Regression analysis for bivariate gap time with missing first gap time data.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chia-Hui; Chen, Yi-Hau

2017-01-01

We consider ordered bivariate gap time while data on the first gap time are unobservable. This study is motivated by the HIV infection and AIDS study, where the initial HIV contracting time is unavailable, but the diagnosis times for HIV and AIDS are available. We are interested in studying the risk factors for the gap time between initial HIV contraction and HIV diagnosis, and gap time between HIV and AIDS diagnoses. Besides, the association between the two gap times is also of interest. Accordingly, in the data analysis we are faced with two-fold complexity, namely data on the first gap time is completely missing, and the second gap time is subject to induced informative censoring due to dependence between the two gap times. We propose a modeling framework for regression analysis of bivariate gap time under the complexity of the data. The estimating equations for the covariate effects on, as well as the association between, the two gap times are derived through maximum likelihood and suitable counting processes. Large sample properties of the resulting estimators are developed by martingale theory. Simulations are performed to examine the performance of the proposed analysis procedure. An application of data from the HIV and AIDS study mentioned above is reported for illustration.

IAEA Review for Gap Analysis of Safety Analysis Capability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basic, Ivica; Kim, Manwoong; Huges, Peter; Lim, B-K; D'Auria, Francesco; Louis, Vidard Michael

2014-01-01

The IAEA Asian Nuclear Safety Network (ANSN) was launched in 2002 in the framework of the Extra Budgetary Programme (EBP) on the Safety of Nuclear Installations in the South East Asia, Pacific and Far East Countries. The main objective is to strengthen and expand human and advanced Information Technology (IT) network to pool, analyse and share nuclear safety knowledge and practical experience for peaceful uses in this region. Under the ANSN framework, a technical group on Safety Analysis (SATG) was established in 2004 aimed to providing a forum for the exchange of experience in the following areas of safety analysis: · To provide a forum for an exchange of experience in the area of safety analysis, · To maintain and improve the knowledge on safety analysis method, · To enhance the utilization of computer codes, · To pool and analyse the issues related with safety analysis of research reactor, and · To facilitate mutual interested on safety analysis among member countries. A sustainable and successful nuclear energy programme requires a strong technical infrastructure, including a workforce made up of highly specialized and well-educated professionals. A significant portion of this technical capacity must be dedicated to safety- especially to safety analysis- as only then can it serve as the basis for making the right decisions during the planning, licensing, construction and operation of new nuclear facilities. In this regard, the IAEA has provided ANSN member countries with comprehensive training opportunities for capacity building in safety analysis. Nevertheless, the SATG recognizes that it is difficult to achieve harmonization in this area among all member countries because of their different competency levels. Therefore, it is necessary to quickly identify the most obvious gaps in safety analysis capability and then to use existing resources to begin to fill those gaps. The goal of this Expert Mission (EM) for gap finding service is to facilitate

Gap Analysis: Rethinking the Conceptual Foundations

Science.gov (United States)

2008-04-23

there could exist a basis for gap in capability and, therefore, a desire to close the capability gap . What one desires versus what one has is, in...Analysis is not intended to close the space between the most distant extremes or the rarest occurrences. Rather, Gap Analysis is centered on the larger...åÖÉ=======- 13 - = = Research Objectives The process of identifying needs and unsatisfied desires, or gaps in capability—in essence, the goal—is

Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

Sensitivity of super-efficient data envelopment analysis results to individual decision-making units: an example of surgical workload by specialty.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; O'Neill, Liam; Xin, Lei; Ledolter, Johannes

2008-12-01

We use resampling of data to explore the basic statistical properties of super-efficient data envelopment analysis (DEA) when used as a benchmarking tool by the manager of a single decision-making unit. Our focus is the gaps in the outputs (i.e., slacks adjusted for upward bias), as they reveal which outputs can be increased. The numerical experiments show that the estimates of the gaps fail to exhibit asymptotic consistency, a property expected for standard statistical inference. Specifically, increased sample sizes were not always associated with more accurate forecasts of the output gaps. The baseline DEA's gaps equaled the mode of the jackknife and the mode of resampling with/without replacement from any subset of the population; usually, the baseline DEA's gaps also equaled the median. The quartile deviations of gaps were close to zero when few decision-making units were excluded from the sample and the study unit happened to have few other units contributing to its benchmark. The results for the quartile deviations can be explained in terms of the effective combinations of decision-making units that contribute to the DEA solution. The jackknife can provide all the combinations contributing to the quartile deviation and only needs to be performed for those units that are part of the benchmark set. These results show that there is a strong rationale for examining DEA results with a sensitivity analysis that excludes one benchmark hospital at a time. This analysis enhances the quality of decision support using DEA estimates for the potential ofa decision-making unit to grow one or more of its outputs.

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

1995-10-01

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

Emplacement Gantry Gap Analysis Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornley, R.

2005-01-01

To date, the project has established important to safety (ITS) performance requirements for structures, systems, and components (SSCs) based on the identification and categorization of event sequences that may result in a radiological release. These performance requirements are defined within the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) (BSC 2005 [DIRS 171512], Table A-11). Further, SSCs credited with performing safety functions are classified as ITS. In turn, assurance that these SSCs will perform as required is sought through the use of consensus codes and standards. This gap analysis is based on the design completed for license application only. Accordingly, identification of ITS SSCs beyond those defined within the NSDB are based on designs that may be subject to further development during detail design. Furthermore, several design alternatives may still be under consideration to satisfy certain safety functions, and final selection will not be determined until further design development has occurred. Therefore, for completeness, alternative designs currently under consideration will be discussed throughout this study. This gap analysis will evaluate each code and standard identified within the ''Emplacement Gantry ITS Standards Identification Study'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173586]) to ensure each ITS performance requirement is fully satisfied. When a performance requirement is not fully satisfied, a gap is highlighted. This study will identify requirements to supplement or augment the code or standard to meet performance requirements. Further, this gap analysis will identify nonstandard areas of the design that will be subject to a design development plan. Nonstandard components and nonstandard design configurations are defined as areas of the design that do not follow standard industry practices or codes and standards. Whereby, assurance that an SSC will perform as required may not be readily sought though the use of consensus standards. This

Analyzing the "CareGap": assessing gaps in adherence to clinical guidelines in adult soft tissue sarcoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Waks, Zeev; Goldbraich, Esther; Farkash, Ariel; Torresani, Michele; Bertulli, Rossella; Restifo, Nicola; Locatelli, Paolo; Casali, Paolo; Carmeli, Boaz

2013-01-01

Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) are gaining popularity as tools that assist physicians in optimizing medical care. These systems typically comply with evidence-based medicine and are designed with input from domain experts. Nonetheless, deviations from CDSS recommendations are abundant across a broad spectrum of disorders, raising the question as to why this phenomenon exists. Here, we analyze this gap in adherence to a clinical guidelines-based CDSS by examining the physician treatment decisions for 1329 adult soft tissue sarcoma patients in northern Italy using patient-specific parameters. Dubbing this analysis "CareGap", we find that deviations correlate strongly with certain disease features such as local versus metastatic clinical presentation. We also notice that deviations from the guideline-based CDSS suggestions occur more frequently for patients with shorter survival time. Such observations can direct physicians' attention to distinct patient cohorts that are prone to higher deviation levels from clinical practice guidelines. This illustrates the value of CareGap analysis in assessing quality of care for subsets of patients within a larger pathology.

Science in Society: Bridging the gap to connect science to decision makers

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, L.; Bwarie, J.; Pearce, I.

2016-12-01

The gap between science and decision making in our society can be large and multi-faceted, involving communication, process, cultural and even subconscious differences. In sweeping generalization, scientists reject anecdotes, focus on uncertainty and details, and expect conflict as part of the scientific process, while non-scientists respond to stories, want certainty and the big picture, and see conflict as a reason to reject the message. Bridging this gap often requires ongoing collaboration to find the intersection of three independent domains: what science can provide, the technical information decision makers need to make the most effective choices and what information decision makers need to motivate action. For ten years, the USGS has experimented with improving the usefulness of its science through the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Through leading and participating in these activities, we have recognized 3 steps that have been essential to successful partnerships between scientists and decision makers. First, determining what makes for a successful product cannot be done in isolation by either scientists or users. The users may want something science cannot produce (e.g., accurate short-term earthquake predictions), while the scientists can fail to see that the product they know how to make may not be relevant to the decisions that need to be made. Real discussions with real exchange and absorption of information on both sides makes for the most useful products. Second, most scientific results need work beyond what belongs in a journal to create a product that can be used. This is not just a different style of communication, but analyses that focus on the community's local questions rather than on scientific advances. Third, probabilities of natural hazards almost never motivate action to mitigate. The probabilities are usually low on human time

Gap analysis: rethinking the conceptual foundations

OpenAIRE

Langford, Gary O.; Franck, Raymond; Huynh, Tom; Lewis, Ira A.

2007-01-01

Acquisition research (Graduate School of Business & Public Policy) Gap Analysis is widely regarded as a useful tool to facilitate commercial and defense system acquisitions. This paper is a rethinking of the theoretical foundations and systematics of Gap Analysis with practical extensions to illustrate its utility and limitations. It also provides a new perspective on those theoretical foundations from the perspectives of systems and value engineering. The growing sophistication and comple...

New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

2010-12-01

Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

Studi Kelayakan Implementasi SAP dengan Metode Fit/Gap Analysis dan CBA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nurlina Nurlina

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An application system is required by a company to meet the needs of enterprise business processes so as to provide information quickly and accurately. Therefore, it is necessary to study the feasibility status of plan of enterprise system implementation. SAP R/3 contains various modules which is deserved to be considered as a company's information system solution. Results of the feasibility study through the analysis of fit/ gap analysis state that the implementation of SAP R/3 sales module is feasible and able to meet all the needs of the system.Results of cost and benefit analysis state that the strategy implementation of SAP R/3 module is feasible. Based on the analysis and research using the two methods above, a decision can be taken whether the SAP R/3 is worth to be implemented or not.

Flexible Decision Support in Dynamic Interorganizational Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J. Collins (John); W. Ketter (Wolfgang); M. Gini (Maria)

2008-01-01

textabstractAn effective Decision Support System (DSS) should help its users improve decision-making in complex, information-rich, environments. We present a feature gap analysis that shows that current decision support technologies lack important qualities for a new generation of agile business

Columbia River Component Data Gap Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

L. C. Hulstrom

2007-10-23

This Data Gap Analysis report documents the results of a study conducted by Washington Closure Hanford (WCH) to compile and reivew the currently available surface water and sediment data for the Columbia River near and downstream of the Hanford Site. This Data Gap Analysis study was conducted to review the adequacy of the existing surface water and sediment data set from the Columbia River, with specific reference to the use of the data in future site characterization and screening level risk assessments.

Trunnion Collar Removal Machine - Gap Analysis Table

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, M.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this document is to review the existing the trunnion collar removal machine against the ''Nuclear Safety Design Bases for License Application'' (NSDB) [Ref. 10] requirements and to identify codes and standards and supplemental requirements to meet these requirements. If these codes and standards can not fully meet these requirements then a ''gap'' is identified. These gaps will be identified here and addressed using the ''Trunnion Collar Removal Machine Design Development Plan'' [Ref. 15]. The codes and standards, supplemental requirements, and design development requirements for the trunnion collar removal machine are provided in the gap analysis table (Appendix A, Table 1). Because the trunnion collar removal machine is credited with performing functions important to safety (ITS) in the NSDB [Ref. 10], design basis requirements are applicable to ensure equipment is available and performs required safety functions when needed. The gap analysis table is used to identify design objectives and provide a means to satisfy safety requirements. To ensure that the trunnion collar removal machine performs required safety functions and meets performance criteria, this portion of the gap analysis tables supplies codes and standards sections and the supplemental requirements and identifies design development requirements, if needed

Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Schaafsma, Joanna D; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Buskens, Erik

2009-12-01

The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of diagnostic tests. Overview and conceptual discussion. Diagnostic research requires a stepwise approach comprising assessment of test characteristics followed by evaluation of added value, clinical outcome, and cost-effectiveness. These multiple goals are generally incompatible with a randomized design. Decision-analytic models provide an important alternative through integration of the best available evidence. Thus, critical assessment of clinical value and efficient use of resources can be achieved. Decision-analytic models should be considered part of the standard methodology in diagnostic research. They can serve as a valid alternative to diagnostic randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Implementing shared decision making in federally qualified health centers, a quasi-experimental design study: the Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) program.

Science.gov (United States)

Olomu, Adesuwa; Hart-Davidson, William; Luo, Zhehui; Kelly-Blake, Karen; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret

2016-08-02

Use of Shared Decision-Making (SDM) and Decision Aids (DAs) has been encouraged but is not regularly implemented in primary care. The Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) intervention is an application of a previous model revised to address guidelines based care for low-income populations with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). To evaluate Office-GAP Program feasibility and preliminary efficacy on medication use, patient satisfaction with physician communication and confidence in decision in low-income population with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a Federally Qualified Healthcare Center (FQHC). Ninety-five patients participated in an Office-GAP program. A quasi-experimental design study, over 6 months with 12-month follow-up. Office-GAP program integrates health literacy, communication skills education for patients and physicians, patient/physician decision support tools and SDM into routine care. 1) Implementation rates of planned program elements 2) Patient satisfaction with communication and confidence in decision, and 3) Medication prescription rates. We used the GEE method for hierarchical logistic models, controlling for confounding. Feasibility of the Office-GAP program in the FQHC setting was established. We found significant increase in use of Aspirin/Plavix, statin and beta-blocker during follow-up compared to baseline: Aspirin OR 1.5 (95 % CI: 1.1, 2.2) at 3-months, 1.9 (1.3, 2.9) at 6-months, and 1.8 (1.2, 2.8) at 12-months. Statin OR 1.1 (1.0, 1.3) at 3-months and 1.5 (1.1, 2.2) at 12-months; beta-blocker 1.8 (1.1, 2.9) at 6-months and 12-months. Program elements were consistently used (≥ 98 % clinic attendance at training and tool used). Patient satisfaction with communication and confidence in decision increased. The use of Office-GAP program to teach SDM and use of DAs in real time was demonstrated to be feasible in FQHCs. It has the potential to improve satisfaction with physician communication and

Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaafsma, Joanna D.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J. E.; Buskens, Erik

2009-01-01

Objective: The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of

The awareness and want matrix with adoption gap ratio analysis for e-service diffusion effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Te-Hsin

2011-03-01

Since the hierarchical stages of a customer purchasing decision or innovation adoption process are interrelated, an analysis of all their stages, including awareness, want, and adoption, in relation to product or service diffusion, is urgently needed. Therefore, this study proposes the use of an awareness and want matrix, together with an adoption gap ratio analysis, to assess the effectiveness of innovation and technology diffusion for e-services. This study also conducts an empirical test on the promotion performance evaluation of 12 e-services promoted by the Taiwanese government.

Implementing shared decision making in federally qualified health centers, a quasi-experimental design study: the Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) program

OpenAIRE

Olomu, Adesuwa; Hart-Davidson, William; Luo, Zhehui; Kelly-Blake, Karen; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret

2016-01-01

Background Use of Shared Decision-Making (SDM) and Decision Aids (DAs) has been encouraged but is not regularly implemented in primary care. The Office-Guidelines Applied to Practice (Office-GAP) intervention is an application of a previous model revised to address guidelines based care for low-income populations with diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD). Objective: To evaluate Office-GAP Program feasibility and preliminary efficacy on medication use, patient satisfaction with physician ...

Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

Applications of a broad-spectrum tool for conservation and fisheries analysis: aquatic gap analysis

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, James E.; Steen, Paul J.; Lyons, John; Stewart, Jana S.

2009-01-01

Natural resources support all of our social and economic activities, as well as our biological existence. Humans have little control over most of the physical, biological, and sociological conditions dictating the status and capacity of natural resources in any particular area. However, the most rapid and threatening influences on natural resources typically are anthropogenic overuse and degradation. In addition, living natural resources (i.e., organisms) do not respect political boundaries, but are aware of their optimal habitat and environmental conditions. Most organisms have wider spatial ranges than the jurisdictional boundaries of environmental agencies that deal with them; even within those jurisdictions, information is patchy and disconnected. Planning and projecting effects of ecological management are difficult, because many organisms, habitat conditions, and interactions are involved. Conservation and responsible resource use involves wise management and manipulation of the aspects of the environment and biological communities that can be effectively changed. Tools and data sets that provide new insights and analysis capabilities can enhance the ability of resource managers to make wise decisions and plan effective, long-term management strategies. Aquatic gap analysis has been developed to provide those benefits. Gap analysis is more than just the assessment of the match or mis-match (i.e., gaps) between habitats of ecological value and areas with an appropriate level of environmental protection (e.g., refuges, parks, preserves), as the name suggests. Rather, a Gap Analysis project is a process which leads to an organized database of georeferenced information and previously available tools to examine conservation and other ecological issues; it provides a geographic analysis platform that serves as a foundation for aquatic ecological studies. This analytical tool box allows one to conduct assessments of all habitat elements within an area of interest

Decision Making Under Uncertainty - Bridging the Gap Between End User Needs and Science Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A.; Austin, E. K.

2012-12-01

Successful adaptation outcomes depend on decision making based on the best available climate science information. However, a fundamental barrier exists, namely the 'gap' between information that climate science can currently provide and the information that is practically useful for end users and decision makers. This study identifies the major contributing factors to the 'gap' from an Australian perspective and provides recommendations as to ways in which the 'gap' may be narrowed. This was achieved via a literature review, online survey (targeted to providers of climate information and end users of that information), workshop (where both climate scientists and end users came together to discuss key issues) and focus group. The study confirmed that uncertainty in climate science is a key barrier to adaptation. The issue of uncertainty was found to be multi-faceted, with issues identified in terms of communication of uncertainty, misunderstanding of uncertainty and the lack of tools/methods to deal with uncertainty. There were also key differences in terms of expectations for the future - most end users were of the belief that uncertainty associated with future climate projections would reduce within the next five to 10 years, however producers of climate science information were well aware that this would most likely not be the case. This is a concerning finding as end users may delay taking action on adaptation and risk planning until the uncertainties are reduced - a situation which may never eventuate or may occur after the optimal time for action. Improved communication and packaging of climate information was another key theme that was highlighted in this study. Importantly, it was made clear that improved communication is not just about more glossy brochures and presentations by climate scientists, rather there is a role for a program or group to fill this role (coined a 'knowledge broker' during the workshop and focus group). The role of the 'knowledge

Gap Analysis: Application to Earned Value Analysis

OpenAIRE

Langford, Gary O.; Franck, Raymond (Chip)

2008-01-01

Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program) Earned Value is regarded as a useful tool to monitor commercial and defense system acquisitions. This paper applies the theoretical foundations and systematics of Gap Analysis to improve Earned Value Management. As currently implemented, Earned Value inaccurately provides a higher value for the work performed. This preliminary research indicates that Earned Value calculations can be corrected. Value Analysis, properly defined and enacted,...

Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

2017-09-13

The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Efficient Computation of Info-Gap Robustness for Finite Element Models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stull, Christopher J.; Hemez, Francois M.; Williams, Brian J.

2012-01-01

A recent research effort at LANL proposed info-gap decision theory as a framework by which to measure the predictive maturity of numerical models. Info-gap theory explores the trade-offs between accuracy, that is, the extent to which predictions reproduce the physical measurements, and robustness, that is, the extent to which predictions are insensitive to modeling assumptions. Both accuracy and robustness are necessary to demonstrate predictive maturity. However, conducting an info-gap analysis can present a formidable challenge, from the standpoint of the required computational resources. This is because a robustness function requires the resolution of multiple optimization problems. This report offers an alternative, adjoint methodology to assess the info-gap robustness of Ax = b-like numerical models solved for a solution x. Two situations that can arise in structural analysis and design are briefly described and contextualized within the info-gap decision theory framework. The treatments of the info-gap problems, using the adjoint methodology are outlined in detail, and the latter problem is solved for four separate finite element models. As compared to statistical sampling, the proposed methodology offers highly accurate approximations of info-gap robustness functions for the finite element models considered in the report, at a small fraction of the computational cost. It is noted that this report considers only linear systems; a natural follow-on study would extend the methodologies described herein to include nonlinear systems.

An analysis of medical decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lusted, L.B.

1977-01-01

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

Information gaps in surveillance data and effects on the Ghanaian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Conclusions: Gaps on CRFs can significantly reduce the utility of results of laboratory analysis for outbreak con- trol. Although ..... use of information in state agency decision-making. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory. 2012 ...

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

Analysis of energy gap opening in graphene oxide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundie, Mark; Tomić, Stanko; Šljivančanin, Željko

2014-01-01

The utilisation of graphene structures as photonics materials mandates that an optically active electronic energy gap be formed. Opening of a gap in graphene has been demonstrated by functionalisation with H, F, or O atoms, while experimental observations of graphene oxide have hinted at interesting optical properties, with the potential for absorption of visible light. As such, our analysis is focused on O functionalisation of graphene. We present results from extensive ab initio and hybrid DFT calculations, demonstrating the creation of an optically active gap.

Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnum, George M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Van Buren, Kendra L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Song, Peter [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

2014-01-10

This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gap of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously

Analysis of Stakeholder-Defined Needs in Northeast U.S. Coastal Communities to Determine Gaps in Research Informing Coastal Resilience Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Molino, G. D.; Kenney, M. A.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Penn, K.

2017-12-01

The impacts of climate change on our coastlines are increasing pressure on communities, ecosystems, infrastructure, and state-to-local economies in the northeastern United States (U.S.). As a result of current or imminent risk of acute and chronic hazards, local, state and regional entities have taken steps to identify and address vulnerabilities to climate change. Decisions to increase coastal infrastructure resilience and grey, green, and cultural infrastructure solutions requires physical, natural, and social science that is useful for decision-making and effective science translation mechanisms. Despite the desire to conduct or fund science that meets the needs of communities, there has been no comprehensive analysis to determine stakeholder-defined research needs. To address this gap, this study conducts a stakeholder needs analysis in northeast U.S. coastal communities to determine gaps in information and translation processes supporting coastal resilience planning. Documents were sourced from local, state, and regional organizations in both the public and private sectors, using the northeast region defined by the third National Climate Assessment. Modeled after Dilling et al. (2015), a deductive coding schema was developed that categorized documents using specific search terms such as "Location and condition of infrastructure" and "Proactive planning". A qualitative document analysis was then executed using NVivo to formally identify patterns and themes present in stakeholder surveys, workshop proceedings, and reports. Initial stakeholder priorities centered around incorporation of climate science into planning and decision making regarding vulnerabilities of infrastructure, enhanced emergency planning and response, and communication of key information.

Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S

2016-01-01

Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amal Kumar

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire D Tomkins

2006-09-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

2017-06-13

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, Dirk U; Mergenthaler-Canseco, Max; Hertwig, Ralph

2018-02-01

People can learn about the probabilistic consequences of their actions in two ways: One is by consulting descriptions of an action's consequences and probabilities (e.g., reading up on a medication's side effects). The other is by personally experiencing the probabilistic consequences of an action (e.g., beta testing software). In principle, people taking each route can reach analogous states of knowledge and consequently make analogous decisions. In the last dozen years, however, research has demonstrated systematic discrepancies between description- and experienced-based choices. This description-experience gap has been attributed to factors including reliance on a small set of experience, the impact of recency, and different weighting of probability information in the two decision types. In this meta-analysis focusing on studies using the sampling paradigm of decisions from experience, we evaluated these and other determinants of the decision-experience gap by reference to more than 70,000 choices made by more than 6,000 participants. We found, first, a robust description-experience gap but also a key moderator, namely, problem structure. Second, the largest determinant of the gap was reliance on small samples and the associated sampling error: free to terminate search, individuals explored too little to experience all possible outcomes. Third, the gap persisted when sampling error was basically eliminated, suggesting other determinants. Fourth, the occurrence of recency was contingent on decision makers' autonomy to terminate search, consistent with the notion of optional stopping. Finally, we found indications of different probability weighting in decisions from experience versus decisions from description when the problem structure involved a risky and a safe option. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem

2010-01-01

In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique.

Inception report and gap analysis. Boiler inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-06-01

This inception and gap analysis report on boilers in Latvia, has been prepared in the framework of the 'Implementation of the EU directive on energy performance of buildings: development of the Latvian Scheme for energy auditing of building and inspection of boilers'. The report is the basis for the establishment of training of boiler inspectors; it develops a gap analysis for better understanding and estimating the number of installations in Latvia and develops suggestions for the institutional set up. In particular includes information on existing standard and regulation on boiler, suggestion for the content of the training material of experts for boiler inspections and a syllabus of the training course. A specific section is dedicated to the suggestion for certification system of trained boiler inspectors. (au)

Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

1999-01-01

Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Inception report and gap analysis. Boiler inspection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-06-01

This inception and gap analysis report on boilers in Latvia, has been prepared in the framework of the 'Implementation of the EU directive on energy performance of buildings: development of the Latvian Scheme for energy auditing of building and inspection of boilers'. The report is the basis for the establishment of training of boiler inspectors; it develops a gap analysis for better understanding and estimating the number of installations in Latvia and develops suggestions for the institutional set up. In particular includes information on existing standard and regulation on boiler, suggestion for the content of the training material of experts for boiler inspections and a syllabus of the training course. A specific section is dedicated to the suggestion for certification system of trained boiler inspectors. (au)

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

2007-01-01

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zare, Kazem; Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa; Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem [Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-111, Tehran (Iran)

2010-01-15

In the competitive electricity market, consumers seek strategies to meet their electricity needs at minimum cost and risk. This paper provides a technique based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to assess different procurement strategies for large consumers. Supply sources include bilateral contracts, a limited self-generating facility, and the pool. It is considered that the pool price is uncertain and its volatility around the estimated value is modeled using an IGDT model. The proposed method does not minimize the procurement cost but assesses the risk aversion or risk-taking nature of some procurement strategies with regard to the minimum cost. Using this method, the robustness of experiencing costs higher than the expected one is optimized and the related strategy is determined. The proposed method deals with optimizing the opportunities to take advantage of low procurement costs or low pool prices. A case study is used to illustrate the proposed technique. (author)

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

2016-01-01

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

2015-06-01

Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Analysis of Gap in TQM Indicators in Health Care Institutions (Case: Isfahan Khorshid Hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Sadr-Bafghi

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Many organizations, especially, service organizations, relative to their goals and mission, have a special view towards quality phenomena and its management and are turning to approaches such as TQM to help manage their business. This study examined the TQM indicators gap in Isfahan Khorshid hospital. As fuzzy set theory is better than the logical theory for estimating the linguistic factors, this paper tries to apply fuzzy approach to quality management in hospitals and analyzes the gap between personnel expectations and perception. Methods: This paper analyzes medical total quality management in a case (Internal Section of Khorshid Hospital, based on gap analysis model and fuzzy logic. A questionnaire was therefore applied to measure expectations and perceptions of hospital personnel. Results: This study results show that on the whole, there is a significant difference between TQM expectations and perceptions among K`horshid hospital personnel. Conclusions: Spurred by impressive results in other industries, this compelling and logical approach has begun to penetrate the thinking of health care accrediting agencies, business coalitions, private foundations and leading health care organizations. However, before making a commitment to TQM, hospital decision makers should thoroughly understand what it is they are committing to, and solve the main barriers such as the conflict between hospital management philosophies and TQM philosophies.

Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition.

Science.gov (United States)

Naser, Mohamed M; Zulkiple, Adnan; Al Bargi, Walid A; Khalifa, Nasradeen A; Daniel, Basil David

2017-12-01

There are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade. This paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results. From the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians' decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing. The inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Byung Do

2006-01-01

During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

Sustainable Water Infrastructure Asset Management: A Gap Analysis of Customer and Service Provider Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sangjong Han

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The ultimate goal of urban water infrastructure asset management may be sustainable water supply with satisfaction for customers. In this work, we attempted to evaluate the gaps between the perspectives of customers and service providers in Korea’s water infrastructure asset management. To evaluate the customers’ perspective, a hierarchical questionnaire survey was conducted to estimate the weights of influence for six customer values and their attributes on Korean water utility management. To evaluate the service providers’ perspective, an AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis was performed to estimate the weights of influence for the customer values and their PIs (performance indicators. The gap analysis results show that customers place higher value on customer service satisfaction (emotion and information than do the service providers (managers, whereas the managers place more value on affordability than do the customers. The findings from this work imply that improving customer service is effective in satisfying the desirable water LOS (level of service for customers. Recommendations have also been provided for administrators and engineers to develop integrated decision-making systems that can reflect customer needs regarding the improvement of their water infrastructure asset management. The findings from this work may be helpful for the Korean government and water supply utilities in improving the sustainability of their water infrastructure asset management.

Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kejser, Ulla Bøgvad

2014-01-01

they breakdown costs. This is followed by an in depth analysis of stakeholders’ needs for financial information derived from the 4C project stakeholder consultation.The stakeholders’ needs analysis indicated that models should:• support accounting, but more importantly they should enable budgeting• be able......his report ’D3.1—Evaluation of Cost Models and Needs & Gaps Analysis’ provides an analysis of existing research related to the economics of digital curation and cost & benefit modelling. It reports upon the investigation of how well current models and tools meet stakeholders’ needs for calculating...... andcomparing financial information. Based on this evaluation, it aims to point out gaps that need to be bridged in order to increase the uptake of cost & benefit modelling and good practices that will enable costing and comparison of the costs of alternative scenarios—which in turn provides a starting point...

Upper Midwest Gap Analysis Program, Image Processing Protocol

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lillesand, Thomas

1998-01-01

This document presents a series of technical guidelines by which land cover information is being extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper data as part of the Upper Midwest Gap Analysis Program (UMGAP...

Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lupia, S.; Giovannini, A.; Ugoccioni, R.

1995-01-01

Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

Clan structure analysis and rapidity gap probability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lupia, S. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Giovannini, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy); Ugoccioni, R. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica]|[Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Turin (Italy)

1995-03-01

Clan structure analysis in rapidity intervals is generalized from negative binomial multiplicity distribution to the wide class of compound Poisson distributions. The link of generalized clan structure analysis with correlation functions is also established. These theoretical results are then applied to minimum bias events and evidentiate new interesting features, which can be inspiring and useful in order to discuss data on rapidity gap probability at TEVATRON and HERA. (orig.)

A decision analysis framework to support long-term planning for nuclear fuel cycle technology research, development, demonstration and deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sowder, A.G.; Machiels, A.J.; Dykes, A.A.; Johnson, D.H.

2013-01-01

To address challenges and gaps in nuclear fuel cycle option assessment and to support research, develop and demonstration programs oriented toward commercial deployment, EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) is seeking to develop and maintain an independent analysis and assessment capability by building a suite of assessment tools based on a platform of software, simplified relationships, and explicit decision-making and evaluation guidelines. As a demonstration of the decision-support framework, EPRI examines a relatively near-term fuel cycle option, i.e., use of reactor-grade mixed-oxide fuel (MOX) in U.S. light water reactors. The results appear as a list of significant concerns (like cooling of spent fuels, criticality risk...) that have to be taken into account for the final decision

GAP ANALYSIS PROGRAM GIZI DAN KESEHATAN DI POSYANDU KABUPATEN BOGOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Endang Nikmawati

2012-03-01

Full Text Available 800x600 Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Revitalization of Integrated Service Center Post (Posyandu is successful when  focused to its main function as community institution services. Determine gap analysis program based on tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy dimension. Exploratory and experimental designs was applied in this study, which was conducted at Darmaga and Ciomas district, Bogor Regency from March to August 2008. The data included primary and secondary data. The respondent in the experiment was 240 mothers of children under five years and 80 cadres. Gap analysis was used to know the expected and the real nutrition and health program of respondent. Totally 96 balita’s mother, pregnancy and reproductive women and 16 cadres were involved in this study. The average of gap realization with standard tool -0,75; Tangibles dimension -0,35; Reliability -0,10; Responsiveness -0,37; Assurance  -0,44, and Empathy -0,47, its mean that a tools accomplisment only 25% (less; tangible dimension 65% (enough; reliability 90% (good; responsiveness dimension 63% (enough; assurance dimension  56% (less and emphaty 53%  (less, respectively.   Key words:  posyandu performance,  nutrition education, gap analysis

Distributed Cognition in Cancer Treatment Decision Making: An Application of the DECIDE Decision-Making Styles Typology.

Science.gov (United States)

Krieger, Janice L; Krok-Schoen, Jessica L; Dailey, Phokeng M; Palmer-Wackerly, Angela L; Schoenberg, Nancy; Paskett, Electra D; Dignan, Mark

2017-07-01

Distributed cognition occurs when cognitive and affective schemas are shared between two or more people during interpersonal discussion. Although extant research focuses on distributed cognition in decision making between health care providers and patients, studies show that caregivers are also highly influential in the treatment decisions of patients. However, there are little empirical data describing how and when families exert influence. The current article addresses this gap by examining decisional support in the context of cancer randomized clinical trial (RCT) decision making. Data are drawn from in-depth interviews with rural, Appalachian cancer patients ( N = 46). Analysis of transcript data yielded empirical support for four distinct models of health decision making. The implications of these findings for developing interventions to improve the quality of treatment decision making and overall well-being are discussed.

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

[Effects of gap size on seedling natural regeneration in artificial Pinus tabulaeformis plantation].

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wen-Juan; Yuan, Xiao-Qing; Zhang, Wen-Hui

2012-11-01

To clarify the effects of gap size created by thinning on the seedling natural regeneration in artificial Pinus tabulaeformis plantation, a plot investigation was conducted to study the ecological factors and the age structure, height, diameter, length of needles, and dry biomass of roots, stems, and needles of 1-10 year-old seedlings in different habitats, and a path analysis was made on the environmental factors affecting the seedling regeneration. Obvious differences were observed in the ecological factors in different size gaps and slope aspects. There lacked of above 3 year-old seedlings in understory and of above 7 year-old seedlings in small gap, and the seedlings of 5 and 6 year-old were lesser in big gap. The 1-10 year-old seedlings could be divided into 3 development phases, i. e. , 1-3 year-old, 4-7 year-old, and 8-10 year-old seedlings, among which, 1-3 year-old seedlings were critical for the establishment and growth of the population. The growth situation of the seedlings in different habitats was in order of big gap in shady slope > big gap in sunny slope > small gap in sunny slope > small gap in shady slope > understory in sunny slope > understory in shady slope. Path analysis showed light intensity had decisive positive effects on the seedling number of different development phases, shrub coverage had decisive negative effects on the seedling number of 4-7 year-old and 8-10 year-old phases, whereas humus dry mass had negative effects on the seedling number of 4-7 year-old but positive effects on the seedling number of 8-10 year-old. It was suggested that in the management of artificial P. tabulaeformis plantation, relatively high intensity thinning combined with shrub clearing should be adopted to provide favorable conditions for the sustainable development of P. tabulaeformis population.

Gene Circuit Analysis of the Terminal Gap Gene huckebein

Science.gov (United States)

Ashyraliyev, Maksat; Siggens, Ken; Janssens, Hilde; Blom, Joke; Akam, Michael; Jaeger, Johannes

2009-01-01

The early embryo of Drosophila melanogaster provides a powerful model system to study the role of genes in pattern formation. The gap gene network constitutes the first zygotic regulatory tier in the hierarchy of the segmentation genes involved in specifying the position of body segments. Here, we use an integrative, systems-level approach to investigate the regulatory effect of the terminal gap gene huckebein (hkb) on gap gene expression. We present quantitative expression data for the Hkb protein, which enable us to include hkb in gap gene circuit models. Gap gene circuits are mathematical models of gene networks used as computational tools to extract regulatory information from spatial expression data. This is achieved by fitting the model to gap gene expression patterns, in order to obtain estimates for regulatory parameters which predict a specific network topology. We show how considering variability in the data combined with analysis of parameter determinability significantly improves the biological relevance and consistency of the approach. Our models are in agreement with earlier results, which they extend in two important respects: First, we show that Hkb is involved in the regulation of the posterior hunchback (hb) domain, but does not have any other essential function. Specifically, Hkb is required for the anterior shift in the posterior border of this domain, which is now reproduced correctly in our models. Second, gap gene circuits presented here are able to reproduce mutants of terminal gap genes, while previously published models were unable to reproduce any null mutants correctly. As a consequence, our models now capture the expression dynamics of all posterior gap genes and some variational properties of the system correctly. This is an important step towards a better, quantitative understanding of the developmental and evolutionary dynamics of the gap gene network. PMID:19876378

A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurth, Margaret; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Bates, Matthew E.; Bridges, Todd S.; Summers, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2017-01-01

Research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) aims to facilitate a clean and independent energy future for the nation. Strategic planning for energy research and development (R&D) can be complex and dynamic, in part due to federal budgetary constraints and volatility. Managing R&D funding to advance energy technologies, in spite of these challenges, is a crucial component of the nation's long term energy policy. This study demonstrates a portfolio decision analysis (PDA) approach to support R&D resource allocation decisions for the DOE Office of Fossil Energy's Carbon Capture and Storage R&D program. A multi-attribute value model uses technology readiness levels (TRLs) and other metrics to represent the overall objectives of the R&D program in order to evaluate alternative research portfolios given limited funding. Mathematical optimization identifies efficient funding allocations for each technology program area to maximize the multi-attribute value generated from the total budget. This is especially useful for responding to externally imposed budget changes. As the case study demonstrates, explicitly funding the most value-generating options leads to greater expected R&D programmatic value than typical strategies of equal or proportional distributions of a budget change among technology program areas. - Highlights: • Decision analysis can minimize the effect of a budget decrement on an R&D program. • Greater expected benefits are yielded by differentially funding technologies. • Budget scenario testing illustrates factors that influence value generation. • Coordinating with US DOE bridges gap between decision research and practice.

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Mathematical analysis of the multiband BCS gap equations in superconductivity

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yisong

2005-01-01

In this paper, we present a mathematical analysis for the phonon-dominated multiband isotropic and anisotropic BCS gap equations at any finite temperature T. We establish the existence of a critical temperature T so that, when TT, the only nonnegative gap solution is the zero solution, representing the normal phase. Furthermore, when T=T, we prove that the only gap solution is the zero solution and that the positive gap solution depend on the temperature TMarkowitz-Kadanoff model and we prove that the presence of anisotropic fluctuations enhances T as in the single-band case. A special consequence of these results is that the half-unity exponent isotope effect may rigorously be proved in the multiband BCS theory, isotropic or anisotropic.

Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

1992-01-01

This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.

1985-01-01

According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

Fit Gap Analysis – The Role of Business Process Reference Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dejan Pajk

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Enterprise resource planning (ERP systems support solutions for standard business processes such as financial, sales, procurement and warehouse. In order to improve the understandability and efficiency of their implementation, ERP vendors have introduced reference models that describe the processes and underlying structure of an ERP system. To select and successfully implement an ERP system, the capabilities of that system have to be compared with a company’s business needs. Based on a comparison, all of the fits and gaps must be identified and further analysed. This step usually forms part of ERP implementation methodologies and is called fit gap analysis. The paper theoretically overviews methods for applying reference models and describes fit gap analysis processes in detail. The paper’s first contribution is its presentation of a fit gap analysis using standard business process modelling notation. The second contribution is the demonstration of a process-based comparison approach between a supply chain process and an ERP system process reference model. In addition to its theoretical contributions, the results can also be practically applied to projects involving the selection and implementation of ERP systems.

Dysfunctions of decision-making and cognitive control as transdiagnostic mechanisms of mental disorders: advances, gaps, and needs in current research.

Science.gov (United States)

Goschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

Disadvantageous decision-making and impaired volitional control over actions, thoughts, and emotions are characteristics of a wide range of mental disorders such as addiction, eating disorders, depression, and anxiety disorders and may reflect transdiagnostic core mechanisms and possibly vulnerability factors. Elucidating the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms is a precondition for moving from symptom-based to mechanism-based disorder classifications and ultimately mechanism-targeted interventions. However, despite substantial advances in basic research on decision-making and cognitive control, there are still profound gaps in our current understanding of dysfunctions of these processes in mental disorders. Central unresolved questions are: (i) to which degree such dysfunctions reflect transdiagnostic mechanisms or disorder-specific patterns of impairment; (ii) how phenotypical features of mental disorders relate to dysfunctional control parameter settings and aberrant interactions between large-scale brain systems involved in habit and reward-based learning, performance monitoring, emotion regulation, and cognitive control; (iii) whether cognitive control impairments are consequences or antecedent vulnerability factors of mental disorders; (iv) whether they reflect generalized competence impairments or context-specific performance failures; (v) whether not only impaired but also chronic over-control contributes to mental disorders. In the light of these gaps, needs for future research are: (i) an increased focus on basic cognitive-affective mechanisms underlying decision and control dysfunctions across disorders; (ii) longitudinal-prospective studies systematically incorporating theory-driven behavioural tasks and neuroimaging protocols to assess decision-making and control dysfunctions and aberrant interactions between underlying large-scale brain systems; (iii) use of latent-variable models of cognitive control rather than single tasks; (iv) increased focus on

Looking beyond the forest: Using harvest plots, gap analysis, and expert consultations to assess effectiveness, engage stakeholders, and inform policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, J; Polus, S; Brereton, L; Chilcott, J; Ward, S E; Pfadenhauer, L M; Rehfuess, E A

2018-03-01

We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home-based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home-based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Yield gap analysis of feed-crop livestock systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linden, van der Aart; Oosting, Simon J.; Ven, van de Gerrie W.J.; Veysset, Patrick; Boer, de Imke J.M.; Ittersum, van Martin K.

2018-01-01

Sustainable intensification is a strategy contributing to global food security. The scope for sustainable intensification in crop sciences can be assessed through yield gap analysis, using crop growth models based on concepts of production ecology. Recently, an analogous cattle production model

Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

2018-01-01

systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

Crop insurance demand in wheat production: focusing on yield gaps and asymmetric information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castañeda-Vera, A.; Saa-Requejo, A.; Mínguez, I.; Garrido, A.

2017-01-01

Analysis of yield gaps were conducted in the context of crop insurance and used to build an indicator of asymmetric information. The possible influence of asymmetric information in the decision of Spanish wheat producers to contract insurance was additionally evaluated. The analysis includes simulated yield using a validated crop model, CERES-Wheat previously selected among others, whose suitability to estimate actual risk when no historical data are available was assessed. Results suggest that the accuracy in setting the insured yield is decisive in farmers’ willingness to contract crop insurance under the wider coverage. Historical insurance data, when available, provide a more robust technical basis to evaluate and calibrate insurance parameters than simulated data, using crop models. Nevertheless, the use of crop models might be useful in designing new insurance packages when no historical data is available or to evaluate scenarios of expected changes. In that case, it is suggested that yield gaps be estimated and considered when using simulated attainable yields.

Crop insurance demand in wheat production: focusing on yield gaps and asymmetric information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Castañeda-Vera, A.; Saa-Requejo, A.; Mínguez, I.; Garrido, A.

2017-07-01

Analysis of yield gaps were conducted in the context of crop insurance and used to build an indicator of asymmetric information. The possible influence of asymmetric information in the decision of Spanish wheat producers to contract insurance was additionally evaluated. The analysis includes simulated yield using a validated crop model, CERES-Wheat previously selected among others, whose suitability to estimate actual risk when no historical data are available was assessed. Results suggest that the accuracy in setting the insured yield is decisive in farmers’ willingness to contract crop insurance under the wider coverage. Historical insurance data, when available, provide a more robust technical basis to evaluate and calibrate insurance parameters than simulated data, using crop models. Nevertheless, the use of crop models might be useful in designing new insurance packages when no historical data is available or to evaluate scenarios of expected changes. In that case, it is suggested that yield gaps be estimated and considered when using simulated attainable yields.

Mind the Gap

Science.gov (United States)

Fairbanks, Terry; Savage, Erica; Adams, Katie; Wittie, Michael; Boone, Edna; Hayden, Andrew; Barnes, Janey; Hettinger, Zach; Gettinger, Andrew

2016-01-01

Summary Objective Decisions made during electronic health record (EHR) implementations profoundly affect usability and safety. This study aims to identify gaps between the current literature and key stakeholders’ perceptions of usability and safety practices and the challenges encountered during the implementation of EHRs. Materials and Methods Two approaches were used: a literature review and interviews with key stakeholders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify usability and safety challenges and best practices during implementation. A total of 55 articles were reviewed through searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. We used a qualitative approach to identify key stakeholders’ perceptions; semi-structured interviews were conducted with a diverse set of health IT stakeholders to understand their current practices and challenges related to usability during implementation. We used a grounded theory approach: data were coded, sorted, and emerging themes were identified. Conclusions from both sources of data were compared to identify areas of misalignment. Results We identified six emerging themes from the literature and stakeholder interviews: cost and resources, risk assessment, governance and consensus building, customization, clinical work-flow and usability testing, and training. Across these themes, there were misalignments between the literature and stakeholder perspectives, indicating major gaps. Discussion Major gaps identified from each of six emerging themes are discussed as critical areas for future research, opportunities for new stakeholder initiatives, and opportunities to better disseminate resources to improve the implementation of EHRs. Conclusion Our analysis identified practices and challenges across six different emerging themes, illustrated important gaps, and results suggest critical areas for future research and dissemination to improve EHR implementation. PMID:27847961

Pedestrian temporal and spatial gap acceptance at mid-block street crossing in developing world.

Science.gov (United States)

Pawar, Digvijay S; Patil, Gopal R

2015-02-01

Most of the midblock pedestrian crossings on urban roads in India are uncontrolled; wherein the high degree of discretion in pedestrians' behavior while crossing the traffic stream, has made the situation complex to analyze. Vehicles do not yield to pedestrians, even though the traffic laws give priority to pedestrians over motorized vehicles at unsignalized pedestrian crossings. Therefore, a pedestrian has to decide if an available gap is safe or not for crossing. This paper aims to investigate pedestrian temporal and spatial gap acceptance for midblock street crossings. Field data were collected using video camera at two midblock pedestrian crossings. The data extraction in laboratory resulted in 1107 pedestrian gaps. Available gaps, pedestrians' decision, traffic volume, etc. were extracted from the videos. While crossing a road with multiple lanes, rolling gap acceptance behavior was observed. Using binary logit analysis, six utility models were developed, three each for temporal and spatial gaps. The 50th percentile temporal and spatial gaps ranged from 4.1 to 4.8s and 67 to 79 m respectively, whereas the 85th percentile temporal and spatial gaps ranged from 5 to 5.8s and 82 to 95 m respectively. These gap values were smaller than that reported in the studies in developed countries. The speed of conflicting vehicle was found to be significant in spatial gap but not in temporal gap acceptance. The gap acceptance decision was also found to be affected by the type of conflicting vehicles. The insights from this study can be used for the safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock street crossings in developing countries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Systemic accident analysis: examining the gap between research and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

2013-06-01

The systems approach is arguably the dominant concept within accident analysis research. Viewing accidents as a result of uncontrolled system interactions, it forms the theoretical basis of various systemic accident analysis (SAA) models and methods. Despite the proposed benefits of SAA, such as an improved description of accident causation, evidence within the scientific literature suggests that these techniques are not being used in practice and that a research-practice gap exists. The aim of this study was to explore the issues stemming from research and practice which could hinder the awareness, adoption and usage of SAA. To achieve this, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 42 safety experts from ten countries and a variety of industries, including rail, aviation and maritime. This study suggests that the research-practice gap should be closed and efforts to bridge the gap should focus on ensuring that systemic methods meet the needs of practitioners and improving the communication of SAA research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GapCoder automates the use of indel characters in phylogenetic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Nelson D; Healy, John

2003-02-19

Several ways of incorporating indels into phylogenetic analysis have been suggested. Simple indel coding has two strengths: (1) biological realism and (2) efficiency of analysis. In the method, each indel with different start and/or end positions is considered to be a separate character. The presence/absence of these indel characters is then added to the data set. We have written a program, GapCoder to automate this procedure. The program can input PIR format aligned datasets, find the indels and add the indel-based characters. The output is a NEXUS format file, which includes a table showing what region each indel characters is based on. If regions are excluded from analysis, this table makes it easy to identify the corresponding indel characters for exclusion. Manual implementation of the simple indel coding method can be very time-consuming, especially in data sets where indels are numerous and/or overlapping. GapCoder automates this method and is therefore particularly useful during procedures where phylogenetic analyses need to be repeated many times, such as when different alignments are being explored or when various taxon or character sets are being explored. GapCoder is currently available for Windows from http://www.home.duq.edu/~youngnd/GapCoder.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipley, J.P.

1978-01-01

Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

1994-01-01

To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

Science.gov (United States)

2002-06-01

Bayesian Decision Theory and Utilitarian Ethics ,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 68: 223-228 (May 1978). Hartsough, Bruce R. “A...1983). Morrell, Darryl and Eric Driver. “ Bayesian Network Implementation of Levi’s Epistemic Utility Decision Theory ,” International Journal Of...elicitation efficiency for the decision maker. Subject Terms Decision Analysis, Utility Theory , Elicitation Error, Operations Research, Decision

Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram

Science.gov (United States)

Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

2018-02-01

We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

Complexity of possibly gapped histogram and analysis of histogram.

Science.gov (United States)

Fushing, Hsieh; Roy, Tania

2018-02-01

We demonstrate that gaps and distributional patterns embedded within real-valued measurements are inseparable biological and mechanistic information contents of the system. Such patterns are discovered through data-driven possibly gapped histogram, which further leads to the geometry-based analysis of histogram (ANOHT). Constructing a possibly gapped histogram is a complex problem of statistical mechanics due to the ensemble of candidate histograms being captured by a two-layer Ising model. This construction is also a distinctive problem of Information Theory from the perspective of data compression via uniformity. By defining a Hamiltonian (or energy) as a sum of total coding lengths of boundaries and total decoding errors within bins, this issue of computing the minimum energy macroscopic states is surprisingly resolved by applying the hierarchical clustering algorithm. Thus, a possibly gapped histogram corresponds to a macro-state. And then the first phase of ANOHT is developed for simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments, while the second phase of ANOHT is developed based on classical empirical process theory for a tree-geometry that can check the authenticity of branches of the treatment tree. The well-known Iris data are used to illustrate our technical developments. Also, a large baseball pitching dataset and a heavily right-censored divorce data are analysed to showcase the existential gaps and utilities of ANOHT.

Research on monitoring technology of axial gap change about high-speed rotating machinery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xiaochan; Liu Fanglei; Hu Shihua; Xie Qing; Li Zhen

2014-01-01

This paper describes that the only measuring point of high-speed rotating machinery (speed monitoring transducer) measuring the operation of the axial gap change and application. According to mechanism analysis the speed monitoring transducer's signal, prove its amplitude changes including the axial gap change information. To carry out the speed monitoring transducer qualitative and quantitative axial gap change research, Find the output signal amplitude and clearance change corresponding relationship formula of speed monitoring transducer, define the measurement method. Based on the above analsis, manufacture the single channel measurement devices and multiple unit measurement system, provide an important fault decision of high-speed rotating machinery, it can be applied to new equipment development and production. (authors)

Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Kekytė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

Gap analysis: a method to assess core competency development in the curriculum.

Science.gov (United States)

Fater, Kerry H

2013-01-01

To determine the extent to which safety and quality improvement core competency development occurs in an undergraduate nursing program. Rapid change and increased complexity of health care environments demands that health care professionals are adequately prepared to provide high quality, safe care. A gap analysis compared the present state of competency development to a desirable (ideal) state. The core competencies, Nurse of the Future Nursing Core Competencies, reflect the ideal state and represent minimal expectations for entry into practice from pre-licensure programs. Findings from the gap analysis suggest significant strengths in numerous competency domains, deficiencies in two competency domains, and areas of redundancy in the curriculum. Gap analysis provides valuable data to direct curriculum revision. Opportunities for competency development were identified, and strategies were created jointly with the practice partner, thereby enhancing relevant knowledge, attitudes, and skills nurses need for clinical practice currently and in the future.

Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei

2016-01-01

With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Lai; Kin; Keung

2008-01-01

A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 3 - vaccines

Science.gov (United States)

In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. In this paper, we report updated findings in the field of FMD vaccine research. This paper consists of the following four sections: 1) Research priorities identified in the 2010 GFRA gap ana...

Automated qualification and analysis of protective spark gaps for DC accelerators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banerjee, Srutarshi; Rajan, Rehim N.; Dewangan, S.; Sharma, D.K.; Patel, Rupesh; Bakhtsingh, R.I.; Gond, Seema; Waghmare, Abhay; Thakur, Nitin; Mittal, K.C. [Accelerator and Pulse Power Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

2014-07-01

Protective spark gaps are used in the high voltage multiplier column of a 3 MeV DC Accelerator to prevent excessive voltage build-ups. Precise gap of 5 mm is maintained between the electrodes in these spark gaps for obtaining 120 kV± 5 kV in 6 kg/cm{sup 2} SF{sub 6} environment which is the dielectric medium. There are 74 such spark gaps used in the multiplier. Each spark gap has to be qualified for electrical performance before fitting in the accelerator to ensure reliable operation. As the breakdown voltage stabilizes after a large number of sparks between the electrodes, the qualification process becomes time consuming and cumbersome. For qualifying large number of spark gaps an automatic breakdown analysis setup has been developed. This setup operates in air, a dielectric medium. The setup consists of a flyback topology based high voltage power supply with maximum rating of 25 kV. This setup works in conjunction with spark detection and automated shutdown circuit. The breakdown voltage is sensed using a peak detector circuit. The voltage breakdown data is recorded and statistical distribution of the breakdown voltage has been analyzed. This paper describes details of the diagnostics and the spark gap qualification process based on the experimental data. (author)

Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

2002-01-01

Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

Evaluation of Gap Conductance Approach for Mid-Burnup Fuel LOCA Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Joosuk; Woo, Swengwoong

2013-01-01

In this study, therefore, the applicability of gap conductance approach on the mid-burnup fuel in LOCA analysis was estimated in terms of the comparison of PCT distribution method means the fuel rod uncertainty is taken into account by the combination of overall uncertainty parameters of fuel rod altogether by use of a simple random sampling(SRS) technique. There are many uncertainty parameters of fuel rod that can change the PCT during LOCA analysis, and these have been identified by the authors' previous work already. But, for the 'best-estimate' LOCA safety analysis the methodology that dose not use the overall uncertainty parameters altogether but used the gap conductance uncertainty alone has been developed to simulate the overall fuel rod uncertainty, because it can represent many uncertainty parameters. Based on this approach, uncertainty range of gap conductance was prescribed as 0.67∼1.5 in audit calculation methodology on LBLOCA analysis. This uncertainty was derived from experimental data of fresh or low burnup fuel. Meanwhile, recent research work identify that the currently utilized uncertainty range seems to be not enough to encompass the uncertainty of mid-burnup fuel. Instead it has to be changed to 0.5∼2.4 for the mid-burnup fuel(30 MWd/kgU)

Evaluation of Gap Conductance Approach for Mid-Burnup Fuel LOCA Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joosuk; Woo, Swengwoong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

In this study, therefore, the applicability of gap conductance approach on the mid-burnup fuel in LOCA analysis was estimated in terms of the comparison of PCT distribution method means the fuel rod uncertainty is taken into account by the combination of overall uncertainty parameters of fuel rod altogether by use of a simple random sampling(SRS) technique. There are many uncertainty parameters of fuel rod that can change the PCT during LOCA analysis, and these have been identified by the authors' previous work already. But, for the 'best-estimate' LOCA safety analysis the methodology that dose not use the overall uncertainty parameters altogether but used the gap conductance uncertainty alone has been developed to simulate the overall fuel rod uncertainty, because it can represent many uncertainty parameters. Based on this approach, uncertainty range of gap conductance was prescribed as 0.67∼1.5 in audit calculation methodology on LBLOCA analysis. This uncertainty was derived from experimental data of fresh or low burnup fuel. Meanwhile, recent research work identify that the currently utilized uncertainty range seems to be not enough to encompass the uncertainty of mid-burnup fuel. Instead it has to be changed to 0.5∼2.4 for the mid-burnup fuel(30 MWd/kgU)

Minding the Cyber-Physical Gap: Model-Based Analysis and Mitigation of Systemic Perception-Induced Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaniv Mordecai

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The cyber-physical gap (CPG is the difference between the ‘real’ state of the world and the way the system perceives it. This discrepancy often stems from the limitations of sensing and data collection technologies and capabilities, and is inevitable at some degree in any cyber-physical system (CPS. Ignoring or misrepresenting such limitations during system modeling, specification, design, and analysis can potentially result in systemic misconceptions, disrupted functionality and performance, system failure, severe damage, and potential detrimental impacts on the system and its environment. We propose CPG-Aware Modeling & Engineering (CPGAME, a conceptual model-based approach to capturing, explaining, and mitigating the CPG. CPGAME enhances the systems engineer’s ability to cope with CPGs, mitigate them by design, and prevent erroneous decisions and actions. We demonstrate CPGAME by applying it for modeling and analysis of the 1979 Three Miles Island 2 nuclear accident, and show how its meltdown could be mitigated. We use ISO-19450:2015—Object Process Methodology as our conceptual modeling framework.

A gap analysis of meteorological requirements for commercial space operators

Science.gov (United States)

Stapleton, Nicholas James

Commercial space companies will soon be the primary method of launching people and supplies into orbit. Among the critical aspects of space launches are the meteorological concerns. Laws and regulations pertaining to meteorological considerations have been created to ensure the safety of the space industry and those living around spaceports; but, are they adequate? Perhaps the commercial space industry can turn to the commercial aviation industry to help answer that question. Throughout its history, the aviation industry has dealt with lessons learned from mishaps due to failures in understanding the significance of weather impacts on operations. Using lessons from the aviation industry, the commercial space industry can preempt such accidents and maintain viability as an industry. Using Lanicci's Strategic Planning Model, this study identified the weather needs of the commercial space industry by conducting three gap analyses. First, a comparative analysis was done between laws and regulations in commercial aviation and those in the commercial space industry pertaining to meteorological support, finding a "legislative gap" between the two industries, as no legal guarantee is in place to ensure weather products remain available to the commercial space industry. A second analysis was conducted between the meteorological services provided for the commercial aviation industry and commercial space industry, finding a gap at facilities not located at an established launch facility or airport. At such facilities, many weather observational technologies would not be present, and would need to be purchased by the company operating the spaceport facility. A third analysis was conducted between the meteorological products and regulations that are currently in existence, and those needed for safe operations within the commercial space industry, finding gaps in predicting lightning, electric field charge, and space weather. Recommendations to address these deficiencies have

Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

2010-07-01

It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

1994-01-01

Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

Hydrogen Safety Sensor Performance and Use Gap Analysis: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buttner, William J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Burgess, Robert M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Schmidt, Kara [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hartmann, Kevin S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wright, Hannah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weidner, Eveline [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Cebolla, Rafael O. [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Bonato, Christian [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands; Moretto, Pietro [Joint Research Centre, Petten, the Netherlands

2017-11-15

Hydrogen sensors are recognized as an important technology for facilitating the safe implementation of hydrogen as an alternative fuel, and there are numerous reports of a sensor alarm successfully preventing a potentially serious event. However, gaps in sensor metrological specifications, as well as in their performance for some applications, exist.The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Fuel Cell Technology Office published a short list of critical gaps in the 2007 and 2012 multiyear project plans; more detailed gap analyses were independently performed by the JRC and NREL. There have been, however, some significant advances in sensor technologies since these assessments, including the commercial availability of hydrogen sensors with fast response times (t90 less than 1 s, which had been an elusive DOE target since 2007), improved robustness to chemical poisons, improved selectivity, and improved lifetime and stability. These improvements, however, have not been universal and typically pertain to select platforms or models. Moreover, as hydrogen markets grow and new applications are being explored, more demands will be imposed on sensor performance. The hydrogen sensor laboratories at NREL and JRC are currently updating the hydrogen safety sensor gap analysis through direct interaction with international stakeholders in the hydrogen community, especially end-users. NREL and the JRC are currently organizing a series of workshops (in Europe and the U.S.) with sensor developers, end-users, and other stakeholders in 2017 to identify technology gaps and to develop a path forward to address them. One workshop is scheduled for May 10 in Brussels, Belgium at the Headquarters of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking. A second workshop is planned at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, CO, USA. This presentation will review improvements in sensor technologies in the past 5 to 10 years, identify gaps in sensor performance and use requirements, and identify

Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.

1991-09-01

During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

Tire Crumb Research Study Literature Review / Gap AnalysisWhite Paper Summary of Results

Science.gov (United States)

In order to more fully understand data gaps in human exposure and toxicity to tire crumb materials, ATSDR, CPSC and EPA undertook a collaborative effort in the form of a scientific literature review and subsequent gaps analysis. The first objective of the Literature Review and Ga...

Gap Analysis Approach for Construction Safety Program Improvement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanet Aksorn

2007-06-01

Full Text Available To improve construction site safety, emphasis has been placed on the implementation of safety programs. In order to successfully gain from safety programs, factors that affect their improvement need to be studied. Sixteen critical success factors of safety programs were identified from safety literature, and these were validated by safety experts. This study was undertaken by surveying 70 respondents from medium- and large-scale construction projects. It explored the importance and the actual status of critical success factors (CSFs. Gap analysis was used to examine the differences between the importance of these CSFs and their actual status. This study found that the most critical problems characterized by the largest gaps were management support, appropriate supervision, sufficient resource allocation, teamwork, and effective enforcement. Raising these priority factors to satisfactory levels would lead to successful safety programs, thereby minimizing accidents.

Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

1998-01-01

Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

Thermal protection system gap analysis using a loosely coupled fluid-structural thermal numerical method

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jie; Li, Piao; Yao, Weixing

2018-05-01

A loosely coupled fluid-structural thermal numerical method is introduced for the thermal protection system (TPS) gap thermal control analysis in this paper. The aerodynamic heating and structural thermal are analyzed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and numerical heat transfer (NHT) methods respectively. An interpolation algorithm based on the control surface is adopted for the data exchanges on the coupled surface. In order to verify the analysis precision of the loosely coupled method, a circular tube example was analyzed, and the wall temperature agrees well with the test result. TPS gap thermal control performance was studied by the loosely coupled method successfully. The gap heat flux is mainly distributed in the small region at the top of the gap which is the high temperature region. Besides, TPS gap temperature and the power of the active cooling system (CCS) calculated by the traditional uncoupled method are higher than that calculated by the coupled method obviously. The reason is that the uncoupled method doesn't consider the coupled effect between the aerodynamic heating and structural thermal, however the coupled method considers it, so TPS gap thermal control performance can be analyzed more accurately by the coupled method.

WHO Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) Intervention Guide: a systematic review of evidence from low and middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Keynejad, Roxanne C; Dua, Tarun; Barbui, Corrado; Thornicroft, Graham

2018-02-01

Despite mental, neurological and substance use (MNS) disorders being highly prevalent, there is a worldwide gap between service need and provision. WHO launched its Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) in 2008, and the Intervention Guide (mhGAP-IG) in 2010. mhGAP-IG provides evidence-based guidance and tools for assessment and integrated management of priority MNS disorders in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), using clinical decision-making protocols. It targets a non-specialised primary healthcare audience, but has also been used by ministries, non-governmental organisations and academics, for mental health service scale-up in 90 countries. This review aimed to identify evidence to date for mhGAP-IG implementation in LMICs. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Knowledge/Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, LILACS, SciELO/Web of Science, Cochrane, Pubmed databases and Google Scholar for studies reporting evidence, experience or evaluation of mhGAP-IG in LMICs, in any language. Data were extracted from included papers, but heterogeneity prevented meta-analysis. We conducted a systematic review of evidence to date, of mhGAP-IG implementation and evaluation in LMICs. Thirty-three included studies reported 15 training courses, 9 clinical implementations, 3 country contextualisations, 3 economic models, 2 uses as control interventions and 1 use to develop a rating scale. Our review identified the importance of detailed reports of contextual challenges in the field, alongside detailed protocols, qualitative studies and randomised controlled trials. The mhGAP-IG literature is substantial, relative to other published evaluations of clinical practice guidelines: an important contribution to a neglected field. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Dual conception of risk in the Iowa Gambling Task: Effects of sleep deprivation and test-retest gap

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Varsha eSingh

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Risk in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is often understood in terms of intertemporal choices, i.e., preference for immediate outcomes in favor of delayed outcomes is considered risky. According to behavioral economics, decision makers refrain from choosing the short-sighted immediate gain because, over time (10 trials, the immediate gains result in a net loss. Instead decision makers are expected to maximize their gains by choosing options that, over time (10 trials, result in net gain. However, task choices are sometimes made on the basis of the frequency of reward and punishment such that infrequent punishments are favored over frequent punishments. The presence of these two attributes (intertemporality and frequency may correspond to the emotion-cognition dichotomy and reflect a dual conception of risk. Decision making on the basis of the two attributes was tested under two conditions: test-retest gap and sleep deprivation. An interaction between these two was expected to attenuate the difference between the two attributes (n=40 male. Analysis of the effects of IGT attribute type (intertemporal vs. frequency, sleep deprivation (sleep deprivation vs. no sleep deprivation, and test-retest gap (short vs. long showed a significant effect of IGT attribute type thus confirming the difference between the two attributes. Sleep deprivation had no effect on the attributes, but test-retest gap and the three-way interaction between attribute type, test-retest gap, and sleep deprivation were significant. Post-hoc tests showed sleep deprivation and short test-retest gap to attenuate the difference between the two attributes. As expected intertemporal decision making benefited from repeated task exposure. The findings add to understanding of the emotion-cognition dichotomy and show a time-dependent effect of a universally experienced constraint (sleep deprivation.

Demographic characteristics in patients with short-gap and long-gap ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Further analysis of this topic is warranted ... Keywords: demographic characteristics, long-gap esophageal atresia, short-gap ... Thus, we conducted the present study to analyze the character- ..... this issue, providing fundamental information.

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Bernknopf, R.L.

2005-01-01

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

Vertical hydraulic generators experience with dynamic air gap monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollock, G.B.; Lyles, J.F.

1992-01-01

Until recently, dynamic monitoring of the rotor to stator air gap of hydraulic generators was not practical. Cost effective and reliable dyamic air gap monitoring equipment has been developed in recent years. Dynamic air gap monitoring was originally justified because of the desire of the owner to minimize the effects of catastrophic air gap failure. However, monitoring air gaps on a time basis has been shown to be beneficial by assisting in the assessment of hydraulic generator condition. The air gap monitor provides useful information on rotor and stator condition and generator vibration. The data generated by air gap monitors will assist managers in the decision process with respect to the timing and extent of required maintenance for a particular generating unit

Yield gap analysis of Chickpea under semi-arid conditions: A simulation study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

seyed Reza Amiri Deh ahmadi

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield was 1026 kg ha-1 indicating a 54% reduction in yield due to adverse soil moisture conditions. Also, the average irrigated and rainfed actual yields were respectively 64% and 79% less than simulated potential and water limited yields. Maximum and minimum yield gap between potential yield and actual yield were observed in Quchan and Torbat-jam respectively. Generally, yield gap showed an increasing trend from the north (including Nishabur, Mashhad, Quchan and Daregaz regions to the south of the province (Torbat- Jam and Gonabad. In addition, yield gap between simulated water limited potential yield and rainfed actual yield were very low because both simulated water limiting potential and average rainfed actual yields were low in these regions. Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield was 1026 kg ha-1 indicating a 54% reduction in yield due to adverse soil moisture conditions. Also, the average irrigated and rainfed actual yields were respectively 64% and 79% less than simulated potential and water limited yields

DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

Science.gov (United States)

This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

1991-01-01

An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

Knowledge-Base Semantic Gap Analysis for the Vulnerability Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Raymond; Seki, Keisuke; Sakamoto, Ryusuke; Hisada, Masayuki

Web security became an alert in internet computing. To cope with ever-rising security complexity, semantic analysis is proposed to fill-in the gap that the current approaches fail to commit. Conventional methods limit their focus to the physical source codes instead of the abstraction of semantics. It bypasses new types of vulnerability and causes tremendous business loss.

Using yield gap analysis to give sustainable intensification local meaning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Silva, João Vasco

2017-01-01

Yield gap analysis is useful to understand the relative contribution of growth-defining, -limiting and -reducing factors to actual yields. This is traditionally performed at the field level using mechanistic crop growth simulation models, and directly up-scaled to the regional and global levels

A gap analysis of the South African innovation system for water ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A gap analysis of the South African innovation system for water. ... Two major approaches to science and innovation from the innovation systems ... infrastructure and data sharing; reorganising the research environment within universities; ...

Development of Multidimensional Gap Conductance model using Virtual Link Gap Element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyo Chan; Yang, Yong Sik; Kim, Dae Ho; Bang, Je Geon; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

The gap conductance that determines temperature gradient between pellet and cladding can be quite sensitive to gap thickness. For instance, once the gap size increases up to several micrometers in certain region, difference of pellet surface temperatures increases up to 100 Kelvin. Therefore, iterative thermo-mechanical coupled analysis is required to solve temperature distribution throughout pellet and cladding. Recently, multidimensional fuel performance codes have been being developed in the advanced countries to evaluate thermal behavior of fuel for off normal conditions and DBA(design based accident) conditions using the Finite Element Method (FEM). FRAPCON-FRAPTRAN code system, which is well known as the verified and reliable code, incorporates 1D thermal module and multidimensional mechanical module. In this code, multidimensional gap conductance model is not applied. ALCYONE developed by CEA introduces equivalent heat convection coefficient that represents multidimensional gap conductance as a function of gap thickness. BISON, which is multidimensional fuel performance code developed by INL, owns multidimensional gap conductance model using projected thermal contact. In general, thermal contact algorithm is nonlinear calculation which is expensive approach numerically. The gap conductance model for multi-dimension is difficult issue in terms of convergence and nonlinearity because gap conductance is function of gap thickness which depends on mechanical analysis at each iteration step. In this paper, virtual link gap (VLG) element has been proposed to resolve convergence issue and nonlinear characteristic of multidimensional gap conductance. In terms of calculation accuracy and convergence efficiency, the proposed VLG model was evaluated. LWR fuel performance codes should incorporate thermo-mechanical loop to solve gap conductance problem, iteratively. However, gap conductance in multidimensional model is difficult issue owing to its nonlinearity and

Yield gap analysis of Chickpea under semi-arid conditions: A simulation study

OpenAIRE

seyed Reza Amiri Deh ahmadi; mehdi parsa; mohammad bannayan aval; mahdi nassiri mahallati

2016-01-01

Yield gap analysis provides an essential framework to prioritize research and policy efforts aimed at reducing yield constraints. To identify options for increasing chickpea yield, the SSM-chickpea model was parameterized and evaluated to analyze yield potentials, water limited yields and yield gaps for nine regions representing major chickpea-growing areas of Razavi Khorasan province. The average potential yield of chickpea for the locations was 2251 kg ha-1, while the water limited yield wa...

ADMS State of the Industry and Gap Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agalgaonkar, Yashodhan P.; Marinovici, Maria C.; Vadari, Subramanian V.; Schneider, Kevin P.; Melton, Ronald B.

2016-03-31

An Advanced distribution management system (ADMS) is a platform for optimized distribution system operational management. This platform comprises of distribution management system (DMS) applications, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), outage management system (OMS), and distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). One of the primary objectives of this work is to study and analyze several ADMS component and auxiliary systems. All the important component and auxiliary systems, SCADA, GISs, DMSs, AMRs/AMIs, OMSs, and DERMS, are discussed in this report. Their current generation technologies are analyzed, and their integration (or evolution) with an ADMS technology is discussed. An ADMS technology state of the art and gap analysis is also presented. There are two technical gaps observed. The integration challenge between the component operational systems is the single largest challenge for ADMS design and deployment. Another significant challenge noted is concerning essential ADMS applications, for instance, fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR), volt-var optimization (VVO), etc. There are a relatively small number of ADMS application developers as ADMS software platform is not open source. There is another critical gap and while not being technical in nature (when compared the two above) is still important to consider. The data models currently residing in utility GIS systems are either incomplete or inaccurate or both. This data is essential for planning and operations because it is typically one of the primary sources from which power system model are created. To achieve the full potential of ADMS, the ability to execute acute Power Flow solution is an important pre-requisite. These critical gaps are hindering wider Utility adoption of an ADMS technology. The development of an open architecture platform can eliminate many of these barriers and also aid seamless integration of distribution Utility legacy systems with an

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that an Exploratory Studied Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical characterization decision because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing an constrains subsequent repository design. To assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative ESF-repository designs. The evaluation relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and enabled the Department of Energy to adopt an improved ESF design

an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

p2333147

Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

The Use of Gap Analysis to Increase Student Completion Rates at Travelor Adult School

Science.gov (United States)

Gil, Blanca Estela

2013-01-01

This project applied the gap analysis problem-solving framework (Clark & Estes, 2008) in order to help develop strategies to increase completion rates at Travelor Adult School. The purpose of the study was to identify whether the knowledge, motivation and organization barriers were contributing to the identified gap. A mixed method approached…

Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

Science.gov (United States)

Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

2011-06-01

Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

2014-2015 Partnership accomplishments report on joint activities: National Gap Analysis Program and LANDFIRE

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Anne; McKerrow, Alexa; Long, Don; Earnhardt, Todd

2015-01-01

The intended target audience for this document initially is management and project technical specialist and scientists involved in the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - (LANDFIRE) program to help communicate coordination activities to all involved parties. This document is also intended to give background information in other parts of the USGS and beyond, although some details given are relatively oriented to management of the respective programs. Because the Gap Analysis Program (GAP) and the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools - LANDFIRE programs both rely on characterizations of land cover using similar scales and resolutions, the programs have been coordinating their work to improve scientific consistency and efficiency of production. Initial discussions and informal sharing of ideas and work began in 2008. Although this collaboration was fruitful, there was no formal process for reporting results, plans, or outstanding issues, nor was there any formally-defined coordinated management team that spanned the two programs. In 2012, leadership from the two programs agreed to strengthen the coordination of their respective work efforts. In 2013 the GAP and LANDFIRE programs developed an umbrella plan of objectives and components related to three mutual focus areas for the GAP and LANDFIRE collaboration for the years 2013 and 2014 (GAP/LANDFIRE 2013). The evolution of this partnership resulted in the drafting of an inter-program Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in 2014. This MOU identified three coordination topics relevant to the two programs participating at this point in the MOU history: Vegetation mappingDisturbance classesFormal quality assessment

Dual conception of risk in the Iowa Gambling Task: effects of sleep deprivation and test-retest gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Varsha

2013-01-01

Risk in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is often understood in terms of intertemporal choices, i.e., preference for immediate outcomes in favor of delayed outcomes is considered risky decision making. According to behavioral economics, healthy decision makers are expected to refrain from choosing the short-sighted immediate gain because, over time (10 trials of the IGT), the immediate gains result in a long term loss (net loss). Instead decision makers are expected to maximize their gains by choosing options that, over time (10 trials), result in delayed or long term gains (net gain). However, task choices are sometimes made on the basis of the frequency of reward and punishment such that frequent rewards/infrequent punishments are favored over infrequent rewards/frequent punishments. The presence of these two attributes (intertemporality and frequency of reward) in IGT decision making may correspond to the emotion-cognition dichotomy and reflect a dual conception of risk. Decision making on the basis of the two attributes was tested under two conditions: delay in retest and sleep deprivation. An interaction between sleep deprivation and time delay was expected to attenuate the difference between the two attributes. Participants were 40 male university students. Analysis of the effects of IGT attribute type (intertemporal vs. frequency of reinforcement), sleep deprivation (sleep deprivation vs. no sleep deprivation), and test-retest gap (short vs. long delay) showed a significant within-subjects effect of IGT attribute type thus confirming the difference between the two attributes. Sleep deprivation had no effect on the attributes, but test-retest gap and the three-way interaction between attribute type, test-retest gap, and sleep deprivation were significantly different. Post-hoc tests revealed that sleep deprivation and short test-retest gap attenuated the difference between the two attributes. Furthermore, the results showed an expected trend of increase in

Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

CERN Document Server

Criminisi, A

2013-01-01

This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.; Ellison, Paul B.; Francis, M.; Gabor, John D.; Gauntt, R.; Henry, C.; Linthicum, R.; Luangdilok, W.; Lutz, R.; Paik, C.; Plys, M.; Rabiti, Cristian; Rempe, J.; Robb, K.; Wachowiak, R.

2015-01-01

The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farmer, Mitchell T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bunt, R. [Southern Nuclear, Atlanta, GA (United States); Corradini, M. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul B. [GE Power and Water, Duluth, GA (United States); Francis, M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gabor, John D. [Erin Engineering, Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Gauntt, R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Henry, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Linthicum, R. [Exelon Corp., Chicago, IL (United States); Luangdilok, W. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Lutz, R. [PWR Owners Group (PWROG); Paik, C. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Plys, M. [Fauske and Associates, Burr Ridge, IL (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rempe, J. [Rempe and Associates LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Robb, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wachowiak, R. [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knovville, TN (United States)

2015-01-31

The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affect reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GAPS BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL ROMANIAN AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toader Valentin

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper the authors will perform a comparative analysis of the impact that the population residential areas have on the economic and social activity from Romania. Our analysis will be carried out for a time span of 10 years, between 2000 and 2009. The main purposes are to emphasize the economic gaps between the residential areas (urban and rural and to identify the factors that determine these gaps. The economic differences between rural and urban areas and their impact on the peoples standard of living represent an important issue for international institutions like IFRC, UNICEF or OECD. Also, this topic represents a frequent subject in the economic literature from poor and developing countries. Studies conducted by Huong and Booth (2010, Alister, Alana and Ayele (2007, Chao, Zhidong and Mingxing (2008, Mateoc-Srb, Mateoc, Darva?i and Manescu (2008 or Sahn and Stifel (2002 are representative examples. Most of these papers focus on the living standards differences generated by the differences between income and expenditures between urban and rural areas. To achieve our goals, we will use the statistical methods to analyze the data released by the National Institute of Statistics. We will try to find some correlations between the economic indicators household incomes, value and structure of household expenditures, structure of household expenditures the social indicators residential area, education level, age and occupation. The highlight of the gaps between the rural and urban areas will be the main objective during this analysis. We conclude that in Romania there are substantial differences between rural and urban areas. The income differences are determining different consumption patterns between rural and urban persons. In rural areas, the population is spending less in all goods and services aspect that reduce their standard of living. Anyway, the results obtained are the subject of at least two possible limits. The fact that the data

Digital Architecture – Results From a Gap Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oxstrand, Johanna Helene [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thomas, Kenneth David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fitzgerald, Kirk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The digital architecture is defined as a collection of IT capabilities needed to support and integrate a wide-spectrum of real-time digital capabilities for nuclear power plant performance improvements. The digital architecture can be thought of as an integration of the separate I&C and information systems already in place in NPPs, brought together for the purpose of creating new levels of automation in NPP work activities. In some cases, it might be an extension of the current communication systems, to provide digital communications where they are currently analog only. This collection of IT capabilities must in turn be based on a set of user requirements that must be supported for the interconnected technologies to operate in an integrated manner. These requirements, simply put, are a statement of what sorts of digital work functions will be exercised in a fully-implemented seamless digital environment and how much they will be used. The goal of the digital architecture research is to develop a methodology for mapping nuclear power plant operational and support activities into the digital architecture, which includes the development of a consensus model for advanced information and control architecture. The consensus model should be developed at a level of detail that is useful to the industry. In other words, not so detailed that it specifies specific protocols and not so vague that it is only provides a high level description of technology. The next step towards the model development is to determine the current state of digital architecture at typical NPPs. To investigate the current state, the researchers conducted a gap analysis to determine to what extent the NPPs can support the future digital technology environment with their existing I&C and IT structure, and where gaps exist with respect to the full deployment of technology over time. The methodology, result, and conclusions from the gap analysis are described in this report.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volodymyr Kharchenko

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Proteome analysis of a Lactococcus lactis strain overexpressing gapA suggests that the gene product is an auxiliary glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willemoes, Martin; Kilstrup, Mogens; Roepstorff, P.

2002-01-01

revealed two neighbouring protein spots, GapBI and GapBII, with amino terminal sequences identical to the product of gapA from the L. lactis subspecies cremoris strain LM0230 and that of the two IL1403 sequences. In order to assign the two protein spots to their respective genes we constructed an L. lactis...... was specific for NAD. No NADP dependent activity was detected. Proteome analysis of the gapA overexpressing strain revealed two new protein spots, GapAI and GapAII, not previously detected in proteome analysis of MG1363. Results from mass spectrometry analysis of GapA and GapB and comparison with the deduced......The sequence of the genome from the Lactococcus lactis subspecies lactis strain IL1403 shows the presence of two reading frames, gapA and gapB, putatively encoding glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH). Previous proteomic analysis of the L. lactis subspecies cremoris strain MG1363 has...

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

The Knowledge Gap Versus the Belief Gap and Abstinence-Only Sex Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Hindman, Douglas Blanks; Yan, Changmin

2015-08-01

The knowledge gap hypothesis predicts widening disparities in knowledge of heavily publicized public affairs issues among socioeconomic status groups. The belief gap hypothesis extends the knowledge gap hypothesis to account for knowledge and beliefs about politically contested issues based on empirically verifiable information. This analysis of 3 national surveys shows belief gaps developed between liberals and conservatives regarding abstinence-only sex education; socioeconomic status-based knowledge gaps did not widen. The findings partially support both belief gap and knowledge gap hypotheses. In addition, the unique contributions of exposure to Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC in this process were investigated. Only exposure to Fox News was linked to beliefs about abstinence-only sex education directly and indirectly through the cultivation of conservative ideology.

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischhoff, Baruch

2010-09-01

The study of judgment and decision making entails three interrelated forms of research: (1) normative analysis, identifying the best courses of action, given decision makers' values; (2) descriptive studies, examining actual behavior in terms comparable to the normative analyses; and (3) prescriptive interventions, helping individuals to make better choices, bridging the gap between the normative ideal and the descriptive reality. The research is grounded in analytical foundations shared by economics, psychology, philosophy, and management science. Those foundations provide a framework for accommodating affective and social factors that shape and complement the cognitive processes of decision making. The decision sciences have grown through applications requiring collaboration with subject matter experts, familiar with the substance of the choices and the opportunities for interventions. Over the past half century, the field has shifted its emphasis from predicting choices, which can be successful without theoretical insight, to understanding the processes shaping them. Those processes are often revealed through biases that suggest non-normative processes. The practical importance of these biases depends on the sensitivity of specific decisions and the support that individuals have in making them. As a result, the field offers no simple summary of individuals' competence as decision makers, but a suite of theories and methods suited to capturing these sensitivities. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social modulation of decision-making: a cross-species review

Science.gov (United States)

van den Bos, Ruud; Jolles, Jolle W.; Homberg, Judith R.

2013-01-01

Taking decisions plays a pivotal role in daily life and comprises a complex process of assessing and weighing short-term and long-term costs and benefits of competing actions. Decision-making has been shown to be affected by factors such as sex, age, genotype, and personality. Importantly, also the social environment affects decisions, both via social interactions (e.g., social learning, cooperation and competition) and social stress effects. Although everyone is aware of this social modulating role on daily life decisions, this has thus far only scarcely been investigated in human and animal studies. Furthermore, neuroscientific studies rarely discuss social influence on decision-making from a functional perspective such as done in behavioral ecology studies. Therefore, the first aim of this article is to review the available data of the influence of the social context on decision-making both from a causal and functional perspective, drawing on animal and human studies. Also, there is currently still a gap between decision-making in real life where influences of the social environment are extensive, and decision-making as measured in the laboratory, which is often done without any (deliberate) social influences. However, methods are being developed to bridge this gap. Therefore, the second aim of this review is to discuss these methods and ways in which this gap can be increasingly narrowed. We end this review by formulating future research questions. PMID:23805092

The unequal distribution of unequal pay - An empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Dorothe Bonjour; Michael Gerfin

2001-01-01

In this paper we analyze the distribution of the gender wage gap. Using microdata for Switzerland we estimate conditional wage distribution functions and find that the total wage gap and its discrimination component are not constant over the range of wages. At low wages an overproportional part of the wage gap is due to discrimination. In a further analysis of specific individuals we examine the wage gap at different quantiles and propose a new measure to assess equal earnings opportunities. ...

Faulty judgment, expert opinion, and decision-making capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Silberfeld, M; Checkland, D

1999-08-01

An assessment of decision-making capacity is the accepted procedure for determining when a person is not competent. An inferential gap exists between the criteria for capacity specific abilities and the legal requirements to understand relevant information and appreciate the consequences of a decision. This gap extends to causal influences on a person's capacity to decide. Using a published case of depression, we illustrate that assessors' uses of diagnostic information is frequently not up to the task of bridging this inferential gap in a justifiable way. We then describe cases of faulty judgement which challenge the understanding of diagnostic causal influences. These cases help to clarify the nature of the expertise required for capacity assessments. In practice, the requirements of decision-making capacity are often abandoned to other considerations due to a lack of requisite expertise. The legal policy supporting decision-making capacity as a means to protective intervention is justified only if the requisite expertise is developed. We propose the requisite expertise to be developed in the long term as a distinct multidisciplinary endeavour.

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Grigoli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orechwa, Y.

2004-01-01

In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

2017-12-01

The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

Gap analysis of the European Earth Observation Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Closa, Guillem; Serral, Ivette; Maso, Joan

2016-04-01

Earth Observations (EO) are fundamental to enhance the scientific understanding of the current status of the Earth. Nowadays, there are a lot of EO services that provide large volume of data, and the number of datasets available for different geosciences areas is increasing by the day. Despite this coverage, a glance of the European EO networks reveals that there are still some issues that are not being met; some gaps in specific themes or some thematic overlaps between different networks. This situation requires a clarification process of the actual status of the EO European networks in order to set priorities and propose future actions that will improve the European EO networks. The aim of this work is to detect the existing gaps and overlapping problems among the European EO networks. The analytical process has been done by studying the availability and the completeness of the Essential Variables (EV) data captured by the European EO networks. The concept of EVs considers that there are a number of parameters that are essential to characterize the state and trends of a system without losing significant information. This work generated a database of the existing gaps in the European EO network based on the initial GAIA-CLIM project data structure. For each theme the missing or incomplete data about each EV was indentified. Then, if incomplete, the gap was described by adding its type (geographical extent, vertical extent, temporal extent, spatial resolution, etc), the cost, the remedy, the feasibility, the impact and the priority, among others. Gaps in EO are identified following the ConnectinGEO methodology structured in 5 threads; identification of observation requirements, incorporation of international research programs material, consultation process within the current EO actors, GEOSS Discovery and Access Broker analysis, and industry-driven challenges implementation. Concretely, the presented work focuses on the second thread, which is based on

PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

2018-01-01

Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

Spin Orbit Coupling Gap and Indirect Gap in Strain-Tuned Topological Insulator-Antimonene

OpenAIRE

Cheung, Chi-Ho; Fuh, Huei-Ru; Hsu, Ming-Chien; Lin, Yeu-Chung; Chang, Ching-Ray

2016-01-01

Recently, searching large-bulk band gap topological insulator (TI) is under intensive study. Through k?P theory and first-principles calculations analysis on antimonene, we find that ?-phase antimonene can be tuned to a 2D TI under an in-plane anisotropic strain and the magnitude of direct bulk band gap (SOC gap) depends on the strength of spin-orbit coupling (SOC) which is strain-dependent. As the band inversion of this TI accompanies with an indirect band gap, the TI bulk band gap is the in...

Decision Analysis on Survey and SOil Investigation Problem in Power Engineering Consultant

OpenAIRE

Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos

2013-01-01

The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...

Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

Science.gov (United States)

Nease, R F

1996-01-01

Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

Approximate reasoning in decision analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, M M; Sanchez, E

1982-01-01

The volume aims to incorporate the recent advances in both theory and applications. It contains 44 articles by 74 contributors from 17 different countries. The topics considered include: membership functions; composite fuzzy relations; fuzzy logic and inference; classifications and similarity measures; expert systems and medical diagnosis; psychological measurements and human behaviour; approximate reasoning and decision analysis; and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

2000-01-01

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Gap analysis of industrial energy management systems in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pusnik, Matevz; Al-Mansour, Fouad; Sucic, Boris; Gubina, A.F.

2016-01-01

Industrial energy management systems, which comprise software solutions, upfront services, and ongoing monitoring and management, enable industrial companies to actively manage their energy consumption and energy procurement activities. Energy management systems are usually tailored to the specific industrial needs but may offer limited functionalities, mostly as a result of different identified gaps (process simplifications, improper measurement points, a lack of motivation, etc.). A survey was conducted in order to analyse the gaps and use of energy management systems in Slovenian industry. The results of the survey presented in this paper demonstrate that the use of energy management systems in industry is recognised as a potential competitive advantage by most of the addressed companies. Furthermore, motivation was highlighted as an important prerequisite for process and structural improvements and reported to be thus far insufficiently addressed. Furthermore, the importance of strong cooperation with actors at different levels of industry, namely the executive and shop floor levels, is addressed. In the conclusion, possibilities for new opportunities in the exploitation of energy efficiency through the use of industrial energy management systems are discussed. - Highlights: • Investigating gaps and evaluation of EMS use in Slovenian industry. • Analysis based on the developed self-assessment tool 3EMT. • Existing EMS do not include all the requirements for the industrial operations. • Constructive cooperation between all stakeholders is of crucial importance.

Ontology based decision system for breast cancer diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Trabelsi Ben Ameur, Soumaya; Cloppet, Florence; Wendling, Laurent; Sellami, Dorra

2018-04-01

In this paper, we focus on analysis and diagnosis of breast masses inspired by expert concepts and rules. Accordingly, a Bag of Words is built based on the ontology of breast cancer diagnosis, accurately described in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. To fill the gap between low level knowledge and expert concepts, a semantic annotation is developed using a machine learning tool. Then, breast masses are classified into benign or malignant according to expert rules implicitly modeled with a set of classifiers (KNN, ANN, SVM and Decision Tree). This semantic context of analysis offers a frame where we can include external factors and other meta-knowledge such as patient risk factors as well as exploiting more than one modality. Based on MRI and DECEDM modalities, our developed system leads a recognition rate of 99.7% with Decision Tree where an improvement of 24.7 % is obtained owing to semantic analysis.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

Public perceptions and information gaps in solar energy in Texas

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Varun; Beck, Ariane L.

2015-07-01

Studying the behavioral aspects of the individual decision-making process is important in identifying and addressing barriers in the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic (PV). However, there is little systematic research focusing on these aspects of residential PV in Texas, an important, large, populous state, with a range of challenges in the electricity sector including increasing demand, shrinking reserve margins, constrained water supply, and challenging emissions reduction targets under proposed federal regulations. This paper aims to address this gap through an empirical investigation of a new survey-based dataset collected in Texas on solar energy perceptions and behavior. The results of this analysis offer insights into the perceptions and motivations influencing intentions and behavior toward solar energy in a relatively untapped market and help identify information gaps that could be targeted to alleviate key barriers to adopting solar, thereby enabling significant emissions reductions in the residential sector in Texas.

Theoretical analysis of gold nano-strip gap plasmon resonators

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soendergaard, T; Jung, J; Bozhevolnyi, S I; Della Valle, G [Department of Physics and Nanotechnology, Aalborg University, Skjernvej 4A, DK-9220 Aalborg Oest (Denmark)], E-mail: ts@nano.aau.dk

2008-10-15

Gold gap plasmon resonators consisting of two nm-thin and sub-micron-wide gold strips separated by a nm-thin air or quartz gap are considered. Scattering resonances and resonant fields are related to a model of resonances being due to counter-propagating gap plasmon polaritons forming standing waves. A small gap ({approx}10 nm) is found to result in small resonance peaks in scattering spectra but large electric field magnitude enhancement ({approx}20), whereas a large gap ({approx}100 nm) is found to result in more pronounced scattering peaks but smaller field enhancement. Design curves are presented that allow construction of gap plasmon resonators with any desired resonance wavelength in the range from the visible to the infrared, including telecom wavelengths. The relation between resonance wavelength and resonator width is close to being linear. The field magnitude enhancement mid between the gold strips is systematically investigated versus gap size and wavelength.

Gap Surface Plasmon Waveguide Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Grøndahl; Bozhevolnyi, Sergey I.

2014-01-01

Plasmonic waveguides supporting gap surface plasmons (GSPs) localized in a dielectric spacer between metal films are investigated numerically and the waveguiding properties at telecommunication wavelengths are presented. Especially, we emphasize that the mode confinement can advantageously...

Social modulation of decision-making: a cross-species review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruud eVan Den Bos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Taking decisions plays a pivotal role in daily life and comprises a complex process of assessing and weighing short-term and long-term costs and benefits of competing actions. Decision-making has been shown to be affected by factors such as sex, age, genotype and personality. Importantly, also the social environment affects decisions, both via social interactions (e.g. social learning, cooperation and competition and social stress effects. Although everyone is aware of this social modulating role on daily life decisions, this has thus far only scarcely been investigated in human and animal studies. Furthermore, neuroscientific studies rarely discuss social influence on decision-making from a functional perspective such as done in behavioural ecology studies. Therefore, the first aim of this article is to review the available data of the influence of the social context on decision-making both from a causal and functional perspective, drawing on animal and human studies. Also, there is currently still a gap between decision-making in real life where influences of the social environment are extensive, and decision-making as measured in the laboratory, which is often done without any (deliberate social influences. However, methods are being developed to bridge this gap. Therefore, the second aim of this review is to discuss these methods and ways in which this gap can be increasingly narrowed. We end this review by formulating future research questions.

Capacity Building on the Use of Earth Observation for Bridging the Gaps between Science and Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Thapa, R. B.; Bajracharya, B.

2017-12-01

Although the geospatial technologies and Earth observation (EO) data are getting more accessible, lack of skilled human resources and institutional capacities are the major hurdles in the effective applications in Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. Designing efficient and cost effective capacity building (CB) programs fitting needs by different users on the use of EO information for decision making will provide options in bridging the gaps in the region. This paper presents the strategies adopted by SERVIR-HKH as an attempt to strengthen the capacity of governments and development stakeholders in the region. SERVIR-HKH hub plays vital role in CB on EO applications by bringing together the leading scientists from the Globe and the key national institutions and stakeholders in the region. We conducted country consultation workshops in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal to identify national priorities, requirements and the capacity of the institutions to utilize EO information in decision making. The need assessments were focused on four thematic areas of SERVIR where capacity gaps in utilization of EO data in policy decisions were identified in thirteen key service areas. Geospatial capacities in GIT infrastructure, data, and human resources were varied. Linking EO information to policy decision is mostly lacking. Geospatial data sharing provision among the institutions in the region is poor. We developed a capacity building strategy for HKH region which bridges the gaps in a coordinated manner through customized training programs, institutional strengthening, coordination and regional cooperation. Using the strategy, we conducted training on FEWS NET remote sensing products for agro-climatological analysis, which focused on technical interpretation and analysis of the remote sensing and modeled products, eg, CHIRPS, RFE2, CHIRTS, GFS, NDVI, GeoCLIM and GeoGLAM. Scientists from USGS FEWS NET program delivered the training to mid-level managers and decision

A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burhanuddin M. A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iskrov G

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. V. Nadurak

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

2014-01-01

Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products 'just likely to be reimbursed'; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit. The results from the post

Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

Science.gov (United States)

Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

2016-09-01

Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-11-01

Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

Vehicle Codes and Standards: Overview and Gap Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blake, C.; Buttner, W.; Rivkin, C.

2010-02-01

This report identifies gaps in vehicle codes and standards and recommends ways to fill the gaps, focusing on six alternative fuels: biodiesel, natural gas, electricity, ethanol, hydrogen, and propane.

GAP ANALYSIS OF TRAVELOKA.COM: HOTEL CONSUMERS’ EXPECTATIONS AND PERCEPTIONS OF THE WEBSITE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fransisca Andreani

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Traveloka.com is one of the famous online travel agents to make hotel reservation in Indonesia. Consumers making online hotel reservation can sometimes find that the performance of the website does not meet their needs. This study is to analyze the gap between hotel consumer expectations and perceptions on the website dimensions of traveloka.com. It is a quantitative method with 150 respondents who made hotel re­ser­vations through traveloka.com. The analysis techniques used are mean test and paired t-test. The results show that there are significant gaps between consumer expectations and perceptions on the website dimensions of traveloka.com. The biggest gap is on the images displayed which are in accordance with the real conditions.

The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Perez, Angela L; Gauthier, Alison M; Ferracini, Tyler; Cowan, Dallas M; Kingsbury, Tony; Panko, Julie

2017-01-01

Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, 3 methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list-based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in 2 modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggesting that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but that are important to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:198-207. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

Merging building maintainability and sustainability assessment: A multicriteria decision making approach

Science.gov (United States)

Asmone, A. S.; Chew, M. Y. L.

2018-02-01

Accurately predicting maintainability has been a challenge due to the complex nature of buildings, yet it is an important research area with a rising necessity. This paper explores the use of multicriteria decision making approach for merging maintainability and sustainability elements into building grading systems to attain long-term sustainability in the building industry. The paper conducts a systematic literature review on multicriteria decision analysis approach and builds on the existing knowledge of maintainability to achieve this. A conceptual framework is developed to bridge the gap between building operations and maintenance with green facilities management by forecasting green maintainability at the design stage.

A consumption value-gap analysis for sustainable consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Biswas, Aindrila

2017-03-01

Recent studies on consumption behavior have depicted environmental apprehension resulting from across wide consumer segments. However, this has not been widely reflected upon the growth in the market shares for green or environment-friendly products mostly because gaps exist between consumers' expectations and perceptions for those products. Previous studies have highlighted the impact of perceived value on potential demand, consumer satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The necessity to understand the effects of gaps in expected and perceived values on consumers' behavioral intention and potential demand for green products cannot be undermined as it shapes the consumers' inclination to repeated purchase and consumption and thus foster potential market demand. Pertaining to this reason, the study aims to adopt a consumption value-gap model based on the theory of consumption values to assess their impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand of green products. Consumption value refers to the level of fulfillment of consumer needs by assessment of net utility derived after effective comparison between the benefits (financial or emotional) and the gives (money, time, or energy). The larger the gaps the higher will be the adversarial impact on behavioral intentions. A structural equation modeling was applied to assess data collected through questionnaire survey. The results indicate that functional value-gap and environmental value-gap has the most adversarial impact on sustainable consumption behavior and market demand for green products.

Women Labor Market: Gender Pay Gap and Its Determinants / Trh práce žen: Gender pay gap a jeho determinanty [available in Czech only

OpenAIRE

Martina Mysíková

2007-01-01

This study is concerned with decomposing the gender pay gap in the Czech Republic. It aims not only to compare male and female wage-equations but also to uncover the gender pay gap structure. The decision of many women not to participate in the labor market can be influenced by potentially low wages. Their entry into the labor market could increase the gender pay gap in large measure. The advantage of this study is that it uses a selection method to estimate the male and female wage equations...

Investigation on prediction capability of nuclear design parameters for gap configuration in ITER through analysis of the FNS gap streaming experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maekawa, Fujio; Konno, Chikara; Kasugai, Yoshimi; Oyama, Yukio; Uno, Yoshitomo; Maekawa, Hiroshi; Ikeda, Yujiro

2000-01-01

As an R and D Task of shielding neutronics experiment under the Engineering Design Activities of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), streaming experiments with simulating a gap configuration formed by two neighboring blanket modules of ITER were carried out at the FNS (Fusion Neutron Source) facility. In this work, prediction capability of various nuclear design parameters was investigated through analysis of the experiments. The Monte Carlo transport calculation code MCNP-4A and the FENDL/E-1.0 and JENDL Fusion File cross section data libraries were used for the analysis with detailed modeling of the experimental conditions. As a result, all the measured quantities were reproduced within about ±30% by the calculations. It was concluded that these calculation tools were capable of predicting nuclear design parameters, such as helium production rates at connection legs of blanket modules to the back plate and nuclear responses in toroidal field coils, with uncertainty of ±30% for the geometry where gap-streaming effect was significant. (author)

Explaining the energy efficiency gap - expected utility theory versus cumulative prospect theory

OpenAIRE

Häckel, Björn; Pfosser, Stefan; Tränkler, Timm

2017-01-01

Energy efficiency is one of the key factors in mitigating the impact of climate change and preserving non-renewable resources. Although environmental and economic justifications for energy efficiency investments are compelling, there is a gap between the observable and some notion of optimized energy consumption - the so-called energy efficiency gap. Behavioral biases in individual decision making have been resonated by environmental research to explain this gap. To analyze the influence of b...

Functional Gap Analysis of the Maritime Operations Centers

Science.gov (United States)

2009-12-01

Messaging Services TBMCS , DJC2 MI.1.3.5 Manage Suspense Control Capability Gap MI.1.3.6 Provide Component IM Cell Services Capability Gap MI.1.4 Provide...Admin Support MSRT MI.1.3.3 Manage Electronic File Plan Capability Gap MI.1.3.4 Manage Messaging Services TBMCS , DJC2 MI.1.3.5 Manage Suspense...1.5.9 Execute C4 Policies & Procedures for the Joint Operations Area GCCS-J, DCGS-N, TBMCS , CENTRIX-M EHQ.1.11 Sub Component Interagency

The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

Criteria for Drug Reimbursement Decision-Making: An Emerging Public Health Challenge in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgi Iskrov

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background: During times of fiscal austerity, means of reimbursement decision-making are of particular interest for public health theory and practice. Introduction of advanced health technologies, growing health expenditures and increased public scrutiny over drug reimbursement decisions have pushed governments to consider mechanisms that promote the use of effective health technologies, while constraining costs. Aims: The study’s aim was to explore the current rationale of the drug reimbursement decision-making framework in Bulgaria. Our pilot research focused on one particular component of this process – the criteria used – because of the critical role that criteria are known to have in setting budgets and priorities in the field of public health. The analysis pursued two objectives: to identify important criteria relevant to drug reimbursement decision-making and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: The study was realized through a closed-ended survey on reimbursement criteria among four major public health stakeholders – medical professionals, patients, health authorities, and industry. Empirical outcomes were then cross-compared with the theoretical framework, as defined by current Bulgarian public health legislation. Analysis outlined what is done and what needs to be done in the field of public health reimbursement decision-making. Results: Bulgarian public health stakeholders agreed on 15 criteria to form a tentative optimal framework for drug reimbursement decision-making. The most apparent gap between the empirically found preferences and the official legislation is the lack of consideration for the strength of evidence in reimbursement decisions. Conclusion: Bulgarian policy makers need to address specific gaps, such as formal consideration for strength of evidence, explicit role of efficiency criteria, and means to effectively empower patient and citizen

A Capstone Project Using the Gap Analysis Model: Closing the College Readiness Gap for Latino English Language Learners with a Focus on School Support and School Counseling Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Jimenez, Evelyn

2013-01-01

This capstone project applied Clark and Estes' (2008) gap analysis framework to identify performance gaps, develop perceived root causes, validate the causes, and formulate research-based solutions to present to Trojan High School. The purpose was to examine ways to increase the academic achievement of ELL students, specifically Latinos, by…

Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

1992-01-01

In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

Effects of major-road vehicle speed and driver age and gender on left-turn gap acceptance.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xuedong; Radwan, Essam; Guo, Dahai

2007-07-01

Because the driver's gap-acceptance maneuver is a complex and risky driving behavior, it is a highly concerned topic for traffic safety and operation. Previous studies have mainly focused on the driver's gap acceptance decision itself but did not pay attention to the maneuver process and driving behaviors. Using a driving simulator experiment for left-turn gap acceptance at a stop-controlled intersection, this study evaluated the effects of major traffic speed and driver age and gender on gap acceptance behaviors. The experiment results illustrate relationships among drivers' left-turn gap decision, driver's acceleration rate, steering action, and the influence of the gap-acceptance maneuver on the vehicles in the major traffic stream. The experiment results identified an association between high crash risk and high traffic speed at stop-controlled intersections. The older drivers, especially older female drivers, displayed a conservative driving attitude as a compensation for reduced driving ability, but also showed to be the most vulnerable group for the relatively complex driving maneuvers.

The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

2016-08-01

The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

1997-04-01

If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

Science.gov (United States)

Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

2016-01-01

Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.

1982-03-01

In our interim report we gave a general review of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report we go on to consider examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and to discuss how two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) could be used to assist these tasks. The example decisions we have chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream. (U.K.)

Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, S R; Hayward, G M

1982-01-01

In our interim report a general review was given of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report, consideration is given to examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) which could be used to assist these tasks are discussed. The example decisions chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream.

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision Analysis Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hammad Dabo Baba

2014-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

Caring Decisions: The Development of a Written Resource for Parents Facing End-of-Life Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Xafis, Vicki; Gillam, Lynn; Hynson, Jenny; Sullivan, Jane; Cossich, Mary; Wilkinson, Dominic

2015-11-01

Written resources in adult intensive care have been shown to benefit families facing end of life (EoL) decisions. There are few resources for parents making EoL decisions for their child and no existing resources addressing ethical issues. The Caring Decisions handbook and website were developed to fill these gaps. We discuss the development of the resources, modification after reviewer feedback and findings from initial pilot implementation. A targeted literature review-to identify resources and factors that impact on parental EoL decision-making; development phase-guided by the literature and the researchers' expertise; consultation process-comprised a multi-disciplinary panel of experts and parents; pilot evaluation study-hard-copy handbook was distributed as part of routine care at an Australian Children's Hospital. Twelve experts and parents formed the consultation panel. Eight parents of children with life-limiting conditions and clinicians were interviewed in the pilot study. Numerous factors supporting/impeding EoL decisions were identified. Caring Decisions addressed issues identified in the literature and by the multidisciplinary research team. The consultation panel provided overwhelmingly positive feedback. Pilot study parents found the resources helpful and comforting. Most clinicians viewed the resources as very beneficial to parents and identified them as ideal for training purposes. The development of the resources addressed many of the gaps in existing resources. The consultation process and the pilot study suggest these resources could be of significant benefit to parents and clinicians.

Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

2012-01-01

The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantification of gap junctional intercellular communication based on digital image analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofgaard, Johannes P; Mollerup, Sarah; Holstein-Rathlou, Niels-Henrik

2009-01-01

Intercellular communication via gap junction channels can be quantified by several methods based on diffusion of fluorescent dyes or metabolites. Given the variation in intercellular coupling of cells, even under untreated control conditions, it is of essence to quantify the coupling between...... and in cells receiving dye by intercellular diffusion. The analysis performed is semiautomatic, and comparison with traditional cell counting shows that this method reliably determines the effect of uncoupling by several interventions. This new method of analysis yields a rapid and objective quantification...

Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

Finance organizations, decisions and emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pixley, Jocelyn

2002-03-01

Analyses of global financial markets are dominated by atomized models of decision-making and behavioural psychology ('exuberance' or 'panic'). In contrast, this paper argues that overwhelmingly, finance organizations rather than 'individuals' make decisions, and routinely use emotions in formulating expectations. Keynes introduced emotion (business confidence and animal spirits) but in economics, emotion remains individualistic and irrational. Luhmann's system theory lies at the other extreme, where emotions like trust and confidence are central variables, functional in the reduction of complexity in sub-systems like the economy. The gap between irrational emotions aggregated to 'herd' behaviour in economics, and 'system trust' applied to finance and money as a 'medium of communication' in sociology, remains largely unfilled. This paper argues that while organizations cannot be said to 'think' or 'feel', they are rational and emotional, because impersonal trust, confidence and their contrary emotions are unavoidable in decision-making due to fundamental uncertainty. These future-oriented emotions are prevalent within and between organizations in the financial sector, primarily in generating expectations. The dynamic of corporate activities of tense and ruthless struggle is a more plausible level of analysis than either financial 'manias' in aggregate or 'system trust'.

Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. Methods An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers’ knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. Results The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer’s costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic

Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelstam, Per; Mikusiński, Grzegorz; Rönnbäck, Britt-Inger; Ostman, Anders; Lazdinis, Marius; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Arnberg, Wolter; Olsson, Jan

2003-12-01

The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.

An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Li Meng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

'Mind the Gap!'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, Karl Gunnar

This paper challenges the widely held view that sharply falling real transport costs closed the transatlantic gap in grain prices in the second half of the 19th century. Several new results emerge from an analysis of a new data set of weekly wheat prices and freight costs from New York to UK...... markets. Firstly, there was a decline in the transatlantic price gap but it was not sharp and the gap remained substantial. Secondly, the fall in the transatlantic price differential had more to do with improved market and marketing efficiency than with falling transport costs. Thirdly, spurious price...

Experiencing biodiversity as a bridge over the science-society communication gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Meinard, Yves; Quétier, Fabien

2014-06-01

Drawing on the idea that biodiversity is simply the diversity of living things, and that everyone knows what diversity and living things mean, most conservation professionals eschew the need to explain the many complex ways in which biodiversity is understood in science. On many biodiversity-related issues, this lack of clarity leads to a communication gap between science and the general public, including decision makers who must design and implement biodiversity policies. Closing this communication gap is pivotal to the ability of science to inform sound environmental decision making. To address this communication gap, we propose a surrogate of biodiversity for communication purposes that captures the scientific definition of biodiversity yet can be understood by nonscientists; that is, biodiversity as a learning experience. The prerequisites of this or any other biodiversity communication surrogate are that it should have transdisciplinary relevance; not be measurable; be accessible to a wide audience; be usable to translate biodiversity issues; and understandably encompass biodiversity concepts. Biodiversity as a learning experience satisfies these prerequisites and is philosophically robust. More importantly, it can effectively contribute to closing the communication gap between biodiversity science and society at large. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

2016-01-01

The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2016-04-04

AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

CFD analysis of heat transfer in a vertical annular gas gap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgohain, A.; Maheshwari, N.K.; Vijayan, P.K.

2011-01-01

Heat transfer analysis in a vertical annulus is carried out by using a CFD code TRIO-U. The results are used to understand heat transfer in the vertical annulus. An experimental study is taken from literature for the CFD analysis. The geometry of the test section of the experiment is simulated in TRIO-U. The operating conditions of the experiment are simulated by imposing appropriate boundary conditions. Three modes of the heat transfer, conduction, radiation and convection in the gas gap are considered in the analysis. From the analysis it is found that TRIO-U can successfully handle all modes heat transfer. The theoretical results for heat transfer have been compared with experimental data. This paper deals with the detailed CFD modelling and analysis. (author)

Reproductive decision-making in a macro-micro environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.E.

2015-01-01

- Takes a new approach to understanding Europe’s fertility gap - Demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making - Provides new insights into how people make decisions about having children as well as how policies affect fertility This book provides new insights into

Reproductive Decision-Making in a Macro-Micro Perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.

2015-01-01

This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international

"Mind the gap!" Evaluation of the performance gap attributable to exception reporting and target thresholds in the new GMS contract: National database analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cookson Richard

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2003 revision of the UK GMS contract rewards general practices for performance against clinical quality indicators. Practices can exempt patients from treatment, and can receive maximum payment for less than full coverage of eligible patients. This paper aims to estimate the gap between the percentage of maximum incentive gained and the percentage of patients receiving indicated care (the pay-performance gap, and to estimate how much of the gap is attributable respectively to thresholds and to exception reporting. Methods Analysis of Quality Outcomes Framework data in the National Primary Care Database and exception reporting data from the Information Centre from 8407 practices in England in 2005 – 6. The main outcome measures were the gap between the percentage of maximum incentive gained and the percentage of patients receiving indicated care at the practice level, both for individual indicators and a combined composite score. An additional outcome was the percentage of that gap attributable respectively to exception reporting and maximum threshold targets set at less than 100%. Results The mean pay-performance gap for the 65 aggregated clinical indicators was 13.3% (range 2.9% to 48%. 52% of this gap (6.9% of eligible patients is attributable to thresholds being set at less than 100%, and 48% to patients being exception reported. The gap was greater than 25% in 9 indicators: beta blockers and cholesterol control in heart disease; cholesterol control in stroke; influenza immunization in asthma; blood pressure, sugar and cholesterol control in diabetes; seizures in epilepsy and treatment of hypertension. Conclusion Threshold targets and exception reporting introduce an incentive ceiling, which substantially reduces the percentage of eligible patients that UK practices need to treat in order to receive maximum incentive payments for delivering that care. There are good clinical reasons for exception reporting, but after

Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 6 - immunology

Science.gov (United States)

In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of FMD research. This has been updated with findings reported in a series of papers. Here we present findings for FMD immunology research. The paper consists of the following four sections: 1. Research prior...

Barriers for an effective communication around clinical decision making: an analysis of the gaps between doctors' and patients' point of view.

Science.gov (United States)

Mira, José Joaquín; Guilabert, Mercedes; Pérez-Jover, Virtudes; Lorenzo, Susana

2014-12-01

There are doubts on whether patients feel that they have sufficient information for actively participating in clinical decisions. To describe the type of information that patients receive. To determine whether patients consider this information sufficient, and whether it contributes or not to improve clinical safety. To identify the barriers for patient participation in clinical decision making. Cross-sectional study with 764 patients and 327 physicians. Fourteen health centres belonging to three primary care districts and three hospitals in Spain. Just 35.1% (268) (95% CI 32.2, 39.1%) of patients preferred to have the last word in clinical decisions. Age (39 vs. 62%, P communication by the patients. Only 19.6% (64) (95% CI 15.4, 24.2%) of doctors considered that they could intervene to involve patients in the decisions. The majority of patients prefer the decisions to be made by their doctor, especially those with more severe illnesses, and older patients. Patients are not normally informed about medication interactions, precautions and foreseeable complications. The information provided by general practitioners does not seem to contribute enough to the patient involvement in clinical safety. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Health social workers sources of knowledge for decision making in practice.

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, Fiona; Henderson, Annabel; Quayle, Carol

2017-10-01

This article presents findings from research examining knowledge social workers in a health network in Victoria, Australia identified as informing their decision-making. Data for 13 patients, and in-depth interviews with six social workers who worked with these patients, were studied. A thematic analysis of interviews revealed that participants identified reliance on past experience and contextual/situational information as underpinning their decisions, demonstrating their commitment to person-in-environment perspectives. However, despite the availability of a repository of empirical evidence, no respondent made use of this. This study provided insight into health practitioners' sources of knowledge, highlighting gaps and areas for further exploration.

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2003-01-01

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

A retrospective analysis of glycol and toxic alcohol ingestion: utility of anion and osmolal gaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krasowski Matthew D

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients ingesting ethylene glycol, isopropanol, methanol, and propylene glycol ('toxic alcohols' often present with non-specific signs and symptoms. Definitive diagnosis of toxic alcohols has traditionally been by gas chromatography (GC, a technique not commonly performed on-site in hospital clinical laboratories. The objectives of this retrospective study were: 1 to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the osmolal gap in screening for toxic alcohol ingestion and 2 to determine the common reasons other than toxic alcohol ingestion for elevated osmolal gaps. Methods Electronic medical records from an academic tertiary care medical center were searched to identify all patients in the time period from January 1, 1996 to September 1, 2010 who had serum/plasma ethanol, glucose, sodium, blood urea nitrogen, and osmolality measured simultaneously, and also all patients who had GC analysis for toxic alcohols. Detailed chart review was performed on all patients with osmolal gap of 9 or greater. Results In the study period, 20,669 patients had determination of serum/plasma ethanol and osmolal gap upon presentation to the hospitals. There were 341 patients with an osmolal gap greater than 14 (including correction for estimated contribution of ethanol on initial presentation to the medical center. Seventy-seven patients tested positive by GC for one or more toxic alcohols; all had elevated anion gap or osmolal gap or both. Other than toxic alcohols, the most common causes for an elevated osmolal gap were recent heavy ethanol consumption with suspected alcoholic ketoacidosis, renal failure, shock, and recent administration of mannitol. Only 9 patients with osmolal gap greater than 50 and no patients with osmolal gap greater than 100 were found to be negative for toxic alcohols. Conclusions Our study concurs with other investigations that show that osmolal gap can be a useful diagnostic test in conjunction with clinical history and physical

Combining multicriteria decision analysis, ethics and health technology assessment: applying the EVIDEM decisionmaking framework to growth hormone for Turner syndrome patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grégoire Jean-Pierre

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objectives To test and further develop a healthcare policy and clinical decision support framework using growth hormone (GH for Turner syndrome (TS as a complex case study. Methods The EVIDEM framework was further developed to complement the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA Value Matrix, that includes 15 quantifiable components of decision clustered in four domains (quality of evidence, disease, intervention and economics, with a qualitative tool including six ethical and health system-related components of decision. An extensive review of the literature was performed to develop a health technology assessment report (HTA tailored to each component of decision, and content was validated by experts. A panel of representative stakeholders then estimated the MCDA value of GH for TS in Canada by assigning weights and scores to each MCDA component of decision and then considered the impact of non-quantifiable components of decision. Results Applying the framework revealed significant data gaps and the importance of aligning research questions with data needs to truly inform decision. Panelists estimated the value of GH for TS at 41% of maximum value on the MCDA scale, with good agreement at the individual level (retest value 40%; ICC: 0.687 and large variation across panelists. Main contributors to this panel specific value were "Improvement of efficacy", "Disease severity" and "Quality of evidence". Ethical considerations on utility, efficiency and fairness as well as potential misuse of GH had mixed effects on the perceived value of the treatment. Conclusions This framework is proposed as a pragmatic step beyond the current cost-effectiveness model, combining HTA, MCDA, values and ethics. It supports systematic consideration of all components of decision and available evidence for greater transparency. Further testing and validation is needed to build up MCDA approaches combined with pragmatic HTA in healthcare decisionmaking.

TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

2016-01-01

In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kalwij, A.S.

1999-01-01

This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Chin-Feng; Yihb, Swu

1997-01-01

A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

Systematic maintenance analysis with decision support method and tool for optimizing maintenance programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laakso, K.; Simola, K.; Dorrepaal, J.; Skogberg, P.

1999-01-01

This report describes an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of test and maintenance programs of technical systems used during several years. The method combines an analysis of the historical data on faults and repairs with an analysis of the history of periodic testing and preventive maintenance action programs. The application of the maintenance analysis from the methodological point of view in the reliability centered maintenance (RCM) project for Barsebaeck nuclear power plant is described. In order to limit the analysis resources, a method for ranking of objects for maintenance analysis is needed. Preliminary suggestions for changes in maintenance action programs are based on signals from simple maintenance indicators and qualitative analysis of underlying data on failures and maintenance. To facilitate generation of maintenance indicators, and make the maintenance analysis more efficient, a powerful and suitable data treatment tool is needed for analysis of the work order history. In the final maintenance decisions, additional decision criteria must be taken into account, and thus a more formal decision analysis is often needed for decision support. (au)

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

2012-01-01

Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

1986-08-01

The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Sequence and expression analysis of gaps in human chromosome 20

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Minocherhomji, Sheroy; Seemann, Stefan; Mang, Yuan

2012-01-01

/or overlap disease-associated loci, including the DLGAP4 locus. In this study, we sequenced ~99% of all three unfinished gaps on human chr 20, determined their complete genomic sizes and assessed epigenetic profiles using a combination of Sanger sequencing, mate pair paired-end high-throughput sequencing......The finished human genome-assemblies comprise several hundred un-sequenced euchromatic gaps, which may be rich in long polypurine/polypyrimidine stretches. Human chromosome 20 (chr 20) currently has three unfinished gaps remaining on its q-arm. All three gaps are within gene-dense regions and...... and chromatin, methylation and expression analyses. We found histone 3 trimethylated at Lysine 27 to be distributed across all three gaps in immortalized B-lymphocytes. In one gap, five novel CpG islands were predominantly hypermethylated in genomic DNA from peripheral blood lymphocytes and human cerebellum...

Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sudeshna Chatterjee

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: 1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Settings and Design: Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. Methods and Material: It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients (n = 200 of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Statistical Analysis Used: Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%. Results: Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. Conclusions: The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

Integration of different data gap filling techniques to facilitate ...

Science.gov (United States)

Data gap filling techniques are commonly used to predict hazard in the absence of empirical data. The most established techniques are read-across, trend analysis and quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs). Toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) are less frequently used data gap filling techniques which are applied to estimate relative potencies for mixtures of chemicals that contribute to an adverse outcome through a common biological target. For example, The TEF approach has been used for dioxin-like effects comparing individual chemical activity to that of the most toxic dioxin: 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. The aim of this case study was to determine whether integration of two data gap filling techniques: QSARs and TEFs improved the predictive outcome for the assessment of a set of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and their mixtures. PCBs are associated with many different adverse effects, including their potential for neurotoxicity, which is the endpoint of interest in this study. The dataset comprised 209 PCB congeners, out of which 87 altered in vitro Ca(2+) homeostasis from which neurotoxic equivalency values (NEQs) were derived. The preliminary objective of this case study was to develop a QSAR model to predict NEQ values for the 122 untested PCB congeners. A decision tree model was developed using the number of position specific chlorine substitutions on the biphenyl scaffold as a fingerprint descriptor. Three different positiona

Mind the gap: financial London and the regional class pay gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Sam; Laurison, Daniel

2017-09-01

The hidden barriers, or 'gender pay gap', preventing women from earning equivalent incomes to men is well documented. Yet recent research has uncovered that, in Britain, there is also a comparable class-origin pay gap in higher professional and managerial occupations. So far this analysis has only been conducted at the national level and it is not known whether there are regional differences within the UK. This paper uses pooled data from the 2014 and 2015 Labour Force Survey (N = 7,534) to stage a more spatially sensitive analysis that examines regional variation in the class pay gap. We find that this 'class ceiling' is not evenly spatially distributed. Instead it is particularly marked in Central London, where those in high-status occupations who are from working-class backgrounds earn, on average, £10,660 less per year than those whose parents were in higher professional and managerial employment. Finally, we inspect the Capital further to reveal that the class pay gap is largest within Central London's banking and finance sector. Challenging policy conceptions of London as the 'engine room' of social mobility, these findings suggest that class disadvantage within high-status occupations is particularly acute in the Capital. The findings also underline the value of investigating regional differences in social mobility, and demonstrate how such analysis can unravel important and previously unrecognized spatial dimensions of class inequality. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2017.

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

Caring Decisions: The Development of a Written Resource for Parents Facing End-of-Life Decisions

OpenAIRE

Xafis, Vicki; Gillam, Lynn; Hynson, Jenny; Sullivan, Jane; Cossich, Mary; Wilkinson, Dominic

2015-01-01

Background: Written resources in adult intensive care have been shown to benefit families facing end of life (EoL) decisions. There are few resources for parents making EoL decisions for their child and no existing resources addressing ethical issues. TheCaring Decisionshandbook and website were developed to fill these gaps. Aim: We discuss the development of the resources, modification after reviewer feedback and findings from initial pilot implementation. Design: A targeted...

Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Sedlár

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

Global Gaps in Clean Energy RD and D

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

This report seeks to inform decision makers seeking to prioritise RD&D investments in a time of financial uncertainty. It is an update of the December 2009 IEA report Global Gaps in Clean Energy Research, Development and Demonstration, which examined whether rates of LCET investment were sufficient to achieve shared global energy and environmental goals (IEA,2009). It discusses the impact of the green stimulus spending announcements, and provides private sector perspectives on priorities for government RD&D spending. Finally, it includes a revised assessment of the gaps in public RD&D, together with suggestions for possible areas for expanded international collaboration on specific LCETs. The conclusion re-affirms the first Global Gaps study finding that governments and industry need to dramatically increase their spending on RD&D for LCETs.

Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

Decisions an engineering and management perspective

CERN Document Server

Gaynor, G

2015-01-01

This book considers what it takes to convert the macro decision into a positive outcome; to resolve the gap that exists between the macro and subsidiary decisions; to understand why so many decisions fail to meet expectations; to direct the mindset of the engineering community to focus on its relation to other organizational units; to perform diligently the up-front work required to meet objectives; to stop squandering valuable talent and resources; to urge engineers and other discipline professionals to take a more business-oriented approach in participating in the organization's decision-making process; lastly, to not only recognize the importance of and the role of communication in all decision-making processes, but to initiate appropriate communication processes.

Evidence-based decision-making 7: Knowledge translation.

Science.gov (United States)

Manns, Braden J

2015-01-01

There is a significant gap between what is known and what is implemented by key stakeholders in practice (the evidence to practice gap). The primary purpose of knowledge translation is to address this gap, bridging evidence to clinical practice. The knowledge to action cycle is one framework for knowledge translation that integrates policy-makers throughout the research cycle. The knowledge to action cycle begins with the identification of a problem (usually a gap in care provision). After identification of the problem, knowledge creation is undertaken, depicted at the center of the cycle as a funnel. Knowledge inquiry is at the wide end of the funnel, and moving down the funnel, the primary data is synthesized into knowledge products in the form of educational materials, guidelines, decision aids, or clinical pathways. The remaining components of the knowledge to action cycle refer to the action of applying the knowledge that has been created. This includes adapting knowledge to local context, assessing barriers to knowledge use, selecting, tailoring implementing interventions, monitoring knowledge use, evaluating outcomes, and sustaining knowledge use. Each of these steps is connected by bidirectional arrows and ideally involves healthcare decision-makers and key stakeholders at each transition.

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

Science.gov (United States)

Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

2013-12-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

The "efficacy-effectiveness gap" : Historical background and current conceptualization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nordon, Clementine; Karcher, Helene; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Ankarfeldt, Mikkel Zöllner; Pichler, Franz; Chevrou-Severac, Helene; Rossignol, Michel; Abbe, Adeline; Abenhaim, Lucien

Background The concept of the "efficacy-effectiveness gap" (EEG) has started to challenge confidence in decisions made for drugs when based on randomized controlled trials alone. Launched by the Innovative Medicines Initiative, the GetReal project aims to improve understanding of how to reconcile

Gap Analysis of Storage Conditions between NNSS and LANL for SAVY 4000 Use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reeves, Kirk Patrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Paul Herrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stone, Timothy Amos [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Becker, Chandler Gus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karns, Tristan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Veirs, Douglas Kirk [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-07-25

As part of the gap analysis for utilizing the SAVY 4000® at NNSS, the hydrogen gas generation rate and the effect of atmospheric pressure changes on the maximum normal operating pressure (MNOP) of the SAVY container must be evaluated because the nuclear material characteristics and atmospheric conditions will not be the same for NNSS and LANL. This paper documents this analysis and demonstrates that the LANL SAVY Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is bounding with respect to the Nevada facilities.

Understanding the Gender Gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldin, Claudia

1985-01-01

Despite the great influx of women into the labor market, the gap between men's and women's wages has remained stable at 40 percent since 1950. Analysis of labor data suggests that this has occurred because women's educational attainment compared to men has declined. Recently, however, the wage gap has begun to narrow, and this will probably become…

Decision strategy research: system analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, B.

2000-01-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

Decision strategy research: system analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carle, B

2000-07-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

IMPLEMENTATION OF GIS-BASED MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS WITH VB IN ArcGIS

OpenAIRE

DERYA OZTURK; FATMAGUL BATUK

2011-01-01

This article focuses on the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geographical information systems (GIS) and introduces a tool, GIS–MCDA, written in visual basic in ArcGIS for GIS-based MCDA. The GIS–MCDA deals with raster-based data sets and includes standardization, weighting and decision analysis methods, and sensitivity analysis. Simple additive weighting, weighted product method, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, compromise programming, a...

The Impact of Depression on Social Economic Decision Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Harlé, K.M.; Allen, J.J.B.; Sanfey, A.G.

2010-01-01

Although the role of emotion in social economic decision making has been increasingly recognized, the impact of mood disorders, such as depression, on such decisions has been surprisingly neglected. To address this gap, 15 depressed and 23 nondepressed individuals completed a well-known economic

Reproductive decision-making: A milestone, and the road ahead

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Philipov, D.; Klobas, J.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.E.

2015-01-01

This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international

Knowledge, attitude and practice GAP in family planning usage: an analysis of selected cities of Uttar Pradesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Anjali; Singh, K K; Verma, Prashant

2016-01-01

The GAP between the knowledge of contraception and its actual practice is well recognized in the literature of family welfare studies. The present study assessed the relation between the level of knowledge and practice of contraception among the women and sought to explore the reasons behind the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice - GAP (KAP GAP) regarding contraceptive users in six cities of Uttar Pradesh. Present analysis based on 17,643 currently married women aged 15 to 49. A Bivariate analysis ( χ 2 test) and a multivariable logistic regression were performed for the study. The highest percentages of respondents (women) were in the age group 35-49 (40-45 %) in all the districts considered. Knowledge of contraceptives was almost universal; tubal ligation and pill were the commonly known methods. Information about the contraceptive methods was mostly obtained through the husband. In the present study, there was a highly significant association ( p  GAP for all six cities. Health concern issues in all the districts were the most prominent reason for not using contraception. There differences in the socioeconomic and demographic factors exist, which lead to KAP GAP in the family planning (FP) usages. Therefore, in designing effective family planning programme, there is a need to understand the various factors which influence the practice of contraception.

Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

2000-03-01

This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

2000-03-01

This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

2014-02-01

Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

Nicotine replacement therapy decision based on fuzzy multi-criteria analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tarmudi, Zamali; Matmali, Norfazillah; Abdullah, Mohd Lazim

2017-08-01

It has been observed that Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) is one of the alternatives to control and reduce smoking addiction among smokers. Since the decision to choose the best NRT alternative involves uncertainty, ambiguity factors and diverse input datasets, thus, this paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria analysis (FMA) to overcome these issues. It focuses on how the fuzzy approach can unify the diversity of datasets based on NRT's decision-making problem. The analysis done employed the advantage of the cost-benefit criterion to unify the mixture of dataset input. The performance matrix was utilised to derive the performance scores. An empirical example regarding the NRT's decision-making problem was employed to illustrate the proposed approach. Based on the calculations, this analytical approach was found to be highly beneficial in terms of usability. It was also very applicable and efficient in dealing with the mixture of input datasets. Hence, the decision-making process can easily be used by experts and patients who are interested to join the therapy/cessation program.

Benchmarking and gap analysis of faculty mentorship priorities and how well they are met.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, Deborah Watkins; Dunbar, Sandra; Higgins, Melinda; Martyn, Kristy

2016-01-01

There is little consensus among faculty mentoring programs as to best practices. While there are recommendations in the literature to base faculty development programs on gap analyses of faculty ratings of actual and preferred performance in teaching, scholarship and service, no gap analysis was found in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop a survey tool to benchmark school of nursing (SON) faculty mentorship priorities and conduct a gap analysis of how well they were being addressed. Senior faculty who lead mentorship as part of their roles in the SON (associate and assistant deans and director of mentorship) developed a survey through (a) asking faculty members for priorities at in-person mentorship seminars, (b) a review of current nursing literature, and (c) input from the SON mentorship advisory board. The final survey included 37 items focused on general job duties, structure of the mentoring program, time management, as well as skills needed for research, teaching, practice, writing and team science. Responses (rated from 0-not important to 5-very high priority) were requested in 4 areas: the first area focused on how high a priority the respondent rated a given item and areas 2 to 4 focused on how well the need was met by one of three resources: their SON primary assigned mentor, other SON resources, or other university resources. There were 63 eligible SON faculty to whom the survey was e-mailed with a 60% (n = 38) response rate. Most of the respondents were clinical track (42.1%) followed by tenure track (39.5%) and research track (15.8%). Half were assistant professors. The percentage of respondents giving a rating of 4 to 5 were calculated and then ranked. Almost all the faculty responding, regardless of track or rank, desired formal mentorship. Among all faculty, the top five priorities were guidance on producing timely publications (70.4%), mentorship on work-life balance (68%), mentorship on putting together a promotion

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

Science.gov (United States)

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

Sustainability Tools Inventory Initial Gap Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

This report identifies a suite of tools that address a comprehensive set of community sustainability concerns. The objective is to discover whether "gaps" exist in the tool suite’s analytic capabilities. These tools address activities that significantly influence resource consu...

State of the art and an integrated proposal to assess the energy gap in the implementation of cogeneration in industrial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escudero A, Ana C; Botero B, Sergio

2009-01-01

This paper shows the state of the art of decision making methodologies and theories that are in the literature and address topics related to the implementation of cogeneration systems. These topics are energy efficiency, new technologies adoption. These are analyzed in how they try to explain a complex phenomenon such as the energy gap (low implementation of technically and economically feasible energy efficiency projects), and classifying them in four methodological approaches. Based on the analysis of these approaches, a conceptual proposal is proposed, setting the decision maker as the central object of study, and the real (not the ideal) decision making process as a mechanism that facilitates the identification and understanding of the phenomenon from the bounded rationality principles.

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

Science.gov (United States)

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

2013-01-01

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

An organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies.

Science.gov (United States)

Scahill, Shane L; Carswell, Peter; Harrison, Jeff

2011-09-01

The barriers to moving forward and meeting the expectations of policy makers and professional pharmacy bodies appear to relate to the organizational culture of community pharmacy. Despite the importance of cultural change for business transformation, organizational culture has largely gone unnoticed in community pharmacy practice research. To perform an organizational culture gap analysis in 6 New Zealand community pharmacies. Mean scores from a cultural rating survey (n=47) were calculated for 8 cultural clusters and mapped onto a typical and a beneficial pattern match (ladder diagram) for each case site. These ladder diagrams provide an understanding of the gap between the 2 ratings based on the gradient of the lines joining cultural clusters-the rungs of the ladder. Software can be used to generate a Pearson correlation describing the strength of the relationship between the typical and beneficial ratings. Eight cultural clusters were mapped: "leadership and staff management"; "valuing each other and the team"; "free-thinking, fun and, open to challenge"; "trusted behavior"; "customer relations"; "focus on external integration"; "provision of systematic advice"; and the "embracing of innovation." Analysis suggested a high level of correlation between the means of the typical and beneficial ratings. Although the variance between average ratings might be quite small, the relative difference can still be meaningful to participants in the cultural setting. The diagrams suggest a requirement for external integration, the provision of systematic advice, and the embracing of innovation to become more typical in most pharmacies. Trusted behavior is the most typical and most beneficial cultural dimension in most pharmacies, whereas valuing each other and the team is the least beneficial. Gaps in organizational culture have been identified through the use of a rating survey. The dimensions of focus on external integration, providing systematic advice, and embracing

An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

2016-05-01

Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed.

Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn

The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra (DITS): 2nd post-mortem analysis campaign and fuel retention in the gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dittmar, T.; Tsitrone, E.; Pegourie, B.; Cadez, I.; Pelicon, P.; Gauthier, E.; Languille, P.; Likonen, J.; Litnovsky, A.; Markelj, S.; Martin, C.; Mayer, M.; Pascal, J.-Y.; Pardanaud, C.; Philipps, V.; Roth, J.; Roubin, P.; Vavpetic, P.

2011-01-01

A dedicated study on fuel retention has been launched in Tore Supra, which includes a D wall-loading campaign and the dismantling of the main limiter (Deuterium Inventory in Tore Supra, DITS project). This paper presents new results from a second post-mortem analysis campaign on 40 tiles with special emphasis on the D retention in the gaps. SIMS analysis reveals that only 1/3 of the thickness of deposits in the plasma shadowed zones are due to the DITS wall-loading campaign. As pre-DITS deposits contain less D than DITS deposits, the contribution of DITS to the D inventory is about 30-50%. The new estimate for the total amount of D retained in the Tore Supra limiter is 1.7 x 10 24 atoms, close to the previous estimate, with the gap surfaces contributing about 33%. NRA measurements show a stepped decrease of D along the gap with strong asymmetries between different gap orientations.

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1991-01-01

textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

2006-01-01

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

Spatio-temporal gap analysis of OBIS-SEAMAP project data: assessment and way forward.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Connie Y Kot

Full Text Available The OBIS-SEAMAP project has acquired and served high-quality marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle data to the public since its inception in 2002. As data accumulated, spatial and temporal biases resulted and a comprehensive gap analysis was needed in order to assess coverage to direct data acquisition for the OBIS-SEAMAP project and for taxa researchers should true gaps in knowledge exist. All datasets published on OBIS-SEAMAP up to February 2009 were summarized spatially and temporally. Seabirds comprised the greatest number of records, compared to the other two taxa, and most records were from shipboard surveys, compared to the other three platforms. Many of the point observations and polyline tracklines were located in northern and central Atlantic and the northeastern and central-eastern Pacific. The Southern Hemisphere generally had the lowest representation of data, with the least number of records in the southern Atlantic and western Pacific regions. Temporally, records of observations for all taxa were the lowest in fall although the number of animals sighted was lowest in the winter. Oceanographic coverage of observations varied by platform for each taxa, which showed that using two or more platforms represented habitat ranges better than using only one alone. Accessible and published datasets not already incorporated do exist within spatial and temporal gaps identified. Other related open-source data portals also contain data that fill gaps, emphasizing the importance of dedicated data exchange. Temporal and spatial gaps were mostly a result of data acquisition effort, development of regional partnerships and collaborations, and ease of field data collection. Future directions should include fostering partnerships with researchers in the Southern Hemisphere while targeting datasets containing species with limited representation. These results can facilitate prioritizing datasets needed to be represented and for planning research for

Designing a Qualitative Data Collection Strategy (QDCS) for Africa - Phase 1: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader Dominick E...Strategy (QDCS) for Africa – Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa Ashley N. Bybee , Project Leader...Africa Phase I: A Gap Analysis of Existing Models, Simulations, and Tools Relating to Africa June 2012 Authors: Dr. Ashley Bybee , Project Lead Dr

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

2007-01-01

We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

Gold nanoparticle-mediated (GNOME) laser perforation: a new method for a high-throughput analysis of gap junction intercellular coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Begandt, Daniela; Bader, Almke; Antonopoulos, Georgios C; Schomaker, Markus; Kalies, Stefan; Meyer, Heiko; Ripken, Tammo; Ngezahayo, Anaclet

2015-10-01

The present report evaluates the advantages of using the gold nanoparticle-mediated laser perforation (GNOME LP) technique as a computer-controlled cell optoperforation to introduce Lucifer yellow (LY) into cells in order to analyze the gap junction coupling in cell monolayers. To permeabilize GM-7373 endothelial cells grown in a 24 multiwell plate with GNOME LP, a laser beam of 88 μm in diameter was applied in the presence of gold nanoparticles and LY. After 10 min to allow dye uptake and diffusion through gap junctions, we observed a LY-positive cell band of 179 ± 8 μm width. The presence of the gap junction channel blocker carbenoxolone during the optoperforation reduced the LY-positive band to 95 ± 6 μm. Additionally, a forskolin-related enhancement of gap junction coupling, recently found using the scrape loading technique, was also observed using GNOME LP. Further, an automatic cell imaging and a subsequent semi-automatic quantification of the images using a java-based ImageJ-plugin were performed in a high-throughput sequence. Moreover, the GNOME LP was used on cells such as RBE4 rat brain endothelial cells, which cannot be mechanically scraped as well as on three-dimensionally cultivated cells, opening the possibility to implement the GNOME LP technique for analysis of gap junction coupling in tissues. We conclude that the GNOME LP technique allows a high-throughput automated analysis of gap junction coupling in cells. Moreover this non-invasive technique could be used on monolayers that do not support mechanical scraping as well as on cells in tissue allowing an in vivo/ex vivo analysis of gap junction coupling.

Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

2016-01-01

The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

2000-01-01

The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

[Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

2017-08-15

Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Funding gap for immunization across 94 low- and middle-income countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozawa, Sachiko; Grewal, Simrun; Portnoy, Allison; Sinha, Anushua; Arilotta, Richard; Stack, Meghan L; Brenzel, Logan

2016-12-07

Novel vaccine development and production has given rise to a growing number of vaccines that can prevent disease and save lives. In order to realize these health benefits, it is essential to ensure adequate immunization financing to enable equitable access to vaccines for people in all communities. This analysis estimates the full immunization program costs, projected available financing, and resulting funding gap for 94 low- and middle-income countries over five years (2016-2020). Vaccine program financing by country governments, Gavi, and other development partners was forecasted for vaccine, supply chain, and service delivery, based on an analysis of comprehensive multi-year plans together with a series of scenario and sensitivity analyses. Findings indicate that delivery of full vaccination programs across 94 countries would result in a total funding gap of $7.6 billion (95% uncertainty range: $4.6-$11.8 billion) over 2016-2020, with the bulk (98%) of the resources required for routine immunization programs. More than half (65%) of the resources to meet this funding gap are required for service delivery at $5.0 billion ($2.7-$8.4 billion) with an additional $1.1 billion ($0.9-$2.7 billion) needed for vaccines and $1.5 billion ($1.1-$2.0 billion) for supply chain. When viewed as a percentage of total projected costs, the funding gap represents 66% of projected supply chain costs, 30% of service delivery costs, and 9% of vaccine costs. On average, this funding gap corresponds to 0.2% of general government expenditures and 2.3% of government health expenditures. These results suggest greater need for country and donor resource mobilization and funding allocation for immunizations. Both service delivery and supply chain are important areas for further resource mobilization. Further research on the impact of advances in service delivery technology and reductions in vaccine prices beyond this decade would be important for efficient investment decisions for

Support System Model for Value based Group Decision on Roof System Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christiono Utomo

2011-02-01

Full Text Available A group decision support system is required on a value-based decision because there are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. It is to enable each decision-maker to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with other decision-makers. Stakeholder of multi-criteria decision making problems usually evaluates the alternative solution from different perspective, making it possible to have a dominant solution among the alternatives. Each stakeholder needs to identify the goals that can be optimized and those that can be compromised in order to reach an agreement with other stakeholders. This paper presents group decision model involving three decision-makers on the selection of suitable system for a building’s roof. The objective of the research is to find an agreement options model and coalition algorithms for multi person decision with two main preferences of value which are function and cost. The methodology combines value analysis method using Function Analysis System Technique (FAST; Life Cycle Cost analysis, group decision analysis method based on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP in a satisfying options, and Game theory-based agent system to develop agreement option and coalition formation for the support system. The support system bridges theoretical gap between automated design in construction domain and automated negotiation in information technology domain by providing a structured methodology which can lead to systematic support system and automated negotiation. It will contribute to value management body of knowledge as an advanced method for creativity and analysis phase, since the practice of this knowledge is teamwork based. In the case of roof system selection, it reveals the start of the first negotiation round. Some of the solutions are not an option because no individual stakeholder or coalition of stakeholders desires to select it. The result indicates

Stress analysis of disconnected structures in contact through finite element gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadter, J.T.; Weiss, R.O.

1976-07-01

A numerical procedure is presented for analyzing thermal stress problems of disconnected structures in contact across separations or gaps. The new procedure is called SAASGAPS, an adaptation of the basic SAAS III computer program. The SAAS program uses the finite element method and allows analyses of plane and axisymmetric bodies with temperature dependent material properties, subject to thermal and mechanical loads. A secant modulus approach with a bilinear stress-strain curve is used for elastic-plastic problems. The SAASGAPS version contains all of the features of the original SAAS program. A special gap element is used together with a stress invariance principle to model the contact process. The iterative procedure implemented in SAASGAPS is described. Results are discussed for five problems involving frictionless contact. Two of these problems are associated with the thermal stress analysis of the heat shield for the Multi-Hundred Watt Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator. Input instructions for the program are described in an appendix

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

The gender health gap in China: A decomposition analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hao; Bago d'Uva, Teresa; van Doorslaer, Eddy

2015-07-01

Around the world, and in spite of their higher life expectancy, women tend to report worse health than men until old age. Explanations for this gender gap in self-perceived health may be different in China than in other countries due to the traditional phenomenon of son preference. We examine several possible reasons for the gap using the Chinese SAGE data. We first rule out differential reporting by gender as a possible explanation, exploiting information on anchoring vignettes in eight domains of health functioning. Decomposing the gap in general self-assessed health, we find that about 31% can be explained by socio-demographic factors, most of all by discrimination against women in education in the 20th century. A more complete specification including chronic conditions and health functioning fully explains the remainder of the gap (about 69%). Adding chronic conditions and health functioning also explains at least two thirds of the education contribution, suggesting how education may affect health. In particular, women's higher rates of arthritis, angina and eye diseases make the largest contributions to the gender health gap, by limiting mobility, increasing pain and discomfort, and causing sleep problems and a feeling of low energy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physicians' intentions and use of three patient decision aids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitchell Susan L

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision aids are evidence based tools that assist patients in making informed values-based choices and supplement the patient-clinician interaction. While there is evidence to show that decision aids improve key indicators of patients' decision quality, relatively little is known about physicians' acceptance of decision aids or factors that influence their decision to use them. The purpose of this study was to describe physicians' perceptions of three decision aids, their expressed intent to use them, and their subsequent use of them. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of random samples of Canadian respirologists, family physicians, and geriatricians. Three decision aids representing a range of health decisions were evaluated. The survey elicited physicians' opinions on the characteristics of the decision aid and their willingness to use it. Physicians who indicated a strong likelihood of using the decision aid were contacted three months later regarding their actual use of the decision aid. Results Of the 580 eligible physicians, 47% (n = 270 returned completed questionnaires. More than 85% of the respondents felt the decision aid was well developed and that it presented the essential information for decision making in an understandable, balanced, and unbiased manner. A majority of respondents (>80% also felt that the decision aid would guide patients in a logical way, preparing them to participate in decision making and to reach a decision. Fewer physicians ( Conclusion Despite strong support for the format, content, and quality of patient decision aids, and physicians' stated intentions to adopt them into clinical practice, most did not use them within three months of completing the survey. There is a wide gap between intention and behaviour. Further research is required to study the determinants of this intention-behaviour gap and to develop interventions aimed at barriers to physicians' use of decision aids.

In-Situ Burn Gaps Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-01

This Report) UNCLAS//Public 20. Security Class (This Page) UNCLAS//Public 21. No of Pages 76 22. Price UNCLAS//Public | CG-926 RDC | Merrick...surveillance and spotting techniques/equipment to keep responders in the heaviest oil concentrations where their operation to skim , burn, or disperse...Offshore Oil Skim And Burn System For Use With Vessels Of Opportunity. UNCLAS//Public | CG-926 RDC | Merrick, et al. Public | June 2015 In-Situ Burn Gaps

GAP Analysis. Bulletin Number 11

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

dynamics into ecotoxicology . Pages 281-317 in O.E. Rhodes, Jr., R.K. Chesser, and M.H. Smith, editors. Population dynamics in ecological space and time...current stewardship chapter of the GAP handbook states that ... human-induced barren, cultivated exotic-dominated, or ar- "...the process of categorizing...least some level of protection, very sible. The initial data used in developing the map was remotely little of our scrub/shrub, grassland, or cultivated

Social network analysis and supply chain management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Rodríguez Rodríguez

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with social network analysis and how it could be integrated within supply chain management from a decision-making point of view. Even though the benefits of using social analysis have are widely accepted at both academic and industry/services context, there is still a lack of solid frameworks that allow decision-makers to connect the usage and obtained results of social network analysis – mainly both information and knowledge flows and derived results- with supply chain management objectives and goals. This paper gives an overview of social network analysis, the main social network analysis metrics, supply chain performance and, finally, it identifies how future frameworks could close the gap and link the results of social network analysis with the supply chain management decision-making processes.

Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

1996-01-01

Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

2004-01-01

Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

A PC microsimulation of a gap acceptance model for turning left at a T-junction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaap, Nina; Dijck, T.; van Arem, Bart; Morsink, Peter L.J.

2009-01-01

Vehicles are controlled by sub-behavioral models in a microsimulation model, this includes the gap acceptance model where the decision about how to cross a junction is made. The critical gap in these models must serve as a threshold value to accept or reject the space between two successive vehicles

Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2018-01-01

All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

An Equilibrium Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

This paper develops a theory of the gender wage gap. In a general equilibrium model, spouses devide their labor between a formal sector and a home sector. Due to indivisibility effects, productivity of labor in the formal sector is negatively related to labor used in the home; at the same time...... labor inputs are complementary in home production. We show that initial beliefs about the gender wage gap are self-fulfilling, and a central result is multiplicity of equilibria. Spouses allocate their labor equally, if they expect to earn the same wage rates, which ex post reinforces equal wage rates......; whereas they allocate their labor differently, if they expect to earn different wage rates. The latter situation manifests itself in a gender wage gap. By use of numerical examples, we show that welfare is highest when spouses allocate labor equally. We relate this finding to policy recommendations...

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svenja eSimon

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

An analysis of signal characteristics due to coil-gap variation of ECT bobbin probe for steam generation tube

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nam, Min Woo; Cho, Chan Hee; Jee, Dong Hyun; Jung, Jee Hong; Lee, Hee Jong

2006-01-01

The bobbin probe technique is basically one of the important ECT methods for the steam generator tube integrity assesment that is practiced during each plant outage. The bobbin probe is one of the essential components which consist of the whole ECT examination system, and provides us a decisive data for the evaluation of tube integrity in compliance with acceptance criteria described in specific procedures. The selection of examination probe is especially important because the quality of acquired ECT data is determined by the probe design characteristics, geometry and operation frequencies, and has an important effect on examination results. In this study, the relationship between electric characteristic changes and differential coil gap variation has been investigated to optimize the ECT signal characteristics of the bobbin probe. With the results from this study, we have elucidated that the optimum coil gap is 1.2 - 1.6 mm that give the best result for O.D. volumetric defects in ASME calibration standards.

Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

2011-01-01

Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

Research on the psychological gap, personality and achievement of in-school youth based on regression analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhou

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Although our society is in rapid development, the psychological problems among in-school university students are increasingly obvious. According to this problem, this thesis applied the Psychological Gap Scale made by Caixia Ma with EPQ and AMS, and made random questionnaire survey among 400 students in a comprehensive university. The survey found out that the average scores of all psychological gap dimensions exceeded the critical value 3, showing most students in that university have psychological gap. Their personality stability, introversion and extroversion are all above the national norm level while their stubbornness is lower than it. Besides, the students’ motivation in pursuing success is stronger than their motivation in avoiding failure. In the last part, this thesis reached the conclusion that personality leaves a great impact in the students’ psychology through regression analysis model and study of the quantitative relations among personality, achievement and psychological gap.

A Gap Analysis of Employee Satisfaction within the National Parks: Anuenue National Park

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Bryan Daniel Kwai Sun

2014-01-01

Utilizing Clark and Estes' (2008) Gap Analysis Model, the purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge, motivation, and organization causes of and solutions for low employee satisfaction ratings at one particular park, referred to by its pseudonym, Anuenue (Hawaiian word for "Rainbow," and pronounced "Ah-noo-ay-noo-ay")…

Influence of an Intermediate Option on the Description-Experience Gap and Information Search.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Neha; Debnath, Shoubhik; Dutt, Varun

2018-01-01

Research shows that people tend to overweight small probabilities in description and underweight them in experience, thereby leading to a different pattern of choices between description and experience; a phenomenon known as the Description-Experience (DE) gap. However, little is known on how the addition of an intermediate option and contextual framing influences the DE gap and people's search strategies. This paper tests the effects of an intermediate option and contextual framing on the DE gap and people's search strategies, where problems require search for information before a consequential choice. In the first experiment, 120 participants made choice decisions across investment problems that differed in the absence or presence of an intermediate option. Results showed that adding an intermediate option did not reduce the DE gap on the maximizing option across a majority of problems. There were a large majority of choices for the intermediate option. Furthermore, there was an increase in switching between options due to the presence of the intermediate option. In the second experiment, 160 participants made choice decisions in problems like those presented in experiment 1; however, problems lacked the investment framing. Results replicated findings from the first experiment and showed a similar DE gap on the maximizing option in a majority of problems in both the absence and presence of the intermediate option. Again, there were a large majority of choices for the intermediate option. Also, there was an increase in switching between options due to the presence of the intermediate option. Meta-analyses revealed that the absence or presence of the intermediate option created certain differences in the strength of frequency and recency processes. Also, a single natural-mean heuristic model was able to account for the experimental results across both experiments. We discuss implications of our findings to consequential decisions made after information search.

Influence of an Intermediate Option on the Description-Experience Gap and Information Search

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neha Sharma

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Research shows that people tend to overweight small probabilities in description and underweight them in experience, thereby leading to a different pattern of choices between description and experience; a phenomenon known as the Description-Experience (DE gap. However, little is known on how the addition of an intermediate option and contextual framing influences the DE gap and people’s search strategies. This paper tests the effects of an intermediate option and contextual framing on the DE gap and people’s search strategies, where problems require search for information before a consequential choice. In the first experiment, 120 participants made choice decisions across investment problems that differed in the absence or presence of an intermediate option. Results showed that adding an intermediate option did not reduce the DE gap on the maximizing option across a majority of problems. There were a large majority of choices for the intermediate option. Furthermore, there was an increase in switching between options due to the presence of the intermediate option. In the second experiment, 160 participants made choice decisions in problems like those presented in experiment 1; however, problems lacked the investment framing. Results replicated findings from the first experiment and showed a similar DE gap on the maximizing option in a majority of problems in both the absence and presence of the intermediate option. Again, there were a large majority of choices for the intermediate option. Also, there was an increase in switching between options due to the presence of the intermediate option. Meta-analyses revealed that the absence or presence of the intermediate option created certain differences in the strength of frequency and recency processes. Also, a single natural-mean heuristic model was able to account for the experimental results across both experiments. We discuss implications of our findings to consequential decisions made after

Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

2013-10-01

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

An Equilibrium Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap

OpenAIRE

Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

2006-01-01

This paper develops a theory of the gender wage gap. In a general equilibrium model, spouses devide their labor between a formal sector and a home sector. Due to indivisibility effects, productivity of labor in the formal sector is negatively related to labor used in the home; at the same time labor inputs are complementary in home production. We show that initial beliefs about the gender wage gap are self-fulfilling, and a central result is multiplicity of equilibria. Spouses allocate their ...

A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

2013-01-01

To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

2015-01-01

Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

Gap analysis and conservation network for freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaowen, Li; Haijin, Zhuge; Li, Mengdi

2013-01-01

The Central Yangtze Ecoregion contains a large area of internationally important freshwater wetlands and supports a huge number of endangered waterbirds; however, these unique wetlands and the biodiversity they support are under the constant threats of human development pressures, and the prevailing conservation strategies generated based on the local scale cannot adequately be used as guidelines for ecoregion-based conservation initiatives for Central Yangtze at the broad scale. This paper aims at establishing and optimizing an ecological network for freshwater wetland conservation in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion based on large-scale gap analysis. A group of focal species and GIS-based extrapolation technique were employed to identify the potential habitats and conservation gaps, and the optimized conservation network was then established by combining existing protective system and identified conservation gaps. Our results show that only 23.49% of the potential habitats of the focal species have been included in the existing nature reserves in the Central Yangtze Ecoregion. To effectively conserve over 80% of the potential habitats for the focal species by optimizing the existing conservation network for the freshwater wetlands in Central Yangtze Ecoregion, it is necessary to establish new wetland nature reserves in 22 county units across Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces.

Effects of stress on decisions under uncertainty: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Starcke, Katrin; Brand, Matthias

2016-09-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 142(9) of Psychological Bulletin (see record 2016-39486-001). It should have been reported that the inverted u-shaped relationship between cortisol stress responses and decision-making performance was only observed in female, but not in male participants as suggested by the study by van den Bos, Harteveld, and Stoop (2009). Corrected versions of the affected sentences are provided.] The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to quantify the effects that stress has on decisions made under uncertainty. We hypothesized that stress increases reward seeking and risk taking through alterations of dopamine firing rates and reduces executive control by hindering optimal prefrontal cortex functioning. In certain decision situations, increased reward seeking and risk taking is dysfunctional, whereas in others, this is not the case. We also assumed that the type of stressor plays a role. In addition, moderating variables are analyzed, such as the hormonal stress response, the time between stress onset and decisions, and the participants' age and gender. We included studies in the meta-analysis that investigated decision making after a laboratory stress-induction versus a control condition (k = 32 datasets, N = 1829 participants). A random-effects model revealed that overall, stress conditions lead to decisions that can be described as more disadvantageous, more reward seeking, and more risk taking than nonstress conditions (d = .17). In those situations in which increased reward seeking and risk taking is disadvantageous, stress had significant effects (d = .26), whereas in other situations, no effects were observed (d = .01). Effects were observed under processive stressors (d = .19), but not under systemic ones (d = .09). Moderation analyses did not reveal any significant results. We concluded that stress deteriorates overall decision-making performance through the mechanisms proposed. The effects differ

Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

2017-11-01

Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

Minding the Gap: Investing in a Skilled Manufacturing Workforce

Science.gov (United States)

Richard, Alan

2015-01-01

Advanced manufacturing is growing and thriving in the United States. Companies are in great need of reliable employees who can communicate well, effectively make decisions, and are interested in long-term careers with opportunity for advancement. Employers have identified a need for a more robust talent pipeline to narrow America's skills gap--a…

Understanding Decision-Making in Specialized Domestic Violence Courts: Can Contemporary Theoretical Frameworks Help Guide These Decisions?

Science.gov (United States)

Pinchevsky, Gillian M

2016-05-22

This study fills a gap in the literature by exploring the utility of contemporary courtroom theoretical frameworks-uncertainty avoidance, causal attribution, and focal concerns-for explaining decision-making in specialized domestic violence courts. Using data from two specialized domestic violence courts, this study explores the predictors of prosecutorial and judicial decision-making and the extent to which these factors are congruent with theoretical frameworks often used in studies of court processing. Findings suggest that these theoretical frameworks only partially help explain decision-making in the courts under study. A discussion of the findings and implications for future research is provided. © The Author(s) 2016.

Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

2017-01-01

Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

[HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

Science.gov (United States)

Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

2015-09-01

Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-22

... Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The..., organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's...

Clinical decision support must be useful, functional is not enough

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kortteisto, Tiina; Komulainen, Jorma; Mäkelä, Marjukka

2012-01-01

the use of computer-based clinical decision support (eCDS) in primary care and how different professional groups experience it. Our aim was to describe specific reasons for using or not using eCDS among primary care professionals. METHODS: The setting was a Finnish primary health care organization with 48......ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Health information technology, particularly electronic decision support systems, can reduce the existing gap between evidence-based knowledge and health care practice but professionals have to accept and use this information. Evidence is scant on which features influence...... professionals receiving patient-specific guidance at the point of care. Multiple data (focus groups, questionnaire and spontaneous feedback) were analyzed using deductive content analysis and descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The content of the guidance is a significant feature of the primary care professional...

SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

2009-01-01

Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

Gap Analysis between Students' Perceptions and Expectations of Quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Abbasian

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Backgrounds and Objectives: Assessing the educational services provided for students and determining the gap between the current status and the expected status can pave the way for developing programs to promote the quality of educational services. This study was performed aiming at determining the quality of educational services in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences in 2010.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 274 students of Shahroud University of Medical Sciences were selected by random sampling method. The data were collected using SERVQUAL standard questionnaire. The 27-question questionnaire included two sections of demographic data and five-dimension educational services quality, which was completed as self-administered. The data were analyzed through independent samples t-test, paired samples t-test, and one-way ANOVA.Results: There were quality gaps in all dimensions of educational services quality and the statements to assess them. The biggest quality gap was in the responsiveness dimension (-1.45, and the lowest gap was in the reliability dimension (-1.14. The mean gap scores in female students were higher than male students in all five dimensions of educational services quality, and this difference were statistically significant (p<0.001.Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the students’ expectations are not fulfilled in all service dimensions. Therefore, responsiveness, customer-orientation, improvement of work processes and physical spaces, and paying attention to other dimensions could play a key role in promoting the quality of educational services.

Flow Mode Magnetorheological Dampers with an Eccentric Gap

OpenAIRE

Young-Tai Choi; Norman M. Wereley

2014-01-01

This paper analyzes flow mode magnetorheological (MR) dampers with an eccentric annular gap (i.e., a nonuniform annular gap). To this end, an MR damper analysis for an eccentric annular gap is constructed based on approximating the eccentric annular gap using a rectangular duct with a variable gap, as well as a Bingham-plastic constitutive model of the MR fluid. Performance of flow mode MR dampers with an eccentric gap was assessed analytically using both field-dependent damping force and dam...

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-01-01

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important

Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

2017-08-16

The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

2008-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

A Distributional Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap in Bangladesh

OpenAIRE

Salma Ahmed; Pushkar Maitra

2011-01-01

This paper decomposes the gender wage gap along the entire wage distribution into an endowment effect and a discrimination effect, taking into account possible selection into full-time employment. Applying a new decomposition approach to the Bangladesh Labour Force Survey (LFS) data we find that women are paid less than men every where on the wage distribution and the gap is higher at the lower end of the distribution. Discrimination against women is the primary determinant of the wage gap. W...

Skill gap analysis and training needs in Indian aerospace industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Premkumar Balaraman

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The main objective of the paper is on assessing the global aerospace industry as well as Indian scenario, and attempts to assess the skill gaps and training needs of Indian aerospace industry.  Design/methodology/approach: The study is qualitative in nature, and employs wide array of qualitative tools which includes desktop study, focus group interviews and secondary sources of information. Around 10 focus groups were used in the study, with each focus group having a minimum of 6 members of experts in the aerospace and allied industries. The study evolved into a 2 staged one, with the first study elucidating the growing importance and potential of aerospace industry, justifying the significance to take forward the second part of the study. And the second study specifically focuses on skill gaps and training needs. Findings and Originality/value: The Study yields varied results on existing generic expectations of aerospace industry, specific needs of aerospace industry, identification of aerospace job categories unique to aerospace industry, key issues of training in Indian scenario and recommendations. The paper in summary reflects the current scenario of aerospace industry potentials for India and its likely impact on skills gap and training needs. Practical implications: Skills gap is a significant gap between an organization’s current capabilities and the skills it needs to achieve its goals. As a number of Global forecasts project, India as an emerging aviation market, the skill gaps in this sector is predicted to be huge and necessitates the study on assessing the skill gaps and its allied training needs. Originality/value: The Study is highly original and first one of its kind in reflecting the current situation of the skills gap and training needs in Indian Aerospace industry. The focus group interviews were conducted with the experts at various levels in the industyr without any bias yielding valid and realtime data for the

Perioperative and ICU Healthcare Analytics within a Veterans Integrated System Network: a Qualitative Gap Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mudumbai, Seshadri; Ayer, Ferenc; Stefanko, Jerry

2017-08-01

Health care facilities are implementing analytics platforms as a way to document quality of care. However, few gap analyses exist on platforms specifically designed for patients treated in the Operating Room, Post-Anesthesia Care Unit, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU). As part of a quality improvement effort, we undertook a gap analysis of an existing analytics platform within the Veterans Healthcare Administration. The objectives were to identify themes associated with 1) current clinical use cases and stakeholder needs; 2) information flow and pain points; and 3) recommendations for future analytics development. Methods consisted of semi-structured interviews in 2 phases with a diverse set (n = 9) of support personnel and end users from five facilities across a Veterans Integrated Service Network. Phase 1 identified underlying needs and previous experiences with the analytics platform across various roles and operational responsibilities. Phase 2 validated preliminary feedback, lessons learned, and recommendations for improvement. Emerging themes suggested that the existing system met a small pool of national reporting requirements. However, pain points were identified with accessing data in several information system silos and performing multiple manual validation steps of data content. Notable recommendations included enhancing systems integration to create "one-stop shopping" for data, and developing a capability to perform trends analysis. Our gap analysis suggests that analytics platforms designed for surgical and ICU patients should employ approaches similar to those being used for primary care patients.

Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

2017-01-01

A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

The utility of environmental exergy analysis for decision making in energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, Adam P.; Edwards, Chris F.

2013-01-01

The analysis framework discussed and employed in this paper utilizes the recent recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy to provide a fundamental basis for valuing environmental interactions independent from their secondary impacts. The framework is comprised of two separate components: (1) environmental exergy analysis and (2) anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. Environmental exergy analysis is based on fundamental thermodynamic principles and analysis techniques. It extends the principles of technical exergy analysis to the environment in order to quantify the location, magnitudes, and types of environmental impact—state change, alteration of natural transfers, and destruction change. Anthropocentric sensitivity analysis is based on the concepts of anthropocentric value and anthropocentric sensitivity. It enables the results of environmental exergy analysis to be interpreted for decision making, but at the expense of introducing some subjectivity into the framework. A key attribute of the framework is its ability to evaluate the environmental performance of energy systems on a level playing field, regardless of the specifics of the systems—i.e., resources consumed, products and by-products produced, or system size and time scale. The utility of the analysis framework for decision making is demonstrated in this paper through application to three example energy systems. - Highlights: ► Utilizes the recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy. ► Combines environmental exergy analysis and anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. ► Evaluates/compares environmental performance of systems on a level playing field. ► Independence from the system specifics—resources, by-products, sizes, time scales. ► Utility for decision making is demonstrated using real and notional energy systems

Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest

Science.gov (United States)

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Yakov Ben-Haim; William D. Smith

2010-01-01

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads...

Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

Emotion-affected decision making in human simulation

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Y; Kang, J; Wright, D K

2006-01-01

Human modelling is an interdisciplinary research field. The topic, emotion-affected decision making, was originally a cognitive psychology issue, but is now recognized as an important research direction for both computer science and biomedical modelling. The main aim of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and bioengineering in emotion-affected decision making. The work is based on Ortony's theory of emotions and bounded rationality theory, and attempts to connect the...

Reproductive decision-making in a macro-micro perspective: A conceptual framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.; Philipov, D.; Ajzen, I.; Philipov, D.; Liefbroer, A.C.; Klobas, J.E.

2015-01-01

This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international

Gap processing for adaptive maximal poisson-disk sampling

KAUST Repository

Yan, Dongming; Wonka, Peter

2013-01-01

In this article, we study the generation of maximal Poisson-disk sets with varying radii. First, we present a geometric analysis of gaps in such disk sets. This analysis is the basis for maximal and adaptive sampling in Euclidean space and on manifolds. Second, we propose efficient algorithms and data structures to detect gaps and update gaps when disks are inserted, deleted, moved, or when their radii are changed.We build on the concepts of regular triangulations and the power diagram. Third, we show how our analysis contributes to the state-of-the-art in surface remeshing. © 2013 ACM.

Gap processing for adaptive maximal poisson-disk sampling

KAUST Repository

Yan, Dongming

2013-10-17

In this article, we study the generation of maximal Poisson-disk sets with varying radii. First, we present a geometric analysis of gaps in such disk sets. This analysis is the basis for maximal and adaptive sampling in Euclidean space and on manifolds. Second, we propose efficient algorithms and data structures to detect gaps and update gaps when disks are inserted, deleted, moved, or when their radii are changed.We build on the concepts of regular triangulations and the power diagram. Third, we show how our analysis contributes to the state-of-the-art in surface remeshing. © 2013 ACM.

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

2016-01-01

Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

Structure modeling and mutational analysis of gap junction beta 2 ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Yomi

2012-04-03

Apr 3, 2012 ... Three dimensional (3 D) structure is very useful for understanding biological functions. Gap junction beta 2 (GJB2), human gene encoding for gap junction beta 2 protein is involved in ... Research in deafness became real.

Results of the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) Gap Review: Specific Action Team (SAT), Examination of Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for Human Exploration of the Moon

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, C. K.; Eppler, D.; Farrell, W.; Gruener, J.; Lawrence, S.; Pellis, N.; Spudis, P. D.; Stopar, J.; Zeigler, R.; Neal, C;

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

2018-01-19

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

Gap analysis between provisional diagnosis and final diagnosis in government and private teaching hospitals: A record-linked comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Sudeshna; Ray, Krishnangshu; Das, Anup Kumar

2016-01-01

1. To identify the extent of clinical gaps at the context of knowledge, practice and systems. 2. To formulate necessary intervention measures towards bridging the gaps. Comparative, cross-sectional and non-interventional study. It is retrospective, record-based study conducted upon inpatients ( n = 200) of major disciplines of two teaching hospitals. Major outcome variables were to observe the matching and un-matching of final and provisional diagnosis by using ICD-10 criteria. Comparative analysis of specific and selective gaps were estimated in terms of percentage (%). Pilot observation showed the existence of gaps between provisional and final diagnosis in both private and government institution. Both knowledge and skill gaps were evident in caregivers and gap in documentation was existent in medical records. The pilot data is may be an eye-opener to public and private governance systems for understanding and revising the process service planning and service delivery. Necessary intervention measures may be contemplated towards enhancing diagnostic skill of doctors for quality hospital care.

From Population Databases to Research and Informed Health Decisions and Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Machluf, Yossy; Tal, Orna; Navon, Amir; Chaiter, Yoram

2017-01-01

In the era of big data, the medical community is inspired to maximize the utilization and processing of the rapidly expanding medical datasets for clinical-related and policy-driven research. This requires a medical database that can be aggregated, interpreted, and integrated at both the individual and population levels. Policymakers seek data as a lever for wise, evidence-based decision-making and information-driven policy. Yet, bridging the gap between data collection, research, and policymaking, is a major challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose a four-step model: (A) creating a conjoined task force of all relevant parties to declare a national program to promote collaborations; (B) promoting a national digital records project, or at least a network of synchronized and integrated databases, in an accessible transparent manner; (C) creating an interoperative national research environment to enable the analysis of the organized and integrated data and to generate evidence; and (D) utilizing the evidence to improve decision-making, to support a wisely chosen national policy. For the latter purpose, we also developed a novel multidimensional set of criteria to illuminate insights and estimate the risk for future morbidity based on current medical conditions. Used by policymakers, providers of health plans, caregivers, and health organizations, we presume this model will assist transforming evidence generation to support the design of health policy and programs, as well as improved decision-making about health and health care, at all levels: individual, communal, organizational, and national.

Innovative Competency Gap Analysis; A Malaysian Nuclear Research Institute Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muhd Husamuddin A Khalil; Zakaria Taib; Zuraida Zainudin; Munira Shaikh Nasir; Abul Adli Anuar

2015-01-01

Human resource development has become an essential component to the development process of Research and Development institute like Malaysian Nuclear Agency as it relies heavily on a specialized and highly trained work force for its technical capability and sustainability. In this paper, it is urged that human resource development be supported by appropriate survey tools to achieve its one of the most important objective which is to prepare training platforms that follow-through from the systematic competency gap analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to find the competency needs and investigate the competency gaps in Malaysia Nuclear Agency using modified Systematic Assessment of Regulatory Competence Needs for Regulatory Bodies of Nuclear Facilities (SARCoN) tools by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) based on basic, applied and specialized Science and Technology area of expertise. To achieve this purpose, the secretariat identified the appropriate competency statements based on each Division and investigation has been done on all the researchers to find the competency gaps via survey using SARCoN tools. On this ground, it has been concluded that a lot of competency on specialized subject matters need to be systematically analyzed using innovative analytical method that yield 2 important parameters: i. organizational core competencies; ii. Personnel core competencies. From a before and after comparison, it is concluded that the new strategy is better placed to manage the training and educational programme to preserve the sustainability of subject matter experts of nuclear HRD in this organization and Malaysia as a whole. (author)

Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

2017-01-01

This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

2017-01-01

This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

Thermoelastic/plastic analysis of waste-container sleeve: IV. Air gap influence on hole closure. Technical memorandum report (RSI-0019)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pariseau, W.G.

1975-01-01

A thermoelastic/plastic finite element analysis of the influence of an air-gap on hole closure about a waste-container/sleeve assembly emplaced in a typical repository room (SALT/4T Model) indicates that hole closure would be of the order of hundredths of an inch. Acceptable air-gap width is thus governed by the hole size required for emplacement efficiency. A refined mesh analysis and laboratory testing is suggested in order to further explore the possibility of eliminating the engineering necessity of the sleeve

Innovative Solutions for Companies to Reduce Gender Gaps (UK Study Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei ANGHELUTA

2016-06-01

Full Text Available For many years the gender gap has been a complex reality having economic implications and social decisiveness. No matter the percentage recently decreased, we still confront with social discriminations. In this paper we focused on the UK labour market so we developed a case study for a logistics company, using classification of the employees in different pay bands. Based on this study we created a state of the art human resource tool that can be applied worldwide and that help firms to analyse the root causes and to reduce the gender gap.

Flow Mode Magnetorheological Dampers with an Eccentric Gap

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Tai Choi

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes flow mode magnetorheological (MR dampers with an eccentric annular gap (i.e., a nonuniform annular gap. To this end, an MR damper analysis for an eccentric annular gap is constructed based on approximating the eccentric annular gap using a rectangular duct with a variable gap, as well as a Bingham-plastic constitutive model of the MR fluid. Performance of flow mode MR dampers with an eccentric gap was assessed analytically using both field-dependent damping force and damping coefficient, which is the ratio of equivalent viscous field-on damping to field-off damping. In addition, damper capabilities of flow mode MR dampers with an eccentric gap were compared to a concentric gap (i.e., uniform annular gap.

[Approaching the "evidence-practice gap" in pharmaceutical risk management: analysis of healthcare claim data].

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayama, Takeo

2012-01-01

The concept of evidence-based medicine (EBM) has promulgated among healthcare professionals in recent years, on the other hand, the problem of underuse of useful clinical evidence is coming to be important. This is called as evidence-practice gap. The major concern about evidence-practice gap is insufficient implementation of evidence-based effective treatment, however, the perspective can be extended to measures to improve drug safety and prevention of drug related adverse events. First, this article reviews the characteristics of the database of receipt (healthcare claims) and the usefulness for research purpose of pharmacoepidemiology. Second, as the real example of the study on evidence-practice gap by using the receipt database, the case of ergot-derived anti-Parkinson drugs, of which risk of valvulopathy has been identified, is introduced. The receipt analysis showed that more than 70% of Parkinson's disease patients prescribed with cabergoline or pergolide did not undergo echocardiography despite the revision of the product label recommendation. Afterwards, the issues of pharmaceutical risk management and risk communication will be discussed.

[Evidence and Evidence Gaps - an Introduction].

Science.gov (United States)

Dreier, G; Löhler, J

2016-04-01

Treating patients requires the inclusion of existing evidence in any health care decision, to be able to choose the best diagnosis or treatment measure or to make valid prognosis statements for a particular patient in consideration of the physician's own expertise.The basis are clinical trials, the results of which are ideally gathered in systematic reviews, rated, summarized and published. In addition to the GCP (Good Clinical Practice)-compliant planning, conducting and analysis of clinical studies it is essential, that all study results are made publicly available, in order to avoid publication bias. This includes the public registration of planned and discontinued trials. In the last 25 years, the evidence-based medicine (EbM) has increasingly found its way into clinical practice and research. Here EbM is closely associated with the names Archibald Cochrane and David Sackett. In Germany, both the German Cochrane Centre (DCZ) and the network of evidence-based medicine (DNEbM) were established approximately 15 years ago. In the international Cochrane Collaboration clinicians and other scientists like statisticians interdisciplinary work side by side to develop the methods of evidence-based medicine and to address the topics of evidence generation and processing as well as the transfer of knowledge. Challenge: Existing evidence primarily serves doctors to support their decision-making, but is also the basis for providing scientific proof for a health care intervention's benefit to patients and ultimately payers/health insurances. The closure of existing evidence gaps requires substantial human and financial resources, a complex organizational structure and can only succeed with the involvement of clinical and methodological expertise and specific knowledge in the field of clinical research. In addition, the knowledge must be transferred into practice, using journals, guidelines, conferences, databases, information portals with processed evidence and not least the

ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Rybak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Understanding the gender gap in antibiotic prescribing : a cross-sectional analysis of English primary care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smith, David R M; Dolk, F Christiaan K; Smieszek, Timo; Robotham, Julie V; Pouwels, Koen B

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To explore the causes of the gender gap in antibiotic prescribing, and to determine whether women are more likely than men to receive an antibiotic prescription per consultation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of routinely collected electronic medical records from The Health

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

Electron Elevator: Excitations across the Band Gap via a Dynamical Gap State.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, A; Foulkes, W M C; Horsfield, A P; Mason, D R; Schleife, A; Draeger, E W; Correa, A A

2016-01-29

We use time-dependent density functional theory to study self-irradiated Si. We calculate the electronic stopping power of Si in Si by evaluating the energy transferred to the electrons per unit path length by an ion of kinetic energy from 1 eV to 100 keV moving through the host. Electronic stopping is found to be significant below the threshold velocity normally identified with transitions across the band gap. A structured crossover at low velocity exists in place of a hard threshold. An analysis of the time dependence of the transition rates using coupled linear rate equations enables one of the excitation mechanisms to be clearly identified: a defect state induced in the gap by the moving ion acts like an elevator and carries electrons across the band gap.

Bridging the clinician/researcher gap with systemic research: the case for process research, dyadic, and sequential analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Oka, Megan; Whiting, Jason

2013-01-01

In Marriage and Family Therapy (MFT), as in many clinical disciplines, concern surfaces about the clinician/researcher gap. This gap includes a lack of accessible, practical research for clinicians. MFT clinical research often borrows from the medical tradition of randomized control trials, which typically use linear methods, or follow procedures distanced from "real-world" therapy. We review traditional research methods and their use in MFT and propose increased use of methods that are more systemic in nature and more applicable to MFTs: process research, dyadic data analysis, and sequential analysis. We will review current research employing these methods, as well as suggestions and directions for further research. © 2013 American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy.

Gap Acceptance During Lane Changes by Large-Truck Drivers-An Image-Based Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Zhao, Ding; Peng, Huei; Pan, Christopher S

2016-03-01

This paper presents an analysis of rearward gap acceptance characteristics of drivers of large trucks in highway lane change scenarios. The range between the vehicles was inferred from camera images using the estimated lane width obtained from the lane tracking camera as the reference. Six-hundred lane change events were acquired from a large-scale naturalistic driving data set. The kinematic variables from the image-based gap analysis were filtered by the weighted linear least squares in order to extrapolate them at the lane change time. In addition, the time-to-collision and required deceleration were computed, and potential safety threshold values are provided. The resulting range and range rate distributions showed directional discrepancies, i.e., in left lane changes, large trucks are often slower than other vehicles in the target lane, whereas they are usually faster in right lane changes. Video observations have confirmed that major motivations for changing lanes are different depending on the direction of move, i.e., moving to the left (faster) lane occurs due to a slower vehicle ahead or a merging vehicle on the right-hand side, whereas right lane changes are frequently made to return to the original lane after passing.

Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I.

1997-09-01

This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

The Role of Health Care Provider and Partner Decisional Support in Patients' Cancer Treatment Decision-Making Satisfaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer-Wackerly, Angela L; Krieger, Janice L; Rhodes, Nancy D

2017-01-01

Cancer patients rely on multiple sources of support when making treatment decisions; however, most research studies examine the influence of health care provider support while the influence of family member support is understudied. The current study fills this gap by examining the influence of health care providers and partners on decision-making satisfaction. In a cross-sectional study via an online Qualtrics panel, we surveyed cancer patients who reported that they had a spouse or romantic partner when making cancer treatment decisions (n = 479). Decisional support was measured using 5-point, single-item scales for emotional support, informational support, informational-advice support, and appraisal support. Decision-making satisfaction was measured using Holmes-Rovner and colleagues' (1996) Satisfaction With Decision Scale. We conducted a mediated regression analysis to examine treatment decision-making satisfaction for all participants and a moderated mediation analysis to examine treatment satisfaction among those patients offered a clinical trial. Results indicated that partner support significantly and partially mediated the relationship between health care provider support and patients' decision-making satisfaction but that results did not vary by enrollment in a clinical trial. This study shows how and why decisional support from partners affects communication between health care providers and cancer patients.

Bridging the Rural-Urban Literacy Gap in China: A Mediation Analysis of Family Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jingying; Li, Hui; Wang, Dan

2018-01-01

This study examines the effects of family involvement on the literacy gap between rural and urban Chinese primary students via mediation analysis. Altogether, 1080 students in Grades 1, 3, and 5 were randomly sampled from three urban and three rural primary schools from Shandong and Guizhou Provinces, representing eastern and western China,…

Analysis of serum anion gap and osmolal gap in diagnosis and prognosis of acute methanol poisoning: clinical study in 86 patients

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zakharov, S.; Navrátil, Tomáš; Pelclová, D.

2015-01-01

Roč. 146, č. 5 (2015), s. 787-794 ISSN 0026-9247 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP208/12/1645 Institutional support: RVO:61388955 Keywords : serum anion gap * osmolal gap * acute methanol poisoning Subject RIV: CG - Electrochemistry Impact factor: 1.131, year: 2015

Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

Science.gov (United States)

1979-11-01

TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG): An integrated case-control analysis pipeline.

Science.gov (United States)

Pappas, Derek J; Marin, Wesley; Hollenbach, Jill A; Mack, Steven J

2016-03-01

Bridging ImmunoGenomic Data-Analysis Workflow Gaps (BIGDAWG) is an integrated data-analysis pipeline designed for the standardized analysis of highly-polymorphic genetic data, specifically for the HLA and KIR genetic systems. Most modern genetic analysis programs are designed for the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms, but the highly polymorphic nature of HLA and KIR data require specialized methods of data analysis. BIGDAWG performs case-control data analyses of highly polymorphic genotype data characteristic of the HLA and KIR loci. BIGDAWG performs tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, calculates allele frequencies and bins low-frequency alleles for k×2 and 2×2 chi-squared tests, and calculates odds ratios, confidence intervals and p-values for each allele. When multi-locus genotype data are available, BIGDAWG estimates user-specified haplotypes and performs the same binning and statistical calculations for each haplotype. For the HLA loci, BIGDAWG performs the same analyses at the individual amino-acid level. Finally, BIGDAWG generates figures and tables for each of these comparisons. BIGDAWG obviates the error-prone reformatting needed to traffic data between multiple programs, and streamlines and standardizes the data-analysis process for case-control studies of highly polymorphic data. BIGDAWG has been implemented as the bigdawg R package and as a free web application at bigdawg.immunogenomics.org. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AN ANALYSIS ON THE DECISION MODEL OF SMART PLUS INSURANCE PRODUCT PURCHASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fitry Primadona

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this study were 1 to analyze the decision model of Smart Plus insurance product purchase and 2 to determine the criteria, sub-criteria, and alternative priorities in Smart Plus purchase decision model. The methods utilized in the study included a survey and interview (in-depth interview by using an AHP analysis (Analytical Hierarchy Process and processing software of "Expert Choice". The result of the first analysis indicated the four marketing mixes that had been performed (Price, Product, Process, and Place; while the second one showed that the purchase of Smart Plus product is based on the factors with the level of interest as follow: benefit (36.3%, premium (35.7%, membership process (14.6%, and provider (13.4%. The result of the second analysis revealed the important sub-criteria including premium offer, additional benefits, membership card, and temporary certificate from the medical specialist.Keywords: AHP, life insurance, marketing mix, purchase decision

Family decision-making during food buying

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Maria Kümpel

Decision-making during food buying is a joint family activity involving both parents and children. Children manage to achieve a high degree of influence on many decisions, among other things, because they participate actively and help out doing various tasks. These decisions may turn out...... to be a choice of unhealthy food. Many decisions are made at the supermarket or other food shops, and food packaging is often used in the comparison of food products. Only rarely do families use nutritional information on food labels due to several problems in the understanding of these labels; this may result...... in difficulties in distinguishing among healthy and unhealthy food. Both parents and children being active in the decision process may lead to conflicts due to gaps in preference such as between healthy and unhealthy food. Families solve these conflicts via open communication patterns and a use of various...

A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

2016-01-01

The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

[Analysis of several key problems of good agricultural practice (GAP) of Chinese materia medica].

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Guang; Guo, Lan-Ping; Zhou, Xiu-Teng; Huang, Lu-Qi

2016-04-01

This paper reviewed the historical background of the GAP, analyzed the development experience of five Ps (GMP, GLP, GSP, GCP, GAP), analyzed the GAP based on economic theories, and pointed out that the core problem of GAP is ignoring economic laws. Once the GAP, is a process of certification, but neither the GAP announcement could be transformed into signal transmission quality in the product market, nor consumers could recognize the difference between GAP and non-GAP herbs in the terminal market, so manufacturers lack motivation for GAP certification. In this paper, we pointed out, that the GAP certification system should be redesigned under the guidance of economics, third party certification body, supervised by drug administration organization, to certificate GAP as high quality standards, to improve signal transduction mechanism of GAP certification, and to integrate GAP with the market. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-13

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

How big is the physical activity intention-behaviour gap? A meta-analysis using the action control framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, Ryan E; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan

2013-05-01

The physical activity (PA) intention-behaviour gap is a topic of considerable contemporary research, given that most of our models used to understand physical activity suggest that intention is the proximal antecedent of behavioural enactment. The purpose of this study was to quantify the intention-PA gap at public health guidelines with a meta-analysis of the action control framework. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted in July 2012 among five key search engines. This search yielded a total of 2,865 potentially relevant records; of these, 10 studies fulfilled the full eligibility criteria (N = 3,899). Random-effects meta-analysis procedures with correction for sampling bias were employed in the analysis for estimates of non-intenders who subsequently did not engage in physical activity (21%), non-intenders who subsequently performed physical activity (2%), intenders who were not successful at following through with their PA (36%), and successful intenders (42%). The overall intention-PA gap was 46%. These results emphasize the weakness in early intention models for understanding PA and suggest this would be a problem during intervention. Contemporary research that is validating and exploring additional constructs (e.g., self-regulation, automaticity) that augment intention or improving the measurement of motivation seems warranted. What is already known on this subject? Intention is considered the proximal antecedent of behaviour in many popular models. Intention is also an established correlate of physical activity behaviour, yet discordance is considerable in experimental research. What does this study add? This meta-analysis of studies that have assessed concordance/discordance of physical activity intention and behaviour at public health guidelines shows the intention-behaviour gap at 48% and the discordance is from intenders who do not act. The results demonstrate that discordance is not just from extreme levels of

Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sheehan, J. J.

2016-12-01

We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

Degeneracy analysis for a supercell of a photonic crystal and its application to the creation of band gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Liang; Zhuang Fie; He Sailing

2003-01-01

A method is introduced to analyze the degeneracy properties of the band structure of a photonic crystal by making use of supercells. The band structure associated with a supercell of a photonic crystal has degeneracies at the edge of the Brillouin zone if the photonic crystal has some kind of point group symmetry. The E-polarization and H-polarization cases have the same degeneracies for a two-dimensional (2D) photonic crystal. Two theorems on degeneracies in the band structure associated with the supercell are given and proved. These degeneracies can be lifted to create photonic band gaps by changing the translation group symmetry of the photonic crystal (the point group symmetry of the photonic crystal may remain unchanged), which consequently changes the transform matrix between the supercell and the smallest unit cell. The existence of photonic band gaps for many known 2D photonic crystals is explained through the degeneracy analysis. Some structures with large band gaps are also found through the present degeneracy analysis

Equality bias impairs collective decision-making across cultures.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Olsen, Karsten; Zhao, Yuanyuan Aimee; Shi, Zhenhao; Broberg, Kristina; Safavi, Shervin; Han, Shihui; Nili Ahmadabadi, Majid; Frith, Chris D; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Bahrami, Bahador

2015-03-24

We tend to think that everyone deserves an equal say in a debate. This seemingly innocuous assumption can be damaging when we make decisions together as part of a group. To make optimal decisions, group members should weight their differing opinions according to how competent they are relative to one another; whenever they differ in competence, an equal weighting is suboptimal. Here, we asked how people deal with individual differences in competence in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task. We developed a metric for estimating how participants weight their partner's opinion relative to their own and compared this weighting to an optimal benchmark. Replicated across three countries (Denmark, Iran, and China), we show that participants assigned nearly equal weights to each other's opinions regardless of true differences in their competence-even when informed by explicit feedback about their competence gap or under monetary incentives to maximize collective accuracy. This equality bias, whereby people behave as if they are as good or as bad as their partner, is particularly costly for a group when a competence gap separates its members.

Balancing emotion and cognition: a case for decision aiding in conservation efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robyn S

2008-12-01

Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision-making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect-based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision-aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect-based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value-focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision-relevant objectives by making the technical and value-based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect-based decisions. Trade-off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value-based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision-making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect-rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision-making authorities and the decision process.

Analysis of optical band-gap shift in impurity doped ZnO thin films by using nonparabolic conduction band parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Won Mok; Kim, Jin Soo; Jeong, Jeung-hyun; Park, Jong-Keuk; Baik, Young-Jun; Seong, Tae-Yeon

2013-01-01

Polycrystalline ZnO thin films both undoped and doped with various types of impurities, which covered the wide carrier concentration range of 10 16 –10 21 cm −3 , were prepared by magnetron sputtering, and their optical-band gaps were investigated. The experimentally measured optical band-gap shifts were analyzed by taking into account the carrier density dependent effective mass determined by the first-order nonparabolicity approximation. It was shown that the measured shifts in optical band-gaps in ZnO films doped with cationic dopants, which mainly perturb the conduction band, could be well represented by theoretical estimation in which the band-gap widening due to the band-filling effect and the band-gap renormalization due to the many-body effect derived for a weakly interacting electron-gas model were combined and the carrier density dependent effective mass was incorporated. - Highlights: ► Optical band-gaps of polycrystalline ZnO thin films were analyzed. ► Experimental carrier concentration range covered from 10 16 to 10 21 cm −3 . ► Nonparabolic conduction band parameters were used in theoretical analysis. ► The band-filling and the band-gap renormalization effects were considered. ► The measured optical band-gap shifts corresponded well with the calculated ones

A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

Protected area gap analysis of important bird areas in Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sritharan, Shakthi; Burgess, Neil David

2012-01-01

Analyses of gaps in protected area (PA) coverage of species distributions have been carried out extensively for the past two decades, aiming to better locate new PAs and conserve species. In this study, progress to close gaps in the protection of the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) of Tanzania...

An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

1999-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Ran

2002-03-01

A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

Science.gov (United States)

McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

2016-01-01

Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

2010-01-01

Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing

Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Tang Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

"Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

2016-02-01

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-24

... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orient, J.M.

1985-01-01

Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-01-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

Global foot-and-mouth disease research update and gap analysis: 2 - epidemiology, wildlife and economics

Science.gov (United States)

In 2014, the Global Foot-and-mouth disease Research ings in the fields of (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) Alliance (GFRA) conducted a gap analysis of foot-and- economics. Although the three sections, epidemiology, wildlife and economics are presented as separate entities, the fields are ...

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set

Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

OpenAIRE

Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

2009-01-01

This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are quantified, yield gaps evaluated by crop experts, current yield progress by breeding estimated, and different yield projections compared. Results show decreasing yield growth for wheat and rice, but ...

The prototype GAPS (pGAPS) experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mognet, S.A.I.; Aramaki, T.; Bando, N.; Boggs, S.E.; Doetinchem, P. von; Fuke, H.; Gahbauer, F.H.; Hailey, C.J.; Koglin, J.E.; Madden, N.; Mori, K.; Okazaki, S.; Ong, R.A.; Perez, K.M.; Tajiri, G.; Yoshida, T.; Zweerink, J.

2014-01-01

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) experiment is a novel approach for the detection of cosmic ray antiparticles. A prototype GAPS (pGAPS) experiment was successfully flown on a high-altitude balloon in June of 2012. The goals of the pGAPS experiment were: to test the operation of lithium drifted silicon (Si(Li)) detectors at balloon altitudes, to validate the thermal model and cooling concept needed for engineering of a full-size GAPS instrument, and to characterize cosmic ray and X-ray backgrounds. The instrument was launched from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) Taiki Aerospace Research Field in Hokkaido, Japan. The flight lasted a total of 6 h, with over 3 h at float altitude (∼33km). Over one million cosmic ray triggers were recorded and all flight goals were met or exceeded

Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

1993-11-01

The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

OpenAIRE

Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

2012-01-01

Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

Emotion-affected decision making in human simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Y; Kang, J; Wright, D K

2006-01-01

Human modelling is an interdisciplinary research field. The topic, emotion-affected decision making, was originally a cognitive psychology issue, but is now recognized as an important research direction for both computer science and biomedical modelling. The main aim of this paper is to attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and bioengineering in emotion-affected decision making. The work is based on Ortony's theory of emotions and bounded rationality theory, and attempts to connect the emotion process with decision making. A computational emotion model is proposed, and the initial framework of this model in virtual human simulation within the platform of Virtools is presented.

To close the childhood immunization gap, we need a richer understanding of parents' decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Corben, Paul; Leask, Julie

2016-12-01

Vaccination is widely acknowledged as one of the most successful public health interventions globally and in most high-income countries childhood vaccination coverage rates are moderately high. Yet in many instances, immunisation rates remain below aspirational targets and have shown only modest progress toward those targets in recent years, despite concerted efforts to improve uptake. In part, coverage rates reflect individual parents' vaccination attitudes and decisions and, because vaccination decision-making is complex and context-specific, it remains challenging at individual and community levels to assist parents to make positive decisions. Consequently, in the search for opportunities to improve immunisation coverage, there has been a renewed research focus on parents' decision-making. This review provides an overview of the literature surrounding parents' vaccination decision-making, offering suggestions for where efforts to increase vaccination coverage should be targeted and identifying areas for further research.

Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

Gender gap or program gap? Students' negotiations of study practice in a course in electromagnetism

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Staffan; Johansson, Anders

2016-12-01

[This paper is part of the Focused Collection on Gender in Physics.] This study of achievement differences, as reflected by course grades, on a third-semester electromagnetism course at a Swedish research university was motivated by instructor concerns about gender inequalities. Quantitative analysis showed a gender gap in course grades between female and male students for the period of fall 2007 to spring 2013. Dynamics behind this gap were explored through interpretative discourse analysis on interviews of 21 students who had recently passed the course. A recurring pattern was identified in the interviews. Students described studying electromagnetism as either studying to pass or studying to learn. Their choice of practice was influenced by the significance recognized in the course, which primarily was discussed in relation to program affiliation. Students stressed that perceived differences, in their study context, were larger between students affiliated with different programs than between male and female students on the same program. This was supported by quantitative analysis of course grades in relation to study programs, where the grade difference between female and male students on the same program in most cases were not statistically significant. The gender gap in grades for the whole course was related to different achievements on different programs. Programs further from the discipline of physics had lower mean grades and also enrolled a larger fraction of female students. Society-wide gender differences in interest and study choice are reflected in the grades on this single course. These results displace the achievement gap from the level of individuals to that of programs, and the gender gap from a difference in achievement to a difference in study choice. We discuss the implications of this shift of perspective in relation to gender differences for both research and teaching.

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials