WorldWideScience

Sample records for gap analysis decision

  1. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  2. Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2006-01-01

    Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

  3. gap: Genetic Analysis Package

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Hua Zhao

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available A preliminary attempt at collecting tools and utilities for genetic data as an R package called gap is described. Genomewide association is then described as a specific example, linking the work of Risch and Merikangas (1996, Long and Langley (1997 for family-based and population-based studies, and the counterpart for case-cohort design established by Cai and Zeng (2004. Analysis of staged design as outlined by Skol et al. (2006 and associate methods are discussed. The package is flexible, customizable, and should prove useful to researchers especially in its application to genomewide association studies.

  4. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  5. Sustainability Tools Inventory - Initial Gaps Analysis | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report identifies a suite of tools that address a comprehensive set of community sustainability concerns. The objective is to discover whether "gaps" exist in the tool suite’s analytic capabilities. These tools address activities that significantly influence resource consumption, waste generation, and hazard generation including air pollution and greenhouse gases. In addition, the tools have been evaluated using four screening criteria: relevance to community decision making, tools in an appropriate developmental stage, tools that may be transferrable to situations useful for communities, and tools with requiring skill levels appropriate to communities. This document provides an initial gap analysis in the area of community sustainability decision support tools. It provides a reference to communities for existing decision support tools, and a set of gaps for those wishing to develop additional needed tools to help communities to achieve sustainability. It contributes to SHC 1.61.4

  6. Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

  7. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  8. Gap Surface Plasmon Waveguide Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Grøndahl; Bozhevolnyi, Sergey I.

    2014-01-01

    Plasmonic waveguides supporting gap surface plasmons (GSPs) localized in a dielectric spacer between metal films are investigated numerically and the waveguiding properties at telecommunication wavelengths are presented. Especially, we emphasize that the mode confinement can advantageously be con...

  9. Barriers for an effective communication around clinical decision making: an analysis of the gaps between doctors' and patients' point of view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mira, José Joaquín; Guilabert, Mercedes; Pérez-Jover, Virtudes; Lorenzo, Susana

    2014-12-01

    There are doubts on whether patients feel that they have sufficient information for actively participating in clinical decisions. To describe the type of information that patients receive. To determine whether patients consider this information sufficient, and whether it contributes or not to improve clinical safety. To identify the barriers for patient participation in clinical decision making. Cross-sectional study with 764 patients and 327 physicians. Fourteen health centres belonging to three primary care districts and three hospitals in Spain. Just 35.1% (268) (95% CI 32.2, 39.1%) of patients preferred to have the last word in clinical decisions. Age (39 vs. 62%, P communication by the patients. Only 19.6% (64) (95% CI 15.4, 24.2%) of doctors considered that they could intervene to involve patients in the decisions. The majority of patients prefer the decisions to be made by their doctor, especially those with more severe illnesses, and older patients. Patients are not normally informed about medication interactions, precautions and foreseeable complications. The information provided by general practitioners does not seem to contribute enough to the patient involvement in clinical safety. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  11. Columbia River Component Data Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    L. C. Hulstrom

    2007-10-23

    This Data Gap Analysis report documents the results of a study conducted by Washington Closure Hanford (WCH) to compile and reivew the currently available surface water and sediment data for the Columbia River near and downstream of the Hanford Site. This Data Gap Analysis study was conducted to review the adequacy of the existing surface water and sediment data set from the Columbia River, with specific reference to the use of the data in future site characterization and screening level risk assessments.

  12. Robust Decision Making and Info-Gap Decision Theory for water resource system planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matrosov, Evgenii S.; Woods, Ashley M.; Harou, Julien J.

    2013-06-01

    Stationarity assumptions of linked human-water systems are frequently invalid given the difficult-to-predict changes affecting such systems. In this case water planning occurs under conditions of deep or severe uncertainty, where the statistical distributions of future conditions and events are poorly known. In such situations predictive system simulation models are typically run under different scenarios to evaluate the performance of future plans under different conditions. Given that there are many possible plans and many possible futures, which simulations will lead to the best designs? Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) provide a structured approach to planning complex systems under such uncertainty. Both RDM and IGDT make repeated use of trusted simulation models to evaluate different plans under different future conditions. Both methods seek to identify robust rather than optimal decisions, where a robust decision works satisfactorily over a broad range of possible futures. IGDT efficiently charts system performance with robustness and opportuneness plots summarising system performance for different plans under the most dire and favourable sets of future conditions. RDM samples a wider range of dire, benign and opportune futures and offers a holistic assessment of the performance of different options. RDM also identifies through ‘scenario discovery' which combinations of uncertain future stresses lead to system vulnerabilities. In our study we apply both frameworks to a water resource system planning problem: London's water supply system expansion in the Thames basin, UK. The methods help identify which out of 20 proposed water supply infrastructure portfolios is the most robust given severely uncertain future hydrological inflows, water demands and energy prices. Multiple criteria of system performance are considered: service reliability, storage susceptibility, capital and operating cost, energy use and environmental flows

  13. Trunnion Collar Removal Machine - Gap Analysis Table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to review the existing the trunnion collar removal machine against the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) [Ref. 10] requirements and to identify codes and standards and supplemental requirements to meet these requirements. If these codes and standards can not fully meet these requirements then a ''gap'' is identified. These gaps will be identified here and addressed using the ''Trunnion Collar Removal Machine Design Development Plan'' [Ref. 15]. The codes and standards, supplemental requirements, and design development requirements for the trunnion collar removal machine are provided in the gap analysis table (Appendix A, Table 1). Because the trunnion collar removal machine is credited with performing functions important to safety (ITS) in the NSDB [Ref. 10], design basis requirements are applicable to ensure equipment is available and performs required safety functions when needed. The gap analysis table is used to identify design objectives and provide a means to satisfy safety requirements. To ensure that the trunnion collar removal machine performs required safety functions and meets performance criteria, this portion of the gap analysis tables supplies codes and standards sections and the supplemental requirements and identifies design development requirements, if needed

  14. IAEA Review for Gap Analysis of Safety Analysis Capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basic, Ivica; Kim, Manwoong; Huges, Peter; Lim, B-K; D'Auria, Francesco; Louis, Vidard Michael

    2014-01-01

    The IAEA Asian Nuclear Safety Network (ANSN) was launched in 2002 in the framework of the Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP) on the Safety of Nuclear Installations in the South East Asia, Pacific and Far East Countries. The main objective is to strengthen and expand human and advanced Information Technology (IT) network to pool, analyse and share nuclear safety knowledge and practical experience for peaceful uses in this region. Under the ANSN framework, a technical group on Safety Analysis (SATG) was established in 2004 aimed to providing a forum for the exchange of experience in the following areas of safety analysis: · To provide a forum for an exchange of experience in the area of safety analysis, · To maintain and improve the knowledge on safety analysis method, · To enhance the utilization of computer codes, · To pool and analyse the issues related with safety analysis of research reactor, and · To facilitate mutual interested on safety analysis among member countries. A sustainable and successful nuclear energy programme requires a strong technical infrastructure, including a workforce made up of highly specialized and well-educated professionals. A significant portion of this technical capacity must be dedicated to safety- especially to safety analysis- as only then can it serve as the basis for making the right decisions during the planning, licensing, construction and operation of new nuclear facilities. In this regard, the IAEA has provided ANSN member countries with comprehensive training opportunities for capacity building in safety analysis. Nevertheless, the SATG recognizes that it is difficult to achieve harmonization in this area among all member countries because of their different competency levels. Therefore, it is necessary to quickly identify the most obvious gaps in safety analysis capability and then to use existing resources to begin to fill those gaps. The goal of this Expert Mission (EM) for gap finding service is to facilitate

  15. Decision analysis using decision trees for a simple clinical decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakley, Brian

    2012-10-01

    To illustrate the use of decision trees with a utility index in clinical decision making. A decision tree was created related to whether or not to perform a tonsillectomy. Data from the literature were applied to a common hypothetical clinical scenario. A decision tree graphically represents the typical decision-making process that many clinicians use. The addition of utility functions permitted consideration of the adverse or beneficial effects of outcomes, altering the treatment decision. Quantitative tools such as decision trees may quantify outcome preferences and aid in clinical decision making, but the proper tool and background data are essential.

  16. Inception report and gap analysis. Boiler inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    This inception and gap analysis report on boilers in Latvia, has been prepared in the framework of the 'Implementation of the EU directive on energy performance of buildings: development of the Latvian Scheme for energy auditing of building and inspection of boilers'. The report is the basis for the establishment of training of boiler inspectors; it develops a gap analysis for better understanding and estimating the number of installations in Latvia and develops suggestions for the institutional set up. In particular includes information on existing standard and regulation on boiler, suggestion for the content of the training material of experts for boiler inspections and a syllabus of the training course. A specific section is dedicated to the suggestion for certification system of trained boiler inspectors. (au)

  17. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  18. Health innovations in patient decision support: Bridging the gaps and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirk Jenn Ng

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Patient decision aids (PDAs help to support patients in making an informed and value-based decision. Despite advancement in decision support technologies over the past 30 years, most PDAs are still inaccessible and few address individual needs. Health innovation may provide a solution to bridge these gaps. Information and computer technology provide a platform to incorporate individual profiles and needs into PDAs, making the decision support more personalised. Health innovation may enhance accessibility by using mobile, tablet and Internet technologies; make risk communication more interactive; and identify patient values more effectively. In addition, using databases to capture patient data and the usage of PDAs can help: developers to improve PDAs’ design; clinicians to facilitate the decisionmaking process more effectively; and policy makers to make shared decision making more feasible and cost-effective. Health innovation may hold the key to advancing PDAs by creating a more personalised and effective decision support tool for patients making healthcare decisions.

  19. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J; Xiao, Hong

    2015-12-01

    There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. What Explains the Gender Gap in Financial Literacy? The Role of Household Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Raquel; Mullen, Kathleen J; Zamarro, Gema; Zissimopoulos, Julie

    2012-01-01

    Using newly collected data from the RAND American Life Panel, we examine potential explanations for the gender gap in financial literacy, including the role of marriage and who within a couple makes the financial decisions. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition reveals the majority of the gender gap in financial literacy is not explained by differences in the characteristics of men and women-but rather differences in coefficients, or how literacy is produced. We find that financial decision making of couples is not centralized in one spouse although it is sensitive to the relative education level of spouses.

  1. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  2. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This article explored the models, roles, tools and methods of consensus decision making. The results were that consensus decision making brings people together and cements the relationship among employees. The lone ranger’s decision is only consented to by staff but inwardly disagreeable resulting in short term benefits but long term collapse of organizations.

  3. Software Development for Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    place vandom variable 1 after decision 3 in the tree. In the nuit phase of our research, we hope to develop general algorithms for translating any...1 5 | > 192 - -■--■ i r«iiii iiml ii MM and tl en defining (GUARANTEE COST)!^ □□BlfSMMiMYTIfS) feöl QF]( GUARANTEE")!^(YES) • The blanching ...Stanford, California, 1974. [4c] Howard, R. A., "Proximal Decision Analysis," Management Science Vol. 17, No. 9, May 1971. a L [5] International

  4. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  5. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  6. The construct-behavior gap in behavioral decision research: A challenge beyond replicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regenwetter, Michel; Robinson, Maria M

    2017-10-01

    Behavioral decision research compares theoretical constructs like preferences to behavior such as observed choices. Three fairly common links from constructs to behavior are (1) to tally, across participants and decision problems, the number of choices consistent with one predicted pattern of pairwise preferences; (2) to compare what most people choose in each decision problem against a predicted preference pattern; or (3) to enumerate the decision problems in which two experimental conditions generate a 1-sided significant difference in choice frequency 'consistent' with the theory. Although simple, these theoretical links are heuristics. They are subject to well-known reasoning fallacies, most notably the fallacy of sweeping generalization and the fallacy of composition. No amount of replication can alleviate these fallacies. On the contrary, reiterating logically inconsistent theoretical reasoning over and again across studies obfuscates science. As a case in point, we consider pairwise choices among simple lotteries and the hypotheses of overweighting or underweighting of small probabilities, as well as the description-experience gap. We discuss ways to avoid reasoning fallacies in bridging the conceptual gap between hypothetical constructs, such as, for example, "overweighting" to observable pairwise choice data. Although replication is invaluable, successful replication of hard-to-interpret results is not. Behavioral decision research stands to gain much theoretical and empirical clarity by spelling out precise and formally explicit theories of how hypothetical constructs translate into observable behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of the Gap Heat Transfer Model in BISON.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Schmidt, Rodney C.; Williamson, Richard (INL); Perez, Danielle (INL)

    2014-10-01

    This report summarizes the result of a NEAMS project focused on sensitivity analysis of the heat transfer model in the gap between the fuel rod and the cladding used in the BISON fuel performance code of Idaho National Laboratory. Using the gap heat transfer models in BISON, the sensitivity of the modeling parameters and the associated responses is investigated. The study results in a quantitative assessment of the role of various parameters in the analysis of gap heat transfer in nuclear fuel.

  8. Sustainability Tools Inventory Initial Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report identifies a suite of tools that address a comprehensive set of community sustainability concerns. The objective is to discover whether "gaps" exist in the tool suite’s analytic capabilities. These tools address activities that significantly influence resource consu...

  9. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  10. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  11. Next Generation Nuclear Plant GAP Analysis Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, Sydney J [ORNL; Burchell, Timothy D [ORNL; Corwin, William R [ORNL; Fisher, Stephen Eugene [ORNL; Forsberg, Charles W. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Morris, Robert Noel [ORNL; Moses, David Lewis [ORNL

    2008-12-01

    As a follow-up to the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) studies conducted recently by NRC on next generation nuclear plant (NGNP) safety, a study was conducted to identify the significant 'gaps' between what is needed and what is already available to adequately assess NGNP safety characteristics. The PIRT studies focused on identifying important phenomena affecting NGNP plant behavior, while the gap study gives more attention to off-normal behavior, uncertainties, and event probabilities under both normal operation and postulated accident conditions. Hence, this process also involved incorporating more detailed evaluations of accident sequences and risk assessments. This study considers thermal-fluid and neutronic behavior under both normal and postulated accident conditions, fission product transport (FPT), high-temperature metals, and graphite behavior and their effects on safety. In addition, safety issues related to coupling process heat (hydrogen production) systems to the reactor are addressed, given the limited design information currently available. Recommendations for further study, including analytical methods development and experimental needs, are presented as appropriate in each of these areas.

  12. Science in Society: Bridging the gap to connect science to decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.

    2016-12-01

    The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time

  13. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

    2017-06-13

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

  14. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiker, Gregory A; Bridges, Todd S; Varghese, Arun; Seager, P Thomas P; Linkov, Igor

    2005-04-01

    Decision making in environmental projects can be complex and seemingly intractable, principally because of the inherent trade-offs between sociopolitical, environmental, ecological, and economic factors. The selection of appropriate remedial and abatement strategies for contaminated sites, land use planning, and regulatory processes often involves multiple additional criteria such as the distribution of costs and benefits, environmental impacts for different populations, safety, ecological risk, or human values. Some of these criteria cannot be easily condensed into a monetary value, partly because environmental concerns often involve ethical and moral principles that may not be related to any economic use or value. Furthermore, even if it were possible to aggregate multiple criteria rankings into a common unit, this approach would not always be desirable because the ability to track conflicting stakeholder preferences may be lost in the process. Consequently, selecting from among many different alternatives often involves making trade-offs that fail to satisfy 1 or more stakeholder groups. Nevertheless, considerable research in the area of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has made available practical methods for applying scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex multicriteria problems. This paper presents a review of the available literature and provides recommendations for applying MCDA techniques in environmental projects. A generalized framework for decision analysis is proposed to highlight the fundamental ingredients for more structured and tractable environmental decision making.

  15. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  16. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate th...

  17. Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem

    2010-01-01

    In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique.

  18. Analysis of energy gap opening in graphene oxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lundie, Mark; Tomić, Stanko; Šljivančanin, Željko

    2014-01-01

    The utilisation of graphene structures as photonics materials mandates that an optically active electronic energy gap be formed. Opening of a gap in graphene has been demonstrated by functionalisation with H, F, or O atoms, while experimental observations of graphene oxide have hinted at interesting optical properties, with the potential for absorption of visible light. As such, our analysis is focused on O functionalisation of graphene. We present results from extensive ab initio and hybrid DFT calculations, demonstrating the creation of an optically active gap.

  19. Protected area gap analysis of important bird areas in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sritharan, Shakthi; Burgess, Neil David

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of gaps in protected area (PA) coverage of species distributions have been carried out extensively for the past two decades, aiming to better locate new PAs and conserve species. In this study, progress to close gaps in the protection of the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) of Tanzania...... that there has been a 5.3% increase (7615.1 km2) in protection of IBAs between 2007 and 2009. Of the 27 remaining IBA protection gaps, three are of high, nine of medium and fifteen of low priority for action. The current IBA "gap area" of 17,133.3 km2 contains around 26% forest, 13% shrubland, 9% grassland, 36......% wetland and 12% agricultural land. This analysis provides a simple template for defining where further action to protect remaining IBA sites in Tanzania would lead to enhanced conservation of avian biodiversity in that country and provides a methodology for analysis leading to conservation action...

  20. Gene circuit analysis of the terminal gap gene huckebein.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksat Ashyraliyev

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The early embryo of Drosophila melanogaster provides a powerful model system to study the role of genes in pattern formation. The gap gene network constitutes the first zygotic regulatory tier in the hierarchy of the segmentation genes involved in specifying the position of body segments. Here, we use an integrative, systems-level approach to investigate the regulatory effect of the terminal gap gene huckebein (hkb on gap gene expression. We present quantitative expression data for the Hkb protein, which enable us to include hkb in gap gene circuit models. Gap gene circuits are mathematical models of gene networks used as computational tools to extract regulatory information from spatial expression data. This is achieved by fitting the model to gap gene expression patterns, in order to obtain estimates for regulatory parameters which predict a specific network topology. We show how considering variability in the data combined with analysis of parameter determinability significantly improves the biological relevance and consistency of the approach. Our models are in agreement with earlier results, which they extend in two important respects: First, we show that Hkb is involved in the regulation of the posterior hunchback (hb domain, but does not have any other essential function. Specifically, Hkb is required for the anterior shift in the posterior border of this domain, which is now reproduced correctly in our models. Second, gap gene circuits presented here are able to reproduce mutants of terminal gap genes, while previously published models were unable to reproduce any null mutants correctly. As a consequence, our models now capture the expression dynamics of all posterior gap genes and some variational properties of the system correctly. This is an important step towards a better, quantitative understanding of the developmental and evolutionary dynamics of the gap gene network.

  1. Fit gap analysis for HANDI 2000 business management system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, D.

    1998-08-24

    The purpose of the Fit Gap Analysis sessions was to identify any significant functional gaps with PeopleSoft Financial as it relates to the business requirements of Fluor Daniel Hanford (FDH). To that end, a series of prototyping sessions were held with members of the core team and subject matter experts, where functionality and test cases were discussed. Test cases were developed for PeopleSoft Projects and General Ledger and run through the data processing model.

  2. Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

  3. A Study of Gaps in Attack Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-12

    necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense. © 2016 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Delivered to the U.S. Government with...and identify cyber attacks reflects the “arms race” na- ture of the cyber domain. While defenders develop new and improved techniques to detect known...Trost. Digging into ShellShock Exploitation attempts using ShockPot Data. https://www.threatstream.com/ blog /shockpot-exploitation-analysis, September

  4. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  5. Progressive methods in multiple criteria decision analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Our work mainly focusses on the study and the development of progressive methods in the field of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, i.e., iterative procedures presenting partial conclusions to the Decision Maker that can be refined at further steps of the analysis. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first one is intended to be a general analysis of the concept of progressiveness. The last two parts develop progressive methods related first to Multiattribute Value Theory and sec...

  6. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Val, Dimitri V.; Stewart, Mark G.

    2005-01-01

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  7. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  8. Using yield gap analysis to give sustainable intensification local meaning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silva, João Vasco

    2017-01-01

    Yield gap analysis is useful to understand the relative contribution of growth-defining, -limiting and -reducing factors to actual yields. This is traditionally performed at the field level using mechanistic crop growth simulation models, and directly up-scaled to the regional and global levels

  9. Yield gap analysis of feed-crop livestock systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linden, van der Aart; Oosting, Simon J.; Ven, van de Gerrie W.J.; Veysset, Patrick; Boer, de Imke J.M.; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2018-01-01

    Sustainable intensification is a strategy contributing to global food security. The scope for sustainable intensification in crop sciences can be assessed through yield gap analysis, using crop growth models based on concepts of production ecology. Recently, an analogous cattle production model

  10. A Critical Policy Analysis of Texas' "Closing the Gaps 2015"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Katherine Cumings; Thackik, Stefani Leigh

    2016-01-01

    This critical policy analysis uses critical race theory to provide a counter narrative to the P-16 initiative in Texas known as "Closing the Gaps 2015". Findings indicate that while these reforms aim to increase educational access and achievement for people of color, they fall short of addressing systemic inequities such as enduring…

  11. Hydrogen Safety Sensor Performance and Use Gap Analysis: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buttner, William J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Burgess, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schmidt, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hartmann, Kevin S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wright, Hannah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weidner, Eveline [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Cebolla, Rafael O. [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Bonato, Christian [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Moretto, Pietro [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands

    2017-11-15

    Hydrogen sensors are recognized as an important technology for facilitating the safe implementation of hydrogen as an alternative fuel, and there are numerous reports of a sensor alarm successfully preventing a potentially serious event. However, gaps in sensor metrological specifications, as well as in their performance for some applications, exist.The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technology Office published a short list of critical gaps in the 2007 and 2012 multiyear project plans; more detailed gap analyses were independently performed by the JRC and NREL. There have been, however, some significant advances in sensor technologies since these assessments, including the commercial availability of hydrogen sensors with fast response times (t90 less than 1 s, which had been an elusive DOE target since 2007), improved robustness to chemical poisons, improved selectivity, and improved lifetime and stability. These improvements, however, have not been universal and typically pertain to select platforms or models. Moreover, as hydrogen markets grow and new applications are being explored, more demands will be imposed on sensor performance. The hydrogen sensor laboratories at NREL and JRC are currently updating the hydrogen safety sensor gap analysis through direct interaction with international stakeholders in the hydrogen community, especially end-users. NREL and the JRC are currently organizing a series of workshops (in Europe and the U.S.) with sensor developers, end-users, and other stakeholders in 2017 to identify technology gaps and to develop a path forward to address them. One workshop is scheduled for May 10 in Brussels, Belgium at the Headquarters of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. A second workshop is planned at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO, USA. This presentation will review improvements in sensor technologies in the past 5 to 10 years, identify gaps in sensor performance and use requirements, and identify

  12. NGNP Project Regulatory Gap Analysis for Modular HTGRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wayne Moe

    2011-09-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project Regulatory Gap Analysis (RGA) for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGR) was conducted to evaluate existing regulatory requirements and guidance against the design characteristics specific to a generic modular HTGR. This final report presents results and identifies regulatory gaps concerning current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing requirements that apply to the modular HTGR design concept. This report contains appendices that highlight important HTGR licensing issues that were found during the RGA study. The information contained in this report will be used to further efforts in reconciling HTGR-related gaps in the NRC licensing structure, which has to date largely focused on light water reactor technology.

  13. Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

    2018-02-01

    We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

  14. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  15. Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: aquatic gap analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Steen, Paul J.; Lyons, John; Stewart, Jana S.

    2009-01-01

    Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest

  16. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  17. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  18. A gap analysis of meteorological requirements for commercial space operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stapleton, Nicholas James

    Commercial space companies will soon be the primary method of launching people and supplies into orbit. Among the critical aspects of space launches are the meteorological concerns. Laws and regulations pertaining to meteorological considerations have been created to ensure the safety of the space industry and those living around spaceports; but, are they adequate? Perhaps the commercial space industry can turn to the commercial aviation industry to help answer that question. Throughout its history, the aviation industry has dealt with lessons learned from mishaps due to failures in understanding the significance of weather impacts on operations. Using lessons from the aviation industry, the commercial space industry can preempt such accidents and maintain viability as an industry. Using Lanicci's Strategic Planning Model, this study identified the weather needs of the commercial space industry by conducting three gap analyses. First, a comparative analysis was done between laws and regulations in commercial aviation and those in the commercial space industry pertaining to meteorological support, finding a "legislative gap" between the two industries, as no legal guarantee is in place to ensure weather products remain available to the commercial space industry. A second analysis was conducted between the meteorological services provided for the commercial aviation industry and commercial space industry, finding a gap at facilities not located at an established launch facility or airport. At such facilities, many weather observational technologies would not be present, and would need to be purchased by the company operating the spaceport facility. A third analysis was conducted between the meteorological products and regulations that are currently in existence, and those needed for safe operations within the commercial space industry, finding gaps in predicting lightning, electric field charge, and space weather. Recommendations to address these deficiencies have

  19. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Do

    2006-01-01

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  20. Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Doan, A.; Haddawy, P.; Kahn, C. E.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines t...

  1. Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

    2014-01-01

    his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...... for amore efficient use of resources for digital curation. To facilitate and clarify the model evaluation the report first outlines a basic terminology and a generaldescription of the characteristics of cost and benefit models.The report then describes how the ten current and emerging cost and benefit...

  2. Gap Analysis Approach for Construction Safety Program Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanet Aksorn

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available To improve construction site safety, emphasis has been placed on the implementation of safety programs. In order to successfully gain from safety programs, factors that affect their improvement need to be studied. Sixteen critical success factors of safety programs were identified from safety literature, and these were validated by safety experts. This study was undertaken by surveying 70 respondents from medium- and large-scale construction projects. It explored the importance and the actual status of critical success factors (CSFs. Gap analysis was used to examine the differences between the importance of these CSFs and their actual status. This study found that the most critical problems characterized by the largest gaps were management support, appropriate supervision, sufficient resource allocation, teamwork, and effective enforcement. Raising these priority factors to satisfactory levels would lead to successful safety programs, thereby minimizing accidents.

  3. Markov decision processes and the belief-desire-intention model bridging the gap for autonomous agents

    CERN Document Server

    Simari, Gerardo I

    2011-01-01

    In this work, we provide a treatment of the relationship between two models that have been widely used in the implementation of autonomous agents: the Belief DesireIntention (BDI) model and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We start with an informal description of the relationship, identifying the common features of the two approaches and the differences between them. Then we hone our understanding of these differences through an empirical analysis of the performance of both models on the TileWorld testbed. This allows us to show that even though the MDP model displays consistently better behavior than the BDI model for small worlds, this is not the case when the world becomes large and the MDP model cannot be solved exactly. Finally we present a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the two approaches, identifying mappings that allow us to extract a set of intentions from a policy (a solution to an MDP), and to extract a policy from a set of intentions.

  4. ADMS State of the Industry and Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agalgaonkar, Yashodhan P.; Marinovici, Maria C.; Vadari, Subramanian V.; Schneider, Kevin P.; Melton, Ronald B.

    2016-03-31

    An Advanced distribution management system (ADMS) is a platform for optimized distribution system operational management. This platform comprises of distribution management system (DMS) applications, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), outage management system (OMS), and distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). One of the primary objectives of this work is to study and analyze several ADMS component and auxiliary systems. All the important component and auxiliary systems, SCADA, GISs, DMSs, AMRs/AMIs, OMSs, and DERMS, are discussed in this report. Their current generation technologies are analyzed, and their integration (or evolution) with an ADMS technology is discussed. An ADMS technology state of the art and gap analysis is also presented. There are two technical gaps observed. The integration challenge between the component operational systems is the single largest challenge for ADMS design and deployment. Another significant challenge noted is concerning essential ADMS applications, for instance, fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR), volt-var optimization (VVO), etc. There are a relatively small number of ADMS application developers as ADMS software platform is not open source. There is another critical gap and while not being technical in nature (when compared the two above) is still important to consider. The data models currently residing in utility GIS systems are either incomplete or inaccurate or both. This data is essential for planning and operations because it is typically one of the primary sources from which power system model are created. To achieve the full potential of ADMS, the ability to execute acute Power Flow solution is an important pre-requisite. These critical gaps are hindering wider Utility adoption of an ADMS technology. The development of an open architecture platform can eliminate many of these barriers and also aid seamless integration of distribution Utility legacy systems with an

  5. Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Naito, Wataru; Tanaka, Yoshinari; Kamo, Masashi

    2013-11-01

    Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Is there no gap between decision-making and science in sustainable urban planning?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tejo Spit; Rien van Stigt; Peter Driessen

    2013-01-01

    The role of expert knowledge of the environment in decision-making about urban development has been intensively debated, largely in terms of a so-called ‘science-policy gap’. Most contributions to this debate have studied the use of knowledge in the decision-making process from the knowledge

  7. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GAPS BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL ROMANIAN AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toader Valentin

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the authors will perform a comparative analysis of the impact that the population residential areas have on the economic and social activity from Romania. Our analysis will be carried out for a time span of 10 years, between 2000 and 2009. The main purposes are to emphasize the economic gaps between the residential areas (urban and rural and to identify the factors that determine these gaps. The economic differences between rural and urban areas and their impact on the peoples standard of living represent an important issue for international institutions like IFRC, UNICEF or OECD. Also, this topic represents a frequent subject in the economic literature from poor and developing countries. Studies conducted by Huong and Booth (2010, Alister, Alana and Ayele (2007, Chao, Zhidong and Mingxing (2008, Mateoc-Srb, Mateoc, Darva?i and Manescu (2008 or Sahn and Stifel (2002 are representative examples. Most of these papers focus on the living standards differences generated by the differences between income and expenditures between urban and rural areas. To achieve our goals, we will use the statistical methods to analyze the data released by the National Institute of Statistics. We will try to find some correlations between the economic indicators household incomes, value and structure of household expenditures, structure of household expenditures the social indicators residential area, education level, age and occupation. The highlight of the gaps between the rural and urban areas will be the main objective during this analysis. We conclude that in Romania there are substantial differences between rural and urban areas. The income differences are determining different consumption patterns between rural and urban persons. In rural areas, the population is spending less in all goods and services aspect that reduce their standard of living. Anyway, the results obtained are the subject of at least two possible limits. The fact that the data

  8. Digital Architecture – Results From a Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oxstrand, Johanna Helene [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thomas, Kenneth David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fitzgerald, Kirk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The digital architecture is defined as a collection of IT capabilities needed to support and integrate a wide-spectrum of real-time digital capabilities for nuclear power plant performance improvements. The digital architecture can be thought of as an integration of the separate I&C and information systems already in place in NPPs, brought together for the purpose of creating new levels of automation in NPP work activities. In some cases, it might be an extension of the current communication systems, to provide digital communications where they are currently analog only. This collection of IT capabilities must in turn be based on a set of user requirements that must be supported for the interconnected technologies to operate in an integrated manner. These requirements, simply put, are a statement of what sorts of digital work functions will be exercised in a fully-implemented seamless digital environment and how much they will be used. The goal of the digital architecture research is to develop a methodology for mapping nuclear power plant operational and support activities into the digital architecture, which includes the development of a consensus model for advanced information and control architecture. The consensus model should be developed at a level of detail that is useful to the industry. In other words, not so detailed that it specifies specific protocols and not so vague that it is only provides a high level description of technology. The next step towards the model development is to determine the current state of digital architecture at typical NPPs. To investigate the current state, the researchers conducted a gap analysis to determine to what extent the NPPs can support the future digital technology environment with their existing I&C and IT structure, and where gaps exist with respect to the full deployment of technology over time. The methodology, result, and conclusions from the gap analysis are described in this report.

  9. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

  10. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  11. Bridging the Gap: Tailor-made Information Products for Decision Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandler, B. E.; Rose, C. A.; Gonzales, L. M.; Boland, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The American Geosciences Institute (AGI) is launching a new information platform designed to link decision makers with information generated by geoscientific research. Decision makers, especially those at the state and local level, frequently need scientific information but do not always have easy access to it, while scientists create new knowledge but often lack opportunities to communicate this knowledge more broadly to the people who need it the most. Major differences in communication styles and language can also hinder the use of scientific information by decision makers. AGI is building an online portfolio of case studies and fact sheets that are based on cutting-edge research presented in a format and style that meets the needs and expectations of decision makers. Based on discussions with state and local decision makers around the country, AGI has developed a template for these products. Scientists are invited to write short (500-700-word) summaries of their research and the ways in which it provides useful tools and information to decision makers. We are particularly interested in showcasing actionable information derived from basic or applied research. Researchers are encouraged to contact AGI to discuss topics that may be an appropriate basis for case studies or fact sheets, and AGI may also contact researchers based on scientific needs identified during our discussions with decision makers. All submissions will be edited and reviewed by AGI staff and an external peer review team before being published online and made available to decision makers through AGI's Critical Issues web platform and extensive professional networks. Publicizing the results of scientific research to key legislative, regulatory, advisory, and engaged citizen groups and individuals broadens the impact of scientists' research and highlights the value and importance of the geosciences to society. By presenting the information in a format that is designed with the end-user in mind

  12. Vehicle Codes and Standards: Overview and Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blake, C.; Buttner, W.; Rivkin, C.

    2010-02-01

    This report identifies gaps in vehicle codes and standards and recommends ways to fill the gaps, focusing on six alternative fuels: biodiesel, natural gas, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, and propane.

  13. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  14. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  15. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  16. Mind the Gap: A Case Study of Values-Based Decision Making in a Nonprofit Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Jana L.

    2013-01-01

    Using an exploratory case study approach, this research examined the consistency between espoused and enacted values within a large nonprofit organization known as an ethical leader in the human services industry. This research explored ethical business culture, ethical decision making, deontological and utilitarian moral paradigms and learning…

  17. Unfolding the Intra-organisational Perception Gap in Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Shasha; Papanastassiou, Marina; Bassiakos, Yiannis

    2018-01-01

    This chapter explores the dyadic relationship between headquarters and in terms of their perceptions of decision-making loci and associated organisational structure. By comparing the responses of parents of Greek Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) and their subsidiaries, we find evidence in favour...

  18. Bridging the faultline gap : antecedents of cooperative decision-making in crossed-groups social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    De Pauw, Ann-Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Teamwork has gained increasing importance in organizations for both decision-making and production. For companies to retain a competitive advantage, more emphasis is placed on processes as creativity and social innovation where added value is created by bundling forces via cooperation in work groups. At the same time in our globalized world, these teams have become more diverse due to increasing internationalization of organizations, in operations and in workforce. Furthermore, strategic proc...

  19. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  20. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Sequence and expression analysis of gaps in human chromosome 20

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Minocherhomji, Sheroy; Seemann, Stefan; Mang, Yuan

    2012-01-01

    /or overlap disease-associated loci, including the DLGAP4 locus. In this study, we sequenced ~99% of all three unfinished gaps on human chr 20, determined their complete genomic sizes and assessed epigenetic profiles using a combination of Sanger sequencing, mate pair paired-end high-throughput sequencing......The finished human genome-assemblies comprise several hundred un-sequenced euchromatic gaps, which may be rich in long polypurine/polypyrimidine stretches. Human chromosome 20 (chr 20) currently has three unfinished gaps remaining on its q-arm. All three gaps are within gene-dense regions and...

  2. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  3. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, C.; Sweet, T.; Borison, A.

    1991-01-01

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  4. Sustainable Water Infrastructure Asset Management: A Gap Analysis of Customer and Service Provider Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangjong Han

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The ultimate goal of urban water infrastructure asset management may be sustainable water supply with satisfaction for customers. In this work, we attempted to evaluate the gaps between the perspectives of customers and service providers in Korea’s water infrastructure asset management. To evaluate the customers’ perspective, a hierarchical questionnaire survey was conducted to estimate the weights of influence for six customer values and their attributes on Korean water utility management. To evaluate the service providers’ perspective, an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis was performed to estimate the weights of influence for the customer values and their PIs (performance indicators. The gap analysis results show that customers place higher value on customer service satisfaction (emotion and information than do the service providers (managers, whereas the managers place more value on affordability than do the customers. The findings from this work imply that improving customer service is effective in satisfying the desirable water LOS (level of service for customers. Recommendations have also been provided for administrators and engineers to develop integrated decision-making systems that can reflect customer needs regarding the improvement of their water infrastructure asset management. The findings from this work may be helpful for the Korean government and water supply utilities in improving the sustainability of their water infrastructure asset management.

  5. Choosing between two semi-finalists: On academic performance gap, sex category, and decision question.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foschi, Martha; Valenzuela, Jerilee

    2015-11-01

    We use an application-files experimental design to investigate a new topic in the assessment of candidates for junior-engineering jobs. Our focus is on two semi-finalists, a man and a woman, who show clearly different but still good levels of academic record. We keep the gap between those levels constant, but vary the sex category of the better performer. We also include control conditions in which the two have similar records. Each assessor's task was to choose either one applicant or neither, and to rate both in competence and suitability. The control-group competence ratings indicate no gender bias by either men or women; the experimental-conditions competence data are consistent with the candidates' records as predicted, but also show women minimizing the record of the better-performing male candidate. Choice and suitability, on the other hand, reveal a preference for the female applicant across respondents and conditions, as anticipated given the more open nature of those two questions, while still reflecting the academic records. Findings and their interpretation are presented in detail. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Skill gap analysis and training needs in Indian aerospace industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Premkumar Balaraman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The main objective of the paper is on assessing the global aerospace industry as well as Indian scenario, and attempts to assess the skill gaps and training needs of Indian aerospace industry.  Design/methodology/approach: The study is qualitative in nature, and employs wide array of qualitative tools which includes desktop study, focus group interviews and secondary sources of information. Around 10 focus groups were used in the study, with each focus group having a minimum of 6 members of experts in the aerospace and allied industries. The study evolved into a 2 staged one, with the first study elucidating the growing importance and potential of aerospace industry, justifying the significance to take forward the second part of the study. And the second study specifically focuses on skill gaps and training needs. Findings and Originality/value: The Study yields varied results on existing generic expectations of aerospace industry, specific needs of aerospace industry, identification of aerospace job categories unique to aerospace industry, key issues of training in Indian scenario and recommendations. The paper in summary reflects the current scenario of aerospace industry potentials for India and its likely impact on skills gap and training needs. Practical implications: Skills gap is a significant gap between an organization’s current capabilities and the skills it needs to achieve its goals. As a number of Global forecasts project, India as an emerging aviation market, the skill gaps in this sector is predicted to be huge and necessitates the study on assessing the skill gaps and its allied training needs. Originality/value: The Study is highly original and first one of its kind in reflecting the current situation of the skills gap and training needs in Indian Aerospace industry. The focus group interviews were conducted with the experts at various levels in the industyr without any bias yielding valid and realtime data for the

  7. A Comparative Analysis of the Nativity Wealth Gap

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas K. Bauer,; Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Vincent Hildebrand; Mathias Sinning

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the source of the gap in the relative wealth position of immigrant households residing in Australia, Germany and the United States. Our results indicate that in Germany and the United States wealth differentials are largely the result of disparity in the educational attainment and demographic composition of the native and immigrant populations, while income differentials are relatively unimportant in understanding the nativity wealth gap. In contrast, the relatively sm...

  8. A Comparative Analysis of the Nativity Wealth Gap

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas K. Bauer; Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Vincent A. Hildebrand; Mathias Sinning

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the source of the gap in the relative wealth position of immigrant households residing in Australia, Germany and the United States. Our results indicate that in German and the United States wealth differentials are largely the result of disparity in the educational attainment and demographic composition of the native and immigrant populations, while income differentials are relatively unimportant in understanding the nativity wealth gap. In contrast, the relatively sma...

  9. A comparative analysis of the nativity wealth gap

    OpenAIRE

    Bauer, Thomas K.; Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Hildebrand, Vincent A.; Sinning, Mathias

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the source of the gap in the relative wealth position of immigrant households residing in Australia, Germany and the United States. Our results indicate that in Germany and the United States wealth differentials are largely the result of disparity in the educational attainment and demographic composition of the native and immigrant populations, while income differentials are relatively unimportant in understanding the nativity wealth gap. In contrast, the relatively sm...

  10. A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Aindrila

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

  11. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  12. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  13. Gap Analysis between Students' Perceptions and Expectations of Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Abbasian

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Backgrounds and Objectives: Assessing the educational services provided for students and determining the gap between the current status and the expected status can pave the way for developing programs to promote the quality of educational services. This study was performed aiming at determining the quality of educational services in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences in 2010.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 274 students of Shahroud University of Medical Sciences were selected by random sampling method. The data were collected using SERVQUAL standard questionnaire. The 27-question questionnaire included two sections of demographic data and five-dimension educational services quality, which was completed as self-administered. The data were analyzed through independent samples t-test, paired samples t-test, and one-way ANOVA.Results: There were quality gaps in all dimensions of educational services quality and the statements to assess them. The biggest quality gap was in the responsiveness dimension (-1.45, and the lowest gap was in the reliability dimension (-1.14. The mean gap scores in female students were higher than male students in all five dimensions of educational services quality, and this difference were statistically significant (p<0.001.Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the students’ expectations are not fulfilled in all service dimensions. Therefore, responsiveness, customer-orientation, improvement of work processes and physical spaces, and paying attention to other dimensions could play a key role in promoting the quality of educational services.

  14. The gender health gap in China: A decomposition analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Bago d'Uva, Teresa; van Doorslaer, Eddy

    2015-07-01

    Around the world, and in spite of their higher life expectancy, women tend to report worse health than men until old age. Explanations for this gender gap in self-perceived health may be different in China than in other countries due to the traditional phenomenon of son preference. We examine several possible reasons for the gap using the Chinese SAGE data. We first rule out differential reporting by gender as a possible explanation, exploiting information on anchoring vignettes in eight domains of health functioning. Decomposing the gap in general self-assessed health, we find that about 31% can be explained by socio-demographic factors, most of all by discrimination against women in education in the 20th century. A more complete specification including chronic conditions and health functioning fully explains the remainder of the gap (about 69%). Adding chronic conditions and health functioning also explains at least two thirds of the education contribution, suggesting how education may affect health. In particular, women's higher rates of arthritis, angina and eye diseases make the largest contributions to the gender health gap, by limiting mobility, increasing pain and discomfort, and causing sleep problems and a feeling of low energy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

    2017-09-13

    The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

  16. Decision Analysis in the U.S. Army’s Capabilties Needs Analysis: Applications of Decision Analysis Methods to Capabilities Resource Allocation and Capabilities Development Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    value functions and their scales; the use of a modified Delphi method to refine the analysis results; and the implementation of an open architecture web...Decision Analysis; value analysis; value model; Multi-attribute Decision Making (MADM); Swing Weighting; Value functions; Delphi method 16. SECURITY...solution approaches. Once analyst made initial assessments a refinement process using a modified Delphi method enabled final recommendations that

  17. Extrapulmonary tuberculosis among females in South Asia—gap analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaishri Mehraj

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The percentage of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB among new and relapse tuberculosis cases in South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh ranged from 19% to 23% in 2014. While tuberculosis was reportedly more prevalent in males, a higher preponderance of EPTB was observed in females. National tuberculosis control programs are highly focused on pulmonary tuberculosis. This creates gaps in the surveillance, diagnosis, and study of EPTB among females, which is especially pronounced in the South Asian setting. We have reviewed recently published literatures from January 2010 to June 2016 reporting EPTB in females with a view to evaluate the current epidemiology, risk factors, diagnostic modalities, and treatment outcomes. We report significant gaps in the surveillance of EPTB among women in South Asia, emphasizing the need for greater focus on EPTB in females to overcome current surveillance and knowledge gaps.

  18. Analysis of photonic band gap in novel piezoelectric photonic crystal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malar Kodi, A.; Doni Pon, V.; Joseph Wilson, K. S.

    2018-03-01

    The transmission properties of one-dimensional novel photonic crystal having silver-doped novel piezoelectric superlattice and air as the two constituent layers have been investigated by means of transfer matrix method. By changing the appropriate thickness of the layers and filling factor of nanocomposite system, the variation in the photonic band gap can be studied. It is found that the photonic band gap increases with the filling factor of the metal nanocomposite and with the thickness of the layer. These structures possess unique characteristics enabling one to operate as optical waveguides, selective filters, optical switches, integrated piezoelectric microactuators, etc.

  19. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals and Supply and Demand Gap Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims to forecast the long term behavior of tourist arrivals and analyze the gap between supply and demand for the hotel/accommodation sector of the city of Addis Ababa. It also intends to provide vital information in regards to the sparse knowledge in the subject of forecasting tourist arrivals in Ethiopia.

  20. An Equilibrium Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    This paper develops a theory of the gender wage gap. In a general equilibrium model, spouses devide their labor between a formal sector and a home sector. Due to indivisibility effects, productivity of labor in the formal sector is negatively related to labor used in the home; at the same time...

  1. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  2. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  3. Service Quality : (Service Gap Analysis) A case study - "Komvux"

    OpenAIRE

    Sultana, Sarmin; Rana, Shohel

    2010-01-01

    The customer‘s standard of living and consciousness is demanding the importance of service quality. Service quality is mandatory to provide added value to the customers, retain and make loyal customers. This paper focuses on the customer expectation, customer perception and the gap between customer expectation and perception to measure the service quality. We have analyzed the service quality which has a great impact on customer satisfaction.

  4. On assessing the robustness of an input signal optimization algorithm for damage detection: the Info-Gap Decision Theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stull C.J.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT is here adopted to assess the robust- ness of a technique aimed at identifying the optimal excitation signal within a structural health monitoring (SHM procedure. Given limited system response measurements and ever-present physical limits on the level of excitation, the ultimate goal of the mentioned technique is to improve the detectability of the damage increasing the difference between measurable outputs of the undamaged and damaged system. In particular, a 2 DOF mass-spring-damper system characterized by the presence of a nonlinear stiffness is considered. Uncertainty is introduced within the system under the form of deviations of its parameters (mass, stiffness, damping ratio… from their nominal values. Variations in the performance of the mentioned technique are then evaluated both in terms of changes in the estimated difference between the responses of the damaged and undamaged system and in terms of deviations of the identified optimal input signal from its nominal estimation. Finally, plots of the performances of the analyzed algorithm for different levels of uncertainty are obtained, showing which parameters are more sensitive to the presence of uncertainty and thus enabling a clear evaluation of its robustness.

  5. Communication gap analysis of the availability of tourism related ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper assesses the availability of tourism related information on the Ghana's tourism to visitors' from the UK, the USA and Germany. The discrepancy approach which relates the expected (basic information to make effective travel decisions) to the actual situation (actual travel information available for planning a trip) ...

  6. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 3 - vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. In this paper, we report updated findings in the field of FMD vaccine research. This paper consists of the following four sections: 1) Research priorities identified in the 2010 GFRA gap ana...

  7. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  8. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  9. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipley, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  10. Multivariate Analysis of Household Decision Making, Contraceptive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the effect of household decision making on the use of contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. Men's Recode Dataset of 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) dataset was used. A sample size of 8,981 ever married men aged 15-49 were analyzed using ...

  11. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that higher waged women schedule births later in life compared to lower waged women. Furthermore, the effects of a household's financial wealth on the female employment and fertility decisions is investigat...

  12. Bridging the gaps for global sustainable development: a quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Victor E; Jansson, Peter Mark

    2009-09-01

    Global human progress occurs in a complex web of interactions between society, technology and the environment as driven by governance and infrastructure management capacity among nations. In our globalizing world, this complex web of interactions over the last 200 years has resulted in the chronic widening of economic and political gaps between the haves and the have-nots with consequential global cultural and ecosystem challenges. At the bottom of these challenges is the issue of resource limitations on our finite planet with increasing population. The problem is further compounded by pleasure-driven and poverty-driven ecological depletion and pollution by the haves and the have-nots respectively. These challenges are explored in this paper as global sustainable development (SD) quantitatively; in order to assess the gaps that need to be bridged. Although there has been significant rhetoric on SD with very many qualitative definitions offered, very few quantitative definitions of SD exist. The few that do exist tend to measure SD in terms of social, energy, economic and environmental dimensions. In our research, we used several human survival, development, and progress variables to create an aggregate SD parameter that describes the capacity of nations in three dimensions: social sustainability, environmental sustainability and technological sustainability. Using our proposed quantitative definition of SD and data from relatively reputable secondary sources, 132 nations were ranked and compared. Our comparisons indicate a global hierarchy of needs among nations similar to Maslow's at the individual level. As in Maslow's hierarchy of needs, nations that are struggling to survive are less concerned with environmental sustainability than advanced and stable nations. Nations such as the United States, Canada, Finland, Norway and others have higher SD capacity, and thus, are higher on their hierarchy of needs than nations such as Nigeria, Vietnam, Mexico and other

  13. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  14. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

  15. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

  16. Analysis of photonic band-gap structures in stratified medium

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Ming-Sze; Yinchao, Chen; Lu, Yilong

    2005-01-01

    Purpose - To demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of a non-uniform pseudo-spectral time domain (nu-PSTD) method through studies of the wave propagation characteristics on photonic band-gap (PBG) structures in stratified medium Design/methodology/approach - A nu-PSTD method is proposed...... in solving the Maxwell's equations numerically. It expands the temporal derivatives using the finite differences, while it adopts the Fourier transform (FT) properties to expand the spatial derivatives in Maxwell's equations. In addition, the method makes use of the chain-rule property in calculus together...... with the transformed space technique in order to make the algorithm flexible in terms of non-uniform spatial sampling. Findings - Through the studies of the wave propagation characteristics on PBG structures in stratified medium, it has been found that the proposed method retains excellent accuracy in the occasions...

  17. Molten Carbonate and Phosphoric Acid Stationary Fuel Cells: Overview and Gap Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Remick, R.; Wheeler, D.

    2010-09-01

    This report describes the technical and cost gap analysis performed to identify pathways for reducing the costs of molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) and phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) stationary fuel cell power plants.

  18. A Capstone Project Using the Gap Analysis Model: Closing the College Readiness Gap for Latino English Language Learners with a Focus on School Support and School Counseling Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Evelyn

    2013-01-01

    This capstone project applied Clark and Estes' (2008) gap analysis framework to identify performance gaps, develop perceived root causes, validate the causes, and formulate research-based solutions to present to Trojan High School. The purpose was to examine ways to increase the academic achievement of ELL students, specifically Latinos, by…

  19. Implementing Second-Order Decision Analysis: Concepts, Algorithms, and Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aron Larsson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present implemented concepts and algorithms for a simulation approach to decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions in a common framework for interval decision analysis. The rationale behind this work is that decision analysis with interval-valued probabilities and utilities may lead to overlapping expected utility intervals yielding difficulties in discriminating between alternatives. By allowing for second-order belief distributions over interval-valued utility and probability statements these difficulties may not only be remedied but will also allow for decision evaluation concepts and techniques providing additional insight into a decision problem. The approach is based upon sets of linear constraints together with generation of random probability distributions and utility values from implicitly stated uniform second-order belief distributions over the polytopes given from the constraints. The result is an interactive method for decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions, complementing earlier methods for decision evaluation with interval-valued probabilities and utilities. The method has been implemented for trial use in a user oriented decision analysis software.

  20. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuelle Bélanger

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1 exposing uncertainty, (2 co-constructing patient preferences, (3 affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4 upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to

  1. A retrospective analysis of glycol and toxic alcohol ingestion: utility of anion and osmolal gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasowski Matthew D

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients ingesting ethylene glycol, isopropanol, methanol, and propylene glycol ('toxic alcohols' often present with non-specific signs and symptoms. Definitive diagnosis of toxic alcohols has traditionally been by gas chromatography (GC, a technique not commonly performed on-site in hospital clinical laboratories. The objectives of this retrospective study were: 1 to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the osmolal gap in screening for toxic alcohol ingestion and 2 to determine the common reasons other than toxic alcohol ingestion for elevated osmolal gaps. Methods Electronic medical records from an academic tertiary care medical center were searched to identify all patients in the time period from January 1, 1996 to September 1, 2010 who had serum/plasma ethanol, glucose, sodium, blood urea nitrogen, and osmolality measured simultaneously, and also all patients who had GC analysis for toxic alcohols. Detailed chart review was performed on all patients with osmolal gap of 9 or greater. Results In the study period, 20,669 patients had determination of serum/plasma ethanol and osmolal gap upon presentation to the hospitals. There were 341 patients with an osmolal gap greater than 14 (including correction for estimated contribution of ethanol on initial presentation to the medical center. Seventy-seven patients tested positive by GC for one or more toxic alcohols; all had elevated anion gap or osmolal gap or both. Other than toxic alcohols, the most common causes for an elevated osmolal gap were recent heavy ethanol consumption with suspected alcoholic ketoacidosis, renal failure, shock, and recent administration of mannitol. Only 9 patients with osmolal gap greater than 50 and no patients with osmolal gap greater than 100 were found to be negative for toxic alcohols. Conclusions Our study concurs with other investigations that show that osmolal gap can be a useful diagnostic test in conjunction with clinical history and physical

  2. Analysis of gender gaps in profession, career and pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela PASNICU

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Gender issues and concerns about its incorporation into all Community and national policies enjoy attention, both on the agenda of decision makers from the European Union and the Member States. Moreover, equality between women and men is one of the fundamental principles contained in the Charter of fundamental rights and at the same time, is also one of the founding principles of the EU, because it is based on the principle of “equal pay for equal work” stipulated in the Economics Community Treaty from Rome. The results presented in this article are based on questionnaire-based survey, conducted in ProFeminAntrep project financed on ESF, at national level, which included a sample of 3,200 respondents.

  3. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1991-01-01

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  4. A gap analysis methodology for collecting crop genepools: a case study with phaseolus beans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julián Ramírez-Villegas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The wild relatives of crops represent a major source of valuable traits for crop improvement. These resources are threatened by habitat destruction, land use changes, and other factors, requiring their urgent collection and long-term availability for research and breeding from ex situ collections. We propose a method to identify gaps in ex situ collections (i.e. gap analysis of crop wild relatives as a means to guide efficient and effective collecting activities. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The methodology prioritizes among taxa based on a combination of sampling, geographic, and environmental gaps. We apply the gap analysis methodology to wild taxa of the Phaseolus genepool. Of 85 taxa, 48 (56.5% are assigned high priority for collecting due to lack of, or under-representation, in genebanks, 17 taxa are given medium priority for collecting, 15 low priority, and 5 species are assessed as adequately represented in ex situ collections. Gap "hotspots", representing priority target areas for collecting, are concentrated in central Mexico, although the narrow endemic nature of a suite of priority species adds a number of specific additional regions to spatial collecting priorities. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Results of the gap analysis method mostly align very well with expert opinion of gaps in ex situ collections, with only a few exceptions. A more detailed prioritization of taxa and geographic areas for collection can be achieved by including in the analysis predictive threat factors, such as climate change or habitat destruction, or by adding additional prioritization filters, such as the degree of relatedness to cultivated species (i.e. ease of use in crop breeding. Furthermore, results for multiple crop genepools may be overlaid, which would allow a global analysis of gaps in ex situ collections of the world's plant genetic resources.

  5. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  6. Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

    2016-09-01

    Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Customer Satisfaction Measurement: an empirical Study of the Need – Gap Analysis in the Service Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Upadhyaya

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Need-Gap analysis determines deviations between actual and expected quality, taking corrective action. The analysis indicates the presence of multi-dimensional aspects regarding a complaining behavior. Critical analysis of results helps to evolve service strategies in response to customer needs.

  8. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  9. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    1 Introduction The most common methodology applied so far to the evaluation of transport systems has been conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Janic, 2003), which supported by traffic- and impact model calculations provides the decision-makers with a monetary assessment of the project...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...

  11. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  12. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  13. Can Streamlined Multicriteria Decision Analysis Be Used to Implement Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, James G; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F

    2014-08-01

    Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established method well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine whether a streamlined form of MCDA using rank-order-based judgments can accurately assess patients' colorectal cancer screening priorities. We converted priorities for 4 decision criteria and 3 subcriteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average-risk patients using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a prior study into rank-order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the 2 sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and nonparametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank-order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing 3 currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Correlations between the 2 sets of priorities for the 7 criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of differences between rank-order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ±0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal, and the relative rankings of the 3 screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Rank-order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. © The Author(s) 2013.

  14. Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decision-making framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Wagner, Monika; Khoury, Hanane; Rindress, Donna; Grégoire, Jean-Pierre; Deal, Cheri

    2010-04-08

    To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH) for Turner syndrome (TS) as a complex case study. The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics), with a qualitative tool including six ethical and health system-related components of decision. An extensive review of the literature was performed to develop a health technology assessment report (HTA) tailored to each component of decision, and content was validated by experts. A panel of representative stakeholders then estimated the MCDA value of GH for TS in Canada by assigning weights and scores to each MCDA component of decision and then considered the impact of non-quantifiable components of decision. Applying the framework revealed significant data gaps and the importance of aligning research questions with data needs to truly inform decision. Panelists estimated the value of GH for TS at 41% of maximum value on the MCDA scale, with good agreement at the individual level (retest value 40%; ICC: 0.687) and large variation across panelists. Main contributors to this panel specific value were "Improvement of efficacy", "Disease severity" and "Quality of evidence". Ethical considerations on utility, efficiency and fairness as well as potential misuse of GH had mixed effects on the perceived value of the treatment. This framework is proposed as a pragmatic step beyond the current cost-effectiveness model, combining HTA, MCDA, values and ethics. It supports systematic consideration of all components of decision and available evidence for greater transparency. Further testing and validation is needed to build up MCDA approaches combined with pragmatic HTA in healthcare decision-making.

  15. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  16. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  17. Mapping moderate-scale land-cover over very large geographic areas within a collaborative framework: A case study of the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, J.; Ramsey, R.D.; Thomas, K.; Schrupp, D.; Sajwaj, T.; Kirby, J.; Waller, E.; Schrader, S.; Falzarano, S.; Langs, L.; Manis, G.; Wallace, C.; Schulz, K.; Comer, P.; Pohs, K.; Rieth, W.; Velasquez, C.; Wolk, B.; Kepner, W.; Boykin, K.; O'Brien, L.; Bradford, D.; Thompson, B.; Prior-Magee, J.

    2007-01-01

    Land-cover mapping efforts within the USGS Gap Analysis Program have traditionally been state-centered; each state having the responsibility of implementing a project design for the geographic area within their state boundaries. The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) was the first formal GAP project designed at a regional, multi-state scale. The project area comprises the southwestern states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The land-cover map/dataset was generated using regionally consistent geospatial data (Landsat ETM+ imagery (1999-2001) and DEM derivatives), similar field data collection protocols, a standardized land-cover legend, and a common modeling approach (decision tree classifier). Partitioning of mapping responsibilities amongst the five collaborating states was organized around ecoregion-based "mapping zones". Over the course of 21/2 field seasons approximately 93,000 reference samples were collected directly, or obtained from other contemporary projects, for the land-cover modeling effort. The final map was made public in 2004 and contains 125 land-cover classes. An internal validation of 85 of the classes, representing 91% of the land area was performed. Agreement between withheld samples and the validated dataset was 61% (KHAT = .60, n = 17,030). This paper presents an overview of the methodologies used to create the regional land-cover dataset and highlights issues associated with large-area mapping within a coordinated, multi-institutional management framework. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Final report : Occupational gap analysis, volume 2 Wood Buffalo region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-06-01

    The general economy of the Wood Buffalo region of Alberta has improved in recent years due to the expansion of the oil sand industry. Many of the oil sands projects are situated in the southern part of the region and are serviced out of Lac LaBiche. This paper examines the implications of this economic growth for the regional supply and demand of workers in key occupational categories. In particular, it projects employment opportunities that are directly attributed to the regional economic expansion, and assesses whether there will be an adequate supply of workers to meet the demand for new and replacement employees. The report includes: an overview of the regional economy; a population forecast for the region and the demand for workers in selected occupations; an analysis of whether or not the new labour force entrants will choose the selected occupations; and, a supply and demand analysis. 7 tabs., 2 figs., 5 appendices

  19. An introduction to clinical decision analysis in ophthalmology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korah Sanita

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Ophthalmologists are often confronted with difficult clinical management problems. In such cases, even published experience may be limited; consequently multiple, generally unproven management options are usually available. When placed in such situations, most of us decide on the most appropriate course of action based on intuition or (limited previous experience. In this article, we use examples to introduce the concept of decision analysis, a method of generating objective decisions for complex clinical problems.

  20. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

    2000-01-01

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  1. Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG): An integrated case-control analysis pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Derek J; Marin, Wesley; Hollenbach, Jill A; Mack, Steven J

    2016-03-01

    Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data-Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG) is an integrated data-analysis pipeline designed for the standardized analysis of highly-polymorphic genetic data, specifically for the HLA and KIR genetic systems. Most modern genetic analysis programs are designed for the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms, but the highly polymorphic nature of HLA and KIR data require specialized methods of data analysis. BIGDAWG performs case-control data analyses of highly polymorphic genotype data characteristic of the HLA and KIR loci. BIGDAWG performs tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, calculates allele frequencies and bins low-frequency alleles for k×2 and 2×2 chi-squared tests, and calculates odds ratios, confidence intervals and p-values for each allele. When multi-locus genotype data are available, BIGDAWG estimates user-specified haplotypes and performs the same binning and statistical calculations for each haplotype. For the HLA loci, BIGDAWG performs the same analyses at the individual amino-acid level. Finally, BIGDAWG generates figures and tables for each of these comparisons. BIGDAWG obviates the error-prone reformatting needed to traffic data between multiple programs, and streamlines and standardizes the data-analysis process for case-control studies of highly polymorphic data. BIGDAWG has been implemented as the bigdawg R package and as a free web application at bigdawg.immunogenomics.org. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. The Success of Linear Bootstrapping Models: Decision Domain-, Expertise-, and Criterion-Specific Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Esther; Wittmann, Werner W.

    2016-01-01

    The success of bootstrapping or replacing a human judge with a model (e.g., an equation) has been demonstrated in Paul Meehl’s (1954) seminal work and bolstered by the results of several meta-analyses. To date, however, analyses considering different types of meta-analyses as well as the potential dependence of bootstrapping success on the decision domain, the level of expertise of the human judge, and the criterion for what constitutes an accurate decision have been missing from the literature. In this study, we addressed these research gaps by conducting a meta-analysis of lens model studies. We compared the results of a traditional (bare-bones) meta-analysis with findings of a meta-analysis of the success of bootstrap models corrected for various methodological artifacts. In line with previous studies, we found that bootstrapping was more successful than human judgment. Furthermore, bootstrapping was more successful in studies with an objective decision criterion than in studies with subjective or test score criteria. We did not find clear evidence that the success of bootstrapping depended on the decision domain (e.g., education or medicine) or on the judge’s level of expertise (novice or expert). Correction of methodological artifacts increased the estimated success of bootstrapping, suggesting that previous analyses without artifact correction (i.e., traditional meta-analyses) may have underestimated the value of bootstrapping models. PMID:27327085

  3. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  4. Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

    1994-01-01

    To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

  5. Use of multidimensional analysis for farm decision making following ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Use of multidimensional analysis for farm decision making following performance of five cowpea varieties on a farmer's field. ... The growth parameters were fitted to a multiple (step add-delete) regression model with cowpea yield as the response variable. The analysis showed that the growth parameter contributed in some ...

  6. TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

    2016-01-01

    In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

  7. Major issues in threat analysis and resolving such problems: an addendum to the GAP analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.D. Surasinghe

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Identification of regions that warrant conservation attention is a top priority among global environmental concerns. Conventionally, this objective was achieved via recognizing natural landscapes based on the number of IUCN Red Listed species, percentage of endemism and species diversity. A recent innovation in conservation biology is the use of GIS-based threat analysis models to identify key areas of conservation importance. Compared with GAP Analysis, which only identifies biodiversity-rich unprotected lands, threat analysis serves as a rigorous tool in conservation planning which specifically recognizes threats and habitat suitability to different taxa based on a spatially-explicit analysis. Threat analysis is a highly flexible process which involves building up a model with multiple independent (without autocorrelations variables that both positively and negatively affect distribution and population persistence of a concerned species. Parameters include rate of land-use change, population density, population growth rate, land management regimes, protection status, habitat suitability and land stewardship. Threat analysis models can be used to understand the current status of a particular species (or a community and can be used to project future trends about the species under consideration. This publication provides an overview of uses of GIS-based threat analyses in conservation biology and provides insights on the limitations of these models and the directions that should be taken in future.

  8. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

  9. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carbajo, Juan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN); Jeong, Hae-Yong (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea); Wigeland, Roald (Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID); Corradini, Michael (University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI); Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Wei, Tom (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Sofu, Tanju (Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL); Ludewig, Hans (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY); Tobita, Yoshiharu (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Ohshima, Hiroyuki (Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki-ken, Japan); Serre, Frederic (Centre d' %C3%94etudes nucl%C3%94eaires de Cadarache %3CU%2B2013%3E CEA, France)

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  10. Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. Methods An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers’ knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. Results The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer’s costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic

  11. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  12. A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hametz, Mark E.; Beaver, Brian A.

    2012-01-01

    A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this

  13. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

    1992-01-01

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  14. Improved gap filling method based on singular spectrum analysis and its application in space environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiangzhen; Liu, Shuai; Li, Zhi; Gong, Jiancun

    2017-11-01

    Data missing is a common phenomenon in the space environment measurements, which impacts or even blocks the following model-building procedures, predictions and posterior analysis. To fill these data gaps, an improved filling method based on iterative singular spectrum analysis is proposed. It first extracts a distribution array of the gaps and then fills the gaps with all known data. The distribution array is utilized to generate the test sets for cross validation. The embedding window length and principal components are determined by the discrete particle swarm optimization algorithm in a noncontinuous fashion. The effectiveness and adaptability of the filling method are proved by some tests done on solar wind data and geomagnetic indices from different solar activity years.

  15. 2014-2015 Partnership accomplishments report on joint activities: National Gap Analysis Program and LANDFIRE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Anne; McKerrow, Alexa; Long, Don; Earnhardt, Todd

    2015-01-01

    The intended target audience for this document initially is management and project technical specialist and scientists involved in the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - (LANDFIRE) program to help communicate coordination activities to all involved parties. This document is also intended to give background information in other parts of the USGS and beyond, although some details given are relatively oriented to management of the respective programs. Because the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - LANDFIRE programs both rely on characterizations of land cover using similar scales and resolutions, the programs have been coordinating their work to improve scientific consistency and efficiency of production. Initial discussions and informal sharing of ideas and work began in 2008. Although this collaboration was fruitful, there was no formal process for reporting results, plans, or outstanding issues, nor was there any formally-defined coordinated management team that spanned the two programs. In 2012, leadership from the two programs agreed to strengthen the coordination of their respective work efforts. In 2013 the GAP and LANDFIRE programs developed an umbrella plan of objectives and components related to three mutual focus areas for the GAP and LANDFIRE collaboration for the years 2013 and 2014 (GAP/LANDFIRE 2013). The evolution of this partnership resulted in the drafting of an inter-program Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2014. This MOU identified three coordination topics relevant to the two programs participating at this point in the MOU history: Vegetation mappingDisturbance classesFormal quality assessment

  16. Gap Analysis of Storage Conditions between NNSS and LANL for SAVY 4000 Use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reeves, Kirk Patrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Paul Herrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stone, Timothy Amos [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Becker, Chandler Gus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karns, Tristan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Veirs, Douglas Kirk [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-25

    As part of the gap analysis for utilizing the SAVY 4000® at NNSS, the hydrogen gas generation rate and the effect of atmospheric pressure changes on the maximum normal operating pressure (MNOP) of the SAVY container must be evaluated because the nuclear material characteristics and atmospheric conditions will not be the same for NNSS and LANL. This paper documents this analysis and demonstrates that the LANL SAVY Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is bounding with respect to the Nevada facilities.

  17. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  18. An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Li Meng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

  19. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

  1. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    1991-09-01

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  2. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  3. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Gwenan M; Dharan, Nila J; Fox, Gregory J; Stennis, Natalie; Zwerling, Alice; Khurana, Renuka; Dowdy, David W

    2016-01-01

    The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy), the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 6 - immunology

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. This has been updated with findings reported in a series of papers. Here we present findings for FMD immunology research. The paper consists of the following four sections: 1. Research prior...

  5. Bridging the Rural-Urban Literacy Gap in China: A Mediation Analysis of Family Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingying; Li, Hui; Wang, Dan

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the effects of family involvement on the literacy gap between rural and urban Chinese primary students via mediation analysis. Altogether, 1080 students in Grades 1, 3, and 5 were randomly sampled from three urban and three rural primary schools from Shandong and Guizhou Provinces, representing eastern and western China,…

  6. State Civic Education Policy: Framework and Gap Analysis Tool. Special Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Paul; Brennan, Jan

    2017-01-01

    The civic education policy framework and gap analysis tool are intended to guide state leaders as they address the complexities of preparing students for college, career and civic life. They allow for adaptation to state- and site-specific circumstances and may be adopted in whole or in piecemeal fashion, according to states' individual…

  7. A Gap Analysis of Employee Satisfaction within the National Parks: Anuenue National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bryan Daniel Kwai Sun

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing Clark and Estes' (2008) Gap Analysis Model, the purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge, motivation, and organization causes of and solutions for low employee satisfaction ratings at one particular park, referred to by its pseudonym, Anuenue (Hawaiian word for "Rainbow," and pronounced "Ah-noo-ay-noo-ay")…

  8. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

  9. Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 7 - pathogenesis and molecular biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    In 2014, the GFRA (Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance) conducted a gap analysis of FMD (Foot-and-Mouth Disease) research. This work has been updated and reported in a series of papers, in this article we report findings in the fields of 1) pathogenesis and 2) molecular biology. The arti...

  10. Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine?- Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Bm, Berman

    2012-10-01

    In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of the best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than the evidence generated by traditional randomized controlled trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on comparative effectiveness is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

  11. [Which research is needed to support clinical decision-making on integrative medicine? Can comparative effectiveness research close the gap?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Claudia M; Huang, Wen-jing; Lao, Lixing; Berman, Brian M

    2013-08-01

    In clinical research on complementary and integrative medicine, experts and scientists have often pursued a research agenda in spite of an incomplete understanding of the needs of end users. Consequently, the majority of previous clinical trials have mainly assessed the efficacy of interventions. Scant data is available on their effectiveness. Comparative effectiveness research (CER) promises to support decision makers by generating evidence that compares the benefits and harms of best care options. This evidence, more generalizable than evidence generated by traditional randomized clinical trials (RCTs), is better suited to inform real-world care decisions. An emphasis on CER supports the development of the evidence base for clinical and policy decision-making. Whereas in most areas of complementary and integrative medicine data on CER is scarce, available acupuncture research already contributes to CER evidence. This paper will introduce CER and make suggestions for future research.

  12. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  13. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  14. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  15. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farmer, Mitchell T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bunt, R. [Southern Nuclear, Atlanta, GA (United States); Corradini, M. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul B. [GE Power and Water, Duluth, GA (United States); Francis, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gabor, John D. [Erin Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Gauntt, R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Linthicum, R. [Exelon Corp., Chicago, IL (United States); Luangdilok, W. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Lutz, R. [PWR Owners Group (PWROG); Paik, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Plys, M. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rempe, J. [Rempe and Associates LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Robb, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wachowiak, R. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knovville, TN (United States)

    2015-01-31

    The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

  17. Operation And Maintenance In Facilities Management Practices: A Gap Analysis In Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zawawi Zuraihana Ahmad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Facilities management in Malaysia has started as early as 1990s during the development of mega projects such as Putrajaya in 1999 [8, 9]. During this period, Malaysia was introduced to an integrated property management and maintenance services known as facilities management. However, its implementation according to the standard practice is still being disputed. The purpose of facilities management standard practices is to provide the facility management profession with a leading reference on facilities management activities and standards. Therefore, the determination of how far the gap in FM current practice is essential to help our FM industry. Thus, the aim of this study is to establish the gap between the current practices and the standard practices and also how far the gap should be satisfied. A set of questionnaire was designed upon literature and previous research done to gather the required information. The study is subjected to FM organizations in private sectors and only the personnel at management level are assessed. There were certified that most of the practices that assessed by means of gap analysis had an acceptable result which the gap between the current practices and the standard practices are not too far.

  18. A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

    2018-01-01

    In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

  19. Fit Gap Analysis – The Role of Business Process Reference Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejan Pajk

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Enterprise resource planning (ERP systems support solutions for standard business processes such as financial, sales, procurement and warehouse. In order to improve the understandability and efficiency of their implementation, ERP vendors have introduced reference models that describe the processes and underlying structure of an ERP system. To select and successfully implement an ERP system, the capabilities of that system have to be compared with a company’s business needs. Based on a comparison, all of the fits and gaps must be identified and further analysed. This step usually forms part of ERP implementation methodologies and is called fit gap analysis. The paper theoretically overviews methods for applying reference models and describes fit gap analysis processes in detail. The paper’s first contribution is its presentation of a fit gap analysis using standard business process modelling notation. The second contribution is the demonstration of a process-based comparison approach between a supply chain process and an ERP system process reference model. In addition to its theoretical contributions, the results can also be practically applied to projects involving the selection and implementation of ERP systems.

  20. GapCoder automates the use of indel characters in phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Nelson D; Healy, John

    2003-02-19

    Several ways of incorporating indels into phylogenetic analysis have been suggested. Simple indel coding has two strengths: (1) biological realism and (2) efficiency of analysis. In the method, each indel with different start and/or end positions is considered to be a separate character. The presence/absence of these indel characters is then added to the data set. We have written a program, GapCoder to automate this procedure. The program can input PIR format aligned datasets, find the indels and add the indel-based characters. The output is a NEXUS format file, which includes a table showing what region each indel characters is based on. If regions are excluded from analysis, this table makes it easy to identify the corresponding indel characters for exclusion. Manual implementation of the simple indel coding method can be very time-consuming, especially in data sets where indels are numerous and/or overlapping. GapCoder automates this method and is therefore particularly useful during procedures where phylogenetic analyses need to be repeated many times, such as when different alignments are being explored or when various taxon or character sets are being explored. GapCoder is currently available for Windows from http://www.home.duq.edu/~youngnd/GapCoder.

  1. Less power or powerless? Egocentric empathy gaps and the irony of having little versus no power in social decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Handgraaf, M.J.J.; van Dijk, E.; Vermunt, R.C.; Wilke, H.A.M.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

    2008-01-01

    The authors investigate the effect of power differences and associated expectations in social decision making. Using a modified ultimatum game, the authors show that allocators lower their offers to recipients when the power difference shifts in favor of the allocator. Remarkably, however, when

  2. Analisis Kesiapan Sertifikasi Iso 9001:2015 pada PT. Wijara Nagatsupazki dengan Menggunakan Metode Gap Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando, Jonathan Michael; Purwanggono, Bambang; Wicaksono, Purnawan Adi

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of ISO 9001:2015 Certification Readiness in PT. Wijara Nagatsupazki using Gap Analysis, global economic competition and market demand, requires companies to establish and develop the internal management system in accordance with International standards. Due to the world economic competition intensifies, many organizations adopt and implement effective quality improvement programs. The quality improvement program is contained in the Quality Management of System (QMS), which are develo...

  3. Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

  5. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  6. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  7. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account

  8. Bridging the gap between selection decisions of facade systems at the early design phase: Issues, challenges and solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Kassema

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Building facade has a significant impact on the environmental and economic performance of buildings and projects. The specification of their elements at the early design phase depends on numerous technical, environmental and economic factors and involves several stakeholders. The procurement and delivery of the facade work package from the early design phase, through detailed design and manufacture, to installation is a process with several inherent risk factors due to the involved cost, technical and engineering complexities and its position on the critical path in all projects. This research investigates the process of selection and specification of building facade elements at the early design phases with the overarching aim of identifying the issues affecting specification decisions, their root causes and impact on projects. The research utilizes a mixed research approach which combines a retrospective case study and an industry survey as two research methods that build on each other. The findings suggest that the complexity of specification at the early design phases is exacerbated by factors such as the inadequate technical knowledge of stakeholders involved in the decision making process, the non-involvement of building facade consultants, the late involvement of specialist facade subcontractors, and in a few cases by some commercial exclusivity agreements that restricts specification decisions

  9. Results of the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) Gap Review: Specific Action Team (SAT), Examination of Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for Human Exploration of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, C. K.; Eppler, D.; Farrell, W.; Gruener, J.; Lawrence, S.; Pellis, N.; Spudis, P. D.; Stopar, J.; Zeigler, R.; Neal, C; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) was tasked by the Human Exploration Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to establish a Specific Action Team (SAT) to review lunar Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) within the context of new lunar data and some specific human mission scenarios. Within this review, the SAT was to identify the SKGs that have been fully or partially retired, identify new SKGs resulting from new data and observations, and review quantitative descriptions of measurements that are required to fill knowledge gaps, the fidelity of the measurements needed, and if relevant, provide examples of existing instruments or potential missions capable of filling the SKGs.

  10. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

  11. Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

    2005-01-01

    Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

  12. Analysis of Stakeholder-Defined Needs in Northeast U.S. Coastal Communities to Determine Gaps in Research Informing Coastal Resilience Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, G. D.; Kenney, M. A.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Penn, K.

    2017-12-01

    The impacts of climate change on our coastlines are increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and state-to-local economies in the northeastern United States (U.S.). As a result of current or imminent risk of acute and chronic hazards, local, state and regional entities have taken steps to identify and address vulnerabilities to climate change. Decisions to increase coastal infrastructure resilience and grey, green, and cultural infrastructure solutions requires physical, natural, and social science that is useful for decision-making and effective science translation mechanisms. Despite the desire to conduct or fund science that meets the needs of communities, there has been no comprehensive analysis to determine stakeholder-defined research needs. To address this gap, this study conducts a stakeholder needs analysis in northeast U.S. coastal communities to determine gaps in information and translation processes supporting coastal resilience planning. Documents were sourced from local, state, and regional organizations in both the public and private sectors, using the northeast region defined by the third National Climate Assessment. Modeled after Dilling et al. (2015), a deductive coding schema was developed that categorized documents using specific search terms such as "Location and condition of infrastructure" and "Proactive planning". A qualitative document analysis was then executed using NVivo to formally identify patterns and themes present in stakeholder surveys, workshop proceedings, and reports. Initial stakeholder priorities centered around incorporation of climate science into planning and decision making regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure, enhanced emergency planning and response, and communication of key information.

  13. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  14. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2011-12-21

    Dec 21, 2011 ... Full Length Research Paper. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small family farm in Serbia. Branka Kalanović–Bulatović1, Bojan Dimitrijević1*, Zorica Vasiljević1, Zoran Rajić1,. Nebojša Ralević1 and Mladen Grbović2. 1Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, ...

  15. Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions: A Guide for Practitioners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Sarah L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Watson, Andrea C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Grue, Nicholas W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Leisch, Jennifer E. [United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

    2018-03-16

    High-quality renewable energy resource data and other geographic information system (GIS) data are essential for the transition to a clean energy economy that prioritizes local resources, improves resiliency, creates jobs, and promotes energy independence. This guide is intended to support policymakers and planners, as well as technical experts, consultants, and academics in incorporating improved data and analysis into renewable energy decision-making.

  16. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. [Winter wheat yield gap between field blocks based on comparative performance analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jian; Wang, Zhong-Yi; Li, Liang-Tao; Zhang, Ke-Feng; Yu, Zhen-Rong

    2008-09-01

    Based on a two-year household survey data, the yield gap of winter wheat in Quzhou County of Hebei Province, China in 2003-2004 was studied through comparative performance analysis (CPA). The results showed that there was a greater yield gap (from 4.2 to 7.9 t x hm(-2)) between field blocks, with a variation coefficient of 0.14. Through stepwise forward linear multiple regression, it was found that the yield model with 8 selected variables could explain 63% variability of winter wheat yield. Among the variables selected, soil salinity, soil fertility, and irrigation water quality were the most important limiting factors, accounting for 52% of the total yield gap. Crop variety was another important limiting factor, accounting for 14%; while planting date, fertilizer type, disease and pest, and water press accounted for 7%, 14%, 10%, and 3%, respectively. Therefore, besides soil and climate conditions, management practices occupied the majority of yield variability in Quzhou County, suggesting that the yield gap could be reduced significantly through optimum field management.

  18. A sealed-off double-gap pseudospark switch and its performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamba, R. P.; Pal, U. N.; Meena, B. L.; Prakash, R.

    2018-03-01

    This paper reports the development of a sealed-off double-gap pseudospark switch and its performance analysis. The modular pseudospark geometry has two gaps that are separated by a cavity drift space region. It utilizes a single ferroelectric trigger unit in a hollow cathode region of the first gap to initiate the discharge for rapid breakdown of both the gaps. The switch has been pinched for deuterium gas and a gas reservoir has been used for maintaining optimum gas pressure in the sealed-off device. The switch design has been analyzed for higher hold-off voltage with high charge transfer capability at higher repetition rates. The developed switch holds a 50 kV voltage in vacuum, and 40 kV during gas discharge at optimum gas pressure with a peak anode current of 8 kA and pulse duration of 1.3 μs while it is operated with a resistive load of 2.9 Ω. The switch has been tested using a constant current charging power supply for pulse repetition frequency up to 50 Hz at different voltages and peak currents corresponding to 200 nF energy storage capacitors. Its performance has been analyzed in terms of pulse parameters including hold-off voltage, jitter, fall time, rise time, peak current and delay time to qualify the design.

  19. Perioperative and ICU Healthcare Analytics within a Veterans Integrated System Network: a Qualitative Gap Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai, Seshadri; Ayer, Ferenc; Stefanko, Jerry

    2017-08-01

    Health care facilities are implementing analytics platforms as a way to document quality of care. However, few gap analyses exist on platforms specifically designed for patients treated in the Operating Room, Post-Anesthesia Care Unit, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU). As part of a quality improvement effort, we undertook a gap analysis of an existing analytics platform within the Veterans Healthcare Administration. The objectives were to identify themes associated with 1) current clinical use cases and stakeholder needs; 2) information flow and pain points; and 3) recommendations for future analytics development. Methods consisted of semi-structured interviews in 2 phases with a diverse set (n = 9) of support personnel and end users from five facilities across a Veterans Integrated Service Network. Phase 1 identified underlying needs and previous experiences with the analytics platform across various roles and operational responsibilities. Phase 2 validated preliminary feedback, lessons learned, and recommendations for improvement. Emerging themes suggested that the existing system met a small pool of national reporting requirements. However, pain points were identified with accessing data in several information system silos and performing multiple manual validation steps of data content. Notable recommendations included enhancing systems integration to create "one-stop shopping" for data, and developing a capability to perform trends analysis. Our gap analysis suggests that analytics platforms designed for surgical and ICU patients should employ approaches similar to those being used for primary care patients.

  20. Defender-Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ryan J B; von Winterfeldt, Detlof

    2016-12-01

    We propose a methodology, called defender-attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game-theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared-guided MANPADS (man-portable air defense systems), laser-guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  2. A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurth, Margaret; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Bates, Matthew E.; Bridges, Todd S.; Summers, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to facilitate a clean and independent energy future for the nation. Strategic planning for energy research and development (R&D) can be complex and dynamic, in part due to federal budgetary constraints and volatility. Managing R&D funding to advance energy technologies, in spite of these challenges, is a crucial component of the nation's long term energy policy. This study demonstrates a portfolio decision analysis (PDA) approach to support R&D resource allocation decisions for the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and Storage R&D program. A multi-attribute value model uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) and other metrics to represent the overall objectives of the R&D program in order to evaluate alternative research portfolios given limited funding. Mathematical optimization identifies efficient funding allocations for each technology program area to maximize the multi-attribute value generated from the total budget. This is especially useful for responding to externally imposed budget changes. As the case study demonstrates, explicitly funding the most value-generating options leads to greater expected R&D programmatic value than typical strategies of equal or proportional distributions of a budget change among technology program areas. - Highlights: • Decision analysis can minimize the effect of a budget decrement on an R&D program. • Greater expected benefits are yielded by differentially funding technologies. • Budget scenario testing illustrates factors that influence value generation. • Coordinating with US DOE bridges gap between decision research and practice.

  3. Predicting energy consumption and savings in the housing stock: A performance gap analysis in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasa Majcen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Research methods  The research used several large datasets, about dwellings theoretical energy performance, most of which were related to energy label certificates. All the datasets containing theoretical performance were merged with actual energy data. In addition to that, some were also enriched with socioeconomic and behaviour related data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS or from surveys which were designed for the purpose of this research. Simple descriptive statistics were used to compare average theoretical and actual consumptions. Advanced statistical tests were used for detecting correlations, followed by several regression analyses. In a separate scenario study, the resulting averages of both theoretical and actual consumptions were extrapolated nation-wide in order to be compared with the existing policy targets. Due to low predictive power of the variables in regression analyses, a sensitivity analysis of the theoretical gas use was performed on six assumptions made in the theoretical calculation to show how an increment in one of the assumptions affects the final theoretical gas consumption and whether this can explain the performance gap. Last but not least, longitudinal data of the social housing dwelling stock between 2010 and 2013 was analysed, focusing on dwellings that had undergone renovation. The goal was to find out whether the theoretical reduction of consumption materialised and to what extent. A comparison of the actual reduction of different renovation measures was made in order to show what renovation practices lower the consumptions most effectively. The discrepancies between actual and theoretical heating energy consumption in Dutch dwellings. Discrepancies between theoretical and actual gas and electricity consumption On average, the total theoretical primary energy use seems to be in accordance with actual primary energy consumption but when looking at more detailed data, one can see that the contribution of gas to

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  5. Structural analysis, electronic properties, and band gaps of a graphene nanoribbon: A new 2D materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, Devi

    2018-03-01

    Graphene nanoribbon (GNR), a new 2D carbon nanomaterial, has some unique features and special properties that offer a great potential for interconnect, nanoelectronic devices, optoelectronics, and nanophotonics. This paper reports the structural analysis, electronic properties, and band gaps of a GNR considering different chirality combinations obtained using the pz orbital tight binding model. In structural analysis, the analytical expressions for GNRs have been developed and verified using the simulation for the first time. It has been found that the total number of unit cells and carbon atoms within an overall unit cell and molecular structure of a GNR have been changed with the change in their chirality values which are similar to the values calculated using the developed analytical expressions thus validating both the simulation as well as analytical results. Further, the electronic band structures at different chirality values have been shown for the identification of metallic and semiconductor properties of a GNR. It has been concluded that all zigzag edge GNRs are metallic with very small band gaps range whereas all armchair GNRs show both the metallic and semiconductor nature with very small and high band gaps range. Again, the total number of subbands in each electronic band structure is equal to the total number of carbon atoms present in overall unit cell of the corresponding GNR. The semiconductors GNRs can be used as a channel material in field effect transistor suitable for advanced CMOS technology whereas the metallic GNRs could be used for interconnect.

  6. A decision analysis framework to support long-term planning for nuclear fuel cycle technology research, development, demonstration and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sowder, A.G.; Machiels, A.J.; Dykes, A.A.; Johnson, D.H.

    2013-01-01

    To address challenges and gaps in nuclear fuel cycle option assessment and to support research, develop and demonstration programs oriented toward commercial deployment, EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) is seeking to develop and maintain an independent analysis and assessment capability by building a suite of assessment tools based on a platform of software, simplified relationships, and explicit decision-making and evaluation guidelines. As a demonstration of the decision-support framework, EPRI examines a relatively near-term fuel cycle option, i.e., use of reactor-grade mixed-oxide fuel (MOX) in U.S. light water reactors. The results appear as a list of significant concerns (like cooling of spent fuels, criticality risk...) that have to be taken into account for the final decision

  7. Stress analysis of disconnected structures in contact through finite element gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stadter, J.T.; Weiss, R.O.

    1976-07-01

    A numerical procedure is presented for analyzing thermal stress problems of disconnected structures in contact across separations or gaps. The new procedure is called SAASGAPS, an adaptation of the basic SAAS III computer program. The SAAS program uses the finite element method and allows analyses of plane and axisymmetric bodies with temperature dependent material properties, subject to thermal and mechanical loads. A secant modulus approach with a bilinear stress-strain curve is used for elastic-plastic problems. The SAASGAPS version contains all of the features of the original SAAS program. A special gap element is used together with a stress invariance principle to model the contact process. The iterative procedure implemented in SAASGAPS is described. Results are discussed for five problems involving frictionless contact. Two of these problems are associated with the thermal stress analysis of the heat shield for the Multi-Hundred Watt Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator. Input instructions for the program are described in an appendix

  8. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted -- The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) analyzes GeoTIFF images to...

  9. Tips for teachers of evidence-based medicine: making sense of decision analysis using a decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anna; Joynt, Gavin M; Ho, Anthony M H; Keitz, Sheri; McGinn, Thomas; Wyer, Peter C

    2009-05-01

    Decision analysis is a tool that clinicians can use to choose an option that maximizes the overall net benefit to a patient. It is an explicit, quantitative, and systematic approach to decision making under conditions of uncertainty. In this article, we present two teaching tips aimed at helping clinical learners understand the use and relevance of decision analysis. The first tip demonstrates the structure of a decision tree. With this tree, a clinician may identify the optimal choice among complicated options by calculating probabilities of events and incorporating patient valuations of possible outcomes. The second tip demonstrates how to address uncertainty regarding the estimates used in a decision tree. We field tested the tips twice with interns and senior residents. Teacher preparatory time was approximately 90 minutes. The field test utilized a board and a calculator. Two handouts were prepared. Learners identified the importance of incorporating values into the decision-making process as well as the role of uncertainty. The educational objectives appeared to be reached. These teaching tips introduce clinical learners to decision analysis in a fashion aimed to illustrate principles of clinical reasoning and how patient values can be actively incorporated into complex decision making.

  10. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

  11. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  12. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  13. Minding the Cyber-Physical Gap: Model-Based Analysis and Mitigation of Systemic Perception-Induced Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaniv Mordecai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The cyber-physical gap (CPG is the difference between the ‘real’ state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is inevitable at some degree in any cyber-physical system (CPS. Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME, a conceptual model-based approach to capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG. CPGAME enhances the systems engineer’s ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions and actions. We demonstrate CPGAME by applying it for modeling and analysis of the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident, and show how its meltdown could be mitigated. We use ISO-19450:2015—Object Process Methodology as our conceptual modeling framework.

  14. A comparative assessment and gap analysis of commonly used team rating scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, Carla M; Cohen, Elaine R; Kwan, Calvin; Cannon-Bowers, Janice A

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of this article was to conduct a gap analysis of important team constructs that may be absent in widely used team assessments. Two assessment tools with known validity evidence (1) Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons (NOTSS) and (2) the Cannon-Bowers Scale were used to evaluate 11 teams of surgical residents (n = 33) performing simulated laparoscopic hernia repairs. Faculty raters' scores were used to compare the surveys and assess validity and reliability. Raters' detailed observation notes were used to indicate important behavioral constructs that were missing from the team rating scales. When assessing inter-item correlations (reliability) four of five NOTSS' scale items had significant correlations (r = 0.9-1.0, P scales. When evaluating the gap, key emerging themes included the need to focus on critical team errors, individual team member contributions, task performance, and overall team performance. These gaps, plus items from the NOTSS and Cannon-Bowers scales, were incorporated into a new rating scale. Despite continued evidence of validity and reliability, there were several behavioral constructs that were not represented when using the NOTSS and Cannon-Bowers scales. Critical team errors, individual team member contributions, task performance, and overall team performance appear important in our ability to understand teams and teamwork. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Gap analysis and conservation network for freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaowen, Li; Haijin, Zhuge; Li, Mengdi

    2013-01-01

    The Central Yangtze Ecoregion contains a large area of internationally important freshwater wetlands and supports a huge number of endangered waterbirds; however, these unique wetlands and the biodiversity they support are under the constant threats of human development pressures, and the prevailing conservation strategies generated based on the local scale cannot adequately be used as guidelines for ecoregion-based conservation initiatives for Central Yangtze at the broad scale. This paper aims at establishing and optimizing an ecological network for freshwater wetland conservation in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion based on large-scale gap analysis. A group of focal species and GIS-based extrapolation technique were employed to identify the potential habitats and conservation gaps, and the optimized conservation network was then established by combining existing protective system and identified conservation gaps. Our results show that only 23.49% of the potential habitats of the focal species have been included in the existing nature reserves in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion. To effectively conserve over 80% of the potential habitats for the focal species by optimizing the existing conservation network for the freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion, it is necessary to establish new wetland nature reserves in 22 county units across Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces.

  16. Benchmarking and gap analysis of faculty mentorship priorities and how well they are met.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruner, Deborah Watkins; Dunbar, Sandra; Higgins, Melinda; Martyn, Kristy

    2016-01-01

    There is little consensus among faculty mentoring programs as to best practices. While there are recommendations in the literature to base faculty development programs on gap analyses of faculty ratings of actual and preferred performance in teaching, scholarship and service, no gap analysis was found in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop a survey tool to benchmark school of nursing (SON) faculty mentorship priorities and conduct a gap analysis of how well they were being addressed. Senior faculty who lead mentorship as part of their roles in the SON (associate and assistant deans and director of mentorship) developed a survey through (a) asking faculty members for priorities at in-person mentorship seminars, (b) a review of current nursing literature, and (c) input from the SON mentorship advisory board. The final survey included 37 items focused on general job duties, structure of the mentoring program, time management, as well as skills needed for research, teaching, practice, writing and team science. Responses (rated from 0-not important to 5-very high priority) were requested in 4 areas: the first area focused on how high a priority the respondent rated a given item and areas 2 to 4 focused on how well the need was met by one of three resources: their SON primary assigned mentor, other SON resources, or other university resources. There were 63 eligible SON faculty to whom the survey was e-mailed with a 60% (n = 38) response rate. Most of the respondents were clinical track (42.1%) followed by tenure track (39.5%) and research track (15.8%). Half were assistant professors. The percentage of respondents giving a rating of 4 to 5 were calculated and then ranked. Almost all the faculty responding, regardless of track or rank, desired formal mentorship. Among all faculty, the top five priorities were guidance on producing timely publications (70.4%), mentorship on work-life balance (68%), mentorship on putting together a promotion

  17. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  18. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  19. Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

    1998-01-01

    Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

  20. Selection of an optimal Landfill Location using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Mirakovski, Dejan; Peltecki, Dragi; Despodov, Zoran; Bosev, Zoran; Panov, Zoran

    2013-01-01

    This paper identifies the components necessary to develop a decision analysis framework on issues concerning the selection of a landfill location, to facilitate the selection of a multi-criteria decision analysis process and thereafter to provide guidance on the implementation of the selected multi-criteria decision analysis method within the larger context of the people, processes,and tools used in decision making.The main subject of research of this paper is the applicability of multi-crite...

  1. A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Personalized Kidney Transplant Decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P.; Kaplan, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    To provide personalized medicine, we not only must determine the treatments and other decisions most likely to be effective for a patient, but also consider the patient’s tradeoff between possible benefits of therapy versus possible loss of quality of life. There are numerous studies indicating that various treatments can negatively affect quality of life. Even if we have all information available for a given patient, it is an arduous task to amass the information to reach a decision that maximizes the utility of the decision to the patient. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist healthcare professionals with decision making tasks. By utilizing emerging large datasets, we hold promise for developing CDSSs that can predict how treatments and other decisions can affect outcomes. However, we need to go beyond that; namely our CDSS needs to account for the extent to which these decisions can affect quality of life. This manuscript provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. Such CDSSs are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of the Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) as a decision support tool, and we discuss several difficulties with this index. Most importantly, the KDRI does not provide a measure of the expected quality of life if the kidney is accepted versus the expected quality of life if the patient stays on dialysis. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models the kidney transplant decision, and show how the influence diagram approach can resolve these difficulties and provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool. PMID:26900809

  2. An organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scahill, Shane L; Carswell, Peter; Harrison, Jeff

    2011-09-01

    The barriers to moving forward and meeting the expectations of policy makers and professional pharmacy bodies appear to relate to the organizational culture of community pharmacy. Despite the importance of cultural change for business transformation, organizational culture has largely gone unnoticed in community pharmacy practice research. To perform an organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies. Mean scores from a cultural rating survey (n=47) were calculated for 8 cultural clusters and mapped onto a typical and a beneficial pattern match (ladder diagram) for each case site. These ladder diagrams provide an understanding of the gap between the 2 ratings based on the gradient of the lines joining cultural clusters-the rungs of the ladder. Software can be used to generate a Pearson correlation describing the strength of the relationship between the typical and beneficial ratings. Eight cultural clusters were mapped: "leadership and staff management"; "valuing each other and the team"; "free-thinking, fun and, open to challenge"; "trusted behavior"; "customer relations"; "focus on external integration"; "provision of systematic advice"; and the "embracing of innovation." Analysis suggested a high level of correlation between the means of the typical and beneficial ratings. Although the variance between average ratings might be quite small, the relative difference can still be meaningful to participants in the cultural setting. The diagrams suggest a requirement for external integration, the provision of systematic advice, and the embracing of innovation to become more typical in most pharmacies. Trusted behavior is the most typical and most beneficial cultural dimension in most pharmacies, whereas valuing each other and the team is the least beneficial. Gaps in organizational culture have been identified through the use of a rating survey. The dimensions of focus on external integration, providing systematic advice, and embracing

  3. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  4. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian; Lühmann, Dagmar; Mäkelä, Marjukka; Velasco-Garrido, Marcial; Autti-Rämö, Ilona

    2008-08-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs, and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers. Integrating ethical considerations into HTA can improve the relevance of technology assessments for health care and health policy in both developed and developing countries.

  5. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  6. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  7. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  8. The 3rd Report on Climate Change in Catalonia: a joint initiative to bridge the gap between Science and Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Queralt, Arnau; Llasat, Maria del Carmen; Serena, Josep Maria; Pont, Isabel

    2017-04-01

    In January 2017 the Government of Catalonia (Advisory Council for the Sustainable Development, Catalan Office for Climate Change, and Meteorological Service of Catalonia) and the Institute for Catalan Studies presented the Third Report on Climate Change in Catalonia, whose aims are (1) to gather and summarise the most recent information on climate change and its effects on the natural and human systems in Catalonia (and to identify existing knowledge gaps), (2) to make recommendations to decision-makers, and (3) to rise decision-makers and citizens awareness on the effects of climate change and the importance of reinforce mitigation and adaptation efforts. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, impacts and subsequent adaptive action may differ across countries and regions. In accordance to this, and with the aim of downscaling the contents of the IPCC reports, the first report on climate change in Catalonia was published in 2005 and was followed by a second edition in 2010. Directly linked to this second report, the Catalan Panel on Climate Change was established. During a year and a half more than 130 authors and 40 scientific and technical revisers (assisted by a board and technical staff from the leading institutions) have participated in the third assessment of climate change in Catalonia. The report updates the observations and projections related to the climate evolution at Catalonia and its impacts, gathering the most advanced scientific knowledge and providing the Catalan Government with sectorial recommendations to face these impacts. After its official launch in January 2017, the report will be presented and discussed with several ministers and officials within the Catalan Government, but also with the main stakeholders. These presentations and dialogue are strategic actions for bridging the gap between Science and Policy-making regarding climate change. An executive summary identifying in a very focused way the main messages arising from the

  9. Evaluation of acid-base disorders in dogs and cats presenting to an emergency room. Part 2: comparison of anion gap, strong ion gap, and semiquantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, Kate; Epstein, Steven E; Kass, Philip H; Mellema, Matthew S

    2014-01-01

    To compare the diagnostic performance of the anion gap (AG) with 2 physicochemical approaches to identify unmeasured anions. Prospective cohort study. University teaching hospital. Eighty-four dogs and 14 cats presenting to a university teaching hospital emergency room. All dogs and cats in which venous blood samples for acid-base, lactate, and serum biochemical analysis were all collected within 60 minutes of each other, over a 5-month enrollment period. Unmeasured anions were quantified using each of three approaches: the anion gap (AG), strong ion gap (SIG), and a semiquantitative approach (XA). An increased AG metabolic acidosis was evident in 34/98 of cases. The Stewart approach identified an increased SIG acidosis in 49/98 of cases. There was a strong correlation between SIG and AG (r = 0.89; P anions in 68/98 of cases. There was a moderate correlation between AG and XA (r = 0.68; P anions occurred commonly in this sample of small animal emergency room patients and physiochemical approaches identified more animals with unmeasured anions than the traditional AG calculation. Further studies are needed to determine if the results of the physicochemical approach improves clinical management and warrants the associated increases in cost and complexity. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2014.

  10. Using fuzzy gap analysis to measure service quality of medical tourism in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Li-Hsing; Feng, Shu-Yun; Yen, Tieh-Min

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is intended to create a model to measure quality of service, using fuzzy linguistics to analyze the quality of service of medical tourism in Taiwan so as to find the direction for improvement of service quality in medical tourism. The study developed fuzzy questionnaires based on the characteristics of medical tourism quality of service in Taiwan. Questionnaires were delivered and recovered from February to April 2014, using random sampling according to the proportion of medical tourism companies in each region, and 150 effective samples were obtained. The critical quality of service level is found through the fuzzy gap analysis using questionnaires examining expectations and perceptions of customers, as the direction for continuous improvement. From the study, the primary five critical service items that improve the quality of service for medical tourism in Taiwan include, in order: the capability of the service provider to provide committed medical tourism services reliably and accurately, facility service providers in conjunction with the services provided, the cordial and polite attitude of the service provider eliciting a sense of trust from the customer, professional ability of medical (nursing) personnel in hospital and reliability of service provider. The contribution of this study is to create a fuzzy gap analysis to assess the performance of medical tourism service quality, identify key quality characteristics and provide a direction for improvement and development for medical tourism service quality in Taiwan.

  11. Models, solution, methods and their applicability of dynamic location problems (DLPs) (a gap analysis for further research)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyedhosseini, Seyed Mohammad; Makui, Ahmad; Shahanaghi, Kamran; Torkestani, Sara Sadat

    2016-05-01

    Determining the best location to be profitable for the facility's lifetime is the important decision of public and private firms, so this is why discussion about dynamic location problems (DLPs) is a critical significance. This paper presented a comprehensive review from 1968 up to most recent on published researches about DLPs and classified them into two parts. First, mathematical models developed based on different characteristics: type of parameters (deterministic, probabilistic or stochastic), number and type of objective function, numbers of commodity and modes, relocation time, number of relocation and relocating facilities, time horizon, budget and capacity constraints and their applicability. In second part, It have been also presented solution algorithms, main specification, applications and some real-world case studies of DLPs. At the ends, we concluded that in the current literature of DLPs, distribution systems and production-distribution systems with simple assumption of the tackle to the complexity of these models studied more than any other fields, as well as the concept of variety of services (hierarchical network), reliability, sustainability, relief management, waiting time for services (queuing theory) and risk of facility disruption need for further investigation. All of the available categories based on different criteria, solution methods and applicability of them, gaps and analysis which have been done in this paper suggest the ways for future research.

  12. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for strategic decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A de Waal

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA and Bayesian networks (BN are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating problem spaces. BNs are graphical models which consist of a qualitative and quantitative part. The qualitative part is a cause-and-effect, or causal graph. The quantitative part depicts the strength of the causal relationships between variables. Combining MA and BN, as two phases in a modelling process, allows us to gain the benefits of both of these methods. The strength of MA lies in defining, linking and internally evaluating the parameters of problem spaces and BN modelling allows for the definition and quantification of causal relationships between variables. Short summaries of MA and BN are provided in this paper, followed by discussions how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support.

  13. Personalized prophylactic anticoagulation decision analysis in patients with membranous nephropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Taewoo; Biddle, Andrea K.; Lionaki, Sofia; Derebail, Vimal K.; Barbour, Sean J.; Tannous, Sameer; Hladunewich, Michelle A.; Hu, Yichun; Poulton, Caroline J.; Mahoney, Shannon L.; Jennette, J. Charles; Hogan, Susan L.; Falk, Ronald J.; Cattran, Daniel C.; Reich, Heather N.; Nachman, Patrick H.

    2014-01-01

    Primary membranous nephropathy is associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolic events, which are inversely correlated with serum albumin levels. To evaluate the potential benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation (venous thromboembolic events prevented) relative to the risk (major bleeds), we constructed a Markov decision model. The venous thromboembolic event risk according to serum albumin was obtained from an inception cohort of 898 patients with primary membranous nephropathy. Risk estimates of hemorrhage were obtained from a systematic literature review. Benefit-to-risk ratios were predicted according to bleeding risk and serum albumin. This ratio increased with worsening hypoalbuminemia from 4.5:1 for an albumin under 3 g/dl to 13.1:1 for an albumin under 2 g/dl in patients at low bleeding risk. Patients at intermediate bleeding risk with an albumin under 2 g/dl have a moderately favorable benefit-to-risk ratio (under 5:1). Patients at high bleeding risk are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation regardless of albuminemia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis, to account for uncertainty in risk estimates, confirmed these trends. From these data, we constructed a tool to estimate the likelihood of benefit based on an individual’s bleeding risk profile, serum albumin level, and acceptable benefit-to-risk ratio (http://www.gntools.com). This tool provides an approach to the decision of prophylactic anticoagulation personalized to the individual’s needs and adaptable to dynamic changes in health status and risk profile. PMID:24336031

  14. Multi-criteria decision making: an example of sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan S. Pamučar

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a model for result consistency evaluation of multicriterial decision making (MDM methods and selection of the optimal one. The model is based on the analysis of results of MDM methods, that is, the analysis of changes in rankings of MDM methods that occur as a result of alterations in input parameters. In the recommended model, we examine sensitivity analysis of MDM methods to changes in criteria weight and result consistency of methods to changes in measurement scale and the way in which we formulate criteria. In the final phase of the model, we select the most suitable method to solve the observed problem and the optimal alternative. The model is tested on an example, when the optimal MDM method selection was required in order to determine the location of the logistical center. During the selection process, TOPSIS, COPRAS, VIKOR and ELECTRE methods were considered. VIKOR method demonstrated the biggest stability of rankings and was selected as the most fit method for ranking the locations of the logistical center. Results of the demonstrated analysis indicate sensitivity of standard MDM methods to criteria considered in this work. Therefore, it is necessary, to take into account stability of the considered method during the selection process of the optimal method.

  15. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  16. A Semiotic Analysis of the Gender Equality Paradigm. Case study: the Gender Pay Gap Campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mădălina Manolache

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the new European space of identity, attitude and action challenges, syntagms such as “unity in diversity” or “equal pay for work of equal value” have become identitarian brands for social groups with a high-level of self-awareness. Having the social semiotics (Kress, van Leeuwen [1996] 2006 as theoretical background, we focused our analysis on the gender equality paradigm. The empirical data were provided by four visual texts of the Gender Pay Gap campaign, initiated by the European Commission in March 2009, in order to map the new European “puzzle-space” . The analysis showed the importance of compositional, representational and interactive meanings within the European discourse on equality of chances and gender.

  17. School-Leaving Decisions in Australia: A Cohort Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Anh T.; Miller, Paul W.

    2004-01-01

    The decision to invest in education is influenced by a large number of economic, social, family, personal and institutional factors. Many of these changed in Australia during the 1970s and 1980s. Several of the more important of these changes, such as the Equal Pay for Equal Work decision of 1969, the Equal Pay for Work of Equal Value decision of…

  18. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

  19. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  20. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...

  1. An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

    2017-01-01

    A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

  2. THE DECISION BY THE INTER-AMERICAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS ON THE AWAS TINGNI VS. NICARAGUA CASE (2001: THE IMPLEMENTATION GAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FELIPE GÓMEZ ISA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In August 2001, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights reached a landmark and pioneering decision in the field of international indigenous peoples’ human rights law. However, the case did not end there, but entered a new phase for which neither the community nor their advisors were fully prepared: the implementation phase of the judgment. Our analysis has tried to shed light on the vicissitudes of this long, complex and as yet unfinished process, which is one of the most innovative aspects of this paper. This is particularly relevant given the absence of systematic studies on the implementation processes of judicial decisions made by international bodies (such as the Inter-American Court from the perspective of the victims themselves, and of the stakeholders involved in the case.

  3. Uses and misuses of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Katie; Carmel, Yohay; Cross, Jean; Wilcox, Chris

    2009-01-01

    We focus on a class of multicriteria methods that are commonly used in environmental decision making--those that employ the weighted linear average algorithm (and this includes the popular analytic hierarchy process (AHP)). While we do not doubt the potential benefits of using formal decision methods of this type, we draw attention to the consequences of not using them well. In particular, we highlight a property of these methods that should not be overlooked when they are applied in environmental and wider decision-making contexts: the final decision or ranking of options is dependent on the choice of performance scoring scales for the criteria when the criteria weights are held constant. We compare this "sensitivity" to a well-known criticism of the AHP, and we go on to describe the more general lesson when it comes to using weighted linear average methods--a lesson concerning the relationship between criteria weights and performance scoring scales.

  4. Engineers and the Web: An analysis of real life gaps in information usage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraaijenbrink, Jeroen

    2007-01-01

    Engineers face a wide range of gaps when trying to identify, acquire, and utilize information from the Web. To be able to avoid creating such gaps, it is essential to understand them in detail. This paper reports the results of a study of the real life gaps in information usage processes of 17

  5. Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are

  6. Focal point analysis of the singlet-triplet energy gap of octacene and larger acenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajgató, Balázs; Huzak, Matija; Deleuze, Michael S

    2011-08-25

    A benchmark theoretical study of the electronic ground state and of the vertical and adiabatic singlet-triplet (ST) excitation energies of n-acenes (C(4n+2)H(2n+4)) ranging from octacene (n = 8) to undecacene (n = 11) is presented. The T1 diagnostics of coupled cluster theory and further energy-based criteria demonstrate that all investigated systems exhibit predominantly a (1)A(g) singlet closed-shell electronic ground state. Singlet-triplet (S(0)-T(1)) energy gaps can therefore be very accurately determined by applying the principle of a focal point analysis (FPA) onto the results of a series of single-point and symmetry-restricted calculations employing correlation consistent cc-pVXZ basis sets (X = D, T, Q, 5) and single-reference methods [HF, MP2, MP3, MP4SDQ, CCSD, and CCSD(T)] of improving quality. According to our best estimates, which amount to a dual extrapolation of energy differences to the level of coupled cluster theory including single, double, and perturbative estimates of connected triple excitations [CCSD(T)] in the limit of an asymptotically complete basis set (cc-pV∞Z), the S(0)-T(1) vertical (adiabatic) excitation energies of these compounds amount to 13.40 (8.21), 10.72 (6.05), 8.05 (3.67), and 7.10 (2.58) kcal/mol, respectively. In line with the absence of Peierls distortions (bond length alternations), extrapolations of results obtained at this level for benzene (n = 1) and all studied n-acenes so far (n = 2-11) indicate a vanishing S(0)-T(1) energy gap, in the limit of an infinitely large polyacene, within an uncertainty of 1.5 kcal/mol (0.06 eV). Lacking experimental values for the S(0)-T(1) energy gaps of n-acenes larger than hexacene, comparison is made with recent optical and electrochemical determinations of the HOMO-LUMO band gap. Further issues such as scalar relativistic, core correlation, and diagonal Born-Oppenheimer corrections (DBOCs) are tentatively examined. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  7. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  8. Gendered use of experts in the media: Analysis of the gender gap in Finnish news journalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Mari K; Pitkänen, Ville

    2017-04-01

    Several studies conducted in Western democracies have indicated that men continue to be overrepresented and women underrepresented as experts in the media. This article explores the situation in Finland, a progressive and 'female-friendly' Nordic country with highly educated women who are widely present in the job market. The analysis is based on three sets of research data featuring a wide set of media data, a survey and interviews. This study reveals that public expertise continues to be male dominated in Finland: less than 30% of the experts interviewed in the news media are women. While the distribution of work and power in the labour market may explain some of the observed gender gap, journalistic practices and a masculine tradition of public expertise are likely to play a role as well.

  9. Identification and Analysis of Critical Gaps in Nuclear Fuel Cycle Codes Required by the SINEMA Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adrian Miron; Joshua Valentine; John Christenson; Majd Hawwari; Santosh Bhatt; Mary Lou Dunzik-Gougar: Michael Lineberry

    2009-10-01

    The current state of the art in nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) modeling is an eclectic mixture of codes with various levels of applicability, flexibility, and availability. In support of the advanced fuel cycle systems analyses, especially those by the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), Unviery of Cincinnati in collaboration with Idaho State University carried out a detailed review of the existing codes describing various aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle and identified the research and development needs required for a comprehensive model of the global nuclear energy infrastructure and the associated nuclear fuel cycles. Relevant information obtained on the NFC codes was compiled into a relational database that allows easy access to various codes' properties. Additionally, the research analyzed the gaps in the NFC computer codes with respect to their potential integration into programs that perform comprehensive NFC analysis.

  10. Identification and Analysis of Critical Gaps in Nuclear Fuel Cycle Codes Required by the SINEMA Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miron, Adrian; Valentine, Joshua; Christenson, John; Hawwari, Majd; Bhatt, Santosh; Dunzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Lineberry, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The current state of the art in nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) modeling is an eclectic mixture of codes with various levels of applicability, flexibility, and availability. In support of the advanced fuel cycle systems analyses, especially those by the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), University of Cincinnati in collaboration with Idaho State University carried out a detailed review of the existing codes describing various aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle and identified the research and development needs required for a comprehensive model of the global nuclear energy infrastructure and the associated nuclear fuel cycles. Relevant information obtained on the NFC codes was compiled into a relational database that allows easy access to various codes' properties. Additionally, the research analyzed the gaps in the NFC computer codes with respect to their potential integration into programs that perform comprehensive NFC analysis.

  11. Retrospective analysis of "new" flame retardants in the global atmosphere under the GAPS Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sum Chi; Sverko, Ed; Harner, Tom; Pozo, Karla; Barresi, Enzo; Schachtschneider, JoAnne; Zaruk, Donna; DeJong, Maryl; Narayan, Julie

    2016-10-01

    A retrospective analysis was conducted on air samples that were collected in 2005 under the Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) Network around the time period when the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants came into force. Results are presented for several new flame retardants, including hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), which was recently listed under the Convention (2013). These results represent the first global-scale distributions in air for these compounds. The targeted compounds are shown to have unique global distributions in air, which highlights the challenges in understanding the sources and environmental fate of each chemical, and ultimately in their assessments as persistent organic pollutants. The study also demonstrates the feasibility of using the PUF disk passive air sampler to study these new flame retardants in air, many of which exist entirely in the particle-phase as demonstrated in this study using a KOA-based partitioning model. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  13. THE COGNITIVE COMPETENCES OF IMMIGRANT AND NATIVE STUDENTS ACROSS THE WORLD: AN ANALYSIS OF GAPS, POSSIBLE CAUSES AND IMPACT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rindermann, Heiner; Thompson, James

    2016-01-01

    Immigration, immigration policies and education of immigrants alter competence levels. This study analysed their effects using PISA, TIMSS and PIRLS data (1995 to 2012, N=93 nations) for natives' and immigrants' competences, competence gaps and their population proportions. The mean gap is equivalent to 4.71 IQ points. There are large differences across countries in these gaps ranging from around +12 to -10 IQ points. Migrants' proportions grow roughly 4% per decade. The largest immigrant-based 'brain gains' are observed for Arabian oil-based economies, and the largest 'brain losses' for Central Europe. Regarding causes of native-immigrant gaps, language problems do not seem to explain them. However, English-speaking countries show an advantage. Acculturation within one generation and intermarriage usually reduce native-immigrant gaps (≅1 IQ point). National educational quality reduces gaps, especially school enrolment at a young age, the use of tests and school autonomy. A one standard deviation increase in school quality represents a closing of around 1 IQ point in the native-immigrant gap. A new Greenwich IQ estimation based on UK natives' cognitive ability mean is recommended. An analysis of the first adult OECD study PIAAC revealed that larger proportions of immigrants among adults reduce average competence levels and positive Flynn effects. The effects on economic development and suggestions for immigration and educational policy are discussed.

  14. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  15. Mind the gap in clinical trials: A participatory action analysis with citizen collaborators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Amy; Liew, Su May; Kirkpatrick, Jo; Price, Jazmin; Lopreto, Taylor; Nelken, Yasmin

    2017-02-01

    What are the strengths, gaps, expectations, and barriers to research engagement in clinical trials as communicated through social media? Clinical trials test treatments to provide reliable information for safety and effectiveness. Trials are building blocks in which what is learned in earlier research can be used to improve treatments, compare alternatives, and improve quality of life. For 20 years, the percentages of clinical trials volunteers have decreased whereas the costs of running clinical trials have multiplied. Participants enroll in trials to access latest treatments, to help others, and to advance science, but there is growing unrest. The priorities of those running the trials differ from those of the participants, and the roles for public research involvement lack clarity. Changes to bridge these gaps in the research culture are proposed through the use of participatory action research (PAR) in which stakeholders collaborate to improve research methodology, galvanize citizen participation, multiply health knowledge, problem-solve barriers to access, and explore the value of research volunteers as collaborators. PAR enabled the inclusion of citizens as full collaborators. Social media data were gathered for 120 days until saturation was reached. De-identified data were organized into a Strengths Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats framework and coded into themes for analysis. After the analysis, the authors prioritized potential solutions for improving research engagement. Strengths and opportunities remained constant through trial phases, disease burdens, and interventions. Threats included alienation, litigation, disparity, and shaming. Poor management and barriers to inclusion were identified as weaknesses. Opportunities included improving resource management and information quality. Barriers were minimized when relationships between staff and participants were inclusive, respectful, tolerant, and open to change. Participants' communications

  16. Analysis of Decisions Made Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Action FMHR Field Material Handling Robot FGDO Foreign Government Defense Organizations MCDM Multi Criteria Decision Making OR Operations Research RDTE...of professionals. The tool developed, the AHP, is a method of Multi Criteria Decision Making ( MCDM ). The AHP uses the decision- maker’s opinions to...widely used throughout the world in various fields of study for MCDM . A few examples are: deciding how best to reduce the impact of global climate change

  17. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  18. Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambert, H.E.

    1975-01-01

    The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut sets according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure. (80 figures, 20 tables)

  19. Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudeshna Chatterjee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: 1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Settings and Design: Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. Methods and Material: It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients (n = 200 of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Statistical Analysis Used: Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%. Results: Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. Conclusions: The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

  20. The analysis of the capacity of the selected measures of decision-making models in companies

    OpenAIRE

    Helena Kościelniak; Beata Skowron-Grabowska; Sylwia Łęgowik-Świącik; Małgorzata Łęgowik-Małolepsza

    2015-01-01

    The paper aims at the analysis of the information capacity of selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in the analyzed companies. In the paper there are presented the idea and concepts of decision-making models. There have been discussed the selected instruments of the assessment of decision-making models in enterprises. In the final part of the paper there has been held the quantification of decision- making models in the investigated cement industry companies. To mee...

  1. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of serum anion gap and osmolal gap in diagnosis and prognosis of acute methanol poisoning: clinical study in 86 patients

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zakharov, S.; Navrátil, Tomáš; Pelclová, D.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 146, č. 5 (2015), s. 787-794 ISSN 0026-9247 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP208/12/1645 Institutional support: RVO:61388955 Keywords : serum anion gap * osmolal gap * acute methanol poisoning Subject RIV: CG - Electrochemistry Impact factor: 1.131, year: 2015

  3. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    .... In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives...

  4. Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Artelli, Michael

    1998-01-01

    This thesis is an application of decision analysis techniques to the problem of evaluating competing research and development investments and selecting the best portfolio from among the alternatives...

  5. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Mohammed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules within the decentralised services. Results Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited.

  6. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonstra, A.

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and

  7. Health care input constraints and cost effectiveness analysis decision rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.H.M. Van Baal (Pieter); Morton, A. (Alec); J.L. Severens (Hans)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractResults of cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) studies are most useful for decision makers if they face only one constraint: the health care budget. However, in practice, decision makers wishing to use the results of CEA studies may face multiple resource constraints relating to, for

  8. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    qualitative and quantitative techniques associated with phenomenological studies. Overall indications are that a clear understanding exists that different challenges (of achieving perceived optimum efficiency) attract different sets of decisions. The array of decision making areas subjectively associated with the achievement ...

  9. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2015-11-15

    Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  10. Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using bayesian decision networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Garbolino, P; Taroni, F

    2012-11-30

    Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker--typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client--ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked

  11. Information Gap Analysis: near real-time evaluation of disaster response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Trevor

    2014-05-01

    produced under each category was then compared to establish best practices. Thus, the information produced by a disaster management system following a major disaster can be compared to these best practices within days of the disaster. The resulting "information gap analysis" can help identify areas of the response that may need to be improved and raise questions as to why critical information is lacking or delayed. This information gap analysis therefore complements ex post evaluations and can help lead to improvements in the immediate response and subsequently reduce disaster impacts on the population. The methodology has already been applied in the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology's (CEDIM) Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) activities following tropical cyclone Phailin in India, and the Bohol Earthquake and Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines.

  12. Cause Analysis Of Outpatient Visits Decreasing Based On Service Quality Gaps Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wulandari, Ratna Dwi; Halim, Christine Natalia

    2013-01-01

    In healthcare services, gap between quality service by provider and the expectation of consumer arefrequently found. This research was aimed to analyze why the number of outpatient visit in Usada HospitalSidoarjo gradually decreased. This research identified 7 kind of gap using service quality gaps model. This wascross-sectional study with descriptive approach. Interview using questionnaire had done to 100 outpatient, 13management official, and 18 Usada hospital€™s employees. The expected ser...

  13. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  14. Risk Analysis Based Business Rule Enforcement for Intelligent Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilecas, Olegas; Smaizys, Aidas; Brazinskas, Ramunas

    Intelligent information systems are acting by structured rules and do not deal with possible impact on the business environment or future consequences. That is the main reason why automated decisions based on such rules cannot take responsibility and requires involvement or approval of dedicated business people. This limits decision automation possibilities in information systems. However, business rules describe business policy and represent business logics. This can be used in intelligent information systems, together with risk assessment model to simulate real business environment and evaluate possible impact of automated decisions, to support intelligent decision automation. The chapter proposes risk and business rule model integration to provide full intelligent decision automation model used for business rule enforcement and implementation into intelligent software systems of information systems.

  15. Analysis of functional importance of binding sites in the Drosophila gap gene network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Konstantin; Gursky, Vitaly V; Kulakovskiy, Ivan V; Dymova, Arina; Samsonova, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The statistical thermodynamics based approach provides a promising framework for construction of the genotype-phenotype map in many biological systems. Among important aspects of a good model connecting the DNA sequence information with that of a molecular phenotype (gene expression) is the selection of regulatory interactions and relevant transcription factor bindings sites. As the model may predict different levels of the functional importance of specific binding sites in different genomic and regulatory contexts, it is essential to formulate and study such models under different modeling assumptions. We elaborate a two-layer model for the Drosophila gap gene network and include in the model a combined set of transcription factor binding sites and concentration dependent regulatory interaction between gap genes hunchback and Kruppel. We show that the new variants of the model are more consistent in terms of gene expression predictions for various genetic constructs in comparison to previous work. We quantify the functional importance of binding sites by calculating their impact on gene expression in the model and calculate how these impacts correlate across all sites under different modeling assumptions. The assumption about the dual interaction between hb and Kr leads to the most consistent modeling results, but, on the other hand, may obscure existence of indirect interactions between binding sites in regulatory regions of distinct genes. The analysis confirms the previously formulated regulation concept of many weak binding sites working in concert. The model predicts a more or less uniform distribution of functionally important binding sites over the sets of experimentally characterized regulatory modules and other open chromatin domains.

  16. Health care input constraints and cost effectiveness analysis decision rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Baal, Pieter; Morton, Alec; Severens, Johan L

    2018-03-01

    Results of cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) studies are most useful for decision makers if they face only one constraint: the health care budget. However, in practice, decision makers wishing to use the results of CEA studies may face multiple resource constraints relating to, for instance, constraints in health care inputs such as a shortage of skilled labour. The presence of multiple resource constraints influences the decision rules of CEA and limits the usefulness of traditional CEA studies for decision makers. The goal of this paper is to illustrate how results of CEA can be interpreted and used in case a decision maker faces a health care input constraint. We set up a theoretical model describing the optimal allocation of the health care budget in the presence of a health care input constraint. Insights derived from that model were used to analyse a stylized example based on a decision about a surgical robot as well as a published cost effectiveness study on eye care services in Zambia. Our theoretical model shows that applying default decision rules in the presence of a health care input constraint leads to suboptimal decisions but that there are ways of preserving the traditional decision rules of CEA by reweighing different cost categories. The examples illustrate how such adjustments can be made, and makes clear that optimal decisions depend crucially on such adjustments. We conclude that it is possible to use the results of cost effectiveness studies in the presence of health care input constraints if results are properly adjusted. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Identifying a preservation zone using multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farashi, A.; Naderi, M.; Parvian, N.

    2016-07-01

    Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine. (Author)

  18. Microseismic Monitoring Design Optimization Based on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovaleva, Y.; Tamimi, N.; Ostadhassan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Borehole microseismic monitoring of hydraulic fracture treatments of unconventional reservoirs is a widely used method in the oil and gas industry. Sometimes, the quality of the acquired microseismic data is poor. One of the reasons for poor data quality is poor survey design. We attempt to provide a comprehensive and thorough workflow, using multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), to optimize planning micriseismic monitoring. So far, microseismic monitoring has been used extensively as a powerful tool for determining fracture parameters that affect the influx of formation fluids into the wellbore. The factors that affect the quality of microseismic data and their final results include average distance between microseismic events and receivers, complexity of the recorded wavefield, signal-to-noise ratio, data aperture, etc. These criteria often conflict with each other. In a typical microseismic monitoring, those factors should be considered to choose the best monitoring well(s), optimum number of required geophones, and their depth. We use MDCA to address these design challenges and develop a method that offers an optimized design out of all possible combinations to produce the best data acquisition results. We believe that this will be the first research to include the above-mentioned factors in a 3D model. Such a tool would assist companies and practicing engineers in choosing the best design parameters for future microseismic projects.

  19. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Pierru, A.

    2005-01-01

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  20. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  1. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  2. Multiple criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Duenas, Alejandra

    2012-12-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been suggested by some researchers as a method to capture the benefits beyond quality adjusted life-years in a transparent and consistent manner. The objectives of this article were to analyze the possible application of MCDA approaches in health technology assessment and to describe their relative advantages and disadvantages. This article begins with an introduction to the most common types of MCDA models and a critical review of state-of-the-art methods for incorporating multiple criteria in health technology assessment. An overview of MCDA is provided and is compared against the current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence health technology appraisal process. A generic MCDA modeling approach is described, and the different MCDA modeling approaches are applied to a hypothetical case study. A comparison of the different MCDA approaches is provided, and the generic issues that need consideration before the application of MCDA in health technology assessment are examined. There are general practical issues that might arise from using an MCDA approach, and it is suggested that appropriate care be taken to ensure the success of MCDA techniques in the appraisal process. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

    1995-01-01

    The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

  4. Multi criteria decision analysis on a waste repository in Mol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2005-01-01

    In Belgium, the management of radioactive waste is taken care of by ONDRAF/NIRAS, the Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials. Local partnerships with stakeholders from municipalities in existing nuclear zones were setup to facilitate the dialogue between the repository designers and the local community. Since the establishment of the partnership in Mol, MONA in February 2000, all aspects of a possible near-surface or a deep geological repository are discussed in 4 working groups by around 50 volunteer members. The outcome of the discussions in the partnership can be a shared project, supported by both local stakeholders and ONDRAF/NIRAS, in which the specifications and the conditions needed for establishing a repository in Mol are elaborated. MONA asked the Decision Strategy Research Department of SCK-CEN to organise a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) in the context of the deciding between a surface and a deep repository for low level radioactive waste. The objective of the multi criteria analysis is to support a number of representatives of the various working groups within MONA in their selection between two acceptable options for a repository of low level radioactive waste on the territory of Mol. The options are the surface repository developed by the working groups of MONA, and a deep repository in the clay layers underneath the nuclear site of Mol. This study should facilitate the selection between both options, or in case this appears to be difficult, at least to get a well-structured overview of all factors (criteria) of importance to the judgement, and to get insight into the degree in which the various criteria contribute to the selection

  5. Needs-based gap analysis for service transformation in the Eastern Cape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Sukeri

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Part I of this research article presents a needs-based analysis for the management of schizophrenia, bipolar mood disorder and major depression for the Eastern Cape (EC Province, South Africa. This part of the research paper focuses on quantifying human resources and bed needs for these three severe mental illnesses. Human resource expenditure is calculated for nursing staff at acute, ambulatory and medium-to-long-stay services. A further objective was to conduct a gap analysis for human resources and beds for the EC in order to assist mental health planners in the commissioning of services.  Methods. Data from previous research conducted in the province, and international and national epidemiological studies were utilised to quantify the requirements for human resources (psychiatrists, medical officers/registrars, psychologists, nurses, occupational therapists and social workers and beds for acute, medium-to-long-stay and ambulatory services at provincial and regional levels, to provide mental healthcare. The authors focused on three of the eight priority conditions set by the World Health Organization. A target coverage rate of 80% was used in all calculations. A gap analysis was conducted to demonstrate deficits and excesses, utilising available data on human resources and beds available in the province. Results. The results showed that the districts of Alfred Nzo and Ukhahlamba have no human resources or beds for the provision of mental health services. The province has a deficit of 23 psychiatrists and 243 nurses trained in psychiatry, and an oversupply of 486 other nurses. The results also clearly demonstrated an inequitable distribution of resources in the province.  Conclusions. This is the first study that has provided detailed estimates of human resource and bed deficits in the EC. The study demonstrates that the areas of greatest need in terms of bed and human resource requirements are in the eastern regions of the

  6. An analysis of signal characteristics due to coil-gap variation of ECT bobbin probe for steam generation tube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Min Woo; Cho, Chan Hee; Jee, Dong Hyun; Jung, Jee Hong; Lee, Hee Jong

    2006-01-01

    The bobbin probe technique is basically one of the important ECT methods for the steam generator tube integrity assesment that is practiced during each plant outage. The bobbin probe is one of the essential components which consist of the whole ECT examination system, and provides us a decisive data for the evaluation of tube integrity in compliance with acceptance criteria described in specific procedures. The selection of examination probe is especially important because the quality of acquired ECT data is determined by the probe design characteristics, geometry and operation frequencies, and has an important effect on examination results. In this study, the relationship between electric characteristic changes and differential coil gap variation has been investigated to optimize the ECT signal characteristics of the bobbin probe. With the results from this study, we have elucidated that the optimum coil gap is 1.2 - 1.6 mm that give the best result for O.D. volumetric defects in ASME calibration standards.

  7. Design and Analysis of Decision Rules via Dynamic Programming

    KAUST Repository

    Amin, Talha M.

    2017-04-24

    The areas of machine learning, data mining, and knowledge representation have many different formats used to represent information. Decision rules, amongst these formats, are the most expressive and easily-understood by humans. In this thesis, we use dynamic programming to design decision rules and analyze them. The use of dynamic programming allows us to work with decision rules in ways that were previously only possible for brute force methods. Our algorithms allow us to describe the set of all rules for a given decision table. Further, we can perform multi-stage optimization by repeatedly reducing this set to only contain rules that are optimal with respect to selected criteria. One way that we apply this study is to generate small systems with short rules by simulating a greedy algorithm for the set cover problem. We also compare maximum path lengths (depth) of deterministic and non-deterministic decision trees (a non-deterministic decision tree is effectively a complete system of decision rules) with regards to Boolean functions. Another area of advancement is the presentation of algorithms for constructing Pareto optimal points for rules and rule systems. This allows us to study the existence of “totally optimal” decision rules (rules that are simultaneously optimal with regards to multiple criteria). We also utilize Pareto optimal points to compare and rate greedy heuristics with regards to two criteria at once. Another application of Pareto optimal points is the study of trade-offs between cost and uncertainty which allows us to find reasonable systems of decision rules that strike a balance between length and accuracy.

  8. Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Sudeshna; Ray, Krishnangshu; Das, Anup Kumar

    2016-01-01

    1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients ( n = 200) of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%). Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

  9. Mind the Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, Terry; Savage, Erica; Adams, Katie; Wittie, Michael; Boone, Edna; Hayden, Andrew; Barnes, Janey; Hettinger, Zach; Gettinger, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Summary Objective Decisions made during electronic health record (EHR) implementations profoundly affect usability and safety. This study aims to identify gaps between the current literature and key stakeholders’ perceptions of usability and safety practices and the challenges encountered during the implementation of EHRs. Materials and Methods Two approaches were used: a literature review and interviews with key stakeholders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify usability and safety challenges and best practices during implementation. A total of 55 articles were reviewed through searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. We used a qualitative approach to identify key stakeholders’ perceptions; semi-structured interviews were conducted with a diverse set of health IT stakeholders to understand their current practices and challenges related to usability during implementation. We used a grounded theory approach: data were coded, sorted, and emerging themes were identified. Conclusions from both sources of data were compared to identify areas of misalignment. Results We identified six emerging themes from the literature and stakeholder interviews: cost and resources, risk assessment, governance and consensus building, customization, clinical work-flow and usability testing, and training. Across these themes, there were misalignments between the literature and stakeholder perspectives, indicating major gaps. Discussion Major gaps identified from each of six emerging themes are discussed as critical areas for future research, opportunities for new stakeholder initiatives, and opportunities to better disseminate resources to improve the implementation of EHRs. Conclusion Our analysis identified practices and challenges across six different emerging themes, illustrated important gaps, and results suggest critical areas for future research and dissemination to improve EHR implementation. PMID:27847961

  10. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

  11. The appropriateness of Multicriteria Analysis in environmental decision-making problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramaniam, A; Voulvoulis, N

    2005-09-01

    Environmental decision-making occurs in numerous environmental sectors and covers a diverse range of problems. Of the various decision tools available not all of them may be appropriate for any single decision problem, and any particular decision-aid may not be applicable in all decision problems. This article reviews applications of MCA, and considers the appropriateness of Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) in environmental decision-making problems. Due to natural and decision environments being multidimensional, environmental decision-making is characterized by complexity. Consequently MCA has commonly been used in this area. In Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) the multiple dimensions of the impacts evaluated have been easily represented in MCA as multiple criteria. Waste management and water resource planning problems involving public participation have been facilitated by MCA, through the structuring and articulation of the public's values. MCA has also been applied in water quality problems, allowing the incorporation of incommensurable criteria into evaluations. The appropriateness of MCA for environmental decision problems can be viewed in the context of a typical decision-making process, making it easier to identify the contribution MCA can make at various decision-making stages. MCA can be particularly appropriate when the decision-making context is characterized by multiple objectives and multiple criteria, incommensurable criteria, mixed data and the need for ease of use, and the analysis context is characterized by multiple participants.

  12. Bottleneck analysis at district level to illustrate gaps within the district health system in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiwanuka Henriksson, Dorcus; Fredriksson, Mio; Waiswa, Peter; Selling, Katarina; Swartling Peterson, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Poor quality of care and access to effective and affordable interventions have been attributed to constraints and bottlenecks within and outside the health system. However, there is limited understanding of health system barriers to utilization and delivery of appropriate, high-impact, and cost-effective interventions at the point of service delivery in districts and sub-districts in low-income countries. In this study we illustrate the use of the bottleneck analysis approach, which could be used to identify bottlenecks in service delivery within the district health system. A modified Tanahashi model with six determinants for effective coverage was used to determine bottlenecks in service provision for maternal and newborn care. The following interventions provided during antenatal care were used as tracer interventions: use of iron and folic acid, intermittent presumptive treatment for malaria, HIV counseling and testing, and syphilis testing. Data from cross-sectional household and health facility surveys in Mayuge and Namayingo districts in Uganda were used in this study. Effective coverage and human resource gaps were identified as the biggest bottlenecks in both districts, with coverage ranging from 0% to 66% for effective coverage and from 46% to 58% for availability of health facility staff. Our findings revealed a similar pattern in bottlenecks in both districts for particular interventions although the districts are functionally independent. The modified Tanahashi model is an analysis tool that can be used to identify bottlenecks to effective coverage within the district health system, for instance, the effective coverage for maternal and newborn care interventions. However, the analysis is highly dependent on the availability of data to populate all six determinants and could benefit from further validation analysis for the causes of bottlenecks identified.

  13. Bottleneck analysis at district level to illustrate gaps within the district health system in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiwanuka Henriksson, Dorcus; Fredriksson, Mio; Waiswa, Peter; Selling, Katarina; Swartling Peterson, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Poor quality of care and access to effective and affordable interventions have been attributed to constraints and bottlenecks within and outside the health system. However, there is limited understanding of health system barriers to utilization and delivery of appropriate, high-impact, and cost-effective interventions at the point of service delivery in districts and sub-districts in low-income countries. In this study we illustrate the use of the bottleneck analysis approach, which could be used to identify bottlenecks in service delivery within the district health system. Methods: A modified Tanahashi model with six determinants for effective coverage was used to determine bottlenecks in service provision for maternal and newborn care. The following interventions provided during antenatal care were used as tracer interventions: use of iron and folic acid, intermittent presumptive treatment for malaria, HIV counseling and testing, and syphilis testing. Data from cross-sectional household and health facility surveys in Mayuge and Namayingo districts in Uganda were used in this study. Results: Effective coverage and human resource gaps were identified as the biggest bottlenecks in both districts, with coverage ranging from 0% to 66% for effective coverage and from 46% to 58% for availability of health facility staff. Our findings revealed a similar pattern in bottlenecks in both districts for particular interventions although the districts are functionally independent. Conclusion: The modified Tanahashi model is an analysis tool that can be used to identify bottlenecks to effective coverage within the district health system, for instance, the effective coverage for maternal and newborn care interventions. However, the analysis is highly dependent on the availability of data to populate all six determinants and could benefit from further validation analysis for the causes of bottlenecks identified. PMID:28581379

  14. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  15. Informatics Systems of Decision Support and Analysis of Their Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new approach to security issues associated with the use of teleinformatics systems in the decision-making process has been presented. There is a discussion of the relationship between the security of informatics systems and the security of the decision-making process in which they are used, in particular regarding the threats resulting from the use of informatics systems and modern teleinformatics technologies. In addition, an overview of the dangers that could have a significant impact on appropriate decision-making has been performed. The paper points out the possible ways to ensure security de-pending on the type of threats encountered. In particular, threats particularly linked with the security of informatics systems supporting decision-making have been identified. (original abstract

  16. Decisions, Decisions!

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, F. Lee

    1975-01-01

    A self-instructional program on decision making was used in conjunction with workshops to introduce the staff of an instructional materials company to the decision tree process as they used it to study their own film production problem. (Author/MS)

  17. Determinants and gaps in preventive care for Indigenous Australians: a cross sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Stewart Bailie

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPotentially preventable chronic diseases are the greatest contributor to the health gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and non-Indigenous Australians. Preventive care is important for earlier detection and control of chronic disease, and a number of recent policy initiatives have aimed to enhance delivery of preventive care. We examined documented delivery of recommended preventive services for Indigenous peoples across Australia, and investigated the influence of health center and client level factors on adherence to best practice guidelines. MethodsClinical audit data from 2012-2014 for 3623 well adult clients (aged 15-54 of 101 health centers from four Australian states and territories were analyzed to determine adherence to delivery of 26 recommended preventive services classified into five different modes of care on the basis of the way in which they are delivered (eg. basic measurement; laboratory tests and imaging; assessment and brief interventions, eye, ear and oral checks; follow-up of abnormal findings. Summary statistics were used to describe the delivery of each service item across jurisdictions. Multilevel regression models were used to quantify the variation in service delivery attributable to health center and client level factors and to identify factors associated with higher quality care.ResultsDelivery of recommended preventive care varied widely between service items, with good delivery of most basic measurements but poor follow-up of abnormal findings. Health center characteristics were associated with most variation. Higher quality care was associated with Northern Territory location, urban services and smaller service population size. Client factors associated with higher quality care included age between 25-34 years, female sex and more regular attendance. ConclusionsWide variation in documented preventive care delivery, poor follow-up of abnormal findings, and system factors that

  18. Literacy skills gaps: A cross-level analysis on international and intergenerational variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suehye

    2018-01-01

    The global agenda for sustainable development has centred lifelong learning on UNESCO's Education 2030 Framework for Action. The study described in this article aimed to examine international and intergenerational variations in literacy skills gaps within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this purpose, the author examined the trend of literacy gaps in different countries using multilevel and multisource data from the OECD's Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning survey data from the third edition of the Global Report on Adult Learning and Education (GRALE III). In this article, particular attention is paid to exploring the specific effects of education systems on literacy skills gaps among different age groups. Key findings of this study indicate substantial intergenerational literacy gaps within countries as well as different patterns of literacy gaps across countries. Young generations generally outscore older adults in literacy skills, but feature bigger gaps when examined by gender and social origin. In addition, this study finds an interesting tendency for young generations to benefit from a system of Recognition, Validation and Accreditation (RVA) in closing literacy gaps by formal schooling at country level. This implies the potential of an RVA system for tackling educational inequality in initial schooling. The article concludes with suggestions for integrating literacy skills as a foundation of lifelong learning into national RVA frameworks and mechanisms at system level.

  19. Literacy skills gaps: A cross-level analysis on international and intergenerational variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suehye

    2018-02-01

    The global agenda for sustainable development has centred lifelong learning on UNESCO's Education 2030 Framework for Action. The study described in this article aimed to examine international and intergenerational variations in literacy skills gaps within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this purpose, the author examined the trend of literacy gaps in different countries using multilevel and multisource data from the OECD's Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning survey data from the third edition of the Global Report on Adult Learning and Education (GRALE III). In this article, particular attention is paid to exploring the specific effects of education systems on literacy skills gaps among different age groups. Key findings of this study indicate substantial intergenerational literacy gaps within countries as well as different patterns of literacy gaps across countries. Young generations generally outscore older adults in literacy skills, but feature bigger gaps when examined by gender and social origin. In addition, this study finds an interesting tendency for young generations to benefit from a system of Recognition, Validation and Accreditation (RVA) in closing literacy gaps by formal schooling at country level. This implies the potential of an RVA system for tackling educational inequality in initial schooling. The article concludes with suggestions for integrating literacy skills as a foundation of lifelong learning into national RVA frameworks and mechanisms at system level.

  20. Decision support in Down’s syndrome screening using multi-criteria decision analysis: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Erenbourg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: the aim of the study was to develop and pilot use of a decision support system (DSS to help women choose the option that best respects their personal values among the different screening/diagnostic tests for Down’s syndrome.Methods: value-bearing considerations were elicited through qualitative interviews. Ten women post-birth and ten health professionals working in the Obstetric Department at UC LH were interviewed. Performance data for the various possible screening strategies on these attributes were entered into a Multi-criteria Decision Analytic model using the Annalisa implementation. Participants piloted the DSS, entering necessary weights for the attributes and observing the resulting scores. Main outcome measures were DSS clarity, usefulness and feasibility in a clinical setting.Results: most participants found the DSS valuable because it stimulated women to seek information about testing and helped them focus on the main issues affecting their decisions. Annalisa proved a user-friendly DSS that helps women understand the issues around Down’s screening and diagnosis. There was unanimity that its use should be complementary to health professionals’ consultation. Most favoured offering it before consultation so that women could be better informed about options before attending the antenatal booking.Conclusions: the overall positive comments confirm that a user-friendly decision analysis-based support system can be a valuable instrument at supporting health decisions in this area. Further research is needed to assess whether the intention to make an informed choice is always best addressed by a decision support system, or these remain useful tools only to women more inclined to seek information anyhow.

  1. Parameter estimation and determinability analysis applied to Drosophila gap gene circuits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeger Johannes

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical modeling of real-life processes often requires the estimation of unknown parameters. Once the parameters are found by means of optimization, it is important to assess the quality of the parameter estimates, especially if parameter values are used to draw biological conclusions from the model. Results In this paper we describe how the quality of parameter estimates can be analyzed. We apply our methodology to assess parameter determinability for gene circuit models of the gap gene network in early Drosophila embryos. Conclusion Our analysis shows that none of the parameters of the considered model can be determined individually with reasonable accuracy due to correlations between parameters. Therefore, the model cannot be used as a tool to infer quantitative regulatory weights. On the other hand, our results show that it is still possible to draw reliable qualitative conclusions on the regulatory topology of the gene network. Moreover, it improves previous analyses of the same model by allowing us to identify those interactions for which qualitative conclusions are reliable, and those for which they are ambiguous.

  2. Exergy Analysis of Air-Gap Membrane Distillation Systems for Water Purification Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Woldemariam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Exergy analyses are essential tools for the performance evaluation of water desalination and other separation systems, including those featuring membrane distillation (MD. One of the challenges in the commercialization of MD technologies is its substantial heat demand, especially for large scale applications. Identifying such heat flows in the system plays a crucial role in pinpointing the heat loss and thermal integration potential by the help of exergy analysis. This study presents an exergetic evaluation of air-gap membrane distillation (AGMD systems at a laboratory and pilot scale. A series of experiments were conducted to obtain thermodynamic data for the water streams included in the calculations. Exergy efficiency and destruction for two different types of flat-plate AGMD were analyzed for a range of feed and coolant temperatures. The bench scale AGMD system incorporating condensation plate with more favorable heat conductivity contributed to improved performance parameters including permeate flux, specific heat demand, and exergy efficiency. For both types of AGMD systems, the contributions of the major components involved in exergy destruction were identified. The result suggested that the MD modules caused the highest fraction of destructions followed by re-concentrating tanks.

  3. Hit-And-Run enables efficient weight generation for simulation-based multiple criteria decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Basturk, Nalan; Postmus, Douwe

    2013-01-01

    Models for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) often separate per-criterion attractiveness evaluation from weighted aggregation of these evaluations across the different criteria. In simulation-based MCDA methods, such as Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, uncertainty in the

  4. Prosthetic restoration in the single-tooth gap: patient preferences and analysis of the WTP index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augusti, Davide; Augusti, Gabriele; Re, Dino

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the preference of a patients' population, according to the index of willingness to pay (WTP), against two treatments to restore a single-tooth gap: the implant-supported crown (ISC) and the 3-unit fixed partial denture prosthesis (FPDP) on natural teeth. Willingness to pay values were recorded on 107 subjects by asking the WTP from a starting bid of €2000 modifiable through monetary increases or decreases (€100). Data were collected through an individually delivered questionnaire. The characteristics of the population and choices made, the median values and WTP associations with socio-demographic parameters (Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests), correlations between variables (chi-square test in contingency tables) and significant parameters for predicting WTP values obtained in a multiple linear regression model were revealed. The 64% of patients expressed a preference for ISC, while the remaining 36% of the population chose the FPDP. The current therapeutic choice and those carried out in the past were generally in agreement (>70% of cases, P = 0.0001); a relationship was discovered between the anterior and posterior area to the same method of rehabilitation (101 of 107 cases, 94.4%). The WTP median values for ISC were of €3000 and of €2500 in the anterior and posterior areas, respectively. The smallest amount of money has been allocated for FPDP in posterior region (median of €1500). The "importance of oral care" for the patient was a significant predictor, in the regression model analysis, for the estimation of both anterior (P = 0.0003) and posterior (P replacement of a single missing tooth, showing a higher WTP index in the anterior area. Among investigated socio-demographic variables, the importance assigned by the patient to oral care appeared to influence WTP values of the rehabilitation, regardless the location of the single gap in the mouth. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John

  5. Multi-rater feedback with gap analysis: an innovative means to assess communication skill and self-insight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calhoun, Aaron W; Rider, Elizabeth A; Peterson, Eleanor; Meyer, Elaine C

    2010-09-01

    Multi-rater assessment with gap analysis is a powerful method for assessing communication skills and self-insight, and enhancing self-reflection. We demonstrate the use of this methodology. The Program for the Approach to Complex Encounters (PACE) is an interdisciplinary simulation-based communication skills program. Encounters are assessed using an expanded Kalamazoo Consensus Statement Essential Elements Checklist adapted for multi-rater feedback and gap analysis. Data from a representative conversation were analyzed. Likert and forced-choice data with gap analysis are used to assess performance. Participants were strong in Demonstrating Empathy and Providing Closure, and needed to improve Relationship Building, Gathering Information, and understanding the Patient's/Family's Perspective. Participants under-appraised their abilities in Relationship Building, Providing Closure, and Demonstrating Empathy, as well as their overall performance. The conversion of these results into verbal feedback is discussed. We describe an evaluation methodology using multi-rater assessment with gap analysis to assess communication skills and self-insight. This methodology enables faculty to identify undervalued skills and perceptual blind spots, provide comprehensive, data driven, feedback, and encourage reflection. Implementation of graphical feedback forms coupled with one-on-one discussion using the above methodology has the potential to enhance trainee self-awareness and reflection, improving the impact of educational programs. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Understanding antibiotic decision making in surgery-a qualitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charani, E; Tarrant, C; Moorthy, K; Sevdalis, N; Brennan, L; Holmes, A H

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the characteristics and culture of antibiotic decision making in the surgical specialty. A qualitative study including ethnographic observation and face-to-face interviews with participants from six surgical teams at a teaching hospital in London was conducted. Over a 3-month period: (a) 30 ward rounds (WRs) (100 h) were observed, (b) face-to-face follow-up interviews took place with 13 key informants, (c) multidisciplinary meetings on the management of surgical patients and daily practice on wards were observed. Applying these methods provided rich data for characterizing the antibiotic decision making in surgery and enabled cross-validation and triangulation of the findings. Data from the interview transcripts and the observational notes were coded and analysed iteratively until saturation was reached. The surgical team is in a state of constant flux with individuals having to adjust to the context in which they work. The demands placed on the team to be in the operating room, and to address the surgical needs of the patient mean that the responsibility for antibiotic decision making is uncoordinated and diffuse. Antibiotic decision making is considered by surgeons as a secondary task, commonly delegated to junior members of their team and occurs in the context of disjointed communication. There is lack of clarity around medical decision making for treating infections in surgical patients. The result is sub-optimal and uncoordinated antimicrobial management. Developing the role of a perioperative clinician may help to improve patient-level outcomes and optimize decision making. Copyright © 2017 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. An analysis of the buy-vs-lease decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Jonathan W; Lexa, Frank J

    2006-02-01

    This article presents a financial model to analyze the buy-vs-lease decision. The model is constructed from the perspective of a lessee with an operating lease and uses the concept of net present value, which calculates the current value of predicted cash flows in the future. Predicted cash flows of an operating lease compared with buying are presented in the model, as is the after-tax borrowing rate, the appropriate discount rate used in a model of this type. The article also discusses nonfinancial factors that may influence the buy-vs-lease decision, including the need for flexibility in working capital and the anticipated technological obsolescence of equipment.

  8. Road Safety Data, Collection, Transfer and Analysis DaCoTa. Workpackage 4, Decision Support: Deliverable 4.2: Forecasting road traffic fatalities in European countries : model definition and first results.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broughton, J. Knowles, J. Bijleveld, F.D. Commandeur, J. Antoniou, C. Papadimitriou, E. Yannis, G. Lassarre, S. Dupont, E. Martensen, H. Hermans, E. Bartolome, J. Giustianni, G. Shingo, D. & Perez, C. & Martensen, H. & Dupont, E. (Eds.)

    2012-01-01

    The aim of WP4 is to bridge the gap between research and policy to enable knowledge-based road safety management. To support road safety decision makers, this Work Package will: (1) exploit the data available for analysis by providing forecasts of the road safety situation in the different member

  9. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  10. Bellman's GAP--a language and compiler for dynamic programming in sequence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauthoff, Georg; Möhl, Mathias; Janssen, Stefan; Giegerich, Robert

    2013-03-01

    Dynamic programming is ubiquitous in bioinformatics. Developing and implementing non-trivial dynamic programming algorithms is often error prone and tedious. Bellman's GAP is a new programming system, designed to ease the development of bioinformatics tools based on the dynamic programming technique. In Bellman's GAP, dynamic programming algorithms are described in a declarative style by tree grammars, evaluation algebras and products formed thereof. This bypasses the design of explicit dynamic programming recurrences and yields programs that are free of subscript errors, modular and easy to modify. The declarative modules are compiled into C++ code that is competitive to carefully hand-crafted implementations. This article introduces the Bellman's GAP system and its language, GAP-L. It then demonstrates the ease of development and the degree of re-use by creating variants of two common bioinformatics algorithms. Finally, it evaluates Bellman's GAP as an implementation platform of 'real-world' bioinformatics tools. Bellman's GAP is available under GPL license from http://bibiserv.cebitec.uni-bielefeld.de/bellmansgap. This Web site includes a repository of re-usable modules for RNA folding based on thermodynamics.

  11. Symmetry analysis of odd- and even-frequency superconducting gap symmetries for time-reversal symmetric interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geilhufe, R. Matthias; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2018-01-01

    Odd-frequency superconductivity describes a class of superconducting states where the superconducting gap is an odd function in relative time and Matsubara frequency. We present a group theoretical analysis based on the linearized gap equation in terms of Shubnikov groups of the second kind. By discussing systems with spin-orbit coupling and an interaction kernel which is symmetric under the reversal of relative time, we show that both even- and odd-frequency gaps are allowed to occur. Specific examples are discussed for the square lattice, the octahedral lattice, and the tetragonal lattice. For irreducible representations that are even under the reversal of relative time the common combinations of s - and d -wave spin singlet and p -wave spin triplet gaps are revealed, irreducible representations that are odd under reversal of relative time give rise to s - and d -wave spin triplet and p -wave spin singlet gaps. Furthermore, we discuss the construction of a generalized Ginzburg-Landau theory in terms of the associated irreducible representations. The result complements the established classification of superconducting states of matter.

  12. A low-cost method for performing a curriculum gap-analysis in developing countries: medical school competencies in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rominski, Sarah; Donkor, Peter A; Lawson, Aaron; Danso, Kwanbena; Stern, David

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we undertook a comparison of the international, national, and local curricula of Ghanaian medical schools in order to identify any gaps. To identify gaps in the Ghanaian medical school curriculum. The Ministry of Health and the two major sites for medical education in Ghana (UGMS, KNUST) participated using the only internationally accepted and validated set of outcome standards for medical education, the Global Minimum Essential Requirements. The competencies were reviewed by two U.S. consultants (DS, SR) and then edited, revised, and validated by individuals who are deeply involved in medical education in Ghana. The KNUST team validated 6 gaps in their curriculum, and the team from UGMS identified 5. The standards were found by the U.S.-based consultants and validated by the Ghanaian team to have 6 gaps, many of which overlapped with those found in the Ghanaian medical school curricula. This analysis is a first step to determining physician training competency and an inexpensive method for identifying agreed-upon gaps in the current national requirements and local curriculum.

  13. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  14. A Survey of Enterprise Architecture Analysis Using Multi Criteria Decision Making Models (MCDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zia, Mehmooda Jabeen; Azam, Farooque; Allauddin, Maria

    System design becomes really important for software production due to continuous increase in size and complexity of software systems. It is a complex design activity to build architecture for the systems like large enterprises. Thus it is a critical issue to select the correct architecture in software engineering domain. Moreover, in enterprise architecture selection different goals and objectives must be taken into consideration as it is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Generally this field of enterprise architecture analysis has progressed from the application of linear weighting, through integer programming and linear programming to multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) models. In this paper we survey two multi-criteria decision making models (AHP, ANP) to determine that to what extent they have been used in making powerful decisions in complex enterprise architecture analysis. We have found that by using ANP model, decision makers of an enterprise can make more precise and suitable decisions in selection of enterprise architecture styles.

  15. Expected surgical competencies of an Indian medical graduate: a gap analysis using a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamkar, Arun; Bansal, Payal; Patrikar, Seema; Baxi, Gaurang

    2015-01-01

    In 2010, the Medical Council of India published the Vision 2015 document, which sought to create an 'Indian Medical Graduate' as a 'physician of first contact of the community while being globally relevant'. This vision for undergraduate medical education is proposed to be realised through a competency-based curriculum. We conducted a gap analysis using a cross-sectional survey to document surgeons' perceptions regarding competencies identified in surgery. Eight competencies specific to surgery are proposed, which formed the basis for the study. We defined sub-competencies for each of these and developed a questionnaire containing ratings of importance and ability for the sub-competencies from low to very high on a 4-point Likert scale. The questionnaire was administered to 450 surgeons attending a state-level annual conference in surgery asking them to provide the importance ratings and their own ability on those (sub) competencies when they graduated. The importance and ability ratings were ranked and a gap analysis was done. The study response rate was 69.8%. While most competencies were perceived by the surgeons as being highly important, their self-ratings revealed a statistically significant gap between importance and ability when they graduated. They also rated themselves as being more competent on some than on others. Some competencies were high on importance as well as on ability, while others were high on importance but low on ability, revealing a gap. A low importance-high ability relationship was seen for a few competencies. Competencies related to emergency and trauma care and communication had the largest gaps. The gaps identified in surgical competencies for graduating physicians are specific and have implications for the competency-based curriculum and implementation in terms of teaching, assessment and faculty development. It also has implications for seamless transition between undergraduate and postgraduate competencies, as all of these are

  16. An empirical analysis of capital structure decisions in Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.

    1999-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis investigates capital structure decisions in Dutch firms. Firms are faced with the choice from a variety of sources of financing for the funding of their activities. These choices determine the firms' capital structures. Building on the well known theorems of Modigliani and Miller,

  17. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  18. New approach to decision making by multiple criteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanicek Tomas

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many decision processes in technical and economical sciences require multiple criteria decision making. The most widely applied methods for multiple criteria evaluation of alternatives are based on the evaluation of alternatives in terms of an additive preference function. All of them require the estimation of weights of usually conflicting criteria. There are several methods how to find the weights of the criteria and how to find the evaluation of each solution in each criterion. The decision process based on simple weighted sum of values may not be the best approach in all situations. This paper contains a new approach of the evaluation of measured value set by different mathematical operators than the usually used multiple criteria evaluation methods. The approach was applied in a case study for multiple criteria evaluation. Generally, this new decision-support tool can help in various situations where different types of effects caused by a construction or reconstruction can occur. This is a very frequent situation in dealing with building defects, too.

  19. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  20. Quantitative analysis of strategic and tactical purchasing decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijboer, G.J.

    2003-01-01

    Purchasing management is a relatively new scientific research field, partly due to the fact that purchasing has only recently been recognized as a factor of strategic importance to an organization. In this thesis, the author focuses on a selection of strategic and tactical purchasing decision

  1. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  2. Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

  3. An analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  4. Agricultural lending decision: a tobit regression analysis | Olagunju ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Using data from a survey of loan applicants and bank officials from Union Bank of Nigeria and First Bank of Nigeria in south-western Nigeria, this paper empirically evaluated the determinants of loan approval decision and the size of the loan given using a Tobit regression model. With a multi-stage sampling technique, data ...

  5. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sound decision-making processes for investments in water supply systems need to be developed. This need arises from the problem observed in developing countries of a growing demand for water supply projects coupled with a lack of financial resources available to invest in them. A second problem is the selection of a ...

  6. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    The development of the highly individualistic commercial springbuck (Antidorcas marsupialis) production systems and the resulting growth in the commercial value of the springbuck has opened a new realm of game management decision making. These relatively undomesticated production systems demand sophisticated ...

  7. Analysis of Factors Affecting Decisions to Participate and Levels of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Structured questionnaire administered to the 158 respondents were used to collect cross-sectional data on factors influencing the market participation ... credit, education, cooperative society membership and minituber yam, in order to significantly increase the decision to participate in selling minituber yam and the level of ...

  8. WHY ARE THE G-20 DATA GAPS INITIATIVE AND THE SDDS PLUS RELEVANT FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY ANALYSIS?

    OpenAIRE

    ROBERT HEATH

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of the recent global crisis the international community is giving an increased focus on stability of the financial system, so-called financial stability analysis. With the increasing need for data sets to undertake this analysis, the question naturally arises as to what types of data are needed? While various data initiatives are underway, two initiatives at the forefront are: (1) the IMF/FSB G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI) created by the international statistical community and en...

  9. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    OpenAIRE

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-01-01

    The aims of the present research are: 1) to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2) to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3) how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea ...

  10. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ines Wilkens (nee Braune); Peter Schmuck

    2012-01-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a...

  11. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Xiao, Hong

    2015-12-01

    The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends. English language studies published from January 1, 1980 until October 1, 2013 were included. Electronic databases searches were supplemented by searching conference proceedings and relevant journals. Studies considered for inclusion were those using MCDA techniques within the areas of health care, and involving the participation of decision makers. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to present the publication trends. A total of 66 citations met the inclusion criteria. An increase in publication trend occurred in the years 1990, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2012. For the remaining years, the publication trend was either steady or declining. The trend shows that the number of publications reached its highest peak in 2012 (n = 9). Medical Decision Making was the dominant with the highest number published papers (n = 7). The majority of the studies were conducted in the US (n = 29). Medical Decision Making journal published the highest number of articles (n = 7). Analytic Hierarchy Process (n = 33) was the most used MCDA technique. Cancer was the most researched disease topic (n = 12). The most covered area of application was diagnosis and treatment (n = 26). The review shows that MCDA has been applied to a broad range of areas in the health care, with the use of a variety of methodological approaches. Further research is needed to develop practice guidelines for the appropriate application and reporting of MCDA methods. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsing, David L.; Hessenflow, Mark L.; Wein, Anne

    2005-01-01

    We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and

  13. Knowledge, attitude and practice GAP in family planning usage: an analysis of selected cities of Uttar Pradesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Anjali; Singh, K K; Verma, Prashant

    2016-01-01

    The GAP between the knowledge of contraception and its actual practice is well recognized in the literature of family welfare studies. The present study assessed the relation between the level of knowledge and practice of contraception among the women and sought to explore the reasons behind the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice - GAP (KAP GAP) regarding contraceptive users in six cities of Uttar Pradesh. Present analysis based on 17,643 currently married women aged 15 to 49. A Bivariate analysis ( χ 2 test) and a multivariable logistic regression were performed for the study. The highest percentages of respondents (women) were in the age group 35-49 (40-45 %) in all the districts considered. Knowledge of contraceptives was almost universal; tubal ligation and pill were the commonly known methods. Information about the contraceptive methods was mostly obtained through the husband. In the present study, there was a highly significant association ( p  cities. Health concern issues in all the districts were the most prominent reason for not using contraception. There differences in the socioeconomic and demographic factors exist, which lead to KAP GAP in the family planning (FP) usages. Therefore, in designing effective family planning programme, there is a need to understand the various factors which influence the practice of contraception.

  14. Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra (DITS): 2nd post-mortem analysis campaign and fuel retention in the gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dittmar, T.; Tsitrone, E.; Pegourie, B.; Cadez, I.; Pelicon, P.; Gauthier, E.; Languille, P.; Likonen, J.; Litnovsky, A.; Markelj, S.; Martin, C.; Mayer, M.; Pascal, J.-Y.; Pardanaud, C.; Philipps, V.; Roth, J.; Roubin, P.; Vavpetic, P.

    2011-01-01

    A dedicated study on fuel retention has been launched in Tore Supra, which includes a D wall-loading campaign and the dismantling of the main limiter (Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra, DITS project). This paper presents new results from a second post-mortem analysis campaign on 40 tiles with special emphasis on the D retention in the gaps. SIMS analysis reveals that only 1/3 of the thickness of deposits in the plasma shadowed zones are due to the DITS wall-loading campaign. As pre-DITS deposits contain less D than DITS deposits, the contribution of DITS to the D inventory is about 30-50%. The new estimate for the total amount of D retained in the Tore Supra limiter is 1.7 x 10 24 atoms, close to the previous estimate, with the gap surfaces contributing about 33%. NRA measurements show a stepped decrease of D along the gap with strong asymmetries between different gap orientations.

  15. Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  16. Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-11-01

    Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

  17. The risk evaluation of difficult substances in USES 2.0 and EUSES. A decision tree for data gap filling of Kow, Koc and BCF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beelen P van; ECO

    2000-01-01

    This report presents a decision tree for the risk evaluation of the so-called "difficult" substances with the Uniform System for the Evaluation of Substances (USES). The decision tree gives practical guidelines for the regulatory authorities to evaluate notified substances like organometallic

  18. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  19. Water supply system decision making using multicriteria analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-07-04

    Jul 4, 2005 ... HASL (2001) Impacto do saneamento básico na saúde da popu- lação. Proc. 21st Cong. Bras. Eng. Sanitária e Ambiental. João Pes- soa, Paraíba, Brasil. MORAIS DC and ALMEIDA AT (2002) Multicriteria decision-aid for implementation of water supply system. Proc. MIM 2002: 5th Int. Conf. on Managing ...

  20. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

  1. On the ethical analysis of value issues in public decision-making ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The nature, methodology, importance and implications of an ethical analysis of value issues pertaining to public decision-making is not evident. In this paper I would like to address these issues by posing the following questions: - Why is it important to focus on values in any process of public decision-making? - What is the ...

  2. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  3. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-24

    ... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

  4. Male-female discrimination: an analysis of gender gap and its determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Quintano

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the occupational dynamics have brought in significant innovations in Italy, as the increased participation of women in the labour market, that have stimulated studies about the gender wage gap, concerning the different remuneration reserved to male and female workers. In this work the Authors, following Oaxaca and Blinder approach, estimate the gap for Italian employers and proceed to its decomposition, one part due to differences in individual characteristics (endowment effect and another part due to the different returns on the same characteristics (coefficient effect, related to discrimination. Then, the gender wage gap and its decomposition is analyzed with reference to Italian macro-areas considered separately with the aim to highlight the different fundamental dynamics. The model has also been modified using the Heckmann correction to eliminate the bias due to self-selection; i.e. the different propensity to work for men and women.

  5. Cloning, sequencing and variability analysis of the gap gene from Mycoplasma hominis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mygind, Tina; Jacobsen, Iben Søgaard; Melkova, Renata

    2000-01-01

    The gap gene encodes the glycolytic enzyme glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). The gene was cloned and sequenced from the Mycoplasma hominis type strain PG21(T). The intraspecies variability was investigated by inspection of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns...... after polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the gap gene from 15 strains and furthermore by sequencing of part of the gene in eight strains. The M. hominis gap gene was found to vary more than the Escherichia coli counterpart, but the variation at nucleotide level gave rise to only a few...... amino acid substitutions. To verify that the gene was expressed in M. hominis, a polyclonal antibody was produced and tested against whole cell protein from 15 strains. The enzyme was expressed in all strains investigated as a 36-kDa protein. All strains except type strain PG21(T) showed reaction...

  6. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  7. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defechereux, Thierry; Paolucci, Francesco; Mirelman, Andrew; Youngkong, Sitaporn; Botten, Grete; Hagen, Terje P; Niessen, Louis W

    2012-02-15

    Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions.

  8. Inferring Drosophila gap gene regulatory network: a parameter sensitivity and perturbation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaandorp Jaap A

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inverse modelling of gene regulatory networks (GRNs capable of simulating continuous spatio-temporal biological processes requires accurate data and a good description of the system. If quantitative relations between genes cannot be extracted from direct measurements, an efficient method to estimate the unknown parameters is mandatory. A model that has been proposed to simulate spatio-temporal gene expression patterns is the connectionist model. This method describes the quantitative dynamics of a regulatory network in space. The model parameters are estimated by means of model-fitting algorithms. The gene interactions are identified without making any prior assumptions concerning the network connectivity. As a result, the inverse modelling might lead to multiple circuits showing the same quantitative behaviour and it is not possible to identify one optimal circuit. Consequently, it is important to address the quality of the circuits in terms of model robustness. Results Here we investigate the sensitivity and robustness of circuits obtained from reverse engineering a model capable of simulating measured gene expression patterns. As a case study we use the early gap gene segmentation mechanism in Drosophila melanogaster. We consider the limitations of the connectionist model used to describe GRN Inferred from spatio-temporal gene expression. We address the problem of circuit discrimination, where the selection criterion within the optimization technique is based of the least square minimization on the error between data and simulated results. Conclusion Parameter sensitivity analysis allows one to discriminate between circuits having significant parameter and qualitative differences but exhibiting the same quantitative pattern. Furthermore, we show that using a stochastic model derived from a deterministic solution, one can introduce fluctuations within the model to analyze the circuits' robustness. Ultimately, we show that

  9. Inferring Drosophila gap gene regulatory network: a parameter sensitivity and perturbation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomekong-Nanfack, Yves; Postma, Marten; Kaandorp, Jaap A

    2009-09-21

    Inverse modelling of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) capable of simulating continuous spatio-temporal biological processes requires accurate data and a good description of the system. If quantitative relations between genes cannot be extracted from direct measurements, an efficient method to estimate the unknown parameters is mandatory. A model that has been proposed to simulate spatio-temporal gene expression patterns is the connectionist model. This method describes the quantitative dynamics of a regulatory network in space. The model parameters are estimated by means of model-fitting algorithms. The gene interactions are identified without making any prior assumptions concerning the network connectivity. As a result, the inverse modelling might lead to multiple circuits showing the same quantitative behaviour and it is not possible to identify one optimal circuit. Consequently, it is important to address the quality of the circuits in terms of model robustness. Here we investigate the sensitivity and robustness of circuits obtained from reverse engineering a model capable of simulating measured gene expression patterns. As a case study we use the early gap gene segmentation mechanism in Drosophila melanogaster. We consider the limitations of the connectionist model used to describe GRN Inferred from spatio-temporal gene expression. We address the problem of circuit discrimination, where the selection criterion within the optimization technique is based of the least square minimization on the error between data and simulated results. Parameter sensitivity analysis allows one to discriminate between circuits having significant parameter and qualitative differences but exhibiting the same quantitative pattern. Furthermore, we show that using a stochastic model derived from a deterministic solution, one can introduce fluctuations within the model to analyze the circuits' robustness. Ultimately, we show that there is a close relation between circuit sensitivity and

  10. Credit analysis using cognitive maps as a tool to support decision making in a factoring company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Renato Ferreira Decker

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study represents a case study conducted in a factoring company in the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul. In order to support company managers, the research aimed to develop a tool to support the decision to grant credit to new customers. Aiming to better understand the problem presented, with all its complexity, a Cognitive Map of the credit analysis process was developed in a constructive way along with the maker.. Through the resulting Cognitive Map, the decision maker now possesses an important tool to describe their decisions. Such research will proceed with the development of the remaining steps necessary to build a  multicriteria decision model.

  11. [Teen pregnancy and educational gaps: Analysis of a national survey in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villalobos-Hernández, Aremis; Campero, Lourdes; Suárez-López, Leticia; Atienzo, Erika E; Estrada, Fátima; De la Vara-Salazar, Elvia

    2015-01-01

    To characterize female adolescents who have been pregnant, and to analyze the association between adolescent pregnancy and educational gaps. A cross-sectional study was conducted. Data come from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 2012), a Mexican representative survey. The set of data used is related to sociodemographic and reproductive characteristics from 1 790 women from 12 to 19 years who had begun their sexual life and had a pregnancy record. Three statistical models were adjusted to observe the association between variables. The dependent variable of the first model was the condition of previous pregnancy, the second to be pregnant at the time of data collection, and the third, educational gap. A 74.9% of the adolescents with history of pregnancy has educational gap. To have the condition of previous pregnancy is associated with living with sexual partner (OR=8.4), educational gap (OR=2.4), low socioeconomical level (OR=2.0) and school assistance (OR=0.5). To be pregnant at the time of data collection has related only to living with sexual partner (OR=9.4). The educational gap shows an association with having more than one pregnancy (OR=2.4), live with sexual partner (OR=1.6), low socioeconomical level (OR=1.8), and school assistance as protective factor (OR=0.3). It is necessary to implement effective and efficient educational public politics in order to decrease educational gap. At the same time, to guarantee and improve sexual education in the school system to prevent adolescent pregnancy.

  12. Teen pregnancy and educational gaps: Analysis of a national survey in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aremis Villalobos-Hernández

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To characterize female adolescents who have been pregnant, and to analyze the association between adolescent pregnancy and educational gaps. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted. Data come from the Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut 2012, a Mexican representative survey. The set of data used is related to sociodemographic and reproductive characteristics from 1 790 women from 12 to 19 years who had begun their sexual life and had a pregnancy record. Three statistical models were adjusted to observe the association between variables. The dependent variable of the first model was the condition of previous pregnancy, the second to be pregnant at the time of data collection, and the third, educational gap. Results. A 74.9% of the adolescents with history of pregnancy has educational gap. To have the condition of previous pregnancy is associated with living with sexual partner (OR=8.4, educational gap (OR=2.4, low socioeconomical level (OR=2.0 and school assistance (OR=0.5. To be pregnant at the time of data collection has related only to living with sexual partner (OR=9.4. The educational gap shows an association with having more than one pregnancy (OR=2.4, live with sexual partner (OR=1.6, low socioeconomical level (OR=1.8, and school assistance as protective factor (OR=0.3. Conclusion. It is necessary to implement effective and efficient educational public politics in order to decrease educational gap. At the same time, to guarantee and improve sexual education in the school system to prevent adolescent pregnancy.

  13. Simulation Analysis of a Strip Dipole Excited Electromagnetic Band-Gap (EBG) Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    ℎ) �1− 1 +1 (sin)2� . (18) The angle 2 can be calculated using Snell’s law of refraction and the angle of incidence: 2...led to a wider 1 dBi realized gain bandwidth. The pattern distortions in the H-plane were also not as prevalent in the wide-gap EBG as they were in...to the dipole lengths would require a trial and error method or optimization, there still is not much of a reason to use a wider gap for the EBG

  14. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

  15. Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

    2000-03-01

    This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

  16. Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Aldrin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the present research are: 1 to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2 to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3 how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea and opinion. Research result shows that product which has many ratings and reviews will trigger other buyers to purchase or get that product. The conclusion is that product buying decision may occur because there are some processes before making decision which are: looking for recognition and searching for problems, knowing the needs, collecting information, evaluating alternative, evaluating after buying. In those stages, buying decision on Lazada e-commerce is supported by price, promotion, service, and brand.

  17. A New Method of Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekarrizfard, S.; Shaghaghian, M. R.; Ganji, A.

    2014-12-01

    Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are widely used as practical tools to select superior projects/alternatives in water resources. However, parameter uncertainty (e.g., uncertainty in weights and performances) can significantly affects their performance in such a way that making a robust decision is too much difficult for a decision-maker. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the effect of uncertainty on ranking of alternative decisions in order to reduce the possibility of failure in selecting a robust decision. In this study, we develop a novel probabilistic methodology for sensitivity analysis of a MCDM model to determine the robustness in decisions considering uncertainty in parameters. The proposed methodology which is developed based on Advanced First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method estimates both performance and the probability of failure in ranking of alternatives. This provides additional information for decision makers to select a superior alternative with minimum risk of failure. This technique is applied to two case studies in water resources which previously evaluated using Weighted Sum Model (WSM), and the results are compared with those obtained from alternative sensitivity analysis methods, such as Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis techniques. The results show that the proposed method improves the results of Multi-criteria analysis for water resources problem by providing additional information about the robustness and risk of failure in rank of alternatives when it is compared with other sensitivity analysis methods.

  18. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria.

  19. A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

  20. Understanding the Gender Gap in School Performance among Low-Income Children: A Developmental Trajectory Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingdon, Danielle; Serbin, Lisa A.; Stack, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Internationally, girls outperform boys in overall school performance. The gender gap is particularly large among those in at-risk groups, such as children from families at economic disadvantage. This study modeled the academic trajectories of a low-income sample of boys and girls from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project across the full course…

  1. Literacy Skills Gaps: A Cross-Level Analysis on International and Intergenerational Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Suehye

    2018-01-01

    The global agenda for sustainable development has centred lifelong learning on UNESCO's Education 2030 Framework for Action. The study described in this article aimed to examine international and intergenerational variations in literacy skills gaps within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this purpose, the…

  2. Engineering Graduates' Skill Sets in the MENA Region: A Gap Analysis of Industry Expectations and Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadi, Eric; Ramadi, Serge; Nasr, Karim

    2016-01-01

    This study explored gaps between industry expectations and perceptions of engineering graduates' skill sets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study measured the importance that managers of engineers placed on 36 skills relevant to engineers. Also measured was managers' satisfaction with engineering graduates' skill sets.…

  3. New approach for regional crop yield gap analysis in the Borujen ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    enoh

    2012-03-20

    Mar 20, 2012 ... This study was performed to analyze the regional crop yield gap for potential and water-limited production situations in the cold-semiarid climate at Borujen basin, Iran. Experimental data were used for model calibration and evaluation of WOFOST as a crop growth simulation model. WOFOST divides.

  4. Air gap membrane distillation. 2. Model validation and hollow fibre module performance analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guijt, C.M.; Meindersma, G.W.; Reith, T.; de Haan, A.B.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper the experimental results of counter current flow air gap membrane distillation experiments are presented and compared with predictive model calculations. Measurements were carried out with a cylindrical test module containing a single hollow fibre membrane in the centre and a

  5. How Welfare States Shape the Gender Pay Gap: A Theoretical and Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, Hadas; Shalev, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We assess the impact of the welfare state on cross-national variation in the gender wage gap. Earnings inequality between men and women is conceptualized as resulting from their different locations in the class hierarchy, combined with the severity of wage differentials between and within classes. This decomposition contributes to identifying…

  6. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object's geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object's orientation

  7. Measles immunity gaps and the progress towards elimination: a multi-country modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentini, Filippo; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Melegaro, Alessia

    2017-10-01

    The persistent circulation of measles in both low-income and high-income countries requires a better characterisation of present epidemiological trends and existing immunity gaps across different sociodemographic settings. Serological surveys, which provide direct measures of population protection against the infection, are underexploited and often supply fragmentary estimates of population immunity. This study aims to investigate how measles immunity has changed over time across different socioeconomic settings, as a result of demographic changes and past immunisation policies. For this multi-country modelling analysis, we developed a transmission model to simulate measles circulation during the past 65 years in nine countries with distinct demographic and vaccination histories. The model was calibrated on historical serological data and used to estimate the reduction of disease burden as a result of vaccination and present age-specific residual susceptibility. Our model shows that estimated residual susceptibility to measles ranges from 3% in the UK to more than 10% in Kenya and Ethiopia. In high-income countries, such as Italy, Singapore, and South Korea, where routine first-dose administration produced more than 90% of immunised individuals, only about 20% of susceptible individuals are younger than 5 years. We also observed that the reduction in fertility that has occurred during the past decades in high-income countries has contributed to almost half of the reduction in measles incidence. In low-income countries, where fertility is high, the population is younger and routine vaccination has been suboptimum. Susceptible individuals are concentrated in early childhood, with about 60% of susceptible individuals in Ethiopia younger than 10 years. In these countries, Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) were responsible for more than 25% of immunised individuals (up to 45% in Ethiopia), mitigating the consequences of suboptimum routine vaccination coverage

  8. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Design and methodology of the Geo-social Analysis of Physicians' settlement (GAP-Study) in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groneberg, David A; Boll, Michael; Bauer, Jan

    2016-01-01

    Unequally distributed disease burdens within populations are well-known and occur worldwide. They are depending on residents' social status and/or ethnic background. Country-specific health care systems - especially the coverage and distribution of health care providers - are both a potential cause as well as an important solution for health inequalities. Registers are built of all accredited physicians and psychotherapists within the outpatient care system in German metropolises by utilizing the database of the Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. The physicians' practice neighborhood will be analyzed under socioeconomic and demographic perspectives. Therefore, official city districts' statistics will be assigned to the physicians and psychotherapists according to their practice location. Averages of neighborhood indicators will be calculated for each specialty. Moreover, advanced studies will inspect differences by physicians' gender or practice type. Geo-spatial analyses of the intra-city practices distribution will complete the settlement characteristics of physicians and psychotherapists within the outpatient care system in German metropolises. The project "Geo-social Analysis of Physicians' settlement" (GAP) is designed to elucidate gaps of physician coverage within the outpatient care system, dependent on neighborhood residents' social status or ethnics in German metropolises. The methodology of the GAP-Study enables the standardized investigation of physicians' settlement behavior in German metropolises and their inter-city comparisons. The identification of potential gaps within the physicians' coverage should facilitate the delineation of approaches for solving health care inequality problems.

  10. Yield gap analysis in long-term experiments with intensive rice cultivation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laureles, E.V.; Correa, T. Jr.; Buresh, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term continuous cropping experiment at IRRI is cultivated with three rice crops in a year, making it the world's most intensively cropped long-term rice experiment. The availability of comprehensive rice production records, compiled weather data, and tested crop models provides a means to evaluate long-term trends in measured and potential yields and yield gaps in this rice production system. Yield trends were assessed using the highest yielding cultivar in each cropping season from 1979 to 2005. Potential yield of the highest yielding cultivar in each season was determined using three rice models (ORYZA, TERM, and CERES) run with the actual transplanting and harvest dates for the cultivar. The yield gap was determined from the difference between the simulated potential grain yield and the measured grain yield. Measured and potential yields and the yield gap varied across seasons and years. Measured yields were higher in the dry season than in the early and late wet seasons. The yield gap tended to be higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Climatic parameters, particularly solar radiation, influenced the performance of rice cultivars. The relatively larger yield gaps in the late wet season than in the dry season were associated with increased spikelet sterility. The cumulative measured yield for the three annual rice crop was near 80 percent of the annual yield potential in years with best practices for fertilizer N and crop management. The long term trends suggest that effective timing and rates of N fertilization and effective control of diseases were critical in achieving 80 percent of the annual yield potential

  11. A Pragmatic Study on the Service Gap Analysis of an Indian Public Sector Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rengasamy Nalini

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Customers are the major stakeholders and their satisfaction forms the basis of the sustainable competitive advantage of the firm. Attracting, satisfying and retaining customers lead to extended customer base and increased profit margins. Thus, the customer satisfaction is the ultimate objective of the firm which is possible by rendering quality service. The State Bank of India (SBI ranks as 67th in the list of largest banks in the world based on market capitalization as of March 31th 2014. The quality of service extended by the SBI has resulted in customer satisfaction and expanded customer base for the bank. Random sampling method is adopted for the collection of data from the respondents. In Tiruchirappalli regional office of State Bank of India, area operations are selected within 10 Kilometer radius from the Main branch and 60 questionnaires per branch have been distributed in 10 branches. Out of 600 questionnaires, 109 are found incomplete and 491 are fully complete with 81.83% of response rate. The data collected were analysed with the help of MS Excel to identify the gaps. The Cronbach alpha, a measure of internal consistency obtained is 0.925 which is considered to be excellent. This study aims to identify the gaps in the dimensions of service quality by administering SERVQUAL model among the customers in State Bank of India. An overall weighted SERVQUAL score of –1.42866 was arrived, representing a significant inconsistency in meeting customer expectations across all service dimensions. Highest gap scores for reliability and empathy depicts that there is a need for courtesy and politeness among SBI employees which in turn will help to establish a long term relationship with the customers. The relatively low gap scores were found for responsiveness, tangibles and assurance dimensions. The State Bank of India has to take steps to close the gaps and it can be closed by establishing and implementing a service quality information system.

  12. FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

  13. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System Analysis for the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the San Diego Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ICM pr...

  14. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation - Dallas decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System (DSS) Analysis for the : United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the Dallas U.S. 75 Integrated : Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstrat...

  15. Sensitivity analysis in discrete multiple criteria decision problems: on the siting of nuclear power plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.; Rietveld, P.

    1989-01-01

    Inclusion of evaluation methods in decision support systems gives way to extensive sensitivity analysis. In this article new methods for sensitivityanalysis are developed and applied to the siting of nuclear power plants in the Netherlands.

  16. A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  17. SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) MODIS GULF SUBSETTED V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) MODIS Gulf Subsetted dataset consists of daytime images for Terra and Aqua MODIS Reflectance bands 8-16,...

  18. Upaya Peningkatan Kualitas Pelayanan Jalan Tol Semarang-bawen Dengan Integrasi Metode Importance Performance Gap Analysis, Lean, Dan Six Sigma

    OpenAIRE

    Sari, Diana Puspita; Winanda, Ariani Putri; Bakhtiar, Arfan; Rinawati, Dyah Ika; Widharto, Yusuf

    2017-01-01

    PT Trans Marga Jateng (TMJ) is a company engaged in service sector, which is managing Semarang-Bawen toll road. The result of preliminary surveyconducted by PT TMJ showed that service quality of PT TMJ is still unsatisfactory, so it is necessary to do research on improving service quality. Service quality can be measured from two perspectives, i.e., internal perspective and external perspective. The external perspective can be measured with Importance Performance Gap Analysis (IPGA) method, w...

  19. Analysis of rice purchase decision on rice consumer in Bandung city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusno, K.; Imannurdin, A.; Syamsiyah, N.; Djuwendah, E.

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted at three kinds of purchase location which were traditional market, rice kiosk, and supermarket in Bandung City, with survey data of 108 respondents which were selected by systematic random sampling. The aim of this study is to (1) identify consumer characteristics, (2) identify which atribute is considered by consumer in buying rice, and (3) analyze the relationship between purchase decision and income class. Data were analyzed by descriptive analysis and Chi Square test. The results showed most consumers in the traditional market were middle-educated and lower middle-income, at the rice kiosk, the consumer were generally middle-educated and middle-income, and in the supermarkets, the majority were high-educated and upper middle-income consumers. “Kepulenan” be the first priority of most consumers, but for the lower-middle class, the main priority was price. Thus, in case of scarcity and rice price increase, the government should immediately arrange market operations which targeting to lower-middle class consumers. There was a significant relationship between (1) the quality of rice consumed, (2) the frequency of rice purchase per month, and (3) attitudes toward rice price increase; each with the income class. Although the price of rice increase, consumers of middle and upper-middle were remain loyal to the quality of rice they consumed. This indicates rice market in Bandung city is an ideal market for premium rice so that traders and producers are expected to maintain the quality of rice, such as keep using superior seeds and applying good cultivation based on Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) rules.

  20. How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

  1. Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

    2017-01-01

    Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

  2. Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

  3. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  4. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  5. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers......Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

  6. Ship Engine Room Casualty Analysis by Using Decision Tree Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömür Yaşar SAATÇİOĞLU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Ships may encounter undesirable conditions during operations. In consequence of a casualty, fire, explosion, flooding, grounding, injury even death may occur. Besides, these results can be avoidable with precautions and preventive operating processes. In maritime transportation, casualties depend on various factors. These were listed as misuse of the engine equipment and tools, defective machinery or equipment, inadequacy of operational procedure and measure of safety and force majeure effects. Casualty reports which were published in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Canada and United States until 2015 were examined and the probable causes and consequences of casualties were determined with their occurrence percentages. In this study, 89 marine investigation reports regarding engine room casualties were analyzed. Casualty factors were analyzed with their frequency percentages and also their main causes were constructed. This study aims to investigate engine room based casualties, frequency of each casualty type and main causes by using decision tree method.

  7. Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decisionmaking framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grégoire Jean-Pierre

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objectives To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH for Turner syndrome (TS as a complex case study. Methods The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics, with a qualitative tool including six ethical and health system-related components of decision. An extensive review of the literature was performed to develop a health technology assessment report (HTA tailored to each component of decision, and content was validated by experts. A panel of representative stakeholders then estimated the MCDA value of GH for TS in Canada by assigning weights and scores to each MCDA component of decision and then considered the impact of non-quantifiable components of decision. Results Applying the framework revealed significant data gaps and the importance of aligning research questions with data needs to truly inform decision. Panelists estimated the value of GH for TS at 41% of maximum value on the MCDA scale, with good agreement at the individual level (retest value 40%; ICC: 0.687 and large variation across panelists. Main contributors to this panel specific value were "Improvement of efficacy", "Disease severity" and "Quality of evidence". Ethical considerations on utility, efficiency and fairness as well as potential misuse of GH had mixed effects on the perceived value of the treatment. Conclusions This framework is proposed as a pragmatic step beyond the current cost-effectiveness model, combining HTA, MCDA, values and ethics. It supports systematic consideration of all components of decision and available evidence for greater transparency. Further testing and validation is needed to build up MCDA approaches combined with pragmatic HTA in healthcare decisionmaking.

  8. Decision curve analysis as a framework to estimate the potential value of screening or other decision-making aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Michael S; Wells, George A; Crocker, Anne G; Potter, Beth K; Colman, Ian

    2018-03-01

    There is an increasing debate about the impact of mental health screening. We illustrate the use of a decision making framework that can be applied when there is no sufficient data to support a traditional cost-benefit analysis. We conducted secondary analyses of data from 459 male prisoners who were screened upon intake. We compared the potential benefit of different approaches (screening, history taking, and universal interventions) to allocating treatment resources using decision curve analysis. Screening prisoners for distress at typical levels of sensitivity (75%) and specificity (71%) were estimated to provide the greatest net benefit if between 2 and 5 false positives per detected illness are tolerable. History taking and self-harm screening provide the largest net benefit when only 1 or 2 false positives per detected illness would be tolerable. The benefits of screening were less among those without a recent psychiatric history, ethnic minorities, and those with fewer psychosocial needs. Although screening has potential to increase detection of treatment, important subgroup differences exist. Greater consideration of responses to positive screens or alternatives to screening are needed to maximize the impact of efforts to improve detection and treatment of mental illness. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. USER PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS ON E-INFORMATION LITERACY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMMES: A GAP ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaminda Chiran Jayasundara

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper discuses the user perceptions and expectations of postgraduate students of the University of Colombo towards the e-information literacy skills development programme conducted by the library. Data was collected from 21 individuals through semi-structured questionnaire using gap theory. Overall, students satisfy with the quality of the programme and found three impediments to develop the service such as staff attitude, lack of mentoring and high customer demand.

  10. Explaining the Female Black-White Obesity Gap: A Decomposition Analysis of Proximal Causes

    OpenAIRE

    Johnston, David W.; Lee, Wang-Sheng

    2011-01-01

    There exists remarkably large differences in body weights and obesity prevalence between black and white women in the US, and crucially these differences are a significant contributor to black-white inequalities in health. In this paper, we investigate the most proximal explanations for the weight gap, namely differences in diet and exercise. More specifically, we decompose black-white differences in body mass index and waist-to-height ratio into components reflecting black-white differences ...

  11. Do The Maths: An Analysis Of The Gender Gap In Mathematics In Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Andy Dickerson; Steven McIntosh; Christine Valente

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses microdata for 19 African countries to examine the gender difference in maths test scores amongst primary school children. There is a significant difference in maths test scores in favour of boys, similar to that previously observed in developed countries. This difference cannot be explained by gender differences in school quality, home environment, or within-school gender discrimination in access to schooling inputs. However, the gender gap varies widely with characteristics o...

  12. single crystal growth, x-ray structure analysis, optical band gap

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-09-01

    Sep 1, 2015 ... Hg...Hgand Cl...Cl interactions are stabilizing the structures in 3D pattern. UV-vis absorption spectra illustrate the change in opticalband gap from 3.01eVto 3.42eV on replacing the metal halide group.Raman and Hyper-Raman tensors calculations were performed based on single crystal X-ray data and the ...

  13. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  14. Assessing cetacean surveys throughout the Mediterranean Sea: a gap analysis in environmental space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannocci, Laura; Roberts, Jason J; Halpin, Patrick N; Authier, Matthieu; Boisseau, Oliver; Bradai, Mohamed Nejmeddine; Cañadas, Ana; Chicote, Carla; David, Léa; Di-Méglio, Nathalie; Fortuna, Caterina M; Frantzis, Alexandros; Gazo, Manel; Genov, Tilen; Hammond, Philip S; Holcer, Draško; Kaschner, Kristin; Kerem, Dani; Lauriano, Giancarlo; Lewis, Tim; Notarbartolo di Sciara, Giuseppe; Panigada, Simone; Raga, Juan Antonio; Scheinin, Aviad; Ridoux, Vincent; Vella, Adriana; Vella, Joseph

    2018-02-15

    Heterogeneous data collection in the marine environment has led to large gaps in our knowledge of marine species distributions. To fill these gaps, models calibrated on existing data may be used to predict species distributions in unsampled areas, given that available data are sufficiently representative. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of mapping cetacean densities across the entire Mediterranean Sea using models calibrated on available survey data and various environmental covariates. We aggregated 302,481 km of line transect survey effort conducted in the Mediterranean Sea within the past 20 years by many organisations. Survey coverage was highly heterogeneous geographically and seasonally: large data gaps were present in the eastern and southern Mediterranean and in non-summer months. We mapped the extent of interpolation versus extrapolation and the proportion of data nearby in environmental space when models calibrated on existing survey data were used for prediction across the entire Mediterranean Sea. Using model predictions to map cetacean densities in the eastern and southern Mediterranean, characterised by warmer, less productive waters, and more intense eddy activity, would lead to potentially unreliable extrapolations. We stress the need for systematic surveys of cetaceans in these environmentally unique Mediterranean waters, particularly in non-summer months.

  15. Finite Element Analysis of Composite Joint Configurations with Gaps and Overlaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the current study is to identify scenarios for which thermal and moisture effects become significant in the loading of a composite structure. In the current work, a simple configuration was defined, and material properties were selected. A Fortran routine was created to automate the mesh generation process. The routine was used to create the models for the initial mesh refinement study. A combination of element length and width suitable for further studies was identified. Also, the effect of the overlap length and gap length on computed shear and through-thickness stresses along the bondline of the joints was studied for the mechanical load case. Further, the influence of neighboring gaps and overlaps on these joint stresses was studied and was found to be negligible. The results suggest that for an initial study it is sufficient to focus on one configuration with fixed overlap and gap lengths to study the effects of mechanical, thermal and moisture loading and combinations thereof on computed joint stresses

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a forest gap model concerning current and future climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasch, P.; Suckow, F.; Buerger, G.; Lindner, M.

    1998-07-01

    The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes. In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA{sub -}P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially. (orig.)

  17. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

  18. Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, T.C.; Maigan, M.; Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bolshov, L.A.; Demianov, V.V.

    1996-01-01

    The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

  19. Degeneracy analysis for a supercell of a photonic crystal and its application to the creation of band gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Liang; Zhuang Fie; He Sailing

    2003-01-01

    A method is introduced to analyze the degeneracy properties of the band structure of a photonic crystal by making use of supercells. The band structure associated with a supercell of a photonic crystal has degeneracies at the edge of the Brillouin zone if the photonic crystal has some kind of point group symmetry. The E-polarization and H-polarization cases have the same degeneracies for a two-dimensional (2D) photonic crystal. Two theorems on degeneracies in the band structure associated with the supercell are given and proved. These degeneracies can be lifted to create photonic band gaps by changing the translation group symmetry of the photonic crystal (the point group symmetry of the photonic crystal may remain unchanged), which consequently changes the transform matrix between the supercell and the smallest unit cell. The existence of photonic band gaps for many known 2D photonic crystals is explained through the degeneracy analysis. Some structures with large band gaps are also found through the present degeneracy analysis

  20. New approach for regional crop yield gap analysis in the Borujen ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Borujen Basin has semiarid climatic conditions with cold winter and winter precipitation. For the sake of it, temperature was a decisive factor during rainfall seasons, limiting the crop growth period. This study demonstrates that WOFOST model can be used to analyze cropping systems and accurately simulate regional wheat ...

  1. Geospatial Analysis Platform and tools: supporting planning and decision making across scales, borders, sectors and disciplines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naude, AH

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper will (1) build an argument for the importance and challenges of connecting across scales and borders and between sectors, (2) provide a brief overview of GAP2 in terms of its geo-spatial analysis platform, the way in which it facilitates...

  2. Individual relocation decisions after tornadoes: a multi-level analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cong, Zhen; Nejat, Ali; Liang, Daan; Pei, Yaolin; Javid, Roxana J

    2018-04-01

    This study examines how multi-level factors affected individuals' relocation decisions after EF4 and EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale) tornadoes struck the United States in 2013. A telephone survey was conducted with 536 respondents, including oversampled older adults, one year after these two disaster events. Respondents' addresses were used to associate individual information with block group-level variables recorded by the American Community Survey. Logistic regression revealed that residential damage and homeownership are important predictors of relocation. There was also significant interaction between these two variables, indicating less difference between homeowners and renters at higher damage levels. Homeownership diminished the likelihood of relocation among younger respondents. Random effects logistic regression found that the percentage of homeownership and of higher income households in the community buffered the effect of damage on relocation; the percentage of older adults reduced the likelihood of this group relocating. The findings are assessed from the standpoint of age difference, policy implications, and social capital and vulnerability. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  3. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  4. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  5. Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dongen, J.M.; Tompa, E.; Clune, L.; Sarnocinska-Hart, A.; Bongers, P.M.; van Tulder, M.W.; van der Beek, A.J.; van Wier, M.F.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence

  6. Analysis of flow boiling heat transfer in narrow annular gaps applying the design of experiments method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunar Boye

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The axial heat transfer coefficient during flow boiling of n-hexane was measured using infrared thermography to determine the axial wall temperature in three geometrically similar annular gaps with different widths (s = 1.5 mm, s = 1 mm, s = 0.5 mm. During the design and evaluation process, the methods of statistical experimental design were applied. The following factors/parameters were varied: the heat flux q · = 30 − 190 kW / m 2 , the mass flux m · = 30 − 700 kg / m 2 s , the vapor quality x · = 0 . 2 − 0 . 7 , and the subcooled inlet temperature T U = 20 − 60 K . The test sections with gap widths of s = 1.5 mm and s = 1 mm had very similar heat transfer characteristics. The heat transfer coefficient increases significantly in the range of subcooled boiling, and after reaching a maximum at the transition to the saturated flow boiling, it drops almost monotonically with increasing vapor quality. With a gap width of 0.5 mm, however, the heat transfer coefficient in the range of saturated flow boiling first has a downward trend and then increases at higher vapor qualities. For each test section, two correlations between the heat transfer coefficient and the operating parameters have been created. The comparison also shows a clear trend of an increasing heat transfer coefficient with increasing heat flux for test sections s = 1.5 mm and s = 1.0 mm, but with increasing vapor quality, this trend is reversed for test section 0.5 mm.

  7. Gap Analysis of Educational Services Quality based on SERVQUAL Model from Iranian Medical Students’ Viewpoint (2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roohangiz Norouzinia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Identifying service recipients’ perceptions and evaluating service quality are the basic steps toward compiling quality assurance programs. In this regard, the present study aimed to determine the quality of educational services using service quality (SERVQUAL model and from students’ viewpoint. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 176 Iranian students of Alborz University of Medical Sciences in 2014 who were selected trough stratified random sampling. Students' perceptions and expectations of educational service quality were measured through a questionnaire that was designed according to SERVQUAL approach based on five dimensions of assurance, responsiveness, empathy, reliability and tangibles. Data was analyzed by the SPSS 21 software through paired-sample t-test and one-way ANOVA statistical tests. Results: The results revealed that, in all five dimensions of SERVQUAL, students’ expectations were higher than their perceptions and there was a significant quality gap between their perceived and expected educational services provision. The highest and the lowest quality gaps belonged to the tangibility (1.16 and reliability (1.03 dimensions, respectively. Moreover, The empathy’s sub-dimensions of "exterior attractiveness of physical facilities like buildings, classrooms, chairs, and restrooms" and "respectful behavior of teachers toward students" showed the highest -1.93 and the lowest (-0.80 quality gaps, respectively. Also, the results showed that there was a significant difference between the mean scores of different majors in all aspects of service quality and significant differences in empathy, reliability and tangibles dimensions between the different academic degrees (P<0.05. Conclusion: According to the results, the quality of current services provided by this public university was not meeting the expectations of students particularly in case of physical space of faculties. Thus, it is recommended to

  8. Map design and production issues for the Utah Gap Analysis Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, John A.; Wittmann, J.H.

    1997-01-01

    The cartographic preparation and printing of four maps for the Utah GAP Project presented a wide range of challenges in cartographic design and production. In meeting these challenges, the map designers had to balance the purpose of the maps together with their legibility and utility against both the researchers' desire to show as much detail as possible and the technical limitations inherent in the printing process. This article describes seven design and production issues in order to illustrate the challenges of making maps from a merger of satellite data and GIS databases, and to point toward future investigation and development.

  9. Integrating recent land cover mapping efforts to update the National Gap Analysis Program's species habitat map

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKerrow, Alexa; Davidson, A.; Earnhardt, Todd; Benson, Abigail L.; Toth, Charles; Holm, Thomas; Jutz, Boris

    2014-01-01

    Over the past decade, great progress has been made to develop national extent land cover mapping products to address natural resource issues. One of the core products of the GAP Program is range-wide species distribution models for nearly 2000 terrestrial vertebrate species in the U.S. We rely on deductive modeling of habitat affinities using these products to create models of habitat availability. That approach requires that we have a thematically rich and ecologically meaningful map legend to support the modeling effort. In this work, we tested the integration of the Multi-Resolution Landscape Characterization Consortium's National Land Cover Database 2011 and LANDFIRE's Disturbance Products to update the 2001 National GAP Vegetation Dataset to reflect 2011 conditions. The revised product can then be used to update the species models. We tested the update approach in three geographic areas (Northeast, Southeast, and Interior Northwest). We used the NLCD product to identify areas where the cover type mapped in 2011 was different from what was in the 2001 land cover map. We used Google Earth and ArcGIS base maps as reference imagery in order to label areas identified as "changed" to the appropriate class from our map legend. Areas mapped as urban or water in the 2011 NLCD map that were mapped differently in the 2001 GAP map were accepted without further validation and recoded to the corresponding GAP class. We used LANDFIRE's Disturbance products to identify changes that are the result of recent disturbance and to inform the reassignment of areas to their updated thematic label. We ran species habitat models for three species including Lewis's Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) and the White-tailed Jack Rabbit (Lepus townsendii) and Brown Headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla). For each of three vertebrate species we found important differences in the amount and location of suitable habitat between the 2001 and 2011 habitat maps. Specifically, Brown headed nuthatch habitat in

  10. Analysis of photonic band-gap (PBG) structures using the FDTD method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, M.S.; Cheng, M.; Lu, Y.L.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a number of photonic band-gap (PBG) structures, which are formed by periodic circuit elements printed oil transmission-line circuits, are studied by using a well-known numerical method, the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method. The results validate the band-stop filter...... behavior of these structures, and the computed results generally match well with ones published in the literature. It is also found that the FDTD method is a robust, versatile, and powerful numerical technique to perform such numerical studies. The proposed PBG filter structures may be applied in microwave...

  11. An analysis of hot plate initial temperature effect on rectangular narrow gap quenching process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M-Hadi Kusuma; Mulya Juarsa; Anhar Riza Antariksawan; Nandy Putra

    2012-01-01

    The understanding about thermal management in the event of a severe accident such as the melting nuclear reactor fuel and reactor core, became a priority to maintain the integrity of reactor pressure vessel. Thus the debris will not out from the reactor pressure vessel and resulting impact of more substantial to the environment. One way to maintain the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel was cooling of the excess heat generated due to the accident. To get understanding of this aspect, there search focused on the effect of the initial temperature of the hot plate in the rectangular narrow gap quenching process. The initial temperature effect on quenching process is related to cooling process (thermal management) when the occurrence of a nuclear accident due to loss of coolant accident or severe accident. In order to address the problem, it is crucial to conduct research to get a better understanding of thermal management regarding to nuclear cooling accident. The research focused on determining the rewetting temperature of hot plate cooling on 220°C, 400°C, and 600°C with 0.2 liters/sec cooling water flowrate. Experiments were carried out by injecting 85°C cooling water temperature into the narrow gap at flowrates of 0.2 liters/sec. Data of transient temperature measurements were recorded using a data acquisition system in order to know the rewetting temperature during the quenching process. This study aims to understand the effect of hot plate initial temperature on rewetting during rectangular narrow gap quenching process. The results obtained show that the rewetting point on cooling the hot plate 220°C, 400°C and 600°occurs at varying rewetting temperatures. At 220°C hot plate initial temperature, the rewetting temperature occurs on 220°C. At 400°C hot plate initial temperature, the rewetting temperature occurs on 379.51°C. At 600°C hot plate initial temperature, the rewetting temperature occurs on 426.63°C. Significant differences of hot plate

  12. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  13. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

  14. An Analysis on Performance of Decision Tree Algorithms using Student’s Qualitative Data

    OpenAIRE

    T.Miranda Lakshmi; A.Martin; R.Mumtaj Begum; V.Prasanna Venkatesan

    2013-01-01

    Decision Tree is the most widely applied supervised classification technique. The learning and classification steps of decision tree induction are simple and fast and it can be applied to any domain. In this research student qualitative data has been taken from educational data mining and the performance analysis of the decision tree algorithm ID3, C4.5 and CART are compared. The comparison result shows that the Gini Index of CART influence information Gain Ratio of ID3 and C4.5. The classif...

  15. Proof of patient information: Analysis of 201 judicial decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugleux, E; Rached, H; Rougé-Maillart, C

    2018-02-15

    The ruling by the French Court of Cassation dated February 25, 1997 obliged doctors to provide proof of the information given to patients, reversing more than half a century of case law. In October 1997, it was specified that such evidence could be provided by "all means", including presumption. No hierarchy in respect of means of proof has been defined by case law or legislation. The present study analyzed judicial decisions with a view to determining the means of proof liable to carry the most weight in a suit for failure to provide due patient information. A retrospective qualitative study was conducted for the period from January 2010 to December 2015, by a search on the LexisNexis ® JurisClasseur website. Two hundred and one judicial decisions relating to failure to provide due patient information were selected and analyzed to study the characteristics of the practitioners involved, the content of the information at issue and the means of proof provided. The resulting cohort of practitioners was compared with the medical demographic atlas of the French Order of Medicine, considered as exhaustive. Two hundred and one practitioners were investigated for failure to provide information: 45 medical practitioners (22±3%), and 156 surgeons (78±3%) including 45 orthopedic surgeons (29±3.6% of surgeons). Hundred and ninety-three were private sector (96±1.3%) and 8 public sector (4±1.3%). Hundred and one surgeons (65±3.8% of surgeons), and 26 medical practitioners (58±7.4%) were convicted. Twenty-five of the 45 orthopedic surgeons were convicted (55±7.5%). There was no significant difference in conviction rates between surgeons and medical practitioners: odds ratio, 1.339916; 95% CI [0.6393982; 2.7753764] (Chi 2 test: p=0.49). Ninety-two practitioners based their defense on a single means of proof, and 74 of these were convicted (80±4.2%). Forty practitioners based their defense on several means of proof, and 16 of these were convicted (40±7.8%). There was

  16. Knowledge Gaps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyles, Marjorie; Pedersen, Torben; Petersen, Bent

    2003-01-01

    , assimilating, and utilizing knowledge - are crucial determinants ofknowledge gap elimination. In contrast, the two factors deemed essential in traditionalinternationalization process theory - elapsed time of operations and experientiallearning - are found to have no or limited effect.Key words......: Internationalization, knowledge gap, absorptive capacity, learning box....

  17. Gap Resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-04-25

    Gap Resolution is a software package that was developed to improve Newbler genome assemblies by automating the closure of sequence gaps caused by repetitive regions in the DNA. This is done by performing the follow steps:1) Identify and distribute the data for each gap in sub-projects. 2) Assemble the data associated with each sub-project using a secondary assembler, such as Newbler or PGA. 3) Determine if any gaps are closed after reassembly, and either design fakes (consensus of closed gap) for those that closed or lab experiments for those that require additional data. The software requires as input a genome assembly produce by the Newbler assembler provided by Roche and 454 data containing paired-end reads.

  18. Gap junctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenough, Daniel A; Paul, David L

    2009-07-01

    Gap junctions are aggregates of intercellular channels that permit direct cell-cell transfer of ions and small molecules. Initially described as low-resistance ion pathways joining excitable cells (nerve and muscle), gap junctions are found joining virtually all cells in solid tissues. Their long evolutionary history has permitted adaptation of gap-junctional intercellular communication to a variety of functions, with multiple regulatory mechanisms. Gap-junctional channels are composed of hexamers of medium-sized families of integral proteins: connexins in chordates and innexins in precordates. The functions of gap junctions have been explored by studying mutations in flies, worms, and humans, and targeted gene disruption in mice. These studies have revealed a wide diversity of function in tissue and organ biology.

  19. Impact of the gap between socioeconomic stratum and subjective social class on depressive symptoms: unique insights from a longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae-Hyun; Lee, Sang Gyu; Shin, Jaeyong; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2014-11-01

    Our objective was to investigate whether gaps between socioeconomic stratum and subjective social class affect the prevalence of depressive symptoms. We collected data from the Korean Health Panel Survey, years 2009 and 2011, and performed a longitudinal analysis of 12,357 individuals at baseline (2009), estimating the prevalence of depressive symptoms among individuals with disparate socioeconomic stratum (High, Middle, or Low household income and education level, respectively) and subjective social class (High, Middle, or Low). The odds ratio for depressive symptoms among individuals with High household income and High social class, or Low household income and Low social class, was 0.537 and 1.877, respectively (psocial class, or Low education and Low social class, was 0.700 and 1.597, respectively (p: 0.001, psocial class decreased from High to Low. The adjusted effect of the gap between socioeconomic stratum and subjective social class on depressive symptoms deteriorated, as a whole, across the socioeconomic spectrum. The gap between socioeconomic stratum and perceived position in the social hierarchy explains a substantial part of inequalities in the prevalence of depressive symptoms. It is important to consider the impact of discrepancies between different measures of socioeconomic well-being on depressive symptoms rather than looking at the subjective social class alone. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessing university’s sustainability programs from the perspective of university students: a gap analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulkhaq M. Mujiya

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of universities in promoting sustainability has outstretched over the past decades as a result of abundant declarations related to the need for sustainability in higher education. As consequences, several universities have integrated sustainability into their curricula, research, programs, projects, partnerships, and assessments. However, despite the need for sustainable development in today’s highly competitive global network, many university members especially students are still unaware or ignorant of sustainability practices. This research tried to analyse the gap between what the university has done in campaigning for sustainability and what the students have perceived. A case study is conducted in Diponegoro University, Indonesia. Twelve indicators of four variables, i.e., community outreach; sustainability commitment and monitoring; waste and energy; as well as land use and planning are used to accomplish this research. Three hundred and fortyfive students spreading from all faculties participated in the survey. The result shows that an average gap of –0.38 is revealed; indicating that the respondents did not consider a significant impact on the sustainability programs. In addition, more than 50% of the respondents were not familiar with the sustainability programs. It is suggested that the university has to put more attention in fostering sustainability to its biggest stakeholders.

  1. Prevention of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder: Current Canadian Efforts and Analysis of Gaps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Poole

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective prevention of risky alcohol use in pregnancy involves much more than providing information about the risk of potential birth defects and developmental disabilities in children. To categorize the breadth of possible initiatives, Canadian experts have identified a four-part framework for fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD prevention: Level 1, public awareness and broad health promotion; Level 2, conversations about alcohol with women of childbearing age and their partners; Level 3, specialized support for pregnant women; and Level 4, postpartum support for new mothers. In order to describe the level of services across Canada, 50 Canadian service providers, civil servants, and researchers working in the area of FASD prevention were involved in an online Delphi survey process to create a snapshot of current FASD prevention efforts, identify gaps, and provide ideas on how to close these gaps to improve FASD prevention. Promising Canadian practices and key areas for future action are described. Overall, Canadian FASD prevention programming reflects evidence-based practices; however, there are many opportunities to improve scope and availability of these initiatives.

  2. Initiating decision-making conversations in palliative care: an ethnographic discourse analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bélanger, Emmanuelle; Rodríguez, Charo; Groleau, Danielle; Légaré, France; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Marchand, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Conversations about end-of-life care remain challenging for health care providers. The tendency to delay conversations about care options represents a barrier that impedes the ability of terminally-ill patients to participate in decision-making. Family physicians with a palliative care practice are often responsible for discussing end-of-life care preferences with patients, yet there is a paucity of research directly observing these interactions. In this study, we sought to explore how patients and family physicians initiated decision-making conversations in the context of a community hospital-based palliative care service. This qualitative study combined discourse analysis with ethnographic methods. The field research lasted one year, and data were generated through participant observation and audio-recordings of consultations. A total of 101 consultations were observed longitudinally between 18 patients, 6 family physicians and 2 pivot nurses. Data analysis consisted in exploring the different types of discourses initiating decision-making conversations and how these discourses were affected by the organizational context in which they took place. The organization of care had an impact on decision-making conversations. The timing and origin of referrals to palliative care shaped whether patients were still able to participate in decision-making, and the decisions that remained to be made. The type of decisions to be made also shaped how conversations were initiated. Family physicians introduced decision-making conversations about issues needing immediate attention, such as symptom management, by directly addressing or eliciting patients' complaints. When decisions involved discussing impending death, decision-making conversations were initiated either indirectly, by prompting the patients to express their understanding of the disease and its progression, or directly, by providing a justification for broaching a difficult topic. Decision-making conversations and

  3. [Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

    2017-08-15

    Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    OpenAIRE

    Khadam, I.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost–benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost–benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis thro...

  5. A critical analysis of the literature and theoretical perspectives on theory-practice gap amongst newly qualified nurses within the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Thomas

    2015-08-01

    This critical analysis of the literature examines the factors and theoretical perspectives contributing to the theory-practice gap for newly qualified nurses within the United Kingdom. This article aspires to inform, guide and promote effective nursing education both academically and practically. A systematic search strategy was conducted to identify relevant literature covering the period of 2000-2014, to include only contemporary theoretical perspectives coinciding with the dearth of contemporary literature post Project 2000. The literature was systematically investigated utilising nursing research databases, the Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Allied and Complementary Medicine, the U.S. National Library of Medicine and Internurse. To satisfy the search criteria only articles conducted within the United Kingdom and written in the English language were included. Only literature including nurses and newly qualified nurses were included. To identify relevant literature a series of key words were utilised. Systematic review of the literature revealed that newly qualified nurses feel unprepared for practice, lacking confidence in their own abilities. It was also felt by newly qualified nurses that not enough time was dedicated to the production of clinical skills during their training. The use of preceptorship programmes was found to reduce the transitional stress associated with becoming a qualified nursing practitioner. Despite the increasing research being undertaken in the area of theory-practice gap there is still a need for nursing educators, practice areas and regulatory bodies to invest further in research. The effects of preceptorship and simulation exercises in particular require more research to provide regulatory bodies with enough evidence to make an informed decision as to whether their use should be mandatory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. New mini dental implant attachments versus O-ring attachment after cyclic aging: Analysis of retention strength and gap space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatalla, Abdalbseet A; Song, Ke; Cao, Ying-Guang

    2017-06-01

    Overdenture as a treatment modality for both partially and fully edentulous patients is costeffective and less expensive. The purpose of the present study was to examine the newly fabricated attachments by comparing them with conventional O-ring attachment in vitro in terms of retention force and cyclic aging resistance. A total of 150 samples were prepared and divided into five groups according to the materials used (O-ring attachment, Deflex M10 XR, Deflex Classic SR, Deflex Acrilato FD, and flexible acrylic resin). The retention force of different attachments was measured by a mini dental implant after three subsequent aging (0, 63, and 126) cycles in the circumstances similar to the oral environment. The gap space between the head of the implant and the inner surface of the attachments was detected. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis with multiple comparisons test was applied for statistical analysis. The results showed that Deflex M10 XR had the highest retention force and the lowest gap space after cyclic aging; in addition, by comparing the relative force reduction, the lowest values were obtained in the O-ring attachment and the highest values in the flexible acrylic resin attachment. The retention force measured after cyclic aging for the Deflex M10 XR attachment was greatly improved when compared with the O-ring attachment and other types of attachment materials; in addition, the Deflex M10 XR attachment exhibited the minimum gap space between the inner surface and the mini dental implant head. In conclusion, Deflex M10 XR has the ability to withstand weathering conditions and retains its durable and retentive properties after aging when compared with other attachments.

  7. The Madrid Train Bombings: A Decision-Making Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-11

    4 Since 9/11 virtually all elements of national power have been used to strategically react to terrorism. 2 This study will analyze a terrorist...election.4 While this caused much controversy within Spain, it also makes an analysis using the Organizational Process Model virtually impossible...Cuerpo Nacional de Polic´ıa or CNP and the Guardia Civil), its counterterrorist agency (Spanish security forces--Fuerzas y Cuerpos de Seguridad del

  8. Decision on performing interim analysis for comparative clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pak, Kyongsun; Jacobus, Susanna; Uno, Hajime

    2017-09-01

    In randomized-controlled trials, interim analyses are often planned for possible early trial termination to claim superiority or futility of a new therapy. While unblinding is necessary to conduct the formal interim analysis in blinded studies, blinded data also have information about the potential treatment difference between the groups. We developed a blinded data monitoring tool that enables investigators to predict whether they observe such an unblinded interim analysis results that supports early termination of the trial. Investigators may skip some of the planned interim analyses if an early termination is unlikely. We specifically focused on blinded, randomized-controlled studies to compare binary endpoints of a new treatment with a control. Assuming one interim analysis is planned for early termination for superiority or futility, we conducted extensive simulation studies to assess the impact of the implementation of our tool on the size, power, expected number of interim analyses, and bias in the treatment effect. The numerical study showed the proposed monitoring tool does not affect size or power, but dramatically reduces the expected number of interim analyses when the effect of the treatment difference is small. The tool serves as a useful reference when interpreting the summary of the blinded data throughout the course of the trial, without losing integrity of the study. This tool could potentially save the study resources and budget by avoiding unnecessary interim analyses.

  9. Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

    2018-01-19

    OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

  10. A critical narrative analysis of shared decision-making in acute inpatient mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Gemma; Felton, Anne; Morgan, Alastair; Stickley, Theo; Willis, Martin; Diamond, Bob; Houghton, Philip; Johnson, Beverley; Dumenya, John

    2016-01-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a high priority in healthcare policy and is complementary to the recovery philosophy in mental health care. This agenda has been operationalised within the Values-Based Practice (VBP) framework, which offers a theoretical and practical model to promote democratic interprofessional approaches to decision-making. However, these are limited by a lack of recognition of the implications of power implicit within the mental health system. This study considers issues of power within the context of decision-making and examines to what extent decisions about patients' care on acute in-patient wards are perceived to be shared. Focus groups were conducted with 46 mental health professionals, service users, and carers. The data were analysed using the framework of critical narrative analysis (CNA). The findings of the study suggested each group constructed different identity positions, which placed them as inside or outside of the decision-making process. This reflected their view of themselves as best placed to influence a decision on behalf of the service user. In conclusion, the discourse of VBP and SDM needs to take account of how differentials of power and the positioning of speakers affect the context in which decisions take place.

  11. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

  12. Is the gap more than gender? A longitudinal analysis of gender, gender role orientation, and earnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judge, Timothy A; Livingston, Beth A

    2008-09-01

    This study investigated the relationships among gender, gender role orientation (i.e., attitudes toward the gendered separation of roles at work and at home), and earnings. A multilevel model was conceptualized in which gender role orientation and earnings were within-individual variables that fluctuate over time (although predictors of between-individual differences in gender role orientation were also considered). Results indicated that whereas traditional gender role orientation was positively related to earnings, gender significantly predicted the slope of this relationship: Traditional gender role orientation was strongly positively associated with earnings for men; it was slightly negatively associated with earnings for women. Occupational segregation partly explained these gender differences. Overall, the results suggest that although gender role attitudes are becoming less traditional for men and for women, traditional gender role orientation continues to exacerbate the gender wage gap.

  13. Leadership Curricula in Nursing Education: A Critical Literature Review and Gap Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Kelly J

    2015-07-01

    The Institute of Medicine's Future of Nursing report advises nursing education programs to integrate and embed leadership content within all areas of prelicensure nursing curriculum. This critical literature review synthesizes the state of the science of leadership curricula in prelicensure baccalaureate nursing education programs from 2008 to 2013. Gaps are identified and discussed. The Academic Search Premier and Health Source databases were searched, using the keywords baccalaureate nursing education and leadership. The CINAHL database was searched, using the keywords leadership, education, nursing, and baccalaureate. The 13 peer-reviewed articles identified for inclusion comprised descriptive articles (n = 8), mixed-methods studies (n = 2), quantitative studies (n = 2), and a qualitative study (n = 1). The underlying theme identified is the study and use of active learning strategies. Subthemes within this context were the use of reflection, peer learning, interdisciplinary teams, organizational partnerships, and curricular reform. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  14. Research gaps in the care of women with female genital mutilation: an analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulcadir, J; Rodriguez, M I; Say, L

    2015-02-01

    Female genital mutilation (FGM) includes procedures involving the partial or total removal of the external female genitals for non-therapeutic reasons. They can have negative psychosexual and health consequences that need specific care. In this paper, we review some key knowledge gaps in the clinical care of women with FGM, focusing on obstetric outcomes, surgical interventions (defibulation and clitoral reconstruction), and the skills and training of healthcare professionals involved in the prevention and management of FGM. We identify research priorities to improve the evidence necessary to establish guidelines for the best multidisciplinary care, communication, and prevention, and to improve health-promotion measures for women with FGM. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  15. Design, Analysis and Simulation of Magnetic Biased Inductors with Saturation-Gap

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aguilar, Andres Revilla; Munk-Nielsen, Stig

    2014-01-01

    Permanent magnet biasing, is a known technique for increasing the energy storage capability of inductors operating in DC applications. The opposing flux introduced by a permanent magnet will extend the saturation flux limit of a given magnetic material. When full biasing of the core is achieved......, the effective saturation current limit of a given inductor is doubled. This results in a smaller requirement in number of turns and area cross-section, allowing for smaller and/or more efficient inductors. By adding some switching elements, the benefits of biased inductors can also be used in AC applications....... This paper presents a review of the scientific literature on biased hybrid inductors and the evolution of the used magnets and cores configurations. A recently developed biasing configuration, the saturation-gap, will also be analyzed and the design parameter will be identified using finite element software...

  16. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  17. Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

    2016-01-01

    Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

  18. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  19. Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

    2017-08-16

    The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

  20. Landslide susceptibility mapping of a landside-prone area from Turkey by decision tree analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorum, Tolga; Celal Tunusluoglu, M.; Sezer, Ebru; Nefeslioglu, Hakan A.; Bozkir, A. Selman; Gokceoglu, Candan

    2010-05-01

    The landslides are accepted as one of the important natural hazards throughout the world. Besides, the regional landslide susceptibility assessments is one of the first stages of the landslide hazard mitigation efforts. For this purpose, various methods have been applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for many years. However, application of decision tree to landslide susceptibility mapping, one of data mining methods, is not common. Considering this lack in the landslide literature,an application of decision tree method to landslide susceptibility mapping is the main purpose of the present study. As the study area, the Inegol region (Northwestern Turkey) is selected. In the first stage of the study, a landslide inventory is produced by aerial-photo interpretations and field studies. Employing 16 topographic and lithologic variables, the landslide susceptibility analyses are performed by decision tree method. The AUC (Area Under Curve) values for ROC (Receiver-Operating Characteristics) curves are calculated as 0.942 for the landslide susceptibility model obtained from the decision tree analysis. According to the AUC values, the decision tree analysis presents a considerable performance. As a result of the present study, it may be concluded that the decision tree method presents promising results for the regional landslide susceptibility assessment. However, the technique should be studied for different landslide-prone areas and compared with other prediction techniques such as logistic regression, artificial neural networks, fuzzy approaches, etc.

  1. Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

    2016-01-01

    The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

  2. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making among Black Mothers with HIV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ndidiamaka N. Amutah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1 family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2 negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3 birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  3. Shaping the Conversation: A Secondary Analysis of Reproductive Decision-Making Among Black Mothers with HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amutah, Ndidiamaka N; Gifuni, Jacqueline; Wesley, Yvonne

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative secondary data analysis is to examine the major influencers on mothers with HIV in their childbearing decisions, as well as how those influencers shape conversations with clinicians and health-care providers regarding HIV treatment and prevention. The original study gained insight into the reproductive decision-making of mothers with HIV. By analyzing a subsample of 15 interviews from an original cohort of 25 participants in the earlier study, three major themes were identified as follows: (1) family members, not health-care providers, influence reproductive decisions; (2) negative attitudes toward subsequent pregnancies are mainly due to HIV transmission; and (3) birth control decisions were predominately supported by family members, while health-care providers were not consulted.

  4. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  5. Seismic analysis of equipment system with non-linearities such as gap and friction using equivalent linearization method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakami, H.; Hirai, T.; Nakata, M.; Kobori, T.; Mizukoshi, K.; Takenaka, Y.; Miyagawa, N.

    1989-01-01

    Many of the equipment systems of nuclear power plants contain a number of non-linearities, such as gap and friction, due to their mechanical functions. It is desirable to take such non-linearities into account appropriately for the evaluation of the aseismic soundness. However, in usual design works, linear analysis method with rough assumptions is applied from engineering point of view. An equivalent linearization method is considered to be one of the effective analytical techniques to evaluate non-linear responses, provided that errors to a certain extent are tolerated, because it has greater simplicity in analysis and economization in computing time than non-linear analysis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the applicability of the equivalent linearization method to evaluate the maximum earthquake response of equipment systems such as the CANDU Fuelling Machine which has multiple non- linearities

  6. Effect of interfragmentary gap on the mechanical behavior of mandibular angle fracture with three fixation designs: A finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Russell; Liu, Yunfeng; Wang, Joanne Helen; Baur, Dale Allen

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to simulate stress and strain distribution numerically on a normal mandible under physiological occlusal loadings. The results were compared with those of mandibles that had an angle fracture stabilized with different fixation designs under the same loadings. The amount of displacement at two interfragmentary gaps was also studied. A three-dimensional (3D) virtual mandible was reconstructed with an angle fracture that had a fracture gap of either 0.1 or 1 mm. Three types of plate fixation designs were used: Type I, a miniplate was placed across the fracture line following the Champy technique; Type II, two miniplates were used; and Type III, a reconstruction plate was used on the inferior border of the mandible. Loads of 100 and 500 N were applied to the models. The maximum von Mises stress, strain, and displacement were computed using finite element analysis. The results from the control and experimental groups were analyzed and compared. The results demonstrated that high stresses and strains were distributed to the condylar and angular areas regardless of the loading position. The ratio of the plate/bone average stress ranged from 215% (Type II design) to 848% (Type I design) irrespective of the interfragmentary gap size. With a 1-mm fracture gap, the ratio of the plate/bone stress ranged from 204% (Type II design) to 1130% (Type I design). All strains were well below critical bone strain thresholds. Displacement on the cross-sectional mapping at fracture interface indicated that uneven movement occurred in x, y, and z directions. Interfragmentary gaps between 0.1 and 1 mm did not have a substantial effect on the average stress distribution to the fractured bony segments; however, they had a greater effect on the stress distribution to the plates and screws. Type II fixation was the best mechanical design under bite loads. Type I design was the least stable system and had the highest stress distribution and the largest displacement

  7. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance.Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision.This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  8. Quantitative physicochemical analysis of acid-base balance and clinical utility of anion gap and strong ion gap in 806 neonatal calves with diarrhea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trefz, F M; Constable, P D; Lorenz, I

    2015-01-01

    Acid-base abnormalities in neonatal diarrheic calves can be assessed by using the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation or the simplified strong ion approach which use the anion gap (AG) or the strong ion gap (SIG) to quantify the concentration of unmeasured strong anions such as D-lactate. To determine and compare the clinical utility of AG and SIG in quantifying the unmeasured strong anion charge in neonatal diarrheic calves, and to examine the associations between biochemical findings and acid-base variables by using the simplified strong ion approach. We hypothesized that the SIG provides a more accurate prediction of unmeasured strong anions than the AG. Eight hundred and six neonatal diarrheic calves admitted to a veterinary teaching hospital. Retrospective study utilizing clinicopathologic findings extracted from medical records. Hyperphosphatemia was an important predictor of venous blood pH. Serum inorganic phosphorus and plasma D-lactate concentrations accounted for 58% of the variation in venous blood pH and 77% of the variation in AG and SIG. Plasma D- and total lactate concentrations were slightly better correlated with SIG (rs = -0.69; -0.78) than to AG (rs = 0.63; 0.74). Strong ion gap is slightly better at quantifying the unmeasured strong anion concentration in neonatal diarrheic calves than AG. Phosphorus concentrations should be included as part of the calculation of Atot when applying the simplified strong ion approach to acid-base balance to critically ill animals with hyperphosphatemia. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  9. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    , and their implementation may also have significant impact on people other than the patient. These are essential considerations for health policy. The ethics model is structured around key ethical questions rather than philosophical theories, to be applicable to different cultures and usable by non-philosophers...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... that is easy and flexible to use in different organizational settings and cultures. The model is part of the EUnetHTA project, which focuses on the transferability of HTAs between countries. The EUnetHTA ethics model is based on the insight that the whole HTA process is value laden. It is not sufficient...

  10. A multimethod analysis of shared decision-making in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings including family caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Karla T; Oliver, Debra Parker; Gage, L Ashley; Albright, David L; Demiris, George

    2016-03-01

    Much of the existing research on shared decision-making in hospice and palliative care focuses on the provider-patient dyad; little is known about shared decision-making that is inclusive of family members of patients with advanced disease. We sought to describe shared decision-making as it occurred in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers as participants using video-conferencing technology. We conducted a multimethod study in which we used content and thematic analysis techniques to analyze video-recordings of hospice interdisciplinary team meetings (n = 100), individual interviews of family caregivers (n = 73) and hospice staff members (n = 78), and research field notes. Participants in the original studies from which data for this analysis were drawn were hospice family caregivers and staff members employed by one of five different community-based hospice agencies located in the Midwestern United States. Shared decision-making occurred infrequently in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers. Barriers to shared decision-making included time constraints, communication skill deficits, unaddressed emotional needs, staff absences, and unclear role expectations. The hospice philosophy of care, current trends in healthcare delivery, the interdisciplinary nature of hospice teams, and the designation of a team leader/facilitator supported shared decision-making. The involvement of family caregivers in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings using video-conferencing technology creates a useful platform for shared decision-making; however, steps must be taken to transform family caregivers from meeting attendees to shared decision-makers. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. "Quality of prenatal and maternal care: bridging the know-do gap" (QUALMAT study): an electronic clinical decision support system for rural Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Antje; Prytherch, Helen; Kaltschmidt, Jens; Krings, Andreas; Sukums, Felix; Mensah, Nathan; Zakane, Alphonse; Loukanova, Svetla; Gustafsson, Lars L; Sauerborn, Rainer; Haefeli, Walter E

    2013-04-10

    Despite strong efforts to improve maternal care, its quality remains deficient in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa as persistently high maternal mortality rates testify. The QUALMAT study seeks to improve the performance and motivation of rural health workers and ultimately quality of primary maternal health care services in three African countries Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Tanzania. One major intervention is the introduction of a computerized Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for rural primary health care centers to be used by health care workers of different educational levels. A stand-alone, java-based software, able to run on any standard hardware, was developed based on assessment of the health care situation in the involved countries. The software scope was defined and the final software was programmed under consideration of test experiences. Knowledge for the decision support derived from the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline "Pregnancy, Childbirth, Postpartum and Newborn Care; A Guide for Essential Practice". The QUALMAT CDSS provides computerized guidance and clinical decision support for antenatal care, and care during delivery and up to 24 hours post delivery. The decision support is based on WHO guidelines and designed using three principles: (1) Guidance through routine actions in maternal and perinatal care, (2) integration of clinical data to detect situations of concern by algorithms, and (3) electronic tracking of peri- and postnatal activities. In addition, the tool facilitates patient management and is a source of training material. The implementation of the software, which is embedded in a set of interventions comprising the QUALMAT study, is subject to various research projects assessing and quantifying the impact of the CDSS on quality of care, the motivation of health care staff (users) and its health economic aspects. The software will also be assessed for its usability and acceptance, as well as for its influence on

  12. Shared Decision Making Among Clinicians and Asian American and Pacific Islander Sexual and Gender Minorities: An Intersectional Approach to Address a Critical Care Gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Judy Y; Xu, Lucy J; Lopez, Fanny Y; Jia, Justin L; Pho, Mai T; Kim, Karen E; Chin, Marshall H

    2016-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) is a model of patient-provider communication. Little is known about the role of SDM in health disparities among Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) sexual and gender minorities (SGM). We illustrate how issues at the intersection of AAPI and SGM identities affect SDM processes and health outcomes. We discuss experiences of AAPI SGM that are affected by AAPI heterogeneity, SGM stigma, multiple minority group identities, and sources of discrimination. Recommendations for clinical practice, research, policy, community development, and education are offered.

  13. Design Mode Analysis of Pareto Solution Set for Decision-Making Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Hiwa

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in engineering design problems is challenging because they have multiple and conflicting criteria and complex correlation between design parameters. This study proposes a decision-making support methodology named design mode analysis, which consists of data clustering and principal component analysis (PCA. A design mode is indicated by the eigenvector obtained by PCA and reveals the dominant design parameters in a given dataset. The proposed method is a general framework to obtain the design modes from high-dimensional and large datasets. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified on the conceptual design problem of the hybrid rocket engine.

  14. Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Tang Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

  15. An Integrated Approach with Group Decision-Making for Strategy Selection in SWOT Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    İhsan Yüksel

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to improve the analytical dimension of SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis with group decision-making, which underlines the analysis of internal and external environments that in turn, will improve the definition of corporate strategy within the strategic planning process. The main issue of the study was how to select the most appropriate strategy by taking into consideration different effects of each factor of SWOT analysis on strat...

  16. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  17. Quantification of a decision-making failure probability of the accident management using cognitive analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Ohtani, Masanori; Fujita, Yushi

    2002-01-01

    In the nuclear power plant, much knowledge is acquired through probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a severe accident, and accident management (AM) is prepared. It is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of AM using the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization, operation failure probability of operators, success criteria of AM and reliability of AM equipments in PSA. However, there has been no suitable qualification method for PSA so far to obtain the decision-making failure probability, because the decision-making failure of an emergency organization treats the knowledge based error. In this work, we developed a new method for quantification of the decision-making failure probability of an emergency organization using cognitive analysis model, which decided an AM strategy, in a nuclear power plant at the severe accident, and tried to apply it to a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) plant. As a result: (1) It could quantify the decision-making failure probability adjusted to PSA for general analysts, who do not necessarily possess professional human factors knowledge, by choosing the suitable value of a basic failure probability and an error-factor. (2) The decision-making failure probabilities of six AMs were in the range of 0.23 to 0.41 using the screening evaluation method and in the range of 0.10 to 0.19 using the detailed evaluation method as the result of trial evaluation based on severe accident analysis of a typical PWR plant, and a result of sensitivity analysis of the conservative assumption, failure probability decreased about 50%. (3) The failure probability using the screening evaluation method exceeded that using detailed evaluation method by 99% of probability theoretically, and the failure probability of AM in this study exceeded 100%. From this result, it was shown that the decision-making failure probability was more conservative than the detailed evaluation method, and the screening evaluation method satisfied

  18. Quantitative ultrasound texture analysis for clinical decision making support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie Ying; Beland, Michael; Konrad, Joseph; Tuomi, Adam; Glidden, David; Grand, David; Merck, Derek

    2015-03-01

    We propose a general ultrasound (US) texture-analysis and machine-learning framework for detecting the presence of disease that is suitable for clinical application across clinicians, disease types, devices, and operators. Its stages are image selection, image filtering, ROI selection, feature parameterization, and classification. Each stage is modular and can be replaced with alternate methods. Thus, this framework is adaptable to a wide range of tasks. Our two preliminary clinical targets are hepatic steatosis and adenomyosis diagnosis. For steatosis, we collected US images from 288 patients and their pathology-determined values of steatosis (%) from biopsies. Two radiologists independently reviewed all images and identified the region of interest (ROI) most representative of the hepatic echotexture for each patient. To parameterize the images into comparable quantities, we filter the US images at multiple scales for various texture responses. For each response, we collect a histogram of pixel features within the ROI, and parameterize it as a Gaussian function using its mean, standard deviation, kurtosis, and skew to create a 36-feature vector. Our algorithm uses a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Using a threshold of 10%, we achieved 72.81% overall accuracy, 76.18% sensitivity, and 65.96% specificity in identifying steatosis with leave-ten-out cross-validation (p<0.0001). Extending this framework to adenomyosis, we identified 38 patients with MR-confirmed findings of adenomyosis and previous US studies and 50 controls. A single rater picked the best US-image and ROI for each case. Using the same processing pipeline, we obtained 76.14% accuracy, 86.00% sensitivity, and 63.16% specificity with leave-one-out cross-validation (p<0.0001).

  19. Decision and decision makers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  20. Inductive Decision Tree Analysis of the Validity Rank of Construction Parameters of Innovative Gear Pump after Tooth Root Undercutting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deptuła A.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an innovative use of inductive algorithm for generating the decision tree for an analysis of the rank validity parameters of construction and maintenance of the gear pump with undercut tooth. It is preventet an alternative way of generating sets of decisions and determining the hierarchy of decision variables to existing the methods of discrete optimization.

  1. Inductive Decision Tree Analysis of the Validity Rank of Construction Parameters of Innovative Gear Pump after Tooth Root Undercutting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deptuła, A.; Partyka, M. A.

    2017-02-01

    The article presents an innovative use of inductive algorithm for generating the decision tree for an analysis of the rank validity parameters of construction and maintenance of the gear pump with undercut tooth. It is preventet an alternative way of generating sets of decisions and determining the hierarchy of decision variables to existing the methods of discrete optimization.

  2. The skills gap in nursing management in South Africa: a sectoral analysis: a research paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillay, Rubin

    2010-03-01

    To identify competencies important for effective nursing management and to assess managers' proficiency therein. A lack of management capacity has been identified as the key stumbling block to health delivery in South Africa. Despite nursing managers being central to overcoming the challenges facing health care, there has been a paucity of research that empirically evaluates their skill levels. A survey was conducted among 171 senior nursing managers in South Africa using a self-administered questionnaire. Public sector managers assessed themselves as being relatively less competent than private sector managers. The largest skill gaps for public sector managers were for 'ethico-legal', 'task-related' and 'controlling' skills whereas those for private sector managers were for 'ethico-legal', 'health-related ' and 'task-related' skills. This research confirmed the lack of management capacity within the health sector and identified areas in which the skills deficit was most significant for both the public and private sectors. These findings reflect the needs of nursing managers and will be useful in the conceptualization, design and delivery of health management programmes aimed at enhancing management and leadership capacity in the health sector in South Africa.

  3. Measuring Quality Gaps in TB Screening in South Africa Using Standardised Patient Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, Carmen S; Gerdtham, Ulf-G; Hompashe, Dumisani; Smith, Anja; Burger, Ronelle

    2018-04-12

    This is the first multi-district Standardised Patient (SP) study in South Africa. It measures the quality of TB screening at primary healthcare (PHC) facilities. We hypothesise that TB screening protocols and best practices are poorly adhered to at the PHC level. The SP method allows researchers to observe how healthcare providers identify, test and advise presumptive TB patients, and whether this aligns with clinical protocols and best practice. The study was conducted at PHC facilities in two provinces and 143 interactions at 39 facilities were analysed. Only 43% of interactions resulted in SPs receiving a TB sputum test and being offered an HIV test. TB sputum tests were conducted routinely (84%) while HIV tests were offered less frequently (47%). Nurses frequently neglected to ask SPs whether their household contacts had confirmed TB (54%). Antibiotics were prescribed without taking temperatures in 8% of cases. The importance of returning to the facility to receive TB test results was only explained in 28%. The SP method has highlighted gaps in clinical practice, signalling missed opportunities. Early detection of sub-optimal TB care is instrumental in decreasing TB-related morbidity and mortality. The findings provide the rationale for further quality improvement work in TB management.

  4. Research vs. Practice on Manufacturing Firms’ Servitization Strategies: A Gap Analysis and Research Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Perona

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Servitization in the manufacturing industry implies a shift from an offer based mainly on standard goods, to a wider value proposition composed of solutions aimed at solving specific customers’ problems, obtained by integrating tangible and intangible elements. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the servitization strategies of manufacturing firms, more specifically about: (i how manufacturing companies move toward servitization (servitization pattern; (ii how they achieve the capabilities needed; and (iii which factors enable this transition. We did so by comparing the state of the art of academic research with a qualified sample of case studies of global companies that famously improved their competitiveness by shifting from products to solutions. The results show some gaps between research and practice, concerning in particular: the impact (either transformational or integrative of servitization on the manufacturing organization; the role of financial resources in shaping the capability achievement strategy, particularly for external acquisitions, and; the role of servitization enablers poorly considered by the extant literature, such as time, leadership and continuity, operational excellence and digital technologies. These findings lead to the definition of seven formalized research directions, thus outlining an agenda for future research.

  5. FEM Analysis of a New Electromechanical Converter with Rolling Rotor and Axial Air-Gap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    UNGUREANU, C.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the modeling of a new type of electromechanical converter with rolling rotor (ECRR in order to obtain an optimisation at functional level. The ECRR prototype comprises a stator composed of twelve magnetic poles and a disk-shaped rolling rotor made of ferromagnetic material, without windings. Each magnetic pole is made of an E-shaped magnetic system and a winding placed on its central column. The electromechanical converter with rolling rotor is analyzed through a magnetic field study with Flux2D software in magnetostatic application. The field study examines the influence of the rotor thickness, axial air-gap size and current density on the magnetic attraction force that changes the position of the disk-shaped rolling rotor. Also, it is analyzed the variation of the magnetic attraction force for different inclination angles of the rolling rotor. The main advantage of the ECRR is represented by a low rotational speed without using mechanical gearboxes. The ECRR prototype can be used in photovoltaic panels tracking systems.

  6. Exploring forest infrastructures equipment through multivariate analysis: complementarities, gaps and overlaps in the Mediterranean basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Bajocco

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The countries of the Mediterranean basin face several challenges regarding the sustainability of forest ecosystems and the delivery of crucial goods and services that they provide in a context of rapid global changes. Advancing scientific knowledge and foresting innovation is essential to ensure the sustainable management of Mediterranean forests and maximize the potential role of their unique goods and services in building a knowledge-based bioeconomy in the region. In this context, the European project FORESTERRA ("Enhancing FOrest RESearch in the MediTERRAnean through improved coordination and integration” aims at reinforcing the scientific cooperation on Mediterranean forests through an ambitious transnational framework in order to reduce the existing research fragmentation and maximize the effectiveness of forest research activities. Within the FORESTERRA project framework, this work analyzed the infrastructures equipment of the Mediterranean countries belonging to the project Consortium. According to the European Commission, research infrastructures are facilities, resources and services that are used by the scientific communities to conduct research and foster innovation. To the best of our knowledge, the equipment and availability of infrastructures, in terms of experimental sites, research facilities and databases, have only rarely been explored. The aim of this paper was hence to identify complementarities, gaps and overlaps among the different forest research institutes in order to create a scientific network, optimize the resources and trigger collaborations.

  7. Measurement and analysis of radiated sound from a low speed fan with a large tip gap.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilka, M J; Anthoine, J; Schram, C

    2014-05-01

    The wake flow field and radiated sound from a low speed axial fan is studied experimentally. The fan geometry uses controlled diffusion blades and is designed with a low aspect ratio (0.9). The fan is installed with a large tip gap, approximately 10% of the blade span. The radiated sound field is analyzed using a known trailing edge noise formulation. First, the model is compared to an experiment of a single airfoil in a wind tunnel to assess the predictive capabilities. Second, measurements of the fan are made at two different blade loading conditions. Hot wire measurements are made in the near wake of the fan to assess the extent of the tip leakage flow for each condition. The radiated sound fields are compared with the trailing edge noise theory. Use is made of the wake measurements as an input to a surface pressure model. When the fan is operated with the optimal blade loading, the influence of the tip leakage flow is found to be of secondary acoustic impact. When the fan is operated at a high loading condition for the blades, a more significant leakage flow develops and is found to be responsible for the dominant radiated sound.

  8. Winning at litigation through decision analysis creating and executing winning strategies in any litigation or dispute

    CERN Document Server

    Celona, John

    2016-01-01

    This book is the first in-depth guide to applying the philosophy, theory, and methods of decision analysis to creating and executing winning legal strategies. With explanations that progress from introductory to advanced and practice problems at the end of each chapter, this is a book the reader will want to use and refer to for years to come. Practicing decision analysts, operations research and management science students, attorneys and law students will find this book an invaluable addition to their knowledge and skills. John Celona has over three decades of experience in teaching and applying decision analysis. John lectures in the School of Engineering at Stanford University and is on faculty at The Stanford Center for Professional Development, the American Course on Drug Development and Regulatory Sciences, and the Academy of the American Society for Healthcare Risk Management.

  9. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  10. Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Ran

    2002-03-01

    A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

  11. Modified Delphi survey for decision analysis for prophylaxis of post-radiation osteonecrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Carl K; Epstein, Joel B; Sheps, Samuel B; Schechter, Martin T; Busser, James R

    2002-09-01

    to augment epidemiological data from the literature, assist Bayesian perspectives and a decision analytic framework for the minimization of post-radiation osteonecrosis (PRON; osteoradionecrosis) and its impacts in irradiated head and neck cancer patients. a modified Delphi process survey of 15 international clinical experts was used to identify and assess outcome data and factors related to PRON risk, extraction, and factor suitability for formal decision analysis. Clinimetric pain and function outcome scales were created and assessed for relevance to quality of life. expert opinion qualitative assessments were generally adequate and consistent between open- and close-ended items, but many quantitative (e.g. PRON risk rate) estimates were not. A research agenda advocated to validate the epidemiological database for minimization of PRON and decision analysis includes: adoption of a uniform definition of PRON, and ICD code for non-experimental databases; more detailed, consistent data reporting in articles; and quality of life studies.

  12. Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

  13. Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

    2007-01-01

    Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

  14. Subsurface activities and decision support systems : An analysis of the requirements for a social acceptance-motivated decision support system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Os, Herman W.A.; Herber, Rien; Scholtens, Bert

    In this paper, we present a novel perspective on evaluating subsurface activities by increasing the role of social acceptance in the decision-making process. We use the triangle of social acceptance to structure and analyze the decision-making problem in three classes: social-political, market and

  15. Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renqiang Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global biodiversity priorities are primarily addressed through the establishment or expansion of conservation areas (CAs. Spatial prioritization of these CAs can help minimize biodiversity loss by accounting for the uneven distribution of biodiversity and conservation considerations (e.g., accessibility, cost, and biodiversity threats. Furthermore, optimized spatial priorities can help facilitate the judicious use of limited conservation resources by identifying cost effective CA designs. Here, we demonstrate how key species and ecosystems can be incorporated into systematic conservation planning to propose the expansion and addition of new CAs in the biodiversity-unique and data-poor region of Qinghai Plateau, China. We combined species distribution models with a systematic conservation planning tool, MARXAN to identify CAs for biodiversity on Qinghai Plateau. A set of 57 optimal CAs (273,872 km2, 39.3 % of this Province were required to achieve the defined conservation targets in Qinghai Province. We also identified 29 new CAs (139,216 km2, 20% of Qinghai Province outside the existing nature reserve (NRs that are necessary to fully achieve the proposed conservation targets. The conservation importance of these 29 new CAs was also indicated, with 10 labeled as high priority, 11 as medium priority, and 8 as low priority. High priority areas were more abundant in the eastern and southeastern parts of this region. Our results suggest that many species remain inadequately protected within the Qinghai Plateau, with conservation gaps in eastern and northwestern regions. The proposed more representative and effective CAs can provide useful information for adjusting the existing NRs and developing the first National Park in China.

  16. A meta-analysis of seaweed impacts on seagrasses: generalities and knowledge gaps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mads S Thomsen

    Full Text Available Seagrasses are important habitat-formers and ecosystem engineers that are under threat from bloom-forming seaweeds. These seaweeds have been suggested to outcompete the seagrasses, particularly when facilitated by eutrophication, causing regime shifts where green meadows and clear waters are replaced with unstable sediments, turbid waters, hypoxia, and poor habitat conditions for fishes and invertebrates. Understanding the situations under which seaweeds impact seagrasses on local patch scales can help proactive management and prevent losses at greater scales. Here, we provide a quantitative review of available published manipulative experiments (all conducted at the patch-scale, to test which attributes of seaweeds and seagrasses (e.g., their abundances, sizes, morphology, taxonomy, attachment type, or origin influence impacts. Weighted and unweighted meta-analyses (Hedges d metric of 59 experiments showed generally high variability in attribute-impact relationships. Our main significant findings were that (a abundant seaweeds had stronger negative impacts on seagrasses than sparse seaweeds, (b unattached and epiphytic seaweeds had stronger impacts than 'rooted' seaweeds, and (c small seagrass species were more susceptible than larger species. Findings (a and (c were rather intuitive. It was more surprising that 'rooted' seaweeds had comparatively small impacts, particularly given that this category included the infamous invasive Caulerpa species. This result may reflect that seaweed biomass and/or shading and metabolic by-products like anoxia and sulphides could be lower for rooted seaweeds. In conclusion, our results represent simple and robust first-order generalities about seaweed impacts on seagrasses. This review also documented a limited number of primary studies. We therefore identified major knowledge gaps that need to be addressed before general predictive models on seaweed-seagrass interactions can be build, in order to effectively

  17. Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health

  18. A meta-analysis of seaweed impacts on seagrasses: generalities and knowledge gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Mads S; Wernberg, Thomas; Engelen, Aschwin H; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mat A; Holmer, Marianne; McGlathery, Karen J; Arenas, Francisco; Kotta, Jonne; Silliman, Brian R

    2012-01-01

    Seagrasses are important habitat-formers and ecosystem engineers that are under threat from bloom-forming seaweeds. These seaweeds have been suggested to outcompete the seagrasses, particularly when facilitated by eutrophication, causing regime shifts where green meadows and clear waters are replaced with unstable sediments, turbid waters, hypoxia, and poor habitat conditions for fishes and invertebrates. Understanding the situations under which seaweeds impact seagrasses on local patch scales can help proactive management and prevent losses at greater scales. Here, we provide a quantitative review of available published manipulative experiments (all conducted at the patch-scale), to test which attributes of seaweeds and seagrasses (e.g., their abundances, sizes, morphology, taxonomy, attachment type, or origin) influence impacts. Weighted and unweighted meta-analyses (Hedges d metric) of 59 experiments showed generally high variability in attribute-impact relationships. Our main significant findings were that (a) abundant seaweeds had stronger negative impacts on seagrasses than sparse seaweeds, (b) unattached and epiphytic seaweeds had stronger impacts than 'rooted' seaweeds, and (c) small seagrass species were more susceptible than larger species. Findings (a) and (c) were rather intuitive. It was more surprising that 'rooted' seaweeds had comparatively small impacts, particularly given that this category included the infamous invasive Caulerpa species. This result may reflect that seaweed biomass and/or shading and metabolic by-products like anoxia and sulphides could be lower for rooted seaweeds. In conclusion, our results represent simple and robust first-order generalities about seaweed impacts on seagrasses. This review also documented a limited number of primary studies. We therefore identified major knowledge gaps that need to be addressed before general predictive models on seaweed-seagrass interactions can be build, in order to effectively protect

  19. A Meta-Analysis of Seaweed Impacts on Seagrasses: Generalities and Knowledge Gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsen, Mads S.; Wernberg, Thomas; Engelen, Aschwin H.; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mat A.; Holmer, Marianne; McGlathery, Karen J.; Arenas, Francisco; Kotta, Jonne; Silliman, Brian R.

    2012-01-01

    Seagrasses are important habitat-formers and ecosystem engineers that are under threat from bloom-forming seaweeds. These seaweeds have been suggested to outcompete the seagrasses, particularly when facilitated by eutrophication, causing regime shifts where green meadows and clear waters are replaced with unstable sediments, turbid waters, hypoxia, and poor habitat conditions for fishes and invertebrates. Understanding the situations under which seaweeds impact seagrasses on local patch scales can help proactive management and prevent losses at greater scales. Here, we provide a quantitative review of available published manipulative experiments (all conducted at the patch-scale), to test which attributes of seaweeds and seagrasses (e.g., their abundances, sizes, morphology, taxonomy, attachment type, or origin) influence impacts. Weighted and unweighted meta-analyses (Hedges d metric) of 59 experiments showed generally high variability in attribute-impact relationships. Our main significant findings were that (a) abundant seaweeds had stronger negative impacts on seagrasses than sparse seaweeds, (b) unattached and epiphytic seaweeds had stronger impacts than ‘rooted’ seaweeds, and (c) small seagrass species were more susceptible than larger species. Findings (a) and (c) were rather intuitive. It was more surprising that ‘rooted’ seaweeds had comparatively small impacts, particularly given that this category included the infamous invasive Caulerpa species. This result may reflect that seaweed biomass and/or shading and metabolic by-products like anoxia and sulphides could be lower for rooted seaweeds. In conclusion, our results represent simple and robust first-order generalities about seaweed impacts on seagrasses. This review also documented a limited number of primary studies. We therefore identified major knowledge gaps that need to be addressed before general predictive models on seaweed-seagrass interactions can be build, in order to effectively

  20. Analysis of dosimetric leaf gap variation on dose rate variation for dynamic IMRT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Myung Sic; Park, Ju Kyeong; Lee, Seung Hun; Kim, Yang Su; Lee, Sun Young; Cha, Seok Yong [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Chonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    To evaluate the position accuracy of the MLC. This study analyzed the variations of the dosimetric leaf gap(DLG) and MLC transmission factor to reflect the location of the MLC leaves according to the dose rate variation for dynamic IMRT. We used the 6 MV and 10 MV X-ray beams from linear accelerator with a Millennium 120 MLC system. We measured the variation of DLG and MLC transmission factor at depth of 10 cm for the water phantom by varying the dose rate to 200, 300, 400, 500 and 600 MU/min using the CC13 and FC-65G chambers. For 6 MV X-ray beam, a result of measuring based on a dose rate 400 MU/min by varying the dose rate to 200, 300, 400, 500 and 600 MU/min of the difference rate was respectively -2.59, -1.89, 0.00, -0.58, -2.89%. For 10 MV X-ray beam, the difference rate was respectively 2.52, -1.69, 0.00, +1.28, -1.98%. The difference rate of MLC transmission factor was in the range of about 1% of the measured values at the two types of energy and all of the dose rates. This study evaluated the variation of DLG and MLC transmission factor for the dose rate variation for dynamic IMRT. The difference of the MLC transmission factor according to the dose rate variation is negligible, but, the difference of the DLG was found to be large. Therefore, when randomly changing the dose rate dynamic IMRT, it may significantly affect the dose delivered to the tumor. Unless you change the dose rate during dynamic IMRT, it is thought that is to be the more accurate radiation therapy.

  1. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, George E.; Koser, John P.; Sato, Gaku

    2004-01-01

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  2. Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Trotta

    Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

  3. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  4. European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

  5. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  6. Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

    2002-01-01

    A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

  7. The adoption of total cost of ownership for sourcing decisions - a structural equations analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Anderson, James C.; Wynstra, Finn

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the adoption of total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis to improve sourcing decisions. TCO can be seen as an application of activity based costing (ABC) that quantifies the costs that are involved in acquiring and using purchased goods or services. TCO supports purchasing

  8. The Influence of Social Norms in Consumer Decision Making: A Meta-Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnyk, V.; Herpen, van E.; Trijp, van J.C.M.

    2010-01-01

    Although social norms can substantially impact consumer decision making, understanding of how the specification of the norm determines its impact is limited. This meta-analysis (200 independent studies, 659 effect sizes) examines how aspects of social norm specification determine the effect of norms

  9. Evaluating Psychiatric Hospital Admission Decisions for Children in Foster Care: An Optimal Classification Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snowden, Jessica A.; Leon, Scott C.; Bryant, Fred B.; Lyons, John S.

    2007-01-01

    This study explored clinical and nonclinical predictors of inpatient hospital admission decisions across a sample of children in foster care over 4 years (N = 13,245). Forty-eight percent of participants were female and the mean age was 13.4 (SD = 3.5 years). Optimal data analysis (Yarnold & Soltysik, 2005) was used to construct a nonlinear…

  10. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  11. A multi-criteria decision analysis of augmentative treatment of upper limps in persons with tetraplegia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Snoek, Govert J.; van Til, Janine Astrid; van Rossum, Wouter; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2005-01-01

    This study supported the evaluation by a rehabilitation team of the performance of two treatment options that improve the arm-hand function in subjects with sixth cervical vertebra (C6) level Motor Group 2 tetraplegia. The analytic hierarchy process, a technique for multicriteria decision analysis,

  12. Physical vapor deposition and analysis of copper indium aluminum diselenide thin films for high band gap solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimbodi, Moses Warotua

    CuInSe2 films and related alloys have been used to fabricate the highest efficiency thin film solar cells. Alloying CuInSe2 with CuAlSe2 provides a way to engineer the band gap of the resulting films from 1 to 2.7 eV, thereby providing a pathway for improving device performance. In this work, thin films of CuIn1-xAlxSe 2 obtained by multi-source PVD were characterized and investigated for their potential use as high band gap solar cells. The band gap of the films was varied by controlling the [Al]/[Al + In] ratio. Deposition of these films with varying [Cu]/[Al + In] ratios and thickness (1--4 mum) was carried out at substrate temperatures from 350--530°C. CuIn1-xAlxSe2 based solar cells have been fabricated using the structure glass/Mo/CuIn1-xAl xSe2/CdS/ZnO/grid. The effect of varying the band gap on device performance will be discussed. The highest efficiency obtained in this work is 11% using a film with Eg ≈ 1.3 eV. For high Al content, x > 0.3, device-performance decreases mainly due to poor FF similar to that observed in CuIn1-xGaxSe2 devices and is attributed to poor minority carrier collection. For CuIn1-xAlxSe2 films with x = 1, data is analyzed and presented with respect to [Cu]/[Al] and Se to total metal flux ratio, RSe/RM. Phase analysis shows that the resulting films contain different phases that depend on these parameters. Several of these films also contain concentrations of oxygen varying from 12 to 60 at. % as the [Cu]/[Al] ratio decreases. For RSe/R M > 10, a new structure we label as CuxAlySe z was observed. The oxygen content in all of the films obtained under RSe/RM > 10 vary between 1--3 at. %. Based on the Cu-Se, Al-Se, Cu-Al binary and the Cu2Se-Al2Se 3 pseudo-binary phase diagrams, a phenomenological film growth model is presented showing that the film growth kinetics are controlled by the delivery of Se.

  13. VBORNET Gap Analysis: Sand Fly Vector Distribution Models Utilised to Identify Areas of Potential Species Distribution in Areas Lacking Records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bulent Alten

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the first of a number of planned data papers presenting modelled vector distributions, the models in this paper were produced during the ECDC funded VBORNET project. This work continues under the VectorNet project now jointly funded by ECDC and EFSA. This data paper contains the sand fly model outputs produced as part of the VBORNET project. Further data papers will be published after sampling seasons when more field data will become available allowing further species to be modelled or validation and updates to existing models. The data package described here includes those sand fly species first modelled in 2013 and 2014 as part of the VBORNET gap analysis work which aimed to identify areas of potential species distribution in areas lacking records. It comprises four species models together with suitability masks based on land class and environmental limits. The species included within this paper are 'Phlebotomus ariasi', 'Phlebotomus papatasi', 'Phlebotomus perniciosus' and 'Phlebotomus tobbi'. The known distributions of these species within the project area (Europe, the Mediterranean Basin, North Africa, and Eurasia are currently incomplete to a greater or lesser degree. The models are designed to fill the gaps with predicted distributions, to provide a assistance in targeting surveys to collect ­distribution data for those areas with no field validated information, and b a first indication of project wide distributions.

  14. VBORNET gap analysis: Mosquito vector distribution models utilised to identify areas of potential species distribution in areas lacking records.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Schaffner

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the second of a number of planned data papers presenting modelled vector distributions produced originally during the ECDC funded VBORNET project. This work continues under the VectorNet project now jointly funded by ECDC and EFSA. Further data papers will be published after sampling seasons when more field data will become available allowing further species to be modelled or validation and updates to existing models.  The data package described here includes those mosquito species first modelled in 2013 & 2014 as part of the VBORNET gap analysis work which aimed to identify areas of potential species distribution in areas lacking records. It comprises three species models together with suitability masks based on land class and environmental limits. The species included as part of this phase are the mosquitoes 'Aedes vexans', 'Anopheles plumbeus' and 'Culex modestus'. The known distributions of these species within the area covered by the project (Europe, the ­Mediterranean Basin, North Africa, and Eurasia are currently incomplete to a greater or lesser degree. The models are designed to fill the gaps with predicted distributions, to provide a assistance in ­targeting surveys to collect distribution data for those areas with no field validated information, and b a first indication of the species distributions within the project areas.

  15. A gap analysis of the South African innovation system for water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    building activity with participants in the water sector. ... environment within universities; strengthening support for entrepreneurs; and creating centres of competency with strong industrialdesign and economic- and market analysis capabilities.

  16. Activity Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Production Economics Theory and Practical Farm Management Procedures

    OpenAIRE

    Longworth, John W.; Menz, Kenneth M.

    1980-01-01

    This paper is addressed to the traditional problem of demonstrating the relevance of production theory to management-oriented people. Activity analysis, it is argued, is the most appropriate pedagogic framework within which to commence either a production economics or a farm management course. Production economics theory has not been widely accepted as a useful method for the analysis of practical management problems. The theory has been traditionally presented in terms of continuous function...

  17. Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I.

    1997-09-01

    This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

  18. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  19. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle

    2015-01-01

    of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three......The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup...... preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity...

  20. When do cancer patients regret their treatment decision? A path analysis of the influence of clinicians' communication styles and the match of decision-making styles on decision regret.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolai, Jennifer; Buchholz, Angela; Seefried, Nathalie; Reuter, Katrin; Härter, Martin; Eich, Wolfgang; Bieber, Christiane

    2016-05-01

    To test the influence of physician empathy (PE), shared decision making (SDM), and the match between patients' preferred and perceived decision-making styles on patients' decision regret. Patients with breast or colon cancer (n=71) completed questionnaires immediately following (T1) and three months after a consultation (T2). Path analysis was used to examine the relationships among patient demographics, patient reports of PE, SDM, the match between preferred and perceived decision-making styles, and patient decision regret at T2. After controlling for clinician clusters, higher PE was directly associated with more SDM (β=0.43, pstyle to patients' expectations should be encouraged. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.