World energy: the facts and the future. 2. ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hedley, Don.

1986-01-01

The world energy situation is examined. Since the first edition of the book was written, the 1979 oil price rise has added weight to the argument that the economics of the second half of the twentieth century have been dominated by the economics of the barrel of oil. This book looks at the major fuels available - coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear energy and electricity. Each is considered in turn, looking at the reserves, costs, demand and the prospects for the future. Questions about the fuels discussed in the book include: how far will the price of oil fall, can nuclear power ever gain full public acceptance, can conservation be the 'fifth fuel', when will the development of synthetic fuels and renewable energy sources regain momentum. The energy supply and demand throughout the world is then presented taking each country, or group of countries in turn and considering each fuel. The future is then considered -prospects for synthetic fuels, renewable energy sources, eg wind and solar power and nuclear fusion. 115 tables present the data on which the book is based and its conclusions drawn. (UK)

On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy Eltony, M.

1996-01-01

The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

Oilseeds and vegetable oils in asia: a world of diversity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mittaine Jean-François

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Out of the two dozen countries that constitute what is generally called “Asia”, some are the largest in the world while others are islands with smaller populations. When looking at oilseeds and vegetable oils in the region, one is faced with the same huge diversity which makes it complex to analyze, all the more that statistics are not easily available for many countries. Aside from the large differences in size, the region covers a wide spectrum of diversified climate environments. Asia is also mainly characterized by its huge population which has become largely urban, a key factor leading to the impressive growth of vegetable oil demand in the past 30 years. At an verage of 23.2 kg/year, Asian per capita consumption of oils and fats still remains slightly below the world average of 28.3 kg/capita/year. Therefore, although 53% of the world population is located in Asia, only 45% of world oils and fats is consumed in the region. As detailed in the paper, the world of Asian oilseeds and vegetable oils is highly concentrated on soybeans and palm oil. In spite of a large domestic production in China (12.3 MnT, soybeans are imported in huge quantities, mostly by China (78 MnT, 84% of the region’s imports where more than 28% of world soybeans production is being crushed. Palm oil, the second large commodity consumed in the region, is mainly produced within the region, mostly in Indonesia and Malaysia. So where is the “world of diversity”? Hidden behind those two dominant commodities, practically all of the ten oilseeds constituting the core of the world production are grown in significant quantities in the region while, for vegetable oils, all those of significant importance are produced within the region with the exception of olive oil. The main question that should be kept in mind when reviewing this large regional demand is under what condition will future vegetable oil production be able to meet the expected rise of per capita oils and

Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

2014-01-13

In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

Oil and gas financing by the World Bank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Razavi, Hossein

1995-01-01

The World Bank has developed a flexible oil and gas programme that is structured to meet the changing needs of the sector as they arise. The Bank became prominent in the oil and gas sector after the oil crises of the 1970s, when it began assisting client countries in developing their indigenous energy resources. At the beginning, Bank lending concentrated on exploration and development of hydrocarbon resources where the level of lending expanded to US$1 billion in 1983. This rapid expansion caused some concern that Bank activities might preempt those of the private sector. In response, the Bank imposed in 1984 strict limitations on petroleum exploration and oil production lending. In combination with the perception that future oil demand would be weak, this caused the lending programme to fall off sharply (to US$300 million by 1986). By 1990, the Bank was again moving actively into hydrocarbon sector lending, but then the emphasis was on promoting private sector development and supporting the development of natural gas as a substitute for coal and oil. Bank lending to the sector has been on the increase since 1990; a lending level of about US$1 billion yearly is expected for the second half of the 1990s. In addition to its direct lending, the World Bank facilitates contributions by other financiers through its cofinancing and risk mitigation arrangements. (author)

World oil and gas resources-future production realities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D.

1990-01-01

Welcome to uncertainty was the phrase Jack Schanz used to introduce both layman and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973. In some respects, the authors have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the blindman to describe the elephant. There can be definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper the authors try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that the author's believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties, the authors must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of the commodity in question

Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

2004-01-01

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

Oil futures and spot markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samii, M.V.

1992-01-01

In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

The oil world war

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lafargue, F.

2008-01-01

Since the beginning of the 21. century, a war has started between the USA, China and India. The USA, first oil consuming and importing country in the world, has now to take into account the increasing energy consumption of China and India. China is now, just behind Japan, the third oil importing country and India ranked number seven. From the Gulf of Guinea to the Arabic peninsula, from the Orenoque basin to the Caspian sea banks, Washington, Beijing and New Delhi covet the same oil fields. This rivalry exacerbates the political tensions in many regions of the Earth and already provokes a latent food crisis. This black gold war is changing the World's face and should provoke serious armed conflicts. (J.S.)

Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

OpenAIRE

Liu, Xing

2009-01-01

Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

Structural changes in the world energy supply - adaptations up to current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schuermann, H.J.

1985-03-11

In this analysis of world energy markets in which he pays particular attention to mineral oil, and with a background of world economic problems which have not yet been solved, the author presents a piece of modern economic history in which he also highlights the political aspects of the supply of crude oil. The world-wide contraction in oil consumption which followed two price escalations, has been caused, it is held by structural factors and is therefore of a long-term nature. Of course, in the foreseeable future, oil will easily remain the most important energy-carrier. However, it will be of less importance for Western Europe and Japan than for North America, trading states and developing countries. Nevertheless, diversification should be encouraged as quickly as possible. This does include natural gas still but for the long-term also coal and atomic energy. The author pleads for world-wide trade relations based on coal and gas in order to complement the fully integrated world oil markets. Similarly atomic energy should be developed as quickly as possible.

World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazlioglu, Saban

2011-01-01

The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

2009-01-01

A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

Hubbert's Peak: the Impending World oil Shortage

Science.gov (United States)

Deffeyes, K. S.

2004-12-01

Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis. In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right. Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American.2 None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy. Even the poorest nations need fuel to run irrigation pumps. The industrialized nations will be bidding against one another for the dwindling oil supply. The good news is that we will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ante Nosić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

Status of Oil and Natural Gas in the World and Turkey, and Studies conducted at ITU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onur, Mustafa

2006-01-01

Energy and its appropriate deployment are the most critical of all wealth generating activities, and they are the most important modern indicators of the wealth and poverty of nations. Humankind and energy will merge in an unbreakable bond for the entire future of humankind. Without dispute, the petroleum and natural gas industry is the world's largest energy sector and the second largest of the world's industries. Today, oil and gas account for 61 percent (39% oil and 24% natural gas) of the world's energy consumption. Including coal's 30 percent share, the hydrocarbon mix comprises more than 90 percent of the world's needs. Since the 19th century, the petroleum industry, including exploration, production, transportation (marine+pipeline), refinery, and marketing, have caused world changes, determined destiny of humankind, and generated immense wealth for both producers and users. It is also an accepted fact that the oil and natural gas will continue to be dominating energy sources, particularly as transportation fuels, for the world's energy needs, and will continue to cause world changes during the 21st century, at least for the next 25 years. Regarding Turkey's role in petroleum and natural gas, the figures are as follows: At the end of 2005, the proved oil and natural gas reserves of Turkey are reported as 1.2 million barrels (∼165.4 million tonnes) and 14.3 billion m 3 , respectively. When these figures are compared with the corresponding world's proved oil and natural gas reserves, which are 1.2 trillion barrels and 179.5 trillion m 3 , respectively, it is clear that Turkey's oil and natural gas reserves comprises only a very small portion of the world's corresponding reserves. Approximately only 8% and 3% of Turkey's oil and natural gas consumption are produced from domestic sources. At the end of 2005, Turkey's oil and natural gas productions from its domestic sources are 17 million barrels When considering the current high oil and natural gas prices (�

Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leggett, J

1996-12-31

The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leggett, J.

1995-12-31

The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

The social costs to the US of monopolization of the world oil market, 1972--1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.; Leiby, P.N.

1993-03-01

The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel's ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical ''more competitive'' world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader's judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy's potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oil price shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy's inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US's primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison

Oil turbulence in the next decade. An essay on high oil prices in a supply-constrained world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jesse, J.H.; Van der Linde, C.

2008-06-01

A CIEP analysis of the recent development of demand and supply for crude oil indicates that the mismatch in supply and demand growth could cause tighter oil markets than we already experience today. In the World Energy Outlook 2007, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 'energy crunch'. But what was anticipated to happen in the first part of the next decade has been fast-forwarded to today, more than 5 years earlier, and could shake the very foundation of our energy systems if no action is undertaken. Without exaggeration, the recent developments in the international oil market are ground-breaking: a little over a year ago, in January 2007, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI) traded for USD50 dollar a barrel. Within a year, the price doubled to USD100 per barrel in January 2008 and pushed through to over USD135 in June 2008, against the backdrop of the fresh market supposition about reaching a whopping USD200 per barrel in 2009. If this proves to be true, the world will not only have moved from an 'Oil Demand-led World' to an 'Oil Supply-constrained World' (since 2004) but, more importantly, will then also experience a radical change in the oil price formation. Until recently, the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs. As will be presented in this paper, the current high oil prices are still primarily driven by structural factors that can be well explained without resorting to blaming speculative investors playing the futures market or the low dollar. But if prices are heading towards USD200 a barrel in 12 months' time, or for that matter even to USD150 a barrel, other drivers will gain prominence over marginal costs as the main driver. In that case, OPEC will have accomplished a long-held wish: oil will then be priced at its real value in the Western world (for instance the economic value of mobility for

The World Oil Market: The Search for Balance in the New “Oil” Reality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatjiana A. Malova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of change of the world oil market in the face of new "oil" reality. Factors of formation of new "oil" reality in the global world defined. Scientific background and current state of research of the problem are described. It is shownthat in the Russian and foreign literature the considerable attention is paid to the analysis of dynamics of the quantitative variables characterizing fluctuations and shocks in the oil market. At the same time the search for balance in the new "oil" reality are not considerably investigated yet. The proposed approach allows toreveal the substance of the transformation of the world oil market, to assess the changes in the oil market with the development of rhenium in terms of efficiency and functioning of the mechanism, the prospects of price volatility in the oil market. The main directions of transformation of the oil market are follows. Development of a subject basis of the oil market due to changes of a role of the main market players whose structure includes the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia now. The impact of regulatory factors complex in the oil market towards equilibrium, which include activity of OPEC, supply of shale oil, future market,activity of the uniform regulator and national regulators. Transformation of the oil market in the direction of perfection of the competitive relations, achievement of optimum market balance as a result of coordination and interaction of interests of participants of the global oil market.

Oil-based technology and economy prospects for the future. A short introduction to basic issues and a review of oil depletion projections derived from different theories and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-12-01

Recognising the world economy's technological dependence on oil and, hence, the serious consequences of a decline in oil production for which the world community is technologically unprepared, The Danish Board of Technology and The Society of Danish Engineers wish to draw attention to the issue and to the different analyses of oil resources and future oil production potentials published by various researchers and institutions, In pursuance of this objective, the two institutions have jointly commissioned this review and organised the conference Oil Demand, Production and Cost - Prospects for the Future. The aim of the review is to outline the characteristics of the cheap-oil economy and provide the participants in the conference and other interested parties with an overview of different scenarios for the future development in demand and supply, presented by various experienced researchers and institutions who base their analyses on different methodologies. The evidence thus provided should constitute a structured framework for the discussion at the conference. (BA)

Implementation of a World Wide Web server for the oil and gas industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blaylock, R.E.; Martin, F.D.; Emery, R.

1996-01-01

The Gas and Oil Technology Exchange and Communication Highway (GO-TECH) provides an electronic information system for the petroleum community for exchanging ideas, data, and technology. The PC-based system fosters communication and discussion by linking the oil and gas producers with resource centers, government agencies, consulting firms, service companies, national laboratories, academic research groups, and universities throughout the world. The oil and gas producers can access the GO-TECH World Wide Web (WWW) home page through modem links, as well as through the Internet. Future GO-TECH applications will include the establishment of virtual corporations consisting of consortia of small companies, consultants, and service companies linked by electronic information systems. These virtual corporations will have the resources and expertise previously found only in major corporations

A Game Theory Analysis of the OPEC's Influence on World Oil Price

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2006-01-01

Most studies concerning OPEC's behavior were based on traditional market microstructure. However, the assumptions about oil market structure are either very rigorous or rather fuzzy. This paper demonstrates the rationality and necessity of OPEC's price band policy by using the game theory. We conclude that OPEC has the incentive to limit its price within a specific range if the game period is sufficiently long. This incentive comes either from preference for long-term interest or from future expectations. In such a way, OPEC tries its best to maximize its profit with the quotaprice dual policy and plays a price stabilizing role in the future world oil market.

Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, Ferenc L.; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2006-01-01

The relationship between oil and nuclear energy in the global energy scene over the past 50 years is analysed. The former nuclear-oil product competition in power generation and various end-use markets is found to have transformed into a complementary relationship. Current concerns associated with both energy sources and related technologies, including price volatility, supply security, geopolitical sensitivity, depletion alarms, and environmental pollution issues for oil, economic performance, operational safety, proliferation, terrorism, radioactive waste disposal, and the resulting public acceptance for nuclear are examined as determinants of their future roles in the world energy balance. An assessment of the long-term prospects for oil and nuclear energy is presented at the scale of a century to support further economic and energy policy analyses. It is the first in-depth study of global energy projections based on a comparative examination of long-term socio-economic scenarios and their coordinated quantifications by a set of integrated energy-economy models

Oil and the world energy crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-01-01

Almost half of the needs for primary in the world are covered by oil. The rapid growth in oil prices because of the 1973 oil crisis caused a growth in prices for other source of energy as well, primarily coal and natural gas. The sale price of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in 1973 equalled--$18.87, and later $31.45. In recent years, the cost of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil reached $188.69, and by the end of the century, according to forecasts, should reach $628.98. The cost of extracting 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in the Near East equals $1.57, and in the North Sea $44.03-75.48. The cost of producing 1 m/sup 3/ of synthetic oil from bitumenous sands equals $94.35-157.25, and from fuel shales $94.35-122.14. The explored oil reserves at the end of 1979 were, in million T: in the OPEC countries 58, 265, including 22, 261 in Saudi Arabia, and 25, 539 in the rest of the world. Oil extraction in 1979 was, in million T: in the OPEC countries 1574 (100%), including 510 (32.4%) in Saudi Arabia, 175 ((11.1%) in Iraq, 145 (9.2%) in Iran, 130 (8.2%) in Kuwait, 125 (7.9%) in Venezuela, 114 (7.2%) in Nigeria, 101 (6.4%) in Libya, 88 (5.6%) in the United Arab Emirates, other OPEC countries 186 (11.8%), in the other countries of the world 1550 (100%), including the United States 479 (30.9%), 108 (7.0%) in The Chinese People's Republic, 86 (5.5%) in Canada, 80 (5.2%) in Mexico, 79 (5.1%) in Great Britain, 28 (1.8%) in Arab Republic of Egypt, 18 (1.2%) in Norway, and 86 (5.5%) in other countries.

Oil and gas activities of the world bank

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hossein, R.

1993-01-01

The oil crisis of the 1970s profoundly challenged the economies of most developing countries. The crisis hit the the oil-importing countries severely, and many suffered deteriorating balances of payments and increasingly unmanageable import bills. It was in this context, in July 1977, that the World Bank's Executive Directors approved an expanded program of lending to assist the Bank's client countries in developing their own energy resources. In 1978, the Bonn Summit and the Secretary General of the United Nations endorsed the initiation of new approaches in the energy sector by the World Bank, particularly in financing oil exploration in countries that were significant oil importers. The new initiative led to a rapid expansion of the World Bank's lending for oil and gas projects, which reached about $1 billion in 1983

Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

2009-01-01

In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

The instability of world oil market and its impact on economic development: Indonesia's experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patmosukismo, S.

1991-01-01

The world oil market has been characterized by fluctuating prices which have a direct impact on the world economy. If the world oil price rises in real terms, upstream activities become more attractive to producers, and if the price declines, downstream opportunities become more attractive. The world oil market is currently determined not only by producers and consumers, but also by the futures trade. In addition, the elasticity of oil prices has increased since the 1970s through competition among producers and competition from other energy sources. The Asia Pacific countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are thus heavily dependent on oil, but generally have small reserves. Their reserves/production ratio is ca 20 years, with a major share coming from China and Indonesia. The current situation of tight and inadequate supply may increase the region's dependence on Middle East sources. The effects of the three recent major oil crises on the Asia Pacific countries are reviewed and the role of oil and gas in Indonesia's economic development is described. Export earnings from oil and gas represent a major share of total Indonesian export revenues, and taxes and receipts from oil companies continue to be the largest receipts in Indonesian government revenues. Slow changes in the primary fuel mix and high growth in domestic consumption may turn Indonesia into a net oil importer before the year 2000. A major effort to decrease domestic oil consumption has been implemented by using natural gas and coal in the power generation sector. On the supply side, recoverable oil and gas reserves of 50 billion bbl and 200 trillion ft 3 respectively may be present but their development depends on the investment scheme of the continuing exploration program

China Likely to Resume Oil Futures Soon

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Chang Tianle

2002-01-01

@@ China is likely to resume operation of its oil futures this year, according to reports from the media about a futures conference organized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in late May. "As China has become an important oil producer and consumer,the demand for our own oil futures market emerges,which will help China oil-related enterprises hedge risks," said Li Ruisheng, vice president of PetroChina's refining and marketing company.

World oil market simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldwin, N.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maggio, G.; Cacciola, G.

2009-01-01

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1 Gb/year.

World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Browning, R.E.

1994-01-01

After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

World Energy Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

2009-01-01

In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy

Reserve growth of the world's giant oil fields

Science.gov (United States)

Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, J.W.

2005-01-01

Analysis of estimated total recoverable oil volume (field size) of 186 well-known giant oil fields of the world (>0.5 billion bbl of oil, discovered prior to 1981), exclusive of the United States and Canada, demonstrates general increases in field sizes through time. Field sizes were analyzed as a group and within subgroups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. From 1981 through 1996, the estimated volume of oil in the 186 fields for which adequate data were available increased from 617 billion to 777 billion bbl of oil (26%). Processes other than new field discoveries added an estimated 160 billion bbl of oil to known reserves in this subset of the world's oil fields. Although methods for estimating field sizes vary among countries, estimated sizes of the giant oil fields of the world increased, probably for many of the same reasons that estimated sizes of oil fields in the United States increased over the same time period. Estimated volumes in OPEC fields increased from a total of 550 billion to 668 billion bbl of oil and volumes in non-OPEC fields increased from 67 billion to 109 billion bbl of oil. In terms of percent change, non-OPEC field sizes increased more than OPEC field sizes (63% versus 22%). The changes in estimated total recoverable oil volumes that occurred within three 5-year increments between 1981 and 1996 were all positive. Between 1981 and 1986, the increase in estimated total recoverable oil volume within the 186 giant oil fields was 11 billion bbl of oil; between 1986 and 1991, the increase was 120 billion bbl of oil; and between 1991 and 1996, the increase was 29 billion bbl of oil. Fields in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries followed trends of substantial reserve growth.

The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soleille, S.

2004-01-01

The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Raymond; Leung, Guy C.K.

2011-01-01

The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market. - Highlights: → Review of the oil trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government. → Review of the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies. → China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. → Shipment data show that China can no longer be regarded as a separate market. → Strong co-movement between the Chinese oil price and the international oil prices.

World Energy Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

2009-03-15

In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.

Dominant Middle East oil reserves critically important to world supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riva, J.P. Jr.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that the location production, and transportation of the 60 million bbl of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to relations between nations, as well as to their economic wellbeing. Oil has frequently been a decisive factor in the determination of foreign policy. The war in the Persian Gulf, while a dramatic example of the critical importance of oil, is just the latest of a long line of oil-influenced diplomatic/military incidents, which may be expected to continue. Assuming that the world's remaining oil was evenly distributed and demand did not grow, if exploration and development proceeded as efficiently as they have in the U.S., world oil production could be sustained at around current levels to about the middle of the next century. It then would begin a long decline in response to a depleting resource base. However, the world's remaining oil is very unevenly distributed. It is located primarily in the Eastern Hemisphere, mostly in the Persian Gulf, and much is controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Scientific resource assessments indicate that about half of the world's remaining conventionally recoverable crude oil resource occurs in the Persian Gulf area. In terms of proved reserves (known recoverable oil), the Persian Gulf portion increase to almost two-thirds

Oil Prophets: Looking at World Oil Studies Over Time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrews, Steve [Denver, CO (United States); Udall, Randy [Carbondale, CO (United States)

2003-07-01

Early reports of world oil assessments date back to the 1940s. In the intervening 60 years, the number of studies projecting Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil reached well over 50. A detailed search would undoubtedly lengthen the list that will be provided with this paper. How have their estimates fared? Given general agreement that we haven't yet reached the halfway point in eventual production, it's too early to offer definitive assessments. However, several factors stand out: The learning curve. It took over a decade of effort for projections to emerge that are in line with lower-end projections of more recent studies. The learning curve has flattened. For those individuals and groups who conducted multiple studies, their subsequent EUR numbers generally trend higher. The analyses lack a common definitional framework. Beyond crude oil, what liquids are included? Heavy oil and tar sands? Some or all gas liquids? Polar and deepwater oil? While the ability to locate, evaluate and extract oil in the field has drastically improved over time, analysts continue to be hampered by a lack of access to definitive data plus disagreements about assessment methodologies. Striving to determine how many petroleum liquids we have left is a useful exercise, but primarily as a means to help determine when daily worldwide production is likely to peak. To that end, a key point is that 'not all liquids resources are created equal'; many of the larger new fields are located in harsh and remote regions, in politically unstable environments, or require large energy inputs during extraction. Production rates and costs will vary dramatically. Since demand is somewhat fickle, identifying a year or range of years when liquids production will peak qualifies as part art, part science. That said, the paper will list estimates by 'oil prophets' as to when they project that petroleum liquids production will peak. The estimates range from 1995 to 2025. How have their estimates fared

Macro factors in oil futures returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

2012-01-01

We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macro-economic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor approximate model to extract 9 factors from this dataset. We then regress crude oil return on several combinations of these factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor which has the largest influence on crude oil price is related to real variables from emerging countries. This result confirms the latest finding in the literature that the recent evolution in oil price is attributable to change in supply and demand conditions and not to the large increase in trading activity from speculators. (authors)

World energy: Building a sustainable future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

1992-04-01

As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world`s major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

Future of Energy in Egypt and the World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hani Nokraschy

2015-08-01

Full Text Available If the whole world, which Egypt is a part of, continues business as usual in the field of electricitygeneration, namely, using the same regimes adopts today, burning fossil fuels and Uranium fission,both fuels will run out within sixty years at most and the world will definitely return to the Stone Age.Shall this be the end of the Egyptian people … the history makers?Generating energy is the next necessity to human life after water and food, since it is the majorstimulus of development. However, what is the aim of development if it is only momentary; thenfollowed by an endless abyss?Shall we wait till fossil and nuclear fuels run out? Jostling over the remaining fuel will certainly befierce and we will pay a high price for it, a matter that will subsequently lead to demolishing theingredients of development.Considering that oil is now dominating our way of life, it shall be wise to start immediately planning forthe post-oil age, provided that it is a sustainable plan set up to continue its validity as long as humanslive on this planet; this cannot be achieved except if we shift to renewable energies.Looking at Egypt and its available renewable energy sources, it becomes evident that the solarenergy, particularly in Upper Egypt, can give more than the present and future needs of the Egyptiansociety and even cover the demand of the whole world for electricity.

Future of oil and gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gatermann, R.; Ten Hoedt, R.

2009-01-01

Two articles in the section 'Future of oil and gas': one ('Baltic strained by oil traffic') on the growing risks of accidents in maritime traffic in the Baltic region, and one ('Angola wants bigger piece of the pie') on the importance of the oil production in Angola to energy supplies in Europe and the USA. It appears that national oil company Sonango wants to have a greater part of the profits

World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soytas, Ugur; Sari, Ramazan; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Hacihasanoglu, Erk

2009-01-01

We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.

Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schipper, L.

2002-01-01

The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

Oil Prophets: Looking at World Oil Studies Over Time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrews, Steve [Denver, CO (United States); Udall, Randy [Carbondale, CO (United States)

2003-07-01

Early reports of world oil assessments date back to the 1940s. In the intervening 60 years, the number of studies projecting Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil reached well over 50. A detailed search would undoubtedly lengthen the list that will be provided with this paper. How have their estimates fared? Given general agreement that we haven't yet reached the halfway point in eventual production, it's too early to offer definitive assessments. However, several factors stand out: The learning curve. It took over a decade of effort for projections to emerge that are in line with lower-end projections of more recent studies. The learning curve has flattened. For those individuals and groups who conducted multiple studies, their subsequent EUR numbers generally trend higher. The analyses lack a common definitional framework. Beyond crude oil, what liquids are included? Heavy oil and tar sands? Some or all gas liquids? Polar and deepwater oil? While the ability to locate, evaluate and extract oil in the field has drastically improved over time, analysts continue to be hampered by a lack of access to definitive data plus disagreements about assessment methodologies. Striving to determine how many petroleum liquids we have left is a useful exercise, but primarily as a means to help determine when daily worldwide production is likely to peak. To that end, a key point is that 'not all liquids resources are created equal'; many of the larger new fields are located in harsh and remote regions, in politically unstable environments, or require large energy inputs during extraction. Production rates and costs will vary dramatically. Since demand is somewhat fickle, identifying a year or range of years when liquids production will peak qualifies as part art, part science. That said, the paper will list estimates by 'oil prophets' as to when they project that petroleum liquids production will peak. The estimates range from 1995 to 2025. How

Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

2008-01-01

In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

The Canadian oil sands--a sticky future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cowtan, S A

1977-01-01

The oil sands have been known for 200 yr but only over the last decade have they been recognized as a potential major energy source for Canada. The study looks at the present GCOS plant, and briefly discusses Canada's future energy requirements and how she might fill those requirements from conventional and nonconventional sources, such as the Frontier areas, oil sands mining, oil sands in situ, and heavy oil. The economics and the future of these sources and the environment necessary for their development are analyzed.

A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

for the concept of this model, the basic structure, fundamental equations. The remaining work is worth the next project to obtain final results from KEEIOF model. Delphi method, which forecasts the world crude oil price with the concept of political economy, carried by Center for Energy and Environmental policy (CEEP), showed an increasing crude oil price in the near future. (author). 22 figs., 12 tabs.

Proceedings of the CERI 2001 World Oil Conference. CD ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 23 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference was divided into 8 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, (2) oil and politics, (3) global oil supply, (4) North American supply and markets, (5) global oil demand, (6) oil.com, (7) the business of the environment, and (8) oil and money. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. The current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential. The environmental, and socio-economic challenges that both the upstream and downstream industry will face challenges in the next century were also described. refs., tabs., figs

Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

2005-02-01

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

The united states and the world oil security. US oil policy and production of a global collective good

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

2004-07-01

The aim of this paper is to define and discusses the part of the Unites States in the world oil system operating and more particularly the US oil security policy in the world policy. It refutes some established ideas as the necessity of the US military supremacy to provide the oil security, the necessity of ''agreements'' with oil exporting countries facing the US energy consumption increase or the limitation of the resources access to other countries. At the opposite the United States seem to invest in the production of a global public good in matter of energy security. In order to illustrate this opinion the author defines the problem of the US oil security in a world context. He analyzes then the US policies to show the impacts in the world oil security and studies the specific part of the military factor in the security policy. (A.L.B.)

Future directions conventional oil supply, Western Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, G.R.; Hayward, J.

1997-01-01

The history of the Canadian oil industry was briefly sketched and the future outlook for crude oil and natural gas liquids in western Canada was forecast. The historical review encompassed some of the significant events in history of the Canadian oil industry, including the Leduc discovery in 1947, the Swan Hills discovery in 1957, the start of commercial production from the Athabasca oil sands in 1967, the discovery of the Hibernia oilfield offshore Newfoundland in 1979, and the onset of the use of horizontal production wells in western Canada in 1987. The resource base, supply costs, and the technology that is being developed to reduce costs and to improve recovery, were reviewed. Future oil prices were predicted, taking into account the costs associated with technological developments. It was suggested that the character of the industry is undergoing a change from an industry dominated by conventional supply to a mixed industry with increasing volume of heavy oil, primary bitumen, synthetic oil and frontier supply replacing 'conventional' light crude oil. Projections into the future are subject to uncertainty both on the supply as well as on the demand side. The potential impact of technology can significantly affect demand, and technological developments can yield additional supplies which exceed current expectations. 10 figs

Distribution and quantitative assessment of world crude oil reserves and resources

Science.gov (United States)

Masters, Charles D.; Root, David H.; Dietzman, William D.

1983-01-01

World Demonstrated Reserves of crude oil are approximately 723 billion barrels of oil (BBO). Cumulative production is 445 BBO and annual production is 20 BBO. Demonstrated Reserves of crude-oil have declined over the past 10 years consistent with discoveries lagging production over the same period. The assessment of Undiscovered Resources shows a 90 percent probability that the amount discoverable lies between 321 and 1,417 BBO, 550 BBO being the most likely value. The most likely value for Ultimate recoverable resources is 1,718 BBO. The distribution of Ultimate Resources of crude oil will remain highly skewed toward the Middle East; no frontier areas that have potentials large enough to significantly affect present distribution are recognized. Rates of discovery have continued to decline over the past 20 years even though exploration activity has increased in recent years. Prudence dictates, therefore, that the low side of the assessment of Undiscovered Resources be responsibly considered and that alternate energy sources be a part of future planning. Extra-heavy oil and bitumen are assessed separately, with Reserves being figured as the annual productive capacity of installed facilities times 25 years. The annual production of extra-heavy oil is about 8 million barrels and of bitumen about 60 million barrels.

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

2011-01-15

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

2011-01-01

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

1981-04-01

An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

Oil, Security, and the Post-9/11 World

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hermsmeyer, Gregory

2002-01-01

The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks did not directly threaten world oil supplies, but they exposed the long-term danger of relying on an energy source found chiefly in one of the world's most explosive regions...

World oil and gas resources: status and outlook - A rational attempt at an emotional issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burri, P.

2008-01-01

This paper examines the status of world oil and gas resources and attempts to provide a rational view of the situation and the prospects available. The author states that only about a quarter of the world's estimated ultimately recoverable oil resources and one eighth of the ultimate gas resources have been produced until today. Further, the author is of the opinion that very significant reserve additions are to be expected not only from the still existing exploration frontiers (e.g. deep water and Arctic fields) but even more so from new hydrocarbon detection tools, advanced recovery technology and from unconventional oil and gas resources. The price situation is discussed as are various developments that not only have a negative but also a positive impact on supplies. Reserves and unconventional resources are discussed, particularly from the pricing point of view. The effect of pricing on consumption is examined, as are new technologies for recovery and the potential available for future exploration

World oil and gas resources: status and outlook - A rational attempt at an emotional issue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burri, P.

2008-07-01

This paper examines the status of world oil and gas resources and attempts to provide a rational view of the situation and the prospects available. The author states that only about a quarter of the world's estimated ultimately recoverable oil resources and one eighth of the ultimate gas resources have been produced until today. Further, the author is of the opinion that very significant reserve additions are to be expected not only from the still existing exploration frontiers (e.g. deep water and Arctic fields) but even more so from new hydrocarbon detection tools, advanced recovery technology and from unconventional oil and gas resources. The price situation is discussed as are various developments that not only have a negative but also a positive impact on supplies. Reserves and unconventional resources are discussed, particularly from the pricing point of view. The effect of pricing on consumption is examined, as are new technologies for recovery and the potential available for future exploration

World energy: Building a sustainable future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

1992-04-01

As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world's major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

A fear index to predict oil futures returns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

2013-01-01

This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamed, A.H.

1992-01-01

Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

1999-10-01

Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, Hamed G.

2016-01-01

Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run. - Highlights: • Variables and loops affecting oil production are formulated mathematically. • Shares of conventional and unconventional oil in the global oil market is analyzed. • Oil production rate under different oil price scenarios up to 2025 is simulated. • Unconventional oil would obtain a considerable share in market in the short-term. • A late peak for the conventional oil resources would occur.

China's new oil import status underpins world's most dynamic petroleum scene

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

China is poised to become a net importer of oil in 1994--95. That sets the stage for China importing more than 1 million b/d of crude oil and refined products on a net basis by the turn of the century. That development underpins a bigger story -- arguably the biggest story on the petroleum scene today. The turnabout that is seeing the world's fifth biggest oil producer go from significant oil exporter in recent years to major oil importer by the turn of the century points to several other truisms in the petroleum industry: That an oil demand surge in the Asia-Pacific region led by China will fuel overall world oil demand growth for years to come; that a refining and petrochemical boom in a country that accounts for about one fifth of the world's population has dramatic implications for those two industries; that privatization has gathered so much momentum in the global petroleum industry that even Communist China has embraced some form of it; that China's domestic crude supply shortfall is creating unprecedented opportunities for foreign upstream investors in one of the world's most prospective yet underexplored and underexploited regions; and that the same new openness that is distinguishing China's petroleum industry today is turning some of its state owned companies into major competitors to be reckoned with on the international scene, upstream and downstream. The paper discusses China's oil export/import balance, supply/demand outlook, policy changes, and new regulations governing export of crude oil and products

The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noel, P

1999-10-01

Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

Energetic dependency on the oil reserve- resources of crude oil in the world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marína Sidorová

2006-10-01

Full Text Available Crude oil belongs to the most important energy resources nowadays., However its reserves are the smallest in comparison with other energy resources as coal, gas or uranium. The world oil consumption continuously increases and within 20-year period there could be about one third. So, the consumption of combustibles will probably increase and the reserves will decrease. Promising are new resources or a better utilization of primary sources. It´s a question of a short time when world scientists should think about this indisputably worldwide problem and would provide an equivalent substitution with an available ecological solution.

World oil: the growing case for international policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, D.; Khanna, N.

2000-01-01

Can the economic theory of depletion be reconciled with low petroleum prices? This article uses a revision of the theory, which reflects demand functions that rise in response to increasing world population and income. The magnitude of producers' and consumers' surplus is estimated under both competitive and monopolistic assumptions; the result indicates a present value comparable to or in excess of today's gross world economic product. Game theory suggests a framework that explains the interaction between oil pricing and military policy, and the economic incentives that result in a general pattern of recent market equilibrium crude oil prices often fluctuating with a 15-20 US dollars per barrel range. The analysis concludes that the economic incentives for political instability in the Persian Gulf will increase, and more formal methods of setting the international framework for Persian Gulf oil may be expected. (author)

Is the world oil market 'one great pool'? A test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, A.E.; Williams, M.D.

1993-01-01

In a recent paper (Weiner, 1991) it was argued that crude oil markets are regionalized, thus challenging the assertion that the world oil market is homogeneous. This argument bears on the effectiveness of various energy policies. It is argued that these policies should be analyzed using constructs such as antitrust markets, rather than in relation to an ad-hoc definition of regionalization like that used by Weiner. Regionalization and geographic antitrust markets, empirics, and policy implications of regional markets are discussed. By drawing clear parallels between the concept of regionalization and antitrust markets, it is shown that: due to Wiener's flawed methodological and empirical approach, it is not clear that crude oil markets are, in fact, regional; and policies that appear at first glance to require regional markets to be effective, may be explained even in a unified world market. Strong evidence is found in support of a unified world oil market. Some policy implications in the area of import taxes are discussed. 35 refs., 1 tab

OPEC at middle age: facing an uncertain future in the world oil market economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

International institutions, like individuals, groups, and even societies and cultures, pass through various stages in their development as they grow from youth through middle age into more experienced and mature members of the international community. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is no exception to this generally observable phenomenon on the world economic scene. It has clearly undergone a gradual process of growth over the past three decades or so since its establishment by five founding states in Baghdad in September 1960. OPEC's history since then could be characterized as being divided into three distinct developmental stages. The first decade, the 1960s, was a period of consolidation of OPEC's power over the oil companies and their control over the member countries'oil resources. The second decade - the 1970s - was a decade characterized by almost continuous and prolonged producer - consumer confrontation as well as revelation of some of the more basic cleavages within OPEC as an organization. This was followed by the decade of the 1980s -- a period of relative accommodation between producers and consumers in the interest of longer term market stability

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

2010-01-01

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

The oil world war; La guerre mondiale du petrole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lafargue, F

2008-07-01

Since the beginning of the 21. century, a war has started between the USA, China and India. The USA, first oil consuming and importing country in the world, has now to take into account the increasing energy consumption of China and India. China is now, just behind Japan, the third oil importing country and India ranked number seven. From the Gulf of Guinea to the Arabic peninsula, from the Orenoque basin to the Caspian sea banks, Washington, Beijing and New Delhi covet the same oil fields. This rivalry exacerbates the political tensions in many regions of the Earth and already provokes a latent food crisis. This black gold war is changing the World's face and should provoke serious armed conflicts. (J.S.)

Future energy supplies. Lessons from the world energy outlook 2001. Insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cattier, F.

2002-01-01

At a global level, primary energy resources are amply sufficient to meet the growing needs expected over the coming decades. Energy supplies may however be affected by economic, technological or political conditions. Supplies of oil and natural gas will be dependent in particular on the carrying out of the necessary investments in the field of development, production capacity, transport and distribution within a suitable time. The future for coal is above all linked to future environmental policies to be put in place and on the capacity of 'clean' coal technologies to respond to these. Due to their costs, which remain high, and to a lack of incentive policies, renewable energy sources should find it difficult to gain a major share of world energy markets. Finally, the future for nuclear energy remains dependent upon policies concerning security of supply or the fight against climatic change. (author)

Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hankyeung Choi

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives products (namely, crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread for modeling and forecasting daily OPEC crude oil spot prices is evaluated. Based on the results of a structural break test, the sample is divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. We find a unidirectional relationship from the two crack spread derivatives markets to the crude oil spot market during the post-crisis period. In terms of forecasting performance, the forecasting models based on crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread outperform the Random Walk Model (RWM, both in-sample and out-of-sample. In addition, on average, the results suggest that information from the ETF crack spread market contributes more to the forecasting models than information from the crack spread futures market.

World oil flow steady in 1992; stable market ahead for 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1993-01-01

World crude oil production in 1992 was virtually unchanged from 1991. Production last year averaged 59.96 million b/d, up only 17,000 b/d from 1991. Substantial production declines in the C.I.S. and U.S. were offset by increases among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a number of other countries outside the OPEC sphere. Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show world demand for petroleum products moved up 300,000 b/d to 66.9 million b/d. This included an addition to stocks of an estimated 1000,000 b/d. IEA predicts world demand will continue to rise in 1993 and OPEC output will advance to meet this higher level. Even though OPEC production is expected to be up for the year, seasonal swings in demand can cause price fluctuations. The paper describes OPEC production, non-OPEC production, oil prices, the world oil supply, Russian's decline, world demand, and the outlook for 1993

Present status on world alternative energy developments to oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddington, J.

1980-01-01

The IEA was established about five years ago in the OECD immediately after the oil crisis, and 20 countries have participated in it. Progress was observed in the control of the expansion of energy demand. The energy utilization in IEA member countries became efficient due to the contribution of new technologies, and owing to the improvement of productivity, the growth of energy consumption was less than 1% despite the GDP grew at the yearly rate of 2.5%. The expansion of the utilization of natural gas and coal is promising, but the projects of nuclear power generation are behind schedule. The short term prospect in petroleum market is discussed, and the price of crude oil tends to be stabilized. ''The prospect of energy in the world by 2000'' will be published by the IEA in the latter half of 1980. The scale of the development of nuclear power generation was reduced because the prediction of the rate of power generation growth was changed from 5.2% to 3.1%. The effect of new energy technologies on future energy market has been studied by the support of 15 countries, and it was recommended to give financial aid to heat pumps, coal liquefaction and the efficient recovery of oil and natural gas. Also the techniques for operating existing facilities under strict environment and safety regulations have been studied. (Kako, I.)

The future of oil supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Richard G; Sorrell, Steven R

2014-01-13

Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in 'tight oil' production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the 'peak oil' debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue.

Oil and Gas in the Arab world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The state of oil and gas production in each of twelve Arab states in 1996 is reviewed. A table of proved oil reserves and production in these countries as at the end of 1995 is provided. For Arab oil producers, 1996 was a good year in price terms. Crude oil was selling at an average of $3 a barrel more than in 1995. Factors contributing to prices rises were the increase in demand accompanying global economic growth, especially in the developing economies of Asia, which was not matched by supply growth, and the news that Iraq is unlikely to return to international markets in the near future. (UK)

World oil prices flat to declining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adelman, M.A.

1993-01-01

A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

World resources of crude oil and natural gas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D. (Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States))

1991-01-01

An abstract is given of a paper presented at the World Petroleum Congress 1991 on the world estimates of identified reserves and undiscovered resources for crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Data are presented for Canada, Mexico, USA, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, USSR, Africa, Middle East, Asia/Oceania and Antartica. (UK).

Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia)

2010-10-15

In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei; Narayan, Seema

2010-01-01

In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

State of the art in oil market in the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, F. E.

2007-01-01

Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

Comment on the UPS (and past and future downs) of the oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walde, T.

2000-01-01

Crude oil has been rising to levels over 35 US$ per barrel from the very low prices of early 1999 - close to 10 $. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, this leaves it still at a third of the prices prevailing during the peak of 1981. This trend has been accelerated currently by short-term influences market factors. Who could have forecasted such price evolution by January 1999, when crude prices were collapsing, following the series of financial crises in Asia, Russia and Brazil? The current oil price surge has been breaking once again every 'crystal ball' and mathematical model designed to predict short-or-long-term oil price evolution - foremost the models used by the international oil companies and their advisers, chastened by the embarrassment of earlier optimism. Old ghosts that used to scare the world during the energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's are waking up again. Traditional forces that have since 1985 and throughout the whole 1990's given economic rationality to crude price behaviour, seem to be losing ground and are unable to restore a more sustainable level of oil prices. Political forces, silent since the price collapse of 1985/86, have again raised their head and bringing to the fore historic contradictions and problems never solved. This paper covers this new reality. We are too cautions to dare to forecast, but rather identify factors that have to be considered in speculating about the future evolution of oil prices. The changing weight of those factors will continue to influence the future of the oil price - without much interest (apart from the producers) when low but again greatly debated when, as now, up again. (authors)

Pollination networks of oil-flowers: a tiny world within the smallest of all worlds.

Science.gov (United States)

Bezerra, Elisângela L S; Machado, Isabel C; Mello, Marco A R

2009-09-01

1. In the Neotropics, most plants depend on animals for pollination. Solitary bees are the most important vectors, and among them members of the tribe Centridini depend on oil from flowers (mainly Malpighiaceae) to feed their larvae. This specialized relationship within 'the smallest of all worlds' (a whole pollination network) could result in a 'tiny world' different from the whole system. This 'tiny world' would have higher nestedness, shorter path lengths, lower modularity and higher resilience if compared with the whole pollination network. 2. In the present study, we contrasted a network of oil-flowers and their visitors from a Brazilian steppe ('caatinga') to whole pollination networks from all over the world. 3. A network approach was used to measure network structure and, finally, to test fragility. The oil-flower network studied was more nested (NODF = 0.84, N = 0.96) than all of the whole pollination networks studied. Average path lengths in the two-mode network were shorter (one node, both for bee and plant one-mode network projections) and modularity was lower (M = 0.22 and four modules) than in all of the whole pollination networks. Extinctions had no or small effects on the network structure, with an average change in nestedness smaller than 2% in most of the cases studied; and only two species caused coextinctions. The higher the degree of the removed species, the stronger the effect and the higher the probability of a decrease in nestedness. 4. We conclude that the oil-flower subweb is more cohesive and resilient than whole pollination networks. Therefore, the Malpighiaceae have a robust pollination service in the Neotropics. Our findings reinforce the hypothesis that each ecological service is in fact a mosaic of different subservices with a hierarchical structure ('webs within webs').

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Oil development in China: Current status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Linwei; Fu Feng; Li Zheng; Liu Pei

2012-01-01

The future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in China. This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China’s oil development through system analysis. First, we map a Sankey diagram of China’s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. Then, we present the historical and ongoing trends of China’s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand, oil resource availability, technology improvement, and policy adjustment. Based on these understandings, we design three scenarios of China’s oil demand in 2030, and analyze policy implications for oil saving, automotive energy development, and energy security. From the analysis, we draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis, and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► A Sankey Diagram to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. ► Present the ongoing trends of China’s oil development. ► Discuss important policy issues such as oil saving, energy security, and emissions reduction.

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

2007-01-01

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

Proceedings of the world heavy oil congress 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

The World Heavy Oil Congress 2011 took place March 2011 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. This congress is an international gathering of heavy oil experts and professionals which takes place every 18 months to discuss issues and opportunities facing the heavy oil industry in terms of commercial, technical, regulatory and geo-political areas. Innovative solutions for improving performance, reducing costs and mitigating environmental impacts are presented. Hundreds of presentations were made, courses were delivered, and over 100 companies from 30 countries exhibited. The congress had support from various companies and government entities.This conference featured 133 papers, all of have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database.

Shell's Big Dirty Secret. Insight into the world's most carbon intensive oil company and the legacy of CEO Jeroen van der Veer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockman, L.; Rowell, A.; Kretzmann, S.

2009-06-01

Royal Dutch Shell plc is the largest oil operator in Nigeria, and holds more acreage in Canada's oil sands than any other corporation. Because of these facts, and several others, Shell is also the most carbon intensive oil company in the world. In short, for every barrel of oil it produces in the future, Shell will contribute more to global warming than any other oil company. This report documents Shell's record investment in dirty forms of energy, and it illuminates the corporate strategy and lobbying for regulations that indicate it intends to profit from that position for a long time to come (authors' abstract)

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1991-09-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

International Oil Supplies and Demands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-04-01

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

2008-01-01

This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chu V. Nguyen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crude oil futures price as evidenced by subsequent corrections made over the sample period. The result of the bounds test for a long-term relationship between these two futures prices is inconclusive. The empirical findings further suggest that U.S. futures market traders considered futures prices of gasoline three weeks earlier in determining the current trading price while taking only one week to respond completely to the shock in the crude oil futures price.  The empirical findings of this investigation may address the core elements of the price dynamics of the crude oil and gasoline futures markets and advance inquiry into assessment tools that could manage a very complex market challenge, especially for policy makers in countries with transitional economies in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

Peak Oil, threat or energy worlds' phantasm?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favennec, Jean-Pierre

2011-01-01

The concept of Peak Oil is based on the work of King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist who worked for Shell in the USA in the 1960's. Based on the fact that discoveries in America reached a maximum in the 1930's, he announced that American production would reach a maximum in 1969, which did actually occur. Geologists members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil have extrapolated this result to a worldwide scale and, since oil discoveries reached a peak in the 1960's, argued that production will peak in the very near future. It is clear that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and therefore exhaustible. But little is known regarding the level of ultimate (i.e. total existing) reserves. There are probably very large reserves of non conventional oil in addition to the reserves of conventional oil. An increasing number of specialists put maximum production at less than 100 Mb/d more for geopolitical than physical reasons. Attainable peak production will probably vary from year to year and will depend on how crude oil prices develop

Iraq's future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henderson, S.

1998-01-01

The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

European oil refining: strategies for a competitive future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonald, James.

1997-07-01

European Oil Refining investigates how the industry came to be in crisis and what the future holds. As well as an extensive analysis of past and present market shifts, the report predicts likely future developments and their consequences for investors. The report reviews the European oil sector in a global context, calculates the cost to refiners of key environmental legislation, assesses the problems caused by changing product demand and crude supply, examines possible solutions to the problems of low margins and overcapacity, evaluates the key players' main strategies to increase their competitiveness, analyses the western European oil refining industry by country, details the refinery operations of the major countries of central and eastern Europe, profiles 15 of the major oil companies and estimates the increase in investment required as a result of legislative and demand changes. (author)

World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

2010-10-15

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

Evidence of efficiency in United States futures oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duchock, C.J. Jr.

1991-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use the Perpetual Contract Data for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures contracts in studies of the US crude oil futures market prices to determine whether the market was efficient. Analysis was done to determine whether the Perpetual Contract Data exhibited the characteristics of a random walk. Daily data on US crude oil perpetual futures contract prices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques and spectral analysis techniques. Spectral analysis was used on the first differences of daily data to determine whether the price change data contained cyclicality. Results showed no significant cycles or autocorrelation in the data, concluding there was evidence to indicate the Perpetual Contract Data for futures prices is a random walk. This is similar to the conclusion by Howard (1988) that spot West Texas Intermediate Crude prices follow a random walk. Thus, both the futures and spot markets efficiently capture current information in prices

World Oil: Coping With the Dangers of Success. Worldwatch Paper 66.

Science.gov (United States)

Flavin, Christopher

This publication examines various topics and issues related to the world oil situation. Major areas considered are: (1) the nature and consequences of the current oil glut; (2) a historical overview of the petroleum era (with analyses of the three time periods of 1900-1973, 1973-1979, and 1979-1981); (3) the geopolitics of oil (including data on…

Differing perspectives of major oil firms on future energy developments: An illustrative framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Youngho; Yong Jiayun

2007-01-01

This study develops a framework to analyse the perspectives of major oil firms in terms of their perceptions of current energy developments and projections of future energy potentials, and illustrates their views on the possibility of a paradigm shift in fuel use. The three A's themes-availability of resource (AV), applicability of technology (AP) and acceptability by society (AC)-make up the analytical framework. Divergence in oil firms' behaviour and perspectives are captured by the 3-A triangle that illustrates how the four largest oil firms in the world balance their stakes among the three A's. ExxonMobil's position is markedly skewed towards the theme of AV, whilst BP has the most balanced approach among the four. Shell and Total both share a similarly shaped 3-A triangle with more stakes placed on the theme of AP. The results would imply that a paradigm shift in resource use or a full-scale transition to a backstop technology is unlikely in the coming decades

Factors affecting world and Russian domestic oil prices: the domestic implications - a Russian perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khartukov, E.M.

2001-01-01

This paper modestly aims at answering two formally related but unnecessarily interconnected questions about international and Russian domestic pricing of crude oil. The first of them is what, in our opinion, chiefly determines price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market. And the second one is in which way (if at all) world oil price dynamics affect Russia's internal market. (author)

Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman

2009-01-01

For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman [School of Chemical Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

2009-08-15

For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Banerjee, Shayan

2014-01-01

Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories. - Highlights: • The world oil market is not completely unified. • Regions are defined by differences in API gravity and sulfur content. • Country risk regionalizes the world oil market. • Shipping chokepoints regionalize the world oil market. • Regionalization adds $0.20 to $2.86 price difference between oils in same market

Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

2001-01-01

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamoto, Hiroyuki

1996-01-01

Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

Oil futures prices and stock management: a cointegration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balabanoff, Stefan

1995-01-01

Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)

Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enav, Peter

1998-09-01

This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

OpenAIRE

Chu V. Nguyen

2017-01-01

This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crud...

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael

2009-01-01

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lantzke, U.

1977-01-01

The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

The term structure of oil futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabillon, J.

1991-01-01

In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

The future of national oil Companies of OPEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subroto.

1994-01-01

OPEC countries are dependent on their National Oil Companies for international trade, economy, technology transfer and social planning. With low oil prices, increasing demand and worsened financial and economic status, time has come to give priority to two major issues necessary for health existence and growth of our national oil companies : cost reduction through the application of new technologies and less support from public funds ; planning for future markets beyond national borders, particularly developing countries. (Author)

Proceedings of the CERI 2003 World Oil Conference : What lies beneath? CD-ROM ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The 22 presentations at this conference reflected recent developments in the international petroleum industry with particular focus on the outlook of world energy markets and prospects for oil supply and reserves. Topics of discussion included the industry structure, development and operating costs, international spending, the expansion of world oil markets, market access, as well as new technology development and application. The papers also covered environmental issues such as climate change and the responsible use of water. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in the current marketplace. The conference was divided into 7 sessions entitled: (1) outlook for oil prices, (2) global oil supplies, (3) oil and money, (4) downstream issues, (5) markets for Canadian bitumen and synthetics, (6) Canada's east coast, and (7) the geopolitical landscape. Three papers were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. tabs., figs

Mexican oil industry: Shifting to difficult oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bazan G., Gerardo; Gonzalez, Cristobal J.

2010-09-15

Mexico has stepped into an important transition of declining oil fields and new challenging oil projects. The aim of this paper is to show a new perspective of the oil resources that have been exploited throughout the Mexican territory, as well as the remaining resources yet to be exploited. We have developed a resources/production-costs chart that illustrates the historical and future development of the Mexican oil industry, showing the shift that the industry will face in the coming years; this chart was taken from a model already in use by the most prestige energy agencies in the world.

Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwarkin, J.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

Brazil in the global energy world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Frank D.; Vossoughi, Shapour [University of Kansas (KU), KS (United States)

2012-07-01

Brazil is the 10th largest energy consumer in the world and the third largest in the Western Hemisphere, behind the United States and Canada. Total primary energy consumption in Brazil has increased significantly in recent years; and over the past decade, Brazil has made great strides in increasing its total energy production, particularly oil. Brazil has the second-largest crude oil reserves in South America (behind Venezuela), and is one of the fastest growing oil producers in the world. According to United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brazil had 12.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2008. In 2007, Brazil's state owned Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS) announced that it had discovered an estimated 5-8 billion barrels of recoverable reserves (including both oil and natural gas) in the Tupi field, located in the Santos Basin. In 2008, subsequent discoveries were announced, to include Jupiter and Carioca (aka Sugar Loaf). Although PETROBRAS has yet to confirm the size of the discoveries, some industry analysts estimate the total extent of recoverable oil and natural gas reserves in the entire pre-salt layer have approached 40 to 80 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The reserves occur below a salt zone that is estimated to be 7,000 meters below the ocean surface. However, Brazil faces many challenges to recover the hydrocarbons to include technical, political, fiscal, and infrastructure hurdles. In spite of the challenges ahead, these discoveries transformed the nature and focus of Brazil's oil industry, economy, and future; and the potential impact of the pre-salt discoveries upon world oil markets is vast. The purpose of this paper is to discuss how the recent discoveries will affect Brazil's future and the impact it will have on the global energy world. (author)

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

2011-09-15

Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

2011-01-01

Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

Oil shale highlights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The low prices of crude oil have continued to retard the commercial development of oil shale and other syn fuels. Although research funds are more difficult to find, some R and D work by industry, academia, and governmental agencies continues in the United States and in other parts of the world. Improvements in retorting technology, upgrading oil-shale feedstock, and developing high-value niche-market products from shale oil are three notable areas of research that have been prominent for the past several years. Although the future prices of conventional crude cannot be predicted, it seems evident that diminishing supplies and a burgeoning world population will force us to turn to alternate fossil fuels as well as to cleaner sources of non-fossil energy. (author)

Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

Russian oil prices: courting the world market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khartukov, E.M.

1995-01-01

The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zagaglia, Paolo

2010-01-01

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

A literature review of demand studies in world oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkins, F.; Tayyebi Jazayeri, S.M.

2004-04-01

The literature on world oil market demands was reviewed, summarized and organized into seven major groupings. The objective was to model economic behaviour before and after price shocks. In particular, the paper demonstrated how the price elasticity of demand in world oil markets is estimated. It also showed how the relationship between energy and oil consumption and income are estimated. The income elasticity of demand was also estimated, and empirical estimates of the elasticity of aggregate output regarding crude oil and energy prices were presented. The paper also referred to the transportation sector and estimates of the changing nature of seasonal factors. The review showed that there is much heterogeneity of econometric results. The literature showed that demand increased considerably in response to the price shocks of the 1970s, but these shocks were reversed in the 1980s when the increase in demand did not correspond with the decrease in price. Some of the literature is driven by the belief that there must be a stable, non-linear model that fits the data both before and after price shocks. The authors question whether this could be true and propose an alternative hypothesis that there is a different model that pertains to economic behaviour after price shocks. 15 refs., 7 tabs., 1 fig

China: a black hole for future oil?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cragg, Chris.

1997-01-01

Whenever two or three oil price forecasters are gathered together, the conversation generally gets round to the position of China. For China holds a great many of the keys to the future structure of global oil demand. Its astonishing rates of growth projected forward suggest a rapid transition towards high import dependency in the early years of the next century. After all, if the Chinese had the same passion for per capita oil consumption as people in the UK, they would use 22 million barrels a day (mbd), not the 3 mbd they currently consume. Yet to the puzzlement of many, China never quite behaves the way its exponential flight path suggests it will. (author)

The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.B.

2000-01-01

This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

A Study on the efficient alleviation of domestic oil price at international oil crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Young Ku [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-01-01

For alleviating domestic oil price when the international oil crisis happens, the government has been reacted directly such as using stored oil or alleviation fund. Although the release of stored oil works for short-term depending on the type of crisis, concerning that most of oil crisis had been resulted in temporary supply reduction rather than long-term supply suspension, utilizing the domestic alleviation fund is regarded more economical than storing oil. However, it has been suggested to compare efficiencies of alleviation fund and a futures market regarding the perspectives that using alleviation fund is more inefficient than utilizing a futures market. Moreover, the direct management by government is less efficient than indirect management. As an efficient way to alleviate domestic oil price at international oil crisis, this study presents an effective utilization of trading in futures of crude oil. There is a high probability of occurrence of this kind of oil crisis by judging from the world political situation and the trend of oil market. In such a case, the government as a crude oil importer should minimize the stored oil and utilize a futures market effectively. The subject of alleviating oil price by trading in futures is an oil supplier, such as oil refining companies or oil importers not the government as a prerequisite. Furthermore, the government should approve to include appropriate cost for preparing oil price alleviation in the oil price and it is required that such a government policy should be consistent. (author). 41 refs., 3 figs., 15 Tabs.

The status of world oil depletion at the end of 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, C.J.

1996-01-01

An assessment is made of the reserves of conventional and non-conventional oil in the world as of the end of 1995. This takes into account the impacts of new discovery and advances in technology to make plausible estimates. Care is taken to clearly define conventional and non-conventional oil and whether or not natural gas liquids are included. (Author)

World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichene, Noureddine

2002-01-01

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

Critical role of Middle East in world petroleum supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riva, J.P., Jr.

1992-01-01

The location, production, and transportation of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to good international relationships. Since most of the remaining world's oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, the region's critical role in the future is accordingly over-emphasized

The PTRC : a world leader in enhanced heavy oil recovery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kristoff, B.; Knudsen, R.; Asghari, K. [Petroleum Technology Research Centre, Regina, SK (Canada); Pappas, E.S. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

2006-07-01

The Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC) fosters knowledge and progressive technologies to enhance the recovery of petroleum. This paper discussed the PTRC's leadership in enhanced heavy oil recovery, with particular reference to core research program such as heavy oil (post) cold flow; enhanced waterflooding; miscible/immiscible solvent injection; and near-wellbore conformance control. Other projects that were presented included a joint implementation of vapour extraction project (JIVE); and the IEA greenhouse gas (GHG) Weyburn-Midale carbon dioxide monitoring and storage project. The JIVE project will develop, demonstrate and evaluate solvent vapour extraction processes for enhanced oil recovery in heavy oil reservoirs. The GHG Weyburn-Midale project, launched in 2000, studies carbon dioxide injection and storage in partially depleted oil reservoirs. It was concluded that the PTRC continues to develop technologies to meet the world's energy requirements while mitigating both immediate and long-term environmental impacts. 4 figs.

The Middle East: Its role in world oil. A survey of the issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radetski, M.

1992-01-01

The importance of the Middle East oil resource base is exceptional, in quantitative as well as economic terms. A review is presented of this resource base, and the economic and political factors associated with it. In 1990 oil from the Middle East accounted for 27% of world output, and accounts for 65% of proven world oil reserves. The viability of OPEC's role in controlling market prices is discussed, and it is proposed that high prices such as those in the early 1980s are unlikely to re-occur, and that control of capacity to keep prices above competitive levels but not high enough to induce large scale expansion outside the region is the rational course of action. Political instability in the Middle East and its destabilizing impact on oil supply is discussed. 12 refs., 2 tabs

Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

2011-01-01

This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

2010-01-01

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

2016-01-01

Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

The impact of the Gulf crisis on world oil and OPEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mabro, R.

1994-01-01

The 1990-91 Gulf conflict involved oil as a major factor or significant objective from the viewpoint of all countries involved. Low oil prices, favored by Kuwait, limited Iraqi revenues. Iraq pressed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise oil prices, leading to tensions with Kuwait, with which Iraq also had long-standing territorial claims. The desire to protect access to the world's largest oil supplies was a factor in the USA's rapid reaction to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The initial response was an embargo on exports from Iraq and occupied Kuwait; this removed from the world oil market an estimated 4.5-5 million bbl/d. Although the spot price of oil rose to $27/bbl two weeks after the invasion, the market had significant supply-side flexibility. Major increases in output from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates almost entirely compensated for the lost production, stopping the upward movement of oil prices. These peaked in September 1990, stabilized, and fell dramatically in January 1991. The fall was helped by speculator selloffs, the perception that Iraq would soon be defeated under the recently begun air attacks, and the USA decision to sell from its strategic reserves. One effect of the crisis was a disturbance of output distribution among OPEC members; the Saudis and Emirates were unwillling to give up higher output levels to accommodate the return of Kuwait, thus making OPEC production quotas more difficult to achieve. Another effect was an increase in the political dependence of the Arab Gulf countries on the Western powers, particularly the USA, as the only credible guarantor of regional security. This further inhibits moves by OPEC to control oil prices or production

EnerFuture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

Exploring crude oil production and export capacity of the OPEC Middle East countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Voudouris, Vlasios; Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios; Rigby, Robert; Di Maio, Carlo

2012-01-01

As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products. - Highlights: ► We simulate the future scenario of crude oil export and production using ACEGES. ► The simulated results are analyzed using the GAMLSS framework. ► The peak points of oil export and production will come early in this century. ► The OPCE Middle East will produce most of the world crude oil in the near future. ► These countries will continuously be the key players in the crude oil markets.

The oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alba, P.

2000-01-01

Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichene, N.

2002-01-01

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

Development and supply of the world energy requirement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulz, E.

1981-01-01

Recently published research reveals that the world energy requirement can and must grow more slowly than previously anticipated. In order to supply developing nations with the energy necessary for the expansion of their economies, energy saving and oil substitution assume greater significance in the industrialised countries such as the Federal Republic. Future fulfillment of the world energy requirement will be characterised by escalating costs for supply, especially for the current main energy carrier oil, on the one hand and by increased use of coal and nuclear energy as well unconventional fossils such as regenerative energies on the other. Nuclear energy and thus the electricity economy must play a key function in the future energy supply of industrial nations such as Federal Germany. Nuclear energy enables, both directly and indirectly, the substitution of oil in the heat market, supplies the process heat required for coal production and, due to the ease of storage or uranium, provides a hedge against fluctuations on the world energy market. (orig.) [de

The near future prospects of Russian oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehtimaeki, H.

1995-01-01

The central role of oil, natural gas and coal production in Russian national economy, and the active role of the country in international trade of fuels are well-known facts, the development of which has also remarkable effect on the western industrialised countries - especially due to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union followed by the economical reconstruction. This review deals with the structure of the Russian oil industry and the future prospects of it. (3 tabs.)

A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jianliang; Feng Lianyong; Zhao Lin; Snowden, Simon; Wang Xu

2011-01-01

This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers. - Highlights: ► Hubbert model and Generalized Weng model are introduced and compared in this article. ► We conclude each model's characteristic and scopes and conditions of applicable. ► We get the same peak production and time of world's oil by applying two models. ► Multicyclic Generalized Weng model is proven slightly better than Hubbert model.

The oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amic, E.; Lautard, P.

1999-01-01

This chapter examines the structure of the oil industry and the impacts of the oil markets on the hedging strategies of the energy consumers, the oil company, and the energy derivatives' provider. An introduction to market perspectives is presented, and the hedging operations in the jet fuel market in the airline sector are discussed. Trading and risk management within an oil company, the derivatives provider, trading derivatives in a multi-dimensional world, locational risks, and the modelling of term structure and the role of storage are considered. Industrial spreads and the role of refining, future market developments and market strategies for crude oil and oil products, and marketing packages and market risk are addressed

Decrease in oil prices: which consequences for the World economy and for France?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camatte, Hadrien; Darmet-Cucchiarini, Maxime; Gillet, Thomas; Masson, Emmanuelle; Meslin, Olivier; Padieu, Ysaline; Tavin, Alexandre

2016-04-01

Based of various statistics, this public publication first describes that, since summer 2014, oil price has been sharply decreasing (70 per cent) and keeping on decreasing due to a still abundant supply (with non conventional oil in the USA, and a still high production by OPEC countries) and a rather disappointing demand. It also outlines that production commitments stated by producers are still uncertain. This paper then notices that this oil price decrease could remain positive for World economy, but that some short term factors still impair these effects. This positive effect is indeed slow to appear in importing countries. Negative effects in exporting countries are emphasized by local economic policies. Moreover, there could be a transmission of this oil price decrease to the financial sphere, oil price decrease makes monetary policy more complex, and the USA are increasingly exposed to the energy sector activity. The third part shows that oil prices have positive effects on the French economy. They favour a wealth transfer from the rest of the world to the French economy, positively impacts companies margins and household purchase power on the short and medium terms, induces external effects as it also affects trade partners, and could result in an activity gain in the finance bill

The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wirl, F.

1994-01-01

The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

Mahdi Elmandjra and the Future of the Muslim World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wan Fariza Alyati Wan Zakaria

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The increasing problems and challenges facing the Muslims and the Muslim world nowadays have raised serious concern about the future of the Muslims and the Muslim World among many Muslim scholars. The post-Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979 had always been seen as the landmark of the rising discourses over the future of Islam, Muslims and the Muslim world. Mahdi Elmandjra, a prominent sociologist and futurist, is one of the Muslim scholars who consistently discuss about the issue and urge the Muslims to take responsibility to create a better future in a systematic way and not to fall into the vicious cycle of misfortunes. This paper aims at discussing Elmandjra’s views on this issue and underscoring the contribution and significance of such discourse within contemporary development.

Taxing the difference: World oil market projections 1994-2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.I.; MacKay, E.J.

1994-01-01

The likely impacts of key uncertainties affecting the oil market were assessed, and reference price path to aid industry and governments in their investment and policy decisions, was provided. The reference market outlook corresponded to an annual growth of around 1.5% and a price of $ 18.00 per barrel. The greatest weakness of the market projections were found to be the expected performance of petroleum product demand growth. There was strong evidence that governments of major oil consuming countries had taken action to weaken the response of petroleum product demand to declines in the crude price, by driving an ever increasing fiscal wedge between the crude price and the corresponding product prices.The outcome is an asymmetry in demand response to crude price movements. Incorporation of this asymmetry into the world oil market model could have some disturbing results: under the reference case market assumptions, continuation of this tax and pricing policy would not only eliminate the price gains projected, but move the oil price below current levels on a sustained basis. The study concluded that OPEC members and the governments of the major industrialized oil consuming countries should strive to reach an agreement to avoid catastrophic price instability. refs., tabs., figs

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

OpenAIRE

Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

2017-01-01

Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

Oil sands development in a carbon constrained world

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDougall, J. [Alberta Research Council, Devon, AB (Canada)

2006-07-01

The challenges facing oilsands development in Alberta were discussed in this PowerPoint presentation. In 2005, 71 per cent of Alberta's export value was derived from energy and mining. The author addressed the issue that resource based economies have rarely succeeded in the long term. He then demonstrated how such economies could capture value from technology. The primary focus was on the goal to develop and adapt greenhouse gas (GHG) transformational technologies that will break the link between hydrocarbon energy use and GHG emissions. The role of oil sands in this endeavour was also discussed. Alberta's oil sands are the world's largest hydrocarbon resource, with 315 b bbls proven reserves, and 2.5 t bbls potential reserves. As an important economic driver for Alberta, oil sands production is expected to grow significantly in the next 2 decades. Since bitumen production is more energy intensive than conventional oil, the industry is faced with the challenge of sustainable development. Concentrated GHG emissions create opportunities to proceed with long-term oil sands development with a sustainable level of GHG emissions, but technology and infrastructure are needed to take advantage of them. Current carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage projects in Alberta were highlighted. The economic potential of geological storage of CO{sub 2} through acid gas injection or deep disposal was discussed in terms of enhanced oil recovery, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, enhanced gas recovery and cost avoidance of CO{sub 2} per tonne. It was emphasized that a long-term vision and commitment is needed to balance with short term problems solving and longer-term strategic agendas. tabs., figs.

The outlook for US oil dependence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

1998-01-01

Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

Future role of the national oil companies in the world petroleum industry. [Of Arab states

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taher, A H

1977-11-01

The history and role of national (i.e., multinational companies owned by an oil-exporting or -producing country) oil companies are outlined as they relate to international political and economic events. The governments of oil-exporting countries saw national oil companies as a way to gain some control over prices and revenues and to participate in development and marketing decisions. National companies can be more responsive to government policies than multinational companies during times of shortages. They provide a business arm to the government, which is politically involved in supply negotiations with other governments. National companies are felt to have a more stable position in terms of supplies, although their supplies may not be any more abundant. Multinationals will need increasingly selective investment activities after 1980 as government regulation and intervention changes market conditions. National companies may want to turn the marketing of crude oil over to the multinationals, while cooperating with them in exploration projects and the transfer of alternative energy technology. (DCK)

Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

1994-01-01

This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shokoohi, Zainab

2011-01-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. - Research Highlights: →We investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index. →The crude oil price has indirect effect on the world GDP via its impacts on food production index. →The food production index is the source of causation for CPI and GDP is affected by CPI. →The results confirm an indirect effect among oil price, food price principal component.

The future of Alberta's oil and gas: Long-term strategies necessary to sustain markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2002-01-01

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicts that based on current combustion and depending on world oil prices, Canadian oil sands can supply North American demand for 40 years and Canadian natural gas can meet North American requirements for 20 years. Natural gas production in the U.S. is greater in total energy output than oil production of the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. At the same time the U.S. gas industry is confronting a unique and profound combination of events, namely it is facing the first true shortage of deliverable reserves in its history. This may be harsh news for the consumer, however, for Alberta's oil and gas industry, the new world energy order has the potential to be a huge blessing. With relatively large, unexploited oil and gas reserves and a next door neighbour with the world's most voracious appetite for fossil fuels, it is inevitable that much of this shortage is going to be satisfied by oil and gas from Canadian sources. Nevertheless, there are some barriers to be overcome. The greatest barriers to an assured U. S. market for Canadian oil and gas is competition from Venezuelan heavy crude and synthetic crude and light sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico. To assure a ready market for Canadian heavy crude in the U. S. Midwest, Canadian producers need to be pro-active in working with U. S. refiners to develop new conversion capacity, or develop upgrading in Canada. Mexico and Venezuela have been successfully participating in major U. S. expansions in coker projects to allow projects to run heavy crude. This will eventually result in an additional 600,000 barrels per day of heavy crude available on the U. S. market, putting further pressure on Canadian markets. The challenge is for Albertan producers to undertake similar strategies with U. S. Midwest refiners for heavy and synthetic crude. Long-term supply arrangements appear to be the only way to induce American Midwest refiners to make more investment to process

Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hibbard Junior, W.R.

1981-01-01

Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

Oil Dependence: The Value of R{ampersand}D

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greene, D.L.

1997-07-01

Over the past quarter century the United States` dependence on oil has cost its economy on the order of $5 trillion. Oil dependence is defined as economically significant consumption of oil, given price inelastic demand in the short and long run and given the ability of the OPEC cartel to use market power to influence oil prices. Although oil prices have been lower and more stable over the past decade, OPEC still holds the majority of the world`s conventional oil resources according to the best available estimates. OPEC`s share of the world oil market is likely to grow significantly in the future,restoring much if not all of their former market power. Other than market share, the key determinants of OPEC`s market power are the long and short run price elasticities of world oil demand and supply. These elasticities depend critically on the technologies of oil supply and demand, especially the technology of energy use in transportation. Research and development can change these elasticities in fundamental ways, and given the nature of the problem,the government has an important role to play in supporting such research.

The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils; L'industrie du raffinage et le devenir des fiouls lourds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soleille, S

2004-01-15

The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

From rocks to oil : researchers become the first in the world to determine the age of oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crawshaw, C

2005-06-10

This article discussed the discovery of a method to accurately determine the age of oil. The discovery was made by two geologists at the University of Alberta, and provides critical information about the formation of oil which will help to better understand oil deposits. The scientists have suggested that the giant oil sand deposits in Alberta were formed 112 million years ago and not 60 million years ago as was previously thought. They used isotopes of rhenium and osmium, elements found in trace amounts in oil, to pinpoint when oil formed in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), which contains much of the world's oil sands. It was previously thought that the time at which oil was produced from a rock and migrated as fluid could be deduced from looking at geologic relationships. This is the first time that a direct determination using any isotopic method has be applied to determine age. The research findings are expected to change the way geologists understand the evolution of the basin. It was concluded that while the discovery answers some questions about hydrocarbons, many others remain. However, the presence of an absolute number will help geologists to re-evaluate other knowledge. 1 fig.

Impacts of oil disturbances: lessons from experience. [1973-1974 Oil Crisis; 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution; 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq War

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curlee, T R

1983-01-01

An analysis of the impacts of previous oil distrubances can be used to suggest the impacts of future oil disturbances. This paper reviews how the 1973-1974 Oil Crisis, the 1978-1979 Iranian Revolution, and the 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq War impacted the US and world oil markets. Various measures of impacts are considered, such as impacts on physical flows of crude and products, crude and product price changes on the US and world markets, impacts on stocks of crude and products, and impacts on refiners' inputs and outputs. Various macroeconomic indicators, such as gross national product, inflation rates, and unemployment, are also considered. Of particular interest in this study are the impacts that oil disturbances have had (and could have) on the availabilities of particular crude types and the abilities of US refiners to process crudes of various types in the short run. In addition, this paper reviews how the actions of the consuming countries and the major oil companies affected the impacts of past disturbances. The paper briefly discusses the likely causes and impacts of future oil distrubances and summarizes the lessons to be learned from past reactions to oil disturbances.

The future of oil and hydrocarbon man

CERN Document Server

Campbell, Colin

1999-01-01

Man appeared on the planet about four million years ago, and by 1850 numbered about one billion Ten came Hydrocarbon man. World population has since increased six-fold. After the oil price shocks of the 1970s, people asked "when will production peak?". It is not easy to answer this question because of the very poor database. Reserves and the many different hydrocarbon categories are poorly defined, reporting practices are ambiguous, revisions are not backdated...

Oil and Beyond Expanding British Imperial Aspirations, Emerging Oil Capitalism, and the Challenge of Social Questions in the First World War

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atabaki, Touraj; Ehsani, Kaveh; Bley, Helmut; Kremers, Anorthe

2014-01-01

With the onset of the First World War, the British state crafted a new strategy of shifting its industry, military and navel units from consuming coal to oil energy. This transition effectively turned Persian oil into a strategic military as well as economic resource of fundamental importance to the

Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

Soviet woes, Middle East crisis cut first half world crude oil production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that the Persian Gulf crisis and the faltering Soviet oil industry spawned a 2.8% dive in world oil production during first half 1991 compared with the same period a year ago. Total world flow averaged 59.781 million b/d, down 1.728 million b/d from first half 1990. First half Soviet production fell 1.13 million b/d from a year ago to 10.6 million b/d. Production among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the first half averaged 22.927 million b/d, down 1.099 million b/d. Non-OPEC production averaged 36.854 million b/d, down from the 1990 first half average of 37.483 million b/d. OPEC's share of total world production fell to 38.4% for first half 1991 from 39.1% for first half last year. In 1979 OPEC production was 49.1% of total world production. OPEC's share dropped to 29.9% of the world total in 1985 and had been moving back up since then. OPEC set new production quotas totaling 22.31 million b/d, reflecting the curtailment of production from Kuwait and Iraq. Production in the first half of 1991 was 2.8% above quota

Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata K.

2018-02-01

This article explores the changing interdependence between crude oil and world food prices at varying time scales using detrended cross correlation analysis that would answer whether the interdependence (if any) differed significantly between pre and post-crisis period. Unlike the previous studies that exogenously imposed break dates for dividing the time series into sub-samples, we tested whether the mean of the crude oil price changed over time to find evidence for structural changes in the crude oil price series and endogenously determine three break dates with minimum Bayesian information criterion scores. Accordingly, we divided the entire study period in four sample periods - January 1990 to October 1999, November 1999 to February 2005, March 2005 to September 2010, and October 2010 to July 2016, where the third sample period coincided with the period of food crisis and enabled us to compare the fuel-food interdependence across pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results of the detrended cross correlation analysis extended corroborative evidence for increasing positive interdependence between the crude oil price and world food price index along with its sub-categories, namely dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. The article ends with the implications of these results in the domain of food policy and the financial sector.

Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niloo Hojjati

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this study seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, we extract firm-level information from publicly traded Canadian companies in order to establish the location of their activities around the globe.1 The data collected in the “Where in the World” (hereafter WIW project are presented through a publicly accessible interactive world map, which allows users to explore a specific country or region over time. This map can be accessed online at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teaching-training/extractiveresource-governance/ergp-map/. For background information regarding the WIW project, including an extensive overview of the methodology, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Where-in-the-WorldHojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. For a summarized overview of the annual data gathered in 2011, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/ uploads/2017/06/2011-Where-in-the-World-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. This report, as in the earlier report in this series, presents an extensive account of the global presence of Canadian oil and gas (hereafter O&G companies in the 2012 year of study.2 In total, 228 Canadian O&G companies conducted operations in 85 countries in 2012, extending their presence to every region of the world. While North America continued to serve as the primary destination for Canadian exploration and production activities, the role of Canadian O&G service companies increased significantly in the Middle Eastern oil and gas industry, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman. This report begins with a regional overview of the international activities of Canadian exploration and production (E&P companies, followed by a summary of the level of activities on a

World coal prices and future energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, J.

1992-01-01

The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

OPEC's optimal crude oil price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horn, Manfred

2004-01-01

OPEC decided to stabilise oil prices within a range of 22-28 US Dollar/barrel of crude oil. Such an oil-price-level is far beyond the short and long run marginal costs of oil production, beyond even that in regions with particularly high costs. Nevertheless, OPEC may achieve its goal if world demand for oil increases substantially in the future and oil resources outside the OPEC are not big enough to accordingly increase production. In this case OPEC, which controls about 78% of world oil reserves, has to supply a large share of that demand increase. If we assume OPEC will behave as a partial monopolist on the oil market, which takes into consideration the reaction of the other producers to its own sales strategy, it can reach its price target. Lower prices before 2020 are probable only if the OPEC cartel breaks up. Higher prices are possible if production outside OPEC is inelastic as assumed by some geologists, but they would probably stimulate the production of unconventional oil based on oil sand or coal. Crude oil prices above 30 US Dollar/barrel are therefore probably not sustainable for a long period. (Author)

Charting the new world order: proceedings of the 15. CERI international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-10-01

The 15th International Oil and Gas Markets Conference, organized by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) and held in Calgary, AB, provided a wide variety of opportunities for discussion of the global oil and gas market outlook, international oil and gas market strategies and corporate planning in the new world order, competition for investments, the re-emergence of the geopolitics of energy, energy in the Americas, international gas market strategies, and the financing of Canadian international operations. More than 100 delegates from around the world attended the conference to hear some 20 presentations. refs., tabs., figs

Asian oil refining. Demand growth and deregulation - an uncertain future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sameer Nawaz.

1996-01-01

The objective of the report is to identify the most important features of the oil refining industry in Asia. Major developments in consumption patterns changes in regional importance of countries are discussed, highlighting potential future developments. The first chapter introduces the various refining processes and presents a simple model for the analysis of complex refineries. Chapter 2 examines the development of the Asian refining industry against a background of economic growth and analyses trends in consumption of all products in Asian countries. In Chapter 3, the key issues concerning the refining industry are examined, among them the forces driving consumption, including the importance of economic development, and electricity and transport demand. The importance of product imports and international trade is discussed, and the extent of government involvement and the effects of changing retail and market prices are analysed. Chapter 4 looks at the strategies that oil and gas companies are following in the Asian refining industry. Particular significance is attached to the vertical integration of the oil majors, Japanese and Middle Eastern oil companies. A brief overview of the importance of the petrochemical industry is presented. The countries of Asia that are involved in the refining industry are profiled in Chapter 5. The future trend in oil consumption is examined in Chapter 6. There follows a brief discussion of the plans to expand crude refining capacity in the various countries and a forecast of the state of overcapacity which will result. In the final chapter, brief profiles of some of the most important companies in the Asian refining industry are presented, discussing their major activities and future plans. (Author)

World energy outlook 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-07

The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

World energy outlook 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-11-07

The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linghui Tang; Shawkat Hammoudeh

2002-01-01

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band. (author)

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Linghui; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

2002-01-01

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band

A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

2015-01-01

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

Global oil company profiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

Global Oil Company Profiles provides a comprehensive review of 50 of the top oil companies in the world. Each chapter is devoted to an individual company, providing an invaluable insight into the organisation, its structure and operations. Using the most recent data available, the report offers an up-to-date analysis of performance and future direction, as well as a unique benchmarking system for each company profiled. (author)

Hydropower and the world's energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-11-01

The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Eberling, George G.

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

Consuming the world's energy: Update series. Energy efficiency trends in oil countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This issue of Energy Detente addresses energy efficiency in selected oil producing countries over time and compare the varying effects of important crude oil price changes. As economies around the world heighten their benefits from conservation and efficient use of energy, oil producers will be crucial examples not only for their own sakes, but for consuming countries dependent upon their exports. In this sense, their potential for leadership and vision seems greater than ever. Specifically, 6 oil-exporting countries are featured: Australia, Kuwait, Indonesia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of February 21, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, February, 1992 edition

Forecasting Palm Oil Price Movements In Malaysia: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Palm Oil Futures Market.

OpenAIRE

Amran, Zulfathi

2010-01-01

The palm oil industry is one of the main commodity industries in South East Asia. This is the case for the two main producers and exporters of crude palm oil in the world, Malaysia and Indonesia, and thus there is an importance placed on the trading of the commodity in Malaysia, especially for hedging purposes for the producers. This is because; the main use of the product is for exporting purposes rather than for consumption, and thus it is important if there is a tool that the producers or ...

Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

2011-01-01

This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

Recent and future developments of the oil industry in Russian Federation and more particularly in the Republic of Baskortostan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garifullin, R.

2001-09-01

The objective of the thesis is to analyse the actual situation in the Russian oil industry and to envisage basic ways if its future development. The first chapter evaluates the place of the former USSR and Russia in the world and particularly European systems of energy supply. The three next chapters analyse the currents situation in the sectors of oil exploration and production, logistics and refining in Russia. The fifth chapter aims to figure out the perspectives of the refining industry taking into account the evolution of demand for basic petroleum products and the production capacities. Optimisation of refining and production volumes between the Russian refineries is done by minimising the transportation cost between the refineries and consuming regions by using linear programming. The last chapter analyses the regional impacts of the oil industry taking the Republic of Baskortostan as example. The contribution of the oil industry to regional development is evaluated in the framework of the export base theory using the Input-Output analysis as mathematical tool. (author)

Shanghai and Hong Kong Join Efforts for Oil Futures Exchanges

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2003-01-01

@@ Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) announced in midApril they will jointly introduce crude oil futures. The two exchanges will jointly develop an energy derivatives market that serves both Chinese and international investors,according to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the two exchanges.

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Electricity generation in the world and Ukraine: Current status and future developments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Zvorykin

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Electricity generation is the key factor for advances in industry, agriculture, technology and the level of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for country independence. In general, electricity can be generated from: 1 non-renewable energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2 renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and wave power. However, the major energy sources for electricity generation in the world are: 1 thermal power – primarily using coal (~40% and secondarily natural gas (~23%; 2 “large” hydro power plants (~17% and 3 nuclear power from various reactor designs (~11%. The rest of the energy sources for electricity generation is from using oil (~4% and renewable sources such as biomass, wind, geothermal and solar (~5%, which have just visible impact in selected countries. In addition, energy sources, such as wind and solar, and some others, like tidal and wave-power, are intermittent from depending on Mother Nature. And cannot be used alone for industrial electricity generation. Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation in the country. Currently, Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs generate about 45.5% of the total electricity followed with coal generation ‒ 38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants – 5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on four NPPs (15 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs including the largest one in Europe ‒ Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. Two of these 15 reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are ~45-year old several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry

Oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamm, Keith

1992-01-01

The two major political events of 1991 produced a much less dramatic reaction in the global oil industry than might have been expected. The economic dislocation in the former USSR caused oil production to fall sharply but this was largely offset by a concurrent fall in demand. Within twelve months of the invasion of Kuwait, crude oil prices had returned to their pre-invasion level; there was no shortage of supply due to the ability of some producers to boost their output rapidly. Details are given of world oil production and developments in oil demand. Demand stagnated in 1991 due to mainly to the economic chaos in the former USSR and a slowdown in sales in the USA; this has produced problems for the future of the refining industry. By contrast, the outlook for the natural gas industry is much more buoyant. Most clean air or carbon emissions legislation is designed to promote the use of gas rather than other hydrocarbons. World gas production rose by 1.5% in 1991; details by production on a country by country basis are given. (UK)

Reducing US Oil Dependence Using Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ayoub, Fadi; Arnaout, Georges M.

2011-01-01

People across the world are addicted to oil; as a result, the instability of oil prices and the shortage of oil reserves have influenced human behaviors and global businesses. Today, the United States makes up only 5% of the global population but consumes 25% of the. world total energy. Most of this energy is generated from fossil fuels in the form of electricity. The contribution of this paper is to examine the possibilities of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energies to generate electricity as well as to examine other methods to reduce oil and gas consumption. We propose a system dynamics model in an attempt to predict the future US dependence on fossil fuels by using renewable energy resources such as, nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro powers. Based on the findings of our model, the study expects to provide insights towards promising solutions of the oil dependency problem.

World crude oil prices and the North Sea after the Gulf conflict

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemp, A.

1992-01-01

A large computerised financial model has been developed to simulate future activity in the United Kingdom continental shelf. Primary inputs into the model include all the publicly available information on currently producing fields relating to their historic and expected production rates, investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. From a variety of sources information has also been gathered on all new discoveries which have not yet been developed or even fully appraised in some cases. Estimates were made of the time periods at which such fields would be ready for development work and production to commence. For these future fields estimates were made of the likely investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. In making such calculations only limited technological progress was assumed. The bank of future fields is also conservative as it does not include any new discoveries from further exploration successes. Key inputs into the financial model are future oil and gas price scenarios. In this study, three price scenarios have been chosen for investigation - a base case, a high price case and a low price case. From the analysis, the possible consequences of a very modest real growth in oil and gas prices on the development of the very large numbers of discovered, but as yet undeveloped, oil and gas fields in the United Kingdom continental shelf are presented. (author)

The world oil market is not one great pool: A reply to Rodriguez and Williams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.J.

1993-01-01

In a paper by Rodriguez and Williams (Energy Studies Review, 1993), the case for a single-pool world oil market is put forward. Criticisms of the assumptions and conclusions are offered. To counter the paper's assumption that antitrust is the relevant metric for measuring the extent of geographic markets, it is argued that for energy security policy decisions, it is the economic market which matters. The paper does show that the world oil market is indeed unified in the long run, but this is not relevant to the short term, the relevant time-frame for energy security decisions. The paper's choice of spot market data for its cointegration analysis is also criticized by using several examples of pricing decisions that would not make sense in a unified world market but which do make sense in a regionalized market. It is also unclear how representative spot prices are of the oil market. Finally, the conclusions of the paper that favor policies focusing on secure vs insecure import sources and supplier diversification are seen as unsupported by the paper's statistical findings. 15 refs

Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

2006-01-01

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carson, M.M.

1997-01-01

Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2009-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiévet, L.; Forró, Z.; Cauwels, P.; Sornette, D.

2015-01-01

We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production. - Highlights: • Two step methodology to forecast a countries oil production. • Nonlinear extrapolation of the performance of individual fields. • Stochastic model of the frequency of future discoveries. • Backtest starting in 2008 of the methodology. • Improvement upon standard extrapolation of aggregate production

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

Drilling, alternative fuels and efficiency. Can the United States wean itself from imported oil?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fairey, Philip [Florida Solar Energy Center, 1679 Clearlake Road, Cocoa, FL 32922-5703 (United States)

2009-04-15

Perhaps the most daunting challenge the next generation of Americans will face is what President Bush called our 'addiction to oil'. The challenge is to find the means to provide for our transportation needs in the face of declining world oil production. Perhaps the central question is whether we will export the great wealth of America to foreign countries in payment for oil before we tackle the grand challenge of creating a new transportation future that does not rely completely on oil. This article presents the historical facts relative to America's oil demand and domestic and world oil production resources. These historical trends are used to construct a scenario of future supply and demand for oil in the US. A range of existing technologies, which can reduce the need for petroleum imports, are then evaluated using wedges analysis, giving projections to the year 2030. (author)

Drilling, alternative fuels and efficiency: Can the United States wean itself from imported oil?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fairey, Philip [Florida Solar Energy Center, 1679 Clearlake Road, Cocoa, FL 32922-5703 (United States)], E-mail: pfairey@fsec.ucf.edu

2009-04-15

Perhaps the most daunting challenge the next generation of Americans will face is what President Bush called our 'addiction to oil'. The challenge is to find the means to provide for our transportation needs in the face of declining world oil production. Perhaps the central question is whether we will export the great wealth of America to foreign countries in payment for oil before we tackle the grand challenge of creating a new transportation future that does not rely completely on oil. This article presents the historical facts relative to America's oil demand and domestic and world oil production resources. These historical trends are used to construct a scenario of future supply and demand for oil in the US. A range of existing technologies, which can reduce the need for petroleum imports, are then evaluated using wedges analysis, giving projections to the year 2030.

Drilling, alternative fuels and efficiency. Can the United States wean itself from imported oil?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairey, Philip

2009-01-01

Perhaps the most daunting challenge the next generation of Americans will face is what President Bush called our 'addiction to oil'. The challenge is to find the means to provide for our transportation needs in the face of declining world oil production. Perhaps the central question is whether we will export the great wealth of America to foreign countries in payment for oil before we tackle the grand challenge of creating a new transportation future that does not rely completely on oil. This article presents the historical facts relative to America's oil demand and domestic and world oil production resources. These historical trends are used to construct a scenario of future supply and demand for oil in the US. A range of existing technologies, which can reduce the need for petroleum imports, are then evaluated using wedges analysis, giving projections to the year 2030. (author)

Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, Steve

2006-01-01

The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

Oil reserves are a dynamic quantity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aeberli, O. E.

2006-01-01

In this exclusive interview with Rolf Hartl, head of the Oil Association of Switzerland, questions on developments in the consumption area and on future perspectives for the oil business are dealt with. The extent of oil reserves is looked at and the opinions of various experts on the subject are discussed. The 'energy-hunger' of China and third-world countries is discussed and the question is asked as to whether the maximum of oil-extraction has already been reached. Price developments and their possible effect on consumption are discussed, as are the effects of political conflicts on price developments. Finally, perspectives for the development of new oil discoveries are looked at

Oil palm genome sequence reveals divergence of interfertile species in old and new worlds

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Rajinder; Ong-Abdullah, Meilina; Low, Eng-Ti Leslie; Manaf, Mohamad Arif Abdul; Rosli, Rozana; Nookiah, Rajanaidu; Ooi, Leslie Cheng-Li; Ooi, Siew–Eng; Chan, Kuang-Lim; Halim, Mohd Amin; Azizi, Norazah; Nagappan, Jayanthi; Bacher, Blaire; Lakey, Nathan; Smith, Steven W; He, Dong; Hogan, Michael; Budiman, Muhammad A; Lee, Ernest K; DeSalle, Rob; Kudrna, David; Goicoechea, Jose Louis; Wing, Rod; Wilson, Richard K; Fulton, Robert S; Ordway, Jared M; Martienssen, Robert A; Sambanthamurthi, Ravigadevi

2013-01-01

Oil palm is the most productive oil-bearing crop. Planted on only 5% of the total vegetable oil acreage, palm oil accounts for 33% of vegetable oil, and 45% of edible oil worldwide, but increased cultivation competes with dwindling rainforest reserves. We report the 1.8 gigabase (Gb) genome sequence of the African oil palm Elaeis guineensis, the predominant source of worldwide oil production. 1.535 Gb of assembled sequence and transcriptome data from 30 tissue types were used to predict at least 34,802 genes, including oil biosynthesis genes and homologues of WRINKLED1 (WRI1), and other transcriptional regulators1, which are highly expressed in the kernel. We also report the draft sequence of the S. American oil palm Elaeis oleifera, which has the same number of chromosomes (2n=32) and produces fertile interspecific hybrids with E. guineensis2, but appears to have diverged in the new world. Segmental duplications of chromosome arms define the palaeotetraploid origin of palm trees. The oil palm sequence enables the discovery of genes for important traits as well as somaclonal epigenetic alterations which restrict the use of clones in commercial plantings3, and thus helps achieve sustainability for biofuels and edible oils, reducing the rainforest footprint of this tropical plantation crop. PMID:23883927

Microbial ecology of methanogenic crude oil biodegradation; from microbial consortia to heavy oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Head, Ian M.; Maguire, Michael J.; Sherry, Angela; Grant, Russell; Gray, Neil D.; Aitken, Carolyn M.; Martin Jones, D.; Oldenburg, Thomas B.P.; Larter, Stephen R. [Petroleum Research Group, Geosciences, University of Calgary (Canada)

2011-07-01

This paper presents the microbial ecology of methanogenic crude oil biodegradation. Biodegraded petroleum reservoirs are one of the most dramatic indications of the deep biosphere. It is estimated that heavy oil and oil sands will account for a considerable amount of energy production in the future. Carbon, a major resource for deep subsurface microorganisms, and energy are contained in large quantities in petroleum reservoirs. The aerobic to anaerobic paradigm shift is explained. A key process for in-situ oil biodegradation in petroleum reservoirs is methanogenesis. New paradigms for in-reservoir crude oil biodegradation are discussed. Variations in anaerobic degradation of crude oil hydrocarbons are also discussed. A graph shows the different patterns of crude oil biodegradation under sulfate-reducing and methanogenic conditions. Alternative anaerobic alkane activation mechanisms are also shown. From the study, it can be concluded that methanogenic crude oil degradation is of global importance and led to the establishment of the world's enormous heavy oil deposits.

The oil price; Le prix du petrole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alba, P. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France)

2000-05-01

Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

Dynamics of world oil crops market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Marija

2012-01-01

Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabre, S.

1991-01-01

Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2011? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? The International Energy Agencys (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEAs monthly Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop in the next five years. The forecasts look in detail at product demand and the supply potential from all the firmly planned individual upstream and downstream projects around the world. The results provide invaluable insights on vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. The rapid pace of change in the oil market means that forecasts can become outdated very quickly. This interim update provides the opportunity to rebase the data and forecasts in the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report and to discuss and analyse new issues affecting the oil industry. Policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following trends in the oil market should find this report extremely useful.

The Environmental Challenges for the Oil Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Del Manso, F.

1998-01-01

Oil has been and will continue to be indispensable to assure the growth of the world economy, but it is also responsible to have an impact on the environment. One of the most important challenges for the future, in particular for the oil sector, is to make this growth sustainable for the environment. To do this, refineries must plan a huge amount of investments for the next future to modify substantially their industrial structures to reformulate transportation fuels (diesel and gasoline) to comply the new limits for the emissions generated during the production and distribution of oil products and to apply new safety rules in order to improve the compatibility of the refineries with the territory. To fulfil all this actions the oil sector will have to face very high costs without any certainty of the return of investments, due to the extreme uncertainty to forecast the future oil demand in Italy after the Kyoto Protocol. To be ready within the year 2005, Italian refineries must decide now to invest, but they are not sure to have a market in the future for the products that they are going to produce [it

Merger and acquisition in the international oil industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Imai, Yoshiichi

1988-07-01

Outlines are given of the background and evaluation of recent giant mergers and acquisitions in the international oil industry and of future trends of them. The petroleum exporting countries or OPEC nationalized oil resourses in the first half of 1970's and acquired the crude oil deposits that had been controlled by the seven majors. The percentage of the seven majors' crude oil deposits in the free world was about 70% in 1968, but decreased sharply down to about 6% in 1978 to 1979, when the world experienced the second oil crisis. The decrease of Texaco, COCAL, and Mobil was remarkable. That was the background of these three companies' giant acquisitions in 1984. For the oil companies suffering from decrease of oil deposits, the inexpensive and dependable way to secure deposits was to take over developed reserves of other companies. Although there are the pros and cons in the evaluation of the merger and acquisition, these trends continues, including the oil exporting countries, and are very likely to move to the international reconstraction of the oil industry. (10 tabs)

Jojoba oil: A state of the art review and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sánchez, Marcos; Avhad, Mangesh R.; Marchetti, Jorge M.; Martínez, Mercedes; Aracil, José

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Jojoba oil is a unique oil formed by long esters instead of triglycerides. • Jojoba cake is gaining interest because of the extraction of valuable chemicals. • Jojoba oil heterogeneous-catalyzed methanolysis makes the process more profitable. - Abstract: Jojoba oil, which is derived from the extraction of Jojoba seed, has a peculiar molecular structure in comparison with the rest of conventional oils. Jojoba oil is formed by long monounsaturated esters whereas the rest of the oils are usually composed by triglycerides. This unconventional structure confers to Jojoba oil unique properties and characteristics that are very valuable for fine chemical industry and for the production of pharmaceuticals. In addition, Jojoba oil can be an excellent source of fatty acid alkyl esters or biodiesel after the transesterification process and the purification steps. This review presents general information about the production of Jojoba oil and its derivatives, its composition, oil extraction process and the applications of this oil when it is used directly or after chemical transformation as well as the possible purposes of Jojoba meal after extraction. In addition, this paper contemplates the advantages and disadvantages of the use of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts for the Jojoba oil transesterification as well as different methods to obtain long monounsaturated alcohols, which have pharmaceutical applications, after being separated from biodiesel. The properties of the products derived from the transesterification of Jojoba oil are broadly discussed. Moreover, this review suggests future research opportunities such as a possible biorefinery using Jojoba oil as main raw material, supercritical methods and simultaneous extraction/reaction process which are fully discussed.

Market potential for Canadian crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heath, M.; Fisher, L.; Golosinski, D.; Luthin, A.; Gill, L.; Raggett, C.

1997-01-01

Future key markets for Canadian crude were evaluated, and probable flow volumes and prices were identified. Key concerns of market participants such as pricing, alternative crude sources, pipeline tariffs and crude quality, were examined. An overview of the competition faced by Canadian crude supply in global markets was presented. World crude oil supply and demand was discussed. US and Canadian crude oil supply (2000 to 2010), refinery demand for light and heavy crudes, existing future crude oil and refined product pipeline infrastructure, and pricing implications of changing crude oil flows were analyzed. The general conclusion was that the US market will continue to provide growing markets for Canadian crude oil, and that the Canadian supply to fulfill increased export requirements will be available due to the combined effects of increasing heavy crude supply, growing production from the east coast offshore, and recent and ongoing pipeline expansions and additions. 20 refs., 64 tabs., 42 figs

Can the future, world-wide energy supply be achieved without nuclear energy?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugeler, K.

1995-01-01

In the future the world-wide energy demand is going to increase considerably. The use of nuclear energy will continuously grow if the demand of climate researchers for a reduction of the world-wide CO 2 emission is fulfilled and if the possible contribution of regenerative energy sources is assessed realistically. In the future a world-wide use of nuclear energy will be realised according to even higher safety standards. The modification of the German Atom Law, which determines the limitation of damage caused to the reactor plant for future reactors fulfils this demand. The efforts in the field of nuclear technical development will concentrate on the proof of the required safety properties. (orig.) [de

Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2013-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

Oil and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, F

1974-10-01

The shift in world income due to the increase in oil prices has resulted in a world economy that has been thrown off balance. Nine papers are presented that explore the background and the main implications of this ''watershed'' in international relations, particularly the extent to which it will affect the development prospects of poor countries and the climate of trade between poor and rich nations in the next few years. Two papers, ''Diary of Events in the Oil Market 1971--1974'' and ''Statistical Background,'' provide information on the financial changes implied by the price increase; some of the figures should be treated as preliminary estimates only. ''Large International Firms in the Oil Industry'' examines the part played by the major oil companies in developments in the oil market leading up to the events of 1973. Two papers, ''Can OPEC Maintain Current Prices'' and ''OPEC As a Model for Other Mineral Exporters,'' present optimistic conclusions, from the viewpoint of developing countries, on their future capability for controlling their own destinies in trade. ''A Note on Some Issues Raised for Science and Technology Policy by the Increase in Oil Prices'' looks at options open to producers and consumers of raw materials. ''Assessing the Economic Impact on Developing Countries and Some Policy Suggestions,'' ''A Note on the Implications of the Oil Price Increases for British Aid Policy,'' and ''Confrontation Versus Co-operation'' are three papers concerned with difficulties of developing countries and particularly India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. (MCW)

USSR: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hovring, M.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that due to its lack of technology, the Soviet Union will have to double the number of wells it drills in the next five years in order to maintain today's oil output. It has been estimated that more than 11,000 new wells will have to be drilled in 1992 because of the declines in reserves and productivity per well. The only problem with this is that the USSR does not have the required funds at present. The Soviet Government has agreed to a 25-billion-rouble ($46 billion) cash injection for the oil industry to halt declining production. The USSR will need to find major new deposits to develop. There is oil in the exceptionally difficult geological conditions in Soviet central Asia and northern Siberia. However, the oil is located in hundreds of small fields. The only solution is to let international oil companies take part in development of production of these fields in order to raise the standard of technology employed

Measuring energy security. Can the United States achieve oil independence?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, David L.

2010-01-01

Stochastic simulation of the direct economic costs of oil dependence in an uncertain future is proposed as a useful metric of oil dependence. The market failure from which these costs arise is imperfect competition in the world oil market, chiefly as a consequence of the use of market power by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel. Oil dependence costs can be substantial. It is estimated that oil dependence costs to the US economy in 2008 will exceed $500 billion. Other costs, such as military expenditures or foreign policy constraints are deemed to be largely derivative of the actual or potential economic costs of oil dependence. The use of quantifiable economic costs as a security metric leads to a measurable definition of oil independence, or oil security, which can be used to test the ability of specific policies to achieve oil independence in an uncertain future. (author)

A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan Jing.

1990-01-01

First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

1992-01-01

Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

World energy projection system: Model documentation

Science.gov (United States)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

World oil flow slips in 1991 amid Mideast, U.S.S.R. woes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1992-01-01

World crude oil production slipped 0.9% in 1991 to average 59,964 million b/d. This paper reports that production declines related to war damage in Kuwait, United Nations sanctions on exports from Iraq, and oil sector woes in the crumbling U.S.S.R. were almost offset by higher production from other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC crude production rose 0.6% in 1991 to average 23.425 million b/d, and non-OPEC output fell 1.9% to average 36.539 million b/d in 1991. Excluding the U.S.S.R., non-OPEC production moved up 1.5% to average 26.239 million b/d. World demand inched up about 200,000 b/d, estimates International Energy Agency, and IEA data show about 300,000 b/d was added to stocks in 1991. World crude prices started 1991 at their highest level, then fell off to average $17.82/bbl, down 16.5% from 1990 levels. Meantime, a slight increase in demand is predicted for 1992, and price stability again hinges on OPEC's ability to limit production

Reference data on world oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

Towards a new world: The contributions of nuclear energy to a sustainable future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R. B.; Miller, A. I.; Fehrenbach, P. J.; Kuran, S.; Tregunno, D.; Suppiah, S.

2007-01-01

Over the last few years, the world has seen growing concern about the sustainability of the Planet when supplying increasing energy use. The major issues are: increased energy prices in the world markets; growing energy demand in emerging economies; security and stability of oil and gas supply; potentially adverse climate change due to carbon-based emissions; and the need to deploy economic, sustainable and reliable alternates. Large undefined 'wedges' of alternate energy technologies are needed. In light of these major difficulties, there is renewed interest and need for a greater role for nuclear energy as a safe, sustainable and economic energy contributor. The shift has been, from being viewed by some as politically discounted, to being accepted as absolutely globally essential. We have carefully considered, and systematically, extensively and technically analyzed the contributions that nuclear energy can and should make to a globally sustainable energy future. These include restraining emissions, providing safe and secure power, operating synergistically with other sources, and being both socially and fiscally attractive. Therefore, we quantify in this paper the major contributions: a) The reduction in climate change potential and the global impact of future nuclear energy deployment through emissions reduction, using established analysis tools which varying the plausible future penetration and scale of nuclear energy. b) The minimization of economic costs and the maximization of global benefits, including investment requirements, carbon price implications, competitive market penetration, and effect of variable daily pricing. c) The introduction of fuel switching, including base-load nuclear energy synergistically enabling both hydrogen production and the introduction of significant wind power. d) The management and reduction of waste streams, utilizing intelligent designs and fuel cycles that optimize fuel resource use and minimize emissions, waste disposal

Shifting production trends point to more oil from OPEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, I.A.H.

1994-01-01

Oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC regions has undergone four major phases of change in relation to oil price since 1960. Patterns visible in those phases offer an indication of world-wide production trends in the future. These four phases are described. Overall, demand for oil during 1960--93 has increased from around 20 million b/d in 1960 to as high as 65 million b/d in 1993. The consensus among energy analysts and forecasters is that this demand growth will continue. This will encourage OPEC and non OPEC producers to invest in the oil industry to meet future demand growth. However, since the resource base is larger in OPEC than in non-OPEC areas, and since the cost of developing these resources is lower in OPEC than outside OPEC, the future call on OPEC oil to meet growth in demand will undoubtedly be substantiated as production from the non-OPEC region diminishes or at best stagnates. The paper discusses OPEC production trends, non-OPEC production, natural gas liquids, future production scenarios, and future constraints on production

Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

2015-01-01

Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

Oil and Labour: The Pivotal Position of Persian Oil in The First World War and the Question of Transnational Labour Dependency

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atabaki, T.; De Vito, Christian G.; Gerritsen, Anne

2017-01-01

Atabaki examines the conceptualization, articulation, and implementation of the Oil Company’s shifting labour policy against the background of greater global geopolitical shifts during the First World War. The chapter especially addresses the spatiality of labour recruitment across the Persian

After the Gulf crisis: The third oil shock is yet to come

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, P.

1991-01-01

The Gulf crisis had a major impact on world oil markets: for several months the flow of oil and the capacity to produce oil in the future in several key oil-producing countries were directly or indirectly threatened. A genuine oil shock was avoided because those who are involved in oil markets and in related international organizations maintained their composure. However, an examination of market fundamentals suggests that a return to strong dependence on supplies from the Gulf is probable during this decade if the price of oil does not rise sufficiently to bring about a growth trend in oil production by non-OPEC countries consistent with growth in world oil consumption. An analysis is presented of the oil price trends prior to, during and subsequent to the Gulf crisis, and two alternative scenarios are detailed for the year 2000: sustainable vs a third oil shock. 30 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

How a future energy world could look?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewert M.

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

How a future energy world could look?

Science.gov (United States)

Ewert, M.

2012-10-01

The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

Oil crisis and the emerging world order

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baumgartner, T. (Univ. of Quebec, Montreal); Burns, T.R.; Deville, P.

1977-08-01

The paper outlines a conceptual framework for understanding and analyzing the structuring of an institutional order. Particular attention is given to developments that make institution restructuring likely--for instance power shifts which favor actors with a different vision or model of an appropriate institutional order. The framework is applied in a brief historical study of the development of post-World War II international economic institutions and current developments associated with the ''oil crisis.'' This conceptual framework and historical investigation provides a basis on which to formulate propositions, indicating potential sources of conflict and cooperating and certain ambiguities and dynamics of current institution restructuring in the international system. The paper concludes by outlining several action guidelines for structuring new global cultural forces and institutional forms related to bringing about a New International Economic Order. 43 references.

The rapid growth of OPEC′s domestic oil consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gately, Dermot; Al-Yousef, Nourah; Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H.

2013-01-01

OPEC′s domestic oil consumption has increased seven-fold in 40 years, to 8.5 million barrels per day (mbd). They consume almost as much oil as China. This constitutes one-fourth of their production. Such rapid growth in consumption (5.1% annually, faster than their income growth of 3.1%) will challenge OPEC′s ability to increase their oil exports, which are relied upon in long-term world oil projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA) and British Petroleum (BP). However, these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in OPEC oil consumption – to less than 2% in the future – allowing them to project increases in OPEC oil exports with only modest increases in production. We analyze 1971–2010 data econometrically, with panel co-integration methods. We estimate that the income elasticity of consumption is about 1 for energy and oil. This means that OPEC′s energy and oil consumption will grow as rapidly as their income. Hence, continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by IEA, DOE/EIA and BP – adding an extra 6 mbd of OPEC consumption in 2030. This will have major implications for OPEC production and export levels, and for world oil prices. -- Highlights: •We analyze rapid growth of OPEC oil consumption (sevenfold since 1971: 5.1% annually). •Panel co-integration econometric estimate of income elasticity about 1.0. •Consensus projections (IEA, DOE/EIA) have consistently under projected OPEC consumption. •Future oil market implications if OPEC consumption grows as fast as income (as in past)

Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alkhathlan, Khalid; Gately, Dermot; Javid, Muhammad

2014-01-01

We analyze oil export behavior by Saudi Arabia and the Rest of OPEC since 1973. In the literature there has been a wide range of estimates of their correlation: from positive, to zero, to negative. We find that the correlation has varied over time, from moderately high (0.7) in normal periods, to negative during each of five interruptions; the average correlation has been 0.19. Saudi Arabia's oil market behavior depends upon circumstances, but its primary goal is the stability of OPEC and the world oil market. It will coordinate export reductions with the Rest of OPEC when faced with declining demand, but it will increase exports when faced with interruptions elsewhere in OPEC. Allowing for such differences provides evidence of intelligent, context-dependent consistency. But ignoring context – by wrongly assuming the same Saudi response in Normal periods and Interruptions – can lead to a conclusion of Saudi “inconsistency” because the difference in the responses has been obscured

The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

Mining and oil. Oil shale's contribution to future oil supply; Bergbau und Oel. Der Beitrag des Oelschiefers zur Oelversorgung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linden, Eike von der [Linden Advisory, Dreieich (Germany)

2012-05-15

Crude oil contributes in Germany and globally approximately one third to the consumption of primary energies and actually is and in the foreseeable future will be the most important energy source. Recently shale oil as an unconventional oil has gained attention in public discussions. Depending on temperatures oil shale contains either already matured fluid shale oil or immature waxy kerogen. For determination of kerogen containing oil shale and shale oil common definitions for fluid hydrocarbons will be presented. Fluid hydrocarbons (molecular chains > C{sub 5}H{sub 12}) originate from animal substance which had been settled millions of years in sediments on sea- or lakebeds under anaerobic conditions. High pressure and high temperatures effect conversion to hydrocarbons. With sufficient permeability the liquid hydrocarbons migrate from the sediment as the source rock and get assembled in porous rocks under the cover of an impermeable rock strata, in so called entrapment structures. In case there is no impermeable rock strate the hydrocarbons will diffuse into the atmosphere. The hydrocarbons in entrapment structures are called conventional oil and are extracted by drilling wells. The extractable oil as part of the oil in place depends on the viscosity of the oil, the permeability of the host rock and applied exploitation methods which can affect pressure, viscosity and permeability. The exploitation achieves 30 to 50% of the oil in place. When the source rock consisting of strata hundreds of meters thick is not sufficiently permeable the matured hydrocarbons remain at its place of origination. These hydrocarbons are called shale oil and belong to the unconventional oil resources. For exploitation of shale oil by wells the source rock must be treated by intensive energy input, amongst others, by fracking which creates artificial permeability and by pressure which affects migration of the hydrocarbons to the well. The exploitation methods for shale oil do not

Planning Oil Prices In The World Market And Preventive Policies In Energy Sector Of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raees Dana, Fariborz

1999-01-01

The planning of oil prices in the world can not be analyzed by means of the market-competition theory or the game theory. The current prices seem to be influenced greatly by large energy consuming industries of developed countries, oil producing corporations and cartels, and oil productions outside of OPEC. There is a lack of necessary long term policies and planning so that drastic changes in market prices can be avoided. The goal of this paper is to suggest new policies by means of discussing in following issues: 1.Initiating some form of a financial support for OPEC with the necessary follow up. 2. Utilization of oil income in sectors organized to have the least susceptibility against income loss and the lowest impact on other sectors. 3. Reducing of oil production level in the local and global framework and starting in industrialization process. 4. Replacement of oil with natural gas at a faster rate. 5. improving the oil industry infrastructure for lowering production costs and increasing variety in products in light of country economic policies and occupational strategies. 6. Imposing self-reliance on development of oil-production technology

The world energy demand in 2005: confirmed increase in energy consumptions, despite soaring crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chateau, Bertrand

2006-01-01

The world energy demand growth remains strong: 2004 experienced the highest growth since 19987, and brent prices had moderate impact in 2005: Very strong rise of energy consumptions despite high oil prices, Economic situation still favorable, Evolutions principally due to China. 2005 world energy consumption: 11,4 Gtoe: Asia accounts for 35% of the world energy consumption, China's weight (15%) continues to increase by one point every year (+5 points since 2000). Asia increases its pressure on the world energy growth in 2005: China accounts for almost half of the world energy consumption increase in 2005, the whole Asia accounts for 70%; The European consumption growth represents less than 5% of China's Growth; The American energy consumption decreases for the first time. 2005 world consumption by energy: With an increasing market share by 0,7 points, coal penetration increases; The oil market has lost 0,4 point, with an accelerating relative decrease; The relative weight of gas remains stable, with 21%. Energy efficiency and energy intensity of GDP: Slow-down of the world energy intensity decrease since 2001, whereas the economic growth is faster, due to changes in trends in China (increase in the recent years). Increase less sharp in China in 2005 (price effect). Energy intensity trends of GDP: Fast decrease in CIS since the recovery of the economic growth; Slow-down of the decrease in EU since 2000 and recovery in 2005 whereas the decrease has accelerated in the USA. Since 2000, the energy consumption increases less rapidly than the GDP almost everywhere, except for the Middle East. Projections until 2020: China and India could represent one third of the world energy growth, the whole of Asia more than 50%; Growth prospects for energy demand are low in the EU and CIS; America would account for 20% of the world energy growth (8% USA); In the rest of the world, high growth in Africa and in the Middle East. Gas could cover more than 40% of the world energy

Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Cottrell, Paul Edward

There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

世界油气资源形势分析%The Analysis of World Oil and Gas Resources Situation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

张所续

2013-01-01

World primary energy consumption grew by 1.8% in 2012,well below that of the past decade ,which was 2 .6%.And the proportion of oil ,natural gas was 33 .1%,23 .9%,respectively . There was a continuous decline in oil shares .World oil reserves increased slightly by 0.9%,while natural gas reserves declined by0 .3 %.The strong growth of unconventional oil and gas produc-tion,including shale gas and tight oil ,will have a significant impact on the global energy landscape . According to 2013 World Energy Reserves Statistical Yearbook released by BP , production and consumption of the world 's oil and natural gas,etc.were analyzed,and the situation was discussed .%2012年世界一次能源消费量增长1．8％，远低于过去十年2．6％的平均增速；其中石油、天然气所占比重分别为33．1％、239．％，石油份额连续下滑。世界石油储量微增0．9％，天然气储量减少0．3％，随着页岩气、致密油等非常规油气产量的强劲增长将对全球能源格局产生重大影响。根据BP发布的2013年世界能源统计年鉴，对世界石油和天然气的储量、产量、消费量等情况进行分析，并展开形势研判。

Future reactors and their fuel cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rastoin, J.

1990-01-01

Known world reserves of oil and natural gas may only last another 50 years and therefore nuclear energy will become more important in the future. Industrialised countries should also be encouraged to conserve their oil reserves to make better use of them and share them with less developed countries. France already produces 30% or more of its primary energy from uranium in the form of nuclear generated electricity. France has therefore accumulated considerable expertise in all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle. Each stage of the fuel cycle, extraction, enrichment, fuel fabrication, fissile material utilisation, reprocessing and waste storage is discussed. The utilisation of fissile material is the most important stage and this is considered in more detail under headings: increase in burn-up, spectral shift, plutonium utilisation including recycling in pressurized water reactors and fast reactors and utilisation of reprocessed uranium. It is concluded that nuclear power for electricity production will be widely used throughout the world in the future. (UK)

Nigeria: the political economy of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, S.A.

1994-01-01

This book is the second in a series of books on the major petroleum exporting nations, most of them part of the developing world. These countries occupy a central position in the global economy given that oil is the energy source most used in the world and the most important primary commodity in international trade. At the same time they find themselves inescapably dependent on a single source of income. Their own economic prospects are closely bound to the future of their oil. It aims to provide a broad description of the oil and gas sectors, highlighting those features which give the country a physiognomy of its own. The analysis is set in the context of history, economic policy and international relations. It also seeks to identify the specific challenges that the exporting country studies will face in developing its wealth to the best advantage of the economy. (author)

Venezuela: the political economy of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boue, J.C.

1993-01-01

This book inaugurates a new series of books on the major petroleum exporting nations, most of them part of the developing world. These countries occupy a central position in the global economy given that oil is the energy source most used in the world and the most important primary commodity in international trade. At the same time they find themselves inescapably dependent on a single source of income. Their own economic prospects are closely bound to the future of their oil. It aims to provide a broad description of the oil and gas sectors, highlighting those features which give the country a physiognomy of its own. The analysis is set in the context of history, economic policy and international relations. It also seeks to identify the specific challenges that the exporting country studies will face in developing its wealth to the best advantage of the economy. (author)

Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.

1989-01-01

It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

Our energy future is not set in stone. How can the demand for oil and gas in 2035 be met?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charlez, Philippe A.

2014-01-01

If technology is an undeniable catalyst for progress, then energy is its inevitable basic food. It is no coincidence that since the industrial revolution, economic growth has been fuelled first by coal, then by oil and gas. Although energy intensity reserves are still sizeable in emerging economies and the technological catalyst can partially dematerialise growth, it is unrealistic to separate growth from its basic food. And, even if the 'fossil energies share' (oil/gas/coal) will lose a few percent to nuclear and renewable energies over the next decades, all the indicators point to a world mix in which the fossil energy share will still top 75% by 2035. Driven by growth in emerging countries, the demand for oil and gas will continue to grow steadily. Even if there are enough oil and gas reserves to see us through the next three decades, will the industry be able to exploit and produce new resources that are increasingly complex to develop at a sufficient rate and which are often located in politically unstable countries? Not to mention the added challenge of the growing numbers of stakeholders who are increasingly insistent on industrial safety, environment and societal issues? In particular, will non-conventional resources, whose production growth could defer the oil and gas peaks by several decades, be able to withstand political and environmental lobbies? The evolution of oil and gas landscape over the past few years reveals a disturbing increase in the time required to develop large new fields and an accelerated decline of the production base due to the ageing of most of the mature-field facilities. This book aims to analyze all the critical factors (technical, political, economic, social and human) that could potentially accelerate or delay the maintenance and redevelopment of mature producing fields as well as the discovery and development of new conventional and unconventional resources. Insofar as in 2035, oil and gas still account for more than half of

OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

1993-01-01

Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

Petrobras prepares for world stage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knott, T.

1997-01-01

The plans of the Brazilian state oil company Petrobras for future offshore developments in partnership with foreign oil companies are outlined. Recent changes to Brazil's constitution mean that foreign participation is now permitted in the growing oil industry. Proven and recoverable reserves of 8.1 billion barrels of oil have been opened up for foreign involvement. The regulatory change also enables Petrobras to take part in projects overseas and the company expects to bid in the forthcoming licensing round for deepwater developments offshore Angola. Of the 29 sedimentary basins in Brazil, only eight so far are in production. Around 70% of proven reserves and almost all new discoveries are expected to be in deep or ultra deep waters. Petrobras have already broken the world record for deep water wells with the Marlim South well which came onstream in August 1997 in 1709m of water. (UK)

Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India

OpenAIRE

Bharat Ramaswami; Jatinder Bir Singh

2006-01-01

Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage oppo...

Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

2008-01-01

We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

The future for heavy crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horsnell, P.

1995-01-01

The expectation, still held in 1993, that the light oil-heavy crude oil differential would go on increasing in favour of light oil has not been fulfilled. Current perceptions are that heavy oil will continue to be relatively strong and there is no inevitable upward trend in light-heavy crude differentials. Non-OPEC production has grown significantly lighter overall in recent years and is likely to continue so for several more years. This is due to expanded light oil production in the North Sea, Latin America and the Far East, and contractions in heavy oil production in Russia and the USA. OPEC production has also become lighter with, in particular, an expansion in light oil and contraction in heavy grades from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the nature of the demand from refineries has changed with the introduction of new units designed to process the residium from heavy oil distillation. Thus the supply of light oil has expanded while demand for it has contracted with the reverse being true for heavy oil. (2 figures, 1 table) (UK)

Oil outlook to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shihab-Eldin, A.; Hamel, M.; Brennand, G.

2003-01-01

OPEC's World Energy Model, OWEM, is used to develop the outlook for oil demand and supply to 2020. The reference case assumes world economic growth averaging 3.3 per cent per annum, while OPEC's Reference Basket of seven crudes remains mainly in the target range of US $22-28 a barrel, in nominal terms. With no additional assumed policy measures, for example, to reduce CO 2 emissions, the reference case sees world oil demand rising from 76 million barrels a day in 2000 to 89 mb/d in 2010 and 107 mb/d in 2020. More than three-quarters of this increase comes from developing countries. The most important sector for a demand increase is transportation, accounting for 60 per cent of the rise globally. On the supply side, the oil resource base is not considered a constraint to satisfying this increase in demand. Non-OPEC production is expected to continue to grow during the current decade, and to stabilise at a level of 53-55 mb/d beyond 2010. OPEC production is projected to reach 36 mb/d by 2010 and 52 mb/d in 2020. It is important, however, to recognise the uncertainties pervading such an assessment. For example, it is not clear how future economic growth, energy policies and technology will develop over this time horizon, and this inevitably clouds any assessment of future oil demand and supply. In an attempt to quantify one aspect of such uncertainty, other feasible economic growth rates have been assumed, the results of which suggest that OPEC output by 2010 could be 4-5 mb/d higher or lower than in the reference case, while the range is clearly even greater in the years to 2020. Moreover, policy reactions to such developments could compound the uncertainty. On the other hand, such alternative economic growth could place pressure upon oil prices to move outside OPEC's price band of $22-28/b. These uncertainties illustrate the scope of the challenges confronting the oil industry, especially given the long lead-time nature of oil industry investment, in making

"Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

OpenAIRE

Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

2009-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

The peak of oil production-Timings and market recognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almeida, Pedro de; Silva, Pedro D.

2009-01-01

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

The oil and gas industry and the Canadian economy: a backgrounder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-06-01

The technological and economic significance of the Canadian petroleum industry to the national economy and to Canada's standing in the world are reviewed. The six key ways in which the oil and gas industry affects Canada, namely employment, balance of trade, products, government revenues, international technology trade and community support are stressed within the context of describing present and future oil and gas resources, Canada's petroleum and natural gas trade balance, and capital spending and product sales. Attention is also drawn to the role of the Canadian petroleum and natural gas industry as a producer and exporter of world class technology, especially in the areas of high tech exploration methods, cold-climate and offshore operations, enhanced recovery techniques, heavy oil production and and processing, mining and upgrading of oil sands bitumen, oil well firefighting, and environmental protection technology. maps, figs

Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niloo Hojjati

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, we extract firm-level information for publicly traded Canadian companies in order to establish the location of their activities around the globe.1 The data collected in the “Where in the World” (hereafter WIW project are presented through a publicly accessible interactive world map, which allows users to explore a specific country or region over time. This map can be accessed online at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teaching-training/ extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. For further information regarding the WIW project, including a comprehensive overview of the methodology, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Where-in-theWorld-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. In addition, summary reports of the annual data collection for the 2011 and 2012 years of analysis are also available at http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2011-Where-in-theWorld-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf and http://www.policyschool.ca/wpcontent/uploads/2017/06/2012-Where-in-the-World-Hojjati-final.pdf. This report, as in the earlier reports in this series, provides an account of emerging trends and highlights variations in the level of global activities of Canadian oil and gas companies (hereafter O&G for the 2013 year of study.2 In 2013, a total of 226 Canadian O&G companies engaged in global exploration and service activities in 99 countries worldwide. The Middle East and Europe experienced the greatest increase in the concentration of Canadian exploration and production (E&P companies. Meanwhile, the international presence of Canadian O&G service companies continued to grow in several countries, including Colombia, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. This report

Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Paul

1997-01-01

Hong Kong's first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as 'a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong' fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory's oil industry either. (author)

Saving oil in a hurry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none

2005-07-01

During 2004, oil prices reached levels unprecedented in recent years. Though world oil markets remain adequately supplied, high oil prices do reflect increasingly uncertain conditions. Many IEA member countries and non-member countries alike are looking for ways to improve their capability to handle market volatility and possible supply disruptions in the future. This book aims to provide assistance. It provides a new, quantitative assessment of the potential oil savings and costs of rapid oil demand restraint measures for transport. Some measures may make sense under any circumstances; others are primarily useful in emergency situations. All can be implemented on short notice ? if governments are prepared. The book examines potential approaches for rapid uptake of telecommuting, ?ecodriving?, and car-pooling, among other measures. It also provides methodologies and data that policymakers can use to decide which measures would be best adapted to their national circumstances. This ?tool box? may help countries to complement other measures for coping with supply disruptions, such as use of strategic oil stocks.

Efficient way of importing crude oil from oil producing countries - A review on diversification policy of crude oil import

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dal Sok [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-03-01

Since the second oil crisis, the government has operated the import diversification support program to reduce the risk of crude oil import from Middle-East region and to raise the ability of dealing with the risk. This study tried to seek policy trends in future through reviewing the market environment related to the crude oil import diversification policy and the goal, instrument and effect of the policy. The supply and demand of crude oil and the price are influenced by market system in the world oil market and there are various types of crude oil trading available to both sellers and buyers. There is a probability that the suspension of supply in a certain area could be led to the price issue rather than the physical use of crude oil. In addition, the advantage of price with long-term contract of crude oil was abolished since the price of crude oil imported by term contract has been linked to spot prices. As a result, it is shown that the potential benefit from crude oil import diversification policy is reduced although political and social insecurity still exists in Middle-East region. Therefore, it is desirable to maintain the existing support program until the amount of stored oil reaches the optimum level and to help private enterprises determine the import considering economical efficiency and risk. (author). 36 refs., 5 figs., 23 tabs.

Materials towards carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles--now and in the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirose, Katsuhiko

2010-07-28

In the past, material innovation has changed society through new material-induced technologies, adding a new value to society. In the present world, engineers and scientists are expected to invent new materials to solve the global problem of climate change. For the transport sector, the challenge for material engineers is to change the oil-based world into a sustainable world. After witnessing the recent high oil price and its adverse impact on the global economy, it is time to accelerate our efforts towards this change. Industries are tackling global energy issues such as oil and CO2, as well as local environmental problems, such as NO(x) and particulate matter. Hydrogen is the most promising candidate to provide carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility. As such, engineers are working very hard to bring this technology into the real society. This paper describes recent progress of vehicle technologies, as well as hydrogen-storage technologies to extend the cruise range and ensure the easiness of refuelling and requesting material scientists to collaborate with industry to fight against global warming.

Cost and benefits for using NYMEX [New York Mercantile Exchange] crude oil futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deaves, R.; Krinsky, I.

1991-01-01

The crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1990-91 has illustrated how important it is for end users of petroleum products to be able to reduce the risk of unexpected price changes. Transferring the risk of price changes, or hedging, is most desirable when the costs of doing so are low relative to the benefits. The nature of these benefits and costs are discussed, and a related analysis of data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures market is reported. It is shown that likely risk reduction is directly related to the degree to which the crude oil futures market can be characterized as efficient. Using data from the highly volatile period of 1983-90, evidence is presented to support the proposition that the crude oil market is efficient. There is no evidence for the existence of risk premiums, which constitute an additional cost to hedging. This is good news for hedgers, as it implies that risk transfer is free in the sense that hedgers need pay no premium to speculators. Although the market appears to be efficient when past returns and the basis are used as explanatory variables, there is some evidence that futures returns may be predicted using macroeconomic variables. 8 refs., 4 tabs

Guatemala: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that government officials have been working on changes to the hydrocarbon law to make it easier for operators to explore. In a reform effort, Minister of Energy and Mines Carlos Hutarte brought a new staff dedicated to spurring oil development into office with him. This includes the Directorate of Hydrocarbons, which held a three-day seminar in Dallas, Texas, to acquaint U.S. firms with new policies. Only one company, Basic Resources International, has been operating in Guatemala over the last year. The firm drilled three onshore wells in 1990 for 16,499 ft, including one oil producer. Two further onshore wells are slated this year. Oil production from 14 active wells out of 16 capable averaged 3,943 bpd, up 8.4% from 1989. Reserves are 191 MMbbl

Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laherrere, Jean

2003-07-01

Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the

Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laherrere, Jean

2003-07-01

Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the pattern, giving one or more new

Net energy yield from production of conventional oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Michael; Krumdieck, Susan; Bodger, Pat

2011-01-01

Historic profitability of bringing oil to market was profound, but most easy oil has been developed. Higher cost resources, such as tar sands and deep off-shore, are considered the best prospects for the future. Economic modelling is currently used to explore future price scenarios commensurate with delivering fuel to market. Energy policy requires modelling scenarios capturing the complexity of resource and extraction aspects as well as the economic profitability of different resources. Energy-return-on-investment (EROI) expresses the profitability of bringing energy products to the market. Net energy yield (NEY) is related to the EROI. NEY is the amount of energy less expenditures necessary to deliver a fuel to the market. This paper proposes a pattern for EROI of oil production, based on historic oil development trends. Methodology and data for EROI is not agreed upon. The proposed EROI function is explored in relation to the available data and used to attenuate the International Energy Agency (IEA) world oil production scenarios to understand the implications of future declining EROI on net energy yield. The results suggest that strategies for management and mitigation of deleterious effects of a peak in oil production are more urgent than might be suggested by analyses focussing only on gross production. - Highlights: → Brief introduction to methodological issues concerning net energy analysis. → Description of EROI function over the whole production cycle of an energy resource. → Calibration of this function to EROI data from historic oil production. → Application to determine the net energy yield from current global oil production. → Calculation of net energy yield from IEA projections of future oil production.

Organizing the collection and automated processing of information about oil pollution of the world's oceans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mikhaylov, V.A.; Surago, A.V.

1983-01-01

A system is examined for collecting, testing, storing and processing of data about pollution of the world's ocean by oil within the MOK-VMO test project on a computer (EVM). Forms for recording the results of observations and analysis in the form of an observation log for each form of oil pollution are cited. A description is given of the operation of the system.

Prospects for world oil supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esser, R.W.

1991-01-01

Surprises lie ahead for world oil supplies, which are expected to increase rapidly throughout the 1990s before leveling off by the end of the century. The extent of this increase could be the major surprise of the decade. Large increases in the capacity in Gulf countries accompanied by smaller increases in the non-Middle East OPEC countries will be augmented by a gradual increase in non-OPEC capacity into the late 1990s. By 2000, declining capacity in the latter two areas will offset continued capacity increases in the Gulf countries. Overall capacity in the non-OPEC countries (excluding China, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union), is expected to increase by 1.1 million BOPD from the low point in the early 1990s to a mid 1990s peak. The increase will be led by a large increase in capacity from the United Kingdom and smaller contributions from the non-Middle East OPEC countries and Mexico. In the forecast, emphasis has been placed on a detailed evaluation of recent significant discoveries made in non-OPEC countries and non-Middle East OPEC countries since 1983, which when taken together, are expected to add 8 million BOPD new capacity as soon as 1995. These discoveries have taken place in both existing and evolving exploration hotspots that are expected to receive increasing industry emphasis in the 1990s

Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDonald, Paul [Pearl Oil Ltd. (Hong Kong)

1997-09-01

Hong Kong`s first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as `a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong` fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory`s oil industry either. (author)

World oil market fundamentals - Part One: The near term outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwarkin, J.; Morton, K.; Datta, R.

1998-03-01

Potential implications of a number of uncertainties currently affecting the world oil market are assessed. The influence of the interplay of geopolitical events on demand and supply, inventories, prices and price trends are reviewed. Reference prices which industry and governments can use for investment and policy evaluations are provided. In this volume, the emphasis is on near term developments, with a review of the uncertainties surrounding these projections. Three different scenarios are postulated for the near term, each one taking into account different levels of Iraqi exports during the period which would effect available inventories, and hence price. Depending on which of the three scenarios actually comes to pass, unless refiners are prepared to build up inventories well beyond seasonal norms, or producers shut in, the prevailing view is that oil prices will be under severe pressure during most of 1998 and 1999. Over the longer term, however, the analysis suggests that an average real value of US$18.00 - $18.50 per barrel remains a reasonable expectation as a sustainable price. 34 refs., tabs., figs

Malaysia: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khin, J.A.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that the Malaysian government announced tax incentives for fiscal year 1991/92 by cutting export duties on crude oil to encourage companies to develop more oil fields. The export duty exemption on cost recovery oil was increased from the current 20% to 50% on April 1, 1991. Nearly 115,200 sq mi of shallow-water acreage off Malaysia has been awarded to PS contractors, leaving only about five blocks remaining. Therefore, Petronas plans to award deeper water blocks (water depths of 655 ft or more) in the second half of this year, once terms are finalized. It is understood that these areas will be offshore of Sarawak and Sabah, covering in excess of 38,000 sq mi. Petronas the that there would be some improvement in the PSC terms for the deep-water areas

Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

2005-01-01

This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

Impact of innovations on future energy supply - chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR).

Science.gov (United States)

Bittner, Christian

2013-01-01

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase of global energy demand by one-third during next 20 years together with a change in the global energy mix. A key-influencing factor is a strong expected increase in oil and gas production in the United States driven by 'new' technologies such as hydraulic fracturing. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR) is another strong growing technology with the potential of a step change innovation, which will help to secure future oil supply by turning resources into reserves. While conventional production methods give access to on average only one-third of original oil in place, the use of surfactants and polymers allows for recovery of up to another third of this oil. In the case of polymer flooding with poly acrylamide, the number of full field implementations has increased in recent years. In the meantime new polymers have been developed to cover previously unmet needs - such polymers can be applied in fields of high salinity and high temperature. Use of surfactants is in an earlier stage, but pilot tests show promising results.

Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

The world energy situation and the response of the European Community

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, L.

1980-01-01

In reviewing the World energy situation the lecturer points out that there is trouble over oil supplies earlier than was expected and that large sections of the public and parliaments do not yet appreciate the implications of this on the rest of the energy policy, especially with reference to the nuclear option. Subjects considered include; oil market situation, public education, transfer of wealth, limitation of oil imports, Community energy policy, future Community policy, economics, nuclear policies and the effect of the Harrisburg accident. The ensuing discussion is reported. (UK)

Energy for a righteous world with a safe future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, D.J.

1977-01-01

We are in charge of our energy future and thus of the future itself. Energy decisions in the past were made on a too narrow and short-term basis, and we can daily clearly observe their inadequacy. The policy's quality does not correspond to the significance of the problem. A greater approximation leads to a consequent policy of the development of energy alternatives, of which some considerably deviate from those which would result at a closer look. This lecture deals with two aspects of the problem, both concern the future of nuclear energy. The first aspect treats extensively the energy possibilities available to the world in the future; the second deals more with the problem of the acceptibility of nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear fuels, the relationship to atomic armament and the thus involved problems. (orig.) [de

World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azadeh M. Rouhani

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC in maintaining “stability” and “balance” of the world’s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC’s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time.

Gulf War tested U.S. oil policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stuntz, L.G.; Smith, H.H.

1992-01-01

Success of the major oil-consuming nations dealing with the Gulf War oil shock should not breed complacency warn the authors. They note that the ability of the US and other major oil importers to eliminate the possibility of significant oil-supply disruptions is limited. Rapid replacement of disrupted supplies through use of excess production capacity was the most important event during the War, they say. However, such excess capacity cannot be counted on in future supply disruptions, they emphasize. Therefore, they conclude the US should: build its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, continue close coordination with its International Energy Agency partners, encourage diversification of world oil supply, develop portions of the Outer Continental Shelf and the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, push advanced oil recovery research and development, lower consumption, and increase flexibility in its use of other fuels

Weak oil prices seen hindrance to pace of increase in gas use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

World demand for gas is expected to rocket, yet future natural gas and liquefied natural gas projects remain threatened by the link of gas prices to crude oil prices. This is the main message that emerged from the 19th World Gas Conference in Milan last week. A number of reports predicted regional demand for gas. All foresaw a rise. International Gas Union (IGU), organizer of the conference, and said world natural gas production has continued to rise despite a significant downturn in industrial production. The paper discusses gas demand in Europe, the correlation between oil and gas prices, the natural gas industry in Indonesia, Russia, and southern Europe

A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

2002-01-01

This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

The new great game : international oil markets; Middle East domination or regionalisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, P.R.

1998-01-01

The dynamics of international supply and demand for oil and its effect on world oil prices are discussed. The impact of stagnant prices over the past 15 years on the Middle East, Russia, China and OPEC members was described, together with an attempt to explain the reasons for: (1) Middle East domination or regionalisation, (2) the emergence of a regionalized oil industry, (3) the Middle East as the residual supplier, and (4) the future of Middle East oil and of traded markets. 3 tabs., 5 figs

The need for nuclear power. Viewpoint on the world's challenging energy future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhodes, R.; Beller, D.

2000-01-01

To meet the world's growing need for energy, the Royal Society and Royal Academy report proposes 'the formation of an international body for energy research and development, funded by contributions from individual nations on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or total national energy consumption'. The body would be 'a funding agency supporting research, development and demonstrators elsewhere, not a research center itself'. Its budget might build to an annual level of some $25 billion, 'roughly 1% of the total global energy budget'. If it truly wants to develop efficient and responsible energy supplies, such a body should focus on the nuclear option, on establishing a secure international nuclear-fuel storage and reprocessing system, and on providing expertise for siting, financing, and licensing modular nuclear power systems to developing nations. According to authors, who study the dynamics of energy technologies, 'the share of energy supplied by electricity is growing rapidly in most countries and worldwide'. Throughout history, humankind has gradually decarbonized its dominant fuels, moving steadily away from the more polluting, carbon-rich sources. Thus the world has gone from coal (which has one hydrogen atom per carbon atom and was dominant from 1880 to 1950) to oil (with two hydrogens per carbon, dominant from 1950 to today). Natural gas (four hydrogens per carbon) is steadily increasing its market share. But nuclear fission produces no carbon at all. Physical reality - not arguments about corporate greed, hypothetical risks, radiation exposure, or waste disposal - ought to inform decisions vital to the future of the world. Because diversity and redundancy are important for safety and security, renewable energy sources ought to retain a place in the energy economy of the century to come. But nuclear power should be central. Despite its outstanding record, it has instead been relegated by its opponents to the same twilight zone of contentious

Drewry: Mideast in firm control of world oil supplies for 1990s

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

Surging economic growth in the Far East will push up world crude oil demand steadily in the 1990s despite the current economic downturn. It will fall to members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to meet that increased demand, given the expected decline in non-OPEC production. And because OPEC members in the Persian Gulf region are best positioned to meet the increase, the balance of power in oil markets will shift even more in favor of the Middle East. Seaborne oil exports from the Middle East will jump almost 30% by 1997 from 1991 levels. There will be a worldwide rise of 16% in the volume of seaborne crude oil trade, with a 29% hike in movements of refined products by tanker. Those are among the findings of a report by Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London. Drewry said, It is expected that 1992 will be a low point in non-OPEC output and that production levels will recover steadily from 1993 onward, although not rapidly enough to match the anticipated rise in demand. Drewry estimates non-OPEC production in 1997 at 37.1 million b/d vs. 38.1 million b/d in 1991. With non-OPEC production falling by 2.6% between 1991 and 1997, OPEC producers will have the scope to increase their output by almost 32% over the same period

Panama: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Texaco signed a contract to explore 1.1 million acres in Blocks 1 and 2, on and offshore the northwestern coast. The firm has not revealed any plans beyond conducting a preliminary analysis. No drilling was reported last year. Switzerland-based Idria Oil and Gas, which drilled and abandoned three offshore wells with oil and gas shows in 1989, the it has no plans for 1991. However, the firm the it may drill three wells in 1992

Seychelles: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on the small island group that was host to the first Indian Ocean Regional Seminar on Petroleum Exploration in mid-December. Efforts are under way to set up a regional system for cooperation in petroleum between countries in the region that hope to become oil producers. Offshore permits are held by Enterprise Oil and recently by Texaco. Ultamar Exploration Ltd. signed an eight-year offshore exploration contract becoming only the fourth company to attempt exploration off the archipelago

The economic impact of oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krymm, R.

1974-01-01

During the last three months of 1973, the tax-paid costs of typical grades of crude petroleum in the main producing areas of the world, around the Persian Gulf, were roughly quadrupled, rising for typical Iranian and Arabian Ugh t crudes from about $1.85 per barrel in September 1973 to more than $7.00 by 1 January 1974, or from approximately $13.30 to more than $50.00 per ton. Since the cost of production represents an insignificantly small fraction of the new cost level (less than 2%) and subject to complex adjustments reflecting varying qualities of crude oils and advantages of geographical location, the producing countries may expect to receive a minimum average revenue of $50.00 per ton of crude oil produced on their territory instead of $12.50. If we ignore the purchases which carried the prices of relatively small amounts of oil to the $100-$150 range, this figure of $50.00 per ton with future adjustments for inflation represents a probable guide line for future cost estimates. The change affects exports of close to 1.4 billion tons of oil and consequently involves an immediate shift of financial resources of close to 60 billion dollars per year from the oil-consuming to the oil-producing countries. Tables 1, 2 and 3 give an idea of the distribution of this burden by main geographical regions and of its possible evolution over the next seven years. The figures involved are so large that comparisons have been made by some authors with the reparations proposals advanced by the Allies at the end of the First World War. It has been pointed out that the market price of a typical quality of crude such as Arabian light had in fact fallen from $1.93 per barrel in 1955 to $1.26 in 1970. When the intervening industrial price inflation is taken into account this means that the price of oil had in fact been divided by 3 during a period when oil consumption was growing at an annual rate of more than 7% and oil was displacing coal as the major fuel of the world. During the

Brazil: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Brazil's state oil company Petrobras has racked up a significant period of achievement over the last 12 months. Average daily oil production hit a new high. A small portion of deepwater giant Marlim field came onstream. Risk contracts ended, and the firm assumed all responsibility for exploration activity in Brazil. Furthermore, Santos basin proved to be the nation's most recent oil province after two discoveries. Last, but not least, Petrobras assumed a dominant position worldwide in development of new deepwater technology, as evidenced by papers presented at the 1991 Offshore Technology Conference. What is remarkable is that all this was achieved while the company was experiencing political turmoil. Last Oct. 19, Petrobras President Luis Octavio Motta Veiga resigned in a dispute with the Ministry of Economy (MOE) over refined product pricing levels. His replacement, interestingly enough, was the 36-year-old executive secretary of the MOE, Eduardo de Freitas Teixeira. His term at Petrobras lasted less than six months

ARCO Chairman forecasts end of oil dominance

Science.gov (United States)

Showstack, Randy

The head of one of the world's biggest oil companies said in February that the era of oil dominating the global energy market is creaking to a close. Future energy needs will be met by a mix of fuels that are less harmful to the environment, he said, and he called for the energy and automobile industries to collaborate on solutions to reduce emissions.“We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil,” ARCO Chairman Mike Bowlin said at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston, Texas, where he also described how ARCO is moving toward a new energy model. “Our challenge is not merely to survive today's low prices, but to plan for a future in which hydrocarbons are just one of a wide variety of clean fuels that will build the global economy of the 21st century”.

Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2010-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

A look at one of the world`s largest apron feeder drives - Alberta Oil Sands Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Persson, O. [Hagglunds Drives Canada Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

1999-10-01

Various types of equipment to transport tar sands to processing plants are discussed, with special attention to the advantages of hydraulic direct drives over conventional electro-mechanical drives. A hydraulic direct drive such as the Hagglund Drive has exceptional starting torque capacity due to the high torque capability of the hydraulic motor. As such, it can be particularly useful in applications where shock loads occur with some frequency, or where many starts and stops are needed. Application of the Hagglund drive to power one of the world`s largest apron feeders in the Alberta Oil Sands is described as an illustration of the exceptional reliability, productivity and performance of this equipment. It has about one five-hundredth of the inertia of an equivalent high speed drive with gear reducer, a feature which is particularly significant in the case of feeders which are known to suffer much downtime due to chain related problems. These types of drives have also been used to great advantage in the process industries like pulp and paper, chemical, rubber and plastics, recycling and steel. 1 tab., 1 fig.

Tunisia: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on more attractive E and P terms, and the Abiod Chalk oil play which means busier exploration in Tunisia. E and P agreement terms and conditions have been liberalized in the face of declining oil and gas production, thus encouraging development of smaller, previously marginal prospects. Ownership and acreage changes may have significant impact in the next few years as Texaco, under a farm-in, has acquired 60% and operatorship of Conquest Exploration's El Jem onshore block and Samedan acquired large acreage interests from Royal Dutch Shell

Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalick, S.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

1980-08-01

An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

The future of energy security in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Rajan

2006-10-01

Energy is essential for modern life and is a critical resource that we take for granted. Economies and security of nations depend on reliable and cost-effective access. As the world transitions from conventional oil and natural gas to nuclear, renewables, and unconventional sources we are increasingly confronted by many unsettling questions. Will there be enough cheap oil and gas for preserve the standard of living in the developed world and allow the industrializing world to develop? Will renewable sources provide a significant fraction of our energy needs in the near future? Is global warming already happening as a result of our consumption of fossil fuels? If there is a resource crunch before new sources come on line, will there be conflict or global cooperation? This talk will attempt to answer these questions by examining the global oil and gas resources, geopolitics, and key science and technology issues that need to be addressed by the global community with cooperation and a sense of urgency.

A comprehensive guide of remediation technologies for oil contaminated soil - Present works and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Mee Wei; Lau, Ee Von; Poh, Phaik Eong

2016-08-15

Oil spills result in negative impacts on the environment, economy and society. Due to tidal and waves actions, the oil spillage affects the shorelines by adhering to the soil, making it difficult for immediate cleaning of the soil. As shoreline clean-up is the most costly component of a response operation, there is a need for effective oil remediation technologies. This paper provides a review on the remediation technologies for soil contaminated with various types of oil, including diesel, crude oil, petroleum, lubricating oil, bitumen and bunker oil. The methods discussed include solvent extraction, bioremediation, phytoremediation, chemical oxidation, electrokinetic remediation, thermal technologies, ultrasonication, flotation and integrated remediation technologies. Each of these technologies was discussed, and associated with their advantages, disadvantages, advancements and future work in detail. Nonetheless, it is important to note that no single remediation technology is considered the best solution for the remediation of oil contaminated soil. This review provides a comprehensive literature on the various remediation technologies studied in the removal of different oil types from soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niloo Hojjati

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Canada is well recognized for its prominence as an oil and gas jurisdiction in regard to its resources within its own borders. However, there is little available analysis and information regarding the presence of Canadian companies in the international arena. Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, firm-level data from publicly traded Canadian companies are collected and analyzed, culminating in the development of an online tool for public use. This map allows interested users to geographically locate jurisdictions around the world where publicly traded Canadian oil and gas (hereafter O&G companies have activities, over time. The map is available at http://www.policyschool.ca/ research-teaching/teaching-training/extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. This project, hereafter referred to as the WIW project, provides a measure that quantifies Canadian oil and gas activity around the world and identifies key jurisdictions that are of particular interest to Canadian O&G companies. The data collected holds value for various stakeholders such as governments, regulatory bodies, academia, civil society, and industry across the extractive resource spectrum. Prior to further discussion regarding the 2011 annual data results, it is valuable to provide a brief overview of the methodology used in the collection of data for this research project. The WIW project examines the global activities of Canadian O&G companies in 218 countries spanning seven international regions of analysis.1 The aim of the WIW project is to examine the international presence of Canadian companies in foreign countries. As such, it is important to note that this project does not provide information related to the activities of Canadian companies within Canada’s border, such as the

Athabasca, Cold Lake and the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFarland, J.D.

1993-01-01

It is suggested that Alberta oil sands have the potential to sustain and increase the wealth creation capacity of the Canadian petroleum sector now and well into the next century. Realizing this potential in the present-day competitive and interconnected world crude oil market is a challenge to be addressed in four areas: markets, operations, technology, and stakeholder support. Real price improvement in the world oil market is not expected in the near future, given near-static demand and a continuously increasing worldwide supply potential. Even in such a market, there are specialized niches where Canadian heavy oil should be competitive. These markets are continental and are mainly high- and medium-conversion refineries and upgraders. Demand for Canadian heavy oil is forecast to grow ca 4%/y to over 800,000 bbl/d by 2000. Supply will closely track demand 1995-98 and be slightly below demand before 1995 and after 1998. Improvements in existing operations to lower production costs and increase efficiency are being made at the Cold Lake and Syncrude facilities. The development of technology to improve recovery and lower supply costs will trigger further development, and impressive gains have already been realized as a result from ongoing research. The final condition needed to allow the oil sand sector to realize its potential is informed and supportive stakeholders (investors, customers, governments, and communities), who need to understand the unique attributes and potential awards of the oil sand business. 6 figs

Geo-economy of world energy supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauthier, Jean-Michel

2009-01-01

For over 50 years now, the global primary energy demand structure has been based on fossil fuels for more than 80%. In 25 years, our energy needs will still be covered by an over 80% fossil energy mix according to the reference scenario of most energy agencies. Over this period of time, the economics of energy will be radically altered as a result of a long term sustained global demand of energy and a growing constraint on some hydrocarbon production, conventional oil in particular. The oil production profile on currently operated oil fields, essentially in the OECD, will further decline or require significantly increasing investments. Non conventional oil sources are already proving to be even more capital-intensive. In the face of dwindling reserves in the old OECD hydrocarbon basins, the only resource-rich region in the world with low extraction costs and available swing supply capacities is the Middle East. Tomorrow's oil industry and markets will therefore represent a risk concentrated around a single region in the world, whilst the global gas industry will face a risk concentrated around two regions in the world, including Russia and the Middle East. Massive investments in energy infrastructures will be necessary to bring gas from these two sources to the remote markets in Asia, Europe or the US. The era of cheap energy is definitely gone. Far from being an obsolete fuel, coal is and will remain the most abundant, competitive and favoured source of energy for power generation across the world. CO_2 emissions from coal use are coal's only handicap. The vision of our energy future is in front of us: the environment will be filthy, energy will be costly and geopolitical tensions between producers and consumers will be strong

World energy projections to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, P.; Kouvaritakis, N.

2000-01-01

This paper provides a description of the international energy projections elaborated with the POLES energy model for the purpose of analysing, in other papers of this issue, the impacts of technological change at world level and to 2030. Section 2 describes the key exogenous hypotheses on population and economic growth used for this projection, as well as the main resulting changes for the world energy system and in terms of CO 2 emissions. In Section 3 the dynamics of the energy systems are further analysed for four main world regions, while Section 4 is dedicated to the identification of the key uncertainties and of their possible impacts on future energy development. Finally, the last section presents the key messages of this outlook, which shows a rapidly growing world economy and energy consumption with increasing oil and gas prices, although this last feature remains subject to uncertainties on resource endowment estimates. (orig.)

The Future of Education into a Digital World

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorica Jelev

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in an era where everything seems to change and evolve almost overnight. ”The world economic order went through a tectonic transformation, accompanied by, and in part caused by, groundbreaking advances in science and technology and the rise of globalization” . New industries start to develop, while others are on their last legs or already extinct in a world of advanced, emerging, and developing countries. As a result, lots of jobs from years past aren’t as relevant today as they once were, and many no longer exist. Therefore it’s easy to predict that eventually, today’s jobs will evolve into something completely different. And some will become obsolete. And it is those changes that lead to multiple consequences, affecting many other fields, one being education. We need a broad, flexible and motivating education that recognizes the different talents of all children and delivers excellence for everyone. Studying methods and curricula from the 20th century may no longer be relevant in the constantly evolving and changing world of the 21st century, in preparing you for your future job. And in order to maximize your chances of having a successful career in the field of your choice, you have to constantly adapt and evolve. Creative education involves a balance between teaching knowledge and skills, and encouraging innovation. New branches of industries will appear, and potential employers and employees will need to acquire new skills and abilities. And it is

Changing patterns in world oil supplies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khane, A R; Bischoff, G

1979-03-01

The aim of the oil countries to industrialize in as short a period as possible is discussed in a dialogue with Dr. Khane. The topics of the oil price rises, the price rises for industrial plant, worldwide unemployment, the standard of living and the excess capacities in industrial countries are also discussed.

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

1981-01-01

An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Khalik, S.I.

1980-01-01

An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrides are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpaint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

Demand for oil and energy in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolf, C. Jr.; Relles, D.A.; Navarro, J.

1980-05-01

How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less-developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade. Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important. How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs. In this report, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years. Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based. Finally, we consider the forecasts in terms of their implications for US policies concerning the NOLDCs and suggest areas of future research on NOLDC energy issues.

Angola - an Oil Dependant Country in Sub-Saharan Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baumgartner Boris

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Sub-Saharan Africa belongs to the most underdeveloped regions in the world economy. This region consists of forty nine countries but it’s world GDP share is only a small percentage. There are some very resource rich countries in this region. One of them is Angola. This former Portuguese colony has one of the largest inventories of oil among all African countries. Angola recorded one of the highest growth of GDP between 2004-2008 from all countries in the world economy and nowadays is the third biggest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and South Africa. The essential problem of Angola is the one-way oriented economy on oil and general on natural resources. Angola will be forced to change their one-way oriented economy to be more diversified and competitive in the future.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarnoczi, Tyler

2013-01-01

Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

The development of the world's population as a factor determining future energy requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vossebrecker, H.; Henssen, H.

1988-01-01

Urgently desired economic developments improving the conditions of living in the developing countries and, in the long term, introducing a stabilization of the world's population, result in a considerable rise in world energy requirement. This, in turn, causes conflicts and raises major ecological dangers because of the accelerated depletion of fossil sources of energy it entails. The severity of the CO 2 problem emerges clearly only when seen in connection with the population growth of the developing countries. Undoubtedly, therefore, the fossil sources of energy will have to give up their present leading role in world energy supply because of the intolerable environmental pollution they produce and because of the dwindling oil and gas reserves. The only hope remaining for the present is the possibility of nuclear power and renewable energies pointly being able to meet requirements, while all economically reasonable conservation potentials are being exploited. (orig./UA) [de

World won't be without hydrocarbons by 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pauron, M.

2008-01-01

Despite the financial crisis and the revisited 2007 prospects, the 2008 edition of the 'World Energy Outlook' (WEO-2008) of the International Energy Agency (OECD/IEA) foresees a regular increase of oil and gas demand. WEO-2008 draws on the experience of another turbulent year in energy markets to provide new energy projections to 2030, region by region and fuel by fuel. It incorporates the latest data and policies. WEO-2008 focuses on two pressing issues facing the energy sector today: - Prospects for oil and gas production: How much oil and gas exists and how much can be produced? Will investment be adequate? Through field-by-field analysis of production trends at 800 of the world's largest oil fields, an assessment of the potential for finding and developing new reserves and a bottom-up analysis of upstream costs and investment, WEO-2008 takes a hard look at future global oil and gas supply. - Post-2012 climate scenarios: What emissions limits might emerge from current international negotiations on climate change? What role could cap-and-trade and sectoral approaches play in moving to a low-carbon energy future? Two different scenarios are assessed, one in which the atmospheric concentration of emissions is stabilised at 550 parts per million (ppm) in CO 2 equivalent terms and the second at the still more ambitious level of 450 ppm. The implications for energy demand, prices, investment, air pollution and energy security are fully spelt out. This ground-breaking analysis will enable policy makers to distill the key choices as they strive to agree in Copenhagen in 2009 on a post-Kyoto climate framework. The good news in this energy outlook is that renewable energies will become in 2020 the second source of power generation

United States foreign oil policy since World War 1 : for profits and security. 2 ed.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Randall, S.J.

2005-07-01

This book provided a historical context for United States global oil politics, with a focus on the goals, accomplishments and challenges of United States foreign oil policy, as well as on the relationship between the state and private sectors. This second edition has integrated developments in global politics since the end of the Cold War. It was suggested that many factors have provided the context for oil policy formation: a succession of crises in Iran since the 1950s; 2 wars in Iraq; U.S. intervention in Afghanistan; the threat of international terrorism since September 11, 2001; ongoing conflicts between Israel and the Arab nations in the Middle East; political instability in Saudi Arabia and in Venezuela and the trend towards trade and investment liberalization in Latin America in the 1990s. In addition, the emergence of oil sands reserves in Canada and other sources of non-conventional oil were discussed. Nationalism and oil policies in the Depression and World War 2 were examined. The structure of decision-making in oil policies was examined. Domestic and offshore resources were reviewed, and an outline of international agreements and relationships was presented. Issues concerning OPEC countries and the Iranian Revolution were examined. It was concluded that the United States has become more and not less vulnerable, despite its military strength. The author suggested that the main policy challenge to the United States may well be the tension between its commitment to Israel and its determination to avoid alienating the Arab oil-producing states. refs., tabs., figs.

Trinidad and Tobago: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that Trinidad and Tobago has decided to increase its oil export revenue by pumping as much crude as possible. This island nation consequently has embarked on a $403-million expansion project that covers everything from initiating secondary recovery at a number of fields to upgrading the Point a Pierre refinery. Trinidad and Tobago Oil Co. (Trintoc) is operating the project and has received a $260-million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank. Another $75 million is coming from the Export-Import Bank of Japan and the European Investment Bank. Trintoc based the work on $22 oil, a level still not achieved for any duration, but the firm shows every sign of finishing the project as planned. Completion of work should impact the nation significantly. Crude oil and products account for 60% of all exports and 24% of governmental revenue. However, oil production has tumbled about 65,000 bpd from a 1978 peak of 215,000 bpd

Venezuela: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on Venezuela's expansion by state oil company PDVSA has gone from a mere concept a year ago to a well-defined plan. The five-year project that began this year and runs through 1995 received a $4-billion upgrading last fall to $25 billion. Money will be spent in increments of $5 billion/year, and all sectors are involved. Largest share, about $10.5 billion, will go to upstream projects, with $6 billion to be invested in refining, $6 billion in petrochemicals, $1.5 billion in coal and $800 million in domestic marketing. PDVSA intends to finance most of the spending directly from its cash flow. The upstream spending will go toward boosting oil production to more than 3.6 MMbpd by the beginning of 1996, with capacity topping at 4.2 MMbopd. Such heavy spending should prove a boon to the Venezuelan economy. The oil industry constitutes 23% of Venezuela's GNP, accounts for 75% of governmental revenues and produces 70% of the nation's annual foreign exchange earnings. The Ministry of Planning already is forecasting a 7% leap in real growth of the GNP this year

This time it's different. An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)

2008-08-15

There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)

Oil price reduction impacts on the Iranian economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdollah Mahmoodi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV, changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.

Oil Production, The Price Crash and Uncertainty in Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J. W.

2015-12-01

World oil production increased to about 74 million barrels per day by January 2005, and was fairly constant until 2011 when it started to increase to 77.8 mb/d in 2014. This spectacular increase of 4 mb/d was almost entirely due to a sharp increase in production in the US from shale formations, called light tight oil (LTO). World oil production minus this increase in US LTO Production has been flat since 2005 at about 74 mb/d. When US production starts to decline, world oil production likely will as well. That surge is forecast to end soon because LTO is expensive to produce, the first year decline rates are extremely high requiring many new wells each year to maintain or increase production and the most productive locations have already been drilled. It is unprofitable for the Exploration and Production (E&P) companies. Full-year free cash flow has been negative for most tight oil E&P companies since 2009. The total negative cash flow for the 19 largest E&P companies totaled 10.5B in 2014. The surge in US LTO production created an imbalance in global supply and demand and resulted in a 50% decrease in the price of oil. The tight-oil producers who were are financially marginal at an oil price greater than 90 per barrel are even more so at the lower price. As a result the surge in US production of LTO is declining, making it unlikely that world oil production will exceed the present value of about 28 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75 mb/d) (175 EJ/yr). Many of the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and RCP (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) require CO2 emissions due to oil consumption in the range of 32 Gb/yr to 57 Gb/yr (200 to 350 EJ/yr). The higher values would require a doubling of world oil production. It is highly uncertain whether the higher CO2 scenarios will be reached. This is an element of uncertainty missing from most considerations of future climate change.

Future industrialization of the world and the necessity of nuclear power; how limited are resources?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovanovic, J.

1996-01-01

Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist. Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers i have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper i elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. 18 refs. 3 figs. 1 tabs

Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huan Chen

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

Essays on oil and business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Aba Alkhail, Bandar A.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter one presents a theoretical model using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate the role of world oil prices in explaining the business cycle in Saudi Arabia. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. However, this model has some unfavorable features that are associated with both investment and labor hours. The second chapter presents a modified theoretical model using DSGE approach to examine the role of world oil prices versus productivity shocks in explaining the business cycles in Saudi Arabia. To overcome the unfavorable features of the baseline model, the alternative model adds friction to the model by incorporating investment portfolio adjustment cost. Thus, the alternative model produces similar dynamics to that of the baseline model but the unfavorable characteristics are eliminated. Also, this chapter conducts sensitivity analysis. The objective of the third chapter is to empirically investigate how real world oil price and productivity shocks affect output, consumption, investment, labor hours, and trade balance/output ratio for Saudi Arabia. This chapter complements the theoretical model of the previous chapters. In addition, this study builds a foundation for future studies in examining the impact of real world oil price shocks on the economies of key trade partners of Saudi Arabia. The results of the third chapter show that productivity shocks matter more for macroeconomic fluctuations than oil shocks for the Saudis' primary trade partners. Therefore, fears of oil importing countries appear to be overstated. As a whole, this research is important for the following reasons. First, the empirical model is consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model in that productivity is a driving force of business cycles in Saudi Arabia

Ubiquitous Wireless Sensor Networks and future “Internet of Things""

OpenAIRE

Vermesan, Ovidiu

2009-01-01

Overview of heterogeneous networks of embedded devices that can range from RFID, to smart identifiable systems with sensing and actuating capabilitie. Presentation of wireless sensor networks protocols and Internet of Things future technology. Bridging the real, virtual and digital worlds by using wireless connectivity. Application examples in automotive, aeronautics, healthcare, building, oil and gas industries. Ubiquitous Wireless Sensor Networks and future “Internet ...

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-01-01

The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature. The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future. For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal. Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here. For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates

Angola: World Oil Report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that prospects of Angola, free of political complications, are certain to bring a flurry of interest from oil firms and could mean an influx of foreign capital. Licensing will be under production-sharing terms, but incentives may be offered due to increased risks inherent in deeper water. Long term security and stability remain uncertain. In addition to Unita and previously communist MPLA, new factions from 16 years of civil war are gaining support and increasing possibilities for violence. Oil firms consider production-sharing terms high and current price cap clauses keep them from realizing benefits from price increases after contracts are signed. However, geology and exploration successes have overshadowed concerns

Global market trade policy analysis for petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bagheri, F.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article is based on surveying the custom tariffs imposed on the world export market of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. We obtained the data according to the most updated available data provided online by UNCTAD and World Bank. The results indicate that none of the 142 countries in the world market of this product have imposed non-tariff trade barriers on the import of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. The developed countries and the countries with transition economies are the main world import partners. European Union, United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Australia, Turkey, Brazil, Sweden and Belarus are the examples and have imposed low custom tariffs on Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude.

CEO's guide to world business costs : oil and gas equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This paper presents the results of a detailed study of wellhead equipment manufacturing costs in 11 countries in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Canada has a 5 per cent cost advantage and will be the best country in the world to do business between 2004 to 2008 because of its foreign trade policies, high quality infrastructure and market opportunities within the North American marketplace. KPMG Consulting developed a web-based cost model that allows investors to examine the costs involved in setting up and operating a business in more than 120 cities in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Japan and Australia. According to the model, a comparison of annual costs for oil and gas wellhead equipment manufacturing was presented for the 11 countries with reference to revenues, costs, and profits before and after income tax. In addition, Canada's research and development (R and D) cost advantage compared to the United States was presented, with reference to tax credits, expenditures, salaries, contracts, capital equipment, volume-based tax credits, and research studies. This report also includes a brief summary of 3 oil and gas companies that came to Canada and prospered. tabs., figs

Fuels for the oil-fuelled heating system of the future; Brennstoffe fuer die Oelheiztechnik der Zukunft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rheinberg, O. van [Oel-Waerme-Institut GmbH, An-Institut der RWTH Aachen, Herzogenrath (Germany). Abt. Energietraeger

2011-02-15

For ecological and political reasons bio-heating-oil of up to 10.9 vol.% of Fatty-Acid-Methyl-Ester (FAME) is available in the market. For new installations the appliance industry has approved their products for the use of this bio-heating-oil. For existing oil firing plants minor changes are necessary. These are the use of qualified oil burner pumps, oil tubes, oil pre-filter and the change to single chord system in order to avoid the continuous circulation of heating oil. Due to the chemical and physical properties an admixture of up to 20.9 vol.% of FAME in heating oil sulphur low is feasible. One of the main requirements to introduce such fuel in the market is the guarantee of storage stability over several years even by such high levels of FAME. To reach this goal an accurate predictability of fuel stability and different actions for the stabilisation of such bio-heating oil are necessary. Hence several investigations are undertaken at Oel-Waerme-Institut to ensure higher levels of FAME or of other alternative fuels in the future. (orig.)

The future of petroleum fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laredo, J.

1997-01-01

The world relies greatly on hydrocarbons for its energy. The three main problems associated with this dependence on fossil fuels are that (1) most consuming countries depend on oil supplied from high-risk producing countries, (2) oil reserves will eventually deplete, and (3) the burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases that are harmful to the environment and human health. In response to some of these concerns, governments have set emissions standards and have encouraged the development of alternative energy sources. This trend will have a significant impact on the transportation sector, oil companies and car manufacturers. This monograph attempts to evaluate qualitatively the potential of various alternative technologies, especially on the transportation sector. Alternative technology research in the United States and Europe by the automobile and electrical industries was examined. Preparation by the oil companies for the changes that they will have to confront in the not-too-distant future were also reviewed. 82 refs., 7 tabs., 20 figs

Will Venezuelan extra-heavy oil be a significant source of petroleum in the next decades?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sena, Marcelo Fonseca Monteiro de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Szklo, Alexandre

2013-01-01

Unconventional oil resources are needed to complement petroleum supply in the next decades. However, given the restrictions that pertain to the production of these resources, this article evaluates the availability of Venezuelan unconventional oil for helping meet the future worldwide petroleum demand. Venezuela has the world's second-largest oil reserves, but the majority of it is unconventional extra-heavy oil from the Orinoco Oil Belt. The perspective of Venezuelan production, the ways in which PDVSA, the state oil company, will raise funds for planned investments and the future oil price predictions are used to assess Venezuela's ability to serve as a source of unconventional oil in the coming years. Findings indicate that Venezuelan crude oil will be increasingly able to provide part of the marginal petroleum supply at a level predicted in global scenarios but short of that predicted by the country's government. Operational difficulties and the effort to raise financial resources for the oil production in the Belt require urgency in overcoming difficulties. As conventional production in Venezuela will stabilise in the coming years and the country is dependent on oil production, Venezuela will rely on extra-heavy oil extraction to ensure increased oil production and the stabilisation of internal accounts. - Highlights: • We analyse the future unconventional oil production capacity of Venezuela. • The study is based on operational capacity, investments capacity and future prices. • The study indicates a production shorter than that predicted by the Venezuelan government. • Venezuela can provide part of the marginal petroleum supply in the coming years

Climate-wise choices in a world of oil abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Adam R.; Masnadi, Mohammad S.; Englander, Jacob G.; Koomey, Jonathan; Gordon, Deborah

2018-04-01

Constrained oil supply has given way to abundance at a time when strong action on climate change is wavering. Recent innovation has pushed US oil production to all-time heights and driven oil prices lower. At the same time, attention to climate policy is wavering due to geopolitical upheaval. Nevertheless, climate-wise choices in the oil sector remain a priority, given oil’s large role in modern economies. Here we use a set of open-source models along with a detailed dataset comprising 75 global crude oils (~25% of global production) to estimate the effects of carbon intensity and oil demand on decadal scale oil-sector emissions. We find that oil resources are abundant relative to all projections of 21st century demand, due to large light-tight oil (LTO) and heavy oil/bitumen (HOB) resources. We then investigate the ‘barrel forward’ emissions from producing, refining, and consuming all products from a barrel of crude. These oil resources have diverse life-cycle-greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions impacts, and median per-barrel emissions for unconventional resources vary significantly. Median HOB life cycle emissions are 1.5 times those of median LTO emissions, exceeding them by 200 kgCO2eq./bbl. We show that reducing oil LC-GHGs is a mitigation opportunity worth 10–50 gigatonnes CO2 eq. cumulatively by 2050. We discuss means to reduce oil sector LC-GHGs. Results point to the need for policymakers to address both oil supply and oil demand when considering options to reduce LC-GHGs.

Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Lin Chang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

Oil-producing flowers within the Iridoideae (Iridaceae): evolutionary trends in the flowers of the New World genera.

Science.gov (United States)

Chauveau, Olivier; Eggers, Lilian; Souza-Chies, Tatiana T; Nadot, Sophie

2012-08-01

Oil-producing flowers related to oil-bee pollination are a major innovation in Neotropical and Mexican Iridaceae. In this study, phylogenetic relationships were investigated among a wide array of New World genera of the tribes Sisyrinchieae, Trimezieae and Tigridieae (Iridaceae: Iridoideae) and the evolution of floral glandular structures, which are predominantly trichomal elaiophores, was examined in relation to the diversification of New World Iridaceae. Phylogenetic analyses based on seven molecular markers obtained from 97 species were conducted to produce the first extensive phylogeny of the New World tribes of subfamily Iridoideae. The resulting phylogenetic hypothesis was used to trace the evolutionary history of glandular structures present in the flowers of numerous species in each tribe. Hypotheses of differential diversification rates among lineages were also investigated using both topological and Binary-State Speciation and Extinction methods. Floral glandular structures and especially trichomal elaiophores evolved multiple times independently in the American tribes of Iridoideae. The distribution pattern of species displaying glandular trichomes across the phylogeny reveals lability in the pollination system and suggests that these structures may have played a significant role in the diversification of the Iridoideae on the American continent.

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, David L.; Liu, Changzheng

2015-01-01

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. -- Highlights: •Increased oil production and decreased use caused U.S. oil imports to fall from 60% in 2005 to 27% in 2014. •OPEC's market power appears to have increased due to lower oil price elasticities. •Future costs of oil dependence to the U.S. are likely to increase but decrease relative to GDP. •If U.S. oil resources are far larger than EIA estimates, the U.S. could be oil independent by 2040

What will working for an oil and gas company be like in the year 2000?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuller, H.L.; Sullivan, J.; Davidson, G.A. Jr.; Beghini, V.G.; Mitchell, G.P.; Noto, L.A.; Keiser, R.; Allen, W.

1994-01-01

In a period of change and uncertainty, the question has no guaranteed answer. But to people who work in the oil and gas industry, and to those who might do so someday, it is crucial. Oil and Gas Journal posed the question to top executives in a sample of oil and gas companies. Their answers, in alphabetical order by company name, make up the first part of this special report. Executives comment in the following sections: Free trade promises era of prosperity; Future will be more than extension of trends now shaping the industry; Cooperation essential in era of rising competitive pressure; Technology central to success in new world of opportunity; Crude price the biggest wildcard in the US oil industry's future; Work force diversity a key part of an increasingly global business; Looking back from the future--The seamless energy company; and Gains seen in safety, rewards, satisfaction

Oil spills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katsouros, M.H.

1992-01-01

The world annually transports 1.7 billion tons of oil by sea, and oil spills, often highly concentrated discharges, are increasing from a variety of sources. The author discusses sources of oils spills: natural; marine transportation; offshore oil production; atmospheric sources; municipal industrial wastes and runoff. Other topics include: the fate of the spilled oil; the effects of the oil; the response to oil spills; and prevention of oil spills. 30 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

Non-OPEC future production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, C.J.

1997-01-01

Recent optimistic predictions of future growth in non-OPEC oil production have failed to discuss the underlying resource base. Peak discovery occurred some time ago and exploration has been sufficiently extensive to indicate that no new major provinces remain undetected. Advances in technology are likely only to influence production from the smaller and more difficult fields and will not have much effect globally. The main impact of improved technology is to increase the production rate and accelerate depletion thereby. The recent increasing trend in non-OPEC production cannot be extrapolated indefinitely. It is argued that Gulf OPEC share of world production will rise to 30% before the end of the century in response to rising demand thus setting the scene for another oil price shock. (UK)

Is Estonian oil shale beneficial in the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinsalu, Enno

1998-01-01

Oil shale mining production reached its maximum level of 31.35·10 6 tonnes per year in 1980. After the eighties there was a steady decline in mining. The first scientific prognoses of the inescapable decrease in oil shale mining were published in 1988. According to this, the Estonian oil shale industry would vanish in the third decade of the next century. From the beginning of the nineties, the consumption and export of electricity have dropped in Estonia. The minimum level of oil shale mining was 13.5·10 6 tonnes per year. This occurred in 1994/1995. Some increase in consumption of electric power and oil shale began at the end of 1995. Oil shale processing began to increase gradually in 1993. Oil shale is the most important fuel in Estonia today. In 1997, oil shale provided 76% of Estonia's primary energy supply and accounted for 57% of its economic value. Oil shale is the cheapest fuel in Estonia. Nowadays, oil shale provides an essential part of the fuel supply in Estonia because it is considerably cheaper than other fuels. Oil shale costs EEK 12.16 per G J. At the same time, coal costs EEK 23.41 per G J and peat costs EEK 14.80 per G J (year 1997). There are three important customers of oil shale: the electric power company Eesti Energia, the oil processing company Kiviter and the factory Kunda Nordic Cement. In 1995, the power company utilised 81% of the oil shale mass and 77% of its heating value. The state energy policy inhibits increases in the oil shale price even though the mining infrastructure is decaying. Government price policies subside oil shale processing. The energy of oil shale processing is 1.9 times cheaper than the heating value of raw oil shale for power stations. It could be considered as a state subsidisation of oil and cement export at the expense of electricity. The subsidy assigned to oil processing was of EEK 124·10 6 and to the cement industry of EEK 8.4·10 6 in year 1997 (based on heating value). State regulation of prices and

Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan

2014-01-01

One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil, the world GDP per capita, and post-Islamic revolution exogenous dummy variables, we show that international oil prices respond negatively and statistically significant to increasing shock in absolute negative changes of the Iranian oil exports – our proxy of Iran oil sanctions – following the first 2 years after shock. The main reason is the positive response of the non-Iranian oil supply to negative shocks in Iranian oil exports, filling the missing supply of Iranian oil in international markets. - Highlights: • We analyze the interconnections between Iranian oil supply and global oil prices. • We use VAR modeling and annual data from 1965 to 2012 for the case of Iran. • There are no inflationary effects of Iranian oil sanction on world oil prices. • Non-Iranian oil supply offsets the missing Iranian oil in the market

The future of oil and bioethanol in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreira, Jose R.; Pacca, Sergio A.; Parente, Virginia

2014-01-01

This work compares the return on investments (ROI) of oil versus biofuels in Brazil. Although several renewable energy sources might displace oil, the country's forte is sugarcane biofuels. In our analysis we carry out simplified benefit–cost analyses of producing oil fields, pre-salt oil fields (without and with enhanced oil recovery), a business as the usual ethanol scenario, and a high ethanol scenario. Excluding the ROI from existing oil fields, which is the highest, when the discount rate is 4% or more, the ROI of the high ethanol scenario is greater than that of the ROI of pre-salt oil. Considering a US$40/t CO 2 tax, the high ethanol scenario's ROI is greater than the pre-salt oil's ROI if a discount rate of 2% or more is adopted. Moreover, the high ethanol scenario throughput up to 2070 compares to 97% of the pre-salt oil reserve without EOR, and demands 78% of its investment. Pre-salt oil production declines beyond 2042 when the country might become a net oil importer. In contrast, ethanol production reaches 2.1 million boe per day, and another 0.9 million boe of fossil demand is displaced through bioelectricity, yielding a total of 3 million boe (62% of the country's oil demand). - Highlights: • Cost-benefit analyses of pre-salt and biofuels in Brazil. • Hubbert model applied to pre-salt oil reserves. • Sustainable energy scenarios. • Carbon mitigation accounting based on biofuel scenarios. • Enhanced oil recovery effect on pre-salt oil reserves

CONTAGIOUS EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES ON ASIAN STOCK MARKETS’ BEHAVIOUR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jok-Tong Wan

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to examine the stock markets’ shock due to the effect of the price of oil in the East Asia Region. Particularly, this study examines if there is stock market interdependence during global oil price shocks (sudden changes for a sample of five total oil importers (the Philippines, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, four net oil importers (Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, and China, and one net oil exporter (Malaysia between 1999 and 2014. From the result, an oil price change is collectively found to have a small but significant positive impact on the stock markets, in particular where a sudden decrease in oil prices tends to cause a stock market downturn and volatility. The world economy’s spending, financial investments in oil futures and foreign investment by oil rich nations are some underlying motives for inducing this oil-stock positive relation. The same direction of time-varying conditional correlations is found across East Asian stock markets during negative oil price shocks. The integration among East Asian stock markets is inducing the oil shock contagion to be transmitted from direct oil-affected countries (South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore to non-direct oil affected countries’ (Japan and Taiwan stock markets. In spite of a long practiced ASEAN+3 macroeconomics surveillance process and Early Warning System (EWS which can be customized for stock markets to prevent or detect the oil risk, hedging against initial oil-affected stock markets and a stronger influence by the East Asian countries in the global world of oil and capital investment are strongly suggested.

Heavy crude oils - From Geology to Upgrading - An Overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huc, A.Y.

2010-01-01

Heavy oils, extra-heavy oils and tar sands are major players for the future of energy. They represent a massive world resource, at least the size of conventional oils. They are found all over the world but Canada and Venezuela together account, by themselves, for more than half of world deposits. They share the same origin as the lighter conventional oils, but their geological fate drove them into thick, viscous tar-like crude oils. Most of them result from alteration processes mediated by microbial degradation. They are characterized by a low content of lighter cuts and a high content of impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen compounds and metals; so, their production is difficult and deployment of specific processes is required in order to enhance their transportability and to upgrade them into valuable products meeting market needs, and honouring environmental requirements. Although these resources are increasingly becoming commercially producible, less than 1% of total heavy crude oil deposits worldwide are under active development. The voluntarily wide scope of this volume encompasses geology, production, transportation, upgrading, economics and environmental issues of heavy oils. It does not pretend to be exhaustive, but to provide an authoritative view of this very important energy resource. Besides presenting the current status of knowledge and technology involved in exploiting heavy oils, the purpose is to provide an insight into technical, economic and environmental challenges that should be taken up in order to increase the efficiency of production and processing, and finally to give a prospective view of the emerging technologies which will contribute to releasing the immense potential reserves of heavy oil and tar deposits. Contents: Part 1. Heavy Crude Oils.1. Heavy Crude Oils in the Perspective of World Oil Demand. 2. Definitions and Specificities. 3. Geological Origin of Heavy Crude Oils. 4. Properties and composition. Part 2. Reservoir Engineering

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xin

Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

Crude oil pricing in Asia and future problems; Asia no gen`yu pricing to kongo no kadai

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-01-30

This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.

Genetic determinism of oil acidity among some DELI oil palm (Elaeis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

USER

2016-08-24

Aug 24, 2016 ... Key words: Elaeis guineensis Jacq., free fatty acid content, crude palm oil, inheritance. INTRODUCTION. The oil palm (Elaeis ... of world's production of vegetable oils. The highest palm oil producing countries ... Without prior refining, acidic palm oil is improper for human consumption (Anonymous, 2005).

The geopolitics of oil in a carbon-constrained world

OpenAIRE

Verbruggen, Aviel; Van de Graaf, Thijs

2015-01-01

Aviel Verbruggen and Thijs Van de Graaf posit that the dominant view of oil geopolitics as a struggle over scarce reserves is lopsided. Assuming that strict carbon limits will be imposed as a result of expected climate change, they believe oil markets will face a structural glut. The geopolitics of oil revolves around abundance-induced conflict, with rival oil producers competing to serve the shrinking oil market.

REGULARITIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOLLAR IN RUSSIA ON THE WORLD PRICE OF OIL BRENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Mazurkin

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The inverse influence of the dollar in Russia as a major regional economies oil exporters, on the formation of world prices of Brent crude oil. It is shown that for the period from 31.01.2006 on 25.08.2015 this influence is characterized by a model with several wave functions, however, this model has received only average adequacy. With a much smaller error complex is formed and breaking explicitly the nonlinear function in stages three levels of behavior. The selection of stages and levels is on break, so within each stage are considered smooth algebraic functions in the form of asymmetric wavelet signals.

China's oil market and refining sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Fridley, D.G.

2000-01-01

The article assesses the future for China's oil industry as the country makes the transition from a command economy to an international market. China has one of the world's biggest oil industries and recent years have seen much growth in exploration and development, refining capacity and trade. China is more and more dependent on oil imports and is now a major international player; it has attracted much outside investment. Diagrams show (i) how coal dominates other sources of energy in China; (ii) crude production 1977-1998; (iii) how Middle East crudes now dominate Chinese crude imports; (iv) the growth of petroleum demand in China; (v) the Chinese demand for petroleum products; (vi) the growth in transport fuels; (vii) Chinese product imports: import ban targeted diesel; (viii) crude imports favoured over product imports and (ix) refinery capacity and throughput. The changes are expected to result in further integration into international markets, increased transparency and a healthier oil business

Future prospects for palm oil refining and modifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gibon Véronique

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Palm oil is rich in minor components that impart unique nutritional properties and need to be preserved. In this context, refining technologies have been improved, with the dual temperature deodorizer, the double condensing unit and the ice condensing system. The DOBI is a good tool to assess quality of the crude palm oil and its ability to be properly refined. Specially refined oils open a market for new high quality products (golden palm oil, red palm oil, white soaps, etc.. Palm oil is a good candidate for the multi-step dry fractionation process, aiming to the production of commodity oils and specialty fats (cocoa butter replacers. New technological developments allow quality and yield improvements. Palm oil and fractions are also valuable feedstock for enzymatic interesterification in which applications are for commodity oil (low-trans margarines and shortenings and for special products (cocoa butter equivalents, infant formulation, ….

Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? An Introduction to the Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niloo Hojjati

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In April 2013, The School of Public Policy formally launched the Extractive Resource Governance Program, a platform to harness Canadian and international research and technical expertise to assist resource-rich jurisdictions in establishing sustainable and mutually beneficial policies for governance of the extractive sector. The program delivers applied policy research, technical assistance and executive training programs to countries with emerging or established extractive resources, working in collaboration with governments, regulatory bodies, academia, civil society, and industry. Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project was conceived as a means to identify jurisdictions where Canadian companies had ongoing projects and activities around the world. This paper introduces the methodology used to answer the question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, firm-level data from publicly traded Canadian companies were collected and analyzed culminating in the development of an online tool for public use. This paper accompanies an interactive website launched by The School’s Extractive Resource Governance Program and describes the data available online as well as in the annual reports released by The school. The website and annual reports allow interested users to geographically locate jurisdictions around the world where publicly traded Canadian oil and gas companies have activities, over time. The website is available at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teachingtraining/extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. While Canada is a well-recognized oil and gas jurisdiction within its own borders, the extent of activity that Canadian companies undertake in the international arena is less well known. For instance, while Natural Resources Canada collects and publishes regular data on Canadian mining assets and

Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

2016-01-01

Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

The last oil century? The truth about world reserves - a geologist's viewpoint; Le dernier siecle du petrole? La verite sur les reserves mondiales - le point de vue d'un geologue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathieu, Yves

2010-11-01

Will the 21. century be the on of world oil reserves exhaustion? This fear of an oil-less world is shared by all: politicians, oil company heads, scientific experts, economists and, above all, by consumers. The author, a geologist and renowned expert of the domain, answers this vital question and presents the real situation of oil reserves country by country. He also evaluates the potentialities offered by non-conventional oils (heavy crudes, tar sands and oil shales) as well as by this desertic and hostile area considered as the new energy eldorado: the Arctic. This specialist's book, accessible to everyone, approaches in a didactic way the different economical and political stakes linked with world oil reserves. This analysis raises the issue: how long could we count on oil at accessible cost to cover our energy needs? (J.S.)

The eye of the beholder : oil sands calamity or golden opportunity?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McColl, D.

2009-02-01

Alberta's oil sands deposits are one of the largest hydrocarbon deposits in the world, and the oil sands industry has become a significant driving force in the Canadian economy. However, development in the region has slowed as a result of the recent economic downturn. This paper discussed the future of the oil sands industry, and argued that excess global oil supplies will need to be consumed before the industry fully recovers. Increased liquidity and higher oil prices are also required in order to help the industry recover. Oil sands data were aggregated and classified according to their various stages of development. Projections of bitumen production were based on the summation of all announced projects. Assumptions were adjusted to reflect current and likely near-term future outlooks for oil sands development. Results of the study indicated that the pace of development is expected to slow. Current leases will be developed at a slower pace. Prices in excess of $70 will be required for the industry to continue expanding as well as to generate a rate of return that can be reinvested into the Canadian economy. It was concluded that opportunities for current oil sands operators and new project proponents should take advantage of lower prices to source materials and equipment. 3 figs

THE WORLD OIL MARKET – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS