WorldWideScience

Sample records for gap analysis decision

  1. Analysis of Pedestrian Gap Acceptance and Crossing Decision in Kuala Lumpur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Nor Siti Naquiyah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pedestrians are most vulnerable of all road users. This research aims to investigate and model pedestrian road crossing behaviour at crossing facilities. In particular, they have two aspects of pedestrians crossing behaviour are examined, namely the size of traffic gaps acceptance by pedestrians and the decision of pedestrians either to cross the road or not. A fields survey was carried out at six crossing facilities which from a zebra crossing at midblock. In this survey, the data were recorded in real traffic condition using video recorder. Determine the associations between characteristics of pedestrians, crossing facilities and vehicular traffic through on-site observations of pedestrian behaviour. This data will analysis using statistical analysis which is multiple regression and binary logit regression method. It is hope that through this research, the model of pedestrian gap acceptance and pedestrian crossing decision can be reached and what are the indicators that pedestrians look for when accepting gaps to cross the road.

  2. GAP Analysis Program (GAP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Kansas GAP Analysis Land Cover database depicts 43 land cover classes for the state of Kansas. The database was generated using a two-stage hybrid classification...

  3. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  4. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  5. Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, Joanna D.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.; Buskens, Erik

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of

  6. SRTC - Gap Analysis Table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M.L. Johnson

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to review the existing SRTC design against the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) [Ref. 10] requirements and to identify codes and standards and supplemental requirements to meet these requirements. If these codes and standards and supplemental requirements can not fully meet these safety requirements then a ''gap'' is identified. These gaps will be identified here and addressed using the ''Site Rail Transfer Cart (SRTC) Design Development Plan'' [Ref. 14]. The codes and standards, supplemental requirements, and design development requirements are provided in the SRTC and associated rails gap analysis table in Appendix A. Because SRTCs are credited with performing functions important to safety (ITS) in the NSDB [Ref. 10], design basis requirements are applicable to ensure equipment is available and performs required safety functions when needed. The gap analysis table is used to identify design objectives and provide a means to satisfy safety requirements. To ensure that the SRTC and rail design perform required safety Functions and meet performance criteria, this portion of the gap analysis table supplies codes and standards sections and the supplemental requirements and identifies design development requirements, if needed

  7. Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaafsma, Joanna D; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Buskens, Erik

    2009-12-01

    The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of diagnostic tests. Overview and conceptual discussion. Diagnostic research requires a stepwise approach comprising assessment of test characteristics followed by evaluation of added value, clinical outcome, and cost-effectiveness. These multiple goals are generally incompatible with a randomized design. Decision-analytic models provide an important alternative through integration of the best available evidence. Thus, critical assessment of clinical value and efficient use of resources can be achieved. Decision-analytic models should be considered part of the standard methodology in diagnostic research. They can serve as a valid alternative to diagnostic randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

  8. Gap Analysis Bulletin No. 13

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    we would like to web developer; gather comments from GAP researchers and data users. We are * facilitate collaboration among GAP projects by...N.Y. Research Grant #012/01 A. 42 Gap Analysis Bulletin No. 13, December 2005 Ga pAnalysis Smith, S. D., W. A. Brown, C. R. Smith, and M. E. Richmond... GAP will be focusing activities have greatly reduced the habitat available to support on the enduring features of the Great Lakes basin. Influences

  9. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  10. Sustainability Tools Inventory - Initial Gaps Analysis | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report identifies a suite of tools that address a comprehensive set of community sustainability concerns. The objective is to discover whether "gaps" exist in the tool suite’s analytic capabilities. These tools address activities that significantly influence resource consumption, waste generation, and hazard generation including air pollution and greenhouse gases. In addition, the tools have been evaluated using four screening criteria: relevance to community decision making, tools in an appropriate developmental stage, tools that may be transferrable to situations useful for communities, and tools with requiring skill levels appropriate to communities. This document provides an initial gap analysis in the area of community sustainability decision support tools. It provides a reference to communities for existing decision support tools, and a set of gaps for those wishing to develop additional needed tools to help communities to achieve sustainability. It contributes to SHC 1.61.4

  11. Bridging the gap among healthcare workers and decision-makers ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Bridging the gap among healthcare workers and decision-makers through improved ... Through this project, researchers will build on insights gained from previous ... and identify the critical factors required for the scale-up and integration of the ...

  12. Emplacement Gantry Gap Analysis Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornley, R.

    2005-01-01

    To date, the project has established important to safety (ITS) performance requirements for structures, systems, and components (SSCs) based on the identification and categorization of event sequences that may result in a radiological release. These performance requirements are defined within the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) (BSC 2005 [DIRS 171512], Table A-11). Further, SSCs credited with performing safety functions are classified as ITS. In turn, assurance that these SSCs will perform as required is sought through the use of consensus codes and standards. This gap analysis is based on the design completed for license application only. Accordingly, identification of ITS SSCs beyond those defined within the NSDB are based on designs that may be subject to further development during detail design. Furthermore, several design alternatives may still be under consideration to satisfy certain safety functions, and final selection will not be determined until further design development has occurred. Therefore, for completeness, alternative designs currently under consideration will be discussed throughout this study. This gap analysis will evaluate each code and standard identified within the ''Emplacement Gantry ITS Standards Identification Study'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173586]) to ensure each ITS performance requirement is fully satisfied. When a performance requirement is not fully satisfied, a gap is highlighted. This study will identify requirements to supplement or augment the code or standard to meet performance requirements. Further, this gap analysis will identify nonstandard areas of the design that will be subject to a design development plan. Nonstandard components and nonstandard design configurations are defined as areas of the design that do not follow standard industry practices or codes and standards. Whereby, assurance that an SSC will perform as required may not be readily sought though the use of consensus standards. This

  13. Gap Analysis: Rethinking the Conceptual Foundations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-04-23

    there could exist a basis for gap in capability and, therefore, a desire to close the capability gap . What one desires versus what one has is, in...Analysis is not intended to close the space between the most distant extremes or the rarest occurrences. Rather, Gap Analysis is centered on the larger...åÖÉ=======- 13 - = = Research Objectives The process of identifying needs and unsatisfied desires, or gaps in capability—in essence, the goal—is

  14. Gap Analysis: Application to Earned Value Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Langford, Gary O.; Franck, Raymond (Chip)

    2008-01-01

    Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program) Earned Value is regarded as a useful tool to monitor commercial and defense system acquisitions. This paper applies the theoretical foundations and systematics of Gap Analysis to improve Earned Value Management. As currently implemented, Earned Value inaccurately provides a higher value for the work performed. This preliminary research indicates that Earned Value calculations can be corrected. Value Analysis, properly defined and enacted,...

  15. Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

  16. Gap Surface Plasmon Waveguide Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Grøndahl; Bozhevolnyi, Sergey I.

    2014-01-01

    Plasmonic waveguides supporting gap surface plasmons (GSPs) localized in a dielectric spacer between metal films are investigated numerically and the waveguiding properties at telecommunication wavelengths are presented. Especially, we emphasize that the mode confinement can advantageously...

  17. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  18. Barriers for an effective communication around clinical decision making: an analysis of the gaps between doctors' and patients' point of view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mira, José Joaquín; Guilabert, Mercedes; Pérez-Jover, Virtudes; Lorenzo, Susana

    2014-12-01

    There are doubts on whether patients feel that they have sufficient information for actively participating in clinical decisions. To describe the type of information that patients receive. To determine whether patients consider this information sufficient, and whether it contributes or not to improve clinical safety. To identify the barriers for patient participation in clinical decision making. Cross-sectional study with 764 patients and 327 physicians. Fourteen health centres belonging to three primary care districts and three hospitals in Spain. Just 35.1% (268) (95% CI 32.2, 39.1%) of patients preferred to have the last word in clinical decisions. Age (39 vs. 62%, P communication by the patients. Only 19.6% (64) (95% CI 15.4, 24.2%) of doctors considered that they could intervene to involve patients in the decisions. The majority of patients prefer the decisions to be made by their doctor, especially those with more severe illnesses, and older patients. Patients are not normally informed about medication interactions, precautions and foreseeable complications. The information provided by general practitioners does not seem to contribute enough to the patient involvement in clinical safety. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. GAP Analysis. Bulletin Number 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    dynamics into ecotoxicology . Pages 281-317 in O.E. Rhodes, Jr., R.K. Chesser, and M.H. Smith, editors. Population dynamics in ecological space and time...current stewardship chapter of the GAP handbook states that ... human-induced barren, cultivated exotic-dominated, or ar- "...the process of categorizing...least some level of protection, very sible. The initial data used in developing the map was remotely little of our scrub/shrub, grassland, or cultivated

  20. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  1. The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

    2011-08-01

    Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards

  2. Exposing ecological and economic costs of the research-implementation gap and compromises in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kareksela, Santtu; Moilanen, Atte; Ristaniemi, Olli; Välivaara, Reima; Kotiaho, Janne S

    2018-02-01

    The frequently discussed gap between conservation science and practice is manifest in the gap between spatial conservation prioritization plans and their implementation. We analyzed the research-implementation gap of one zoning case by comparing results of a spatial prioritization analysis aimed at avoiding ecological impact of peat mining in a regional zoning process with the final zoning plan. We examined the relatively complex planning process to determine the gaps among research, zoning, and decision making. We quantified the ecological costs of the differing trade-offs between ecological and socioeconomic factors included in the different zoning suggestions by comparing the landscape-level loss of ecological features (species occurrences, habitat area, etc.) between the different solutions for spatial allocation of peat mining. We also discussed with the scientists and planners the reasons for differing zoning suggestions. The implemented plan differed from the scientists suggestion in that its focus was individual ecological features rather than all the ecological features for which there were data; planners and decision makers considered effects of peat mining on areas not included in the prioritization analysis; zoning was not truly seen as a resource-allocation process and not emphasized in general minimizing ecological losses while satisfying economic needs (peat-mining potential); and decision makers based their prioritization of sites on site-level information showing high ecological value and on single legislative factors instead of finding a cost-effective landscape-level solution. We believe that if the zoning and decision-making processes are very complex, then the usefulness of science-based prioritization tools is likely to be reduced. Nevertheless, we found that high-end tools were useful in clearly exposing trade-offs between conservation and resource utilization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Gap analysis: rethinking the conceptual foundations

    OpenAIRE

    Langford, Gary O.; Franck, Raymond; Huynh, Tom; Lewis, Ira A.

    2007-01-01

    Acquisition research (Graduate School of Business & Public Policy) Gap Analysis is widely regarded as a useful tool to facilitate commercial and defense system acquisitions. This paper is a rethinking of the theoretical foundations and systematics of Gap Analysis with practical extensions to illustrate its utility and limitations. It also provides a new perspective on those theoretical foundations from the perspectives of systems and value engineering. The growing sophistication and comple...

  4. Columbia River Component Data Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L. C. Hulstrom

    2007-10-23

    This Data Gap Analysis report documents the results of a study conducted by Washington Closure Hanford (WCH) to compile and reivew the currently available surface water and sediment data for the Columbia River near and downstream of the Hanford Site. This Data Gap Analysis study was conducted to review the adequacy of the existing surface water and sediment data set from the Columbia River, with specific reference to the use of the data in future site characterization and screening level risk assessments.

  5. NEN Division Funding Gap Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, Ernst I.; Goettee, Jeffrey D.; Desimone, David J.; Lakis, Rollin E.; Miko, David K.

    2012-01-01

    The work in NEN Division revolves around proliferation detection. The sponsor funding model seems to have shifted over the last decades. For the past three lustra, sponsors are mainly interested in funding ideas and detection systems that are already at a technical readiness level 6 (TRL 6 -- one step below an industrial prototype) or higher. Once this level is reached, the sponsoring agency is willing to fund the commercialization, implementation, and training for the systems (TRL 8, 9). These sponsors are looking for a fast turnaround (1-2 years) technology development efforts to implement technology. To support the critical national and international needs for nonprolifertion solutions, we have to maintain a fluent stream of subject matter expertise from the fundamental principals of radiation detection through prototype development all the way to the implementation and training of others. NEN Division has large funding gaps in the Valley of Death region. In the current competitive climate for nuclear nonproliferation projects, it is imminent to increase our lead in this field.

  6. Unfolding the Intra-organisational Perception Gap in Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Shasha; Papanastassiou, Marina; Bassiakos, Yiannis

    2018-01-01

    of a perception gap in terms of decision-making between headquarters and subsidiaries. We argue that future research needs to carefully consider and account for the perception gap and point out the importance of the role of MNE managers in removing such barriers in order to achieve effective decision-making....

  7. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  8. Trunnion Collar Removal Machine - Gap Analysis Table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to review the existing the trunnion collar removal machine against the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) [Ref. 10] requirements and to identify codes and standards and supplemental requirements to meet these requirements. If these codes and standards can not fully meet these requirements then a ''gap'' is identified. These gaps will be identified here and addressed using the ''Trunnion Collar Removal Machine Design Development Plan'' [Ref. 15]. The codes and standards, supplemental requirements, and design development requirements for the trunnion collar removal machine are provided in the gap analysis table (Appendix A, Table 1). Because the trunnion collar removal machine is credited with performing functions important to safety (ITS) in the NSDB [Ref. 10], design basis requirements are applicable to ensure equipment is available and performs required safety functions when needed. The gap analysis table is used to identify design objectives and provide a means to satisfy safety requirements. To ensure that the trunnion collar removal machine performs required safety functions and meets performance criteria, this portion of the gap analysis tables supplies codes and standards sections and the supplemental requirements and identifies design development requirements, if needed

  9. IAEA Review for Gap Analysis of Safety Analysis Capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basic, Ivica; Kim, Manwoong; Huges, Peter; Lim, B-K; D'Auria, Francesco; Louis, Vidard Michael

    2014-01-01

    The IAEA Asian Nuclear Safety Network (ANSN) was launched in 2002 in the framework of the Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP) on the Safety of Nuclear Installations in the South East Asia, Pacific and Far East Countries. The main objective is to strengthen and expand human and advanced Information Technology (IT) network to pool, analyse and share nuclear safety knowledge and practical experience for peaceful uses in this region. Under the ANSN framework, a technical group on Safety Analysis (SATG) was established in 2004 aimed to providing a forum for the exchange of experience in the following areas of safety analysis: · To provide a forum for an exchange of experience in the area of safety analysis, · To maintain and improve the knowledge on safety analysis method, · To enhance the utilization of computer codes, · To pool and analyse the issues related with safety analysis of research reactor, and · To facilitate mutual interested on safety analysis among member countries. A sustainable and successful nuclear energy programme requires a strong technical infrastructure, including a workforce made up of highly specialized and well-educated professionals. A significant portion of this technical capacity must be dedicated to safety- especially to safety analysis- as only then can it serve as the basis for making the right decisions during the planning, licensing, construction and operation of new nuclear facilities. In this regard, the IAEA has provided ANSN member countries with comprehensive training opportunities for capacity building in safety analysis. Nevertheless, the SATG recognizes that it is difficult to achieve harmonization in this area among all member countries because of their different competency levels. Therefore, it is necessary to quickly identify the most obvious gaps in safety analysis capability and then to use existing resources to begin to fill those gaps. The goal of this Expert Mission (EM) for gap finding service is to facilitate

  10. Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lupia, S.; Giovannini, A.; Ugoccioni, R.

    1995-01-01

    Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

  11. Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lupia, S. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Giovannini, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Ugoccioni, R. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

    1995-03-01

    Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

  12. Inception report and gap analysis. Boiler inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    This inception and gap analysis report on boilers in Latvia, has been prepared in the framework of the 'Implementation of the EU directive on energy performance of buildings: development of the Latvian Scheme for energy auditing of building and inspection of boilers'. The report is the basis for the establishment of training of boiler inspectors; it develops a gap analysis for better understanding and estimating the number of installations in Latvia and develops suggestions for the institutional set up. In particular includes information on existing standard and regulation on boiler, suggestion for the content of the training material of experts for boiler inspections and a syllabus of the training course. A specific section is dedicated to the suggestion for certification system of trained boiler inspectors. (au)

  13. Inception report and gap analysis. Boiler inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    This inception and gap analysis report on boilers in Latvia, has been prepared in the framework of the 'Implementation of the EU directive on energy performance of buildings: development of the Latvian Scheme for energy auditing of building and inspection of boilers'. The report is the basis for the establishment of training of boiler inspectors; it develops a gap analysis for better understanding and estimating the number of installations in Latvia and develops suggestions for the institutional set up. In particular includes information on existing standard and regulation on boiler, suggestion for the content of the training material of experts for boiler inspections and a syllabus of the training course. A specific section is dedicated to the suggestion for certification system of trained boiler inspectors. (au)

  14. The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Stiel, M.; Durand, M.A.; Boivin, J.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a

  15. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  16. What Explains the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy? The Role of Household Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Raquel; Mullen, Kathleen J; Zamarro, Gema; Zissimopoulos, Julie

    2012-01-01

    Using newly collected data from the RAND American Life Panel, we examine potential explanations for the gender gap in financial literacy, including the role of marriage and who within a couple makes the financial decisions. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition reveals the majority of the gender gap in financial literacy is not explained by differences in the characteristics of men and women-but rather differences in coefficients, or how literacy is produced. We find that financial decision making of couples is not centralized in one spouse although it is sensitive to the relative education level of spouses.

  17. Regression analysis for bivariate gap time with missing first gap time data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chia-Hui; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2017-01-01

    We consider ordered bivariate gap time while data on the first gap time are unobservable. This study is motivated by the HIV infection and AIDS study, where the initial HIV contracting time is unavailable, but the diagnosis times for HIV and AIDS are available. We are interested in studying the risk factors for the gap time between initial HIV contraction and HIV diagnosis, and gap time between HIV and AIDS diagnoses. Besides, the association between the two gap times is also of interest. Accordingly, in the data analysis we are faced with two-fold complexity, namely data on the first gap time is completely missing, and the second gap time is subject to induced informative censoring due to dependence between the two gap times. We propose a modeling framework for regression analysis of bivariate gap time under the complexity of the data. The estimating equations for the covariate effects on, as well as the association between, the two gap times are derived through maximum likelihood and suitable counting processes. Large sample properties of the resulting estimators are developed by martingale theory. Simulations are performed to examine the performance of the proposed analysis procedure. An application of data from the HIV and AIDS study mentioned above is reported for illustration.

  18. Approximate reasoning in decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, M M; Sanchez, E

    1982-01-01

    The volume aims to incorporate the recent advances in both theory and applications. It contains 44 articles by 74 contributors from 17 different countries. The topics considered include: membership functions; composite fuzzy relations; fuzzy logic and inference; classifications and similarity measures; expert systems and medical diagnosis; psychological measurements and human behaviour; approximate reasoning and decision analysis; and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

  19. Gaps in tools assessing the energy implications of renovation versus rebuilding decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goldstein, Benjamin Paul; Herbøl, Mads; Meza, Maria Josefina Figueroa

    2013-01-01

    to evaluate project level energy-related decisions than at larger scales. Information gaps identified within assessment tools lead to uncertainty for decision makers about which option improves energy efficiency. In the case of a number of large-scale EU building renovating/renewing projects these tools have......The state of building stocks changes over time. Owners and municipalities face the choice to renovate or rebuild buildings to improve energy efficiency. This review addresses how current sustainability assessment tools support these decisions. It finds that advanced tools are better tailored...... been scarcely used or merely suggested during planning. Recent advances in sustainability assessment tools can begin to close some of the existing knowledge gaps, while incentives and stricter legislation may improve their usage rates....

  20. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  1. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  2. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  3. Co-producing resilient solutions to climate change: Bridging the gap between science and decision-making around nexus issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, C.

    2016-12-01

    The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry encapsulating the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, environment with the climate, and wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by climate change. Methods of analysis, which are currently used, were not built to represent complex systems and are insufficiently equipped to understand positive and negative externalities generated by interactions among different stakeholders involved in the nexus. In addition misalignment between the science that scientists produce and the evidence decision-makers need leads to a range of complexities within the science-policy interface. Adopting a bottom-up, participative approach, the results of five themed workshops organized in the UK (focusing on: shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) featuring 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry allow us to map perceptions of opportunities and challenges of better informing decision making on climate change when there is a strong disconnect between the evidence scientists provide and the actions decision makers take. The research identified key areas where gaps could be bridged between science and action and explores how a knowledge co-production approach can help identify opportunities for building a more effective and legitimate policy agenda to face climate risks. Concerns, barriers and opportunities to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. In so doing, this analysis provides an assessment of good practice on climate decision-making and highlights opportunities for improvement to bridge gaps in the science-policy interface

  4. The construct-behavior gap in behavioral decision research: A challenge beyond replicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regenwetter, Michel; Robinson, Maria M

    2017-10-01

    Behavioral decision research compares theoretical constructs like preferences to behavior such as observed choices. Three fairly common links from constructs to behavior are (1) to tally, across participants and decision problems, the number of choices consistent with one predicted pattern of pairwise preferences; (2) to compare what most people choose in each decision problem against a predicted preference pattern; or (3) to enumerate the decision problems in which two experimental conditions generate a 1-sided significant difference in choice frequency 'consistent' with the theory. Although simple, these theoretical links are heuristics. They are subject to well-known reasoning fallacies, most notably the fallacy of sweeping generalization and the fallacy of composition. No amount of replication can alleviate these fallacies. On the contrary, reiterating logically inconsistent theoretical reasoning over and again across studies obfuscates science. As a case in point, we consider pairwise choices among simple lotteries and the hypotheses of overweighting or underweighting of small probabilities, as well as the description-experience gap. We discuss ways to avoid reasoning fallacies in bridging the conceptual gap between hypothetical constructs, such as, for example, "overweighting" to observable pairwise choice data. Although replication is invaluable, successful replication of hard-to-interpret results is not. Behavioral decision research stands to gain much theoretical and empirical clarity by spelling out precise and formally explicit theories of how hypothetical constructs translate into observable behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Yield Gap analysis - Rationale, methods and applications - Introduction to the Special Issue

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ittersum, van M.K.; Cassman, K.G.

    2013-01-01

    Yield gap analysis is an increasingly popular concept. It is a powerful method to reveal and understand the biophysical opportunities to meet the projected increase in demand for agricultural products towards 2050, and to support decision making on research, policies, development and investment that

  6. Sustainability Tools Inventory Initial Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report identifies a suite of tools that address a comprehensive set of community sustainability concerns. The objective is to discover whether "gaps" exist in the tool suite’s analytic capabilities. These tools address activities that significantly influence resource consu...

  7. In-Situ Burn Gaps Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This Report) UNCLAS//Public 20. Security Class (This Page) UNCLAS//Public 21. No of Pages 76 22. Price UNCLAS//Public | CG-926 RDC | Merrick...surveillance and spotting techniques/equipment to keep responders in the heaviest oil concentrations where their operation to skim , burn, or disperse...Offshore Oil Skim And Burn System For Use With Vessels Of Opportunity. UNCLAS//Public | CG-926 RDC | Merrick, et al. Public | June 2015 In-Situ Burn Gaps

  8. Next Generation Nuclear Plant GAP Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, Sydney J [ORNL; Burchell, Timothy D [ORNL; Corwin, William R [ORNL; Fisher, Stephen Eugene [ORNL; Forsberg, Charles W. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Morris, Robert Noel [ORNL; Moses, David Lewis [ORNL

    2008-12-01

    As a follow-up to the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) studies conducted recently by NRC on next generation nuclear plant (NGNP) safety, a study was conducted to identify the significant 'gaps' between what is needed and what is already available to adequately assess NGNP safety characteristics. The PIRT studies focused on identifying important phenomena affecting NGNP plant behavior, while the gap study gives more attention to off-normal behavior, uncertainties, and event probabilities under both normal operation and postulated accident conditions. Hence, this process also involved incorporating more detailed evaluations of accident sequences and risk assessments. This study considers thermal-fluid and neutronic behavior under both normal and postulated accident conditions, fission product transport (FPT), high-temperature metals, and graphite behavior and their effects on safety. In addition, safety issues related to coupling process heat (hydrogen production) systems to the reactor are addressed, given the limited design information currently available. Recommendations for further study, including analytical methods development and experimental needs, are presented as appropriate in each of these areas.

  9. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  10. Upper Midwest Gap Analysis Program, Image Processing Protocol

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lillesand, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    This document presents a series of technical guidelines by which land cover information is being extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper data as part of the Upper Midwest Gap Analysis Program (UMGAP...

  11. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  12. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  13. Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Bridging the Gap Between End User Needs and Science Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A.; Austin, E. K.

    2012-12-01

    Successful adaptation outcomes depend on decision making based on the best available climate science information. However, a fundamental barrier exists, namely the 'gap' between information that climate science can currently provide and the information that is practically useful for end users and decision makers. This study identifies the major contributing factors to the 'gap' from an Australian perspective and provides recommendations as to ways in which the 'gap' may be narrowed. This was achieved via a literature review, online survey (targeted to providers of climate information and end users of that information), workshop (where both climate scientists and end users came together to discuss key issues) and focus group. The study confirmed that uncertainty in climate science is a key barrier to adaptation. The issue of uncertainty was found to be multi-faceted, with issues identified in terms of communication of uncertainty, misunderstanding of uncertainty and the lack of tools/methods to deal with uncertainty. There were also key differences in terms of expectations for the future - most end users were of the belief that uncertainty associated with future climate projections would reduce within the next five to 10 years, however producers of climate science information were well aware that this would most likely not be the case. This is a concerning finding as end users may delay taking action on adaptation and risk planning until the uncertainties are reduced - a situation which may never eventuate or may occur after the optimal time for action. Improved communication and packaging of climate information was another key theme that was highlighted in this study. Importantly, it was made clear that improved communication is not just about more glossy brochures and presentations by climate scientists, rather there is a role for a program or group to fill this role (coined a 'knowledge broker' during the workshop and focus group). The role of the 'knowledge

  14. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  15. Analysis of energy gap opening in graphene oxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundie, Mark; Tomić, Stanko; Šljivančanin, Željko

    2014-01-01

    The utilisation of graphene structures as photonics materials mandates that an optically active electronic energy gap be formed. Opening of a gap in graphene has been demonstrated by functionalisation with H, F, or O atoms, while experimental observations of graphene oxide have hinted at interesting optical properties, with the potential for absorption of visible light. As such, our analysis is focused on O functionalisation of graphene. We present results from extensive ab initio and hybrid DFT calculations, demonstrating the creation of an optically active gap.

  16. Evidence-based medicine, the research-practice gap, and biases in medical and surgical decision making in dermatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaglstein, William H

    2010-10-01

    The objectives of this article are to promote a better understanding of a group of biases that influence therapeutic decision making by physicians/dermatologists and to raise the awareness that these biases contribute to a research-practice gap that has an impact on physicians and treatment solutions. The literature included a wide range of peer-reviewed articles dealing with biases in decision making, evidence-based medicine, randomized controlled clinical trials, and the research-practice gap. Bias against new therapies, bias in favor of indirect harm or omission, and bias against change when multiple new choices are offered may unconsciously affect therapeutic decision making. Although there is no comprehensive understanding or theory as to how choices are made by physicians, recognition of certain cognition patterns and their associated biases will help narrow the research-practice gap and optimize decision making regarding therapeutic choices.

  17. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  18. Gene Circuit Analysis of the Terminal Gap Gene huckebein

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashyraliyev, Maksat; Siggens, Ken; Janssens, Hilde; Blom, Joke; Akam, Michael; Jaeger, Johannes

    2009-01-01

    The early embryo of Drosophila melanogaster provides a powerful model system to study the role of genes in pattern formation. The gap gene network constitutes the first zygotic regulatory tier in the hierarchy of the segmentation genes involved in specifying the position of body segments. Here, we use an integrative, systems-level approach to investigate the regulatory effect of the terminal gap gene huckebein (hkb) on gap gene expression. We present quantitative expression data for the Hkb protein, which enable us to include hkb in gap gene circuit models. Gap gene circuits are mathematical models of gene networks used as computational tools to extract regulatory information from spatial expression data. This is achieved by fitting the model to gap gene expression patterns, in order to obtain estimates for regulatory parameters which predict a specific network topology. We show how considering variability in the data combined with analysis of parameter determinability significantly improves the biological relevance and consistency of the approach. Our models are in agreement with earlier results, which they extend in two important respects: First, we show that Hkb is involved in the regulation of the posterior hunchback (hb) domain, but does not have any other essential function. Specifically, Hkb is required for the anterior shift in the posterior border of this domain, which is now reproduced correctly in our models. Second, gap gene circuits presented here are able to reproduce mutants of terminal gap genes, while previously published models were unable to reproduce any null mutants correctly. As a consequence, our models now capture the expression dynamics of all posterior gap genes and some variational properties of the system correctly. This is an important step towards a better, quantitative understanding of the developmental and evolutionary dynamics of the gap gene network. PMID:19876378

  19. Science in Society: Bridging the gap to connect science to decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.

    2016-12-01

    The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time

  20. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

    2017-06-13

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

  1. Gap analysis methodology for business service engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, D.K.; van den Heuvel, W.J.A.M.; Papazoglou, M.; de Castro, V.; Marcos, E.; Hofreiter, B.; Werthner, H.

    2009-01-01

    Many of today’s service analysis and design techniques rely on ad-hoc and experience-based identification of value-creating business services and implicitly assume a “green-field” situation focusing on the development of completely new services while offering very limited support for discovering

  2. Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

  3. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the

  4. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  5. Mathematical analysis of the multiband BCS gap equations in superconductivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yisong

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we present a mathematical analysis for the phonon-dominated multiband isotropic and anisotropic BCS gap equations at any finite temperature T. We establish the existence of a critical temperature T so that, when TT, the only nonnegative gap solution is the zero solution, representing the normal phase. Furthermore, when T=T, we prove that the only gap solution is the zero solution and that the positive gap solution depend on the temperature TMarkowitz-Kadanoff model and we prove that the presence of anisotropic fluctuations enhances T as in the single-band case. A special consequence of these results is that the half-unity exponent isotope effect may rigorously be proved in the multiband BCS theory, isotropic or anisotropic.

  6. Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-111, Tehran (Iran)

    2010-01-15

    In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique. (author)

  7. Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem

    2010-01-01

    In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique.

  8. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

  9. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Val, Dimitri V.; Stewart, Mark G.

    2005-01-01

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  10. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  11. Yield gap analysis of feed-crop livestock systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Aart; Oosting, Simon J.; Ven, van de Gerrie W.J.; Veysset, Patrick; Boer, de Imke J.M.; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2018-01-01

    Sustainable intensification is a strategy contributing to global food security. The scope for sustainable intensification in crop sciences can be assessed through yield gap analysis, using crop growth models based on concepts of production ecology. Recently, an analogous cattle production model

  12. Using yield gap analysis to give sustainable intensification local meaning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silva, João Vasco

    2017-01-01

    Yield gap analysis is useful to understand the relative contribution of growth-defining, -limiting and -reducing factors to actual yields. This is traditionally performed at the field level using mechanistic crop growth simulation models, and directly up-scaled to the regional and global levels

  13. Knowledge-Base Semantic Gap Analysis for the Vulnerability Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Raymond; Seki, Keisuke; Sakamoto, Ryusuke; Hisada, Masayuki

    Web security became an alert in internet computing. To cope with ever-rising security complexity, semantic analysis is proposed to fill-in the gap that the current approaches fail to commit. Conventional methods limit their focus to the physical source codes instead of the abstraction of semantics. It bypasses new types of vulnerability and causes tremendous business loss.

  14. Hydrogen Safety Sensor Performance and Use Gap Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buttner, William J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Burgess, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schmidt, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hartmann, Kevin S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wright, Hannah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weidner, Eveline [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Cebolla, Rafael O. [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Bonato, Christian [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Moretto, Pietro [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands

    2017-11-15

    Hydrogen sensors are recognized as an important technology for facilitating the safe implementation of hydrogen as an alternative fuel, and there are numerous reports of a sensor alarm successfully preventing a potentially serious event. However, gaps in sensor metrological specifications, as well as in their performance for some applications, exist.The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technology Office published a short list of critical gaps in the 2007 and 2012 multiyear project plans; more detailed gap analyses were independently performed by the JRC and NREL. There have been, however, some significant advances in sensor technologies since these assessments, including the commercial availability of hydrogen sensors with fast response times (t90 less than 1 s, which had been an elusive DOE target since 2007), improved robustness to chemical poisons, improved selectivity, and improved lifetime and stability. These improvements, however, have not been universal and typically pertain to select platforms or models. Moreover, as hydrogen markets grow and new applications are being explored, more demands will be imposed on sensor performance. The hydrogen sensor laboratories at NREL and JRC are currently updating the hydrogen safety sensor gap analysis through direct interaction with international stakeholders in the hydrogen community, especially end-users. NREL and the JRC are currently organizing a series of workshops (in Europe and the U.S.) with sensor developers, end-users, and other stakeholders in 2017 to identify technology gaps and to develop a path forward to address them. One workshop is scheduled for May 10 in Brussels, Belgium at the Headquarters of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. A second workshop is planned at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO, USA. This presentation will review improvements in sensor technologies in the past 5 to 10 years, identify gaps in sensor performance and use requirements, and identify

  15. Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

  16. Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

  17. GAP ANALYSIS PROGRAM GIZI DAN KESEHATAN DI POSYANDU KABUPATEN BOGOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellis Endang Nikmawati

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available 800x600 Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Revitalization of Integrated Service Center Post (Posyandu is successful when  focused to its main function as community institution services. Determine gap analysis program based on tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy dimension. Exploratory and experimental designs was applied in this study, which was conducted at Darmaga and Ciomas district, Bogor Regency from March to August 2008. The data included primary and secondary data. The respondent in the experiment was 240 mothers of children under five years and 80 cadres. Gap analysis was used to know the expected and the real nutrition and health program of respondent. Totally 96 balita’s mother, pregnancy and reproductive women and 16 cadres were involved in this study. The average of gap realization with standard tool -0,75; Tangibles dimension -0,35; Reliability -0,10; Responsiveness -0,37; Assurance  -0,44, and Empathy -0,47, its mean that a tools accomplisment only 25% (less; tangible dimension 65% (enough; reliability 90% (good; responsiveness dimension 63% (enough; assurance dimension  56% (less and emphaty 53%  (less, respectively.   Key words:  posyandu performance,  nutrition education, gap analysis

  18. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  19. Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    they breakdown costs. This is followed by an in depth analysis of stakeholders’ needs for financial information derived from the 4C project stakeholder consultation.The stakeholders’ needs analysis indicated that models should:• support accounting, but more importantly they should enable budgeting• be able......his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...

  20. Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: aquatic gap analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Steen, Paul J.; Lyons, John; Stewart, Jana S.

    2009-01-01

    Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest

  1. The awareness and want matrix with adoption gap ratio analysis for e-service diffusion effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Te-Hsin

    2011-03-01

    Since the hierarchical stages of a customer purchasing decision or innovation adoption process are interrelated, an analysis of all their stages, including awareness, want, and adoption, in relation to product or service diffusion, is urgently needed. Therefore, this study proposes the use of an awareness and want matrix, together with an adoption gap ratio analysis, to assess the effectiveness of innovation and technology diffusion for e-services. This study also conducts an empirical test on the promotion performance evaluation of 12 e-services promoted by the Taiwanese government.

  2. Decision Vulnerability Analysis (DVA) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    31 14 Graphical Representation of the Summary Judgments of the Effectiveness, Vulnerability, and Understanding of the Subsystems’ as Judged by...posed several challenges. Numerous organizational typologies have been suggested over the years ( Robbins , 1994), and these typologies are often based...structure and functioning from a typology perspective ( Robbins , 1994), excerpts from a task analysis that described how the analysts currently performed

  3. A gap analysis of meteorological requirements for commercial space operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapleton, Nicholas James

    Commercial space companies will soon be the primary method of launching people and supplies into orbit. Among the critical aspects of space launches are the meteorological concerns. Laws and regulations pertaining to meteorological considerations have been created to ensure the safety of the space industry and those living around spaceports; but, are they adequate? Perhaps the commercial space industry can turn to the commercial aviation industry to help answer that question. Throughout its history, the aviation industry has dealt with lessons learned from mishaps due to failures in understanding the significance of weather impacts on operations. Using lessons from the aviation industry, the commercial space industry can preempt such accidents and maintain viability as an industry. Using Lanicci's Strategic Planning Model, this study identified the weather needs of the commercial space industry by conducting three gap analyses. First, a comparative analysis was done between laws and regulations in commercial aviation and those in the commercial space industry pertaining to meteorological support, finding a "legislative gap" between the two industries, as no legal guarantee is in place to ensure weather products remain available to the commercial space industry. A second analysis was conducted between the meteorological services provided for the commercial aviation industry and commercial space industry, finding a gap at facilities not located at an established launch facility or airport. At such facilities, many weather observational technologies would not be present, and would need to be purchased by the company operating the spaceport facility. A third analysis was conducted between the meteorological products and regulations that are currently in existence, and those needed for safe operations within the commercial space industry, finding gaps in predicting lightning, electric field charge, and space weather. Recommendations to address these deficiencies have

  4. Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

    2002-01-01

    Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

  5. Systemic accident analysis: examining the gap between research and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2013-06-01

    The systems approach is arguably the dominant concept within accident analysis research. Viewing accidents as a result of uncontrolled system interactions, it forms the theoretical basis of various systemic accident analysis (SAA) models and methods. Despite the proposed benefits of SAA, such as an improved description of accident causation, evidence within the scientific literature suggests that these techniques are not being used in practice and that a research-practice gap exists. The aim of this study was to explore the issues stemming from research and practice which could hinder the awareness, adoption and usage of SAA. To achieve this, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 42 safety experts from ten countries and a variety of industries, including rail, aviation and maritime. This study suggests that the research-practice gap should be closed and efforts to bridge the gap should focus on ensuring that systemic methods meet the needs of practitioners and improving the communication of SAA research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  7. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  8. Gap Analysis Approach for Construction Safety Program Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanet Aksorn

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available To improve construction site safety, emphasis has been placed on the implementation of safety programs. In order to successfully gain from safety programs, factors that affect their improvement need to be studied. Sixteen critical success factors of safety programs were identified from safety literature, and these were validated by safety experts. This study was undertaken by surveying 70 respondents from medium- and large-scale construction projects. It explored the importance and the actual status of critical success factors (CSFs. Gap analysis was used to examine the differences between the importance of these CSFs and their actual status. This study found that the most critical problems characterized by the largest gaps were management support, appropriate supervision, sufficient resource allocation, teamwork, and effective enforcement. Raising these priority factors to satisfactory levels would lead to successful safety programs, thereby minimizing accidents.

  9. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  10. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Do

    2006-01-01

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  11. Gap analysis of industrial energy management systems in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pusnik, Matevz; Al-Mansour, Fouad; Sucic, Boris; Gubina, A.F.

    2016-01-01

    Industrial energy management systems, which comprise software solutions, upfront services, and ongoing monitoring and management, enable industrial companies to actively manage their energy consumption and energy procurement activities. Energy management systems are usually tailored to the specific industrial needs but may offer limited functionalities, mostly as a result of different identified gaps (process simplifications, improper measurement points, a lack of motivation, etc.). A survey was conducted in order to analyse the gaps and use of energy management systems in Slovenian industry. The results of the survey presented in this paper demonstrate that the use of energy management systems in industry is recognised as a potential competitive advantage by most of the addressed companies. Furthermore, motivation was highlighted as an important prerequisite for process and structural improvements and reported to be thus far insufficiently addressed. Furthermore, the importance of strong cooperation with actors at different levels of industry, namely the executive and shop floor levels, is addressed. In the conclusion, possibilities for new opportunities in the exploitation of energy efficiency through the use of industrial energy management systems are discussed. - Highlights: • Investigating gaps and evaluation of EMS use in Slovenian industry. • Analysis based on the developed self-assessment tool 3EMT. • Existing EMS do not include all the requirements for the industrial operations. • Constructive cooperation between all stakeholders is of crucial importance.

  12. ADMS State of the Industry and Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agalgaonkar, Yashodhan P.; Marinovici, Maria C.; Vadari, Subramanian V.; Schneider, Kevin P.; Melton, Ronald B.

    2016-03-31

    An Advanced distribution management system (ADMS) is a platform for optimized distribution system operational management. This platform comprises of distribution management system (DMS) applications, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), outage management system (OMS), and distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). One of the primary objectives of this work is to study and analyze several ADMS component and auxiliary systems. All the important component and auxiliary systems, SCADA, GISs, DMSs, AMRs/AMIs, OMSs, and DERMS, are discussed in this report. Their current generation technologies are analyzed, and their integration (or evolution) with an ADMS technology is discussed. An ADMS technology state of the art and gap analysis is also presented. There are two technical gaps observed. The integration challenge between the component operational systems is the single largest challenge for ADMS design and deployment. Another significant challenge noted is concerning essential ADMS applications, for instance, fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR), volt-var optimization (VVO), etc. There are a relatively small number of ADMS application developers as ADMS software platform is not open source. There is another critical gap and while not being technical in nature (when compared the two above) is still important to consider. The data models currently residing in utility GIS systems are either incomplete or inaccurate or both. This data is essential for planning and operations because it is typically one of the primary sources from which power system model are created. To achieve the full potential of ADMS, the ability to execute acute Power Flow solution is an important pre-requisite. These critical gaps are hindering wider Utility adoption of an ADMS technology. The development of an open architecture platform can eliminate many of these barriers and also aid seamless integration of distribution Utility legacy systems with an

  13. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

  14. Gap analysis of the European Earth Observation Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closa, Guillem; Serral, Ivette; Maso, Joan

    2016-04-01

    Earth Observations (EO) are fundamental to enhance the scientific understanding of the current status of the Earth. Nowadays, there are a lot of EO services that provide large volume of data, and the number of datasets available for different geosciences areas is increasing by the day. Despite this coverage, a glance of the European EO networks reveals that there are still some issues that are not being met; some gaps in specific themes or some thematic overlaps between different networks. This situation requires a clarification process of the actual status of the EO European networks in order to set priorities and propose future actions that will improve the European EO networks. The aim of this work is to detect the existing gaps and overlapping problems among the European EO networks. The analytical process has been done by studying the availability and the completeness of the Essential Variables (EV) data captured by the European EO networks. The concept of EVs considers that there are a number of parameters that are essential to characterize the state and trends of a system without losing significant information. This work generated a database of the existing gaps in the European EO network based on the initial GAIA-CLIM project data structure. For each theme the missing or incomplete data about each EV was indentified. Then, if incomplete, the gap was described by adding its type (geographical extent, vertical extent, temporal extent, spatial resolution, etc), the cost, the remedy, the feasibility, the impact and the priority, among others. Gaps in EO are identified following the ConnectinGEO methodology structured in 5 threads; identification of observation requirements, incorporation of international research programs material, consultation process within the current EO actors, GEOSS Discovery and Access Broker analysis, and industry-driven challenges implementation. Concretely, the presented work focuses on the second thread, which is based on

  15. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GAPS BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL ROMANIAN AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toader Valentin

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the authors will perform a comparative analysis of the impact that the population residential areas have on the economic and social activity from Romania. Our analysis will be carried out for a time span of 10 years, between 2000 and 2009. The main purposes are to emphasize the economic gaps between the residential areas (urban and rural and to identify the factors that determine these gaps. The economic differences between rural and urban areas and their impact on the peoples standard of living represent an important issue for international institutions like IFRC, UNICEF or OECD. Also, this topic represents a frequent subject in the economic literature from poor and developing countries. Studies conducted by Huong and Booth (2010, Alister, Alana and Ayele (2007, Chao, Zhidong and Mingxing (2008, Mateoc-Srb, Mateoc, Darva?i and Manescu (2008 or Sahn and Stifel (2002 are representative examples. Most of these papers focus on the living standards differences generated by the differences between income and expenditures between urban and rural areas. To achieve our goals, we will use the statistical methods to analyze the data released by the National Institute of Statistics. We will try to find some correlations between the economic indicators household incomes, value and structure of household expenditures, structure of household expenditures the social indicators residential area, education level, age and occupation. The highlight of the gaps between the rural and urban areas will be the main objective during this analysis. We conclude that in Romania there are substantial differences between rural and urban areas. The income differences are determining different consumption patterns between rural and urban persons. In rural areas, the population is spending less in all goods and services aspect that reduce their standard of living. Anyway, the results obtained are the subject of at least two possible limits. The fact that the data

  16. Digital Architecture – Results From a Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oxstrand, Johanna Helene [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thomas, Kenneth David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fitzgerald, Kirk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The digital architecture is defined as a collection of IT capabilities needed to support and integrate a wide-spectrum of real-time digital capabilities for nuclear power plant performance improvements. The digital architecture can be thought of as an integration of the separate I&C and information systems already in place in NPPs, brought together for the purpose of creating new levels of automation in NPP work activities. In some cases, it might be an extension of the current communication systems, to provide digital communications where they are currently analog only. This collection of IT capabilities must in turn be based on a set of user requirements that must be supported for the interconnected technologies to operate in an integrated manner. These requirements, simply put, are a statement of what sorts of digital work functions will be exercised in a fully-implemented seamless digital environment and how much they will be used. The goal of the digital architecture research is to develop a methodology for mapping nuclear power plant operational and support activities into the digital architecture, which includes the development of a consensus model for advanced information and control architecture. The consensus model should be developed at a level of detail that is useful to the industry. In other words, not so detailed that it specifies specific protocols and not so vague that it is only provides a high level description of technology. The next step towards the model development is to determine the current state of digital architecture at typical NPPs. To investigate the current state, the researchers conducted a gap analysis to determine to what extent the NPPs can support the future digital technology environment with their existing I&C and IT structure, and where gaps exist with respect to the full deployment of technology over time. The methodology, result, and conclusions from the gap analysis are described in this report.

  17. Studi Kelayakan Implementasi SAP dengan Metode Fit/Gap Analysis dan CBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurlina Nurlina

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An application system is required by a company to meet the needs of enterprise business processes so as to provide information quickly and accurately. Therefore, it is necessary to study the feasibility status of plan of enterprise system implementation. SAP R/3 contains various modules which is deserved to be considered as a company's information system solution. Results of the feasibility study through the analysis of fit/ gap analysis state that the implementation of SAP R/3 sales module is feasible and able to meet all the needs of the system.Results of cost and benefit analysis state that the strategy implementation of SAP R/3 module is feasible. Based on the analysis and research using the two methods above, a decision can be taken whether the SAP R/3 is worth to be implemented or not.

  18. Markov decision processes and the belief-desire-intention model bridging the gap for autonomous agents

    CERN Document Server

    Simari, Gerardo I

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we provide a treatment of the relationship between two models that have been widely used in the implementation of autonomous agents: the Belief DesireIntention (BDI) model and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We start with an informal description of the relationship, identifying the common features of the two approaches and the differences between them. Then we hone our understanding of these differences through an empirical analysis of the performance of both models on the TileWorld testbed. This allows us to show that even though the MDP model displays consistently better behavior than the BDI model for small worlds, this is not the case when the world becomes large and the MDP model cannot be solved exactly. Finally we present a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the two approaches, identifying mappings that allow us to extract a set of intentions from a policy (a solution to an MDP), and to extract a policy from a set of intentions.

  19. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  20. Structure modeling and mutational analysis of gap junction beta 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2012-04-03

    Apr 3, 2012 ... Three dimensional (3 D) structure is very useful for understanding biological functions. Gap junction beta 2 (GJB2), human gene encoding for gap junction beta 2 protein is involved in ... Research in deafness became real.

  1. Vehicle Codes and Standards: Overview and Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blake, C.; Buttner, W.; Rivkin, C.

    2010-02-01

    This report identifies gaps in vehicle codes and standards and recommends ways to fill the gaps, focusing on six alternative fuels: biodiesel, natural gas, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, and propane.

  2. To close the childhood immunization gap, we need a richer understanding of parents' decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corben, Paul; Leask, Julie

    2016-12-01

    Vaccination is widely acknowledged as one of the most successful public health interventions globally and in most high-income countries childhood vaccination coverage rates are moderately high. Yet in many instances, immunisation rates remain below aspirational targets and have shown only modest progress toward those targets in recent years, despite concerted efforts to improve uptake. In part, coverage rates reflect individual parents' vaccination attitudes and decisions and, because vaccination decision-making is complex and context-specific, it remains challenging at individual and community levels to assist parents to make positive decisions. Consequently, in the search for opportunities to improve immunisation coverage, there has been a renewed research focus on parents' decision-making. This review provides an overview of the literature surrounding parents' vaccination decision-making, offering suggestions for where efforts to increase vaccination coverage should be targeted and identifying areas for further research.

  3. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Julie L.; Johnston, Elizabeth; Berndt, Sam; Segal, Katie; Lei, Ming; Wiest, Jonathan S.

    2016-01-01

    The United States has experienced an unsustainable increase of the biomedical research workforce over the past 3 decades. This expansion has led to a myriad of consequences, including an imbalance in the number of researchers and available tenure-track faculty positions, extended postdoctoral training periods, increasing age of investigators at first U.S. National Institutes of Health R01 grant, and exodus of talented individuals seeking careers beyond traditional academe. Without accurate data on the biomedical research labor market, challenges will remain in resolving these problems and in advising trainees of viable career options and the skills necessary to be productive in their careers. We analyzed workforce trends, integrating both traditional labor market information and real-time job data. We generated a profile of the current biomedical research workforce, performed labor gap analyses of occupations in the workforce at regional and national levels, and assessed skill transferability between core and complementary occupations. We conclude that although supply into the workforce and the number of job postings for occupations within that workforce have grown over the past decade, supply continues to outstrip demand. Moreover, we identify practical skill sets from real-time job postings to optimally equip trainees for an array of careers to effectively meet future workforce demand.—Mason, J. L., Johnston, E., Berndt, S., Segal, K., Lei, M., Wiest, J. S. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce. PMID:27075242

  4. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Julie L; Johnston, Elizabeth; Berndt, Sam; Segal, Katie; Lei, Ming; Wiest, Jonathan S

    2016-08-01

    The United States has experienced an unsustainable increase of the biomedical research workforce over the past 3 decades. This expansion has led to a myriad of consequences, including an imbalance in the number of researchers and available tenure-track faculty positions, extended postdoctoral training periods, increasing age of investigators at first U.S. National Institutes of Health R01 grant, and exodus of talented individuals seeking careers beyond traditional academe. Without accurate data on the biomedical research labor market, challenges will remain in resolving these problems and in advising trainees of viable career options and the skills necessary to be productive in their careers. We analyzed workforce trends, integrating both traditional labor market information and real-time job data. We generated a profile of the current biomedical research workforce, performed labor gap analyses of occupations in the workforce at regional and national levels, and assessed skill transferability between core and complementary occupations. We conclude that although supply into the workforce and the number of job postings for occupations within that workforce have grown over the past decade, supply continues to outstrip demand. Moreover, we identify practical skill sets from real-time job postings to optimally equip trainees for an array of careers to effectively meet future workforce demand.-Mason, J. L., Johnston, E., Berndt, S., Segal, K., Lei, M., Wiest, J. S. Labor and skills gap analysis of the biomedical research workforce. © FASEB.

  5. Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

  6. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

  7. Theoretical analysis of gold nano-strip gap plasmon resonators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soendergaard, T; Jung, J; Bozhevolnyi, S I; Della Valle, G [Department of Physics and Nanotechnology, Aalborg University, Skjernvej 4A, DK-9220 Aalborg Oest (Denmark)], E-mail: ts@nano.aau.dk

    2008-10-15

    Gold gap plasmon resonators consisting of two nm-thin and sub-micron-wide gold strips separated by a nm-thin air or quartz gap are considered. Scattering resonances and resonant fields are related to a model of resonances being due to counter-propagating gap plasmon polaritons forming standing waves. A small gap ({approx}10 nm) is found to result in small resonance peaks in scattering spectra but large electric field magnitude enhancement ({approx}20), whereas a large gap ({approx}100 nm) is found to result in more pronounced scattering peaks but smaller field enhancement. Design curves are presented that allow construction of gap plasmon resonators with any desired resonance wavelength in the range from the visible to the infrared, including telecom wavelengths. The relation between resonance wavelength and resonator width is close to being linear. The field magnitude enhancement mid between the gold strips is systematically investigated versus gap size and wavelength.

  8. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  9. An Analysis of Gap in TQM Indicators in Health Care Institutions (Case: Isfahan Khorshid Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Sadr-Bafghi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Many organizations, especially, service organizations, relative to their goals and mission, have a special view towards quality phenomena and its management and are turning to approaches such as TQM to help manage their business. This study examined the TQM indicators gap in Isfahan Khorshid hospital. As fuzzy set theory is better than the logical theory for estimating the linguistic factors, this paper tries to apply fuzzy approach to quality management in hospitals and analyzes the gap between personnel expectations and perception. Methods: This paper analyzes medical total quality management in a case (Internal Section of Khorshid Hospital, based on gap analysis model and fuzzy logic. A questionnaire was therefore applied to measure expectations and perceptions of hospital personnel. Results: This study results show that on the whole, there is a significant difference between TQM expectations and perceptions among K`horshid hospital personnel. Conclusions: Spurred by impressive results in other industries, this compelling and logical approach has begun to penetrate the thinking of health care accrediting agencies, business coalitions, private foundations and leading health care organizations. However, before making a commitment to TQM, hospital decision makers should thoroughly understand what it is they are committing to, and solve the main barriers such as the conflict between hospital management philosophies and TQM philosophies.

  10. Implementing shared decision making in federally qualified health centers, a quasi-experimental design study: the Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) program

    OpenAIRE

    Olomu, Adesuwa; Hart-Davidson, William; Luo, Zhehui; Kelly-Blake, Karen; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Background Use of Shared Decision-Making (SDM) and Decision Aids (DAs) has been encouraged but is not regularly implemented in primary care. The Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) intervention is an application of a previous model revised to address guidelines based care for low-income populations with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). Objective: To evaluate Office-GAP Program feasibility and preliminary efficacy on medication use, patient satisfaction with physician ...

  11. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  12. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  13. Sequence and expression analysis of gaps in human chromosome 20

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minocherhomji, Sheroy; Seemann, Stefan; Mang, Yuan

    2012-01-01

    /or overlap disease-associated loci, including the DLGAP4 locus. In this study, we sequenced ~99% of all three unfinished gaps on human chr 20, determined their complete genomic sizes and assessed epigenetic profiles using a combination of Sanger sequencing, mate pair paired-end high-throughput sequencing......The finished human genome-assemblies comprise several hundred un-sequenced euchromatic gaps, which may be rich in long polypurine/polypyrimidine stretches. Human chromosome 20 (chr 20) currently has three unfinished gaps remaining on its q-arm. All three gaps are within gene-dense regions and...... and chromatin, methylation and expression analyses. We found histone 3 trimethylated at Lysine 27 to be distributed across all three gaps in immortalized B-lymphocytes. In one gap, five novel CpG islands were predominantly hypermethylated in genomic DNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes and human cerebellum...

  14. A Distributional Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Salma Ahmed; Pushkar Maitra

    2011-01-01

    This paper decomposes the gender wage gap along the entire wage distribution into an endowment effect and a discrimination effect, taking into account possible selection into full-time employment. Applying a new decomposition approach to the Bangladesh Labour Force Survey (LFS) data we find that women are paid less than men every where on the wage distribution and the gap is higher at the lower end of the distribution. Discrimination against women is the primary determinant of the wage gap. W...

  15. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  16. Pitfalls of CITES Implementation in Nepal: A Policy Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T.

    2012-08-01

    Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

  17. Mind the Gap: A Case Study of Values-Based Decision Making in a Nonprofit Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Jana L.

    2013-01-01

    Using an exploratory case study approach, this research examined the consistency between espoused and enacted values within a large nonprofit organization known as an ethical leader in the human services industry. This research explored ethical business culture, ethical decision making, deontological and utilitarian moral paradigms and learning…

  18. Protected area gap analysis of important bird areas in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sritharan, Shakthi; Burgess, Neil David

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of gaps in protected area (PA) coverage of species distributions have been carried out extensively for the past two decades, aiming to better locate new PAs and conserve species. In this study, progress to close gaps in the protection of the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) of Tanzania...

  19. The unequal distribution of unequal pay - An empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Dorothe Bonjour; Michael Gerfin

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the distribution of the gender wage gap. Using microdata for Switzerland we estimate conditional wage distribution functions and find that the total wage gap and its discrimination component are not constant over the range of wages. At low wages an overproportional part of the wage gap is due to discrimination. In a further analysis of specific individuals we examine the wage gap at different quantiles and propose a new measure to assess equal earnings opportunities. ...

  20. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  1. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Sustainable Water Infrastructure Asset Management: A Gap Analysis of Customer and Service Provider Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangjong Han

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The ultimate goal of urban water infrastructure asset management may be sustainable water supply with satisfaction for customers. In this work, we attempted to evaluate the gaps between the perspectives of customers and service providers in Korea’s water infrastructure asset management. To evaluate the customers’ perspective, a hierarchical questionnaire survey was conducted to estimate the weights of influence for six customer values and their attributes on Korean water utility management. To evaluate the service providers’ perspective, an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis was performed to estimate the weights of influence for the customer values and their PIs (performance indicators. The gap analysis results show that customers place higher value on customer service satisfaction (emotion and information than do the service providers (managers, whereas the managers place more value on affordability than do the customers. The findings from this work imply that improving customer service is effective in satisfying the desirable water LOS (level of service for customers. Recommendations have also been provided for administrators and engineers to develop integrated decision-making systems that can reflect customer needs regarding the improvement of their water infrastructure asset management. The findings from this work may be helpful for the Korean government and water supply utilities in improving the sustainability of their water infrastructure asset management.

  3. Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian STANCU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

  4. The control gap : the role of budgets, accounting information and (non-) decisions in hospital settings

    OpenAIRE

    Nyland, Kari; Pettersen, Inger Johanne

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the link between budgets, accounting information and the decisionmaking processes at both strategic and operational levels in a large Norwegian hospital, as this hospital now is facing the New Public Management reforms which are introduced in Norway. The study has examined the use of budget and accounting information in the management control process. The empirical data are based on interviews with key actors in the decision-making process at all management levels in t...

  5. Gap analysis of service quality at Innibos Arts Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Welthagen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Events, specifically festivals, have experienced significant growth in South Africa over the past ten years in size, numbers, diversity and popularity (Van Zyl, 2011. Arts festivals have become a feature in the South African cultural landscape and long term success and sustainability of these events rely on the emphasis of service quality, thereby highlighting sustainability of festivals and events. The questionnaire, based on the SERVQUAL model and an adaption of the Grönroos model was used to identify service perceptions and expectations of service quality at Innibos National Arts Festival in Mbombela, South Africa. The data were collected in two phases, the first prior to the festival to measure attendee’s expectations, and the second after the festival to measure the attendee’s experience of service quality at the festival . The statistical analysis was performed on a construct level as well as an individual variable level. This study aimed at quantifying the gap between attendee’s expectations and perceptions of service quality and overall customer satisfaction.

  6. Functional Gap Analysis of the Maritime Operations Centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Messaging Services TBMCS , DJC2 MI.1.3.5 Manage Suspense Control Capability Gap MI.1.3.6 Provide Component IM Cell Services Capability Gap MI.1.4 Provide...Admin Support MSRT MI.1.3.3 Manage Electronic File Plan Capability Gap MI.1.3.4 Manage Messaging Services TBMCS , DJC2 MI.1.3.5 Manage Suspense...1.5.9 Execute C4 Policies & Procedures for the Joint Operations Area GCCS-J, DCGS-N, TBMCS , CENTRIX-M EHQ.1.11 Sub Component Interagency

  7. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Bayesian Decision Theory and Utilitarian Ethics ,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 68: 223-228 (May 1978). Hartsough, Bruce R. “A...1983). Morrell, Darryl and Eric Driver. “ Bayesian Network Implementation of Levi’s Epistemic Utility Decision Theory ,” International Journal Of...elicitation efficiency for the decision maker. Subject Terms Decision Analysis, Utility Theory , Elicitation Error, Operations Research, Decision

  8. An Equilibrium Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap

    OpenAIRE

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a theory of the gender wage gap. In a general equilibrium model, spouses devide their labor between a formal sector and a home sector. Due to indivisibility effects, productivity of labor in the formal sector is negatively related to labor used in the home; at the same time labor inputs are complementary in home production. We show that initial beliefs about the gender wage gap are self-fulfilling, and a central result is multiplicity of equilibria. Spouses allocate their ...

  9. Skill gap analysis and training needs in Indian aerospace industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Premkumar Balaraman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The main objective of the paper is on assessing the global aerospace industry as well as Indian scenario, and attempts to assess the skill gaps and training needs of Indian aerospace industry.  Design/methodology/approach: The study is qualitative in nature, and employs wide array of qualitative tools which includes desktop study, focus group interviews and secondary sources of information. Around 10 focus groups were used in the study, with each focus group having a minimum of 6 members of experts in the aerospace and allied industries. The study evolved into a 2 staged one, with the first study elucidating the growing importance and potential of aerospace industry, justifying the significance to take forward the second part of the study. And the second study specifically focuses on skill gaps and training needs. Findings and Originality/value: The Study yields varied results on existing generic expectations of aerospace industry, specific needs of aerospace industry, identification of aerospace job categories unique to aerospace industry, key issues of training in Indian scenario and recommendations. The paper in summary reflects the current scenario of aerospace industry potentials for India and its likely impact on skills gap and training needs. Practical implications: Skills gap is a significant gap between an organization’s current capabilities and the skills it needs to achieve its goals. As a number of Global forecasts project, India as an emerging aviation market, the skill gaps in this sector is predicted to be huge and necessitates the study on assessing the skill gaps and its allied training needs. Originality/value: The Study is highly original and first one of its kind in reflecting the current situation of the skills gap and training needs in Indian Aerospace industry. The focus group interviews were conducted with the experts at various levels in the industyr without any bias yielding valid and realtime data for the

  10. A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Aindrila

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

  11. Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    2018-01-01

    systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

  12. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  13. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, C.; Sweet, T.; Borison, A.

    1991-01-01

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  14. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  15. Gap Analysis between Students' Perceptions and Expectations of Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Abbasian

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Backgrounds and Objectives: Assessing the educational services provided for students and determining the gap between the current status and the expected status can pave the way for developing programs to promote the quality of educational services. This study was performed aiming at determining the quality of educational services in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences in 2010.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 274 students of Shahroud University of Medical Sciences were selected by random sampling method. The data were collected using SERVQUAL standard questionnaire. The 27-question questionnaire included two sections of demographic data and five-dimension educational services quality, which was completed as self-administered. The data were analyzed through independent samples t-test, paired samples t-test, and one-way ANOVA.Results: There were quality gaps in all dimensions of educational services quality and the statements to assess them. The biggest quality gap was in the responsiveness dimension (-1.45, and the lowest gap was in the reliability dimension (-1.14. The mean gap scores in female students were higher than male students in all five dimensions of educational services quality, and this difference were statistically significant (p<0.001.Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the students’ expectations are not fulfilled in all service dimensions. Therefore, responsiveness, customer-orientation, improvement of work processes and physical spaces, and paying attention to other dimensions could play a key role in promoting the quality of educational services.

  16. The gender health gap in China: A decomposition analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Bago d'Uva, Teresa; van Doorslaer, Eddy

    2015-07-01

    Around the world, and in spite of their higher life expectancy, women tend to report worse health than men until old age. Explanations for this gender gap in self-perceived health may be different in China than in other countries due to the traditional phenomenon of son preference. We examine several possible reasons for the gap using the Chinese SAGE data. We first rule out differential reporting by gender as a possible explanation, exploiting information on anchoring vignettes in eight domains of health functioning. Decomposing the gap in general self-assessed health, we find that about 31% can be explained by socio-demographic factors, most of all by discrimination against women in education in the 20th century. A more complete specification including chronic conditions and health functioning fully explains the remainder of the gap (about 69%). Adding chronic conditions and health functioning also explains at least two thirds of the education contribution, suggesting how education may affect health. In particular, women's higher rates of arthritis, angina and eye diseases make the largest contributions to the gender health gap, by limiting mobility, increasing pain and discomfort, and causing sleep problems and a feeling of low energy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. An Equilibrium Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    This paper develops a theory of the gender wage gap. In a general equilibrium model, spouses devide their labor between a formal sector and a home sector. Due to indivisibility effects, productivity of labor in the formal sector is negatively related to labor used in the home; at the same time...... labor inputs are complementary in home production. We show that initial beliefs about the gender wage gap are self-fulfilling, and a central result is multiplicity of equilibria. Spouses allocate their labor equally, if they expect to earn the same wage rates, which ex post reinforces equal wage rates......; whereas they allocate their labor differently, if they expect to earn different wage rates. The latter situation manifests itself in a gender wage gap. By use of numerical examples, we show that welfare is highest when spouses allocate labor equally. We relate this finding to policy recommendations...

  18. Analysis of photonic band gap in novel piezoelectric photonic crystal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malar Kodi, A.; Doni Pon, V.; Joseph Wilson, K. S.

    2018-03-01

    The transmission properties of one-dimensional novel photonic crystal having silver-doped novel piezoelectric superlattice and air as the two constituent layers have been investigated by means of transfer matrix method. By changing the appropriate thickness of the layers and filling factor of nanocomposite system, the variation in the photonic band gap can be studied. It is found that the photonic band gap increases with the filling factor of the metal nanocomposite and with the thickness of the layer. These structures possess unique characteristics enabling one to operate as optical waveguides, selective filters, optical switches, integrated piezoelectric microactuators, etc.

  19. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims to forecast the long term behavior of tourist arrivals and analyze the gap between supply and demand for the hotel/accommodation sector of the city of Addis Ababa. It also intends to provide vital information in regards to the sparse knowledge in the subject of forecasting tourist arrivals in Ethiopia.

  1. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  2. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  3. Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

    2017-09-13

    The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  4. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.W.J. Dippel (Diederik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractDiagnostic and therapeutic choice in neurology can fortunately be made without formal decision support in the majority of cases. in many patients a diagnosis and treatment choice are relatively easy to establish. This study however, concerns the application of a decision support

  5. Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Tomkins

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

  6. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  7. The Use of Gap Analysis to Increase Student Completion Rates at Travelor Adult School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Blanca Estela

    2013-01-01

    This project applied the gap analysis problem-solving framework (Clark & Estes, 2008) in order to help develop strategies to increase completion rates at Travelor Adult School. The purpose of the study was to identify whether the knowledge, motivation and organization barriers were contributing to the identified gap. A mixed method approached…

  8. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 3 - vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. In this paper, we report updated findings in the field of FMD vaccine research. This paper consists of the following four sections: 1) Research priorities identified in the 2010 GFRA gap ana...

  9. Tire Crumb Research Study Literature Review / Gap AnalysisWhite Paper Summary of Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    In order to more fully understand data gaps in human exposure and toxicity to tire crumb materials, ATSDR, CPSC and EPA undertook a collaborative effort in the form of a scientific literature review and subsequent gaps analysis. The first objective of the Literature Review and Ga...

  10. Communication gap analysis of the availability of tourism related ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper assesses the availability of tourism related information on the Ghana's tourism to visitors' from the UK, the USA and Germany. The discrepancy approach which relates the expected (basic information to make effective travel decisions) to the actual situation (actual travel information available for planning a trip) ...

  11. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  12. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  13. Implementing shared decision making in federally qualified health centers, a quasi-experimental design study: the Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olomu, Adesuwa; Hart-Davidson, William; Luo, Zhehui; Kelly-Blake, Karen; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret

    2016-08-02

    Use of Shared Decision-Making (SDM) and Decision Aids (DAs) has been encouraged but is not regularly implemented in primary care. The Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) intervention is an application of a previous model revised to address guidelines based care for low-income populations with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). To evaluate Office-GAP Program feasibility and preliminary efficacy on medication use, patient satisfaction with physician communication and confidence in decision in low-income population with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a Federally Qualified Healthcare Center (FQHC). Ninety-five patients participated in an Office-GAP program. A quasi-experimental design study, over 6 months with 12-month follow-up. Office-GAP program integrates health literacy, communication skills education for patients and physicians, patient/physician decision support tools and SDM into routine care. 1) Implementation rates of planned program elements 2) Patient satisfaction with communication and confidence in decision, and 3) Medication prescription rates. We used the GEE method for hierarchical logistic models, controlling for confounding. Feasibility of the Office-GAP program in the FQHC setting was established. We found significant increase in use of Aspirin/Plavix, statin and beta-blocker during follow-up compared to baseline: Aspirin OR 1.5 (95 % CI: 1.1, 2.2) at 3-months, 1.9 (1.3, 2.9) at 6-months, and 1.8 (1.2, 2.8) at 12-months. Statin OR 1.1 (1.0, 1.3) at 3-months and 1.5 (1.1, 2.2) at 12-months; beta-blocker 1.8 (1.1, 2.9) at 6-months and 12-months. Program elements were consistently used (≥ 98 % clinic attendance at training and tool used). Patient satisfaction with communication and confidence in decision increased. The use of Office-GAP program to teach SDM and use of DAs in real time was demonstrated to be feasible in FQHCs. It has the potential to improve satisfaction with physician communication and

  14. A gap analysis of the South African innovation system for water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A gap analysis of the South African innovation system for water. ... Two major approaches to science and innovation from the innovation systems ... infrastructure and data sharing; reorganising the research environment within universities; ...

  15. Analysis of photonic band-gap structures in stratified medium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Ming-Sze; Yinchao, Chen; Lu, Yilong

    2005-01-01

    in electromagnetic and microwave applications once the Maxwell's equations are appropriately modeled. Originality/value - The method validates its values and properties through extensive studies on regular and defective 1D PBG structures in stratified medium, and it can be further extended to solving more......Purpose - To demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of a non-uniform pseudo-spectral time domain (nu-PSTD) method through studies of the wave propagation characteristics on photonic band-gap (PBG) structures in stratified medium Design/methodology/approach - A nu-PSTD method is proposed...... in solving the Maxwell's equations numerically. It expands the temporal derivatives using the finite differences, while it adopts the Fourier transform (FT) properties to expand the spatial derivatives in Maxwell's equations. In addition, the method makes use of the chain-rule property in calculus together...

  16. A Capstone Project Using the Gap Analysis Model: Closing the College Readiness Gap for Latino English Language Learners with a Focus on School Support and School Counseling Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Evelyn

    2013-01-01

    This capstone project applied Clark and Estes' (2008) gap analysis framework to identify performance gaps, develop perceived root causes, validate the causes, and formulate research-based solutions to present to Trojan High School. The purpose was to examine ways to increase the academic achievement of ELL students, specifically Latinos, by…

  17. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipley, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  18. Multivariate Analysis of Household Decision Making, Contraceptive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. ... exposure. The study concluded that women empowerment in decision ... through the prevention of unwanted and unplanned births is one of the most effective .... visitors who slept in the household the previous night before the survey) were eligible ...

  19. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  20. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  1. A retrospective analysis of glycol and toxic alcohol ingestion: utility of anion and osmolal gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasowski Matthew D

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients ingesting ethylene glycol, isopropanol, methanol, and propylene glycol ('toxic alcohols' often present with non-specific signs and symptoms. Definitive diagnosis of toxic alcohols has traditionally been by gas chromatography (GC, a technique not commonly performed on-site in hospital clinical laboratories. The objectives of this retrospective study were: 1 to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the osmolal gap in screening for toxic alcohol ingestion and 2 to determine the common reasons other than toxic alcohol ingestion for elevated osmolal gaps. Methods Electronic medical records from an academic tertiary care medical center were searched to identify all patients in the time period from January 1, 1996 to September 1, 2010 who had serum/plasma ethanol, glucose, sodium, blood urea nitrogen, and osmolality measured simultaneously, and also all patients who had GC analysis for toxic alcohols. Detailed chart review was performed on all patients with osmolal gap of 9 or greater. Results In the study period, 20,669 patients had determination of serum/plasma ethanol and osmolal gap upon presentation to the hospitals. There were 341 patients with an osmolal gap greater than 14 (including correction for estimated contribution of ethanol on initial presentation to the medical center. Seventy-seven patients tested positive by GC for one or more toxic alcohols; all had elevated anion gap or osmolal gap or both. Other than toxic alcohols, the most common causes for an elevated osmolal gap were recent heavy ethanol consumption with suspected alcoholic ketoacidosis, renal failure, shock, and recent administration of mannitol. Only 9 patients with osmolal gap greater than 50 and no patients with osmolal gap greater than 100 were found to be negative for toxic alcohols. Conclusions Our study concurs with other investigations that show that osmolal gap can be a useful diagnostic test in conjunction with clinical history and physical

  2. Analysis of gender gaps in profession, career and pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela PASNICU

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Gender issues and concerns about its incorporation into all Community and national policies enjoy attention, both on the agenda of decision makers from the European Union and the Member States. Moreover, equality between women and men is one of the fundamental principles contained in the Charter of fundamental rights and at the same time, is also one of the founding principles of the EU, because it is based on the principle of “equal pay for equal work” stipulated in the Economics Community Treaty from Rome. The results presented in this article are based on questionnaire-based survey, conducted in ProFeminAntrep project financed on ESF, at national level, which included a sample of 3,200 respondents.

  3. Looking beyond the forest: Using harvest plots, gap analysis, and expert consultations to assess effectiveness, engage stakeholders, and inform policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, J; Polus, S; Brereton, L; Chilcott, J; Ward, S E; Pfadenhauer, L M; Rehfuess, E A

    2018-03-01

    We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home-based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home-based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

  5. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

  6. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  7. PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

    2018-01-01

    Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

  8. The Joint Front Range Climate Change Vulnerability Study: Closing the Gap between Science and Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaatz, L.; Yates, D.; Woodbury, M.

    2008-12-01

    advances in procedures and technologies that may further close the gap between science and decision making.

  9. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  10. Yield gap analysis of Chickpea under semi-arid conditions: A simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    seyed Reza Amiri Deh ahmadi; mehdi parsa; mohammad bannayan aval; mahdi nassiri mahallati

    2016-01-01

    Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield wa...

  11. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  12. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  13. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  14. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1991-01-01

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  15. Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

  16. Defining Antimicrobial Textile Requirements for Military Applications - A Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    yard of fabric for the ACU. The antimicrobial added to the Fire - Resistant Environmental Ensemble (FREE) socks increased cost about $2 per pair...There were also very little conclusive laboratory and field test data on the effectiveness, risks, and potential for bacterial resistance of use of...RISK ANALYSIS LABORATORY TESTS TEST AND EVALUATION FABRICS BODY ODOR REQUIREMENTS FUNGAL INFECTIONS

  17. Automated qualification and analysis of protective spark gaps for DC accelerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, Srutarshi; Rajan, Rehim N.; Dewangan, S.; Sharma, D.K.; Patel, Rupesh; Bakhtsingh, R.I.; Gond, Seema; Waghmare, Abhay; Thakur, Nitin; Mittal, K.C. [Accelerator and Pulse Power Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2014-07-01

    Protective spark gaps are used in the high voltage multiplier column of a 3 MeV DC Accelerator to prevent excessive voltage build-ups. Precise gap of 5 mm is maintained between the electrodes in these spark gaps for obtaining 120 kV± 5 kV in 6 kg/cm{sup 2} SF{sub 6} environment which is the dielectric medium. There are 74 such spark gaps used in the multiplier. Each spark gap has to be qualified for electrical performance before fitting in the accelerator to ensure reliable operation. As the breakdown voltage stabilizes after a large number of sparks between the electrodes, the qualification process becomes time consuming and cumbersome. For qualifying large number of spark gaps an automatic breakdown analysis setup has been developed. This setup operates in air, a dielectric medium. The setup consists of a flyback topology based high voltage power supply with maximum rating of 25 kV. This setup works in conjunction with spark detection and automated shutdown circuit. The breakdown voltage is sensed using a peak detector circuit. The voltage breakdown data is recorded and statistical distribution of the breakdown voltage has been analyzed. This paper describes details of the diagnostics and the spark gap qualification process based on the experimental data. (author)

  18. A Synthesis Of Knowledge About Caregiver Decision Making Finds Gaps In Support For Those Who Care For Aging Loved Ones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvelink, Mirjam M; Ngangue, Patrice A G; Adekpedjou, Rheda; Diouf, Ndeye T; Goh, Larissa; Blair, Louisa; Légaré, France

    2016-04-01

    We conducted a mixed-methods knowledge synthesis to assess the effectiveness of interventions to improve caregivers' involvement in decision making with seniors, and to describe caregivers' experiences of decision making in the absence of interventions. We analyzed forty-nine qualitative, fourteen quantitative, and three mixed-methods studies. The qualitative studies indicated that caregivers had unmet needs for information, discussions of values and needs, and decision support, which led to negative sentiments after decision making. Our results indicate that there have been insufficient quantitative evaluations of interventions to involve caregivers in decision making with seniors and that the evaluations that do exist found few clinically significant effects. Elements of usual care that received positive evaluations were the availability of a decision coach and a supportive decision-making environment. Additional rigorously evaluated interventions are needed to help caregivers be more involved in decision making with seniors. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  19. Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG): An integrated case-control analysis pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Derek J; Marin, Wesley; Hollenbach, Jill A; Mack, Steven J

    2016-03-01

    Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data-Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG) is an integrated data-analysis pipeline designed for the standardized analysis of highly-polymorphic genetic data, specifically for the HLA and KIR genetic systems. Most modern genetic analysis programs are designed for the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms, but the highly polymorphic nature of HLA and KIR data require specialized methods of data analysis. BIGDAWG performs case-control data analyses of highly polymorphic genotype data characteristic of the HLA and KIR loci. BIGDAWG performs tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, calculates allele frequencies and bins low-frequency alleles for k×2 and 2×2 chi-squared tests, and calculates odds ratios, confidence intervals and p-values for each allele. When multi-locus genotype data are available, BIGDAWG estimates user-specified haplotypes and performs the same binning and statistical calculations for each haplotype. For the HLA loci, BIGDAWG performs the same analyses at the individual amino-acid level. Finally, BIGDAWG generates figures and tables for each of these comparisons. BIGDAWG obviates the error-prone reformatting needed to traffic data between multiple programs, and streamlines and standardizes the data-analysis process for case-control studies of highly polymorphic data. BIGDAWG has been implemented as the bigdawg R package and as a free web application at bigdawg.immunogenomics.org. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Final report : Occupational gap analysis, volume 2 Wood Buffalo region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    The general economy of the Wood Buffalo region of Alberta has improved in recent years due to the expansion of the oil sand industry. Many of the oil sands projects are situated in the southern part of the region and are serviced out of Lac LaBiche. This paper examines the implications of this economic growth for the regional supply and demand of workers in key occupational categories. In particular, it projects employment opportunities that are directly attributed to the regional economic expansion, and assesses whether there will be an adequate supply of workers to meet the demand for new and replacement employees. The report includes: an overview of the regional economy; a population forecast for the region and the demand for workers in selected occupations; an analysis of whether or not the new labour force entrants will choose the selected occupations; and, a supply and demand analysis. 7 tabs., 2 figs., 5 appendices

  1. Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

    2016-09-01

    Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  3. Thermal protection system gap analysis using a loosely coupled fluid-structural thermal numerical method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jie; Li, Piao; Yao, Weixing

    2018-05-01

    A loosely coupled fluid-structural thermal numerical method is introduced for the thermal protection system (TPS) gap thermal control analysis in this paper. The aerodynamic heating and structural thermal are analyzed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and numerical heat transfer (NHT) methods respectively. An interpolation algorithm based on the control surface is adopted for the data exchanges on the coupled surface. In order to verify the analysis precision of the loosely coupled method, a circular tube example was analyzed, and the wall temperature agrees well with the test result. TPS gap thermal control performance was studied by the loosely coupled method successfully. The gap heat flux is mainly distributed in the small region at the top of the gap which is the high temperature region. Besides, TPS gap temperature and the power of the active cooling system (CCS) calculated by the traditional uncoupled method are higher than that calculated by the coupled method obviously. The reason is that the uncoupled method doesn't consider the coupled effect between the aerodynamic heating and structural thermal, however the coupled method considers it, so TPS gap thermal control performance can be analyzed more accurately by the coupled method.

  4. Major issues in threat analysis and resolving such problems: an addendum to the GAP analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.D. Surasinghe

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Identification of regions that warrant conservation attention is a top priority among global environmental concerns. Conventionally, this objective was achieved via recognizing natural landscapes based on the number of IUCN Red Listed species, percentage of endemism and species diversity. A recent innovation in conservation biology is the use of GIS-based threat analysis models to identify key areas of conservation importance. Compared with GAP Analysis, which only identifies biodiversity-rich unprotected lands, threat analysis serves as a rigorous tool in conservation planning which specifically recognizes threats and habitat suitability to different taxa based on a spatially-explicit analysis. Threat analysis is a highly flexible process which involves building up a model with multiple independent (without autocorrelations variables that both positively and negatively affect distribution and population persistence of a concerned species. Parameters include rate of land-use change, population density, population growth rate, land management regimes, protection status, habitat suitability and land stewardship. Threat analysis models can be used to understand the current status of a particular species (or a community and can be used to project future trends about the species under consideration. This publication provides an overview of uses of GIS-based threat analyses in conservation biology and provides insights on the limitations of these models and the directions that should be taken in future.

  5. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  6. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  7. Gap analysis: a method to assess core competency development in the curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fater, Kerry H

    2013-01-01

    To determine the extent to which safety and quality improvement core competency development occurs in an undergraduate nursing program. Rapid change and increased complexity of health care environments demands that health care professionals are adequately prepared to provide high quality, safe care. A gap analysis compared the present state of competency development to a desirable (ideal) state. The core competencies, Nurse of the Future Nursing Core Competencies, reflect the ideal state and represent minimal expectations for entry into practice from pre-licensure programs. Findings from the gap analysis suggest significant strengths in numerous competency domains, deficiencies in two competency domains, and areas of redundancy in the curriculum. Gap analysis provides valuable data to direct curriculum revision. Opportunities for competency development were identified, and strategies were created jointly with the practice partner, thereby enhancing relevant knowledge, attitudes, and skills nurses need for clinical practice currently and in the future.

  8. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  9. Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

    2010-07-01

    It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

  10. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  11. Intangibles and the gender wage gap: An analysis of gender wage gaps across occupations in the Finnish private sector

    OpenAIRE

    Asplund, Rita; Napari, Sami

    2011-01-01

    The paper compares the gender wage differentials of two occupation groups - innovation and non-innovation workers - separately for manufacturing and services using Finnish private-sector data. We apply a decomposition method based on unconditional quantile regression techniques to identify key factors underlying the gender wage gaps observed along the whole wage distribution, as well as changes in these wage gaps between 2002 and 2009. This more nuanced approach provides important new insight...

  12. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

    2000-01-01

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  13. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  14. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  15. Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

    1994-01-01

    To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

  16. Yield gap analysis of Chickpea under semi-arid conditions: A simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyed Reza Amiri Deh ahmadi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield was 1026 kg ha-1 indicating a 54% reduction in yield due to adverse soil moisture conditions. Also, the average irrigated and rainfed actual yields were respectively 64% and 79% less than simulated potential and water limited yields. Maximum and minimum yield gap between potential yield and actual yield were observed in Quchan and Torbat-jam respectively. Generally, yield gap showed an increasing trend from the north (including Nishabur, Mashhad, Quchan and Daregaz regions to the south of the province (Torbat- Jam and Gonabad. In addition, yield gap between simulated water limited potential yield and rainfed actual yield were very low because both simulated water limiting potential and average rainfed actual yields were low in these regions. Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield was 1026 kg ha-1 indicating a 54% reduction in yield due to adverse soil moisture conditions. Also, the average irrigated and rainfed actual yields were respectively 64% and 79% less than simulated potential and water limited yields

  17. 2014-2015 Partnership accomplishments report on joint activities: National Gap Analysis Program and LANDFIRE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Anne; McKerrow, Alexa; Long, Don; Earnhardt, Todd

    2015-01-01

    The intended target audience for this document initially is management and project technical specialist and scientists involved in the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - (LANDFIRE) program to help communicate coordination activities to all involved parties. This document is also intended to give background information in other parts of the USGS and beyond, although some details given are relatively oriented to management of the respective programs. Because the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - LANDFIRE programs both rely on characterizations of land cover using similar scales and resolutions, the programs have been coordinating their work to improve scientific consistency and efficiency of production. Initial discussions and informal sharing of ideas and work began in 2008. Although this collaboration was fruitful, there was no formal process for reporting results, plans, or outstanding issues, nor was there any formally-defined coordinated management team that spanned the two programs. In 2012, leadership from the two programs agreed to strengthen the coordination of their respective work efforts. In 2013 the GAP and LANDFIRE programs developed an umbrella plan of objectives and components related to three mutual focus areas for the GAP and LANDFIRE collaboration for the years 2013 and 2014 (GAP/LANDFIRE 2013). The evolution of this partnership resulted in the drafting of an inter-program Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2014. This MOU identified three coordination topics relevant to the two programs participating at this point in the MOU history: Vegetation mappingDisturbance classesFormal quality assessment

  18. Gap Analysis of Storage Conditions between NNSS and LANL for SAVY 4000 Use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reeves, Kirk Patrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Paul Herrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stone, Timothy Amos [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Becker, Chandler Gus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karns, Tristan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Veirs, Douglas Kirk [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-25

    As part of the gap analysis for utilizing the SAVY 4000® at NNSS, the hydrogen gas generation rate and the effect of atmospheric pressure changes on the maximum normal operating pressure (MNOP) of the SAVY container must be evaluated because the nuclear material characteristics and atmospheric conditions will not be the same for NNSS and LANL. This paper documents this analysis and demonstrates that the LANL SAVY Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is bounding with respect to the Nevada facilities.

  19. TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

    2016-01-01

    In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

  1. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

  2. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  3. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  4. Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. Methods An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers’ knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. Results The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer’s costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic

  5. A Gap Analysis of Employee Satisfaction within the National Parks: Anuenue National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bryan Daniel Kwai Sun

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing Clark and Estes' (2008) Gap Analysis Model, the purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge, motivation, and organization causes of and solutions for low employee satisfaction ratings at one particular park, referred to by its pseudonym, Anuenue (Hawaiian word for "Rainbow," and pronounced "Ah-noo-ay-noo-ay")…

  6. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

  7. Bridging the Rural-Urban Literacy Gap in China: A Mediation Analysis of Family Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingying; Li, Hui; Wang, Dan

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the effects of family involvement on the literacy gap between rural and urban Chinese primary students via mediation analysis. Altogether, 1080 students in Grades 1, 3, and 5 were randomly sampled from three urban and three rural primary schools from Shandong and Guizhou Provinces, representing eastern and western China,…

  8. Understanding the gender gap in antibiotic prescribing : a cross-sectional analysis of English primary care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, David R M; Dolk, F Christiaan K; Smieszek, Timo; Robotham, Julie V; Pouwels, Koen B

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To explore the causes of the gender gap in antibiotic prescribing, and to determine whether women are more likely than men to receive an antibiotic prescription per consultation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected electronic medical records from The Health

  9. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 6 - immunology

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. This has been updated with findings reported in a series of papers. Here we present findings for FMD immunology research. The paper consists of the following four sections: 1. Research prior...

  10. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

    1992-01-01

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  11. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  12. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.; Ellison, Paul B.; Francis, M.; Gabor, John D.; Gauntt, R.; Henry, C.; Linthicum, R.; Luangdilok, W.; Lutz, R.; Paik, C.; Plys, M.; Rabiti, Cristian; Rempe, J.; Robb, K.; Wachowiak, R.

    2015-01-01

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  13. GAP ANALYSIS OF TRAVELOKA.COM: HOTEL CONSUMERS’ EXPECTATIONS AND PERCEPTIONS OF THE WEBSITE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fransisca Andreani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Traveloka.com is one of the famous online travel agents to make hotel reservation in Indonesia. Consumers making online hotel reservation can sometimes find that the performance of the website does not meet their needs. This study is to analyze the gap between hotel consumer expectations and perceptions on the website dimensions of traveloka.com. It is a quantitative method with 150 respondents who made hotel re­ser­vations through traveloka.com. The analysis techniques used are mean test and paired t-test. The results show that there are significant gaps between consumer expectations and perceptions on the website dimensions of traveloka.com. The biggest gap is on the images displayed which are in accordance with the real conditions.

  14. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, Mitchell T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bunt, R. [Southern Nuclear, Atlanta, GA (United States); Corradini, M. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul B. [GE Power and Water, Duluth, GA (United States); Francis, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gabor, John D. [Erin Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Gauntt, R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Linthicum, R. [Exelon Corp., Chicago, IL (United States); Luangdilok, W. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Lutz, R. [PWR Owners Group (PWROG); Paik, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Plys, M. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rempe, J. [Rempe and Associates LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Robb, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wachowiak, R. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knovville, TN (United States)

    2015-01-31

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  15. GapCoder automates the use of indel characters in phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Nelson D; Healy, John

    2003-02-19

    Several ways of incorporating indels into phylogenetic analysis have been suggested. Simple indel coding has two strengths: (1) biological realism and (2) efficiency of analysis. In the method, each indel with different start and/or end positions is considered to be a separate character. The presence/absence of these indel characters is then added to the data set. We have written a program, GapCoder to automate this procedure. The program can input PIR format aligned datasets, find the indels and add the indel-based characters. The output is a NEXUS format file, which includes a table showing what region each indel characters is based on. If regions are excluded from analysis, this table makes it easy to identify the corresponding indel characters for exclusion. Manual implementation of the simple indel coding method can be very time-consuming, especially in data sets where indels are numerous and/or overlapping. GapCoder automates this method and is therefore particularly useful during procedures where phylogenetic analyses need to be repeated many times, such as when different alignments are being explored or when various taxon or character sets are being explored. GapCoder is currently available for Windows from http://www.home.duq.edu/~youngnd/GapCoder.

  16. Fit Gap Analysis – The Role of Business Process Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Pajk

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise resource planning (ERP systems support solutions for standard business processes such as financial, sales, procurement and warehouse. In order to improve the understandability and efficiency of their implementation, ERP vendors have introduced reference models that describe the processes and underlying structure of an ERP system. To select and successfully implement an ERP system, the capabilities of that system have to be compared with a company’s business needs. Based on a comparison, all of the fits and gaps must be identified and further analysed. This step usually forms part of ERP implementation methodologies and is called fit gap analysis. The paper theoretically overviews methods for applying reference models and describes fit gap analysis processes in detail. The paper’s first contribution is its presentation of a fit gap analysis using standard business process modelling notation. The second contribution is the demonstration of a process-based comparison approach between a supply chain process and an ERP system process reference model. In addition to its theoretical contributions, the results can also be practically applied to projects involving the selection and implementation of ERP systems.

  17. Decisiveness of the spectral gaps of periodic Schrödinger operators on the dumbbell-like metric graph

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroaki Niikuni

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider periodic Schrödinger operators on the dumbbell-like metric graph, which is a periodic graph consisting of lines and rings. Let one line and two rings be in the basic period. We see the relationship between the structure of graph and the band-gap spectrum.

  18. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that an Exploratory Studied Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical characterization decision because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing an constrains subsequent repository design. To assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative ESF-repository designs. The evaluation relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and enabled the Department of Energy to adopt an improved ESF design

  19. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  20. An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Li Meng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

  1. Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

  2. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orechwa, Y.

    2004-01-01

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  3. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  4. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  5. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

  7. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    1991-09-01

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  8. Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Bitz, D.A.; Berry, D.L.; Jardine, L.J.

    1994-05-01

    A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

  9. Dysfunctions of decision-making and cognitive control as transdiagnostic mechanisms of mental disorders: advances, gaps, and needs in current research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Disadvantageous decision-making and impaired volitional control over actions, thoughts, and emotions are characteristics of a wide range of mental disorders such as addiction, eating disorders, depression, and anxiety disorders and may reflect transdiagnostic core mechanisms and possibly vulnerability factors. Elucidating the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms is a precondition for moving from symptom-based to mechanism-based disorder classifications and ultimately mechanism-targeted interventions. However, despite substantial advances in basic research on decision-making and cognitive control, there are still profound gaps in our current understanding of dysfunctions of these processes in mental disorders. Central unresolved questions are: (i) to which degree such dysfunctions reflect transdiagnostic mechanisms or disorder-specific patterns of impairment; (ii) how phenotypical features of mental disorders relate to dysfunctional control parameter settings and aberrant interactions between large-scale brain systems involved in habit and reward-based learning, performance monitoring, emotion regulation, and cognitive control; (iii) whether cognitive control impairments are consequences or antecedent vulnerability factors of mental disorders; (iv) whether they reflect generalized competence impairments or context-specific performance failures; (v) whether not only impaired but also chronic over-control contributes to mental disorders. In the light of these gaps, needs for future research are: (i) an increased focus on basic cognitive-affective mechanisms underlying decision and control dysfunctions across disorders; (ii) longitudinal-prospective studies systematically incorporating theory-driven behavioural tasks and neuroimaging protocols to assess decision-making and control dysfunctions and aberrant interactions between underlying large-scale brain systems; (iii) use of latent-variable models of cognitive control rather than single tasks; (iv) increased focus on

  10. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  12. Spatio-temporal gap analysis of OBIS-SEAMAP project data: assessment and way forward.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Connie Y Kot

    Full Text Available The OBIS-SEAMAP project has acquired and served high-quality marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle data to the public since its inception in 2002. As data accumulated, spatial and temporal biases resulted and a comprehensive gap analysis was needed in order to assess coverage to direct data acquisition for the OBIS-SEAMAP project and for taxa researchers should true gaps in knowledge exist. All datasets published on OBIS-SEAMAP up to February 2009 were summarized spatially and temporally. Seabirds comprised the greatest number of records, compared to the other two taxa, and most records were from shipboard surveys, compared to the other three platforms. Many of the point observations and polyline tracklines were located in northern and central Atlantic and the northeastern and central-eastern Pacific. The Southern Hemisphere generally had the lowest representation of data, with the least number of records in the southern Atlantic and western Pacific regions. Temporally, records of observations for all taxa were the lowest in fall although the number of animals sighted was lowest in the winter. Oceanographic coverage of observations varied by platform for each taxa, which showed that using two or more platforms represented habitat ranges better than using only one alone. Accessible and published datasets not already incorporated do exist within spatial and temporal gaps identified. Other related open-source data portals also contain data that fill gaps, emphasizing the importance of dedicated data exchange. Temporal and spatial gaps were mostly a result of data acquisition effort, development of regional partnerships and collaborations, and ease of field data collection. Future directions should include fostering partnerships with researchers in the Southern Hemisphere while targeting datasets containing species with limited representation. These results can facilitate prioritizing datasets needed to be represented and for planning research for

  13. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abulfaraj, W.H.; Abdul-Fattah, A.F.

    1985-01-01

    Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

  14. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  15. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  16. Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine?- Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Bm, Berman

    2012-10-01

    In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of the best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than the evidence generated by traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on comparative effectiveness is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

  17. [Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine? Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Berman, Brian M

    2013-08-01

    In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than evidence generated by traditional randomized clinical trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on CER is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

  18. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  19. Results of the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) Gap Review: Specific Action Team (SAT), Examination of Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for Human Exploration of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, C. K.; Eppler, D.; Farrell, W.; Gruener, J.; Lawrence, S.; Pellis, N.; Spudis, P. D.; Stopar, J.; Zeigler, R.; Neal, C; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) was tasked by the Human Exploration Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to establish a Specific Action Team (SAT) to review lunar Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) within the context of new lunar data and some specific human mission scenarios. Within this review, the SAT was to identify the SKGs that have been fully or partially retired, identify new SKGs resulting from new data and observations, and review quantitative descriptions of measurements that are required to fill knowledge gaps, the fidelity of the measurements needed, and if relevant, provide examples of existing instruments or potential missions capable of filling the SKGs.

  20. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  1. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  2. Evaluation of Gap Conductance Approach for Mid-Burnup Fuel LOCA Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Joosuk; Woo, Swengwoong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this study, therefore, the applicability of gap conductance approach on the mid-burnup fuel in LOCA analysis was estimated in terms of the comparison of PCT distribution method means the fuel rod uncertainty is taken into account by the combination of overall uncertainty parameters of fuel rod altogether by use of a simple random sampling(SRS) technique. There are many uncertainty parameters of fuel rod that can change the PCT during LOCA analysis, and these have been identified by the authors' previous work already. But, for the 'best-estimate' LOCA safety analysis the methodology that dose not use the overall uncertainty parameters altogether but used the gap conductance uncertainty alone has been developed to simulate the overall fuel rod uncertainty, because it can represent many uncertainty parameters. Based on this approach, uncertainty range of gap conductance was prescribed as 0.67∼1.5 in audit calculation methodology on LBLOCA analysis. This uncertainty was derived from experimental data of fresh or low burnup fuel. Meanwhile, recent research work identify that the currently utilized uncertainty range seems to be not enough to encompass the uncertainty of mid-burnup fuel. Instead it has to be changed to 0.5∼2.4 for the mid-burnup fuel(30 MWd/kgU)

  3. Evaluation of Gap Conductance Approach for Mid-Burnup Fuel LOCA Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Joosuk; Woo, Swengwoong

    2013-01-01

    In this study, therefore, the applicability of gap conductance approach on the mid-burnup fuel in LOCA analysis was estimated in terms of the comparison of PCT distribution method means the fuel rod uncertainty is taken into account by the combination of overall uncertainty parameters of fuel rod altogether by use of a simple random sampling(SRS) technique. There are many uncertainty parameters of fuel rod that can change the PCT during LOCA analysis, and these have been identified by the authors' previous work already. But, for the 'best-estimate' LOCA safety analysis the methodology that dose not use the overall uncertainty parameters altogether but used the gap conductance uncertainty alone has been developed to simulate the overall fuel rod uncertainty, because it can represent many uncertainty parameters. Based on this approach, uncertainty range of gap conductance was prescribed as 0.67∼1.5 in audit calculation methodology on LBLOCA analysis. This uncertainty was derived from experimental data of fresh or low burnup fuel. Meanwhile, recent research work identify that the currently utilized uncertainty range seems to be not enough to encompass the uncertainty of mid-burnup fuel. Instead it has to be changed to 0.5∼2.4 for the mid-burnup fuel(30 MWd/kgU)

  4. Analysis of Stakeholder-Defined Needs in Northeast U.S. Coastal Communities to Determine Gaps in Research Informing Coastal Resilience Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, G. D.; Kenney, M. A.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Penn, K.

    2017-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on our coastlines are increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and state-to-local economies in the northeastern United States (U.S.). As a result of current or imminent risk of acute and chronic hazards, local, state and regional entities have taken steps to identify and address vulnerabilities to climate change. Decisions to increase coastal infrastructure resilience and grey, green, and cultural infrastructure solutions requires physical, natural, and social science that is useful for decision-making and effective science translation mechanisms. Despite the desire to conduct or fund science that meets the needs of communities, there has been no comprehensive analysis to determine stakeholder-defined research needs. To address this gap, this study conducts a stakeholder needs analysis in northeast U.S. coastal communities to determine gaps in information and translation processes supporting coastal resilience planning. Documents were sourced from local, state, and regional organizations in both the public and private sectors, using the northeast region defined by the third National Climate Assessment. Modeled after Dilling et al. (2015), a deductive coding schema was developed that categorized documents using specific search terms such as "Location and condition of infrastructure" and "Proactive planning". A qualitative document analysis was then executed using NVivo to formally identify patterns and themes present in stakeholder surveys, workshop proceedings, and reports. Initial stakeholder priorities centered around incorporation of climate science into planning and decision making regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure, enhanced emergency planning and response, and communication of key information.

  5. Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Mary

    2010-11-01

    Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  7. Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Less power or powerless? Egocentric empathy gaps and the irony of having little versus no power in social decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Handgraaf, M.J.J.; van Dijk, E.; Vermunt, R.C.; Wilke, H.A.M.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

    2008-01-01

    The authors investigate the effect of power differences and associated expectations in social decision making. Using a modified ultimatum game, the authors show that allocators lower their offers to recipients when the power difference shifts in favor of the allocator. Remarkably, however, when

  9. Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

    2018-01-01

    Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  11. Supplier Relationship Management at Army Life Cycle Management Commands: Gap Analysis of Best Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    contracts. - 76 - In step 9, maintaining momentum in supplier management , the relationship between the customer and supplier continues to develop...REPORT DATE 2012 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Supplier Relationship Management at Army Life... Relationship Management at Army Life Cycle Management Commands Gap Analysis of Best Practices Nancy Y. Moore, Amy G. Cox, Clifford A. Grammich

  12. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

  13. Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S

    2016-01-01

    Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

  14. Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

  15. Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelstam, Per; Mikusiński, Grzegorz; Rönnbäck, Britt-Inger; Ostman, Anders; Lazdinis, Marius; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Arnberg, Wolter; Olsson, Jan

    2003-12-01

    The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.

  16. Perioperative and ICU Healthcare Analytics within a Veterans Integrated System Network: a Qualitative Gap Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai, Seshadri; Ayer, Ferenc; Stefanko, Jerry

    2017-08-01

    Health care facilities are implementing analytics platforms as a way to document quality of care. However, few gap analyses exist on platforms specifically designed for patients treated in the Operating Room, Post-Anesthesia Care Unit, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU). As part of a quality improvement effort, we undertook a gap analysis of an existing analytics platform within the Veterans Healthcare Administration. The objectives were to identify themes associated with 1) current clinical use cases and stakeholder needs; 2) information flow and pain points; and 3) recommendations for future analytics development. Methods consisted of semi-structured interviews in 2 phases with a diverse set (n = 9) of support personnel and end users from five facilities across a Veterans Integrated Service Network. Phase 1 identified underlying needs and previous experiences with the analytics platform across various roles and operational responsibilities. Phase 2 validated preliminary feedback, lessons learned, and recommendations for improvement. Emerging themes suggested that the existing system met a small pool of national reporting requirements. However, pain points were identified with accessing data in several information system silos and performing multiple manual validation steps of data content. Notable recommendations included enhancing systems integration to create "one-stop shopping" for data, and developing a capability to perform trends analysis. Our gap analysis suggests that analytics platforms designed for surgical and ICU patients should employ approaches similar to those being used for primary care patients.

  17. [Analysis of several key problems of good agricultural practice (GAP) of Chinese materia medica].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Guo, Lan-Ping; Zhou, Xiu-Teng; Huang, Lu-Qi

    2016-04-01

    This paper reviewed the historical background of the GAP, analyzed the development experience of five Ps (GMP, GLP, GSP, GCP, GAP), analyzed the GAP based on economic theories, and pointed out that the core problem of GAP is ignoring economic laws. Once the GAP, is a process of certification, but neither the GAP announcement could be transformed into signal transmission quality in the product market, nor consumers could recognize the difference between GAP and non-GAP herbs in the terminal market, so manufacturers lack motivation for GAP certification. In this paper, we pointed out, that the GAP certification system should be redesigned under the guidance of economics, third party certification body, supervised by drug administration organization, to certificate GAP as high quality standards, to improve signal transduction mechanism of GAP certification, and to integrate GAP with the market. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  18. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  19. Information gaps in surveillance data and effects on the Ghanaian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conclusions: Gaps on CRFs can significantly reduce the utility of results of laboratory analysis for outbreak con- trol. Although ..... use of information in state agency decision-making. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory. 2012 ...

  20. Bridging the gap between selection decisions of facade systems at the early design phase: Issues, challenges and solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Kassema

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Building facade has a significant impact on the environmental and economic performance of buildings and projects. The specification of their elements at the early design phase depends on numerous technical, environmental and economic factors and involves several stakeholders. The procurement and delivery of the facade work package from the early design phase, through detailed design and manufacture, to installation is a process with several inherent risk factors due to the involved cost, technical and engineering complexities and its position on the critical path in all projects. This research investigates the process of selection and specification of building facade elements at the early design phases with the overarching aim of identifying the issues affecting specification decisions, their root causes and impact on projects. The research utilizes a mixed research approach which combines a retrospective case study and an industry survey as two research methods that build on each other. The findings suggest that the complexity of specification at the early design phases is exacerbated by factors such as the inadequate technical knowledge of stakeholders involved in the decision making process, the non-involvement of building facade consultants, the late involvement of specialist facade subcontractors, and in a few cases by some commercial exclusivity agreements that restricts specification decisions

  1. Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

    2014-01-01

    Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products 'just likely to be reimbursed'; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit. The results from the post

  2. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  3. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, ...

  4. Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sarah L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Watson, Andrea C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Grue, Nicholas W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Leisch, Jennifer E. [United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

    2018-03-16

    High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

  5. Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasa Majcen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Research methods  The research used several large datasets, about dwellings theoretical energy performance, most of which were related to energy label certificates. All the datasets containing theoretical performance were merged with actual energy data. In addition to that, some were also enriched with socioeconomic and behaviour related data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS or from surveys which were designed for the purpose of this research. Simple descriptive statistics were used to compare average theoretical and actual consumptions. Advanced statistical tests were used for detecting correlations, followed by several regression analyses. In a separate scenario study, the resulting averages of both theoretical and actual consumptions were extrapolated nation-wide in order to be compared with the existing policy targets. Due to low predictive power of the variables in regression analyses, a sensitivity analysis of the theoretical gas use was performed on six assumptions made in the theoretical calculation to show how an increment in one of the assumptions affects the final theoretical gas consumption and whether this can explain the performance gap. Last but not least, longitudinal data of the social housing dwelling stock between 2010 and 2013 was analysed, focusing on dwellings that had undergone renovation. The goal was to find out whether the theoretical reduction of consumption materialised and to what extent. A comparison of the actual reduction of different renovation measures was made in order to show what renovation practices lower the consumptions most effectively. The discrepancies between actual and theoretical heating energy consumption in Dutch dwellings. Discrepancies between theoretical and actual gas and electricity consumption On average, the total theoretical primary energy use seems to be in accordance with actual primary energy consumption but when looking at more detailed data, one can see that the contribution of gas to

  6. Structural analysis, electronic properties, and band gaps of a graphene nanoribbon: A new 2D materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, Devi

    2018-03-01

    Graphene nanoribbon (GNR), a new 2D carbon nanomaterial, has some unique features and special properties that offer a great potential for interconnect, nanoelectronic devices, optoelectronics, and nanophotonics. This paper reports the structural analysis, electronic properties, and band gaps of a GNR considering different chirality combinations obtained using the pz orbital tight binding model. In structural analysis, the analytical expressions for GNRs have been developed and verified using the simulation for the first time. It has been found that the total number of unit cells and carbon atoms within an overall unit cell and molecular structure of a GNR have been changed with the change in their chirality values which are similar to the values calculated using the developed analytical expressions thus validating both the simulation as well as analytical results. Further, the electronic band structures at different chirality values have been shown for the identification of metallic and semiconductor properties of a GNR. It has been concluded that all zigzag edge GNRs are metallic with very small band gaps range whereas all armchair GNRs show both the metallic and semiconductor nature with very small and high band gaps range. Again, the total number of subbands in each electronic band structure is equal to the total number of carbon atoms present in overall unit cell of the corresponding GNR. The semiconductors GNRs can be used as a channel material in field effect transistor suitable for advanced CMOS technology whereas the metallic GNRs could be used for interconnect.

  7. Sensitivity of super-efficient data envelopment analysis results to individual decision-making units: an example of surgical workload by specialty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; O'Neill, Liam; Xin, Lei; Ledolter, Johannes

    2008-12-01

    We use resampling of data to explore the basic statistical properties of super-efficient data envelopment analysis (DEA) when used as a benchmarking tool by the manager of a single decision-making unit. Our focus is the gaps in the outputs (i.e., slacks adjusted for upward bias), as they reveal which outputs can be increased. The numerical experiments show that the estimates of the gaps fail to exhibit asymptotic consistency, a property expected for standard statistical inference. Specifically, increased sample sizes were not always associated with more accurate forecasts of the output gaps. The baseline DEA's gaps equaled the mode of the jackknife and the mode of resampling with/without replacement from any subset of the population; usually, the baseline DEA's gaps also equaled the median. The quartile deviations of gaps were close to zero when few decision-making units were excluded from the sample and the study unit happened to have few other units contributing to its benchmark. The results for the quartile deviations can be explained in terms of the effective combinations of decision-making units that contribute to the DEA solution. The jackknife can provide all the combinations contributing to the quartile deviation and only needs to be performed for those units that are part of the benchmark set. These results show that there is a strong rationale for examining DEA results with a sensitivity analysis that excludes one benchmark hospital at a time. This analysis enhances the quality of decision support using DEA estimates for the potential ofa decision-making unit to grow one or more of its outputs.

  8. Quantification of gap junctional intercellular communication based on digital image analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofgaard, Johannes P; Mollerup, Sarah; Holstein-Rathlou, Niels-Henrik

    2009-01-01

    Intercellular communication via gap junction channels can be quantified by several methods based on diffusion of fluorescent dyes or metabolites. Given the variation in intercellular coupling of cells, even under untreated control conditions, it is of essence to quantify the coupling between...... and in cells receiving dye by intercellular diffusion. The analysis performed is semiautomatic, and comparison with traditional cell counting shows that this method reliably determines the effect of uncoupling by several interventions. This new method of analysis yields a rapid and objective quantification...

  9. "Mind the gap!" Evaluation of the performance gap attributable to exception reporting and target thresholds in the new GMS contract: National database analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cookson Richard

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 revision of the UK GMS contract rewards general practices for performance against clinical quality indicators. Practices can exempt patients from treatment, and can receive maximum payment for less than full coverage of eligible patients. This paper aims to estimate the gap between the percentage of maximum incentive gained and the percentage of patients receiving indicated care (the pay-performance gap, and to estimate how much of the gap is attributable respectively to thresholds and to exception reporting. Methods Analysis of Quality Outcomes Framework data in the National Primary Care Database and exception reporting data from the Information Centre from 8407 practices in England in 2005 – 6. The main outcome measures were the gap between the percentage of maximum incentive gained and the percentage of patients receiving indicated care at the practice level, both for individual indicators and a combined composite score. An additional outcome was the percentage of that gap attributable respectively to exception reporting and maximum threshold targets set at less than 100%. Results The mean pay-performance gap for the 65 aggregated clinical indicators was 13.3% (range 2.9% to 48%. 52% of this gap (6.9% of eligible patients is attributable to thresholds being set at less than 100%, and 48% to patients being exception reported. The gap was greater than 25% in 9 indicators: beta blockers and cholesterol control in heart disease; cholesterol control in stroke; influenza immunization in asthma; blood pressure, sugar and cholesterol control in diabetes; seizures in epilepsy and treatment of hypertension. Conclusion Threshold targets and exception reporting introduce an incentive ceiling, which substantially reduces the percentage of eligible patients that UK practices need to treat in order to receive maximum incentive payments for delivering that care. There are good clinical reasons for exception reporting, but after

  10. Stress analysis of disconnected structures in contact through finite element gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stadter, J.T.; Weiss, R.O.

    1976-07-01

    A numerical procedure is presented for analyzing thermal stress problems of disconnected structures in contact across separations or gaps. The new procedure is called SAASGAPS, an adaptation of the basic SAAS III computer program. The SAAS program uses the finite element method and allows analyses of plane and axisymmetric bodies with temperature dependent material properties, subject to thermal and mechanical loads. A secant modulus approach with a bilinear stress-strain curve is used for elastic-plastic problems. The SAASGAPS version contains all of the features of the original SAAS program. A special gap element is used together with a stress invariance principle to model the contact process. The iterative procedure implemented in SAASGAPS is described. Results are discussed for five problems involving frictionless contact. Two of these problems are associated with the thermal stress analysis of the heat shield for the Multi-Hundred Watt Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator. Input instructions for the program are described in an appendix

  11. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. CFD analysis of heat transfer in a vertical annular gas gap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgohain, A.; Maheshwari, N.K.; Vijayan, P.K.

    2011-01-01

    Heat transfer analysis in a vertical annulus is carried out by using a CFD code TRIO-U. The results are used to understand heat transfer in the vertical annulus. An experimental study is taken from literature for the CFD analysis. The geometry of the test section of the experiment is simulated in TRIO-U. The operating conditions of the experiment are simulated by imposing appropriate boundary conditions. Three modes of the heat transfer, conduction, radiation and convection in the gas gap are considered in the analysis. From the analysis it is found that TRIO-U can successfully handle all modes heat transfer. The theoretical results for heat transfer have been compared with experimental data. This paper deals with the detailed CFD modelling and analysis. (author)

  13. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  14. A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurth, Margaret; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Bates, Matthew E.; Bridges, Todd S.; Summers, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to facilitate a clean and independent energy future for the nation. Strategic planning for energy research and development (R&D) can be complex and dynamic, in part due to federal budgetary constraints and volatility. Managing R&D funding to advance energy technologies, in spite of these challenges, is a crucial component of the nation's long term energy policy. This study demonstrates a portfolio decision analysis (PDA) approach to support R&D resource allocation decisions for the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and Storage R&D program. A multi-attribute value model uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) and other metrics to represent the overall objectives of the R&D program in order to evaluate alternative research portfolios given limited funding. Mathematical optimization identifies efficient funding allocations for each technology program area to maximize the multi-attribute value generated from the total budget. This is especially useful for responding to externally imposed budget changes. As the case study demonstrates, explicitly funding the most value-generating options leads to greater expected R&D programmatic value than typical strategies of equal or proportional distributions of a budget change among technology program areas. - Highlights: • Decision analysis can minimize the effect of a budget decrement on an R&D program. • Greater expected benefits are yielded by differentially funding technologies. • Budget scenario testing illustrates factors that influence value generation. • Coordinating with US DOE bridges gap between decision research and practice.

  15. Gap analysis and conservation network for freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaowen, Li; Haijin, Zhuge; Li, Mengdi

    2013-01-01

    The Central Yangtze Ecoregion contains a large area of internationally important freshwater wetlands and supports a huge number of endangered waterbirds; however, these unique wetlands and the biodiversity they support are under the constant threats of human development pressures, and the prevailing conservation strategies generated based on the local scale cannot adequately be used as guidelines for ecoregion-based conservation initiatives for Central Yangtze at the broad scale. This paper aims at establishing and optimizing an ecological network for freshwater wetland conservation in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion based on large-scale gap analysis. A group of focal species and GIS-based extrapolation technique were employed to identify the potential habitats and conservation gaps, and the optimized conservation network was then established by combining existing protective system and identified conservation gaps. Our results show that only 23.49% of the potential habitats of the focal species have been included in the existing nature reserves in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion. To effectively conserve over 80% of the potential habitats for the focal species by optimizing the existing conservation network for the freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion, it is necessary to establish new wetland nature reserves in 22 county units across Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces.

  16. [Approaching the "evidence-practice gap" in pharmaceutical risk management: analysis of healthcare claim data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Takeo

    2012-01-01

    The concept of evidence-based medicine (EBM) has promulgated among healthcare professionals in recent years, on the other hand, the problem of underuse of useful clinical evidence is coming to be important. This is called as evidence-practice gap. The major concern about evidence-practice gap is insufficient implementation of evidence-based effective treatment, however, the perspective can be extended to measures to improve drug safety and prevention of drug related adverse events. First, this article reviews the characteristics of the database of receipt (healthcare claims) and the usefulness for research purpose of pharmacoepidemiology. Second, as the real example of the study on evidence-practice gap by using the receipt database, the case of ergot-derived anti-Parkinson drugs, of which risk of valvulopathy has been identified, is introduced. The receipt analysis showed that more than 70% of Parkinson's disease patients prescribed with cabergoline or pergolide did not undergo echocardiography despite the revision of the product label recommendation. Afterwards, the issues of pharmaceutical risk management and risk communication will be discussed.

  17. Innovative Competency Gap Analysis; A Malaysian Nuclear Research Institute Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muhd Husamuddin A Khalil; Zakaria Taib; Zuraida Zainudin; Munira Shaikh Nasir; Abul Adli Anuar

    2015-01-01

    Human resource development has become an essential component to the development process of Research and Development institute like Malaysian Nuclear Agency as it relies heavily on a specialized and highly trained work force for its technical capability and sustainability. In this paper, it is urged that human resource development be supported by appropriate survey tools to achieve its one of the most important objective which is to prepare training platforms that follow-through from the systematic competency gap analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to find the competency needs and investigate the competency gaps in Malaysia Nuclear Agency using modified Systematic Assessment of Regulatory Competence Needs for Regulatory Bodies of Nuclear Facilities (SARCoN) tools by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) based on basic, applied and specialized Science and Technology area of expertise. To achieve this purpose, the secretariat identified the appropriate competency statements based on each Division and investigation has been done on all the researchers to find the competency gaps via survey using SARCoN tools. On this ground, it has been concluded that a lot of competency on specialized subject matters need to be systematically analyzed using innovative analytical method that yield 2 important parameters: i. organizational core competencies; ii. Personnel core competencies. From a before and after comparison, it is concluded that the new strategy is better placed to manage the training and educational programme to preserve the sustainability of subject matter experts of nuclear HRD in this organization and Malaysia as a whole. (author)

  18. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  19. A decision analysis framework to support long-term planning for nuclear fuel cycle technology research, development, demonstration and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sowder, A.G.; Machiels, A.J.; Dykes, A.A.; Johnson, D.H.

    2013-01-01

    To address challenges and gaps in nuclear fuel cycle option assessment and to support research, develop and demonstration programs oriented toward commercial deployment, EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) is seeking to develop and maintain an independent analysis and assessment capability by building a suite of assessment tools based on a platform of software, simplified relationships, and explicit decision-making and evaluation guidelines. As a demonstration of the decision-support framework, EPRI examines a relatively near-term fuel cycle option, i.e., use of reactor-grade mixed-oxide fuel (MOX) in U.S. light water reactors. The results appear as a list of significant concerns (like cooling of spent fuels, criticality risk...) that have to be taken into account for the final decision

  20. Minding the Cyber-Physical Gap: Model-Based Analysis and Mitigation of Systemic Perception-Induced Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaniv Mordecai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The cyber-physical gap (CPG is the difference between the ‘real’ state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is inevitable at some degree in any cyber-physical system (CPS. Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME, a conceptual model-based approach to capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG. CPGAME enhances the systems engineer’s ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions and actions. We demonstrate CPGAME by applying it for modeling and analysis of the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident, and show how its meltdown could be mitigated. We use ISO-19450:2015—Object Process Methodology as our conceptual modeling framework.

  1. Benchmarking and gap analysis of faculty mentorship priorities and how well they are met.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruner, Deborah Watkins; Dunbar, Sandra; Higgins, Melinda; Martyn, Kristy

    2016-01-01

    There is little consensus among faculty mentoring programs as to best practices. While there are recommendations in the literature to base faculty development programs on gap analyses of faculty ratings of actual and preferred performance in teaching, scholarship and service, no gap analysis was found in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop a survey tool to benchmark school of nursing (SON) faculty mentorship priorities and conduct a gap analysis of how well they were being addressed. Senior faculty who lead mentorship as part of their roles in the SON (associate and assistant deans and director of mentorship) developed a survey through (a) asking faculty members for priorities at in-person mentorship seminars, (b) a review of current nursing literature, and (c) input from the SON mentorship advisory board. The final survey included 37 items focused on general job duties, structure of the mentoring program, time management, as well as skills needed for research, teaching, practice, writing and team science. Responses (rated from 0-not important to 5-very high priority) were requested in 4 areas: the first area focused on how high a priority the respondent rated a given item and areas 2 to 4 focused on how well the need was met by one of three resources: their SON primary assigned mentor, other SON resources, or other university resources. There were 63 eligible SON faculty to whom the survey was e-mailed with a 60% (n = 38) response rate. Most of the respondents were clinical track (42.1%) followed by tenure track (39.5%) and research track (15.8%). Half were assistant professors. The percentage of respondents giving a rating of 4 to 5 were calculated and then ranked. Almost all the faculty responding, regardless of track or rank, desired formal mentorship. Among all faculty, the top five priorities were guidance on producing timely publications (70.4%), mentorship on work-life balance (68%), mentorship on putting together a promotion

  2. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  3. Flexible Decision Support in Dynamic Interorganizational Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Collins (John); W. Ketter (Wolfgang); M. Gini (Maria)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractAn effective Decision Support System (DSS) should help its users improve decision-making in complex, information-rich, environments. We present a feature gap analysis that shows that current decision support technologies lack important qualities for a new generation of agile business

  4. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  5. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  6. Managing the 'gaps' in a regimen of control - operational decision making in nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDougall, S.J.

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear power performance has significantly improved over the last thirty years. This improvement has been based on a philosophy of control. That is, for each issue that must be managed to achieve safe performance, a pre-determined constraint must be established. In addition to the barriers that were designed into the plant, a large range of programs, processes and procedures have been developed to direct the activities of anyone associated with the plant. The premise is that following pre-determined procedures, in a diligent way, will support ongoing plant safety. But what if an issue arises for which there is no procedure? For serious situations, emergency procedures exist to guide operations personnel to place the plant in a safe state. However, the vast majority of issues are much more mundane and form a part of the daily life in the plant. In these cases the nuclear industry has been encouraging the use of an 'Operational Decision Making' (ODM) process. This paper will review ODM as practiced within the context of the governing paradigm of control. The paper will show the strengths of the process and areas for development. ODM is an important tool for managers within the complex socio-technical system that is nuclear power today. This paper summarises key points from a research thesis completed by the author to meet the requirements of an MSc program in 'Human Factors and System Safety'. (author)

  7. Managing the 'gaps' in a regimen of control - operational decision making in nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDougall, S.J. [Leading Safety Culture Inc., Port Elgin, ON (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear power performance has significantly improved over the last thirty years. This improvement has been based on a philosophy of control. That is, for each issue that must be managed to achieve safe performance, a pre-determined constraint must be established. In addition to the barriers that were designed into the plant, a large range of programs, processes and procedures have been developed to direct the activities of anyone associated with the plant. The premise is that following pre-determined procedures, in a diligent way, will support ongoing plant safety. But what if an issue arises for which there is no procedure? For serious situations, emergency procedures exist to guide operations personnel to place the plant in a safe state. However, the vast majority of issues are much more mundane and form a part of the daily life in the plant. In these cases the nuclear industry has been encouraging the use of an 'Operational Decision Making' (ODM) process. This paper will review ODM as practiced within the context of the governing paradigm of control. The paper will show the strengths of the process and areas for development. ODM is an important tool for managers within the complex socio-technical system that is nuclear power today. This paper summarises key points from a research thesis completed by the author to meet the requirements of an MSc program in 'Human Factors and System Safety'. (author)

  8. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  9. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  10. Decision making in quasi-markets: a pedagogic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, P R; Cullis, J G

    1996-04-01

    The objective of the 1991 NHS reforms was to reduce "excessive" vertical integration by constructing a quasi-market in which incentive structures and increased availability of information would enable decision makers make better use of resources. There is, however, no overall framework in which to consider the welfare gains which result from the introduction of a quasi-market or the welfare losses which arise from distortions in a quasi-market. This paper offers an analysis which can be applied to illustrate the difficulty of estimating the welfare loss from cream skimming and also to consider the impact of local monopoly.

  11. An organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scahill, Shane L; Carswell, Peter; Harrison, Jeff

    2011-09-01

    The barriers to moving forward and meeting the expectations of policy makers and professional pharmacy bodies appear to relate to the organizational culture of community pharmacy. Despite the importance of cultural change for business transformation, organizational culture has largely gone unnoticed in community pharmacy practice research. To perform an organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies. Mean scores from a cultural rating survey (n=47) were calculated for 8 cultural clusters and mapped onto a typical and a beneficial pattern match (ladder diagram) for each case site. These ladder diagrams provide an understanding of the gap between the 2 ratings based on the gradient of the lines joining cultural clusters-the rungs of the ladder. Software can be used to generate a Pearson correlation describing the strength of the relationship between the typical and beneficial ratings. Eight cultural clusters were mapped: "leadership and staff management"; "valuing each other and the team"; "free-thinking, fun and, open to challenge"; "trusted behavior"; "customer relations"; "focus on external integration"; "provision of systematic advice"; and the "embracing of innovation." Analysis suggested a high level of correlation between the means of the typical and beneficial ratings. Although the variance between average ratings might be quite small, the relative difference can still be meaningful to participants in the cultural setting. The diagrams suggest a requirement for external integration, the provision of systematic advice, and the embracing of innovation to become more typical in most pharmacies. Trusted behavior is the most typical and most beneficial cultural dimension in most pharmacies, whereas valuing each other and the team is the least beneficial. Gaps in organizational culture have been identified through the use of a rating survey. The dimensions of focus on external integration, providing systematic advice, and embracing

  12. Bridging the age gap in breast cancer: evaluation of decision support interventions for older women with operable breast cancer: protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Karen; Reed, Malcolm; Lifford, Kate; Burton, Maria; Edwards, Adrian; Ring, Alistair; Brain, Katherine; Harder, Helena; Robinson, Thompson; Cheung, Kwok Leung; Morgan, Jenna; Audisio, Riccardo; Ward, Susan; Richards, Paul; Martin, Charlene; Chater, Tim; Pemberton, Kirsty; Nettleship, Anthony; Murray, Christopher; Walters, Stephen; Bortolami, Oscar; Armitage, Fiona; Leonard, Robert; Gath, Jacqui; Revell, Deirdre; Green, Tracy; Wyld, Lynda

    2017-07-31

    While breast cancer outcomes are improving steadily in younger women due to advances in screening and improved therapies, there has been little change in outcomes among the older age group. It is inevitable that comorbidities/frailty rates are higher, which may increase the risks of some breast cancer treatments such as surgery and chemotherapy, many older women are healthy and may benefit from their use. Adjusting treatment regimens appropriately for age/comorbidity/frailty is variable and largely non-evidence based, specifically with regard to rates of surgery for operable oestrogen receptor-positive disease and rates of chemotherapy for high-risk disease. This multicentre, parallel group, pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) (2015-18) reported here is nested within a larger ongoing 'Age Gap Cohort Study' (2012-18RP-PG-1209-10071), aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention of decision support interventions to assist in the treatment decision making for early breast cancer in older women. The interventions include two patient decision aids (primary endocrine therapy vs surgery/antioestrogen therapy and chemotherapy vs no chemotherapy) and a clinical treatment outcomes algorithm for clinicians. National and local ethics committee approval was obtained for all UK participating sites. Results from the trial will be submitted for publication in international peer-reviewed scientific journals. 115550. European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials (EudraCT) number 2015-004220-61;Pre-results. Sponsor's Protocol Code Number Sheffield Teaching Hospitals STH17086. ISRCTN 32447*. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  13. Gap Acceptance During Lane Changes by Large-Truck Drivers—An Image-Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J.; Zhao, Ding; Peng, Huei; Pan, Christopher S.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of rearward gap acceptance characteristics of drivers of large trucks in highway lane change scenarios. The range between the vehicles was inferred from camera images using the estimated lane width obtained from the lane tracking camera as the reference. Six-hundred lane change events were acquired from a large-scale naturalistic driving data set. The kinematic variables from the image-based gap analysis were filtered by the weighted linear least squares in order to extrapolate them at the lane change time. In addition, the time-to-collision and required deceleration were computed, and potential safety threshold values are provided. The resulting range and range rate distributions showed directional discrepancies, i.e., in left lane changes, large trucks are often slower than other vehicles in the target lane, whereas they are usually faster in right lane changes. Video observations have confirmed that major motivations for changing lanes are different depending on the direction of move, i.e., moving to the left (faster) lane occurs due to a slower vehicle ahead or a merging vehicle on the right-hand side, whereas right lane changes are frequently made to return to the original lane after passing. PMID:26924947

  14. Gap Acceptance During Lane Changes by Large-Truck Drivers-An Image-Based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Zhao, Ding; Peng, Huei; Pan, Christopher S

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents an analysis of rearward gap acceptance characteristics of drivers of large trucks in highway lane change scenarios. The range between the vehicles was inferred from camera images using the estimated lane width obtained from the lane tracking camera as the reference. Six-hundred lane change events were acquired from a large-scale naturalistic driving data set. The kinematic variables from the image-based gap analysis were filtered by the weighted linear least squares in order to extrapolate them at the lane change time. In addition, the time-to-collision and required deceleration were computed, and potential safety threshold values are provided. The resulting range and range rate distributions showed directional discrepancies, i.e., in left lane changes, large trucks are often slower than other vehicles in the target lane, whereas they are usually faster in right lane changes. Video observations have confirmed that major motivations for changing lanes are different depending on the direction of move, i.e., moving to the left (faster) lane occurs due to a slower vehicle ahead or a merging vehicle on the right-hand side, whereas right lane changes are frequently made to return to the original lane after passing.

  15. Using fuzzy gap analysis to measure service quality of medical tourism in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Li-Hsing; Feng, Shu-Yun; Yen, Tieh-Min

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is intended to create a model to measure quality of service, using fuzzy linguistics to analyze the quality of service of medical tourism in Taiwan so as to find the direction for improvement of service quality in medical tourism. The study developed fuzzy questionnaires based on the characteristics of medical tourism quality of service in Taiwan. Questionnaires were delivered and recovered from February to April 2014, using random sampling according to the proportion of medical tourism companies in each region, and 150 effective samples were obtained. The critical quality of service level is found through the fuzzy gap analysis using questionnaires examining expectations and perceptions of customers, as the direction for continuous improvement. From the study, the primary five critical service items that improve the quality of service for medical tourism in Taiwan include, in order: the capability of the service provider to provide committed medical tourism services reliably and accurately, facility service providers in conjunction with the services provided, the cordial and polite attitude of the service provider eliciting a sense of trust from the customer, professional ability of medical (nursing) personnel in hospital and reliability of service provider. The contribution of this study is to create a fuzzy gap analysis to assess the performance of medical tourism service quality, identify key quality characteristics and provide a direction for improvement and development for medical tourism service quality in Taiwan.

  16. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  17. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  18. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-03-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool.

  19. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  20. Gap-metric-based robustness analysis of nonlinear systems with full and partial feedback linearisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Gburi, A.; Freeman, C. T.; French, M. C.

    2018-06-01

    This paper uses gap metric analysis to derive robustness and performance margins for feedback linearising controllers. Distinct from previous robustness analysis, it incorporates the case of output unstructured uncertainties, and is shown to yield general stability conditions which can be applied to both stable and unstable plants. It then expands on existing feedback linearising control schemes by introducing a more general robust feedback linearising control design which classifies the system nonlinearity into stable and unstable components and cancels only the unstable plant nonlinearities. This is done in order to preserve the stabilising action of the inherently stabilising nonlinearities. Robustness and performance margins are derived for this control scheme, and are expressed in terms of bounds on the plant nonlinearities and the accuracy of the cancellation of the unstable plant nonlinearity by the controller. Case studies then confirm reduced conservatism compared with standard methods.

  1. A Semiotic Analysis of the Gender Equality Paradigm. Case study: the Gender Pay Gap Campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mădălina Manolache

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the new European space of identity, attitude and action challenges, syntagms such as “unity in diversity” or “equal pay for work of equal value” have become identitarian brands for social groups with a high-level of self-awareness. Having the social semiotics (Kress, van Leeuwen [1996] 2006 as theoretical background, we focused our analysis on the gender equality paradigm. The empirical data were provided by four visual texts of the Gender Pay Gap campaign, initiated by the European Commission in March 2009, in order to map the new European “puzzle-space” . The analysis showed the importance of compositional, representational and interactive meanings within the European discourse on equality of chances and gender.

  2. Bridging the Gap between RF and Optical Patch Antenna Analysis via the Cavity Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unal, G S; Aksun, M I

    2015-11-02

    Although optical antennas with a variety of shapes and for a variety of applications have been proposed and studied, they are still in their infancy compared to their radio frequency (rf) counterparts. Optical antennas have mainly utilized the geometrical attributes of rf antennas rather than the analysis tools that have been the source of intuition for antenna engineers in rf. This study intends to narrow the gap of experience and intuition in the design of optical patch antennas by introducing an easy-to-understand and easy-to-implement analysis tool in rf, namely, the cavity model, into the optical regime. The importance of this approach is not only its simplicity in understanding and implementation but also its applicability to a broad class of patch antennas and, more importantly, its ability to provide the intuition needed to predict the outcome without going through the trial-and-error simulations with no or little intuitive guidance by the user.

  3. CFD Analysis for Predicting Flow Resistance of the Cross Flow Gap in Prismatic VHTR Core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jeong Hun; Yoon, Su Jong; Park, Goon Cherl; Park, Jong Woon

    2011-01-01

    The core of Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) consists of assemblies of hexagonal graphite blocks and its height and across-flats width are 800 mm and 360 mm respectively. They are equipped with 108 coolant holes 16 mm in diameter. Up to ten fuel blocks arranged in vertical order form a fuel element column and the neutron flux varies over the cross section of the core. It makes different axial shrinkage of fuel element and this leads to make wedge-shaped gaps between the base and top surfaces of stacked blocks. The cross flow is defined as the core flow that passes through this cross gaps. The cross flow complicates the flow distribution of reactor core. Moreover, the cross flow could lead to uneven coolant distribution and consequently to superheating of individual fuel element zones with increased fission product release. Since the core cross flow has a negative impact on safety and efficiency of VHTR, core cross flow phenomena have to be investigated to improve the core thermal margin of VHTR. In particular, to predict amount of flow at the cross flow gap obtaining accurate flow loss coefficient is important. Nevertheless, there has not been much effort in domestic. The experiment of cross flow was carried out by H. G. Groehn in 1981 Germany. For the study of cross flow the applicability of CFD code should be validated. In this paper a commercial CFD code CFX-12 validation will be carried out with this cross flow experiment. Validated data can be used for validation of other thermal-hydraulic analysis codes

  4. Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

    OpenAIRE

    Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are quantified, yield gaps evaluated by crop experts, current yield progress by breeding estimated, and different yield projections compared. Results show decreasing yield growth for wheat and rice, but ...

  5. The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Angela L; Gauthier, Alison M; Ferracini, Tyler; Cowan, Dallas M; Kingsbury, Tony; Panko, Julie

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, 3 methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list-based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in 2 modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggesting that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but that are important to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:198-207. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  6. Engineers and the Web: An analysis of real life gaps in information usage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraaijenbrink, Jeroen

    2007-01-01

    Engineers face a wide range of gaps when trying to identify, acquire, and utilize information from the Web. To be able to avoid creating such gaps, it is essential to understand them in detail. This paper reports the results of a study of the real life gaps in information usage processes of 17

  7. Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are

  8. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-08-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  9. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  10. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  11. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Freshwater Resource Management in Southwestern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, C.; Baroud, H.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater resources in coastal Bangladesh fluctuate with extreme periods of shortage and abundance. Bangladeshis have adapted to these alternating periods but are still plagued with scarce drinking water resources due to pond water pathogens, salinity of groundwater, and arsenic contamination. The success of attempts to correct the problem of unsafe drinking water have varied across the southern Bangladesh as a result of physical and social factors. We use a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to explore the various physical and social factors that influence decisions about freshwater technologies and management schemes in southern Bangladesh. To determine the best freshwater technologies and management schemes, we examine four alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge (MAR), pond sand filter (PSF), rain water harvesting (RWH), and tubewells (TW). Criteria are grouped into four categories (environmental, technical, social, and economic) and weighting of social factors will be determined by community surveys, non-governmental organizations (NGO) opinions, and academic interviews. Social data include regional water quality perceptions, perceptions of management/technology success, MAR community surveys, and interviews with NGO partners. Environmental and technical feasibility factors are determined from regional water quality data, geospatial information, land use/land change, and regional stratigraphy. Survey data suggest a wide range of criteria based on location and stakeholder perception. MAR and PSF technologies likely have the greatest environmental and technical potential for success but are highly influenced by community dynamics, individual perspective, and NGO involvement. RWH solutions are used frequently and are successful at reducing the water security threats of contamination by pathogens, arsenic, and salts. This MCDA informs us of community and stakeholder water resource decisions, specifically related to their objectives and preferences.

  12. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  13. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  14. The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

    1990-01-01

    Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

  15. Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mkrtchyan, L.; Podofillini, L.; Dang, V.N.

    2015-01-01

    The use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) in risk analysis (and in particular Human Reliability Analysis, HRA) is fostered by a number of features, attractive in fields with shortage of data and consequent reliance on subjective judgments: the intuitive graphical representation, the possibility of combining diverse sources of information, the use the probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainties. In HRA, BBN applications are steadily increasing, each emphasizing a different BBN feature or a different HRA aspect to improve. This paper aims at a critical review of these features as well as at suggesting research needs. Five groups of BBN applications are analysed: modelling of organizational factors, analysis of the relationships among failure influencing factors, BBN-based extensions of existing HRA methods, dependency assessment among human failure events, assessment of situation awareness. Further, the paper analyses the process for building BBNs and in particular how expert judgment is used in the assessment of the BBN conditional probability distributions. The gaps identified in the review suggest the need for establishing more systematic frameworks to integrate the different sources of information relevant for HRA (cognitive models, empirical data, and expert judgment) and to investigate algorithms to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment. - Highlights: • We analyze BBN uses for HRA applications; but some conclusions can be generalized. • Special review focus on BBN building approaches, key for model acceptance. • Gaps relate to the transparency of the BBN building and quantification phases. • Need for more systematic framework to integrate different sources of information. • Need of ways to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment

  16. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  17. Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K.; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K.; Barbour, Sean J.; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A.; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J.; Mahoney, Shannon L.; Jennette, J. Charles; Hogan, Susan L.; Falk, Ronald J.; Cattran, Daniel C.; Reich, Heather N.; Nachman, Patrick H.

    2014-01-01

    Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3 g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2 g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2 g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual’s bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (http://www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual’s needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile. PMID:24336031

  18. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  19. A Practical Application of Statistical Gap Analysis in National Park Management in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aguirre González, Juan Antonio

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available If the tourism growth predicted materialized as tourism for Costa Rica protected areas would see major increases. A study conducted in Volcan Poas National Park and Volcan Turrialba National Park two of Costa Rica leading volcanic crater parks was undertaken to make available to national parks and protected areas managers, a procedure, that could be use: to measure using an adapted form of the expectations disconfirmation theory the satisfaction of visitors to Costa Rica national parks, and to evaluate if the results could be used for establishing the areas of the park infrastructure, services and recreational options that needed improvement and management decisions to enhance visitor's satisfaction. The sample included 1414 surveys The findings indicates that the procedure adapted base on the expectations-disconfirmation model was proven helpful in: a getting the information to help “zero in”, the man-agement decisions in the short and medium term and for the development of the Tourist Management Plans that is to say being developed in the 2 sites, b guiding park managers in the resource allocation process, under the conditions of scarcity that are so common in developing countries, c facilitating regular monitoring of the conditions, with a simple and quick methodology that can be used for “day to day” decisions and more sophisticated statistical analysis d identifying the areas in the management of protected areas that need further analysis and in that way is contributing to the development of the long term socio-economic research programs in national parks, e the “real” importance of the information and education activities in national parks, combination of activities that seems to be critical to enhance “consumer satisfaction” among the visitors to national parks everywhere and particularly as a means of understanding whether visitors needs and expectations are met, whether they receive what they should and as a context for

  20. Decision aids for patients facing a surgical treatment decision: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knops, Anouk M.; Legemate, Dink A.; Goossens, Astrid; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Ubbink, Dirk T.

    2013-01-01

    To summarize the evidence available on the effects of decision aids in surgery. When consenting to treatment, few patients adequately understand their treatment options. To help patients make deliberate treatment choices, decision aids provide evidence-based information on the disease, treatment

  1. The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

  2. Investigation on prediction capability of nuclear design parameters for gap configuration in ITER through analysis of the FNS gap streaming experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maekawa, Fujio; Konno, Chikara; Kasugai, Yoshimi; Oyama, Yukio; Uno, Yoshitomo; Maekawa, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Yujiro

    2000-01-01

    As an R and D Task of shielding neutronics experiment under the Engineering Design Activities of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), streaming experiments with simulating a gap configuration formed by two neighboring blanket modules of ITER were carried out at the FNS (Fusion Neutron Source) facility. In this work, prediction capability of various nuclear design parameters was investigated through analysis of the experiments. The Monte Carlo transport calculation code MCNP-4A and the FENDL/E-1.0 and JENDL Fusion File cross section data libraries were used for the analysis with detailed modeling of the experimental conditions. As a result, all the measured quantities were reproduced within about ±30% by the calculations. It was concluded that these calculation tools were capable of predicting nuclear design parameters, such as helium production rates at connection legs of blanket modules to the back plate and nuclear responses in toroidal field coils, with uncertainty of ±30% for the geometry where gap-streaming effect was significant. (author)

  3. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Klimack, William

    2002-01-01

    .... The impact of these differences was examined to improve implementation efficiency. The robustness of the decision model was examined with respect to the preference functions to reduce the time burden imposed on the decision maker...

  4. Identification and Analysis of Critical Gaps in Nuclear Fuel Cycle Codes Required by the SINEMA Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miron, Adrian; Valentine, Joshua; Christenson, John; Hawwari, Majd; Bhatt, Santosh; Dunzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Lineberry, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The current state of the art in nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) modeling is an eclectic mixture of codes with various levels of applicability, flexibility, and availability. In support of the advanced fuel cycle systems analyses, especially those by the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), University of Cincinnati in collaboration with Idaho State University carried out a detailed review of the existing codes describing various aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle and identified the research and development needs required for a comprehensive model of the global nuclear energy infrastructure and the associated nuclear fuel cycles. Relevant information obtained on the NFC codes was compiled into a relational database that allows easy access to various codes' properties. Additionally, the research analyzed the gaps in the NFC computer codes with respect to their potential integration into programs that perform comprehensive NFC analysis.

  5. Identification and Analysis of Critical Gaps in Nuclear Fuel Cycle Codes Required by the SINEMA Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adrian Miron; Joshua Valentine; John Christenson; Majd Hawwari; Santosh Bhatt; Mary Lou Dunzik-Gougar: Michael Lineberry

    2009-10-01

    The current state of the art in nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) modeling is an eclectic mixture of codes with various levels of applicability, flexibility, and availability. In support of the advanced fuel cycle systems analyses, especially those by the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), Unviery of Cincinnati in collaboration with Idaho State University carried out a detailed review of the existing codes describing various aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle and identified the research and development needs required for a comprehensive model of the global nuclear energy infrastructure and the associated nuclear fuel cycles. Relevant information obtained on the NFC codes was compiled into a relational database that allows easy access to various codes' properties. Additionally, the research analyzed the gaps in the NFC computer codes with respect to their potential integration into programs that perform comprehensive NFC analysis.

  6. Gendered use of experts in the media: Analysis of the gender gap in Finnish news journalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Mari K; Pitkänen, Ville

    2017-04-01

    Several studies conducted in Western democracies have indicated that men continue to be overrepresented and women underrepresented as experts in the media. This article explores the situation in Finland, a progressive and 'female-friendly' Nordic country with highly educated women who are widely present in the job market. The analysis is based on three sets of research data featuring a wide set of media data, a survey and interviews. This study reveals that public expertise continues to be male dominated in Finland: less than 30% of the experts interviewed in the news media are women. While the distribution of work and power in the labour market may explain some of the observed gender gap, journalistic practices and a masculine tradition of public expertise are likely to play a role as well.

  7. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  8. THE COGNITIVE COMPETENCES OF IMMIGRANT AND NATIVE STUDENTS ACROSS THE WORLD: AN ANALYSIS OF GAPS, POSSIBLE CAUSES AND IMPACT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Thompson, James

    2016-01-01

    Immigration, immigration policies and education of immigrants alter competence levels. This study analysed their effects using PISA, TIMSS and PIRLS data (1995 to 2012, N=93 nations) for natives' and immigrants' competences, competence gaps and their population proportions. The mean gap is equivalent to 4.71 IQ points. There are large differences across countries in these gaps ranging from around +12 to -10 IQ points. Migrants' proportions grow roughly 4% per decade. The largest immigrant-based 'brain gains' are observed for Arabian oil-based economies, and the largest 'brain losses' for Central Europe. Regarding causes of native-immigrant gaps, language problems do not seem to explain them. However, English-speaking countries show an advantage. Acculturation within one generation and intermarriage usually reduce native-immigrant gaps (≅1 IQ point). National educational quality reduces gaps, especially school enrolment at a young age, the use of tests and school autonomy. A one standard deviation increase in school quality represents a closing of around 1 IQ point in the native-immigrant gap. A new Greenwich IQ estimation based on UK natives' cognitive ability mean is recommended. An analysis of the first adult OECD study PIAAC revealed that larger proportions of immigrants among adults reduce average competence levels and positive Flynn effects. The effects on economic development and suggestions for immigration and educational policy are discussed.

  9. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  10. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  11. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  12. Hyperspectral wide gap second derivative analysis for in vivo detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Wenli; Wang, Chaojian; Chang, Shufang; Zhang, Shiwu; Xu, Ronald X.

    2015-12-01

    Hyperspectral reflectance imaging technique has been used for in vivo detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. However, the clinical outcome of this technique is suboptimal owing to multiple limitations such as nonuniform illumination, high-cost and bulky setup, and time-consuming data acquisition and processing. To overcome these limitations, we acquired the hyperspectral data cube in a wavelength ranging from 600 to 800 nm and processed it by a wide gap second derivative analysis method. This method effectively reduced the image artifacts caused by nonuniform illumination and background absorption. Furthermore, with second derivative analysis, only three specific wavelengths (620, 696, and 772 nm) are needed for tissue classification with optimal separability. Clinical feasibility of the proposed image analysis and classification method was tested in a clinical trial where cervical hyperspectral images from three patients were used for classification analysis. Our proposed method successfully classified the cervix tissue into three categories of normal, inflammation and high-grade lesion. These classification results were coincident with those by an experienced gynecology oncologist after applying acetic acid. Our preliminary clinical study has demonstrated the technical feasibility for in vivo and noninvasive detection of cervical neoplasia without acetic acid. Further clinical research is needed in order to establish a large-scale diagnostic database and optimize the tissue classification technique.

  13. Threatened Plants in China’s Sanjiang Plain: Hotspot Distributions and Gap Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baojia Du

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global biodiversity is markedly decreasing in response to climate change and human disturbance. Sanjiang Plain is recognized as a biodiversity hotspot in China due to its high forest and wetland coverage, but species are being lost at an unprecedented rate, induced by anthropogenic activities. Identifying hotspot distributions and conservation gaps of threatened species is of particular significance for enhancing the conservation of biodiversity. Specifically, we integrated the principles and methods of spatial hotspot inspection, geographic information system (GIS technology and spatial autocorrelation analysis along with fieldwork to determine the spatial distribution patterns and unprotected hotspots of vulnerable and endangered plants in Sanjiang Plain. A gap analysis of the conservation status of vulnerable and endangered plants was conducted. Our results indicate that six nationally-protected plants were not observed in nature reserves or were without any protection, while the protection rates were <10% for 10 other nationally-protected plants. Protected areas (PAs cover <5% of the distribution areas for 31 threatened plant species, while only five species are covered by national nature reserves (NNRs within >50% of the distribution areas. We found 30 hotspots with vulnerable and endangered plants in the study area, but the area covered by NNRs is very limited. Most of the hotspots were located in areas with a high-high aggregation of plant species. Therefore, it is necessary to expand the area of existing nature reserves, establish miniature protection plots and create new PAs and ecological corridors to link the existing PAs. Our findings can contribute to the design of a PA network for botanical conservation.

  14. Mind the gap in clinical trials: A participatory action analysis with citizen collaborators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Amy; Liew, Su May; Kirkpatrick, Jo; Price, Jazmin; Lopreto, Taylor; Nelken, Yasmin

    2017-02-01

    What are the strengths, gaps, expectations, and barriers to research engagement in clinical trials as communicated through social media? Clinical trials test treatments to provide reliable information for safety and effectiveness. Trials are building blocks in which what is learned in earlier research can be used to improve treatments, compare alternatives, and improve quality of life. For 20 years, the percentages of clinical trials volunteers have decreased whereas the costs of running clinical trials have multiplied. Participants enroll in trials to access latest treatments, to help others, and to advance science, but there is growing unrest. The priorities of those running the trials differ from those of the participants, and the roles for public research involvement lack clarity. Changes to bridge these gaps in the research culture are proposed through the use of participatory action research (PAR) in which stakeholders collaborate to improve research methodology, galvanize citizen participation, multiply health knowledge, problem-solve barriers to access, and explore the value of research volunteers as collaborators. PAR enabled the inclusion of citizens as full collaborators. Social media data were gathered for 120 days until saturation was reached. De-identified data were organized into a Strengths Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats framework and coded into themes for analysis. After the analysis, the authors prioritized potential solutions for improving research engagement. Strengths and opportunities remained constant through trial phases, disease burdens, and interventions. Threats included alienation, litigation, disparity, and shaming. Poor management and barriers to inclusion were identified as weaknesses. Opportunities included improving resource management and information quality. Barriers were minimized when relationships between staff and participants were inclusive, respectful, tolerant, and open to change. Participants' communications

  15. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  16. Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

    2011-06-01

    Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

  17. Decision Analysis on Survey and SOil Investigation Problem in Power Engineering Consultant

    OpenAIRE

    Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...

  18. A fault tree analysis strategy using binary decision diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reay, Karen A.; Andrews, John D.

    2002-01-01

    The use of binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in fault tree analysis provides both an accurate and efficient means of analysing a system. There is a problem, however, with the conversion process of the fault tree to the BDD. The variable ordering scheme chosen for the construction of the BDD has a crucial effect on its resulting size and previous research has failed to identify any scheme that is capable of producing BDDs for all fault trees. This paper proposes an analysis strategy aimed at increasing the likelihood of obtaining a BDD for any given fault tree, by ensuring the associated calculations are as efficient as possible. The method implements simplification techniques, which are applied to the fault tree to obtain a set of 'minimal' subtrees, equivalent to the original fault tree structure. BDDs are constructed for each, using ordering schemes most suited to their particular characteristics. Quantitative analysis is performed simultaneously on the set of BDDs to obtain the top event probability, the system unconditional failure intensity and the criticality of the basic events

  19. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  20. Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeshna Chatterjee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: 1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Settings and Design: Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. Methods and Material: It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients (n = 200 of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Statistical Analysis Used: Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%. Results: Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. Conclusions: The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

  1. Research on the psychological gap, personality and achievement of in-school youth based on regression analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhou

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Although our society is in rapid development, the psychological problems among in-school university students are increasingly obvious. According to this problem, this thesis applied the Psychological Gap Scale made by Caixia Ma with EPQ and AMS, and made random questionnaire survey among 400 students in a comprehensive university. The survey found out that the average scores of all psychological gap dimensions exceeded the critical value 3, showing most students in that university have psychological gap. Their personality stability, introversion and extroversion are all above the national norm level while their stubbornness is lower than it. Besides, the students’ motivation in pursuing success is stronger than their motivation in avoiding failure. In the last part, this thesis reached the conclusion that personality leaves a great impact in the students’ psychology through regression analysis model and study of the quantitative relations among personality, achievement and psychological gap.

  2. Clinical decision regret among critical care nurses: a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslanian-Engoren, Cynthia; Scott, Linda D

    2014-01-01

    Decision regret is a negative cognitive emotion associated with experiences of guilt and situations of interpersonal harm. These negative affective responses may contribute to emotional exhaustion in critical care nurses (CCNs), increased staff turnover rates and high medication error rates. Yet, little is known about clinical decision regret among CCNs or the conditions or situations (e.g., feeling sleepy) that may precipitate its occurrence. To examine decision regret among CCNs, with an emphasis on clinical decisions made when nurses were most sleepy. A content analytic approach was used to examine the narrative descriptions of clinical decisions by CCNs when sleepy. Six decision regret themes emerged that represented deviations in practice or performance behaviors that were attributed to fatigued CCNs. While 157 CCNs disclosed a clinical decision they made at work while sleepy, the prevalence may be underestimated and warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Analysis of serum anion gap and osmolal gap in diagnosis and prognosis of acute methanol poisoning: clinical study in 86 patients

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zakharov, S.; Navrátil, Tomáš; Pelclová, D.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 146, č. 5 (2015), s. 787-794 ISSN 0026-9247 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP208/12/1645 Institutional support: RVO:61388955 Keywords : serum anion gap * osmolal gap * acute methanol poisoning Subject RIV: CG - Electrochemistry Impact factor: 1.131, year: 2015

  4. Gap Analysis of Material Properties Data for Ferritic/Martensitic HT-9 Steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Neil R.; Serrano De Caro, Magdalena; Rodriguez, Edward A.

    2012-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), is supporting the development of an ASME Code Case for adoption of 12Cr-1Mo-VW ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steel, commonly known as HT-9, primarily for use in elevated temperature design of liquid-metal fast reactors (LMFR) and components. In 2011, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) nuclear engineering staff began assisting in the development of a small modular reactor (SMR) design concept, previously known as the Hyperion Module, now called the Gen4 Module. LANL staff immediately proposed HT-9 for the reactor vessel and components, as well as fuel clad and ducting, due to its superior thermal qualities. Although the ASME material Code Case, for adoption of HT-9 as an approved elevated temperature material for LMFR service, is the ultimate goal of this project, there are several key deliverables that must first be successfully accomplished. The most important key deliverable is the research, accumulation, and documentation of specific material parameters; physical, mechanical, and environmental, which becomes the basis for an ASME Code Case. Time-independent tensile and ductility data and time-dependent creep and creep-rupture behavior are some of the material properties required for a successful ASME Code case. Although this report provides a cursory review of the available data, a much more comprehensive study of open-source data would be necessary. This report serves three purposes: (a) provides a list of already existing material data information that could ultimately be made available to the ASME Code, (b) determines the HT-9 material properties data missing from available sources that would be required and (c) estimates the necessary material testing required to close the gap. Ultimately, the gap analysis demonstrates that certain material properties testing will be required to fulfill the necessary information package for an ASME Code Case.

  5. Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

  6. Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

    2015-01-01

    Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  7. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  8. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria

  9. Model for nuclear proliferation resistance analysis using decision making tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Won Il; Kim, Ho Dong; Yang, Myung Seung

    2003-06-01

    The nuclear proliferation risks of nuclear fuel cycles is being considered as one of the most important factors in assessing advanced and innovative nuclear systems in GEN IV and INPRO program. They have been trying to find out an appropriate and reasonable method to evaluate quantitatively several nuclear energy system alternatives. Any reasonable methodology for integrated analysis of the proliferation resistance, however, has not yet been come out at this time. In this study, several decision making methods, which have been used in the situation of multiple objectives, are described in order to see if those can be appropriately used for proliferation resistance evaluation. Especially, the AHP model for quantitatively evaluating proliferation resistance is dealt with in more detail. The theoretical principle of the method and some examples for the proliferation resistance problem are described. For more efficient applications, a simple computer program for the AHP model is developed, and the usage of the program is introduced here in detail. We hope that the program developed in this study could be useful for quantitative analysis of the proliferation resistance involving multiple conflict criteria.

  10. Overcoming the knowledge-behavior gap: The effect of evidence-based HPV vaccination leaflets on understanding, intention, and actual vaccination decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegwarth, O; Kurzenhäuser-Carstens, S; Gigerenzer, G

    2014-03-10

    Informed decision making requires transparent and evidence-based (=balanced) information on the potential benefit and harms of medical preventions. An analysis of German HPV vaccination leaflets revealed, however, that none met the standards of balanced risk communication. We surveyed a sample of 225 girl-parent pairs in a before-after design on the effects of balanced and unbalanced risk communication on participants' knowledge about cervical cancer and the HPV vaccination, their perceived risk, their intention to have the vaccine, and their actual vaccination decision. The balanced leaflet increased the number of participants who were correctly informed about cervical cancer and the HPV vaccine by 33 to 66 absolute percentage points. In contrast, the unbalanced leaflet decreased the number of participants who were correctly informed about these facts by 0 to 18 absolute percentage points. Whereas the actual uptake of the HPV vaccination 14 months after the initial study did not differ between the two groups (22% balanced leaflet vs. 23% unbalanced leaflet; p=.93, r=.01), the originally stated intention to have the vaccine reliably predicted the actual vaccination decision for the balanced leaflet group only (concordance between intention and actual uptake: 97% in the balanced leaflet group, rs=.92, p=.00; 60% in the unbalanced leaflet group, rs=.37, p=.08). In contrast to a unbalanced leaflet, a balanced leaflet increased people's knowledge of the HPV vaccination, improved perceived risk judgments, and led to an actual vaccination uptake, which first was robustly predicted by people's intention and second did not differ from the uptake in the unbalanced leaflet group. These findings suggest that balanced reporting about HPV vaccination increases informed decisions about whether to be vaccinated and does not undermine actual uptake. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  12. Needs-based gap analysis for service transformation in the Eastern Cape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Sukeri

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Part I of this research article presents a needs-based analysis for the management of schizophrenia, bipolar mood disorder and major depression for the Eastern Cape (EC Province, South Africa. This part of the research paper focuses on quantifying human resources and bed needs for these three severe mental illnesses. Human resource expenditure is calculated for nursing staff at acute, ambulatory and medium-to-long-stay services. A further objective was to conduct a gap analysis for human resources and beds for the EC in order to assist mental health planners in the commissioning of services.  Methods. Data from previous research conducted in the province, and international and national epidemiological studies were utilised to quantify the requirements for human resources (psychiatrists, medical officers/registrars, psychologists, nurses, occupational therapists and social workers and beds for acute, medium-to-long-stay and ambulatory services at provincial and regional levels, to provide mental healthcare. The authors focused on three of the eight priority conditions set by the World Health Organization. A target coverage rate of 80% was used in all calculations. A gap analysis was conducted to demonstrate deficits and excesses, utilising available data on human resources and beds available in the province. Results. The results showed that the districts of Alfred Nzo and Ukhahlamba have no human resources or beds for the provision of mental health services. The province has a deficit of 23 psychiatrists and 243 nurses trained in psychiatry, and an oversupply of 486 other nurses. The results also clearly demonstrated an inequitable distribution of resources in the province.  Conclusions. This is the first study that has provided detailed estimates of human resource and bed deficits in the EC. The study demonstrates that the areas of greatest need in terms of bed and human resource requirements are in the eastern regions of the

  13. Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

  14. Optimal soil venting design using Bayesian Decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kaluarachchi, J. J.; Wijedasa, A. H.

    1994-01-01

    Remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated sites can be costly and the design process becomes complex in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Classical decision theory related to remediation design requires the parameter uncertainties to be stipulated in terms of statistical estimates based on site observations. In the absence of detailed data on parameter uncertainty, classical decision theory provides little contribution in designing a risk-based optimal design strategy. Bayesian decision th...

  15. Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

  16. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  17. An analysis of signal characteristics due to coil-gap variation of ECT bobbin probe for steam generation tube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Min Woo; Cho, Chan Hee; Jee, Dong Hyun; Jung, Jee Hong; Lee, Hee Jong

    2006-01-01

    The bobbin probe technique is basically one of the important ECT methods for the steam generator tube integrity assesment that is practiced during each plant outage. The bobbin probe is one of the essential components which consist of the whole ECT examination system, and provides us a decisive data for the evaluation of tube integrity in compliance with acceptance criteria described in specific procedures. The selection of examination probe is especially important because the quality of acquired ECT data is determined by the probe design characteristics, geometry and operation frequencies, and has an important effect on examination results. In this study, the relationship between electric characteristic changes and differential coil gap variation has been investigated to optimize the ECT signal characteristics of the bobbin probe. With the results from this study, we have elucidated that the optimum coil gap is 1.2 - 1.6 mm that give the best result for O.D. volumetric defects in ASME calibration standards.

  18. Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Sudeshna; Ray, Krishnangshu; Das, Anup Kumar

    2016-01-01

    1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients ( n = 200) of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%). Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

  19. An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

    2016-05-01

    Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed.

  20. Bottleneck analysis at district level to illustrate gaps within the district health system in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiwanuka Henriksson, Dorcus; Fredriksson, Mio; Waiswa, Peter; Selling, Katarina; Swartling Peterson, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Poor quality of care and access to effective and affordable interventions have been attributed to constraints and bottlenecks within and outside the health system. However, there is limited understanding of health system barriers to utilization and delivery of appropriate, high-impact, and cost-effective interventions at the point of service delivery in districts and sub-districts in low-income countries. In this study we illustrate the use of the bottleneck analysis approach, which could be used to identify bottlenecks in service delivery within the district health system. Methods: A modified Tanahashi model with six determinants for effective coverage was used to determine bottlenecks in service provision for maternal and newborn care. The following interventions provided during antenatal care were used as tracer interventions: use of iron and folic acid, intermittent presumptive treatment for malaria, HIV counseling and testing, and syphilis testing. Data from cross-sectional household and health facility surveys in Mayuge and Namayingo districts in Uganda were used in this study. Results: Effective coverage and human resource gaps were identified as the biggest bottlenecks in both districts, with coverage ranging from 0% to 66% for effective coverage and from 46% to 58% for availability of health facility staff. Our findings revealed a similar pattern in bottlenecks in both districts for particular interventions although the districts are functionally independent. Conclusion: The modified Tanahashi model is an analysis tool that can be used to identify bottlenecks to effective coverage within the district health system, for instance, the effective coverage for maternal and newborn care interventions. However, the analysis is highly dependent on the availability of data to populate all six determinants and could benefit from further validation analysis for the causes of bottlenecks identified. PMID:28581379

  1. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  2. Proportional Reasoning and Related Concepts: Analysis of Gaps and Understandings of Middle Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojose, Bobby

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated proportional reasoning and the related concepts of decimal, percent, and ratio. In particular, the research focused on analyzing the gaps and understandings that grades 6, 7, and 8 students have and advanced factors for such gaps and understandings. The study employed a mixed method approach in which quantitative data was…

  3. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    .... In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives...

  5. Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

    2013-01-01

    Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

  6. Mind the Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, Terry; Savage, Erica; Adams, Katie; Wittie, Michael; Boone, Edna; Hayden, Andrew; Barnes, Janey; Hettinger, Zach; Gettinger, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Summary Objective Decisions made during electronic health record (EHR) implementations profoundly affect usability and safety. This study aims to identify gaps between the current literature and key stakeholders’ perceptions of usability and safety practices and the challenges encountered during the implementation of EHRs. Materials and Methods Two approaches were used: a literature review and interviews with key stakeholders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify usability and safety challenges and best practices during implementation. A total of 55 articles were reviewed through searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. We used a qualitative approach to identify key stakeholders’ perceptions; semi-structured interviews were conducted with a diverse set of health IT stakeholders to understand their current practices and challenges related to usability during implementation. We used a grounded theory approach: data were coded, sorted, and emerging themes were identified. Conclusions from both sources of data were compared to identify areas of misalignment. Results We identified six emerging themes from the literature and stakeholder interviews: cost and resources, risk assessment, governance and consensus building, customization, clinical work-flow and usability testing, and training. Across these themes, there were misalignments between the literature and stakeholder perspectives, indicating major gaps. Discussion Major gaps identified from each of six emerging themes are discussed as critical areas for future research, opportunities for new stakeholder initiatives, and opportunities to better disseminate resources to improve the implementation of EHRs. Conclusion Our analysis identified practices and challenges across six different emerging themes, illustrated important gaps, and results suggest critical areas for future research and dissemination to improve EHR implementation. PMID:27847961

  7. ["Wise be aware of your sayings"--about gaps between epidemiological data base, experimental results and decision making in health administration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefer, Elioz

    2005-12-01

    When scientific researches are being published one should consider carefully the different possible influences which may change the results. These influences may be of two kinds: Non-Causal explanations, and Casual explanations. Researchers may arrive at their results and not have considered all the causative explanations. Occams's Razor is the basic rule by which most reasonable explanations are chosen. A statistical result and an appropriate simple theory to explain it, is not sufficient to prove causative effect. In many cases though, the media and public tend to accept a statistically significant result as if it was a proven cause and effect relation. There are several conditional demands called Bradford Hill criteria of which epidemiological data and results are only one, the more results arrived by using the Bradford Hill criteria, the better chances exist that the examined variable is the cause for the effect. Finally, there is a gap between a proven causal factor for disease or the harmful effects of treatment and a "clear cut" health policy. There are several intermediate powerful influences which are involved in the process of stating a new health policy. These influences include among others, the involvement of decision makers, political influences and civil service professionals. As an example three different issues of a well proven clinical research will be presented. The research of Rofecoxib = "Vioxx" cardiac effects, the research of Hormonal Replacement Treatment health effects on post menopausal women and the last of Health risks presented by mobile phone use. Although the results of those researches were proven to be statistically significant, Health Policy in each case is different and less clear. Health Policy is not based solely on figures and statistical results, but rather on a far wider and more complex influences and judgment.

  8. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2015-11-15

    Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  9. Vacation portfolio decisions: analysis using a Bayesian belief network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyse the extent to which vacation portfolio decisions are influenced by socio-demographic characteristics. A vacation portfolio involves interdependent decisions related to the facets that make the vacation trip, including transport mode, accommodation, destination,

  10. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-07-04

    Jul 4, 2005 ... Political factor: Tourism in the city (Cr4). Each of these was measured according to the points of view of the decision makers. Some of these were difficult to measure, and this is one of the reasons for using multicriteria decision aid. The use of this methodology may be helpful in preserving all the information ...

  11. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work is e...

  12. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  13. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  14. Analysis and decision making method for radiation accident situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.; Hamard, J.

    1975-01-01

    Decisions on the application of countermeasures for accident situations must take into account the cost of these countermeasures and the feasibility of reducing the exposure. A contribution to the solution of this problem, rested on the application of the principle of choice rationalization and optimization of decision making method, is presented [fr

  15. Multiple criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Duenas, Alejandra

    2012-12-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been suggested by some researchers as a method to capture the benefits beyond quality adjusted life-years in a transparent and consistent manner. The objectives of this article were to analyze the possible application of MCDA approaches in health technology assessment and to describe their relative advantages and disadvantages. This article begins with an introduction to the most common types of MCDA models and a critical review of state-of-the-art methods for incorporating multiple criteria in health technology assessment. An overview of MCDA is provided and is compared against the current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence health technology appraisal process. A generic MCDA modeling approach is described, and the different MCDA modeling approaches are applied to a hypothetical case study. A comparison of the different MCDA approaches is provided, and the generic issues that need consideration before the application of MCDA in health technology assessment are examined. There are general practical issues that might arise from using an MCDA approach, and it is suggested that appropriate care be taken to ensure the success of MCDA techniques in the appraisal process. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  17. Identifying a preservation zone using multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farashi, A.; Naderi, M.; Parvian, N.

    2016-07-01

    Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine. (Author)

  18. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Pierru, A.

    2005-01-01

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  19. Microseismic Monitoring Design Optimization Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovaleva, Y.; Tamimi, N.; Ostadhassan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracture treatments of unconventional reservoirs is a widely used method in the oil and gas industry. Sometimes, the quality of the acquired microseismic data is poor. One of the reasons for poor data quality is poor survey design. We attempt to provide a comprehensive and thorough workflow, using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), to optimize planning micriseismic monitoring. So far, microseismic monitoring has been used extensively as a powerful tool for determining fracture parameters that affect the influx of formation fluids into the wellbore. The factors that affect the quality of microseismic data and their final results include average distance between microseismic events and receivers, complexity of the recorded wavefield, signal-to-noise ratio, data aperture, etc. These criteria often conflict with each other. In a typical microseismic monitoring, those factors should be considered to choose the best monitoring well(s), optimum number of required geophones, and their depth. We use MDCA to address these design challenges and develop a method that offers an optimized design out of all possible combinations to produce the best data acquisition results. We believe that this will be the first research to include the above-mentioned factors in a 3D model. Such a tool would assist companies and practicing engineers in choosing the best design parameters for future microseismic projects.

  20. Knowledge, attitude and practice GAP in family planning usage: an analysis of selected cities of Uttar Pradesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anjali; Singh, K K; Verma, Prashant

    2016-01-01

    The GAP between the knowledge of contraception and its actual practice is well recognized in the literature of family welfare studies. The present study assessed the relation between the level of knowledge and practice of contraception among the women and sought to explore the reasons behind the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice - GAP (KAP GAP) regarding contraceptive users in six cities of Uttar Pradesh. Present analysis based on 17,643 currently married women aged 15 to 49. A Bivariate analysis ( χ 2 test) and a multivariable logistic regression were performed for the study. The highest percentages of respondents (women) were in the age group 35-49 (40-45 %) in all the districts considered. Knowledge of contraceptives was almost universal; tubal ligation and pill were the commonly known methods. Information about the contraceptive methods was mostly obtained through the husband. In the present study, there was a highly significant association ( p  GAP for all six cities. Health concern issues in all the districts were the most prominent reason for not using contraception. There differences in the socioeconomic and demographic factors exist, which lead to KAP GAP in the family planning (FP) usages. Therefore, in designing effective family planning programme, there is a need to understand the various factors which influence the practice of contraception.

  1. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  2. Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

    2009-09-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. Determinants and gaps in preventive care for Indigenous Australians: a cross sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Stewart Bailie

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPotentially preventable chronic diseases are the greatest contributor to the health gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and non-Indigenous Australians. Preventive care is important for earlier detection and control of chronic disease, and a number of recent policy initiatives have aimed to enhance delivery of preventive care. We examined documented delivery of recommended preventive services for Indigenous peoples across Australia, and investigated the influence of health center and client level factors on adherence to best practice guidelines. MethodsClinical audit data from 2012-2014 for 3623 well adult clients (aged 15-54 of 101 health centers from four Australian states and territories were analyzed to determine adherence to delivery of 26 recommended preventive services classified into five different modes of care on the basis of the way in which they are delivered (eg. basic measurement; laboratory tests and imaging; assessment and brief interventions, eye, ear and oral checks; follow-up of abnormal findings. Summary statistics were used to describe the delivery of each service item across jurisdictions. Multilevel regression models were used to quantify the variation in service delivery attributable to health center and client level factors and to identify factors associated with higher quality care.ResultsDelivery of recommended preventive care varied widely between service items, with good delivery of most basic measurements but poor follow-up of abnormal findings. Health center characteristics were associated with most variation. Higher quality care was associated with Northern Territory location, urban services and smaller service population size. Client factors associated with higher quality care included age between 25-34 years, female sex and more regular attendance. ConclusionsWide variation in documented preventive care delivery, poor follow-up of abnormal findings, and system factors that

  4. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  5. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2005-01-01

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  6. Designing a Qualitative Data Collection Strategy (QDCS) for Africa - Phase 1: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader Dominick E...Strategy (QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader...Africa Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa June 2012 Authors: Dr. Ashley Bybee , Project Lead Dr

  7. Modeling and analysis of mover gaps in tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuesong LUO

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM has merits of high efficiency and excellent dynamic capability. To enhance the thrust performance, quasi-Halbach permanent magnet (PM arrays are arranged on its mover in the application of a linear electro-hydrostatic actuator in more electric aircraft. The arrays are assembled by several individual segments, which lead to gaps between them inevitably. To investigate the effects of the gaps on the radial magnetic flux density and the machine thrust in this paper, an analytical model is built considering both axial and radial gaps. The model is validated by finite element simulations and experimental results. Distributions of the magnetic flux are described in condition of different sizes of radial and axial gaps. Besides, the output force is also discussed in normal and end windings. Finally, the model has demonstrated that both kinds of gaps have a negative effect on the thrust, and the linear motor is more sensitive to radial ones. Keywords: Air-gap flux density, Linear motor, Mover gaps, Quasi-Halbach array, Thrust output, Tubular moving-magnet linear oscillating motor (TMMLOM

  8. Literacy skills gaps: A cross-level analysis on international and intergenerational variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suehye

    2018-02-01

    The global agenda for sustainable development has centred lifelong learning on UNESCO's Education 2030 Framework for Action. The study described in this article aimed to examine international and intergenerational variations in literacy skills gaps within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this purpose, the author examined the trend of literacy gaps in different countries using multilevel and multisource data from the OECD's Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning survey data from the third edition of the Global Report on Adult Learning and Education (GRALE III). In this article, particular attention is paid to exploring the specific effects of education systems on literacy skills gaps among different age groups. Key findings of this study indicate substantial intergenerational literacy gaps within countries as well as different patterns of literacy gaps across countries. Young generations generally outscore older adults in literacy skills, but feature bigger gaps when examined by gender and social origin. In addition, this study finds an interesting tendency for young generations to benefit from a system of Recognition, Validation and Accreditation (RVA) in closing literacy gaps by formal schooling at country level. This implies the potential of an RVA system for tackling educational inequality in initial schooling. The article concludes with suggestions for integrating literacy skills as a foundation of lifelong learning into national RVA frameworks and mechanisms at system level.

  9. Parameter estimation and determinability analysis applied to Drosophila gap gene circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeger Johannes

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical modeling of real-life processes often requires the estimation of unknown parameters. Once the parameters are found by means of optimization, it is important to assess the quality of the parameter estimates, especially if parameter values are used to draw biological conclusions from the model. Results In this paper we describe how the quality of parameter estimates can be analyzed. We apply our methodology to assess parameter determinability for gene circuit models of the gap gene network in early Drosophila embryos. Conclusion Our analysis shows that none of the parameters of the considered model can be determined individually with reasonable accuracy due to correlations between parameters. Therefore, the model cannot be used as a tool to infer quantitative regulatory weights. On the other hand, our results show that it is still possible to draw reliable qualitative conclusions on the regulatory topology of the gene network. Moreover, it improves previous analyses of the same model by allowing us to identify those interactions for which qualitative conclusions are reliable, and those for which they are ambiguous.

  10. Service transformation plans in the Eastern Cape informed by a needs-based gap analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Sukeri

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Part I of this research paper presented a needs and gap analysis for the management of schizophrenia, bipolar mood disorder and major depression for the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. It identified deficits and inequitable distribution of human resources and beds in the province. In this article, Part II, the authors propose a plan for public sector mental health services to address the human resource needs in the poorer eastern regions of the province. The plan focuses on human resource training and development.  Methods. Evidence-based data on staff development in mental health from low-middle income countries were utilised to develop strategies to increase staff capacity to address unmet need. A financing model with a poverty index was developed to sustain a needs-based plan. Databases searched included Pubmed, Medline, Google and Google Scholar. The key words used included: mental health, mental health training, mental health resources, mental health in low-middle-income countries, mental health policy and plans, mental health needs- based planning, primary healthcare, primary mental healthcare, mental health financing. In addition the websites of the World Health Organization and the World Psychiatric Association were searched for similar resources. Conclusions. It is feasible, with careful attention to planning and implementation of evidence-based tools, to improve public mental health service delivery in this province. Sustained political will and professional commitment will ensure successful delivery of mental health services in a resource-limited province.

  11. Gap analysis of Mycoplasma bovis disease, diagnosis and control: An aid to identify future development requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calcutt, M J; Lysnyansky, I; Sachse, K; Fox, L K; Nicholas, R A J; Ayling, R D

    2018-05-01

    There is a worldwide problem of disease caused by Mycoplasma (M.) bovis in cattle; it has a significant detrimental economic and animal welfare impact on cattle rearing. Infection can manifest as a plethora of clinical signs including mastitis, pneumonia, arthritis, keratoconjunctivitis, otitis media and genital disorders that may result in infertility and abortion. Current diagnosis and control information are reviewed and analysed to identify gaps in knowledge of the causative organism in respect of the disease pathology, diagnosis and control methods. The main considerations are as follows: no vaccines are commercially available; antimicrobial resistance is increasing; diagnostic and antimicrobial sensitivity testing needs to be improved; and a pen-side test would facilitate more rapid diagnosis and implementation of treatment with antimicrobials. More data on host susceptibility, stress factors, immune response and infectious dose levels are required. The impact of asymptomatic carriers, M. bovis survival in the environment and the role of wildlife in transmitting the disease also needs investigation. To facilitate development of vaccines, further analysis of more M. bovis genomes, its pathogenic mechanisms, including variable surface proteins, is required, along with reproducible disease models. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Exergy Analysis of Air-Gap Membrane Distillation Systems for Water Purification Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Woldemariam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Exergy analyses are essential tools for the performance evaluation of water desalination and other separation systems, including those featuring membrane distillation (MD. One of the challenges in the commercialization of MD technologies is its substantial heat demand, especially for large scale applications. Identifying such heat flows in the system plays a crucial role in pinpointing the heat loss and thermal integration potential by the help of exergy analysis. This study presents an exergetic evaluation of air-gap membrane distillation (AGMD systems at a laboratory and pilot scale. A series of experiments were conducted to obtain thermodynamic data for the water streams included in the calculations. Exergy efficiency and destruction for two different types of flat-plate AGMD were analyzed for a range of feed and coolant temperatures. The bench scale AGMD system incorporating condensation plate with more favorable heat conductivity contributed to improved performance parameters including permeate flux, specific heat demand, and exergy efficiency. For both types of AGMD systems, the contributions of the major components involved in exergy destruction were identified. The result suggested that the MD modules caused the highest fraction of destructions followed by re-concentrating tanks.

  13. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

  14. Cloning, sequencing and variability analysis of the gap gene from Mycoplasma hominis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mygind, Tina; Jacobsen, Iben Søgaard; Melkova, Renata

    2000-01-01

    The gap gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). The gene was cloned and sequenced from the Mycoplasma hominis type strain PG21(T). The intraspecies variability was investigated by inspection of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns...... after polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the gap gene from 15 strains and furthermore by sequencing of part of the gene in eight strains. The M. hominis gap gene was found to vary more than the Escherichia coli counterpart, but the variation at nucleotide level gave rise to only a few...

  15. Technography and Design-Actuality Gap-Analysis of Internet Computer Technologies-Assisted Education: Western Expectations and Global Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh-Spencer, Heather; Jerbi, Moja

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we provide a design-actuality gap-analysis of the internet infrastructure that exists in developing nations and nations in the global South with the deployed internet computer technologies (ICT)-assisted programs that are designed to use internet infrastructure to provide educational opportunities. Programs that specifically…

  16. Prosthetic restoration in the single-tooth gap: patient preferences and analysis of the WTP index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusti, Davide; Augusti, Gabriele; Re, Dino

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the preference of a patients' population, according to the index of willingness to pay (WTP), against two treatments to restore a single-tooth gap: the implant-supported crown (ISC) and the 3-unit fixed partial denture prosthesis (FPDP) on natural teeth. Willingness to pay values were recorded on 107 subjects by asking the WTP from a starting bid of €2000 modifiable through monetary increases or decreases (€100). Data were collected through an individually delivered questionnaire. The characteristics of the population and choices made, the median values and WTP associations with socio-demographic parameters (Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests), correlations between variables (chi-square test in contingency tables) and significant parameters for predicting WTP values obtained in a multiple linear regression model were revealed. The 64% of patients expressed a preference for ISC, while the remaining 36% of the population chose the FPDP. The current therapeutic choice and those carried out in the past were generally in agreement (>70% of cases, P = 0.0001); a relationship was discovered between the anterior and posterior area to the same method of rehabilitation (101 of 107 cases, 94.4%). The WTP median values for ISC were of €3000 and of €2500 in the anterior and posterior areas, respectively. The smallest amount of money has been allocated for FPDP in posterior region (median of €1500). The "importance of oral care" for the patient was a significant predictor, in the regression model analysis, for the estimation of both anterior (P = 0.0003) and posterior (P WTP values. The "previous therapy" variable reached and was just close to significance in anterior (P = 0.0367) and posterior (P = 0.0511) analyses, respectively. Within the limitations of this study, most of the population (64%) surveyed indicated the ISC as a therapeutic solution for the replacement of a single missing tooth, showing a higher

  17. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-04-24

    The areas of machine learning, data mining, and knowledge representation have many different formats used to represent information. Decision rules, amongst these formats, are the most expressive and easily-understood by humans. In this thesis, we use dynamic programming to design decision rules and analyze them. The use of dynamic programming allows us to work with decision rules in ways that were previously only possible for brute force methods. Our algorithms allow us to describe the set of all rules for a given decision table. Further, we can perform multi-stage optimization by repeatedly reducing this set to only contain rules that are optimal with respect to selected criteria. One way that we apply this study is to generate small systems with short rules by simulating a greedy algorithm for the set cover problem. We also compare maximum path lengths (depth) of deterministic and non-deterministic decision trees (a non-deterministic decision tree is effectively a complete system of decision rules) with regards to Boolean functions. Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules (rules that are simultaneously optimal with regards to multiple criteria). We also utilize Pareto optimal points to compare and rate greedy heuristics with regards to two criteria at once. Another application of Pareto optimal points is the study of trade-offs between cost and uncertainty which allows us to find reasonable systems of decision rules that strike a balance between length and accuracy.

  18. Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

    2017-11-01

    Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

  19. 6.2 Terrain Gap Identification and Analysis for Assured Mobility

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Blundell, S. B; Guthrie, Verner; Simental, Edmundo

    2004-01-01

    .... We define terrain gaps as consisting of such anomalies, within the context of military maneuver, having characteristic dimensions on the order of ten meters or less and minimum slope of approximately...

  20. Balancing Information Analysis and Decision Value: A Model to Exploit the Decision Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    technical intelli- gence e.g. signals and sensors (SIGINT and MASINT), imagery (!MINT), as well and human and open source intelligence (HUMINT and OSINT ...Clark 2006). The ability to capture large amounts of da- ta and the plenitude of modem intelligence information sources provides a rich cache of...many tech- niques for managing information collected and derived from these sources , the exploitation of intelligence assets for decision-making

  1. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-01-01

    Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules

  2. Risk Analysis: Its Application to Argumentation and Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follert, Vincent

    1981-01-01

    Notes that utility theory has enjoyed renewed interest among debate critics and other decision makers. Some of the problems with its application are identified and guidelines for debaters are suggested. (PD)

  3. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  4. Investigating Gender Wage Gap in Employment: A Microeconometric Type-Analysis for Cameroon

    OpenAIRE

    Mbratana, Taoufiki; Kenne Fotié, Andrée

    2017-01-01

    Using the 2007 Cameroon Household Consumption Survey, we study gender wage disparity in pay-employment and self-employment. The main question considered in this paper is to know why women pay-employment and self-employment wages are relatively low. More generally, what is the underlying factors generating and explained wage gap between men and women householder in employment? To answer to our question, firstly, we use the Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) Decomposition to explain wage gap. Afterward, we pe...

  5. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision problems. New quantitative models are developed for these decision problems using a range of mathematical techniques, thereby contributing to the further development of purchasing theory and its appliati...

  6. Bellman's GAP--a language and compiler for dynamic programming in sequence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauthoff, Georg; Möhl, Mathias; Janssen, Stefan; Giegerich, Robert

    2013-03-01

    Dynamic programming is ubiquitous in bioinformatics. Developing and implementing non-trivial dynamic programming algorithms is often error prone and tedious. Bellman's GAP is a new programming system, designed to ease the development of bioinformatics tools based on the dynamic programming technique. In Bellman's GAP, dynamic programming algorithms are described in a declarative style by tree grammars, evaluation algebras and products formed thereof. This bypasses the design of explicit dynamic programming recurrences and yields programs that are free of subscript errors, modular and easy to modify. The declarative modules are compiled into C++ code that is competitive to carefully hand-crafted implementations. This article introduces the Bellman's GAP system and its language, GAP-L. It then demonstrates the ease of development and the degree of re-use by creating variants of two common bioinformatics algorithms. Finally, it evaluates Bellman's GAP as an implementation platform of 'real-world' bioinformatics tools. Bellman's GAP is available under GPL license from http://bibiserv.cebitec.uni-bielefeld.de/bellmansgap. This Web site includes a repository of re-usable modules for RNA folding based on thermodynamics.

  7. Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

  8. 75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The..., organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's...

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  10. The JASMIN Analysis Platform - bridging the gap between traditional climate data practicies and data-centric analysis paradigms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascoe, Stephen; Iwi, Alan; kershaw, philip; Stephens, Ag; Lawrence, Bryan

    2014-05-01

    gap through a veriety of higher-level tools for parallelisation and job scheduling such as IPython-parallel and MPI support for interactive analysis languages. We find that enabling even simple parallelisation of workflows, together with the state of the art I/O performance of JASMIN storage, provides many users with the large increases in efficiency they need to scale their analyses to conteporary data volumes and tackly new, previously inaccessible, problems.

  11. Filling gaps in PPAR-alpha signaling through comparative nutrigenomics analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radonjic Marijana

    2009-12-01

    available expression data, exploiting the power of in silico analysis filtered by evolutionary conservation. The analysis enabled us to indicate potential gene candidates that could fill in the gaps with regards to the signalling of PPARα and, moreover, the non-random localization of the differentially expressed genes in the genome, suggest that epigenetic mechanisms are of importance in the regulation of the transcription operated by PPARα.

  12. A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castanho, Camila de Toledo; Lortie, Christopher J; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Prado, Paulo Inácio

    2015-01-01

    Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or 'stressful' environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%). Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping the outcome of net

  13. A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila de Toledo Castanho

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or ‘stressful’ environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%. Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping

  14. Minding the gap between logic and intuition: an interpretative approach to ethical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirklin, D

    2007-07-01

    In an attempt to be rational and objective, and, possibly, to avoid the charge of moral relativism, ethicists seek to categorise and characterise ethical dilemmas. This approach is intended to minimise the effect of the confusing individuality of the context within which ethically challenging problems exist. Despite and I argue partly as a result of this attempt to be rational and objective, even when the logic of the argument is accepted--for example, by healthcare professionals--those same professionals might well respond by stating that the conclusions are unacceptable to them. In this paper, I argue that an interpretative approach to ethical analysis, involving an examination of the ways in which ethical arguments are constructed and shared, can help ethicists to understand the origins of this gap between logic and intuition. I suggest that an argument will be persuasive either if the values underpinning the proposed argument accord with the reader's values and worldview, or if the argument succeeds in persuading the reader to alter these. A failure either to appreciate or to acknowledge those things that give meaning to the lives of all the interested parties will make this objective far harder, if not impossible, to achieve. If, as a consequence, the narratives ethicists use to make their arguments seem to be about people living in different circumstances, and faced with different choices and challenges, from those the readers or listeners consider important or have to face in their own lives, then the argument is unlikely to seem either relevant or applicable to those people. The conclusion offered by the ethicist will be, for that individual, counterintuitive. Abortion, euthanasia and cadaveric organ donation are used as examples to support my argument.

  15. Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Shaaban

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Future electricity planning necessitates a thorough multi-faceted analysis of the available technologies in order to secure the energy supply for coming generations. To cope with worldwide concerns over sustainable development and meet the growing demands of electricity we assess the future potential technologies in Egypt through covering their technical, economic, environmental and social aspects. In this study we fill the gap of a lacking sustainability assessment of energy systems in Egypt where most of the studies focus mainly on the economic and technical aspects of planning future installation of power plants in Egypt. Furthermore, we include the stakeholder preferences of the indicators in the energy sector into our assessment. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis through single dimension assessment scenarios of the technologies as well as a sustainable scenario with equal preferences of all dimensions of the sustainability. We employ two multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methodologies: the analytical hierarchy process for weighing the assessment criteria, and the weighted sum method for generating a general integrated sustainability index for each technology. The study investigates seven technologies: coal, natural gas, wind, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear. The results reveal a perfect matching between the ranking of the technologies by the stakeholders and the sustainable scenario showing the highest ranking for natural gas and the lowest for nuclear and coal. There is a strong potential for renewable energy technologies to invade the electricity market in Egypt where they achieve the second ranking after natural gas. The Monte-Carlo approach gives photovoltaics a higher ranking over concentrated solar power as compared to the sample data ranking. The study concludes the importance of a multi-dimensional evaluation of the technologies while considering the preferences of the stakeholders in

  16. Proteome analysis of a Lactococcus lactis strain overexpressing gapA suggests that the gene product is an auxiliary glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willemoes, Martin; Kilstrup, Mogens; Roepstorff, P.

    2002-01-01

    revealed two neighbouring protein spots, GapBI and GapBII, with amino terminal sequences identical to the product of gapA from the L. lactis subspecies cremoris strain LM0230 and that of the two IL1403 sequences. In order to assign the two protein spots to their respective genes we constructed an L. lactis...... was specific for NAD. No NADP dependent activity was detected. Proteome analysis of the gapA overexpressing strain revealed two new protein spots, GapAI and GapAII, not previously detected in proteome analysis of MG1363. Results from mass spectrometry analysis of GapA and GapB and comparison with the deduced......The sequence of the genome from the Lactococcus lactis subspecies lactis strain IL1403 shows the presence of two reading frames, gapA and gapB, putatively encoding glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). Previous proteomic analysis of the L. lactis subspecies cremoris strain MG1363 has...

  17. A Sub-channel Analysis of a VHTR Fuel Block with Tin Gap-Filler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Chung Ho; Kim, Yong Hee; Yi, Yong Sun; Kim, Hong Pyo

    2005-01-01

    In the Nuclear Hydrogen Development and Demonstration (NHDD) project, two types of VHTRs (Very High Temperature Reactors), prismatic or pebble bed, are under investigation as the nuclear heat source for hydrogen production. In general, the targeted coolant outlet temperature of VHTR is 950∼1000 .deg. C and the maximum allowable fuel temperature is 1250 .deg. C during the normal operation. In the case of the prismatic reactor (PMR), conventional fuel designs result in a small margin in the maximum fuel temperature. This is one of the biggest demerits of the prismatic type In this paper, a technique of lowering the maximum fuel temperature is suggested. The PMR fuel assembly is comprised of many coolant holes and fuel channels. Cylindrical fuel compacts are stacked inside the fuel channel. Consequently, there should be a physical gap between the fuel compact and graphite block, which is filled with the He gas in the conventional design. The heat transfer coefficient of the He gap is very poor, and this increases the fuel temperature substantially. In the proposed design measure, the gap is filled with a liquid metal, tin (Sn) that has a very high thermal conductivity. The effects of tin in the gap with gap distance variation in the viewpoint of thermal hydraulics are quantitatively discussed. Also, the effects of the variations of the axial power distribution are discussed

  18. Does it get better? A quasi-cohort analysis of sexual minority wage gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Sean

    2015-11-01

    With few exceptions, it has been found that gay men earn less and lesbians earn more than their heterosexual counterparts. Most of the current literature has used single cross-sectional datasets to test possible sources of these wage differentials. This study adds to this literature by presenting a theoretical framework, grounded in gender theory, to explore: (a) whether sexual minority wage gaps have attenuated over the last decade, (b) whether wage gaps vary by age group, and (c) if wage gaps vary with duration in the labor market. Using Canadian census and survey data, this study finds no evidence that wage gaps have attenuated for gay men and only small reductions for lesbians and heterosexual women, relative to heterosexual men. Wage gaps are larger for younger gay men than for older gay men, which may suggest a "coming out penalty". The lesbian wage premium, vis-á-vis heterosexual women, does not appear at initial labor market entry; rather it develops with duration in the labour market. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra (DITS): 2nd post-mortem analysis campaign and fuel retention in the gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dittmar, T.; Tsitrone, E.; Pegourie, B.; Cadez, I.; Pelicon, P.; Gauthier, E.; Languille, P.; Likonen, J.; Litnovsky, A.; Markelj, S.; Martin, C.; Mayer, M.; Pascal, J.-Y.; Pardanaud, C.; Philipps, V.; Roth, J.; Roubin, P.; Vavpetic, P.

    2011-01-01

    A dedicated study on fuel retention has been launched in Tore Supra, which includes a D wall-loading campaign and the dismantling of the main limiter (Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra, DITS project). This paper presents new results from a second post-mortem analysis campaign on 40 tiles with special emphasis on the D retention in the gaps. SIMS analysis reveals that only 1/3 of the thickness of deposits in the plasma shadowed zones are due to the DITS wall-loading campaign. As pre-DITS deposits contain less D than DITS deposits, the contribution of DITS to the D inventory is about 30-50%. The new estimate for the total amount of D retained in the Tore Supra limiter is 1.7 x 10 24 atoms, close to the previous estimate, with the gap surfaces contributing about 33%. NRA measurements show a stepped decrease of D along the gap with strong asymmetries between different gap orientations.

  20. Immunizing Children: A Qualitative Analysis of Future Parental Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeleta, Hannah C; Beasley, Lana O; Ridings, Leigh E; Smith, Tyler J; Shields, Jennifer D

    2017-10-01

    Vaccinations are considered one of public health's greatest accomplishments. Despite evidence for vaccine effectiveness, uptake levels are still well below the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's guidelines. The immunization decision-making process for parents is complex and depends on factors associated with knowledge and experiences. This qualitative study sought to expand on a previous decision-making model for immunizations by examining how individuals receive vaccination information, determining the role of experience in influencing decisions, and understanding how young adults might locate vaccination information in the future. Three focus groups were conducted with 29 undergraduate students without children. Results suggest that young adults exhibit an awareness of information regarding vaccine use and effectiveness, value doctor opinions and recommendations, and desire more robust research on vaccinations. Implications of these results include the importance of (1) disseminating vaccination education to young adults, (2) enhancing consistency/trust between medical professionals and youth, and (3) expanding public policy to increase vaccine uptake.

  1. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties

  2. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.

  3. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  4. Understanding antibiotic decision making in surgery-a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charani, E; Tarrant, C; Moorthy, K; Sevdalis, N; Brennan, L; Holmes, A H

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the characteristics and culture of antibiotic decision making in the surgical specialty. A qualitative study including ethnographic observation and face-to-face interviews with participants from six surgical teams at a teaching hospital in London was conducted. Over a 3-month period: (a) 30 ward rounds (WRs) (100 h) were observed, (b) face-to-face follow-up interviews took place with 13 key informants, (c) multidisciplinary meetings on the management of surgical patients and daily practice on wards were observed. Applying these methods provided rich data for characterizing the antibiotic decision making in surgery and enabled cross-validation and triangulation of the findings. Data from the interview transcripts and the observational notes were coded and analysed iteratively until saturation was reached. The surgical team is in a state of constant flux with individuals having to adjust to the context in which they work. The demands placed on the team to be in the operating room, and to address the surgical needs of the patient mean that the responsibility for antibiotic decision making is uncoordinated and diffuse. Antibiotic decision making is considered by surgeons as a secondary task, commonly delegated to junior members of their team and occurs in the context of disjointed communication. There is lack of clarity around medical decision making for treating infections in surgical patients. The result is sub-optimal and uncoordinated antimicrobial management. Developing the role of a perioperative clinician may help to improve patient-level outcomes and optimize decision making. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An analysis of the buy-vs-lease decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Jonathan W; Lexa, Frank J

    2006-02-01

    This article presents a financial model to analyze the buy-vs-lease decision. The model is constructed from the perspective of a lessee with an operating lease and uses the concept of net present value, which calculates the current value of predicted cash flows in the future. Predicted cash flows of an operating lease compared with buying are presented in the model, as is the after-tax borrowing rate, the appropriate discount rate used in a model of this type. The article also discusses nonfinancial factors that may influence the buy-vs-lease decision, including the need for flexibility in working capital and the anticipated technological obsolescence of equipment.

  6. Cloning, sequencing and variability analysis of the gap gene from Mycoplasma hominis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mygind, Tina; Jacobsen, Iben Søgaard; Melkova, Renata

    2000-01-01

    The gap gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). The gene was cloned and sequenced from the Mycoplasma hominis type strain PG21(T). The intraspecies variability was investigated by inspection of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns...... after polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the gap gene from 15 strains and furthermore by sequencing of part of the gene in eight strains. The M. hominis gap gene was found to vary more than the Escherichia coli counterpart, but the variation at nucleotide level gave rise to only a few...... amino acid substitutions. To verify that the gene was expressed in M. hominis, a polyclonal antibody was produced and tested against whole cell protein from 15 strains. The enzyme was expressed in all strains investigated as a 36-kDa protein. All strains except type strain PG21(T) showed reaction...

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Gap Conductance for Heat Split in an Annular Fuel Rod

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chun, Kun Ho; Chun, Tae Hyun; In, Wang Kee; Song, Keun Woo

    2006-01-01

    To increase of the core power density in the current PWR cores, an annular fuel rod was proposed by MIT. This annular fuel rod has two coolant channels and two cladding-pellet gaps unlike the current solid fuel rod. It's important to predict the heat split reasonably because it affects coolant enthalpy rise in each channel and Departure from Nuclear Boiling Ratio (DNBR) in each channel. Conversely, coolant conditions affect fuel temperature and heat split. In particular if the heat rate leans to either inner or outer channel, it is out of a thermal equilibrium. To control a thermal imbalance, placing another gap in the pellet is introduced. The heat flow distribution between internal and external channels as well as fuel and cladding temperature profiles is calculated with and without the fuel gap between the inner and outer pellets

  8. Male-female discrimination: an analysis of gender gap and its determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Quintano

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the occupational dynamics have brought in significant innovations in Italy, as the increased participation of women in the labour market, that have stimulated studies about the gender wage gap, concerning the different remuneration reserved to male and female workers. In this work the Authors, following Oaxaca and Blinder approach, estimate the gap for Italian employers and proceed to its decomposition, one part due to differences in individual characteristics (endowment effect and another part due to the different returns on the same characteristics (coefficient effect, related to discrimination. Then, the gender wage gap and its decomposition is analyzed with reference to Italian macro-areas considered separately with the aim to highlight the different fundamental dynamics. The model has also been modified using the Heckmann correction to eliminate the bias due to self-selection; i.e. the different propensity to work for men and women.

  9. Lifetime risks of kidney donation: a medical decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiberd, Bryce A; Tennankore, Karthik K

    2017-09-01

    This study estimated the potential loss of life and the lifetime cumulative risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from live kidney donation. Markov medical decision analysis. USA. 40-year-old live kidney donors of both sexes and black/white race. Live donor nephrectomy. Potential remaining life years lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and added lifetime cumulative risk of ESRD from donation. Overall 0.532-0.884 remaining life years were lost from donating a kidney. This was equivalent to 1.20%-2.34% of remaining life years (or 0.76%-1.51% remaining QALYs). The risk was higher in male and black individuals. The study showed that 1%-5% of average-age current live kidney donors might develop ESRD as a result of nephrectomy. The added risk of ESRD resulted in a loss of only 0.126-0.344 remaining life years. Most of the loss of life was predicted to be associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) not ESRD. Most events occurred 25 or more years after donation. Reducing the increased risk of death associated with CKD had a modest overall effect on the per cent loss of remaining life years (0.72%-1.9%) and QALYs (0.58%-1.33%). Smoking and obesity reduced life expectancy and increased overall lifetime risks of ESRD in non-donors. However the percentage loss of remaining life years from donation was not very different in those with or without these risk factors. Live kidney donation may reduce life expectancy by 0.5-1 year in most donors. The development of ESRD in donors may not be the only measure of risk as most of the predicted loss of life predates ESRD. The study identifies the potential importance of following donors and treating risk factors aggressively to prevent ESRD and to improve donor survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  10. Genetic and functional analysis of the gene encoding GAP-43 in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yu-Chih; Tsai, Ho-Min; Cheng, Min-Chih; Hsu, Shih-Hsin; Chen, Shih-Fen; Chen, Chia-Hsiang

    2012-02-01

    In earlier reports, growth-associated protein 43 (GAP-43) has been shown to be critical for initial establishment or reorganization of synaptic connections, a process thought to be disrupted in schizophrenia. Additionally, abnormal GAP-43 expression in different brain regions has been linked to this disorder in postmortem brain studies. In this study, we investigated the involvement of the gene encoding GAP-43 in the susceptibility to schizophrenia. We searched for genetic variants in the promoter region and 3 exons (including both UTR ends) of the GAP-43 gene using direct sequencing in a sample of patients with schizophrenia (n=586) and non-psychotic controls (n=576), both being Han Chinese from Taiwan, and conducted an association and functional study. We identified 11 common polymorphisms in the GAP-43 gene. SNP and haplotype-based analyses displayed no associations with schizophrenia. Additionally, we identified 4 rare variants in 5 out of 586 patients, including 1 variant located at the promoter region (c.-258-4722G>T) and 1 synonymous (V110V) and 2 missense (G150R and P188L) variants located at exon 2. No rare variants were found in the control subjects. The results of the reporter gene assay demonstrated that the regulatory activity of construct containing c.-258-4722T was significantly lower as compared to the wild type construct (c.-258-4722G; panalysis also demonstrated the functional relevance of other rare variants. Our study lends support to the hypothesis of multiple rare mutations in schizophrenia, and it provides genetic clues that indicate the involvement of GAP-43 in this disorder. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. [Teen pregnancy and educational gaps: Analysis of a national survey in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalobos-Hernández, Aremis; Campero, Lourdes; Suárez-López, Leticia; Atienzo, Erika E; Estrada, Fátima; De la Vara-Salazar, Elvia

    2015-01-01

    To characterize female adolescents who have been pregnant, and to analyze the association between adolescent pregnancy and educational gaps. A cross-sectional study was conducted. Data come from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 2012), a Mexican representative survey. The set of data used is related to sociodemographic and reproductive characteristics from 1 790 women from 12 to 19 years who had begun their sexual life and had a pregnancy record. Three statistical models were adjusted to observe the association between variables. The dependent variable of the first model was the condition of previous pregnancy, the second to be pregnant at the time of data collection, and the third, educational gap. A 74.9% of the adolescents with history of pregnancy has educational gap. To have the condition of previous pregnancy is associated with living with sexual partner (OR=8.4), educational gap (OR=2.4), low socioeconomical level (OR=2.0) and school assistance (OR=0.5). To be pregnant at the time of data collection has related only to living with sexual partner (OR=9.4). The educational gap shows an association with having more than one pregnancy (OR=2.4), live with sexual partner (OR=1.6), low socioeconomical level (OR=1.8), and school assistance as protective factor (OR=0.3). It is necessary to implement effective and efficient educational public politics in order to decrease educational gap. At the same time, to guarantee and improve sexual education in the school system to prevent adolescent pregnancy.

  12. Teen pregnancy and educational gaps: Analysis of a national survey in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aremis Villalobos-Hernández

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To characterize female adolescents who have been pregnant, and to analyze the association between adolescent pregnancy and educational gaps. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted. Data come from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 2012, a Mexican representative survey. The set of data used is related to sociodemographic and reproductive characteristics from 1 790 women from 12 to 19 years who had begun their sexual life and had a pregnancy record. Three statistical models were adjusted to observe the association between variables. The dependent variable of the first model was the condition of previous pregnancy, the second to be pregnant at the time of data collection, and the third, educational gap. Results. A 74.9% of the adolescents with history of pregnancy has educational gap. To have the condition of previous pregnancy is associated with living with sexual partner (OR=8.4, educational gap (OR=2.4, low socioeconomical level (OR=2.0 and school assistance (OR=0.5. To be pregnant at the time of data collection has related only to living with sexual partner (OR=9.4. The educational gap shows an association with having more than one pregnancy (OR=2.4, live with sexual partner (OR=1.6, low socioeconomical level (OR=1.8, and school assistance as protective factor (OR=0.3. Conclusion. It is necessary to implement effective and efficient educational public politics in order to decrease educational gap. At the same time, to guarantee and improve sexual education in the school system to prevent adolescent pregnancy.

  13. Unequal pay or unequal employment?: a cross-country analysis of gender gaps

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Olivetti; Barbara Petrongolo

    2005-01-01

    There is substantial international variation in gender pay gaps, from 25-30% in the US and the UK, to 10-20% in a number of central and northern EU countries, down to an average of 10% in southern EU. We argue that non-random selection of women into work across countries may explain part of such variation. This ides is supported by the observed variation in employment gaps, from 10% in the US, UK and Scandinavian countries, to 15-25% in northern and central EU, up to 30-40% in southern EU and...

  14. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  15. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  16. An empirical analysis of capital structure decisions in Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.

    1999-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis investigates capital structure decisions in Dutch firms. Firms are faced with the choice from a variety of sources of financing for the funding of their activities. These choices determine the firms' capital structures. Building on the well known theorems of Modigliani and Miller,

  17. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  18. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision

  19. An analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  20. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  1. Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, S R; Hayward, G M

    1982-01-01

    In our interim report a general review was given of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report, consideration is given to examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) which could be used to assist these tasks are discussed. The example decisions chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream.

  2. The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsing, David L.; Hessenflow, Mark L.; Wein, Anne

    2005-01-01

    We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and

  3. Bridging the gap between decision-making and emerging big data sources : an application of a model-based framework to disaster management in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Horita, Flávio E.A.; Albuquerque, João Porto de; Marchezini, Victor; Mendiondo, Eduardo M.

    2017-01-01

    With the emergence of big data and new data sources, a challenge posed to today's organizations consists of identifying how to align their decision-making and organizational processes to data that could help them make better-informed decisions. This paper presents a study in the context of disaster management in Brazil that applies oDMN +, a framework that connects decision-making with data sources through an extended modeling notation and a modeling process. The study results revealed that t...

  4. Quantitative analysis of dual whole-cell voltage-clamp determination of gap junctional conductance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijen, H. V.; Wilders, R.; van Ginneken, A. C.; Jongsma, H. J.

    1998-01-01

    The dual whole-cell voltage-clamp technique is used widely for determination of kinetics and conductance of gap junctions. The use of this technique may, however, occasion to considerable errors. We have analysed the errors in steady state junctional conductance measurements under different

  5. Analysis of welding distortion due to narrow-gap welding of upper port plug

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biswas, Pankaj; Mandal, N.R.; Vasu, Parameswaran; Padasalag, Shrishail B.

    2010-01-01

    Narrow-gap welding is a low distortion welding process. This process allows very thick plates to be joined using fewer weld passes as compared to conventional V-groove or double V-groove welding. In case of narrow-gap arc welding as the heat input and weld volume is low, it reduces thermal stress leading to reduction of both residual stress and distortion. In this present study the effect of narrow-gap welding was studied on fabrication of a scaled down port plug in the form of a trapezoidal box made of 10 mm thick mild steel (MS) plates using gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW). Inherent strain method was used for numerical prediction of resulting distortions. The numerical results compared well with that of the experimentally measured distortion. The validated numerical scheme was used for prediction of weld induced distortion due to narrow-gap welding of full scale upper port plug made of 60 mm thick SS316LN material as is proposed for use in ITER project. It was observed that it is feasible to fabricate the said port plug keeping the distortions minimum within about 7 mm using GTAW for root pass welding followed by SMAW for filler runs.

  6. Understanding the Gender Gap in School Performance among Low-Income Children: A Developmental Trajectory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingdon, Danielle; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Internationally, girls outperform boys in overall school performance. The gender gap is particularly large among those in at-risk groups, such as children from families at economic disadvantage. This study modeled the academic trajectories of a low-income sample of boys and girls from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project across the full course…

  7. How Welfare States Shape the Gender Pay Gap: A Theoretical and Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Hadas; Shalev, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We assess the impact of the welfare state on cross-national variation in the gender wage gap. Earnings inequality between men and women is conceptualized as resulting from their different locations in the class hierarchy, combined with the severity of wage differentials between and within classes. This decomposition contributes to identifying…

  8. Literacy Skills Gaps: A Cross-Level Analysis on International and Intergenerational Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suehye

    2018-01-01

    The global agenda for sustainable development has centred lifelong learning on UNESCO's Education 2030 Framework for Action. The study described in this article aimed to examine international and intergenerational variations in literacy skills gaps within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this purpose, the…

  9. Air gap membrane distillation. 2. Model validation and hollow fibre module performance analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guijt, C.M.; Meindersma, G.W.; Reith, T.; de Haan, A.B.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper the experimental results of counter current flow air gap membrane distillation experiments are presented and compared with predictive model calculations. Measurements were carried out with a cylindrical test module containing a single hollow fibre membrane in the centre and a

  10. Knowledge Management Practices and Enablers in Public Universities: A Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Sharimllah Devi; Chong, Siong-Choy; Wong, Kuan-Yew

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the gap between knowledge management (KM) practices and key strategic enablers in public universities. For this purpose, a 57-item survey on two dimensions--"use" and "importance"--was used as the instrument for this study. Design/methodology/approach: The questionnaire was…

  11. Self Practices and the Experiential Gap: An Analysis of Moral Behavior around Electricity Consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geerts, R.J.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: As a way to mitigate climate change, ways to reduce electricity consumption are being explored. I claim Briggle and Mitcham’s experiential gap offers a useful framework to understand the workings of our environment regarding this consumption. Via Foucauldian ethics, which holds people need

  12. Engineering Graduates' Skill Sets in the MENA Region: A Gap Analysis of Industry Expectations and Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadi, Eric; Ramadi, Serge; Nasr, Karim

    2016-01-01

    This study explored gaps between industry expectations and perceptions of engineering graduates' skill sets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study measured the importance that managers of engineers placed on 36 skills relevant to engineers. Also measured was managers' satisfaction with engineering graduates' skill sets.…

  13. IMPLEMENTATION OF GIS-BASED MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS WITH VB IN ArcGIS

    OpenAIRE

    DERYA OZTURK; FATMAGUL BATUK

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geographical information systems (GIS) and introduces a tool, GIS–MCDA, written in visual basic in ArcGIS for GIS-based MCDA. The GIS–MCDA deals with raster-based data sets and includes standardization, weighting and decision analysis methods, and sensitivity analysis. Simple additive weighting, weighted product method, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, compromise programming, a...

  14. Bridging the clinician/researcher gap with systemic research: the case for process research, dyadic, and sequential analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oka, Megan; Whiting, Jason

    2013-01-01

    In Marriage and Family Therapy (MFT), as in many clinical disciplines, concern surfaces about the clinician/researcher gap. This gap includes a lack of accessible, practical research for clinicians. MFT clinical research often borrows from the medical tradition of randomized control trials, which typically use linear methods, or follow procedures distanced from "real-world" therapy. We review traditional research methods and their use in MFT and propose increased use of methods that are more systemic in nature and more applicable to MFTs: process research, dyadic data analysis, and sequential analysis. We will review current research employing these methods, as well as suggestions and directions for further research. © 2013 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

  15. Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-11-01

    Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

  16. Design and methodology of the Geo-social Analysis of Physicians' settlement (GAP-Study) in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groneberg, David A; Boll, Michael; Bauer, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Unequally distributed disease burdens within populations are well-known and occur worldwide. They are depending on residents' social status and/or ethnic background. Country-specific health care systems - especially the coverage and distribution of health care providers - are both a potential cause as well as an important solution for health inequalities. Registers are built of all accredited physicians and psychotherapists within the outpatient care system in German metropolises by utilizing the database of the Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. The physicians' practice neighborhood will be analyzed under socioeconomic and demographic perspectives. Therefore, official city districts' statistics will be assigned to the physicians and psychotherapists according to their practice location. Averages of neighborhood indicators will be calculated for each specialty. Moreover, advanced studies will inspect differences by physicians' gender or practice type. Geo-spatial analyses of the intra-city practices distribution will complete the settlement characteristics of physicians and psychotherapists within the outpatient care system in German metropolises. The project "Geo-social Analysis of Physicians' settlement" (GAP) is designed to elucidate gaps of physician coverage within the outpatient care system, dependent on neighborhood residents' social status or ethnics in German metropolises. The methodology of the GAP-Study enables the standardized investigation of physicians' settlement behavior in German metropolises and their inter-city comparisons. The identification of potential gaps within the physicians' coverage should facilitate the delineation of approaches for solving health care inequality problems.

  17. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  18. A Pragmatic Study on the Service Gap Analysis of an Indian Public Sector Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rengasamy Nalini

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Customers are the major stakeholders and their satisfaction forms the basis of the sustainable competitive advantage of the firm. Attracting, satisfying and retaining customers lead to extended customer base and increased profit margins. Thus, the customer satisfaction is the ultimate objective of the firm which is possible by rendering quality service. The State Bank of India (SBI ranks as 67th in the list of largest banks in the world based on market capitalization as of March 31th 2014. The quality of service extended by the SBI has resulted in customer satisfaction and expanded customer base for the bank. Random sampling method is adopted for the collection of data from the respondents. In Tiruchirappalli regional office of State Bank of India, area operations are selected within 10 Kilometer radius from the Main branch and 60 questionnaires per branch have been distributed in 10 branches. Out of 600 questionnaires, 109 are found incomplete and 491 are fully complete with 81.83% of response rate. The data collected were analysed with the help of MS Excel to identify the gaps. The Cronbach alpha, a measure of internal consistency obtained is 0.925 which is considered to be excellent. This study aims to identify the gaps in the dimensions of service quality by administering SERVQUAL model among the customers in State Bank of India. An overall weighted SERVQUAL score of –1.42866 was arrived, representing a significant inconsistency in meeting customer expectations across all service dimensions. Highest gap scores for reliability and empathy depicts that there is a need for courtesy and politeness among SBI employees which in turn will help to establish a long term relationship with the customers. The relatively low gap scores were found for responsiveness, tangibles and assurance dimensions. The State Bank of India has to take steps to close the gaps and it can be closed by establishing and implementing a service quality information system.

  19. Yield gap analysis in long-term experiments with intensive rice cultivation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laureles, E.V.; Correa, T. Jr.; Buresh, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term continuous cropping experiment at IRRI is cultivated with three rice crops in a year, making it the world's most intensively cropped long-term rice experiment. The availability of comprehensive rice production records, compiled weather data, and tested crop models provides a means to evaluate long-term trends in measured and potential yields and yield gaps in this rice production system. Yield trends were assessed using the highest yielding cultivar in each cropping season from 1979 to 2005. Potential yield of the highest yielding cultivar in each season was determined using three rice models (ORYZA, TERM, and CERES) run with the actual transplanting and harvest dates for the cultivar. The yield gap was determined from the difference between the simulated potential grain yield and the measured grain yield. Measured and potential yields and the yield gap varied across seasons and years. Measured yields were higher in the dry season than in the early and late wet seasons. The yield gap tended to be higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Climatic parameters, particularly solar radiation, influenced the performance of rice cultivars. The relatively larger yield gaps in the late wet season than in the dry season were associated with increased spikelet sterility. The cumulative measured yield for the three annual rice crop was near 80 percent of the annual yield potential in years with best practices for fertilizer N and crop management. The long term trends suggest that effective timing and rates of N fertilization and effective control of diseases were critical in achieving 80 percent of the annual yield potential

  20. Upaya Peningkatan Kualitas Pelayanan Jalan Tol Semarang-bawen Dengan Integrasi Metode Importance Performance Gap Analysis, Lean, Dan Six Sigma

    OpenAIRE

    Sari, Diana Puspita; Winanda, Ariani Putri; Bakhtiar, Arfan; Rinawati, Dyah Ika; Widharto, Yusuf

    2017-01-01

    PT Trans Marga Jateng (TMJ) is a company engaged in service sector, which is managing Semarang-Bawen toll road. The result of preliminary surveyconducted by PT TMJ showed that service quality of PT TMJ is still unsatisfactory, so it is necessary to do research on improving service quality. Service quality can be measured from two perspectives, i.e., internal perspective and external perspective. The external perspective can be measured with Importance Performance Gap Analysis (IPGA) method, w...

  1. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action: developing a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA ) process for prioritization of NAMAs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharma, Sudhir; Desgain, Denis DR; Sandbukt, Sunniva

    be relevant as next year countries will have to translate their mitigation contribution outlined in their INDCs submitted to UNFCCC into implementation plans. Multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool commonly used for decision making process, including to rank options or to short-list a limited...

  2. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

  3. Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

  4. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  5. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  6. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

  7. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

  8. Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nease, R F

    1996-01-01

    Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

  9. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

  10. Analysis of decision procedures for a sequence of inventory periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avenhaus, R.

    1982-07-01

    Optimal test procedures for a sequence of inventory periods will be discussed. Starting with a game theoretical description of the conflict situation between the plant operator and the inspector, the objectives of the inspector as well as the general decision theoretical problem will be formulated. In the first part the objective of 'secure' detection will be emphasized which means that only at the end of the reference time a decision is taken by the inspector. In the second part the objective of 'timely' detection will be emphasized which will lead to sequential test procedures. At the end of the paper all procedures will be summarized, and in view of the multitude of procedures available at the moment some comments about future work will be given. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  12. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defechereux Thierry

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  13. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

    2012-02-15

    Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  14. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  15. Patient decision making competence: outlines of a conceptual analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welie, J V; Welie, S P

    2001-01-01

    In order to protect patients against medical paternalism, patients have been granted the right to respect of their autonomy. This right is operationalized first and foremost through the phenomenon of informed consent. If the patient withholds consent, medical treatment, including life-saving treatment, may not be provided. However, there is one proviso: The patient must be competent to realize his autonomy and reach a decision about his own care that reflects that autonomy. Since one of the most important patient rights hinges on the patient's competence, it is crucially important that patient decision making incompetence is clearly defined and can be diagnosed with the greatest possible degree of sensitivity and, even more important, specificity. Unfortunately, the reality is quite different. There is little consensus in the scientific literature and even less among clinicians and in the law as to what competence exactly means, let alone how it can be diagnosed reliably. And yet, patients are deemed incompetent on a daily basis, losing the right to respect of their autonomy. In this article, we set out to fill that hiatus by beginning at the very beginning, the literal meaning of the term competence. We suggest a generic definition of competence and derive four necessary conditions of competence. We then transpose this definition to the health care context and discuss patient decision making competence.

  16. A user perspective on the gap between science and decision-making. Local administrators’ views on expert knowledge in urban planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stigt, van Rien; Driessen, P.J.; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    The role of expert knowledge of the environment in decision-making about urban development has been intensively debated. Most contributions to this debate have studied the use of knowledge in the decision-making process from the knowledge providers’ point of view. In this paper, we reverse the

  17. The risk evaluation of difficult substances in USES 2.0 and EUSES. A decision tree for data gap filling of Kow, Koc and BCF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beelen P van; ECO

    2000-01-01

    This report presents a decision tree for the risk evaluation of the so-called "difficult" substances with the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES). The decision tree gives practical guidelines for the regulatory authorities to evaluate notified substances like organometallic

  18. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  19. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

  20. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present research are: 1 to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2 to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3 how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea and opinion. Research result shows that product which has many ratings and reviews will trigger other buyers to purchase or get that product. The conclusion is that product buying decision may occur because there are some processes before making decision which are: looking for recognition and searching for problems, knowing the needs, collecting information, evaluating alternative, evaluating after buying. In those stages, buying decision on Lazada e-commerce is supported by price, promotion, service, and brand.

  1. USER PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS ON E-INFORMATION LITERACY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES: A GAP ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaminda Chiran Jayasundara

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper discuses the user perceptions and expectations of postgraduate students of the University of Colombo towards the e-information literacy skills development programme conducted by the library. Data was collected from 21 individuals through semi-structured questionnaire using gap theory. Overall, students satisfy with the quality of the programme and found three impediments to develop the service such as staff attitude, lack of mentoring and high customer demand.

  2. single crystal growth, x-ray structure analysis, optical band gap

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-09-01

    Sep 1, 2015 ... Hg...Hgand Cl...Cl interactions are stabilizing the structures in 3D pattern. UV-vis absorption spectra illustrate the change in opticalband gap from 3.01eVto 3.42eV on replacing the metal halide group.Raman and Hyper-Raman tensors calculations were performed based on single crystal X-ray data and the ...

  3. A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

  4. Phylogenetic and bioinformatic analysis of gap junction-related proteins, innexins, pannexins and connexins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushiki, Daisuke; Hamada, Yasuo; Yoshimura, Ryoichi; Endo, Yasuhisa

    2010-04-01

    All multi-cellular animals, including hydra, insects and vertebrates, develop gap junctions, which communicate directly with neighboring cells. Gap junctions consist of protein families called connexins in vertebrates and innexins in invertebrates. Connexins and innexins have no homology in their amino acid sequence, but both are thought to have some similar characteristics, such as a tetra-membrane-spanning structure, formation of a channel by hexamer, and transmission of small molecules (e.g. ions) to neighboring cells. Pannexins were recently identified as a homolog of innexins in vertebrate genomes. Although pannexins are thought to share the function of intercellular communication with connexins and innexins, there is little information about the relationship among these three protein families of gap junctions. We phylgenetically and bioinformatically examined these protein families and other tetra-membrane-spanning proteins using a database and three analytical softwares. The clades formed by pannexin families do not belong to the species classification but do to paralogs of each member of pannexins. Amino acid sequences of pannexins are closely related to those of innexins but less to those of connexins. These data suggest that innexins and pannexins have a common origin, but the relationship between innexins/pannexins and connexins is as slight as that of other tetra-membrane-spanning members.

  5. Decisions and Reasons: Examining Preservice Teacher Decision-Making through Video Self-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Peter J.; Hannafin, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    Methods used to study teacher thinking have both provided insight into the cognitive aspects of teaching and resulted in new, as yet unresolved, relationships between practice and theory. Recent developments in video-analysis tools have allowed preservice teachers to analyze both their practices and thinking, providing important feedback for…

  6. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of TWRS waste treatment strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-01-01

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model

  7. A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

    1975-01-01

    A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)

  8. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  9. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  10. Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ... producers to access more consumable, accurate and timely information for making informed choices. ... To capitalise on 'big data', the sub-Saharan African grain industry needs ...

  11. Degeneracy analysis for a supercell of a photonic crystal and its application to the creation of band gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Liang; Zhuang Fie; He Sailing

    2003-01-01

    A method is introduced to analyze the degeneracy properties of the band structure of a photonic crystal by making use of supercells. The band structure associated with a supercell of a photonic crystal has degeneracies at the edge of the Brillouin zone if the photonic crystal has some kind of point group symmetry. The E-polarization and H-polarization cases have the same degeneracies for a two-dimensional (2D) photonic crystal. Two theorems on degeneracies in the band structure associated with the supercell are given and proved. These degeneracies can be lifted to create photonic band gaps by changing the translation group symmetry of the photonic crystal (the point group symmetry of the photonic crystal may remain unchanged), which consequently changes the transform matrix between the supercell and the smallest unit cell. The existence of photonic band gaps for many known 2D photonic crystals is explained through the degeneracy analysis. Some structures with large band gaps are also found through the present degeneracy analysis

  12. Analysis of rice purchase decision on rice consumer in Bandung city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusno, K.; Imannurdin, A.; Syamsiyah, N.; Djuwendah, E.

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted at three kinds of purchase location which were traditional market, rice kiosk, and supermarket in Bandung City, with survey data of 108 respondents which were selected by systematic random sampling. The aim of this study is to (1) identify consumer characteristics, (2) identify which atribute is considered by consumer in buying rice, and (3) analyze the relationship between purchase decision and income class. Data were analyzed by descriptive analysis and Chi Square test. The results showed most consumers in the traditional market were middle-educated and lower middle-income, at the rice kiosk, the consumer were generally middle-educated and middle-income, and in the supermarkets, the majority were high-educated and upper middle-income consumers. “Kepulenan” be the first priority of most consumers, but for the lower-middle class, the main priority was price. Thus, in case of scarcity and rice price increase, the government should immediately arrange market operations which targeting to lower-middle class consumers. There was a significant relationship between (1) the quality of rice consumed, (2) the frequency of rice purchase per month, and (3) attitudes toward rice price increase; each with the income class. Although the price of rice increase, consumers of middle and upper-middle were remain loyal to the quality of rice they consumed. This indicates rice market in Bandung city is an ideal market for premium rice so that traders and producers are expected to maintain the quality of rice, such as keep using superior seeds and applying good cultivation based on Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) rules.

  13. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackey, H.E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States); Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D. [South Carolina Univ., Columbia, SC (United States)

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  14. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  15. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

  17. Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

  18. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  19. Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decisionmaking framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grégoire Jean-Pierre

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH for Turner syndrome (TS as a complex case study. Methods The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics, with a qualitative tool including six ethical and health system-related components of decision. An extensive review of the literature was performed to develop a health technology assessment report (HTA tailored to each component of decision, and content was validated by experts. A panel of representative stakeholders then estimated the MCDA value of GH for TS in Canada by assigning weights and scores to each MCDA component of decision and then considered the impact of non-quantifiable components of decision. Results Applying the framework revealed significant data gaps and the importance of aligning research questions with data needs to truly inform decision. Panelists estimated the value of GH for TS at 41% of maximum value on the MCDA scale, with good agreement at the individual level (retest value 40%; ICC: 0.687 and large variation across panelists. Main contributors to this panel specific value were "Improvement of efficacy", "Disease severity" and "Quality of evidence". Ethical considerations on utility, efficiency and fairness as well as potential misuse of GH had mixed effects on the perceived value of the treatment. Conclusions This framework is proposed as a pragmatic step beyond the current cost-effectiveness model, combining HTA, MCDA, values and ethics. It supports systematic consideration of all components of decision and available evidence for greater transparency. Further testing and validation is needed to build up MCDA approaches combined with pragmatic HTA in healthcare decisionmaking.

  20. Analysis of flow boiling heat transfer in narrow annular gaps applying the design of experiments method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunar Boye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The axial heat transfer coefficient during flow boiling of n-hexane was measured using infrared thermography to determine the axial wall temperature in three geometrically similar annular gaps with different widths (s = 1.5 mm, s = 1 mm, s = 0.5 mm. During the design and evaluation process, the methods of statistical experimental design were applied. The following factors/parameters were varied: the heat flux q · = 30 − 190 kW / m 2 , the mass flux m · = 30 − 700 kg / m 2 s , the vapor quality x · = 0 . 2 − 0 . 7 , and the subcooled inlet temperature T U = 20 − 60 K . The test sections with gap widths of s = 1.5 mm and s = 1 mm had very similar heat transfer characteristics. The heat transfer coefficient increases significantly in the range of subcooled boiling, and after reaching a maximum at the transition to the saturated flow boiling, it drops almost monotonically with increasing vapor quality. With a gap width of 0.5 mm, however, the heat transfer coefficient in the range of saturated flow boiling first has a downward trend and then increases at higher vapor qualities. For each test section, two correlations between the heat transfer coefficient and the operating parameters have been created. The comparison also shows a clear trend of an increasing heat transfer coefficient with increasing heat flux for test sections s = 1.5 mm and s = 1.0 mm, but with increasing vapor quality, this trend is reversed for test section 0.5 mm.