WorldWideScience

Sample records for future world oil

  1. Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

    2014-01-13

    This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

  2. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  3. Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history

  4. The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World. Worldwatch Paper 32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; And Others

    Possible future roles and designs of cars are examined in light of depletion of the earth's oil reserves. A major problem with regard to the rapidly changing world oil outlook is that cars will be competing with more essential claiments for scarce oil supplies including food production, industrial power, home heating, and running trucks and…

  5. World oil and gas resources-future production realities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    Welcome to uncertainty was the phrase Jack Schanz used to introduce both layman and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973. In some respects, the authors have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the blindman to describe the elephant. There can be definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper the authors try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that the author's believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties, the authors must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of the commodity in question

  6. Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T. S.

    2002-05-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey completed in 2000 a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth. One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95 percent of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces, were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil, which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about .8 TBOE; world consumption is about .014 TBOE. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18 percent leaving about 82 percent of endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25 percent of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil and gas endowment

  7. Proceedings of the CERI 2002 World Oil Conference : Reading the Future. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 18 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, OPEC's spare capacity, OPEC's view regarding increasing competition from Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in today's marketplace. The conference was divided into 6 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, business as usual, (2) world oil demand, the incredible shrinking market, (3) global oil supplies, (4) going offshore, (5) the politics of oil, and (6) the growing North American supply. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. Also, the current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential as well as the environmental, and socio-economic challenges that the industry must face. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J

    1996-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  9. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J.

    1995-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  10. On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy Eltony, M.

    1996-01-01

    The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

  11. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

    2017-12-01

    A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

  12. OPEC at middle age: facing an uncertain future in the world oil market economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    International institutions, like individuals, groups, and even societies and cultures, pass through various stages in their development as they grow from youth through middle age into more experienced and mature members of the international community. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is no exception to this generally observable phenomenon on the world economic scene. It has clearly undergone a gradual process of growth over the past three decades or so since its establishment by five founding states in Baghdad in September 1960. OPEC's history since then could be characterized as being divided into three distinct developmental stages. The first decade, the 1960s, was a period of consolidation of OPEC's power over the oil companies and their control over the member countries'oil resources. The second decade - the 1970s - was a decade characterized by almost continuous and prolonged producer - consumer confrontation as well as revelation of some of the more basic cleavages within OPEC as an organization. This was followed by the decade of the 1980s -- a period of relative accommodation between producers and consumers in the interest of longer term market stability

  13. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  14. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  15. Future role of the national oil companies in the world petroleum industry. [Of Arab states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taher, A H

    1977-11-01

    The history and role of national (i.e., multinational companies owned by an oil-exporting or -producing country) oil companies are outlined as they relate to international political and economic events. The governments of oil-exporting countries saw national oil companies as a way to gain some control over prices and revenues and to participate in development and marketing decisions. National companies can be more responsive to government policies than multinational companies during times of shortages. They provide a business arm to the government, which is politically involved in supply negotiations with other governments. National companies are felt to have a more stable position in terms of supplies, although their supplies may not be any more abundant. Multinationals will need increasingly selective investment activities after 1980 as government regulation and intervention changes market conditions. National companies may want to turn the marketing of crude oil over to the multinationals, while cooperating with them in exploration projects and the transfer of alternative energy technology. (DCK)

  16. The oil world war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lafargue, F.

    2008-01-01

    Since the beginning of the 21. century, a war has started between the USA, China and India. The USA, first oil consuming and importing country in the world, has now to take into account the increasing energy consumption of China and India. China is now, just behind Japan, the third oil importing country and India ranked number seven. From the Gulf of Guinea to the Arabic peninsula, from the Orenoque basin to the Caspian sea banks, Washington, Beijing and New Delhi covet the same oil fields. This rivalry exacerbates the political tensions in many regions of the Earth and already provokes a latent food crisis. This black gold war is changing the World's face and should provoke serious armed conflicts. (J.S.)

  17. World oil market simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldwin, N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

  18. World Energy Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-01-01

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy

  19. World resources of oil products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnaterre, Raymond

    2014-01-01

    In a first part, the author outlines that the issue of density of an oil product raises the question of the validity of a counting approach based on volumes. As oil industries produce always less heavy products and always more light products, this means that always less oil is needed to produce a gallon or a litre of fuel out of a refinery. The author comments the evolution of crude oil extraction. In a second part, he outlines that hydrocarbon productions become always more complex with respect to their origin. Thus, during gas extraction, humid gases are recovered which contain an important part of hydrocarbons similar to light oil. These aspects and the development of shale gas exploitation will make the USA the first oil producer in the world whereas they still have to import heavy oil to feed their refineries. He discusses the level of reserves and production costs with respect to the product type or its extraction location. He discusses the evolution of the estimates of world ultimately recoverable resources (synthesis processes excluded). He comments the level of condensate extraction ratio of the main shale gas fields in the USA and outlines the cost of natural gas imports for France. He outlines the importance of GTL (gas to liquid) processes, the increasing importance of bio-fuels (notably isobutanol biosynthesis and terpene biosynthesis). In the third part, the author states that the barrel price should keep on increasing and, in the fourth part, proposes a list of issues which will impact the future of the oil market

  20. Conference assesses world oil supply scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the Offshore Northern Seas conference heard a number of long term outlooks in Stavanger, Norway, last week, all with the same conclusion: the oil and gas industry needs massive investment if it is to match future demand. Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Bruntland built her scenario on a doubling of world population every 40 years. Mrs. Bruntland emphasized the growing dependence of the world economy on Middle East developments. Two thirds of the world's oil reserves are in the Persian Gulf region, she said, but only 28% of production comes from there. As the rest of the world depletes its reserves, dependence on Persian Gulf oil will grow

  1. World Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forbes, A.; Van der Linde, C.; Nicola, S.

    2009-03-15

    In the section World Energy Future of this magazine two articles, two interviews and one column are presented. The article 'A green example to the world' refers briefly to the second World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, which was held from 18-21 January, 2009. The second article, 'Green Utopia in the desert' attention is paid to the Abu Dhabi government-driven Masdar Initiative. The two interviews concern an interview with BP Alternative Energy ceo Vivienne Cox, and an interview with the founder and CEO of New Energy Finance Michael Liebreich. The column ('An efficient response') focuses on the impact of the economic crisis on energy policy.

  2. Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanhoe, L.F.

    1996-01-01

    The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world's large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth's population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia's developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert's original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world's oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production

  3. Future petroleum energy resources of the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T.S.

    2002-01-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, in 2000 the U.S. Geological Survey completed a new world assessment, exclusive of the United States, of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth.2 One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95% of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil-which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources-is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about 0.8 TBOE; world consumption is about 0.014 TBOE per year. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18%, leaving about 82% of the endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25% of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil

  4. Changes in the world market in oil and oil refinements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ristik, Julija

    1996-01-01

    Since 1980's the world market for crude oil and oil products has faced significant changes that are going to have a grate influence on the supply and consumption of crude oil derivatives in Macedonia. The knowledge of these changes would have a grate contribution in planning the future development of this part of the energetic system of Macedonia. The purpose of this paper (which is a short version of the introductory report for the ZEMAK session with a theme 'Energetic policy and development of energetics in Macedonia') is to present the actual situation on the market for crude oil products, as well as to give the main factors that would have influence on this market in the future. (author). 4 refs., 3 ills

  5. Future of oil and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatermann, R.; Ten Hoedt, R.

    2009-01-01

    Two articles in the section 'Future of oil and gas': one ('Baltic strained by oil traffic') on the growing risks of accidents in maritime traffic in the Baltic region, and one ('Angola wants bigger piece of the pie') on the importance of the oil production in Angola to energy supplies in Europe and the USA. It appears that national oil company Sonango wants to have a greater part of the profits

  6. Oil futures and spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  7. Resources and future supply of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerstad, Jan; Johnsson, Filip

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines global oil resources and the future global oil supply/demand balance. The paper builds upon several comprehensive databases designed during the work and considerable efforts have been made to review what must be considered the most reliable data. Global oil resources have been investigated on three levels; country, company and field levels. Although no decisive conclusions or quantitative assessments can be made with respect to the global oil resource base, remaining resources appear to be sufficient to meet demand up to 2030 as projected in the 2006 (and 2007) world energy outlook by the IEA. Significant resources have already been discovered beyond proven reserves, many prospective regions remain to be fully explored and there are vast volumes of recoverable unconventional oil. However, it is also concluded that global supply of oil probably will continue to be tight, both in the medium term as well as in the long term mainly as a consequence of above-ground factors such as investment constraints, geopolitical tensions, limited access to reserves and mature super-giant fields. Production of unconventional oil and synthetic fuels is not believed to significantly alter this situation. Although an increasing number of recent reports have indicated an imminent or 'soon to come' peak in global oil supply, it has not been found that any of these reports have contributed with any new information on oil resources or oil supply ability. Nevertheless, there is a distinct possibility that global oil production may peak or plateau in a relatively near future, not caused by limited resources but because too many factors over long time constrain investments into exploration and production. The lack of transparency within the oil industry obviously prevents any accurate analysis of future production and supply ability. Moreover, our ability to analyse the sector will become more difficult in the future as oil increasingly will have to be sourced from

  8. Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robelius, Fredrik

    2007-01-01

    Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter. A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR). However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production. In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018

  9. The outlook for the world and Australian oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donaldson, K.; Fok, G.

    1996-01-01

    Global demand for oil is projected to continue its upward trend to 2000-1, with growth in the transport sector expected to underpin future increases in oil consumption. World oil consumption is projected to be matched by global production, keeping the average annual oil price relatively stable. In many countries, the diversion of oil revenue to other projects is threatening to constrain increases in production capacity, particularly in the OPEC countries. The encouragement of foreign investment in state oil industries is a likely method of easing the constraint. Australian exploration activity is rising steadily with the prospect of stable oil prices, expanding gas markets and the incentives provided by a number of recent discoveries. While the geographical pattern of Australian production has now changed, with Western Australian production exceeding Victoria production, Australia is expected to maintain its position in the world oil market as a significant producer, importer and exporter. (author). 6 figs., 23 refs

  10. World electricity generation, nuclear power, and oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Striking changes have characterized the world's production and use of energy over the past 15 years. Most prominent have been the wide price fluctuations, politicization of world oil prices and supply, along with profound changes in patterns of production and consumption. This report, based on a study by energy analysts at Science Concepts, Inc., in the United States, traces changes in world energy supply since 1973-74 - the time of the first oil ''price shocks''. In so doing, it identifies important lessons for the future. The study focused in particular on the role of the electric power sector because the growth in fuel use in it has been accomplished without oil. Instead, the growth has directly displaced oil. In the pre-1973 era, the world relied increasingly on oil for many energy applications, including the production of electricity. By 1973, more than on-fourth of the world's electricity was produced by burning oil. By 1987, however, despite a large increase in electric demand, the use of oil was reigned back to generating less than 10% of the world's electricity. Nuclear power played a major role in this turnaround. From 1973-87, analysts at Science Concepts found, nuclear power displaced the burning of 11.7 billion barrels of oil world-wide and avoided US $323 billion in oil purchases

  11. The future of oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Richard G; Sorrell, Steven R

    2014-01-13

    Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in 'tight oil' production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the 'peak oil' debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue.

  12. World oil prices and domestic implications : a Russian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presented an analysis of the impact of world oil prices on the future developments of Russia's oil sector and provided an international comparison of projected crude oil prices. The main factors that influence the price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market were described with reference to how these dynamics affect Russia's internal markets. World oil prices are determined by a mixture of politics and economics. The author suggested that Russian crude will not reach the desired parity with world oil prices. It was predicted that at the very best, by 2030, domestic crude oil sales will be 80 per cent of world-market proceeds. Russian refineries will enjoy cheaper feedstock. Regardless of future world price levels, the standstill in modernizing Russia's refining sector will further narrow the profit base, causing a massive run of Russian crude to more lucrative, external markets. It was emphasized that the survival of Russia's refining sector can only be guaranteed by radical upgrading of their outdated refineries. 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  13. Hubbert's Peak: the Impending World oil Shortage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deffeyes, K. S.

    2004-12-01

    Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade. After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years. The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis. In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s.1 Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's analysis. The controversy raged until 1970, when the U.S. production of crude oil started to fall. Hubbert was right. Around 1995, several analysts began applying Hubbert's method to world oil production, and most of them estimate that the peak year for world oil will be between 2004 and 2008. These analyses were reported in some of the most widely circulated sources: Nature, Science, and Scientific American.2 None of our political leaders seem to be paying attention. If the predictions are correct, there will be enormous effects on the world economy. Even the poorest nations need fuel to run irrigation pumps. The industrialized nations will be bidding against one another for the dwindling oil supply. The good news is that we will put less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The bad news is that my pickup truck has a 25-gallon tank.

  14. Prospects for world oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esser, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    Surprises lie ahead for world oil supplies, which are expected to increase rapidly throughout the 1990s before leveling off by the end of the century. The extent of this increase could be the major surprise of the decade. Large increases in the capacity in Gulf countries accompanied by smaller increases in the non-Middle East OPEC countries will be augmented by a gradual increase in non-OPEC capacity into the late 1990s. By 2000, declining capacity in the latter two areas will offset continued capacity increases in the Gulf countries. Overall capacity in the non-OPEC countries (excluding China, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union), is expected to increase by 1.1 million BOPD from the low point in the early 1990s to a mid 1990s peak. The increase will be led by a large increase in capacity from the United Kingdom and smaller contributions from the non-Middle East OPEC countries and Mexico. In the forecast, emphasis has been placed on a detailed evaluation of recent significant discoveries made in non-OPEC countries and non-Middle East OPEC countries since 1983, which when taken together, are expected to add 8 million BOPD new capacity as soon as 1995. These discoveries have taken place in both existing and evolving exploration hotspots that are expected to receive increasing industry emphasis in the 1990s

  15. China Likely to Resume Oil Futures Soon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang Tianle

    2002-01-01

    @@ China is likely to resume operation of its oil futures this year, according to reports from the media about a futures conference organized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in late May. "As China has become an important oil producer and consumer,the demand for our own oil futures market emerges,which will help China oil-related enterprises hedge risks," said Li Ruisheng, vice president of PetroChina's refining and marketing company.

  16. Seychelles: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the small island group that was host to the first Indian Ocean Regional Seminar on Petroleum Exploration in mid-December. Efforts are under way to set up a regional system for cooperation in petroleum between countries in the region that hope to become oil producers. Offshore permits are held by Enterprise Oil and recently by Texaco. Ultamar Exploration Ltd. signed an eight-year offshore exploration contract becoming only the fourth company to attempt exploration off the archipelago

  17. Panama: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that Texaco signed a contract to explore 1.1 million acres in Blocks 1 and 2, on and offshore the northwestern coast. The firm has not revealed any plans beyond conducting a preliminary analysis. No drilling was reported last year. Switzerland-based Idria Oil and Gas, which drilled and abandoned three offshore wells with oil and gas shows in 1989, the it has no plans for 1991. However, the firm the it may drill three wells in 1992

  18. USSR: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hovring, M.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that due to its lack of technology, the Soviet Union will have to double the number of wells it drills in the next five years in order to maintain today's oil output. It has been estimated that more than 11,000 new wells will have to be drilled in 1992 because of the declines in reserves and productivity per well. The only problem with this is that the USSR does not have the required funds at present. The Soviet Government has agreed to a 25-billion-rouble ($46 billion) cash injection for the oil industry to halt declining production. The USSR will need to find major new deposits to develop. There is oil in the exceptionally difficult geological conditions in Soviet central Asia and northern Siberia. However, the oil is located in hundreds of small fields. The only solution is to let international oil companies take part in development of production of these fields in order to raise the standard of technology employed

  19. The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Lardelli, Michael; Snowden, Simon; Soederbergh, Bengt

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the 'policy makers, investors and end users' to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

  20. Guatemala: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that government officials have been working on changes to the hydrocarbon law to make it easier for operators to explore. In a reform effort, Minister of Energy and Mines Carlos Hutarte brought a new staff dedicated to spurring oil development into office with him. This includes the Directorate of Hydrocarbons, which held a three-day seminar in Dallas, Texas, to acquaint U.S. firms with new policies. Only one company, Basic Resources International, has been operating in Guatemala over the last year. The firm drilled three onshore wells in 1990 for 16,499 ft, including one oil producer. Two further onshore wells are slated this year. Oil production from 14 active wells out of 16 capable averaged 3,943 bpd, up 8.4% from 1989. Reserves are 191 MMbbl

  1. Malaysia: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khin, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Malaysian government announced tax incentives for fiscal year 1991/92 by cutting export duties on crude oil to encourage companies to develop more oil fields. The export duty exemption on cost recovery oil was increased from the current 20% to 50% on April 1, 1991. Nearly 115,200 sq mi of shallow-water acreage off Malaysia has been awarded to PS contractors, leaving only about five blocks remaining. Therefore, Petronas plans to award deeper water blocks (water depths of 655 ft or more) in the second half of this year, once terms are finalized. It is understood that these areas will be offshore of Sarawak and Sabah, covering in excess of 38,000 sq mi. Petronas the that there would be some improvement in the PSC terms for the deep-water areas

  2. Tunisia: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on more attractive E and P terms, and the Abiod Chalk oil play which means busier exploration in Tunisia. E and P agreement terms and conditions have been liberalized in the face of declining oil and gas production, thus encouraging development of smaller, previously marginal prospects. Ownership and acreage changes may have significant impact in the next few years as Texaco, under a farm-in, has acquired 60% and operatorship of Conquest Exploration's El Jem onshore block and Samedan acquired large acreage interests from Royal Dutch Shell

  3. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world`s major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  4. Angola: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that prospects of Angola, free of political complications, are certain to bring a flurry of interest from oil firms and could mean an influx of foreign capital. Licensing will be under production-sharing terms, but incentives may be offered due to increased risks inherent in deeper water. Long term security and stability remain uncertain. In addition to Unita and previously communist MPLA, new factions from 16 years of civil war are gaining support and increasing possibilities for violence. Oil firms consider production-sharing terms high and current price cap clauses keep them from realizing benefits from price increases after contracts are signed. However, geology and exploration successes have overshadowed concerns

  5. Brazil: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that Brazil's state oil company Petrobras has racked up a significant period of achievement over the last 12 months. Average daily oil production hit a new high. A small portion of deepwater giant Marlim field came onstream. Risk contracts ended, and the firm assumed all responsibility for exploration activity in Brazil. Furthermore, Santos basin proved to be the nation's most recent oil province after two discoveries. Last, but not least, Petrobras assumed a dominant position worldwide in development of new deepwater technology, as evidenced by papers presented at the 1991 Offshore Technology Conference. What is remarkable is that all this was achieved while the company was experiencing political turmoil. Last Oct. 19, Petrobras President Luis Octavio Motta Veiga resigned in a dispute with the Ministry of Economy (MOE) over refined product pricing levels. His replacement, interestingly enough, was the 36-year-old executive secretary of the MOE, Eduardo de Freitas Teixeira. His term at Petrobras lasted less than six months

  6. Venezuela: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on Venezuela's expansion by state oil company PDVSA has gone from a mere concept a year ago to a well-defined plan. The five-year project that began this year and runs through 1995 received a $4-billion upgrading last fall to $25 billion. Money will be spent in increments of $5 billion/year, and all sectors are involved. Largest share, about $10.5 billion, will go to upstream projects, with $6 billion to be invested in refining, $6 billion in petrochemicals, $1.5 billion in coal and $800 million in domestic marketing. PDVSA intends to finance most of the spending directly from its cash flow. The upstream spending will go toward boosting oil production to more than 3.6 MMbpd by the beginning of 1996, with capacity topping at 4.2 MMbopd. Such heavy spending should prove a boon to the Venezuelan economy. The oil industry constitutes 23% of Venezuela's GNP, accounts for 75% of governmental revenues and produces 70% of the nation's annual foreign exchange earnings. The Ministry of Planning already is forecasting a 7% leap in real growth of the GNP this year

  7. Oil and Gas in the Arab world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The state of oil and gas production in each of twelve Arab states in 1996 is reviewed. A table of proved oil reserves and production in these countries as at the end of 1995 is provided. For Arab oil producers, 1996 was a good year in price terms. Crude oil was selling at an average of $3 a barrel more than in 1995. Factors contributing to prices rises were the increase in demand accompanying global economic growth, especially in the developing economies of Asia, which was not matched by supply growth, and the news that Iraq is unlikely to return to international markets in the near future. (UK)

  8. Bahrain: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on Harken Energy Corp., which holds a production sharing contract on most of Bahrain's offshore area with Bahrain National Oil co. (Banoco), which plans to spud its first Permian Khuff wildcat this October on Fasht Al Jarim reef off the northwestern tip of the island Sheikdom. The location, in very shallow water, will be on an artificial island which will support a land rig. Bass Enterprise Production Co. of Ft. Worth, Texas, has farmed into the Harken project. Bass will finance seismic work and the three wells Harken is committed to drill under its contract

  9. Peru: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on strong measures that are being taken to resuscitate Peru's hydrocarbon sector. The first step last August was the cutting of fuel subsidies in half. Then the administration issued tax vouchers to state utilities for the money they still owed national oil company Petroperu. A precursor to what are expected to be widespread changes to the existing petroleum legislation occurred last fall. As part of a package of fiscal reforms, the official base rate that the government paid Occidental Petroleum to produce crude for Petroperu was dropped. A new, free market rate was adopted, which was six times the old base rate

  10. Honduras: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that after a lull last year, the Director General of Mines and Hydrocarbons the drilling is expected to resume this year with two onshore tests. Presumably, one of these will be a wildcat by Venezuela's Cambria Resources in the jungle area of the Mosquitia province along the Caribbean coast. Cambria Resources took over the Brus Laguna concession in this area from Bonavista Oil and Mining Corp. and finished a 348-mi seismic survey in 1989. Venezuela's PDVSA subsidiary, Maraven, also signed a deal in April to explore offshore this same area

  11. World oil supply and demand'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed

  12. World energy: Building a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schipper, L.; Meyers, S.

    1992-04-01

    As the 20th century draws to a close, both individual countries and the world community face challenging problems related to the supply and use energy. These include local and regional environmental impacts, the prospect of global climate and sea level change associated with the greenhouse effect, and threats to international relations in connection with oil supply or nuclear proliferation. For developing countries, the financial cost of providing energy to provide basic needs and fuel economic development pose an additional burden. To assess the magnitude of future problems and the potential effectiveness of response strategies, it is important to understand how and why energy use has changed in the post and where it is heading. This requires study of the activities for which energy is used, and of how people and technology interact to provide the energy services that are desired. The authors and their colleagues have analyzed trends in energy use by sector for most of the world's major energy-consuming countries. The approach we use considers three key elements in each sector: the level of activity, structural change, and energy intensity, which expresses the amount of energy used for various activities. At a disaggregated level, energy intensity is indicative of energy efficiency. But other factors besides technical efficiency also shape intensity.

  13. Mexico: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maciej, H.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that state oil company Pemex appears to be in the middle of a mini-renaissance. Senior management proudly points to several areas of improvement, including a major reduction in the power of petroleum labor unions; a structural reorganization of the company into profit and cost centers; a significant trimming of foreign and domestic debt; and the growing readmittance of foreign investment and technology. Effects of these policy successes already are quantifiable and impressive. Restricting the unions' power has allowed Pemex to break the old habit of employing too many people and paying them too much. Indeed, the workforce has shrunk 30% to just below 150,000. Under the guidance of Finance Director Ernesto Marcos, Pemex has whittled its foreign debt to $5.6 billion from a 1982 high of $20 billion. Furthermore, the extra income provided by higher oil prices during the Persian Gulf war allowed Pemex in December to completely pay off its domestic debt, which has been nearly 2.5 trillion pesos (about $850 million) in the first quarter of 1990

  14. Oil and the world energy crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Almost half of the needs for primary in the world are covered by oil. The rapid growth in oil prices because of the 1973 oil crisis caused a growth in prices for other source of energy as well, primarily coal and natural gas. The sale price of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in 1973 equalled--$18.87, and later $31.45. In recent years, the cost of 1 m/sup 3/ of oil reached $188.69, and by the end of the century, according to forecasts, should reach $628.98. The cost of extracting 1 m/sup 3/ of oil in the Near East equals $1.57, and in the North Sea $44.03-75.48. The cost of producing 1 m/sup 3/ of synthetic oil from bitumenous sands equals $94.35-157.25, and from fuel shales $94.35-122.14. The explored oil reserves at the end of 1979 were, in million T: in the OPEC countries 58, 265, including 22, 261 in Saudi Arabia, and 25, 539 in the rest of the world. Oil extraction in 1979 was, in million T: in the OPEC countries 1574 (100%), including 510 (32.4%) in Saudi Arabia, 175 ((11.1%) in Iraq, 145 (9.2%) in Iran, 130 (8.2%) in Kuwait, 125 (7.9%) in Venezuela, 114 (7.2%) in Nigeria, 101 (6.4%) in Libya, 88 (5.6%) in the United Arab Emirates, other OPEC countries 186 (11.8%), in the other countries of the world 1550 (100%), including the United States 479 (30.9%), 108 (7.0%) in The Chinese People's Republic, 86 (5.5%) in Canada, 80 (5.2%) in Mexico, 79 (5.1%) in Great Britain, 28 (1.8%) in Arab Republic of Egypt, 18 (1.2%) in Norway, and 86 (5.5%) in other countries.

  15. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ante Nosić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

  16. Oilseeds and vegetable oils in asia: a world of diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mittaine Jean-François

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Out of the two dozen countries that constitute what is generally called “Asia”, some are the largest in the world while others are islands with smaller populations. When looking at oilseeds and vegetable oils in the region, one is faced with the same huge diversity which makes it complex to analyze, all the more that statistics are not easily available for many countries. Aside from the large differences in size, the region covers a wide spectrum of diversified climate environments. Asia is also mainly characterized by its huge population which has become largely urban, a key factor leading to the impressive growth of vegetable oil demand in the past 30 years. At an verage of 23.2 kg/year, Asian per capita consumption of oils and fats still remains slightly below the world average of 28.3 kg/capita/year. Therefore, although 53% of the world population is located in Asia, only 45% of world oils and fats is consumed in the region. As detailed in the paper, the world of Asian oilseeds and vegetable oils is highly concentrated on soybeans and palm oil. In spite of a large domestic production in China (12.3 MnT, soybeans are imported in huge quantities, mostly by China (78 MnT, 84% of the region’s imports where more than 28% of world soybeans production is being crushed. Palm oil, the second large commodity consumed in the region, is mainly produced within the region, mostly in Indonesia and Malaysia. So where is the “world of diversity”? Hidden behind those two dominant commodities, practically all of the ten oilseeds constituting the core of the world production are grown in significant quantities in the region while, for vegetable oils, all those of significant importance are produced within the region with the exception of olive oil. The main question that should be kept in mind when reviewing this large regional demand is under what condition will future vegetable oil production be able to meet the expected rise of per capita oils and

  17. Oman: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that for the sixth consecutive year, Oman should retain its title as the biggest driller in the Middle East in 1991. An accelerated program in 1990 pushed production to an all-time record 700,000 bpd late in the year. Although not a member of Opec, Oman has cooperated with the group in restraining output as needed to support oil prices. Petroleum Development Oman (PDO), a partnership of the government (60%), Royal Dutch Shell (34%), Total (4%) and Partex (2%), remains by far the biggest producer. This year, PDO will begin work on its $500-million effort to boost production from its Lekhwair field from a current 24,000 bpd to 110,000 bpd by 1994. Last year, PDO also drilled 15 horizontal wells, most of which were successful in increasing per well production compared to conventional vertical holes. The horizontal program has been continued this year with two rings

  18. World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

  19. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  20. The hydrocarbon era, world population growth and oil use -- a continuing geological challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townes, H.L.

    1993-01-01

    The world's use of oil, the relationship of world population growth to this use, and what the energy situation might be in the future is a challenge to the geologist. The earth's population doubled between 1930 and 1975 and a comparison of world petroleum use and population growth show similar upward curves. Of the annual fossil fuel resources used in the world, crude oil supplies over 40 percent of the total resources. Petroleum is a finite resource and a projection of world oil production indicates it will peak early in the 21st century. Assuming an ultimate recovery range of 2600 to 3000 billion barrels of oil, 750 billion barrels have already been produced, there are 1000 billion barrels in proven reserves, and 1000 billion barrels remaining to be discovered. The challenge to the geologist will be to find these hidden oil reserves. Recovering this 1000 billion barrels of new oil reserves will require large capital expenditures and, currently, only 60 percent of the capital needed to discover this oil is being spent. With the world's demand for oil increasing, world-wide exploration expenditures are actually decreasing. Simple economics indicates that the reason for this drop in expenditures is that the price of oil is too low to encourage investment. Low oil prices also discourage investment in the development of alternative fuels. There is plenty of oil now, but the world must look to the future and realize present usage rate cannot continue forever. 23 refs., 10 figs

  1. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  2. Oil and gas financing by the World Bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razavi, Hossein

    1995-01-01

    The World Bank has developed a flexible oil and gas programme that is structured to meet the changing needs of the sector as they arise. The Bank became prominent in the oil and gas sector after the oil crises of the 1970s, when it began assisting client countries in developing their indigenous energy resources. At the beginning, Bank lending concentrated on exploration and development of hydrocarbon resources where the level of lending expanded to US$1 billion in 1983. This rapid expansion caused some concern that Bank activities might preempt those of the private sector. In response, the Bank imposed in 1984 strict limitations on petroleum exploration and oil production lending. In combination with the perception that future oil demand would be weak, this caused the lending programme to fall off sharply (to US$300 million by 1986). By 1990, the Bank was again moving actively into hydrocarbon sector lending, but then the emphasis was on promoting private sector development and supporting the development of natural gas as a substitute for coal and oil. Bank lending to the sector has been on the increase since 1990; a lending level of about US$1 billion yearly is expected for the second half of the 1990s. In addition to its direct lending, the World Bank facilitates contributions by other financiers through its cofinancing and risk mitigation arrangements. (author)

  3. Peak Oil, threat or energy worlds' phantasm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Favennec, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The concept of Peak Oil is based on the work of King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist who worked for Shell in the USA in the 1960's. Based on the fact that discoveries in America reached a maximum in the 1930's, he announced that American production would reach a maximum in 1969, which did actually occur. Geologists members of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil have extrapolated this result to a worldwide scale and, since oil discoveries reached a peak in the 1960's, argued that production will peak in the very near future. It is clear that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and therefore exhaustible. But little is known regarding the level of ultimate (i.e. total existing) reserves. There are probably very large reserves of non conventional oil in addition to the reserves of conventional oil. An increasing number of specialists put maximum production at less than 100 Mb/d more for geopolitical than physical reasons. Attainable peak production will probably vary from year to year and will depend on how crude oil prices develop

  4. Macro factors in oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macro-economic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor approximate model to extract 9 factors from this dataset. We then regress crude oil return on several combinations of these factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor which has the largest influence on crude oil price is related to real variables from emerging countries. This result confirms the latest finding in the literature that the recent evolution in oil price is attributable to change in supply and demand conditions and not to the large increase in trading activity from speculators. (authors)

  5. Oil Prophets: Looking at World Oil Studies Over Time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Steve [Denver, CO (United States); Udall, Randy [Carbondale, CO (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Early reports of world oil assessments date back to the 1940s. In the intervening 60 years, the number of studies projecting Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil reached well over 50. A detailed search would undoubtedly lengthen the list that will be provided with this paper. How have their estimates fared? Given general agreement that we haven't yet reached the halfway point in eventual production, it's too early to offer definitive assessments. However, several factors stand out: The learning curve. It took over a decade of effort for projections to emerge that are in line with lower-end projections of more recent studies. The learning curve has flattened. For those individuals and groups who conducted multiple studies, their subsequent EUR numbers generally trend higher. The analyses lack a common definitional framework. Beyond crude oil, what liquids are included? Heavy oil and tar sands? Some or all gas liquids? Polar and deepwater oil? While the ability to locate, evaluate and extract oil in the field has drastically improved over time, analysts continue to be hampered by a lack of access to definitive data plus disagreements about assessment methodologies. Striving to determine how many petroleum liquids we have left is a useful exercise, but primarily as a means to help determine when daily worldwide production is likely to peak. To that end, a key point is that 'not all liquids resources are created equal'; many of the larger new fields are located in harsh and remote regions, in politically unstable environments, or require large energy inputs during extraction. Production rates and costs will vary dramatically. Since demand is somewhat fickle, identifying a year or range of years when liquids production will peak qualifies as part art, part science. That said, the paper will list estimates by 'oil prophets' as to when they project that petroleum liquids production will peak. The estimates range from 1995 to 2025. How have their estimates fared

  6. Oil Prophets: Looking at World Oil Studies Over Time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Steve [Denver, CO (United States); Udall, Randy [Carbondale, CO (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Early reports of world oil assessments date back to the 1940s. In the intervening 60 years, the number of studies projecting Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) oil reached well over 50. A detailed search would undoubtedly lengthen the list that will be provided with this paper. How have their estimates fared? Given general agreement that we haven't yet reached the halfway point in eventual production, it's too early to offer definitive assessments. However, several factors stand out: The learning curve. It took over a decade of effort for projections to emerge that are in line with lower-end projections of more recent studies. The learning curve has flattened. For those individuals and groups who conducted multiple studies, their subsequent EUR numbers generally trend higher. The analyses lack a common definitional framework. Beyond crude oil, what liquids are included? Heavy oil and tar sands? Some or all gas liquids? Polar and deepwater oil? While the ability to locate, evaluate and extract oil in the field has drastically improved over time, analysts continue to be hampered by a lack of access to definitive data plus disagreements about assessment methodologies. Striving to determine how many petroleum liquids we have left is a useful exercise, but primarily as a means to help determine when daily worldwide production is likely to peak. To that end, a key point is that 'not all liquids resources are created equal'; many of the larger new fields are located in harsh and remote regions, in politically unstable environments, or require large energy inputs during extraction. Production rates and costs will vary dramatically. Since demand is somewhat fickle, identifying a year or range of years when liquids production will peak qualifies as part art, part science. That said, the paper will list estimates by 'oil prophets' as to when they project that petroleum liquids production will peak. The estimates range from 1995 to 2025. How

  7. Russian oil prices: courting the world market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  8. Future directions conventional oil supply, Western Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, G.R.; Hayward, J.

    1997-01-01

    The history of the Canadian oil industry was briefly sketched and the future outlook for crude oil and natural gas liquids in western Canada was forecast. The historical review encompassed some of the significant events in history of the Canadian oil industry, including the Leduc discovery in 1947, the Swan Hills discovery in 1957, the start of commercial production from the Athabasca oil sands in 1967, the discovery of the Hibernia oilfield offshore Newfoundland in 1979, and the onset of the use of horizontal production wells in western Canada in 1987. The resource base, supply costs, and the technology that is being developed to reduce costs and to improve recovery, were reviewed. Future oil prices were predicted, taking into account the costs associated with technological developments. It was suggested that the character of the industry is undergoing a change from an industry dominated by conventional supply to a mixed industry with increasing volume of heavy oil, primary bitumen, synthetic oil and frontier supply replacing 'conventional' light crude oil. Projections into the future are subject to uncertainty both on the supply as well as on the demand side. The potential impact of technology can significantly affect demand, and technological developments can yield additional supplies which exceed current expectations. 10 figs

  9. World energy: the facts and the future. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, Don.

    1986-01-01

    The world energy situation is examined. Since the first edition of the book was written, the 1979 oil price rise has added weight to the argument that the economics of the second half of the twentieth century have been dominated by the economics of the barrel of oil. This book looks at the major fuels available - coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear energy and electricity. Each is considered in turn, looking at the reserves, costs, demand and the prospects for the future. Questions about the fuels discussed in the book include: how far will the price of oil fall, can nuclear power ever gain full public acceptance, can conservation be the 'fifth fuel', when will the development of synthetic fuels and renewable energy sources regain momentum. The energy supply and demand throughout the world is then presented taking each country, or group of countries in turn and considering each fuel. The future is then considered -prospects for synthetic fuels, renewable energy sources, eg wind and solar power and nuclear fusion. 115 tables present the data on which the book is based and its conclusions drawn. (UK)

  10. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  11. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  12. Hydropower and the world's energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-11-01

    The potential role of hydropower in the context of world-wide demographic growth and increasing demand for energy, and the benefits inherent in hydroelectric power in comparison with other energy options are discussed. Environmental and social impacts, and examples of mitigation measures are reviewed. Recommendations regarding best practices in the future development of hydroelectric power projects proposed

  13. The World Oil Market: The Search for Balance in the New “Oil” Reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatjiana A. Malova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of change of the world oil market in the face of new "oil" reality. Factors of formation of new "oil" reality in the global world defined. Scientific background and current state of research of the problem are described. It is shownthat in the Russian and foreign literature the considerable attention is paid to the analysis of dynamics of the quantitative variables characterizing fluctuations and shocks in the oil market. At the same time the search for balance in the new "oil" reality are not considerably investigated yet. The proposed approach allows toreveal the substance of the transformation of the world oil market, to assess the changes in the oil market with the development of rhenium in terms of efficiency and functioning of the mechanism, the prospects of price volatility in the oil market. The main directions of transformation of the oil market are follows. Development of a subject basis of the oil market due to changes of a role of the main market players whose structure includes the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia now. The impact of regulatory factors complex in the oil market towards equilibrium, which include activity of OPEC, supply of shale oil, future market,activity of the uniform regulator and national regulators. Transformation of the oil market in the direction of perfection of the competitive relations, achievement of optimum market balance as a result of coordination and interaction of interests of participants of the global oil market.

  14. Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

  15. The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soleille, S.

    2004-01-01

    The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

  16. Oil crisis and the emerging world order

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baumgartner, T. (Univ. of Quebec, Montreal); Burns, T.R.; Deville, P.

    1977-08-01

    The paper outlines a conceptual framework for understanding and analyzing the structuring of an institutional order. Particular attention is given to developments that make institution restructuring likely--for instance power shifts which favor actors with a different vision or model of an appropriate institutional order. The framework is applied in a brief historical study of the development of post-World War II international economic institutions and current developments associated with the ''oil crisis.'' This conceptual framework and historical investigation provides a basis on which to formulate propositions, indicating potential sources of conflict and cooperating and certain ambiguities and dynamics of current institution restructuring in the international system. The paper concludes by outlining several action guidelines for structuring new global cultural forces and institutional forms related to bringing about a New International Economic Order. 43 references.

  17. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  18. Oil, Security, and the Post-9/11 World

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hermsmeyer, Gregory

    2002-01-01

    The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks did not directly threaten world oil supplies, but they exposed the long-term danger of relying on an energy source found chiefly in one of the world's most explosive regions...

  19. Proceedings of the CERI 2001 World Oil Conference. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 23 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference was divided into 8 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, (2) oil and politics, (3) global oil supply, (4) North American supply and markets, (5) global oil demand, (6) oil.com, (7) the business of the environment, and (8) oil and money. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. The current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential. The environmental, and socio-economic challenges that both the upstream and downstream industry will face challenges in the next century were also described. refs., tabs., figs

  20. The term structure of oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabillon, J.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

  1. Reference data on world oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

  2. Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schipper, L.

    2002-01-01

    The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

  3. How a future energy world could look?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewert M.

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  4. How a future energy world could look?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, M.

    2012-10-01

    The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

  5. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

    2017-01-01

    Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

  6. The future of oil and hydrocarbon man

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, Colin

    1999-01-01

    Man appeared on the planet about four million years ago, and by 1850 numbered about one billion Ten came Hydrocarbon man. World population has since increased six-fold. After the oil price shocks of the 1970s, people asked "when will production peak?". It is not easy to answer this question because of the very poor database. Reserves and the many different hydrocarbon categories are poorly defined, reporting practices are ambiguous, revisions are not backdated...

  7. Dynamics of world oil crops market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knežević Marija

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

  8. State of the art in oil market in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, F. E.

    2007-01-01

    Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

  9. Future of Energy in Egypt and the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Nokraschy

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available If the whole world, which Egypt is a part of, continues business as usual in the field of electricitygeneration, namely, using the same regimes adopts today, burning fossil fuels and Uranium fission,both fuels will run out within sixty years at most and the world will definitely return to the Stone Age.Shall this be the end of the Egyptian people … the history makers?Generating energy is the next necessity to human life after water and food, since it is the majorstimulus of development. However, what is the aim of development if it is only momentary; thenfollowed by an endless abyss?Shall we wait till fossil and nuclear fuels run out? Jostling over the remaining fuel will certainly befierce and we will pay a high price for it, a matter that will subsequently lead to demolishing theingredients of development.Considering that oil is now dominating our way of life, it shall be wise to start immediately planning forthe post-oil age, provided that it is a sustainable plan set up to continue its validity as long as humanslive on this planet; this cannot be achieved except if we shift to renewable energies.Looking at Egypt and its available renewable energy sources, it becomes evident that the solarenergy, particularly in Upper Egypt, can give more than the present and future needs of the Egyptiansociety and even cover the demand of the whole world for electricity.

  10. Reserve growth of the world's giant oil fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    Analysis of estimated total recoverable oil volume (field size) of 186 well-known giant oil fields of the world (>0.5 billion bbl of oil, discovered prior to 1981), exclusive of the United States and Canada, demonstrates general increases in field sizes through time. Field sizes were analyzed as a group and within subgroups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. From 1981 through 1996, the estimated volume of oil in the 186 fields for which adequate data were available increased from 617 billion to 777 billion bbl of oil (26%). Processes other than new field discoveries added an estimated 160 billion bbl of oil to known reserves in this subset of the world's oil fields. Although methods for estimating field sizes vary among countries, estimated sizes of the giant oil fields of the world increased, probably for many of the same reasons that estimated sizes of oil fields in the United States increased over the same time period. Estimated volumes in OPEC fields increased from a total of 550 billion to 668 billion bbl of oil and volumes in non-OPEC fields increased from 67 billion to 109 billion bbl of oil. In terms of percent change, non-OPEC field sizes increased more than OPEC field sizes (63% versus 22%). The changes in estimated total recoverable oil volumes that occurred within three 5-year increments between 1981 and 1996 were all positive. Between 1981 and 1986, the increase in estimated total recoverable oil volume within the 186 giant oil fields was 11 billion bbl of oil; between 1986 and 1991, the increase was 120 billion bbl of oil; and between 1991 and 1996, the increase was 29 billion bbl of oil. Fields in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries followed trends of substantial reserve growth.

  11. China: a black hole for future oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cragg, Chris.

    1997-01-01

    Whenever two or three oil price forecasters are gathered together, the conversation generally gets round to the position of China. For China holds a great many of the keys to the future structure of global oil demand. Its astonishing rates of growth projected forward suggest a rapid transition towards high import dependency in the early years of the next century. After all, if the Chinese had the same passion for per capita oil consumption as people in the UK, they would use 22 million barrels a day (mbd), not the 3 mbd they currently consume. Yet to the puzzlement of many, China never quite behaves the way its exponential flight path suggests it will. (author)

  12. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

  13. Dominant Middle East oil reserves critically important to world supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riva, J.P. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the location production, and transportation of the 60 million bbl of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to relations between nations, as well as to their economic wellbeing. Oil has frequently been a decisive factor in the determination of foreign policy. The war in the Persian Gulf, while a dramatic example of the critical importance of oil, is just the latest of a long line of oil-influenced diplomatic/military incidents, which may be expected to continue. Assuming that the world's remaining oil was evenly distributed and demand did not grow, if exploration and development proceeded as efficiently as they have in the U.S., world oil production could be sustained at around current levels to about the middle of the next century. It then would begin a long decline in response to a depleting resource base. However, the world's remaining oil is very unevenly distributed. It is located primarily in the Eastern Hemisphere, mostly in the Persian Gulf, and much is controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Scientific resource assessments indicate that about half of the world's remaining conventionally recoverable crude oil resource occurs in the Persian Gulf area. In terms of proved reserves (known recoverable oil), the Persian Gulf portion increase to almost two-thirds

  14. Present status on world alternative energy developments to oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddington, J.

    1980-01-01

    The IEA was established about five years ago in the OECD immediately after the oil crisis, and 20 countries have participated in it. Progress was observed in the control of the expansion of energy demand. The energy utilization in IEA member countries became efficient due to the contribution of new technologies, and owing to the improvement of productivity, the growth of energy consumption was less than 1% despite the GDP grew at the yearly rate of 2.5%. The expansion of the utilization of natural gas and coal is promising, but the projects of nuclear power generation are behind schedule. The short term prospect in petroleum market is discussed, and the price of crude oil tends to be stabilized. ''The prospect of energy in the world by 2000'' will be published by the IEA in the latter half of 1980. The scale of the development of nuclear power generation was reduced because the prediction of the rate of power generation growth was changed from 5.2% to 3.1%. The effect of new energy technologies on future energy market has been studied by the support of 15 countries, and it was recommended to give financial aid to heat pumps, coal liquefaction and the efficient recovery of oil and natural gas. Also the techniques for operating existing facilities under strict environment and safety regulations have been studied. (Kako, I.)

  15. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  16. Changing patterns in world oil supplies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khane, A R; Bischoff, G

    1979-03-01

    The aim of the oil countries to industrialize in as short a period as possible is discussed in a dialogue with Dr. Khane. The topics of the oil price rises, the price rises for industrial plant, worldwide unemployment, the standard of living and the excess capacities in industrial countries are also discussed.

  17. THE WORLD OIL MARKET – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru AnaMaria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available For some countries the oil is the main source of income, while for others it represents the main raw material for energetic needs. Thus, the oil price has major influence on their economies and it is important for them that it stabilizes at a level profit

  18. A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, Hamed G.

    2016-01-01

    Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run. - Highlights: • Variables and loops affecting oil production are formulated mathematically. • Shares of conventional and unconventional oil in the global oil market is analyzed. • Oil production rate under different oil price scenarios up to 2025 is simulated. • Unconventional oil would obtain a considerable share in market in the short-term. • A late peak for the conventional oil resources would occur.

  19. Oil and gas activities of the world bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossein, R.

    1993-01-01

    The oil crisis of the 1970s profoundly challenged the economies of most developing countries. The crisis hit the the oil-importing countries severely, and many suffered deteriorating balances of payments and increasingly unmanageable import bills. It was in this context, in July 1977, that the World Bank's Executive Directors approved an expanded program of lending to assist the Bank's client countries in developing their own energy resources. In 1978, the Bonn Summit and the Secretary General of the United Nations endorsed the initiation of new approaches in the energy sector by the World Bank, particularly in financing oil exploration in countries that were significant oil importers. The new initiative led to a rapid expansion of the World Bank's lending for oil and gas projects, which reached about $1 billion in 1983

  20. The social costs to the US of monopolization of the world oil market, 1972--1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Leiby, P.N.

    1993-03-01

    The partial monopolization of the world oil market by the OPEC cartel has produced significant economic costs to the economies of the world. This paper reports estimates of the costs of monopolization of oil to the US over the period 1972--1991. Two fundamental assumptions of the analysis are, (1) that OPEC has acted as a monopoly, albeit with limited control, knowledge, and ability to act and, (2) that the US and other consuming nations could, through collective (social) action affect the cartel's ability to act as a monopoly. We measure total costs by comparing actual costs for the 1972--1991 period to a hypothetical ''more competitive'' world oil market scenario. By measuring past costs we avoid the enormous uncertainties about the future course of the world oil market and leave to the reader's judgment the issue of how much the future will be like the past. We note that total cost numbers cannot be used to determine the value of reducing US oil use by one barrel. They are useful for describing the overall size of the petroleum problem and are one important factor in deciding how much effort should be devoted to solving it. Monopoly pricing of oil transfers wealth from US oil consumers to foreign oil producers and, by increasing theeconomic scarcity of oil, reduces the economy's potential to produce. The actions of the OPEC cartel have also produced oil price shocks, both upward and downward, that generate additional costs because of the economy's inherent inability to adjust quickly to a large change in energy prices. Estimated total costs to the United States from these three sources for the 1972--1991 period are put at $4.1 trillion in 1990$($1.2 T wealth transfer, $0.8 T macroeconomic adjustment costs, $2.1 T potential GNP losses). The cost of the US's primary oil supply contingency program is small ($10 B) by comparison

  1. World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Sari, Ramazan; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Hacihasanoglu, Erk

    2009-01-01

    We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.

  2. The instability of world oil market and its impact on economic development: Indonesia's experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patmosukismo, S.

    1991-01-01

    The world oil market has been characterized by fluctuating prices which have a direct impact on the world economy. If the world oil price rises in real terms, upstream activities become more attractive to producers, and if the price declines, downstream opportunities become more attractive. The world oil market is currently determined not only by producers and consumers, but also by the futures trade. In addition, the elasticity of oil prices has increased since the 1970s through competition among producers and competition from other energy sources. The Asia Pacific countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are thus heavily dependent on oil, but generally have small reserves. Their reserves/production ratio is ca 20 years, with a major share coming from China and Indonesia. The current situation of tight and inadequate supply may increase the region's dependence on Middle East sources. The effects of the three recent major oil crises on the Asia Pacific countries are reviewed and the role of oil and gas in Indonesia's economic development is described. Export earnings from oil and gas represent a major share of total Indonesian export revenues, and taxes and receipts from oil companies continue to be the largest receipts in Indonesian government revenues. Slow changes in the primary fuel mix and high growth in domestic consumption may turn Indonesia into a net oil importer before the year 2000. A major effort to decrease domestic oil consumption has been implemented by using natural gas and coal in the power generation sector. On the supply side, recoverable oil and gas reserves of 50 billion bbl and 200 trillion ft 3 respectively may be present but their development depends on the investment scheme of the continuing exploration program

  3. Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xing

    2009-01-01

    Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

  4. Trinidad and Tobago: World Oil Report 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that Trinidad and Tobago has decided to increase its oil export revenue by pumping as much crude as possible. This island nation consequently has embarked on a $403-million expansion project that covers everything from initiating secondary recovery at a number of fields to upgrading the Point a Pierre refinery. Trinidad and Tobago Oil Co. (Trintoc) is operating the project and has received a $260-million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank. Another $75 million is coming from the Export-Import Bank of Japan and the European Investment Bank. Trintoc based the work on $22 oil, a level still not achieved for any duration, but the firm shows every sign of finishing the project as planned. Completion of work should impact the nation significantly. Crude oil and products account for 60% of all exports and 24% of governmental revenue. However, oil production has tumbled about 65,000 bpd from a 1978 peak of 215,000 bpd

  5. Status of Oil and Natural Gas in the World and Turkey, and Studies conducted at ITU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onur, Mustafa

    2006-01-01

    Energy and its appropriate deployment are the most critical of all wealth generating activities, and they are the most important modern indicators of the wealth and poverty of nations. Humankind and energy will merge in an unbreakable bond for the entire future of humankind. Without dispute, the petroleum and natural gas industry is the world's largest energy sector and the second largest of the world's industries. Today, oil and gas account for 61 percent (39% oil and 24% natural gas) of the world's energy consumption. Including coal's 30 percent share, the hydrocarbon mix comprises more than 90 percent of the world's needs. Since the 19th century, the petroleum industry, including exploration, production, transportation (marine+pipeline), refinery, and marketing, have caused world changes, determined destiny of humankind, and generated immense wealth for both producers and users. It is also an accepted fact that the oil and natural gas will continue to be dominating energy sources, particularly as transportation fuels, for the world's energy needs, and will continue to cause world changes during the 21st century, at least for the next 25 years. Regarding Turkey's role in petroleum and natural gas, the figures are as follows: At the end of 2005, the proved oil and natural gas reserves of Turkey are reported as 1.2 million barrels (∼165.4 million tonnes) and 14.3 billion m 3 , respectively. When these figures are compared with the corresponding world's proved oil and natural gas reserves, which are 1.2 trillion barrels and 179.5 trillion m 3 , respectively, it is clear that Turkey's oil and natural gas reserves comprises only a very small portion of the world's corresponding reserves. Approximately only 8% and 3% of Turkey's oil and natural gas consumption are produced from domestic sources. At the end of 2005, Turkey's oil and natural gas productions from its domestic sources are 17 million barrels When considering the current high oil and natural gas prices (

  6. World resources of crude oil and natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D. (Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States))

    1991-01-01

    An abstract is given of a paper presented at the World Petroleum Congress 1991 on the world estimates of identified reserves and undiscovered resources for crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Data are presented for Canada, Mexico, USA, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, USSR, Africa, Middle East, Asia/Oceania and Antartica. (UK).

  7. A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maggio, G.; Cacciola, G.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1 Gb/year.

  8. Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, Ferenc L.; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between oil and nuclear energy in the global energy scene over the past 50 years is analysed. The former nuclear-oil product competition in power generation and various end-use markets is found to have transformed into a complementary relationship. Current concerns associated with both energy sources and related technologies, including price volatility, supply security, geopolitical sensitivity, depletion alarms, and environmental pollution issues for oil, economic performance, operational safety, proliferation, terrorism, radioactive waste disposal, and the resulting public acceptance for nuclear are examined as determinants of their future roles in the world energy balance. An assessment of the long-term prospects for oil and nuclear energy is presented at the scale of a century to support further economic and energy policy analyses. It is the first in-depth study of global energy projections based on a comparative examination of long-term socio-economic scenarios and their coordinated quantifications by a set of integrated energy-economy models

  9. An overview of world future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, F.P.

    1995-01-01

    The World Energy Council Commission's report Energy for Tomorrow's World was published in September 1993. The Commission's three year study of world energy problems involved both bottom-up studies, undertaken by groups of experts in nine main regions of the world, and top-down studies of global aspects. The latter included the preparation of energy demand and supply projections up to the study horizon of 2020, together with a brief look at prospects up to 2100. This Paper is based on the Commission's work. (author)

  10. An investment cycle in world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    The price of Persian Gulf petroleum emerged after World War II as the world price. Adjusted to 1990 price levels, it went from $22 in 1947 to a low of $3 in 1970, then a high of $56 in 1981, and a low of $15 in the first half of 1990. A cyclical model is often suggested to explain these extreme swings generated by the relation between market price and investment. 9 refs., 2 figs

  11. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  12. World oil and gas markets in 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

  13. Some comments on the future world energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemperiere, F.

    2011-06-01

    The key problem is the possibility to get mid century the energy necessary for the world development at acceptable cost and impacts with 70 or 80% of renewable energies (essentially solar, wind, hydro and biomass). In 2050 a population of 9 billion (7 in sunny countries) will have probably a gross product 3 or 4 times the present one with a reduced energy intensity; the need of energy may be the double of the present one. The Primary Energy is not an useful reference for most 2050 sources: for instance closing a thermal or nuclear plant supplying 1 TWh and generating 2 TWh more by wind, PV or hydraulics double the Final Energy when reducing the Primary Energy. Presently the Primary Energy is close to 150.000 TWh/year and the Final Energy utilisation to 100.000 TWh. But the present need of Final Energy is lower because many utilizations could use other sources reducing the relevant Final Energy: as examples using PV for cooking in Asia or Africa should divide by over 5 the relevant final energy and using electric cars could divide the Final Energy for transports by 3. The need of Final Energy in 2050 may thus be between 150.000 and 200.000 TWh/year. Anyway the final energy used from many sources will be limited, i.e. a total probably between 60 and 90.000 TWh/year, much under needs of 150.000 to 200.000 TWh/year. There is thus a great uncertainly but it is very likely that the gap will be mid century in the range of 100.000 TWh/year, to be met by coal, wind or solar, essentially through electricity. Electricity will be close to 100.000 TWh/year, with 20.000 from hydro, nuclear, oil and gas and the balance: 80.000 from coal, wind and solar. It is possible to get quite all from wind and solar under 4 conditions: - Coal resources could supply up to 50.000 TWh/year along most of the century at a direct cost lower (before 2040) than solar power by few cents per KWh (at least before 2030 or 2040), i.e. a saving which may be possibly 0,5 or 1% of the gross product. This

  14. Oil development in China: Current status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Linwei; Fu Feng; Li Zheng; Liu Pei

    2012-01-01

    The future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in China. This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China’s oil development through system analysis. First, we map a Sankey diagram of China’s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. Then, we present the historical and ongoing trends of China’s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand, oil resource availability, technology improvement, and policy adjustment. Based on these understandings, we design three scenarios of China’s oil demand in 2030, and analyze policy implications for oil saving, automotive energy development, and energy security. From the analysis, we draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis, and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► A Sankey Diagram to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. ► Present the ongoing trends of China’s oil development. ► Discuss important policy issues such as oil saving, energy security, and emissions reduction.

  15. The PTRC : a world leader in enhanced heavy oil recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristoff, B.; Knudsen, R.; Asghari, K. [Petroleum Technology Research Centre, Regina, SK (Canada); Pappas, E.S. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC) fosters knowledge and progressive technologies to enhance the recovery of petroleum. This paper discussed the PTRC's leadership in enhanced heavy oil recovery, with particular reference to core research program such as heavy oil (post) cold flow; enhanced waterflooding; miscible/immiscible solvent injection; and near-wellbore conformance control. Other projects that were presented included a joint implementation of vapour extraction project (JIVE); and the IEA greenhouse gas (GHG) Weyburn-Midale carbon dioxide monitoring and storage project. The JIVE project will develop, demonstrate and evaluate solvent vapour extraction processes for enhanced oil recovery in heavy oil reservoirs. The GHG Weyburn-Midale project, launched in 2000, studies carbon dioxide injection and storage in partially depleted oil reservoirs. It was concluded that the PTRC continues to develop technologies to meet the world's energy requirements while mitigating both immediate and long-term environmental impacts. 4 figs.

  16. Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwarkin, J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

  17. Proceedings of the world heavy oil congress 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    The World Heavy Oil Congress 2011 took place March 2011 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. This congress is an international gathering of heavy oil experts and professionals which takes place every 18 months to discuss issues and opportunities facing the heavy oil industry in terms of commercial, technical, regulatory and geo-political areas. Innovative solutions for improving performance, reducing costs and mitigating environmental impacts are presented. Hundreds of presentations were made, courses were delivered, and over 100 companies from 30 countries exhibited. The congress had support from various companies and government entities.This conference featured 133 papers, all of have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database.

  18. A Game Theory Analysis of the OPEC's Influence on World Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Most studies concerning OPEC's behavior were based on traditional market microstructure. However, the assumptions about oil market structure are either very rigorous or rather fuzzy. This paper demonstrates the rationality and necessity of OPEC's price band policy by using the game theory. We conclude that OPEC has the incentive to limit its price within a specific range if the game period is sufficiently long. This incentive comes either from preference for long-term interest or from future expectations. In such a way, OPEC tries its best to maximize its profit with the quotaprice dual policy and plays a price stabilizing role in the future world oil market.

  19. World energy. The facts and the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedley, D.

    1981-01-01

    This book examines how energy [including nuclear energy] is used in the world and how much energy is used; fuel resources - where they are, how long they will last, which countries have the fuel and which countries need it the most; the implications of the energy crisis for transport; the development of synthetics; the impact of conservation; the renewable energy sources and what progress is being made with them. The book forecasts how the world energy economy will have changed by the year 2000 and what is likely to happen beyond. (author)

  20. A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    for the concept of this model, the basic structure, fundamental equations. The remaining work is worth the next project to obtain final results from KEEIOF model. Delphi method, which forecasts the world crude oil price with the concept of political economy, carried by Center for Energy and Environmental policy (CEEP), showed an increasing crude oil price in the near future. (author). 22 figs., 12 tabs.

  1. Structural changes in the world energy supply - adaptations up to current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuermann, H.J.

    1985-03-11

    In this analysis of world energy markets in which he pays particular attention to mineral oil, and with a background of world economic problems which have not yet been solved, the author presents a piece of modern economic history in which he also highlights the political aspects of the supply of crude oil. The world-wide contraction in oil consumption which followed two price escalations, has been caused, it is held by structural factors and is therefore of a long-term nature. Of course, in the foreseeable future, oil will easily remain the most important energy-carrier. However, it will be of less importance for Western Europe and Japan than for North America, trading states and developing countries. Nevertheless, diversification should be encouraged as quickly as possible. This does include natural gas still but for the long-term also coal and atomic energy. The author pleads for world-wide trade relations based on coal and gas in order to complement the fully integrated world oil markets. Similarly atomic energy should be developed as quickly as possible.

  2. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  3. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  4. The oil world war; La guerre mondiale du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lafargue, F

    2008-07-01

    Since the beginning of the 21. century, a war has started between the USA, China and India. The USA, first oil consuming and importing country in the world, has now to take into account the increasing energy consumption of China and India. China is now, just behind Japan, the third oil importing country and India ranked number seven. From the Gulf of Guinea to the Arabic peninsula, from the Orenoque basin to the Caspian sea banks, Washington, Beijing and New Delhi covet the same oil fields. This rivalry exacerbates the political tensions in many regions of the Earth and already provokes a latent food crisis. This black gold war is changing the World's face and should provoke serious armed conflicts. (J.S.)

  5. World oil: the growing case for international policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, D.; Khanna, N.

    2000-01-01

    Can the economic theory of depletion be reconciled with low petroleum prices? This article uses a revision of the theory, which reflects demand functions that rise in response to increasing world population and income. The magnitude of producers' and consumers' surplus is estimated under both competitive and monopolistic assumptions; the result indicates a present value comparable to or in excess of today's gross world economic product. Game theory suggests a framework that explains the interaction between oil pricing and military policy, and the economic incentives that result in a general pattern of recent market equilibrium crude oil prices often fluctuating with a 15-20 US dollars per barrel range. The analysis concludes that the economic incentives for political instability in the Persian Gulf will increase, and more formal methods of setting the international framework for Persian Gulf oil may be expected. (author)

  6. The future for heavy crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, P.

    1995-01-01

    The expectation, still held in 1993, that the light oil-heavy crude oil differential would go on increasing in favour of light oil has not been fulfilled. Current perceptions are that heavy oil will continue to be relatively strong and there is no inevitable upward trend in light-heavy crude differentials. Non-OPEC production has grown significantly lighter overall in recent years and is likely to continue so for several more years. This is due to expanded light oil production in the North Sea, Latin America and the Far East, and contractions in heavy oil production in Russia and the USA. OPEC production has also become lighter with, in particular, an expansion in light oil and contraction in heavy grades from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the nature of the demand from refineries has changed with the introduction of new units designed to process the residium from heavy oil distillation. Thus the supply of light oil has expanded while demand for it has contracted with the reverse being true for heavy oil. (2 figures, 1 table) (UK)

  7. Assessing the role of coal in the world energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hibbard Junior, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    Ten recent extensive studies of long range energy futures were evaluated and a consensus of findings developed. Progress toward the consensus was determined. In the next 20 years the United States will need all of the coal, nuclear, oil shale and tar sands that public consensus and the legislatures will permit. Concerns include the cost and availability of OPEC oil, energy efficiency, acid rain, and carbon dioxide build-up. (Author) [pt

  8. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  9. IBM PC enhances the world's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Jozelle

    1988-01-01

    Although the purpose of this research is to illustrate the importance of computers to the public, particularly the IBM PC, present examinations will include computers developed before the IBM PC was brought into use. IBM, as well as other computing facilities, began serving the public years ago, and is continuing to find ways to enhance the existence of man. With new developments in supercomputers like the Cray-2, and the recent advances in artificial intelligence programming, the human race is gaining knowledge at a rapid pace. All have benefited from the development of computers in the world; not only have they brought new assets to life, but have made life more and more of a challenge everyday.

  10. Oil turbulence in the next decade. An essay on high oil prices in a supply-constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jesse, J.H.; Van der Linde, C.

    2008-06-01

    A CIEP analysis of the recent development of demand and supply for crude oil indicates that the mismatch in supply and demand growth could cause tighter oil markets than we already experience today. In the World Energy Outlook 2007, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible 'energy crunch'. But what was anticipated to happen in the first part of the next decade has been fast-forwarded to today, more than 5 years earlier, and could shake the very foundation of our energy systems if no action is undertaken. Without exaggeration, the recent developments in the international oil market are ground-breaking: a little over a year ago, in January 2007, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI) traded for USD50 dollar a barrel. Within a year, the price doubled to USD100 per barrel in January 2008 and pushed through to over USD135 in June 2008, against the backdrop of the fresh market supposition about reaching a whopping USD200 per barrel in 2009. If this proves to be true, the world will not only have moved from an 'Oil Demand-led World' to an 'Oil Supply-constrained World' (since 2004) but, more importantly, will then also experience a radical change in the oil price formation. Until recently, the oil price was largely underpinned by the marginal cost of the last barrel needed to match demand, with some political and economic conjuncture mark-ups or -downs. As will be presented in this paper, the current high oil prices are still primarily driven by structural factors that can be well explained without resorting to blaming speculative investors playing the futures market or the low dollar. But if prices are heading towards USD200 a barrel in 12 months' time, or for that matter even to USD150 a barrel, other drivers will gain prominence over marginal costs as the main driver. In that case, OPEC will have accomplished a long-held wish: oil will then be priced at its real value in the Western world (for instance the economic value of mobility for

  11. Is the world oil market 'one great pool'? A test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, A.E.; Williams, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In a recent paper (Weiner, 1991) it was argued that crude oil markets are regionalized, thus challenging the assertion that the world oil market is homogeneous. This argument bears on the effectiveness of various energy policies. It is argued that these policies should be analyzed using constructs such as antitrust markets, rather than in relation to an ad-hoc definition of regionalization like that used by Weiner. Regionalization and geographic antitrust markets, empirics, and policy implications of regional markets are discussed. By drawing clear parallels between the concept of regionalization and antitrust markets, it is shown that: due to Wiener's flawed methodological and empirical approach, it is not clear that crude oil markets are, in fact, regional; and policies that appear at first glance to require regional markets to be effective, may be explained even in a unified world market. Strong evidence is found in support of a unified world oil market. Some policy implications in the area of import taxes are discussed. 35 refs., 1 tab

  12. World oil and gas resources: status and outlook - A rational attempt at an emotional issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burri, P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the status of world oil and gas resources and attempts to provide a rational view of the situation and the prospects available. The author states that only about a quarter of the world's estimated ultimately recoverable oil resources and one eighth of the ultimate gas resources have been produced until today. Further, the author is of the opinion that very significant reserve additions are to be expected not only from the still existing exploration frontiers (e.g. deep water and Arctic fields) but even more so from new hydrocarbon detection tools, advanced recovery technology and from unconventional oil and gas resources. The price situation is discussed as are various developments that not only have a negative but also a positive impact on supplies. Reserves and unconventional resources are discussed, particularly from the pricing point of view. The effect of pricing on consumption is examined, as are new technologies for recovery and the potential available for future exploration

  13. Implementation of a World Wide Web server for the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, R.E.; Martin, F.D.; Emery, R.

    1996-01-01

    The Gas and Oil Technology Exchange and Communication Highway (GO-TECH) provides an electronic information system for the petroleum community for exchanging ideas, data, and technology. The PC-based system fosters communication and discussion by linking the oil and gas producers with resource centers, government agencies, consulting firms, service companies, national laboratories, academic research groups, and universities throughout the world. The oil and gas producers can access the GO-TECH World Wide Web (WWW) home page through modem links, as well as through the Internet. Future GO-TECH applications will include the establishment of virtual corporations consisting of consortia of small companies, consultants, and service companies linked by electronic information systems. These virtual corporations will have the resources and expertise previously found only in major corporations

  14. The Canadian oil sands--a sticky future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowtan, S A

    1977-01-01

    The oil sands have been known for 200 yr but only over the last decade have they been recognized as a potential major energy source for Canada. The study looks at the present GCOS plant, and briefly discusses Canada's future energy requirements and how she might fill those requirements from conventional and nonconventional sources, such as the Frontier areas, oil sands mining, oil sands in situ, and heavy oil. The economics and the future of these sources and the environment necessary for their development are analyzed.

  15. OPEC charts course for future oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto, H.E.

    1992-01-01

    The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

  16. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  17. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  18. The future of national oil Companies of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto.

    1994-01-01

    OPEC countries are dependent on their National Oil Companies for international trade, economy, technology transfer and social planning. With low oil prices, increasing demand and worsened financial and economic status, time has come to give priority to two major issues necessary for health existence and growth of our national oil companies : cost reduction through the application of new technologies and less support from public funds ; planning for future markets beyond national borders, particularly developing countries. (Author)

  19. A literature review of demand studies in world oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkins, F.; Tayyebi Jazayeri, S.M.

    2004-04-01

    The literature on world oil market demands was reviewed, summarized and organized into seven major groupings. The objective was to model economic behaviour before and after price shocks. In particular, the paper demonstrated how the price elasticity of demand in world oil markets is estimated. It also showed how the relationship between energy and oil consumption and income are estimated. The income elasticity of demand was also estimated, and empirical estimates of the elasticity of aggregate output regarding crude oil and energy prices were presented. The paper also referred to the transportation sector and estimates of the changing nature of seasonal factors. The review showed that there is much heterogeneity of econometric results. The literature showed that demand increased considerably in response to the price shocks of the 1970s, but these shocks were reversed in the 1980s when the increase in demand did not correspond with the decrease in price. Some of the literature is driven by the belief that there must be a stable, non-linear model that fits the data both before and after price shocks. The authors question whether this could be true and propose an alternative hypothesis that there is a different model that pertains to economic behaviour after price shocks. 15 refs., 7 tabs., 1 fig

  20. Energetic dependency on the oil reserve- resources of crude oil in the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marína Sidorová

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil belongs to the most important energy resources nowadays., However its reserves are the smallest in comparison with other energy resources as coal, gas or uranium. The world oil consumption continuously increases and within 20-year period there could be about one third. So, the consumption of combustibles will probably increase and the reserves will decrease. Promising are new resources or a better utilization of primary sources. It´s a question of a short time when world scientists should think about this indisputably worldwide problem and would provide an equivalent substitution with an available ecological solution.

  1. Taxing the difference: World oil market projections 1994-2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.I.; MacKay, E.J.

    1994-01-01

    The likely impacts of key uncertainties affecting the oil market were assessed, and reference price path to aid industry and governments in their investment and policy decisions, was provided. The reference market outlook corresponded to an annual growth of around 1.5% and a price of $ 18.00 per barrel. The greatest weakness of the market projections were found to be the expected performance of petroleum product demand growth. There was strong evidence that governments of major oil consuming countries had taken action to weaken the response of petroleum product demand to declines in the crude price, by driving an ever increasing fiscal wedge between the crude price and the corresponding product prices.The outcome is an asymmetry in demand response to crude price movements. Incorporation of this asymmetry into the world oil market model could have some disturbing results: under the reference case market assumptions, continuation of this tax and pricing policy would not only eliminate the price gains projected, but move the oil price below current levels on a sustained basis. The study concluded that OPEC members and the governments of the major industrialized oil consuming countries should strive to reach an agreement to avoid catastrophic price instability. refs., tabs., figs

  2. Evidence of efficiency in United States futures oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duchock, C.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use the Perpetual Contract Data for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures contracts in studies of the US crude oil futures market prices to determine whether the market was efficient. Analysis was done to determine whether the Perpetual Contract Data exhibited the characteristics of a random walk. Daily data on US crude oil perpetual futures contract prices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques and spectral analysis techniques. Spectral analysis was used on the first differences of daily data to determine whether the price change data contained cyclicality. Results showed no significant cycles or autocorrelation in the data, concluding there was evidence to indicate the Perpetual Contract Data for futures prices is a random walk. This is similar to the conclusion by Howard (1988) that spot West Texas Intermediate Crude prices follow a random walk. Thus, both the futures and spot markets efficiently capture current information in prices

  3. Oil sands development in a carbon constrained world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDougall, J. [Alberta Research Council, Devon, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The challenges facing oilsands development in Alberta were discussed in this PowerPoint presentation. In 2005, 71 per cent of Alberta's export value was derived from energy and mining. The author addressed the issue that resource based economies have rarely succeeded in the long term. He then demonstrated how such economies could capture value from technology. The primary focus was on the goal to develop and adapt greenhouse gas (GHG) transformational technologies that will break the link between hydrocarbon energy use and GHG emissions. The role of oil sands in this endeavour was also discussed. Alberta's oil sands are the world's largest hydrocarbon resource, with 315 b bbls proven reserves, and 2.5 t bbls potential reserves. As an important economic driver for Alberta, oil sands production is expected to grow significantly in the next 2 decades. Since bitumen production is more energy intensive than conventional oil, the industry is faced with the challenge of sustainable development. Concentrated GHG emissions create opportunities to proceed with long-term oil sands development with a sustainable level of GHG emissions, but technology and infrastructure are needed to take advantage of them. Current carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage projects in Alberta were highlighted. The economic potential of geological storage of CO{sub 2} through acid gas injection or deep disposal was discussed in terms of enhanced oil recovery, enhanced coalbed methane recovery, enhanced gas recovery and cost avoidance of CO{sub 2} per tonne. It was emphasized that a long-term vision and commitment is needed to balance with short term problems solving and longer-term strategic agendas. tabs., figs.

  4. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  5. Mahdi Elmandjra and the Future of the Muslim World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Fariza Alyati Wan Zakaria

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The increasing problems and challenges facing the Muslims and the Muslim world nowadays have raised serious concern about the future of the Muslims and the Muslim World among many Muslim scholars. The post-Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979 had always been seen as the landmark of the rising discourses over the future of Islam, Muslims and the Muslim world. Mahdi Elmandjra, a prominent sociologist and futurist, is one of the Muslim scholars who consistently discuss about the issue and urge the Muslims to take responsibility to create a better future in a systematic way and not to fall into the vicious cycle of misfortunes. This paper aims at discussing Elmandjra’s views on this issue and underscoring the contribution and significance of such discourse within contemporary development.

  6. Pollination networks of oil-flowers: a tiny world within the smallest of all worlds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezerra, Elisângela L S; Machado, Isabel C; Mello, Marco A R

    2009-09-01

    1. In the Neotropics, most plants depend on animals for pollination. Solitary bees are the most important vectors, and among them members of the tribe Centridini depend on oil from flowers (mainly Malpighiaceae) to feed their larvae. This specialized relationship within 'the smallest of all worlds' (a whole pollination network) could result in a 'tiny world' different from the whole system. This 'tiny world' would have higher nestedness, shorter path lengths, lower modularity and higher resilience if compared with the whole pollination network. 2. In the present study, we contrasted a network of oil-flowers and their visitors from a Brazilian steppe ('caatinga') to whole pollination networks from all over the world. 3. A network approach was used to measure network structure and, finally, to test fragility. The oil-flower network studied was more nested (NODF = 0.84, N = 0.96) than all of the whole pollination networks studied. Average path lengths in the two-mode network were shorter (one node, both for bee and plant one-mode network projections) and modularity was lower (M = 0.22 and four modules) than in all of the whole pollination networks. Extinctions had no or small effects on the network structure, with an average change in nestedness smaller than 2% in most of the cases studied; and only two species caused coextinctions. The higher the degree of the removed species, the stronger the effect and the higher the probability of a decrease in nestedness. 4. We conclude that the oil-flower subweb is more cohesive and resilient than whole pollination networks. Therefore, the Malpighiaceae have a robust pollination service in the Neotropics. Our findings reinforce the hypothesis that each ecological service is in fact a mosaic of different subservices with a hierarchical structure ('webs within webs').

  7. Shanghai and Hong Kong Join Efforts for Oil Futures Exchanges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    @@ Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) announced in midApril they will jointly introduce crude oil futures. The two exchanges will jointly develop an energy derivatives market that serves both Chinese and international investors,according to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the two exchanges.

  8. Oil futures prices and stock management: a cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, Stefan

    1995-01-01

    Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)

  9. Distribution and quantitative assessment of world crude oil reserves and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masters, Charles D.; Root, David H.; Dietzman, William D.

    1983-01-01

    World Demonstrated Reserves of crude oil are approximately 723 billion barrels of oil (BBO). Cumulative production is 445 BBO and annual production is 20 BBO. Demonstrated Reserves of crude-oil have declined over the past 10 years consistent with discoveries lagging production over the same period. The assessment of Undiscovered Resources shows a 90 percent probability that the amount discoverable lies between 321 and 1,417 BBO, 550 BBO being the most likely value. The most likely value for Ultimate recoverable resources is 1,718 BBO. The distribution of Ultimate Resources of crude oil will remain highly skewed toward the Middle East; no frontier areas that have potentials large enough to significantly affect present distribution are recognized. Rates of discovery have continued to decline over the past 20 years even though exploration activity has increased in recent years. Prudence dictates, therefore, that the low side of the assessment of Undiscovered Resources be responsibly considered and that alternate energy sources be a part of future planning. Extra-heavy oil and bitumen are assessed separately, with Reserves being figured as the annual productive capacity of installed facilities times 25 years. The annual production of extra-heavy oil is about 8 million barrels and of bitumen about 60 million barrels.

  10. Natural gas central to world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Continued growth in demand for natural gas is one of three pillars around which the energy mix of the future will take shape and upon which energy strategies should be based. The others are consumption efficiency and growth of renewable energy sources. This paper evaluates world energy supply and demand and includes an analysis of world pipeline gas, electricity, and LNG trends. The paper discusses the natural gas resource, proved reserves, reserves growth, gas prices and demand, country demand trends, world energy use, gas pipeline construction, power generation, electricity consumption and prices, and global carbon emissions

  11. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-10-15

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  12. European oil refining: strategies for a competitive future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, James.

    1997-07-01

    European Oil Refining investigates how the industry came to be in crisis and what the future holds. As well as an extensive analysis of past and present market shifts, the report predicts likely future developments and their consequences for investors. The report reviews the European oil sector in a global context, calculates the cost to refiners of key environmental legislation, assesses the problems caused by changing product demand and crude supply, examines possible solutions to the problems of low margins and overcapacity, evaluates the key players' main strategies to increase their competitiveness, analyses the western European oil refining industry by country, details the refinery operations of the major countries of central and eastern Europe, profiles 15 of the major oil companies and estimates the increase in investment required as a result of legislative and demand changes. (author)

  13. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  14. Factors affecting world and Russian domestic oil prices: the domestic implications - a Russian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper modestly aims at answering two formally related but unnecessarily interconnected questions about international and Russian domestic pricing of crude oil. The first of them is what, in our opinion, chiefly determines price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market. And the second one is in which way (if at all) world oil price dynamics affect Russia's internal market. (author)

  15. The near future prospects of Russian oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtimaeki, H.

    1995-01-01

    The central role of oil, natural gas and coal production in Russian national economy, and the active role of the country in international trade of fuels are well-known facts, the development of which has also remarkable effect on the western industrialised countries - especially due to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union followed by the economical reconstruction. This review deals with the structure of the Russian oil industry and the future prospects of it. (3 tabs.)

  16. Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

    In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

  17. The united states and the world oil security. US oil policy and production of a global collective good

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    2004-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to define and discusses the part of the Unites States in the world oil system operating and more particularly the US oil security policy in the world policy. It refutes some established ideas as the necessity of the US military supremacy to provide the oil security, the necessity of ''agreements'' with oil exporting countries facing the US energy consumption increase or the limitation of the resources access to other countries. At the opposite the United States seem to invest in the production of a global public good in matter of energy security. In order to illustrate this opinion the author defines the problem of the US oil security in a world context. He analyzes then the US policies to show the impacts in the world oil security and studies the specific part of the military factor in the security policy. (A.L.B.)

  18. Energy in the world: The present situation and future options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1989-01-01

    It is reported that the most notable changes on the world energy scene since 1973 concerned the shift in OPEC's role from a base to a swing producer, the disruption of the fast market penetration of nuclear power and the impacts caused by the technical advances at essentially all stages of the energy system. Further, several parts of the world witnessed a strong environmental movement which attracted public attention to the conduct of the energy industry and its social implications and environmental consequences. The lecture illuminates these events in some detail and evaluate their impacts on present and future energy demand, supply and trade patterns. The future energy outlook includes two fundamentally different scenarios. Each scenario in itself appears internally consistent. The diverging projections of future energy demand and supply mixes underlying these scenarios are the result of the inclusion/omission of technical change or dynamics of technology into the analyses. 19 refs, 22 figs

  19. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  20. Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

    1981-04-01

    An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

  1. Energy for a righteous world with a safe future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    We are in charge of our energy future and thus of the future itself. Energy decisions in the past were made on a too narrow and short-term basis, and we can daily clearly observe their inadequacy. The policy's quality does not correspond to the significance of the problem. A greater approximation leads to a consequent policy of the development of energy alternatives, of which some considerably deviate from those which would result at a closer look. This lecture deals with two aspects of the problem, both concern the future of nuclear energy. The first aspect treats extensively the energy possibilities available to the world in the future; the second deals more with the problem of the acceptibility of nuclear energy, reprocessing of nuclear fuels, the relationship to atomic armament and the thus involved problems. (orig.) [de

  2. The future of oil: unconventional fossil fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Kenneth J

    2014-01-13

    Unconventional fossil hydrocarbons fall into two categories: resource plays and conversion-sourced hydrocarbons. Resource plays involve the production of accumulations of solid, liquid or gaseous hydro-carbons that have been generated over geological time from organic matter in source rocks. The character of these hydrocarbons may have been modified subsequently, especially in the case of solids and extra-heavy liquids. These unconventional hydrocarbons therefore comprise accumulations of hydrocarbons that are trapped in an unconventional manner and/or whose economic exploitation requires complex and technically advanced production methods. This review focuses primarily on unconventional liquid hydro-carbons. The future potential of unconventional gas, especially shale gas, is also discussed, as it is revolutionizing the energy outlook in North America and elsewhere.

  3. The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Raymond; Leung, Guy C.K.

    2011-01-01

    The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market. - Highlights: → Review of the oil trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government. → Review of the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies. → China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. → Shipment data show that China can no longer be regarded as a separate market. → Strong co-movement between the Chinese oil price and the international oil prices.

  4. World oil market fundamentals - Part One: The near term outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwarkin, J.; Morton, K.; Datta, R.

    1998-03-01

    Potential implications of a number of uncertainties currently affecting the world oil market are assessed. The influence of the interplay of geopolitical events on demand and supply, inventories, prices and price trends are reviewed. Reference prices which industry and governments can use for investment and policy evaluations are provided. In this volume, the emphasis is on near term developments, with a review of the uncertainties surrounding these projections. Three different scenarios are postulated for the near term, each one taking into account different levels of Iraqi exports during the period which would effect available inventories, and hence price. Depending on which of the three scenarios actually comes to pass, unless refiners are prepared to build up inventories well beyond seasonal norms, or producers shut in, the prevailing view is that oil prices will be under severe pressure during most of 1998 and 1999. Over the longer term, however, the analysis suggests that an average real value of US$18.00 - $18.50 per barrel remains a reasonable expectation as a sustainable price. 34 refs., tabs., figs

  5. CEO's guide to world business costs : oil and gas equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a detailed study of wellhead equipment manufacturing costs in 11 countries in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Canada has a 5 per cent cost advantage and will be the best country in the world to do business between 2004 to 2008 because of its foreign trade policies, high quality infrastructure and market opportunities within the North American marketplace. KPMG Consulting developed a web-based cost model that allows investors to examine the costs involved in setting up and operating a business in more than 120 cities in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Japan and Australia. According to the model, a comparison of annual costs for oil and gas wellhead equipment manufacturing was presented for the 11 countries with reference to revenues, costs, and profits before and after income tax. In addition, Canada's research and development (R and D) cost advantage compared to the United States was presented, with reference to tax credits, expenditures, salaries, contracts, capital equipment, volume-based tax credits, and research studies. This report also includes a brief summary of 3 oil and gas companies that came to Canada and prospered. tabs., figs

  6. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalick, S.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1980-08-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  7. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.

    1980-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrides are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpaint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  8. Impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Jansen, P.; Kessler, G.; Klumpp, P.

    1981-01-01

    An investigation has been conducted to examine the impact of fusion-fission hybrids on world nuclear future. The primary objectives of this investigation have been: (1) to determine whether hybrids can allow us to meet the projected nuclear component of the world energy demand within current estimates of uranium resources with or without fast breeders, and (2) to identify the preferred hybrid concept from a resource standpoint. The results indicate that hybrids have the potential to lower the world uranium demand to values well below the resource base. However, the time window for hybrid introduction is quite near and narrow (2000-2020). If historical market penetration rates are assumed, the demand will not be met within the resource base unless hybrids are coupled to the breeders. The results also indicate that from a resource standpoint hybrids which breed their own tritium and have a low blanket energy multiplication are preferable. (orig.) [de

  9. Proceedings of the CERI 2003 World Oil Conference : What lies beneath? CD-ROM ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The 22 presentations at this conference reflected recent developments in the international petroleum industry with particular focus on the outlook of world energy markets and prospects for oil supply and reserves. Topics of discussion included the industry structure, development and operating costs, international spending, the expansion of world oil markets, market access, as well as new technology development and application. The papers also covered environmental issues such as climate change and the responsible use of water. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in the current marketplace. The conference was divided into 7 sessions entitled: (1) outlook for oil prices, (2) global oil supplies, (3) oil and money, (4) downstream issues, (5) markets for Canadian bitumen and synthetics, (6) Canada's east coast, and (7) the geopolitical landscape. Three papers were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. tabs., figs

  10. World oil and gas resources: status and outlook - A rational attempt at an emotional issue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burri, P.

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the status of world oil and gas resources and attempts to provide a rational view of the situation and the prospects available. The author states that only about a quarter of the world's estimated ultimately recoverable oil resources and one eighth of the ultimate gas resources have been produced until today. Further, the author is of the opinion that very significant reserve additions are to be expected not only from the still existing exploration frontiers (e.g. deep water and Arctic fields) but even more so from new hydrocarbon detection tools, advanced recovery technology and from unconventional oil and gas resources. The price situation is discussed as are various developments that not only have a negative but also a positive impact on supplies. Reserves and unconventional resources are discussed, particularly from the pricing point of view. The effect of pricing on consumption is examined, as are new technologies for recovery and the potential available for future exploration

  11. Future energy supplies. Lessons from the world energy outlook 2001. Insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cattier, F.

    2002-01-01

    At a global level, primary energy resources are amply sufficient to meet the growing needs expected over the coming decades. Energy supplies may however be affected by economic, technological or political conditions. Supplies of oil and natural gas will be dependent in particular on the carrying out of the necessary investments in the field of development, production capacity, transport and distribution within a suitable time. The future for coal is above all linked to future environmental policies to be put in place and on the capacity of 'clean' coal technologies to respond to these. Due to their costs, which remain high, and to a lack of incentive policies, renewable energy sources should find it difficult to gain a major share of world energy markets. Finally, the future for nuclear energy remains dependent upon policies concerning security of supply or the fight against climatic change. (author)

  12. The geopolitics of oil in a carbon-constrained world

    OpenAIRE

    Verbruggen, Aviel; Van de Graaf, Thijs

    2015-01-01

    Aviel Verbruggen and Thijs Van de Graaf posit that the dominant view of oil geopolitics as a struggle over scarce reserves is lopsided. Assuming that strict carbon limits will be imposed as a result of expected climate change, they believe oil markets will face a structural glut. The geopolitics of oil revolves around abundance-induced conflict, with rival oil producers competing to serve the shrinking oil market.

  13. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the

  14. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the pattern, giving one or more new

  15. Shell's Big Dirty Secret. Insight into the world's most carbon intensive oil company and the legacy of CEO Jeroen van der Veer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, L.; Rowell, A.; Kretzmann, S.

    2009-06-01

    Royal Dutch Shell plc is the largest oil operator in Nigeria, and holds more acreage in Canada's oil sands than any other corporation. Because of these facts, and several others, Shell is also the most carbon intensive oil company in the world. In short, for every barrel of oil it produces in the future, Shell will contribute more to global warming than any other oil company. This report documents Shell's record investment in dirty forms of energy, and it illuminates the corporate strategy and lobbying for regulations that indicate it intends to profit from that position for a long time to come (authors' abstract)

  16. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  17. World Oil: Coping With the Dangers of Success. Worldwatch Paper 66.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flavin, Christopher

    This publication examines various topics and issues related to the world oil situation. Major areas considered are: (1) the nature and consequences of the current oil glut; (2) a historical overview of the petroleum era (with analyses of the three time periods of 1900-1973, 1973-1979, and 1979-1981); (3) the geopolitics of oil (including data on…

  18. Asian oil refining. Demand growth and deregulation - an uncertain future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameer Nawaz.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the report is to identify the most important features of the oil refining industry in Asia. Major developments in consumption patterns changes in regional importance of countries are discussed, highlighting potential future developments. The first chapter introduces the various refining processes and presents a simple model for the analysis of complex refineries. Chapter 2 examines the development of the Asian refining industry against a background of economic growth and analyses trends in consumption of all products in Asian countries. In Chapter 3, the key issues concerning the refining industry are examined, among them the forces driving consumption, including the importance of economic development, and electricity and transport demand. The importance of product imports and international trade is discussed, and the extent of government involvement and the effects of changing retail and market prices are analysed. Chapter 4 looks at the strategies that oil and gas companies are following in the Asian refining industry. Particular significance is attached to the vertical integration of the oil majors, Japanese and Middle Eastern oil companies. A brief overview of the importance of the petrochemical industry is presented. The countries of Asia that are involved in the refining industry are profiled in Chapter 5. The future trend in oil consumption is examined in Chapter 6. There follows a brief discussion of the plans to expand crude refining capacity in the various countries and a forecast of the state of overcapacity which will result. In the final chapter, brief profiles of some of the most important companies in the Asian refining industry are presented, discussing their major activities and future plans. (Author)

  19. Oil-based technology and economy prospects for the future. A short introduction to basic issues and a review of oil depletion projections derived from different theories and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-12-01

    Recognising the world economy's technological dependence on oil and, hence, the serious consequences of a decline in oil production for which the world community is technologically unprepared, The Danish Board of Technology and The Society of Danish Engineers wish to draw attention to the issue and to the different analyses of oil resources and future oil production potentials published by various researchers and institutions, In pursuance of this objective, the two institutions have jointly commissioned this review and organised the conference Oil Demand, Production and Cost - Prospects for the Future. The aim of the review is to outline the characteristics of the cheap-oil economy and provide the participants in the conference and other interested parties with an overview of different scenarios for the future development in demand and supply, presented by various experienced researchers and institutions who base their analyses on different methodologies. The evidence thus provided should constitute a structured framework for the discussion at the conference. (BA)

  20. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dargay, Joyce M.; Gately, Dermot

    2010-01-01

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  1. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Hong Kong's first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as 'a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong' fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory's oil industry either. (author)

  2. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, Paul [Pearl Oil Ltd. (Hong Kong)

    1997-09-01

    Hong Kong`s first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as `a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong` fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory`s oil industry either. (author)

  3. Forecasting Palm Oil Price Movements In Malaysia: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Palm Oil Futures Market.

    OpenAIRE

    Amran, Zulfathi

    2010-01-01

    The palm oil industry is one of the main commodity industries in South East Asia. This is the case for the two main producers and exporters of crude palm oil in the world, Malaysia and Indonesia, and thus there is an importance placed on the trading of the commodity in Malaysia, especially for hedging purposes for the producers. This is because; the main use of the product is for exporting purposes rather than for consumption, and thus it is important if there is a tool that the producers or ...

  4. Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

    2001-01-01

    We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

  5. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  6. Climate-wise choices in a world of oil abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Adam R.; Masnadi, Mohammad S.; Englander, Jacob G.; Koomey, Jonathan; Gordon, Deborah

    2018-04-01

    Constrained oil supply has given way to abundance at a time when strong action on climate change is wavering. Recent innovation has pushed US oil production to all-time heights and driven oil prices lower. At the same time, attention to climate policy is wavering due to geopolitical upheaval. Nevertheless, climate-wise choices in the oil sector remain a priority, given oil’s large role in modern economies. Here we use a set of open-source models along with a detailed dataset comprising 75 global crude oils (~25% of global production) to estimate the effects of carbon intensity and oil demand on decadal scale oil-sector emissions. We find that oil resources are abundant relative to all projections of 21st century demand, due to large light-tight oil (LTO) and heavy oil/bitumen (HOB) resources. We then investigate the ‘barrel forward’ emissions from producing, refining, and consuming all products from a barrel of crude. These oil resources have diverse life-cycle-greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions impacts, and median per-barrel emissions for unconventional resources vary significantly. Median HOB life cycle emissions are 1.5 times those of median LTO emissions, exceeding them by 200 kgCO2eq./bbl. We show that reducing oil LC-GHGs is a mitigation opportunity worth 10–50 gigatonnes CO2 eq. cumulatively by 2050. We discuss means to reduce oil sector LC-GHGs. Results point to the need for policymakers to address both oil supply and oil demand when considering options to reduce LC-GHGs.

  7. Comment on the UPS (and past and future downs) of the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walde, T.

    2000-01-01

    Crude oil has been rising to levels over 35 US$ per barrel from the very low prices of early 1999 - close to 10 $. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, this leaves it still at a third of the prices prevailing during the peak of 1981. This trend has been accelerated currently by short-term influences market factors. Who could have forecasted such price evolution by January 1999, when crude prices were collapsing, following the series of financial crises in Asia, Russia and Brazil? The current oil price surge has been breaking once again every 'crystal ball' and mathematical model designed to predict short-or-long-term oil price evolution - foremost the models used by the international oil companies and their advisers, chastened by the embarrassment of earlier optimism. Old ghosts that used to scare the world during the energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's are waking up again. Traditional forces that have since 1985 and throughout the whole 1990's given economic rationality to crude price behaviour, seem to be losing ground and are unable to restore a more sustainable level of oil prices. Political forces, silent since the price collapse of 1985/86, have again raised their head and bringing to the fore historic contradictions and problems never solved. This paper covers this new reality. We are too cautions to dare to forecast, but rather identify factors that have to be considered in speculating about the future evolution of oil prices. The changing weight of those factors will continue to influence the future of the oil price - without much interest (apart from the producers) when low but again greatly debated when, as now, up again. (authors)

  8. The Future of Education into a Digital World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Jelev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article investigate the role of communication in the digital age, between consumers and business and seeks to render highlighting changes within the Romanian society in the last 26 years, with the effects occurred in people's behavior, but also the changes of university education at the discipline I teach, Merchandising and International Marketing, with impact on the delivery of new information to the students of the Faculty of Economic Sciences, within Spiru Haret University. We live in an era where everything seems to change and evolve almost overnight. ”The world economic order went through a tectonic transformation, accompanied by, and in part caused by, groundbreaking advances in science and technology and the rise of globalization” . New industries start to develop, while others are on their last legs or already extinct in a world of advanced, emerging, and developing countries. As a result, lots of jobs from years past aren’t as relevant today as they once were, and many no longer exist. Therefore it’s easy to predict that eventually, today’s jobs will evolve into something completely different. And some will become obsolete. And it is those changes that lead to multiple consequences, affecting many other fields, one being education. We need a broad, flexible and motivating education that recognizes the different talents of all children and delivers excellence for everyone. Studying methods and curricula from the 20th century may no longer be relevant in the constantly evolving and changing world of the 21st century, in preparing you for your future job. And in order to maximize your chances of having a successful career in the field of your choice, you have to constantly adapt and evolve. Creative education involves a balance between teaching knowledge and skills, and encouraging innovation. New branches of industries will appear, and potential employers and employees will need to acquire new skills and abilities. And it is

  9. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-09-12

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  10. Future World Energy Constraints and the Direction for Solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lightfoot, H.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper was originally written in response to the concern that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere caused by burning of fossil fuels will ultimately contribute to global warming. Now we are beginning to see evidence of coming problems in the supply of fuels for transportation. This paper describes the benefits of adequate energy supply and the problems of future energy supply. Partial solutions are suggested for immediate application as well as longer term solutions to address both of these concerns. To evaluate the situation and solutions we must understand: (1) how much primary energy is currently used world-wide and might be needed in 2100, (2) how important energy is to the welfare of people, (3) the forms of energy sources and end uses and (4) where new sources may come from. The major portion of world primary energy demand is provided by fossil fuels. This portion dropped from 93% in 1970 to 85% in 1995, mainly because of the increased use of nuclear energy. How ever, since the mid-1990s fossil fuels have maintained their 85% share of world energy supply. The importance of the relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita income for the world is discussed. The limits of conservation, energy efficiency and renewable energies are examined. The contribution of renewable energies is compared to 41 different views of world energy demand in 2100. Without new technology for large scale storage of intermittent electricity from wind and solar the contribution of renewable energies is not likely to grow significantly beyond the current level of 7-8%. The paper offers conclusions and partial solutions that we can work on immediately. Examination of the forms of energy supplied by the sun, which is powered by nuclear fusion, and the way in which nuclear fission currently supplies energy to the world sets the research framework for longer term solutions. This framework points towards two possible longer term complementary res earch projects which

  11. Water, oil, climate: a dried-up broken down world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautier, C.; Fellous, J.L.

    2008-01-01

    Climate crisis, oil crisis, water crisis, food crisis: the 21. century has started badly. Climate is deteriorating under man's action and natural resources are drying up while demand is still on the rise under the double effect of demographic and economic growth. Even worse, tensions are working together and worsen each other in a climate of financial crisis. All warning lights are on the red and a huge challenge has been launched which involves all countries, developed and developing. Solutions are urgently needed, otherwise our civilization would be threatened. The reasoned use of technologies, but also the abatement of poverty and inequalities and the education of people are essential points to take up the challenge. The authors examine the interconnections between energy, water, food at the time of climate change and explore the possible alternative solutions. The lesson that should be learnt from their analysis is that everyone should contribute to the complex decisions that will have an impact on the future of humanity. (J.S.)

  12. Present and future of flat panel detectors in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inamura, Kiyonari

    2002-01-01

    Present status of development of flat panel detectors and their clinical application in the world have been surveyed, and future trends are also explored especially in the field of material researches and methods of manufacturing. Also the importance of role of medical physicists on user side is described because characteristic physics measurement of a detector assembly is unavoidable and essential in quality assurance in clinical routine and acceptance test in hospitals. Even though physics measurements and clinical evaluations on flat panel detectors have shown remarkable progress and advances in these several years, future problems of cost down in manufacturing and quality assurance to prevent individual differences between detector assemblies must be resolved. Results of evaluation in mammography, chest radiography, fluoroscopy for cardiovascular examination, bone tumor examination and radiotherapy application indicate that flat panel detectors are future promising materials. Their systematic operation is contributing to heighten accuracy of image examinations and preciseness of radiation therapy. Encouragement to medical physicists relevant to flat panel detectors is also raised in this paper. (author)

  13. World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vareikis Egidijus

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

  14. Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hankyeung Choi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives products (namely, crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread for modeling and forecasting daily OPEC crude oil spot prices is evaluated. Based on the results of a structural break test, the sample is divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. We find a unidirectional relationship from the two crack spread derivatives markets to the crude oil spot market during the post-crisis period. In terms of forecasting performance, the forecasting models based on crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread outperform the Random Walk Model (RWM, both in-sample and out-of-sample. In addition, on average, the results suggest that information from the ETF crack spread market contributes more to the forecasting models than information from the crack spread futures market.

  15. World Oil Price and Biofuels : A General Equilibrium Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 20...

  16. The world's nuclear future - built on material success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ion, Sue

    2010-07-01

    In our energy hungry world of the twenty-first century, the future of electricity generation must meet the twin challenges of security of supply and reduced carbon emissions. The expectations for nuclear power programmes to play a part in delivering success on both counts, grows ever higher. The nuclear industry is poised on a renaissance likely to dwarf the heady days of the 1960s and early 1970s. Global supply chain and project management challenges abound, now just as then. The science and engineering of materials will be key to the successful deployment and operation of a new generation of reactor systems and their associated fuel cycles. Understanding and predicting materials performance will be key to achieving life extension of existing assets and underpinning waste disposal options, as well as giving confidence to the designers, their financial backers and governments across the globe, that the next generation of reactors will deliver their full potential.

  17. China's new oil import status underpins world's most dynamic petroleum scene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    China is poised to become a net importer of oil in 1994--95. That sets the stage for China importing more than 1 million b/d of crude oil and refined products on a net basis by the turn of the century. That development underpins a bigger story -- arguably the biggest story on the petroleum scene today. The turnabout that is seeing the world's fifth biggest oil producer go from significant oil exporter in recent years to major oil importer by the turn of the century points to several other truisms in the petroleum industry: That an oil demand surge in the Asia-Pacific region led by China will fuel overall world oil demand growth for years to come; that a refining and petrochemical boom in a country that accounts for about one fifth of the world's population has dramatic implications for those two industries; that privatization has gathered so much momentum in the global petroleum industry that even Communist China has embraced some form of it; that China's domestic crude supply shortfall is creating unprecedented opportunities for foreign upstream investors in one of the world's most prospective yet underexplored and underexploited regions; and that the same new openness that is distinguishing China's petroleum industry today is turning some of its state owned companies into major competitors to be reckoned with on the international scene, upstream and downstream. The paper discusses China's oil export/import balance, supply/demand outlook, policy changes, and new regulations governing export of crude oil and products

  18. A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Banerjee, Shayan

    2014-01-01

    Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories. - Highlights: • The world oil market is not completely unified. • Regions are defined by differences in API gravity and sulfur content. • Country risk regionalizes the world oil market. • Shipping chokepoints regionalize the world oil market. • Regionalization adds $0.20 to $2.86 price difference between oils in same market

  19. Role of modern climate and hydrology in world oil preservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szatmari, Peter

    1992-12-01

    The accumulation of oil requires a favorable source, a reservoir, good seal-rock quality, and suitably timed thermal history and structuring. The accumulated oil, especially its light fractions, may be subsequently removed by hydrologically controlled processes such as water washing, biodegradation, and tilting of the oil-water contact. These processes are dependent on the climate. In regions that have become increasingly cold or dry during late Cenozoic time, low rainfall, low ground-water flow rates, and low input of nutrients and microorganisms have protected the oil; in warm or temperate rainy climates, high flow rates and high input of nutrients and microorganisms have led to partial or total removal of oil. Thus, most of the rich (>500 000 barrels/day) oil provinces on land are in cold or dry regions, where water is recharged in highlands that receive little rain (sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, India, and most of China, rich oil provinces on land (outside young deltas) are rare, and biodegradation is widespread.

  20. Future of oil and gas development in the western Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finer, Matt; Babbitt, Bruce; Novoa, Sidney; Ferrarese, Francesco; Pappalardo, Salvatore Eugenio; Marchi, Massimo De; Saucedo, Maria; Kumar, Anjali

    2015-01-01

    The western Amazon is one of the world’s last high-biodiversity wilderness areas, characterized by extraordinary species richness and large tracts of roadless humid tropical forest. It is also home to an active hydrocarbon (oil and gas) sector, characterized by operations in extremely remote areas that require new access routes. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of the hydrocarbon sector and its associated road-building in the western Amazon. Specifically, we document the (a) current panorama, including location and development status of all oil and gas discoveries, of the sector, and (b) current and future scenario of access (i.e. access road versus roadless access) to discoveries. We present an updated 2014 western Amazon hydrocarbon map illustrating that oil and gas blocks now cover 733 414 km 2 , an area much larger than the US state of Texas, and have been expanding since the last assessment in 2008. In terms of access, we documented 11 examples of the access road model and six examples of roadless access across the region. Finally, we documented 35 confirmed and/or suspected untapped hydrocarbon discoveries across the western Amazon. In the Discussion, we argue that if these reserves must be developed, use of the offshore inland model—a method that strategically avoids the construction of access roads—is crucial to minimizing ecological impacts in one of the most globally important conservation regions. (letter)

  1. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  2. The status of world oil depletion at the end of 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.J.

    1996-01-01

    An assessment is made of the reserves of conventional and non-conventional oil in the world as of the end of 1995. This takes into account the impacts of new discovery and advances in technology to make plausible estimates. Care is taken to clearly define conventional and non-conventional oil and whether or not natural gas liquids are included. (Author)

  3. Alternative futures for world cereal and meat consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosegrant, M W; Leach, N; Gerpacio, R V

    1999-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the global structure of food demand will lead to an extraordinary increase in the importance of developing countries in global food markets. Economic growth in developing countries is changing consumption patterns, with slower growth (and in many countries actual declines) in per capita food consumption of grains and rapidly growing per capita and total meat consumption, combined with induced growth in cereal feed consumption. The present paper examines the hypothesis, suggested by some researchers, that high-meat diets in developed countries limit improvement in food security in developing countries. These analysts argue that reduced meat consumption in developed countries would release cereals from livestock feed to food for poorer populations, thus improving food security in developing countries. Using the International Food Policy Research Institute (Washington, DC, USA) global food projections model, the international model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade (see Rosegrant et al. 1995), we first analyse the implications for future global cereal and meat supply and demand resulting from changes in global income, population growth and other structural changes, then simulate alternative scenarios to examine the effect of large reductions in meat consumption in developed countries on food consumption and food security in developing countries. The paper shows that while the long-term prospects for food supply, demand and trade indicate a strengthening of world cereal and livestock markets, the improvement in food security in the developing world will be slow, and changes in the dietary patterns in developed countries are not an effective route to improvement in food security in developing countries.

  4. Inferred demand and supply elasticities from a comparison of world oil models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, H.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper summarizes the responses of oil supply and demand to prices and income in 11 world oil models that were compared in a recent Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) study. In May 1989, the EMF commenced a study of international oil supplies and demands (hereafter, EMF-11) to compare alternative perspectives on supply and demand issues and how these developments influence the level and direction of world oil prices. In analysing these issues, the EMF-11 working group relied partly upon results from 11 world oil models, using standardized assumptions about oil prices and gross domestic product (GDP). During the study, inferred price elasticities of supply and demand were derived from a comparison of results across different oil price scenarios with the same GDP growth path. Inferred income elasticities of demand were derived from a comparison of results across different economic growth scenarios with the same oil price-path. Together, these estimates summarize several important relationships for understanding oil markets. The first section provides some background on the EMF study and on general trends in the scenarios of interest that help to understand the results. Following sections explain the derivation and qualifications of the inferred estimates, report the results and summarize the key conclusions. (author)

  5. Oil palm genome sequence reveals divergence of interfertile species in old and new worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rajinder; Ong-Abdullah, Meilina; Low, Eng-Ti Leslie; Manaf, Mohamad Arif Abdul; Rosli, Rozana; Nookiah, Rajanaidu; Ooi, Leslie Cheng-Li; Ooi, Siew–Eng; Chan, Kuang-Lim; Halim, Mohd Amin; Azizi, Norazah; Nagappan, Jayanthi; Bacher, Blaire; Lakey, Nathan; Smith, Steven W; He, Dong; Hogan, Michael; Budiman, Muhammad A; Lee, Ernest K; DeSalle, Rob; Kudrna, David; Goicoechea, Jose Louis; Wing, Rod; Wilson, Richard K; Fulton, Robert S; Ordway, Jared M; Martienssen, Robert A; Sambanthamurthi, Ravigadevi

    2013-01-01

    Oil palm is the most productive oil-bearing crop. Planted on only 5% of the total vegetable oil acreage, palm oil accounts for 33% of vegetable oil, and 45% of edible oil worldwide, but increased cultivation competes with dwindling rainforest reserves. We report the 1.8 gigabase (Gb) genome sequence of the African oil palm Elaeis guineensis, the predominant source of worldwide oil production. 1.535 Gb of assembled sequence and transcriptome data from 30 tissue types were used to predict at least 34,802 genes, including oil biosynthesis genes and homologues of WRINKLED1 (WRI1), and other transcriptional regulators1, which are highly expressed in the kernel. We also report the draft sequence of the S. American oil palm Elaeis oleifera, which has the same number of chromosomes (2n=32) and produces fertile interspecific hybrids with E. guineensis2, but appears to have diverged in the new world. Segmental duplications of chromosome arms define the palaeotetraploid origin of palm trees. The oil palm sequence enables the discovery of genes for important traits as well as somaclonal epigenetic alterations which restrict the use of clones in commercial plantings3, and thus helps achieve sustainability for biofuels and edible oils, reducing the rainforest footprint of this tropical plantation crop. PMID:23883927

  6. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    OpenAIRE

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crud...

  7. Charting the new world order: proceedings of the 15. CERI international oil and gas markets conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-10-01

    The 15th International Oil and Gas Markets Conference, organized by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) and held in Calgary, AB, provided a wide variety of opportunities for discussion of the global oil and gas market outlook, international oil and gas market strategies and corporate planning in the new world order, competition for investments, the re-emergence of the geopolitics of energy, energy in the Americas, international gas market strategies, and the financing of Canadian international operations. More than 100 delegates from around the world attended the conference to hear some 20 presentations. refs., tabs., figs

  8. From rocks to oil : researchers become the first in the world to determine the age of oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crawshaw, C

    2005-06-10

    This article discussed the discovery of a method to accurately determine the age of oil. The discovery was made by two geologists at the University of Alberta, and provides critical information about the formation of oil which will help to better understand oil deposits. The scientists have suggested that the giant oil sand deposits in Alberta were formed 112 million years ago and not 60 million years ago as was previously thought. They used isotopes of rhenium and osmium, elements found in trace amounts in oil, to pinpoint when oil formed in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), which contains much of the world's oil sands. It was previously thought that the time at which oil was produced from a rock and migrated as fluid could be deduced from looking at geologic relationships. This is the first time that a direct determination using any isotopic method has be applied to determine age. The research findings are expected to change the way geologists understand the evolution of the basin. It was concluded that while the discovery answers some questions about hydrocarbons, many others remain. However, the presence of an absolute number will help geologists to re-evaluate other knowledge. 1 fig.

  9. The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirl, F.

    1994-01-01

    The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

  10. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crude oil futures price as evidenced by subsequent corrections made over the sample period. The result of the bounds test for a long-term relationship between these two futures prices is inconclusive. The empirical findings further suggest that U.S. futures market traders considered futures prices of gasoline three weeks earlier in determining the current trading price while taking only one week to respond completely to the shock in the crude oil futures price.  The empirical findings of this investigation may address the core elements of the price dynamics of the crude oil and gasoline futures markets and advance inquiry into assessment tools that could manage a very complex market challenge, especially for policy makers in countries with transitional economies in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

  11. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Linghui; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band

  12. An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linghui Tang; Shawkat Hammoudeh

    2002-01-01

    This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band. (author)

  13. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  14. Strategy of Chavez determines oil future of Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widdershoven, C.

    2008-01-01

    The perspective of the oil and gas industry remains unclear as long as the current president, Hugo Chavez, continues to implement his own political ideas. The announcement of another tax increase on high oil revenues of oil companies will significantly weaken the appeal to invest in the oil sector. [mk] [nl

  15. Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

  16. World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azadeh M. Rouhani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The imbalance between energy resource availability, demand, and production capacity, coupled with inherent economic and environmental uncertainties make strategic energy resources planning, management, and decision-making a challenging process. In this paper, a descriptive approach has been taken to synthesize the world’s energy portfolio and the global energy balance outlook in order to provide insights into the role of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC in maintaining “stability” and “balance” of the world’s energy market. This synthesis illustrates that in the absence of stringent policies, i.e., if historical trends of the global energy production and consumption hold into the future, it is unlikely that non-conventional liquid fuels and renewable energy sources will play a dominant role in meeting global energy demand by 2030. This should be a source of major global concern as the world may be unprepared for an ultimate shift to other energy sources when the imminent peak oil production is reached. OPEC’s potential to impact the supply and price of oil could enable this organization to act as a facilitator or a barrier for energy transition policies, and to play a key role in the global energy security through cooperative or non-cooperative strategies. It is argued that, as the global energy portfolio becomes more balanced in the long run, OPEC may change its typical high oil price strategies to drive the market prices to lower equilibria, making alternative energy sources less competitive. Alternatively, OPEC can contribute to a cooperative portfolio management approach to help mitigate the gradually emerging energy crisis and global warming, facilitating a less turbulent energy transition path while there is time.

  17. Increased oil recovery: secondary and tertiary. Application and future prospect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiting, R L

    1978-01-01

    Oil is initially produced using the nature reservoir pressure present, in a process called primary oil recovery. Secondary recovery uses artificial means to increase the natural reservoir pressure; tertiary, or enhanced oil recovery, uses a number of methods to enhance the flow characteristics of the oil. The scope for such techniques to increase the yield from oil fields in the US is estimated; the practicality of their application is shown to be particularly dependent upon pricing, taxation, and other existing policies. 16 references.

  18. Future prospects for palm oil refining and modifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibon Véronique

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Palm oil is rich in minor components that impart unique nutritional properties and need to be preserved. In this context, refining technologies have been improved, with the dual temperature deodorizer, the double condensing unit and the ice condensing system. The DOBI is a good tool to assess quality of the crude palm oil and its ability to be properly refined. Specially refined oils open a market for new high quality products (golden palm oil, red palm oil, white soaps, etc.. Palm oil is a good candidate for the multi-step dry fractionation process, aiming to the production of commodity oils and specialty fats (cocoa butter replacers. New technological developments allow quality and yield improvements. Palm oil and fractions are also valuable feedstock for enzymatic interesterification in which applications are for commodity oil (low-trans margarines and shortenings and for special products (cocoa butter equivalents, infant formulation, ….

  19. Is Estonian oil shale beneficial in the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinsalu, Enno

    1998-01-01

    Oil shale mining production reached its maximum level of 31.35·10 6 tonnes per year in 1980. After the eighties there was a steady decline in mining. The first scientific prognoses of the inescapable decrease in oil shale mining were published in 1988. According to this, the Estonian oil shale industry would vanish in the third decade of the next century. From the beginning of the nineties, the consumption and export of electricity have dropped in Estonia. The minimum level of oil shale mining was 13.5·10 6 tonnes per year. This occurred in 1994/1995. Some increase in consumption of electric power and oil shale began at the end of 1995. Oil shale processing began to increase gradually in 1993. Oil shale is the most important fuel in Estonia today. In 1997, oil shale provided 76% of Estonia's primary energy supply and accounted for 57% of its economic value. Oil shale is the cheapest fuel in Estonia. Nowadays, oil shale provides an essential part of the fuel supply in Estonia because it is considerably cheaper than other fuels. Oil shale costs EEK 12.16 per G J. At the same time, coal costs EEK 23.41 per G J and peat costs EEK 14.80 per G J (year 1997). There are three important customers of oil shale: the electric power company Eesti Energia, the oil processing company Kiviter and the factory Kunda Nordic Cement. In 1995, the power company utilised 81% of the oil shale mass and 77% of its heating value. The state energy policy inhibits increases in the oil shale price even though the mining infrastructure is decaying. Government price policies subside oil shale processing. The energy of oil shale processing is 1.9 times cheaper than the heating value of raw oil shale for power stations. It could be considered as a state subsidisation of oil and cement export at the expense of electricity. The subsidy assigned to oil processing was of EEK 124·10 6 and to the cement industry of EEK 8.4·10 6 in year 1997 (based on heating value). State regulation of prices and

  20. The Middle East: Its role in world oil. A survey of the issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radetski, M.

    1992-01-01

    The importance of the Middle East oil resource base is exceptional, in quantitative as well as economic terms. A review is presented of this resource base, and the economic and political factors associated with it. In 1990 oil from the Middle East accounted for 27% of world output, and accounts for 65% of proven world oil reserves. The viability of OPEC's role in controlling market prices is discussed, and it is proposed that high prices such as those in the early 1980s are unlikely to re-occur, and that control of capacity to keep prices above competitive levels but not high enough to induce large scale expansion outside the region is the rational course of action. Political instability in the Middle East and its destabilizing impact on oil supply is discussed. 12 refs., 2 tabs

  1. Crude operators: the future of the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowell, Andrew.

    1997-01-01

    Technological advances and the maturity of existing oil fields have spurred oil companies to explore for oil and extract it from previously inaccessible or ''frontier'' areas, both offshore and onshore. In many cases, such prospecting and production will have severe environmental impacts and serious social, ethical and cultural consequences. The challenge is not just to halt such exploration and extraction, but to halt oil consumption itself. (author)

  2. The Security Impact of Oil Nationalization: Alternate Futures Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the security impact of oil nationalization, develops and analyzes four energy security scenarios, and suggests options to reduce the potential negative impact of oil nationalization. In addition to the use of oil as a weapon, nationalization of oil can also lead to competition for scarce resources among states, facilitate the funding of terrorists or insurgents, contribute to destabilizing regional arms races, influence intra-state conflict, and sustain antagonistic political agendas.

  3. Electricity generation in the world and Ukraine: Current status and future developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Zvorykin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Electricity generation is the key factor for advances in industry, agriculture, technology and the level of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for country independence. In general, electricity can be generated from: 1 non-renewable energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2 renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and wave power. However, the major energy sources for electricity generation in the world are: 1 thermal power – primarily using coal (~40% and secondarily natural gas (~23%; 2 “large” hydro power plants (~17% and 3 nuclear power from various reactor designs (~11%. The rest of the energy sources for electricity generation is from using oil (~4% and renewable sources such as biomass, wind, geothermal and solar (~5%, which have just visible impact in selected countries. In addition, energy sources, such as wind and solar, and some others, like tidal and wave-power, are intermittent from depending on Mother Nature. And cannot be used alone for industrial electricity generation. Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation in the country. Currently, Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs generate about 45.5% of the total electricity followed with coal generation ‒ 38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants – 5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on four NPPs (15 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs including the largest one in Europe ‒ Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. Two of these 15 reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are ~45-year old several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry

  4. Differing perspectives of major oil firms on future energy developments: An illustrative framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Youngho; Yong Jiayun

    2007-01-01

    This study develops a framework to analyse the perspectives of major oil firms in terms of their perceptions of current energy developments and projections of future energy potentials, and illustrates their views on the possibility of a paradigm shift in fuel use. The three A's themes-availability of resource (AV), applicability of technology (AP) and acceptability by society (AC)-make up the analytical framework. Divergence in oil firms' behaviour and perspectives are captured by the 3-A triangle that illustrates how the four largest oil firms in the world balance their stakes among the three A's. ExxonMobil's position is markedly skewed towards the theme of AV, whilst BP has the most balanced approach among the four. Shell and Total both share a similarly shaped 3-A triangle with more stakes placed on the theme of AP. The results would imply that a paradigm shift in resource use or a full-scale transition to a backstop technology is unlikely in the coming decades

  5. Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shokoohi, Zainab

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. - Research Highlights: →We investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index. →The crude oil price has indirect effect on the world GDP via its impacts on food production index. →The food production index is the source of causation for CPI and GDP is affected by CPI. →The results confirm an indirect effect among oil price, food price principal component.

  6. The future of oil and bioethanol in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, Jose R.; Pacca, Sergio A.; Parente, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    This work compares the return on investments (ROI) of oil versus biofuels in Brazil. Although several renewable energy sources might displace oil, the country's forte is sugarcane biofuels. In our analysis we carry out simplified benefit–cost analyses of producing oil fields, pre-salt oil fields (without and with enhanced oil recovery), a business as the usual ethanol scenario, and a high ethanol scenario. Excluding the ROI from existing oil fields, which is the highest, when the discount rate is 4% or more, the ROI of the high ethanol scenario is greater than that of the ROI of pre-salt oil. Considering a US$40/t CO 2 tax, the high ethanol scenario's ROI is greater than the pre-salt oil's ROI if a discount rate of 2% or more is adopted. Moreover, the high ethanol scenario throughput up to 2070 compares to 97% of the pre-salt oil reserve without EOR, and demands 78% of its investment. Pre-salt oil production declines beyond 2042 when the country might become a net oil importer. In contrast, ethanol production reaches 2.1 million boe per day, and another 0.9 million boe of fossil demand is displaced through bioelectricity, yielding a total of 3 million boe (62% of the country's oil demand). - Highlights: • Cost-benefit analyses of pre-salt and biofuels in Brazil. • Hubbert model applied to pre-salt oil reserves. • Sustainable energy scenarios. • Carbon mitigation accounting based on biofuel scenarios. • Enhanced oil recovery effect on pre-salt oil reserves

  7. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

  8. EIA model documentation: World oil refining logistics demand model,''WORLD'' reference manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    This manual is intended primarily for use as a reference by analysts applying the WORLD model to regional studies. It also provides overview information on WORLD features of potential interest to managers and analysts. Broadly, the manual covers WORLD model features in progressively increasing detail. Section 2 provides an overview of the WORLD model, how it has evolved, what its design goals are, what it produces, and where it can be taken with further enhancements. Section 3 reviews model management covering data sources, managing over-optimization, calibration and seasonality, check-points for case construction and common errors. Section 4 describes in detail the WORLD system, including: data and program systems in overview; details of mainframe and PC program control and files;model generation, size management, debugging and error analysis; use with different optimizers; and reporting and results analysis. Section 5 provides a detailed description of every WORLD model data table, covering model controls, case and technology data. Section 6 goes into the details of WORLD matrix structure. It provides an overview, describes how regional definitions are controlled and defines the naming conventions for-all model rows, columns, right-hand sides, and bounds. It also includes a discussion of the formulation of product blending and specifications in WORLD. Several Appendices supplement the main sections

  9. Natural gas: Governments and oil companies in the Third World

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, A.; Hurst, C.; Mabro, R.

    1988-01-01

    It is asserted that oil companies claim to be generally receptive to gas development proposals; however, the lack of potential markets for gas, problems of foreign exchange convertibility, and lack of a legal framework often hinders their engagement. Governments, on the other hand, need to secure domestic energy supply and, if possible, gain some export earnings or royalties. An extensive discussion on the principles of pricing and fiscal regimes, potential points of disagreement is provided. A course of action is outlined from the managerial point of view to circumvent the most common pitfalls in planning and financing a gas project. Eight very detailed case studies are presented for Argentina, Egypt, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, Tunisia and Thailand

  10. Middle East oil refining in the World context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Gilbert

    1998-01-01

    The building of new refining capacity in the Middle East which will operate in the early part of the next century will be the decision of just a few men. They will include the heads of the state petroleum agencies in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and the CEOs of BP, Exxon and Shell. They will not want for advice from their corporate planners and external consultants, but the key decisions will be in the hands of just a few people. There is nothing new in this decision-making process. The oil consuming countries will react in a similar way to their common environment. In a paper such as this, it is possible to examine the present environment and to extrapolate that environment into the next decade. This is what planners and forecasters are doing everywhere in the petroleum industry. (author)

  11. Virtual learning : oil and gas training in the virtual world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macedo, R.

    2006-07-15

    New software technologies may help to meet increased training demands in the booming oil and gas industry. Although not intended to take the place of hands-on training, a new 3-D simulation program designed by Terris Hill may help new employees demonstrate initial competency. The program outlines the basic training requirements of working on a service rig and was designed to look like many of today's video games. The software was patterned after one cycle of work on a particular job on a service rig. Workers navigate through the 3-D program, which was was built by animators and graphic artists and then tested by experts in the industry. Calgary-based 3D Internet is also developing technology to create training programs for workers in the oil and gas industry. In addition to interactive training programs, the company has constructed simulations, and has recently completed a project for a massive water treatment plant in Saudi Arabia. The company has also created a substation training program that includes voice-overs from actual field employees, as well as interactive knobs and gauges. Simulation training may benefit both employers and employees, as trainees can review procedures repeatedly without the dangers of personal injury or equipment failure. Entry modules can include helpful hints and guidelines while certification modules will grade for behaviour and quality of work performed without system help. However, although simulation technology may help the safety level and proficiency of workers, it represents only a fraction of what workers will need to know before working on an actual service rig. It was concluded that any move to incorporate new simulation training programs within current interactive training programs will need to be driven by industry. 4 figs.

  12. The Future of World Englishes in Language Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, James Dean

    2014-01-01

    This article begins by defining "world Englishes" (WEs) and the related paradigm of inner-, outer-, and expanding-circle English(es). The discussion then turns to the central concerns of the WEs and language testing (LT) communities with regard to how English tests can best be constructed to include various WEs by discussing (a) what…

  13. Planning Oil Prices In The World Market And Preventive Policies In Energy Sector Of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raees Dana, Fariborz

    1999-01-01

    The planning of oil prices in the world can not be analyzed by means of the market-competition theory or the game theory. The current prices seem to be influenced greatly by large energy consuming industries of developed countries, oil producing corporations and cartels, and oil productions outside of OPEC. There is a lack of necessary long term policies and planning so that drastic changes in market prices can be avoided. The goal of this paper is to suggest new policies by means of discussing in following issues: 1.Initiating some form of a financial support for OPEC with the necessary follow up. 2. Utilization of oil income in sectors organized to have the least susceptibility against income loss and the lowest impact on other sectors. 3. Reducing of oil production level in the local and global framework and starting in industrialization process. 4. Replacement of oil with natural gas at a faster rate. 5. improving the oil industry infrastructure for lowering production costs and increasing variety in products in light of country economic policies and occupational strategies. 6. Imposing self-reliance on development of oil-production technology

  14. Mining and oil. Oil shale's contribution to future oil supply; Bergbau und Oel. Der Beitrag des Oelschiefers zur Oelversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Eike von der [Linden Advisory, Dreieich (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    Crude oil contributes in Germany and globally approximately one third to the consumption of primary energies and actually is and in the foreseeable future will be the most important energy source. Recently shale oil as an unconventional oil has gained attention in public discussions. Depending on temperatures oil shale contains either already matured fluid shale oil or immature waxy kerogen. For determination of kerogen containing oil shale and shale oil common definitions for fluid hydrocarbons will be presented. Fluid hydrocarbons (molecular chains > C{sub 5}H{sub 12}) originate from animal substance which had been settled millions of years in sediments on sea- or lakebeds under anaerobic conditions. High pressure and high temperatures effect conversion to hydrocarbons. With sufficient permeability the liquid hydrocarbons migrate from the sediment as the source rock and get assembled in porous rocks under the cover of an impermeable rock strata, in so called entrapment structures. In case there is no impermeable rock strate the hydrocarbons will diffuse into the atmosphere. The hydrocarbons in entrapment structures are called conventional oil and are extracted by drilling wells. The extractable oil as part of the oil in place depends on the viscosity of the oil, the permeability of the host rock and applied exploitation methods which can affect pressure, viscosity and permeability. The exploitation achieves 30 to 50% of the oil in place. When the source rock consisting of strata hundreds of meters thick is not sufficiently permeable the matured hydrocarbons remain at its place of origination. These hydrocarbons are called shale oil and belong to the unconventional oil resources. For exploitation of shale oil by wells the source rock must be treated by intensive energy input, amongst others, by fracking which creates artificial permeability and by pressure which affects migration of the hydrocarbons to the well. The exploitation methods for shale oil do not

  15. Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman

    2009-01-01

    For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

  16. Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman [School of Chemical Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

    2009-08-15

    For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

  17. Brave New Worlds? The Once and Future Information Ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ess, Charles

    2010-01-01

    in both Western and Eastern countries, and correlative shifts from the communication technologies of literacy and print to a “secondary orality.” These consequences in turn imply that current and future information ethics should focus on developing a global but pluralistic virtue ethics - one that may......I highlight several aspects of current and future developments of the internet, in order to draw from these in turn specific consequences of particular significance for the ongoing development and expansion of information ethics. These consequences include changing conceptions of self and privacy...

  18. Decrease in oil prices: which consequences for the World economy and for France?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camatte, Hadrien; Darmet-Cucchiarini, Maxime; Gillet, Thomas; Masson, Emmanuelle; Meslin, Olivier; Padieu, Ysaline; Tavin, Alexandre

    2016-04-01

    Based of various statistics, this public publication first describes that, since summer 2014, oil price has been sharply decreasing (70 per cent) and keeping on decreasing due to a still abundant supply (with non conventional oil in the USA, and a still high production by OPEC countries) and a rather disappointing demand. It also outlines that production commitments stated by producers are still uncertain. This paper then notices that this oil price decrease could remain positive for World economy, but that some short term factors still impair these effects. This positive effect is indeed slow to appear in importing countries. Negative effects in exporting countries are emphasized by local economic policies. Moreover, there could be a transmission of this oil price decrease to the financial sphere, oil price decrease makes monetary policy more complex, and the USA are increasingly exposed to the energy sector activity. The third part shows that oil prices have positive effects on the French economy. They favour a wealth transfer from the rest of the world to the French economy, positively impacts companies margins and household purchase power on the short and medium terms, induces external effects as it also affects trade partners, and could result in an activity gain in the finance bill

  19. Telehealth in the developing world: current status and future prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott RE

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Richard E Scott,1,2 Maurice Mars11Department of TeleHealth, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; 2NT Consulting - Global e-Health Inc., Calgary, AB, CanadaAbstract: In a setting of constant change and confusing terminology, telehealth continues to gain ground in both developed and developing countries within the overarching milieu of e-health. Evidence shows telehealth has been used in essentially all countries of the world, but is embedded in few. Uses and needs of telehealth vary between the developed and developing world; the latter struggles with both communicable diseases and noncommunicable diseases, and with very few resources. Common clinical applications include teleconsultation, telecardiology (transmission of ECGs, teleradiology, and teledermatology. Many telehealth projects exist throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and Africa, but there is little published evidence and only isolated examples of sustained programs, although several sustained humanitarian networks exist. Application of mobile solutions (m-health is on the rise in many developing countries. Telehealth is still not integrated into existing health care systems globally. Reasons vary: lack of proven large-scale operations, poor evidence base, inadequate implementation, lack of attention to the “soft side” of implementation (readiness, change management, and many others. For the developing world, reasons can be more pragmatic, including limited resources, unreliable power, poor connectivity, and high cost for the poverty stricken – those most in need. Telehealth is poised to improve health and health care in the developing world, driven by both altruistic and profit motives. But to have the desired effect, telehealth must address very specific and evidence-based health “needs” of each facility, region, or country; the shortage of health workers and specialist services; and the required skills upgrading and training

  20. Towards a new world: The contributions of nuclear energy to a sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R. B.; Miller, A. I.; Fehrenbach, P. J.; Kuran, S.; Tregunno, D.; Suppiah, S.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last few years, the world has seen growing concern about the sustainability of the Planet when supplying increasing energy use. The major issues are: increased energy prices in the world markets; growing energy demand in emerging economies; security and stability of oil and gas supply; potentially adverse climate change due to carbon-based emissions; and the need to deploy economic, sustainable and reliable alternates. Large undefined 'wedges' of alternate energy technologies are needed. In light of these major difficulties, there is renewed interest and need for a greater role for nuclear energy as a safe, sustainable and economic energy contributor. The shift has been, from being viewed by some as politically discounted, to being accepted as absolutely globally essential. We have carefully considered, and systematically, extensively and technically analyzed the contributions that nuclear energy can and should make to a globally sustainable energy future. These include restraining emissions, providing safe and secure power, operating synergistically with other sources, and being both socially and fiscally attractive. Therefore, we quantify in this paper the major contributions: a) The reduction in climate change potential and the global impact of future nuclear energy deployment through emissions reduction, using established analysis tools which varying the plausible future penetration and scale of nuclear energy. b) The minimization of economic costs and the maximization of global benefits, including investment requirements, carbon price implications, competitive market penetration, and effect of variable daily pricing. c) The introduction of fuel switching, including base-load nuclear energy synergistically enabling both hydrogen production and the introduction of significant wind power. d) The management and reduction of waste streams, utilizing intelligent designs and fuel cycles that optimize fuel resource use and minimize emissions, waste disposal

  1. The Future Revisited: Can Global Learning Still Save the World?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hook, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a twelve-year review of my "OJDLA" article ("Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration," University of West Georgia) on the future of global learning, and updates related to issues such as societal need, technologies, course design, administration affairs, faculty support, and student service.

  2. A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianliang; Feng Lianyong; Zhao Lin; Snowden, Simon; Wang Xu

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers. - Highlights: ► Hubbert model and Generalized Weng model are introduced and compared in this article. ► We conclude each model's characteristic and scopes and conditions of applicable. ► We get the same peak production and time of world's oil by applying two models. ► Multicyclic Generalized Weng model is proven slightly better than Hubbert model.

  3. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  4. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  5. Oil and Gas in the Netherlands - Is there a future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herber, R.; de Jager, J.

    The impact of oil and, in particular, gas fields discovered in the Dutch subsurface has been very significant. However, 50 years after the discovery of the giant Groningen gas field the Netherlands has become very mature for exploration of oil and gas, and the gas volume left to be discovered in

  6. Future oil supply to the Northeast United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronheim, H.

    1976-06-01

    The Northeast consumed some 4.6 million bbls/day of petroleum products in 1972. Nearly 63 percent of that supply was of foreign origin, making the Northeast the single largest oil-importing region in the nation. The remainder of its supply originated mainly in states on the Gulf of Mexico. The phasing out of coal as a major utility boiler fuel and curtailment of natural gas sales to the Northeast have led to the rapid increase in the use of petroleum products. Nationwide oil production reached a peak of 11.3 million bbls/day in 1970 and has been declining yearly ever since. The Northeast in particular has led the movement to foreign imports because of its coastal location, its distance from domestic sources, the competitive pricing of foreign oils, and because of environmental considerations. Under various assumptions of total U.S. reserves of oil (discovered and undiscovered) coupled to alternate schedules of national resource development, projections of crude oil production were made for the years 1985 and 2000. The projections indicate that even under optimistic conditions crude oil production will be declining in the post-1985 period, if not earlier. The scenarios consistently indicate that the Northeast's regional share will be heavily constrained by 1985, and rapidly declining thereafter. On the other hand, production of oil worldwide will concentrate further in the hands of the Arab OPEC nations who are likely to exercise growing control over pricing and the international supply of crude oil.

  7. The future of the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Changes are under way that are moving the oil and gas industry in Norway toward the creation of global energy companies in a global energy market. According to the author, three key forces are creating the changes of oil and gas companies comprising a global market for energy, growing demand - ample supply, and the end-user. 5 figs

  8. Third-world development: urbanizing for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcilwaine, C

    1997-01-01

    This article reviews some issues reflected in the 1996 UN Habitat II agenda and recent research on urbanization. The themes of the 1996 Habitat conference were urban development, urban poverty, and governance, civil society, and social capital. It is expected that over 50% of total world population will live in cities in the year 2000. Cities are viewed both as engines of economic growth and centers of severe economic, environmental, and social problems. There is some disagreement about whether cities are rational economic structures or what the World Bank's urban agenda is and its relationship with macroeconomic policy. Discussions of global urban issues are criticized for their neglect of issues of equity and poverty, cultural diversity, and identity and representation. Habitat II also stressed urban sustainability. There is growing recognition that urban management involves more than the "Brown Agenda" of environmental and physical aspects of urban growth. Recent studies identify how politics and power affect people's access to basic urban services. Urban economic activity can also contribute to environmental problems. Urban growth affects the provision of health services. Although there is not a consensus on the role of cities in expanding economic and social development and the best management practices, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that urban processes are varied throughout the developing world. The links between urban and rural areas differentiate cities and expose the need to understand the role of intermediate urban areas surrounding and between larger cities. Poverty has become increasingly urbanized, but the extent of poverty is unknown. Habitat II was an unprecedented effort to engage nongovernment groups, local government staff, trade unions, and the private sector and to emphasize community participation. Networks of trust and reciprocity are key to solving poverty, inequality, and disempowerment problems.

  9. The energy future in the world at the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frot, J.

    2006-04-01

    After a presentation of the world context of the energy consumption (the growth, the petroleum and the natural gas last, the greenhouse effect gases impacts on the climate), and the today research and development domains in the energy sector (petroleum, gas, generation IV nuclear reactors, carbon sequestration, renewable energies, hydrogen, energy storage), the author examines, using 4 scenario, the margins of action, the energy efficiency, the Gross Domestic Product de-materialization and the costs. Then he discusses the hopes and problems in the domains of the transports and the carbon sequestration. A special attention is devoted to the energy efficiency importance. (A.L.B.)

  10. Preparing Indico for the Future and the World

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    The presentation will focus on showing what we expect to be Indico's evolution over the next couple of years as the tool of choice for collaboration in HEP, not only feature-wise, but also in terms of technology and service. It will demonstrate how Indico went from a niche conference organization application to being CERN's own event organization tool and later to a collaboration platform that is used in over 100 other institutions world wide, and how we intend to bring it to a whole new level - that of a global service available to the scientific community as a whole.

  11. World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, Noureddine

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

  12. Consuming the world's energy: Update series. Energy efficiency trends in oil countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This issue of Energy Detente addresses energy efficiency in selected oil producing countries over time and compare the varying effects of important crude oil price changes. As economies around the world heighten their benefits from conservation and efficient use of energy, oil producers will be crucial examples not only for their own sakes, but for consuming countries dependent upon their exports. In this sense, their potential for leadership and vision seems greater than ever. Specifically, 6 oil-exporting countries are featured: Australia, Kuwait, Indonesia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of February 21, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, February, 1992 edition

  13. World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

  14. Future of the Book? Challenge of the Digital World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pledger, Pat

    2010-01-01

    In the last ten years there has been much speculation about the role of e-books and e-book readers. This paper will look at the impact of e-book readers on publishing and reading, the types of e-book readers, their advantages and disadvantages. Some ideas for future e-books and e-book readers and their use in the library and classroom will be…

  15. The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Yurievich Glazyev

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions. These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion. These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to

  16. The impact of the Gulf crisis on world oil and OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mabro, R.

    1994-01-01

    The 1990-91 Gulf conflict involved oil as a major factor or significant objective from the viewpoint of all countries involved. Low oil prices, favored by Kuwait, limited Iraqi revenues. Iraq pressed the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to raise oil prices, leading to tensions with Kuwait, with which Iraq also had long-standing territorial claims. The desire to protect access to the world's largest oil supplies was a factor in the USA's rapid reaction to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The initial response was an embargo on exports from Iraq and occupied Kuwait; this removed from the world oil market an estimated 4.5-5 million bbl/d. Although the spot price of oil rose to $27/bbl two weeks after the invasion, the market had significant supply-side flexibility. Major increases in output from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates almost entirely compensated for the lost production, stopping the upward movement of oil prices. These peaked in September 1990, stabilized, and fell dramatically in January 1991. The fall was helped by speculator selloffs, the perception that Iraq would soon be defeated under the recently begun air attacks, and the USA decision to sell from its strategic reserves. One effect of the crisis was a disturbance of output distribution among OPEC members; the Saudis and Emirates were unwillling to give up higher output levels to accommodate the return of Kuwait, thus making OPEC production quotas more difficult to achieve. Another effect was an increase in the political dependence of the Arab Gulf countries on the Western powers, particularly the USA, as the only credible guarantor of regional security. This further inhibits moves by OPEC to control oil prices or production

  17. Proceedings of the World Heavy Oil Congress : unconventional oil challenging conventional expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    This international technical and business conference provided a forum to promote heavy oil technology and foster relationships between supply and demand countries. The interactive forum between global industry professionals addressed technological, strategic and environmental challenges facing the unconventional oil industry, including seeking innovative, low cost technologies, driving high costs down; educating and leading the workforce to maintain high standards of production; and ensuring that the footprint on the land is as light as possible. It emphasized that as demand for the uses of heavy oil grows, so does the responsibility of managing sustainability not just from an environmental and social perspective, but also with respect to supply, including manpower and infrastructure. The technical conference featured sessions on advanced and enhanced processes; combustion processes; drilling and completions; geology and reservoir; heavy oil exploitation and development; mining, extraction and transportation; non thermal processes; production and operations; reservoir monitoring; SAGD processes; sustainable development; thermal processes; and, upgrading technology. All 124 presentations from the technical conference were catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  18. World oil flow steady in 1992; stable market ahead for 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    World crude oil production in 1992 was virtually unchanged from 1991. Production last year averaged 59.96 million b/d, up only 17,000 b/d from 1991. Substantial production declines in the C.I.S. and U.S. were offset by increases among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a number of other countries outside the OPEC sphere. Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show world demand for petroleum products moved up 300,000 b/d to 66.9 million b/d. This included an addition to stocks of an estimated 1000,000 b/d. IEA predicts world demand will continue to rise in 1993 and OPEC output will advance to meet this higher level. Even though OPEC production is expected to be up for the year, seasonal swings in demand can cause price fluctuations. The paper describes OPEC production, non-OPEC production, oil prices, the world oil supply, Russian's decline, world demand, and the outlook for 1993

  19. The heavy oil refiners needs in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauer, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    In the 1970s oil crisis, the high price differential that developed between heavy and light crude led to an expansion in heavy crude processing geared to producing light oil products. The subsequent collapse in prices meant that heavy crudes with low netbacks were shut in, heavy crude refining capacity exceeded the restrained production of heavy crudes, and refineries were operating at losses. However, the low prices for oil rekindled demand and spare production capacity has been absorbed. The crude oil price is forecast to rise to ca $27/bbl by the late 1990s, which is favorable for heavy crude oil production. Nevertheless, investments in heavy crude production are exposed to a high degree of risk. A strategy for dealing with this risk is to integrate into downstream, which makes more sense for heavy crude producers than for conventional producers. On the other hand, such integration is capital-intensive, and light oils will likely be favored in crude oil production developments for the next several years. Low prices for natural gas will make it hard to find markets for residual fuel made from heavy crudes. 8 figs

  20. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The OECD's world energy outlook analyses projected trends in energy damnd and supply for the OECD area and other major global regions to 1985. It provides a brief discussion of trends after 1985. OECD energy consumption is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. Conservation effects will increase efficiency of energy use per unit of economic growth. All domestic energy supplies in the OECD are projected to expand faster than in the past. The relative share of non-fossil energy sources in total production will be almost doubled. Assuming moderate economic growth, existing energy policies and a constnat real price for oil, the outlook's reference case projects OECD oil import at 35 million barrels a day by 1985. This level of import demand, when combined with the import needs of other oil importing areas, could approach the limit of availability of world oil supplies and as a result cause severe disequilibrium in world energy markets. The outlook indicates such severe disruption can be avoided by action to improve the world energy supply and demand balance without impeding economic growth objectives. Strong measures will be required both to conserve energy and to develop new energy supplies. The biggest increment to the OECD's energy supply by 1985 is expected to come from nuclear power. This substantial nuclear contribution will be inevitable and irreplaceable. As a result urgent solutions to problems concerning safety, availability of fuel cycle services, the environment, cost escalation and construction delays will be required

  1. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  2. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  3. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  4. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  5. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

  6. Oil sands: Strategies for future development - An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildirim, E.

    1995-01-01

    The Alberta Chamber of Resources developed a Task Force in 1993 to promote oil sands development, and to identify and publicize the social and economic benefits of oil sands operations. Formation, mission of the National Task Force, impediments and opportunities for development were summarized. Attributes of oil sands, benefits of their development, impediments to development, strategic development and potential growth scenarios were discussed. Cooperation between government and industry was deemed essential. Recommendations included development of a bitumen pipeline network, provision of incentives to encourage development, encouragement of risk and reward sharing between bitumen producers and up graders, and diversification of products and by-products. 7 figs., 12 refs

  7. World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dargay, Joyce M. [Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Gately, Dermot [Dept. of Economics, New York University, 19W. 4 St., New York, NY 10012 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project. (author)

  8. Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata K.

    2018-02-01

    This article explores the changing interdependence between crude oil and world food prices at varying time scales using detrended cross correlation analysis that would answer whether the interdependence (if any) differed significantly between pre and post-crisis period. Unlike the previous studies that exogenously imposed break dates for dividing the time series into sub-samples, we tested whether the mean of the crude oil price changed over time to find evidence for structural changes in the crude oil price series and endogenously determine three break dates with minimum Bayesian information criterion scores. Accordingly, we divided the entire study period in four sample periods - January 1990 to October 1999, November 1999 to February 2005, March 2005 to September 2010, and October 2010 to July 2016, where the third sample period coincided with the period of food crisis and enabled us to compare the fuel-food interdependence across pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results of the detrended cross correlation analysis extended corroborative evidence for increasing positive interdependence between the crude oil price and world food price index along with its sub-categories, namely dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. The article ends with the implications of these results in the domain of food policy and the financial sector.

  9. Past, Present, and Future Production of Bio-oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steele, Philip; Yu, Fei; Gajjela, Sanjeev

    2009-04-01

    Bio-oil is a liquid product produced by fast pyrol-ysis of biomass. The fast pyrolysis is performed by heating the biomass rapidly (2 sec) at temperatures ranging from 350 to 650 oC. The vapors produced by this rapid heating are then condensed to produce a dark brown water-based emulsion composed of frag-ments of the original hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin molecules contained in the biomass. Yields range from 60 to 75% based on the feedstock type and the pyrolysis reactor employed. The bio-oil pro-duced by this process has a number of negative prop-erties that are produced mainly by the high oxygen content (40 to 50%) contributed by that contained in water (25 to 30% of total mass) and oxygenated compounds. Each bio-oil contains hundreds of chemi-cal compounds. The chemical composition of bio-oil renders it a very recalcitrant chemical compound. To date, the difficulties in utilizing bio-oil have limited its commercial development to the production of liq-uid smoke as food flavoring. Practitioners have at-tempted to utilize raw bio-oil as a fuel; they have also applied many techniques to upgrade bio-oil to a fuel. Attempts to utilize raw bio-oil as a combustion engine fuel have resulted in engine or turbine dam-age; however, Stirling engines have been shown to successfully combust raw bio-oil without damage. Utilization of raw bio-oil as a boiler fuel has met with more success and an ASTM standard has recently been released describing bio-oil characteristics in relation to assigned fuel grades. However, commercialization has been slow to follow and no reports of distribution of these bio-oil boiler fuels have been reported. Co-feeding raw bio-oil with coal has been successfully performed but no current power generation facilities are following this practice. Upgrading of bio-oils to hydrocarbons via hydroprocessing is being performed by several organizations. Currently, limited catalyst life is the obstacle to commercialization of this tech-nology. Researchers

  10. REGULARITIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOLLAR IN RUSSIA ON THE WORLD PRICE OF OIL BRENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Mazurkin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The inverse influence of the dollar in Russia as a major regional economies oil exporters, on the formation of world prices of Brent crude oil. It is shown that for the period from 31.01.2006 on 25.08.2015 this influence is characterized by a model with several wave functions, however, this model has received only average adequacy. With a much smaller error complex is formed and breaking explicitly the nonlinear function in stages three levels of behavior. The selection of stages and levels is on break, so within each stage are considered smooth algebraic functions in the form of asymmetric wavelet signals.

  11. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  12. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  13. The world energy demand in 2005: confirmed increase in energy consumptions, despite soaring crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2006-01-01

    The world energy demand growth remains strong: 2004 experienced the highest growth since 19987, and brent prices had moderate impact in 2005: Very strong rise of energy consumptions despite high oil prices, Economic situation still favorable, Evolutions principally due to China. 2005 world energy consumption: 11,4 Gtoe: Asia accounts for 35% of the world energy consumption, China's weight (15%) continues to increase by one point every year (+5 points since 2000). Asia increases its pressure on the world energy growth in 2005: China accounts for almost half of the world energy consumption increase in 2005, the whole Asia accounts for 70%; The European consumption growth represents less than 5% of China's Growth; The American energy consumption decreases for the first time. 2005 world consumption by energy: With an increasing market share by 0,7 points, coal penetration increases; The oil market has lost 0,4 point, with an accelerating relative decrease; The relative weight of gas remains stable, with 21%. Energy efficiency and energy intensity of GDP: Slow-down of the world energy intensity decrease since 2001, whereas the economic growth is faster, due to changes in trends in China (increase in the recent years). Increase less sharp in China in 2005 (price effect). Energy intensity trends of GDP: Fast decrease in CIS since the recovery of the economic growth; Slow-down of the decrease in EU since 2000 and recovery in 2005 whereas the decrease has accelerated in the USA. Since 2000, the energy consumption increases less rapidly than the GDP almost everywhere, except for the Middle East. Projections until 2020: China and India could represent one third of the world energy growth, the whole of Asia more than 50%; Growth prospects for energy demand are low in the EU and CIS; America would account for 20% of the world energy growth (8% USA); In the rest of the world, high growth in Africa and in the Middle East. Gas could cover more than 40% of the world energy

  14. A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

    2015-01-01

    We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

  15. United States foreign oil policy since World War 1 : for profits and security. 2 ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randall, S.J.

    2005-07-01

    This book provided a historical context for United States global oil politics, with a focus on the goals, accomplishments and challenges of United States foreign oil policy, as well as on the relationship between the state and private sectors. This second edition has integrated developments in global politics since the end of the Cold War. It was suggested that many factors have provided the context for oil policy formation: a succession of crises in Iran since the 1950s; 2 wars in Iraq; U.S. intervention in Afghanistan; the threat of international terrorism since September 11, 2001; ongoing conflicts between Israel and the Arab nations in the Middle East; political instability in Saudi Arabia and in Venezuela and the trend towards trade and investment liberalization in Latin America in the 1990s. In addition, the emergence of oil sands reserves in Canada and other sources of non-conventional oil were discussed. Nationalism and oil policies in the Depression and World War 2 were examined. The structure of decision-making in oil policies was examined. Domestic and offshore resources were reviewed, and an outline of international agreements and relationships was presented. Issues concerning OPEC countries and the Iranian Revolution were examined. It was concluded that the United States has become more and not less vulnerable, despite its military strength. The author suggested that the main policy challenge to the United States may well be the tension between its commitment to Israel and its determination to avoid alienating the Arab oil-producing states. refs., tabs., figs.

  16. Jojoba oil: A state of the art review and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sánchez, Marcos; Avhad, Mangesh R.; Marchetti, Jorge M.; Martínez, Mercedes; Aracil, José

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Jojoba oil is a unique oil formed by long esters instead of triglycerides. • Jojoba cake is gaining interest because of the extraction of valuable chemicals. • Jojoba oil heterogeneous-catalyzed methanolysis makes the process more profitable. - Abstract: Jojoba oil, which is derived from the extraction of Jojoba seed, has a peculiar molecular structure in comparison with the rest of conventional oils. Jojoba oil is formed by long monounsaturated esters whereas the rest of the oils are usually composed by triglycerides. This unconventional structure confers to Jojoba oil unique properties and characteristics that are very valuable for fine chemical industry and for the production of pharmaceuticals. In addition, Jojoba oil can be an excellent source of fatty acid alkyl esters or biodiesel after the transesterification process and the purification steps. This review presents general information about the production of Jojoba oil and its derivatives, its composition, oil extraction process and the applications of this oil when it is used directly or after chemical transformation as well as the possible purposes of Jojoba meal after extraction. In addition, this paper contemplates the advantages and disadvantages of the use of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts for the Jojoba oil transesterification as well as different methods to obtain long monounsaturated alcohols, which have pharmaceutical applications, after being separated from biodiesel. The properties of the products derived from the transesterification of Jojoba oil are broadly discussed. Moreover, this review suggests future research opportunities such as a possible biorefinery using Jojoba oil as main raw material, supercritical methods and simultaneous extraction/reaction process which are fully discussed.

  17. The future of nuclear power: A world-wide perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aktar, Ismail

    This study analyzes the future of commercial nuclear electric generation worldwide using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) concept. The Tobit panel data estimation technique is applied to analyze the data between 1980 and 1998 for 105 countries. EKC assumes that low-income countries increase their nuclear reliance in total electric production whereas high-income countries decrease their nuclear reliance. Hence, we expect that high-income countries should shut down existing nuclear reactors and/or not build any new ones. We encounter two reasons for shutdowns: economic or political/environmental concerns. To distinguish these two effects, reasons for shut down are also investigated by using the Hazard Model technique. Hence, the load factor of a reactor is used as an approximation for economic reason to shut down the reactor. If a shut downed reactor had high load factor, this could be attributable to political/environmental concern or else economic concern. The only countries with nuclear power are considered in this model. The two data sets are created. In the first data set, the single entry for each reactor is created as of 1998 whereas in the second data set, the multiple entries are created for each reactor beginning from 1980 to 1998. The dependent variable takes 1 if operational or zero if shut downed. The empirical findings provide strong evidence for EKC relationship for commercial nuclear electric generation. Furthermore, higher natural resources suggest alternative electric generation methods rather than nuclear power. Economic index as an institutional variable suggests higher the economic freedom, lower the nuclear electric generation as expected. This model does not support the idea to cut the carbon dioxide emission via increasing nuclear share. The Hazard Model findings suggest that higher the load factor is, less likely the reactor will shut down. However, if it is still permanently closed downed, then this could be attributable to political

  18. The need for nuclear power. Viewpoint on the world's challenging energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, R.; Beller, D.

    2000-01-01

    To meet the world's growing need for energy, the Royal Society and Royal Academy report proposes 'the formation of an international body for energy research and development, funded by contributions from individual nations on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or total national energy consumption'. The body would be 'a funding agency supporting research, development and demonstrators elsewhere, not a research center itself'. Its budget might build to an annual level of some $25 billion, 'roughly 1% of the total global energy budget'. If it truly wants to develop efficient and responsible energy supplies, such a body should focus on the nuclear option, on establishing a secure international nuclear-fuel storage and reprocessing system, and on providing expertise for siting, financing, and licensing modular nuclear power systems to developing nations. According to authors, who study the dynamics of energy technologies, 'the share of energy supplied by electricity is growing rapidly in most countries and worldwide'. Throughout history, humankind has gradually decarbonized its dominant fuels, moving steadily away from the more polluting, carbon-rich sources. Thus the world has gone from coal (which has one hydrogen atom per carbon atom and was dominant from 1880 to 1950) to oil (with two hydrogens per carbon, dominant from 1950 to today). Natural gas (four hydrogens per carbon) is steadily increasing its market share. But nuclear fission produces no carbon at all. Physical reality - not arguments about corporate greed, hypothetical risks, radiation exposure, or waste disposal - ought to inform decisions vital to the future of the world. Because diversity and redundancy are important for safety and security, renewable energy sources ought to retain a place in the energy economy of the century to come. But nuclear power should be central. Despite its outstanding record, it has instead been relegated by its opponents to the same twilight zone of contentious

  19. Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

  20. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  1. Oil and Beyond Expanding British Imperial Aspirations, Emerging Oil Capitalism, and the Challenge of Social Questions in the First World War

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atabaki, Touraj; Ehsani, Kaveh; Bley, Helmut; Kremers, Anorthe

    2014-01-01

    With the onset of the First World War, the British state crafted a new strategy of shifting its industry, military and navel units from consuming coal to oil energy. This transition effectively turned Persian oil into a strategic military as well as economic resource of fundamental importance to the

  2. Soviet woes, Middle East crisis cut first half world crude oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Persian Gulf crisis and the faltering Soviet oil industry spawned a 2.8% dive in world oil production during first half 1991 compared with the same period a year ago. Total world flow averaged 59.781 million b/d, down 1.728 million b/d from first half 1990. First half Soviet production fell 1.13 million b/d from a year ago to 10.6 million b/d. Production among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the first half averaged 22.927 million b/d, down 1.099 million b/d. Non-OPEC production averaged 36.854 million b/d, down from the 1990 first half average of 37.483 million b/d. OPEC's share of total world production fell to 38.4% for first half 1991 from 39.1% for first half last year. In 1979 OPEC production was 49.1% of total world production. OPEC's share dropped to 29.9% of the world total in 1985 and had been moving back up since then. OPEC set new production quotas totaling 22.31 million b/d, reflecting the curtailment of production from Kuwait and Iraq. Production in the first half of 1991 was 2.8% above quota

  3. Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

    2016-01-01

    Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

  4. The world oil market is not one great pool: A reply to Rodriguez and Williams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.J.

    1993-01-01

    In a paper by Rodriguez and Williams (Energy Studies Review, 1993), the case for a single-pool world oil market is put forward. Criticisms of the assumptions and conclusions are offered. To counter the paper's assumption that antitrust is the relevant metric for measuring the extent of geographic markets, it is argued that for energy security policy decisions, it is the economic market which matters. The paper does show that the world oil market is indeed unified in the long run, but this is not relevant to the short term, the relevant time-frame for energy security decisions. The paper's choice of spot market data for its cointegration analysis is also criticized by using several examples of pricing decisions that would not make sense in a unified world market but which do make sense in a regionalized market. It is also unclear how representative spot prices are of the oil market. Finally, the conclusions of the paper that favor policies focusing on secure vs insecure import sources and supplier diversification are seen as unsupported by the paper's statistical findings. 15 refs

  5. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  6. The long-term supply/demand trend of world energy and the current oil situation in the Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Hiroyuki

    1996-01-01

    Total world primary energy consumption excluding the FSU increased by 2.9% in 1995, which is somewhat above the 10 year average rate of 2.4%. This reflected strong economic growth in most parts of the world. The increase in demand confirmed the recovery of the link between the economic growth and consumption of primary energy, which broke down in the period of oil crises. Oil demand in the Asian Emerging Market Economies has continued to be very strong. Oil demand has doubled in a decade in this region and is now one sixth of world consumption. Malaysia was the fastest growing oil market in the world in 1995 at 15.5%. In volume terms, S. Korea grew the most in the world by 170,000 b/d, closely followed by China and India. Because of the fast growing oil demand, many energy economists expect a tight supply situation in the Asian oil market in the early 21st Century. However, recent technological developments would be able to supply crude oil appropriate for an increase in oil demand. (author)

  7. Future industrialization of the world and the necessity of nuclear power; how limited are resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, J.

    1996-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist. Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers i have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper i elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. 18 refs. 3 figs. 1 tabs

  8. World crude oil prices and the North Sea after the Gulf conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, A.

    1992-01-01

    A large computerised financial model has been developed to simulate future activity in the United Kingdom continental shelf. Primary inputs into the model include all the publicly available information on currently producing fields relating to their historic and expected production rates, investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. From a variety of sources information has also been gathered on all new discoveries which have not yet been developed or even fully appraised in some cases. Estimates were made of the time periods at which such fields would be ready for development work and production to commence. For these future fields estimates were made of the likely investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. In making such calculations only limited technological progress was assumed. The bank of future fields is also conservative as it does not include any new discoveries from further exploration successes. Key inputs into the financial model are future oil and gas price scenarios. In this study, three price scenarios have been chosen for investigation - a base case, a high price case and a low price case. From the analysis, the possible consequences of a very modest real growth in oil and gas prices on the development of the very large numbers of discovered, but as yet undeveloped, oil and gas fields in the United Kingdom continental shelf are presented. (author)

  9. The future of the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, G.

    1998-01-01

    A review of the state of the Canadian oil and gas industry for 1997 was presented. In 1997, capital investment levels were at $19 billion with oil, gas and gas by-products production valued at $31 billion. Exports were strong and set to grow further. As far as the Yukon is concerned, the availability of increased incentives and the announcement of a common royalty regime for the Territory have helped to increase interest by outside capital. Ongoing efforts are being made to include First Nations communities in the public consultation processes, and to ensure significant benefits to First Nation people from any development. The industry's initiatives and approaches to exploration, development and production were outlined. Environmental initiatives to protect the wilderness, and the existing ecosystem were described with examples from Alberta (Special Places 2000) and from British Columbia (BC Northern Rockies (Muskwa-Kechika; marine protected areas). 1 fig

  10. Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

  11. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  12. Our energy future is not set in stone. How can the demand for oil and gas in 2035 be met?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlez, Philippe A.

    2014-01-01

    If technology is an undeniable catalyst for progress, then energy is its inevitable basic food. It is no coincidence that since the industrial revolution, economic growth has been fuelled first by coal, then by oil and gas. Although energy intensity reserves are still sizeable in emerging economies and the technological catalyst can partially dematerialise growth, it is unrealistic to separate growth from its basic food. And, even if the 'fossil energies share' (oil/gas/coal) will lose a few percent to nuclear and renewable energies over the next decades, all the indicators point to a world mix in which the fossil energy share will still top 75% by 2035. Driven by growth in emerging countries, the demand for oil and gas will continue to grow steadily. Even if there are enough oil and gas reserves to see us through the next three decades, will the industry be able to exploit and produce new resources that are increasingly complex to develop at a sufficient rate and which are often located in politically unstable countries? Not to mention the added challenge of the growing numbers of stakeholders who are increasingly insistent on industrial safety, environment and societal issues? In particular, will non-conventional resources, whose production growth could defer the oil and gas peaks by several decades, be able to withstand political and environmental lobbies? The evolution of oil and gas landscape over the past few years reveals a disturbing increase in the time required to develop large new fields and an accelerated decline of the production base due to the ageing of most of the mature-field facilities. This book aims to analyze all the critical factors (technical, political, economic, social and human) that could potentially accelerate or delay the maintenance and redevelopment of mature producing fields as well as the discovery and development of new conventional and unconventional resources. Insofar as in 2035, oil and gas still account for more than half of

  13. Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabre, S.

    1991-01-01

    Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

  14. A look at one of the world`s largest apron feeder drives - Alberta Oil Sands Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, O. [Hagglunds Drives Canada Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    1999-10-01

    Various types of equipment to transport tar sands to processing plants are discussed, with special attention to the advantages of hydraulic direct drives over conventional electro-mechanical drives. A hydraulic direct drive such as the Hagglund Drive has exceptional starting torque capacity due to the high torque capability of the hydraulic motor. As such, it can be particularly useful in applications where shock loads occur with some frequency, or where many starts and stops are needed. Application of the Hagglund drive to power one of the world`s largest apron feeders in the Alberta Oil Sands is described as an illustration of the exceptional reliability, productivity and performance of this equipment. It has about one five-hundredth of the inertia of an equivalent high speed drive with gear reducer, a feature which is particularly significant in the case of feeders which are known to suffer much downtime due to chain related problems. These types of drives have also been used to great advantage in the process industries like pulp and paper, chemical, rubber and plastics, recycling and steel. 1 tab., 1 fig.

  15. A comprehensive guide of remediation technologies for oil contaminated soil - Present works and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Mee Wei; Lau, Ee Von; Poh, Phaik Eong

    2016-08-15

    Oil spills result in negative impacts on the environment, economy and society. Due to tidal and waves actions, the oil spillage affects the shorelines by adhering to the soil, making it difficult for immediate cleaning of the soil. As shoreline clean-up is the most costly component of a response operation, there is a need for effective oil remediation technologies. This paper provides a review on the remediation technologies for soil contaminated with various types of oil, including diesel, crude oil, petroleum, lubricating oil, bitumen and bunker oil. The methods discussed include solvent extraction, bioremediation, phytoremediation, chemical oxidation, electrokinetic remediation, thermal technologies, ultrasonication, flotation and integrated remediation technologies. Each of these technologies was discussed, and associated with their advantages, disadvantages, advancements and future work in detail. Nonetheless, it is important to note that no single remediation technology is considered the best solution for the remediation of oil contaminated soil. This review provides a comprehensive literature on the various remediation technologies studied in the removal of different oil types from soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Recent and future developments of the oil industry in Russian Federation and more particularly in the Republic of Baskortostan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garifullin, R.

    2001-09-01

    The objective of the thesis is to analyse the actual situation in the Russian oil industry and to envisage basic ways if its future development. The first chapter evaluates the place of the former USSR and Russia in the world and particularly European systems of energy supply. The three next chapters analyse the currents situation in the sectors of oil exploration and production, logistics and refining in Russia. The fifth chapter aims to figure out the perspectives of the refining industry taking into account the evolution of demand for basic petroleum products and the production capacities. Optimisation of refining and production volumes between the Russian refineries is done by minimising the transportation cost between the refineries and consuming regions by using linear programming. The last chapter analyses the regional impacts of the oil industry taking the Republic of Baskortostan as example. The contribution of the oil industry to regional development is evaluated in the framework of the export base theory using the Input-Output analysis as mathematical tool. (author)

  17. Crude oil pricing in Asia and future problems; Asia no gen`yu pricing to kongo no kadai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-01-30

    This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  18. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  19. Drewry: Mideast in firm control of world oil supplies for 1990s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Surging economic growth in the Far East will push up world crude oil demand steadily in the 1990s despite the current economic downturn. It will fall to members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to meet that increased demand, given the expected decline in non-OPEC production. And because OPEC members in the Persian Gulf region are best positioned to meet the increase, the balance of power in oil markets will shift even more in favor of the Middle East. Seaborne oil exports from the Middle East will jump almost 30% by 1997 from 1991 levels. There will be a worldwide rise of 16% in the volume of seaborne crude oil trade, with a 29% hike in movements of refined products by tanker. Those are among the findings of a report by Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London. Drewry said, It is expected that 1992 will be a low point in non-OPEC output and that production levels will recover steadily from 1993 onward, although not rapidly enough to match the anticipated rise in demand. Drewry estimates non-OPEC production in 1997 at 37.1 million b/d vs. 38.1 million b/d in 1991. With non-OPEC production falling by 2.6% between 1991 and 1997, OPEC producers will have the scope to increase their output by almost 32% over the same period

  20. Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India

    OpenAIRE

    Bharat Ramaswami; Jatinder Bir Singh

    2006-01-01

    Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage oppo...

  1. Can the future, world-wide energy supply be achieved without nuclear energy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugeler, K.

    1995-01-01

    In the future the world-wide energy demand is going to increase considerably. The use of nuclear energy will continuously grow if the demand of climate researchers for a reduction of the world-wide CO 2 emission is fulfilled and if the possible contribution of regenerative energy sources is assessed realistically. In the future a world-wide use of nuclear energy will be realised according to even higher safety standards. The modification of the German Atom Law, which determines the limitation of damage caused to the reactor plant for future reactors fulfils this demand. The efforts in the field of nuclear technical development will concentrate on the proof of the required safety properties. (orig.) [de

  2. The development of the world's population as a factor determining future energy requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.; Henssen, H.

    1988-01-01

    Urgently desired economic developments improving the conditions of living in the developing countries and, in the long term, introducing a stabilization of the world's population, result in a considerable rise in world energy requirement. This, in turn, causes conflicts and raises major ecological dangers because of the accelerated depletion of fossil sources of energy it entails. The severity of the CO 2 problem emerges clearly only when seen in connection with the population growth of the developing countries. Undoubtedly, therefore, the fossil sources of energy will have to give up their present leading role in world energy supply because of the intolerable environmental pollution they produce and because of the dwindling oil and gas reserves. The only hope remaining for the present is the possibility of nuclear power and renewable energies pointly being able to meet requirements, while all economically reasonable conservation potentials are being exploited. (orig./UA) [de

  3. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  4. Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarnoczi, Tyler

    2013-01-01

    Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

  5. World oil flow slips in 1991 amid Mideast, U.S.S.R. woes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    World crude oil production slipped 0.9% in 1991 to average 59,964 million b/d. This paper reports that production declines related to war damage in Kuwait, United Nations sanctions on exports from Iraq, and oil sector woes in the crumbling U.S.S.R. were almost offset by higher production from other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC crude production rose 0.6% in 1991 to average 23.425 million b/d, and non-OPEC output fell 1.9% to average 36.539 million b/d in 1991. Excluding the U.S.S.R., non-OPEC production moved up 1.5% to average 26.239 million b/d. World demand inched up about 200,000 b/d, estimates International Energy Agency, and IEA data show about 300,000 b/d was added to stocks in 1991. World crude prices started 1991 at their highest level, then fell off to average $17.82/bbl, down 16.5% from 1990 levels. Meantime, a slight increase in demand is predicted for 1992, and price stability again hinges on OPEC's ability to limit production

  6. A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiévet, L.; Forró, Z.; Cauwels, P.; Sornette, D.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production. - Highlights: • Two step methodology to forecast a countries oil production. • Nonlinear extrapolation of the performance of individual fields. • Stochastic model of the frequency of future discoveries. • Backtest starting in 2008 of the methodology. • Improvement upon standard extrapolation of aggregate production

  7. Factors affecting future crude oil production in South East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baugh, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the face of booming regional demand, crude oil production in the South East Asian region will decline from a 1996 peak of 5.7 million barrels a day to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2005 unless major new exploration investments are undertaken. The current fiscal terms for such investment will not attract continued significant funds to the region given the low crude price outlook, tough competitive global environment for the upstream industry, and the emergence of more attractive fiscal terms in politically and commercially stable countries with proven prospectivity. There is evidence from the emerging trend toward fiscal terms softening and differentiation around risk in some countries, that the commercial reality is becoming accepted. It remains to be seen if the various national political, bureaucratic and industry constituencies guiding these decisions within the region can respond decisively to mitigate the growing crude import dependency. (author). 2 tabs

  8. Development and future perspective of nuclear power plants. Current status and future prospect of world nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Masaharu

    2013-01-01

    Fukushima Daiichi NPS accidents occurred on 11 March 2011 brought about great effects on nuclear development not only in Japan but also in the world. In Japan restart of operation of periodically inspected nuclear power plants (NPPs) could not be allowed except Oi NPPs two units and most parties except Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) pledged to possibly phasing out nuclear power at House of Councillors election in July and public opinion was mostly against nuclear power after the accident. LDP clearly stated that, with the inauguration of new government last December, Japan would not pursuing the policy of the prior government of possibly phasing out nuclear power by the 2030s, but would instead make a 'zero-base' review of energy policy. Germany decided to close eight reactors immediately and remaining nine by the end of 2022. For many countries, nuclear power would play an important role in achieving energy security and sustainable development goals. In 2011 NPPs 6 units started operation with 2 units under construction, and in 2012 NPPs 3 units started operation with 7 units under construction. At present there are now over 400 NPPs operating in 31 countries and world trend seemed nuclear development was continued and number of countries newly deploying NPPs was increasing as much as eighteen. This article presented current status and future prospect of world NPPs in details. Japan would like to share its experiences and information obtained from the accident with the world and also promote NPPs overseas to meet the world's expectations. (T. Tanaka)

  9. The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils; L'industrie du raffinage et le devenir des fiouls lourds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soleille, S

    2004-01-15

    The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

  10. Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? An Introduction to the Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niloo Hojjati

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In April 2013, The School of Public Policy formally launched the Extractive Resource Governance Program, a platform to harness Canadian and international research and technical expertise to assist resource-rich jurisdictions in establishing sustainable and mutually beneficial policies for governance of the extractive sector. The program delivers applied policy research, technical assistance and executive training programs to countries with emerging or established extractive resources, working in collaboration with governments, regulatory bodies, academia, civil society, and industry. Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project was conceived as a means to identify jurisdictions where Canadian companies had ongoing projects and activities around the world. This paper introduces the methodology used to answer the question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, firm-level data from publicly traded Canadian companies were collected and analyzed culminating in the development of an online tool for public use. This paper accompanies an interactive website launched by The School’s Extractive Resource Governance Program and describes the data available online as well as in the annual reports released by The school. The website and annual reports allow interested users to geographically locate jurisdictions around the world where publicly traded Canadian oil and gas companies have activities, over time. The website is available at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teachingtraining/extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. While Canada is a well-recognized oil and gas jurisdiction within its own borders, the extent of activity that Canadian companies undertake in the international arena is less well known. For instance, while Natural Resources Canada collects and publishes regular data on Canadian mining assets and

  11. The future of Alberta's oil and gas: Long-term strategies necessary to sustain markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicts that based on current combustion and depending on world oil prices, Canadian oil sands can supply North American demand for 40 years and Canadian natural gas can meet North American requirements for 20 years. Natural gas production in the U.S. is greater in total energy output than oil production of the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. At the same time the U.S. gas industry is confronting a unique and profound combination of events, namely it is facing the first true shortage of deliverable reserves in its history. This may be harsh news for the consumer, however, for Alberta's oil and gas industry, the new world energy order has the potential to be a huge blessing. With relatively large, unexploited oil and gas reserves and a next door neighbour with the world's most voracious appetite for fossil fuels, it is inevitable that much of this shortage is going to be satisfied by oil and gas from Canadian sources. Nevertheless, there are some barriers to be overcome. The greatest barriers to an assured U. S. market for Canadian oil and gas is competition from Venezuelan heavy crude and synthetic crude and light sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico. To assure a ready market for Canadian heavy crude in the U. S. Midwest, Canadian producers need to be pro-active in working with U. S. refiners to develop new conversion capacity, or develop upgrading in Canada. Mexico and Venezuela have been successfully participating in major U. S. expansions in coker projects to allow projects to run heavy crude. This will eventually result in an additional 600,000 barrels per day of heavy crude available on the U. S. market, putting further pressure on Canadian markets. The challenge is for Albertan producers to undertake similar strategies with U. S. Midwest refiners for heavy and synthetic crude. Long-term supply arrangements appear to be the only way to induce American Midwest refiners to make more investment to process

  12. Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niloo Hojjati

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this study seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, we extract firm-level information from publicly traded Canadian companies in order to establish the location of their activities around the globe.1 The data collected in the “Where in the World” (hereafter WIW project are presented through a publicly accessible interactive world map, which allows users to explore a specific country or region over time. This map can be accessed online at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teaching-training/extractiveresource-governance/ergp-map/. For background information regarding the WIW project, including an extensive overview of the methodology, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Where-in-the-WorldHojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. For a summarized overview of the annual data gathered in 2011, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/ uploads/2017/06/2011-Where-in-the-World-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. This report, as in the earlier report in this series, presents an extensive account of the global presence of Canadian oil and gas (hereafter O&G companies in the 2012 year of study.2 In total, 228 Canadian O&G companies conducted operations in 85 countries in 2012, extending their presence to every region of the world. While North America continued to serve as the primary destination for Canadian exploration and production activities, the role of Canadian O&G service companies increased significantly in the Middle Eastern oil and gas industry, particularly in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman. This report begins with a regional overview of the international activities of Canadian exploration and production (E&P companies, followed by a summary of the level of activities on a

  13. Long-range prospects of world energy demands and future energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozaki, Yasuji

    1998-01-01

    The long-range prospects for world energy demands are reviewed, and the major factors which are influential in relation to energy demands are discussed. The potential for various kinds of conventional and new energy sources such as fossil fuels, solar energies, nuclear fission, and fusion energies to need future energy demands is also discussed. (author)

  14. Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alkhathlan, Khalid; Gately, Dermot; Javid, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    We analyze oil export behavior by Saudi Arabia and the Rest of OPEC since 1973. In the literature there has been a wide range of estimates of their correlation: from positive, to zero, to negative. We find that the correlation has varied over time, from moderately high (0.7) in normal periods, to negative during each of five interruptions; the average correlation has been 0.19. Saudi Arabia's oil market behavior depends upon circumstances, but its primary goal is the stability of OPEC and the world oil market. It will coordinate export reductions with the Rest of OPEC when faced with declining demand, but it will increase exports when faced with interruptions elsewhere in OPEC. Allowing for such differences provides evidence of intelligent, context-dependent consistency. But ignoring context – by wrongly assuming the same Saudi response in Normal periods and Interruptions – can lead to a conclusion of Saudi “inconsistency” because the difference in the responses has been obscured

  15. Past, Present and Future: GATT, Free Trade Areas and... the World Trade Organization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Bernardos

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this article are, on the one hand, to carry out a reconsideration of the workings of the commercial system since the Bretton Woods agreements and, on the other hand, to make some reflections regarding the function that the World Trade Organizationmust carry out in the future in a world divided, probably just like now, in regional areas of free trade. In order to achieve these aims the following are specified: the bases on which the liberalization of trade has been founded after the Second World War, the causes whichprovoked the wave of protectionism in the Eighties, the reasons which have brought about the division of the world into trading blocks as well as the need for an organization which encourages inter-regional trade and reduces the commercial wars between these blocks.

  16. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  17. Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberling, George G.

    This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

  18. The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buryanova N.V.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

  19. Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niloo Hojjati

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, we extract firm-level information for publicly traded Canadian companies in order to establish the location of their activities around the globe.1 The data collected in the “Where in the World” (hereafter WIW project are presented through a publicly accessible interactive world map, which allows users to explore a specific country or region over time. This map can be accessed online at http://www.policyschool.ca/research-teaching/teaching-training/ extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. For further information regarding the WIW project, including a comprehensive overview of the methodology, please refer to http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Where-in-theWorld-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf. In addition, summary reports of the annual data collection for the 2011 and 2012 years of analysis are also available at http://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2011-Where-in-theWorld-Hojjati-Horsfield-Jordison-final.pdf and http://www.policyschool.ca/wpcontent/uploads/2017/06/2012-Where-in-the-World-Hojjati-final.pdf. This report, as in the earlier reports in this series, provides an account of emerging trends and highlights variations in the level of global activities of Canadian oil and gas companies (hereafter O&G for the 2013 year of study.2 In 2013, a total of 226 Canadian O&G companies engaged in global exploration and service activities in 99 countries worldwide. The Middle East and Europe experienced the greatest increase in the concentration of Canadian exploration and production (E&P companies. Meanwhile, the international presence of Canadian O&G service companies continued to grow in several countries, including Colombia, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. This report

  20. Organizing the collection and automated processing of information about oil pollution of the world's oceans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikhaylov, V.A.; Surago, A.V.

    1983-01-01

    A system is examined for collecting, testing, storing and processing of data about pollution of the world's ocean by oil within the MOK-VMO test project on a computer (EVM). Forms for recording the results of observations and analysis in the form of an observation log for each form of oil pollution are cited. A description is given of the operation of the system.

  1. Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

  2. Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-07-01

    The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

  3. Oil and Labour: The Pivotal Position of Persian Oil in The First World War and the Question of Transnational Labour Dependency

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Atabaki, T.; De Vito, Christian G.; Gerritsen, Anne

    2017-01-01

    Atabaki examines the conceptualization, articulation, and implementation of the Oil Company’s shifting labour policy against the background of greater global geopolitical shifts during the First World War. The chapter especially addresses the spatiality of labour recruitment across the Persian

  4. Solar power engineering in the future world: A view from Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebkov, D. S.

    2012-01-01

    The paper suggests an energy model for the future world based on solar power engineering and new Russian energy technologies. Chlorine-free solar silicon technologies, stationary concentrators, solar modules with service lives doubled up to 40 years, matrix solar elements with an efficiency factor of 20% at a concentration of 5-500, and resonance waveguide methods for transmitting energy for solar energy systems are considered. (author)

  5. Battle for market share: World oil market projections, 1995-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Considine, J.I.; Reinsch, A.E.

    1995-09-01

    A world-wide market assessment and scenario analyses were described. They were said to suggest a more bearish outlook for crude oil prices relative to last years projections. The price of WTI was projected to weaken over the 1996-1998 period due to rising non-OPEC production, gradual reintegration of Iraqi exports, a lack of unified accommodation by the rest of OPEC for incremental Iraqi volumes, and demand growth insufficient to absorb the additional production at current prices. Crude prices could be expected to lie in the $15.50-$17.50 (US) per barrel range from 1996 to 1998, and in the $14.50-$20.50 per barrel range during the first decade of the 21. century. Long-term price risk was expected to be weighted to the down side. The reasoning behind these predictions was explained in detail. 24 figs., 83 tabs., 70 refs

  6. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  7. Use of Cymbopogon citratus essential oil in food preservation: Recent advances and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Akpan, Ernest E

    2017-08-13

    The economic burdens and health implications of food spoilage are increasing. Contamination of food sources by fungi, bacteria, yeast, nematodes, insects, and rodents remains a major public health concern. Research has focused on developing safer natural products and innovations to meet consumers' acceptance as alternatives to synthetic food preservatives. Many recent novel preservative techniques and applications of both natural and synthetic origin continue to proliferate in food and chemical industries. In particular, some essential oils of plant origin are potent food preservatives and are thus attractive alternatives to synthetic preservatives. This paper provides an overview of recent advances and future prospects in assessing the efficacy of the use of Cymbopogon citratus (lemongrass) essential oil in food preservation. The possible mechanisms of action and toxicological profile as well as evidence for or against the use of this essential oil as an alternative to synthetic food preservatives in domestic and industrial applications are discussed.

  8. Hope in Africa?: social representations of world history and the future in six African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Liu, James H; Licata, Laurent; Klein, Olivier; Mendes, Júlio; Feijó, João; Niyubahwe, Aline

    2011-10-01

    Data on social representations of world history have been collected everywhere in the world except sub-Saharan Africa. Two studies using open-ended data involving university students from six African countries fill this gap. In Study 1, nominations from Cape Verde and Mozambique for the most important events in world history in the past 1000 years were dominated by war and politics, recency effects, and Western-centrism tempered by African sociocentrism on colonization and independence. The first three findings replicated previous research conducted in other parts of the world, but the last pattern contrasted sharply with European data. Study 2 employed a novel method asking participants how they would begin the narration of world history, and then to describe a major transition to the present. Participants most frequently wrote about the evolution of humanity out of Africa, followed by war and then colonization as a beginning, and then replicated previous findings with war, colonization, and technology as major transitions to the present. Finally, when asked about how they foresaw the future, many participants expressed hope for peace and cooperation, especially those facing more risk of collective violence (Burundi and Congo). A colonial/liberation narrative was more predominant in the data from former Portuguese colonies (Angola, Cape Verde, and Guinea-Bissau) than from former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Congo).

  9. Where in the World are Canadian Oil and Gas Companies? 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niloo Hojjati

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Canada is well recognized for its prominence as an oil and gas jurisdiction in regard to its resources within its own borders. However, there is little available analysis and information regarding the presence of Canadian companies in the international arena. Begun in 2011 as an internal research tool for the development of the Extractive Resource Governance Program, this project seeks to answer the vital question: Where in the world are Canadian oil and gas companies? To answer this question, firm-level data from publicly traded Canadian companies are collected and analyzed, culminating in the development of an online tool for public use. This map allows interested users to geographically locate jurisdictions around the world where publicly traded Canadian oil and gas (hereafter O&G companies have activities, over time. The map is available at http://www.policyschool.ca/ research-teaching/teaching-training/extractive-resource-governance/ergp-map/. This project, hereafter referred to as the WIW project, provides a measure that quantifies Canadian oil and gas activity around the world and identifies key jurisdictions that are of particular interest to Canadian O&G companies. The data collected holds value for various stakeholders such as governments, regulatory bodies, academia, civil society, and industry across the extractive resource spectrum. Prior to further discussion regarding the 2011 annual data results, it is valuable to provide a brief overview of the methodology used in the collection of data for this research project. The WIW project examines the global activities of Canadian O&G companies in 218 countries spanning seven international regions of analysis.1 The aim of the WIW project is to examine the international presence of Canadian companies in foreign countries. As such, it is important to note that this project does not provide information related to the activities of Canadian companies within Canada’s border, such as the

  10. Impact of innovations on future energy supply - chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase of global energy demand by one-third during next 20 years together with a change in the global energy mix. A key-influencing factor is a strong expected increase in oil and gas production in the United States driven by 'new' technologies such as hydraulic fracturing. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR) is another strong growing technology with the potential of a step change innovation, which will help to secure future oil supply by turning resources into reserves. While conventional production methods give access to on average only one-third of original oil in place, the use of surfactants and polymers allows for recovery of up to another third of this oil. In the case of polymer flooding with poly acrylamide, the number of full field implementations has increased in recent years. In the meantime new polymers have been developed to cover previously unmet needs - such polymers can be applied in fields of high salinity and high temperature. Use of surfactants is in an earlier stage, but pilot tests show promising results.

  11. OPEC and the world oil prices: Is the genie back in the bottle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    After reviewing and analyzing OPEC's behavior in the past two decades, a simulation model is employed to explore plausible paths for oil prices. OPEC's members are subdivided into analytically convenient maximizing groups. Lener index analysis is applied to measure observed market power and the potential monopoly power for the cartel core. Price paths for the 1990s under alternative OPEC configurations are presented, and it is suggested that the return to monopolization is large. Price levels of the 1970s were not sustainable even with a perfectly disciplined cartel core. Long run supply and demand elasticities were much greater than OPEC expected. Even though cheating contributed to OPEC's predicament in the 1980s, the primary determinant of oil price decline was external market forces. Future price instability is possible for both political and economic reasons, with a likely scenario of prices oscillating around the cartel core's optimum price path that features prices in the present range rising moderately. 8 refs., 6 tabs., 3 figs

  12. Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

  13. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  14. Hedging Effectiveness and Optimal Hedge Ratios: An Analysis of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Market

    OpenAIRE

    OH, STELLA JIA XIN

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia for the period from January 2000 to August 2015. To measure hedging performances of optimal hedge ratio, different measures have been employed such as the static hedge ratio estimation models of conventional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), while the time-varying model is presented by the Diagonal Vech Multivariate Generalized A...

  15. Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, Paul Edward

    There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

  16. Advanced light water reactors: an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruschi, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    In addition to safety and reliability, a common mission for the international nuclear industry in the 21. century will be ensure affordable electricity. At the Westinghouse Electric Corporation believe our advanced light water reactor (ALWR) design gives us the opportunity to provide the safest, most reliable, lowest cost, most competitive generation method possible for use by nations and utilities worldwide. While the safety and reliability aspects of the ALWR can be proven tangibly and are well-documented, questions have been raised about the technology's ability to work within the world's selling price range for electricity generation. For our industry's financial stability, and especially for the stability of the world's future power needs, Westinghouse has done extensive work on this issue and we are convinced we can meet the competitive challenge. We believe the ALWR can be an economically viable part of the world's future energy mix. This paper will define the competitive challenge that is being addressed by the industry and then analyze three specific areas: capital costs, operating costs, and financing costs. The hidden advantage of nuclear power in responding to these challenges will be explored, and a strong case will be made asserting that the advanced light water reactor will be able to compete in international markets with viable production costs. (authors)

  17. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  18. Cost and benefits for using NYMEX [New York Mercantile Exchange] crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deaves, R.; Krinsky, I.

    1991-01-01

    The crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1990-91 has illustrated how important it is for end users of petroleum products to be able to reduce the risk of unexpected price changes. Transferring the risk of price changes, or hedging, is most desirable when the costs of doing so are low relative to the benefits. The nature of these benefits and costs are discussed, and a related analysis of data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures market is reported. It is shown that likely risk reduction is directly related to the degree to which the crude oil futures market can be characterized as efficient. Using data from the highly volatile period of 1983-90, evidence is presented to support the proposition that the crude oil market is efficient. There is no evidence for the existence of risk premiums, which constitute an additional cost to hedging. This is good news for hedgers, as it implies that risk transfer is free in the sense that hedgers need pay no premium to speculators. Although the market appears to be efficient when past returns and the basis are used as explanatory variables, there is some evidence that futures returns may be predicted using macroeconomic variables. 8 refs., 4 tabs

  19. 世界油气资源形势分析%The Analysis of World Oil and Gas Resources Situation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张所续

    2013-01-01

    World primary energy consumption grew by 1.8% in 2012,well below that of the past decade ,which was 2 .6%.And the proportion of oil ,natural gas was 33 .1%,23 .9%,respectively . There was a continuous decline in oil shares .World oil reserves increased slightly by 0.9%,while natural gas reserves declined by0 .3 %.The strong growth of unconventional oil and gas produc-tion,including shale gas and tight oil ,will have a significant impact on the global energy landscape . According to 2013 World Energy Reserves Statistical Yearbook released by BP , production and consumption of the world 's oil and natural gas,etc.were analyzed,and the situation was discussed .%2012年世界一次能源消费量增长1.8%,远低于过去十年2.6%的平均增速;其中石油、天然气所占比重分别为33.1%、239.%,石油份额连续下滑。世界石油储量微增0.9%,天然气储量减少0.3%,随着页岩气、致密油等非常规油气产量的强劲增长将对全球能源格局产生重大影响。根据BP发布的2013年世界能源统计年鉴,对世界石油和天然气的储量、产量、消费量等情况进行分析,并展开形势研判。

  20. The World-Wide Web past present and future, and its application to medicine

    CERN Document Server

    Sendall, D M

    1997-01-01

    The World-Wide Web was first developed as a tool for collaboration in the high energy physics community. From there it spread rapidly to other fields, and grew to its present impressive size. As an easy way to access information, it has been a great success, and a huge number of medical applications have taken advantage of it. But there is another side to the Web, its potential as a tool for collaboration between people. Medical examples include telemedicine and teaching. New technical developments offer still greater potential in medical and other fields. This paper gives some background to the early development of the World-Wide Web, a brief overview of its present state with some examples relevant to medicine, and a look at the future.

  1. The world energy demand in 2007: How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? June 9, 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    How high oil prices impact the global energy demand? The growth of energy demand continued to accelerate in 2007 despite soaring prices, to reach 2,8 % (+ 0,3 point compared to 2006). This evolution results from two diverging trends: a shrink in energy consumption in most of OECD countries, except North America, and a strong increase in emerging countries. Within the OECD, two contrasting trends can be reported, that compensate each other partially: the reduction of energy consumption in Japan (-0.8%) and in Europe (-1.2%), particularly significant in the EU-15 (-1.9%); the increase of energy consumption in North America (+2%). Globally, the OECD overall consumption continued to increase slightly (+0.5%), while electricity increased faster (2,1%) and fuels remained stable. Elsewhere, the strong energy demand growth remained very dynamic (+5% for the total demand, 8% for electricity only), driven by China (+7.3%). The world oil demand increased by 1% only, but the demand has focused even more on captive end usages, transports and petrochemistry. The world gasoline and diesel demand increased by around 5,7% in 2007, and represents 53% of the total oil products demand in 2007 (51% in 2006). If gasoline and diesel consumption remained quasi-stable within OECD countries, the growth has been extremely strong in the emerging countries, despite booming oil prices. There are mainly two factors explaining this evolution where both oil demand and oil prices increased: Weak elasticity-prices to the demand in transport and petrochemistry sectors Disconnection of domestic fuel prices in major emerging countries (China, India, Latin America) compared to world oil market prices Another striking point is that world crude oil and condensate production remained almost stable in 2007, hence the entire demand growth was supported by destocking. During the same period, the OPEC production decreased by 1%, mainly due to the production decrease in Saudi Arabia, that is probably more

  2. EIA model documentation: World oil refining logistics demand model,``WORLD`` reference manual. Version 1.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-04-11

    This manual is intended primarily for use as a reference by analysts applying the WORLD model to regional studies. It also provides overview information on WORLD features of potential interest to managers and analysts. Broadly, the manual covers WORLD model features in progressively increasing detail. Section 2 provides an overview of the WORLD model, how it has evolved, what its design goals are, what it produces, and where it can be taken with further enhancements. Section 3 reviews model management covering data sources, managing over-optimization, calibration and seasonality, check-points for case construction and common errors. Section 4 describes in detail the WORLD system, including: data and program systems in overview; details of mainframe and PC program control and files;model generation, size management, debugging and error analysis; use with different optimizers; and reporting and results analysis. Section 5 provides a detailed description of every WORLD model data table, covering model controls, case and technology data. Section 6 goes into the details of WORLD matrix structure. It provides an overview, describes how regional definitions are controlled and defines the naming conventions for-all model rows, columns, right-hand sides, and bounds. It also includes a discussion of the formulation of product blending and specifications in WORLD. Several Appendices supplement the main sections.

  3. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  4. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  5. Extracting oil palm crown from WorldView-2 satellite image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korom, A.; Phua, M.-H.; Hirata, Y.; Matsuura, T.

    2014-02-01

    Oil palm (OP) is the most commercial crop in Malaysia. Estimating the crowns is important for biomass estimation from high resolution satellite (HRS) image. This study examined extraction of individual OP crown from a WorldView-2 image using twofold algorithms, i.e., masking of Non-OP pixels and detection of individual OP crown based on the watershed segmentation of greyscale images. The study site was located in Beluran district, central Sabah, where matured OPs with the age ranging from 15 to 25 years old have been planted. We examined two compound vegetation indices of (NDVI+1)*DVI and NDII for masking non-OP crown areas. Using kappa statistics, an optimal threshold value was set with the highest accuracy at 90.6% for differentiating OP crown areas from Non-OP areas. After the watershed segmentation of OP crown areas with additional post-procedures, about 77% of individual OP crowns were successfully detected in comparison to the manual based delineation. Shape and location of each crown segment was then assessed based on a modified version of the goodness measures of Möller et al which was 0.3, indicating an acceptable CSGM (combined segmentation goodness measures) agreements between the automated and manually delineated crowns (perfect case is '1').

  6. Extracting oil palm crown from WorldView-2 satellite image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korom, A; Phua, M-H; Hirata, Y; Matsuura, T

    2014-01-01

    Oil palm (OP) is the most commercial crop in Malaysia. Estimating the crowns is important for biomass estimation from high resolution satellite (HRS) image. This study examined extraction of individual OP crown from a WorldView-2 image using twofold algorithms, i.e., masking of Non-OP pixels and detection of individual OP crown based on the watershed segmentation of greyscale images. The study site was located in Beluran district, central Sabah, where matured OPs with the age ranging from 15 to 25 years old have been planted. We examined two compound vegetation indices of (NDVI+1)*DVI and NDII for masking non-OP crown areas. Using kappa statistics, an optimal threshold value was set with the highest accuracy at 90.6% for differentiating OP crown areas from Non-OP areas. After the watershed segmentation of OP crown areas with additional post-procedures, about 77% of individual OP crowns were successfully detected in comparison to the manual based delineation. Shape and location of each crown segment was then assessed based on a modified version of the goodness measures of Möller et al which was 0.3, indicating an acceptable CSGM (combined segmentation goodness measures) agreements between the automated and manually delineated crowns (perfect case is '1')

  7. Arsenolipids in marine oils and fats: A review of occurrence, chemistry and future research needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sele, Veronika; Sloth, Jens J.; Lundebye, Anne-Katrine

    2012-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on arsenic in marine organisms, and relatively high natural levels of the element have been reported in marine samples. Despite their seemingly consistent presence in marine oils and fats, there is currently only limited knowledge available on arsenic compounds that ...... to feed and food safety and legislative issues. Analytical techniques, including techniques in the early work on arsenolipids in addition to methods employed today, and relevant sample preparation will be discussed....... of this review is to present current knowledge on the occurrence and chemistry of arsenolipids in marine oils, and to identify future research needs. The occurrence of arsenolipids and their relevance in marine organisms will be discussed, in addition to their relevance for consumers and industry, with respect...

  8. Hydrocarbon upgrading demonstration program (HUDP): an investment in the future of the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, Duke; Isaacs, Eddy [AI-EES (Canada); Hill, Rich; McPhee, Anne; Keesom, Bill; Arnold, Ed [Jacobs Consultancy (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Alberta Innovates Energy and Environment Solutions (AIEES), the technology arm of the Alberta Government in terms of energy and the environment, has initiated the hydrocarbon upgrading demonstration program (HUDP). Since lighter products have a better market value, this program aims to develop technologies for upgrading heavy oil into light, transportable fuel. The program also aims to improve SAGD efficiency while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, the gaps between typical and ideal operations were identified and quantified, life cycle analyses were performed, current studies were reviewed and future issues and opportunities were assessed. With the HUDP program, AIEES is supporting the industry through investment and technology support to develop innovative technologies which will improve margins and the sustainability of oil sands operations.

  9. This time it's different. An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)

    2008-08-15

    There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)

  10. Relative bioavailability and toxicity of fuel oils leaking from World War II shipwrecks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faksness, Liv-Guri; Daling, Per; Altin, Dag; Dolva, Hilde; Fosbæk, Bjørn; Bergstrøm, Rune

    2015-05-15

    The Norwegian Authorities have classified 30 WWII shipwrecks to have a considerable potential for pollution to the environment, based on the location and condition of the wreck and the types and amount of fuel. Oil thus far has been removed from eight of these shipwrecks. The water accommodated fractions of oils from two British wrecks and two German wrecks have been studied with special emphasis on chemistry and biological effects (algae growth (Skeletonema costatum) and copepod mortality (Calanus finmarchicus)). Chemical analyses were also performed on three additional German wreck oils. The results from these studies show that the coal based oils from German WWII shipwrecks have higher toxicity to marine organisms than the mineral oils from the British shipwrecks. The potential for higher impact on the marine environment of coal based oils has resulted in an altering of the priority list for oil recovery from WWII wrecks by the authorities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. World market of crude oil - review of possible scenarios of forecasting for the crude oil price movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janevski, Risto

    2003-01-01

    Throughout most of 2002, crude oil prices were solidly within the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC 'basket price' (Fig. 1). OPEC producers have been demonstrating disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Early in 2003, a dramatic upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of two factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela's oil exports. Although other OPEC producers agreed to increase production to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by fears of war in Iraq. (Original)

  12. World oil and gas exploration trends: A comparative study of national and U.S. private oil companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghouri, S.S.K.

    1991-01-01

    This study hypothesizes that private oil companies and state-owned, national oil companies (NOCs) have different objectives and priorities and thus that different behavioral models are needed to explain changes over time in the level of exploration by these two groups of companies. More specifically, exploration by private companies is expected to be more sensitive to changing oil prices than exploration by NOCs. The study develops three different sets of expected determinants of change over time in the level of exploration (for private companies, and two groups of NOCs-oil importers and non-OPEC oil exporters). In the private-sector model, exploration is driven by expected determinants of profitability, such as oil prices and exploration costs. The NOC models also include national-priority variables, such as import dependency. The study then tests these behavioral models by specifying and estimating econometric models for the period 1970-1988 for 11 companies from the three company groups. Three econometric models are used: static, Koyck distributed lag, and Almon polynomial distributed lag models. The study concludes on the basis of three comparisons that different behavioral models are needed to understand changes in the level of exploration by private companies and NOCs. First, the private-sector model is estimated for all companies. For private companies, the private-sector model works well, whereas for the NOCs it does not, presumably because important determinants of NOC exploration are excluded from the model. Second, when these excluded variables are included in the specification, regression results for the NOCs improve significantly. Third, the private companies have higher elasticities of exploration in both the short run and long run than the NOCs

  13. A study of current world telecommunications and a projection of the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karageorgis, Costas

    1992-09-01

    Telecommunications today are important factors in economic and social progress. The last decades of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st have been characterized as the Information Age. Telecommunications, the movement of information through distances, is absolutely critical to the economic and military survival of nations. This thesis is an attempt to predict the future of telecommunications, by studying and analyzing the past and present. First it examines the meaning of telecommunications today and some basics of information transmission. The current status of telecommunications is then presented, by examining the regional profiles as they are divided by the International Telecommunications Union. A number of statistical studies are given, which present a thorough picture of current world telecommunications. In an effort to predict future industry trends, the competition among the three largest telecommunications markets, U.S.A., Japan and the European Community, is also considered by looking at their present telecommunications industry, the efforts they make to improve their technology, and their plans for future investment. Finally, some major technological trends including BISDN, the use of fiber technology in the communications loop, and the use of solitons are examined. The new Metropolitan Area Network Protocol, FDDI-2 is also reviewed.

  14. Strategic R and D Planning for an Energy Future in an Interdependent World

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schainker, R.B.; Gellings, C.; Rosinski, S.

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents a summary of key results of a comprehensive analysis of technology R and D needs for the U.S. electric utility industry. It focuses on the impacts of the world-wide interdependencies for the price of gas/oil fuel and the costs for environmental emissions as drivers to define four 'what-if' scenarios that act as a basis to define key R and D topics U.S. electric utilities need to address. This paper is based on past work the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute performed on a technology roadmap, which is a high-level document that provides guidance on strategic technology planning over the next 40-50 years for the electricity industry. However, critical uncertainties over this timeframe - such as fuel prices, the economy, the environment, technology advances, and regulatory policies - complicate effective identification and development of R and D priorities. To address these uncertainties and to develop a nearer-term technology-oriented action plan, EPRI undertook an Electric Power Industry Technology Scenarios project that uses scenario planning to explicitly incorporate uncertainty and focuses on a 20-year planning horizon. (auth)

  15. Some properties of castor oil affecting its performance as a capacitor impregnant and their significance to future impregnant research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boicourt, G.P.

    1975-01-01

    For a considerable time castor oil and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) have been the principal impregnants used in energy-storage capacitors. Castor oil has proven to be better than PCB for pulsed applications. PCB's have come under attack as an environmental hazard, while castor oil is a vegetable product and its supply and quality are subject to fluctuation. These two facts make the development of new impregnants desirable. The properties of PCB as a capacitor impregnant are well known. This paper first compares a number of properties of castor oil and PCB's. A comparison is made between the lives of castor oil capacitors and comparable PCB energy-storage capacitors. Some of the physical and chemical properties of castor oil which make it a good pulse capacitor impregnant are examined. These properties can be used as a guide for future research on new pulse capacitor impregnants

  16. Oil and Gas in Eastern Africa: Current Developments and Future Perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auge, Benjamin

    2015-03-01

    The position of oil companies toward East Africa has changed considerably since 2006 when the first reserves in Uganda came to light. However, for many investors interested in the region, it remains difficult to get a clear picture of the scale of developments of this sector. This paper will discuss the locations of reserves, their volumes, when they will be developed, what they will be used for, and possible impediments to their development. In addition to Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, which already have ample hydrocarbon resources, it will be useful to address the future of certain countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Madagascar, and the Comoro Islands, which have largely underestimated potentials. (author)

  17. Market structure, excess capacity and price movement: implications for the world oil market in the 1990s

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwayemi, A.

    1992-01-01

    World Oil Market developments, since the second half of the 1980s, have demonstrated again the conventional wisdom in economics that competitive production and pricing strategies have among producers, when the industry is characterized by significant excess capacity, in exerting strong downward pressure on the price. The magnitude and speed of the price falls depends not only on the size and utilization of the available excess capacity, but also on the perception of the markets as regards the degree of the imbalance between demand and supply. The impact of output competition on oil revenues in the short run depends on the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand. The most vivid illustration of this phenomenon is captured by the experience of 1986, when competition for market share among oil producers, despite the existence of about 20 per cent excess capacity, culminated in a sharp drop in price, with only a marginal improvement in demand. (author)

  18. A Study on the efficient alleviation of domestic oil price at international oil crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Young Ku [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    For alleviating domestic oil price when the international oil crisis happens, the government has been reacted directly such as using stored oil or alleviation fund. Although the release of stored oil works for short-term depending on the type of crisis, concerning that most of oil crisis had been resulted in temporary supply reduction rather than long-term supply suspension, utilizing the domestic alleviation fund is regarded more economical than storing oil. However, it has been suggested to compare efficiencies of alleviation fund and a futures market regarding the perspectives that using alleviation fund is more inefficient than utilizing a futures market. Moreover, the direct management by government is less efficient than indirect management. As an efficient way to alleviate domestic oil price at international oil crisis, this study presents an effective utilization of trading in futures of crude oil. There is a high probability of occurrence of this kind of oil crisis by judging from the world political situation and the trend of oil market. In such a case, the government as a crude oil importer should minimize the stored oil and utilize a futures market effectively. The subject of alleviating oil price by trading in futures is an oil supplier, such as oil refining companies or oil importers not the government as a prerequisite. Furthermore, the government should approve to include appropriate cost for preparing oil price alleviation in the oil price and it is required that such a government policy should be consistent. (author). 41 refs., 3 figs., 15 Tabs.

  19. Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard G.

    2011-01-01

    The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period. - Research highlights: → IEA forecasts of oil supply have changed from optimistic to pessimistic and back. → The reasons for the changes are listed, examined and found wanting. → The most appropriate IEA forecast is nevertheless the most pessimistic one. → Some criticisms of the forecast methodology and assumptions are described.

  20. The Future of Comparative and International Education in a Globalised World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, David N.

    2003-03-01

    This article examines the history and future prospects of comparative and international education with particular reference to the impact of globalisation and Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). Connections and interactions between comparative educationists and the technologies of printing and electronic communications are examined in a historical context. The global nature of communications in comparative and international education is demonstrated both spatially and historically, using information from all regions of the world. The changing nature of technologies is noted to have broadened the audience for comparative insights. The development of textbooks, journals, conferences, international agencies, the Internet, web-based communications, and professional comparative education societies is related to the themes of communications and globalisation.

  1. Local Power -- Global Connections: linking the world to a sustainable future through decentralized energy technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brent, Richard; Sweet, David

    2007-07-01

    Various international dynamics are converging to increase the attractiveness of decentralized energy as a complement to existing centralized energy infrastructures. Decentralized energy (DE) technologies, including onsite renewables, high efficiency cogeneration and industrial energy recycling, offer considerable benefits to those seeking working alternatives to emerging challenges in the energy sector. DE is ideally suited to provide clean affordable energy to areas where modern energy services are currently lacking. Having smaller generators close to where energy is required ensures a safe, reliable and secure energy supply when the energy is required. Furthermore, because DE is a much cleaner alternative than conventional central power plants and the energy provided comes at a much smaller price tag DE is an increasingly acceptable alternative both in the developed and developing world. DE is sure to play a key role in any plan to build a sustainable energy future. (auth)

  2. Nuclear fusion and its large potential for the future world energy supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ongena Jef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An overview of the energy problem in the world is presented. The colossal task of ‘decarbonizing’ the current energy system, with ~85% of the primary energy produced from fossil sources is discussed. There are at the moment only two options that can contribute to a solution: renewable energy (sun, wind, hydro, etc. or nuclear fission. Their contributions, ~2% for sun and wind, ~6% for hydro and ~5% for fission, will need to be enormously increased in a relatively short time, to meet the targets set by policy makers. The possible role and large potential for fusion to contribute to a solution in the future as a safe, nearly inexhaustible and environmentally compatible energy source is discussed. The principles of magnetic and inertial confinement are outlined, and the two main options for magnetic confinement, tokamak and stellarator, are explained. The status of magnetic fusion is summarized and the next steps in fusion research, ITER and DEMO, briefly presented.

  3. [The future of hygiene in a world of technology--hygiene and historicism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habs, H

    1985-03-01

    Stimulated by "historicism", a term coined by Karl Popper, statements uttered by the philosophers Heidegger, Jaspers and Guardini are analysed to see whether historical forecasts are possible which justify a gloomy outlook of the world's future, such as is presently spreading as a result of the concern about an excessive invasion of our life by technology. Man has liberated himself from his original dependence on the natural forces of his environment thanks to the technology he has developed. He has severed his ties with this environment, but must not be overwhelmed by technocracy. Also, we hygienists, should allow for the historical development of our natural and social environment, in addition to the results of laboratory analyses and field studies.

  4. Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, N.; Overholt, W.; Thomas, J.; Wiener, A. J.

    1975-01-01

    Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

  5. Intertidal oysters reach their physiological limit in a future high-CO2 world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanes, Elliot; Parker, Laura M; O'Connor, Wayne A; Stapp, Laura S; Ross, Pauline M

    2017-03-01

    Sessile marine molluscs living in the intertidal zone experience periods of internal acidosis when exposed to air (emersion) during low tide. Relative to other marine organisms, molluscs have been identified as vulnerable to future ocean acidification; however, paradoxically it has also been shown that molluscs exposed to high CO 2 environments are more resilient compared with those molluscs naive to CO 2 exposure. Two competing hypotheses were tested using a novel experimental design incorporating tidal simulations to predict the future intertidal limit of oysters in a high-CO 2 world; either high-shore oysters will be more tolerant of elevated P CO 2 because of their regular acidosis, or elevated P CO 2  will cause high-shore oysters to reach their limit. Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata , were collected from the high-intertidal and subtidal areas of the shore and exposed in an orthogonal design to either an intertidal or a subtidal treatment at ambient or elevated P CO 2 , and physiological variables were measured. The combined treatment of tidal emersion and elevated P CO 2  interacted synergistically to reduce the haemolymph pH (pH e ) of oysters, and increase the P CO 2  in the haemolymph ( P e,CO 2 ) and standard metabolic rate. Oysters in the intertidal treatment also had lower condition and growth. Oysters showed a high degree of plasticity, and little evidence was found that intertidal oysters were more resilient than subtidal oysters. It is concluded that in a high-CO 2 world the upper vertical limit of oyster distribution on the shore may be reduced. These results suggest that previous studies on intertidal organisms that lacked tidal simulations may have underestimated the effects of elevated P CO 2 . © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  6. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J. McGlone

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons. This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger. This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  7. The Future of Pork Production in the World: Towards Sustainable, Welfare-Positive Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlone, John J

    2013-05-15

    Among land animals, more pork is eaten in the world than any other meat. The earth holds about one billion pigs who deliver over 100 mmt of pork to people for consumption. Systems of pork production changed from a forest-based to pasture-based to dirt lots and finally into specially-designed buildings. The world pork industry is variable and complex not just in production methods but in economics and cultural value. A systematic analysis of pork industry sustainability was performed. Sustainable production methods are considered at three levels using three examples in this paper: production system, penning system and for a production practice. A sustainability matrix was provided for each example. In a comparison of indoor vs. outdoor systems, the food safety/zoonoses concerns make current outdoor systems unsustainable. The choice of keeping pregnant sows in group pens or individual crates is complex in that the outcome of a sustainability assessment leads to the conclusion that group penning is more sustainable in the EU and certain USA states, but the individual crate is currently more sustainable in other USA states, Asia and Latin America. A comparison of conventional physical castration with immunological castration shows that the less-common immunological castration method is more sustainable (for a number of reasons). This paper provides a method to assess the sustainability of production systems and practices that take into account the best available science, human perception and culture, animal welfare, the environment, food safety, worker health and safety, and economics (including the cost of production and solving world hunger). This tool can be used in countries and regions where the table values of a sustainability matrix change based on local conditions. The sustainability matrix can be used to assess current systems and predict improved systems of the future.

  8. Past and future trends in grey water footprints of anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to major world rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, C.; Kroeze, C.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie

    2012-01-01

    The grey water footprint (GWF) is an indicator of aquatic pollution. We calculate past and future trends in GWFs related to anthropogenic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs into major rivers around the world. GWFs were calculated from past, current and future nutrient loads in river basins using

  9. Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persson, Tobias A.; Azar, C.; Johansson, D.; Lindgren, K.

    2007-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claims compensation for losses in expected oil export revenues due to CO 2 mitigation measures in developing countries. These losses are expected for two primary reasons: a reduction in the consumption of oil in importing countries and a reduction in the producer price of oil (taxation in an importing country implies a transfer of rents from producers to consumers). So far, most studies have focused on these two mechanisms and corroborated that revenue losses for OPEC are to be expected. However, there are also mechanisms that may be expected to raise the price of oil products. In a cost-effective regime for dealing with climate change, i.e., a regime in which all or most countries participate and in which the same carbon price is applied on all carbon-emitting activities, the cost of using unconventional oil, or synthetic diesel from coal, will increase even more than the cost of using conventional oil. Given that reserves of conventional oil are expected to dwindle over time, heavy oils and coal to liquids might set the long-run price for liquid fuels, which means that the price of oil would increase beyond the carbon fee; i.e., the rent on conventional oil would increase. We use an energy-economic optimization model to analyze these three mechanisms. We find that the net present value of OPEC revenue from conventional oil increases slightly (at most by 4 percent) with a global CO 2 restriction regime. We also consider conditions under which this result does not hold

  10. Sexual reproduction in species of the brown seaweed, Fucus, to assess damage and recovery from the World Prodigy oil spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thursby, E.; Tagliabue, M.; Sheehan, C.; Steele, R.

    1990-01-01

    On Friday, June 23, 1989, the oil tanker World Prodigy ran aground on Brenton Reef off Newport, Rhode Island, USA, spilling No. 2 fuel oil into the mouth of Narragansett Bay. This paper reports that a shoreline survey of the intertidal and upper subtidal macroalgae was begun on June 24th as part of a larger effort to document the fate and effect of the oil. There was little evidence of necrotic tissue among the attached plants at most of the site visited. However, several species of the brown alga, Fucus, showed inhibition of sexual reproduction. Reproductive material of F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis or F. spiralis var. limitaneus was collected from various sites for later laboratory assessment of viability. Viability was determined by germination rate of embryos. Summer is not the optimal reproductive time for Fucus, and embryos of F. spiralis var. limitaneus never germinated at a rate greater than 25%, even from clean sites. Fucus spiralis plants were collected at Narragansett Pier, before arrival of oil from the spill. Embryos at this site had a germination rate of 63%. There was essentially no germination by either F. vesiculosus or F. spiralis at any oil sites visited during the first collections. However, by July 5th at some sites, and by July 13th at all sites, the germination rate of these two species averaged from 60 to 88%

  11. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  12. Future Industrialization of the World and the Necessity of Nuclear Power, Part II: How Limited are Resources?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovich, Jovan V.

    1997-01-01

    Will the future world be forever divided into an industrial, developed and 'rich' on one side, and the primitive, undeveloped, and poor on the other? Is an industrial, affluent and sustainable world of 10-15 billion people owning 5-10 billion cars physically possible to exist? Can the world have enough food, minerals and energy to support such a widespread affluence in a sustainable manner? In previous papers I have argued that even without any major breakthroughs in science and technology, an industrialized, sustainable and affluent world can be created within the next half a century to a century, but only if breeder nuclear power is widely used throughout the world. In this paper I elaborate on the question of future availability of some basic natural resources. (author)

  13. Mexican oil industry: Shifting to difficult oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bazan G., Gerardo; Gonzalez, Cristobal J.

    2010-09-15

    Mexico has stepped into an important transition of declining oil fields and new challenging oil projects. The aim of this paper is to show a new perspective of the oil resources that have been exploited throughout the Mexican territory, as well as the remaining resources yet to be exploited. We have developed a resources/production-costs chart that illustrates the historical and future development of the Mexican oil industry, showing the shift that the industry will face in the coming years; this chart was taken from a model already in use by the most prestige energy agencies in the world.

  14. Fuels for the oil-fuelled heating system of the future; Brennstoffe fuer die Oelheiztechnik der Zukunft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rheinberg, O. van [Oel-Waerme-Institut GmbH, An-Institut der RWTH Aachen, Herzogenrath (Germany). Abt. Energietraeger

    2011-02-15

    For ecological and political reasons bio-heating-oil of up to 10.9 vol.% of Fatty-Acid-Methyl-Ester (FAME) is available in the market. For new installations the appliance industry has approved their products for the use of this bio-heating-oil. For existing oil firing plants minor changes are necessary. These are the use of qualified oil burner pumps, oil tubes, oil pre-filter and the change to single chord system in order to avoid the continuous circulation of heating oil. Due to the chemical and physical properties an admixture of up to 20.9 vol.% of FAME in heating oil sulphur low is feasible. One of the main requirements to introduce such fuel in the market is the guarantee of storage stability over several years even by such high levels of FAME. To reach this goal an accurate predictability of fuel stability and different actions for the stabilisation of such bio-heating oil are necessary. Hence several investigations are undertaken at Oel-Waerme-Institut to ensure higher levels of FAME or of other alternative fuels in the future. (orig.)

  15. North American Oil Sands: History of Development, Prospects for the Future

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Humphries, Marc

    2008-01-01

    .... Since 2004, when a substantial portion of Canada's oil sands were deemed economic, Canada, with about 175 billion barrels of proved oil sands reserves, has ranked second behind Saudi Arabia in oil reserves...

  16. Money matters. Financial world looks at oil companies with Argus eyes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gool, M.

    2008-01-01

    The financial markets foresee high risks in the energy sector for the big, private oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell and BP. It appears that these companies are undervalued, In contrast, financial backers are justifiably positive about companies providing services to the oil sector, such as Schlumberger and Halliburton, and 'utilities', such as Eon and EDF, which still have considerable room for growth, The relatively high valuation of state-controlled oil and gas companies such as Gazprom is somewhat more speculative

  17. Climate Change: A Future of Less Water and More people - Strategies for a Water Constrained World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahai, D.

    2010-12-01

    Today, the fact that the Earth is warming is indisputable. The evidence of climate change is already all around us, with the occurence of ever more intense weather events, droughts, heat waves, floods and sea level rise. Predictions of greater calamities in the future without swift action must be taken seriously. However, while international summits have focused on means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these are largely strategies of containment, not of cure. Even if emissions were to cease today, the current effects of climate change would remain with us for millenia. This is clear from the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The world must not only tackle the causes of global warming; it must adapt to the damage already done. This need is most acute where water supply is concerned. The world already faces daunting chalenges. According to United Nations' reports, even today 1.8 million children under 5 die from water related diseases every year; 900 million people lack access to safe drinking water; and 2.6 billion go without basic sanitation. In the developing world, 90% of sewage is discharged to water bodies without adequate treatment contributing to "dead zones". Population increases will make matters worse (an addition of around 3 billion people by 2050 is expected) and climate change will compound the crisis. It is forecast that, as the Earth warms, deserts will expand and droughts will intensify causing demographic shifts even as the world's population burgeons. We are already seeing different regions react to water shortages. Many countries are pursuing seawater desalination. However, seawater desalination has numerous drawbacks; it remains the most expensive of water treatment options and the most energy intensive. Some societies may have no choice but to turn to the sea; others should look to other alternatives first. Such frontrunners could include: (1) enhanced conservation, utilizing public education programs, price

  18. FORMATION OF THE NEW WORLD VIEW, NEW PERSON, NEW SOCIETY OF THE FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina A. Voronkova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To substantiate the anthropological approaches to the definition of the noosphere and cosmic consciousness and the world, a new consciousness, a new man, a new society of the future, by which humankind can go to a new state of mutual responsibility. Society should be based on a spiritual basis, a person must develop in harmony with the universe, so the philosophers need to change the philosophy of survival of the globalized world in the development of philosophy and spirituality, which is a new matrix of the discourse of development and outlook of the universe. The meaning of the individual in society - to be useful to society and to the person, to be a master, to live in harmony with people and nature. Methodology. Study is based on the methd of hermeneutical analysis.The scientific novelty of this work is shown in the results, which indicate the formation of the noosphere worldview that seeks to realize the idea of V.Vernadsky, which manifests itself in the context of a harmonious relationship of scientific knowledge, philosophy, and religion, which produce a variety of forms of dialogue between people of different cultural backgrounds, nationalities, religions, generations and gender. Conclusions. The new philosophy of development in the twenty-first century, aimed at forming a new society, a new consciousness, a new person should be directed to: a the confrontation process of self-destruction of the human person and the destructive tendencies of the environment, and b the creation of conditions for the harmonization of public self-regulatory systems: organization, person, environment, society, and c the creation of conditions for the realization of the creative potential of every person (regardless of its level of consciousness to identify the direction of development of the creative work, and d the formation and implementation of creative management at all levels.

  19. Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: ► The hedging strategy is not an average of deterministic strategies. ► The hedging offers a mix of abatement actions that cannot easily be found otherwise. ► Natural gas is an appealing choice in an uncertain context, especially in China. ► China reduces its emissions only when options in other countries are exhausted.

  20. Oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsouros, M.H.

    1992-01-01

    The world annually transports 1.7 billion tons of oil by sea, and oil spills, often highly concentrated discharges, are increasing from a variety of sources. The author discusses sources of oils spills: natural; marine transportation; offshore oil production; atmospheric sources; municipal industrial wastes and runoff. Other topics include: the fate of the spilled oil; the effects of the oil; the response to oil spills; and prevention of oil spills. 30 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  1. The end of oil: on the edge of a perilous new world

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roberts, Paul

    2004-01-01

    ...; and a Western middle class that refuses to modify its energy-dependent lifestyle. But within thirty years, by even conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is easily accessible...

  2. Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-01-01

    The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature. The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future. For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal. Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here. For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates

  3. The corbiculate bees arose from New World oil-collecting bees: implications for the origin of pollen baskets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Aline C; Melo, Gabriel A R; Renner, Susanne S

    2014-11-01

    The economically most important group of bees is the "corbiculates", or pollen basket bees, some 890 species of honeybees (Apis), bumblebees (Bombus), stingless bees (Meliponini), and orchid bees (Euglossini). Molecular studies have indicated that the corbiculates are closest to the New World genera Centris, with 230 species, and Epicharis, with 35, albeit without resolving the precise relationships. Instead of concave baskets, these bees have hairy hind legs on which they transport pollen mixed with floral oil, collected with setae on the anterior and middle legs. We sampled two-thirds of all Epicharis, a third of all Centris, and representatives of the four lineages of corbiculates for four nuclear gene regions, obtaining a well-supported phylogeny that has the corbiculate bees nested inside the Centris/Epicharis clade. Fossil-calibrated molecular clocks, combined with a biogeographic reconstruction incorporating insights from the fossil record, indicate that the corbiculate clade arose in the New World and diverged from Centris 84 (72-95)mya. The ancestral state preceding corbiculae thus was a hairy hind leg, perhaps adapted for oil transport as in Epicharis and Centris bees. Its replacement by glabrous, concave baskets represents a key innovation, allowing efficient transport of plant resins and large pollen/nectar loads and freeing the corbiculate clade from dependence on oil-offering flowers. The transformation could have involved a novel function of Ubx, the gene known to change hairy into smooth pollen baskets in Apis and Bombus. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

    2012-01-01

    Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

  5. Future oriented financial information (FOFI) : Should oil and gas companies use FOFI in public documents?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtland, C.M.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of whether oil and gas companies should use FOFI (future-oriented financial information) in public documents was discussed. FOFI is information about prospective results of operations, financial position or changes in financial position, based on assumptions about future economic conditions and courses of actions (projections or forecasts). FOFI is not required under securities legislation unless an issuer chooses to provide it to third parties. However, if provided to one third party, it must be provided to all third parties. Five reasons why FOFI is not used by companies in the petroleum industry are given. These are: (1) it is not necessary to sell the prospectus offering, (2) if FOFI is included, the prospectus offering might, in some circumstances, be more difficult to sell, (3) if included, the FOFI may distract investors from proper analysis, (4) there are additional costs to the issuer when FOFI is included, and (5) there may be potential liability to various parties if FOFI is included and proves to be misleading. No changes to the current FOFI policy are contemplated for the immediate future, but in the longer term the reduction of the $ 500,000 minimum to $ 150,000 per investor where an offering memorandum must contain a forecast or projection, and the possible introduction of a safe harbour provision for any issuer who, in good faith, prepares FOFI, are being considered

  6. US refining capacity for Canadian heavy oil : current overview and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paget, S.

    2006-01-01

    This presentation provided an overview of the Canadian oil sands industry and investigated the potential heavy oil refining capacity of the United States. An outline of the first commercial developments of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in Alberta's oil sands was provided. Canada's reserves were compared with oil shale and heavy oil reserves in the United States and Venezuela. Influences of Canadian developments from western Canadian conventional crude oil were reviewed, and an oil sands production forecast was provided. Recent refining developments in the United States include delayed coking; catalytic cracking; fluid coking; flexicoking; and LC-fining. However, many oil sand producers are now choosing to upgrade oil, and producers are currently saturating United States markets with heavy crude oil. Canadian crude prices reached $90 per barrel in 2006. Heavy oil pipelines are now being constructed and existing heavy oil pipelines are being expanded. ConocoPhillips is planning to invest $1 billion for a new heavy oil coker, while BP is investing $3 billion for a heavy oil refinery in Indiana which plans to refine Canadian crude oil supplies. However, bitumens from Alberta are volatile in price, and excess Canadian production must be exported. Less than 10 per cent of western Canadian crude has tidewater access, and capital providers are concerned about cost over-runs. In order for the Canadian oil sands industry to succeed, refining capacity in the United States must be expanded, and open access must be provided to the Gulf coast as well as to the Pacific Ocean. tabs., figs

  7. Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, R Russell M; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson

    2015-09-24

    The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

  8. Report of the world association of medical editors: agenda for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-04-01

    During a 3-day meeting at Bellagio in January 2001, a group of 20 editors from 12 countries in 5 continents met to map out a strategy for the World Association of Medical Editors (WAME)'s continued development in the service of medical editors over the next several years. The group: 1) Developed a statement of principles on the standards of professionalism and responsibilities of editors (this statement will be posted on the Web site after electronic consultation with and comment by WAME editors); 2) Agreed to assess the extent to which these principles are reflected in practice and to explore barriers to their adoption, using data from a survey and focus groups; 3) Developed and outlined an on-line program for distance learning, targeted at new editors; 4) Planned for formal evaluation of the educational outreach program; and 5) Agreed to support regional initiatives to strengthen local editorial capacity. Underpinning all past and proposed future activities is the WAME Web site. The ambitious plans outlined above will require extensive development of the site, plans for which were made at the Bellagio meeting.

  9. Changing the world with hydrogen and nuclear: From past successes to shaping the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carre, F.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation reviews the past history of hydrogen and nuclear energy, while considering how they had been important forever, how they have been used to change the world when they were discovered and understood, and how they will likely shape our future to face specific challenges of the 21. century. Content: 1 - hydrogen and nuclear reactions at the origin of the universe: the universe and supernovae, the sun, the blue planet, the evolution of man; 2 - understanding and first uses of hydrogen: the discovery of hydrogen, hydrogen balloons, airships or dirigibles, the discovery of the electrolysis and the fuel cell, Jules Vernes; 3 - development of nuclear over the 20. century: pioneers of nuclear energy, Fermi reactor, EBR-1; 4 - development of hydrogen over the 20. century, expanding uses of hydrogen over the second half of the 20. century; 5 - four major endeavours gathering hydrogen and nuclear: light water reactors, naval reactors, nuclear rockets, controlled fusion, the PNP-500 project; 6 - stakes in hydrogen and nuclear production in the 21. century: energy challenge for the 21. century, peaking of fossil fuel production, renaissance of nuclear energy, changes in transportation model, hydrogen market, technologies for nuclear hydrogen production, carbon taxes, the path forward: international demonstrations towards industrialisation, a new generation of scientists for our dreams come true

  10. The World Space Observatory Ultraviolet (WSO-UV), as a bridge to future UV astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shustov, B.; Gómez de Castro, A. I.; Sachkov, M.; Vallejo, J. C.; Marcos-Arenal, P.; Kanev, E.; Savanov, I.; Shugarov, A.; Sichevskii, S.

    2018-04-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) astronomy is a vital branch of space astronomy. Many dozens of short-term UV-experiments in space, as well as long-term observatories, have brought a very important knowledge on the physics and chemistry of the Universe during the last decades. Unfortunately, no large UV-observatories are planned to be launched by most of space agencies in the coming 10-15 years. Conversely, the large UVOIR observatories of the future will appear not earlier than in 2030s. This paper briefly describes the projects that have been proposed by various groups. We conclude that the World Space Observatory-Ultraviolet (WSO-UV) will be the only 2-m class UV telescope with capabilities similar to those of the HST for the next decade. The WSO-UV has been described in detail in previous publications, and this paper updates the main characteristics of its instruments and the current state of the whole project. It also addresses the major science topics that have been included in the core program of the WSO-UV, making this core program very relevant to the current state of the UV-astronomy. Finally, we also present here the ground segment architecture that will implement this program.

  11. Past, Present, and Future of Psychosomatic Movements in an Ever-Changing World: Presidential Address.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph

    The American Psychosomatic Society was founded in 1942 and is celebrating its 75th anniversary in 2017. In recognizing the society's anniversary, this article provides a historical perspective on its history, the field of psychosomatic medicine in general, and anticipated future directions. Essay and narrative review of the literature on the historic development of psychosomatic concepts and their impact on medicine over time. Mind-body associations have been described in the medical literature for more than 3500 years. Early concepts of mind-body dualism and attempts to overcome them are found in classical Greek medicine. Psychosomatic thinking can be observed ever since, but only in the 20th century, a "psychosomatic movement" emerged in Europe and North America, aiming at humanizing medicine by introducing a holistic understanding of man into what was considered a widely reductionistic practice of medicine. This movement led to the inauguration of the American Psychosomatic Society during World War II and of national and international societies of psychosomatic medicine and its subspecializations thereafter. Psychosomatic medicine has its roots in the beginnings of medicine. During the past 75 years, it has made substantial contributions to the science and practice of medicine. The field has also changed in response to developments in medicine, technology, and society and is facing new challenges and opportunities that may require further adaptation of its concepts and practice.

  12. The struggle for energy. How the growing need for oil and gas will cause a world crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Op het Veld, R.

    2008-07-01

    Due to the rapid and continued economic growth of China and India, energy demand is increasing rapidly. At the same time, the Western world is facing decreasing oil and gas reserves. As a result, it becomes increasingly dependent on the Middle East and countries such as Russia and Venezuela. Shell and ExxonMobil, who were once dominant oil giants, are losing territory to state energy companies such as Saudi Aramco and Gazprom. The author analyses all these developments, also based on a series of interviews with various experts from trade and industry and the government in the Netherlands and abroad. The author states that the only solution for the energy issue and the climate issue is the development of alternative energy sources. However, for the present this will not suffice to meet growing demand. The battle for energy ultimately paints a picture that is not rosy, involving a crisis and an increasing international rat race for energy. [mk] [nl

  13. Sectoral effects of a world oil-price shock: economy-wide linkages to the agricultural sector. Staff report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, K.; Robinson, S.; Schluter, G.

    1991-10-01

    The effects of a world oil price shock on U.S. agriculture are analyzed in an economywide environment. The authors use an input-output model to analyze the direct and indirect cost linkages between energy and other sectors of the economy. Then, to allow sectoral output adjustment and the effects on the U.S. current account, they use the U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the sectoral effects under three different macro adjustment scenarios. The effects on agriculture are not limited to the direct and indirect energy costs. Exchange rate or foreign borrowing adjustments to higher oil import costs and government support programs for agriculture also matter

  14. Oil-producing flowers within the Iridoideae (Iridaceae): evolutionary trends in the flowers of the New World genera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauveau, Olivier; Eggers, Lilian; Souza-Chies, Tatiana T; Nadot, Sophie

    2012-08-01

    Oil-producing flowers related to oil-bee pollination are a major innovation in Neotropical and Mexican Iridaceae. In this study, phylogenetic relationships were investigated among a wide array of New World genera of the tribes Sisyrinchieae, Trimezieae and Tigridieae (Iridaceae: Iridoideae) and the evolution of floral glandular structures, which are predominantly trichomal elaiophores, was examined in relation to the diversification of New World Iridaceae. Phylogenetic analyses based on seven molecular markers obtained from 97 species were conducted to produce the first extensive phylogeny of the New World tribes of subfamily Iridoideae. The resulting phylogenetic hypothesis was used to trace the evolutionary history of glandular structures present in the flowers of numerous species in each tribe. Hypotheses of differential diversification rates among lineages were also investigated using both topological and Binary-State Speciation and Extinction methods. Floral glandular structures and especially trichomal elaiophores evolved multiple times independently in the American tribes of Iridoideae. The distribution pattern of species displaying glandular trichomes across the phylogeny reveals lability in the pollination system and suggests that these structures may have played a significant role in the diversification of the Iridoideae on the American continent.

  15. Three worlds of instructional design: State of the art and future directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merriënboer, J.J.G. van; Kirschner, P.A.

    Three worlds of ID are distinguished. The World of Knowledge stresses the analysis of learning outcomes in knowledge structures and the selection of instructional strategies for particular outcomes; the World of Learning focuses on particular learning processes and the synthesis of strategies that

  16. Reimagine the Future: Innovation for Every Child. The State of the World's Children 2015. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    UNICEF, 2014

    2014-01-01

    To mark the 25th anniversary of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, this edition of "The State of the World's Children" calls for brave and fresh thinking to address age-old problems that still affect the world's most disadvantaged children. The report is inspired by the work of innovators around the world--who are pushing…

  17. Leadership meta-competences for the future world of work: an explorative study in the retail industry

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    To achieve this purpose a leadership meta-competence model, based on levels of work theory, was developed for the future world of work. This model was firstly validated by senior managers in the retail industry. Subsequently a questionnaire assessing the perceived importance of these competencies currently and in the future was designed. This questionnaire was completed by 101 managers from various South African retail industries. The resultant data was analysed and the results indicated that...

  18. Nuclear power: How competitive down the line? [The world's latest energy outlook sees a mixed future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birol, F.

    2007-01-01

    The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by its use. Soaring energy prices and recent geopolitical events have reminded us of the essential role affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development, and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply disruptions. Safeguarding energy supplies is once again at the top of the international policy agenda. Yet the current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage. Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. These concerns have revived discussion about the role of nuclear power. Over the past two years, several governments have made statements favouring an increased role of nuclear power in the future energy mix and a few have taken concrete steps towards the construction of a new generation of safe and cost-effective reactors. Over the next two and a half decades, nuclear power along with energy efficiency and renewables, could help address concerns about over-reliance on fossil-fuelled electricity generation, especially worries about climate change and increasing dependence on gas imports: Nuclear power is a low-carbon source of electricity. Operation of one gigawatt of nuclear power generating capacity, if replacing coal-fired generation, avoids the emission of 5.6 million tonnes of CO 2 per year. Nuclear power plants do not emit any airborne pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides or particulate matter. Nuclear power plants can help reduce dependence on imported gas; and unlike gas, uranium resources are widely distributed around the world. Under current policies, gas-import dependence will rise in all regions of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and in key developing countries by 2030

  19. Oil Dependence, Climate Change and Energy Security: Will Constraints on Oil Shape our Climate Future or Vice Versa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, B. K.

    2008-12-01

    Threats to US and global energy security take several forms. First, the overwhelming dependence on oil in the transport sector leaves the US economy (and others) vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility. Secondly, the global dependence on oil inflates prices and enhances the transfer of wealth to authoritarian regimes. Finally, the global reliance on fossil fuels more generally jeopardizes the stability of the climate system. These three threats - economic, strategic and environmental - can only be mitigated through a gradual substitution away from fossil fuels (both coal and oil) on a global scale. Such large-scale substitution could occur in response to potential resource constraints or in response to coordinated government policies in which these externalities are explicitly internalized. Here, I make use of a well-known integrated assessment model (MERGE) to examine both possibilities. When resource limits are considered alone, global fuel use tends to shift toward even more carbon-intensive resources, like oil shale or liquids derived from coal. On the other hand, when explicit carbon constraints are imposed, the fuel sector response is more complex. Generally, less stringent climate targets can be satisfied entirely through reductions in global coal consumption, while more stringent targets require simultaneous reductions in both coal and oil consumption. Taken together, these model results suggest that resource constraints alone will only exacerbate the climate problem, while a subset of policy-driven carbon constraints may yield tangible security benefits (in the form of reduced global oil consumption) in addition to the intended environmental outcome.

  20. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  1. World energy supply and demand and the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lantzke, U.

    1977-01-01

    The author discusses the OECD's report ''World Energy Outlook'', which concluded that a severe energy gap could, and probably would, develop by the mid-1980s if present energy policies continue. Should nuclear power fail to make a substantial contribution, this situation is predicted to become even worse. The author states that an energy gap can only be realistically avoided by a combination of (a) deep energy conservation, (b) even greater use of coal, and (c) nuclear power. New energy technologies cannot realistically be expected to make a significant contribution much before the end of the century. Conservation and coal alone, however, will not be sufficient. It is difficult to envisage energy savings of more than 10% without reducing economic activity to a degree that becomes politically unacceptable. Greater use of coal is undoubtedly feasible, but the potential is severely constrained in the medium term for economic, technological and environmental reasons. Nuclear power must also make a significant contribution. However, estimates of OECD nuclear energy supply for 1985 have been scaled drastically downwards during 1976 owing to: uncertainty in the utility sector over future growth in electricity demand; continued, and in some cases increased, opposition to nuclear power; and delays and uncertainties in government nuclear policies and programmes. The author concludes that we cannot afford any further shortfall and we must move urgently to: (a) give strong and unswerving support to thermal nuclear reactor programmes (requiring that governments adopt clear and coherent nuclear policies, taking into account the legitimate concern expressed by the public); (b) develop stable and long-term international arrangements so that the necessary nuclear fuel facilities can be made available on a secure basis for peaceful uses of nuclear power; (c) decide what the real proliferation risk is and agree on action to avoid it; and (d) make renewed and stronger efforts to solve

  2. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  3. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  4. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  5. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  6. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  7. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  8. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  9. Palm oil - towards a sustainable future? : Challanges and opportunites for the Swedish food industry

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Sara

    2013-01-01

    The food industry faces problems relating to the sustainability of palm oil as a food commodity. These problem areas include social, environmental, economic and health issues. The food industry also competes with increasing palm oil demands from the energy sector. This case study identifies and analyzes different perspectives regarding sustainable palm oil as a food commodity in Sweden through interviews with palm oil experts in different businesses and organizations. This study focuses on ho...

  10. 78 FR 26319 - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill; Proposal of Future Early Restoration Projects and Environmental Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-06

    ... selected and implemented in accordance with the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA), the Framework Agreement... oil spill under the Oil Pollution Act 1990 (OPA; 33 U.S.C. 2701 et seq.). Pursuant to OPA, federal and... cost of this project is approximately $3.5 million. Sea Rim State Park Amenities (Jefferson County...

  11. Journal of the two worlds. Energies of the future; Revue des deux mondes. Les energies du futur

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    Confusion and irrationality are the two master-words of today's debates about energies and their impact on safety, environment, ethic and society. On the other hand, reports about urgent decisions to be taken are piling up (wastes reprocessing, future of nuclear energy, European policy etc..). This book analyzes the possible scenarios and the energy challenges at the year 2030 and 2050 vistas. (J.S.)

  12. Future Game Developers within a Virtual World: Learner Archetypes and Team Leader Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franetovic, Marija

    2016-01-01

    This case study research sought to understand a subset of the next generation in reference to virtual world learning within a game development course. The students completed an ill-structured team project which was facilitated using authentic learning strategies within a virtual world over a period of seven weeks. Research findings emerged from…

  13. The present and future burden of urinary bladder cancer in the world.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ploeg, M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.

    2009-01-01

    Urinary bladder cancer (UBC) is a common disease worldwide. At any point in time 2.7 million people have a history of UBC. The incidence of UBC varies over the world with highest rates in developed communities. But the burden of UBC will increase in less developed areas of the world. These changes

  14. Energy in the World in 2011: which lessons to be drawn for the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauquis, Pierre-Rene

    2012-01-01

    The author comments and discusses some recent events, trends and evolutions in the energy sector, notably in terms of energy production, consumption and prices. He addresses different energy sources: oil (reserves, production, exploration), natural gas and non conventional gases (tight gas, coal bed methane, shale gas), renewable energies (biomass, wind, solar), nuclear energy (the Fukushima accident and its consequences)

  15. Situating Systems Thinking between Past & Future: Hannah Arendt's Discourse on the Multicultural "World"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoeun, Chanthou

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the author contends that there is by now a devastating catalogue of evidence revealing the depth and breadth of corporate-sponsored, government-sanctioned acts of violence against the environment across the globe. British Petroleum's (BP) oil spill, for instance, is a testament to large-scale catastrophic ecological damages…

  16. World oil and gas markets in 2005; Les marches petroliers et gaziers mondiaux en 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-01-15

    In front of insufficient production capacities, the petroleum and gas spot prices have won historical records in 2005. This paper analyzes this situation using the highlights of this exceptional year and concerning the producing countries (political situation), the oil and gas markets (exchange rates, demand, production capacity), the European quotations of petroleum products (automotive and domestic fuels), and the prices of petroleum products in France. (J.S.)

  17. Oil market in Asia. Now and future up to year 2000 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibutani, Yu

    1995-01-01

    Asia's growing oil demand will be met by imports from the Middle East to an overwhelmingly extent. Therefore, more refining capacity will be needed to cope with the oil demand. New refineries will require the increasingly sophisticated technology to produce higher yields of transportation fuels and older ones will have to be upgrated, which will reshape the integration of downstream activities in this region. Further, East Asia, including China, as a net importer of oil, is vulnerable because of low oil sufficiency and inadequate stockpiling, while oil demand is increasing at remarkable rates. (author)

  18. Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

    2008-07-01

    This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

  19. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentham, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  20. The oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alba, P.

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  1. Future strategies for oil shale development as a new indigenous energy resource in Jordan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaber, J.O.; Tarawneh, T.

    2011-01-01

    Indigenous oil shale deposits could satisfy Jordan's demand for liquid and gaseous fuels as well as electricity for many centuries. Markets also exist for raw and retorted oil shale, spent shale, and for sulfur recovered during the upgrading and refining of crude shale oil. Although the potential benefits of oil shale development are substantial, complex and expensive facilities would be required, and these have serious economic, environmental, and social implications for the Kingdom and its people. In January 2006, the United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) awarded a grant to the Jordanian Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation to support the analysis of current oil shale processing technologies and the application of international expertise to the development of a oil shale industry in Jordan. The goal of the technical assistance project was to help the Government of Jordan (GoJ) establish short and long-term strategies for oil shale development and to facilitate the commercial production of shale oil in the country. This paper discusses the results of the project. The Kingdom's current energy situation and its previous work on oil shale are summarized, and the incentives and restraints on oil shale commercialization are described. Impediments to development are identified, and possible governmental responses are assessed. (author)

  2. Sustainable Energy Consumption in Northeast Asia: A Case from China’s Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable energy consumption in northeast Asia has a huge impact on regional stability and economic growth, which gives price volatility research in the energy market both theoretical value and practical application. We select China’s fuel oil futures market as a research subject and use recurrence interval analysis to investigate the price volatility pattern in different thresholds. We utilize the stretched exponential function to fit the pattern of the recurrence intervals of price fluctuations and find that the probability density functions of the recurrence intervals in different thresholds do not show the scaling behavior. Then the conditional probability density function and detrended fluctuation analysis prove that there is short-term and long-term correlation. Last, we use a hazard function to introduce the recurrence intervals into the (value at risk VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between the mean recurrence interval and the threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for hedgers and government.

  3. Past future. Coal dependence of the World's society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hemery, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    From the end of the eighteenth century, coal and steam-engines system became the first energetic base of the successive waves of the world industrialization. In this paper, the author investigates the factor of this prominent part and describes the phases of the coal mining era. He examines its social correlations and its heavy impact upon the Earth's biosphere. Today, coal remains the second energy in the world but the first cause of the present climatic crisis

  4. Wireless world in 2050 and beyond a window into the future!

    CERN Document Server

    Dixit, Sudhir

    2016-01-01

    This book gathers visionary ideas from leading academics and scientists to predict the future of wireless communication and enabling technologies in 2050 and beyond. The content combines a wealth of illustrations, tables, business models, and novel approaches to the evolution of wireless communication. The book also provides glimpses into the future of emerging technologies, end-to-end systems, and entrepreneurial and business models, broadening readers’ understanding of potential future advances in the field and their influence on society at large.

  5. Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    online database service provides one of the most-consistent, all-encompassing sources of demographic data and forecasts available. Figure 2.1 Population... retail trade and construction. When oil prices are high, retail trade and construction boom; when they are low, output falls, pulling down aggregate GDP...Brazil, California, Malaysia , Mexico—have successfully used revenues from natural resources for public investments in education and infrastructure

  6. Global oil company profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Global Oil Company Profiles provides a comprehensive review of 50 of the top oil companies in the world. Each chapter is devoted to an individual company, providing an invaluable insight into the organisation, its structure and operations. Using the most recent data available, the report offers an up-to-date analysis of performance and future direction, as well as a unique benchmarking system for each company profiled. (author)

  7. The world energy demand in 2006: Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster - June, 10 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster. According to the latest estimates by Enerdata, The world energy demand growth remains sustained in 2006, but twice slower than the GDP's growth, probably due to high energy prices on the international market. Oil: The oil demand, very captive, confirms once again its low elasticity to prices. 71% of the world oil product demand is concentrated on transport and petro-chemical sectors (77% in Europe, +13 points since 1990; 89% in North America). Gas/Electricity: Gas demand growth in 2006 is driven by Asia and the CIS, obvious price effects in the European Union. The CIS regains its position in the world production growth (22% in 2006 against 13% in 2005 and 33% in 2004). The power generation growth is more and more dominated by China and other Asian countries. The world electricity demand increases in the same proportions as in 2005 and 2004: 4%/year. Coal: Coal accounts for half of the world increase in energy consumption in 2006. China still accounts for 72% of the coal consumption, India for 10%, the rest of Asia 8% the rest of the world 10%. (authors)

  8. After the oil peak - How do we build preparedness with divergent visions of the future?; Efter oljetoppen - Hur bygger vi beredskap naer framtidsbilderna gaar isaer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helmfrid, Hillevi; Haden, Andrew

    2006-04-15

    This report was written to highlight important issues regarding the preparedness of Swedish society for a potential scarcity of crude oil and possible rapid increases in energy prices. The report consists of nine chapters covering the following topics: Chapter 1 introduces and describes the purpose of the report. Chapter 2 summarizes the available information related to the future availability of conventional crude oil and describes the theory of oil production 'peak'. Chapter 3 examines estimates of future oil demand using IEA global demand forecasts. Chapter 4 considers the question: 'when will oil production peak'? We examine the assumptions behind the various prognoses. Chapter 5 offers a broad overview of the importance of oil consumption for society. The chapter highlights the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) as it pertains to fossil and renewable energy sources. The EROEI of conventional crude oil has historically been very high. This is not true of many alternative fuels. In addition to discussing its various current uses, we consider the implications of oil consumption for the current economic order and for international political relations. Chapter 6 deals specifically with the role of oil in the Swedish food system, and the Swedish forestry system, which together comprise the Swedish 'green sector'. As of this writing, much attention is focused on agriculture and forestry as future energy sources for society. At the same time, we know that agriculture and forestry, as practiced today, are large consumers of fossil fuels. How this paradox can be resolved is a central question for modern societies, and implies significant changes for agriculture and forestry systems, and their associated industries. As an illustration, we offer baseline calculations of the amount of land that would need to be dedicated to raw material production for biofuels, given the current productivity of Sweden's agriculture and

  9. Using Digital Technologies in Clinical HIV Research: Real-World Applications and Considerations for Future Work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriesen, Jessica; Bull, Sheana; Dietrich, Janan; Haberer, Jessica E; Van Der Pol, Barbara; Voronin, Yegor; Wall, Kristin M; Whalen, Christopher; Priddy, Frances

    2017-07-31

    Digital technologies, especially if used in novel ways, provide a number of potential advantages to clinical research in trials related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and may greatly facilitate operations as well as data collection and analysis. These technologies may even allow answering questions that are not answerable with older technologies. However, they come with a variety of potential concerns for both the participants and the trial sponsors. The exact challenges and means for alleviation depend on the technology and on the population in which it is deployed, and the rapidly changing landscape of digital technologies presents a challenge for creating future-proof guidelines for technology application. The aim of this study was to identify and summarize some common themes that are frequently encountered by researchers in this context and highlight those that should be carefully considered before making a decision to include these technologies in their research. In April 2016, the Global HIV Vaccine Enterprise surveyed the field for research groups with recent experience in novel applications of digital technologies in HIV clinical research and convened these groups for a 1-day meeting. Real-world uses of various technologies were presented and discussed by 46 attendees, most of whom were researchers involved in the design and conduct of clinical trials of biomedical HIV prevention and treatment approaches. After the meeting, a small group of organizers reviewed the presentations and feedback obtained during the meeting and categorized various lessons-learned to identify common themes. A group of 9 experts developed a draft summary of the findings that was circulated via email to all 46 attendees for review. Taking into account the feedback received, the group finalized the considerations that are presented here. Meeting presenters and attendees discussed the many successful applications of digital

  10. Oil-Free Shaft Support System Rotordynamics: Past, Present, and Future Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    DellaCorte, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Recent breakthroughs in Oil-Free technologies have enabled new high-speed rotor systems and turbomachinery. Such technologies can include compliant-surface gas bearings, magnetic bearings, and advanced solid lubricants and tribo-materials. This presentation briefly reviews critical technology developments and the current state-of-the-art, emerging Oil-Free rotor systems and discusses obstacles preventing more widespread use. Key examples of "best practices" for deploying Oil-Free technologies will be presented and remaining major technical questions surrounding Oil-Free technologies will be brought forward.

  11. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  12. International Oil Supplies and Demands. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  13. The oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amic, E.; Lautard, P.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter examines the structure of the oil industry and the impacts of the oil markets on the hedging strategies of the energy consumers, the oil company, and the energy derivatives' provider. An introduction to market perspectives is presented, and the hedging operations in the jet fuel market in the airline sector are discussed. Trading and risk management within an oil company, the derivatives provider, trading derivatives in a multi-dimensional world, locational risks, and the modelling of term structure and the role of storage are considered. Industrial spreads and the role of refining, future market developments and market strategies for crude oil and oil products, and marketing packages and market risk are addressed

  14. Geoperspective | Oil and Gas in the Netherlands – Is there a future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herber, R.; Jager, J. de

    2010-01-01

    The impact of oil and, in particular, gas fields discovered in the Dutch subsurface has been very significant. However, 50 years after the discovery of the giant Groningen gas field the Netherlands has become very mature for exploration of oil and gas, and the gas volume left to be discovered in

  15. Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, K. Matthias; Harper, Jennifer Cassingena; Könnölä, Totti; Carabias Barceló, Vicente

    2017-01-01

    Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organ...

  16. UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development: Learning Today for a Sustainable Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The UNESCO World Conference on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) will be co-organised in 2014 by UNESCO and the Government of Japan on the occasion of the end of the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development. It has the following objectives: (1) Celebrating a decade of action; (2) Reorienting education to build a better future…

  17. Améry, Arendt, and the Future of the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne O'Byrne

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Of all the terms Jean Améry might have chosen to explain the deepest effects of torture, the one he selected was world. To be tortured was to lose trust in the world, to become incapable of feeling at home in the world. In July 1943, Améry was arrested by the Gestapo in Belgium and tortured by the SS at the former fortress of Breendonk. With the first blow from the torturers, he famously wrote, one loses trust in the world. With that blow, one can no longer be certain that “by reason of written or unwritten social contracts the other person will spare me—and more precisely stated, that he will respect my physical, and with it also my metaphysical, being.” In a vault inside the fortress, beyond the reach of anyone who might help—a wife, a mother, a brother, a friend—it turned out that all social contracts had been broken and torture was possible. His attackers had no respect for him, and no-one else could or would help.

  18. HISTORY OF LAND RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND THE PLANT WORLD: WHAT WE TAKE THE FUTURE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidia Borisovna Kuzina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of management of land resources and flora in connection with the history of Russian statehood, legislative acts is considered. The specifics of legislation on land and nature are described. The structure of top-level management in the post-Soviet period in the Russian Federation and in the world community is described.

  19. The future of public hospitals in a globalized world: corporate governance, corporatization or privatization?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordelet, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper contributes to research in health systems and hospitals governance by examining the reasons and expected outcomes of the generalization of corporate governance rules in both public and private non-profit hospitals, all over the world, in order to achieve its clinical, quality and financial objectives.

  20. The impact of oil price volatility on the future of the U.S. economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, Roy; Doroodian, K.; Thornton, Dennis

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of a foreign oil price shock on domestic energy markets as well as the U.S. economy as a whole. The analytical approach employed in the analysis consisted of a dynamic CGE model composed of eight production sectors, eight consumption sectors, three household categories classified by income, foreign sector, and the government. The results show that oil price shocks will have, as expected, a significantly positive effect on crude oil production. We also find that such price shocks negatively affect the refinery sector as input costs rise there. A decline in per-well productivity has the effect of dampening the rise in crude oil extraction and causing a further decline in refinery output. Economy-wide, the impact of a new series of oil price shocks is quite limited with overall welfare falling, but nowhere near the levels experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. (Author)

  1. The price of oil and the future of Middle East Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki Yamani, A.

    1997-01-01

    Most LNG contracts relate the LNG price received by the supplier at the point of delivery to a relevant oil price. Gas and oil are thus closely connected so that when the price of landed oil decreases so dose the price of delivered LNG. With large fixed transportation and liquefaction costs, accounting for around 85% of the supply cost of delivered LNG in the case of Qatari LNG supplied to japan, you can imagine how large falls in the price paid for delivered LNG would squeeze the net back to the producer back in Qatar. However, low oil price can do some damage to the economics of existing LNG projects in the Middle East. More importantly, persistently low oil prices can prevent new LNG projects from leaving the drawing board-which will stifle the exciting export potential of Middle Eastern gas

  2. The last oil century? The truth about world reserves - a geologist's viewpoint; Le dernier siecle du petrole? La verite sur les reserves mondiales - le point de vue d'un geologue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathieu, Yves

    2010-11-01

    Will the 21. century be the on of world oil reserves exhaustion? This fear of an oil-less world is shared by all: politicians, oil company heads, scientific experts, economists and, above all, by consumers. The author, a geologist and renowned expert of the domain, answers this vital question and presents the real situation of oil reserves country by country. He also evaluates the potentialities offered by non-conventional oils (heavy crudes, tar sands and oil shales) as well as by this desertic and hostile area considered as the new energy eldorado: the Arctic. This specialist's book, accessible to everyone, approaches in a didactic way the different economical and political stakes linked with world oil reserves. This analysis raises the issue: how long could we count on oil at accessible cost to cover our energy needs? (J.S.)

  3. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  4. World energy outlook 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-07

    The World Energy Outlook 2006 sets out the IEA's latest projections of world energy supply and demand to 2030 for oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity, plus projections on energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions. The publication is in three parts. Part A: The reference scenario has chapters entitled: Key assumptions; Global Energy Trends; Oil market outlook; Gas market outlook; Coal market outlook; and Power sector outlook. Part B: The alternative policy scenario contains chapters on: Mapping a new energy future; Assessing the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies; Deepening the analysis results by sector; and Getting to and going beyond the alternative policy scenario. Part C: Focus on key topics contains: The impact of higher energy prices; Current trends in oil and gas investment; Prospects for nuclear power; The outlook for biofuels; Energy for coking in developing countries; and Focus on Brazil. 224 figs., 84 tabs., 5 annexes.

  5. Applying monitoring, verification, and accounting techniques to a real-world, enhanced oil recovery operational CO2 leak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimmer, B.T.; Krapac, I.G.; Locke, R.; Iranmanesh, A.

    2011-01-01

    The use of carbon dioxide (CO2) for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is being tested for oil fields in the Illinois Basin, USA. While this technology has shown promise for improving oil production, it has raised some issues about the safety of CO2 injection and storage. The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) organized a Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting (MVA) team to develop and deploy monitoring programs at three EOR sites in Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, USA. MVA goals include establishing baseline conditions to evaluate potential impacts from CO2 injection, demonstrating that project activities are protective of human health and the environment, and providing an accurate accounting of stored CO2. This paper focuses on the use of MVA techniques in monitoring a small CO2 leak from a supply line at an EOR facility under real-world conditions. The ability of shallow monitoring techniques to detect and quantify a CO2 leak under real-world conditions has been largely unproven. In July of 2009, a leak in the pipe supplying pressurized CO2 to an injection well was observed at an MGSC EOR site located in west-central Kentucky. Carbon dioxide was escaping from the supply pipe located approximately 1 m underground. The leak was discovered visually by site personnel and injection was halted immediately. At its largest extent, the hole created by the leak was approximately 1.9 m long by 1.7 m wide and 0.7 m deep in the land surface. This circumstance provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate the performance of several monitoring techniques including soil CO2 flux measurements, portable infrared gas analysis, thermal infrared imagery, and aerial hyperspectral imagery. Valuable experience was gained during this effort. Lessons learned included determining 1) hyperspectral imagery was not effective in detecting this relatively small, short-term CO2 leak, 2) even though injection was halted, the leak remained dynamic and presented a safety risk concern

  6. FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbing, D.; Bishop, S.; Conte, R.; Lukowicz, P.; McCarthy, J. B.

    2012-11-01

    We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our behavior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spreading of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing serious challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the complex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technology (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly networked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most

  7. The Threats from Oil Spills: Now, Then, and in the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jerneloev, Arne (Vienna (Austria)), e-mail: arne.jernelov@chello.at

    2010-07-15

    The recent oil spill from the blown-out well by the name of Macondo, drilled by the ill-fated rig Deepwater Horizon, has many features in common with another blowout in the Mexican Gulf that happened three decades ago. Then the oil gushed out from the Ixtoc I well drilled by the Sedco 135-F semi-submersible rig. In the years between these catastrophes, the source and nature of oil spills have undergone large changes. Huge spills from tankers that ran aground or collided used to be what caught the headlines and caused large ecological damage. The number and size of such accidental spills have decreased significantly. Instead, spills from ageing, ill-maintained or sabotaged pipelines have increased, and places like Arctic Russia, the Niger Delta, and the northwestern Amazon have become sites of reoccurring oil pollution. As for blowouts, there is no clear trend with regard to the number of incidences or amounts of spilled oil, but deepwater blowouts are much harder to cap and thus tend to go on longer and result in the release of larger quantities of oil. Also, oil exploration and extraction is moving into ever deeper water and into stormier and icier seas, increasing potential risks. The risk for reoccurring spills like the two huge Mexican Gulf ones is eminent and must be reduced

  8. The oil industry in 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The various contributions present and comment many data about the evolutions of different parts of the oil industry until 2007: world oil and gas markets, worldwide oil exploration and production, oil exploration and production in France, oil and oil-related industry in France, hydrocarbon supplies, oil refining in France, fuel quality, substitution fuels, inner transportation of oil products, storage of oil products, consumption of oil products, taxing of oils products, price of oil products, distribution of oil products

  9. The oil industry in 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The various contributions present and comment many data about the evolutions of different parts of the oil industry until 2006: world oil and gas markets, worldwide oil exploration and production, oil exploration and production in France, oil and oil-related industry in France, hydrocarbon supplies, oil refining in France, fuel quality, substitution fuels, inner transportation of oil products, storage of oil products, consumption of oil products, taxing of oils products, price of oil products, distribution of oil products

  10. Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

    2014-05-01

    During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning

  11. A Home in the World? Remarks on India and the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-05-01

    their loyalties shift. If you ask an Indian working in America what he or she misses about India, the instant reponse is "Family," not corruption...experts, for whom the past is the pattern of the future. Then, in Burma, with a chopstick load of noodles halfway to my snout, the light finally

  12. Makiguchi in the "Fractured Future": Value-Creating and Transformative World Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goulah, Jason

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the applicability of Tsunesaburo Makiguchi's (1871-1944) educational ideas in what Denzin and Lincoln (2005) call the "fractured future," a time marked by human, environmental, and climatic destabilization, and a time in which the social sciences "are normative disciplines always already embedded in issues of…

  13. Picture a World without Pens, Pencils, and Paper: The Unanticipated Future of Reading and Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromley, Karen

    2010-01-01

    This article discusses the future of reading and writing. It includes a brief history of reading and writing, shows the reader how digital text has quietly evolved and threatens to take over traditional notions of what it means to be literate, and suggests that speech will emerge as a dominant way of communicating. The three ideas developed here…

  14. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B.C. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G. [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  15. The changing world of gas exploration present and future trends; Les evolutions dans le secteur de l'exploration du gaz tendances actuelles et futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duval, B C [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France); Maisonnier, G [Gedigaz, France (France)

    2000-07-01

    The industry has, in the past decade, added much more gas than it has produced, resulting in a 36% increase in world reserves. Therefore the resource base is no longer considered a serious constraint in satisfying the industry's needs. Under such circumstances, one may ask the question: is exploration for gas still needed? One way in which we may deal with this major issue would be to analyse the changes that occur in the upstream world, in relation to technology, the general business context and industry's strategies and their potential impact on future trends. Dramatic advancements in exploration technologies have helped to improve success ratios and prediction of fluid, and to open new prospective areas, while also reducing costs. From a State point of view, exploration constitutes a long term objective to contend with natural gas consumption growth without depending too much on imports, or to develop resources for exports. From a company perception, exploration appears as a necessity not only for future growth but also for geographical or geopolitical opportunities. Gas reserve additions will come increasingly from a combination of exploration and production deals. The numerous new opportunities created by a more open business environment will facilitate such developments. (authors)

  16. Oil refining in a CO2 constrained world: Effects of carbon pricing on refineries globally

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N.; Arfaj, Abdullah; Babiker, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Six aggregated refinery linear programming (LP) models were developed to represent actual refineries in North America, Latin America, Europe (including the CIS), Middle East, Asia (excluding China) and China. The models were used to conduct regional comparative assessments and to evaluate the effects of carbon pricing on refinery operations globally. We found that the average refinery energy efficiencies for the regions were estimated to range from 92.2% to 95.2%. The well-to-refinery gate carbon intensities for gasoline, diesel and jet fuels were estimated to be 17.1 (16.4–19.4), 13.3 (12.5–14.2) and 10.1 (9.6–10.8) gCO2eq/MJ, respectively. If refineries are forced to at least meet the 2014 regional volume demands for oil products, pricing CO 2 would not have an impact on either refinery productions, efficiency or emissions. If refineries are allowed to re-optimize production slates to reduce CO 2 emissions, refineries would opt to increase gasoline yield at the expense of diesel. This is counter intuitive since gasoline has a higher carbon intensity than diesel. The refinery bias against dieselization creates a supply preference toward a less efficient transportation end use. Here, we argue that if carbon pricing is not administered properly, this can lead to emissions leakage from refineries to the road transport sector. - Highlights: • Investigate actual refinery productions in 6 regions globally. • Refineries already operate at the most efficient levels. • Complex refineries tolerate higher CO 2 prices better. • Carbon pricing induces bias against dieselization. • Identify potential emissions leakage.

  17. Future Structure of the Life-World. As an inevitable consequence of the «peer-to-peer»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mototaka Mori

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article intends to draw theoretically a future structure of the life-world. The state interventionism in the late capitalism has been often argued by the critical theoreticians like Jurgen Habermas since the last half of the twentieth century. It was particularly the main problem how possible the life-world was in such the technologically systematized society. However, the highly technological development of telecommunication has changed our everyday life very rapidly and totally. If we know such the rapid change of coevolution between human life and technology, we have to fundamentally reconsider on the theory of life-world. Therefore, in this article I will firstly focus on the classical theory of mundane social world which Alfred Schutz presented in the early 1930s. Of course, his project of socio-phenomenology has been one of the most brilliant und important works still now. However, his theory also will have to be renewed. If we know particularly the «peer-to-peer» constellation of the computer network by the distributed anonymous persons, the classical model of life-world must be versioned up to a next theoretical level. Secondly, considering on the virtual currency like the Bitcoin, this article will show you a hypothetical aspect of transformation of the life-world. The mechanism of trust, which has been often understood as one of the most important key concepts for the community or the society, may be replaced with the computer technology of cryptographic proof. Such a theoretical examination will finally lead to an important opened problem. We will have to inquire whether such the social order will be spontaneous, or whether such the ordering will have to be decided only by the speed of computer’s central processing unit.

  18. [The current and future organisational structure of the OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo León, F; Ruiz Mercader, J; Sabater Sánchez, R; Rodríguez Ferri, E F; Crespo Azofra, L

    2003-12-01

    The authors analyse the organisational structure of the OIE (World organisation for animal health), highlighting the roles of the Central Bureau, the Specialist Commissions, Regional Commissions, working groups and ad hoc groups, Regional Representations, Reference Laboratories and Collaborating Centres. The paper also includes some suggestions as to how the OIE could work more closely with its 'customers', that is, the Member Countries. These suggestions are based on current theories of organisational flexibility, and take into account not only the current organisational structure of the OIE, but also the Strategic Plan and the Working Plan, which were adopted at the 69th General Session of the OIE International Committee in 2001.

  19. Road safety in a globalised and more sustainable world: current issues and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, Stijn; Risser, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    Although many countries have had considerable success in reducing traffic injuries over recent decades, there are still some fundamental problems in this area. At the same time, there is increasing focus on road safety research and policy development in the context of globalisation, sustainability, liveability and health. This special section presents a selection of papers that were presented at the annual ICTCT workshop held on the 8th and 9th of November 2012 in Hasselt, Belgium, and accepted for publication in Accident Analysis and Prevention following the journal's reviewing procedure. The aim of the ICTCT workshop was to analyse road safety facts, data and visions for the future in the wider context of current issues and future challenges in road safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The future of the brain essays by the world's leading neuroscientists

    CERN Document Server

    Freeman, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    An unprecedented look at the quest to unravel the mysteries of the human brain, The Future of the Brain takes readers to the absolute frontiers of science. Original essays by leading researchers such as Christof Koch, George Church, Olaf Sporns, and May-Britt and Edvard Moser describe the spectacular technological advances that will enable us to map the more than eighty-five billion neurons in the brain, as well as the challenges that lie ahead in understanding the anticipated deluge of data and the prospects for building working simulations of the human brain. A must-read for anyone trying to understand ambitious new research programs such as the Obama administration's BRAIN Initiative and the European Union’s Human Brain Project, The Future of the Brain sheds light on the breathtaking implications of brain science for medicine, psychiatry, and even human consciousness itself.

  1. An Australian Land Force for Conflict in a World Without Precedent (Future Warfare Concept Paper)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Michael B. Ryan, Australian Army Thesis: The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like...information) Wave societies.6 The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like all...Blue, downloaded from www.defence.gov.au/navy; La Franchi , Peter, “High Level Interoperability: Future Development of t Peter, “Development Role

  2. Future expectations for Japanese pharmacists as compared to the rest of the world

    OpenAIRE

    井上, 裕; 森田, 夕貴; 滝川, 茉由; 高尾, 浩一; 金本, 郁男; 杉林, 堅次

    2015-01-01

    It is important to share information about other countries' pharmacists to optimize cross-border medical cooperation. This paper examines the dispensing systems and the work done by pharmacists in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Thailand, and Malaysia so as to compare these countries' medical practices and develop a cohesive vision for the future of Japanese pharmacists. All five of the countries have dispensing assistants. Pharmacists in Japan have duties of inventory control, drug disp...

  3. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh

    2008-01-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  4. Future World Energy Demand and Supply: China and India and the Potential Role of Fusion Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheffield, John

    2005-01-01

    Massive increases in energy demand are projected for countries such as China and India over this century e.g., many 100s of megawatts of electricity (MWe) of additional electrical capacity by 2050, with more additions later, are being considered for each of them. All energy sources will be required to meet such a demand. Fortunately, while world energy demand will be increasing, the world is well endowed with a variety of energy resources. However, their distribution does not match the areas of demand and there are many environmental issues.Such geopolitical issues affect China and India and make it important for them to be able to deploy improved technologies. In this regard, South Korea is an interesting example of a country that has developed the capability to do advanced technologies - such as nuclear power plants. International collaborations in developing these technologies, such as the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER), may be important in all energy areas. Fusion energy is viewed as an interesting potential option in these three countries

  5. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O. [University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW (Australia). School of Biological Sciences

    1999-07-01

    Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1{degree}C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at about 1-2{degree}C per century. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs.

  6. A world class nuclear research reactor complex for South Africa's nuclear future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keshaw, Jeetesh [South African Young Nuclear Professional Society, PO Box 9396, Centurion, 0157 (South Africa)

    2008-07-01

    South Africa recently made public its rather ambitious goals pertaining to nuclear energy developments in a Draft Policy and Strategy issued for public comment. Not much attention was given to an important tool for nuclear energy research and development, namely a well equipped and maintained research reactor, which on its own does not do justice to its potential, unless it is fitted with all the ancillaries and human resources as most first world countries have. In South Africa's case it is suggested to establish at least one Nuclear Energy Research and Development Centre at such a research reactor, where almost all nuclear energy related research can be carried out on par with some of the best in the world. The purpose of this work is to propose how this could be done, and motivate why it is important that it be done with great urgency, and with full involvement of young professionals, if South Africa wishes to face up to the challenges mentioned in the Draft Strategy and Policy. (authors)

  7. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  8. Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2017-05-01

    The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

  9. The outlook for US oil dependence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

  10. Oil shale highlights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The low prices of crude oil have continued to retard the commercial development of oil shale and other syn fuels. Although research funds are more difficult to find, some R and D work by industry, academia, and governmental agencies continues in the United States and in other parts of the world. Improvements in retorting technology, upgrading oil-shale feedstock, and developing high-value niche-market products from shale oil are three notable areas of research that have been prominent for the past several years. Although the future prices of conventional crude cannot be predicted, it seems evident that diminishing supplies and a burgeoning world population will force us to turn to alternate fossil fuels as well as to cleaner sources of non-fossil energy. (author)

  11. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

  12. EnerFuture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

  13. Physics and technology for future presidents an introduction to the essential physics every world leader needs to know

    CERN Document Server

    Muller, Richard A

    2010-01-01

    Physics and Technology for Future Presidents contains the essential physics that students need in order to understand today's core science and technology issues, and to become the next generation of world leaders. From the physics of energy to climate change, and from spy technology to quantum computers, this is the only textbook to focus on the modern physics affecting the decisions of political leaders and CEOs and, consequently, the lives of every citizen. How practical are alternative energy sources? Can satellites really read license plates from space? What is the quantum physics behind i

  14. Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

  15. Lessons from two high CO2 worlds - future oceans and intensive aquaculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Robert P; Urbina, Mauricio A; Wilson, Rod W

    2017-06-01

    Exponentially rising CO 2 (currently ~400 μatm) is driving climate change and causing acidification of both marine and freshwater environments. Physiologists have long known that CO 2 directly affects acid-base and ion regulation, respiratory function and aerobic performance in aquatic animals. More recently, many studies have demonstrated that elevated CO 2 projected for end of this century (e.g. 800-1000 μatm) can also impact physiology, and have substantial effects on behaviours linked to sensory stimuli (smell, hearing and vision) both having negative implications for fitness and survival. In contrast, the aquaculture industry was farming aquatic animals at CO 2 levels that far exceed end-of-century climate change projections (sometimes >10 000 μatm) long before the term 'ocean acidification' was coined, with limited detrimental effects reported. It is therefore vital to understand the reasons behind this apparent discrepancy. Potential explanations include 1) the use of 'control' CO 2 levels in aquaculture studies that go beyond 2100 projections in an ocean acidification context; 2) the relatively benign environment in aquaculture (abundant food, disease protection, absence of predators) compared to the wild; 3) aquaculture species having been chosen due to their natural tolerance to the intensive conditions, including CO 2 levels; or 4) the breeding of species within intensive aquaculture having further selected traits that confer tolerance to elevated CO 2 . We highlight this issue and outline the insights that climate change and aquaculture science can offer for both marine and freshwater settings. Integrating these two fields will stimulate discussion on the direction of future cross-disciplinary research. In doing so, this article aimed to optimize future research efforts and elucidate effective mitigation strategies for managing the negative impacts of elevated CO 2 on future aquatic ecosystems and the sustainability of fish and shellfish

  16. Proceedings of the CIB World Building Congress 2004 : Building for the future. CD-ROM ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This conference provided an opportunity to exchange information on recent building and construction research. The main issues were arranged into the following sessions: building techniques; buildings and the environment; building processes; sustainable construction; performance based buildings and regulatory systems; revaluing construction; and, construction in developing countries. The presentations evaluated best practices in construction with reference to a wide range of topics, including heat, air and moisture transfer in buildings, roofing materials, energy conservation, building economics, urban sustainability and the future needs of the construction industry. The conference featured 40 presentations, of which 6 have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs. ,figs.

  17. Balancing functional and nutritional quality of oils and fats: Current requirements and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Bremt Karen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Oils and fats play an important role in the structure, aroma and stability of a wide variety of food products, as well as in their nutritional properties. For Puratos, a producer of ingredients for bakery, patisserie and chocolate sector, functionality and taste are of utmost importance, but the company also wants to contribute to the balanced diet of consumers. Vegetable oils and fats are used in margarines and releasing agents, vegetable creams, compound chocolate, fillings and emulsifiers. Each application requires an oil or fat with specific physicochemical properties in order to ensure the optimal structure, stability and taste of the end product. Traditionally, (partially hydrogenated vegetable oils deliver important functional characteristics concerning crystallization behaviour, directly linked with the workability, melting properties, stability and mouth feel of the food product. However, due to negative nutritional implications, trans fats are to be replaced by healthier alternatives, preferably not by saturated fats. Consumers – and in some regions, legal instances – demand transfree or hydro-free products while not compromising on taste. Alternative fats and oils will be discussed concerning their functional and nutritional properties.

  18. The Share Price and Investment: Current Footprints for Future Oil and Gas Industry Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel Jianu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The share price has become a very important indicator for shareholders, banks, and financial institutions evaluating the performance of companies. The oil and gas industry seems to be in a difficult era of development, due to the market prices for its products. Moreover, climate change and renewable energies are barriers for fossil energy. This state of affairs, and the fact that oil and gas shares are considered one of the most solid and reliable shares on the London Stock Exchange (LSE, have drawn our attention. International institutions encourage the investment in the oil and gas economic sector. This study investigates how investments of oil and gas companies in long-term assets influence the share price. Using the Ohlson share price model for a sample of 51 listed companies on the LSE proves that investments in long-term assets influence the share price in the case of companies which record losses. Investments in long-term assets are responsible for the attractiveness of the oil and gas company shares.

  19. Implications for the future and recommendations for modifications to current regulations concerning virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peri, Claudio

    1994-04-01

    Full Text Available The main conclusions of the FLAIR project can be summarized as follows:
    1. The sensory wheel set up by the FLAIR team is proposed as a European standard to evaluate the sensory profile of extra virgin olive oil.
    2. Preference studies demonstrate that the sensory profile of extra virgin olive oil should be optimized as a function of consumer expectations. Once a sensory profile has been selected, it must be used as a reference for product standardization.
    3. Sensory analysis cannot be used as a legal tool for evaluating the quality or the origin of extra virgin olive oils. It is suggested that a sensory test can only be used as a legal tool if it is applied to assess the absence of defects. This implies a modification of the COI test.
    4. The Good Manufacturing Practices set up by the Flair team are proposed as a European standard for process control and quality system certification.
    5. Nutritional studies demonstrate that extra virgin olive oil has a noticeable in vivo antioxidant activity. This activity is related to the tocopherols and phenols content of oil and is highly varietydependent.

  20. Investing for the future : Athabasca Oil Sands Trust 1998 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The Athabasca Oil Sand Trust was created in 1995 when a subsidiary of the Trust, Athabasca Oil Sands Investment Inc., acquired Alberta's 11.74 per cent working interest in the Syncrude Project, which is a joint venture involved in the mining and upgrading of bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands. The Trust is a closed-end investment trust which was created to provide an opportunity for direct public investment in Syncrude and oil sands development in northern Alberta. Syncrude, produced a record 76.7 million barrels of Syncrude Sweet Blend (SSB), and shipped its one billionth barrel on April 16, 1998. Another key achievement in 1998 was the investment the Syncrude Joint Venture Partners of almost half a billion dollars to maintain Syncrude's operations and pursue the Business Plan growth targets outlined in last year's report. By aggressively pursuing this capital investment program despite the current low oil prices, the Syncrude Joint Venture Partners expect to double SSB production to 155 million barrels per year by 2007. The Athabasca Trust's share of these capital expenditures to fuel the projected growth in production is about $ 70 million this year and the next. The report provides operating statistics on production, financial highlights and consolidated balance sheets for 1998, including operating expenditures, capital expenditures, and the usual notes to the consolidated financial statement. 10 tabs., 2 figs

  1. Oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabbri, S

    1909-11-29

    Mineral, shale, and like oils are treated successively with sulfuric acid, milk of lime, and a mixture of calcium oxide, sodium chloride, and water, and finally a solution of naphthalene in toluene is added. The product is suitable for lighting, and for use as a motor fuel; for the latter purpose, it is mixed with a light spirit.

  2. OPEC's optimal crude oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, Manfred

    2004-01-01

    OPEC decided to stabilise oil prices within a range of 22-28 US Dollar/barrel of crude oil. Such an oil-price-level is far beyond the short and long run marginal costs of oil production, beyond even that in regions with particularly high costs. Nevertheless, OPEC may achieve its goal if world demand for oil increases substantially in the future and oil resources outside the OPEC are not big enough to accordingly increase production. In this case OPEC, which controls about 78% of world oil reserves, has to supply a large share of that demand increase. If we assume OPEC will behave as a partial monopolist on the oil market, which takes into consideration the reaction of the other producers to its own sales strategy, it can reach its price target. Lower prices before 2020 are probable only if the OPEC cartel breaks up. Higher prices are possible if production outside OPEC is inelastic as assumed by some geologists, but they would probably stimulate the production of unconventional oil based on oil sand or coal. Crude oil prices above 30 US Dollar/barrel are therefore probably not sustainable for a long period. (Author)

  3. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2017-12-01

    During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

  4. Svalbard as a study model of future High Arctic coastal environments in a warming world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Piskozub

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.

  5. Biotechnology in breeding of industrial oil crops - the present status and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedt, W.

    1988-02-01

    With increasing 'overproduction' of food supplies it is frequently emphasized now that agricultural production of industrial 'non-food' raw materials should be intensified. Many adapted crop plants are already available for producing various kinds of natural materials. Particularly the large group of oil-crops could be used even more widely for providing vegetable oils. The example of rape-seed (Brassica Napus) clearly demonstrates that the composition of vegetable oil can be completely reconstructed according to the wishes of manufacturers or consumers, even by conventional breeding methods. Rapid and efficient breeding is expected by application of modern 'biotechnology'. Where variation for a character like oil-quality is limited within a crop plnt, a wide range of alien wild species is available for broadening genetic variation of plants like rapeseed, sunflower (Helianthus annuus) or linseed (flax, Linum usitatissimum). Exploration of such 'new' genetic variation is nowadays facilitated by in vitro embryo culture or cell (protoplast)-fusion techniques. Such biotechniques can help to overcome crossing barriers between species (genus Brassica). In other important oilcrops like linseed or sunflower, biotechniques can now be applied profitably. Protoplasts can be regenerated in Linum, so that asexual interspecific hybrids can principally be produced in that way. Alien species of sunflower and lineseed show a wide range of variation regarding agronomically important characters, particularly of oil composition and disease resistance. This alien genetic variation can be used for breeding new disease resistant oil-crop cultivars. Other techniques, like the 'haploidy-method' can help to accelerate a breeding programme, ultimately leading to a homozygous line or cultivar.

  6. Current status and future of developing Upper Cretaceous oil deposits in the Oktyabrskoye field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamyshnikova, A.I.; Lapshin, M.Ye.

    1979-01-01

    The Upper Cretaceous deposit at the Oktyabrskoye field was discovered in 1966. Fractured, cavernous limestone, similar to the producing rock of many Upper Cretaceous deposits of the Chechen Ingush ASSR, form the reservoir. The deposit is situated toward a narrow anticlinal fold with angles of rock drop 40-45/sup 0/. Its heighth is 950m; the average capacity of the producing part is 400m; the deposit depth is 4200-5150m; the layer temperature is 150-160/sup 0/C. Exploratory work on the deposit is incomplete. The deposit was brought under industrial development in 1974. The development is conducted based on a refined, technological system, that includes contour flooding to maintain layer pressure in the center to edge part of the deposit at 36.0 MPa. This somewhat increases the pressure of the gas saturated oil, as well as the subsequent increase in layer pressure to 45.9 MPa for assuring wide open well flow during the late stages of development. Currently, the amount of oil obtained somewhat exceeds the planned level but the pumping volume is less than that planned. The deposit has not yet been studied sufficiently. Its boundaries have not been established; the locations of the initial and working water/oil edges are conditional; the structural plan is approximate. Data on the degree of waterflooding in the deposit and the magnitude of the actual oil yield coefficient are lacking inasmuch as the amount of oil already extracted at this time exceeds the calculated reserves. To increase the effectiveness of further development of the deposit and acquisition of the necessary data for calculating oil reserves, the deposit will be studied according to a special plan over a number of new drilling wells.

  7. The Current and Future Role of Nigerian Indigenous Oil Companies in the Mature Niger Delta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David Rowlands, Spectrum Energy and Information Technology Ltd

    2002-01-01

    Over the last 10 years, there has been a steady increase in the number of successful Indigenous Oil Companies exploring for hydrocarbons in the Niger Delta. A number of these companies have already entered into partnership agreements with overseas based oil companies, however, many more are still seeking technical and financial partnership agreements with overseas based oil companies, however, many more are still seeking technical and financial partners to fulfil their licence commitments. The first exploration licence to an Indigenous Company was awarded in the mid eighties. However, it wasn't until the early nineties that the Nigerian Government's intention to privatise the oil industry gathered momentum. Between 1991 and 1993 a number of discretionary awards of acreage from various sedimentary basins in Nigeria were made to Nigerian Indigenous Companies. Many of these companies had little or no previous experience of hydrocarbon exploration.Sixteen of the Indigenous Companies have already reported discoveries in various parts of the delta, either in partnerships with foreign companies or independently. Eight of the Indigenous Companies are producing hydrocarbons. With very little production in the early 90's, the Indigenous Companies now account for over 4.5% of Nigeria's daily production. The government is intent on increasing this percentage through initiatives such as the Marginal Fields re-allocation programme, and the continued award of acreage in traditional license rounds. This paper takes a closer look at the operations and discoveries of two Indigenous Companies Solgas and Summit with the aim of providing an insight into the structure and mode of operation of typical Nigerian Indigenous Oil Companies.The more recent licensing activity in Nigeria includes the current Marginal Fields re-allocation programme and also possible participation of Nigerian companies in the join Development Zone between Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe. The paper concludes with

  8. Descriptive Analysis of Economic Diversification, Price and Revenue Dynamics in Oil and Energy in the Arab World

    OpenAIRE

    Driouchi, Ahmed; El Alouani, Hajar; Gamar, Alae

    2014-01-01

    Abstract The present paper looks at the descriptive side of the economy of oil and energy in the Arab countries. It addresses the contours of these economies in relation to diversification and trading patterns and shows the limited diversification but high concentration of exports towards oil and gas in part of these countries. The paper addresses also the dynamic processes of gas and oil revenues with their time trends. It also attempts linking revenues to international oil prices before...

  9. WORLD CUP LEGACY AND PERTAINING IMPACTS ON SÃO PAULO CITY´S FUTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Vinicius Cardoso

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Legacies – structures that are built for events and which remain after the same - are one of the major positive aspects paraded by mega sporting events organizers. This study´s purpose is to analyze the current situation of legacies promised by the many governmental instances for the city of São Paulo - host city of Fifa´s 2014 World Cup – and prospect which legacies will become effective in the city. Preliminary assessments may raise construction concerns, alert the public to keep an eye on undertaken obligations and encourage official actions (Mangan, 2008, p. 1,871. Data was obtained from National Audit Court (TCU reports, Ministry and United Nations documents, in addition to testimonials and information gathered from some of Brazil´s major press media. Data analysis was conducted by classifying legacies according to tangible and intangible legacy concepts (Kaplanidou and Karadakis, 2010 followed by an analysis of promised legacies versus current status during the period of analysis. Finally, discussions as to most probable to come about legacies were presented. Results indicate that a portion of promised legacies stand a fair chance of achievement. On the other hand, other projects lag behind schedule or have been cancelled. Preliminary surveys suggest full completion of promised legacies is not possible, there has been an overuse of public resources as opposed to that planned, and provide indicatives as to the investment´s high opportunity cost.

  10. Cord Blood Banking in the Arab World: Current Status and Future Developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Monica M; Dajani, Rana; Matthews, Kirstin R W

    2015-07-01

    Umbilical cord blood transplants are now used to treat numerous types of immune- and blood-related disorders and genetic diseases. Cord blood (CB) banks play an important role in these transplants by processing and storing CB units. In addition to their therapeutic potential, these banks raise ethical and regulatory questions, especially in emerging markets in the Arab world. In this article, the authors review CB banking in five countries in the region, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, selected for their different CB banking policies and initiatives. In assessing these case studies, the authors present regional trends and issues, including religious perspectives, policies, and demographic risk factors. This research suggests strong incentives for increasing the number of CB units that are collected from and available to Arab populations. In addition, the deficit in knowledge concerning public opinion and awareness in the region should be addressed to ensure educated decision-making. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Impact on world oil prices when larger and fewer producers emerge from a political restructuring of the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirl, F.

    1992-01-01

    We investigate how a redistribution of oil reserves among a (probably reduced) set of producers affects OPEC's oil extraction policies and thus international crude oil-prices. The empirical investigation shows that this impact is fairly small, as long as OPEC members do not cooperate. Only cooperation will have a substantial impact. (author)

  12. Peering into Alberta’s Darkening Future: How Oil Prices Impact Alberta’s Royalty Revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Dobson

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The price of oil just keeps collapsing — and the fate of Alberta’s revenues is buckling with it. Going into March 2015, it seemed as if prices might have finally found a bottom, somewhere between US$48 and US$52. By the second week of March, they began falling again, to the low forties. These are prices the Alberta government had not even ventured to fathom when first putting together its forecasts for the impact of falling oil prices on the province’s finances. Come the fourth quarter of the Alberta government’s 2014/15 fiscal year, the province’s finances will begin to really feel the blow from the plunge in oil, as royalty payments dry up significantly. Come the 2015/16 fiscal year, the situation becomes even bleaker. In fact, the current fiscal year will seem pleasant compared to the next one. Due to a stronger than expected first half of the year, actual bitumen and crude oil royalties collected in Alberta from April to September 2014 exceeded estimates by $1.3 billion. That will mitigate some of the damage that the continuing slide in prices will cause by the year’s end, with the government’s third quarter update showing expected year-end crude oil and bitumen royalty revenues falling short of the budget target by $549 million. So severe has the fall in oil prices been that, in March 2015, the number of barrels of conventional oil that the government collects in royalties could plummet by up to 53,000 barrels from the 2014/15 budget forecast, declining to just 4,100 barrels per day. This suggests that prices may be nearing a point where royalty collection from conventional crude oil production is at risk of being virtually eliminated. Bitumen royalties are not faring much better. Relative to July 2014, per barrel royalties in February 2015 have potentially declined by 60 to 90 per cent. All told, the combined effect of the changing exchange rate, lower prices, and the lower royalty rates that take effect in this low

  13. The case for conserving oil resources: the fundamentals of supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, D.B.

    2000-01-01

    This article summarises the evidence for an oil price shock and argues that oil producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC, need to cut back oil production more, in order to conserve oil for the future and to avert sudden extreme movements in oil prices in the next five-to-ten years. Four physical fundamentals determine long-run changes in oil prices: supply, demand, technology and substitutes. We show that supply, technology and substitutes are limited and demand is growing strongly. As demand pushes against supply, prices will rise rapidly. It would be better to conserve oil now, in order to have a smoother transition to higher-priced oil in the future. In addition, oil is such a valuable resource for the worlds economies in general, that we should conserve it for future generations. The world, in its haste for economic growth, should support OPEC conservation efforts. (author)

  14. The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area seagrasses: Managing this iconic Australian ecosystem resource for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Robert G.; Rasheed, Michael A.; McKenzie, Len J.; Grech, Alana; York, Paul H.; Sheaves, Marcus; McKenna, Skye; Bryant, Catherine

    2015-02-01

    The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) includes one of the world's largest areas of seagrass (35,000 km2) encompassing approximately 20% of the world's species. Mapping and monitoring programs sponsored by the Australian and Queensland Governments and Queensland Port Authorities have tracked a worrying decrease in abundance and area since 2007. This decline has almost certainly been the result of a series of severe tropical storms and associated floods exacerbating existing human induced stressors. A complex variety of marine and terrestrial management actions and plans have been implemented to protect seagrass and other habitats in the GBRWHA. For seagrasses, these actions are inadequate. They provide an impression of effective protection of seagrasses; reduce the sense of urgency needed to trigger action; and waste the valuable and limited supply of "conservation capital". There is a management focus on ports, driven by public concerns about high profile development projects, which exaggerates the importance of these relatively concentrated impacts in comparison to the total range of threats and stressors. For effective management of seagrass at the scale of the GBRWHA, more emphasis needs to be placed on the connectivity between seagrass meadow health, watersheds, and all terrestrial urban and agricultural development associated with human populations. The cumulative impacts to seagrass from coastal and marine processes in the GBRWHA are not evenly distributed, with a mosaic of high and low vulnerability areas. This provides an opportunity to make choices for future coastal development plans that minimise stress on seagrass meadows.

  15. A look at one of the world's largest apron feeder drives - Alberta Oil Sands Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Persson, O. (Hagglunds Drives Canada Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada))

    1999-01-01

    Various types of equipment to transport tar sands to processing plants are discussed, with special attention to the advantages of hydraulic direct drives over conventional electro-mechanical drives. A hydraulic direct drive such as the Hagglund Drive has exceptional starting torque capacity due to the high torque capability of the hydraulic motor. As such, it can be particularly useful in applications where shock loads occur with some frequency, or where many starts and stops are needed. Application of the Hagglund drive to power one of the world's largest apron feeders in the Alberta Oil Sands is described as an illustration of the exceptional reliability, productivity and performance of this equipment. It has about one five-hundredth of the inertia of an equivalent high speed drive with gear reducer, a feature which is particularly significant in the case of feeders which are known to suffer much downtime due to chain related problems. These types of drives have also been used to great advantage in the process industries like pulp and paper, chemical, rubber and plastics, recycling and steel. 1 tab., 1 fig.

  16. World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP): the 50th anniversary in 2013--history, achievements, and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckert, J

    2013-08-01

    In 2013 the World Association for the Advancement of Veterinary Parasitology (WAAVP) can celebrate its 50th anniversary. At this occasion in this article selected historical data are updated, and the achievements and future perspectives of the WAAVP are discussed. Although the WAAVP is a small association with only a few hundred members, it has been able to develop remarkable activities. Between 1963 and 2011 the WAAVP has organized 23 international scientific congresses, and the 24th conference will take place in Perth, Western Australia, in 2013. These conferences have achieved a high degree of international recognition as indicated by relatively large numbers of participants (up to ~800). Furthermore, the WAAVP has promoted veterinary parasitology in various ways, such as publishing international guidelines (efficacy evaluation of antiparasitic drugs, parasitological methods, standardized nomenclature of animal parasitic diseases "SNOAPAD"), stimulating international discussions on teaching and continued education ("colleges of veterinary parasitology") and by supporting the high quality journal "Veterinary Parasitology" which is the official organ of the WAAVP. In retrospect, the development of the WAAVP can be classified as very successful. New challenges associated with global changes (growth of the world population, urbanization, climate change, new developments in animal and plant production, etc.) will require new efforts in research in various fields, including veterinary parasitology. Future activities of WAAVP may include inter alia: (a) support of international parasitological networks; (b) stimulation of coordinated research aimed at the solution of defined problems; (c) increasing the exposure of WAAVP to parasitology from hitherto neglected regions of the world; (d) strengthening of official links to international organizations (FAO, WHO, etc.); (e) continuation of guideline preparation; and (d) preparation and international distribution of high

  17. Future oil production in Brazil-Estimates based on a Hubbert model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szklo, Alexandre; Machado, Giovani; Schaeffer, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    This paper forecasts oil production in Brazil, according to the Hubbert model and different probabilities for adding reserves. It analyzes why the Hubbert model might be more appropriate to the Brazilian oil industry than that of Hotelling, as it implicitly emphasizes the impacts of information and depletion on the derivative over time of the accumulated discoveries. Brazil's oil production curves indicate production peaks with a time lag of more than 15 years, depending on the certainty (degree of information) associated with the reserves. Reserves with 75% certainty peak at 3.27 Mbpd in 2020, while reserves with 50% certainty peak at 3.28 Mbpd in 2028, and with 30% certainty peak at 3.88 Mbpd in 2036. These findings show that Brazil oil industry is in a stage where the positive impacts of information on expanding reserves (mainly through discoveries) may outstrip the negative impacts of depletion. The still limited number of wells drilled by accumulated discoveries also explain this assertion. Being a characteristic of frontier areas such as Brazil, this indicates the need for ongoing exploratory efforts

  18. A virtual observatory in a real world: building capacity for an uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Gordon; Buytaert, Wouter; Emmett, Bridget; Freer, Jim; Gurney, Robert; Haygarth, Phil; McDonald, Adrian; Rees, Gwyn; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

    2010-05-01

    Environmental managers and policy makers face a challenging future trying to accommodate growing expectations of environmental well-being, while subject to maturing regulation, constrained budgets and a public scrutiny that expects easier and more meaningful access. To support such a challenge requires new tools and new approaches. The VO is a new initiative from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) designed to deliver proof of concept for these new tools and approaches. The VO is at an early stage and we first evaluate the role of existing ‘observatories' in the UK and elsewhere both to learn good practice (and just as valuable - errors) and to define boundaries. A series of exemplar ‘big catchment science questions' are posed - distinguishing between science and society positions - and the prospects for their solution are assessed. The VO vision of being driven by these questions is outlined as are the seven key ambitions namely: i. being driven by the need to contribute to the solution of major environmental issues that impinge on, or link to, catchment science ii. having the flexibility and adaptability to address future problems not yet defined or fully clarified iii. being able to communicate issues and solutions to a range of audiences iv. supporting easy access by a variety of users v. drawing meaningful information from data and models and identifying the constraints on application in terms of errors, uncertainties, etc vi. adding value and cost effectiveness to current investigations by supporting transfer and scale adjustment thus limiting the repetition of expensive field monitoring addressing essentially the same issues in varying locations vii. promoting effective interfacing of robust science with a variety of end users by using terminology or measures familiar to the user (or required by regulation), including financial and carbon accounting, whole life or fixed period costing, risk as probability or as disability adjusted life years

  19. Future role of oil and natural gas in OPEC and non-OPEC regions up to and beyond the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Oil and Natural Gas are very much interrelated. They are both discovered in sedimentary basins and exist in nature in equilibrium under reservoir conditions deep inside the earth. In many cases, they are found associated with each other in the same reservoir rocks, and hence the name 'petroleum' is used to indicate both oil and natural gas. Their ultimate resources in nature are always comparable. It is, therefore, not surprising to find a close link between the price of natural gas and that of crude oil. It must be stated, however, that this parallel between oil and natural gas has its limits, since natural gas, unlike crude oil, is far from being an international commodity that could benefit from international trade on a global scale. In order to project the future role of oil and natural gas, it is essential to consider their past and present performances in the primary energy mix. (author)

  20. Critical role of Middle East in world petroleum supply and demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riva, J.P., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The location, production, and transportation of oil consumed in the world each day is of vital importance to good international relationships. Since most of the remaining world's oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf, the region's critical role in the future is accordingly over-emphasized