LP gas spreads as a home use fuel, and countries excluding some LP gas producing countries depend considerably upon the import from the Middle East. The LP gas consumption quantity is steadily increasing in China and India having huge population, etc., and dependence of LP gas is increasing upon LP gas producing countries of the Middle East. Nevertheless, in the Middle East, the domestic consumption of LP gas, mostly butane, is increasing. Namely, butane is used as raw material of MTBE, and LP gas as that of petroleum chemicals. The Middle East has a lot of plant projects of a sizable size in the future, which predicts that LP gas export from LP gas producing countries of the Middle East is decreasing. 2 refs., 62 figs., 57 tabs.

  15. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Babusiaux, D

    2004-07-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  16. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2006-07-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  17. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2006-01-01

    The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)

  18. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.

    2004-01-01

    Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)

  19. Oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rech, O.

    2004-01-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  20. Oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rech, O

    2004-07-01

    World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

  1. Oil and gas. Gas supply under pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.

    2008-01-01

    The latest review of natural gas markets from the International Energy Agency (IEA) paints a picture of growing demand in the face of rising prices, a strengthening link between gas and electricity markets, and a globalising influence from increasingly flexible LNG supplies. But there are growing signs that security of supply is under threat from underinvestment, delays and cost escalation

  2. Demand-type gas supply system for rocket borne thin-window proportional counters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acton, L. W.; Caravalho, R.; Catura, R. C.; Joki, E. G.

    1977-01-01

    A simple closed loop control system has been developed to maintain the gas pressure in thin-window proportional counters during rocket flights. This system permits convenient external control of detector pressure and system flushing rate. The control system is activated at launch with the sealing of a reference volume at the existing system pressure. Inflight control to plus or minus 2 torr at a working pressure of 760 torr has been achieved on six rocket flights.

  3. Natural gas supply - a producer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papa, M.G.

    1994-01-01

    The supply of natural gas from the producers standpoint is discussed. The following factors in the marketing demand for natural gas are considered to be important: gas demand is growing, U.S. gas resource base is large, chronic gas bubble has shrunk, and North American supply is more resilient than expected

  4. Long-term trends in U.S. gas transportation: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, June 1992. Gas Research Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lihn, M.L.; Woods, T.J.

    1992-06-01

    The paper summarizes the trends in lower-48 gas transportation in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand to 2010, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices

  5. Long-term trends in U.S. gas supply and prices: 1992 edition of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, T.J.

    1991-12-01

    The paper summarizes the gas supply outlook in the 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, which has been adopted as a major input to the planning cycle leading to the development of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) 1993 research and development program. The 1992 projection presents the GRI planning outlook for the economic and the energy supply and demand situation to the year 2010. It was prepared independently by GRI using publicly available data and a framework of commercially available models that GRI has developed over several years. It is not derived from the views of GRI member companies. The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. gas industry in which increased gas supply can be obtained at competitive prices. The gas prices in the 1992 projection support growth in all major U.S. gas supply sources: lower-48, Alaska, Canada, Mexico, and LNG. By about 2005, U.S. gas supply is at its highest level ever. By 2010, U.S. gas supply has grown to almost 25 quads. U.S. gas production increases 2.6 quads between 1990 and 2010; imports increase 2.2 quads. Although imports do not increase as much as U.S. gas production, they account for an increased share of U.S. gas supply. The import share grows from 7 percent to 12 percent over the projection period. Supplemental gas sources provide about 1 percent of U.S. gas supply

  6. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  7. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  8. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  9. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  10. Balancing supply and demand resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models

  11. EIA projections of coal supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, D.E.

    1989-01-01

    Contents of this report include: EIA projections of coal supply and demand which covers forecasted coal supply and transportation, forecasted coal demand by consuming sector, and forecasted coal demand by the electric utility sector; and policy discussion

  12. Future butanes supply/demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitley, S.C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper graphically depicts, through in-depth supply/demand analysis, how environmental regulations can be both bad and good for an industry. In the case of n-butane, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) summertime gasoline volatility regulations are a culprit - threatening to ultimately destroy refinery demand for the product as a gasoline blendstock. Waiting in the wings are environmental regulations that should eventually prove to be n-butane's savior. The regulations referred to here are the Clean Air Act (CAA) of 1990's mandate for motor fuel oxygenates. The negative impact of gasoline volatility regulations on U.S. n-butane demand and the positive impact that should come from the use of n-butane as a MTBE precursor are covered. Many variables exist which make studying the effects of these environmental regulations very difficult. Over the past three years RPC Group has conducted numerous studies on n-butane supply/demand, as impacted by both EPA gasoline volatility and fuel oxygenate regulations

  13. Oil prices: demand and supply. Lesson plan

    OpenAIRE

    anonymous

    2005-01-01

    Upon completion of this lesson, students will be able to list the determinants of demand and supply, recognize which factors will cause demand curves or supply curves to shift, determine equilibrium using a demand/supply graph, and show the effects on price and quantity when equilibrium changes.

  14. Canadian gas supply : an update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rochefort, T.

    1998-01-01

    An overview of the daily production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) from 1986 to 1997 was presented. This presentation also outlined Canadian production trends, Canadian reserves and resources, and supply challenges. Ultimate conventional marketable gas from the WCSB, the Scotian Shelf, the Beaufort Sea and Canada's Arctic region was estimated at 591 TCF. Issues regarding supply and demand of natural gas such as the impact of electricity restructuring on pricing, generation fuel mix, the capacity of the U.S. market to absorb Canadian heavy oil production, and the influence of the rate of technological advances on supply and demand were outlined. The overall conclusion confirmed the health and competitiveness of the Canadian upstream sector and expressed confidence that the WCSB can support rising levels of production to meet the expected continued market growth. tabs., figs

  15. Natural gas demand prospects in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Young-Jin [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-06-01

    Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs.

  16. Natural gas demand prospects in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young-Jin Kwon

    1997-01-01

    Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs

  17. World uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    The role of nuclear energy is under increasing scrutiny and uncertainty. None the less, there will be an increasing need for expansion of uranium supply to fuel committed reactors. Longer-term demand projections are very uncertain. Improved knowledge of the extent of world resources and their availability and economics is needed to support planning for reactor development, especially for breeder reactors, and for fuel-cycle development, especially enrichment, and reprocessing and recycle of uranium and plutonium. Efforts to date to estimate world uranium resources have been very useful but have largely reflected the state of available knowledge for the lower cost resources in regions that have received considerable exploration efforts. The IUREP evaluation of world resources provides an initial speculative estimate of world resources, including areas not previously appraised. Projections of long-range supply from the estimated resources suggest that the high-growth nuclear cases using once-through cycle may not be supportable for very long. However, additional effort is needed to appraise and report more completely and consistently on world resources, the production levels attainable from these resources, and the economic and price characteristics of such production. (author)

  18. Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand

    OpenAIRE

    Woon Gyu Choi; Seonghwan Oh

    2000-01-01

    This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is subs...

  19. Energy supply and demand in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, E. D.

    1978-01-01

    The author expresses his views on future energy demand on the west coast of the United States and how that energy demand translates into demand for major fuels. He identifies the major uncertainties in determining what future demands may be. The major supply options that are available to meet projected demands and the policy implications that flow from these options are discussed.

  20. Lead -- supply/demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schnull, T.

    1999-01-01

    As Japan goes--so goes the world. That was the title of a recent lead article in The Economist that soberly discussed the potential of much more severe global economic problems occurring, if rapid and coordinated efforts were not made to stabilize the economic situation in Asia in general, and in Japan in particular. During the first 6 months of last year, commodity markets reacted violently to the spreading economic problems in Asia. More recent currency and financial problems in Russia have exacerbated an already unpleasant situation. One commodity after another--including oil, many of the agricultural commodities, and each of the base metals--have dropped sharply in price. Many are now trading at multiyear lows. Until there is an overall improvement in the outlook for these regions, sentiment will likely continue to be negative, and metals prices will remain under pressure. That being said, lead has maintained its value better than many other commodities during these difficult times, finding support in relatively strong fundamentals. The author takes a closer look at those supply and demand fundamentals, beginning with consumption

  1. The balance of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darmayan, P.

    1981-01-01

    The Supply and Demand Committee of the Uranium Institute was established to monitor continuously information and developments bearing on the uranium market and to publish from time to time reports giving its views on the supply and demand outlook. The last Uranium Institute supply and demand report was compiled at the beginning of 1979. Its main conclusions were that from 1979 to 1990 the flexibilities of the market were such as to offer adequate scope to producers and consumers of uranium to ensure a balance between supply and demand. Is that conclusion still valid one and a half years later. Some of the Supply and Demand Committee's more recent estimates are reported under the headings: reactor orders and cancellations; revised Institute forecasts of nuclear capacity; uranium supply; main implications of the new forecasts. (U.K.)

  2. Northern entanglement : Arctic gas pipeline plans caught in web of competing interests, but dire supply-demand forecasts indicate line will be built

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stonehouse, D.

    2005-01-01

    This article discussed land access and regulatory issues surrounding decisions to stop field work of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline in the spring of 2005. Although current supply and demand balances in natural gas markets argue that the pipeline will be beneficial, Imperial Oil and its partners have halted activities such as geotechnical data-gathering programs and preparatory work on contracting construction. The project's future depends on the successful resolution of First Nations land claims, governmental disputes and various activist groups protesting the pipeline's construction. Imperial Oil has suggested that the pipeline presents a significant opportunity for the people of the North to reduce their reliance on government and will create jobs and business opportunities for Aboriginal people. In the aftermath of work stoppage, Alberta's former Energy Minister stated that imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Alaska gas from the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline Project may arrive on the market in advance of the Mackenzie Valley project, which would affect the project's financial future. It was noted that access and benefits agreements with First Nations stakeholders have yet to be reached. Lawsuits involving the Deh Cho First Nations were examined. It was also suggested that Imperial Oil has not included information on the Alberta portion of the project in its environmental impact assessment. It was concluded that if the Mackenzie Delta line isn't in service by 2010, North American consumers can expect to spend an extra $190 billion on gas from 2011 to 2020. 3 figs

  3. North American pipelines supply/demand update: challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopal, J.

    2002-01-01

    The author began the presentation by providing a little definition of forecasting supply, demand and price as applied to the natural gas industry, indicating that it is both science and art. An integrated grid in North America, the natural gas sector modeling relates to supply basins, demand centers and pipes includes the United States, Canada and Mexico. Some of the considerations are: huge demand from proposed power generation, conservation, and drilling impacts, as well as pipeline capacity. A chart displaying the North American model was explained. The author discussed the technically recoverable natural gas resources as well as the estimates in both Canada and the United States. The next section deals with exploration and development of frontier resources and power plant licensing, with emphasis on power plants in California. The generation assumptions for the Western Systems Coordinating Council from the Energy Commission are reviewed, placing the numbers in their proper perspective. California natural gas supply by source is examined, followed by regional natural gas spot price. The wellhead natural gas prices for North America and for the Lower 48 states are presented. The author indicates that additional pipeline capacity is required to meet the growing demand. Several factors have to be considered: the number of power plants, when and where; pipeline capacity (how much); regulations; slack capacity; cost of slack capacity, and supply. The concluding remarks touched upon the availability of gas resources, the environmental issues that affect demand, hub services that enhance service flexibility and reliability, and pipeline capacity and storage. 2 tabs., 15 figs

  4. Competition with supply and demand functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolle, F.

    2001-01-01

    If economic agents have to determine in advance their supply or demand in reaction to different market prices we may assume that their strategic instruments are supply or demand functions. The best examples for such markets are the spot markets for electricity in England and Wales, in Chile, in New Zealand, in Scandinavia and perhaps elsewhere. A further example is computerized trading in stock markets, financial markets, or commodity exchanges. The functional form of equilibria is explicitly determined in this paper. Under a certain condition, equilibria exist for every finite spread of (stochastic) autonomous demand, i.e. demand from small, non-strategically acting consumers. Contrary to competition with supply functions alone, however, there is no tendency for market prices to converge to 0 if the spread of autonomous demand increases infinitely. Lower bounds of market prices can be computed instead

  5. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  6. The importance of flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market - The Brazilian case; A importancia da flexibilidade na oferta e na demanda de gas natural - o caso do mercado brasileiro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Jose Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti

    2008-05-15

    The objective of this dissertation is to identify and discuss the main tools in implementing flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market, as well as highlight those which are the most appropriate for the Brazilian market. Flexibility, in this context, means the ability to guarantee a balance of supply versus demand without deficits, considering, mainly, the seasonal variations (winter-summer). From there, the study analyzes these flexibility tools in detail. Next, it discusses which of these flexibility tools are currently being used in more mature foreign markets and which tools could be feasibly applied to the Brazilian market. This dissertation also addresses how the natural gas thermoelectric market in Brazil shows a wide range of seasonality due to this segment's nature of complementing the Brazilian hydroelectric complex. This occurs because the capacity to generate hydroelectricity depends on rainfall for supplying reservoirs. Because of this interdependence, it examines how each the natural gas industry and the power industry operate, and their convergence. The flexibility tools which are already implemented here in Brazil are then presented. Finally, additional relevant new concepts and information are discussed to support the conclusions and final comments about the flexibility tools evolution and new applications. (author)

  7. The importance of flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market - The Brazilian case; A importancia da flexibilidade na oferta e na demanda de gas natural - o caso do mercado brasileiro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Jose Ricardo Uchoa Cavalcanti

    2008-05-15

    The objective of this dissertation is to identify and discuss the main tools in implementing flexibility in supply and demand in the natural gas market, as well as highlight those which are the most appropriate for the Brazilian market. Flexibility, in this context, means the ability to guarantee a balance of supply versus demand without deficits, considering, mainly, the seasonal variations (winter-summer). From there, the study analyzes these flexibility tools in detail. Next, it discusses which of these flexibility tools are currently being used in more mature foreign markets and which tools could be feasibly applied to the Brazilian market. This dissertation also addresses how the natural gas thermoelectric market in Brazil shows a wide range of seasonality due to this segment's nature of complementing the Brazilian hydroelectric complex. This occurs because the capacity to generate hydroelectricity depends on rainfall for supplying reservoirs. Because of this interdependence, it examines how each the natural gas industry and the power industry operate, and their convergence. The flexibility tools which are already implemented here in Brazil are then presented. Finally, additional relevant new concepts and information are discussed to support the conclusions and final comments about the flexibility tools evolution and new applications. (author)

  8. Modelling Commodity Demands and Labour Supply with m-Demands

    OpenAIRE

    Browning, Martin

    1999-01-01

    In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...

  9. Global sustainable timber supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince

    2010-01-01

    Industrial timber use has provided timber revenue that has helped make timber supply and demand more sustainable in the leading timber producing regions of the world. Sustainable development implies not consuming more resources today than we can replace tomorrow, but sustainable forest management implies more than merely a non-declining supply of timber. Forests as a...

  10. Problems of peak demands in the gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haeberlin, A

    1979-01-01

    After a brief explanation of the demands made on gas supply enterprises, a discussion of the possibilities of optimization for meeting the demand follows. There are in principle two possibilities for this: the interruption of deliveries which should be made legal in a contract and the use of peak supply plants, especially in the form of gas storages. The procedure is chosen according to the special situation of each gas supply enterprise.

  11. Teaching Aggregate Demand and Supply Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Graeme

    2010-01-01

    The author analyzes the inflation-targeting model that underlies recent textbook expositions of the aggregate demand-aggregate supply approach used in introductory courses in macroeconomics. He shows how numerical simulations of a model with inflation inertia can be used as a tool to help students understand adjustments in response to demand and…

  12. Centrifuges help match supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crossley, P.S.

    1980-01-01

    Since the early 1970's the enrichment market situation has changed dramatically. Falling demands and increasing production capacity has resulted in over-capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium. New trends in the industry are considered by analysing the following issues: supply and demand; technical development; build-up plans; contracting policies; enrichment economics; and nuclear safeguards. (U.K.)

  13. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanamura, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  14. A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

    2009-09-15

    This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

  15. Energy supply and demand in Canada and export demand for Canadian energy, 1966--1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1969-01-01

    This report presents the results of a National Energy Board staff study of energy supply and demand in Canada to 1990. The study covers all forms of energy in Canada, and probable sources of supply for serving both indigenous and export demand for Canadian energy. Energy demand by market sector (residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation) is discussed in Chapters III, IV and V, respectively. Chapters VI, VII, VIII, and IX deal with supply prospects for Canadian petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity serving indigenous and export markets. A summary of the report is contained in Chapter II. Appendix A reviews general assumptions including those relating to population and household growth. Appendix B summarizes the methodology used for estimating residential energy demand, automobile transportation energy demand, and electricity supply. Appendix C includes a number of tables which provide detailed information. A list of definitions and abbreviations follows the Table of Contents.

  16. Optimal transport on supply-demand networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Han; Wang, Bing-Hong; Zhao, Li-Chao; Zhou, Changsong; Zhou, Tao

    2010-06-01

    In the literature, transport networks are usually treated as homogeneous networks, that is, every node has the same function, simultaneously providing and requiring resources. However, some real networks, such as power grids and supply chain networks, show a far different scenario in which nodes are classified into two categories: supply nodes provide some kinds of services, while demand nodes require them. In this paper, we propose a general transport model for these supply-demand networks, associated with a criterion to quantify their transport capacities. In a supply-demand network with heterogeneous degree distribution, its transport capacity strongly depends on the locations of supply nodes. We therefore design a simulated annealing algorithm to find the near optimal configuration of supply nodes, which remarkably enhances the transport capacity compared with a random configuration and outperforms the degree target algorithm, the betweenness target algorithm, and the greedy method. This work provides a start point for systematically analyzing and optimizing transport dynamics on supply-demand networks.

  17. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  18. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  19. Middle east gas: supply source of Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vivies, P. de

    1995-01-01

    The evolution of gas demand, the decreasing of reserves leads to the question of European future needs satisfaction. The european market can call on the russian production or middle east production. Iran has the most important reserves but the needs of the population can limit the gas supply. Yemen and Oman which have less important reserves but also less important needs to satisfy can be a serious alternative; Abu dhabi reserves are destined to asia market. The qatar has the most important gas offshore field in the world. The LNG (liquefied natural gas) seems to have a better position than gas pipeline to dispatch gas towards Europe

  20. Vaccine supply, demand, and policy: a primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzumdar, Jagannath M; Cline, Richard R

    2009-01-01

    To provide an overview of supply and demand issues in the vaccine industry and the policy options that have been implemented to resolve these issues. Medline, Policy File, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts were searched to locate academic journal articles. Other sources reviewed included texts on the topics of vaccine history and policy, government agency reports, and reports from independent think tanks. Keywords included vaccines, immunizations, supply, demand, and policy. Search criteria were limited to English language and human studies. Articles pertaining to vaccine demand, supply, and public policy were selected and reviewed for inclusion. By the authors. Vaccines are biologic medications, therefore making their development and production more difficult and costly compared with "small-molecule" drugs. Research and development costs for vaccines can exceed $800 million, and development may require 10 years or more. Strict manufacturing regulations and facility upgrades add to these costs. Policy options to increase and stabilize the supply of vaccines include those aimed at increasing supply, such as government subsidies for basic vaccine research, liability protection for manufacturers, and fast-track approval for new vaccines. Options to increase vaccine demand include advance purchase commitments, government stockpiles, and government financing for select populations. High development costs and multiple barriers to entry have led to a decline in the number of vaccine manufacturers. Although a number of vaccine policies have met with mixed success in increasing the supply of and demand for vaccines, a variety of concerns remain, including developing vaccines for complex pathogens and increasing immunization rates with available vaccines. New policy innovations such as advance market commitments and Medicare Part D vaccine coverage have been implemented and may aid in resolving some of the problems in the vaccine industry.

  1. Outlook for Noth American natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuuskraa, V.A.

    1995-01-01

    The underlying resource base for North America natural gas is large, sufficient for nearly 100 years of current consumption. As such, the issues are not the size of the resource, but how to convert this resource into economically competitive supply. The key questions are: Will the cost (price) of natural gas remain competitive? What is the status of near-term deliverability? Will there be enough supply to meet growing demand? These economic and market issues frame the outlook for gas supplies in North America. Most importantly, they will determine how natural gas emerges from its competition for markets with other fuels and electricity. The paper addresses these questions by examining: (1) the underlying nature of the natural gas resource base; (2) the current status and trends in deliverability; and, (3) the potential of new technologies for producing gas more cost-effectively. (author)

  2. Demand powers ahead [Gas in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, N.

    1994-01-01

    Natural gas demand in Europe has been growing steadily for many years and is likely to go on increasing in the domestic sector, the industrial sector and in power generation. In this review a number of features of the market supply situation are reported. Potential new markets for Norwegian gas in eastern and central Europe are being evaluated. Other exporting countries are also keen to obtain a greater share in the expanding European market. Among them are Russia, Algeria and Nigeria, but political uncertainties in each of these countries are a cause for concern. Algeria has new pipelines to supply Italy, Spain and Portugal. The Russian company, Gazprom, has launched the construction of a pipeline to link new gas fields in northern Siberia with western Europe and has set up contracts with German companies which are facilitating the sale of Russian gas in Europe. Supply potential also exists in some of the other countries of the former Soviet Union, such as Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. A group of leading European gas utilities are exploring the feasibility of imports from Iran either via a pipeline link or as liquefied natural gas. The United Kingdom hopes to export North Sea gas into Europe through the proposed Interconnector pipeline from Bacton to Zeebrugge, in th long-term, though, the pipeline may be used for imports into the UK. A controversial proposal to introduce third-party access to European pipelines could alter the whole structure of the market. (UK)

  3. Forecasting world natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fattah, S. M.; Startzman, R. A.

    2000-01-01

    Using the multi-cyclic Hubert approach, a 53 country-specific gas supply model was developed which enables production forecasts for virtually all of the world's gas. Supply models for some organizations such as OPEC, non-OPEC and OECD were also developed and analyzed. Results of the modeling study indicate that the world's supply of natural gas will peak in 2014, followed by an annual decline at the rate of one per cent per year. North American gas production is reported to be currently at its peak with 29 Tcf/yr; Western Europe will reach its peak supply in 2002 with 12 Tcf. According to this forecast the main sources of natural gas supply in the future will be the countries of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Between them, they possess about 62 per cent of the world's ultimate recoverable natural gas (4,880 Tcf). It should be noted that these estimates do not include unconventional gas resulting from tight gas reservoirs, coalbed methane, gas shales and gas hydrates. These unconventional sources will undoubtedly play an important role in the gas supply in countries such as the United States and Canada. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 18 figs

  4. Dietetics supply and demand: 2010-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooker, Roderick S; Williams, James H; Papneja, Jesleen; Sen, Namrata; Hogan, Paul

    2012-03-01

    The Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, in conjunction with the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR), invited The Lewin Group to undertake an analysis of the dietetics workforce. The purpose of the workforce study was to develop a model that can project the supply and demand for both registered dietitians (RDs) and dietetic technicians, registered (DTRs) (collectively referred to as CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners) as the result of various key drivers of change. The research team was asked to quantify key market factors where possible and to project likely paths for the evolution of workforce supply and demand, as well as to assess the implications of the findings. This article drew on the survey research conducted by Readex Research and futurist organizations such as Signature i and Trend Spot Consulting. Furthermore, members of the Dietetics Workforce Demand Task Force were a source of institutional and clinical information relevant to the credentialed dietetics workforce--including their opinions and judgment of the current state of the health care market for dietetic services, its future state, and factors affecting it, which were useful and were integrated with the objective sources of data. The model is flexible and accommodates the variation in how RDs and DTRs function in diverse practice areas. For purposes of this study and model, the dietetics workforce is composed of RDs and DTRs. This report presents the results of this workforce study and the methodology used to calculate the projected dietetics workforce supply and demand. The projections are based on historical trends and estimated future changes. Key findings of the study included the following: • The average age of all CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners in baseline supply (2010) is 44 years; approximately 96% are women. • Approximately 55% of CDR-credentialed dietetics practitioners work in clinical dietetics. • The annual growth rate of supply of CDR

  5. EUROGAS long-term outlook on natural gas demand and supply up to 2020. The approach of the West European gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roze, J.

    1997-01-01

    Eurogas is the European Union of the Natural Gas Industry. Since 1994, it has been publishing a booklet presenting the main figures describing natural gas industry in Europe with a view to supporting its positions in the debates taking place with European and international institutions. This paper is presenting the results of the Eurogas outlook updated in 1996, it is based on input from the national members of Eurogas. (au)

  6. A Causal Relationship between Quality Management Practices, Supply-Chain Practices, Demand-Chain Practices, and Company Performance: Evidence from the Indonesia’s Oil and Gas Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Ciptono, Wakhid Slamet

    2015-01-01

    Studi ini mengembangkan suatu hubungan kausal antara lima konstruk penelitian QualityManagement Practices (QMP), Supply-Chain Practices (SCP), Demand-Chain Practices (DCP), CompanyPerformance (Value-Gain Performance atau VGP dan Monetary-Gain Performance atau MGP) denganmenggunakan Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)—studi kasus pada industri migas di Indonesia. Modelkonseptual penelitian ini merupakan kolaborasi dari berbagai penelitian sebelumnya yang terkait denganenam dimensi praktik manaj...

  7. Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

    2017-03-01

    A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Supply and demand law under limited information

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2005-01-01

    We present a model for the supply-demand law with quality and limited information capability. We postulate that imperfect information permeates in almost all economic transactions to varying degrees. Through a simple model we outline a research agenda that re-examines many standard issues in economics. Our analysis shows that whereas imperfect information can be improved, it leads to new uncertainties so that the perfect information limit can never be reached. As a corollary neoclassical perf...

  9. Role of stranded gas in increasing global gas supplies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Freeman, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    This report synthesizes the findings of three regional studies in order to evaluate, at the global scale, the contribution that stranded gas resources can make to global natural gas supplies. Stranded gas, as defined for this study, is natural gas in discovered conventional gas and oil fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. The regional studies evaluated the cost of bringing the large volumes of undeveloped gas in stranded gas fields to selected markets. In particular, stranded gas fields of selected Atlantic Basin countries, north Africa, Russia, and central Asia are screened to determine whether the volumes are sufficient to meet Europe’s increasing demand for gas imports. Stranded gas fields in Russia, central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia are also screened to estimate development, production, and transport costs and corresponding gas volumes that could be supplied to Asian markets in China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The data and cost analysis presented here suggest that for the European market and the markets examined in Asia, the development of stranded gas provides a way to meet projected gas import demands for the 2020-to-2040 period. Although this is a reconnaissance-type appraisal, it is based on volumes of gas that are associated with individual identified fields. Individual field data were carefully examined. Some fields were not evaluated because current technology was insufficient or it appeared the gas was likely to be held off the export market. Most of the evaluated stranded gas can be produced and delivered to markets at costs comparable to historical prices. Moreover, the associated volumes of gas are sufficient to provide an interim supply while additional technologies are developed to unlock gas diffused in shale and hydrates or while countries transition to making a greater use of renewable energy sources.

  10. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  11. North American demand and supply dynamics - implications for pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, R.

    1998-01-01

    Key issues regarding the natural gas industry and the long-term outlook for North American supply and demand for natural gas were discussed. The North American market was characterized as not a mature market, meaning that demand will continue to increase in the coming years. It was confidently predicted that supplies will be available for development at reasonable costs. However, real prices will slowly increase over time. Short-term fundamentals, expectations and pricing outlook were also discussed. The influence of upstream activity levels, the health of the economy, weather and storage were all identified as factors that will impact on short-term price expectations. According to this author a minor increase in price may be expected during the winter of 1998/1999. tabs., figs

  12. Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-12-01

    Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the US petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to US refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of a US energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection, which was completed in August 1991, assumed that, in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East, the fundamentals of the oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing rapidity

  13. Gas supply and Yorkshire Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-04-01

    Yorkshire Electricity, among other independent suppliers of gas, now competes for a share of the United Kingdom gas market, previously monopolised by British Gas. The experience of this successful electric utility company, expanding into the industrial and domestic gas supply market is described in the article. The company`s involvement stems partly from the fact that significant volumes of gas are landed at three terminals within its franchise area. The company will also seek to use subsidaries to generate electric power from gas turbine power plants and explore the possibilities of developing combined heat and power (CHP) plants where appropriate. (UK)

  14. Gas supply device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Tokihiro.

    1986-01-01

    Purpose: When injecting gas during plasma discharge, to prevent erronous operation of the piezoelectric valves due to vibrations and to inject gas into the vacuum vessel by accurately controlling gas flow. Constitution: The piezoelectric valve designed to control the flow of gas when charging vacuum vessels is installed between the vacuum vessel and the gas cylinder and a pulse voltage generator to control the valve (open/close) and the reverse voltage generator to apply a reverse current to the valve element are also provided. When a voltage is applied to the piezoelectric element, the piezoelectric element bends. However, when the polarity is changed, the direction of the bend is also reversed. The seat portion is pressed in proportion to the degree of bending. When gas is injected while plasma is being discharged, the gap created, due to vibrations, between the piezoelectric element and the sealing material is prevented by the application of a reverse current. This allows precise control of the gas injection volume as well as the injection interval. This assures maintenance of precise test conditions when testing thermonuclear devices. (Horiuchi, T.)

  15. Uranium resources and supply - demand to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vance, R.

    2010-01-01

    Recent fluctuations in the market price for uranium have resulted in more activity in this sector over the past few years than in the preceding 20 years. Amidst this background, uranium demand is increasing. Construction of nuclear reactors is proceeding in some countries, ambitious expansion plans have been announced in others and the development of nuclear power programs to meet electricity demand and minimize greenhouse emissions in a cost effective manner is under consideration in many others. This paper reviews projections of nuclear growth and uranium demand and assesses the challenges faced by the uranium mining sector in meeting rising demand. Since the mid-1960 s, an international expert committee (the 'Uranium Group') formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has published biennially comprehensive updates on global uranium resources, production and demand (the 'Red Book'). The most recent in this series, based on 2007 data and published in June 2008, includes a supply/demand projection to 2030. However, much has changed since the data were collected for this projection and an assessment of these changes and their impact on uranium production is included in this presentation. It is concluded that world identified uranium resources (5.45 million t U recoverable at costs up to US$130/kg U, or US$50/lb U 3 O 8 ) are adequate to meet projected future high case nuclear power requirements. However, recent financial market turmoil and lower uranium prices, the opaque nature of the uranium market itself, increased regulatory requirements, a scarcity of the required specialized labour and the fluctuating costs of raw materials makes the process of turning uranium resources in the ground into yellowcake in the can increasingly more challenging, particularly for new entrants. Considerable investment and expertise will be required to bring about the substantial increase in mine production required to meet future demand

  16. Electricity demand and supply to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertel, E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper will attempt to make projections of energy and electricity demand, and the possible share of nuclear generation in global supply, up to 2020. This horizon has been chosen because the long lead times prevailing in the energy sector imply long-term planning, even though the degree of uncertainty is quite large when looking several decades ahead. Electricity demand, as well as primary energy consumption, depends on many technical and economic factors, obviously including demography. Using statistical data for past decades, it is possible to quantify by econometric methods and the links between energy and electricity consumption and economic parameters. The models defined may then be used to make projections of future electricity consumption. The share of nuclear electricity in primary energy supply can be estimated by taking into account the various constraints and lead times limiting the deployment of nuclear generating capacity, and the shares of other energy sources in electricity generation in each country or region. It should be emphasized that the scenarios presented below are illustrative, and are not forecasts of future energy and electricity demand. Because of the method adopted and the assumptions made, the scenarios reflect a 'conventional wisdom'. However, they do incorporate concerns for environmental protection and improvements regarding energy efficiency. (author)

  17. Canadian gas supply: going up? or down?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woronuk, R. H.

    1999-01-01

    With regard to Canada's gas reserves there are clear indications that the gas market is moving from a supply/demand balance controlled by demand to one that is controlled by supply. There is evidence of a recognition that the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) , the source of most of Canada's gas supply is a mature basin, with over half of its reserves already discovered, that consumption has exceeded reserve additions for all but one of the last sixteen years, and that under these conditions consumption cannot grow, or even be maintained indefinitely. The central argument advanced in this paper is that the era of ever increasing production from the WCSB is nearing its end and that a more aggressive approach to exploration and development in the WCSB, especially in the deeper and more environmentally sensitive areas, together with the exploitation of conventional gas in frontier areas and unconventional resources will be necessary to prevent projected declines in supply. Identification of new geological plays, exploration for and connection of reserves from frontier regions and the development of technologies for enhanced recoveries will involve increasingly long lead times, therefore, initiatives to address forthcoming supply issues must begin immediately. 4 refs., 17 figs

  18. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand to 2010, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The paper summarizes the 1993 edition of the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand, and presents the implications of the projection that are important for GRI research and development planning and the gas industry. The survey of supply and demand considerations is followed by a breakdown of energy demand by type of fuel, by consumption sector, and by service application. Gas supply and prices are analyzed in terms of two scenarios: a constrained energy demand scenario, and an optimistic scenario. Tables and charts accompany the summary

  19. Storage is absolutely necessary to balance supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2009-01-01

    Before liberalization, gas storage was built to balance supply and demand (on a seasonal basis), as well as for broader security of supply concerns. With liberalization, companies started to use storage in a more flexible way as they were no longer obliged to prioritize security of supply. The decline in swing production in the North Sea should have triggered an increase in storage capacity. However, in the UK, investment in storage was neglected until too late. The major points of interest in continental Europe are as follows: due to geological constraints, Latvia is the only Baltic state to have underground storage; storage capacity represents 49% of annual Austria demand; Germany has the biggest European storage facility; in Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Portugal, just one company in each country has all the storage capacity; in Romania, Romgaz has 92% of storage capacity; in the Czech Republic, RWE owns 75% of the storage; in Slovakia, GDF SUEZ and E.ON have most of the capacity; and storage in Ukraine represents a huge opportunity with a capacity of 34 bcm (billion cubic meters). In oil, strategic stocks are a reality and have been used but in gas, strategic stocks do not exist except 5.1 bcm in Italy, 1 bcm in Spain and 1.2 bcm are being built in Hungary. Some possible EU changes could have an impact on the entire European gas market. Just outside EU-27, Ukraine has a form of strategic storage which represents 10% of its suppliers' annual supplies

  20. Panorama 2007: Oil Supply and Demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2007-01-01

    A new paradigm is gradually developing on the world oil market. Under extreme pressure from growing demand in emerging countries, the supply side is progressively adjusting. As the market stabilizes, prices are seeking their equilibrium. Although the WTI seems to be finding its level at about USD 60 per barrel, it is still too soon to take this price quotation as a reference. Due to the inertia in behaviours, the effects of recent trends are not all visible yet and adjustments are still underway. In this uncertain business environment, key market players have not yet finalized their strategies. (author)

  1. [Lung transplantation: supply and demand in France].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, M; Souilamas, R; Tixier, D; Mal, H

    2008-10-01

    For a decade lung transplantation has suffered from a lack of donor organs which aroused a national debate and led to planned action in collaboration with The French National Agency for Transplantation. Analysis of the stages of the process from potential donor to lung transplantation identified lung procurement as the main priority. An increase in the number of potential lung donors and revision of the acceptance criteria led to a doubling of the annual rate of lung transplantation in less than two years. In the near future we may solve the problem of donor family refusals and establish scientifically based criteria for lung acceptance to increase the rate of lung transplantation. Transplantation from non heart-beating donors and the reconditioning of ex vivo non acceptable lungs might supply additional organs to fulfill demand in the long term. The rate of lung transplantation activity in France doubled as the result of a dramatic increase of donor lung proposals. The current improvement in the results of lung transplantation might create new demands and generate future difficulties in the supply of donor lungs. New approaches, such as transplantation from non heart-beating donors and reconditioning ex vivo non acceptable lungs, should be examined in the near future.

  2. Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

    1997-01-01

    Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

  3. Demand and supply of wood fuels in the emission trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranta, T.; Lahtinen, P.; Laitila, J.

    2005-01-01

    The emission trade according to the EU directive on greenhouse gas emission allowance started at the beginning of the year 2005. This will boost the demand for wood fuels because of the addition-al value of CO 2 neutrality compared to fossil fuels. This bulletin covers the development of the demand and supply of wood fuels from 2002 to 2010 both at a national and a provincial level. The demand and supply balance of wood fuels will be evaluated both without the effect of emission trade and when the emission trade price level is 20 euro/ton- CO 2 for emission rights in 2010. The evaluations of fuel consumption for individual boilers were made with the help of the databases of Electrowatt-Ekono Ltd. The demand for wood fuels was estimated to double by the year 2010, being almost 50 TWh. The share of forest chips of the demand was one third, i.e. 17 TWh. The supply potential was divided into forest chips and solid by-products from forest industry. Forest chip sources included small diameter wood from young forests and logging residues and stumps from re-generation felling sites. The supply potential calculations of logging residues and stump biomass were based on databases of regeneration felling stands. The biomass potential from small diamreter wood was evaluated on the basis of field measurements of NFI 8 and 9 at a provincial level and multi-source data at a municipal level. In 2010, the supply potential of by-products was estimated to be 28 TWh of which 11 TWh was marketable out-side of the internal use of forest industry. Correspondingly, the theoretical potential of forest chips was estimated to be 51 TWh and the techno-economical potential 24 TWh. As a result of the regional optimization model, the energy use of wood fuels was 29 TWh, which was 59 % of the potential demand. In emission trade the demand was 33 TWh, which was 68 % of the potential demand. Regionally, the potential demand for wood fuels for energy use was higher than the supply in all provinces

  4. The prospects for Russian gas demand and exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, J.; Dobozi, I.; Maichel, G.; de Vries, R.

    1995-01-01

    Three contributions to the debate on the future of Russian internal gas demand and exports are presented. In the first, it is argued that Russia's domestic demand will continue to fall due to a combination of payment enforcement for large industrial enterprises and their closure arising from restructuring. Information on gas demand is difficult to interpret, but the most significant factor during 1993-94 was the non-payment of bills without supply disconnection. It is estimated that the falling internal demand will put Russia in the position by 2010 of being able roughly to double its exports to Europe compared with 1993. This could be at relatively low cost since the requirement for investment in production and transmission facilities will not be large. The second author examines economic factors that will decided the size of the Russian ''gas bubble''. Uncertainties in domestic demand open up a wide range of scenarios. The predictions of the first author are regarded as an extreme ''low demand case''. Factors which could increase demand are an anticipated turnaround in the Russian economy in the mid 1990s and the likelihood of energy intensive industries, in which gas would have a competitive advantage, remaining as the backbone of the economy. The third contribution discusses natural gas supply and demand forecasts for Western Europe and concludes that the completion of the Gamal-Europe project, completing a second gas supply line from Russia to Europe, is essential. (U.K.)

  5. Demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, C. J.; Tang, K.; Kelley, J. H.; Berger, B. J.

    1979-01-01

    Projections are made for the demand and supply of hydrogen as chemical feedstock in USA. Industrial sectors considered are petroleum refining, ammonia synthesis, methanol production, isocyanate manufacture, edible oil processing, coal liquefaction, fuel cell electricity generation, and direct iron reduction. Presently, almost all the hydrogen required is produced by reforming of natural gas or petroleum fractions. Specific needs and emphases are recommended for future research and development to produce hydrogen from other sources to meet the requirements of these industrial sectors. The data and the recommendations summarized in this paper are based on the Workshop 'Supply and Demand of Hydrogen as Chemical Feedstock' held at the University of Houston on December 12-14, 1977.

  6. Helium supply demand in future years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laverick, C.

    1975-01-01

    Adequate helium will be available to the year 2000 AD to meet anticipated helium demands for present day applications and the development of new superconducting technologies of potential importance to the nation. It is almost certain that there will not be enough helium at acceptable financial and energy cost after the turn of the century to meet the needs of the many promising helium based technologies now under development. Serious consideration should be given to establishing priorities in development and application based upon their relative value to the country. In the first half of the next century, three ways of estimating helium demand lead to cumulative ranges of from 75 to 125 Gcf (economic study), 89 to 470 Gcf (projected national energy growth rates) and 154 to 328 Gcf (needs for new technologies). These needs contrast with estimated helium resources in natural gas after 2000 AD which may be as low as 10 or 126 Gcf depending upon how the federal helium program is managed and the nation's natural gas resources are utilized. The technological and financial return on a modest national investment in further helium storage and a rational long term helium program promises to be considerable

  7. Resiliently evolving supply-demand networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubido, Nicolás; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to design a transport network such that commodities are brought from suppliers to consumers in a steady, optimal, and stable way is of great importance for distribution systems nowadays. In this work, by using the circuit laws of Kirchhoff and Ohm, we provide the exact capacities of the edges that an optimal supply-demand network should have to operate stably under perturbations, i.e., without overloading. The perturbations we consider are the evolution of the connecting topology, the decentralization of hub sources or sinks, and the intermittence of supplier and consumer characteristics. We analyze these conditions and the impact of our results, both on the current United Kingdom power-grid structure and on numerically generated evolving archetypal network topologies.

  8. New developments affecting uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandklef, S.; Sellers, J.

    1988-01-01

    At the Uranium Institute's 1986 Symposium, a presentation on the Western world's uranium supply and demand situation summarized the results of a year long study on the uranium market. Unexpected events in 1986 - the Chernobyl accident and new international trade barriers established in the USA -were seen as capable of causing substantial disturbances in the market. However, in mid 1986 it was too soon to determine their precise impact. This paper provides an update on the uranium market with particular focus on the impact of three factors: Chernobyl, the US Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act which included an embargo against South African and Namibian uranium imports, and general uranium import restrictions in the USA. (author)

  9. BC gas takes new approach to gas supply optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawdery, J.; Swoveland, C.

    1992-01-01

    Wide-ranging changes have taken place in the US and Canada since the mid-1980s in the way that local gas distribution utilities and large industrial customers contract for their gas supplies. This paper reports that these changes have been brought about by open-access policies, the intent of which was to allow customers more latitude to make their gas purchase and transportation arrangements and to improve the access of shippers to available gas transmission capacity. The effects of the new open-access regime have been profound on both sides of the border. More than 70% of North American gas supplies are now sold under unbundled arrangements in which gas supply is contracted under separate commodity and transportation agreements. For local distribution utilities, the numbers of potential supply options have become extremely large. Analysis of these options has become increasingly complex with the need to take account of complicated contract provisions, a wider range of storage options and swap arrangements with other utilities, opportunities for some customers to purchase gas directly and uncertainty about future demand, prices and supplier reliability

  10. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  11. Southwest British Columbia natural gas supply and deliverability: Discussion paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    A review is presented of energy in British Columbia, the role of natural gas, and options available to enhance gas supply security in the province's most densely populated area, the southwest. British Columbia has abundant natural gas supplies, and production exceeds domestic demand. In 1992, natural gas supplied ca 25% of total provincial end-use energy requirements, but this share is expected to rise to 30% by 2015. Although some say that the province's natural gas production and transmission system should serve only domestic needs, this would have significant negative impacts. Domestic gas supply policy allows gas consumers to contract their own supplies, but contract security is required. Provincial guidelines allow demand-side programs to compete with supply sources to ensure that the resource profile is achieved at least cost. In the southwest, natural gas demand is projected to increase from 189 PJ in 1991 to 262 PJ by 2005. Most gas supplied to this region comes from northeast British Columbia through pipelines that are generally fully contracted. Short-term deliverability can be a problem, especially in peak winter demand periods. The gas industry's contingency plans for shortages are outlined and alternatives to enhance deliverability to the southwest are assessed, including storage, expansion of the pipeline system, supply curtailment, and peaking supply contracts. Aspects of provincial natural gas planning are discussed, including security of supply and deliverability, economic and environmental impacts, consumer costs, safety, and the public interest. A least-cost option for enhancing deliverability (underground storage and an additional liquefied natural gas plant) is estimated to cost consumers $3.69/GJ over 20 years. 9 figs., 1 tab

  12. Energy demand and supply prompts record results for Canadian companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    The Canadian energy industry has shown consistent growth in recent years. This trend is expected to continue due high energy prices resulting from concerns regarding energy supply and increased demand for energy. The 2005 annual survey by Pricewaterhouse Coopers states that Canadian energy sectors have seen average revenues grow by 12.4 per cent from $934 million to $1.05 billion for conventional companies and by 30.5 per cent from $285 million to $372 million for income trusts. The survey provides a summary of Canada's energy industry, including crude oil, natural gas, oil and gas services, oil sands and electricity. The financial and operating information of the top 100 Canadian public oil and gas companies is also summarized, along with 31 oil and gas income trusts. The survey found that crude oil prices were influenced by price volatility and record highs in 2004. Price volatility was due to global political tensions, increased demand from China, India and the United States and lower crude supplies in the United States. Production of Canadian crude, including conventional, synthetic crude, heavy crude, natural gas and natural gas from liquids continued to increase in 2004. A strong pricing environment will likely continue, according to industry expectations, due to political instability in the Middle East and OPEC's tight crude supply strategy. Strong pricing is expected to enhance natural gas economics and promote increased capital investment and production. In 2004, the oil and gas service industry drilled a record 21,593 wells in Western Canada and a record 28,630 drilling permits will be issued. In 2004, there was also a strong demand for field services and improvements in many manufacturing firms. Production from Canadian oil sands in 2004 was over 1 million barrels per day. An estimated 174 billion barrels of oil lie within the oil sands, making Canada the second largest country in terms of global proven crude oil reserves. Several oil sands projects have

  13. The cost of longer-run gas supply to Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, P. R.

    1996-01-01

    The supply, demand and price outlook for natural gas in Europe were examined in detail. Demand for natural gas estimated to grow an average of 2.3% per annum, which will increase import dependence from 130 to 320 BCM over the next 30 years. For the immediate future profitable indigenous supply was predicted, aided by large proven and probable reserves, and technological advances. Indigenous output was forecast to increase by some 60% by 2025. Future international oil prices indicate gas-equivalent border values adequate to secure profitable supply from a variety of external sources leading to continuing competition for markets by producers and continuing diversification of imports. 30 refs., 9 tabs

  14. International performance indicators: gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    This study evaluates the performance of Australian's natural gas utilities against world best practice. In particular, it examines whether Australia's traded goods sector is disadvantaged by the performance of domestic infrastructure service industries. It reports on the operating efficiency of the natural gas industry using Data Envelopment Analysis. It concludes that the Australian gas industry as a whole is performing relatively well in term of operating efficiency and that its prices are comparable with prices in North America, once differences in consumption per customer are taken into consideration. Appendixes 1 and 2 provide a summary of the structure and regulation of the gas supply industry in Australia and selected overseas countries, while the Appendix 3 gives an econometric analysis of the relationships between consumption per customer and residential price-cost margins. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-07-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs

  16. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Trends and issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-07-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from time to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus being on the broad outlines of prospective energy market developments under different underlying assumptions about key variables. 7 tabs., 60 figs.

  17. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs.

  18. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 106 tabs., 171 figs

  19. Report on energy supply and demand in Canada : 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dion, M.; Lacroix, J.; Smalldridge, G.; Svab, J.; Cromey, N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of energy use in Canada. The year 1990 was used as a starting point because that is the base year for energy inventories for the Kyoto Protocol. Data was derived from monthly and quarterly surveys. The report describes data quality and methodology as well as energy conversion factors. It includes individual tables on primary and secondary energy for: coal, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, primary electricity, steam, coke, secondary electricity, refined petroleum products, non-energy refined petroleum products, solid wood waste, and spent liquor. The most recent data on energy demand and supply indicates that Canadians consumed energy for transportation twice as fast as the nation's industries did in the past 12 years. From 1990 to 2002, energy consumption in the transportation sector increased 22.7 per cent while demand in the industrial sector rose by 11.7 per cent. Canada's energy consumption increased 17.6 per cent from 1990 to 2002. In 2002, the transportation and industrial sectors each accounted for 30 per cent of total energy consumption. Consumption of natural gas, refined petroleum and coal increased 18.1 per cent, with the greatest increased being in natural gas. In 2002, electricity produced by water, nuclear power, wind and tidal action accounted for 25 per cent of energy consumption. Secondary electricity generation from fossil fuels increased steadily. The general increase in domestic demand for energy in 2002 was due to an increase in energy consumption by the industrial sector and by growing residential sales. In 2002, the rate of increase in energy consumption in Alberta was higher than in any other province due to a booming economy and rising population. Ontario consumed the most energy in 2002, accounting for 34 per cent of the country's energy demand

  20. The Law of Supply and Demand: Here It Is Finally

    OpenAIRE

    Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont

    2014-01-01

    There is no such thing as a law of human or social behavior. The conceptual consequence of the present paper is therefore to discard the subjectivebehavioral axioms and to take objective-structural axioms as new formal foundations. The central piece of economic theory is the interaction of demand and supply which determines prices and quantities. Demand and supply in turn are determined by subjective factors. In the structural axiomatic paradigm the Law of Supply and Demand follows from objec...

  1. Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?

    OpenAIRE

    Petri Jylhä; Kalle Rinne; Matti Suominen

    2014-01-01

    Regressing hedge funds’ returns on returns to a long–short contrarian trading strategy, a measure of the returns from providing liquidity, we find that hedge funds typically supply liquidity in the stock market. In the cross-section, strict redemption restrictions and large fund size increase funds’ propensity to supply liquidity. In time series, poor market liquidity and good funding conditions increase funds’ propensity to supply liquidity. Although the hedge funds typically supply liquidit...

  2. Are Credit Shocks Supply or Demand Shocks?

    OpenAIRE

    Bijapur, Mohan

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides new insights into the relationship between the supply of credit and the macroeconomy. We present evidence that credit shocks constitute shocks to aggregate supply in that they have a permanent effect on output and cause inflation to rise in the short term. Our results also suggest that the effects on aggregate supply have grown stronger in recent decades.

  3. Alternative supply specifications and estimates of regional supply and demand for stumpage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent P. Connaughton; David H. Jackson; Gerard A. Majerus

    1988-01-01

    Four plausible sets of stumpage supply and demand equations were developed and estimated; the demand equation was the same for each set, although the supply equation differed. The supply specifications varied from the model of regional excess demand in which National Forest harvest levels were assumed fixed to a more realistic model in which the harvest on the National...

  4. The balance of uranium supply and demand to 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.

    1980-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the following headings: lead times in the nuclear industry; short term flexibilities -impact on demand of changes in tails assay and effect on supply of changed operating characteristics; supply-demand balance (Uranium Institute methodology); installed nuclear capacity forecast; enrichment capacity forecast; uranium production projections; estimates of uranium supply and demand until 1990; the effect of stockpiling; recent influences on the supply and demand balance; the Harrisburg experience; the International Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE); the oil price spiral; conclusions. (U.K.)

  5. Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Satish; Kwon, Hyouk-Tae; Choi, Kwang-Ho; Hyun Cho, Jae; Lim, Wonsub; Moon, Il

    2011-01-01

    An unceasing growth of gas consumption in domestic households, industry, and power plants has gradually turned natural gas into a major source of energy. Main drivers in this development are the technical and economic advantages of natural gas. It is a clean, versatile, and easily controllable fuel. On this basis, natural gas is often considered the form of energy that will be the 'bridging fuel' to a sustainable energy system, sometime after 2050. Unlike other main sources of energy, such as oil and coal, gas is not traded on an actual world market. This paper provides an overview on demand and supplies of natural gas (LNG) in the past as a function of gas prices, gas technology (gas sweetening, liquefaction, shipping and re-gasification), and gas market and how they have changed recently. It also discusses the likely developments in global LNG demand for the period to the year 2030. - Highlights: → This study provides an overview on demand and supplies of LNG in the past and future. → Outlook for LNG demand in Asia pacific region is very robust. → In past decade the shale gas production in USA has increased fivefold. → The future of European gas supply depends largely on the geopolitical environments. → Within the gas sector LNG is playing an ever increasing role in gas transportation.

  6. Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabalu, Helen

    2010-01-01

    Natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource and a global commodity. The demand for it has significantly increased. Japan, Korea and Taiwan heavily rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for their gas supplies from Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Singapore import gas via trans-border pipelines. Gas supply interruptions, volatile gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks, and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances have renewed interest on gas security in Asia. This paper examines the relative vulnerability to natural gas supply disruptions of seven gas-importing countries in Asia for year 2008. Based on four indicators of security of gas supply, a composite gas supply security index is estimated as an overall indication of gas vulnerability for our sample countries. The results demonstrate that there are differences in the values of the overall indicator of gas vulnerability among countries and the assessment is useful in developing an effective strategy of natural gas supply security in countries in the Asian region. (author)

  7. U.S. natural gas pipeline flow and demand trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1992-01-01

    It is no surprise that regional natural gas supply and demand patterns in North America are constantly changing. A consensus of forecasters agree that the natural gas resource base is larger than envisaged in the early 1980s due to advances in exploration and production technology. In addition, on the demand side more gas will be burned by US power generators to meet growth in electricity. Gas consumption is up in the commercial sector, and natural gas is correctly seen as environmentally protective. But how much more natural gas does the US need? This paper reports that new pipeline projects are springing up all over the nation --- 43 to be exact, with most of them connecting gas deliverability out of basins west of the Mississippi to new markets along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts

  8. Growth in European gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    1993-01-01

    The last three decades witnessed mainly the development of gas pipeline systems as a result of major onshore and offshore gas strikes in the fifties and sixties as well as the increase in gas sales on market segments which has been previously cornered by oil and coal products. Power generation currently is an additional potential market for which the availability of adequate resources plays a major role

  9. Assessment of demand and supply of timber products in Benue ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study examines demand and supply of timber products in Benue State Nigeria with a view to highlighting the responsiveness of forest policy implementation. The scope of the study lies on plantation establishment targets and costs for 1999 to 2003, actual plantation establishment, timber supply and demand from ...

  10. Supply and demand for wood: a worldwide perspective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally. Duncan

    1998-01-01

    In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...

  11. Wood fiber supply and demand in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth E. Skog; Peter J. Ince; Richard W. Haynes

    1998-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service is preparing a national assessment of supply and demand for wood fiber resources in the United States. Based in part on preliminary results of this assessment and partly on our 1993 Assessment, this paper outlines trends and gives an outlook for demand and trade for timber and fiber products, changes in technology, and wood fiber resource supply...

  12. A strategic model of European gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holz, Franziska; Hirschhausen, Christian von; Kemfert, Claudia

    2005-01-01

    Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model these markets accurately. This paper proposes a model of the European natural gas supply including the possibility of strategic behavior of the agents along the value-added chain. We structure it as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (first stage) and wholesale trade within Europe (second stage). In the case of non-cooperative Cournot competition at both stages, which is the most realistic scenario, this yields a market outcome with double marginalization, that is suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up, at the expense of the final customers. Our results suggest that the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe remain dominant (Norway, the Netherlands), although some lose market shares (Algeria, UK, and especially Russia). Traditional exports will be complemented in the future by overseas supplies of LNG from the Middle East, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago which are becoming competitive. The model also enables us to identify transport infrastructure bottlenecks; we find that transport capacity on the upstream market is sufficient but the capacity constraint is binding for many intra-EU trade relations. (Author)

  13. On the demand for natural gas in urban China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Yihua; Zheng, Xinye; Han, Yi

    2014-01-01

    Using a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during the period of 2006–2009, this study aims to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. Natural gas consumption is specified as a function of its own price; substitute prices; urban wages; and other supply, climate, and housing characteristics. Using a feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) technique, which controls for panel heteroskedasticity and panel correlation, we find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic when other covariates (e.g., the supply of natural gas pipeline and heating degree days) are controlled. In addition, there are large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions. There is a substantial income effect on demand for natural gas in southern China, whereas the northern regions are found to have a higher price effect. In addition, the substitution effect between coal and natural gas is significant in North China but is not significant in South China. These findings have several important policy implications for natural gas pricing and supply cost analysis in the context of China. - Highlights: • We estimate the price and income elasticities of residential demand for natural gas. • We use a set of unbalanced panel data for Chinese's cities during 2006–2009. • We use a feasible generalised least squares approach. • We find that natural gas consumption is price elastic and income inelastic. • We find large variations in demand behaviours across China's regions

  14. GRI baseline projection of U.S. Energy supply and demand to 2010. 1991 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; McCabe, N.C.

    1991-04-01

    The report summarizes the 1991 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand and presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. Appendixes include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1991 projection, a brief discussion of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer (IPP) methodology and projection, a comparison of the 1991 edition with previous projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  15. The challenge of implementing green gas into the gas supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan

    2014-01-01

    In order to gain a more mature share in the future energy supply, green gas supply chains face some interesting challenges. In this thesis green gas supply chains, based on codigestion of cow manure and maize, are considered. The produced biogas is upgraded to natural gas quality and injected into

  16. Gas markets and security of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibot, G.

    1997-01-01

    In the natural gas business, some European states and companies seem to be concerned by security of supply. Security of supply for a governmental organisation is discussed, to share the author's conception and experience. The targets of a security of supply policy and the measures that can be set are described. The possible changes in implementing this policy are considered, according to recent developments in the field of gas security. The specificity of European gas markets justify the concern in security of supply, as concluded the Commission and the IEA. The integration of national gas markets in Europe will give new opportunities for managing this security of supply. (R.P.)

  17. The balance of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, T.

    1984-01-01

    The subject is covered in sections, entitled: introduction (importance of uranium supplies); history (exploration, development, uranium prices, reactor orders); uranium mining as a business; influence of national policies on the uranium industry; nuclear non-proliferation policy and its effects on uranium; uranium and the fast reactor; conclusion. (U.K.)

  18. Safety stock placement in supply chains with demand forecast updates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssef Boulaksil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Supply chains are exposed to many types of risks and it may not be obvious where to keep safety stocks in the supply chain to hedge against those risks, while maintaining a high customer service level. In this paper, we develop an approach to determine the safety stock levels in supply chain systems that face demand uncertainty. We model customer demand following the Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE. An extensive body of literature discusses the safety stock placement problem in supply chains, but most studies assume independent and identically distributed demand. Our approach is based on a simulation study in which mathematical models are solved in a rolling horizon setting. It allows determining the safety stock levels at each stage of the supply chain. Based on a numerical study, we find that a big portion of the safety stocks should be placed downstream in the supply chain to achieve a high customer service level.

  19. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  20. Demand and Supply in Information Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davenport, Lizzie; Cronin, Blaise

    1988-01-01

    Describes the reduced employment opportunities for library and information science professionals in the United Kingdom as a result of financial constraints and restructuring in the public and private sectors. The need to train students in skills required by employers to meet employment demands is discussed. (40 references) (CLB)

  1. Germany's Energy Demand and Supply Until 2020: Implications for Germany's Foreign Energy Policy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Stellmann, Lars

    2003-01-01

    .... Russia may not be available to provide the amount necessary. The gas situation is somewhat less urgent, as a supply shift will have to take place only after 2010, when the Norwegian and Dutch gas reserves cease to satisfy the export demand...

  2. A new technology aimed at re-establishing a global sulphur supply/demand balance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slavens, A.F.; Jorgensen, C.; Ogg, D.

    2009-01-01

    The world's sulphur supply is mainly determined by involuntary production of elemental sulphur during the processing of oil and gas. As a result, sulphur supply is decoupled from demand, resulting in an imbalance between the two. For almost two decades, sulphur supply has exceeded demand, which has raised significant concerns for oil and gas producers such as where to store all of the excess sulphur, and how to transport a low-value commodity to market in an economically attractive fashion. Black and Veatch is involved in the development of a new technology called sulphur to energy process (STEP TM ) which has the potential to assist in balancing global sulphur supply and demand, as well as affording other benefits such as low-emission energy production. This paper presented the potential merits of the STEP as a means to reestablish a global sulphur supply/demand balance for the world trading market. It explored the other potential benefits that may result from the use of this new technology and compared STEP to other technologies and operating schemes that regulate sulphur supply. It was concluded that STEP has the potential to allow the processor to produce elemental sulphur when demand is high, or to provide safe and ecological disposal when demand is low, with the added benefits of energy recovery from the sulphur combustion process, and sour gas reservoir sweetening over time as sulphur dioxide reacts with hydrogen sulphide present in the reservoir. 13 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs

  3. City gas supply management system. Toshi gas kyokyu kanri system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ota, S [Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1991-07-05

    Supply and control system of city gas (about 90% is LNG) at Tokyo Gas Company is summarized. The LNG is delivered from the high pressure, A-middle pressure and B-middle pressure stations through the low pressure governors at about 3,000 locations to the low-pressure conduit networks. The information system department uses a large-size general purpose IBM computer as a host computer, control computers at each station, and communication networks consisted mainly of the in-house wireless networks. The trunk lines are all looped, and the important facilities are dualized. Characteristic functions include the supply prediction, which takes into account the past supply and ambient temperature records, a day of the week for a particular date, and demand fluctuation trends; adjustments of each holder based on the prediction and restrictions; and piping network simulation to decide gas manufacturing patterns, and determine reasonability of local construction of complicated conduits. The monitoring and control system as the central nerve includes a quick block-wide operation at an accident from earthquake and the like to prevent wide area disasters. 8 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Outline of energy (electricity) supply and demand outlook in Asian APEC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujime, Kazuya

    1995-01-01

    Oil: Japan's oil demand is projected to be on a gradual decline in the future due to implementation of policy measures aimed at achieving that objective, while consumption of oil in three areas - China, NIES and six ASEAN countries -- is projected to increase to reach a level nearly three times as large as Japan's demand by 2010. Supply of oil in the region is projected to level off, making it necessary for the region to increase its reliance on other areas for additional volumes of oil supply. Coal: Demand for coal is projected to grow against a background of expansion of coal-fired power generation. Coal demand in China, in particular, is projected to grow to such an extent that China may become a net coal importer, thus having a great impact on coal supply and demand in Asian countries. Natural gas: Demand for natural gas is projected to grow in the region, centering on NIES and ASEAN countries. Although production in ASEAN countries is expected to increase, the region is anticipated to increase its reliance on other areas for natural gas supply from medium - and long term perspectives. Oil products: Demand for oil products is projected to grow due to stepped-up industrialization and motorization in China, NIES and ASEAN countries. From medium - and long-term perspectives, considerable volumes of additional oil product supply will become necessary, unless large-scale refineries are newly built or expanded within the region centering on China. (author)

  5. America: AGA [American Gas Association] initiative aims to boost gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraser, K.M.

    1992-01-01

    This article focuses on the aim of the American Gas Association to increase natural gas demand in the key areas of gas electric generation, natural gas vehicles, gas cooling, and conversion of oil burning facilities, electric water heaters and household appliances such as space heating, stoves, washers and lighting. The need to improve the reliability of natural gas supplies is discussed. It is anticipated that natural gas will not replace coal as the main energy source for power generation, but that it will help utilities to meet environmental regulations. (UK)

  6. Gas demand to rise in the Usa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2000-01-01

    Could US consumption of natural gas rise by as much as 13 quadrillion Btu (quads) over the next 20 years? A new study conducted for the American Gas Foundation by Washington Policy and Analysis says it's certainly a possibility if appropriate policies are implemented. 'Fueling the Future: Natural Gas and New Technologies for a Cleaner 21. Century', confirms what natural gas industry professionals have long suspected: changes in US energy policy that favor increased use of natural gas could improve air quality, conserve energy and reduce reliance on imported oil from politically unstable countries. Consequently, the study forecasts that the environmental, economic and efficiency advantages of natural gas-combined with advances in gas-related technologies and the introduction of new end-use technologies - could help push. US gas consumption into the 35-quad range over the next two decades. Currently, American gas demand is close to 22 quads a year. The study tracks two scenarios: a 'current projection', which shows gas demand reaching nearly 30 quads by 2020, and an 'accelerated projection', which foresees demand topping 35 quads by then based on the adoption of national policies encouraging greater use of natural gas. (authors)

  7. Bridging gaps in bioenergy: Deploying system analysis to investigate potential biomass supply, demand and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios from a national, European and global perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoefnagels, E.T.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313935998

    2014-01-01

    In transition towards a sustainable energy system with deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced consumption of fossil fuels, substitution of fossil energy carriers with biomass is considered one of the most important options. In the last decade, fossil energy and GHG mitigation

  8. Natural gas supply in Denmark - A model of natural gas transmission and the liberalized gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bregnbaek, L.

    2005-01-01

    In the wake of the liberalization of European energy markets a large area of research has spawned. This area includes the development of mathematical models to analyze the impact of liberalization with respect to efficiency, supply security and environment, to name but a few subjects. This project describes the development of such a model. In Denmark the parallel liberalization of the markets of natural gas and electricity and the existence of an abundance of de-centralized combined heat and power generators of which most are natural gas fired, leads to the natural assumption that the future holds a greater deal of interdependency for these markets. A model is developed describing network flows in the natural gas transmission system, the main arteries of natural gas supply, from a technical viewpoint. This yields a technical bounding on the supply available in different parts of the country. Additionally the economic structure of the Danish natural gas market is formulated mathematically giving a description of the transmission, distribution and storage options available to the market. The supply and demand of natural gas is put into a partial equilibrium context by integrating the developed model with the Balmorel model, which describes the markets for electricity and district heat. Specifically on the demand side the consumption of natural gas for heat and power generation is emphasized. General results and three demonstration cases are presented to illustrate how the developed model can be used to analyze various energy policy issues, and to disclose the strengths and weaknesses in the formulation. (au)

  9. Panorama 2009 - oil supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The year 2008 will probably go down in the annals of the oil industry along with the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, the counter-shock of 1986 and the demand surge of 2004. The price spikes observed until the month of July were unusually high, followed by an unusually abrupt, steep decrease. This is the result of the short-sightedness shown by all market players, most of whom failed to anticipate the economic downturn

  10. Enbridge 2004 annual report : supply demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Financial information from Enbridge was presented and a review of their 2004 operations was made available for the benefit of shareholders. Calgary based Enbridge is a leading North American energy delivery company operating in Canada and the United States. Enbridge's core competencies include liquids pipelining, gas distribution and gas pipelining which continued to provide high earnings per share. 2004 was a successful year in terms of financial and operational results and also in terms of developing and fulfilling long-term strategies. Earnings in 2004 increased by 8 per cent in adjusted earnings per share. Highlights of the year include broadening the access to markets for customers of crude oil pipelines; expanding the gas pipelines business; expanding the Ontario gas distribution network; increasing sponsored investments; and evaluating opportunities for growth in the international division. A key relationship was also established for developing oil sands and broadening US and Canadian markets. This report summarized the company's energy resource activities and presented an operations review as well as consolidated financial statements, and common share information including the accounts of Enbridge and the company's proportionate share of the assets, liabilities, revenues, expenses and cash flows of joint ventures. Revenue and expenditure statements were summarized by source. tabs., figs

  11. Natural gas consumption trends and demand projections for Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.

    2005-01-01

    Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)

  12. Supply and Demand for Business Education in Naval Aviation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gray, Obra L

    2005-01-01

    ... modernization with current readiness. This project analyzes the supply and demand for postgraduate business education to determine how prepared Naval Aviation is to achieve long-term transformation objectives...

  13. High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Möller

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS. The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings with individual supply, or in collective heating using renewable energy for heating the current building stock, can be based on improved data.

  14. The global food crisis : supply and demand revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Sammut, Vince

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to show that the volatility in food prices between 2008 and 2011 cannot be explained merely by the market fundamentals of demand and supply. While global changes in demand and supply are bringing about radical changes to the food equation, evidence shows that market failure in the world grain market aggravated the problem. Excess liquidity, brought about by monetary growth policies after the subprime crises and financial meltdown in 2008, has stimulated speculation and hoar...

  15. Estimating demand and supply of edible oil in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Haq, Rashida

    1991-01-01

    This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of edible oil is highly affected by urbanization, increase in per capita income, relative high price of its substitutes and the rapid growth of the population. In order to estimate supply response model ...

  16. Supply and Demand Model for the Malaysian Cocoa Market

    OpenAIRE

    Abdel Hameed, Amna Awad; Hasanov, Akram; Idris, Nurjihan; Abdullah, Amin Mahir; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates a system of supply, demand, and price equations for Malaysian cocoa using annual data over the period 1975-2008. Theoretically, in supply and demand models, the price variable is treated as endogenous. However, Hausman specification test result indicates that there is no simultaneity problem in the model. Thus, we estimate the system of equations utilizing the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation technique which might be considered a more effi...

  17. Alberta's reserves 2004 and supply/demand outlook 2005-2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burrowes, A.; Marsh, R.; Ramdin, N.; Evans, C.; Kirsch, M.A.; Philp, L.; Fujda, M.; Stenson, J.; Sadler, K.; Sankey, G.; Hill, C.; Rahnama, F.; Habib, G.; MacGillivray, J.

    2005-01-01

    This document presents information on the state of reserves, supply, and demand for Alberta's energy resources including bitumen, crude oil, coalbed methane (CBM), conventional natural gas, natural gas liquids, sulphur, and coal. Estimates of initial reserves, remaining established reserves, and ultimate potential were also included, along with a 10-year supply and demand forecast for Alberta's energy resources. The document presents major forecast assumptions that influence Alberta's energy supply and demand. Some of the main variables affecting energy supply and demand include the global oil market, energy prices, Canadian economic performance and the economic outlook for Alberta. The development of Alberta's energy resources depends on reserve supply, costs of development, energy demands, conservation, and social, economic and environmental considerations. In 2004, raw bitumen production continued to grow and accounted for 69 per cent of Alberta's total crude oil and bitumen production. The value-added process of upgrading raw bitumen to synthetic crude oil was also expanded in 2004. Natural gas production from all sources in Alberta increased by 1 per cent compared with 2003. CBM development also increased greatly in 2004. Although it accounted for 80 per cent of the cumulative CBM production to date, it only contributed 0.5 per cent of the provincial total natural gas production. It is expected that CBM development will continue to increase in the coming years. For that reason, a separate estimate of CBM reserves was included. tabs., figs

  18. Reconstruction of Low Pressure Gas Supply System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Osipov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The current reconstruction of residential areas in large cities especially with the developed heat-supply systems from thermal power stations and reduction of heat consumption for heating due to higher thermal resistance of building enclosing structures requires new technical solutions in respect of gas-supply problems. While making reconstruction of a gas-supply system of the modernized or new buildings in the operating zone of one gas-distribution plant it is necessary to change hot water-supply systems from gas direct-flow water heaters to centralized heat-supply and free gas volumes are to be used for other needs or gas-supply of new buildings with the current external gas distribution network.Selection of additional gas-line sections and points of gas-supply systems pertaining to new and reconstructed buildings for their connection to the current distribution system of gas-supply is to be executed in accordance with the presented methodology.

  19. Development of Shale Gas Supply Chain Network under Market Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Chebeir

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The increasing demand of energy has turned the shale gas and shale oil into one of the most promising sources of energy in the United States. In this article, a model is proposed to address the long-term planning problem of the shale gas supply chain under uncertain conditions. A two-stage stochastic programming model is proposed to describe and optimize the shale gas supply chain network. Inherent uncertainty in final products’ prices, such as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL, is treated through the utilization of a scenario-based method. A binomial option pricing model is utilized to approximate the stochastic process through the generation of scenario trees. The aim of the proposed model is to generate an appropriate and realistic supply chain network configuration as well as scheduling of different operations throughout the planning horizon of a shale gas development project.

  20. German natural gas market and the international supply situation. Pt. 1. Supply market for natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolinski, U [Deutsches Inst. fuer Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.). Abt. Bergbau und Energie

    1978-01-01

    Since the oil crisis the buyers's market started to change to a seller's market as a result of the worldwide rising demand for natural gas. This development will be amplified with the increasing significance and volume of LNG trade. This depends upon the availability of handling and tanker capacities. It is considered that technical solutions are available. The internationalisation of the world natural gas market imposes changes in terms of trade for the Federal Republic of Germany. In the sixties, terms of trade made under sales considerations presented no problems. But gas buyers today are forced to accept sellers' terms looking for the buyer offering the highest prices and other sales advantages. The world gas market has assumed the features of a polypolistic market. The security of supply is not a matter of adequate reserves, but almost entirely that of terms of contract on which the natural gas supply can be ensured. It is thereby decisive, whether it will be possible in future to procure the required amount of gas at such terms that it can be sold on the German energy market at competetive rates.

  1. Deriving local demand for stumpage from estimates of regional supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent P. Connaughton; Gerard A. Majerus; David H. Jackson

    1989-01-01

    The local (Forest-level or local-area) demand for stumpage can be derived from estimates of regional supply and demand. The derivation of local demand is justified when the local timber economy is similar to the regional timber economy; a simple regression of local on nonlocal prices can be used as an empirical test of similarity between local and regional economies....

  2. Supply and demand in the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, J.P.

    2000-01-01

    The year 1998 was characterised a lower level of demand for energy in general and in articular for oil due to the Asian crisis. Within such a context; efforts at reducing production were not sufficient to prevent prices falling to their lowest levels since the first oil crisis. In 1999, we saw a complete reversal of this trend, with consumption back on a growth path and the new cuts in production agreed by OPEC being firmly implemented. These two factors have led to sustained increases in the price of oil, which, at the end of 1999, reached levels considered very high. Future prices will depend upon the durable nature of economic upturn and above all on continued discipline among the producer nations. (authors)

  3. 2009 reference case scenario : Canadian energy demand and supply to 2020 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The National Energy Board regulates the construction and operation of interprovincial and international oil and gas pipelines and power lines as well as the tolls and tariffs for the pipelines under its jurisdictions. The import and export of natural gas is also regulated by the NEB. The NEB examined the possible energy futures that might unfold for Canadians up to the year 2020. The factors that affect the supply of crude oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, electricity and coal in the short term were examined to determine the outlook for deliverability through 2020. The growing demand for energy was reviewed along with the adequacy of future energy supplies, and related issues of emerging technologies, energy infrastructure and energy exports. This assessment provided separate production outlooks for hydrocarbons, electricity and coal and outlined the key uncertainties to the supply outlook. The likely impact of recent economic, energy and policy trends on energy demand and supply were considered. It was concluded that energy markets in Canada will continue to function well. Energy prices will provide appropriate market signals for the development of energy resources to meet Canadian and export demand. A significant portion of Canadian demand for energy will be met by fossil fuels. However, the demand to move towards greener energy fuels should result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. 1 tab., 27 figs.

  4. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  5. Education: Demand and Supply of Teachers for Primary Schools in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    How to ensure Nigerians have access to Universal Basic Education has often attracted the attention of some States and Federal Government of Nigeria since 1955. Several factors, bordering on supply of teachers, facilities, finance have constrained implementation of well fashioned policies. Demand and supply of teachers ...

  6. On the interdependence of money supply and demand

    OpenAIRE

    Cavalieri, Duccio

    2013-01-01

    This is a short essay on the present state of a controversial problem: that of the relationship between the supply and the demand for money. Exogeneous or endogenous money supply? The different positions taken in the literature on the subject are examined and discussed. The author's confidence in their interdependence is then expressed and motivated.

  7. The Supply and Demand of Teachers and Teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerfoss, Evelyn; Shapiro, Leo J.

    There is a general oversupply of teachers. Attempts to regulate teacher supply and demand are flawed by assumptions that teachers are a limited consumer item and that the school system will persist in its present form. The financial crises of schools, the demand of accountability, and the challenge to the principle of compulsory education indicate…

  8. Uganda Coffee Supply Response and Export Demand: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Econometric methods were used to estimate the supply and demand functions for Uganda's coffee using time series data for the period 1971-91. Eight major importing countries for Uganda's coffee: U.S., U.K., Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands were considered in export demand analysis.

  9. Oil supply and demand - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The crude price variations of the last five years might be compared to the movements of a ball bouncing in an elevator. At regular intervals, a new high is reached, setting a record soon to be broken in turn. For each 'bounce', we might try to identify the conjuncture reasons responsible for pushing prices upwards, but there is always another new high, because the elevator has not finished going up. The price of US$ 100/bbl was reached 'by accident' at the beginning of 2008. Prices will stay high in future, and this record will inevitably be left behind for good in the next few years. Supply, limited in its nature, is inadequate in the face of needs infinite in their desires. This has placed the crude price on a growth path whose direction could only be changed, it would seem, by massive development of replacement fuels or very large gains in energy efficiency. That is, unless the world economy were hit by a major economic crisis

  10. Vanadium supply and demand outlook. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    A review has been made of the reserves and resources for vanadium minerals in the United States and foreign countries. Foreign sources are presently used to provide a substantial part of national demand because of price advantages. There are so many functioning foreign sources for vanadium that it is difficult to conceive of circumstances that would shut all of them off. The basis for the national stockpile is described. A recommendation is made to add the 65V-35Al alloy as a component of the stockpile for titanium alloy production in a national emergency. Estimated consumption growth rates to 1990 vary from one to five percent per year depending on the end product involved. Fission reactor use of vanadium-base alloys has not developed because of technical problems. In the chemical field, a slow steady growth of five to six percent per year is projected. Technical preferences for vanadium in various steel applications will continue although other alloying alternatives are generally available. Overall environmental effects do not appear to be a serious industrial problem

  11. Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gauthier, Jean-Michel

    2009-01-01

    For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO_2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

  12. Security of gas supply in open markets. LNG and power at a turning point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Since the 'IEA Study on Security of Gas Supply' was published in 1995, many member countries have started to open their gas and electricity markets to competition. Governments progressively withdrew from directly managing the gas sector; they concentrate now on setting objectives and the framework for competition. With the continued growth of gas demand and the decline of domestic reserves, most IEA countries have to import more gas, mainly for power generation. This requires access to gas reserves at competitive conditions, as well as timely investment in new infrastructure to ensure a reliable gas supply. Reform has led to open markets, where supply and demand are balanced by the market. In the gas sector, supply is capacity-bound and large parts of the demand side are inelastic. The study looks at how governments and other stakeholders in IEA countries respond to the need to create a framework that enables the players to deliver secure and reliable gas supply at the border and all the way down to the final customer. This book analyses the most recent developments in security of gas supply and reliability in all IEA regions in the context of open markets and in view of the new demand and supply trends. A CD-Rom featuring the positions of the main stakeholders (governments, regulators, industry, customers and other organisations) is included with the publication. 'Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets' is a follow-up of 'Flexibility in Natural Gas Supply and Demand' in the IEA series on energy market reforms

  13. High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd; Nielsen, Steffen

    2014-01-01

    Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat...... demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS). The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat......, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings...

  14. Future supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grover, L.K.

    1991-01-01

    A literature survey has been conducted to assess the future world supply of, and demand for, titanium, copper and lead. These metals are candidates for the fabrication of containers for the immobilization and disposal of Canada's nuclear used-fuel in an underground disposal vault at a Used-Fuel Disposal Centre. The Centre is assumed to begin operation by the year 2020 and continue for about 40 years. The survey has shown that the world has abundant supplies of titanium minerals (mostly in the form of ilmenite), which are expected to last up to at least 2110. However, for copper and lead, the balance between supply and demand may warrant increased monitoring beyond the year 2000. A number of factors that can influence supply and demand are discussed

  15. Case study of forecasting uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noritake, Kazumitsu

    1992-01-01

    PNC collects and analyzes information about uranium market trend, world uranium supply and demand, and world uranium resources potential in order to establish the strategy of uranium exploration. This paper outlines the results obtained to forecast uranium supply and demand. Our forecast indicates that 8,500 tU, accounting for one-sixth of the demand in the year 2001, must be met by uranium produced by mines to be newly developed. After 2019, demand cannot be met by the 123 mines currently in operation or expected to have gone into production by this year. The projected shortage must therefore be covered by uranium to be newly discovered. To preclude this occurrence, uranium exploration will have to be steadily continued in order to ensure future new uranium resources, to alleviate anxiety about future supply, and to prevent sharp price hikes. (author)

  16. Long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report on the long-range outlook of energy demands and supplies in Japan as prepared by an ad hoc committee, Advisory Committee for Energy was given for the period up to the year 2000. As the energy demands in terms of crude oil, the following figures are set: 460 million kl for 1990, 530 million kl for 1995, and 600 million kl for 2000. In Japan, without domestic energy resources, over 80% of the primary energy has been imported; the reliance on Middle East where political situation is unstable, for petroleum is very large. The following things are described. Background and policy; energy demands in industries, transports, and people's livelihood; energy supplies by coal, nuclear energy, petroleum, etc.; energy demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  17. Fuel switching? Demand destruction? Gas market responses to price spikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lippe, D.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation defined fuel switching and addressed the issue regarding which consumers have the capability to switch fuels. In response to short term price aberrations, consumers with fuel switching capabilities reduce their use of one fuel and increase consumption of an alternative fuel. For example, natural gas consumption by some consumers declines in response to price spikes relative to prices of alternative fuels. This presentation also addressed the issue of differentiating between fuel switching and demand destruction. It also demonstrated how to compare gas prices versus alternative fuel prices and how to determine when consumers will likely switch fuels. Price spikes have implications for long term trends in natural gas demand, supply/demand balances and prices. The power generating sector represents a particular class of gas consumers that reduce operating rates of gas fired plants and increase operating rates of other plants. Some gas consumers even shut down plants until gas prices declines and relative economies improve. Some practical considerations for fuel switching include storage tank capacity, domestic refinery production, winter heating season, and decline in working gas storage. tabs., figs

  18. Wingas in natural gas supply in Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Recently Wingas has become active in the transport and supply of natural gas in Belgium and succeeded in entering contracts for the supply of natural gas which cover 6% of the Belgian market. Wingas is a German-Russian joint venture between BASF-daughter Wintershall and OAO Gasprom [nl

  19. An energy supply and demand model for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silberberg, R.B.

    1981-08-01

    The topic of this thesis is the development of a model of energy supply and demand in South Africa to project energy flows up to the year 2005 and also to assess the implications of policy actions. In this thesis, a method of determining energy flows taking generally accepted economic and technological factors into account is developed. Also, various situations are tested, in order to determine the following: 1) Likely energy flows up to 2005, as well as possible upper and lower bounds. 2) Significant final demand sectors, in terms of energy requirements. 3) The effects of changes in supply and demand sector technology. 4) The implications of policy options such as enengy independence. Owing to the different characteristics of the energy supply and demand sectors, the following techniques were used: 1) Energy demand sectors. 2) Energy supply sectors. 3) Supply/demand equilibration 4) Output. Through successive runs of the model, the policy-maker is able to indentify likely values of energy flows, as well as upper and lower boundaries given the described set of assumptions. The following statements are made as conclusions: 1) The growth rate of domectic coal demand is likely to be 5,5 % per annum up to 2005. 2) The Iron and Steel industry and the Mining industry have the greatest potential effect on coal demand. 3) The coal growth rate stated above implies certain improvements in coal to liquid fuel and electricity conversion. 4) The coal demands of oil energy independence are listed, highlighting the fact that major coal exports and energy independence may be mutually exclusive. Other conclusions regarding capital requirements, oil imports and coking coal utilization are described. The model permits a consistent and inteqrated forecast of national energy flows to be made, providing the policymaker with projections that include the effects of uncertainty with regard to future technologies and economic output. This feature is crucial for policy formulation

  20. Long-term uranium supply-demand analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    It is the intention of this study to investigate the long-term uranium supply demand situation using a number of supply and demand related assumptions. For supply, these assumptions as used in the Resources and Production Projection (RAPP) model include country economic development status, and consequent lead times for exploration and development, uranium development status, country infrastructure, and uranium resources including the Reasonably Assured (RAR), Estimated Additional, Categories I and II, (EAR-I and II) and Speculative Resource categories. The demand assumptions were based on the ''pure'' reactor strategies developed by the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements for the 1986 OECD (NEA)/IAEA reports ''Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle: Prospects to 2025''. In addition for this study, a mixed strategy case was computed using the averages of the Plutonium (Pu) burning LWR high, and the improved LWR low cases. It is understandable that such a long-term analysis cannot present hard facts, but it can show which variables may in fact influence the long-term supply-demand situation. It is hoped that results of this study will provide valuable information for planners in the uranium supply and demand fields. Periodical re-analyses with updated data bases will be needed from time to time

  1. The importance of North Sea gas to European energy supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Probert, R.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas can, of course, be transported over very long distances but, because of the economics of gas transmission, its impact is most often local. This has certainly been the case with North Sea gas, which has clearly contributed significantly to European energy supply and will continue to do so for some time to come. The historical importance of the discovery of gas in the North Sea has been that it has enabled natural gas industries to grow rapidly in North West Europe. Without North Sea gas and Dutch gas it is difficult to see how town gas would have been replaced in North West Europe. Certainly, a much smaller natural gas industry would have emerged. North Sea gas has inevitably had the greatest impact on gas markets in the countries of the European Community and this will remain the case in future. Nevertheless, it is inevitable that gas will, in future, flow across more national boundaries than in the past, and that North Sea gas will have an important part to play in meeting the Central European demand for competitively priced, secure supplies. This paper discusses the United Kingdom market for gas and future demand both in the United Kingdom and more widely in Europe. An examination of the availability of gas supplies from the North Sea suggests that it is unlikely that there will be a surplus of gas for export from the United Kingdom continental shelf. Norway will remain the main source of exports, with the Netherlands also in a strong position. Transportation and political aspects are also considered. (author)

  2. A Supply and Demand Update of the Molybdenum-99 Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-08-01

    Medical diagnostic imaging techniques using technetium-99m account for roughly 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures, representing over 30 million examinations worldwide every year. Disruptions in the supply chain of these medical isotopes - which have half-lives of 66 hours for molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and 6 hours for its daughter isotope, technetium-99m (' 99m Tc), and thus must be produced continually - can lead to cancellations or delays in important medical testing services. Unfortunately, supply reliability has declined over the past decade due to unexpected or extended shutdowns at the few ageing 99 Mo-producing research reactor and processing facilities. These shutdowns have created global supply shortages. In 2011, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), along with its High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR), released a report that presents the reasons behind the lack of infrastructure that led to global supply shortages and a policy approach to encourage long-term medical isotope supply security. In that report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: The Path to Reliability, the NEA also provides potential futures of supply and demand out to 2030. Since the release of The Path there have been a number of changes in the market and therefore this document provides an update on the 2011 supply and demand situation. This update is based on information provided to the NEA by members of the HLG-MR and other key stakeholders. This presentation of supply and demand future scenarios for the 99 Mo market revises previous NEA future scenarios based on new data and target conversion commitments from the supply chain. The update, unfortunately, does not present a more optimistic future scenario than previous presentations - the concern around the uneconomic situation of the supply chain continues to dominate the potential for new projects. This results in the potential for long-term shortages within the decade. However, there are a

  3. Demand for Canadian gas in the U.S. market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, L.H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that Canadian natural gas exports to the United States commenced in 1957 and have now reached 1.3 Tcf per year. Natural gas consumption in the united States is currently 25% of the total energy consumption, which is expected t grow considerably by the year 2000. National security and environmental concerns will make natural gas an increasingly desirable fuel, and U.S. domestic gas reserves will be insufficient to supply the demand growth. Consequently, there is a growing opportunity for increased sales of Canadian natural gas to the united States provided economic, regulatory and political situations do not deprive U.S. consumers of the opportunity to utilize this source of the world's cleanest fuel

  4. Money, prices and liquidity effects: Separating demand from supply

    OpenAIRE

    Chadha, Jagjit S.; Corrado, Luisa; Sun, Qi

    2008-01-01

    In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates and output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because of its impact on financial spreads. And so we decompose broad money into primitive demand and supply shocks. We find that supply shocks have dominated the time series in both the UK and the US in the sh...

  5. Gas engine supplied with fermentation gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cupial, K

    1978-01-01

    A CH/sub 4/-rich fermentation gas from the waste-treatment plant at Czestochowa is used as fuel to drive the generating set composed of an electric generator and a piston diesel engine adapted to operation with the fermentation gas. The adaption involved the use of a classical car ignition installation instead of the injection pumps and injector. The gas contains approximately CH/sub 4/ 60, CO/sub 2/ 32, N 5, and H 3 volume%.

  6. When Demand Creates its Own Supply: Saving Traps

    OpenAIRE

    Christophe Chamley

    2014-01-01

    The mechanism by which aggregate supply creates the income that generates its matching demand (called Say's Law), may not work in a general equilibrium with decentralized markets and savings in bonds or money. Full employment is an equilibrium, but convergence to that state is slow. A self-fulfilling precautionary motive to accumulate bonds (with a zero aggregate supply) can set the economy on an equilibrium path with a fast convergence towards a steady state with unemployment that may be an ...

  7. Labour supply and commodity demands : an application to Irish data

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony Murphy; Rodney Thom

    1986-01-01

    Annual Irish data are used to estimate a model which allows for the joint determination of commodity demands and labour supply. Consumer preferences are modelled by a cost function of the Gorman polar form which permits exact linear aggregation over individuals with different money wage rates. Separability between goods and leisure is rejected by the data. Labour supply is found to be a positive function of the wage rate.

  8. U.S. gas supply overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, R.

    1999-01-01

    The most recent outlook by Purvin and Gertz regarding the long-term supply potential of oil and gas producing basins in the United States was presented. The role that technology will play in extending their economic reach was also discussed. The focus of this paper was on regional supply, inter regional gas flows and related issues such as pricing. A series of maps depicting production (in Tcf) of various basins in North America showed that the important supply sources are in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountains, onshore Texas and Canada. Natural gas pricing from 1990 to 2020 has been forecasted to steadily increase. 1 tab., 11 figs

  9. Ensuring future national gas supplies. High stakes for research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojey, A.

    1996-01-01

    A considerable increase in natural gas demand has been forecast for the coming years. Present-day supply sources will be unable to cover the growing demand in Europe and new suppliers will need to be called on more and more. Diversifying to new supply sources will entail heavy investments and is bound to mean rising costs. Technical progress is necessary to reduce costs, while protecting the environment and providing improved safety conditions. Innovative solutions in the areas of production, processing, transportation and chemical conversion should in the future widen the options and outlets available to operators. (author)

  10. Forecasting: Canada's NGL [natural gas liquids] supply outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, A.B.

    1992-01-01

    A perspective is given on Canada's supply and demand balance of ethane, propane, and butane, and Canada's participation in meeting the expected increases in United States import requirements. Increases in Canadian natural gas liquids (NGL) supply depends on increases in natural gas production. Since new production (except for the Shell Caroline gas discovery) is tending to have lower yields of liquids, NGL supply will not increase as much as the increase in natural gas production. Nearly 50% of Canadian NGLs are produced in straddle plants located at the inlet of gas transmission lines. Surpluses of ethane and high capital costs means that new straddle plants will not be built in the near future, but expansions of existing plants will occur to maximize propane and butane production. The potential ethane supply will increase, notably from the Shell Caroline project. The primary market for ethane in Canada is the Alberta petrochemical industry, and a new ethylene plant to be started up in 1994 will increase demand. The use of ethane for miscible flooding will decrease to the end of the decade. Propane production is expected to increase to a total of 180,000 bbl/d by 2000; demand growth in traditional markets such as heating and cooking is expected to be marginal, and the petrochemical sector is expected to show the largest growth in propane demand. The use of butane for producing methyl tertiary butyl ether is expected to increase butane demand for the rest of the decade. Exports of NGL to the USA are largely via the Cochin pipeline system. Modest increases in NGL exports are expected. A number of gas pipeline projects are at various stages of planning, and completion of these projects would enable an increase in Canadian exports. 8 figs

  11. Steam coal trade: demand, supply and prices to 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-04-01

    This report on the international seaborne steam coal market was prepared using an electricity generation model developed for each coal-importing country, with the aid of WEFA Energy's power station database. The report contains chapters on: import demand forecasting methodology; orimulsion (environmental considerations and market potential); Scandinavia; North West Europe; British Isles; South West Europe; Eastern Europe; Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa; Asia; Latin America; North America; world steam coal demand summary; trade and price forecasting methodology; base case forecast; shipping rates; import demand; export supply and foreign exchange rates.

  12. Co-evolution of demand and supply under competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, B.; Kok, de A.G.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we derive strategies to enforce dominance in a business-to-consumer market with heterogeneous, competing products, while the market segmentation evolves through interaction of demand and supply. By using evolutionary economic notions, we extend operations management studies on

  13. The Supply and Demand for College Educated Labor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nollen, Stanley D.

    In this study a model for the supply of college educated labor is developed from human capital theory. A demand model is added, derived from neoclassical production function theory. Empirical estimates are made for white males and white females, using cross-sectional data on states of the U.S., 1960-70. In human capital theory, education is an…

  14. Information system design for demand-driven supply networks

    OpenAIRE

    Selk, Bernhard

    2004-01-01

    Information system design for demand-driven supply networks : integrating CRM & SCM / B. Selk, K. Turowski, C. Winnewisser. - In: EIS : Fourth International ICSC Symposium on Engineering of Intelligent Systems, EIS 2004. [Elektronische Ressource]. - Millet, Alberta : ICSC Interdisciplinary Research Canada, 2004. - 8 S. auf CD-ROM

  15. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims to forecast the long term behavior of tourist arrivals and analyze the gap between supply and demand for the hotel/accommodation sector of the city of Addis Ababa. It also intends to provide vital information in regards to the sparse knowledge in the subject of forecasting tourist arrivals in Ethiopia.

  16. Oklahoma Study of Educator Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Levin, Jesse

    2015-01-01

    In June 2014, the Oklahoma State Regents of Higher Education (OSRHE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct a study to better understand both historical and future predicted trends of educator supply and demand across Oklahoma. OSRHE commissioned the study in partnership with the Oklahoma Commission for Teacher Preparation…

  17. Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

    2015-01-01

    In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

  18. Using Supply, Demand, and the Cournot Model to Understand Corruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Marc D.

    2007-01-01

    The author combines the supply and demand model of taxes with a Cournot model of bribe takers to develop a simple and useful framework for understanding the effect of corruption on economic activity. There are many examples of corruption in both developed and developing countries. Because corruption decreases the level of economic activity and…

  19. Teacher Supply and Demand: Issues in Northern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitchenham, Andrew; Chasteauneuf, Colin

    2010-01-01

    This two-year study (2007-2009), which examined teacher supply and demand issues in northern Canada--Fort Nelson School District (BC), the Fort Vermilion School Division (AB), the Yukon Department of Education (YK), and the Yellowknife School District (NWT)--comprised three research objectives: (a) to ascertain in which subject areas acute and…

  20. Ecosystem service markets 101: supply and demand for nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhonda Mazza; Jeff Kline; Trista Patterson

    2012-01-01

    Establishing markets for ecosystem services—the benefits that nature provides, such as clean air, water, and wildlife habitat—has gained traction in some circles as a way to finance the conservation of these public goods. Market influences on supply and demand work in tandem to encourage ecosystem protection. Jeff Kline and Trista Patterson, scientists with the...

  1. State Aid and Student Performance: A Supply-Demand Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnucan, Henry W.; Zheng, Yuqing; Brehmer, Gerald

    2006-01-01

    Using a supply-demand framework, a six-equation model is specified to generate hypotheses about the relationship between state aid and student performance. Theory predicts that an increase in state or federal aid provides an incentive to decrease local funding, but that the disincentive associated with increased state aid is moderated when federal…

  2. Educator Supply and Demand in Washington State. 2004 Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashway, Larry; Maloney, Rick; Hathaway, Randy; Bryant, B. J.

    2005-01-01

    This report describes the findings of the third Educator Supply and Demand Research study in the State of Washington. The intent of these Washington studies is to provide data to inform and shape decisions and activities in the following ways: (1) Provide useful information for educational policymakers, including the legislature, the State Board…

  3. Seed yam demand and supply gap in Ghana: Implications for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examined seed yam supply and demand across four yam producing districts in Ghana. Primary data were obtained from 108 yam farmers who were selected through a multistage random sampling approach. Data collection was done through personal interviews with the use of standardised structured ...

  4. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  5. Extent of Supply of Biology Teachers Demanded in Secondary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A questionnaire titled “Demand and Supply of Biology Teachers (DSBT)” was used as the instrument for data collection which was validated and the internal consistency established using Cronbach alpha (8) reliability test method. One research question and one null hypothesis were formulated to guide the study.

  6. Demand and Supply of Teachers to Secondary Schools in Anambra ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the demand and supply of teachers to secondary schools in Anambra State of Nigeria due to school type. The survey design approach was adopted for this study. The population of the study comprised of all the secondary school principals, numbering 259 in the six education zones of Anambra State.

  7. Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-03-01

    Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

  8. Supply and Demand Mismatches in Training: Can Anything Be Done?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Claudio de Moura; de Andrade, Antonio Cabral

    1990-01-01

    Vocational training often fails to provide what employers need and students want. To correct supply/demand mismatches requires improving feedback from employers, increasing the flow of information, bringing schools closer to businesses, rewarding institutions for successful employment of graduates, and providing incentives for entrepreneurs. (SK)

  9. Petroleum labour market information supply demand analysis 2009-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-03-15

    Since 2006, the petroleum industry has been interested in collaboration to determine labour demand and supply/demand gaps for the upstream petroleum industry. In 2006, the petroleum industry experienced strong employment growth and was having difficulty finding workers. Comprehensive, up-to-date labour market information and analysis are the key foundation for addressing labour supply/demand issues. This document presented labour market information on the petroleum industry in order to inform company retention and recruitment offices; government departments involved in development of labour market policies and programs; education and training institutions; guidance counsellors, employment centres and organizations that work with youth and labour supply pools; and job seekers. Specific topics that were discussed included two industry scenarios (growth and base case) in determining the petroleum industry's medium-and long-term employment needs; labour supply/demand considerations for the industry as a whole and an industry-wide cost management; and an analysis of exploration and production, oil sands, services, and pipeline sectors to 2020. It was concluded that while new employment is not expected to lead to labour shortages within the pipeline sector, attrition due to requirements almost certainly would. In the growth scenario, it is likely the pipeline sector will be challenged by competition from the other petroleum industry sectors. tabs., figs., appendices.

  10. Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This publication provides information on the interstate pipeline companies' supply of natural gas in the United States during calendar year 1990, for use by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for regulatory purposes. It also provides information to other Government agencies, the natural gas industry, as well as policy makers, analysts, and consumers interested in current levels of interstate supplies of natural gas and trends over recent years

  11. Redesign of a supply network by considering stochastic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Camilo Paz

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the problem of redesigning a supply network of large scale by considering variability of the demand. The central problematic takes root in determining strategic decisions of closing and adjusting of capacity of some network echelons and the tactical decisions concerning to the distribution channels used for transporting products. We have formulated a deterministic Mixed Integer Linear Programming Model (MILP and a stochastic MILP model (SMILP whose objective functions are the maximization of the EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. The decisions of Network Design on stochastic model as capacities, number of warehouses in operation, material and product flows between echelons, are determined in a single stage by defining an objective function that penalizes unsatisfied demand and surplus of demand due to demand changes. The solution strategy adopted for the stochastic model is a scheme denominated as Sample Average Approximation (SAA. The model is based on the case of a Colombian company dedicated to production and marketing of foodstuffs and supplies for the bakery industry. The results show that the proposed methodology was a solid reference for decision support regarding to the supply networks redesign by considering the expected economic contribution of products and variability of the demand.

  12. Electricity and gas supplies under pressure. 2005 winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewiner, C.; David, P.; Coquet, P.

    2005-10-01

    Point of view on the demand for electricity and gas in light of European deregulation in 2005. Demand for electricity and gas by consumers and businesses soared to record highs as temperatures continued to fall steeply across Europe in January and February 2005. While unexpected seasonal trends have always had a major impact on electricity and gas supplies, this time, it occurred at a time when deregulation across all European markets is bringing new complexity notably in pricing and availability of supply. So what conclusions can be drawn from this acute market situation? Is deregulation delivering what it promised? What are the possible impacts on the business model of suppliers? What trends are we likely to observe in response to the challenges of operating in the new deregulated market place?

  13. The global uranium market: supply and demand 1992-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-06-01

    This document looks at the supply of and demand for uranium on markets worldwide and covers the years 1992 to 2010. Uranium and nuclear fuel markets have become truly global with the inclusion of fuel cycle companies from Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leading at the same time to additional supplies becoming available and new political constraints on uranium trading. This report includes new data from China, Eastern Europe and the CIS republics. As recycling plays on ever more important role, the global supply and demand balance for uranium and fuel services is altered. Prospects for nuclear power growth and for the uranium market in the next century remain uncertain. (UK)

  14. Biomass energy consumption in Nigeria: integrating demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoh, S.; Soaga, J.

    1999-01-01

    The study examined the present and future consumption of biomass energy in Nigeria. Direct consumption of fire wood for domestic purposes is the predominant form of biomass energy consumption. Charcoal plays minot roles in biomass energy supply. The current and expected demand for fuelwood is projected to increase by 399% whereas supply is expected to decrease by 17.2% between 1995 and year 2010. Resource adequacy in terms of planned supply is on the decline. Forest estates which is the only planned strategy for fuelwood and wood production is projected to decline from 6.37 million ha. in 1990 to 2.4 million ha, in year 2010. The possibilities of meeting the fuelwood demand in the future is precarious. Policy measures aimed at increasing forest estates. reduction of loss of forest lands to other uses and encouragement of private forestry are recommended

  15. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  16. Getting help from others: the effects of demand and supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Douglas A

    2014-11-01

    This article investigates whether the help with care needs that is received from others depends on the potential supply of family helpers. Data from the first round of survey data collected in the National Health and Aging Trends Study are used to create measures of whether help is received, the number of helpers, and the hours of help received. Regression analysis is used to relate these outcomes to indicators of the demand for and supply of helpers. Analyses suggest limited evidence that the receipt of help is a supply-driven phenomenon. Although the measures of child-caregiver supply are not associated with a binary indicator of help received, caregiver-supply factors are associated with the number of helpers and the total hours of help received. Findings on the total number of helpers and total hours of care have implications for the division of care labor within families and between families and nonfamily members. Foreseeable trends in the demand for and the supply of help suggest further evolution in patterns of elders' receipt of help with care needs. Even if those with needs for care continue to have their needs addressed by one or more helpers, the number of helpers, and the aggregate amount of help they provide, is likely to undergo adjustment in response to changing family patterns. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Getting Help From Others: The Effects of Demand and Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. This article investigates whether the help with care needs that is received from others depends on the potential supply of family helpers. Methods. Data from the first round of survey data collected in the National Health and Aging Trends Study are used to create measures of whether help is received, the number of helpers, and the hours of help received. Regression analysis is used to relate these outcomes to indicators of the demand for and supply of helpers. Results. Analyses suggest limited evidence that the receipt of help is a supply-driven phenomenon. Although the measures of child–caregiver supply are not associated with a binary indicator of help received, caregiver-supply factors are associated with the number of helpers and the total hours of help received. Discussion. Findings on the total number of helpers and total hours of care have implications for the division of care labor within families and between families and nonfamily members. Foreseeable trends in the demand for and the supply of help suggest further evolution in patterns of elders’ receipt of help with care needs. Even if those with needs for care continue to have their needs addressed by one or more helpers, the number of helpers, and the aggregate amount of help they provide, is likely to undergo adjustment in response to changing family patterns. PMID:25342824

  18. Norwegian gas supplies for the European market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, B.L.

    1994-01-01

    The conference paper deals with the Norwegian key role in the European gas market with increasing market shares. The supply capacity in a long-term perspective can be 65-70 bcm/year or more if export prices support the development of new and more costly gas resources. The main challenges for the Norwegian shelf are discussed. 5 figs

  19. Impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, E.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the impacts of imports, government policy and technology on future natural gas supply. Specifically, it discussed projections of natural gas supply and demand; the potential impact of imports on United States natural gas supply; the potential impacts of government policy on natural gas supply and demand; and the impact of technological innovations on natural gas supply such as coalbed methane and methane hydrate. Specific government policies that were examined included the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009; the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009; and the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act of 2009. It was concluded that the United States demand for natural gas will expand and that the impact of pending clean energy legislation is unclear. In addition, each potential future resource will face constraints and new resources may come on line in the next 20 years. figs.

  20. Mackenzie Valley Pipeline market demand, supply, and infrastructure analysis : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Co-Venturers is a consortium of petroleum companies proposing to construct a 1,400 km long, large-diameter, high-pressure natural gas transmission pipeline from the northwestern edge of the Northwest Territories to the Alberta-Northwest Territories border. The Mackenzie Valley Pipeline will bring natural gas from the Mackenzie Delta region to markets in Alberta, central and eastern Canada and the United States. Navigant Consulting Ltd. prepared this assessment of the long-term market need for natural gas produced from the Mackenzie Delta. It presents an analysis of gas demand, supply and infrastructure. Three sensitivity cases were examined, incorporating different assumptions about the initial capacity of the pipeline, potential expansion of its capacity and different levels of gas demand in Canada and the United States. The report indicates that gas markets in North America support construction of the proposed 34 million cubic metre per day pipeline in the 2009 timeframe, with possible expansion in 2015 and 2020. It also indicates that there will be enough capacity on the intra-Alberta gas transmission system to accommodate the projected deliveries of Mackenzie Delta gas. The increase in gas demand is due to an increase in residential and commercial gas consumption, electric power generation and the energy intensive bitumen extraction and processing activities in the Alberta oil sands industry. 36 tabs., 56 figs

  1. Policy implications of the GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The 1992 Edition of the GRI Baseline Projection of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand is summarized. Three broad implications concerning the future of the natural gas industry are highlighted: the residual impact of the August 1990 Gulf War on crude oil prices and the factors influencing the long-term price path, the impact of the growing number of environmental constraints on future energy use, and the effect of recent developments in gas production on future gas supply and price

  2. How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, K.

    2002-01-01

    The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

  3. Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahouli, Sondes

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  4. Re-examining uranium supply and demand: New insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahouli, Sondes, E-mail: sondes.kahouli@univ-nantes.f [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes-I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre-B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

    2011-01-15

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular , the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  5. Re-examining uranium supply and demand. New insights

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahouli, Sondes [Universite de Nantes, Laboratoire d' Economie et de Management de Nantes Atlantique (LEMNA), Institut d' Economie et de Management de Nantes - I.A.E., Chemin de la Censive du Tertre - B.P. 52231, 44322 Nantes Cedex 3 (France)

    2011-01-15

    In this paper, we derive a simultaneous system of equations which aims at analysing the uranium supply and demand. In addition to reviewing and updating previous studies dealing with the uranium market analysis, in particular, the contribution of the paper lies in putting attention to some questions which are still either controversial or unanswered. They are especially related to the controversial hypothesis of the interdependence between uranium market and other commodities markets, both, with respect to the demand side, i.e. oil and coal markets, and the supply side, i.e. gold market. The paper also casts lights on electricity and uranium price effects on uranium demand as well as on the simultaneous interdependencies that may exist between nuclear consumption and nuclear installed capacity. The model is estimated for three different time periods which takes into account the major events that have influenced the nuclear-uranium development, that is, that have constrained the growth rate of nuclear generating capacity, i.e. oil crisis and nuclear accidents. This permits to show if uranium market reaction is independent or it is correlated with specific events associated with each time periods. The model was estimated by using the 3SLS method that correct for the presence of contemporaneously error terms correlation and for the existence of simultaneity bias in the model. Main results give evidence of significant correlation between uranium price and competing fossil fuel prices. They also point-out that uranium price is significantly correlated with the supply forces where supply is significantly dependent on gold prices. Moreover, results show that the electricity prices have a significant effect on the uranium demand only in the post-1990 period, probably following the worldwide electricity prices increasing trend. Further, our estimations show that uranium demand is significantly correlated with uranium price only in the period of nuclear major expansion. As

  6. Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

    2016-01-01

    The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

  7. Teacher Supply and Demand: Surprises from Primary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Wayne

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available An investigation of primary research studies on public school teacher supply and demand revealed four surprises. Projections show that enrollments are leveling off. Relatedly, annual hiring increases should be only about two or three percent over the next few years. Results from studies of teacher attrition also yield unexpected results. Excluding retirements, only about one in 20 teachers leaves each year, and the novice teachers who quit mainly cite personal and family reasons, not job dissatisfaction. Each of these findings broadens policy makers' options for teacher supply.

  8. Regulation of replication fork progression through histone supply and demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Anja; Corpet, Armelle; Cook, Adam J L

    2007-01-01

    DNA replication in eukaryotes requires nucleosome disruption ahead of the replication fork and reassembly behind. An unresolved issue concerns how histone dynamics are coordinated with fork progression to maintain chromosomal stability. Here, we characterize a complex in which the human histone c...... progression and histone supply and demand.......1 chaperone function, histone supply, and replicative unwinding of DNA in chromatin. We propose that Asf1, as a histone acceptor and donor, handles parental and new histones at the replication fork via an Asf1-(H3-H4)-MCM2-7 intermediate and thus provides a means to fine-tune replication fork...

  9. 1993 US petroleum engineering manpower supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wattenbarger, R.A.; Morriss, S.

    1994-01-01

    Each year, the SPE Manpower Committee reports on the results of petroleum engineering manpower supply and demand surveys to inform SPE members about hiring patterns of engineers in the petroleum industry and the supply of graduates from US petroleum engineering schools. The SPE Manpower Committee's US surveys show that large companies will decrease their hiring while small companies and service companies will increase their hiring of engineers. During 1992--93, only about 65% of graduating petroleum engineering students were known to have jobs. Another finding is that, overall, new US SPE membership is decreasing while non-US membership is increasing

  10. Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, H. G. M.

    1978-01-01

    A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

  11. The prospects for oil prices, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Fathi, S.A.

    1991-01-01

    The major factors that have influenced price developments are briefly discussed. The future course of oil prices and the supply/demand fundamentals that are likely to influence them will be reviewed in the light of OPEC producers' quest for stability in the market and the maintenance of the role of oil in the energy spectrum. The environment and climate change debate is likely to influence development in the energy and oil markets for a long time to come. Its impact on oil demand is thus discussed, together with its implication for oil prices. (author)

  12. A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villada, Juan; Olaya, Yris

    2013-01-01

    Achieving security of gas supply implies diversifying gas sources, while having enough supply, transportation, and storage capacity to meet demand peaks and supply interruptions. Devising a strategy for securing gas supply is not straightforward because gas supply depends on complex interactions of production, demand and infrastructure, and it is exposed to economic, regulatory, political, environmental and technical risks. To address this complexity, we propose a simulation approach that replicates the structure of the gas supply chain, including transportation constraints and demand fluctuations. We build and calibrate a computer model for the Colombian gas sector, and run the model to assess the impact of expanding transportation capacity and increasing market flexibility on the security of supply. Our analysis focuses on the operation and planned and proposed expansions of the transportation infrastructure because adequate regulation and development of this infrastructure can contribute to increase the security of supply in the gas sector. We find that proposed import facilities, specifically LNG import terminals at Buenaventura, increase system's security under the current market structure. - Highlights: ► We build a simulation model for analyzing natural gas trade in Colombia. ► The model captures the structure of the gas network and on market rules. ► We simulate investment decisions to increase short-term security of supply. ► Securing supply would need LNG imports and expansion of pipeline capacity.

  13. Long term contracts in portfolios of gas supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper promotes the idea of long-term contracting for natural gas local distributors and utilities. It presents a brief history of how the spot-market developed and the effects spot-marketing can have in times of supply shortages. This has also resulted in a drastic decrease in exploration and development in the gas industry as gas supplies have exceeding demand, driving the prices down. The paper proposes several methods to restabilize the long-term contracting of gas by considering volume and pricing flexibility. Some brief discussions of industry-wide statistics are presented to show reserve replacement costs which would be needed to preserve the industry in a profit-making situation

  14. Demand for power in Calcutta Electricity Supply Corporation area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, N

    1980-07-01

    Since the early 1970's there has been a continuous crisis of power supply to the Calcutta industrial region. Historical records show that only the peak demand has grown and has a potential for growth, which, with an unchanging base demand, results in a low load factor and consequently inefficient power system operation. Attempts to shift industrial loads by operating industrial plants during non-peak hours are described. Adverse economic conditions eliminated the need for extra working shifts. It is concluded that the power system supplying the Calcutta region has an insufficient peak load generating capacity and an uneconomic load curve and that stricter hourly schedules for power use by industries should be adhered to in order to minimize these problems. (LCL)

  15. Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung Jeung; Park, Nam Hee; Lee, Kun Sei; Chee, Hyun Keun; Sim, Sung Bo; Kim, Myo Jeong; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myunghwa; Park, Choon Seon

    2016-12-01

    While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors

  16. Projections of Demand for Cardiovascular Surgery and Supply of Surgeons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Jeung Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time

  17. Mid-1970's imbalance in zircon supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gordon, D.V.; Collins, R.E.

    1975-01-01

    Mining and the historical development of the zircon market are briefly reviewed. Causes of the fluctuations in the zircon demand and supply and in the price are discussed. Possible adjustments (such as substitution of other materials in the steel foundry) are listed. Future uses of zircon will probably be limited to those which can justify high prices and those for which there are no substitutes. (DLC)

  18. An update on the MTBE supply and demand picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elkins, D.R.

    1993-01-01

    The initial Clean Air Act to establish emissions standards for automobiles and light-duty trucks was passed in 1966. It was modified in 1970 and again in 1977. In 1990 it was amended to present a 20 year plan to achieve cleaner air through fuel composition and vehicle design. This paper discusses the supply and demand within the US of methyl tertiary butyl ether as an oxygenated fuel additive to gasoline to help control the ozone pollution problem

  19. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  20. Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

    1997-01-01

    Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

  1. New information on world uranium resource, production, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jianguo; Meng Jin

    2006-01-01

    New information on world uranium resource, production, supply and demand is introduced. Up to now, explored uranium resources at production cost < USD 40/kg U has 2523257 t uranium; production cost < USD 80/kg U has 5911514 t uranium; production cost < USD130/kg U has 11280488 t uranium; and cost range unassigned has 3102000 t uranium. At moment, the demand uranium of each year is about 67000 t U. After 2020, world uranium demand will rise well above 100000 t per annum with sharp revival of nuclear power plants. With three kinds of economic growth the cumulative requirement of the uranium in low demand case, middle demand case and high demand case from 2000 to 2050 is 3390000, 5394100 and 7577300 t respectively. In the world market uranium price rises from 20 years lowest 18.2 USD/kg U to 75.4 USD/kg U. In 2003, global uranium product is about 35385 t U, and 2004, global uranium product is about 40475 t U. In 2004's world uranium production underground mining, open pit, in situ, by product, and combination account for 39%, 27%, 19%, 11% and 4% respectively. (authors)

  2. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  3. Right ventricular oxygen supply/demand balance in exercising dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, B J; Bian, X; Gwirtz, P A; Setty, S; Downey, H F

    2001-08-01

    This is the first investigation of right ventricular (RV) myocardial oxygen supply/demand balance in a conscious animal. A novel technique developed in our laboratory was used to collect right coronary (RC) venous blood samples from seven instrumented, conscious dogs at rest and during graded treadmill exercise. Contributions of the RV oxygen extraction reserve and the RC flow reserve to exercise-induced increases in RV oxygen demand were measured. Strenuous exercise caused a 269% increase in RV oxygen consumption. Expanded arteriovenous oxygen content difference (A-V(Delta)O2) provided 58% of this increase in oxygen demand, and increased RC blood flow (RCBF) provided 42%. At less strenuous exercise, expanded A-V(Delta)O2 provided 60-80% of the required oxygen, and increases in RCBF were small and driven by increased aortic pressure. RC resistance fell only at strenuous exercise after the extraction reserve had been mobilized. Thus RC resistance was unaffected by large decreases in RC venous PO2 until an apparent threshold at 20 mmHg was reached. Comparisons of RV findings with published left ventricular data from exercising dogs demonstrated that increased O2 demand of the left ventricle is met primarily by increasing coronary flow, whereas increased O2 extraction makes a greater contribution to RV O2 supply.

  4. Econophysics of a ranked demand and supply resource allocation problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priel, Avner; Tamir, Boaz

    2018-01-01

    We present a two sided resource allocation problem, between demands and supplies, where both parties are ranked. For example, in Big Data problems where a set of different computational tasks is divided between a set of computers each with its own resources, or between employees and employers where both parties are ranked, the employees by their fitness and the employers by their package benefits. The allocation process can be viewed as a repeated game where in each iteration the strategy is decided by a meta-rule, based on the ranks of both parties and the results of the previous games. We show the existence of a phase transition between an absorbing state, where all demands are satisfied, and an active one where part of the demands are always left unsatisfied. The phase transition is governed by the ratio between supplies and demand. In a job allocation problem we find positive correlation between the rank of the workers and the rank of the factories; higher rank workers are usually allocated to higher ranked factories. These all suggest global emergent properties stemming from local variables. To demonstrate the global versus local relations, we introduce a local inertial force that increases the rank of employees in proportion to their persistence time in the same factory. We show that such a local force induces non trivial global effects, mostly to benefit the lower ranked employees.

  5. Robust Optimization on Regional WCO-for-Biodiesel Supply Chain under Supply and Demand Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to design a robust waste cooking oil- (WCO- for-biodiesel supply chain under WCO supply and price as well as biodiesel demand and price uncertainties, so as to improve biorefineries’ ability to cope with the poor environment. A regional supply chain is firstly introduced based on the biggest WCO-for-biodiesel company in Changzhou, Jiangsu province, and it comprises three components: WCO supplier, biorefinery, and demand zone. And then a robust mixed integer linear model with multiple objectives (economic, environmental, and social objectives is proposed for both biorefinery location and transportation plans. After that, a heuristic algorithm based on genetic algorithm is proposed to solve this model. Finally, the 27 cities in Yangtze River delta are adopted to verify the proposed models and methods, and the sustainability and robustness of biodiesel supply are discussed.

  6. Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011-2036.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, Ernest; Kiely, Patricia M; Arunachalam, Dharma

    2015-05-01

    The effective size of the optometric workforce is dependent on graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration and is influenced by age, gender and working hours of optometrists. This paper presents modelling results of the relationship between the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected demand for optometric services for the period 2011 to 2036. Nine hypothetical optometric supply-side and demand-side scenarios are presented. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2011 census were projected over a 25-year period, accounting for factors such as concordance with Health Workforce Australia figures for registered optometrists in Australia in 2011, ageing, attrition, hours worked, new graduates and immigration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2036 using nine different scenarios. It was estimated that there would be a surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full-time optometrists (EFTO) in 2036 for the highest service demand scenario of 13.8 million Medicare services, where 21 hours of a 38-hour week per EFTO were allowed for the provision of optometric services under Medicare. Substantial surpluses were predicted in all states and territories except Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory where predicted supply was within six EFTO of predicted demand. Projections using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration, new graduates and 21 hours per EFTO per week available for Medicare services indicate that in 2036, there will be excess optometrists in relation to projected demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased by 10 or 20 per cent. Substantially greater excesses result if each EFTO has 28 or 35 hours per week available for Medicare

  7. CRISP. Market-oriented online supply-demand matching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamphuis, I.G.; Kester, J.C.P.; Carlsson, P; Akkermans, H.

    2004-04-01

    Current power distribution systems are operated in a top-down manner. Power production control and price formation take place on a central level on the basis of relatively static data from a data collection and dispatching network with a limited scope and granularity. When incorporating a more considerable fraction of small-scale producers on the basis of, for instance, renewable energy, operation of the distribution grid requires more data to be collected from a more extensive information and data communication network. Furthermore, increased local flows, in the form of two-way communication with distributed computation techniques, enable a more dynamic adaptation in power supply and demand patterns paving the way to a flexible way of embedding of ill-predictable supply of some types of renewable energy sources. DSM-programs have been in use in the utility sector for years now. In this document, first, current Demand Side Management (DSM) and Demand Response Resource (DRR) techniques are discussed; then, supply side management especially in a DG (Distributed Generation) context is treated. A framework of novel concepts and possible technology directions is presented subsequently and some preliminary scenarios are shown to illustrate these concepts. An overview of more flexible supply and demand matching schemes is given essentially based on four distinct types of SDM clusters. It appears, that it is possible to fulfil requirements for these distributed environments in terms of needed information and communication technology, ICT, if these are paralleled with the expected future penetration of ever-smaller scale data-exchange networks at power customer sites. Agent technology using algorithms from micro-economic market theory offers a promising possibility for managing the complexity of price formation and supply demand matching in these fine-grained bottom-up control distribution networks. Implication of these technical developments in terms of market and business

  8. Demand, supply and fuel prices forecast to the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    This paper summarizes the Western European energy situation, and deals with specific aspects under the headings: European oil prices fall until 1987; prospects for oil recovery; transport sector holds oil demand up as oil demand loses favour in other sectors; upstream uncertainties; continued slackness of European natural gas market poses threat to oil; problems for European coal industry; dramatic growth in nuclear power; breeder reactors to play minimal role; PWRs will remain dominant. The situation in individual countries - Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain - is analysed. (U.K.)

  9. PETROBRAS Northeast gas security of supply study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faertes, Denise; Heil, Luciana; Saker, Leonardo; Vieira, Flavia; Risi, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Domingues, Joaquim; Alvarenga, Tobias; Mussel, Patricia [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present the study developed jointly by PETROBRAS Gas and Power Department and Det Norske Veritas (Brazil and United Kingdom office). The study was carried out with the objective of evaluating the security of supply 2009 PETROBRAS Northeast gas network. This network provides gas to thermo plants, to vehicles and to industrial and residential consumers. The occurrence of contract shortfalls implies on heavy fines for the suppliers. To provide best in class analysis, state of the art software was used in order to count on powerful tools to model the gas supply system and to quantify the availability and the efficiency of the overall network and of its individual components. It also provides the prioritization of investment, based on cost benefit analysis, and as a by-product, contingency plans that were developed, considering the identified failure scenarios. (author)

  10. Supply chain coordination under retail competition and advertising dependent demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Mirzaee

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Supply chain coordination as an effective tool plays an important role in improving supply chain performance. In this article, a two-level supply chain with one manufacturer and two retailers is considered. The order quantity that retailers are faced with depends on the amount of advertisements and both retailers compete with each other on advertising. The Stackelberg game is established between manufacturer and retailers such that the manufacturer and the retailers play the leader and the follower roles, respectively. First, the manufacturer determines the wholesale prices for retailers and instead, the retailers determine the order quantity and advertising level, simultaneously. The manufacturer produces one kind of product and delivers it to retailers before the beginning of selling season. Retailers can affect the order quantity regarding the demand dependency on advertising level through the incurred costs from the advertising. In this paper, we show that we can achieve the desirable supply chain coordination through using combined quantity discount and advertising cost sharing contracts. We also consider the win-win situation for all the members of the supply chain.

  11. Kalimantan field development hikes gas supply for LNG export

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suharmoko, G.R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the development of Tambora and Tunu gas fields in Kalimantan that have increased available gas supply for the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Indonesia. The demand for LNG is increasing in the energy thirsty Far East market. And Indonesia, the world's largest exporter, is keeping pace by expanding the Bontang liquefaction plant in East Kalimantan. A fifth train, with a capacity of around 2.5 million tons/year, began operating in January 1990. Start-up of a sixth train, of identical capacity, is planned for January 1994. The Bontang plant is operated by PT Badak on behalf of Pertamina, the Indonesian state oil and gas mining company. The feed to the fifth train comes primarily from the first-phase development of Total Indonesie's two gas fields, Tambora and Tunu. The sixth train will be fed by a second-phase development of the Tunu field

  12. 42 CFR 84.149 - Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Type C supplied-air respirator, demand and pressure demand class; minimum requirements. 84.149 Section 84.149 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT... OF RESPIRATORY PROTECTIVE DEVICES Supplied-Air Respirators § 84.149 Type C supplied-air respirator...

  13. Optimal supply and demand investments in municipal energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolfsman, Bjoern

    2004-01-01

    In many municipalities, there are district heating networks, which are quite commonly supplied by combined heat and power plants (CHP). A district heating network contains buildings of different types. In this paper, one such municipal energy system is analysed. In order to provide space heating and domestic hot water, investments could be made on the supply side in power plants, or on the demand side in the buildings, for example in the form of extra wall insulation. The electricity from the CHP plants is supplied to the municipality but can also be sold to the electricity market, and electricity can, of course, also be bought from the market. The variation in price on the spot market over any given day is significant. The need for district heat in the building stock also varies, for example due to climatic conditions. The energy system in the case study is analysed with a mixed integer linear programming model. The model has 3 h time steps in order to reflect diurnal variations, and an entire year is analysed. A case study is presented for the city of Linkoeping in Sweden. On the demand side, the options are: extra wall insulation, extra attic insulation and better types of windows. The building stock is divided into nine categories

  14. The balance of supply and demand 1978-1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    This paper sets out the likely balance of uranium supply and demand to 1990 for the world outside the communist area as foreseen at the beginning of 1979. It examines a number of factors, including those arising within the fuel cycle itself which might shift the balance significantly one way or the other. The report does not discuss the effect of possible price trends. Demand is calculated in two ways. The first relates to reactor fuel requirements, estimated from assumed values for installed nuclear capacity. The second is based on forecasts of enrichment capacity, and the corresponding quantities of uranium required to keep the enrichment plants working at full capacity. Regarding supply, the study examines a considerable number of factors which provide possible sources of production flexibility or which might act as constraints. Supply estimates are presented in two ways - a lower figure which represents a realistic estimate of the likely level of production; and an upper figure which indicates the maximum production capacity which could be achieved, given economic conditions capable of justifying the energetic pursuit of all projected expansion programmes and known potential new developments. The particular importance of developments in the U.S.A., as the world's largest uranium producer, is emphasised. (author)

  15. Huge supply/demand increases seen in oxygenate forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhoades, A.K.

    1992-01-01

    Industry originally projected that oxygenate supply would not be able to meet the demand created by U.S. oxygenated and reformulated gasoline mandates. This paper reports that those projections have been reserved in two recent industry reports - one from Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI) and one from Pace Consultants Inc. Pace's report, by Paulo Nery and Nathan Sims, predicts gasoline and oxygenates demand, and examines the role ethanol may play in changing those values. CMAI's report estimates captive supply and demand of butylenes and oxygenates. Oxygenates are entering the domestic gasoline market this winter as a result of the 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is the most important oxygenate, although ethanol, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME) are gathering market strength. Ethanol's strength is derived from President Bush's ruling granting a waiver to reformulated gasoline containing ethanol. This waiver allows ethanol blends to have a vapor pressure 1 psi higher than other types of gasoline

  16. Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

    2017-01-01

    Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

  17. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of expansion of production are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data base on which commercial judgements have to be made is stressed. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making, and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are illustrated

  18. Industrial and commercial considerations affecting future uranium supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostuik, J.

    1977-01-01

    The paper examines the available evidence relating to the balance of supply and demand for uranium, with particular reference to factors which are likely to affect commercial decisions. The physical constraints limiting the rate of production expansion are examined, both in the short term, based on known ore-bodies, and in the longer term, as a result of exploration. The scale of the uncertainties in estimated demand are stressed, and the consequential need for a determined effort to improve the data-base on which commercial judgements have to be made. The powerful influences which governmental actions can have on commercial decision-making and on the freedom to produce and export uranium, are mentioned. (author)

  19. EVOLUTION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WHEAT IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana-Elena MARIN

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to present the evolution of supply demand and of wheat in Romanian market. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute of Statistics and European Statistics (Eurostat. The data have been processed into the following indicators: cultivated surfaces, obtained production, consumption per capita. Wheat production is correlated with seeding surface, but, sometimes paradoxes appear, where even if the cultivated surface is large the production is low. During the analyzed period, cultivated surfaces remained constantly; the production has continuously increased, so that in the year 2013 there are 7,383 million tonnes of wheat in Romania. As a conclusion, Romania is able to support domestic demand for wheat and can also export a significant amount of this grain.

  20. Supply and demand of diesel engine for 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-03-01

    This document takes stock on the diesel engine situation in France, in order to define the future policy for 2010. The first part is a state of the art concerning the description and characteristics of the diesel, the diesel production in refineries, the biofuels, the supply and demand. The second part details the evolutions, the investments and the fiscality impacts. The last part concludes on the necessity of a fiscal neutrality and on the fact that no new refinery is justified in France. It proposes different scenario of the imports evolution. (A.L.B.)

  1. World uranium supply and demand: The changing market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Underhill, D.H.; Mueller Kahle, E.

    1993-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of uranium supply and demand under the current conditions of this developing global market. While an analysis is possible, it should be borne in mind that available information is not always complete under conditions of major reorganization, and consequently some speculative assessment is required. Therefore, although this article is based on the latest information available, it should be considered as background material for further analysis rather than as an accurate forecast for the future. The level of uncertainty is particularly high regarding the future availability of nuclear materials produced in newly independent States emerging from the former Soviet Union

  2. Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2001-2031.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, Patricia M; Healy, Ernest; Horton, Peregrine; Chakman, Joseph

    2008-07-01

    Major influences on health workforce supply include factors such as graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration. This report presents a model of the relationship of the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected optometric service demand for the period 2001 to 2031. Two contrasting hypothetical optometric supply-side scenarios are presented. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2001 census were projected over a 30-year period, accounting for factors such as ageing, attrition, new graduates and migration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2031. The projections indicated that in 2031, there would be 4,072 equivalent full-time optometrists, an excess of 6.9 per cent compared with demand and that of these 38 per cent would be female. Application of a 'high' growth scenario, based on increases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours by females and graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected oversupply of up to 30 per cent. Use of a 'low' growth scenario, based on decreases in the proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, graduate and immigrant numbers, resulted in a projected undersupply of at least 21.5 per cent. Projected numbers of optometrists using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration and new graduates indicate that in 2031, there will be adequate numbers of optometrists to meet the demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased slightly. The adequacy of projected numbers varies considerably if alterations are made to the weighting factors using 'high' and 'low' growth scenarios.

  3. What role for LNG in Europe? Outlook for supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valais, M.; Roze, J.

    1992-01-01

    The current development of natural gas in Europe reflects all the technical, economic, environmental or political factors that make it one of the best energy options for the future. However, the sustained expansion of its demand must cope with a decline in domestic production in most European countries, which is resulting in a sharp rise in imports. Furthermore, because of the large volumes required, traditional exporters by pipeline to European markets could progressively come up against limits in the growth of the amounts they can supply. LNG could thus play an increasing role in the European gas balance. Europe is geographically well situated in relation to potential LNG exporting countries. The abundance of the resources and the regional diversity of these countries will be an additional guarantee of the reliability of supplies. However, any new projects can be carried out only under economic conditions that are viable for the gas industry and compatible with the development of European markets

  4. The long-term forecast of Taiwan's energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yophy; Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey; Peng, Chieh-Yu

    2011-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan's lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation's pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan's energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring 'business-as-usual' policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan's three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. - Research highlights: → The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. → Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. → The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. → Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. → Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.

  5. 46 CFR 197.340 - Breathing gas supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Breathing gas supply. 197.340 Section 197.340 Shipping... GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Equipment § 197.340 Breathing gas supply. (a) A primary breathing gas supply for surface-supplied diving must be sufficient to support the following for the...

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  7. Gas supplies of interstate natural gas pipeline companies, 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This publication provides information on the total reserves, production, and deliverability capabilities of the 64 interstate pipeline companies required to file the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Form 15, ''Interstate Pipeline's Annual Report of Gas Supply.'' Data reported on this form are not considered to be confidential. This publication is the 29th in a series of annual reports on the total gas supplies of interstate pipeline companies since the inception of individual company reports to the Federal Power Commission (FPC) in 1964 for report year 1963

  8. Management of natural gas supply reliability and modulation in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupas, D.

    1995-01-01

    France imports most of its gas, and demand for gas varies considerably between summer and winter. Faced with insufficient flexibility in its supply contracts to deal with the gas balance, Gaz de France decided to develop a policy based on combined and consistent use of a large-scale underground storage system, a suspendable clientele, and a rate policy to maintain the balance. It was the integrated character of the company that makes it possible to optimize the arrangement of these adjustment facilities. Most of the seasonal modulation is taken up by underground storage in water tables, and the peak cold complement comes from salt dome storage. Underground storage also contributes, as does the suspendable clientele, to supply reliability, with a specific quality due to their speed and versatility of use. The prime purpose of the suspendable clientele portfolio is rather to respond to supply failures, but the demand too, during periods of extreme cold, is reduced by curtailing deliveries whose contractual suspension notice time is short. (author). 3 figs

  9. Global Supply and Demand of Opioids for Pain Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunnumpurath, Sreekumar; Julien, Natasha; Kodumudi, Gopal; Kunnumpurath, Anamika; Kodumudi, Vijay; Vadivelu, Nalini

    2018-04-04

    The goal of this review is to evaluate the global supply and demand of opioids used for pain management and discuss how it relates to the utilization of opioids around the world. The purpose of the review is also to determine the factors that contribute to inappropriate pain management. The total global production of opium for opioid manufacturing is enough to supply the growing global demands. However, licit opioids are only consumed by 20% of the world population. Most people throughout the world had no access to opioid analgesics for pain relief in case of need. Opioid misuse and abuse is not only a phenomena plague by the USA but globally across many countries. Many countries have a lack of availability of opioids, contributing factors being strict government regulations limiting access, lack of knowledge of the efficacy of opioid analgesics in treating acute and chronic pain and palliative care, and the stigma that opioids are highly addictive. For the countries in which opioids are readily available and prescribed heavily, diversion, misuse, abuse, and the resurgence of heroin have become problems leading to morbidity and mortality. It is pertinent to find a balance between having opioids accessible to patients in need, with ensuring that opioids are regulated along with other illicit drugs to decrease abuse potential.

  10. Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Scott; Finlay, Keith

    2016-10-01

    Successful supply-side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets ('precursor control') can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity-adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre-treatment levels within 6-12 months, demonstrating the short-term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is -0.13 to -0.21 for self-admitted drug treatment admissions and between -0.24 and -0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross-price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. How the selfish brain organizes its supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitze, Britta; Hubold, Christian; van Dyken, Regina; Schlichting, Kristin; Lehnert, Hendrik; Entringer, Sonja; Peters, Achim

    2010-01-01

    During acute mental stress, the energy supply to the human brain increases by 12%. To determine how the brain controls this demand for energy, 40 healthy young men participated in two sessions (stress induced by the Trier Social Stress Test and non-stress intervention). Subjects were randomly assigned to four different experimental groups according to the energy provided during or after stress intervention (rich buffet, meager salad, dextrose-infusion and lactate-infusion). Blood samples were frequently taken and subjects rated their autonomic and neuroglycopenic symptoms by standard questionnaires. We found that stress increased carbohydrate intake from a rich buffet by 34 g (from 149 +/- 13 g in the non-stress session to 183 +/- 16 g in the stress session; P 4.0 +/- 1.3 vs. 39.8 +/- 7.7 pmol/l; P supply (regardless of its character, i.e., rich buffet or energy infusions) was shown to counteract a neuroglycopenic state that developed during stress. Exogenous energy did not dampen the sympatho-adrenal stress-responses. We conclude that the brain under stressful conditions demands for energy from the body by using a mechanism, which we refer to as "cerebral insulin suppression" and in so doing it can satisfy its excessive needs.

  12. Eastern markets : is there enough demand for new supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holder, J.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of the energy market's ability to support pipeline expansion projects was discussed. Pipeline expansion is a natural corollary of deregulation. Since expansion and competition in the natural gas industry go hand in hand, pipeline expansion is inevitable, imperative and in the longer-term is in the best interest of the end use gas consumer. The effect of pipeline expansion on local distribution companies (LDCs) such as Consumers Gas which serves eastern Canadian markets was also described. It was explained that LDCs are being transformed by deregulation which has opened the market to direct purchasing, meaning that end-users (including residential customers) can buy their natural gas through various brokers, marketers and producers. Some of the other factors affecting the demand for natural gas such as convergence, deregulation, the environment, and their impact were also discussed. It was suggested that in the near-term there is a possibility of over-construction of pipeline capacity, resulting in the demise of some of the projects. Even in the longer-term, only the pipelines that are willing to differentiate themselves from other pipelines by providing more customer choice, more service options and better service, will prosper. Market and regulatory advantage can also be gained by quickly reacting to changing market conditions through expansion of existing pipelines in stages via compression and looping. In pipeline construction timing is critical

  13. Comparative life cycle assessment of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Henning; Hartmann, Kilian; Bühle, Lutz; Wachendorf, Michael

    2015-03-01

    The environmental performance of biogas plant configurations for a demand - oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation is comparatively assessed in this study. Those configurations indicate an increased energy demand to operate the operational enhancements compared to conventional biogas plants supplying biogas for baseload power generation. However, findings show that in contrast to an alternative supply of power generators with natural gas, biogas supplied on demand by adapted biogas plant configurations saves greenhouse gas emissions by 54-65 g CO(2-eq) MJ(-1) and primary energy by about 1.17 MJ MJ(-1). In this regard, configurations with flexible biogas production profit from reduced biogas storage requirements and achieve higher savings compared to configurations with continuous biogas production. Using thicker biogas storage sheeting material reduces the methane permeability of up to 6m(3) d(-1) which equals a reduction of 8% of the configuration's total methane emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

    2011-01-01

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  15. Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

    2011-11-15

    Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

  16. Description of the global petroleum supply and demand outlook updated for the 1993 edition of the GRI baseline projection of US energy supply and demand, December 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dreyfus, D.A.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-12-01

    Strategic planning of the research and development program carried out by Gas Research Institute (GRI) is supported by an annual GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand. Because petroleum products compete in a wide variety of energy uses, oil prices serve as a market clearing force for the entire energy system. A significant portion of the U.S. petroleum supply is imported, and the price of crude oil to U.S. refiners is determined by the international oil trade. Any projection of the U.S. energy situation, therefore, requires the evaluation of the global oil market and the impact of oil price changes on the supply/demand balances of market participants. The 1992 edition of the projection completed in August 1991 assumed that in the aftermath of the war in the Middle East the fundamentals of oil trade would reassert their influence. This did indeed occur and with astonishing speed. In the face of this outlook, GRI has revised its 1993 oil price track downward

  17. Entanglement Between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Mirta B.; Nadal, Jean-Pierre; Phan, Denis; Semeshenko, Viktoriya

    2013-05-01

    Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined `positive externalities' or `bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one—in which case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected, leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social sciences by T.C. Schelling in the 70's.

  18. More countries in recession: Oil supply looking for demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Crude oil prices fell dramatically during the fourth quarter of 1992. Refiners are reevaluating their positions to adjust to low demand growth worldwide. The only bright spot appears to be the United States' emergence from its economic recession. However, Japan and Germany are experiencing their own economic recessions, and crude oil supplies show no sign of tightening. Crude oil futures prices have fallen by more than 15% as of January 8, 1993 compared to October 1, 1992. Although the American Petroleum Institute (API) found increases in oil demand during October and November 1992, the increases are attributed to colder weather and the weak 1991 demand that was used for comparison. This issue identifies current factors at work affecting U.S. refining margins and product values, and offers a first quarter 1993 outlook. All data featured in graphs and text come from the Energy detente Refinery Netback Data Series published in each issue, in which gasoline and diesel No. 2 are Lundberg Survey unbranded racks instead of spot quotations. Margins are apparent deltas only and do not reflect actual profits for any individual operation

  19. Gas prices in the UK: markets and insecurity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, Professor P. Wright argues that the high and volatile gas price experienced by UK consumers over the last 3 years are the result of the extend of liberalization in the UK - which has made UK prices much more sensitive to insecurities of supply. Businesses pay the cost of this, straightaway, while the strategies which gas companies have used to respond to heightened price risks means domestic consumers also bear the cost of higher supply-markups. The prospect of high levels of demand in bad winters then just adds to price risk and its associated costs. The implication of this analysis is that it is illogical for the UK's regulator and government to blame the UK's high prices on the slow progress of liberalization in the rest of Europe - greater liberalization in Europe might simply replicate the UK's price difficulties throughout Europe

  20. Gas prices in the UK: markets and insecurity of supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this article Professor Philip Wright argues that the high and volatile gas prices experienced by UK consumers over the last 3 years are the result of the extent of liberalization in the UK which has made UK prices much more sensitive to insecurities of supply. Businesses pay the cost of this, straightaway, while the strategies which gas companies have used to respond to heightened price risks means domestic consumers also bear the cost of higher supply-markups. The prospect of high levels of demand in bad winters then just adds to price risk and its associated costs. The implication of this analysis is that it is illogical for the UK's regulator and government to blame the UK's high prices on the slow progress of liberalization in the rest of Europe - greater liberalization in Europe might simply replicate the UK's price difficulties throughout Europe. (author)

  1. A demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalton, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the demand/supply and price outlook for electricity in Ontario. The paper examines the near term outlook, critical demand and supply issues, the projected Ontario demand/supply balances and finally concludes by looking at the challenges for Ontario's new market structure

  2. Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

  3. GRI baseline projection of U.S. energy supply and demand to 2010. 1992 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holtberg, P.D.; Woods, T.J.; Lihn, M.L.; Koklauner, A.B.

    1992-04-01

    The annual GRI baseline projection is the result of a complex modeling effort that seeks to achieve an internally consistent energy supply and demand outlook across all energy sources and end-use demand sectors. The year's projection includes the adoption of a new petroleum refinery methodology, the incorporation of a new approach to determining electric utility generating capacity heat rates, the extensive update of both the residential and commercial databases and methodologies, and the continued update of the GRI Hydrocarbon Model. The report presents a series of summary tables, sectoral breakdowns of energy demand, and the natural gas supply and price trends. The appendices include a discussion of the methodology and assumptions used to prepare the 1992 edition of the projection, an analysis of the potential for higher levels of gas demand, a description of industrial and commercial cogeneration, a description of the independent power producer projection, a comparison of the 1992 edition of the projection with previous GRI projections, and a discussion of additional data used in developing the projection

  4. Nuclear fuel cycles : description, demand and supply estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gadallah, A.A.; Abou Zahra, A.A.; Hammad, F.H.

    1985-01-01

    This report deals with various nuclear fuel cycles description as well as the world demand and supply estimates of materials and services. Estimates of world nuclear fuel cycle requirements: nuclear fuel, heavy water and other fuel cycle services as well as the availability and production capabilities of these requirements, are discussed for several reactor fuel cycle strategies, different operating and under construction fuel cycle facilities in some industrialized and developed countries are surveyed. Various uncertainties and bottlenecks which are recently facing the development of some fuel cycle components are also discussed, as well as various proposals concerning fuel cycle back-end concepts. finally, the nuclear fuel cycles activities in some developing countries are reviewed with emphasis on the egyptian plans to introduce nuclear power in the country. 11 fig., 16 tab

  5. Working group report on water resources, supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marta, T.J.

    1990-01-01

    A summary is presented of the issues discussed, and the conclusions and recommendations of a working group on water resources, supply and demand. The issues were grouped into the categories of detecting climatic change and water impacts, simulating potential impacts, and responding to potential impacts. The workshop groups achieved consensus on the following points: the physics of global warming and climatic change have been satifactorily proven; there appears to be some evidence of climatic change and a signal could soon be detected; policy decisions and strategic plans for climatic change and its potential impacts are needed immediately; and targets and priorities for decison making should be identified and addressed immediately. Three top-priority issues are the identification of indicators for the detection of climatic change impacts on hydrology, determining response to climate-related change, and evaluation of design criteria. Better information on regional climate and hydrology under conditions of global warming is needed before design criteria could be altered

  6. Aligning PEV Charging Times with Electricity Supply and Demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Cabell [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-06-05

    Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a growing source of electricity consumption that could either exacerbate supply shortages or smooth electricity demand curves. Extensive research has explored how vehicle-grid integration (VGI) can be optimized by controlling PEV charging timing or providing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services, such as storing energy in vehicle batteries and returning it to the grid at peak times. While much of this research has modeled charging, implementation in the real world requires a cost-effective solution that accounts for consumer behavior. To function across different contexts, several types of charging administrators and methods of control are necessary to minimize costs in the VGI context.

  7. Energy demand and supply in human skeletal muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, C J

    2017-04-01

    The energy required for muscle contraction is provided by the breakdown of ATP but the amount of ATP in muscles cells is sufficient to power only a short duration of contraction. Buffering of ATP by phosphocreatine, a reaction catalysed by creatine kinase, extends the duration of activity possible but sustained activity depends on continual regeneration of PCr. This is achieved using ATP generated by oxidative processes and, during intense activity, by anaerobic glycolysis. The rate of ATP breakdown ranges from 70 to 140 mM min -1 during isometric contractions of various intensity to as much as 400 mM min -1 during intense, dynamic activity. The maximum rate of oxidative energy supply in untrained people is ~50 mM min -1 which, if the contraction duty cycle is 0.5 as is often the case in cyclic activity, is sufficient to match an ATP breakdown rate during contraction of 100 mM min -1 . During brief, intense activity the rate of ATP turnover can exceed the rates of PCr regeneration by combined oxidative and glycolytic energy supply, resulting in a net decrease in PCr concentration. Glycolysis has the capacity to produce between 30 and 50 mM of ATP so that, for example, anaerobic glycolysis could provide ATP at an average of 100 mM min -1 over 30 s of exhausting activity. The creatine kinase reaction plays an important role not only in buffering ATP but also in communicating energy demand from sites of ATP breakdown to the mitochondria. In that role, creatine kinases acts to slow and attenuate the response of mitochondria to changes in energy demand.

  8. Gas supply triggers development at Connaught Bridge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffs, E.

    Malaysia aims to become a fully developed country by the year 2020, which means a steady 20% annual rate of growth of electricity demand to the end of the century. Much of this growth is centered in the area around Kuala Lumpur so that Tenaga Nasional Bhd (Tenaga) urgently needs to bring new generating capacity into the capital area. Access to gas on the west coast of the malay peninsula has given Tenaga Nasional Berhad the opportunity to convert their Connaught Bridge power station to a combined cycle and to install four open-cycle gas turbines. The expansion of Connaught Bridge is the first of several projects which are being developed. In early 1991, as site preparation was getting under way for the combined cycle, Tenaga ordered eight gas turbines for peak load duty from NEI-ABB Gas Turbines. Four of these are the 150 MW Type GT13E with water injection for NOx control which have been installed in parallel with the construction of the steam cycle on the Connaught Bridge site. At sea level and 32[degrees]C site ambient, these gas turbines are rated 130MW on gas for a total 520MW of peak load capacity. The last of these was synchronized on 12 October last year. There are no plans to convert these to combined cycles.

  9. Innovations in managing demand and supply of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loughborough, K. [Enwave District Energy, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    Enwave District Energy Ltd. is one of North America's largest district energy system manufacturers which provides outsourced heating and cooling to more than 130 major buildings in downtown Toronto. This presentation described innovations in managing the supply and demand of energy, and provided several viewgraphs depicting service heating, district cooling, and the district energy distribution network in Toronto. One of Enwave's greatest innovations is the deep lake water cooling (DLWC) district cooling system. The $175 million capital joint infrastructure project which began in June 2002 will be on line in 2004. The district cooling system represents the largest renewable energy project in Canada with a total cooling capacity of 52,000 tons. The system relies on DLWC and conventional chillers. DLWC uses naturally cold water from Lake Ontario. The coldness from the water is used to provide air conditioning to the buildings in Toronto. The benefits include 75 per cent reduced energy use, the elimination of ozone depleting refrigerants, and the use of a renewable resource for providing a stable cooling supply. Emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and oxides of sulphur are also reduced. The benefits to the city include a reduced strain on the electricity infrastructure, cleaner air and improved health. tabs., figs.

  10. Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noland, Robert B.; Cowart, William A.; Fulton, Lewis M.

    2006-01-01

    An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement

  11. Travel demand policies for saving oil during a supply emergency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noland, Robert B. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: r.noland@imperial.ac.uk; Cowart, William A. [ICF Consulting, Ltd., Egmont House, 25-31 Tavistock Place, Bloomsbury, London, WC1H 9SU (United Kingdom); Fulton, Lewis M. [International Energy Agency, 9 Rue de la Federation, Paris 75015 (France)

    2006-11-15

    An area of growing concern is the future stability of oil producing regions and the ability to maintain stability in international petroleum markets. The transport sector, in particular, is extremely vulnerable to short-term supply disruptions with consequent implications on economic activities in most countries. This paper analyses potential transport demand restraint strategies that could potentially mitigate the impact of short-term supply disruptions. Our analysis includes estimates of the potential fuel savings from several policies. Specifically, we examine various work-based policies (telecommuting, flexible work schedules), the potential of carpooling, speed limit reductions, driving bans and restrictions, increased public transport usage, and providing information on the effect of maintaining optimal tire pressures. The analysis uses various assumptions based on existing knowledge about how travelers may respond under emergency conditions to develop estimates of potential fuel savings. Results suggest that the most restrictive policies, such as driving bans and mandatory carpooling are the most effective. Other policies provide small reductions with some, such as telecommuting and flexible work schedules, having the potential to be easily implemented. Those policies, focussed on encouraging public transport use, are less effective and potentially more costly to implement.

  12. Hotspots of human nutrition: Micronutrient supply, demand, and pollinator dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombeck, E.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Mueller, M.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    While our caloric needs can mostly be met by wind-pollinated crops such as cereals, a recent analysis of USDA data shows that animal-pollinated crops contain the vast majority of many essential nutrients, including vitamins A and C, calcium, fluoride, and folic acid. In this work we combined global crop yield data with data on nutritional content in each crop to map nutrient production around the world, and to illustrate the value of pollination services to human nutrition. Spatially explicit crop yields (at 5 min resolution) were multiplied by crop nutrient content and by crop dependence on pollination to map where reductions in total nutrient production would occur if pollination services were removed. Nutrient demand maps (human nutrient requirements multiplied by population density) were generated to identify regions where local reduction in pollination services could threaten nutritional security. Nutrient deficiency maps (nutrient supply minus nutrient demand) were also created to identify hotspots where local crop production is not adequate to meet local nutritional needs.

  13. Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryxell, John M; Hilborn, Ray; Bieg, Carling; Turgeon, Katrine; Caskenette, Amanda; McCann, Kevin S

    2017-11-14

    There is growing awareness of the need for fishery management policies that are robust to changing environmental, social, and economic pressures. Here we use conventional bioeconomic theory to demonstrate that inherent biological constraints combined with nonlinear supply-demand relationships can generate threshold effects due to harvesting. As a result, increases in overall demand due to human population growth or improvement in real income would be expected to induce critical transitions from high-yield/low-price fisheries to low-yield/high-price fisheries, generating severe strains on social and economic systems as well as compromising resource conservation goals. As a proof of concept, we show that key predictions of the critical transition hypothesis are borne out in oceanic fisheries (cod and pollock) that have experienced substantial increase in fishing pressure over the past 60 y. A hump-shaped relationship between price and historical harvest returns, well demonstrated in these empirical examples, is particularly diagnostic of fishery degradation. Fortunately, the same heuristic can also be used to identify reliable targets for fishery restoration yielding optimal bioeconomic returns while safely conserving resource abundance. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  14. Climate change and water supply and demand in western Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawford, R.G.

    1990-01-01

    There is reason to be concerned that water resources on the Canadian Prairies could be at considerable risk due to climatic change. The Canadian Prairies frequently experience variations in the climate, which can reduce crop production by 25-50% and annual volumetric river flows by 70-90%. The potential impacts of climatic change on the Prairies are discussed. Consumptive water uses on the Prairies are dominated by irrigation and the water demands arising from thermal power generation. The overall effect of climatic change on water supplies will depend on the ways in which the various components of the hydrological cycle are affected. At the present time it is unsure whether complementary equations are more realistic in estimating evaporation than mass balance techniques. There is a need to obtain good baseline data which will allow the unequivocal resolution of the most accurate technique for estimating evaporation on the Prairies. Climate change could lead to a decrease in spring runoff, and would also lead to earlier snowmelt and peak flows. This could lead to a longer period of low flows during the summer and fall and a further drawdown of moisture reserves. Some appropriate strategies for adapting to climate change would be: encouraging water conservation; reductions in agricultural water use by developing/utilizing strains of plants with lower water demand; controlling new water developments; and enhancing on-farm retention. 10 refs

  15. The determining factors of natural gas demand in domestic sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadoret, I.

    1992-01-01

    Natural gas plays an important role in domestic sector. For example, in France, Italy, Germany and United-Kingdom the natural gas share in energy demand of domestic sector is respectively 26%, 44%, 34% and 63%. A study of energy policies, natural gas industry structure and tarification system of this four countries indicates that gas development is linked to the government and petroleum companies policy. Econometric models estimation show by another way that when natural gas is introduced in domestic sector, the demand follows the distribution network. When the market is saturated, the demand changes with energy price and household income. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  16. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2015 edition + executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    France's new energy transition law for green growth takes effect in 2015, and it will support RTE in its task of assessing and analysing security of electricity supply. Indeed, RTE is required by law to periodically publish Generation Adequacy Reports on the balance between electricity supply and demand. This year's report will be used in security of supply analyses conducted as part of the planning of the next multi-annual energy program. Another highlight of 2015 is the operational implementation of the capacity mechanism. Electricity suppliers now have to contribute to security of supply in proportion to their customers' consumption via a new obligation-based system. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report was prepared within this context. The supply-demand balance outlook is considerably better over the entire medium-term horizon than in the 2014 Generation Adequacy Report. This is a result of generators' recent decisions to keep oil-fired and combined-cycle gas plants in the market. Included in the possible courses of action RTE identified in its previous Generation Adequacy Report, these decisions were taken just as the capacity mechanism was being implemented operationally. A downward revision of demand assumptions has also improved the security of supply outlook. The 2015 Generation Adequacy Report paints a much more favourable picture of the supply-demand balance over the next five years than the previous edition. Significant margins are foreseen during the next two winters. This year's Generation Adequacy Report also includes detailed assumptions about the evolution of the European mix, which will play an increasingly important role in guaranteeing security of supply in France. Indeed, interconnections will help reduce the shortfall risk by 8 to 10 GW over the next five winters. Lastly, a new chapter about flexibility requirements and the variability of residual demand associated with the growing share of renewable generation in the

  17. LNG [liquefied natural gas]: Fueling energy demand in the Far East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, R.L.

    1993-01-01

    An overview is presented of the supply and demand outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the far east, and the basic elements of an LNG supply project in Japan. Power generation is the primary market for LNG in the far east, due to a preference for energy supply diversity, large undeveloped gas resources, drastic improvements in power generation technology, and environmental advantages of natural gas. India and mainland China represent huge potential markets, and projects are under discussion to bring gas by pipeline from Iran or Qatar to both Pakistan or India. The economics of LNG plant development in Japan, including large ($4 billion for field and plant development) capital costs, long-term contracts, government involvement, and gas prices are discussed. Falling yen/dollar exchange rates have substantially bettered the Japanese economy in terms of gas prices. 11 figs., 2 tabs

  18. Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Mark Hanley

    The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

  19. Analysis of natural gas supply strategies at Fort Drum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stucky, D.J.; Shankle, S.A.; Anderson, D.M.

    1992-07-01

    This analysis investigates strategies for Fort Drum to acquire a reliable natural gas supply while reducing its gas supply costs. The purpose of this study is to recommend an optimal supply mix based on the life-cycle costs of each strategy analyzed. In particular, this study is intended to provide initial guidance as to whether or not the building and operating of a propane-air mixing station is a feasible alternative to the current gas acquisition strategy. The analysis proceeded by defining the components of supply (gas purchase, gas transport, supplemental fuel supply); identifying alternative options for each supply component; constructing gas supply strategies from different combinations of the options available for each supply component and calculating the life-cycle costs of each supply strategy under a set of different scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of future events

  20. The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1993-01-01

    The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so inter-related that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulfur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulfur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. The paper looks in greater detail at the supply and demand situation with respect to oil and natural gas, at regional oil import dependency and refining capacity. (10 figures). (author)

  1. Mexico's long-term energy outlook : results of a detailed energy supply and demand simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Quintanilla, J.; Conde, L.A.; Fernandez, J.; Mar, E.; Martin del Campo, C.; Serrato, G.; Ortega, R.

    2006-01-01

    This article discussed the results of a bottom-up analysis of Mexico's energy markets which was conducted using an energy and power evaluation program. The program was used to develop energy market forecasts to the year 2025. In the first phase of the study, dynamic optimization software was used to determine the optimal, least-cost generation system expansion path to meet growing demand for electricity. A separate model was used to determine the optimal generating strategy of mixed hydro-thermal electric power systems. In phase 2, a nonlinear market-based approach was used to determine the energy supply and demand balance for the entire energy system, as well as the response of various segments of the energy system to changes in energy price and demand levels. Basic input parameters included information on the energy system structure; base-year energy statistics; and, technical and policy constraints. A total of 14 scenarios were modelled to examine variations in load growth, sensitivities to changes in projected fuel prices, variations in assumed natural gas availability, system reliability targets, and the potential for additional nuclear capacity. Forecasts for the entire energy system were then developed for 4 scenarios: (1) reference case; (2) limited gas scenario; (3) renewable energy; and (4) additional nuclear power generation capacity. Results of the study showed that Mexico's crude oil production is projected to increase annually by 1 per cent to 2025. Imports of petroleum products resulting from the country's rapidly growing transportation sector will increase. Demand for natural gas is expected to outpace projected domestic production. The long-term market outlook for Mexico's electricity industry shows a heavy reliance on natural gas-based generating technologies. It was concluded that alternative results for a constrained-gas scenario showed a substantial shift to coal-based generation and associated effects on the natural gas market. 4 refs., 26

  2. Prospects of natural gas demand and pipeline projects in the East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishii, A.

    1997-01-01

    The development of the natural gas industry in East Asia was discussed. It was predicted that by 2010, the demand for natural gas could potentially reach 80 billion cubic feet per day. This represents an 8 per cent per year growth rate from a 1995 baseline. Similarly, it was predicted that by 2010, the region's natural gas supply could potentially reach 65 billion cubic feet per day which would represent 2.5 times the supply of natural gas in 1995. The additional demand will most likely be supplied from the Middle East in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), from Eastern Russia through pipelines of LNG, or from North America in the form of LNG. Some gas may also be supplied from Central Asia through pipelines. The price and cost of natural gas are major uncertainties in the future of the East Asian gas demand. Pipeline projects from Russia to China were discussed. Japan and Korea are also interested in collaborating on the feasibility study with Russia and China on a 3,400 km pipeline of 60 inch diameter from the Koviktinskoye gas field through Mongolia to Beijing, Tianjin and Korea, transporting 20 to 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually. A natural gas pipeline project transporting gas from the southern edge of the Sakhalin Island to the Tokyo area was also discussed. The project would involve construction of a 2,200 km 40-48 inch pipeline, much of it undersea, transporting 6 to 12 million tonnes of liquid natural gas, annually

  3. Update on Canadian energy supply and demand report, 1998-2025 : summary of results from Round One

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-10-05

    The National Energy Board is required to periodically review the outlook of Canadian energy supply and demand for major energy commodities including oil, natural gas and electricity. The National Energy Board undertook a first round of consultations between April 15 and May 1, to seek input regarding Canadian energy supply and demand to 2025. The topics discussed at Round One of these consultations were: (1) oil prices, (2) macroeconomics, (3) energy demand, (4) electricity, (5) coal, (6) crude oil and bitumen resources, (7) natural gas and natural gas liquids, (8) alternative and renewable fuels, (9) emissions, and (10) cases and sensitivities. The comments received on each topic and the Board`s recommendations were presented. A second round of consultation will be held early in 1999.

  4. Operational modeling of a sustainable gas supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim

    2010-01-01

    Biogas production from codigestion of cattle manure and biomass can have a significant contribution to a sustainable gas supply when this gas is upgraded to specifications prescribed for injection into the national gas grid and injected into this grid. In this study, we analyzed such a gas supply

  5. Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-04-01

    Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  6. Physician supply and demand in anatomical pathology in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Chih-Yi; Jung, Shih-Ming; Chuang, Shih-Sung

    2011-02-01

    Anatomical pathology was not popular in Taiwan a few decades ago, with a severe shortage of pathologists. However, there has been a steady increase in recent years, and now there is a threat of oversupply We evaluated supply and demand over the past three decades and compared the findings with other countries. We collected the enrollment data of pathologists and physicians from the Taiwan Society of Pathology, the Department of Health, Executive Yuan, and Taiwan Medical Association, and analyzed equivalent data from other countries. We sent questionnaires to pathology chiefs to inquire about future job vacancies. The number of pathologists has increased at an annual rate of 4.93% between 2004 and 2008, in contrast to 3.7% for all physicians. There has been a net annual increase of 12 pathologists in the past 13 years. The estimated average number of consultant posts per year was nine, which was only one-third of the average number of first-year residents (R1s). The number of pathologists/million population in Taiwan was 14.83, which was comparable to that in Japan and South Korea but much smaller than that in Canada and the United States. The ratio of pathologists to physicians in Taiwan was 0.97%, which was higher than that in Japan (0.68%) and South Korea (0.64%), but lower than in Canada (1.32%) and the United States (1.46%). On average, 1.79% of medical graduates chose pathology for their R1 training in Taiwan, which was higher than that in the United States (1.50%) and Canada (1.10-1.20%). Anatomical pathology is no longer a specialty that is facing a physician shortage in Taiwan, and there is now a relatively high pathologist/physician ratio among Asian countries. We suggest that a decrease in the number of R1s in pathology is needed to maintain a balance between supply and demand. Copyright © 2011 Formosan Medical Association & Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Gas supply planning for new gas-fired electricity generation facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slocum, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores several key issues in gas supply planning for new gas fired electric generation facilities. This paper will have two main sections, as follows: developing the gas supply plan for a gas-fired electricity generation facility and exploring key gas supply contract pricing issues

  8. Mackenzie Gas Project : gas resource and supply study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, D.G.; Braaten, K.M.

    2004-01-01

    A study was conducted to assess the future gas supply for the Mackenzie Gas Project. The economically recoverable gas resources and deliverability in the region were assessed in order to support construction of the Mackenzie Valley pipeline and the associated gathering system. This supply study was based on a 25 year timeframe for resource development. Production forecasts were also prepared for 50 years following the date of the study. Natural gas forecasts for the general area to be served by the proposed pipeline were also presented. This report includes an introduction to the final gas resource and supply study as well as the regional geology relating to discovered and undiscovered resources. The following regions were included in the study area: onshore Mackenzie Delta including the Niglintgak, Parsons Lake and Taglu anchor fields; central Mackenzie Valley region extending from the Mackenzie Delta south to 63 degrees latitude; northern portion of the Yukon Territory; and, portions of the offshore Mackenzie Delta region limited to a water depth of 30 metres. Forecasts and economic analyses were prepared for the following 3 scenarios: contingent onshore resources only; contingent and prospective onshore resources; and, contingent and prospective onshore and offshore resources. Sensitivity forecasts were prepared for a fully expanded pipeline capacity of 1.8 bcf/day with an equal capacity gathering system. In addition, the National Energy Board estimates of resources for the 3 anchor field were used in place of the operator's estimates. A geological review was included for the plays in the study area. 15 refs., 43 tabs., 38 figs

  9. Creating hourly distributions at national level for various energy demands and renewable energy supplies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, David; Drysdale, Dave; Hansen, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    being recorded over longer time horizons, for example over one day. In this paper, a methodology is presented for creating hourly distributions for energy systems analysis tools. On the demand side, hourly distributions are developed for electricity, heating, cooling, and transport while the supply side...... includes wind, solar (photovoltaic and thermal), and wave power. Distributions are not created for dispatchable plants, such as coal, gas, and nuclear thermal plants, since their output is usually determined by the energy modelling tool rather than by a dependent resource. The methodologies are purposely...

  10. Interim report by a Committee on Demands and Supplies of Electric Enterprise Council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    An interim report by a committee on demands and supplies, Electric Enterprise Council, was given for the period up to the year 2000. The demands of electric power in Japan were set as 658,000 million kWh for 1990 and 768,000 million kWh for 1995. The electric power enterprises appear to be at a major turning point at present, that is, the growth in the demands tended to slow down. The features of the situation are then the stabilized supply, supply cost reduction, reasonable power source constitution, etc. The following things are described. Background and policy; power demand outlook and supply measures; power supply and supply efficiency (the composition of power sources, respective power sources with supply targets and problems, etc.); power demand/supply outlook for 2000. (Mori, K.)

  11. LPG consumption in the long term: supply, pricing demand with particular reference to the petrochemical sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shammas, P.

    1996-01-01

    Supply of LPG is forecast to grow over the next decade from the present level of 180 million t/y to about 185-190 million t/y, depending on demand in Asia which is rising rapidly and on new LPG export projects. Most of the increase in supply will come from new gas and crude oil production, from new LPG ventures, and from refineries reducing the n-butane content of motor gasoline. Pricing will remain volatile as a result of crude oil price volatility, variations in the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and as result of competition between ethane, PPG, naphtha and condensate as ethylene cracker feedstocks. Demand for LPG in OECD countries will continue to show steady growth. The increase in demand will be more rapid in the relatively less developed OECD countries, as the trend in Spain has shown in recent years. Provided that the LPG price is competitive, demand in China, South-East Asia and the Indian sub-continent could grow beyond current projections. Consumption in these countries will depend on the installation of distribution facilities and the rate at which LPG can substitute for traditional fuels and kerosene as well as compete for limited disposable incomes. (author)

  12. Increased competition on the supply side of the Western European natural gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golombek, R.; Gjelsvik, E.; Rosendahl, K.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. The authors show--using a numerical model of the Western European natural gas market--that once the demand side of the market is liberalized, each gas-producing country has an incentive to break up its gas sellers. The model therefore suggests that there may be numerous producers in a liberalized natural gas market. Hence, in a liberalized market consumers will not be exploited by suppliers

  13. Process modelling in demand-driven supply chains: A reference model for the fruit industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Wolfert, J.

    2010-01-01

    The growing importance of health in consumption is expected to result in a significant increase of European fruit demand. However, the current fruit supply does not yet sufficiently meet demand requirements. This urges fruit supply chains to become more demand-driven, that is, able to continuously

  14. Estimating spatially specific demand and supply of dental services: a longitudinal comparison in Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwendicke, Falk; Jäger, Ralf; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; van den Berg, Neeltje

    2016-09-01

    Assessing the spatial distribution of oral morbidity-related demand and the workforce-related supply is relevant for planning dental services. We aimed to establish and validate a model for estimating the spatially specific demand and supply. This model was then applied to compare demand-supply ratios in 2001 and 2011 in the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Northern Germany). The spatial units were zip code areas. Demand per area was estimated by linking population-specific oral morbidities to working times via insurance claim data. Estimated demand was validated against the provided demand in 2001 and 2011. Supply was calculated for both years using cohort data from the dentist register. The ratio of demand and supply was geographically mapped and its distribution between areas assessed using the Gini coefficient. Between 2001 and 2011, a significant decrease of the general population (-7.0 percent), the annual demand (-13.1 percent), and the annual supply (-12.9 percent) was recorded. The estimated demands were nearly (2001: -4 percent) and completely (2011: ±0 percent) congruent with provided demands. The average demand-supply-ratio did not change significantly between 2001 and 2011 (P > 0.05), but was increasingly unequally distributed. In both years, few areas were over-serviced, while many were under-serviced. The established model can be used to estimate spatially specific demand and supply. © 2016 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  15. Finland: Scandinavia's top gas user sees demand rising rapidly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, H.H.

    1992-01-01

    The rising demand for natural gas in Finland which already uses more gas than any other Nordic country is noted. The natural gas market which is based on sales to large industries and for heating is compared to the market in Denmark which is geared to small private heating customers. Imports of Norwegian gas allowing increased sales for power generation in Finland, and the influence of the impending Finnish application for membership of the EC on the gas market are considered. (UK)

  16. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  17. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Qian Sun

    Full Text Available Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  18. Analyzing Power Supply and Demand on the ISS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Justin; Pham, Tho; Halyard, Raymond; Conwell, Steve

    2006-01-01

    Station Power and Energy Evaluation Determiner (SPEED) is a Java application program for analyzing the supply and demand aspects of the electrical power system of the International Space Station (ISS). SPEED can be executed on any computer that supports version 1.4 or a subsequent version of the Java Runtime Environment. SPEED includes an analysis module, denoted the Simplified Battery Solar Array Model, which is a simplified engineering model of the ISS primary power system. This simplified model makes it possible to perform analyses quickly. SPEED also includes a user-friendly graphical-interface module, an input file system, a parameter-configuration module, an analysis-configuration-management subsystem, and an output subsystem. SPEED responds to input information on trajectory, shadowing, attitude, and pointing in either a state-of-charge mode or a power-availability mode. In the state-of-charge mode, SPEED calculates battery state-of-charge profiles, given a time-varying power-load profile. In the power-availability mode, SPEED determines the time-varying total available solar array and/or battery power output, given a minimum allowable battery state of charge.

  19. Modelling of Sudan’s Energy Supply, Transformation, and Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali A. Rabah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to develop energy flow diagram (Sankey diagram of Sudan for the base year 2014. The developed Sankey diagram is the first of its kind in Sudan. The available energy balance for the base year 2012 is a simple line draw and did not count the energy supply by private and mixed sectors such as sugar and oil industries and marine and civil aviation. The private and mixed sectors account for about 7% of the national grid electric power. Four energy modules are developed: resources, transformation, demand, and export and import modules. The data are obtained from relevant Sudanese ministries and directorates and Sudan Central Bank. “e!Sankey 4 pro” software is used to develop the Sankey diagram. The main primary types of energy in Sudan are oil, hydro, biomass, and renewable energy. Sudan has a surplus of gasoline, petroleum coke, and biomass and deficit in electric power, gasoil, jet oil, and LPG. The surplus of gasoline is exported; however, the petroleum coke is kept as reserve. The deficit is covered by import. The overall useful energy is 76% and the loss is 24%. The useful energy is distributed among residential (38%, transportation (33%, industry (12%, services (16%, and agriculture (1% sectors.

  20. Full speed ahead on the Western Canada gas supply treadmill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flint, D.; Dixon, B.

    2005-01-01

    The sustainability of natural gas supply in Western Canada was discussed and a background of the Forward Energy Group Inc., was provided, including details of goals, investments and assets. Various challenges to sustainable supply were outlined, including details of total production, competing processes of decline and growth, rate additions from new wells and the fact that since 1989, wells onstream produce 80 per cent of all natural gas. Annual challenges include production and decline rates, as well as additional declines in base volumes of pre-1990 wells. Various industry responses were presented. Rate additions have responded to prices, cash flow, acquisition and capital markets. Growth has been punctuated by low investment. A composite decline was presented, revealing that the decline rate of all wells onstream were increasing. In addition, production gaps grow larger due to the increase of composite decline rates. It was noted that composite decline rates may stabilize. Other factors contributing to decline rates were reserves-based contracts, the absence of pipeline capacity and storage, as well as recession. Rate losses and rate additions were presented. Solution to address these challenges include low deliverability zones, new pools, new areas, tight gas, and technology. It was noted that all activity growth is from low deliverability wells. Rate additions by deliverability class, discovery period, and fracturing were provided. In addition, rate additions per foot drilled were also discussed. Various drivers of the Western Canada Sedimentary (WCSB) rate additions include world gas demand; North American gas supply; capital investment in WCSB; WCSB projects and competition; and capital efficiency. A chart of gas cash flow and investment was presented, as well as a forecast of increasing costs. It was concluded that the WCSB is an important supply source for North America and that the key challenge is to sustain production profitably. Higher prices and

  1. The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia-Pacific region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fridley, D.

    1993-01-01

    It is reported that years of strong economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters -Indonesia, China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010, over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil. 1 ref., 5 figs, 2 tabs

  2. Balancing natural gas policy : Fueling the demands of a growing economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.

    2003-01-01

    In March 2002 a request was made to the National Petroleum Council by the United States Secretary of Energy to examine the potential implications of new supplies, technologies, perceptions of risk on natural gas demand, supplies, and delivery through 2025. In addition, the Secretary was looking for insight on energy market dynamics and an outlook on the longer-term sustainability of natural gas supplies. Ideas on ways to improve the productivity and efficiency of North American natural gas markets while ensuring adequate and reliable supplies of energy for consumers were also requested. Two options were examined by the National Petroleum Council (NPC). The reactive path involves public policies which remain in conflict, while the balanced future involves aligned public policies. It was discovered that 75 per cent of long-term American gas needs will be met by traditional North American producing areas which will be unable to meet projected demand. Production growth is desirable in the Rockies and deepwater Gulf of Mexico, as well as non conventional production. After careful examination, it was determined that demand flexibility and efficiency must be improved, along with an increase in supply diversity. Infrastructure must be enhanced and sustained, and efficient markets must be promoted. All these measures would result in higher economic growth, higher employment, and stronger industrial activity. figs

  3. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Appendix to the technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive 'all energy' market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 93 tabs., 13 figs

  4. Canadian energy supply and demand 1993 - 2010: Appendix to the technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-01

    The National Energy Board has since 1959 prepared and maintained projections of energy supply requirements and has from tine to time published reports on them. The objectives of this report are to provide a comprehensive `all energy` market analysis and outlook to service as a standard of reference for all parties interested in Canadian energy issues; to provide a framework for public discussion on emerging energy issues of national importance and to monitor the prospects for the supply, demand and price of natural gas in Canada pursuant to the Market-Based Procedure for regulating. The focus of the technical report provides detailed descriptions of the analytical methods used and the quantitative results. The quantitative analysis will be of value to users who wish to develop their own views of prospects or to have a detailed assessment of the impact of alternative assumptions. 93 tabs., 13 figs.

  5. Research on Demand Prediction of Fresh Food Supply Chain Based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    He Wang

    2015-01-01

    Demand prediction of supply chain is an important content and the first premise in supply management of different enterprises and has become one of the difficulties and hot research fields for the researchers related. The paper takes fresh food demand prediction for example and presents a new algorithm for predicting demand of fresh food supply chain. First, the working principle and the root causes of the defects of particle swarm optimization algorithm are analyzed in the study; Second, the...

  6. Agricultural demands for natural gas and liquified petroleum gas in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uri, N.D.; Gill, M.

    1992-01-01

    This study endeavours to determine whether farmers adjust their consumption of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in response to changes in the unit price of energy. A demand model is specified and estimated. The conclusions suggest that the unit price of natural gas (liquefied petroleum gas) is a factor impacting the quantity of natural gas (liquefied petroleum gas) demanded by farmers, but there is no indication that other types of energy are substitutes for natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. Additionally, the number of acres irrigated is an important factor driving the demand for natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. Finally, the estimated models of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas demand were structurally stable over the period 1971-1989. (author)

  7. North American natural gas supply dynamics: A focus on U.S. supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, R.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses US natural gas supply dynamics in the context of the North American gas marketplace. Supply fundamentals are examined, methodology is briefly presented, regional supply outlooks are discussed. Assumptions, drivers and issues are highlighted. The analysis and outlook indicate that the sizeable North American resource base can be economically developed to supply growing US natural gas requirements. The major incremental supply sources are likely to come from deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Rocky Mountain regions, onshore Texas and imports from Canada. Given this outlook, major business and investment opportunities exist for the gas upstream and midstream sectors despite some short-term challenges

  8. Modeling of gas demand using degree-day concept: case study for Ankara

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumrah, F.; Katircioglu, D.; Aykan, Y.; Okumus, S.; Kilincer, N.

    2001-01-01

    The demand for natural gas is rapidly increasing in Turkey, as it is in the rest of the world. However, natural gas reserves and production are rather limited in Turkey.The bulk of the Turkish gas demand is met by imports. Russia currently accounts for 69% of Turkey's gas supplies. Physical shortages might occur; supplies for industrial production and household consumption could temporarily run short. Also, fluctuations in consumption might occur due to climatic reasons or peak daily industrial energy demand. Underground gas storage is a necessity in order to regulate these seasonal, daily, and hourly fluctuations. In order to effectively design and utilize underground gas storage, it is necessary to identify the market requirements. In this study, Ankara was chosen as a pilot region due to its strategical importance of being the capital city of Turkey, and a wide range of marketing surveys for the last seven years was performed. All of the factors influencing the gas consumption and the relationships between these factors were analyzed. How does gas demand behave in extremely cold weather? How does the industrial part of the city act in the consumption behavior? What are the plans of the Municipality of Ankara, responsible for the execution of the natural gas distribution project in Ankara? A model was developed based on degree-day (DD) concept, including the annual number of customers, average DDs, and the usage per customer. A history matching study was performed to verify the results of the model with the measured consumption data for the last seven years. Comparisons showed that the calculated consumption by DD model and measured daily consumption were in good agreement. Finally, by using the developed approach, the gas demand was forecasted for Ankara up to 2005. The results of this study can be used to design underground gas storage facility near Ankara. (author)

  9. Optimizing a Military Supply Chain in the Presence of Random, Non-Stationary Demands

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yew

    2003-01-01

    ... logistics supply chain that satisfies uncertain, non-stationary demands, while taking into account the volatility and singularity of military operations This research focuses on the development...

  10. A policy study on energy supply and demand of several countries (China, Indonesia, Mexico)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Byung Ryeal [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    Korea is depending 97% of primary energy consumption on imports. To have a stable supply of energy required for a continuous growth, it is recommended to utilize international energy market actively for short-term while it is required to reinforce resources diplomacy with other countries with full of resources for mid- and long-term. This study reviewed energy supply and demand and major policies of China, Indonesia and Mexico, which give direct or indirect influence on energy supply and demand of Korea. With the geographical adjacency, Korea imports coal from China and exports petroleum products to China. Furthermore, it is very likely to have a trade related to nuclear power plant and natural gas. Indonesia exports coal, crude oil, and LNG to Korea. Especially LNG is occupied 60% of total amount of imports. It is expected to get help from Mexico because there are many similar aspects between Mexico and Korea such as GNP or a conservative idea on energy industry. (author). 49 refs., 6 figs., 42 tabs.

  11. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Szozda; Sylwia Werbińska-Wojciechowska

    2013-01-01

    Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand plannin...

  12. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luchansky, Matthew S.; Monks, James

    2009-01-01

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  13. Supply and demand elasticities in the U.S. ethanol fuel market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luchansky, Matthew S. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign49 Roger Adams Lab, 81-5600 S. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Monks, James [Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    The market for ethanol has grown from approximately 1.2 billion gallons in 1997 to almost 5 billion gallons in 2006. With the huge increase in ethanol demand in recent years, the growth in derived demand for corn has driven up many food prices. This paper uses monthly data from 1997-2006 to estimate the market supply and demand for ethanol at the national level. The simultaneous determination of the supply and demand curves using two-stage least squares allows for the calculation of supply and demand-side elasticities, which are important results in light of the tremendous growth in this market and recent legislation concerning ethanol. (author)

  14. Demand Intensity, Market Parameters and Policy Responses towards Demand and Supply of Private Supplementary Tutoring in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Percy Lai Yin

    2010-01-01

    Based on some longitudinal studies of private tutoring in twelve cities, towns, municipalities and provinces of China, the paper endeavours to depict demand intensity, articulate market parameters and reflect on policy responses towards the demand-supply mechanism of the vast shadowy educational phenomena at primary and secondary levels. Such…

  15. An interim report on the outlook of long-term energy supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    An interim report was presented by the supply/demand committee in Over-all Energy Council concerning the energy demand and supply outlook for fiscal 1990 as compared with fiscal 1980. The background for deciding the outlook of energy supply and demand and basic ideas for energy policy, and the outlook for energy supply and demand are outlined. The outlook was prepared, assuming yearly economic growth of about 5 % in 1980s and the utmost efforts by people in energy situation. The energy situation both domestic and abroad is largely changing, including energy saving efforts and petroleum price. The aggregate energy demand for fiscal 1990 was put at about 590 million kl in terms of crude oil. Then, concerning nuclear power generation, the power supply by nuclear energy in fiscal 1990 was estimated at 46 million kw accounting for 11.3 % of the total power supply. (Mori, K.)

  16. Preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet U.S. transportation energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, M. K.; Moore, J. S.

    2002-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that substitutes for conventional petroleum resources will be needed to meet U.S. transportation energy demand in the first half of this century. One possible substitute is natural gas which can be used as a transportation fuel directly in compressed natural gas or liquefied natural gas vehicles or as resource fuel for the production of hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. This paper contains a preliminary assessment of the availability of U.S. natural gas resources to meet future U.S. transportation fuel demand. Several scenarios of natural gas demand, including transportation demand, in the U.S. to 2050 are developed. Natural gas resource estimates for the U. S. are discussed. Potential Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S. are estimated. Two scenarios of potential imports from outside North America are also developed. Considering all these potential imports, U.S. natural gas production requirements to 2050 to meet the demand scenarios are developed and compared with the estimates of U.S. natural gas resources. The comparison results in a conclusion that (1) given the assumptions made, there are likely to be supply constraints on the availability of U.S. natural gas supply post-2020 and (2) if natural gas use in transportation grows substantially, it will have to compete with other sectors of the economy for that supply-constrained natural gas

  17. Update of energy supply and demand 1983-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    When a return to economic growth and prosperity occurs there is excellent potential for growth in electrical demand. This electrical growth will mainly come about through increases in total energy usage and through the substitution of electricity for oil, coal and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. The successful introduction of electricity use, either directly or indirectly, into the transportation sector would open up a very large market and make a major contribution to Canada's policy of energy self sufficiency. There are also significant growth areas in the residential and industrial sectors. The major challenge in the next decade will be to maintain a viable Canadian nuclear industry, so as to meet the probable upturn in electrical generating capacity required in the 1990's and beyond and to maintain and improve Canada's share of the nuclear export market. In order to achieve this active support should be given: 1) to building CANDU units in stations primarily devoted to exporting their electrical output to the U.S.A. 2) reactor exports. 3) inititatives to promote increased electrical home heating. 4) electricity substitution in the transportation and industrial fields. Canada has ample uranium resources to cover its own needs and potential exports in the foreseeable future. Because of the great development potential in the CANDU uranium/thorium fuel cycle nuclear energy should be considered as virtually a renewable resource with the best prospects for Canada's long-term energy self sufficiency. Increased productivity, through electric-based process inprovements, and the growth of electric-based high technology industries are both vital to Canada's future economic health. Nuclear produced electricity thus has a vital role to play far into the future

  18. Mexican demand for US natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanter, M.A.; Kier, P.H.

    1993-09-01

    This study describes the Mexican natural gas industry as it exists today and the factors that have shaped the evolution of the industry in the past or that are expected to influence its progress; it also projects production and use of natural gas and estimates the market for exports of natural gas from the United States to Mexico. The study looks ahead to two periods, a near term (1993--1995) and an intermediate term (1996--2000). The bases for estimates under two scenarios are described. Under the conservative scenario, exports of natural gas from the United States would decrease from the 1992 level of 250 million cubic feet per day (MMCF/d), would return to that level by 1995, and would reach about 980 MMCF/D by 2000. Under the more optimistic scenario, exports would decrease in 1993 and would recover and rise to about 360 MMCF/D in 1995 and to 1,920 MMCF/D in 2000

  19. Mexican demand for US natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanter, M.A.; Kier, P.H.

    1993-09-01

    This study describes the Mexican natural gas industry as it exists today and the factors that have shaped the evolution of the industry in the past or that are expected to influence its progress; it also projects production and use of natural gas and estimates the market for exports of natural gas from the United States to Mexico. The study looks ahead to two periods, a near term (1993--1995) and an intermediate term (1996--2000). The bases for estimates under two scenarios are described. Under the conservative scenario, exports of natural gas from the United States would decrease from the 1992 level of 250 million cubic feet per day (MMCF/d), would return to that level by 1995, and would reach about 980 MMCF/D by 2000. Under the more optimistic scenario, exports would decrease in 1993 and would recover and rise to about 360 MMCF/D in 1995 and to 1,920 MMCF/D in 2000.

  20. Gas demand forecasting by a new artificial intelligent algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatibi. B, Vahid; Khatibi, Elham

    2012-01-01

    Energy demand forecasting is a key issue for consumers and generators in all energy markets in the world. This paper presents a new forecasting algorithm for daily gas demand prediction. This algorithm combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP), linear regression or GARCH. The proposed method is applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the proposed method.

  1. The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market-Model-based analysis until 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Stefan; Bothe, David

    2009-01-01

    Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries

  2. Development of S-ARIMA Model for Forecasting Demand in a Beverage Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mircetic, Dejan; Nikolicic, Svetlana; Maslaric, Marinko; Ralevic, Nebojsa; Debelic, Borna

    2016-11-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the key activities in planning the freight flows in supply chains, and accordingly it is essential for planning and scheduling of logistic activities within observed supply chain. Accurate demand forecasting models directly influence the decrease of logistics costs, since they provide an assessment of customer demand. Customer demand is a key component for planning all logistic processes in supply chain, and therefore determining levels of customer demand is of great interest for supply chain managers. In this paper we deal with exactly this kind of problem, and we develop the seasonal Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting demand patterns of a major product of an observed beverage company. The model is easy to understand, flexible to use and appropriate for assisting the expert in decision making process about consumer demand in particular periods.

  3. Demand for storage of natural gas in northwestern Europe: Trends 2005-30

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeffler, Felix; Kuebler, Madjid

    2007-01-01

    We provide an estimation of the additional need for underground storage facilities in northwestern Europe until 2030. Storage is one important source to provide supply flexibility in order to match the seasonal demand for natural gas. However, this supply flexibility is now largely provided in northwestern Europe by indigenous production. Declining reserves will increase the dependency on imports from far-off sources, which are less flexible. Hence, flexibility must be provided by additional storage. Our estimation is based on production and consumption forecasts for natural gas and observations of the relationship between the supply and demand of gas and the supply and demand of flexibility in the period 1995-2005. We provide different scenarios to check for the robustness of our results. We estimate that by 2030, between 10.2 (with no strategic storage) and 29.0 billion cubic meters (BCM) of working gas volume (with 10 percent strategic storage for imports from non-EU countries) will be required, in addition to the existing 40 BCM. We conclude that, with well-functioning markets for flexibility, market forces could close a storage gap of 10.2 BCM in time. Strategic storage obligations would require state intervention and a well-balanced relation between a regulated part of the storage market for strategic reserves and the market for the operational use of storage

  4. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abada, Ibrahim, E-mail: ibrahim.abada@polytechnique.edu [IFP Energies nouvelles, 1 et 4 avenue de Bois Preau, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); EDF Research and Development, 1 avenue du General de Gaulle, 92140 Clamart (France); EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Ouest (France); Massol, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.massol@ifpen.fr [Center for Economics and Management, IFP School, 228-232 av. Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Department of Economics, City University London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2011-07-15

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: > We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. > Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. > Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. > Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. > Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization reasons.

  5. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. - Highlights: → We model retail competition using a Nash-Cournot framework. → Risk-neutral retailers decide their import policy among a set of risky producers. → Case 1: the German gas trade of the 1980s to understand the gas sources' choices. → Case 2: the current Bulgarian gas trade to study the market properties. → Conclusions about the market regulation for welfare optimization

  6. Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Maier, Tobias; Afentakis, Anja

    2013-01-01

    Background In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals. Methodology To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing professiona...

  7. Oil and gas supply : hurdles and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giusti, L.

    2006-01-01

    Brazil has a modest dependency. The important players on the supply side include Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago. Also, Colombia is a player with its excellent exploration and production model, its stability and institutional strength. It was suggested that Bolivia could become an important player if changes take place to promote the development of its huge natural gas resources

  8. Mastering demand and supply uncertainty with combined product and process configuration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdouw, C.N.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Trienekens, J.H.; Verwaart, D.

    2010-01-01

    The key challenge for mastering high uncertainty of both demand and supply is to attune products and business processes in the entire supply chain continuously to customer requirements. Product configurators have proven to be powerful tools for managing demand uncertainty. This paper assesses how

  9. Safety stock or safety lead time : coping with unreliability in demand and supply

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kampen, T.J.; van Donk, D.P.; van der Zee, D.J.

    2010-01-01

    Safety stock and safety lead time are common measures used to cope with uncertainties in demand and supply. Typically, these uncertainties are studied in isolated instances, ignoring settings with uncertainties both in demand and in supply. The current literature largely neglects case study based

  10. U.S. hardwood fiber demand and supply situation : globalization and structural change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Irene Durbak

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews demand and supply trends for hardwood fiber in the United States. The objective is to illustrate nationwide shifts in demand and supply and show how the hardwood pulpwood market reacts to those shifts at a regional level. Thus, the market situation is illustrated using an economic rationale, and trends are projected under assumptions about future...

  11. Job Supply and Demand for University Graduates in Spain: A (Relative) Mismatch Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parellada, Marti; Duch, Nestor; Alvarez, Montserrat

    2009-01-01

    This article provides an analysis of job supply by Spanish firms and the demand for work, and the mismatch that occurs between these two variables. Data are taken for the year 2006, with particular attention to jobs offered by firms that require people with university degrees or other higher education qualifications. Demand and supply are broken…

  12. Outdoor recreation in American life: a national assessment of demand and supply trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Carter Betz; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Shela H. Mou; John C. Bergstrom; R. Jeff Teasley; Michael A. Tarrant; John Loomis

    1999-01-01

    Outdoor Recreation in American Life is the United States' only ongoing, comprehensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply. New and different aspects of national demand, resemblances to the past, and trends in the supply of outdoor recreation opportunities, both from the private and public sectors,...

  13. Research in the Netherlands on system integration. Analysis of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Werhoven, M.; Bruel, R.

    2000-07-01

    Results of studies on integrated systems can contribute to the realization of sustainability targets of the Dutch government. In this report an overview is given of the supply-side and the demand-side of energy-related research on system integration. Also, recommendations to improve the coordination between supply and demand are given. 14 refs

  14. Study of factors affecting demand and supply of sugar in Indonesia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is aimed at determining: (a) the factors influencing the demand of national sugar, and the price elasticity of demand (ep) and; (b) the factors influencing the supply of national sugar, and the price elasticity of supply (es). The data comprised a time series of 1990-2006, taken from the Central Statistics Bureau, The ...

  15. Flood Tides and Aging Swimmers: An Exploration into the Supply and Demand for Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerchner, Charles T.

    The teacher supply and demand problem is considered along three dimensions: (1) the aggregate balance between supply and demand, and the balance in different education specialties and different areas of the country; (2) the composition of the teacher work force, its age, and level of training; and (3) the apparent quality of the work force and the…

  16. Time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand: Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined a time-series analysis of Nigeria rice supply and demand with a view to determining any long-run equilibrium between them using the Error Correction Model approach (ECM). The data used for the study represents the annual series of 1960-2007 (47 years) for rice supply and demand in Nigeria, ...

  17. time-series analysis of nigeria rice supply and demand: error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    O. Ojogho Ph.D

    the two series have been changing which may continue for longer time than foreseen {Figure (1c)}. Figure (c) shows a forecast of rice supply and demand for Nigeria. It shows that beyond 2010, rice supply will permanently lead rice demand. This indicates that they either have time-varying means, time-varying variances or ...

  18. Forecasted balance sheet of the power supply and demand equilibrium in France. 2007 issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Conformably with the law from February 10, 2000, RTE, the French power transportation network is liable for establishing, at least every two year, a pluri-annual forecasted balance sheet of the power supply and demand equilibrium. Its aim is to identify the unbalance risks between the power consumption and the available generation means. To perform this technical expertise, RTE establishes some forecasts of domestic power consumption which are compared to the known perspectives of evolution of the production means. Two main changes have been taken into consideration in this analysis: the improvement of the energy efficiency, and the decay of power consumption in the big industry. Therefore, the new reference scenario indicates a consumption growth of 1.3% per year up to 2010 and 1% only for the next decade, i.e. 534 TWh of annual power consumption for 2020. On the offer side, several projects of new production means (mainly gas combined cycles) have been accepted during the last two years which represent more than 13000 MW of additional power. On the other hand, the decommissioning of several old fossil fuel power plants is foreseen for 2015 and represent 4400 MW. The offer based on decentralized production means is changing too, mainly thanks to the development of the wind power industry. In order to reach the supply-demand equilibrium, an acceptability threshold for failure duration has been defined by the public authorities and is limited to 3 hours per year. According to the reference scenario, the security of supplies in France seems to be reasonably assured for the next five years to come. A complement of 10500 MW will be necessary to meet the demand foreseen for 2020. (J.S.)

  19. Gas supply for independent power projects: Drilling programs and reserve acquisitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, J.D.; Walker, R.K.

    1990-01-01

    Developers of gas-fired independent power projects, although drawn to gas as the fuel of choice for economic and environmental reasons, are finding the problem of cost-effective gas supply to be intractable. By one estimate, there are $6 billion worth of gas-fired projects languishing in the planning stage for want of long-term gas supply that is acceptable to project lenders. Worse still, as the authors are aware, some currently operating gas-fired projects lack such a supply, thus forcing the developer to rely on the spot market for gas as an interim (and unsatisfactory) solution. Although spot market prices in the deregulated natural gas industry have remained relatively low over several years, long-term gas supply has become problematic, particularly for power projects whose economics typically require an assured supply at a determined price over a multiyear period. In short, while there is an increasing demand for gas as a preferred source of fuel supply for power projects, there are discontinuities in the approaches taken to contracting for that supply by producers and developers. These concern primarily allocation of the risk of commodity-driven price increases during the term of the fuel supply contract. Without a means of accommodating price-related risk, the parties will inevitably find themselves at an impasse in contract negotiations. If there is a barrier to the independent power generation industry's vertical integration into gas production, it is the fundamental insularity of the two industries. As they have discovered, it may be indispensable for gas producers and power developers to employ intermediaries familiar with both industries in order to consummate appropriate joint-venture drilling programs and reserve acquisitions. Given the economic consequences of doing so successfully, however, they believe such programs and acquisitions may become an integral part of independent power developers' business strategy in the 1990s and beyond

  20. Natural gas demand in the European household sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsen, Odd Bjarte; Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar

    2005-08-01

    This paper analyzes the residential natural gas demand per capita in 12 European countries using a dynamic log linear demand model, which allows for country-specific elasticity estimates in the short- and long-run. The explanatory variables included lagged demand per capita, heating degree days index, real prices of natural gas, light fuel oil, electricity, and real private income per capita. The short-run own-price and income elasticity tend to be very inelastic, but with greater long-run responsiveness. By splitting the data set in two time periods, an increase in the own-price elasticities were detected for the European residential natural gas demand market as a whole. We have provided support for employing a heterogeneous estimator such as the shrinkage estimator. But the empirical results also motivate a further scrutiny of its properties. (Author)

  1. A supply chain contract with flexibility as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Whan-Seon

    2013-06-01

    Demand forecasting is one of the main causes of the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. As a countermeasure for demand uncertainty as well as a risk-sharing mechanism for demand forecasting in a supply chain, this article studies a bilateral contract with order quantity flexibility. Under the contract, the buyer places orders in advance for the predetermined horizons and makes minimum purchase commitments. The supplier, in return, provides the buyer with the flexibility to adjust the order quantities later, according to the most updated demand information. To conduct comparative simulations, four-echelon supply chain models, that employ the contracts and different forecasting techniques under dynamic market demands, are developed. The simulation outcomes show that demand fluctuation can be effectively absorbed by the contract scheme, which enables better inventory management and customer service. Furthermore, it has been verified that the contract scheme under study plays a role as an effective coordination mechanism in a decentralised supply chain.

  2. DESIGNING A SUPPLY CHAIN MODEL WITH CONSIDERATION DEMAND FORECASTING AND INFORMATION SHARING

    OpenAIRE

    S.M.T. Fatemi Ghomi; N. Azad

    2012-01-01

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In traditional supply chain inventory management, orders are the only information firms exchange, but information technology now allows firms to share demand and inventory data quickly and inexpensively. To have an integrated plan, a manufacturer not only needs to know demand information from its customers but also supply information from its suppliers. In this paper, information flow is incorporated in a three-echelon supply chain model. Also to decrease the risk o...

  3. A Danish Heat Atlas for Supply Strategies and Demand Side Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Bernd

    The expansion of district heating, the assessment of the impact of heat supply strategies, as well as the analysis of significant heat demand savings require sound decision support at high detail. Data is needed to continuously quantify potentials and costs of measures in the end-use and supply...... heat demand and possible savings. The location of each building relative to heat supply technologies is mapped and used for the assessment of supply strategies by potentials, costs and environmental impact. Both elements can furthermore be used to balance investments in supply with investments...

  4. Assessment of demand for and supply of qualified manpower for the nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morelle, J.

    1993-01-01

    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency recently published a study which presents the results of a pioneering survey of the demand for and the supply of qualified manpower in various sectors of the nuclear industry (including medicine), and in the related areas of regulation and education in 12 OECD countries. The current manpower situation is presented and the future demand is reviewed. Present and future activities of OECD countries to ensure a balance between supply and demand of qualified manpower are discussed

  5. Assessment of freshwater scarcity using a model based on supply and demand law

    OpenAIRE

    Escribano Rodríguez de Robles, Beatriz; Sellarès González, Jordi; Xercavins, Josep

    2011-01-01

    The main goal of this work is to provide an analysis methodology for assessment of water scarcity problems based on supply and demand. To this end, we must first determine what can be considered as supply and demand in the water scarcity problem. Although some variables involved are physical, economical or demographical, in our approach social factors are also included. This leads us to objectify water demand standards in relation to acceptable welfare levels. Within this appro...

  6. Ensuring the security of electricity supply in Ontario: is demand-side management the answer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chuddy, B.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the issues relating to ensuring the security of electricity supply in Ontario. In particular, it focuses on demand-side management as a means of achieving these objectives. The solution involves both conservation and supply. It is therefore critical that there be investment in new supply with multiple buyers/sellers. regulatory environment and pricing could encourage conservation

  7. Forecast analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance in France for summer 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-05-01

    Under normal meteorological conditions, and notwithstanding localized risks associated with the vulnerability of certain regions, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance in continental France shows no particular risk for the entire summer 2013 period. Special vigilance is maintained in the Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur region, given the risk of forest fires and potential outages affecting the dual 400 kV link from Toulon. This assessment is based on the assumption that forecast demand for summer 2013 will remain broadly stable as compared with summer 2012, given public economic indicators, but also that the forecast availability of the French generating fleet will increase by 1100 MW compared with summer 2012. This increased availability is based on information supplied by generators, and notably includes scheduled temporary outages of certain combined cycle gas turbines. Finally, growth in photovoltaic generation (3,700 MW of installed capacity currently in France) is continuing at a sustained pace, leading to a 700 MW increase in the mean availability rate for this generation technology as compared with summer 2012. Moreover, the substantial investments already made by RTE or currently in progress to develop its network (voltage support measures, Cotentin-Maine line, etc.) have had a very positive impact on the reliability of the power system. (authors)

  8. China's Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ruby Thuy; Imholte, D. Devin

    2016-07-01

    As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China's supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007-2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China's rare earth supply, translating into 59-65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14-16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

  9. RFG in tight supply at introduction, then opt outs reduced demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohn, A.; Dale, C.; Lidderdale, T.; Zyren, J.; Hackworth, J.; Shore, J.; Burdette, M.

    1995-01-01

    The first reformulated gasoline (RFG) season went smoothly, meaning the industry was able to deliver product where it was needed. The absence of major refinery outages, along with unexpected reductions in demand resulting from several areas leaving the program at the last minute, contributed to this smooth transition. But the RFG market remains in a state of transition related to unexpected events that have affected supply and demand. An analysis of the RFG supply/demand scenario highlights the effects these events have had on gasoline markets. The paper discusses prior experiences with environmental programs, the complexity of the RFG program, RFG demand, production, imports, inventories, price volatility, and demand outlook

  10. Supply risk under the condition of discontinuous demand in the field of nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Qiyan; Tian Zhilong

    2006-01-01

    Demands can be divided into two kinds: continuous and discontinuous demands. Based on the analysis of the results on common supply risk studies, discontinuous demand is studied concerning its definition, characteristics, and the more obvious and severe risks and consequences induced by its characteristics. Furthermore, the discontinuous characteristics and relevant precautions of demand of nuclear power industry are analyzed. Analysis and research on supply risks under the condition of discontinuous demand would be helpful to enterprises to take this issue serious and prevent the risks. (authors)

  11. Optimisation of a green gas supply chain : a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gemert, Wim

    In this review the knowledge status of and future research options on a green gas supply based on biogas production by co-digestion is explored. Applications and developments of the (bio)gas supply in The Netherlands have been considered, whereafter literature research has been done into the several

  12. Optimisation of a green gas supply chain - A review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, J.; Broekhuis, A. A.; van Gernert, W. J. T.; van Gemert, W. J. T.

    In this review the Knowledge status of and future research options on a green gas supply based on biogas production by co-digestion is explored. Applications and developments of the (bio)gas supply in The Netherlands have been considered, whereafter literature research has been done into the several

  13. A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Yalçıntaş

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul’s water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure.

  14. Economic concepts to address future water supply-demand imbalances in Iran, Morocco and Saudi Arabia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.

    2013-01-01

    In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in

  15. Electricity supply and demand analysis in electric system of Uruguay 2000-2007 period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This article is about the following topics: energy analysis, production and use, supply and demand, energy consumption evolution, energy sources, energy demand by economic sector between years 2000-2007, energy range, energy growing rate, demanding maximum power, growing maximum rate, exported and imported energy.

  16. Asynchronous Distributed Control of Biogas Supply and Multienergy Demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alkano, Desti; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.; Chorfi, Younes

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the coordination between biogas producers who can use the biogas themselves, exchange biogas with their neighbors, or deliver it to the various energy grids, such as the low pressure gas grid or the power grid. These producers are called prosumers. In this setting, gas

  17. Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

  18. Application of Fiscal Incentives for Development of East Natuna Gas Field for Long-Term National Natural Gas Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwan Batubara

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available East Natuna gas field, which has proven reserves of 46 trillion cubic feet, is projected to meet long-term natural gas needs. However, CO2-content of the gas reserves reaches 71%, leading to expensive development costs. This research investigates the feasibility of the field based on several fiscal incentives. Firstly, gas supply-demand until year 2040 was analyzed. Then, based on the analysis, the field was developed using high CO2 gas separation technology to produce gas of 1300 MMSCFD in 2023, 2600 MMSCFD in 2031, and 3900 MMSCFD in 2039. Finally, the economic feasibility was assessed using cash flow analysis in accordance with Indonesia’s production sharing contract scheme. The results show that the supply-demand gap continues to increase and thus the development is urgently needed. The development cost is estimated around US$ 27.59 billion. The gas selling prices are assumed at US$ 8/MMBTU for wellhead, US$ 11/MMBTU for pipelines, and US$ 11/MMBTU for LNG. To achieve minimum IRR value of 12%, the government needs to offer incentives of 30-year contract period, profit sharing of 55%: 45%, first tranche petroleum to 10%, and tax holiday of 10 years. Toll fee for Natuna-Cirebon pipeline is US$ 2.3/MMBTU at IRR of 12.6%.

  19. Physical Therapy and Occupational Therapy: Suggested Readings [and] Physical Therapy: Supply/Demand--Some Facts [and] Occupational Therapy: Supply and Demand--Some Facts. Information on Personnel Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Professions in Special Education, Reston, VA.

    Brought together are two fact sheets on the supply of and demand for physical therapists and occupational therapists. The fact sheets cite statistical data from the National Easter Seal Society, the American Physical Therapy Association, and the American Occupational Therapy Association. The cited facts focus on the need to recruit and retain…

  20. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through operations and supply chain management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plambeck, Erica L.

    2012-01-01

    The experiences of the largest corporation in the world and those of a start-up company show how companies can profitably reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their supply chains. The operations management literature suggests additional opportunities to profitably reduce emissions in existing supply chains, and provides guidance for expanding the capacity of new “zero emission” supply chains. The potential for companies to profitably reduce emissions is substantial but (without effective climate policy) likely insufficient to avert dangerous climate change. - Highlights: ► Describes how firms are profitably reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their supply chains ► Highlights academic literature relevant to supply chain emission reduction

  1. Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Szozda

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

  2. Long term trends in world energy demand and supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisch, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this address, the author discusses projected changes in fuel use, shifts in energy consumption and projected increases in carbon dioxide emissions. He expects these energy issues to cause geopolitical uncertainties that will complicate attempts to reduce greenhouse gases. There is great concern for the poverty-stricken areas of Asia and Africa. Thirty-five to forty-five percent of their energy needs will be supplied by scarce fuelwood and poor animal and vegetal residues by the year 2020. International cooperation will be needed to alleviate the tensions caused by these inequities of energy supplies

  3. Electric utilities and the demand for natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uri, N D; Atkinson, S

    1976-03-01

    The scarcity of natural gas has given rise to a series of priorities of deliveries based on end use and drafted by the Federal Power Commission. The U.S. Supreme Court, on June 7, 1972, held that the Commission has jurisdiction over curtailments in the service of gas in interstate commerce to both resale and direct industrial customers. This decision reversed a Fifth Circuit Court ruling that protected direct industrial customers from curtailments. The FPC priority curtailments are classed from 1 to 9, for which electric utilities are concentrated in classes 4 to 9. As weather conditions become more severe, not only do the residential and commercial consumers demand more electrical energy, they also demand more natural gas. The result is that there is less natural gas available for electric utilities to use for generation so they change to an alternative fuel. A demand model for the short term for natural gas for electric utilities is given; primary factors involve the price of natural gas, the prices of substitute fuels, and the demand for electrical energy by the various consumer classes. (MCW)

  4. Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochner, Stefan; Dieckhöner, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports into several European countries. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable. The analysis thereby highlights the importance of taking the political stability of supply countries into account when assessing the security of European gas imports. - Highlights: ► Impact of political instability on security of natural gas supplies. ► Analysis of export stop during Libyan civil war in 2011. ► Model-based analysis of potential future North African crisis scenarios. ► Findings: spread of uprisings to Algeria more critical for Europe. ► Price effects and potential demand curtailment for consumers.

  5. Non-OPEC oil supply gains to outpace demand in 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1997-01-01

    Rising oil supplies in 1997 will relax some of the market tightness that drove up crude prices last year. Worldwide demand for petroleum products in 1996 rose faster than anticipated and faster than supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This increased demand for OPEC oil and pushed up prices for crude. At year end, the world export price of crude was up more than 25% from the same period a year earlier. Market conditions will change in 1997. While worldwide economic growth will continue to boost demand for energy and petroleum, non-OPEC petroleum supply will grow even more. Increases in North Sea and Latin American production will help boost non-OPEC output by 1.9 million b/d. And revenues from 1996 production gains will make additional investment possible in exploration and production. The paper discusses world economic growth, world oil demand, worldwide supply, supply outlook, prices and international drilling

  6. Interim report on the long-term outlook of energy demands and supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The supply/demand committee on Overall Energy Council has long deliberated on the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and finalized its report, assuming a yearly economic growth of about 5% in 1980s and utmost efforts by both the people and the government: the background and basic ideas to decide the outlook, the outlook of energy demands and supplies, and conclusions. The energy demand for fiscal 1990 is put at 590 million kl (crude oil equivalent) and for fiscal 2000 at 770 million kl with energy saving ratios 15.5% and 25%, respectively. The energy supply by nuclear power for fiscal 1990 is then put at 46,000 MW with 11.3% of the total. In the energy supply outlook for fiscal 1990, the aspects of the economy and stability as well as the quantity of respective energy sources are considered, overall to reduce the reliance on petroleum. (Mori, K.)

  7. Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, Page R

    2005-11-10

    Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent alpha in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4). The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

  8. An automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Intaher M. Ambe

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the development of a supply chain model for the automotive industry that would respond to changing consumer demand. Now more than ever, businesses need to improve the efficiency of their supply chains in order to maintain a competitive advantage. The principles of lean manufacturing and just-intime (JIT inventory control that were renowned for helping companies like Toyota, Dell and Walmart to rise to the top of their respective industries are no longer adequate. Leading companies are applying new technologies and sophisticated analytics to make their supply chains more responsive to customer demand. This challenge is driven by fierce competition, fluctuating market demand and rising customer requirements that have led to customers becoming more demanding with increased preferences. The article is based on theoretical reviews and suggests guidelines for the implementation of an automotive supply chain model for a demand-driven environment.

  9. The effect of waiting times on demand and supply for elective surgery: Evidence from Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riganti, Andrea; Siciliani, Luigi; Fiorio, Carlo V

    2017-09-01

    Waiting times are a major policy concern in publicly funded health systems across OECD countries. Economists have argued that, in the presence of excess demand, waiting times act as nonmonetary prices to bring demand for and supply of health care in equilibrium. Using administrative data disaggregated by region and surgical procedure over 2010-2014 in Italy, we estimate demand and supply elasticities with respect to waiting times. We employ linear regression models with first differences and instrumental variables to deal with endogeneity of waiting times. We find that demand is inelastic to waiting times while supply is more elastic. Estimates of demand elasticity are between -0.15 to -0.24. Our results have implications on the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing supply and their ability to reduce waiting times. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Law, Medicine, Veterinary Medicine: Issues in Supply and Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galambos, Eva C.

    Expansion in the South for providing professional education in medicine, veterinary medicine, and law was undertaken to extend access to desirable professionals to young people and to increase the supply of needed professionals in underserved areas. How these objectives have been met is analyzed from an economist's perspective by relating supply…

  11. Forecast analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance in France during the summer of 2008. Supply-demand balance analysis during the summer of 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-05-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the summer of 2008

  12. Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market. Some model-based insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abada, Ibrahim; Massol, Olivier

    2011-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long-short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980's to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough. (authors)

  13. Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan

    2016-01-01

    Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.

  14. Principles concerning the progress of the gas demand side management in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leca, A.; Statie, E.; Nistoran, D.

    1996-01-01

    The consequences of the application of demand side management (DSM) and integrated resources planning (IRP) notions for natural gas are analysed. Present socio-economic context in Romania - from a geopolitical point of view - obviously highlights a set of difficult gas supply problems in our country related to: the impossibility of satisfying the consumption demand from internal resources; the necessity of ensuring by imports of an important quantity of gas, which entails an important foreign currency expenditure and possible political pressures which an unique supplier could exert; the requirement of alignment to the western European country legislation, at an institutional and economical practice level. Each of these problems related to the gas-based power production and all together impose the tackling of DSM and IRP requirements from a strategic point of view. Some conclusions and proposals are presented. (author) 1 fig., 4 refs

  15. The role of nuclear energy for Korean long-term energy supply strategy : application of energy demand-supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Kyu Nam

    1995-02-01

    An energy demand and supply analysis is carried out to establish the future nuclear energy system of Korea in the situation of environmental restriction and resource depletion. Based on the useful energy intensity concept, a long-term energy demand forecasting model FIN2USE is developed to integrate with a supply model. The energy supply optimization model MESSAGE is improved to evaluate the role of nuclear energy system in Korean long-term energy supply strategy. Long-term demand for useful energy used as an exogeneous input of the energy supply model is derived from the trend of useful energy intensity by sectors and energy carriers. Supply-side optimization is performed for the overall energy system linked with the reactor and nuclear fuel cycle strategy. The limitation of fossil fuel resources and the CO 2 emission constraints are reflected as determinants of the future energy system. As a result of optimization of energy system using linear programming with the objective of total discounted system cost, the optimal energy system is obtained with detailed results on the nuclear sector for various scenarios. It is shown that the relative importance of nuclear energy would increase especially in the cases of CO 2 emission constraint. It is concluded that nuclear reactor strategy and fuel cycle strategy should be incorporated with national energy strategy and be changed according to environmental restriction and energy demand scenarios. It is shown that this modelling approach is suitable for a decision support system of nuclear energy policy

  16. A Study of Legal Manpower Demand and Supply in Pennsylvania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkee, Frank M.

    This study was directed toward an examination of the legal manpower system and its response to needs in Pennsylvania. Information based on surveys is presented on: (1) lawyer-population ratios by counties, lawyer-area ratios by counties, and lawyer ratios to population and area in the State; (2) legal manpower demand in terms of correlations…

  17. Seed demand and supply in eastern and northern Uganda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mo

    Increased farmer demand for a new variety (as opposed to the desire of ... The study highlighted the need for decisions making on seed interventions to be based ... and a field study of farmers' current practices and constraints ... A total of 10 households evenly .... For seed interventions to succeed, an understanding of the.

  18. Uruguaian rural area: energy demand and sources supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reolon, R.

    1994-01-01

    The present work is about the energy demand in rural areas and its electrification like one of the factors of its residents maintenance, in the means that they are essential for the development but intensive of agrarian intensity, nevertheless we will try to determine their quantity and the character one of them

  19. Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance for the winter period 2009-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-10-01

    Every year, RTE conducts a prospective study of the balance between supply and demand for electricity for the coming winter period, covering the whole of mainland France. This period of the year is looked at closely, primarily due to the high levels of electricity demand seen during cold snaps. The study by RTE is used to identify periods where the supply-demand balance comes under strain; it explores the measures that can be taken by electricity market players and RTE to avoid any interruption in supply during peak demand periods in France. RTE is responsible for managing the balance between supply and demand for electricity in mainland France, in real time. To do this, it anticipates potential risks that may supply may come under strain - well in advance - and informs market players. If periods are identified where the supply-demand balance comes under strain, RTE works with the electricity generators to look at possible ways of altering the schedules for shutting down generating units, and takes account of the possibilities for demand response (load reduction) reported by suppliers. As a last resort, if these preemptive measures prove insufficient and the situation becomes critical, RTE alerts the government of the risk that supply will be interrupted, and takes action in real time to limit the impact on the power system. For temperatures close to seasonal norms, the forecast outlook for the electricity supply-demand balance appears significantly less favourable than last winter until the end of January. Imports could be required between mid-November 2009 and the end of January 2010, to cover electricity demand in France and satisfy the technical security margin stipulated by RTE. To do this, suppliers would have to look to the European markets, in addition to activating demand response (load reduction) possibilities with their customer portfolios. In the event of an intense and sustained spell of cold weather, the technical limit for imports into the French

  20. Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France - 2011 Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Working under the aegis of public authorities, RTE periodically prepares and makes public a multi-annual forecast of the electricity supply-demand balance in France, as required by law. The purpose of this report is to evaluate the ability of the French power system, in interaction with neighbouring systems, to properly satisfy demand, based on the likeliest scenarios for trends in demand, demand response and generation

  1. A Composite Contract for Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Effort Dependent Stochastic Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Shuang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As the demand is more sensitive to price and sales effort, this paper investigates the issue of channel coordination for a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer facing price and effort dependent stochastic demand. A composite contract based on the quantity-restricted returns and target sales rebate can achieve coordination in this setting. Two main problems are addressed: (1 how to coordinate the decentralized supply chain; (2 how to determine the optimal sales effort level, pricing, and inventory decisions under the additive demand case. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of combined contract in supply chain coordination and highlight model sensitivities to parametric changes.

  2. Uranium and enrichment supply and demand - Facts and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stobbs, J.

    1990-01-01

    The author summarizes the general characteristics of the uranium and enrichment markets as follows: both markets have significant overcapacity; the situation has resulted from the past sales policies of producers and in part from the purchasing policies of the buyers; new low-price supply sources have appeared on the market; a continuing low level of spot prices and the perception of plentiful future supply will clearly influence buyer procurement strategies by pushing towards spot or short-term purchases or of tying long-term prices to the spot price. Data supporting the above conclusions provide a historical perspective since the mid 1970's and projections of market changes through the turn of the century

  3. Recent rapid increases in the demand for city gas in manufacturing industries and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusano, Shigero

    1992-01-01

    City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world

  4. Energy demand and supply, energy policies, and energy security in the Republic of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hoseok; Shin, Eui-soon; Chung, Woo-jin

    2011-01-01

    The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use-especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors-have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's 'green economy' and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. - Research highlights: →Rapid industrialization caused ROK energy use to increase over 10-fold during 1970-2000, with dramatic structural changes. → Growth in energy use after 2000 slowed to under 5%/yr, and

  5. A methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply of entrepreneurial microcredit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayi Gavriel Ayayi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a methodology for the assessment of potential demand and optimal supply for microcredit. We show that the total demand is a combination of the demand that stems from the active poor plus the demand generated by a motivator agent among the entrepreneurial non-motivated poor. We use French data to provide an illustration of the assessment of potential demand for microcredit. We also show that the proportion of the potential demand satisfied by a microfinance institution depends on its objective i.e. either it is socially oriented or a profit maximizer.

  6. Supply and demand estimates for the nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haussermann, W.; Hogroian, P.; Krymm, R.; Cameron, J.

    1977-01-01

    Based on the nuclear power growth forecasts described in the papers for Session I.B., estimates of requirements in the nuclear fuel cycle are given, notably concerning: - natural uranium, - enriched uranium, - fuel fabrication services, and - reprocessing services. The influence of realistic scenarios of uranium and plutonium recycling on fuel cycle requirements is discussed. Furthermore, the known plans for uranium and related fuel cycle production capacities are compared with the foreseeable demand. These estimates cover the period between now and the year 2000. However, in order to determine the influence of possible variations in reactor strategies on uranium demand, notably the introduction of breeder reactors, power growth projections and resulting fuel cycle requirements beyond the year 2000 are also briefly considered [fr

  7. Metering in the gas supply sector; Metering in der Gasversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wernekinck, U. [RWE Westfalen-Weser-Ems, Recklinghausen (Germany)

    2007-10-15

    The new conditions of competition in the gas supply sector have strongly increased the requirements on gas grid operators. Mainly an exact gas metering and -accouting will become more and more important. The systems and procedures are presented in detail in this contribution. (GL)

  8. Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian/Antrim shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projections are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted profitability to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region. Foreign gas trade may occur via either pipeline (Canada or Mexico), or via transport ships as liquefied natural gas (LNG). These import supply functions are critical elements of any market modeling effort.

  9. Natural gas supply strategies for European energy market actors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girault, Vincent

    2007-06-01

    The liberalization of the European energy markets leads to the diversification of supplies. Hence, we analyse the natural gas importation problem in a power producer point of view. Upstream and downstream natural gas markets are concentrated. In this oligopoly context, our topic is to focus on strategies which modify natural gas sourcing price. This by studying the surplus sharing on the natural gas chain. A European firm can bundle gas and electricity outputs to increase its market share. Therefore, a bundling strategy of a power producer in competition with a natural gas reseller on the final European energy market increases upstream natural gas price. Bundling also acts as a raising rival cost strategy and reduces the rivals' profit. Profits opportunities incite natural gas producers to enter the final market. Vertical integration between a natural gas producer and a European gas reseller is a way, for producers, to catch end consumer surplus. Vertical integration results in the foreclosure of the power producer on the upstream natural gas market. To be active on the natural gas market, the power producer could supply bundles. But, this strategy reallocates the rent. The integrated firm on natural gas gets the rent of electricity market in expenses of the power producer. Then, a solution for the power producer is to supply gas and electricity as complements. Then, we consider a case where vertical integration is not allowed. Input price discrimination by a monopolist leads to a lower natural gas price for the actor which diversifies its supplying sources. Furthermore, a bundling strategy increases the gap between the price proposed to the firm which also diversify its output and the firm which is fully dependent from the producer to supply natural gas on final market. (author)

  10. The clinical endocrinology workforce: current status and future projections of supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigersky, Robert A; Fish, Lisa; Hogan, Paul; Stewart, Andrew; Kutler, Stephanie; Ladenson, Paul W; McDermott, Michael; Hupart, Kenneth H

    2014-09-01

    Many changes in health care delivery, health legislation, and the physician workforce that affect the supply and demand for endocrinology services have occurred since the first published workforce study of adult endocrinologists in 2003. The objective of the study was to assess the current adult endocrinology workforce data and provide the first analysis of the pediatric endocrinology workforce and to project the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025. A workforce model was developed from an analysis of proprietary and publicly available databases, consultation with a technical expert panel, and the results of an online survey of board-certified endocrinologists. The Endocrine Society commissioned The Lewin Group to estimate current supply and to project gaps between supply and demand for endocrinologists. A technical expert panel of senior endocrinologists provided context, clinical information, and direction. The following were measured: 1) the current adult and pediatric endocrinology workforce and the supply of and demand for endocrinologists through 2025 and 2) the number of additional entrants into the endocrinology work pool that would be required to close the gap between supply and demand. Currently there is a shortage of approximately 1500 adult and 100 pediatric full-time equivalent endocrinologists. The gap for adult endocrinologists will expand to 2700 without an increase in the number of fellows trained. An increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus further expands the demand for adult endocrinologists. The gap can be closed in 5 and 10 years by increasing the number of fellowship positions by 14.4% and 5.5% per year, respectively. The gap between supply and demand for pediatric endocrinologists will close by 2016, and thereafter an excess supply over demand will develop at the current rate of new entrants into the work force. There are insufficient adult endocrinologists to satisfy current and future demand. A number of proactive

  11. Mud Bugs: Supply, Demand, and Natural Resources in Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Louisiana's land, coast, and inland waterways are home to many natural resources such as seafood, petroleum, natural gas, and timber--and freshwater crawfish, or "mudbugs" as the locals like to call them. These natural resources are vital to Louisiana's economy. The author describes a unit of study on economics in which a teacher taught…

  12. EIA sees US gas grid meeting demand in 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that interstate natural gas pipelines should be able to meet record US natural gas demand by 2000, Energy Information Administration predicts in a new study. The EIA study examined the capacity of 42 long lines, average utilization of the pipeline grid, and recently completed or planned capacity expansions. EIA the significant additional volumes could be transported into some major consuming areas during off-peak periods

  13. Diversification of gas supplies to Romania: options and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, A.

    1996-01-01

    The issue of diversifying natural gas supply to Romania gained importance after 1989. Currently, there are several factors which reinforce the need for the diversification: energy consumption structure; ratio of domestic production to import and traditionally strong natural gas industry. The mentioned points lead to the conclusion that ROMGAZ has to integrate further into the European gas market, to diversify sources of supply and to attract foreign investments. It is clear that the supply diversification depends on three crucial factors: economic recovery (partially achieved after 1992); general price stability (ending permanent depreciation of lev against US dollar); and raising natural gas prices to economic levels. Once those factors are in place, the possibility of gas supply diversification would become more tangible

  14. Forecast demand and supply of energy in the short period. Its forecast and sensitivity analysis until the 2004 fiscal year

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Yukari; Suehiro, Shigeru; Yanagisawa, Akira; Imaeda, Toshiya; Komiyama, Ryouichi

    2004-01-01

    The object of this report is forecast demand and supply of energy in the 2003 and 2004 fiscal year, which correspond to a business recovery period. A macroeconomics model and an energy supply model are calculated by changing actual GNP, crude oil rate and the rerunning period of nuclear power plants. The calculation results are compared with the reference case. In the first chapter, forecast Japanese economy until the 2004 fiscal year is explained. In the second chapter, the results of energy demand and supply in the first chapter are investigated by the home supply and consumption of primary energy (the reference case) and each energy resources. The sensitivity analytical results of actual GNP, consumer price index, home supply of the primary energy, energy expenditure, sales account of electric power, city gas and fuel by five cases such as reference, increase and decrease of oil cost and increase and decrease of economic growth are investigated. The effects of fast rerunning period of nuclear power plant and atmosphere temperature on these above demands of energies are indicated in the third chapter. (S.Y.)

  15. Generation adequacy report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. 2016 edition + executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    After a presentation of the elaboration framework of this generation adequacy report, and of the objectives of the risk analysis, this report proposes a detailed analysis of electricity consumption in France. It describes the main determining factors of electric power consumption: energy efficiency, economic growth, demography, and transfers and new uses of electricity. It proposes a sector-based analysis of energy demand (housing sector, office building sector, industrial sector, transport, energy and agriculture sectors), and an assessment of perspectives for power consumption. It also proposes a power-based analysis of electricity consumption: influence of temperature on electricity consumption, analysis of the load curve, perspectives for electricity consumption peak. The next part addresses the evolution of electricity supply in France. It presents the existing production fleet, proposes an overview of renewable energies (ground-based wind energy, offshore wind energy and marine energies, solar photovoltaic energy, bio-energies, hydraulic energy), presents some characteristics of the French nuclear fleet (installed capacity, availability), analyses the flame-based thermal fleet (oil-based, coal-based, gas-based combined, combustion turbine, and decentralised thermal installations). It also discusses the issue of load management, and proposes a synthetic overview of the electricity production fleet (supply evolutions on the medium term, evolutions with respect to the 2015 provisional assessment). The next chapter reports a risk analysis on the medium term by presenting indicators of supply safety, by proposing a failure risk analysis (diagnosis on the medium term, comparison with the previous provisional assessment, sensitivity to extreme events), by presenting energy assessments, by reporting sensitivity analysis (to consumption hypotheses, to hypotheses related to the development of renewable energies, to hypotheses related to the nuclear fleet), by reporting

  16. Modeling and simulation of the power demand and supply of a hydrothermal power generating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronini, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    Security of supply of electric energy is measured by the capacity to cover the energy demand and power of a supply grid. This coverage is important because the winter peak load period in Switzerland will become problematical in the near future. The objective of this research project is to analyze the ability of a power generating system to satisfy the power requirements of the corresponding supply network. The behaviour of the energy system in critical cases (loss of the largest generator, lack of available power from an external supplier or reduced capacity for energy storage) is tested for the present situation and for the rise in the annual load. The simulation of the load of the supply network is carried out by using a model developed for this project. This model is based on the analysis of half-hourly changes of load and on the statistical maximum values. The power generating system consists of nuclear generating units, hydro units with large reservoirs, run of the river installations and imported energy. Standby units such as gas turbines, spot market and coal-fired power stations are also available. Stochastic and deterministic energy and power models have been developed for the various power stations of the hydrothermal power system. In the case of nuclear power stations, a model has been developed on the basis of the output level, production losses and time and length of outages. The possible feeder streams of the run of the river installations and of the hydro units with a large reservoir are simulated using stochastic methods based on the historical values of the last 35 years. The commitment of the hydro units depends on the peak load requirements. The load and capacity over a period of several days and weeks have been simulated with stochastic models based on the Monte Carlo method and constantly (by half hour intervals) compared. In this manner each month can be simulated. (author) figs., tabs., 46 refs

  17. Analysis of the electricity supply-demand balance during the winter of 2008-2009: moderate risk of supply disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-10-01

    Twice a year, RTE publishes a forecast study of the electricity supply and demand in continental France for the summer and winter periods. The study is based on the information supplied by electric utilities concerning the expected availability of power generation means and on statistical meteorological models. Safety margins are calculated using thousands of probabilistic scenarios combining various production and consumption situations. This report is the forecast study for the winter of 2008-2009

  18. Modelling inter-supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhaobo; Teng, Chunxian; Zhang, Ding; Sun, Jiayi

    2016-05-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for studying supply chain versus supply chain competition with resource limitation and demand disruption. We assume that there are supply chains with heterogeneous supply network structures that compete at multiple demand markets. Each supply chain is comprised of internal and external firms. The internal firms are coordinated in production and distribution and share some common but limited resources within the supply chain, whereas the external firms are independent and do not share the internal resources. The supply chain managers strive to develop optimal strategies in terms of production level and resource allocation in maximising their profit while facing competition at the end market. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium of this inter-supply chain competition is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We further study the case when there is demand disruption in the plan-execution phase. In such a case, the managers need to revise their planned strategy in order to maximise their profit with the new demand under disruption and minimise the cost of change. We present a bi-criteria decision-making model for supply chain managers and develop the optimal conditions in equilibrium, which again can be formulated by another variational inequality problem. Numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

  19. Supply, Demand, and the Internet--Economic Lessons for Microeconomic Principles Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englander, Fred; Moy, Ronald L.

    2003-01-01

    Addresses issues related to the ways in which the Internet is affecting supply and demand, competition, property rights, information costs, and economies of scale. Suggests ways to incorporate these topics into the study of microeconomics. (Contains 19 references.) (SK)

  20. A Relook at the National Drug Control Strategy: Supply versus Demand

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cook, Virgil

    1998-01-01

    .... By reviewing the ends, ways, and means of past drug control strategies, this paper suggests that it is time for the federal government to shift existing resources from supply reduction to demand reduction programs...

  1. An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

    2014-05-01

    In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

  2. A comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emission control in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalaquazzaman, Mohammad

    2005-02-01

    This report presents a comparative study of long-term energy demand and potential greenhouse gas emissions projections from energy demand and supply sectors in Bangladesh covering the period 2000 to 2020. The study was conducted employing the IAEA's tool ENPEP- BALANCE model. This study presents a reliable energy system plan with minimal carbon emission for the country. Primary energy demands distributed by energy carriers and electricity demand have been projected based on macro-economic growth scenarios constructed for national energy policy of 1996. The conservation of indigenous energy resources was emphasized to build a long-term secured energy supply system. The potential energy supply options including nuclear energy and prospective greenhouse gas mitigation options were analyzed

  3. Optimisation of a green gas supply chain--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekkering, J; Broekhuis, A A; van Gemert, W J T

    2010-01-01

    In this review the knowledge status of and future research options on a green gas supply based on biogas production by co-digestion is explored. Applications and developments of the (bio)gas supply in The Netherlands have been considered, whereafter literature research has been done into the several stages from production of dairy cattle manure and biomass to green gas injection into the gas grid. An overview of a green gas supply chain has not been made before. In this study it is concluded that on installation level (micro-level) much practical knowledge is available and on macro-level knowledge about availability of biomass. But on meso-level (operations level of a green gas supply) very little research has been done until now. Future research should include the modeling of a green gas supply chain on an operations level, i.e. questions must be answered as where to build digesters based on availability of biomass. Such a model should also advise on technology of upgrading depending on scale factors. Future research might also give insight in the usability of mixing (partly upgraded) biogas with natural gas. The preconditions for mixing would depend on composition of the gas, the ratio of gases to be mixed and the requirements on the mixture.

  4. DemandSupply – Taxation in Times of Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diaconasu Delia Elena

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The confrontation of the two doctrines, the Keynesianism and the Supply-side economics highlight that the Laffer perspective is the way to achieve solid economic growth on the long way and aims the core of an “exit from crisis” policy. Therefore, this article aims to analyze the hypothesis that a high level of taxation and public spending deters productive behavior and reduces economic growth during recessions. In other words, an easy taxation and low unproductive public spending are desirable for both, the enterprising investor and the consumer. Using the example of Romanian fiscal policy, on one side, we validated within a Vector Error Correction framework that an increase in government revenues harms consumption, investment and the level of employment, in conjunction with a procyclical behavior of fiscal authorities. On the other side, our results showed some positive effects of an increased government expenditures on consumption and employment, which can be explained by the accelerate deterioration of primary balance deficit and the Central Bank’s low interest rate. Moreover, even though the initial positive response of investment to a government spending shock is positive, this is ephemeral and nonsignificant. Our findings highlight that, in order to reach growth on the long-run in times of crisis, the Romanian economy should adopt the fiscal policy and measures suggested by the Supply-side Economics.

  5. Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply in Japan. Estimation of energy demand and supply for 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' of JAEA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatematsu, Kenji; Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Nemoto, Masahiro; Murakami, Masakazu

    2009-06-01

    In this study, we showed an energy demand and supply scenario toward the year 2100 in Japan, which underlies JAEA's 'Nuclear Energy Vision 2100' published in October 2008. This energy demand and supply scenario aimed at the coexistence of the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission and the energy security through reduction of the fossil fuel usage, positive electrification and the nuclear energy usage. We reduced the ratio of the fossil fuel in the primary energy supply to about 1/3 and extend the share of renewable and nuclear energy to 70% from current 15%. As a result, the carbon dioxide emission was reduced to current 10%, and it developed that the half was the contribution of the nuclear energy. (author)

  6. North American natural gas pipeline and supply update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molyneaux, M.

    1999-01-01

    A series of overhead viewgraphs accompanied this presentation which presented an update of North American natural gas supply. Some of the graphs depicted the following: (1) natural gas consumption in the United States, (2) U.S. imports of Canadian natural gas, (3) natural gas prices differential: Henry Hub versus Empress, (4) natural gas production in the U.S., and (5) Baker Hughes active rig count, U.S. gas rigs. First Energy's view of U.S. natural gas supply is that the estimate of 50.0 Bcf/d for U.S. domestic production is looking too high. The first quarter 1999 exit production rates are behind expectations. U.S. domestic natural gas expenditure budgets are still down by more than 40 per cent compared to 1998 levels. The impact that this will have on prices was discussed. 21 figs

  7. Addressing the challenges of diagnostics demand and supply: insights from an online global health discussion platform

    OpenAIRE

    Engel, Nora; Wachter, Keri; Pai, Madhukar; Gallarda, Jim; Boehme, Catharina; Celentano, Isabelle; Weintraub, Rebecca

    2016-01-01

    Several barriers challenge development, adoption and scale-up of diagnostics in low and middle income countries. An innovative global health discussion platform allows capturing insights from the global health community on factors driving demand and supply for diagnostics. We conducted a qualitative content analysis of the online discussion ?Advancing Care Delivery: Driving Demand and Supply of Diagnostics? organised by the Global Health Delivery Project (GHD) (http://www.ghdonline.org/) at H...

  8. Demand and supply of labor by education towards 2030. Linking demographic and macroeconomic models for Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørnstad, Roger; Gjelsvik, Marit Linnea; Godøy, Anna; Holm, Inger; Stølen, Nils Martin

    2010-01-01

    Because of globalization and technological progress, most OECD-countries have seen a considerable growth in the demand for labor with higher skills and educational levels the past decades. In many countries, supply has not grown correspondingly. This has resulted in increasing differences either in unemployment or in wages between high and low skilled workers. In Norway, labor supply has followed demand more closely, and unemployment and wages have stayed relatively equal. The ...

  9. Longrun supply and demand of new residential construction in the United States: 1986 to 2040.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claire A. Montgomery

    1989-01-01

    A model of U.S. housing demand and supply was developed that projects housing starts for use in long-term forest planning. Housing demand was shown to respond to the current sale price and the user capital cost of housing and to the size and age composition of the population. Current sale price is determined in the new construction market. Supply of new construction...

  10. Energy supply: No gas from coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempkens, W

    1983-03-01

    In the last twelve years the share of natural gas in the total consumption of primary energy has increased twelve-fold and now amounts to 16 per cent. One-third of this is produced in West Germany. Although world deposits will last well into the next century, attempts are already being made to perfect techniques for obtaining gas from coal. However, the cubic metre price of synthetic gas is still anything but competitive.

  11. Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Fahl, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    A steady increase of natural gas demand can be observed in Europe over the last decades. Due to the European obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the trend toward natural gas is expected to continue in the future. The increased consumption is faced by comparably low indigenous gas resources within Europe, so that the dependency of Europe on gas imports from abroad will rise in the future. In addition to the existing supply sources Russia and Algeria, gas resources from the Middle East and the Caspian and the Central Asian regions may be supply options to cover Europe's gas demand in the future. Against this background, possible natural gas supply options as well as the transport infrastructure to and within Europe are discussed regarding their technical capacity and their costs. With the help of a cost-minimization model of the European gas supply system, the gas flows and the infrastructure capacity development up to the year 2030 are analyzed. In a sensitivity analysis, the impacts of demand variations on the choice of supply sources are studied. (author)

  12. Japan's actual energy supply/demand in 1986 and background - drastically changing economic/energy situations upset plans and forecasts by a wide margin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujime, K

    1987-05-01

    In 1986 the value of the yen soared and there was a lowering of interest rates and a slump in crude oil prices. These drastic changes in economic/energy situations brought about a completely different picture of Japan's energy supply and demand from originally expected. Energy demand from large industrial users was lowered and impacts of price fluctuations on energy supply and demand were uneven. Topics covered in the paper are: economic/industrial trends; energy price trends; actual energy supply and demand including electricity, oil, town gas, coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas); trends of major energy-consuming industries and energy consumption including steel industry, paper/pulp industry, cement industry and petrochemical industry; plans/forecasts completely off the track due to drastically changing economic/energy situations.

  13. Forecasting operational demand for an urban water supply zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, S. L.; McMahon, T. A.; Walton, A.; Lewis, J.

    2002-03-01

    A time series forecasting model of hourly water consumption 24 h in advance for an urban zone within the Melbourne (Australia) water supply system is developed. The model comprises two modules—daily and hourly. The daily module is formulated as a set of equations representing the effects of three factors on water use namely seasonality, climatic correlation, and autocorrelation. The hourly module is developed to disaggregate the estimated daily consumption into hourly consumption. The models were calibrated using hourly and daily data for a 6 year period, and independently validated over an additional seven month period. Over this latter period, the hourly forecast model accounted for 66% of the variance in the peak hourly water consumption with a standard error of 162 l/p/d.

  14. The future prospects of supply and demand for urologists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Youngho

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to forecast the future supply and demand for urologists and to discuss the possible policy implications. A demographic utilization-based model was used to calculate the total urologist requirements for Korea. Utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient genitourinary specialty services were estimated according to age, sex, and insurance status. These rates were used to estimate genitourinary specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to genitourinary physician requirements by applying per-genitourinary-physician productivity estimates. An in-and-out movement model for urologist supply was used. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the supply of urologic surgeons is expected to exceed the demand by 2025 under the current enrollment rate of specialists (43.5% in 2012) when comparing the results of the projections under demand scenarios 3 and 4. However, if the current enrollment rate persists, the imbalance in supply and demand will be not severe by 2030. The degree of imbalance can be alleviated by 2030 by maintaining the current occupancy rate of urologic residents of 43.5%. This study shows that the number of residents needs to be reduced according to the supply and demand for urologic surgeons. Moreover, a policy should be established to maintain the current occupancy rate of residents. The factors affecting the supply and demand of urologic surgeons are complicated. Thus, comprehensive policies encompassing these factors should be established with appropriate solutions.

  15. Supply and demand in physician markets: a panel data analysis of GP services in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Ian; Butler, James R G

    2014-09-01

    To understand the trends in any physician services market it is necessary to understand the nature of both supply and demand, but few studies have jointly examined supply and demand in these markets. This study uses aggregate panel data on general practitioner (GP) services at the Statistical Local Area level in Australia spanning eight years to estimate supply and demand equations for GP services. The structural equations of the model are estimated separately using population-weighted fixed effects panel modelling with the two stage least squares formulation of the generalised method of moments approach (GMM (2SLS)). The estimated price elasticity of demand of [Formula: see text] is comparable with other studies. The direct impact of GP density on demand, while significant, proves almost immaterial in the context of near vertical supply curves. Supply changes are therefore due to shifts in the position of the curves, partly determined by a time trend. The model is validated by comparing post-panel model predictions with actual market outcomes over a period of three years and is found to provide surprisingly accurate projections over a period of significant policy change. The study confirms the need to jointly consider supply and demand in exploring the behaviour of physician services markets.

  16. The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

    2012-01-01

    In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

  17. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, J.; Hengeveld, E. J.; van Gemert, W. J. T.; Broekhuis, A. A.

    2015-01-01

    The energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. The considered supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A reference scenario was defined which

  18. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkering, Jan; Hengeveld, Evert Jan; van Gemert, Wim; Broekhuis, A.A.

    Energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. This supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A defined reference scenario reflects the current state of

  19. Will implementation of green gas into the gas supply be feasible in the future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ir. J. Bekkering; prof. dr. Wim van Gemert; A.A. Broekhuis; Drs. E.J. Hengeveld

    2015-01-01

    energy efficiency, greenhouse gas reduction and cost price of a green gas supply chain were evaluated. This supply chain is based on co-digestion of dairy cattle manure and maize, biogas upgrading and injection into a distribution gas grid. A defined reference scenario reflects the current state of

  20. A Policy study on stabilization of heating oil supply and demand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Bok Jae [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    As a principal heating fuel for household and commercial sector, and a heat source fuel for industry, the heating oil shows its great demand intensively during a specific period (wintertime) due to its characteristics. It represents that the fluctuation of heating oil demand throughout the year is very extreme. Therefore, the stable supply of heating oil has been rising as an important task. It is desirable to develop and supply a new type of heating oil compounded of kerosene and gasoline with appropriate ratio for short- and mid-term to have a stable supply and demand of heating oil. For long-term prospect, it is desirable to supply petroleum products mixing gasoline and B-C oil as heating oil when it is equipped with combustion technology of boiler and distribution system. In this case, it is required to have investment on infrastructure for the supply of new heating oil (mixture of gasoline and B-C oil) and a proper preparatory period for the conversion of equipment (such as a boiler). The vitalization of storing oil is essential to stabilize the supply and demand of heating oil. In order to vitalize it, the price of heating oil should be determined by a market function reflecting the seasonal supply and demand circumstances. (author). 101 refs., 5 figs., 83 tabs.

  1. Global supply and demand of metals in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backman, Carl-Magnus

    2008-01-01

    This article is a short review on the subject of diminishing mineral resources in a world with increasing population. The concepts of reserves, resources, and life index are described. A forecast is made on the global consumption in the year 2050 of the metals iron (Fe), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb). Evidence indicates that a physical depletion of metals does not occur (fixed stock paradigm) but certain metals will become too expensive to extract (opportunity cost paradigm). The future demand for cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), and selenium (Se) is presented. Finally, some metals presently of great interest for mineral prospectors that may have an important role in the future society are presented.

  2. A Supply and Demand Management Perspective on the Accelerated Global Introductions of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in a Constrained Supply Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ian; Ottosen, Ann; Rubin, Jennifer; Blanc, Diana Chang; Zipursky, Simona; Wootton, Emily

    2017-07-01

    A total of 105 countries have introduced IPV as of September 2016 of which 85 have procured the vaccine through UNICEF. The Global Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 called for the rapid introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization schedules in 126 all OPV-using countries by the end of 2015. At the time of initiating the procurement process, demand was estimated based on global modeling rather than individual country indications. In its capacity as procurement agency for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF set out to secure access to IPV supply for around 100 countries. Based on offers received, sufficient supply was awarded to two manufacturers to meet projected routine requirements. However, due to technical issues scaling up vaccine production and an unforecasted demand for IPV use in campaigns to interrupt wild polio virus and to control type 2 vaccine derived polio virus outbreaks, IPV supplies are severely constrained. Activities to stretch supplies and to suppress demand have been ongoing since 2014, including delaying IPV introduction in countries where risks of type 2 reintroduction are lower, implementing the multi-dose vial policy, and encouraging the use of fractional dose delivered intradermally. Despite these efforts, there is still insufficient IPV supply to meet demand. The impact of the supply situation on IPV introduction timelines in countries are the focus of this article, and based on lessons learned with the IPV introductions, it is recommended for future health programs with accelerated scale up of programs, to take a cautious approach on supply commitments, putting in place clear allocation criteria in case of shortages or delays and establishing a communication strategy vis a vis beneficiaries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  3. A Supply and Demand Management Perspective on the Accelerated Global Introductions of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in a Constrained Supply Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottosen, Ann; Rubin, Jennifer; Blanc, Diana Chang; Zipursky, Simona; Wootton, Emily

    2017-01-01

    Abstract A total of 105 countries have introduced IPV as of September 2016 of which 85 have procured the vaccine through UNICEF. The Global Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 called for the rapid introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine immunization schedules in 126 all OPV-using countries by the end of 2015. At the time of initiating the procurement process, demand was estimated based on global modeling rather than individual country indications. In its capacity as procurement agency for the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, UNICEF set out to secure access to IPV supply for around 100 countries. Based on offers received, sufficient supply was awarded to two manufacturers to meet projected routine requirements. However, due to technical issues scaling up vaccine production and an unforecasted demand for IPV use in campaigns to interrupt wild polio virus and to control type 2 vaccine derived polio virus outbreaks, IPV supplies are severely constrained. Activities to stretch supplies and to suppress demand have been ongoing since 2014, including delaying IPV introduction in countries where risks of type 2 reintroduction are lower, implementing the multi-dose vial policy, and encouraging the use of fractional dose delivered intradermally. Despite these efforts, there is still insufficient IPV supply to meet demand. The impact of the supply situation on IPV introduction timelines in countries are the focus of this article, and based on lessons learned with the IPV introductions, it is recommended for future health programs with accelerated scale up of programs, to take a cautious approach on supply commitments, putting in place clear allocation criteria in case of shortages or delays and establishing a communication strategy vis a vis beneficiaries. PMID:28838159

  4. Current economic downturn and supply chain : The significance of demand and inventory smoothing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cannella, S.; Ashayeri, J.; Miranda, P.A.; Bruccoleri, M.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply

  5. A Comparison of Supply and Demand for PETE Professionals in Higher Education in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, B. Ann; Rikard, G. Linda

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the supply and demand issues of D-PETE professionals in higher education. The three concerns addressed were: (a) doctoral graduates and their respective job placements in the academic years of 1996-97 through 2008-09, (b) an examination of two targeted academic years (2005-06 and 2008-09) to determine the supply of entry level…

  6. The Supply and Demand of Elementary and Secondary School Teachers in the United States. ERIC Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasin, Said

    This Digest examines U.S. teacher supply and demand, including projections for the next 10 years. For the past 10 years, the supply of public elementary and secondary school teachers has grown. Currently, the number of teachers in the United States is 3.1 million, 2,666,034 of whom teach in public schools. The number is projected to increase by…

  7. Strategic planning of building stock. Adjusting quality of demand and supply focusing on energy saving measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-06-01

    This working book aims at supporting the strategic supply management and the associated daily practice of housing management, from vision to implementation. Strategic supply management is defined as offering living qualities that are in demand now and in the future. [mk] [nl

  8. DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2016-01-01

    Fine-grained device-level predictions of both shiftable and non-shiftable energy demand and supply is vital in order to take advantage of Demand Response (DR) for efficient utilization of Renewable Energy Sources. The selection of an effective device-level load forecast model is a challenging task......, mainly due to the diversity of the models and the lack of proper tools and datasets that can be used to validate them. In this paper, we introduce the DeMand system for fine-tuning, analyzing, and validating the device-level forecast models. The system offers several built-in device-level measurement...... datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

  9. Finding the food-fuel balance. Supply and demand dynamics in global vegetable oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savanti, P.

    2012-10-15

    Demand for vegetable oils for food and biofuel use is expected to increase by an additional 23 million tonnes by 2016; however supply is expected to struggle to keep up with this demand, according to this Rabobank report. Vegetable oil stocks have reached a 38 year low this year due in large part to constraints such as land availability and adverse weather.

  10. Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Spalding-Fecher, R

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study presents long-term electricity supply and demand scenarios for the twelve countries in the Southern African Power Pool, based on detailed bottom-up demand analysis for all countries and a set of internally consistent development scenarios...

  11. Data Science in Supply Chain Management: Data-Related Influences on Demand Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yao

    2013-01-01

    Data-driven decisions have become an important aspect of supply chain management. Demand planners are tasked with analyzing volumes of data that are being collected at a torrential pace from myriad sources in order to translate them into actionable business intelligence. In particular, demand volatilities and planning are vital for effective and…

  12. The determinants of the demand and supply of eggs in Ibadan, Oyo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The hypothesis that the presence of broiler enterprise on the farm limits the quantity of eggs supplied was upheld, so also was the hypothesis that the income elasticity of demand for eggs was positive. Layers mash was found to be highly price elastic; the own price elasticity of demand for eggs was found also to be elastic ...

  13. Analysis of the Structure of Labour Supply and Demand in Four ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Analysis of the Structure of Labour Supply and Demand in Four Target Sectors in Saint-Louis and Louga (Sénégal) ... The project identified four areas in which semi-skilled labour was in high demand - agriculture (market gardening, cereals), fishing, textiles and cattle-raising - not only in the study area but also in the country ...

  14. Analysis and Strategies of the Unbalance of the Supply and Demand in the Higher Education Market of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie

    2010-01-01

    The popularization of higher education largely impacts the balance of the supply and demand of the China higher education market. Starting from the basic concepts of the supply and demand of higher education, the actuality and influencing factors of the supply and demand in China higher education market are analyzed in this article, and…

  15. Natural graphite demand and supply - Implications for electric vehicle battery requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Donald W.; Virta, Robert L.; Mahdavi, Mahbood; Sangine, Elizabeth S.; Fortier, Steven M.

    2016-01-01

    Electric vehicles have been promoted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen U.S. dependence on petroleum for transportation. Growth in U.S. sales of electric vehicles has been hindered by technical difficulties and the high cost of the lithium-ion batteries used to power many electric vehicles (more than 50% of the vehicle cost). Groundbreaking has begun for a lithium-ion battery factory in Nevada that, at capacity, could manufacture enough batteries to power 500,000 electric vehicles of various types and provide economies of scale to reduce the cost of batteries. Currently, primary synthetic graphite derived from petroleum coke is used in the anode of most lithium-ion batteries. An alternate may be the use of natural flake graphite, which would result in estimated graphite cost reductions of more than US$400 per vehicle at 2013 prices. Most natural flake graphite is sourced from China, the world's leading graphite producer. Sourcing natural flake graphite from deposits in North America could reduce raw material transportation costs and, given China's growing internal demand for flake graphite for its industries and ongoing environmental, labor, and mining issues, may ensure a more reliable and environmentally conscious supply of graphite. North America has flake graphite resources, and Canada is currently a producer, but most new mining projects in the United States require more than 10 yr to reach production, and demand could exceed supplies of flake graphite. Natural flake graphite may serve only to supplement synthetic graphite, at least for the short-term outlook.

  16. Market opening: how will European gas supply evolve?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delon, Ch.

    1999-01-01

    With the implementation of the gas directive, European gas companies are facing many new challenges. Some concern the upstream gas sector in particular, notably with the new rules of competition in Europe, the changes in the structure of gas industries and their adaptation to the new Europe-wide market. For this first round table to the 116. gas conference, chaired by Sophie Mayeux, journalist and editor of the Est Eco journal, four representatives of major European companies and one representative of the banking sector examined the possible future scenarios for gas supply in Europe. (authors)

  17. Availability/reliability of gas supplies are concerns for utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that long-term economical and reliable fuel contracts are imperative for increased use of natural gas. Demand for natural gas grew by 3.3% in 1991 to 19.3 trillion cubic feet (tcf) according to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA). during 1992, EIA expects natural gas demand to grow about 1.8%. However, EIA predicts that natural gas demand will be down slightly in the electric power sector. This is despite the potential for continuing lower gas prices and availability. wellhead prices for natural gas fell by more than 9% in 1991. Although EIA forecasts a decline in natural gas use by electric utilities, a study undertaken by ICF Resources for Enron Power Services, Inc. expects natural gas consumption in the power industry to increase in the 1990s. ICF says that the growth will occur because many new plants will be gas-fired, many existing electric utility power plants designed for oil and/or natural gas operation will use natural gas, and about half of new non-utility power plants will be gas-fired

  18. Estimating future dental services' demand and supply: a model for Northern Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäger, Ralf; van den Berg, Neeltje; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A; Schwendicke, Falk

    2016-04-01

    To plan dental services, a spatial estimation of future demands and supply is required. We aimed at estimating demand and supply in 2030 in Northern Germany based on the expected local socio-demography and oral-health-related morbidity, and the predicted number of dentists and their working time. All analyses were performed on zip-code level. Register data were used to determine the number of retiring dentists and to construct regression models for estimating the number of dentists moving into each zip-code area until 2030. Demand was modelled using projected demography and morbidities. Demand-supply ratios were evaluated and spatial analyses applied. Sensitivity analyses were employed to assess robustness of our findings. Compared with 2011, the population decreased (-7% to -11%) and aged (from mean 46 to 51 years) until 2030. Oral-health-related morbidity changed, leading to more periodontal and fewer prosthetic treatments needs, with the overall demand decreasing in all scenarios (-25% to -33%). In contrast, the overall number of dentists did only limitedly change, resulting in moderate decrease in the supplied service quantities (max. -22%). Thus, the demand-supply ratio increased in all but the worst case scenario, but was unequally distributed between spatial units, with several areas being over- and some being under- or none-serviced in 2030. Within the limitations of the underlying data and the required assumptions, this study expects an increasingly polarized ratio of dental services demand and supply in Northern Germany. Our estimation allows to assess the impact of different influence factors on demand or supply and to specifically identify potential challenges for workforce planning and regulation in different spatial units. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Industrial natural gas supply options in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Information is provided on the availability and cost of natural gas in British Columbia for use by firms interested in establishing gas-intensive industrial facilities in the province. British Columbia has an abundant supply of natural gas, originating mainly from deposits in the westernmost part of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in the northeast part of the province. Recoverable resources in British Columbia are estimated at 1,000-1,400 billion m 3 . Over 200 producers compete to sell natural gas for both domestic and export markets. Gathering, processing, and transmission of the gas is undertaken mainly by the Westcoast Energy pipeline system, and distribution is undertaken by several distribution utilities. At present, all large industrial gas users buy their firm gas requirements directly from gas producers, often using gas marketers or brokers to assist in purchasing. Regulation of the gas industry is performed by the British Columbia Utilities Commission, which sets rules for energy supply contracts, and by the National Energy Board, which sets tolls for gathering, processing, and transporting gas. Factors affecting gas pricing are discussed, with reference to both the wellhead price and the cost of gathering, processing, and transportation. Firm gas costs for two hypothetical industrial loads in British Columbia are illustrated. Potential intensive uses of natural gas in the province are outlined, including power generation, liquefaction for export, manufacturing, production of direct reduced iron, and as petrochemical feedstocks. 5 figs., 2 tabs

  20. Long term natural gas supply in North America: prospects for mexican exports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elizalde Baltierra, A.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this work is to discuss the most important factors and uncertainties likely to affect future Mexican natural gas exports to the United States. Firstly, we study the long term natural gas supply/demand balance in North America over the period from 2000 to 2020. Secondly, we analyze the main driving forces determining future natural gas supply and demand in Mexico, which also allows us to discuss the prospects for Mexican gas exports. Finally, our analysis suggests that: in the short and medium term (2000-2010), Mexico will probably continue to increase imports of USA gas in order to satisfy increasing demand and will probably not export large volumes of gas to the USA; in the long term (2020-2020), Mexico could resume exports to the USA in sizeable quantities. Two main conditions appear necessary to resume exports: Premex's budgetary constraints should be relaxed and/or new foreign investment should be able to participate in the Mexican upstream oil and gas sector. (author)

  1. Re-assessment of woodfuel supply and demand relationships in Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Top, Neth; Ty, Sokhun; Mizoue, Nobuya; Ito, Satoshi; Kai, Shigetaka; Nakao, Toshio

    2006-01-01

    This study re-examined a previously published relationship between supply and demand for woodfuel at different spatial scales within Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia. We considered three different scales: The first was the whole area of the province. The second scale calculated village-scale data in zones of 1, 3, and 5km from each village and then aggregated for all villages of the province. The third scale also calculated data for the three zones at the village-scale, but the data were then aggregated according to three regional groupings based on population density and forest availability. When evaluating woodfuel supply, we excluded biomass increment of trees with diameter larger than 30cm because it was found that local people rarely collect trees larger than 30cm for fuel. On the demand side, dead wood, which was included in the previous assessment, and woodfuel obtained from non-forest sources were excluded to enable comparison of supply and demand that related only to living trees originating from forests. The re-assessment revealed large decreases in both supply and demand at each scale as compared with our previous assessment; supply reduced by 46% and demand by 36% at the whole province scale. However, the ratios of supply to demand at each scale examined were very similar for both assessments. This re-assessment therefore supports our previous findings: there is a deficiency in woodfuel resources in areas of high population density along the main road due to high woodfuel demand and a predominance of agricultural land and regrowth forest in close proximity to villages. This study underscores the usefulness of taking detailed woodfuel consumption patterns into account when assessing the impact of woodfuel demand on forests. For a more accurate assessment on the sustainability of woodfuel resources and utilization, further research is needed to project future woodfuel demand, not only for green wood from forested sources, but also for dead wood and

  2. An Automation System for Optimizing a Supply Chain Network Design under the Influence of Demand Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Polany, Rany

    2012-01-01

    This research develops and applies an integrated hierarchical framework for modeling a multi-echelon supply chain network design, under the influence of demand uncertainty. The framework is a layered integration of two levels: macro, high-level scenario planning combined with micro, low-level Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainties in demand. To facilitate rapid simulation of the effects of demand uncertainty, the integrated framework was implemented as a dashboard automation system using Mic...

  3. Commercial gas utilization in the Netherlands. Six years of the Marketing Plan Public Gas Supply (MOG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoelen, Q.E.J.J.M.; Bartholomeus, P.H.J.; Mallon, W.Ch.

    1998-01-01

    In 1992, Gasunie (Dutch natural gas trading company) started its marketing plan for the public natural gas supply (MOG, abbreviated in Dutch). The aim is to promote the use of natural gas in cooperation with gas utilities. For the commercial sector many different gas appliances are available: high-efficiency deep-frying pans for the catering sector, gas-fired air humidifiers for office and public buildings, gas-fired tumble dryers for small and medium-sized businesses, etc

  4. Current supply and demand of veterinarians in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuaki Sugiura

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Since 1966, approximately 1 000 veterinarians graduate each year from 16 veterinary schools in Japan. According to reports submitted by veterinarians to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in January 2007, there were over 35 818 veterinarians in Japan at the end of 2006. Of this total, 13 202 (36.8% were engaged in companion animal practice, 9 112 (25.4% were civil servants and 4 180 (11.7% were engaged in food animal practice. The total number of veterinarians has increased gradually over the past 40 years. Recently, the number of veterinarians engaged in companion animal practice has increased while the number of veterinarians engaged in food animal practice is declining. These trends reflect the change in demand for veterinarians in food and companion animal practice, resulting mainly from changes in the number of food animals and companion animals in recent years. The number of veterinarians in the public sector has decreased gradually due to the administrative reforms of recent years.

  5. The spread model of food safety risk under the supply-demand disturbance

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Jining; Chen, Tingqiang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, based on the imbalance of the supply-demand relationship of food, we design a spreading model of food safety risk, which is about from food producers to consumers in the food supply chain. We use theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to describe the supply-demand relationship and government supervision behaviors? influence on the risk spread of food safety and the behaviors of the food producers and the food retailers. We also analyze the influence of the awareness of c...

  6. EU Security of Gas Supplies: Solidarity Runs Through the Pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoun, Marie-Claire; Rutten, Daan

    2016-05-01

    The ongoing efforts to lessen the European Union's (EU) vulnerability to gas shortages by adopting internal measures were triggered by the Ukrainian gas disputes of 2006 and 2009. The latter deprived several EU Member States of 20% of their gas supplies (30% of imports) for 14 days in the middle of winter due to tensions with Russia. This prompted Member States in 2010 to adopt a Regulation for the Security of Gas Supply, replacing the skeletal 2004 Directive. Since 2014, tensions have increased significantly between the EU and Russia, the block's main gas supplier. Although this has not led to any gas supply disruptions in Europe, and this time Ukraine has been able to revert to reverse flows, national production and storage withdrawals to replace the Russian gas flows, there remains a perceived elevated risk of gas supply disruptions to the EU, especially by certain Member States. This led the European Commission (EC) to publish its first-ever European Energy Security Strategy in May 2014, which was followed by the Gas Stress Tests of October 2014. In February 2015, the EC published its Energy Union Strategy Framework, which was strongly motivated by energy security concerns. In that context, the EC announced a series of proposals for its gas and electricity markets in 2016 and 2017, among which was the 'Sustainable Energy Security Package' (hereafter: Package). This Package, published in February 2016, consists of four proposals. Two of them have a legislative nature, namely a Regulation for Security of Gas Supply and a Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements on energy. The two non-legislative proposals are strategy papers dealing respectively with LNG and Gas Storage, and Heating and Cooling. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the proposed Regulation and to offer considerations on some of its provisions, in particular on the move from the national to the regional level of cooperation and on the legislative formalization of solidarity. (author)

  7. Economic and energy supply and demand outlook towards FY 2014 of Japan. Japan was in a crucial moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagisawa, Akira; Yoshioka, Takayuki; Suzuki, Hidenori; Choi, Jongwon; Ikarii, Ryohei; Iwata, Sohei; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Ito, Kokichi

    2014-01-01

    This outlook showed prospects of economy and energy supply and demand (S and D) towards FY2014 of Japan taking account of Japanese economy recovery thanks to 'Abenomics', unclear power S and D balance, restarts of NPPs and increase in renewables dominated by solar PV. Impacts of restart of NPPs were so great and hoped prompt procedures after finishing the highest-level safety assessment. Fast expansion of renewables generating 7% of power generation and their increased burden on consumers (Feed-In-Tariff) required system improvements for adequate and sustainable introduction of renewables. Impacts of removing customs by the TPP increased energy demand due to the economic expansion by 0.9%. Primary energy supply turned to increase due to the expansion of the economic activities while electricity savings and energy conservation exerted downward pressure on demand. As for Macro economy, GDP growth slowed due to retroaction decrease by the last-minute demand of tax raise. Energy consumption decreased in two years due to slowing recovery and both natural gas and coal consumption hit new high. Steady growth of city gas, slight increase of electricity and sharp drop of fuel oil would be for energy sales. CO 2 emissions decreased in FY2014 after hit the historical high in FY2013. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

    1982-01-01

    A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

  9. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  10. Classical gas: Hearty prices, robust demand combine to pump breezy optimism through 2005 forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunan, D.

    2005-01-01

    The outlook for natural gas in 2005 is said to be a watershed year, with a lengthy list of developments that could have significant effect on the industry for many years to come. In light of continuing high demand and static supply prospects, prices will have to continue to be high in order to ensure the necessary infrastructure investments to keep gas flowing from multiple sources to the consumer. It is predicted that against the backdrop of robust prices several supply initiatives will continue to advance rapidly in 2005, such as the $7 billion Mackenzie Gas Project on which public hearings are expected to start this summer, along with regulatory clarity about the $20 billion Alaska Highway Natural Gas Pipeline Project to move North Slope gas to southern markets. Drilling of new gas wells will continue to approach or even surpass 18,000 new wells, with an increasing number of these being coal-bed methane wells. Despite high level drilling activity, supply is expected to grow only about 400 MMcf per day. Greater supply increments are expected through continued LNG terminal development, although plans for new LNG terminal development have been met with stiff resistance from local residents both in Canada and the United States. Imports of liquefied natural gas into the United States slowed dramatically in 2004 under the severe short-term downward pressure on natural gas prices, nevertheless, these imports are expected to rebound to new record highs in 2005. Capacity is expected to climb from about 2.55 Bcf per day in 2004 to as much as 6.4 Bcf per day by late 2007. At least one Canadian import facility, Anadarko's one Bcf per day Bear Head terminal on Nova Scotia's Strait of Canso, is expected to become operational by late 2007 or early 2008. 6 photos

  11. Coordination of Supply Chain with a Dominant Retailer under Demand Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop a coordination model of a one-manufacturer multi-retailers supply chain with a dominant retailer. We consider the impact of a dominant retailer on the market retail price and his sales promotion opportunity and examine how the manufacturer can coordinate such a supply chain by revenue-sharing contract after demand disruptions. We address the following important research questions in this paper. (i How do we design an appropriate revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain with a dominant retailer without demand disruptions? (ii When demand is disrupted with variations in market scale and price sensitive coefficient, can the original contract still be valid? (iii How do the demand disruptions affect the coordination mechanism under different disruption scenarios and how should the new contract change? Finally, we generate important insights by both analytical and numerical examples.

  12. [Influence factors on supply and demand changes in the field of acupuncture and moxibustion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bin; Li, Ping

    2011-11-01

    Based on principles of health economy and the present situation, the possibility and regularity on changes in the supply and demand field of acupuncture and moxibustion through various viewpoints were analyzed, which included demand and supply elasticity of acup-mox services to market price and the relevant factors, categories and nature of acup-mox services, business idea of supplier on the strength of marginal cost and marginal benefit, expenditure level and inclination of demander, complementary and substitutive treatment of acup-mox therapy, and the relevant time and geographic factors to change in quantity demand and supply. Therefore, it could be applied as reference to redaction and reform of the relevant health economics policy by health administrative management.

  13. Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J.; Bird, L.

    2007-10-01

    In recent years, the demand for renewable electricity has accelerated as a consequence of state and federal policies and the growth of voluntary green power purchase markets, along with the generally improving economics of renewable energy development. This paper reports on a preliminary examination of the supply and demand balance for renewable electricity in the United States, with a focus on renewable energy projects that meet the generally accepted definition of "new" for voluntary market purposes, i.e., projects installed on or after January 1, 1997. After estimating current supply and demand, this paper presents projections of the supply and demand balance out to 2010 and describe a number of key market uncertainties.

  14. The global nuclear fuel market - supply and demand 1995-2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keese, H.; Kidd, S.

    1996-01-01

    The findings and main conclusions of the 1996 supply and demand report of the Uranium Institute are summarised. The previous report was published in June 1994. In 1994 and 1995, world uranium production remained at a relatively depressed level, accounting for just over half reactor requirements only. Since mid 1995, however, some increase in production has occurred alongside rises in uranium spot market prices. This may indicate that supply is becoming tighter and indicate the end of the perception that supply availability is unlimited. Answers are attempted to the questions about the future which arise from this development. Nuclear power is first set in the context of the market for energy and for electricity in particular. The report then identifies key issues for the longer term future for nuclear power and considers various aspects of nuclear fuel supply and demand over the next 20 years. Three demand scenarios are explored. Even in the lower requirements case, the overall conclusion is that supply will only meet demand from 2002 onwards when all the projected new mine capacity is in place. Adequate supply is heavily dependent on other supply sources in the higher case scenarios. The market will need the entry of blended down high enriched uranium from dismantled weapons and an increased contribution from the reprocessing of spent fuel. Additional primary production is only likely if financial incentives are available and the regulatory framework permits. Finally, there is the possibility of re-enriching depleted uranium. (9 figures). (UK)

  15. Surging electricity demand growth bolsters outlook for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koen, A.D.

    1994-01-01

    Economic expansion and regulatory reform are combining to boost global opportunities for burning gas to generate electric power. Companies producing, marketing, or transporting gas are capitalizing on the improved outlook by seizing on synergistic roles in the power generation chain. Much of the improved outlook for gas stems from projected hearty increases in global demand for electricity. Bechtel Power Corp., estimates global power generation capacity during 1994--2003 will increase to as much as 1.2 billion kw, about 25% of which could be added by independent power production (IPPs). Since about 200 bcf of gas reserves producing about 20 MMcfd of gas is needed to fuel of a 100,000 kw electric generating station for 25 years, that adds up to a major growth opportunity for gas producers. The paper discusses the assessment of gas reserves, US power growth, the intent of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (Epact), effects of Epact, gas industry response, power marketing units, synergistic possibilities, effects on US utilities, international power imperatives, non-US projects, funding good projects, and forecasting future developments

  16. Supply-demand balance in outward-directed networks and Kleiber's law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Painter Page R

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent theories have attempted to derive the value of the exponent α in the allometric formula for scaling of basal metabolic rate from the properties of distribution network models for arteries and capillaries. It has recently been stated that a basic theorem relating the sum of nutrient currents to the specific nutrient uptake rate, together with a relationship claimed to be required in order to match nutrient supply to nutrient demand in 3-dimensional outward-directed networks, leads to Kleiber's law (b = 3/4. Methods The validity of the supply-demand matching principle and the assumptions required to prove the basic theorem are assessed. The supply-demand principle is evaluated by examining the supply term and the demand term in outward-directed lattice models of nutrient and water distribution systems and by applying the principle to fractal-like models of mammalian arterial systems. Results Application of the supply-demand principle to bifurcating fractal-like networks that are outward-directed does not predict 3/4-power scaling, and evaluation of water distribution system models shows that the matching principle does not match supply to demand in such systems. Furthermore, proof of the basic theorem is shown to require that the covariance of nutrient uptake and current path length is 0, an assumption unlikely to be true in mammalian arterial systems. Conclusion The supply-demand matching principle does not lead to a satisfactory explanation for the approximately 3/4-power scaling of mammalian basal metabolic rate.

  17. A New EU Gas Security of Supply Architecture?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Jong, J. [Clingendael International Energy Programme CIEP, The Hague (Netherlands); Glachant, J.M.; Ahner, N. [European University Institute EUI, San Domenico di Fiesole (Italy); Hafner, M.; Tagliapietra, S. [Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei FEEM, Milan (Italy)

    2012-07-15

    A series of workshops has been organized in order to take stock and discuss a possible new architecture for EU gas security. Discussions and reflections reported from the workshops held under this project have developed into the concluding ideas and recommendations for a new EU gas security of supply architecture, which are reflected in this article.

  18. Europe's gas consumption and imports to increase with adequate low cost supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, P.R.

    1997-01-01

    Gas in Europe has always been sold above its long-run supply price. Lower prices, however, still permit profitable indigeneous supply expansion. As further reductions in production and transport costs from technological advances are expected, this will continue based on the exploitation of large proven and probable reserves. By 2025, indigeneous output will be 60% up on 1995. Nevertheless, an average 2.2%/annum growth in gas demand will increase import dependence from 130 to 320 BCM over this period. Future international oil prices indicate gas-equivalent border values adequate to secure profitable supply from a range of external sources, leading to continuing competition for markets and the diversification of imports. (9 tables; 31 references). (author)

  19. Coordinating a Supply Chain with Risk-Averse Agents under Demand and Consumer Returns Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the optimal order decision in a supply chain when it faces uncertain demand and uncertain consumer returns. We build consumer returns model with decision-makers’ risk preference under mean-variance objective framework and discuss supply chain coordination problem under wholesale-price-only policy and the manufacturer’s buyback policy, respectively. We find that, with wholesale price policy, the supply chain cannot be coordinated whether the supply chain agents are risk-neutral or risk-averse. However, with buyback policy, the supply chain can be coordinated and the profit of the supply chain can be arbitrarily allocated between the manufacturer and the retailer. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the impact of stochastic consumer returns and the supply chain agents’ risk attitude on the optimal order decision.

  20. Gas-export potential will grow until domestic economies hike local demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.; Stram, B.

    1993-01-01

    Prospects appear good for near-term growth of exportable natural-gas supplies for some member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). These conclusions are a result of Enron Corp.'s recent investigations in the C.I.S. and other former Soviet republics. They are based on data obtained in cooperation with Vinigaz, the research arm of the Russian state gas concern Gazprom, and from various other research and consulting groups. These studies indicate that gas-export potential will grow as local demand for gas shrinks in the C.I.S. (as the energy needs of the individual republics decline during the period of economic transition) and while the C.I.S.-area countries continue to require foreign currency to help fund redevelopment and reduce debt. This concluding of two articles reviews the economic outlook for outside investment in the oil, gas, and gas-liquids infrastructure and the role of natural-gas supply and price in the development of domestic and export markets